00:00:32 ◼ ► I really enjoyed having you here, but I especially enjoyed recording in person last week.
00:00:39 ◼ ► I mean, it's great that we had an Ask Upgrade question about that because it got us to kind
00:00:49 ◼ ► I was there, you know, and I know I'm on camera, which I am every time, but it's like I'm on
00:00:55 ◼ ► And I'm looking kind of over a microphone at your iPad, which it was like, I felt a little
00:01:06 ◼ ► Well, secret is I saved that Ask Upgrade question until I knew what you were going to be.
00:02:04 ◼ ► So I can do that thing, which is, in my opinion, one of the greatest things that the Apple Watch
00:02:18 ◼ ► I just kind of like, with an elbow or a hand or whatever, I literally just give it a little,
00:02:38 ◼ ► I use the Apple Watch nightstand mode as my alarm when I need one, including when I'm traveling.
00:02:42 ◼ ► When I was in London, my Apple Watch was what I would set at night so that I would not,
00:03:08 ◼ ► I tried it for a while and then, and I tried it a little bit when they put the sleep score
00:03:26 ◼ ► I should really try to convince Lauren to wear her Apple Watch to bed and use that as her
00:03:31 ◼ ► alarm because her alarm goes off at 6.30 in the morning and I don't need to hear it because
00:03:36 ◼ ► But that's when her alarm goes off and it would be nice if it was silent, but it's, alas, it
00:03:54 ◼ ► But I'm not as bad as Victor in the Discord who says they have two old school digital alarm
00:04:03 ◼ ► So Victor, Victor needs a lot of assistance in the morning is what we've learned today.
00:04:11 ◼ ► I mean, they design products for people like that, where it's like the thing you've got
00:04:53 ◼ ► I'll just mention here, this is your last warning to buy upgrade merch for the holidays this year.
00:05:11 ◼ ► So yeah, check, check out the hoodies and the colors are, and there's some other stuff there too.
00:05:37 ◼ ► I ordered two Colors R's this time, and I ordered an upgrade pro, which I have not done before because I like colorful t-shirts.
00:06:06 ◼ ► But according to the people at Cotton Bureau, that t-shirt is basically only available in monochrome colors.
00:06:14 ◼ ► So I'm getting a, I think, dark gray Upgrade Pro t-shirt in long body so my body can be long.
00:06:43 ◼ ► Many people wrote in, Jason, to say that the $30 discount that we spoke about last week when you buy an iPhone in the U.S.
00:06:50 ◼ ► obviously doesn't apply if you're a customer of an MVNO network, so one of the smaller networks.
00:07:02 ◼ ► They're like, oh, it's all cheap down here on Mint Mobile or whatever, but then your iPhone costs $30 more.
00:07:08 ◼ ► Someone also wrote in to say that AT&T sometimes always charge a $35 activation fee, so they end up getting it back.
00:07:25 ◼ ► Like, T-Mobile, there's an ad for T-Mobile right now that's like, if you bring in your old phone or you switch to T-Mobile, I forget what the deal is, but on some circumstances, with some plans, they will give you an iPhone for free and an Apple Watch and an iPad.
00:07:47 ◼ ► So I guess what I'm saying is this is – the carriers know that this is their way to merchandise and get people on plans and get people to commit to certain plans at certain levels.
00:07:56 ◼ ► I think $7.99 is what Apple quotes and that it is the mainstream price for people on the three major carriers in the U.S., but it's absolutely true that a bunch of people don't pay that.
00:08:08 ◼ ► It's not as onerous as it was – look, this is a vestige of the under-contract price, right, which used to be a real thing, which is you can buy it unlocked or you can buy it under contract.
00:08:21 ◼ ► I can just buy a phone and say it's AT&T, and I don't need to agree to be on AT&T for a certain number of years, and I can unlock that phone whenever I want, and it's just not a big deal.
00:08:33 ◼ ► But this is a vestige of that, that if you're not part of the preferred set of carriers in the U.S., you pay more, and that's too bad.
00:08:44 ◼ ► Apple has announced that Major League Soccer is going to be available for all Apple TV subscribers at no extra cost.
00:08:57 ◼ ► It was basically a separate subscription you could get that wasn't Apple TV, or if you had Apple TV, you could get it for a discounted price, but you had to pay more to get all the games.
00:09:08 ◼ ► And it was very complicated, and they put some on Apple TV, and they put some that were free.
00:09:14 ◼ ► And I feel like the moment that they announced that F1 would just be on Apple TV was the moment where I thought, they got to do that with MLS, right?
00:09:23 ◼ ► And this is actually part of a larger thing where they renegotiated their contract with MLS.
00:09:46 ◼ ► And this, they're going to change so that they start in the summer and end in the spring like everybody else.
00:09:54 ◼ ► So that, I think, requires a change, especially since they're going to have to play like a mini season in order to align.
00:10:01 ◼ ► In 2027, they're going to play like a spring season, and then they're going to start their 2728 season, I think it is, that summer.
00:10:23 ◼ ► I don't think like for every MLS league pass that was sold, you know, a few dollars went to MLS, but maybe that's true.
00:10:40 ◼ ► The other thing is that Apple was, Apple had an opt-out in two years, I think, where Apple could just walk away from the deal.
00:10:51 ◼ ► And then the deal continued for another like five years beyond that or four years beyond that.
00:11:04 ◼ ► So, I've seen some people say this is Apple not being happy with MLS and wanting to walk away.
00:11:12 ◼ ► I think that this is Apple and MLS committing to be partners because the opt-out is gone, right?
00:11:23 ◼ ► And it means that MLS at a time when sports rights are going way up, MLS will be able to renegotiate and find, either renegotiate with Apple or find a new partner and put their rights up for grabs sooner, a few years, like two or three years sooner.
00:11:42 ◼ ► But for viewers, the great thing about this is, and I think this is so smart for so many reasons, like if you're even MLS curious and you're an Apple TV subscriber, you can try it out.
00:12:02 ◼ ► You had a note in our show doc, which is, so this probably means they're going to raise the price of Apple TV.
00:12:10 ◼ ► I feel like they're going to, I'm not sure that sports rights are a motivator here that much.
00:12:17 ◼ ► But, I mean, I think they're going to raise prices anyway because everybody's raising prices.
00:12:22 ◼ ► But I think they'll put the price up and we'll say, like at some point next year, look how much we give you now, right?
00:12:30 ◼ ► That's the argument is that what they're doing is they're pouring all of the stuff in there.
00:12:34 ◼ ► And I've heard from people who are like, oh, no, they're going to ruin Apple TV like they ruined cable because the sports rights fees are going to make everything cost more.
00:12:40 ◼ ► And it's like, well, yeah, but what they're trying to do here is make it appealing for more people.
00:12:44 ◼ ► So, you're going to get people who get Apple TV initially just for MLS or just for F1 and then will watch Severance or whatever and get into it that way.
00:12:59 ◼ ► And they're trying to build this thing that is a little more broad because it's not a very popular service right now.
00:13:11 ◼ ► And it's wild because it's like Severance, Ted Lasso, and then it's like The Office and Traitors.
00:13:18 ◼ ► And it's like two great tastes that are not that similar, but they taste great together by the bundle.
00:13:27 ◼ ► But again, Apple says that they're very happy with Apple TV, and I think that they are in terms of the content especially.
00:13:36 ◼ ► But I think their real challenge is just getting more people to try it and keep it as a subscription.
00:13:41 ◼ ► So I think this MLS deal is just another, it's not going to be a game changer, but it's another indication of their strategy that the F1 deal was also an indication of.
00:14:01 ◼ ► For whatever reason, it ended up being that whether F1 pushed it or Apple pushed it or whatever.
00:14:11 ◼ ► MLS, as you mentioned, and I'm sure that's why it seems like Apple may be given a little more in the renegotiation because they, I'm sure that Apple were more convinced about wanting to offer this to everyone with MLS getting a different deal.
00:14:27 ◼ ► They call out in the press release that 2026 is going to be the World Cup, which is in North America.
00:14:47 ◼ ► But yeah, I agree that always there's hope in the US and in North America that the World Cup will help.
00:14:53 ◼ ► I don't know if it, I don't know if the World Cup is going to help soccer in North America this time around, just because I feel like soccer in North America is doing pretty good now.
00:15:07 ◼ ► But I think it's actually, I think soccer has come a long way in North America and the interest in it.
00:15:25 ◼ ► And I think has really increased people's desire to want to watch women's football in America.
00:15:31 ◼ ► What I would say, though, is I think that the American soccer fandom is more international, right?
00:15:43 ◼ ► There are people who are fans of MLS, but there are a lot of people who are fans of European leagues.
00:15:55 ◼ ► And so I think that that's going to be interesting because I think World Cup in the US, men's World Cup, it's just a different experience.
00:16:15 ◼ ► They might watch it because the American team's in the final, but that's not going to happen.
00:16:25 ◼ ► Because Americans, I'll say this, even if Americans don't understand soccer, they understand winners, winning teams, being the best in the world.
00:16:36 ◼ ► It's funny, when I was in London, went to the Arsenal-Chelsea women's match at Emirates Stadium with my friend Simon, who lives right next to Emirates Stadium, the Arsenal Stadium, and is a Chelsea fan.
00:16:52 ◼ ► 50,000 people, which is more people than have ever seen a women's professional soccer match in the US.
00:17:06 ◼ ► But I was reminded, the Chelsea manager used to be, the current US women's manager was the Chelsea women's manager.
00:17:18 ◼ ► And I said, well, as much as people in the US think about soccer at all, I think everybody thinks it's logical that the US women's team would get the best women's soccer manager in the world.
00:17:27 ◼ ► Because that is, I mean, people really, and, you know, the US women haven't gotten worse, but they have had a lot of people retire and they have a new generation.
00:17:37 ◼ ► And the truth is that the rest of the world cares about women's soccer now in a way they didn't.
00:17:41 ◼ ► But you're right, the dynamic is just very different there than it is because the US men's team is not going to be.
00:17:52 ◼ ► But it's a, I think, unlike why it's a canny investment, F1 and MLS are canny investments for Apple because they get to own the whole thing.
00:18:01 ◼ ► And they are both perceived as being sports with growth potential in a way that a lot of sports maybe aren't with kind of large growth potential and that they're interested in it for that reason.
00:18:15 ◼ ► I wanted to, when I was at Heathrow, waiting to come home, which means that I've got a post on Six Colors that is timestamped 152 AM, which makes me, I'm delighted by that.
00:18:29 ◼ ► I just wanted to throw this out there, related, a lot of people linking to this interview, Eddie Q did with Screen International, which is like a French magazine, I think, I don't know.
00:18:51 ◼ ► And I point at the same thing and I say, see, this is what you say when you're going to do it, but you're not ready to announce it yet.
00:19:09 ◼ ► I don't want to say no forever is a thing you say when you will probably say yes sometime, right?
00:19:44 ◼ ► everybody realizes that they make way more money on the ad tier than they do on the ad-free tier.
00:19:53 ◼ ► Apple keeps raising the price of Apple TV, which gives them more room underneath to place an ad tier.
00:20:04 ◼ ► They are not very well viewed and offering a low-priced ad tier would be a way to get new people to watch Apple TV.
00:20:13 ◼ ► And my favorite, Apple has a, as we've discussed here, dedicated ad sales VP whose job it is to generate ad revenue everywhere Apple touches.
00:20:24 ◼ ► So, look, I have no doubt that these ads would be tasteful and limited and high quality, et cetera, et cetera, yada, yada, yada.
00:20:35 ◼ ► I can't conceive of a scenario where Apple goes years and years and years as literally the only streaming service to not offer an ad tier,
00:20:49 ◼ ► And I think it's good, you know, because if somebody wants to watch, especially the sports, because the sports will have ads in it, right?
00:21:45 ◼ ► It is funny that the sport, like, usually you'd say, like, oh, sports are perfect for ads.
00:22:14 ◼ ► And with all the pre-game and the post-game and all of that, they put ads, they stuff ads in there.
00:22:30 ◼ ► It's really, at the moment, right now, it's, like, particularly difficult for us to be able to sit down and, like, watch a show for an hour, like, uninterrupted.
00:23:02 ◼ ► A federal jury in California has awarded a victory to Massimo in their fight with Apple over the patent for blood oxygen readings on the Apple Watch.
00:23:11 ◼ ► This jury concluded that Apple infringed on Massimo's patent and has awarded them $634 million in damages.
00:23:21 ◼ ► This has got nothing to do with Apple, Massimo, and the International Trade Commission.
00:23:31 ◼ ► This is just kind of like Massimo going for damages, so they beat Apple here, but it doesn't have any real standing over whether the Apple Watch can have a blood oxygen sensor in it or not.
00:23:46 ◼ ► Because the patent that they've been, the patent that was in this case expired in 2022, but they've been able to claim damages for the time period of what, like 2015 to 2022, and they won this lawsuit.
00:23:58 ◼ ► So things continue, but if you've been seeing this headline and you're like, aha, it's over.
00:24:04 ◼ ► It's the thing you care about, which is blood oxygen sensor coming back to your Apple Watch.
00:24:21 ◼ ► I'll just point out $634 million or whatever is a lot of money to you and me and not to Apple.
00:24:35 ◼ ► I mean, this is why, maybe this is why they don't settle the dispute, is that Massimo thinks that they can rack up a billion, you know, billion, two billion in claims.
00:25:04 ◼ ► So go to giverelay.com to learn more, or you can just very easily go to getupgradeplus.com and use the code 2025Holidays at checkout, and you will get 20% of your first year of an annual plan.
00:25:19 ◼ ► So you will get a year of Upgrade Plus for $56 that will give you longer ad-free episodes of the show every week.
00:25:31 ◼ ► You won't hear us talk about Upgrade Plus anymore, like the fact that you should sign up for it.
00:25:41 ◼ ► Like, if you're hearing me say this right now, and we are an important part of your week, you know, you listen to us every Monday or every Tuesday, and you enjoy the show, do you think this episode is worth a dollar to you?
00:25:56 ◼ ► Your membership support continues to be more and more important to the way the show is able to be produced.
00:26:04 ◼ ► We are very lucky to have advertisers in the show, but we don't always, and it's not something that we can always rely on.
00:26:11 ◼ ► Things go up and down throughout the year, but what doesn't change is membership support, because people who become members, our membership partner member for, they tell us, like RelayFM, or RelayFM, Relay and RelayFM before, switch on, that we are among their lowest churn that they see across all of their partners, which means once people become members of Relay, they stay members of Relay.
00:26:39 ◼ ► If you really enjoy this show, and you want to support what we're doing, please sign up.
00:26:57 ◼ ► So if you agree with us, this is a show that you enjoy, I would expect that you'd be happy to pay the equivalent of $1 an episode.
00:27:05 ◼ ► So also, if you're the kind of person that has people asking them around the holidays, what would you like me to buy you?
00:28:00 ◼ ► You started your business to do what you're good at, not to spend hours calculating tax withholdings.
00:28:08 ◼ ► To take the stress out of payroll, benefits, and HR so you can focus on why you started your business in the first place.
00:28:49 ◼ ► So he uses Gusto for small businesses, the small businesses that he's a part of, and thinks it's fantastic.
00:29:08 ◼ ► So anything that can make your job run that little bit easier, your daily tasks run that little bit easier, that is a win in my book.
00:29:16 ◼ ► Try Gusto today at gusto.com slash upgrade and get three months free when you run your first payroll.
00:29:39 ◼ ► The Financial Times is reporting that discussions at Apple regarding Tim Cook's succession are accelerating,
00:29:51 ◼ ► They say it's unlikely that a new CEO would be named before the next earnings report in late January, which is very soon.
00:30:18 ◼ ► This is something that would expected to be done earlier than not in the year to lay the groundwork for Turner's taking on more responsibility over the course of 2026.
00:30:33 ◼ ► Everyone would know it was going to be him, so he would start to do all of the stuff that a CEO would do, and him and Tim would probably have a bit of a double act going on as the year continues.
00:30:47 ◼ ► John Gruber posits that this may be an intentional leak by Apple to start the ball rolling and get the word out there, because he expects that people who would know about this would not speak off the record about it, especially as the Financial Times lists talking to, quote, several people familiar with the matter.
00:31:10 ◼ ► Like, if you've got a lot of sources on this, who are these people that would know this?
00:31:27 ◼ ► This feels – like, first off, I want to step back and say I think it's stunning, because I really did think Tim Cook was going to hang around as CEO for maybe five years.
00:31:42 ◼ ► This is the testing the waters, seeing how the stock reacts, getting – nobody likes to be surprised.
00:31:48 ◼ ► So you put this out there, and it's like setting the narrative that sometime in 26, we will hear about it, but don't worry.
00:31:59 ◼ ► And in some ways, I feel like Mark Gurman has served that purpose by mentioning for a couple years John Ternus' name and that they were doing some succession planning.
00:32:09 ◼ ► And then this FT story comes out and says that this is going to happen, you know, not at the end of January or not until maybe the end of January or maybe even later.
00:32:19 ◼ ► And so it's like – it's stunning, I think, because I really did think it was going to last longer.
00:32:25 ◼ ► But I understand why they – if they're going to do this, they have chosen to do this in this way where they're leaking out the details.
00:32:38 ◼ ► And then I would imagine – look, Tim Cook took – Tim Cook had to be interim CEO a bunch, and then as Steve Jobs was very ill and not too far away from dying, Steve Jobs transferred to the CEO job to Tim Cook and then became the chairman very briefly.
00:32:57 ◼ ► I would imagine that – I would imagine that as seasoned as he is now, Tim Cook has some opinions about how that went and how ideally it would be done.
00:33:10 ◼ ► This is one of those cases where the board is – has to be deeply involved because it's the board that chooses who the CEO is going to be.
00:33:20 ◼ ► And so I think that this is – this is that plan that Mark Gurman's been writing about for a couple years, and it feels like they have pushed the button to begin the execution of the plan.
00:33:30 ◼ ► I expect, as I think a lot of people expect, that Tim Cook will probably be named executive chairman of the board or something like that.
00:33:44 ◼ ► Like, if you're going to do this, you know, do you really just want, like, a man as powerful and connected to world leaders as Tim Cook to just go home?
00:34:04 ◼ ► Like, there has to be many situations where Ternus and Cook are going around the world together, meeting with the premier.
00:34:19 ◼ ► And honestly, when Donald Trump says, I want to talk to Tim Apple, Tim Apple needs to get on the phone.
00:34:41 ◼ ► And they can split the – actually, this is a great way to do a transition, right, is you split the job.
00:34:47 ◼ ► And John Ternus wouldn't, if he's the CEO, wouldn't have to do 100% of the job because Tim Cook is still there doing more, like, super high-level diplomatic functions.
00:34:59 ◼ ► And I wonder if that – I mean, it would not surprise me if that is a big part of the conversation here is how to – the whole point is to do a transition that is not shocking.
00:35:09 ◼ ► And so to have him step into this role, like how Tim Cook was COO, right, like, he steps into this role.
00:35:21 ◼ ► And then that allows Tim Cook to sort of, like, gradually kind of fade away into the background.
00:35:43 ◼ ► Like, I think about Disney, Disney before Iger left and Disney now with Iger leaving again.
00:35:49 ◼ ► You end up in a situation where you end up with a lot of lieutenants who think they're owed it but aren't going to get it.
00:35:54 ◼ ► And then you're going to lose talent because those people are going to quit and go somewhere else.
00:35:58 ◼ ► So to have – there's an argument that if you're going to do a longer transition and you're going to keep Tim around on the board,
00:36:17 ◼ ► Like, you feel like you – like, if they're confident, if he's confident, like, I want it to be John,
00:36:41 ◼ ► There were definitely people – there were people who thought they were going to be the CEO and then the CEO just didn't retire and they left to do something else.
00:36:50 ◼ ► And then when the CEO was going to retire, they thought that they were going to be in the running for CEO.
00:37:04 ◼ ► So there's an argument to be made that once you know it's going to happen, it needs to happen, right?
00:37:12 ◼ ► I think I could get behind that argument, that, like, you can't say we've got it all planned.
00:37:17 ◼ ► It's a little like – this is going to be a bizarre reference, but, like, they signed – at some point, like, with five years to go or something, they signed a deal with Conan O'Brien at NBC where he would take over to The Tonight Show and Jay Leno would retire.
00:37:30 ◼ ► And then it gets five years later and they're like, but Jay Leno's ratings are still good.
00:37:34 ◼ ► And it was a disaster and things – and they ended up – basically, they ended up giving The Tonight Show to Conan O'Brien and a year later taking it away from him and settling and paying him off and having him leave.
00:37:49 ◼ ► But it's this idea – the point there is they did a multi-year succession plan, which is – it's just a bad idea.
00:37:56 ◼ ► Like, the last thing you could do is say, you, you're going to be in this job but not for five years.
00:38:12 ◼ ► Yeah, do a multi-year transition and then you start it with an overlap and then the outgoing person is still around but slowly letting go of things over time.
00:38:31 ◼ ► And just continues to be the – maybe turns like, you know, I don't want to do all the political stuff.
00:38:41 ◼ ► I don't want to completely let go but I don't want to be deciding what max we're doing anymore.
00:38:46 ◼ ► A lesson from the jobs transition to Cook, a lesson from that is every CEO – and we've talked about this – every CEO brings what they are good at and who they are.
00:39:03 ◼ ► I would argue that the job of the executive chairman who was the CEO for 15 years and has been at the company for 20 years is also defined by the person.
00:39:11 ◼ ► So, you don't – a rigid view here would be, well, I mean, he's got to do everything that Tim Cook does because he's going to be the CEO like Tim Cook.
00:39:22 ◼ ► This may be strategically – look, we should say it may be that Tim Cook has so much money and he's done and he's like, I'll give you a year and then I'm out and I'm just going to go sail around in the Mediterranean or whatever.
00:39:37 ◼ ► He seems like a very type A personality who cares about Apple and doesn't – can't conceive of not working.
00:39:54 ◼ ► He will coordinate strategy with the board, with me, and with everybody who works for him.
00:40:07 ◼ ► And then ultimately John Ternus to rely on for stuff that – and he had Johnny Ive at the beginning – to rely on for these things that were not in his area of expertise.
00:40:20 ◼ ► He could be a decision maker, but he had the lieutenants who knew the details that he didn't have to.
00:40:27 ◼ ► So I could see this being a really smart way of approaching it that keeps Tim Cook engaged at the level that Tim Cook needs to be engaged at.
00:40:35 ◼ ► In fact, you could argue that this is something that would not necessarily be and maybe shouldn't be a dramatic change where one day one guy's in charge and the next day another guy's in charge.
00:40:45 ◼ ► But instead, it's more like a continuum, a transition, where Ternus gets a new title, but Tim is still doing stuff.
00:40:54 ◼ ► And then over time, Ternus is building up his set of people, which are all coming from inside Apple because that's how they do it.
00:41:03 ◼ ► Somebody – I think Gurman pointed out, John Ternus has been at Apple like half his life.
00:41:24 ◼ ► I definitely – I'm surprised it happened so quick, but I think that that maybe suggests something, which is that this is not going to be so quick, actually.
00:41:33 ◼ ► And the point of doing it now is that if they wait five years, that transition time is going to be less, right?
00:41:42 ◼ ► And if Tim is 65, maybe he says, okay, if we want to do a five-year transition, let's do it now, right?
00:41:56 ◼ ► So why don't we start the disengagement now, but I still am going to give you five or 10 years on the board, and that's how we're going to do it.
00:42:03 ◼ ► So I'm stunned a little bit by it, but I agree with all of the people who read this as – to a high-level financial organization.
00:42:14 ◼ ► So it's Wall Street Journal or Financial Times – so in this case, it's the FT – to have this story with several people saying that this is going to happen.
00:42:21 ◼ ► Apple wants it to be known that this is going to happen, and they don't want everybody to be freaked out when it happens.
00:42:30 ◼ ► And this is how you – so we get two years of Mark Gurman saying it, then we get the FT saying it, and it allows all of Wall Street to process it, calm down, and then be ready.
00:42:42 ◼ ► And when they announce it, they'll be like, oh, yeah, I already – I already knew that was going to happen.
00:42:47 ◼ ► Just from a simple perspective, you know, like on Rumor Roundup, we're talking about similar publications a lot.
00:43:04 ◼ ► No, they are like the perfect place to talk to the people who are most likely to be upset about this happening.
00:43:13 ◼ ► And to talk to the board in order to convey this message, to the movers and shakers on the board of directors at Apple.
00:43:26 ◼ ► Moving on, Mark Gurman is reporting that Tesla is now looking to add CarPlay to its cars as a way to try and defend against the decline in sales and interest for the brand.
00:43:42 ◼ ► Yeah, so in the context of GM saying forget about it and Rivian never supporting it and Tesla has never supported it.
00:43:50 ◼ ► And Mark Gurman's report points out that there was a lot of bad blood between Apple and Tesla early on because Apple was poaching people from Tesla to work on their car project, which no longer exists.
00:44:07 ◼ ► But I think the real thing here is that there used to be a big EV rebate in America that was like a tax credit from the government, and the Trump administration killed that.
00:44:23 ◼ ► Elon Musk did a bunch of stuff, really turned off a lot of the public to him and his whole thing.
00:44:31 ◼ ► I don't know how many of those people are coming back, but I think some – I think there are people who care a lot who would never, ever consider a Tesla.
00:44:42 ◼ ► Like even if they're kind of negative on Elon Musk, I think that they're more reachable.
00:44:59 ◼ ► So I think all of that's going on, but the big thing is Tesla's product line is a disaster, right?
00:45:08 ◼ ► Like because Elon Musk has been focused – leaving his politics aside just for a second, he is so focused on literally everything else in the world.
00:45:26 ◼ ► And so like they were going to do an affordable Tesla, and he was like, no, don't build that.
00:45:59 ◼ ► The Cybertruck is selling 25 – has sold like 25,000, but they thought they were going to make 250,000 of them a year.
00:46:12 ◼ ► So they're a company with enormous problems of sale and a new deal for their CEO who gets a lot of stock options if the company does well, which it's not right now.
00:46:26 ◼ ► People who talk about Musk having a trillion dollars in stock from Tesla, he would have to completely turn around Tesla, a company that needs to be turned around because of him.
00:46:43 ◼ ► You find out that almost everybody who might even possibly consider buying an EV in the United States, like 80%, 90% of them, whatever the number is, consider car play a vital part of their decision-making process.
00:47:05 ◼ ► So I think ultimately – and look, this could not happen because a high-placed Tesla executive known for changing their mind on an ongoing basis could just –
00:47:17 ◼ ► I just – sources are telling me that there's somebody like that in the chain of command at Tesla could kill it at any moment.
00:47:24 ◼ ► But, like, you do this because you don't want to give people yet another reason not to buy your cars when your sales are about to go off a cliff because Tesla had pretty good results in sales in the third quarter because the EV rebate was going to end.
00:47:53 ◼ ► I think that car makers who are so in love with their own software that they think that it's more important than people's phones and the data that they have on their phones are delusional.
00:48:04 ◼ ► But just to put into perspective why they might do this, it's because they're kind of desperate.
00:48:09 ◼ ► And at this point, it's – you know, the last thing Tesla of all companies needs is another reason for people to not consider a Tesla right now.
00:48:22 ◼ ► There are a bunch of Tesla – one of my hobbies is reading a couple of Tesla websites that are super obsessed with Tesla because it's like Pravda-esque.
00:48:36 ◼ ► I'm not going to name names, but they're like – it's amazing as a person who does tech journalism to watch these sites try to bend and contort their coverage
00:48:48 ◼ ► to explain why what Tesla is doing and what Elon Musk said is totally amazing and is going to change the world even though it never happens.
00:48:55 ◼ ► And so they've spent years writing about why car play is a bad idea for Tesla because Tesla stuff is just so good.
00:49:13 ◼ ► And the answer is this deeply conflicted story where they're like, well, it might be okay.
00:49:20 ◼ ► And my favorite part of it is they photoshopped pictures of the Tesla console with like a giant car play in it.
00:49:33 ◼ ► But anyway, so they're losing their minds because they've just spent years explaining why you don't really want car play in your car.
00:49:48 ◼ ► I get the impression from listening to Marcus Brownlee on his podcast, especially talk about like Tesla is very, very focused on adding and removing access for people that are positive and negative about the company.
00:50:04 ◼ ► Like and like, you know, he was pointing out like, you know, when they're doing their robo taxi trials and stuff, think crazy things would happen in those cars.
00:50:19 ◼ ► Because those are the those are the fan YouTubers who are doing those things influencer things.
00:50:53 ◼ ► He he he's the one who does like Elon Musk says full self driving is right around the corner for 10th straight year.
00:51:01 ◼ ► Kind of like he knows he he he allows truth to come into the conversation, which is very nice.
00:51:08 ◼ ► I think he got blocked by Elon Musk on on Twitter because because he believes in in truth and saying things that are true.
00:51:23 ◼ ► If it comes to Tesla, that's just like adding Apple music and podcast to Tesla was good.
00:51:31 ◼ ► Giving people choice and letting them use their data from their smartphones in a convenient way does not take away from your software for your full self driving interface or your charging maps or whatever.
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00:53:42 ◼ ► Continuing with rumor roundup, the information is reporting that Apple is making some big changes to their plans for the next iPhone Air model after some disappointing sales.
00:53:54 ◼ ► So the information says that the plan had originally been for an updated model to debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro this year in September.
00:54:03 ◼ ► But that has now changed with the expectation that it'll debut later with the iPhone 18 in the spring of 2027.
00:54:13 ◼ ► And this is Mark Gurman's whole newsletter was about this, mostly rehashing things he's reported before, but with some new information.
00:54:23 ◼ ► He said he said, from what I've heard, the second generation Air hadn't actually been earmarked for next year in recent months.
00:54:32 ◼ ► The fact that Apple named the device iPhone Air rather than iPhone 17 Air signaled it didn't want to tie the product to an annual release schedule.
00:54:39 ◼ ► And he says, Apple developed the air believing it would make up six to eight percent of the new iPhone sales, I'm told.
00:54:44 ◼ ► Now, we there's some indication that maybe it is not that it's not doing six to eight percent, but we'll see how that goes.
00:54:52 ◼ ► But I think that's really interesting that it's very easy to say, oh, they've delayed this thing because it isn't selling well.
00:54:59 ◼ ► But Gurman says they already had delayed it because they want to slide it into that spring slot and that they didn't.
00:55:05 ◼ ► I think the fact that it's not named 17 was the real clincher of like, we don't know how often we're going to do this.
00:55:15 ◼ ► But but I think Gurman was like, it doesn't really make a lot of sense because all the compute is up in the bump.
00:55:21 ◼ ► And so to move like that would be a major redesign of the hardware as opposed to just a new chip, a two nanometer chip that's going to be more efficient and therefore extend the battery life on it, which seems to be like a more likely scenario for a second iPhone Air.
00:55:36 ◼ ► I mean, the information is saying that they will add an ultra wide camera, vapor chamber cooling, a larger battery, and it will be lighter.
00:55:52 ◼ ► And it's, you know, it's obviously year over year or be year over 18 months, I guess, will be the, you know, the way that it will work.
00:56:02 ◼ ► But from one unit to the next one, that that will be quite a lot of change for this device.
00:56:09 ◼ ► Basically, Gurman says, I'm told the main focus of the second air will just be to move it to the two nanometer chip rather than major structural changes, which should help the battery life, which is the biggest drawback.
00:56:19 ◼ ► He says adding a second rear camera is technically possible, but I find the idea strange.
00:56:25 ◼ ► Redoing that section just to add the least used iPhone camera seems like a lot of work for a phone that a few people are buying.
00:56:32 ◼ ► Um, I don't know the way it makes sense if he's reusing some pieces from the folding phone.
00:56:39 ◼ ► It may be the least chosen iPhone camera, but the ultra wide is used a lot in iPhone photography, because if you are close to something for macros, it automatically switches.
00:56:54 ◼ ► So like it is actually quite an important camera and Apple believe so, because it's what they put on the iPhone 18, right?
00:57:07 ◼ ► And I'm sure that if Apple felt that, that customers would most benefit from a telephoto, maybe they would put that on the, on the regular phone, but they put an ultra wide and the regular phone.
00:57:19 ◼ ► And so my expectation is it's used more than people would think because it, it sometimes will automatically switch to it rather than it being something people chose.
00:57:27 ◼ ► It's unattributed, but I sort of assume that somebody at Apple told German that it's the least used of the three cameras.
00:57:33 ◼ ► And that's why he said it, but he doesn't say according to Apple, he just throws it out there as if it is a fact.
00:57:38 ◼ ► So it may be, but I mean, I look, I've been doing this long enough that I look at that and I think that smells like something that I can't say where this came from.
00:57:54 ◼ ► I think as several people on our discord are pointing out, Apple hardware designs go like so far in advance.
00:58:00 ◼ ► Like there's no way, like there, I think what German's saying is, is probably true that there's an iPhone air two that was already in development.
00:58:16 ◼ ► But, you know, I think if there are six iPhones in the product line, which is where we're headed, having one of them be a perfectly nice six or eight percent of the market that's using a lot of the same technology that's in the folding phone.
00:58:51 ◼ ► I thought that we ended up having too much on this, but this was like not as well sourced as so many other stuff that we're talking about.
00:59:11 ◼ ► Because they said they increased production of some other models and they stopped production or they decreased production of that model, cut it back.
00:59:17 ◼ ► And that may just be that they thought it would do better than, I mean, if they thought it would do eight or nine percent and it's doing five percent, then that would explain it.
00:59:32 ◼ ► But then we had that report about it selling really well when it went on sale in China.
00:59:43 ◼ ► I've said this before, may sell better over the course of the year or 18 months than some other models because it'll get out there.
00:59:59 ◼ ► But I think that it's possible that it'll be a little more of a grower than some of the other models.
01:00:13 ◼ ► Also, Gurman, another piece that Gurman had that I thought was really interesting is he says, look, this product also exists because the Fold is coming.
01:00:23 ◼ ► And I know he said, like, Apple doesn't release a product that's just a tech demo, but what he said is, and he really believes this, so he's got people who are telling him this, that for Apple to get the supply chain capable of making the kinds of parts that are going to be required for Apple to make its folding phone,
01:00:41 ◼ ► Apple needed a product to prime the pump and to push those, you know, those production lines and the suppliers to make things like this.
01:00:57 ◼ ► I think that Apple would not ship a product it didn't believe in, but I could see Apple saying tactically, could we make a super thin phone as a way we get a super thin phone out of it?
01:01:18 ◼ ► I want to double back to something that we touched on just real quick a moment ago about, like, Apple plan their phones in advance, you know, years in advance is the timeline.
01:01:39 ◼ ► I absolutely also believe that Apple could make massive significant change to an iPhone line within a short period of time if they thought it was important enough.
01:01:48 ◼ ► I agree, but I think what I would say is what's important enough because they kept the mini around for two years and they kept the plus around for two years.
01:01:58 ◼ ► But like, you know, if they genuinely believe that adding a vapor chamber, a larger battery in the second camera, like just imagine that they do believe that that would sell more.
01:02:07 ◼ ► I could imagine that they could be, oh, give us an extra six months and we can make that completely different.
01:02:14 ◼ ► I could imagine that, but in a time when they're shipping their folding phone to then also put the, remember, they have to put the effort in after one cycle to redesign an entire phone that doesn't sell very well.
01:02:28 ◼ ► So it will sell probably, let's be honest, slightly better, but not take the world by storm is I'm skeptical.
01:02:35 ◼ ► I think my guess is that German knows that the second iPhone error is going to be like a very minor update and that what the information is seeing is what they're going to do down the road.
01:03:12 ◼ ► And I think that's the bottom line is like, that's why I keep saying we're about to enter an era.
01:03:21 ◼ ► So what he says is, Apple plans to unveil three high-end models, the 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max, and a foldable.
01:03:27 ◼ ► Then roughly six months later, it will roll out the 18, 18 E, and potentially a refreshed iPhone Air.
01:03:35 ◼ ► I expect the pattern to continue for years to come with Apple launching between five and six new models annually.
01:03:51 ◼ ► But if we, for a moment, ponder the idea that there are six iPhone models in the line, you know, some of them are going to be niche.
01:04:04 ◼ ► I mean, the Pro and the mainline and the Pro Max are always going to be the best sellers.
01:04:12 ◼ ► Like, what's the percentage of people that are going to spend $2,500 on a folding iPhone?
01:04:21 ◼ ► We could predict that they're going to be like, oh, the sales numbers for the $2,500 folding phone aren't very good.
01:04:52 ◼ ► So I'd say the fourth spot is cursed only in the sense that the other three phones are broad crowd pleasers.
01:05:07 ◼ ► If they fill a part of the product line that will appeal to people who might otherwise spend less money
01:05:28 ◼ ► But it is also testing out stuff that's technology that they will probably use in their 20th anniversary iPhone
01:05:39 ◼ ► And that's part of the reason you do that is you think that there's an upside down the road.
01:05:43 ◼ ► I think Apple just clearly thinks that there's an upside in selling 5 or 6 iPhone models instead of 3.
01:05:51 ◼ ► We mentioned last week in discussing Apple Silicon that Apple kind of seems to have ultimately abandoned the Mac Pro.
01:06:26 ◼ ► The sentiment internally is that the Mac Studio now represents both the present and future of Apple's professional desktop strategy.
01:07:06 ◼ ► If they're putting out a M5 Ultra on a Mac Studio and the Mac Pro isn't getting an update, they should take the Mac Pro off the price list.
01:07:15 ◼ ► And if they don't, it's because they have some client out there who's like, please, please, please, we still need to buy three of them a year.
01:07:33 ◼ ► I don't think there's enough of an audience for that kind of a product to merit the engineering work.
01:07:38 ◼ ► Like, could Apple theoretically build a new chip that was different and had different characteristics and was like, not like Apple Silicon in a lot of ways that we've come to know it so that they could make a better Mac Pro?
01:07:55 ◼ ► And that functionally, functionally, from a full market perspective, nobody cares about.
01:08:47 ◼ ► So I think we spoke about it when it was the anniversary of the announcement, because they
01:09:05 ◼ ► You've written something about your time where you, when you came to London, decided to not
01:09:12 ◼ ► Yeah, this is one of those things where I do, sometimes I do weird stuff and dumb stuff because
01:09:20 ◼ ► Like, this is my job, is to experience things and observe them and write about them and wonder
01:09:42 ◼ ► I'm like, I'm following a thread that I've had in the past when I've traveled with the iPad
01:10:04 ◼ ► Um, I was able to pretty much do everything I needed to do in London with the iPad Pro.
01:10:12 ◼ ► And if I didn't have your studio and I brought a microphone, I would have been able to do
01:10:18 ◼ ► Um, but like, so I feel like that's where the iPad Pro is right now is kind of, you can
01:10:52 ◼ ► Um, and there was a really good piece David Pierce wrote on the verge and we'll put in the
01:10:58 ◼ ► It's a brutal headline because it's a decade of unrealized potential, which is not entirely
01:11:04 ◼ ► But what I like about David Pierce's piece is that what he says is, okay, and this is how
01:11:35 ◼ ► Like the iPad pro should not have taken 10 years to get to the state that it's in now, but
01:12:09 ◼ ► It's not as capable, but it's really very good and very flexible, which is Federico Vettici's
01:12:28 ◼ ► And in fact, there's some things I can do frustratingly on the iPad that I can't do on the Mac.
01:12:32 ◼ ► Like our whole final cut camera, multicam recording session, which requires final cut pro for iPad.
01:13:04 ◼ ► I will grant you some of it is that, but a lot of it is I can't do that automation because
01:13:11 ◼ ► And there are command line apps that run like virtual machines, but you're not in the command
01:13:24 ◼ ► And I know that Federico has talked about this and I think he makes a really good point,
01:13:27 ◼ ► which is remember they made Safari desktop class browsing at some point, which made it better
01:13:35 ◼ ► However, you will never use Safari on the iPad and think you're using Safari on the Mac.
01:14:09 ◼ ► They're not walls that I hit, like the brick walls, but they're soft walls where I'm like,
01:14:47 ◼ ► That said, we had a whole thing in 4K HDR that I put together in your studio, exported in your
01:15:12 ◼ ► And every time I push the iPad in a way that I think it feels like it's only sort of slightly
01:15:22 ◼ ► And so that's where we are, I feel like, is a lot of the deal breakers are off of the iPad.
01:15:42 ◼ ► But now that we've gotten to the point where everything is functional, what are Apple's
01:15:55 ◼ ► Or what David Pierce says is Apple actually needs to start making this more Mac-like in a bunch
01:16:00 ◼ ► of ways, including, and he mentions, like, the terminal stuff and being able to run, you
01:16:05 ◼ ► know, stuff without finding a weird app that enables a thing in a virtual way that on the
01:16:19 ◼ ► But I think that's the question to be asked now, is that now that the iPad is pretty capable,
01:16:58 ◼ ► The problem, I think, lays on the fact that Apple has kind of made a bed for themselves
01:17:04 ◼ ► with developers and trying to convince people to do significant work to support everything
01:17:15 ◼ ► Well, so here, this is one of those things where if Apple, and I know Federico talked about
01:17:22 ◼ ► this, if Apple can't convince people to make really, really good iPad apps, especially if
01:17:31 ◼ ► And then there's some companies that just build a great web app and they don't even ship an app app.
01:17:52 ◼ ► and it's not just Apple's behavior toward developers, it's also developers just saying,
01:18:07 ◼ ► I should be able to run any web app that I can run on my Mac on my iPad at the same level
01:18:37 ◼ ► I did, it's funny, when we were at your bachelor party, I did a, that's the time that I generated
01:19:10 ◼ ► However, I was trying to generate a chart for a piece that I wrote at your studio, and I,
01:19:21 ◼ ► And I thought that was interesting, too, that there are still little edges where even apps
01:19:26 ◼ ► like numbers that are pretty good at supporting the iPad, beyond a certain point, they're like,
01:19:34 ◼ ► They're like, man, we're not going to even, because they've got a floating interface with
01:19:38 ◼ ► like tabs and things, and like you burrow deep enough down, and they're like, it doesn't go
01:19:44 ◼ ► So I, I mean, I think you're right, but I do, I do wonder if maybe that is a place going
01:20:01 ◼ ► I think it's also quite likely that, that now that we've reached this point, Apple's just
01:20:12 ◼ ► And maybe that's the, the end story of the iPad pro is it's fine in these certain areas
01:20:30 ◼ ► And, you know, I, I think, I think the question is what can Apple do to the value of the iPad
01:20:44 ◼ ► I feel like where we are right now is you really are just paying a lot of money for it to be
01:20:49 ◼ ► nicer than the iPad air, unless you're doing a lot of 4k HDR final cut pro exports, in which
01:20:53 ◼ ► case, yeah, you probably want the M5, although there'll probably be an M4 air pretty soon.
01:20:58 ◼ ► And I know that, and there's more memory and stuff like that, but like, I just, that's my
01:21:03 ◼ ► Is the iPad pro really still on a trajectory to be a professional tool or is it more just,
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01:23:01 ◼ ► Matthew writes in and says, I remember Mike recommending the app Super Agent to help with
01:23:09 ◼ ► Is that the recommendation that he still has or is there another app you would recommend?
01:23:29 ◼ ► You sign up for Super Agent and you're like, I want you to do this, this, this for me with
01:23:50 ◼ ► And it was funny to me when you were here and you were sitting over there in the corner of
01:24:12 ◼ ► Literally every site that I visit is like, hey, and they, and they've done the sneaky thing
01:24:28 ◼ ► Because it's doing whatever it's doing, inspecting the webpage to find that, to go in and set them
01:24:44 ◼ ► And like, you see it happening and just like window, window, window, and then it goes away.
01:25:04 ◼ ► And I remember there was like a lot of concern about the cookie pop-ups because the web team
01:25:09 ◼ ► worked like a few desks away and they were very, they were talking about cookies a lot.
01:25:29 ◼ ► And it has to capture your mouse to organize the menu bar and interrupts whatever you're doing.
01:26:06 ◼ ► For me, I am just now turning off what I don't want to see in the menu bar settings in system
01:26:11 ◼ ► settings, and I'm just trying to work with less and not use any system anymore because they
01:26:15 ◼ ► just, over time, it's like whack-a-mole, just trying to like deal with my menu bar preferences.
01:26:28 ◼ ► And you can try Vanilla, which is a hide menu bar free app from, I think that's the same
01:26:42 ◼ ► Yeah, this is the one where if you want to hide the icon, you need to use one of his other
01:26:51 ◼ ► But anyway, Vanilla is free, and then there's a pro update, and I think that's the same
01:27:05 ◼ ► Yeah, the problem is Hidden Bar is old, hasn't been updated in a while, and I don't know how
01:27:20 ◼ ► The problem is that when I'm just on the laptop configuration here, it's bad because there's
01:27:28 ◼ ► What I like about these utilities is you take a portion of your menu bar, and you kind of
01:27:38 ◼ ► But yes, the system lets you choose a lot of that stuff, so you can just choose to hide
01:27:48 ◼ ► Tim says, recently you discussed how Apple added small weights to the Vision Pro headband
01:27:55 ◼ ► Do you think they could eventually move the battery into the headband instead so they could
01:28:07 ◼ ► I think in the long run, if you can get the power right, and if there's a way to sort of
01:28:19 ◼ ► I mean, maybe, but getting these things lighter is really the thing you want to do, is get
01:28:25 ◼ ► And Apple choosing to do the inelegant thing of having a cord that comes off of the Vision
01:28:47 ◼ ► behind your head, I don't, yeah, I think it's just, it's a dream, it's a goal, but in the
01:29:02 ◼ ► Yeah, I think the dream for all VR headsets is to put the battery back there, because then
01:29:09 ◼ ► it's going to help the counterbalancing and you don't have to have an outboard battery.
01:29:37 ◼ ► So the headset and the strap, which includes the battery, the total weight is 440 grams.
01:29:43 ◼ ► Which is, I mean, I don't remember what the Vision Pro is, but I'm going to look now, but
01:29:52 ◼ ► And yeah, so the M5 model with the new head strap is 750 to 800 grams, according to a Google
01:30:09 ◼ ► You know, this is the thing, like, this is that funny thing of, well, the Vision Pro is going
01:30:15 ◼ ► to be nicer hardware, but also the Steam Frame is going to have all the games on it, where
01:30:22 ◼ ► So I think, you know, I think I would honestly get more use out of the Steam one than the
01:30:28 ◼ ► Vision Pro, like, because I'd be able to play games on it, which is what I really want from
01:30:41 ◼ ► And Steven writes in and says, Jason has mentioned his waterproof Bluetooth speaker for podcasts
01:30:58 ◼ ► like is the Tribit X Sound Go, which is cheap-ish, waterproof, battery lasts about a month, um, because
01:31:31 ◼ ► I take it with me wherever I go if there's room in my bag, because it's light and small and
01:31:36 ◼ ► sounds great, and, and, uh, it allows me to bring my little podcast noises with me when
01:31:49 ◼ ► You know, if I'm gonna listen to podcasts in the shower, the iPhone comes in the shower.
01:32:02 ◼ ► Well, those, those, the showers that I'm using when I travel tend not to let me do that.
01:32:18 ◼ ► And it dries out eventually, but like bringing, bringing a $35 shower speaker and it fits.
01:32:28 ◼ ► Like there, there are speakers that are more like, you know, like a soda can or whatever.
01:32:34 ◼ ► This is like, this looks like, like this is, this is like a little Sonos going on in there.
01:32:51 ◼ ► I mean, literally in London at the hotel, there are the two knobs on either side of the shower
01:33:05 ◼ ► So yeah, it, that it, it fits on the shelf, uh, that is the little crank window in my shower.
01:33:14 ◼ ► And I, I hope I put the little rope around the crank handle so that it, if it falls off,
01:33:26 ◼ ► I have not done a massive, you know, check, but I, I think it's a really nice, uh, for the
01:33:36 ◼ ► And I should probably just buy one and leave it at my mom's house for when I visit her.
01:33:55 ◼ ► Uh, you can go to getupgradeplus.com to sign up and you can get 20% off your first year for