78: Live From Build 2014
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Hey gang, it's your pal John Gruber here kind of a curveball show this week. I was out in San Francisco
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For of all things Microsoft's build developer conference more or less. It's Microsoft's version of WWDC
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And we talked about that on the show
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But one of the things that that I got offered Microsoft offered to give me a room in the conference
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Thursday afternoon to do a live audience episode of the talk show and it kind of came together
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Not quite last minute, but but close and I took it as an opportunity to have a new guest because I met
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You know some people from the other side of the fence who cover Microsoft more than Apple and so Ed bot whose
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Coverage of Microsoft. I've been following for a long time many years big fan of his Twitter account to
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Never met him in person before though. So took the opportunity to invite him on the show. That's what you're going to hear
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So this was recorded in
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Moscone West the people in the audience were all attendees of the build developer conference. I think it came off. Okay, you'll hear from me
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I'm I didn't do any sponsor reads during the live event. So I'm recording those in post which is unusual
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I usually I just do them right in the middle of the show, but it didn't seem right with a live audience
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So I'll pop back in
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Probably three more times with interesting information from this shows great sponsors and enjoy the show. I think it came off pretty well
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I think I had a good time. Oh, yeah before we start one more thing
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We're not sure what happened. I don't know what happened
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But the audio file that we got from Microsoft cut it clipped a few minutes from the end of the show
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I think it was like exactly 74 minutes
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So our best guess is that maybe they were recording it right to a CD and there's a 74 minute time limit
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So not much got cut off, the show didn't go much longer than that.
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But I actually, you know, at the actual event I did like a nice thank you to everybody who showed up,
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and to Ed, and it wrapped up rather neatly.
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Whereas what you're going to hear here ends a bit abruptly.
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But the good thing is it kind of works out because it ends in a very Microsoftian way.
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Easily, number one question that I've been asked this week is, "Why are you here?"
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And it's very easy, I'm here for the free Xbox.
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- Aren't we all?
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- Everybody get their free Xbox?
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(audience cheers)
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So, says the guy from Microsoft.
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So I'm here, this is the talk show, this is my podcast.
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I'm John Gruber.
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I'm assuming the people who are here
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are probably familiar with me.
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My guest this week is Ed Bott.
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- Thank you for joining me.
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- It's been a long time.
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How long have you been covering Microsoft as a journalist?
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- Full time since 1992.
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- Right, as long as I've been following tech,
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your byline and stuff on Microsoft is in my mind.
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I don't remember when you weren't.
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- I don't either.
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- It is very different than an Apple conference.
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I'm a foreigner here.
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I go to WWDC just about every year.
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This is my first Microsoft developer conference
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that I've attended.
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Very interesting.
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Similar in certain fundamental ways, but very different.
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I can't think of a better obvious answer is that
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everybody who came to this conference with 5,000 attendees
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on day one was told, "Hey, guess what?
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"You're getting an Xbox One."
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Is that what it's called, the Xbox One?
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- Xbox One, that's it.
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which was, I think, a very popular move.
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At Apple conferences, one time, like 11 years ago,
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they gave away a mouse.
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(audience laughing)
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This year they had a broken mouse,
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was featured in one of the demos that they were doing.
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It was kind of, it was supposed to be
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a typical enterprise app that,
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that someone in the audience might develop
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for their company.
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And so they used one of the great Microsoft fake company
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names, Fabrikam.
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And they built a mobile app.
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And so he was able to report that he was giving a keynote
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address and his mouse was broken.
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He could take a picture of the mouse
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and then send that to facilities,
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and facilities could bring him a new mouse.
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And the interesting thing about that app
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was that they demonstrated it on an iPhone.
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No, that's very true.
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It's strange times, right?
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Very weird times.
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I've had several people this week remind me
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of that scene from Ghostbusters, dogs and cats living together,
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mass hysteria.
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And I think they expect fireworks here.
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And I think, in a way, they're going
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disappointed because what we really have here is two guys who understand their respective worlds,
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and those worlds have been far apart for a long time. And there was this sort of Venn diagram
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where you had this little slice in the middle, and now those worlds are overlapping significantly
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more than they ever have. Yeah, I mean, I have to acknowledge it because everybody, I mean,
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I can't not acknowledge it, that I was actually
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featured in the keynote today wearing my other hat,
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not the daring fireball hat, but Q branch,
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the software company I work at with my colleagues,
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Brent and Dave, iPhone only right now,
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but we're using Azure, we've announced today,
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for our backend sync, and they were nice enough
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to ask us if we would do a little promotional video
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and talk about it and say why.
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And you know, an awful lot of, what, holy shit.
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Right, I watched the video, I didn't get to see
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the video before, I was in the keynote and I watched
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the video, I was like, okay, I didn't look too big.
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- Excellent production values.
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- Super nice, very nice.
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And the message was exactly the truth.
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It wasn't like, here's the lines to give it,
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they asked questions and Brent and I gave honest answers
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and that's what they put in the video.
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So that was great.
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And I thought, I have got to check Twitter.
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- I believe the first tweet that I saw
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after that video ran was somebody who said,
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"Hell froze over."
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- I saw that one, that was good.
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That was very good.
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And there were an awful lot of them with pictures too,
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which was very weird for me.
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Like I am not used to browsing my Twitter replies
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and seeing my picture over and over again.
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Very unusual for me.
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But I also think fundamentally, like you said,
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with Venn diagram with ever increasing overlap
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between the Microsoft and Apple worlds is
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that it's the truth.
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There's an honesty to what I'm hearing from Microsoft,
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not just with Azure, but a lot of things,
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that when they say, hey, it's a multi-device,
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multi-platform world, that they mean it.
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there's like an acceptance that it's not going to be
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95% of all computing devices running Windows anymore.
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That's over.
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And how does Microsoft stay relevant and successful
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and grow in that world?
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- Well one way is by spending, I think it's $3.2 billion
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in CapEx this year to build out Azure.
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And putting basically large chunks of data
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large chunks of the Visual Studio development environment
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into that cloud so that it will run in any browser
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on any device.
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I mean, that kind of expenditure is really
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perfect evidence, money talks.
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- I think that especially with the people who read my stuff
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and are coming from a more interested in Apple perspective,
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I think that Microsoft's efforts in that Azure direction,
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I didn't even know that number, 3.2 billion in CapEx,
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but that's a huge number.
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I mean, there are very few companies in the world
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that even could spend 3.2 billion dollars.
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I mean, that's a really short list,
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'cause it's a massive money.
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- Right, that's one sixth of a WhatsApp.
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(audience laughing)
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- Well the difference there is that Microsoft
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is an established company, is operating in a world
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where their capex expenditures come from actual profits
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from actual revenues and not from
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Facebook stock option funny money.
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- And there's an ROI on that capex too.
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Because you're going to be paying presumably
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for those Azure instances and all that bandwidth
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and stuff, and there's a lot of, you know,
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not just startups, but Fortune 500 companies
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that are using that infrastructure as well.
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I mean, the other thing about Azure,
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when you go, I'm an Azure user myself,
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I have an MSDN subscription,
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so I get like 50 bucks of credit each month,
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and you say, you know, what can you get for 50 bucks?
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The shocking thing is that I can run my website on it,
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And I think that uses like $7 worth of credit
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over the course of a month.
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And I can, just incredible flexibility on it.
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But when you go to the Azure portal
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and you start poking around, you see, okay,
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well I'm gonna create a virtual machine in the cloud now.
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And you look and you say, okay,
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I got all these Windows servers and wait a minute,
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there's like this long list of Linux distros as well
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that I could do.
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so I could do Ubuntu Enterprise and Red Hat
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and OpenSUSE and all these things.
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And yet another example of where,
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if you could get in a time machine
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and go back a decade or so and have someone say,
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yeah, Microsoft, you're going to be selling
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your largest competitor's operating system,
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largest competitor's server operating system
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in a cloud-based service, they'd wrap you up
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and put you away.
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- We ourselves are using Azure in a very non-Windows-y way.
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We're not running Windows operating system,
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we're not using the Windows SQL server.
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We're using it in a very open source Unix-y sort of way.
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- We are running SQL Server.
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We're not running what we're using.
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All right, but I think Brent would agree with me though.
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Brent Simmons, my colleague and the guy who does all the work.
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But it's true, we're not,
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we haven't become Windows developers by adopting Azure.
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We're still totally iOS developers
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and doing this network cloud stuff
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in a very open source, non--
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- Yeah, so you've got databases,
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you've got generic storage that you can configure
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just about any way you want.
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You've got messaging services available to you,
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all sorts of other mobile services
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that are available to you, and none of them are Windows.
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In fact, what's really fascinating and kind of weird for me
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as a guy who has covered Windows for 20 plus years
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is that they changed the name of Azure
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from Windows Azure to Microsoft Azure.
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And that's, on one level that's symbolic,
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but on another much more important level,
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it's a reflection of how both the company
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and the product has changed.
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- Yeah, I completely agree.
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Another thing I definitely noticed,
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and I saw a lot of people commenting on Twitter,
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you and I talked about it pre-show,
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but during the keynote today,
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an awful lot of the demos were running
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on non-Microsoft devices.
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There were iPhones that were being used in demos,
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I saw an iPad and a couple,
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there was a demo,
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Xamarin, am I pronouncing it right?
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- The Xamarin demo was running with
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an IDE running on a MacBook.
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And there's Mac OS X up on the,
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you know, I actually felt at home.
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- With Safari.
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- Right, and Safari, right.
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- It was in Safari.
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Yeah, so, you know, the same thing.
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And I think I tweeted this today as well.
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In a lot of the slides, you know,
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there was clearly a conscious effort
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to be very inclusive about platforms.
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But, you know, so there would of course be
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the entire Microsoft range going from Xbox
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through the various Windows form factors
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and then down to Windows Phone.
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But then there were Android phones and tablets
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and iPads and iPhones, and then Kindle Fire.
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So there was also, at one point they said,
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and we've added notification support to Kindle Fire.
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You talk about coopetition,
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but the fascinating thing is that
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Amazon Web Services and Azure
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could not be more direct competitors.
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They're absolutely direct competitors,
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and yet if you're going to play this,
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we want to be on as many devices
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and as many platforms as possible,
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you can't say, "Well, we don't like that company,
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"so Kindle Fire gets excluded, it's gotta be there."
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And I think there's also something when you go around
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and you talk to the people with the Microsoft name tags here
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there is much less of the
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of the sort of hold your nose factor
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when you're talking about those other platforms,
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well we have to support them.
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I think there's some actual genuine enthusiasm now about,
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it's almost like it's a,
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how many boxes can we tick off
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on the support checklist here?
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- Yeah, I mean obviously no question about it.
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Walking through the hallways here
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and just watching, observing.
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You see very high, higher than anywhere else I've ever seen,
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- It's a percentage of people using Windows phone devices.
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No question about it, it makes sense.
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It's the Build Developer Conference.
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But, I see a lot of people with iPhones.
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And it's weird, and so there's one of these ways
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where you close your eyes for a decade
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and you can miss these sort of tectonic shifts,
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but the Apple community, developers, users, and everything,
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is far more of a technical monoculture today
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than the Microsoft community.
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I'm not even saying it's anything other than inevitable,
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that with the success that Apple's had,
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and the quality of their products,
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but if you go to WWDC,
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and try to find somebody who's not using an iPhone,
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you're gonna have a hard time.
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I mean, you'll find somebody,
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there's somebody with an Android phone,
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because they're there just to write Mac apps or something.
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It's not like nobody has it.
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- And that guy will also be wearing Google Glass.
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- Yeah, exactly.
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- You just know it.
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I saw one guy at WWDC this year with Google Glass.
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- Google Glass and a Galaxy S6 probably.
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- You'll see, I mean, you'll find somebody
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at a 5,000 person conference using everything.
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I took a picture at WWDC this year.
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I saw a guy with a flip phone.
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(audience laughing)
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So I mean, literally, you'll find somebody with--
00:16:30
◼
►
- That was actually the next iPhone
00:16:32
◼
►
very cleverly disguised.
00:16:34
◼
►
They've learned after that whole Gizmodo thing.
00:16:37
◼
►
We gotta make the disguise is better.
00:16:39
◼
►
Nobody's gonna steal that one.
00:16:41
◼
►
(audience laughing)
00:16:42
◼
►
- It was day one and they had announced the new Mac Pro,
00:16:46
◼
►
which is a very pretty machine
00:16:47
◼
►
and it looks very different than everything else.
00:16:49
◼
►
And they had them, of course, behind glass, can't touch,
00:16:52
◼
►
spinning around and everybody was looking at it.
00:16:55
◼
►
And there was this guy taking a picture of it
00:16:57
◼
►
with his flip phone.
00:16:58
◼
►
And I thought, and I'm looking around at the other people
00:17:00
◼
►
and I'm like, this is way more interesting
00:17:02
◼
►
than the Mac Pro.
00:17:03
◼
►
(audience laughing)
00:17:05
◼
►
There's a guy at a developer conference
00:17:06
◼
►
with a flip-flop.
00:17:08
◼
►
- He's like, you know, it's performance art.
00:17:10
◼
►
It had to be.
00:17:11
◼
►
It's like Andy Kaufman has returned
00:17:13
◼
►
and is doing that thing.
00:17:16
◼
►
But you know, so it is true,
00:17:19
◼
►
you know, inclusiveness of platforms and everything,
00:17:23
◼
►
and yet there is still a lot of windows here.
00:17:26
◼
►
- Oh, of course, right.
00:17:27
◼
►
- A whole lot of windows, and a lot of
00:17:33
◼
►
pride and investment in what's happening
00:17:38
◼
►
in those platforms and not just the sort of generic PCs
00:17:44
◼
►
but in some of the more interesting form factors
00:17:47
◼
►
and especially the phones.
00:17:49
◼
►
- Well the other thing too is the developer tools
00:17:54
◼
►
and Microsoft has always had a golden reputation
00:17:58
◼
►
for the quality of their developer tools
00:18:02
◼
►
and in ways that even people like us
00:18:06
◼
►
who've been only really developing for Apple products
00:18:09
◼
►
for decades even, have always known
00:18:11
◼
►
in the back of their heads, boy,
00:18:13
◼
►
their ID, it blows our stuff away,
00:18:17
◼
►
or they're debugging the way that you can hook it up.
00:18:19
◼
►
So it makes sense though that there's so much Windows here
00:18:21
◼
►
because you've gotta be on Windows
00:18:22
◼
►
to be using those developer tools.
00:18:24
◼
►
But they showed some really cool stuff today.
00:18:25
◼
►
I think that caught my eye,
00:18:26
◼
►
and I guess you knew about this 'cause I saw you tweet,
00:18:28
◼
►
but I forget what it's called,
00:18:30
◼
►
but it's the thing where you can go into the,
00:18:32
◼
►
you open a webpage, go into the developer mode,
00:18:35
◼
►
and everybody, you know--
00:18:36
◼
►
- Yeah, it's called browser link.
00:18:37
◼
►
- Right, so you can see the CSS and the HTML behind the page
00:18:41
◼
►
and you can tweak it, and all the major browsers
00:18:44
◼
►
have had this feature, and you can test like a color change,
00:18:46
◼
►
that's what they demoed,
00:18:47
◼
►
and you can change the color of the banner.
00:18:49
◼
►
But with this browser link, it hooks up to the IDE,
00:18:54
◼
►
and it'll actually change the source file
00:18:58
◼
►
as you change it there.
00:19:00
◼
►
- Yeah, so you're-- - With the page!
00:19:00
◼
►
- Yeah, so instead of just changing it on the page
00:19:03
◼
►
and seeing how it looks, it's actually, you know,
00:19:07
◼
►
you could make the change in the IDE
00:19:10
◼
►
and see it reflected instantly in the browser,
00:19:12
◼
►
or you could change it in the browser
00:19:14
◼
►
and see it instantly reflected in the IDE,
00:19:16
◼
►
which is pretty mind-blowing, actually.
00:19:18
◼
►
And, again, in keeping with the sort of ecumenical theme
00:19:23
◼
►
of the whole thing, they demoed that in Chrome.
00:19:26
◼
►
- Yeah, that was, and I thought the same thing.
00:19:28
◼
►
I thought, that's a really cool feature,
00:19:30
◼
►
but you gotta use IE.
00:19:31
◼
►
And then as soon as I had that thought,
00:19:32
◼
►
and they're like, and it works in Chrome.
00:19:34
◼
►
(audience laughing)
00:19:35
◼
►
- Yeah. (laughs)
00:19:36
◼
►
- I was like, so I think the answer to this is gonna be yes,
00:19:38
◼
►
but do you perceive the same sort of sea change
00:19:42
◼
►
in attitude, you know, among the,
00:19:45
◼
►
for about lack of a better word,
00:19:45
◼
►
the rank and file at Microsoft in terms of--
00:19:49
◼
►
- Yeah, I think-- - It's a new Microsoft.
00:19:51
◼
►
- It is a new Microsoft, and unmistakably so.
00:19:54
◼
►
I think what's interesting though is that for outsiders,
00:19:58
◼
►
There's a temptation to look at Microsoft today
00:20:02
◼
►
and think that this change is relatively recent and sudden,
00:20:08
◼
►
and that it's related to things like Ballmer leaving,
00:20:14
◼
►
for example, or the success of Android or something.
00:20:21
◼
►
And actually, one of the interesting things
00:20:26
◼
►
about having covered this for so many years
00:20:29
◼
►
is that a lot of the things that we're seeing today
00:20:32
◼
►
are things that they were talking
00:20:34
◼
►
about at the equivalent of this show five or six years ago.
00:20:40
◼
►
In 2008 and 2009, they were basically
00:20:43
◼
►
describing the world that we saw in yesterday's and today's
00:20:50
◼
►
And there was some skepticism from people about,
00:20:54
◼
►
Are you going to be able to pull this stuff off?
00:20:58
◼
►
And so if I dragged out my notebooks
00:21:02
◼
►
from some of those events, I think you'd see, wow,
00:21:06
◼
►
they did that?
00:21:07
◼
►
They did that?
00:21:09
◼
►
Eh, they did that, and they shouldn't have.
00:21:10
◼
►
And they didn't do that one.
00:21:12
◼
►
But there's a tremendous amount-- back then,
00:21:15
◼
►
they called it three screens in a cloud.
00:21:18
◼
►
And I think they might have gotten
00:21:19
◼
►
the number of screens wrong.
00:21:21
◼
►
I think there's a little more than three.
00:21:24
◼
►
but they basically said, you know, phones and PC/tablets,
00:21:29
◼
►
they didn't think of those as two separate categories,
00:21:33
◼
►
and the TV were all going to be important
00:21:37
◼
►
and they all needed to be connected to services
00:21:40
◼
►
that were capable of running anywhere
00:21:43
◼
►
because they're gathering data from
00:21:46
◼
►
and synchronizing with cloud services.
00:21:48
◼
►
- Now, a word from our sponsors.
00:21:53
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00:23:33
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Now, back to the show.
00:23:36
◼
►
So you think it's fair, you saw, the gist of what I'm hearing there is that you, it's,
00:23:41
◼
►
The casual observer is going to want to draw a direct cause and effect where we've got
00:23:48
◼
►
Steve Ballmer announces his resignation, there's a search, and then 60 days ago or so they
00:23:55
◼
►
said okay, we got our guy, Satya Nadella.
00:23:58
◼
►
And he's the cloud guy.
00:24:01
◼
►
And he's the new CEO and everybody, the board's behind him, Bill Gates is behind him, Steve
00:24:07
◼
►
Steve Ballmer's behind him now.
00:24:08
◼
►
Steve Ballmer's retired, he's not the CEO, and Satya Nadella is, and all of these changes
00:24:14
◼
►
are all going to be attributed to Satya Nadella, new CEO who's changed the company in 60 days.
00:24:21
◼
►
That is sort of how it's going to play.
00:24:23
◼
►
From the outsider's perspective, that's exactly what it looks like.
00:24:27
◼
►
And yet, when you think, you were talking about some Apple-related stuff, about how
00:24:35
◼
►
long it takes to build these things. The iPhone didn't come into existence in 60 days. It
00:24:44
◼
►
took years for it to be developed, years when nobody knew anything about it. And all the
00:24:49
◼
►
things that we're seeing today have pretty much a year, two, three, five years for a
00:24:57
◼
►
lot of this stuff. The Azure stuff, that goes back a decade.
00:25:05
◼
►
It has to because otherwise, I mean,
00:25:06
◼
►
how many data centers does Azure run in?
00:25:09
◼
►
Do we have an answer?
00:25:10
◼
►
- That one I don't know the answer to,
00:25:11
◼
►
but somebody out there can look it up.
00:25:14
◼
►
- So yeah, so you don't build out nine
00:25:17
◼
►
like massive world-class billion dollar data centers
00:25:21
◼
►
you know, in 60 days.
00:25:24
◼
►
- But do you think that's telling though that they did?
00:25:26
◼
►
I mean, I do.
00:25:28
◼
►
I think that it's very telling that they effectively
00:25:30
◼
►
picked the Azure guy to be the CEO of Microsoft.
00:25:34
◼
►
Oh, yeah, I mean, that's the direction that it was going.
00:25:37
◼
►
It was the right choice.
00:25:38
◼
►
And I think it was the right choice to make, too.
00:25:42
◼
►
Because if you brought in an outsider,
00:25:48
◼
►
you've added a random element to it.
00:25:52
◼
►
And you've created-- you basically--
00:25:54
◼
►
then you've created a level of uncertainty.
00:25:58
◼
►
Bringing such in is that, as the CEO says,
00:26:01
◼
►
basically this train is not slowing down.
00:26:06
◼
►
In fact, we might speed up a little bit.
00:26:09
◼
►
- But the name of the game basically is growth.
00:26:11
◼
►
They gotta find somewhere where they're gonna grow.
00:26:13
◼
►
And Azure, that whole area of cloud services
00:26:17
◼
►
is going to grow, clearly.
00:26:19
◼
►
Somebody's gonna, it's like the old saying,
00:26:21
◼
►
if somebody's gonna make money,
00:26:23
◼
►
it might as well be Microsoft.
00:26:25
◼
►
So somebody's gonna, I mean there's no doubt whatsoever,
00:26:28
◼
►
I don't think anybody would disagree
00:26:29
◼
►
no matter how they observe the industry,
00:26:32
◼
►
cloud computing is gonna grow from here forward.
00:26:36
◼
►
So it just seems like the most likely source
00:26:40
◼
►
for Microsoft to have significant growth.
00:26:42
◼
►
- Well, look at Office for iPad.
00:26:45
◼
►
I mean, which is really, when you get right down to it,
00:26:47
◼
►
it's a cloud product.
00:26:49
◼
►
The only way, yes, it's a free app,
00:26:52
◼
►
you can download it on your iPad,
00:26:55
◼
►
and you can view documents,
00:26:57
◼
►
and you can present a presentation
00:26:58
◼
►
that you created somewhere else,
00:27:00
◼
►
and you can save files locally.
00:27:02
◼
►
But the thing that unlocks the real value of those apps,
00:27:07
◼
►
which are lovely apps,
00:27:10
◼
►
and I think they're going to iterate them pretty quickly,
00:27:12
◼
►
that the thing that unlocks their value
00:27:14
◼
►
is a subscription to Office 365,
00:27:18
◼
►
which runs in Azure,
00:27:19
◼
►
on consumer and business sides.
00:27:24
◼
►
- Right, 'cause it's more or less like step one
00:27:27
◼
►
and the whole concept of the iPad Office apps is,
00:27:31
◼
►
how do you get your documents there?
00:27:33
◼
►
And it's clearly, you might be able to find workarounds
00:27:37
◼
►
for other things and you can open an email attachment,
00:27:39
◼
►
but it's clearly designed to use the--
00:27:45
◼
►
- The OneDrive as the way that you're going to--
00:27:47
◼
►
- The product previously known as SkyDrive.
00:27:50
◼
►
What's the deal with that?
00:27:51
◼
►
Why did they change that?
00:27:54
◼
►
Rupert Murdoch is the short answer.
00:27:57
◼
►
The long answer is BSkyB,
00:28:00
◼
►
the British television giant,
00:28:03
◼
►
owns the Sky trademark,
00:28:08
◼
►
and they actually have some cloud services of their own.
00:28:11
◼
►
So they sued Microsoft in the UK
00:28:14
◼
►
for trademark infringement,
00:28:16
◼
►
won the first battle,
00:28:18
◼
►
and Microsoft said rather than appealing this
00:28:20
◼
►
and potentially losing more expensively,
00:28:23
◼
►
they signed an agreement to change the name to OneDrive.
00:28:28
◼
►
- It reminds me of what happened to them
00:28:32
◼
►
with the Metro name for the new user interface,
00:28:35
◼
►
where they had this seemingly perfect name
00:28:38
◼
►
for this thing that needed a name,
00:28:40
◼
►
and then some kind of trademark lawyers dot dot dot,
00:28:45
◼
►
you don't want to know,
00:28:46
◼
►
and now it's like the new interface.
00:28:48
◼
►
- Yeah, they haven't been very transparent about that one.
00:28:50
◼
►
and that was a German company, Metro AG, I think,
00:28:54
◼
►
and I think they're sort of like, I don't know,
00:28:59
◼
►
German Walmart or something.
00:29:00
◼
►
They have groceries and computers,
00:29:03
◼
►
and it was one of those they caved.
00:29:07
◼
►
They caved on that one,
00:29:08
◼
►
and ever since they caved on that one,
00:29:11
◼
►
every discussion of apps that are written for Windows 8,
00:29:17
◼
►
for the native environment in Windows 8,
00:29:19
◼
►
and it becomes this awkward thing where you say,
00:29:23
◼
►
well these modern Windows store, oh, Metro apps.
00:29:27
◼
►
- Remember the thing where there was,
00:29:31
◼
►
who owned the trademark to iPhone in 2006?
00:29:35
◼
►
- Cisco. - Cisco, right.
00:29:37
◼
►
They even came out with a product in December 2006,
00:29:41
◼
►
like four weeks before Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone.
00:29:46
◼
►
I remember Gizmodo totally, you know,
00:29:49
◼
►
and that's off to them for doing it,
00:29:50
◼
►
but they're like, here it is, the iPhone.
00:29:54
◼
►
And it was a phone, and it was called the iPhone,
00:29:58
◼
►
but it was like the Cisco iPhone,
00:30:00
◼
►
and it was like some kind of stupid, like, regular phone,
00:30:04
◼
►
but somehow you could put it on an IP network.
00:30:08
◼
►
It was like, clearly somebody at Cisco
00:30:09
◼
►
who was in these trademark negotiations with Apple
00:30:13
◼
►
was like, we'd be in a better position
00:30:15
◼
►
if we had a product using them.
00:30:16
◼
►
- Just put this stake in the ground.
00:30:19
◼
►
Anybody have a phone?
00:30:20
◼
►
And I think they just took one of the phones
00:30:22
◼
►
and just cut the cable, right?
00:30:25
◼
►
And they're like, somebody put an ethernet down.
00:30:27
◼
►
- If you look at it closely, it's actually a Sharpie
00:30:29
◼
►
that drew iPhone on the back of it.
00:30:32
◼
►
- And then I remember on stage when he announced it
00:30:36
◼
►
and he said, you know, it's a phone,
00:30:38
◼
►
an internet communicator, and you know,
00:30:40
◼
►
whatever the other-- - iPod.
00:30:42
◼
►
- Oh, iPod, yeah, a widescreen video iPod.
00:30:45
◼
►
And yes, we're calling it iPhone.
00:30:47
◼
►
You could almost hear, like he wanted to say,
00:30:49
◼
►
"Fuck you, Cisco."
00:30:50
◼
►
(audience laughs)
00:30:53
◼
►
- I miss that guy.
00:30:56
◼
►
So, yeah, another thing I have here with Apple,
00:31:03
◼
►
and Steve Jobs even, and it kinda goes back to the 90s,
00:31:07
◼
►
and there was the famous Macworld Expo in summer '97,
00:31:16
◼
►
and Jobs was the I CEO, interim CEO,
00:31:21
◼
►
and they announced the $150 million investment
00:31:25
◼
►
from Microsoft in Apple.
00:31:27
◼
►
- And the crowd booed.
00:31:29
◼
►
- At Macworld in Boston, right?
00:31:31
◼
►
- Yeah, and the giant, like 70 foot Bill Gates
00:31:35
◼
►
on video behind Steve Jobs.
00:31:37
◼
►
And there's two things about that
00:31:42
◼
►
that I've been thinking about this week.
00:31:43
◼
►
I just saw somebody else,
00:31:44
◼
►
A lot of people think that that $150 million from Microsoft saved Apple, literally kept them out.
00:31:49
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They were close to bankruptcy.
00:31:51
◼
►
But the $150 million wasn't anywhere near as big a deal in terms of saving them as the
00:31:56
◼
►
commitment to keep making Office for Mac.
00:32:00
◼
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Because that kept the stock up.
00:32:02
◼
►
Because it was like, well at least it's somewhat...
00:32:04
◼
►
That was a way bigger deal than the $150 million in cash.
00:32:07
◼
►
It also kept developers from defecting.
00:32:10
◼
►
As they said, if Office is available there, then that means that the biggest developer
00:32:16
◼
►
of productivity software in the world is still committed to it, so we can draft with them.
00:32:22
◼
►
We can ride their coattails.
00:32:23
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►
The 150 million investment was really symbolic.
00:32:27
◼
►
And I mean that, I'm not a financial expert, but Apple had been losing billions.
00:32:32
◼
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To go from where Apple was in the early '90s where they were flying high to be teetering,
00:32:37
◼
►
even mentioning the word bankruptcy,
00:32:38
◼
►
meant they were losing billions.
00:32:41
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►
150 million, you know, if you're losing billions,
00:32:44
◼
►
Christ, 150 million, you just lose that in Vegas.
00:32:46
◼
►
(audience laughs)
00:32:49
◼
►
It was the commitment to Office that really was like,
00:32:51
◼
►
you know, hey, Microsoft is still with us,
00:32:53
◼
►
and if Microsoft's still with us,
00:32:55
◼
►
you know, maybe you should be too.
00:32:56
◼
►
But the thing that I remember is that,
00:32:58
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and they got booed, like you said,
00:32:59
◼
►
Steve, you know, they booed this,
00:33:01
◼
►
and people wanted to fight, and Steve Jobs said,
00:33:04
◼
►
I'm paraphrasing, but I think I can get it close,
00:33:07
◼
►
is we have to let go of this notion
00:33:10
◼
►
that for Apple to win, Microsoft has to lose.
00:33:14
◼
►
For Apple to win, Apple just has to make great products.
00:33:17
◼
►
And if other companies want to help us, that's great.
00:33:19
◼
►
We'll take it, we want friends.
00:33:21
◼
►
But if we have to do it ourselves, we do,
00:33:23
◼
►
and we're going to sink or swim, lose or die,
00:33:25
◼
►
by are we going to make great products?
00:33:28
◼
►
And I think that's exactly where Microsoft is today.
00:33:33
◼
►
Although with a significantly better balance sheet.
00:33:35
◼
►
Right, no, and that's, it's a huge advantage, right?
00:33:38
◼
►
So, Apple was actually in trouble.
00:33:40
◼
►
Microsoft is not in trouble.
00:33:41
◼
►
I'd say what the problem Microsoft has gotten into is more or less like they were in the
00:33:47
◼
►
They were in the doldrums and you could also see certain product lines that had whatever
00:33:55
◼
►
the inverse of a hockey stick curve is, you know, where there was a potential they could
00:34:00
◼
►
you could just go bazing and go down and drop off a cliff.
00:34:05
◼
►
And anybody who's looking at the desktop software market,
00:34:10
◼
►
for example, used to be that you could get,
00:34:15
◼
►
a developer could sell a Windows program
00:34:20
◼
►
for 30 to $50 fairly easily.
00:34:23
◼
►
People would pay that.
00:34:25
◼
►
For a very complex product, you might get 100, $200.
00:34:29
◼
►
and then Adobe and Microsoft could charge
00:34:33
◼
►
a lot more than that.
00:34:35
◼
►
Today, the idea of someone paying $30 for a program
00:34:40
◼
►
is almost laughable.
00:34:45
◼
►
If you ask for $10 for an app now,
00:34:47
◼
►
people go, "That's too expensive."
00:34:51
◼
►
$5, they might consider it, but man, it better be good,
00:34:57
◼
►
I don't want to see a single four-star review in there.
00:35:00
◼
►
And everything else is 99 cents or a buck 99.
00:35:04
◼
►
And so I think anybody who looked a couple years ago
00:35:08
◼
►
at where the, just post-iPad and with the App Store
00:35:12
◼
►
in full swing, you looked at that and you said,
00:35:17
◼
►
our business is dependent on desktop software
00:35:20
◼
►
and Windows licenses that cost more than $30.
00:35:25
◼
►
better figure out how to let that business degrade
00:35:29
◼
►
and find the one that's going to keep growing?
00:35:34
◼
►
- I think it's true, I really do.
00:35:36
◼
►
I think that even when companies get truly big,
00:35:39
◼
►
and Microsoft is a huge company, Apple is a huge company,
00:35:42
◼
►
but there's a certain DNA that always dates back
00:35:47
◼
►
to when it was founded.
00:35:49
◼
►
And with Apple, it really does go back to this DNA
00:35:52
◼
►
when it was the two Steves in a garage.
00:35:55
◼
►
For Microsoft, part of that DNA to me is the whole idea of selling software.
00:36:01
◼
►
Because in the 70s, there was this nascent personal computing market.
00:36:08
◼
►
And anybody who was like us and was into computers at the time,
00:36:11
◼
►
was, "Can't wait! I could have a computer in my house."
00:36:15
◼
►
And there was, "I want to write, people want to write software for it."
00:36:18
◼
►
And people would write the software and they would just publish it,
00:36:21
◼
►
or the source code, and everybody could do it.
00:36:23
◼
►
And Bill Gates' thing, he had like a letter
00:36:26
◼
►
that he published in the--
00:36:27
◼
►
- I was just thinking of that one, you know.
00:36:29
◼
►
- Homebrew Computing Club.
00:36:30
◼
►
- Stop stealing software, pay for it.
00:36:32
◼
►
- Right, his idea was, you know, everybody was saying,
00:36:35
◼
►
everybody was saying, we could write software
00:36:37
◼
►
for personal computers.
00:36:37
◼
►
Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, you know, together, and--
00:36:42
◼
►
- And Paul Allen. - And Paul Allen.
00:36:43
◼
►
Their idea was, we can write software
00:36:45
◼
►
for personal computers, and we can sell it.
00:36:48
◼
►
Right, and people thought they were nuts, right?
00:36:50
◼
►
They were, people thought he was absolutely nuts,
00:36:53
◼
►
and when he wrote the letter that said,
00:36:54
◼
►
stop stealing it, we're trying to,
00:36:57
◼
►
if everybody steals it, we're not gonna be able
00:36:59
◼
►
to keep making this.
00:37:00
◼
►
And they were like, well, nobody's gonna pay for software.
00:37:04
◼
►
And he was right, but that's their DNA,
00:37:07
◼
►
and the world is really kind of shifting away from that.
00:37:10
◼
►
- Yeah, well, the other thing,
00:37:12
◼
►
the other interesting thing about the DNA of the company,
00:37:15
◼
►
and it's unique to Microsoft,
00:37:20
◼
►
was what happened in 1997 to 2001 with the antitrust trial
00:37:30
◼
►
that resulted in the big settlement
00:37:35
◼
►
agreement, settlement decree.
00:37:37
◼
►
And then that was followed by a couple of antitrust suits
00:37:45
◼
►
And so I think the other--
00:37:46
◼
►
the interesting thing about Microsoft
00:37:48
◼
►
is they still have that sort of founder's DNA in them,
00:37:51
◼
►
but they also have this--
00:37:54
◼
►
they were brutalized by those lawsuits.
00:37:59
◼
►
They were forced to change just about every business practice
00:38:05
◼
►
that had made them successful.
00:38:08
◼
►
Some of them, it's a good thing that those business practices
00:38:11
◼
►
were changed because they were abusive monopoly power.
00:38:14
◼
►
In other cases, they were things that we take as commonplace today.
00:38:18
◼
►
An operating system has a browser in it.
00:38:22
◼
►
But the consent decree said you have to separate the browser from the operating system and
00:38:29
◼
►
you have to provide a mechanism for alternative browsers or malware.
00:38:33
◼
►
Microsoft's argument at the trial that the browser belongs as part of the operating system
00:38:40
◼
►
was widely mocked by critics.
00:38:44
◼
►
And they made the argument in a very ham-handed fashion.
00:38:50
◼
►
This terrible demo by Jim Alchin,
00:38:54
◼
►
who it was a videotape deposition,
00:38:58
◼
►
and they discovered afterwards that the government, David
00:39:03
◼
►
Boyce and his team, found that they had spliced--
00:39:07
◼
►
they had cut things out of this video.
00:39:12
◼
►
And when they got to see the whole thing,
00:39:14
◼
►
it kind of changed the story.
00:39:16
◼
►
And it made them look worse.
00:39:19
◼
►
It made them look dishonest, like they
00:39:20
◼
►
were trying to hide something.
00:39:22
◼
►
There was actually a legitimate story to tell.
00:39:25
◼
►
They had the truth on their side.
00:39:26
◼
►
They had the truth on their side.
00:39:30
◼
►
But that early DNA was win at any cost, which
00:39:34
◼
►
is what got them in trouble.
00:39:36
◼
►
So I think now, a lot of people still
00:39:39
◼
►
have the belief that Microsoft is this cutthroat, win
00:39:42
◼
►
at any cost company.
00:39:44
◼
►
And they have this image of the hard charging, rule busting
00:39:49
◼
►
Microsoft of the '90s.
00:39:51
◼
►
But the Microsoft that I know from today and the last eight
00:39:56
◼
►
to 10 years is one that is hypersensitive to rules
00:40:02
◼
►
and legal processes and will bend over the other direction
00:40:07
◼
►
to avoid the appearance, and even then,
00:40:10
◼
►
they still get nailed in the EU
00:40:13
◼
►
for things that they thought they had covered.
00:40:18
◼
►
One of the ways, clearly, that Microsoft
00:40:24
◼
►
is different from Apple, and that this conference
00:40:27
◼
►
is very different from WWDC, is that,
00:40:30
◼
►
just the mere fact that you're still here.
00:40:31
◼
►
This is day two of the conference.
00:40:33
◼
►
There's a couple of press rooms.
00:40:34
◼
►
We're actually recording a show in one of the press rooms,
00:40:36
◼
►
but there's a press room next door
00:40:37
◼
►
and a press room next door.
00:40:39
◼
►
So you've been here for two days, right?
00:40:42
◼
►
- Yep. - And you're here all day.
00:40:44
◼
►
At WWDC, when you have a press badge,
00:40:46
◼
►
you come to the morning keynote,
00:40:48
◼
►
which is only 90 minutes, Microsoft.
00:40:52
◼
►
(audience laughing)
00:40:55
◼
►
- Yesterday's keynote could have been,
00:40:57
◼
►
I think they could have cut the big sequence
00:41:01
◼
►
with Joe Belfiore playing the giant piano
00:41:05
◼
►
connected to a telnet window.
00:41:08
◼
►
That was a little weird.
00:41:11
◼
►
- But the press comes in, there's a 90 minute keynote
00:41:14
◼
►
that is largely devoid of technical information.
00:41:17
◼
►
They segregate, there is like,
00:41:20
◼
►
they don't call it a keynote,
00:41:21
◼
►
but there's effectively after lunch on day one,
00:41:24
◼
►
here's the tech keynote,
00:41:25
◼
►
and here's where we're gonna show Xcode,
00:41:27
◼
►
and we're gonna show source code,
00:41:29
◼
►
and we're gonna do nerdy stuff.
00:41:31
◼
►
But the morning keynote is very, very layperson, consumery.
00:41:35
◼
►
and they flush Moscone, I mean you're out,
00:41:38
◼
►
like when that keynote is over, everybody's out,
00:41:42
◼
►
including badge holders, everybody's out,
00:41:44
◼
►
and that's to make sure all the press are out,
00:41:46
◼
►
and then you can't get back in.
00:41:48
◼
►
Once that morning keynote is over,
00:41:50
◼
►
and you go down the escalator, you're--
00:41:52
◼
►
- Unless you've paid for a developer's badge.
00:41:55
◼
►
- And then you can go into the sessions.
00:41:56
◼
►
- Right, so that's like, last couple of years,
00:41:59
◼
►
I've done that, but I pay for it.
00:42:00
◼
►
It's not included, you know, my press badge is free,
00:42:03
◼
►
you develop a relationship and you get in for free,
00:42:07
◼
►
but to come to anything else the rest of the week,
00:42:09
◼
►
you need a paid badge.
00:42:11
◼
►
And in fact, if anybody suspects that maybe
00:42:14
◼
►
they helped me or something like that,
00:42:15
◼
►
I think that they don't like it when press people buy them.
00:42:18
◼
►
'Cause I don't, you're under NDA,
00:42:21
◼
►
everything's under NDA anyway,
00:42:22
◼
►
but they think, why are the press coming into these things
00:42:26
◼
►
unless they wanna write about it,
00:42:27
◼
►
and we don't want them writing about it, it's under NDA.
00:42:29
◼
►
- Right, yeah, I mean, there again is a difference
00:42:33
◼
►
in just sort of the institutional mentality
00:42:37
◼
►
of the two companies.
00:42:40
◼
►
So the interesting thing about WWDC,
00:42:43
◼
►
I've never been to one, but I've watched them,
00:42:47
◼
►
the live streams of them.
00:42:50
◼
►
Apple is primarily a consumer company,
00:42:53
◼
►
and so that keynote is almost a commercial.
00:42:56
◼
►
- No, definitely.
00:42:57
◼
►
- Especially when Steve Jobs was doing the things.
00:43:03
◼
►
And then the developer stuff is like,
00:43:06
◼
►
don't look behind the curtain kind of stuff.
00:43:08
◼
►
You don't really want consumers to know about this stuff
00:43:12
◼
►
because you want it to be magical.
00:43:14
◼
►
The Microsoft thing, first of all,
00:43:17
◼
►
it's primarily business focused.
00:43:20
◼
►
Although, they would like, Xbox, of course,
00:43:25
◼
►
is a great consumer success,
00:43:29
◼
►
and they would like the new PC form factors
00:43:32
◼
►
to be consumer successes as well,
00:43:34
◼
►
but when you get right down to it,
00:43:35
◼
►
most of the developers here are writing software
00:43:39
◼
►
for business users, sometimes for internal enterprise apps
00:43:44
◼
►
and stuff, so that you get that consumer
00:43:47
◼
►
versus business thing, you also have
00:43:49
◼
►
the open versus secret thing,
00:43:52
◼
►
and Apple thrives on, you know,
00:43:55
◼
►
it's consumer business is one of its key strategic advantages
00:44:01
◼
►
its ability to keep a secret.
00:44:02
◼
►
And Microsoft has tried that in the last couple of years,
00:44:06
◼
►
and it's backfired.
00:44:09
◼
►
And so the one thing that we have seen this week here
00:44:13
◼
►
is more of a willingness to talk about the future,
00:44:16
◼
►
to outline roadmaps, even if they don't have dates on them.
00:44:19
◼
►
At least, this is going to continue to be supported.
00:44:23
◼
►
This thing is coming in a future update to Windows.
00:44:28
◼
►
But we won't tell you exactly when,
00:44:30
◼
►
but you can look forward to it.
00:44:31
◼
►
And so you're seeing a little bit more of that now.
00:44:34
◼
►
And that's really, it has to be,
00:44:36
◼
►
especially for that cross-device, cross-platform world,
00:44:40
◼
►
you have to be more open.
00:44:42
◼
►
Secrecy just isn't going to work.
00:44:45
◼
►
So like, and it's the best example I can think of.
00:44:47
◼
►
So Microsoft came to me and they knew that I was coming
00:44:51
◼
►
for the Azure thing with Vesper,
00:44:55
◼
►
and said, "Hey, would you like to do your podcast here
00:44:59
◼
►
and we're gonna have people do it, we'll give you a room,
00:45:01
◼
►
we'll give you a mic, we'll give you a beer.
00:45:04
◼
►
And there was no other strings attached.
00:45:06
◼
►
It wasn't like, here's what we want you to talk about,
00:45:08
◼
►
or here's what you can or can't.
00:45:09
◼
►
It was like, do you want the room?
00:45:10
◼
►
Like, the odds of Apple offering that to say you,
00:45:15
◼
►
well, they wouldn't even offer it to me,
00:45:18
◼
►
but the odds that they're gonna say,
00:45:19
◼
►
hey Ed Baugh, would you like to do a podcast
00:45:22
◼
►
from within Moscone West at 4.30 on Wednesday at WWDC.
00:45:28
◼
►
I'd say that's when the meteor hits San Francisco.
00:45:32
◼
►
Right, you should immediately call your broker
00:45:35
◼
►
and short apple because clearly--
00:45:37
◼
►
Something seriously wrong here.
00:45:39
◼
►
--two cookies hit the sauce.
00:45:42
◼
►
Yeah, so just fundamental differences.
00:45:44
◼
►
Very different.
00:45:47
◼
►
Now, a word from our sponsors.
00:45:50
◼
►
John again, interrupting just to tell you about another one
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of our great sponsors.
00:45:56
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►
I want to tell you about Branchfire.
00:45:58
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It's just like a theme this week with the sponsors.
00:46:01
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Everybody's on fire.
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We had Backblaze, now we have Branchfire.
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00:46:49
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of choice for entrepreneurs and executives as well.
00:46:54
◼
►
surprised to me that it's an iPad app. I think if there's one area where the iPad really
00:46:59
◼
►
stands out as it just a tremendous device, it's about you know, compared to iPhones,
00:47:04
◼
►
and even Macs is for reading PDFs. Because it is it in your hands. It's like the size
00:47:10
◼
►
of a piece of paper and PDF, you know, it's sort of an eight and a half by 11. Or for
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◼
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those of you in Europe, what do you guys call it a for roughly that size device, and it
00:47:21
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►
It just is like a natural fit for PDF.
00:47:24
◼
►
So it's no surprise to me that an app like iAnnotate is such a big hit with iOS, iPad
00:47:30
◼
►
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00:47:32
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►
Branchfire, the team, they are hard at work on an exciting new mobile and desktop product
00:47:37
◼
►
called Folia, F-O-L-I-A.
00:47:40
◼
►
You can find out more by following Branchfire on Twitter.
00:47:44
◼
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That's @Branchfire.
00:47:47
◼
►
on Facebook too and you can go to www.branchfire.com/getiannotate
00:47:58
◼
►
branchfire.com/getiannotate to see the current app in action. It's a great app.
00:48:05
◼
►
If you use PDFs and you have an iPad you've got to check it out. Really good
00:48:08
◼
►
app. So my thanks to Branchfire. Now back to the show. So let's talk a little bit
00:48:16
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about some of the news from this week.
00:48:18
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I think, to me the thing that stuck out the most,
00:48:20
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that is the most intriguing to me is Windows Phone 8.1.
00:48:24
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- And I said when I linked to it, just short and sweet
00:48:28
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'cause I was pecking it out on my phone,
00:48:30
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but that to me it looks like from Windows 8 to 8.1
00:48:34
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has more new stuff than Windows 7 to Windows 8.
00:48:38
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- Yeah, and what's fascinating,
00:48:40
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I agree with that assessment completely,
00:48:44
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And what's interesting is if you,
00:48:45
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I suspect if you went and talked to someone
00:48:48
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on the Windows Phone kernel team,
00:48:51
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they would be happy to explain to you
00:48:52
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why the kernel changes and the architecture changes
00:48:56
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from seven to eight were different.
00:49:00
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In fact, they broke compatibility.
00:49:02
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They angered people with that one.
00:49:05
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And so that was, it looked like almost nothing
00:49:09
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from the user experience side,
00:49:11
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but it was huge from the kernel side.
00:49:14
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But once you have that, and again,
00:49:16
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this is one of those things,
00:49:18
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they were talking about this three or four years ago,
00:49:21
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and now the user interface stuff was made possible,
00:49:26
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the rapid iteration in user interface stuff
00:49:29
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was made possible by the kernel work
00:49:31
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that they did back then.
00:49:33
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And in fact, they're now bringing the APIs together
00:49:38
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for phone and Windows tablets and Windows desktops
00:49:43
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desktops, and even Xbox.
00:49:46
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So that I think the official numbers like 92% of the APIs are common for those.
00:49:53
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So basically, you know, the pitch is that you can write an app, you know, it's not exactly
00:50:01
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the old write once, run anywhere thing, but it's write once and have a relatively easy
00:50:07
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time of porting it to other members of the same family.
00:50:12
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that the only differences are the things
00:50:13
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that are obviously different.
00:50:15
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The screen is much bigger.
00:50:16
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Or if it's for the Xbox, it's not touch,
00:50:20
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it's going to be an Xbox controller.
00:50:23
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- And you have a cellular radio in one device
00:50:25
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that's most likely not in any of those other devices.
00:50:27
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- The differences are the actual differences
00:50:29
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in the devices that the--
00:50:31
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- Yeah, and so one of my favorite apps,
00:50:34
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I think it should be a showcase app for Windows 8,
00:50:40
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in fact, is one called Tweedium.
00:50:44
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Written by a guy named Brandon Paddock.
00:50:49
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It's just an amazing app, and I noticed
00:50:52
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he had taken his Windows 8 app.
00:50:54
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Yesterday he got the Windows Phone 8.1 bits and the SDK,
00:51:00
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and today he was showing a running version of Tweedium
00:51:04
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on Windows Phone 8.1.
00:51:06
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Which is, so I mean, it's kind of a,
00:51:09
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a validation of their story.
00:51:13
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Clearly, a flagship feature, big part of the keynote yesterday, a lot of the news is Cortana,
00:51:21
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which of course inevitably was immediately headlined everywhere as "Ciri Killer," which
00:51:27
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is the worst, the killer thing, everybody, killer should be one of those words where
00:51:30
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if you're CMS, if you put it in a headline, it should immediately like autocorrect, it
00:51:36
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just zaps, it just goes away.
00:51:37
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Actually, I think there should probably
00:51:39
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be low voltage electrical on the keys.
00:51:44
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And it just gives you a shock.
00:51:47
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So it's like one of those collars that keeps you from--
00:51:50
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keeps your dog from running outside your property line.
00:51:53
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It should keep you from not typing that word again.
00:51:56
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You really should not be able to put killer in a headline
00:51:59
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unless you have a police report that shows
00:52:02
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that there's a dead body.
00:52:03
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Chalk marks.
00:52:06
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And anyway, I think that's one of those things,
00:52:10
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if you look at it for 10 seconds, you might say,
00:52:13
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oh, Siri is Cortana.
00:52:14
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Well, they're both this sort of pulsing thing on the phone
00:52:17
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and a female voice.
00:52:19
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But really, what's interesting about Cortana
00:52:23
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is that it's sort of a fairly artful mashup of Siri and Google
00:52:30
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now because it has the--
00:52:35
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a lot of it is you're giving--
00:52:37
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you can give Cortana permission to access your schedule,
00:52:44
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your email, your text messages, your phone book and addresses,
00:52:50
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and on and on and on.
00:52:51
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You're browsing history and all of that stuff.
00:52:56
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And so you can get Google Now type smart notifications
00:53:01
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that you never had to explicitly ask for delivered
00:53:05
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through a Siri-like interface.
00:53:07
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And so that's kind of--
00:53:09
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that, I think, is really the innovation in it.
00:53:13
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It's neither one nor the other.
00:53:16
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Yeah, I think that it inevitably happens
00:53:20
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that whoever ships first can claim
00:53:24
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to be ripped off going forward.
00:53:26
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but the idea of voice-driven computing is not new,
00:53:30
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and so Siri shipped before Cortana
00:53:33
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and Google Now shipped in between,
00:53:36
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but Google had something else before Siri.
00:53:38
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- We've got 2001 and WarGames as prior art.
00:53:43
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►
- One of the things that I thought was interesting
00:53:48
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about Cortana though, and I'm not 100%,
00:53:51
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but I think my understanding of the way it works though
00:53:55
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►
is that Cortana runs largely or maybe even entirely
00:53:58
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on the device.
00:53:59
◼
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- Which is a very, forget Siri, but compared to Google Now,
00:54:04
◼
►
where it's here's all of your information sent to Google,
00:54:08
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►
and most of the compute happens with Google Cloud stuff
00:54:13
◼
►
looking at your data and figuring this stuff out,
00:54:16
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whereas with Cortana, it's on your phone,
00:54:19
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►
and your email's on your phone--
00:54:20
◼
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- Especially with the email thing.
00:54:21
◼
►
So Cortana is only allowed to read email on your phone,
00:54:24
◼
►
And that cannot be transmitted to the service.
00:54:30
◼
►
And so it's a fundamental--
00:54:34
◼
►
really a fundamental difference between the two services.
00:54:39
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►
Google says we want all of your information.
00:54:43
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►
We want it on--
00:54:46
◼
►
your Google account allows you to put all of this
00:54:51
◼
►
on our servers and we will aggregate it.
00:54:54
◼
►
And then-- and it's a black box at that point.
00:54:58
◼
►
Because the other interesting feature about Cortana
00:55:02
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►
that I'm not sure made it into too many of the stories
00:55:05
◼
►
there is that there is an interface called
00:55:07
◼
►
Cortana's Notebook.
00:55:09
◼
►
And so Cortana's Notebook is taken from the idea
00:55:13
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►
that apparently the developers of Cortana
00:55:16
◼
►
interviewed a bunch of actual personal assistants
00:55:19
◼
►
of executives and said, how do you keep your boss looking
00:55:27
◼
►
smart and on schedule throughout the day?
00:55:30
◼
►
And they said, well, we have a notebook
00:55:32
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►
where we have all this stuff about him
00:55:35
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►
that we know about him or her.
00:55:38
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►
And so they've replicated that thing there.
00:55:42
◼
►
But the most salient feature of Cortana's notebook
00:55:47
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►
is the ability to say, remove that.
00:55:51
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►
Or include this thing that you didn't see.
00:55:55
◼
►
So you have control over the stuff that's in there.
00:55:58
◼
►
Now, with most products like this,
00:56:01
◼
►
where you give the customer the ability to tweak the thing,
00:56:07
◼
►
we know from experience that 80% to 90%
00:56:09
◼
►
of the people who use it will never look at that.
00:56:13
◼
►
but for the 10% or 15 or 20 for whom that's important,
00:56:18
◼
►
it's really important.
00:56:19
◼
►
And the idea, you can go in there and say,
00:56:21
◼
►
I don't want, I just don't want you
00:56:25
◼
►
to have that information at all.
00:56:29
◼
►
I don't want that to be part of my profile,
00:56:31
◼
►
and you can do that.
00:56:33
◼
►
- Yeah, it seems like a big difference,
00:56:34
◼
►
and I'm really intrigued to see once it gets out
00:56:37
◼
►
in the real world how people's reaction is to it,
00:56:40
◼
►
because clearly that, for better or for worse,
00:56:43
◼
►
the story with Syria was announced
00:56:46
◼
►
and it looked really cool, and then it shipped,
00:56:49
◼
►
and a lot of people clearly found that it did not quite work
00:56:54
◼
►
as it was advertised.
00:56:56
◼
►
I think it's gotten a lot better.
00:56:57
◼
►
I think it's one of those things where, yes,
00:56:59
◼
►
clearly they pitched it in the nicest light.
00:57:01
◼
►
- But you don't get a second chance
00:57:06
◼
►
to make a first impression. - Right, exactly.
00:57:07
◼
►
It's gotten noticeably better over the last two years,
00:57:11
◼
►
but in little tiny, the way that cloud stuff gets better.
00:57:16
◼
►
Little bit here, little bit there, little bit faster here.
00:57:19
◼
►
They call it Siri, but Siri's really the personal assistant,
00:57:25
◼
►
but Apple calls it Siri when you do the text-to-speech,
00:57:29
◼
►
or speech-to-text dictation.
00:57:32
◼
►
That works so much better than it did when they shipped.
00:57:34
◼
►
Like when I'm in, it's winter and my hand is cold
00:57:37
◼
►
and I'm walking in Philadelphia, and I
00:57:39
◼
►
want to quick dictate a text to my wife or something,
00:57:42
◼
►
works so good.
00:57:43
◼
►
It really does.
00:57:45
◼
►
But it's too late.
00:57:46
◼
►
They don't get credit for it now because--
00:57:49
◼
►
Well, I think the other difference between the two
00:57:51
◼
►
things, and another thing that probably didn't make it
00:57:55
◼
►
into too many of the news stories today,
00:57:58
◼
►
is that Cortana is extensible.
00:58:02
◼
►
So third party apps can hook into Cortana,
00:58:07
◼
►
and so there's APIs for an app to be able
00:58:12
◼
►
to have Cortana as a front end.
00:58:18
◼
►
- Right, and so it's officially beta,
00:58:20
◼
►
they're calling it beta.
00:58:21
◼
►
- They're launching it as a beta with Windows Phone 8.1.
00:58:23
◼
►
- But it's going to ship as part of 8.1, right?
00:58:27
◼
►
- 'Cause Apple called Siri beta two,
00:58:28
◼
►
I think it's just a way of saying,
00:58:29
◼
►
look, this stuff might not work great
00:58:31
◼
►
until we have a couple months under our wings of--
00:58:35
◼
►
- Well I think Google did, how long was Gmail in beta?
00:58:38
◼
►
- Everything at Google is still beta.
00:58:41
◼
►
I'm pretty sure Google searches still beta.
00:58:43
◼
►
But they're definitely going to beat Apple
00:58:50
◼
►
to developer extensibility because Siri
00:58:53
◼
►
is not developer extensible at all.
00:58:55
◼
►
There is no integration with third party apps.
00:58:58
◼
►
So even if Apple announces it at WWDC this year,
00:59:03
◼
►
which is, it's gonna be first week of June,
00:59:05
◼
►
that's not gonna ship until the new OS comes out,
00:59:08
◼
►
which is probably gonna be when the phone,
00:59:10
◼
►
if they stick to the same schedule as last couple years.
00:59:12
◼
►
- September, October. - September, October.
00:59:14
◼
►
And Cortana's gonna be out before then,
00:59:17
◼
►
and they're, a version, this sort of idea,
00:59:20
◼
►
voice-driven, personal assistant,
00:59:23
◼
►
but they're gonna, Microsoft's gonna have
00:59:25
◼
►
third-party integration before Apple.
00:59:27
◼
►
And that's if Apple does it this year.
00:59:30
◼
►
- Right, and there's another thing that Cortana has
00:59:33
◼
►
that Siri doesn't that Google now does.
00:59:39
◼
►
And it's kind of a big punch in the nose
00:59:44
◼
►
to everyone who, all these pundits who are saying
00:59:48
◼
►
Microsoft needs to get rid of Bing.
00:59:50
◼
►
Bing's just a drag on the business.
00:59:53
◼
►
Basically, Bing is--
00:59:57
◼
►
Cortana sits on top of Bing.
01:00:01
◼
►
And Bing is not just a search engine
01:00:03
◼
►
that delivers a list of results.
01:00:06
◼
►
It has-- there's a tremendous amount of semantic knowledge
01:00:11
◼
►
in the back end.
01:00:12
◼
►
So if you ask for what's the best restaurant that's
01:00:18
◼
►
within a 10-minute walk of me, it
01:00:21
◼
►
can pull that up from Yelp and give you that answer.
01:00:26
◼
►
It has access to a lot of sources of data,
01:00:32
◼
►
the kind of things that appear in the info box
01:00:35
◼
►
of a search results page that it can also use as answers
01:00:40
◼
►
to a question that you ask it.
01:00:44
◼
►
And so those become very competitive advantages
01:00:48
◼
►
that are there because of the so-called losses
01:00:52
◼
►
that Microsoft took on Bing for all these years.
01:00:56
◼
►
If you think of Bing as, you know,
01:00:59
◼
►
bing.com versus google.com, those are losses.
01:01:02
◼
►
If you think of that as a sort of product, a consumer product
01:01:09
◼
►
that was sort of helping to pay for the incredible investment
01:01:15
◼
►
in information on the back end
01:01:17
◼
►
that was ultimately going to drive a service like Cortana,
01:01:20
◼
►
then it's not a loss, it's an investment.
01:01:22
◼
►
- Right, it's all, you know, seems like science fiction
01:01:25
◼
►
until we have it and then it seems boring
01:01:27
◼
►
and we complain about it.
01:01:29
◼
►
But you know, like you said, Hal from 2001, 1968,
01:01:34
◼
►
we're getting there, you know, we're getting there
01:01:36
◼
►
where you just talk to the computer
01:01:38
◼
►
and the computer gives you answers.
01:01:41
◼
►
And having something like Bing gives Microsoft
01:01:43
◼
►
a serious leg up over Apple, which doesn't have that,
01:01:47
◼
►
and doesn't want to use Google to do it.
01:01:51
◼
►
- Right, I mean, Apple has already demonstrated with maps
01:01:54
◼
►
that it would like to sever potentially life-threatening
01:01:59
◼
►
connections, you know, because if, you know,
01:02:05
◼
►
maps are such a crucial component of a mobile device.
01:02:08
◼
►
- Apple does it a little bit, I mean, you know,
01:02:10
◼
►
they're not totally going it alone.
01:02:12
◼
►
Siri has integration with Wolfram Alpha for a lot of stuff.
01:02:16
◼
►
So if you ask Siri for stock quotes, I think she goes to Wolfram Alpha.
01:02:20
◼
►
Maybe not, she might just go to the widget.
01:02:21
◼
►
But I know if you just do math, if you just ask her math questions,
01:02:24
◼
►
she goes to Wolfram Alpha and the results come back from them.
01:02:27
◼
►
But I can't help but think, and this is one of the thoughts I've had the last two days here at Build,
01:02:33
◼
►
is I again think back to the iPhone introduction in 2007.
01:02:39
◼
►
and Steve Jobs introed it, it was amazing,
01:02:41
◼
►
the audience was blown away, and he said,
01:02:43
◼
►
"Now I'm gonna invite some friends up there."
01:02:44
◼
►
And his first friend that came out was Eric Schmidt,
01:02:46
◼
►
then board member. (audience laughs)
01:02:48
◼
►
And they hugged each other, and they're laughing,
01:02:50
◼
►
and it was all smiles, and the gist of what Steve Jobs said
01:02:55
◼
►
is, "Hey, Google's our great friend,
01:02:57
◼
►
"and they do some amazing things.
01:02:58
◼
►
"We do totally different amazing things.
01:03:01
◼
►
"We build these great little devices
01:03:03
◼
►
"with really beautiful user interface.
01:03:05
◼
►
"They do search, and they've got maps,
01:03:07
◼
►
and they've got this YouTube thing,
01:03:09
◼
►
so we'll just use them for all that stuff,
01:03:11
◼
►
and then we don't have to worry about it.
01:03:13
◼
►
- Right, and then you all know how that worked out,
01:03:16
◼
►
but I can't help but feel like,
01:03:17
◼
►
well I'm at build this week,
01:03:18
◼
►
like you said, go back to the Venn diagram thing,
01:03:22
◼
►
I can't help but think that there's a no harm done,
01:03:26
◼
►
Apple, you could concentrate on what you do best
01:03:30
◼
►
if maybe you went to your pals at Microsoft a little more.
01:03:36
◼
►
I don't think that's such a bad idea.
01:03:39
◼
►
There's a little bit of the enemy of my enemy
01:03:41
◼
►
is my friend in there.
01:03:43
◼
►
Apple and Microsoft are in sufficiently different worlds,
01:03:51
◼
►
and both face really brutal competition from Google.
01:03:56
◼
►
And so there's always been this--
01:03:59
◼
►
it's always been remarkable to me,
01:04:01
◼
►
As much as the tech press and our readers
01:04:06
◼
►
might like to think that there's this blood war
01:04:10
◼
►
between the two camps, it's really--
01:04:13
◼
►
that hasn't been a thing for a long time.
01:04:15
◼
►
Yeah, but I think it is.
01:04:16
◼
►
And like you said, in very different ways,
01:04:18
◼
►
it is true, though, between both companies and Google.
01:04:21
◼
►
I mean, an enemy is maybe a strong word,
01:04:23
◼
►
but if we want to use that analogy
01:04:27
◼
►
and sort of go a little over the top, it's true.
01:04:30
◼
►
I think Apple's biggest enemy is Google
01:04:33
◼
►
and Microsoft's biggest enemy is Google.
01:04:35
◼
►
- Well, on the Windows platform,
01:04:37
◼
►
Google has been obstinate about refusing
01:04:44
◼
►
to support Windows 8.
01:04:46
◼
►
There is exactly one Google app for Windows 8,
01:04:50
◼
►
Google Search.
01:04:50
◼
►
It has some other stuff embedded in it,
01:04:53
◼
►
so you can use it there, but there's no Gmail app,
01:04:55
◼
►
there's no-- - YouTube.
01:04:57
◼
►
- There's no YouTube.
01:04:58
◼
►
In fact, there's a whole--
01:05:00
◼
►
you could write a sitcom about the whole YouTube controversy
01:05:05
◼
►
Google cannot ignore the Mac, and it cannot ignore the iPad
01:05:10
◼
►
because the overlap between their two audiences are--
01:05:15
◼
►
people use Apple-branded hardware
01:05:18
◼
►
and Google-branded services.
01:05:21
◼
►
And there's a huge influential and wealthy portion
01:05:26
◼
►
of the population, especially in the United States,
01:05:29
◼
►
that that defines.
01:05:30
◼
►
So Google can't afford to alienate Apple users too much,
01:05:37
◼
►
but they can afford to piss off Windows users
01:05:41
◼
►
and hopefully drive them, say, "Hey, it's not us."
01:05:47
◼
►
- In a lot of ways, it seems largely spiteful.
01:05:49
◼
►
Part of the sitcom you describe is that Microsoft said,
01:05:53
◼
►
"Okay, we'll write the app,"
01:05:54
◼
►
and they wrote a YouTube app and then Google...
01:05:59
◼
►
Found an excuse.
01:06:00
◼
►
Right, and yanked the APIs away and said no.
01:06:02
◼
►
Even though there was a...
01:06:04
◼
►
We're not even asking you to do the work.
01:06:05
◼
►
We made the app, it's here.
01:06:07
◼
►
Yeah, it was nuts.
01:06:09
◼
►
Now, a word from our sponsors.
01:06:14
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Hey, Jon here, last sponsor.
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01:08:43
◼
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Now, back to the show.
01:08:45
◼
►
- The other interesting thing about Windows Phone 8.1 is,
01:08:50
◼
►
and I found this a little surprising,
01:08:52
◼
►
I guess it's not shocking but surprising,
01:08:54
◼
►
is that Microsoft announced that on nine inch tablets
01:08:58
◼
►
and smaller and on phones, it is now going to be free.
01:09:01
◼
►
Or there's a version of it.
01:09:02
◼
►
- Yeah, that's the one, you know, I need to go back
01:09:04
◼
►
and read the transcript and watch that again,
01:09:07
◼
►
because it might be one of those things
01:09:08
◼
►
where the devil is in the details there.
01:09:11
◼
►
I think they said something like there's going to be a,
01:09:15
◼
►
we'll make a Windows that will be free.
01:09:19
◼
►
I think $0 was what they put on the slide on the screen.
01:09:24
◼
►
And it was one of those where you say it the right way
01:09:27
◼
►
and everyone, it's the classic magician's trick,
01:09:31
◼
►
misdirection, focus on the $0 up there
01:09:33
◼
►
and miss the caveat there.
01:09:35
◼
►
It may be that this is the ad supported version of Windows
01:09:41
◼
►
that they've talked about through the years.
01:09:45
◼
►
But whether it's that or whether it's something else,
01:09:49
◼
►
the fact is that they've basically--
01:09:51
◼
►
that is a direct shot across the bow of Android.
01:09:56
◼
►
That is nothing to do with Apple and the iPhone
01:09:59
◼
►
and everything to do with Android.
01:10:01
◼
►
And to me, it's one of the biggest mysteries
01:10:03
◼
►
in all of marketing, any field, tech or whatever.
01:10:05
◼
►
But certainly, tech is where I obsess over it more,
01:10:07
◼
►
is when certain products either seemingly get
01:10:12
◼
►
a lot more traction than they seem to deserve,
01:10:17
◼
►
or the flip side when there's a product
01:10:19
◼
►
that doesn't seem to get the traction it deserves.
01:10:22
◼
►
And to me Windows Phone, absolutely,
01:10:25
◼
►
I'm not just saying it 'cause I'm here at Build,
01:10:27
◼
►
I really do think it's a far better product
01:10:30
◼
►
than its market share indicates, like not even close.
01:10:36
◼
►
seems like the phone market is so weird and even on just the Android side alone, just
01:10:41
◼
►
Android, it just like HTC makes what are clearly to me the most beautiful Android phones and
01:10:49
◼
►
they're just getting killed by Samsung.
01:10:52
◼
►
And even if it's, you know, you could make an argument that Samsung for technical reasons
01:10:57
◼
►
and design reasons and whatever, that deserves a market share lead in Android.
01:11:01
◼
►
It just seems to me that on the merits, whatever market share lead they deserve is nowhere
01:11:07
◼
►
near what they have, which is pretty much all of the profits in Android.
01:11:11
◼
►
Yeah, they basically, Apple has most of the profits in the mobile market, and then Samsung
01:11:18
◼
►
has the rest.
01:11:20
◼
►
So what, your main phone is a Windows phone?
01:11:26
◼
►
So what do you think the problem is?
01:11:29
◼
►
Why do you think it isn't more successful?
01:11:31
◼
►
Well, so there's actually three phone markets in the world.
01:11:37
◼
►
There's the United States, which is dominated by an oligopoly
01:11:45
◼
►
of carriers and is driven by carrier subsidies
01:11:50
◼
►
and weird agreements.
01:11:53
◼
►
So there's actually a disincentive for people
01:11:55
◼
►
to buy unlocked handsets.
01:11:59
◼
►
They're expensive and you still have
01:12:00
◼
►
to pay the exact same amount for the service anyway.
01:12:04
◼
►
So there's the US market.
01:12:05
◼
►
And then there's the developed market in the rest of the world
01:12:08
◼
►
where most phones are unlocked and you have your choice,
01:12:12
◼
►
but they're fairly expensive.
01:12:14
◼
►
And then there's where the next billion phones
01:12:16
◼
►
are going to come from in the emerging markets of India,
01:12:20
◼
►
China, Africa, Brazil, all those places where there's
01:12:27
◼
►
small dollars per device and razor thin margins,
01:12:31
◼
►
but the volume is so huge that you can make
01:12:33
◼
►
large amounts of money there.
01:12:35
◼
►
So basically, in the US, all the market forces
01:12:39
◼
►
have been distorted by the complete dominance
01:12:42
◼
►
of the carriers, which Steve Jobs was able to actually break
01:12:47
◼
►
that somehow with a thing that nobody else has ever
01:12:51
◼
►
been able to duplicate.
01:12:53
◼
►
And then, and so as a result, you have, you know,
01:12:58
◼
►
Apple and Samsung basically have all the deals
01:13:02
◼
►
with all the carriers here, and that's the US.
01:13:05
◼
►
Then you get to Europe, where Windows Phone
01:13:08
◼
►
has actually been fairly successful in the UK,
01:13:12
◼
►
it's I think over 10%.
01:13:16
◼
►
- Italy? - In Italy, it's dominant.
01:13:21
◼
►
in Romania, I think, several of the Eastern European countries.
01:13:25
◼
►
So there's pockets there where the phones,
01:13:29
◼
►
they sell for significantly less than an Apple product,
01:13:35
◼
►
And they're of better quality than an Android product.
01:13:39
◼
►
And so the market says, OK.
01:13:40
◼
►
And so they reward that there.
01:13:43
◼
►
And then the real battlefield is going
01:13:45
◼
►
to be in the emerging markets now, where--
01:13:49
◼
►
And I think Apple is just going to say, fine,
01:13:51
◼
►
we'll skim off the wealthy buyers in these markets.
01:13:56
◼
►
They're the same ones who were coming to the US,
01:14:02
◼
►
buying the products and then bringing them back home.
01:14:05
◼
►
They'll finally be able to buy them directly there.
01:14:08
◼
►
And then you'll have this basically a battle royal
01:14:11
◼
►
between manufacturers who are building phones
01:14:16
◼
►
based on Android and those who are building phones
01:14:19
◼
►
based on the Windows operating system,
01:14:21
◼
►
and now that it's free, the competitive landscape
01:14:24
◼
►
for them will change significantly.
01:14:26
◼
►
- So are you optimistic about Windows Phone?
01:14:31
◼
►
- Well, optimistic is one of those odd words, isn't it?
01:14:34
◼
►
I don't think it's, you know,
01:14:36
◼
►
I think they're going to get
01:14:38
◼
►
to double-digit market share worldwide.
01:14:41
◼
►
- But that is, you think it's gonna be
01:14:42
◼
►
disproportionate around the world.
01:14:44
◼
►
- It's going to be disproportionate around the world, yeah.
01:14:47
◼
►
I think it's going to be, you know,
01:14:49
◼
►
Microsoft, Steve Ballmer used to say,
01:14:53
◼
►
you know, the one thing about Microsoft
01:14:54
◼
►
is we keep coming and coming and coming.
01:14:56
◼
►
We just keep hammering at you.
01:14:58
◼
►
We won't, you know, we don't quit.
01:15:01
◼
►
We don't give up.
01:15:02
◼
►
And so, you know, there's a lot of people out there saying,
01:15:04
◼
►
you know, Microsoft just fold its tent on this phone thing
01:15:07
◼
►
'cause they're, you know, they went from 2 1/2% to 4%
01:15:10
◼
►
and it took like two years, you know,
01:15:12
◼
►
and if you grind out the market share like that,
01:15:16
◼
►
You're never going to get back your investment in the thing.
01:15:21
◼
►
Well, I don't know, Xbox maybe proves otherwise.
01:15:24
◼
►
Xbox lost money, big money for seven years,
01:15:30
◼
►
and now it's a successful device,
01:15:34
◼
►
it's profitable on its own,
01:15:36
◼
►
and it has an ecosystem around it,
01:15:37
◼
►
and it has the same halo effect
01:15:40
◼
►
that Apple's always counted on
01:15:43
◼
►
for people to buy an iPod and then an iPhone
01:15:47
◼
►
and then maybe a Mac and become a whole member of the family.
01:15:51
◼
►
The Xbox has played that role there.
01:15:53
◼
►
So I don't think that Microsoft is going to give up
01:15:56
◼
►
on the Windows phone, but I think there's just really
01:16:00
◼
►
a lot of institutional barriers to them getting
01:16:05
◼
►
significant market share quickly.
01:16:08
◼
►
- And it is a weird to me, like,
01:16:11
◼
►
historical tables have turned, where to me Windows Phone
01:16:16
◼
►
is the classic Mac OS from the late 90s,
01:16:20
◼
►
where there's people who really love it for the design,
01:16:24
◼
►
and that they can speak very eloquently,
01:16:26
◼
►
like I really just like the way it works,
01:16:28
◼
►
it clicks in my brain, which is how I felt
01:16:31
◼
►
as a Mac user all that time, and yet you're like
01:16:34
◼
►
the third or fourth platform that Developer X hits
01:16:38
◼
►
when they're shipping an app,
01:16:40
◼
►
- And that sucks, right?
01:16:41
◼
►
- Yeah, so if you wanna call an Uber in San Francisco,
01:16:46
◼
►
you're not gonna do it on your Windows phone.
01:16:48
◼
►
- Oh, I didn't even know that.
01:16:49
◼
►
So they don't even have an Uber?
01:16:50
◼
►
- No, I think you have to go to the mobile site, m.uber.com.
01:16:55
◼
►
They would have made a lot of money this week, I think.
01:17:02
◼
►
- Welcome to being a Mac user in 1998.
01:17:04
◼
►
- Exactly, I'm feeling whatever the opposite
01:17:09
◼
►
- I'm not sure if Schadenfreude is.
01:17:11
◼
►
- But I sympathize, and I do.
01:17:13
◼
►
I think it's, you know, I even saw on some of the demo units
01:17:16
◼
►
I had in the press room, there's a beta of Instagram,
01:17:20
◼
►
and it's smooth.
01:17:21
◼
►
I mean, that's one thing Microsoft has always done well,
01:17:23
◼
►
is make things run fast.
01:17:25
◼
►
And they're totally hitting that 60 frames per second,
01:17:29
◼
►
really nice animation.
01:17:33
◼
►
- No lag, and like you stop, and it stops.
01:17:36
◼
►
it just has that iPhone quality scrolling
01:17:40
◼
►
and stuff like that, which I have never seen
01:17:42
◼
►
on an Android device.
01:17:43
◼
►
- Yeah, so one of the interesting things,
01:17:45
◼
►
I was looking at some numbers
01:17:47
◼
►
when I was on the plane coming up here,
01:17:50
◼
►
the most recent Gartner projections.
01:17:53
◼
►
And so if you take, so they did phones, tablets,
01:17:59
◼
►
PCs, and hybrid devices, okay?
01:18:02
◼
►
So if you take phones out of there,
01:18:05
◼
►
That's a billion and it weirdly distorts the market because in some of those emerging markets,
01:18:12
◼
►
the only device that people will have will be a cheap smartphone.
01:18:16
◼
►
Take that out of there.
01:18:18
◼
►
And you actually, so you think the PC is dying, but what's actually happening is that you
01:18:25
◼
►
combine tablets and conventional desktop and notebook PCs and these new hybrid things which
01:18:31
◼
►
which are, you know, it's a tablet,
01:18:34
◼
►
and then you hook a keyboard onto it,
01:18:35
◼
►
and it's a laptop, and then you disconnect it,
01:18:37
◼
►
and it's a tablet again.
01:18:40
◼
►
And if you combine those three things,
01:18:42
◼
►
you get, between 2013 and 2015,
01:18:45
◼
►
you get a market that's growing at about 3 to 5% a year,
01:18:49
◼
►
which is not unhealthy.
01:18:51
◼
►
We've gotten used to things growing at hyper speed,
01:18:55
◼
►
but that's not an unhealthy growth rate.
01:18:57
◼
►
But what's interesting is that the boring PC segment is the one that's shrinking.
01:19:03
◼
►
The tablet segment is growing, but much more modestly than it did after the iPad's initial
01:19:13
◼
►
And the category that seems to be growing fastest, that Gartner at least says will grow
01:19:19
◼
►
fastest in that time, is this category of hybrids.
01:19:24
◼
►
touch-based devices that like the Surface,
01:19:27
◼
►
but also like the HP Envy or Asus Transformer T100
01:19:32
◼
►
in these things.
01:19:33
◼
►
And that to me, so 21 million of those sold in 2013,
01:19:37
◼
►
60 plus million of those will be sold next year.
01:19:43
◼
►
- The story I've heard, and it's one of those things
01:19:46
◼
►
where it's all, you can make up the story,
01:19:48
◼
►
you can't prove it, but the story I've heard on that is,
01:19:52
◼
►
Why are tablet sales seemingly not as fast as like iPhone and iPhone-like smartphones?
01:19:59
◼
►
Why is the sales graph different?
01:20:02
◼
►
And I think the gist of it that I've heard, and I believe it, it rings true, is it's two
01:20:07
◼
►
One, the phone market is so distorted by the contracts.
01:20:12
◼
►
You know, you buy it for two years and it's at a ridiculously low price, and then when
01:20:15
◼
►
your contract's up, they're like, "Come on in with $199 and get a brand new..."
01:20:20
◼
►
- Or 99 or zero.
01:20:22
◼
►
- And why not?
01:20:24
◼
►
And you tend to abuse your phone more.
01:20:26
◼
►
It's the smallest, it's the most likely to get dropped.
01:20:30
◼
►
It does get dinged up, and you might,
01:20:32
◼
►
a lot of people, even if they take reasonable care of it,
01:20:34
◼
►
might actually need a new one.
01:20:35
◼
►
- Or the battery might have died.
01:20:37
◼
►
Or it might be, it won't hold as much of a charge.
01:20:39
◼
►
- Whereas with tablets, people treat them
01:20:41
◼
►
like they treat PCs, which is more or less
01:20:43
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that they buy one and use it until it breaks.
01:20:45
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- Right, the replacement cycle, if they're like PCs,
01:20:48
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people are going to think of them as a five year purchase
01:20:52
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and the iPad hasn't even,
01:20:54
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the original iPads aren't even five years old yet.
01:21:00
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In fact, they might not even be four years old yet.
01:21:03
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- Four years, so it was 2010.
01:21:05
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Or was it 11?
01:21:06
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- No, it was 2010.
01:21:07
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- But my parents still have an original one
01:21:09
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and I'm like, "You should get a new one."
01:21:11
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They're like, "No, it's brand new."
01:21:14
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Yeah, and a thrifty person.
01:21:17
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- It's the last thing I wanted to talk about is,
01:21:20
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I noticed yesterday when I saw you in the press room
01:21:22
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that you were working on one of these devices.
01:21:25
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- Actually two of them.
01:21:27
◼
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- Right, you were, you were upgrading one.
01:21:29
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And I thought that was interesting,
01:21:33
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that you don't just cover Microsoft,
01:21:35
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and I'm, knowing you from reading your work,
01:21:37
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I don't think you're using one just because
01:21:39
◼
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that's what Microsoft, it seems like you are a proponent
01:21:42
◼
►
of the Surface tablets.
01:21:45
◼
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- Well-- - Or do you like it?
01:21:46
◼
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I-- it's an interesting device.
01:21:49
◼
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Part of my decision--
01:21:51
◼
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it's funny you ask that, because when I came out here--
01:21:54
◼
►
remember Mission Impossible?
01:21:56
◼
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Remember the series?
01:21:57
◼
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So at the beginning of Mission Impossible, the series,
01:22:00
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Peter Graves would-- he'd open this manila folder filled
01:22:07
◼
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with pictures, and he'd bring them out.
01:22:10
◼
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And of course, it was always the same ones that he chose,
01:22:12
◼
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but he'd set the ones that he chose aside.
01:22:14
◼
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So when I was on my way here, I had this big lab bench
01:22:20
◼
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in my office.
01:22:20
◼
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And I had about eight devices on there to choose from.
01:22:24
◼
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And I thought, oh, shit, which ones am I going to bring with me?
01:22:27
◼
►
Because I have-- there were like four 8-inch tablets,
01:22:31
◼
►
and a couple of notebooks, and a couple of Surface family
01:22:35
◼
►
devices, and then this Nokia tablet.
01:22:41
◼
►
So I said, I'm only going to bring two.
01:22:44
◼
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and I want to see how they work.
01:22:47
◼
►
And so the Surface is--
01:22:51
◼
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especially the Surface Pro 2 is a classic example,
01:22:56
◼
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classic Microsoft thing.
01:22:58
◼
►
They get it right on the third iteration.
01:23:01
◼
►
This is the second iteration.
01:23:02
◼
►
And it's so much better than the original, but it's still--
01:23:07
◼
►
there's a few things they can do.
01:23:10
◼
►
And so I think there's going to be a new rendition of it
01:23:14
◼
►
and that will be one where you go,
01:23:16
◼
►
wow, they finally figured everything out
01:23:18
◼
►
and they fixed it.
01:23:19
◼
►
I had an iPad there too and I was sorely tempted
01:23:23
◼
►
to bring the iPad and try and do things
01:23:25
◼
►
in Office for the iPad.
01:23:27
◼
►
But it didn't, it wound up in the coal pile.
01:23:32
◼
►
- And do you think part of it too
01:23:34
◼
►
is more than just hardware though,
01:23:35
◼
►
it ties in with Windows 8.1,
01:23:38
◼
►
which a key feature of is a renewed focus
01:23:43
◼
►
on keyboard and mouse, and by mouse I mean trackpad,
01:23:47
◼
►
anything that moves a cursor around.
01:23:48
◼
►
- Trackpad, mouse, yeah, whatever.
01:23:50
◼
►
It really deals with that what were they thinking
01:23:55
◼
►
kind of objection to the original one,
01:23:57
◼
►
where they just tried to hide all signs of the desktop,
01:24:00
◼
►
even though it was there and greatly improved.
01:24:05
◼
►
Yeah, so the Surface Pro 2, basically I've been using it
01:24:08
◼
►
almost exclusively as if it were a laptop.
01:24:13
◼
►
But it is kind of nice when I'm on the plane,
01:24:17
◼
►
I can just detach the keyboard from it and set it down
01:24:19
◼
►
and watch a movie on it.
01:24:22
◼
►
I think the goal of those hybrid devices,
01:24:25
◼
►
the theoretical goal is that instead of having to carry
01:24:29
◼
►
a MacBook and an iPad, you can just carry one
01:24:33
◼
►
and it becomes, it changes personality to suit
01:24:38
◼
►
the task that you have.
01:24:40
◼
►
- I'm laughing because that's what the trip is.
01:24:42
◼
►
- Of course.
01:24:43
◼
►
- MacBook Air.
01:24:44
◼
►
- Yeah, and so the idea is that if you had an iPad
01:24:48
◼
►
that could magically run OS X and had a keyboard
01:24:55
◼
►
attached to it, then you take it off and it's running iOS.
01:25:00
◼
►
- So what did you have in the keynote
01:25:02
◼
►
when you were in the keynote hall?
01:25:05
◼
►
Were you using a laptop or were you--
01:25:07
◼
►
- I was using the Surface primarily because it has,
01:25:11
◼
►
One of the things they fixed in version two that made it better than version one is this
01:25:14
◼
►
thing called the type cover.
01:25:16
◼
►
The thing that clicks in and it has an illuminated keyboard.
01:25:20
◼
►
And it's usable on a lap?
01:25:22
◼
►
Because that's why I ask.
01:25:24
◼
►
Well, first of all, the press, they gave us tables.
01:25:28
◼
►
Oh, they never give us tables.
01:25:30
◼
►
They gave us tables and wired Ethernet connections and I think there was like free beer and everything.
01:25:41
◼
►
But no, but I have been using that on,
01:25:45
◼
►
with the type cover, it actually does work on your lap
01:25:48
◼
►
as a laptop.
01:25:49
◼
►
With the first version, the first edition,
01:25:52
◼
►
which only had one stop for the little hinge
01:25:54
◼
►
that comes out from the back there,
01:25:57
◼
►
you sort of had to play statue.
01:26:00
◼
►
If you sit just right and you don't move,
01:26:05
◼
►
you could actually type on this thing,
01:26:06
◼
►
but it was, it flexed and it wasn't a company,
01:26:10
◼
►
and it wasn't a comfortable experience, this is more so.
01:26:13
◼
►
It actually feels a lot like a laptop.
01:26:16
◼
►
But if I'm at home, I will either have a tablet,
01:26:20
◼
►
which could be a Windows tablet or an iPad,
01:26:24
◼
►
if I'm sitting on the couch, or a notebook.
01:26:27
◼
►
I won't use the Surface in that mode.
01:26:32
◼
►
- I haven't heard a word you've said
01:26:33
◼
►
in the last three minutes, 'cause all I can keep thinking
01:26:34
◼
►
about is how nice it would be to have a table.
01:26:37
◼
►
(audience laughing)