Under the Radar

Under the Radar 56: Surviving the Winter


00:00:00   welcome to under the radar a show about

00:00:02   independent iOS app development I'm

00:00:04   Marco Arment and I'm David Smith under

00:00:06   the radar is never longer than 30

00:00:08   minutes so let's get started so today we

00:00:10   wanted to talk a little bit about how

00:00:12   the the goldrush days for the App Store

00:00:16   and the the Apple ecosystem seem to be

00:00:19   probably over and so kind of you know

00:00:22   what's different now how we change the

00:00:25   way we do things as a result of that and

00:00:27   maybe you know how we can look towards

00:00:30   the future what's likely to happen in

00:00:32   the future what do you think sure yeah

00:00:34   because it's it's a funny thing with

00:00:36   this to call it an apps like a gold rush

00:00:38   we're obviously you know like that's

00:00:39   hearkening back to the days when you

00:00:42   know people would someone find gold

00:00:43   somewhere in a valley you know out west

00:00:46   or wherever and everyone would rush in

00:00:48   and try and grab all the gold as much as

00:00:50   they could before it all went away and

00:00:53   there's some parallels to that in the

00:00:54   sense of like the nature of a gold rush

00:00:56   is that it's this very sort of temporary

00:00:57   thing but it's interesting to me with

00:01:00   the app stores where and well first it's

00:01:03   amusing that I remember Apple actually

00:01:04   even referred to the app stores as gold

00:01:07   rushes I have this great in this like

00:01:10   flashbulb memory of Scott Forstall in

00:01:13   the intro video for the iPad with his

00:01:17   like the way he sort of can get really

00:01:18   intense with big eyes saying and we're

00:01:20   expecting a whole new gold rush it's

00:01:23   also a little bit funny that it's also

00:01:25   in San Francisco yeah that's true

00:01:27   they've been there you know their sports

00:01:29   team is the 49ers and it's all very

00:01:33   relevant but it's even they're like

00:01:35   Apple embraced it that this was this

00:01:36   whole big thing it was part of the

00:01:37   marketing of like trying to get people

00:01:39   onto the platform and developing forward

00:01:41   is that there's this feeling of like

00:01:42   there's all this opportunity and it's

00:01:44   all the fake this capability that is

00:01:46   time limited so you need to get in there

00:01:48   and you need to you know grab as much as

00:01:50   you can and in many ways that was true

00:01:52   they weren't lying about that I don't

00:01:53   think but it's weird now because they've

00:01:56   launched three app stores subsequently

00:01:59   or I guess for if you can count the Mac

00:02:02   App Store but I'm not sure that you

00:02:04   should but for the purposes of this

00:02:06   discussion like they've launched three

00:02:07   that are relevant to iOS where they

00:02:09   launched the

00:02:11   t the TV OS App Store they launched the

00:02:14   watch app store and they launched the

00:02:16   iMessage app store and I can't think of

00:02:18   the only example out of any of those

00:02:20   that I can think of where someone had

00:02:22   like this big public like you know the

00:02:26   store you seen wired or you see on the

00:02:27   verge or somewhere where it's like you

00:02:29   know developer makes two hundred

00:02:30   thousand dollars in two weeks with five

00:02:32   minutes worth of work kind of stories

00:02:34   and I other than the app phonies which

00:02:37   was an iMessage app that lets you trick

00:02:39   your friends into thinking that they had

00:02:41   said things they didn't which eventually

00:02:43   got pulled from the App Store shocked

00:02:44   reasonably well yes but did reasonably

00:02:48   well like that's the only one out of

00:02:49   those three stores which is not to say

00:02:51   that there's no money to be made on

00:02:52   these stores but it's a very different

00:02:54   mentality I think it's also just a very

00:02:56   different type of thing that succeeds in

00:03:00   these different stores so in the case of

00:03:02   iMessage I think the the promise of

00:03:04   iMessage apps that aren't sticker packs

00:03:06   just apps in iMessage has mostly been

00:03:10   shown to not really be a thing after all

00:03:12   maybe that'll change over time but you

00:03:15   know what when Apple was announcing all

00:03:17   this stuff this past summer and

00:03:19   launching it in the fall you know

00:03:21   whenever Apple launches something new

00:03:22   some kind of new ability for an app or a

00:03:25   new type of app store or a whole new

00:03:26   device that will have an app store we've

00:03:29   said in past episodes we've talked about

00:03:31   how like you know it's there's there's

00:03:33   usually a good chance of success if you

00:03:36   are there on day one

00:03:37   doing something doing the new thing that

00:03:39   wasn't possible before and I think

00:03:41   that's still true but I think what we're

00:03:43   seeing is that you know even Apple

00:03:45   doesn't know before they launch these

00:03:47   things which ones will be successful and

00:03:49   which ones have launched and even Apple

00:03:52   is just guessing about that they're you

00:03:54   know they they made this entire app

00:03:57   store ecosystem for the watch and it

00:04:00   turns out that the Apple watch really is

00:04:03   not a hot place for launching new apps

00:04:06   you know it you can and some apps have

00:04:08   done okay on the watch but it's not

00:04:10   really like this like gold rush the way

00:04:12   the way it was back for the iPhone and

00:04:14   briefly for the iPad and you know the TV

00:04:17   I think we can look at the TV and we can

00:04:19   say pretty similarly you know the Apple

00:04:23   TV we we all

00:04:25   thought when it launched we know that

00:04:27   now now that we can make apps for the TV

00:04:29   easily for the first time now there will

00:04:32   be all new kinds of apps new types of

00:04:35   things that we can't even think of and I

00:04:37   think it turns out that we haven't

00:04:39   thought of them yet and you know a year

00:04:41   a year and a half or whatever it's been

00:04:43   in we still haven't thought of them and

00:04:46   it's unfortunate that what succeeds on

00:04:49   the Apple TV is basically stuff that

00:04:51   makes sense would succeed on Apple TV

00:04:52   which is like video apps for different

00:04:55   providers and occasionally a game but

00:04:58   even then the gaming market for it I

00:05:00   think has largely not materialized and

00:05:02   we can talk about why but it doesn't

00:05:04   really matter that you know that the

00:05:05   facts are basically the Apple TV app

00:05:07   market is really not a place where

00:05:10   Indies have much action to be had and

00:05:13   most people with Apple TVs are not

00:05:15   really browsing the App Store regularly

00:05:17   and finding new stuff and downloading it

00:05:18   and paying for and everything else

00:05:19   that's not really happening any no same

00:05:22   thing I think with the watch and I think

00:05:23   the the iMessage store is just the most

00:05:28   recent example of this you know it when

00:05:30   when the app stores were launching back

00:05:32   in 2008 and and then later in the iPad

00:05:35   launch in 2010 when that was really

00:05:38   beginning when things were really hot

00:05:39   back then this whole market was like

00:05:41   totally untapped it was like a the fresh

00:05:44   you know green Osia whatever whatever

00:05:46   business people call it and they're

00:05:48   gonna get whatever time some oceans are

00:05:50   green so so the fresh fresh blue field

00:05:53   and it there was it was easier back then

00:05:57   to succeed because there was less there

00:05:59   there was less history there and people

00:06:02   were actually really excited to get

00:06:04   these new kinds of devices and then

00:06:06   browse around and throw money around and

00:06:08   see what what can they now do they

00:06:10   couldn't do before or what could this

00:06:12   new device that they just got for the

00:06:13   first time do and then what we've seen

00:06:16   since then basically is that every new

00:06:19   every additional platform or store or

00:06:22   capability that has launched since then

00:06:24   and that has that has provided us

00:06:26   opportunities that didn't exist before

00:06:27   since then every one of those is

00:06:30   seemingly smaller than than the last one

00:06:33   or has less potential for Indies than

00:06:35   the last one and it's not because Apple

00:06:38   is some you know

00:06:39   corporate sellout or anything it's not

00:06:40   that at all it's that just the nature of

00:06:43   these stores and devices and abilities

00:06:46   like the low-hanging fruit was picked

00:06:48   long ago and now we're going into these

00:06:50   more and more specialized areas more and

00:06:52   more specialized markets and adding

00:06:55   these kind of like niche abilities and

00:06:57   niche demands to the various product

00:06:59   lines into the various app stores and

00:07:01   SDKs so I think this was inevitable this

00:07:04   like III think the this this kind of

00:07:06   cooling down of the gold rush like I

00:07:08   think this happens to most gold rushes

00:07:09   that's usually why they're called a gold

00:07:11   rush and not like a gold you know

00:07:13   forever age of stability and no that's

00:07:16   like when things cool down and the

00:07:18   markets mature like this just happens so

00:07:21   I think this was largely inevitable I

00:07:24   think there's not a lot a polluter

00:07:27   really change it and instead it's our

00:07:31   job as the developers as people trying

00:07:33   to make a business in this ecosystem

00:07:35   it's our job not to just yell at Apple

00:07:39   to change things that they can't really

00:07:40   change but instead to adapt what we do

00:07:43   to basically be more compatible with

00:07:46   this new market and to be more likely to

00:07:50   succeed and that's partly been what this

00:07:51   entire series has been about this whole

00:07:54   podcast that we do for the last year

00:07:56   it's basically been all about this it's

00:07:58   basically been how do you succeed in

00:08:00   today's market not in the gold rush of

00:08:03   2008 but how do you succeed today in the

00:08:07   realities of today's market and that

00:08:09   often requires changes in the way we do

00:08:12   things changes in the would in our

00:08:13   expectations and and just kind of a more

00:08:17   realistic and pragmatic view of how we

00:08:20   operated what we should make yeah

00:08:22   because I think in a lot of ways these

00:08:23   things come down to the balance of

00:08:27   supply and demand

00:08:29   that's like anything and even vaguely

00:08:31   related to business always have an comes

00:08:33   down to supply and demand and I think

00:08:36   especially of how the reason that there

00:08:38   was such a so so much value to be taken

00:08:42   from the early days of the early of I

00:08:45   phone and I've had app stores is that

00:08:47   there was a strong demand for these

00:08:49   things and the supply

00:08:52   was almost non-existent and in a weird

00:08:55   way it makes me think of how like when

00:08:57   you take if you divide something by a

00:09:00   very small number you into put this just

00:09:02   massive number but as that as you divide

00:09:05   by a slightly a bigger and bigger number

00:09:07   of very quickly you start to shrink as a

00:09:09   result like the result which I don't

00:09:11   know why that comes to mind for me but

00:09:12   it's that kind of that impact that

00:09:13   because the number of apps in the App

00:09:16   Store was you know a few thousand a tens

00:09:19   of thousands the all of the demand was

00:09:22   concentrated on those and so the ability

00:09:25   for a developer to you know to stand out

00:09:27   from that and or even if you didn't even

00:09:29   stand out the ability to just exist and

00:09:31   make money was substantial and in

00:09:36   whereas now any of these things are

00:09:38   coming into an environment where the

00:09:40   demand is arguable whether it's gotten

00:09:43   down or not I'm not sure because I think

00:09:45   you know sending let's say something

00:09:46   like the watch my guess is Apple has

00:09:49   sold more Apple watches in the first

00:09:53   year of its existence then they had sold

00:09:57   iPhones in the you know in the year

00:10:00   after the App Store launched like the

00:10:03   install base for the Apple watch is

00:10:04   bigger almost certainly than it was for

00:10:06   the iPhone back in those days and yet

00:10:09   you know there's just I think oh the

00:10:11   reality is the supply of things is just

00:10:13   so much bigger proportionate to what it

00:10:16   was that the that kind of easy it's like

00:10:20   what what any good draw draws people to

00:10:23   a gold rush is the promise of easy money

00:10:26   that you don't have to work that hard to

00:10:30   you know just strike it rich it's sort

00:10:33   of this in this kind that you know going

00:10:35   all the way back to the mining right

00:10:36   it's like it's not that you need to

00:10:37   invest the hundreds of thousands of

00:10:39   dollars in to build you know building

00:10:42   this huge big mining operation and going

00:10:44   deep into mountains to pull out gold

00:10:45   it's like no nothing like you imagine a

00:10:47   gold rush it's like there's just gold

00:10:48   lying on the ground and you feel just

00:10:49   like walking around picking it out and I

00:10:52   feel like in this there's that same

00:10:53   difference where it's the like there is

00:10:57   still money to be made but it is

00:10:59   increasingly difficult and in a weird

00:11:02   way I feel like that's both good and bad

00:11:04   I like the feeling that in order to

00:11:07   succeed now you have to work in in a

00:11:12   more concrete way and it's harder to do

00:11:14   and there's fewer people who were able

00:11:15   to do it and so if you're somebody who

00:11:18   has the skills and the patience and the

00:11:21   sort of like I don't even know like

00:11:22   intuition to be able to navigate that

00:11:24   like you can still do it well and it's

00:11:26   harder to do so there's less competition

00:11:28   for it but on the flip side like I also

00:11:31   do remember quite lovingly the days back

00:11:33   in the FS are in the early app store

00:11:35   we're doing anything would you know it

00:11:37   gets you a reasonable amount of income

00:11:39   and you could very easily get attention

00:11:42   in the press or and all these types of

00:11:43   places me was never easy easy it wasn't

00:11:45   like literally just walks you know like

00:11:46   reaching down and picking up gold off

00:11:47   the ground but it was so much easier

00:11:50   than it was then and that was like nice

00:11:52   but it was also probably was just really

00:11:54   unsustainable because that attracts so

00:11:57   much attention and in the many ways to

00:12:00   probably creates a lot of bad habits and

00:12:04   perspectives as a developer like if I

00:12:07   had structured my business assuming that

00:12:09   that was those days we're always going

00:12:11   to continue I was going to be in for a

00:12:14   you know a saw surprise when it turns

00:12:16   out that's not the case and you know

00:12:18   you're I've had periods of the AppStore

00:12:20   since then where it's like my income

00:12:22   year-to-year has you know dropped by a

00:12:24   half or two thirds or things like that's

00:12:27   a pretty substantial robust change to

00:12:29   have to adapt to and especially if you

00:12:32   had gone the other like I've always

00:12:34   generally speaking been the sort of the

00:12:37   one-man low overhead type of developer

00:12:39   but imagine like it's got to be really

00:12:41   crazy if you were a developer who had

00:12:44   sort of staffed up as a result and had a

00:12:45   big team and it kind of been assuming

00:12:48   that those those salad days would going

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00:13:38   our show so I thought maybe we'd talk

00:13:41   about you know in the first you know the

00:13:44   first half we basically covered things

00:13:46   are worse here's me why basically things

00:13:49   are worse at harder now now I think it's

00:13:52   worth talking about strategies and

00:13:54   specifics about how we exist in a

00:13:58   sustainable healthy way in this new

00:14:00   environment realistically and and you

00:14:03   know you men should make before the

00:14:04   break that you've always kind of kept

00:14:06   things low overhead and just you for the

00:14:08   most part and and III think it's worth

00:14:12   going more into this you know you in

00:14:14   particular I think are you know

00:14:16   basically like the I think you are the

00:14:18   most pragmatic and prolific developer I

00:14:21   know because you try lots of things and

00:14:26   I think this is this is a a key survival

00:14:29   skill in this market in a tough market

00:14:32   where there's lots of competition and

00:14:33   lots of changes and it's generally kind

00:14:35   of cooling this to me is this is the key

00:14:39   is basically to try a lot of different

00:14:42   things and also critically I think the

00:14:45   way you do things is you tend to try

00:14:48   things without putting a massive amount

00:14:51   of budget and time into it before you

00:14:54   know whether it will it will succeed you

00:14:55   know it's I don't know if you subscribe

00:14:57   you like the minimal Viable Product

00:14:58   thing or not but I think what you do is

00:15:01   close to that in the sense that not that

00:15:04   you put out crap because you don't but

00:15:06   that you put out one point o's that you

00:15:09   didn't spend three years making be and

00:15:12   like you know 300 thousand dollars worth

00:15:14   every sort is like you know you're not

00:15:15   pouring all that into a 1.0 because you

00:15:17   don't know whether it'll succeed yet and

00:15:19   by doing it that way you're able to

00:15:21   launch a whole bunch of different stuff

00:15:23   you know over over a few years you

00:15:25   launch tons of apps and then you can see

00:15:28   what succeeds and then build on that

00:15:30   yeah

00:15:32   I think the thing that's probably my

00:15:33   best is to point out to is the reason I

00:15:37   take the approach I take is because of

00:15:40   what my goals are and for years now like

00:15:45   what I got into this business you know I

00:15:47   used to be a consultant and like there

00:15:50   are lots of problems with with new

00:15:52   consulting work but in general like the

00:15:54   nice thing about consulting is it's very

00:15:56   straightforward you do a certain amount

00:15:58   of hours of work you get a certain

00:16:00   amount of money for that work and the

00:16:01   uncertainty comes in can you have an ex

00:16:03   client but if you're you know if you're

00:16:05   a consultant of a reasonable quality

00:16:07   like finding work is usually had it

00:16:09   become as this becomes a natural

00:16:11   relatively straightforward process and

00:16:13   that for me would didn't like I did what

00:16:17   didn't appeal but didn't appeal to me

00:16:18   about that is that it I felt like I I

00:16:20   still always was sort of I never felt

00:16:23   secure and where I was because if I

00:16:25   didn't find an ex-client suddenly my

00:16:27   income drops to zero and so for me when

00:16:29   I got into products my goal was always

00:16:32   it's like can I take the approach of

00:16:36   being self-employed which is in both

00:16:37   cases was what I was going to do because

00:16:39   I just I fit fits better for my mindset

00:16:41   to be self-employed and as I can I be

00:16:43   self-employed in a way that provides

00:16:46   consistent predictable income into the

00:16:49   future not just predictable income in

00:16:52   the present which is what consulting was

00:16:54   and so I got into conducts in the hopes

00:16:56   that like creating what they like the

00:16:58   mythical passive income thing or you

00:17:01   make something and then it creates

00:17:03   income into the future rather than you

00:17:05   know doing work in the present that

00:17:06   creates money in the present and because

00:17:10   that became my goal like I didn't go set

00:17:13   out with the goal of striking it rich in

00:17:17   the way that you know you kind of it's I

00:17:19   get the impression this is a lot of what

00:17:21   a lot of game development or things or

00:17:22   movies or another example of an industry

00:17:24   where this is kind of the expectation or

00:17:26   venture capital even where it's your

00:17:28   goal is to have this massive runaway

00:17:30   success and that's what you're gearing

00:17:33   and aiming everything towards it's sort

00:17:36   of like more like you know when you're

00:17:37   going for the lottery approach whereas

00:17:40   with me and with the way I've structured

00:17:41   my business and then why I've done so

00:17:43   many apps over the year

00:17:45   why keep doing this over and over again

00:17:46   like I'm working on another app that

00:17:48   I'll be putting out by the hopefully by

00:17:49   the end of the year and it's because

00:17:52   what you the reality of having lots and

00:17:54   lots of things is that you end up with

00:17:56   tremendous diversity that both you

00:17:59   create opportunity for any of the

00:18:01   various products do well which is these

00:18:03   thank the simple version of that and

00:18:05   then also just in aggregate you know

00:18:08   five kind of not-so-great

00:18:11   results from a revenue or business

00:18:12   perspective add up to maybe one good

00:18:15   result and if one goes up and if it goes

00:18:18   down you out you end up in the same

00:18:20   place and like that in a weird way is

00:18:23   kind of boring like oh I want my

00:18:25   business to be as boring as possible

00:18:27   like in some ways I love when I look at

00:18:29   my revenue graphs and they're just

00:18:30   completely flat that's not what like

00:18:34   classic business wants you to do they

00:18:35   say oh it should be like where's it's

00:18:37   like up into this up and to the side I

00:18:38   want a hockey stick I want all these

00:18:40   things the signal I want it flat I

00:18:41   wasn't boring I want an approach that

00:18:45   doesn't really grow over time

00:18:48   I mean growth growth is great but it's

00:18:49   like I be I'll take flat over up and

00:18:52   down up and down up and down up and down

00:18:54   and so like for the approach I take and

00:18:56   this is why I think it works reasonably

00:18:57   well in the modern app store is that it

00:18:59   things are sure to the point that things

00:19:02   are kind of predictable but things are

00:19:04   you know if you are able to get a

00:19:07   certain amount owed

00:19:10   every day for the last six months it's

00:19:13   very unlikely that tomorrow that number

00:19:15   is going to go to zero like that's just

00:19:17   not the way the app like this is you end

00:19:19   up with all these structural advantages

00:19:22   in this sort of this modern system and I

00:19:25   think that is that it's Fred it's first

00:19:26   if I was talking to somebody who's

00:19:28   trying to get into this it's like making

00:19:29   sure that you understand what is your

00:19:31   goal like what would an ideal business

00:19:33   be looking forward to like what would

00:19:35   you like your business to look like and

00:19:37   then are you making choices to structure

00:19:39   it around that you know and for me I

00:19:40   want dead even boring flat boat you know

00:19:42   revenue so diversity is absolutely the

00:19:45   only way you're ever going to get that

00:19:47   kind of serve predictability in your

00:19:49   results and that's that's especially

00:19:51   important because you know and it leads

00:19:53   into a larger theme for me which is even

00:19:57   in the good times evenly

00:19:58   back with instant paper especially like

00:20:00   when the iPad launched that was a great

00:20:01   time for me that was the most money I've

00:20:03   ever made from anything in a year and

00:20:06   and everything I've done in the app

00:20:08   store since then has not reached that

00:20:10   level all of overcast you know the whole

00:20:13   time everything after that like

00:20:16   Instapaper during the first couple years

00:20:18   the iPad was really probably the peak of

00:20:20   my app sales career that I would

00:20:21   probably ever see and even then I knew I

00:20:26   I had in the back of my head the whole

00:20:28   time this will not last everything goes

00:20:32   up and down in the tech business in most

00:20:33   businesses but the technical seems to

00:20:35   just happen faster everything goes up

00:20:37   and down and when you have something

00:20:40   good when some when things are

00:20:42   succeeding it's very important to always

00:20:46   keep in mind this will end and plan for

00:20:49   that you know that's that's just an

00:20:50   expected part of your process then so

00:20:53   that way when it does start to decline

00:20:55   or have take a sharp drop off then you

00:20:59   you can be sad about that you can try to

00:21:00   reverse that but at least you know you

00:21:04   shouldn't be surprised that it happened

00:21:05   at all

00:21:06   you should know like everything goes up

00:21:08   and down and so what that means is when

00:21:11   you're in the up periods plan for the

00:21:14   down periods so that goes to very basic

00:21:17   things first of all obviously like save

00:21:19   money you know like all the money that

00:21:21   you get during the up periods bank as

00:21:23   much that as you can and and that that

00:21:25   will help you tremendously down the road

00:21:27   when you're in a down period and and you

00:21:29   you might need something to you know

00:21:31   clear the gap or whatever or to start a

00:21:33   new project also in the up periods when

00:21:36   you have when things are going well

00:21:37   leverage that success into things that

00:21:40   might help you during the down periods

00:21:42   so for instance you know you mentioned

00:21:44   diversity that is number one you know so

00:21:46   in the the up period is the time to

00:21:49   start spreading your wings to start

00:21:51   building a platform so when you have a

00:21:53   popular app that's a great time to start

00:21:55   a podcast or a blog or a YouTube channel

00:21:58   or something else you know spread out

00:22:00   when when people are looking at you

00:22:02   build new build new audiences to build

00:22:05   new places build new products you know

00:22:07   start looking into new things and then

00:22:09   when the thing that boosted you up in

00:22:11   the first place starts going

00:22:12   down you have these other this other

00:22:14   network of other places or products or

00:22:17   apps or audiences that can help you into

00:22:20   the next thing or that can become the

00:22:22   next thing themselves and and that I

00:22:24   mean the best I mean you can do that

00:22:26   anytime and you should do that I do that

00:22:27   whenever you can but the best time to do

00:22:29   it is when things are good because

00:22:30   that's when you have a little bit extra

00:22:32   money a little bit of extra time maybe

00:22:34   but you should be spending on that

00:22:36   because that's important that is really

00:22:38   the best strategy I can possibly give

00:22:40   for you know beyond just you know what

00:22:43   we've already said which is like you

00:22:44   know try lots of things and see what

00:22:46   succeeds and and and have diverse income

00:22:49   streams besides all that best thing I

00:22:51   can say is assume every good thing will

00:22:53   end and while it is good hoard as much

00:22:57   save as much as you possibly can and

00:22:59   then spread your wings into new things

00:23:02   then so that as those things are

00:23:05   building they're building with your

00:23:06   success and then when the success and

00:23:09   that first thing starts to dwindle you

00:23:10   have something else to fall back on or

00:23:12   to build up and I think the key thing do

00:23:15   what you're pointing out is that

00:23:16   diversity like for me diversity mostly

00:23:19   means having lots and lots of apps but

00:23:22   it doesn't have to mean that for

00:23:24   everybody I mean the same with like you

00:23:25   in general have been like an atmega

00:23:28   monogamous like you generally just sort

00:23:30   of had this one app after another that

00:23:33   you sort of you you you've tuned but as

00:23:35   you've been developing and you know over

00:23:38   the last eight years you've always been

00:23:39   diversifying out into different things

00:23:41   you had your blog for a while that was

00:23:43   very it's just sort of that was where

00:23:45   your energy was going into and that's

00:23:47   where you were sort of expanding out

00:23:48   into and then you went into podcasting

00:23:50   or it's like finding those whatever that

00:23:53   is for for you it makes sense for you

00:23:56   know that like if you're a good writer

00:23:57   maybe blogging is great if you like

00:23:58   video or audio podcasting is great a lot

00:24:02   of I know a lot of people who diversify

00:24:03   out into education you know you start

00:24:06   doing training or book writing or

00:24:09   whatever there's no money in book

00:24:10   writing interesting yes that's not a

00:24:12   great plan yeah but maybe bit of

00:24:14   training I think is a reasonable thing

00:24:15   or finding ways to take small successes

00:24:18   and sort of it's like turning them into

00:24:22   other other in broader extinct is a

00:24:24   great way in

00:24:25   where your you're not going to

00:24:28   necessarily be able to just have a

00:24:30   runaway hit in the App Store itself to

00:24:33   find a way to make a bigger and broader

00:24:35   living and like that's where you can

00:24:37   grow in a lot of ways and and it is kind

00:24:40   of a strange land delightful sort of

00:24:42   like cyclical pattern to where the more

00:24:45   you're able to do that the easier it is

00:24:47   subsequently to launch successful apps

00:24:50   and you know you it's the building a

00:24:52   enough of a reputation for yourself that

00:24:55   you can when you launch something new

00:24:57   people are at least take a look at it

00:25:00   there's no guarantee it doesn't like

00:25:02   make you do the thing just like an

00:25:03   automatic success but it gives you into

00:25:06   the door in a way that it wouldn't

00:25:08   otherwise if you just threw things out

00:25:10   over the wall into the App Store and

00:25:11   then like walked away exactly and and as

00:25:14   you try more things you get better at

00:25:16   doing them you know like it's you know

00:25:18   now it's a lot easier for me to start a

00:25:20   new podcast now than it was four years

00:25:22   ago because I've done a lot of podcast

00:25:24   since then I know how to do it now I

00:25:26   know what works and what doesn't to some

00:25:27   degree and so if I launch a new podcast

00:25:30   now it's way less risky than it used to

00:25:31   be you suppose I've done it a lot you

00:25:32   know if you launch a new app today

00:25:34   you're you can be pretty sure you know

00:25:37   roughly what it will take to get it done

00:25:39   roughly what it will take to get it in

00:25:40   the store and an approximate you know

00:25:43   estimate of how much you think it might

00:25:44   make in the first X months or whatever

00:25:45   you know if things go well you you've

00:25:48   launched so many apps that now you've

00:25:50   just gotten good at launching apps right

00:25:51   so any skills you can build along the

00:25:54   way you know in that kind of way it

00:25:56   helps to to just build up your

00:25:59   confidence over time you know just again

00:26:00   the more you try the more you put out

00:26:02   there the the better it will be and then

00:26:05   as things kind of you know take seed or

00:26:09   whatever and I don't know anything about

00:26:10   growing things as the plants that you

00:26:13   plant take root some of them will and

00:26:16   and then you know then you can you're

00:26:19   just building up this career over time

00:26:20   it's the slow growth trying a whole

00:26:23   bunch of stuff and eventually some of it

00:26:25   will work and then as that works you

00:26:27   keep building you keep spreading out

00:26:29   even further you build up what you have

00:26:31   them as much as much as you can you save

00:26:33   when the times are good that this is how

00:26:35   you survive in this climate yeah

00:26:39   it's also probably a good place to point

00:26:41   out that more likely than not your goal

00:26:45   should it's like you want to have a

00:26:48   strategy that is going to work for your

00:26:50   career in a long term ma'am yes it's

00:26:53   like taking the approach of like okay

00:26:55   what I want to do is I want to start off

00:26:57   by winning the lottery and then I live

00:26:59   on my lottery winnings for the rest of

00:27:00   my life like if that was your approach

00:27:03   to life it's a good story it is it's

00:27:05   it's interesting but like what does that

00:27:08   look like five years into that plan even

00:27:10   if your plan worked like even if somehow

00:27:12   that meant your plan magically worked

00:27:13   five years in you have like this pile of

00:27:17   money that you're gradually chipping

00:27:18   away at like it doesn't sound like

00:27:20   healthy from a mental health perspective

00:27:22   of like what are you doing like people

00:27:24   like to have a sense of purpose and

00:27:25   direction in their day and you're

00:27:27   accomplishing things but it's also just

00:27:30   I don't think not a good sort of

00:27:33   approach to take that you're it's not

00:27:35   you know the goal is something is to

00:27:38   have something that is going to work

00:27:39   years down the road and there are

00:27:41   certainly things that I wish I had done

00:27:42   you know eight years ago compared to now

00:27:45   but I think increasingly then maybe this

00:27:48   is like a wisdom as you get older kind

00:27:50   of perspective but increasingly I look

00:27:51   at these things that's like what am I

00:27:53   going to be doing in five years and

00:27:55   while I don't know the specifics like I

00:27:56   don't know what that's gonna be what

00:27:59   platforms I'm gonna be on if I'm gonna

00:28:00   be still developing if I'm gonna be

00:28:02   still an apple developer like who knows

00:28:03   that's you know that kind of thing is

00:28:05   unknowable but I look at what I'm doing

00:28:07   now and I'm saying like am i doing

00:28:08   things that are going to give me options

00:28:11   in the future that are going to open

00:28:13   doors and keep me capable like skills

00:28:15   and abilities that are going to be you

00:28:17   know we're valuable in general not

00:28:19   valuable in specific because technology

00:28:21   is going to change platforms gonna

00:28:23   change

00:28:23   economics are gonna change everything's

00:28:25   always going to be changing but like I

00:28:27   will I'll be the same here and then as I

00:28:31   will be in the future and so am i doing

00:28:33   things for myself now that are going to

00:28:35   benefit like future future me is going

00:28:36   to be thankful that I was making these

00:28:38   choices now rather than sort of just

00:28:40   yeah going crazy like hey things are you

00:28:42   know like uh if you hit it big in the

00:28:43   App Store awesome good for you like

00:28:45   maybe don't go buy a Ferrari because

00:28:47   like past year if your future self is

00:28:49   problem likely to be super super

00:28:52   thrilled about

00:28:52   car payments for the years and years to

00:28:54   come and the first time you need to

00:28:55   replace the clutch and also I would I

00:28:58   would I would end with one more thing to

00:28:59   that as you as you spread around and as

00:29:03   you start things and explore new options

00:29:04   it's very important to explore and

00:29:08   invest in things that are on their way

00:29:09   up

00:29:10   not that are kind of in the past and

00:29:12   it's hard for me to say that because I

00:29:13   like a lot of things from the past but

00:29:14   you know like today is probably not a

00:29:18   great time to start making a mac app you

00:29:21   know as much as it kills me to say that

00:29:22   it's probably not a great time for that

00:29:23   market wise it's a decent time to to be

00:29:27   working on things like you know YouTube

00:29:30   and I don't know what else but other

00:29:33   people can figure that out but the point

00:29:36   is like invest in things that are

00:29:38   growing and things that have that have a

00:29:40   likely future bigger than their present

00:29:42   because what growing means and and try

00:29:44   to minimize how much you you're assuming

00:29:46   that the past will continue to state the

00:29:48   full state will continue to exist

00:29:49   basically so anyway with that said thank

00:29:53   you for listening everybody and we will

00:29:55   talk to you next week bye