Under the Radar 1: Adapting to the Market
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we should to be intro didn't work that
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it's fine it's alright all right so this
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is episode 1 of under the radar I'm
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Marco Arment and I'm David Smith you may
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know our other podcasts david has been
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doing developing perspective for many
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years I did build and analyze first now
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I do the accidental tech podcast and
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top-4 and this is going to be a show
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about development basically it's kind of
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like the the the sequel the combination
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of build and analyze with developing
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perspective and in the spirit of
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developing respective never being longer
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than 15 minutes David how long is this
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true gonna be never longer than 30
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minutes so let's get started let's get
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started I think the place to start seems
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right now we're recording just after the
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Apple TV app store launched and it went
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online I think on last Friday and it's
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you know it's had it had a the usual
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fanfare and the things that go on with
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that but neither one of us launched
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anything on day one and then for myself
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it's the first Apple product I've ever
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not been in the store on day one for
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which is interesting
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yeah I'm the same way I I think I mean I
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was there for the watch and the Apple TV
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and I even I even got one of the early
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access developer units because I thought
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I might use it and it just literally sat
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on my desk and I was I was so busy doing
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other things because I was doing I was
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working on overcast and trying to get
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the 2.0 update out the door and that
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kind of precluded this because if I'm
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gonna make an Apple TV app it has to be
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all about streaming because local
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storage with the Apple TV is so limited
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and I didn't have the streaming engine
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done yet so I worked on the iPhone app
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first and I've been I've been doing bug
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fixes on that since and I just I have
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literally not even opened like an Xcode
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project with the TV I've no I haven't
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even seen the TV simulator I have not
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written a single line of TV code yet
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have you yeah I I got a I got a
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developer kit as well and I wrote a
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version of Padre angler my podcast
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client for the Apple TV and it works and
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it plays I didn't
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spend the time and energy to get it
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ready for day one though but it's like
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it's an interesting developer platform
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because it is essentially iOS just - a
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bunch of stuff like there's a couple of
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new things but essentially it's just i
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OS UI kids with a different input
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mechanism rather than obviously being
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touch based it's remote control based
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but I used it and is like it's it's fine
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and easy the thing that ultimately I
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think slowed me down though is I just
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became like there's just so much else to
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do and so many other things that like if
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I'm trying to be on every Apple platform
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as a one-man shop it's essentially
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impossible now and so I looked at the
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Apple TV and I'm like it's gonna be a
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long time before there's a big market
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there and so I just didn't prioritize it
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yeah and you know and I feel like you
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know we're coming at this from from two
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different viewpoints here you know I'm I
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tend to work on a very small
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I tend to work on usually one app for a
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span of years I very rarely have
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additional apps I'm not very good at
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splitting my time between multiple apps
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I pretty much just do one thing and I
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try to make that one app big and
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complicated and appeal to a ton of
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people in order to to keep it going
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whereas the background you come from is
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is I think much more interesting
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honestly because you know when people
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and this is one of the reasons I wanted
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to do the show with you and one of the
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reasons I wanted to call it under the
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radar because when people do when people
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think about Apple developers they tend
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to think about the handful of well-known
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ones who make mass consumer apps that
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you may have heard of so apps like tweet
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bot or net newswire and or you know the
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apps from panic that that you know a lot
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of developers have heard of or use or
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wowed by and there's this massive number
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of developers who we don't usually hear
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about in in the circle of like Apple
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enthusiasts and tech bloggers and stuff
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and I think you are a very very good
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example of of this massive market and
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and I think you you do it better than
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most people would do it and so what you
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do is not like the high profile you know
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a high attention mac blogger long term
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ecosystem kind of thing
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you do something way more pragmatic and
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so can you maybe you just go into that
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briefly for anyone who doesn't know you
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yet from who's listening to this for
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some reason can you go into like what
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exactly you do and and how you got there
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so I yeah so I've been an iOS developer
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essentially since the AppStore started
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about seven and a bit years ago I didn't
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quite make the day one of the AppStore
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mostly because of like business approval
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stuff but I've been developing ever
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since then and since then I've launched
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I think I recently worked this out to
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something like fifty-two unique app
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concepts in the last seven years so it
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works out to be about once every one
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every two months or so it hasn't been
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exactly that even if a pace but that's
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roughly the average and but I've been
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making a good steady comfortable living
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from it for about six-and-a-half of
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those seven years and so I I have lots
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of different products in a lot of
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different areas my tend to like at this
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point I have probably five or six that
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are like my main income makers and they
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each the biggest one of them only makes
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up a third of my income so it's a very
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diversified type of thing and that's my
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the approach that I found that works
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well for me is to make lots of small
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bets and see which one pays off in the
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store rather than trying to take the
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approach like with overcast if I
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remember right it's like you spend
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eighteen months working on it YUM as
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like a big major focus and like for me
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the longest I've ever spent in a product
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before I launched it is probably four
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weeks or something along those lines and
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so it's a very different kind of a focus
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where I'll put something together I'll
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put it out in the store I try and make
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it like good in quality but very
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straightforward and you know see what
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happens and that approach means that I
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end up now with a lots of different
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products doing a lot of different things
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and you know I'm as if it's you know I
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have the benefit of diversity in terms
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of stability but the difficulty in terms
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of keeping up with things when I have
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such a wide sort of portfolio to manage
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and one thing I like about the way you
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work as well is that you challenged
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assumptions that
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any of us in like the the other half of
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this community don't challenge like you
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will like you you make your income in
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part from I add I don't know anybody
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else I'm I don't think I have any other
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developer friends who have a meaningful
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presence with using I ads and and you do
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and you will challenge assumptions based
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on things like monetization support app
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concepts I'll design like all sorts of
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stuff that that you challenge and and I
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think you benefit from that because you
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while everyone else's is locked into
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this one way of thinking and trying to
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shape the App Store into like trying to
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like you know educate consumers into the
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way they think the App Store should be
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you are out there actually adapting and
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and thriving and what the App Store
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actually is yeah I mean I I think I try
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and think of when I look at the App
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Store think is a business in general
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like I can't change my customers all I
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can do is react to them for them for the
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most part like I like using things like
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people who should want to pay for
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software as like a statement it doesn't
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make any sense to me like people are
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going to want to do whatever they want
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to do and like my job as a developer as
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a businessman is to look at the market
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that I'm I want to work in and find ways
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to adapt my business to it and I don't
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just use I adore advertising like I make
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the majority of my income from
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advertising and I add and that's been in
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somebody's been far more stable than any
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of the more paid or subscription or
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patronage or all the other things that I
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have like the most stable income I get
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is from advertising and I love it
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because advertising is great because it
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I've it the likely Adelines developer
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and customer like goals like my goal is
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to get them using the app as much as I
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can because the more they use it the
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more advertising income I make and from
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you know if they're using the app a lot
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that means they like it and so for me it
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was a no-brainer to get started but it
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definitely is I know what you mean like
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it's it's a bit counter to I think a lot
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of the it's not necessary
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pretentiousness but there's a there's a
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definitely that air of like like you
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want Apple you want to sell an Apple
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like product in the App Store
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but that doesn't necessarily work
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because apple doesn't even sell apple
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like products in the App Store
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yeah and I think this was all like I
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think this was all rooted in the the
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community of like kind of like nice
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Kraft Mac independent developers that
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that has existed for quite some time on
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the Mac before iOS and everything became
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really so big you know people like panic
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or delicious monster you know people
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brent simmons dave wantanabe like
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there's this crowd of like kind of old
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school the old guard who have been
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around for a while you know omni group
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is a big one who've been very successful
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at this and and many of them continue to
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be very successful at this but there was
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this idea for so long that many people
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still hold that that would translate
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into iOS and that also any developer who
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would be able to program iOS apps would
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kind of think that they deserved that
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same level of success if they just put a
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lit there at all or if they put you know
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a lot of work into something and and
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there's many problems with this that are
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way too long to discuss in a 30 minute
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podcast one of which is that that the
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amount of work you put into something
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does not correlate to the value that the
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market will place on it or the amount of
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money you can make from it but I think
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it's productive to challenge this notion
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of like well you know is this really the
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way the world should work and and
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regardless of whether I think it should
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work this way if this is not the way the
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world works like in practice
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what what can I do as a developer to to
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succeed in this market and sitting
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around waiting for the market to change
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to benefit you is probably not very
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productive because that's just unlikely
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to happen yeah and the interesting thing
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I was wondering what you think about
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this cuz I'm seeing the the spread of
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the of your app career in the App Store
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like he's starting an instant paper
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which was paid upfront $10 if I remember
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right yeah the whole first year it was
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10 bucks and I dropped at the 5 minute
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and then it's like following the
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progression then I think you know your
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income started to shift in some ways
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more to subscription and in-app purchase
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and then switching entirely to overcast
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where it became it was you know free
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with in-app purchase
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four features and then now it's entirely
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free with like patronage support mm-hmm
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it's you've done you've essentially
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followed the trajectory of the App Store
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in that way right you're starting with
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like the the old school kind of well
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it's it's premium software I should
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charge a lot of money to it's still good
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software but the way you pay for it is
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completely different right and and most
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of that has again just been because I am
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like I'm not like thinking I'm like you
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know treading new ground and being an
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explorer no I'm usually coming to these
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to these changes late actually like I
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like instapaper holding the price at $10
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for the whole first year was a mistake
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when I dropped at the fives
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sales went up considerably and then you
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know later on it dropped to three I
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think I held it for a while three or
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four and then you know in sales were
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pretty good then I started experimenting
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and then shifting to subscription that
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that ended up making way more money than
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I thought it would and doing very well
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and then with overcast coming out at
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free with in-app purchase and now with
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patron eggs like those have all done
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better than I expected them to and you
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know it this is all about just adapting
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to what the market is many people blame
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the market on on you know Apple not
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implementing upgrade pricing or the App
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Store not having good enough discovery
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or search and and all of those things
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are valid complaints but they're not the
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biggest problem the biggest problem is
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there's just a huge oversupply of
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developers and apps who are who are all
00:12:39
◼
►
trying to compete for the same dollars
00:12:40
◼
►
in the same roles in the same time and
00:12:42
◼
►
attention and so you know back in the
00:12:44
◼
►
olden days when you'd have like panic
00:12:46
◼
►
and omni selling mac apps for 50 bucks
00:12:49
◼
►
that worked in part because of what they
00:12:52
◼
►
were and what people use max for and who
00:12:54
◼
►
was buying max but also that worked in
00:12:56
◼
►
part because there just weren't that
00:12:58
◼
►
many developers doing it if you would
00:13:00
◼
►
have had 10,000 developers trying to
00:13:02
◼
►
make the same handful of nice consumer
00:13:05
◼
►
high-profile mac apps you would have had
00:13:07
◼
►
the exact same problem back then
00:13:09
◼
►
it isn't that the market has has like
00:13:12
◼
►
gotten stupider or cheaper or anything
00:13:14
◼
►
like that it's that this is now the mass
00:13:17
◼
►
market of what developers do it wasn't
00:13:19
◼
►
you know back in 2006
00:13:21
◼
►
most developers weren't working on mac
00:13:23
◼
►
apps now most developers are working on
00:13:26
◼
►
iOS and web apps and a span I think it's
00:13:28
◼
►
I think the shift from web to iOS apps
00:13:30
◼
►
is really pretty pretty significant and
00:13:33
◼
►
so if you think about just that's what
00:13:35
◼
►
so many developers are working on of
00:13:37
◼
►
course was going to be a massive
00:13:39
◼
►
oversupply and of course there's going
00:13:41
◼
►
to be tons of competition and a race to
00:13:43
◼
►
the bottom and pricing and that's not
00:13:45
◼
►
because apples doing something wrong you
00:13:48
◼
►
know Apple is not helping in certain
00:13:49
◼
►
ways but they're not the cause of this
00:13:51
◼
►
problem and you know again pragmatically
00:13:53
◼
►
it is it is useful to think of yourself
00:13:56
◼
►
not as somebody who all you need to do
00:13:59
◼
►
is is ship a nicely designed polished
00:14:02
◼
►
app and money will start flowing in but
00:14:05
◼
►
as somebody who has to really fight like
00:14:08
◼
►
really like work hard and fight hard and
00:14:11
◼
►
be lean to try to attract any kind of
00:14:14
◼
►
attention and any kind of money from
00:14:16
◼
►
what is a very crowded hyper competitive
00:14:19
◼
►
market and I think it's also that the
00:14:21
◼
►
biggest trap that I know I struggled
00:14:23
◼
►
with for years was untwist this over
00:14:26
◼
►
this feeling of over valuing my own work
00:14:28
◼
►
that if I spent a long time working on
00:14:31
◼
►
something that everybody should then
00:14:33
◼
►
sort of oh it should it somehow
00:14:36
◼
►
intrinsically that makes it more
00:14:37
◼
►
valuable to people right that they look
00:14:39
◼
►
at something it's like whereas when like
00:14:42
◼
►
when people are going to part with money
00:14:43
◼
►
in whatever form that is like whether
00:14:45
◼
►
that's right or I guess part with
00:14:46
◼
►
something like their attention their
00:14:48
◼
►
money their it they're exchanging
00:14:51
◼
►
something for that like there they need
00:14:53
◼
►
to be feel like they're getting
00:14:54
◼
►
something in return and the funny thing
00:14:58
◼
►
is I think a lot of people think that
00:15:00
◼
►
software intrinsically should feel
00:15:02
◼
►
valuable like as their like the classic
00:15:04
◼
►
that oh it's it's people will spend five
00:15:06
◼
►
dollars on a latte but they won't spend
00:15:07
◼
►
five dollars on my app and it's like
00:15:10
◼
►
well maybe they actually want the latte
00:15:12
◼
►
more than they want your app like your
00:15:13
◼
►
app may not actually be that that
00:15:15
◼
►
valuable to them and that's why they're
00:15:17
◼
►
they don't want to spend that money on
00:15:18
◼
►
it's like you have to be able to wrap
00:15:19
◼
►
your arms around what they're actually
00:15:21
◼
►
buying with that like is it
00:15:23
◼
►
entertainment is it productivity is it
00:15:27
◼
►
amusement is it
00:15:29
◼
►
are they exchanging goodwill for money
00:15:30
◼
►
like things like when you start to get
00:15:32
◼
►
into like I know I've
00:15:34
◼
►
and an app with the tip jar in it or you
00:15:36
◼
►
have patronage and overcast now like the
00:15:38
◼
►
uric sense they are cure providing a
00:15:39
◼
►
mechanism for people to exchange
00:15:40
◼
►
goodwill for money is really what your
00:15:43
◼
►
have what you're doing there and unless
00:15:45
◼
►
you're able to really wrap your arms
00:15:47
◼
►
around that it's hard to really like be
00:15:48
◼
►
okay with saying like that's okay like I
00:15:50
◼
►
do advertising because for a lot of my
00:15:52
◼
►
apps like the app itself isn't
00:15:54
◼
►
particularly valuable to the person it's
00:15:56
◼
►
useful but it's not necessarily valuable
00:15:58
◼
►
in a way that for a lot of people they
00:16:00
◼
►
want to play we want to put money into
00:16:01
◼
►
it directly once they used to once they
00:16:04
◼
►
use it for a while and like it they are
00:16:08
◼
►
willing to piss spend money but they're
00:16:09
◼
►
not spending money for the functionality
00:16:11
◼
►
they're spending money to be able to
00:16:12
◼
►
express the goodwill they have towards
00:16:14
◼
►
me for the benefit I've given them but
00:16:16
◼
►
that's different than it being
00:16:19
◼
►
intrinsically valuable to them because
00:16:20
◼
►
when they started they didn't see it as
00:16:22
◼
►
valuable they wanted it to be free and
00:16:23
◼
►
if it wasn't free I don't think like
00:16:25
◼
►
I've you know my pedometer a pedometer
00:16:27
◼
►
plus plus wouldn't have sold at all or
00:16:29
◼
►
at least in that not in large quantity
00:16:30
◼
►
that it has you know to this point yeah
00:16:33
◼
►
you know even as a consumer of apps now
00:16:35
◼
►
I find myself even as somebody who has
00:16:37
◼
►
been a proponent of paid apps for so
00:16:38
◼
►
long and sold one for so long when I
00:16:41
◼
►
search for something in the App Store
00:16:43
◼
►
and I see the search results list you
00:16:45
◼
►
know if I need if I needed something
00:16:46
◼
►
that I'm not looking for a specific name
00:16:48
◼
►
where I'm just looking for a specific
00:16:49
◼
►
type of app so a pedometer or a step
00:16:51
◼
►
count or whatever you know if I search
00:16:53
◼
►
the App Store and the first 20 entries
00:16:56
◼
►
in the search are all free and number
00:16:59
◼
►
twenty one is four bucks that one
00:17:02
◼
►
doesn't stand a chance like that's just
00:17:04
◼
►
and that's just the reality of how
00:17:05
◼
►
people search the App Store and and it's
00:17:08
◼
►
it's very important that you know as you
00:17:09
◼
►
said like to recognize that and and you
00:17:13
◼
►
know to recognize that not every app
00:17:15
◼
►
that Avery that every developer makes is
00:17:18
◼
►
going to be worth a non-trivial number
00:17:21
◼
►
of customers spending $2 on it or
00:17:23
◼
►
whatever you know like I mean I've seen
00:17:25
◼
►
so many apps that do things that I don't
00:17:28
◼
►
really need you know like like so many
00:17:31
◼
►
apps that are things like coffee timers
00:17:32
◼
►
well you know if a coffee timer is
00:17:35
◼
►
really good and it's free I might use it
00:17:37
◼
►
or I can just use the built-in timer on
00:17:41
◼
►
the device that's not as good but it
00:17:43
◼
►
works and I think a lot of people go
00:17:45
◼
►
through a similar kind of thought
00:17:46
◼
►
process of you know if you if
00:17:48
◼
►
it's such a different barrier than than
00:17:50
◼
►
any price and and if you're if you're
00:17:53
◼
►
looking at an app the alternative isn't
00:17:55
◼
►
just every other app that's in the store
00:17:57
◼
►
that does that same thing
00:17:58
◼
►
the alternative is also just
00:18:00
◼
►
non-consumption it's not buying the app
00:18:02
◼
►
at all not buying any app and just going
00:18:05
◼
►
without that role in your life and as we
00:18:07
◼
►
get more and more and more apps in the
00:18:10
◼
►
store which is only you know that's been
00:18:12
◼
►
going on forever now as we get more more
00:18:14
◼
►
apps in the store and more and more
00:18:15
◼
►
demands for people's attention and more
00:18:17
◼
►
more alternatives that they can do like
00:18:19
◼
►
if they don't download your app they can
00:18:20
◼
►
go check Twitter for a few minutes or
00:18:22
◼
►
play a game and as we get more and more
00:18:25
◼
►
of those things more more competition
00:18:26
◼
►
for everything non consumption is also a
00:18:30
◼
►
big problem and so anything you can do
00:18:31
◼
►
to to address non-consumption to address
00:18:34
◼
►
people just bailing out and abandoning
00:18:36
◼
►
this this search that or this idea they
00:18:37
◼
►
might have had that this thing they
00:18:38
◼
►
wanted to do and going free is a huge
00:18:41
◼
►
hit against that like if you can remove
00:18:43
◼
►
that barrier of price upfront then it's
00:18:46
◼
►
so much easier for people to say you
00:18:48
◼
►
know what yeah I'll give it a try and
00:18:50
◼
►
it's then I guess the reality is that's
00:18:52
◼
►
how I think we've both been able to
00:18:54
◼
►
continue in in the App Store at this
00:18:57
◼
►
point and we've been doing it for a long
00:18:58
◼
►
time who is I ever anecdotally it seems
00:19:02
◼
►
like fewer and fewer smaller or lot more
00:19:06
◼
►
independent companies and where people
00:19:08
◼
►
are able to do it and I do you think a
00:19:10
◼
►
lot of it is that it's a lack of
00:19:11
◼
►
pragmatism that a lack of just like what
00:19:14
◼
►
is it going to take to make a living in
00:19:17
◼
►
this market and if you ultimately don't
00:19:18
◼
►
like the answer to that if you're in
00:19:19
◼
►
your mind you'll you only want to sell
00:19:21
◼
►
software in like a premium App Store
00:19:23
◼
►
it's like ok well you might need to do
00:19:25
◼
►
something else then because that may not
00:19:28
◼
►
yeah and you need to be in the right
00:19:29
◼
►
place at the right time if you want that
00:19:30
◼
►
you know if if if you will not budge in
00:19:32
◼
►
that like so right now so getting back
00:19:34
◼
►
for a second to the Apple TV which is
00:19:35
◼
►
getting out now the Apple TV app store
00:19:38
◼
►
has almost nothing in it it is very very
00:19:40
◼
►
sparse and if you are looking for
00:19:43
◼
►
something like like so I got this Apple
00:19:45
◼
►
TV I plugged it in set it up and I went
00:19:48
◼
►
right to the App Store to see hey what
00:19:49
◼
►
can I get here and I thought a couple of
00:19:51
◼
►
basic you know Netflix HBO now whatever
00:19:54
◼
►
and then okay let me try some games I
00:19:56
◼
►
got this cool thing I'm in the mood of
00:19:57
◼
►
trying new things let me go to the App
00:19:59
◼
►
Store and try some games and I went and
00:20:02
◼
►
I don't know ten bucks maybe total on a
00:20:04
◼
►
couple of games and I didn't even think
00:20:06
◼
►
about it because I'm in this buying mood
00:20:08
◼
►
because I just got this new device it's
00:20:09
◼
►
brand new has me excited and also
00:20:11
◼
►
there's hardly anything there to buy and
00:20:14
◼
►
of the very small number of games there
00:20:16
◼
►
were there to buy almost all of them I
00:20:19
◼
►
think we're paid or at least many of
00:20:20
◼
►
them were so I had no problem spending
00:20:23
◼
►
that money because of the context of
00:20:26
◼
►
this isn't a tremendous App Store filled
00:20:28
◼
►
with millions of apps most of which are
00:20:30
◼
►
free this is a very very small App Store
00:20:33
◼
►
that right now that has only very few
00:20:36
◼
►
apps on it and you know that's that's
00:20:38
◼
►
that's the reason I was able to charge
00:20:39
◼
►
10 bucks for Instapaper in 2008 you know
00:20:41
◼
►
but but then I couldn't in 2009 because
00:20:43
◼
►
the after was too full that's gonna
00:20:45
◼
►
happen with the Apple TV also you know
00:20:47
◼
►
if this thing takes off if this succeeds
00:20:48
◼
►
and and it looks like it's probably
00:20:50
◼
►
going to I mean it might take a few
00:20:52
◼
►
years before it has like tons and tons
00:20:53
◼
►
of Units out there but it's probably
00:20:55
◼
►
going to succeed and if that happens or
00:20:58
◼
►
as that happens there the App Store is
00:21:01
◼
►
gonna be way more crowded than it is now
00:21:03
◼
►
and it is going to get harder and harder
00:21:05
◼
►
to sell games and apps for the Apple TV
00:21:07
◼
►
for money once there is competition for
00:21:10
◼
►
for that same role in people's lives and
00:21:12
◼
►
so if you if you were gonna be the kind
00:21:14
◼
►
of person who wanted to sell a premium
00:21:16
◼
►
app for money
00:21:17
◼
►
you just had a window to do that on the
00:21:20
◼
►
Apple TV almost no one has taken up that
00:21:22
◼
►
out that opportunity but you just had
00:21:24
◼
►
that opportunity right now and it won't
00:21:26
◼
►
come again on the Apple TV probably ever
00:21:28
◼
►
you know at this like this product and
00:21:30
◼
►
that has now done that and it probably
00:21:32
◼
►
won't come again yeah and so you have to
00:21:34
◼
►
wait till the next big wave and you have
00:21:36
◼
►
to be in one of those positions where if
00:21:38
◼
►
you're not going to to be in a if you're
00:21:41
◼
►
not gonna be the kind of person who can
00:21:42
◼
►
thrive in an ultra competitive
00:21:43
◼
►
low-priced environment like the web has
00:21:46
◼
►
pretty much always been and like the iOS
00:21:49
◼
►
App Store is now then you have to follow
00:21:52
◼
►
the trend and be early to things be
00:21:54
◼
►
there on day one when new things happen
00:21:56
◼
►
be able to be able to figure out and
00:21:57
◼
►
guess which new things will take off
00:21:59
◼
►
which is a hugely risky process that you
00:22:01
◼
►
will often get wrong and it will often
00:22:03
◼
►
go completely to waste and and be there
00:22:06
◼
►
in those less competitive markets but
00:22:08
◼
►
then as soon as the market becomes more
00:22:09
◼
►
competitive you have to either adapt or
00:22:11
◼
►
leave yeah and I think the difficulty
00:22:13
◼
►
honestly with Apple TV and why I well I
00:22:15
◼
►
think I agree
00:22:15
◼
►
like the best time to sold big software
00:22:18
◼
►
would have been like if being there on
00:22:20
◼
►
day one my suspicion is the narrowness
00:22:22
◼
►
of the window where there's going to
00:22:24
◼
►
have that kind of general rush in people
00:22:27
◼
►
being okay with buying things is narrow
00:22:29
◼
►
enough that I'm very skeptical if it
00:22:32
◼
►
would actually be financially successful
00:22:34
◼
►
for most people that if they had you
00:22:38
◼
►
know spend a lot of time made it a nice
00:22:39
◼
►
big premium game or something like that
00:22:41
◼
►
especially designed specifically for the
00:22:44
◼
►
Apple TV the window in which they were
00:22:46
◼
►
going to be able to to sell into a kind
00:22:48
◼
►
of a premium group of people like people
00:22:50
◼
►
who obviously were excited enough about
00:22:52
◼
►
the product to get on day one they're
00:22:54
◼
►
very you know they've just spent a red
00:22:57
◼
►
for in Apple terms a relatively small
00:22:59
◼
►
amount of money for it you know it's a
00:23:01
◼
►
they're not nearly as expensive as a lot
00:23:03
◼
►
of the other other products that you
00:23:04
◼
►
know I can iPhone $700 or something
00:23:06
◼
►
whereas this is a hundred and something
00:23:07
◼
►
or two hundred and so that window is
00:23:11
◼
►
going to be very narrow and so if you
00:23:13
◼
►
are worried if your app requires that
00:23:16
◼
►
you then have big sis that you know big
00:23:19
◼
►
sustained sales over the next few months
00:23:21
◼
►
my suspicion is that's going to be a
00:23:24
◼
►
losing proposition and so that's
00:23:27
◼
►
interesting and you know it's the Apple
00:23:30
◼
►
TV I think will be a nice sort of much
00:23:32
◼
►
ways like many ways like the watch it's
00:23:34
◼
►
just an add-on to the main product that
00:23:37
◼
►
Apple sells like which is the iPhone
00:23:39
◼
►
it's like the iPad in many ways the idea
00:23:41
◼
►
to watch now the Apple TV these are all
00:23:43
◼
►
just add-ons to get di OS ecosystem that
00:23:46
◼
►
exists for the iPhone yeah and and you
00:23:49
◼
►
know and I think the the value that you
00:23:52
◼
►
can get out of being there yeah I think
00:23:54
◼
►
you make a very good point about about
00:23:55
◼
►
that window being fairly narrow I think
00:23:57
◼
►
how narrow it is depends on how easy it
00:24:01
◼
►
is to develop for it and how many people
00:24:03
◼
►
realize how quickly they need to be
00:24:06
◼
►
developing for do they want to be
00:24:07
◼
►
developing for it so with the iPhone
00:24:09
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that was very very quick really because
00:24:11
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the iPhone already had a massive
00:24:13
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installed base there was tons of pent
00:24:15
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demand to develop for it and people like
00:24:16
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not the doors down to get there most
00:24:18
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platforms don't work that way the watch
00:24:21
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I think has has kind of fizzled out on
00:24:23
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the watch I think is kind of at a
00:24:25
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standstill right now I don't know of any
00:24:26
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really interesting stuff that's happened
00:24:28
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on the watch
00:24:29
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last month say you know it seems like
00:24:31
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not a lot is going on there and we'll
00:24:33
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talk about that in future episodes I'm
00:24:35
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sure yeah and the TV is now out but it's
00:24:38
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starting from an installed base of zero
00:24:39
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for a product that people are excited
00:24:42
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about but not so excited that they're
00:24:43
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gonna go out and like raid all the
00:24:45
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stores and deplete all the stock on day
00:24:46
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one so it's gonna that's gonna have a
00:24:49
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slower build-up and so if that buildup
00:24:51
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is slower also on the developer supply
00:24:53
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side where fewer developers are jumping
00:24:55
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in so soon so quickly then I think you
00:24:57
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do have a wider window like I would say
00:25:00
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the biggest sales day for Apple TV apps
00:25:02
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this year is gonna be the day after
00:25:04
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Christmas and if you are there I think
00:25:06
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you can still sell a nice $10 game the
00:25:10
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day after christmas in in big volumes
00:25:11
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this year but probably not next year
00:25:14
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let's see yeah I would say I'm more on
00:25:17
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the skeptical side of that but I think
00:25:18
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you're right insofar as that's a
00:25:20
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reasonable it's going to this the next
00:25:24
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few months will be interesting for it
00:25:26
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and I think the Apple TV
00:25:27
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I will ultimately develop for it though
00:25:30
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and which is probably a good place to
00:25:31
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wrap up is to say like I expect to make
00:25:33
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make apps for it mostly because having a
00:25:38
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it's a checkbox that I can check for
00:25:41
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►
form up from some of my applications to
00:25:43
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say like could make them just that
00:25:44
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little bit more appealing to somebody if
00:25:46
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someone was on the fence about
00:25:47
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downloading my app and they're like oh
00:25:48
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it'll work for the Apple TV awesome then
00:25:51
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it's like that little little thing but
00:25:53
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it's not a priority for me insofar as I
00:25:55
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don't think it's gonna ever be a primary
00:25:57
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►
driver for my business it's like same as
00:25:59
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the watch I make watch apps for a lot of
00:26:01
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my apps mostly just so that it's like if
00:26:02
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someone if for the narrow group of
00:26:04
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people for that's all they needed to go
00:26:06
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►
over the edge then it was worthwhile for
00:26:08
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me but in and of itself it's probably
00:26:10
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not yeah and that that could be a whole
00:26:12
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beside right there
00:26:12
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and I I totally agree with everything
00:26:15
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you said that I'm also I expect to to
00:26:18
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launch Xcode for the first time to make
00:26:19
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►
an Apple TV app probably this week I'd
00:26:21
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►
like to see how easy it is to get
00:26:23
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►
overcast or run on it but again it's
00:26:25
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like it's it's kind of a value add to
00:26:27
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►
use a business term I'm sorry it's kind
00:26:29
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►
of that for overcast on iOS in general
00:26:31
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rather than like I don't expect to make
00:26:34
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a lot of money on the Apple TV by itself
00:26:35
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but anyway we are running out of time
00:26:38
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this week so we want to keep the show
00:26:39
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nice and short so people can listen to
00:26:40
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it quickly and don't feel overloaded by
00:26:43
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let's wrap it up this week David thank
00:26:47
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I don't know we never done an ending
00:26:48
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before we're gonna have a song so what
00:26:50
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are we gonna do
00:26:51
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just stop probably just stop all right
00:26:53
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thanks thanks for listening whoever's
00:26:55
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listening to this and hopefully we will
00:26:57
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see you again for the next episode yep
00:26:59
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see you under the radar