The Talk Show

00:00:00 ◼   ► I have a good eye i told you i've told you before we started the show I have a [TS]

00:00:02 ◼   ► sodastream stories out of nowhere and I here so that it's psychoanalyze me I'm [TS]

00:00:07 ◼   ► on your couch bend your your the the psychoanalyst so eat everything on texts [TS]

00:00:14 ◼   ► that i was looking for a drink with recommendations for for the pop gasps [TS]

00:00:18 ◼   ► and I decided to go with a sodastream and scotch in into separate classes I [TS]

00:00:22 ◼   ► drink my Scotch straight to be clear longtime listeners of the show know that [TS]

00:00:26 ◼   ► i'm i'm a firm believer that all you need to be successful and in today's [TS]

00:00:29 ◼   ► world you need three things you need [TS]

00:00:33 ◼   ► well actually maybe my three things have changed but I forget but right now i [TS]

00:00:37 ◼   ► would say the three things you need is you need you need good coffee rust way [TS]

00:00:41 ◼   ► to make coffee [TS]

00:00:42 ◼   ► he's got to be real fussy about it like real good coffee [TS]

00:00:47 ◼   ► you need highly carbonated water and the only way to get it it's in my opinion is [TS]

00:00:53 ◼   ► that on your own [TS]

00:00:54 ◼   ► sodastream machine so you can you can carbonate your own water and you need a [TS]

00:00:58 ◼   ► clicky keyboard that's those are my three keys to success that if he asked [TS]

00:01:02 ◼   ► me why during fireball and and this podcaster doing well it's that i have a [TS]

00:01:07 ◼   ► funny way to make good coffee [TS]

00:01:10 ◼   ► I've sodastream and I and super carbonated water and I have very clicky [TS]

00:01:14 ◼   ► keyboard i have an apple extended keyboard to here's the problem the [TS]

00:01:19 ◼   ► problem is about a week ago my current carbonation canister my soda stream ran [TS]

00:01:28 ◼   ► attic of of co2 and so it's always so demoralizing that happens it's just like [TS]

00:01:35 ◼   ► the little the little pit into the water [TS]

00:01:37 ◼   ► well here's my m-my my strategy for years I mean years now has been that i [TS]

00:01:43 ◼   ► have four canisters of co2 and when three get empty i go to there's a [TS]

00:01:51 ◼   ► william sonoma crosstown right in center city philadelphia i take the three empty [TS]

00:01:57 ◼   ► ones to to the williams-sonoma I exchange them you get like a discount [TS]

00:02:02 ◼   ► when you give them the empties and you can buy new ones so i always buy 32 time [TS]

00:02:07 ◼   ► but then i have my fourth that's in the canister so i don't have to [TS]

00:02:11 ◼   ► no psych them out well here's the thing I I my thing ran out last week and I've [TS]

00:02:15 ◼   ► had this thing for years and I went down to where I keep the empties down in our [TS]

00:02:19 ◼   ► bottom floor but it's not really a basement sort of the bottom floor and [TS]

00:02:23 ◼   ► they weren't there [TS]

00:02:24 ◼   ► I don't know where I don't know where the hell my other ones are iike and I [TS]

00:02:27 ◼   ► spent all day and i asked i asked Amy I i we looked at I looked everywhere [TS]

00:02:33 ◼   ► I don't know where the hell I put my I don't know what happened at some point [TS]

00:02:37 ◼   ► in the last few weeks or months i had either me or I suspect quite frankly my [TS]

00:02:44 ◼   ► wife moved my my refill canisters and I don't know where the hell they are so I [TS]

00:02:53 ◼   ► I couldn't make fizzy water and so I was stuck buying what i did is i started [TS]

00:02:59 ◼   ► buying like pellegrino and and some perrier like I even forget like I'm so [TS]

00:03:04 ◼   ► used to make my own i forget which I like better [TS]

00:03:07 ◼   ► that's why do I by the I i have the 24 pack . costco that I keep for like car [TS]

00:03:13 ◼   ► rides and and in case I run out [TS]

00:03:16 ◼   ► yeah I think I like Perry better than Pellegrini I think Perry aids a little [TS]

00:03:19 ◼   ► bit more bite to it but either way I but then I'd run out and I couldn't make [TS]

00:03:23 ◼   ► more and I was dehydrated [TS]

00:03:25 ◼   ► I mean but I was dehydrated because i cannot drink flatwater it's just awful [TS]

00:03:31 ◼   ► and here the days are going by and I'm dehydrated and are miserable and I'm [TS]

00:03:39 ◼   ► even when I have the stuff in the house even when I have like Perry or whatever [TS]

00:03:42 ◼   ► i'm unhappy with it because it's nowhere near carbonated enough for my taste and [TS]

00:03:47 ◼   ► then I realized just as literally yesterday I realized you know what I [TS]

00:03:50 ◼   ► could just go to the goddamn william sonoma and buy a couple more canisters [TS]

00:03:54 ◼   ► of the stuff and if and when I find the ones that are somewhere in my house i'll [TS]

00:04:01 ◼   ► use them eventually too and I can still take even though i'll have more empty [TS]

00:04:07 ◼   ► canisters then I need i'll just take them all but it doesn't [TS]

00:04:11 ◼   ► why did it take me a week that's my question why did it take me a week to [TS]

00:04:14 ◼   ► realize i can just go there and and by the goddamn refills that I need [TS]

00:04:20 ◼   ► why did I make myself miserable for [TS]

00:04:24 ◼   ► then I laughed because i have done the exact same thing I will get to so here [TS]

00:04:28 ◼   ► you you'll be used by the department store i'll get to the park department [TS]

00:04:31 ◼   ► store like all sure I want to get more canisters but forgot to bring it and I [TS]

00:04:35 ◼   ► don't buy it and then height [TS]

00:04:37 ◼   ► I don't have any car eating canisters it's totally illogical and I do the [TS]

00:04:42 ◼   ► exact same thing i just i somehow convinced myself that I need the 141 [TS]

00:04:47 ◼   ► exchange to to get the refills when I don't I don't I didn't need that I just [TS]

00:04:53 ◼   ► went there with the one refill that I had because of the one that was you know [TS]

00:04:57 ◼   ► that I just emptied and and it i will send the canisters know I know and my [TS]

00:05:04 ◼   ► wife said you know as soon as you come home you're going to find that those [TS]

00:05:07 ◼   ► canisters and and I said yeah he was waiting he was waiting for you to leave [TS]

00:05:10 ◼   ► and then she was gonna smuggle them back to the self where they were so you would [TS]

00:05:14 ◼   ► so often find them right well that seems like the Murphy's Law way that it would [TS]

00:05:18 ◼   ► roll but it did not actually happen I'd i still have no idea where the hell that [TS]

00:05:21 ◼   ► the canisters are if anybody knows where my extra canisters are please please [TS]

00:05:25 ◼   ► tweet me or send me an email [TS]

00:05:28 ◼   ► it occurs to me it does occur to me because it's it's like having a [TS]

00:05:37 ◼   ► superpower having as many Twitter followers as I have and you know i think [TS]

00:05:42 ◼   ► you're in the same boat [TS]

00:05:43 ◼   ► it can be a superpower like on the last episode with the guy English when I was [TS]

00:05:49 ◼   ► wondering what the hell you probably don't remember this because you don't [TS]

00:05:52 ◼   ► think you're a Mac user back then but i was wondering about there was this [TS]

00:05:56 ◼   ► chooser extension for the classic mac OS that if you had a local talk network if [TS]

00:06:01 ◼   ► you ever if other people had this chooser extension you could effectively [TS]

00:06:06 ◼   ► show you can like chat to them you could eat it if we both had it i could look [TS]

00:06:12 ◼   ► your machine if I knew and I knew your max name I could send you a message so [TS]

00:06:18 ◼   ► it was effectively like instant messaging over the local talk network [TS]

00:06:22 ◼   ► back in the very early nineties and i could not remember the name of the [TS]

00:06:26 ◼   ► chooser extension and googling for anything like pre-google is very [TS]

00:06:33 ◼   ► difficult very difficult and and googling for this particular problem [TS]

00:06:37 ◼   ► really and unless there's some better way to phrase it there's a common word [TS]

00:06:41 ◼   ► involved yeah yeah it doesn't give you the answer and so I asked on Twitter and [TS]

00:06:47 ◼   ► within like five minutes somebody was you know had the answer was called [TS]

00:06:51 ◼   ► broadcast and as soon as they said broadcast I was like that's it and then [TS]

00:06:54 ◼   ► somebody even posted screenshots of it which is amazing because if you type [TS]

00:06:58 ◼   ► broadcast chooser extension classic mac OS and Google you still don't get the [TS]

00:07:03 ◼   ► screenshots in there like image search [TS]

00:07:05 ◼   ► it's it's literally on google ball even if you know the name of it but asking on [TS]

00:07:11 ◼   ► Twitter got me the answer and i have to say it does occur it often occurs to me [TS]

00:07:16 ◼   ► in situations like what i'm looking for the SodaStream of my house like I should [TS]

00:07:20 ◼   ► ask Twitter and then I realized nobody [TS]

00:07:23 ◼   ► twitter is going to be able to help me on this [TS]

00:07:26 ◼   ► it is it is with me [TS]

00:07:29 ◼   ► yeah it's um I yeah it's funny I've ever really that is kind of that today I was [TS]

00:07:35 ◼   ► I was not about the mini microsoft remember that guy [TS]

00:07:38 ◼   ► oh yeah it was great well it's great yeah he's kind of stopped right yet know [TS]

00:07:44 ◼   ► it that's why i asked these silly i don't know why the guide to sell occur [TS]

00:07:47 ◼   ► to me so i just threw it on Twitter what happened many microsoft and I heard from [TS]

00:07:51 ◼   ► someone actually kind of off the record that said that they he left microsoft it [TS]

00:07:56 ◼   ► easy enjoy was but I'm and of course the joke is you know cuz you want you know [TS]

00:08:00 ◼   ► he piped down on the time seems nasty was always a joke that Steven Sinofsky [TS]

00:08:04 ◼   ► was actually uh was actually me microsoft see he was very complimentary [TS]

00:08:09 ◼   ► of sandusky in general and you know very anti very anti bomber arm so is actually [TS]

00:08:15 ◼   ► this is it's not be jumping on the threat is like up you got me but I'm [TS]

00:08:18 ◼   ► those but actually funny the funny sketches always was was a contract [TS]

00:08:23 ◼   ► counter notions are our anonymous friend where he said he's now known as many [TS]

00:08:27 ◼   ► amazon which is probably true given that he was that it wasn't microsoft but yeah [TS]

00:08:34 ◼   ► that that's like the most inside of love of both the Seattle and tech jokes as [TS]

00:08:38 ◼   ► you can get many was great [TS]

00:08:42 ◼   ► yeah he used to and it was he [TS]

00:08:47 ◼   ► it looks so beautiful too because he'd spell microsoft with this [TS]

00:08:51 ◼   ► quote msft so is mi ni msft and somehow like that like eight character named it [TS]

00:09:02 ◼   ► looked very balanced to me and and he was a guy for years who ran a blog where [TS]

00:09:06 ◼   ► he and I think I don't think anybody disputes that he actually worked there [TS]

00:09:11 ◼   ► I mean you can't he was anonymous obviously or pseudonymous would be a [TS]

00:09:14 ◼   ► better way but he was like a pseudonymous apple or not Apple [TS]

00:09:18 ◼   ► Microsoft long time Microsoft employee who was a critic of the late bomber era [TS]

00:09:26 ◼   ► but he was a critical loved microsoft right like that that's what made it so [TS]

00:09:33 ◼   ► compelling and saw saw tremendous potential there and I think in hindsight [TS]

00:09:38 ◼   ► was largely proven correct that what he saw as folly you know and I think folly [TS]

00:09:45 ◼   ► is a good way to put it turned out to be correct [TS]

00:09:49 ◼   ► yeah had no absolutely adore the end and the other thing that was amazing about [TS]

00:09:56 ◼   ► it too was he had these unbelievable comment threads and always post because [TS]

00:10:00 ◼   ► everyone at Microsoft read it [TS]

00:10:01 ◼   ► yeah and so he would have these thousand comment long posts that up like debating [TS]

00:10:07 ◼   ► stuff going back and forth like it was you [TS]

00:10:09 ◼   ► I mean he's slow down like me the site still there it's it's it's many msft dot [TS]

00:10:13 ◼   ► blog spot.com but but I mean at the time especially when he's posting regularly [TS]

00:10:19 ◼   ► like it was like the outlet for for like Microsoft inks and complaints and all [TS]

00:10:23 ◼   ► that sort of stuff [TS]

00:10:24 ◼   ► it was really something else yeah yeah let's imagine we have that originally [TS]

00:10:28 ◼   ► had it so good at Apple doing that like how how how many black ops would they [TS]

00:10:33 ◼   ► bring in to find out who the guy was or the gal was or whatever it might be I [TS]

00:10:38 ◼   ► don't think I you know that's interesting i know that some people [TS]

00:10:41 ◼   ► think that I i wonder if they would I mean my understanding i know that that [TS]

00:10:48 ◼   ► that off the cuff of a lot of people seem to think that Apple does what would [TS]

00:10:55 ◼   ► you call it counter espionage and you know but they don't that Apple does not [TS]

00:11:04 ◼   ► I really am i understanding i mean i can't prove it but my understanding is [TS]

00:11:10 ◼   ► that apple doesn't really have like anybody inside who like investigates [TS]

00:11:17 ◼   ► leaks or anything like that that they don't and specifically they don't [TS]

00:11:21 ◼   ► because they think that if it ever leaked that they have a team that [TS]

00:11:26 ◼   ► investigates leaks it would be the wood so so bad PR why's that it would be [TS]

00:11:31 ◼   ► worse than the actual leaks and that the only reason that so little tends to leak [TS]

00:11:35 ◼   ► from apple is really really even the avian as your head current head count [TS]

00:11:40 ◼   ► grows it's literally just the internal culture of people who work here don't [TS]

00:11:45 ◼   ► leave [TS]

00:11:46 ◼   ► yeah wait I'll tell you to and on the first day on the orientation like it [TS]

00:11:51 ◼   ► like this orientation is very upbeat and all the great things like Apple and [TS]

00:11:55 ◼   ► history of blah blah and then like this very stern looking security woman came [TS]

00:12:00 ◼   ► in and like I I'm television or a bunch of interns when i was there so it's like [TS]

00:12:04 ◼   ► we're all kind of young impressionable anyway but she put the holy fear of God [TS]

00:12:09 ◼   ► in you like it was incredible it was it was it was delightful looking at it from [TS]

00:12:13 ◼   ► the outside us today they're like oh crap i will never leaked anything [TS]

00:12:16 ◼   ► everything it was it was it was awesome i remember her big example was ifo apple [TS]

00:12:24 ◼   ► store I think like the old the old the old dog that that tracked apple stores [TS]

00:12:28 ◼   ► and she was like yeah i can remember what the context was remember that blog [TS]

00:12:33 ◼   ► was one of the examples she had but yeah it was something else but you know I [TS]

00:12:38 ◼   ► agree obviously a horse presentations that could last that long it is [TS]

00:12:41 ◼   ► absolutely a cultural cultural thing and yeah it's like they're remember going [TS]

00:12:48 ◼   ► into an office and like my first couple days and someone like and I was kind of [TS]

00:12:53 ◼   ► jarred that they didn't hold the door open for me but like that would that's [TS]

00:12:57 ◼   ► just the way that just you don't you don't do that right because you don't [TS]

00:13:01 ◼   ► know they don't have to imagine right right you don't know there's always is [TS]

00:13:05 ◼   ► totally a thing [TS]

00:13:06 ◼   ► yeah right you don't know that the guy behind you actually has the credentials [TS]

00:13:10 ◼   ► to come in right you know that the guy right especially busy because that [TS]

00:13:13 ◼   ► different different parts of the Apple will be [TS]

00:13:18 ◼   ► you like specified by the battle even though you have an apple bad you can't [TS]

00:13:20 ◼   ► necessarily get into all parts of apple right so it the guy who wrote iphone [TS]

00:13:26 ◼   ► apple store you know he died recently [TS]

00:13:28 ◼   ► yeah it's very very sad i just think about that one of his name was Gary [TS]

00:13:32 ◼   ► Allan about putting in the show notes but it was a good site and and it's [TS]

00:13:36 ◼   ► funny because a lot of people i noticed i mean i wasn't like it wasn't like you [TS]

00:13:41 ◼   ► know first thing I do in the morning is check i have so apple store but you know [TS]

00:13:45 ◼   ► in the racket that i'm in i obviously you know what come across it and it [TS]

00:13:49 ◼   ► occurred to me at one point that boy fo apple store is really died down i wonder [TS]

00:13:52 ◼   ► if the guy is sort of just lost his interest in it or it is you know now the [TS]

00:13:56 ◼   ► stores have rolled out worldwide is it just not interesting and it turned out [TS]

00:14:01 ◼   ► it was you know he was he was ill and I think he died and we look at last fall I [TS]

00:14:08 ◼   ► just like yeah you know you know what's it's got some is within the site's down [TS]

00:14:11 ◼   ► it's like it's a bummer it's just yeah back later yeah dude it is only I [TS]

00:14:16 ◼   ► suddenly feel very mortal both because one were like we're both getting older [TS]

00:14:20 ◼   ► too we're talking about death and three like making my living on the web and [TS]

00:14:24 ◼   ► going to this guy's website that he poured his life into and there's nothing [TS]

00:14:27 ◼   ► there is like not really bummed out i think he's written about it publicly but [TS]

00:14:31 ◼   ► my pal and in a long time blogger at waxy Doric and ebay Oh has you know [TS]

00:14:36 ◼   ► thought about this for a long time in years ago that that there should be some [TS]

00:14:42 ◼   ► sort of you know his ideas to somehow set up some kind of a trust where people [TS]

00:14:48 ◼   ► with websites can you know paper them [TS]

00:14:52 ◼   ► yeah you'd somehow somehow set up a trust where and and some sort of and [TS]

00:14:57 ◼   ► like a trusted organization where you would put you know trust them with the [TS]

00:15:01 ◼   ► credentials for your website and so that you can you know with some sort of a [TS]

00:15:09 ◼   ► modicum of of financial backing that to keep websites up in perpetuity after you [TS]

00:15:16 ◼   ► know Bobby you know let's face it we're all gonna die eventually [TS]

00:15:19 ◼   ► now that everything is good you know what's awesome is something like that [TS]

00:15:23 ◼   ► that wordpress or whoever should think about like there's gonna be a button [TS]

00:15:26 ◼   ► like export as HTML and like actually I'd work [TS]

00:15:31 ◼   ► we're supposed to do this I'll talk to Matt about it like imagine being able to [TS]

00:15:35 ◼   ► have it in a way where ever you can express eyes just HTML they're not [TS]

00:15:39 ◼   ► rendering every time does not take any computer resources it's super [TS]

00:15:41 ◼   ► lightweight and yet you put down it won't be that much honestly to be able [TS]

00:15:46 ◼   ► to serve a static web page for for a very long time I think in the long run [TS]

00:15:51 ◼   ► the biggest expense honestly would be the keeping the domain name registry [TS]

00:15:56 ◼   ► uh yeah I think that's exactly and as you know even if it's only six seven [TS]

00:16:00 ◼   ► bucks a year in the long run for us statically rendered version of daring [TS]

00:16:05 ◼   ► fireball and especially as time goes on let's face it but you know let's just [TS]

00:16:08 ◼   ► say a hundred years from now then it's not gonna be a lot of traffic on this [TS]

00:16:12 ◼   ► rocky and you get their way [TS]

00:16:16 ◼   ► this guy sounds a little narcissistic when you put it that way [TS]

00:16:19 ◼   ► who's gonna be reading the other year 2100 let me see what sir TechRadar [TS]

00:16:22 ◼   ► comments say about this right but at least but I would like to think that it [TS]

00:16:26 ◼   ► will still be there for people to refer to and that somebody who you know who [TS]

00:16:32 ◼   ► wants to refer to it that they can still point to the URL and it will still [TS]

00:16:36 ◼   ► respond this way i'll put the the i think i said this last was your podcast [TS]

00:16:41 ◼   ► to have a recurring donation setup for the internet archive and like it's [TS]

00:16:46 ◼   ► something I would counsel everyone to do because that is such an unbelievable [TS]

00:16:49 ◼   ► resources to close like we have yeah it is an end and they do they do like [TS]

00:16:55 ◼   ► really important work and I use it a lot i use a lot for for my for researching [TS]

00:16:59 ◼   ► stuff because stuff disappears all the time like you'll especially when you [TS]

00:17:03 ◼   ► talk about the pretty cool stuff you're trying to find stuff back in the day you [TS]

00:17:06 ◼   ► find that you find a link to you know at the end of the week is what you need [TS]

00:17:09 ◼   ► that crap it's gone and then your internet archive is there so yeah I set [TS]

00:17:12 ◼   ► it up just an automatic donation every single month because you need one [TS]

00:17:17 ◼   ► it's awesome to it's important and three it's like super important to my work so [TS]

00:17:21 ◼   ► yeah it is [TS]

00:17:24 ◼   ► I've said this to people multiple times and it's one of those things ugh i'll [TS]

00:17:27 ◼   ► get to someday but it's one of those things where if I had like an intern or [TS]

00:17:31 ◼   ► an employee or something but it is astoundingly depressing how if you go [TS]

00:17:39 ◼   ► back to like 2004 and $YEAR which was the first year i had [TS]

00:17:43 ◼   ► the linked list feature on daring fireball where I'd link two things on a [TS]

00:17:47 ◼   ► daily basis it's absolutely astounding how many of those links are 40 force at [TS]

00:17:53 ◼   ► this point and Katya I've talked about this like his cock has been doing his [TS]

00:17:57 ◼   ► thing since like $MONTH 1998 it if you go back to the earlier I mean that the [TS]

00:18:01 ◼   ► longer you go back it's like almost exponential if you go back to the [TS]

00:18:04 ◼   ► earlier year the earliest years of cocky it's it's even worse it's like the [TS]

00:18:08 ◼   ► earlier the even just every year you go back it's worse and worse and worse it [TS]

00:18:14 ◼   ► makes a difference if it's like 2005 vs 2003 vs 2001 I it's absolutely [TS]

00:18:20 ◼   ► astounding how many links or 404 really it's depressing [TS]

00:18:23 ◼   ► so my idea would be to hire somebody I to go back and for every dead link see [TS]

00:18:31 ◼   ► if it's available at archive.org and if it is change the link to the archive . [TS]

00:18:35 ◼   ► or version it was it it makes sense and also then it comes back to like well how [TS]

00:18:44 ◼   ► is up how many people can actually click these links [TS]

00:18:47 ◼   ► yeah but it's I just wanted to be right you know i mean it has nothing to do [TS]

00:18:50 ◼   ► with making only know I find a satellite solely it's just that it just bothers me [TS]

00:18:55 ◼   ► and they a I don't know it isn't you know in the way that my obsessions you [TS]

00:19:01 ◼   ► know it's I know that it's the right thing to do and it doesn't matter where [TS]

00:19:05 ◼   ► Itay bother it bothers you to know that there's a bunch of bad links and I'm you [TS]

00:19:10 ◼   ► know in your stream right and I don't want any link on during fireball a virgo [TS]

00:19:14 ◼   ► bad i really do I mean I mean I want everything that I've ever posted daring [TS]

00:19:18 ◼   ► fireball to be a you know a valid URL in perpetuity long past you know when i'm [TS]

00:19:26 ◼   ► dead [TS]

00:19:31 ◼   ► I was gonna say in the ground i really doubt that I'm gonna put it happened so [TS]

00:19:36 ◼   ► i wasn't sure what it is we have taken some more return i know i think we [TS]

00:19:42 ◼   ► started with we started with sparkling water an hour in the ground [TS]

00:19:45 ◼   ► well i was going to say and tell him in the ground this is why I hesitated there [TS]

00:19:49 ◼   ► i was going to say in the ground and then I realized I really i don't want to [TS]

00:19:52 ◼   ► be buried I think that's you know antiquated in a waste of waste of real [TS]

00:19:56 ◼   ► estate and so I was going to say burned up but then I realized if I said burned [TS]

00:20:00 ◼   ► up [TS]

00:20:00 ◼   ► it's as though i'm predicting that I'm gonna die that's terrible fire which is [TS]

00:20:05 ◼   ► you know I hopefully will not be the way that I got hopefully you'll be already [TS]

00:20:10 ◼   ► dead before you enter the terrible fire exactly uh well with it [TS]

00:20:15 ◼   ► what better segue into my first thanking my first sponsor you're lucky I just [TS]

00:20:22 ◼   ► because you lots right into it so I i had to do the panic hit record so it i [TS]

00:20:26 ◼   ► was gonna break its gonna break all you should always weirded out [TS]

00:20:30 ◼   ► no i did i did i was only five seconds late don't worry you missed the what's [TS]

00:20:34 ◼   ► up the very enthusiastic what's up our first sponsor is our good friends at [TS]

00:20:40 ◼   ► wealthfront wealthfront is an automated investment service they have over three [TS]

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00:20:55 ◼   ► in a low-cost and tax efficient manner so what you do is you give wealthfront [TS]

00:21:03 ◼   ► your money and it is effectively set it and forget it you don't go there and [TS]

00:21:08 ◼   ► it's not like this is where you go to day trade and and something like that [TS]

00:21:12 ◼   ► and pick pick individual companies and and and things like that [TS]

00:21:17 ◼   ► this is the complete opposite of this this is not short-term active market [TS]

00:21:21 ◼   ► timing trading this is put it in there and this is a algorithm they have [TS]

00:21:28 ◼   ► algorithms that are really measured for the long term and research shows that [TS]

00:21:34 ◼   ► when individuals attempt to time the markets attempt to day-trade attempt to [TS]

00:21:38 ◼   ► pick individual stocks I overwhelmingly they underperform [TS]

00:21:44 ◼   ► index funds and a large part because of the higher cost higher taxes and just [TS]

00:21:51 ◼   ► the fact that you've it's really hard to to beat the index funds so here's a big [TS]

00:21:57 ◼   ► advantage to wealth fund a charge no Trading Commission's I and they charged [TS]

00:22:03 ◼   ► an advisory fee of 0.25 per cent per year [TS]

00:22:09 ◼   ► that's one-fourth of one percent and that's only on assets above $10,000 so [TS]

00:22:14 ◼   ► if you only put less than ten thousand dollars into your world from account [TS]

00:22:17 ◼   ► which is what how people they know this is what people do and and it makes total [TS]

00:22:21 ◼   ► sense [TS]

00:22:22 ◼   ► people who get started with 12 wealthfront put like play money in there [TS]

00:22:26 ◼   ► just to see if it works and then when they see that it works and they give [TS]

00:22:30 ◼   ► trust then they put quote-unquote real money into two wealthfront and only when [TS]

00:22:34 ◼   ► you're over ten thousand dollars do they start charging fees and even then the [TS]

00:22:38 ◼   ► fee is only one-fourth of one percent and you can get an additional five [TS]

00:22:43 ◼   ► thousand dollars free for each friend you recommend a well front and those [TS]

00:22:49 ◼   ► people who you recommend your friends who you say hey man I'm putting on my [TS]

00:22:52 ◼   ► money and well front and and you can get into they get the five thousand dollars [TS]

00:22:57 ◼   ► extra too so there's no and there's no limit to the amount you can get manage [TS]

00:23:01 ◼   ► free so put a whole bunch of friends in there and you can keep getting more and [TS]

00:23:04 ◼   ► more that has no fees at all it's really really low fee [TS]

00:23:10 ◼   ► really I optimized for the long term [TS]

00:23:15 ◼   ► I that there's so much more and and they're they're experts on this i'm not [TS]

00:23:20 ◼   ► an expert on on investing or anything like that [TS]

00:23:23 ◼   ► other than the fact that I'm a true believer and putting your long-term [TS]

00:23:26 ◼   ► investments into index funds as a basic idea so go there and find out more and [TS]

00:23:34 ◼   ► the URL is where you go wealthfront dot-com / the talk show [TS]

00:23:43 ◼   ► I really it's just a great way to invest your money and it's super easy you just [TS]

00:23:48 ◼   ► go there you just it's no work [TS]

00:23:50 ◼   ► it's no work and your money is in a in my opinion the safest sort of investment [TS]

00:23:56 ◼   ► that you can in the long run which is index funds and they take care of all [TS]

00:24:00 ◼   ► the details and they really do it in a way that minimizes your taxes and [TS]

00:24:05 ◼   ► maximizes the long-term after tax returns that you'll get on your [TS]

00:24:10 ◼   ► investment so go too well front calm / the talk show we have a lot to talk [TS]

00:24:17 ◼   ► about a good thing we wasted first half hour that sparkling water on his part of [TS]

00:24:23 ◼   ► your nonsense we do multiple multiple topics are and I think all apple-related [TS]

00:24:29 ◼   ► but well I want to talk to you about this stupid [TS]

00:24:33 ◼   ► amazon echo that you talked me into buying oh that's right but we should [TS]

00:24:39 ◼   ► talk about Apple Apple first and we shot it to both the apple iphone end to the [TS]

00:24:46 ◼   ► UN um guys discussion on the services idea which I thought was actually really [TS]

00:24:50 ◼   ► good I enjoyed it i just i had 111 addition to make well make it now let's [TS]

00:24:55 ◼   ► all that first let's do that [TS]

00:24:56 ◼   ► so last week show guy and I spent a long time talking about your recent piece on [TS]

00:25:01 ◼   ► on apple and services and and their their organizational structure so tell [TS]

00:25:07 ◼   ► me what you quit the only thing I would say is is when I say Apple services i'm [TS]

00:25:12 ◼   ► talking I about much more than just iCloud and I think that that was a I did [TS]

00:25:19 ◼   ► say that an article about i probably could have made the point more [TS]

00:25:21 ◼   ► forcefully because people here apple services and they think I cloud like [TS]

00:25:25 ◼   ► iCloud as it is a day I actually agree with you it's mostly fine i think the [TS]

00:25:30 ◼   ► proper your password way too much for one uh but but when that when I told [TS]

00:25:35 ◼   ► sources that includes things like the app story include like that is a service [TS]

00:25:39 ◼   ► and I don't think it's run optimally like it and I think it's to apple [TS]

00:25:44 ◼   ► actually chapels detriment [TS]

00:25:46 ◼   ► it's things like Apple pay its things like home kit it's all these ancillary [TS]

00:25:51 ◼   ► things and I think where they actually struggle the most many cases is placed [TS]

00:25:55 ◼   ► with a foster equal [TS]

00:25:56 ◼   ► systems like have to get merchants to adopt appal pay they need to they need [TS]

00:26:00 ◼   ► to get device makers to to integrate with with home kit they need to make it [TS]

00:26:05 ◼   ► so developers can build sustainable business on the app store like all those [TS]

00:26:09 ◼   ► go into the services bucket and I think in general [TS]

00:26:13 ◼   ► apple is not good at those and it's not just the timing issue it's the control [TS]

00:26:18 ◼   ► issue like it was a big reason why apple sucks that stuff is they they have a [TS]

00:26:23 ◼   ► very hard time of letting go of control and so that that was the one that you [TS]

00:26:29 ◼   ► guys didn't talk about that part and actually think that's the more important [TS]

00:26:32 ◼   ► part because that's the potential part that's what Apple like it's so easy to [TS]

00:26:36 ◼   ► look at stuff that companies do poorly but often the bigger the greater damage [TS]

00:26:42 ◼   ► is the stuff that's not done the advantages that aren't taking advantage [TS]

00:26:45 ◼   ► of all the opportunities are taking advantage of and so that was just the [TS]

00:26:49 ◼   ► one kind of missing piece I don't you think Apple pay as inventive don't you [TS]

00:26:53 ◼   ► think apple pays an example of Apple getting it right where they have they've [TS]

00:26:57 ◼   ► built this thing on top of that they're not requiring people to have an apple [TS]

00:27:01 ◼   ► retailers to have a Apple pay proprietary sensor it's it's this thing [TS]

00:27:07 ◼   ► that works you know with with anybody you know it works with android phones [TS]

00:27:12 ◼   ► its it was already there like some retailers on day one could just say okay [TS]

00:27:17 ◼   ► we're in [TS]

00:27:18 ◼   ► and I think that the growth and Apple pay is actually pretty impressive [TS]

00:27:24 ◼   ► I i sewed and I think Apple pay is actually a really interesting example to [TS]

00:27:30 ◼   ► talk about and the reason is because first off because multiple components [TS]

00:27:33 ◼   ► that that go into Apple pay so first off the there's the actual Hardware aspect [TS]

00:27:39 ◼   ► of it which is brilliantly done it works really well there is a one downside [TS]

00:27:43 ◼   ► which I personally I trigger Apple pay too often just in general day-to-day use [TS]

00:27:48 ◼   ► which is kind of annoying especially since i haven't I want it's not really [TS]

00:27:51 ◼   ► available here [TS]

00:27:52 ◼   ► that part's awesome the and at which makes sense apple it's it's a beautiful [TS]

00:27:57 ◼   ► example of Apple integrating all the different pieces that go into making [TS]

00:28:01 ◼   ► that experience work flawlessly [TS]

00:28:02 ◼   ► so the the hardware aspect is amazing too and the secure Enclave and all that [TS]

00:28:07 ◼   ► sort of stuff to apple [TS]

00:28:10 ◼   ► got the banks to heal very effectively and in general if you look at apple in [TS]

00:28:14 ◼   ► any q's division and all that sort of stuff from a business development [TS]

00:28:17 ◼   ► perspective they're actually usually pretty good at working with big [TS]

00:28:21 ◼   ► established players they understand ago she understand how we're leverages and [TS]

00:28:25 ◼   ► how to use it and things like that you know we've seen that with the label [TS]

00:28:28 ◼   ► we've seen that with windows out the banks and so Apple but again I think [TS]

00:28:32 ◼   ► when you get a bunch of apple executives and other companies in a room [TS]

00:28:37 ◼   ► Apple feels like they can control that situation they do it well where I think [TS]

00:28:40 ◼   ► Apple has really dropped the ball is in coming up with an effective means to get [TS]

00:28:47 ◼   ► retailers on board the guess they've got to the big retailers and work with them [TS]

00:28:51 ◼   ► again directly but where's the in where's the incentive program for small [TS]

00:28:56 ◼   ► merchants to sign up [TS]

00:28:57 ◼   ► where's the program to go and get information on Apple pay and supporting [TS]

00:28:59 ◼   ► your store [TS]

00:29:00 ◼   ► where's the program to get stickers for your door that says Apple pay supported [TS]

00:29:03 ◼   ► here all that stuff is non-existent and I actually wrote about this in a update [TS]

00:29:07 ◼   ► actually heard from multiple people who wanted to support apple pay because of [TS]

00:29:12 ◼   ► the what you there was the liability shift last fall which is a huge [TS]

00:29:15 ◼   ► opportunity for Apple to take advantage of and and they're like we we like what [TS]

00:29:20 ◼   ► we couldn't get over apple there's nothing on the side about what to do [TS]

00:29:23 ◼   ► that we bought a new we've got a new payment processor none of them said if [TS]

00:29:26 ◼   ► they support apple pear not so we didn't know so apples not working with the [TS]

00:29:29 ◼   ► manufacturers of these things and that's where Apple falls down because there is [TS]

00:29:34 ◼   ► something you can't an apple representative can't go out and talk to [TS]

00:29:37 ◼   ► every small and medium-sized businesses can talk to every merchant they probably [TS]

00:29:41 ◼   ► should talk to every manufacturer payment terminals but they didn't [TS]

00:29:43 ◼   ► apparently but but what you have to do is you have to create incentives you [TS]

00:29:48 ◼   ► have to have like bonus programs you have to figure out ways that people can [TS]

00:29:51 ◼   ► sign up seamlessly to integrate the rewards program or coupon or whatever it [TS]

00:29:54 ◼   ► might be and that sort of stuff where it's it's self-serve apple doesn't do a [TS]

00:30:01 ◼   ► good job with that stuff and I again you can see that with the app store i get [TS]

00:30:03 ◼   ► like this the people that Apple deals with directly they do a good job and a [TS]

00:30:08 ◼   ► partner well but when it comes to creating the conditions for success for [TS]

00:30:13 ◼   ► people broadly that aren't necessarily gonna ever talk to apple one-on-one the [TS]

00:30:17 ◼   ► company doesn't do a good job and and I think that's why Apple pay like there [TS]

00:30:22 ◼   ► was this huge opportunity last year with this [TS]

00:30:24 ◼   ► liability shift where basically what happened was it if you didn't have a [TS]

00:30:28 ◼   ► chip readable terminal and someone had a chip card you are liable for any fraud [TS]

00:30:34 ◼   ► and vice versa if you if you didn't have a chip card advantage of terminal then [TS]

00:30:37 ◼   ► you're liable for fraud so so it was it means that was a great example of how [TS]

00:30:41 ◼   ► incentives drive change they couldn't force people to upgrade their terminals [TS]

00:30:45 ◼   ► but they could say if you don't you're gonna be held liable and so people would [TS]

00:30:49 ◼   ► would pave themselves to to upgrade and apples that was a huge exam for Apple [TS]

00:30:53 ◼   ► pay to be all over that and be advertising say these chips suck they [TS]

00:30:56 ◼   ► take a long time to use it takes like 60 seconds or 30 seconds whatever process [TS]

00:31:00 ◼   ► this is the chance [TS]

00:31:02 ◼   ► everyone's gonna buy new ones Apple should have had a huge blitz they should [TS]

00:31:04 ◼   ► have marketing targeted business owners and none of that happen [TS]

00:31:08 ◼   ► absolutely none of it so you're saying even though the growth is great that [TS]

00:31:13 ◼   ► could have been it could be accelerated if Apple were doing everything is hugely [TS]

00:31:17 ◼   ► accelerated right right because apple pays not never going to reach its [TS]

00:31:20 ◼   ► potential and less people have confidence that it will mostly be okay [TS]

00:31:24 ◼   ► in the way we actually this is a time to the echo thing right the reason one [TS]

00:31:27 ◼   ► reason i like Alexa much better than Cirie is I'm shocked when Alexa doesn't [TS]

00:31:32 ◼   ► work and i'm pleasantly pleased when when serie does like there's a there's a [TS]

00:31:37 ◼   ► line that is like where you assume it's going to work and Apple pay is a long [TS]

00:31:42 ◼   ► ways away from that wine like in with what happens is even if you know [TS]

00:31:45 ◼   ► mcdonald's accepted or walgreens accept it or whatever the places maybe you're [TS]

00:31:49 ◼   ► not in the habit at all of using it because no one wants to walk up and look [TS]

00:31:53 ◼   ► like an amoeba tones geeks will a lot of us were up a UH but normal people don't [TS]

00:31:58 ◼   ► want to be in that awkward situation and so it's just frustrating because it's [TS]

00:32:03 ◼   ► such a great product is so much potential because I mean it's the [TS]

00:32:07 ◼   ► imagine Apple owning your wallet like and it's it need what opportunities are [TS]

00:32:14 ◼   ► out there if they really established this and make it are very real thing and [TS]

00:32:19 ◼   ► again that's my services criticism it's not that the stuff they do isn't as [TS]

00:32:23 ◼   ► great as it could be [TS]

00:32:24 ◼   ► it's not frankly but it's not that big a deal is probably mostly fine it's the [TS]

00:32:27 ◼   ► opportunities that I believe they're missing [TS]

00:32:30 ◼   ► I don't know about them but [TS]

00:32:35 ◼   ► it's an interesting or i don't know i don't know i was i was appreciative that [TS]

00:32:41 ◼   ► you didn't dismiss my proposal right so I'll take what I can get it what it was [TS]

00:32:48 ◼   ► so what do you think you just said this or some something I link to this week or [TS]

00:32:56 ◼   ► somebody held up [TS]

00:32:57 ◼   ► I message as a it might have been the that group [TS]

00:33:05 ◼   ► kookai link to said tim cook should be fired which is cropped up again like [TS]

00:33:11 ◼   ► soon as its yeah he he's he's he's a he's a character to say the least [TS]

00:33:17 ◼   ► wait who was it Oh left sets yeah that's it by our places i held up [TS]

00:33:24 ◼   ► I message as like Apple dropping the ball because they're keeping it [TS]

00:33:28 ◼   ► proprietary and I unless it is a kook and he's not the only person who said it [TS]

00:33:33 ◼   ► but what to me I message is is a a very it under appreciated aspect of modern [TS]

00:33:44 ◼   ► apple because they don't fit in it it is to me almost a a pure APPL service [TS]

00:33:55 ◼   ► because nobody else would ever do anything like this because it wouldn't [TS]

00:33:58 ◼   ► make sense for anybody else to do it is like overbought blackberry [TS]

00:34:04 ◼   ► yeah i guess so i guess so i guess you're right i guess it is sort of a [TS]

00:34:07 ◼   ► copy of BBM and that's that's that's fair you know and like but that that's a [TS]

00:34:14 ◼   ► testament to to the point and like that's like the tension here right [TS]

00:34:17 ◼   ► because I message is a beautiful example of Apple having a a vertical sort of [TS]

00:34:23 ◼   ► model where their services differentiate their hardware like I message is a [TS]

00:34:27 ◼   ► reason to have and use an iphone like I tried to switch to android when my arm [TS]

00:34:32 ◼   ► was broken because the speech recognition is so much better and one of [TS]

00:34:35 ◼   ► the things that made it very difficult was the lack of my message like it's a [TS]

00:34:40 ◼   ► super great [TS]

00:34:41 ◼   ► it's it's a super great locking it really is and yeah and it's so the know [TS]

00:34:46 ◼   ► that that's why this whole [TS]

00:34:48 ◼   ► services thing is so fraught because to date it has been about differentiating [TS]

00:34:54 ◼   ► apples services and the question is in the long run like is that is that enough [TS]

00:35:02 ◼   ► right that the thing that to me is underappreciated is that if you if you [TS]

00:35:06 ◼   ► and I started messaging service that that had only in exactly the features [TS]

00:35:12 ◼   ► that I message has end-to-end encryption I you you can put its you can send texts [TS]

00:35:18 ◼   ► and you can embed images and that's it and we got as many users as I message [TS]

00:35:25 ◼   ► has it would be a tremendously valuable company it you know it's on the scale of [TS]

00:35:34 ◼   ► like what's happened what's the other one you know mall [TS]

00:35:39 ◼   ► I'll line we draw in college right [TS]

00:35:42 ◼   ► it's it or no now it is the number of you know in and whatever a buzzword [TS]

00:35:49 ◼   ► metric you want to use like daily active users it it's huge [TS]

00:35:53 ◼   ► I message is huge in terms of how many people send or receive an iMessage every [TS]

00:35:58 ◼   ► day it would be tremendously valuable and it goes completely unto me [TS]

00:36:04 ◼   ► unrecognized in people evaluating apple and maybe I don't think maybe it'll [TS]

00:36:10 ◼   ► shouldn't maybe it maybe it shouldn't because you know the other ways that [TS]

00:36:14 ◼   ► people value Apple there are intrinsically tied to I message exactly [TS]

00:36:19 ◼   ► because people value Apple based on how many iphones they sell and the way I [TS]

00:36:22 ◼   ► message is leveraged by apple right now is as a tool to sell more iphones and so [TS]

00:36:29 ◼   ► it is properly valued like the only way it should be valued separately is if [TS]

00:36:34 ◼   ► Apple explicitly starts to think about it as as a service in its own right in [TS]

00:36:40 ◼   ► maybe you could do that was while retaining it being only on on iphones [TS]

00:36:45 ◼   ► you may have we maybe have less potential then but but no III don't [TS]

00:36:49 ◼   ► think it is undervalued people think oh they look at what's up to 18 billion we [TS]

00:36:54 ◼   ► know how much as I measures words that we ended up with about like the stocks [TS]

00:36:56 ◼   ► unfair baba it's not because Apple has strategy is such that [TS]

00:37:02 ◼   ► it is a part of the iphone and the iphone is valued very highly apple is [TS]

00:37:07 ◼   ► still the most valuable company in the world and it it leads me to what Apple [TS]

00:37:12 ◼   ► has invented as end to me a fairly as its own metric I and I think it's only [TS]

00:37:19 ◼   ► going back two or three quarters where they've started citing this number of I [TS]

00:37:26 ◼   ► don't know they're calling it daily but actively used devices and their say [TS]

00:37:31 ◼   ► they're saying that they would I think it's a billion write a building up that [TS]

00:37:35 ◼   ► there's a billion Apple devices in active use which isn't it [TS]

00:37:41 ◼   ► it in no other company may be other than samsung samsung I guess it would be an [TS]

00:37:46 ◼   ► interesting I guess samsung could could act could use that figure and it would [TS]

00:37:51 ◼   ► be interesting to especially considering that Samsung has things like [TS]

00:37:55 ◼   ► refrigerators and washing machines and microwave oven now seriously it is why [TS]

00:38:01 ◼   ► I'm laughing because I first sorry is it all aside side . but the this the it's [TS]

00:38:08 ◼   ► not even about Sam's life I never tell this story but now I've got myself too [TS]

00:38:12 ◼   ► far in their ways during the NCAA tournament you know you see the same [TS]

00:38:15 ◼   ► commercial million times [TS]

00:38:16 ◼   ► yeah and i think it was a couple years ago there's a commercial for the LG [TS]

00:38:20 ◼   ► smartphone like the optimists or prime or whatever it's called that's not the [TS]

00:38:23 ◼   ► right name but it's something like that and they would get the commercial would [TS]

00:38:27 ◼   ► be all about the phone at the very end I think Kenny Smith was was the guy that [TS]

00:38:32 ◼   ► was doing it was a great Anthony they would show him in front of the line up [TS]

00:38:35 ◼   ► like water since dryers and refrigerators which the whole commercial [TS]

00:38:39 ◼   ► was not about it all but they felt like they felt the need to squeeze that into [TS]

00:38:43 ◼   ► this ad there's a lot of money for it cracked me up every single time I [TS]

00:38:47 ◼   ► thought everything that's like been three years and still laughing about it [TS]

00:38:50 ◼   ► er sorry that was totally totally off track [TS]

00:38:53 ◼   ► well now that i think about it though I died I realized that there's a lot of [TS]

00:38:57 ◼   ► companies you know Sony and in LG any of those companies that I guess could cite [TS]

00:39:01 ◼   ► a lot of quote-unquote devices [TS]

00:39:04 ◼   ► I guess what makes apples metric more interesting is that apples devices are [TS]

00:39:08 ◼   ► actually [TS]

00:39:09 ◼   ► things that you pay attention to you know they're real computers is what [TS]

00:39:15 ◼   ► they're talking about it is and I honestly Apple talking about services [TS]

00:39:19 ◼   ► and other services company is totally legitimate because it is a it is a real [TS]

00:39:24 ◼   ► one they make real money [TS]

00:39:26 ◼   ► the vast majority of it is from the app store and most from pay to play games [TS]

00:39:29 ◼   ► because you know that's all that Apple has enabled from a business model [TS]

00:39:33 ◼   ► perspective which I'm happy to rant and rave about but it is real money and and [TS]

00:39:38 ◼   ► they're right and it is also real potential like if they actually did get [TS]

00:39:44 ◼   ► serious about it like up you can do a lot with a billion devices and and [TS]

00:39:49 ◼   ► that's it is nothing with the iCloud thing [TS]

00:39:51 ◼   ► the reason why I don't like focusing on iCloud is because the implication of [TS]

00:39:55 ◼   ► folks in iCloud is it should be on all devices like Apple music is on Android [TS]

00:39:58 ◼   ► and stuff but what I think is the huge potential for apple is device specific [TS]

00:40:02 ◼   ► services it is it is the things like Apple pay it is the things like home kit [TS]

00:40:07 ◼   ► is the things like the watch like the watch the huge potential for the watch [TS]

00:40:12 ◼   ► from my perspective is being the key to your life like literally the key your [TS]

00:40:16 ◼   ► watch it open your door watch it or should I just start your car you're [TS]

00:40:19 ◼   ► watching me your badge at work like your watch should be this movable piece of [TS]

00:40:24 ◼   ► identification that operate in Apple Apple pay like the watch with apple pays [TS]

00:40:29 ◼   ► amazing it you just have to find a place that has Apple pay you know I thought [TS]

00:40:35 ◼   ► about that too that the wood the watch as your sort of key to your life and [TS]

00:40:41 ◼   ► I've written about it too little way too little maybe even borderline not at all [TS]

00:40:46 ◼   ► in terms of a the big picture question of which I've sort of been writing about [TS]

00:40:54 ◼   ► recently is why did they do the what you know why did they do the why did they [TS]

00:40:58 ◼   ► release the watch when they did with the features that it has you know should [TS]

00:41:03 ◼   ► they have released a body obviously the watches it's significantly flawed it's [TS]

00:41:08 ◼   ► the most flawed device apple has released in $YEAR and in modern history [TS]

00:41:13 ◼   ► in my opinion [TS]

00:41:14 ◼   ► and i recently I've been writing either you know I've positive and with it with [TS]

00:41:18 ◼   ► a group with that grouper justjust despond hundred articles but could [TS]

00:41:22 ◼   ► continue i I've posited though that Apple should have either waited longer [TS]

00:41:29 ◼   ► to release the watch so that it would have been faster and that some of the [TS]

00:41:33 ◼   ► features that don't work well would have worked better or cut those features that [TS]

00:41:37 ◼   ► don't work well on the watch as we know it and released when they did but i do [TS]

00:41:43 ◼   ► think lost in there is that one of the reasons that I think they wanted to get [TS]

00:41:47 ◼   ► the watch out [TS]

00:41:48 ◼   ► asu no sooner rather than later that flaws though it had is that idea though [TS]

00:41:54 ◼   ► of the watch the long run [TS]

00:41:56 ◼   ► being a sort of key to your life I do i do think there's tremendous potential [TS]

00:42:02 ◼   ► there and I thought about things like you know touch ideas such an eye opener [TS]

00:42:07 ◼   ► on on iOS devices but it's conspicuously absent on the mac and every time I have [TS]

00:42:14 ◼   ► to type my password to unlock you know wake up my mac i think what a pain in [TS]

00:42:20 ◼   ► the asses every single time and why you know if ever [TS]

00:42:23 ◼   ► well people watch on the this should be locked yeah exactly and people a lot [TS]

00:42:27 ◼   ► about it's like a frequently a emailed question to me is you know like it just [TS]

00:42:32 ◼   ► with the recent update to the macbook one that you know [TS]

00:42:38 ◼   ► hey how come they don't put a touch ID sensor on the macbook because I'm so [TS]

00:42:41 ◼   ► used to on this and I tend to think that the answer isn't touch ID for the mac i [TS]

00:42:46 ◼   ► tend to think the answer is like some sort of way of if you if you've got the [TS]

00:42:53 ◼   ► watch on and you're within a very very close distance you know like like three [TS]

00:42:58 ◼   ► inches of the mac that it just unlocks there are actually apps you can get that [TS]

00:43:04 ◼   ► do this and they do it with the phone as well but they're a little clunky as [TS]

00:43:08 ◼   ► anything kind of third parties yet has to be havin dinner party [TS]

00:43:12 ◼   ► yeah I know that apps who and no the other thing with with the macbook is the [TS]

00:43:18 ◼   ► touch ideas is intimately integrated with the secure Enclave on the already a [TS]

00:43:23 ◼   ► serious chips so as long as there isn't in [TS]

00:43:27 ◼   ► arm-based max I don't think there's going to be touch ID yeah that's it's [TS]

00:43:32 ◼   ► probably true and I just I just tend to think that is the wrong form factor and [TS]

00:43:36 ◼   ► the fact that it it it kind of makes sense from it has to it should be to be [TS]

00:43:44 ◼   ► due to be done right it has to be platform wide that any mac or at least [TS]

00:43:49 ◼   ► new mac could do it but touch ID to do it the exact same way would only work on [TS]

00:43:55 ◼   ► macbooks because there's there's just no feasible way that that it [TS]

00:44:00 ◼   ► well i guess not no feasible way but you'd have to have you know two haven't [TS]

00:44:03 ◼   ► work on the imax and mac pro's remember the macro will make that you you would [TS]

00:44:10 ◼   ► have to build it into the keyboard and it's you know and the idea that you [TS]

00:44:16 ◼   ► could do it from the watch i guess if you could do from the watch you could do [TS]

00:44:19 ◼   ► from the keyboard you know that it would be some kind of secure way to do it [TS]

00:44:22 ◼   ► wirelessly but it just makes more sense to me that it would be the thing you [TS]

00:44:27 ◼   ► know and like you said like it should start your car it could let you in your [TS]

00:44:31 ◼   ► house if you have a smart door you know it's there's so many ways that it could [TS]

00:44:35 ◼   ► be done for that and it would be a tremendous like it would really like [TS]

00:44:39 ◼   ► start to remove so many questions about why are they building we know why did [TS]

00:44:43 ◼   ► they make a device that you can wear you know on your wrist [TS]

00:44:46 ◼   ► no I completely agree and I mean this has been my vision for the watch kind of [TS]

00:44:50 ◼   ► from the beginning I actually thought they might not even have a screen at the [TS]

00:44:52 ◼   ► meeting because i was still like to me this idea of being the key to your life [TS]

00:44:56 ◼   ► and the notifications I mean the best feature of the watches the taptic engine [TS]

00:44:59 ◼   ► and unless it fails but I mean it's like that's what makes it really great i was [TS]

00:45:04 ◼   ► to wear regularly i would argue though that the taptic engine is the best in in [TS]

00:45:09 ◼   ► theory it's the best feature but in practice it's not and and I think part [TS]

00:45:14 ◼   ► of that is me being biased because i have my watches the stainless steel one [TS]

00:45:18 ◼   ► and idea fire and I've worn the aluminum ones enough and it's you know I just the [TS]

00:45:25 ◼   ► privilege of of getting review units and being able to try both because i realize [TS]

00:45:31 ◼   ► most people why in the world would a normal person be able to wear both but I [TS]

00:45:34 ◼   ► have an aluminum model here that I don't know it's you know it's a review unit [TS]

00:45:38 ◼   ► from apple [TS]

00:45:39 ◼   ► but it's eye-opening after a while how much better the taptic engine is on the [TS]

00:45:43 ◼   ► aluminum models than the steel ones and I've even more [TS]

00:45:47 ◼   ► I've tried it I've tried my son has the aluminum you know the sport model too [TS]

00:45:51 ◼   ► and I've worn his just for it you know like an hour or so and just said like [TS]

00:45:57 ◼   ► hey just sent me a text every couple minutes you know or send yourself a text [TS]

00:46:00 ◼   ► you know because it would sink to his phone but so i would feel it on my wrist [TS]

00:46:04 ◼   ► and it feels so much better and it's you know it's hot out of that how does it [TS]

00:46:08 ◼   ► feel on the addition John I don't know I actually i've i've never even tried in [TS]

00:46:13 ◼   ► addition honest even even reviewers don't even get to try to you know i have [TS]

00:46:17 ◼   ► noticed though the apple the Apple store here in center city philadelphia used to [TS]

00:46:22 ◼   ► be one of the stores that had the edition models in the display and you [TS]

00:46:26 ◼   ► could buy the edition model here and just last week Amy and I were had a [TS]

00:46:34 ◼   ► we're running errands and center stating we stopped in to the apple store and the [TS]

00:46:40 ◼   ► edition models are gone in Philadelphia store interesting it's interesting [TS]

00:46:46 ◼   ► yeah i noted a while ago that that there would seem to quietly be emphasizing the [TS]

00:46:53 ◼   ► addition less and less and there's some pushback from a few people on Twitter [TS]

00:46:59 ◼   ► who are saying no they're not you know and it's still there it's just they're [TS]

00:47:01 ◼   ► just putting in it you know they just rearrange it is not really less emphasis [TS]

00:47:05 ◼   ► but there's no doubt in my mind that they're just quietly you know it I know [TS]

00:47:11 ◼   ► that quietly is often overused like finally when talking about Apple you [TS]

00:47:14 ◼   ► know Apple quietly you know blood and it's you know not really any less or [TS]

00:47:20 ◼   ► more quiet than anything else it's just that they're not trumpeting it but it's [TS]

00:47:24 ◼   ► nowhere on i'm on the front page of the watch page and there is not an addition [TS]

00:47:28 ◼   ► on here and not like 15 watches on your now it's this there but to me the way [TS]

00:47:33 ◼   ► that they're backing away from the edition model watches really is sort of [TS]

00:47:38 ◼   ► a quiet like you know let's start pretending like this doesn't exist and [TS]

00:47:43 ◼   ► to me the new the new addition [TS]

00:47:46 ◼   ► is the Hermes yep models of the watch that's the and you know like the the [TS]

00:47:55 ◼   ► stainless steel link bracelets you know that the the luxury version of the watch [TS]

00:48:01 ◼   ► are the ones that cost thousands of 2,000 not five to twenty thousand yeah I [TS]

00:48:09 ◼   ► think it'll be interesting to if we look back on that addition sort of series [TS]

00:48:15 ◼   ► I we had so much fun to speculate about that i would cost a pretty sure we'd all [TS]

00:48:19 ◼   ► like yeah the whole time I'm looking at the whole kind nature there's nothing [TS]

00:48:23 ◼   ► about him at all [TS]

00:48:24 ◼   ► yep and and yeah if we look back at this sort of a a a kind of hubristic moment [TS]

00:48:32 ◼   ► to be honest I mean we're going to sell a a twenty-thousand-dollar watch because [TS]

00:48:37 ◼   ► because we can and we're and we're gonna show it at these you know fashion [TS]

00:48:41 ◼   ► boutiques and all sorted often you know it into lots of people's credit there [TS]

00:48:45 ◼   ► was a significant sector of of the sort of Apple you know world that felt very [TS]

00:48:53 ◼   ► uncomfortable with that uh you know more so than i did to be frank and and maybe [TS]

00:48:58 ◼   ► there was something really to that has fascinating way for your way we have [TS]

00:49:04 ◼   ► this discussion I think they like the whole andy warhol coke thing right now [TS]

00:49:07 ◼   ► and yes the function of an addition was the same as the function of a sport but [TS]

00:49:12 ◼   ► just the idea because what made what makes the iPhone so powerful as a [TS]

00:49:17 ◼   ► consumer product there's lots of things about to make a powerful but the best [TS]

00:49:21 ◼   ► phone in the world has an entry price of 650 dollars and while that is massively [TS]

00:49:27 ◼   ► more expensive than the cheapest android you can get 50 bucks on an absolute [TS]

00:49:32 ◼   ► basis it's just not that much money and like it [TS]

00:49:35 ◼   ► whereas cars you see all the iphones the BMW cars will sure but on an absolute [TS]

00:49:39 ◼   ► basis of bmw's what minimum 35,000 want something you know if you want a real [TS]

00:49:44 ◼   ► BMW it's it's it's a lot more than that like just absolute numbers matter and an [TS]

00:49:50 ◼   ► absolute basis the iphone has never been that expensive on a percentage but on a [TS]

00:49:54 ◼   ► relative basis yes it is absolutely expensive but and that is something [TS]

00:49:59 ◼   ► that's cool [TS]

00:49:59 ◼   ► 42 Apple you can have the best phone in the world for relatively to the grand [TS]

00:50:04 ◼   ► scheme of luxury goods not that much money i forget what year it was but it [TS]

00:50:09 ◼   ► may be but it's probably the last year and went to South by Southwest and so [TS]

00:50:13 ◼   ► that's probably like twenty ten or maybe it was even 2011 but somewhere around [TS]

00:50:18 ◼   ► there [TS]

00:50:19 ◼   ► the last year I went to South by Southwest and in austin and me and Jim [TS]

00:50:25 ◼   ► quad all and Michael op and a few other people went to dinner at $TIME at a [TS]

00:50:34 ◼   ► steakhouse and as we were leaving we were like waiting in the entry area in [TS]

00:50:41 ◼   ► like sort of way of the the restaurant to leave and we saw by him standing by [TS]

00:50:48 ◼   ► himself waiting i guess to go in it seemed it very soon seemed like he was [TS]

00:50:51 ◼   ► waiting to to meet his party we saw Michael Dell and it was like holy shit [TS]

00:50:55 ◼   ► that's Michael Dell you know there's a billionaire and he was on his phone and [TS]

00:50:59 ◼   ► I don't know what kind of phone he was using but the thought just popped into [TS]

00:51:03 ◼   ► my head he's a billionaire and I have a better phone than he does it I don't it [TS]

00:51:09 ◼   ► was such a weird but it was like holy shit there's Michael Dell Wow [TS]

00:51:14 ◼   ► and then I because he was on his phone and it was clearly some sort of you know [TS]

00:51:19 ◼   ► I don't know what I don't know if it wasn't someone iphone i was not an [TS]

00:51:23 ◼   ► iphone and I realize because it was not an iphone whatever it was [TS]

00:51:27 ◼   ► he's a billionaire but i have a better phone than he does and it was like such [TS]

00:51:31 ◼   ► a weird spot and it is that sort of egalitarians thing that if you if you [TS]

00:51:36 ◼   ► take the addition out of the Apple watch lineup and just look at what they have [TS]

00:51:40 ◼   ► without the addition it makes total sense to me as an apple product where it [TS]

00:51:44 ◼   ► ranges from 2 99 too i think the most expensive is the Hermes stuff which is [TS]

00:51:52 ◼   ► I'm looking $1,500 and take the cuff out and it's you know they think it's like [TS]

00:51:58 ◼   ► 1254 one of the Hermes models and that makes studies is the cheapest stainless [TS]

00:52:03 ◼   ► steels like 450 something that Apple has always had kind of two levels and white [TS]

00:52:07 ◼   ► house right they have a low in the high-end like it [TS]

00:52:09 ◼   ► yeah it does make portraits but i really do think one of the fascinating you know [TS]

00:52:14 ◼   ► that the whole like him some of the hand-wringing I i think the idea that [TS]

00:52:18 ◼   ► the addition is folly and it's a sign that the company is distracted has merit [TS]

00:52:23 ◼   ► I think that the hand-wringing over the difference between the sport aluminum [TS]

00:52:29 ◼   ► sport models in the stainless steel models though is misguided because to me [TS]

00:52:36 ◼   ► the range is reasonable but it's also fascinating to me that to me at a at a [TS]

00:52:42 ◼   ► functional level the sport models are actually better because the taptic [TS]

00:52:46 ◼   ► engine works better that the one thing that the stainless steel models have [TS]

00:52:50 ◼   ► that the sport don't that is functionally better is that the the [TS]

00:52:55 ◼   ► Sapphire cover for the display truly is scratch-proof like about mine i think [TS]

00:53:02 ◼   ► and i think that i still think they look better too [TS]

00:53:04 ◼   ► they do look better I think so too i do but i had a every other functional level [TS]

00:53:09 ◼   ► because the the taptic engine works better that the sport models is actually [TS]

00:53:14 ◼   ► a you know its superior and and so in terms of like the speed of the CPU and [TS]

00:53:20 ◼   ► the resolution of the display etc etc it's all the same exactly the same you [TS]

00:53:24 ◼   ► don't get you use you spend the extra money and all you're getting is the what [TS]

00:53:29 ◼   ► you can touch that the materials are better [TS]

00:53:32 ◼   ► so two observations one it's interesting that all the Hermes models are always [TS]

00:53:39 ◼   ► stainless steel there's no tradition and 2 i've been clicking around the site for [TS]

00:53:43 ◼   ► the last five minutes i cannot find the addition anywhere [TS]

00:53:45 ◼   ► yeah I honestly cannot find it on the website yeah it's down the memory it's [TS]

00:53:49 ◼   ► actually since I brought it up it's actually been at emphasized even less [TS]

00:53:54 ◼   ► no I oh there is Washington you could only find it in the by tab in all the [TS]

00:54:00 ◼   ► like product marketing tabs in rights and it's non-existent it's completely [TS]

00:54:04 ◼   ► not really gone right and I that makes me think i would place a bet here today [TS]

00:54:09 ◼   ► may fifth that when we see Apple watch to point out there is no addition model [TS]

00:54:15 ◼   ► that its rights or and I don't maybe they'll come up with a name but its [TS]

00:54:19 ◼   ► stainless steel and aluminum [TS]

00:54:21 ◼   ► I think the addition thing is gone and i know for a fact i have heard from [TS]

00:54:26 ◼   ► numerous at least several I wouldn't say numerous but several people within Apple [TS]

00:54:31 ◼   ► that there was significant debate within the company at high levels as to whether [TS]

00:54:37 ◼   ► edition should be a thing or not and that it was Johnny I've and you know [TS]

00:54:43 ◼   ► anybody who's under him maybe you know I almost certainly mark Newsome who pushed [TS]

00:54:51 ◼   ► for it and that there were others within the company who are like this is Rodino [TS]

00:54:55 ◼   ► this is not a good idea you know but that was more or less a Johnny I've idea [TS]

00:54:59 ◼   ► and that I think that all i mean obviously ultimately it came down to Tim [TS]

00:55:04 ◼   ► Cook and I think ultimately and now I don't know this this isn't you know that [TS]

00:55:08 ◼   ► the people i've talked to don't you know aren't the sort of people who would know [TS]

00:55:12 ◼   ► what Tim Cook was thinking but my my guess is that it wasn't that Tim Cook [TS]

00:55:19 ◼   ► wasn't so much that Tim Cook thought it was a good idea in and of itself but [TS]

00:55:22 ◼   ► that Tim Cook wanted to make Johnny happy and that making Johnny happy was [TS]

00:55:27 ◼   ► doing this edition thing and and there's something so telling about that and [TS]

00:55:34 ◼   ► whether or not it may be right but is this idea that Apple is at the very top [TS]

00:55:40 ◼   ► of the company still ruled by consensus and and the power of apples [TS]

00:55:46 ◼   ► organizational structure which i wrote about is the way it kind of forces [TS]

00:55:49 ◼   ► collaboration in groups have to depend on each other and there is no no [TS]

00:55:53 ◼   ► dictator but that worked in part a lot of apples organization was Steve Jobs [TS]

00:55:59 ◼   ► wanting to make an apple that could be his his instrument that he could play [TS]

00:56:03 ◼   ► right like that would do his bidding and like there's the counterweight of the [TS]

00:56:08 ◼   ► dictator at the top that's that's the way I friend is editor and I actually my [TS]

00:56:14 ◼   ► eye I think this is it up university i came up with a backpack then like the [TS]

00:56:19 ◼   ► best way to think about what jobs does that Apple's he's the editor or what did [TS]

00:56:22 ◼   ► Apple was he is the editor-in-chief likey [TS]

00:56:25 ◼   ► he didn't write the copy he didn't do the things he may have tweaked to [TS]

00:56:30 ◼   ► headline to make it that much more gripping [TS]

00:56:34 ◼   ► and he said no any any cut stuff in any any push the 14 he said all we should go [TS]

00:56:39 ◼   ► work on this sort of thing and for all the good things that Tim Cook has done [TS]

00:56:46 ◼   ► all the things that he's good at and to his credit he knows he's not that person [TS]

00:56:51 ◼   ► he's not a product person so I think he's empowered Johnny for sure but [TS]

00:56:55 ◼   ► johnny johnny has a distinct set of skills that are not I don't think as [TS]

00:57:01 ◼   ► broad as jobs were and and I don't know that he has the connection to and the [TS]

00:57:08 ◼   ► empathy for that the kind of common man and you see this i think some of the [TS]

00:57:13 ◼   ► design decisions as well particular when it comes to the user interface that that [TS]

00:57:17 ◼   ► jobs in either and you know you always hate to break out the you know they [TS]

00:57:24 ◼   ► missed Steve sort of thing when it comes to the watch it comes to having the [TS]

00:57:28 ◼   ► addition it comes to having these apps that were underpowered in this watchkit [TS]

00:57:31 ◼   ► idea which was a disaster like the watch should have if the watch was nothing but [TS]

00:57:36 ◼   ► the display and notifications like one it would be a great experience to what's [TS]

00:57:42 ◼   ► the crystal doesn't have access to that is with that but implicit in that [TS]

00:57:46 ◼   ► criticism is oh but of course they're coming soon right all the iphone watch [TS]

00:57:50 ◼   ► the apps to write and it's such a different framing about the watch [TS]

00:57:55 ◼   ► it's a framing of it's not what it is now but it has the potential to be like [TS]

00:57:59 ◼   ► it's great now but it's gonna be even better as opposed to it kind of sucks [TS]

00:58:04 ◼   ► now and it might be better in the future like just the tone of that is so [TS]

00:58:07 ◼   ► fundamentally different [TS]

00:58:10 ◼   ► I we've you know this is it's not just me you know but I feel like there's been [TS]

00:58:16 ◼   ► a researcher I i think it's sort of the the roughly one-tenth of the watches [TS]

00:58:21 ◼   ► one-year-old has sort of brought out a lot of you know big picture hey well [TS]

00:58:28 ◼   ► let's take it let's relook at Apple watch commentary and you know I've [TS]

00:58:34 ◼   ► certainly written a lot more about it recently then then I had for a while and [TS]

00:58:39 ◼   ► i'm with you i really do think fund at a fundamental level that shipping with an [TS]

00:58:46 ◼   ► SDK and [TS]

00:58:47 ◼   ► appstore was a mistake or maybe not an SDK but that the sdk should not have [TS]

00:58:52 ◼   ► been about quote-unquote apps it should have been an sdk for empowering smart [TS]

00:58:57 ◼   ► notifications right or the ski stuff right [TS]

00:59:00 ◼   ► the what the key stuff like being the key to your life [TS]

00:59:04 ◼   ► oh yeah yeah yeah yeah I see what you mean I I somehow thought you were [TS]

00:59:08 ◼   ► talking about like a keyboard [TS]

00:59:10 ◼   ► yeah on but yeah like the way that you there are apps like a I have this great [TS]

00:59:16 ◼   ► app I use that have long used this great app on the iphone called do tue that is [TS]

00:59:23 ◼   ► a it to me it's way better than it it's a way to set reminders either one time [TS]

00:59:30 ◼   ► reminders like go pick up the dry cleaning & friday on friday at five [TS]

00:59:35 ◼   ► o'clock or repeating reminders like every wednesday at ten o'clock i have a [TS]

00:59:40 ◼   ► due reminder that tells me to take the trash out that works better for me than [TS]

00:59:46 ◼   ► either putting them on my calendar or using like the clock app or something [TS]

00:59:52 ◼   ► like that because they're out of the way I don't want these things I don't want [TS]

00:59:55 ◼   ► my calendar to say take out the trash every day at ten o'clock i want [TS]

00:59:55 ◼   ► my calendar to say take out the trash every day at ten o'clock i want [TS]

01:00:00 ◼   ► a calendar to just tell me things that are actually novel so do is a great app [TS]

01:00:04 ◼   ► for that and the watch integration with do is great but because it lets me do [TS]

01:00:10 ◼   ► things like you can do let you snooze things and so you can snooze by like one [TS]

01:00:18 ◼   ► hour three hours or a whole day and they're just button so you just scroll [TS]

01:00:23 ◼   ► down on the Apple watch and it'll be like you know market is done because [TS]

01:00:27 ◼   ► you've done it or snooze for an hour three hours a day [TS]

01:00:31 ◼   ► great that's and it's a total like notification it's not really a nap [TS]

01:00:35 ◼   ► it doesn't launch an app it's just that the notification is smart in that way so [TS]

01:00:39 ◼   ► that sort of sdk definitely the Apple it's to its integral for what the apple [TS]

01:00:44 ◼   ► watch is actually good for so I don't want to say no sdk but definitely it [TS]

01:00:49 ◼   ► should not I I really feel firmly that it should not have apps because the [TS]

01:00:52 ◼   ► abscess it's such a bad experience every aspect of it from the beginning to the [TS]

01:00:56 ◼   ► end from launch actually just launching the app on that honeycomb screen all the [TS]

01:01:01 ◼   ► way to the end of using the app is a bad experience and I really think it [TS]

01:01:06 ◼   ► shouldn't have had it that way they waited to take this kind of full circle [TS]

01:01:11 ◼   ► the problem with do is there's you can integrate with Siri then like the in [TS]

01:01:17 ◼   ► which is siri one of the things i do use Siri for regularly is to do reminder [TS]

01:01:21 ◼   ► things particularly when I'm driving I wasn't driving and a i find it very very [TS]

01:01:26 ◼   ► helpful very helpful then but we're what 45 years on now [TS]

01:01:31 ◼   ► yeah five years on and there is no sdk for Cirie and meanwhile you have amazon [TS]

01:01:36 ◼   ► to do do the actual thing where the sdk is going spreading like wildfire [TS]

01:01:41 ◼   ► what wildfire and are there in the are there in some respects it gets this [TS]

01:01:46 ◼   ► whole tension is the Amazon kind of vernacular more limited yes you have to [TS]

01:01:51 ◼   ► kind of train yourself you have to use the right language right but but that [TS]

01:01:54 ◼   ► also imparts a degree of flexibility and an experimentation and easy to plug in [TS]

01:02:01 ◼   ► Tunis that is really works to its credit Emil apples trying to perfect this [TS]

01:02:06 ◼   ► natural language interface and have a have a an assistant that makes jokes to [TS]

01:02:11 ◼   ► you that make you want to throw your phone [TS]

01:02:13 ◼   ► on in the ocean when it makes a joke because it just misinterpreted what you [TS]

01:02:16 ◼   ► said four times in a row and it is just like hold their you know that is this [TS]

01:02:21 ◼   ► stop stop i want to get on the second stop stop i was getting worked up [TS]

01:02:28 ◼   ► alright look at my mother Scott Stewart doing that I mean I don't go get another [TS]

01:02:32 ◼   ► floor let son work you out and talk about one of my favorite longtime [TS]

01:02:37 ◼   ► sponsors of the show is automatic automatic is the connected car companies [TS]

01:02:42 ◼   ► that improves your driving and ingrates your car into your digital life you want [TS]

01:02:49 ◼   ► to go to automatic calm / the talk show and use the code the talk show you'll [TS]

01:02:53 ◼   ► get a 20-percent off your purchase what is its it's this little dingus that it's [TS]

01:02:58 ◼   ► like almost like a USB stick and every car made since I think like 1996-1997 I [TS]

01:03:06 ◼   ► it goes back a while has this same standard diagnostic port and automatic [TS]

01:03:12 ◼   ► Condell belt help you find it on your car but in other words it's like when [TS]

01:03:16 ◼   ► your car says like a service get service code pay for something like that you [TS]

01:03:23 ◼   ► don't know what that means [TS]

01:03:24 ◼   ► well it when you go to the mechanic you go to the the car service place they [TS]

01:03:30 ◼   ► plug into this diagnostic port and that's where they figure out what it is [TS]

01:03:35 ◼   ► that the car accident [TS]

01:03:36 ◼   ► automatic you can plug you plug automatic into this exact same port and [TS]

01:03:40 ◼   ► it reads all that stuff and it gets it every single cards really this is a I [TS]

01:03:47 ◼   ► had no idea until they started sponsoring the show that this port [TS]

01:03:49 ◼   ► existed and that it was cross platform across all makes and models of cars [TS]

01:03:54 ◼   ► it tells you everything you need to know it knows it can it can tell you things [TS]

01:03:58 ◼   ► about your fuel economy it can tell you exactly when there is an error or some [TS]

01:04:03 ◼   ► sort of services do exactly what service that means so you can know like hey this [TS]

01:04:08 ◼   ► is actually important you better go get service right away or this is the sort [TS]

01:04:12 ◼   ► of thing like yeah I better get this looked at soon but i can wait a week or [TS]

01:04:15 ◼   ► two if I need to add you know but it tells you all sorts of things tells you [TS]

01:04:19 ◼   ► whether the way that you're driving is maximizing your fuel efficiency or not [TS]

01:04:23 ◼   ► and [TS]

01:04:26 ◼   ► they have what they call that you know an app store and it lets you integrate [TS]

01:04:31 ◼   ► your car and you're driving with all sorts of things it really is the the [TS]

01:04:39 ◼   ► internet of things that connected life brought real because you can integrate [TS]

01:04:43 ◼   ► with things like nest your mechanic freshbooks and more so you could do [TS]

01:04:50 ◼   ► things like you can set it up [TS]

01:04:51 ◼   ► I mean this really is like the Future made real you can have things like once [TS]

01:04:56 ◼   ► you're within X miles of your house have your nest thermostat change the [TS]

01:05:04 ◼   ► temperature in your house you know in this is right now it's May so we're [TS]

01:05:08 ◼   ► heading more towards our conditioning so you turn on the air conditioning and [TS]

01:05:10 ◼   ► lower the temperature in the winter you can have it turn on the heat and and [TS]

01:05:14 ◼   ► raise the temperature really it works it is amazing and it even works with ifttt [TS]

01:05:21 ◼   ► if this then that which it literally makes almost unlimited possibilities of [TS]

01:05:27 ◼   ► the ways that you can integrate this with your life on its it is useful and [TS]

01:05:35 ◼   ► it is it trust me it is actually fun it is really cool to have a car that can do [TS]

01:05:40 ◼   ► stuff like this and just to get that information even just even if it didn't [TS]

01:05:43 ◼   ► integrate with other devices or something like that it's actually really [TS]

01:05:46 ◼   ► cool just to get the information it's totally private [TS]

01:05:52 ◼   ► automatic doesn't sell your data its to all they want you to do is just buy the [TS]

01:05:56 ◼   ► gadget and there's no monthly fees no subscription so normally the automatic [TS]

01:06:02 ◼   ► dingus is ninety-nine dollars but with you go through this URL go to automatic [TS]

01:06:09 ◼   ► calm / the talk show and remember the code the talk show and you'll save [TS]

01:06:14 ◼   ► twenty percent that's twenty bucks so for just 80 bucks you can get this thing [TS]

01:06:18 ◼   ► that makes your car the car you already have a wake or so go to automatic calm / [TS]

01:06:25 ◼   ► the talk show and by this then trust me i don't think there's ever been anybody [TS]

01:06:29 ◼   ► who's done this who's bought this automatic and who regrets it's totally [TS]

01:06:33 ◼   ► cool one of my favorite sponsors so my thanks to them [TS]

01:06:37 ◼   ► so you you get your license back [TS]

01:06:40 ◼   ► yeah well I driver that upset i've been lucky you know the vast majority of our [TS]

01:06:46 ◼   ► listeners i think still don't think you have a license [TS]

01:06:52 ◼   ► that's like that's like it doesn't ancient joke it this way i think well [TS]

01:06:57 ◼   ► the the longtime listeners well enjoy it [TS]

01:07:00 ◼   ► what happens i lost my license a few years ago for driving too fast but [TS]

01:07:05 ◼   ► allegedly it adds it adds to the myth [TS]

01:07:14 ◼   ► let's talk about Apple's order before we get too . because I feel like we've you [TS]

01:07:20 ◼   ► know so Apple to 10 days ago or so announced they're fine and you know the [TS]

01:07:26 ◼   ► January to March quarter which is for them in their calendar your cue to and [TS]

01:07:33 ◼   ► it was a bad for Apple because in and so far is it was the first time in 13 years [TS]

01:07:40 ◼   ► that they had a year-over-year decline in revenue and profit which is an [TS]

01:07:48 ◼   ► extraordinary streak but obviously you know even if you even if you you know [TS]

01:07:54 ◼   ► subscribe to the you know had to happen eventually which i think is you know [TS]

01:07:58 ◼   ► totally true it's impossible to for street like that to go in forever [TS]

01:08:03 ◼   ► it's extraordinary isn't it was an extraordinary run but you know it [TS]

01:08:08 ◼   ► obviously even if it was inevitable it can't be seen as anything other than bad [TS]

01:08:12 ◼   ► news [TS]

01:08:13 ◼   ► well it's okay it really it was expected in some respects an extremely last [TS]

01:08:22 ◼   ► quarter in the first like the the first quarter where people were kind of [TS]

01:08:26 ◼   ► begging them i was still pretty optimistic and I thought it was a pretty [TS]

01:08:29 ◼   ► good quarter and and my contention was actually the same thing that that you [TS]

01:08:34 ◼   ► just wrote last week was that well if you lie I charted out if you took their [TS]

01:08:40 ◼   ► results from 22,000 h 2014 he took it on an annual basis because you know they [TS]

01:08:45 ◼   ► they shifted when the iphone with soul was launched in the a.m although like [TS]

01:08:49 ◼   ► there's lots of [TS]

01:08:50 ◼   ► you can to do it on a quarter-on-quarter basis because stuff has changed but if [TS]

01:08:54 ◼   ► you put that on a graph and then forecasted forward what the expectations [TS]

01:09:00 ◼   ► would have been 4 2015 2016 they were actually right on track and they were [TS]

01:09:07 ◼   ► growing nicely [TS]

01:09:08 ◼   ► it just happened they picked up like a free 50 million users in 2015 [TS]

01:09:14 ◼   ► well let's take a look I became too let's take a step back though and just [TS]

01:09:16 ◼   ► emphasize that that what we're talking about here is that because two-thirds of [TS]

01:09:21 ◼   ► apples revenue comes from the iphone fundamentally right now and in for the [TS]

01:09:26 ◼   ► foreseeable future just as the iphone goes so goes Apple as a whole and what I [TS]

01:09:32 ◼   ► was the graph you're talking about was specifically it wasn't about Apple as a [TS]

01:09:35 ◼   ► whole it was specifically iphone sales right exactly yet no you're right on [TS]

01:09:39 ◼   ► telephone sales and and just experience its 23 it'sit's just it's a room it's [TS]

01:09:45 ◼   ► just an enormous as big as ipad and mac and services and and watch and [TS]

01:09:50 ◼   ► everything else Apple does which would still leave them as an enormous and [TS]

01:09:54 ◼   ► arguably it might even still be the most that's one-third yeah they'd still be [TS]

01:10:01 ◼   ► close to the most profitable company in tech or at least they'd be in a bit hard [TS]

01:10:05 ◼   ► without the arm profit because the iphone is also the the iphone is [TS]

01:10:10 ◼   ► significantly higher margin right products as well so it's it's a [TS]

01:10:13 ◼   ► two-thirds of revenue but it's like three-quarters of profit so it's yeah [TS]

01:10:16 ◼   ► absolutely but so fundamentally though as goes the iphone so goes apple and [TS]

01:10:21 ◼   ► it's the I the decline and iphone sales correlates directly to the decline and [TS]

01:10:26 ◼   ► everything else right is it right and so and so I came out of the first quarter [TS]

01:10:31 ◼   ► pretty optimistic and then this quarter came along and I frankly completely [TS]

01:10:38 ◼   ► changed my view like I think that we got a lot more information this quarter [TS]

01:10:42 ◼   ► about lots of things that frankly discredited a lot of the things that [TS]

01:10:48 ◼   ► Apple itself told us in previous quarters and cast a lot of doubt on the [TS]

01:10:54 ◼   ► on the iphone and and I actually think that the situation is worse then uh then [TS]

01:11:01 ◼   ► the new row last week for example i think there is [TS]

01:11:04 ◼   ► you and reason for concern and just be super clear that the iphone is not going [TS]

01:11:08 ◼   ► anywhere like this is a discussion about like the growth prospects of the iphone [TS]

01:11:14 ◼   ► which to your point are about the growth prospects of Apple which by extension [TS]

01:11:18 ◼   ► are about the stock the stock is about the future growth opportunity to stock [TS]

01:11:21 ◼   ► is not it's not a scorecard it's not it's not a scoreboard what we've done in [TS]

01:11:25 ◼   ► the past and i now have very serious like I wrote a thing this weekend the [TS]

01:11:31 ◼   ► daily update like I kind of went through like one [TS]

01:11:34 ◼   ► there's a data point that is different than I thought it was and there are [TS]

01:11:38 ◼   ► three assumptions that i had about the iphone business before that I have now [TS]

01:11:42 ◼   ► changed my mind assumptions about and that makes and as a whole it makes me [TS]

01:11:46 ◼   ► much more bearish there's an interesting point you're the one who pointed out to [TS]

01:11:50 ◼   ► me that not publicly I don't think until now on the show but in when i wrote i [TS]

01:11:54 ◼   ► took the the the stands last week in my the written piece that wandering [TS]

01:12:00 ◼   ► fireball that what apple announced for q2 was exactly what they had forecast in [TS]

01:12:07 ◼   ► q1 and therefore it whether you think this is what however bad or ok you think [TS]

01:12:13 ◼   ► this is it shouldn't have resulted in a jolt in the stock but the stock jolted [TS]

01:12:19 ◼   ► badly downward at six or seven percent which is if for apple is about it was [TS]

01:12:26 ◼   ► something like 40 billion dollars in market cap just poof and you pointed out [TS]

01:12:31 ◼   ► that that's not true [TS]

01:12:33 ◼   ► like for q2 yes they were what they announced was exactly within the [TS]

01:12:37 ◼   ► guidance from three months ago but you pointed out and I completely missed this [TS]

01:12:41 ◼   ► that the the part that was a surprise or was unexpected or quite frankly contrary [TS]

01:12:50 ◼   ► to what Apple had said before was what they're now guiding for q3 which is that [TS]

01:12:56 ◼   ► q3 this current quarter april-to-june is actually going to be the worst of it and [TS]

01:13:03 ◼   ► we're that's contrary and people you know and I I've i think i tweeted about [TS]

01:13:07 ◼   ► it i didn't write about on during fireworks people are like no they never [TS]

01:13:11 ◼   ► guide more than one quarter in advance so they you know that's not true that [TS]

01:13:16 ◼   ► they that they misguided on cue [TS]

01:13:18 ◼   ► three but they did indirectly because they said in january and their quarterly [TS]

01:13:23 ◼   ► results we think that this upcoming q2 will be the worst and now they're saying [TS]

01:13:29 ◼   ► and that now they're saying actually q3 is going to be the worst and that's that [TS]

01:13:34 ◼   ► is a huge thing that's actually that is significant and it's it's it's worrisome [TS]

01:13:40 ◼   ► it's worse in two ways [TS]

01:13:43 ◼   ► so the first reason so the desk you corazon be worse the first reason to be [TS]

01:13:47 ◼   ► worse is they're taking their basically saying there is a rundown inventory to [TS]

01:13:51 ◼   ► the tune of 22 billion dollars and what that means and they're there [TS]

01:13:57 ◼   ► contrary to what people there's kind of thing a few years ago about ship vs old [TS]

01:14:00 ◼   ► apple and every other manufacturer calculates based on ships not unsold [TS]

01:14:04 ◼   ► because it's just impossible for them to know except for apple stores which only [TS]

01:14:09 ◼   ► selling actually a relatively small fraction of iphones that there's no way [TS]

01:14:12 ◼   ► for them to know when it's sold [TS]

01:14:14 ◼   ► and so it is calculated schip vs sold and if you look at their their financial [TS]

01:14:18 ◼   ► reports you can see like the inventory and what's in the channel that sort of [TS]

01:14:21 ◼   ► stuff and basically over the last two quarters they've been significantly [TS]

01:14:26 ◼   ► increasing inventory the only reason they were up in the first quarter was [TS]

01:14:32 ◼   ► because they ran up inventory and the only reason they met their guidance in [TS]

01:14:36 ◼   ► the second quarter was because of the inventory thing as well and so and so [TS]

01:14:40 ◼   ► now they're saying a third quarter we're gonna have to run this inventory down so [TS]

01:14:44 ◼   ► we're very they guided way lower the advantages they're going to meet their [TS]

01:14:47 ◼   ► guidance again right but had they played the inventory game fairly to put it to [TS]

01:14:53 ◼   ► the lack of a better word they would have missed last quarter and they would [TS]

01:14:56 ◼   ► have missed the first quarter as well and and so so one like they actually if [TS]

01:15:01 ◼   ► they were running their business as they've traditionally run it this would [TS]

01:15:06 ◼   ► actually be the second miss in a row it instead of being the second barely make [TS]

01:15:11 ◼   ► making guys that's one but then too [TS]

01:15:14 ◼   ► and so you can play and it's easy i would just back up keep your number two [TS]

01:15:17 ◼   ► but i would just back up and say that Apple has under the in the Tim Cook era [TS]

01:15:20 ◼   ► and that's not just him cookies see CEO but coo he's there so operationally [TS]

01:15:26 ◼   ► efficient that the ship vs sold thing was easy for us APPL people [TS]

01:15:31 ◼   ► to mock other makers for because with Apple it was it as a 424 any device has [TS]

01:15:37 ◼   ► largely been the relevant because they're so operationally efficient that [TS]

01:15:41 ◼   ► what they ship is what they sell exactly so you with it was actually a fair [TS]

01:15:45 ◼   ► criticism even if like Ron at technical basis it wasn't quite right like the [TS]

01:15:49 ◼   ► implication of the criticisms actually totally fair no you're exactly right [TS]

01:15:52 ◼   ► tend to keep inventory solo and that they really do you know whatever they [TS]

01:15:56 ◼   ► make is what they're selling you know they've been named they make what they [TS]

01:15:59 ◼   ► sell and they said what they make but this in this case they've obviously made [TS]

01:16:03 ◼   ► you know they they got ahead of themselves in manufacturing they they [TS]

01:16:08 ◼   ► did so in Seoul so wonder the q3 is going to be worse because of the two [TS]

01:16:12 ◼   ► billion but eat [TS]

01:16:14 ◼   ► here's what here's what's really concerning even if you take out that two [TS]

01:16:17 ◼   ► billion the q3 is still going to be worse at which means like when they said [TS]

01:16:23 ◼   ► that and they said that at the end of January which means there was a month [TS]

01:16:27 ◼   ► into the current quarter they said that all we think the next court is gonna be [TS]

01:16:31 ◼   ► the worst quarter and it turns out like they were wrong like it they don't know [TS]

01:16:38 ◼   ► what's happening with the iphone friendly right you haven't seen Apple [TS]

01:16:42 ◼   ► bent be this this one a curative the end and it that's just this quarter i mean i [TS]

01:16:50 ◼   ► think we can get to their earnings calls last year which are actually for me [TS]

01:16:55 ◼   ► personally or even more concerning some respects [TS]

01:16:58 ◼   ► yeah you wrote about that recently I i did in and I like so I so it i like [TS]

01:17:05 ◼   ► maytee firefights let me paraphrase maybe I can do a better job paraphrasing [TS]

01:17:08 ◼   ► then then you can because you wrote the piece but paraphrasing and then you can [TS]

01:17:13 ◼   ► correct me or clarify but basically zoom out big picture what we're seeing is [TS]

01:17:21 ◼   ► that the iphone 6 last year was and not a anomaly in terms of its popularity it [TS]

01:17:28 ◼   ► was off the curve and but i think i think that the reason was twofold i [TS]

01:17:35 ◼   ► think it was that that was when they hit what's the carrier in china china mobile [TS]

01:17:40 ◼   ► china mobile [TS]

01:17:42 ◼   ► and it was pent-up demand for larger iphones and with the long rumors you [TS]

01:17:51 ◼   ► know the year-long rumor that hey apple's next iphone is actually going to [TS]

01:17:55 ◼   ► be have they're going to have a bigger screen version and anybody who was maybe [TS]

01:17:59 ◼   ► leaning towards upgrading or getting an iphone was like well i'll wait for that [TS]

01:18:04 ◼   ► bigger screen one because i want a bigger screen and that there was so much [TS]

01:18:07 ◼   ► pent-up demand for that it that it was an anomalously popular but if you look [TS]

01:18:18 ◼   ► back a year at what Tim Cook said on quarterly these quarterly and an analyst [TS]

01:18:23 ◼   ► calls he downplayed that it was you know hehe more or less made it sound as [TS]

01:18:28 ◼   ► though this is what he expected in that this was the growth that they you know [TS]

01:18:31 ◼   ► this was organic growth that wasn't anomalous growth exactly a good he was [TS]

01:18:37 ◼   ► pressed on every single so from the first to learn is called he volunteer [TS]

01:18:41 ◼   ► that [TS]

01:18:41 ◼   ► oh there's tons of people to have an upgraded yet we have tons of greenfield [TS]

01:18:44 ◼   ► and and by the q3 q4 the analyst we're getting a little little skeptical of [TS]

01:18:49 ◼   ► this is tony second ago who asks really good questions every every call and he's [TS]

01:18:54 ◼   ► been a great skeptic along and he was pressing click on this like look you [TS]

01:18:58 ◼   ► you're so you are you sure that you're not poke not just the the delayed 5s [TS]

01:19:04 ◼   ► upgrades but also pulling forward upgrades for people upgrading early [TS]

01:19:07 ◼   ► because they want to get the big screen phone he's like are you sure that you're [TS]

01:19:11 ◼   ► in Temple tim cook four times row and I quoted all four times in in my update [TS]

01:19:16 ◼   ► like he said oh no like we think there's tons of great opportunity here only this [TS]

01:19:21 ◼   ► fractions upgraded blah blah and and it was and the reason i'm personally [TS]

01:19:27 ◼   ► frustrated like I don't we talk to this one-on-one like the only thing worse [TS]

01:19:32 ◼   ► than being wrong is letting something that you said that was wrong like [TS]

01:19:35 ◼   ► persist out there inside you want to correct it and make sure what it is and [TS]

01:19:38 ◼   ► i wrote a piece last fall like saying stop during the iphone and one of my [TS]

01:19:42 ◼   ► core things was that this upgrade . because I can't believe cook I believed [TS]

01:19:48 ◼   ► him when he said that we're not seeing an upgrade right are the ordinary [TS]

01:19:51 ◼   ► there's a there's a ton of opportunity and for him to come back on this call [TS]

01:19:54 ◼   ► and say all [TS]

01:19:55 ◼   ► well there was a massive upgrade cycle last year and obviously as you would [TS]

01:19:58 ◼   ► expect to be slower this year it was I mean I don't know the right word for you [TS]

01:20:04 ◼   ► because it's in the record he he's changed his tune and in Tony called him [TS]

01:20:11 ◼   ► out on the call and cook actually got a little annoyed headed which was in [TS]

01:20:15 ◼   ► really interesting because Tony had him dead to rights because he was the same [TS]

01:20:18 ◼   ► one I was asking the questions last year and I I don't think Cook was doing it on [TS]

01:20:24 ◼   ► purpose I because that would be stupid will be super fusions one because you [TS]

01:20:28 ◼   ► get in trouble too because he look if cooked it on purpose of setting apple [TS]

01:20:34 ◼   ► for a fall like apples [TS]

01:20:36 ◼   ► no one of the ppl investment community don't believe Tim Cook right now like [TS]

01:20:41 ◼   ► with because he's changed exactly what he's saying and so he's hurt his [TS]

01:20:46 ◼   ► credibility [TS]

01:20:47 ◼   ► I just kind of think that Apple didn't didn't know why did they didn't didn't [TS]

01:20:53 ◼   ► really do the research on upgrades and I suspect before this quarter is called [TS]

01:20:58 ◼   ► like how do we explain this [TS]

01:20:59 ◼   ► they sent some intern to set to like figure out what are the upgrade rates in [TS]

01:21:02 ◼   ► previous cycles how does that compare to this cycle and they're like oh crap we [TS]

01:21:06 ◼   ► were saying the wrong thing last year actually while the ordinary and and we [TS]

01:21:11 ◼   ► have much sore upgrades as a result this year and and that's how that kind of [TS]

01:21:15 ◼   ► played out [TS]

01:21:16 ◼   ► yeah I died thinking I think you knew called it out in one of your daily [TS]

01:21:22 ◼   ► updates was that it was I daddy finances named Tony second Cox on second alley or [TS]

01:21:31 ◼   ► something [TS]

01:21:31 ◼   ► I was so annoyed because I listen to the call because I I sleep through texts [TS]

01:21:35 ◼   ► during the night here if I woke up and as soon as cook said that like my radar [TS]

01:21:40 ◼   ► went up because i remember have said was I'm like and I'm like cookies i don't [TS]

01:21:43 ◼   ► recall scenario before that notice cook in cooks opening remarks he said all [TS]

01:21:48 ◼   ► this upgrade cycle ball in a medium like that's the key of my daily update I'm [TS]

01:21:52 ◼   ► gonna nail him on his boy because and that's wrong and it totally ask the [TS]

01:21:56 ◼   ► question like damn you Tony you just stole my Thunder right so so twofold [TS]

01:22:02 ◼   ► basically and again if I'm summarizing this wrong tell me but to foam [TS]

01:22:08 ◼   ► one it seems like Apple misinterpret a year ago Apple misinterpreted the [TS]

01:22:14 ◼   ► successes success are six is success the iphone the original iphone 6 and 6 plus [TS]

01:22:18 ◼   ► they get misinterpreted their success as being part of the the growth of iphone [TS]

01:22:28 ◼   ► in general as opposed to being exceptional out of line with the [TS]

01:22:33 ◼   ► expected growth they they thought they'd this is you know this is part of the [TS]

01:22:37 ◼   ► growth curve but the truth was it was outside the growth curve they missed [TS]

01:22:42 ◼   ► that and then this year they are clearly overestimated the success and I think [TS]

01:22:50 ◼   ► basically for the same reasons that because they thought the six was normal [TS]

01:22:53 ◼   ► they thought the success was going to continue on that path and it did not [TS]

01:22:58 ◼   ► well I think they knew the six was out of whack but i think they attributed it [TS]

01:23:02 ◼   ► mostly to being them acquiring new customers as opposed to pulled for doing [TS]

01:23:07 ◼   ► is about as well as opposed to pull for upgrades one thing that's really [TS]

01:23:10 ◼   ► interesting and this is this is if you want to have a bull case for apple today [TS]

01:23:14 ◼   ► this is probably the one to take is if you invert 2015 2016 that linear why I [TS]

01:23:23 ◼   ► talked about actually continues why because right now Apple is probably [TS]

01:23:27 ◼   ► going to come in with about 200 million iphones but 210 million or so for two [TS]

01:23:31 ◼   ► for fiscal year 2016 and and this is nothing that change Apple didn't say but [TS]

01:23:37 ◼   ► they hinted that 2016 would be about the same as 2015 2015 20 or 30 million and [TS]

01:23:43 ◼   ► so it seemed like all they have this nice boost on the way but but it that's [TS]

01:23:46 ◼   ► clearly not happening one but two if you invert that and you pretend that 2015 [TS]

01:23:51 ◼   ► was 205 million and 2016 was 230 million that actual that with that wine is [TS]

01:23:58 ◼   ► almost perfectly linear likes an r-squared 2.98 like it's incredibly like [TS]

01:24:02 ◼   ► straight on and you could say oh they just got all the 216 buyers just all [TS]

01:24:08 ◼   ► body year early and 2017 can revert back to normal like if that is I think the [TS]

01:24:14 ◼   ► bull case to make for for 2017 in the iphone 7 I I don't buy it [TS]

01:24:22 ◼   ► that is that is the bull case i can tell you i don't buy it if you want it [TS]

01:24:29 ◼   ► well tell me tell me why you don't buy it i don't really the reason you don't [TS]

01:24:33 ◼   ► want a while I it let me meet anybody you first you first i think that the [TS]

01:24:38 ◼   ► extraordinary growth of the iphone was fueled by adding new carriers around the [TS]

01:24:45 ◼   ► world and they've already added most of the carrier's did [TS]

01:24:50 ◼   ► there's there's no big pickings left and the up you get that that's 100 it that's [TS]

01:24:56 ◼   ► when I presented it like that they they like it i actually tried to research [TS]

01:25:00 ◼   ► this and I spent time I spent days on this and it was so hard to figure out I [TS]

01:25:04 ◼   ► i need to hire an intern to like try to figure this out and try to measure what [TS]

01:25:09 ◼   ► when they went into new carriers in new countries and how that contribute iphone [TS]

01:25:12 ◼   ► growth but one thing that was always so striking about apple for years is how [TS]

01:25:16 ◼   ► accurate the forecasts were right they would miss on the high side button [TS]

01:25:19 ◼   ► missing the high side by the exact same percentage every single time right right [TS]

01:25:22 ◼   ► it was uncanny and then they said oh from now on we're actually gonna make [TS]

01:25:26 ◼   ► sure be more concerned we're going to make our guidance actually accurate and [TS]

01:25:29 ◼   ► then they were accurate by the exact same amount every time and I wonder how [TS]

01:25:33 ◼   ► much of that was they knew which carriers are coming online in numerous [TS]

01:25:36 ◼   ► countries are coming online and they knew because they've done this bunch of [TS]

01:25:39 ◼   ► times we're gonna get this carrier has has has the certain number of customers [TS]

01:25:43 ◼   ► we get a certain percent of those customers we know that's going to happen [TS]

01:25:46 ◼   ► and they actually built this into contracts right cares had to had to [TS]

01:25:49 ◼   ► guarantee a certain number of subscribers and and so they get a huge [TS]

01:25:55 ◼   ► factor and iphone growth was just increasing the available market of the [TS]

01:25:58 ◼   ► iphone and once you got the last one flat like that in there is verizon's ntt [TS]

01:26:04 ◼   ► docomo been a bunch of small ones in general but the last the big one was [TS]

01:26:08 ◼   ► China Mobile in China Mobile came on in 2014 and then the iphone 6 launched and [TS]

01:26:14 ◼   ► and that was the last one and now that is gone and the question for growth for [TS]

01:26:21 ◼   ► the iphone 7 is not just getting people to upgrade because there's lots of [TS]

01:26:25 ◼   ► evidence that that's extending we can put that as well but where's the new [TS]

01:26:28 ◼   ► user is going to come from right yes people are switching I i do think [TS]

01:26:32 ◼   ► they're switching and I think the iphone will get growth from switchers [TS]

01:26:35 ◼   ► but that's countered by the upgrade cycle being allocated for two reasons 1i [TS]

01:26:41 ◼   ► phones are just getting better and better and and to the bigger Apple gets [TS]

01:26:47 ◼   ► the more they get away you think more they get into like the mainstream and [TS]

01:26:51 ◼   ► people that just aren't that concerned with performance like us geeks are gonna [TS]

01:26:54 ◼   ► upgrade all the time but but the farther away they get from us the the West [TS]

01:26:59 ◼   ► likely it is that they're going to upgrade and you combine that with with [TS]

01:27:03 ◼   ► carriers moving to these these plans where once your phone is paid off your [TS]

01:27:06 ◼   ► bill actually goes down like there's I'm skeptical where the new users gonna come [TS]

01:27:11 ◼   ► from [TS]

01:27:13 ◼   ► yeah it's it's crazy if you think about it I mean it was only january $MONTH [TS]

01:27:18 ◼   ► I mean that's four years into the iphone that it was available on a second [TS]

01:27:22 ◼   ► carrier in the US which is verizon i mean it's it's a long time to spread it [TS]

01:27:28 ◼   ► you know they're there was so much potential and that if you look at the [TS]

01:27:34 ◼   ► absolutely explosive growth i mean i forget which iphone but it was well into [TS]

01:27:40 ◼   ► the iphone four era maybe even the 4s where is the forest that was like [TS]

01:27:44 ◼   ► everyone's mind but it wasn't just that each iphone outsold its predecessor it [TS]

01:27:50 ◼   ► was that each iphone outsold all of its predecessors combined right right it ull [TS]

01:27:55 ◼   ► to like the 4th 5th maybe even that sixth iphone generation outsold all of [TS]

01:28:04 ◼   ► the previous iphones combined and one before it outsold all of its previous [TS]

01:28:08 ◼   ► ones combined it that that the the slope on the growth curve [TS]

01:28:13 ◼   ► it'sit's just phenomena it's almost incomprehensible but it was fueled [TS]

01:28:17 ◼   ► largely by yes lots and lots of people wanted iphones once they you know a year [TS]

01:28:23 ◼   ► or two in and they understood what it was but they couldn't get it because or [TS]

01:28:26 ◼   ► or thought they couldn't get it because they didn't want to switch carriers or [TS]

01:28:29 ◼   ► it wasn't or literally wasn't even available in our country at on any [TS]

01:28:33 ◼   ► carrier even if they were willing to switch and and this is especially this [TS]

01:28:39 ◼   ► is such a danger zone for companies where you kind of Miss attribute your [TS]

01:28:43 ◼   ► success and the iphone just grew for so long and is it's easy for [TS]

01:28:48 ◼   ► even someone as smartest him cooking in his executive team to to just assume [TS]

01:28:54 ◼   ► that's going to go on forever and to discount like structural changes in the [TS]

01:28:58 ◼   ► market where you're you're changing like what if you if the iphone will always [TS]

01:29:02 ◼   ► have X percent of the market if you there's two functions like you can [TS]

01:29:06 ◼   ► either increase that the percentage of the market or you can change the market [TS]

01:29:09 ◼   ► size and four years [TS]

01:29:11 ◼   ► Apple was changing the market size slowly and steadily and in some respects [TS]

01:29:16 ◼   ► that's why that you could argue that's why the growth went on for so long i'm [TS]

01:29:19 ◼   ► like someone like Samsung like Samsung's great strength has always been drawn [TS]

01:29:23 ◼   ► every single carrier in every single market and they have they have this [TS]

01:29:28 ◼   ► massive distribution network and that's why they just came out of nowhere to [TS]

01:29:32 ◼   ► dominate android because they had this network built it right and it's like [TS]

01:29:35 ◼   ► they come in they're like they come to verizon they're like we want you to [TS]

01:29:38 ◼   ► carry this in verizon says something like okay we'll do it but we want to put [TS]

01:29:42 ◼   ► our own custom skin on the UI samsung just happens like go ahead [TS]

01:29:47 ◼   ► sounds like you got a chick like it's like they just stick out their hand for [TS]

01:29:52 ◼   ► the handshake like you got it [TS]

01:29:53 ◼   ► well I don't be paranoid people dissed them especially in apple world but like [TS]

01:29:57 ◼   ► there's something admirable it's like holy valid strategy and it and the [TS]

01:30:02 ◼   ► people of course samsung like kind of compression down-to-earth which you know [TS]

01:30:06 ◼   ► was predictable but don't discount the fact they made billions and billions and [TS]

01:30:11 ◼   ► billions of dollars along the way right I you know I had I i agree i do that [TS]

01:30:17 ◼   ► there an end to me there is something there's obviously something different [TS]

01:30:21 ◼   ► about samsung compared to all the other Android handset makers in the way that [TS]

01:30:25 ◼   ► you know that it in in a normal market all those very if you if you take our [TS]

01:30:35 ◼   ► let's just take samsung out take samsung out and all of a sudden the entire [TS]

01:30:39 ◼   ► android market is more or less indistinguishable I mean there's you [TS]

01:30:43 ◼   ► know obviously some some more than others but there's really no standout [TS]

01:30:46 ◼   ► manufacturer samsung is a standout manufacturer though and it yeah you know [TS]

01:30:53 ◼   ► it there's there's something there's something there and I had so much [TS]

01:30:58 ◼   ► literary devices are the devices don't speak for themselves [TS]

01:31:02 ◼   ► it's something that they do strategically right because there's ways [TS]

01:31:07 ◼   ► to compete other than the product Apple has chosen to compete on the product so [TS]

01:31:12 ◼   ► i think people in the actual apple world kind of trigger on that but you can [TS]

01:31:17 ◼   ► compete the distribution you can compete you a unity through marketing there's [TS]

01:31:20 ◼   ► lots of places to compete and Amazon like like that they were available to [TS]

01:31:24 ◼   ► everyone and particularly when the everyone like the classic examples [TS]

01:31:28 ◼   ► actually a motorola with the droid phone which but this is what's that's an [TS]

01:31:33 ◼   ► example of what Samsung did worldwide where verizon was like work it like were [TS]

01:31:38 ◼   ► bleeding customers because we don't have the iphone like we need an alternative [TS]

01:31:42 ◼   ► and like and some Motorola's best years were like it was like that year when the [TS]

01:31:48 ◼   ► droid music vs everywhere because they just needed an alternative and Samsung [TS]

01:31:53 ◼   ► filled that role all over the world right before we leave the topic of [TS]

01:31:59 ◼   ► iphone let's talk about the s strategy and I don't want to put words in your [TS]

01:32:07 ◼   ► mouth but I think you're questioning whether the s strategy can continue [TS]

01:32:11 ◼   ► which is that it to put another way the tick-tock strategy of here's a new form [TS]

01:32:17 ◼   ► factor the iphone let's just call it the iphone 7 and a year later [TS]

01:32:23 ◼   ► here's the same form factor but with a whole bunch of new stuff inside the [TS]

01:32:27 ◼   ► iphone 7s then the iphone 8 than the iphone 8's than the iphone nine iphone [TS]

01:32:33 ◼   ► 9s and that's put aside whether you do or whether any of us think that Apple is [TS]

01:32:39 ◼   ► going to keep numbering the iphones but you know this whole one year is a new [TS]

01:32:44 ◼   ► form factor the next year is the same form factor with an s you do question [TS]

01:32:49 ◼   ► whether they should continue with that correct [TS]

01:32:52 ◼   ► absolutely you know absolutely and I think one of the challenges with [TS]

01:32:57 ◼   ► technology and Generalissimo species we see this with iPads is that at some [TS]

01:33:02 ◼   ► point it just gets it's good enough for the majority of people and whatever [TS]

01:33:06 ◼   ► whatever employed the success is a big jump over the over the six in many [TS]

01:33:10 ◼   ► respects but it's a big jump that doesn't really make a big difference in [TS]

01:33:13 ◼   ► the way people use their phones day today at least [TS]

01:33:16 ◼   ► the majority of people and but something that's so powerful with the iphone it [TS]

01:33:21 ◼   ► has made it such an iconic devices made it such a profitable device and in the [TS]

01:33:25 ◼   ► u.s. to a degree but particularly in places like China is the status of it [TS]

01:33:30 ◼   ► like it is the bit we talked about the beginning it's the best phone in and it [TS]

01:33:34 ◼   ► means something that you carry it and there is no way this is why I think [TS]

01:33:39 ◼   ► they've they've introduced the new colors on the S models because that can [TS]

01:33:43 ◼   ► show you have the newest model but I think they'd like if they want to push [TS]

01:33:49 ◼   ► growth in we should talk about China because i think that that's the other [TS]

01:33:52 ◼   ► real worried . for me [TS]

01:33:53 ◼   ► uh I question whether you can stick with the same form factor for two years [TS]

01:33:59 ◼   ► because the thing about the phone is a personal device you carry with you pull [TS]

01:34:03 ◼   ► it out we sit on the cafe put on the table like it it is like a car in that [TS]

01:34:07 ◼   ► respect where it matters like what car you get out of and I question how long [TS]

01:34:12 ◼   ► they can stick with this strategy where you don't know if you're using last [TS]

01:34:17 ◼   ► year's for this year's phone and I sounds super shallow but it's a reality [TS]

01:34:20 ◼   ► i I don't I don't necessarily question that going forward in terms of where [TS]

01:34:28 ◼   ► Apple goes in the future but I want to take a moment just to point out and I [TS]

01:34:34 ◼   ► suspect a lot of people listening might succumb to this fallacious thinking [TS]

01:34:39 ◼   ► because I've definitely seen it on Twitter and commentary on you know what [TS]

01:34:42 ◼   ► I phone you know what Apple it needs needs to ought to do with the iphone [TS]

01:34:46 ◼   ► going forward and I've noticed it for years is that people who are the the [TS]

01:34:52 ◼   ► more closely attuned you are 22 this if you're the less less casual you are of [TS]

01:34:58 ◼   ► an iphone user if you're you know an obsessive and you know quite frankly if [TS]

01:35:01 ◼   ► you're listening to this podcast you're probably rail pretty devastating and the [TS]

01:35:07 ◼   ► tech gadget journalism racket in general has long I mean forever right from the [TS]

01:35:17 ◼   ► 3gs the 4s 5s has always under appreciated the success of those s [TS]

01:35:24 ◼   ► models and and there's I think a conventional wisdom that [TS]

01:35:28 ◼   ► people are only eight people that the general public the world is only [TS]

01:35:33 ◼   ► interested in the new form factors and that they see because the s-1 look the [TS]

01:35:40 ◼   ► same [TS]

01:35:41 ◼   ► they're not as interested in them and that's not true at all because this is [TS]

01:35:45 ◼   ► the 6s is the first iphone that hasn't outsold its predecessor the 4s outsold [TS]

01:35:50 ◼   ► the for the 3gs outsold the 3g and the 5s outsold the five [TS]

01:35:56 ◼   ► I have no idea why I went in that order for 35 but that's what it up until now [TS]

01:36:03 ◼   ► no and no s model has failed to outsell its predecessor and like i said at least [TS]

01:36:09 ◼   ► up until the 4s the 4s outsold all previous iphones combined so now part of [TS]

01:36:15 ◼   ► that as we've just said you know 10 15 minutes ago was about the worldwide [TS]

01:36:20 ◼   ► expansion to more countries and carriers but it's really just the obsessives who [TS]

01:36:27 ◼   ► say im bored by the form factor but now that we are III but I do agree to though [TS]

01:36:34 ◼   ► that it's it's so old I mean we're almost you know next year is going to be [TS]

01:36:37 ◼   ► the 10-year anniversary of anywhere where a decade into the iPhone era it's [TS]

01:36:42 ◼   ► amazing that the world has changed you know it's there's no way you know what [TS]

01:36:45 ◼   ► was true you know in the early years is not going to be true going forward it's [TS]

01:36:49 ◼   ► you know it like everything in technology it's you know if there's no [TS]

01:36:54 ◼   ► way to expect a what happened before to continue happening so I don't know when [TS]

01:37:00 ◼   ► that weeds what that leads to i mean the the big engine for China or three [TS]

01:37:06 ◼   ► biggest rivals gameplay the big engine for apple has been has been china and [TS]

01:37:10 ◼   ► that's been the promise that is this massive market that we're growing it's [TS]

01:37:14 ◼   ► gonna be awesome and I'm exceptionally worried about China now and and for a [TS]

01:37:21 ◼   ► few reasons so first off apple was up in china in the first quarter but people [TS]

01:37:26 ◼   ► forget and I actually forgot originally in october or in 2014 f-16 launched the [TS]

01:37:32 ◼   ► Chinese government actually held up the approval of the iphone 6 and even though [TS]

01:37:37 ◼   ► Apple intended to watch in September with everyone else they didn't watch it [TS]

01:37:41 ◼   ► until october seven [TS]

01:37:42 ◼   ► teen so on a year-over-year comparison you are comparing two and a half months [TS]

01:37:47 ◼   ► versus three months and had you done a straight-up comparison actually in q1 it [TS]

01:37:52 ◼   ► would've been down in China 12 in q2 it was massively down in china in greater [TS]

01:37:57 ◼   ► china and and Tim Cook try to take care of a 0 in greater in China itself is [TS]

01:38:02 ◼   ► only down seven percent or eleven percent or whatever it was it all the [TS]

01:38:06 ◼   ► drop was in Hong Kong the problem with that is a lot of those hong kong cells [TS]

01:38:11 ◼   ► were great market imports into China and as availability increased in China it [TS]

01:38:17 ◼   ► wasn't its natural at the hong kong market would decrease and I think that's [TS]

01:38:21 ◼   ► a red herring because I i suspect the vast majority of the Hong Kong which was [TS]

01:38:25 ◼   ► just demolished was people who used to buy in Hong Kong and smuggle into China [TS]

01:38:31 ◼   ► and China no longer did so because people just spotted in China those [TS]

01:38:35 ◼   ► widely available and so I think you do have looked at as a whole and it was [TS]

01:38:38 ◼   ► down like twenty-seven percent or something like a huge amount and this is [TS]

01:38:43 ◼   ► really really concerning because this is supposed to be the the the engine up [TS]

01:38:47 ◼   ► because you can you don't one it's not just that you need upgraders you who are [TS]

01:38:53 ◼   ► arguably not upgrading is frequently you need to find new customers and the new [TS]

01:38:57 ◼   ► customer engine was supposed to be China and and the problem is that Tim Cook [TS]

01:39:04 ◼   ► saying always sold a ton with the 60 of course was done this year [TS]

01:39:08 ◼   ► well get that's an upgrade story where are the new customers and they're not [TS]

01:39:12 ◼   ► materializing and you say all China's macroeconomic environment is challenging [TS]

01:39:16 ◼   ► it is it is a problem but if you're in a green field environment where your you [TS]

01:39:23 ◼   ► have so many new people to sell to the macro economics don't affect you like [TS]

01:39:28 ◼   ► apple in 2008 was not affected by the great recession right because there was [TS]

01:39:33 ◼   ► so many people to sell iphones to it didn't slow the company hardly at all [TS]

01:39:37 ◼   ► yeah I wouldn't say they're related but it was that they had such there they [TS]

01:39:41 ◼   ► were in such a period of growth that they their growth exceeded the the [TS]

01:39:46 ◼   ► positive aspects of their ability to grow exceeded the negative aspects of [TS]

01:39:51 ◼   ► the Great Recession it was the way that you can say they weren't they [TS]

01:39:55 ◼   ► no that's fair but the degree to which you are affected by macroeconomic [TS]

01:40:00 ◼   ► conditions is a function of how mature market is like the more mature your [TS]

01:40:04 ◼   ► market is the more you're going to be effective in macroeconomic conditions if [TS]

01:40:07 ◼   ► you're in a in a in a new market where there's tons of growth opportunities [TS]

01:40:12 ◼   ► like the macroeconomics don't affect you nearly as much and you like I was into [TS]

01:40:17 ◼   ► all these earnings call every like this is earnings call season for speculative [TS]

01:40:20 ◼   ► almost on my database right about earnings and I actually love earnings [TS]

01:40:23 ◼   ► call i feel that the time you can learn more about a company than almost any [TS]

01:40:26 ◼   ► other time but the degree to which apple for the last two quarters has focused on [TS]

01:40:31 ◼   ► macroeconomic conditions its kind of striking how it's far exceeded any other [TS]

01:40:36 ◼   ► tech companies like they're really concerned about the world economy [TS]

01:40:38 ◼   ► growing into the ditch and like Facebook's not worried about it like [TS]

01:40:42 ◼   ► they're doing fine I get it it's a testament to how mature your market is [TS]

01:40:47 ◼   ► how much that affects you [TS]

01:40:49 ◼   ► I isn't it also the sort of that Apple more than any of the other companies you [TS]

01:40:57 ◼   ► might compare to his shipping Adams not bits and that therefore they're they're [TS]

01:41:03 ◼   ► more you know the more affected by the currency exchange rates you know . well [TS]

01:41:13 ◼   ► maybe the currency is just whether you sell I mean facebook has a greater [TS]

01:41:16 ◼   ► specific business so they were affected for example right I in advertising for [TS]

01:41:20 ◼   ► sure is impacted impacted by by recessions I i think that the atoms vs [TS]

01:41:26 ◼   ► actually thought you were going to talk about China because a reason why apple's [TS]

01:41:29 ◼   ► been so successful in China is because they're shipping Adams not bits because [TS]

01:41:33 ◼   ► bits can either be a copied or be blah [TS]

01:41:36 ◼   ► yeah that's true right and the fact that they ship atoms that are different the [TS]

01:41:41 ◼   ► software has made them like to a massive degree more successful than any other [TS]

01:41:46 ◼   ► company in china and frankly I karlik on getting out of stock last weekend [TS]

01:41:51 ◼   ► playing china i thought it was totally reasonable to be honest like that i [TS]

01:41:54 ◼   ► bring that are being blocked [TS]

01:41:56 ◼   ► yeah i mean like it's not it didn't cause a profitable financially but it's [TS]

01:42:00 ◼   ► a worrisome sign and like it's very like apples China prospects irregardless of [TS]

01:42:08 ◼   ► whether there [TS]

01:42:08 ◼   ► saturate the market which is which is which is something that can be having a [TS]

01:42:12 ◼   ► template talk about the upper middle class in China the upper middle class in [TS]

01:42:16 ◼   ► China as its defined in this mystery party sites which actually said first [TS]

01:42:19 ◼   ► inspector I'd like to thank you got from that but i don't know but the upper [TS]

01:42:22 ◼   ► middle class is defined by an income of 27,000 264 sorry [TS]

01:42:27 ◼   ► sixteen thousand dollars to 35 thousand dollars u.s. dollars and that's not very [TS]

01:42:32 ◼   ► much money like it in purchasing power parity it's much more because stuff in [TS]

01:42:36 ◼   ► China cheaper but I phones are cheaper in China like they're actually more [TS]

01:42:40 ◼   ► expensive each other in the u.s. like you have to wonder like it i I'm [TS]

01:42:46 ◼   ► concerned about this narrative in China like how big actually is the iphone [TS]

01:42:50 ◼   ► market in China and if and again it just goes back into this like one Apple seems [TS]

01:42:57 ◼   ► don't want the iphone to there's evidence that upgrade rates are are [TS]

01:43:01 ◼   ► extending particularly the iphone pushes into the marginal customer that's not a [TS]

01:43:05 ◼   ► geek and update upgrade every year but then three then three they're not a new [TS]

01:43:09 ◼   ► carriers and then for the in China like maybe it's not nearly as big as we all [TS]

01:43:16 ◼   ► thought it was like it there's there's genuine reason to be concerned in again [TS]

01:43:22 ◼   ► the iphones not going anywhere [TS]

01:43:23 ◼   ► no was replaced with android it's gonna be super successful but where's the [TS]

01:43:28 ◼   ► growth going to come from and if the growth not going to be there then we're [TS]

01:43:31 ◼   ► almost back at the services discussion if that makes sense like everything is [TS]

01:43:34 ◼   ► connected [TS]

01:43:35 ◼   ► well and the other thing Tim Cook mention and again this is maybe a little [TS]

01:43:39 ◼   ► worrisome is that Tim Cook spoke optimistically about growth in india and [TS]

01:43:46 ◼   ► sort of comparing it to China and I like to i thought was a really good piece by [TS]

01:43:52 ◼   ► rupesh Shander hope i'm pronouncing right who lives in india and his [TS]

01:44:00 ◼   ► longtime daring fireball reader and his has written me many times over the past [TS]

01:44:04 ◼   ► but he wrote about the differences between India and China and I almost [TS]

01:44:08 ◼   ► summarized by his footnote in his post which is i'll just read it entirely [TS]

01:44:14 ◼   ► according to Pew Research less than 2% of Indians earn more [TS]

01:44:18 ◼   ► than twenty dollars a day or which is about seven thousand dollars a year as [TS]

01:44:22 ◼   ► of $MONTH 2011 and that's an increase of about 0.5% over 10 years in China the [TS]

01:44:30 ◼   ► number of people who earn more than twenty dollars a day increased by 5% in [TS]

01:44:37 ◼   ► the same . so China's it there's a you know the similarity between india and [TS]

01:44:42 ◼   ► china is that there's a billion-plus people in a lot of a lot of people a lot [TS]

01:44:47 ◼   ► of people and so even if relatively small number of people earn i can buy an [TS]

01:44:53 ◼   ► iphone amounts of money a small percentage of a billion people is an [TS]

01:45:00 ◼   ► awful lot of potential iphone buyers but that it [TS]

01:45:03 ◼   ► India's economy is not doing as well as China's in terms of raising the number [TS]

01:45:08 ◼   ► of people who earn you know seven seven thousand dollars more a year and the end [TS]

01:45:13 ◼   ► if you only had seven thousand dollars a year buying an iphone is it you know its [TS]

01:45:18 ◼   ► enormous right because it's you know iphone is you know even if you get the [TS]

01:45:23 ◼   ► the SE it's you know [TS]

01:45:24 ◼   ► $400 did he did he cited an observation that in his article on it was grateful [TS]

01:45:32 ◼   ► for like iphone in China are very different in two respects one is that [TS]

01:45:37 ◼   ► china is just much richer than India like it's it's eight or nine times on a [TS]

01:45:41 ◼   ► gdp basis like per person per capita basis richer one but then to any quality [TS]

01:45:48 ◼   ► in China is much greater than any quality in india and the implication of [TS]

01:45:52 ◼   ► high inequality with a ton of people is that there's a lot of rich people right [TS]

01:45:57 ◼   ► and so China has this huge number of people that are like living on Western [TS]

01:46:03 ◼   ► standards and incomes and an India and you like arguably to its credit i mean [TS]

01:46:09 ◼   ► it is if the velocity ology goes into this but they did [TS]

01:46:12 ◼   ► it's a relatively equal country so even the rich people in India one there's not [TS]

01:46:18 ◼   ► that many of them into their not that rich relatively speaking so so the the [TS]

01:46:22 ◼   ► market like even though it's a billion people the people who can afford an [TS]

01:46:26 ◼   ► iphone very structurally much smaller much smaller [TS]

01:46:31 ◼   ► that is in China yeah it's so anybody looking for China style explosion in [TS]

01:46:35 ◼   ► India I don't think it's gonna happen and Apple added setback after results [TS]

01:46:40 ◼   ► where they'd been petitioning the government in India to allow them to [TS]

01:46:45 ◼   ► sell refurbished iphones and that got rejected which is weird the whole idea [TS]

01:46:51 ◼   ► of not being allowed to celery furbished phones is weird but it's it seems like [TS]

01:46:56 ◼   ► some kind of political issue in India but that was the that was a big path for [TS]

01:47:00 ◼   ► potential sales for apple in India because it would allow them to sell the [TS]

01:47:05 ◼   ► iphones at prices that Indians could more likely afford without being I don't [TS]

01:47:10 ◼   ► know what Apple is doing its it yet . well it's just sort of like the way that [TS]

01:47:16 ◼   ► you can you know like what what is like BMW strategy for reaching people who [TS]

01:47:21 ◼   ► can't afford a new BMW it's this certified BMW you know certified [TS]

01:47:25 ◼   ► pre-owned they don't call them use their not used cars that are pre-owned [TS]

01:47:29 ◼   ► certified pre-owned BMW and all the premium car makers have these certified [TS]

01:47:34 ◼   ► pre-owned things and that's the way that that premium car companies like BMW and [TS]

01:47:40 ◼   ► mercedes porsche whoever you want to you know talk about they have these [TS]

01:47:44 ◼   ► certified pre-owned sales things it's exactly what apples strategy is with the [TS]

01:47:50 ◼   ► iphone and yet what it's like to orders of magnitude difference in price between [TS]

01:47:54 ◼   ► say a new Mercedes and a new iphone but it's it [TS]

01:47:58 ◼   ► Apple's brand is exactly the same their premium phone maker and the way that [TS]

01:48:03 ◼   ► they expand to the lower price point is with refurbished models [TS]

01:48:07 ◼   ► well I also thought i'm confused about Apple's doing India because they were [TS]

01:48:13 ◼   ► they did something really machine india which they haven't done any other [TS]

01:48:16 ◼   ► country which is they allowed for massive discounts of their phones no the [TS]

01:48:21 ◼   ► success and the six were hugely discounted india and you could get them [TS]

01:48:25 ◼   ► for you could get the success for something like five hundred dollars in [TS]

01:48:28 ◼   ► india which is massively less than in the US and and so when the when the SC [TS]

01:48:35 ◼   ► launch I actually thought it was targeted india and I presumed that evil [TS]

01:48:40 ◼   ► Washington and watching you for like five hundred dollars like but more [TS]

01:48:43 ◼   ► expensive the US [TS]

01:48:44 ◼   ► I presumed in a matter of weeks or months it would be discounted like three [TS]

01:48:48 ◼   ► hundred dollars and I I thought they were gonna make a big push india with [TS]

01:48:51 ◼   ► the SC and it what they actually did was they cut off the discounts for the [TS]

01:48:57 ◼   ► successful when compete with the SG&A racerback up like a hundred dollars [TS]

01:49:00 ◼   ► right late because they felt was suppressing SE cells and a like I don't [TS]

01:49:07 ◼   ► rig [TS]

01:49:08 ◼   ► I don't know what I don't know what they're doing to like I feel silly [TS]

01:49:11 ◼   ► because like I presume there discounting was a strategy or extend but three if [TS]

01:49:16 ◼   ► that is their strategy where their entry-level phone is going to be super [TS]

01:49:20 ◼   ► expensive in India the SE like it's not a dollar it's not going to be trying at [TS]

01:49:24 ◼   ► all like a in again [TS]

01:49:26 ◼   ► where's where our new customers going to come from I don't know before we leave [TS]

01:49:32 ◼   ► with this idea that the Apple might need to abandon the a strategy I that I see a [TS]

01:49:39 ◼   ► few problems with that in one of them is that and I haven't done and I should [TS]

01:49:45 ◼   ► have maybe but anecdotally and I could be just as wrong just as wrong as the [TS]

01:49:50 ◼   ► people who I know are wrong that the S models generate less consumer interests [TS]

01:49:56 ◼   ► are having the past generated less consumer interest than the new model [TS]

01:49:59 ◼   ► ones but i think that the new ones tend to be supply constrained when they're [TS]

01:50:05 ◼   ► new in ways that the s-model ones aren't for the very obvious reason that Apple [TS]

01:50:12 ◼   ► is good at making like for example last year the six of iphone 6 with supply [TS]

01:50:18 ◼   ► constrained when it first came out and that was one of the reasons that the [TS]

01:50:22 ◼   ► january-march quarter did so well was it you know one of the reasons was that it [TS]

01:50:27 ◼   ► was delayed in China and then it was available in China and one of the [TS]

01:50:30 ◼   ► reasons simple reasons that q2 last year was so good for the iphone 6 was that [TS]

01:50:35 ◼   ► there were people who wanted to buy in q1 and had a weight and that to me is [TS]

01:50:40 ◼   ► one of the very obvious reasons that Apple goes with this strategy is that [TS]

01:50:45 ◼   ► operationally it's a huge advantage because there they get very very very [TS]

01:50:49 ◼   ► efficient and good at making this form factor and all they have to do is put in [TS]

01:50:54 ◼   ► like a new touch ID sensor which is very different than [TS]

01:50:57 ◼   ► making an entirely new aluminum case and it entirely new screen size and stuff [TS]

01:51:02 ◼   ► like that so I just wonder I don't know that it's even feasible for Apple to [TS]

01:51:08 ◼   ► make a new form factor every year I I just don't think I think that's too too [TS]

01:51:12 ◼   ► much too fast i don't think that i think it actually takes two years for them to [TS]

01:51:15 ◼   ► to get you know to get in place to make a new form factor it's a fair point but [TS]

01:51:21 ◼   ► i guess the counter to that would be is that when they did that with the 3g with [TS]

01:51:26 ◼   ► 3 3g 3gs and four for us the volumes were so much less like it is a it is a [TS]

01:51:32 ◼   ► very real factor where the more you can spread out the fixed cost of your [TS]

01:51:36 ◼   ► tooling in your factory over a number of phones like the better margin you get [TS]

01:51:40 ◼   ► what's called leverage and there certainly is an aspect to that but at [TS]

01:51:44 ◼   ► this point they're selling every year even in a down here they're selling so [TS]

01:51:49 ◼   ► many more 60s there was something more successes they sold fours and forces [TS]

01:51:53 ◼   ► combined or certainly 3g 3gs combined I think they have the scale at this point [TS]

01:51:59 ◼   ► that they could they could justify the investment in tooling and and setting up [TS]

01:52:06 ◼   ► lines even if it was only over 1 year but it is a very it it's a fair question [TS]

01:52:12 ◼   ► that I think you're exactly right its work to apple benefits i mean certainly [TS]

01:52:17 ◼   ► change the phone so I'm actually very curious to know how much benefit they do [TS]

01:52:21 ◼   ► get because the success is a different phone the sexy it is i'm curious how [TS]

01:52:26 ◼   ► much benefit they do get your by year like do they really gonna reuse that [TS]

01:52:31 ◼   ► much to link they use different aluminum those sort of stuff are if they do get a [TS]

01:52:35 ◼   ► lot of benefit than the question is probably closer than I think about this [TS]

01:52:38 ◼   ► is a cost component to it as well uh but I don't know it just what if they could [TS]

01:52:45 ◼   ► and there's another factor which is that even if they could manufacturing wise [TS]

01:52:49 ◼   ► literally just snap their fingers and jony ive says Heat team says here's what [TS]

01:52:53 ◼   ► this year's iphone looks like if they could just snap their fingers and within [TS]

01:52:57 ◼   ► a day have the supply chain turning them out in the quantity that they need to [TS]

01:53:02 ◼   ► meet demand even if there was that magical i don't know that i really doubt [TS]

01:53:08 ◼   ► that Apple's dinner that Jony Ive's team [TS]

01:53:11 ◼   ► would come up with a new design every year that was that was noticeably [TS]

01:53:14 ◼   ► different because now there isn't enough getting into it well they could but [TS]

01:53:19 ◼   ► their their philosophy though they're there [TS]

01:53:21 ◼   ► ethos is that they don't they they're complete the idea of changing making [TS]

01:53:27 ◼   ► something look new just to have something that looks new is antithetical [TS]

01:53:31 ◼   ► to their philosophy which is that they are only going to make something look [TS]

01:53:36 ◼   ► new if they are convinced that it's better and if not then they won't do it [TS]

01:53:41 ◼   ► I will tell you I could go back to the size i have it sitting here though [TS]

01:53:45 ◼   ► but this iphone 5 i'm five a ceremony my hand is is a vastly more beautiful phone [TS]

01:53:50 ◼   ► the next [TS]

01:53:51 ◼   ► and my sixth i well I find that you know in terms of you know things I'm worried [TS]

01:53:57 ◼   ► about with apple in the long run it's that you know the fact that I've i [TS]

01:54:00 ◼   ► prefer the guy I've been doing that I do it every time I keep it I keep my SE [TS]

01:54:05 ◼   ► review unit here I don't use it day to day anymore but I I much prefer the way [TS]

01:54:10 ◼   ► I just sit here and worry stone in my in my hands over and over again I find that [TS]

01:54:15 ◼   ► I it's it's it's all like 25 to me the 5 and 5s where the pinnacle of because of [TS]

01:54:20 ◼   ► the four was brilliant it was so out of left field but the five like perfected [TS]

01:54:24 ◼   ► the four right like it's it really is like the perfect the perfect form factor [TS]

01:54:29 ◼   ► in my opinion [TS]

01:54:30 ◼   ► yeah i find that the four was but you know well the fact that the back could [TS]

01:54:34 ◼   ► crack was a write that on the shuttle deficiency but in fact that you couldn't [TS]

01:54:38 ◼   ► tell in your hand which side was which was sort of an inefficiency as well I [TS]

01:54:42 ◼   ► find it worrisome that Apple clearly in it at least jony ive's team thinks that [TS]

01:54:46 ◼   ► the six success form factor is superior to the 55 sse and size aside i would i [TS]

01:54:55 ◼   ► would prefer i think a 4.7 inch phone that was had the flat sides you know and [TS]

01:55:03 ◼   ► and sharp I think it's everybody better it because i think what they were [TS]

01:55:06 ◼   ► concerned about was like the round I think the Apple was so worried about [TS]

01:55:11 ◼   ► making a big phone that I think the six like they did a lot of affordances in [TS]

01:55:16 ◼   ► the 64 larger phone like having the rounded edges and stuff like that and I [TS]

01:55:20 ◼   ► and now that people are more comfortable with it i think they'll be a little more [TS]

01:55:24 ◼   ► more exploratory with the seven anything to is actually the this suppose the [TS]

01:55:28 ◼   ► supply chain rumors which credit supply chain the supply chain nailed the [TS]

01:55:34 ◼   ► success being being low like that it was widespread in taiwan for sure it got on [TS]

01:55:39 ◼   ► the Western media as well that the apples tampa in 40 years a factoid John [TS]

01:55:44 ◼   ► i just i just posted this today cause I didn't calculations I sosoni in their [TS]

01:55:48 ◼   ► earnings and they actually warning wait wait wait in April where they said that [TS]

01:55:54 ◼   ► their devices division where they make the they make the the the camera sensors [TS]

01:55:59 ◼   ► was going to have a big miss and it was a real surprise that's been a real [TS]

01:56:03 ◼   ► strength for sony for the last couple years and cost only by the way the [TS]

01:56:06 ◼   ► company's doing really really well and I couldn't be more pleased it's what I [TS]

01:56:10 ◼   ► think for us children of the eighties like it's the company that will always [TS]

01:56:12 ◼   ► hold a special place in our hearts 0 divided their devices had a big loss and [TS]

01:56:18 ◼   ► they had to do a write down and the write-down was of 560 million dollars [TS]

01:56:23 ◼   ► with the sensors that basically did David cell and there was speculation [TS]

01:56:27 ◼   ► that was a customer what happened what went on [TS]

01:56:30 ◼   ► it turns out if you go to the to the estimates of the success costs which [TS]

01:56:35 ◼   ► obviously who knows if they're true or not but the estimate for the camera on [TS]

01:56:39 ◼   ► the successes is 2250 twenty dollars and fifty cents that may or may not include [TS]

01:56:44 ◼   ► wetlands assembly but if you presume that's the sensor that is that sensor [TS]

01:56:50 ◼   ► that cost twenty dollars fifty cents if you take 550 million / 2015 contracts [TS]

01:56:55 ◼   ► 125 million sensors that Sony apparently made and one of their customers ended up [TS]

01:57:02 ◼   ► declining to exception of it turns out 25 million is about what most analysts [TS]

01:57:07 ◼   ► think Apple overall over forecasted the iphone success huh with uh which is it's [TS]

01:57:13 ◼   ► interesting that a few levels one like it with i already had in my head in that [TS]

01:57:17 ◼   ► in not on my excel spreadsheet that Apple had lowered their forecast by 25 [TS]

01:57:23 ◼   ► million and it actually matches almost perfectly to it goes to show the [TS]

01:57:28 ◼   ► leverage and power apple still has that Sony had to eat it even though apples [TS]

01:57:34 ◼   ► the one that screwed up our buddy out there is after [TS]

01:57:37 ◼   ► I that was that was pretty interesting this break you know what you know those [TS]

01:57:44 ◼   ► sensors you know what [TS]

01:57:46 ◼   ► no we're not gonna pay for that we're actually not going to pay for that I'm [TS]

01:57:50 ◼   ► that is interesting where did you post that I didn't cnni I thought I just [TS]

01:57:54 ◼   ► adjusted today you might not see that was enlightening today's update i [TS]

01:57:57 ◼   ► thought but I really thought before we started recording that I had caught up [TS]

01:58:01 ◼   ► Iran as i call it was the internet is a section about Nintendo vs sony so it [TS]

01:58:05 ◼   ► might go out i skipped it is contended apart i did see it but then I skipped it [TS]

01:58:10 ◼   ► because i didn't know i was just looking at the very end [TS]

01:58:13 ◼   ► i I don't I yeah it's been since it's interesting i enjoy the fixed typo to [TS]

01:58:19 ◼   ► this is this is why i don't think i could do like I don't think I gotta do [TS]

01:58:24 ◼   ► worse [TS]

01:58:24 ◼   ► it's awful it's awful yeah because once it's out its out so there's always a [TS]

01:58:28 ◼   ► balance to fix it or not and so i did about Tesla and I said that they had and [TS]

01:58:32 ◼   ► cash outflow operation 59 60 billion or 5 and 25 billion and fire 25 billion is [TS]

01:58:38 ◼   ► the market cap of Apple approximately of course it's not billion it's million and [TS]

01:58:42 ◼   ► in the next sentence i added up the stuff it was clearly i met million one [TS]

01:58:47 ◼   ► of this but i will it it's one of the great flaws in the English language that [TS]

01:58:51 ◼   ► begin its million billion then even trillion and whatever go on but [TS]

01:58:56 ◼   ► especially in terms of what numbers we actually use in terms of talking about [TS]

01:59:00 ◼   ► money knowing and billion are the only ones that really matter it's very you [TS]

01:59:04 ◼   ► know this right few discussion all into trillions but they're all weather like [TS]

01:59:08 ◼   ► Troy petroleum is two different letters right is so it's it's like significantly [TS]

01:59:12 ◼   ► different yeah but they should be it [TS]

01:59:14 ◼   ► it is it's it's helpful improper and I think actually helps you understand how [TS]

01:59:20 ◼   ► different that a thousand from a million is because the word sounds so different [TS]

01:59:25 ◼   ► and a hundred sounds so different from a thousand even though it's only a 10-fold [TS]

01:59:29 ◼   ► difference it's only a 10 full difference from a hundred to a thousand [TS]

01:59:33 ◼   ► thousand to a million is a thousandfold difference and it sounds totally [TS]

01:59:37 ◼   ► different but a million to a billion is a thousandfold difference and it sound [TS]

01:59:41 ◼   ► so similar and our brains just so many people's brains just naturally file them [TS]

01:59:47 ◼   ► together and I totally understand the difference but [TS]

01:59:51 ◼   ► in writing it is the easiest and a anybody who writes la that mistake one [TS]

01:59:57 ◼   ► way [TS]

01:59:57 ◼   ► sure it's a so the worst with an email is because it out [TS]

01:59:57 ◼   ► sure it's a so the worst with an email is because it out [TS]

02:00:00 ◼   ► they're right and so I was just gonna leave i saw it actually right away and [TS]

02:00:03 ◼   ► like crap but it was gonna leave it but i got like double-digit like tweets and [TS]

02:00:09 ◼   ► emails you have something like if you actually think about it like obviously I [TS]

02:00:13 ◼   ► meant million but I got more than usual like our digital million or billion and [TS]

02:00:18 ◼   ► liked it so I had to issue the the follow-up email thing fixing this type [TS]

02:00:22 ◼   ► of which i hate doing because like to me a brilliant powerful aspect of [TS]

02:00:27 ◼   ► destruction model is i insert myself into a place that people always look at [TS]

02:00:32 ◼   ► with your email box and I take that very seriously right and so to send a second [TS]

02:00:37 ◼   ► email i really hate doing but you know if I'm getting so many responses like [TS]

02:00:42 ◼   ► what did you mean I feel like I have to correct it in like oh yeah right [TS]

02:00:46 ◼   ► it depresses me so before we move on to the final segment of the show but this [TS]

02:00:52 ◼   ► is to hit the rumor mills the rumor mill though is that the iphone 7 or whatever [TS]

02:00:57 ◼   ► they're going to call it this fall the new iphone this fall is going to be very [TS]

02:01:00 ◼   ► very similar to the it seems as though the acid cycle is coming to an end but [TS]

02:01:04 ◼   ► it seems as though the way it's coming to an end is not by coming up with new [TS]

02:01:08 ◼   ► form factors every year but by extending existing form factors for additional [TS]

02:01:13 ◼   ► years so first example proof of it we have is the iphone SE which is the first [TS]

02:01:17 ◼   ► time that the same form factor has been used three times and it the rumor mill [TS]

02:01:23 ◼   ► is very strong that the iphone that this year's iphone i don't know I I a moment [TS]

02:01:28 ◼   ► i am really starting to think they're not going to call the iphone 7 just on a [TS]

02:01:31 ◼   ► gut level so I don't want to call it that but for lack of a better term the [TS]

02:01:35 ◼   ► iphone 7 is going to be in large part in this physically indistinguishable from [TS]

02:01:39 ◼   ► the iphone 6 and 6s accept that but that's an alliance remove that's a [TS]

02:01:44 ◼   ► bummer that's a bummer i I'm with i'm not a huge fan I'm was it wasn't go the [TS]

02:01:50 ◼   ► other direction the other rumor is that the iphone the the 2018 iphone which [TS]

02:01:57 ◼   ► would theoretically with the 7s is going to be not only a 17-3 2017 . this is [TS]

02:02:04 ◼   ► this year you're right choice you're right choice everything you're right [TS]

02:02:07 ◼   ► fiscal year twenty eighteen is then alright infuse examples rights in [TS]

02:02:10 ◼   ► October but that phone is also going to be [TS]

02:02:13 ◼   ► markedly different from the 2016 iphone right which 60 either wondering like [TS]

02:02:20 ◼   ► extend the 6-2 like three years which you just kind of said or on the flip [TS]

02:02:26 ◼   ► side they're gonna move into an annual refresh cycle [TS]

02:02:29 ◼   ► uh I hope for I think it needs to be and recycle baby here's a ship a phone with [TS]

02:02:35 ◼   ► the same form factor i would be that'd be amazing [TS]

02:02:38 ◼   ► here is what I wouldn't i would not wait you're heavily on any aspect of this but [TS]