4: iOS vs. The World
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hi I'm Dan benjamin the founder
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five-by-five it has been exactly one
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year since I started 5x5 and I wanted to
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take a moment to say thanks so much to
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you for listening for all of your
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donations for your kind ratings in
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iTunes and for all of the support you've
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given along the way we absolutely
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wouldn't and couldn't be here doing
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these shows without your help here's to
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another great year
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this is hypercritical a weekly talkshow
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ruminating on exactly what is wrong in
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the world of Apple and related
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technologies and businesses nothing is
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so perfect that it can be complained
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about at least not by my co-host John
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siracusa you may know him from his
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writing at ARS technica and elsewhere
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I'm Dan Benjamin and thanks for
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listening this episode is sponsored by
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screens from IDO viacom screens let you
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access your Mac from anywhere using any
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iOS device it's a universal VNC client
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you can use multi-touch gestures
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shortcuts and more and you can even
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connect to Windows and Linux pcs which
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is John circuses favorite thing to do
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when he's out of the house it's VNC made
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simple and it only cost $19.99 check it
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out at at doe Viacom slash screens or on
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the iTunes App Store we'd also like to
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say thanks to campaign monitor email
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marketing software for designers
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developers and their clients you can
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conversions and sales and manager
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subscribers with ease and here's some
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news campaign monitor has just released
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a brand new API monthly pricing
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autoresponders and more and you can sign
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up today at campaign monitor calm and
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now that that those things are done I
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can say hello to my very best friend
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John circus nosey syracusa
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I don't dad doing good thanks for your
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help earlier in the week trying to
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figure out what was wrong with that
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drive should we talk about lack of help
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can what now you kind of helped can we
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can we talk about the drive you can I
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think it's an interesting story it's
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kind of a grayscale yeah oh yeah so I
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got a bata bought an older g5 from a
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friend of mine and had an older hard
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drive sitting around I wanted to use in
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this thing and I I i put the drive in
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and booted up the machine launch you
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know booted up the booted from the
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leopard installer and it saw the drive
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just fine but it wouldn't it wouldn't
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let me format it all of the options to
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format it were grayed out as if it was a
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cd-rom drive and so at first I googled
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and looked up you know reasons why this
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might be see if there's another way to
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do it that kind of thing but the reason
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why is I had used this drive in an
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external chassis too and I had used on
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Linux I had used the DD command to put
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an ubuntu install image on it and and of
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course when it does that it does it in
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the ISO nine six six zero format so it
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it thought the Mac OS 10 system saw it
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as as a cd-rom drive even though clearly
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it was a hard drive and it even showed
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the hard drive icon in Disk Utility and
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the Installer it it refused to let me
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format it it wouldn't even try because
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it saw it as this other it saw it as a
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cd-rom drive which of course is
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read-only the interesting that gave it
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the hard drive icon you would think that
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the operating system or that that
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program would make the decision about
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whether I can reformat this and whether
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it's a hard drive kind of it would be
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the same decision so you think it would
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either show the CD image not like you
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format right or the hard drive image and
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let you format yes weird yeah but it
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didn't and I have to try the same thing
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I want to connect it to a Snow Leopard
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machine to see if it has the same
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problem if not I guess I'm gonna have to
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go into Final Linux machine and and use
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that to change it or something well you
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know Michael Westen has DD command so
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you can just wipe the thing from the
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command line that way if you're really
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really really careful that's it
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have to do but yeah it just struck me as
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being so funny because here here's
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something that clearly it recognizes as
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a hard drive based on the icon but based
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on the file format it's thinking it's a
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cd-rom drive so kind of kind of an edge
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case but don't do that of all the story
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never use Linux right so what's up we
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have we have some follow up john from
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from last week amp as always we have
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follow up it but I made a decision on
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the follow up I've decided not to do any
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backup related follow-up this time
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because we just have so much backup
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related follow-up and I feel like the
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show is becoming the backup show right
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in John siracusa so I want to going to
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save that I'm gonna save the backup
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follow-up maybe will be for next episode
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maybe the episode after but there is a
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huge outpouring you'll outpouring of
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people who have things to add or ask or
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say about backups but skipping that for
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this episode yeah before right when we
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were starting people in the chat room
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we're saying hey I wonder if they'll
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talk about backups today no isn't that's
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just just to tell you that we're not
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going to talk about back right so we'll
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save it okay so I've got those notes for
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another episode okay but last episode we
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talked about a aside from backup stuff
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talk to about Mac OS 10 version to be
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determined Lian and we talked all about
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what Apple thought of that I got a
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little bit of follow up on the the lion
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stuff hopefully not a half an hour's
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worth so we can save room for the actual
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topic of today's show one thing that
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people brought up that I should have
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mentioned but totally didn't think about
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but I have thought about a lot in the
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past is the name of the operating system
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and you know that the big cat names
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really don't leak ahead of time for the
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most part we haven't known the big cat
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names of the various versions of Mac OS
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10 right until Apple says so and that
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always I guess people don't care but I
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always cared I thought is meaningless
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really but I always thought it was
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interesting and I really didn't think
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this time around that they would go with
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lion because you know you save line for
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the end wouldn't you because once you do
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the king of the jungle you know it's the
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biggest big cat or yeah you've got
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nowhere else to go right a lion you
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can't go back to like links or Ocelot or
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something so this one's clearly call
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Lyonne and that's kind of like a strong
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hint that this is either at the end of
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the line for cat branding possibly the
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end of the line for Mac os10 branding
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okay that's that's very interesting and
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you know you bring up a great point I
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remember thinking I don't I don't
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especially like the name lion for for
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this as much as some of the other cats
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that are out there because line it
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sounds like lying you know what I'm
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saying is a little things like that and
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so I was thinking the same thing I was
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thinking I want there has to be a reason
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why they would pick lion and and that
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that has to be the answer which is it
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though which is it is it that it's the
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end of end of the end of the line for OS
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10 or is it cat names are done why would
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they why would they go away from cat
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names when there's so many left the
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first thing I would say is that I think
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all of my all the things that I talked
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about in the last episode still stand in
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terms of what the product will be this
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is entirely about naming and branding is
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nothing about the content of the
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operating system so whether or not they
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go away from big cat branding or they go
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away from the Mac os10 branding I think
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the content of the next version of what
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is now known as Mac OS 10 will be the
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same I don't think that because they
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changed the name suddenly I would revise
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my guesses about the you know whether it
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will be more or less like iOS I think
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they're clearly going on that transition
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to make it more iOS like but the
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transition is not going to go any faster
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if they rename things it would P really
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be a positioning thing and just a
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branding thing and maybe it would help
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people feel more comfortable with it but
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I don't think it would help them
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overcome the technical challenges of
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slowly converting this operating system
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and its applications to be a more iOS
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like model so that's what bothers me
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about this naming stuff is that people
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get hot and bothered about it but I
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really think it is a side issue so with
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that without cheating can you name all
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of the versions by their code names
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starting with with 10.0 all the way up
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to ten not seven obviously and ten zero
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was cheetah ten one Puma ten two Jaguar
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ten three Panther ten four tiger ten
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five leopard ten six Snow Leopard and
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then whatever they're going to call this
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one lion they haven't really talked
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about a version a number as far as an
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however
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assumes it will be ten seven and I think
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that's a good bet too but I don't think
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they've actually talked about it maybe
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it's on their website I don't know I'm
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impressed do you know what the code name
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for the public beta was the code name
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for the public beta yeah geez
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that one I that's very time very
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important matter you did so well
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listing those laughs once you say it
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will probably be reminded of about it on
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Kodiak yeah yeah I would have
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that does sound very familiar we had to
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pay 30 bucks for that too yeah happy to
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do it but they did have wine names to it
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day before you'll get the bit in the
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beginning they were going to have wine
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names I don't remember what the wine
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names were but they were for a while
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there I think around the time of Jaguar
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though it was a rumor that the wine name
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was going around and the rumor was that
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they were going to be the official names
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but I guess that didn't get past
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marketing yeah it's only a retron survey
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or some other wine aficionado trying to
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make that stick and once it bounced up
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the mark and they're like yeah no we're
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not gonna do that so so what do you
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think this means though I mean does it
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doesn't mean the end of the big cat
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names here's what I think III think it
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will they will abandon cat names when
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they abandon when they abandoned the Mac
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OS as a whole I don't you really think
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that they do a Mac OS 10 dot whatever
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eight and not do a cat name I think lion
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has to be the end of the cabinet as it
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just makes no sense to do another cat
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after lion unless now it makes no sense
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they're very impressive reading but
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reading that subtle hint from from Apple
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do you think anyone else has picked up
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on this yeah I've talked about it like
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crazy as soon as it was called ly even
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before it was called lion there were
[TS]
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speculation is always speculation what
[TS]
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does the big cat gain I'm going to be
[TS]
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and someone always suggests lion and
[TS]
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then everyone else says no they're
[TS]
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saving that for the end that won't be
[TS]
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until XYZ so so it's clearly it is the
[TS]
00:10:22
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end and it's the end of big cat branding
[TS]
00:10:25
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I would say pretty certainly and if
[TS]
00:10:27
◼
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they're going to get rid of big cat
[TS]
00:10:28
◼
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branding you they could just say well
[TS]
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◼
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we're done with that silly thing where
[TS]
00:10:31
◼
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they were we put a cat in a fair we're
[TS]
00:10:32
◼
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just going to call it Mac os10
[TS]
00:10:33
◼
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another option is they could just drop
[TS]
00:10:35
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the Mac and just call it OS 10 so it
[TS]
00:10:38
◼
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sort of matches better with iOS I don't
[TS]
00:10:40
◼
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know remember when they did that for a
[TS]
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brief period of time
[TS]
00:10:42
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there was this tiny window where yeah
[TS]
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they were trying to call the operating
[TS]
00:10:45
◼
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system that ran on the iPod Touch and
[TS]
00:10:48
◼
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iPhone OS 10 by itself without the Mac
[TS]
00:10:50
◼
►
prefix yeah and then they changed their
[TS]
00:10:52
◼
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mind and decided to call it iOS because
[TS]
00:10:54
◼
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for a long time I was called iPhone OS
[TS]
00:10:56
◼
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running on devices that were an iPhone
[TS]
00:10:57
◼
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right that makes sense
[TS]
00:10:59
◼
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yeah where they called it we're gonna
[TS]
00:11:01
◼
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call it OS 10 which made a little bit
[TS]
00:11:02
◼
►
more than key it's not Mac OS 10 its OS
[TS]
00:11:05
◼
►
10 but then the final decision from
[TS]
00:11:06
◼
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marketing was apparently iOS which I
[TS]
00:11:09
◼
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don't know that doesn't get better it's
[TS]
00:11:10
◼
►
not really very ie so so cute well
[TS]
00:11:13
◼
►
here's here's the question then if if
[TS]
00:11:15
◼
►
that's I Oh s do you think we would see
[TS]
00:11:18
◼
►
X OS now because the I prefix is the
[TS]
00:11:22
◼
►
whole iMac Apple's always done this Alex
[TS]
00:11:26
◼
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you're right because I don't want X OS I
[TS]
00:11:28
◼
►
think it'd be horrible it would not say
[TS]
00:11:29
◼
►
it as X that's always 10 I know I'm just
[TS]
00:11:32
◼
►
asking you I think people ask me these
[TS]
00:11:34
◼
►
questions all the time I'm just really
[TS]
00:11:36
◼
►
but branding Apple's wacky with branding
[TS]
00:11:37
◼
►
like they like simplicity our MacBook
[TS]
00:11:39
◼
►
MacBook is a horrible brand people get
[TS]
00:11:41
◼
►
used to it people used to anything
[TS]
00:11:42
◼
►
that's not a measure of how good it is
[TS]
00:11:43
◼
►
like Wii is a bad name but people get
[TS]
00:11:45
◼
►
used to it and then it becomes fine but
[TS]
00:11:47
◼
►
MacBook is not as good as power buck
[TS]
00:11:49
◼
►
either probably used to that too
[TS]
00:11:50
◼
►
I think I don't think Mac is going to go
[TS]
00:11:53
◼
►
away because think it is still strong a
[TS]
00:11:54
◼
►
strong brand they've kind of realized
[TS]
00:11:56
◼
►
that by calling our Mac books Mac is a
[TS]
00:11:59
◼
►
brand and I think they still believe in
[TS]
00:12:00
◼
►
that brand
[TS]
00:12:02
◼
►
called Mac iOS just who knows who the
[TS]
00:12:06
◼
►
heck knows if this is really but the key
[TS]
00:12:08
◼
►
part of this is entirely up to the
[TS]
00:12:10
◼
►
marketing department and the people to
[TS]
00:12:12
◼
►
make those decisions and it has nothing
[TS]
00:12:13
◼
►
to do with the technical content of the
[TS]
00:12:15
◼
►
operating system the engineering side
[TS]
00:12:16
◼
►
worries about technical content and
[TS]
00:12:18
◼
►
evolving the operating system and no
[TS]
00:12:20
◼
►
matter what they do the marketing people
[TS]
00:12:21
◼
►
are going to do with the marketing
[TS]
00:12:22
◼
►
people are going to do and they're
[TS]
00:12:24
◼
►
really two separate threads so here
[TS]
00:12:26
◼
►
here's a question then what what would
[TS]
00:12:30
◼
►
really be required for them to no longer
[TS]
00:12:34
◼
►
call it or no longer think of it as OS
[TS]
00:12:37
◼
►
10 I mean you know think back to the to
[TS]
00:12:40
◼
►
the old days system 7 became 8 9 10 what
[TS]
00:12:45
◼
►
what I mean obviously with 10 there was
[TS]
00:12:48
◼
►
a huge huge change it was an all new
[TS]
00:12:51
◼
►
operating system at least for Apple I
[TS]
00:12:54
◼
►
mean we all know it came
[TS]
00:12:56
◼
►
next but it was it was an essentially a
[TS]
00:13:00
◼
►
completely new OS I don't know if the
[TS]
00:13:04
◼
►
change from eight to nine would be
[TS]
00:13:06
◼
►
considered a whole new OS but how do
[TS]
00:13:08
◼
►
they you know the windows side of things
[TS]
00:13:10
◼
►
you've got operating systems that that
[TS]
00:13:13
◼
►
are all kind of Co related but every
[TS]
00:13:15
◼
►
time they come out with a new thing they
[TS]
00:13:17
◼
►
they call it something completely new
[TS]
00:13:19
◼
►
they're not releasing you know although
[TS]
00:13:21
◼
►
it might be you you might argue that it
[TS]
00:13:23
◼
►
really is it's not Windows three and
[TS]
00:13:25
◼
►
then four and then five and then six
[TS]
00:13:26
◼
►
they always have these different names
[TS]
00:13:28
◼
►
they're not the lineages are not obvious
[TS]
00:13:31
◼
►
you're not suggesting they're going to
[TS]
00:13:33
◼
►
do something like that you're saying the
[TS]
00:13:34
◼
►
opposite you're saying it's still going
[TS]
00:13:36
◼
►
to be the same OS that we love
[TS]
00:13:37
◼
►
regardless of the name I'm saying naming
[TS]
00:13:40
◼
►
and technology have almost no relation
[TS]
00:13:43
◼
►
like remember we went from system seven
[TS]
00:13:45
◼
►
point five point whatever to Mac OS 7.6
[TS]
00:13:47
◼
►
and there was you know there was this to
[TS]
00:13:50
◼
►
change from seven point five to seven
[TS]
00:13:52
◼
►
point six was no bigger than the change
[TS]
00:13:53
◼
►
between any other seven versions really
[TS]
00:13:55
◼
►
they changed the name of it they just
[TS]
00:13:57
◼
►
change because I felt like it where as
[TS]
00:13:58
◼
►
as you pointed out the change from Mac
[TS]
00:14:00
◼
►
OS 9 to Mac OS 10 with the Roman numeral
[TS]
00:14:02
◼
►
was like a hundred percent change yeah
[TS]
00:14:04
◼
►
so really the naming has absolutely
[TS]
00:14:07
◼
►
nothing to do with the amount the
[TS]
00:14:09
◼
►
operating system changes and any
[TS]
00:14:10
◼
►
discussion that starts from that premise
[TS]
00:14:11
◼
►
or is based on that is just pointless
[TS]
00:14:14
◼
►
discussion to have the names of the
[TS]
00:14:16
◼
►
names and they're fun to talk about
[TS]
00:14:17
◼
►
everything too but they really
[TS]
00:14:18
◼
►
independent of the tech the next time
[TS]
00:14:21
◼
►
there's a a tech jump like there was
[TS]
00:14:24
◼
►
from nine to ten that's probably a good
[TS]
00:14:27
◼
►
topic for another show as I have some
[TS]
00:14:28
◼
►
theories about what that might be and
[TS]
00:14:30
◼
►
possibly when it might come but that's
[TS]
00:14:33
◼
►
and surely they will do a name change
[TS]
00:14:34
◼
►
then but that's not doesn't have
[TS]
00:14:38
◼
►
anything to do with the branding stuff
[TS]
00:14:39
◼
►
Josh in the chat room asks what about
[TS]
00:14:42
◼
►
Mac OS 10 server as a separate branded
[TS]
00:14:44
◼
►
product yeah yeah there was they
[TS]
00:14:47
◼
►
released Mac OS 10 server 1.0 which was
[TS]
00:14:49
◼
►
basically rhapsody that really had no
[TS]
00:14:51
◼
►
relation to the current Mac OS 10 except
[TS]
00:14:53
◼
►
that both had next underpinnings and
[TS]
00:14:55
◼
►
that was kind of a dead product and then
[TS]
00:14:57
◼
►
they revived it and when they revived
[TS]
00:14:58
◼
►
that it was Mac OS 10 server I think it
[TS]
00:15:00
◼
►
was called 10-point Oh where they were
[TS]
00:15:03
◼
►
trying to sync the versions up with the
[TS]
00:15:04
◼
►
real Mac OS 10 but now that they've
[TS]
00:15:06
◼
►
ditched the Xserve Mac OS 10 server
[TS]
00:15:09
◼
►
like is not long for this world maybe
[TS]
00:15:12
◼
►
they'll just keep having it limp along
[TS]
00:15:14
◼
►
and become increasingly more like Mac
[TS]
00:15:16
◼
►
os10 client it already is basically
[TS]
00:15:19
◼
►
identical except for some parameters
[TS]
00:15:21
◼
►
tweaked and tons of new bundled
[TS]
00:15:22
◼
►
applications but I mean I wouldn't want
[TS]
00:15:24
◼
►
to be in that group at Apple working on
[TS]
00:15:26
◼
►
that stuff because that area of the
[TS]
00:15:27
◼
►
business seems to just be atrophying
[TS]
00:15:29
◼
►
well yeah and and and as you mentioned
[TS]
00:15:31
◼
►
there are a handful of other utilities
[TS]
00:15:33
◼
►
and tools but a lot of them were Xserve
[TS]
00:15:35
◼
►
specific a lot of them were x-rayed
[TS]
00:15:37
◼
►
specific I mean if you if you really
[TS]
00:15:40
◼
►
there's nothing that would stop you from
[TS]
00:15:42
◼
►
taking OS 10 as it stands today and
[TS]
00:15:45
◼
►
using it as a server there's almost
[TS]
00:15:48
◼
►
nothing that you really you don't really
[TS]
00:15:50
◼
►
need those additional tools except if
[TS]
00:15:53
◼
►
you're doing it in kind of a a workplace
[TS]
00:15:55
◼
►
environment and you're using it for file
[TS]
00:15:57
◼
►
serving and things like that if you're
[TS]
00:15:59
◼
►
just thinking of it in terms of like
[TS]
00:16:00
◼
►
serving a web server or database server
[TS]
00:16:03
◼
►
a straightforward file server a lot of
[TS]
00:16:06
◼
►
those things you don't even need so yeah
[TS]
00:16:08
◼
►
I mean does it make sense for them to
[TS]
00:16:10
◼
►
maintain OS 10 server for a little while
[TS]
00:16:14
◼
►
I mean right now there's how people who
[TS]
00:16:16
◼
►
put it on their Tower computers to help
[TS]
00:16:17
◼
►
them you know serve they have shared
[TS]
00:16:19
◼
►
home directories or something to help
[TS]
00:16:21
◼
►
them serve a bunch of users and a video
[TS]
00:16:22
◼
►
editing suite there are places for it
[TS]
00:16:25
◼
►
and there are still places for the one
[TS]
00:16:27
◼
►
or two little proprietary features that
[TS]
00:16:29
◼
►
Apple is added because they have their
[TS]
00:16:30
◼
►
own GUI for directory services that's on
[TS]
00:16:33
◼
►
top of like LDAP and all that stuff but
[TS]
00:16:35
◼
►
the other things are just open source
[TS]
00:16:36
◼
►
stuff that they package and throw on
[TS]
00:16:38
◼
►
there it's kind of a melange of Apple
[TS]
00:16:41
◼
►
modified stuff custom Apple stuff
[TS]
00:16:44
◼
►
complete open source stuff and you know
[TS]
00:16:47
◼
►
it's it's a big mishmash that I guess
[TS]
00:16:50
◼
►
the people who are using it want it to
[TS]
00:16:52
◼
►
continue to be supported but for the
[TS]
00:16:55
◼
►
rest of the world it is like let me get
[TS]
00:16:56
◼
►
a Linux server and install the software
[TS]
00:16:58
◼
►
I need to install on it and I'll be fine
[TS]
00:17:00
◼
►
and like you said it has a control panel
[TS]
00:17:03
◼
►
control panel and a neck serve and
[TS]
00:17:05
◼
►
everything that's the only place where
[TS]
00:17:06
◼
►
you absolutely positively need this
[TS]
00:17:08
◼
►
offer because you can't get any of this
[TS]
00:17:09
◼
►
cool xserve controlling gooeys from any
[TS]
00:17:11
◼
►
other company but that's gone away now
[TS]
00:17:13
◼
►
so yeah but that's another topic yeah
[TS]
00:17:16
◼
►
but I got one well do you wanna do one
[TS]
00:17:18
◼
►
more follow up yeah yeah yeah all right
[TS]
00:17:21
◼
►
actually two more follow-ups so on the
[TS]
00:17:23
◼
►
line thing I mentioned that spaces look
[TS]
00:17:25
◼
►
like they were completely gone and other
[TS]
00:17:27
◼
►
people have pointed out that you can't
[TS]
00:17:29
◼
►
really tell because just because they
[TS]
00:17:30
◼
►
didn't demo spaces at all throwing their
[TS]
00:17:33
◼
►
little October demo doesn't mean they're
[TS]
00:17:34
◼
►
gone it just means they decide not to
[TS]
00:17:36
◼
►
demo it but I mean they said Mission
[TS]
00:17:37
◼
►
Control combines you know all these
[TS]
00:17:38
◼
►
things including spaces into one unified
[TS]
00:17:40
◼
►
interface but then they never ever
[TS]
00:17:41
◼
►
showed spaces or at least what we think
[TS]
00:17:43
◼
►
of as spaces and that led me to believe
[TS]
00:17:45
◼
►
that they're just ditching entirely but
[TS]
00:17:47
◼
►
that's my hunches for all I know it's
[TS]
00:17:49
◼
►
still there and they just decided never
[TS]
00:17:50
◼
►
to activate it
[TS]
00:17:51
◼
►
I got impression that they were
[TS]
00:17:54
◼
►
replacing it too though and I I don't
[TS]
00:17:58
◼
►
know I'm on the fence about that I
[TS]
00:17:59
◼
►
really did get the impression they were
[TS]
00:18:01
◼
►
they were saying we're done with it they
[TS]
00:18:03
◼
►
don't really demo spaces that much they
[TS]
00:18:04
◼
►
demoed it when it was introduced but
[TS]
00:18:05
◼
►
they hardly ever you know if any sort of
[TS]
00:18:08
◼
►
demoed in store automatically running
[TS]
00:18:10
◼
►
demo people demonstrating it they never
[TS]
00:18:12
◼
►
show spaces so it could still be there
[TS]
00:18:14
◼
►
and it's all in its existing buggy state
[TS]
00:18:16
◼
►
but I have my doubts but let me write it
[TS]
00:18:19
◼
►
wanted out rightly that we don't know
[TS]
00:18:21
◼
►
for sure and it's just still speculation
[TS]
00:18:23
◼
►
at this point because I don't think
[TS]
00:18:24
◼
►
there's even been a dev build of Lion
[TS]
00:18:27
◼
►
given out to anybody that I know of no
[TS]
00:18:30
◼
►
and the final follow up all the way back
[TS]
00:18:32
◼
►
to the first show was when we talked
[TS]
00:18:34
◼
►
about TV there was this thing that I
[TS]
00:18:37
◼
►
tweeted the other day about some I don't
[TS]
00:18:39
◼
►
know what this company is but some
[TS]
00:18:40
◼
►
companies some experiment where they
[TS]
00:18:41
◼
►
tried to take regular people and have
[TS]
00:18:44
◼
►
them replace their cable box yeah we
[TS]
00:18:46
◼
►
just talked about that on on briefly
[TS]
00:18:48
◼
►
awesome yeah they they is it something
[TS]
00:18:50
◼
►
he'll yeah your holiday or no holiday
[TS]
00:18:54
◼
►
something like that but yeah they they
[TS]
00:18:55
◼
►
and these are regular people these
[TS]
00:18:56
◼
►
weren't people like us these are regular
[TS]
00:18:59
◼
►
human beings and then they like you know
[TS]
00:19:01
◼
►
they did a study but they also videotape
[TS]
00:19:02
◼
►
the people talking about it so you can
[TS]
00:19:04
◼
►
follow the link in the show notes and
[TS]
00:19:06
◼
►
watch the videos and see what the people
[TS]
00:19:07
◼
►
had to say but the bottom line was that
[TS]
00:19:08
◼
►
none of these boxes are ready to
[TS]
00:19:10
◼
►
completely replace cable it's kind of an
[TS]
00:19:11
◼
►
unfair comparison because these boxes
[TS]
00:19:13
◼
►
are not sold as replacements they
[TS]
00:19:14
◼
►
usually set sold is you know supplements
[TS]
00:19:16
◼
►
to your existing watching but
[TS]
00:19:18
◼
►
positioning them as replacements is
[TS]
00:19:20
◼
►
saying here we're going to take away
[TS]
00:19:21
◼
►
your cable really highlights all the
[TS]
00:19:22
◼
►
flaws of these boxes of you know this
[TS]
00:19:24
◼
►
not a lot of content available the
[TS]
00:19:26
◼
►
expectations of television is that it
[TS]
00:19:28
◼
►
doesn't crash and you don't have
[TS]
00:19:29
◼
►
spinning weight cursors and those are
[TS]
00:19:30
◼
►
all over these machines and some people
[TS]
00:19:33
◼
►
were making the point that they don't
[TS]
00:19:34
◼
►
want to be so
[TS]
00:19:35
◼
►
actively involved in having to choose
[TS]
00:19:36
◼
►
what they want they want programming to
[TS]
00:19:37
◼
►
be broadcast at them which is kind of a
[TS]
00:19:39
◼
►
novel concept for those of us in the
[TS]
00:19:41
◼
►
TiVo generation who have already you
[TS]
00:19:45
◼
►
know sort of taking control the
[TS]
00:19:46
◼
►
television and it's not like we're
[TS]
00:19:48
◼
►
sitting there racking our brains out to
[TS]
00:19:49
◼
►
watch we set up recordings in season
[TS]
00:19:51
◼
►
passes for the shows were interested in
[TS]
00:19:53
◼
►
and whenever it's convenient for us we
[TS]
00:19:54
◼
►
sit down and we have a bunch of content
[TS]
00:19:57
◼
►
that we chose ready for us so that idea
[TS]
00:19:59
◼
►
of sitting down in front of the box and
[TS]
00:20:01
◼
►
flipping through channels
[TS]
00:20:02
◼
►
first of all changing channels on any
[TS]
00:20:04
◼
►
modern cable box is so incredibly
[TS]
00:20:06
◼
►
painful and slow that I can imagine
[TS]
00:20:07
◼
►
there are people who are actually
[TS]
00:20:08
◼
►
flipping through channels do you
[TS]
00:20:09
◼
►
remember doing that with like it may be
[TS]
00:20:11
◼
►
the 80s and 90s television could change
[TS]
00:20:13
◼
►
channels really fast in the advert in
[TS]
00:20:15
◼
►
the remote you could change channels
[TS]
00:20:16
◼
►
almost as fast usually hit the button
[TS]
00:20:17
◼
►
yeah like the gag in Toy Story 2 about
[TS]
00:20:21
◼
►
you know going around the horn if you go
[TS]
00:20:22
◼
►
into react does not work anymore for
[TS]
00:20:24
◼
►
kids who are growing up now they're like
[TS]
00:20:26
◼
►
you can't change channels that fast
[TS]
00:20:27
◼
►
because the stupid cable box takes 20
[TS]
00:20:28
◼
►
minutes to sync to the next you know
[TS]
00:20:30
◼
►
yeah you don't even they're there that's
[TS]
00:20:32
◼
►
the whole reason that the guide is so
[TS]
00:20:34
◼
►
critical because you can't she can't
[TS]
00:20:36
◼
►
change channels by flipping a button you
[TS]
00:20:39
◼
►
would go nuts I mean like waiting
[TS]
00:20:40
◼
►
especially when they're you know this
[TS]
00:20:41
◼
►
channels in HD this channel is not and
[TS]
00:20:43
◼
►
you're waiting for your TV to resync it
[TS]
00:20:44
◼
►
isn't horrendously slow that's another
[TS]
00:20:46
◼
►
example of a television thing that's
[TS]
00:20:47
◼
►
gotten worse over time so flipping
[TS]
00:20:49
◼
►
through channels is alien to me but some
[TS]
00:20:50
◼
►
of these older people in the video we're
[TS]
00:20:52
◼
►
saying they just want to sit down and
[TS]
00:20:53
◼
►
flip through the 3 or 4 channels that
[TS]
00:20:55
◼
►
they're interested in see what's on
[TS]
00:20:56
◼
►
quote unquote winning it's a phenomenon
[TS]
00:20:58
◼
►
that like I can't remember the last time
[TS]
00:21:00
◼
►
in the last five or six years that I've
[TS]
00:21:02
◼
►
sat down front of television said let me
[TS]
00:21:04
◼
►
see what's on no I sit down and I expect
[TS]
00:21:06
◼
►
programs that I recorded previously that
[TS]
00:21:08
◼
►
I know I like to be ready and waiting
[TS]
00:21:09
◼
►
for me and I just choose which one of
[TS]
00:21:11
◼
►
them I want to watch yeah well I there
[TS]
00:21:13
◼
►
are a lot of people who turn a TV on
[TS]
00:21:14
◼
►
just to have the background noise or
[TS]
00:21:16
◼
►
they're people who just you know they
[TS]
00:21:18
◼
►
know there's a show on and they maybe
[TS]
00:21:19
◼
►
they watch what's on it before it or
[TS]
00:21:21
◼
►
after it but very much it's become a
[TS]
00:21:23
◼
►
consumer-driven process of how we how we
[TS]
00:21:27
◼
►
watch TV as opposed to a network driven
[TS]
00:21:30
◼
►
process of what they showed to us well
[TS]
00:21:33
◼
►
for some people anyway life is like I
[TS]
00:21:34
◼
►
said you saw the people in this video
[TS]
00:21:35
◼
►
and it was a it's a different world from
[TS]
00:21:38
◼
►
you know my contemporaries or people in
[TS]
00:21:40
◼
►
the circles that I travel in but it's
[TS]
00:21:42
◼
►
clear the people like that are out there
[TS]
00:21:43
◼
►
and it shows that these boxes have
[TS]
00:21:45
◼
►
stalled no chance to penetrate the
[TS]
00:21:47
◼
►
mainstream
[TS]
00:21:48
◼
►
as a replacement or cable and even as a
[TS]
00:21:50
◼
►
supplement it seems like it doesn't fit
[TS]
00:21:51
◼
►
in with their pattern of walking
[TS]
00:21:53
◼
►
television so these are the type of
[TS]
00:21:54
◼
►
people you may just have to wait for
[TS]
00:21:55
◼
►
them to die off before these boxes
[TS]
00:21:57
◼
►
become pervasive yes so what are you
[TS]
00:22:00
◼
►
what are your kids do do they have like
[TS]
00:22:02
◼
►
a TiVo or do they have things that are
[TS]
00:22:04
◼
►
that are theirs that they can watch or
[TS]
00:22:05
◼
►
do they sit down and watch like you put
[TS]
00:22:08
◼
►
on Nick jr. or something they just watch
[TS]
00:22:10
◼
►
they've never watched live TV and they
[TS]
00:22:11
◼
►
never watch commercials either and my
[TS]
00:22:13
◼
►
son is six now and he the only
[TS]
00:22:16
◼
►
commercials he's seen as a two shows
[TS]
00:22:18
◼
►
that he records have one commercial
[TS]
00:22:20
◼
►
break in them and he knows how 30
[TS]
00:22:21
◼
►
seconds get past them so he just
[TS]
00:22:22
◼
►
literally has literally never seen
[TS]
00:22:23
◼
►
commercials at the age of six by the
[TS]
00:22:26
◼
►
time I was six I'd probably seen you
[TS]
00:22:27
◼
►
know whatever it is 20 million hours of
[TS]
00:22:29
◼
►
career right right right
[TS]
00:22:30
◼
►
interestingly the not seen commercials
[TS]
00:22:32
◼
►
does not make him not want to beg for
[TS]
00:22:34
◼
►
toys because well go to the toy store he
[TS]
00:22:37
◼
►
sees the toys there and you don't eat
[TS]
00:22:39
◼
►
ads to make toys tractive two three four
[TS]
00:22:41
◼
►
five and six-year-old so maybe would be
[TS]
00:22:43
◼
►
worse if you saw commercials but no
[TS]
00:22:45
◼
►
maybe the first time a commercial came
[TS]
00:22:47
◼
►
on he called me into the room when he
[TS]
00:22:48
◼
►
was three or four and sits daddy there's
[TS]
00:22:49
◼
►
something wrong with the TV night wire
[TS]
00:22:51
◼
►
where's my show exactly what I didn't
[TS]
00:22:53
◼
►
understand what this way you know it's
[TS]
00:22:55
◼
►
over why is it over it's not only it's
[TS]
00:22:58
◼
►
this commercial they get annoyed now
[TS]
00:23:00
◼
►
like he watches some shows that release
[TS]
00:23:02
◼
►
a new episode every week in a particular
[TS]
00:23:04
◼
►
season and when he watched one episode
[TS]
00:23:06
◼
►
he wants to watch another when I say
[TS]
00:23:07
◼
►
hasn't aired yet and it I still struggle
[TS]
00:23:10
◼
►
to explain that concept that you know
[TS]
00:23:12
◼
►
they make the shows ahead time but they
[TS]
00:23:14
◼
►
dole them out sort of one every week and
[TS]
00:23:16
◼
►
then why can't you just show me the show
[TS]
00:23:19
◼
►
like we haven't recorded to get its
[TS]
00:23:21
◼
►
broadcast and then like it's his mental
[TS]
00:23:23
◼
►
model does not match the actual model
[TS]
00:23:26
◼
►
for television it matches mostly the
[TS]
00:23:27
◼
►
TiVo model yeah it's funny because kids
[TS]
00:23:30
◼
►
growing up now really won't ever have
[TS]
00:23:33
◼
►
the same concept of TV that that we had
[TS]
00:23:35
◼
►
and most of the people who are listening
[TS]
00:23:37
◼
►
to this show probably had to which is
[TS]
00:23:39
◼
►
very very fundamentally different uh you
[TS]
00:23:43
◼
►
know we have all these shows and we
[TS]
00:23:45
◼
►
actually went through this transition
[TS]
00:23:46
◼
►
with our kid he's three being able to go
[TS]
00:23:50
◼
►
from all of that we just got to be
[TS]
00:23:52
◼
►
honest we just kind of got fed up with
[TS]
00:23:54
◼
►
him saying I wouldn't I want to watch
[TS]
00:23:55
◼
►
this one oh but I don't I don't just
[TS]
00:23:57
◼
►
want Dinosaur Train you know I want the
[TS]
00:24:00
◼
►
one where they
[TS]
00:24:01
◼
►
I'm the Triceratops you know or it
[TS]
00:24:03
◼
►
became this specific you know what we're
[TS]
00:24:07
◼
►
putting on a Nick jr. and whatever's on
[TS]
00:24:10
◼
►
that's what we're watching for the next
[TS]
00:24:11
◼
►
half hour while we eat lunch or whatever
[TS]
00:24:13
◼
►
it is you know well while we try to take
[TS]
00:24:15
◼
►
the trash out and do all these other
[TS]
00:24:16
◼
►
things around the house you're gonna get
[TS]
00:24:19
◼
►
to watch a show for 30 minutes and it's
[TS]
00:24:21
◼
►
whatever's on and he there was this
[TS]
00:24:23
◼
►
transition because for for so long
[TS]
00:24:25
◼
►
we kind of doled out to him oh well we
[TS]
00:24:28
◼
►
only want him to watch so much TV so
[TS]
00:24:30
◼
►
we'll give him this show in this show
[TS]
00:24:32
◼
►
because he seems to like him and we had
[TS]
00:24:34
◼
►
to sort of transition it to this is
[TS]
00:24:35
◼
►
what's on and we don't control what's on
[TS]
00:24:38
◼
►
you know the end and that was his shift
[TS]
00:24:41
◼
►
his mindset change was TV is happening
[TS]
00:24:45
◼
►
and we don't always control it so I like
[TS]
00:24:49
◼
►
it so my kids still request specific
[TS]
00:24:51
◼
►
episodes that makes it was nothing
[TS]
00:24:52
◼
►
interesting Evo is it for us do you have
[TS]
00:24:54
◼
►
a description of a show the one where
[TS]
00:24:56
◼
►
the mean dog says X Y Z and then you've
[TS]
00:24:58
◼
►
got to look through the show
[TS]
00:24:58
◼
►
descriptions to find it but at a certain
[TS]
00:25:00
◼
►
point you get good at finding them I'm
[TS]
00:25:01
◼
►
also using it as a way to teach my kids
[TS]
00:25:03
◼
►
to read because you'll make them read
[TS]
00:25:05
◼
►
the titles and descriptions of the
[TS]
00:25:06
◼
►
show's themselves in the menu but it's
[TS]
00:25:08
◼
►
interesting going through all this when
[TS]
00:25:10
◼
►
they have sort of they can pick any
[TS]
00:25:11
◼
►
episode of any of their shows they want
[TS]
00:25:12
◼
►
to watch it anytime both of them pretty
[TS]
00:25:15
◼
►
quickly arrived upon the random play via
[TS]
00:25:17
◼
►
Daddy technique whether to say just just
[TS]
00:25:20
◼
►
pick any one dad and so I pick a random
[TS]
00:25:21
◼
►
episode and that's what they get to
[TS]
00:25:22
◼
►
watch or their choices now are random
[TS]
00:25:25
◼
►
play by dad the latest episode which
[TS]
00:25:28
◼
►
they do understand the concept of that
[TS]
00:25:29
◼
►
is the one at the top of the list it's
[TS]
00:25:30
◼
►
the newest one even if it happens to be
[TS]
00:25:32
◼
►
a repeat ah and then a specific
[TS]
00:25:35
◼
►
description of you know show me the one
[TS]
00:25:36
◼
►
with this or my daughter who's 3 her
[TS]
00:25:38
◼
►
description is I don't want the one with
[TS]
00:25:40
◼
►
the bugs and I don't want the one with
[TS]
00:25:42
◼
►
you know something else and then you
[TS]
00:25:44
◼
►
pick any from over there so I don't mind
[TS]
00:25:48
◼
►
as long as and and my kids only
[TS]
00:25:49
◼
►
basically watch PBS - so no ads every
[TS]
00:25:51
◼
►
show has some educational content with
[TS]
00:25:53
◼
►
the exception of Clone Wars which the
[TS]
00:25:54
◼
►
chatroom is talking about and yes my son
[TS]
00:25:56
◼
►
is addicted to that as well maybe we
[TS]
00:25:59
◼
►
will do a star wars episode eventually
[TS]
00:26:00
◼
►
but I don't want this to turn into the
[TS]
00:26:01
◼
►
talk show so I mean see alright show
[TS]
00:26:04
◼
►
topic today is actual show topic you
[TS]
00:26:08
◼
►
pick this one as usual yeah before you
[TS]
00:26:11
◼
►
forced me to pick them I would rather
[TS]
00:26:12
◼
►
you just pick them but you know I like
[TS]
00:26:14
◼
►
for you to pick them
[TS]
00:26:15
◼
►
because I'm the one who's writing the
[TS]
00:26:16
◼
►
topics and if I pick them I feel like
[TS]
00:26:19
◼
►
there has to be Chinese ball I write
[TS]
00:26:20
◼
►
down the topics and you pick them it
[TS]
00:26:21
◼
►
adds a little bit of dynamic you know I
[TS]
00:26:24
◼
►
don't know I just feel like if I picked
[TS]
00:26:26
◼
►
them I'll always pick the ones that are
[TS]
00:26:27
◼
►
most interesting to me and perhaps not
[TS]
00:26:30
◼
►
the most interesting to the listener so
[TS]
00:26:32
◼
►
you add a second you're so considerate
[TS]
00:26:33
◼
►
I try so today is a is iOS versus the
[TS]
00:26:38
◼
►
world yeah love that iOS versus the
[TS]
00:26:41
◼
►
world yeah and the short description of
[TS]
00:26:44
◼
►
this was what Apple need huh we just
[TS]
00:26:50
◼
►
lost John hold on because that was who's
[TS]
00:26:52
◼
►
just getting on did what happen
[TS]
00:26:54
◼
►
what happened I'm back yes I had a
[TS]
00:26:56
◼
►
little software malfunction okay so say
[TS]
00:26:58
◼
►
that again cuz I was I was in the edge
[TS]
00:27:00
◼
►
of my seat alright so iOS versus the
[TS]
00:27:02
◼
►
world is what Apple needs to do to
[TS]
00:27:04
◼
►
achieve iPod like success with iOS
[TS]
00:27:06
◼
►
devices and some would argue they
[TS]
00:27:10
◼
►
already have well I in my definition of
[TS]
00:27:13
◼
►
that phrase I'm saying iPod loss like
[TS]
00:27:14
◼
►
success is just complete dominance so if
[TS]
00:27:18
◼
►
you have a digital music player you know
[TS]
00:27:19
◼
►
anyone has a digital music player it's
[TS]
00:27:21
◼
►
an iPod yeah you it's pretty good guess
[TS]
00:27:23
◼
►
it's just like if you know anybody who
[TS]
00:27:25
◼
►
has a computer you know across the
[TS]
00:27:27
◼
►
entire world you can say it's a Windows
[TS]
00:27:29
◼
►
PC yeah I mean among our friends yes
[TS]
00:27:31
◼
►
it's always going to be Mac's or
[TS]
00:27:32
◼
►
whatever but doesn't matter like iPod is
[TS]
00:27:33
◼
►
like Windows it's not like just among
[TS]
00:27:35
◼
►
you know geek nerds who travel the exact
[TS]
00:27:38
◼
►
same tech circles as you do you can
[TS]
00:27:39
◼
►
guess what it's not anybody pick any
[TS]
00:27:41
◼
►
random human in the United States or in
[TS]
00:27:43
◼
►
the first world right and say he has a
[TS]
00:27:46
◼
►
digital use a music player guess what it
[TS]
00:27:47
◼
►
you guys I applaud your right 70% of the
[TS]
00:27:49
◼
►
time just like you guess windows whoo
[TS]
00:27:51
◼
►
right 90% of the time or whatever their
[TS]
00:27:52
◼
►
percentages are um and so I wrote about
[TS]
00:27:57
◼
►
when was that back in the summer thrust
[TS]
00:28:02
◼
►
of the article was something slightly
[TS]
00:28:03
◼
►
different but this was in the core of
[TS]
00:28:05
◼
►
the article the article was called can
[TS]
00:28:07
◼
►
you buy me now which was my play on
[TS]
00:28:10
◼
►
Verizon's can you hear me now thing and
[TS]
00:28:12
◼
►
it was about why Apple needs to go to
[TS]
00:28:14
◼
►
Verizon and why they have to do it soon
[TS]
00:28:17
◼
►
looks like they listened to you well
[TS]
00:28:20
◼
►
yeah then listen to me that's
[TS]
00:28:21
◼
►
interesting though speaking of Apple
[TS]
00:28:23
◼
►
going to Verizon I remember and whenever
[TS]
00:28:26
◼
►
they whenever they had WDC and they
[TS]
00:28:28
◼
►
announced the
[TS]
00:28:28
◼
►
yeah I guess it was the iPhone 4 in June
[TS]
00:28:31
◼
►
of this year was that the announcement
[TS]
00:28:33
◼
►
then was June June or July but anyway
[TS]
00:28:38
◼
►
during the summer when they had WotC and
[TS]
00:28:40
◼
►
everyone was talking about Verizon as
[TS]
00:28:41
◼
►
they always do before any type of thing
[TS]
00:28:43
◼
►
as soon as they came on stage and did
[TS]
00:28:44
◼
►
their presentation about the iPhone I
[TS]
00:28:46
◼
►
just knew January 2011 Verizon iPhone
[TS]
00:28:50
◼
►
like people were talking about it coming
[TS]
00:28:52
◼
►
earlier and they didn't know when the
[TS]
00:28:53
◼
►
contract was gonna be up and they didn't
[TS]
00:28:54
◼
►
know what was going to be but as soon as
[TS]
00:28:56
◼
►
they did that whole presentation on a
[TS]
00:28:57
◼
►
new iPhone didn't mention Verizon once
[TS]
00:28:59
◼
►
and had this brand-new hardware and this
[TS]
00:29:01
◼
►
new OS and everything it was clear to me
[TS]
00:29:03
◼
►
that this is not happening until at
[TS]
00:29:05
◼
►
least 2011 but they want to do it as
[TS]
00:29:06
◼
►
soon as they can so that's one of the
[TS]
00:29:08
◼
►
times I had the clearest premonition
[TS]
00:29:11
◼
►
about when based on nothing really just
[TS]
00:29:13
◼
►
gut instinct based on lend Verizon
[TS]
00:29:15
◼
►
iPhone for coming to turned out to be
[TS]
00:29:16
◼
►
right not that I could do anything with
[TS]
00:29:18
◼
►
that information but that was just a fun
[TS]
00:29:21
◼
►
coincidence but anyway this article was
[TS]
00:29:23
◼
►
about why they need to get on Verizon as
[TS]
00:29:25
◼
►
soon as possible and it was talking
[TS]
00:29:27
◼
►
about how everyone likes to apply the
[TS]
00:29:31
◼
►
Windows PC
[TS]
00:29:33
◼
►
template on top of any sort of tech
[TS]
00:29:36
◼
►
debate used to be they would they would
[TS]
00:29:38
◼
►
apply the the Betamax
[TS]
00:29:39
◼
►
yeah VHS beta maybe just things that
[TS]
00:29:42
◼
►
they applied the VHS Betamax analogy to
[TS]
00:29:44
◼
►
PCs but now now this day and age people
[TS]
00:29:47
◼
►
apply the PC analogy and the PC analogy
[TS]
00:29:49
◼
►
is you know Macintosh came along and it
[TS]
00:29:51
◼
►
was arguably a better product but window
[TS]
00:29:53
◼
►
license Micron's window is far and wide
[TS]
00:29:56
◼
►
and everybody got on board that train
[TS]
00:29:58
◼
►
and Apple was marginalized in Windows
[TS]
00:30:00
◼
►
came to dominate and so that's the
[TS]
00:30:02
◼
►
template that they try to shoehorn every
[TS]
00:30:03
◼
►
single thing into it and then right if
[TS]
00:30:05
◼
►
you were to update that analogy it fits
[TS]
00:30:08
◼
►
pretty well you can say you know today
[TS]
00:30:10
◼
►
Google is Microsoft they're their
[TS]
00:30:11
◼
►
licensing their operating system for and
[TS]
00:30:13
◼
►
what I do know Android is their Windows
[TS]
00:30:15
◼
►
right so you can operating system
[TS]
00:30:16
◼
►
everybody can have they sell it to hard
[TS]
00:30:18
◼
►
drive they sell it they give it away
[TS]
00:30:19
◼
►
actually to hardware makers and an iOS
[TS]
00:30:23
◼
►
is the Macintosh operating system and
[TS]
00:30:25
◼
►
Apple Apple is Apple in both analogies
[TS]
00:30:27
◼
►
which I think is interesting it's like
[TS]
00:30:28
◼
►
the one player that has not changed in
[TS]
00:30:30
◼
►
you know two generations of tech battles
[TS]
00:30:33
◼
►
and the whole article talks about why
[TS]
00:30:35
◼
►
these why do the difference why this
[TS]
00:30:37
◼
►
template doesn't really hold um
[TS]
00:30:41
◼
►
I'll go through a couple the reasons why
[TS]
00:30:42
◼
►
it doesn't hold briefly can read the
[TS]
00:30:43
◼
►
article if you want to but uh for
[TS]
00:30:46
◼
►
pricing Windows PCs were always weight
[TS]
00:30:48
◼
►
cheaper than Mac's still are arguably
[TS]
00:30:51
◼
►
didn't you know knock-knock the not
[TS]
00:30:54
◼
►
equivalent machines but you can get into
[TS]
00:30:57
◼
►
a PC for Less yeah and it wasn't at
[TS]
00:31:00
◼
►
various points it wasn't like five bucks
[TS]
00:31:01
◼
►
cheaper it was like hundreds of dollars
[TS]
00:31:03
◼
►
you know it's something that in the
[TS]
00:31:04
◼
►
mid-90s it was you know double the price
[TS]
00:31:06
◼
►
sometimes for similarly powerful
[TS]
00:31:08
◼
►
computers and that is simply not the
[TS]
00:31:11
◼
►
case with iOS based devices the iPhone
[TS]
00:31:15
◼
►
cost about the same amount as any other
[TS]
00:31:17
◼
►
phone does any other comparable
[TS]
00:31:19
◼
►
smartphone and the main thing is that
[TS]
00:31:21
◼
►
the the majority of the cost of phones
[TS]
00:31:23
◼
►
is not in the phone themselves just in
[TS]
00:31:24
◼
►
the contract Apple doesn't even control
[TS]
00:31:25
◼
►
that price right and that's more or less
[TS]
00:31:27
◼
►
the same for everybody so that's a big
[TS]
00:31:30
◼
►
difference um in this case Apple got the
[TS]
00:31:33
◼
►
critical mass pretty fast with the iOS
[TS]
00:31:35
◼
►
App Store and everything they never
[TS]
00:31:37
◼
►
liked the hip higher iOS market share no
[TS]
00:31:39
◼
►
matter how you measure it then they ever
[TS]
00:31:40
◼
►
did for the Mac even in the Mac's heyday
[TS]
00:31:42
◼
►
I think the Mac barely got above 10% and
[TS]
00:31:44
◼
►
like it's best time and you know apples
[TS]
00:31:46
◼
►
got 16% or something of a smartphone
[TS]
00:31:47
◼
►
market now and in terms of the App Store
[TS]
00:31:50
◼
►
in terms of number of applications and
[TS]
00:31:52
◼
►
downloads Apple never had this kind of
[TS]
00:31:53
◼
►
dominance with Mac apps there were never
[TS]
00:31:54
◼
►
you know 10 times 20 times as many Mac
[TS]
00:31:56
◼
►
apps as window apps right so Apple did
[TS]
00:31:59
◼
►
really get out ahead here um one of the
[TS]
00:32:02
◼
►
big things that people and talk about
[TS]
00:32:03
◼
►
much is that people not shop based on
[TS]
00:32:05
◼
►
spec anymore like they did in the PC
[TS]
00:32:07
◼
►
world there's always like how many
[TS]
00:32:08
◼
►
megahertz how many megabytes how big is
[TS]
00:32:10
◼
►
the hard drive how big is the screen how
[TS]
00:32:12
◼
►
many colors you know they would shop
[TS]
00:32:15
◼
►
based on those criteria and that's why a
[TS]
00:32:18
◼
►
book couldn't be in a price because
[TS]
00:32:19
◼
►
their machines were always more
[TS]
00:32:20
◼
►
expensive for a similar specs that said
[TS]
00:32:22
◼
►
a different software on them right
[TS]
00:32:24
◼
►
people didn't really factor in the
[TS]
00:32:25
◼
►
Socceroos a software is free right but
[TS]
00:32:27
◼
►
now people might shop like that like
[TS]
00:32:29
◼
►
people don't even know the specs of
[TS]
00:32:30
◼
►
their phones they just know it's an
[TS]
00:32:33
◼
►
extent that they care at all about the
[TS]
00:32:35
◼
►
hardware over the phone they just know
[TS]
00:32:37
◼
►
like does it feel fast yeah that's it
[TS]
00:32:39
◼
►
they don't they don't care an apple I
[TS]
00:32:41
◼
►
think it you can you have to credit them
[TS]
00:32:43
◼
►
for that because they've never really
[TS]
00:32:45
◼
►
talked about the specs of the iPhone
[TS]
00:32:48
◼
►
yeah they stop talking about the specs
[TS]
00:32:49
◼
►
of their Macs in fact they don't want to
[TS]
00:32:51
◼
►
talk about that they don't want it they
[TS]
00:32:52
◼
►
know that is not their strength and they
[TS]
00:32:54
◼
►
learned
[TS]
00:32:54
◼
►
PC you know Wars like we're never gonna
[TS]
00:32:56
◼
►
win on that so just to talk about it if
[TS]
00:32:58
◼
►
they could not tell you how fast the CPU
[TS]
00:33:01
◼
►
was in your max they would if they could
[TS]
00:33:02
◼
►
not tell you how much RAM they had they
[TS]
00:33:04
◼
►
would like they just don't want it they
[TS]
00:33:06
◼
►
don't want to talk about that at all and
[TS]
00:33:07
◼
►
and thing is people especially with
[TS]
00:33:08
◼
►
phones people barely even care if it
[TS]
00:33:10
◼
►
feels fast they mostly shop based on
[TS]
00:33:12
◼
►
like whim branding and advertising
[TS]
00:33:14
◼
►
campaign what their friends have
[TS]
00:33:16
◼
►
availability of applications but people
[TS]
00:33:18
◼
►
can put up with pretty crappy interfaces
[TS]
00:33:20
◼
►
and not complain so we all appreciate
[TS]
00:33:22
◼
►
the iOS is awesome because it's
[TS]
00:33:23
◼
►
responsive but I would be cautious about
[TS]
00:33:26
◼
►
assigning too much value to that in the
[TS]
00:33:29
◼
►
wider market because the bottom line is
[TS]
00:33:30
◼
►
most people do not care as much as we do
[TS]
00:33:32
◼
►
you can say they subconsciously notice
[TS]
00:33:35
◼
►
and it does make a difference but it's
[TS]
00:33:37
◼
►
not the deal breaker like it is with us
[TS]
00:33:39
◼
►
like we want to make many sacrifices to
[TS]
00:33:42
◼
►
keep a good interface whereas most other
[TS]
00:33:43
◼
►
people will trade that away much faster
[TS]
00:33:45
◼
►
than we will for some other advantage
[TS]
00:33:47
◼
►
that they consider significant and
[TS]
00:33:49
◼
►
fashion has a lot to do with phones
[TS]
00:33:50
◼
►
people buy phones because they're cute
[TS]
00:33:51
◼
►
because they have a cool case because
[TS]
00:33:53
◼
►
you know there's a Hello Kitty stamped
[TS]
00:33:55
◼
►
on the back whatever much more so than
[TS]
00:33:58
◼
►
laptops and certainly more so than PCs
[TS]
00:34:00
◼
►
even though Apple tried to do that with
[TS]
00:34:01
◼
►
the candy IMAX and everything and people
[TS]
00:34:03
◼
►
did buy them because they were cute
[TS]
00:34:05
◼
►
fashion is much more relevant to things
[TS]
00:34:08
◼
►
that you hold with things especially
[TS]
00:34:09
◼
►
something to use like as much as a phone
[TS]
00:34:12
◼
►
and the final thing that's different is
[TS]
00:34:15
◼
►
one hardware maker versus many hardware
[TS]
00:34:17
◼
►
makers like in the PC Mac Wars it was
[TS]
00:34:20
◼
►
Apple versus an entire industry was
[TS]
00:34:22
◼
►
Apple versus Compaq Dell and a million
[TS]
00:34:25
◼
►
Asian suppliers and Gateway and just
[TS]
00:34:27
◼
►
there was tons and tons of companies and
[TS]
00:34:29
◼
►
then on the Apple side that was just
[TS]
00:34:31
◼
►
Apple and one company can't compete with
[TS]
00:34:33
◼
►
that kind of diversity so there's people
[TS]
00:34:34
◼
►
making pcs for point-of-sale peeking
[TS]
00:34:36
◼
►
leaking and for use in factories right
[TS]
00:34:38
◼
►
waterproof ones that you can use
[TS]
00:34:40
◼
►
underwater you know one shape like a
[TS]
00:34:41
◼
►
shoe with televisions built-in ones with
[TS]
00:34:44
◼
►
stereos but it just it was and those
[TS]
00:34:46
◼
►
companies would go out of business
[TS]
00:34:47
◼
►
because no one wanted those things well
[TS]
00:34:48
◼
►
they would it was a million companies
[TS]
00:34:50
◼
►
all trying every possible thing and the
[TS]
00:34:52
◼
►
ones that stuck kind of survived and
[TS]
00:34:53
◼
►
there was eventually consolidation and
[TS]
00:34:54
◼
►
so on and so forth but during the growth
[TS]
00:34:56
◼
►
period it was tough for Apple to keep up
[TS]
00:34:58
◼
►
even when Apple had like 8 bazillion
[TS]
00:34:59
◼
►
performers that we couldn't keep track
[TS]
00:35:01
◼
►
of and they were trying to sound through
[TS]
00:35:02
◼
►
Sears and everything they still didn't
[TS]
00:35:04
◼
►
have as many products as pcs you could
[TS]
00:35:05
◼
►
get the exact PC that you wanted if you
[TS]
00:35:07
◼
►
couldn't get you could
[TS]
00:35:08
◼
►
that not that many people did that but
[TS]
00:35:09
◼
►
it was tough for Apple to compete in
[TS]
00:35:13
◼
►
that thing but in the sort of modern era
[TS]
00:35:16
◼
►
when they did the iPod they had a
[TS]
00:35:18
◼
►
similar scenario Apple II only company
[TS]
00:35:20
◼
►
that makes iPods Apple and millions of
[TS]
00:35:22
◼
►
companies made digital music players you
[TS]
00:35:25
◼
►
know hundreds of no-name
[TS]
00:35:27
◼
►
you know Asian knockoff things and what
[TS]
00:35:30
◼
►
was it like I don't remember all of them
[TS]
00:35:31
◼
►
Rio or the other ones Samsung made hope
[TS]
00:35:34
◼
►
you know made a whole bunch it really
[TS]
00:35:37
◼
►
was Apple versus tons of other companies
[TS]
00:35:38
◼
►
but Apple showed that if all those other
[TS]
00:35:41
◼
►
things are different all the other
[TS]
00:35:42
◼
►
things that I talked about are not the
[TS]
00:35:43
◼
►
same that just the one hardware hardware
[TS]
00:35:47
◼
►
maker versus many hardware maker issue
[TS]
00:35:48
◼
►
is not enough to you know automatically
[TS]
00:35:51
◼
►
make it so that you can't win so they
[TS]
00:35:53
◼
►
covered the needs of pretty much an
[TS]
00:35:55
◼
►
entire market with just one company's
[TS]
00:35:57
◼
►
product line with three or four products
[TS]
00:35:59
◼
►
start out with one iPod then there was
[TS]
00:36:01
◼
►
two then they replace them inning with
[TS]
00:36:03
◼
►
the Nano then they threw the shuffle in
[TS]
00:36:04
◼
►
the mix now you've got the touch but it
[TS]
00:36:06
◼
►
still may be one two three four models
[TS]
00:36:08
◼
►
and they covered you know 70 80 percent
[TS]
00:36:11
◼
►
of everybody's needs people are not
[TS]
00:36:13
◼
►
skipping an iPod because oh well I want
[TS]
00:36:16
◼
►
one that has this much memory but has
[TS]
00:36:17
◼
►
this form factor but as a screen but
[TS]
00:36:19
◼
►
that has you know that's what people
[TS]
00:36:21
◼
►
will do with PCs they would say well I
[TS]
00:36:22
◼
►
like the Mac but I really want one has
[TS]
00:36:24
◼
►
two slots but I want two hard drive bays
[TS]
00:36:26
◼
►
but I want the second hard drive bay to
[TS]
00:36:27
◼
►
be five and a quarter but I mean nobody
[TS]
00:36:29
◼
►
does that with you know you could do
[TS]
00:36:30
◼
►
that with iPod you could say well the
[TS]
00:36:32
◼
►
current nano stinks because doesn't have
[TS]
00:36:34
◼
►
physical buttons I don't like a
[TS]
00:36:34
◼
►
touchscreen so I have no other options
[TS]
00:36:36
◼
►
that's right you don't have your options
[TS]
00:36:37
◼
►
right don't shop like that it helps it
[TS]
00:36:40
◼
►
there you know an order of magnitude
[TS]
00:36:41
◼
►
less expensive than a PC but people
[TS]
00:36:43
◼
►
literally used to you know shop for mac
[TS]
00:36:45
◼
►
fund find that they couldn't get exactly
[TS]
00:36:47
◼
►
the specs that they wanted and decide
[TS]
00:36:49
◼
►
that well you know I have no other
[TS]
00:36:50
◼
►
options I'm going to go for a PC because
[TS]
00:36:52
◼
►
I have a whole world of choices but that
[TS]
00:36:53
◼
►
doesn't happen in the in the modern era
[TS]
00:36:55
◼
►
when specs don't count that much so you
[TS]
00:36:58
◼
►
know this almost harkens back to the the
[TS]
00:37:00
◼
►
major shift that Apple has made recently
[TS]
00:37:03
◼
►
and I say recently meaning last few
[TS]
00:37:05
◼
►
years you know calling it the year of
[TS]
00:37:08
◼
►
the laptop the year of the portable
[TS]
00:37:09
◼
►
computer they have so de-emphasized Mac
[TS]
00:37:13
◼
►
Pro's that it it it's not like they
[TS]
00:37:17
◼
►
don't admit to making them anymore but
[TS]
00:37:19
◼
►
these things are way in the background
[TS]
00:37:21
◼
►
you know these things are way way off to
[TS]
00:37:23
◼
►
the side as well you know the special
[TS]
00:37:25
◼
►
people who want those we we keep them
[TS]
00:37:28
◼
►
over here and when those people come to
[TS]
00:37:29
◼
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town we'd say of course you can have one
[TS]
00:37:31
◼
►
of these things but they're not out
[TS]
00:37:33
◼
►
there selling them and marketing them
[TS]
00:37:34
◼
►
it's all you know laptops and IMAX now I
[TS]
00:37:38
◼
►
mean that's really where the their
[TS]
00:37:41
◼
►
emphasis is and it should be I mean
[TS]
00:37:42
◼
►
those are the machines that are that are
[TS]
00:37:45
◼
►
the best and and that they have the best
[TS]
00:37:47
◼
►
luck and success with but it's like
[TS]
00:37:50
◼
►
that's example the customers leading
[TS]
00:37:52
◼
►
Apple tonight right I think you're right
[TS]
00:37:54
◼
►
at a certain point this is kind of like
[TS]
00:37:56
◼
►
audio at a certain point the technology
[TS]
00:37:59
◼
►
advances to where it's covering the
[TS]
00:38:02
◼
►
average person's need it
[TS]
00:38:05
◼
►
technologically speaking so in audios
[TS]
00:38:07
◼
►
cases like when does audio get good
[TS]
00:38:08
◼
►
enough that the average person thinks
[TS]
00:38:09
◼
►
it's good enough and unfortunately for
[TS]
00:38:11
◼
►
audiophiles
[TS]
00:38:12
◼
►
and people like me that happened without
[TS]
00:38:14
◼
►
you know 256 kilobits compressed mp3s
[TS]
00:38:18
◼
►
for most people it's good enough right
[TS]
00:38:20
◼
►
visual fidelity I think we're still
[TS]
00:38:22
◼
►
getting there especially since visual is
[TS]
00:38:24
◼
►
you know 2d and everything instead of
[TS]
00:38:26
◼
►
real 3d like we see in real life so a
[TS]
00:38:28
◼
►
visual fidelity may take much longer the
[TS]
00:38:30
◼
►
current video is not quite good enough
[TS]
00:38:32
◼
►
to most people say that well this is
[TS]
00:38:35
◼
►
this is close enough to the limits of
[TS]
00:38:37
◼
►
human visual perception that I think I'm
[TS]
00:38:39
◼
►
fine with that people still see you know
[TS]
00:38:40
◼
►
difference between HD and SD people see
[TS]
00:38:42
◼
►
the difference between 3d and regular
[TS]
00:38:44
◼
►
even though the 3d is crappy and
[TS]
00:38:45
◼
►
ridiculous they see a difference with
[TS]
00:38:47
◼
►
audio we've reached the point of
[TS]
00:38:48
◼
►
diminishing returns now the customer is
[TS]
00:38:50
◼
►
also recognized in the PC space that at
[TS]
00:38:53
◼
►
a certain point this little laptop does
[TS]
00:38:56
◼
►
everything I needed to do I don't need a
[TS]
00:38:57
◼
►
machine the size of a refrigerator that
[TS]
00:38:59
◼
►
makes horrible noise because thousands
[TS]
00:39:00
◼
►
of dollars and it took a while people to
[TS]
00:39:02
◼
►
get out of the habit of buying those
[TS]
00:39:03
◼
►
things eventually people said you know
[TS]
00:39:04
◼
►
once you get your first laptop you go
[TS]
00:39:07
◼
►
you know what for what I do with the
[TS]
00:39:08
◼
►
computer this laptop does everything I
[TS]
00:39:10
◼
►
need and look how much smaller it is I
[TS]
00:39:11
◼
►
can carry it around and you're just
[TS]
00:39:12
◼
►
never going to buy desktop again after
[TS]
00:39:13
◼
►
that so computing has reached the
[TS]
00:39:15
◼
►
computing networking has reached the
[TS]
00:39:17
◼
►
point where you can fill most people's
[TS]
00:39:18
◼
►
needs with a much smaller simpler
[TS]
00:39:20
◼
►
machine I think it'll keep going in that
[TS]
00:39:21
◼
►
direction maybe all of us have you know
[TS]
00:39:23
◼
►
SuperDuper iPads with larger screens
[TS]
00:39:25
◼
►
that are on whatever is derived from Mac
[TS]
00:39:27
◼
►
OS 10 in the future but once customers
[TS]
00:39:30
◼
►
started doing that and the sales started
[TS]
00:39:32
◼
►
shifting Apple loved it like great we
[TS]
00:39:33
◼
►
hate how selling these gigantic things
[TS]
00:39:35
◼
►
love to sell you more of these small
[TS]
00:39:37
◼
►
devices especially since we've become
[TS]
00:39:38
◼
►
such such an expert company building
[TS]
00:39:40
◼
►
these things with the iPod you know we
[TS]
00:39:41
◼
►
want everything to be completely spec
[TS]
00:39:44
◼
►
lists sealed units that you don't have
[TS]
00:39:46
◼
►
to worry about the internals of that we
[TS]
00:39:48
◼
►
make huge margins out and then we sell
[TS]
00:39:50
◼
►
you so that was a that transition is
[TS]
00:39:53
◼
►
ongoing and so getting back the article
[TS]
00:39:56
◼
►
I ended the article with the my call to
[TS]
00:39:58
◼
►
say you know Apple needs to get on more
[TS]
00:39:59
◼
►
carriers because the one thing the final
[TS]
00:40:02
◼
►
thing is different between the sort of
[TS]
00:40:05
◼
►
iOS Wars and the desktop PC Wars was the
[TS]
00:40:09
◼
►
distribution was not really an issue in
[TS]
00:40:11
◼
►
the old in the old days with Mac PC if
[TS]
00:40:14
◼
►
you wanted to Mac you could get it
[TS]
00:40:15
◼
►
almost anywhere there are resellers on
[TS]
00:40:17
◼
►
every corner you could buy Macs and
[TS]
00:40:18
◼
►
Sears you can buy them a copy USA you
[TS]
00:40:20
◼
►
know you could the distribution wasn't a
[TS]
00:40:23
◼
►
problem retail was everywhere retail
[TS]
00:40:24
◼
►
margins were similar everywhere everyone
[TS]
00:40:27
◼
►
could get to the customers but with you
[TS]
00:40:29
◼
►
know the cell phone market that is not
[TS]
00:40:32
◼
►
the case that the carrier's control
[TS]
00:40:34
◼
►
whether you can get the customers
[TS]
00:40:35
◼
►
because there's no coverage in an area
[TS]
00:40:37
◼
►
where somebody lives or bad coverage you
[TS]
00:40:38
◼
►
just can't sell to them period and you
[TS]
00:40:40
◼
►
have to get on some carrier you can't
[TS]
00:40:41
◼
►
sell a cell phone at all Apple does not
[TS]
00:40:43
◼
►
have a cell network so they are the
[TS]
00:40:45
◼
►
gatekeepers and it seemed like at the
[TS]
00:40:47
◼
►
time I wrote this that Android was
[TS]
00:40:49
◼
►
coming up big because people just wander
[TS]
00:40:52
◼
►
into what they considered the cell phone
[TS]
00:40:53
◼
►
store which is like a kiosk at a mall or
[TS]
00:40:55
◼
►
wherever they bought their last cell
[TS]
00:40:56
◼
►
phone or you know whatever they consider
[TS]
00:40:58
◼
►
the cell phone store and they turn in
[TS]
00:41:00
◼
►
their old phone and they say oh I want
[TS]
00:41:01
◼
►
to get a new one what have you got they
[TS]
00:41:02
◼
►
look around and they pick the best phone
[TS]
00:41:04
◼
►
to see in the store and if Apple stone
[TS]
00:41:05
◼
►
is not in that store they're not going
[TS]
00:41:07
◼
►
to get it if it's a Verizon store apple
[TS]
00:41:09
◼
►
stone is not in it and so they were
[TS]
00:41:10
◼
►
losing you know a huge number of
[TS]
00:41:12
◼
►
customers simply because they weren't
[TS]
00:41:13
◼
►
even in the game you know Apple does
[TS]
00:41:15
◼
►
have its retail store which is a big
[TS]
00:41:16
◼
►
advantage but people don't go to the
[TS]
00:41:17
◼
►
Apple store to buy phones not people who
[TS]
00:41:19
◼
►
are not specifically interested in the
[TS]
00:41:21
◼
►
iPhone you know once they're
[TS]
00:41:22
◼
►
specifically interested in the iPhone
[TS]
00:41:24
◼
►
you've got them already anyway but the
[TS]
00:41:25
◼
►
majority people are just going into the
[TS]
00:41:26
◼
►
phone store turning in their old phone
[TS]
00:41:28
◼
►
for the best new phone and Apple needed
[TS]
00:41:30
◼
►
to get in front of those people and you
[TS]
00:41:33
◼
►
know now they are on Verizon and we saw
[TS]
00:41:35
◼
►
the sales numbers uh yeah I mean they
[TS]
00:41:37
◼
►
are the sales these sales statistics not
[TS]
00:41:39
◼
►
numbers they just said how big they are
[TS]
00:41:42
◼
►
they didn't say quantity right and they
[TS]
00:41:44
◼
►
said that that it was the biggest I've
[TS]
00:41:46
◼
►
the biggest iPhone so the biggest phones
[TS]
00:41:49
◼
►
mail that they sold faster than inactive
[TS]
00:41:53
◼
►
ever they ever offered in and so I don't
[TS]
00:41:56
◼
►
know what those numbers are they sold
[TS]
00:41:57
◼
►
down in I think twelve hours yeah I was
[TS]
00:42:01
◼
►
twelve I was like - it's like two hours
[TS]
00:42:03
◼
►
or something from the time for my 3:00
[TS]
00:42:05
◼
►
a.m. to 5:00 it really yeah something I
[TS]
00:42:08
◼
►
read this morning said from 3:00 a.m. to
[TS]
00:42:09
◼
►
5:00 a.m. in that two hour window
[TS]
00:42:10
◼
►
Verizon sold out all of its pre-orders
[TS]
00:42:13
◼
►
for the iPhone that's even that's even
[TS]
00:42:15
◼
►
faster than I had heard wow this and the
[TS]
00:42:17
◼
►
thing is that's interesting from like a
[TS]
00:42:19
◼
►
sensational point of view but I that's
[TS]
00:42:21
◼
►
not what I was talking about I'm talking
[TS]
00:42:22
◼
►
about after the people who don't even
[TS]
00:42:25
◼
►
know that you know these people are
[TS]
00:42:26
◼
►
going to buy their iPhones and get them
[TS]
00:42:28
◼
►
early just like you did but a few weeks
[TS]
00:42:30
◼
►
from now when the ads that are running
[TS]
00:42:32
◼
►
in television finally start to penetrate
[TS]
00:42:33
◼
►
the mainstream and someone goes to
[TS]
00:42:34
◼
►
replace their phone you go hey you know
[TS]
00:42:36
◼
►
I'm going to get a new cell phone they
[TS]
00:42:37
◼
►
go to the cell phone store and they go
[TS]
00:42:38
◼
►
there and it's a horizon store and they
[TS]
00:42:40
◼
►
see that there's an iPhone they're like
[TS]
00:42:41
◼
►
I can get an iPhone on my verizon
[TS]
00:42:43
◼
►
contract and the salesperson says you
[TS]
00:42:45
◼
►
certainly can that's that's where the
[TS]
00:42:47
◼
►
big market is it's not these guys who
[TS]
00:42:49
◼
►
were dying to get a Verizon iPhone but
[TS]
00:42:51
◼
►
those are all you know Mac iPhone nerds
[TS]
00:42:53
◼
►
already you've already got people maybe
[TS]
00:42:55
◼
►
they were like you and suffering under
[TS]
00:42:56
◼
►
the yoke of bet ATT coverage and can now
[TS]
00:42:59
◼
►
finally go back to the herd but that's
[TS]
00:43:00
◼
►
not the mass market the mass market of
[TS]
00:43:01
◼
►
the people we're just going to wander
[TS]
00:43:03
◼
►
the store see an iPhone and it's going
[TS]
00:43:04
◼
►
to win because it's better let me let me
[TS]
00:43:06
◼
►
read this to you it says it says that at
[TS]
00:43:12
◼
►
8:10 p.m.
[TS]
00:43:13
◼
►
Verizon ceased online orders the iPhone
[TS]
00:43:15
◼
►
to existing customers and the most
[TS]
00:43:17
◼
►
successful first day sales of the
[TS]
00:43:19
◼
►
history in the history of the company
[TS]
00:43:21
◼
►
this is an exciting day sedan me DS
[TS]
00:43:24
◼
►
president chief executive officer for
[TS]
00:43:26
◼
►
them in in just our first two hours we'd
[TS]
00:43:29
◼
►
already sold more phones than any
[TS]
00:43:31
◼
►
first-day launch in our history and when
[TS]
00:43:33
◼
►
you consider these initial orders were
[TS]
00:43:34
◼
►
placed between the hours of 3:00 a.m.
[TS]
00:43:36
◼
►
and 5:00 a.m. it is an incredible
[TS]
00:43:38
◼
►
success story it is gratifying to know
[TS]
00:43:40
◼
►
that our customers responded so
[TS]
00:43:42
◼
►
enthusiastically to this exclusive offer
[TS]
00:43:45
◼
►
designed to reward them for their
[TS]
00:43:47
◼
►
loyalty that's pent-up demand and that's
[TS]
00:43:50
◼
►
not an explosive bubble and also had
[TS]
00:43:52
◼
►
probably has to do with a lot about
[TS]
00:43:53
◼
►
supply constraint because iPhone 4 has
[TS]
00:43:54
◼
►
been supply constrained for seven months
[TS]
00:43:56
◼
►
and there's no reason to believe that
[TS]
00:43:57
◼
►
the CDMA iPhone 4 is not also going to
[TS]
00:43:59
◼
►
be supply constraint for a long time
[TS]
00:44:01
◼
►
yeah I'm sure Apple wishes
[TS]
00:44:02
◼
►
wasn't the case but it is they can't
[TS]
00:44:04
◼
►
make them fast enough so let me ask you
[TS]
00:44:06
◼
►
this if if I wanted to buy an iPhone 4
[TS]
00:44:09
◼
►
on 18 t today do you think I would be
[TS]
00:44:13
◼
►
successful I could go to an Apple store
[TS]
00:44:15
◼
►
and buy one let's just say I have no
[TS]
00:44:17
◼
►
cell phone no plans nothing to worry
[TS]
00:44:19
◼
►
about I just want to go buy an iPhone
[TS]
00:44:20
◼
►
today you have to think that by now
[TS]
00:44:23
◼
►
finally the gsm iphone 4 should not be
[TS]
00:44:26
◼
►
supply constraint simply because of the
[TS]
00:44:28
◼
►
rise an iphone thing is siphoning off
[TS]
00:44:29
◼
►
customers and they've had 7 months to
[TS]
00:44:32
◼
►
ramp up on on the gsm iphone 4 you never
[TS]
00:44:35
◼
►
know I guess because like remember the
[TS]
00:44:37
◼
►
we that we was supply constrained for
[TS]
00:44:38
◼
►
like a year and a half or something
[TS]
00:44:39
◼
►
ridiculous like that and it's not like
[TS]
00:44:41
◼
►
these companies don't know how to
[TS]
00:44:42
◼
►
manufacture lots of items it's just at a
[TS]
00:44:43
◼
►
certain point you you know it's like one
[TS]
00:44:45
◼
►
diode or one thing that you can't get in
[TS]
00:44:47
◼
►
enough quantity and that holds up your
[TS]
00:44:48
◼
►
entire line when you're when you're
[TS]
00:44:50
◼
►
selling things in these kind of
[TS]
00:44:51
◼
►
quantities it's very difficult to make
[TS]
00:44:53
◼
►
them as fast as people want to buy them
[TS]
00:44:54
◼
►
ah but I have to think that the 18 T
[TS]
00:44:57
◼
►
iPhone is not going next time there's an
[TS]
00:44:59
◼
►
earnings conference call and they talk
[TS]
00:45:01
◼
►
to them and they say is is the iPhone 4
[TS]
00:45:03
◼
►
still comply supply constrained on 18 T
[TS]
00:45:06
◼
►
they have to say no I can't imagine it's
[TS]
00:45:08
◼
►
going to be if it is supply constrain
[TS]
00:45:09
◼
►
then Apple's stock is going to go up
[TS]
00:45:10
◼
►
another 50 bucks because that means
[TS]
00:45:12
◼
►
people are just buying iPhones like
[TS]
00:45:14
◼
►
crazy yeah I think the CMA iPhone is
[TS]
00:45:17
◼
►
going to be supply constrained for a
[TS]
00:45:18
◼
►
long time just because it's a brand new
[TS]
00:45:19
◼
►
product even though it looks the same on
[TS]
00:45:20
◼
►
the outside they're all new internals
[TS]
00:45:22
◼
►
and there's this big bubble of demand
[TS]
00:45:25
◼
►
and this is national advertising
[TS]
00:45:26
◼
►
campaign so expect that to be tough to
[TS]
00:45:28
◼
►
get for a while and and it's going to
[TS]
00:45:30
◼
►
limit their sales it's going to limit
[TS]
00:45:32
◼
►
how many applicants sell up which is
[TS]
00:45:34
◼
►
kind of a shame from a learning
[TS]
00:45:35
◼
►
standpoint but they'll get over it
[TS]
00:45:37
◼
►
eventually if anything you know the
[TS]
00:45:39
◼
►
light at the end of tunnel is that the
[TS]
00:45:41
◼
►
iPhone 4 could be supply constrained for
[TS]
00:45:43
◼
►
its entire life and then the iPhone 5
[TS]
00:45:44
◼
►
comes out this summer and finally you
[TS]
00:45:46
◼
►
can get some iPhone 4s like they're 99
[TS]
00:45:48
◼
►
bucks at Walmart right exactly
[TS]
00:45:50
◼
►
it'll be a little bit perverse so that
[TS]
00:45:54
◼
►
was that was the article about you know
[TS]
00:45:57
◼
►
what I think I always needs to do to
[TS]
00:45:59
◼
►
achieve iPod like success and the the
[TS]
00:46:02
◼
►
two main thrusts are get on more
[TS]
00:46:04
◼
►
carriers alright check box you know that
[TS]
00:46:06
◼
►
would basically get on more calories
[TS]
00:46:07
◼
►
meant to get on Verizon in the u.s.
[TS]
00:46:09
◼
►
because almost every other country had
[TS]
00:46:10
◼
►
multiple carries already
[TS]
00:46:11
◼
►
u.s. is a huge market it was clear that
[TS]
00:46:13
◼
►
they were number
[TS]
00:46:14
◼
►
and I was trying to explain why it's so
[TS]
00:46:17
◼
►
important for them to get on Verizon
[TS]
00:46:19
◼
►
ASAP before Android comes and eats the
[TS]
00:46:21
◼
►
rest of their lunch and the other thing
[TS]
00:46:23
◼
►
was to try to express that I think it is
[TS]
00:46:26
◼
►
possible for a single vendor with a
[TS]
00:46:28
◼
►
limited product line to come to dominate
[TS]
00:46:30
◼
►
a market because Apple did it with the
[TS]
00:46:33
◼
►
iPod and there's no reason they can't do
[TS]
00:46:34
◼
►
the same thing with the iPhone now that
[TS]
00:46:35
◼
►
would mean they would have to diversify
[TS]
00:46:36
◼
►
their hardware just like they did with
[TS]
00:46:38
◼
►
the iPod I don't remember how long they
[TS]
00:46:40
◼
►
had just one iPod but it was a pretty
[TS]
00:46:41
◼
►
long period of time I mean for a long
[TS]
00:46:42
◼
►
time I was Mac only and then there was
[TS]
00:46:44
◼
►
on Windows and then finally they
[TS]
00:46:45
◼
►
introduced the mini and that kind of led
[TS]
00:46:47
◼
►
to an explosion even though the mini was
[TS]
00:46:49
◼
►
like less value for your money because
[TS]
00:46:50
◼
►
occasion five times less storage for 50
[TS]
00:46:53
◼
►
bucks less money or whatever it was and
[TS]
00:46:54
◼
►
people you know didn't think that was
[TS]
00:46:56
◼
►
great but I think Apple will eventually
[TS]
00:46:59
◼
►
need to diversify its hardware line they
[TS]
00:47:01
◼
►
kind of have two iPhones now because
[TS]
00:47:02
◼
►
they would take the previous model and
[TS]
00:47:04
◼
►
make that the $99 thing so you kind of
[TS]
00:47:06
◼
►
have the good iPhone that everyone wants
[TS]
00:47:08
◼
►
and then the cruddy one then the kardi
[TS]
00:47:10
◼
►
one is just last year's model mm-hmm I
[TS]
00:47:12
◼
►
think they would benefit from
[TS]
00:47:14
◼
►
diversifying even further going to to
[TS]
00:47:16
◼
►
current model phones and then like you
[TS]
00:47:19
◼
►
know one previous model phone or
[TS]
00:47:21
◼
►
something and I'm not sure now is the
[TS]
00:47:23
◼
►
time to do that I'm certainly not saying
[TS]
00:47:24
◼
►
that they have to make a phone with a
[TS]
00:47:25
◼
►
physical keyboard or go crazy like that
[TS]
00:47:27
◼
►
but they could do like an iPhone nano or
[TS]
00:47:29
◼
►
a decon sented iPhone that you know
[TS]
00:47:32
◼
►
strip out some of the more expensive
[TS]
00:47:33
◼
►
stuff instead of having a really nice 5
[TS]
00:47:36
◼
►
megapixel camera put a credit camera in
[TS]
00:47:37
◼
►
there and make the phone free with the
[TS]
00:47:38
◼
►
contract or something you know I don't
[TS]
00:47:41
◼
►
know if they're at that point yet but
[TS]
00:47:42
◼
►
downward price pressure I think will
[TS]
00:47:44
◼
►
eventually maybe a year or two from now
[TS]
00:47:47
◼
►
so you wait a minute or two you two
[TS]
00:47:48
◼
►
years from now you'll walk into the
[TS]
00:47:51
◼
►
character of your choice and it will be
[TS]
00:47:54
◼
►
a penny phone I think they have to feel
[TS]
00:47:57
◼
►
the model like that eventually we're in
[TS]
00:47:59
◼
►
the early stages of smartphones
[TS]
00:48:00
◼
►
kind of like the early stages of the PC
[TS]
00:48:02
◼
►
market where everything was fancy do you
[TS]
00:48:04
◼
►
remember in the early years of the Mac
[TS]
00:48:06
◼
►
every Mac that Apple introduced was
[TS]
00:48:08
◼
►
better than all of its previous Macs in
[TS]
00:48:10
◼
►
every possible way
[TS]
00:48:11
◼
►
yeah like the Mac plus there's nothing
[TS]
00:48:13
◼
►
worse about the Mac plus in the Mac 128
[TS]
00:48:15
◼
►
right or the Mac 512 nothing worse about
[TS]
00:48:17
◼
►
that than the 128 and the plus the SC
[TS]
00:48:19
◼
►
was better than the plus the 128 that
[TS]
00:48:21
◼
►
you know the 512 in every possible way
[TS]
00:48:23
◼
►
that it could be better no spec was not
[TS]
00:48:26
◼
►
right that was what it was like in the
[TS]
00:48:27
◼
►
beginning of a market you just do one
[TS]
00:48:29
◼
►
upmanship and better and better
[TS]
00:48:30
◼
►
eventually Apple had to diversify the
[TS]
00:48:32
◼
►
line editor introduced a computer that
[TS]
00:48:34
◼
►
was not as good as one of its
[TS]
00:48:37
◼
►
pre-existing computers hmm and you know
[TS]
00:48:39
◼
►
once you start down that path nail it's
[TS]
00:48:40
◼
►
just the status quo obviously the
[TS]
00:48:42
◼
►
MacBook is not as good as a previous
[TS]
00:48:43
◼
►
model Mac what produce do it all the
[TS]
00:48:45
◼
►
smartphones will reach that point as
[TS]
00:48:47
◼
►
well smartphones will get to the point
[TS]
00:48:48
◼
►
where it will run apps if I run iOS and
[TS]
00:48:51
◼
►
everything but it's not as good as the
[TS]
00:48:53
◼
►
previous top-of-the-line iPhone 7 or
[TS]
00:48:55
◼
►
whatever and I think that's key to ever
[TS]
00:48:58
◼
►
achieving market dominance like the iPod
[TS]
00:49:01
◼
►
did because the iPod yeah but show the
[TS]
00:49:03
◼
►
one vendor could do it we need more than
[TS]
00:49:05
◼
►
one model if Apple had stuck with the
[TS]
00:49:06
◼
►
iPod Classic they wouldn't have been
[TS]
00:49:08
◼
►
able to dominate the market the way they
[TS]
00:49:10
◼
►
do you need you need to feel some sort
[TS]
00:49:12
◼
►
of diversified team so that people feel
[TS]
00:49:14
◼
►
like oh I've got enough choice just like
[TS]
00:49:17
◼
►
car companies if you're a Ford family
[TS]
00:49:18
◼
►
for life Ford makes enough cars that
[TS]
00:49:20
◼
►
they can sell you a truck a minivan a
[TS]
00:49:21
◼
►
sedan a sporty car they've got a
[TS]
00:49:24
◼
►
diversified line they don't have every
[TS]
00:49:25
◼
►
car in the entire world but they have
[TS]
00:49:27
◼
►
something to fill every kind of need I
[TS]
00:49:29
◼
►
think Apple will need to do that
[TS]
00:49:31
◼
►
eventually um but the underlying thing
[TS]
00:49:34
◼
►
the reason this topic came up or the
[TS]
00:49:37
◼
►
connection to this topic to your recent
[TS]
00:49:39
◼
►
shows is that on a talk show this week
[TS]
00:49:41
◼
►
you're talking about a Gruber's
[TS]
00:49:42
◼
►
obsession with market share yeah it's
[TS]
00:49:44
◼
►
all he's always writing I'm sick I'm
[TS]
00:49:46
◼
►
sick and tired of it really hey
[TS]
00:49:47
◼
►
I mentioned Gruber and market share at
[TS]
00:49:49
◼
►
the end of this article as well
[TS]
00:49:51
◼
►
I mentioned that he's one of the phrases
[TS]
00:49:54
◼
►
that I quoted remember I think was you
[TS]
00:49:55
◼
►
can't cash checks with market share and
[TS]
00:49:57
◼
►
the big difference in profit share and
[TS]
00:49:58
◼
►
market share and you mentioned on the
[TS]
00:50:00
◼
►
show that the thing where he's talked
[TS]
00:50:01
◼
►
about Marcus is just a convenient way to
[TS]
00:50:03
◼
►
keep score yeah
[TS]
00:50:05
◼
►
who's winning listen yeah and it's sort
[TS]
00:50:08
◼
►
of an underlying that the the line item
[TS]
00:50:13
◼
►
I have for this is psychoanalyzing group
[TS]
00:50:14
◼
►
is obsession with market share and it
[TS]
00:50:17
◼
►
really applies to me as well be cycle
[TS]
00:50:18
◼
►
analyzing my own obsession with market
[TS]
00:50:20
◼
►
share and just everybody's of my
[TS]
00:50:22
◼
►
generation and I'm going to try to wrap
[TS]
00:50:25
◼
►
this up quickly because we're almost
[TS]
00:50:25
◼
►
over time but I'm going to do an
[TS]
00:50:28
◼
►
immediate godwyn of this you know
[TS]
00:50:30
◼
►
Godwin's law what is Godwin's law
[TS]
00:50:32
◼
►
Cobbins law is named after some guy
[TS]
00:50:34
◼
►
whose last name I believe is Godwin is
[TS]
00:50:36
◼
►
that in any debate online if it goes on
[TS]
00:50:38
◼
►
long enough someone will make some
[TS]
00:50:39
◼
►
not zero Hitler and Hitler reference
[TS]
00:50:41
◼
►
it's just it's inevitable and that the I
[TS]
00:50:44
◼
►
think is a corollary to order is that
[TS]
00:50:46
◼
►
once someone does that the discussion is
[TS]
00:50:47
◼
►
over a rational discourse can no longer
[TS]
00:50:49
◼
►
happen from that point it actually reads
[TS]
00:50:51
◼
►
as an online discussion grows longer the
[TS]
00:50:52
◼
►
probability of a comparison involving
[TS]
00:50:54
◼
►
Nazis or Hitler approaches one yeah
[TS]
00:50:58
◼
►
that's the Wikipedia page right and I
[TS]
00:51:00
◼
►
think then the main thing and most
[TS]
00:51:02
◼
►
people think of when they say that now
[TS]
00:51:03
◼
►
is that that means it's the end of the
[TS]
00:51:04
◼
►
discussion that means you immediate loss
[TS]
00:51:06
◼
►
to discuss anything rational again is
[TS]
00:51:08
◼
►
hyperbole yeah whoever the other way
[TS]
00:51:10
◼
►
I've heard it said is whoever mentions
[TS]
00:51:12
◼
►
the Nazis loses exactly so I'm going I'm
[TS]
00:51:16
◼
►
going to immediately God God when the
[TS]
00:51:18
◼
►
psychoanalyzing thing but then I'm gonna
[TS]
00:51:19
◼
►
try to pull it back so yes I am here hey
[TS]
00:51:21
◼
►
so I'm going to say that your group is
[TS]
00:51:24
◼
►
obsession with market chair and mine
[TS]
00:51:25
◼
►
obsession with market share is very
[TS]
00:51:27
◼
►
similar to something from my childhood
[TS]
00:51:30
◼
►
done after you talked oh is Marco
[TS]
00:51:32
◼
►
Marco's wife or they grew up in Long
[TS]
00:51:33
◼
►
Island I don't know if you know but I
[TS]
00:51:34
◼
►
grew up in Long Island and you said you
[TS]
00:51:36
◼
►
hadn't heard a Long Island accent in a
[TS]
00:51:37
◼
►
long time you're kind of hearing one for
[TS]
00:51:39
◼
►
me I don't know it's not very strong I
[TS]
00:51:41
◼
►
mean I knew I I just knew years as sort
[TS]
00:51:43
◼
►
of northeastern and I didn't I don't
[TS]
00:51:45
◼
►
think I'll of me I don't have the Jersey
[TS]
00:51:48
◼
►
Shore Long Island accent most of the
[TS]
00:51:50
◼
►
people in Jersey Shore actually from
[TS]
00:51:51
◼
►
Long Island but there's a little
[TS]
00:51:53
◼
►
accident there but any but growing up an
[TS]
00:51:54
◼
►
eye on a lot or perhaps most of my
[TS]
00:51:57
◼
►
friends were Jewish and I would go over
[TS]
00:52:00
◼
►
their houses and you know talk to their
[TS]
00:52:01
◼
►
parents and grandparents and many of
[TS]
00:52:03
◼
►
them I don't know how many maybe all of
[TS]
00:52:05
◼
►
them any of them had grandparents living
[TS]
00:52:07
◼
►
with them the big thing with the
[TS]
00:52:08
◼
►
grandparents of my Jewish friends was
[TS]
00:52:10
◼
►
that they wouldn't ride in German cars
[TS]
00:52:11
◼
►
Oh my grandparents were so upset at me
[TS]
00:52:14
◼
►
that we had a Volkswagen oh my god they
[TS]
00:52:16
◼
►
literally almost spit on the ground
[TS]
00:52:18
◼
►
right it's just it's just an old
[TS]
00:52:20
◼
►
something it's not like I won't buy and
[TS]
00:52:23
◼
►
with them since I was on Long Island and
[TS]
00:52:24
◼
►
my friends were Jewish a lot of them are
[TS]
00:52:26
◼
►
well-to-do it was about like Mercedes
[TS]
00:52:27
◼
►
right you know not only when they not
[TS]
00:52:30
◼
►
buy her Mercedes or they wouldn't ride
[TS]
00:52:32
◼
►
in one so if you had one you came to
[TS]
00:52:34
◼
►
pick them up the grandparents were like
[TS]
00:52:35
◼
►
I will not ride in that car right and
[TS]
00:52:37
◼
►
these people you know their families had
[TS]
00:52:40
◼
►
money they were they living the American
[TS]
00:52:41
◼
►
dream they were successful right they
[TS]
00:52:43
◼
►
could buy nice expensive cars but and
[TS]
00:52:46
◼
►
most of the nice expensive cars for
[TS]
00:52:48
◼
►
German but they would refuse to buy them
[TS]
00:52:49
◼
►
my grandparents exactly the same way
[TS]
00:52:51
◼
►
and the thing is
[TS]
00:52:53
◼
►
actually speaking you said look the
[TS]
00:52:55
◼
►
people who designed and built these cars
[TS]
00:52:57
◼
►
probably weren't born until r2 is over
[TS]
00:53:01
◼
►
these they're these are not the Nazi
[TS]
00:53:03
◼
►
Germany's are your our friend now the
[TS]
00:53:04
◼
►
Nazis are gone these cars are not made
[TS]
00:53:06
◼
►
by Nazis you are not benefiting Nazis or
[TS]
00:53:08
◼
►
anything like that by buying let alone
[TS]
00:53:10
◼
►
riding in these cars this doesn't seem
[TS]
00:53:12
◼
►
like a rational choice and they're
[TS]
00:53:13
◼
►
they're essentially sacrificing their
[TS]
00:53:16
◼
►
comfort and you know their ability to
[TS]
00:53:18
◼
►
have a nice car based on this you know
[TS]
00:53:21
◼
►
attitude they have towards this ah my
[TS]
00:53:24
◼
►
something I tweeted about recently is
[TS]
00:53:25
◼
►
why I was in front of my mind this is
[TS]
00:53:27
◼
►
very similar to my decision not to have
[TS]
00:53:29
◼
►
an Xbox Xbox is a game console made by
[TS]
00:53:32
◼
►
Microsoft right well think it's better
[TS]
00:53:34
◼
►
than the PlayStation in many possible
[TS]
00:53:35
◼
►
ways and I agree that it actually is far
[TS]
00:53:39
◼
►
for the same reason my Jewish friends
[TS]
00:53:40
◼
►
grandparents wouldn't write a German car
[TS]
00:53:41
◼
►
I won't have an Xbox on my ass right and
[TS]
00:53:44
◼
►
this all right the the analogy here is
[TS]
00:53:46
◼
►
isn't that well this feeling that I have
[TS]
00:53:50
◼
►
is the same way about Microsoft as if
[TS]
00:53:52
◼
►
you only other people have but Nazis now
[TS]
00:53:53
◼
►
the analogy is not that the Microsoft
[TS]
00:53:55
◼
►
the Microsoft are Nazis like I owned by
[TS]
00:53:56
◼
►
Microsoft products therefore Microsoft
[TS]
00:53:58
◼
►
equals Nazis now the analogy is about
[TS]
00:54:00
◼
►
the irrationality of the choice is not
[TS]
00:54:02
◼
►
the context it's this idea of making a
[TS]
00:54:06
◼
►
choice that's is hurting yourself for
[TS]
00:54:08
◼
►
irrational reasons based on past events
[TS]
00:54:10
◼
►
that's the analogy the analogy is not
[TS]
00:54:12
◼
►
Microsoft or Nazis all right so I hope
[TS]
00:54:16
◼
►
you can understand this this psychology
[TS]
00:54:19
◼
►
without trying to bring the Nazis into
[TS]
00:54:21
◼
►
it it's it's about a rational choice
[TS]
00:54:23
◼
►
about biting off your nose to spite your
[TS]
00:54:25
◼
►
face based on some past experience now
[TS]
00:54:27
◼
►
it gets get you now a past experience
[TS]
00:54:29
◼
►
that was horrific Microsoft was not
[TS]
00:54:31
◼
►
horrific Nazis are a lot falls apart
[TS]
00:54:33
◼
►
I've just got one the entire
[TS]
00:54:34
◼
►
conversation but this is what popped
[TS]
00:54:36
◼
►
into my mind I think I hope we can all
[TS]
00:54:38
◼
►
keep level heads about this and move on
[TS]
00:54:40
◼
►
from from the analogy but the reason it
[TS]
00:54:43
◼
►
comes up in this context is because that
[TS]
00:54:46
◼
►
struggle of Mac versus PC Apple versus
[TS]
00:54:49
◼
►
Microsoft
[TS]
00:54:50
◼
►
sort of defines the the adolescence and
[TS]
00:54:54
◼
►
Technik technological blossoming of
[TS]
00:54:56
◼
►
people of my generation your generation
[TS]
00:54:58
◼
►
and Gruber's generation who were into
[TS]
00:54:59
◼
►
this type of stuff right it underlies
[TS]
00:55:02
◼
►
everything and the way we think about
[TS]
00:55:04
◼
►
everything and even if we're smart
[TS]
00:55:05
◼
►
enough like in that whole article
[TS]
00:55:07
◼
►
say it's not the same deal with iOS as
[TS]
00:55:09
◼
►
it was with Mac PC even if we're smart
[TS]
00:55:12
◼
►
enough to realize that the Germans who
[TS]
00:55:13
◼
►
built this car were not even born when
[TS]
00:55:14
◼
►
we're work until world war two was over
[TS]
00:55:16
◼
►
right it still it still informs our
[TS]
00:55:19
◼
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thinking at a subconscious emotional
[TS]
00:55:21
◼
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level so the reason Gruber and I and
[TS]
00:55:26
◼
►
other people are so obsessed with market
[TS]
00:55:28
◼
►
share is because we live through a
[TS]
00:55:31
◼
►
situation where the better party didn't
[TS]
00:55:35
◼
►
win we felt like and we were
[TS]
00:55:36
◼
►
disappointed by it and we want to make
[TS]
00:55:38
◼
►
sure that that doesn't happen again
[TS]
00:55:40
◼
►
this one one more layer back before I
[TS]
00:55:43
◼
►
bounce all the way back up
[TS]
00:55:44
◼
►
the reason Windows versus Mac was so
[TS]
00:55:46
◼
►
upsetting is because geeks in general
[TS]
00:55:48
◼
►
like meritocracy in order and they want
[TS]
00:55:50
◼
►
the best thing to win and in general
[TS]
00:55:54
◼
►
tech geeks or especially Mac eeks didn't
[TS]
00:55:57
◼
►
think Windows was the better product
[TS]
00:55:58
◼
►
they think it won for reasons that
[TS]
00:56:01
◼
►
didn't seem fair for the same way that
[TS]
00:56:03
◼
►
the jocks were more popular for reasons
[TS]
00:56:04
◼
►
it didn't seem fair to the Nerds right
[TS]
00:56:06
◼
►
there they weren't interesting or smart
[TS]
00:56:08
◼
►
or whatever they just play one game
[TS]
00:56:09
◼
►
better sports or whatever they were
[TS]
00:56:11
◼
►
taller better-looking it didn't seem
[TS]
00:56:12
◼
►
fair wasn't a meritocracy according to
[TS]
00:56:14
◼
►
the merits that we decided well windows
[TS]
00:56:15
◼
►
went ran won the contest for reasons we
[TS]
00:56:18
◼
►
didn't think we're fair and our team the
[TS]
00:56:20
◼
►
Mac lost and we thought it was just
[TS]
00:56:21
◼
►
terrible and the same thing for like
[TS]
00:56:23
◼
►
Amiga users or B users or Atari people
[TS]
00:56:25
◼
►
or whatever but there's many more Mac
[TS]
00:56:27
◼
►
users who worse or for similar reasons
[TS]
00:56:28
◼
►
it's a really good analogy with the
[TS]
00:56:30
◼
►
persecution the Nerds feel like in high
[TS]
00:56:32
◼
►
school right the same persecution that
[TS]
00:56:35
◼
►
those same nerds felt about their
[TS]
00:56:36
◼
►
favorite computer at the hands of
[TS]
00:56:37
◼
►
Windows Windows didn't seem like it
[TS]
00:56:39
◼
►
should win and we hate something that
[TS]
00:56:40
◼
►
shouldn't win winning because doesn't
[TS]
00:56:42
◼
►
deserve to and so that situation of
[TS]
00:56:47
◼
►
saying you know something that we didn't
[TS]
00:56:48
◼
►
think should win did it was so upsetting
[TS]
00:56:50
◼
►
to us that now now we want any battle
[TS]
00:56:54
◼
►
between the product that we enjoy and a
[TS]
00:56:55
◼
►
product that we don't think is worthy we
[TS]
00:56:57
◼
►
want to win it decisively just like
[TS]
00:56:59
◼
►
Windows wanted decisively in our youth
[TS]
00:57:01
◼
►
and the way you do that is is to do a
[TS]
00:57:03
◼
►
Windows dip which is to get massive
[TS]
00:57:05
◼
►
market share to say Windows had 90%
[TS]
00:57:07
◼
►
market share all my friends had Windows
[TS]
00:57:09
◼
►
computers ran Windows period for a first
[TS]
00:57:11
◼
►
approximation therefore for the product
[TS]
00:57:14
◼
►
I like to win now that's what we must do
[TS]
00:57:15
◼
►
we must get market share and group is
[TS]
00:57:17
◼
►
obsession with it is his rational mind
[TS]
00:57:18
◼
►
in my obsession is a rational mind
[TS]
00:57:20
◼
►
trying to reconcile
[TS]
00:57:21
◼
►
with the fact that perhaps that's not
[TS]
00:57:22
◼
►
the case now hmm maybe you don't need
[TS]
00:57:24
◼
►
market share but and you know group post
[TS]
00:57:26
◼
►
about all the time well Apple doesn't
[TS]
00:57:28
◼
►
have market share but look how much
[TS]
00:57:28
◼
►
profit share they have them they're just
[TS]
00:57:29
◼
►
they're selling more phones and they're
[TS]
00:57:31
◼
►
making all the money in the industry
[TS]
00:57:32
◼
►
just trying to you know it's like this
[TS]
00:57:33
◼
►
is trying to convince himself that that
[TS]
00:57:36
◼
►
we are winning but that nagging thing at
[TS]
00:57:38
◼
►
the back of his mind that makes him keep
[TS]
00:57:39
◼
►
coming back to that well is that but
[TS]
00:57:41
◼
►
we're not winning in the way that
[TS]
00:57:42
◼
►
Windows won and so maybe there's still
[TS]
00:57:44
◼
►
the possibility that we keep defeated in
[TS]
00:57:46
◼
►
that way and we must prevent that that
[TS]
00:57:47
◼
►
thing that little you know Marlon man
[TS]
00:57:50
◼
►
lizard brain thing in the back your mind
[TS]
00:57:51
◼
►
is just nagging and making us go back to
[TS]
00:57:53
◼
►
the well of market share and keep
[TS]
00:57:55
◼
►
looking at it keep trying to convince
[TS]
00:57:56
◼
►
ourselves it's okay we don't have market
[TS]
00:57:58
◼
►
share we're not in danger we could still
[TS]
00:57:59
◼
►
win yeah but how can you really win
[TS]
00:58:01
◼
►
unless every single person you know has
[TS]
00:58:03
◼
►
an iPhone unless it's like Windows how
[TS]
00:58:05
◼
►
could how can that be winning remember
[TS]
00:58:07
◼
►
what it was like with Windows don't we
[TS]
00:58:08
◼
►
deserve that victory and that's also
[TS]
00:58:10
◼
►
what makes Mac fans keep going that you
[TS]
00:58:13
◼
►
know let's count the iPad as a PC does
[TS]
00:58:15
◼
►
that help us there's still time to win
[TS]
00:58:16
◼
►
race or like we have this great thing if
[TS]
00:58:18
◼
►
we can throw the iPad into the PC comm
[TS]
00:58:20
◼
►
maybe we can go back and read it you
[TS]
00:58:22
◼
►
know right up Wars yeah still have a
[TS]
00:58:25
◼
►
shot at that one it's not over you know
[TS]
00:58:27
◼
►
and sometimes they want to come out the
[TS]
00:58:29
◼
►
iPad as a PC and a phone because they
[TS]
00:58:31
◼
►
can use it to help the phone war right
[TS]
00:58:33
◼
►
yeah that's our Saint Canada's both you
[TS]
00:58:35
◼
►
know right because then you could then
[TS]
00:58:36
◼
►
go back and win the Wars of the past and
[TS]
00:58:38
◼
►
win this new war I think it's just
[TS]
00:58:40
◼
►
fascinating this I think most people who
[TS]
00:58:43
◼
►
think about this a lot understand that
[TS]
00:58:45
◼
►
this is the case but it's a fascinating
[TS]
00:58:46
◼
►
struggle between our rational minds and
[TS]
00:58:48
◼
►
and you know just all sorts of issues
[TS]
00:58:52
◼
►
tied up in our own adolescents and and
[TS]
00:58:55
◼
►
the desktop PC Wars and deciding what
[TS]
00:58:59
◼
►
victory looks like and I think it's
[TS]
00:59:02
◼
►
unique to people of our age and of our
[TS]
00:59:05
◼
►
particular inclination most other people
[TS]
00:59:08
◼
►
don't care one way or the other that's
[TS]
00:59:11
◼
►
my attempt to explain the the obsession
[TS]
00:59:14
◼
►
with market share and I really don't
[TS]
00:59:15
◼
►
think it's going to go away and even
[TS]
00:59:16
◼
►
within myself I have trouble really
[TS]
00:59:20
◼
►
truly in my heart of hearts believing
[TS]
00:59:21
◼
►
that iOS can win unless it gets you know
[TS]
00:59:24
◼
►
dominant iPod like market share so what
[TS]
00:59:29
◼
►
if it doesn't win ah if it doesn't win I
[TS]
00:59:35
◼
►
don't think it's that bad that's the
[TS]
00:59:36
◼
►
other thing that you'll see in a lot of
[TS]
00:59:38
◼
►
these stories is the like the bargaining
[TS]
00:59:40
◼
►
stage well you know even if we only get
[TS]
00:59:42
◼
►
ten or 50% look at the Mac the Mac said
[TS]
00:59:44
◼
►
10 and 15% and we're pretty much happy
[TS]
00:59:45
◼
►
with our Mac's right I mean really they
[TS]
00:59:48
◼
►
don't seem to be going away again right
[TS]
00:59:50
◼
►
but we're still sore that we lost but
[TS]
00:59:51
◼
►
it's the you know I'll take the
[TS]
00:59:54
◼
►
consolation price consolation prizes the
[TS]
00:59:55
◼
►
company doesn't go out of business we
[TS]
00:59:56
◼
►
still get to use the computers we want
[TS]
00:59:58
◼
►
it's certainly better than if Apple had
[TS]
00:59:59
◼
►
gone under
[TS]
00:59:59
◼
►
gone under
[TS]
01:00:00
◼
►
I've been bought by Sun or some other
[TS]
01:00:01
◼
►
horrific you know real failure brain so
[TS]
01:00:04
◼
►
we'll take that as a consolation prize
[TS]
01:00:06
◼
►
and that's what you tell yourself when
[TS]
01:00:08
◼
►
you think it's just not going to happen
[TS]
01:00:09
◼
►
when you think just apples apples not
[TS]
01:00:10
◼
►
going to be able to do it
[TS]
01:00:11
◼
►
I think the iPod is really an optimistic
[TS]
01:00:13
◼
►
story the iPod proves that they can do
[TS]
01:00:16
◼
►
it that it's possible that all the
[TS]
01:00:18
◼
►
pieces are there Apple can get it done
[TS]
01:00:20
◼
►
if they make the right moves at the
[TS]
01:00:22
◼
►
right times and a lot of moves they are
[TS]
01:00:24
◼
►
making are good the same sign of things
[TS]
01:00:25
◼
►
to do with the iPod the the reason
[TS]
01:00:26
◼
►
pricing is not an issue anymore is
[TS]
01:00:28
◼
►
because apples been really strong with
[TS]
01:00:29
◼
►
that with the big buys on flash ahead of
[TS]
01:00:31
◼
►
time and everything and cornering the
[TS]
01:00:33
◼
►
market on certain components yeah
[TS]
01:00:35
◼
►
Apple's margins are huge and they're
[TS]
01:00:37
◼
►
parts prices are low and with the phones
[TS]
01:00:39
◼
►
that runs on the same CPU more or less
[TS]
01:00:41
◼
►
they're buying the same parts from
[TS]
01:00:44
◼
►
Qualcomm and Broadcom and all these
[TS]
01:00:45
◼
►
other companies that make the the radios
[TS]
01:00:47
◼
►
in them we're all buying the same flash
[TS]
01:00:48
◼
►
screens from different vendors it's a
[TS]
01:00:50
◼
►
level playing field Nygaard regard and
[TS]
01:00:52
◼
►
Apple is doing really well in that area
[TS]
01:00:54
◼
►
so in a lot of ways they are kind of
[TS]
01:00:57
◼
►
following the same iPod path but it's
[TS]
01:00:59
◼
►
but you know the iPod never had an
[TS]
01:01:01
◼
►
Android like competitor who is competent
[TS]
01:01:03
◼
►
and extremely well-funded and you know
[TS]
01:01:07
◼
►
giving Apple more of a runt Rhodes money
[TS]
01:01:09
◼
►
than any iPod competitor ever did it
[TS]
01:01:12
◼
►
would have been interesting if at Google
[TS]
01:01:13
◼
►
was powerful at the time of the iPods
[TS]
01:01:15
◼
►
you know ascent to the throne see if
[TS]
01:01:18
◼
►
they would have fielded a competitive
[TS]
01:01:19
◼
►
and b3 player that synced with Google
[TS]
01:01:21
◼
►
wirelessly or something that that would
[TS]
01:01:24
◼
►
have been interesting to see if the Ames
[TS]
01:01:25
◼
►
Ames hi Google this point is kind of
[TS]
01:01:27
◼
►
doing the Microsoft thing where they
[TS]
01:01:29
◼
►
they'll just want to be in every
[TS]
01:01:30
◼
►
business you're like the way to ask them
[TS]
01:01:31
◼
►
to make money let's get them maybe they
[TS]
01:01:33
◼
►
would have thought there was no way from
[TS]
01:01:33
◼
►
the big money with portable and B 3
[TS]
01:01:35
◼
►
players but we'll see it's only 8
[TS]
01:01:38
◼
►
minutes over not bad well I mean we
[TS]
01:01:40
◼
►
started 5 minutes late yeah so really
[TS]
01:01:44
◼
►
we're only two two and a half minutes
[TS]
01:01:45
◼
►
over yeah this this whole issue I feel
[TS]
01:01:49
◼
►
like is underlying every discussion on
[TS]
01:01:52
◼
►
you know on the talk show and really
[TS]
01:01:54
◼
►
analyze it everything about market share
[TS]
01:01:57
◼
►
because it's it's all it's all a bunch
[TS]
01:01:59
◼
►
of guys who are all in our 30s who lived
[TS]
01:02:01
◼
►
through the Mac PC Wars and I think all
[TS]
01:02:04
◼
►
of us are struggling with this this
[TS]
01:02:06
◼
►
feeling inside when we discuss this
[TS]
01:02:10
◼
►
it's the subtext of everything that gets
[TS]
01:02:11
◼
►
written about it
[TS]
01:02:15
◼
►
that's it though that's it for this show
[TS]
01:02:17
◼
►
I feel like it is I mean you get we
[TS]
01:02:19
◼
►
gotta end at some point a little bit of
[TS]
01:02:22
◼
►
ranting but that's not bad no this is
[TS]
01:02:23
◼
►
great this is I feel like we're finally
[TS]
01:02:25
◼
►
starting to get comfortable you know
[TS]
01:02:27
◼
►
what I mean like you're finally starting
[TS]
01:02:28
◼
►
to loosen up a little I was uptight on
[TS]
01:02:30
◼
►
the first three rows you think well
[TS]
01:02:32
◼
►
especially the first one but you're you
[TS]
01:02:34
◼
►
know you this is the kind of rant I
[TS]
01:02:36
◼
►
expected from you all along now I'm
[TS]
01:02:38
◼
►
going to be disappointed if it doesn't
[TS]
01:02:40
◼
►
happen if we go through a show where you
[TS]
01:02:43
◼
►
don't have a little bit of a tirade on
[TS]
01:02:45
◼
►
I'm going to think it was not a
[TS]
01:02:46
◼
►
successful show and there goes there
[TS]
01:02:50
◼
►
goes your mic right there right on cue
[TS]
01:02:52
◼
►
right on schedule
[TS]
01:02:53
◼
►
we'll end it say goodbye are you replug
[TS]
01:02:59
◼
►
in how's that better yeah and it's fixed
[TS]
01:03:04
◼
►
all done
[TS]
01:03:05
◼
►
good bye everybody thanks so thanks for
[TS]
01:03:10
◼
►
tuning in appreciate you being here
[TS]
01:03:13
◼
►
great topic it's a problem with the
[TS]
01:03:15
◼
►
Ranchos is now you've got a lot more
[TS]
01:03:16
◼
►
editing star for you or your editor no
[TS]
01:03:17
◼
►
no we're don't edit any I keep it all
[TS]
01:03:19
◼
►
but did you did you order your t-shirts
[TS]
01:03:22
◼
►
you don't have to I'll send you one did
[TS]
01:03:24
◼
►
not order t-shirts oh I will eventually
[TS]
01:03:25
◼
►
if you had not sent me t-shirts and if
[TS]
01:03:28
◼
►
you never get around this anyway no
[TS]
01:03:29
◼
►
teachers I will probably eventually buy
[TS]
01:03:31
◼
►
one because I have a clothes only
[TS]
01:03:32
◼
►
there's only a week left
[TS]
01:03:34
◼
►
we're only keeping it open for a couple
[TS]
01:03:36
◼
►
weeks so if you guys are listening you
[TS]
01:03:37
◼
►
haven't gotten your t-shirts yet you go
[TS]
01:03:39
◼
►
to store it on 5x5 TV and you get a
[TS]
01:03:41
◼
►
t-shirt for another week before we shut
[TS]
01:03:43
◼
►
it down today you have to do a limited
[TS]
01:03:46
◼
►
run thing yeah so yeah so check that out
[TS]
01:03:50
◼
►
thanks everybody for tuning in we also
[TS]
01:03:52
◼
►
want to say thanks to our sponsors at
[TS]
01:03:54
◼
►
doe Viacom campaign monitor comm and
[TS]
01:03:57
◼
►
also thanks to MailChimp comm who's been
[TS]
01:04:00
◼
►
paying for our bandwidth this month so
[TS]
01:04:04
◼
►
that you guys can download all in these
[TS]
01:04:05
◼
►
episodes so thank you to to all of them
[TS]
01:04:07
◼
►
John have a good one we'll be back next
[TS]
01:04:10
◼
►
week and Friday at noon right that's
[TS]
01:04:13
◼
►
right maybe we'll talk about backups all
[TS]
01:04:15
◼
►
right all right very good take it take
[TS]
01:04:17
◼
►
care have a good one
[TS]