Under the Radar

Under the Radar 1: Adapting to the Market


00:00:00   we should to be intro didn't work that

00:00:06   it's fine it's alright all right so this

00:00:07   is episode 1 of under the radar I'm

00:00:11   Marco Arment and I'm David Smith you may

00:00:14   know our other podcasts david has been

00:00:16   doing developing perspective for many

00:00:19   years I did build and analyze first now

00:00:21   I do the accidental tech podcast and

00:00:23   top-4 and this is going to be a show

00:00:26   about development basically it's kind of

00:00:29   like the the the sequel the combination

00:00:32   of build and analyze with developing

00:00:34   perspective and in the spirit of

00:00:37   developing respective never being longer

00:00:38   than 15 minutes David how long is this

00:00:40   true gonna be never longer than 30

00:00:42   minutes so let's get started let's get

00:00:44   started I think the place to start seems

00:00:46   right now we're recording just after the

00:00:49   Apple TV app store launched and it went

00:00:54   online I think on last Friday and it's

00:00:56   you know it's had it had a the usual

00:00:58   fanfare and the things that go on with

00:01:00   that but neither one of us launched

00:01:02   anything on day one and then for myself

00:01:05   it's the first Apple product I've ever

00:01:06   not been in the store on day one for

00:01:08   which is interesting

00:01:10   yeah I'm the same way I I think I mean I

00:01:14   was there for the watch and the Apple TV

00:01:17   and I even I even got one of the early

00:01:20   access developer units because I thought

00:01:22   I might use it and it just literally sat

00:01:25   on my desk and I was I was so busy doing

00:01:26   other things because I was doing I was

00:01:29   working on overcast and trying to get

00:01:31   the 2.0 update out the door and that

00:01:34   kind of precluded this because if I'm

00:01:35   gonna make an Apple TV app it has to be

00:01:37   all about streaming because local

00:01:39   storage with the Apple TV is so limited

00:01:40   and I didn't have the streaming engine

00:01:43   done yet so I worked on the iPhone app

00:01:46   first and I've been I've been doing bug

00:01:47   fixes on that since and I just I have

00:01:49   literally not even opened like an Xcode

00:01:52   project with the TV I've no I haven't

00:01:54   even seen the TV simulator I have not

00:01:56   written a single line of TV code yet

00:01:58   have you yeah I I got a I got a

00:02:01   developer kit as well and I wrote a

00:02:04   version of Padre angler my podcast

00:02:07   client for the Apple TV and it works and

00:02:11   it plays I didn't

00:02:13   spend the time and energy to get it

00:02:15   ready for day one though but it's like

00:02:17   it's an interesting developer platform

00:02:18   because it is essentially iOS just - a

00:02:21   bunch of stuff like there's a couple of

00:02:23   new things but essentially it's just i

00:02:25   OS UI kids with a different input

00:02:28   mechanism rather than obviously being

00:02:30   touch based it's remote control based

00:02:33   but I used it and is like it's it's fine

00:02:35   and easy the thing that ultimately I

00:02:37   think slowed me down though is I just

00:02:40   became like there's just so much else to

00:02:42   do and so many other things that like if

00:02:46   I'm trying to be on every Apple platform

00:02:48   as a one-man shop it's essentially

00:02:49   impossible now and so I looked at the

00:02:51   Apple TV and I'm like it's gonna be a

00:02:53   long time before there's a big market

00:02:54   there and so I just didn't prioritize it

00:02:58   yeah and you know and I feel like you

00:03:00   know we're coming at this from from two

00:03:02   different viewpoints here you know I'm I

00:03:04   tend to work on a very small

00:03:06   I tend to work on usually one app for a

00:03:08   span of years I very rarely have

00:03:10   additional apps I'm not very good at

00:03:13   splitting my time between multiple apps

00:03:14   I pretty much just do one thing and I

00:03:17   try to make that one app big and

00:03:18   complicated and appeal to a ton of

00:03:20   people in order to to keep it going

00:03:22   whereas the background you come from is

00:03:25   is I think much more interesting

00:03:27   honestly because you know when people

00:03:30   and this is one of the reasons I wanted

00:03:31   to do the show with you and one of the

00:03:33   reasons I wanted to call it under the

00:03:34   radar because when people do when people

00:03:37   think about Apple developers they tend

00:03:39   to think about the handful of well-known

00:03:42   ones who make mass consumer apps that

00:03:46   you may have heard of so apps like tweet

00:03:47   bot or net newswire and or you know the

00:03:50   apps from panic that that you know a lot

00:03:51   of developers have heard of or use or

00:03:53   wowed by and there's this massive number

00:03:56   of developers who we don't usually hear

00:04:00   about in in the circle of like Apple

00:04:02   enthusiasts and tech bloggers and stuff

00:04:04   and I think you are a very very good

00:04:06   example of of this massive market and

00:04:09   and I think you you do it better than

00:04:11   most people would do it and so what you

00:04:14   do is not like the high profile you know

00:04:19   a high attention mac blogger long term

00:04:24   ecosystem kind of thing

00:04:27   you do something way more pragmatic and

00:04:30   so can you maybe you just go into that

00:04:32   briefly for anyone who doesn't know you

00:04:34   yet from who's listening to this for

00:04:35   some reason can you go into like what

00:04:38   exactly you do and and how you got there

00:04:40   so I yeah so I've been an iOS developer

00:04:43   essentially since the AppStore started

00:04:45   about seven and a bit years ago I didn't

00:04:47   quite make the day one of the AppStore

00:04:50   mostly because of like business approval

00:04:52   stuff but I've been developing ever

00:04:55   since then and since then I've launched

00:04:57   I think I recently worked this out to

00:05:00   something like fifty-two unique app

00:05:02   concepts in the last seven years so it

00:05:05   works out to be about once every one

00:05:07   every two months or so it hasn't been

00:05:09   exactly that even if a pace but that's

00:05:11   roughly the average and but I've been

00:05:15   making a good steady comfortable living

00:05:17   from it for about six-and-a-half of

00:05:19   those seven years and so I I have lots

00:05:22   of different products in a lot of

00:05:24   different areas my tend to like at this

00:05:27   point I have probably five or six that

00:05:29   are like my main income makers and they

00:05:32   each the biggest one of them only makes

00:05:35   up a third of my income so it's a very

00:05:36   diversified type of thing and that's my

00:05:39   the approach that I found that works

00:05:40   well for me is to make lots of small

00:05:44   bets and see which one pays off in the

00:05:47   store rather than trying to take the

00:05:49   approach like with overcast if I

00:05:51   remember right it's like you spend

00:05:52   eighteen months working on it YUM as

00:05:54   like a big major focus and like for me

00:05:57   the longest I've ever spent in a product

00:05:58   before I launched it is probably four

00:06:01   weeks or something along those lines and

00:06:03   so it's a very different kind of a focus

00:06:05   where I'll put something together I'll

00:06:07   put it out in the store I try and make

00:06:08   it like good in quality but very

00:06:11   straightforward and you know see what

00:06:14   happens and that approach means that I

00:06:17   end up now with a lots of different

00:06:18   products doing a lot of different things

00:06:20   and you know I'm as if it's you know I

00:06:22   have the benefit of diversity in terms

00:06:24   of stability but the difficulty in terms

00:06:27   of keeping up with things when I have

00:06:28   such a wide sort of portfolio to manage

00:06:32   and one thing I like about the way you

00:06:35   work as well is that you challenged

00:06:38   assumptions that

00:06:40   any of us in like the the other half of

00:06:43   this community don't challenge like you

00:06:46   will like you you make your income in

00:06:48   part from I add I don't know anybody

00:06:50   else I'm I don't think I have any other

00:06:52   developer friends who have a meaningful

00:06:54   presence with using I ads and and you do

00:06:57   and you will challenge assumptions based

00:07:00   on things like monetization support app

00:07:02   concepts I'll design like all sorts of

00:07:05   stuff that that you challenge and and I

00:07:07   think you benefit from that because you

00:07:10   while everyone else's is locked into

00:07:13   this one way of thinking and trying to

00:07:15   shape the App Store into like trying to

00:07:19   like you know educate consumers into the

00:07:22   way they think the App Store should be

00:07:23   you are out there actually adapting and

00:07:26   and thriving and what the App Store

00:07:28   actually is yeah I mean I I think I try

00:07:31   and think of when I look at the App

00:07:34   Store think is a business in general

00:07:35   like I can't change my customers all I

00:07:41   can do is react to them for them for the

00:07:43   most part like I like using things like

00:07:46   people who should want to pay for

00:07:48   software as like a statement it doesn't

00:07:50   make any sense to me like people are

00:07:52   going to want to do whatever they want

00:07:54   to do and like my job as a developer as

00:07:56   a businessman is to look at the market

00:07:58   that I'm I want to work in and find ways

00:08:01   to adapt my business to it and I don't

00:08:04   just use I adore advertising like I make

00:08:06   the majority of my income from

00:08:07   advertising and I add and that's been in

00:08:11   somebody's been far more stable than any

00:08:13   of the more paid or subscription or

00:08:15   patronage or all the other things that I

00:08:16   have like the most stable income I get

00:08:19   is from advertising and I love it

00:08:22   because advertising is great because it

00:08:23   I've it the likely Adelines developer

00:08:26   and customer like goals like my goal is

00:08:29   to get them using the app as much as I

00:08:30   can because the more they use it the

00:08:32   more advertising income I make and from

00:08:34   you know if they're using the app a lot

00:08:36   that means they like it and so for me it

00:08:37   was a no-brainer to get started but it

00:08:39   definitely is I know what you mean like

00:08:40   it's it's a bit counter to I think a lot

00:08:42   of the it's not necessary

00:08:45   pretentiousness but there's a there's a

00:08:46   definitely that air of like like you

00:08:49   want Apple you want to sell an Apple

00:08:51   like product in the App Store

00:08:53   but that doesn't necessarily work

00:08:55   because apple doesn't even sell apple

00:08:58   like products in the App Store

00:09:00   yeah and I think this was all like I

00:09:02   think this was all rooted in the the

00:09:05   community of like kind of like nice

00:09:08   Kraft Mac independent developers that

00:09:11   that has existed for quite some time on

00:09:12   the Mac before iOS and everything became

00:09:14   really so big you know people like panic

00:09:17   or delicious monster you know people

00:09:19   like that

00:09:19   brent simmons dave wantanabe like

00:09:22   there's this crowd of like kind of old

00:09:24   school the old guard who have been

00:09:26   around for a while you know omni group

00:09:27   is a big one who've been very successful

00:09:29   at this and and many of them continue to

00:09:31   be very successful at this but there was

00:09:33   this idea for so long that many people

00:09:35   still hold that that would translate

00:09:37   into iOS and that also any developer who

00:09:42   would be able to program iOS apps would

00:09:44   kind of think that they deserved that

00:09:46   same level of success if they just put a

00:09:49   lit there at all or if they put you know

00:09:53   a lot of work into something and and

00:09:55   there's many problems with this that are

00:09:56   way too long to discuss in a 30 minute

00:09:58   podcast one of which is that that the

00:10:01   amount of work you put into something

00:10:02   does not correlate to the value that the

00:10:04   market will place on it or the amount of

00:10:06   money you can make from it but I think

00:10:09   it's productive to challenge this notion

00:10:12   of like well you know is this really the

00:10:14   way the world should work and and

00:10:17   regardless of whether I think it should

00:10:19   work this way if this is not the way the

00:10:22   world works like in practice

00:10:23   what what can I do as a developer to to

00:10:27   succeed in this market and sitting

00:10:29   around waiting for the market to change

00:10:31   to benefit you is probably not very

00:10:34   productive because that's just unlikely

00:10:36   to happen yeah and the interesting thing

00:10:38   I was wondering what you think about

00:10:40   this cuz I'm seeing the the spread of

00:10:43   the of your app career in the App Store

00:10:44   like he's starting an instant paper

00:10:46   which was paid upfront $10 if I remember

00:10:48   right yeah the whole first year it was

00:10:50   10 bucks and I dropped at the 5 minute

00:10:51   and then it's like following the

00:10:53   progression then I think you know your

00:10:54   income started to shift in some ways

00:10:56   more to subscription and in-app purchase

00:10:59   and then switching entirely to overcast

00:11:04   where it became it was you know free

00:11:05   with in-app purchase

00:11:07   four features and then now it's entirely

00:11:09   free with like patronage support mm-hmm

00:11:13   it's you've done you've essentially

00:11:15   followed the trajectory of the App Store

00:11:18   in that way right you're starting with

00:11:20   like the the old school kind of well

00:11:23   it's it's premium software I should

00:11:25   charge a lot of money to it's still good

00:11:27   software but the way you pay for it is

00:11:29   completely different right and and most

00:11:32   of that has again just been because I am

00:11:35   like I'm not like thinking I'm like you

00:11:37   know treading new ground and being an

00:11:39   explorer no I'm usually coming to these

00:11:41   to these changes late actually like I

00:11:43   like instapaper holding the price at $10

00:11:45   for the whole first year was a mistake

00:11:47   when I dropped at the fives

00:11:49   sales went up considerably and then you

00:11:51   know later on it dropped to three I

00:11:52   think I held it for a while three or

00:11:54   four and then you know in sales were

00:11:56   pretty good then I started experimenting

00:11:57   and then shifting to subscription that

00:12:01   that ended up making way more money than

00:12:03   I thought it would and doing very well

00:12:05   and then with overcast coming out at

00:12:06   free with in-app purchase and now with

00:12:10   patron eggs like those have all done

00:12:12   better than I expected them to and you

00:12:14   know it this is all about just adapting

00:12:16   to what the market is many people blame

00:12:18   the market on on you know Apple not

00:12:22   implementing upgrade pricing or the App

00:12:25   Store not having good enough discovery

00:12:27   or search and and all of those things

00:12:29   are valid complaints but they're not the

00:12:31   biggest problem the biggest problem is

00:12:33   there's just a huge oversupply of

00:12:36   developers and apps who are who are all

00:12:39   trying to compete for the same dollars

00:12:40   in the same roles in the same time and

00:12:42   attention and so you know back in the

00:12:44   olden days when you'd have like panic

00:12:46   and omni selling mac apps for 50 bucks

00:12:49   that worked in part because of what they

00:12:52   were and what people use max for and who

00:12:54   was buying max but also that worked in

00:12:56   part because there just weren't that

00:12:58   many developers doing it if you would

00:13:00   have had 10,000 developers trying to

00:13:02   make the same handful of nice consumer

00:13:05   high-profile mac apps you would have had

00:13:07   the exact same problem back then

00:13:09   it isn't that the market has has like

00:13:12   gotten stupider or cheaper or anything

00:13:14   like that it's that this is now the mass

00:13:17   market of what developers do it wasn't

00:13:19   you know back in 2006

00:13:21   most developers weren't working on mac

00:13:23   apps now most developers are working on

00:13:26   iOS and web apps and a span I think it's

00:13:28   I think the shift from web to iOS apps

00:13:30   is really pretty pretty significant and

00:13:33   so if you think about just that's what

00:13:35   so many developers are working on of

00:13:37   course was going to be a massive

00:13:39   oversupply and of course there's going

00:13:41   to be tons of competition and a race to

00:13:43   the bottom and pricing and that's not

00:13:45   because apples doing something wrong you

00:13:48   know Apple is not helping in certain

00:13:49   ways but they're not the cause of this

00:13:51   problem and you know again pragmatically

00:13:53   it is it is useful to think of yourself

00:13:56   not as somebody who all you need to do

00:13:59   is is ship a nicely designed polished

00:14:02   app and money will start flowing in but

00:14:05   as somebody who has to really fight like

00:14:08   really like work hard and fight hard and

00:14:11   be lean to try to attract any kind of

00:14:14   attention and any kind of money from

00:14:16   what is a very crowded hyper competitive

00:14:19   market and I think it's also that the

00:14:21   biggest trap that I know I struggled

00:14:23   with for years was untwist this over

00:14:26   this feeling of over valuing my own work

00:14:28   that if I spent a long time working on

00:14:31   something that everybody should then

00:14:33   sort of oh it should it somehow

00:14:36   intrinsically that makes it more

00:14:37   valuable to people right that they look

00:14:39   at something it's like whereas when like

00:14:42   when people are going to part with money

00:14:43   in whatever form that is like whether

00:14:45   that's right or I guess part with

00:14:46   something like their attention their

00:14:48   money their it they're exchanging

00:14:51   something for that like there they need

00:14:53   to be feel like they're getting

00:14:54   something in return and the funny thing

00:14:58   is I think a lot of people think that

00:15:00   software intrinsically should feel

00:15:02   valuable like as their like the classic

00:15:04   that oh it's it's people will spend five

00:15:06   dollars on a latte but they won't spend

00:15:07   five dollars on my app and it's like

00:15:10   well maybe they actually want the latte

00:15:12   more than they want your app like your

00:15:13   app may not actually be that that

00:15:15   valuable to them and that's why they're

00:15:17   they don't want to spend that money on

00:15:18   it's like you have to be able to wrap

00:15:19   your arms around what they're actually

00:15:21   buying with that like is it

00:15:23   entertainment is it productivity is it

00:15:27   amusement is it

00:15:29   are they exchanging goodwill for money

00:15:30   like things like when you start to get

00:15:32   into like I know I've

00:15:34   and an app with the tip jar in it or you

00:15:36   have patronage and overcast now like the

00:15:38   uric sense they are cure providing a

00:15:39   mechanism for people to exchange

00:15:40   goodwill for money is really what your

00:15:43   have what you're doing there and unless

00:15:45   you're able to really wrap your arms

00:15:47   around that it's hard to really like be

00:15:48   okay with saying like that's okay like I

00:15:50   do advertising because for a lot of my

00:15:52   apps like the app itself isn't

00:15:54   particularly valuable to the person it's

00:15:56   useful but it's not necessarily valuable

00:15:58   in a way that for a lot of people they

00:16:00   want to play we want to put money into

00:16:01   it directly once they used to once they

00:16:04   use it for a while and like it they are

00:16:08   willing to piss spend money but they're

00:16:09   not spending money for the functionality

00:16:11   they're spending money to be able to

00:16:12   express the goodwill they have towards

00:16:14   me for the benefit I've given them but

00:16:16   that's different than it being

00:16:19   intrinsically valuable to them because

00:16:20   when they started they didn't see it as

00:16:22   valuable they wanted it to be free and

00:16:23   if it wasn't free I don't think like

00:16:25   I've you know my pedometer a pedometer

00:16:27   plus plus wouldn't have sold at all or

00:16:29   at least in that not in large quantity

00:16:30   that it has you know to this point yeah

00:16:33   you know even as a consumer of apps now

00:16:35   I find myself even as somebody who has

00:16:37   been a proponent of paid apps for so

00:16:38   long and sold one for so long when I

00:16:41   search for something in the App Store

00:16:43   and I see the search results list you

00:16:45   know if I need if I needed something

00:16:46   that I'm not looking for a specific name

00:16:48   where I'm just looking for a specific

00:16:49   type of app so a pedometer or a step

00:16:51   count or whatever you know if I search

00:16:53   the App Store and the first 20 entries

00:16:56   in the search are all free and number

00:16:59   twenty one is four bucks that one

00:17:02   doesn't stand a chance like that's just

00:17:04   and that's just the reality of how

00:17:05   people search the App Store and and it's

00:17:08   it's very important that you know as you

00:17:09   said like to recognize that and and you

00:17:13   know to recognize that not every app

00:17:15   that Avery that every developer makes is

00:17:18   going to be worth a non-trivial number

00:17:21   of customers spending $2 on it or

00:17:23   whatever you know like I mean I've seen

00:17:25   so many apps that do things that I don't

00:17:28   really need you know like like so many

00:17:31   apps that are things like coffee timers

00:17:32   well you know if a coffee timer is

00:17:35   really good and it's free I might use it

00:17:37   or I can just use the built-in timer on

00:17:41   the device that's not as good but it

00:17:43   works and I think a lot of people go

00:17:45   through a similar kind of thought

00:17:46   process of you know if you if

00:17:48   it's such a different barrier than than

00:17:50   any price and and if you're if you're

00:17:53   looking at an app the alternative isn't

00:17:55   just every other app that's in the store

00:17:57   that does that same thing

00:17:58   the alternative is also just

00:18:00   non-consumption it's not buying the app

00:18:02   at all not buying any app and just going

00:18:05   without that role in your life and as we

00:18:07   get more and more and more apps in the

00:18:10   store which is only you know that's been

00:18:12   going on forever now as we get more more

00:18:14   apps in the store and more and more

00:18:15   demands for people's attention and more

00:18:17   more alternatives that they can do like

00:18:19   if they don't download your app they can

00:18:20   go check Twitter for a few minutes or

00:18:22   play a game and as we get more and more

00:18:25   of those things more more competition

00:18:26   for everything non consumption is also a

00:18:30   big problem and so anything you can do

00:18:31   to to address non-consumption to address

00:18:34   people just bailing out and abandoning

00:18:36   this this search that or this idea they

00:18:37   might have had that this thing they

00:18:38   wanted to do and going free is a huge

00:18:41   hit against that like if you can remove

00:18:43   that barrier of price upfront then it's

00:18:46   so much easier for people to say you

00:18:48   know what yeah I'll give it a try and

00:18:50   it's then I guess the reality is that's

00:18:52   how I think we've both been able to

00:18:54   continue in in the App Store at this

00:18:57   point and we've been doing it for a long

00:18:58   time who is I ever anecdotally it seems

00:19:02   like fewer and fewer smaller or lot more

00:19:06   independent companies and where people

00:19:08   are able to do it and I do you think a

00:19:10   lot of it is that it's a lack of

00:19:11   pragmatism that a lack of just like what

00:19:14   is it going to take to make a living in

00:19:17   this market and if you ultimately don't

00:19:18   like the answer to that if you're in

00:19:19   your mind you'll you only want to sell

00:19:21   software in like a premium App Store

00:19:23   it's like ok well you might need to do

00:19:25   something else then because that may not

00:19:27   exist

00:19:28   yeah and you need to be in the right

00:19:29   place at the right time if you want that

00:19:30   you know if if if you will not budge in

00:19:32   that like so right now so getting back

00:19:34   for a second to the Apple TV which is

00:19:35   getting out now the Apple TV app store

00:19:38   has almost nothing in it it is very very

00:19:40   sparse and if you are looking for

00:19:43   something like like so I got this Apple

00:19:45   TV I plugged it in set it up and I went

00:19:48   right to the App Store to see hey what

00:19:49   can I get here and I thought a couple of

00:19:51   basic you know Netflix HBO now whatever

00:19:54   and then okay let me try some games I

00:19:56   got this cool thing I'm in the mood of

00:19:57   trying new things let me go to the App

00:19:59   Store and try some games and I went and

00:20:01   I

00:20:02   I don't know ten bucks maybe total on a

00:20:04   couple of games and I didn't even think

00:20:06   about it because I'm in this buying mood

00:20:08   because I just got this new device it's

00:20:09   brand new has me excited and also

00:20:11   there's hardly anything there to buy and

00:20:14   of the very small number of games there

00:20:16   were there to buy almost all of them I

00:20:19   think we're paid or at least many of

00:20:20   them were so I had no problem spending

00:20:23   that money because of the context of

00:20:26   this isn't a tremendous App Store filled

00:20:28   with millions of apps most of which are

00:20:30   free this is a very very small App Store

00:20:33   that right now that has only very few

00:20:36   apps on it and you know that's that's

00:20:38   that's the reason I was able to charge

00:20:39   10 bucks for Instapaper in 2008 you know

00:20:41   but but then I couldn't in 2009 because

00:20:43   the after was too full that's gonna

00:20:45   happen with the Apple TV also you know

00:20:47   if this thing takes off if this succeeds

00:20:48   and and it looks like it's probably

00:20:50   going to I mean it might take a few

00:20:52   years before it has like tons and tons

00:20:53   of Units out there but it's probably

00:20:55   going to succeed and if that happens or

00:20:58   as that happens there the App Store is

00:21:01   gonna be way more crowded than it is now

00:21:03   and it is going to get harder and harder

00:21:05   to sell games and apps for the Apple TV

00:21:07   for money once there is competition for

00:21:10   for that same role in people's lives and

00:21:12   so if you if you were gonna be the kind

00:21:14   of person who wanted to sell a premium

00:21:16   app for money

00:21:17   you just had a window to do that on the

00:21:20   Apple TV almost no one has taken up that

00:21:22   out that opportunity but you just had

00:21:24   that opportunity right now and it won't

00:21:26   come again on the Apple TV probably ever

00:21:28   you know at this like this product and

00:21:30   that has now done that and it probably

00:21:32   won't come again yeah and so you have to

00:21:34   wait till the next big wave and you have

00:21:36   to be in one of those positions where if

00:21:38   you're not going to to be in a if you're

00:21:41   not gonna be the kind of person who can

00:21:42   thrive in an ultra competitive

00:21:43   low-priced environment like the web has

00:21:46   pretty much always been and like the iOS

00:21:49   App Store is now then you have to follow

00:21:52   the trend and be early to things be

00:21:54   there on day one when new things happen

00:21:56   be able to be able to figure out and

00:21:57   guess which new things will take off

00:21:59   which is a hugely risky process that you

00:22:01   will often get wrong and it will often

00:22:03   go completely to waste and and be there

00:22:06   in those less competitive markets but

00:22:08   then as soon as the market becomes more

00:22:09   competitive you have to either adapt or

00:22:11   leave yeah and I think the difficulty

00:22:13   honestly with Apple TV and why I well I

00:22:15   think I agree

00:22:15   like the best time to sold big software

00:22:18   would have been like if being there on

00:22:20   day one my suspicion is the narrowness

00:22:22   of the window where there's going to

00:22:24   have that kind of general rush in people

00:22:27   being okay with buying things is narrow

00:22:29   enough that I'm very skeptical if it

00:22:32   would actually be financially successful

00:22:34   for most people that if they had you

00:22:38   know spend a lot of time made it a nice

00:22:39   big premium game or something like that

00:22:41   especially designed specifically for the

00:22:44   Apple TV the window in which they were

00:22:46   going to be able to to sell into a kind

00:22:48   of a premium group of people like people

00:22:50   who obviously were excited enough about

00:22:52   the product to get on day one they're

00:22:54   very you know they've just spent a red

00:22:57   for in Apple terms a relatively small

00:22:59   amount of money for it you know it's a

00:23:01   they're not nearly as expensive as a lot

00:23:03   of the other other products that you

00:23:04   know I can iPhone $700 or something

00:23:06   whereas this is a hundred and something

00:23:07   or two hundred and so that window is

00:23:11   going to be very narrow and so if you

00:23:13   are worried if your app requires that

00:23:16   you then have big sis that you know big

00:23:19   sustained sales over the next few months

00:23:21   my suspicion is that's going to be a

00:23:24   losing proposition and so that's

00:23:27   interesting and you know it's the Apple

00:23:30   TV I think will be a nice sort of much

00:23:32   ways like many ways like the watch it's

00:23:34   just an add-on to the main product that

00:23:37   Apple sells like which is the iPhone

00:23:39   it's like the iPad in many ways the idea

00:23:41   to watch now the Apple TV these are all

00:23:43   just add-ons to get di OS ecosystem that

00:23:46   exists for the iPhone yeah and and you

00:23:49   know and I think the the value that you

00:23:52   can get out of being there yeah I think

00:23:54   you make a very good point about about

00:23:55   that window being fairly narrow I think

00:23:57   how narrow it is depends on how easy it

00:24:01   is to develop for it and how many people

00:24:03   realize how quickly they need to be

00:24:06   developing for do they want to be

00:24:07   developing for it so with the iPhone

00:24:09   that was very very quick really because

00:24:11   the iPhone already had a massive

00:24:13   installed base there was tons of pent

00:24:15   demand to develop for it and people like

00:24:16   not the doors down to get there most

00:24:18   platforms don't work that way the watch

00:24:21   I think has has kind of fizzled out on

00:24:23   the watch I think is kind of at a

00:24:25   standstill right now I don't know of any

00:24:26   really interesting stuff that's happened

00:24:28   on the watch

00:24:29   last month say you know it seems like

00:24:31   not a lot is going on there and we'll

00:24:33   talk about that in future episodes I'm

00:24:35   sure yeah and the TV is now out but it's

00:24:38   starting from an installed base of zero

00:24:39   for a product that people are excited

00:24:42   about but not so excited that they're

00:24:43   gonna go out and like raid all the

00:24:45   stores and deplete all the stock on day

00:24:46   one so it's gonna that's gonna have a

00:24:49   slower build-up and so if that buildup

00:24:51   is slower also on the developer supply

00:24:53   side where fewer developers are jumping

00:24:55   in so soon so quickly then I think you

00:24:57   do have a wider window like I would say

00:25:00   the biggest sales day for Apple TV apps

00:25:02   this year is gonna be the day after

00:25:04   Christmas and if you are there I think

00:25:06   you can still sell a nice $10 game the

00:25:10   day after christmas in in big volumes

00:25:11   this year but probably not next year

00:25:14   let's see yeah I would say I'm more on

00:25:17   the skeptical side of that but I think

00:25:18   you're right insofar as that's a

00:25:20   reasonable it's going to this the next

00:25:24   few months will be interesting for it

00:25:26   and I think the Apple TV

00:25:27   I will ultimately develop for it though

00:25:30   and which is probably a good place to

00:25:31   wrap up is to say like I expect to make

00:25:33   make apps for it mostly because having a

00:25:36   nicely rich

00:25:38   it's a checkbox that I can check for

00:25:41   form up from some of my applications to

00:25:43   say like could make them just that

00:25:44   little bit more appealing to somebody if

00:25:46   someone was on the fence about

00:25:47   downloading my app and they're like oh

00:25:48   it'll work for the Apple TV awesome then

00:25:51   it's like that little little thing but

00:25:53   it's not a priority for me insofar as I

00:25:55   don't think it's gonna ever be a primary

00:25:57   driver for my business it's like same as

00:25:59   the watch I make watch apps for a lot of

00:26:01   my apps mostly just so that it's like if

00:26:02   someone if for the narrow group of

00:26:04   people for that's all they needed to go

00:26:06   over the edge then it was worthwhile for

00:26:08   me but in and of itself it's probably

00:26:10   not yeah and that that could be a whole

00:26:12   beside right there

00:26:12   and I I totally agree with everything

00:26:15   you said that I'm also I expect to to

00:26:18   launch Xcode for the first time to make

00:26:19   an Apple TV app probably this week I'd

00:26:21   like to see how easy it is to get

00:26:23   overcast or run on it but again it's

00:26:25   like it's it's kind of a value add to

00:26:27   use a business term I'm sorry it's kind

00:26:29   of that for overcast on iOS in general

00:26:31   rather than like I don't expect to make

00:26:34   a lot of money on the Apple TV by itself

00:26:35   but anyway we are running out of time

00:26:38   this week so we want to keep the show

00:26:39   nice and short so people can listen to

00:26:40   it quickly and don't feel overloaded by

00:26:42   it so

00:26:43   let's wrap it up this week David thank

00:26:46   you I guess

00:26:47   I don't know we never done an ending

00:26:48   before we're gonna have a song so what

00:26:50   are we gonna do

00:26:51   just stop probably just stop all right

00:26:53   thanks thanks for listening whoever's

00:26:55   listening to this and hopefully we will

00:26:57   see you again for the next episode yep

00:26:59   see you under the radar