The Talk Show

72: Go To The Mat On Stickers


00:00:00   you know where we could start with we could start with the disease came up on [TS]

00:00:04   my show two weeks ago with with MGC whether we can figure out how to [TS]

00:00:14   pronounce your website's name it's pronounced Jeff [TS]

00:00:22   XIII want to ask your advice on this because it's it's actually it is a bit [TS]

00:00:27   of an ongoing issue so you know I thought has been very clever and that as [TS]

00:00:34   i've learned now that I write you know ready with a bit more an audience of [TS]

00:00:38   cleverness is not go far on the web so I called a strategic hurry there is the [TS]

00:00:43   old Will Ferrell skit where he was being George W Bush and asked him you know [TS]

00:00:48   what your plan and he just said strategic a one-word answer and saw your [TS]

00:00:53   ad that you strategy and tactic gether and I will do the easy with the phonetic [TS]

00:00:59   symbol on top of it and that's that's my twitter icon for the site and and so I [TS]

00:01:04   but the problem is everyone says and honestly it makes more sense but I'm [TS]

00:01:10   really loathe to either a give up the Phoenix phonetic symbol or be pronounced [TS]

00:01:16   it in opposition to the phonetic symbols I kind of feel about him I was hoping [TS]

00:01:23   for a god damned if you don't [TS]

00:01:27   35 degree but if you don't know what I'm talking to Ben Thompson and his website [TS]

00:01:34   is pretty curry dot com you certainly seem that if your website if I want to [TS]

00:01:40   add many times over the last year [TS]

00:01:43   yeah I I guessed that you meant strategery because I see the whatever [TS]

00:01:50   that's called over the E but my head of US college yeah I think I said probably [TS]

00:01:59   switch it I i'm told him doing the diff job for my first teacher though I never [TS]

00:02:07   never thought of the world Farrell [TS]

00:02:08   I don't actually if you if you actually even have a pronunciation guide in the [TS]

00:02:13   right bar which you know never looks at but if you click it actually goes to the [TS]

00:02:18   Will Ferrell video which is which is remains fantastic wait ten years later [TS]

00:02:25   ya see I have never been good at reading those genetic samples in fact what's [TS]

00:02:32   going on right now is the SWA which is my favorite 10 I used to be in English [TS]

00:02:38   teachers when I first came to taiwan like that's the classic you know sort of [TS]

00:02:41   her four-year travel teach English so I'm very familiar athletic symbols and [TS]

00:02:49   so I thought it was kind of amusing to have them thereby yes the world behold [TS]

00:02:54   no one actually knows what the fuck they are so I remember I'm ever market [TS]

00:03:01   explicit but we let them fly over here [TS]

00:03:04   know it's funny nobody complains I don't know I'll probably get inundated with [TS]

00:03:09   complaints have iTunes take it down yes I will use the new podcast they like [TS]

00:03:16   that there's a allegedly a review process but they say it'll take like a [TS]

00:03:20   week but actually comes back in like two hours there's like there's no there's no [TS]

00:03:23   way they actually listen to anything and there's no I don't know what is the most [TS]

00:03:29   the record for swear words in an episode of the show but whatever it is it's not [TS]

00:03:33   that bad [TS]

00:03:35   no no areas show that I've done in the soyuz like two hours to the lake ratio [TS]

00:03:42   of swear words dammit it has to be relatively well I was the show was [TS]

00:03:49   rigged show be sure it will be done in half an hour I don't have much to say I [TS]

00:03:56   also think it would be funny if there are times if you do it right it can be [TS]

00:04:01   very funny if you swear but bleep [TS]

00:04:05   but it's more editing what was the what was the thing where they were adding [TS]

00:04:10   beliefs oh yeah like that hole like that so that all the controversy over like [TS]

00:04:16   I've never even heard of in my life but homophobic remarks apparently one thing [TS]

00:04:22   they were really here david is that the network was adding beliefs to the shell [TS]

00:04:26   that weren't actually swear words like make it more interesting was it the duck [TS]

00:04:31   dynasty yes yes I never believed it see that's funny I don't have you heard it [TS]

00:04:41   do there's a Adam Sandler song from the late nineties called piece of shit car [TS]

00:04:47   yes I like a reggae song and the first time I would never laugh is just one of [TS]

00:04:55   those things will never forget I don't know where we're troubles just me and my [TS]

00:04:58   wife in a car and came on and it was all bleeped out and and we just assumed that [TS]

00:05:05   the it was so funny with the beliefs that we just assume that that's what it [TS]

00:05:09   was in fact now that was the radio edit it but it was it was just riddled with [TS]

00:05:14   them but because everything rhymed you knew what they all were and it really [TS]

00:05:20   worked like the swear words all hit on the rhymes so like it actually was and [TS]

00:05:27   I'm not a prude at all I don't I didn't think I don't think you know it needs to [TS]

00:05:32   be moved out for you know our precious little children's ears or anything but [TS]

00:05:36   it was actually way funnier though it's like when those things right like you [TS]

00:05:42   know leaving just a little bit of imagination makes it that much more [TS]

00:05:45   alluring right exactly or the old trick you could pull where if you write a [TS]

00:05:51   little wasted podcasts kid in write this stupid for line poem where that last [TS]

00:05:58   line is clearly leading the rhyme is gonna and on a swear word but then you [TS]

00:06:03   pick some other word yes [TS]

00:06:05   and then and then when someone reads it remarks on you like that that's not it [TS]

00:06:10   was going for it all politicians yeah I was such a hassle we can start with this [TS]

00:06:24   whole what's out there obviously I mean it's what do you understand this now [TS]

00:06:29   when it was first reported that Facebook bought these guys it was sixteen billion [TS]

00:06:33   and then went up to nineteen billion you know what the three billion is basically [TS]

00:06:40   restricted stock units for the employees of whatsapp it's a very very strong [TS]

00:06:45   golden handcuff pace with keep them in the company and so he dares [TS]

00:06:50   theoretically possible that they won't be exercised and then would be sixteen [TS]

00:06:55   billion dollar deal but given how they are and the fact that they should be [TS]

00:07:00   easily they should be converted its I think from me more of a VC perspective [TS]

00:07:08   as primary sixteen billion dollar deal I was calling it that in the nineteen I [TS]

00:07:13   think it's fair to call in nineteen billion dollar deal I mean what the deal [TS]

00:07:17   was forced is it sixteen billion in cash no no no no there is I don't remember [TS]

00:07:23   the exact numbers but it's a it's three parts the receipts documents and then [TS]

00:07:27   its cash and that it's Facebook's stock alright so there's nothing to unvested [TS]

00:07:30   stock is super high right now so they're there they have a lot of headroom to to [TS]

00:07:38   make these sort of acquisitions and that's that's one of the advantages of [TS]

00:07:41   having an IPO on having stock you know there's tons of downsides to you know as [TS]

00:07:46   worse it was a polite but you get a lot of Monopoly money to play with and [TS]

00:07:51   they're taking advantage it's such a crazy a number like somebody a couple [TS]

00:08:00   people have pointed out and there's a whole tumblr [TS]

00:08:04   whatsapp [TS]

00:08:09   fire that happen to see what's on there isn't Sony isn't sony's market cap West [TS]

00:08:13   them I was like oh there's no way they are things there are two things that are [TS]

00:08:20   cheaper than what's out that tumblr.com [TS]

00:08:23   forty years the National Cancer Institute the NBA's top 20 football [TS]

00:08:30   clubs right so that the estimated market value of every single team in the [TS]

00:08:37   National Basketball Association is less than 16 million or 19 whatever you wanna [TS]

00:08:42   call it I don't know either way I but using nineteen billion on the site right [TS]

00:08:46   so it seems crazy to me I mean some of this you know I don't know I mean is you [TS]

00:08:54   know maybe a trade and maybe it's just the way that the human mind plays tricks [TS]

00:08:58   on you but like america is a perfect example why I hate American Airlines [TS]

00:09:04   really I i've I i think im only for a non-american once in my life and it was [TS]

00:09:12   terrible I'm pretty sure if it's not once it's twice my favorite my favorite [TS]

00:09:18   beers Iceland country [TS]

00:09:27   communicated you punch upon Iceland and you know models that so it is hard it's [TS]

00:09:34   hard to grasp numbers like that because we're talkin you know it's it's a big [TS]

00:09:39   number and you know I'm just a normal guy carries $100 is why so it's a big [TS]

00:09:47   number I don't think it's i mean that I was initially like I mean I got the [TS]

00:09:59   message via messenger out in this case was laying in bed no time zones are [TS]

00:10:05   obviously off and my first reaction was like whoa by when you can I dig into it [TS]

00:10:12   if you would get white paper a per-user number like $40 per user which is [TS]

00:10:19   actually relatively cheap your Facebook user in stock markets were like $160 [TS]

00:10:26   Twitter user is is worth quite a bit less than Facebook was somewhere in the [TS]

00:10:33   middle there in like Facebook bought Instagram which was a great deal now say [TS]

00:10:39   the same reaction that holy crap one billion dollars right regulate while but [TS]

00:10:44   it but they they paid they pay like $30 per user and now I really like wow what [TS]

00:10:49   a great deal that was in whatsapp is in you know for sure that much more you [TS]

00:10:55   actually the races in my mind [TS]

00:10:57   Skype where max up its $70 per user but the point is in that sort of metric it's [TS]

00:11:07   actually not outrageous I mean it's difficult i think to understand the [TS]

00:11:13   scale of what's out [TS]

00:11:14   itself it is by a significant margin the second largest social network in the [TS]

00:11:19   world second only to add to facebook facebook 1.2 billion and what's out [TS]

00:11:26   there is 450 million and its 450 million active users like there's lotsa networks [TS]

00:11:32   that are you a registered users and if you wanna value things as what you pay [TS]

00:11:38   active user and and you know how active users definitely an important metric has [TS]

00:11:42   an awful and I know that what's up some numbers for active users [TS]

00:11:47   you know is is really really high it's something like seventy percent of the [TS]

00:11:50   people have signed up are active users and so they really yeah and so they can [TS]

00:11:55   just that's the number they actually use you know they don't they don't have to [TS]

00:12:00   talk brag about how many accounts they have you you know users period and sort [TS]

00:12:04   of you know whitewash the fact that there's a whole bunch of them have been [TS]

00:12:07   inactive for 90 days or something like that they just talked about daily active [TS]

00:12:11   users and it's a really high number but it's also clear if you look at the graph [TS]

00:12:17   of or any graph of the number of messages they're sending or the number [TS]

00:12:22   of users are sending or the number of signups are getting daily that it's it's [TS]

00:12:26   got to be an even lower number than 40 or $45 per user because no matter what [TS]

00:12:31   happens after this announcement in the next couple of months clearly they're [TS]

00:12:36   still signing up for the next for the Lexus a half a year next year they're [TS]

00:12:41   signing up somewhere around two million people a day [TS]

00:12:43   yeah somewhat there's a graph comparing the like first first four years of [TS]

00:12:50   what's out to Facebook to Twitter to choose different gmail and quipped that [TS]

00:12:55   this is the first time that Facebook was never willing to sew a graph it so then [TS]

00:12:59   getting destroyed because whatsapp is growing at like four times the pace that [TS]

00:13:03   that Facebook was and I think that this is the key to the graphic the hockey [TS]

00:13:10   stick part of the graph is still going up not even close to leveling off its [TS]

00:13:16   accelerating so I think it's easily you know if there are four hundred and some [TS]

00:13:21   million now it's easy to think that a year from now they might be at seven or [TS]

00:13:24   eight 909 totally totally and I think that there's there the one thing to [TS]

00:13:31   remember is these kind of deals where you're buying a [TS]

00:13:35   accelerating service like theirs they actually use it turned out pretty well I [TS]

00:13:40   mean everyone was scandalized by Google by youtuber three billion dollars like [TS]

00:13:45   that's a massive steel in retrospect [TS]

00:13:48   same thing with Instagram same thing with that in the nineties marks on my [TS]

00:13:52   hotmail flight four hundred million dollars the hugest acquisition in your [TS]

00:13:56   at that time is actually try not to also be $40 a user and like these these sort [TS]

00:14:03   of deals are you're buying a exploding fire role networked sort of service tend [TS]

00:14:11   to turn out pretty well it's the ones that are more kind of like you know [TS]

00:14:16   banks hot deals where things have to go right for them to turn out that tended [TS]

00:14:20   not turn out so well and so from that perspective I think it's ok [TS]

00:14:25   the other thing is like messaging is a bit I been awhile then part of its cause [TS]

00:14:30   im like messaging is a really big deal it's way bigger deal than than Facebook [TS]

00:14:37   was in the PC its it is the thing on mobile I get it dominates use it [TS]

00:14:43   absolutely dominates usage in every market except for the us- and if you [TS]

00:14:49   remember US-led SMS to so i i think that's part of the kind of the builder [TS]

00:14:53   meant but i i think it's a justified deal in my opinion I am going to play [TS]

00:14:59   devil's advocate and I'm going to say I'm going to argue I i'm I don't [TS]

00:15:06   necessarily believe it but for the sake of argument here I'm gonna push a more [TS]

00:15:11   common sense accounting look at this so let's say they've they've paid $40 a [TS]

00:15:21   user and let's say that I'm right and even as a that say for the sake of this [TS]

00:15:26   argument that I am a downer on this deal but even so I've got to admit that [TS]

00:15:30   you've got to be looking at let's say eight hundred million users on whatsapp [TS]

00:15:34   eventually because of the growth that they're saying and the way that these [TS]

00:15:38   things spread socially where you know if 34 of your friends are using it it just [TS]

00:15:43   you know significant pressure to download this free app that route [TS]

00:15:47   definitely runs on your phone because they run on just about any phone that [TS]

00:15:51   came due IP networking [TS]

00:15:56   $20 he's right [TS]

00:15:59   said $20 how the hell do they make $20 per user back from them and if they [TS]

00:16:04   don't how can it possibly be worth the money because they've already promised [TS]

00:16:08   no ads and they've said that it's eventually they're going to charge $2 [TS]

00:16:13   user so one I think in a million is extremely conservative I I would bet you [TS]

00:16:21   and I miss that within five years what's out will have many more users and [TS]

00:16:27   Facebook the product itself so that will raise the price that much more to if you [TS]

00:16:35   were to ask me in isolates of the three really big messaging players are [TS]

00:16:39   whatsapp line out of Japan and we check in China if you were to ask me on a [TS]

00:16:45   stand-alone basis which of those companies worth the most I would have [TS]

00:16:49   trouble putting what's ahead because they don't have any real monetization [TS]

00:16:53   strategy your wares live we had a very developed strategies they're actually [TS]

00:16:59   really interesting from business respective an honest question is how big [TS]

00:17:04   a dummy I am so we chat WEC 880 is the seat of the last ok so that line as [TS]

00:17:15   Japan why is japan but but line is lined dominates here in Taiwan it dominates [TS]

00:17:20   Japan Thailand then they're fighting it out and be dog it's definitely a Asian [TS]

00:17:27   sort of phenomenon but the other point being what yes you're right from looking [TS]

00:17:34   at it from a pure making money on it it's not totally clear but this is why [TS]

00:17:41   it's so interesting that Facebook bought them number one like Facebook the [TS]

00:17:46   company doesn't need we tend to monetize right away like Facebook is like [TS]

00:17:50   cleaning up right now when it comes to modernization like they're just crushing [TS]

00:17:54   it like quarter by quarter light glass for the last year so they can if they [TS]

00:17:58   like if they don't make a dime and we can reach out like they're going to be [TS]

00:18:02   OK because their main product is doing so well for the deficit for fiscal years [TS]

00:18:06   so they've got they've got some funny money because their stock there after [TS]

00:18:10   their IPO is [TS]

00:18:11   really high investors are very keen on Facebook at last I checked their PE [TS]

00:18:15   ratio somewhere around a hundred and ten right and it is honestly it's pretty [TS]

00:18:22   justified given the like the rate of growth that the revenue has right now [TS]

00:18:27   because they have they do have real revenue and profits and and its I would [TS]

00:18:33   say it's probably probably be there in line or or exceeding expectations and [TS]

00:18:39   not expectations like the stupid thing we do every freakin quarter with with [TS]

00:18:44   Apple where it's you know these quarter by quarter estimate but just the [TS]

00:18:49   ballpark you know the longer term thinking like before even the IPO house [TS]

00:18:55   Facebook gonna make money and it's you know there was you know what they could [TS]

00:18:59   do this and this and they could you know really you know they could bring in so [TS]

00:19:03   much advertising per quarter per user and they're they're they're doing that [TS]

00:19:08   you're right there they're in there beating it like they're certainly be my [TS]

00:19:13   suggestions for whatever it's worth [TS]

00:19:15   and so given that like presuming that they're they're fine as a business use a [TS]

00:19:21   late then why why even bother with this white why you know throw in nineteen [TS]

00:19:24   billion dollars in your main business is doing fine with the big question is like [TS]

00:19:29   three or four years down the road win if I'm right [TS]

00:19:33   messaging is the dominant sort of interaction model and Facebook has [TS]

00:19:38   tapped out kind of their growth then what at that point we chat or whatsapp [TS]

00:19:43   is gonna cost is worth 100 billion dollars two hundred billion dollars like [TS]

00:19:48   if you don't exactly in nineteen billion is on the edge of Bible as it is so if [TS]

00:19:55   they were ever going to get into this space they tried they tried with [TS]

00:19:58   messenger and like the rally [TS]

00:20:00   except for the us- message is getting its ranking all over the world like this [TS]

00:20:06   was the last chance to buy in into into into this area I think in that context [TS]

00:20:12   its option value [TS]

00:20:14   you but I was forbes who reported that last year [TS]

00:20:22   whatsapp had twenty million dollars in revenue ya know if they're not buying [TS]

00:20:27   what's out for their current business model like they're they're buying what's [TS]

00:20:31   out for one the users and to the option value of messaging being the dominant [TS]

00:20:36   form of social networking the future which i happen to subscribe to and [TS]

00:20:40   believe is the case and it is like wine in which a part crushing it also from [TS]

00:20:45   opposition standpoint so it it is definitely possible to monetize this way [TS]

00:20:50   they don't do it be a display ads I did do it through like the stickers is a [TS]

00:20:55   thing it's only like twenty percent of revenue but they do it it's a [TS]

00:20:58   fascinating life direct marketing channel I will go to the mat on stickers [TS]

00:21:03   alright let's go to the mat and tsunami take a break [TS]

00:21:06   me take a break and and talk about her first sponsor we had them before but [TS]

00:21:13   it's been a while I'm happy to welcome back as a sponsor the show [TS]

00:21:17   Warby Parker eyewear be partners in new concept in I we're really it's just a [TS]

00:21:22   basic disruption story where there is one of the founders was was traveling [TS]

00:21:27   away from home [TS]

00:21:28   his glasses broke out again fixed and how to get a new pair like six or seven [TS]

00:21:33   hundred dollars for a new pair of eyeglasses stupid this should not cost [TS]

00:21:37   this much you should have to pay $300 for a new pair of eyeglasses just to get [TS]

00:21:43   a pair that looks good so you know what they did [TS]

00:21:46   started a business where they make vintage inspired contemporary stylish [TS]

00:21:53   eyeglasses that start at $95 and it's no bullshit it's none of this stuff we have [TS]

00:22:02   to pay extra money to get to get the good lenses to get the anti glare [TS]

00:22:08   coating and stuff I those who doesn't want that everybody wants it the regular [TS]

00:22:12   glasses from Warby Parker come with everything you need and they have an [TS]

00:22:18   amazing system for how to get him because you think what you want to buy [TS]

00:22:23   glasses over the Internet [TS]

00:22:24   they have a thing called the home trying program go to the website you pick five [TS]

00:22:31   pairs that you are interested in Dell ship you the empty frames to your house [TS]

00:22:39   and its beautiful packaging really nice you try them on [TS]

00:22:44   like taking pictures showed your friends later let your spouse tell you which one [TS]

00:22:50   looks best on you send them back and you'll get the one they want back to [TS]

00:22:56   your house super easy you get five pairs to try at home of your choice pick the [TS]

00:23:03   one you like shit my back and I'll send you the ones you picked out and here's [TS]

00:23:09   the thing they have a great great charity program almost a billion people [TS]

00:23:15   worldwide lack access to prescription glasses prescription lenses for glasses [TS]

00:23:22   that's fifteen percent of the global population that cannot effectively [TS]

00:23:27   worker learn because they can't see right Warby Parker has partnered with [TS]

00:23:33   nonprofits around the world I one of them is called visions brain and they [TS]

00:23:38   ensure that for every pair of glasses at Warby Parker cells is distributed to [TS]

00:23:44   someone in need around the world which is amazing so you get you save money on [TS]

00:23:49   stylist prescription glasses get a great deal and why you do that you're also [TS]

00:23:55   helping somebody else around the world get a pair of eyeglasses can't recommend [TS]

00:24:01   him highly enough everybody I know who uses them love them really cool stuff [TS]

00:24:07   they also have really cool stuff for sizing using your webcam just amazing [TS]

00:24:13   amazing stuff really cool technology and really really disruptive to a a business [TS]

00:24:19   that was ripe for disruption so where do you go to find out more go to Warby [TS]

00:24:23   Parker dot com slash the talk-show Warby Parker dot com slash the talk show and [TS]

00:24:31   they'll know you came from the show and a special deal for you so my thanks to [TS]

00:24:37   work apart [TS]

00:24:37   go check them out if you need glasses sunglasses too so if you need sunglasses [TS]

00:24:41   go check them out to all rights stickers I am the typical American with all these [TS]

00:24:51   messaging apps platform social networks where I i've heard of them but I don't [TS]

00:24:58   really know anything about him and I've heard about stickers but mostly from [TS]

00:25:02   path which I don't really use but while I'm path path ripped it off I mean [TS]

00:25:08   bottom line which is the first one who first time to get you to get why you can [TS]

00:25:15   you can add me if you want and I will inundate you with stickers and then [TS]

00:25:18   you're probably block me so stickers is one like they're amazingly expressive [TS]

00:25:28   like I mean I was the emoticons are our thing and you can have opinions about [TS]

00:25:32   them but like there's there's just things you can express with the sticker [TS]

00:25:37   that you can express any other way weather be like you know some beers like [TS]

00:25:41   some like sadness disappointment like it honestly that thing I know I sound [TS]

00:25:45   ridiculous saying it but unless you've actually tried it you can't you can't [TS]

00:25:50   get it [TS]

00:25:51   mode Modi had its like what's the difference between Lake reading [TS]

00:26:01   something and seeing a picture of a picture in seeing a movie like you just [TS]

00:26:06   it's that much more expressive there so much more variety than 200 totally [TS]

00:26:13   totally I mean get you get the it's not like honestly I got I'm gonna not even [TS]

00:26:23   do it justice like I would encourage everyone who doesn't like this go down [TS]

00:26:28   the line [TS]

00:26:29   get your significant other or one friend to do it and just like mess around for a [TS]

00:26:33   little bit I use it for a week to one person and and then you can come back [TS]

00:26:39   and say I'm an idiot and but I would wager that some you will definitely will [TS]

00:26:45   definitely see what I'm talking about it was into a wider particulars like [TS]

00:26:50   they've [TS]

00:26:51   they just don't think they all make their money and stickers is only like [TS]

00:26:55   twenty percent of these companies rose actually just throwing it out there but [TS]

00:27:00   like wine is really made a thing out of like some of their main characters are [TS]

00:27:05   four main characters there's like so many characters and it's like a whole [TS]

00:27:08   thing like you know like Hello Kitty is like this like skirt up on the world and [TS]

00:27:13   is everywhere and they're all types of brand stuff like wine is in japan is [TS]

00:27:17   already like that there are there was an exhibition actually here in Taiwan like [TS]

00:27:22   about line characters art pieces and all this sort of stuff like it's it's it's [TS]

00:27:28   really interesting what they're doing with it [TS]

00:27:30   to being cut this whole this whole kind of segment of of you know it's simply a [TS]

00:27:37   Japanese thing but it's it's it's something it is hard to get unless you [TS]

00:27:42   actually try it by forty can be so much more expressive and so much more fast [TS]

00:27:47   and what you want to say right up with sticker really hit the spot so so my [TS]

00:27:51   wife is a pretty good mojo higher emoji I you know I'm terrible words I think [TS]

00:28:02   it's a mode [TS]

00:28:03   whatever I did I remember it at the live talk show it easy because there is a bit [TS]

00:28:12   that Scott Simpson Road and Maryland man in and Family Support Command [TS]

00:28:19   Performance where they were they were reading a dialogue back and forth that [TS]

00:28:24   was communicated entirely in in OJ no emoji emoji wikipedia says no i said im [TS]

00:28:32   then I must have said Amodei on stage and Scott Simpson [TS]

00:28:38   to speak Japanese and he liked lived there for a couple of years so it's the [TS]

00:28:44   point of him being there was the view from my pronunciation disability now but [TS]

00:28:56   from for example my wife is very funny with them you know and shoot you know [TS]

00:29:03   you're talking about things like where I will see you know till text me in if I'm [TS]

00:29:08   you know out with a couple of other dad coached little league or something and I [TS]

00:29:13   say meetings running late and should just text me you know [TS]

00:29:19   couple of beers emoji as in as if you know yeah I know what you're doing [TS]

00:29:25   yeah right and just have to seining should just text me the beers or [TS]

00:29:29   something like that she would go nuts with the beer stickers in enlightened [TS]

00:29:35   they come they come by default which is great so here's here's here's the the [TS]

00:29:39   main testimony that I have so I the one person I've been trying to convince to [TS]

00:29:42   line is you know the mysterious no one knows who is Casey list who likes to [TS]

00:29:49   brag about his G you know capabilities on Twitter [TS]

00:29:54   with you i think he likes to think that some sort of Master I guess in a world [TS]

00:30:03   of the living world mark fuhrman John Siracusa got a claim some sort of high [TS]

00:30:06   ground so yeah I finally got him to sign up for a while and after resisting and [TS]

00:30:14   within like five minutes he told they got it [TS]

00:30:19   post on Twitter I find that we like okay I'll get you had to try it now I get it [TS]

00:30:25   it's it's awesome so it's one of those things you just gotta try but like I [TS]

00:30:31   said that that's it's it's only one piece of the puzzle for for these ads [TS]

00:30:36   also get the stickers think so also is it like you who can add new stickers she [TS]

00:30:47   like one of the problems if you are a problem but one of the obvious [TS]

00:30:52   deficiencies to emoji is Modi is standardized character set it so you [TS]

00:30:59   know I don't think I guess it's officially party in a coat now I don't [TS]

00:31:02   know but it it's all predefined right where there's you know there's a code [TS]

00:31:06   mark you know and you know it's a piece of code the code maps to smiling pile of [TS]

00:31:14   poo I don't like how did you make it through a committee I don't know but [TS]

00:31:20   then there is no privacy of days all the beers Ryan and then there's you know one [TS]

00:31:25   of them is like maps to barber shop pole right you know now that it's it's you [TS]

00:31:34   don't have a choice though like so if you were writing and perhaps that was [TS]

00:31:37   going to you know or like when Apple decided to embrace emoji [TS]

00:31:43   system wide and they made us want they don't get to pick those things they say [TS]

00:31:47   was you know they just drew a picture for each of those code points and [TS]

00:31:55   whereas with stickers and if it's you know line has its own proprietary [TS]

00:31:59   stickers so lines stickers line on right right as a super is actually a really [TS]

00:32:08   smart questions that starts to get some of the other ways that they that they [TS]

00:32:13   make money so you comes with some presets they're always releasing an [TS]

00:32:17   extra recess like Christmas lot like a setup like Christmas ones whatever but [TS]

00:32:21   then there's also sticker sets packs for self right 199 and they'll be dramatic [TS]

00:32:28   sometimes they'll be like there's a Mickey Mouse said there's a health care [TS]

00:32:31   he said there's a Garfield said justice the us-led ones there's a whole ton of [TS]

00:32:36   them for all these like all these Asian anime series like and so those are very [TS]

00:32:42   very popular and they're officially officially licensed and so that that's [TS]

00:32:48   where they make the direct money one is really interesting is brands like say [TS]

00:32:54   711 or Starbucks they will they will do is they pay line like [TS]

00:33:03   $50,000 $100,000 depend depending on the market [TS]

00:33:07   japan's Prime the most expensive one and then line will in conjunction to create [TS]

00:33:12   a set of stickers that are free and and so but it works two ways one like so [TS]

00:33:18   basically you follow this Starbucks account online then you get the sticker [TS]

00:33:22   pack for free so why is kinda like making money on both sides 01 Starbucks [TS]

00:33:27   is paying them for the right to have the stickers available in the store to [TS]

00:33:32   Starbucks gets the benefit of people like sprained Starbucks [TS]

00:33:36   stickers all over the place and then three Starbucks now has this direct [TS]

00:33:41   channel two of his customers because they they willingly followed start what [TS]

00:33:46   happens when you follow them is it like following a company on Twitter you get [TS]

00:33:51   posts from a well you can they can send it they can send it to you they can send [TS]

00:33:57   a coupon to you they can send you do all sorts of stuff but it's not it's not [TS]

00:34:01   like a streaming all these are organized by you know by the person who follow and [TS]

00:34:06   you can you can block them so you can download pocket but you get to kiss you [TS]

00:34:10   block him [TS]

00:34:11   yeah you can but they all expire [TS]

00:34:14   all the free ones always expire the stickers oh yeah what happens if you go [TS]

00:34:18   back to an old message does the expired stickers still show up yet but you can't [TS]

00:34:24   use it anymore right so far but wants to keep the stickers in the store then [TS]

00:34:29   they're paying up again so that's that's that's about another 20 percent of the [TS]

00:34:34   revenue is [TS]

00:34:36   enterprises and companies paying for paying for the right do I get on the [TS]

00:34:41   platform and be available to customers and stickers is one two main ways they [TS]

00:34:46   they do that the rest of it is like there's like I wanna say 40 but then [TS]

00:34:53   Arabia lot bigger than that like line games and apps and there's a whole [TS]

00:34:57   universe of apps which dumont eyes through in-app purchase and because [TS]

00:35:05   because he's yeah there's a ton of wine games and they're all these super simple [TS]

00:35:11   life happy birds have been a great fit for a game like their these simple you [TS]

00:35:15   don't you put you can play that [TS]

00:35:16   in the iPhone app that can you know so they're all separate apps ok so if you [TS]

00:35:21   go into the aging store like go to publisher in like my neighbor which is [TS]

00:35:24   like the company that owns line there's a ton of apps and and in these after the [TS]

00:35:31   classic like in-app purchase money-makers whatever you may think of [TS]

00:35:36   them and but the thing is is because they own the app that people spend the [TS]

00:35:45   vast majority of their time in and whenever there's that little badge this [TS]

00:35:48   message you're gonna go to it and occasionally there's a message there [TS]

00:35:52   that says oh check out our new game or get these stickers if you download our [TS]

00:35:57   game which is toys and they do and they don't the game and now you're playing [TS]

00:36:01   the game and then you don't you only need a small percentage to get converted [TS]

00:36:04   and then you're making money off of them and so like on iOS you you would if you [TS]

00:36:10   download their game does the game prompt you to sign in with your line account [TS]

00:36:15   yeah it's like like somea like Facebook paper like you already had the Facebook [TS]

00:36:19   app installed like you're automatically signed in [TS]

00:36:21   well that's a little different though because Facebook is is baked into the [TS]

00:36:24   system that that's true but what it does is a few quick sign in little flip over [TS]

00:36:33   to the light out and write it's like i don't know how what what sort of black [TS]

00:36:41   magic they're doing but you click like authorized its which uses when those of [TS]

00:36:45   the URL code to switch the light switches right back right but you're [TS]

00:36:49   already signed into the line you don't have to be username password again but [TS]

00:36:54   you do have to go to the lineup for you are signed in and authorizes a lot of [TS]

00:36:58   writer apps yet know exactly still and so what's interesting is a good what's [TS]

00:37:05   the hardest thing about making money with the hardest thing about making [TS]

00:37:09   money right now for as far as an app maker goals its discovery right search [TS]

00:37:13   in research it sucks on his hard to market your app like and line has this [TS]

00:37:19   like unbelievably efficient and powerful marketing channel directly to customers [TS]

00:37:25   and right now there [TS]

00:37:27   and so if you're a developer you could go into the App Store and I do your best [TS]

00:37:32   to get a hit game and then you get a quick seventy percent of the revenue or [TS]

00:37:36   you could partner with line give thirty percent to Apple 20% to line and yeah [TS]

00:37:42   you're making less for every purchase by the way more volume because you have [TS]

00:37:47   this massive distribution channel and that's why that's why messaging is such [TS]

00:37:51   a big deal like it is it is the killer distribution channel on these mobile [TS]

00:37:56   phones [TS]

00:37:57   you know where there isn't searched like there is on the desktop or on the mobile [TS]

00:38:02   web and that's why they're really really big deal so line and we chat or both [TS]

00:38:07   still independent which has owned by Tencent [TS]

00:38:11   the huge Chinese Internet company so it's interesting 'cause $0.10 $0.10 [TS]

00:38:17   biggest app was always been so cue cue is instant messaging for the desktop I [TS]

00:38:24   think AOL but unlike AOL and MSN [TS]

00:38:30   you also have all these added services we're so everyone had accused you count [TS]

00:38:36   that was the wedding China but there is tons of ways to make money on top of [TS]

00:38:40   that so actually live in which had almost copying the queue Q model and [TS]

00:38:45   what's interesting about all this is like there's it's there's so much more [TS]

00:38:50   advanced and so much more innovation in this area in asia than there is in the [TS]

00:38:55   USA in like it was just the amusing to find people kind of blown away by [TS]

00:38:59   messaging and I think once people start to realize these business models that [TS]

00:39:03   are emerging around messaging like people are gonna be that much like ones [TS]

00:39:07   that I feel this year is gonna blow people's socks off once they go for you [TS]

00:39:11   know rumor Westphal was ten billion after this its price maybe 15 and it's [TS]

00:39:20   it's it works very well it's very interesting it's fully mobile first and [TS]

00:39:26   like if you're objectively artists and you say where the most important [TS]

00:39:31   technology companies in the world like within a few years you're going to have [TS]

00:39:36   to put line and we chat [TS]

00:39:38   in that conversation is this line have anything does it have a web or desktop [TS]

00:39:45   interface they do this they they have desktop clients will for Windows and Mac [TS]

00:39:50   which is kind of nice actually what that does in and so actually that's when the [TS]

00:39:54   reasons I don't like using whatsapp because I hate having to have my way pay [TS]

00:39:59   attention to my phone and whatsapp is literally not really mobile only its [TS]

00:40:06   phone only i mean they want what they wanted on one phone only write the only [TS]

00:40:12   identification is your phone number right whereas with line you can you can [TS]

00:40:16   add a user name to your account it starts with the phone number and so that [TS]

00:40:21   allows you have different clients it has like calling so you can call quite quiet [TS]

00:40:27   like video like it has a whole set of communications and actually I wanted to [TS]

00:40:35   talk about that that's an angle of whatsapp that to me I suppose that they [TS]

00:40:39   could pivot at some point and have a mechanism where if you have an existing [TS]

00:40:44   account that is like you said tied exclusively to one and only one phone [TS]

00:40:49   number that if they wanted to expand from phones to to you know any mobile [TS]

00:40:55   device or have a desktop client or something that they could have a way to [TS]

00:40:59   make an account you know there's got to be some way that you could expand your [TS]

00:41:03   account you can login just type your phone number and a password or something [TS]

00:41:07   right he knows that it's totally doable its [TS]

00:41:11   or maybe even without a password what they could do I was thinking about this [TS]

00:41:14   is it seems a good puzzle is you could you could put your phone number in and [TS]

00:41:21   then they would message you on your phone and authorized on the phone and [TS]

00:41:26   say hey somebody's trying to log in [TS]

00:41:30   authorize it like an authorization token or something like that yeah totally but [TS]

00:41:36   they don't there are literally phone only [TS]

00:41:40   up their phone only and was hitting two is not only but they don't have a [TS]

00:41:45   a voice capability whereas the other ones do you can't call someone through [TS]

00:41:51   through what's out its messaging and in which is I get how that appeals to [TS]

00:41:57   people especially from a theoretical standpoint because it so it simplifies [TS]

00:42:01   focused as someone who I like to think subscribes to that I vastly prefer using [TS]

00:42:08   using line over or what's up I get simplicity is good until it's too simple [TS]

00:42:14   enough and everything that you wanted to do its it is I have to say that in sign [TS]

00:42:18   up for it until this week broke heard of whatsapp but then once I had to check it [TS]

00:42:23   out so I downloaded it and it is a truly no-brainer sign-up process for anybody [TS]

00:42:32   who hasn't tried it you download the app is now free sometimes it was $0.99 [TS]

00:42:37   it's free it's reading about and what they did was they felt like their growth [TS]

00:42:43   was too fast they just change the outcome freedom though still interesting [TS]

00:42:47   and that that alone slowed the growth wasn't because I wanted the money from [TS]

00:42:53   $0.99 they just wanted to say you know maintainer you launch the app and they [TS]

00:43:01   say what's your phone number so they don't know you're funny because apps on [TS]

00:43:05   iOS can't just read you know that actually private information you type in [TS]

00:43:14   your phone number they send you an SMS with a code and the URL you can either [TS]

00:43:21   enter the code manually or you can just type the URL and it goes to the web and [TS]

00:43:27   it bounces back to the app and its ok this you know personal actually owns [TS]

00:43:31   this phone number [TS]

00:43:32   authorised it you're in and then that's it now people can message you anybody [TS]

00:43:37   knows your phone number can message you on what ya it's it's it's really smart [TS]

00:43:41   was it with with other interesting factoid perspective is their biggest [TS]

00:43:47   cost is SMS messages right I saw that I saw that yeah because they said they [TS]

00:43:52   have to pay to send no energy the only SMS messages they send are those sign up [TS]

00:43:58   authorization idea how much how massive their growth is right it's not like [TS]

00:44:04   they're sending its not like their SMS costs are high because they're sending [TS]

00:44:08   some of the actual messages by SMS it's just the signup authorization and it was [TS]

00:44:16   I saw that at one point it was like five hundred thousand dollars a month might [TS]

00:44:19   be higher because in some of the countries around the world it's like [TS]

00:44:24   just crazy how much bulk SMS costs that's your thing that's interesting [TS]

00:44:31   about this is you know ten fifteen years ago in this weather us' is behind here [TS]

00:44:39   ten fifteen years ago it was really expensive to call people in most [TS]

00:44:43   countries from a mobile phone or to a mobile phone way there is different [TS]

00:44:48   rates depending for calling a mobile phone or if you are calling a a landline [TS]

00:44:54   and so what happened was it was relatively cheaper to message messaging [TS]

00:44:59   became a big thing in the USA in the meantime I don't have these bucket plans [TS]

00:45:04   where your your price per call too much in a month was basically free and so is [TS]

00:45:13   always been more voice centric overtime SMS is caught up in what happened you [TS]

00:45:19   SMS became all basically you pay 20 bucks a month to get unlimited SMS in [TS]

00:45:26   the meantime the rest of the world you're still paying for SMS it was less [TS]

00:45:30   than talking but when you had an outcome along that meat SMS totally free again [TS]

00:45:36   it was very attractive because you were still paying for SMS where's the USF SMS [TS]

00:45:40   is already free the attraction of a free app is obviously west so it's like how [TS]

00:45:47   these kinda like dine at USF one knows the US carrier market is kind of weird [TS]

00:45:52   and it's it's played out even through this deal where whatsapp don't really [TS]

00:45:59   have any penetration the us- yet was dominated all over the world because of [TS]

00:46:04   my car messed up [TS]

00:46:06   carrier system yeah [TS]

00:46:08   me take a break and I want to come back to talk to you about my message this how [TS]

00:46:13   that fits into this but I me take a break and thank our second sponsor our [TS]

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00:48:13   here's my question in the USU like you said these apps are nowhere near as big [TS]

00:48:18   as they seem to be elsewhere [TS]

00:48:20   seems like most messaging is either SMS or for me at least its almost entirely i [TS]

00:48:29   message it's it is really rare for me to get a green message in in messages I [TS]

00:48:36   think I have one person who I regularly text who should Android phone so it [TS]

00:48:43   turns up green Google now now it's my friendly ones laundromat the bar so [TS]

00:48:54   we're keeping in touch with exactly and that's not because it's half because [TS]

00:49:01   professionally this Apple Center bubble and so all of my professional work [TS]

00:49:08   related messaging you know to to Dave whiskas Brent you know related or [TS]

00:49:19   anybody on texting with daring fireball related well yeah obviously a lot of [TS]

00:49:23   them are gonna use iOS devices or all of them are but even stupid things things [TS]

00:49:29   that you wouldn't think I mean it just it just shows how popular the iPhone is [TS]

00:49:33   and you know the circles I mean like my my sister uses a knife i no i didnt tell [TS]

00:49:42   her to buy an iPhone [TS]

00:49:43   she has the other coaches in my son's little league baseball little league [TS]

00:49:49   they just happened he'll have a lot of them former BlackBerry users it seems [TS]

00:50:01   like to me you know in the wake of those what's out deal that Apple's [TS]

00:50:09   russians developing I message has gone sort of unremarked upon because I think [TS]

00:50:14   I messages gotta be up there in terms of you know number of user active users on [TS]

00:50:20   a messaging platform it just stands out because it's you know it it in bbm are [TS]

00:50:28   you know oddballs because their proprietary 21 companies devices yet why [TS]

00:50:36   bBM is now cross platform but I know I agree I mean it's it's it is pressure [TS]

00:50:42   it's a it's a very valuable it's a valuable service you i think it's a new [TS]

00:50:52   is a great example of how Apple uses services to make their devices more [TS]

00:50:57   valuable so for example just one way to look at it as I don't think I believe in [TS]

00:51:01   never once even considered for a moment [TS]

00:51:05   purchasing whatsapp because they already have they have exactly what they want [TS]

00:51:08   and need which is their own messaging platform for their just for their own [TS]

00:51:13   devices which is all they want they already have right now they're they're [TS]

00:51:17   not interested in making it easier you know to easier than be on the App Store [TS]

00:51:24   to communicate with different manufacturers like that silly no I mean [TS]

00:51:31   I think Apple from a year this is the key thing done without the services that [TS]

00:51:38   they exist to make Apple devices more attractive so they can charge a higher [TS]

00:51:43   price and i misses a great example of that I think Apple in general has no [TS]

00:51:50   photostream i think is really interesting I would love to get some [TS]

00:51:54   numbers I'm photostream like how many people are using it I don't be Usui is [TS]

00:51:59   is as great as it should be but it's an amazing service you know that's how we [TS]

00:52:05   keep my you know my parents in the loop with the kids and stuff like that and [TS]

00:52:10   you know I want to feel like [TS]

00:52:14   I i understand why Apple didn't maps you know it it's so it's so critical but I [TS]

00:52:19   was Apple's services energy in general or just totally focused on this like [TS]

00:52:25   making their devices like such a pleasure to own like photostream does [TS]

00:52:31   like iMessage does I wish like the iCloud they like you should have liked [TS]

00:52:37   everything on and I devices iPad or an iPhone that should be backed up for free [TS]

00:52:43   awake yet you have these stupid making reminders and you came in by enough [TS]

00:52:49   backup for all the devices that you have that's where I would love to see Apple [TS]

00:52:55   really focus their focus their energies like just make it if you buy it I was [TS]

00:53:00   device all the stuff taken care of your good to go and I agree it's not value [TS]

00:53:06   like no one has a number on the icon which is i misses worth it in the end of [TS]

00:53:10   whatsapp you could make an argument is worth many billions of dollars I would [TS]

00:53:14   love to know the active number of iMessage users we kind of have a rough [TS]

00:53:23   estimate of active iOS users [TS]

00:53:28   question have you have you canceled your your SMS part of your care package now [TS]

00:53:33   because I still need to get like I said I need to get us a message from helps [TS]

00:53:38   him on tibet [TS]

00:53:39   that'll be really interesting like I don't think it makes sense on our [TS]

00:53:44   Verizon shared family III my understanding of the way it works it [TS]

00:53:48   doesn't make sense to cancel I don't even know if we could cancel SMS [TS]

00:53:51   separately yeah I mean we don't we don't we certainly have a minimal I we don't [TS]

00:53:58   know personally don't add anything we don't need to know and even things like [TS]

00:54:02   you know my son is 10 he doesn't text to light yet you know I think he is on the [TS]

00:54:09   cusp I suspect that like the girls in the fourth grade our way into it the way [TS]

00:54:16   the girls socialized so much faster than boys but you know he'll text his [TS]

00:54:23   grandparents you know a little bit but you know that's all I message that I [TS]

00:54:31   think about it I is very valuable but i i i wonder I'm just gonna throw ballpark [TS]

00:54:37   number I think there's got to be at least a hundred million users oh yeah no [TS]

00:54:43   i i think i think easily right and maybe 200 million I think the question is not [TS]

00:54:49   how many users there are it's how many people prefer an iOS device because as i [TS]

00:54:58   misses capabilities I mean I i've heard anecdotes of you know like in highschool [TS]

00:55:03   circle like I messages the way to communicate and like if you don't if you [TS]

00:55:08   don't have the blue bubble like your excluded or whatever right you know I [TS]

00:55:12   think that's that's definitely possible and that stuff you know a cruise that [TS]

00:55:16   accrues that Cruz 22 what it means to be in a bull owner for better or worse an [TS]

00:55:22   agreement the green ones are gross it's a weird kind of green I don't know I [TS]

00:55:29   think it kind of is iced I've said this before I think one of the [TS]

00:55:33   its seems like a stupid thing to dwell upon with the changes in Iowa 7 the most [TS]

00:55:39   surprising almost surprising thing in Iowa 72 means that they didn't change [TS]

00:55:42   the icon for the messages out to a blue bubble instead of the green bubble that [TS]

00:55:48   they've kept it [TS]

00:55:49   they've kept it phone colored green which to me implies SMS right that the [TS]

00:55:55   reason all along that messages was the same color green as phone is it was the [TS]

00:56:01   until I message came along it was you know it was the way that SMS and your [TS]

00:56:07   phone conversations were you know not data voice and SMS right there you got [TS]

00:56:16   three things you know with your phone accounted phone you get voice calls you [TS]

00:56:22   get SMS and you get data and you know whats app is a perfect example we're not [TS]

00:56:28   just on iOS devices but everything around the world everything is moving to [TS]

00:56:32   data and messaging is moving to data faster than voice but boy so get there [TS]

00:56:40   to eventually I mean is you know it's nonsense that we're not all you know [TS]

00:56:44   that everything will eventually soon be data I think on iOS it's at the point [TS]

00:56:50   where most iOS users are sending the Blue messages so why I think they should [TS]

00:56:56   make the icon below and make it seem like the green ones are the odd ball now [TS]

00:57:00   I i think i i in principle I agree in reality I I keep all my messages jobs in [TS]

00:57:07   one folder and they're all green except for Facebook Messenger and I can't tell [TS]

00:57:11   you how much have you heard is driving up the wall so that they would be [TS]

00:57:16   probably back from my perspective but here's the thing that I think I think it [TS]

00:57:22   depends on market by market basis the reality is when you started out saying [TS]

00:57:25   the thing that surprised me most but I message like I started working for my [TS]

00:57:30   phone because I don't think I opened the messages out on my phone it's been [TS]

00:57:36   months and that's because all messaging here is his line I have a few friends in [TS]

00:57:43   whatsapp of runs and we chat and the only time I use the masses out his way [TS]

00:57:49   back in the States so i i think thats probably somewhere in the middle it's [TS]

00:57:55   this thing with messaging lee gets its market by market thing like I don't [TS]

00:58:00   think you can win the [TS]

00:58:01   world like Facebook did on the desktop but they'll fight it out on a [TS]

00:58:05   country-by-country [TS]

00:58:06   Apple is in a really good spot in this regard because they own I message and I [TS]

00:58:13   message again I know there's a couple of bugs but I think it's gotten a lot [TS]

00:58:16   better I use it alot from I use it's it's pretty good [TS]

00:58:21   yes there's definitely bug so I i just i I was traveling last weekend and for [TS]

00:58:26   whatever reason never unpacked my iPad and wanted it last night so it had been [TS]

00:58:33   five days since I'd use my iPad and I opened it up and charged it took it out [TS]

00:58:41   charged it in like two hours later to get out and started using it and then I [TS]

00:58:47   want to watch TV after i'd been using iPad and put it down on the coffee table [TS]

00:58:52   I was done with it and then all of a sudden every message i'd had for like [TS]

00:58:57   the last five days started coming in on the iPad and and I was there it was [TS]

00:59:06   weird I mean you know and and that's not right I don't know I mean that's kind of [TS]

00:59:10   cool that it could catch up on those conversations but it's it was annoying [TS]

00:59:16   that it was you know making noise for all messages has a lot of work stuff for [TS]

00:59:25   Best burden so I thought at first I thought Davis was sending me like 40 [TS]

00:59:33   messages all at once at 3 a.m. and I was gonna give them you know what the hell [TS]

00:59:38   are you talking do but then it was you know they were like days old so yeah [TS]

00:59:44   it's not perfect I understand but overall it works pretty well so they've [TS]

00:59:49   got that they have that in their pocket where no matter what they've got a [TS]

00:59:53   message and it's it's pretty solid and it does what they want but number two [TS]

00:59:58   you know with the App Store [TS]

01:00:02   you know there they've got all of these things right so whatsapp is a big thing [TS]

01:00:06   well there's you know what's happe started as an iPhone app and it is still [TS]

01:00:12   actively you know very actively develop [TS]

01:00:14   I found out there's a line now there's all these things have iphone app so you [TS]

01:00:19   know you go to taiwan and everybody nobody uses iMessage everybody's using [TS]

01:00:24   these other services you're a ok on your device you know and that's why I do all [TS]

01:00:30   these apps are is is one of those I know that we should get sidetracked on [TS]

01:00:33   Windows Phone yet but is is this one of those things where Windows Phone is [TS]

01:00:38   lacking some of these ABS they I don't know but there's like a ton of messaging [TS]

01:00:44   apps but for the big ones they they have Windows Phone apps license for now we [TS]

01:00:48   chatted it up as this is this is the thing about Windows Phone know is [TS]

01:00:54   absolute crap the problem with our secondary problem that is easy to get [TS]

01:01:01   lost in promoting the apps that aren't there is that the one that her terror [TS]

01:01:05   are often very rough on the CD working on them are you have a talk about it but [TS]

01:01:11   yeah there there there now but that's a good point and i've i've mentioned that [TS]

01:01:16   point you know ever since Android really first started gaining traction while [TS]

01:01:22   while you know this is circa 2008 2009 in a win win Android was really early [TS]

01:01:29   early stages and you know what's behind in every metric there were fewer Android [TS]

01:01:37   there was only a handful of Android devices released yet there were few in [TS]

01:01:40   number [TS]

01:01:41   absolute way behind in as the App Store started catching up and and you know [TS]

01:01:46   whenever these you know the total number of absence I've the iTunes App Store is [TS]

01:01:51   way higher than Android App Store Google Play or whatever they call it back then [TS]

01:01:55   and I am from the start that's grade but you know if that's the only reason to [TS]

01:02:01   use an iOS device then we should all be using Windows computers because Windows [TS]

01:02:05   always had more apps than Mac the reason we use max is as the absurd better not [TS]

01:02:13   because there's more of them [TS]

01:02:14   you this is such a thing like that is an advantage you know to me that's always [TS]

01:02:18   been the bigger advantage that the Apple the iTunes App Store's had is not just [TS]

01:02:22   the breath but the quality of the top hats [TS]

01:02:26   know it so I i worked so I was a guy I was originally a Windows user a [TS]

01:02:34   systematic my 2004 and then with Microsoft Windows again and to be honest [TS]

01:02:40   I quit Windows seven and then I worked on Windows 8 but we're both like they [TS]

01:02:46   were great operas as I there is actually something that I really quite preferred [TS]

01:02:51   to have you been away for a while and that was how do I actually don't mind [TS]

01:02:56   operates all but the apps are just a disaster and he was like no one of those [TS]

01:03:03   apps but I thought that was exactly like the quality of a quieter I was used on a [TS]

01:03:10   liner the quality of its focus is really pining for but the quality of the apps [TS]

01:03:19   was in my estimation such a stark difference that it it was in daily [TS]

01:03:26   irritant that I i didnt I was having his rough edges that I did enjoy having [TS]

01:03:31   I think that's still the case involves the worst talk shows I want to talk [TS]

01:03:37   about this stuff but i wanna talk about it later [TS]

01:03:39   so let's call that a teaser for the final segment of the show cause I do [TS]

01:03:45   want to talk about Windows Phone in microsoft and Windows and you're exactly [TS]

01:03:51   like it's almost as though you're reading some of my notes prepared for [TS]

01:03:54   the show but I still wanna know by messaging so I message let's agree that [TS]

01:04:01   Apple has you know this what our deal is [TS]

01:04:04   unheralded but it shows that Apple has another sort of billion dollar value [TS]

01:04:10   thing in its pocket even though it is inseparable from the company [TS]

01:04:14   yup bbm I have seen a lot of people point out so like you said it is cross [TS]

01:04:22   platform and they had a plan to make a cross-platform years ago and and years [TS]

01:04:30   ago it was sort of a killer feature of owning a blackberry is that you got free [TS]

01:04:36   messaging you know and mobile messaging and you know I think it's fair to say [TS]

01:04:44   that in hindsight this was one of the main innovations that Blackberry had you [TS]

01:04:49   know more than the device itself but their day they saw the value in mobile [TS]

01:04:54   messaging and that by making it [TS]

01:04:58   unmetered you know compared this and that let people do it freely right you [TS]

01:05:08   didn't have to think about SMS is it such as causing you to send the damn [TS]

01:05:12   thing you know you're the mental costing the person receiving rate it it's like [TS]

01:05:18   when you in the days when SMS costs when everybody use SMS and they cost 10 cents [TS]

01:05:25   whatever it it's a bit rude it feels to just say hey by the way I'm gonna take a [TS]

01:05:32   dime from you because I want to send you this then that says you know can we push [TS]

01:05:37   back dinner happen now right there's a mental cost to that you don't want to [TS]

01:05:40   charge somebody it feels rude so blackberry was way ahead on that and it [TS]

01:05:45   really does actually does not and a unique observation and there's about [TS]

01:05:49   five thousand people who observed the same thing that this whatsapp deal shows [TS]

01:05:54   just how big mistake it was for blackberry not to go cross platform bbm [TS]

01:06:00   report five years ago [TS]

01:06:04   303 probably would have been too too late but for five years ago but this is [TS]

01:06:10   why businesses is hard because the reality is is bbm was a killer feature [TS]

01:06:17   it absolutely drove the adoption of Blackberry phones particularly in [TS]

01:06:22   emerging markets like Indonesia where various still there last football [TS]

01:06:27   old right and the problem is when you're selling your BlackBerry device and [TS]

01:06:31   you're making $150 of profit on that device like it's really like in your [TS]

01:06:39   saying oh it was actually pivot to removing the main differentiation of [TS]

01:06:45   this device that makes it worth buying and give it to this model we can make [TS]

01:06:49   five $10 per user per year and yes over time will be a much bigger business will [TS]

01:06:56   be valued at nineteen billion dollars and our company is on its way to be six [TS]

01:07:01   billion dollars so there's there's this 23 year gap in there where you're [TS]

01:07:05   basically like killing your business for the promise of having a better business [TS]

01:07:10   in the future and that two three-year gap is is for a publicly traded company [TS]

01:07:15   is is untenable your weather is that all of the talk talk to you about me who is [TS]

01:07:21   another time but is like the kind of unfortunate reality of being a publicly [TS]

01:07:28   traded company like and the limitations it puts on you and you know it's it's in [TS]

01:07:36   that's one of the because you it's not just that you have to go to one person [TS]

01:07:40   be at the chairman of the season and get one yes it that you need this consensus [TS]

01:07:46   from a largely are often irrational heard right I you know that you don't [TS]

01:07:56   have no way to get an explicit permission you have to get this [TS]

01:08:00   consensus permission and it's you know if you think a committee of 10 is hard [TS]

01:08:04   to get agreement upon imagine having you know millions of shareholders but it's [TS]

01:08:09   worse than that though because especially intact where we're so much [TS]

01:08:12   compensation is tied into stock your distance analyzing your workforce thing [TS]

01:08:21   with Apple I mean people I mean a big part of Apple's people are absolutely [TS]

01:08:24   believe in the mission and they're there because they think there's no question [TS]

01:08:27   the other thing though is an Apple engineer does not make any more infected [TS]

01:08:32   primerica little bit less than a lot of other places [TS]

01:08:35   but they've done very very well with their stock options over you know before [TS]

01:08:41   the last couple years in that makes up for a lot of misleading ends that makes [TS]

01:08:45   up for a lot of late nights and when that's getting stagnant or going down [TS]

01:08:50   now you're having a retention problem you're having a [TS]

01:08:54   you know people wanting wanting raises like it's it's really the the trouble [TS]

01:09:01   with having a kind of a declining stock price or is this not going up is is a [TS]

01:09:09   lot more problematic than just bad press and and that's i think is letting this [TS]

01:09:17   that final 12 employee issue that is important understand we wonder why Apple [TS]

01:09:22   bothers with this stuff well and strategically it is a lot easier for a [TS]

01:09:28   company who is maybe coming to the end of the line with their previous cash cow [TS]

01:09:37   you know blackberry with with their messaging oriented devices you know [TS]

01:09:45   let's face it Windows Microsoft with PC operating systems applications it's it [TS]

01:09:52   is a lot easier to get buy-in for expanding and doing something new [TS]

01:09:58   compared to disrupting and undercutting [TS]

01:10:02   that cash cow it's it's easier to add on so just easy example Facebook buying [TS]

01:10:09   what's up there not disrupt in facebook Messenger really because what happens is [TS]

01:10:17   bigger than facebook Messenger right and they're not making money you know the [TS]

01:10:20   whole thing is a facebook Messenger never really took off the way that [TS]

01:10:23   Facebook wanted to write their adding on now they've got something they didn't [TS]

01:10:28   have before right they're not screwing with what they already have and screen [TS]

01:10:33   with what you already have sometimes is the right thing to do but that's the [TS]

01:10:36   thing that's hard to get buy-in for it [TS]

01:10:38   it's hard for like you said a public company to do because investors might [TS]

01:10:43   object because they don't see it as they don't see it but they don't care like [TS]

01:10:50   they're they're worried about you know they they will sell your stock invested [TS]

01:10:57   elsewhere right there worried about their solely focused on the return you [TS]

01:11:02   know end of mismatch in incentives right and i think that the time so I'm gonna [TS]

01:11:08   agree with you i don't think I think in theory and in hindsight yeah maybe a [TS]

01:11:14   blackberry had an opportunity with BBM [TS]

01:11:17   to be one of these massive sort of platform agnostic messaging mobile [TS]

01:11:24   messaging platforms but that the time for them to make that happen was a time [TS]

01:11:29   when they they couldn't they couldn't vote they couldn't justify using it as a [TS]

01:11:35   competitive advantage for their devices that it was just too is too compelling [TS]

01:11:40   to say look you want free messaging bunch of the people you know you know in [TS]

01:11:46   Indonesia or wherever you live you know are doing it with blackberries you have [TS]

01:11:51   a blackberry it was this is why remains the like the single most impressive [TS]

01:11:57   thing that Apple's ever done is put iTunes on windows for this exact reason [TS]

01:12:03   because it was basically saying we're giving up the Mac they weren't given the [TS]

01:12:12   map they're giving up on like they were there wasn't a differentiator for the [TS]

01:12:16   Mac right and we're kind of betting on this on this new business there wasn't [TS]

01:12:21   directly the same because they weren't undercutting the map per se but they [TS]

01:12:25   were foregoing is an opportunity out there folks foregoing an opportunity to [TS]

01:12:29   make a Mac more attractive relative to Windows right said I popped up as its [TS]

01:12:34   own individual thing as opposed to a thing that made the Mac better right [TS]

01:12:39   exactly and if the thing with that though is like what made that Hannibal [TS]

01:12:44   in a lot of ways was that it was even though he was the last one to agree to [TS]

01:12:48   it was Steve Jobs doing it [TS]

01:12:50   right and this is one of the things that you get with having a founder is like [TS]

01:12:54   they have a lot more leeway to do these sort of things and this is for Microsoft [TS]

01:12:59   in and you know I I hope this is why bill gates came back is to kind of when [TS]

01:13:08   credibility to some of the hard decisions they need to make because [TS]

01:13:12   there's some there's something that people like a foundry get away with it [TS]

01:13:17   no one else can get away with it let's hold on that that I want to thank our [TS]

01:13:23   third sponsor and our good friends at Backblaze Backblaze is online cloud [TS]

01:13:32   based on throttled back up for your Mac written by former Apple engineer greats [TS]

01:13:40   offer you downloaded for free trial for 15 days [TS]

01:13:44   backs up everything on your Mac everything unless there's something you [TS]

01:13:50   don't want backed up let's say a folder full of huge movies or something like [TS]

01:13:54   that that you don't care of it if it gets back to the movies you know what i [TS]

01:13:58   mean but if there's something big you know I hate this this so they could see [TS]

01:14:05   you in trouble I'm not in trouble you know you can think of exceptions if you [TS]

01:14:10   want you can make exceptions if you want the whole drive backed up the whole [TS]

01:14:13   drive and it just get backed up to the cloud does the initial backup take a [TS]

01:14:19   long time yes actually does because you might have you know gigabytes of stuff [TS]

01:14:24   just let it go it just runs in the background doesn't take up all of your [TS]

01:14:30   band with you can you can control how much it uses and it's super easy just [TS]

01:14:35   goes they have iOS apps you can use once you still have stuff backed up or even [TS]

01:14:40   in the middle of your first backup whatever already does has been backed up [TS]

01:14:44   is there so you're out of the house you want to [TS]

01:14:47   access one of the files on your Mac just open up your back by his apt on your iOS [TS]

01:14:53   device your iPhone there it is all your files once it is backed up changes get [TS]

01:14:59   backed up incrementally unbelievable service sounds too good to be true but [TS]

01:15:05   it really does work it is just great [TS]

01:15:07   it is no brainer don't worry about it [TS]

01:15:11   backup for your Mac $5 a month no add-ons no nonsense it's not like our [TS]

01:15:19   basic account is five bucks but if you want you know the good stuff [TS]

01:15:23   enough storage to actually hold all your stuff to pay more [TS]

01:15:27   know whatever you've gotten your Mac $5 my great great deal and emphasize every [TS]

01:15:37   week when I when these guys sponsor the show the fact that it's offline it is a [TS]

01:15:42   great addition to something like Time Machine or a clone drive by SuperDuper [TS]

01:15:48   that you keep in your house [TS]

01:15:50   offline means that if anything happens you know somebody breaks in your house [TS]

01:15:56   fire some kind of electrical surge burns burns out all your stuff there's [TS]

01:16:04   something out of your house where you're bad everything on your Mac is backed up [TS]

01:16:08   such peace of mind really really great go check them out [TS]

01:16:12   see for yourself back plays dot com slash during fireball they used a code [TS]

01:16:22   during fireball cuz they tie the same campaign to dads they've run during [TS]

01:16:27   viable go check them out I thanks to that you're not if you don't check out [TS]

01:16:33   back please [TS]

01:16:33   no i i picked it up I mean I have a super rigorous disk backup system but [TS]

01:16:43   I've been mean to the online thing for ages did it thanks to this then [TS]

01:16:48   actually waiting but no it was actually a faster than expected to win that said [TS]

01:16:55   I i'm in like a modern country that actually has decent broadband as [TS]

01:16:59   compared to the USS that might be part of it I live in Comcast country I have [TS]

01:17:05   come to see the prototypical guy at the gym who only works his arms and he's got [TS]

01:17:16   a toothpick legs and real big arms thats Comcast comcast has pretty good down but [TS]

01:17:21   his up his apparent skinny legs yeah it's crazy and it's crazy I have i think [TS]

01:17:28   im a hundred down in forty up and I pay like $30 a month or something it's [TS]

01:17:34   ridiculous [TS]

01:17:35   that's alright last thing I want talk about messaging lies and I think also [TS]

01:17:40   largely under talked about this week is Twitter and Twitter has direct messages [TS]

01:17:50   and a while ago I don't know when it was like two years ago somewhere around [TS]

01:17:56   there [TS]

01:17:56   Twitter started downplaying direct messages and on the web interface which [TS]

01:18:01   I know a lot of people a lot of people use for Twitter they they really kind of [TS]

01:18:05   buried it may not even kind of i mean they buried it it it is not there they [TS]

01:18:11   have a lot of stuff you can click right on the homepage indirect messages no [TS]

01:18:14   longer was one of them to go down a little and once you put anything down [TS]

01:18:18   one level higher it is gone from most people I i think there are an awful lot [TS]

01:18:25   of people who who signed up for Twitter know over the last few years who have no [TS]

01:18:31   idea that there's a direct messaging and then a couple months earlier this year [TS]

01:18:36   it's like they kind of you know kind of these weekends and they started [TS]

01:18:46   elevating again in promoting it and you know just for example this dats how you [TS]

01:18:52   you said you haven't looked at my message in awhile that we coordinated [TS]

01:18:55   you know this show be a direct message right we did Twitter DM's [TS]

01:19:01   I do so I would say that for me personally my primary messaging is my [TS]

01:19:08   message for most of the what I would call a mobile message goes through that [TS]

01:19:12   secondarily those Twitter DM's there's a bunch of people who I i message that way [TS]

01:19:19   but I think largely though it's a it's a lost opportunity for Twitter that they [TS]

01:19:24   had an opportunity there and they blew it I know I completely agree it's [TS]

01:19:31   probably the primary thing for me just because being over here and that's the [TS]

01:19:36   main way I i connect to stay in touch with most people in the tech world the [TS]

01:19:42   the property the property trouble for Twitter is exactly what makes her so [TS]

01:19:48   fantastic is exactly what makes it so it's kind of a tough for them to climb [TS]

01:19:55   in that like for me if I would give up every single tech product my way before [TS]

01:20:02   I give a puter like I would use a Windows Phone blackberry like as long as [TS]

01:20:08   long as I still had Twitter like that's how that's how essential it is to my [TS]

01:20:12   wife is involved connected its MGC Taylor often says what's the first and [TS]

01:20:18   when you wake up in the morning was the first appt you go to dinner for four me [TS]

01:20:23   if I post something similar I think my room was line but that's a replaceable [TS]

01:20:30   right there's competitors like there's nothing like Twitter out there and what [TS]

01:20:36   makes it so interesting is good [TS]

01:20:37   twitter is organized by your interest is like what you actually care about its [TS]

01:20:41   not necessarily who you know and you know what they wanna hit as I'm actually [TS]

01:20:46   starting to podcast and it's with someone who I met on Twitter like then [TS]

01:20:51   there's tons of people out like that we have an announcement or just a hint I [TS]

01:20:59   it's called exponent exponent at FM I need to after this job actually finished [TS]

01:21:06   the site finished so blessed [TS]

01:21:09   level reported two episodes actually so that will be to download James Allworth [TS]

01:21:16   so he co-wrote a book with clay Christensen how do you measure life I [TS]

01:21:22   went to Harvard he writes used to write more west now for the Harvard Business [TS]

01:21:27   Review blog but it's about like the intersection of its not just reviewing [TS]

01:21:32   the news that's kinda takin' society like what's the impact of what's [TS]

01:21:36   happening in technology on society as a whole is more the focus so the first [TS]

01:21:42   there will be business up the first episode was all Microsoft and disruption [TS]

01:21:46   the second one was was about things like the what happened in San Francisco with [TS]

01:21:50   the protests as well as some about the Comcast merger with Time Warner and [TS]

01:21:55   things like that so I think it should be pretty interesting I hope we appealing [TS]

01:22:00   to this audience have been hustling to get it done but this is a guy but you're [TS]

01:22:03   saying that the the relevance to Twitter is that this is somebody who your entire [TS]

01:22:07   relationship with them was absolutely like that hehe I I found interesting I [TS]

01:22:13   thought it was I thought he had a interest set that was similar to mines I [TS]

01:22:18   followed him I reached out to him that you follow me in DSM and then through [TS]

01:22:25   that we build relationship we've met a few times now and and now we're now [TS]

01:22:32   we're watching a podcast together and I the trouble ahead with Twitter's it's [TS]

01:22:38   hard to one thing I really try to do it i've I think in advance how by not [TS]

01:22:45   living in the valley and almost all the people I grew up with and now are not [TS]

01:22:53   technically inclined is I feel gives me a good idea of like how normal people [TS]

01:22:59   experienced technology I have a hard time of that was Twitter because it's so [TS]

01:23:05   essential to my existence like it's hard to like get out of it and like see what [TS]

01:23:13   it is to regular people but for me like because you know I think a lot of people [TS]

01:23:21   of Twitter can relate to this I grew up in the Midwest reports guns in I know [TS]

01:23:25   friends are generally inclined I was I was into computers from a pretty early [TS]

01:23:30   age I was following the stuff like and i've lived in lots of interesting places [TS]

01:23:36   and Twitter gives me a chance to have this ongoing conversation with people [TS]

01:23:40   just like me no matter where they are in the world and that's that's that's [TS]

01:23:45   amazing [TS]

01:23:46   the problem is to have that conversation to get from day 0 where you sign in to [TS]

01:23:53   having a a great set of people you follow and stuff like that it's really [TS]

01:23:58   complicated like incredibly complicated it's the warning curve is so high the [TS]

01:24:04   payoff is totally worth it but it's so hard to get people along that path to [TS]

01:24:08   get there at the Johns I also think I think Twitter itself did not in terms of [TS]

01:24:15   messaging I just thought I'd I really feel like internally they they they [TS]

01:24:19   missed it and and I i would judge it mainly by the interface that they [TS]

01:24:24   presented for messaging which was not chat style right its third-party Twitter [TS]

01:24:33   app developers you know like 20 and I know tweet by which I you know they [TS]

01:24:44   represent your DMZ not look like the tweets they don't look like a stream of [TS]

01:24:48   tweets there they look like chat everything about it from you know the [TS]

01:24:54   way that it's reverse chronological instead of chronological they split [TS]

01:24:59   their order it looks like chat bubbles you don't type in a regular tweet [TS]

01:25:05   posting window it's a little chat thing with the send button next to it where is [TS]

01:25:09   triggered self made it just you know for a while I mean I know that it was during [TS]

01:25:15   roots in back in 2007 when Twitter started there it was all based on SMS at [TS]

01:25:20   first or at least they thought it was going to be and so that was that code [TS]

01:25:25   but was indeed RDM I don't even remember D and then the users [TS]

01:25:29   simple you could joke and you could type diem username and jokingly make it seem [TS]

01:25:37   like a mistaken diem or her people with do do you do it do it for real big [TS]

01:25:45   bigger than people attending accidental GM's but you know it's still have was a [TS]

01:25:54   problem even after the the whole typing d thing DSpace username people sent [TS]

01:26:01   accidentally ends right and that was a real problem whereas if I had my [TS]

01:26:05   personal rule is I will never I almost never use the Twitter web interface but [TS]

01:26:09   if I do I will never send a team I only send DM's by tweet but because I know [TS]

01:26:14   I'm a hundred percent sure I'd never make a mistake because the interface is [TS]

01:26:18   different I got your not sending a personal tweet you're sending a message [TS]

01:26:26   even the name they picked the name they pick showed how screwed up their [TS]

01:26:30   interface was because direct messages or if they don't they didn't call them [TS]

01:26:33   direct tweets they call him direct messages now and there's like nothing to [TS]

01:26:41   is like once they realize they're no longer a service like why are direct [TS]

01:26:45   messages still a hundred forty characters only white grape [TS]

01:26:50   what's amazing about Twitter is the relationships I can form around my [TS]

01:26:54   interest as opposed to people who actually no real life was all these [TS]

01:26:57   other services are about real life and the truth is real life matters the most [TS]

01:27:01   like that's that's that's true for the vast majority of people but Twitter [TS]

01:27:06   kinda has the market for knowing people that I'm interested in and they should [TS]

01:27:11   make it as easy as possible to to live in Twitter to never leave the interface [TS]

01:27:20   nothing like yeah they've made message is more accessible but they've had this [TS]

01:27:23   ridiculous limitation sending hyperlinks the rule [TS]

01:27:28   could direct message has been months in reading writing really it's driving [TS]

01:27:32   people away from direct messages so something happen where I've heard that [TS]

01:27:37   it is thick cocks dole own self gotta diem with its spam [TS]

01:27:42   Twitter link in it and he clicked it and I don't know that bad but he was so [TS]

01:27:48   infuriated that he just said shut it down no you know no URLs and direct [TS]

01:27:53   messages into you [TS]

01:27:54   we can get this man out and it's months later and that still screwed up its yeah [TS]

01:28:01   I had a few conversations where like I've actually resorted to like posting a [TS]

01:28:06   text file like Dropbox and license and willing to it because like my only [TS]

01:28:11   relations of them to Twitter and be weird ok I get your like Skype or [TS]

01:28:16   something like a lot of the DMZ I get our people who I know you know I don't [TS]

01:28:20   know in real life but I know on the internet and no you know they're sending [TS]

01:28:24   me links for possible links for daring viable that's the whole reason they sent [TS]

01:28:28   me DMZ links and so every you know it's funny to me to see the different things [TS]

01:28:32   that people will do to get it through alright like I have one guy who's pretty [TS]

01:28:37   good regular contributor in his thing as he'll send it with three slashes HTTP [TS]

01:28:42   colon slash slash slash so it's not clickable I can't click it but I can [TS]

01:28:50   copy and paste it and then just delete the / in the URL bar as you put spaces [TS]

01:28:55   in it I would say i think is probably more annoying yeah because I don't know [TS]

01:29:00   it although it takes me back to like 1994 93 plan any time you had anybody [TS]

01:29:09   send you a URL yet the copy paste go to the browser app based you know and and [TS]

01:29:16   you know didn't take too long for you know IndyMac absent in mid nineties to [TS]

01:29:21   get you know like him it was command click easily on a URL and you can open [TS]

01:29:25   it was a long time since I've had to copy and paste urls Twitter DMS have [TS]

01:29:31   brought me back at it [TS]

01:29:33   it's obviously it kind of blew my mind it really but the fact that it still is [TS]

01:29:38   stuck like that two months later and everybody who uses DMZ bitches about it [TS]

01:29:43   every day just shows that Twitter still doesn't have the heart messaging yeah I [TS]

01:29:48   think it's a lost opportunity for them I agree how many users just what have I [TS]

01:29:57   think they like a hundred million [TS]

01:29:57   think they like a hundred million [TS]

01:30:00   give two hundred and thirty million total drought-like yeah but that's the [TS]

01:30:06   reality is like twitter twitter is and this pains me to say it because it's so [TS]

01:30:13   important to me like there in the most precarious state employees guys like [TS]

01:30:18   they have gone public in there there there you know they had a nice run up in [TS]

01:30:23   their stock price but I'm not sure that was deserved what we would sit you on [TS]

01:30:28   twitter is so interesting because the the potential is massive because they [TS]

01:30:33   know wake knowing what I'm interested in is way more valuable than knowing quite [TS]

01:30:38   know what you can market to me so much more effectively by knowing what I [TS]

01:30:42   actually care about and Twitter knows that the problem is getting people from [TS]

01:30:46   day 0 to a curated following with that gives an accurate representation what [TS]

01:30:52   they're interested in is like devilishly hard and I'm not I still don't know [TS]

01:30:57   they're doing a few if like try going open up in the browser and go to [TS]

01:31:03   twitter.com and like the home pages just like the signer processes yeah I mean [TS]

01:31:10   it's there's a lot of room for improvement I don't think they've said I [TS]

01:31:14   still don't think they've solved the explain to someone who's not on Twitter [TS]

01:31:19   why they should be on Twitter yeah that's a bit of a problem but like OMG [TS]

01:31:24   sealer and I were talking about a few weeks ago there they still they have [TS]

01:31:29   something that is amazing [TS]

01:31:31   which to me is best exemplified by the fact that when people are on TV as [TS]

01:31:37   guests unlike a talk show they show their twitter name or or they show a [TS]

01:31:41   hashtag and the hashtag I know that you know you the one of the weird thing [TS]

01:31:46   about has takes you could use the same hash tag anywhere in that Facebook is [TS]

01:31:49   trying to get people to use has takes to you know and so if I tried to promote [TS]

01:31:55   hashtag daring fireball it would work anywhere where you can type plain text [TS]

01:31:59   because it's not a real metadata fields but when people see how I think they [TS]

01:32:05   think Twitter and I know when you see at monk bent [TS]

01:32:11   you know it to Twitter name right which for anybody is interested is is Ben's [TS]

01:32:19   Twitter handle right [TS]

01:32:20   hey BNT monk bent I guess yes it's [TS]

01:32:26   he yet he is definitely unfortunate encounter the Spanish teacher from you [TS]

01:32:38   let me just take a final break and thank our our last and final last but not [TS]

01:32:46   least our final sponsor and that's a Glu Glu is an Internet Intranet that you [TS]

01:32:54   will actually like it's built with easy to use apps that help you work with your [TS]

01:33:00   teams shared calendars private twitter-like microblogs file sharing and [TS]

01:33:05   more and it's all on their website now they want me to talk to you about [TS]

01:33:11   SharePoint [TS]

01:33:14   group partnered with Osterman research to study the challenges businesses face [TS]

01:33:19   when implementing SharePoint which is internet package from a little company [TS]

01:33:26   in Redmond Washington called Microsoft they build a whole page about it and you [TS]

01:33:32   could see it here [TS]

01:33:33   go to a glue software dot com slash the talk show go there don't know you came [TS]

01:33:39   from the show and they have this whole sort of I want to call it a white paper [TS]

01:33:45   because it's not whitman written in that white paper use language it's like a [TS]

01:33:50   plane plane a real white papers and written English here's the five main [TS]

01:33:55   results that this study should SharePoint doesn't work well on mobile [TS]

01:33:58   that's something that does very well they have responsive web design built [TS]

01:34:04   into all the features of their platform everything you can do on the desktop [TS]

01:34:07   even administering the internet itself you can do from the phone with the [TS]

01:34:12   responsive design they also found that SharePoint is too expensive [TS]

01:34:17   it requires too many people and here's the worst part the most damning part [TS]

01:34:23   that no one answer [TS]

01:34:24   abusing it people end up using the other things to work around all the things [TS]

01:34:28   they don't like about SharePoint so then you need all these third party apps to [TS]

01:34:33   do these things that you could be doing all through check them out and if you [TS]

01:34:40   want to try it this is the most amazing thing this is great it is free to use [TS]

01:34:45   forever with up to 10 people and after that after you if you have a team of [TS]

01:34:50   more than 10 people had very very affordable after that so it better [TS]

01:34:55   got better features it is mobile it is mobile-optimized works great on a [TS]

01:35:00   desktop too and you can try it for free for up to 10 people and then after that [TS]

01:35:08   it's very affordable so go to glue software dot com slash the talk show my [TS]

01:35:14   thanks to all right so I think we've done messaging pretty well and now we [TS]

01:35:20   have just a few minutes we talk about microsoft who you know used to work at [TS]

01:35:25   Microsoft when did you leave I left last summer so I first in 2013 2013 yes [TS]

01:35:33   feels like it's been longer just be like I know you have my started the blog [TS]

01:35:38   while I was still at Microsoft tribe but did you know obviously picked up a lot [TS]

01:35:43   once you left yes perfect I V because like a few weeks later they had the [TS]

01:35:47   reorganization which I wrote about in that that was a couple of traffic in [TS]

01:35:54   bomber last in the Nokia so it's been a very fruitful subject so we were talking [TS]

01:36:00   earlier in the show we had to be hinted at where we're going but that one of the [TS]

01:36:07   obviously a big the biggest problem Microsoft has is that the industry is [TS]

01:36:11   shifting to mobile the whole whatsapp thing and messaging is just one once one [TS]

01:36:19   of many sides [TS]

01:36:23   but everything's moving to mobile I mean that's where all the growth is and that [TS]

01:36:27   is a place where Microsoft has really just utterly failed to get traction at [TS]

01:36:32   all and that it's more one of the things is that it's more than just that they [TS]

01:36:41   don't have apps on Windows Phone but that the apps like you said the apt to [TS]

01:36:46   have just aren't that good and it occurs to me that that situation that's why [TS]

01:36:52   it's this situation that situation is far worse for Microsoft than it was for [TS]

01:36:57   Apple and Mac back say that the nadir of the Mac market share Wisin like 96 97 98 [TS]

01:37:05   is that even though the Mac was overwhelmed and market share was buy [TS]

01:37:09   windows and by the number of apps available [TS]

01:37:14   the Mac still had office and it still had the whole adobe suite and all but [TS]

01:37:21   you know QuarkXPress and freehand and other design apps that were you know [TS]

01:37:28   really important to a lot of Mac users and even if Mac Office was a little bit [TS]

01:37:32   behind the Windows version there was there and the Adobe apps and the design [TS]

01:37:37   apps always were you know parody or or the Mac versions were better and the Mac [TS]

01:37:44   always had throughout that whole time had an amazing indie community that was [TS]

01:37:49   making truly top-notch apps for people who really really cared you know [TS]

01:37:53   companies like bare-bones software with BBEdit panic got started around the mid [TS]

01:37:59   nineties and any yeah I'm me with that shift yet perfect example one now that's [TS]

01:38:06   a little bit later in the nineties because their next step but that still [TS]

01:38:09   like early days of Mac OS 10 Pakistan was you know effectively a new platform [TS]

01:38:14   and in 2001 and 2002 Mac OS 10 was a smaller platform than classic Mac OS I [TS]

01:38:21   forget when was that Mac OS 10 actually had more active users and classic Mac OS [TS]

01:38:26   but it was not until [TS]

01:38:28   2003 or 2004 even and so you know when when Mac OS 10 was getting off the [TS]

01:38:35   ground yet then you had the Army Group you know people like Brent Simmons who I [TS]

01:38:41   work with now so disclaimer but you know net newswire came out in 2002 and was an [TS]

01:38:47   amazing out just an amazing app that really really change the way I view the [TS]

01:38:54   entire internet so they windows did Windows and Windows founders don't have [TS]

01:39:03   anything like that especially Windows Phone yet this is exactly this is why I [TS]

01:39:09   completely agree like the Apple was in way worse financial shape than Microsoft [TS]

01:39:15   is now and then will be for the foreseeable future [TS]

01:39:20   the difference though is a balls was in Apple's control like they just needed to [TS]

01:39:29   make better products and that's exactly what steve Jobs was very good out well [TS]

01:39:35   and then back and he always had some people who are waiting for those [TS]

01:39:38   products that potential no no because they always had that that that bit in [TS]

01:39:46   the UI that bid in the experience that that would always appealed to some [TS]

01:39:51   people [TS]

01:39:52   the problem for Microsoft right now is their problems are out of their control [TS]

01:39:55   their depend on developers that they can't control like they're they're [TS]

01:40:01   develop their pending on consumers by their devices they can't make them buy [TS]

01:40:05   them and that's a that's a much worse position to be because they're like they [TS]

01:40:11   could make literally the best phone on earth in every single dimension and none [TS]

01:40:18   of us would buy it and justify we sell [TS]

01:40:20   Farhad Manjoo had a great column in The Times yesterday saying like reviewing [TS]

01:40:27   the latest Nokia phones have is an amazing phone but I can't recommend it [TS]

01:40:31   because the app situation and they can't change that [TS]

01:40:35   like that's it [TS]

01:40:39   the problem is being a good fast situation actually hurts because nothing [TS]

01:40:44   helps you change what you're doing then like doing your payroll a few weeks [TS]

01:40:50   right the case for Apple yeah there's not too many factors on phone hardware [TS]

01:40:56   design right there's camera quality screen quality battery life and [TS]

01:41:02   performance and storage but stories is easy I mean that's no good quality [TS]

01:41:08   arguably rate and lets and my Nokia definitely has build quality down and [TS]

01:41:15   the camera quality and they definitely have camera quality arguably there [TS]

01:41:19   probably the one that can get you can argue you know you can make it strong [TS]

01:41:23   case is beats the iPhone 5s better at different things but they're both [TS]

01:41:29   excellent right at the top tier camera you know and so like you said you know [TS]

01:41:34   what's left screen and performance and you know I can't judge this new one that [TS]

01:41:38   had reviewed but you know it might have let's just concede that it has leading [TS]

01:41:44   the leading performance good battery life and a great screen that's not [TS]

01:41:50   enough right you can't you don't buy the device you really don't i mean the [TS]

01:41:54   device definitely matters but it's the overall experience in the overall [TS]

01:41:57   experience is is largely about apps yeah it was interesting about this is and I [TS]

01:42:07   made this point in the in the first episode of the new podcast is what [TS]

01:42:17   ultimately brought them back [TS]

01:42:19   made the mecca viable platform getting in like just to be clearly even if [TS]

01:42:24   you're insulting value only c-max so it's easy to think like they're [TS]

01:42:27   dominating the window still dominates in the PC in in like the laptop desktop one [TS]

01:42:34   factor but will be the Mac of viable platform was the web like right because [TS]

01:42:40   all the applications that matter now ran everywhere [TS]

01:42:43   and what's what's interesting for Microsoft is like they have to be the [TS]

01:42:48   ones that are most they should be the ones who are most stressed that the [TS]

01:42:52   mobile web hasn't taken off in a meaningful way from application [TS]

01:42:55   standpoint because that would be their salvation like that and what they should [TS]

01:43:01   be spending their resources on is they should be doing two things and this [TS]

01:43:07   seems so so this will you know that they've they've woken up if you see [TS]

01:43:12   these two things one they need to give up and I give up on the tried and [TS]

01:43:18   rendering engine they do it [TS]

01:43:19   adopt WebKit and quite frankly like Apple could use the help [TS]

01:43:23   like Google's for kids they're going with Microsoft and Apple ought to work [TS]

01:43:30   together on the future of web get because Microsoft cannot afford to be [TS]

01:43:34   clear I is done a lot to be seen as compliant like it's it's not a terrible [TS]

01:43:39   browser awake you think it is but that doesn't matter is not a battle that they [TS]

01:43:45   can afford to fight like they they need to run every website perfectly with all [TS]

01:43:52   not just from standards perspective but also with the WebKit quirks respective [TS]

01:43:56   and then to wake they need to take all these resources are focused on trying to [TS]

01:44:03   prop up their app store in funnel them into like making web apps into something [TS]

01:44:07   that's meaningful because that's the only possible way back in my perspective [TS]

01:44:14   is where web apps actually become so this means more ball and then it doesn't [TS]

01:44:19   matter because I think it's unlikely that I think it's a picture of a good [TS]

01:44:29   point there so I see 293 ways forward one would be to somehow get developer [TS]

01:44:37   traction for Windows Phone apps and i'd I don't see that happen anyway the [TS]

01:44:42   private and I don't see it so I that's one it is possible but i don't realize [TS]

01:44:51   is like the return on investment from improving your Iowa [TS]

01:44:56   up or your Android app is so much better than building a new one it's not just so [TS]

01:45:01   you finished the first to know gonna build a third of the way as in never [TS]

01:45:06   works in their favor to would be what you said would be some sort of way that [TS]

01:45:13   they're like what happened with web apps on the desktop in the nineties through [TS]

01:45:22   the early two thousands like where we're big new things start up or a big news [TS]

01:45:28   service or something was almost always in that era a website you know Facebook [TS]

01:45:35   as a prison fine example of a TV you know later amid 2002 what was Facebook [TS]

01:45:41   it was a website it was a thing we went to your browser and type facebook.com [TS]

01:45:44   went there and so anybody could you know Mac or Windows could use it whereas a [TS]

01:45:51   decade earlier [TS]

01:45:52   Facebook would have been a Windows app and Mac users might have been locked [TS]

01:45:55   down I think the last big thing I can remember that was a Windows app was [TS]

01:46:01   Napster it was obviously had a component but there wasn't a native Mac App Store [TS]

01:46:08   client but as I was done Windows then I was on the mag think applied this is [TS]

01:46:13   where the IndyMac community took it up and you know absurd absurd didn't want [TS]

01:46:19   to lock Mac users out they were just focused on you know where most of the [TS]

01:46:23   people were which has windows and so it was just you know it's the same reason [TS]

01:46:27   it's not that people necessarily don't even want you know I guess instagram has [TS]

01:46:33   a Windows Phone Klein now but it didn't take them long time because they wanted [TS]

01:46:37   to lock them out is just wasn't worth their attention yet but the IndyMac [TS]

01:46:41   community had a couple of pretty good naps our client's forget the names of [TS]

01:46:47   them I'm sure memory is just like with amazingly well designed out a client or [TS]

01:46:54   even better there were called Maxtor forget the name but there are at least [TS]

01:46:59   two or three sounds like what in IndyMac there were like two or three of them and [TS]

01:47:04   and they were good enough that you could you know you could do the things which [TS]

01:47:09   was you type in a song name and got a bunch of results and you know dragged [TS]

01:47:15   them to your desktop and you had to music on your desktop download mp3's by [TS]

01:47:19   FTP thing like prine absurd know so I think this is I was in college then so [TS]

01:47:25   that way which is like the ground zero for this sort of stuff so using their [TS]

01:47:31   release sites I would go to get people at EPA addresses and other site in la [TS]

01:47:37   jolla all tons of music in retrospect like totally bizarre so from that [TS]

01:47:45   perspective with Napster him along like it was unbelievable like he was like [TS]

01:47:50   going from a old school phone to an iPhone like it was like it was so of [TS]

01:47:57   course it made its own everyone my memory it well it was sort of like [TS]

01:48:02   Google where you know the search results used to be you'd have to reasonably [TS]

01:48:08   expect to hunt through 20 search results to find that thing you were looking for [TS]

01:48:12   and I felt amazing because oh my god now you know you go to AltaVista and you [TS]

01:48:18   would type this query and if you spent ten twenty thirty seconds eyeballing the [TS]

01:48:24   results you would find that thing you're looking for and you were you were like [TS]

01:48:28   30 seconds away from almost all the information you could imagine and then [TS]

01:48:32   all of a sudden Google came along and you were two seconds away from you could [TS]

01:48:37   imagine and you didn't have to eyeball you just see it right there at the top [TS]

01:48:40   of the list and that's what Napster was right instead of having to hunt for [TS]

01:48:44   Keith Richards version of run run Rudolph you know which is it [TS]

01:48:51   used to be before digital music was like this epically hard B side of a single [TS]

01:48:56   from 1978 to fuck you just type of run run Rudolph and Napster and there it is [TS]

01:49:00   at the top you know it was a really goes it was unbelievable and it was working [TS]

01:49:04   on a trip but I remembered you know but that's where the IndyMac community [TS]

01:49:10   really stepped in and maybe a Mac was you know every every once in a while [TS]

01:49:15   something would maybe breakdown because the Napster would change something in [TS]

01:49:18   Windows a pic of the change right away and it took a while for the magazine but [TS]

01:49:21   after that though things were web apps you know at least a big new things he [TS]

01:49:26   didn't feel left out and you could get a Mac and and interchange you know with [TS]

01:49:34   people using the mass market using Windows I don't see that happening I [TS]

01:49:38   really diary because I just I think it was always an aberration I always [TS]

01:49:46   thought that it's the UI I critic in me always saw web apps as this gross [TS]

01:49:54   completely agree with agree now I i this is a controversial but to me it's it's [TS]

01:50:02   so obvious like the problem is people were scared to install applications [TS]

01:50:06   because the whole virus was hard to acquire them it was the App Store it's [TS]

01:50:12   the App Store that killed the web as the main thing yeah and because absurd [TS]

01:50:18   better like there's any sort of technical or any sort of way you look at [TS]

01:50:25   it and app is going to be better [TS]

01:50:27   like updating in ya can't you just cannot under emphasize the fear and [TS]

01:50:38   rightly so that most people had Mac or Windows Mac or Windows but especially [TS]

01:50:44   Windows about installing new software because they eventually would get burned [TS]

01:50:48   you know that you did you know and I know that you just need to do once not a [TS]

01:50:52   problem with modern when does but for a long time the DLL conflicts [TS]

01:50:56   just so many things that you could run into and that you do you could [TS]

01:51:01   eventually slow down your computer and there was no way to undo it you know [TS]

01:51:05   that uninstall was not uninstalling everything and everything was running in [TS]

01:51:11   the background and that the freedom of the App Store and yes it is limiting [TS]

01:51:16   we're now apps there are cool things that an app that can do whatever you [TS]

01:51:20   want on your system you know you know great stuff on there so many you know [TS]

01:51:25   that's why the Mac and iOS deserve to be different you know but you were [TS]

01:51:30   hijacking this conversation right now allowed to do right that you can install [TS]

01:51:35   audio hijack 40 or or or Skype call recorder and while you're in the shower [TS]

01:51:44   piezo and wire and one-half record the audio stream from another and you can't [TS]

01:51:49   do that I was because they're all samples but it's that freedom that it [TS]

01:51:52   helps normal people know that you know you can install these apps willy nilly [TS]

01:51:57   and it will not slow down and get a virus and if you decide you don't like [TS]

01:52:03   the game is your finger down on it the accidents gone and you know it's really [TS]

01:52:08   gone and it doesn't have all this stuff to Detroit us that it's left behind and [TS]

01:52:14   it's the it's the remnants of that fear that that fuel this whole the whole [TS]

01:52:19   unbelievable still persistent things that you're not supposed to leave your [TS]

01:52:26   apps running on iOS and that every you every half an hour or so you should [TS]

01:52:30   double click the home button in 48 to lead all that absolutely although given [TS]

01:52:36   the way that was that it crashes but now I can I completely agree and I think [TS]

01:52:41   it's one of the classic mistakes that people make in general is is they [TS]

01:52:47   attribute like success in one area they don't consider all the things that might [TS]

01:52:52   have contributed to it and so they think like oh web apps are successful because [TS]

01:52:56   it lets you build ones everywhere [TS]

01:52:59   easily update and the people saying this our developers for whom this was a big [TS]

01:53:03   advantage [TS]

01:53:04   was a bit it's very great to play everywhere it's great to build update [TS]

01:53:07   easily but unless you can be kind of apathetic and put yourself in this in [TS]

01:53:13   the shoes of someone of the end-user only then can you realize that they will [TS]

01:53:18   give a shit about that they give a shit about you don't not giving up my risk [TS]

01:53:22   about having their data available everywhere and not and that sort of [TS]

01:53:28   thing in in once that's taken care of that means what's more important is it a [TS]

01:53:33   developer's life being easy or is it having a responsive enjoyable to use [TS]

01:53:38   application and the latter prefer now if anything I think that over the last six [TS]

01:53:48   years of five years whatever the app story or is it was announced six years [TS]

01:53:53   ago but it didn't show ya was announced in 2008 but didn't ship until the June [TS]

01:53:58   so this caused six years but last five six years the at the mobile app I think [TS]

01:54:05   that it's more native app focused today than it was then because because like [TS]

01:54:12   all the people who were insistent that it was only given up the ghost yeah [TS]

01:54:17   there are a lot of people who thought I'm not going to go in for this cause [TS]

01:54:20   its gonna do it it's going to follow the desktop where it's gonna go to the web [TS]

01:54:24   you know a lot of them have given up on facebook to circle back to begin a show [TS]

01:54:28   is a perfect example where I think I think dr. berg had a a sort of come to [TS]

01:54:33   Jesus moment two years ago or so and saw that mobile was not gonna be like the [TS]

01:54:40   web and that native apps really mattered and that they shifted a lot of their [TS]

01:54:44   development from like you know and they did a great job for html5 web use in a [TS]

01:54:53   native app they did a great job but that it wasn't good enough and that's when [TS]

01:54:57   they went on this a choir during pre and hired in this white like this I I think [TS]

01:55:02   Mark Zuckerberg he's is fantastic and what makes him a fantastic CEO is he has [TS]

01:55:10   repeatedly demonstrated [TS]

01:55:12   the ability to change his mind in the face of evidence yes that sounds so [TS]

01:55:19   obvious with someone should do but you know there's an old saying like [TS]

01:55:24   someone's paid to think one thing or where it is like it's very hard in back [TS]

01:55:30   to do and and he is repeatedly shown that he's willing to give up you know [TS]

01:55:37   what seems to be right for him what he thought previously if new evidence [TS]

01:55:42   presented itself and I find that very admirable yeah I totally agree I think [TS]

01:55:49   some of it too is that he has a good gut and I think for example hiring Mike [TS]

01:55:55   Mathis and the other guys from push pop press couple years ago [TS]

01:56:01   you know now who work there and they're the guys behind paper I think it was a [TS]

01:56:05   good thing you know that I you know that and another you know a choir he was the [TS]

01:56:11   sofa was big mac indeed very very good design quality thing it wasn't cuz he [TS]

01:56:23   wanted those products are one in new prices I want talent like this making [TS]

01:56:28   apps for Facebook and that's more of a god thing then I have a specific [TS]

01:56:32   rational here's the thing I want them to bill not only because the things that [TS]

01:56:37   makes them are often not rational the present like if they were rational that [TS]

01:56:42   everyone would do them and which makes them more soluble fiber that I loved [TS]

01:56:47   your discussion of paper I haven't even heard you so excited like just like [TS]

01:56:53   giddy about a book about a product that is like getting out over you in a long [TS]

01:56:59   time that I was like I i I found that that's absolutely delightful thank you [TS]

01:57:05   enjoy it I got a raise but here it is thinking of Upton Sinclair it is yet to [TS]

01:57:19   get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not [TS]

01:57:23   understanding exactly [TS]

01:57:25   and that's I think that often applies to like sort of the rank and file but I [TS]

01:57:30   think it's true for leaders as well you know and I you know let's listen young [TS]

01:57:36   CEO right well let's name the obvious counterexample Steve Ballmer right like [TS]

01:57:42   how many times under his CEO ship did he change his mind I don't know maybe not [TS]

01:57:51   many maybe none I don't know not a big change like that you know and and I [TS]

01:57:58   carry that Facebook being a young company in him being a young CEO I think [TS]

01:58:02   makes it even harder right because people are skeptical especially because [TS]

01:58:07   you know Facebook got off to such a rough start you know their their stock [TS]

01:58:12   tanked like they were aware there's a ton of criticism you know in like even [TS]

01:58:18   more you natural human inclination is kinda wanna be a people pleaser in like [TS]

01:58:23   make investors happy and to retain the ability to be flexible and 22 in just in [TS]

01:58:32   the face of reality I find very very impressive and Evans had a post this [TS]

01:58:40   week on some of the advantages that context of mobile but I think it applies [TS]

01:58:46   to all apps army messaging was the context that he was talking about but [TS]

01:58:50   you know what are the advantages to mobile for message I think it applies to [TS]

01:58:55   all apps but some of them are it's so much easier to get at photos because [TS]

01:59:00   your photo library is right there on the device and there's an API that get it [TS]

01:59:04   wears on the desktop it was always a pain in the ass people had to you know [TS]

01:59:07   because there is no central location for photos and you know especially for the [TS]

01:59:12   web browser you have to use like a weird upload form and expect the user to click [TS]

01:59:17   a button and navigate to the photos in an open-air still an open dialog box and [TS]

01:59:24   it just IMG underscored 0625 jpg [TS]

01:59:29   right it was you know is a pain whereas now you go you know photo you know you [TS]

01:59:34   know give this a permission your photos yes boom here's your photos and you see [TS]

01:59:39   the thumbnail previews and as I pointed out yesterday the other big thing is not [TS]

01:59:44   just it has access your photo library has access to your camera because the [TS]

01:59:47   device itself is your camera is your main camera and so if you want to take a [TS]

01:59:52   new photo you don't even have the photo yet you can do it right there in the app [TS]

01:59:57   you don't have to leave the app the app will let you take the picture right [TS]

02:00:01   there that's desktop has nothing like that and I don't think the mobile I [TS]

02:00:05   think it's unlikely that the mobile web is going with this is this is this is [TS]

02:00:13   really interesting but the Facebook and what's Happening I'm just too quickly [TS]

02:00:18   conversation is remember a couple years ago hope Facebook was all about making [TS]

02:00:23   everything public and Lake didn't follow you in the defaults to the public in [TS]

02:00:28   there is a lot of outcry about it and they did that I think with a PC mindset [TS]

02:00:35   where if you were going to post on Facebook from a PC by definition because [TS]

02:00:40   it was such a relatively speaking [TS]

02:00:43   pain in the ass to abort a photo you were only gonna post the best photos and [TS]

02:00:48   you're only gonna post you know things that you had thought about before you [TS]

02:00:52   through them up there and so it made sense if Facebook was thinking about [TS]

02:00:57   growth it made sense to kind of move from a just not just your private [TS]

02:01:01   network with being more of a almost like taking over the blog space right like [TS]

02:01:05   people there are people who face because like their blog like them they that's [TS]

02:01:08   where they broadcast they broadcast it is actually way more problems you might [TS]

02:01:13   think this is this is the way she uses Facebook when she falls a ton of people [TS]

02:01:19   who she doesn't know but who you use Facebook as a broadcast channel [TS]

02:01:24   what's interesting now is that actually what that did to the Facebook brand is [TS]

02:01:30   it made it a brandy didn't trust like you were never sure if what you doin [TS]

02:01:35   Facebook was private or not and that made it impossible for them to break [TS]

02:01:40   into this messaging space in a meaningful way because that has to be [TS]

02:01:43   private [TS]

02:01:43   what I'm saying my wife has to be private yeah there's a trust issue you [TS]

02:01:48   know exactly I think I mentioned this a few weeks ago talking to but it might be [TS]

02:01:53   a repeat but I think it's worth repeating [TS]

02:01:55   is that as we work on sink for Vesper we thought about how are you gonna sign in [TS]

02:02:04   and the easiest the easiest way for like a custom [TS]

02:02:10   you know if it's not going to be iCloud we don't have to sign it if it was a [TS]

02:02:14   custom thing the easiest thing to do would be to use something like Facebook [TS]

02:02:17   and Twitter and sign in with Twitter and Facebook as in you know how to create a [TS]

02:02:23   new account and a new password and remember it you just say sign in with [TS]

02:02:26   Facebook and you go to Facebook and authorize this app bounce back to the [TS]

02:02:32   app but we did you know obviously not scientific but did some casual polling [TS]

02:02:39   of friends and family and it was almost unanimous that among especially among [TS]

02:02:45   non-technical people they hate that especially Facebook because they don't [TS]

02:02:52   trust it that simple but they don't they don't pay day almost a try never to sign [TS]

02:02:57   into other apps with Facebook because they just assume that if they do that [TS]

02:03:01   unwanted stuff is gonna get posted to Facebook and now and it's it was a real [TS]

02:03:11   eye-opener that they don't see it as a convenience to having another site with [TS]

02:03:16   their email and password [TS]

02:03:19   they see that you know using your email address is better because they know that [TS]

02:03:24   they're the only ones who read their email [TS]

02:03:27   was a real eye-opener they just don't trust it and not not like they don't [TS]

02:03:31   trust it they don't use Facebook they just don't they just assume though you [TS]

02:03:34   know that Facebook is only safe for stuff that you assume will eventually be [TS]

02:03:39   made public so yeah it was interesting lately but that was a reasonable thing [TS]

02:03:45   for Facebook to do in the PC era because it was such a pain in the ass upwards to [TS]

02:03:50   upload you have you had a chance to think before you put it stopped now [TS]

02:03:56   right with the mobile area where everything is devices always with you [TS]

02:04:00   all the time like to to take pictures of post all kinds of stuff and that's why [TS]

02:04:09   what's up we'll never regretted Facebook like the biggest advantage of whatsapp [TS]

02:04:13   is it's not called Facebook yeah I totally agree I think that's very very [TS]

02:04:18   essential to it so let's go back to what what are the Microsoft options to get [TS]

02:04:23   apps software developed for Windows Phone so first was actually get people [TS]

02:04:29   to developers to to really gauge right native apps for Windows Phone not gonna [TS]

02:04:34   happen I don't think second would be for web apps to really take off cross [TS]

02:04:38   platform and then they could just piggyback on Android and iOS as [TS]

02:04:42   developers make weapons I don't think that's gonna happen which brings us to [TS]

02:04:48   number three which you written about Charles Arthur had a piece in The [TS]

02:04:53   Guardian there is a counter argument by Peter break which is that going to [TS]

02:05:03   present this is the 22 ways of doing the same thing [TS]

02:05:06   Charles Arthur said with Microsoft should do is for Android pretty much an [TS]

02:05:12   Amazon and just fork the open source version of Android Android and do their [TS]

02:05:17   own Microsoft version of Android and replace all of the stuff that like when [TS]

02:05:22   you get a Google Play version of Android we're all Hawks up to default goes to [TS]

02:05:28   Gmail and has chrome and Google sign in [TS]

02:05:31   replace at all with Microsoft Services and you would get you know being [TS]

02:05:36   and Windows Live email and all that now second version of the same argument is [TS]

02:05:45   that and and there are rumors that Microsoft is actually the second one [TS]

02:05:48   seems more like that which is that they should they can stick with Windows Phone [TS]

02:05:55   as the OS but have a runtime layered to run Android apps to me it's to its six [TS]

02:06:04   of one half a dozen I think it's a little bit more likely that they would [TS]

02:06:07   go the latter route because I think they would want to control I think they would [TS]

02:06:12   want to control the lower levels of the OS not that they wouldn't control an [TS]

02:06:16   open-source Android for but that they they already habit they don't need a new [TS]

02:06:21   kernel it's the absence after what say you will first deserve a title like a [TS]

02:06:34   small point like my main question would be if they did like the latter option [TS]

02:06:39   running Android apps on Windows with it you know I could run time for those abs [TS]

02:06:44   I was the performance gonna be like that would be my main my main question of [TS]

02:06:49   course it's fine on a Windows 8 device that's has an Intel processor which is [TS]

02:06:54   massively more powerful than the ARM processors but you know any iPhone which [TS]

02:07:04   is has has that smaller prizes or is it gonna be performing that'd be my main [TS]

02:07:09   question yeah you never know I would get a quick dial in John Siracusa I think [TS]

02:07:18   because Android apps are fundamentally Java apps and I know that you know [TS]

02:07:25   there's the whole lawsuit with Oracle and that they don't really use the [TS]

02:07:28   official job a trademark runtime have the dow their version then there's the [TS]

02:07:33   second one you know they have a new one that to replace dalvik [TS]

02:07:36   but because Android itself doesn't run native apps it's your not emulating [TS]

02:07:44   you know all they need is a Pik Android emulator right right so my understanding [TS]

02:07:53   I think you know with the way Java works that it I I think they get certainly [TS]

02:08:00   technically feasible that they could be performant yeah that was ok was so let's [TS]

02:08:07   let's assume that it is that that's probably the case that that would [TS]

02:08:13   probably preferable for them you know that I imagine controlling the kernel is [TS]

02:08:20   important to them so regardless it would be a significant step so I think it's [TS]

02:08:28   fair to those two together regardless in either case it's not a totally free once [TS]

02:08:37   rightly it's not like the automatically get all the Android apps right cause the [TS]

02:08:42   Android apps depend on the Google Play Store and I'm relatively certain that [TS]

02:08:48   Google is not going to develop a version of the Play Store for Windows right you [TS]

02:08:52   don't need the developers taxi submit the apps to the Microsoft Store right [TS]

02:08:57   and they're going to change a few API calls and things like that I think what [TS]

02:09:01   bright oversold in the article is the number of changes that developers to [TS]

02:09:06   make but I think it actually would be relatively trivial arm from a developer [TS]

02:09:12   selectively to support this new runtime if Windows Microsoft added it but the [TS]

02:09:20   fact is you're gonna have to go out and do that and there is a burden on [TS]

02:09:24   developers they have to maintain an additional like their meeting additional [TS]

02:09:29   version of the out but that said if I'm going to developer and this is my job at [TS]

02:09:35   Microsoft I did developer relations if you're going to develop parades a whole [TS]

02:09:42   lot easier to say can you just change these couple of lines in the API and [TS]

02:09:48   submit it here [TS]

02:09:49   and you're gonna get upside from cells in new customers versus can you make a [TS]

02:09:56   completely new app in a run time that you're not familiar with you might have [TS]

02:10:02   to hire a new person and oh by the way we don't really have any good evidence [TS]

02:10:08   of people making it big on this platform it's it's a Herculean effort and you [TS]

02:10:18   know it was an hour to Windows 8 the run-up to an israeli we had a bit of a [TS]

02:10:25   story like saying like what Windows has all this potential and windows just [TS]

02:10:29   cells are going to go as markets and we got a lot of good wins on board once it [TS]

02:10:33   actually came out got a whole lot more difficult and just the degree of [TS]

02:10:41   difficulty in talking to develop word to me makes it a no-brainer for sure [TS]

02:10:47   here's my take and maybe I'm off base because this is meet speaking from [TS]

02:10:52   somebody whose lifelong persnickety user interface obsessive and which is the [TS]

02:11:00   main reason why I was never wavered from using a Mac even when Apple was in [TS]

02:11:08   trouble even when the machines you know where compared very poorly price for [TS]

02:11:13   performance without question I have is never deluded about that and even when [TS]

02:11:18   the OS was really on shaky underpinnings and and face things like the whole [TS]

02:11:25   system locking up when the browser locked up because I liked couldn't i [TS]

02:11:30   couldn't bear gross interface of Windows even with Windows 95 98 it was just two [TS]

02:11:38   grossly designed to me I couldn't take it is that new Android apps running on [TS]

02:11:42   Windows Phone are never going to fit in right there you know it's like running a [TS]

02:11:47   Windows app on Mac you know when you run parallels or something like that sure it [TS]

02:11:51   works but it's gross right it doesn't fit it doesn't use the same [TS]

02:11:55   sharing you know when you go you know Android has its own way of sharing that [TS]

02:12:00   you know in advance one of the nice selling points of Android vs iOS is that [TS]

02:12:07   inter application sharing right you know and Windows has its own version but [TS]

02:12:13   they're different you know it's a mismatch you gonna it's gonna look like [TS]

02:12:16   you're running an Android app on Windows and I i think thats now it might be that [TS]

02:12:21   I'm off based on that because all the people who care about stuff like that [TS]

02:12:25   all using iPhones anyone know I think I'm getting there is something to that [TS]

02:12:29   doesn't mean the end of that point is the one area where that doesn't matter [TS]

02:12:34   and where this might help is games because games it doesn't matter games [TS]

02:12:39   aren't really absurd don't use the you know the the sharing in the framework [TS]

02:12:43   and all that stuff doesn't matter the game's almost always have their own UI [TS]

02:12:45   for everything anyway [TS]

02:12:47   flabby birds right would have worked perfectly so that you know it's just a [TS]

02:12:52   funny little example it's a stupid little thing wrong enough by next week [TS]

02:12:55   probably forgot about flabby birds but that flabby birds was an example where [TS]

02:13:00   Windows Phone missed out on it [TS]

02:13:02   know if that's what kills it is it's tough exactly like blackbirds where [TS]

02:13:07   there is this thing out there and everyone hears about it and it's not a [TS]

02:13:12   Windows Phone or you walk into Cisco or Cisco a Costco and you there's a massive [TS]

02:13:21   posters on the walls downloader app but it says there's a icon for iOS Android [TS]

02:13:26   or Windows Phone wake it's just this constant kind of reinforcement that [TS]

02:13:32   there is all wacked that is that is devastating and the problem is like the [TS]

02:13:41   problem of the classic example is when the things that that people that's hard [TS]

02:13:47   to get about marketing in the way that black market advertising about our days [TS]

02:13:51   the way it works is their advertising a lot of ways is kinda like water running [TS]

02:13:57   over limestone like it where is it down over like centuries and that's what you [TS]

02:14:02   have like mcdonald's ads all these high that's why you have the Kleenex [TS]

02:14:06   coupon in every Sunday paper it's not that they're getting their reach her and [TS]

02:14:11   I anyone ad and that's why it's ok the Apple runs ads all the time it's the [TS]

02:14:17   repetition repetition matters and the rapid addition of reminders that Windows [TS]

02:14:25   Phone is in a meaningful platform like anyone examples find you to explain it [TS]

02:14:32   away but it's the repetition that kills it and and yet no I agree like the the [TS]

02:14:38   special on Windows I think the difference is magnified because Windows [TS]

02:14:42   met like the Metro environment is so different than Android in particular to [TS]

02:14:49   its credit as design was speaking as a designer you know in a largely praised [TS]

02:14:55   you know in it is original it is not a copy of iOS or Android yeah that's [TS]

02:15:01   different but that means the absurd stick out this I know that this is like [TS]

02:15:06   we've met at 11 concern I personally have its not shared widely so what it's [TS]

02:15:13   worth being a Microsoft I used a Windows Phone regularly I don't like it I think [TS]

02:15:21   it reviews very well in day-to-day use I found it frustrating but I might be [TS]

02:15:27   accepted there might be fantastic as everyone is reviewed it saying it's [TS]

02:15:31   great that's why I used a month I didn't like it better than a hundred yeah yeah [TS]

02:15:43   I mean they are the strengths and weaknesses [TS]

02:15:50   also ahead I thought it also suffered poorly from a density of information yes [TS]

02:15:55   you know that use these big friendly fire ants and big friendly things and [TS]

02:16:01   reviews well it looks very friendly but then it ends up that you just see fewer [TS]

02:16:10   do as i cant stand like soft buttons and especially their goddamn search button [TS]

02:16:17   in the bottom of his drooling [TS]

02:16:19   like every time I opened up any app that have a search function in there was both [TS]

02:16:24   a soft button for being and eight other button for search within the app like it [TS]

02:16:30   like it is hurt me maybe because I have iOS habits where I i used to assuming [TS]

02:16:39   the save the bottom of the screen is safe [TS]

02:16:41   every time I've tried using for you know just four days but you know couple weeks [TS]

02:16:45   at a time and on iOS device with soft buttons I truly console right by typing [TS]

02:16:51   because when I go to get the space underneath and then I have hit the home [TS]

02:16:57   button search or something you know I don't know whatever I have very media [TS]

02:17:03   hands like I've [TS]

02:17:05   like ugly fingers in massive palms which means I just using the phone I triggered [TS]

02:17:11   all the time the second time it happens it's the first time you think what was [TS]

02:17:16   that was at me [TS]

02:17:16   the second time you wanna and yeah it's not just like a little annoyed yet they [TS]

02:17:24   throw the phone and I don't know I guess because obviously people have phones [TS]

02:17:29   that they haven't thrown against the wall haha for a long time so maybe [TS]

02:17:32   people get used to I never did and I thought that was a mistake I don't they [TS]

02:17:37   that Windows Phone copied the wrong thing there I agree that they should [TS]

02:17:42   have gone I also don't like the ivory too long for the show can't get into it [TS]

02:17:47   I hate the whole back button initiative ignored that they were going to his like [TS]

02:17:53   why the home but not all of us will never go away and anyone who says that [TS]

02:17:58   they should get rid of it like doesn't doesn't groc yeah I agree it's a safety [TS]

02:18:05   risk [TS]

02:18:06   exactly like you can always there to me it's the it's the Einstein quote [TS]

02:18:13   everything should be as simple as possible but not more so [TS]

02:18:15   or paraphrase or whatever but to me it quote it's genius because it doesn't [TS]

02:18:22   quite have a logical meaning but to me what it means is don't take simplicity [TS]

02:18:27   you know too far I think we talked about it when we were talking about the paper [TS]

02:18:32   that you can make an app that literally has no buttons you know like to clear [TS]

02:18:37   out the clear to do out but then it just feels almost like to me it's whereas [TS]

02:18:44   paper has almost no buttons but then when you wanna like post something [TS]

02:18:48   there's a button there that just says post an ad and it's exactly what they [TS]

02:18:52   didn't take it too far so you can say that would be great have a phone with no [TS]

02:18:56   buttons and that would be amazing there's the old minimum and you can [TS]

02:19:00   imagine some kind of way that you could make a version of iOS the didn't have a [TS]

02:19:04   home button and then you have this order minimum nobody and you know what that [TS]

02:19:10   too few buttons because people on that one but now I gestures I I think [TS]

02:19:18   gestures are only workable as a secondary interactions keyboard [TS]

02:19:23   shortcuts are all for power users [TS]

02:19:25   everyone every everything other than single tap and one finger drag up and [TS]

02:19:32   down is a power user future with Windows 8 beyond the beyond the way gluing two [TS]

02:19:39   interfaces that were totally different together like it was a gesture dependent [TS]

02:19:45   it was like delivering interface where the only arose was almost like returning [TS]

02:19:53   to the terminal at the only way around using the keyboard like you have to have [TS]

02:19:58   the thing you can see and can point toward tete touch ya one thing that they [TS]

02:20:04   never lost with iOS even with the redesign and I was seven is that you [TS]

02:20:09   never need to do anything with more than one finger and you never need to do [TS]

02:20:14   anything with more than one tap you can double tap to zoom in a web page but if [TS]

02:20:17   you don't know that you'll be fine as you can [TS]

02:20:20   pinching does take two fingers but its natural right people get it makes sense [TS]

02:20:25   you make your figure it out and everything else is a thing you can see [TS]

02:20:30   on the screen and tap and so you know there's stuff like notification center [TS]

02:20:36   that you have to use it just an edge gesture from the side to get [TS]

02:20:40   and the new control center from the bottom but you dont thats shortcuts and [TS]

02:20:45   I swear I know there's so many people out there who can say that's not for [TS]

02:20:48   power users and I'm telling you at some level it is because what you a lot of [TS]

02:20:52   people can still do is tap the home button go to Settings [TS]

02:20:57   go there isn't there's another way to do it right be slower than explicit way [TS]

02:21:01   this is why by the way I think so far is the worst of the new apps because it's [TS]

02:21:09   I definitely a power user and I still get confused about how to bring up the [TS]

02:21:15   address bar in the command bar it's not obvious and it's not clear how to do it [TS]

02:21:22   and it's not as terribly could be touched on the muck around it will come [TS]

02:21:28   up but that's the weakness in it is that there is not an explicit path that's [TS]

02:21:34   always available to the user you ok with it on the iPad has a lot more explicit [TS]

02:21:40   their know exactly did I was funny that I was six to eight I think I think you [TS]

02:21:46   far to minimize the chrome exactly exactly well in the big 12 me that still [TS]

02:21:50   gets me and I've been using iOS 7 full time since July still gets me is iCloud [TS]

02:22:00   tabs because on the Mac there's a cloud button that brings down your list of [TS]

02:22:06   open tabs and other devices and on the iPad there's a cloud button that brings [TS]

02:22:10   down list of your tabs on other devices but on the iPhone you have to hit the + [TS]

02:22:14   button to make a new window and then scroll down underneath all your windows [TS]

02:22:18   and in just magically they're hovering over your October desktop wallpaper is [TS]

02:22:25   the list of open taps well as other devices are kind of hard anyways yeah [TS]

02:22:32   but it's it's such a mismatch though to the way you get it from the other two [TS]

02:22:36   devices where there's a cloud button brings up the list as they're just there [TS]

02:22:41   floating underneath your taxes I i'm happy to agree with you that Safari on [TS]

02:22:46   the iPhone is [TS]

02:22:47   could be a lot better when I don't know I still like it still think it's pretty [TS]

02:22:52   good I maybe I do question whether they've I I like the new tab in official [TS]

02:22:58   I love it actually yeah I question that chrome fighting yeah i know i I use I [TS]

02:23:07   switched to Safari as I used chrome on Mac Alan Mac [TS]

02:23:13   new Safari on iOS devices one it's faster but to the III don't find the [TS]

02:23:24   chrome interface retrieve you are confusing interviews there is a whole [TS]

02:23:28   nother one right there so it's a mess in general [TS]

02:23:32   all right let's wrap it up so do anything about the Android Windows Phone [TS]

02:23:37   running Android apps here's my I think it would help with games I definitely [TS]

02:23:41   would help with games but then what's the point where I don't know that this [TS]

02:23:48   solves any problem for them know I completely agree the problem is that [TS]

02:23:51   Microsoft's not going to make money in licensing vos right that's never gonna [TS]

02:23:55   happen right you just wrote [TS]

02:23:57   99% sure what you just wrote that looked a whole go to the bottom line the bottom [TS]

02:24:02   line the whole reason they made Windows Phone in the first place or call it [TS]

02:24:05   Windows Mobile whatever is on the assumption that they could licensed it [TS]

02:24:08   to OEM for 10 bucks right that's the whole reason exists is will make an [TS]

02:24:13   arrest [TS]

02:24:14   phones will run it will license it for 10 bucks a pop and they'll be a billion [TS]

02:24:18   of them and then we'll have ten billion dollars and guess what [TS]

02:24:21   Android took all the air out of that we're like the licensing value of an OS [TS]

02:24:25   is like $2 ya know exactly i mean it's whatever the patent fees they paid [TS]

02:24:32   Microsoft right and you're competing against and and in in and the other [TS]

02:24:37   thing too is in its a big difference and I think it to blame was a blind but [TS]

02:24:42   Microsoft is that in the real low end markets you know all throughout asia [TS]

02:24:48   china for example where they use the the open source version of Android where [TS]

02:24:53   they don't pay any licensing fees to Google they don't even pay the 75 cents [TS]

02:24:57   in a device activation [TS]

02:24:59   or inspection fee they don't pay any patent royalties to Microsoft Azure in [TS]

02:25:03   countries that have different IP protection levels they're not paying [TS]

02:25:08   anything to anybody and so 80 and in the PC era it didn't fly like that what they [TS]

02:25:17   what the people who wanted 20 license fees did for their PCs was pirated [TS]

02:25:22   version of Windows and Microsoft got some value out of that cause it was you [TS]

02:25:27   know they were either paying for Windows or they were pirating windows but it was [TS]

02:25:31   windows everywhere and that's not going to happen I know that the Android of the [TS]

02:25:36   BC Aereo peres was pirated windows like which is like you have maybe we're not [TS]

02:25:42   actually making money but a nice but it's a nice problem to have though is it [TS]

02:25:47   really you know it's it's a funny argument to make but if Microsoft was [TS]

02:25:53   far better served from that because it helped make helped it just at least [TS]

02:25:56   helped build the windows [TS]

02:26:00   Germany Germany when I have no idea how wonderful words were problematic [TS]

02:26:10   together guess we know way too many words right there meaning another week [TS]

02:26:15   it goes right back to the beginning you can [TS]

02:26:17   phonetic spelling I don't add in teaching Chinese gives Germany Germany [TS]

02:26:27   now I just looked it up it's a it's a soft G like like gift gift gift I was [TS]

02:26:35   always right on that now it's gift here they were Microsoft like I think big big [TS]

02:26:41   picture like there if you back out what's the point there is nothing to be [TS]

02:26:49   gained from Windows Phone there is the person Nokia was throwing good money [TS]

02:26:54   after bad there's no money made for the only way to make money by selling a [TS]

02:26:59   device is if you're highly differentiated like iPhones are if [TS]

02:27:05   you're not a commodity device you're gonna get a race to the bottom and you [TS]

02:27:08   don't want to be in that business microsoft knows that very very well [TS]

02:27:11   they've forgotten what they know in the assumption they have to be an OS company [TS]

02:27:18   right where they need to be a services company they need to be out absolute [TS]

02:27:24   best friend like being on iOS in exchange for office get as your service [TS]

02:27:32   is built into Xcode like they need this is the sort of stuff they need to like [TS]

02:27:36   be thinking about Google and never let them in so it makes sense to do [TS]

02:27:41   something on the low end to compete with that but at the end the day like what's [TS]

02:27:47   the point and the problem is the BlackBerry problem is going from where [TS]

02:27:53   I'm at now to where I need to be in three to forty years there's this valley [TS]

02:27:58   where I'm not making any money I'm losing money and it's really hard to [TS]

02:28:02   cross that valley and the problem is the longer you wait because it's hard to [TS]

02:28:07   cross the more you're kind of inherent advantage on the other side start to [TS]

02:28:11   dissipate and the problem for Microsoft in the big danger they face right now is [TS]

02:28:18   the longer they wait to kind of capitalized on what they have with FBI [TS]

02:28:23   office whether that be being whether it be the maps that they have the longer [TS]

02:28:29   they wait [TS]

02:28:29   more of those become commoditized as well and when they finally go across the [TS]

02:28:35   valley they find that the pot of gold that might have been there has [TS]

02:28:39   dissipated and it's it's really gained a crunch time for them and what makes it [TS]

02:28:46   so hard is they make so much money still especially in the enterprise that [TS]

02:28:52   there's not that like white threatening like were gonna go out of business if we [TS]

02:28:57   don't make a change that Apple face in the nineties they don't have that yet [TS]

02:29:03   the best way they can manage to view you know just separate legacy in future and [TS]

02:29:09   just run the PC business separately and just not running into the ground but run [TS]

02:29:17   it into the sunset and focus refocus windows and I think they're doing this [TS]

02:29:23   with what I have heard about Windows 8.1 at least in some small degree that [TS]

02:29:28   they're shipping it back away from the changes and back towards let's make this [TS]

02:29:32   traditional Windows user happy and let's just concentrate on making windows happy [TS]

02:29:38   for the people who want to use a PC with a keyboard and mouse and and focused [TS]

02:29:45   separate efforts on everything no no I agree that that's exactly right but the [TS]

02:29:52   thing is I think they need to give up on the OS dream like and they need to [TS]

02:29:56   figure out how can we dwell on everything other than PCs exactly right [TS]

02:30:00   exactly what they have to accept the fact that the PC is now effectively [TS]

02:30:05   already a minority of computing devices and that it's only going to shrink and [TS]

02:30:11   that there's no there's money to be made there for years and years to come but [TS]

02:30:16   there's no growth rate but there's no growth exactly [TS]

02:30:20   Ben Thompson people can read your website at strategic hurry as tra te [TS]

02:30:28   chgr wired.com I think it just google Ben Thompson yes it is the first result [TS]

02:30:34   which started with a bang with a piece of people were here today that I that [TS]

02:30:39   the title my site was by Ben Thompson in your browser bar by Ben Thompson is way [TS]

02:30:49   too common of a name like I do every trick in the book pretty good pretty [TS]

02:30:53   good and and they can also find you on Twitter it [TS]

02:30:58   monk bent k dnt good Twitter feed and last but not least your new podcast yes [TS]

02:31:08   well with this site the site of that shit up there it's it's pretty brutal [TS]

02:31:12   website I have one post I will one package has posted so we get into iTunes [TS]

02:31:17   but exponents exp oh and he interviewed there you go [TS]

02:31:22   thanks [TS]