The Talk Show

153: ‘Chock Full of Whimsy’, With Special Guest Ben Thompson

 

  I have a good eye i told you i've told you before we started the show I have a [TS]

  sodastream stories out of nowhere and I here so that it's psychoanalyze me I'm [TS]

  on your couch bend your your the the psychoanalyst so eat everything on texts [TS]

  that i was looking for a drink with recommendations for for the pop gasps [TS]

  and I decided to go with a sodastream and scotch in into separate classes I [TS]

  drink my Scotch straight to be clear longtime listeners of the show know that [TS]

  i'm i'm a firm believer that all you need to be successful and in today's [TS]

  world you need three things you need [TS]

  well actually maybe my three things have changed but I forget but right now i [TS]

  would say the three things you need is you need you need good coffee rust way [TS]

  to make coffee [TS]

  he's got to be real fussy about it like real good coffee [TS]

  you need highly carbonated water and the only way to get it it's in my opinion is [TS]

  that on your own [TS]

  sodastream machine so you can you can carbonate your own water and you need a [TS]

  clicky keyboard that's those are my three keys to success that if he asked [TS]

  me why during fireball and and this podcaster doing well it's that i have a [TS]

  funny way to make good coffee [TS]

  I've sodastream and I and super carbonated water and I have very clicky [TS]

  keyboard i have an apple extended keyboard to here's the problem the [TS]

  problem is about a week ago my current carbonation canister my soda stream ran [TS]

  attic of of co2 and so it's always so demoralizing that happens it's just like [TS]

  the little the little pit into the water [TS]

  well here's my m-my my strategy for years I mean years now has been that i [TS]

  have four canisters of co2 and when three get empty i go to there's a [TS]

  william sonoma crosstown right in center city philadelphia i take the three empty [TS]

  ones to to the williams-sonoma I exchange them you get like a discount [TS]

  when you give them the empties and you can buy new ones so i always buy 32 time [TS]

  but then i have my fourth that's in the canister so i don't have to [TS]

  no psych them out well here's the thing I I my thing ran out last week and I've [TS]

  had this thing for years and I went down to where I keep the empties down in our [TS]

  bottom floor but it's not really a basement sort of the bottom floor and [TS]

  they weren't there [TS]

  I don't know where I don't know where the hell my other ones are iike and I [TS]

  spent all day and i asked i asked Amy I i we looked at I looked everywhere [TS]

  I don't know where the hell I put my I don't know what happened at some point [TS]

  in the last few weeks or months i had either me or I suspect quite frankly my [TS]

  wife moved my my refill canisters and I don't know where the hell they are so I [TS]

  I couldn't make fizzy water and so I was stuck buying what i did is i started [TS]

  buying like pellegrino and and some perrier like I even forget like I'm so [TS]

  used to make my own i forget which I like better [TS]

  that's why do I by the I i have the 24 pack . costco that I keep for like car [TS]

  rides and and in case I run out [TS]

  yeah I think I like Perry better than Pellegrini I think Perry aids a little [TS]

  bit more bite to it but either way I but then I'd run out and I couldn't make [TS]

  more and I was dehydrated [TS]

  I mean but I was dehydrated because i cannot drink flatwater it's just awful [TS]

  and here the days are going by and I'm dehydrated and are miserable and I'm [TS]

  even when I have the stuff in the house even when I have like Perry or whatever [TS]

  i'm unhappy with it because it's nowhere near carbonated enough for my taste and [TS]

  then I realized just as literally yesterday I realized you know what I [TS]

  could just go to the goddamn william sonoma and buy a couple more canisters [TS]

  of the stuff and if and when I find the ones that are somewhere in my house i'll [TS]

  use them eventually too and I can still take even though i'll have more empty [TS]

  canisters then I need i'll just take them all but it doesn't [TS]

  why did it take me a week that's my question why did it take me a week to [TS]

  realize i can just go there and and by the goddamn refills that I need [TS]

  why did I make myself miserable for [TS]

  then I laughed because i have done the exact same thing I will get to so here [TS]

  you you'll be used by the department store i'll get to the park department [TS]

  store like all sure I want to get more canisters but forgot to bring it and I [TS]

  don't buy it and then height [TS]

  I don't have any car eating canisters it's totally illogical and I do the [TS]

  exact same thing i just i somehow convinced myself that I need the 141 [TS]

  exchange to to get the refills when I don't I don't I didn't need that I just [TS]

  went there with the one refill that I had because of the one that was you know [TS]

  that I just emptied and and it i will send the canisters know I know and my [TS]

  wife said you know as soon as you come home you're going to find that those [TS]

  canisters and and I said yeah he was waiting he was waiting for you to leave [TS]

  and then she was gonna smuggle them back to the self where they were so you would [TS]

  so often find them right well that seems like the Murphy's Law way that it would [TS]

  roll but it did not actually happen I'd i still have no idea where the hell that [TS]

  the canisters are if anybody knows where my extra canisters are please please [TS]

  tweet me or send me an email [TS]

  it occurs to me it does occur to me because it's it's like having a [TS]

  superpower having as many Twitter followers as I have and you know i think [TS]

  you're in the same boat [TS]

  it can be a superpower like on the last episode with the guy English when I was [TS]

  wondering what the hell you probably don't remember this because you don't [TS]

  think you're a Mac user back then but i was wondering about there was this [TS]

  chooser extension for the classic mac OS that if you had a local talk network if [TS]

  you ever if other people had this chooser extension you could effectively [TS]

  show you can like chat to them you could eat it if we both had it i could look [TS]

  your machine if I knew and I knew your max name I could send you a message so [TS]

  it was effectively like instant messaging over the local talk network [TS]

  back in the very early nineties and i could not remember the name of the [TS]

  chooser extension and googling for anything like pre-google is very [TS]

  difficult very difficult and and googling for this particular problem [TS]

  really and unless there's some better way to phrase it there's a common word [TS]

  involved yeah yeah it doesn't give you the answer and so I asked on Twitter and [TS]

  within like five minutes somebody was you know had the answer was called [TS]

  broadcast and as soon as they said broadcast I was like that's it and then [TS]

  somebody even posted screenshots of it which is amazing because if you type [TS]

  broadcast chooser extension classic mac OS and Google you still don't get the [TS]

  screenshots in there like image search [TS]

  it's it's literally on google ball even if you know the name of it but asking on [TS]

  Twitter got me the answer and i have to say it does occur it often occurs to me [TS]

  in situations like what i'm looking for the SodaStream of my house like I should [TS]

  ask Twitter and then I realized nobody [TS]

  twitter is going to be able to help me on this [TS]

  it is it is with me [TS]

  yeah it's um I yeah it's funny I've ever really that is kind of that today I was [TS]

  I was not about the mini microsoft remember that guy [TS]

  oh yeah it was great well it's great yeah he's kind of stopped right yet know [TS]

  it that's why i asked these silly i don't know why the guide to sell occur [TS]

  to me so i just threw it on Twitter what happened many microsoft and I heard from [TS]

  someone actually kind of off the record that said that they he left microsoft it [TS]

  easy enjoy was but I'm and of course the joke is you know cuz you want you know [TS]

  he piped down on the time seems nasty was always a joke that Steven Sinofsky [TS]

  was actually uh was actually me microsoft see he was very complimentary [TS]

  of sandusky in general and you know very anti very anti bomber arm so is actually [TS]

  this is it's not be jumping on the threat is like up you got me but I'm [TS]

  those but actually funny the funny sketches always was was a contract [TS]

  counter notions are our anonymous friend where he said he's now known as many [TS]

  amazon which is probably true given that he was that it wasn't microsoft but yeah [TS]

  that that's like the most inside of love of both the Seattle and tech jokes as [TS]

  you can get many was great [TS]

  yeah he used to and it was he [TS]

  it looks so beautiful too because he'd spell microsoft with this [TS]

  quote msft so is mi ni msft and somehow like that like eight character named it [TS]

  looked very balanced to me and and he was a guy for years who ran a blog where [TS]

  he and I think I don't think anybody disputes that he actually worked there [TS]

  I mean you can't he was anonymous obviously or pseudonymous would be a [TS]

  better way but he was like a pseudonymous apple or not Apple [TS]

  Microsoft long time Microsoft employee who was a critic of the late bomber era [TS]

  but he was a critical loved microsoft right like that that's what made it so [TS]

  compelling and saw saw tremendous potential there and I think in hindsight [TS]

  was largely proven correct that what he saw as folly you know and I think folly [TS]

  is a good way to put it turned out to be correct [TS]

  yeah had no absolutely adore the end and the other thing that was amazing about [TS]

  it too was he had these unbelievable comment threads and always post because [TS]

  everyone at Microsoft read it [TS]

  yeah and so he would have these thousand comment long posts that up like debating [TS]

  stuff going back and forth like it was you [TS]

  I mean he's slow down like me the site still there it's it's it's many msft dot [TS]

  blog spot.com but but I mean at the time especially when he's posting regularly [TS]

  like it was like the outlet for for like Microsoft inks and complaints and all [TS]

  that sort of stuff [TS]

  it was really something else yeah yeah let's imagine we have that originally [TS]

  had it so good at Apple doing that like how how how many black ops would they [TS]

  bring in to find out who the guy was or the gal was or whatever it might be I [TS]

  don't think I you know that's interesting i know that some people [TS]

  think that I i wonder if they would I mean my understanding i know that that [TS]

  that off the cuff of a lot of people seem to think that Apple does what would [TS]

  you call it counter espionage and you know but they don't that Apple does not [TS]

  I really am i understanding i mean i can't prove it but my understanding is [TS]

  that apple doesn't really have like anybody inside who like investigates [TS]

  leaks or anything like that that they don't and specifically they don't [TS]

  because they think that if it ever leaked that they have a team that [TS]

  investigates leaks it would be the wood so so bad PR why's that it would be [TS]

  worse than the actual leaks and that the only reason that so little tends to leak [TS]

  from apple is really really even the avian as your head current head count [TS]

  grows it's literally just the internal culture of people who work here don't [TS]

  leave [TS]

  yeah wait I'll tell you to and on the first day on the orientation like it [TS]

  like this orientation is very upbeat and all the great things like Apple and [TS]

  history of blah blah and then like this very stern looking security woman came [TS]

  in and like I I'm television or a bunch of interns when i was there so it's like [TS]

  we're all kind of young impressionable anyway but she put the holy fear of God [TS]

  in you like it was incredible it was it was it was delightful looking at it from [TS]

  the outside us today they're like oh crap i will never leaked anything [TS]

  everything it was it was it was awesome i remember her big example was ifo apple [TS]

  store I think like the old the old the old dog that that tracked apple stores [TS]

  and she was like yeah i can remember what the context was remember that blog [TS]

  was one of the examples she had but yeah it was something else but you know I [TS]

  agree obviously a horse presentations that could last that long it is [TS]

  absolutely a cultural cultural thing and yeah it's like they're remember going [TS]

  into an office and like my first couple days and someone like and I was kind of [TS]

  jarred that they didn't hold the door open for me but like that would that's [TS]

  just the way that just you don't you don't do that right because you don't [TS]

  know they don't have to imagine right right you don't know there's always is [TS]

  totally a thing [TS]

  yeah right you don't know that the guy behind you actually has the credentials [TS]

  to come in right you know that the guy right especially busy because that [TS]

  different different parts of the Apple will be [TS]

  you like specified by the battle even though you have an apple bad you can't [TS]

  necessarily get into all parts of apple right so it the guy who wrote iphone [TS]

  apple store you know he died recently [TS]

  yeah it's very very sad i just think about that one of his name was Gary [TS]

  Allan about putting in the show notes but it was a good site and and it's [TS]

  funny because a lot of people i noticed i mean i wasn't like it wasn't like you [TS]

  know first thing I do in the morning is check i have so apple store but you know [TS]

  in the racket that i'm in i obviously you know what come across it and it [TS]

  occurred to me at one point that boy fo apple store is really died down i wonder [TS]

  if the guy is sort of just lost his interest in it or it is you know now the [TS]

  stores have rolled out worldwide is it just not interesting and it turned out [TS]

  it was you know he was he was ill and I think he died and we look at last fall I [TS]

  just like yeah you know you know what's it's got some is within the site's down [TS]

  it's like it's a bummer it's just yeah back later yeah dude it is only I [TS]

  suddenly feel very mortal both because one were like we're both getting older [TS]

  too we're talking about death and three like making my living on the web and [TS]

  going to this guy's website that he poured his life into and there's nothing [TS]

  there is like not really bummed out i think he's written about it publicly but [TS]

  my pal and in a long time blogger at waxy Doric and ebay Oh has you know [TS]

  thought about this for a long time in years ago that that there should be some [TS]

  sort of you know his ideas to somehow set up some kind of a trust where people [TS]

  with websites can you know paper them [TS]

  yeah you'd somehow somehow set up a trust where and and some sort of and [TS]

  like a trusted organization where you would put you know trust them with the [TS]

  credentials for your website and so that you can you know with some sort of a [TS]

  modicum of of financial backing that to keep websites up in perpetuity after you [TS]

  know Bobby you know let's face it we're all gonna die eventually [TS]

  now that everything is good you know what's awesome is something like that [TS]

  that wordpress or whoever should think about like there's gonna be a button [TS]

  like export as HTML and like actually I'd work [TS]

  we're supposed to do this I'll talk to Matt about it like imagine being able to [TS]

  have it in a way where ever you can express eyes just HTML they're not [TS]

  rendering every time does not take any computer resources it's super [TS]

  lightweight and yet you put down it won't be that much honestly to be able [TS]

  to serve a static web page for for a very long time I think in the long run [TS]

  the biggest expense honestly would be the keeping the domain name registry [TS]

  uh yeah I think that's exactly and as you know even if it's only six seven [TS]

  bucks a year in the long run for us statically rendered version of daring [TS]

  fireball and especially as time goes on let's face it but you know let's just [TS]

  say a hundred years from now then it's not gonna be a lot of traffic on this [TS]

  rocky and you get their way [TS]

  this guy sounds a little narcissistic when you put it that way [TS]

  who's gonna be reading the other year 2100 let me see what sir TechRadar [TS]

  comments say about this right but at least but I would like to think that it [TS]

  will still be there for people to refer to and that somebody who you know who [TS]

  wants to refer to it that they can still point to the URL and it will still [TS]

  respond this way i'll put the the i think i said this last was your podcast [TS]

  to have a recurring donation setup for the internet archive and like it's [TS]

  something I would counsel everyone to do because that is such an unbelievable [TS]

  resources to close like we have yeah it is an end and they do they do like [TS]

  really important work and I use it a lot i use a lot for for my for researching [TS]

  stuff because stuff disappears all the time like you'll especially when you [TS]

  talk about the pretty cool stuff you're trying to find stuff back in the day you [TS]

  find that you find a link to you know at the end of the week is what you need [TS]

  that crap it's gone and then your internet archive is there so yeah I set [TS]

  it up just an automatic donation every single month because you need one [TS]

  it's awesome to it's important and three it's like super important to my work so [TS]

  yeah it is [TS]

  I've said this to people multiple times and it's one of those things ugh i'll [TS]

  get to someday but it's one of those things where if I had like an intern or [TS]

  an employee or something but it is astoundingly depressing how if you go [TS]

  back to like 2004 and $YEAR which was the first year i had [TS]

  the linked list feature on daring fireball where I'd link two things on a [TS]

  daily basis it's absolutely astounding how many of those links are 40 force at [TS]

  this point and Katya I've talked about this like his cock has been doing his [TS]

  thing since like $MONTH 1998 it if you go back to the earlier I mean that the [TS]

  longer you go back it's like almost exponential if you go back to the [TS]

  earlier year the earliest years of cocky it's it's even worse it's like the [TS]

  earlier the even just every year you go back it's worse and worse and worse it [TS]

  makes a difference if it's like 2005 vs 2003 vs 2001 I it's absolutely [TS]

  astounding how many links or 404 really it's depressing [TS]

  so my idea would be to hire somebody I to go back and for every dead link see [TS]

  if it's available at archive.org and if it is change the link to the archive . [TS]

  or version it was it it makes sense and also then it comes back to like well how [TS]

  is up how many people can actually click these links [TS]

  yeah but it's I just wanted to be right you know i mean it has nothing to do [TS]

  with making only know I find a satellite solely it's just that it just bothers me [TS]

  and they a I don't know it isn't you know in the way that my obsessions you [TS]

  know it's I know that it's the right thing to do and it doesn't matter where [TS]

  Itay bother it bothers you to know that there's a bunch of bad links and I'm you [TS]

  know in your stream right and I don't want any link on during fireball a virgo [TS]

  bad i really do I mean I mean I want everything that I've ever posted daring [TS]

  fireball to be a you know a valid URL in perpetuity long past you know when i'm [TS]

  dead [TS]

  I was gonna say in the ground i really doubt that I'm gonna put it happened so [TS]

  i wasn't sure what it is we have taken some more return i know i think we [TS]

  started with we started with sparkling water an hour in the ground [TS]

  well i was going to say and tell him in the ground this is why I hesitated there [TS]

  i was going to say in the ground and then I realized I really i don't want to [TS]

  be buried I think that's you know antiquated in a waste of waste of real [TS]

  estate and so I was going to say burned up but then I realized if I said burned [TS]

  up [TS]

  it's as though i'm predicting that I'm gonna die that's terrible fire which is [TS]

  you know I hopefully will not be the way that I got hopefully you'll be already [TS]

  dead before you enter the terrible fire exactly uh well with it [TS]

  what better segue into my first thanking my first sponsor you're lucky I just [TS]

  because you lots right into it so I i had to do the panic hit record so it i [TS]

  was gonna break its gonna break all you should always weirded out [TS]

  no i did i did i was only five seconds late don't worry you missed the what's [TS]

  up the very enthusiastic what's up our first sponsor is our good friends at [TS]

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  other than the fact that I'm a true believer and putting your long-term [TS]

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  I really it's just a great way to invest your money and it's super easy you just [TS]

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  it's no work and your money is in a in my opinion the safest sort of investment [TS]

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  investment so go too well front calm / the talk show we have a lot to talk [TS]

  about a good thing we wasted first half hour that sparkling water on his part of [TS]

  your nonsense we do multiple multiple topics are and I think all apple-related [TS]

  but well I want to talk to you about this stupid [TS]

  amazon echo that you talked me into buying oh that's right but we should [TS]

  talk about Apple Apple first and we shot it to both the apple iphone end to the [TS]

  UN um guys discussion on the services idea which I thought was actually really [TS]

  good I enjoyed it i just i had 111 addition to make well make it now let's [TS]

  all that first let's do that [TS]

  so last week show guy and I spent a long time talking about your recent piece on [TS]

  on apple and services and and their their organizational structure so tell [TS]

  me what you quit the only thing I would say is is when I say Apple services i'm [TS]

  talking I about much more than just iCloud and I think that that was a I did [TS]

  say that an article about i probably could have made the point more [TS]

  forcefully because people here apple services and they think I cloud like [TS]

  iCloud as it is a day I actually agree with you it's mostly fine i think the [TS]

  proper your password way too much for one uh but but when that when I told [TS]

  sources that includes things like the app story include like that is a service [TS]

  and I don't think it's run optimally like it and I think it's to apple [TS]

  actually chapels detriment [TS]

  it's things like Apple pay its things like home kit it's all these ancillary [TS]

  things and I think where they actually struggle the most many cases is placed [TS]

  with a foster equal [TS]

  systems like have to get merchants to adopt appal pay they need to they need [TS]

  to get device makers to to integrate with with home kit they need to make it [TS]

  so developers can build sustainable business on the app store like all those [TS]

  go into the services bucket and I think in general [TS]

  apple is not good at those and it's not just the timing issue it's the control [TS]

  issue like it was a big reason why apple sucks that stuff is they they have a [TS]

  very hard time of letting go of control and so that that was the one that you [TS]

  guys didn't talk about that part and actually think that's the more important [TS]

  part because that's the potential part that's what Apple like it's so easy to [TS]

  look at stuff that companies do poorly but often the bigger the greater damage [TS]

  is the stuff that's not done the advantages that aren't taking advantage [TS]

  of all the opportunities are taking advantage of and so that was just the [TS]

  one kind of missing piece I don't you think Apple pay as inventive don't you [TS]

  think apple pays an example of Apple getting it right where they have they've [TS]

  built this thing on top of that they're not requiring people to have an apple [TS]

  retailers to have a Apple pay proprietary sensor it's it's this thing [TS]

  that works you know with with anybody you know it works with android phones [TS]

  its it was already there like some retailers on day one could just say okay [TS]

  we're in [TS]

  and I think that the growth and Apple pay is actually pretty impressive [TS]

  I i sewed and I think Apple pay is actually a really interesting example to [TS]

  talk about and the reason is because first off because multiple components [TS]

  that that go into Apple pay so first off the there's the actual Hardware aspect [TS]

  of it which is brilliantly done it works really well there is a one downside [TS]

  which I personally I trigger Apple pay too often just in general day-to-day use [TS]

  which is kind of annoying especially since i haven't I want it's not really [TS]

  available here [TS]

  that part's awesome the and at which makes sense apple it's it's a beautiful [TS]

  example of Apple integrating all the different pieces that go into making [TS]

  that experience work flawlessly [TS]

  so the the hardware aspect is amazing too and the secure Enclave and all that [TS]

  sort of stuff to apple [TS]

  got the banks to heal very effectively and in general if you look at apple in [TS]

  any q's division and all that sort of stuff from a business development [TS]

  perspective they're actually usually pretty good at working with big [TS]

  established players they understand ago she understand how we're leverages and [TS]

  how to use it and things like that you know we've seen that with the label [TS]

  we've seen that with windows out the banks and so Apple but again I think [TS]

  when you get a bunch of apple executives and other companies in a room [TS]

  Apple feels like they can control that situation they do it well where I think [TS]

  Apple has really dropped the ball is in coming up with an effective means to get [TS]

  retailers on board the guess they've got to the big retailers and work with them [TS]

  again directly but where's the in where's the incentive program for small [TS]

  merchants to sign up [TS]

  where's the program to go and get information on Apple pay and supporting [TS]

  your store [TS]

  where's the program to get stickers for your door that says Apple pay supported [TS]

  here all that stuff is non-existent and I actually wrote about this in a update [TS]

  actually heard from multiple people who wanted to support apple pay because of [TS]

  the what you there was the liability shift last fall which is a huge [TS]

  opportunity for Apple to take advantage of and and they're like we we like what [TS]

  we couldn't get over apple there's nothing on the side about what to do [TS]

  that we bought a new we've got a new payment processor none of them said if [TS]

  they support apple pear not so we didn't know so apples not working with the [TS]

  manufacturers of these things and that's where Apple falls down because there is [TS]

  something you can't an apple representative can't go out and talk to [TS]

  every small and medium-sized businesses can talk to every merchant they probably [TS]

  should talk to every manufacturer payment terminals but they didn't [TS]

  apparently but but what you have to do is you have to create incentives you [TS]

  have to have like bonus programs you have to figure out ways that people can [TS]

  sign up seamlessly to integrate the rewards program or coupon or whatever it [TS]

  might be and that sort of stuff where it's it's self-serve apple doesn't do a [TS]

  good job with that stuff and I again you can see that with the app store i get [TS]

  like this the people that Apple deals with directly they do a good job and a [TS]

  partner well but when it comes to creating the conditions for success for [TS]

  people broadly that aren't necessarily gonna ever talk to apple one-on-one the [TS]

  company doesn't do a good job and and I think that's why Apple pay like there [TS]

  was this huge opportunity last year with this [TS]

  liability shift where basically what happened was it if you didn't have a [TS]

  chip readable terminal and someone had a chip card you are liable for any fraud [TS]

  and vice versa if you if you didn't have a chip card advantage of terminal then [TS]

  you're liable for fraud so so it was it means that was a great example of how [TS]

  incentives drive change they couldn't force people to upgrade their terminals [TS]

  but they could say if you don't you're gonna be held liable and so people would [TS]

  would pave themselves to to upgrade and apples that was a huge exam for Apple [TS]

  pay to be all over that and be advertising say these chips suck they [TS]

  take a long time to use it takes like 60 seconds or 30 seconds whatever process [TS]

  this is the chance [TS]

  everyone's gonna buy new ones Apple should have had a huge blitz they should [TS]

  have marketing targeted business owners and none of that happen [TS]

  absolutely none of it so you're saying even though the growth is great that [TS]

  could have been it could be accelerated if Apple were doing everything is hugely [TS]

  accelerated right right because apple pays not never going to reach its [TS]

  potential and less people have confidence that it will mostly be okay [TS]

  in the way we actually this is a time to the echo thing right the reason one [TS]

  reason i like Alexa much better than Cirie is I'm shocked when Alexa doesn't [TS]

  work and i'm pleasantly pleased when when serie does like there's a there's a [TS]

  line that is like where you assume it's going to work and Apple pay is a long [TS]

  ways away from that wine like in with what happens is even if you know [TS]

  mcdonald's accepted or walgreens accept it or whatever the places maybe you're [TS]

  not in the habit at all of using it because no one wants to walk up and look [TS]

  like an amoeba tones geeks will a lot of us were up a UH but normal people don't [TS]

  want to be in that awkward situation and so it's just frustrating because it's [TS]

  such a great product is so much potential because I mean it's the [TS]

  imagine Apple owning your wallet like and it's it need what opportunities are [TS]

  out there if they really established this and make it are very real thing and [TS]

  again that's my services criticism it's not that the stuff they do isn't as [TS]

  great as it could be [TS]

  it's not frankly but it's not that big a deal is probably mostly fine it's the [TS]

  opportunities that I believe they're missing [TS]

  I don't know about them but [TS]

  it's an interesting or i don't know i don't know i was i was appreciative that [TS]

  you didn't dismiss my proposal right so I'll take what I can get it what it was [TS]

  so what do you think you just said this or some something I link to this week or [TS]

  somebody held up [TS]

  I message as a it might have been the that group [TS]

  kookai link to said tim cook should be fired which is cropped up again like [TS]

  soon as its yeah he he's he's he's a he's a character to say the least [TS]

  wait who was it Oh left sets yeah that's it by our places i held up [TS]

  I message as like Apple dropping the ball because they're keeping it [TS]

  proprietary and I unless it is a kook and he's not the only person who said it [TS]

  but what to me I message is is a a very it under appreciated aspect of modern [TS]

  apple because they don't fit in it it is to me almost a a pure APPL service [TS]

  because nobody else would ever do anything like this because it wouldn't [TS]

  make sense for anybody else to do it is like overbought blackberry [TS]

  yeah i guess so i guess so i guess you're right i guess it is sort of a [TS]

  copy of BBM and that's that's that's fair you know and like but that that's a [TS]

  testament to to the point and like that's like the tension here right [TS]

  because I message is a beautiful example of Apple having a a vertical sort of [TS]

  model where their services differentiate their hardware like I message is a [TS]

  reason to have and use an iphone like I tried to switch to android when my arm [TS]

  was broken because the speech recognition is so much better and one of [TS]

  the things that made it very difficult was the lack of my message like it's a [TS]

  super great [TS]

  it's it's a super great locking it really is and yeah and it's so the know [TS]

  that that's why this whole [TS]

  services thing is so fraught because to date it has been about differentiating [TS]

  apples services and the question is in the long run like is that is that enough [TS]

  right that the thing that to me is underappreciated is that if you if you [TS]

  and I started messaging service that that had only in exactly the features [TS]

  that I message has end-to-end encryption I you you can put its you can send texts [TS]

  and you can embed images and that's it and we got as many users as I message [TS]

  has it would be a tremendously valuable company it you know it's on the scale of [TS]

  like what's happened what's the other one you know mall [TS]

  I'll line we draw in college right [TS]

  it's it or no now it is the number of you know in and whatever a buzzword [TS]

  metric you want to use like daily active users it it's huge [TS]

  I message is huge in terms of how many people send or receive an iMessage every [TS]

  day it would be tremendously valuable and it goes completely unto me [TS]

  unrecognized in people evaluating apple and maybe I don't think maybe it'll [TS]

  shouldn't maybe it maybe it shouldn't because you know the other ways that [TS]

  people value Apple there are intrinsically tied to I message exactly [TS]

  because people value Apple based on how many iphones they sell and the way I [TS]

  message is leveraged by apple right now is as a tool to sell more iphones and so [TS]

  it is properly valued like the only way it should be valued separately is if [TS]

  Apple explicitly starts to think about it as as a service in its own right in [TS]

  maybe you could do that was while retaining it being only on on iphones [TS]

  you may have we maybe have less potential then but but no III don't [TS]

  think it is undervalued people think oh they look at what's up to 18 billion we [TS]

  know how much as I measures words that we ended up with about like the stocks [TS]

  unfair baba it's not because Apple has strategy is such that [TS]

  it is a part of the iphone and the iphone is valued very highly apple is [TS]

  still the most valuable company in the world and it it leads me to what Apple [TS]

  has invented as end to me a fairly as its own metric I and I think it's only [TS]

  going back two or three quarters where they've started citing this number of I [TS]

  don't know they're calling it daily but actively used devices and their say [TS]

  they're saying that they would I think it's a billion write a building up that [TS]

  there's a billion Apple devices in active use which isn't it [TS]

  it in no other company may be other than samsung samsung I guess it would be an [TS]

  interesting I guess samsung could could act could use that figure and it would [TS]

  be interesting to especially considering that Samsung has things like [TS]

  refrigerators and washing machines and microwave oven now seriously it is why [TS]

  I'm laughing because I first sorry is it all aside side . but the this the it's [TS]

  not even about Sam's life I never tell this story but now I've got myself too [TS]

  far in their ways during the NCAA tournament you know you see the same [TS]

  commercial million times [TS]

  yeah and i think it was a couple years ago there's a commercial for the LG [TS]

  smartphone like the optimists or prime or whatever it's called that's not the [TS]

  right name but it's something like that and they would get the commercial would [TS]

  be all about the phone at the very end I think Kenny Smith was was the guy that [TS]

  was doing it was a great Anthony they would show him in front of the line up [TS]

  like water since dryers and refrigerators which the whole commercial [TS]

  was not about it all but they felt like they felt the need to squeeze that into [TS]

  this ad there's a lot of money for it cracked me up every single time I [TS]

  thought everything that's like been three years and still laughing about it [TS]

  er sorry that was totally totally off track [TS]

  well now that i think about it though I died I realized that there's a lot of [TS]

  companies you know Sony and in LG any of those companies that I guess could cite [TS]

  a lot of quote-unquote devices [TS]

  I guess what makes apples metric more interesting is that apples devices are [TS]

  actually [TS]

  things that you pay attention to you know they're real computers is what [TS]

  they're talking about it is and I honestly Apple talking about services [TS]

  and other services company is totally legitimate because it is a it is a real [TS]

  one they make real money [TS]

  the vast majority of it is from the app store and most from pay to play games [TS]

  because you know that's all that Apple has enabled from a business model [TS]

  perspective which I'm happy to rant and rave about but it is real money and and [TS]

  they're right and it is also real potential like if they actually did get [TS]

  serious about it like up you can do a lot with a billion devices and and [TS]

  that's it is nothing with the iCloud thing [TS]

  the reason why I don't like focusing on iCloud is because the implication of [TS]

  folks in iCloud is it should be on all devices like Apple music is on Android [TS]

  and stuff but what I think is the huge potential for apple is device specific [TS]

  services it is it is the things like Apple pay it is the things like home kit [TS]

  is the things like the watch like the watch the huge potential for the watch [TS]

  from my perspective is being the key to your life like literally the key your [TS]

  watch it open your door watch it or should I just start your car you're [TS]

  watching me your badge at work like your watch should be this movable piece of [TS]

  identification that operate in Apple Apple pay like the watch with apple pays [TS]

  amazing it you just have to find a place that has Apple pay you know I thought [TS]

  about that too that the wood the watch as your sort of key to your life and [TS]

  I've written about it too little way too little maybe even borderline not at all [TS]

  in terms of a the big picture question of which I've sort of been writing about [TS]

  recently is why did they do the what you know why did they do the why did they [TS]

  release the watch when they did with the features that it has you know should [TS]

  they have released a body obviously the watches it's significantly flawed it's [TS]

  the most flawed device apple has released in $YEAR and in modern history [TS]

  in my opinion [TS]

  and i recently I've been writing either you know I've positive and with it with [TS]

  a group with that grouper justjust despond hundred articles but could [TS]

  continue i I've posited though that Apple should have either waited longer [TS]

  to release the watch so that it would have been faster and that some of the [TS]

  features that don't work well would have worked better or cut those features that [TS]

  don't work well on the watch as we know it and released when they did but i do [TS]

  think lost in there is that one of the reasons that I think they wanted to get [TS]

  the watch out [TS]

  asu no sooner rather than later that flaws though it had is that idea though [TS]

  of the watch the long run [TS]

  being a sort of key to your life I do i do think there's tremendous potential [TS]

  there and I thought about things like you know touch ideas such an eye opener [TS]

  on on iOS devices but it's conspicuously absent on the mac and every time I have [TS]

  to type my password to unlock you know wake up my mac i think what a pain in [TS]

  the asses every single time and why you know if ever [TS]

  well people watch on the this should be locked yeah exactly and people a lot [TS]

  about it's like a frequently a emailed question to me is you know like it just [TS]

  with the recent update to the macbook one that you know [TS]

  hey how come they don't put a touch ID sensor on the macbook because I'm so [TS]

  used to on this and I tend to think that the answer isn't touch ID for the mac i [TS]

  tend to think the answer is like some sort of way of if you if you've got the [TS]

  watch on and you're within a very very close distance you know like like three [TS]

  inches of the mac that it just unlocks there are actually apps you can get that [TS]

  do this and they do it with the phone as well but they're a little clunky as [TS]

  anything kind of third parties yet has to be havin dinner party [TS]

  yeah I know that apps who and no the other thing with with the macbook is the [TS]

  touch ideas is intimately integrated with the secure Enclave on the already a [TS]

  serious chips so as long as there isn't in [TS]

  arm-based max I don't think there's going to be touch ID yeah that's it's [TS]

  probably true and I just I just tend to think that is the wrong form factor and [TS]

  the fact that it it it kind of makes sense from it has to it should be to be [TS]

  due to be done right it has to be platform wide that any mac or at least [TS]

  new mac could do it but touch ID to do it the exact same way would only work on [TS]

  macbooks because there's there's just no feasible way that that it [TS]

  well i guess not no feasible way but you'd have to have you know two haven't [TS]

  work on the imax and mac pro's remember the macro will make that you you would [TS]

  have to build it into the keyboard and it's you know and the idea that you [TS]

  could do it from the watch i guess if you could do from the watch you could do [TS]

  from the keyboard you know that it would be some kind of secure way to do it [TS]

  wirelessly but it just makes more sense to me that it would be the thing you [TS]

  know and like you said like it should start your car it could let you in your [TS]

  house if you have a smart door you know it's there's so many ways that it could [TS]

  be done for that and it would be a tremendous like it would really like [TS]

  start to remove so many questions about why are they building we know why did [TS]

  they make a device that you can wear you know on your wrist [TS]

  no I completely agree and I mean this has been my vision for the watch kind of [TS]

  from the beginning I actually thought they might not even have a screen at the [TS]

  meeting because i was still like to me this idea of being the key to your life [TS]

  and the notifications I mean the best feature of the watches the taptic engine [TS]

  and unless it fails but I mean it's like that's what makes it really great i was [TS]

  to wear regularly i would argue though that the taptic engine is the best in in [TS]

  theory it's the best feature but in practice it's not and and I think part [TS]

  of that is me being biased because i have my watches the stainless steel one [TS]

  and idea fire and I've worn the aluminum ones enough and it's you know I just the [TS]

  privilege of of getting review units and being able to try both because i realize [TS]

  most people why in the world would a normal person be able to wear both but I [TS]

  have an aluminum model here that I don't know it's you know it's a review unit [TS]

  from apple [TS]

  but it's eye-opening after a while how much better the taptic engine is on the [TS]

  aluminum models than the steel ones and I've even more [TS]

  I've tried it I've tried my son has the aluminum you know the sport model too [TS]

  and I've worn his just for it you know like an hour or so and just said like [TS]

  hey just sent me a text every couple minutes you know or send yourself a text [TS]

  you know because it would sink to his phone but so i would feel it on my wrist [TS]

  and it feels so much better and it's you know it's hot out of that how does it [TS]

  feel on the addition John I don't know I actually i've i've never even tried in [TS]

  addition honest even even reviewers don't even get to try to you know i have [TS]

  noticed though the apple the Apple store here in center city philadelphia used to [TS]

  be one of the stores that had the edition models in the display and you [TS]

  could buy the edition model here and just last week Amy and I were had a [TS]

  we're running errands and center stating we stopped in to the apple store and the [TS]

  edition models are gone in Philadelphia store interesting it's interesting [TS]

  yeah i noted a while ago that that there would seem to quietly be emphasizing the [TS]

  addition less and less and there's some pushback from a few people on Twitter [TS]

  who are saying no they're not you know and it's still there it's just they're [TS]

  just putting in it you know they just rearrange it is not really less emphasis [TS]

  but there's no doubt in my mind that they're just quietly you know it I know [TS]

  that quietly is often overused like finally when talking about Apple you [TS]

  know Apple quietly you know blood and it's you know not really any less or [TS]

  more quiet than anything else it's just that they're not trumpeting it but it's [TS]

  nowhere on i'm on the front page of the watch page and there is not an addition [TS]

  on here and not like 15 watches on your now it's this there but to me the way [TS]

  that they're backing away from the edition model watches really is sort of [TS]

  a quiet like you know let's start pretending like this doesn't exist and [TS]

  to me the new the new addition [TS]

  is the Hermes yep models of the watch that's the and you know like the the [TS]

  stainless steel link bracelets you know that the the luxury version of the watch [TS]

  are the ones that cost thousands of 2,000 not five to twenty thousand yeah I [TS]

  think it'll be interesting to if we look back on that addition sort of series [TS]

  I we had so much fun to speculate about that i would cost a pretty sure we'd all [TS]

  like yeah the whole time I'm looking at the whole kind nature there's nothing [TS]

  about him at all [TS]

  yep and and yeah if we look back at this sort of a a a kind of hubristic moment [TS]

  to be honest I mean we're going to sell a a twenty-thousand-dollar watch because [TS]

  because we can and we're and we're gonna show it at these you know fashion [TS]

  boutiques and all sorted often you know it into lots of people's credit there [TS]

  was a significant sector of of the sort of Apple you know world that felt very [TS]

  uncomfortable with that uh you know more so than i did to be frank and and maybe [TS]

  there was something really to that has fascinating way for your way we have [TS]

  this discussion I think they like the whole andy warhol coke thing right now [TS]

  and yes the function of an addition was the same as the function of a sport but [TS]

  just the idea because what made what makes the iPhone so powerful as a [TS]

  consumer product there's lots of things about to make a powerful but the best [TS]

  phone in the world has an entry price of 650 dollars and while that is massively [TS]

  more expensive than the cheapest android you can get 50 bucks on an absolute [TS]

  basis it's just not that much money and like it [TS]

  whereas cars you see all the iphones the BMW cars will sure but on an absolute [TS]

  basis of bmw's what minimum 35,000 want something you know if you want a real [TS]

  BMW it's it's it's a lot more than that like just absolute numbers matter and an [TS]

  absolute basis the iphone has never been that expensive on a percentage but on a [TS]

  relative basis yes it is absolutely expensive but and that is something [TS]

  that's cool [TS]

  42 Apple you can have the best phone in the world for relatively to the grand [TS]

  scheme of luxury goods not that much money i forget what year it was but it [TS]

  may be but it's probably the last year and went to South by Southwest and so [TS]

  that's probably like twenty ten or maybe it was even 2011 but somewhere around [TS]

  there [TS]

  the last year I went to South by Southwest and in austin and me and Jim [TS]

  quad all and Michael op and a few other people went to dinner at $TIME at a [TS]

  steakhouse and as we were leaving we were like waiting in the entry area in [TS]

  like sort of way of the the restaurant to leave and we saw by him standing by [TS]

  himself waiting i guess to go in it seemed it very soon seemed like he was [TS]

  waiting to to meet his party we saw Michael Dell and it was like holy shit [TS]

  that's Michael Dell you know there's a billionaire and he was on his phone and [TS]

  I don't know what kind of phone he was using but the thought just popped into [TS]

  my head he's a billionaire and I have a better phone than he does it I don't it [TS]

  was such a weird but it was like holy shit there's Michael Dell Wow [TS]

  and then I because he was on his phone and it was clearly some sort of you know [TS]

  I don't know what I don't know if it wasn't someone iphone i was not an [TS]

  iphone and I realize because it was not an iphone whatever it was [TS]

  he's a billionaire but i have a better phone than he does and it was like such [TS]

  a weird spot and it is that sort of egalitarians thing that if you if you [TS]

  take the addition out of the Apple watch lineup and just look at what they have [TS]

  without the addition it makes total sense to me as an apple product where it [TS]

  ranges from 2 99 too i think the most expensive is the Hermes stuff which is [TS]

  I'm looking $1,500 and take the cuff out and it's you know they think it's like [TS]

  1254 one of the Hermes models and that makes studies is the cheapest stainless [TS]

  steels like 450 something that Apple has always had kind of two levels and white [TS]

  house right they have a low in the high-end like it [TS]

  yeah it does make portraits but i really do think one of the fascinating you know [TS]

  that the whole like him some of the hand-wringing I i think the idea that [TS]

  the addition is folly and it's a sign that the company is distracted has merit [TS]

  I think that the hand-wringing over the difference between the sport aluminum [TS]

  sport models in the stainless steel models though is misguided because to me [TS]

  the range is reasonable but it's also fascinating to me that to me at a at a [TS]

  functional level the sport models are actually better because the taptic [TS]

  engine works better that the one thing that the stainless steel models have [TS]

  that the sport don't that is functionally better is that the the [TS]

  Sapphire cover for the display truly is scratch-proof like about mine i think [TS]

  and i think that i still think they look better too [TS]

  they do look better I think so too i do but i had a every other functional level [TS]

  because the the taptic engine works better that the sport models is actually [TS]

  a you know its superior and and so in terms of like the speed of the CPU and [TS]

  the resolution of the display etc etc it's all the same exactly the same you [TS]

  don't get you use you spend the extra money and all you're getting is the what [TS]

  you can touch that the materials are better [TS]

  so two observations one it's interesting that all the Hermes models are always [TS]

  stainless steel there's no tradition and 2 i've been clicking around the site for [TS]

  the last five minutes i cannot find the addition anywhere [TS]

  yeah I honestly cannot find it on the website yeah it's down the memory it's [TS]

  actually since I brought it up it's actually been at emphasized even less [TS]

  no I oh there is Washington you could only find it in the by tab in all the [TS]

  like product marketing tabs in rights and it's non-existent it's completely [TS]

  not really gone right and I that makes me think i would place a bet here today [TS]

  may fifth that when we see Apple watch to point out there is no addition model [TS]

  that its rights or and I don't maybe they'll come up with a name but its [TS]

  stainless steel and aluminum [TS]

  I think the addition thing is gone and i know for a fact i have heard from [TS]

  numerous at least several I wouldn't say numerous but several people within Apple [TS]

  that there was significant debate within the company at high levels as to whether [TS]

  edition should be a thing or not and that it was Johnny I've and you know [TS]

  anybody who's under him maybe you know I almost certainly mark Newsome who pushed [TS]

  for it and that there were others within the company who are like this is Rodino [TS]

  this is not a good idea you know but that was more or less a Johnny I've idea [TS]

  and that I think that all i mean obviously ultimately it came down to Tim [TS]

  Cook and I think ultimately and now I don't know this this isn't you know that [TS]

  the people i've talked to don't you know aren't the sort of people who would know [TS]

  what Tim Cook was thinking but my my guess is that it wasn't that Tim Cook [TS]

  wasn't so much that Tim Cook thought it was a good idea in and of itself but [TS]

  that Tim Cook wanted to make Johnny happy and that making Johnny happy was [TS]

  doing this edition thing and and there's something so telling about that and [TS]

  whether or not it may be right but is this idea that Apple is at the very top [TS]

  of the company still ruled by consensus and and the power of apples [TS]

  organizational structure which i wrote about is the way it kind of forces [TS]

  collaboration in groups have to depend on each other and there is no no [TS]

  dictator but that worked in part a lot of apples organization was Steve Jobs [TS]

  wanting to make an apple that could be his his instrument that he could play [TS]

  right like that would do his bidding and like there's the counterweight of the [TS]

  dictator at the top that's that's the way I friend is editor and I actually my [TS]

  eye I think this is it up university i came up with a backpack then like the [TS]

  best way to think about what jobs does that Apple's he's the editor or what did [TS]

  Apple was he is the editor-in-chief likey [TS]

  he didn't write the copy he didn't do the things he may have tweaked to [TS]

  headline to make it that much more gripping [TS]

  and he said no any any cut stuff in any any push the 14 he said all we should go [TS]

  work on this sort of thing and for all the good things that Tim Cook has done [TS]

  all the things that he's good at and to his credit he knows he's not that person [TS]

  he's not a product person so I think he's empowered Johnny for sure but [TS]

  johnny johnny has a distinct set of skills that are not I don't think as [TS]

  broad as jobs were and and I don't know that he has the connection to and the [TS]

  empathy for that the kind of common man and you see this i think some of the [TS]

  design decisions as well particular when it comes to the user interface that that [TS]

  jobs in either and you know you always hate to break out the you know they [TS]

  missed Steve sort of thing when it comes to the watch it comes to having the [TS]

  addition it comes to having these apps that were underpowered in this watchkit [TS]

  idea which was a disaster like the watch should have if the watch was nothing but [TS]

  the display and notifications like one it would be a great experience to what's [TS]

  the crystal doesn't have access to that is with that but implicit in that [TS]

  criticism is oh but of course they're coming soon right all the iphone watch [TS]

  the apps to write and it's such a different framing about the watch [TS]

  it's a framing of it's not what it is now but it has the potential to be like [TS]

  it's great now but it's gonna be even better as opposed to it kind of sucks [TS]

  now and it might be better in the future like just the tone of that is so [TS]

  fundamentally different [TS]

  I we've you know this is it's not just me you know but I feel like there's been [TS]

  a researcher I i think it's sort of the the roughly one-tenth of the watches [TS]

  one-year-old has sort of brought out a lot of you know big picture hey well [TS]

  let's take it let's relook at Apple watch commentary and you know I've [TS]

  certainly written a lot more about it recently then then I had for a while and [TS]

  i'm with you i really do think fund at a fundamental level that shipping with an [TS]

  SDK and [TS]

  appstore was a mistake or maybe not an SDK but that the sdk should not have [TS]

  been about quote-unquote apps it should have been an sdk for empowering smart [TS]

  notifications right or the ski stuff right [TS]

  the what the key stuff like being the key to your life [TS]

  oh yeah yeah yeah yeah I see what you mean I I somehow thought you were [TS]

  talking about like a keyboard [TS]

  yeah on but yeah like the way that you there are apps like a I have this great [TS]

  app I use that have long used this great app on the iphone called do tue that is [TS]

  a it to me it's way better than it it's a way to set reminders either one time [TS]

  reminders like go pick up the dry cleaning & friday on friday at five [TS]

  o'clock or repeating reminders like every wednesday at ten o'clock i have a [TS]

  due reminder that tells me to take the trash out that works better for me than [TS]

  either putting them on my calendar or using like the clock app or something [TS]

  like that because they're out of the way I don't want these things I don't want [TS]

  my calendar to say take out the trash every day at ten o'clock i want [TS]

  my calendar to say take out the trash every day at ten o'clock i want [TS]

  a calendar to just tell me things that are actually novel so do is a great app [TS]

  for that and the watch integration with do is great but because it lets me do [TS]

  things like you can do let you snooze things and so you can snooze by like one [TS]

  hour three hours or a whole day and they're just button so you just scroll [TS]

  down on the Apple watch and it'll be like you know market is done because [TS]

  you've done it or snooze for an hour three hours a day [TS]

  great that's and it's a total like notification it's not really a nap [TS]

  it doesn't launch an app it's just that the notification is smart in that way so [TS]

  that sort of sdk definitely the Apple it's to its integral for what the apple [TS]

  watch is actually good for so I don't want to say no sdk but definitely it [TS]

  should not I I really feel firmly that it should not have apps because the [TS]

  abscess it's such a bad experience every aspect of it from the beginning to the [TS]

  end from launch actually just launching the app on that honeycomb screen all the [TS]

  way to the end of using the app is a bad experience and I really think it [TS]

  shouldn't have had it that way they waited to take this kind of full circle [TS]

  the problem with do is there's you can integrate with Siri then like the in [TS]

  which is siri one of the things i do use Siri for regularly is to do reminder [TS]

  things particularly when I'm driving I wasn't driving and a i find it very very [TS]

  helpful very helpful then but we're what 45 years on now [TS]

  yeah five years on and there is no sdk for Cirie and meanwhile you have amazon [TS]

  to do do the actual thing where the sdk is going spreading like wildfire [TS]

  what wildfire and are there in the are there in some respects it gets this [TS]

  whole tension is the Amazon kind of vernacular more limited yes you have to [TS]

  kind of train yourself you have to use the right language right but but that [TS]

  also imparts a degree of flexibility and an experimentation and easy to plug in [TS]

  Tunis that is really works to its credit Emil apples trying to perfect this [TS]

  natural language interface and have a have a an assistant that makes jokes to [TS]

  you that make you want to throw your phone [TS]

  on in the ocean when it makes a joke because it just misinterpreted what you [TS]

  said four times in a row and it is just like hold their you know that is this [TS]

  stop stop i want to get on the second stop stop i was getting worked up [TS]

  alright look at my mother Scott Stewart doing that I mean I don't go get another [TS]

  floor let son work you out and talk about one of my favorite longtime [TS]

  sponsors of the show is automatic automatic is the connected car companies [TS]

  that improves your driving and ingrates your car into your digital life you want [TS]

  to go to automatic calm / the talk show and use the code the talk show you'll [TS]

  get a 20-percent off your purchase what is its it's this little dingus that it's [TS]

  like almost like a USB stick and every car made since I think like 1996-1997 I [TS]

  it goes back a while has this same standard diagnostic port and automatic [TS]

  Condell belt help you find it on your car but in other words it's like when [TS]

  your car says like a service get service code pay for something like that you [TS]

  don't know what that means [TS]

  well it when you go to the mechanic you go to the the car service place they [TS]

  plug into this diagnostic port and that's where they figure out what it is [TS]

  that the car accident [TS]

  automatic you can plug you plug automatic into this exact same port and [TS]

  it reads all that stuff and it gets it every single cards really this is a I [TS]

  had no idea until they started sponsoring the show that this port [TS]

  existed and that it was cross platform across all makes and models of cars [TS]

  it tells you everything you need to know it knows it can it can tell you things [TS]

  about your fuel economy it can tell you exactly when there is an error or some [TS]

  sort of services do exactly what service that means so you can know like hey this [TS]

  is actually important you better go get service right away or this is the sort [TS]

  of thing like yeah I better get this looked at soon but i can wait a week or [TS]

  two if I need to add you know but it tells you all sorts of things tells you [TS]

  whether the way that you're driving is maximizing your fuel efficiency or not [TS]

  and [TS]

  they have what they call that you know an app store and it lets you integrate [TS]

  your car and you're driving with all sorts of things it really is the the [TS]

  internet of things that connected life brought real because you can integrate [TS]

  with things like nest your mechanic freshbooks and more so you could do [TS]

  things like you can set it up [TS]

  I mean this really is like the Future made real you can have things like once [TS]

  you're within X miles of your house have your nest thermostat change the [TS]

  temperature in your house you know in this is right now it's May so we're [TS]

  heading more towards our conditioning so you turn on the air conditioning and [TS]

  lower the temperature in the winter you can have it turn on the heat and and [TS]

  raise the temperature really it works it is amazing and it even works with ifttt [TS]

  if this then that which it literally makes almost unlimited possibilities of [TS]

  the ways that you can integrate this with your life on its it is useful and [TS]

  it is it trust me it is actually fun it is really cool to have a car that can do [TS]

  stuff like this and just to get that information even just even if it didn't [TS]

  integrate with other devices or something like that it's actually really [TS]

  cool just to get the information it's totally private [TS]

  automatic doesn't sell your data its to all they want you to do is just buy the [TS]

  gadget and there's no monthly fees no subscription so normally the automatic [TS]

  dingus is ninety-nine dollars but with you go through this URL go to automatic [TS]

  calm / the talk show and remember the code the talk show and you'll save [TS]

  twenty percent that's twenty bucks so for just 80 bucks you can get this thing [TS]

  that makes your car the car you already have a wake or so go to automatic calm / [TS]

  the talk show and by this then trust me i don't think there's ever been anybody [TS]

  who's done this who's bought this automatic and who regrets it's totally [TS]

  cool one of my favorite sponsors so my thanks to them [TS]

  so you you get your license back [TS]

  yeah well I driver that upset i've been lucky you know the vast majority of our [TS]

  listeners i think still don't think you have a license [TS]

  that's like that's like it doesn't ancient joke it this way i think well [TS]

  the the longtime listeners well enjoy it [TS]

  what happens i lost my license a few years ago for driving too fast but [TS]

  allegedly it adds it adds to the myth [TS]

  let's talk about Apple's order before we get too . because I feel like we've you [TS]

  know so Apple to 10 days ago or so announced they're fine and you know the [TS]

  January to March quarter which is for them in their calendar your cue to and [TS]

  it was a bad for Apple because in and so far is it was the first time in 13 years [TS]

  that they had a year-over-year decline in revenue and profit which is an [TS]

  extraordinary streak but obviously you know even if you even if you you know [TS]

  subscribe to the you know had to happen eventually which i think is you know [TS]

  totally true it's impossible to for street like that to go in forever [TS]

  it's extraordinary isn't it was an extraordinary run but you know it [TS]

  obviously even if it was inevitable it can't be seen as anything other than bad [TS]

  news [TS]

  well it's okay it really it was expected in some respects an extremely last [TS]

  quarter in the first like the the first quarter where people were kind of [TS]

  begging them i was still pretty optimistic and I thought it was a pretty [TS]

  good quarter and and my contention was actually the same thing that that you [TS]

  just wrote last week was that well if you lie I charted out if you took their [TS]

  results from 22,000 h 2014 he took it on an annual basis because you know they [TS]

  they shifted when the iphone with soul was launched in the a.m although like [TS]

  there's lots of [TS]

  you can to do it on a quarter-on-quarter basis because stuff has changed but if [TS]

  you put that on a graph and then forecasted forward what the expectations [TS]

  would have been 4 2015 2016 they were actually right on track and they were [TS]

  growing nicely [TS]

  it just happened they picked up like a free 50 million users in 2015 [TS]

  well let's take a look I became too let's take a step back though and just [TS]

  emphasize that that what we're talking about here is that because two-thirds of [TS]

  apples revenue comes from the iphone fundamentally right now and in for the [TS]

  foreseeable future just as the iphone goes so goes Apple as a whole and what I [TS]

  was the graph you're talking about was specifically it wasn't about Apple as a [TS]

  whole it was specifically iphone sales right exactly yet no you're right on [TS]

  telephone sales and and just experience its 23 it'sit's just it's a room it's [TS]

  just an enormous as big as ipad and mac and services and and watch and [TS]

  everything else Apple does which would still leave them as an enormous and [TS]

  arguably it might even still be the most that's one-third yeah they'd still be [TS]

  close to the most profitable company in tech or at least they'd be in a bit hard [TS]

  without the arm profit because the iphone is also the the iphone is [TS]

  significantly higher margin right products as well so it's it's a [TS]

  two-thirds of revenue but it's like three-quarters of profit so it's yeah [TS]

  absolutely but so fundamentally though as goes the iphone so goes apple and [TS]

  it's the I the decline and iphone sales correlates directly to the decline and [TS]

  everything else right is it right and so and so I came out of the first quarter [TS]

  pretty optimistic and then this quarter came along and I frankly completely [TS]

  changed my view like I think that we got a lot more information this quarter [TS]

  about lots of things that frankly discredited a lot of the things that [TS]

  Apple itself told us in previous quarters and cast a lot of doubt on the [TS]

  on the iphone and and I actually think that the situation is worse then uh then [TS]

  the new row last week for example i think there is [TS]

  you and reason for concern and just be super clear that the iphone is not going [TS]

  anywhere like this is a discussion about like the growth prospects of the iphone [TS]

  which to your point are about the growth prospects of Apple which by extension [TS]

  are about the stock the stock is about the future growth opportunity to stock [TS]

  is not it's not a scorecard it's not it's not a scoreboard what we've done in [TS]

  the past and i now have very serious like I wrote a thing this weekend the [TS]

  daily update like I kind of went through like one [TS]

  there's a data point that is different than I thought it was and there are [TS]

  three assumptions that i had about the iphone business before that I have now [TS]

  changed my mind assumptions about and that makes and as a whole it makes me [TS]

  much more bearish there's an interesting point you're the one who pointed out to [TS]

  me that not publicly I don't think until now on the show but in when i wrote i [TS]

  took the the the stands last week in my the written piece that wandering [TS]

  fireball that what apple announced for q2 was exactly what they had forecast in [TS]

  q1 and therefore it whether you think this is what however bad or ok you think [TS]

  this is it shouldn't have resulted in a jolt in the stock but the stock jolted [TS]

  badly downward at six or seven percent which is if for apple is about it was [TS]

  something like 40 billion dollars in market cap just poof and you pointed out [TS]

  that that's not true [TS]

  like for q2 yes they were what they announced was exactly within the [TS]

  guidance from three months ago but you pointed out and I completely missed this [TS]

  that the the part that was a surprise or was unexpected or quite frankly contrary [TS]

  to what Apple had said before was what they're now guiding for q3 which is that [TS]

  q3 this current quarter april-to-june is actually going to be the worst of it and [TS]

  we're that's contrary and people you know and I I've i think i tweeted about [TS]

  it i didn't write about on during fireworks people are like no they never [TS]

  guide more than one quarter in advance so they you know that's not true that [TS]

  they that they misguided on cue [TS]

  three but they did indirectly because they said in january and their quarterly [TS]

  results we think that this upcoming q2 will be the worst and now they're saying [TS]

  and that now they're saying actually q3 is going to be the worst and that's that [TS]

  is a huge thing that's actually that is significant and it's it's it's worrisome [TS]

  it's worse in two ways [TS]

  so the first reason so the desk you corazon be worse the first reason to be [TS]

  worse is they're taking their basically saying there is a rundown inventory to [TS]

  the tune of 22 billion dollars and what that means and they're there [TS]

  contrary to what people there's kind of thing a few years ago about ship vs old [TS]

  apple and every other manufacturer calculates based on ships not unsold [TS]

  because it's just impossible for them to know except for apple stores which only [TS]

  selling actually a relatively small fraction of iphones that there's no way [TS]

  for them to know when it's sold [TS]

  and so it is calculated schip vs sold and if you look at their their financial [TS]

  reports you can see like the inventory and what's in the channel that sort of [TS]

  stuff and basically over the last two quarters they've been significantly [TS]

  increasing inventory the only reason they were up in the first quarter was [TS]

  because they ran up inventory and the only reason they met their guidance in [TS]

  the second quarter was because of the inventory thing as well and so and so [TS]

  now they're saying a third quarter we're gonna have to run this inventory down so [TS]

  we're very they guided way lower the advantages they're going to meet their [TS]

  guidance again right but had they played the inventory game fairly to put it to [TS]

  the lack of a better word they would have missed last quarter and they would [TS]

  have missed the first quarter as well and and so so one like they actually if [TS]

  they were running their business as they've traditionally run it this would [TS]

  actually be the second miss in a row it instead of being the second barely make [TS]

  making guys that's one but then too [TS]

  and so you can play and it's easy i would just back up keep your number two [TS]

  but i would just back up and say that Apple has under the in the Tim Cook era [TS]

  and that's not just him cookies see CEO but coo he's there so operationally [TS]

  efficient that the ship vs sold thing was easy for us APPL people [TS]

  to mock other makers for because with Apple it was it as a 424 any device has [TS]

  largely been the relevant because they're so operationally efficient that [TS]

  what they ship is what they sell exactly so you with it was actually a fair [TS]

  criticism even if like Ron at technical basis it wasn't quite right like the [TS]

  implication of the criticisms actually totally fair no you're exactly right [TS]

  tend to keep inventory solo and that they really do you know whatever they [TS]

  make is what they're selling you know they've been named they make what they [TS]

  sell and they said what they make but this in this case they've obviously made [TS]

  you know they they got ahead of themselves in manufacturing they they [TS]

  did so in Seoul so wonder the q3 is going to be worse because of the two [TS]

  billion but eat [TS]

  here's what here's what's really concerning even if you take out that two [TS]

  billion the q3 is still going to be worse at which means like when they said [TS]

  that and they said that at the end of January which means there was a month [TS]

  into the current quarter they said that all we think the next court is gonna be [TS]

  the worst quarter and it turns out like they were wrong like it they don't know [TS]

  what's happening with the iphone friendly right you haven't seen Apple [TS]

  bent be this this one a curative the end and it that's just this quarter i mean i [TS]

  think we can get to their earnings calls last year which are actually for me [TS]

  personally or even more concerning some respects [TS]

  yeah you wrote about that recently I i did in and I like so I so it i like [TS]

  maytee firefights let me paraphrase maybe I can do a better job paraphrasing [TS]

  then then you can because you wrote the piece but paraphrasing and then you can [TS]

  correct me or clarify but basically zoom out big picture what we're seeing is [TS]

  that the iphone 6 last year was and not a anomaly in terms of its popularity it [TS]

  was off the curve and but i think i think that the reason was twofold i [TS]

  think it was that that was when they hit what's the carrier in china china mobile [TS]

  china mobile [TS]

  and it was pent-up demand for larger iphones and with the long rumors you [TS]

  know the year-long rumor that hey apple's next iphone is actually going to [TS]

  be have they're going to have a bigger screen version and anybody who was maybe [TS]

  leaning towards upgrading or getting an iphone was like well i'll wait for that [TS]

  bigger screen one because i want a bigger screen and that there was so much [TS]

  pent-up demand for that it that it was an anomalously popular but if you look [TS]

  back a year at what Tim Cook said on quarterly these quarterly and an analyst [TS]

  calls he downplayed that it was you know hehe more or less made it sound as [TS]

  though this is what he expected in that this was the growth that they you know [TS]

  this was organic growth that wasn't anomalous growth exactly a good he was [TS]

  pressed on every single so from the first to learn is called he volunteer [TS]

  that [TS]

  oh there's tons of people to have an upgraded yet we have tons of greenfield [TS]

  and and by the q3 q4 the analyst we're getting a little little skeptical of [TS]

  this is tony second ago who asks really good questions every every call and he's [TS]

  been a great skeptic along and he was pressing click on this like look you [TS]

  you're so you are you sure that you're not poke not just the the delayed 5s [TS]

  upgrades but also pulling forward upgrades for people upgrading early [TS]

  because they want to get the big screen phone he's like are you sure that you're [TS]

  in Temple tim cook four times row and I quoted all four times in in my update [TS]

  like he said oh no like we think there's tons of great opportunity here only this [TS]

  fractions upgraded blah blah and and it was and the reason i'm personally [TS]

  frustrated like I don't we talk to this one-on-one like the only thing worse [TS]

  than being wrong is letting something that you said that was wrong like [TS]

  persist out there inside you want to correct it and make sure what it is and [TS]

  i wrote a piece last fall like saying stop during the iphone and one of my [TS]

  core things was that this upgrade . because I can't believe cook I believed [TS]

  him when he said that we're not seeing an upgrade right are the ordinary [TS]

  there's a there's a ton of opportunity and for him to come back on this call [TS]

  and say all [TS]

  well there was a massive upgrade cycle last year and obviously as you would [TS]

  expect to be slower this year it was I mean I don't know the right word for you [TS]

  because it's in the record he he's changed his tune and in Tony called him [TS]

  out on the call and cook actually got a little annoyed headed which was in [TS]

  really interesting because Tony had him dead to rights because he was the same [TS]

  one I was asking the questions last year and I I don't think Cook was doing it on [TS]

  purpose I because that would be stupid will be super fusions one because you [TS]

  get in trouble too because he look if cooked it on purpose of setting apple [TS]

  for a fall like apples [TS]

  no one of the ppl investment community don't believe Tim Cook right now like [TS]

  with because he's changed exactly what he's saying and so he's hurt his [TS]

  credibility [TS]

  I just kind of think that Apple didn't didn't know why did they didn't didn't [TS]

  really do the research on upgrades and I suspect before this quarter is called [TS]

  like how do we explain this [TS]

  they sent some intern to set to like figure out what are the upgrade rates in [TS]

  previous cycles how does that compare to this cycle and they're like oh crap we [TS]

  were saying the wrong thing last year actually while the ordinary and and we [TS]

  have much sore upgrades as a result this year and and that's how that kind of [TS]

  played out [TS]

  yeah I died thinking I think you knew called it out in one of your daily [TS]

  updates was that it was I daddy finances named Tony second Cox on second alley or [TS]

  something [TS]

  I was so annoyed because I listen to the call because I I sleep through texts [TS]

  during the night here if I woke up and as soon as cook said that like my radar [TS]

  went up because i remember have said was I'm like and I'm like cookies i don't [TS]

  recall scenario before that notice cook in cooks opening remarks he said all [TS]

  this upgrade cycle ball in a medium like that's the key of my daily update I'm [TS]

  gonna nail him on his boy because and that's wrong and it totally ask the [TS]

  question like damn you Tony you just stole my Thunder right so so twofold [TS]

  basically and again if I'm summarizing this wrong tell me but to foam [TS]

  one it seems like Apple misinterpret a year ago Apple misinterpreted the [TS]

  successes success are six is success the iphone the original iphone 6 and 6 plus [TS]

  they get misinterpreted their success as being part of the the growth of iphone [TS]

  in general as opposed to being exceptional out of line with the [TS]

  expected growth they they thought they'd this is you know this is part of the [TS]

  growth curve but the truth was it was outside the growth curve they missed [TS]

  that and then this year they are clearly overestimated the success and I think [TS]

  basically for the same reasons that because they thought the six was normal [TS]

  they thought the success was going to continue on that path and it did not [TS]

  well I think they knew the six was out of whack but i think they attributed it [TS]

  mostly to being them acquiring new customers as opposed to pulled for doing [TS]

  is about as well as opposed to pull for upgrades one thing that's really [TS]

  interesting and this is this is if you want to have a bull case for apple today [TS]

  this is probably the one to take is if you invert 2015 2016 that linear why I [TS]

  talked about actually continues why because right now Apple is probably [TS]

  going to come in with about 200 million iphones but 210 million or so for two [TS]

  for fiscal year 2016 and and this is nothing that change Apple didn't say but [TS]

  they hinted that 2016 would be about the same as 2015 2015 20 or 30 million and [TS]

  so it seemed like all they have this nice boost on the way but but it that's [TS]

  clearly not happening one but two if you invert that and you pretend that 2015 [TS]

  was 205 million and 2016 was 230 million that actual that with that wine is [TS]

  almost perfectly linear likes an r-squared 2.98 like it's incredibly like [TS]

  straight on and you could say oh they just got all the 216 buyers just all [TS]

  body year early and 2017 can revert back to normal like if that is I think the [TS]

  bull case to make for for 2017 in the iphone 7 I I don't buy it [TS]

  that is that is the bull case i can tell you i don't buy it if you want it [TS]

  well tell me tell me why you don't buy it i don't really the reason you don't [TS]

  want a while I it let me meet anybody you first you first i think that the [TS]

  extraordinary growth of the iphone was fueled by adding new carriers around the [TS]

  world and they've already added most of the carrier's did [TS]

  there's there's no big pickings left and the up you get that that's 100 it that's [TS]

  when I presented it like that they they like it i actually tried to research [TS]

  this and I spent time I spent days on this and it was so hard to figure out I [TS]

  i need to hire an intern to like try to figure this out and try to measure what [TS]

  when they went into new carriers in new countries and how that contribute iphone [TS]

  growth but one thing that was always so striking about apple for years is how [TS]

  accurate the forecasts were right they would miss on the high side button [TS]

  missing the high side by the exact same percentage every single time right right [TS]

  it was uncanny and then they said oh from now on we're actually gonna make [TS]

  sure be more concerned we're going to make our guidance actually accurate and [TS]

  then they were accurate by the exact same amount every time and I wonder how [TS]

  much of that was they knew which carriers are coming online in numerous [TS]

  countries are coming online and they knew because they've done this bunch of [TS]

  times we're gonna get this carrier has has has the certain number of customers [TS]

  we get a certain percent of those customers we know that's going to happen [TS]

  and they actually built this into contracts right cares had to had to [TS]

  guarantee a certain number of subscribers and and so they get a huge [TS]

  factor and iphone growth was just increasing the available market of the [TS]

  iphone and once you got the last one flat like that in there is verizon's ntt [TS]

  docomo been a bunch of small ones in general but the last the big one was [TS]

  China Mobile in China Mobile came on in 2014 and then the iphone 6 launched and [TS]

  and that was the last one and now that is gone and the question for growth for [TS]

  the iphone 7 is not just getting people to upgrade because there's lots of [TS]

  evidence that that's extending we can put that as well but where's the new [TS]

  user is going to come from right yes people are switching I i do think [TS]

  they're switching and I think the iphone will get growth from switchers [TS]

  but that's countered by the upgrade cycle being allocated for two reasons 1i [TS]

  phones are just getting better and better and and to the bigger Apple gets [TS]

  the more they get away you think more they get into like the mainstream and [TS]

  people that just aren't that concerned with performance like us geeks are gonna [TS]

  upgrade all the time but but the farther away they get from us the the West [TS]

  likely it is that they're going to upgrade and you combine that with with [TS]

  carriers moving to these these plans where once your phone is paid off your [TS]

  bill actually goes down like there's I'm skeptical where the new users gonna come [TS]

  from [TS]

  yeah it's it's crazy if you think about it I mean it was only january $MONTH [TS]

  I mean that's four years into the iphone that it was available on a second [TS]

  carrier in the US which is verizon i mean it's it's a long time to spread it [TS]

  you know they're there was so much potential and that if you look at the [TS]

  absolutely explosive growth i mean i forget which iphone but it was well into [TS]

  the iphone four era maybe even the 4s where is the forest that was like [TS]

  everyone's mind but it wasn't just that each iphone outsold its predecessor it [TS]

  was that each iphone outsold all of its predecessors combined right right it ull [TS]

  to like the 4th 5th maybe even that sixth iphone generation outsold all of [TS]

  the previous iphones combined and one before it outsold all of its previous [TS]

  ones combined it that that the the slope on the growth curve [TS]

  it'sit's just phenomena it's almost incomprehensible but it was fueled [TS]

  largely by yes lots and lots of people wanted iphones once they you know a year [TS]

  or two in and they understood what it was but they couldn't get it because or [TS]

  or thought they couldn't get it because they didn't want to switch carriers or [TS]

  it wasn't or literally wasn't even available in our country at on any [TS]

  carrier even if they were willing to switch and and this is especially this [TS]

  is such a danger zone for companies where you kind of Miss attribute your [TS]

  success and the iphone just grew for so long and is it's easy for [TS]

  even someone as smartest him cooking in his executive team to to just assume [TS]

  that's going to go on forever and to discount like structural changes in the [TS]

  market where you're you're changing like what if you if the iphone will always [TS]

  have X percent of the market if you there's two functions like you can [TS]

  either increase that the percentage of the market or you can change the market [TS]

  size and four years [TS]

  Apple was changing the market size slowly and steadily and in some respects [TS]

  that's why that you could argue that's why the growth went on for so long i'm [TS]

  like someone like Samsung like Samsung's great strength has always been drawn [TS]

  every single carrier in every single market and they have they have this [TS]

  massive distribution network and that's why they just came out of nowhere to [TS]

  dominate android because they had this network built it right and it's like [TS]

  they come in they're like they come to verizon they're like we want you to [TS]

  carry this in verizon says something like okay we'll do it but we want to put [TS]

  our own custom skin on the UI samsung just happens like go ahead [TS]

  sounds like you got a chick like it's like they just stick out their hand for [TS]

  the handshake like you got it [TS]

  well I don't be paranoid people dissed them especially in apple world but like [TS]

  there's something admirable it's like holy valid strategy and it and the [TS]

  people of course samsung like kind of compression down-to-earth which you know [TS]

  was predictable but don't discount the fact they made billions and billions and [TS]

  billions of dollars along the way right I you know I had I i agree i do that [TS]

  there an end to me there is something there's obviously something different [TS]

  about samsung compared to all the other Android handset makers in the way that [TS]

  you know that it in in a normal market all those very if you if you take our [TS]

  let's just take samsung out take samsung out and all of a sudden the entire [TS]

  android market is more or less indistinguishable I mean there's you [TS]

  know obviously some some more than others but there's really no standout [TS]

  manufacturer samsung is a standout manufacturer though and it yeah you know [TS]

  it there's there's something there's something there and I had so much [TS]

  literary devices are the devices don't speak for themselves [TS]

  it's something that they do strategically right because there's ways [TS]

  to compete other than the product Apple has chosen to compete on the product so [TS]

  i think people in the actual apple world kind of trigger on that but you can [TS]

  compete the distribution you can compete you a unity through marketing there's [TS]

  lots of places to compete and Amazon like like that they were available to [TS]

  everyone and particularly when the everyone like the classic examples [TS]

  actually a motorola with the droid phone which but this is what's that's an [TS]

  example of what Samsung did worldwide where verizon was like work it like were [TS]

  bleeding customers because we don't have the iphone like we need an alternative [TS]

  and like and some Motorola's best years were like it was like that year when the [TS]

  droid music vs everywhere because they just needed an alternative and Samsung [TS]

  filled that role all over the world right before we leave the topic of [TS]

  iphone let's talk about the s strategy and I don't want to put words in your [TS]

  mouth but I think you're questioning whether the s strategy can continue [TS]

  which is that it to put another way the tick-tock strategy of here's a new form [TS]

  factor the iphone let's just call it the iphone 7 and a year later [TS]

  here's the same form factor but with a whole bunch of new stuff inside the [TS]

  iphone 7s then the iphone 8 than the iphone 8's than the iphone nine iphone [TS]

  9s and that's put aside whether you do or whether any of us think that Apple is [TS]

  going to keep numbering the iphones but you know this whole one year is a new [TS]

  form factor the next year is the same form factor with an s you do question [TS]

  whether they should continue with that correct [TS]

  absolutely you know absolutely and I think one of the challenges with [TS]

  technology and Generalissimo species we see this with iPads is that at some [TS]

  point it just gets it's good enough for the majority of people and whatever [TS]

  whatever employed the success is a big jump over the over the six in many [TS]

  respects but it's a big jump that doesn't really make a big difference in [TS]

  the way people use their phones day today at least [TS]

  the majority of people and but something that's so powerful with the iphone it [TS]

  has made it such an iconic devices made it such a profitable device and in the [TS]

  u.s. to a degree but particularly in places like China is the status of it [TS]

  like it is the bit we talked about the beginning it's the best phone in and it [TS]

  means something that you carry it and there is no way this is why I think [TS]

  they've they've introduced the new colors on the S models because that can [TS]

  show you have the newest model but I think they'd like if they want to push [TS]

  growth in we should talk about China because i think that that's the other [TS]

  real worried . for me [TS]

  uh I question whether you can stick with the same form factor for two years [TS]

  because the thing about the phone is a personal device you carry with you pull [TS]

  it out we sit on the cafe put on the table like it it is like a car in that [TS]

  respect where it matters like what car you get out of and I question how long [TS]

  they can stick with this strategy where you don't know if you're using last [TS]

  year's for this year's phone and I sounds super shallow but it's a reality [TS]

  i I don't I don't necessarily question that going forward in terms of where [TS]

  Apple goes in the future but I want to take a moment just to point out and I [TS]

  suspect a lot of people listening might succumb to this fallacious thinking [TS]

  because I've definitely seen it on Twitter and commentary on you know what [TS]

  I phone you know what Apple it needs needs to ought to do with the iphone [TS]

  going forward and I've noticed it for years is that people who are the the [TS]

  more closely attuned you are 22 this if you're the less less casual you are of [TS]

  an iphone user if you're you know an obsessive and you know quite frankly if [TS]

  you're listening to this podcast you're probably rail pretty devastating and the [TS]

  tech gadget journalism racket in general has long I mean forever right from the [TS]

  3gs the 4s 5s has always under appreciated the success of those s [TS]

  models and and there's I think a conventional wisdom that [TS]

  people are only eight people that the general public the world is only [TS]

  interested in the new form factors and that they see because the s-1 look the [TS]

  same [TS]

  they're not as interested in them and that's not true at all because this is [TS]

  the 6s is the first iphone that hasn't outsold its predecessor the 4s outsold [TS]

  the for the 3gs outsold the 3g and the 5s outsold the five [TS]

  I have no idea why I went in that order for 35 but that's what it up until now [TS]

  no and no s model has failed to outsell its predecessor and like i said at least [TS]

  up until the 4s the 4s outsold all previous iphones combined so now part of [TS]

  that as we've just said you know 10 15 minutes ago was about the worldwide [TS]

  expansion to more countries and carriers but it's really just the obsessives who [TS]

  say im bored by the form factor but now that we are III but I do agree to though [TS]

  that it's it's so old I mean we're almost you know next year is going to be [TS]

  the 10-year anniversary of anywhere where a decade into the iPhone era it's [TS]

  amazing that the world has changed you know it's there's no way you know what [TS]

  was true you know in the early years is not going to be true going forward it's [TS]

  you know it like everything in technology it's you know if there's no [TS]

  way to expect a what happened before to continue happening so I don't know when [TS]

  that weeds what that leads to i mean the the big engine for China or three [TS]

  biggest rivals gameplay the big engine for apple has been has been china and [TS]

  that's been the promise that is this massive market that we're growing it's [TS]

  gonna be awesome and I'm exceptionally worried about China now and and for a [TS]

  few reasons so first off apple was up in china in the first quarter but people [TS]

  forget and I actually forgot originally in october or in 2014 f-16 launched the [TS]

  Chinese government actually held up the approval of the iphone 6 and even though [TS]

  Apple intended to watch in September with everyone else they didn't watch it [TS]

  until october seven [TS]

  teen so on a year-over-year comparison you are comparing two and a half months [TS]

  versus three months and had you done a straight-up comparison actually in q1 it [TS]

  would've been down in China 12 in q2 it was massively down in china in greater [TS]

  china and and Tim Cook try to take care of a 0 in greater in China itself is [TS]

  only down seven percent or eleven percent or whatever it was it all the [TS]

  drop was in Hong Kong the problem with that is a lot of those hong kong cells [TS]

  were great market imports into China and as availability increased in China it [TS]

  wasn't its natural at the hong kong market would decrease and I think that's [TS]

  a red herring because I i suspect the vast majority of the Hong Kong which was [TS]

  just demolished was people who used to buy in Hong Kong and smuggle into China [TS]

  and China no longer did so because people just spotted in China those [TS]

  widely available and so I think you do have looked at as a whole and it was [TS]

  down like twenty-seven percent or something like a huge amount and this is [TS]

  really really concerning because this is supposed to be the the the engine up [TS]

  because you can you don't one it's not just that you need upgraders you who are [TS]

  arguably not upgrading is frequently you need to find new customers and the new [TS]

  customer engine was supposed to be China and and the problem is that Tim Cook [TS]

  saying always sold a ton with the 60 of course was done this year [TS]

  well get that's an upgrade story where are the new customers and they're not [TS]

  materializing and you say all China's macroeconomic environment is challenging [TS]

  it is it is a problem but if you're in a green field environment where your you [TS]

  have so many new people to sell to the macro economics don't affect you like [TS]

  apple in 2008 was not affected by the great recession right because there was [TS]

  so many people to sell iphones to it didn't slow the company hardly at all [TS]

  yeah I wouldn't say they're related but it was that they had such there they [TS]

  were in such a period of growth that they their growth exceeded the the [TS]

  positive aspects of their ability to grow exceeded the negative aspects of [TS]

  the Great Recession it was the way that you can say they weren't they [TS]

  no that's fair but the degree to which you are affected by macroeconomic [TS]

  conditions is a function of how mature market is like the more mature your [TS]

  market is the more you're going to be effective in macroeconomic conditions if [TS]

  you're in a in a in a new market where there's tons of growth opportunities [TS]

  like the macroeconomics don't affect you nearly as much and you like I was into [TS]

  all these earnings call every like this is earnings call season for speculative [TS]

  almost on my database right about earnings and I actually love earnings [TS]

  call i feel that the time you can learn more about a company than almost any [TS]

  other time but the degree to which apple for the last two quarters has focused on [TS]

  macroeconomic conditions its kind of striking how it's far exceeded any other [TS]

  tech companies like they're really concerned about the world economy [TS]

  growing into the ditch and like Facebook's not worried about it like [TS]

  they're doing fine I get it it's a testament to how mature your market is [TS]

  how much that affects you [TS]

  I isn't it also the sort of that Apple more than any of the other companies you [TS]

  might compare to his shipping Adams not bits and that therefore they're they're [TS]

  more you know the more affected by the currency exchange rates you know . well [TS]

  maybe the currency is just whether you sell I mean facebook has a greater [TS]

  specific business so they were affected for example right I in advertising for [TS]

  sure is impacted impacted by by recessions I i think that the atoms vs [TS]

  actually thought you were going to talk about China because a reason why apple's [TS]

  been so successful in China is because they're shipping Adams not bits because [TS]

  bits can either be a copied or be blah [TS]

  yeah that's true right and the fact that they ship atoms that are different the [TS]

  software has made them like to a massive degree more successful than any other [TS]

  company in china and frankly I karlik on getting out of stock last weekend [TS]

  playing china i thought it was totally reasonable to be honest like that i [TS]

  bring that are being blocked [TS]

  yeah i mean like it's not it didn't cause a profitable financially but it's [TS]

  a worrisome sign and like it's very like apples China prospects irregardless of [TS]

  whether there [TS]

  saturate the market which is which is which is something that can be having a [TS]

  template talk about the upper middle class in China the upper middle class in [TS]

  China as its defined in this mystery party sites which actually said first [TS]

  inspector I'd like to thank you got from that but i don't know but the upper [TS]

  middle class is defined by an income of 27,000 264 sorry [TS]

  sixteen thousand dollars to 35 thousand dollars u.s. dollars and that's not very [TS]

  much money like it in purchasing power parity it's much more because stuff in [TS]

  China cheaper but I phones are cheaper in China like they're actually more [TS]

  expensive each other in the u.s. like you have to wonder like it i I'm [TS]

  concerned about this narrative in China like how big actually is the iphone [TS]

  market in China and if and again it just goes back into this like one Apple seems [TS]

  don't want the iphone to there's evidence that upgrade rates are are [TS]

  extending particularly the iphone pushes into the marginal customer that's not a [TS]

  geek and update upgrade every year but then three then three they're not a new [TS]

  carriers and then for the in China like maybe it's not nearly as big as we all [TS]

  thought it was like it there's there's genuine reason to be concerned in again [TS]

  the iphones not going anywhere [TS]

  no was replaced with android it's gonna be super successful but where's the [TS]

  growth going to come from and if the growth not going to be there then we're [TS]

  almost back at the services discussion if that makes sense like everything is [TS]

  connected [TS]

  well and the other thing Tim Cook mention and again this is maybe a little [TS]

  worrisome is that Tim Cook spoke optimistically about growth in india and [TS]

  sort of comparing it to China and I like to i thought was a really good piece by [TS]

  rupesh Shander hope i'm pronouncing right who lives in india and his [TS]

  longtime daring fireball reader and his has written me many times over the past [TS]

  but he wrote about the differences between India and China and I almost [TS]

  summarized by his footnote in his post which is i'll just read it entirely [TS]

  according to Pew Research less than 2% of Indians earn more [TS]

  than twenty dollars a day or which is about seven thousand dollars a year as [TS]

  of $MONTH 2011 and that's an increase of about 0.5% over 10 years in China the [TS]

  number of people who earn more than twenty dollars a day increased by 5% in [TS]

  the same . so China's it there's a you know the similarity between india and [TS]

  china is that there's a billion-plus people in a lot of a lot of people a lot [TS]

  of people and so even if relatively small number of people earn i can buy an [TS]

  iphone amounts of money a small percentage of a billion people is an [TS]

  awful lot of potential iphone buyers but that it [TS]

  India's economy is not doing as well as China's in terms of raising the number [TS]

  of people who earn you know seven seven thousand dollars more a year and the end [TS]

  if you only had seven thousand dollars a year buying an iphone is it you know its [TS]

  enormous right because it's you know iphone is you know even if you get the [TS]

  the SE it's you know [TS]

  $400 did he did he cited an observation that in his article on it was grateful [TS]

  for like iphone in China are very different in two respects one is that [TS]

  china is just much richer than India like it's it's eight or nine times on a [TS]

  gdp basis like per person per capita basis richer one but then to any quality [TS]

  in China is much greater than any quality in india and the implication of [TS]

  high inequality with a ton of people is that there's a lot of rich people right [TS]

  and so China has this huge number of people that are like living on Western [TS]

  standards and incomes and an India and you like arguably to its credit i mean [TS]

  it is if the velocity ology goes into this but they did [TS]

  it's a relatively equal country so even the rich people in India one there's not [TS]

  that many of them into their not that rich relatively speaking so so the the [TS]

  market like even though it's a billion people the people who can afford an [TS]

  iphone very structurally much smaller much smaller [TS]

  that is in China yeah it's so anybody looking for China style explosion in [TS]

  India I don't think it's gonna happen and Apple added setback after results [TS]

  where they'd been petitioning the government in India to allow them to [TS]

  sell refurbished iphones and that got rejected which is weird the whole idea [TS]

  of not being allowed to celery furbished phones is weird but it's it seems like [TS]

  some kind of political issue in India but that was the that was a big path for [TS]

  potential sales for apple in India because it would allow them to sell the [TS]

  iphones at prices that Indians could more likely afford without being I don't [TS]

  know what Apple is doing its it yet . well it's just sort of like the way that [TS]

  you can you know like what what is like BMW strategy for reaching people who [TS]

  can't afford a new BMW it's this certified BMW you know certified [TS]

  pre-owned they don't call them use their not used cars that are pre-owned [TS]

  certified pre-owned BMW and all the premium car makers have these certified [TS]

  pre-owned things and that's the way that that premium car companies like BMW and [TS]

  mercedes porsche whoever you want to you know talk about they have these [TS]

  certified pre-owned sales things it's exactly what apples strategy is with the [TS]

  iphone and yet what it's like to orders of magnitude difference in price between [TS]

  say a new Mercedes and a new iphone but it's it [TS]

  Apple's brand is exactly the same their premium phone maker and the way that [TS]

  they expand to the lower price point is with refurbished models [TS]

  well I also thought i'm confused about Apple's doing India because they were [TS]

  they did something really machine india which they haven't done any other [TS]

  country which is they allowed for massive discounts of their phones no the [TS]

  success and the six were hugely discounted india and you could get them [TS]

  for you could get the success for something like five hundred dollars in [TS]

  india which is massively less than in the US and and so when the when the SC [TS]

  launch I actually thought it was targeted india and I presumed that evil [TS]

  Washington and watching you for like five hundred dollars like but more [TS]

  expensive the US [TS]

  I presumed in a matter of weeks or months it would be discounted like three [TS]

  hundred dollars and I I thought they were gonna make a big push india with [TS]

  the SC and it what they actually did was they cut off the discounts for the [TS]

  successful when compete with the SG&A racerback up like a hundred dollars [TS]

  right late because they felt was suppressing SE cells and a like I don't [TS]

  rig [TS]

  I don't know what I don't know what they're doing to like I feel silly [TS]

  because like I presume there discounting was a strategy or extend but three if [TS]

  that is their strategy where their entry-level phone is going to be super [TS]

  expensive in India the SE like it's not a dollar it's not going to be trying at [TS]

  all like a in again [TS]

  where's where our new customers going to come from I don't know before we leave [TS]

  with this idea that the Apple might need to abandon the a strategy I that I see a [TS]

  few problems with that in one of them is that and I haven't done and I should [TS]

  have maybe but anecdotally and I could be just as wrong just as wrong as the [TS]

  people who I know are wrong that the S models generate less consumer interests [TS]

  are having the past generated less consumer interest than the new model [TS]

  ones but i think that the new ones tend to be supply constrained when they're [TS]

  new in ways that the s-model ones aren't for the very obvious reason that Apple [TS]

  is good at making like for example last year the six of iphone 6 with supply [TS]

  constrained when it first came out and that was one of the reasons that the [TS]

  january-march quarter did so well was it you know one of the reasons was that it [TS]

  was delayed in China and then it was available in China and one of the [TS]

  reasons simple reasons that q2 last year was so good for the iphone 6 was that [TS]

  there were people who wanted to buy in q1 and had a weight and that to me is [TS]

  one of the very obvious reasons that Apple goes with this strategy is that [TS]

  operationally it's a huge advantage because there they get very very very [TS]

  efficient and good at making this form factor and all they have to do is put in [TS]

  like a new touch ID sensor which is very different than [TS]

  making an entirely new aluminum case and it entirely new screen size and stuff [TS]

  like that so I just wonder I don't know that it's even feasible for Apple to [TS]

  make a new form factor every year I I just don't think I think that's too too [TS]

  much too fast i don't think that i think it actually takes two years for them to [TS]

  to get you know to get in place to make a new form factor it's a fair point but [TS]

  i guess the counter to that would be is that when they did that with the 3g with [TS]

  3 3g 3gs and four for us the volumes were so much less like it is a it is a [TS]

  very real factor where the more you can spread out the fixed cost of your [TS]

  tooling in your factory over a number of phones like the better margin you get [TS]

  what's called leverage and there certainly is an aspect to that but at [TS]

  this point they're selling every year even in a down here they're selling so [TS]

  many more 60s there was something more successes they sold fours and forces [TS]

  combined or certainly 3g 3gs combined I think they have the scale at this point [TS]

  that they could they could justify the investment in tooling and and setting up [TS]

  lines even if it was only over 1 year but it is a very it it's a fair question [TS]

  that I think you're exactly right its work to apple benefits i mean certainly [TS]

  change the phone so I'm actually very curious to know how much benefit they do [TS]

  get because the success is a different phone the sexy it is i'm curious how [TS]

  much benefit they do get your by year like do they really gonna reuse that [TS]

  much to link they use different aluminum those sort of stuff are if they do get a [TS]

  lot of benefit than the question is probably closer than I think about this [TS]

  is a cost component to it as well uh but I don't know it just what if they could [TS]

  and there's another factor which is that even if they could manufacturing wise [TS]

  literally just snap their fingers and jony ive says Heat team says here's what [TS]

  this year's iphone looks like if they could just snap their fingers and within [TS]

  a day have the supply chain turning them out in the quantity that they need to [TS]

  meet demand even if there was that magical i don't know that i really doubt [TS]

  that Apple's dinner that Jony Ive's team [TS]

  would come up with a new design every year that was that was noticeably [TS]

  different because now there isn't enough getting into it well they could but [TS]

  their their philosophy though they're there [TS]

  ethos is that they don't they they're complete the idea of changing making [TS]

  something look new just to have something that looks new is antithetical [TS]

  to their philosophy which is that they are only going to make something look [TS]

  new if they are convinced that it's better and if not then they won't do it [TS]

  I will tell you I could go back to the size i have it sitting here though [TS]

  but this iphone 5 i'm five a ceremony my hand is is a vastly more beautiful phone [TS]

  the next [TS]

  and my sixth i well I find that you know in terms of you know things I'm worried [TS]

  about with apple in the long run it's that you know the fact that I've i [TS]

  prefer the guy I've been doing that I do it every time I keep it I keep my SE [TS]

  review unit here I don't use it day to day anymore but I I much prefer the way [TS]

  I just sit here and worry stone in my in my hands over and over again I find that [TS]

  I it's it's it's all like 25 to me the 5 and 5s where the pinnacle of because of [TS]

  the four was brilliant it was so out of left field but the five like perfected [TS]

  the four right like it's it really is like the perfect the perfect form factor [TS]

  in my opinion [TS]

  yeah i find that the four was but you know well the fact that the back could [TS]

  crack was a write that on the shuttle deficiency but in fact that you couldn't [TS]

  tell in your hand which side was which was sort of an inefficiency as well I [TS]

  find it worrisome that Apple clearly in it at least jony ive's team thinks that [TS]

  the six success form factor is superior to the 55 sse and size aside i would i [TS]

  would prefer i think a 4.7 inch phone that was had the flat sides you know and [TS]

  and sharp I think it's everybody better it because i think what they were [TS]

  concerned about was like the round I think the Apple was so worried about [TS]

  making a big phone that I think the six like they did a lot of affordances in [TS]

  the 64 larger phone like having the rounded edges and stuff like that and I [TS]

  and now that people are more comfortable with it i think they'll be a little more [TS]

  more exploratory with the seven anything to is actually the this suppose the [TS]

  supply chain rumors which credit supply chain the supply chain nailed the [TS]

  success being being low like that it was widespread in taiwan for sure it got on [TS]

  the Western media as well that the apples tampa in 40 years a factoid John [TS]

  i just i just posted this today cause I didn't calculations I sosoni in their [TS]

  earnings and they actually warning wait wait wait in April where they said that [TS]

  their devices division where they make the they make the the the camera sensors [TS]

  was going to have a big miss and it was a real surprise that's been a real [TS]

  strength for sony for the last couple years and cost only by the way the [TS]

  company's doing really really well and I couldn't be more pleased it's what I [TS]

  think for us children of the eighties like it's the company that will always [TS]

  hold a special place in our hearts 0 divided their devices had a big loss and [TS]

  they had to do a write down and the write-down was of 560 million dollars [TS]

  with the sensors that basically did David cell and there was speculation [TS]

  that was a customer what happened what went on [TS]

  it turns out if you go to the to the estimates of the success costs which [TS]

  obviously who knows if they're true or not but the estimate for the camera on [TS]

  the successes is 2250 twenty dollars and fifty cents that may or may not include [TS]

  wetlands assembly but if you presume that's the sensor that is that sensor [TS]

  that cost twenty dollars fifty cents if you take 550 million / 2015 contracts [TS]

  125 million sensors that Sony apparently made and one of their customers ended up [TS]

  declining to exception of it turns out 25 million is about what most analysts [TS]

  think Apple overall over forecasted the iphone success huh with uh which is it's [TS]

  interesting that a few levels one like it with i already had in my head in that [TS]

  in not on my excel spreadsheet that Apple had lowered their forecast by 25 [TS]

  million and it actually matches almost perfectly to it goes to show the [TS]

  leverage and power apple still has that Sony had to eat it even though apples [TS]

  the one that screwed up our buddy out there is after [TS]

  I that was that was pretty interesting this break you know what you know those [TS]

  sensors you know what [TS]

  no we're not gonna pay for that we're actually not going to pay for that I'm [TS]

  that is interesting where did you post that I didn't cnni I thought I just [TS]

  adjusted today you might not see that was enlightening today's update i [TS]

  thought but I really thought before we started recording that I had caught up [TS]

  Iran as i call it was the internet is a section about Nintendo vs sony so it [TS]

  might go out i skipped it is contended apart i did see it but then I skipped it [TS]

  because i didn't know i was just looking at the very end [TS]

  i I don't I yeah it's been since it's interesting i enjoy the fixed typo to [TS]

  this is this is why i don't think i could do like I don't think I gotta do [TS]

  worse [TS]

  it's awful it's awful yeah because once it's out its out so there's always a [TS]

  balance to fix it or not and so i did about Tesla and I said that they had and [TS]

  cash outflow operation 59 60 billion or 5 and 25 billion and fire 25 billion is [TS]

  the market cap of Apple approximately of course it's not billion it's million and [TS]

  in the next sentence i added up the stuff it was clearly i met million one [TS]

  of this but i will it it's one of the great flaws in the English language that [TS]

  begin its million billion then even trillion and whatever go on but [TS]

  especially in terms of what numbers we actually use in terms of talking about [TS]

  money knowing and billion are the only ones that really matter it's very you [TS]

  know this right few discussion all into trillions but they're all weather like [TS]

  Troy petroleum is two different letters right is so it's it's like significantly [TS]

  different yeah but they should be it [TS]

  it is it's it's helpful improper and I think actually helps you understand how [TS]

  different that a thousand from a million is because the word sounds so different [TS]

  and a hundred sounds so different from a thousand even though it's only a 10-fold [TS]

  difference it's only a 10 full difference from a hundred to a thousand [TS]

  thousand to a million is a thousandfold difference and it sounds totally [TS]

  different but a million to a billion is a thousandfold difference and it sound [TS]

  so similar and our brains just so many people's brains just naturally file them [TS]

  together and I totally understand the difference but [TS]

  in writing it is the easiest and a anybody who writes la that mistake one [TS]

  way [TS]

  sure it's a so the worst with an email is because it out [TS]

  sure it's a so the worst with an email is because it out [TS]

  they're right and so I was just gonna leave i saw it actually right away and [TS]

  like crap but it was gonna leave it but i got like double-digit like tweets and [TS]

  emails you have something like if you actually think about it like obviously I [TS]

  meant million but I got more than usual like our digital million or billion and [TS]

  liked it so I had to issue the the follow-up email thing fixing this type [TS]

  of which i hate doing because like to me a brilliant powerful aspect of [TS]

  destruction model is i insert myself into a place that people always look at [TS]

  with your email box and I take that very seriously right and so to send a second [TS]

  email i really hate doing but you know if I'm getting so many responses like [TS]

  what did you mean I feel like I have to correct it in like oh yeah right [TS]

  it depresses me so before we move on to the final segment of the show but this [TS]

  is to hit the rumor mills the rumor mill though is that the iphone 7 or whatever [TS]

  they're going to call it this fall the new iphone this fall is going to be very [TS]

  very similar to the it seems as though the acid cycle is coming to an end but [TS]

  it seems as though the way it's coming to an end is not by coming up with new [TS]

  form factors every year but by extending existing form factors for additional [TS]

  years so first example proof of it we have is the iphone SE which is the first [TS]

  time that the same form factor has been used three times and it the rumor mill [TS]

  is very strong that the iphone that this year's iphone i don't know I I a moment [TS]

  i am really starting to think they're not going to call the iphone 7 just on a [TS]

  gut level so I don't want to call it that but for lack of a better term the [TS]

  iphone 7 is going to be in large part in this physically indistinguishable from [TS]

  the iphone 6 and 6s accept that but that's an alliance remove that's a [TS]

  bummer that's a bummer i I'm with i'm not a huge fan I'm was it wasn't go the [TS]

  other direction the other rumor is that the iphone the the 2018 iphone which [TS]

  would theoretically with the 7s is going to be not only a 17-3 2017 . this is [TS]

  this year you're right choice you're right choice everything you're right [TS]

  fiscal year twenty eighteen is then alright infuse examples rights in [TS]

  October but that phone is also going to be [TS]

  markedly different from the 2016 iphone right which 60 either wondering like [TS]

  extend the 6-2 like three years which you just kind of said or on the flip [TS]

  side they're gonna move into an annual refresh cycle [TS]

  uh I hope for I think it needs to be and recycle baby here's a ship a phone with [TS]

  the same form factor i would be that'd be amazing [TS]

  here is what I wouldn't i would not wait you're heavily on any aspect of this but [TS]

  if you wanted me to wager at all i think that they are getting away from the tik [TS]

  tok s cycle but the way that they're doing it is not with significant it's [TS]

  different here's what I think is going to happen i think that this year's [TS]

  iPhone new iPhones will only be in the 4.7 and 5.5 sizes [TS]

  there's not the SE if you like 4-inch iphones you might as well buy the SE now [TS]

  I really don't think that they're gonna come out with the new 4-inch iphone 6 [TS]

  months from now I think it's gonna be 4.7 and 5.5 I think it will largely look [TS]

  like the iphone 6 and 6s I think that I this is the blood the biggest question I [TS]

  have is whether both phones get the dual camera module or whether only the 5.5 [TS]

  plus does the rumor mill says that only the plus well I my gut feeling my spidey [TS]

  senses that doesn't sound like Apple and it i think that maybe the reason the [TS]

  rumor mill has that is that the schematics the only schematics that have [TS]

  leaked or for the 5.5 and that the schematics for the 4.7 didn't leak but I [TS]

  don't want to bet against it because so much of the rumor mill says only the [TS]

  plus is getting the dual camera module that just seems out of character to me [TS]

  because the 4.7 inches the best-selling model so i don't know it because it's [TS]

  the best-selling model it just seems unusual but i just think whether they [TS]

  both get the dual camera or not it's largely going to i think the room is [TS]

  probably right that this year's phone will largely look like the six and [TS]

  success except that the antenna lines move and I think anything I haven't seen [TS]

  that actually that the only the plus is going to get the dual camera or know [TS]

  that the no I hadn't seen that was gonna look to say [TS]

  I'll put it in the show notes and i'll send you a link privately but i will put [TS]

  it in the show notes and then I think next year's phone the 2017 model the one [TS]

  that will come out and support Emperor [TS]

  I what I have heard now this is not really from the ruminal this is more [TS]

  just scuttlebutt that i've heard is that it will be an all new form factor and [TS]

  and there have been some rumors i guess that say this but what I'm saying is [TS]

  I've heard this independently that it is getting rid of the chicken little [TS]

  completely get rid of the chin and forehead on the phone and it'll the [TS]

  entire front face will be the display interesting and that the you know touch [TS]

  ID sensor will be somehow embedded in the display the front-facing camera will [TS]

  somehow be embedded in the display the speaker everything all the sensors will [TS]

  be somehow behind the display when I what I don't know I have no idea but [TS]

  whether that means that they're going to shrink the actual thing in your hand to [TS]

  fit the size the screen sizes we already have or whether they're going to grow [TS]

  the screens to fit the devices were already used to holding I don't know but [TS]

  that's what i think is going to happen i think 2017 is going to be a the [TS]

  jaw-dropping wow that's astounding that's an astounding industrial design [TS]

  iphone and that this year's is not but it's not going to be the you really have [TS]

  to look at very very very very fine details to tell the difference between [TS]

  the six and success I think that this iphone 7 or whatever you want to call [TS]

  this year will be it will largely look the same but that it you know there'll [TS]

  be something like the antenna lines being different will make it pretty easy [TS]

  to tell that it's that's what I've heard [TS]

  well I I feel good about my prediction that that they're not going to turn the [TS]

  growth and I mean just I don't think that it lives it i really don't i don't [TS]

  think that consumed you know normal people really care too much about that I [TS]

  i disagree i release at least on this side of the world like like it [TS]

  it matters that you can show off that you have the latest iPhone like it's [TS]

  just it's a much more materialistic not displaying your status world than the [TS]

  the United States is what they saw that ad i think they could solve this while [TS]

  those rumors [TS]

  earlier I think they could solve that though with different anodization that [TS]

  might gather absolutely in it but yeah we know I guess that's why I think [TS]

  they've watched the additional colors with the S models recently uh but yeah [TS]

  it's interesting [TS]

  yeah like the whole rose gold thing seems like the sort of fashion oriented [TS]

  thing that it it's not like a long-term trend it's a short-term fat [TS]

  yeah and that they may be that you know who knows what they'll do but they're [TS]

  you know obviously have a lot of opportunities you know they could color [TS]

  in any way they want they could go like you know like the way the the ipods to [TS]

  be and go colorful I mean totally throw Lupin all of Samsung's for rose gold [TS]

  production or whatever they call everybody but but we weren't with the 5 [TS]

  c's it has to be the high-end iPhone that does it you can't come in on the in [TS]

  the middle level because an iphone is high-end a it has to retain that yeah [TS]

  yeah yeah yeahs premium right [TS]

  III don't it's it's fat I mean we're in a really fascinating time time with [TS]

  apple i mean it is how can they say I guess here's what concerns me here's [TS]

  what makes me really worried about the about the last or lost a little bit it's [TS]

  that one it doesn't seem that Apple knows what's going on and that concerns [TS]

  me but we talked about like the changing forecast and what they said last year [TS]

  and stuff and that's very were some in general one and then to it feels like [TS]

  Cook has defaulted to the short-term expedient answer to questions that will [TS]

  prop up apple stock as opposed to laying the groundwork for the what is best for [TS]

  apple in the long-term Apple would be in better shape today if Apple if Tim Cook [TS]

  had been much more conservative last year and said this growth has vastly see [TS]

  their expectations which was true and said we next year we might be down like [TS]

  if he had like it would in he could have adopted a conservative approach and [TS]

  apple could have beaten it [TS]

  and you're like wow look at that it turns out we're beating it or if they [TS]

  could have been like they are today like a as I told you last year like the six [TS]

  was amazing like we really crushed it we got super look like we just everything [TS]

  came that we have china mobile with the big screen all the same time everything [TS]

  was a perfect year but like i told you last year like that was probably going [TS]

  to make 2 6 2016 tough Apple would be in better shape today they really would be [TS]

  and it concerns me that cook did not take that approach right if you don't [TS]

  like the old Howard to its ideals Seinfeld skit about nighttime Jerry [TS]

  screwing daytime Jerry and nighttime Jerry will stay up and watch a movie [TS]

  knowing that that morning jerry has tied up and i love that analogy right yes and [TS]

  2015 Tim Cook hung 2016 tim cook out to dry [TS]

  Yeller or on you knowingly or unknowingly but yep but 2016 today's Tim [TS]

  Cook has to you know want to kick 2015 tim cook in the ass by a language me is [TS]

  like Tim Cook do you watch the jim cramer interview with simple yes [TS]

  yeah like day I it worries me because it feels like 2016 to cook is now hanging [TS]

  2017 to the club dr yeah and it's like you know what you think you know that [TS]

  that Tim Cook has apples long-term interests at heart that he is not a [TS]

  short-term quarter-to-quarter thinker he's not trying to maximize apple that [TS]

  he has lots of stuff that looks like it's quarter quarter [TS]

  yeah exactly right you like you think you know that and and it's like you said [TS]

  that you you know it lends a lot of you you're willing to and at least we have [TS]

  been in the past been willing to take Tim Cook at his word because you think [TS]

  that but now you start to start you have to start wondering about that like how [TS]

  much I i will tell you as an analyst like I i really want to be right like [TS]

  it's super important to me not because like and I breaks I don't do stock picks [TS]

  and stuff like that but like I just try to be right I work really hard at my job [TS]

  and do what I do and it bugs me that I was wrong because I believed him cook [TS]

  and and and again that's my personal like problem like in tim cook doesn't [TS]

  need to worry about me but [TS]

  I think that Apple and the apple stock in all the stuff that temple was worried [TS]

  about would be in better shape if Tim Cook had cool i don't know abs and it [TS]

  worries me i wrote this last year the Apple music we're like the we were [TS]

  sitting next to each other at the Apple music know where we're just baffled and [TS]

  we should talk about your article like we're just baffled at this Apple music [TS]

  presentation it was so bad right and and and I went back to my hotel room i wrote [TS]

  about that day and i sit and i talked about Tim book talks about focus and he [TS]

  says about how Apple so focus on sort of stuff and I'm like I'm not seeing that [TS]

  from apple [TS]

  I'm not seeing the rhetoric is not matching what's coming out of the [TS]

  company and that concerns me and frankly when i wrote that article my concern has [TS]

  only deepen since then [TS]

  well let's take a bite was going on we gotta wrap up soon but I want to thank [TS]

  I've got a Subaru add the discussions that Stalin very worked up very well I [TS]

  want to thank our final sponsor the show our good friends at audible audible.com [TS]

  has more than 250,000 audiobooks and spoken word audio products you can get a [TS]

  30-day trial free at audible.com / talk show now if you want to listen to it [TS]

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  them start listening or start live yet start listening to them anytime anywhere [TS]

  you can play the their audio books on your phone your tablet your computer [TS]

  kindle fire even ipods audio books are great if you're listening to me right [TS]

  now it means you like spoken content you get by definition and if you have more [TS]

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  or or more episodes of the talkshow audiobooks are terrific for that they're [TS]

  great for flights they're great for road trips they're great for a daily commute [TS]

  you might think you don't have time to read books but you'd be surprised by how [TS]

  many audio books you can hear each year even if you only listen to them going [TS]

  back and forth to work [TS]

  find out more get a free 30-day trial go to audible.com / talk show [TS]

  I and there's no stress or obligation you can cancel your membership at [TS]

  anytime and they even have what they call the great listen guarantee if you [TS]

  start an audiobook and you don't like it you can exchange it and get another one [TS]

  for free so it's almost like a can't lose offer go there find out more [TS]

  they keep sponsoring the show because i think people keep going because people [TS]

  who listen to this show and other podcast are the exact audience for [TS]

  audiobooks so go check them out at audible.com / talk show [TS]

  yeah i just wrote last night about Apple music because there is a leak or I don't [TS]

  know whether it was planned or not but Bloomberg had a story that there's a [TS]

  major revamping of the Apple music user interface i guess that's one way to put [TS]

  it that it's going to you know to at least in and according to bloomberg an [TS]

  acknowledgement that what they ship last year was confusing or convoluted or just [TS]

  not just not well designed and that it will be coming again like last year at [TS]

  WWDC which i'm sure all the desert throw about I I don't know how much is the [TS]

  WWDC keynote even about developers anything now I know I know it was you is [TS]

  the watermelon is right there i had to take a swing and hit right i don't know [TS]

  i think that's a little i mean there's some truth to it but I agree it is it is [TS]

  a public event now it's it's just like any other application note right and the [TS]

  reason why I'm really i died not moved by the argument that the wwc morning [TS]

  keynote audit necessarily needs to be developer related even tangentially is [TS]

  that it's followed by in the afternoon there with the Apple calls the state of [TS]

  the union which in in plain english is the technical keynote write WC every [TS]

  single year has two keynote morning keynote which is the one that everybody [TS]

  in the general everybody knows about [TS]

  and then there's a lunch break and then you come back in and there's a technical [TS]

  keynote and the technical keynote the state of the union could not possibly be [TS]

  more nerdy I mean it's talk about frameworks it is you know the source [TS]

  code me show you coding on screen right i show you source code [TS]

  I mean it couldn't be more so if that's what you want your like I'm a developer [TS]

  and paid 1600 other one took a little keynote you're gonna get it anyway you [TS]

  know so that I say you know it you know if you don't and if you don't want a [TS]

  non-technical keynote sleep in and skip the morning keynote I don't have any [TS]

  sympathy for that argument definitely go to the bathroom in the women's bathroom [TS]

  right hold though what are you talking about [TS]

  no it wasn't the women's bathroom you're you're totally you're confused all your [TS]

  right down in North Carolina right north carolinian life I would not do it given [TS]

  that you're conflating it with last year you and I sat in the WWDC keynote [TS]

  together and we both we got in early because they they used to in the old [TS]

  days only let that press in like five minutes before the keynote started I [TS]

  they let us in early and we had plenty of time but we both thought maybe we [TS]

  should maybe we should take a bathroom break before this and it was good that [TS]

  we did because the goddamn keynote went on so long and you go out now this will [TS]

  be all different this year because it's going to be at the bill graham civic [TS]

  auditorium instead of the upstairs top floor moscone but top floor moscone the [TS]

  men's room line was i I mean seriously no exaggeration 50 60 75 people out the [TS]

  door in the mail and ridiculous and of course there's nowhere to record the [TS]

  women's the yeah exactly there's never align in the women's bathroom we did not [TS]

  go into women's bathroom that what we did is we took the elevator down to the [TS]

  first floor and went to the first floor men's room which had no one where there [TS]

  was no one [TS]

  yeah and then we write we came back up to the to the third floor and we saw the [TS]

  line and I was just going to go back and we take my seat but you acted like a [TS]

  Good Samaritan and started trying to tell people in the line [TS]

  hey you know you can go downstairs if you come downstairs they don't listen to [TS]

  me you know buddy list no enlisted that's why I didn't bother it doesn't [TS]

  doesn't doesn't pay to be a good Samaritan been doesn't pay [TS]

  this is what happens with see I still have this small number of Twitter [TS]

  followers i don't have superpowers quite that you do is I i still have empathy [TS]

  for my fellow man i can't believe this i can't believe that you literally meant [TS]

  literally everything for my fellow man i can't believe that you misremembered it [TS]

  is a sneaking into the women's bathroom [TS]

  i I don't know where that it's totally drill the women's bathroom definitely [TS]

  had no light I mean oh yes that's the commentary and the frog was the [TS]

  technology I don't know why though I remembered that was going to the pits it [TS]

  does occur to me though that we will I don't know what that you know that's [TS]

  just that's a minor hiccup in the bill graham civic auditorium plan where there [TS]

  won't i don't i don't think there will be such a thing as well fortunately [TS]

  walked you if you walk there you go to the Tenderloin first you can just go to [TS]

  the bathroom on the street before you get the pic i didn't know how to phrase [TS]

  that I wrote when i wrote that that's interesting because it's it's a bit of I [TS]

  pondering fire by rote it's a bit of a hike from the moscone area hotels in [TS]

  moscone is surrounded by by hotels to the bill graham civic auditorium and [TS]

  somebody a few people wrote to me and they like you know either cited google [TS]

  maps for Apple maps in there like it's you know it's like a mile and they're [TS]

  like you you know do I you seriously so lazy that you that you think that's a [TS]

  hike and really what I meant by a bit of I is that it's it's not so much that [TS]

  it's far but that it's not it [TS]

  hey it's definitely unpleasant and be it it's questionably unsafe to walk there [TS]

  is little better to be fair out by the IE in it is walking the morning argue [TS]

  every one that's gonna bother you sleep right but the idea is probably better [TS]

  just just just take a taxi arrived in America or do you do the mood community [TS]

  goes right down Market Street yeah anyway the well but dad but how does how [TS]

  does the muni economy thousands of thousands of people you know I mean we [TS]

  have that tiny in and you know i mean in like uber and stuff like that it's like [TS]

  it it's if lots of other people's out that many that's one right i don't know [TS]

  i don't i think it'll be alright but anyway Bloomberg says Apple music big [TS]

  revamp I [TS]

  an acknowledgement and whether i'm not that they're going to acknowledge it but [TS]

  the revamp is an acknowledgement that it was that people were confused by what [TS]

  they had last year and they're going to announce it at WC again so i made one [TS]

  thing you talked about is you felt like the best thing would be to break apart [TS]

  Apple music from itunes and it like from a product design perspective i can one [TS]

  person agrees you but one thing that's interesting is as become more apparent [TS]

  over the last year is that Apple's integration of itunes apple music is [TS]

  arguably a strength in some scenarios like for example when you have like all [TS]

  the stars now are adopting this windowing strategy where first make [TS]

  their stuff available for purchase so they're in a super-smart right lee Fidel [TS]

  makes her a CD available for only for personal for streaming all her best fans [TS]

  give her ten dollars or fifteen dollars or whatever it is Beyonce's album was [TS]

  $18 and then a year or two later they open up to streaming and get all the [TS]

  marginal fans that want to pay for it so it's super smart for them and only Apple [TS]

  has a solution where those are connected like you have one app that has your [TS]

  purchase Adele tracks and you're streaming other tracks where as if they [TS]

  were separate apps you would have to preemptively choose the right apt to get [TS]

  your music that's a fantastic . and I'm probably wrong and you know that that [TS]

  the that the right way to do it is to break it into a separate app but I think [TS]

  whatever they come up with has to have that level of clarity between what is [TS]

  yours and what is streaming and just think about Jim Dalrymple's complaints [TS]

  throughout the year of the way that his library got screwed up you know like it [TS]

  it that doesn't happen if Apple music is a standalone app you know [TS]

  oh I'll tell you what the problem is with Apple music I think it's actually [TS]

  pretty straightforward if you open Apple music there's five tabs on the bottom i [TS]

  read from left to right number one for you number two new number three radio [TS]

  number for kinect number 5 my music [TS]

  the reality is i spend ninety percent of my time in my [TS]

  music and that's smushed into one tab and that includes not just my music that [TS]

  i bought in itunes but also like Apple music if I want to search for something [TS]

  about music I have to go to my music and search like they've broken out these [TS]

  four tabs that are that are just don't use and I suspect most people don't use [TS]

  and I think that's where the mistake came in like they need to like at the [TS]

  end of the day people what would make even know what makes music such a great [TS]

  business and what and what reason my Jobs was so focused on owning the music [TS]

  is that people tend to this one was the same stuff again and again right and [TS]

  Apple music / index on this discovering new music like I don't like 40 you and [TS]

  new yr those different things like and then connect [TS]

  I mean I'm sorry eat apple i will if Apple ever births successful social sort [TS]

  of network [TS]

  um I will eat a little hat like that needs to go that route like radio maybe [TS]

  I should be different app I don't know for you and you should be combined and [TS]

  if you break out like my music that I've collected either i bought in itunes or I [TS]

  saved it from the apple music from music to be in my collection and then you have [TS]

  a separate search tab like where's the Search tab should be his own tab i [TS]

  actually think that there is a solution to make this appt significantly more [TS]

  manageable I my idea for a standalone Apple music app which again I haven't [TS]

  it's not like I've said and design the whole thing but when people object to a [TS]

  but I ok i just want one place to listen to whatever I've got my idea is [TS]

  predicated on the idea that in the way that other apps have always had apps [TS]

  access to your music library like when you're in iMovie you can important song [TS]

  from your music right that this Apple music app would have like let's say if [TS]

  there's a band that or an album like a new Adele album that's not in Apple [TS]

  music streaming yet if you have it in your personal music collection then you [TS]

  could still play it from there it would just magically you know it would it [TS]

  would appear there with some sort of visual indication that it's there [TS]

  because you own it so I'm [TS]

  not arguing against it i'm just saying that the visual design it should just [TS]

  treat basically the way i would propose it would be that it would treat any [TS]

  track you have in your personal library whether it's like not available like the [TS]

  new Adele album or whether it's like Prince like an artist who just didn't [TS]

  sell streaming rights to Apple music or whether it is something like a live [TS]

  recording of an album that you know like passed around by fans like Marcos band [TS]

  Phish you know but if it's in your personal library i.e it would appear in [TS]

  Apple music in the same way that you're that you're music appears and I I movie [TS]

  and whatever else so I'm not saying you shouldn't be able to that that that [TS]

  you'd have to go to a different app to listen to this stuff in her stuff I'm [TS]

  just saying like I think it you're arguing that it just shouldn't be [TS]

  segregated so much down at the bottom and in tabs yet what I mean the problem [TS]

  is like it would know I get the problem Apple music isn't really about my music [TS]

  right it's about what Apple like Apple thinks you should have to listen to and [TS]

  literally I there are five tabs and Apple music and I don't touch four of [TS]

  them and the only reason i subscribed music in this is actually the to take [TS]

  this full circle to the the services thing that I'm still subscribed Apple [TS]

  music and the reason i am is because when i drive my kids around like we [TS]

  always listen to songs and and i use Siri to like they request songs and i [TS]

  use Siri to want to watch the song and of course serie doesn't have an API so [TS]

  it doesn't support like Spotify ER or other things and it's it's it's [TS]

  interesting because it gets into this tension like what is Apple strategy [TS]

  where they try to make money like in this case Siri is actually forcing me to [TS]

  give more money to Apple as opposed to Spotify just because it works there and [TS]

  also my daughter Taylor Swift that's the other reason and you don't have you [TS]

  don't own any Taylor Swift you just listen to it throughout the music is i [TS]

  die i think i got 99 i think i actually got 99 win Taylor Swift did her breakup [TS]

  with Spotify wrote about the update i was i was really interesting idea if [TS]

  guys so now [TS]

  and so I've adopted a Twitter persona of being a a tailor so fat which I enjoy [TS]

  its kind of an ongoing gag on exponents about me [TS]

  me and Taylor Swift so I is this a good segue to talk about the Amazon echo that [TS]

  you tricked me into buying yeah we will mean you so you we you have said and [TS]

  written i think that you know amazon echo and a lot of people have good words [TS]

  about amazon that no person for the record with my own against the record [TS]

  when and the actual launch almost everyone jumped on it and I as far as i [TS]

  read i was the only person that was enthusiastic about it and people are [TS]

  dumping on it because it was when the phone that i am just written off the [TS]

  fire phone right which was obvious from day one was wisdom was a mess and the [TS]

  echo though so there's two things one is that Amazon is such unique company in [TS]

  that they're built to run experiments and fail or succeed and the foot in the [TS]

  phone failed and the more than my Admiral thing with the phone is even [TS]

  though bezel was clearly won it probably should have watched the first place was [TS]

  obviously a bad idea but you should have been identified or have been identified [TS]

  internally as well that it should have been [TS]

  this is like that's the way they the way they ruthlessly killed it was a very [TS]

  impressive right even though is bezel is baby would it failed utterly like heat [TS]

  cold blooded we killed it [TS]

  late like well again I'm not glorifying way of people it's a tragedy that people [TS]

  lost their jobs although they were engineers in Silicon Valley i'm sure [TS]

  they taste survived but like they weight off people they shut the whole thing [TS]

  down it was over like you're always we imbeciles probably realize personally I [TS]

  got wrapped up in this I made a mistake and in some respects being able to [TS]

  recognize and own your mistake especially when you're someone who's 60 [TS]

  is a wildly as somewhat jeff bezos is super impressive and and and kudos to [TS]

  them but the the echo comes out and the echo echo it was so different than the [TS]

  fire phone because the echo was all the echo was a conduit it's a conduit to [TS]

  amazon services and you could see the connection to buying stuff and all [TS]

  and leveraging app Amazon's Cloud power power it was totally different than the [TS]

  fire phone was but i think it was kind of dumped on the beginning because [TS]

  people were locked into the fireman was you can't actually buy stuff through it [TS]

  or it can you I guess what you can do is add stuff to your shopping list because [TS]

  you can eat i think you can buy stuff now that you wouldn't want it launched [TS]

  you can only ask your shopping list by believe they've added by stuff now know [TS]

  and we were playing with it in and jonas and amy i'm not i'm not certain jokingly [TS]

  did something like that and then Alexis said she was adding it to John Gruber [TS]

  shopping list in a panic they're like no cancel cancel i I'm riding on a lot it's [TS]

  an interesting device I don't regret the money I spent on it but it's I'm not as [TS]

  impressed by it as I think you are but maybe I don't have enough of these [TS]

  add-ons that add new services i mean this is so one of the fundamental [TS]

  differences between Alexa and Cirie and and let's just imagine that Apple has a [TS]

  serie device that's the same as Alexis so we're not comparing phones and [TS]

  tablets to the stand this is because it very be very easy for Apple to do the [TS]

  same thing just make a speaker with a microphone that you can say the I'm not [TS]

  gonna say excited it'll trigger people's phones the hay and then the Serie and [TS]

  then you talk to it [TS]

  hey theory it's very easy don't screw with people then it's very easy to [TS]

  imagine a similar apple product and it would be very different because the way [TS]

  that Siri works is very different from the way alexa works in terms of that [TS]

  structure that is expected [TS]

  Alexa is is far more expect far more structure in what you tell i'm going to [TS]

  see her tell her to do than Cirie does for better and for worse in my opinion I [TS]

  think some of it is significantly worse and it's kind of disappointing but your [TS]

  argument is that because once you know what you can tell her to do it works way [TS]

  more reliably well so [TS]

  yeah i think we talked about like like serious definitely folks like pure [TS]

  natural language processing where it will figure out what what you say [TS]

  whereas Alexa is much more like you have to say it the right way to get it to [TS]

  work and so there's multiple factors beyond here so so one there's a great i [TS]

  think was business insider there's a great profile of how the like the story [TS]

  of alexa and how like they were represented pizzo something like we're [TS]

  gonna have to two milliseconds of like latency and he's like no one has to be [TS]

  one and sorry but Alexa is unbelievably fast like in the speed in which it [TS]

  processes kinda like what you say are so the one that's that's already a plus i [TS]

  think over sirree but to it's interesting it's really like it's hard [TS]

  to know [TS]

  eatin including Google i think google is actually still the best thing is still [TS]

  better than electoral Alexis clothes no voice recognition is get at the level [TS]

  where it can interpret everything and I kind of feel I feel this both kind of [TS]

  intellectually and also having used different devices that it's better to [TS]

  fail predictably than it is to fail unpredictably if that makes sense [TS]

  yeah I feel like a wax of em I can't think you're right I I you might be [TS]

  right but I feel like that that the only proper solution is is is AI that it [TS]

  recognizes so accurate that you'd do almost never get errors you know that it [TS]

  so it almost doesn't matter which way you start now whether you start on this [TS]

  side of failing predictably like a lecture or failing unpredictably like [TS]

  Siri because ultimately both of them still have there are like 1% solutions [TS]

  that are ninety-nine percent unfulfilled [TS]

  I agree but I it's weird because when I feel like we know whatever wax it [TS]

  doesn't understand me I feel like I did it wrong and I i would say ninety [TS]

  percent of time that's a bad thing for technology like technology should have [TS]

  empathy towards the user and to explain the user is a bad thing [TS]

  there's this article spinner on Twitter today about like someone losing their [TS]

  music and their account [TS]

  articles ionno you set it up that way like no that's Apple music fault that [TS]

  you should not make a used you should not enable the circumstances user does [TS]

  the wrong thing right but in this particular area when Alexa when I say [TS]

  the wrong words and Alexis doesn't get it [TS]

  I i try to figure out the right words like I feel like it it's that like I [TS]

  feel like alexis is really good so I want to make sure I get it right [TS]

  where's with Siri I get frustrated I in part of it is this eerie i feel like the [TS]

  series joking stuff in and being jocular is actually brilliantly bad for it [TS]

  because it it imparts a degree of accuracy and realism that is one that is [TS]

  just not true [TS]

  it's like over-promising and under-delivering for . before and oh I [TS]

  don't get that from when Alexa doesn't understand saying it's like sorry I [TS]

  don't know what you said but it's very straightforward right and I just it's [TS]

  different approaches and I i think the likes of one is better but she said [TS]

  something like I don't understand the question i think you said it right it's [TS]

  like it's like it i didn't make it talk about it it's like I understand your [TS]

  words I don't know what there's no III the way that that what she says [TS]

  I wish I knew exactly what the waist the way that she'll say I don't understand [TS]

  the question [TS]

  I i heard from you indicates both that either either she heard you word for [TS]

  word exactly and doesn't know how to answer that or maybe she didn't hear you [TS]

  correctly but either way she can't answer you and it you know what I mean [TS]

  that's it kind of an interesting way to phrase there I see what you mean and I [TS]

  have mixed feelings about series Joe clarity I and it does seem a little uh [TS]

  Napa like because apples actually taken in large part especially on iOS has [TS]

  taken the whimsy out of the visual you I you know that that one way of looking at [TS]

  the the the iOS 6 to iOS 7 transition you know you know everybody uses the [TS]

  word skeuomorphism but one way of looking at it another way of looking at [TS]

  a different world would be that they took a lot of the whimsy out of the UI [TS]

  that you know having wood paneling around game center or a leather you know [TS]

  rich Corinthian leather around your calendar for you find your friends or [TS]

  whatever it was ahead that the Corinthian leather is whimsical and that [TS]

  they took that out but Siri is chock full of whimsy [TS]

  yeah it it's weird because Apple has this brand about perfection and and [TS]

  there is an aspect where like a lot its we it's hard it's really weird to say [TS]

  that to the extent that Alexa makes it feel like it's my mistake is a good [TS]

  thing because again that goes against my instincts of our product design in [TS]

  general and that you should strive to make things obvious for the user but i [TS]

  think it works to its benefit like and I think it would serve apple the Apple [TS]

  brand better when series screws up i blame serie because Cirie has its [TS]

  over-promised and under-delivered frankly and and so this is just a very [TS]

  helpful so one Alexis voice recognition is much better than siri-like vastly [TS]

  better one [TS]

  I don't know about faster than Cirie yeah well for early [TS]

  well here's my test example for me first so one for me like the most presidents [TS]

  erie it to my daughter can trigger waxa without fail [TS]

  she's eight years old and she can rarely trigger Syria maybe ten percent of time [TS]

  three my four-year-old son can can command alexa maybe thirty percent of [TS]

  the time but he definitely can never ever trigger serie a in a in like the [TS]

  degree to its alexa can handle pour them into a mature [TS]

  yeah it's super impressive in my estimation all right maybe it is better [TS]

  i I don't know I i mod I told you this I i set the thing i've i've gone five days [TS]

  and only an election i haven't added any significant number of the third-party [TS]

  editions which we should talk to because i know that this having an api . is a [TS]

  huge difference and I know it's one of the reasons that your [TS]

  on the alexa side of the argument but I I i set it up and I me is when this when [TS]

  this query failed I immediately liked texted you who to complain like you're [TS]

  my text important for for the echo but I asked alexa went to the Golden State [TS]

  Warriors when's the next Golden State Warriors game and she said I don't [TS]

  understand the question [TS]

  and then i said when is the next warriors NBA game or something like that [TS]

  i took out the Golden State and maybe like added NBA and then she got the [TS]

  answer but I can't believe that you know and again i'm not saying that Siri [TS]

  doesn't have the exact same sort of asked the same thing one way and ask it [TS]

  a different way we're at a human would undeniably interpret the questions the [TS]

  exact same way [TS]

  no human being would you know think that was a different question even though you [TS]

  phrased it differently and it works one way it doesn't the other but to me Alexa [TS]

  has the same exact same short coming where I say golden state warriors and [TS]

  she doesn't know and I say warriors and she does and in fact that's even [TS]

  counterintuitive to me and I remember it because it would seem to me that saying [TS]

  Golden State Warriors is more specific i would go too far let's say that you just [TS]

  say Golden State and everybody knows it you know go i would say 99% of the use [TS]

  of the phrase Golden State these days is specifically about the warriors NBA team [TS]

  no I agree and and already be relaxing should be better it would mean I'm not [TS]

  gonna argue with that I do think though I'm gonna hit to shift the specific the [TS]

  debate to my court like part of this where this pays off though is the API [TS]

  aspect and so the API works on two ways one there's there's lots of services you [TS]

  can add like NBA scores or whether or source of stuff and it's all through the [TS]

  echo app and in a moment you can bitch about the upper deck lap but to the [TS]

  weight like the really exciting about echo is all the household stuff like [TS]

  like like light bulbs and and air conditioning and calling an uber and all [TS]

  this started off that is the fact that there's an API in this respect that the [TS]

  the relative simplicity of alexa and that it expects a certain order of words [TS]

  works to its advantage because yes that [TS]

  it's more of a burden on the user but it also makes it more viable to add on lots [TS]

  of extra services right what's the problem with Siri adding on extra apps [TS]

  that what's the nomenclature how do you know that you're asking Spotify supposed [TS]

  to ask Apple music right i can say Siri play taylor swift and it will play but [TS]

  if the Spotify down there to have what'swhat's the trigger for that and [TS]

  and alexa being simpler makes it more extendable and i'll tell you where we're [TS]

  actually building a new house and I'm gonna buy everything to work with alexa [TS]

  because there but there's lots of products into i'm confident it'll work [TS]

  yeah but electric ant can't keep Alexa can connect to Spotify can-can you can [TS]

  yes spot advise on alexa it is everything this is interesting where do [TS]

  you have to have so um you have to add it through the extras God menu should [TS]

  make it like an option on alexa and you also say like play x on spotify if you [TS]

  have if you say like play uptown funk it will try to play it on amazon prime [TS]

  music without any modifiers you say play uptown funk on spotify then we'll play [TS]

  it VA your spotify account is always spotify premium added the Spotify free [TS]

  account does not work huh that's interesting i didn't know that I don't [TS]

  have spotify so it doesn't do me much different [TS]

  I'll tell you what the one they might family has been very very non plus x by [TS]

  the echo and alexa until last night when we started playing music and then it [TS]

  actually that was the first thing that that really clicked where we could and [TS]

  it seemed you know why I don't know that we stomped amazon prime music amazon [TS]

  prime music seems to have an awful lot of music we ever everything we were [TS]

  looking for [TS]

  I guess the one thing we have is a live song we wanted to play it's a family [TS]

  favorite one of my favorites ages heat of the moment and when you ask Alexa to [TS]

  play it all chill play is a live recording and it was it [TS]

  we couldn't figure out a way to force her to play the studio recording [TS]

  yes your eye doesn't have it [TS]

  yeah it might be it's fascinating like what like what Mike like my kids will [TS]

  walk in the door and immediately issue a command to alexa like it's remarkable [TS]

  and and I don't know I i think this extendibility and again this just take [TS]

  this full circle like at all this podcast is actually integrated in if the [TS]

  iphone is slowing growth like the biggest opportunity for Apple to grow [TS]

  its services if they want to grow in services I would argue they have to [TS]

  think about the organization and how they you know whether that like they [TS]

  should kind of bifurcate it and by extension if they were to be effective [TS]

  in services it entails enabling ecosystems and enabling these sort of [TS]

  plug-in play sort of things and it's gonna it's a challenge for apple and [TS]

  this gets like real existential questions about companies and how you [TS]

  build them and how do you balance culture versus what your opportunities [TS]

  are and it's fasting this is honestly going to be I think the next five years [TS]

  are our next two years or maybe some of those absolutely fascinating years when [TS]

  it comes to think about apple in their place in the world going forward so I [TS]

  I'm it's not gonna be great [TS]

  it's interesting thing about Syria AP is because Siri is no longer knew I mean [TS]

  series 2011 debuted 2011 so I mean that I know it's five years almost almost [TS]

  five years is for at least four and a half and you know i think a lot of us i [TS]

  thought you know an API was inevitable [TS]

  it's just of course you know and much like the way that the iphone ship [TS]

  without third-party apps and then it came you know that Syria is obviously [TS]

  rougher around the edges than the iphone was but give it some time and there will [TS]

  be an API but now here we are in 2016 and still no api i would love it I i [TS]

  know a lot of developers would too but at this point if it's like this WWDC in [TS]

  six weeks comes and passes without any mention of assyria API you really i [TS]

  really have to start thinking that Apple strategy with Syria is that it's its [TS]

  proprietary and first part party only [TS]

  yeah it's interesting when I mean that makes sense I guess if you want to and [TS]

  if you want to put like I said it keeps mrs. crabapple music and Cirie is the [TS]

  reason I'm still subscribed Apple music yeah into nursing [TS]

  so anything else you want to talk about then we gotta wrap up in going forever [TS]

  well I what's the record i think the Syracuse that record right now we're at [TS]

  two minutes and 51 seconds so for 22 hours in between meddling anybody's [TS]

  gonna break [TS]

  Syracuse's record Syracuse and I think the episode syracuse was me look at six [TS]

  hours 47 minutes [TS]

  nick is a 60 days not six hours we will get out a hard limit hard limit at seven [TS]

  so we wrapped up its six hours 47 minutes we go and be a court according [TS]

  to talk about your podcast last week [TS]

  yeah I've always loved to talk NBA [TS]

  yeah if I mean how did use watch that that the the San Antonio okc ending that [TS]

  last 13 seconds i did that so San Antonio was wait did however this is the [TS]

  one where dion Waiters soft manageable right for him out and out of opposition [TS]

  it was no one has ever the roughs at the instant the best part is the educated [TS]

  the rest issued an endgame report or they interviewed them they're like one [TS]

  we missed the call it should benefit the file to we've never seen before her [TS]

  right felt like it was just totally understandable right breath a wrestling [TS]

  is almost a lot of anticipating the stuff and with something happens you've [TS]

  never seen before and you're in the heat of the moment there's so much going on [TS]

  like you can't you don't even think to pull your was like what the hell is your [TS]

  I mean you're a bit you're a die-hard NBA fan I used to be more of a [TS]

  basketball fan I've really got into it I feel like just because I feel like the [TS]

  league has his is having a resurgence in that there's a lot of interesting stuff [TS]

  going on and I said this on the show many times before a lot of times in the [TS]

  context of baseball which is still my favorite sport but that that I my friend [TS]

  Matt wang Matt Matt's listen and listen to the show but he'll appreciate that I [TS]

  call him out but his basic idea is that there's two types of sports fans [TS]

  fundamentally story faint story [TS]

  people & stats people and that story people can still appreciate stats and [TS]

  stats people's can still get into the stories but there's you know [TS]

  fundamentally that's there's one of the other is the reason you love sports and [TS]

  I'm a story person and I to me the authorities in the NBA right now or but [TS]

  as good as they've ever been there it's like almost back to the heyday in the [TS]

  eighties and and jordan aero nineties and part of alegria is it's just that [TS]

  the way that the personalities of the superstars are so different you know [TS]

  LeBron and and steph curry are such different players it's that makes for a [TS]

  compelling narrative and you've got Tim Tim Duncan wrapping up his career etc [TS]

  but anyway by one of my observations i just want to see if you agree is that [TS]

  the refereeing in the playoffs so far has aired almost game-to-game on the [TS]

  side of no calls like you can at the end of a game you can just shoot a guy with [TS]

  a gun and you're not going to get called for a foul [TS]

  so one of my guilty pleasures the battle part of a charged cell which is like [TS]

  this ridiculous sports oxxo rope from Miami but he is I follow my twitter ID [TS]

  he tweeted during that okc sad to do things like I think I saw machete under [TS]

  the basket like it which was ridiculous but it captured like that last play like [TS]

  there was so much malfeasant is happening on the court in a span of 30 [TS]

  seconds yeah it looks like a playground game you know like it just it really [TS]

  looked like a playground game that had gotten out of hand and it was like [TS]

  there's got to be a file somewhere like if you miss a call you miss a call but [TS]

  how can you miss all of them up so it it was so great was so great because like [TS]

  one there was aspects of that play that captured everything about both teams [TS]

  like okc ran a miserable inbounds play and turn the ball over and yet they yet [TS]

  they their defense was incredible on that plate the fact that Steven Adams [TS]

  blocked or or contested like three different Spurs shot opportunities and [TS]

  they and like and that's okay see right they suck at like organized basketball [TS]

  but they're so overwhelming athletically that they make up for it and and and it [TS]

  was great and there's all the band Twitter and there's all the vines the [TS]

  way the NBA has [TS]

  has been like post what you want on youtube post you want twitter-like all [TS]

  that sort of stuff it's so forward-thinking and his mba twitter is [TS]

  like the perfect manifestation of what Twitter could be like when you follow [TS]

  the right unit in the NBA Twitter and you follow the right folks and like all [TS]

  the debate and all the jokes and all the memes it's incredibly it isn't it to [TS]

  watch the NBA game with mba Twitter it is shamefully the MV MV app doesn't [TS]

  handle the split screen on the ipad which is a bummer but like the ipad is [TS]

  awesome exhume watch the game and have the twitter on the side it's it's really [TS]

  is a revolutionary sort of experience and it really is like the best [TS]

  manifestation of Twitter and kind of sports going forward yeah for anybody is [TS]

  like me like my favorite us pro sport is baseball my second-favorite now is [TS]

  probably the NBA definitely NBA and I've long resented this popularity of the NFL [TS]

  but the overwhelming popularity the NFL to me the advantage is is it makes the [TS]

  other leagues a little bit more I think liberal with their or or [TS]

  forward-thinking with the social media you know like i know that MLB was you [TS]

  know like when meerkat and periscope came out they were like yeah sure you [TS]

  know do it you know like if any you know there's no way that there they just say [TS]

  recognize the truth which is that there's no way that anybody watching the [TS]

  periscope of the baseball game from however good your seat is is ever going [TS]

  to be better than watching the actual broadcast so just do it and if you catch [TS]

  something cool you know share it [TS]

  I definitely think that it's an advantage to be a fan of the not [TS]

  preeminent league because that the NFL is way more stick up the butt about [TS]

  stuff like that [TS]

  yeah i'll make sure let's not get specific big picture how do you see the [TS]

  NBA Playoffs to turn out you think what do you think they're going to do with [TS]

  steph curry I think they're going to sell i think they're gonna sit him until [TS]

  until they have two losses in this series and I don't think they're going [TS]

  to have two losses in this series so I don't think we're going to see Steph [TS]

  Curry play until the next series [TS]

  yeah i will tell you i love what this kind of . is doing for the reputation of [TS]

  draymond Green like he [TS]

  that game he's incredible player he really is that said there's an argument [TS]

  he said it's curry is ready like better for him to knock [TS]

  he's gonna be rusty you saw him in the game it's the Rockets better from knock [TS]

  the rust off against the Blazers you know knock the rust off against against [TS]

  the Spurs because you lose one game in oracle and like your backs against the [TS]

  wall [TS]

  yeah and so that i don't know like there's a great article by Tim Grover by [TS]

  George trainer talking about the fact that he actually believes that crease [TS]

  knee injury was caused by his ankle [TS]

  yeah i saw an article he was he was probably wearing a very brace which [TS]

  transferred the kinect injury up to connect energy of the slip up to his [TS]

  knee [TS]

  yep I which makes makes a ton of sense at the same time like you know you gotta [TS]

  knock off the rust at some point in and if they can have the Blazers arguably [TS]

  better to do it there [TS]

  yeah that maybe he should yeah I i could see that but even so I don't I still [TS]

  don't think he's gonna play Saturday no matter what I say and angry and so maybe [TS]

  they'll let him knock the rust off in game 4 if being a win or lose but you [TS]

  know i I really don't think they're gonna learn play play on Saturday [TS]

  ya know i think in ideally they bring him back and he can come in like maybe [TS]

  get spent units is that you don't want him covering will write more great [TS]

  player and he's going to force you into these really harsh lateral movements and [TS]

  hopefully they can use it back in if he's healthy I think Golden State still [TS]

  rolling favorite I think they're bad match for San Antonio like they just san [TS]

  antonio i think it's going to overtime with those two great shooting guards in [TS]

  supporting the pick-and-roll uh if he's not healthy though the the San Antonio [TS]

  is danny green his shot the three terribly all year and he's been good the [TS]

  last couple games if he is knocking down that three they're there they're a tough [TS]

  team are so I hope because i'm a story guy here's how I hope it played out i [TS]

  hope its Golden State vs san antonio in the west and it just like you know [TS]

  you've got a new podcast with a friend of the show man released dedicated a [TS]

  basketball technical foul put a link to an image [TS]

  John Oates good podcast i love them and you guys have mentioned this that it [TS]

  what an amazing is he being mean better story in the East if it is LeBron James [TS]

  and the Cavs against the miami heat and it would be awesome like it'd be awesome [TS]

  I'm sorry if you're like a Toronto fan you know I mean I know you're not gonna [TS]

  root for Miami but I mean you gotta realize that everybody else is repeating [TS]

  from miami vs the Cavaliers because man that it's playoff game lebron on the [TS]

  road playing in miami in a playoff game for the eastern especially because like [TS]

  there's still like there are still questions about lebron's kind of mental [TS]

  strength right right i mean like he's had two playoff series against Boston [TS]

  and against dallas where he kind of melted down mentally and if he's going [TS]

  up against his old teammates and they're getting his head like you [TS]

  Cleveland's the better team but you can envision a possibility where Miami wins [TS]

  games they sent and join weight has been amazing these playoffs like it yeah he's [TS]

  got that look like the elder statesman who is in the last gasp of his like [TS]

  preeminence athletically and but but can still but his smarts compensate for it [TS]

  right it's sort of like look like late you're Jordan on the balls you know [TS]

  they'll you can tell you can tell he's lost a step but our half a step but he [TS]

  makes up for the half step mentally like that have been a great example is the [TS]

  time Jordin stole the ball from Malone Malone [TS]

  yeah it's just is he just knew he just see he knew exactly what Malone is gonna [TS]

  do in his hand was there we gotta wrap up but the other thing too is you [TS]

  because you don't watch baseball attitude i'll put this in the show notes [TS]

  but you know klay Thompson speaking of the Warriors you know his brothers a [TS]

  baseball player right yeah why the reason I know about is because I think [TS]

  he says only his press conference after recently about his brother is crushed [TS]

  the ball well his brother is a trace thompson place for the Dodgers and the [TS]

  Dodgers were playing the tampa bay rays which is interesting because its inner [TS]

  League Baseball in interleague this did you don't play american national lead in [TS]

  other than the rivals that are in the same town you don't play over here so [TS]

  the Dodgers hadn't been to [TS]

  tampa bay since like $MONTH 2007 so it's a rare thing for the Dodgers to be [TS]

  playing in Tampa Bay and Tampa Bay has the worst baseball stadium in ever in [TS]

  Major League Baseball it's this horrible dome to call Tropicana Field Paula the [TS]

  fastest and I went there last year just to see it because they get the good [TS]

  they've got a closing soon it's horrible it's a dome it is ugly it it smells bad [TS]

  smells like that like like you're in like a sam's club or something like that [TS]

  and it it's actually physically it should be illegal it's like that the [TS]

  dome isn't high enough so balls get caught up in the rafters all the time [TS]

  and there's all sorts of rules and there's like it different here the the [TS]

  what I call the field rules are so it couldn't there's like this whole book of [TS]

  rules of football hits this rafter it's in place so you can hit it and then if a [TS]

  guy catches it it's an out and if it hits these rafters this this or this [TS]

  it's a home run and so his brother had alcohol that disappeared it just went up [TS]

  into the rafters and never came down and but it was the rule the whole and [TS]

  properly because it would have been over the fence in any other stadium but it [TS]

  just disappeared which is it just all even in their crap field almost never [TS]

  happens that the ball just doesn't come down and the next day he wanted to go up [TS]

  and find it he wanted to see if he can go up and find it in the rafters and he [TS]

  wasn't allowed to because he was told that they're they're not safe [TS]

  the field is so janky that they thought that if if he went up there and maybe [TS]

  the rafters will collapse [TS]

  I thought that was a funny story and a nice crossover between baseball [TS]

  basketball [TS]

  alright let's wrap it out of baseball Ben Thompson we make we cross the [TS]

  three-hour mark i feel i think that's the first time you've crossed through [TS]

  our barks I always a pleasure to see what comes out in the editing but yeah [TS]

  probably haha your excellent [TS]

  daily update at protector II is what's the website startech.com yes it was very [TS]

  calm has one free article week and then uh I will mail you something [TS]

  an additional three days a week it's well worth it is your cash [TS]

  honestly anybody who enjoys been on the show it is it [TS]

  enormously worth the money it's a great value [TS]

  I you can find him on twitter is your wedding now Ben Thompson up a pen [TS]

  Thompson had been Thompson used to have a goofy name right i did add monk been [TS]

  tamil ftnt which is which is now I still unfortunately still in the account it's [TS]

  funny when you change your twitter name Twitter doesn't like reserve your old [TS]

  name right uh that was my friend for a long time I is which I now still control [TS]

  but I don't tweet from it anymore [TS]

  I and the new the new well you got the exponent FM which is a podcast is more [TS]

  in line with the talk show you know tech talking about tech and stuff like that [TS]

  exponent . em but more importantly for this playoff stretch you've got the [TS]

  technical foul podcast with the Manton and that's at would use a technical foul [TS]

  . mmm yup technophile FM get it [TS]

  technical foul because they're they're like to tech guys yeah and if in case [TS]

  you can get it we capitalized tck which you harshly criticized for probably [TS]

  rightly on our factory looks like they're terrible that did stop that and [TS]

  are my thanks 2108 we just passed we just past the stop the stop line my rank [TS]

  upset to our sponsors a automatic that connected car dingus wealthfront put all [TS]

  your investment in there make make lots of money and audible.com the audiobook [TS]

  company my thanks to you thanks [TS]