Hello Internet

H.I. #71: Trolley Problem

 

  the kind of thing like out is actually [TS]

  worse than doing nothing [TS]

  yeah but because you're not thinking [TS]

  about it in the right way you're not [TS]

  gonna like hearing it though because the [TS]

  first time a self-driving car does [TS]

  swerve to protect its occupant and mows [TS]

  down even one pedestrian you're gonna [TS]

  have one heck of a loss so it's not even [TS]

  going to be like a trial or reflexes and [TS]

  we're going to be actually going through [TS]

  the code of what the car did and that [TS]

  code is going to be directly attributed [TS]

  to the people who created the code so [TS]

  when it gets to court we're going to be [TS]

  able to look at exactly why the decision [TS]

  was made what the prioritizing was that [TS]

  deliberately drove here and did that so [TS]

  it's gonna be messy [TS]

  yeah but i'm still willing to bats that [TS]

  the simpler crash avoidance code is the [TS]

  better option [TS]

  the simpler thing of don't try to do [TS]

  complicated things with swerving just [TS]

  break right and just break away faster [TS]

  than human ever could [TS]

  that solves 99.999% of your interactions [TS]

  and the idea of the car [TS]

  taking evasive action becomes a much [TS]

  more complicated scenario I'm great this [TS]

  is the whole debate but of course [TS]

  there's not ever going to be any [TS]

  controversy where cars just told to [TS]

  break the controversy starts when you [TS]

  start telling the car to swerve break [TS]

  laws to preserve life to drive on a [TS]

  footpath to stop a person smashing into [TS]

  the rocks that fell off the mountain [TS]

  right that this is where the decision [TS]

  needs to be made there's you know if we [TS]

  just make a blanket decision just break [TS]

  and hope you don't hit don't hit too [TS]

  fast that's easy [TS]

  whoo-hoo and the only person at risk is [TS]

  then the person in the car [TS]

  the controversy comes when there's a [TS]

  third parties who were just innocent [TS]

  bystanders who suddenly put at risk [TS]

  because of the way the car was coded [TS]

  this is where the whole controversy [TS]

  comes in someone who was just there [TS]

  having an ice cream on the side of the [TS]

  road but because a cast swerve to avoid [TS]

  the brachs they get run over and the [TS]

  person in the car is still alive and the [TS]

  people who coded the car or well and [TS]

  good and some person who was not even [TS]

  involved in this whole scenario is now [TS]

  dead right I understand exactly what [TS]

  you're saying i am saying though that [TS]

  the more complicated collision-avoidance [TS]

  software [TS]

  just the trolley problem kind of stuff [TS]

  ya might be more harmful than the [TS]

  simpler collision software you're saying [TS]

  cars should not be allowed to swerve [TS]

  they should hit the brakes and see what [TS]

  happens and if we start putting swerve [TS]

  abilities in onto the sidewalk to do [TS]

  something clever which you could [TS]

  conceivably do you saying don't let the [TS]

  cars do that but don't have that as part [TS]

  of the cars programming I'm not trying [TS]

  to prescribe this scenario like what [TS]

  should or should not that the car be [TS]

  allowed to do i'm simply saying like the [TS]

  more you try to imagine the car making [TS]

  more and more complex decisions [TS]

  including factoring in the number of [TS]

  people who are around that it's going to [TS]

  plow into i'm suspecting the higher [TS]

  probability you have like a false [TS]

  positive and the car does something [TS]

  unexpected and causes loss of life that [TS]

  wouldn't have otherwise that's a cop-out [TS]

  I think you're copping out great because [TS]

  deciding to not code the car to make a [TS]

  more complex decision like swerving up [TS]

  onto the sidewalk is still a decision [TS]

  you still decided to leave the line of [TS]

  code out so you still either condemned [TS]

  the person in the car to death by [TS]

  leaving out the line of code or [TS]

  condemned pedestrians to death by [TS]

  putting the line of code in this to me [TS]

  come to the core like what computer code [TS]

  is though like the fewer lines of code [TS]

  is a better thing there's fewer problems [TS]

  that can arise on average like the less [TS]

  code that you actually have there's less [TS]

  room for mistake so again to come back [TS]

  to my question to help me understand [TS]

  your position then let's call it the [TS]

  swerve line of code [TS]

  this is the line of code that gives a [TS]

  car the extra option that if it thinks [TS]

  the breaking won't work [TS]

  it's still going to hit the boulder you [TS]

  can activate the swerve option to swerve [TS]

  line of code are you saying don't put [TS]

  the swerve line of code in because [TS]

  that's making it more complicated to use [TS]

  your way of speaking and therefore is [TS]

  not in keeping with what you're [TS]

  advocating so you're saying don't put [TS]

  the swerve line of code in here is where [TS]

  I am mentally drawing this line [TS]

  yeah I am ok with adding a collision [TS]

  avoidance mechanism that's where [TS]

  I was out of the way of the boulder yeah [TS]

  right what I think crosses into the [TS]

  territory of now you're looking for a [TS]

  one-in-a-million type accidents is also [TS]

  then adding an additional layer on top [TS]

  which is trying to calculate like you [TS]

  can swerve to avoid the boulder but you [TS]

  also want to be looking for [TS]

  are there a bunch of other people who [TS]

  are standing in the road for some reason [TS]

  where you wouldn't expect them to be and [TS]

  then if there are count up how many [TS]

  people there are there and figure out [TS]

  how many people are in the car and then [TS]

  make a decision about whether or not [TS]

  you're going straight or not like I [TS]

  guess where my mental boundary is is I [TS]

  feel like what would i say simpler is [TS]

  better is I mean the car can drive [TS]

  anywhere where there are not things in [TS]

  the way right whatever mechanism it uses [TS]

  for things in the way [TS]

  ok and break and drive where things [TS]

  aren't and I think like that algorithm [TS]

  covers almost every accidents you could [TS]

  possibly imagine the thing that [TS]

  irritates me is the additional moral [TS]

  machine of like also be looking at all [TS]

  of the people and making calculations [TS]

  about what is the most moral thing to do [TS]

  that to me seems to go into crazy land [TS]

  of one-in-a-million kind of accidents [TS]

  that are going to be incredibly rare [TS]

  okay I can see why this is quicksand he [TS]

  to get drawn in pretty quickly too but I [TS]

  think I kind of understand where you're [TS]

  coming from [TS]

  yeah that's all I'm saying is like car [TS]

  can drive where objects are not do not [TS]

  distinguish between what objects are [TS]

  just leave it at that otherwise this is [TS]

  playing in fantasy land of incredibly [TS]

  unlikely accidents and the possibility [TS]

  of error and false positives that causes [TS]

  the carts were when you wouldn't expect [TS]

  it to our greater than the number of [TS]

  accidents that you're going to prevent [TS]

  our lives that you're going to save from [TS]

  adding in trolley problem stuff i think [TS]

  there you have designed more oka not [TS]

  monster car because if your car puts the [TS]

  same Valley on [TS]

  a pedestrian standing somewhere as it [TS]

  does a huge concrete pole that's just an [TS]

  object don't hit objects then I think [TS]

  your car is a probably are [TS]

  it's going to be hard to upset people [TS]

  it's only when the cast is having to [TS]

  identify the difference between a brick [TS]

  wall and Bill blogs that you start [TS]

  getting into difficult territory i think [TS]

  that we're in agreement [TS]

  fantastic we haven't done Brady's paper [TS]

  cuts for a while I have a very fast [TS]

  growing list i feel like this is the [TS]

  introduction to every Brady's papercuts [TS]

  is you sayin we haven't done paper cuts [TS]

  in a while trying to ease you into it [TS]

  because I don't want you to think it's [TS]

  like taking over the podcast if i keep [TS]

  saying that it right the idea in your [TS]

  head that it is occasional then you go [TS]

  okay yeah getting educational yeah I'm [TS]

  have one you're playing mind tricks on [TS]

  me I know what's occurring here your [TS]

  putty in my hands gray you're quite the [TS]

  snake charmer brady and you get into [TS]

  this paper cut corner [TS]

  I think we do a paper corner i have [TS]

  three so now we're tied into it yeah [TS]

  exactly like unless you do some very [TS]

  intricate editing you have to put all [TS]

  three in there [TS]

  here's the thing that I want to get on [TS]

  the record right yeah future listeners [TS]

  of the podcast Brady may at some point [TS]

  say something like oh there's two things [TS]

  we want to talk about three things we [TS]

  want to talk about and I made you know [TS]

  what I'm just going to leave it in there [TS]

  and then there's only going to be the [TS]

  one thing i'm just i'm not even going to [TS]

  try to cut around that anymore because I [TS]

  just gotta push back against your [TS]

  encroachment and they'll think that like [TS]

  I've been forgetful another operator you [TS]

  forgot to mention the second thing when [TS]

  in fact I spoke about it for two hours [TS]

  yeah and out it comes so let's run [TS]

  through ready your three paper cuts the [TS]

  first paper cut people using [TS]

  speakerphone in public places when [TS]

  they're talking to people on either [TS]

  phone calls or facetime it should be [TS]

  legal to shoot those people that's as [TS]

  far as I'm concerned [TS]

  don't do that [TS]

  I didn't say that it was legal no no I'm [TS]

  not saying don't shoot them are doing [TS]

  don't you have a fine i am also saying [TS]

  don't shoot okay I'm saying don't go on [TS]

  speakerphone because grace right it is [TS]

  infuriating [TS]

  this is actually when apple announced [TS]

  the new iphone one of the things I was [TS]

  frowning the hardest at was like oh and [TS]

  we've added an additional speaker so it [TS]

  can be twice as loud as like oh no right [TS]

  here we go [TS]

  already I can imagine all the people on [TS]

  the bus and everywhere else in public [TS]

  who seem to think that it's okay to be [TS]

  on speakerphone or playing music in [TS]

  public the playing music thing is [TS]

  infuriating and you shouldn't do that to [TS]

  like I don't accept and when someone [TS]

  gets on the train [TS]

  listening to music on their phone really [TS]

  loud i think that's obnoxious and they [TS]

  should be slapped em but there's [TS]

  something about the personal [TS]

  conversations on speakerphone in public [TS]

  places that's even weirder because [TS]

  you're sort of hearing these personal [TS]

  conversations it's like you're being [TS]

  like a creepy eavesdropper right you [TS]

  don't even want to be a creepy [TS]

  eavesdropper it's like I don't even want [TS]

  to hear this don't make me hear you [TS]

  talking about this personal stuff [TS]

  wow I'm sorry Brady doesn't it fit my [TS]

  next one and this is something that I [TS]

  could talk for a long time about [TS]

  australian television and Australian [TS]

  news and the things about that annoy me [TS]

  after the past few weeks but i will pick [TS]

  just one [TS]

  ok and the one is the misuse of the word [TS]

  allegedly because I think journalists [TS]

  always think that using the word [TS]

  allegedly gives them this cloak of [TS]

  invincibility [TS]

  yeah isn't that a get-out-of-jail-free [TS]

  card for all accusations yeah exactly [TS]

  and of course that's not true but [TS]

  journalists like to do it they think if [TS]

  they say allegedly you know he allegedly [TS]

  murdered someone right that's okay fair [TS]

  enough [TS]

  that's a different discussion but the [TS]

  thing i don't like is they use it in the [TS]

  wrong way at the wrong time like they [TS]

  will say the person was allegedly found [TS]

  dead in the house man now Billy blog has [TS]

  been accused of murder when there is no [TS]

  doubt the person has been found dead in [TS]

  the house that's like the fact and it's [TS]

  the murder that is the allegation so I [TS]

  don't like it when people say allegedly [TS]

  in front of things that are patiently [TS]

  fat [TS]

  that's because they don't know where [TS]

  they're supposed to put the allegedly if [TS]

  a man is found dead with stab wounds [TS]

  he's found dead with stab wounds who now [TS]

  who stabbed him and how it was done [TS]

  that's all the allegedly stuff that's [TS]

  what you put the allegedly in front if [TS]

  you don't have to say allegedly in front [TS]

  of things that are obviously facts [TS]

  ok so like a reporter's believe that [TS]

  allegedly is a word that gets them out [TS]

  of trouble [TS]

  yeah there should always be a bias to [TS]

  say that word sooner and more frequently [TS]

  than appropriate because the downsides [TS]

  using the word allegedly wrong is Brady [TS]

  gets annoyed right but the upside is [TS]

  they feel like they've covered [TS]

  themselves for anything that might be [TS]

  possibly wrong [TS]

  no but you start to look stupid like if [TS]

  you say a plane was allegedly flown into [TS]

  the World Trade Center right like you [TS]

  look like an idiot because there's no [TS]

  allegation there's nothing to be proved [TS]

  or disproved unless you're a real [TS]

  nutcase you're actually going to find [TS]

  people who will disagree with you on [TS]

  that one email Brady clearly that [TS]

  happened now who did it and why they did [TS]

  it and how they did it [TS]

  that's where all the allegation start [TS]

  because that's where investigation needs [TS]

  to be done [TS]

  who but like the incident happened who [TS]

  the car crash happened and someone died [TS]

  that would be there is no allegation [TS]

  necessary I know what you're saying but [TS]

  I think if I was a reporter on TV I [TS]

  would sprinkle allegedly all over the [TS]

  place allegedly supposedly an hour every [TS]

  other sentence just well having worked [TS]

  in the media in Australia and in the UK [TS]

  in the UK where I think they know what [TS]

  they're doing with that going back to [TS]

  Australia this time after having not [TS]

  seen it for four years I felt they [TS]

  looked silly didn't feel like amateur [TS]

  hour is that what you're saying it felt [TS]

  like they didn't know what they were [TS]

  doing and I would just dropping it in [TS]

  everywhere because they didn't know and [TS]

  you know when you see professionals [TS]

  using it properly [TS]

  fair enough but this was silly it [TS]

  papercut me gray Freddie doesn't want [TS]

  his fax allegedly he wants them actually [TS]

  the final one [TS]

  this is a little bit nation it really [TS]

  got me during the Olympics but I just [TS]

  have to mention it because even though [TS]

  the Olympics are over the BBC are [TS]

  persisting with this program they're [TS]

  reading called get inspired [TS]

  oh my god that sounds awful yeah [TS]

  it pertains to sport and the thing is [TS]

  they're trying to get people to [TS]

  participate in sport i guess it's one of [TS]

  these things where they can say we're [TS]

  helping make Britain's healthier by [TS]

  getting them to exercise more love to [TS]

  see some numbers on that and so they're [TS]

  trying to hashtag get inspired people [TS]

  all the time who I am and usually it was [TS]

  no we're going to the archery where [TS]

  someone from Britain has just won a gold [TS]

  medal in the 20-metre archery shoot and [TS]

  i'll show you the highlights and [TS]

  afterwards they'll say you know by the [TS]

  way [TS]

  hashtag get inspired why don't you go to [TS]

  our website and will show you where all [TS]

  the archery clubs are in your local area [TS]

  mmm and it just infiltrated the Olympics [TS]

  something terribly and I thought okay at [TS]

  least it's over now but they're still [TS]

  doing it and it's kind of annoying when [TS]

  you're watching sport to then be [TS]

  reminded that you know you don't play [TS]

  the sport you should play the sport you [TS]

  should get fit [TS]

  it's like shut up man its gonna watch [TS]

  this poor you don't have to know about [TS]

  me sitting on the couch eating chips [TS]

  okay we're like wait a minute is that [TS]

  whatever is brady going with is that [TS]

  like some are always i feel like i'm in [TS]

  this fog of a story trying to figure [TS]

  like we're gonna slap the thing that [TS]

  really bothers you is you feel like the [TS]

  TV is judging you for the cat that [TS]

  doesn't know any but that's not the part [TS]

  that annoys me the part that annoys me [TS]

  is the worthy in a silver it's the whole [TS]

  house and this other it's not enough [TS]

  just to show sport and let us watch the [TS]

  Olympics the BBC Hester and you know I [TS]

  don't like being a baby sea bass sure i [TS]

  worked there for many years and other [TS]

  maybe say but the baby C can be a bit [TS]

  guilty of having to make everything [TS]

  worthy and everything like wholesome and [TS]

  have a good cause to her and sometimes [TS]

  you just want to watch the sport and [TS]

  think that was awesome you don't want to [TS]

  then be told by the way that's all get [TS]

  inspired all jump on the penis bus [TS]

  together and go and get fit [TS]

  it's not that I feel like they're [TS]

  judging me and making me feel like a [TS]

  slob [TS]

  it's the goody-two-shoes and summer it's [TS]

  just laid on a bit thick for me it's a [TS]

  paper cut [TS]

  well the thing with this the hashtag [TS]

  campaign which is talking about like oh [TS]

  the BBC knows what they're doing they [TS]

  certainly don't know what they're doing [TS]

  with picking hashtags because [TS]

  hashtag get inspired is so broad like of [TS]

  course other people are going to be [TS]

  using it i'm looking through twitter [TS]

  right now and it seems like hashtag get [TS]

  inspired used for many things [TS]

  it's not just use for the BBC so [TS]

  scrolling through here there are many [TS]

  many other things that people want to [TS]

  use hashtag get inspired for so BBC you [TS]

  done a terrible job of picking a hashtag [TS]

  of course somebody else is going to have [TS]

  that that's no good and got us some of [TS]

  these things dumb inspiration is so so [TS]

  worthless is a half-life of three [TS]

  minutes [TS]

  that's what annoys me gray not that they [TS]

  know that I'm eating chips while i watch [TS]

  the actually it's the whole poster of an [TS]

  eagle with saw written on it on the [TS]

  office it's the hashtag equivalent of [TS]

  that [TS]

  yeah it totally is i cannot imagine if [TS]

  you actually interview elite athletes or [TS]

  anybody who is elite at anything that [TS]

  they actually everyday wake up and feel [TS]

  genuinely inspired I don't think that's [TS]

  how people become professional sports [TS]

  players if you are relying on [TS]

  inspiration to get you off of your couch [TS]

  right in the chips out of your mouth and [TS]

  haha onto the jousting court like I [TS]

  don't think that's really going to work [TS]

  in the long run like if you have to be [TS]

  inspired every morning for that to [TS]

  happen like that's not how this works [TS]

  that's not how many think works [TS]

  inspiration dumb and worthless this [TS]

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  squarespace for supporting the show you [TS]

  know what we're about to talk about [TS]

  breaks it here ok and i find this [TS]

  interesting because you and I spoke [TS]

  about a bit probably less on the podcast [TS]

  because between each other we speak [TS]

  about breaks a quiet beforehand just [TS]

  over you know at the public something [TS]

  before the vote blue ice room and then [TS]

  just before it happened after happened I [TS]

  suddenly got really passionate about it [TS]

  i got really fired up about it and it [TS]

  really affected me for a while and now [TS]

  I'm kind of over and I've moved on but [TS]

  it was like only now are you beginning [TS]

  to get really like interested in that I [TS]

  wouldn't say passionate because you know [TS]

  there aren't that many things that i [TS]

  would describe you as passionate about [TS]

  but he's looking here at the show notes [TS]

  so let's see that list okay because all [TS]

  these bullet points and all these things [TS]

  and suddenly like it's like the giant [TS]

  has awoken and you've just realized it [TS]

  happened I know you made a video about [TS]

  you know you were quite aware it was [TS]

  happening up but it's like you're firing [TS]

  up about it now is that right [TS]

  no that's not right I'm not fired up [TS]

  about it this is I think a funny side [TS]

  effect of since in that video you [TS]

  mentioned I kind of went public on the [TS]

  record with a guess about the future [TS]

  with some probabilities [TS]

  yeah I find myself suddenly much more [TS]

  invested in seeing what happens like I [TS]

  really want to know what is going to be [TS]

  the end result of this okay because I've [TS]

  gone on record saying here's my probable [TS]

  outcomes for you know what's going to [TS]

  occur with this breakfast thing so you [TS]

  feel like you're on the hook of it yeah [TS]

  I feel like I'm on the hook a bit and [TS]

  it's just like I think like i said when [TS]

  i first did that breakfast video I for a [TS]

  while I just didn't really think about [TS]

  this topic I didn't find it super [TS]

  engaging but I find a lot of the post [TS]

  stuff way more interesting because we're [TS]

  in this bizarre no rules land [TS]

  nobody knows there's no clear guidance [TS]

  on anything that makes to me like what [TS]

  actually occurs much more interesting in [TS]

  a way it's all up in the air in my view [TS]

  there's some kind of like power grab [TS]

  going on or like this stuff happening [TS]

  behind the scenes like who knows what [TS]

  it's impossible to see the clear path [TS]

  and so that's why I find this kind of [TS]

  interesting note let's do a great what [TS]

  are some of the points here that I've [TS]

  been catching your eye on the last [TS]

  couple weeks [TS]

  the main thing I want to talk about is [TS]

  like this timeline that i think is kind [TS]

  of interesting so when Rex it occurred [TS]

  the vote happened couple months ago now [TS]

  and from then until now it's been all [TS]

  quiet on the western front and I've been [TS]

  making some jokey tweets between then [TS]

  and now about like haven't heard [TS]

  anything about this breaks it's like [TS]

  everybody put their heads down and for a [TS]

  while it seemed like they were just [TS]

  trying to pretend that it didn't happen [TS]

  as I wonder what's going to happen but [TS]

  just in the past couple weeks it to me [TS]

  it seems like the brexit creature has [TS]

  woken up and now there are things [TS]

  possibly occurring [TS]

  yeah and it all started with Theresa May [TS]

  the British Prime Minister giving a [TS]

  little speech about two weeks ago saying [TS]

  that Rex it was definitely for sures [TS]

  100-percent for real going to happen by [TS]

  the end of march by which they mean [TS]

  they're actually going to invoke Article [TS]

  50 and start the two year long process [TS]

  by which breaks that will occur [TS]

  yeah by the end of March even the [TS]

  obvious [TS]

  people in Europe watch the news so they [TS]

  know what's coming [TS]

  this is the official notification to [TS]

  Europe that we're leaving the club and [TS]

  as soon as you do that soon as you give [TS]

  the official notification you're out of [TS]

  the club in two years no matter what so [TS]

  if you haven't got your ducks in a row [TS]

  and all your new treaties and agreements [TS]

  in place by then you're out on your own [TS]

  so you've got this two-year mad rush to [TS]

  have all your right reasons in place [TS]

  before you are out of the club right [TS]

  that's what occurs and have to figure [TS]

  out everything in those two years and I [TS]

  just find myself constantly speculating [TS]

  like I don't know what's occurring [TS]

  welcome to the United Kingdom never [TS]

  stood you have it but I've never be like [TS]

  I keep trying to play this game of the [TS]

  sort of like what i was doing in that [TS]

  first video of I think people let's just [TS]

  say they overvalue the influence that [TS]

  citizens and their desires have on the [TS]

  actual mechanisms of power i think that [TS]

  the people in power do things that the [TS]

  citizens want when it is convenient and [TS]

  not when it is inconvenient and so this [TS]

  is why i like the breakfast thing I find [TS]

  super interesting and even though like [TS]

  okay so Theresa May comes out and she [TS]

  says invoke Article 50 by the end of [TS]

  March all i hear is but not yet right [TS]

  like we could invoke Article 50 right [TS]

  now but later and to me this seems like [TS]

  it looks like it's another stalling [TS]

  tactic but I can't figure out like I'm [TS]

  trying to look deep into Reese amazed [TS]

  eyes when she's giving a speech like [TS]

  what's going on in that head Theresa May [TS]

  like what's the sum of the force diagram [TS]

  of influences upon you i can tell you [TS]

  what they are [TS]

  what do you think they are what do you [TS]

  think they are they are remain in power [TS]

  for as long as possible and get [TS]

  reelected of course [TS]

  yeah that's what's going on that's what [TS]

  every politician wants stay in power as [TS]

  long as possible so what I mean they're [TS]

  like what's the influence upon her is [TS]

  like what is especially because of the [TS]

  weird way that the UK government works [TS]

  with the Prime Minister is not elected [TS]

  directly like I just don't know what it [TS]

  is that she wants [TS]

  I try to look at actions as opposed to [TS]

  words and even though the government has [TS]

  come out and has sounded pretty Rex it [TS]

  is definitely going to happen we're [TS]

  going to follow the will of the people [TS]

  which is so clear from the election it [TS]

  still looks to me like it's just [TS]

  stalling [TS]

  I just I can't help but see continued [TS]

  stalling I mean I'm not telling you [TS]

  anything you don't know here of course [TS]

  but the reason it's incredibly [TS]

  complicated because without simple to [TS]

  say she wants to stay in Paris long as [TS]

  possible and get reelected [TS]

  mmm the things that affect that have [TS]

  multiple interests the people the [TS]

  majority of people want to leave a you [TS]

  that's what they voted for as [TS]

  unbelievable as that is to me that's [TS]

  what they voted for who she also has a [TS]

  lot of interests within the party she [TS]

  has to balance of course then she also [TS]

  has the business world she has to [TS]

  balance which overall doesn't want to [TS]

  come out of the way you are responsible [TS]

  for all the money she needs to get [TS]

  reelected look so the thing she needs to [TS]

  do to stay in power is figure out who to [TS]

  placate and how much that's the [TS]

  difficult thing she has I don't think [TS]

  she has a particularly firm belief on I [TS]

  think her beliefs like most politicians [TS]

  are probably quite flexible depending on [TS]

  what's expedient and in their best [TS]

  interests but unfortunately all the [TS]

  people she's having to placate to [TS]

  achieve her ends also all have very [TS]

  different interests here so delaying to [TS]

  match is probably a little bit of giving [TS]

  yourself more time you might imagine [TS]

  matches also there's probably a lot of [TS]

  business and bureaucratic reasons for [TS]

  that you don't want to do something [TS]

  right before Christmas when everyone's [TS]

  leaving you don't want to do some whose [TS]

  early in the new year because everyone's [TS]

  on holidays and matches probably just [TS]

  when any business would make a big [TS]

  decision or do some big bureaucratic [TS]

  process like invoking article 15 so I [TS]

  wouldn't read too much into march as a [TS]

  delaying tactic i think once it was [TS]

  decided it wasn't going to be done this [TS]

  year which was pretty much decided the [TS]

  day after the election [TS]

  it was always going to be match it's [TS]

  interesting to hear you say I guess my [TS]

  take on it though is still like the [TS]

  thing that occurs is simply the start of [TS]

  a countdown clock it's not like over if [TS]

  we do it in november we've got to get in [TS]

  all those trade deals before Christmas [TS]

  right it's like you still you're still [TS]

  looking at something that's incredibly [TS]

  far away I can see what you're saying [TS]

  that but why start the clock now when [TS]

  you're gonna have five months of a [TS]

  fellow period where all the bureaucrats [TS]

  are all going on holidays and having [TS]

  Christmas often January when they can't [TS]

  do deals with anyone and you know Europe [TS]

  goes to sleep over that period as well [TS]

  so like why waste clock time [TS]

  why waste the shot clock on five months [TS]

  that your current user it makes sense to [TS]

  start the shot clock and match so you [TS]

  can hit the ground running [TS]

  I think that is totally fair in her [TS]

  speech I couldn't help but notice that [TS]

  she kept using the phrase like we will [TS]

  invoke Article 50 by the end of march as [TS]

  long as there are no unnecessary delays [TS]

  currently what is it unnecessary delay [TS]

  right those two words are the thing upon [TS]

  which all of this hinges now doesn't [TS]

  like what is an unnecessary delay who [TS]

  gets to decide what is it unnecessary [TS]

  delay and the other thing that I think [TS]

  is kind of interesting about this is [TS]

  what looks to me is almost like a little [TS]

  power grab [TS]

  is that Theresa May has essentially [TS]

  declared there's going to be no vote in [TS]

  Parliament's to approve this article 50 [TS]

  and vocation at the end of March this to [TS]

  me is again I find this kind of amazing [TS]

  because it's like there's no procedure [TS]

  there's no rules for this is like [TS]

  whoever got to the microphone first gets [TS]

  to just say like oh I'm Theresa May and [TS]

  I'm deciding now there's not there's not [TS]

  gonna be a vote in parliament I just had [TS]

  the power to invoke Article 50 like do [TS]

  you think we don't know we just know [TS]

  that this thing exists and someone needs [TS]

  to press the button but it's it seems [TS]

  like a crazy power grab [TS]

  where someone is able to just say like [TS]

  no I am the only person who gets to [TS]

  decide when this button is pressed there [TS]

  can be no overriding from Parliament I'm [TS]

  the decider in this in this scenario [TS]

  like I find that just absolutely [TS]

  fascinating i'm going like how this is [TS]

  unfolding it is extraordinary that the [TS]

  parliament voted on up because the [TS]

  referendum was so nebulous in this [TS]

  question though is so lacking in detail [TS]

  and now the Parliament itself is not [TS]

  even going to be told in detail either [TS]

  before it starts [TS]

  I will concede obviously someone who [TS]

  wish that we had remained them the [TS]

  remaining people like me I guess [TS]

  secretly thought maybe a vote of the [TS]

  Parliament was a fine or like get off [TS]

  the hook [TS]

  wiggle out of course for sort of hope [TS]

  and obviously that's not gonna happen [TS]

  and to resume doesn't want to happen [TS]

  because it would just cause such a mess [TS]

  because the Parliament probably would [TS]

  wiggle out of it if it could but that [TS]

  will cause so much unhappiness in the [TS]

  community that to resume will you might [TS]

  be able to get reelected possibly so it [TS]

  would just blow up in our face so I can [TS]

  see why she's doing it but it is kind of [TS]

  extraordinary that the biggest thing [TS]

  this country ever does will happen [TS]

  without the rubber stamping of the [TS]

  Parliament i know there was a referendum [TS]

  but that referendum question man that [TS]

  was like super vague as to what it means [TS]

  so like you'd hoped the rubber stamp [TS]

  would say okay we're coming out and this [TS]

  is how we're doing it but we don't even [TS]

  get to have that the people or the pilot [TS]

  never gonna have a say on what the [TS]

  nature of our breaks it is that's [TS]

  amazing that's how it's played out but [TS]

  there you go that's where it is [TS]

  absolutely astounding this declaration [TS]

  that Parliament will not vote on brexit [TS]

  that I find that an interesting piece of [TS]

  evidence that contradicts Milo maximum [TS]

  brexit prediction because it is being [TS]

  legally challenged by the way of course [TS]

  yeah it's always gonna be this but it's [TS]

  like yeah if I was Theresa May and I was [TS]

  thinking like expect right like however [TS]

  gonna back out of this you would of [TS]

  course say like oh yes we'll have the [TS]

  Parliament vote on it and we'll go right [TS]

  ahead but if she's trying to override [TS]

  the Parliament it leads me to believe [TS]

  like the sum of the forces acting upon [TS]

  her actually do want brexit to occur [TS]

  which I just I find interesting [TS]

  there's been this weird thing that's [TS]

  been on my mind which is slightly [TS]

  kidding into like conspiracy theory [TS]

  territory but i can't help but notice [TS]

  how the value of the pound keeps [TS]

  dropping like everytime Theresa May [TS]

  speaks I feel like I want a note from [TS]

  her speech writer like when is she ever [TS]

  going to give a speech and I want to be [TS]

  shorting the pound the day before that [TS]

  occurs [TS]

  I think this fantastically trivial [TS]

  detail but i think is amazing is just [TS]

  how in her first speech where she [TS]

  announced that by the end of March they [TS]

  were going to invoke article 53 made a [TS]

  reference to Britain is super strong and [TS]

  where the fifth largest economy in the [TS]

  world untie me and this speech because [TS]

  of the currency exchange rate has [TS]

  dropped down to the six largest economy [TS]

  in the world not like who [TS]

  right that's not great yeah but I wonder [TS]

  like when you think about powerful [TS]

  forces in the world it almost becomes [TS]

  like economically certain to bet against [TS]

  britain at least in the short run [TS]

  I just wonder like is there some [TS]

  incentive to kind of like be able to [TS]

  make a bunch of money by betting against [TS]

  Britain in the next two years you know [TS]

  not doing very well in the short run [TS]

  even if I said before like theoretically [TS]

  maybe an independent Britain could do [TS]

  very well I don't know but it seems like [TS]

  pretty sure that betting against the [TS]

  pound is going to be a profitable thing [TS]

  in the short run like I just don't know [TS]

  I just wonder about that but what you [TS]

  think it's got a lot for the drop [TS]

  I think it might yeah I could see the [TS]

  pounds reaching parody with the dollar [TS]

  when actual Rex it occurs when you talk [TS]

  to people they like oh the uncertainty [TS]

  about breakfast is already priced into [TS]

  the exchange rate between the dollar in [TS]

  the pound but people say that at every [TS]

  level and it doesn't matter i like [TS]

  people said that before the actual [TS]

  brexit election occurred and then of [TS]

  course you get the result in the pound [TS]

  incredibly drops and people like okay [TS]

  but don't worry the uncertainty about [TS]

  the future is built into the exchange [TS]

  rate now it's like but that when Theresa [TS]

  May give the speech like then it drops [TS]

  again and she gives another talk and the [TS]

  pound it a low against the dollar of [TS]

  like a hundred and sixty-eight years [TS]

  that's the exchange rate had not been so [TS]

  low it just seems incredible to me and I [TS]

  don't think that the uncertainty about [TS]

  brexit is priced into the pound even now [TS]

  I i really do think it could keep going [TS]

  lower and lower if the hard maximum [TS]

  breaks it actually occurs [TS]

  you think so I mean do you think it's [TS]

  not gonna drop any lower and I i think [TS]

  this is well out of my area of expertise [TS]

  to the point where I can't even like [TS]

  just say a wild podcast speculation but [TS]

  I deny nothing surprises me anymore [TS]

  nothing surprises you know now it could [TS]

  drop by fifty percent or go up by 50% [TS]

  overnight and both scenarios would make [TS]

  me go [TS]

  yeah I guess that was gonna happen like [TS]

  I'm just look I got no idea now I wake [TS]

  up every morning just go into a new site [TS]

  thinking god what spectacular political [TS]

  monstrosity cock has happened overnight [TS]

  either on this side of the Atlantic or [TS]

  the other and there's always something [TS]

  like now it's the smooth sailing this [TS]

  past year that the but smooth sailing [TS]

  now I have no idea great i mean i think [TS]

  the pound dropping is probably good for [TS]

  me [TS]

  maybe because I in dollars but then [TS]

  again I do travel a lot and like you're [TS]

  not going to Australia was more [TS]

  expensive initiative in and the price of [TS]

  things in the UK starting to go up now [TS]

  because of this exchange rate issue as [TS]

  well so you will have missed it [TS]

  probably but it's been a fuel news [TS]

  stories over the last few days all the [TS]

  big American companies are trying to put [TS]

  up the price of just everyday groceries [TS]

  in the supermarket's so it's starting to [TS]

  kind of hit people's pockets it happened [TS]

  with the pricing of a couple of apple [TS]

  products there was some speculation [TS]

  about that they were like unusually high [TS]

  priced in british pounds as like it's [TS]

  almost certainly Apple try to factor in [TS]

  the cost of the pound devaluing overtime [TS]

  yeah you know for the future for imports [TS]

  this also is a kind of funny situation [TS]

  because if I feel like since again most [TS]

  of my money comes from dollars from [TS]

  America [TS]

  I feel like them in this strange no-lose [TS]

  situation that allows me to look at it [TS]

  in in this like dispassionate way it's [TS]

  like either a dumb thing that I don't [TS]

  want to have happen doesn't happen which [TS]

  is brexit it's like okay great so we [TS]

  stay in the European Union everything is [TS]

  fine or her breaks it happened the pound [TS]

  continues to crash but it's like plants [TS]

  in some paid in dollars that's not [TS]

  that's good news for the most part it's [TS]

  it seems like it's a win-win situation [TS]

  for me personally with regard to [TS]

  practice it [TS]

  that's why i guess i can i can think [TS]

  about it without having to feel like I'm [TS]

  super-worried one way or the other about [TS]

  the scenario especially again because my [TS]

  own particular situation i don't have to [TS]

  worry about being kicked out of the UK [TS]

  whereas like I no interest in line for [TS]

  many people this is not a fun thing to [TS]

  think about but I just find myself [TS]

  constantly wondering and speculating [TS]

  about the motives and desires of the [TS]

  people in charge of this whole Oliver [TS]

  when they are given a kind of open space [TS]

  in which there are no rules about how [TS]

  this whole thing should unfold [TS]

  I can't remember your video grey I know [TS]

  you put different percentages on the [TS]

  different likelihood of things like hard [TS]

  exit and softer than what was the one [TS]

  you put the most likely hood on again [TS]

  was a soft the biggest one was the the [TS]

  non brexit brexit wish I think looks [TS]

  less and less likely overtime if I was [TS]

  doing that now i would probably revise [TS]

  that down and split the difference [TS]

  between maximum brexit and nothing at [TS]

  all occurring I think it's like my gut [TS]

  feeling right now I don't know but what [TS]

  do you think Brady i think at the time [TS]

  that your video came out I remember [TS]

  thinking that your percentages probably [TS]

  quite reasonable [TS]

  I now think it's looking like it's going [TS]

  to be a pretty hard bricks it i think [TS]

  nothing at all is almost impossible who [TS]

  everyone's painted themselves into some [TS]

  pretty firm corners now the problem was [TS]

  to resume the Prime Minister like [TS]

  famously was quite wishy-washy about [TS]

  what side she was on who he hedged their [TS]

  bets and the bricks that has been the [TS]

  making of her you know she became prime [TS]

  minister because of it [TS]

  so she's now had nailed her colours to [TS]

  the mast so I don't think she could [TS]

  realistically although I deep down I [TS]

  think maybe she was a romaine and [TS]

  publicly she was a mild remain ER now [TS]

  she can't be that unless there's some [TS]

  massive upheaval you know the people [TS]

  with all the power and our all the [TS]

  bricks [TS]

  it's gonna happen and I think it's gonna [TS]

  have to happen hard now so see what [TS]

  happens so you think heart breaks it is [TS]

  the most likely option [TS]

  yeah interesting unfortunately i do i [TS]

  would say like fifty percent had forty [TS]

  percent soft and ten percent none [TS]

  hmm what do you recommend be your [TS]

  numbers on those three just trying to [TS]

  mentally sick think like where would I [TS]

  put those numbers now i'm really not [TS]

  sure I think I happen to like sit down [TS]

  and write it out [TS]

  I just said the first numbers that came [TS]

  into my head it is not how it works in [TS]

  no small part because I'm very bad at [TS]

  something up to 100 off the topic [TS]

  ok right and seventy percent there's [TS]

  sixty percent that and forty percent [TS]

  this I don't know if I feel like maybe [TS]

  it's much closer to like an evenly [TS]

  divided pie chart in my mind of what's [TS]

  going to occur and it's also a case of I [TS]

  think it's very hard to kind of separate [TS]

  out your own personal biases of what you [TS]

  want to happen [TS]

  yeah and how you interpret the news [TS]

  results even just in this conversation [TS]

  that you slightly moved me from my [TS]

  position of Omar CH seems like hilarious [TS]

  stalling to maybe that's not [TS]

  unreasonable time to do this if you've [TS]

  already made a decision about not [TS]

  currently in the year but yeah i think [TS]

  it's interesting i do think it is also [TS]

  under the category of not surprising but [TS]

  also interesting that Scotland is [TS]

  already working on having their second [TS]

  independence referendum yeah but their [TS]

  Parliament is busy putting together a [TS]

  bill to put another vote to the Scottish [TS]

  people for what to do [TS]

  that's just total at a mess as well [TS]

  because imagine if they did have a [TS]

  independence referendum and voted in [TS]

  favor of leaving the UK under this whole [TS]

  premise of wanting to stay in Europe [TS]

  Europe is not going to keep just [TS]

  scotland i don't think it's even an [TS]

  option yet again will be voting on [TS]

  things without knowing what the options [TS]

  are but how is that going to work but [TS]

  that is going to say okay you can stay [TS]

  Scotland even over Nelson's that attack [TS]

  little Scotland up the North there [TS]

  what'd y más it is the total mass but i [TS]

  think last time I was over somewhat [TS]

  ambivalent on advising Scotland one way [TS]

  or another about how to vote even though [TS]

  I want it's got this day but I feel like [TS]

  mad Scotland if you get your second [TS]

  independence referendum [TS]

  you better take back anything though [TS]

  that advice is detrimental to my own [TS]

  interest in many ways like Scotland's [TS]

  take your independence and run think if [TS]

  if Scotland does have a second [TS]

  referendum I will be shocked if it [TS]

  doesn't pass right I'll be shocked if [TS]

  they don't say Scotland is going [TS]

  independent and we're going to try to [TS]

  stick with the EU even if we don't know [TS]

  what the EU is going to do or the EU is [TS]

  going to accept that like if I was [TS]

  living in scotland i would totally vote [TS]

  for independence you agree [TS]

  no I don't actually really know you [TS]

  think Scotland should voters day I think [TS]

  leaving now would be even more dangerous [TS]

  than it would have been for them before [TS]

  the break so vote [TS]

  don't get me wrong number amateur and [TS]

  don't get upset at me everyone because i [TS]

  don't know what i'm talking about but [TS]

  like now they would be cutting [TS]

  themselves at least before bricks if [TS]

  they cut themselves adrift in the UK [TS]

  they were still part of Europe now [TS]

  they'll be cutting themselves off from [TS]

  everything that we kind of them so far [TS]

  from Europe in my opinion and nobody cut [TS]

  himself off from the size of the UK [TS]

  they'll just become a minnow like [TS]

  they'll be just like an island I think [TS]

  it'd be really dangerous for them to not [TS]

  be part of Europe or part of the UK they [TS]

  have nothing and don't get me wrong and [TS]

  I don't have their independence and [TS]

  their freedom and bravery or Latin but I [TS]

  think those are just words in this day [TS]

  and age agent you want to be part of [TS]

  economies and things and and i think [TS]

  they could fight to stay because I think [TS]

  a lot of them will realize that's pretty [TS]

  dangerous for them to always feel I was [TS]

  just looking it up how many people live [TS]

  in Scotland ok never now but it is a 5.3 [TS]

  million people [TS]

  yeah so so they won't be part of the UK [TS]

  right [TS]

  they won't be part of Europe just be a [TS]

  nation of 5.3 million people with some [TS]

  oil [TS]

  let's put them on the chart of Nations [TS]

  5.3 million people this is comparable to [TS]

  it's actually pretty comparable to [TS]

  Norway just about the same size as [TS]

  norway norway has 5.3 million people i'm [TS]

  sure Scotland likes to think of [TS]

  themselves as a kind of Norway also [TS]

  comparable to Eritrea slovakia [TS]

  and the central african republic right [TS]

  that's the kind of ballpark of what [TS]

  Scotland would be I don't know I think I [TS]

  understand what you're saying about them [TS]

  being adrift but I is clear like I'm [TS]

  imagining the UK at least for the [TS]

  transition time is a bit like a sinking [TS]

  ship and Scotland is a bit like a [TS]

  lifeboat leaving and you know what the [TS]

  50 Scotland I say take that lifeboat see [TS]

  if you can attach yourself back to the [TS]

  EU nao I think that'd be leaving a [TS]

  sinking ship for something potentially [TS]

  worse but at least there's a chance this [TS]

  ship will get bailed out or stay afloat [TS]

  if Europe said Scotland you can stay in [TS]

  the EU then i would say vote for [TS]

  independence of course but the ease not [TS]

  going to say that you're it's not going [TS]

  to have them on just on their own [TS]

  I don't know maybe they'll do it just to [TS]

  give the middle finger to the UK but [TS]

  that would be genius funny virus in [TS]

  charge of the EU i would totally do that [TS]

  actually like I would essentially offer [TS]

  a join the EU free pass to Scotland [TS]

  Wales and London virus instructor the [TS]

  heat [TS]

  yeah come on over guys that'll teach [TS]

  anybody who wants to become independent [TS]