36: Stockpiling the Nuclear Weapons of Design War

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0:00:07The talk show

0:00:10Oh malek what a week yes there is and it's not even over yet

0:00:17I'm just surprised. Uh, it's only friday. I'm just waiting for something else to happen tomorrow

0:00:28I'm not even sure what the biggest news of the week is. I think it's probably the the facebook home

0:00:34facebook phone

0:00:36htc first

0:00:38But I don't know. There's also the the the webkit. Um

0:00:42I don't know. What do you want to call it a divorce between apple and google where google sort of

0:00:47Taking their half a webkit and going their own way

0:00:50I think those two stories are pretty much the same story

0:00:54of google versus apple

0:00:57the narrative you and I have been talking about for a very long time.

0:01:03I wouldn't think of the two events very separately.

0:01:08I think the Facebook home story is essentially another assault by the Android ecosystem on

0:01:20Apple.

0:01:21Apple right I mean I don't know if you read all those interviews you know

0:01:29Zuckerberg gave to all the print publications by fortune no I didn't

0:01:36actually and so he's basically talking about like how easy it is to innovate on

0:01:41Android and how open it is and then they have a great relationship with Apple but

0:01:47there are constraints, which is kind of very passive aggressive, classic Harvard way of

0:01:52saying, you know, we got some issues we need to resolve.

0:01:56Well, and I do think it's, it's almost surprising, the level to which Facebook home as just

0:02:09software is able to sort of redefine the Android experience. I mean, and I know, I make fun of it

0:02:15over and over again. The whole Android is open mantra. But here's an example where it really

0:02:22it really is like it's at it's designed at a level where an app that you just download from the Play

0:02:27Store can once you you know you granted a bunch of permissions which I think is a lot more broad

0:02:34than the typical app you download from the Play Store. But once you say okay this I'm going to

0:02:39allow this to do these things your your phone interface is really completely redefined.

0:02:44And, you know, it's very, very much the case that you cannot do anything like that on iOS.

0:02:50I mean, a part of me says, "Thank God," you know, because what I don't want is Facebook

0:02:57controlling my user experience on my phone.

0:03:01I mean, I'm sorry.

0:03:03I would rather trust Cobra, you know, in my pocket than, you know, Facebook.

0:03:10I'm sorry.

0:03:11And, you know, I'm no big fan of Android, but I will say this, though.

0:03:15I do think it's to Android's credit, and I think it's a lesson learned from the PC decade

0:03:22of the '90s and maybe even the 2000s, that even, let's say, and I don't know this for

0:03:30sure because it's not out yet.

0:03:32It doesn't hit the Play Store until the 12th, and the Android phone I have here is, I think

0:03:37it's a Galaxy Nexus, and I don't think that's on their list of supported phones.

0:03:41so I probably won't be able to try it.

0:03:42But, you know, it is still a download from the Play Store.

0:03:46So if you download it and you don't like

0:03:48what it's done to your phone, you can uninstall it.

0:03:51You can delete the app and go back.

0:03:53As opposed to the dark days of, you know,

0:03:56PCs and especially Windows in the 90s,

0:03:59where you might install, I don't know,

0:04:01browser toolbars and stuff like that,

0:04:04and you have no idea how to uninstall them.

0:04:07- That's true.

0:04:08I mean, I would give you that.

0:04:10I think the other issue which we don't talk about often with the Android is that it allows

0:04:17you to customize everything to the system level and Facebook is taking advantage of

0:04:28that and creating an experience which is very similar to how they see the world.

0:04:37And I wonder if this is something which becomes a trend where successful companies like Facebook,

0:04:46like Twitter, like Spotify start to layer their own usability interface on top of Android.

0:04:57And what Google does about it would be interesting to see because when I looked at the Facebook

0:05:04home I was at the event yesterday I looked at it and I said you know it's

0:05:08only a matter of time before Facebook launches its own OS it's only a matter

0:05:15of time before Google brings Android back into the you know into the cage I

0:05:21think it's getting too crazy for them you know if Samsung is running away with

0:05:26one version of Android and Amazon did their own thing and you know now I think

0:05:31I think Facebook is going to try and do their own thing.

0:05:34I just think they said at the event

0:05:37that they will be upgrading this every month

0:05:40with growing regularity.

0:05:43And I was like, wait, this is essentially

0:05:46just a Trojan horse for a full OS.

0:05:49I'll give it 18 months.

0:05:52- Well, and I will say this.

0:05:54I mean, I invited you to be on this show yesterday,

0:05:57but it was mainly because I saw that after the event

0:06:00They had a Q&A, and their credit for having a Q&A with the press.

0:06:05Apple often usually doesn't.

0:06:08But I saw that you were pressing them on this exact issue, this, "Come on, this is the first

0:06:14step towards your own operating system."

0:06:19And they didn't even really...

0:06:21They didn't really address it directly, but they didn't really...

0:06:24I thought their answers to it were kind of interesting, because it wasn't a denial, that's

0:06:28for sure.

0:06:29You know one thing I was quite enjoying it see how well-trained Mark has become in terms

0:06:38of media doesn't even acknowledge the question and answers with what he wants to answer but

0:06:44I tried and they you know the limit the limit of time is always an issue but I'm fairly

0:06:52convinced that this is just an opening salvo and they have to do it.

0:06:59If they are investing so much time and energy in trying to create this user experience on

0:07:05Android, it makes perfect sense for them to go deeper.

0:07:09I tell you, they may have been working on an OS level program in the background and

0:07:15the reason they are not launching it just yet is that it's not mature enough because

0:07:19But it takes a lot more to build an operating system.

0:07:23I mean, it took Google a few years.

0:07:26It took Apple many, many years to get it done right.

0:07:29And Apple is in the business of OS,

0:07:32and Google is in the business of building operating systems.

0:07:36I will say this.

0:07:37I have spoken to executives at Apple, I mean, really high up.

0:07:42And they see iOS-- and this is even just from your-- even

0:07:48today, they see it as a continuous effort dating back to 1988, 1989, and the original

0:07:56next step operating system.

0:07:58And in terms of things like graphics performance, the smoothness of animation and font rendering

0:08:04and stuff like that, and certain technical advantages that iOS has had over Android and

0:08:10other competitors all along, they see that not as something that they've been working

0:08:14on since 2005 or 2006 when they started working on the iPhone, but as something that they

0:08:18dates back to 1989. I mean it is hard stuff.

0:08:22Yeah, it is. And you know, I will give the Facebook guys full credit for being relentless

0:08:30too. I think there is a little bit Microsoft in that company and they are just, they just

0:08:35don't like giving up.

0:08:37Well, and I, and the thing that you have me convinced of in terms of this angle that this

0:08:43This is just an opening salvo in terms of a broader mobile initiative from Facebook.

0:08:50And I think it's very clever, and I think it shows – it's a clever way, like you

0:08:55said, that if a full operating system under their control – maybe something – maybe

0:08:59still something based on Android, but something more like what Amazon's done, a fork – if

0:09:05it's not ready yet, this is a very – this strategy of doing this first, doing a home

0:09:10home screen first that you can install on five very popular Android phones and ship

0:09:16a new phone from HTC that'll be in AT&T stores later this month, right, is a great way to

0:09:25ship something as soon as possible, you know, in that mantra of, you know, minimum viable

0:09:32product.

0:09:33Like what's the minimum viable mobile operating system that Facebook could ship?

0:09:39And home screen might be it.

0:09:41It's a way to ship early.

0:09:43- Right.

0:09:44I think the other thing, if you really look at it, John,

0:09:47they are, they are basically, they did something

0:09:51which is quite brilliant.

0:09:54They tore, they gave the middle finger to Google

0:09:57in a big way, and yet at the same time, they kept saying,

0:10:00you know, we love Google.

0:10:02They have never said in the past that, hey Google,

0:10:05you're great, they're open, we have a, you know,

0:10:08we really applaud what you're doing.

0:10:10The narrative on Facebook is that Google sucks, right?

0:10:14And then suddenly they wake up and like,

0:10:16"Ooh, we are saying all these nice things about Google."

0:10:20And my view is, well, you're just trying to hide

0:10:23what's the reality, right?

0:10:24Maybe I'm a little bit too cynical or too old

0:10:28for this industry, but that's how I read it.

0:10:30The second thing which I would say is that

0:10:33there also, Google's big play was Google+ on the web.

0:10:37on the mobile, right?

0:10:39That's their social play.

0:10:41And here comes Facebook,

0:10:43add the social layer on top of Android and says,

0:10:46"Great guys, to help with you and your Google Plus,

0:10:49"here is how we do social on your platform."

0:10:54Right?

0:10:55And I think that is what is going to make Google

0:10:58kind of have a little bit of a second thought

0:11:01as to like what should they do about Facebook and Android

0:11:05and how open they should keep it.

0:11:07I do think, and I've seen it on Twitter and I've seen it elsewhere, I saw Horace Deju

0:11:12of ASIMCO speculating along the same lines of, "Does this..."

0:11:20I think Google was already being prodded in this direction of, "Hey, have we given competitors

0:11:24too much by making Android this open?

0:11:28Too much of a leg up."

0:11:29Where would Amazon be in tablets if it were not for the fact that Android is open source?

0:11:36Have we given away too much? You can't help but think given the, it's not even implicit,

0:11:43it's explicit. Everybody knows that Larry Page is seriously got Google+ as one of his

0:11:50primary objectives for the next few years at Google, right? And that Facebook might

0:11:55be their top competitor, even more than Apple, more than, you know, the most direct competitor

0:12:00maybe. And now they've given their most direct competitor this this opportunity.

0:12:06You have to wonder whether they're they're reconsidering what that's going to mean for

0:12:12the next major version of Android. It'd be fun to see what happens. I'm just like almost giddy

0:12:20with delight to just write the next story. Whatever happens will be pretty awesome.

0:12:26And on similar lines, I wrote a little bit earlier this week, but I played off a report

0:12:32by Nicholas Carlson in Business Insider on Andy Rubin's departure as Android lead.

0:12:40And that it's—nobody's on the record, unfortunately, but it really seems more and more that what

0:12:47happened to him is exactly what happened to Scott Forstall at Apple, which is that he

0:12:53he got pushed out. He didn't just decide to step down. His little do another moonshot

0:13:00for Google thing is really just a gardening leave where he's waiting for options to vest

0:13:06or something like that or non-competes to expire.

0:13:09Dr. Ahmad Sairam. I would not disagree with you. I've heard the same story from multiple

0:13:14sources that he got pushed out mostly because he was very difficult to work with.

0:13:19All right, I mean like again the one phrase I heard from somebody was quote-unquote Larry was sick of the fighting

0:13:24Yeah, and the thing that's so telling about that and is that the fighting was with

0:13:30Correct me if I'm pronouncing wrong Sundar

0:13:34Pichai Pichai

0:13:37The chrome lead who took over Android and that's really when you read between the lines the biggest tell that this was not Andy

0:13:45Ruben's idea because I

0:13:46And a couple of people said the same thing, that Pichai is the last guy Andy Rubin would

0:13:52have wanted to take over Android, because he's the guy he was fighting with all the

0:13:55time.

0:13:56Or one of the guys he was fighting with all the time.

0:13:58I think it was a very explicit message which went out to the rest of the company, is that

0:14:04you do what is necessary for Google.

0:14:07This is why I am convinced that the Android gets brought back to the farm.

0:14:16out there too much.

0:14:18I've said this for years.

0:14:19And just not-- it's not even like the details of it.

0:14:23It's just a general feel, like an emotional feel,

0:14:25that Android, to me, always felt like an independent company

0:14:32that Google happens to own.

0:14:35Not part of Google.

0:14:36Right?

0:14:38Everything from their graphic design to--

0:14:41I don't know, there's just so much about it

0:14:42that it just did not seem aligned with the company,

0:14:45really.

0:14:45other than the fact that it ships with a bunch of Google services, you know, as apps in part

0:14:50of the default app set.

0:14:54And I think that that's definitely the message that I get is that's going to change, and

0:14:58that the next major version of Android is going to be a lot more Googley.

0:15:04You know, the talking about the next version of Android being more Googley, I would say

0:15:13It's interesting that the Chrome OS and Android look so much similar when their purposes are

0:15:25entirely different.

0:15:27And I just wonder what is the unified experience look like when these two projects actually

0:15:33are run by the same guy.

0:15:35It'll be pretty fun to see.

0:15:37And I'm actually pretty excited about what Google is doing.

0:15:43Not entirely as somebody who's going to end up spending his time on Android, but just

0:15:49to see them make these moves is at least interesting.

0:15:53They're not being boring compared to--

0:15:55Oh, no, that's definitely the case.

0:15:58And I think some people overread into my taste in the fact that I generally prefer iOS over

0:16:07Android in most design senses.

0:16:11That doesn't mean that I don't look at Android with open eyes and appreciate a lot of the

0:16:15stuff that they're doing.

0:16:17And I agree with you.

0:16:19Especially now that it's under one person, I do wonder where that's going to go with

0:16:25Chrome as an OS and Android as an OS.

0:16:28Right.

0:16:29You know, this brings me to the bigger challenge, which is you and I have talked about this

0:16:34in the past.

0:16:35Like what does Apple do?

0:16:37Like this is a time when the idea of operating systems,

0:16:43user interfaces, everything is up for grabs.

0:16:49And it seems like our guys are just like

0:16:53kind of, seem to be a little stuck, a little static.

0:16:57I don't know what you think about that.

0:17:00I mean you're very close to the design thinking

0:17:04Apple and iPhone and iOS? Well, I don't know. I don't think that there's as

0:17:13much need for new stuff in iOS, major new stuff, as some people do, because I don't

0:17:21know. And again, I think I talked about this on my show a couple weeks ago, but I

0:17:24think it's in a sense that I'm getting older, that I'm no longer as

0:17:28infatuated with new for the sake of newness. Like, I saw some people yesterday

0:17:33I saw people and immediately after the Facebook home launch

0:17:36bemoaning the fact that

0:17:40That the that that little drag your face up left or right thing

0:17:45Seemed so much more cooler than than anything in iOS

0:17:50And it is cool, and it's definitely novel

0:17:54But I feel like I can't help but wonder if that's going to be confusing to a lot of people like I

0:17:58I appreciate the fact, not that I need it as a super nerd type guy, but for most people,

0:18:05I think that the fact that on iOS you can just look at it and figure it out, it tells

0:18:11you.

0:18:12It actually tells you in iOS when you have your phone locked, slide this to unlock it.

0:18:18Some people still have trouble with that because they don't slide it all the way and hold

0:18:22it.

0:18:23They'll slide it a little bit and let go and it goes back.

0:18:27So I think it's really hard to overstate the success Apple's had because iOS is so simple.

0:18:35And there's so many ways that what people see in other systems that they see as Apple

0:18:39may be falling behind in the whiz-bang regard would just lose so much of what makes iOS

0:18:49popular with regular people.

0:18:50Right.

0:18:51You know, it's just a little confusing time right now.

0:18:55I think there is a lot of talk about how things are different now with Android and Samsung

0:19:05and all sorts of new user experiences coming to market.

0:19:10And then you also have the issue of Apple still continues to do really well.

0:19:16I wonder if the next earnings report is going to be something to watch for.

0:19:24I don't know.

0:19:25Well, I don't know.

0:19:27I guess that is coming soon.

0:19:28I feel like they warned so heavily that this was going to be the first--

0:19:33I mean, if it's not, they're really going to blow past expectations.

0:19:37But they warned so heavily three months ago

0:19:40that this coming report was going to be the first one in, I don't know,

0:19:43how many quarters, 16 quarters or something like that, that shows a year

0:19:47over year earnings decrease.

0:19:49Although I think revenue should still increase significantly year over year.

0:19:53But the margins have shrunk enough for whatever reason

0:19:56recently that earnings are going to be down a little bit year

0:20:00over year.

0:20:00So we'll see how the market reacts.

0:20:02But I think that that's already baked

0:20:03into the depression of Apple's stock price.

0:20:06Right.

0:20:07What about the bigger narrative around Apple

0:20:11is that they are failing to keep up

0:20:15on the cloud side of things, which I think

0:20:18is a big challenge for them.

0:20:21we saw the iCloud related stories pop up this past week

0:20:26and then you have the problem with Chrome,

0:20:30WebKit, you know, DevOps so to speak.

0:20:33I don't know, I would love to know

0:20:34how you're thinking about this.

0:20:35Like you're the guy who understands

0:20:39the software side of Apple better than most people do.

0:20:42- I think that that's one of the,

0:20:46I do think for the most part that getting the iCloud stuff

0:20:49to work as well as the--

0:20:54I think it needs for Apple to really succeed

0:20:56over the next five years, like they have over the last five years.

0:20:59The iCloud stuff needs to start working as well for third party developers

0:21:05as--

0:21:06what do you want to call it-- Coco Touch or UI Kit,

0:21:09but whatever you want to call it.

0:21:11The framework that you use to make native iPhone and iPad apps,

0:21:16and how much-- when you talk to developers,

0:21:18much easier it is to write really good-looking, smoothly animated, beautiful apps for iPhone

0:21:26as opposed to other platforms. They need to get it so that writing stuff that stores data

0:21:32and syncs data to the cloud is just as good as it is to make good-looking apps. Does that

0:21:39make sense?

0:21:40Yeah.

0:21:41And they're not there yet. And part of it, I just saw that Google has announced some

0:21:45some new developer features for Google Drive.

0:21:50And some of them--

0:21:50a couple of the headlines have said

0:21:52that it's iCloud, heading in the direction of iCloud,

0:21:55where it's not just like Dropbox, where it's a folder

0:21:59that you sync to Google.

0:22:01They've added key value storage, which is an iCloud feature.

0:22:04And that's actually an iCloud feature

0:22:06that works pretty well if you talk to developers.

0:22:10And I forget what else.

0:22:11They don't have like a database level, database record level

0:22:17syncing.

0:22:18They don't even try it.

0:22:19And that's the part of iCloud that developers

0:22:22are bedeviled by.

0:22:23That's what the Ars Technica story was about.

0:22:25That's what Rich Segal's incredibly detailed,

0:22:29and I think very, very fair, technical assessment

0:22:33that I linked to on During Fireball last week.

0:22:36And it's also The Verge--

0:22:38who was it who wrote this Verge story?

0:22:40Was it Alice Hamburger?

0:22:41it was Alice Hamburger at The Verge, had a really great story. And what made it great

0:22:46was he really, I mean, he must have talked to at least a dozen or more developers to

0:22:51get different perspectives, but they all kind of told the same story about core data syncing

0:22:56to iCloud. Google doesn't even try that yet. I mean, so it's frustrating for developers

0:23:01in so far is that core data syncing to iCloud, it's not fair to say it doesn't work, but

0:23:08it is fair to say it does not work well enough,

0:23:12to the point where a lot of applications

0:23:14simply can't rely on it.

0:23:17But in another sense, Apple's ahead

0:23:19because they're at least trying something

0:23:21that Google isn't offering yet, that Amazon doesn't have.

0:23:26So we'll see.

0:23:27I mean, is this a case where maybe they shouldn't

0:23:31have shipped when they did?

0:23:33Maybe they should have left it in the labs for another year?

0:23:36or was it worth getting it out there to maybe help iron out the kinks in the field?

0:23:43You know, I would say that they need to kind of take a step back and figure out their entire

0:23:52internet strategy, not just iCloud, not just iTunes. They really need to figure out how

0:24:02internet interfaces with everything they do including their iOS, how deeply

0:24:08integrated it is. I think what I'm trying to say is that if you look at

0:24:13Google they are coming from this position of knowing web services really

0:24:18really well and they are building a design and hardware experience on top of

0:24:22that. Much easier to do compared to what Apple is trying to do is graph web

0:24:29experience into its way of thinking and I think unless they figure that out they

0:24:34will always be challenged with this iCloud type problems. I think as a

0:24:38company they don't think about the the internet the way as native internet

0:24:44companies do and I think they are not understanding the little fact that it's

0:24:48not enough to make great design, great UI, great hardware, great software. You have

0:24:56to have the ability to be a great connected experience and I think great as Apple might

0:25:02be on all those things, internet is and will always be its weak point and they're chinking

0:25:10the armor and so they really need to kind of, they have to have a step back thinking

0:25:17about this and I think they need, I personally think they need to go find a 35 year old chief

0:25:25internet officer. That's what they need. They don't need a big company. They don't need to buy a lot of things. They need to buy a

0:25:33guy or a gal who are native internet thinkers who are in their mid 30s who have grown up on

0:25:41broadband who think about devices from a connected experience. So if I was free I would volunteer, but I'm not.

0:25:48But they would look, you know, there's a guy who runs Snapguide. He's a friend of mine, Daniel Raffer.

0:25:54you know, he could be a good guy to run their, you know, their internet like

0:25:59ideology, they need the internet ideology and they need to

0:26:02Inculcate the whole company with connected thinking and I don't think they have it

0:26:09I just look at all their products great as they are

0:26:12I would not be able to use anything from any other company

0:26:15But they still need to think about the services as part of the core software

0:26:21up in experience and I and if they need to go away from this what's happening

0:26:25with iCloud it's it just is bringing in that DNA I mean I know it sounds kind of

0:26:31out there but at least that's how I think about it I I agree though I think

0:26:37that there's I've always said that I think for anybody whether it's a person

0:26:41or even an institution where you start informs where you're going how you're

0:26:48going to look at things forever. And, you know, Apple started pre-internet by decades.

0:26:56And I mean, just for example, I went, my freshman year of college was 1991. And I went to a

0:27:02very technical university. I mean, Drexel was, you know, super nerdy. I mean, it was

0:27:06one of the first, famously one of the first colleges that required all students to have

0:27:11computer. But when I got there in 1991, and everybody was supposed to buy a Mac, and that

0:27:18you could buy them at terrific discounts, student discounts. So you go there, and the

0:27:23second day you'd go and pick up your Mac from this student center where they had all

0:27:28the ones that you bought through the university. You take it up in your dorm, and the only

0:27:33thing you connected it to was the power supply in the wall. There was no Ethernet in the

0:27:38dorms yet. And modems were incredibly expensive. The cheapest modem was three or four hundred

0:27:45bucks. So we all hooked up our computers. And freshman year, we ended up making our

0:27:52own little network. It was this little—remember these things? I don't know if you remember

0:27:56these things. PhoneNet?

0:27:57Darrell Bock Yeah.

0:27:57Dave

0:27:57Yeah.

0:27:58…where it was like you'd plug it in the serial port of the Mac, and then you could

0:28:02just use either copper wiring or just phone cabling.

0:28:06And it was just copper wiring, and you'd get a little Apple local—what was it called?

0:28:12Local talk network.

0:28:15We did that so we could play games against each other.

0:28:16But it wasn't a campus-wide network.

0:28:18It was just the people in the dorm hallway who we ran copper wiring between.

0:28:24That was our network, which is crazy, you know, in hindsight.

0:28:27I mean, and anybody who's younger than me, even just by five years, even somebody who

0:28:32went to college five years after me, it's almost laughable that you would have a computer

0:28:38in your dorm room and not have it hooked up to any sort of network.

0:28:41Right.

0:28:42I mean, it's almost like I'm sure that anybody who is that young is laughing right now.

0:28:46They're probably laughing out loud.

0:28:48Or they think I'm exaggerating.

0:28:50And I think there's a lot of people, you know, that still is Apple's root, where you buy

0:28:55a beautiful Apple computing product.

0:28:58And it's a really thoughtful interface.

0:29:01It's beautiful.

0:29:03It feels good in your hand.

0:29:05And you go home, and you use it by yourself.

0:29:09Right.

0:29:10But that was then.

0:29:11And what is now is that all the people

0:29:16start with the experience of being connected and services

0:29:21just being there, right?

0:29:22and like how all those things connect

0:29:25with the actual hardware also defines

0:29:28how we feel about the hardware,

0:29:30not just the user experience level.

0:29:33The user experience also means

0:29:36the internet experience now, right?

0:29:38And I think that's a change in how the world

0:29:42thinks about these things.

0:29:43I just wish, you know, there was like more thought

0:29:49being put into this at the Apple on this front.

0:29:55At least I feel they don't think about it that much.

0:29:59Well, I think they do.

0:30:00But I don't know, though, that it's high enough a priority.

0:30:03And some of the stuff they've done really is great

0:30:05and has worked really well.

0:30:07I mean, I think that the iCloud backups for iOS devices

0:30:10has been an unheralded success.

0:30:14I think the fact that most people seem

0:30:17have it on, you know, it's opt-in. Everybody has to make a choice, right? When you turn

0:30:25on your new iPhone or iPad, you've got to go through this setup where you, you know,

0:30:30if you already have an iCloud account, you can enter it. And if you don't, they encourage

0:30:34you strongly, but don't force you to create one. And if you do, they ask if you want to

0:30:38back up to iCloud.

0:30:39Right.

0:30:40And from everything I've heard from people who do tech support for people and daring

0:30:47Fireball readers who work as geniuses in the stores and stuff like that, it's been a huge,

0:30:52huge success because now people come in with a dead iPhone and either buy a new one or

0:30:59get a replacement under warranty or whatever, and they type their iCloud password into the

0:31:05replacement one and while they're in the store on Apple's super fast Wi-Fi, boom, their stuff

0:31:10his back, as opposed to before, they'd be like, "Back it up, Hal." And they'd just look

0:31:16at the guy, and he'd be like, "Did you ever plug it in your computer?" And they're like,

0:31:19"I think I did when I—the day I bought it, and that was the last time they'd plugged

0:31:23it into their computer." And so everything they had after that, you know, was gone.

0:31:28So I think that's been a huge success for Apple. But it's monolithic, right? It's restoring—it's

0:31:36whole you know you can restore your whole phone to a new phone and that it

0:31:40does work well but I feel like the incremental updates you know this just

0:31:47the little stuff throughout the day of having you know your records in each app

0:31:51sync seamlessly between devices is you know it's it's a huge challenge for them

0:31:57we look I I'm a believer that they can get it right if of all the people out

0:32:04there they're the one company which will understand how human beings like to use

0:32:12you know the internet and a connectivity and all those things and bring it all

0:32:18together but they need to make it a top priority like I wrote a little tiny post

0:32:23last night in which Microsoft Robbie Bach and one of the other guys talking

0:32:29about Microsoft Kin in 2010.

0:32:34Three years later, Zuckerberg used pretty much the same language describing Facebook

0:32:40Home and in three years what Microsoft couldn't get it right, Facebook got it right because

0:32:46they are an internet native company.

0:32:49Microsoft had the right ideas, just was a bad UX, bad UI and bad execution.

0:32:56that company is like their middle name should be bad execution right like they

0:33:01come up with technologies first and they can't execute on it and I don't know why

0:33:05you know they were the first ones with tablet and just couldn't get it right

0:33:09they were the first ones with like a proper smartphone with like a

0:33:12programmable software with Windows CE and they still couldn't get it right so

0:33:18as a company they're bad they're bad execution guys but the key Microsoft kin

0:33:24made a lot of sense they were talking about people centric they were talking

0:33:28about content and context they were talking about all these things three

0:33:32years ago but they were not a native internet company so they didn't quite

0:33:37understand how to do it right Facebook yesterday when I saw it my issues with

0:33:43their privacy you know you know disregarding privacy aside that's an

0:33:49actually a product built for the connected age right but there are a lot

0:33:53of people use it or not remains to be seen, but it takes into the account that you're

0:33:58always on. You're always engaging with the smartphone. You're always connected. And

0:34:04I think that's the thinking of that web thinking is there. And that's what Apple

0:34:10needs.

0:34:11That's what I…

0:34:12That's… And let's hold the privacy discussion for a moment. But the one note

0:34:17I have written down to speak to you about is, to me, what it is is proof of something

0:34:22that I've suspected for a while which is that Facebook now realizes that they've

0:34:27had a change of heart at some point in the last few years where they realized

0:34:30that they're not a website they're a service. The website is just one

0:34:38way to access the service and that they need to think that way and you know

0:34:43and now mobile is a different way to access the service. Yeah I totally agree

0:34:48with you now think about it this way that they with the new Facebook home

0:34:55they're essentially saying what has been Facebook since 2005 the whole newsfeed

0:35:02idea it's okay to not have that idea let's break up everything into

0:35:07individual components I mean that's the big implication of yesterday's news is

0:35:13that they're okay, you know, disaggregating the entire Facebook experience into a whole

0:35:20different screen, right?

0:35:22Right.

0:35:23And that--

0:35:24It's not just that one web, canonical website interface.

0:35:27Yeah.

0:35:28And I think that is a very interesting way of looking at Facebook now.

0:35:33It's like, okay, if they're a service, I agree with you, 100%, they're a service.

0:35:38really and they're finally beginning to embrace that bit.

0:35:45Maybe they've already always embraced it, just not talking.

0:35:47No, I don't think so.

0:35:48I think their old mindset was what's the best way to get our website to people, including

0:35:53even their initial efforts on mobile, which I think was mostly just wrapping the website

0:35:57into an app.

0:35:58It was how do we get our website into an app.

0:36:01Whereas now I think they're thinking what's the best way – what's the best interface

0:36:05to get our information, our service to its users.

0:36:10And if it's native code, it's native code, then do it.

0:36:15Then let's hire designers and developers

0:36:20who are gonna kick ass at it.

0:36:21Because that's the other thing too.

0:36:23Did you get your hands on the phone yesterday?

0:36:25- Yeah, I did.

0:36:26- Was it as smooth as it looked in the videos and the demos?

0:36:28- Actually better.

0:36:30I was completely, they exceeded my expectations.

0:36:35Let's get back to that in a second. Let me take a break here for a sponsor and that's

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0:39:51I just downloaded it man, spent 18 bucks on it.

0:39:55It's a great app, it really is. It's just fantastic. It does exactly what it says on the tin.

0:40:03So anyway, smoothness, animation smoothness, that's one of the things that really blew me away.

0:40:09And it's one of the things, I don't even use Facebook, I've never signed up for it.

0:40:13But I'm fascinated by the company and keep my eye on them.

0:40:17on them. And the one thing all of us, anybody who covers the industry has noticed over the

0:40:21last two years is that they've hired an enormous amount of design talent. A lot of people who

0:40:28used to work at Apple, Mike Mattes, for example, iOS developers, the guys who did Kaleidoscope,

0:40:37what were they called, Sofa, and a couple of other great apps, like really high quality

0:40:44the type of apps that win and have won Apple Design Awards, those type of developers and

0:40:49designers. Facebook has been hiring as fast as they can get them. And I know firsthand from a

0:40:56bunch of my friends that they've reached out to more who've turned them down.

0:41:02Dr. Ahmad S

0:41:02Yeah, they're stockpiling the nuclear weapons of design war man. They're just bringing on anybody and everybody

0:41:10I actually had a list and then I just the list was got so big that I just forgot and like I said

0:41:18Let's give up keeping track of these people and I think

0:41:21My my take is that these guys are gonna stop and nothing to get get it right for all different kind of

0:41:32of device experiences and all kinds of web experiences.

0:41:36I do agree with you that they are splintering away

0:41:40from the idea of a unified feed and becoming more of a--

0:41:45more of-- sorry.

0:41:52Thinking of the information as being

0:41:54abstract from the interface for it, right?

0:41:56And then here's this device.

0:41:58Here's a four-inch device.

0:41:59What's the best interface for this?

0:42:01Well, it's nothing at all like it is on your 21 inch monitor

0:42:04where you're running a web browser.

0:42:06- Right.

0:42:07So much design thinking in the company

0:42:11means that they are thinking about data and design

0:42:16and screen in a very contextual, very thoughtful manner.

0:42:21I think that's a new thing about what Facebook is doing.

0:42:25And I think this is going to be an interesting challenge

0:42:29for our friends at Apple,

0:42:32like how do they think about all these things, right?

0:42:34Like, I don't think data has been part of their thinking.

0:42:38I don't think, you know,

0:42:39internet has been part of their experience thinking so far.

0:42:44You know, they can still continue to just make hardware

0:42:47and make software and still do what they do,

0:42:50but design and the connectedness are,

0:42:53oh sorry, data and connectedness,

0:42:55or the state of connectedness are part of the thinking

0:42:59which they need to have, which is what I think these guys are able to do.

0:43:03Look, Google has done the same thing.

0:43:06I don't know if you've noticed Google's apps have just gotten infinitely better looking

0:43:11than they used to.

0:43:12And the reason is that they're also understanding that apps on the desktop don't necessarily

0:43:18have to work like the way they do on the mobile.

0:43:24But they're also going in the, you know, they're coming up with same design language as for

0:43:29various different screens, which is the Google Look, the Apple Look, the Facebook Look, and

0:43:35all these guys are thinking about that.

0:43:37And I think from my standpoint, I do feel that Facebook has a slight advantage right

0:43:43now.

0:43:44I gently disagree with you, though.

0:43:47I feel that what Facebook showed yesterday is more of a threat to Google than Apple,

0:43:52I feel like what Facebook has done has become to me, and I haven't seen the phone firsthand,

0:43:58but I really do take your word for it, and the videos were pretty impressive, but it

0:44:03looks to me like the first other company that's created an Apple quality, humane interface

0:44:10for touch in terms of the organic-ness of the way that animations work.

0:44:19And it's not just that things bounce, it's the way that they bounce and stretch.

0:44:22And like I said, like, making it feel organic is the best way I can think to put it.

0:44:29And while Google's iOS apps, I think, have gotten really good and consistent and have

0:44:35a very nice Google-wide brand, I don't see that on their Android apps.

0:44:40Their Android apps, to me, and it's, to me, it stems, I think it's purposeful, I think

0:44:45It stems from the whole name Android, that they've gone for this sort of robotic aesthetic.

0:44:53But it's sterile in a way that like when you bounce, when you scroll in lists and stuff

0:44:59like that and you get to the end, it doesn't bounce at all.

0:45:01It just ends.

0:45:02It feels very mechanical.

0:45:05There's no organicness to it.

0:45:06I feel like it lacks humanity.

0:45:09And that to me is a problem for Google because what Google wants, I think, most is not to

0:45:14to be more like Apple and sell their own $700 phones and tablets, but to be more like Facebook

0:45:23and have people share their personal information and do their social networking through Google

0:45:27Plus. And I feel like Facebook getting more humane in their design helps Facebook stay

0:45:36ahead of Google in that regard.

0:45:39Hmm, okay. I mean, you know, I do feel that there are all these three companies are all

0:45:46on the, you know, they're going on a collision course, so to speak.

0:45:51And well, and among the other news this week on the collision course, so we've got Amazon

0:45:57who already has tablets based on Android, like complete forks. Now they've hired Charlie

0:46:04Kindle, who has the most amazing name for someone to be hired by Amazon, even

0:46:09though he has the E and the L transposed versus their e-readers. But he

0:46:15used to work at Microsoft on mobile, and since leaving Microsoft has written, I

0:46:22think, extremely cogently—I mean, I've linked to him several times on Daring

0:46:26Fireball, his blog, and very astute—a very astute observer of the mobile

0:46:31industry as a whole for a quote unquote secret project.

0:46:35But I think, you know, is there anybody who isn't thinking that he's been hired by

0:46:39Amazon to lead their mobile phone?

0:46:41No, I don't think that anything, it's nothing, it's, I am convinced that it's,

0:46:48it's a phone and Charlie's gonna help build that.

0:46:52And I think that's a great hire because, like I said, just from reading his blog where

0:46:56it seems to me like for the, you know, I mean, obviously I think that's gonna, his openness

0:47:00is going to stop in that regard. But I think he's a really astute observer of what's, you know,

0:47:06what's made the mobile industry tick over the last few years.

0:47:09So I had a chance to meet with him and be on a panel with him like a couple of months ago.

0:47:16And man, that guy is one smart cookie. I can't believe, you know, Microsoft lets people like him

0:47:25walk out. It just is amazing to me. And it just boggles my mind like how can you have

0:47:32talent like that just walk out. But most important thing I think from an Amazon's perspective is

0:47:39that how much of the the experience they are going to control from a shopping standpoint now

0:47:47if they have a phone also. I mean that just is just going to be amazingly brilliant way

0:47:54of thinking about shopping and buying things.

0:47:57And it just is amazing how those guys are thinking about the world.

0:48:02And you have to kind of think about it.

0:48:06There's the old adage, follow the money.

0:48:08And so these guys are all competing with each other.

0:48:11And let's just take phones.

0:48:12It's not even talk tablets, but just phones.

0:48:15Almost everybody only has one phone at a time.

0:48:19Guys like me and you might have an office full of phones

0:48:22and more than one SIM card at a time because we're testing phones and stuff like that.

0:48:26I mean, we're clearly oddballs, right? And business guys who have an iPhone and a Blackberry

0:48:32or something like that, there's such a small number of people, it's not even worth thinking

0:48:37about, right? People get one phone at a time. And unless it breaks or something like that,

0:48:41they keep it for at least two years because they buy it under contract.

0:48:46So there are—there's absolutely—they're all competing against each other because they

0:48:50They want you, when you go buy your next phone,

0:48:53to buy their phone, right?

0:48:55So there's definitely competition.

0:48:56But their interests are all very, very different.

0:48:59Apple really just wants you to buy the iPhone

0:49:02'cause they make a lot of money

0:49:03once you've bought the iPhone.

0:49:04And they wanna keep you happy

0:49:05so that you'll use their services and stuff like that.

0:49:08But they've already got the money

0:49:09and their main interest in making you happy

0:49:11is so that the next phone you buy is also an iPhone.

0:49:14Google and Facebook are primarily in the ad business, right?

0:49:19They want you to use their stuff because they want to be able to make money on the ads they're

0:49:23going to show you.

0:49:24And Amazon, different than all the others, just wants you to buy stuff from Amazon.

0:49:30And if you are going to buy more stuff because your phone is an Amazon phone, that's great.

0:49:36I think they should just give these devices away for free.

0:49:41I mean, my view is both the tablets and the phones, if they make them, they should give

0:49:47them away for free if they want people to shop from them constantly.

0:49:51I mean, it's like the logic on buying an iPhone is, or maybe even a Samsung Android, is that

0:50:01you can basically go to any place and buy anything or do anything without regard of

0:50:09one specific service.

0:50:11And that is, you know, a Swiss model.

0:50:15I mean, I kinda like that, but if these companies,

0:50:18let's say,

0:50:19Facebook or even Amazon want us to buy their phone,

0:50:25they shouldn't try and make us spend a lot of money on them.

0:50:30I would want them for free.

0:50:31So that, yeah, I'll happily shop on it, no problems.

0:50:35I mean, I shop on it like,

0:50:36I mean, I buy pretty much everything on Amazon right now.

0:50:39- I buy everything I can buy on Amazon from Amazon,

0:50:42just about.

0:50:43If I can't, you know, and if I think that they have it, I check there first.

0:50:51It's definitely true for me.

0:50:52I've had the same thought on the Facebook phone pricing.

0:50:55With Apple, they don't want...

0:50:58It's in their interest to have a phone that is free with a contract, you know, the two-year-old

0:51:03iPhone 4 now.

0:51:07But not as their big new, this is the thing when they come up on stage and unveil something

0:51:13new. They don't want to come out with something new and say that it's free. It doesn't work

0:51:17for them because it doesn't help their brand image as a premium brand. It's this sort of

0:51:25premium luxury or affordable luxury, I should say, where it's not like buying a Rolex watch

0:51:33where it's way too expensive for most people. It's, "Hey, here's the best phone on the market

0:51:38and you can afford it because it starts at $1.99, right?

0:51:41It's this affordable luxury.

0:51:44Free doesn't fit in with that.

0:51:45Whereas with the Facebook thing, with like the HTC first,

0:51:50I don't know, if they're going to show ads in the thing,

0:51:53to me, like, why not make it free?

0:51:56With the contract, with the, in terms of,

0:51:59well then how do you get AT&T on board?

0:52:01You get AT&T on board because it's still the two-year

0:52:04contract, not a free phone that you don't have

0:52:07the obligation for but quote unquote free right agreed like I am with you and

0:52:13that 100% they need to figure that one out and they would actually do well if

0:52:17they were making an actual phone which was for free and people could you know

0:52:22get it for free and and they could show ads on it great I mean I'm I'm pretty

0:52:28sure there's like you know many many people who would want something like

0:52:32Yeah, and you know, and Amazon's the one who I think is most likely to just go there, just

0:52:39do it maybe even out of the gate and just say, "Look, the damn thing's gonna be free."

0:52:43Because they, you know, their pricing, their, their, their, it's, competing with them on

0:52:48price is almost crazy because they'll do crazy things and, and they have the support from

0:52:52their shareholders to do that, to, to run the, you know, the business at break even

0:52:56or even slightly under.

0:53:00So can we talk a little bit about this WebKit fork because I'm trying to understand this

0:53:09and you've been blogging pretty extensively about it.

0:53:12Well, you know what?

0:53:14Let's do that, but let me do the second sponsor break first and then we can finish the show

0:53:17by talking about the WebKit.

0:53:18Okay.

0:53:19All right.

0:53:20Our second sponsor, as mentioned at the outset, is audible.com.

0:53:26Audible.com is the leading provider of downloadable audiobooks with over 100,000 titles in virtually

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0:53:49this show, the talk show, a free audiobook along with a 30-day trial. Here's what you

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0:54:19They always like a recommendation from the hosts.

0:54:23I have a great recommendation for an audiobook.

0:54:26Perfect for this week and it's perfect for you, Om.

0:54:30Right now, and you know what,

0:54:31and I don't think people appreciate this, Om,

0:54:33that you and I are voluntary,

0:54:34we're missing a Yankees game right now to do this show.

0:54:39The Yankees are playing the Detroit Tigers.

0:54:41I haven't looked at the score.

0:54:42Have you looked at the score?

0:54:43- I'm just scared to look at the score.

0:54:45- You know what, I felt good last night.

0:54:47I felt good last night watching 40-year-old Andy Pettit throw eight innings and 43-year-old

0:54:53Mariano Rivera get the save.

0:54:56You know, just to feeling a little old, I would say as guys who've been doing what

0:55:02we've been doing for a very long time, it is good to see some old guys.

0:55:08It warmed my heart.

0:55:09It warmed my heart to see guys my age save the Yankees season.

0:55:14They were 0-2 going into it.

0:55:16Perfect for the start of baseball season is this book. It's called "Scorecasting,

0:55:20the hidden influences behind how sports are played and games are won." And it's by

0:55:26two economists, L. Ron Wertheim and Tobias Moskowitz. And it's just a fascinating

0:55:34book. And it's for sports fans combined with math fans,

0:55:40statistical fans. And it's just chock full of the the intersection of psychology and statistics.

0:55:48And they make like a great case that statistically, this is just one example, statistically in US pro

0:55:55football, teams should almost never punt. They should almost never punt on fourth down. They

0:56:01should go for it almost all the time except in extreme circumstances. And instead, across all

0:56:06levels of football, high school, college, and especially pro coaches are super, super

0:56:10conservative and on almost every fourth down they do punt. Why? It's, it's even

0:56:15though the stats show you'd be better off, you'd win more games by not punting,

0:56:19it's the psychology of it and that you feel like when you don't make it you're

0:56:23losing more than you gain when you do make it, right? It's, that's the

0:56:29psychology of it. The book is just chock full of examples like that for all

0:56:34sports it's not just about football it's not just about baseball but basketball

0:56:38they go into great have a great chapter on the home field advantage and where it

0:56:43where it comes from and how the home field advantage holds up across all

0:56:48sports soccer football baseball all team sports all around the world how all

0:56:53every one of them has a very very consistent home field advantage it's a

0:56:57great book for sports fans who love stats it's called score casting and they

0:57:02They have it there on audible.com.

0:57:08So the WebKit thing.

0:57:10I don't know what to make of this.

0:57:12I really don't.

0:57:13Can we talk Yankees before we talk WebKit?

0:57:15Yeah, we can talk Yankees, definitely.

0:57:18This has been a hard year, man.

0:57:20It's been like going into it and I'm looking at this and like, who are these people?

0:57:24I don't even know them.

0:57:26It's like this like two hundred and twenty nine million dollars for like this team. Oh my god

0:57:31It is just I think you know, I wrote a little post on my personal blog

0:57:37om.co

0:57:39basically bemoaning that

0:57:41This is gonna be a tough year to be a Yankee fan and it will test our faith like nothing has ever before

0:57:48Well, man, it's like day four and I'm like, oh my god

0:57:52I guess like oh my god is like my favorite expression as far as the Yankees course are concerned

0:57:57The score is actually six three. I just looked at and

0:58:01Three in the seventh and Nunez just left to injury. I don't know what is going on

0:58:07You know what right before we got started the show right before we started I?

0:58:10Had watched while I ate lunch and him it happened after I that but I saw an update that he'd gotten hit by a pinch

0:58:17And was apparently really really writhing around and pay and I hope that's not it but

0:58:21- Wow man, this is gonna be some year.

0:58:25- This is the first time I can remember

0:58:28since sometime maybe in the early 90s

0:58:30where the opening day lineup was filled with,

0:58:35who the hell is that?

0:58:36I've never heard of this guy.

0:58:37Travis Hafner and I mean I've heard of Vernon Wells,

0:58:41but I mean you really had to be paying attention

0:58:42to even realize the Yankees had signed him.

0:58:45They only had three guys on their opening day lineup

0:58:47from the year before.

0:58:48Whereas for the last, I don't know, 15, 16 years,

0:58:52they've really had a lot of continuity

0:58:56from season to season.

0:58:57I don't know.

0:58:59It's either gonna be a brutal year to be a Yankee fan,

0:59:01a real brutal, I mean, just really horrible,

0:59:05or some of these young guys and the new guys

0:59:08are gonna step up and it's gonna be kinda awesome

0:59:10because it might be reinvigorating

0:59:13to get some new blood onto the lineup

0:59:15if they can play first place baseball?

0:59:19- Well, let's hope so.

0:59:21I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

0:59:25Let's see what happens.

0:59:27But let's get back to Chrome and WebKit.

0:59:32- Blink. - And Blink.

0:59:33- I'm not sure about that name.

0:59:36I still think, I'm still scarred from 1995

0:59:40when the Blink tag was hooked up in Netscape.

0:59:44I'm not sure if that's a nod to that or if it's something else.

0:59:48I guess it's supposed to be about how fast it is.

0:59:50I mean, that's what they say is there.

0:59:52I mean, and admittedly, Chrome is a very, very fast browser,

0:59:56maybe the fastest of the major browsers.

0:59:59You know, I'm not sure if it's also supposed to be like a wink, wink,

1:00:04nudge, nudge to the Blink tag.

1:00:07>> You know, I don't know what the name is.

1:00:09I bet you most of those kids don't even know the Blink tag.

1:00:13they may have not even remembered it.

1:00:15Yeah, you know what that might be.

1:00:17It might be.

1:00:18So the politics of this whole situation is pretty interesting.

1:00:23That post by Rob Isaac, who's a developer based in New Zealand, was pretty fun to read.

1:00:31Actually he did the bullshit to English translation on the whole FAQ on Blink, which was pretty

1:00:39awesome to read.

1:00:40Yeah, and he took a very "this is political and we're trying to screw Apple" sort of stance

1:00:44to it. I'm not sure that that's true, and I'm not one, I think my reputation is one to sort of,

1:00:49by default, you know, to be one to think that app, that Google is a bit more scheming and

1:00:56less open and less, or more disingenuous than people give them credit for. But I'm not sure

1:01:02that's the case here. I really don't. I really don't know what to make of this.

1:01:07Look, there's a little bit of truth that there's politics involved.

1:01:13And I think there is a truth that WebKit has become a little bit, you know, big and bloated,

1:01:19I guess.

1:01:20I mean, if that's the right way to describe it.

1:01:22So…

1:01:23Well, or at least the… from their perspective as the developers of WebKit, it has gotten

1:01:29bloated, right?

1:01:31And I think that's the argument that, forget his name, but one of the Chrome developers

1:01:34made was that it's just got all of these build targets for platforms that Chrome doesn't

1:01:39care about.

1:01:40So why are they – they're stuck making sure that all of their changes don't cause

1:01:46problems on all of these other platforms that use WebKit that Chrome doesn't care about

1:01:50because Chrome only runs on Mac, Windows, iOS, and Android, right?

1:01:55So why do they care if it causes a problem on the Nokia phone or something like that

1:02:00or, you know, Blackberry?

1:02:02You know, why are they developing, fixing bugs that they don't care about?

1:02:07Right.

1:02:08I, you know, I totally see their standpoint on this.

1:02:11I think it'll be, I've also heard, and I don't know if you've heard something similar that

1:02:16Apple is working on their own, you know, twist on, on WebKit and whatnot.

1:02:26So

1:02:27You know what?

1:02:28I did hear something like that.

1:02:31And again, I don't, what I heard somebody, something, something about maybe a new web

1:02:36rendering engine from Apple, I don't think, when I hear new web rendering engine, I don't

1:02:41think brand new, although that is what Mozilla and Samsung are apparently working on.

1:02:46I think it's another, you know, it's starting with WebKit and doing something new with it,

1:02:51you know.

1:02:52And I do think that's the one thing that people aren't clear about, a lot of people aren't

1:02:54clear about with Blink, is that Blink is not like a brand new web rendering engine from

1:02:59Google and they're walking away from WebKit. Blink is Google saying we're taking a fork of WebKit as

1:03:05it stands today and making our own new thing Blink starting with it. In the same way that WebKit

1:03:12didn't start from scratch, it started with look we're going to take khtml and make this thing

1:03:17called WebKit from it. You know, I think that that translation from Isaac that you talked to,

1:03:27He seemed to me seem to be under the impression that they're talking up a new a brand new web engine in blink

1:03:34But that's not what blink is

1:03:36well

1:03:38It could be in the future right like sir look. They they have a lot of you know

1:03:44invested in in in in Chrome right Chrome OS and the Chrome browser

1:03:51So it would make perfect sense for them to do what they need to do

1:03:55to make that investment pay off properly.

1:03:58- Well.

1:03:59- I mean, look, just these are big companies

1:04:03with big businesses, right?

1:04:05I wouldn't put it past them to do it.

1:04:08And you know, I wouldn't, I guess, yes,

1:04:12as a user of the web and web services,

1:04:16this is going to be a little bit painful

1:04:21and not right, but I guess, you know,

1:04:24what happens next is is still to be seen right I don't know if it's gonna be

1:04:31painful I I'm I don't I think it's a different I think the way that these

1:04:34browser wars go today is very different from those of the late 90s where it

1:04:43really was so hard then to have even moderately complicated web app that

1:04:52worked in all the major browsers and on Mac and Windows. It really was almost like you

1:04:57had to rewrite it each time for each one and detect each one. And then when somebody else

1:05:03came out with a new browser, it didn't work at all because it wasn't one of the browsers

1:05:06you actually sniffed for and explicitly served the custom code for. I don't think that we're

1:05:12seeing that anymore. I feel like, you know, I feel like there's this baseline of HTML5.

1:05:17I feel like HTML5 standards thing has been so successful

1:05:23that that's a really-- it's a pretty consistent baseline

1:05:25that developers can hit.

1:05:27And even IE does a pretty good job with it nowadays.

1:05:31I think it's more about what's coming next, the next stuff.

1:05:36It's not the stuff that we already have,

1:05:38like how does the CSS3 we're already using render,

1:05:42and what's the spacing, and stuff like that.

1:05:44I think it's about stuff like for Google,

1:05:46might be about like, what do they call it, NACL, the Native Client, which is just, you

1:05:54know, hasn't really taken off yet. But I know a lot of people who really keenly think that

1:05:59it might be a big new thing coming. But it's this way to get native code, code that runs

1:06:05as fast as native compiled code, running in the browser, but with all the security advantages

1:06:12of a browser where it's all sandboxed from your actual computer. So you're getting, you know,

1:06:17you could have a game that runs through Chrome with native performance, not JavaScript performance,

1:06:24not let's make JavaScript faster, but actual native performance and, you know, the hooking up to the

1:06:30graphics processor on the computer and getting, you know, OpenGL and stuff like that.

1:06:41But with the-- look, you don't have to install anything.

1:06:43You just go to this URL and the native code loads,

1:06:47just like you go to a website.

1:06:48So getting that baked into their web rendering engine

1:06:53at whatever layer they see as the best fit

1:06:56is a huge win for Google, I think,

1:06:59as opposed to trying to get Apple to allow them to put it

1:07:02in the WebKit, which I think wasn't going to happen.

1:07:04Whether that's for politics or whether Apple

1:07:08has good reasons for that, you don't even have to--

1:07:10you don't have to agree what the reason was. It's, you know, it just probably wasn't going to happen

1:07:14as long as Apple was in charge of WebKit. But maybe Apple wants to do their own version of

1:07:19that, right? Like that's pretty likely too. It very well could be. I definitely think so. And,

1:07:25you know, and Apple, that's one of those ways that Apple and Google are different is that culturally

1:07:30Google will talk about what it's doing first and then ship it. You know, Google Glass, another

1:07:36example right been talking about it for a while been showing it for a while

1:07:40having a preview you know the way Apple does stuff is they keep it secret secret

1:07:44secret secret okay now it's for sale next week and that's the same way it was

1:07:48with WebKit and what do you call it a multi-processing model where the the

1:07:55rendering engine is separate from the browser application both for security

1:08:00and hopefully for performance but you know so far in Safari I don't think it's

1:08:04out that way for performance. But Chrome has this multi-process rendering model where each

1:08:11tab you open gets a separate process called a WebKit renderer that just renders that tab.

1:08:20Safari has one separate process that renders all of your tabs, but it is still a separate

1:08:24process from the actual Safari browser application. But it's two totally different ways of doing

1:08:30doing it. And you know, that's just one of the points of conflict between Google and

1:08:36Apple and WebKit over the last few years.

1:08:39You know, somebody really needs to write an explainer for human beings, right? Like, what

1:08:45it really means for people. I mean, I'm trying to figure out, you know, what this really

1:08:51means. And like, you know, and it's like really hard to understand.

1:08:54I it's very hard for me to understand. And I've been as close to this stuff as you know,

1:09:00I could be for all along. I mean all the way from like 1995, but it's really really hard.

1:09:05I think it's you know web rendering engines have become so

1:09:08sprawling in scope and so important to everybody in daily use that it's

1:09:13It's almost hard to get your head wrapped around everything that they do

1:09:17so

1:09:20before we

1:09:22Stop talking about this stuff. Can I ask you one question? You can ask me anything home?

1:09:27So what does Apple do next in your opinion?

1:09:30Overall or just with the web rendering engines no would like the product being a picture a big picture I

1:09:38Think they just keep going as they've been going I think you know new iPhone

1:09:48new iPads and

1:09:51You know who knows what else but I don't know that they need to do much else

1:09:55I think that hardware-wise, their machine has been working.

1:09:59Machine meaning that the whole operation has been working just terrific, I think, year

1:10:05after year pumping out significant improvements.

1:10:09I think it's like we said half an hour ago, I think it's the cloud services is the big

1:10:14can they do it.

1:10:15Great.

1:10:16Do you think they need to change a little bit how they work as a company?

1:10:23the privacy they worked with in the past may have worked in the era of Steve Jobs when

1:10:28he was the storyteller of the company or do they need to change their tactics?

1:10:34You know, I was thinking about this earlier in the show and I didn't say it, but I do

1:10:37think that one of the areas where maybe they really might need to change is with the cloud

1:10:42services, I think that they need to iterate faster.

1:10:47I think that this schedule of, we'll tell you what we've been up to at WWDC and then

1:10:55you'll hear from us again in 12 months.

1:10:58It doesn't, it works for hardware.

1:11:00As frustrating as some people are that they don't talk about hardware, they don't release

1:11:04a phone every three months or that they don't talk about new phones six months in advance,

1:11:09you know, because people just are dying to know about it.

1:11:11It does work for them to keep the hardware secret until they're ready.

1:11:16sort of works for them with the system software because they can unveil it at something like

1:11:21WWDC as a beta to get developers on board two three months in advance

1:11:25But they get to unveil it at a show and and get a lot of publicity at it

1:11:31but I think with the cloud stuff like you said Facebook is saying that they're going to be updating the

1:11:36Facebook home on a monthly schedule

1:11:39Right. I feel like with the iCloud stuff waiting a year between

1:11:46updates to iCloud, it just doesn't work.

1:11:51And it doesn't work for developers, and it doesn't work for users, right?

1:11:54I feel like – and this core data syncing thing is the epitome of this problem, because

1:12:04it's not just that they haven't fixed it.

1:12:07It's that developers don't even know if they're going to fix it, right?

1:12:11Apple actually even have-- is Apple taking this as seriously as the developers who are

1:12:16depending upon it hope that they are? Nobody knows, right? So if you're this developer,

1:12:21if you're developing an app for the iOS or the Mac or something like that, and your app

1:12:26depends on Core Data, and you're hoping to use or you're trying to use, you've actually

1:12:30got it in the store and it's supposed to be using Core Data syncing, but your users are

1:12:34running into these bugs that are like wiping out their whole library on the iPhone, and

1:12:40And then, you know, hopefully when it syncs, whatever's in the iCloud version is what they

1:12:44had before.

1:12:45And if not, they've lost data.

1:12:49And you don't know.

1:12:50Is Apple taking this seriously and you should wait, wait for WWDC because there's good news

1:12:55coming?

1:12:56But if you don't know, if you just, you ask and you get nothing back, what is that, what

1:13:01should you do?

1:13:02Should you wait anyway or should you decide, "I'm going to bite the bullet and rewrite

1:13:06the whole thing from scratch and use something else?"

1:13:08And I feel like that uncertainty is worse.

1:13:11It's like the worst situation that the developers could be in.

1:13:15So in terms of where Apple should go, I feel like with the iCloud stuff that developers

1:13:20are relying on, I really feel like open maybe isn't the right word, but they just need to

1:13:25iterate more quickly in terms of updates and in terms of conveying to developers where

1:13:32this is going.

1:13:33Right. I think that would be a good change if they made I would be in favor of something

1:13:40like that. It'd be fun to see them kind of adopt to this new world in a different way.

1:13:46Here's a here's another way to put it. There's an old adage, especially from the open source world

1:13:52to ship early and often. And Apple's never been a ship early and often company Apple's been a

1:13:58work on it and keep it and iterate. Do the often part. Do the iterate part, but do it

1:14:03all internally and wait until it's ready and then ship it.

1:14:06I feel like with iCloud, they did ship early. They unveiled iCloud as early as they feasibly

1:14:14could. And some of the stuff, like I said, the key value storage stuff worked great.

1:14:18I think the backup stuff has worked great, and I think it was worth unveiling. The core

1:14:22data stuff obviously hasn't. They did the early part, but they haven't done the often

1:14:26part and I feel like they go together. You suffer if you do the early

1:14:31without the often. Well let's see how they change and they adapt. So what do

1:14:37you think Apple is going to do? What do you think the rest of the year for Apple

1:14:41is going to look like? So I am not a big believer in the iWatch that's number one.

1:14:48I don't think they should be even bothering with stuff like that. I do

1:14:53I do believe that they will do something you will wear.

1:14:58They will make a wearable computer,

1:15:00whether it's for health reasons or it's a sensor device

1:15:04which uses your iPhone to do interesting things.

1:15:07That would be my number one prediction,

1:15:11that that is something they will release, not the iWatch.

1:15:14And the number two I think they will do

1:15:18and they are probably thinking about is

1:15:22how do they create a more jointed experience inside of iOS, like how to

1:15:33make all these applications talk to each other and make the

1:15:38interface more useful and more contextual, sort of like how they started

1:15:43off with the notifications and with notification type functionality

1:15:49becoming more center stage.

1:15:52That is something I hope they're working on, they should be working on, and thinking about.

1:15:58I think that would be my prediction for next 12 to 18 months.

1:16:03That is the direction, those two things.

1:16:05Dave Asprey Yeah, I would love for WWDC, I would love

1:16:10for the major announcements to be significant improvements to iCloud, and maybe even secondarily,

1:16:17and better inter-application communication.

1:16:23And I really do hope that that's what they've been working on, and I really do hope that

1:16:30the things we saw last year with the little tweet sheets and the Facebook status update

1:16:35sheets are examples of what they are working on a way to open up to third-party developers,

1:16:45right?

1:16:46two these two ones that they're going to bake into the system but that

1:16:51hopefully I would love it in iOS 7 if something like that could anybody could

1:16:56have it so like what Marco Arment could have a send to instapaper sheet that any

1:17:01app if you have instapaper installed when you hit the share button the send

1:17:05to instapaper thing automatically shows up and then the URL that the app has

1:17:11has, whatever app, whether it's a Twitter client or an email app or anything, you hit

1:17:18this share, there's send to Instapaper, and a Marco-designed sheet drops down. You don't

1:17:23switch to the app. This sheet drops down right in the app and lets you set which folder it's

1:17:29going to and set a title for it or something like that and send it. That sort of integration,

1:17:38I think it's almost limitless what the things could be.

1:17:42And it's definitely an area where they're behind

1:17:45both Android and Windows Phone 7,

1:17:47which have things more or less like that.

1:17:50- Yep, and you know, last point I wanna make, John,

1:17:56I think people who write about Apple

1:17:59and I think their job has become much tougher

1:18:04in the post-Steve Jobs multi-competition landscape,

1:18:09because not everything Apple is gonna do is gonna be great.

1:18:14And I think it is gonna be good for us to think about that

1:18:19and make them constantly think about

1:18:22what they're doing wrong.

1:18:23I think it's like a hard thing to do,

1:18:25but I think the blogging community doesn't talk about

1:18:29the things they're not doing well as often.

1:18:32So I wish they would-- I think it's something which-- I think

1:18:39about a lot.

1:18:39I think it's important to kind of remind them

1:18:42that they need to be thinking about the internet.

1:18:44They need to be thinking about data.

1:18:47They need to be thinking about how

1:18:48to build these new connected experiences.

1:18:53And I wish-- it would be good to have a more deeper dialogue

1:19:00with the company as well.

1:19:02I think that's something we should talk about more often.

1:19:05- Yeah, well, and-- - That's my wish list, right?

1:19:07Like, I mean, I'm not, it's not like a,

1:19:09like, I think about the world in that sort of a way,

1:19:14so I guess I'm thinking in,

1:19:16with those parameters right now about everything.

1:19:22- It's, you know, it's funny,

1:19:23because we just this past week

1:19:25had the three-year anniversary

1:19:26of when the original iPad shipped,

1:19:28And it just seems crazy that it was only three years ago.

1:19:33Because it's like, I really can't even

1:19:35imagine what it was like going on an airplane

1:19:37and not seeing everybody holding an iPad of one shape or another.

1:19:41And the people who don't have an iPad

1:19:43have some kind of iPad knockoff.

1:19:47It seems crazy.

1:19:48But on the other hand, here we are three years in,

1:19:52and it still is so hard to send something from one app

1:19:55to another, other than just copy and paste,

1:19:58which is, you know, it doesn't even work for some things.

1:20:02And I feel like there's an under appreciation

1:20:05for the amount of work people actually want to do.

1:20:08I mean, I'm saying from Apple's perspective,

1:20:10the work that people want to do,

1:20:11but that requires more integration

1:20:15between different applications.

1:20:17You know, that work on computers is no longer,

1:20:22you know, right from day one,

1:20:23they had the numbers spreadsheet, right?

1:20:25But how many people really spend,

1:20:26I mean, I know some people do,

1:20:28But most people I know don't really sit down and spend hours working on spreadsheets anymore.

1:20:32That was like 20 years ago.

1:20:34People don't just open their iPad and work on a spreadsheet.

1:20:37It's this sort of back and forth interplay between applications and data that keeps coming

1:20:42in over the internet.

1:20:44Right.

1:20:45You know, it is a lot of things going on right now.

1:20:53I think even as I sit today and I think about what does the world look like going forward,

1:21:05it's so hard to even project today.

1:21:09Five years ago, in 2007, when the iPhone came, it was fairly easy to see and actually draw

1:21:18a linear conclusion as to where the mobile world was gonna go, right?

1:21:24Like this is where everybody was gonna copy that design and that user experience and now

1:21:31suddenly it's not as clear.

1:21:34Like the whole world either seems to be moving forward at a much rapid space or at the end

1:21:40at the same time it's stuck in the same place.

1:21:43So it just is like a really hard time to figure out what's going on in technology.

1:21:47I agree. And it's, you know, the three year anniversary of the iPad makes for a nice halfway

1:21:53point for the distance from the iPhone, right? So the iPad came three years after the iPhone.

1:22:01So when the iPad shipped three years ago, the iPhone was still as new then as the iPad

1:22:06is today. Does that make sense?

1:22:07Right.

1:22:08Six years ago was the iPhone. Three years in, we had the iPad. Now we're another three

1:22:12years later and the iPhone is certainly and and certainly iPhone like phones are

1:22:18they're just that's just the baseline we just we just assume that now right I do

1:22:25feel like it were at an interesting juncture as to where we go next well you

1:22:29and I will keep talking about it and writing about it and it'll be fun who

1:22:34knows maybe I'll be out soon to see a new new iDevice possibly great well I

1:22:39I will look forward to seeing you.

1:22:41- Yeah, save me a seat in the room.

1:22:42I'll sit next to you.

1:22:43- Absolutely.

1:22:44- Om, thanks for being here.

1:22:45Om Malik, you can always read more at GigaOm.com.

1:22:49Everybody probably reads it every day,

1:22:50and he's got the shortest Twitter handle

1:22:52of anybody I know, O-M.

1:22:55Thanks, Om.

1:22:56- Thank you, John, for having me.

1:22:57It's always wonderful to talk to you.