1:00:00the kind of thing like out is actually
1:00:01worse than doing nothing
1:00:03yeah but because you're not thinking
1:00:04about it in the right way you're not
1:00:06gonna like hearing it though because the
1:00:07first time a self-driving car does
1:00:10swerve to protect its occupant and mows
1:00:12down even one pedestrian you're gonna
1:00:15have one heck of a loss so it's not even
1:00:17going to be like a trial or reflexes and
1:00:19we're going to be actually going through
1:00:21the code of what the car did and that
1:00:24code is going to be directly attributed
1:00:25to the people who created the code so
1:00:28when it gets to court we're going to be
1:00:29able to look at exactly why the decision
1:00:31was made what the prioritizing was that
1:00:34deliberately drove here and did that so
1:00:35it's gonna be messy
1:00:37yeah but i'm still willing to bats that
1:00:40the simpler crash avoidance code is the
1:00:44better option
1:00:45the simpler thing of don't try to do
1:00:47complicated things with swerving just
1:00:50break right and just break away faster
1:00:52than human ever could
1:00:53that solves 99.999% of your interactions
1:00:59and the idea of the car
1:01:01taking evasive action becomes a much
1:01:04more complicated scenario I'm great this
1:01:06is the whole debate but of course
1:01:08there's not ever going to be any
1:01:09controversy where cars just told to
1:01:12break the controversy starts when you
1:01:14start telling the car to swerve break
1:01:17laws to preserve life to drive on a
1:01:20footpath to stop a person smashing into
1:01:22the rocks that fell off the mountain
1:01:24right that this is where the decision
1:01:26needs to be made there's you know if we
1:01:28just make a blanket decision just break
1:01:30and hope you don't hit don't hit too
1:01:32fast that's easy
1:01:33whoo-hoo and the only person at risk is
1:01:35then the person in the car
1:01:36the controversy comes when there's a
1:01:38third parties who were just innocent
1:01:40bystanders who suddenly put at risk
1:01:42because of the way the car was coded
1:01:44this is where the whole controversy
1:01:46comes in someone who was just there
1:01:49having an ice cream on the side of the
1:01:51road but because a cast swerve to avoid
1:01:54the brachs they get run over and the
1:01:58person in the car is still alive and the
1:01:59people who coded the car or well and
1:02:01good and some person who was not even
1:02:03involved in this whole scenario is now
1:02:04dead right I understand exactly what
1:02:06you're saying i am saying though that
1:02:07the more complicated collision-avoidance
1:02:10software
1:02:11just the trolley problem kind of stuff
1:02:13ya might be more harmful than the
1:02:17simpler collision software you're saying
1:02:20cars should not be allowed to swerve
1:02:22they should hit the brakes and see what
1:02:25happens and if we start putting swerve
1:02:27abilities in onto the sidewalk to do
1:02:29something clever which you could
1:02:31conceivably do you saying don't let the
1:02:34cars do that but don't have that as part
1:02:36of the cars programming I'm not trying
1:02:38to prescribe this scenario like what
1:02:41should or should not that the car be
1:02:43allowed to do i'm simply saying like the
1:02:46more you try to imagine the car making
1:02:49more and more complex decisions
1:02:51including factoring in the number of
1:02:53people who are around that it's going to
1:02:54plow into i'm suspecting the higher
1:02:57probability you have like a false
1:02:58positive and the car does something
1:03:00unexpected and causes loss of life that
1:03:02wouldn't have otherwise that's a cop-out
1:03:04I think you're copping out great because
1:03:06deciding to not code the car to make a
1:03:10more complex decision like swerving up
1:03:12onto the sidewalk is still a decision
1:03:14you still decided to leave the line of
1:03:17code out so you still either condemned
1:03:21the person in the car to death by
1:03:23leaving out the line of code or
1:03:24condemned pedestrians to death by
1:03:26putting the line of code in this to me
1:03:28come to the core like what computer code
1:03:30is though like the fewer lines of code
1:03:32is a better thing there's fewer problems
1:03:35that can arise on average like the less
1:03:38code that you actually have there's less
1:03:40room for mistake so again to come back
1:03:43to my question to help me understand
1:03:45your position then let's call it the
1:03:47swerve line of code
1:03:49this is the line of code that gives a
1:03:51car the extra option that if it thinks
1:03:53the breaking won't work
1:03:55it's still going to hit the boulder you
1:03:57can activate the swerve option to swerve
1:04:00line of code are you saying don't put
1:04:02the swerve line of code in because
1:04:04that's making it more complicated to use
1:04:05your way of speaking and therefore is
1:04:09not in keeping with what you're
1:04:10advocating so you're saying don't put
1:04:13the swerve line of code in here is where
1:04:15I am mentally drawing this line
1:04:18yeah I am ok with adding a collision
1:04:22avoidance mechanism that's where
1:04:24I was out of the way of the boulder yeah
1:04:27right what I think crosses into the
1:04:30territory of now you're looking for a
1:04:33one-in-a-million type accidents is also
1:04:38then adding an additional layer on top
1:04:41which is trying to calculate like you
1:04:43can swerve to avoid the boulder but you
1:04:45also want to be looking for
1:04:48are there a bunch of other people who
1:04:50are standing in the road for some reason
1:04:52where you wouldn't expect them to be and
1:04:54then if there are count up how many
1:04:57people there are there and figure out
1:04:59how many people are in the car and then
1:05:02make a decision about whether or not
1:05:03you're going straight or not like I
1:05:05guess where my mental boundary is is I
1:05:08feel like what would i say simpler is
1:05:10better is I mean the car can drive
1:05:12anywhere where there are not things in
1:05:15the way right whatever mechanism it uses
1:05:18for things in the way
1:05:20ok and break and drive where things
1:05:23aren't and I think like that algorithm
1:05:26covers almost every accidents you could
1:05:29possibly imagine the thing that
1:05:30irritates me is the additional moral
1:05:32machine of like also be looking at all
1:05:35of the people and making calculations
1:05:38about what is the most moral thing to do
1:05:40that to me seems to go into crazy land
1:05:42of one-in-a-million kind of accidents
1:05:44that are going to be incredibly rare
1:05:45okay I can see why this is quicksand he
1:05:48to get drawn in pretty quickly too but I
1:05:52think I kind of understand where you're
1:05:53coming from
1:05:54yeah that's all I'm saying is like car
1:05:56can drive where objects are not do not
1:05:58distinguish between what objects are
1:06:00just leave it at that otherwise this is
1:06:02playing in fantasy land of incredibly
1:06:05unlikely accidents and the possibility
1:06:08of error and false positives that causes
1:06:10the carts were when you wouldn't expect
1:06:12it to our greater than the number of
1:06:14accidents that you're going to prevent
1:06:16our lives that you're going to save from
1:06:17adding in trolley problem stuff i think
1:06:21there you have designed more oka not
1:06:23monster car because if your car puts the
1:06:27same Valley on
1:06:29a pedestrian standing somewhere as it
1:06:31does a huge concrete pole that's just an
1:06:35object don't hit objects then I think
1:06:37your car is a probably are
1:06:40it's going to be hard to upset people
1:06:41it's only when the cast is having to
1:06:43identify the difference between a brick
1:06:45wall and Bill blogs that you start
1:06:48getting into difficult territory i think
1:06:50that we're in agreement
1:06:51fantastic we haven't done Brady's paper
1:06:57cuts for a while I have a very fast
1:06:59growing list i feel like this is the
1:07:00introduction to every Brady's papercuts
1:07:03is you sayin we haven't done paper cuts
1:07:05in a while trying to ease you into it
1:07:07because I don't want you to think it's
1:07:08like taking over the podcast if i keep
1:07:10saying that it right the idea in your
1:07:12head that it is occasional then you go
1:07:14okay yeah getting educational yeah I'm
1:07:16have one you're playing mind tricks on
1:07:17me I know what's occurring here your
1:07:19putty in my hands gray you're quite the
1:07:21snake charmer brady and you get into
1:07:24this paper cut corner
1:07:25I think we do a paper corner i have
1:07:27three so now we're tied into it yeah
1:07:29exactly like unless you do some very
1:07:32intricate editing you have to put all
1:07:33three in there
1:07:34here's the thing that I want to get on
1:07:35the record right yeah future listeners
1:07:37of the podcast Brady may at some point
1:07:40say something like oh there's two things
1:07:42we want to talk about three things we
1:07:43want to talk about and I made you know
1:07:45what I'm just going to leave it in there
1:07:46and then there's only going to be the
1:07:47one thing i'm just i'm not even going to
1:07:49try to cut around that anymore because I
1:07:51just gotta push back against your
1:07:53encroachment and they'll think that like
1:07:55I've been forgetful another operator you
1:07:57forgot to mention the second thing when
1:07:58in fact I spoke about it for two hours
1:08:00yeah and out it comes so let's run
1:08:03through ready your three paper cuts the
1:08:07first paper cut people using
1:08:08speakerphone in public places when
1:08:11they're talking to people on either
1:08:13phone calls or facetime it should be
1:08:16legal to shoot those people that's as
1:08:18far as I'm concerned
1:08:19don't do that
1:08:20I didn't say that it was legal no no I'm
1:08:23not saying don't shoot them are doing
1:08:24don't you have a fine i am also saying
1:08:26don't shoot okay I'm saying don't go on
1:08:28speakerphone because grace right it is
1:08:30infuriating
1:08:31this is actually when apple announced
1:08:32the new iphone one of the things I was
1:08:35frowning the hardest at was like oh and
1:08:37we've added an additional speaker so it
1:08:39can be twice as loud as like oh no right
1:08:42here we go
1:08:43already I can imagine all the people on
1:08:45the bus and everywhere else in public
1:08:47who seem to think that it's okay to be
1:08:49on speakerphone or playing music in
1:08:51public the playing music thing is
1:08:53infuriating and you shouldn't do that to
1:08:55like I don't accept and when someone
1:08:57gets on the train
1:08:58listening to music on their phone really
1:08:59loud i think that's obnoxious and they
1:09:01should be slapped em but there's
1:09:03something about the personal
1:09:04conversations on speakerphone in public
1:09:07places that's even weirder because
1:09:09you're sort of hearing these personal
1:09:11conversations it's like you're being
1:09:13like a creepy eavesdropper right you
1:09:16don't even want to be a creepy
1:09:17eavesdropper it's like I don't even want
1:09:19to hear this don't make me hear you
1:09:21talking about this personal stuff
1:09:23wow I'm sorry Brady doesn't it fit my
1:09:27next one and this is something that I
1:09:30could talk for a long time about
1:09:31australian television and Australian
1:09:33news and the things about that annoy me
1:09:35after the past few weeks but i will pick
1:09:38just one
1:09:39ok and the one is the misuse of the word
1:09:43allegedly because I think journalists
1:09:47always think that using the word
1:09:49allegedly gives them this cloak of
1:09:52invincibility
1:09:53yeah isn't that a get-out-of-jail-free
1:09:54card for all accusations yeah exactly
1:09:57and of course that's not true but
1:09:59journalists like to do it they think if
1:10:01they say allegedly you know he allegedly
1:10:02murdered someone right that's okay fair
1:10:05enough
1:10:06that's a different discussion but the
1:10:08thing i don't like is they use it in the
1:10:11wrong way at the wrong time like they
1:10:13will say the person was allegedly found
1:10:16dead in the house man now Billy blog has
1:10:19been accused of murder when there is no
1:10:21doubt the person has been found dead in
1:10:23the house that's like the fact and it's
1:10:26the murder that is the allegation so I
1:10:28don't like it when people say allegedly
1:10:30in front of things that are patiently
1:10:32fat
1:10:32that's because they don't know where
1:10:34they're supposed to put the allegedly if
1:10:36a man is found dead with stab wounds
1:10:39he's found dead with stab wounds who now
1:10:41who stabbed him and how it was done
1:10:43that's all the allegedly stuff that's
1:10:45what you put the allegedly in front if
1:10:46you don't have to say allegedly in front
1:10:48of things that are obviously facts
1:10:50ok so like a reporter's believe that
1:10:52allegedly is a word that gets them out
1:10:53of trouble
1:10:54yeah there should always be a bias to
1:10:57say that word sooner and more frequently
1:11:00than appropriate because the downsides
1:11:03using the word allegedly wrong is Brady
1:11:07gets annoyed right but the upside is
1:11:09they feel like they've covered
1:11:10themselves for anything that might be
1:11:13possibly wrong
1:11:14no but you start to look stupid like if
1:11:16you say a plane was allegedly flown into
1:11:20the World Trade Center right like you
1:11:22look like an idiot because there's no
1:11:25allegation there's nothing to be proved
1:11:27or disproved unless you're a real
1:11:29nutcase you're actually going to find
1:11:30people who will disagree with you on
1:11:31that one email Brady clearly that
1:11:35happened now who did it and why they did
1:11:38it and how they did it
1:11:40that's where all the allegation start
1:11:41because that's where investigation needs
1:11:43to be done
1:11:43who but like the incident happened who
1:11:46the car crash happened and someone died
1:11:49that would be there is no allegation
1:11:50necessary I know what you're saying but
1:11:51I think if I was a reporter on TV I
1:11:53would sprinkle allegedly all over the
1:11:55place allegedly supposedly an hour every
1:11:59other sentence just well having worked
1:12:01in the media in Australia and in the UK
1:12:03in the UK where I think they know what
1:12:04they're doing with that going back to
1:12:06Australia this time after having not
1:12:08seen it for four years I felt they
1:12:10looked silly didn't feel like amateur
1:12:12hour is that what you're saying it felt
1:12:14like they didn't know what they were
1:12:15doing and I would just dropping it in
1:12:16everywhere because they didn't know and
1:12:20you know when you see professionals
1:12:21using it properly
1:12:22fair enough but this was silly it
1:12:25papercut me gray Freddie doesn't want
1:12:27his fax allegedly he wants them actually
1:12:29the final one
1:12:31this is a little bit nation it really
1:12:33got me during the Olympics but I just
1:12:34have to mention it because even though
1:12:36the Olympics are over the BBC are
1:12:38persisting with this program they're
1:12:40reading called get inspired
1:12:42oh my god that sounds awful yeah
1:12:44it pertains to sport and the thing is
1:12:47they're trying to get people to
1:12:48participate in sport i guess it's one of
1:12:50these things where they can say we're
1:12:51helping make Britain's healthier by
1:12:53getting them to exercise more love to
1:12:56see some numbers on that and so they're
1:12:59trying to hashtag get inspired people
1:13:02all the time who I am and usually it was
1:13:04no we're going to the archery where
1:13:06someone from Britain has just won a gold
1:13:08medal in the 20-metre archery shoot and
1:13:11i'll show you the highlights and
1:13:12afterwards they'll say you know by the
1:13:14way
1:13:14hashtag get inspired why don't you go to
1:13:16our website and will show you where all
1:13:18the archery clubs are in your local area
1:13:20mmm and it just infiltrated the Olympics
1:13:23something terribly and I thought okay at
1:13:25least it's over now but they're still
1:13:26doing it and it's kind of annoying when
1:13:29you're watching sport to then be
1:13:31reminded that you know you don't play
1:13:33the sport you should play the sport you
1:13:34should get fit
1:13:35it's like shut up man its gonna watch
1:13:38this poor you don't have to know about
1:13:39me sitting on the couch eating chips
1:13:41okay we're like wait a minute is that
1:13:43whatever is brady going with is that
1:13:45like some are always i feel like i'm in
1:13:46this fog of a story trying to figure
1:13:48like we're gonna slap the thing that
1:13:51really bothers you is you feel like the
1:13:53TV is judging you for the cat that
1:13:57doesn't know any but that's not the part
1:13:59that annoys me the part that annoys me
1:14:01is the worthy in a silver it's the whole
1:14:04house and this other it's not enough
1:14:06just to show sport and let us watch the
1:14:08Olympics the BBC Hester and you know I
1:14:11don't like being a baby sea bass sure i
1:14:12worked there for many years and other
1:14:14maybe say but the baby C can be a bit
1:14:17guilty of having to make everything
1:14:18worthy and everything like wholesome and
1:14:21have a good cause to her and sometimes
1:14:23you just want to watch the sport and
1:14:25think that was awesome you don't want to
1:14:27then be told by the way that's all get
1:14:29inspired all jump on the penis bus
1:14:32together and go and get fit
1:14:33it's not that I feel like they're
1:14:35judging me and making me feel like a
1:14:36slob
1:14:37it's the goody-two-shoes and summer it's
1:14:38just laid on a bit thick for me it's a
1:14:41paper cut
1:14:42well the thing with this the hashtag
1:14:44campaign which is talking about like oh
1:14:46the BBC knows what they're doing they
1:14:48certainly don't know what they're doing
1:14:50with picking hashtags because
1:14:52hashtag get inspired is so broad like of
1:14:54course other people are going to be
1:14:56using it i'm looking through twitter
1:14:57right now and it seems like hashtag get
1:15:00inspired used for many things
1:15:02it's not just use for the BBC so
1:15:04scrolling through here there are many
1:15:06many other things that people want to
1:15:08use hashtag get inspired for so BBC you
1:15:10done a terrible job of picking a hashtag
1:15:12of course somebody else is going to have
1:15:13that that's no good and got us some of
1:15:16these things dumb inspiration is so so
1:15:20worthless is a half-life of three
1:15:23minutes
1:15:24that's what annoys me gray not that they
1:15:26know that I'm eating chips while i watch
1:15:28the actually it's the whole poster of an
1:15:31eagle with saw written on it on the
1:15:33office it's the hashtag equivalent of
1:15:35that
1:15:35yeah it totally is i cannot imagine if
1:15:38you actually interview elite athletes or
1:15:40anybody who is elite at anything that
1:15:43they actually everyday wake up and feel
1:15:46genuinely inspired I don't think that's
1:15:48how people become professional sports
1:15:51players if you are relying on
1:15:53inspiration to get you off of your couch
1:15:55right in the chips out of your mouth and
1:15:57haha onto the jousting court like I
1:16:00don't think that's really going to work
1:16:02in the long run like if you have to be
1:16:03inspired every morning for that to
1:16:06happen like that's not how this works
1:16:07that's not how many think works
1:16:09inspiration dumb and worthless this
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1:18:03know what we're about to talk about
1:18:04breaks it here ok and i find this
1:18:06interesting because you and I spoke
1:18:09about a bit probably less on the podcast
1:18:12because between each other we speak
1:18:14about breaks a quiet beforehand just
1:18:16over you know at the public something
1:18:17before the vote blue ice room and then
1:18:20just before it happened after happened I
1:18:22suddenly got really passionate about it
1:18:24i got really fired up about it and it
1:18:26really affected me for a while and now
1:18:27I'm kind of over and I've moved on but
1:18:30it was like only now are you beginning
1:18:33to get really like interested in that I
1:18:36wouldn't say passionate because you know
1:18:37there aren't that many things that i
1:18:38would describe you as passionate about
1:18:40but he's looking here at the show notes
1:18:42so let's see that list okay because all
1:18:45these bullet points and all these things
1:18:46and suddenly like it's like the giant
1:18:49has awoken and you've just realized it
1:18:51happened I know you made a video about
1:18:53you know you were quite aware it was
1:18:55happening up but it's like you're firing
1:18:57up about it now is that right
1:18:59no that's not right I'm not fired up
1:19:00about it this is I think a funny side
1:19:02effect of since in that video you
1:19:05mentioned I kind of went public on the
1:19:08record with a guess about the future
1:19:11with some probabilities
1:19:13yeah I find myself suddenly much more
1:19:17invested in seeing what happens like I
1:19:20really want to know what is going to be
1:19:21the end result of this okay because I've
1:19:24gone on record saying here's my probable
1:19:27outcomes for you know what's going to
1:19:29occur with this breakfast thing so you
1:19:30feel like you're on the hook of it yeah
1:19:32I feel like I'm on the hook a bit and
1:19:34it's just like I think like i said when
1:19:37i first did that breakfast video I for a
1:19:39while I just didn't really think about
1:19:41this topic I didn't find it super
1:19:43engaging but I find a lot of the post
1:19:47stuff way more interesting because we're
1:19:52in this bizarre no rules land
1:19:55nobody knows there's no clear guidance
1:19:58on anything that makes to me like what
1:20:00actually occurs much more interesting in
1:20:06a way it's all up in the air in my view
1:20:08there's some kind of like power grab
1:20:10going on or like this stuff happening
1:20:12behind the scenes like who knows what
1:20:14it's impossible to see the clear path
1:20:17and so that's why I find this kind of
1:20:18interesting note let's do a great what
1:20:20are some of the points here that I've
1:20:21been catching your eye on the last
1:20:23couple weeks
1:20:23the main thing I want to talk about is
1:20:25like this timeline that i think is kind
1:20:28of interesting so when Rex it occurred
1:20:30the vote happened couple months ago now
1:20:32and from then until now it's been all
1:20:36quiet on the western front and I've been
1:20:38making some jokey tweets between then
1:20:40and now about like haven't heard
1:20:42anything about this breaks it's like
1:20:43everybody put their heads down and for a
1:20:45while it seemed like they were just
1:20:47trying to pretend that it didn't happen
1:20:48as I wonder what's going to happen but
1:20:52just in the past couple weeks it to me
1:20:54it seems like the brexit creature has
1:20:56woken up and now there are things
1:20:59possibly occurring
1:21:00yeah and it all started with Theresa May
1:21:03the British Prime Minister giving a
1:21:05little speech about two weeks ago saying
1:21:08that Rex it was definitely for sures
1:21:13100-percent for real going to happen by
1:21:16the end of march by which they mean
1:21:19they're actually going to invoke Article
1:21:2050 and start the two year long process
1:21:23by which breaks that will occur
1:21:24yeah by the end of March even the
1:21:26obvious
1:21:27people in Europe watch the news so they
1:21:29know what's coming
1:21:30this is the official notification to
1:21:32Europe that we're leaving the club and
1:21:34as soon as you do that soon as you give
1:21:36the official notification you're out of
1:21:38the club in two years no matter what so
1:21:41if you haven't got your ducks in a row
1:21:43and all your new treaties and agreements
1:21:44in place by then you're out on your own
1:21:47so you've got this two-year mad rush to
1:21:50have all your right reasons in place
1:21:51before you are out of the club right
1:21:54that's what occurs and have to figure
1:21:56out everything in those two years and I
1:22:00just find myself constantly speculating
1:22:02like I don't know what's occurring
1:22:07welcome to the United Kingdom never
1:22:10stood you have it but I've never be like
1:22:13I keep trying to play this game of the
1:22:17sort of like what i was doing in that
1:22:18first video of I think people let's just
1:22:22say they overvalue the influence that
1:22:25citizens and their desires have on the
1:22:27actual mechanisms of power i think that
1:22:30the people in power do things that the
1:22:32citizens want when it is convenient and
1:22:34not when it is inconvenient and so this
1:22:37is why i like the breakfast thing I find
1:22:38super interesting and even though like
1:22:40okay so Theresa May comes out and she
1:22:41says invoke Article 50 by the end of
1:22:44March all i hear is but not yet right
1:22:49like we could invoke Article 50 right
1:22:51now but later and to me this seems like
1:22:55it looks like it's another stalling
1:22:57tactic but I can't figure out like I'm
1:23:00trying to look deep into Reese amazed
1:23:02eyes when she's giving a speech like
1:23:04what's going on in that head Theresa May
1:23:06like what's the sum of the force diagram
1:23:09of influences upon you i can tell you
1:23:12what they are
1:23:12what do you think they are what do you
1:23:13think they are they are remain in power
1:23:16for as long as possible and get
1:23:18reelected of course
1:23:19yeah that's what's going on that's what
1:23:22every politician wants stay in power as
1:23:25long as possible so what I mean they're
1:23:27like what's the influence upon her is
1:23:28like what is especially because of the
1:23:31weird way that the UK government works
1:23:32with the Prime Minister is not elected
1:23:34directly like I just don't know what it
1:23:38is that she wants
1:23:39I try to look at actions as opposed to
1:23:41words and even though the government has
1:23:43come out and has sounded pretty Rex it
1:23:46is definitely going to happen we're
1:23:47going to follow the will of the people
1:23:48which is so clear from the election it
1:23:51still looks to me like it's just
1:23:53stalling
1:23:53I just I can't help but see continued
1:23:55stalling I mean I'm not telling you
1:23:57anything you don't know here of course
1:23:58but the reason it's incredibly
1:24:00complicated because without simple to
1:24:02say she wants to stay in Paris long as
1:24:03possible and get reelected
1:24:05mmm the things that affect that have
1:24:08multiple interests the people the
1:24:11majority of people want to leave a you
1:24:15that's what they voted for as
1:24:16unbelievable as that is to me that's
1:24:18what they voted for who she also has a
1:24:21lot of interests within the party she
1:24:23has to balance of course then she also
1:24:25has the business world she has to
1:24:27balance which overall doesn't want to
1:24:30come out of the way you are responsible
1:24:32for all the money she needs to get
1:24:33reelected look so the thing she needs to
1:24:36do to stay in power is figure out who to
1:24:40placate and how much that's the
1:24:42difficult thing she has I don't think
1:24:44she has a particularly firm belief on I
1:24:46think her beliefs like most politicians
1:24:48are probably quite flexible depending on
1:24:51what's expedient and in their best
1:24:53interests but unfortunately all the
1:24:55people she's having to placate to
1:24:58achieve her ends also all have very
1:25:00different interests here so delaying to
1:25:04match is probably a little bit of giving
1:25:06yourself more time you might imagine
1:25:08matches also there's probably a lot of
1:25:09business and bureaucratic reasons for
1:25:11that you don't want to do something
1:25:12right before Christmas when everyone's
1:25:13leaving you don't want to do some whose
1:25:15early in the new year because everyone's
1:25:17on holidays and matches probably just
1:25:19when any business would make a big
1:25:21decision or do some big bureaucratic
1:25:23process like invoking article 15 so I
1:25:26wouldn't read too much into march as a
1:25:28delaying tactic i think once it was
1:25:31decided it wasn't going to be done this
1:25:32year which was pretty much decided the
1:25:34day after the election
1:25:35it was always going to be match it's
1:25:37interesting to hear you say I guess my
1:25:40take on it though is still like the
1:25:42thing that occurs is simply the start of
1:25:44a countdown clock it's not like over if
1:25:46we do it in november we've got to get in
1:25:48all those trade deals before Christmas
1:25:50right it's like you still you're still
1:25:52looking at something that's incredibly
1:25:53far away I can see what you're saying
1:25:54that but why start the clock now when
1:25:56you're gonna have five months of a
1:25:57fellow period where all the bureaucrats
1:26:00are all going on holidays and having
1:26:01Christmas often January when they can't
1:26:03do deals with anyone and you know Europe
1:26:06goes to sleep over that period as well
1:26:08so like why waste clock time
1:26:11why waste the shot clock on five months
1:26:13that your current user it makes sense to
1:26:15start the shot clock and match so you
1:26:16can hit the ground running
1:26:17I think that is totally fair in her
1:26:19speech I couldn't help but notice that
1:26:21she kept using the phrase like we will
1:26:22invoke Article 50 by the end of march as
1:26:24long as there are no unnecessary delays
1:26:26currently what is it unnecessary delay
1:26:29right those two words are the thing upon
1:26:33which all of this hinges now doesn't
1:26:35like what is an unnecessary delay who
1:26:38gets to decide what is it unnecessary
1:26:40delay and the other thing that I think
1:26:41is kind of interesting about this is
1:26:43what looks to me is almost like a little
1:26:46power grab
1:26:49is that Theresa May has essentially
1:26:51declared there's going to be no vote in
1:26:53Parliament's to approve this article 50
1:26:56and vocation at the end of March this to
1:26:59me is again I find this kind of amazing
1:27:01because it's like there's no procedure
1:27:03there's no rules for this is like
1:27:06whoever got to the microphone first gets
1:27:09to just say like oh I'm Theresa May and
1:27:11I'm deciding now there's not there's not
1:27:12gonna be a vote in parliament I just had
1:27:14the power to invoke Article 50 like do
1:27:16you think we don't know we just know
1:27:19that this thing exists and someone needs
1:27:21to press the button but it's it seems
1:27:23like a crazy power grab
1:27:25where someone is able to just say like
1:27:26no I am the only person who gets to
1:27:29decide when this button is pressed there
1:27:31can be no overriding from Parliament I'm
1:27:33the decider in this in this scenario
1:27:35like I find that just absolutely
1:27:36fascinating i'm going like how this is
1:27:39unfolding it is extraordinary that the
1:27:41parliament voted on up because the
1:27:43referendum was so nebulous in this
1:27:45question though is so lacking in detail
1:27:47and now the Parliament itself is not
1:27:48even going to be told in detail either
1:27:50before it starts
1:27:52I will concede obviously someone who
1:27:53wish that we had remained them the
1:27:56remaining people like me I guess
1:27:57secretly thought maybe a vote of the
1:27:59Parliament was a fine or like get off
1:28:02the hook
1:28:02wiggle out of course for sort of hope
1:28:05and obviously that's not gonna happen
1:28:07and to resume doesn't want to happen
1:28:09because it would just cause such a mess
1:28:11because the Parliament probably would
1:28:12wiggle out of it if it could but that
1:28:14will cause so much unhappiness in the
1:28:16community that to resume will you might
1:28:18be able to get reelected possibly so it
1:28:21would just blow up in our face so I can
1:28:22see why she's doing it but it is kind of
1:28:24extraordinary that the biggest thing
1:28:28this country ever does will happen
1:28:30without the rubber stamping of the
1:28:33Parliament i know there was a referendum
1:28:35but that referendum question man that
1:28:36was like super vague as to what it means
1:28:39so like you'd hoped the rubber stamp
1:28:41would say okay we're coming out and this
1:28:42is how we're doing it but we don't even
1:28:44get to have that the people or the pilot
1:28:46never gonna have a say on what the
1:28:48nature of our breaks it is that's
1:28:51amazing that's how it's played out but
1:28:52there you go that's where it is
1:28:56absolutely astounding this declaration
1:28:58that Parliament will not vote on brexit
1:29:01that I find that an interesting piece of
1:29:03evidence that contradicts Milo maximum
1:29:07brexit prediction because it is being
1:29:09legally challenged by the way of course
1:29:11yeah it's always gonna be this but it's
1:29:12like yeah if I was Theresa May and I was
1:29:15thinking like expect right like however
1:29:16gonna back out of this you would of
1:29:19course say like oh yes we'll have the
1:29:21Parliament vote on it and we'll go right
1:29:23ahead but if she's trying to override
1:29:26the Parliament it leads me to believe
1:29:28like the sum of the forces acting upon
1:29:31her actually do want brexit to occur
1:29:34which I just I find interesting
1:29:38there's been this weird thing that's
1:29:39been on my mind which is slightly
1:29:42kidding into like conspiracy theory
1:29:44territory but i can't help but notice
1:29:46how the value of the pound keeps
1:29:49dropping like everytime Theresa May
1:29:52speaks I feel like I want a note from
1:29:55her speech writer like when is she ever
1:29:56going to give a speech and I want to be
1:29:59shorting the pound the day before that
1:30:02occurs
1:30:03I think this fantastically trivial
1:30:07detail but i think is amazing is just
1:30:09how in her first speech where she
1:30:12announced that by the end of March they
1:30:13were going to invoke article 53 made a
1:30:15reference to Britain is super strong and
1:30:18where the fifth largest economy in the
1:30:20world untie me and this speech because
1:30:23of the currency exchange rate has
1:30:25dropped down to the six largest economy
1:30:27in the world not like who
1:30:30right that's not great yeah but I wonder
1:30:32like when you think about powerful
1:30:34forces in the world it almost becomes
1:30:36like economically certain to bet against
1:30:41britain at least in the short run
1:30:43I just wonder like is there some
1:30:45incentive to kind of like be able to
1:30:48make a bunch of money by betting against
1:30:51Britain in the next two years you know
1:30:55not doing very well in the short run
1:30:56even if I said before like theoretically
1:30:58maybe an independent Britain could do
1:31:00very well I don't know but it seems like
1:31:02pretty sure that betting against the
1:31:04pound is going to be a profitable thing
1:31:05in the short run like I just don't know
1:31:08I just wonder about that but what you
1:31:09think it's got a lot for the drop
1:31:11I think it might yeah I could see the
1:31:14pounds reaching parody with the dollar
1:31:16when actual Rex it occurs when you talk
1:31:20to people they like oh the uncertainty
1:31:23about breakfast is already priced into
1:31:24the exchange rate between the dollar in
1:31:26the pound but people say that at every
1:31:28level and it doesn't matter i like
1:31:30people said that before the actual
1:31:32brexit election occurred and then of
1:31:33course you get the result in the pound
1:31:35incredibly drops and people like okay
1:31:37but don't worry the uncertainty about
1:31:38the future is built into the exchange
1:31:40rate now it's like but that when Theresa
1:31:42May give the speech like then it drops
1:31:43again and she gives another talk and the
1:31:45pound it a low against the dollar of
1:31:48like a hundred and sixty-eight years
1:31:50that's the exchange rate had not been so
1:31:51low it just seems incredible to me and I
1:31:56don't think that the uncertainty about
1:31:59brexit is priced into the pound even now
1:32:02I i really do think it could keep going
1:32:05lower and lower if the hard maximum
1:32:09breaks it actually occurs
1:32:13you think so I mean do you think it's
1:32:14not gonna drop any lower and I i think
1:32:18this is well out of my area of expertise
1:32:20to the point where I can't even like
1:32:21just say a wild podcast speculation but
1:32:25I deny nothing surprises me anymore
1:32:27nothing surprises you know now it could
1:32:31drop by fifty percent or go up by 50%
1:32:33overnight and both scenarios would make
1:32:35me go
1:32:36yeah I guess that was gonna happen like
1:32:38I'm just look I got no idea now I wake
1:32:41up every morning just go into a new site
1:32:44thinking god what spectacular political
1:32:47monstrosity cock has happened overnight
1:32:50either on this side of the Atlantic or
1:32:52the other and there's always something
1:32:53like now it's the smooth sailing this
1:32:57past year that the but smooth sailing
1:32:59now I have no idea great i mean i think
1:33:02the pound dropping is probably good for
1:33:06me
1:33:07maybe because I in dollars but then
1:33:10again I do travel a lot and like you're
1:33:12not going to Australia was more
1:33:14expensive initiative in and the price of
1:33:16things in the UK starting to go up now
1:33:18because of this exchange rate issue as
1:33:20well so you will have missed it
1:33:21probably but it's been a fuel news
1:33:23stories over the last few days all the
1:33:24big American companies are trying to put
1:33:26up the price of just everyday groceries
1:33:28in the supermarket's so it's starting to
1:33:31kind of hit people's pockets it happened
1:33:33with the pricing of a couple of apple
1:33:35products there was some speculation
1:33:35about that they were like unusually high
1:33:38priced in british pounds as like it's
1:33:40almost certainly Apple try to factor in
1:33:42the cost of the pound devaluing overtime
1:33:45yeah you know for the future for imports
1:33:46this also is a kind of funny situation
1:33:49because if I feel like since again most
1:33:52of my money comes from dollars from
1:33:55America
1:33:56I feel like them in this strange no-lose
1:33:58situation that allows me to look at it
1:34:00in in this like dispassionate way it's
1:34:02like either a dumb thing that I don't
1:34:04want to have happen doesn't happen which
1:34:07is brexit it's like okay great so we
1:34:08stay in the European Union everything is
1:34:10fine or her breaks it happened the pound
1:34:13continues to crash but it's like plants
1:34:15in some paid in dollars that's not
1:34:17that's good news for the most part it's
1:34:20it seems like it's a win-win situation
1:34:22for me personally with regard to
1:34:25practice it
1:34:26that's why i guess i can i can think
1:34:27about it without having to feel like I'm
1:34:28super-worried one way or the other about
1:34:31the scenario especially again because my
1:34:33own particular situation i don't have to
1:34:34worry about being kicked out of the UK
1:34:35whereas like I no interest in line for
1:34:37many people this is not a fun thing to
1:34:39think about but I just find myself
1:34:41constantly wondering and speculating
1:34:45about the motives and desires of the
1:34:49people in charge of this whole Oliver
1:34:53when they are given a kind of open space
1:34:57in which there are no rules about how
1:34:59this whole thing should unfold
1:35:01I can't remember your video grey I know
1:35:04you put different percentages on the
1:35:06different likelihood of things like hard
1:35:09exit and softer than what was the one
1:35:11you put the most likely hood on again
1:35:12was a soft the biggest one was the the
1:35:16non brexit brexit wish I think looks
1:35:20less and less likely overtime if I was
1:35:23doing that now i would probably revise
1:35:26that down and split the difference
1:35:29between maximum brexit and nothing at
1:35:32all occurring I think it's like my gut
1:35:34feeling right now I don't know but what
1:35:37do you think Brady i think at the time
1:35:38that your video came out I remember
1:35:40thinking that your percentages probably
1:35:42quite reasonable
1:35:43I now think it's looking like it's going
1:35:45to be a pretty hard bricks it i think
1:35:48nothing at all is almost impossible who
1:35:51everyone's painted themselves into some
1:35:54pretty firm corners now the problem was
1:35:56to resume the Prime Minister like
1:35:58famously was quite wishy-washy about
1:36:00what side she was on who he hedged their
1:36:03bets and the bricks that has been the
1:36:05making of her you know she became prime
1:36:07minister because of it
1:36:08so she's now had nailed her colours to
1:36:10the mast so I don't think she could
1:36:13realistically although I deep down I
1:36:16think maybe she was a romaine and
1:36:18publicly she was a mild remain ER now
1:36:20she can't be that unless there's some
1:36:22massive upheaval you know the people
1:36:25with all the power and our all the
1:36:26bricks
1:36:28it's gonna happen and I think it's gonna
1:36:30have to happen hard now so see what
1:36:32happens so you think heart breaks it is
1:36:34the most likely option
1:36:35yeah interesting unfortunately i do i
1:36:38would say like fifty percent had forty
1:36:42percent soft and ten percent none
1:36:45hmm what do you recommend be your
1:36:48numbers on those three just trying to
1:36:50mentally sick think like where would I
1:36:51put those numbers now i'm really not
1:36:54sure I think I happen to like sit down
1:36:55and write it out
1:36:57I just said the first numbers that came
1:36:58into my head it is not how it works in
1:37:00no small part because I'm very bad at
1:37:02something up to 100 off the topic
1:37:04ok right and seventy percent there's
1:37:07sixty percent that and forty percent
1:37:08this I don't know if I feel like maybe
1:37:11it's much closer to like an evenly
1:37:13divided pie chart in my mind of what's
1:37:15going to occur and it's also a case of I
1:37:18think it's very hard to kind of separate
1:37:21out your own personal biases of what you
1:37:24want to happen
1:37:25yeah and how you interpret the news
1:37:26results even just in this conversation
1:37:29that you slightly moved me from my
1:37:30position of Omar CH seems like hilarious
1:37:33stalling to maybe that's not
1:37:36unreasonable time to do this if you've
1:37:38already made a decision about not
1:37:39currently in the year but yeah i think
1:37:42it's interesting i do think it is also
1:37:44under the category of not surprising but
1:37:46also interesting that Scotland is
1:37:48already working on having their second
1:37:50independence referendum yeah but their
1:37:53Parliament is busy putting together a
1:37:54bill to put another vote to the Scottish
1:37:57people for what to do
1:37:58that's just total at a mess as well
1:37:59because imagine if they did have a
1:38:01independence referendum and voted in
1:38:04favor of leaving the UK under this whole
1:38:07premise of wanting to stay in Europe
1:38:09Europe is not going to keep just
1:38:11scotland i don't think it's even an
1:38:13option yet again will be voting on
1:38:15things without knowing what the options
1:38:16are but how is that going to work but
1:38:19that is going to say okay you can stay
1:38:20Scotland even over Nelson's that attack
1:38:23little Scotland up the North there
1:38:24what'd y más it is the total mass but i
1:38:28think last time I was over somewhat
1:38:29ambivalent on advising Scotland one way
1:38:33or another about how to vote even though
1:38:34I want it's got this day but I feel like
1:38:36mad Scotland if you get your second
1:38:39independence referendum
1:38:41you better take back anything though
1:38:43that advice is detrimental to my own
1:38:46interest in many ways like Scotland's
1:38:48take your independence and run think if
1:38:52if Scotland does have a second
1:38:54referendum I will be shocked if it
1:38:56doesn't pass right I'll be shocked if
1:38:58they don't say Scotland is going
1:39:00independent and we're going to try to
1:39:01stick with the EU even if we don't know
1:39:04what the EU is going to do or the EU is
1:39:06going to accept that like if I was
1:39:08living in scotland i would totally vote
1:39:10for independence you agree
1:39:11no I don't actually really know you
1:39:15think Scotland should voters day I think
1:39:18leaving now would be even more dangerous
1:39:20than it would have been for them before
1:39:22the break so vote
1:39:24don't get me wrong number amateur and
1:39:26don't get upset at me everyone because i
1:39:27don't know what i'm talking about but
1:39:28like now they would be cutting
1:39:30themselves at least before bricks if
1:39:32they cut themselves adrift in the UK
1:39:34they were still part of Europe now
1:39:36they'll be cutting themselves off from
1:39:38everything that we kind of them so far
1:39:40from Europe in my opinion and nobody cut
1:39:42himself off from the size of the UK
1:39:44they'll just become a minnow like
1:39:47they'll be just like an island I think
1:39:50it'd be really dangerous for them to not
1:39:52be part of Europe or part of the UK they
1:39:55have nothing and don't get me wrong and
1:39:57I don't have their independence and
1:39:58their freedom and bravery or Latin but I
1:40:01think those are just words in this day
1:40:03and age agent you want to be part of
1:40:05economies and things and and i think
1:40:08they could fight to stay because I think
1:40:09a lot of them will realize that's pretty
1:40:11dangerous for them to always feel I was
1:40:13just looking it up how many people live
1:40:15in Scotland ok never now but it is a 5.3
1:40:20million people
1:40:21yeah so so they won't be part of the UK
1:40:24right
1:40:26they won't be part of Europe just be a
1:40:28nation of 5.3 million people with some
1:40:32oil
1:40:33let's put them on the chart of Nations
1:40:345.3 million people this is comparable to
1:40:38it's actually pretty comparable to
1:40:41Norway just about the same size as
1:40:43norway norway has 5.3 million people i'm
1:40:45sure Scotland likes to think of
1:40:46themselves as a kind of Norway also
1:40:48comparable to Eritrea slovakia
1:40:52and the central african republic right
1:40:54that's the kind of ballpark of what
1:40:56Scotland would be I don't know I think I
1:40:58understand what you're saying about them
1:41:00being adrift but I is clear like I'm
1:41:03imagining the UK at least for the
1:41:05transition time is a bit like a sinking
1:41:07ship and Scotland is a bit like a
1:41:09lifeboat leaving and you know what the
1:41:1250 Scotland I say take that lifeboat see
1:41:14if you can attach yourself back to the
1:41:16EU nao I think that'd be leaving a
1:41:18sinking ship for something potentially
1:41:21worse but at least there's a chance this
1:41:23ship will get bailed out or stay afloat
1:41:26if Europe said Scotland you can stay in
1:41:28the EU then i would say vote for
1:41:31independence of course but the ease not
1:41:33going to say that you're it's not going
1:41:35to have them on just on their own
1:41:37I don't know maybe they'll do it just to
1:41:38give the middle finger to the UK but
1:41:40that would be genius funny virus in
1:41:43charge of the EU i would totally do that
1:41:45actually like I would essentially offer
1:41:47a join the EU free pass to Scotland
1:41:51Wales and London virus instructor the
1:41:55heat
1:41:56yeah come on over guys that'll teach
1:41:59anybody who wants to become independent