0:00:00Hi Mike. Oh, hello. We're here. It's like a regular episode of Cortex. Ah, yes. Just a normal, non-special episode. Normal-tex.
0:00:08We just ended up having two very particular episodes back to back. Yeah, this is one of those things where when you make stuff,
0:00:18sometimes you have this little moment where it's like, oh, it just so happens to work out that we ended up with two special episodes in a row.
0:00:24But then what always happens is if you do two of something in a row, people are like,
0:00:29oh my god, is this what it's going to be like forever? I was like, no, no, it's okay guys. Like sometimes this just happens.
0:00:35We've been talking
0:00:37vaguely for like a year now maybe about trying to do
0:00:41more what we're thinking of as like single topic episodes. We're like trying to create these episodes that are maybe
0:00:49easier jumping on points for the show.
0:00:52Yeah. Because we kind of feel like we had them already naturally, like state of the apps and yearly themes became these
0:00:59singular things which aren't part of the month by month timeline of the show where we've kind of run
0:01:06through a whole year talking. This day, like on this episode, we're going to do follow-up from previous episodes,
0:01:11but those episodes don't have any of that and we noticed that people seem to really like them.
0:01:15So we were trying to find ways to add more
0:01:18special things throughout the year. The goal really is to add more episodes as opposed to
0:01:24turning more of our like regular episodes into these specials.
0:01:28Yeah, it's one of these things just like thinking about the show.
0:01:30One of the things that's been
0:01:33interesting to see that we talked about before is just like the YouTube channel is doing really well
0:01:37and I feel like the YouTube channel has become a way to onboard people to the whole rest of the show.
0:01:42And
0:01:44you know me, Mike. I love a good spreadsheet. I love looking at some data and I was just really aware of like,
0:01:50oh a lot of our shows that tend to be
0:01:53dominated by a single topic seem like they're significantly better for new people.
0:01:58And so this was also realizing like we've been kind of doing a lot of
0:02:02half special episodes without even realizing it. So like a lot of our like book reviews, right?
0:02:09Or like talking about a documentary. That kind of stuff was like basically half a special.
0:02:14And as with many things it seems so obvious in retrospect, but you discover, oh, right when there's a clear topic
0:02:23it's just a much easier place for people to start with a podcast that they're not familiar with.
0:02:29And I feel like this is always the fundamental problem for podcasts is discovery. And so many podcasts you have the issue of,
0:02:36oh god, there's like hundreds of episodes. Do I need to start at the beginning? Where do I go?
0:02:41Any individual episode is dominated by everything else that came before right at the start.
0:02:48And so like just jumping in at a random point is hard. So we thought like, okay, let's just follow the data here
0:02:54and see if we can do some more of these like
0:02:56individual episodes that are clearly focused on a thing as a way to get people on board
0:03:03nice and easy with the show.
0:03:05And as you said, I really want to underscore this. These are extra.
0:03:09We're not going to make the show like lose all of its through line.
0:03:12Because that's important to me too because I also think that this might be a reason somebody comes to the show
0:03:18but then they end up sticking around for our audio issues.
0:03:22You know what I mean? Like because that just becomes a thing.
0:03:24And I would just say to you now talking about putting the episode in time,
0:03:27I wasn't listening to you for about 25 seconds there because I just got my invite to go to Apple Park for WWDC.
0:03:33Hey!
0:03:35Congratulations. Oh my god.
0:03:37We're going to try and do it again.
0:03:39Wow!
0:03:40We create the prayer circle amongst all cortexes. We all join hands that Mike actually f***ing makes it this time.
0:03:48And doesn't sit in a hotel room for two weeks.
0:03:51Oh, dude, I'm so excited for you. Oh, that's really great.
0:03:54It says you're invited.
0:03:57Like I'm not gonna lie, like when we were talking before and the invite hadn't come through.
0:04:03Like I wasn't gonna say anything but I had a big cloud of "oh no" fill the room.
0:04:09So, oh, I'm so pumped. Oh, that's great. That is like that is the best news all week.
0:04:15I am so happy you got that invitation.
0:04:17So I'm gonna do it. I'm doing it. Nothing's gonna stop me now. I'm gonna be there. So what are your plans?
0:04:23What's gonna happen? What can you share that you're gonna be doing?
0:04:26Well, all I know right now is it says I will be in person to watch the keynote address at Apple Park.
0:04:32Like that's all I have. That will be if I actually can do it the realization of 15 years of work.
0:04:40Like this is my bucket list item, which is why it was so soul crushing last year.
0:04:46It's like this is for me in that part of my work of like Apple focus podcasting the one thing left.
0:04:56It's the one goal, the one dream left to achieve is get to it.
0:05:02Pretty much every single one of my colleagues at this point has done it and I nearly had it and I couldn't do it last year.
0:05:09Because in case you're new to the show because you just found state of the hardware.
0:05:13Last year I was invited to WWDC. I made it out and I tested positive coronavirus the day before so I couldn't go.
0:05:23And this time I'm locking myself down. No one's coming near me and I'm gonna go and I'm gonna be there and I'm so excited.
0:05:33I want to get some photos of Mike Bubble Wrap Boy on the airplane.
0:05:38Just my whole head covered in 95 masks.
0:05:42This is the time to be a lunatic and buy all of the eight seats around your seat.
0:05:48Like you buy a middle seat and buy all of the immediate seats around you.
0:05:51I mean like nobody's here right when people move over and they go "Oh we're a family we wanted to sit together there's a free row how delightful."
0:05:59You say "No I purchased those seats get out of here."
0:06:03Oh man I'm so relieved and so happy.
0:06:09Oh that's fantastic Mike. I've been so nervous about it right.
0:06:13Because it's just like I just want to do it you know.
0:06:15And like it felt like it was gonna happen today and it's happened today and I feel like a weight has been lifted off my shoulders.
0:06:24I just want to get there. I'm gonna go to Apple Park. I'm gonna see the presentation.
0:06:29All I'm gonna be doing is sitting in a chair and watching a screen.
0:06:32But I will be doing it inside the venue. That's all I want to do.
0:06:36To like I am a media professional going to the thing.
0:06:42Like I will be in the media area with the other media professionals.
0:06:47I have worked so hard for so long to achieve this thing.
0:06:53To be recognized as someone who should be there.
0:06:58And my hope Grey like that I will my first keynote is going to be one of the defining keynotes right.
0:07:06Like the introduction of a brand new platform.
0:07:10And if that's the case right and I get that I kind of feel like you know what.
0:07:14Missing out on last year's worth it because I will be able to say like my first one was this one.
0:07:19Oh man yeah.
0:07:21I'm trying to think of a way to phrase something right.
0:07:25Which is like Apple doesn't owe anything to anyone right.
0:07:29Like they can do whatever they want. They can invite whoever they want.
0:07:33For whatever wacky and whimsical arbitrary reasons fills their little Apple heart with joy.
0:07:39Whatever like they can do what they want.
0:07:40But at the same time I can think of no one else in the tech industry who deserves to be there more.
0:07:51Who hasn't been there yet right.
0:07:53It's like it's the intersection of these three things.
0:07:56So our next episode we're going to be recording after WWDC.
0:08:01Oh right right of course yes.
0:08:03So not only will it be our WWDC episode.
0:08:06Remember that the last half of last year's which was really sad.
0:08:09And this year it should be really happy.
0:08:12I really have the feeling that I just keep like blocking this story out of my brain.
0:08:15Because it's too sad to think about.
0:08:17A couple of months ago I went back and listened.
0:08:21Because like there were three shows that I did right.
0:08:24So I did like Upgrade, Connected and Cortex.
0:08:27And I just went back and listened to like the intro of them all.
0:08:31Because I just wanted to like remind myself of that moment.
0:08:36And it was just like listening back to it was like wow.
0:08:38Like that just feels like a completely different time.
0:08:41Like a different person in a way.
0:08:43It was just such a strange set of circumstances where I had to.
0:08:48I've never really had something like this happen to me before.
0:08:51Where especially with Upgrade.
0:08:54Because that was on keynote day right.
0:08:56Where I just had to dig deep and pull it together and get the work done.
0:09:03You have a job to do and you just gotta do that job.
0:09:06You are very sad but you've got to make it happen.
0:09:09I just was like trying to recall like how did I sound.
0:09:14Like and I actually think I did a good job like listening back to it.
0:09:18And just getting on with it.
0:09:19So this year will be very different I think.
0:09:23- Yeah.
0:09:24We're in the timeline now.
0:09:27- I was really hoping this was going to happen today.
0:09:31That it would come during our recording.
0:09:33Like I was really hoping this is a good moment.
0:09:36And then I hope we'll follow it up in a few weeks with another good moment.
0:09:40This episode of Cortex is brought to you by Memberfour.
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0:12:14I have some follow up for you.
0:12:16Oh, okay.
0:12:17So I used the backpack.
0:12:19Which backpack?
0:12:19So in the last episode I told you about my new Bellroy Venture Ready backpack.
0:12:25So I've used it now as my traveling bag to replace the Peak Design bag.
0:12:31What did you think of it?
0:12:32Super in, this bag is fantastic.
0:12:34I'm really happy with it.
0:12:36It is way better for me for what I want out of a bag like this.
0:12:42I could get more in it.
0:12:43It was more logical for me where like all of the pockets are inside.
0:12:47So like it's not like where's this, where's that?
0:12:49Like it was just much simpler.
0:12:51What I will say is, you know, works for me.
0:12:54It wouldn't work for you with the way you were describing it as like you didn't want
0:12:58just a big open space.
0:12:59100% is that.
0:13:01But I like that because a lot of the stuff I'm putting in the bag goes in its own little
0:13:05pouch or whatever.
0:13:06It's just like a bunch of blocks and I just grab the ones that I need, right?
0:13:09I have the case that has my AirPods Max in.
0:13:11I have the Bellroy Tech Pouch that has my cables in.
0:13:14I have my Nintendo Switch case that has my Nintendo Switch in.
0:13:17Right, like I don't need that in pockets because it's all very protected and it just
0:13:21makes sense.
0:13:22And then I can also just like, I have a sweatshirt and just throw it in there.
0:13:25I was never able to get that to work with the Peak Design.
0:13:29I could never have put a sweatshirt in that bag with the way that I packed it.
0:13:32Like it was just not going to happen.
0:13:34But this one was much more simple.
0:13:36Like the water bottle pocket was easy.
0:13:38I hate the side pockets on the Peak Design.
0:13:40Trying to get a water bottle in there is almost impossible for me.
0:13:43But this just was easier.
0:13:45I really liked the little secret pocket to put my passport and my keys in and it has
0:13:49the little thing I could clip my keys to.
0:13:51These are all simple things.
0:13:53Yeah, but it's what makes the difference in backpacks though.
0:13:55It's like, it's the backpacks are entirely the sum of small details.
0:13:59So yeah, yeah.
0:14:00And Cortex and Adam wrote in to Cortexfeedback.com to let us know about a line of Bellroy bags
0:14:06that I didn't even know existed called the Transit Workpack line.
0:14:10They do a 20, 28 and 38 litre of these.
0:14:13This is very similar to the bag that I have, but is more focused on the daily commute rather
0:14:21than the, like the bag I got is more like a, you're going out into the world.
0:14:26But that was kind of perfect for me for general travel, like as a travel bag.
0:14:31But this is a commuter's backpack that you can put overnight clothes in.
0:14:37They even have compression straps in the backpack, which is like very smart, I think.
0:14:41Because I've never seen that in a backpack before for people putting clothes in the bag.
0:14:45Oh, okay.
0:14:46Right, right.
0:14:47I see.
0:14:47And also there's, I think there's a little bit more structured organization in this bag
0:14:52than the one that I have.
0:14:53I don't know why I didn't think to look for a Bellroy backpack before now.
0:14:58Like I have so many products, including my daily commuter bag.
0:15:02I don't know why it never struck me to look at them to replace my travel bag.
0:15:08So I will thank Instagram ads for making this possible.
0:15:11It seems like you have gotten quite a lot of value in your life out of Instagram ads.
0:15:15This is a very normal thing.
0:15:18Like if you use Instagram enough, their advertising system really just gets to know you.
0:15:24I would say like Instagram ads are the most effective and my favorite way to receive advertising.
0:15:30Because I've found so many things on there that are genuinely useful and helpful to me.
0:15:35Like I'm happy with advertising if it feels like a two-way street.
0:15:39You're going to show me the ads anyway.
0:15:42I at least want them to work for me.
0:15:44Yeah, it is always weird when people complain about targeting advertising.
0:15:48Like I partly understand it, but I also have the feeling of like,
0:15:52but I want the ads to be relevant to me.
0:15:54Like if I have to see them anyway, I would way prefer that the ads
0:15:59have something to do with me than are just about random products.
0:16:03I don't know anyone who thanks an advertising platform as much as I hear you
0:16:09thank Instagram ads for bringing things into your life.
0:16:12It just works, man.
0:16:14It works.
0:16:14Like this is one of, you know, when like Apple did the app tracking thing?
0:16:18Yeah.
0:16:18When it said like, "Hey, do you want to..."
0:16:20Oh, right.
0:16:21You know, like the person, I was like, "No, I want the ads to remain personalized for Instagram."
0:16:26Right, right.
0:16:26Most of the time I say, "Don't track me because it's like you're opening some app for the first
0:16:30time."
0:16:30It's like, "Why would I...
0:16:32I have no relationship with you, app.
0:16:33Like why am I going to let you track me?"
0:16:35But with Instagram, it's like, "No, I want the tracking to continue because I'm getting
0:16:39value out of this."
0:16:40If they're still going to show me the ads anyway, if they become less relevant to me,
0:16:45then it's an annoyance.
0:16:46Yeah, very happy with the Bellroy backpack, the Venture Ready backpack.
0:16:50So I'm going to mark this up again of like, for me, if you buy, you know, if you want
0:16:56something and it's on Bellroy, this is how I feel like I'm just going to get it because
0:16:59I know I'm going to like it because every single Bellroy product I've owned, I have
0:17:05really enjoyed and used and I'm very happy with it.
0:17:08So yeah.
0:17:09Yeah, they're good.
0:17:10I also like their little logo.
0:17:11Their logo is very pleasing to me.
0:17:12It's nice.
0:17:12Yeah, no, this Transit work pack is intriguing to me.
0:17:16I like this, I guess they're calling it like "clam shell" thing where the whole thing opens
0:17:20if you lay it flat.
0:17:21I find that very draw-some as a product.
0:17:24This design is the same as on my one and what I really liked about it, it might be a little
0:17:28complicated here because I have a pocket on the front, but I can just open half and just
0:17:33like roll half of the bag down and it was like an easy way to get in and out.
0:17:37But I guess if you put things in that front pocket, you might not be able to fold it in
0:17:41half the same.
0:17:41Yeah, I feel like I might be drawn to this one.
0:17:46Since again, backpacks, infinite market like we discussed last time.
0:17:49I neglected to mention, I'll just mention it here because it is worth it.
0:17:52The other backpack that I do have is the Tom Bihn Daylight backpack.
0:17:58And I'll say right away, I do not love this backpack, but this is one of these cases where
0:18:05I'm trying to optimize for light and this is like the perfect backpack for that.
0:18:11If like my primary concern is just it being light, like this backpack works.
0:18:16This is interesting.
0:18:18This looks to me like I think it's in the way they're marketing it as like the backpack
0:18:23you have in your suitcase for when you go to the place.
0:18:26Which is exactly how I have used it, yes.
0:18:28So this rolls up to nothing like when it is empty, it takes up zero space in a suitcase.
0:18:34And it's funny since that show, I kind of remembered like, "Oh, right!
0:18:39I can go out with my laptop."
0:18:42And so I've actually taken this a couple of times out into the city to just like work
0:18:45in some random spots, which I haven't done since before COVID.
0:18:49Wait, did it take State of the Harbor to remind you of this?
0:18:51Yes, it did.
0:18:52Yeah, I honestly think this is one of these things where I just gotten into a habit from
0:18:59the past several years of like, "Oh, you just can't go anywhere."
0:19:03And somehow there's like lodged it in my brain.
0:19:06I'm like, "Oh, no, I like I totally can.
0:19:09I can just throw my laptop into my backpack and go somewhere sometimes."
0:19:14And so it's like, "Oh, it's been a lovely afternoon at the British Museum just like
0:19:18working on a script in their little cafe."
0:19:20It's like, this is delightful, right?
0:19:22This is the advantage of living in a major city and just being able to like go somewhere.
0:19:25And for that purpose, this is like the perfect backpack.
0:19:29I only want it to be light.
0:19:31That is my primary concern because I'm pretty much just putting a laptop in there and maybe
0:19:36like a charger and a bottle of water and that's it.
0:19:38That's all I want for it.
0:19:39Congratulations on your promotion.
0:19:42Do we have a job title for you?
0:19:44I don't know.
0:19:45Do we have a job title for me?
0:19:47I mean, we could come up with one.
0:19:48Maybe you could be like Chief Logistics Officer.
0:19:52I'll take CLO.
0:19:53That works for me.
0:19:54Is that a C-level office?
0:19:56I don't know how C-level offices work.
0:19:58It seems like they just pick a word, right?
0:19:59Everybody's like, "Yes."
0:20:01The whatever and companies are just making up whatever they want for the C-level stuff.
0:20:05Yeah, you could just make whatever you want.
0:20:06It can be whatever you want it to be.
0:20:07Yeah, so I'll take CLO.
0:20:09I'll take Chief Logistics Officer.
0:20:10That works for me.
0:20:12Actually, I'm just having a funny moment here.
0:20:14I think this is the first promotion I have ever gotten in my whole life, which I'm just
0:20:21realizing.
0:20:22I'm just trying to think of all of my jobs.
0:20:23I either never got promoted and I got one demotion, which was my very first job where
0:20:32I worked as a page at a library as a kid.
0:20:35I started, I think because of some favors my dad pulled, in the very prestigious reference
0:20:41department of the library, working as a page and helping people look up stuff.
0:20:44And then like an idiot, I needlessly antagonized my boss and got demoted to the children's
0:20:52library.
0:20:53Wow, what were you doing at the children's library?
0:20:57I was mostly just hiding and trying to avoid the shame of it, which as a tall teenager
0:21:04was really hard because in the children's library, all the bookshelves were really short.
0:21:09So it was like there was nowhere to hide in the children's library.
0:21:12It was terrible.
0:21:13I was mainly just like restocking books that little kids were returning and that kind of
0:21:17stuff.
0:21:17But yeah, so I'm just thinking, yeah, all of my other jobs, like when I worked as a
0:21:22teacher, I was aggressively avoiding promotions.
0:21:25I was offered it a couple of times and like, please know I would just rather stay a frontline
0:21:29teacher.
0:21:30So yeah, this is my very first promotion ever.
0:21:33Thanks, Mike.
0:21:34Chief Logistics Officer at Cortex Brand.
0:21:36I don't even remember how this started, but you made a spreadsheet.
0:21:40Yeah, this is one of these funny things.
0:21:43I don't really know what this is like from your perspective.
0:21:45I kind of feel like I have been bullying you for the past month and a half in some ways,
0:21:53slash also being a real overly explaining nerd is this is like my perception of it.
0:22:00But yeah, it's a thing that I've just had in the back of my mind for a long time that
0:22:04as soon as we had a second project that was of similar or larger size than the theme system
0:22:13journal, I thought, oh, at this point, it makes sense because there's enough things
0:22:19and enough data to start building a spreadsheet to try to assist the business.
0:22:24Whereas before with just the theme system, it always felt to me like there wasn't really
0:22:29enough there to work with.
0:22:31So from my perspective, what happened is the Sidekick notepad was a surprise success, which
0:22:37had the good problem to have if we were running out of stock way too fast.
0:22:42This is how it started.
0:22:45Basically, I built a little spreadsheet to try to give you some estimates about what
0:22:51was happening with the stock because I just I know from experience that when you're looking
0:22:55at data like daily sales numbers, it's very hard to accurately predict where this ends
0:23:03up over a long period of time that what seemed like small variations in daily sales over
0:23:08the space of two months can make a huge difference in like when are you actually going to run
0:23:12out or not.
0:23:13So that's what it was.
0:23:14I made this spreadsheet as starting as a piece of evidence to show you to try to talk to
0:23:21you about like, hey, we've got to change the way we do logistics around here.
0:23:25So that's my perspective on how it got started.
0:23:27And then I feel like I was basically bullying you and slowly improving this over time is
0:23:34how it feels like to me.
0:23:35But how does it feel like to you?
0:23:36What like what happened from your perspective here?
0:23:38So it I mean, it kind of started with a little spreadsheet and a bunch of phone calls where
0:23:43you were quite manic in explaining to me what you were doing.
0:23:48Is that fair?
0:23:49I don't know.
0:23:49I probably was.
0:23:50Yes, you were very excited.
0:23:51But I loved the excitement and I love the excitement.
0:23:54And it's turned out to be, I think over like a six week period or so, you've created like
0:24:00three spreadsheets.
0:24:01They just keep that's how it feels to me.
0:24:04Like it looks like this and now it's all gone and it looks like this.
0:24:07And now we have the restockotron is a thing that you've built now, which is like a dashboard
0:24:13showing all of the stuff.
0:24:14So we now have this huge spreadsheet where I input the daily sales figures for all of
0:24:20our products and it's doing some very, I assume, intense mathematics to work out what is our
0:24:28expected daily sales rate like kind of flattened out, right?
0:24:31Rather than just all the peaks and stuff.
0:24:33What are the dates that we expect a product's going to be in stock until?
0:24:37How many months of stock do we think we have?
0:24:39Like it's doing a bunch of smart stuff to predict things.
0:24:41But what I want to explain from my side is when you make a change to the spreadsheet,
0:24:46you like to explain it to me.
0:24:48And so you tell me what's going on and I get these Slack messages from you that have the
0:24:56vibe to me of you're at the train station.
0:25:00There are two trains coming towards each other.
0:25:03One is at 60 miles an hour and one is at 40 miles an hour.
0:25:06Which one will find its way to Albuquerque quickest?
0:25:09That is how every single message you have sent me about the spreadsheet reads to me.
0:25:12I cannot understand the, I know all of the words.
0:25:18Oh no.
0:25:19But when you put them together, I don't understand any of it.
0:25:25Zero.
0:25:26Nothing.
0:25:27What I understand is the output.
0:25:31Oh God, I feel shame.
0:25:31So like the output is fantastic.
0:25:34And like just the spreadsheet itself is incredible.
0:25:38But as you're trying to explain things to me, I don't understand what it means.
0:25:46I just don't, it doesn't make any sense to me at all.
0:25:51But I love that you love it.
0:25:53Oh, oh my.
0:25:55Okay.
0:26:01Well, that's interesting to take on board because, yeah.
0:26:07I've been basically kind of treating this as like extremely lightweight app developments
0:26:14and giving Mike like change logs, right?
0:26:17Of like, oh, here's what's changed on the spreadsheet.
0:26:19Here's what's changed on the spreadsheet.
0:26:20Okay.
0:26:21So here's what I said.
0:26:21When you give me those, it's good.
0:26:24But I want, can I read an example?
0:26:26Okay.
0:26:27About 10 days ago, you completely redid the spreadsheet and exploded us like with explaining
0:26:33things to me, right?
0:26:34I woke up with some good ideas.
0:26:37It was fantastic.
0:26:37Look, I need you to understand.
0:26:40I am over the moon that you have made this and that you want to be like this engaged
0:26:45with such specific things like this, right?
0:26:47Like I'm super excited about that.
0:26:50Okay.
0:26:52Pen data is still new, which the error range column is telling you by being a shorthand
0:26:57for how unconfident it is in all of the numbers in that row.
0:27:00Edited to add, I should probably reverse that to be more human readable.
0:27:05Like I did, I'm reading these things and I'm like, hmm.
0:27:09And I get this feeling of like, should I understand what that means?
0:27:15I don't, I don't know.
0:27:17Should understand what it means.
0:27:19You don't need to know, but I will just point out that the new predictors starts out on
0:27:25column BN.
0:27:26So column C through BM were all hidden calculations.
0:27:29I'm like, ah, yes, of course.
0:27:32You must hide the calculations.
0:27:34See, like, okay.
0:27:35I'm trying to like articulate, like what is it that I've been trying to express here?
0:27:39And I think what it is is a little bit of my concern level is very high that you won't
0:27:46take the spreadsheet seriously.
0:27:48And in some ways the spreadsheet is the manifestation of my panic over not running out of stock.
0:27:56Okay.
0:27:57Like I think as a company, there's a couple of things that are just major problems that
0:28:02people often don't consider.
0:28:04And like, we've talked about this on the show before that like running out of stock
0:28:07is a thing that sounds like it's great because you've sold all your things, but it's
0:28:12a real business problem to like not have stock in.
0:28:16Yeah.
0:28:16And since I've taken over as like chief logistics officer here, putting things together
0:28:22in terms of numbers to me has been like, Oh my God, like being out of stock for a month
0:28:28is a disaster.
0:28:29Cause we have actual numbers of what that means.
0:28:32And then I'm trying to predict like, Ooh, I think it is non obvious that we need to
0:28:38have much more stock on hand than we previously thought.
0:28:43And so my feeling is like, I'm trying to put together a document of evidence that shows
0:28:48this and like make some recommendations about how much stock we should be buying when, but
0:28:52I'm constantly afraid that when I change something, you're going to be like, Hey,
0:28:57wait, this is a good idea.
0:28:59Hey, wait, that estimate changed by 50%.
0:29:01Like what's even happening over here in this like clown logistics department.
0:29:05If like the estimates are going up and down by 50%.
0:29:08They're like, these guys in the logistics department, they're going wild over here.
0:29:11Yeah, exactly.
0:29:12Like I'm like down at the coffee machines slacking you off to the other employees.
0:29:17Yeah.
0:29:17But like you're, you're, you're going to look at it and you end like, so I think the
0:29:21thing with that, like that message about the error rate, I know exactly what I was thinking
0:29:24where I was like, I was trying to express like, Oh, Hey, this, this is trying to show
0:29:29you what the anticipated error rate in these calculations is.
0:29:32So like the real value is this value plus or minus 45%.
0:29:36Like that's just something that we need to keep in mind.
0:29:39So I think that's what it is.
0:29:42Like, I feel the need to explain every time I've changed something because I don't want
0:29:47you to feel like I'm just making random changes over here.
0:29:52And it's like, Oh, these numbers keep going like up and down.
0:29:55And like today he says, I need to order X many units.
0:29:58And then tomorrow he says, I need to order twice X units.
0:30:01And it's like, why, like what changed between yesterday and today?
0:30:05And then that's where I'm coming in going like, well, let me tell you what changed between
0:30:09yesterday and today.
0:30:09Like I'm using a different method to try to estimate what the resubscribe rate is for
0:30:15theme system journals, like that kind of thing.
0:30:16Here's the thing that you need to know, right?
0:30:19I feel like we're having, this is like business therapy at the moment.
0:30:22Yeah.
0:30:22I trust you.
0:30:27That's what you need to know.
0:30:27Like this thing that you're making, I trust you.
0:30:29If you tell me it's this and this is the day, I will just trust you.
0:30:33Because what I know is I don't understand how to do this.
0:30:37Like I have been doing this stuff on gut.
0:30:40Yeah.
0:30:41Yeah.
0:30:41Right.
0:30:41And we've done okay.
0:30:44Yeah.
0:30:44But I'm doing it on gut and that's not a sustainable long-term thing.
0:30:48And I know that at some point we had to get smart about this.
0:30:52I didn't know that this would be something you would be so engaged in.
0:30:55And now I'm super happy that one of us is doing this.
0:30:59Yeah.
0:30:59And I guarantee you the best person for the job is the guy who's currently doing it because
0:31:05I don't understand like you tell me these terms and like, and I get what they mean,
0:31:11but I don't know how you get there.
0:31:13So like one of the things you're talking about a lot is like a confidence rate of like the
0:31:18amount of data that you're putting into the system is allowing you to be able to predict
0:31:23things confidently.
0:31:24And each product has a confidence rating in the restockotron about how confident you are
0:31:31in the dates that you're giving, right?
0:31:33Of like when it needs to be restocked.
0:31:34I don't understand how you are able to calculate that.
0:31:40Like I know what goes in and I know what comes out, but like this is everything in the middle.
0:31:45I don't get it.
0:31:46I've never been able to understand things like this, like the calculations required.
0:31:50And so like you can please feel free to continue giving me this information, but like there
0:31:56are things of it that are very helpful.
0:31:58Like when we had a conversation today about subscriber numbers and how they're being
0:32:03calculated and like that I understand, but like when you're like, so this is how I did
0:32:08this.
0:32:08And if you want to tell me, because I know that like sometimes you just want to like
0:32:14and I'm like this, like people just want to say things aloud, right?
0:32:17Because it like just helps with going through a thing.
0:32:20Did you know, did I do this right?
0:32:21How does this feel when I explain it to someone?
0:32:24And maybe you're able to work through some problems if I'm asking you questions, but
0:32:29like I just need you to know I don't understand it.
0:32:31Okay.
0:32:31It's also funny that you mentioned about like what you put in and like what comes out.
0:32:38So for any aspiring spreadsheet makers out there, like this is one of my basic pieces
0:32:43of advice.
0:32:44Is the thing I've done on the spreadsheet for Mike, especially if you're working in
0:32:48a team, but even on your own, you need to have two colors on your spreadsheet.
0:32:53Make the background of some cells green and that's where information comes in and then
0:32:58some cells are blue and that's where information comes out.
0:33:02And I think like, I don't know if this is exactly your experience, but I feel like that's
0:33:06one way to try to make a spreadsheet clear of like what's happening because yeah, ultimately
0:33:11it's just a machine where you want to put some numbers in and then you should get some
0:33:16meaningful actionable information out and everything else in the middle doesn't matter,
0:33:23especially if.
0:33:24Yeah, because again, like we're in this position of I'm performing a job where I'm trying
0:33:28to give you a tool because you're ultimately the person who is working way more closely
0:33:35with the manufacturers than I ever will.
0:33:38And so you're always going to be the person making the final call about orders and how
0:33:44much are you willing to pay and like when is it going to come or if we have it shipped
0:33:48this way or that way, like what will happen?
0:33:50Eventually these are all data points, right?
0:33:52After a certain period of time, we'll know exactly how long it takes to reproduce every
0:33:56product.
0:33:57So then it can just maybe put into the system.
0:33:59You know what I mean?
0:33:59Like, oh, well, I mean, yes, that's one of the things that I want to have as an upgrade
0:34:03at some point in the future.
0:34:03And I was trying not to bug you earlier today, but I was like, Mike, I need historical data
0:34:07about how long is it between when you send the first email and when like the thing arrives
0:34:12at the warehouse?
0:34:13Like, I just want to start having historical data about that.
0:34:15But yeah, so there is this thing with all spreadsheets of input, output, and then calculations
0:34:21in between.
0:34:22And I think for lots of people when they make spreadsheets, it's not visually clear.
0:34:27Like you need to separate out these parts and then all of the quote normal cells a user
0:34:34can just completely ignore like all of the crazy stuff that's happening in the middle.
0:34:38But yeah, I think you're partly right.
0:34:41Even that little thing that you just read there, you can see that I edited to add that
0:34:46I was like, oh, wait a minute, this number that I'm giving you, it's more human readable
0:34:50if it's the opposite direction.
0:34:52I think it's just funny to me now to hear you say like, gray, either way, I don't know
0:34:57what the hell this number means.
0:34:59But I please, I don't, I want to create a good working environment.
0:35:06Please continue sharing all of the information.
0:35:09There is some stuff in there that is genuinely helpful to me, but some of it, it's going
0:35:15over my head.
0:35:15But I am and I have where like I need feel like I need to understand, I am asking for
0:35:21more clarification.
0:35:22This is just not my skill set.
0:35:24Like it just isn't.
0:35:25I don't understand how to make a spreadsheet like the one that you've made.
0:35:29Like I know how to make very simple spreadsheets.
0:35:32Like I just made one a couple of days ago to help me calculate the overall cost of a
0:35:38thing because you wanted that.
0:35:39And so I figured, well, I've been doing it all manually.
0:35:41So I'm actually just made a number spreadsheet that would just do a bunch of the calculations
0:35:45for me.
0:35:45But that's kind of where my experience starts and ends.
0:35:49You know, I know how to take this cell, multiply it by that cell.
0:35:52But I know that there's a bunch of things going on in this spreadsheet that I just don't
0:35:58know how anyone could understand.
0:36:01You showed me this book that you bought.
0:36:02No, no, no.
0:36:03Which is just like maybe the worst book for me ever written.
0:36:08But you seem very excited about it.
0:36:10Oh, right.
0:36:10The book.
0:36:11I was very excited.
0:36:12It was a book on statistics, right?
0:36:13Or something like logistic statistics.
0:36:15Yeah, well, so this is kind of embarrassing.
0:36:21What's the actual book title?
0:36:23Because my wife had a completely different reaction to that.
0:36:25Like, so both you and my wife were like, what the hell is this book that you just purchased?
0:36:31Okay, so the exact title of the book is called Understanding Variation, the Key to Managing
0:36:39Chaos.
0:36:39And it has a little picture of like a nebula on the front, you know, in like a spacey kind
0:36:46of image.
0:36:46And my wife took one look at this, and she goes, what the hell is this new age crap that
0:36:54you just bought?
0:36:55It does look like that.
0:36:56The font on the front cover is very new agey.
0:37:00Yeah, so if you didn't know anything about it, it was a completely acceptable judgment
0:37:05to make of like, what happened to my husband that he bought this dumb book, right?
0:37:09Like, she's used to weird books getting shipped to the house all the time because of my job.
0:37:15But even among someone who buys outlier books, this one caught her attention as extremely
0:37:20worrying for I can't believe this arrived.
0:37:23When I saw this, I'm like, what has happened to my co-founder Weiss?
0:37:26He bought this book!
0:37:28I don't understand.
0:37:30And even when you explained what it did, or what it was for, and you sent me some screenshots
0:37:34of some pages.
0:37:35And I don't know what it means.
0:37:37I don't know what any of it means.
0:37:39How would you describe what you think this book is?
0:37:41Like, The Lord of the Rings for statistics.
0:37:47What an interesting description there.
0:37:51Maybe that's also saying about how I feel about Lord of the Rings.
0:37:54Yeah, I feel like you've disparaged two things at once very close to my heart with Lord of
0:38:00the Rings.
0:38:00"Every count has an area of opportunity.
0:38:03Here, the area of opportunity is the number of closings each month.
0:38:07If the area of opportunity remains constant over time, then one may directly compare the
0:38:11counts."
0:38:12I don't know what it means.
0:38:15Okay, so to explain for listeners, right?
0:38:19Can you?
0:38:21No, no.
0:38:21So no, I'm going to explain in like a broad way, right?
0:38:26Which is, so what's happening and why did I buy this book and what's the deal with this
0:38:30spreadsheet?
0:38:31So, longtime listeners will know I am a big booster of getting a physics degree if you
0:38:38can.
0:38:38Like, I think if you're the kind of person who is interested in physics at all, I highly
0:38:42recommend you get a physics degree.
0:38:45And one of the main reasons for that is that people with a physics degree are just highly
0:38:52in demand in the world of employment.
0:38:54Like, I know people who will hire someone for a job with zero qualifications for that
0:39:01actual job just because they have a physics degree and it's like, I don't know, they'll
0:39:04be able to like figure it out, right?
0:39:05They can apply stuff that they've learned.
0:39:07And that's kind of what's going on here is like, "Oh, I did this physics degree, you
0:39:14know, back in college."
0:39:15And by the nature of the subject is that it teaches you all of the useful parts of math.
0:39:25It's like, it's the useful parts of math as they're applied to the physical world, but
0:39:30you can just take any of these things and apply them to other stuff.
0:39:35And so this is one of these cases where like what I'm doing with this spreadsheet, it's
0:39:42very much like, "Oh, a lot of stuff that you would do in physics if you were like running
0:39:46an experiment and you wanted to try to publish a result and then also publish error bars
0:39:52on that result."
0:39:53Like it's the exact same thing.
0:39:54It's like, "Oh, well, whether I've just taken a hundred measurements for like the
0:39:59weight of an electron or it's the like sum of daily sales volume for our company, it
0:40:06doesn't really matter what the data is.
0:40:09There's just like a bunch of tools that you can apply."
0:40:12And just like general principles about how to think about data.
0:40:15And so I'd made this spreadsheet just sort of off the top of my head with a bunch of
0:40:21like old knowledge about mathematics and statistics.
0:40:24And I bought this book because I just sort of happened to come across it also at the
0:40:30exact moment I was just thinking about this, which was I'm looking for a book which is
0:40:36kind of like the equivalent of when I switched over to trying to do an economics minor.
0:40:41I'm like, "Oh, can someone just give me an overview of what the mathematics in economics
0:40:46is?"
0:40:46And then I can just like immediately translate all the physics stuff here.
0:40:50And if there's something that they're doing in a different way, it's more obvious.
0:40:54And so this book, Understanding Variation, Key to Managing Chaos, as best I can tell
0:41:01and like having skimmed through it, it seems to be the case of like, "Oh, this is someone
0:41:05who's just recently written a book that is basically business math.
0:41:10Like here's just a bunch of business math."
0:41:12And so I want to kind of read through it and just see like how are people in this field
0:41:19using various statistical tools?
0:41:22And this is one of those kind of things of like, if there's a single idea in here that
0:41:28is novel to me, like the book is completely worth it instantly.
0:41:31So anyway, that's why I was kind of excited.
0:41:33It was like, "Oh, let me just see," because almost all of these tools I'm already familiar
0:41:38with in a different context, and it's just a bit of like, "Let me see how does someone
0:41:42apply this to business stuff in general?"
0:41:46So this book, the title is the way that it is, which like sounds very airy-fairy, but
0:41:52it's trying to get across the concept of like, how do you get your business under control
0:41:57using graphs and spreadsheets, right?
0:41:59How do you not be surprised?
0:42:01And like, and that's exactly the thing that I'm trying to do here.
0:42:05Which is what we need.
0:42:06Yeah, like how do we not be surprised?
0:42:08So important.
0:42:09This is so important because we spent the first kind of 18 months realistically of our
0:42:14business being very surprised.
0:42:16I mean, and we were surprised again, and I do feel like there is no way to apply this
0:42:23kind of thinking to a brand new product, right?
0:42:25Like, because there's no data.
0:42:27That's exactly it.
0:42:28I mean, I'd have to like double check the way it went, but I feel like the first three
0:42:32or four times we restocked the journal, we just had no idea.
0:42:36And that data would also have been complete garbage.
0:42:39Like it just wouldn't have been very helpful at all.
0:42:41So it's, there's a lot that goes on with data where it's like, you need a bunch for
0:42:48it to be useful at all.
0:42:50And just like having too little and especially having a thing where you're running up against
0:42:55a limit, but you don't have even the foggiest idea of like, did we just sell out or not?
0:43:01We couldn't have done it from the start.
0:43:02I think one of the things that I like that you're doing with the spreadsheet is eliminating
0:43:06spikes from some of the data, which I think is helpful.
0:43:10But like, if we have two days where we get a bunch more sales than usual, that it's
0:43:16not going to be considered like, well, this is the new normal.
0:43:19Yeah.
0:43:20Right?
0:43:20Like I feel like that would be such an easy way for someone to do it if they weren't
0:43:24trying to eliminate chaos.
0:43:26Yeah.
0:43:26And again, that's like just straight from a bunch of physics stuff is like, oh, you
0:43:30know, when you conduct an experiment, you're going to have some portion of the data is
0:43:34like outlier data and it just makes sense to get rid of that.
0:43:37Or you just know that some results was weird for various reasons.
0:43:43And that result doesn't help you get to what the true thing is.
0:43:46Because in some sense, like, what is the goal of this?
0:43:50It's really trying to figure out in kind of a platonic ideal world, how many units
0:43:59of each product do we sell every day?
0:44:01Yeah.
0:44:02And actually, even just explaining things to you earlier today, I realized like, oh,
0:44:05actually, I should bin the data by week.
0:44:07That makes totally more sense because our data points are actually weekly sales.
0:44:10They're not daily sales.
0:44:11Daily sales are introducing too much variation.
0:44:13What does bin the data mean?
0:44:14What are we going to do in the next version of the spreadsheet is right now you're entering
0:44:19the data points of like, each product each day, how many sold.
0:44:23But so one of the things that we can see is that there's a really big variation between
0:44:29Monday to Saturday.
0:44:31Saturday's a disaster.
0:44:32Yeah.
0:44:32It's so interesting.
0:44:34Like no one buys the products on Saturdays, every Saturday.
0:44:38Yeah.
0:44:38It's crazy.
0:44:39So this is also where like, we sort of knew this by just like talking about and casually
0:44:46looking at the data.
0:44:46Like this is a thing you told me is like, oh, Saturdays are bad.
0:44:50But then what you can do with spreadsheets and graphs is be like, how bad?
0:44:54And it's like, oh, very bad.
0:44:56Like the set that it's just so strange.
0:44:58Like Monday is great.
0:45:00It drops a little through to Friday and then Saturday it just like plunges to the center
0:45:04of the earth and then it recovers on Sunday.
0:45:06And it really is like, where does everybody go on Saturday?
0:45:10No one's thinking about work on Saturday, I guess.
0:45:13But then like, are they on Sunday?
0:45:14Like, I don't get it.
0:45:16Yeah.
0:45:16Shouldn't Fridays also be bad?
0:45:18Like, I don't get it.
0:45:19Yeah.
0:45:19I would think like Friday and Saturday should look the same, but they don't.
0:45:23But okay, so whenever you're trying to figure out anything, there's like a true number,
0:45:30but all you can do in the real world is you can take measurements and the measurements
0:45:36are just like an indication of what is the real number.
0:45:39Yeah.
0:45:40It's a bit like even if you take your own weight, right?
0:45:42You can step on a scale twice in a row and it can be a little different, right?
0:45:46So like, oh, there is some real number that is your weight at any point in time.
0:45:52But how precisely do you care about that?
0:45:55And how many measurements do you want to take?
0:45:57Like that's part of the question here.
0:45:59So there's always variation.
0:46:00And the bigger the variation, the more uncertain you are about what the real number is.
0:46:07Now, most time, if you step on a scale, for example, it's like, oh, the weight will only
0:46:11vary by like a tenth of a pound or two tenths of a pound on a good scale.
0:46:16So you can be like, all right, I know my weight within this small range.
0:46:20So that's like, good enough.
0:46:21You only ever step on the scale once and see what the actual number is.
0:46:24But it's just not like that with things like sales data.
0:46:28You can't say like, how many units are sold on a Monday?
0:46:32Because they're all over the place.
0:46:33And the problem with looking at our data and trying to predict a daily sales number is
0:46:42that the variation between Monday and Saturday is really big.
0:46:48And so that like, artificially creates more uncertainty than there really is.
0:46:54Because if we were just comparing Saturdays to Saturdays, the variation between the sales
0:46:59would be smaller.
0:47:00So what I mean is, it dawned on me today that we can get more accurate measurements of when
0:47:08we're going to run out of stock.
0:47:09If instead of running all of my analysis on a, what is the average day?
0:47:16Instead say, what is the average week?
0:47:19Because the variation between weeks should be much smaller.
0:47:24Because we're combining together the best sales day every time and the worst sales day
0:47:31every time.
0:47:32So this is what I'm saying.
0:47:33It's like, okay, I should redo that.
0:47:35Because there's just less variation between those two measurements.
0:47:40So in some sense, it's like our real data is actually weekly, even though you're
0:47:46entering in daily data.
0:47:48And so that's the thing that you can do in the spreadsheet is like have it filter out
0:47:51like, okay, before we run all the data analysis, just take the average number for the week,
0:47:57and then do everything else that's going to happen afterwards with that.
0:48:01So that's going to be the next upgrade to the spreadsheet, Mike.
0:48:04Weekly binning.
0:48:05That's what's happening there.
0:48:06But again, I would say too, I really love the spreadsheet.
0:48:09But I don't have a brain for this stuff.
0:48:12But I have been thinking recently, like, it's part of another reason why I think it was
0:48:16such a perfect partnership, because you understand this and I don't.
0:48:19And so like, you are bringing to the business this really important thing that I just would
0:48:25not be able to do.
0:48:26So I think you've totally reframed for me what problem I'm trying to solve a lot of
0:48:31times when I explain it, because my mental framing of this is not, you should trust me.
0:48:37It's like, well, that's ridiculous.
0:48:39Like the whole reason to make the spreadsheet is to not trust me.
0:48:41Right?
0:48:41To not be like, oh, Gray says we should buy some amount of stock and then you just do
0:48:47it.
0:48:47It's like, no, no, I want to show you.
0:48:49Here's where this is all coming from.
0:48:51But in a partnership, I think I can reframe this.
0:48:54Like, you can just trust me that I'm doing the best job on this kind of thing that I
0:48:59can in exactly the same way that I don't.
0:49:03So Mike, when you tell me a lot about what's happening with glue binding for particular
0:49:09notebooks.
0:49:10Oh, I know.
0:49:11I don't know what you're talking about half the time.
0:49:14Right.
0:49:14But it's the same thing.
0:49:17Like, I trust you to make an amazing notebook.
0:49:20That's your skill set.
0:49:22Maybe it's the same thing.
0:49:23Like I do ask some questions about what's happening, but I think, yeah, I think maybe
0:49:30that's similar.
0:49:31Like I'm just kind of probing your thought process on how it is you're putting a thing
0:49:36together.
0:49:36A lot of the time you kind of ask me like, why are we making that choice or why do you
0:49:41want it done this way?
0:49:42Like, what are the benefits of doing it this way?
0:49:44Does it feel nicer?
0:49:45Like that kind of stuff you need to ask me, which is helpful, right?
0:49:48Because then if I can explain it to you, that's good.
0:49:50If I can't explain it to you, then why am I making the decision?
0:49:53Yeah, yeah.
0:49:55I think we're a good partnership.
0:49:56I think so.
0:49:57I think that I have this with Relay too.
0:50:00Like if you can find someone who between the two of you, you can make a hole, then you're
0:50:06great.
0:50:07Because I think that's what it takes to run a business.
0:50:09You need good people around you because nobody can do everything.
0:50:15It's just not possible.
0:50:18And I think you are best off finding a group of people, whether it's two or three or four
0:50:23or more, who are all good at certain things and you put them together and you become better
0:50:30as a whole.
0:50:31Like, I think that's what's truly valuable.
0:50:35There is no such thing as an excellent all rounder.
0:50:38You can get someone who might be good at a bunch of things, but you would be able to
0:50:42get a set of individual people who are all individually better at each thing.
0:50:46That's what I believe.
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0:53:06So I just made a 100% year of the weekend focus decision.
0:53:12Yeah.
0:53:13Where in it I was like, oh, I'm super happy about the theme that I've chosen.
0:53:18So right now I actually think I'm in the busiest month of my year.
0:53:25Maybe with the exception of September because of podcastathon stuff, right?
0:53:29But for regular work this month, wild, right?
0:53:35So two episodes of Cortex, that's enough.
0:53:37Like put two episodes of Cortex in one month, that's enough for me.
0:53:43Let alone all of the other stuff that I'm doing and preparing for WWDC, right?
0:53:47So I have big episodes of my regular Apple focus shows where we turn both of our predictions
0:53:54episodes into games.
0:53:55They take a lot of work to do.
0:53:57They're really important to me.
0:53:58I love doing them, but it's big stuff, right?
0:54:00This is like trying and then trying to get ready for like a basically a two week trip.
0:54:04There's a lot going on right now.
0:54:06But I took a mini vacation in the middle of it.
0:54:09Which is on paper to me, like previous Mike, terrible idea.
0:54:14Like if you're that busy, would you take four days out of your week to go and join somebody
0:54:20on a vacation?
0:54:22Those are four days where you could be preparing more, where you could be editing, where you
0:54:27could be recording.
0:54:29We could have recorded this show last week rather than this week, which would have given
0:54:32me longer before we got to get it out.
0:54:34Like these are things where previous me on paper would have been like, no way.
0:54:40Take the time to work.
0:54:41The year of the weekend, Mike, is realizing the value in taking breaks.
0:54:47And what has ended up happening is taking a three to four day vacation in the middle
0:54:53of one of the busiest months in the year has put a split down the middle.
0:54:57So instead of being a really busy four weeks, it was busy two, busy two.
0:55:01And I was able to recharge in the middle of it.
0:55:04So friend of ours, friend to the world, underscore David Smith, the maker of Widgetsmith.
0:55:09He just celebrated a big birthday in Scotland and he invited me and Idina to come along
0:55:16and spend it with him as a family and friends.
0:55:18And so that was one of these things.
0:55:20I was like, that is an honor.
0:55:21You can't turn down something like that.
0:55:23If a friend asks you, I feel if it's somebody that you care about and they want you to join
0:55:27them on something that's important to them, you do everything you can to try and do it.
0:55:31And so I did it.
0:55:32And I was a couple of days into this wonderful time in the Scottish Highlands and this beautiful
0:55:37home of all these, this wonderful nature around me.
0:55:40And I was like, this was a good idea because it's allowed me to have this recharge to now
0:55:48this final stint before heading off to San Francisco for WWDC.
0:55:53Oh man.
0:55:55I feel like you've taken your theme very seriously.
0:55:58I don't know if I could have done that in your position.
0:56:00You're right.
0:56:01When you get a serious invitation, I think you're right.
0:56:03You have to take it seriously and say yes.
0:56:05But man, I would, I would have been very nervous about that.
0:56:11And I understand it.
0:56:12This doesn't fit with you right now.
0:56:13This is the exact opposite of the year of work.
0:56:16But what I have realized is that I'm just at a point where that kind of burning the
0:56:23candle at both ends is just not good for me right now.
0:56:26And it has been.
0:56:27And in the future, it will be again.
0:56:28I have no doubt about that, but I believe that our lives roll in these cycles and the
0:56:33cycle that I'm in right now demands of me to take better care of myself.
0:56:39So this was like a perfect example of that where I will now be in a couple of weeks getting
0:56:44ready to go on a plane and I'm going to feel nice and prepared and ready and fresh where
0:56:49I would have felt at my wits end, I think otherwise, if I would have been working solid
0:56:56all the way through.
0:56:57I mean, it does help that I am taking my weekends, but similarly, because we've got two episodes
0:57:03of cortex in a month, they are reduced weekend times a little bit because I do edit mostly
0:57:08on the weekends.
0:57:09So again, like having these few days is making sure I still make up for those days that I
0:57:14otherwise be losing, which is I've been very good at that.
0:57:17If I'm taking a work day on the weekend, I am still taking my weekdays.
0:57:21But this has been like a little life hack for me now where I've banked four days so
0:57:26I can now spend those weekend days throughout the rest of the month.
0:57:30Also, I saw something I've never seen before.
0:57:33The most incredible rainbow I have ever experienced.
0:57:37I'm sending you a couple of pictures of this rainbow.
0:57:39- In Scotland?
0:57:40- In Scotland.
0:57:41- Even better than Hawaii rainbows?
0:57:44I was like, you've been to Hawaii?
0:57:45- I have never been this close to a rainbow where I genuinely felt like I could see where
0:57:52it ended.
0:57:53And I also, I sent another picture, could see the entire arc of the rainbow, which again
0:58:01is like another thing I have never experienced before.
0:58:04- That's a really good one.
0:58:05- It's a good rainbow, right?
0:58:06- I guess I don't really think of Scotland as rainbow territory, but of course it's very
0:58:11misty so it's gotta be great rainbow territory.
0:58:13- Well, the weather was surprisingly incredible the entire time.
0:58:18Like nice and warm, just only a little bit windy, no rain.
0:58:23So we didn't get, I don't think we got the full Highland experience, but overall, excellent.
0:58:29And that rainbow, man, come on.
0:58:31- Does look like just past the tree line is a pot of gold.
0:58:37- It actually looks like it's on top of the house in this image because the rainbow is
0:58:42in front of those trees.
0:58:43You can see the colors of the rainbow is affecting the way those trees look.
0:58:46- This is very charming, Mike.
0:58:51- I had a great time and it was so helpful for me.
0:58:54And I think that like, this is a really, really good thing for me to consider in the future.
0:59:01- I was gonna ask, like, it sort of sounded crazy to me when I knew that you were going
0:59:04to do this, like right before and right in the middle of this really busy time, but it
0:59:10does seem to have worked out great for you.
0:59:11So I think if you're thinking that this was a good thing and you want to do it in the
0:59:18future, this is something you've got to lock into the calendar now because future Mike
0:59:25will have plenty of reasons why it's not a good time to take a break.
0:59:29But that's why I feel like current Mike needs to lock future Mike in, in a way, where it's
0:59:37hard to say no.
0:59:37Like, that's the favor that Underscore did for you here, which is, it was not just that,
0:59:42like, oh, he whisked you away to a magical rainbow land.
0:59:46It's that you also just like couldn't say no.
0:59:49And so like that makes the trip like, this is gonna happen.
0:59:51I'm gonna make it happen.
0:59:52- Yeah, I think what I would take away from this is like, if I have something like this
0:59:55going on and I will try and apply this for, say the podcast is on, is to, before like
1:00:02a huge trip like this, where I'm under a lot of pressure and there's a lot of expectation,
1:00:07maybe take a little short city break, go to London for the weekend, the weekend before,
1:00:11and just use it as an opportunity to just like switch off for a couple of days, you
1:00:16know, and like get out of home, right?
1:00:18Don't just spend the weekend at home, like go and just like be in a different environment
1:00:23and not have to think about work, try and get out of the work mode, get out of that
1:00:28mindset.
1:00:29I think that that is like a nice little addition to this like year of the weekend mentality
1:00:34of in these high intense scenarios, create a little special weekend in a way.
1:00:41So I think I'm gonna try and think about more about how that will be because when I,
1:00:46you know, some of these things, they can be so intense, like WWDC is gonna be intense.
1:00:52September will be super intense, you know, because again, it's like the podcast is on
1:00:55and the iPhone tend to line up with each other.
1:00:57It's just like two really important things.
1:01:00So trying to find ways to take these breaks, I think is gonna be a nice little addition
1:01:07and an important thing to ensure that the year of the weekend is being observed.
1:01:11This really is a beautiful rainbow.
1:01:13I'm just like leaving it on my screen.
1:01:16I've never seen one like that.
1:01:18Like I've seen some great rainbows in Hawaii, but that has got some strong colors.
1:01:23Like that's the thing about it is the colors are so strong.
1:01:26So in the first image that I sent you, I have boosted the color a bit to like really show
1:01:31it, but this is akin to how it looked to my eye when I saw it.
1:01:35But the thing is also you can like if you look at it, you've got the ROYGBIV colors,
1:01:40but you can see them start to repeat again, which is like really shows the strength of
1:01:45the rainbow, right?
1:01:46That like rainbows, I forget the exact details of this, but it's like every rainbow you're
1:01:51looking at is a multiple rainbow.
1:01:53It's just that the colors are too faint for you to be able to see, but it's like it's
1:01:57a repeated effect, but you can only ever see the one.
1:02:01But that's why it really catches my eye here of like, it must have been very strong in
1:02:05person to be able to see like immediately below the start of the pattern again.
1:02:11Very magical.
1:02:11And it was just one of those things where like 12 adults were turned into children because
1:02:17we're just like this thing.
1:02:19There's just this unbelievable because it really like seeing the end like that made
1:02:25it feel fake.
1:02:26Yeah.
1:02:27In a way like I've never experienced a rainbow that felt so physically close to me.
1:02:32It was kind of awesome.
1:02:34I'm going to imagine you and Underscore as the double rainbow across the sky guy taking
1:02:39a look at this in Scotland.
1:02:41I've been asking cortexans to submit questions over at cortexfeedback.com where they can
1:02:47submit Ask Cortex Questions for us with our fancy form.
1:02:50Jamie wrote in to ask, do you have any advice on how to keep a daily task list shorter?
1:02:57I'm thinking about not just the most important tasks, but also the one time tasks.
1:03:01At the moment, I end up having an entire walkthrough of my day, along with a wish list of nice
1:03:06to have things that I want to do.
1:03:08Overall, I'm looking at over 20 task items per day and it's just unrealistic that I'm
1:03:13going to get to them all.
1:03:14Oh, Jamie.
1:03:16So I think for all of us, it's just completely unavoidable that you always feel like my task
1:03:23list is way too long, basically, no matter what you're doing.
1:03:26So I think I would suggest two ideas here.
1:03:31One for me, the main idea, which I think I first talked about in my time management for
1:03:36teachers video, which is still up on my YouTube channel.
1:03:38Is it still there?
1:03:39Yeah, it's still there.
1:03:40It's still survived.
1:03:42Is it a public video?
1:03:44Yeah, it's a public video.
1:03:45Incredible.
1:03:45It's also very funny to see like, oh, it still hasn't hit a million views.
1:03:51It's like my oldest video.
1:03:53Any day now.
1:03:53Any day now.
1:03:55But there's an idea that I sort of talk about in there, which I want to like elaborate on
1:03:59a little bit, which is your to-do list is functionally infinite in many ways, but there's
1:04:05like a clear dividing line in my mind that's critical.
1:04:10That dividing line is the like, I can't go home today, or I can't finish the work day
1:04:18until these items are done.
1:04:20Like that's, that's the one really hard boundary for looking at to-do list items.
1:04:28Like, it just has to be mission critical that this gets done today.
1:04:32I cannot go home.
1:04:34And the thing that you can kind of like mentally use to try to identify those items is like,
1:04:39these are the things that I would stay late at work for or keep working longer to finish
1:04:46because they're just like absolutely vital.
1:04:49But of course, you don't want to just do those items.
1:04:53So a thing that I didn't mention in that old video, but I think is also useful for the
1:04:57like, what things have to be on the list is it's not just those, but it's also the
1:05:03tasks that you know save you a significant amount of time and stress the following day.
1:05:12So like, I think whenever I'm talking to people about to-do lists, it's like, those
1:05:17are the two things that I'm looking for, for like when someone's trying to put together,
1:05:22like, what am I going to do today?
1:05:23It's like absolutely mission critical and the stuff that is going to save you a significant
1:05:30amount of time and stress tomorrow, even if it doesn't have to happen today.
1:05:36And I don't know, for me, like again, in my old teaching job, the classic example of
1:05:41saving time and stress tomorrow for me was always like, if you need to make photocopies
1:05:47of anything for tomorrow's classes, don't wait until tomorrow because it's just always
1:05:52a nightmare, right?
1:05:53And like causes you these problems of like, oh, there's a big line at the copier or
1:05:58the copier isn't working, right?
1:05:59Like you can really screw yourself over by waiting until the last minute with something
1:06:03like that.
1:06:04I think those are like the two things that you really want to focus on.
1:06:09But for the rest of the list, I'm going to suggest a kind of mental reframing of what
1:06:16to-do lists are.
1:06:18And in order to do this, I'm going to use an example from one of my favorite things
1:06:25to pull examples from ever, Magic the Gathering.
1:06:28- Of course, this doesn't come up in a while.
1:06:31That's how you know, by the way, if we're doing a special episode or a regular episode,
1:06:35just great reference Magic the Gathering as a metaphor or not.
1:06:38- That might not be unfair.
1:06:40Yeah, that might not be unfair at all.
1:06:42Okay, so in Magic the Gathering, my absolute favorite mechanism of the game is something
1:06:50that most players consider quite banal and boring, but it is something
1:06:54called Scry.
1:06:56And Scry is the ability to look at the top cards of your deck and rearrange their order
1:07:05or put some of them on the bottom.
1:07:07And I love this so much in the game.
1:07:10And I love this as a concept that I think is just applicable everywhere.
1:07:15It's one of the very few words of the game that I like has so dug itself into my brain.
1:07:23I sometimes just use it in conversation without clarification and then feel real awkward when
1:07:29someone is like, "What the hell did you just say about like scrying your list?"
1:07:33Like, "Oh no, this is very embarrassing."
1:07:35But the thing about this is like the concept that it's trying to express here is in most
1:07:42games of Magic, you're never getting to the bottom of your deck.
1:07:45The thing that you're really concerned about is like, what is the order of the next
1:07:52two to five things that's going to happen?
1:07:55And I think people should just think about their to-do lists as a list of cards that
1:08:03they're scrying through.
1:08:04Your job is not to get through all of these to-do items.
1:08:07Your job is to arrange them in the correct order.
1:08:13And sometimes that means like, "Oh, you're looking at something and just like in Scry,
1:08:17you put a card on the bottom of the deck because you don't want it right now."
1:08:21It's like, you're going to take this to-do list item and you're going to put it at the
1:08:24bottom of the deck and probably you're going to die before you get to that to-do list item,
1:08:30right?
1:08:31But that's fine, right?
1:08:32Like that's just what life is.
1:08:34Like, I think you're doing life wrong if you're consistently getting to the bottom
1:08:41of your to-do list.
1:08:42- Damn.
1:08:43Oh, that's good.
1:08:45- There is something about that that is really interesting to me where I don't know if you're
1:08:50saying it this way, but like, if it's like an ambition thing, if you've done all of your
1:08:55to-do items, then you're not reaching for something else.
1:08:58- That's exactly the way I mean it is if your to-do list is empty, something about
1:09:04your life is wrong and it's probably that you're not reaching hard enough or you're
1:09:10just not thinking about the, just like the scope of things that you can actually do.
1:09:15So this might be like in a game of magic, the games always end and like most games, players
1:09:21still have cards in their deck.
1:09:23You know that like in an average game, you're only going to ever get through like at most,
1:09:28you're only going to see 40% of the cards in your deck in a normal game, but you still
1:09:34have more cards in the deck than that and it's just like, it's the same with life.
1:09:38- I would imagine you have some in your hand, right?
1:09:40It's like, oh, I had some plans here.
1:09:42Like I was going to do some cool stuff if it came around, but I just never got the chance.
1:09:46- Yeah, exactly.
1:09:47- I like this.
1:09:48This is a good way of thinking about it.
1:09:49- I feel very confident about this of like, people are framing this wrong and I used to
1:09:55frame this wrong.
1:09:56Feeling guilty that at the end of every day, I didn't complete my to-do list, but I just,
1:10:03I think that's totally wrong.
1:10:05Your actual job is like arranging the correct order of the next things that you want to
1:10:11work on and that means putting some things at the bottom of the list, which you're just
1:10:17never going to get to and that's fine.
1:10:20That's totally fine.
1:10:22In fact, it's way better than the alternative of having an empty to-do list.
1:10:27- Man, I love that.
1:10:29I really, I'm going to be thinking about that a lot.
1:10:31That's like a really good metaphor.
1:10:33Like it's not too dissimilar to how I am because I'm just realistic about like, I know
1:10:38I always have more on my to-do list and I have time to fit into a day, but I'm able
1:10:43to look at my list and I know what is like absolutely must be done and everything else
1:10:48is movable or like I can do a little bit of it today.
1:10:52I won't finish it.
1:10:53So I'll get it closer to the point where I can check it off.
1:10:55I don't feel guilty about there being things because I know I have come to accept that
1:11:02I never have a day where I complete every item on my to-do list.
1:11:07It just doesn't happen because I just know that there's always more to go if I want to
1:11:12find time for it and that works for me great.
1:11:14But I know, I just know by being able to look at things, what is the most important and
1:11:19sometimes I flag them, you know, like in to-do list, I can change the color of a thing if
1:11:23I need to be able to have something stand out to me, I can do that.
1:11:27But I do think it's a skill that you have to learn over time.
1:11:31There are some truths about the world you have to accept first and I think what you
1:11:35have perfectly encapsulated is one of those of like, it's realistically just not possible
1:11:40for you to do it all.
1:11:41Once you've accepted that, you can then start to better prioritize.
1:11:45Yeah.
1:11:45And I still want to say like, there's just a slightly different framing here, which is
1:11:49the like, it's not that you don't feel guilty for not having completed the thing.
1:11:54No, no, no.
1:11:55This is the way it should be.
1:11:57Like you should end every day with more things on your to-do list than you were able to do.
1:12:04The real question is, did you order things properly for the day?
1:12:09Not, did you get everything done for the day?
1:12:11[BEEP]
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1:14:27Jens asks, Apple is rumored to be working on a journaling app.
1:14:32Have you ever considered making your own digital journaling app?
1:14:36Have we, Mike?
1:14:37We'd be doing a lot of work with the word "considered".
1:14:42So let me just, I will reference this by saying there is a suggestion that Apple is going
1:14:46to be making a brand new app, which will be journaling focused.
1:14:49It will prompt you to write down things in the day, but also like collect up information
1:14:54about where you've been and who you've been with and like pre-populate some of that stuff.
1:14:58It's an interesting idea, like I actually like it as an idea for a journaling app.
1:15:02Although I do have some questions about like, will anybody else be able to use this information
1:15:08that Apple's putting into their own journaling app?
1:15:11But we'll see about that one.
1:15:13And so I'm super intrigued to see what that's all about.
1:15:15In regards to making a theme system journal app, no.
1:15:19Right?
1:15:20Like, I mean, have we considered it in a sense of making a decision on it?
1:15:24Yes.
1:15:26And the decision is we're not interested in doing it.
1:15:29Yeah, we've discussed it, but I think every discussion has been a rather unambiguous no.
1:15:36That this just doesn't make sense for us to do in this company as a project for a whole bunch of reasons.
1:15:44The main one for me personally is I just think that this stuff is better when you are making
1:15:49an intentional decision to sit down with a set of things, a pen and a notepad or a book or a journal of some kind.
1:15:57Like get your phone away from you and sit and write down how you're feeling, what you're thinking about.
1:16:03Like, I think that that is important and there's like, honestly, for me, the act of doing that thing
1:16:11is part of what is important about doing it anyway, that you are choosing to sit down and do this thing.
1:16:18Where I feel like if my phone is sending me a notification to remind me to write in a journal
1:16:24and then I tap that and I write in my journal and press like set, like it just feels like any
1:16:29thing that I have on my phone.
1:16:31I have a daily to do task to write in my journal, but that doesn't then mean that I open GoodNotes
1:16:38and start writing with the Apple Pencil.
1:16:41Like, I've never done that.
1:16:42I like to be able to sit down with this item that I care about, that I look after,
1:16:48that it's mine and that I can see it's got my handwriting in it and it's filled up at the end.
1:16:52I think that that is an important practice, like a thing to do.
1:16:57So that is one of the reasons.
1:16:59The other is just, have you heard about the economics of the App Store?
1:17:03- Yeah.
1:17:03- It would take a lot of time and money to make an app which has a high enough quality
1:17:10that we will put our name on.
1:17:11This is similar to the physical product stuff, right?
1:17:14Me and you are going to have an app that's Cortex brand.
1:17:17It's got to be really good that we would be happy with it.
1:17:21So that's going to be expensive to make.
1:17:22And then like trying to run that as a business, I don't know if I want to do that, to be honest.
1:17:31I feel confident in being able to work with people to produce these products that we have.
1:17:36Making an app to a high quality just feels like a completely different thing.
1:17:41But also is not a thing that I particularly want to put my energy into because it would feel
1:17:49like there's no good way of saying this without me sounding like, look at this guy.
1:17:55But it would feel like it wasn't true to what I believe for the theme system.
1:18:01I believe it is best used when using our journal or another notebook and thinking in this way.
1:18:12I have a yearly theme and every day I'm going to sit and write in my thing that is focused
1:18:18around my theme and it's going to help guide me because I'm taking the intentional time every day
1:18:23to think about it and just write down how I'm feeling, how I'm getting on.
1:18:26I think that that is important and I think the act of writing it down is the important part
1:18:32by sitting and making that intention rather than just being like, let me open my app.
1:18:37I don't know.
1:18:38I can imagine so many people are listening to me and they don't see a difference.
1:18:42That's fine.
1:18:43But I feel this way and I'm part of the decision making of the things that we're doing.
1:18:50Yeah, and I back you on this.
1:18:52I agree there's a lot of problems with the economics of this.
1:18:56Again, largely stemming from how would the two of us want this to be done.
1:19:03It's not a question of like, is it possible to make an app that is vaguely this?
1:19:08It's a question of making it the way that we would want to be, which is very different.
1:19:15But I do also agree with you that I think behavior change is really hard for people.
1:19:21It's especially difficult in absence of signals to yourself that you're really trying to
1:19:28do something differently.
1:19:32And for most people in the current modern world, having a notebook that is a physical object,
1:19:41I think is a real signal to their own brain to pay attention that something is different here.
1:19:46Sometimes you try to think about like, who are you making products for?
1:19:51And like, who are you trying to help with things?
1:19:53And I sometimes imagine a kind of customer that I can easily imagine as like a younger
1:19:59version of myself as well, like someone who is like really tech oriented and spends a
1:20:07lot of time around electronics, like just like I did, but is also dissatisfied with
1:20:13life in various ways and is having a hard time like changing themselves.
1:20:18And to buy a physical notebook, which itself acts as a physical reminder in your real life
1:20:27space about something that you're trying to do, I think it really shows your brain like,
1:20:32this is different from all of the other things in your environment.
1:20:36Take it seriously.
1:20:37And so I think for that kind of customer, the fact that it is a physical object is much
1:20:44more helpful to them in terms of enacting actual change.
1:20:48And that I can kind of imagine that selling an app, even if it is profitable, might be
1:20:56a disservice to that exact kind of customer because it would be less helpful to them because
1:21:03it is less distinct.
1:21:04And like, something needs to be different is the whole thing about why you might be
1:21:10buying this, which is why it helps that it's a physical product.
1:21:14So I think we're in agreement.
1:21:16No app of the theme system.
1:21:18And we sell the theme system journal, use any notebook you like.
1:21:21We're not using this as a time to try and sell you on it.
1:21:23Like watch Grey's video, he explains it.
1:21:26But like that is an important part to the two of us.
1:21:28Yeah.
1:21:28And that's also why like, I've talked about that.
1:21:31We've talked about that.
1:21:32We obviously sell a notebook, but I like, I don't know.
1:21:36I don't want to get all cheesy here, but I really do feel it.
1:21:39Like I feel very strongly about wanting to try and help people to be happier and to live
1:21:49more satisfied lives because I know I could have had a really bad time in life.
1:21:55And these kinds of things, if you catch someone at the right time with them are literally
1:22:02life-changing.
1:22:03It's important to me that people try this kind of stuff.
1:22:06Obviously we want to sell notebooks, but I care a lot more that someone who needs it
1:22:11like gives this a try and maybe it's helpful to them and you can just do it on anything.
1:22:15But not an app.
1:22:22Ian asks, a fairy or member of the appropriate government agency grants you an extra employee
1:22:29at no cost to you that has whatever skillset you need.
1:22:33What part of what you do now would you offload to them and why?
1:22:38Ooh.
1:22:39What would you say to this?
1:22:43So this is the key of why like it's a fairy.
1:22:47Okay.
1:22:48Cause it's like there's magic involved.
1:22:50There's magic involved.
1:22:51Right.
1:22:51Okay.
1:22:52What I would want is someone who could help me with show production in like finding interesting
1:22:59stories to talk about, helping me think about and expand on certain topics.
1:23:04Like what's some interesting stuff that we could talk about.
1:23:07The reason we need a fairy for this is because this person needs to think and work like me.
1:23:11Exactly.
1:23:12Because I wouldn't want to work with anyone like this if they didn't share my exact thinking.
1:23:18Which is why I have no actual desire to find a producer because I like the way that I think
1:23:24about topics for my shows.
1:23:26Would I like it if there were two of me?
1:23:29Great.
1:23:29Right.
1:23:29Other than that, this isn't a role that I would be looking to fill because I want to still be
1:23:35involved.
1:23:36But if there's someone who already thinks like me, then I'm already doing it.
1:23:39You know?
1:23:40That's why that's the fairy part.
1:23:41Yeah.
1:23:42If there's okay, if there's magic involved, this is in some sense an easier, but.
1:23:46Exactly.
1:23:46That's why I pick this question because there's magic involved.
1:23:50Right.
1:23:51So if there's magic involved, what I would want is a first draft script writer.
1:23:59That would be the thing that I would want.
1:24:00Right.
1:24:01See, there we go.
1:24:02You know, again, it's like, do the first part, but think like me.
1:24:06Yes, exactly.
1:24:07Exactly.
1:24:07Yeah.
1:24:08It's like, I mentioned this before, but like my skill is not writing.
1:24:11My skill is editing.
1:24:13And so getting to the point where there's the first, what I think of as readable draft is
1:24:19so much work and it's so hard.
1:24:22And the problem is like that first draft, it's the same thing you have.
1:24:27But like there's, there's a certain kind of quality that I'm looking for.
1:24:29And I know people are always like, oh, but you can hire writers.
1:24:34And it's like, look, I'm just going to say, like, I know YouTube channels who have brought
1:24:39on other writers.
1:24:40And even when they're reasonably good, it's like, but they're just never quite the same
1:24:46as the person who started the thing.
1:24:48And like, you can just feel channels getting a little bland or it's just like, it's just
1:24:55feels a little different.
1:24:56And very often it's like, ah, they brought on more writers.
1:24:59And it's like, it's just changed.
1:25:01So I think that's the thing that I would want most if there was like a magic employee, it
1:25:06would be the like, I'll give you, that's like, I'll keep doing the selection.
1:25:09Like I'll pick something, but if you can give me like a first draft that I can start editing
1:25:15from, that would be amazing.
1:25:17But that would also be basically magic.