The Talk Show

29: The Mac Faithful, with John Moltz

 

  this is the talk show with John Gruber

  on John Gruber your host my special

  guest this week is John Smoltz you

  should do that again

  do yourself an impression that's not

  really a zelda I can't do is element

  impression really i'm sort of just doing

  a very like what he did is he just

  instantly and naturally did like a very

  professional introduction right off the

  top of his head

  you know I can't do it and I don't do

  impressions and and development has such

  a great voice my god I told me the end

  of the show it's like like voices on

  podcasts are like fonts for reading and

  like his his voice font is just so great

  it's got like this just incredibly rich

  voice that i do not know ya sa unlike

  both of us

  you got the big got the big backpage

  column and in Macworld i did this we get

  something for it did I think its new

  right yeah that's the februari times the

  fairies pile up from issue which i

  believe is the latest i always get them

  i always get them later

  I'm always like the last person to get

  them for some reason and I and people I

  get confused because I feel like here's

  I've got two of them here in front of me

  and the covers are very similar their

  white covers with red macworld and fonts

  and they both have pictures of white

  ipods on the front one of them is

  februari 2013 with one's November 2012

  november two thousand six but anyway

  it's the februari 1i like your little

  blurb on the very nice website every

  told people to go to the newsstand to

  read that many wrote airport where do

  people buy magazines i don't know where

  do you used to be you can buy them

  everywhere it's funny cause it made me

  laugh though because I did realize that

  that was thinking about i was like

  thinking your time telling people to go

  out and buy the magazine where the heck

  are they gonna going to drive to the

  airport if I if I didn't have a

  subscription in that world i'm not sure

  where I would go

  yeah addicts barnes and noble I can't

  think what magazine yeah i mean those

  places do but bars closed

  we're borders and close so in into coma

  I don't think I mean other than used was

  a great used bookstores but other than

  used bookstores we can't buy a book now

  there's no use magazine stores

  yeah Peter like that i think about it

  yesterday the moments are that is Yeah

  Yeah right student like you don't want

  to ask for you don't want to go there

  don't go into those places but the DJ

  it's funny though because your column on

  this was this the februari 2013 issue

  America and it's not online yet is that

  right yeah I always get so confused when

  I don't even do they even but what right

  what goes on light when I don't know

  what the deal is frankly what I don't

  think your thing is it online though is

  not now i know i'm almost positive that

  it is not i look forward to and and but

  it's I think they eventually do that

  though it's perfectly time though

  because i feel like its it that the the

  headline says it all why Apple drives

  people crazy and which is which is what

  ya a from the last time you were on the

  show because we were I asked you about

  it and I feel like it's really come up

  again this week all over the place like

  I feel like everybody don't know it's

  like this this pre earning say because

  what it's a week from today when apples

  earnings coming yes

  one week from today or winter or is it

  wednesdays usually Wednesday or Tuesday

  or Wednesday right well it'll be next

  what's next what's your middle of next

  week 17 things sometime next week either

  wednesday or thursday i think that Apple

  do it and I think that's part of it i

  think it's partly because we're one week

  out from their earnings and everybody's

  piling on but there is there's like this

  the the collective craziness that Apple

  drives people to sanity and stupidity

  and and just you know to turning off of

  frontal lobe is it i get a peek forever

  I feel this week I maybe i'm just

  sensitive to it maybe it's a wonderful

  start looking for that I completely

  right

  I think just just craziness that our

  craziness but I don't want to ask you to

  do a a reading of your column but what

  is that can you restate it though can

  you give the gist of it of your argument

  of what drives what about Apple drives

  people crazy

  well and I feel like they're there's a

  lot of reasons that going to and there's

  a lot of things that factors that go

  into this and I was only able to because

  of because of the size constraints of

  the back page only able to go into some

  of them but a lot of it was one of the

  factors i talked about was this sort of

  checklist mentality that people to

  understand apples product development

  process and they sort of apply the same

  view that they would to any other

  product any other product category coke

  pepsi when I mean soda cars anything and

  they the easiest way to evaluate stuff

  is just to have a checklist which is

  kind of what places like consumer

  reports use and a lot of the technology

  sites use to do evaluation of products

  because it's just easier that way and so

  they have this checklist mentality and

  they go down the checklist and apple

  products often don't mean they're not

  they're not built that way they're built

  for fit and finish and design and and

  many other factors that don't easily

  lend themselves to be evaluated by a

  checklist process and so these guys go

  through and they mostly guys and they

  say you know the samsung device better

  because it's got a bigger screen or it's

  got its got a projector and it and which

  is which is it that is true it is there

  is a phone out with a little and

  projector which i think is just utter

  madness but there is there is something

  that you can check off on a list and

  apple will never have a phone with a

  projector in it so they give more checks

  to the samsung device and apples device

  gets fewer and so they say the samsung

  device 1 and then what happens is mac

  users of Apple fans get into the

  comments and start screaming loudly that

  they don't understand what they're a

  bunch of idiots and and this starts this

  sort of feedback loop for insanity where

  these people think that we're all

  completely unreasonable because you know

  they're fully scientific process as

  determined that the samsung devices

  better and with it so therefore they try

  and come up with an explanation for why

  are we so so bent out of shape about

  this and they're only explanation that

  they can come up with is that it's a

  religion that's there been one of its

  and never gets old happened to never do

  I really never detect effort is well and

  I'm part of it too is in its it's that

  the the

  f-word faithful yeah yeah yeahs the

  Apple faithful or sometimes I still see

  I just saw yesterday and it's one of

  those things where I never know where

  there is linked to it and throw traffic

  at this crap just to make a joke or just

  let it slide but I let it slide but it

  was an argument and and the the gist of

  it was that the people who buy output

  all apple products are you know the the

  religious fervor to fuck but they called

  him the mac faithful it's the mac

  faithful who are buying the iphones and

  ipads and macs when when you know you

  just took 35 number 35 million and a

  quarter i mean yeah right

  15 minute they're expecting to sell 50

  million iphones in the last three months

  alone when they report their numbers

  next week and maintenance the matter

  where there is a little bit higher a

  little bit lower it's not going to be

  too far away from 50 million they don't

  sell 50 million max you know it sounds

  crazy like the whole idea that there's

  an apple faithful and that's who they

  sell to is wrongheaded nuts too but i

  think that that they still toss around

  the term Mac faithful to describe them

  shows just how burned into their lizard

  brains this this this view of Apple is

  ya know i think i was with you the last

  time ri-ight I put it in context of like

  first impressions and that people's

  brains like were evolutionarily wired to

  make first impression or not even first

  impressions but you know initial

  impressions of people and people don't

  really change that much overtime and so

  we're just not wired to change our mind

  about something or thing you know and

  evolutionary there's no reason to to

  really have a conception of a

  corporation because there weren't any

  but I i think our brains are just you

  know we treat them the same way we have

  emotional the way they have an emotional

  response to a person you have an

  emotional response to companies and that

  I think it's a lost a lot of people who

  formed their view of apple in the

  nineties one of ya know the company was

  in trouble and it looked like you could

  really make the argument that their

  basic strategy of of controlling the

  whole experience doing the software

  doing the hard

  we're doing things their own way that

  you could you know reasonably make a

  data back argument then that it was

  that's the wrong way to go and that

  doesn't work and that the other way the

  the pc way the open way of using you

  know Microsoft operating system and

  having a whole ecosystem of crazy you

  know configurations of hardware that's

  the way to go

  when you can back that up there and I

  feel people burn that into their mind

  that Apple is stubborn and wrong and a

  niche and designs for thuy design

  aficionados and it's not successful and

  that's the way it is and everything

  that's happened since that seems to poke

  a hole in that they just see that as a

  fluke you know if it that you know

  things will right itself things will

  right themselves yeah thnkx will right

  themselves eventually have a cute little

  phrase for people to this kind of

  thought process which is people cutting

  themselves on Occam's razor because they

  it's a simple explanation and usually

  you know they say that simple

  explanation is usually the right one

  when it's not really i mean it's not

  true in all cases and that's not true in

  this case and there's the the idea that

  the mobile landscape is exactly the same

  as the pc landscape was and then in the

  nineties is not it's really not the case

  at all

  there are certain similarities but it

  yes definitely to say that it's playing

  it's going to play out exactly the same

  as just wrong it well and here's the

  other thing I keep coming back to and I

  feel like I should

  this is that this is an idea that I

  could expand into it pretty good article

  maybe hang out i want to i want to take

  that take that down i want to get this

  down so i can just dealing primarily

  with people worrying about today is iOS

  its phones and the tablet and then when

  they say that Apple is going to run into

  the same problem that they did before

  its basic argument that android is the

  new windows and iOS is the new mac and

  what happened to apple with a mac

  against windows in the nineties is

  repeating itself now but its Android and

  Google instead of microsoft windows and

  there's a couple of problems with that

  1i Apple back in the nineties with the

  mac never ever ever had this sort of

  success that they haven't

  out with iOS in terms of the millions of

  users and brand awareness they didn't

  have the retail presence because i

  didn't even have retail stores even so

  many things that are different right

  they were not the world's most

  profitable company at some point you

  know when the mac was at its peak and

  windows 95 hadn't come out yet they

  weren't the most claiming they were

  doing better than they were in those

  dark years of 96 97 98 but they were

  never the world's most profitable

  company they were never the biggest pc

  seller they never had hit you know

  marketshare like they have with the ipad

  tablets none of these things retro but i

  would just say I would push all that

  aside and and just go back and just

  revisit the idea that something actually

  went wrong for apple in the pc industry

  they did have a couple of bad years but

  they were had really bad management at

  that right i just look at I mean look at

  where the mac is today as 25 or 26

  consecutive quarters of outgrowing the

  pc industry as a whole

  right like and it's very profitable I

  like did Apple actually lose the pc Wars

  yeah I mean I don't even see the

  argument of that right you know that

  they're yes there were a couple of years

  where things were bad but in hindsight

  and given the stability that that's

  happened in the last 15 years with the

  mac guy

  how can you argue that they even lost

  that if you add the ipad and now as

  right consider that a computer is

  there's you can't really say that I i

  think and i think it let's just call the

  pc industry let's let's separate the

  ipad from right let's say that that's

  post-pc and let's say the pc industry is

  what we thought let's draw the line at

  2007 and say before the iphone what we

  thought of is the pc in this just tops

  and lastly my laptop's running windows

  or mac or linux and you know keyboards

  and mice and pointers that that type of

  thing i would guess that if you

  separated out apples profits i'm in fact

  I don't even think i have to guess i'm

  almost certain that Microsoft is still

  the most profitable pc company that the

  microsoft makes more profits from what

  that definition i just made of pcs than

  apple and maybe Intel makes makes the

  sex

  the most i don't know but Apple

  certainly makes a lot and i'm pretty

  sure that they make more profit than any

  other company that makes pc hardware

  that they make more profit on it than HP

  or any of those companies it's certainly

  a very good interesting that nobody yet

  I feel like there's still this

  assumption that Apple Apple screwed the

  pooch with pcs in the ninth year it's

  interesting that nobody's done that that

  you don't see somebody I mean everybody

  focuses focuses so much on mobile right

  now that nobody really is are you having

  that argument anymore

  no and I feel like it the time to make

  it is fading too because the pc industry

  is shrinking and now that it's shrinking

  I mean like I I kind of Miss spoke just

  before going on the air here i posted

  the thing about about apple and what why

  is Apple expected that was a argument

  from some woman that Apple needs to

  introduce something new and I just did a

  brief piece and I just said well why

  does Apple need to do something when

  they the things that they've already got

  all profitable the mac ipad and iphone

  all profitable and growing and somebody

  pointed out that the Mac isn't actually

  growing anymore I feel like quarter

  quarter sales might even be down a

  little bit

  I what I was thinking was that they're

  still growing

  it's still outpacing the npc industry as

  a whole it's just that the pc industry

  as a whole is starting to shrink so fast

  that even with the mac doing well

  relative to all other pcs it's still

  actually shrinking quarter-to-quarter

  but that's all it's actually you know

  it's one of those like nice problem to

  have because it's all about the ipad so

  because so many fewer laptops are being

  sold because people are buying ipads

  right at I I want and I wanted to talk

  to you about that I wanted to discuss

  that as well as that which you had it

  yeah i was just looking up the mac unit

  sales numbers and there up there up

  year-over-year but just barely

  yeah it's close it's you know it's yes

  it would be tough to say growing anymore

  yet they're still strong and compared to

  their historical knowledge they are they

  are they are literally growing its its

  but they'll have to have a pretty good

  quarter to be I think they would do it i

  think they do they are still growing but

  it's not by

  it's not a lot that's not right now and

  they maybe maybe these numbers for this

  last quarter will be pretty good because

  they introduced a couple of new yeah you

  know they had new imacs and they shipped

  ladies I don't know I wonder how my

  brother sure if the third i don't i

  guess the 13-inch macbook pros their

  best-selling laptop I don't know that my

  lady might wanna think the answer retina

  or at least you can get ready at the

  animal mind if they might have a really

  good number

  yeah for for max you know anybody who

  was holding out on a new imac god forbid

  anybody wait until next week to find out

  we should also know you're not a nobody

  that it actually won't show up in the

  quarterly results so because like the

  imac didn't just another thing of

  december so maybe they didn't yeah maybe

  they're it wasn't because it wasn't

  available the whole quarter maybe it

  will be this next quarter where we'll

  see you know that spike from the new the

  new introduction yeah with the holiday

  quarter usually does better than yeah

  regardless you know computers at didn't

  maybe it's not it's it's kind of a

  big-ticket christmas gift but it still

  is the sort of thing that people will

  buy and call it a Christmas game

  I'm but the thing that I think about

  that I would i think is that it's fine

  for them to go along for a while and

  just and just try and ride the growth of

  these existing products but eventually

  the Apple that we know is more about

  going into new markets and reinventing a

  new market and staking out the high-end

  and selling you know scooping up all the

  profit and leaving the low end for

  everybody else right and I'm certainly

  not arguing that they never need to

  introduce something a major new

  disruption right I I just think though

  that it's that it's goofy to say they

  needed a media and that's the thing they

  need that's the other right there's a

  big difference between they need a major

  new disruption eventually vs they need a

  major new disruption now right now right

  and that's something else I think I

  touched on that and that column is that

  the there's this myth that Apple under

  steve jobs turned out and I think we've

  talked about this before but turned out

  a groundbreaking product pretty much

  every quarter which is right in not

  always gotta work yeah every single time

  the guy came onstage sheet obliterated

  and indeed

  and Tim Cook still has a right and it's

  been a whole year and Tim Cook stores

  hasn't done it but if you know they they

  did you could say the imac was

  groundbreaking I guess even though the

  operating system was exactly the same as

  the previous operating system and so

  they did the imac they did the ipod

  three years later and then they did the

  iphone 6 years after the ipod write

  something like that right which is way

  longer than the scope of period we're

  looking at right now from the a brief

  everybody points to the original iPad in

  2012 10

  yeah so that's what get we're coming

  close to about three years we still have

  it should hit the bare minimum for

  coming up with something new

  alright so and as somebody one of the

  things i linked to recently said I think

  it was this piece from harvard business

  review by dim pelota who made the exact

  same point you just did that they went

  six years without a disruption under

  steve jobs between the ipod and an

  iphone is that when the ipad came out

  with everybody now hails as the thing

  that they need to do something like that

  again a lot of these same people said

  that just a big ipod 2g iphone that they

  didn't even count it when it appears now

  that's usually the hallmark I mean the

  iphone is the the exception I've often

  said this that it's like the holy grail

  of Apple introductions because it was

  the one that blew everybody away it blew

  me away

  you know I'd i'm assuming a blue you I

  blew the people who get apple away and

  it blew the people who don't get apple

  away everybody even the people don't

  understand the company were like wow

  that's a thing

  yeah that's amazing what why don't you

  do that everything that was that was my

  first mac world was that one but and so

  I remember I kept saying I might've been

  sitting next to yeah right over today to

  glen freshman at the time and I think

  this is that are they all like that's it

  this is amazing

  I that was the one where everybody

  recognized it but all the other ones

  usually are met like it's a good sign

  that Apple's on something if it's

  greeted with a collective man yeah

  you're right it's getting I've kind of

  pity the guy because I feel like it's

  gonna go on his tombstone that you know

  commander tacos famous slashdot reaction

  that original ipod that wasn't apple

  releases ipod this is from slashdot

  october2013 2001 and here's here's what

  commander talking road no wireless less

  space than a nomad no man named better

  than I remember

  let him also he didn't capitalize no

  matter I feel like there's like a sort

  of disdain to that you have a giant

  apple stuff is good

  did you have an mp3 player before the

  ipod yes I did not Amy Amy had a 30

  something or another that's what I had

  to and it was a flash-based job yeah and

  it held ten songs 11 if you pick the

  right song right so it was cool in the

  sense like that if you are used to the

  song restrictions of a CD or a tape you

  know where you could have about one

  album worth you could do it and it was

  this device that was way lighter you

  know then a the spinning disc player and

  smaller and didn't you never had to

  worry about jostling it and having it

  skip or something like that but in

  hindsight it was a collective

  pain-in-the-ass where if you're sick of

  the tents on Iran he had like connected

  to your man it was but indicated i think

  it you sound jam yeah yeah yeah but what

  she used to manage right that's what I

  did too and at the time i got it just

  before going to Tokyo my wife and I

  spent three months in tokyo i was

  working working there and it was it was

  actually I mean for me it was pretty

  good because it was like it was like a

  shuffle was like an iPod shuffle because

  you just loaded up with a few saw

  you know what obviously more size

  constraint but I it i had a like a

  20-minute commute and it was it was

  perfect but you know it was funny the

  interface was so bad that i really do

  think no joke it was harder to find a

  specific song even though there were

  only ten or eleven songs total that down

  and I ipod yet you might have loaded was

  useless i'm at the interface for it was

  it was useless which is something that

  Apple rightly recognized there's no

  point in having the screen are you know

  what the songs are my hand right it

  shouldn't you're gonna play them at a

  random is going to land a random order

  great probably just made it worse right

  and it also comes to that thing it also

  gets to the point that Syracuse i made

  this week in an article about companies

  you know that the the software being the

  weak lincoln in all of these hardware

  products at CES like you know and that's

  the what was wrong with all the mp3

  players before the ipod was their

  software i mean the did the interface it

  was just horrendous and this is what is

  what i don't understand about this cheap

  iphone thing it is the way Apple made

  cheap ipods is by stripping out features

  and making a better more restricted

  device that just did less but did it

  really well and easily and i don't see

  how they're going to be able to do that

  with an iphone you can't strip out the

  platform you can't have one that's just

  a phone so what exactly area removing it

  and it seems like they're they're going

  with this

  you know to date they just been going

  with this last year's model thing right

  and how are they in and I don't

  understand if they're going to do that

  there's an intellectual laziness to the

  argument this this

  oh yes finally they're doing they're

  going to make a cheap iPhone you know

  and it's it's the same people who think

  that that's good

  welcome and good news you know but

  they're their arguments in favor of it

  are intellectually so lazy it really all

  comes down to what I call that the

  Church of market area it's just this

  religious fervor

  that market shares the most important

  thing and anything that's a move for

  market share is good in anything that

  doesn't help your market share is bad

  regardless of things like profitability

  or consumer loyalty or building out the

  platform in the same way from a

  developer's perspective

  none of that matters all that matters is

  if they sold an iphone cheaper they gain

  market share

  it's john sculley says that you

  shouldn't of itself that's it it's so

  facto it would be good for apple and if

  they don't do it it's bad and john

  skelly says you should do it you should

  not do it

  what way I didn't read this goalie thing

  that i have an opening basically say he

  is well as point was that they should

  make a small but I'm gonna cheaper

  iPhone to do just that you know and

  Scully is awesome so I know that he has

  a thing i didn't read it yet but he gets

  he's getting a bad rap because he he he

  Apple we didn't leave Apple in too bad a

  shape you know in the Newton thing

  didn't work out but boy he was sure was

  close to a thing you know I mean it's I

  just think he's but his business

  management is poorly suited to apples

  strength right but if I were him that

  said that if you know even given any

  left the company in pretty good shape

  and it was really Michael Spindler his

  successor who ran the company into the

  ground

  we never hear of any more I don't know

  what I cast he's the guy I'd like to

  hear people get it you know what do you

  think apples i get really good answer

  out of him but if I were Scully I boy I

  would never ever it get near those

  questions I just you know it that don't

  don't don't don't know what I mean

  you're the guy around Steve Jobs out of

  the company don't I would like to go and

  maybe you know and it's such a long

  complicated thing and maybe that really

  was good for jobs because it really made

  him re-evaluate things he learned

  lessons and you know you could even

  argue that that culturally next was more

  of like a sibling to Apple then its

  competitor and that the reunification in

  1998 was really more like to have that

  never should have been separated coming

  together but it never would have

  happened if jobs hadn't been kicked out

  and you know they never would have had

  next step which turned into OS 10 and

  blah blah blah but it in a nutshell vout

  to Scully screwed up you know anybody

  like I feel like he should just say

  not one nice sentence about apple and

  and say I you know but I'm not going to

  comment on our manager yeah it's like

  it's like talking about an old

  girlfriend right here it's like what was

  his name Pete best talking about beetles

  out

  yeah you know what I mean like ghetto

  given a critique of you know what was

  wrong with the white album you know what

  Pete best is doesn't do that and that

  for a good reason

  talking about management old management

  of apple i would like to go back and

  look at I haven't done this recently and

  I don't know if there's a concise place

  to look at this but what the product mix

  looked like when jobs or when Emilio

  took over because they had all those ink

  and if you included the clones

  well I mean most of it was just a mess

  yeah it really was what yeah because it

  did clones were in place before Emilio

  came in right right Amelia wasn't there

  that long now only there for like was it

  less than a year maybe a year he gets a

  dee gets a bad rap too because he'd

  actually did a pretty good job

  I mean he didn't he didn't introduce

  anything new to fix the company but he

  stopped a lot of he stopped a lot of the

  bleeding yeah you know it was like a

  triage surgeon you know I mean like an

  ER doctor who came in and yeah and at

  least fixed the stuff that was awful and

  then it was up two jobs to come in and

  and you know get some new stuff that was

  going to you know turn it around yeah

  but I yeah I would love to see like one

  of the way I could just see it as one of

  those things like on a tumblr site like

  one of those posters but yeah and

  instead of just like all apple products

  in history just what was the product

  lineup like in the summer and 96 right

  did you will do what did you on back

  then I had a a powermac 9600 which was

  an incredible fish

  and at the time and I somehow i think it

  was a machine that like de beauté at

  like four or five grand and it somehow

  quickly got superseded i forget what

  happened a lot but I got it brand-new

  right after like the next thing and come

  out and I got it for like twenty one

  hundred dollars so so it is like six

  months earlier it was like 40 it was

  retailing for like 4500 and i got it for

  2100 and use it for years it was one of

  my one of the best computers i brung ya

  I I performance 6400 which is widely

  considered a road Apple but i really

  liked that I really liked it it had

  argued that the power was it a Power

  Move was my thing called a parent

  alright yeah yeah I could it would have

  probably probably would again but a

  pretty sure that it was a was only still

  making always a 96 hardly swimming

  cuadras now it wasn't a quadrant because

  it was wasn't quadra a Quadra wasn't

  powerpc and the locators powerpc right

  okay i think there was power million and

  I remember specifically that was in 9600

  because i named my hard drive like how

  9600 my hard drive icon on that machine

  was how icon so I thought you know it's

  9600 and how was the how 9000 you know

  obvious obvious way to name your

  computer

  did you use a kaleidoscope and lots of

  icon packs and I that's a great question

  i did on and off for years

  yeah I a kaleidoscope I didn't really

  get into but i did use because I feel

  like when collaborate on kaleidoscope

  came out i had outgrown that right what

  I had what I remember using was it

  called Aaron maybe there was that we had

  and it was by the guy who eventually

  went on to make kaleidoscope with

  somebody else but it was Aaron and he

  also had one it was just an extension

  you dropped in your folder and it

  changed the look and feel of your

  windows to look like any of this

  this is crazy part is that Apple had

  purposefully seated like to Macworld mac

  user screenshots of the next generation

  mac OS the copeland and whatever the

  other Gershwin whatever the hell they're

  coming out with and they were like

  here's what it's going to look like like

  the heck they were like so desperate for

  publicity and and they're so stagnant on

  the OS is that the key people excited

  they revealed like two years in advance

  what everything was going to look like

  and so this guy was in Greg land weber

  made extension called Aaron which gave

  you that look and feel right now I think

  I was like ten dollars shareware or

  something yeah and then he came out with

  one I forgot what it was called but it

  did the same thing but made the mac look

  like the BOS with the yellow tab style

  windows right around that for a while

  yeah but like I said I'd like you said i

  think it's it's it's a niche that you

  you get for a while and then once you've

  scratched it you're done yeah all of a

  sudden you feel silly yeah maybe it's an

  age or maybe it's an agent of personal

  yeah cost players i haven't had an

  awesome time a lot of hydrogen i got

  like that i don't know i always thought

  that especially in those days with the

  system extensions that the the curve for

  power users was that as you got more and

  more into your mac as an enthusiast in a

  geek and someone who's just into it

  you added more and more extensions and

  when you you know for those of you who

  don't remember when you booted your mac

  in those days each system extension you

  had would put a little icon up at the

  bottom of the screen and you get this

  usually would just go across one row but

  if you were like really into it you get

  two rows and if you really loaded your

  system up with extensions you know you

  get the third row or even a fourth row

  and you can measure how much of a nerd

  you were by how many rows of those icons

  you got when you started your computer

  but i always thought that when you got

  to a certain point that it was like a

  bell curve and it started going down the

  other way and the people who really knew

  the mac and really got into it ran with

  his few extensions as possible because

  there was always that that sense of

  dread that it would stop as it was

  loading because it was happens sometimes

  yeah that that you'd be doing it and one

  of the icons and come out and it was

  just operate

  which is the operating system which is

  lockout while we're booting because

  you've got the conflict i know i've

  talked about this probably with dan on

  old talk show but like one of the like

  greatest software one of the greatest

  apps in the history of mac OS was

  content Hatcher yea which was a program

  whose entire point was defined and help

  you find and identify conflicts between

  system extensions and identify them and

  then you could have like you know if

  extension a witch made your cursor turn

  into a Snoopy dog when instead of a

  watch on you were waiting for something

  conflicted with the extension be which

  gave you like a system-wide applescript

  menu or something like that you could

  like set presets and say ok when i'm

  running this extension I'm not running

  this one and when i'm running the other

  one I'm not running this one and you

  could like switch between them when you

  started up and that the app I just

  remember it's like you know it's like if

  what were they doing that the app was

  written by Jeff Robin who went on to

  write sound jam which you may have heard

  of is now called items and he still at

  apple always really ok now because he

  still does the demos he did the demo of

  itunes a lot of how he still in charge

  of itunes but conflict catches a huge

  hit and it's just funny and hindsight

  that it was necessary because we're

  running these things do they eventually

  well they made they made their own right

  they made some sort of contract but i

  wasn't i wasn't nearly as powerful I

  don't like you could do it manually but

  you couldn't save sets or something like

  that

  yes happen well the gist of it though is

  that a you know ultimately long-term

  they needed to move this something like

  Mac os10 with a modern architecture

  where one process isn't going to hang

  the weather it's an extension or

  whatever isn't going to hang your whole

  computer but like the people who used to

  complain about their max locking up

  inevitably had like four rows of system

  extensions and they were all using you

  know api's that weren't meant to be used

  by third-party developers whereas if you

  just stuck to what apple gave uses ran

  the stock OS it was very very

  liable and and it was pretty hard dude

  to do that though there were so many I

  mean developers just began to ship those

  things like crazy and and you get a new

  you get a new box set of software and it

  would install 15 extensions right

  everything was an extension man you

  needed like Adobe tight man just a

  render PostScript fonts you needed an

  extension from Adobe ATM adobe type

  manager and you had the name adobe type

  managers is we really have two weeks

  here but remember you had the name adobe

  type manager with the tilde oh yeah

  there's have until the ATM because it

  had a load last because if I don't even

  know why but you had to make sure it

  loaded last night loaded in alphabetical

  order until the sorted to the bottom

  whereas most punctuation characters

  sorted to the top before the letters and

  so is tilde ATM I don't miss that

  no I don't miss that at all which was

  sort of the one with thing that windows

  I mean even as a Mac user we have to say

  that windows 95 with protected memory

  and none of that stuff was was actually

  an improvement we would bitch about the

  look and feel and how it was all stolen

  from yeah there was your final actually

  had only a stable mac that was

  antithetical to apples the the way

  things ought to it ran you know that you

  really did have to be it's almost the

  it's almost a complete polar opposite of

  the appstore mindset where the appstore

  mindset is look we vetted this stuff and

  it's in a techno groups both two levels

  of protection a we vetted it personally

  before we allowed into the storm be

  there is a sandbox that's technically

  locks this software into an area where

  it's not going to mess up your whole

  system so we can't guarantee that the

  app is going to be good but we can

  guarantee you that it's not going to

  you're not going to screw up your

  computer in any way by installing

  anything from the appstore whereas in

  that those the nineties with the late

  era of system 7 and system 8 you really

  had to almost be an expert when you

  installed anything to like make sure

  that it wasn't going to hold your system

  which was exactly the opposite of the

  system seven and eight days we really

  had to do like a before-and-after on

  your extensions folder to make sure

  that nothing sketchy had been stuck in

  there and you set a new allocated memory

  manually

  Oh remember that that seems so

  ridiculous as it's completely ridiculous

  you the human being decided how much my

  photoshop ram doubler and anyway we

  should stop talking about that because

  someone you know what though it doesn't

  feel though that it does show that apple

  yet

  Apple was not in great shape in nineteen

  ray six that's the point right and its

  name anyways but I do want to talk about

  the stock the whole stock thing

  yeah I do but let's do it before you get

  into the stock thing let's take a break

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  the an infinite refrigerator never

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  infinite refrigerator is a calendar all

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  the refrigerator look like before this

  is the type of app where it's kind of

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  using but you're really not Yugi and you

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  going to come until you've been using it

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  years and you have a whole bunch of

  mementos stored in this thing and then

  you can use the calendar view to go back

  and see what it looked like six months

  or a year ago and just sort of page

  through time like that bridges the whole

  fridge the whole collage type layout

  that you make or any individual photo

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  if through the app via email I message

  twitter facebook all the standard iOS

  sharing stuff so how much does it cost

  here's the deal it's an ipad app built

  for iOS 6 download the app from the

  appstore absolutely free free download

  but here's the hitch you only get one

  fridge to start with its place for blue

  now you can make more than one of them

  but if you want to use the other colors

  they've got five other styles and colors

  and fridges it's an in-app purchase 199

  so it's a free app downloaded there's no

  limits to it but you're using the blue

  fridge you want to use other colors too

  box-to-box to unlock the whole app super

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  what a great deal their website go to

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  last thing I noticed is the in the

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  little virtual kitchen service around in

  your fridge they even have a toaster and

  you can write messages on a piece of

  toast and keep that in there so I feel

  like there's something in here and you

  could tie this together with that Tim

  Cook line last year about combining a

  toaster in refrigerator but those things

  are probably not going to be pleasing to

  the user

  well here's an app that combines a

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  actually pretty cool so maybe maybe Tim

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  dot-com so the stock

  yes I'd what do you want what do you

  want to say about this doc I try not to

  write out the stock but I feel like

  what's happened recently is so

  extraordinary that it's so absurd that

  you can't not talk about it right

  I I nice try to spend at least a little

  bit of time trying to understand the

  situation with the options with the call

  options on this why because you had

  posted a link to something from november

  explaining why they're there is a large

  block of options out there so that with

  with prices in the range of like 552 800

  or something like that so it is it is in

  the best interest of these money

  managers who have those options out

  there to try to keep apples price down

  until they expire

  I don't know what I don't know enough

  about the stock market and what like an

  option like that cost for cost but let

  you know the gist of it though is it

  back in the summer when the stock was

  flying really high like up around seven

  hundred dollars but in and spent most of

  the summer and that 600 people who

  bought these options bought them options

  come with have an expiration date and it

  seems like a lot of them expire this

  week right

  aah at price points let's say like you

  said 550 to 650 or something like that

  people who thought the stock would still

  be like that so you'd buy the option

  ah

  or let's say i don't know i don't know

  why I'm phone is out there ten bucks i

  don't know maybe it's higher it's got to

  be hot maybe it's higher but you by the

  option for ten dollars you don't know

  the stock you're not buying a stock

  you're just buying the right to buy the

  stock at a certain right price at a

  certain date and you're betting that

  come january nineteen apple stock will

  still be up at like seven hundred

  dollars and your option to buy the stock

  at five hundred and fifty dollars means

  you can buy a whole bunch of shares of

  apple at 550

  come January and it's already worth

  seven hundred dollars because that's

  what the stock is that and then you make

  money you made money by betting that the

  stock would be higher on that date then

  the option price and on that could

  converse side the person who sells these

  options is making sort of the opposite

  bet and if come the date that the

  options expire the stock is under that

  striking price for the option they win

  because they keep the money that you

  paid for that ten bucks per share that

  you paid for the option to buy it and

  they still own share that they had to

  buy to cover these options if the person

  that actually bought them but because

  it's under the price they don't have to

  sell it right is that did that sound

  right that sounds right to me

  yes right so that there's all these

  institutional investors who in and the

  guy you know and I guess these options

  you can you can look up what the options

  are mean it wasn't like he was making

  stuff up like like we do he was actually

  found on you know all these are you know

  he was telling all the options that are

  out there just at five hundred and fifty

  dollars and it was like I don't six

  hundred million dollars worth of them

  and that wasn't counting the ones at

  higher prices so it's easy to say that

  there's well over a billion dollars at

  stake if Apple's stock is like at 500 or

  lower in the next two days

  yeah which in turn leads to another

  people who have those options certainly

  motivates them to sort of poo-poo

  badmouth the stock and make you know

  these arguments like we've been talking

  about earlier in the show about why

  apple's and trouble and that they're not

  doing too well and

  stock is down and we should say that the

  bulk of this this recent decline and

  apples

  well I don't know where it's at now

  actually but the sort of the doldrums

  that they're in right now is because a

  couple of publications came out and said

  that iphone 5 demand was soft based on

  the fact that they had heard from some

  people

  nameless people that Apple had cut

  orders for iphone 5 screens in half

  right without really getting into what

  exactly that means right i mean here's

  the the wall street journal version of

  it there are 22 publications that had

  this I guess sunday night to monday

  morning like it ran on the front page i

  think of the journal monday and it was

  knee-high and I kk e is Japanese paper i

  don't know if it's like the Japanese

  equivalent of the wall street journal or

  what but then that but it's japanese and

  so what I know about it is all

  secondhand its people i guess can read

  Japanese and and translating it and the

  journal which seemingly had the exact

  same information here's how the journal

  story started and the headline was Apple

  cuts orders for iphone parts Apple

  incorporated has cut its orders for

  components for the iphone 5 due to

  weaker than expected demand people

  familiar with the situation said monday

  so there's like no if ands or butts in

  that sentence right i mean they're not

  saying who the people familiar with the

  situation are never going to really

  clarify but that's if you take that at

  face value if you read The Wall Street

  Journal ending that well it's the wall

  street journal so you know if you read

  it must be true there's no hemming and

  hawing or well it you know there's two

  things in there one that the components

  were cut by half

  no I didn't say that in the first

  paragraph but it does say in the next

  paragraph it says apples orders for

  iphone screens for the january-march

  quarter for example has dropped to

  roughly half of what the company had

  previously planned to order two of the

  people said so half is a huge number

  that's huge it doesn't matter what you

  know what what it was from her too

  and they don't hammer horror say maybe

  it's or that it's a sign of weaker than

  expected demand for the iphone 5 they

  say that the journal says it's due to

  weaker than expected demand and you know

  the stock took a bath on that over the

  next two days I mean really will trick

  to get dropped by i forget like a market

  cap why's it drop by like a hundred and

  seventy million dollars billion dollars

  which is like bigger than all but like

  maybe like the 10 biggest corporations

  in the world like they dropped in value

  by more than the size of most big

  companies and reunite originally they

  used to be and i wrote a lot about it

  this week i don't think the whole thing

  is pile of horseshit

  I really do at and at the the nikkei i

  won from Japan gave actual numbers it

  said that they said that the original

  order was for 65 million displays

  apparently apparently the journal had

  that in there originally and then right

  and then remove took it out like sunday

  night online they had that in there and

  I don't think it don't think it appeared

  in print and by the time i read the

  story monday morning it wasn't in there

  that they had the same thing but they

  didn't replace it with another number

  which to me is a huge problem when you

  say it's dropped by half but you don't

  say what what you don't even give a

  ballpark range for what the original

  numbers were there's no way to ever

  verify that right there because then

  come next quarter apple can and will

  release and say how many iphones they

  sold and we can take a pretty good guess

  that what percentage of them or iPhone 5

  is based on the average selling price

  and whatever that number is you could

  say well the journal was right because

  Apple expected to sell double that no

  matter what it is because they didn't

  give the number

  yeah it's like when amazon says that

  they've sold the most handles ever in a

  quarter but they never tell you how many

  they sold so who knows you know maybe

  they went from 10 to 11 right or that

  the you know I forget amazon always does

  that they never reveal how many candles

  they've sold but they'll say things like

  it you know a hundred and fifty percent

  higher than the previous record for

  kindle sold in the quarter

  yeah but it's you know a hundred and

  fifty percent of ? and if they could

  guess if the number add it's just none

  of it is that makes sense because it's

  it's unlikely that they would order 65

  million screens for the current quarter

  right it really makes no sense and

  nobody seemed to question this hour

  well I did but it seems like most people

  people who should know better never

  questioned it that it's such an unusual

  number because there's the most i've

  ever sold in a quarter is 37 million

  that's iphones and a quarter and that

  was last year's holiday quarter and this

  year there's the consensus among

  analysts both the wall street ones and

  the independent analysts like Andy's a

  ques you know have a much more accurate

  track record is about 50 million so they

  would go from 37 million last year 250

  million this year year-over-year for the

  holiday quarter and nobody is really

  picking a number much higher than 50 and

  the next quarter after the holiday

  quarter they've always sold for less

  than the holiday quarter because there's

  so many people who buy them as holiday

  gifts and now the last two years the

  holiday quarter is when the new iphone

  came out so you get the double whammy of

  both the people who are like my gosh

  you're like I want the new iphone as

  soon as it comes out in order in that

  quarter and you get the holiday gift

  bump like so last year they went from 37

  million in the holiday quarter 35

  million in this January to March quarter

  which is like I think roughly five

  percent drop in all previous years

  there's some level of dropped from

  holiday to the next quarter but yet if

  you take this 65 million number at face

  value then somehow Apple expected thirty

  percent growth in the january-march

  quarter after the holiday quarter even

  though there's no historical reason for

  it and they're not introducing a new

  model or anything like that it just

  doesn't make any sense

  like if they actually wanted to order

  that many displays ah it seems like

  somebody was drunk right

  although i did I guess the other

  argument i've seen which I hadn't

  thought of the other argument i've seen

  any horses did you you know and

  typically the smart bed basket but

  somebody pointed out that it could just

  be that they're getting

  higher-than-expected yields that maybe

  they you know have expected that only

  four out of every five displays they

  ordered would be up to their stuff and

  that they're finding that you know

  ninety-five percent of them are passing

  requirements so that they may be they

  originally planned to order 65 million

  not because they expected to buy sell 65

  million iphones but that they needed 65

  million to sell 45 million because they

  expected 20 million of them to be duds

  or something like that she's so there's

  other arguments you can make but it's

  still the 65 million thing just does not

  it doesn't make any sense now and it

  doesn't make any sense that they would

  need to cut it in half due to this is

  the bigger part I think we're regardless

  of the actual number the bigger part is

  whether such a cut-off would be due to

  weaker than expected demand because

  there seems to be no sign that there's

  weaker-than-expected right now they only

  want us across the border saying that

  they expect 50 million iphones sold this

  quarter with the quarter they're going

  to announce next week verses 37 million

  last year which is higher not lower and

  they only caught up with demand about a

  month ago right they spent most of that

  the holiday quarter with you know you go

  to the website with many times when you

  ordered one they spent most of you know

  up until I think December they you know

  they hadn't production hadn't caught up

  with demand they clearly been making

  them as fast as they could this

  ridiculous a minute of course the usual

  collection of nerdy wells have been

  saying seaweed we know we told you that

  iphones nobody out nobody likes iphones

  anymore right and the thing I got you

  know an undated with his accusations of

  you know I think what I sort of got one

  guy called me Baghdad Bob but you know

  it's like I don't know it's that guy

  can't win

  you know I mean there's no use worrying

  about it

  I mean but this is you know this is why

  I drink but this is no way at you know

  they're so convinced that doesn't matter

  how many holes you logical solid holes

  you can poke and say boy this just

  doesn't add up

  and.and point2 interesting ways of

  looking at why it doesn't add up

  it's it's the fact that there's so many

  people and it gets back to you know what

  we're talking with beginning of the show

  who are so convinced that Apple it is

  set to fall and that the iphone is

  collapsing that they just took that

  journal story and and that's it that's

  the gospel right and so anybody who's

  arguing otherwise just grasping at

  straws because they're below an apple

  yeah because it's a religion fall

  because it's a religion

  yeah so next week there's a couple

  things to look for a little look to see

  what happens with apple's share price

  because of these options right and then

  look to see at the conference call for

  the conference call how many how many

  iphones this is old which you should do

  every quarter but right i do wish that

  they would break it i guess you know I

  can I mean we should be lucky because

  Apple reveals a lot more sales data than

  a lot of its competitors I mean like I

  said amazon has never revealed how many

  candles they've sold of any kind google

  never reveals how many android phones

  are so they just have that weird

  activation number that they never define

  what the hell yawns yeah

  in the end you know they certainly don't

  reveal numbers of their own nexus stuff

  which they would no more than just

  activation they should know exact sales

  numbers nobody really reveals any of

  that so it gives you wish I mean greedy

  though I wish that apple would break it

  down and say we saw this morning iphone

  5 this many fours and this many 4 s's

  yeah I guess so apparently i guess it's

  not it's not required for audit purposes

  to do that no but that you can kind of

  backwards engineer at tho by at least

  getting the ballpark estimate by looking

  at the average selling price and right

  through analytics but it's kind of weird

  that app developers and website mobile

  websites looking at their statistics can

  kind of suss out how many although i'm

  not sure if a website can tell if your

  iPhone's and iphone 5

  I think it would just know the version

  number i guess it's only the app

  developers that get the analytics that

  they can kind of tell you know what the

  cpu is you can tell my story you can

  tell by screen you can tell by screen

  size right can you do the and it doesn't

  tell the screen size

  oh it does i I don't know in that

  instance you can I guess I'm but guess

  what I'm saying is I don't know how do I

  i know i said i guess that does report i

  guess since the iphone it does report

  the screen size you can tell because the

  only iphone with the 1136 pixels height

  is the iphone 5 but it's weird that

  apple reports more than another million

  apple which is famously close secrets

  your damn serious and reports more about

  what they sell them other companies

  still yeah and we know part of it is

  that they're not really secretive about

  everything they're really mostly

  secretive about what they're going to do

  right and they're not so secretive about

  way they don't have done you know and I

  feel you know I've always said this to

  that you know and then still continues

  even now that jobs gone but jobs

  explanations on stage talking about

  products really i always thought they

  were incredibly insightful and and

  honest about where the where Apple was

  coming from when they made the thing you

  know that there was like an honest

  explanation of here's what we were

  thinking we could do and here's how we

  did it

  yeah i went back and watch the imac

  unveiling which I'd never and i think

  i've actually seen that before I don't

  think i'm losing what's he wearing like

  a weird suit yeah he was wearing ass 12

  who's wearing a jacket

  it was like a suit with us with a

  button-up shirt button at the top of

  that i was weird as I guess it's sort of

  like if you ever thought like you know

  in the heyday and that the whole decade

  long run if you ever like cross your

  mind like why does he wear the same

  stuff every day on then you look at some

  of the stuff he wore before we settled

  on that and you're like maybe he was

  right to settle on the black certain

  genes and that's it

  get some goofy outfits in this first

  couple years

  yeah he swore us like a sweater vest for

  all for a long time right you have the

  do you have a link to that youtube is on

  youtube

  yes it doesn't your i can find it for

  you should tell me don't put that in the

  show channel

  yeah but it's interesting though it's

  just funny how am I eat out the mouse is

  like the best master never make it

  you know you could get people fired up

  around that you know this this is why on

  is a enormous fan of the hockey puck are

  you kidding me loved it and she African

  she tweeted about it a couple months ago

  and a couple of other of our nerd

  friends a couple of them chimed in and

  said you know I liked it too

  it was not universally despised although

  i think it was majority despised yeah I

  had I had a little like they use this

  old like this clip on things these

  plastic like I think clip-on tie but

  basically a piece of plastic you clicked

  on it to make it a more like a normal

  Mouse yeah I I never had a computer that

  came with one of the brown my so I never

  really spent a lot of time with it

  I mean it's but i guess the argument the

  main argument about it was that because

  it was perfectly round there was no way

  to tell which way it would when you just

  held it right now looking at was the

  necessary i was with the orientation was

  yeah yeah and I did not a fast a lot of

  other is uncomfortable to it was wide

  width

  width

  I like because it just fit that felt

  good but I couldn't couldn't tell which

  one's going to let me do the second

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  here's a tweet from Terra man minn

  alright trying out talks coffee your

  sponsorship of groupers talk show worked

  I'm excited well I guarantee she's gonna

  be happy that she did it

  here's another one Matthew rather long

  time listener the talk show is ready

  tweeted I thought the coffee from the

  big-box membership store was ok then i

  tried talks coffee can't drink that shit

  anymore i'm too that's how good talks

  that's the end I'm telling you that's

  the biggest downside to talks is you

  sign up for tongues they before you've

  signed up they've gone around the world

  source the best beans from all around

  the globe

  they've roasted them themselves just

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  them up and then they send them out to

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  the only downside to this is the best

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  tweets and emails from people who are

  you know why I listened to it I tried it

  you were right it's great

  I don't don't think about is something

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  you'd end the best part is a great deal

  this is to me is the the genius of their

  business model is this free trial

  because nobody wants to sign up for a

  subscription site unseen no matter how

  many good things i say about them

  they're not nobody why I feel like a lot

  of people you need nobody wants to say

  I'm gonna spend you know however much

  money a month and then I've got if I

  don't like it if I'm not satisfied i

  gotta back out

  you don't have to take my word for it

  free trial they'll just send you some

  and you're going to try and then you're

  going to think when I was not I should

  have just listened to him and paid for

  it and signed up so go ahead talk story

  do x.org go check them out if you drink

  coffee you're gonna thank me later

  what else we got left on the agenda

  here's a question I and again I I this

  is one of the reasons why i somehow i

  sometimes feel out of place talking

  about the stock is I'm not really a

  stock expert and in my apples stock

  price is not really the reason that I

  follow them i don't own apple stock

  because I don't feel like it would be

  appropriate with what i do but i do feel

  though that it's it is like it when it

  really fluctuates like it has recently

  it it's a level of absurdity that even

  somebody like me is not an expert can

  can see that this just is irrational you

  know that it's not built on based on

  what what investors called the

  fundamentals meaning the numbers right

  there's there's so many it's like 12

  dimensional chip is like trying to

  understand well dimensional chest

  there's so many other things that go

  into it so many and so many things based

  there just straight-out gambling that

  have nothing to do with the company at

  all like these options like these option

  calls that it it seems like they're just

  better off not worry about it

  I so there's a there's a measurement of

  a company's stock price called the the

  p/e ratio price-to-earnings and again

  correct me if I'm wrong but the basic

  idea is you take the company's profits

  and you multiply it by a certain or you

  take the company's stock price and you

  divide it by what their prophets are and

  that's the p/e ratio in other words the

  price of the stock versus how much

  profit they're making I guess quarterly

  and like the average for the S&P 500 is

  15 in other words the average stock

  price of a big company is about 15 times

  the profit of the company and you know

  some companies hire some companies are

  lower but you know 15 and to me seems

  like a reasonable i did that somehow it

  makes sense to me that seems about right

  what 15 is a you know for years

  quarterly you know so a company is worth

  about four years times its profits I

  don't know sounds about right

  Apple's is it like 10 and if you

  subtract the hundred billion dollars in

  cash that they have in the bank which

  seems fair because if you're just going

  to say here's what the company's worth

  which is what the stock price is

  supposed to represent the cast you

  should be able to just subtract from

  that if you subtract that massive amount

  of cash

  it's nine so there-there p/e ratio is

  way less than the average company yet

  they've been in the midst of this

  incredible growth over the last couple

  of years and the number that gets me is

  is Amazon Amazon p/e ratio and I'm not

  making this up

  it's it's like 2,600 this is I stood

  it's not an exaggeration there you know

  amazon lives in like this I i will link

  to a magical acs article while ago that

  Amazon lives in this world worth

  investors and do not care about their

  profits that their you know their

  stories is not as bears no relation to

  their profitability whatsoever there the

  market share poster child right and a

  little I think it's almost the opposite

  right there is getting really didn't you

  in front for you in the reason are they

  have profits massive profits i just i

  don't get that it's it seems like it's

  still the same old dot-com bubble

  mentality where do they do yeah they're

  not making any money but eventually

  eventually they'll make money on amazon

  has been doing this for 15 years

  yeah I feel like with amazon amazon too

  interesting and I don't have to admit I

  don't get that strategy like to me it's

  just it's not just because it's apple

  but I i do something and I think it's

  part of what just appeals to me about

  the whole thing is that I understand

  what Apple's doing is making money every

  time they sell something and then just

  putting that money away and not

  squandering it now i understand that

  that's not how I behaved in real life

  I'm a command that squander every dollar

  but i wish that i had the discipline to

  build up a huge you know

  hundred-million-dollar dashboard and

  then before the show when I was making

  notes i anchor rope down the hundred i

  want to talk about this and I wrote down

  a hundred billion cash and I thought

  that can't be right know that it it's 10

  billion right can't be a hundred but it

  is it's a hundred have a hundred billion

  dollars in cash that they're just

  sitting on that when I wrote it down it

  seemed like a preposterous number right

  it does seem preposterous seems crazy

  right but it doesn't seem to have any

  kind of value in it doesn't it doesn't

  become valuable in the stock and you

  know and I you know I guess you know I

  you could argue maybe reasonably that

  the run-up that Apple had last year over

  the summer when the stock price reached

  its peak maybe that was a little

  irrational to just as irrational as the

  dive that it's taken in the last three

  months but even at its peak their PE

  ratio was still like never got more than

  like 12 or 13 it still never reach the

  average p/e ratio of a company in the

  SMP 500 that you could make a reasonable

  case that only looking for a PE value of

  the average company SMP 500 that Apple

  stock should you know should be up and

  around under 850 or something like that

  i had a screen capture that I had for a

  little while and finally eventually just

  deleted because i didn't know where to

  post it but it was a our local paper at

  I follow their twitter account and I

  think they're just they're point wire

  stories for this stuff because they

  don't they don't follow this correctly

  themselves but it was back in october i

  think when they when apple and both

  Apple and Amazon

  supporting their their quarterly numbers

  and apple had a good quarter missed the

  analyst estimates of course again it but

  a amazon reported a loss if i remember

  correctly

  ya think the last quarter and also to

  like a pretty big loss like 247 million

  dollar yeah and both of that both of the

  both of the tweets which came within 10

  15 minutes of each other something like

  that said what about each of them apple

  mrs. mrs. analyst estimates amazon mrs.

  analyst estimates that is as if the two

  both had equally bad quarters right when

  amazon reported a big loss and apple

  made a whole crapped on a mine

  yeah and you've written about this

  pretty pretty well about the this this

  that the one Apple does miss the

  analysts projections that it it is so

  the way that gets played in the stories

  is so misleading it is and again it's

  like the everyone to be a reflexive

  defend apple at all costs and paint no

  matter what the news is good for Apple

  but it's this emphasizes miss miss miss

  miss miss and doesn't mention that it

  was the Miss involved 8.2 million

  dollars in profit right and it's sort of

  i mean i think the idea if you know if

  you wanted if you want to take their

  point of view is that it's an industry

  shorthand for if you have money and

  apple you might have over you might have

  just overestimated because you know if

  you were betting on what the analysts

  said then they weren't quite right but

  for the average person it doesn't they

  don't they don't understand that you

  just think Apple had a bad quarter right

  and and it's up you know and it's

  entirely yet because you don't they

  don't put that context in their right

  and it's it's emphasizes only they it

  emphasizes only the mists and the missus

  just of numbers an analyst pull out of

  their hats

  I mean I not entirely that you know i

  spaced on something but it's the right

  they've got spreadsheets that they're

  looking at but they're just making

  a guess and and I guess it hopefully in

  most cases and educated guess but it's

  still just a gas and you look at things

  like well year-over-year how are they

  doing and it's up you know even in the

  corner with the miss it was op up it's

  just that I it just wasn't up as high as

  a lot of these analysts had guests and

  it's just you know and again i'm not

  saying that they shouldn't report bad

  but it just seems like the way that they

  presented is so heavy-handed and I think

  part of it even if you don't even have

  to be at having apple bias a specific

  anti-apple bias but i think it's this

  mindset that we've written so many good

  things about apple and their success

  that we need to emphasize anything

  that's bad and the name of objectivity

  you know I think that you know it gets

  back to wide everybody jumped on this

  antennagate story you know spice such

  fervor that well here's something we can

  say that Apple did that is imperfect and

  now we're going to hammer it into the

  ground

  it's very strange to me that they come

  up with such a vastly different numbers

  it is and I'll tell you know here's the

  point I wanted to make was that it seems

  like apples getting hurt because for a

  long time Apple would offer their own

  guidance then they still do I think

  they're legally obligated to that the

  end after they report the last quarter

  they offer guidance for the coming

  quarter and apple notoriously offered

  sandbag guidance you know in other words

  you know they was not what Apple

  honestly expected to report it was it

  was a number that it was an unbeliever

  shirts famous country hell where ya at

  this

  it was a number of analysts predict

  their their numbers and maybe a little

  you know somewhat higher than apples

  project own projections but all of them

  were short of reality and I think that

  what's happened over the last year that

  you know they've finally caught on that

  Apple's right projections are so low

  that they've adjusted their own to be

  even higher to compensate and that

  they've really more gotten good right

  right it's take that even the miss that

  they reported last quarter wasn't that

  far

  off it was actually so that gets really

  not so much that Apple missed or four

  came way below it was that these

  analysts projections are projections you

  want to be spot-on for once instead of

  coming in way under and having apple

  blow them away right which is another

  yeah it's just another element of the

  the whole thing that makes this all so

  incomprehensible and I throw my hands up

  that trying to figure this stuff out and

  it doesn't seem like you know you always

  think well maybe maybe the people who

  are really into this stuff they know all

  this and put it really i don't i don't

  get that sense now and at the analytics

  you know honest and I bet most of the

  people to listen to the show you know

  about a lot of doing some apple stock

  and hopefully the way that they do it

  it's just buy it when somebody you know

  like last week like when somebody print

  something stupid and then the stock

  drops down by a dent and then just put

  it away and don't look at it and and you

  know assume that it's gone up that and

  we'll keep going up in the long run over

  time but that if you i-i've if i owned

  apple stock and like looked at the

  numbers and week-to-week and jackass by

  jackass I i would have indigestion so

  much of it and the thing is it it's

  there's that famous phrase that's always

  in if you get like a statement from your

  mutual fund company it's like past

  performance is no indication of future

  future performance or something like

  that right and it gets back to that

  point about whether or not Apple needs a

  hit and whether or not they sold a lot

  of iphones this past quarter and that's

  that's done it's right it's the stuff

  that they're going to do in the future

  that's going to get you

  growth potential out of stock it will

  provide provided the market doesn't do

  something you know dumbass like it's

  been doing the last last week so you can

  I you kind of have to decide based on

  the history of the company

  I mean I guess you basically based this

  judgment on the history of the company

  and the management of the company

  whether or not you think that they're

  going to be able to do something in the

  future that's going to be a big hit

  going to get a lot of growth out of and

  I don't understand in VA you could say

  that Steve Jobs is the only one that

  could innovate apple and so therefore i

  don't think the company's gonna do you

  know they're just gonna make iPhones and

  iPads and then max for the rest of

  forever and never will never have

  another breakout product but I don't

  that seems incredibly short-sighted to

  me and I don't want to stop but just I

  like the thing and it's I you know that

  I I just feel like all of them all of

  their executives but you know Tim Cook

  in particular since he's the one you

  know he's the one who sits on the throne

  now I have my hat is off to him for just

  not blowing his stack going nuts because

  there's no way he can win and he surely

  knows it right so he's getting

  excoriated now because Apple hasn't

  released a major new innovation

  disruption since he took over as CEO

  ah and if and when eventually they do I

  did guaranteed 9 x 9 99 times out of a

  hundred ninety-nine chance out of a

  hundred it's going to be dismissed as

  wow that's terrible

  this guy's no Steve Jobs and even if

  jobs had died two years earlier and the

  ipad exactly as it is exactly as it

  wasn't 2010 was introduced under tim

  cook that whole it's just a big iphone

  man you know that's it it's just it's 99

  inside phone

  it would have been ratcheted up to 11 as

  it's nothing but a big iphone total turd

  this guy is no Steve Jobs all he did is

  take the iphone and make it 10 inches

  guy's an idiot apples-to-apples do and

  they still would have sold just as many

  right because real people that soon out

  to they go and yeah store for the most

  part this is cool this is cool little

  but i think it would have been you know

  and and you know I i expect that

  whatever in apple's next big thing is

  it's you know like almost all of their

  things that have been innovations are

  don't look like innovations to the to

  the people watching right away you know

  to most people that they're you know

  this is not how it works

  and that's you know under jobs there was

  enough faith that they would just say

  you know kind of a kind of a turkey but

  now that he's gone and everybody is

  looking for this doom situation this

  Apple can't function without Steve Jobs

  the exact same thing is just going to be

  turned up to 11

  yeah so it'll be interesting to see when

  they do release something and I i

  personally don't have any doubt that

  eventually within the next few years the

  valenar some some new market i would

  think they have to yeah i think it's

  inevitable but i just don't know that

  you you know it it'll happen when I

  don't you know you can't make it happen

  right you know it's it's there is no way

  to make the iphone sooner yeah you can

  argue that this is wow it took six years

  between the original ipod until they did

  the iphone why couldn't they do that

  sooner but I did there was no way I mean

  the iphone was so ahead of its time

  technologically there was I just don't

  think there was any way to make it

  before and then you get hips are

  touchscreen of the technology existed

  you could argue that the fact that I

  mean this is the i know people are gonna

  roll her eyes with this but the fact

  that they haven't introduced something

  is that just proof that the company is

  actually still the same because

  companies that are bad throw crap out

  the door every day right and responds

  immediately to whatever is going on in

  the market and try to match what's

  happening whereas Apple sits on their

  stuff and make sure they get it right

  before they send it out the door which

  is why these things only come out every

  36 years were right and in the meantime

  they're going to keep doing what they've

  always done which is iterate on the

  stuff that's already out there and

  popular as aggressively as they can and

  it iteration to iteration never really

  making any single great leap forward but

  yet you know and and with a little bit

  even just a little bit of hindsight

  making remarkable progress right i mean

  three years ago they were still selling

  the iphone 3gs I mean you compare the

  iphone 5 2 3gs and it's you know it's

  like night and day

  you know that's the other thing that

  kills me about these the the pessimists

  on Apple that say that like

  I keep saying over and over again that

  innovation and smartphones over like

  smartphones are done so they've got to

  move on to the next big thing because

  smartphones have been completely

  commoditized and I got you nuts

  it's it's like I can't believe anybody

  would think that when there's so much

  more room for faster computing and

  faster graphics and thinner phones and

  more durable materials and I mean just

  look at the camera alone is making such

  unbelievable progress year-over-year I

  mean that's like the one thing where i

  can almost tell like when I look back at

  like family photos and stuff like that

  like I look back at the ones i snapped

  on my iphone two years ago and it they

  look terrible

  like just from a technical perspective

  just camera technology alone is is it's

  there's so much room for potential for

  for you know new hardware and and stuff

  going forward

  yeah makes me not haaa i'm going to see

  at macworld oh yeah i'm going back room

  yeah I like that word thats that's worth

  being on the show people everybody out

  there everybody should go to macroplex

  yeah what is that two weeks two weeks

  ago been so we'll be there two weeks two

  weeks from today I think I'm going on a

  panel two weeks from today you want any

  patterns or anything you speak I not

  that I know of

  not yet anyway usually i often get drawn

  into something late because I always

  book late are you looked you're going i

  am booked i am now booked as of a couple

  days ago but yeah looking forward series

  have is no rare on the talk show where I

  get to see i'll see you soon is too soon