The Talk Show

87: ‘Free Alcoholic Beverages’, With Ben Thompson

 

  so anyway did you have you ever noticed ben thompson joining me this week ended [TS]

  up on a talk show evidence of some websites where it like the username [TS]

  password don't get auto filled yeah I think usually the websites while they [TS]

  mislabeled the field or something [TS]

  yeah and it's not like that thing where we're certain financial sites have I can [TS]

  opt-out thing it's like a site where there's nothing really super [TS]

  confidential about it it should work just doesn't yeah well I am still [TS]

  scarred from the whole like they've had autocomplete for just like addresses [TS]

  like when you're buying something and I swear those never worked for like the [TS]

  first three years and maybe they work today but I i will never know that [TS]

  refused to use them are you don't use the autumn still have either every field [TS]

  which then really do they even worse in noise when they have the field in the [TS]

  wrong order in your tabs only landed on the bottom of aids the credit card thing [TS]

  works perfectly for me i i came over the last time that the credit card auto [TS]

  filled didn't work but the password thing drives me nuts and I sometimes I [TS]

  think it's because it's like I've already saved a password for WWW dot [TS]

  example.com but right now I'm on stored at example.com and so it doesn't see it [TS]

  is the same website and doesn't fill attend I don't even know and other times [TS]

  I think it's like you said that they don't have the password field correctly [TS]

  labeled as a password [TS]

  yeah I die I have used I mean I've used one password for a long time but the [TS]

  funny the funny thing is actually rarely use it cause I have this you know this [TS]

  super convoluted system for for passwords that involves like a a a seat [TS]

  or random stirring shifting your fingers like to think they'll run the keyboard [TS]

  explain in detail for Christmas I actually don't mind I feel pretty I mean [TS]

  cynicism that accent I can say anything else does that lasted eighty pni Casey [TS]

  soviet know that challenging challenging tech listeners to do anything is not a [TS]

  good idea [TS]

  but it is quite convoluted it takes it would take me like 10 minutes to explain [TS]

  it which is what we decide that it's it's robust pretty good actually I i [TS]

  switch to this win win the iPhone first came out [TS]

  you couldn't use like one pass or anything like that I needed I wanted to [TS]

  have complex passwords and different passwords every site but still be able [TS]

  to somehow memorize them all and so it's been pretty good mostly thing is when [TS]

  like a site has a breakdown or password is stolen it reset it like a backup [TS]

  system for sites that have been problems once it gets it gets messy pretty [TS]

  quickly gets me is that I'm more annoyed now when I run to his site then I was [TS]

  back in the days when no passwords yeah because it wasn't an annoyance before [TS]

  right I think it's probably like when they invented modern plumbing and people [TS]

  who grew up always having to go to an outhouse every time they wanted to go [TS]

  and then obviously in most places had indoor plumbing but every once in a [TS]

  while you get to a place it was worse I'm sure that that was worse than when [TS]

  they were child children and had to go anyhow everything everything is relative [TS]

  right thank you once the bar is raised can never go back [TS]

  yeah I think there's there's probably gonna make some sort of there's a funny [TS]

  tweet on Twitter that about sums of make a podcast cut-up of everyone think I [TS]

  swear and system City joke to be made there he said that I remember the last [TS]

  time I saw the show there was a time you think you actually did get busted so you [TS]

  think it was your it was here a precise date later gloria talk with other [TS]

  podcast like yeah so actually I met the guy from broadcast it down the shit hit [TS]

  the fan maybe that's funny because you don't seem to you seem like a profane [TS]

  exact same thing you just talked about when there's one pastor that doesn't [TS]

  work it stands out more [TS]

  whereas you know there's just a whole string of expletives they can run into [TS]

  each other at some point but just 11 finally place one really really jumps [TS]

  out that the well-placed actually takes get site so I guess there's not much [TS]

  going on except that we're in it seems like everybody has collectively sort of [TS]

  finished digest in the BBC and Google yeah and a couple of good pieces this [TS]

  week you had a good piece of me try this strategic every three seconds its arm [TS]

  protector E does it stack up and I did switch it up so it's my fault and now no [TS]

  one knows but you have a good piece on samsung said the other a little tidbit [TS]

  and who knows you know 11 quarter is is a datapoint not necessarily a trend but [TS]

  Samsung had a pretty bad quarter [TS]

  either so it it was soft [TS]

  i think is the word that they use this is this is not by any means out of the [TS]

  blue let's talk about them first I think in broad strokes what it seems like [TS]

  we're seeing is that Samsung had for a while [TS]

  occupied a certain middle-ground floating you know making some money on a [TS]

  lot of high quality of lower-end smartphones [TS]

  and a decent sized chunk of higher-end smartphones but that there were seeing [TS]

  signs that they're getting pinched on both sides that Apple still dominates [TS]

  the high end and as you know has the throughout the whole euro smartphones in [TS]

  terms of profit and revenue and on the low end they're running into various [TS]

  competitors Ryan and China in particular with how do you how do you say it [TS]

  Xiaomi Xiaomi how do you spell that [TS]

  Xiao which is the the is actually a really Chinese character in it so use [TS]

  pinyin to to write in English so but that actually works it works well and [TS]

  it's it's it's a company that very interesting to me you know far more [TS]

  about them than I do it's actually one of the main reasons [TS]

  show this week and if I don't know a lot about him I can't help but think that [TS]

  there's an awful lot of listeners of the show who don't and maybe even haven't [TS]

  heard of them before but I think I think they should be on everybody's radar [TS]

  especially when it comes to Samsung even though I think for the last year or so [TS]

  there's been a lot of stuff in the press and in investor world that sort of has [TS]

  them as somebody who Apple should be looking out for but I think I think it's [TS]

  actually I think you've made this point pretty well that it seems well there any [TS]

  I think the the number one thing about show me in particular is is you have to [TS]

  really there is this breathless like feature in Bloomberg like shiny week you [TS]

  know about this big this big thing like you have to clearly delineate between [TS]

  China and the rest of the world and in china shop deserves all the hype like [TS]

  they are they're killing it they are a Chinese company they are Chinese correct [TS]

  the and and just in general and this goes for a lot of the chinese companies [TS]

  in general like China really is its own [TS]

  completely separate world we're very widdle applies to what happens the rest [TS]

  of the world particularly the west and vice versa and a lot that's because of [TS]

  the Great Firewall part of his because of you just cultural differences and [TS]

  partly because it's such a huge market it's like i mean us' us' companies get [TS]

  criticized for being you know to us' focus but why wouldn't they be it's you [TS]

  know it's 300 million of the richest consumers in the world like it makes [TS]

  sense to start out there [TS]

  same thing for Chinese companies your city of a billion customers a very large [TS]

  you know an absolute number of which are very rich and a good number which are [TS]

  getting richer so why not focus there and and so that's just in time to watch [TS]

  a movie about china is really important kind of like draw that too I think so [TS]

  he's not much of a threat outside China but in China there are there big deal in [TS]

  in in China threat to Apple as well and that's why if the distinction right and [TS]

  China is big enough that even if they're a Chinese only company it's big enough [TS]

  to matter to me I mean Apple china's gonna be Apple's biggest market in like [TS]

  five years or something like so it it matters just to give you an idea of what [TS]

  a massive market it is like in so it doesn't matter even if even if show me [TS]

  only threaten Samsung in China are only through an apple in China because China [TS]

  such a significant market for both companies that means the company's as a [TS]

  whole are threatened [TS]

  and part of it too is this is where being based on Android can work in their [TS]

  favor is if they were running their own proprietary platform it might be a [TS]

  problem that they were strongly in China right right like maybe sort of like what [TS]

  what blackberry was like back when blackberry had a huge market share in [TS]

  the us- and when was sort of non-existent elsewhere this is now is it [TS]

  going back [TS]

  free iPhone this is like early 2000 when blackberry was this abnormality it [TS]

  worked for them because they didn't need software it wasn't really about apps yet [TS]

  it was just about communicating and the people in the USA had BlackBerrys were [TS]

  for the most part communicating with other people have blackberry so it was [TS]

  ok whereas now where you need an app ecosystem right you know [TS]

  Xiaomi can can capitalize on that even if they're only really strong in China [TS]

  because Android is Android will ever actually funny because that's the other [TS]

  part where China is just a different world right we like I as a rule I think [TS]

  we talked about this this last time is you know you you have to be one of the [TS]

  two you if you wanted to buy in China that's the big exception right because [TS]

  most of phones in China are on ASPD the open-source Android and there's a whole [TS]

  plethora of services that filled in there like there's UCWeb which is the [TS]

  biggest browser just bought by Alibaba there is a whole bunch of apps stores a [TS]

  few which they like there's been some competitions are emerging as the key [TS]

  ones and so there's almost like there is a whole separate legal system of [TS]

  services that most of the phones their use and it actually in in in China [TS]

  Chinese developers are used to this writer is actually services that help [TS]

  you get your app on all the different stores you can be everywhere and it's [TS]

  funny like if that if that sort of whole ecosystem were in the west that would it [TS]

  would actually totally transformed the market here because it would really weak [TS]

  and the the kind of the importance that the Play Store does have in kind of [TS]

  making giving Google full control of that if that makes sense so it's i mean [TS]

  everything there is this really is really so different and there's lots of [TS]

  things that are interesting for for Western companies I mean schools and [TS]

  really not important at Alder they're not important because they're blocked as [TS]

  for search but they're also not important because they don't really [TS]

  control and right there and the only western company actually that really [TS]

  matters is apple and that's because they sell hardware so do you think that's [TS]

  already having an effect on Samsung's numbers over yet what do you think it's [TS]

  more it's already partly China but is it is it only china is it is a worldwide I [TS]

  think I think for sure so wud u looted before I think Samsung has as a [TS]

  prominent both ends on the high end they I think they they they got a lot of [TS]

  high-end customers I think for two specific reasons again this was more [TS]

  conjecture previously been now that is actually happening I think we can see a [TS]

  lot more certainty someone was the iPhone has always been relatively [TS]

  limited comes to carrier distribution you know they were they were stuck at [TS]

  like two hundred and twenty four like two or three years and even before then [TS]

  there was even lower and and that left a good five hundred carriers around the [TS]

  world where there was no iPhone and resuming her welcher carrier and in [TS]

  richer countries people tend to be more loyal to their carriers in you wanted a [TS]

  high-end phone whether there was no iPhone choice Samsung or HTC or whatever [TS]

  those and Samsung has always been you know a very good competitor you know [TS]

  whatever you think about their design is in his third they're very well-run [TS]

  company they're very competitive they have great marketing they pull although [TS]

  all the lovers and if there were no iPhone you know they they would continue [TS]

  I think to do very well at the high end in a sec probably doing very well but [TS]

  now the iPhone is really started to again [TS]

  expand its carriers in part that is the big ones which interview DoCoMo in Japan [TS]

  Japan and China Mobile and China but also lots of little ones like I'm here [TS]

  in I'm back in the states I'm in Madison just for the summer and a big carriers [TS]

  USS cellular right is the fifth largest in USA but still lots more the other [TS]

  ones they've never had the iPhone now they do and there's lots of these little [TS]

  ones that any one of them by themselves doesn't mean much but when you're adding [TS]

  like 50 of them like Apple has that that just increases Samsung's competition [TS]

  where Putin didn't have any competition there it's built filling out the long [TS]

  tail of carriers right exactly exactly and Samsung his own net long tail exams [TS]

  Samsung's big advantage still remains their their relation to carriers in all [TS]

  their own mental connection they deliver exact with carries one what they need [TS]

  and really they've kind of stepped into the Nokia role which that used to be [TS]

  nokianokia had all those except for except for the US-north he had relations [TS]

  with every carrier they they do everything they needed and that gave [TS]

  them a that's really important in the mall business and Samsung has inherited [TS]

  that they still have that advantage of me the iPhone so unique one can be [TS]

  carriers and that sort of thing was it was the first phone that people were [TS]

  people value the phone more than they value their relationship with their [TS]

  carrier and that really upset the apple cart and it is less in Samsung's [TS]

  advantage in the carriers were there compete directly with with the iPhone [TS]

  yeah I think like go back you know free smartphone you know when you go in and [TS]

  you know big ones I remember at least here in the states were always Nokia and [TS]

  Ericsson and eventually Sony Ericsson but they were seemed to me like somebody [TS]

  who never was really into cell phones before that I mean I'd have one just for [TS]

  the sake of making calls and truly rudimentary texting but it just seemed [TS]

  to mean that those were the two brands and you go in but it never really seemed [TS]

  to matter too much you know is it was far far more about choosing between [TS]

  you know Verizon and singular where or who ever you know whatever the names of [TS]

  the various carriers were in the states that it was really mostly about which [TS]

  carriers gonna go into yep and even even now I mean will be the iPhone so so [TS]

  unique is the first phone that people really willing to switch carriers for [TS]

  and that gave out below all the negotiating leverage with with carriers [TS]

  from that from that point on [TS]

  but even then there were there is still a woman's number of people who would do [TS]

  that [TS]

  like you know there were still people who were you stay with rising no matter [TS]

  what and and so it's it's been that dynamic has has helped Samsung and [TS]

  continues to help them but I as outbox bands that kinda again pics off you know [TS]

  just a lot of these while the one tells aqueous yeah and you made the point that [TS]

  one of the things to understand the dynamics of this is that for practical [TS]

  purposes no it's not really a hundred percent of course nothing ever is but [TS]

  practically speaking at best thing of it is everybody is going to own a [TS]

  smartphone right which is there's there's very few things in the world [TS]

  that are like that especially in tech a lot of the things that are like that are [TS]

  things like I don't like washing machines are ya ya TV a TV is a good ago [TS]

  TVs but this thing though TV's even will ultimately have less penetration than 10 [TS]

  smartphone which is which is pretty amazing right because a lot of its gonna [TS]

  end up I think maybe a little bit more towards one TV per household and one [TS]

  cell phone per person [TS]

  rain and even if you go to multiple tvs per household it still is probably going [TS]

  to trend not towards one per person but but less than one per person maybe you [TS]

  have one in the master bedroom [TS]

  and one in living room but tablets are clearly eating into that you know where [TS]

  a lot of you know personal consumption of video is clearly going towards [TS]

  tablets and smartphones you know like like if you know the average number of [TS]

  TVs in a house I'm sure has if anything it might be going down because if you [TS]

  were going to have one like for your teenager teenager have a TV in their [TS]

  room that might be a PC and a tablet now right you know PC for the games and [TS]

  tablet for watching video and TV we're just to get around a little bit more on [TS]

  one thing that's actually really interesting but the Samsung results I [TS]

  will get back to the high low and stuff but is they talked about the fact that [TS]

  they they felt their tablet sales have been hurt by their big phones their [TS]

  phablets which which building on this point I think there is there like [TS]

  injection think rightly so that a lot of tablets are used primarily for your TV [TS]

  viewing basically but actually worldwide you know not the you s market where the [TS]

  disproportionate share but if you look worldwide tablet and and so many people [TS]

  had so many observations from CES this year that there are a lot of the no-name [TS]

  brand Android tablets that clearly designed knowing that they're just gonna [TS]

  be used for consuming video in in the thing about video video video and Asia [TS]

  is is a lot different than here in that basically everything is available [TS]

  very easily like I mean needs yes there's things like Hulu Netflix here [TS]

  but there's always kind of a bit of a challenge of seeing like whatever is up [TS]

  next [TS]

  like whatever she hot show is going on right now they're mostly Korean shows [TS]

  like these soap operas or like once it's aired it is available for streaming [TS]

  within like an hour if if not faster and it says it's interesting because I don't [TS]

  think it's actually there's not really cracked it's it's not really frowned [TS]

  upon it's not really sees it as an issue is it legally it's it's not like you're [TS]

  saying it's not legal but the [TS]

  the IP infrastructure there is such that nobody really I'm not sure to be honest [TS]

  I mean I it may be one of those things where it's not only legal black no one [TS]

  actually no one really cares it is it is true that in many countries the IP [TS]

  infrastructure is not there but also or maybe even the IP culture frankly yeah [TS]

  that's a big part of it that's a big part of it as well i think is like just [TS]

  in general there's a difference i mean it's very open right i mean even in [TS]

  phnom in some of the more more you know [TS]

  advances in the world by countries that have had a long history of IP [TS]

  enforcement like Japan or Taiwan a little bit more so I mean all those out [TS]

  there still you can still find comfort bags they're more like in the alleys [TS]

  right it's not high street corner like like in some parts of Asia so it's a [TS]

  little stronger but there's the other they're very publicly available and and [TS]

  to watch them and to watch this show to watch TV like that is very common and I [TS]

  i dont know all the countries in is obviously but in my experience your TV [TS]

  is is just as much a thing there as it is here if not more so [TS]

  and and so the whole idea of them being used primarily for that use rings very [TS]

  very true to me while I and then you were saying that Samsung explicitly said [TS]

  with regard to their poor results are disappointing results and it's not just [TS]

  that they're down there were down was somewhere around 16% less profit than [TS]

  than was expected right and that's the weird thing about reporting results [TS]

  right it's all about expectations and they were they were under their [TS]

  excitation Thunder analyst expectations and buy you a pretty significant amount [TS]

  and so we can even even if we go with the hey come on and let's just make this [TS]

  stuff up at least Samsung's own guidance you know should be a fair measure that [TS]

  most companies you know usually put out guidance that they expect to at least be [TS]

  able to me that I get so genuine [TS]

  it one if it's just you know and Apple has run into this many times over the [TS]

  years where where Apple will will post results that are pretty close to their [TS]

  guidance maybe a little maybe a little down but generally pretty close but if [TS]

  there's way less than what analysts had projected it's it's headlined as a big [TS]

  mess yeah it's weird because they like the worst of the worst thing you can do [TS]

  is miss your own guidance [TS]

  gonna get hammered for that the second worst thing you can do is missing [TS]

  analyst guidance but then there's also if your guidance is lower than what [TS]

  analysts expect to be like him so that's that's when Apple takes hit after [TS]

  earnings it's usually because their guidance for the following quarter is [TS]

  lower than what analysts anticipate it would be where is everything that [TS]

  happened the previous quarter like that's almost always beit din and never [TS]

  missed like meeting for Wii U no recent history their recent results oh yes it's [TS]

  all it's all its own expectations game I know people get frustrated Wall Street [TS]

  but it's it's a lot more it's not as its not as ridiculous as people think I [TS]

  think the main thing with wall street is wall street is it is a stock inherently [TS]

  is all about the future it's all so whatever you've done the past it's only [TS]

  useful in so much as it's an indicator for all happen going forward right it's [TS]

  not a risk bringing apple into it is sort of it's an aside but I think it's [TS]

  interesting because there has been a min this is not something that they actually [TS]

  came out and said is that we're going to try to be a little bit more accurate [TS]

  with our desirable that the couple of maybe it was a year or so maybe a little [TS]

  bit more and that they said look we're going we used to you know give you a [TS]

  lower end of our guidance which is translated means we really low ball the [TS]

  numbers in always put out a number that we knew that we could be there for you [TS]

  know anybody who is trying to accurately gauged you know what to expect from [TS]

  Apple had to pick a number that was higher than that and so you had to [TS]

  analysts had to pick a number that was different from Apple's always higher [TS]

  because Apple you know what about its serious significantly low ball them I [TS]

  think that the change you know and this is one of those it's something that [TS]

  started in the post Steve Jobs era I think it's probably had the intended [TS]

  effect in it seems as though Apple's guidance and Wall Street guidance have [TS]

  become much more largely aligned and whether it's a little bit or a little [TS]

  bit worse it seems like the stock has become a little bit less volatile just [TS]

  when results are are issued no I that's a really good point I think you're [TS]

  probably right that this is probably a quick thing you know jobs probably [TS]

  enjoyed beating expectations you know but by a lot but the reality is that [TS]

  actually introduced more uncertainty jobs as prospective was probably along [TS]

  the lines of screw those guys screw job just like the surprise right we we did [TS]

  murder results right it was another chance of the reveal where but I think [TS]

  it was bad for Apple you're exactly right because analysts had to make had [TS]

  to pick something up and what I just said about about the current results no [TS]

  longer being interesting is because of this change is because they they are [TS]

  almost exactly right every time and so now I was focused on there they're going [TS]

  forward estimates and I think that I think wonder jobs with the lowball [TS]

  numbers it was like screw up let them figure it out [TS]

  whereas the cook idea is let's help these guys out because they're wrong [TS]

  they're always wrong and hurt because you know we don't we keep somewhat close [TS]

  to invest so let's yeah and them being wrong [TS]

  hurts us so it's in our interests to help these guys and give them guidance [TS]

  that actually is truly guidance yeah I mean this is another thing that just [TS]

  really a test to kind of wait cooks how impressive cooks operation is is [TS]

  how the way that our pool is so exact on their numbers every single time and that [TS]

  that that goes back to the operation cited write operations is it's not [TS]

  sexual making it the predicting its the modeling like knowing what we're gonna [TS]

  sell of white and like Apple forty you ever since they did this change and I [TS]

  think horse did you have a chart that show the comment [TS]

  off they've been white has been in almost almost exactly I think a lot of [TS]

  the optimism for Apple actually is because last quarter they actually did [TS]

  beat themselves right in a way that they hadn't previously and so that so that [TS]

  even Apple was surprised but I mean it's it's kind of uncanny how perfectly [TS]

  almost feel like they can predict the future [TS]

  yeah and sometimes I feel like it's because of changes that they couldn't [TS]

  foresee like not necessarily demand but pricing of components or something like [TS]

  that something may be dropped in you know dropped in price and and help [TS]

  margins and you know they just couldn't foresee that you know right now I think [TS]

  right now if if that's what happens it's usually what it is but I do think it was [TS]

  last quarter like they genuinely beat their numbers and they're like yeah we [TS]

  we we had a really good quarter and I think that's why I like right now there [TS]

  is so much positive sentiment around apple i think is they've kind of the [TS]

  challenge with you know I think Apple's actually mostly gotten past the the kind [TS]

  of big number is not reading or prob like the problem where because they're [TS]

  such a big company now like any percentage increases gonna be small [TS]

  because the the denominator so huge right and conversely any small [TS]

  percentage difference is actually going to be a large number of dollars right [TS]

  right so Apple could miss by half a billion dollars and its wholly shit they [TS]

  missed by half a billion dollars and it's you know it's a couple of course at [TS]

  rape know exactly and that but I think like so 2012 I think late 2012 was like [TS]

  with their their growth rate peaked right that ever since then they have [TS]

  their growth has slowed considerably and I think like that really I think [TS]

  justifiably like really depressed the stock for a for a few years now but [TS]

  that's been work through the system and I guess is the lake with any company [TS]

  that's like changing up like that's just shifting in a different phase there is [TS]

  there is this part where it's like a lot of stock is isn't expected expectations [TS]

  sort of thing like people understanding grappling with your business is your [TS]

  business changes there's going to be upheaval and and I think in so you talk [TS]

  about a company like Intel Microsoft that has to like that has to you know [TS]

  make big changes once the once you get through those changes new kind of [TS]

  shifted expectations and people are now used to something else than you actually [TS]

  do get more breathing room and acts like Apple has kind of cross that that [TS]

  counsel lot of ways people are cool with you know six percent growth 10% growth [TS]

  and whereas before they were punished because they were no longer growing [TS]

  middle 23% and I think that's that's just go back to like there's there's the [TS]

  famous thing like in this what is it in the short term is a is a something [TS]

  machine long-term a weighing machine that he liked over over time over a few [TS]

  years why the stock market actually is very very rational and it does exactly [TS]

  what you expected to and there's no point getting caught up on what happens [TS]

  day-to-day record quarter because it usually doesn't work itself out in a way [TS]

  that makes sense I'm gonna take a break in just a moment but I come back to that [TS]

  because I think it plays into the next wanna talk to you about which is [TS]

  software as differentiation which i think and reason I think it's a good [TS]

  parlays I think it helps explain Samsung's problem which is something you [TS]

  wrote about this week and i also think it's something that might finally be [TS]

  sinking in [TS]

  in Wall Street consists Consensus Estimate of Apple is that tablet Archos [TS]

  tablets you know that the iPad and iPhone do have a a sustainable position [TS]

  because of the differentiation but a butthole that I think about it while I [TS]

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  you want to if you know how to but if you don't you can build a complete [TS]

  website by drag-n-drop the other things Squarespace has that is again I'll use [TS]

  the word differentiation is award-winning 24 7 support they do it [TS]

  through live chat and email and it's located they have support centers in New [TS]

  York City Dublin and Portland Portland is new I think and I think the logic [TS]

  behind that is that's what helps them have twenty-four seven is between Dublin [TS]

  and New York City and Portland Oregon [TS]

  coverage all across time zones they've got plans that started eight bucks a [TS]

  month 8 box and includes a FREE domain name if you sign up for a year [TS]

  responsive design everything looks great from phones and tablets to 30 inches [TS]

  this place and online stores every site comes with an online store so go there [TS]

  go to Squarespace dot com slash Gruber go that way you can use that URL don't [TS]

  know you came from the show and when you sign-up use that code jeje you get 10% [TS]

  off your first purchase and all know that your listener of the talk shows on [TS]

  my thanks to Squarespace alright so tell me about the tell me you tell me about [TS]

  software differentiation as it as an advantage in and the lack thereof is a [TS]

  disadvantage and in mobile I think things will get look at computers I mean [TS]

  like I have if you have a macbook it runs OS 10 if you have any other [TS]

  computer runs it runs Windows and even if you had the exact same hardware if [TS]

  you have a preference for OS 10 you're going to buy the one has lost 10 and and [TS]

  even if I virtually identical hardware if the OS 10 machine costs $1000 and the [TS]

  windows of $100 well turns out there are a lot of people that will pay the extra [TS]

  $200 for that machine and that $20 is pure profit right even if they don't [TS]

  perceive a difference in the heart where exactly it even if you're there and if [TS]

  side-by-side with the screens off you don't see an advantage to the MacBook [TS]

  Air vs the HP you know HP air whenever they call their their even happen even [TS]

  if Apple license doubt their hardware right and it was like literally every [TS]

  single component on this computer is identical trackpad as a stress include [TS]

  but doesn't like people will pay a premium for that I'm sure I'm speaking [TS]

  to the choir here with you know with you and your audience and and button by [TS]

  definition that premium is his profit because like you with Samsung's a big [TS]

  way call these guys are big ISPs a big lake with their they are all going to [TS]

  get the economies of scale that Apple is getting you know so if the parts for [TS]

  this machine costs $750 let's say and the guy who has Windows charges $150 a [TS]

  profit that's not very great [TS]

  meanwhile Apple's charging a thousand that's $20 a profit that's 33 percent [TS]

  that's pretty that's very good and that that difference is solely because that [TS]

  it runs around those ten and it turns out that Apple is the only company that [TS]

  sells always 10 and you can't biosensor put on your computer you have to buy the [TS]

  hardware is to get the software and and that makes the hard work that makes the [TS]

  heart grow valuable and you know I think it's it's it's valuable in a way that [TS]

  generates profit right it's all it's all upside because software is software is [TS]

  pretty [TS]

  I mean it doesn't it's not free to make but to make one additional copy of [TS]

  software is free right if I was ten to make another OS 10 is literally just [TS]

  clicking a button and that's exactly what phones you know if you prefer Iowa [TS]

  esterhaus ecosystem what there's only one way to get iOS and that's to buy [TS]

  hardware from Apple and so even if HTC or Samsung like made in an iPhone or [TS]

  every single component was the same look and feel was the same in the camera was [TS]

  the same and button was the same outlook could still charge a premium because [TS]

  people will pay for iOS yet I was doesn't cost anything and you know so [TS]

  that's that's why Apple dominates profits and that's why I think your [TS]

  point why Apple AAPL is safe in a lot of ways like it leads to less [TS]

  fluctuation year-over-year and less pressure to come out with and this is [TS]

  something that has gotten named in the press [TS]

  year after year to year a new iPhones well geez this is almost just like last [TS]

  year's iPhone but it's a little smarter and the small you know a little faster [TS]

  and the cameras better and I think you see that with Samsung flailing around [TS]

  with a lot of gimmickry in their new phones like went a year and a half ago [TS]

  when they came out with the ones that tried to read your eyes you know hey [TS]

  look up will pause the video for you or will scroll the webpage why you moving [TS]

  your eyes which wasn't you know and by all the reviews I've seen wasn't really [TS]

  a good feature but it they needed some way to to do that to stay above the fray [TS]

  of all the other Android phones that are you know where similar to the previous [TS]

  Samsung phone whereas Apple doesn't really need to worry about gimmicks like [TS]

  that because you know people who want to buy an iPhone are going to buy the new [TS]

  iPhone no matter what right in so then the problem is this is this actually why [TS]

  in the long run you end up not having hardware comfortable to Applewhite why [TS]

  do I mean why doesn't someone you hear this lovely quiet aren't there any [TS]

  laptops as good as MacBooks I mean there there are some Lenovo why would I will [TS]

  always hold up as the one who's who's closest and I would take I would take a [TS]

  ThinkPad if they'd better screen battle remember those machines are are amazing [TS]

  well I've always said that if I couldn't go as a what if scenario you know it's [TS]

  not going to happen but if you had to choose between a ThinkPad running OS 10 [TS]

  or a MacBook Pro running Windows which would you prefer and I i wouldn't even [TS]

  hesitate at rather everything I don't think I would prefer ThinkPad running [TS]

  almost 10 vs MacBook running almost 10 but I was always trying another software [TS]

  acquired taste I get that it's the software that's more important right now [TS]

  that looks at what happens though is so so what say you start out at point zero [TS]

  right and the Apple you have to your Samsung and Apple's a [TS]

  make identical phones and they and one runs Android in the runs runs OS 10 [TS]

  sorry iOS yeah right like like hypothetically speaking let's take [TS]

  Samsung's copying to the logical extreme and and legalities aside let's say that [TS]

  they made a genuine complete clone of the iPhone so so that is perfect exactly [TS]

  the same the problem is and so they're the problem is is obvious because [TS]

  Android is open and there's lots of hardware manufacturers out there [TS]

  someone's gonna come along and make another another Android phone and maybe [TS]

  they copy it to make it the exact same way where are they going to do [TS]

  Samsung so Apple's priced at $600 thousands prices $600 [TS]

  income is gonna priced at $595 and then I won't go by the other one and then see [TS]

  what happens as the respond by lowering the price for the promise as you lower [TS]

  the price now your margins getting compressed and so you start cutting [TS]

  corners so suddenly this place is not quite as good or the button quality is a [TS]

  little work or you know in so what what happens is because you're forced to [TS]

  compete on price the quality actually end up going down along the way because [TS]

  it's like death by a thousand cuts and that's why you saw this in PC's laptops [TS]

  have always been a Windows laptops have mostly always been inferior from a [TS]

  quality perspective it's not it's not be nothing to do with the software Perseids [TS]

  because they're stuck in this game where they have to find margin somewhere right [TS]

  and but then they screw up the software because to try to squeeze little bits of [TS]

  March margin is why they do things like pre installed Norton bug you until you [TS]

  sign up for Norton experience right going to buy a brand new laptop and you [TS]

  open it up benefits running Windows in its from most OM's you're gonna have [TS]

  stuff that's not from Microsoft officially part of windows and it's all [TS]

  annoying and it's there to try to a lot of it is there to try to increase the [TS]

  margins because Norton gives them [TS]

  you know two or three bucks for everybody who has a pre-installed so [TS]

  that's actually that's actually where most OEM make older margin [TS]

  actually most most computers are made at cost and then any profit margin they [TS]

  make us from the crapware and thats wife to get a crap we're free machine you [TS]

  have to pay more and like the thing is like the [TS]

  in Windows you know I i've heard from ickes often work with Windows and they [TS]

  would bitch and moan about how terrible the hardware was but this is all [TS]

  Microsoft's fault right they it's one of those things where it was always to [TS]

  their benefit right through the whole thing where you want to [TS]

  commoditized compliments like the things that are important for your product but [TS]

  that you don't sell you want them to be as cheap as will cost as possible and so [TS]

  it was in Microsoft's great benefit that computers decrease in costs so rapidly [TS]

  there's always competition in driving down prices but the problem is as with [TS]

  anything you take it too far and then you're stuck with your stuck with these [TS]

  terrible machines with creaky hinges and crap world with them and and then that [TS]

  rolls back and now it's being ascribed to Microsoft in the right well Microsoft [TS]

  always as machines and whatever and and it's the same thing with Google that [TS]

  Google's even more ruthless right they don't they want everything to be free [TS]

  everything to not cost anything they want people to be online as much as [TS]

  possible as easily as possible and there are more than happy to watch Samsung HTC [TS]

  and everyone kind of killed themselves here and again Google's quite smart [TS]

  about this because to earlier point because smartphones are going to be [TS]

  everywhere [TS]

  everyone's going to have one like there would there really is no or two like how [TS]

  cheap or crappy a a phone can be because someone is going to buy it [TS]

  there's a tweet from earlier today he was earlier earlier today from [TS]

  mutual friend Benedict Evans I think it's very very well so much summarizes [TS]

  the situation in the long term it is hoped we posit a Wii ends will be able [TS]

  to differentiate on this common platform has been a false promise for thirty [TS]

  years right that and kickin it old school year but I mean this was [TS]

  something like when Apple was in trouble in the nineties that was over and over [TS]

  and over again people would say well what Apple should do is start making [TS]

  Windows machines to differentiate on on design right so Apple would you know how [TS]

  Apple strength isn't Mac OS are getting killed because america so much smaller [TS]

  than windows in everybody's on Windows when Apple's good at is designed so [TS]

  Apple should ME Windows machines and differentiate on design and that's it's [TS]

  actually that's exactly would say that's exactly the Sony PC business right that [TS]

  was there are right and how'd that work out they their bio is now its own [TS]

  companies that I would say Sony gave that as good a run as anybody and they [TS]

  were very nice computers right and and you know innovative in certain ways to [TS]

  like those got small like use the ball small laptops you know right before [TS]

  everyone else with you know with with minimal compromises and it just it's not [TS]

  sustainable on a common platform ya know it's like I think I like the analogy is [TS]

  almost like air travel [TS]

  I'm not sure this works it literally just occurred to me but like everyone [TS]

  like bitches about like oh we want good service on airplanes in late we want [TS]

  more seats were more seating area and stuff like that [TS]

  the promise every single time and airline tries that like continental is [TS]

  going to have better service [TS]

  American Airlines I think we're going to have more more room in our house we [TS]

  advertise based on that and we're going to be able to charge a slightly higher [TS]

  price [TS]

  well guess what everyone kept going Expedia kayak irreverent the lowest [TS]

  number [TS]

  this is very painful to me because two or three years ago [TS]

  Virgin America came to Philadelphia and the most welcome breath of fresh air in [TS]

  the history of PHL international and they are leaving in two months because [TS]

  well it's not you know and they're not going away but it clearly it wasn't a [TS]

  big success for them and they were always more expensive USAir is that [TS]

  carrier that dominate PHL one of their hubs and there there they've got this [TS]

  merger with American and part of the concessions for this merger is they had [TS]

  to give up gates at Washington and one of the new york 1 I'm guessing it [TS]

  probably JFK JFK is bigger [TS]

  that that combined USAir an American have to give up some some number of [TS]

  their gates at those and Virgin decided to take I think I don't they took him to [TS]

  washington to but I know that they took some of their JFK want and they [TS]

  literally don't have enough airplanes so they have to take the airplanes that [TS]

  have been flying to Philly roots and they're gonna be fine JFK route and [TS]

  they're they're like it's like a waiting list it's like trying to get Washington [TS]

  Redskins season tickets or something like there's there's like five year [TS]

  waiting list to get new airplanes from Boeing or something like that they can [TS]

  just order them yeah and I don't think that they were you know pretty sure [TS]

  virgin America's never turned a profit anyway [TS]

  quarter know if I was gonna mention that he just doesn't work because it's one of [TS]

  those things like air air travel is a is a commodity and it's so it's a sort of [TS]

  hold up it is a commodity and its there's an economy of scale like that's [TS]

  the thing is that you've kind of in there that's the magic you've got to get [TS]

  off the ground somehow and get this this of of users to sustain it is different [TS]

  just don't have it that Virgin America just didn't have at least out of Philly [TS]

  you know me I think the whole business thing right because they're the ones [TS]

  that are price insensitive and not an airline's it is actually a ton of people [TS]

  that I know I I myself am kind of people I follow on Twitter and it's been a [TS]

  there's actually there's quite a few people in in intact whatever that as a [TS]

  side thing I'd love to follow the airline industry it's so much better [TS]

  than others I mean I and i actually have gold status on USAir [TS]

  at all ever fly a me every flight i take whether to vacation or whether it's work [TS]

  to go to the west coast it's always USAir and because so many my flights are [TS]

  entirely across the country have somehow gotten the gold status which is good [TS]

  customer service wise I can book tickets now that that I like fun double I can [TS]

  change my tickets and not pay a fee like literally not even pay like it's kind of [TS]

  awesome and if I can book a flight on Virgin America and it costs more I would [TS]

  do it in a heartbeat because it's such a nice experience unfortunately you know [TS]

  you you have a you know when a reputation for valuing quality in the [TS]

  products you buy about that is that is not broadly shared I've been on I've [TS]

  been on flights [TS]

  the last time I flew in for the most part it was all SFO to Philly other [TS]

  sometimes depending on the hours I would I would even take this is what I would [TS]

  do to is i would fly silly to lax LAX to SFO on Virgin rather than a nonstop [TS]

  which I've numerous numerous choices between us iPhone Philly on USAir right [TS]

  rather have the layover in LAX and which ones you're fine for now it makes a [TS]

  difference right [TS]

  wifi everything I mean it's just so much more comfortable that plane doesn't have [TS]

  a funky smell but anyway but yeah there's not enough people like me to get [TS]

  it off the ground is funny videos by soprano airlines but I'm basin is aware [TS]

  awake flying economy class on an Asian airlines like fine like above first [TS]

  class on a typical USA online [TS]

  but it's how I just like to have like Stockholm Syndrome like they're like [TS]

  visiting center-right they always do like the airline in like a million times [TS]

  but I think Steve Steve Kovach didn't want to lose like Singapore Air [TS]

  like marveling at like every seat has like its own television got how bad the [TS]

  economy class on USAir is literally just a bigger see they do give you a meal [TS]

  they do give you a meal that you don't get back there but it's so bad that I [TS]

  mean honestly you're a fool if you hit it I i coming you're just asking to be [TS]

  made sick I mean you get drinks you know it's a bigger seed and you get you get [TS]

  alcohol drugs which ones do not frown upon to too much but I know but you know [TS]

  it's it's it's so much different than international airlines yeah we are we're [TS]

  massively it was funny so we are we afraid so that that's out there were way [TS]

  off though I do think it kind of explained the race to the bottom in on a [TS]

  commodity platforms like Windows and I think that's where Android is heading [TS]

  makes it different though maybe it's the same because of the thing with airline [TS]

  is because it is super heavily regulated rate like you there's a certain late for [TS]

  of service you fly like frontier spirit or you know like the cheap ones are like [TS]

  you can feel reasonably confident that they're going to get you there in one [TS]

  piece right because they all to pass the same FAA regulations they'll have the [TS]

  same maintenance like you know regimes and so because of that like it's not [TS]

  like you're flying in like wow this guy like $3 cheaper but they have a plane [TS]

  crash like everyone's everyone that a certain level and what's happened with [TS]

  smartphones as you're getting actually assume or a similar idea like a few [TS]

  years ago even a couple years ago the difference between a toreador smartphone [TS]

  in a four-door smartphone was was huge [TS]

  now there really isn't that much of a difference at all and by the way that [TS]

  smartphones $900 [TS]

  $150 smartphone and so like the the the the difference between the high and low [TS]

  when is shrinking and what's funny is everyone uses this is they were Apple's [TS]

  doomed but they're only doomed if you ignore the software right all those [TS]

  criticized the first time in this article like I said well over a year ago [TS]

  that Samsung was in trouble because unlike alcohol there is nothing to make [TS]

  a Samsung phone different from a no-name phone and an especially in China where [TS]

  in China like there is their first other things are different China one there's [TS]

  just way more because that's where the manufacturing happens like there's just [TS]

  way more phones there there's way more companies making phones [TS]

  the vast majority of which don't export it all so there's tons and tons and tons [TS]

  of breath of corporate brands in China most of whom I've never heard of much [TS]

  less than one else so one there's just way more competition and then to in [TS]

  China mode for the most is much more sold the phone is separate from the from [TS]

  the plan so you you usually not always I mean and actually the iPhone is pushed [TS]

  more of a subsidy into the system but especially traditionally it's always [TS]

  been very separate where you buy your [TS]

  you by your service from the carrier and you buy your device from device seller [TS]

  like there's different transactions and so that that new orders Samsung's [TS]

  carrier banja doesn't really exist as much there and then you add on top of [TS]

  that Samsung did have more brand in China what you're going to buy it be [TS]

  better to buy a $20 sampling phone then toward our Chinese phone because Samsung [TS]

  was a meaningful brand and that's where you get into that massive spend that [TS]

  Samsung still has on on marketing calling but that just destroyed that [TS]

  like that like show me his show me which I mean really does have one common Apple [TS]

  is like shamas founders are like rock stars right there are jobs [TS]

  and you know in the craig Venter ease of of of China and their phones actually do [TS]

  I've never held my hands I can't speak to build quality but he take a look at [TS]

  them and they do to me to my eyes instantly look better designed than [TS]

  Samsung in and most other brands under the quality the qualities and the I've [TS]

  held both in the world when the woman was was wasn't the most previous one it [TS]

  was a little like I thought it was a little flimsy but it was in there was a [TS]

  fully functional like there's no problem is today you can tell you know hundred [TS]

  bucks cheaper than its sibling but again that's that's improving as well those [TS]

  are way better than what was available the price point [TS]

  previously and and so for Xiaomi and then show me house like you know they [TS]

  have these rock stars and then there's the whole Chinese like social network [TS]

  you know what you talked about last time we chatted and and all these sort of [TS]

  things where they where they actually sell they sell complete the online so [TS]

  they don't have to pay any overhead two carriers they pay nothing for marketing [TS]

  they just basically sell everything through their brand in through the [TS]

  website and so they can keep their costs super low and then their whole business [TS]

  model is the basal cell at cost right they say they're gonna make it up by [TS]

  selling by selling services [TS]

  App Store and all that sort of stuff and and Samsung is just getting walloped [TS]

  like Samsung can't compete with that and that's why Apple is more threatened in [TS]

  China by some as well because she'll me isn't just sheep they're they're cheap [TS]

  and they're they're a brand in their wake their ass statement like they're [TS]

  saying something by clearing Xiaomi phone and that is also important China [TS]

  always like China yes the software is important but it's not it's actually I [TS]

  think it's Wes its west of a differentiator in in China especially [TS]

  because there's always a lot of crazy stuff you do the Android right that that [TS]

  the China the Chinese value and worth the walk down actually works against [TS]

  them lot of ways it is actually area where the keyboards are gonna help [TS]

  that's why I there's lots of alternate Chinese keyboards [TS]

  that I I know people that's been a hold up for not want to go with us but even [TS]

  beyond that there's tons of stuff like this the whole idea of skinning staff [TS]

  and having all these cutesy things in all this all this stuff on your phone [TS]

  that we in the West Hills very very weird like that it's just different [TS]

  there you go to you go to your Yahoo China where I do it like the pages are [TS]

  all busy newslink's everywhere and they're just like they hurt your eyes [TS]

  like it's just a very different as static and so it shall meet delivers all [TS]

  that need to let you customize let you do this all the store stuff yet they're [TS]

  also cool and so that but all those advantages only exist in China and so [TS]

  that's why I shall meet a big deal in China but I'm Way more skeptical about [TS]

  them outside of China because it is in transit as much right let's hope this [TS]

  type of pic right back up and where I want to go but I want to thank our [TS]

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  how much that is a good transit back please get in touch so one petabyte is a [TS]

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  much I have stored they've just crossed the six billion while mark for how many [TS]

  files have been restored by users in other words users of that plays have [TS]

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  great track record great software and iPad and iPhone app I mean to access and [TS]

  sharing of your files from anywhere you can restore one file at a time if it's [TS]

  just like oh my god I just need that one thing I don't know where it is not on my [TS]

  machine back place has a backup or all of your files easily with the web [TS]

  restore 25% of all restores they were just one file it's not just for computer [TS]

  disasters although it's great peace of mind and great service if you do run [TS]

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  computer for unlimited under on a backup quarterback blaze dot com slash daring [TS]

  fireball and just downloaded if you haven't already so my thanks to you I [TS]

  think the irony the irony of the whole Samsung Apple then is that the room the [TS]

  the consensus refrain against Apple I would say what why like the stock was [TS]

  depressed after Tim Cook first took over that they [TS]

  unsustainable for the minority marketshare OS two do know that they [TS]

  they can't sustain it against Android inevitable that it's gonna be all [TS]

  commoditized in the whole thing's gonna collapse and Samsung is gonna beat them [TS]

  Samsung is more innovative than Apple they can't they can't beat Simpson I [TS]

  think the irony is that it's really all those arguments really were to apply but [TS]

  they don't apply to Apple AirPlay the Samsung yup you know that the knock [TS]

  against Apple for most of 2011 2012 maybe even into 2013 really was the case [TS]

  against Samsung that that differentiation that they had for a [TS]

  while was not sustainable [TS]

  no that's that's exactly i mean i think is when we first connected was you know [TS]

  I wrote a piece called to bears like that basically it is pointed its to like [TS]

  for some reason and it's funny like I wrote another piece to bears revisited [TS]

  where I trudged up by some old like PC reviews of like [TS]

  MacBooks right and in every single one of them they don't talk about the [TS]

  operations what ports it has the screen call the quality in like [TS]

  analyst at the same thing and it's it's just it's so weird right and like how [TS]

  can you how can I think the vast majority the apples doom narrative comes [TS]

  from people that fundamentally don't rock the the software differentiation [TS]

  right and if you don't understand that then yes Apple is doing they're selling [TS]

  very expensive gadgets when you can get a perfectly good gadget for a quarter of [TS]

  the price right and it's it's almost impossible to oversee they'd just how [TS]

  high the table stakes are to get into that that you know so so clearly the [TS]

  biggest thing that happened in Techiman spent most of the last seven years [TS]

  talking about one thing which is the the revolution that iOS sparked as all about [TS]

  iOS Android followed but it's changed the world but it it wasn't just that [TS]

  Apple in 2005 through 2007 was able to create iOS it that I O S entirely is [TS]

  based on work that started in 1988 with next and that is in some sense it was a [TS]

  continuous effort not to do that in 1988 or 1989 that next had in mind something [TS]

  like the iPhone but there's so much that is shared and that is built on you know [TS]

  and why you know for example just just the simple aspect of you know it was [TS]

  something that came up once again just every single year just like it being the [TS]

  year of Linux this is the year where Android get 60 frames per second [TS]

  animation why does the iphone have better less stories scrolling and [TS]

  animations and then during its not because of work that Apple did not only [TS]

  because of work that Apple had did in 2006 through the present it because of [TS]

  work that that Apple has done since 1988 what up on next two NYT on the same [TS]

  point [TS]

  Windows Phone came out after and radio when his phone is always had better [TS]

  animation exactly been writing device drivers in the eighth grade and and has [TS]

  always to their credit for all the knocks you can give against windows up [TS]

  until this had a tremendous reputation for at least the interface in Windows [TS]

  was snappy and responsive right especially like you know XP versus the [TS]

  early versions of Mac OS 10 [TS]

  Apple wasn't Apple felt slap in the face felt slower because they were doing said [TS]

  to be so much more graphically it was like a long play that got them to where [TS]

  they can do these things like that you know stuff but anyway [TS]

  following different paths in with different priorities Microsoft Apple [TS]

  both have decades of work that that that's resulted in the snapping of the [TS]

  interfaces you see the day and so it's it's it's just so hard to overstate how [TS]

  hard it would be for somebody like Tyson are like Samsung to get tyson [TS]

  established as a true here to those platforms I mean I think yeah I mean [TS]

  it's easy to look at the the App Store and that's certainly a big part of it [TS]

  but like anything about it but that's another part of the table stakes at this [TS]

  point though because it wasn't in 2007 or 2008 right now is that there that's [TS]

  my point right to see everyone everyone you can stop there and say that's reason [TS]

  enough that no one else is gonna break in if you'll get iOS like that to me [TS]

  there's like three Americans units right but there's three kind of seminal [TS]

  proprietary things that happened that made us one and this one is next [TS]

  back in the eighties so that's where it started to was the iTunes Store and then [TS]

  three was was the App Store which I guess which I guess is part of that the [TS]

  like [TS]

  what makes Iowa what it is has been a decade-long process and and that and [TS]

  that's that's the thing right it's not just that Apple's differences it's [TS]

  almost a little too simple to say alcohol products are different by [TS]

  software because it really is a differentiated by the entire ecosystem [TS]

  and I everything that sits on top of it so now and we saw this with Palma not [TS]

  always even if you came out with an operating system that was as as elegant [TS]

  and easy to use [TS]

  now that that is no longer enough and there is nothing like there are very few [TS]

  things in business [TS]

  broadly I think that are more challenging than building an ecosystem [TS]

  because there's so many players involved there's so much out of your control I [TS]

  like when I was at windows I was working on the one of the top story and you know [TS]

  marriage of a few categories the absurd trying to get get people on board and [TS]

  you need you need the users in place you need the developers in place you need [TS]

  the right you need the right capabilities in the system like there's [TS]

  it this is like speaking of watches like this [TS]

  interlocking watch right but it's not like where you can put one piece in the [TS]

  next piece in the mail work together you have to not just put all the pieces in [TS]

  all fit in at the same time immediately right like that it just magically come [TS]

  together and then work and without that it's you you're forced to go to short [TS]

  cuts worth paying developers whether it's you know try to cope with something [TS]

  that's so unique that people will look over the the holes I was trying to do [TS]

  but it it's fiendishly hard and this is this is if Apple is discounted on wall [TS]

  street and I think this is going away to your point but it's it's on this is that [TS]

  people don't like someone told me that youre what Wall Street values is knowing [TS]

  that you can totally fuck it up and you'll still be in business [TS]

  rate [TS]

  and so Microsoft can release and they're still gonna make tons of money you know [TS]

  they can respond as aids still making their stock is higher now than it's been [TS]

  in years that's an interesting point and this is this is one the reasons why [TS]

  Amazon as always had such a strong stock is like people view them as being [TS]

  untouchable right like their core business no one's going no one's going [TS]

  to threaten it and Apple has always been viewed as well one bad break them and [TS]

  they're in trouble and that's why the antennagate what was a big deal [TS]

  22 lot of people's perception what is this it is that did they finally they [TS]

  finally mess up and what I think they've missed it what most analysts miss is [TS]

  actually Apple could really sadat in there would be OK because their [TS]

  ecosystem advantage is so significant it's so hard to to catch up with that [TS]

  yeah I totally agree that's a good point and I do think that there is you know [TS]

  circling back a couple of minutes [TS]

  segments ago that I do think that it's finally starting to dawn on the Investor [TS]

  world you know that Apple is not on the precipice you know yeah you know i i [TS]

  still think you're gonna see a lot of Jackass Sri related to Apple I still [TS]

  think that you're going to see let's just say they you know that the ship [TS]

  something that you wear on your wrist and it costs $300 and they sell 5 [TS]

  million of them which i think is pretty reasonable for a new thing you know [TS]

  let's just say I don't know who knows what the device does it's a dingus are [TS]

  you wearing arrest and it sells for $300 in this all five million and there's [TS]

  gonna be people who say multiply five million by $300 and say well that's [TS]

  nothing that that that averages out to 0 for Apple there for Apple is doomed [TS]

  because they needed to sell fifty million of them which doesn't happen [TS]

  with new products right [TS]

  you still gonna see that to some degree but I think that most there's there's [TS]

  that it's going to be the friends that holds onto that rather than conventional [TS]

  wisdom as part of the what we talked about like there is kind of like this [TS]

  Apple had to go through the valley little bit as far as like perception [TS]

  goes in and this is something where I'm at no I talked to talk to some people [TS]

  who you know much about people and we're very nervous about cook meeting with [TS]

  like Carl Carl Icahn and stuff like that in and really hold up as a counter to [TS]

  white you know what job you have done for all but a tocar like an exactly and [TS]

  but think this this was and I i was sympathetic to dream of always been very [TS]

  sympathetic to cook position that you know the stock price matters a lot for [TS]

  employee retention is kind of in my my position but I think we're seeing now is [TS]

  that kind of effort paying off right like a bull I feel like Apple has gotten [TS]

  a lot more breathing room [TS]

  do that we just said and and that actually is too I think looks crowded as [TS]

  well yeah I think maybe you know and I want to psychoanalyze me because you [TS]

  know I'm not a psychoanalyst too distant but that there's something to be said [TS]

  that among the way the cookie is a great CEO for Apple right now in way and ways [TS]

  ways that he is better than Steve Jobs is ego right that obvious I mean famous [TS]

  and owning it takes you know you have to be a psychologist to say that Steve Jobs [TS]

  had a very large ego you know and I think while Apple was an upstart it [TS]

  helped you know it helped to have a rock star at the helm of the company and but [TS]

  doing something like going to dinner with carl icon that shows that not that [TS]

  doesn't have a large ego but that he's willing to sublimate it you know he's [TS]

  going to say look I really doubt I'll bet I really doubt that he felt like [TS]

  going to do with Carl Icahn [TS]

  but he did it because it was good for the company you know I think there's a [TS]

  certain extraordinary diligence 222 the way Cook is is doing that humility maybe [TS]

  that's a better word that there's a humility to Tim Cook you know whether [TS]

  that's in need whether they'd partly his southern upbringing I don't know but [TS]

  it's you know one thing you nobody would say about Steve Jobs is that he was [TS]

  humble yeah and I think it's one of those things where is super easy to like [TS]

  what back on someone writing you only see the positive sides but if if Steve [TS]

  Jobs acted like Steve Jobs does well Apple is the most valuable company in [TS]

  the world like you would like to think that everything is logical no one liked [TS]

  it a lot easier to see them getting themselves in trouble [TS]

  whether it be with the government will be with like with other people like you [TS]

  know the weather be the App Store source that I mean I don't know what it would [TS]

  be but that kind of imperious this where is much better to your point when you're [TS]

  when you're the underdog as opposed to when you're the intern pound gorilla and [TS]

  I was when I this is something that was talked about a lot you know I was there [TS]

  you know he was like what we have to change like by virtue of being huge we [TS]

  have changed and we can either accept that and then try to figure out how to [TS]

  preserve what makes up about Paul or we can continue as we are but but that's [TS]

  actually a worse place to be kind of being blind about the reality which is [TS]

  the fact that we're this massive company now and and we can't be can never be the [TS]

  way it was just because things have changed the world has changed [TS]

  yeah and I think the flip side of that exact same thinking is what I wrote [TS]

  about last month with only Apple piece that killed myself not going out and [TS]

  about the way that you know that I i seemed it seems very clear to me that [TS]

  Tim Cook has has brought about the same way that the operations manufacturing [TS]

  has always been very very well-oiled [TS]

  you know you said a multi-part wats all works together that he's bringing that [TS]

  sort of efficiency to Apple's internals in Cupertino with divisions working [TS]

  together across you know that things like just a perfect example the way that [TS]

  this extensions is coming to yosemite and Iowa say the same time as they're [TS]

  working together I spoke to some of the engineer's you know and that apple just [TS]

  was not set up that way those were silos previously and it would have been you [TS]

  know they even called it the one time back to the Mac it's like okay here's a [TS]

  bunch of stuff where iOS got ahead of the Mac it's already shipped it shipped [TS]

  last year you know in last year's version of iOS and now we're bringing it [TS]

  to the Mac Apple is working like that now they're developing these things [TS]

  together you know and some of them are things that have to be done together [TS]

  like I keep forgetting the name of the future but you know hey there's a web [TS]

  page in front of me in Safari on my Mac and I wanna bring it over to my phone [TS]

  continuity continuity while the country's the parent name for all of [TS]

  these features but there's a specific name for handoff right hand off is that [TS]

  is continuity is like the umbrella name for all of the features that I like this [TS]

  like answering a phone call on your Mac is part of continuity to but they're all [TS]

  you know that did you know and to me it's a realization that it's not just [TS]

  about Tim Cook having a different personality than Steve Jobs I think it's [TS]

  about Apple being big enough that they can do things like this like it's not [TS]

  that saved apple circa 2003 or 2004 could have been operating like that or [TS]

  should have been operating like that under Steve Jobs and that the different [TS]

  you know Steve Jobs mercurial nature kept them from doing it they weren't big [TS]

  enough to do it and they weren't you know they needed to be more focus I [TS]

  think it was the right I think it was the right strategy but they've you know [TS]

  they've crossed a certain chasm in terms of size [TS]

  where if they didn't embrace a more collaborative culture they were missing [TS]

  an enormous opportunity you know that they were leaving an enormous amount of [TS]

  of wasted potential on the floor because they could be doing so much more in the [TS]

  same amount of time with a more collaborative culture than they would [TS]

  otherwise so here's here's the question though so I I agree I wrote something [TS]

  that after your peace my my my podcast exponent with with James Allworth we [TS]

  talked about this is like yet it is what's so fascinating it and talk about [TS]

  growing up and I talked about them you know kind of forgetting like the 1987 [TS]

  mindset you know that's kind of holding them back and what's what's so striking [TS]

  about this is the way in which that we are using went back and looked up [TS]

  articles and profiles was the exact same language that was used for Microsoft in [TS]

  the early 2000 like oh they've grown up like they're good at being you know [TS]

  believes that there could be more collaborative and and yes they're [TS]

  getting I'm not saying Apple Microsoft at all there's lots of important [TS]

  differences but if you use it it is worth thinking about how do I was [TS]

  curious what you think crises job said you know stay hungry stay foolish but [TS]

  we're talking about them kind of growing up in and being a little less foolish I [TS]

  mean do you worry at all that maybe there might be something that gets lost [TS]

  in this definitely worried the wrong word but you know I definitely file it [TS]

  under things to keep an eye on because I think it's uncharted territory I don't [TS]

  think that they're following microsoft's footsteps I you know and and some people [TS]

  if there is any criticism of my own the Applebees it was a long the lines [TS]

  how is this different from what you know Steve Ballmer taking over from Bill [TS]

  Gates you know and and they you know first couple of well actually the whole [TS]

  time he did lead Microsoft is significantly higher revenue and profits [TS]

  on a consistent basis while driving that you know ship that with the product [TS]

  categories that were heading over a cliff strategically by being a little [TS]

  bit more conservative in you know focusing on what we already have rather [TS]

  than new stuff but I think that's not true though because Microsoft didn't [TS]

  know that mobile is next and so yeah but they didn't want to disrupt themselves [TS]

  and they didn't want to do mobile in a way that might decrease sales of Windows [TS]

  PCs right I think that's the fundamental difference and that's to me is a good [TS]

  thing that I don't worry about it I don't think if Tim Cook if somebody came [TS]

  to Tim Cook with an idea that I don't know what it would be but clearly the [TS]

  sacred Khalid financially as the iPhone it's you know it's I think it's over [TS]

  half profits and a half of revenue even though the iPad is still growing and [TS]

  it's huge and the Mac is doing very well [TS]

  the iPhone is nothing if they came up with something that would make people [TS]

  less likely to buy iPhones I don't know what it would be but if the cyst say a [TS]

  watch that is so it doesn't it's not something that you Bluetooth tether your [TS]

  phone it's just a watch and it would make people not buy iPhones and it only [TS]

  costs $300 but it's so awesome that do with that genuinely Dr irrational person [TS]

  to think I don't even need an iPhone anymore I don't think Tim Cook would [TS]

  hesitate to do that to go ahead with it because if somebody could do it in mind [TS]

  as you know that that logic of being able to to you know rather disrupting [TS]

  yourself than having somebody else disrupt you [TS]

  it holds true that I think he has the common sense to think well you know [TS]

  that's where it's going you know I don't think he would hesitate to to chase that [TS]

  and pursue that yeah I mean I think the the the best the best thing in support [TS]

  of that is probably the iPad which you know is that american and I i do think [TS]

  that you know and I don't think they care right and it sells for six [TS]

  significantly lower [TS]

  average selling price than even the cheapest MacBook Air let alone the [TS]

  average selling price of regular MacBook right you know it's a probably half the [TS]

  price at least the average selling price and I don't think Apple regrets it one [TS]

  bit [TS]

  yeah increased increase volume right right I i think that the only thing the [TS]

  only the only hesitation I have is people always point to like the iPhone [TS]

  replace the iPod what the problem is they're making more money on iPhones and [TS]

  they were like 11 iPhone they do and what does not a great example that's why [TS]

  I like the iPad one but it is interesting I think I i do I think that [TS]

  Apple Microsoft is my Microsoft's strengths and advantages were not in the [TS]

  product right i mean they they always been a marketing company by market me [TS]

  not advertising but they've they've always done very very good job of [TS]

  understand the customer's needs and building exactly what what they want [TS]

  right now and that's why I'm all about compatibility stop in all do like all [TS]

  multiple all the drivers use up all that is because it's everything they do is [TS]

  bend they've really did have got bent over backwards to meet people's needs [TS]

  right but that doesn't work so well when it comes to consumer products where you [TS]

  can't ask every consumer what they want you have to build like the right profit [TS]

  the right product and make them want it I have always said that it is one of the [TS]

  things i think is underestimated is the importance of the exact order of your [TS]

  priorities even if you only care as an institution or even a person about three [TS]

  things it really makes a difference which ones number one in which ones [TS]

  number two they're always going to decision where you have two shoes right [TS]

  like all I really care about in life is you know are the same person but you [TS]

  know i i still think that their number one priority is creating great products [TS]

  and great experiences for the users and maybe number two is doing it [TS]

  a profit because the Prophet sustained everything and you know but it makes a [TS]

  huge difference that one is in front of two and all sorts of things fallout from [TS]

  that especially in the long run it's amazing to see the house it's not that [TS]

  Microsoft doesn't care about experience I just don't think that they place it [TS]

  quite as high on the priority list institutionally as Apple and then [TS]

  there's in the long run there's been profound differences because of that [TS]

  when is different there's different kinds of experiences right to satisfy a [TS]

  business's needs are you often prioritize things other than like the [TS]

  the end user experience of actually using the product right it's because the [TS]

  buyer is different than the user and so you prioritize what the buyer values and [TS]

  yes I think that's the real kind of big difference between the consumer market [TS]

  and and and the business market is is the end user is the is the buyer and [TS]

  that that makes Apple's strategy much more much better Apple priorities a much [TS]

  better match for the consumer market [TS]

  here's another example I'll give you an example that i think is very clear and [TS]

  that this this month's Android wear watches show Google and OM's like LG and [TS]

  Samsung plays a much higher well maybe not much different but they place a [TS]

  higher priority on being first to market then Apple does no doubt in my mind [TS]

  began its watches to me are proof of it [TS]

  that they're clearly rush to their clunky there's a lot of you read the [TS]

  reviews there's a lot of things that just are half-baked you know Joanna [TS]

  stern added my favorite review them in the wall street journal I guess it was [TS]

  last week but great review but right now [TS]

  notifications are all or nothing you either say all of your notifications [TS]

  from your phone go to your watch or none of them do this on a nap I a basis so [TS]

  it's like you that if you wanna notifications for incoming email on your [TS]

  phone then every time you get an email your risk is gonna bus which is [TS]

  maddening at least for some people [TS]

  Joanna and it is for me they've tried it with the people but you might want [TS]

  something like looked just these two people my wife and my boss you know when [TS]

  a mommy I want or like an apple turns the VIP list right if just a few there's [TS]

  nothing like that of course it's going to come eventually but that just seems [TS]

  like a would you buy that and then even better example the Moto 360 which is to [TS]

  me it's the most controversial product I can remember in years because I so many [TS]

  people on the Android side are saying it now here is a beautiful thing and it's a [TS]

  no it's not but it is not a beautiful thing it's it is better looking than the [TS]

  other two clunkers so far from LG and Samsung that's for sure but is not a [TS]

  beautiful thing it and and that stupid bar at the bottom of the screen [TS]

  awful it's awful Apple wooden ship that in a million years and the only reason [TS]

  Motorola shipping is because its rush to market everything's relative right right [TS]

  yeah we compared to the LG my watch it's clearly Motorola the designers in the [TS]

  team that built that motor 360 place a higher priority on design than than the [TS]

  LG and [TS]

  and Samsung who made their watches and even if they if they value designs much [TS]

  as Apple they also have this higher priority of wanting to ship it as soon [TS]

  as possible [TS]

  clearly I guess in anticipation of a book coming out with something shipping [TS]

  it before Apple does and so they were willing to compromise and ship this [TS]

  thing with a black bar at the bottom of the circle which is ridiculous [TS]

  so here's here's what's interesting is you know the cause the counter a deal [TS]

  that's ok we're going to enter 81 for the market but in the meantime charging [TS]

  people $225 for these things it's not just that though because think about it [TS]

  if you if you're actually you realize that you only want notification for 122 [TS]

  people do they need a screen that's a good question let's come back to them we [TS]

  thank our third sponsor animals do one more segment on the show start with with [TS]

  that with the watches and I think I know their longtime friend of the show our [TS]

  good friends at igloo internet you'll actually liked listening to ATP podcast [TS]

  this week and I'm just gonna steal the line from Marco which is always a good [TS]

  if you if there's ever anything in your life that annoying it's a great idea for [TS]

  new products in general if you can find something we're all of your options are [TS]

  annoying and you can think of a way to build a version that's not annoying and [TS]

  doesn't suck that's generally a good idea that's what it was done with [TS]

  internet intranets suck so he has attacked the problem and built an [TS]

  internet product that doesn't suck they have a new update that's coming soon [TS]

  we've talked about it on the show before it's called unicorn and has a ton of new [TS]

  features but the best part of it is integrated task management that will [TS]

  change the way you stay on track with work include tasks can be assigned in [TS]

  different ways depending on the work you're doing one of the coolest ways to [TS]

  use tasks is creating them directly on your content [TS]

  why do you need this while you're requesting update sonographic or text [TS]

  correction on a word document [TS]

  you can create these tasks right on your content see your team can stay up to [TS]

  date with what has to be done next to update the graphic or edit the text when [TS]

  you're viewing content even if it's a blog entry [TS]

  an event forum topic inside your igloo these tasks are all right there [TS]

  informing everyone of all the tasks that have been completed and what needs [TS]

  additional work you can assign tasks to yourself to teammates you can comment on [TS]

  the tasks and you can keep all the changes from one place huge feature I [TS]

  think this is obviously turned into more than just an internet it's more of a [TS]

  project management platform for your small teams really great stuff it's a [TS]

  free update for all include customers it's coming this summer you can learn [TS]

  more about it here is where you go [TS]

  igloo software dot com slash the talk show they are also a great stuff to [TS]

  throw this out there it's free for up to 10 people not free for like a month just [TS]

  free period for up to 10 people no obligation so if you have a team of [TS]

  people working together did go check amount includes software dot com slash [TS]

  the talk show great point I think bottom line is I i think you're you're saying [TS]

  about do need only one occasion for two people do you need a screen on your rest [TS]

  I to me the answer is no I don't think so just do before we actually get into [TS]

  that and I'd actually what your take is as well as we've established back and [TS]

  forth your products and says what's better than mine but with interesting [TS]

  though is about these guys rushing to market is they can say that we're just [TS]

  waiting but now they're walked into this paradigm right if it turns out that you [TS]

  know the best sort of secondary device needs only to be screen was for example [TS]

  like now there are like no other guy like they've set up a dead end [TS]

  not now it's not just that they need to backtrack in like three you know they [TS]

  actually put themselves more behind than they might have been otherwise so that [TS]

  knew that that's what makes something like that particularly interesting if [TS]

  they actually were pretty we're pursuing their own paradigm to start out with I [TS]

  must say I don't know but I can't help but think that they are and you know [TS]

  join us turned reviewed just went is explicitly called it you know what I [TS]

  think it looks like is they've taken modern smartphones and trunk them to two [TS]

  inches and put them on a wrist band and they gonna rest and we saw that works [TS]

  with mobile right that's what Microsoft added taking it taking this conversation [TS]

  full-circle they try they literally had a start button in the lower left right [TS]

  left right and I think they might have had on the upper left justice to its up [TS]

  with the same thing that you tap [TS]

  with the same thing that you tap [TS]

  start button and get a start menu and and go from there right in the eye [TS]

  I really do think they're like their mobile shortcomings were first and [TS]

  foremost because they just made a bad product they made a bad product because [TS]

  they couldn't break out of the stop thinking and to me this is by far the [TS]

  biggest criticism of Andhra and right where I have a few criticisms but the [TS]

  biggest one is it's it's Windows Mobile 2.0 it's taking a smartphone and [TS]

  cramming it onto your wrist and I i anytime you shifting the paradigm [TS]

  shifting a device like I think we take histories and isn't that old by then we [TS]

  can say pretty confidently that you have to change everything and they haven't [TS]

  done that and yeah i'm for that reason alone plus some other reasons I'm very [TS]

  skeptical you know and I've gotten some emails and I love them I do and I know [TS]

  that my audience that the jersey just human nature as such and modern media is [TS]

  such that whether it's really like national politics or whether it's [TS]

  stacked that people tend to enjoy reading things that come from the people [TS]

  who already think the way they think but I do I love the people who are like Big [TS]

  and Rich Ansari daring fireball I like as their feedback to me I seldom change [TS]

  my mind but I always consider it and it's you know to me it's a great [TS]

  perspective and I've already gotten some emails from people you know and have you [TS]

  know one of these wear watches already and they say that they like you know [TS]

  I've ever gotten from people who tell me that glass is actually what are you [TS]

  talking about relativity and basically you know as saying you know what I think [TS]

  it's great i love having my notification right I just don't think it's I don't [TS]

  dispute that there are some number of people who do like getting notifications [TS]

  on your wrist and just looking at [TS]

  and my big thing with the pebble that I just thought was the deal-breaker was [TS]

  that ok I tried borne the battle and and God bless ml of their their you know [TS]

  their gumption but you get a notification if it was something you had [TS]

  to act on their you had to take your phone out right so it's you know the one [TS]

  time I was wearing a couple at one time I work for a couple weeks that it was [TS]

  actually useful as I was driving my car and going to pick up my son at school [TS]

  and I got a text from my wife I forget what it was said but it was something I [TS]

  it was actually useful for me to get the text but I needed to text back so I had [TS]

  to and I do this I am literally a microphone at about I will not use my [TS]

  phone while driving car I had to like pull over and you know park the car for [TS]

  a second and texture it wasn't that much better than just feeling the phone [TS]

  vibrate and you know waiting until I got to the school and take the phone and see [TS]

  the text you know it wasn't an emergency it was not an emergency that was just [TS]

  about had a Razorback the thing that we're has is they have the talk so that [TS]

  if you do get a text in your hands are free you can you can speak your reply to [TS]

  the so there is that and that's a huge step over people but to me it it is not [TS]

  an inconvenience to me it's never felt like a burden to me to take my phone out [TS]

  when I feel well I mean I think they've solved a problem that I don't think many [TS]

  people have and i cant how many people have told me over the years all this [TS]

  time that watches have been rumored as the next area of innovation a text I [TS]

  can't even count the number of emails and tweets from people who say I used to [TS]

  wear a watch we're watching I was in college whatever have a long watch since [TS]

  I started carrying a cell phone I want to know the time I just take my phone [TS]

  out so it was interesting is is i do think where it makes a big difference [TS]

  actually for women especially if they carry their phone in their bags like my [TS]

  own I mean just that's a very good point that it's it's harder to find [TS]

  a phone in a bag than it is to find a phone in your front pocket and actually [TS]

  in Asia most men carry bags as well that's another reason why the bigger [TS]

  phones are our thing and so we've they've made these watches that are so [TS]

  appealing to women with that the flight is like actually probably the best [TS]

  market is women and these are ya like the listeners have to watch the video [TS]

  right like I put it and she will give it away just it's it's it's it's really [TS]

  great [TS]

  addresses that points but anyway the one thing that watches have been best that [TS]

  ever since when they were invented is telling time that's the one thing [TS]

  everybody I think would agree is the one thing that you know the definition of a [TS]

  watch everything else every other complications watches isn't a secondary [TS]

  feature primary purpose is to find out what time it is and I think most people [TS]

  the phone has proven to be a good enough solution and that you know I can't tell [TS]

  you how many people have told me that the one thing want to specialize in [TS]

  people like I always have my cell phone in my pocket I don't we're watching let [TS]

  alone let alone everything else like people who might be texting you pictures [TS]

  and longer texts and you know even on screen shots you know I don't know [TS]

  there's just so many so many bizarre compromises in the design of this where [TS]

  and pebbles the same way where it shows so few characters because you know it's [TS]

  a tiny little you know one point six inch display and you can't just can't [TS]

  show even like a text message is hard to fit on and want yeah yeah this is like [TS]

  there's one thing watches are better at and even then people are going to wear [TS]

  them how they wear them for something that is worth that and it's you know and [TS]

  and again repeating myself everybody's made this point but it's also very [TS]

  decidedly a generational thing you know younger you are the less like you [TS]

  and less like you are to have ever wanna watch and therefore why would I do that [TS]

  why would I buy a thing that just tells me the time I always know the time I got [TS]

  my phone so i i i increasingly feel again I don't have a great products and [TS]

  just kind of thinking through this stuff the rule is one I think there's going to [TS]

  be a range I don't think there is a watch or enright what's there's a whole [TS]

  bunch of devices there might be rings are right be watches it might be clips [TS]

  there might be what you do with it might be like 10 different things and to I [TS]

  think most of them won't have screens maybe there will be one or two that do [TS]

  but I don't know I did especially screens as we know them which are [TS]

  enormous energy hogs in which is the reason why you're here watch faster or [TS]

  Android where watch has to be charged daley and I know I think I said this [TS]

  last week when I was on the show but I just think people are I think so many [TS]

  tech people are vastly vastly overestimating what an enormous burden [TS]

  is to carry even a single device that needs charging daley and we've all made [TS]

  this decision we all have to sit cited that having these modern cell phones is [TS]

  important enough to do it but it's an enormous burden and every time you go to [TS]

  the airport and you see people sitting grown men in suits sitting on the floor [TS]

  so they can be in your pocket that's for one device [TS]

  asking people to have a second device that you need to charge on a daily basis [TS]

  and one which requires a proprietary weirdo charger thing that you have to [TS]

  somehow carry around with you is again I'm not saying it's impossible you know [TS]

  clearly the cellphone referral if if if it's possible to get everybody to carry [TS]

  one device that needs charging daily it's possible to make them have to but [TS]

  don't underestimate just how crazy it is that we've convinced everybody to carry [TS]

  even one device that needs charging yet I don't think so I makes you just you [TS]

  just said it exactly right if that one device can do with that other devices [TS]

  yeah exactly [TS]

  show notifications later flight [TS]

  them like we are convincing even more like I really don't think there's going [TS]

  to be a screen because like there's a full one just imagine this is going to [TS]

  be like the whole like the iPhone has no buttons the iWatch News screen but I [TS]

  think you have to think about it like to think back to the iPod like what what [TS]

  made the iPod's soul transformative it was that it removed features from music [TS]

  players right there in music players on the market but Haley's Italy things to [TS]

  to change controls in his part of it was the thousands on the pocket and and and [TS]

  the design but a big part it was items it was that all this complex management [TS]

  stuff was removed from the device input on a much more suitable device and and [TS]

  they losing it using it felt like going downhill not up right exactly like in [TS]

  all it did was was was like what [TS]

  only it could do which is play music on the goal and actually managing play with [TS]

  all that sort of stuff you did you did on your computer and I ice and overtime [TS]

  that change like now my on my phone has never been connected my computer right [TS]

  but that took like over a decade rate I think I think watches or these wearables [TS]

  are going to start the same way they were their function will be something [TS]

  that only they can do that they watch cannot do is probably the sensor stop [TS]

  them is going to be I think that I do think there'll be a notification thing [TS]

  but it will be the only your favourites to favorites on your phone like those [TS]

  will be the only ones people bitch and moan about who it is but but in all the [TS]

  other stuff will be on the phone there won't be there will be minimal if any [TS]

  duplication between what one does and what the other does and on the flip side [TS]

  I think Apple is going to try to make these not tech devices that look good [TS]

  but fashion accessories that happen to have electronic functions right you've [TS]

  gotta work backwards and it's a paraphrase it but it's a Steve Jobs [TS]

  quote that you've got to work backwards from [TS]

  the experience what it is you want to do to the technology and not the other way [TS]

  around into me these Android where devices are exactly the opposite its [TS]

  starting with and and Google even said this explicitly on stage at IO it's now [TS]

  possible to build a smartphone like device that fits under arrest [TS]

  true that that wasn't possible before that it's it's you know great increases [TS]

  in miniaturization rate increases in you know you know just the ability to power [TS]

  the power this little tiny screens even for a day does require new technology [TS]

  and Bluetooth LTE is new technology so that you can actually maintain a [TS]

  tethered connection even if no one day's battery life is crappy I think for a [TS]

  watch but it says something that you can keep a Bluetooth and all the reviews [TS]

  indicate that you do get a full day out of the thing that's new technology but [TS]

  it's all working backwards from we can do this so led to do it and here it is [TS]

  dead of starting with what would actually be a good experience for thing [TS]

  you were arrested what would look good [TS]

  know exactly how do I i have one more question for you [TS]

  ok I'm actually curious your take on so much that's why we didn't tell my big [TS]

  reason that I wear and where I'm I don't think the guy I think it's it's it's a [TS]

  missed everything is Windows Mobile my other question is is what you think [TS]

  about Google now I you know I did I think it's I wrote a little thing about [TS]

  it when I went to join us [TS]

  turns review today they do you think that's where there's the most potential [TS]

  and Android wearables is that Google to me I think has best of breed speech [TS]

  understanding speaking oil it works [TS]

  everything and I think syria has gotten better I really do I use it all the time [TS]

  walking away walking around the city while texting on to use the speech and [TS]

  and i'd [TS]

  serious the umbrella term not Siri the intelligent agent but Siri the [TS]

  hit the microphone next to the space bar dictator text it's gotten better got [TS]

  more accurate and it has gotten the latency is improved and it works better [TS]

  over cellular but it still is not as good as Google's and that's because I [TS]

  think Google's is isn't standing still on that either right [TS]

  best of breed Google's beds best of breed for speaking to a device and [TS]

  understanding it quickly and I think there's a lot of potential there for [TS]

  wearables but then my problem is I don't buy into the let Google know everything [TS]

  about me I don't use Google Calendar I don't want cool I don't want to go [TS]

  knowing my location I'm genuinely creeped out by all that well what if you [TS]

  weren't creeped out though like to think that something that you would find [TS]

  useful [TS]

  the reason the reason I ask is is to me I feel this is a there's a really [TS]

  interesting interview with Vinod Khosla Ventures and and weary Page and Sergey [TS]

  Brin earlier this week and and they talked about this a bit and I feel [TS]

  they're just a fundamentally different view of computing between Google and [TS]

  Apple and it really is personified right now boarded by Syrian forces school now [TS]

  yeah I think that's a good point and I think I know you're going that and part [TS]

  of it is I've been reading these reviews of the the where devices and a lot of [TS]

  what you see on them isn't what you've asked for it what Google thinks you [TS]

  wanna see right through you don't you don't say show me my flight it is it [TS]

  you've put your flight your calendar and at a certain point google says hey [TS]

  you've got you've gotta 1 p.m. flight and it's 10:30 in the morning and it's [TS]

  going to take you at least 45 minutes to get there and and it it comes up you [TS]

  didn't ask for it doesn't end and I've seen a couple of reviews mention weather [TS]

  is like that like you'll get like a weather thing and one should dismiss it [TS]

  you can't make a comeback [TS]

  there's no way to say show me that whether card I just dismissed they they [TS]

  show you the weather when they think you know want to know about the weather and [TS]

  that I think I would find that man well yeah but you know exactly it it's it's [TS]

  they their view is anticipating your needs and like taking care of them for [TS]

  you and it's it really is a very paid said like this [TS]

  why the I'm feeling lucky but was there I'm feeling lucky is what Google thats [TS]

  Google's ideal vision of Google search is that actually everyone always can hit [TS]

  I feel lucky because it will always serve exactly the right result and but [TS]

  their vision now is even past that it's like you don't even have to type [TS]

  something in the box like they will know what you want in and give it to you and [TS]

  it's like it really is no benefit to having earlier posted a tweet during low [TS]

  of saying Google he post a picture of the scene from Wally where the fat [TS]

  people are bad and sitting in chairs an alternate on there being a dress that go [TS]

  Google and Apple are racing here in and I wrote a piece I might actually I think [TS]

  Google is going there but I think Apple is very explicitly not going there and [TS]

  it goes back to you know Steve Jobs saying the computer is a bicycle ride a [TS]

  bicycle is still subject to a human's direction in humans proportion it's just [TS]

  it just enhances that it's not it's not a self-driving cars like taking you [TS]

  where you want to go and and you see that was serious serious doesn't [TS]

  anticipate your needs it only responds to questions and I don't think that's a [TS]

  technical limitation I think it's a philosophical one and and to me I think [TS]

  that something that you know is very is really a question who's going on the [TS]

  future because if if Google's right they will in the future because they're so [TS]

  far ahead of everyone but if if if it's if computers stay a tool then apple and [TS]

  they're they're using user experience on sort of stuff will continue to [TS]

  differentiate them and maybe it's not either-or either you know maybe it's you [TS]

  know bifurcation and you know 11 group of depending on your personality is [TS]

  drawn to one side and once drawn to another and it comes back to I think [TS]

  what Benedict haven't had written this week about that ever since 2007 iOS and [TS]

  Android have been converging and they've been [TS]

  China picking up the same for you know Google picked up drag drag from the top [TS]

  for notifications first and then Andrew picked it up and Android picked up a [TS]

  whole bunch of features that I was way ahead of them on you know when I but [TS]

  then eventually they picked up both of them got all the low-hanging fruit and [TS]

  with this year's iOS aid and Andrea del announcements now you're seeing them go [TS]

  in different directions and I think you're you're talking about the same [TS]

  sort of thing i think is you know and I you know maybe they're both sustainable [TS]

  maybe it's not you know but that they appealed a very different people I don't [TS]

  know I think one of the most telling things I i've read about Android where [TS]

  I'm reading about it but it was ron Amedeo those review and Ars Technica [TS]

  Android we're just the software which when I first started reading it I [TS]

  thought I expected to roll my eyes because I thought it was weird idea to [TS]

  review the software in the abstract as opposed to the actual experience of the [TS]

  watches on the actual devices but to their credit cards did have reviews of [TS]

  the watches but and ron's review of just and right where was interesting because [TS]

  it just sort of focus on the philosophy of it and he emphasized these things [TS]

  that a lot of what you see on it is what Google thinks you want to see and that [TS]

  you know and he mentioned specifically with the weather that it was frustrating [TS]

  they couldn't just bring it back up and that to me would be maddening but I [TS]

  think it's also very telling about the philosophy behind it [TS]

  no no I think you're exactly right that it is Philip philosophical differences [TS]

  is that exactly and I saw the whole thing but I saw the interview with [TS]

  that up to the interview with Sir J and yeah I think that the gist of it was [TS]

  that he was saying that eventually the algorithms gonna be smarter than us [TS]

  right I mean it really it's interesting to i think this is this is part of the [TS]

  thing why Google you know is tends to have a toehold on kind of geeks in [TS]

  general is like this always kind of been been a very geeky domain [TS]

  kids aren't afraid of AI they're not afraid of robots rape like they're [TS]

  they're intrigued by them they're drawn to them like moths to a flame right and [TS]

  Google has always been very much in that sort of vibe and but what's really [TS]

  interesting is gonna be you see it starting to play out now even more ease [TS]

  as tech has spent the last twenty thirty years ed itself right we've disrupted [TS]

  other and all that sort of stuff but now as it's touching every part of society [TS]

  you're getting like people who don't think about this [TS]

  who who really do see computers as tools right there they help them get stuff [TS]

  done the other encountering this our house at like Facebook and and and the [TS]

  testing all that which in most cases they be testing but to what the hell's [TS]

  going on here right and I think it's gonna be really intrigued to see as this [TS]

  kind of coalition happens with society as a whole and they start waking up to [TS]

  like to this kind of like what what is almost were used to I suspect that [TS]

  actually that I i think is going to play out more in the computers as tools and [TS]

  get some most people view them in want them to operate but maybe Google's right [TS]

  and people do want you know personal assistants algorithms can deliver [TS]

  satisfying superior yeah our superior right now and it's not even knew it on [TS]

  it's certainly not a new direction for Google its its new terrain in the same [TS]

  direction you know like Google News that's the whole point between Google [TS]

  News that you could which you know that project product for them anymore but the [TS]

  basic idea behind it [TS]

  that Google could algorithmically predict the most important news and news [TS]

  I guess personalize the most appealing to you as opposed to the editors of The [TS]

  New York Times or you know the varied for technology or whatever what's so [TS]

  interesting though is his Google big product still is today [TS]

  search and search is actually much more if we're going to call this device like [TS]

  an apple the Apple side of things like you it's directed you go there and you [TS]

  put in a word and you click the button press one Google product that Steve Jobs [TS]

  adamantly said is a great product [TS]

  exactly and it's and it's funny because while Google is pushing for is is [TS]

  actually different than what they're big successful product is yeah yeah that's a [TS]

  great point I agree with that [TS]

  briefly cuz I wanna go past the two hour mark but there was one last thing I [TS]

  wanted to speak to you about well as you know that if I didn't is that just [TS]

  yesterday broke that Apple has hired yet take your yea yea Sales Director sales [TS]

  executive from TAG Heuer of high-end luxury watch brand which is part of an [TS]

  independent brain it's part of LBM LBM ages louisvuitton what they made it down [TS]

  wrong things like this [TS]

  well it's a free everything alright so anyway French conglomerate that owns [TS]

  louisvuitton Tennessee you know it's true conglomerate as part of their [TS]

  rights so you know I think it's fair to say that any company that owns for us [TS]

  both louisvuitton and the champagne and cognac brand but obviously there is a [TS]

  certain you know luxury quality branding [TS]

  they've hired a sales executive and that joins who came from Yves Saint Laurent [TS]

  and most famously in July Lawrence and said that I will include dr dre Anna [TS]

  group in and that's all I said last night and I realize luxuries the wrong [TS]

  word answers this is clarifying [TS]

  added that I including of island Dr Dre because I don't think but I don't think [TS]

  luxuries the right word to explain these hires it's about some kind of like [TS]

  circling around taste style branding brand though it's a luxury brand right [TS]

  well and then I said here's where I think when people say I'm worried about [TS]

  this I'm worried about the direction Apple's going is about this the iPhone [TS]

  is nothing like Burke 23 by like a $6,000 Symbian phone calls on it [TS]

  impeaches like virtue either right because I never see people walking down [TS]

  the street with her two phones but every single day in Philadelphia I see people [TS]

  were especially a note on my tensions and apple bottom I see him every day I [TS]

  see people wearing beat every single day in philadelphia and Bertuzzi its beaches [TS]

  like an apple luxury brand where it's accessible luxury and depending on your [TS]

  taste in music you know it's as good of I don't get ready like that sound right [TS]

  I know it's not technically accurate right it's you know you know but most [TS]

  people don't feel like they're sacrificing her to you're sacrificing [TS]

  right exactly yeah and don't you think you know and quality you know and it's [TS]

  certain scent I heard you know somebody told me for example this is this is it I [TS]

  don't know a lot of really didn't know about that one guy wrote me and said you [TS]

  know i buy Beats headphones [TS]

  the amazing return policy and it takes care of you like he said i buy a pair [TS]

  beat cost me 300 bucks and like nine months later they broke I took them back [TS]

  and they just took him in game in new parent no questions asked and you don't [TS]

  get that from other companies yeah people happy in building a relationship [TS]

  I don't know I don't know a ton about you know specifically what what what [TS]

  strikes me about these more interest in nineteen your take on beat but just [TS]

  under one or two could be an outlier but it seems to be a trend yeah I mean to me [TS]

  that that suggests one that the wearable thing is multiple things to that they're [TS]

  they're focused on fashion first night you know I miss that word fashions an [TS]

  important word I think but three I thought I was most of this guy was the [TS]

  Sales Director yet because that's a that's a completely different kettle of [TS]

  fish then then retail which they already do or or the CBO which you could [TS]

  certainly see him time or into the product side of things but this guy is [TS]

  not doing product is not actually making the things he's telling me has [TS]

  connections with the Department these Asian department stores that sell [TS]

  products or with you know the the duty free shops in like over here that i'm [TS]

  not really more about like that that sell that have a way back this that's el [TS]

  nino champagne at sell all the perfumes I think they're sort of stuff that's [TS]

  super interesting because it's just that it's not that Apple's new product that I [TS]

  bought a new channel new distribution strategy and I would suspect that [TS]

  Aaron's would have a very a lot to say about that as well because burglary out [TS]

  what yes they are in the same places like malls and stuff like that like the [TS]

  there's there's not a burglary in your typical suburban mall there is a [TS]

  burglary in like the you know the ongoing airport or like the type of 11 [TS]

  building like which is like these super high-end [TS]

  and shopping destinations like The Shops at Caesars right in the middle of the [TS]

  best intersection that this trip right [TS]

  Apple does do that internationally with their stores like so with this is [TS]

  reassuring to that that makes the airport and I i wanted to get this it's [TS]

  like it differs by region right the way Apple presents itself in the USA is [TS]

  different than they're they're presented in like china for example where it's [TS]

  much more of a luxury good in their stores are next to its next to the [TS]

  louboutin store where is the USA its famously there always next victoria [TS]

  secret it's just a different it's a different presentation and but they also [TS]

  have for example a true flagship destination store on Fifth Avenue in New [TS]

  over sure yet but they do both right that they're right there on fifth avenue [TS]

  for the true flagship you know almost almost sickening how do you know when [TS]

  you see how many people take pictures in front of the other landmarks in new york [TS]

  but you know the same time there at the Birmingham all in new hampshire know [TS]

  that in so that that's the thing is like the Apple iPhone because the that that [TS]

  would hurt their that would hurt their brand in other parts of the world even [TS]

  if and and so it's it's super interesting the time the sales guy [TS]

  because that's why they also makes me think that you're not going to get into [TS]

  these stores selling a a SmartWatch that looks good in these stores by selling a [TS]

  desirable object that also has this functionality and that's when I don't [TS]

  see there being a bookie screen on a charger with it I think I see it being [TS]

  something that's very a range of things super interesting correct myself [TS]

  Rockingham Rockingham Park that's raised to go to the Apple store [TS]

  it's great that we know more about like suburban malls they do that needs a [TS]

  luxury goods company yeah I told him and and like I said I i said i stand by this [TS]

  i really dunno more weeks since I wrote it I really do think that it has to [TS]

  start with a design that before you even see what it does when you hold that up [TS]

  by that has two and I know that that sounds there there's a certain logical [TS]

  minded engineering mindset out there you know and I think you know sort of people [TS]

  who might be drawn more towards the things he thinks that's that's crazy why [TS]

  in the world would you why would that matter you know its function first-rate [TS]

  and I'm telling you that for me and I think for the mass market you've gotta [TS]

  start with something where you just hold it up before you turn it on people say [TS]

  all I want that you know I hate to say it I think the iPhone was like that and [TS]

  I think the most amazing thing about the iPhone was what the software did and how [TS]

  the screen but I think you know they could have just held that up and not [TS]

  even turn the screen on and say here's the iPhone and people would have been [TS]

  like where do I get so it's interesting is this takes it full circle right [TS]

  because we just talked with beginning where the hardware actually wasn't [TS]

  Apple's most important thing it was the software but in a lot of ways for a new [TS]

  category [TS]

  it is a hardware that gets you in the door yeah and then people and now in now [TS]

  there's they're stuck on the software they are not going anywhere right yeah [TS]

  it's you know it's never never you know there's there's certain areas where the [TS]

  summer is more important in certain areas where the hardware is more [TS]

  important but it never never you're always in trouble if you start saying [TS]

  that Apple is either a hardware company that does offer a well or software [TS]

  company that does hardware well it's it's you gotta see it as a virtuous [TS]

  cycle that there you know neither is more important than the other they just [TS]

  had there's certain aspects of the product cycle world one is more [TS]

  important than other alright let's call it a show Ben Thompson thank you [TS]

  where can people find more people who want more Ben Thompson can go to its a [TS]

  there's protect hurry [TS]

  Str [TS]

  a Dec eight er wired.com just google Ben Thompson book itself people always give [TS]

  me a hard time because my websites like official name is Ben Thompson both the [TS]

  name of Ben Thompson yeah I don't blame you one bit [TS]

  there's the exponent podcast listening to very good that's an exponent . FMX [TS]

  I just did that by memory yet not like I think I don't know if that's where I got [TS]

  it from was the whole yeah yeah I think it's great yeah yeah get stolen [TS]

  memorable it's easy to get needs to cost like 80 bucks a year right which is high [TS]

  enough that people are squad on it right but not where ya it's funny you get to [TS]

  be an adult and you have a box here and it's actually a good thing whereas I [TS]

  remember to register domain names in it was $15 a year I just registered on [TS]

  trade dollars a year it was iight tomatoes that Gandhi yeah and and they [TS]

  tell you how much that's terrible it's it's it's it's it's been years right [TS]

  I've been carrying demands for like 10 15 years of this adds up [TS]

  oh my god said Mike Monteiro was on the show it I can never tell an addict how [TS]

  much you get a bar tab that they don't put like a thing at the bottom of your [TS]

  bartender tells you like here's what you spend year-to-date right [TS]

  distributor does not give your today you know tab be crazy last but not least on [TS]

  Twitter excellent Twitter account you are at monk [TS]

  ke and PE and TV has been so thank you very much great show this was absolutely [TS]

  great I think it was worth it just for thinking of entering where [TS]

  as as Windows Mobile 2.0 along to me that just puts finger right in the [TS]

  middle of the bottom what I see as being a problem with it anyway thank you good [TS]

  to be here [TS]