H.I. #71: Trolley Problem
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the kind of thing like out is actually
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worse than doing nothing
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yeah but because you're not thinking
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about it in the right way you're not
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gonna like hearing it though because the
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first time a self-driving car does
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swerve to protect its occupant and mows
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down even one pedestrian you're gonna
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have one heck of a loss so it's not even
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going to be like a trial or reflexes and
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we're going to be actually going through
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the code of what the car did and that
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code is going to be directly attributed
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to the people who created the code so
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when it gets to court we're going to be
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able to look at exactly why the decision
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was made what the prioritizing was that
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deliberately drove here and did that so
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it's gonna be messy
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yeah but i'm still willing to bats that
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the simpler crash avoidance code is the
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the simpler thing of don't try to do
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complicated things with swerving just
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break right and just break away faster
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than human ever could
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that solves 99.999% of your interactions
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and the idea of the car
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taking evasive action becomes a much
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more complicated scenario I'm great this
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is the whole debate but of course
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there's not ever going to be any
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controversy where cars just told to
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break the controversy starts when you
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start telling the car to swerve break
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laws to preserve life to drive on a
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footpath to stop a person smashing into
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the rocks that fell off the mountain
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right that this is where the decision
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needs to be made there's you know if we
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just make a blanket decision just break
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and hope you don't hit don't hit too
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fast that's easy
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whoo-hoo and the only person at risk is
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then the person in the car
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the controversy comes when there's a
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third parties who were just innocent
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bystanders who suddenly put at risk
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because of the way the car was coded
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this is where the whole controversy
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comes in someone who was just there
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having an ice cream on the side of the
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road but because a cast swerve to avoid
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the brachs they get run over and the
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person in the car is still alive and the
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people who coded the car or well and
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good and some person who was not even
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involved in this whole scenario is now
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dead right I understand exactly what
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you're saying i am saying though that
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the more complicated collision-avoidance
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just the trolley problem kind of stuff
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ya might be more harmful than the
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simpler collision software you're saying
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cars should not be allowed to swerve
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they should hit the brakes and see what
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happens and if we start putting swerve
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abilities in onto the sidewalk to do
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something clever which you could
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conceivably do you saying don't let the
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cars do that but don't have that as part
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of the cars programming I'm not trying
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to prescribe this scenario like what
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should or should not that the car be
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allowed to do i'm simply saying like the
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more you try to imagine the car making
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more and more complex decisions
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including factoring in the number of
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people who are around that it's going to
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plow into i'm suspecting the higher
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probability you have like a false
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positive and the car does something
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unexpected and causes loss of life that
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wouldn't have otherwise that's a cop-out
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I think you're copping out great because
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deciding to not code the car to make a
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more complex decision like swerving up
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onto the sidewalk is still a decision
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you still decided to leave the line of
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code out so you still either condemned
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the person in the car to death by
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leaving out the line of code or
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condemned pedestrians to death by
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putting the line of code in this to me
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come to the core like what computer code
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is though like the fewer lines of code
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is a better thing there's fewer problems
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that can arise on average like the less
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code that you actually have there's less
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room for mistake so again to come back
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to my question to help me understand
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your position then let's call it the
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swerve line of code
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this is the line of code that gives a
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car the extra option that if it thinks
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the breaking won't work
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it's still going to hit the boulder you
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can activate the swerve option to swerve
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line of code are you saying don't put
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the swerve line of code in because
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that's making it more complicated to use
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your way of speaking and therefore is
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not in keeping with what you're
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advocating so you're saying don't put
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the swerve line of code in here is where
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I am mentally drawing this line
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yeah I am ok with adding a collision
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avoidance mechanism that's where
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I was out of the way of the boulder yeah
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right what I think crosses into the
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territory of now you're looking for a
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one-in-a-million type accidents is also
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then adding an additional layer on top
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which is trying to calculate like you
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can swerve to avoid the boulder but you
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also want to be looking for
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are there a bunch of other people who
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are standing in the road for some reason
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where you wouldn't expect them to be and
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then if there are count up how many
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people there are there and figure out
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how many people are in the car and then
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make a decision about whether or not
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you're going straight or not like I
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guess where my mental boundary is is I
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feel like what would i say simpler is
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better is I mean the car can drive
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anywhere where there are not things in
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the way right whatever mechanism it uses
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for things in the way
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ok and break and drive where things
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aren't and I think like that algorithm
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covers almost every accidents you could
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possibly imagine the thing that
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irritates me is the additional moral
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machine of like also be looking at all
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of the people and making calculations
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about what is the most moral thing to do
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that to me seems to go into crazy land
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of one-in-a-million kind of accidents
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that are going to be incredibly rare
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okay I can see why this is quicksand he
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to get drawn in pretty quickly too but I
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think I kind of understand where you're
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yeah that's all I'm saying is like car
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can drive where objects are not do not
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distinguish between what objects are
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just leave it at that otherwise this is
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playing in fantasy land of incredibly
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unlikely accidents and the possibility
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of error and false positives that causes
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the carts were when you wouldn't expect
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it to our greater than the number of
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accidents that you're going to prevent
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our lives that you're going to save from
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adding in trolley problem stuff i think
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there you have designed more oka not
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monster car because if your car puts the
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a pedestrian standing somewhere as it
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does a huge concrete pole that's just an
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object don't hit objects then I think
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your car is a probably are
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it's going to be hard to upset people
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it's only when the cast is having to
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identify the difference between a brick
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wall and Bill blogs that you start
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getting into difficult territory i think
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that we're in agreement
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fantastic we haven't done Brady's paper
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cuts for a while I have a very fast
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growing list i feel like this is the
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introduction to every Brady's papercuts
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is you sayin we haven't done paper cuts
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in a while trying to ease you into it
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because I don't want you to think it's
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like taking over the podcast if i keep
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saying that it right the idea in your
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head that it is occasional then you go
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okay yeah getting educational yeah I'm
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have one you're playing mind tricks on
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me I know what's occurring here your
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putty in my hands gray you're quite the
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snake charmer brady and you get into
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this paper cut corner
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I think we do a paper corner i have
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three so now we're tied into it yeah
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exactly like unless you do some very
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intricate editing you have to put all
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here's the thing that I want to get on
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the record right yeah future listeners
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of the podcast Brady may at some point
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say something like oh there's two things
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we want to talk about three things we
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want to talk about and I made you know
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what I'm just going to leave it in there
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and then there's only going to be the
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one thing i'm just i'm not even going to
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try to cut around that anymore because I
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just gotta push back against your
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encroachment and they'll think that like
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I've been forgetful another operator you
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forgot to mention the second thing when
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in fact I spoke about it for two hours
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yeah and out it comes so let's run
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through ready your three paper cuts the
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first paper cut people using
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speakerphone in public places when
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they're talking to people on either
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phone calls or facetime it should be
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legal to shoot those people that's as
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far as I'm concerned
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I didn't say that it was legal no no I'm
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not saying don't shoot them are doing
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don't you have a fine i am also saying
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don't shoot okay I'm saying don't go on
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speakerphone because grace right it is
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this is actually when apple announced
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the new iphone one of the things I was
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frowning the hardest at was like oh and
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we've added an additional speaker so it
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can be twice as loud as like oh no right
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already I can imagine all the people on
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the bus and everywhere else in public
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who seem to think that it's okay to be
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on speakerphone or playing music in
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public the playing music thing is
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infuriating and you shouldn't do that to
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like I don't accept and when someone
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gets on the train
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listening to music on their phone really
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loud i think that's obnoxious and they
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should be slapped em but there's
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something about the personal
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conversations on speakerphone in public
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places that's even weirder because
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you're sort of hearing these personal
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conversations it's like you're being
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like a creepy eavesdropper right you
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don't even want to be a creepy
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eavesdropper it's like I don't even want
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to hear this don't make me hear you
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talking about this personal stuff
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wow I'm sorry Brady doesn't it fit my
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next one and this is something that I
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could talk for a long time about
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australian television and Australian
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news and the things about that annoy me
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after the past few weeks but i will pick
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ok and the one is the misuse of the word
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allegedly because I think journalists
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always think that using the word
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allegedly gives them this cloak of
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yeah isn't that a get-out-of-jail-free
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card for all accusations yeah exactly
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and of course that's not true but
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journalists like to do it they think if
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they say allegedly you know he allegedly
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murdered someone right that's okay fair
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that's a different discussion but the
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thing i don't like is they use it in the
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wrong way at the wrong time like they
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will say the person was allegedly found
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dead in the house man now Billy blog has
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been accused of murder when there is no
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doubt the person has been found dead in
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the house that's like the fact and it's
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the murder that is the allegation so I
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don't like it when people say allegedly
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in front of things that are patiently
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that's because they don't know where
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they're supposed to put the allegedly if
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a man is found dead with stab wounds
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he's found dead with stab wounds who now
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who stabbed him and how it was done
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that's all the allegedly stuff that's
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what you put the allegedly in front if
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you don't have to say allegedly in front
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of things that are obviously facts
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ok so like a reporter's believe that
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allegedly is a word that gets them out
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yeah there should always be a bias to
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say that word sooner and more frequently
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than appropriate because the downsides
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using the word allegedly wrong is Brady
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gets annoyed right but the upside is
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they feel like they've covered
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themselves for anything that might be
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no but you start to look stupid like if
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you say a plane was allegedly flown into
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the World Trade Center right like you
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look like an idiot because there's no
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allegation there's nothing to be proved
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or disproved unless you're a real
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nutcase you're actually going to find
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people who will disagree with you on
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that one email Brady clearly that
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happened now who did it and why they did
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it and how they did it
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that's where all the allegation start
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because that's where investigation needs
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who but like the incident happened who
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the car crash happened and someone died
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that would be there is no allegation
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necessary I know what you're saying but
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I think if I was a reporter on TV I
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would sprinkle allegedly all over the
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place allegedly supposedly an hour every
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other sentence just well having worked
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in the media in Australia and in the UK
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in the UK where I think they know what
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they're doing with that going back to
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Australia this time after having not
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seen it for four years I felt they
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looked silly didn't feel like amateur
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hour is that what you're saying it felt
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like they didn't know what they were
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doing and I would just dropping it in
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everywhere because they didn't know and
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you know when you see professionals
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using it properly
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fair enough but this was silly it
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papercut me gray Freddie doesn't want
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his fax allegedly he wants them actually
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this is a little bit nation it really
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got me during the Olympics but I just
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have to mention it because even though
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the Olympics are over the BBC are
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persisting with this program they're
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reading called get inspired
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oh my god that sounds awful yeah
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it pertains to sport and the thing is
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they're trying to get people to
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participate in sport i guess it's one of
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these things where they can say we're
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helping make Britain's healthier by
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getting them to exercise more love to
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see some numbers on that and so they're
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trying to hashtag get inspired people
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all the time who I am and usually it was
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no we're going to the archery where
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someone from Britain has just won a gold
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medal in the 20-metre archery shoot and
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i'll show you the highlights and
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afterwards they'll say you know by the
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hashtag get inspired why don't you go to
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our website and will show you where all
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the archery clubs are in your local area
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◼
►
mmm and it just infiltrated the Olympics
[TS]
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►
something terribly and I thought okay at
[TS]
◼
►
least it's over now but they're still
[TS]
◼
►
doing it and it's kind of annoying when
[TS]
◼
►
you're watching sport to then be
[TS]
◼
►
reminded that you know you don't play
[TS]
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►
the sport you should play the sport you
[TS]
◼
►
it's like shut up man its gonna watch
[TS]
◼
►
this poor you don't have to know about
[TS]
◼
►
me sitting on the couch eating chips
[TS]
◼
►
okay we're like wait a minute is that
[TS]
◼
►
whatever is brady going with is that
[TS]
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►
like some are always i feel like i'm in
[TS]
◼
►
this fog of a story trying to figure
[TS]
◼
►
like we're gonna slap the thing that
[TS]
◼
►
really bothers you is you feel like the
[TS]
◼
►
TV is judging you for the cat that
[TS]
◼
►
doesn't know any but that's not the part
[TS]
◼
►
that annoys me the part that annoys me
[TS]
◼
►
is the worthy in a silver it's the whole
[TS]
◼
►
house and this other it's not enough
[TS]
◼
►
just to show sport and let us watch the
[TS]
◼
►
Olympics the BBC Hester and you know I
[TS]
◼
►
don't like being a baby sea bass sure i
[TS]
◼
►
worked there for many years and other
[TS]
◼
►
maybe say but the baby C can be a bit
[TS]
◼
►
guilty of having to make everything
[TS]
◼
►
worthy and everything like wholesome and
[TS]
◼
►
have a good cause to her and sometimes
[TS]
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►
you just want to watch the sport and
[TS]
◼
►
think that was awesome you don't want to
[TS]
◼
►
then be told by the way that's all get
[TS]
◼
►
inspired all jump on the penis bus
[TS]
◼
►
together and go and get fit
[TS]
◼
►
it's not that I feel like they're
[TS]
◼
►
judging me and making me feel like a
[TS]
◼
►
it's the goody-two-shoes and summer it's
[TS]
◼
►
just laid on a bit thick for me it's a
[TS]
◼
►
well the thing with this the hashtag
[TS]
◼
►
campaign which is talking about like oh
[TS]
◼
►
the BBC knows what they're doing they
[TS]
◼
►
certainly don't know what they're doing
[TS]
◼
►
with picking hashtags because
[TS]
◼
►
hashtag get inspired is so broad like of
[TS]
◼
►
course other people are going to be
[TS]
◼
►
using it i'm looking through twitter
[TS]
◼
►
right now and it seems like hashtag get
[TS]
◼
►
inspired used for many things
[TS]
◼
►
it's not just use for the BBC so
[TS]
◼
►
scrolling through here there are many
[TS]
◼
►
many other things that people want to
[TS]
◼
►
use hashtag get inspired for so BBC you
[TS]
◼
►
done a terrible job of picking a hashtag
[TS]
◼
►
of course somebody else is going to have
[TS]
◼
►
that that's no good and got us some of
[TS]
◼
►
these things dumb inspiration is so so
[TS]
◼
►
worthless is a half-life of three
[TS]
◼
►
that's what annoys me gray not that they
[TS]
◼
►
know that I'm eating chips while i watch
[TS]
◼
►
the actually it's the whole poster of an
[TS]
◼
►
eagle with saw written on it on the
[TS]
◼
►
office it's the hashtag equivalent of
[TS]
◼
►
yeah it totally is i cannot imagine if
[TS]
◼
►
you actually interview elite athletes or
[TS]
◼
►
anybody who is elite at anything that
[TS]
◼
►
they actually everyday wake up and feel
[TS]
◼
►
genuinely inspired I don't think that's
[TS]
◼
►
how people become professional sports
[TS]
◼
►
players if you are relying on
[TS]
◼
►
inspiration to get you off of your couch
[TS]
◼
►
right in the chips out of your mouth and
[TS]
◼
►
haha onto the jousting court like I
[TS]
◼
►
don't think that's really going to work
[TS]
◼
►
in the long run like if you have to be
[TS]
◼
►
inspired every morning for that to
[TS]
◼
►
happen like that's not how this works
[TS]
◼
►
that's not how many think works
[TS]
◼
►
inspiration dumb and worthless this
[TS]
◼
►
episode of Hello internet is brought to
[TS]
◼
►
you by Squarespace the simplest way for
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what hTML is it doesn't matter you can
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time you need them and they have a
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commerce platform which allows anyone to
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◼
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[TS]
◼
►
know what we're about to talk about
[TS]
◼
►
breaks it here ok and i find this
[TS]
◼
►
interesting because you and I spoke
[TS]
◼
►
about a bit probably less on the podcast
[TS]
◼
►
because between each other we speak
[TS]
◼
►
about breaks a quiet beforehand just
[TS]
◼
►
over you know at the public something
[TS]
◼
►
before the vote blue ice room and then
[TS]
◼
►
just before it happened after happened I
[TS]
◼
►
suddenly got really passionate about it
[TS]
◼
►
i got really fired up about it and it
[TS]
◼
►
really affected me for a while and now
[TS]
◼
►
I'm kind of over and I've moved on but
[TS]
◼
►
it was like only now are you beginning
[TS]
◼
►
to get really like interested in that I
[TS]
◼
►
wouldn't say passionate because you know
[TS]
◼
►
there aren't that many things that i
[TS]
◼
►
would describe you as passionate about
[TS]
◼
►
but he's looking here at the show notes
[TS]
◼
►
so let's see that list okay because all
[TS]
◼
►
these bullet points and all these things
[TS]
◼
►
and suddenly like it's like the giant
[TS]
◼
►
has awoken and you've just realized it
[TS]
◼
►
happened I know you made a video about
[TS]
◼
►
you know you were quite aware it was
[TS]
◼
►
happening up but it's like you're firing
[TS]
◼
►
up about it now is that right
[TS]
◼
►
no that's not right I'm not fired up
[TS]
◼
►
about it this is I think a funny side
[TS]
◼
►
effect of since in that video you
[TS]
◼
►
mentioned I kind of went public on the
[TS]
◼
►
record with a guess about the future
[TS]
◼
►
with some probabilities
[TS]
◼
►
yeah I find myself suddenly much more
[TS]
◼
►
invested in seeing what happens like I
[TS]
◼
►
really want to know what is going to be
[TS]
◼
►
the end result of this okay because I've
[TS]
◼
►
gone on record saying here's my probable
[TS]
◼
►
outcomes for you know what's going to
[TS]
◼
►
occur with this breakfast thing so you
[TS]
◼
►
feel like you're on the hook of it yeah
[TS]
◼
►
I feel like I'm on the hook a bit and
[TS]
◼
►
it's just like I think like i said when
[TS]
◼
►
i first did that breakfast video I for a
[TS]
◼
►
while I just didn't really think about
[TS]
◼
►
this topic I didn't find it super
[TS]
◼
►
engaging but I find a lot of the post
[TS]
◼
►
stuff way more interesting because we're
[TS]
◼
►
in this bizarre no rules land
[TS]
◼
►
nobody knows there's no clear guidance
[TS]
◼
►
on anything that makes to me like what
[TS]
◼
►
actually occurs much more interesting in
[TS]
◼
►
a way it's all up in the air in my view
[TS]
◼
►
there's some kind of like power grab
[TS]
◼
►
going on or like this stuff happening
[TS]
◼
►
behind the scenes like who knows what
[TS]
◼
►
it's impossible to see the clear path
[TS]
◼
►
and so that's why I find this kind of
[TS]
◼
►
interesting note let's do a great what
[TS]
◼
►
are some of the points here that I've
[TS]
◼
►
been catching your eye on the last
[TS]
◼
►
the main thing I want to talk about is
[TS]
◼
►
like this timeline that i think is kind
[TS]
◼
►
of interesting so when Rex it occurred
[TS]
◼
►
the vote happened couple months ago now
[TS]
◼
►
and from then until now it's been all
[TS]
◼
►
quiet on the western front and I've been
[TS]
◼
►
making some jokey tweets between then
[TS]
◼
►
and now about like haven't heard
[TS]
◼
►
anything about this breaks it's like
[TS]
◼
►
everybody put their heads down and for a
[TS]
◼
►
while it seemed like they were just
[TS]
◼
►
trying to pretend that it didn't happen
[TS]
◼
►
as I wonder what's going to happen but
[TS]
◼
►
just in the past couple weeks it to me
[TS]
◼
►
it seems like the brexit creature has
[TS]
◼
►
woken up and now there are things
[TS]
◼
►
possibly occurring
[TS]
◼
►
yeah and it all started with Theresa May
[TS]
◼
►
the British Prime Minister giving a
[TS]
◼
►
little speech about two weeks ago saying
[TS]
◼
►
that Rex it was definitely for sures
[TS]
◼
►
100-percent for real going to happen by
[TS]
◼
►
the end of march by which they mean
[TS]
◼
►
they're actually going to invoke Article
[TS]
◼
►
50 and start the two year long process
[TS]
◼
►
by which breaks that will occur
[TS]
◼
►
yeah by the end of March even the
[TS]
◼
►
people in Europe watch the news so they
[TS]
◼
►
know what's coming
[TS]
◼
►
this is the official notification to
[TS]
◼
►
Europe that we're leaving the club and
[TS]
◼
►
as soon as you do that soon as you give
[TS]
◼
►
the official notification you're out of
[TS]
◼
►
the club in two years no matter what so
[TS]
◼
►
if you haven't got your ducks in a row
[TS]
◼
►
and all your new treaties and agreements
[TS]
◼
►
in place by then you're out on your own
[TS]
◼
►
so you've got this two-year mad rush to
[TS]
◼
►
have all your right reasons in place
[TS]
◼
►
before you are out of the club right
[TS]
◼
►
that's what occurs and have to figure
[TS]
◼
►
out everything in those two years and I
[TS]
◼
►
just find myself constantly speculating
[TS]
◼
►
like I don't know what's occurring
[TS]
◼
►
welcome to the United Kingdom never
[TS]
◼
►
stood you have it but I've never be like
[TS]
◼
►
I keep trying to play this game of the
[TS]
◼
►
sort of like what i was doing in that
[TS]
◼
►
first video of I think people let's just
[TS]
◼
►
say they overvalue the influence that
[TS]
◼
►
citizens and their desires have on the
[TS]
◼
►
actual mechanisms of power i think that
[TS]
◼
►
the people in power do things that the
[TS]
◼
►
citizens want when it is convenient and
[TS]
◼
►
not when it is inconvenient and so this
[TS]
◼
►
is why i like the breakfast thing I find
[TS]
◼
►
super interesting and even though like
[TS]
◼
►
okay so Theresa May comes out and she
[TS]
◼
►
says invoke Article 50 by the end of
[TS]
◼
►
March all i hear is but not yet right
[TS]
◼
►
like we could invoke Article 50 right
[TS]
◼
►
now but later and to me this seems like
[TS]
◼
►
it looks like it's another stalling
[TS]
◼
►
tactic but I can't figure out like I'm
[TS]
◼
►
trying to look deep into Reese amazed
[TS]
◼
►
eyes when she's giving a speech like
[TS]
◼
►
what's going on in that head Theresa May
[TS]
◼
►
like what's the sum of the force diagram
[TS]
◼
►
of influences upon you i can tell you
[TS]
◼
►
what do you think they are what do you
[TS]
◼
►
think they are they are remain in power
[TS]
◼
►
for as long as possible and get
[TS]
◼
►
reelected of course
[TS]
◼
►
yeah that's what's going on that's what
[TS]
◼
►
every politician wants stay in power as
[TS]
◼
►
long as possible so what I mean they're
[TS]
◼
►
like what's the influence upon her is
[TS]
◼
►
like what is especially because of the
[TS]
◼
►
weird way that the UK government works
[TS]
◼
►
with the Prime Minister is not elected
[TS]
◼
►
directly like I just don't know what it
[TS]
◼
►
is that she wants
[TS]
◼
►
I try to look at actions as opposed to
[TS]
◼
►
words and even though the government has
[TS]
◼
►
come out and has sounded pretty Rex it
[TS]
◼
►
is definitely going to happen we're
[TS]
◼
►
going to follow the will of the people
[TS]
◼
►
which is so clear from the election it
[TS]
◼
►
still looks to me like it's just
[TS]
◼
►
I just I can't help but see continued
[TS]
◼
►
stalling I mean I'm not telling you
[TS]
◼
►
anything you don't know here of course
[TS]
◼
►
but the reason it's incredibly
[TS]
◼
►
complicated because without simple to
[TS]
◼
►
say she wants to stay in Paris long as
[TS]
◼
►
possible and get reelected
[TS]
◼
►
mmm the things that affect that have
[TS]
◼
►
multiple interests the people the
[TS]
◼
►
majority of people want to leave a you
[TS]
◼
►
that's what they voted for as
[TS]
◼
►
unbelievable as that is to me that's
[TS]
◼
►
what they voted for who she also has a
[TS]
◼
►
lot of interests within the party she
[TS]
◼
►
has to balance of course then she also
[TS]
◼
►
has the business world she has to
[TS]
◼
►
balance which overall doesn't want to
[TS]
◼
►
come out of the way you are responsible
[TS]
◼
►
for all the money she needs to get
[TS]
◼
►
reelected look so the thing she needs to
[TS]
◼
►
do to stay in power is figure out who to
[TS]
◼
►
placate and how much that's the
[TS]
◼
►
difficult thing she has I don't think
[TS]
◼
►
she has a particularly firm belief on I
[TS]
◼
►
think her beliefs like most politicians
[TS]
◼
►
are probably quite flexible depending on
[TS]
◼
►
what's expedient and in their best
[TS]
◼
►
interests but unfortunately all the
[TS]
◼
►
people she's having to placate to
[TS]
◼
►
achieve her ends also all have very
[TS]
◼
►
different interests here so delaying to
[TS]
◼
►
match is probably a little bit of giving
[TS]
◼
►
yourself more time you might imagine
[TS]
◼
►
matches also there's probably a lot of
[TS]
◼
►
business and bureaucratic reasons for
[TS]
◼
►
that you don't want to do something
[TS]
◼
►
right before Christmas when everyone's
[TS]
◼
►
leaving you don't want to do some whose
[TS]
◼
►
early in the new year because everyone's
[TS]
◼
►
on holidays and matches probably just
[TS]
◼
►
when any business would make a big
[TS]
◼
►
decision or do some big bureaucratic
[TS]
◼
►
process like invoking article 15 so I
[TS]
◼
►
wouldn't read too much into march as a
[TS]
◼
►
delaying tactic i think once it was
[TS]
◼
►
decided it wasn't going to be done this
[TS]
◼
►
year which was pretty much decided the
[TS]
◼
►
day after the election
[TS]
◼
►
it was always going to be match it's
[TS]
◼
►
interesting to hear you say I guess my
[TS]
◼
►
take on it though is still like the
[TS]
◼
►
thing that occurs is simply the start of
[TS]
◼
►
a countdown clock it's not like over if
[TS]
◼
►
we do it in november we've got to get in
[TS]
◼
►
all those trade deals before Christmas
[TS]
◼
►
right it's like you still you're still
[TS]
◼
►
looking at something that's incredibly
[TS]
◼
►
far away I can see what you're saying
[TS]
◼
►
that but why start the clock now when
[TS]
◼
►
you're gonna have five months of a
[TS]
◼
►
fellow period where all the bureaucrats
[TS]
◼
►
are all going on holidays and having
[TS]
◼
►
Christmas often January when they can't
[TS]
◼
►
do deals with anyone and you know Europe
[TS]
◼
►
goes to sleep over that period as well
[TS]
◼
►
so like why waste clock time
[TS]
◼
►
why waste the shot clock on five months
[TS]
◼
►
that your current user it makes sense to
[TS]
◼
►
start the shot clock and match so you
[TS]
◼
►
can hit the ground running
[TS]
◼
►
I think that is totally fair in her
[TS]
◼
►
speech I couldn't help but notice that
[TS]
◼
►
she kept using the phrase like we will
[TS]
◼
►
invoke Article 50 by the end of march as
[TS]
◼
►
long as there are no unnecessary delays
[TS]
◼
►
currently what is it unnecessary delay
[TS]
◼
►
right those two words are the thing upon
[TS]
◼
►
which all of this hinges now doesn't
[TS]
◼
►
like what is an unnecessary delay who
[TS]
◼
►
gets to decide what is it unnecessary
[TS]
◼
►
delay and the other thing that I think
[TS]
◼
►
is kind of interesting about this is
[TS]
◼
►
what looks to me is almost like a little
[TS]
◼
►
is that Theresa May has essentially
[TS]
◼
►
declared there's going to be no vote in
[TS]
◼
►
Parliament's to approve this article 50
[TS]
◼
►
and vocation at the end of March this to
[TS]
◼
►
me is again I find this kind of amazing
[TS]
◼
►
because it's like there's no procedure
[TS]
◼
►
there's no rules for this is like
[TS]
◼
►
whoever got to the microphone first gets
[TS]
◼
►
to just say like oh I'm Theresa May and
[TS]
◼
►
I'm deciding now there's not there's not
[TS]
◼
►
gonna be a vote in parliament I just had
[TS]
◼
►
the power to invoke Article 50 like do
[TS]
◼
►
you think we don't know we just know
[TS]
◼
►
that this thing exists and someone needs
[TS]
◼
►
to press the button but it's it seems
[TS]
◼
►
like a crazy power grab
[TS]
◼
►
where someone is able to just say like
[TS]
◼
►
no I am the only person who gets to
[TS]
◼
►
decide when this button is pressed there
[TS]
◼
►
can be no overriding from Parliament I'm
[TS]
◼
►
the decider in this in this scenario
[TS]
◼
►
like I find that just absolutely
[TS]
◼
►
fascinating i'm going like how this is
[TS]
◼
►
unfolding it is extraordinary that the
[TS]
◼
►
parliament voted on up because the
[TS]
◼
►
referendum was so nebulous in this
[TS]
◼
►
question though is so lacking in detail
[TS]
◼
►
and now the Parliament itself is not
[TS]
◼
►
even going to be told in detail either
[TS]
◼
►
before it starts
[TS]
◼
►
I will concede obviously someone who
[TS]
◼
►
wish that we had remained them the
[TS]
◼
►
remaining people like me I guess
[TS]
◼
►
secretly thought maybe a vote of the
[TS]
◼
►
Parliament was a fine or like get off
[TS]
◼
►
wiggle out of course for sort of hope
[TS]
◼
►
and obviously that's not gonna happen
[TS]
◼
►
and to resume doesn't want to happen
[TS]
◼
►
because it would just cause such a mess
[TS]
◼
►
because the Parliament probably would
[TS]
◼
►
wiggle out of it if it could but that
[TS]
◼
►
will cause so much unhappiness in the
[TS]
◼
►
community that to resume will you might
[TS]
◼
►
be able to get reelected possibly so it
[TS]
◼
►
would just blow up in our face so I can
[TS]
◼
►
see why she's doing it but it is kind of
[TS]
◼
►
extraordinary that the biggest thing
[TS]
◼
►
this country ever does will happen
[TS]
◼
►
without the rubber stamping of the
[TS]
◼
►
Parliament i know there was a referendum
[TS]
◼
►
but that referendum question man that
[TS]
◼
►
was like super vague as to what it means
[TS]
◼
►
so like you'd hoped the rubber stamp
[TS]
◼
►
would say okay we're coming out and this
[TS]
◼
►
is how we're doing it but we don't even
[TS]
◼
►
get to have that the people or the pilot
[TS]
◼
►
never gonna have a say on what the
[TS]
◼
►
nature of our breaks it is that's
[TS]
◼
►
amazing that's how it's played out but
[TS]
◼
►
there you go that's where it is
[TS]
◼
►
absolutely astounding this declaration
[TS]
◼
►
that Parliament will not vote on brexit
[TS]
◼
►
that I find that an interesting piece of
[TS]
◼
►
evidence that contradicts Milo maximum
[TS]
◼
►
brexit prediction because it is being
[TS]
◼
►
legally challenged by the way of course
[TS]
◼
►
yeah it's always gonna be this but it's
[TS]
◼
►
like yeah if I was Theresa May and I was
[TS]
◼
►
thinking like expect right like however
[TS]
◼
►
gonna back out of this you would of
[TS]
◼
►
course say like oh yes we'll have the
[TS]
◼
►
Parliament vote on it and we'll go right
[TS]
◼
►
ahead but if she's trying to override
[TS]
◼
►
the Parliament it leads me to believe
[TS]
◼
►
like the sum of the forces acting upon
[TS]
◼
►
her actually do want brexit to occur
[TS]
◼
►
which I just I find interesting
[TS]
◼
►
there's been this weird thing that's
[TS]
◼
►
been on my mind which is slightly
[TS]
◼
►
kidding into like conspiracy theory
[TS]
◼
►
territory but i can't help but notice
[TS]
◼
►
how the value of the pound keeps
[TS]
◼
►
dropping like everytime Theresa May
[TS]
◼
►
speaks I feel like I want a note from
[TS]
◼
►
her speech writer like when is she ever
[TS]
◼
►
going to give a speech and I want to be
[TS]
◼
►
shorting the pound the day before that
[TS]
◼
►
I think this fantastically trivial
[TS]
◼
►
detail but i think is amazing is just
[TS]
◼
►
how in her first speech where she
[TS]
◼
►
announced that by the end of March they
[TS]
◼
►
were going to invoke article 53 made a
[TS]
◼
►
reference to Britain is super strong and
[TS]
◼
►
where the fifth largest economy in the
[TS]
◼
►
world untie me and this speech because
[TS]
◼
►
of the currency exchange rate has
[TS]
◼
►
dropped down to the six largest economy
[TS]
◼
►
in the world not like who
[TS]
◼
►
right that's not great yeah but I wonder
[TS]
◼
►
like when you think about powerful
[TS]
◼
►
forces in the world it almost becomes
[TS]
◼
►
like economically certain to bet against
[TS]
◼
►
britain at least in the short run
[TS]
◼
►
I just wonder like is there some
[TS]
◼
►
incentive to kind of like be able to
[TS]
◼
►
make a bunch of money by betting against
[TS]
◼
►
Britain in the next two years you know
[TS]
◼
►
not doing very well in the short run
[TS]
◼
►
even if I said before like theoretically
[TS]
◼
►
maybe an independent Britain could do
[TS]
◼
►
very well I don't know but it seems like
[TS]
◼
►
pretty sure that betting against the
[TS]
◼
►
pound is going to be a profitable thing
[TS]
◼
►
in the short run like I just don't know
[TS]
◼
►
I just wonder about that but what you
[TS]
◼
►
think it's got a lot for the drop
[TS]
◼
►
I think it might yeah I could see the
[TS]
◼
►
pounds reaching parody with the dollar
[TS]
◼
►
when actual Rex it occurs when you talk
[TS]
◼
►
to people they like oh the uncertainty
[TS]
◼
►
about breakfast is already priced into
[TS]
◼
►
the exchange rate between the dollar in
[TS]
◼
►
the pound but people say that at every
[TS]
◼
►
level and it doesn't matter i like
[TS]
◼
►
people said that before the actual
[TS]
◼
►
brexit election occurred and then of
[TS]
◼
►
course you get the result in the pound
[TS]
◼
►
incredibly drops and people like okay
[TS]
◼
►
but don't worry the uncertainty about
[TS]
◼
►
the future is built into the exchange
[TS]
◼
►
rate now it's like but that when Theresa
[TS]
◼
►
May give the speech like then it drops
[TS]
◼
►
again and she gives another talk and the
[TS]
◼
►
pound it a low against the dollar of
[TS]
◼
►
like a hundred and sixty-eight years
[TS]
◼
►
that's the exchange rate had not been so
[TS]
◼
►
low it just seems incredible to me and I
[TS]
◼
►
don't think that the uncertainty about
[TS]
◼
►
brexit is priced into the pound even now
[TS]
◼
►
I i really do think it could keep going
[TS]
◼
►
lower and lower if the hard maximum
[TS]
◼
►
breaks it actually occurs
[TS]
◼
►
you think so I mean do you think it's
[TS]
◼
►
not gonna drop any lower and I i think
[TS]
◼
►
this is well out of my area of expertise
[TS]
◼
►
to the point where I can't even like
[TS]
◼
►
just say a wild podcast speculation but
[TS]
◼
►
I deny nothing surprises me anymore
[TS]
◼
►
nothing surprises you know now it could
[TS]
◼
►
drop by fifty percent or go up by 50%
[TS]
◼
►
overnight and both scenarios would make
[TS]
◼
►
yeah I guess that was gonna happen like
[TS]
◼
►
I'm just look I got no idea now I wake
[TS]
◼
►
up every morning just go into a new site
[TS]
◼
►
thinking god what spectacular political
[TS]
◼
►
monstrosity cock has happened overnight
[TS]
◼
►
either on this side of the Atlantic or
[TS]
◼
►
the other and there's always something
[TS]
◼
►
like now it's the smooth sailing this
[TS]
◼
►
past year that the but smooth sailing
[TS]
◼
►
now I have no idea great i mean i think
[TS]
◼
►
the pound dropping is probably good for
[TS]
◼
►
maybe because I in dollars but then
[TS]
◼
►
again I do travel a lot and like you're
[TS]
◼
►
not going to Australia was more
[TS]
◼
►
expensive initiative in and the price of
[TS]
◼
►
things in the UK starting to go up now
[TS]
◼
►
because of this exchange rate issue as
[TS]
◼
►
well so you will have missed it
[TS]
◼
►
probably but it's been a fuel news
[TS]
◼
►
stories over the last few days all the
[TS]
◼
►
big American companies are trying to put
[TS]
◼
►
up the price of just everyday groceries
[TS]
◼
►
in the supermarket's so it's starting to
[TS]
◼
►
kind of hit people's pockets it happened
[TS]
◼
►
with the pricing of a couple of apple
[TS]
◼
►
products there was some speculation
[TS]
◼
►
about that they were like unusually high
[TS]
◼
►
priced in british pounds as like it's
[TS]
◼
►
almost certainly Apple try to factor in
[TS]
◼
►
the cost of the pound devaluing overtime
[TS]
◼
►
yeah you know for the future for imports
[TS]
◼
►
this also is a kind of funny situation
[TS]
◼
►
because if I feel like since again most
[TS]
◼
►
of my money comes from dollars from
[TS]
◼
►
I feel like them in this strange no-lose
[TS]
◼
►
situation that allows me to look at it
[TS]
◼
►
in in this like dispassionate way it's
[TS]
◼
►
like either a dumb thing that I don't
[TS]
◼
►
want to have happen doesn't happen which
[TS]
◼
►
is brexit it's like okay great so we
[TS]
◼
►
stay in the European Union everything is
[TS]
◼
►
fine or her breaks it happened the pound
[TS]
◼
►
continues to crash but it's like plants
[TS]
◼
►
in some paid in dollars that's not
[TS]
◼
►
that's good news for the most part it's
[TS]
◼
►
it seems like it's a win-win situation
[TS]
◼
►
for me personally with regard to
[TS]
◼
►
that's why i guess i can i can think
[TS]
◼
►
about it without having to feel like I'm
[TS]
◼
►
super-worried one way or the other about
[TS]
◼
►
the scenario especially again because my
[TS]
◼
►
own particular situation i don't have to
[TS]
◼
►
worry about being kicked out of the UK
[TS]
◼
►
whereas like I no interest in line for
[TS]
◼
►
many people this is not a fun thing to
[TS]
◼
►
think about but I just find myself
[TS]
◼
►
constantly wondering and speculating
[TS]
◼
►
about the motives and desires of the
[TS]
◼
►
people in charge of this whole Oliver
[TS]
◼
►
when they are given a kind of open space
[TS]
◼
►
in which there are no rules about how
[TS]
◼
►
this whole thing should unfold
[TS]
◼
►
I can't remember your video grey I know
[TS]
◼
►
you put different percentages on the
[TS]
◼
►
different likelihood of things like hard
[TS]
◼
►
exit and softer than what was the one
[TS]
◼
►
you put the most likely hood on again
[TS]
◼
►
was a soft the biggest one was the the
[TS]
◼
►
non brexit brexit wish I think looks
[TS]
◼
►
less and less likely overtime if I was
[TS]
◼
►
doing that now i would probably revise
[TS]
◼
►
that down and split the difference
[TS]
◼
►
between maximum brexit and nothing at
[TS]
◼
►
all occurring I think it's like my gut
[TS]
◼
►
feeling right now I don't know but what
[TS]
◼
►
do you think Brady i think at the time
[TS]
◼
►
that your video came out I remember
[TS]
◼
►
thinking that your percentages probably
[TS]
◼
►
quite reasonable
[TS]
◼
►
I now think it's looking like it's going
[TS]
◼
►
to be a pretty hard bricks it i think
[TS]
◼
►
nothing at all is almost impossible who
[TS]
◼
►
everyone's painted themselves into some
[TS]
◼
►
pretty firm corners now the problem was
[TS]
◼
►
to resume the Prime Minister like
[TS]
◼
►
famously was quite wishy-washy about
[TS]
◼
►
what side she was on who he hedged their
[TS]
◼
►
bets and the bricks that has been the
[TS]
◼
►
making of her you know she became prime
[TS]
◼
►
minister because of it
[TS]
◼
►
so she's now had nailed her colours to
[TS]
◼
►
the mast so I don't think she could
[TS]
◼
►
realistically although I deep down I
[TS]
◼
►
think maybe she was a romaine and
[TS]
◼
►
publicly she was a mild remain ER now
[TS]
◼
►
she can't be that unless there's some
[TS]
◼
►
massive upheaval you know the people
[TS]
◼
►
with all the power and our all the
[TS]
◼
►
it's gonna happen and I think it's gonna
[TS]
◼
►
have to happen hard now so see what
[TS]
◼
►
happens so you think heart breaks it is
[TS]
◼
►
the most likely option
[TS]
◼
►
yeah interesting unfortunately i do i
[TS]
◼
►
would say like fifty percent had forty
[TS]
◼
►
percent soft and ten percent none
[TS]
◼
►
hmm what do you recommend be your
[TS]
◼
►
numbers on those three just trying to
[TS]
◼
►
mentally sick think like where would I
[TS]
◼
►
put those numbers now i'm really not
[TS]
◼
►
sure I think I happen to like sit down
[TS]
◼
►
and write it out
[TS]
◼
►
I just said the first numbers that came
[TS]
◼
►
into my head it is not how it works in
[TS]
◼
►
no small part because I'm very bad at
[TS]
◼
►
something up to 100 off the topic
[TS]
◼
►
ok right and seventy percent there's
[TS]
◼
►
sixty percent that and forty percent
[TS]
◼
►
this I don't know if I feel like maybe
[TS]
◼
►
it's much closer to like an evenly
[TS]
◼
►
divided pie chart in my mind of what's
[TS]
◼
►
going to occur and it's also a case of I
[TS]
◼
►
think it's very hard to kind of separate
[TS]
◼
►
out your own personal biases of what you
[TS]
◼
►
yeah and how you interpret the news
[TS]
◼
►
results even just in this conversation
[TS]
◼
►
that you slightly moved me from my
[TS]
◼
►
position of Omar CH seems like hilarious
[TS]
◼
►
stalling to maybe that's not
[TS]
◼
►
unreasonable time to do this if you've
[TS]
◼
►
already made a decision about not
[TS]
◼
►
currently in the year but yeah i think
[TS]
◼
►
it's interesting i do think it is also
[TS]
◼
►
under the category of not surprising but
[TS]
◼
►
also interesting that Scotland is
[TS]
◼
►
already working on having their second
[TS]
◼
►
independence referendum yeah but their
[TS]
◼
►
Parliament is busy putting together a
[TS]
◼
►
bill to put another vote to the Scottish
[TS]
◼
►
people for what to do
[TS]
◼
►
that's just total at a mess as well
[TS]
◼
►
because imagine if they did have a
[TS]
◼
►
independence referendum and voted in
[TS]
◼
►
favor of leaving the UK under this whole
[TS]
◼
►
premise of wanting to stay in Europe
[TS]
◼
►
Europe is not going to keep just
[TS]
◼
►
scotland i don't think it's even an
[TS]
◼
►
option yet again will be voting on
[TS]
◼
►
things without knowing what the options
[TS]
◼
►
are but how is that going to work but
[TS]
◼
►
that is going to say okay you can stay
[TS]
◼
►
Scotland even over Nelson's that attack
[TS]
◼
►
little Scotland up the North there
[TS]
◼
►
what'd y más it is the total mass but i
[TS]
◼
►
think last time I was over somewhat
[TS]
◼
►
ambivalent on advising Scotland one way
[TS]
◼
►
or another about how to vote even though
[TS]
◼
►
I want it's got this day but I feel like
[TS]
◼
►
mad Scotland if you get your second
[TS]
◼
►
independence referendum
[TS]
◼
►
you better take back anything though
[TS]
◼
►
that advice is detrimental to my own
[TS]
◼
►
interest in many ways like Scotland's
[TS]
◼
►
take your independence and run think if
[TS]
◼
►
if Scotland does have a second
[TS]
◼
►
referendum I will be shocked if it
[TS]
◼
►
doesn't pass right I'll be shocked if
[TS]
◼
►
they don't say Scotland is going
[TS]
◼
►
independent and we're going to try to
[TS]
◼
►
stick with the EU even if we don't know
[TS]
◼
►
what the EU is going to do or the EU is
[TS]
◼
►
going to accept that like if I was
[TS]
◼
►
living in scotland i would totally vote
[TS]
◼
►
for independence you agree
[TS]
◼
►
no I don't actually really know you
[TS]
◼
►
think Scotland should voters day I think
[TS]
◼
►
leaving now would be even more dangerous
[TS]
◼
►
than it would have been for them before
[TS]
◼
►
the break so vote
[TS]
◼
►
don't get me wrong number amateur and
[TS]
◼
►
don't get upset at me everyone because i
[TS]
◼
►
don't know what i'm talking about but
[TS]
◼
►
like now they would be cutting
[TS]
◼
►
themselves at least before bricks if
[TS]
◼
►
they cut themselves adrift in the UK
[TS]
◼
►
they were still part of Europe now
[TS]
◼
►
they'll be cutting themselves off from
[TS]
◼
►
everything that we kind of them so far
[TS]
◼
►
from Europe in my opinion and nobody cut
[TS]
◼
►
himself off from the size of the UK
[TS]
◼
►
they'll just become a minnow like
[TS]
◼
►
they'll be just like an island I think
[TS]
◼
►
it'd be really dangerous for them to not
[TS]
◼
►
be part of Europe or part of the UK they
[TS]
◼
►
have nothing and don't get me wrong and
[TS]
◼
►
I don't have their independence and
[TS]
◼
►
their freedom and bravery or Latin but I
[TS]
◼
►
think those are just words in this day
[TS]
◼
►
and age agent you want to be part of
[TS]
◼
►
economies and things and and i think
[TS]
◼
►
they could fight to stay because I think
[TS]
◼
►
a lot of them will realize that's pretty
[TS]
◼
►
dangerous for them to always feel I was
[TS]
◼
►
just looking it up how many people live
[TS]
◼
►
in Scotland ok never now but it is a 5.3
[TS]
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yeah so so they won't be part of the UK
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they won't be part of Europe just be a
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nation of 5.3 million people with some
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let's put them on the chart of Nations
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5.3 million people this is comparable to
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it's actually pretty comparable to
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Norway just about the same size as
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norway norway has 5.3 million people i'm
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sure Scotland likes to think of
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themselves as a kind of Norway also
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comparable to Eritrea slovakia
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and the central african republic right
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that's the kind of ballpark of what
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Scotland would be I don't know I think I
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understand what you're saying about them
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being adrift but I is clear like I'm
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imagining the UK at least for the
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transition time is a bit like a sinking
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ship and Scotland is a bit like a
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lifeboat leaving and you know what the
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50 Scotland I say take that lifeboat see
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if you can attach yourself back to the
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EU nao I think that'd be leaving a
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sinking ship for something potentially
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worse but at least there's a chance this
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ship will get bailed out or stay afloat
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if Europe said Scotland you can stay in
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the EU then i would say vote for
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independence of course but the ease not
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going to say that you're it's not going
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to have them on just on their own
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I don't know maybe they'll do it just to
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give the middle finger to the UK but
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that would be genius funny virus in
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charge of the EU i would totally do that
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actually like I would essentially offer
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a join the EU free pass to Scotland
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Wales and London virus instructor the
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yeah come on over guys that'll teach
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anybody who wants to become independent
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