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H.I. #71: Trolley Problem


01:00:00   the kind of thing like out is actually [TS]

01:00:01   worse than doing nothing [TS]

01:00:03   yeah but because you're not thinking [TS]

01:00:04   about it in the right way you're not [TS]

01:00:06   gonna like hearing it though because the [TS]

01:00:07   first time a self-driving car does [TS]

01:00:10   swerve to protect its occupant and mows [TS]

01:00:12   down even one pedestrian you're gonna [TS]

01:00:15   have one heck of a loss so it's not even [TS]

01:00:17   going to be like a trial or reflexes and [TS]

01:00:19   we're going to be actually going through [TS]

01:00:21   the code of what the car did and that [TS]

01:00:24   code is going to be directly attributed [TS]

01:00:25   to the people who created the code so [TS]

01:00:28   when it gets to court we're going to be [TS]

01:00:29   able to look at exactly why the decision [TS]

01:00:31   was made what the prioritizing was that [TS]

01:00:34   deliberately drove here and did that so [TS]

01:00:35   it's gonna be messy [TS]

01:00:37   yeah but i'm still willing to bats that [TS]

01:00:40   the simpler crash avoidance code is the [TS]

01:00:44   better option [TS]

01:00:45   the simpler thing of don't try to do [TS]

01:00:47   complicated things with swerving just [TS]

01:00:50   break right and just break away faster [TS]

01:00:52   than human ever could [TS]

01:00:53   that solves 99.999% of your interactions [TS]

01:00:59   and the idea of the car [TS]

01:01:01   taking evasive action becomes a much [TS]

01:01:04   more complicated scenario I'm great this [TS]

01:01:06   is the whole debate but of course [TS]

01:01:08   there's not ever going to be any [TS]

01:01:09   controversy where cars just told to [TS]

01:01:12   break the controversy starts when you [TS]

01:01:14   start telling the car to swerve break [TS]

01:01:17   laws to preserve life to drive on a [TS]

01:01:20   footpath to stop a person smashing into [TS]

01:01:22   the rocks that fell off the mountain [TS]

01:01:24   right that this is where the decision [TS]

01:01:26   needs to be made there's you know if we [TS]

01:01:28   just make a blanket decision just break [TS]

01:01:30   and hope you don't hit don't hit too [TS]

01:01:32   fast that's easy [TS]

01:01:33   whoo-hoo and the only person at risk is [TS]

01:01:35   then the person in the car [TS]

01:01:36   the controversy comes when there's a [TS]

01:01:38   third parties who were just innocent [TS]

01:01:40   bystanders who suddenly put at risk [TS]

01:01:42   because of the way the car was coded [TS]

01:01:44   this is where the whole controversy [TS]

01:01:46   comes in someone who was just there [TS]

01:01:49   having an ice cream on the side of the [TS]

01:01:51   road but because a cast swerve to avoid [TS]

01:01:54   the brachs they get run over and the [TS]

01:01:58   person in the car is still alive and the [TS]

01:01:59   people who coded the car or well and [TS]

01:02:01   good and some person who was not even [TS]

01:02:03   involved in this whole scenario is now [TS]

01:02:04   dead right I understand exactly what [TS]

01:02:06   you're saying i am saying though that [TS]

01:02:07   the more complicated collision-avoidance [TS]

01:02:10   software [TS]

01:02:11   just the trolley problem kind of stuff [TS]

01:02:13   ya might be more harmful than the [TS]

01:02:17   simpler collision software you're saying [TS]

01:02:20   cars should not be allowed to swerve [TS]

01:02:22   they should hit the brakes and see what [TS]

01:02:25   happens and if we start putting swerve [TS]

01:02:27   abilities in onto the sidewalk to do [TS]

01:02:29   something clever which you could [TS]

01:02:31   conceivably do you saying don't let the [TS]

01:02:34   cars do that but don't have that as part [TS]

01:02:36   of the cars programming I'm not trying [TS]

01:02:38   to prescribe this scenario like what [TS]

01:02:41   should or should not that the car be [TS]

01:02:43   allowed to do i'm simply saying like the [TS]

01:02:46   more you try to imagine the car making [TS]

01:02:49   more and more complex decisions [TS]

01:02:51   including factoring in the number of [TS]

01:02:53   people who are around that it's going to [TS]

01:02:54   plow into i'm suspecting the higher [TS]

01:02:57   probability you have like a false [TS]

01:02:58   positive and the car does something [TS]

01:03:00   unexpected and causes loss of life that [TS]

01:03:02   wouldn't have otherwise that's a cop-out [TS]

01:03:04   I think you're copping out great because [TS]

01:03:06   deciding to not code the car to make a [TS]

01:03:10   more complex decision like swerving up [TS]

01:03:12   onto the sidewalk is still a decision [TS]

01:03:14   you still decided to leave the line of [TS]

01:03:17   code out so you still either condemned [TS]

01:03:21   the person in the car to death by [TS]

01:03:23   leaving out the line of code or [TS]

01:03:24   condemned pedestrians to death by [TS]

01:03:26   putting the line of code in this to me [TS]

01:03:28   come to the core like what computer code [TS]

01:03:30   is though like the fewer lines of code [TS]

01:03:32   is a better thing there's fewer problems [TS]

01:03:35   that can arise on average like the less [TS]

01:03:38   code that you actually have there's less [TS]

01:03:40   room for mistake so again to come back [TS]

01:03:43   to my question to help me understand [TS]

01:03:45   your position then let's call it the [TS]

01:03:47   swerve line of code [TS]

01:03:49   this is the line of code that gives a [TS]

01:03:51   car the extra option that if it thinks [TS]

01:03:53   the breaking won't work [TS]

01:03:55   it's still going to hit the boulder you [TS]

01:03:57   can activate the swerve option to swerve [TS]

01:04:00   line of code are you saying don't put [TS]

01:04:02   the swerve line of code in because [TS]

01:04:04   that's making it more complicated to use [TS]

01:04:05   your way of speaking and therefore is [TS]

01:04:09   not in keeping with what you're [TS]

01:04:10   advocating so you're saying don't put [TS]

01:04:13   the swerve line of code in here is where [TS]

01:04:15   I am mentally drawing this line [TS]

01:04:18   yeah I am ok with adding a collision [TS]

01:04:22   avoidance mechanism that's where [TS]

01:04:24   I was out of the way of the boulder yeah [TS]

01:04:27   right what I think crosses into the [TS]

01:04:30   territory of now you're looking for a [TS]

01:04:33   one-in-a-million type accidents is also [TS]

01:04:38   then adding an additional layer on top [TS]

01:04:41   which is trying to calculate like you [TS]

01:04:43   can swerve to avoid the boulder but you [TS]

01:04:45   also want to be looking for [TS]

01:04:48   are there a bunch of other people who [TS]

01:04:50   are standing in the road for some reason [TS]

01:04:52   where you wouldn't expect them to be and [TS]

01:04:54   then if there are count up how many [TS]

01:04:57   people there are there and figure out [TS]

01:04:59   how many people are in the car and then [TS]

01:05:02   make a decision about whether or not [TS]

01:05:03   you're going straight or not like I [TS]

01:05:05   guess where my mental boundary is is I [TS]

01:05:08   feel like what would i say simpler is [TS]

01:05:10   better is I mean the car can drive [TS]

01:05:12   anywhere where there are not things in [TS]

01:05:15   the way right whatever mechanism it uses [TS]

01:05:18   for things in the way [TS]

01:05:20   ok and break and drive where things [TS]

01:05:23   aren't and I think like that algorithm [TS]

01:05:26   covers almost every accidents you could [TS]

01:05:29   possibly imagine the thing that [TS]

01:05:30   irritates me is the additional moral [TS]

01:05:32   machine of like also be looking at all [TS]

01:05:35   of the people and making calculations [TS]

01:05:38   about what is the most moral thing to do [TS]

01:05:40   that to me seems to go into crazy land [TS]

01:05:42   of one-in-a-million kind of accidents [TS]

01:05:44   that are going to be incredibly rare [TS]

01:05:45   okay I can see why this is quicksand he [TS]

01:05:48   to get drawn in pretty quickly too but I [TS]

01:05:52   think I kind of understand where you're [TS]

01:05:53   coming from [TS]

01:05:54   yeah that's all I'm saying is like car [TS]

01:05:56   can drive where objects are not do not [TS]

01:05:58   distinguish between what objects are [TS]

01:06:00   just leave it at that otherwise this is [TS]

01:06:02   playing in fantasy land of incredibly [TS]

01:06:05   unlikely accidents and the possibility [TS]

01:06:08   of error and false positives that causes [TS]

01:06:10   the carts were when you wouldn't expect [TS]

01:06:12   it to our greater than the number of [TS]

01:06:14   accidents that you're going to prevent [TS]

01:06:16   our lives that you're going to save from [TS]

01:06:17   adding in trolley problem stuff i think [TS]

01:06:21   there you have designed more oka not [TS]

01:06:23   monster car because if your car puts the [TS]

01:06:27   same Valley on [TS]

01:06:29   a pedestrian standing somewhere as it [TS]

01:06:31   does a huge concrete pole that's just an [TS]

01:06:35   object don't hit objects then I think [TS]

01:06:37   your car is a probably are [TS]

01:06:40   it's going to be hard to upset people [TS]

01:06:41   it's only when the cast is having to [TS]

01:06:43   identify the difference between a brick [TS]

01:06:45   wall and Bill blogs that you start [TS]

01:06:48   getting into difficult territory i think [TS]

01:06:50   that we're in agreement [TS]

01:06:51   fantastic we haven't done Brady's paper [TS]

01:06:57   cuts for a while I have a very fast [TS]

01:06:59   growing list i feel like this is the [TS]

01:07:00   introduction to every Brady's papercuts [TS]

01:07:03   is you sayin we haven't done paper cuts [TS]

01:07:05   in a while trying to ease you into it [TS]

01:07:07   because I don't want you to think it's [TS]

01:07:08   like taking over the podcast if i keep [TS]

01:07:10   saying that it right the idea in your [TS]

01:07:12   head that it is occasional then you go [TS]

01:07:14   okay yeah getting educational yeah I'm [TS]

01:07:16   have one you're playing mind tricks on [TS]

01:07:17   me I know what's occurring here your [TS]

01:07:19   putty in my hands gray you're quite the [TS]

01:07:21   snake charmer brady and you get into [TS]

01:07:24   this paper cut corner [TS]

01:07:25   I think we do a paper corner i have [TS]

01:07:27   three so now we're tied into it yeah [TS]

01:07:29   exactly like unless you do some very [TS]

01:07:32   intricate editing you have to put all [TS]

01:07:33   three in there [TS]

01:07:34   here's the thing that I want to get on [TS]

01:07:35   the record right yeah future listeners [TS]

01:07:37   of the podcast Brady may at some point [TS]

01:07:40   say something like oh there's two things [TS]

01:07:42   we want to talk about three things we [TS]

01:07:43   want to talk about and I made you know [TS]

01:07:45   what I'm just going to leave it in there [TS]

01:07:46   and then there's only going to be the [TS]

01:07:47   one thing i'm just i'm not even going to [TS]

01:07:49   try to cut around that anymore because I [TS]

01:07:51   just gotta push back against your [TS]

01:07:53   encroachment and they'll think that like [TS]

01:07:55   I've been forgetful another operator you [TS]

01:07:57   forgot to mention the second thing when [TS]

01:07:58   in fact I spoke about it for two hours [TS]

01:08:00   yeah and out it comes so let's run [TS]

01:08:03   through ready your three paper cuts the [TS]

01:08:07   first paper cut people using [TS]

01:08:08   speakerphone in public places when [TS]

01:08:11   they're talking to people on either [TS]

01:08:13   phone calls or facetime it should be [TS]

01:08:16   legal to shoot those people that's as [TS]

01:08:18   far as I'm concerned [TS]

01:08:19   don't do that [TS]

01:08:20   I didn't say that it was legal no no I'm [TS]

01:08:23   not saying don't shoot them are doing [TS]

01:08:24   don't you have a fine i am also saying [TS]

01:08:26   don't shoot okay I'm saying don't go on [TS]

01:08:28   speakerphone because grace right it is [TS]

01:08:30   infuriating [TS]

01:08:31   this is actually when apple announced [TS]

01:08:32   the new iphone one of the things I was [TS]

01:08:35   frowning the hardest at was like oh and [TS]

01:08:37   we've added an additional speaker so it [TS]

01:08:39   can be twice as loud as like oh no right [TS]

01:08:42   here we go [TS]

01:08:43   already I can imagine all the people on [TS]

01:08:45   the bus and everywhere else in public [TS]

01:08:47   who seem to think that it's okay to be [TS]

01:08:49   on speakerphone or playing music in [TS]

01:08:51   public the playing music thing is [TS]

01:08:53   infuriating and you shouldn't do that to [TS]

01:08:55   like I don't accept and when someone [TS]

01:08:57   gets on the train [TS]

01:08:58   listening to music on their phone really [TS]

01:08:59   loud i think that's obnoxious and they [TS]

01:09:01   should be slapped em but there's [TS]

01:09:03   something about the personal [TS]

01:09:04   conversations on speakerphone in public [TS]

01:09:07   places that's even weirder because [TS]

01:09:09   you're sort of hearing these personal [TS]

01:09:11   conversations it's like you're being [TS]

01:09:13   like a creepy eavesdropper right you [TS]

01:09:16   don't even want to be a creepy [TS]

01:09:17   eavesdropper it's like I don't even want [TS]

01:09:19   to hear this don't make me hear you [TS]

01:09:21   talking about this personal stuff [TS]

01:09:23   wow I'm sorry Brady doesn't it fit my [TS]

01:09:27   next one and this is something that I [TS]

01:09:30   could talk for a long time about [TS]

01:09:31   australian television and Australian [TS]

01:09:33   news and the things about that annoy me [TS]

01:09:35   after the past few weeks but i will pick [TS]

01:09:38   just one [TS]

01:09:39   ok and the one is the misuse of the word [TS]

01:09:43   allegedly because I think journalists [TS]

01:09:47   always think that using the word [TS]

01:09:49   allegedly gives them this cloak of [TS]

01:09:52   invincibility [TS]

01:09:53   yeah isn't that a get-out-of-jail-free [TS]

01:09:54   card for all accusations yeah exactly [TS]

01:09:57   and of course that's not true but [TS]

01:09:59   journalists like to do it they think if [TS]

01:10:01   they say allegedly you know he allegedly [TS]

01:10:02   murdered someone right that's okay fair [TS]

01:10:05   enough [TS]

01:10:06   that's a different discussion but the [TS]

01:10:08   thing i don't like is they use it in the [TS]

01:10:11   wrong way at the wrong time like they [TS]

01:10:13   will say the person was allegedly found [TS]

01:10:16   dead in the house man now Billy blog has [TS]

01:10:19   been accused of murder when there is no [TS]

01:10:21   doubt the person has been found dead in [TS]

01:10:23   the house that's like the fact and it's [TS]

01:10:26   the murder that is the allegation so I [TS]

01:10:28   don't like it when people say allegedly [TS]

01:10:30   in front of things that are patiently [TS]

01:10:32   fat [TS]

01:10:32   that's because they don't know where [TS]

01:10:34   they're supposed to put the allegedly if [TS]

01:10:36   a man is found dead with stab wounds [TS]

01:10:39   he's found dead with stab wounds who now [TS]

01:10:41   who stabbed him and how it was done [TS]

01:10:43   that's all the allegedly stuff that's [TS]

01:10:45   what you put the allegedly in front if [TS]

01:10:46   you don't have to say allegedly in front [TS]

01:10:48   of things that are obviously facts [TS]

01:10:50   ok so like a reporter's believe that [TS]

01:10:52   allegedly is a word that gets them out [TS]

01:10:53   of trouble [TS]

01:10:54   yeah there should always be a bias to [TS]

01:10:57   say that word sooner and more frequently [TS]

01:11:00   than appropriate because the downsides [TS]

01:11:03   using the word allegedly wrong is Brady [TS]

01:11:07   gets annoyed right but the upside is [TS]

01:11:09   they feel like they've covered [TS]

01:11:10   themselves for anything that might be [TS]

01:11:13   possibly wrong [TS]

01:11:14   no but you start to look stupid like if [TS]

01:11:16   you say a plane was allegedly flown into [TS]

01:11:20   the World Trade Center right like you [TS]

01:11:22   look like an idiot because there's no [TS]

01:11:25   allegation there's nothing to be proved [TS]

01:11:27   or disproved unless you're a real [TS]

01:11:29   nutcase you're actually going to find [TS]

01:11:30   people who will disagree with you on [TS]

01:11:31   that one email Brady clearly that [TS]

01:11:35   happened now who did it and why they did [TS]

01:11:38   it and how they did it [TS]

01:11:40   that's where all the allegation start [TS]

01:11:41   because that's where investigation needs [TS]

01:11:43   to be done [TS]

01:11:43   who but like the incident happened who [TS]

01:11:46   the car crash happened and someone died [TS]

01:11:49   that would be there is no allegation [TS]

01:11:50   necessary I know what you're saying but [TS]

01:11:51   I think if I was a reporter on TV I [TS]

01:11:53   would sprinkle allegedly all over the [TS]

01:11:55   place allegedly supposedly an hour every [TS]

01:11:59   other sentence just well having worked [TS]

01:12:01   in the media in Australia and in the UK [TS]

01:12:03   in the UK where I think they know what [TS]

01:12:04   they're doing with that going back to [TS]

01:12:06   Australia this time after having not [TS]

01:12:08   seen it for four years I felt they [TS]

01:12:10   looked silly didn't feel like amateur [TS]

01:12:12   hour is that what you're saying it felt [TS]

01:12:14   like they didn't know what they were [TS]

01:12:15   doing and I would just dropping it in [TS]

01:12:16   everywhere because they didn't know and [TS]

01:12:20   you know when you see professionals [TS]

01:12:21   using it properly [TS]

01:12:22   fair enough but this was silly it [TS]

01:12:25   papercut me gray Freddie doesn't want [TS]

01:12:27   his fax allegedly he wants them actually [TS]

01:12:29   the final one [TS]

01:12:31   this is a little bit nation it really [TS]

01:12:33   got me during the Olympics but I just [TS]

01:12:34   have to mention it because even though [TS]

01:12:36   the Olympics are over the BBC are [TS]

01:12:38   persisting with this program they're [TS]

01:12:40   reading called get inspired [TS]

01:12:42   oh my god that sounds awful yeah [TS]

01:12:44   it pertains to sport and the thing is [TS]

01:12:47   they're trying to get people to [TS]

01:12:48   participate in sport i guess it's one of [TS]

01:12:50   these things where they can say we're [TS]

01:12:51   helping make Britain's healthier by [TS]

01:12:53   getting them to exercise more love to [TS]

01:12:56   see some numbers on that and so they're [TS]

01:12:59   trying to hashtag get inspired people [TS]

01:13:02   all the time who I am and usually it was [TS]

01:13:04   no we're going to the archery where [TS]

01:13:06   someone from Britain has just won a gold [TS]

01:13:08   medal in the 20-metre archery shoot and [TS]

01:13:11   i'll show you the highlights and [TS]

01:13:12   afterwards they'll say you know by the [TS]

01:13:14   way [TS]

01:13:14   hashtag get inspired why don't you go to [TS]

01:13:16   our website and will show you where all [TS]

01:13:18   the archery clubs are in your local area [TS]

01:13:20   mmm and it just infiltrated the Olympics [TS]

01:13:23   something terribly and I thought okay at [TS]

01:13:25   least it's over now but they're still [TS]

01:13:26   doing it and it's kind of annoying when [TS]

01:13:29   you're watching sport to then be [TS]

01:13:31   reminded that you know you don't play [TS]

01:13:33   the sport you should play the sport you [TS]

01:13:34   should get fit [TS]

01:13:35   it's like shut up man its gonna watch [TS]

01:13:38   this poor you don't have to know about [TS]

01:13:39   me sitting on the couch eating chips [TS]

01:13:41   okay we're like wait a minute is that [TS]

01:13:43   whatever is brady going with is that [TS]

01:13:45   like some are always i feel like i'm in [TS]

01:13:46   this fog of a story trying to figure [TS]

01:13:48   like we're gonna slap the thing that [TS]

01:13:51   really bothers you is you feel like the [TS]

01:13:53   TV is judging you for the cat that [TS]

01:13:57   doesn't know any but that's not the part [TS]

01:13:59   that annoys me the part that annoys me [TS]

01:14:01   is the worthy in a silver it's the whole [TS]

01:14:04   house and this other it's not enough [TS]

01:14:06   just to show sport and let us watch the [TS]

01:14:08   Olympics the BBC Hester and you know I [TS]

01:14:11   don't like being a baby sea bass sure i [TS]

01:14:12   worked there for many years and other [TS]

01:14:14   maybe say but the baby C can be a bit [TS]

01:14:17   guilty of having to make everything [TS]

01:14:18   worthy and everything like wholesome and [TS]

01:14:21   have a good cause to her and sometimes [TS]

01:14:23   you just want to watch the sport and [TS]

01:14:25   think that was awesome you don't want to [TS]

01:14:27   then be told by the way that's all get [TS]

01:14:29   inspired all jump on the penis bus [TS]

01:14:32   together and go and get fit [TS]

01:14:33   it's not that I feel like they're [TS]

01:14:35   judging me and making me feel like a [TS]

01:14:36   slob [TS]

01:14:37   it's the goody-two-shoes and summer it's [TS]

01:14:38   just laid on a bit thick for me it's a [TS]

01:14:41   paper cut [TS]

01:14:42   well the thing with this the hashtag [TS]

01:14:44   campaign which is talking about like oh [TS]

01:14:46   the BBC knows what they're doing they [TS]

01:14:48   certainly don't know what they're doing [TS]

01:14:50   with picking hashtags because [TS]

01:14:52   hashtag get inspired is so broad like of [TS]

01:14:54   course other people are going to be [TS]

01:14:56   using it i'm looking through twitter [TS]

01:14:57   right now and it seems like hashtag get [TS]

01:15:00   inspired used for many things [TS]

01:15:02   it's not just use for the BBC so [TS]

01:15:04   scrolling through here there are many [TS]

01:15:06   many other things that people want to [TS]

01:15:08   use hashtag get inspired for so BBC you [TS]

01:15:10   done a terrible job of picking a hashtag [TS]

01:15:12   of course somebody else is going to have [TS]

01:15:13   that that's no good and got us some of [TS]

01:15:16   these things dumb inspiration is so so [TS]

01:15:20   worthless is a half-life of three [TS]

01:15:23   minutes [TS]

01:15:24   that's what annoys me gray not that they [TS]

01:15:26   know that I'm eating chips while i watch [TS]

01:15:28   the actually it's the whole poster of an [TS]

01:15:31   eagle with saw written on it on the [TS]

01:15:33   office it's the hashtag equivalent of [TS]

01:15:35   that [TS]

01:15:35   yeah it totally is i cannot imagine if [TS]

01:15:38   you actually interview elite athletes or [TS]

01:15:40   anybody who is elite at anything that [TS]

01:15:43   they actually everyday wake up and feel [TS]

01:15:46   genuinely inspired I don't think that's [TS]

01:15:48   how people become professional sports [TS]

01:15:51   players if you are relying on [TS]

01:15:53   inspiration to get you off of your couch [TS]

01:15:55   right in the chips out of your mouth and [TS]

01:15:57   haha onto the jousting court like I [TS]

01:16:00   don't think that's really going to work [TS]

01:16:02   in the long run like if you have to be [TS]

01:16:03   inspired every morning for that to [TS]

01:16:06   happen like that's not how this works [TS]

01:16:07   that's not how many think works [TS]

01:16:09   inspiration dumb and worthless this [TS]

01:16:14   episode of Hello internet is brought to [TS]

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01:18:03   know what we're about to talk about [TS]

01:18:04   breaks it here ok and i find this [TS]

01:18:06   interesting because you and I spoke [TS]

01:18:09   about a bit probably less on the podcast [TS]

01:18:12   because between each other we speak [TS]

01:18:14   about breaks a quiet beforehand just [TS]

01:18:16   over you know at the public something [TS]

01:18:17   before the vote blue ice room and then [TS]

01:18:20   just before it happened after happened I [TS]

01:18:22   suddenly got really passionate about it [TS]

01:18:24   i got really fired up about it and it [TS]

01:18:26   really affected me for a while and now [TS]

01:18:27   I'm kind of over and I've moved on but [TS]

01:18:30   it was like only now are you beginning [TS]

01:18:33   to get really like interested in that I [TS]

01:18:36   wouldn't say passionate because you know [TS]

01:18:37   there aren't that many things that i [TS]

01:18:38   would describe you as passionate about [TS]

01:18:40   but he's looking here at the show notes [TS]

01:18:42   so let's see that list okay because all [TS]

01:18:45   these bullet points and all these things [TS]

01:18:46   and suddenly like it's like the giant [TS]

01:18:49   has awoken and you've just realized it [TS]

01:18:51   happened I know you made a video about [TS]

01:18:53   you know you were quite aware it was [TS]

01:18:55   happening up but it's like you're firing [TS]

01:18:57   up about it now is that right [TS]

01:18:59   no that's not right I'm not fired up [TS]

01:19:00   about it this is I think a funny side [TS]

01:19:02   effect of since in that video you [TS]

01:19:05   mentioned I kind of went public on the [TS]

01:19:08   record with a guess about the future [TS]

01:19:11   with some probabilities [TS]

01:19:13   yeah I find myself suddenly much more [TS]

01:19:17   invested in seeing what happens like I [TS]

01:19:20   really want to know what is going to be [TS]

01:19:21   the end result of this okay because I've [TS]

01:19:24   gone on record saying here's my probable [TS]

01:19:27   outcomes for you know what's going to [TS]

01:19:29   occur with this breakfast thing so you [TS]

01:19:30   feel like you're on the hook of it yeah [TS]

01:19:32   I feel like I'm on the hook a bit and [TS]

01:19:34   it's just like I think like i said when [TS]

01:19:37   i first did that breakfast video I for a [TS]

01:19:39   while I just didn't really think about [TS]

01:19:41   this topic I didn't find it super [TS]

01:19:43   engaging but I find a lot of the post [TS]

01:19:47   stuff way more interesting because we're [TS]

01:19:52   in this bizarre no rules land [TS]

01:19:55   nobody knows there's no clear guidance [TS]

01:19:58   on anything that makes to me like what [TS]

01:20:00   actually occurs much more interesting in [TS]

01:20:06   a way it's all up in the air in my view [TS]

01:20:08   there's some kind of like power grab [TS]

01:20:10   going on or like this stuff happening [TS]

01:20:12   behind the scenes like who knows what [TS]

01:20:14   it's impossible to see the clear path [TS]

01:20:17   and so that's why I find this kind of [TS]

01:20:18   interesting note let's do a great what [TS]

01:20:20   are some of the points here that I've [TS]

01:20:21   been catching your eye on the last [TS]

01:20:23   couple weeks [TS]

01:20:23   the main thing I want to talk about is [TS]

01:20:25   like this timeline that i think is kind [TS]

01:20:28   of interesting so when Rex it occurred [TS]

01:20:30   the vote happened couple months ago now [TS]

01:20:32   and from then until now it's been all [TS]

01:20:36   quiet on the western front and I've been [TS]

01:20:38   making some jokey tweets between then [TS]

01:20:40   and now about like haven't heard [TS]

01:20:42   anything about this breaks it's like [TS]

01:20:43   everybody put their heads down and for a [TS]

01:20:45   while it seemed like they were just [TS]

01:20:47   trying to pretend that it didn't happen [TS]

01:20:48   as I wonder what's going to happen but [TS]

01:20:52   just in the past couple weeks it to me [TS]

01:20:54   it seems like the brexit creature has [TS]

01:20:56   woken up and now there are things [TS]

01:20:59   possibly occurring [TS]

01:21:00   yeah and it all started with Theresa May [TS]

01:21:03   the British Prime Minister giving a [TS]

01:21:05   little speech about two weeks ago saying [TS]

01:21:08   that Rex it was definitely for sures [TS]

01:21:13   100-percent for real going to happen by [TS]

01:21:16   the end of march by which they mean [TS]

01:21:19   they're actually going to invoke Article [TS]

01:21:20   50 and start the two year long process [TS]

01:21:23   by which breaks that will occur [TS]

01:21:24   yeah by the end of March even the [TS]

01:21:26   obvious [TS]

01:21:27   people in Europe watch the news so they [TS]

01:21:29   know what's coming [TS]

01:21:30   this is the official notification to [TS]

01:21:32   Europe that we're leaving the club and [TS]

01:21:34   as soon as you do that soon as you give [TS]

01:21:36   the official notification you're out of [TS]

01:21:38   the club in two years no matter what so [TS]

01:21:41   if you haven't got your ducks in a row [TS]

01:21:43   and all your new treaties and agreements [TS]

01:21:44   in place by then you're out on your own [TS]

01:21:47   so you've got this two-year mad rush to [TS]

01:21:50   have all your right reasons in place [TS]

01:21:51   before you are out of the club right [TS]

01:21:54   that's what occurs and have to figure [TS]

01:21:56   out everything in those two years and I [TS]

01:22:00   just find myself constantly speculating [TS]

01:22:02   like I don't know what's occurring [TS]

01:22:07   welcome to the United Kingdom never [TS]

01:22:10   stood you have it but I've never be like [TS]

01:22:13   I keep trying to play this game of the [TS]

01:22:17   sort of like what i was doing in that [TS]

01:22:18   first video of I think people let's just [TS]

01:22:22   say they overvalue the influence that [TS]

01:22:25   citizens and their desires have on the [TS]

01:22:27   actual mechanisms of power i think that [TS]

01:22:30   the people in power do things that the [TS]

01:22:32   citizens want when it is convenient and [TS]

01:22:34   not when it is inconvenient and so this [TS]

01:22:37   is why i like the breakfast thing I find [TS]

01:22:38   super interesting and even though like [TS]

01:22:40   okay so Theresa May comes out and she [TS]

01:22:41   says invoke Article 50 by the end of [TS]

01:22:44   March all i hear is but not yet right [TS]

01:22:49   like we could invoke Article 50 right [TS]

01:22:51   now but later and to me this seems like [TS]

01:22:55   it looks like it's another stalling [TS]

01:22:57   tactic but I can't figure out like I'm [TS]

01:23:00   trying to look deep into Reese amazed [TS]

01:23:02   eyes when she's giving a speech like [TS]

01:23:04   what's going on in that head Theresa May [TS]

01:23:06   like what's the sum of the force diagram [TS]

01:23:09   of influences upon you i can tell you [TS]

01:23:12   what they are [TS]

01:23:12   what do you think they are what do you [TS]

01:23:13   think they are they are remain in power [TS]

01:23:16   for as long as possible and get [TS]

01:23:18   reelected of course [TS]

01:23:19   yeah that's what's going on that's what [TS]

01:23:22   every politician wants stay in power as [TS]

01:23:25   long as possible so what I mean they're [TS]

01:23:27   like what's the influence upon her is [TS]

01:23:28   like what is especially because of the [TS]

01:23:31   weird way that the UK government works [TS]

01:23:32   with the Prime Minister is not elected [TS]

01:23:34   directly like I just don't know what it [TS]

01:23:38   is that she wants [TS]

01:23:39   I try to look at actions as opposed to [TS]

01:23:41   words and even though the government has [TS]

01:23:43   come out and has sounded pretty Rex it [TS]

01:23:46   is definitely going to happen we're [TS]

01:23:47   going to follow the will of the people [TS]

01:23:48   which is so clear from the election it [TS]

01:23:51   still looks to me like it's just [TS]

01:23:53   stalling [TS]

01:23:53   I just I can't help but see continued [TS]

01:23:55   stalling I mean I'm not telling you [TS]

01:23:57   anything you don't know here of course [TS]

01:23:58   but the reason it's incredibly [TS]

01:24:00   complicated because without simple to [TS]

01:24:02   say she wants to stay in Paris long as [TS]

01:24:03   possible and get reelected [TS]

01:24:05   mmm the things that affect that have [TS]

01:24:08   multiple interests the people the [TS]

01:24:11   majority of people want to leave a you [TS]

01:24:15   that's what they voted for as [TS]

01:24:16   unbelievable as that is to me that's [TS]

01:24:18   what they voted for who she also has a [TS]

01:24:21   lot of interests within the party she [TS]

01:24:23   has to balance of course then she also [TS]

01:24:25   has the business world she has to [TS]

01:24:27   balance which overall doesn't want to [TS]

01:24:30   come out of the way you are responsible [TS]

01:24:32   for all the money she needs to get [TS]

01:24:33   reelected look so the thing she needs to [TS]

01:24:36   do to stay in power is figure out who to [TS]

01:24:40   placate and how much that's the [TS]

01:24:42   difficult thing she has I don't think [TS]

01:24:44   she has a particularly firm belief on I [TS]

01:24:46   think her beliefs like most politicians [TS]

01:24:48   are probably quite flexible depending on [TS]

01:24:51   what's expedient and in their best [TS]

01:24:53   interests but unfortunately all the [TS]

01:24:55   people she's having to placate to [TS]

01:24:58   achieve her ends also all have very [TS]

01:25:00   different interests here so delaying to [TS]

01:25:04   match is probably a little bit of giving [TS]

01:25:06   yourself more time you might imagine [TS]

01:25:08   matches also there's probably a lot of [TS]

01:25:09   business and bureaucratic reasons for [TS]

01:25:11   that you don't want to do something [TS]

01:25:12   right before Christmas when everyone's [TS]

01:25:13   leaving you don't want to do some whose [TS]

01:25:15   early in the new year because everyone's [TS]

01:25:17   on holidays and matches probably just [TS]

01:25:19   when any business would make a big [TS]

01:25:21   decision or do some big bureaucratic [TS]

01:25:23   process like invoking article 15 so I [TS]

01:25:26   wouldn't read too much into march as a [TS]

01:25:28   delaying tactic i think once it was [TS]

01:25:31   decided it wasn't going to be done this [TS]

01:25:32   year which was pretty much decided the [TS]

01:25:34   day after the election [TS]

01:25:35   it was always going to be match it's [TS]

01:25:37   interesting to hear you say I guess my [TS]

01:25:40   take on it though is still like the [TS]

01:25:42   thing that occurs is simply the start of [TS]

01:25:44   a countdown clock it's not like over if [TS]

01:25:46   we do it in november we've got to get in [TS]

01:25:48   all those trade deals before Christmas [TS]

01:25:50   right it's like you still you're still [TS]

01:25:52   looking at something that's incredibly [TS]

01:25:53   far away I can see what you're saying [TS]

01:25:54   that but why start the clock now when [TS]

01:25:56   you're gonna have five months of a [TS]

01:25:57   fellow period where all the bureaucrats [TS]

01:26:00   are all going on holidays and having [TS]

01:26:01   Christmas often January when they can't [TS]

01:26:03   do deals with anyone and you know Europe [TS]

01:26:06   goes to sleep over that period as well [TS]

01:26:08   so like why waste clock time [TS]

01:26:11   why waste the shot clock on five months [TS]

01:26:13   that your current user it makes sense to [TS]

01:26:15   start the shot clock and match so you [TS]

01:26:16   can hit the ground running [TS]

01:26:17   I think that is totally fair in her [TS]

01:26:19   speech I couldn't help but notice that [TS]

01:26:21   she kept using the phrase like we will [TS]

01:26:22   invoke Article 50 by the end of march as [TS]

01:26:24   long as there are no unnecessary delays [TS]

01:26:26   currently what is it unnecessary delay [TS]

01:26:29   right those two words are the thing upon [TS]

01:26:33   which all of this hinges now doesn't [TS]

01:26:35   like what is an unnecessary delay who [TS]

01:26:38   gets to decide what is it unnecessary [TS]

01:26:40   delay and the other thing that I think [TS]

01:26:41   is kind of interesting about this is [TS]

01:26:43   what looks to me is almost like a little [TS]

01:26:46   power grab [TS]

01:26:49   is that Theresa May has essentially [TS]

01:26:51   declared there's going to be no vote in [TS]

01:26:53   Parliament's to approve this article 50 [TS]

01:26:56   and vocation at the end of March this to [TS]

01:26:59   me is again I find this kind of amazing [TS]

01:27:01   because it's like there's no procedure [TS]

01:27:03   there's no rules for this is like [TS]

01:27:06   whoever got to the microphone first gets [TS]

01:27:09   to just say like oh I'm Theresa May and [TS]

01:27:11   I'm deciding now there's not there's not [TS]

01:27:12   gonna be a vote in parliament I just had [TS]

01:27:14   the power to invoke Article 50 like do [TS]

01:27:16   you think we don't know we just know [TS]

01:27:19   that this thing exists and someone needs [TS]

01:27:21   to press the button but it's it seems [TS]

01:27:23   like a crazy power grab [TS]

01:27:25   where someone is able to just say like [TS]

01:27:26   no I am the only person who gets to [TS]

01:27:29   decide when this button is pressed there [TS]

01:27:31   can be no overriding from Parliament I'm [TS]

01:27:33   the decider in this in this scenario [TS]

01:27:35   like I find that just absolutely [TS]

01:27:36   fascinating i'm going like how this is [TS]

01:27:39   unfolding it is extraordinary that the [TS]

01:27:41   parliament voted on up because the [TS]

01:27:43   referendum was so nebulous in this [TS]

01:27:45   question though is so lacking in detail [TS]

01:27:47   and now the Parliament itself is not [TS]

01:27:48   even going to be told in detail either [TS]

01:27:50   before it starts [TS]

01:27:52   I will concede obviously someone who [TS]

01:27:53   wish that we had remained them the [TS]

01:27:56   remaining people like me I guess [TS]

01:27:57   secretly thought maybe a vote of the [TS]

01:27:59   Parliament was a fine or like get off [TS]

01:28:02   the hook [TS]

01:28:02   wiggle out of course for sort of hope [TS]

01:28:05   and obviously that's not gonna happen [TS]

01:28:07   and to resume doesn't want to happen [TS]

01:28:09   because it would just cause such a mess [TS]

01:28:11   because the Parliament probably would [TS]

01:28:12   wiggle out of it if it could but that [TS]

01:28:14   will cause so much unhappiness in the [TS]

01:28:16   community that to resume will you might [TS]

01:28:18   be able to get reelected possibly so it [TS]

01:28:21   would just blow up in our face so I can [TS]

01:28:22   see why she's doing it but it is kind of [TS]

01:28:24   extraordinary that the biggest thing [TS]

01:28:28   this country ever does will happen [TS]

01:28:30   without the rubber stamping of the [TS]

01:28:33   Parliament i know there was a referendum [TS]

01:28:35   but that referendum question man that [TS]

01:28:36   was like super vague as to what it means [TS]

01:28:39   so like you'd hoped the rubber stamp [TS]

01:28:41   would say okay we're coming out and this [TS]

01:28:42   is how we're doing it but we don't even [TS]

01:28:44   get to have that the people or the pilot [TS]

01:28:46   never gonna have a say on what the [TS]

01:28:48   nature of our breaks it is that's [TS]

01:28:51   amazing that's how it's played out but [TS]

01:28:52   there you go that's where it is [TS]

01:28:56   absolutely astounding this declaration [TS]

01:28:58   that Parliament will not vote on brexit [TS]

01:29:01   that I find that an interesting piece of [TS]

01:29:03   evidence that contradicts Milo maximum [TS]

01:29:07   brexit prediction because it is being [TS]

01:29:09   legally challenged by the way of course [TS]

01:29:11   yeah it's always gonna be this but it's [TS]

01:29:12   like yeah if I was Theresa May and I was [TS]

01:29:15   thinking like expect right like however [TS]

01:29:16   gonna back out of this you would of [TS]

01:29:19   course say like oh yes we'll have the [TS]

01:29:21   Parliament vote on it and we'll go right [TS]

01:29:23   ahead but if she's trying to override [TS]

01:29:26   the Parliament it leads me to believe [TS]

01:29:28   like the sum of the forces acting upon [TS]

01:29:31   her actually do want brexit to occur [TS]

01:29:34   which I just I find interesting [TS]

01:29:38   there's been this weird thing that's [TS]

01:29:39   been on my mind which is slightly [TS]

01:29:42   kidding into like conspiracy theory [TS]

01:29:44   territory but i can't help but notice [TS]

01:29:46   how the value of the pound keeps [TS]

01:29:49   dropping like everytime Theresa May [TS]

01:29:52   speaks I feel like I want a note from [TS]

01:29:55   her speech writer like when is she ever [TS]

01:29:56   going to give a speech and I want to be [TS]

01:29:59   shorting the pound the day before that [TS]

01:30:02   occurs [TS]

01:30:03   I think this fantastically trivial [TS]

01:30:07   detail but i think is amazing is just [TS]

01:30:09   how in her first speech where she [TS]

01:30:12   announced that by the end of March they [TS]

01:30:13   were going to invoke article 53 made a [TS]

01:30:15   reference to Britain is super strong and [TS]

01:30:18   where the fifth largest economy in the [TS]

01:30:20   world untie me and this speech because [TS]

01:30:23   of the currency exchange rate has [TS]

01:30:25   dropped down to the six largest economy [TS]

01:30:27   in the world not like who [TS]

01:30:30   right that's not great yeah but I wonder [TS]

01:30:32   like when you think about powerful [TS]

01:30:34   forces in the world it almost becomes [TS]

01:30:36   like economically certain to bet against [TS]

01:30:41   britain at least in the short run [TS]

01:30:43   I just wonder like is there some [TS]

01:30:45   incentive to kind of like be able to [TS]

01:30:48   make a bunch of money by betting against [TS]

01:30:51   Britain in the next two years you know [TS]

01:30:55   not doing very well in the short run [TS]

01:30:56   even if I said before like theoretically [TS]

01:30:58   maybe an independent Britain could do [TS]

01:31:00   very well I don't know but it seems like [TS]

01:31:02   pretty sure that betting against the [TS]

01:31:04   pound is going to be a profitable thing [TS]

01:31:05   in the short run like I just don't know [TS]

01:31:08   I just wonder about that but what you [TS]

01:31:09   think it's got a lot for the drop [TS]

01:31:11   I think it might yeah I could see the [TS]

01:31:14   pounds reaching parody with the dollar [TS]

01:31:16   when actual Rex it occurs when you talk [TS]

01:31:20   to people they like oh the uncertainty [TS]

01:31:23   about breakfast is already priced into [TS]

01:31:24   the exchange rate between the dollar in [TS]

01:31:26   the pound but people say that at every [TS]

01:31:28   level and it doesn't matter i like [TS]

01:31:30   people said that before the actual [TS]

01:31:32   brexit election occurred and then of [TS]

01:31:33   course you get the result in the pound [TS]

01:31:35   incredibly drops and people like okay [TS]

01:31:37   but don't worry the uncertainty about [TS]

01:31:38   the future is built into the exchange [TS]

01:31:40   rate now it's like but that when Theresa [TS]

01:31:42   May give the speech like then it drops [TS]

01:31:43   again and she gives another talk and the [TS]

01:31:45   pound it a low against the dollar of [TS]

01:31:48   like a hundred and sixty-eight years [TS]

01:31:50   that's the exchange rate had not been so [TS]

01:31:51   low it just seems incredible to me and I [TS]

01:31:56   don't think that the uncertainty about [TS]

01:31:59   brexit is priced into the pound even now [TS]

01:32:02   I i really do think it could keep going [TS]

01:32:05   lower and lower if the hard maximum [TS]

01:32:09   breaks it actually occurs [TS]

01:32:13   you think so I mean do you think it's [TS]

01:32:14   not gonna drop any lower and I i think [TS]

01:32:18   this is well out of my area of expertise [TS]

01:32:20   to the point where I can't even like [TS]

01:32:21   just say a wild podcast speculation but [TS]

01:32:25   I deny nothing surprises me anymore [TS]

01:32:27   nothing surprises you know now it could [TS]

01:32:31   drop by fifty percent or go up by 50% [TS]

01:32:33   overnight and both scenarios would make [TS]

01:32:35   me go [TS]

01:32:36   yeah I guess that was gonna happen like [TS]

01:32:38   I'm just look I got no idea now I wake [TS]

01:32:41   up every morning just go into a new site [TS]

01:32:44   thinking god what spectacular political [TS]

01:32:47   monstrosity cock has happened overnight [TS]

01:32:50   either on this side of the Atlantic or [TS]

01:32:52   the other and there's always something [TS]

01:32:53   like now it's the smooth sailing this [TS]

01:32:57   past year that the but smooth sailing [TS]

01:32:59   now I have no idea great i mean i think [TS]

01:33:02   the pound dropping is probably good for [TS]

01:33:06   me [TS]

01:33:07   maybe because I in dollars but then [TS]

01:33:10   again I do travel a lot and like you're [TS]

01:33:12   not going to Australia was more [TS]

01:33:14   expensive initiative in and the price of [TS]

01:33:16   things in the UK starting to go up now [TS]

01:33:18   because of this exchange rate issue as [TS]

01:33:20   well so you will have missed it [TS]

01:33:21   probably but it's been a fuel news [TS]

01:33:23   stories over the last few days all the [TS]

01:33:24   big American companies are trying to put [TS]

01:33:26   up the price of just everyday groceries [TS]

01:33:28   in the supermarket's so it's starting to [TS]

01:33:31   kind of hit people's pockets it happened [TS]

01:33:33   with the pricing of a couple of apple [TS]

01:33:35   products there was some speculation [TS]

01:33:35   about that they were like unusually high [TS]

01:33:38   priced in british pounds as like it's [TS]

01:33:40   almost certainly Apple try to factor in [TS]

01:33:42   the cost of the pound devaluing overtime [TS]

01:33:45   yeah you know for the future for imports [TS]

01:33:46   this also is a kind of funny situation [TS]

01:33:49   because if I feel like since again most [TS]

01:33:52   of my money comes from dollars from [TS]

01:33:55   America [TS]

01:33:56   I feel like them in this strange no-lose [TS]

01:33:58   situation that allows me to look at it [TS]

01:34:00   in in this like dispassionate way it's [TS]

01:34:02   like either a dumb thing that I don't [TS]

01:34:04   want to have happen doesn't happen which [TS]

01:34:07   is brexit it's like okay great so we [TS]

01:34:08   stay in the European Union everything is [TS]

01:34:10   fine or her breaks it happened the pound [TS]

01:34:13   continues to crash but it's like plants [TS]

01:34:15   in some paid in dollars that's not [TS]

01:34:17   that's good news for the most part it's [TS]

01:34:20   it seems like it's a win-win situation [TS]

01:34:22   for me personally with regard to [TS]

01:34:25   practice it [TS]

01:34:26   that's why i guess i can i can think [TS]

01:34:27   about it without having to feel like I'm [TS]

01:34:28   super-worried one way or the other about [TS]

01:34:31   the scenario especially again because my [TS]

01:34:33   own particular situation i don't have to [TS]

01:34:34   worry about being kicked out of the UK [TS]

01:34:35   whereas like I no interest in line for [TS]

01:34:37   many people this is not a fun thing to [TS]

01:34:39   think about but I just find myself [TS]

01:34:41   constantly wondering and speculating [TS]

01:34:45   about the motives and desires of the [TS]

01:34:49   people in charge of this whole Oliver [TS]

01:34:53   when they are given a kind of open space [TS]

01:34:57   in which there are no rules about how [TS]

01:34:59   this whole thing should unfold [TS]

01:35:01   I can't remember your video grey I know [TS]

01:35:04   you put different percentages on the [TS]

01:35:06   different likelihood of things like hard [TS]

01:35:09   exit and softer than what was the one [TS]

01:35:11   you put the most likely hood on again [TS]

01:35:12   was a soft the biggest one was the the [TS]

01:35:16   non brexit brexit wish I think looks [TS]

01:35:20   less and less likely overtime if I was [TS]

01:35:23   doing that now i would probably revise [TS]

01:35:26   that down and split the difference [TS]

01:35:29   between maximum brexit and nothing at [TS]

01:35:32   all occurring I think it's like my gut [TS]

01:35:34   feeling right now I don't know but what [TS]

01:35:37   do you think Brady i think at the time [TS]

01:35:38   that your video came out I remember [TS]

01:35:40   thinking that your percentages probably [TS]

01:35:42   quite reasonable [TS]

01:35:43   I now think it's looking like it's going [TS]

01:35:45   to be a pretty hard bricks it i think [TS]

01:35:48   nothing at all is almost impossible who [TS]

01:35:51   everyone's painted themselves into some [TS]

01:35:54   pretty firm corners now the problem was [TS]

01:35:56   to resume the Prime Minister like [TS]

01:35:58   famously was quite wishy-washy about [TS]

01:36:00   what side she was on who he hedged their [TS]

01:36:03   bets and the bricks that has been the [TS]

01:36:05   making of her you know she became prime [TS]

01:36:07   minister because of it [TS]

01:36:08   so she's now had nailed her colours to [TS]

01:36:10   the mast so I don't think she could [TS]

01:36:13   realistically although I deep down I [TS]

01:36:16   think maybe she was a romaine and [TS]

01:36:18   publicly she was a mild remain ER now [TS]

01:36:20   she can't be that unless there's some [TS]

01:36:22   massive upheaval you know the people [TS]

01:36:25   with all the power and our all the [TS]

01:36:26   bricks [TS]

01:36:28   it's gonna happen and I think it's gonna [TS]

01:36:30   have to happen hard now so see what [TS]

01:36:32   happens so you think heart breaks it is [TS]

01:36:34   the most likely option [TS]

01:36:35   yeah interesting unfortunately i do i [TS]

01:36:38   would say like fifty percent had forty [TS]

01:36:42   percent soft and ten percent none [TS]

01:36:45   hmm what do you recommend be your [TS]

01:36:48   numbers on those three just trying to [TS]

01:36:50   mentally sick think like where would I [TS]

01:36:51   put those numbers now i'm really not [TS]

01:36:54   sure I think I happen to like sit down [TS]

01:36:55   and write it out [TS]

01:36:57   I just said the first numbers that came [TS]

01:36:58   into my head it is not how it works in [TS]

01:37:00   no small part because I'm very bad at [TS]

01:37:02   something up to 100 off the topic [TS]

01:37:04   ok right and seventy percent there's [TS]

01:37:07   sixty percent that and forty percent [TS]

01:37:08   this I don't know if I feel like maybe [TS]

01:37:11   it's much closer to like an evenly [TS]

01:37:13   divided pie chart in my mind of what's [TS]

01:37:15   going to occur and it's also a case of I [TS]

01:37:18   think it's very hard to kind of separate [TS]

01:37:21   out your own personal biases of what you [TS]

01:37:24   want to happen [TS]

01:37:25   yeah and how you interpret the news [TS]

01:37:26   results even just in this conversation [TS]

01:37:29   that you slightly moved me from my [TS]

01:37:30   position of Omar CH seems like hilarious [TS]

01:37:33   stalling to maybe that's not [TS]

01:37:36   unreasonable time to do this if you've [TS]

01:37:38   already made a decision about not [TS]

01:37:39   currently in the year but yeah i think [TS]

01:37:42   it's interesting i do think it is also [TS]

01:37:44   under the category of not surprising but [TS]

01:37:46   also interesting that Scotland is [TS]

01:37:48   already working on having their second [TS]

01:37:50   independence referendum yeah but their [TS]

01:37:53   Parliament is busy putting together a [TS]

01:37:54   bill to put another vote to the Scottish [TS]

01:37:57   people for what to do [TS]

01:37:58   that's just total at a mess as well [TS]

01:37:59   because imagine if they did have a [TS]

01:38:01   independence referendum and voted in [TS]

01:38:04   favor of leaving the UK under this whole [TS]

01:38:07   premise of wanting to stay in Europe [TS]

01:38:09   Europe is not going to keep just [TS]

01:38:11   scotland i don't think it's even an [TS]

01:38:13   option yet again will be voting on [TS]

01:38:15   things without knowing what the options [TS]

01:38:16   are but how is that going to work but [TS]

01:38:19   that is going to say okay you can stay [TS]

01:38:20   Scotland even over Nelson's that attack [TS]

01:38:23   little Scotland up the North there [TS]

01:38:24   what'd y más it is the total mass but i [TS]

01:38:28   think last time I was over somewhat [TS]

01:38:29   ambivalent on advising Scotland one way [TS]

01:38:33   or another about how to vote even though [TS]

01:38:34   I want it's got this day but I feel like [TS]

01:38:36   mad Scotland if you get your second [TS]

01:38:39   independence referendum [TS]

01:38:41   you better take back anything though [TS]

01:38:43   that advice is detrimental to my own [TS]

01:38:46   interest in many ways like Scotland's [TS]

01:38:48   take your independence and run think if [TS]

01:38:52   if Scotland does have a second [TS]

01:38:54   referendum I will be shocked if it [TS]

01:38:56   doesn't pass right I'll be shocked if [TS]

01:38:58   they don't say Scotland is going [TS]

01:39:00   independent and we're going to try to [TS]

01:39:01   stick with the EU even if we don't know [TS]

01:39:04   what the EU is going to do or the EU is [TS]

01:39:06   going to accept that like if I was [TS]

01:39:08   living in scotland i would totally vote [TS]

01:39:10   for independence you agree [TS]

01:39:11   no I don't actually really know you [TS]

01:39:15   think Scotland should voters day I think [TS]

01:39:18   leaving now would be even more dangerous [TS]

01:39:20   than it would have been for them before [TS]

01:39:22   the break so vote [TS]

01:39:24   don't get me wrong number amateur and [TS]

01:39:26   don't get upset at me everyone because i [TS]

01:39:27   don't know what i'm talking about but [TS]

01:39:28   like now they would be cutting [TS]

01:39:30   themselves at least before bricks if [TS]

01:39:32   they cut themselves adrift in the UK [TS]

01:39:34   they were still part of Europe now [TS]

01:39:36   they'll be cutting themselves off from [TS]

01:39:38   everything that we kind of them so far [TS]

01:39:40   from Europe in my opinion and nobody cut [TS]

01:39:42   himself off from the size of the UK [TS]

01:39:44   they'll just become a minnow like [TS]

01:39:47   they'll be just like an island I think [TS]

01:39:50   it'd be really dangerous for them to not [TS]

01:39:52   be part of Europe or part of the UK they [TS]

01:39:55   have nothing and don't get me wrong and [TS]

01:39:57   I don't have their independence and [TS]

01:39:58   their freedom and bravery or Latin but I [TS]

01:40:01   think those are just words in this day [TS]

01:40:03   and age agent you want to be part of [TS]

01:40:05   economies and things and and i think [TS]

01:40:08   they could fight to stay because I think [TS]

01:40:09   a lot of them will realize that's pretty [TS]

01:40:11   dangerous for them to always feel I was [TS]

01:40:13   just looking it up how many people live [TS]

01:40:15   in Scotland ok never now but it is a 5.3 [TS]

01:40:20   million people [TS]

01:40:21   yeah so so they won't be part of the UK [TS]

01:40:24   right [TS]

01:40:26   they won't be part of Europe just be a [TS]

01:40:28   nation of 5.3 million people with some [TS]

01:40:32   oil [TS]

01:40:33   let's put them on the chart of Nations [TS]

01:40:34   5.3 million people this is comparable to [TS]

01:40:38   it's actually pretty comparable to [TS]

01:40:41   Norway just about the same size as [TS]

01:40:43   norway norway has 5.3 million people i'm [TS]

01:40:45   sure Scotland likes to think of [TS]

01:40:46   themselves as a kind of Norway also [TS]

01:40:48   comparable to Eritrea slovakia [TS]

01:40:52   and the central african republic right [TS]

01:40:54   that's the kind of ballpark of what [TS]

01:40:56   Scotland would be I don't know I think I [TS]

01:40:58   understand what you're saying about them [TS]

01:41:00   being adrift but I is clear like I'm [TS]

01:41:03   imagining the UK at least for the [TS]

01:41:05   transition time is a bit like a sinking [TS]

01:41:07   ship and Scotland is a bit like a [TS]

01:41:09   lifeboat leaving and you know what the [TS]

01:41:12   50 Scotland I say take that lifeboat see [TS]

01:41:14   if you can attach yourself back to the [TS]

01:41:16   EU nao I think that'd be leaving a [TS]

01:41:18   sinking ship for something potentially [TS]

01:41:21   worse but at least there's a chance this [TS]

01:41:23   ship will get bailed out or stay afloat [TS]

01:41:26   if Europe said Scotland you can stay in [TS]

01:41:28   the EU then i would say vote for [TS]

01:41:31   independence of course but the ease not [TS]

01:41:33   going to say that you're it's not going [TS]

01:41:35   to have them on just on their own [TS]

01:41:37   I don't know maybe they'll do it just to [TS]

01:41:38   give the middle finger to the UK but [TS]

01:41:40   that would be genius funny virus in [TS]

01:41:43   charge of the EU i would totally do that [TS]

01:41:45   actually like I would essentially offer [TS]

01:41:47   a join the EU free pass to Scotland [TS]

01:41:51   Wales and London virus instructor the [TS]

01:41:55   heat [TS]

01:41:56   yeah come on over guys that'll teach [TS]

01:41:59   anybody who wants to become independent [TS]