The Talk Show

145: ‘Anthropomorphic Human Bowel’, With Special Guest Ben Thompson

 

  to watch football are kind of I know you're a basketball guy know your NBA [TS]

  guy football football arm like I in the city like i like the idea of you know [TS]

  like I mean like boycott football because it's like killing people [TS]

  yeah arm and I can be all self-righteous about and say well I don't watch don't [TS]

  watch football on the problem is that the main reason to watch football [TS]

  because it's on in the middle of the night and I find football of all the [TS]

  sports the least amenable to watching not live which is weird because if you [TS]

  watching that why you can watch it takes 30 minutes right arm but and buttocks I [TS]

  know what I came to tell on the first time at like there weren't really any [TS]

  streaming things was much more difficult to do that I and then when I went back [TS]

  for four years [TS]

  uh I was right back to write back write back on the conscience and they have two [TS]

  dudes inside idea but i'm i'm gonna be kept here about it so I do watch some I [TS]

  do watch it some arm i actually got the NFL package this year but I'm terribly [TS]

  conflicted about it but it's not that's I mean you know it's so compelling to [TS]

  watch the Superbowl i did i did and we were able to watch it live [TS]

  yeah I I i have the the NFL streaming arm thing which they actually includes [TS]

  all the commercials and all that sort of stuff so you i was able to offer snide [TS]

  remarks along with the rest of Twitter I feel the same way about you [TS]

  I figured if I talked about this on the show before I i know i've linked to it [TS]

  and a cocky has to that it's like the NFL is so incredibly popular in the [TS]

  United States and its if anything more popular than it ever was especially [TS]

  compared to other team sports but yet it really does seem like the support as we [TS]

  know it is completely doomed ought to be doomed and I I do feel as it's like a [TS]

  semi casual fan somebody who doesn't really watch as many games i used to i [TS]

  do I actually feel like I get complicit it's like a guilt that this up the game [TS]

  as configured is you know literally killing people and and you know giving [TS]

  them and not just kill you know but then you know making the last year's of her [TS]

  life [TS]

  if absolutely miserable with this chronic traumatic and cephalo pathy CTE [TS]

  in other words though long story short for anybody doesn't follow football [TS]

  there is massive evidence i mean just overwhelming evidence like smoking is [TS]

  bad for your lungs and gives you cancer evidence that playing football even that [TS]

  like high school level even if you just play in high school and then never play [TS]

  again but let alone if you go on to play college where people hit you harder and [TS]

  go on to a pro career where bigger people hate you even harder for more [TS]

  years that the repeated hits to your head [TS]

  I end up causing terrible scoring that your brain is not meant to have and it [TS]

  causes you know depression and all sorts of other problems but it's a really [TS]

  nasty nasty degenerative brain disease and if it really seems like it's you [TS]

  know it's just unbelievable how many former pro-football players have it [TS]

  right it and that's that's the thing that arm it's easy to say well these [TS]

  guys know what they're doing they're paid millions of dollars that's the [TS]

  trade-off they make but the problem is that all you know like any prosport only [TS]

  a very small fraction of people playing actually you know make money from it [TS]

  uh and then use your bases are paying your head from the time your kid on [TS]

  that's you know there's a lot of people that aren't that are winning that [TS]

  trade-off to say the least and there were a couple of concussions in the [TS]

  superbowl I'm reading an article here this is the Panthers wide receiver Corey [TS]

  Brown suffered concussion and Broncos linebacker shaquil barrett I forget his [TS]

  name I thought number 88 for the Broncos clearly had a concussion he got like his [TS]

  clock cleaned and an early play and then later like the next time you run a route [TS]

  he just felt all day the left but really I don't know it and then just to have [TS]

  the word concussion mentioned during the game you just know that the NFL there's [TS]

  somebody the NFL is like a really open to get through this game without that [TS]

  word coming up [TS]

  yup way it is not just I mean that's the serious one but I mean there's also i [TS]

  mean what what these people with these guys are doing to their to their bodies [TS]

  i mean you have [TS]

  I mean it was a ben ben roethlisberger in the playoffs dislocated his throwing [TS]

  arm and somehow managed to come in with up you know a few series later in play [TS]

  right arm you know and just just I i don't think it magically healed itself [TS]

  in the meantime I you know there was like some horse tranquilizers being used [TS]

  or something like that I mean who knows what they're these guys are shooting [TS]

  this of themselves up with 44 are our entertainment mom and yeah it's it's [TS]

  definitely it's with one of those things that it's it's hard to think a lot about [TS]

  my theory and i said i think i've written Sundering for but my theory is [TS]

  that the way the long-term way out is for football to evolve into a more [TS]

  basketball like game that is mostly around more or less like professional [TS]

  flag football but it's mostly like quarterbacks and wide receivers and [TS]

  athletic passing place and defensive guys you know who can counter that but I [TS]

  because I feel like that's the part of the game that I like best [TS]

  I love the passing game and I love you know some of the just incredible [TS]

  athleticism of you know catching a ball at full speed while running 50 yards [TS]

  downfield but I feel like there's way too much of the popularity is tied up in [TS]

  that gladdie gladatorial aspect of the the violence you know that I say this [TS]

  and I might enjoy watching that game and I like watching basketball but that the [TS]

  reason that sport is so popular as I way too much to do with the actual brutal [TS]

  violence [TS]

  yeah i think that the weather that's part of it too and the other thing to [TS]

  that part of what makes football so compelling is arm is like it really is [TS]

  such a strategic sort of game time into you know so much violence and and part [TS]

  of that strategy is very much a sort of war of attrition aspect like you like [TS]

  you do stuff in the first quarter like you you run plays that achieve no gain [TS]

  uh in part two with the purple express purpose of wearing down the Defense so [TS]

  that you can you pull off those plays we later in the game and like justify mean [TS]

  the fundamental nature is of it is so tied into who you know like getting a [TS]

  physical advantage of that [TS]

  yeah it's I mean [TS]

  and the other thing too is the trend I what you say makes sense intellectually [TS]

  but the actual trend of the game is yes as right guys being bigger and stronger [TS]

  and faster and hitting right ice I fully acknowledge the wistful wishful thinking [TS]

  aspect of my make it more like flag football and basketball type athletic [TS]

  game I fully acknowledge that it really contrasts and is in the opposite [TS]

  direction of what is actually going on with the league [TS]

  what did they say they say the one of the most interesting stats so there was [TS]

  they were making a big celebration about the fact that this was super bowl 50 and [TS]

  it's a nice round number [TS]

  Cam Newton the quarterback for the Carolina Panthers is 65 and 245 pounds [TS]

  he he's bigger than every single player who is on the championship green bay [TS]

  packers team from Superbowl one that's crazy the quarterback the quarterback [TS]

  was bigger than everybody on a legendary legendarily great and and sort of rough [TS]

  and tough big you know run it you know three yards and a cloud of dust green [TS]

  bay packers team kind of unbelievable it is only well yeah I thought and and [TS]

  again I think part of what makes football so appealing to is that the [TS]

  strategy is is very easily a parent to the slave play person fan that specific [TS]

  tactics aren't right like the exact nature of what the precision of the [TS]

  plane the complexity of a given play is you know obviously it's different ever [TS]

  seen like the size of an NFL playbook although i guess now they're all the [TS]

  size of a surface tablet but back when they were in a few you're on brand back [TS]

  when they were in a binder they were just like phonebook size but that you [TS]

  know that there its complex tactics and very simple strategy and I thought the [TS]

  superbowl really super bowl was a perfect example of it [TS]

  yep definitely it's a garden where where where where I don't know this is better [TS]

  or worse than baseball baseball talked about Bob it's got to talk about the [TS]

  superbowl ya know it was armed [TS]

  you know I I'm so I'm so it it's it's all those things I mean it's a perfect [TS]

  example of armed [TS]

  you know it it's a reminder of about standing and doesn't everyone about on [TS]

  anything to anyone because I there's no question that the hypocrite and I like [TS]

  to say I'm was a hypocrite because i don't watch that many games or something [TS]

  like that but then actually that's just a matter of circumstance by being honest [TS]

  with myself and you want to think about it here's the long term the long term [TS]

  pessimist strategy about the NFL football in general the NFL from the top [TS]

  down at the professional level is a they're very successful there and [TS]

  they're very effective [TS]

  you know like in terms of PR and have good lawyers I mean I mean they've [TS]

  effectively their lawyers are so good they've gotten everybody who doesn't pay [TS]

  them a fortune to refer to the game is the big game instead of the superbowl [TS]

  behind not as crazy it's absolutely not [TS]

  how bad are not bad but how effective they are having gotten rid of anybody [TS]

  using those that the two words Super Bowl without paying them and it just [TS]

  shows how unbelievable the brand is for the simple that they want to do that [TS]

  right like most liked the MV i don't think the NBA finals is so our or the [TS]

  World Series is anywhere near as as litigious about that because they want [TS]

  people talking about the world series they want people talking about the [TS]

  finals [TS]

  where's the superbowl the NFL's a we know you're talking about super bowl so [TS]

  you're gonna pay us for those words though I think it's from the bottom up [TS]

  where the game collapses which is that high schools and youth leagues are going [TS]

  to start getting sued more and more and I feel like lawyers and insurance [TS]

  companies are going to start telling I don't know if this is like next few [TS]

  years thing or if it's a 10 years from now thing but I think it's absolutely [TS]

  within the next 15 years that you know insurance companies are going to start [TS]

  telling schools we you you can have a football team [TS]

  yep and more and more even without that I think you got more and more parents [TS]

  who are saying to their athletic children and let's just face it quite [TS]

  frankly their sons [TS]

  I mean there's a video there's a few girls who play here and there but it's [TS]

  usually quite notable you know you can't play football you know you're going to [TS]

  play soccer in the fall and basketball in the winter and [TS]

  you can play baseball in the spring but you're not playing football and I think [TS]

  with good reason i don't i don't think i would let my kid play fact i know i [TS]

  wouldn't definitely want to play football and I think it's gonna happen [TS]

  more and you start hearing it now from football players i create when I said he [TS]

  wouldn't let his kids play football and once that starts happening in fewer and [TS]

  fewer athletic kids even play football [TS]

  the kids who are who are the extraordinary athlete to micropro are [TS]

  going to end up in different leagues you know they're going to end up pitching in [TS]

  baseball or playing basketball [TS]

  maybe well maybe we'll finally have a good US Secretary I'm not that we have a [TS]

  negative team but you know and we get if we get the the the best athletes all [TS]

  right I my board with that the other thing too is because the easy football [TS]

  is such a you American sport like I'm like baseball has lost a lot of [TS]

  particularly like the inner cities uh and certain parts of the country [TS]

  baseball has really fallen off but it's been armed from white American [TS]

  particular there's been a huge influx of talent that is that is really you don't [TS]

  pick up pick up the pace but football's not going to have that aren't and so [TS]

  what's once it loses the the American pipeline that's that's the only pipeline [TS]

  yeah I i think the long-term path is that it devolves into a regional support [TS]

  in the u.s. South yep curious how it plays out it was it's it's um I mean it [TS]

  is amazing amazing how popular and pervasive it is i mean even on something [TS]

  like you know like detect circles that we we tend to you know within and [TS]

  circulated and I mean there's a lot of football fans far more than ten [TS]

  basketball or baseball or or any other sport you every Sunday you know even if [TS]

  you followed up on Twitter and you know I all the people are going to play with [TS]

  this podcast know our I'm sure are our grimacing because they know that we're [TS]

  talking about but it everyone's talking about the play and and and what's going [TS]

  on [TS]

  it's it's really quite remarkable I still there but in a Super Bowl just has [TS]

  this weird gravity I mean really does and I know it's corny it's almost [TS]

  cliché that people say well just watching for the commercials but it's [TS]

  true and because people have parties you know you mean somebody says hey come [TS]

  over to my house and having a dozen people over [TS]

  gonna have you know you know big platters of food and lots of beer people [TS]

  come over and if you're not really into the game you take your bathroom breaks [TS]

  when the game comes back on you know [TS]

  yep boy away with a lot of those commercials this year we're awful i [TS]

  don't know if you got the same commercials that we did an idea I got [TS]

  all the same commercials that he didn't I think they're usually always awful [TS]

  it's this weird sort of arm every year it's the worst year ever [TS]

  I'm and then but they just one of those things the one that stuck out to me the [TS]

  most was a new one for diarrhea medicine where the star of the commercial was a [TS]

  walkie human bowel abdominal pain he they made a cgi human bowel with eyes [TS]

  and little legs and he's at the game and he's he's got diarrhea and the line to [TS]

  the bathroom is a too long and now he doesn't know what to do because he's [TS]

  about to school we didn't have pants he's not going to not gonna shit his [TS]

  pants I guess just gonna go all over the floor like where is everybody [TS]

  well maybe even funnier is that was the second that was the second body movement [TS]

  real and christ-like Nick there's already one forgot the face in the first [TS]

  two out right they had a constipation one anniversary with him packing with a [TS]

  guy walking around watching people boob is hot dog puppy on the street but very [TS]

  whimsical if you need an opioid to manage your chronic pain you may be so [TS]

  constipated it feels like everyone can go except you and he was jealous now use [TS]

  it was like a dog was enjoying a nice nice nice dropping like I used to be [TS]

  like that is like like like some some old man watching the youngins right i [TS]

  remember when i could enjoy a nice crap [TS]

  boy those were the days is not a good ad not a fun add long [TS]

  for a change have the conversation with your doctor about oh IC and ask about [TS]

  prescription treatment options [TS]

  I don't know like you know it's just followed right up by just you know [TS]

  there's some kids having fun with a coke [TS]

  oh my god you want [TS]

  so speaking of the superbowl the other tie into to our usual beat is a Tim Cook [TS]

  was at the Super Bowl and I'm sure you saw this right that was fucked up they [TS]

  so the game is over I guess he had really good seats look like he had like [TS]

  sideline seats you know I don't use a box that i saw some photos later [TS]

  looks like the photo so what happened is the game is over Tim Cook decides to [TS]

  tweet congrats to the championship Denver Broncos and he took a picture of [TS]

  like the celebration on the field like fireworks going off and and you know the [TS]

  on-field I don't know how that happens but like at the Super Bowl when the game [TS]

  is over there's seemingly like 1500 people who stormed the field so right [TS]

  pandemonium on the field I anything posted photo it to Twitter and it's you [TS]

  know it's not a great photo it's dark and it's blurry and I mean dark meaning [TS]

  like it's nighttime there and there was they turn the lights down so you can see [TS]

  the fireworks and so there's camera blur because it's you know there's not enough [TS]

  light to take a short picture it [TS]

  I know and then and then he got excoriated on Twitter it seem like you [TS]

  know and and people in the press were to picking up on writing stories that Tim [TS]

  cooked took a terrible photo at the Superbowl it will ya [TS]

  everyday I love sure they're always there is a you know explained it [TS]

  perfectly fine reasons for it to be blurry i thought it was by that is [TS]

  pretty hilarious the Virgin like Casey Newton the words had a funny post talk [TS]

  about people being mean mean to be mean to him cook and I think he sees that [TS]

  excuse for his opening paragraph which was hilarious and super mean arm by the [TS]

  way whatever if you're if you're the if you're Tim Cook arm i think you can feel [TS]

  it will be ok so ebay ended up deleting the tweet right and then he posted a [TS]

  much better picture a few minutes later [TS]

  but people still we're making jokes I guess the joke's everyone to make was [TS]

  they were sticking his photo is blurry sort of slightly up not quite squared up [TS]

  photo into a shot with iphone 6 billboard you kept but yes that that's [TS]

  exactly it i got an email here is in the actual actual email from an actual [TS]

  actual reader I will not mention his name [TS]

  no subject of course this is the entire email I got from her daring fireball [TS]

  reader not a word about the shitty photo you are a pig [TS]

  this isn't even met like to cook and that's only about not a word about the [TS]

  shitty photo return return you are a pig so i just wrote back to him and said [TS]

  your message made my day thank you [TS]

  Ellis that was graceful of you i like to pretend when i get an email like that i [TS]

  like to pretend that I just answer every email as though it's I love your website [TS]

  that's the best thing I've read all day i tried the first thing I read every day [TS]

  and that's exactly how I right back to the people who write something like that [TS]

  I thought that it [TS]

  I wonder what happened I kind of I like the idea that that tim cook sometimes [TS]

  tweets like that just like a normal person right like you know he's excited [TS]

  he's a sports fan he's at the Superbowl it takes a picture he's not a [TS]

  professional photographer whatever however much you want to praise the [TS]

  iphone 6 I don't know what he's probably what do you think is a 6x think he's [TS]

  plus guy I no idea i wonder well it's a 50-50 chance easy they got the success [TS]

  of the success plus if you had the pulse i'll probably the sticks because it [TS]

  doesn't address table is right maybe that's what you maybe needs the image [TS]

  stabilization but either way even with the image stabilization as fine as the [TS]

  camera as it is and arguably easily arguably the best of any cellphone and [TS]

  in arguably among the best of any phone [TS]

  I think that's fair to say it is going to struggle in certain lighting [TS]

  conditions and the end on the field at the super bowl is certainly after the [TS]

  game at nighttime is certainly one of them [TS]

  I thought it it i thought that there was a tangible realness to it and no this is [TS]

  not the type of photo you're gonna put on a billboard shot with iphone 6 but it [TS]

  the photo itself wasn't great but I thought that the whole hell even the CEO [TS]

  of Apple take streets after an exciting thing like this is was an interesting [TS]

  angle you know it may I i think that he should have deleted it like he should [TS]

  have liked it was it could have been a hilarious like segue like the next Apple [TS]

  presentation or yes yes like own it let it play out and then and then and then [TS]

  you could you know you can make a joke about it and a subsequent event right [TS]

  now it's exactly exactly like people that that's like--that's what Twitter [TS]

  does twitter twitter is run on Stark [TS]

  unfortunately he can't quite be the villagers was not yet anyway are but uh [TS]

  I had no idea its its people are going to make fun of it that's what people do [TS]

  end [TS]

  yeah I i think the the real mistake was wasn't was into eating it and then you [TS]

  just look the examiner reinforces it it takes away the credibility from things [TS]

  you see in the future like if you do something like that like you said it [TS]

  makes you look real mix of human we've all taken crappy photos arm and and you [TS]

  know there's a benefit to to long-term benefits even if it's very slight to [TS]

  being a regular guy and not being a you know feeling like everything is run [TS]

  through PR and control and all that sort of stuff [TS]

  yeah yeah that's exactly what i would like to see you know avoid or I feel [TS]

  like the collect that collectively and we can't I can't [TS]

  nobody's going to listen to me just because I'm saying on the show and I'm [TS]

  not saying you know poor timko can't take it but I just feel like [TS]

  collectively Twitter's group behavior forces people in a higher profiles to be [TS]

  Asgard on Twitter as they are anywhere else you know where as Twitter could be [TS]

  a place where you know somebody like the CEO of the biggest [TS]

  company in the world could have a little fun but it's like ya say we have to ruin [TS]

  everything and I'm sorry and I'm not trying to make excuses for it just [TS]

  because it's an iphone and I mean it was not a great photo but it wasn't horrible [TS]

  it wasn't like ridiculous and if you don't understand that that's a tough [TS]

  conditions to get a photo [TS]

  I I mean it's like I don't know what to tell you [TS]

  ya know I I there is a arm [TS]

  uh yeah i read this is this is one of those things where people know people [TS]

  like that people like to be outraged they like to play like to make a big [TS]

  deal of stuff that that probably wasn't a big deal and and I think there's [TS]

  there's a sense particular someone like tim cook or anyone that has relatively [TS]

  high profile like there's a there's ad dehumanization that kind of occurs [TS]

  tonight again i don't think that i don't think that Tim Cook was losing sleep [TS]

  because people are making fun of his photo but you know it's like the [TS]

  unfortunately that's just the reality of being a public forum and I think this is [TS]

  you know it's a real this is a real a real challenge for twitter my maybe on [TS]

  twitter is all others problems by is this [TS]

  it's didn't the virtue is being public the virtues the fact you can connect and [TS]

  talk to anyone right and that is the downside in spades right how long after [TS]

  he posted that tweeting his phone [TS]

  jingle then looks down on it and it says Steve down [TS]

  that's what do you say you'd only big utilities envision how this happened [TS]

  right so you what I think was the boxes down the field [TS]

  it's very like I'm sure it's very exciting stuff around takes a picture [TS]

  prices posted with the barely even looking at it and he has like all of it [TS]

  start it without ever having been even I've never been in this stadium for [TS]

  super bowl but just watching on TV which i think almost makes it seem more saying [TS]

  because like they have cameras that are high up that are that are stable and the [TS]

  cameramen on the field are truly truly amazing professional photographers [TS]

  that it it's controlled barely controlled pandemonium you know with no [TS]

  not not overstating in and you just know that like 10 minutes later darling out [TS]

  of column it and I bet it was a tough call but it was like do you know why but [TS]

  it wasn't like a clear-cut call ya buy a doll i thought it was body I I just wish [TS]

  he should owned it like you said like it knew it would have made a hilarious [TS]

  like I mean as hilarious as such things can be sort of like 10 second interlude [TS]

  at the at WWDC or something [TS]

  yeah like literally order the next iphone should actually be like where [TS]

  where are the five señor ever comes with X amount of cabron good lord do i [TS]

  need it in front of me I think the problem is that and maybe the problem is [TS]

  that the timing doesn't work because new iPhones are going to come to September [TS]

  and they have at least two events between now and then and then we'll be [TS]

  old news by September lot of that whatever you can still write maybe it [TS]

  would be perfect if they had like new high-end you know phones coming next [TS]

  month it would be perfect it would almost have been suspicious that they [TS]

  planned it right people would be in all of a sudden that would be the you know [TS]

  the the conspiracy theories and come out that they think faked it on purpose rub [TS]

  two rub three rub dead you know rub some kind of grease all over the camera and [TS]

  yeah so you saw this photo I actually took two here's the one i took with the [TS]

  new iphone 7 anyway let me take a break and thank our first sponsor it is our [TS]

  good friends at Squarespace start building your website today at [TS]

  squarespace.com and you enter the offer code gruber that's my last name when you [TS]

  check out if you're buying and you get ten percent off now you need very that's [TS]

  why Squarespace recently launched three new website products each catered to the [TS]

  needs of different creative people now one of his cover pages [TS]

  this is a single page website that is perfect for when your ideas just [TS]

  starting out and there's an awful lot is it great I way it's just I've seen this [TS]

  a lot is a big trend for new things things that are just coming out things [TS]

  you want to unveil just do it in one page right you do one big page you got [TS]

  big artwork at the top you explain your main points next and then you can get [TS]

  the details that you scroll down the page well that's what cover pages aren't [TS]

  Squarespace they make it really really easy to set that up with something to [TS]

  sell your products itself [TS]

  Squarespace commerce is robust enough to be both an online storefront and your [TS]

  business manager for tracking inventory and sales and the numbers and stuff like [TS]

  that for something in between Squarespace websites provide beautiful [TS]

  versatile templates and a really wide variety of templates almost it's almost [TS]

  staggering to me I but if you haven't looked at Squarespace in awhile go check [TS]

  them out and then just check out just that the incredible variety of starting [TS]

  points that you can start from they've got all these templates and they help [TS]

  you create the online home that you have always wanted which project for you go [TS]

  check them out it's very obvious they steer you right through it and remember [TS]

  you get a free trial just by going to squarespace.com if you go to [TS]

  squarespace.com / the talkshow don't know you came from from here from this [TS]

  podcast but the important thing to remember is that the offer code Gruber [TS]

  for ten percent off your first order and you gotta remember that here's the deal [TS]

  i am asking a little bit of a favor for any of you out there who are going to do [TS]

  it because you can start this free trial you don't pay for anything it's 30 days [TS]

  later when your free trials up and you're hooked and you're like this is it [TS]

  for me that's when you go to pay use that offer code grouper just remember my [TS]

  last name they don't change it up much because I think they realized that [TS]

  there's you know held by the time you're free trial is over they might even [TS]

  sponsor another episode of the show so anyway my thanks to squarespace alright [TS]

  that's a good segue to talking about Twitter right [TS]

  yes we want the superbowl to tempt this could be a very seamless show this this [TS]

  could be a bunch of good segue to do we keep it going [TS]

  superbowl tim cook at the super bowl in his tweet that he that he deleted also [TS]

  by the way the second one he posted the photo is beautiful it was a really good [TS]

  photo now let's talk about Twitter and you you had a good piece i think i just [TS]

  went up yesterday as we record yes it's been up for about 24 hours or so I don't [TS]

  want to paraphrase too much but did just a bit being you quoted a thing that i [TS]

  wrote that and I've said this before I've said this many times that the thing [TS]

  that really is unfair to Twitter and hurts twitter is that there compared to [TS]

  facebook maybe mostly by light that sort of Wall Street perspective and they [TS]

  measure they come up short and as time goes on there coming up shorter and [TS]

  shorter because facebook is killing it and twitter is sort of spinning its [TS]

  wheels and it it's unfair to Twitter because twitter has an amazing thing it [TS]

  just happens to be this amazing thing that seemingly naturally is way smaller [TS]

  and Facebook and your argument is be that as it may they're screwed [TS]

  yet with the the real problem with for them and for any company is you know [TS]

  that they're there [TS]

  the the business model I mean Twitter made a choice to be a ad-supported [TS]

  business and that choice has certain you know certain applications to it arm what [TS]

  basically you you can export business you either have to have these extremely [TS]

  high performing adds that convert like Google or you need to have a massive [TS]

  audience that you're very good at arguing arm you know more like a [TS]

  facebook sort of thing and Twitter doesn't doesn't really have either and [TS]

  and so the big problem is that yes for me user perspective to use facebook and [TS]

  use Twitter are are are different experiences but they're competing for [TS]

  the same customer by customer i mean the same advertiser in the same advertising [TS]

  dollars and and that's that that's a problem because what if you're an [TS]

  advertiser and you have limited not just money but limited time like there's a [TS]

  time component to Twitter once their custom ad campaigns facebook wants [TS]

  circus making things google wants us back and can [TS]

  things been traumatic campaigns you know snapchat all these sorts of things and [TS]

  yes there is a shift in money from you know other forms immediate to digital [TS]

  but where are you going to spend your time particularly when uh you can get [TS]

  pretty much the same audience with better data better targeting better [TS]

  tracking and they have enough inventory to satisfy your needs on facebook what's [TS]

  the point in spending money on on Twitter and so that it that's just [TS]

  that's the problem it's a problem from a long-term sustainability perspective and [TS]

  it's a problem from a absolutely from a stock perspective I mean there's a [TS]

  twitter stock is down massively arm from its highs in from from its IPO price in [TS]

  part because you you know that it [TS]

  investors are brightly and masturbation losing faith that there is any sort of [TS]

  real growth story for twitter i mean a company that is more than 10 years old [TS]

  and has yet to turn a profit right and it's a bummer its memories like the [TS]

  thing with twitter is uh there [TS]

  I think I mean backpack with twitter made this decision there was still kind [TS]

  of the sense that you know at of course all consumer services will be at [TS]

  supported and uh and I i actually think that's in its increasingly questionable [TS]

  the Greens that's going to be the point i mean face because facebook and google [TS]

  or so dominance and the big difference is you know they have so much inventory [TS]

  like they can soak up you know so much so much to spend [TS]

  so you have a better product and all the image otherwise you're going anywhere [TS]

  else arm Twitter like Twitter's do the format of twitter is isn't as as great [TS]

  for advertising what is twitter good at twitter is good at data [TS]

  twitter has real-time data and the idea was the data they have about users who [TS]

  are building an interest graph as opposed to a a social graph that would [TS]

  make the potential for targeting you know much more interesting and [TS]

  attractive you know the flip side is the way you get a good interest graph is by [TS]

  going through the hard work of building [TS]

  twitter feed which is really difficult in this is a big problem thinking new [TS]

  users arm but that data the data and happens on Twitter the fact that Twitter [TS]

  is so central to things like the Super Bowl and things that are going on and [TS]

  you can get real-time understanding what's happening and what's what's [TS]

  pulsing was trending uh it's too bad they didn't explore business model built [TS]

  around exploiting that [TS]

  yeah same thing for me last night as a as a political junkie US national [TS]

  political junkie at least watching last night as we recorded the day after the [TS]

  new hampshire primary which wasn't all that exciting I mean it was kind of [TS]

  decision that was one that came out sort of as the the poles got it exactly right [TS]

  but as a political junkie i'm still watching you know i'm watching MSNBC I'm [TS]

  you know on that second screen guy [TS]

  it's a it's a you know and then I'm at the point now where I can't even [TS]

  remember watching as a political junkie watching something like the returns on [TS]

  an election our primary election without Twitter because one of the things always [TS]

  made of frustrating to me is a news junkie is that the news on an election [TS]

  night doesn't come in fast enough [TS]

  the news doesn't come in and so they just fill it with the pundit ree but [TS]

  because that there's not much news coming in they're just going to multiple [TS]

  people to sort of say the same thing right and it doesn't go fast enough to [TS]

  satisfy my attention addled brain [TS]

  ok and so Twitter fills that in because all of a sudden that's where you know [TS]

  somebody will come up with something that's actually an interesting [TS]

  observation or funny Joker something the snark we referred to her yeah with it i [TS]

  think Twitter and Twitter it's funny you mentioned we live in a kind of politics [TS]

  i think the problem for Twitter the charger twitter is actually uh were kind [TS]

  of similar to the problem faced by news in general I mean news is very valuable [TS]

  and it's also worthless because it's fish trap literally I mean it's it's [TS]

  it's an old joke if you're ordering a newspaper industry but to today's news [TS]

  is tomorrow's fish wrap that's exactly it in but the problem now is today's [TS]

  tweet like Twitter so valuable because someone can break a story with a tweet [TS]

  right but like all at [TS]

  the tweet is than worthless or and and/or the the news in the tweeters than [TS]

  worthless rightly it's like heat it's out there like there's there's no [TS]

  there's no value [TS]

  it's out it's a public good now a campaign can be kept it can't be [TS]

  captured [TS]

  uh and that's kind of the case for Twitter on Twitter une it's almost [TS]

  impossible to read a new story about lots of things without there being [TS]

  embedded tweets for example right uh but but that doesn't make it worth something [TS]

  it was from a traditional sort of advertising perspective or twitter has [TS]

  to keep all the eyeballs and then that's what's going on like yes you you can [TS]

  recognize that Twitter is essential and appreciate the fact that Twitter can be [TS]

  essential for you know someone who doesn't use twitter because they're [TS]

  gonna find out about happen on Twitter immediately anyways you know through [TS]

  some other channel through web page they read and in doubt you almost set to [TS]

  think like the model that might have worked for twitter and it would be you [TS]

  know what's the most successful news company argued with something like [TS]

  Bloomberg right where they they actually the news is a means to sell a physical [TS]

  product and the physical product is in part about utilities and part about [TS]

  status in part about the the internal social network that rumor terminals have [TS]

  and in that all washer uses talk to each other and that is something that like [TS]

  that sort of model up a platform model but a different kind of platform model [TS]

  not an advertising buffer model is that might make sense for twitter but this is [TS]

  where you get back to the fact that Twitter didn't even start to Twitter [TS]

  spent so long so many years the beginning not developing the product not [TS]

  developing monetization but basically trying to kill each other arm and I mean [TS]

  you don't metaphorically speaking [TS]

  I still feel like institutionally there is a uncertainty as to what the hell'd [TS]

  twitter is I tonight and it hasn't it they had it when they came out when they [TS]

  came out in $MONTH 2006 or owner of the river something in 2005-2006 is when i [TS]

  signed up [TS]

  there was a clear idea of what it was or what it was supposed to be and then [TS]

  obviously evolved over the years I what they're i'm not saying they should go [TS]

  back to the original idea i mean they didn't even have things like at replies [TS]

  there was all this stuff that came out of user behavior the whole day original [TS]

  idea was to tell people what you're up to it was four I think been an elevator [TS]

  pitch it was your AOL status at a it combined with the old unix finger you [TS]

  know right status right we do you remember that I mean I'd better explain [TS]

  that for anybody who doesn't know you because you would people with with this [TS]

  was in this is advantage arm [TS]

  this was something on him that isn't there isn't some anecdote around [TS]

  messaging services about why someone wanted something that people would would [TS]

  set their this backward couple were in college like that they're there LOL [TS]

  status [TS]

  that's our knowledge when I was in college when i was in college you set [TS]

  your finger status so late when i was in college [TS]

  well I mean I don't know when this fell apart but it you'd get like an account [TS]

  on a unix you know machine and that's where you go to check your email and [TS]

  stuff like that but if you created an account in your home folder with the [TS]

  name . finger now the . made it like a secret invisible file so you wouldn't [TS]

  see it all the time you would just put like where you are like if you were home [TS]

  for winter break and you weren't around you could put it in there and then if [TS]

  you wanted to check the status of somebody you know you would just say [TS]

  finger been at whatever school been goes to . I'd you and then it would read back [TS]

  your half an hour [TS]

  who's the idiot who named the command finger i I don't I don't know maybe they [TS]

  knew exactly what they were doing it appears there's actually a lot of stuff [TS]

  like this in like old texts or stuff that's just really questionable in [TS]

  retrospect right here is navy conventions in like right uh yeah [TS]

  the idea was that you're like poking finger and I'm like what's he up to and [TS]

  then you can just you just update your finger you know and that's what Twitter [TS]

  was trigger was like what are you up to what are you doing and you say i'm [TS]

  eating a sandwich [TS]

  I'm you know getting my first you know coffee of the day [TS]

  and then what and evolved from there I think the thing that the way that I [TS]

  always thought about it is I mean two things Twitter involved really quickly [TS]

  like oh and actually most of the core conventions of Twitter like the at reply [TS]

  and the retweet and other stuff were in the product within like a year janitor [TS]

  and a half and it basically the product has not evolved since then I think the [TS]

  one the one real big addition was the was the real retweet like we could with [TS]

  it not the manual reach right we actually did it [TS]

  arm i think that was 2009 or something like that but other than that like the [TS]

  product with the broad figured it out pretty quickly and the way out of the [TS]

  way I was characterized it I repeat what it's like over a year ago was this was [TS]

  actually a big problem for twitter and the reason was a problem was our music [TS]

  like product-market fit for companies right a company is likely they have an [TS]

  idea for product and it's not quite right but if you gotta figure out who [TS]

  their customers and they get it right and then I once you get that right you [TS]

  your product in your marketing you know your market near the right product for [TS]

  it that's when you pour on the money in you scale and you get a bunch of [TS]

  customers that sort of thing but you have to get product market fit first and [TS]

  almost a challenge for twitter was that they the initial product was so was so [TS]

  powerful it was so good it like they never had to go through that sort of [TS]

  struggle to figure out what it is [TS]

  it just took off and date and so they never had to go through that internal [TS]

  process of figuring out what their product is who the customer is what what [TS]

  it does it just happened and so the problem was it didn't happen [TS]

  perfectly enough to reach everyone like it would write the utility was so good [TS]

  the twitters always been hard to use like to get started I mean to get [TS]

  started from but the utility was so good that all escapes were more than happy to [TS]

  jump through all the hoops to figure out how to use it because the utility was so [TS]

  massive but you get down to like what i call a marginal user right where is it [TS]

  where is the utility up with that I might get from Twitter worth the cost [TS]

  can take me to get up to it and they hit that marginal user after a few hundred [TS]

  million and and just round to a halt right and don't you think that it's the [TS]

  case that it's just too hard to guess and when you're inside and like that [TS]

  you work at Twitter and you're there for a reason to be optimistic and you get it [TS]

  because you actually work there [TS]

  it's easy to maybe even lie to yourself a little bit that during that growth [TS]

  spades space early on while the product is still evolving and there's clearly [TS]

  enthusiasm and you know you've got something electric on your hands that [TS]

  it's very unclear what how you know while the growth is going on about how [TS]

  much growth there is ahead of you [TS]

  it's right in and I think that Twitter guessed wrong i think a lot of investors [TS]

  get strong in terms of it being too optimistic with into is I don't think I [TS]

  2008 two things one Twitter's growth really it happened in $MONTH 2009 where [TS]

  the growth just suddenly stopped that was also the time where Twitter was [TS]

  having massive technical problems like the site could not stay up arm [TS]

  yeah you people don't forget to fail well actually I have a farewell clock [TS]

  vital like to so they had their hands full basically rebuilding the service on [TS]

  the fly it used to be you could count on it like clockwork that it would fail [TS]

  during an apple event hopefully will be used to fill almost every day I mean [TS]

  that was an improvement but it only failed during bigger than well he'd be [TS]

  there was a time where it was on the verge of complete collapse then there [TS]

  was a time where on a daily basis they were up but something like an apple [TS]

  event could make a collapse which is normally but it which is it again for me [TS]

  and you and the folks listen to the talk show [TS]

  yeah that's a big deal but compared to the Superbowl or the academy awards or [TS]

  an election night [TS]

  it's nothing like that however much attention Apple gets compared to any [TS]

  other technical company they don't get that much for a tuesday morning at $TIME [TS]

  noon eastern press event and yet it Twitter would just be you just and that [TS]

  was it so that was a big reason why Dorsey horse out the first time and so [TS]

  they have they have management of people there the site barely staying up there [TS]

  to rebuild the whole thing from scratch [TS]

  I mean Reuters are like being like a ruby on rails application right which is [TS]

  year which is which is all well and good but it's not it's not the framework you [TS]

  would choose to to to handle you know hundreds of millions of tweets the [TS]

  second whatever arm [TS]

  then I and so in that happened at the exact same moment they hit this marginal [TS]

  user and so it was it was it was bad luck up from that perspective in that in [TS]

  that happened at that time arm and then I'll another pointer was but but they [TS]

  all the other thing too is I don't think at that time if you were to tell someone [TS]

  in 2009 that a settee a user base of 300 million users [TS]

  I you know I question how how many of those are actual people using it but [TS]

  even if you say 250 million you it would be hard to tell someone back then that [TS]

  that would not be a big enough user base to have a an ad-supported service [TS]

  yes that's a very good point now before i forget because if i forget this point [TS]

  I'm gonna shoot myself and want to record the whole episode because i [TS]

  thought one of the most interesting things I read your piece and I knew this [TS]

  I've known this before I've read this before but it's one of those facts that [TS]

  goes in one ear and out the other for me and I think for a lot of other people [TS]

  but I almost feel like the situation this whole situation we're talking about [TS]

  with twitter struggling linkedin having some tough times and only facebook and [TS]

  google really thriving in this market where people previously foresaw wow lots [TS]

  and lots of companies can have this free with AD supported business and succeed [TS]

  is the fact that very very consistently over i am not even sure you could tell [TS]

  me the time frame but decades at least about 1.2 percent of GDP gets spent on [TS]

  advertising [TS]

  yep it's it's it's amazingly consistent like so there's our average on recession [TS]

  it goes down to it goes on GP goes down it's amazing how consistent is right [TS]

  advertising is and I know I'm academic essay i'm a big shot and advertising but [TS]

  I do run a business that's fundamentally based on advertising i think that the [TS]

  nature of a knock on wood like even like 2008 you know daring fireball actually [TS]

  did pretty well through the recession baby because i'm a boutique you know [TS]

  publisher but there's absolutely no question that the adage that advertise [TS]

  in any kind [TS]

  recession advertiser's the first thing to dry up it is the first thing always [TS]

  because that's the first thing any company when I say we might need to [TS]

  tighten our spending its advertising is always the first thing to go right and [TS]

  then when times are flush it is one of the first things that come rushing back [TS]

  where they're like wow we've got a little money to spend [TS]

  let's fuck let's dump it in some ads and and really accelerate what you know [TS]

  we've got something good going on right now let's spend some advertising to make [TS]

  it go even better but it it's amazing that it's very very consistent that it's [TS]

  like just a little over one percent of gdp which means that it's not necessary [TS]

  that the pipe can't grow but the pie can only grow as the overall economy grows [TS]

  land its there's no way to make that go and I feel like a lot of the stories i [TS]

  I'm not even saying that I'm that I'm not wrong about it that I didn't think [TS]

  I'm a little surprised at this situation right now we're the only big companies [TS]

  that really seemed to be thriving financially and growing our Facebook and [TS]

  Google the only ones i don't think i would have forcing that but i think it [TS]

  makes some sense when you think of the fact that the ad spends is sort of a [TS]

  fixed amount of money and Facebook and Google are clearly growing and they have [TS]

  they frankly have superior products i mean they have the best targeting [TS]

  especially facebook i mean you know Facebook is growing much faster than [TS]

  google is our particular particular mobile and other growth is on mobile [TS]

  they have superior targeting they have a superior ad placement like of people [TS]

  don't appreciate like a Facebook ad literally takes over the entire screen [TS]

  of your phone like a baby only for a split second or whatever but like it's [TS]

  the most immersive at we've come up with intact it any beyond like the pre-roll [TS]

  on a video but that approval is kind of annoying right that's getting in our way [TS]

  whereas where willingly but you're not using your facebook but we're really [TS]

  immersing ourselves in this feed and just scrolling through in the feed is so [TS]

  clear like this that's why it works so well for doing fireball right i mean you [TS]

  and I always give you credit for actually being a real pioneer when it [TS]

  comes to this sort of native native advertising feed based advertising is is [TS]

  the advertising that works on mobile [TS]

  you came up with it before the native advertising was a word I know you did [TS]

  and and it's like it is the ad format that works like every every time there's [TS]

  a new a new sort of medium uh it takes time to figure out the ABS at work right [TS]

  the initial like TV ads for people reading radio scripts right there and [TS]

  they had to figure out [TS]

  no you should actually TV is for scripted drama so how about we do a [TS]

  30-second scripted dramas at write and write a little 30 the best ads are [TS]

  always little 30-second shows right exactly and so with what we started out [TS]

  it is you see we started with web pages were just like plastering on these [TS]

  banner ads because that's kinda what we do with newspapers right and who better [TS]

  isn't there who had a beautiful protagonist of your little story than a [TS]

  about up we are this is a very this is a very tightly it were pretty a real bow [TS]

  and anthropomorphic human bowel infected in the diarrhea there's a lovable [TS]

  character [TS]

  no but you're right you gotta find and sometimes it's natural and sometimes [TS]

  it's not and they always try to cram the last one onto the new black banner ads [TS]

  work we're basically lifting newspaper type advertising and putting on the web [TS]

  and it was dumped it made no sense [TS]

  I especially no sense because if you think about it i would say is a little [TS]

  bit more like magazines and newspapers first thing just because the shape of [TS]

  the rectangle is a little bit the rectangle of a web page is a little bit [TS]

  more like a magazine especially in the nineties when the format was invented [TS]

  and screens were smaller it was a little bit more like a magazine its but [TS]

  magazines and newspapers are kind of two sides of the same coin when it comes to [TS]

  advertising formats right there's a whole page ads but that banner ads were [TS]

  like the ads in the back of the magazine right right the blue you know little [TS]

  shapes of rectangles with content flowing around them the in in in [TS]

  magazines and newspapers [TS]

  I mean they the ones that made all the money where the full-page ads right the [TS]

  backpage plated it was more if they will magazine a particular you think of like [TS]

  the classic example like fashion magazine sort of thing if it actually is [TS]

  more like a feed if you think about it right because you're you're you're not [TS]

  jumping around you flip through those right yeah exactly it is very analogous [TS]

  to like an Instagram feed [TS]

  exactly this is why this way I i I've always been a I think native advertising [TS]

  that a really bad rap because of some really egregious examples of people like [TS]

  you know being you're abusing and doing dumb stuff advertorials write it right [TS]

  that was act things that were written to sort of conflated what was actually the [TS]

  content of the publication and the this thing that was written by a sponsor I [TS]

  mean the family there's always been terrible writing on all formats right [TS]

  but that doesn't mean the idea of having and add that is a similar of a similar [TS]

  type to the content that is around it is a bad thing that's that's how effective [TS]

  advertising has always been I mean no one's up in arms because you flip [TS]

  through a fashion magazine and on one page there's there's editorial on the [TS]

  next page there's you know an ad like that that that's a good things into [TS]

  meeting with TV I mean yes you may be annoyed by it but no one is like up and [TS]

  ethical arms because uh oh my gosh they also scripted this television commercial [TS]

  i mean like that's that's just the way that's just way it is I and the feed is [TS]

  is really the key to digital advertising you immerse yourself in it you go [TS]

  through it [TS]

  the problem is how it is why work during fireball people go to daring fireball [TS]

  write your percentage of people who go straight to the homepage I don't know [TS]

  what it is but I'm sure it's much higher than the vast majority websites are [TS]

  getting traffic through social or other through other feats basically and I [TS]

  think that's the real key to making advertising work is you have to own a [TS]

  destination that people go to and willingly immerse themselves in that [TS]

  feed they scroll through they read your your your advertisements just like they [TS]

  read your other pieces so they're actually consuming them in their [TS]

  habituated to click on the link and follow through and uh and that's the [TS]

  advertising that works the problem is a particularly on mobile uh people where [TS]

  do people start way they they start on Twitter and my Twitter still has [TS]

  potential [TS]

  I it but the vast majority of people the vast vast majority people start on [TS]

  facebook that that's that's the app they open when they're doing nothing nothing [TS]

  to is is advertising works best when you're not doing something [TS]

  right if I'm sitting down to do a job or to accomplish something i'm focused and [TS]

  I don't want to be distracted that's why I think the priest the pre-roll ads on [TS]

  videos i think is is going to turn out to be less effective format and people [TS]

  had hoped they would be the evidence video so it's going to be effective but [TS]

  it's an interruption which not know you could put you in a bad mood [TS]

  Dom always does and it often i often stop and dad just close the tap [TS]

  I and especially and I know it [TS]

  my tolerance for it has grown slightly like but the ones when they make you say [TS]

  you have to watch the whole 30 then it's instant close i don't care what it is i [TS]

  don't know that i may be like once or twice a month i'll wait through the [TS]

  whole 30 because it really seems like something i have to see but it it [TS]

  doesn't and when I can stop skipping after three seconds i skip it every time [TS]

  I can do maybe remember once in this like the last two or three months where [TS]

  there was something that was so compelling there was I don't know I'll [TS]

  never remember this but there was like there was a YouTube at one time and I [TS]

  could have skipped it within three seconds but i was instantly like oh I've [TS]

  got to see this and it was really pretty clever and I was like wow that was that [TS]

  was well done right but baby I know you mean you in at No 1 started a TV show [TS]

  with the advertising at the beginning right [TS]

  he was always would be in the middle right you have the cliffhanger and then [TS]

  go to commercial and then you'd know you know man who has great pre-rolls Geico [TS]

  gecko has a series of pre-rolls that that are the gist of it is this this [TS]

  this adds going to be at this ad for geico is going to be over before you can [TS]

  even skip it right just they just buy like a four second spot [TS]

  no I think that that's that's the way to do it right and it really leaves leaves [TS]

  me with this incredibly your graph of them from not wasting your time [TS]

  alright they didn't waste my time and I think hey that was pretty clever you [TS]

  know I it's it's both they get a little bit of my gratitude and they get a [TS]

  little bit of my admiration for being clever [TS]

  yep now I did the i agree arm but did the thing with that was so compelling [TS]

  about facebook is armed [TS]

  you know I i made a stock out [TS]

  my podcast exponent but like people don't schedule facebook time right they [TS]

  don't put their calendar this is what I'm gonna go check facebook like a check [TS]

  facebook when they're standing in line at the store or they're sitting on the [TS]

  culture like whatever i guess it's it's found time it's in your posture is [TS]

  you're not doing anything you're just kind of mindlessly going through it and [TS]

  that sounds bad but that's actually makes it an incredible advertising [TS]

  platform because you're your minds open your open to whatever using your feet [TS]

  right and that's when advertisers particularly brand advertisers that want [TS]

  to build sort of an affinity for the brand a positive association that's when [TS]

  they most want to reach you and it makes I mean that's what makes Facebook's [TS]

  market so incredible it's not just there's so many devices out there [TS]

  something that they have so many users and it's not just that there's more time [TS]

  spent on mobile devices it's the kind of time that is spent and and they have [TS]

  this feed and they have this great ad format and frankly if you're an [TS]

  advertiser like why would you want to go you know why would you want to go [TS]

  anywhere else and that's the challenge that everyone else you know in facebook [TS]

  is still going to user base and there's still facebook last quarter and it you [TS]

  shouldn't be able to happen but it happened they get they got they got more [TS]

  users their users use the product more than ever had before they increase the [TS]

  ad low per user so people are seeing more ads and they increase the price [TS]

  charged per ad because they're so effective they can do that like they're [TS]

  they're just this gargantuan monster that's going to eat all this stuff up in [TS]

  and if your Linkedin and you want to you want to have your own ad network or your [TS]

  help you have display ads or like like how can you compete know the average [TS]

  don't care [TS]

  advertisers want no return on their investment and it and so one facebook is [TS]

  Right the best return to the best ads but also there's an investment [TS]

  standpoint Facebook's offering and then product you go and you can do you can do [TS]

  a video ad on Instagram uh anyone who sees it will show them at their facebook [TS]

  feed that kind of reminds them of the product and then if you have a promotion [TS]

  you can have you know different things involve a messenger like it's an [TS]

  end-to-end offering so [TS]

  you could master the facebook ad interface get really good at it and then [TS]

  while I call you really want to go create a custom at for Pinterest I mean [TS]

  like it if there isn't [TS]

  there's a degree of people are busy and why should i why do they want to waste [TS]

  their time if they can just their time is better spent spending more on [TS]

  facebook and google and google is obviously the other the other one here I [TS]

  think Google's less compelling on mobile generally but they also google has be [TS]

  even better tools advertising tools the end and offering from YouTube [TS]

  double-click to adsense like it's all one interface you can do one by doing [TS]

  all the same time it's very very compelling [TS]

  speaking of sponsorships let me take another break here and today itself it [TS]

  is it so it's a funny before I listen to your ankles like I I'm someone's working [TS]

  with me I'm finding my archives in order like categorize them stuff and and she [TS]

  remarked that while you might have waterfalls advertising and I'm like well [TS]

  I mean the whole premise checker is to be about more about the business [TS]

  strategy attack i don't really do product reviews and also that sort of [TS]

  thing arm but that entails I talk about advertising it is kind of it amazing how [TS]

  will people armed think about and talk about that side of it when it's so [TS]

  fundamental to the the experience of technology i mean arm so you know the [TS]

  absurd people private board but I find it fascinating that let me tell you [TS]

  about a good friends at igloo so igloo is the internet you'll actually like [TS]

  there's a way did what is an internet even just think about it it's a website [TS]

  that is internal for you that's the intra you have a website for your team [TS]

  your your company you go there and this is where you can communicate you can [TS]

  share files you can contact each other you can have shared calendars all this [TS]

  sort of stuff that you might want to do and instead of having it spread across [TS]

  seven different products and different things you have to log into [TS]

  it's all in one place and it is configurable so if you only need the [TS]

  micro blog and the calendar and the file-sharing that's all you really need [TS]

  you can set it up like that you can have you know what's the micro-blogging a [TS]

  little like internal Twitter just for your team really really clever and their [TS]

  stuff it's all the web all web based you don't have to host it yourself they [TS]

  hosted its private to you though and it everything works from phone tablet big [TS]

  big desktop browser that [TS]

  big desktop browser that [TS]

  spread across your 27-inch imac whatever you want it's going to look great and [TS]

  they can help you keep doing your way better you don't have to like work like [TS]

  with the in Blu system or whatever your team just keeps working the way it wants [TS]

  to work like you share your files where you want to just glue is where you put [TS]

  them [TS]

  it's a really really it's really just about making collaboration not be [TS]

  painful [TS]

  it's an internet you'll actually like it I get it they've embraced this word it's [TS]

  it's it's and like a lot of their advertising stuff in there's talking [TS]

  points you know this whole internet you'll actually like is based on the [TS]

  fact that you most people work in a place where they have a quote-unquote [TS]

  internet and it's this thing that people hate and that they try to work around [TS]

  igloo is like embracing the word and they're trying to like just flip it on [TS]

  its head because it's really really clever software modern stuff that is [TS]

  really optimized for the way people want to work and making the people who use it [TS]

  happy as opposed to having this thing that just makes like the IT guys happy [TS]

  for whatever reason that they chose whatever crappy internet are out there [TS]

  other than equal so where do you go to find out more you it's easy go to Google [TS]

  software.com / tts the / tts is the talkshow very very easy to remember you [TS]

  can try it for free anyway it doesn't mean it's not even like a special offer [TS]

  just because you're listening to the show you can try it for free but I go [TS]

  there go to the / tts version known and they'll know you came from the show my [TS]

  thanks to a glue longtime sponsors of the show with a great great product that [TS]

  i know a lot of people listen to the show already using so my thanks to them [TS]

  the heat i am there is a degree of i-i've been right one area and what [TS]

  about advertising is for publishing perspective just because publishers are [TS]

  there they're the least equipped I mean if Twitter can't compete with facebook i [TS]

  mean what chances like your your local newspaper have arm and so I've been your [TS]

  writing for a few years now there's gonna be kind of a shakeout you know not [TS]

  just it's been having newspapers for a long time but with a digital-first [TS]

  platforms as well armed and the hope is that in the long run there's gonna be [TS]

  here neways demonisation things that are [TS]

  you know things that work well what time along in a bit just I keep thinking [TS]

  about that like i said i wanted to mention that one-point-two percent [TS]

  spendings thing and it maybe that will change in the future who knows maybe [TS]

  we'll go out maybe go down but it's been consistent for so long that you kinda [TS]

  gotta count on it and therefore go back to the nineties and the web is erupting [TS]

  if there was any idea in your head that the web was going to get some amount of [TS]

  advertising money then it was obviously going to come away from existing sources [TS]

  and I think it was obvious that the most existing most obvious place where it's [TS]

  going to come away from his newspapers and if newspapers wanted to to maintain [TS]

  any kind of even stagnation let alone growth but at least no not deflate they [TS]

  needed to immediately embrace it and make sure that they were selling as much [TS]

  money on advertising on the web as possible and very very few of them did [TS]

  what I just you know it's hard it's it's easy to sit in your armchair quarterback [TS]

  but it's hard to really change your fundamental business you know [TS]

  particularly given the better rates that could always the guy was good for print [TS]

  but I i think one thing that that's potentially x exciting in the very long [TS]

  run and ice [TS]

  I always has to stay tuned for exciting because this is excitement that entails [TS]

  a lot of a lot of you know creative destruction along the way with arm is [TS]

  it's always you might there to wake Twitter would be better off today if [TS]

  they would have not pursued an app based business model like if they would have [TS]

  figured out some way to because again they what they have is incredibly [TS]

  valuable and I think the real danger before now actually this kind of changed [TS]

  my tune a bit is like they need to not lose what they have right they need to [TS]

  be very careful use the big the big problem for twitter is one of over [TS]

  $MONEY billion people are around a billion people have tried the product [TS]

  and left it and it's really hard to get people to come back like it's much [TS]

  harder than the first time it's an amazing number right it really is an [TS]

  amazing number i mean that's incredible [TS]

  I so won its questions they can get them back but to our Twitter it is competing [TS]

  very different environment now whereas you know what Twitter was computer came [TS]

  along right when the iphone came along or year before and it really took off [TS]

  once there were like clients on the focus was such a perfect mobile product [TS]

  like it had the feed the end it had it was small bite-sized sort of stuff you [TS]

  can dip it and dip out so easily [TS]

  it just fit mobile so well and there's a real opportunity where people were [TS]

  forming habits they were forming the way they interact with these devices and so [TS]

  it wasn't just when Twitter was competing for users in 2009-2010 they [TS]

  were competing for that mobile habit and today that people's habits are [TS]

  well-established like and it's mostly Facebook and Facebook is also now's [TS]

  facebook has expanded far beyond who you know like to what you're interested in [TS]

  facebook knows more about what you're interested in and then Twitter it [TS]

  Twitter does arm and the like [TS]

  it's very legitimate questions like does twitter is it really realistic to expect [TS]

  we're two ever grow to user base and if it's not and I would contend it's not uh [TS]

  then Twitter should actually be focused first and foremost on preserving its [TS]

  user base which would argue against changes that are too extreme what are [TS]

  you for addressing you know abuse issues and stuff like that that drive people [TS]

  away from the platform arm and uh and i'm not sure that uh twitter twitter [TS]

  agrees with that and so I then there's a real danger for the company that they [TS]

  pursue an unattainable goal and then what they have in the meantime I kind of [TS]

  feel like even with Jack back at the helm which I I I do feel like if anybody [TS]

  can fix it at him but I do feel that there's just this inherent conflict [TS]

  between their internal ambitions and a realistic a measure of what it couldn't [TS]

  should be yeah and you also have to feel like you at this point you always have [TS]

  to kind of hope they get acquired arm know that is where i was going to go [TS]

  yeah yeah I me the there a nice like arm you know they're like they're arguably [TS]

  still overvalued based on [TS]

  on on their potential revenue i'm not a stock analyst but arm uh they but with [TS]

  you know with under someone someone else if they could be free from the restraint [TS]

  either one build a new kind of business or to just be be part of portfolio on [TS]

  the problem big problem is you know they're there do a two wires that really [TS]

  makes sense of our google or facebook [TS]

  yeah who already asked a lot of all the infrastructure could plug twitter in the [TS]

  problem google is facebook twitter did this big deal with with with google to [TS]

  give them access to the tweet to the fire hose and in a great double click [TS]

  with their with their ad buying platform so in medical school already has [TS]

  everything from twitter that they need like they don't necessarily need to buy [TS]

  them to get what they already have uh I think the menu and a disc problem [TS]

  unplug that the fireplug them 10 I mean to Twitter do it no google is getting [TS]

  google is at Google effectively has twitter both from a product perspective [TS]

  and from an advertising perspective his Twitter like twitter is building in this [TS]

  this this deep double clicking it got our integration you know integration and [TS]

  so you can you use your double data and buying our stuff so facebook i think [TS]

  Facebook is actually the more likely require unless Google does it to prevent [TS]

  facebook from buying Twitter are but that's really the the two candidates i [TS]

  did Josh Topolsky podcast a couple days ago we could go tomorrow and you know [TS]

  it's always fun doing the show with him but because i feel like we fight so much [TS]

  and we talked about this and I just said in broad terms [TS]

  facebook has been one of the things I'm surprised about in the last few years is [TS]

  that Facebook has been a very good steward of acquisitions and Instagram is [TS]

  my favorite example because when facebook bought instagram i thought well [TS]

  that there goes a thing I'll you know I really like Instagram I'm sure it's [TS]

  going to go downhill and they're gonna record and instead it's they've more or [TS]

  less left it alone and let them evolve it in a way that's very natural to what [TS]

  Instagram set out to be from the get-go you know if anything all they've done is [TS]

  just adds [TS]

  port better better tech on the backend you know and they've let them grow very [TS]

  organically and that google is not so good as an acquisition you know that [TS]

  they hire a lot of things in rectum and some people pointed out to me that [TS]

  actually I I may ask I think I maybe I'm overlooking that and maybe i'm also [TS]

  overlooking that the transition from google to alphabet in that there's [TS]

  companies i will nest that google now alphabet acquired and as let stand alone [TS]

  as as their own entity and let them be their own thing and not have to answer [TS]

  to you know the wall street on their own and that maybe it would be you know [TS]

  don't think it is a google acquisition a twitter but think of it as an alphabet [TS]

  acquisition and Twitter and they let Twitter be Twitter but only value is [TS]

  being a part of [TS]

  yeah that's are going well it was about that is being a part of google though [TS]

  because death it because you can't forget the money making part of it like [TS]

  the the a department what's cool watches like some sort of like fashion project i [TS]

  mean frankly facebook would be better choir like Facebook is an unbelievably [TS]

  well-run company i like it and that the acquisition . you made our part of it [TS]

  are they mark zuckerberg has been very explicit about how he thinks about [TS]

  growing and developing products and where they get the product right first [TS]

  they grow the user base only with a certain level do they slowly figure out [TS]

  then they build a business presence and then they monetize the business presence [TS]

  you know it in a way that makes sense and it's easy to say oh well it's easy [TS]

  for facebook XR making money so they can afford to take the time with instagram [TS]

  they can afford in no time with whatsapp but people forget that facebook was [TS]

  under a lot of pressure after the IPO their their stock was also down by like [TS]

  have they they were getting a ton of pressure and Facebook did not do the [TS]

  easy thing they didn't just start slapping up ads right they took time [TS]

  they rebuilt their mobile that their entire mobile stack they redid [TS]

  everything they realize that they didn't take the wrong approach with html5 [TS]

  approach they rebuilt it made a great experience got people on board and then [TS]

  they figure out how to monetize it and then in the again it's the best digital [TS]

  ad you ever seen and and now it's just it's it's it's a money spigot [TS]

  and the point is even when times were hard they were disciplined and focused [TS]

  on getting the experience right first and then deleted the company's like they [TS]

  dig the understand this space the internet social i think they'd be the [TS]

  best stewards of Twitter are as much as that rankles Twitter on Twitter users in [TS]

  particular uh but I mean who knows [TS]

  here's here in this to me is a sign of how run and again i say this i feel like [TS]

  i'm an interesting position I because somebody who does not use facebook but I [TS]

  do admire them and I do recognize that they are very well-run company Dustin [TS]

  Curtis had a tweet last week days after everybody released earnings I'm gonna [TS]

  trust his numbers i didn't double-check them so there's an area of publisher [TS]

  correction next week but I trust Dustin Curtis that he went through all these [TS]

  companies you know that the you know the revenue that the the financial things [TS]

  that they filed last week and its revenue per employee for calendar year [TS]

  2015 yahoo was 400 19,000 Twitter 462 thousand microsoft almost double that [TS]

  789 thousand google 1,000,000 161,000 per employee facebook 1,000,000 412 [TS]

  thousand dollars per employee $MONEY in revenue and then at the top of the pile [TS]

  was apple with little bit over two million in revenue right her employee [TS]

  which is a really a mean it's okay so it's closer to apple and microsoft and [TS]

  revenue for employee that is very true and I and they're well ahead of google [TS]

  right and they're growing like they they're like the revenue was up like [TS]

  forty percent last year something but rather they're catching up [TS]

  that to me is really really those numbers really fit with my gut feeling [TS]

  of how well run these companies are you know and and how efficient they are how [TS]

  well organized they are like whenever i hear about Twitter's headcount I'm just [TS]

  blown away like 4000 or something with that like just little things like I've [TS]

  heard at army and this might have been reduced recently but at one point like [TS]

  last year that they had [TS]

  hundred iOS engineers and their iOS apps quite frankly or shit I mean maybe [TS]

  that's why you know there's there's there might be a very strong two lines [TS]

  like Nvidia yeah and too many chefs spoil the you know Stuart whatever the [TS]

  hell you're making and you know the mythical I'd like we would hike with my [TS]

  metaphors with his picture mall you know throw in a what's-his-name's mythical [TS]

  man month month there [TS]

  yes you know that a hundred iOS engineers really it not only does it not [TS]

  get you a better app faster it gets you a worse app but I it's it's almost mine [TS]

  instagram has like ten right or something like that [TS]

  I it's not a big my understanding at least is that it's not a big engineering [TS]

  crew at all and at the very least they had up until the point where facebook [TS]

  acquired them their their engineering team was easily fit around a conference [TS]

  table [TS]

  yep really interesting numbers and Facebook's numbers are really astounding [TS]

  and if you think about it not profits revenue per employee and that's where [TS]

  you know the one company that sticks out here is Apple because apples a hardware [TS]

  company and so it is it easier in some ways for Apple to generate revenue and [TS]

  it's you know that there's a remarkable story with apples you are too big of [TS]

  attention to go into here but that Apple's profit is so high because their [TS]

  margins are so probably the most abnormal thing about Apple as a company [TS]

  and there's a lot of things that are abnormal about Apple are their profit [TS]

  margins on on hardware and in an inn in all of these industries may be other [TS]

  than watches where the margins are notoriously small the margins are [TS]

  notoriously small in the pc market they're notoriously small in the phone [TS]

  market [TS]

  I mean they're negative for some of these companies in the cell phone market [TS]

  but it is easier for Apple to generate just revenue because it's they're [TS]

  selling you know eight-hundred-dollar phones and and $1,500 macbooks whereas [TS]

  facebook is making all that revenue on you know a buck or two at a time on [TS]

  these ad ad views [TS]

  yep no it is no it is remarkable stats are you actually just the Dustin posted [TS]

  the [TS]

  profit from play as well okay uh yeah it's right below it I so Apple start the [TS]

  top our for 465,000 per employee facebook second second again 290,000 per [TS]

  employee which is again a fantastic number google 250,000 per employee [TS]

  microsoft 202,000 per employee yahoo 54,000 per employee and twitter- 130,000 [TS]

  primarily with a really matters to Twitter's and 10 years old in right in [TS]

  in a month like that that's the problem people think what all Twitter could do [TS]

  this Twitter could do that that they could do should be happening when you're [TS]

  three years older you're four years old [TS]

  not when you're 10 years old and a public company it is true i mean i'd [TS]

  still kind of chop them up as sort of a newbie you know that you know like [TS]

  somehow google is established and facebook even though it's a similar [TS]

  vintage like it act so mature but it it given credit for it and there's some [TS]

  part of me that has been tricked into giving Twitter a little bit more slack [TS]

  on they'll figure it out there you know they're still new [TS]

  whereas yeah it's true i remember i started my twitter account 2006 so it's [TS]

  it's 10 years yahoos just inexcusable [TS]

  I mean that's good i mean the more I think about it the more i I've rolled my [TS]

  eyes at the fact that the basic story of Yahoo's stock price is that it's [TS]

  entirely based on their holdings in alibaba and if you subtract without [TS]

  their holdings in alibaba are worth Yahoo's worth noting just did there's no [TS]

  there's no value in that and I almost feel like I've rolled my eyes at that [TS]

  light come on lots of people to use yahoo for stuff and now i'm starting to [TS]

  think you know what i think the market has that exactly right that way any [TS]

  there's there's just no there's no growth there at all it's just drinking [TS]

  it's his number the revenue and earnings are going down every single quarter arm [TS]

  you know the of the core business and anyway they're they're probably going to [TS]

  be acquired by verizon arm which acquired LS year LOL actually instead of [TS]

  a misguided of the probably always your yahoo hired mercenary uh with the which [TS]

  would double down on [TS]

  decor yahoo problem which was thinking that they were a company that has never [TS]

  been a tech company yahoo started with guys making a list of sites on a page [TS]

  right i mean like it it's always been a media company arm from the beginning and [TS]

  thinking that it was a tech company when it wasn't armed [TS]

  it's that maybe the promise that they hired the wrong people to to accelerate [TS]

  the growth as a media company was the guy co Terry single right Holly wait [TS]

  several days i think i'm he [TS]

  yeah i know i think he and that was the vision that he had I think that's one [TS]

  that would have made more sense are good but that's also you remember media [TS]

  companies are also all having trouble so say here they were together right it's [TS]

  not clear that they would be that I mean these Orizon acquisition makes sense LOL [TS]

  to their credit spent a lot of money developing the programmatic advertising [TS]

  technology you know this is kinda like the arm the the android of a dying [TS]

  relative to like Facebook Facebook's the iphone or google the iphone uh where [TS]

  your your target is what really slaughtered newspapers and sites in [TS]

  general right [TS]

  used to be you and by you if you want to reach someone in dayton ohio you would [TS]

  buy an ad in the Dayton newspaper right now you can just do a programmatic by or [TS]

  you want to target someone that's in dayton ohio you do all sorts of things [TS]

  and you don't even know where he's going to show up at the shop on on whatever [TS]

  side it might be and this is a reason why webpages saucony we talked about [TS]

  this last summer arm because of this like there's a misalignment where we're [TS]

  between the publishers and advertisers and sort of thing but just so much more [TS]

  efficient arm to reach me that way uh and and so Elle has the technology [TS]

  they're there [TS]

  verizon has lots of interesting data about customers arm and and adding yahoo [TS]

  just add scale to that product makes sense arm i I'm sure they'll pay some [TS]

  people were shocked at how how will the priceline of being yeah and did you know [TS]

  I i know i mentioned this before too but it's kind of a fascinating story but the [TS]

  way that newspapers got squeezed at both ends like we're newspapers made [TS]

  fundamentally make most of their money two ways at the very biggest adds the [TS]

  full-page ads that were in a section of [TS]

  newspaper like page 3 as a full-page ad page five and six as a two-page spread [TS]

  and Renee's enter on the comments in the lifestyle section [TS]

  yeah and then the other huge source of money where the tiny little text [TS]

  classified ads all the way in the back of the newspaper because it was two [TS]

  different things [TS]

  the big ones up front was ok macy's has a lot of money and they want to tell [TS]

  everybody in Philadelphia that they're having a two-day memorial day sale [TS]

  how do you tell everybody in Philadelphia you're having to sell you [TS]

  put it two page spread and the Philadelphia Inquirer the back of the [TS]

  mat the back of the newspaper ads were the reader is looking for a job where do [TS]

  you go to look for a job you go to the back of the Philadelphia Inquirer and [TS]

  find a tiny little text add that that you know has a job listing and the those [TS]

  classified ads were incredibly lucrative the prices are most expensive most [TS]

  expensive ink in the world or and I and I and they used to price them super [TS]

  smart ID [TS]

  I when I worked at the philadelphia inquirer I you know I worked with the [TS]

  promotions are that classified Department i used to do graphic design [TS]

  for the little promotional things where they would they would need like if they [TS]

  need to like a flyer for something whatever i do design work they were [TS]

  priced all over the place so like I 33 lines of text in the executive the [TS]

  classified ads are all the same fun you don't get to style at all although they [TS]

  would charge you actually if you wanted like bold right so all right so I got a [TS]

  help wanted ad was super expensive might be like a hundred and fifty dollars for [TS]

  like a little three-line help wanted ad in The Sunday Enquirer but if you had if [TS]

  you found somebody's wallet and wanted to just put like a lost in order to you [TS]

  lost your wallet you wanted to put like a little lost and found out and they [TS]

  would charge like seven dollars they would just take like some bucks for you [TS]

  to do it but they had every ad was sold by human being who transcribed [TS]

  everything and they could be a very very very they were like they were like the [TS]

  police to make sure that nobody tried to sneak a help wanted ad into that [TS]

  lost-and-found right just to get away in other words i got no way you know like [TS]

  they knew exactly know each one was way more pix biz price right at the pain . [TS]

  for anybody who wants to do something totally and then of course that business [TS]

  just completely washed away nobody's looking for [TS]

  job that buys it sunday newspaper yep i I'm young enough that I i found jobs [TS]

  through the classifieds arm don't have to it was the only way to find a job and [TS]

  it was your waiter was the only way to find out [TS]

  apartment yep ya know it's a it's ya know the newspapers are screwed [TS]

  there's i mean i guess the only other way the only other way you could find an [TS]

  apartment was there like walk through this walk up and down the streets of [TS]

  Philadelphia and see if anybody had like a rooms for rent sign in front of the [TS]

  building that was the only other way to develop I wasn't anything else you know [TS]

  it would like savages let me take one more break and thank our final sponsor [TS]

  of the day and it is our good friends at fracture fracture is a company that [TS]

  prints photos directly onto glass colors pop like you won't believe in it even [TS]

  comes on a solid backing that is ready to mount right out of the package all [TS]

  you have to do is stick the included screws in the wall and then you just [TS]

  hang it up and you're done [TS]

  so it's not like a photo that you then go buy a frame put it in a frame and [TS]

  frame it everything you need to put it up on a wall or for the smaller ones too [TS]

  like prop them up on your desk or on a mantle or something like that it's all [TS]

  right there in the packaging it's like the actual thing that they ship the the [TS]

  glass been is you take it apart and there it is and it you can hang it right [TS]

  now while it's super super clever and it looks super super sharp because you [TS]

  don't have this border from a frame or any kind of mad around it's just the [TS]

  rectangle itself is just like edge-to-edge the photo [TS]

  it is amazing and quality is really really great i can't eat it [TS]

  the ease-of-use is amazing because you don't have to like stick your photo in a [TS]

  frame and get it to to look square and all lined up and not rotate slightly by [TS]

  like one degree as you close the frame up or anything like that so there's a [TS]

  huge convenience factor but there's also a factor which is that it looks as good [TS]

  or better than any way of printing your photos that I've ever seen it's really [TS]

  great quality and it's all really affordable to with prices starting at [TS]

  just 15 bucks for the smallest square size they make great gifts and they are [TS]

  the perfect way to celebrate a shared memory with the any of your friends and [TS]

  family and its really really a [TS]

  great idea as all of our photos are digital these days [TS]

  it really is for me personally it's just so great and then and it i can't say [TS]

  that you know it's hard to put into words how great it is to take your very [TS]

  favorite photos of the people that mean the most to you and turn them into [TS]

  something analog something that isn't powered by a battery and doesn't glow [TS]

  and it's just like a nice little artifact that you can do something with [TS]

  each fracture is hand assembled and checked for quality by the small team in [TS]

  gainesville florida that does this and if you need any other reason to buy one [TS]

  you know whether you're somebody who's already bought one before or if you've [TS]

  never check them out but you've heard me talk about it you can get ten percent [TS]

  off using the code talk show 10 all one word talk show 10 talk show 10 and you [TS]

  will save ten percent off any order bigger small at fracture me.com so my [TS]

  thanks to them what else we have what else has been going on i was i was on [TS]

  vacation last week's is I I'm missing stuff but there was on others earnings [TS]

  which is I spend a lot of time on [TS]

  yeah we might as well I talked about a little bit last week but I you know it's [TS]

  it's it interesting all the way well Apple i mean i have my arm I'm a little [TS]

  bit extra on a on a whim here but I thought the apple earnings were fine arm [TS]

  i think the the what I did why I do this in a daily update but I went back and I [TS]

  charted all or I put on all the apples earnings starting from I think 2010 on [TS]

  that was no 2011 when they changed but i did and noted the iphone although I but [TS]

  it annual earnings at the mother earn each year is hard to do [TS]

  quarter-on-quarter comparisons with the iphone because Apple shifted when they [TS]

  watched in 2011 and also China in particular in particular change the [TS]

  dates the quarters that launched in $YEAR so i just did annual annual [TS]

  revenue and and and and revenue 444 Apple arm or for the iphone specifically [TS]

  and if you charted we [TS]

  revenue from 2008 2014 and then you use that to forecast uh to forecast 2015 [TS]

  2016 uh Apple significantly outperformed uh what you would expect them to in 2016 [TS]

  so they're their earnings that they just reported to the 16 quarter one were were [TS]

  what something like 20 billion or the regularly make some significant number i [TS]

  should probably hoping that everything about uh was well above all you'd expect [TS]

  it to be armed [TS]

  the problem core problem was that the first or last year was so unbelievably [TS]

  massive it was like 50 or 60 billion more than you would expect or something [TS]

  like that right at it it the the year-over-year comparison [TS]

  they barely beat last year and actually if you look at the inventory numbers in [TS]

  the cell through numbers they probably slightly under center for me is very [TS]

  close either going under for next quarter and and I look at that and I [TS]

  don't buy the iphone has peaks narrative arm i think that Apple there was a [TS]

  one-time event that there was a combination of polling sales forward [TS]

  like people upgrade earlier than they would have but if that was all that was [TS]

  happening then this sales this year would have been significantly less than [TS]

  they were right the fact that they managed to stay the same and he's [TS]

  looking backwards were well above what you would have expected in 2014 suggest [TS]

  that they really did take a huge chunk of non iphone customers they're a bunch [TS]

  of new customers apple and uh those customers [TS]

  Apple has fantastic retention numbers people buy an iphone by another iphone [TS]

  that suggests that the iphones growth is going to continue our and so I think [TS]

  that this year apple announced announced at stock analyst a lot of things that [TS]

  only in trouble arm but i think it's gonna be down this year because the [TS]

  year-over-year comparison be tough but actually I think that they're in a lot [TS]

  better shape than people think in that 2017 is going to be is going to be a [TS]

  much better year [TS]

  uh for them and I feel like they go through this on a regular cyclical basis [TS]

  because the last downturn was around sometimes in calendar 2013 and it's like [TS]

  a year after Steve Jobs died and everybody was banging the drum on you [TS]

  know they're doomed without steve jobs and Samsung was putting in record [TS]

  numbers and there was this narrative that the a no and there was there wasn't [TS]

  even a little bit of truth to it which is that there was clearly consumer [TS]

  demand for big phones and apples biggest phone was four inches which wasn't big [TS]

  so that was actually a true part of it i mean that even came out in the lawsuit [TS]

  where there was an email i think from phil schiller that was again entered [TS]

  into evidence but it said you know people want big phones we don't have pic [TS]

  phones right now and this narrative was that you know apples time at the top is [TS]

  over and Samsung's eating their lunch and the stock was really depressed and [TS]

  then all of a sudden you know the iphone 6 comes out and it's huge hit and it's [TS]

  like Oh apples back but it's really you know it was all very predictable it was [TS]

  like you know they just sort of got there there the long time frame that [TS]

  they have to you know the downside of wow they sell 75 million phones in the [TS]

  first quarter when they're did that they've been made available [TS]

  is that the way that you can do that is by having the pipeline be like 18 months [TS]

  long and they got caught behind that the pipeline on when they could come out [TS]

  with a close to five inch phone and over 5 inch phone was behind that the market [TS]

  move faster donated and there was a naught but then the rumors came out and [TS]

  therefore there was also this clearly a lot of a lot of casual people-not people [TS]

  like us you know go and check out macrumors com every day and see that [TS]

  stuff like that but just normal people were like I hear apples coming out with [TS]

  a big phone i'm going to wait [TS]

  yeah with the existing the thing the thing that where it's different now i [TS]

  think those are all spot-on and and that year 2014 was down a bit [TS]

  our relatives to you but they the Apple was [TS]

  growing right there there the difference now is I it is and out objective fact [TS]

  that iphone sales are flat and right next quarter we're going to go down so i [TS]

  think that the the narrative back then i think was fueled by this a misguided [TS]

  understanding of why Apple maintain is able to maintain those margins and [TS]

  profits and I think people are are a little smarter about that now [TS]

  I mean that's where I really got you know got my start uh you know I wrote a [TS]

  big thing saying like why disruptions advocates got Apple Apple so wrong and [TS]

  actually one of my earliest pieces was predicting that Samsung was in for a big [TS]

  fall arm and I mean button relatively speaking for people who understood Apple [TS]

  work there's a little bit of shooting fish in a barrel right the end and the [TS]

  numbers were on our side Apple was still growing the biggest always is [TS]

  objectively speaking the numbers are going down but you can't ignore the fact [TS]

  that like last year was so unbelievably extraordinary I mean the numbers were [TS]

  just off the charts and uh and it on one hand it's gonna always be hard to [TS]

  compare to other numbers but if you take out that one year this year is still [TS]

  better than would be expected and i think that's that key point is is being [TS]

  missed arm and so yeah so like what you're saying let's just say we take out [TS]

  the 2015 numbers we take them out and we leave in twenty twelve thirteen fourteen [TS]

  fifteen a blank and we go and we show the first of $MONTH 2016 and then we say [TS]

  now you draw an imaginary line for where you think 2015 went based on what you [TS]

  saw at the end of $MONTH 2014 and where we are now and you probably just draw [TS]

  like this night it looks like a real nice slope [TS]

  yeah I have the exact numbers actually if you do if you forecast linearly from [TS]

  2000-2014 then 2015 you would have expected to sell 200 million if you do [TS]

  logistic regression like an S curve which is actually the data would suggest [TS]

  arm then you would expect 278 million Apple actually sold 230 million [TS]

  so they they exceeded what you would have forecast by 30 to 50 million [TS]

  iphones which would like a really strong better like an entire really gets more [TS]

  iphones that's more iphones they sold in 2010 right and like more than they sold [TS]

  in any quarter other than the holiday quarter right that was it wasn't it was [TS]

  insane and and in think they just added a quarter to their calendar [TS]

  yeah in within a single quarter and so if you do that same sort of thing and [TS]

  you've rejected again you only had 8 2014 said I what do you thinks gonna be [TS]

  2016 again if you do a linear uh it which it be 230 million if you do a [TS]

  winner regression arm it would be a good sorry logistic regression would be a 184 [TS]

  million because cells were it was like they were peeking in and they were [TS]

  flattening out in 2014 [TS]

  apple is on pace to sell about 230 million so either they're right on track [TS]

  with growth if youse win here or they're vastly exceeding it if you think that [TS]

  growth had peaked in $MONTH 2014 [TS]

  regardless the book the factories like there's there's actually not much [TS]

  evidence that the only way this story makes senses of Apple got a bunch of new [TS]

  customers like in $MONTH 2015 in a one-time event and it's like well is [TS]

  there any explanation for that to happen there [TS]

  in fact I'm glad you asked there is they got five big screen iphones and 4g [TS]

  really carolina in China's the other real big factor [TS]

  yeah yeah and China the the basic economy I mean I know it's it's not [TS]

  having a good time right now but in the grand scheme of things so it's just [TS]

  doing well we had the grand scheme of things I mean there's there's a hundreds [TS]

  of millions of people entering the middle class i mean like the scale of [TS]

  China's is-is-is heart is hard to comprehend its but it's it's it's very [TS]

  large Jimmy actually this is a point is a spectrum cook now ever always causes [TS]

  Mackenzie study about about the number of middle-class people coming in China [TS]

  which he never quoted until until I uh earnings college couple quarters ago and [TS]

  i happen to have included a daily update before them so I don't think he read it [TS]

  but I like to think that someone found the link and then and then for its been [TS]

  an everythin everything scholar since ok it's like it it's a relatively obscure [TS]

  study are [TS]

  but that's like that's i put myself to bed at night so here's an iphone related [TS]

  thing and I wanted to do I knew I wanted to shoot past you and see what you have [TS]

  to say a reader let me try to paraphrase it is let's do that the a let's let's [TS]

  accept that the rumors about next month's new iphone are true that there's [TS]

  a new 4 inch model that supposedly called the 5se it doesn't really make a [TS]

  lot of sense to me but that [TS]

  let's analyze a lot of apples beings don't yeah and it's four inches and it [TS]

  has the specs more or less of an iphone 6 meaning it has an a that way what are [TS]

  we up to that six s8 yeah [TS]

  success has an a nine processor so that's the state-of-the-art it has so [TS]

  what it has is an a8 processor the current 5s the 4-inch phone that you [TS]

  could go in and buy today has as a seven la for 64-bit a7 so it goes to an a8 [TS]

  processor and has a camera roughly equivalent to the iphone 6 tomorrow is [TS]

  it like a four inch version of the iphone 6 and it'll probably sell for out [TS]

  you know same price . hundred dollars less so the question from the reader is [TS]

  have they back themselves into a corner and they have to use this year old a8 [TS]

  processor and camera specs because they have to hit this hundred dollar less [TS]

  than the iphone 6 price slot or is this was this part of the again they painted [TS]

  themselves in the corner or have they deliberately chosen to set up that [TS]

  corner because that's what they wanted all uh i mean i think that there's the [TS]

  idea of of having the better specs and the more expensive phone i think you [TS]

  mean the readers asking why don't they make a a right price 650 dollar 5-inch [TS]

  or foreign phone right i think that that what's underlying the the [TS]

  question did the the because they've always price by size right sort of thing [TS]

  yeah and I thought that it speaks to people's that there's some number of [TS]

  people out there who really still want 24 inch foam but they also want but the [TS]

  top-of-the-line specs [TS]

  yeah there's probably an aspect to that I mean Apple Apple has always gone for [TS]

  the sort of like easy to explain pricing you know like iPods were you know bar [TS]

  even iphones bye-bye memory right like which is it right is very easy to [TS]

  explain and very profitable and doesn't make a lot of sense given it doesn't [TS]

  make it easy to read all but it makes a ton of sex makes it kind of sentence [TS]

  respective because right but it doesn't make sense that it's being priced a [TS]

  monument fairly is not quite the right word but but in it commensurate with the [TS]

  price of the component right whether this is something people always get [TS]

  tripped up on right I don't know prices what the market will bear it has nothing [TS]

  to do with what goes into you know what was in the product i think that's I [TS]

  think that's probably uh yes I think you can look at that Apple's in a corner in [TS]

  that they given the way they do their pricing arm it should be us and that [TS]

  sort of thing uh you know that said arm but i think it's fair use it if it's a [TS]

  fair thing to say but I think it also fits their strategy i mean yeah i don't [TS]

  know that they found themselves here accidentally though and that they're [TS]

  like who you know like they're like that the analogy of painting yourself in a [TS]

  corner is that you turn around you realize oh I did not leave myself a way [TS]

  out here and you didn't think about it when you got started I think they knew [TS]

  exactly what they were doing and they know that yes that this means that [TS]

  anybody who wants a 4-inch phone with top-of-the-line specs does not get that [TS]

  but I don't what were they watching it in the spring that's kind of weird was [TS]

  just not ready or I'll wait here I'll tell you what I'll tell you what I'll do [TS]

  one thing I think is interesting i think that Apple did have the strategy to our [TS]

  little bit more they did the 5c arm the 5c was cheaper to produce than the five [TS]

  was that was that was I don't think there's any question that was important [TS]

  part of it and i think i suspect appleone [TS]

  to keep the 5c around longer than they did yeah but I think what Apple learned [TS]

  from that is that it didn't get it screamed that this is not this is a [TS]

  cheap iPhone right [TS]

  it was obviously a cheap iPhone you can get whereas if you bought a 24 [TS]

  fifty-dollar iphone the lowest one has available [TS]

  no one knew if that was what you bought it because the cheap i-44 use just your [TS]

  expensive iPhone that was two years older when you're whatever right but he [TS]

  was still an iphone 5c was never an iphone in the way that every other [TS]

  iphone has been an iphone it was never the flagship and so you had no you go [TS]

  ahead and so I think Apple wants to the AI think that there's things to lend [TS]

  itself to the 5c strategy was cheaper to produce are the only in the they're [TS]

  using components that out there that they've all left the learning curve [TS]

  they're producing them super cheaply [TS]

  I think they want that for an operational perspective they want to go [TS]

  lower market I think they would like to have like a $350 phone for like India [TS]

  for example arm but they'd but they've learned they need to retain the this is [TS]

  an iphone sensibility I think they're trying to figure that out I suspect [TS]

  that's that goes into the the 5sd they're trying to find the right balance [TS]

  where how can we get all the benefits of building a phone from scratch to be [TS]

  cheaper as opposed to just using inexpensive opponent and cellular [TS]

  forever but still maintain the this is the iphone sort of aura i think that the [TS]

  timing is exactly on plan and I think it makes a ton of sense and I think it's [TS]

  because at the low end at the high end these phones very consistent ever since [TS]

  they moved to releasing them in September instead of late June early [TS]

  July they have a almost clockwork 12-month cycle they like ever since they [TS]

  moved in September it's the exact same week of sep tember that they have the [TS]

  event somewhere around September tenth and then they come out 11 days later [TS]

  like the 21st or something like that which within a week every single year [TS]

  it's 12 months you have a 12-month clock ticking on top of the line the bottom of [TS]

  the line does not have a 12-month cycle right now the 5s has been there for 18 [TS]

  months [TS]

  or it's been out more than that everyone's well that got its been at the [TS]

  spot where it's at for all got it got it okay right [TS]

  uh no six months you because it was the 5c the 5c was sold into last step number [TS]

  III just hand nobody your holds don't know that I think I think I I don't know [TS]

  anyway my point is that I think that this new phone that are coming out with [TS]

  a march they expected be there for at least 18 months it will be there for a [TS]

  long time or agree I agree no I that's exactly trying to say i think they want [TS]

  to go below the 450 price point yeah i think that the 5c was supposed to do [TS]

  that but they it was a flop and so this is the second attempt at it i'm curious [TS]

  still curious very i'm really curious about this event next month i'm more [TS]

  more interested in it than any event it in the last year i think because i have [TS]

  no idea how they're gonna sell this stuff because to me it's the rumors of [TS]

  stuff that could easily be released by press release you know it's there's it [TS]

  here here's a key no camera quality you've seen before in performance [TS]

  quality that you've seen before in a size that you've seen before and I think [TS]

  it's an important part of the product lineup to have it there and I know that [TS]

  part of the reason that they're doing this is it is a nicer phone at four [TS]

  inches than the current 5s and it fits their overall strategy because now this [TS]

  one will work with Apple pay and the 5s that doesn't have touch ID but it does [TS]

  not support apple pay so now they've got an entire lineup of phones that supports [TS]

  Apple pay and you know and i think it can be on the market for a while and [TS]

  they don't have to distract from last september's hey here's the brand-new [TS]

  success and success plus and we have to take five minutes and tell you about [TS]

  this thing that we're not even that excited about and they don't have to do [TS]

  it again this sep tember when they have this iphone 7 which you know knows what [TS]

  it's going to do know that the selling point will be but they don't have to [TS]

  mention it all they have to do it's the only time it will get mentioned is at [TS]

  the very end when they talk about pricing and i'll say this the seven plus [TS]

  starts at this price the seven starts a hundred dollars less at this price and a [TS]

  hundred dollars less here's the you know we still have the [TS]

  a 5s a year six will be at will be fascinating to see is will the iphone 6 [TS]

  still exists next remember right yeah that would be 76 s and 5 SC right Bob I [TS]

  i think i do think that's where they want to go like right there might be [TS]

  rather than they would rather have the low in phone be built to be a low-end [TS]

  phone because there's likely if you build it from scratch you eat you [TS]

  thinking using technologies but i bet you can produce a cheaper they can and [TS]

  they can build it to be a phone that's meant to go even further market and i [TS]

  would be surprised of your waiter then you have the 7 a-7 the arm and then a [TS]

  new like a 6s yeah and then and you still have the 5se I really think they [TS]

  want to go blow that 42 price . arm this have to it just needs to be an iphone [TS]

  yeah and I kind of feel like they they you know and again everything gets old [TS]

  and slow at some point but I kind of feel like a with a 64-bit CPU and the [TS]

  NFC for touch ID are in for Apple Apple pay with touch ID that it's a camera [TS]

  that that that could remain relevant as the as the price . slowly dips over the [TS]

  next 18 months to 24 months it will still be a credible phone [TS]

  yep totally agree anything else you see that while we were recording they came [TS]

  out with the twitter has a new feature that was rumored that they're going to [TS]

  let you have a setting that you can flip that will show you [TS]

  tweets that they think are relevant to you at the top of your timeline and yeah [TS]

  I i tried to get i have got the setting on my account yet follow the [TS]

  International a jack jack streets is just can't get angry friend just keep [TS]

  refresh that it's like just refreshing until you get the setting are that's why [TS]

  the yeah I mean we'll see [TS]

  I mean it'sit's opting for now I think it's going to be isn't be it opted out [TS]

  after a few weeks and the contesting arm [TS]

  I like while you were away personally I i wanna go gave up on reading my tweets [TS]

  oh yeah me too and I think people will read other tweets you probably use [TS]

  third-party clients anyways trailer treats in the in the regular quiet is a [TS]

  hopeless cause it doesn't save it spot arm so yeah I mean again I think I think [TS]

  I i think it's fine and they would have been sorely needed seven years ago arm i [TS]

  think they need to be careful about losing what they have now are everything [TS]

  it's again I like comparing I like the newspaper comparison again because [TS]

  newspaper news is more widespread and popular and and value in work valuable [TS]

  than it has ever been and Twitter like we were there is we talk about twitter [TS]

  with the amount of verbiage spent on Twitter relative to its importance in [TS]

  like the from a business perspective or other source of his way out of whack but [TS]

  it's so it I love it I know you love it and it's so much part of fabric of [TS]

  everything over particular politics and sports i'm a huge NBA fan and NBA [TS]

  twitter is amazing again is all it's really the best of like them the the [TS]

  best possible manifestation which we could be but again it's almost hardy and [TS]

  you fail to follow you giggle all things in order arm but did man how do you like [TS]

  just how to make how to make money off that I don't know technically the face [TS]

  of figured out that Ben Thompson thank you for your time [TS]

  I'm blown away I don't know about you I've I mean you're just for people who [TS]

  don't know we're recording from Philadelphia it and taipei I know so [TS]

  it's it it's 1230 noon here and and we're talking about in our lives we had [TS]

  to find jobs by reading but with 33 line tiny bits of text in the back of [TS]

  newspaper right it is what like 130 km LA and this skype call has had zero [TS]

  latency it's unbelievable and just even if it fell apart now I get to stop the [TS]

  recording we could have to just have the show but I don't have to knock on wood [TS]

  but [TS]

  I'm actually kind of blown away but that living in the future aspect of the [TS]

  recording of this episode of the show people can find your stuff at the [TS]

  excellent start a curry . com [TS]

  you can also probably just google ben thompson and it's gonna take you right [TS]

  there [TS]

  yeah and your twitter account and Thompson captain Thompson at ben [TS]

  thompson and and podcast exponent exponent . mmm yeah if you like better [TS]

  sound Ben's voice if you go to exponent FM is pretty good podcast right there [TS]

  thank you for your time and thank you for your insight [TS]

  that's always a pleasure if you do you have IDs with diarrhea talk to your [TS]

  doctor about new xifaxan [TS]