24: It’s Like Drug Money, with Glenn Fleishman
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I have a question. This is the type of thing. This is why I need to hire a staff because
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if I had a staff, I wouldn't have to ask you this.
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But it's a protocol question. I want to get the protocol. You know, like when you
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meet the Queen of England, there's a, it's a very complicated protocol. Well, I want
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to get this protocol right now. Do I introduce you as Jeopardy champion Glenn Fleischmann
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or do I introduce you as two-time Jeopardy champion Glenn Fleischmann?
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I think, I think just Jeopardy champion because otherwise it's bragging.
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Ah, gotcha. All right.
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'Cause it's okay to win, but then you're sort of rubbing it in someone's nose.
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What's fun is I think I threaded the needle neatly, 'cause I think I was a pretty good player,
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not a fantastic player, but I was between two seven-day champions, it turned out.
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So I met both of them. I met the outgoing one who lost just before I did, and I met the incoming
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one who won just after I did. And I think both of them would have completely cleaned my clock,
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because they had superb buzzer timing and some better domain knowledge that plays in Jeopardy.
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So I got very lucky, I think.
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Wait, but did you beat the seven,
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are you the one who knocked
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the incoming seven-time champion off though?
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- No, this is what was perfect.
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Stephanie Yoss lost because, see I have another name,
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so it's like a little family.
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So she won, she comes in, we get in there,
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I'm there on a Tuesday and Wednesday for taping.
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So I go in Tuesday morning and they're like,
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"Oh, well welcome Stephanie Yoss,
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our five-time returning champion."
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And we all look at each other and go, "Oh shit."
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Right, like we have to deal with this person.
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So she plays two games, I tape five games a day.
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She plays two games.
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she, the third game she plays, which was not against me, the Final Jeopardy question was
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ridiculous. And even those of us in the audience, they put all the contestants in the audience
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afterwards, like we would have gotten it wrong. It was asking for the country that had the largest
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state that would have been like the sixth largest country in the world if it was a country.
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And Stephanie wrote like Outer Mongolia, she didn't know. Someone else wrote Uttar Pradesh,
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which is the correct state. The question was asking for the country. So the winner was sort
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of a fluke. She won in Final Jeopardy! of India, then I beat this lovely woman named Meredith,
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then I won twice. Next morning I come back and I won shows four or five that day.
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Come back the next morning and I lose the first game because I'm just fried. The woman who beat
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me, she wins one more game and she loses to the next seven-day champion. Keith Whitener,
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very nice guy also.
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Gotcha. Yeah, I imagine that it is like a typical power law distribution where everybody,
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Everybody who gets on the show is good. I mean, it's, you know, the qualifying process is enough
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that everybody who gets on is pretty good. Even someone who ends up not doing too well in an
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episode is probably a pretty good, you know, Neighborhood Trivia champion.
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They winnow a lot. So, right, the people who get there should really be able—I mean,
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the game mechanics of being, you know, on a stage and sort of confronting with that,
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that might get you. But yeah, everyone knows, you know, a lot of stuff. So, yeah, so I was with the
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outliers are the thing. They do a lot of stuff in the game now to prevent people who win from
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keeping winning by giving them better training. So giving a new contestant better training. So
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we get there's more rehearsal, there's more buzzer practice and all that. And that's leveled things
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out since Ken Jennings. But I was between two people who wound up being the number 14 and
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number 15 all time money winners on Jeopardy. Right.
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- Which is a long history.
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- It's right. They used to give away a lot less money, but they didn't give away a lot of money
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for a long time. So I'm not, you know, I'm like the number 220th all-time winner out of every
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people. I'm happy with it. It's because they give away more money. So even in a basic game,
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one more. But like, so I was between two outliers. Like these people are actually, you know, 97th,
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99th percent Jeopardy players. And I'm like 85th percent Jeopardy player or 80th percent. So I'm
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like, this is okay. I want some money. I'm happy. But it was, it was funny. It was funny. And they're
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both nice people too. And they'll be back for Tournament of Champions. So you gotta watch them
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them kill each other. How many do you have to win five to get on tournament champions?
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Three, but then there's a threshold of money and at this point someone keeps a tally of it. Looks
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like you have to win at least $50,000. It was minimum three games, but at least $50,000 now
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to get in given how well people have done. So it'll be a pretty fierce competition, I think.
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For the all-time rankings, they should inflation adjust it. And it's,
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because I think what they did is they doubled the money at some point in the last 10 years.
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Yeah, they've done it twice. Art Fleming was one thing, and they came and brought the
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series back. And I think it used to be like, I don't know, the top money you could win.
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It was hard to win more than several thousand dollars.
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But there's a baseline.
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And now people routinely, yeah.
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The baseline, let's just call it X, is the first round, you know, now what is it, like
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200 bucks? It used to be $100 on the Alex Trebek one. But that should just be called
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X, and then whatever you win has to be a multiple of X.
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I agree, because then it's right. It's sort of like movie earnings, too. Is Snow
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or Sleeping Beauty or, I don't know, Fantasia? There's some movie that was—it's still
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current dollars, some billions of dollars it made.
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It might be Gone with the Wind, I think.
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It's one of those, "Gone with the Wind! That cost me thousands of dollars in Jeopardy!"
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No! It's the final Jeopardy question I missed.
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I think it might be—I'm not trying to torment you here, but I do—I believe that
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inflation adjusted if you just count tickets sold. Instead of counting dollars, just count
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how many people put their butts in the seat to see the theater. I think it was gone with
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No, I think that's it. So you look at prices of stamps, you look at gasoline, and people
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are like, "Stamps cost a ridiculous amount." It's like, "No, just for inflation, postage
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is the cheapest it's been practically since Benjamin Franklin," or whatever. And gasoline
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is actually, it's expensive, but it's not that expensive compared to the 1970s right
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now. I just paid $3.69. So yeah, people don't like math.
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Yeah. And well, the thing with the movies is that the movie industry is such a cutthroat,
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I'm on top right now thing that nobody has any interest in remembering how popular Jaws
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was, right? It's really just, you know, like whatever was the most popular movie of the
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last six months is really all that matters and that's all anybody wants to promote. But
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it's like if you look back and see that Jaws grossed $300 million or $175 million or whatever,
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but then realize that first run movie tickets were like a buck fifty, it's, you know, it's
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I remember when I paid, I went to the first THX sound movie that I ever went to was Robocop.
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They just opened a new theater in Eugene, Oregon. And I paid, oh, I don't know, it seemed like a
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crazy amount. Was it $5 in 1984 or something? It seemed obscene. Or was it $4.50? And I was like,
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oh my God, it was, then, you know, I just went and paid $11 in something. And I think that's actually
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cheap in inflationary terms relative to what I paid for that.
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I do. It's a rite of passage in the United States that eventually it's when you become
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a full-fledged adult is when you're outraged by the price of a movie ticket.
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That's right.
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Right? And I remember being a teenager and hearing my dad complain about movie ticket prices. And I
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just remember thinking, "Well, that's just proof that you're an old man. You're out of touch." Now
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it's my turn.
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I was trying to explain inflation to my kids, my five-year-old and eight-year-old, and they can
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sort of get some of it. And I had this experience not that long ago. So the oatmeal guy does that
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cartoon. He raised over $200,000 despite a douchebag who was suing him over something
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that was ridiculous. And he lives in town. I said, "Oh, I talked to my Boing Boing editor."
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I'm like, "Can I go cover this?" And sure. So I call a fellow who does oatmeal, a really nice guy,
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and Matthew. And he's like, "Yeah, come on down." And so it's me and him and this friend of his
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who's packing some heat, he's got a license, and helped him pick up the money. And his girlfriend
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and his mother. His mother does all his packaging, like sends all the mugs out and the t-shirts up
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from a small town in Washington. So we're in this room with like hundreds of thousands of dollars.
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Like, "Hey, you want to help?" I'm like, "Sure." And so I'm handling, you know, it's like drug
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money. It's like these big bundles of $20. And you don't understand how truly ridiculous money is.
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- Why was it in cash?
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- He wanted to take, he spelled out F-U and douchebag in cash to send to this lawyer. He
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said, "I'm going to take pictures of this money that I raised that I'm sending to charity." So
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So he took it all to the bank, made pictures out of it, just put it on the floor in bundles,
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took pictures, and then put the money back in the bank and dispersed it to the charities.
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And it was just a big FU.
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But you handle cash, and the absurdity of money as a system, a very symbolic part of
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our economy, is even worse when you handle large amounts of it.
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It doesn't matter if it's yours or not.
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You're looking at it, you're like, "What does this mean?
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It's all this printed paper.
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This is a huge amount of cash, and it just seems even more absurd than it already is.
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You would really do, though.
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I've met you several times at conferences.
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You instantly come across as a very trustworthy man.
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Like, I'm not surprised.
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I don't think that if I had been writing that story, I don't think I would have been
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invited to help count the cash.
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It was very nice.
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I had his friend there.
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He's packing.
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I'd met him before, but still, we weren't great buddies or anything.
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He's a good guy.
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And I was like, "This is, you know, like we're in a small room, whatever.
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It's awfully nice that you trust that I'm gonna
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Hundreds of thousands of dollars in my hands, right? I've had that experience
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Secondhand like just not with what was in my hands, but watching other people were in casinos where?
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Like I've gone by the high limit baccarat rooms and
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Like it Bellagio and you can just look in and see and you see that guys are playing with yellow chips and yellow chips are
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25,000 each and they're just putting out stacks of them. I mean, I don't you know to the point where you can't even
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Clearly count them, you know where it's easily 25 30 35 thousand dollars a bet and then I just think well
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That's that to me is an insane. I would die would die of a heart. I like to gamble
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I you know, I'm not averse to gambling but if I had
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$35,000 in front of me on a play of cards, I would have a heart attack and die
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Well, here's the thing. We can do a callback now, which is some there on Jeopardy! And
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I'm like, "I'm going to bet everything. I'm going to come push my ships all in."
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I bet $5,000. But I had this great conversation with an IBM scientist recently who had worked
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on the Watson team that won at Jeopardy! in 2011. And there's all this discussion about
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the natural language processing that Watson did. And they had like, dozens of scientists
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worked on this for four years. I mean, IBM put millions and millions of dollars for the
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the staff time in addition to tens or hundreds of millions of computer resources because
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they have all these interesting things they're going to do with it now. But they thought
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Jeopardy was the right challenge. It makes a big splash. It's good marketing, but it's
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a great challenge, right?
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So natural language processing, it was astonishing that it did as well as it did. But he was
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working on the wagering side of it.
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And how you—so they would take the output, like the question would come—or the clue
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would come up, the subsystems that did all that would, you know, incredibly rapidly have
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to process it before it rang in, it would produce a confidence score instantly and keep
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refining it. I mean, it was constantly processing. And the confidence score would let it choose
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whether to wager. And then it also was used to pick which the daily doubles might be under
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because they placed them not—it's not even pseudo-random, they're placed traditionally
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in certain places, and so you can predict them. And so by their wagering simulation
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of other players to test the system
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and pre-selecting where using Bayesian analysis
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and other things where the daily double square might be,
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they dramatically improved the odds of winning.
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And so the natural language processing was very impressive,
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but the wagering part was actually,
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they did all these Monte Carlo simulations.
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They're like, we don't believe the average Jeopardy player
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will be familiar with the, what's the guy,
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the John, the movie about a fellow who is mentally ill,
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made the movie about the statistician, mathematician.
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I like that I think of that.
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I know what you mean. It was a Ron Howard movie.
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Yeah, so we don't think that every Jeopardy player is going to have Monte Carlo simulations
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running in their head. But all the simulation of wagering and strategy by other people,
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by analyzing the archive of all the wagers and decisions people have made throughout the entire
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history of Jeopardy, affected it. And they made weird bets, like on Daily Doubles,
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Wats made weird bets. And I'm like, I read this paper and I said, oh, I would change my strategy.
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and the scientists said, this guy, Gerald Sorrow, said he'd worked previously in backgammon and
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making backgammon simulations that could win or systems that could beat human players. And he said,
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in every game, like chess, backgammon, bridge, whatever, which the computers finally improve on
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and can beat the masters in the games, people start playing the game differently because they
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understand that the way they're playing it isn't as efficient and doesn't have the same odds of
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probability of winning as the way a computer plays it without any of those constraints.
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Jared "Seth" Kelsky Right. And without any sort of fear.
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Pete "Seth" Kelsky Right. Or the computer says,
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"I'm 97% confident of the answer, so I'm gonna wager, you know, $73,000."
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There was one player, there was one human player in Jeopardy, Roger Craig, who was a number four
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money winner and won the Tournament of Champions in 2011. And he would do this thing where he would
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double down, double down, double down. He won $77,000 in one day. He did that thing of pushing
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all the markers forward. The 77,000 is the most won by anybody on Jeopardy ever in one day. I
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think Ken Jennings had a 75 grand day in one day because he would do that. He'd be like, "You've
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got 37,500 dollars. What are you going to do?" And he's like, "I'm going to wager it all."
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And it's like, "Oh my God, really? Really?" And he'd do it. And that's hard to do. It's real money.
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Ted: And the funny thing is that actually is, I think, it's a very simple game overall,
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Jeopardy! But I think that the Daily Doubles is just the right amount of, like, a wildcard. It's
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like an asterisk in the game that makes it a game. And the truth is, on your first day, the day you
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won, your opponent had a lead that it could have been insurmountable going into Final Jeopardy!
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Could have been unbeatable, but she wagered enough on a Daily Double and lost to give you a chance.
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Yeah, this is, it's a heartbreaking moment which has been preserved on YouTube. Someone's posted
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about three minutes of it. And I didn't realize when playing the game until I watched it. We had
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a viewing party, had a bunch of people at a sports bar and were watching and I'm like, "Oh my God,
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she could have won." I had no idea because it's so fast. The average question goes by, they do
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a new question every 12 seconds, I think, in some of the research shows. So, you know, you're in
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there and there's a display you can look up to the left of the big board. You can see like a little
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LCD display of the three player scores. You can glance up there while you're playing when you're
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figuring out strategy. And so in the heat of the moment, if she'd had a minute to think about it,
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she would have bet $5, which is technically the lowest daily double bet. Instead, she bet $1,200.
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And that was the craziest question. The answer was dendrochronology.
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Oh my God, the poor woman. Yeah. So she, right. So she had twice, more than twice as much as I did,
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could have breezed in and won.
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She went right from just over twice what you had to just under twice what you had. And the daily
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double was right at the end, and so she had no chance to get another question to go back
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up more than double. And so then—
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Pete: Exactly. There was one more, and that was it. Didn't get the last two thousand
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John: No, watching at home, I recognized it instantly, because I was really, you know,
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obviously I was rooting for you.
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Pete Thank you.
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John Thank you. You know what I mean? You wouldn't be on the talk show if you were
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one-time Jeopardy! loser Glenn's question.
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Pete I know. It's like, there's nothing like, but yeah, it's that you, in the moment—
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John I was real nervous, and I thought, "Oh, she's gonna do…" and then I thought,
00:15:00
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"Oh, bet a lot," and then she did bet a lot, and I was like, "Oh, give her an impossible
00:15:03
◼
►
question and then they gave her an impossible question. I was like, "Oh."
00:15:05
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Pete: It was a ridiculous question. Like, this 13 letter word, you're like, "Oh, come on."
00:15:09
◼
►
Of course, I was watching it, one of my friends who was at the viewing party,
00:15:12
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►
his dad was a forester and he says, "Dendrochronology." Like, "Oh my god!"
00:15:15
◼
►
Brian Stearns- Yeah, you never know because it's, you know, somebody knows the answer.
00:15:19
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►
Pete: Free-ring science. But it's funny, and then we go into the final Jeopardy! That came in.
00:15:24
◼
►
This is a great thing about, one of the things that playing a game show about knowledge
00:15:27
◼
►
teaches you is there's, Bob Harris wrote this great book called Prisoner of Trebekus-Bentan
00:15:32
◼
►
about his—he won five times back when he could only win five times. Then he came back and they
00:15:36
◼
►
brought him on to like four tournaments because he's one of the most interesting, nicest guys.
00:15:40
◼
►
He's got a new book coming out about micro—not micro-investing, but micro-loans. And he's been
00:15:45
◼
►
traveling along the world meeting with people that he's loaned money to over Kiva, and it's—he
00:15:51
◼
►
sent me an advance copy. It's really cool. He's a really neat guy, but he wrote this great book
00:15:55
◼
►
that's kind of a memoir and kind of full of strategy about playing the game. And there's
00:15:59
◼
►
this difference between known knowledge and inferred knowledge, and I don't think I understood
00:16:03
◼
►
that as much until I played the game. The final question on day one, the Final Jeopardy, was about
00:16:09
◼
►
a city, the city, Hemnitz, Germany, had a different name from 1953 to 1990. Or 1933 to, no, yeah,
00:16:17
◼
►
1953 to 1990. What was it? And I'm like, well, you know, and I don't know the answer. I don't know
00:16:22
◼
►
the answer. And I know the other two players, and I sort of know what they know, what they're
00:16:25
◼
►
playing the game. And I'm like, "I studied German for years in college." I'm like,
00:16:30
◼
►
"I know Chemnitz is a German city. That's not a problem. I know the wall fell in 1990,
00:16:34
◼
►
and I'm doing this Rastiosh nation. You're like, 'The Germans hated Stalin, so it's not after
00:16:39
◼
►
Stalin. Lenin was a Russian. There's already Leningrad.'" I'm like, "It has to be Karl Marx."
00:16:43
◼
►
But I don't know that, and the sensation of inferred knowledge is weird. And then I get the
00:16:48
◼
►
relief, "Yeah, that's it, and you got enough money." And I'm like, "Okay."
00:16:49
◼
►
- But did they want the city name or who it was named after?
00:16:51
◼
►
- They wanted who it was named after. The city was named after. The city of Chemnitz.
00:16:53
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►
- What was the city?
00:16:54
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►
It's Karl Marxstadt, which no one remembers.
00:16:56
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►
Yeah, see, I wouldn't know the name of the city, but in hindsight, my guess was Stalin,
00:17:01
◼
►
and I thought, "You're right. This is why you're on Jeopardy! winning and I'm
00:17:04
◼
►
at home losing." I knew—
00:17:06
◼
►
The Germans hate Stalin.
00:17:07
◼
►
Yeah, the inferred knowledge, I knew from the years that it had to be communist-related.
00:17:12
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►
That's when—
00:17:14
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►
That's when, you know, that the Russians took control over half of Germany after World
00:17:17
◼
►
War II, and that's when they lost it. And so I thought, "Well, I don't know, Stalin."
00:17:23
◼
►
that's just as far as I thought. And then you're smart enough to think, well, they hate—the Germans
00:17:28
◼
►
hated Stalin, and, you know, maybe the Russians couldn't impose that on them. And so, of course,
00:17:33
◼
►
you go back, you embiggen the scope and go right back to the, you know, the granddaddy of communism
00:17:38
◼
►
and you go to Karl Marx. But you're staying there in that quantum state. You're in a Schrodinger—this
00:17:43
◼
►
is what we called the incomparable episode, it was the Schrodinger's cat box because you're sitting
00:17:46
◼
►
there in a state of which you don't know if you've won or lost because you don't affirmatively know
00:17:52
◼
►
that it's accurate. You can only deduce it's accurate, so there's no way to know until
00:17:56
◼
►
someone provides affirmative knowledge that you're correct.
00:17:58
◼
►
I would have felt real good though if I had come up with Karl Marx. I would have been sitting
00:18:02
◼
►
there thinking it's got to be Marx. I was happy because I was like, I got one, you know,
00:18:06
◼
►
one chance. But yeah, it's funny. It's a funny game and people are strangely fascinated about it,
00:18:12
◼
►
even though a lot of people, everyone told me, "Yeah, I love Jeopardy! I haven't watched it for
00:18:16
◼
►
10 years." Because people have cut the core, they don't do broadcast TV.
00:18:21
◼
►
if I didn't have the viewing party, I think half the people there wouldn't have been able to watch
00:18:24
◼
►
it at home because they don't have a form of television or access to cable or whatever.
00:18:29
◼
►
Pete: Yeah. Have I, I forget if we talked about this online or not, but have I explained to you
00:18:34
◼
►
my theory of, and I don't even think it's a theory, but I think it's so short. Why does
00:18:39
◼
►
Jeopardy! come on before Wheel of Fortune, not vice versa?
00:18:42
◼
►
Pete; In my market, it comes on after.
00:18:45
◼
►
Pete; Oh, does it?
00:18:45
◼
►
Pete; Just destroys your theory.
00:18:46
◼
►
Pete; It varies by market. What's your theory though?
00:18:49
◼
►
Because Wheel of Fortune makes you feel smart and Jeopardy makes you feel dumb.
00:18:53
◼
►
Yeah, and it doesn't make you feel too dumb. They're always striking a balance there. I was
00:18:59
◼
►
watching… The secret to Wheel of Fortune's popularity is that the optimal strategy is not
00:19:06
◼
►
to solve the puzzle as soon as you can. It's to keep racking up money once you know the answer to
00:19:12
◼
►
the puzzle and get a big dollar symbol and pick the T, which you know that there's three of.
00:19:17
◼
►
of. And so, in the meantime, the audience has all of this way more time to figure out
00:19:21
◼
►
what the puzzle is.
00:19:22
◼
►
Darrell Bock Oh, no, you're right. That's exactly—it's
00:19:24
◼
►
a perfect—right, because the players want to keep it going as long as they can, as long
00:19:28
◼
►
as they have money on the board. But Jeopardy, you don't have time. It comes up. But they
00:19:32
◼
►
play this balancing game. I was watching one night and they did a category about—because
00:19:36
◼
►
I watched obsessively after I got the call that I was going to be on, and I went back
00:19:39
◼
►
and read archives and so forth. And they had a category. It was all about Huguenots. And
00:19:43
◼
►
I'm like, "Really? All about Hukonauts?" And the player's there. I mean, even Alex,
00:19:47
◼
►
who's from Canada. Alex Trebek is like, "I think no one got any of the answers right."
00:19:53
◼
►
And you're like, "Really about Hukonaut?" I mean, it's a little obscure. You know,
00:19:57
◼
►
that's, you know, dendrochronology might be bad, but you've got to have stuff that
00:20:00
◼
►
people at home feel like they could have known, even if they don't know it.
00:20:04
◼
►
Eric Michael Rhodes All right, let me take a break here and talk
00:20:05
◼
►
about our first sponsor. It's great. I'm so happy about both sponsors today. I'm
00:20:10
◼
►
about all of our sponsors every week, but today in particular. Because first sponsor,
00:20:15
◼
►
we've got Tonks back on board. Now, you know Tonks, Glenn. This is kind of amazing.
00:20:19
◼
►
Darrell Bock I just talked to Tonks. I just got a delivery
00:20:22
◼
►
of Tonks coffee. I can even tell you about what it's like.
00:20:25
◼
►
John Green That's me taking a sip. I'm drinking
00:20:28
◼
►
Tonks coffee right now. Tonks is a small company, and you sign up, they send fresh beans to you from
00:20:35
◼
►
all over the world and the coffee is just great. And here's the things they want me
00:20:42
◼
►
to tell you. Number one, they want you to know that contrary to what you might think
00:20:45
◼
►
going to a coffee shop and the barista makes some kind of latte and then the milk ends
00:20:51
◼
►
up looking like the Mona Lisa and you think, well, good coffee is impossible. Guess what?
00:20:55
◼
►
Making great coffee, like serious world-class great cup of coffee in your own kitchen is
00:21:00
◼
►
super simple. Some of the best ways to make coffee are so simple it'll blow your mind.
00:21:04
◼
►
Get great beans, burr grind them,
00:21:07
◼
►
just pour hot water over it into a filter
00:21:09
◼
►
and you've already got a great cup of coffee.
00:21:12
◼
►
The guys from Tonks find the best coffee beans
00:21:15
◼
►
from the top producers literally all over the world.
00:21:20
◼
►
They nail the roast and they get them in your mailbox
00:21:22
◼
►
at the peak of freshness.
00:21:23
◼
►
And they send them, I love their envelopes, the packages.
00:21:27
◼
►
I think they, everything about these guys to me is
00:21:30
◼
►
if you set out to, this is what I'm thinking,
00:21:33
◼
►
is if you set out to make the best coffee company
00:21:36
◼
►
in the world, you'd come up with something like Tonk.
00:21:39
◼
►
Maybe not the biggest, certainly not the biggest.
00:21:41
◼
►
I don't think Tonk's is as big as Starbucks.
00:21:44
◼
►
I don't know.
00:21:45
◼
►
It might be close.
00:21:46
◼
►
I'm talking the best.
00:21:47
◼
►
If your goal is to set out to do the best coffee
00:21:50
◼
►
in the world, you'd come up with something like Tonk's.
00:21:53
◼
►
Grape beans, everything about them.
00:21:55
◼
►
I love the packages that their things come in.
00:21:58
◼
►
Just the little Ziploc seal is, I don't know.
00:22:01
◼
►
With a lot of bags with Ziploc, I often have a hard,
00:22:03
◼
►
it takes me like three zips to get it.
00:22:05
◼
►
With the Tonks one, always first one.
00:22:07
◼
►
- And it's transparent, so you can see the beans, it comes,
00:22:09
◼
►
and you're looking at the beans,
00:22:10
◼
►
and it's got a neat little silkscreen message
00:22:13
◼
►
about what's in there, and a little note about it.
00:22:16
◼
►
But I don't feel like they're fussy or fey about it.
00:22:18
◼
►
It's like they love their coffee,
00:22:21
◼
►
they have no attitude about the coffee.
00:22:22
◼
►
What they're doing is they're producing
00:22:23
◼
►
something really good.
00:22:25
◼
►
They're not my sponsor, they're your sponsors,
00:22:26
◼
►
I can talk about them unbiasedly.
00:22:28
◼
►
They produce something that's really,
00:22:30
◼
►
that's like a delicious product
00:22:32
◼
►
that's designed to be consumed,
00:22:33
◼
►
but they're not coffee cra,
00:22:35
◼
►
I mean, they're crazy in the sack
00:22:36
◼
►
that they're interested in it,
00:22:37
◼
►
but it's not the, you need to get a $10,000 espresso machine
00:22:41
◼
►
and spend a week in Italy learning how to do it.
00:22:43
◼
►
It's like, you know, you can use an AeroPress.
00:22:45
◼
►
You could use a $5 espresso machine.
00:22:46
◼
►
You could use a $100 espresso machine.
00:22:48
◼
►
The burr grinder, I think, is critical, though.
00:22:50
◼
►
That's what I keep hearing, and I support that.
00:22:53
◼
►
You want a burr grinder.
00:22:54
◼
►
That's where you put the money,
00:22:55
◼
►
but then after that, you make it other way.
00:22:57
◼
►
You make it any way you want.
00:22:57
◼
►
- Right, and you get a good one, and it'll last you forever.
00:22:59
◼
►
But it really is not, they're not asking you to put out a huge capital outlay on fancy
00:23:03
◼
►
equipment or time-consuming processes. And they also have tremendous customer service
00:23:09
◼
►
and a great website where you go there and they have videos and things about, you know,
00:23:14
◼
►
just, here's how to make a great cup of coffee.
00:23:17
◼
►
Most of the things I like about them too is they don't want to grow too fast. That's
00:23:22
◼
►
why I was talking to them for another soon-to-be-announced Mule Radio Syndicate podcast I'm working
00:23:28
◼
►
Talking to them for that, so you'll hear this in December or something, my interview with
00:23:32
◼
►
And the thing is, they don't want to get big fast.
00:23:34
◼
►
They want to get big.
00:23:35
◼
►
That'd be great, right?
00:23:36
◼
►
They're not unambitious, but they aren't the like, we need to have a million customers,
00:23:41
◼
►
day one, social marketing, Facebook advertising, Twitter spam, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
00:23:46
◼
►
They like growing.
00:23:47
◼
►
They're growing well.
00:23:48
◼
►
They're getting great word of mouth.
00:23:49
◼
►
They're trying to scale it little by little so they don't have to deliver an inferior
00:23:55
◼
►
I love that.
00:23:56
◼
►
in my mind that their number one priority is best coffee in the world. And everything else is second.
00:24:02
◼
►
They want to be profitable. I'm sure they want to grow. Obviously, they want to grow. That's why
00:24:06
◼
►
they're sponsoring the show to get more talk show listeners to just give them a shot. Here's the
00:24:12
◼
►
last thing. A couple episodes ago, the last time they sponsored it, and I was talking about how
00:24:17
◼
►
they're literally all over the world, but I didn't have a list off the top of my head. Here's, they
00:24:21
◼
►
sent me this. They're in Africa. They've sourced beans from Kenya, Ethiopia. I'm drinking some
00:24:26
◼
►
stuff from Ethiopia right now. Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania. In Central America, they've sourced
00:24:32
◼
►
beans from Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, and in South America,
00:24:38
◼
►
Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru. So I'm telling you, literally all over the
00:24:43
◼
►
coffee growing world, these guys are getting the best beans. Here's how much they believe
00:24:47
◼
►
in it. Free trial. You just sign up. Go to tonx.org. T-O-N-X dot org. Sign up. You get a free
00:24:54
◼
►
trial. The beans will show up at your house in a couple of days, fresh sealed, and I'm telling you,
00:24:59
◼
►
you're going to try these beans and you're going to sign up and become a regular customer.
00:25:02
◼
►
Thanks to Tonx.
00:25:04
◼
►
Pete: It's good. It's good. I even ate some beans raw because they look so delicious.
00:25:09
◼
►
Ted, I do that. I definitely do.
00:25:10
◼
►
Pete It was good.
00:25:11
◼
►
Ted My son loves to eat a couple of coffee beans raw.
00:25:13
◼
►
Pete That's good.
00:25:14
◼
►
And I will also vouch. He didn't know. He has no idea that they're a sponsor of my show. I don't
00:25:19
◼
►
even think he knows I have a show. Whenever I make coffee, I'll say, "Hey, do you want a couple of
00:25:24
◼
►
beans?" And he'll take three or four coffee beans. And I gave him the Tonks ones, and he gave me,
00:25:28
◼
►
after he chewed the one, he gave me the—it was like the guy in Pulp Fiction, "Hey, that was
00:25:32
◼
►
pretty good." Like, that's good coffee. The Ethiopian ones were particularly beautiful
00:25:38
◼
►
color to this olive color. It's funny, I've never been like a fetishist of coffee, maybe
00:25:45
◼
►
more so for tea, but not even that. But I like something that tastes good and isn't
00:25:49
◼
►
bitter and has kind of a richness and is interesting and coming from the town of Starbucks.
00:25:53
◼
►
So here's the tonk story, by the way. So back in 2005, a colleague says, "Hey, there's
00:25:57
◼
►
a coffee shop in town that just opened up and they're turning Wi-Fi off on weekends.
00:26:00
◼
►
How crazy is that?" So New York Times, weirdly, one of the only direct assignments instead
00:26:05
◼
►
me pitching. They call me up and say, "Can you write a story about this thing?" So sure.
00:26:08
◼
►
So I go and I meet these owners, young idealistic owners who sold the business within a few years
00:26:12
◼
►
because running a coffee shop is a horrible, horrible business. They wanted to have a
00:26:18
◼
►
community place. And on the weekends with Wi-Fi on, people never talked. It was absolutely silent
00:26:22
◼
►
as a crip. They hated it, so they turned Wi-Fi off for the weekends. So I write a story about it,
00:26:27
◼
►
gets some really interesting play, and some other places also start turning Wi-Fi off. It's never
00:26:32
◼
►
really a trend, but it's interesting. So the guy roasting for them is Tony Canesny, the Tonks. And
00:26:37
◼
►
I do my first copying, I go there, he shows me how you do copying in the back and I get to taste all
00:26:42
◼
►
this great coffee. And then the guy is, you know, he's a, I think what's the opposite of a bad
00:26:46
◼
►
penny, he's like a good penny. He just keeps turning up wherever there's good coffee, turns
00:26:50
◼
►
up again and again and again, and it turns out everyone in the world knows Tonks.
00:26:53
◼
►
Pete: What is the opposite of a bad penny? I don't know.
00:26:56
◼
►
Pete: It's a great penny. He's a shiny penny.
00:26:58
◼
►
Pete; Right.
00:26:59
◼
►
But a very nice guy, and he's always had the same commitment to it. And you know,
00:27:02
◼
►
it's coffee is a great story because it spans the globe and it spans this huge stretch of
00:27:07
◼
►
modern civilization and you can just become such a fetishist about every little blah,
00:27:12
◼
►
you know, grain, whatever. Or you can just drink a good cup of coffee.
00:27:15
◼
►
I like the good cup of coffee part better.
00:27:18
◼
►
Pete: Yeah. You know, speaking of good pennies, you're sort of a good penny in that you've had a
00:27:25
◼
►
crazy variety. You've written for an inordinate and on a regular basis and inordinately wide
00:27:32
◼
►
variety of publications. You've just mentioned in New York Times. You're now a regular contributor
00:27:37
◼
►
to The Economist. You have been associated with tidbits as long as I can remember. Ever
00:27:45
◼
►
since Adam and Tanya expanded beyond just Adam and Tanya, I mean, I remember your byline
00:27:51
◼
►
being in tidbits. I mean, how long have you been writing for tidbits?
00:27:54
◼
►
like 1994 or something. I sent them a letter. I sent them a letter once and they ran it and I
00:27:59
◼
►
was so excited I started writing for them after I—they lived in Seattle when I first moved out here in
00:28:05
◼
►
I mean, we're talking about before the web. I mean, we're talking about when a lot of people
00:28:10
◼
►
were probably still reading tidbits as a weekly hypercard stack.
00:28:13
◼
►
Oh my god, those were the days. Yeah, tidbits is now—we believe it's the longest continuously
00:28:18
◼
►
published publication on the internet because there was an Irish newsletter that stopped
00:28:22
◼
►
publication. We think we're now the oldest one since like 1990 because there was one they've
00:28:27
◼
►
been watching. There was one in China that fell away. So in terms of actually coming out on a
00:28:31
◼
►
regular basis for, you know, X years, I think we are now the longest, which cracks us up.
00:28:37
◼
►
Ted: Oh, and it's astounding, really. I mean, to think that it, you know, the upheaval that
00:28:42
◼
►
it went through in the first decade, just in terms of format, you know, what is the format for an
00:28:47
◼
►
internet publication?
00:28:48
◼
►
Oh yeah, and like dealing with servers and email and then Apple, you know, essentially
00:28:52
◼
►
almost imploding underneath it and then coming back.
00:28:56
◼
►
And I mean the thing that's funny, so here's the best thing about Adam and Tonya Anx as
00:28:59
◼
►
people is they do a lot of what they do to help their friends make livings and do interesting
00:29:04
◼
►
They're really like facilitators.
00:29:05
◼
►
Like they make a great living with what they're doing.
00:29:07
◼
►
They figure out a really good model with the ebooks and with tidbits and so forth and they're
00:29:11
◼
►
charming people and great friends.
00:29:12
◼
►
But they also, they spend a lot of their time making sure that other people they work with
00:29:17
◼
►
have a good experience and can make a good living from what they do. And it's like,
00:29:21
◼
►
they're so non-greedy about it. It's just delightful.
00:29:24
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, it's amazing. Other publications that you have been associated with, you write for
00:29:29
◼
►
Boing Boing?
00:29:30
◼
►
Pete: That's right. I've been right occasionally from Ars Technica. And yeah, I got this funny
00:29:35
◼
►
thing is I like people, it's this weird thing, I like people. And I've been, I started my career
00:29:41
◼
►
because I was, I was actually trained as a graphic designer. First a typesetter, then a graphic
00:29:44
◼
►
designer was the career I was going to go into, but it turned out I've always had an aptitude
00:29:49
◼
►
for computers. So I wound up becoming this guy who's like a translator, like, "Oh, you graphic
00:29:54
◼
►
designer, you're trying to use desktop publishing. Well, let me explain the steps to get there." And
00:29:58
◼
►
that's just been kind of how my career goes. I mean, The Economist, I'm the guy where they're
00:30:02
◼
►
like, "We don't understand, nobody in-house understands or cares about networking protocols.
00:30:07
◼
►
Could Glenn write something about this?" And so I'll write something on the blog, or sometimes
00:30:11
◼
►
I'll pitch something about a topic that's really—they're interested in it, but it's
00:30:15
◼
►
really obscure to the staff members. They're science geeks. They have PhDs in physics and
00:30:20
◼
►
economics and everything else, but the technology side, they're not unfamiliar with it, but
00:30:23
◼
►
there are very few programmers in-house and so forth. So I get to be the explainer of
00:30:28
◼
►
certain aspects of tweaky digital things there too.
00:30:31
◼
►
Dave Asprey And your newest gig, which is,
00:30:34
◼
►
I guess, sort of where I've been coming with this, is you—I forget your title exactly,
00:30:39
◼
►
executive editor?
00:30:40
◼
►
Pete: Executive editor. Yeah, Marco and I had some conversations.
00:30:42
◼
►
Ted: Of the magazine, Marco Arment's Still Nascent, I think it's at issue number three,
00:30:49
◼
►
is the current issue.
00:30:50
◼
►
Pete; That's right. Number four is next week.
00:30:52
◼
►
Ted; Which is just, as soon as I saw the announcement, I was like,
00:30:56
◼
►
"Duh! Why didn't, I wish I had suggested this because this is such a perfect match and I want
00:31:01
◼
►
to be able to take credit for making this happen. This is such a perfect fit."
00:31:07
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, it feels, it fits in the Marco's wheelhouse too, where it's like Instapaper,
00:31:10
◼
►
it's like Instapaper except he's making the articles that you'll then read later.
00:31:14
◼
►
Justin: You're such the perfect fit though because you, you know, you have such a variety
00:31:19
◼
►
of interests, you know, you're not just, you know, you used to write, I think it's
00:31:23
◼
►
past tense, I don't think you'd keep it up anymore, the Wi-Fi blog.
00:31:26
◼
►
Pete; Oh yeah, that was interesting. I spent like a decade writing Wi-Fi networking news.
00:31:30
◼
►
Justin; Which was a blog that was all about Wi-Fi and you think, "Well, what the hell,
00:31:34
◼
►
is that? But it was great. It was like a decade of upheaval.
00:31:37
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, the community Wi-Fi and then all the standards changed, all the devices and
00:31:43
◼
►
incompatibilities, standards wars, and then city-wide Wi-Fi, municipal Wi-Fi, and 802.11n.
00:31:50
◼
►
And then what happened is, was this very interesting thing. I think it was, I think it was
00:31:54
◼
►
eight years, nine years into it, and suddenly all the interest in Wi-Fi disappeared because it just
00:31:58
◼
►
started to work. And the rise in good mobile broadband, like 3G had, you know, 3G was suddenly
00:32:05
◼
►
everywhere. 4G-ish standards, you know, HSPA+ and some of the faster 3G stuff was starting to get
00:32:11
◼
►
out there, and LTE was on the roadmap. And suddenly people didn't need to know about
00:32:15
◼
►
Wi-Fi anymore because they could just connect whenever they needed to. And the whole, the
00:32:19
◼
►
traffic just fell out the bottom, and which is fine. Things have a lifetime. But I was,
00:32:23
◼
►
I was sort of sitting there one day, I'm like, "I should stop doing this because no one's reading
00:32:27
◼
►
it anymore. It sort of reminds me of the equivalent to Matt Howie's PVR blog,
00:32:33
◼
►
which was wildly popular for a while. But then PVRs kind of became like indoor plumbing.
00:32:44
◼
►
Truly fascinating and life-changing, but then you just sort of assume that it's there. It's no
00:32:53
◼
►
no longer a big deal.
00:32:54
◼
►
Well, there's the implosion of the gadget blogs, too. That sort of happens. I mean,
00:32:58
◼
►
you still have, you know, The Verge is not a gadget blog. It's a general computing
00:33:02
◼
►
thing that's more like, you know, Macworld plus, you know, some of like a HiFi stereo
00:33:07
◼
►
publication plus a business publication. Or Gizmodo is no longer exactly a gadget thing,
00:33:13
◼
►
and neither is Engadget. They write about all kinds of stuff. And there's 100,000
00:33:17
◼
►
sites that used to, and some still update things that are about every little gee-jaw.
00:33:22
◼
►
And I think, and that's sort of what happened with Wi-Fi too, is like when stuff just works
00:33:26
◼
►
and there's a sufficient amount of it and you don't have to make the same kinds of
00:33:29
◼
►
decisions you used to about what you're going to get, then the necessity of going
00:33:33
◼
►
to sites—there's still people who obsessively check on every new thing that's coming out.
00:33:37
◼
►
But I think the lifespan of those has really expired in a way that they used to capture
00:33:41
◼
►
the attention in like 2003 to 2006, say. That's sort of passed by.
00:33:48
◼
►
I'm glad too.
00:33:49
◼
►
Yeah, it's, you know, I've often said to people that, you know, for a guy who started
00:33:55
◼
►
writing about Apple on his own site in 2002, I always thought if I did, I wouldn't pick
00:34:00
◼
►
a name that had the word Mac in it. And, you know, that was never really on the table,
00:34:04
◼
►
but it really, in hindsight, has turned out pretty well.
00:34:06
◼
►
No, and I think that's the thing. I think by not—the most interesting stuff that happens
00:34:11
◼
►
now is deliberative. And I think, you know, The Verge still publishes a lot of news, but
00:34:15
◼
►
I think, you know, one extreme you have maybe Business Insider or even Mashable where they're
00:34:20
◼
►
plowing out as much news as they can all the time.
00:34:22
◼
►
Some of it's, you know, I'd say Mashable.
00:34:24
◼
►
I like some of Mashable.
00:34:25
◼
►
Business Insider, let's say none of it's good, but they've got a business model.
00:34:29
◼
►
But then, you know, I've talked to Brian Lamb.
00:34:30
◼
►
I'm going to write something for his Wirecutter site.
00:34:32
◼
►
And he's one of the people at Gizmodo for years, really drove that frenzied pace.
00:34:37
◼
►
And now Wirecutter is like, it's the best stuff.
00:34:39
◼
►
Like really in-depth stuff.
00:34:41
◼
►
And it's like he's doing nothing changes on there from day to day until he posts a
00:34:46
◼
►
I mentioned a couple episodes ago, I forget who was on the show here with me, but we were
00:34:49
◼
►
talking about the Wirecutter and what a great site it is and comparing and contrast to Consumer
00:34:54
◼
►
Reports, which is really, really problematic.
00:34:57
◼
►
But they're trying to do the same thing, which is you need to buy a new TV.
00:35:05
◼
►
What's the best TV to buy?
00:35:07
◼
►
And you go to the Wirecutter and they just tell you, "Here's the best TV to buy."
00:35:10
◼
►
it. Just get this one. Or if you're, you know, and I'll give you like three options. Like,
00:35:14
◼
►
here's just the best big TV to buy. Here's the best one if you're on a budget. And, you know,
00:35:18
◼
►
here's the best one if you want a small TV. That's it. And that's all they tell you to do.
00:35:23
◼
►
And then I'll give you a link that'll explain there, you know, maybe why it's good.
00:35:27
◼
►
But that's it. There is no like eight by seven grid of features and check pluses and A minuses.
00:35:35
◼
►
And it's Apple-like in its simplicity. But I had coffee with Pete Rojas. He came through Seattle
00:35:42
◼
►
a few months ago, and I'd never met him in person, but we'd had correspondents for years. And he
00:35:46
◼
►
founded Gizmodo and then founded Engadget and then founded GDGT. I don't know how you're supposed to
00:35:52
◼
►
say Gidget. And so you can say he's responsible for all the horror, right? But I mean, it was
00:35:59
◼
►
different when he was involved. And each time he left, the publications transformed into something
00:36:03
◼
►
I think too, and the whole industry changed.
00:36:05
◼
►
But GDGT is, it's wire cutter like also.
00:36:09
◼
►
It's here's some really good information
00:36:11
◼
►
on a focus subject.
00:36:12
◼
►
We're not gonna bombard you
00:36:14
◼
►
because I think there's a limited audience.
00:36:16
◼
►
This is what's interesting about the live blog thing still.
00:36:17
◼
►
Like, you know, the fact that millions of people
00:36:20
◼
►
will tune into these live blog transcripts of Apple events.
00:36:24
◼
►
What are you gonna hear that's live that's not?
00:36:26
◼
►
I never understand that.
00:36:27
◼
►
Like, why can't you wait and someone writes an analysis
00:36:29
◼
►
or you could watch it yourself when the video is posted.
00:36:32
◼
►
But there are obviously a lot of people who are obsessed with the latest, newest, absolutely
00:36:36
◼
►
up to the second information. And then I think a much bigger audience. It's like, just
00:36:41
◼
►
give me the lay of the land. I don't need to read every last bit. Give me the information
00:36:44
◼
►
so I can make evaluative decisions.
00:36:46
◼
►
Dave: Exactly. No, I agree that. And I also think, yeah, I think it should be—and I
00:36:54
◼
►
try to do this. I always try to keep it in mind with what I do at Daring Fireball, that
00:36:57
◼
►
obviously there's some people who are loading the site multiple times throughout the day.
00:37:02
◼
►
But I always have in my mind somebody who's really busy, hopefully working on something
00:37:06
◼
►
really cool, and they're going to load it once at the end of the day just to see what
00:37:11
◼
►
happened. And I want the site, the home page, to read and make sense and sort of give you
00:37:15
◼
►
an overview of what you need to know. Did you miss anything today or is it just a bunch
00:37:19
◼
►
of goofy pictures of cats or something like that?
00:37:24
◼
►
Well, here's the thing. Do you use RSS anymore? Do you have an RSS reader?
00:37:26
◼
►
I do. I do. But I—
00:37:28
◼
►
How much compared to the way you did before?
00:37:30
◼
►
Very little. Twitter has really overtaken it to a large extent. I really—there's
00:37:35
◼
►
like a reckoning coming where I should really—I should wipe out all of my RSS subscriptions and
00:37:40
◼
►
start over from scratch and do it in a very different way where it would be more like,
00:37:44
◼
►
"Here's the dozen feeds that I don't—I know that I don't want to miss a thing."
00:37:48
◼
►
And no longer the, "Here's 100 feeds and I'm going to skim what's new to see what
00:37:55
◼
►
jumps out as breaking. Like, Twitter has really overtaken that as the—just what's going
00:38:03
◼
►
on right now? Am I missing something that's breaking?
00:38:05
◼
►
Alan Corey Yeah, Twitter is an aggregator. I mean, it's
00:38:09
◼
►
crowdsourced knowledge, and on average, if you follow people—I mean, it's sort of
00:38:13
◼
►
that funny thing. By figuring out who you follow, you only follow people who are interesting,
00:38:17
◼
►
you unsubscribe to them or you unfollow if they stop being interesting to you or overwhelm
00:38:21
◼
►
And so who's left are people who are likely to post things you're interested in, and you're going to see the same URL from a bunch of people, or they'll retweet it that they're interested in.
00:38:29
◼
►
So it's like, I don't, I still have RSS, I have hundreds of things in there, but a lot of them are like places where otherwise wouldn't go and they're just obscure enough.
00:38:37
◼
►
But I keep unsubscribing feeds in RSS because I'm like, I don't need the New York Times in my RSS. If there's an interesting article, I mean, they're going to see it when I visit the homepage at some point, or it'll show up 15 times in Twitter.
00:38:48
◼
►
- Yeah, I totally agree.
00:38:49
◼
►
It is, Twitter is sort of, Twitter works that way
00:38:53
◼
►
by doing, and I think you have to do both.
00:38:55
◼
►
You have to be willing to unfollow the people
00:38:57
◼
►
you no longer find interesting.
00:38:59
◼
►
You know, and don't think it's like,
00:39:02
◼
►
I don't have a Facebook account,
00:39:04
◼
►
but I understand though that like unfollowing
00:39:07
◼
►
or whatever they call it, somebody on Facebook
00:39:09
◼
►
is considered like rude.
00:39:11
◼
►
It is something you might take personally
00:39:14
◼
►
somebody is no longer friends with you on Facebook. Whereas to me, the follow and unfollow,
00:39:21
◼
►
you should never take that personally on Twitter. I don't care. People unfollow me because I'm
00:39:24
◼
►
tweeting about baseball or something like that. I don't care. That's fine. Come back in a month.
00:39:28
◼
►
You know, I don't care.
00:39:28
◼
►
I don't know if people have to tell you. People are like, "I'm going to unfollow you because
00:39:31
◼
►
I don't really care if you're following me or not." I don't. So, are you a Twitter reader or
00:39:36
◼
►
are you a Twitter scanner?
00:39:37
◼
►
What's the difference?
00:39:39
◼
►
Well, so people like my good friend Lex Friedman, he reads Twitter. He very carefully curates
00:39:45
◼
►
who he follows so the volume isn't too high. And he has to mute me at times because I go
00:39:49
◼
►
off as I do.
00:39:50
◼
►
No, I just skim. I skim.
00:39:52
◼
►
I'm a skimmer. Because I have like, I follow a thousand people and I dive in and out. I'll
00:39:56
◼
►
look, I'll scan a little bit, and then I'll go back to the, pin it up to the top and forget
00:40:00
◼
►
No, and it's, and it is also part of the brilliance of the concept of Twitter is the,
00:40:07
◼
►
and it's just one of the great examples in my mind of how not putting a feature in is design,
00:40:13
◼
►
and that's the lack of red/unread status. And in the early years, in 2006, 2007,
00:40:20
◼
►
the screaming from people who were RSS addicts who wanted red/unread status for tweets was,
00:40:28
◼
►
it was cacophonous, and Twitter didn't ignore it. They were like, "No, that's actually…"
00:40:34
◼
►
the point is not to have read unread. You're not supposed to see all the tweets. You just take a
00:40:38
◼
►
look at what's going on now and scroll back as, you know, a couple minutes if you want. And if
00:40:43
◼
►
you really want to see them all, that's up to you. And you'd keep scrolling down the timeline until
00:40:47
◼
►
you see the one that you know you saw last night. But we're not going to keep track of that for you,
00:40:51
◼
►
because we don't want to encourage that behavior.
00:40:53
◼
►
Pete: You run a poll sometime. I just, I've asked occasionally and formally,
00:40:57
◼
►
and I am stunned how many people among my followers say I read Twitter. And I'm like,
00:41:02
◼
►
But I think there's a little bit of OCD there, maybe.
00:41:06
◼
►
That's true.
00:41:07
◼
►
That's one reason.
00:41:08
◼
►
And I have that to some extent.
00:41:10
◼
►
Unread counts do make me anxious.
00:41:13
◼
►
So people are like, they can't just go to the top and ignore it.
00:41:15
◼
►
They might miss something.
00:41:16
◼
►
I mean, the internet is all about—the internet's motto is, "You might miss something."
00:41:21
◼
►
I do read all of my mentions.
00:41:24
◼
►
Maybe not religiously.
00:41:25
◼
►
I mean, there might be some days where if I'm busy or if I'm offline for most of
00:41:28
◼
►
the day for travel or something like that, that I won't. But in general, there's a very
00:41:34
◼
►
high chance that on a given day, any of my—I'm going to read all of my mentions. And they're
00:41:39
◼
►
certainly far more voluminous than a typical Twitter user, but it's actually not that
00:41:43
◼
►
hard to keep up with. Way easier than keeping up with email.
00:41:46
◼
►
Yeah, and I think that mentions are more like someone—I mean, it's like an email replacement.
00:41:51
◼
►
It's a 140-character email replacement. If someone bothers to do that, I feel like
00:41:54
◼
►
I should respond to them or acknowledge it because otherwise it's rude. I mean, you've
00:41:58
◼
►
a high asymmetry, too. That's the thing is you must get a lot of—I have interesting
00:42:02
◼
►
conversations with people about the scale of Twitter from 1,000 followers to 10,000,
00:42:07
◼
►
that sort of exponential thing up to people with several million. And it's fascinating
00:42:12
◼
►
how variable the interaction can be. Some people with very few followers spend all their
00:42:16
◼
►
time in mention land, and others with millions of followers, people are either too cowed
00:42:20
◼
►
or they just say like, "Hey, you're great," but there's no communication.
00:42:23
◼
►
- Right, I find it just to be super efficient
00:42:27
◼
►
and it forces people who want to contact me
00:42:31
◼
►
to be brief, right?
00:42:33
◼
►
It's, and in general, if you can keep your emails
00:42:37
◼
►
to within the general length of a tweet,
00:42:39
◼
►
it's a lot more likely that I'm going to read it
00:42:41
◼
►
and reply, but the interaction is so much easier
00:42:44
◼
►
because going through email, you have to select it
00:42:48
◼
►
and then it opens and it's just the whole thing.
00:42:52
◼
►
you just want to bring a link to my attention, like, "Hey, I can't believe Gruber hasn't
00:42:56
◼
►
linked to this yet. This is so obviously daring fireball material." It is way more likely
00:43:01
◼
►
that I will see it if you tweet to me than if you email it to me. And I don't, you
00:43:07
◼
►
know, because it's just an easier workflow. I just have to scroll through a list and eyeball
00:43:12
◼
►
them as opposed to clicking down through a list in and out, in and out, in and out.
00:43:15
◼
►
Well, attention is a precious commodity. I keep thinking, like, attention is the one
00:43:19
◼
►
thing you can't get more of. You can't build more of it. You have to allot it, and
00:43:24
◼
►
it's, you know, that's what Facebook is trying to buy our attention and sell it to
00:43:27
◼
►
other people. And another callback, I mean, this is the idea behind Marco's, the magazine,
00:43:34
◼
►
is that he's trying to not overwhelm people. And it's the same sort of philosophy with
00:43:38
◼
►
Instapaper too, is that it's, you want to read it, you're going to do it later out
00:43:41
◼
►
of the flow of your, sort of the maelstrom of all the stuff that's coming through.
00:43:46
◼
►
And I think that's one of the guiding things behind the magazine is like interesting stuff
00:43:50
◼
►
that you're not necessarily going to find everywhere else. And just enough, you know,
00:43:54
◼
►
it's, I mean, the magazine is always curation, but it's just enough that it'll be interesting
00:43:57
◼
►
enough to read every issue, but you won't feel like, "Oh, God." I mean, writing
00:44:01
◼
►
for The Economist, that's the thing I always hear is I know plenty of people who read it,
00:44:04
◼
►
but they think of it sometimes as homework. They have the issues piled up there. Again,
00:44:08
◼
►
you don't have to read everything. You can throw issues into the recycling. But people
00:44:12
◼
►
look at it as, "This is something I'm supposed to do," or they enjoy it too and
00:44:16
◼
►
they make the time for it. But I mean, I don't have time to read The Economist every week.
00:44:20
◼
►
I try to read a good hunk of it, but I, you know, I'm too busy.
00:44:22
◼
►
I feel like I don't have an Economist subscription, but I do have—I do subscribe to The New
00:44:27
◼
►
Yorker, and I feel that exact same way. Some days I come downstairs and I look in the mail
00:44:32
◼
►
and there's a new issue with The New Yorker, and I can't believe it because it seems
00:44:36
◼
►
like the other one just came yesterday. And I would have to say that the number one reason
00:44:41
◼
►
I'm not a subscriber to The Economist is simply because of how agitated I am by the
00:44:45
◼
►
gigantic pile of New Yorkers in my office.
00:44:48
◼
►
I got The New Yorker and The Economist, and I'm not sure that's a winning strategy
00:44:51
◼
►
for me. I should probably settle down. But you know, there's always—it's like there's
00:44:54
◼
►
always a long feature in The New Yorker that I love. I mean, the one thing—the thing—the
00:44:59
◼
►
reason I got into the magazine, by the way, the reason I pitched Marco on being the editor
00:45:03
◼
►
is because—I mean, A, I knew he's a technology guy. He's also a good editor. I liked how
00:45:08
◼
►
he edited the first two issues very much. But you know, there's this list of things
00:45:11
◼
►
he can do and the stuff he was able to offload a whole pile of stuff on to me so we can focus
00:45:16
◼
►
on the areas that he really likes to spend time. But the thing that appealed to me was
00:45:21
◼
►
his view of what the magazine is, there's nothing like that right now. You can't find
00:45:29
◼
►
a publication that wants to run articles that are of interest to people interested in technology
00:45:33
◼
►
that aren't either about technology or are maybe about medical technology. The New Yorker
00:45:37
◼
►
doesn't really run stories that are of interest to people who know something about technology,
00:45:42
◼
►
even when they're about it. And so I like the idea that we're going to have things that are
00:45:46
◼
►
have a human focus. You know, they might be about like, you know, Lex Freeman, for instance,
00:45:50
◼
►
article on wet shaving or Dan Moore and I making tea, that there are things that if you like tech,
00:45:55
◼
►
you're going to like to hear about things associated with it. I've got a friend who
00:45:59
◼
►
is a letterpress guy and he's a beautiful writer and I want him to write about what that means
00:46:04
◼
►
because people who are involved in electronics don't necessarily know the joy and interest
00:46:09
◼
►
and sort of the tweakiness of letterpress.
00:46:11
◼
►
Oh, I am so good at letterpress. It is unbelievable.
00:46:15
◼
►
Not that letterpress!
00:46:16
◼
►
What letterpress?
00:46:17
◼
►
The inky kind of letterpress. I had to quit letterpress. I can't—my win rate was about
00:46:25
◼
►
I would play—now, maybe I'm playing against people too hard. Maybe I should find easier
00:46:28
◼
►
players. Maybe all the people I know are much better wordy game stars than me.
00:46:33
◼
►
who did you play? Who did you find difficult? We never play. I never wound up playing you.
00:46:37
◼
►
- Everybody. Basically the Macworld editorial staff among other people and some other friends.
00:46:43
◼
►
It's funny. I know a million words. I've had rounds where I was playing with a friend, Sarah,
00:46:47
◼
►
and she wrote a poem out of the words we came up with because we had this great list of things,
00:46:53
◼
►
including some very dirty ones in the middle. Love the dirty words. But I couldn't win. I just,
00:46:58
◼
►
I don't have the strategy for it. I have the words, but I seem to like, and I played,
00:47:02
◼
►
I don't know about 60 games and I won like five of them and I thought this is probably not my game
00:47:07
◼
►
Maybe i'll come back to it
00:47:08
◼
►
But it's hard to always lose a game in the early part of the game being able to find the biggest words is the best
00:47:14
◼
►
Skill, but once you get to the middle of the game, it's it's all strategy and and you can win i'm not good at finding
00:47:20
◼
►
Wow, that's a great word words. I'm i'm most of my words are like third grade words
00:47:26
◼
►
But they're strategically placed
00:47:30
◼
►
Yes, well, I've seen some of your word lists, so post it on the Twitter.
00:47:35
◼
►
So we know the words.
00:47:36
◼
►
I love the letterpress.
00:47:37
◼
►
But back to the magazine. Here's the thing. The thing that makes you such a great fit,
00:47:45
◼
►
and it fits with this show that you're talking about doing, which is just the idea of
00:47:51
◼
►
how disintermediated can you get and just go back to the simplest thing economically that'll work.
00:47:58
◼
►
And look at the magazine. I mean, everybody knows that it gets a little complex here because the
00:48:03
◼
►
name of the magazine we're talking about is The Magazine. But the magazine industry in general is
00:48:11
◼
►
widely regarded as being in a period of upheaval and that there's, you know, it could be on the
00:48:16
◼
►
verge of collapse and that there's, you know, there's certain big, big ones that are probably
00:48:21
◼
►
going to do just fine just because they're, you know, The Economist and The New Yorker are
00:48:25
◼
►
certainly right there among them because of the quality of them.
00:48:27
◼
►
Yeah, the New Yorker has mostly been operated at a loss for most of its history. I'm not
00:48:31
◼
►
sure if it's profitable at the moment, but it has almost always been operated at a loss,
00:48:35
◼
►
is the fasting part. But people who run it, including Cy Newhouse now for the last X decades,
00:48:41
◼
►
they love it so much they just keep it running.
00:48:45
◼
►
The Economist, I would hope, just by the title is run at a profit.
00:48:48
◼
►
It's good. I think they've doubled their circulation in the last 10 years because they
00:48:51
◼
►
took away Time and Newsweek decided that stupid was better than smart, so they went stupid.
00:48:56
◼
►
I mean, Time was the thing that I read as a kid where you're like, and Newsweek was a slightly
00:49:00
◼
►
easier version of it, but it wasn't bad. And US News and World Report, I mean, that was often had
00:49:04
◼
►
incredibly good stuff in it. And, you know, lots of publications like that. Now you point to, like,
00:49:10
◼
►
the Atlantic and Harper's as the ex-impliers along with the New Yorker of a certain kind of style.
00:49:15
◼
►
But for Newsweek, he's like, "What do you read in America that's…" You know, so Time and Newsweek
00:49:19
◼
►
said the stupider the better, the more people we are without forgetting that we're news
00:49:23
◼
►
organizations that we could. And the Economist picked up all the subscribers who wanted to
00:49:26
◼
►
read something with words of three or more syllables in it occasionally.
00:49:30
◼
►
Tom Bilyeu (01h00m 5s): And you know, the scope of the magazine, at least right now,
00:49:33
◼
►
is less than the scope of those other magazines. We're talking right now so far three issues
00:49:38
◼
►
it's about. I think it's four or five articles per issue. Articles are somewhere around a
00:49:45
◼
►
thousand to fifteen hundred words. It seems to me, I don't know.
00:49:48
◼
►
- That's right, and the thing is, this is where,
00:49:51
◼
►
so this podcast I'm gonna do,
00:49:52
◼
►
which is tentatively titled The New Disruptors,
00:49:54
◼
►
the notion is that we've had tools to create stuff
00:49:57
◼
►
for decades now, I was involved
00:49:58
◼
►
in early desktop publishing, audio came after that,
00:50:02
◼
►
all the digital tools were in there to make things,
00:50:04
◼
►
and now you have digital tools that let you control
00:50:06
◼
►
and make 3D objects and CNC routers,
00:50:08
◼
►
and you can get a 3D printer in your house
00:50:11
◼
►
for a thousand bucks or less, much less even.
00:50:13
◼
►
So we're at the revolution where you have
00:50:15
◼
►
all the digital tools you need to create stuff,
00:50:17
◼
►
and the next wave is funding production,
00:50:21
◼
►
manufacturing, distribution,
00:50:23
◼
►
and that's where I keep seeing things
00:50:24
◼
►
like the magazine fits in that beautifully.
00:50:26
◼
►
It's like you still, you have to be in bed with Apple.
00:50:28
◼
►
They're taking a 30% cut.
00:50:30
◼
►
They're your distribution channel,
00:50:32
◼
►
but if you have an audience,
00:50:34
◼
►
you're not disremediated by a gatekeeper
00:50:37
◼
►
that says you're not allowed to reach that audience.
00:50:39
◼
►
Apple would be delighted for you
00:50:40
◼
►
to have 10 million people paying you
00:50:43
◼
►
so they can get 30% of it.
00:50:44
◼
►
As in the past where news stands,
00:50:46
◼
►
Getting a magazine on a physical newsstand,
00:50:49
◼
►
there's a lot of organized crime connections in the past.
00:50:51
◼
►
There's these placement fees.
00:50:53
◼
►
The reason magazines and newsstands cost like $7
00:50:56
◼
►
and this yearly subscription is like $20
00:50:58
◼
►
has to do with the incredible intermediation that adds cost.
00:51:03
◼
►
And so you take that one step further
00:51:05
◼
►
in digital distribution where you don't have to build
00:51:07
◼
►
the distribution platform, just the content and the medium.
00:51:11
◼
►
- Well, the other things too though
00:51:12
◼
►
that saddle traditional longstanding newspapers
00:51:15
◼
►
magazines are the incredible bureaucratic bloat of the organizations that took place over the
00:51:23
◼
►
20th century. I mean, I used to work at the Philadelphia Inquirer, not on the editorial
00:51:28
◼
►
staff but in the promotions department doing graphic design work a long time ago. But I got
00:51:34
◼
►
to know the company, and it was an interesting division of the newspaper to work in because,
00:51:40
◼
►
Effectively, we did the house ads,
00:51:42
◼
►
like ads for the inquirer itself,
00:51:44
◼
►
or if the automotive sales department,
00:51:48
◼
►
you know, the people who sell the car ads,
00:51:50
◼
►
needed like a flyer or something
00:51:52
◼
►
for a thing that they were doing,
00:51:54
◼
►
we would make that for them.
00:51:55
◼
►
So I got to know all these people throughout the company.
00:51:57
◼
►
And it was amazing to me,
00:51:59
◼
►
it just draw dropping how many people work there
00:52:02
◼
►
who, not talking about the newsroom,
00:52:05
◼
►
not talking about reporters, photographers, editors,
00:52:07
◼
►
people who actually made what I thought of as the newspaper,
00:52:09
◼
►
but everybody else. It was massive. And I'm sure that, you know, there's—I know, in
00:52:14
◼
►
fact, I know that they've had a lot of layoffs and buyouts and stuff like that in the years
00:52:17
◼
►
since I worked there. But it was just jaw-dropping how many people work there, doing things other
00:52:24
◼
►
than what I thought of as the business of doing the newspaper.
00:52:27
◼
►
Oh, it's crazy, but newspapers used to make like 25% profit margins year after year or
00:52:33
◼
►
larger. And you could have—and that was—so you could have any number of executives, middle
00:52:37
◼
►
members of the family who were too idiotic to send it to other companies,
00:52:41
◼
►
promotions people, layers of editors, reporters. You have reporters working on features for three
00:52:46
◼
►
years and producing 50,000 words at the end. And magazines were, I think, a little bit more
00:52:52
◼
►
variable, but many had extremely high profit margins. There was no other place for advertisers
00:52:56
◼
►
to go. Right. It was, that in fact was a point of contention when I was there because it was,
00:53:01
◼
►
at the time, it was a Knight Ritter newspaper, the Enquirer, well, and the Daily News,
00:53:04
◼
►
The Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News are jointly published by a—well, I don't even
00:53:09
◼
►
know what the company is called anymore, but it's one company that publishes two newspapers.
00:53:12
◼
►
And they were owned by Knight Ritter. And Knight Ritter considered at the time, this is like the
00:53:19
◼
►
mid-to-late '90s, their flagship newspaper to be the San Jose Mercury News. And it was always a
00:53:26
◼
►
little bit of a point of contention because I think, journalistically, the Philadelphia
00:53:29
◼
►
Inquirer had a better reputation. In the '80s, the Philadelphia Inquirer won more Pulitzer's
00:53:34
◼
►
than the New York Times or the Washington Post. I mean, it was truly a world-class,
00:53:39
◼
►
arguably maybe in the '80s, maybe the best newspaper in the country in the '80s.
00:53:42
◼
►
Pete: Mm hmm. Yeah, I want to talk about the Inky.
00:53:44
◼
►
Brian: And so, that was sort of a sore point of contention, but here's why the San Jose Mercury
00:53:49
◼
►
News was considered the flagship of Knight
00:54:00
◼
►
had days of 19% profit margins.
00:54:01
◼
►
Right, but that was it. I mean, there would be like a quarter, like 1997, one of the quarters
00:54:06
◼
►
it came in and it was 19% profit margins and it was like, "Ooh, maybe they're going
00:54:09
◼
►
to have buyouts."
00:54:10
◼
►
And here's the thing, and this is of course the time when you still have the unions stranglehold,
00:54:16
◼
►
rightly or wrongly. I mean, I'm not trying to be anti-union, but it's like you had—I
00:54:21
◼
►
was a typesetter, I was trained as a typesetter, never worked in newspapers, but I worked with
00:54:23
◼
►
older typesetters and worked with all these people in the printing industry and they always
00:54:27
◼
►
had the story, it's a newspaper printing plant, so it'd be the guy who was like the
00:54:30
◼
►
linotype operator and the linotype machines that were taken out 20 years before. And he'd
00:54:34
◼
►
been drawing the salary for 20 years. There's the guy who, you know, was the lead puller
00:54:38
◼
►
or whatever, like all these jobs. And there's the guy, you know, and some of the plants
00:54:42
◼
►
were so union run that there was like a big stop button and if management rolled, came
00:54:46
◼
►
in, they would hit the stop button and stop the presses until management left. Like that
00:54:49
◼
►
was their right. And so you had even with incredibly bloated, inefficient printing plants
00:54:54
◼
►
that were padded with all these people who did nothing and all these extraneous employees
00:54:59
◼
►
and union benefits and everything else. Even with that, they were getting 20 and 25 percent
00:55:03
◼
►
profit margins.
00:55:04
◼
►
Right. And so what I love about something like the magazine is that the magazine is,
00:55:09
◼
►
to me—I've always seen what I do at Daring Fireball as being a reset button on that of
00:55:14
◼
►
what would it take to set up a business that is sustainable, and the employee count is
00:55:22
◼
►
Me and I'm a little lucky there because I have a computer science degree and I used to do web programming
00:55:27
◼
►
And so in terms of actual and and it really isn't day to day. There's not much web nerdery
00:55:33
◼
►
I need to do to keep it going but I did get to I in the early days
00:55:36
◼
►
You know, I could set everything up I could move servers
00:55:38
◼
►
I could do stuff like that by myself if there was a problem I can SSH into the server and
00:55:42
◼
►
Clumsily fool around and see if you know what the hell's going on here
00:55:47
◼
►
So it's a little easier to be a one-man show, or at least starting 10 years ago, with
00:55:51
◼
►
a technical background. Today, I think it's easy with things like Tumblr and Squarespace
00:55:58
◼
►
and the ways that you—you know, the WordPress hosting sites, WordPress.org even. It's
00:56:03
◼
►
really easy for someone who doesn't have a technical background to do the same thing,
00:56:06
◼
►
I think, today. It wasn't so easy 10 years ago.
00:56:08
◼
►
Yeah, and Marco's kind of the equivalent of that with the magazine, is he's an iOS
00:56:11
◼
►
programmer and he spent—you know, he can just make an iOS app—I mean, it's not
00:56:16
◼
►
make. But you know, it's some amount of effort that he knows what it takes to do it and can
00:56:21
◼
►
replicate it. And it's kind of the equivalent of like, okay, how do I set up an Apache server
00:56:26
◼
►
Right, exactly. Well, and the other thing that he has, it's a nice advantage too, is
00:56:30
◼
►
with Instapaper under his belt and with a happy, fairly large customer base, he kind
00:56:37
◼
►
of knows what people like experience wise. You know, what do they want in an app that
00:56:44
◼
►
going to a reading experience on these handful of devices, iPads, iPhones. What are they
00:56:51
◼
►
going to – what works? What do they click on? What do they like? So he was able to build
00:56:56
◼
►
that and that's a huge advantage.
00:56:59
◼
►
But then fundamentally, just economically, it's so simple. You just hit the reset button.
00:57:05
◼
►
Start from nothing. Okay. Now you've got a $2 subscription per month. You get two issues
00:57:12
◼
►
per month. And with 10, 20,000 subscribers, all of a sudden, or whatever the number is,
00:57:19
◼
►
just throwing out numbers like that, I actually don't know. But it's obviously hit a point
00:57:24
◼
►
though where with X thousands of dollars a month, you can pay four or five writers for
00:57:31
◼
►
an issue, a nice industry competitive amount for the articles. You can pay an editor and
00:57:38
◼
►
you can have money left over for profit for the publication. And that's without even getting into
00:57:45
◼
►
advertising yet. You haven't even started. And that's Apple taking 30% off the top, too,
00:57:51
◼
►
and bully for them. And so, yeah, that's the thing. I mean, Marcos put out some numbers, but
00:57:55
◼
►
he said after the first issue, he posted something and said, "Look, this has become a sustainable
00:57:59
◼
►
venture." And he's paying nearly magazine rates for writing. I was surprised and pleased at what
00:58:04
◼
►
what he wants to offer and this is my,
00:58:06
◼
►
I gotta be, you know, candy man here this next year.
00:58:09
◼
►
Like I'm so excited about the amount of money
00:58:12
◼
►
I'm going to be able to pay other people for good writing
00:58:14
◼
►
is actually more exciting to me
00:58:16
◼
►
than whatever money I will make from working on it
00:58:17
◼
►
because there's such a dearth of opportunities for people
00:58:20
◼
►
to both be published and to be paid
00:58:23
◼
►
an appropriate livable, like just even livable wage.
00:58:27
◼
►
It's not, he's not paying a wage that means
00:58:28
◼
►
that people can make $200,000 a year
00:58:31
◼
►
if they wrote full time for it.
00:58:32
◼
►
He's paying a wage that means people can actually live
00:58:34
◼
►
a probably lower to middle class existence, which is where we've gotten in writing.
00:58:38
◼
►
I got paid 50 cents a word by the New York Times in 1998, and then many years later,
00:58:43
◼
►
too, although they changed it a bit. I was told by friends that the New York Times paid
00:58:46
◼
►
50 cents a word in 1970.
00:58:49
◼
►
Jared: It's really not that, that's not good. Because a thousand word article is a
00:58:54
◼
►
lot of work.
00:58:55
◼
►
Alan: It's a lot of work.
00:58:56
◼
►
Jared; You come away with it when you check for 500 bucks.
00:58:58
◼
►
Alan; Yeah, so I mean, that's, this is part of the thing is like publications have evolved
00:59:02
◼
►
to a point at which they believe,
00:59:04
◼
►
and if you look at the management structures
00:59:05
◼
►
and the top-heavy structures of most publications,
00:59:08
◼
►
they believe writers are interchangeable and uninteresting.
00:59:10
◼
►
And I mean, even if writers aren't branded,
00:59:12
◼
►
aren't big-brand-name Malcolm Gladwell things,
00:59:15
◼
►
and not accusing the New Yorker of this of all places,
00:59:17
◼
►
but there's this attitude that the content
00:59:20
◼
►
is the least important part, the packaging, reselling,
00:59:23
◼
►
marketing, advertising around it is,
00:59:25
◼
►
and this attitude is pervasive.
00:59:27
◼
►
And so Marco, I think, is coming out the other way around.
00:59:28
◼
►
It's like, if you're starting from scratch,
00:59:30
◼
►
how would you build a publication today?
00:59:32
◼
►
It's gonna be an iOS app.
00:59:33
◼
►
It's the easy, smallest, or lowest hanging fruit
00:59:35
◼
►
to reach the largest number of people
00:59:37
◼
►
with the least amount of effort.
00:59:38
◼
►
He's got millions of people in his audience already
00:59:40
◼
►
who know and trust him, who know his product,
00:59:42
◼
►
so he doesn't have to worry about the marketing side
00:59:44
◼
►
of reaching those people.
00:59:46
◼
►
And then he's starting it out with the idea of,
00:59:47
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I'm gonna pay a competitive rate,
00:59:50
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which we hope will improve over time, and see how it goes.
00:59:53
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And so right now, it's sustainable.
00:59:54
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We could do this forever at this rate.
00:59:55
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- And I also think, compared to traditional magazines,
00:59:59
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which are so heavily ad-based,
01:00:01
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and therefore have these, you know,
01:00:03
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and there's the whole situation with advertising
01:00:06
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in a magazine like New Yorker or Sports Illustrated
01:00:09
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or The Economist and, you know,
01:00:11
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selling these back page ads and the inside front cover ads
01:00:14
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and then filling up the back of the book
01:00:16
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with all the little ads, it's an enormous amount of work.
01:00:20
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Something like the magazine can start from scratch
01:00:22
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and go with the, like, less of an advertising model,
01:00:25
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more of a sponsorship model
01:00:27
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and maybe just have one sponsor per episode.
01:00:30
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and maybe leave money on the table that way,
01:00:34
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but also not have to have a full-time ad sales staff.
01:00:38
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You don't even have to add anybody.
01:00:39
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- There's a funny thing that happened at--
01:00:42
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- Like I can tell you firsthand,
01:00:43
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if you go with the sponsorship model,
01:00:44
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you don't need any, but you can do it yourself.
01:00:48
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- Yeah, and that's what Tidbits has pursued,
01:00:49
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but there's this funny thing, yes,
01:00:51
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once you get to a certain level of scale or interest,
01:00:53
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you can ask for a premium rate
01:00:56
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and not have to be selling a thousand little pieces
01:00:58
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and have somebody in charge of it.
01:01:00
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But, you know, so Marco and I have this discussion.
01:01:02
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I'll expose the discussion we have,
01:01:03
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but he's talked about it publicly.
01:01:04
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He wants it to be every other week,
01:01:06
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and he's thought about it,
01:01:07
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talked publicly about it perhaps being weekly.
01:01:09
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I would agitate potentially for it going weekly
01:01:11
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at some point, although that'll mean a lot,
01:01:14
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different editorial schedule and so forth.
01:01:16
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He's worried it'll be too much for people to read,
01:01:18
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that if he's promising four or five articles
01:01:21
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every two weeks, if we suddenly did, say,
01:01:23
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►
just four articles every week,
01:01:25
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that may be more attention than people wanna give.
01:01:27
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So would subscriptions go up
01:01:28
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because it's a better value, it's more articles.
01:01:31
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Or do subscriptions go down because people are saying,
01:01:33
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oh, now this has become a chore.
01:01:35
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So that is even a fascinating position to be in
01:01:37
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where you're saying we could potentially,
01:01:40
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there's some dollar switch there
01:01:42
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and could we double subscriptions by having more,
01:01:45
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probably not in that ratio,
01:01:47
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but does it become more appealing to people
01:01:49
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if there's more content because it's more likely
01:01:51
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they'll be interested in something in every issue.
01:01:53
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And maybe now if they don't like the four or five articles,
01:01:57
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they have to wait two weeks
01:01:58
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do they resubscribe if they don't like everything or two or three in each so there's that's that's
01:02:02
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part of it you have to be much more interesting every other week than perhaps weekly as well.
01:02:06
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It's a tricky problem.
01:02:08
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It is but I think it's uh you know I when Marco first ran the idea past me hey do you think this
01:02:14
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makes sense I really you know I just thought yeah of course it just thought this is I think it's a
01:02:20
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sure thing I think it's a question of how big of a hit is it going to be that was that was my thought
01:02:25
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I thought it was just a great idea and a great opportunity.
01:02:28
◼
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And I do, I could not be more bullish on the prospects going forward of the magazine.
01:02:35
◼
►
It's great. And now the whole challenge now is to get interesting people who want to write
01:02:38
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►
deep, interesting things. And we've had some, I mean, the early response was great. And I've
01:02:42
◼
►
been going through a lot of what I did for Mark was go through hundreds of pitches that we've gotten.
01:02:46
◼
►
And we're trying to find more researched and reported stories because we're paying enough
01:02:50
◼
►
to get people to go out and do that kind of thing. So we'll have personal essays, we'll have
01:02:55
◼
►
general essays about things like wet shaving and cup of tea, I keep coming back to. And things like
01:03:00
◼
►
Gina Trapani's great piece about in vitro fertilization and her partner is such a—
01:03:13
◼
►
and technology, and this sort of thing that's totally universal to people, the feeling you
01:03:19
◼
►
have when you read it. And so we're striving for some balance of those components in every
01:03:24
◼
►
story. And so we're kind of a bunch of really fun stuff. I went to the Library of Congress's
01:03:30
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►
Buried Archives in Virginia, and I'm writing an account of that, of where they keep their
01:03:34
◼
►
audio-visual materials in vaults in Culpeper, Virginia. So that'll be fun to write.
01:03:40
◼
►
Are you going to do it for the magazine?
01:03:42
◼
►
is, I pitched it before I got the editor job. I don't know.
01:03:44
◼
►
Marc Thiessen, J.D. Here's my question for you, and this is one of the questions I have written
01:03:48
◼
►
down here for you is, because you have this widely, like I said before, The Economist,
01:03:54
◼
►
New Yorker, you pitch, you still write freelance for a lot of different publications. Now that
01:03:59
◼
►
you're the editor of the magazine, how much, how hard is that going to be for you to decide
01:04:04
◼
►
where to do your writing? Like, should I still pitch this for X publication, or should I just
01:04:09
◼
►
do this for the magazine? Pete Lienberg
01:04:11
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►
Well, I'm going to be, Mark, I was just talking about this recently, in fact, is that not about my side of it, but neither of us want to dominate, be a dominant voice in it, especially every other week.
01:04:19
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So, you know, we're trying to, some of the writers who are early issues, we're trying to space them out too.
01:04:26
◼
►
So I will be surprised if I write more than every four issues, if that, just because then it becomes too much, it shouldn't be a platform for me.
01:04:35
◼
►
And Marco's written more in the early days because, you know, he's trying to set a tone and so forth,
01:04:39
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►
and he'll probably be in less and less too for the same reason, when I have room for more voices.
01:04:43
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►
But there is this thing, which is I did this through just a fluke. I interviewed the fellow
01:04:48
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who's the head of the audio section at the Library of Congress, and he said, "If you're ever out and
01:04:52
◼
►
you have time, come out to Culpeper." And I did. I didn't have an outlet for it. And the insight I
01:04:57
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►
feel I got from seeing what the Library of Congress is doing with our audio and visual
01:05:02
◼
►
history, there's not really a place that would run an article like that. Aspects of it, maybe
01:05:07
◼
►
some technical thing about how you extract sound from wax cylinders or some, I wrote a piece a year
01:05:14
◼
►
ago, in fact, based on some, an interview I did with this fellow about the phonogram, right? This
01:05:18
◼
►
obscure thing that prevents audio from being used. The phonogram light, right? Lasts 200 years at
01:05:24
◼
►
this point. Edison's first utterances on a wax cylinder are still under protection by the
01:05:29
◼
►
phonogram write until 2067. It's this crazy thing. Everything in audio, no audio will expire
01:05:37
◼
►
until 2067 from the audio part of the protection as opposed to the copyright of the underlying
01:05:42
◼
►
composition or words. And it's just this historically weird thing. So I want to think
01:05:46
◼
►
about that for The Economist. It's perfect. It's tweaky. It was for the blog and it highlights this
01:05:50
◼
►
really odd aspect of where digital culture collides with analog culture and to some extent science.
01:05:55
◼
►
So, but to find a place where I could write about, you know, what's the insight and impact into
01:06:00
◼
►
seeing our cultural memory in this forum and the restrictions on us gaining access to it because
01:06:06
◼
►
of copyright and other vagaries, there's not really an outlet that would do that. Now, The
01:06:10
◼
►
Atlantic, there are places like The Atlantic, New Yorker, Harper's, they might run articles like
01:06:14
◼
►
that, but it would be much bigger. This would be something I'd spend months on. The compensation
01:06:18
◼
►
would probably be not good enough for it. I've talked to people who've written freelance for
01:06:23
◼
►
for some of these publications.
01:06:24
◼
►
And the experience is magnificent,
01:06:26
◼
►
but they can't put money on the table
01:06:28
◼
►
unless they have a contract or a staff job
01:06:31
◼
►
to have money on the table.
01:06:32
◼
►
They can't put food on the table,
01:06:33
◼
►
they put money on the table,
01:06:34
◼
►
unless they have an ongoing relationship
01:06:35
◼
►
where they're just committed to writing some amount.
01:06:37
◼
►
It's a tough business.
01:06:38
◼
►
So being able to write short, interesting things,
01:06:41
◼
►
like a thousand word range and get paid well for them
01:06:45
◼
►
is actually sort of hard to find
01:06:47
◼
►
unless it's either very technical
01:06:50
◼
►
or very poorly, not getting well paid for,
01:06:52
◼
►
getting a tiny number of cents per word.
01:06:54
◼
►
No, I think it's very exciting, and I can't, you know—I think the fact that the magazine
01:06:59
◼
►
is already paying competitive rates, and like you said, maybe as time goes on, maybe even
01:07:03
◼
►
might push that forward and actually pay leading rates.
01:07:08
◼
►
And why not? I mean, what if that drove some suggestions? What if we could get—I mean,
01:07:11
◼
►
this is the thought experiment, and I'm not—
01:07:12
◼
►
It's completely contrary to the way the magazine industry has gone in the last—
01:07:15
◼
►
Yeah, and I'm not talking at a school here. I mean, this is—I tried to, you know, private
01:07:18
◼
►
discussions are private, but this is, you know, also, this is in my head is, what if
01:07:21
◼
►
it were that we could pay the best rate in the magazine industry, what writers would we get?
01:07:26
◼
►
And this is not to be offensive to the writers who have been there already. We have some great
01:07:30
◼
►
people who are terrific writers writing for us already. But what if we could get the leading—but
01:07:35
◼
►
we would all agree. I mean, I know I'm not the leading writer in the country. I know there's
01:07:38
◼
►
people who I would be delighted to have their words in the magazine. There's people I pick up
01:07:42
◼
►
publications and go and buy them because there's articles by them in there. What if some of the
01:07:46
◼
►
leading nonfiction writers in the country said, "Oh, well, I should be in the magazine." And so
01:07:50
◼
►
we have people like me in the magazine who are very, you know, we're competent and hardworking,
01:07:54
◼
►
we write good stuff, people like to read us, and we have people who are names because they're very,
01:07:59
◼
►
very, very good. These are the people you idolize, you know, John Krakauer or something like that.
01:08:04
◼
►
He demands a huge fee. What if we can pay a rate where he says, "Oh, that's great, I'll do that."
01:08:07
◼
►
But we could pay that same fee to him, and we could say, "Pay the same fee to Dan Morin or whomever."
01:08:12
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, no, I think it's terribly exciting. The other one last thing on the magazine before
01:08:16
◼
►
before we let go of that is the other thing too
01:08:19
◼
►
that it reminds me of the early days of the web
01:08:21
◼
►
is that the magazine itself, the app,
01:08:24
◼
►
is better than, as good or better than
01:08:28
◼
►
all of the big name magazine apps in the store.
01:08:31
◼
►
It is. - It's true.
01:08:31
◼
►
- And it's totally true of the web.
01:08:33
◼
►
And it was this incongruous thing,
01:08:36
◼
►
and I saw it was one of the reasons that a decade ago
01:08:38
◼
►
I saw Daring Fireball as an opportunity
01:08:40
◼
►
is I thought I can make a better website
01:08:44
◼
►
than these guys, these big name guys coming over
01:08:47
◼
►
from Print Can Do, 'cause I'm gonna do something
01:08:48
◼
►
that is clean, I'm gonna do something that is not cluttered,
01:08:51
◼
►
I'm gonna do something that is, that looks good,
01:08:56
◼
►
instead of looking bad.
01:08:57
◼
►
And there are some magazines that have gotten better
01:08:59
◼
►
over time, the New Yorker app has gotten a lot better
01:09:02
◼
►
over time, where it's not, it's no longer published
01:09:04
◼
►
as a series of static images, it's actual text,
01:09:07
◼
►
and they use fonts, and they sort of have a magazine,
01:09:10
◼
►
the magazine type layout now, where you go side to side
01:09:13
◼
►
between articles, but an individual article scrolls down. But it used to be, and you can
01:09:18
◼
►
still easily find big name print magazines that have apps where I get completely lost
01:09:24
◼
►
two clicks into the thing. Where am I? How do I get back? How do I go to the next article?
01:09:30
◼
►
I mean, easily. You just get—it's so easy to get lost, and the magazine is just simple.
01:09:36
◼
►
Table of contents on the left, article scrolls down.
01:09:39
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, this is where I think you get
01:09:41
◼
►
that benefit of maturity is that, you know,
01:09:44
◼
►
we all have pity for the magazine publishers
01:09:45
◼
►
in that, well, I shouldn't have pity, I guess,
01:09:47
◼
►
is they didn't invest money figuring out how to do it right
01:09:50
◼
►
in mobile formats for the most part
01:09:52
◼
►
before like the iPad came along, right?
01:09:55
◼
►
I mean, some did, some were early out,
01:09:56
◼
►
but even doing it correctly, you know,
01:09:58
◼
►
for decent web browsers in 2008 or 2009.
01:10:02
◼
►
And so you're still watching, you know,
01:10:04
◼
►
two years on the iPad, you're still watching them
01:10:06
◼
►
fumble around to figure it out,
01:10:08
◼
►
and you're gradually seeing the clarity
01:10:09
◼
►
and there's a huge divergent path
01:10:10
◼
►
between the ones that you're like,
01:10:12
◼
►
I like the New Yorker app now, I can use it, it's good.
01:10:14
◼
►
The Economist app started out, I think, a little rough,
01:10:16
◼
►
not bad, but now it really has that iconic feel
01:10:19
◼
►
of the magazine without being beholden to it.
01:10:21
◼
►
And I actually, I'll often have read the whole issue
01:10:25
◼
►
on the phone and then I get the print issue
01:10:26
◼
►
and I'm like, oh, I don't need this anymore,
01:10:28
◼
►
I just realized I read it.
01:10:29
◼
►
But in my mind, I can hardly differentiate the experience
01:10:32
◼
►
because the branding and the sort of ease are equal.
01:10:35
◼
►
And yeah, I think so Marco gets the advantage
01:10:36
◼
►
having spent years figuring out what that experience should be, and then he just applies
01:10:40
◼
►
the lessons. You didn't have to start from scratch.
01:10:41
◼
►
And not having to answer to any idiot, dumbass protectionist, pull your head out of your
01:10:47
◼
►
ass guys above him so that when the magazine launched, he could actually honestly, unironically
01:10:54
◼
►
promote as features that you can select and copy text.
01:10:57
◼
►
That's true, though. Yes.
01:10:59
◼
►
Right? We laugh, but that actually is a competitive advantage that the magazine has over most
01:11:05
◼
►
magazines in newsstand is that you can swipe partial page at a time. Don't have to swipe
01:11:11
◼
►
screen at a time. Right. Is a feature. All right. I have a couple other things I want
01:11:14
◼
►
to talk about, but let's take a break and I want to tell you about our second sponsor.
01:11:19
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And I am really, really impressed by this app. It's an app for the iPhone and iPad
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called Griditor. G-R-I-D-D-I-T-O-R. And it's a photo editor for iPhone and iPad. And I
01:11:31
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I talked about this on the show before,
01:11:33
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and it's just, this is like the perfect type of thing
01:11:35
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I'm talking about, where I have been frustrated
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with the photo editing apps.
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I'm talking about things like correcting exposure,
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brightness, applying filters and looks, color balance,
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and stuff like that to photos as you're posting
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from the iPhone, and that I feel like a lot of these apps
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are way too fiddly, and that they're sort of stuck UI-wise
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in ways that aren't that, I don't know,
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I just feel like there's something out there
01:12:01
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that is different.
01:12:02
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And I'll tell you what, Griditor is really, really different
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and I really like the way that it goes.
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The basic idea is you pick a photo to start with.
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You go, just pick a photo from your camera roll
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that you want to edit.
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And it starts out in the middle of a grid.
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And in all four directions,
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there are filters and adjustments.
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So for example, you might have at the top brightness
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and on the right, something like a toy camera filter.
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And the grid gets filled in with, if you go straight up towards brightness with a
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series of thumbnails of your image getting brighter and brighter and
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brighter until you get to a maximum brightness. And on the right, as the
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filter, this toy camera style filter gets stronger and stronger and stronger. But
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then along the diagonal you get thumbnails that are a combination of the
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two. Brighter and this filter. And you can pick how strong they are. And you can
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just scroll around what I guess I would call the canvas of this grid of
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thumbnails and just see them and see how this works and then if you don't like
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what you see you can just set a new set of filters and new sort of combination
01:13:10
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of these things but the thing that I really like about it is that as you
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explore these combinations of the things it's all visual and you don't have to
01:13:18
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sit there and play with like how strong it's making you just see it already
01:13:22
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already because the thumbnails are already on screen.
01:13:28
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There's a whole bunch of photo editing apps for the iPhone that to me work with the exact
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same interface.
01:13:32
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And there's different, you know, you can, it's up to your taste how much you like them.
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This one has an interface that to me is like nothing else I've seen before.
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I really, really like it.
01:13:43
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And I will emphasize that there's two different type of things you can do with the adjustments
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in Gridditor.
01:13:48
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One are basic edit controls.
01:13:50
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are things like brightness, contrast, sharpening. And then second are the Instagram-style filters,
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these vintage-type things like bleach bypass, toy camera, stuff like that. And so if you
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aren't interested in that whole sort of retro filtering sort of adjustment-type thing, it's
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still a great app because you have these basic things like making it brighter, darkener,
01:14:17
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adjusting the filter going black and white.
01:14:20
◼
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Or the other way around, if you only are interested
01:14:24
◼
►
in putting filters on your pictures.
01:14:26
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►
It's a great collection of filters
01:14:27
◼
►
and I really, really like the way
01:14:30
◼
►
that you get to adjust how strong it is.
01:14:32
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►
So you can just go a little tad in this direction
01:14:35
◼
►
or you can go really, really strong in this direction
01:14:38
◼
►
and you can see it before you finalize it.
01:14:42
◼
►
Really, really good app.
01:14:43
◼
►
I've been using it a lot the last two weeks
01:14:45
◼
►
for the pictures I've been posting to Instagram.
01:14:47
◼
►
It's really, really impressive,
01:14:50
◼
►
and I think the developer has a lot of good ideas
01:14:54
◼
►
going forward for how it's gonna improve
01:14:55
◼
►
with new filters and adjustments.
01:14:57
◼
►
So you can check it out, there's two ways to check it out.
01:14:59
◼
►
You can go to griditor.com, G-R-I-D-D-I-T-O-R,
01:15:04
◼
►
grid with two d's, I-T-O-R.com/the-talk-show,
01:15:09
◼
►
or you could just go to the App Store
01:15:12
◼
►
and search for griditor.
01:15:15
◼
►
can tell, and this is one of those things, too, where I just love when a sponsor is clearly
01:15:21
◼
►
a listener of the show because Tai Shimizu, the developer of the app, in the email where
01:15:29
◼
►
we're talking about what I should talk about on the show, he said at the end, "Feel free
01:15:31
◼
►
to mispronounce Gridditor as long as you spell it out." But I'm not quite sure how to
01:15:37
◼
►
mispronounce it. I feel like I've gotten into this thing now where I'm expected to
01:15:40
◼
►
mispronounce all the sponsor names, but like, "tonks." It's impossible to mispronounce
01:15:45
◼
►
tonics. I'm sorry, no, no, I'm sorry.
01:15:46
◼
►
Jared "JT" Baum: Grid-eater? Grid-eater?
01:15:49
◼
►
This is, you know, this is, I think this is a-
01:15:51
◼
►
Jared "JT" Baum; Grid-eater. Maybe grid-eater.
01:15:53
◼
►
Pete L A daring fireball theme in general, I think, and one of the things that I think is like,
01:15:57
◼
►
I love the fact that we now have all of these small developers, many of whom have figured out
01:16:02
◼
►
a way to make either part or all of their living and sometimes have many employees even, but there's
01:16:07
◼
►
still these independent shops, auteur vision, you know, the clarity of purpose. They're not answering
01:16:13
◼
►
to other people. There's no investors. It's just they bootstrap themselves. They're
01:16:17
◼
►
doing something that is what they want to do and coincidentally something that we all
01:16:21
◼
►
like and want to buy. That's great. Cottage economy.
01:16:24
◼
►
Dave Asprey Great, great app. Really, really encourage
01:16:26
◼
►
you guys to buy it and support the show and support really, really innovative to me and
01:16:31
◼
►
interface in photo editing for iOS. So the show's already gone long, but I want to
01:16:37
◼
►
talk a little bit about some of the news that's gone on this week. The big news, I think,
01:16:40
◼
►
did Steven Sinofsky get in the boot from Microsoft?
01:16:43
◼
►
Pete: Holy cow. Well, yeah, and I think you and I exchanged some tweets about this. The
01:16:48
◼
►
analysis I've seen in a few places was he was seen as the successor and was clearly
01:16:53
◼
►
told he wasn't gonna be. And so he said, "All right, well, that's enough. I'm
01:16:57
◼
►
done. If there's a glass ceiling and a bomber standing on it, so goodbye." And that would
01:17:03
◼
►
Ted: And I'll tell you, I met with him for the first time, and I guess the only time
01:17:09
◼
►
that he's going to be at Microsoft. I met with him. I got a nice little 10-minute meet
01:17:13
◼
►
at the Windows 8 event in New York two weeks ago. And I'm not going to say I have any…
01:17:21
◼
►
Whether he had any inkling or not, I don't think I would have been able to pick up on
01:17:25
◼
►
it anyway. But I can't help but think that he didn't, though, because I do feel, though,
01:17:31
◼
►
that he had a lot of ideas going forward.
01:17:35
◼
►
of the things we had talked about was that Windows 8 was designed with a more like iOS
01:17:45
◼
►
style update schedule in mind where it's going to be a lot easier for people who have,
01:17:50
◼
►
let's say, like a Surface to get an upgrade, you know, when if Windows 8.1 comes out or
01:17:55
◼
►
something, I don't know, pick a version number. But it's going to be a lot more like the
01:17:58
◼
►
way that iOS devices and Android devices, more like the mobile world where devices or
01:18:03
◼
►
updates can get pushed to you and you can stay, you know, new features can be added
01:18:08
◼
►
than the old PC world where it has been a bit of a grind and a lot of people don't
01:18:13
◼
►
upgrade until they buy a new machine. And he seemed very excited about that.
01:18:17
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, I'm wondering if it's, you know, they shipped 8 and they huddled with
01:18:22
◼
►
the board and whatever and he said, "Okay, you know, I did this thing, we met the markets
01:18:26
◼
►
out there, we did an incredible thing and what's next?" And was told, bombers here
01:18:32
◼
►
we're re-upping him as CEO or you're not going to get more responsibility.
01:18:35
◼
►
Because it was weird, you know, he didn't fail. He did a great job. I mean, for all the flaws that
01:18:40
◼
►
we could point out with Windows 8 or Surface or strategy, you know, there's a lot of things. But
01:18:43
◼
►
I think this is Microsoft's the best thing they've done, I don't know, since when.
01:18:48
◼
►
Jon Streeter Well, he has two
01:18:50
◼
►
two successes. He has two successes under his belt with Windows. And Office was always,
01:18:56
◼
►
Office never hit those roadblocks. You know, he used to be in charge of Office and Office
01:19:01
◼
►
continued to ship on time through that dry period, the XP years where Vista was stuck forever.
01:19:07
◼
►
You know, when it was called Longhorn, and they actually had to give it a new name just
01:19:12
◼
►
because Longhorn had been, just had gotten sold, you know. So Windows Vista shipped and was,
01:19:20
◼
►
you know, widely, you know, collectively considered a bad, you know, pretty, pretty
01:19:25
◼
►
terrible release, unpopular, not well designed. That's when he took over Windows. He had nothing
01:19:30
◼
►
to do with Vista. He was in charge of Office then. So they said, "All right, Sinofsky's
01:19:34
◼
►
done a good job with Office. We'll give him Windows." Windows 7 is a huge hit.
01:19:38
◼
►
Pete: Absolutely. It's a terrific release.
01:19:40
◼
►
Steven, it was an improvement in every way and shipped on time.
01:19:44
◼
►
Pete; Yeah, address what ALSR, right? It's got, it had better security. I mean, Rich
01:19:47
◼
►
Mogul said that Windows 7 had better security than of which 10.6 or 10.7, that they had
01:19:53
◼
►
done so much more that was right. And you see that that's when all the malware people
01:19:57
◼
►
had moved to -
01:19:58
◼
►
Steven; Looked better.
01:19:58
◼
►
moved to flash and third-party apps because they could no longer exploit Windows as effectively.
01:20:03
◼
►
Jared: Looked better, worked better, solved what was their biggest technical problem,
01:20:06
◼
►
which was the security stuff, and I can't emphasize it enough, most importantly, shipped
01:20:11
◼
►
on time. Then, Windows 8, huge innovation in terms of the interface and the conception
01:20:18
◼
►
of it, you know, true revolution in the interface of Windows, shipped on time.
01:20:24
◼
►
Whether or not you agree with the choices they made, they were not muddled choices.
01:20:28
◼
►
I mean, you could say they're muddled and they're trying to be too many fish and fowl and whatever.
01:20:31
◼
►
But in terms of execution, they did exactly what they said, and there'll be improvements.
01:20:36
◼
►
It's kind of a 1.0 in certain aspects.
01:20:38
◼
►
They're doing Surface. It's an entirely new kind of product for them, what they're trying to achieve with it.
01:20:43
◼
►
But I mean, all that aside, it's like, yeah, they did it. They managed, they did Windows 7, they did Windows 8.
01:20:47
◼
►
Windows 8. They've got Windows Phone 8 is, I mean Windows Phone was a huge deal I think, you know,
01:20:53
◼
►
to get that out the door and then to upgrade that. And they've made painful, they actually made Steve
01:20:57
◼
►
Jobs like choices where they're like, although I think it was unfortunate if you're Windows Phone
01:21:02
◼
►
7 owner and thought you'd be able to get an upgrade to 8, they still did it. They didn't say,
01:21:06
◼
►
because this is the problem. I knew a guy who worked in continuing engineering at Microsoft
01:21:10
◼
►
for a number of years until several years ago, and it was in the XP to Vista days. And there was so
01:21:15
◼
►
They had so much cruft, they had a support forever
01:21:19
◼
►
One of the reasons Windows never got better
01:21:21
◼
►
until I would say seven is that seven cut off
01:21:24
◼
►
a lot more of the past.
01:21:25
◼
►
That's why you have this big XP7 gap.
01:21:27
◼
►
You can't just move, and you couldn't move everything
01:21:29
◼
►
from XP to Vista either, but seven, they just said,
01:21:32
◼
►
we're not supporting continuing engineering
01:21:33
◼
►
for stuff that ran 15 years ago.
01:21:36
◼
►
And that's the same painful choice they made
01:21:38
◼
►
with Windows Phone 8.
01:21:39
◼
►
Whether or not they should have engineered Phone 7
01:21:41
◼
►
to be upgradable or not, they still made that decision.
01:21:45
◼
►
- Definitely, and I think the other thing
01:21:48
◼
►
that was very clear to me,
01:21:49
◼
►
I've, you know, it only reaffirmed what my guesses were
01:21:54
◼
►
coming into meeting him and talking to him,
01:21:55
◼
►
but even with just 10 minutes talking to him,
01:21:57
◼
►
he is clearly a product guy.
01:22:00
◼
►
Like, he knows the surface,
01:22:04
◼
►
and he knows what window it's eight is.
01:22:07
◼
►
It is what he wants it to be,
01:22:08
◼
►
and he really had a vision for what it would be.
01:22:13
◼
►
He is not, absolutely was not just a totem at the top of the pole.
01:22:18
◼
►
He drove the design of it in ways that I think were very clearly that you need somebody like
01:22:25
◼
►
You know, the auteur at the top of the enormous engineering team behind the whole thing to
01:22:31
◼
►
drive it with a vision for where it's going.
01:22:34
◼
►
So I would believe it was a, you know, "Okay, it's time to figure out what my next plan
01:22:39
◼
►
And they said, "Just keep doing what you're doing."
01:22:40
◼
►
And he said, "I've been here 22 years.
01:22:42
◼
►
I'm ready to do something else with my money and my time. Many millions and millions of
01:22:47
◼
►
dollars he could start to do company. There's a lot of stuff that happens in Seattle that
01:22:51
◼
►
could be interesting, and he could do something Greenfield that's not beholden to the past
01:22:54
◼
►
and take his expertise and do that. So it could be interesting.
01:22:57
◼
►
Well, the other thing that'll—and it just does seem oddly coincidental. A lot of people
01:23:01
◼
►
are drawing connections to Scott Forstall at Apple.
01:23:05
◼
►
And for the obvious reason that he was in charge of the company's flagship OS, right?
01:23:11
◼
►
that's both of those guys. iOS is clearly Apple's Windows, had a reputation for being
01:23:18
◼
►
difficult to work with, had a, you know, seems like similar complaints about their management
01:23:25
◼
►
style or collaboration across the company, and perhaps, you know, were ambitiously both
01:23:33
◼
►
wanted to be CEO of the company.
01:23:36
◼
►
So, yeah, I think that's it. They bump up against that, and these are people who built
01:23:39
◼
►
huge fiefdoms and loyalties inside the company apart from, say, loyalty to the CEO or the
01:23:46
◼
►
company's division.
01:23:47
◼
►
Dave: And I also think there's a lot of loyalty underneath them in their divisions
01:23:51
◼
►
to both of them. One thing that I think has sort of maybe gotten misperceived out there
01:23:56
◼
►
with Forstall is that the sort of, "Yeah, everybody knows he was kind of difficult to
01:24:00
◼
►
work with, so it's not totally shocking that this happened." Very surprising. The
01:24:05
◼
►
between surprising and shocking, right? It's surprising but not shocking. But then I feel
01:24:09
◼
►
like that's been rolled up into this nutshell of, well, Forstall was an asshole, so good
01:24:14
◼
►
riddance. And that's not the case at all. There are people who worked under Forstall
01:24:18
◼
►
who I've heard from who are very, very anxious and nervous because they think that maybe
01:24:23
◼
►
Forstall was the last, that he was enough like Steve Jobs and that his ambition was
01:24:29
◼
►
good for Apple because it made him not complacent. And one of the things I heard from so many
01:24:35
◼
►
worked under him is yes, he was an asshole and difficult to work with across divisions,
01:24:39
◼
►
but a lot of that he used to protect his people and the projects that they were doing. And
01:24:46
◼
►
that the people, a lot of the people who worked under him felt like Forstall had their back.
01:24:52
◼
►
And it's the people who were outside his team who didn't like him. So, it is absolutely
01:24:57
◼
►
in no way like a no-brainer, "Hey, Apple's better off without Forstall." I mean, that's—
01:25:01
◼
►
- That's what I hear as well is that he had a lot of loyalty. It was just if you want to do
01:25:05
◼
►
something you didn't want to do if you're outside his group, then it's going to be a pain. You know,
01:25:09
◼
►
I can't wait till from Singleton, when the talk that Michael Lop gave about, it was partly about
01:25:15
◼
►
building teams, like someone has to be a dictator. I mean, that was part of his, I love this talk and
01:25:18
◼
►
I can't wait till it's up online because everyone should watch this. And it's about, it's a really
01:25:23
◼
►
beautiful talk about the importance of somebody making a decision and how a group can make the
01:25:29
◼
►
the decision that someone has to make a decision,
01:25:31
◼
►
how to get to a point where someone's gonna say,
01:25:32
◼
►
this is it, as opposed to the Monty Python,
01:25:35
◼
►
like we have a rotating executive authority
01:25:38
◼
►
and we have a council that approves the action
01:25:40
◼
►
of the anarchic syndicate, you know, it's like, no,
01:25:41
◼
►
someone has to make a decision.
01:25:43
◼
►
That's the only way good things happen
01:25:45
◼
►
is there is a person who says that in the end.
01:25:46
◼
►
And if that's the boss or it's someone
01:25:48
◼
►
who's appointed in a group, whatever,
01:25:50
◼
►
but you make that decision.
01:25:51
◼
►
- Absolutely.
01:25:53
◼
►
And when it comes to making those decisions,
01:25:55
◼
►
the one thing that strikes me as a big difference
01:25:57
◼
►
between the Microsoft and Apple situations is that you look at Microsoft and over the
01:26:01
◼
►
last five years or so, maybe even fewer than that, but the list of top-level executives
01:26:08
◼
►
who are in charge of product stuff who've been, you know, whether they were pushed or
01:26:12
◼
►
whether they jumped, who knows, but who've left is pretty significant. Here's the list
01:26:16
◼
►
I have. You've got Robbie Bach, who I forget what exactly. I think he was involved with
01:26:22
◼
►
he was, uh, he was, was he, Jay Allard you're about to say, but it wasn't the,
01:26:26
◼
►
Raleigh Buck I think was over top, Xbox and Zune I think was under his authority.
01:26:30
◼
►
uh Jay Allard who was Xbox and designer Bach and Allard together were the guys who reputed to be
01:26:38
◼
►
behind the courier tablet project that got scrapped at you know and it's disputed how far along it was
01:26:44
◼
►
but that it was a couple years ago though and there's you know a potential there that those
01:26:49
◼
►
guys could have shipped a a innovative tablet type project a couple of years ago if they had been
01:26:55
◼
►
allowed to. Ray Ozzie out, you know, obviously was widely seen as a possible next CEO of
01:27:02
◼
►
the company. And Steven Elop, who was forced out and now is the CEO at Nokia. And this
01:27:09
◼
►
is not, you know, and I wish I'd written her name down. But it's Sinofsky's second
01:27:16
◼
►
in command who's taking over Windows for now.
01:27:18
◼
►
Oh, yeah, she sounds kick ass. I was reading about her background and her approach and
01:27:21
◼
►
the people skill stuff that's talked about is like she could be a, she sounds like she's
01:27:27
◼
►
going to be a really terrific replacement from where she comes from.
01:27:31
◼
►
I've got to look this up because it's not right.
01:27:33
◼
►
What do you think I can Google for?
01:27:36
◼
►
Sinofsky replacement?
01:27:38
◼
►
A lady replacement for Sinofsky.
01:27:40
◼
►
Someone pointed out there's two women, I mean this is a Microsoft thing.
01:27:42
◼
►
Microsoft's always been heavily male.
01:27:44
◼
►
Julie Larson Green.
01:27:47
◼
►
And she just, she sounds absolutely phenomenal in a very positive way.
01:27:51
◼
►
And she is getting a lot of credit for spearheading the design of Metro, what I still can
01:27:56
◼
►
insist on calling Metro, which is great. So, it does sound like there's not exactly,
01:28:01
◼
►
it's not like, you know, there's a vacuum that Sinofsky's out.
01:28:04
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, and Ray Ozzie, before Ray Ozzie left, you know, he re-architected the entire approach
01:28:08
◼
►
to data storage and the cloud and everything Microsoft was doing. So, it sort of lost a little
01:28:14
◼
►
bit of Azure and SkyDrive and all the things around Microsoft Live or Windows Live, whatever
01:28:20
◼
►
they call it. I think all of that stuff either he is responsible for or moved it all together.
01:28:25
◼
►
And I think it's hidden from most people what a transformation that is from a company
01:28:29
◼
►
that was based on, you know, everyone has a personal computer and all the data is stored
01:28:32
◼
►
locally situation.
01:28:33
◼
►
Right. Absolutely. And I think that's, I absolutely think that's a big part of the
01:28:38
◼
►
appeal of Windows 8 is that it's built from the ground up with, and Windows Phone 8, that
01:28:43
◼
►
it's built with the ground up that you give it your live.com or whatever they call it
01:28:47
◼
►
Now your Microsoft, you know, their equivalent of iCloud.
01:28:50
◼
►
You give it your login and your data just syncs to the cloud.
01:28:54
◼
►
- I kind of love that.
01:28:56
◼
►
I mean, 'cause that's something that Apple could do.
01:28:58
◼
►
I still have this idea that Apple is very solipsistic,
01:29:00
◼
►
that it thinks, it talks about sharing and home sharing
01:29:03
◼
►
and networking and whatever,
01:29:04
◼
►
but it still thinks about one person in one computer
01:29:07
◼
►
and one person on one computer.
01:29:09
◼
►
And over time it's gotten better,
01:29:11
◼
►
but the fact that they don't give you enough,
01:29:14
◼
►
I mean, even iCloud doesn't really think about you
01:29:16
◼
►
being in different places at different times
01:29:18
◼
►
on different devices the way people actually do it.
01:29:20
◼
►
It's getting there.
01:29:21
◼
►
I think it still needs more improvement.
01:29:22
◼
►
- It's a great way to put it, solipsistic.
01:29:24
◼
►
That is true though, the company is,
01:29:27
◼
►
it's in Apple's DNA.
01:29:30
◼
►
- Yeah, home sharing for instance,
01:29:31
◼
►
when they introduced it on iTunes,
01:29:32
◼
►
they're like, oh this will be great.
01:29:33
◼
►
And it's like, home sharing is a home sharing,
01:29:34
◼
►
it's about copying stuff between machines.
01:29:36
◼
►
Apple is always about copying, not syncing, and not sharing.
01:29:39
◼
►
They wanna move copies of data.
01:29:41
◼
►
I mean that's iTunes match,
01:29:42
◼
►
and they move it, stream it, whatever.
01:29:44
◼
►
And I can't tell you the number of people who said,
01:29:46
◼
►
wish my iPad could have user accounts so I could have my kids stuff on it in mind. I
01:29:50
◼
►
mean, that's not a—that wouldn't break Apple's model of how the iPad works. It
01:29:55
◼
►
would be an enhancement. But they just want you to buy multiple iPads. That's it.
01:29:58
◼
►
I guess. I don't know. But anyway, no offense to Julie Larson-Green, who it does seem like
01:30:02
◼
►
is a good choice to take over at Windows, but she's moving up into the executive ranks
01:30:07
◼
►
at Microsoft. In terms of longstanding top-level product-focused executives, they're all
01:30:15
◼
►
Whereas at Apple, it's still, even with some reasonable amount of turnover over the years,
01:30:21
◼
►
with Bertrand leaving and Avi Tevainian before him and Rubenstein and Tony Fidell.
01:30:29
◼
►
- There's a long list, but the funny thing is, there's a long list of people who left Apple at
01:30:32
◼
►
a high level, but there's still a long list of people who've been there for a long time.
01:30:35
◼
►
- Right, Johnny Ivey.
01:30:36
◼
►
- They brought people through and up. So you have 10-year-plus veterans or 15-year veterans
01:30:41
◼
►
or people go back to Next even having lost like seven or eight names you could list off.
01:30:45
◼
►
Ted: Right. So, in the, you know, not to be gruesome, but let's say the hit-by-a-bus
01:30:50
◼
►
scenario where Tim Cook needs to be replaced suddenly or surprisingly,
01:30:54
◼
►
they have a wide range of candidates right there within the company to think about. And Microsoft
01:31:03
◼
►
doesn't. It does seem like there's a bit of a Shakespearean, you know, that Balmer is a sort
01:31:09
◼
►
of nervous king who, as soon as anybody rises up, they're out. Their heads come off.
01:31:16
◼
►
Pete: I think it's true, and it's very easy to fail at Microsoft at the things you need to
01:31:19
◼
►
succeed at, and Sinofsky did a remarkable job actually succeeding at them. It's so hard to
01:31:26
◼
►
get anything done that requires breaking silos there, and I think Surface, I think Windows Phone
01:31:32
◼
►
7 and 8, Surface, even to some small extent, Zune, because it let them, they were creating a new silo
01:31:38
◼
►
that just bypassed all the existing departments.
01:31:41
◼
►
And in Windows 8, all these things required cooperation
01:31:45
◼
►
and integration among people who don't want to work together.
01:31:47
◼
►
And he made it happen.
01:31:48
◼
►
And I mean, that's what I'm excited about
01:31:49
◼
►
with the new Apple organization is the old sort of breakdowns
01:31:54
◼
►
didn't make sense.
01:31:55
◼
►
And the new thing of like services, software,
01:31:56
◼
►
and hardware is much more sensible in terms
01:31:59
◼
►
of what they need to get done.
01:32:00
◼
►
Then they have to work at a high level across those groups.
01:32:02
◼
►
But Microsoft has so many fiefdoms
01:32:04
◼
►
that it is very, very easy to be put
01:32:06
◼
►
in charge of a high-profile project
01:32:07
◼
►
project and fail because you cannot break through the other high profile people who
01:32:12
◼
►
don't want to do the thing you need to succeed.
01:32:14
◼
►
I could not agree more, and I really think you just nailed it. And I do think that is
01:32:18
◼
►
– and that's what I'm left at looking at the difference between Apple and Microsoft
01:32:22
◼
►
from a structural standpoint, especially post-Forstall, is this lack of product-focused silos, right?
01:32:30
◼
►
Where Forstall had – he owned iOS. He – you know, Forstall was iOS, and that was his fiefdom,
01:32:36
◼
►
And it was obviously, if you look at Apple, what iOS means to Apple, it's a powerful
01:32:43
◼
►
There isn't anything like that left anymore.
01:32:45
◼
►
And I think the idea is going forward, if Apple is going to continue to stay on top,
01:32:51
◼
►
they need the same sort of mindset they've had for the last 15 years, which is this lack
01:32:55
◼
►
of fear of cannibalizing themselves, right?
01:32:59
◼
►
It doesn't matter if the iPhone makes people stop selling buying music playing iPods
01:33:06
◼
►
Because they're just playing their music on their iPhone because they're still buying another Apple device
01:33:10
◼
►
It doesn't matter if the iPad makes people stop buying
01:33:14
◼
►
MacBooks or buy fewer of them because they're buying an Apple device
01:33:18
◼
►
And so if they come up with something that makes people say I don't know stop buying iPhones or stop buying
01:33:24
◼
►
iPads as long as it's an Apple product, it's okay, but they don't want to have powerful executives
01:33:29
◼
►
in charge of those things who are blocking it.
01:33:32
◼
►
- This is the first time Microsoft's been in that position
01:33:34
◼
►
where they had the thing that could replace their cash cow,
01:33:38
◼
►
right, because they own stuff
01:33:39
◼
►
and the way they've even licensed
01:33:41
◼
►
and have a stake in the success of the phone,
01:33:43
◼
►
if people stop buying PCs, they're great.
01:33:45
◼
►
They're like, if they sell a billion surfaces
01:33:48
◼
►
and PC sales drop 95%, they're in great shape.
01:33:51
◼
►
And that's the first time since ever
01:33:53
◼
►
that's been true for Microsoft.
01:33:55
◼
►
- So the way Apple's set up is that there shouldn't be
01:33:59
◼
►
executives blocking that because whatever the new great thing is the hardware is going
01:34:03
◼
►
to be designed by Johnny Ive and the software I guess now will be visually and maybe you
01:34:09
◼
►
know it's unclear what his role software will be but you know it's going to be design
01:34:14
◼
►
is Johnny Ive's that's what he does so it doesn't matter what product the marketing
01:34:19
◼
►
is going to be done by Phil Schiller doesn't matter it doesn't you know Schiller doesn't
01:34:22
◼
►
have to worry about something it's not like Phil Schiller is in charge of iPad marketing
01:34:26
◼
►
He's in charge of all Apple marketing.
01:34:29
◼
►
The software is gonna be engineered
01:34:31
◼
►
by Craig Federighi's team, right?
01:34:33
◼
►
So nobody really has a product-centric beefdom to protect
01:34:38
◼
►
as long as it's something new from Apple.
01:34:41
◼
►
I think it's a very interesting way to structure
01:34:44
◼
►
the executives of the company.
01:34:47
◼
►
It's certainly not guaranteed to work.
01:34:49
◼
►
I mean, the big problem is you gotta come up
01:34:50
◼
►
with these ideas in the first place.
01:34:52
◼
►
But I think that's clearly the vision.
01:34:55
◼
►
- Ivis, the vice president of,
01:34:58
◼
►
or director of Bauhaus, I think,
01:34:59
◼
►
is he's gonna be all form follows function,
01:35:01
◼
►
whatever that means inside the company,
01:35:03
◼
►
where he doesn't have to direct the way the hardware works,
01:35:06
◼
►
but he's gonna be responsible for the interaction with it,
01:35:09
◼
►
as I think he has been.
01:35:11
◼
►
I wanna know what big Bob Mansfield comes up with.
01:35:14
◼
►
What is his next direction?
01:35:15
◼
►
'Cause he is clearly like, I think Bob Mansfield,
01:35:18
◼
►
not that he's been underrated,
01:35:19
◼
►
but the guy is responsible for so much innovation there.
01:35:23
◼
►
So much of the behind the scenes things,
01:35:24
◼
►
clearly the manufacturing side and the advances in hardware, he has been key in making those
01:35:30
◼
►
things happen that allow the company to sell the iPad at $500, it was introduced and so
01:35:35
◼
►
forth. So I want to know what he's working on next.
01:35:36
◼
►
Just think about what – I mean, I think Mansfield gets a huge amount of credit for
01:35:40
◼
►
this. I believe. I'd be shocked if he didn't. But just think about what's happened to
01:35:46
◼
►
battery design over the last 10 years. Like, it used to be something – I mean, I can't
01:35:50
◼
►
even remember the last time that I saw a review of an Apple product where it did complain
01:35:55
◼
►
about the unremovable battery. Like, they've finally crammed it through everybody's heads
01:35:59
◼
►
out there that this is the way to go with battery design.
01:36:03
◼
►
Yeah, I see more and more—you see more and more reviews where they're complaining about
01:36:05
◼
►
the battery life of other devices. That's flipped on its head tremendously, you know.
01:36:09
◼
►
And other devices now have built-in batteries too, because they've gone with the shaped
01:36:12
◼
►
lithium thing as well.
01:36:14
◼
►
these crazy shapes that like almost spill like a liquid through every available…
01:36:20
◼
►
Pete: It's like foam.
01:36:21
◼
►
Ted: Every available square millimeter of space inside the device is taken up by a battery,
01:36:27
◼
►
I think is a huge, you know, Mansfield-driven innovation. I think that the, you know,
01:36:33
◼
►
the way that people think about battery-powered devices is hugely influenced by what he's done
01:36:40
◼
►
over the last 10 years.
01:36:41
◼
►
What's funny is I got the craziest comment on it. I wrote an Economist blog entry about
01:36:45
◼
►
Skeuomorphism. And I wasn't saying Scott Forsall was fired because of it, but I said we could
01:36:49
◼
►
see changes because he was a proponent of it and Ive is not. And a lot of people hate
01:36:54
◼
►
some of the wares that crept in. So I wrote a piece called "Skew You," right? And there's
01:36:58
◼
►
a crazy commenter on it who's like, "Apple does not make hardware. Apple contracts all
01:37:03
◼
►
its hardware manufacturing. It is not responsible for it." And I'm like, "You can't even begin
01:37:07
◼
►
to respond to it. It was just this wonderful thing. It's like, I don't think you understand
01:37:12
◼
►
what making means anymore. Making is now, it's the fabulous chip design thing that goes back now for
01:37:19
◼
►
decades practically, is companies that make electronics are responsible for,
01:37:24
◼
►
it's the architectural side of it and the manufacturer is now competitive. They can
01:37:29
◼
►
find the best firm to do it. This whole thing about Samsung, maybe they stopped working with
01:37:34
◼
►
With Samsung, great.
01:37:34
◼
►
There are plenty of other companies
01:37:36
◼
►
who'd be delighted to pick up a multi-billion dollar
01:37:38
◼
►
contract for screens and other things.
01:37:40
◼
►
You know, it might take time to get production ramped up,
01:37:42
◼
►
but it's out there.
01:37:44
◼
►
- Well, and look at what Apple has done with things like
01:37:46
◼
►
unibody aluminum construction, right?
01:37:49
◼
►
I mean, this is something that,
01:37:50
◼
►
there were no devices that were like this,
01:37:52
◼
►
and now all of Apple's devices are like this,
01:37:54
◼
►
where they start with blocks of aluminum
01:37:56
◼
►
and drill the case out of one solid piece of aluminum.
01:38:00
◼
►
- Love that.
01:38:01
◼
►
- Is there anything left that Apple makes
01:38:02
◼
►
isn't—can't be described that way?
01:38:04
◼
►
Pete: Ah, the Mac Min… No, wait a minute. I'm sorry, the Mini, I've got one in front
01:38:08
◼
►
of me. The Mini… Well, no, I think they do. I don't think that's actually constructed.
01:38:12
◼
►
I'm feeling it right now. No, you're right. It's actually carved out.
01:38:14
◼
►
Ted, Apple TV is not aluminum, right? That's plastic.
01:38:17
◼
►
Pete Yeah, that's right. But that's about, no,
01:38:18
◼
►
I think you're right. The airport express is plastic too.
01:38:22
◼
►
Ted Couple of gadgets. Maybe, but I still think that the best way to think of Apple TV is not
01:38:25
◼
►
really as a device but as like a peripheral.
01:38:27
◼
►
Pete Yeah, absolutely. I can't wait. I want Apple
01:38:30
◼
►
TV to add Wi-Fi and then it can be an Apple Express TV and you're all done.
01:38:34
◼
►
You don't need that.
01:38:34
◼
►
I guess the Mac Pro is probably not Unibody. I don't know what you'd call it.
01:38:37
◼
►
Not yet. Well, the next one will be obviously. The next one will be...
01:38:41
◼
►
But all the MacBooks are, the iMacs are. Now with the latest revisions to the iPhone and iPad,
01:38:48
◼
►
they all are. And it's hugely innovative that you start with these blocks of aluminum and drill
01:38:55
◼
►
things out of it. And it gives their products this incredible build quality and feel difference
01:39:00
◼
►
that is unlike everybody else's. You know, like truly a blind person can really sense
01:39:07
◼
►
a visceral aesthetic difference between Apple products and competing products.
01:39:11
◼
►
Right. And they started down this path. I think materials science has been an overlooked
01:39:15
◼
►
part of, I shouldn't say overlooked because you see it sort of from the outside, but I
01:39:18
◼
►
think like even the Bondi Blue, the original translucent plastic they used that no one
01:39:22
◼
►
else was using for computers. I think it was already in vacuum cleaners, wasn't it? There
01:39:26
◼
►
were some famous things at the time. But I think Apple, since I've came on and since
01:39:30
◼
►
Jobs came back, they have looked to material advances as a way to more fully express the
01:39:36
◼
►
vision in a way that other companies have been unable to. And other companies say, "All
01:39:40
◼
►
right. Oh, well, they're doing that. We'll do that because we can use that material too,"
01:39:43
◼
►
as opposed to, "Why is no other firm looking for the next interesting material advances
01:39:48
◼
►
that would give them a unique, innovative look?" I mean, Samsung, we're looking
01:39:51
◼
►
at the profit Samsung is producing now, I want Samsung, I want Microsoft to be making
01:39:56
◼
►
stuff that is as interesting as what Apple does with the same functionality and same
01:40:02
◼
►
build quality. There's no excuse for them not doing it for profit or design side.
01:40:06
◼
►
Dave: I don't think Samsung even tries, but I will give Microsoft credit with the
01:40:11
◼
►
Surface for trying, and I think that the Surface is the closest I've seen to Apple-style
01:40:17
◼
►
build quality. It is very nice, I think. And they also, even from a material standpoint,
01:40:22
◼
►
I don't think it's as nice as the aluminum, but I do think that the magnesium, whatever
01:40:28
◼
►
stuff they're using is pretty good. Pete: But don't you want, don't you want
01:40:30
◼
►
to wake up one day and say, "Company X is doing something that is new." I mean,
01:40:35
◼
►
that's why we all felt about the UI for Metro. It was like, "Oh my god, Microsoft has broken
01:40:39
◼
►
the window, broken through the glass here and done something." I want the same feeling of hardware.
01:40:42
◼
►
I want to get up one day and say, "Ah, this thing is, oh my god, what they're doing with
01:40:47
◼
►
the technology, with the science, it's beautiful, it's functional, it's unique, and it's in advance.
01:40:52
◼
►
And I want someone to do that that's not Apple and is not a company that sells $20,000 components
01:40:58
◼
►
of some kind. Right. Exactly. Let me toss it—we've gone on long enough, but let me toss out
01:41:03
◼
►
something. I have to bring it up because I've seen it on Twitter too many times because it sounds so
01:41:08
◼
►
soap opera-y perfect is the idea that either one or both of Sinofsky or Forstall will switch teams,
01:41:15
◼
►
and maybe Forstall will take over software at Microsoft and/or Sinofsky would end up at Apple.
01:41:20
◼
►
- That would be hilarious. I don't know what the culture class would be like. I could imagine
01:41:23
◼
►
Forstall going to Microsoft because they're looking for something different, innovative.
01:41:26
◼
►
They could give him a ton of power and he could just come in and do what he wants to do,
01:41:30
◼
►
break heads, fire people, and hire new folks and make changes. I wonder if Sinofsky
01:41:35
◼
►
brought into Apple would be able to be slotted into a position where he would
01:41:41
◼
►
feel like he had enough authority because of the structure.
01:41:43
◼
►
- I don't think there's any chance
01:41:45
◼
►
Sinofsky would wind up at Apple
01:41:46
◼
►
because I don't think there's room for him, right?
01:41:48
◼
►
Craig Federighi's already there in charge of software
01:41:51
◼
►
and I think that's the only sort of position
01:41:52
◼
►
that he would take.
01:41:54
◼
►
I think it's more likely that he's gonna do something
01:41:57
◼
►
like Tony Fidell who'd started Nest.
01:41:59
◼
►
- Exactly. - And I think the same
01:42:00
◼
►
is true for Forstall too.
01:42:02
◼
►
He is so ambitious and he's clear,
01:42:04
◼
►
he is so smart and so successful.
01:42:08
◼
►
I have no doubt in my mind that we have not heard
01:42:12
◼
►
the last of Scott Forstall.
01:42:14
◼
►
But I would expect it to be something more like
01:42:17
◼
►
what Fidel did with his own startup
01:42:20
◼
►
and being the CEO and doing something outside.
01:42:23
◼
►
I don't know, who would have thought thermostat, right?
01:42:26
◼
►
- No, I saw that.
01:42:27
◼
►
Well, it's like Sonos.
01:42:28
◼
►
Sonos was, and not top level Apple people,
01:42:30
◼
►
but some great mid-level Apple people started Sonos
01:42:33
◼
►
and it's like the gold standard.
01:42:35
◼
►
It's been around what, for 10, eight or 10 years now?
01:42:37
◼
►
And Sonos is the Apple of home stereo equipment.
01:42:41
◼
►
something out there that's under our noses
01:42:44
◼
►
and none of us see it, but something like that.
01:42:46
◼
►
- It's cars, because a car automotive systems
01:42:49
◼
►
are terrible almost uniformly,
01:42:51
◼
►
and Microsoft actually develops one of them.
01:42:53
◼
►
There's six million systems equipped with OnStar
01:42:57
◼
►
that are turned on right now.
01:42:58
◼
►
I mean, I forget the number that have OnStar built in
01:43:00
◼
►
that aren't activated.
01:43:01
◼
►
There is room for some really tremendous work
01:43:03
◼
►
at automotive integration in car entertainment systems
01:43:07
◼
►
and logistics and whatever, and that's a space.
01:43:11
◼
►
I mean, Forstall has exactly the right experience outside,
01:43:13
◼
►
I forget the automotive side, but the making that part work
01:43:16
◼
►
and there's a ton of money there.
01:43:18
◼
►
- The thing I can't-- - That's my prediction.
01:43:19
◼
►
- I couldn't see Forstall going to Microsoft either,
01:43:22
◼
►
though, really. - Yeah.
01:43:23
◼
►
- Unless they wanted to give him something new
01:43:25
◼
►
that he could do from the ground up.
01:43:27
◼
►
He's not gonna take over Windows, though,
01:43:28
◼
►
because he already had an OS
01:43:30
◼
►
that was exactly what he wanted it to be.
01:43:33
◼
►
iOS, there's nothing in iOS that Forstall didn't want in it.
01:43:36
◼
►
- Right, interesting. - It's exactly, you know,
01:43:38
◼
►
It is the – everything including the programming language you use to make it and the framework,
01:43:43
◼
►
which is this second generation version of the next thing that Forstall had been working
01:43:48
◼
►
on since 1989 anyway, was all exactly what he wanted and all of it very, very different
01:43:53
◼
►
than Windows. There's no way he's going to go in there and take over Windows because
01:43:57
◼
►
Oh, wait, wait. John, I want to ask you something quickly though before it works for so long.
01:43:59
◼
►
So OS X running on ARM, right? Going to happen.
01:44:02
◼
►
Oh, def – I would be shocked if it's not already running on ARM.
01:44:06
◼
►
- 'Cause that's a four stall theme,
01:44:08
◼
►
but it's, I mean, right, they've gotta have it in the lab.
01:44:10
◼
►
Of course they have it.
01:44:11
◼
►
- Right, I wouldn't be surprised if it's the exact same lab
01:44:13
◼
►
where it used to run on Intel.
01:44:16
◼
►
- You know, in the PowerPC days.
01:44:17
◼
►
- iOS is on ARM, so of course, and it's, you know,
01:44:20
◼
►
I don't know exactly how compiled and divergent
01:44:22
◼
►
it is at the kernel level,
01:44:23
◼
►
but one suspects that they've been running stuff
01:44:25
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on multiple kinds of chips, including ARM,
01:44:28
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since they released OS X, or two years or three years
01:44:32
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before they released OS X in iOS form, one assumes.
01:44:35
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So I heard that rumor and I was like,
01:44:38
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that doesn't seem like a big transition at all.
01:44:40
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I mean, it'll be hard for the programmers,
01:44:41
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but Rosetta made that transition.
01:44:43
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If they can do the same kind of thing,
01:44:45
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if they can have a new Rosetta for ARM,
01:44:47
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if it's capable, which I think it would be.
01:44:49
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- I would be flabbergasted if they didn't have,
01:44:53
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as an engineering principle throughout all of Mac OS X,
01:44:56
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just hard and fast rules in place that you've,
01:45:02
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don't put any, don't program anything
01:45:04
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in Intel-specific in here.
01:45:05
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if you really do need to go and do something in assembler, here's, you know, block it off
01:45:10
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very, very neatly so that it can be duplicated, you know, in a processor agnostic fashion.
01:45:18
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Pete: But it seems totally logical to me. I heard the rumor and I was like, well,
01:45:21
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fine. I mean, why not? Because that uncouples it again from another point failure and they have
01:45:26
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much more control over arm chips and manufacturing of various abilities.
01:45:31
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And I do think it's easy to forget just how much more performance
01:45:35
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Heavy Mac OS X is than iOS just based on you know, just based on the on the on the
01:45:41
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The the the rules for process lifetime, you know that you can run multiple things side by side and that you your Safari tabs
01:45:51
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Continue processing JavaScript in the background as opposed to on iOS where as soon as you leave Safari, it's all put to sleep
01:45:57
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But think about all the stuff they've added to Mac OS X in the last two releases along
01:46:02
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those lines of if you follow these APIs, your app might be put to sleep.
01:46:09
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And I think that, you know, I think that has performance benefits on Intel, but I think
01:46:12
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it's very, very clearly about keeping their options open going forward.
01:46:16
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I mean, imagine—
01:46:17
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And there's the core thing, too, though.
01:46:18
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I mean, there can be ARM trips.
01:46:20
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You can have 16 core and 32 core.
01:46:22
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ARM trips are multiple.
01:46:23
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I mean, not that they're magic or anything, but I think Apple's done everything it can
01:46:27
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with Grand Central or all their multi-processing, multi-threading and all that is that conceivably
01:46:33
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►
you could slipstream in a supercord thing that's not eight, you know, like what's the
01:46:38
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top now? I think the Mac Pro is eight. Is there a double quad core or something?
01:46:42
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I think they've got a 16 too.
01:46:44
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They're 16, but conceivably, you know, I keep reading about that's the only drop in advance
01:46:48
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past advance.
01:46:49
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No, but it's all about… Grand Central Dispatch is all about one thing, which is the idea
01:46:52
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that you're going to have slower, more energy-efficient cores, but more of them,
01:46:57
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►
and that that's how performance is going to increase, and how can you best take advantage
01:47:01
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►
of that in a way that's friendly to developers, that doesn't make their minds explode with all the
01:47:07
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►
ways that parallel programming traditionally could. No, and imagine, just imagine a MacBook
01:47:15
◼
►
Air that's arm-based, how much thinner and lighter it could be. It could be, you know,
01:47:19
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►
All of a sudden it might make our existing hairs look fat and heavy. I mean, and then
01:47:23
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►
Apple's design, Apple designs inexorably go in the direction of thinner and lighter.
01:47:32
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►
- Yeah, I don't even think like imagine something that's even smaller than a Mac Mini. I mean,
01:47:37
◼
►
I assume that for Apple that the Mac Mini actually feels big to them now. So something that was even
01:47:43
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►
smaller and had all the capability, it's got a solid state, only sold with a solid state drive,
01:47:47
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►
with ARM processors so it runs cooler, has Thunderbolt and USB 3, and that's it.
01:47:52
◼
►
And I would also say, too, don't count them out on the iPod front either in terms of, like, getting…
01:48:00
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►
not just thinking about ARM chips that are powerful enough to run Mac OS X in any fashion,
01:48:07
◼
►
but think, too, about ARM chips that are small enough to be on, like, a nano-type device.
01:48:12
◼
►
Yes, yes, because they have the—it's the diversity of the ARM ecosystem that I think
01:48:17
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►
is—it's not only can they bid out where it gets made. They have greater flexibility
01:48:22
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►
and control and cost and sources, but that the range of ARM is so huge compared to what
01:48:28
◼
►
Intel can offer them right now on the sort of monolithic CPU scale.
01:48:33
◼
►
Think about like an ARM chip or a system on a chip, in Apple's perspective, where you're
01:48:37
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►
thinking about a device that says like watch size like the old Nanos but therefore because
01:48:43
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►
it's so small you don't need to worry about powerful graphics processing because whatever
01:48:47
◼
►
this screen has even if it's a retina screen at that size it's not going to require significant
01:48:51
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►
graphics processing. Just think about a little tiny super low power thing with the CPU of
01:48:57
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►
like an A5 Bluetooth 4 and you know what kind of crazy things you could do with such a little
01:49:03
◼
►
a little thing.
01:49:04
◼
►
Yeah, the i-pebble. Oh, wait, someone's already made that. I did not buy a Pebble watch, but…
01:49:08
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►
I did. I don't know where it is, though. When are they coming out?
01:49:11
◼
►
Sometimes. Hey, Elevation Doc finished shipping last month, and they now have lightning adapters
01:49:15
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►
and soon someday lightning connectors. So it'll all come around.
01:49:19
◼
►
Yeah. Well, Glenn, thank you very much for being here. This is a great show.
01:49:22
◼
►
Pleasure. So nice to talk to you.
01:49:23
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I want to thank our sponsors again, Tonks Coffee, Best Coffee in the World, and Gridditor,
01:49:29
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or as I like to call it, grid-a-tor, a really, really innovative and useful photo editing app
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for iPhone and iPad.
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[BLANK_AUDIO]