Under the Radar 53: Seasonality
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welcome to under the radar a show about
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independent iOS app development I'm
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Marco Arment and I'm David Smith under
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the radar is never longer than 30
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minutes so let's get started so today we
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as we were sort of right now at the
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beginning of November it seemed a good
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time to talk a little bit about
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seasonality and the way seasonality can
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apply both to our work in terms of the
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things we're doing what we're promoting
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and the timing of when we launch new
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products or updates as well as a little
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bit just the seasonality of the work
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itself and the way that kind of works
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for us but especially I kind of it's
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something that comes to mind because in
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the early days of the App Store
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perhaps in the the first maybe three or
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four years there was a very strong
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seasonality to downloads and sales and
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especially in the sense that like the
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day Christmas Day the day after
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Christmas were massively huge sales days
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for Fermi back in those days and it was
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a reliable predictable thing that I
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would need as best I could to gear my
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entire business towards being available
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then because those few days would make
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up a non insignificant percentage of my
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revenue for the year like it wasn't like
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50% more it was maybe like 10 percent of
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my revenue but still getting ten percent
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of your revenue in one week of the year
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meant that it was very important to line
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everything up and I remember doing lots
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of work where especially back when app
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review could take a very long time you
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know you'd be looking at at least 10
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days ish for a review and so you'd have
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all these things that I needed to line
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up to get you know submitted at the very
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latest by the beginning of December so
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that I could make sure I if I had a
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rejection cycle I could get it approved
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in time and you can't be happy in this
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mindset towards that and then I would
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say increasingly that is less though the
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way I think I think both Britos the
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impact of that has perhaps diminished
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slightly but also I think I just think
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about seasonality a bit more generally
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now and I think it's probably helpful to
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not just view it as everything is on
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that one day but I think there is a
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something to be said for thinking about
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your product and thinking about are
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there events or things that you can
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latch onto that would make sense to time
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you're launched and in two also in terms
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of promotion with Apple like this is
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something that I start to think about a
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lot more recently is how it's like the
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Apple AppStore editorial team's job is
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to find things that they can promote and
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to promote in a relevant way for them
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and they're always looking they're
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putting together to constantly these
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different sort of lists and bundles of
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applications to try and promote and
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thinking of ways to time things so that
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I can be part of that has become
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something that it seems like
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increasingly makes sense but it is still
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something that I think about as we're
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coming in to the end of the year and I
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still have in the back of my mind like
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I'm is everything gonna be inlined up
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there's everything gonna be ready and I
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think in general there's a strange
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aspect to that of I probably should
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always be worried about making sure that
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everything is buttoned down and ready
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but at least maybe these little
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seasonality things are good reminders to
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me that I'm starting to think like what
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are the App Store ratings looking like
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in all my apps are there things that I
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should do to make sure that's the case
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if I had I'd update with a bad set of
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reviews for whatever reason like do I
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need to get an update out reset my
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reviews and then try and mark it around
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improving that rating like these all
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these little things that are probably
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good to do all year round but especially
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probably good to do around big events
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when sales for downloads are gonna be
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higher yeah but I mean as you mentioned
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like it is really hard to tell when
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those times are gonna be now I mean
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they're you know the few obvious
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predictable ones or you know things like
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the holiday season and and new iPhone or
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new iPad release as I would say those
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those are the big ones but even those I
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think the reason why that we've seen
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over time things like Christmas Day and
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Christmas week being lower than in
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I think the main reason why is that
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we're seeing fewer people who were
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getting their very first iOS device on
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I think the there's much more people who
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are just getting replacement or upgrade
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devices or you know new customers might
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be just being more spread out throughout
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the rest of the year now who are new to
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the platform like people who are
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converting from Android if they want to
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so you know when when you get your very
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first device you go on an app spree and
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you go get a bunch of apps that you
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might like and want to fill it up or
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when when you're just getting a new
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phone for the year or your your second
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or third iPad then there's less there's
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a lot less of that like you know new
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apps pre that you go on and so I think
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that plays a big part of why like make
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your gift-giving holidays are no longer
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but you know a big thing for most app
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developers but you know a new a new iOS
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device releases obviously can be
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especially if you're like you know like
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you often do if you're taking advantage
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of a new API that or a new a new type of
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app that just became available with new
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hardware then obviously you're starting
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basically from zero so like those days
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you'll have really big you know those
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long cuz you'll have a really big
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potential there but it's also hard to
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tell now because we're seeing our income
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be spread out more as we switch more to
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ad based and in-app purchase based
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revenue models you know like it you know
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if you had you know what but we used to
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have pretty much all of it which would
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paid upfront apps paid up for an app
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stay really great on Christmas Day
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because you paid to get the app right
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then you wanted to use it these days if
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you get you know you might get increased
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downloads that day but your revenue
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might not show that for a while so it's
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it's all kind of blending together now
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but I think ultimately what it comes
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down to is the the saturation of the App
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Store so you know it makes it make
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everything harder makes it all the
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competition tighter and everything and
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makes each individual app have kind of
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lower lower Peaks I think and also just
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the fact that so many people already
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have iOS devices and the the new sales
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are more to people who were existing
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customers than the new customers yeah
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there is still something that I see that
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in my in my own time my own sort of even
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experience at the App Store that I do
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think there is still an element of and
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maybe it's less seasonality and more
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event-driven downloads i deceived myself
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like I I mean maybe the one that always
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comes to mind for me is whenever there's
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a hurricane threatening the United
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States the top like in all of a sudden
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the top charts are full of radar apps
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right like which is something that is
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not a predictable reliable season but
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there's these periods of increased
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interest in an application category that
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I definitely still have huge impacts on
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downloads and I mean I do a lot of
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health and fitness stuff and so the
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beginning of January just in the same
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way that a lot of people go and get gym
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memberships and then you never use them
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again but a lot of people will go and
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download health and fitness apps at the
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beginning of January when they're saying
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like hey I'm gonna start a new thing I'm
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gonna whatever like for my case I'm
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gonna start counting my steps or being
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more active or whatever that may be
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like there's this certainly this uptick
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in it or there's just those event base
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things but I think in both cases there
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is certainly still this element where
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it's possible to have these big spikes
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and in your downloads and so like for me
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I know I need to think about it as if I
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have anything that said that sort of
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rail health and fitness related it
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should be as tight and buttoned down as
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it can possibly be by the middle to the
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end of December because January 1st is a
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big time for me and I imagine similarly
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maybe if you're working on a weather or
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radar app it's like making sure that
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you're nice and put into put into place
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before hurricane and the hurricane
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season starts or before big winter
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storms might be coming sort of like
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whenever there's this external thing
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it's just probably good to be aware of
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because I know and for a lot of my
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planning when I'm just kind of doing
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things it's so easy to just kind of I'm
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just kind of working on it until it's
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ready and one of the benefits of being
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self-employed is that I can just work on
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it until it's ready and then ship it out
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and lose sight of the fact that like the
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there these opportunities that are
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coming and even the other thing that
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comes to mind even is if one day I'd
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ever hope to win any and an Apple Design
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Award for example like I there's a
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certain timing that I should probably be
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have in the back of my mind as I'm
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building my products if that's something
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that I wanted to work towards because I
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imagine they're looking for apps that
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are probably majorly updated or released
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it's probably between the latest iOS
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launch and the spring like that's when
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they're going to be most looking for
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those those things that are going to
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fill the slot that they want to promote
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and you know hold up as examples of
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things but even if it's not necessarily
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something that I'm trying to do there's
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some value to having taken a step back
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and saying is there a timing element to
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this that I should be aware of and not
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you know necessarily kill myself to make
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happen like oh no I absolutely have to
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get the shipped in the next two weeks or
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it's all gonna fall apart like if that's
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your business plan that's probably
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flawed but at the very least it's
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looking at it and being like is there
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something that I should be aware of that
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I'm gonna kick myself for not being
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aware of if I don't get taken into
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aspect of seasonality that seemed like
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it might be worth unpacking a little bit
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is the way that I think i'ma even my own
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work I imagine your own your your work
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to marco like can be very seasonal
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especially when you're not employed in a
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typical profession where obviously like
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my work was not really seasonal when
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I've had a nine-to-five job I went here
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and I worked ostensibly anyway from 9:00
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to 5:00 in the day I'm pretty sure mine
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was seasonal you know just my bosses
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didn't necessarily know that or or they
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were doing their best to pretend like
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they didn't notice that yeah but there
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is an element in when you're
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self-employed but like that did that
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illusion doesn't work quite as well
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where you really like I know for myself
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Mike my productivity and the my
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motivation the way in which I seem to be
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able to actually get things done can
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tend to have a certain seasonality to it
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where there are periods of time during
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the year where I'm just like really
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killing it and like writing interesting
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you know write writing great great
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updates new code all these things like
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everything's working well and there'll
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be periods of time when it just doesn't
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happen and the difficulty I think is
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both in being aware of that as a thing
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and then you know and so that you're not
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surprised by it or you know sort of
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beating yourself up when like man I'm
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just really not getting a lot of work
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done and being like okay you know this
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is fine this is something that happens
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but then also probably good to have the
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element of planning around that and
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thinking about like if you have control
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over your schedule what would an ideal
◼
►
schedule be adapting it to yourself
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because I feel like it's so easy to fall
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into the pattern of and something I
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still struggle with of the feeling that
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like 40 hours of work is the thing that
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I'm trying to always get out of me every
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week irrespective of whether that makes
◼
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sense both in terms of how I feel you
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know physically health-wise etc what's
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going on in my life personally what's
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going on in the world like there's lots
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►
of things that I think can either
◼
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encourage or motivate good good and
◼
►
effective work or demotivate and kind of
◼
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take that out of you and kind of
◼
►
planning around that it's something
◼
►
that's probably a wise and useful thing
◼
►
to do because it's it's a strange thing
◼
►
to think of it in some ways when you
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►
kind of know if I boil down the big like
◼
►
the most important important work I've
◼
►
probably done in my business has likely
◼
►
been done mmm it's probably in maybe
◼
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about six weeks or so over the last
◼
►
eight years like in the sense that like
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the the first versions of most of my
◼
►
most successful apps so like the first
◼
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app that I ever had that was successful
◼
►
was an app called audiobooks which isn't
◼
►
like an audiobook player and I wrote it
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►
in a week between I had it I was doing
◼
►
consulting at the time and I had a
◼
►
period just you know like in consulting
◼
►
is inevitably the case where I had like
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►
a contract and I had about a week before
◼
►
my next contract started and I was like
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you know I'm just gonna work on this app
◼
►
idea that I have for that week it was
◼
►
like in that one week I'd built the
◼
►
basic version of the app and I put it in
◼
►
the app store and that happened out to
◼
►
be yeah it's probably the how most
◼
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downloaded app I've ever had and if not
◼
►
if it isn't it's definitely the second
◼
►
most and was the app that I've turned
◼
►
app development from a like a sideline
◼
►
or a small part of my business into my
◼
►
primary business I was like that was in
◼
►
one week's work and similarly with
◼
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pedometer like it was I wrote that
◼
►
happened about a little over a week or
◼
►
about yeah I was about a week because it
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was announced at the keynote when they
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announced the 5s and then I had a week
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►
until the 5ns launched and that was all
◼
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I had to build the app and there's a few
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►
other kind of periods like that where
◼
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you can have these really focused
◼
►
intensive periods that at least for me
◼
►
have been really impactful and important
◼
►
and that's a strange thought when I try
◼
►
and unpack it and be like wow my career
◼
►
like what have I been doing for the
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►
other like whatever eight years - six
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I don't want to think about it too much
◼
►
but I think there is something that's
◼
►
good about thinking about and being
◼
►
aware of that your work is not
◼
►
necessarily this like we're the nature
◼
►
of being a software developer is not
◼
►
like we're building a wall or something
◼
►
where every all we need to do is like we
◼
►
go over here we pick up a brick we walk
◼
►
over to the wall we put a little plaster
◼
►
down with the next brick and we walk
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►
back and forth and we can keep doing
◼
►
that really no matter what like we can
◼
►
just keep adding bricks in the rate at
◼
►
which we add bricks is how much progress
◼
►
we made when was the last time you saw a
◼
►
construction project I don't know it'd
◼
►
be wonderful if they just kept going
◼
►
until they were complete with no random
◼
►
interruptions and long breaks of
◼
►
seemingly nothing happen no it is that's
◼
►
not software development at all like
◼
►
that's not the way that our work goes
◼
►
where it's this very creative like
◼
►
esoteric like sometimes you just kind of
◼
►
get the idea and you get to get in a
◼
►
flow and you can really do some cool
◼
►
work and then at other times you just
◼
►
really can't yeah I mean my issue with
◼
►
this some of it is seasonal for sure
◼
►
you know there's certain like times
◼
►
where where I have a lot more family
◼
►
obligations or family events to do
◼
►
things like you know around summer
◼
►
vacation or around winter holidays any
◼
►
kind of travel obviously is a huge deal
◼
►
in in terms of lordosis my productivity
◼
►
which is generally bring it to zero so
◼
►
that's that's that's a big deal but my
◼
►
problem more is it's not necessarily all
◼
►
the family stuff it's all the just
◼
►
unexpected stuff or everyday
◼
►
distractions or everyday errands or
◼
►
things like that where I find that I my
◼
►
schedule is basically perforated with
◼
►
like lots of scattered holes and it and
◼
►
sometimes I can really buckle down and
◼
►
just get it done anyway get everything
◼
►
done that I need to do anyway but just
◼
►
like the the the realities of everyday
◼
►
family life especially when you work at
◼
►
home and when you want to be you know
◼
►
heavily involved in your child care then
◼
►
it's it's there's a lot of holes in the
◼
►
schedule basically it's very hard to get
◼
►
long blocks and to really make that make
◼
►
that work and and a lot of it it's also
◼
►
just self-imposed I mean a lot of it I
◼
►
just thought I'm not a very focused
◼
►
person I'm very easily to stray
◼
►
did I don't have an incredibly strong
◼
►
work ethic so the idea of like just
◼
►
sitting down with a strong routine
◼
►
during the time I do have even that
◼
►
doesn't always work out for me
◼
►
and then you have the you have other
◼
►
problems you have things like I mean you
◼
►
know not to make this political with the
◼
►
current political events but like you
◼
►
have things like national events that
◼
►
happen you know that that can really
◼
►
change either your ability to work or
◼
►
your or your motivation or your mood or
◼
►
can it can be like you know for instance
◼
►
if you were marketing an app and if you
◼
►
wanted to launch an app right after this
◼
►
US presidential election that just
◼
►
the day after it happened if your app
◼
►
appeals ten if you're a potential to
◼
►
liberal people would be a terrible day
◼
►
to launch that because you know like
◼
►
that would be it's kind of a day of
◼
►
mourning for like the side that loses a
◼
►
presidential election and or if if
◼
►
there's like a big national tragedy of
◼
►
some kind like if there's like a
◼
►
shooting or something like that like you
◼
►
know you try to avoid or you know some
◼
►
kind of natural disaster or like trying
◼
►
to launch an app or or do anything like
◼
►
that day is probably a bad idea you know
◼
►
and and so there's all sorts of other
◼
►
factors that will that will come into
◼
►
your life in your schedule and will
◼
►
disrupt your plans and you you have to
◼
►
have enough padding and you and you have
◼
►
to have you know enough slack in the
◼
►
plans that you can accommodate for these
◼
►
things when they come and you know you
◼
►
won't always I mean sometimes these
◼
►
things just come at the worst possible
◼
►
times or they're completely unexpected
◼
►
or whatever else but you know you have
◼
►
to have slack in your plans for for
◼
►
unfitted events like that and and you
◼
►
know because regardless of what if
◼
►
regardless of whether you want them to
◼
►
happen they will happen and and you
◼
►
should be ready for that but you know
◼
►
ultimately the when it comes down to
◼
►
like everyday motivation I mean just a
◼
►
really inconsistent I will have some
◼
►
days or weeks that I'm just on fire and
◼
►
I just get tons done and it's just like
◼
►
I I will do like an entire major version
◼
►
of overcast like my 3.0 I can do a good
◼
►
chunk of the work for 3.0 in like two
◼
►
weeks but it'll take me six months to
◼
►
ship it because I have so much other
◼
►
stuff that I'm juggling and balancing
◼
►
it's doing in like fits and spurts and
◼
►
attempting and then out that doesn't
◼
►
that didn't work so I've got a rollback
◼
►
try different approach whatever else or
◼
►
I'll just have like a month where I have
◼
►
so much family stuff and slacking going
◼
►
on that I just don't get anything done
◼
►
it's it's all I'm well I'm all over the
◼
►
map on that and it's part of the reason
◼
►
I typically look back on the time that I
◼
►
have spent like I look back on like a
◼
►
year I'm like what did I do this entire
◼
►
year and I'm usually not happy with the
◼
►
amount that I got done in software
◼
►
development I'm very I'm very proud of
◼
►
things like podcasts and I'm kind of
◼
►
forced to do those on a schedule look I
◼
►
had because I do them with other
◼
►
people's oh and there's sponsors and
◼
►
everything's like that there's an
◼
►
enforced schedule on that but the stuff
◼
►
that's more flexible I'm usually less
◼
►
proud of because I just I don't have a
◼
►
strong work ethic that makes me sit down
◼
►
and have these large blocks of
◼
►
uninterrupted work time consistently
◼
►
like I'll have those sometimes but I
◼
►
don't have them consistently but I think
◼
►
that's mostly my personality and I think
◼
►
there is something to be said though to
◼
►
fur and they'd only be touched from the
◼
►
end we touched on this last week we were
◼
►
talking about learning but there is
◼
►
something that I noticed for myself two
◼
►
of my it's easy to get stuck where you
◼
►
can do the interesting part of a problem
◼
►
or the like the part that's interest
◼
►
that's exciting to you yep and then you
◼
►
hit a point where you are having to do
◼
►
something that you don't really want to
◼
►
do and you suddenly your motivation and
◼
►
somehow magically disappears and you
◼
►
just like oh I'm suddenly very like this
◼
►
little distractible puppy that's just
◼
►
like oh there's a butterfly let me run
◼
►
around after it this is every time I've
◼
►
ever touched watchkit very I possibly do
◼
►
besides watch it yeah but I think it's
◼
►
important to understand that about
◼
►
we're like I have done that enough times
◼
►
that air than the first the first couple
◼
►
of times that that would happen like I
◼
►
don't think I had any self awareness
◼
►
that like what I'm doing is avoiding
◼
►
work because I don't actually want to
◼
►
work and the times that I'm very
◼
►
productive it's usually because I'm
◼
►
really excited or interested and you
◼
►
kind of get into these modes where all I
◼
►
think about is the problem I'm trying to
◼
►
solve and it's the like it can almost be
◼
►
I'm trying to do something else and it's
◼
►
like heaps the thought keeps popping
◼
►
into my head like oh what if I did this
◼
►
over here what if I did that over there
◼
►
and then like I'm in the shower and I'm
◼
►
like what you know like writing notes on
◼
►
the on the glass in the shower door
◼
►
being like these are things that I'm
◼
►
thinking about like it's if you're
◼
►
excited and motivated about what you're
◼
►
working on you're gonna be so much more
◼
►
productive and effective at it and
◼
►
that's something that I think for myself
◼
►
I've started to be very just trying to I
◼
►
try to be more conscious about this and
◼
►
that's only it's somewhat helpful
◼
►
because they're still necessarily going
◼
►
to be times that you have to do things
◼
►
that you don't want to do but at the
◼
►
very least if I can tell myself like
◼
►
have the sort of them the metacognition
◼
►
to say like the reason I'm taking longer
◼
►
to do this is because I'm not motivated
◼
►
to do it and at the very least then it
◼
►
gives me an opportunity to look at it
◼
►
and say is this really something I want
◼
►
to do is this something that I should be
◼
►
doing and I can make a decision and a
◼
►
choice and I can actually make the
◼
►
choice about it rather than just kind of
◼
►
pretending that it's not there and
◼
►
pretending that they're actual reason
◼
►
I'm not working or with actual reason
◼
►
I'm not making progress is because of
◼
►
something else something out of my
◼
►
control or something in my family or
◼
►
whatever it is that like there's a
◼
►
simply sometimes those things are just
◼
►
gonna impose themself upon you and
◼
►
sometimes I feel like for myself I can
◼
►
go seeking out those distractions or
◼
►
those things to pull me away because I
◼
►
don't actually care and I think having
◼
►
some degree of intentionality is helpful
◼
►
like I know for myself it doesn't it's
◼
►
not like it's this cure-all because even
◼
►
if the answer is like I don't want to do
◼
►
this because I don't want to do this but
◼
►
I still have to do this then well I'm
◼
►
kind of stuck and I just have to kind of
◼
►
transition into more like like crisis
◼
►
management of like how can I trick
◼
►
myself into thinking this is exciting
◼
►
and get it done but at the very least I
◼
►
can be aware of it and try and make some
◼
►
conscious choices about it that when I
◼
►
get into these kind of these funks in
◼
►
these seasons where I'm just not getting
◼
►
maybe it's helpful to just think about
◼
►
it at least from that perspective and I
◼
►
think you know kind of wrapping it up
◼
►
back to the beat the beginning part of
◼
►
the show I think one of the things that
◼
►
helps a lot is a pretty strong
◼
►
externally imposed deadline you know
◼
►
like that that's one of the very
◼
►
from motivators I have is like if if I
◼
►
if I'm trying to get a nap or an update
◼
►
out but and it has to make it or I
◼
►
really should for business reasons make
◼
►
it you know in time for the next iOS
◼
►
update or the next iPhone or the next
◼
►
holiday season or whatever the case may
◼
►
be as we mentioned earlier that is often
◼
►
one of the only ways I can really be
◼
►
motivated to do something like you know
◼
►
this is something that I'm just not that
◼
►
I'm not motivated to do like some
◼
►
feature I don't want to do or some like
◼
►
nitty gritty detail that I just don't
◼
►
find interesting to work on or that I
◼
►
know is going to be tedious to work on
◼
►
you know that's having an externally
◼
►
imposed deadline or some other external
◼
►
pressure to do it is often necessary
◼
►
it's certainly helpful and as Indies we
◼
►
often don't have that especially like if
◼
►
things are going generally okay like if
◼
►
we're making enough money to survive and
◼
►
to stay in business it's hard to be able
◼
►
to be motivated by many other external
◼
►
factors for things like feature updates
◼
►
cuz like what do you really motive like
◼
►
right now there's nobody pressuring me
◼
►
to get over cast 3.0 out the door nobody
◼
►
like sure I have no reason to do it
◼
►
except that I assume at some point I
◼
►
will have competition so strong that I
◼
►
need to you know answer to it with my
◼
►
own updates or whatever else but besides
◼
►
that the main motivation for getting
◼
►
over cast 3 at the door is myself it's I
◼
►
am doing I think better things in it and
◼
►
I want I want everyone to see these
◼
►
things and to use these things and - I
◼
►
want the app to be better and that's a
◼
►
great motivation and if you don't have
◼
►
that motivation I think you're in
◼
►
trouble for lots of other reasons but
◼
►
that is not a rush like that that
◼
►
doesn't impose any kind of timeline on
◼
►
you and it's very easy to fall into the
◼
►
trap of like well I I can just make it a
◼
►
little bit better just a little bit
◼
►
better and oh if I don't release it in
◼
►
December well how about February how
◼
►
about April and just you keep going back
◼
►
and back and back and before you know it
◼
►
it's been like three years
◼
►
before you released anything and and
◼
►
that's that's not good for for your app
◼
►
or your customers or your budgeting or
◼
►
anything like that and so if times you
◼
►
really needs some kind of external
◼
►
pressure to get these things out the
◼
►
door yeah and even one little trigger
◼
►
I've definitely did use myself is
◼
►
the making it like it's bad to make like
◼
►
external public commitments about things
◼
►
and features and timelines oh yes don't
◼
►
do that don't do that but I do find that
◼
►
if I can if I can find non non
◼
►
commitment ways of sharing what I'm
◼
►
working on and kind of creating a sense
◼
►
of interest or anticipation from other
◼
►
people whether that's friends and family
◼
►
whether that's customers or people who
◼
►
follow you on the internet like whatever
◼
►
that looks like for you but I know for
◼
►
myself like even on the show like
◼
►
talking about my next app is written in
◼
►
and put like making that commitment out
◼
►
just out in public it's like now when I
◼
►
hit the problems with this app that has
◼
►
been taking me much longer than I wish
◼
►
it would have and some of those are
◼
►
because I'm still learning Swift it's
◼
►
like I can't just say like okay I'm not
◼
►
just gonna do this or I'm gonna back out
◼
►
it's been instructive to have this
◼
►
external thing that it's like no no no I
◼
►
was like I'm I don't want to do the
◼
►
episode of like why I abandoned that
◼
►
commitment and so I'm being able to work
◼
►
towards it and similarly I've worked on
◼
►
other apps in the past where it's like I
◼
►
start talking about them at a high level
◼
►
or trying to which is good maybe good
◼
►
marketing to and kind of building a
◼
►
little bit of anticipation but even from
◼
►
a timing perspective to say that like
◼
►
here's something that I'm hoping to get
◼
►
out by and such and such and then what
◼
►
you as soon as it's outside of yourself
◼
►
and there's even this vague sense of
◼
►
someone else who might be expecting that
◼
►
I can find it can be a little bit
◼
►
motivating and a little bit of making a
◼
►
timeline for you to you know kind of
◼
►
move forward with things yeah that
◼
►
alright I think we're out of time this
◼
►
week thanks a lot to our sponsor Pingdom
◼
►
and thanks listeners for listening and
◼
►
we will talk to you next week bye