The Talk Show

342: ‘Doggy Lake’, With Matthew Panzarino


00:00:00   So the one good thing about podcasting is that nobody it doesn't matter what jokes I crack nobody's gonna come up and give me a smack

00:00:06   Oh my god

00:00:10   So brutal is that bananas or what is isn't that crazy?

00:00:14   Yeah, I mean in the end nobody should ever be assaulted, but it's just such a layered

00:00:21   it you know

00:00:23   complex situation that you get the I mean obviously so shocking right to see out there and then

00:00:30   You sort of think all kinds of things immediately like what you know, did that really happen all that stuff and then?

00:00:35   You get the immediate hot takes and the second day hot takes and the third day hot takes. It's just exhausting

00:00:41   So we we we don't watch the oscars live and haven't for years. I I you know, it's just a little tedious

00:00:47   I like movies, but it's you know

00:00:49   I think for the reason a lot of people don't watch anymore

00:00:51   But amy and I were going to bed on sunday night and amy went upstairs first and jonah said something

00:00:58   About it and she was like what and I was like, oh I gotta find out what this is about

00:01:02   and it was like because they they like

00:01:04   Muted it on the live american broadcast, you know

00:01:07   I guess because there's some kind of tape delay jonas had like a clip from the internet that was from like japanese tv. So it

00:01:14   It was such a bananas way to watch it

00:01:18   But it was clearly real, you know, and I do think I know everybody's talking about it

00:01:23   But I think there's a reason everybody's talking about it is it's like the rare

00:01:27   incident

00:01:28   where it's

00:01:30   it's it's like

00:01:32   the perfect storm and I I said this to amy and she thought I was nuts, but I said it was sort of like

00:01:38   Remember that that meme though?

00:01:40   You have to remember this the meme that went around like five six seven years ago about the what color is this dress?

00:01:46   Is it blue or is it right?

00:01:48   Gold or I forget what the two colors were but yeah, yeah blue and gold. Yeah

00:01:52   Yeah, and it's like, you know, it's somebody, you know

00:01:54   it was just like a weird trick of the lighting and and a weird trick of the way digital cameras work where it's like some

00:02:02   People perceived it as blue and some perceived it as gold and it was pretty close to 50 50

00:02:07   And I did I saw polling on this chris rock will smith thing and it is so close to 50 50

00:02:14   It is a stop. You can't find anything like this. That's 50 50 and and the poll I saw

00:02:19   Asked the respondents. It was like a poll of 2 000 people

00:02:23   And they asked them who they voted for in the presidential election

00:02:26   And it was the exact it was to the tenth of a percentage point like trump voters and biden voters

00:02:33   were both split 50 50

00:02:36   Between will you know who was more wrong will smith or chris rock and it's like do you remember who was who?

00:02:42   What was what was what was the who who thought will was wrong?

00:02:46   It no. No, i'm saying that there was no difference between trump and i see what you're saying like the the

00:02:52   The trump voters were 50 50 split. Yeah as well as the bite as well

00:02:56   Yeah, and and so you thought you said there was a partisan divide. I was very curious

00:03:00   No

00:03:02   There was like a mild

00:03:04   Socio-economic divide where it's like the the wealthier people reported being the more likely they were to

00:03:12   Say chris rock was wronged, you know like

00:03:16   And then people with lower income were more likely to say will smith but even there it it wasn't

00:03:23   Nothing got out of the 50s, you know, it wasn't like a huge split right right and man. It's just like

00:03:29   Sorry, go ahead. Well men and women were very both very close to 50 50

00:03:33   Although women women were a little bit more on will smith's side, you know, like hey

00:03:38   He was defending his wife and men were a little bit more on chris rock's side

00:03:42   But again very close to 50 50 just that and I think that's why you know, the whole world can't stop talking about it

00:03:48   Yeah, it's a pure definition like literal definition of a polarizing topic, right when you have that kind of split and it's just

00:03:56   It's so layered. It does not lend itself whatsoever to pithy takes, right?

00:04:02   And that's the thing. I think that our reaction especially driven by social media and the general polarization of

00:04:09   of sentiment right and the value of shock and awe and this kind of

00:04:15   lean towards

00:04:18   Extremes in our media consumption and entertainment and frankly in human interaction

00:04:24   Right, like then if you want to put it under a big umbrella, it's the polarization of civilization

00:04:30   Right, like that's that's really what it is and in all of these tools technological

00:04:36   and and sociological

00:04:39   trends have sort of pushed people towards this polarization thing and

00:04:43   You know the both of them were wrong to some degree

00:04:47   argument is very hard to

00:04:50   Make publicly without the polarization

00:04:53   Without the polarized crowd, right, you know coming in and going how dare you right?

00:04:57   Because it's very easy to say how dare you suggest that anybody should ever be assaulted physically, which is true

00:05:04   It's hard. You can't it's very difficult to argue that in situations other than self-defense or defensive

00:05:10   Another physically, you know physical defense that it it's defensible right to to physically assault somebody else. But

00:05:17   There's also the argument on the other side. It's like well should you know everybody have the right to

00:05:23   You know verbally

00:05:26   insult and verbally assault

00:05:28   Anybody else with no repercussions or no checks and balances and then you come right back with the argument. Yes

00:05:33   But should those checks and balances come in the form of physical assault is really hard to argue that they should right?

00:05:37   And so like you get this back and forth and then you add into that on top of this this whole sociological layer about

00:05:45   The way that black women are treated and then their general respect that is afforded them the general idea of their

00:05:52   sort of

00:05:54   just the the society tends to treat them as less valuable, you know, and

00:06:00   And not view their safety and security and respect as a as a matter of tantamount

00:06:06   You know importance and you add in that layer and then you add in the layer of you know

00:06:11   That will smith is a black man. And so you've got racial

00:06:15   Situation or scenarios that are that are playing out you have stereotypes that play out you have all of the people that want to read

00:06:24   the situation a certain way

00:06:27   Seeing validation in their own polarization, right? And i'm not passing any judgment either way because I don't I feel i'm probably

00:06:33   One of the least qualified people on the planet, right?

00:06:35   There's plenty of people that are much smarter than I am, but I think it's absolutely clear that everybody has an opinion

00:06:41   And it's very interesting just to see all of the layering of these different, you know different factors at play

00:06:48   and it's a perfect storm because obviously

00:06:50   Highly televised highly publicized event and it's a weird scenario where the base

00:06:57   Like obviously jada is being sidelined by a lot of the discussion here, you know

00:07:01   and she's not really like her pov and her

00:07:03   Her sort of part in this is all getting sidelined because these two, you know guys had this altercation two men

00:07:10   in in her life or one man in her life and one not had this altercation, but

00:07:13   I really do feel like the idea that they're both very wealthy both very well known both famous

00:07:22   It lends itself to like a sort of now not for better for worse, right?

00:07:26   I'm not passing judgment on whether it should or not, but it actually makes it easier for people to talk about it

00:07:30   Well, like it's not somebody who's obviously in a position of much more power assaulting somebody in a much lower position

00:07:37   Like what if will smith hit a waiter right and like that would be I think

00:07:41   The your percentages would be different right now. I'm not saying it's valid or not

00:07:47   I'm, just saying that I think that that idea of them both being very famous well-known and powerful people

00:07:52   also lends itself to the polarization because it's like hey

00:07:56   You know, they both had a choice to make here

00:07:59   you know chris rock could not have insulted her and will smith could not have assaulted chris, but I think that it's

00:08:04   Easier to have that discussion when it's two very very famous very popular people

00:08:10   You know, so I think it's like a perfect storm as you said

00:08:13   They're as close to peers as you could get I mean, I guess you know

00:08:17   I I guess I would say will smith is a bigger star. I mean, he's a movie star

00:08:21   He's literally was one of the bizarre things is it wasn't just will smith like last year coming up on stage and slapping

00:08:28   chris rock or next year it was this year the year that he was nominated and was like

00:08:34   Half an hour away from winning best actor

00:08:37   Which I don't think is actually totally coincidental. I I

00:08:42   Can't help but think that he was his emotions were on edge because that was still forthcoming, right?

00:08:48   Like and and I know that the best actor and actress awards come at the very end

00:08:53   Right before best picture because they're like the biggest award so you save them

00:08:57   So there's not much room afterwards, but I feel like if he had already won

00:09:01   Maybe it wouldn't have happened, you know, but he was on edge. Who knows what was going through his head

00:09:06   But you know, I don't want to belabor this. I know everybody's listened to it to death

00:09:10   But I can't I couldn't let the show go and I knew you'd have a good take which you did

00:09:13   But I do think the one thing you mentioned that totally resonates for me

00:09:17   Is tremendous sympathy for jada pinkett smith because she had nothing to do with this

00:09:23   She didn't crack a joke that you know, you could say hey, you shouldn't be joking about that

00:09:26   It's a medical condition or he should know better, you know, and that she'd be sensitive about it and she didn't go up and slap anybody

00:09:32   You know, but yet she's literally in the middle of the whole thing and didn't ask for it

00:09:37   Right, right. Yeah

00:09:40   Yeah, it's hard. I mean, I think that's kind of one clear thing that

00:09:42   You know comes out of it is that you feel bad, you know for her position in the whole thing coming and going, you know

00:09:48   And it is a it is a sad situation for all involved. I I don't I don't think that anybody

00:09:53   You know benefits from this scenario in any clear way

00:09:57   At all and you know, there's no winner here and it's impossible to ever declare one. I I feel like what what?

00:10:03   I don't know. I can't speak to you know, I know will smith apologized to chris rock

00:10:09   on instagram then and I think chris rock has been silent on the matter at least this is

00:10:13   Up till last night and I think he's doing a show in boston tonight and maybe is sort of saving his public remarks

00:10:20   For his uh comedy show tonight

00:10:23   But I do feel I feel like they'll they'll patch this up and like somebody I forget who it was on twitter

00:10:28   It was like 10 bucks says next year's oscars will smith and chris rock come out together to give an award, you know

00:10:33   Like because they could make this go away right like they you know, no i'm not even saying they should you know

00:10:38   And that's what's so you know

00:10:40   You know, I know there's literally turn the other cheek. I mean i'm not even saying that chris rock should forgive him

00:10:45   I'm, not saying will smith. It's just so bizarrely

00:10:48   You you could not write a better scenario and and the other thing that I thought was so interesting was reading the after the fact

00:10:56   Backstage drama where the people who run the show are like what do we do?

00:11:01   Should we have him escorted out like this was you know, I mean, you know, he he he literally assaulted somebody

00:11:08   On on camera should you know, but he was also

00:11:10   Waiting, you know, and they don't know that he won. I mean it is true

00:11:15   Like my son doesn't believe me, but I really do believe that that the academy awards take the secrecy of the

00:11:23   Ballots and the the I think it's still price waterhouse coopers or somebody is the only people, you know

00:11:28   There's a very limited number of people who know the actual winners, but they knew he was nominated

00:11:33   They know that he was actually the odds on favorite this year. What do you do and does that alter your opinion?

00:11:38   You know, how do you do this? And it's like what they have 10 minutes to make a decision, you know

00:11:42   What's the right thing to do? Do you do you escort him out because he did this?

00:11:46   Do you leave him in does it make a difference that he still has an award coming? It's all so complicated

00:11:51   Yeah, I know. I mean I you know, it's

00:11:54   If it was me it would be hard. Like I I don't think that I can put myself in the academy scenario there

00:12:02   This is a very complex situation very fast developing. You're like what the heck just happened, you know in a lot of cases

00:12:07   I think I think though to like one of our events, you know, one of our shows something like hey, what are what would I do?

00:12:13   All right

00:12:14   What would I do if somebody assaulted a guest or assaulted somebody on stage and like it's very clear to me

00:12:18   I really didn't matter who they were and I would ask them to leave but I also never you know

00:12:24   Obviously put on an oscars. So yeah, I know but you know like

00:12:27   Right like in our case like if it was a tech crunch event or something like that

00:12:32   I mean the you know there I I

00:12:34   I guess it's well, I I met Derek Jeter as you recall at a tech crunch event in new york with my son

00:12:41   Which was pretty, you know

00:12:42   It's pretty big stars come to the tech crunch event and and Jeter was on stage to talk about the the launch of what's called

00:12:48   The players tribune so I mean, you know

00:12:51   There's real stars who come to these events. I mean what happened? I mean Derek Jeter seems unlikely to slap somebody but you know

00:12:57   Yeah, I don't know. It's just bananas. Anyway, i'll take a break here

00:13:02   And then we'll get on with the real show, but I want to thank our first sponsor to our good friends at square space

00:13:07   Oh man, square space is the all-in-one platform for building your brand and growing your business online

00:13:12   You can stand out with a beautiful website engage with your audience and sell

00:13:16   Anything your products the content you create and even your time all on a squarespace website

00:13:23   They've got the best analytics dashboard I have ever seen

00:13:27   And you can learn everything from where your site visits and sales are coming from what ads you're running are working

00:13:33   What social media is driving people to your website and analyze which channels are the most effective?

00:13:40   You can improve your website and build your marketing strategy based on the top keywords that people are coming to your website

00:13:46   Or the most popular products see what's actually popular on your website. See it all in their great dashboard analytics

00:13:52   They've also got for design. I always say this they've got the best website templates to start with but also the best

00:13:59   Customization options where you can start with a great template

00:14:02   tweak it to your heart's content using code or using drag and drop whatever your level of technical expertise or

00:14:10   visual expertise or visual taste is and

00:14:12   Get a site that looks exactly the way you want that fits your brand

00:14:17   Here's where you go to find out more go to squarespace.com

00:14:21   talk show and you get a free trial 30 days no limits no watermarks

00:14:26   It's a full fledged squarespace account for 30 days free of charge

00:14:30   And then when you're ready to launch just use that offer code talk show save 10 off your first purchase go to squarespace.com

00:14:36   talk show

00:14:39   I i'm it's getting to the point for me

00:14:43   Matthew where certain things five years ago. Was it four years ago? Was it three years ago?

00:14:49   Start to blur together. I think because of the I I think because of this gap, you know

00:14:54   It's almost like a science fiction gap of covid, right?

00:14:57   Where like you like you've been space traveling and your relativity has has screwed with your perception of time

00:15:05   Yeah, and it's like all of a sudden yeah

00:15:07   You you know you volunteer to go on a mission and you go out in a spaceship and you

00:15:10   You know break a record for something and you come back and now your your kids are your age and it's like what?

00:15:16   How'd that happen? There's like a gap I but to research this to have you on the show to talk about

00:15:21   Apple's studio products the studio display and the mac studio, you know

00:15:25   I went back and I looked and and you even opened your your interview you had you scored a great interview with tom booger from mac

00:15:32   Product marketing xander. What's sander's last name? I have it right here in front of sorn

00:15:37   Yeah, xander sorn who I remember the first time I remember him was demoing

00:15:41   I forget if it was the first garage band or if it was like a major version of garage band

00:15:46   But at town hall and yeah

00:15:48   He's been with those teams for a very long time and shelly goldberg who is senior director of the mac and ipad product design

00:15:54   And you got to talk about both products, but you even open put it in your lead for this

00:16:00   Terrific feature interview with the three of them that the mac studio and the studio display

00:16:05   Are still coming from that?

00:16:08   remarkable roundtable

00:16:10   Discussion that you and I were present for and as soon as I read that i'm like, oh man

00:16:14   What a great way to tie this together because this is so true

00:16:17   This is what I want to talk to matthew about and i'm like wait

00:16:20   when was that was that like three years ago four years ago and then

00:16:23   2017 april of 2017 five years ago. I can't believe that was five years ago. I know

00:16:30   Yes, the time compression is in full effect. I I was shocked too when I looked up my articles like wait

00:16:37   Wait, really?

00:16:39   I still remember

00:16:41   afterwards you and me

00:16:43   Like trying to bang out some takes and get get something done

00:16:47   and

00:16:49   you

00:16:50   sent

00:16:51   The recording like we we didn't have like we weren't you know

00:16:54   It was like it wasn't off the record famously because they wanted us to write about it

00:16:58   But we weren't supposed to publish, you know, like a recording of it

00:17:01   But we were allowed to record it for our own notes and you got you know

00:17:06   Like a colleague at tech crunch to do a transcript

00:17:09   and I just I just remember and I was like, oh that would be so helpful if you could share that with me because I

00:17:13   Was like trying to take notes by hand and it's like I I just remember it like it was yesterday and yet it was five years ago

00:17:20   Yeah, it does it does play with the uh perception of time this whole covet thing

00:17:26   It's a it's a crazy one and like that honestly ours feels like another world, too

00:17:30   Because that was you know

00:17:33   Not at on infinite loop but an extension of infinite loops campus in an outbuilding where they had at the time

00:17:40   Obviously that's all been moved over to the new headquarters. But at the time they had their mac development components

00:17:46   They had their their their laboratory machine shop, you know with literal the machines they use to

00:17:53   to lay the prototype and chip away and

00:17:56   And manufacture casings and hinges and in you know

00:18:01   MacBook parts and mac pro designs and specifications all of that stuff

00:18:06   This was their actual machine shop set up like a real machine shop smelled like one felt like one, you know

00:18:11   And that's where they hosted us

00:18:12   But now of course they have this pristine new ufo thing and so like it also feels like wow

00:18:18   Wow, where that feels like an ancient piece of history, you know when they're when they were doing it from that location, too

00:18:25   so one of the weird things and I I I obsess over these things that you know today is further from blank than

00:18:32   Blank was from this thing. That doesn't seem like it was that much further behind it and

00:18:37   That the trash can for lack of I know people at apple hate hearing it called that the trash can mac pro the

00:18:44   small cylinder the cylindrical

00:18:47   Mac pro came out in 2013. And so the mac pro round table, which was largely

00:18:54   Explicitly not implicitly but explicitly about acknowledging

00:18:57   That it was a mistake, you know as famously as federighi told us that they had painted themselves into a thermal corner

00:19:06   and hadn't foreseen

00:19:08   the rise a decade ago of gpu's as

00:19:13   integral to the pro

00:19:16   Experience. Well, that's four years, right? It felt like, you know, it's 2013

00:19:21   Then it's like the mac stagnates four years later. They called a bunch of us up had us come in for this truly

00:19:27   You know open discussion about this and it but it felt like it when we did that that that that cylindrical mac pro

00:19:35   Was old and stagnant, but that was only four years prior now here we are five years later

00:19:41   And we've got the studio mac studio and the studio display and and this series of

00:19:49   Ever more impressive and different expansion of apple silicon throughout the mac mac line

00:19:54   It's yeah, it's like that 70s show moment where like that 70s show today would be about like 2000

00:20:00   2007 or something

00:20:03   Yeah, exactly exactly or like when I was a kid happy days was about these kid teenagers in milwaukee in the 50s

00:20:11   And it might for me

00:20:13   In the 70s, it might as well have been about like a blincoln's time in the 1860s. I was like

00:20:19   Right. I don't know what's going on with this crazy music and they've got jukeboxes and these crazy cars

00:20:25   That was forever ago. Whereas it was really like 16 17 years or something like that. Yeah, exactly

00:20:30   yeah, but the trashcan disc does feel like

00:20:33   Ancient history and the fact is that that that amount of time

00:20:38   You know, obviously it wasn't when we when we had that meeting and they were talking to us about it

00:20:46   The important context too to remember if people weren't like, you know reading those articles and remembering that is that

00:20:51   They were just telling us that they had done something wrong and they were not yet ready to say anything

00:20:57   About what they were doing to fix it, right? Right. They were just saying hey, this is the wrong way to go

00:21:03   and

00:21:06   Okay, bye

00:21:07   Right. Look that's basically what they said like that was wrong

00:21:10   That was bad and and and to emphasize that we we get that that what we have today with our mac pro

00:21:17   Is not suiting the needs of our pro customers on the mac and we are still committed to the mac. Yeah

00:21:23   It I I feel like there's something about it. We're just not sure what yet or we're not ready to talk about what yet, right?

00:21:28   I guess the one thing they they dropped a hint back then

00:21:32   Fairly strong hint was what would become the iMac pro

00:21:37   You know that that they said something to the you know, they're like we really can't tell you what we have in mind

00:21:42   But we will tell you that one of the things we've been thinking was that we could do an iMac

00:21:48   That is more suited for our pro customers something like that. They didn't give us the name iMac pro, but it was

00:21:55   About as close as ever on or off the record anybody in apple product marketing has ever come

00:22:03   To spilling the name of an upcoming device. It was sort of like it would be an iMac and it would be pro

00:22:09   We can't tell you what it's called intent

00:22:13   but we really do think that an iMac that is intended for our pro customers could be a really

00:22:20   Important product and we've been working on something like that that we you know, we'll have to show you, you know

00:22:26   sooner rather than later, but I do think I i'll start there like in

00:22:31   In hindsight, it's like any kind of good

00:22:34   mystery

00:22:36   movie

00:22:37   it you get these clues and then when you get to the

00:22:41   The denouement, how do you pronounce it?

00:22:44   Denomar

00:22:46   And then all of a sudden you can look back and fill in some blanks and

00:22:50   The biggest blank that we've been able to fill in is the apple silicon strategy

00:22:55   and right and I really do think that there was that part of the the whole mac lineup seems stretched thin and

00:23:03   stagnant and

00:23:05   Really concerning that maybe the company is only concerned about as you described it in your article the volcanic

00:23:12   Popularity of ios devices and they just can't they just don't have the attention to worry about mac hardware

00:23:18   but part of it too in hindsight has to be that they were

00:23:22   They were like at that point they could see where the apple silicon strategy was going to go

00:23:28   And they could imagine the sort of performance they were going to get maybe not exact numbers

00:23:33   But you know at least ballpark, you know, this is what we're going to be able to build in just a couple of years

00:23:38   What do we do in the me in the interim and you could see that they I think that there was sort of a

00:23:46   Running out the clock on intel like well, we can just you know, let's save our most impressive designs for the apple silicon

00:23:55   Because we can go thinner, you know, it's not just like let's save the good designs for our own silicon

00:23:59   It's our own silicon will enable us to make these fantastic designs that we can't make now with intel. So why even try with intel?

00:24:06   Yes. Yes. There was a lot of models in there and I think like that

00:24:11   It's like a 15 inch pro in there somewhere that I don't know there was some questionable choices made in terms of

00:24:18   processor generation right like the intel they chose an intel part that was

00:24:23   You know, they're like, oh, why would you go with this intel part?

00:24:25   Like why not wait until x right or why not?

00:24:28   Push it until y right and I don't like i'm not i'm sorry

00:24:32   i'm, just not the the guy to remember all of the different architectures kaby lake and you know,

00:24:37   sunspire and dogs butt or whatever like but that you know, there was basically a

00:24:42   A certain period in there where it did feel awkward. It felt like wow

00:24:47   Why didn't they wait until intel could do x y or z more for them?

00:24:50   And the answer I think on apple's side internally was hey

00:24:54   We don't really think we're ever going to get what we really want from them and we're working to build something that we think will

00:25:00   In terms of power in terms of power per watt for sure

00:25:03   So we're just going to put in, you know an upgraded part very straightforward. This is not really a

00:25:09   New or or big jump forward, but it does serve customers who just need a new laptop, right?

00:25:15   Or need a new new new hardware now and then we'll keep working on this other thing, you know

00:25:20   And I think that answers a lot of the questions people had in the public about it about like hey

00:25:24   Why would you go with this part or why not push intel to do xy or or why not wait until this part?

00:25:30   Arrives to solve all your problems and apple's like saying hey, we got problems that we don't think intel's ever going to solve

00:25:35   I do think that one of the things that I see differently in hindsight is the imac pro and

00:25:41   It's it it it always seemed a little bit curious, you know that that you would

00:25:48   Go pro with an all-in-one design because and I know that the apple has certainly starting from

00:25:56   That that roundtable discussion five years ago unbelievably, but they've started using the word modular a lot more

00:26:03   With the mac as it comes to their pro users, you know

00:26:06   And I think for all the obvious reasons but an all-in-one imac pro is anti-modular, right? You've got this

00:26:13   these xeon chips and

00:26:16   Truly pro performance where okay because they're xeon chips single core

00:26:21   They're actually slower than lots of much less expensive consumer oriented macs that are on

00:26:27   Newer intel chips, but especially for people whose main use case is not multi-threaded work, right? Exactly, right?

00:26:35   But it's it just seemed a little curious that single threaded was so much

00:26:39   Slower because these are xeon chips and they take longer to come out on the same generation

00:26:44   but for the pro users who are compiling lots of code and all sorts of

00:26:49   you know files in a big xcode project can be thrown out to

00:26:53   A dozen different cpus and distribute this or or all the video and audio type things, uh

00:27:00   You know that they love to demo that that can be multi-threaded

00:27:04   The performance was excellent and the thermals were amazing and the the first real hint as to apple's totally to me

00:27:12   rejuvenated interest in advancing the state of

00:27:16   Computer thermal system design, you know because one thing nobody ever really talked about with at least i'm not familiar with

00:27:24   Before the apple's iMac pro was nobody ever talked, you know, these intel xeon chips boy

00:27:31   You can make them run whisper quiet

00:27:33   Right

00:27:36   Right, you can really really push push this multi-core design and oh boy it'll run

00:27:44   Quiet and cool, you know, nobody you should put it as close to your face as possible

00:27:48   Like that's where you want it sitting

00:27:50   Right behind your display. Nobody ever talked about that

00:27:53   It was truly an astonishing design and in their hands-on area when it first came out

00:27:57   They encouraged those of us who were there, you know

00:28:00   Here's this demo machine

00:28:02   I think the one that that I remember getting behind and you know

00:28:05   There was plenty of room behind the desk or table counter

00:28:08   whatever you want to call it where they had the demo station set up and they were

00:28:11   compiling lots and lots of code across multiple cores and here get down there put your ear right next to the vents see what

00:28:19   You can hear and it's like yeah, I think I hear something but you know, it was clearly like within the placebo

00:28:25   Range of I guess I hear something but it's you know, this is a maxed out xeon

00:28:30   That's that's been pressed for minutes doing one demo after another as groups went around the room

00:28:36   Yeah, this is quiet and cool and it's it doesn't feel like I could cook an egg on it or anything like that

00:28:41   This is pretty amazing. But in hindsight, it really was truly a stopgap design, right? And I think that it it that the

00:28:48   Last, you know this month's

00:28:51   Announcement and and product release of the max studio and and the combination this both products this max studio and the studio display

00:28:59   sort of show

00:29:01   the actual way forward for that market because that to me that that's the

00:29:06   What the iMac pro was meant for that audience is exactly the audience that is meant for the max studio with a studio display

00:29:14   Yeah

00:29:15   And I think that that audience was sort of willing to accept the iMac pro because they got pretty much the world's best display

00:29:22   In a desktop, you know at that point and it's hard to argue against that right? It's hard to argue

00:29:27   Oh, wait, what if I want a different kind of monitor?

00:29:29   What if I want a different setup because you go oh well, you know, I can extend the monitor

00:29:33   I obviously you can't use it as a target display which still remains a pain point, but you could

00:29:38   Ostensibly attach another monitor to it and you knew your main monitor was pretty damn good

00:29:43   This wasn't some sort of all-in-one where you're getting some subpar display and then you feel itchy about it, right?

00:29:48   It was the best monitor you could buy and so they felt as long as the performance was good. That's great

00:29:53   So as you said the modularity aspect of it though was nowhere to be found

00:29:59   You know, you couldn't argue in any way shape or form that that was a modular design, right?

00:30:03   it you know, and I really feel like it was

00:30:06   You know and they did come out, you know, like I guess the last

00:30:10   Obviously the last hurrah of the whole mac stint on intel was the mac pro from 2019

00:30:18   And I know they had some intel models that came out until the end of 2020

00:30:24   But none of them were all new designs, right?

00:30:27   They were all you know, looks exactly like the previous generation, but we've upgraded to

00:30:33   Whatever core i7 and i9 whatever intel's upgraded to like you said sky lake doggy lake

00:30:40   Doggy paddle, whatever right?

00:30:43   The mac pro is the last

00:30:46   Truly new intel based product and it shows you know, it's the the fact and again though

00:30:51   It was sort of a stop gap right that they came out with it

00:30:54   Did it

00:30:57   truly

00:30:58   What would you call it?

00:30:59   exuberant exorbitant

00:31:01   industrial design on on the

00:31:03   yes, yeah, the air channeling and the cheese grater and the the a very aggressive stand for the monitor and

00:31:13   Everything else thousand dollar thousand thousand dollar wheels

00:31:16   Yes thousand dollar wheels, right? They they

00:31:20   You know spared no effort and made something that wasn't just like oh well, you know

00:31:25   it and in some ways was sort of the anti

00:31:30   iMac pro where the iMac pro it's like, okay, we'll change the color of the aluminum to

00:31:34   Uh space gray to show that it's pro

00:31:38   right and otherwise

00:31:40   It looks exactly like the 27 inch 5k iMac that had been out since 2014 or so or 2013 whenever it was

00:31:48   Even though inside where you never ever get to look it's this whole new

00:31:53   incredible thermal system to get these

00:31:57   Crazy much more powerful and hotter xeon chips to run within the same form factor as the regular consumer 5k

00:32:04   But you don't see it, right?

00:32:06   And so the opposite of that would be the Mac Pro where it's like, okay, you want a a big desktop rig?

00:32:11   Here you go. You could you know, you you could fit like a small dog in here, you know, no problem, right?

00:32:17   you know, this is pretty big box and

00:32:19   It looks like no other Mac we've ever made. It's an all new design and

00:32:25   seemingly only one generation of product right like I don't think anybody thinks that

00:32:31   Which we'll get to later in the show, but I don't think anybody thinks the apple silicon Mac Pro is going to look

00:32:37   Exactly like the Intel one. I don't because I don't think there's any reason to make it that big

00:32:42   Yeah, I don't know. I mean we can I don't know if you want to segue into talking about that later. Yeah, let's

00:32:47   Let's put a put a tack in it. What do we with the lingo? I have some thoughts for sure

00:32:52   But yeah, they said they this introduction so that you mentioned the modularity which I think is an interesting

00:32:57   Thing to talk about because it's semantic but you know apple loves semantics, right?

00:33:02   It's one of their favorite things to play with when we were talking about the Mac Pro and when they were

00:33:07   You know walking us through all of that because in the interim, you know

00:33:10   There there was a sort of as we were talking about there was a sort of meeting where?

00:33:14   It's like hey, we don't know what we're going to do yet or maybe they did internally but they weren't saying but we didn't

00:33:19   We wanted to acknowledge publicly to our pro users that we see you we hear you yada yada, right?

00:33:24   Just that hearts and minds situation there then in the interim

00:33:29   They came out with I went to the HQ and they grew like hey we we're gonna talk about this

00:33:34   We want to know if you want to talk to this team. We've built this new team and that's the pro pro workflows team, right?

00:33:40   And that was the first time they had talked about it publicly it honestly don't think it had been formed that

00:33:45   Much prior to me talking to them like they clearly were doing work and they it had existed for a while

00:33:51   But it wasn't a thing where it was like, oh we've had this for 10 years, you know

00:33:54   No

00:33:55   This is some new thing

00:33:56   Where they basically were following on that same line or the same vein where they're saying

00:34:01   Hey, remember when we said we were listening to you here's explicitly how we are listening to you, right?

00:34:06   We have these people who do nothing but talk to professionals about their workflows and the way that they use max

00:34:13   And we want to use that data to inform the design of new computers

00:34:17   Yes, including the mac pro which is coming in 2019

00:34:20   Right, like that was their whole purpose of they that's the message they wanted to get across

00:34:25   And that pro workflows discussion

00:34:29   Had a lot to say about modularity, right? Like we know pros do different things. They do different kinds of work

00:34:36   They have different needs. That's why

00:34:38   We feel that modularity and the pro workflows

00:34:42   Discussions are going to be integral to whatever design

00:34:45   You know we come up with for the mac pro and when they did it when they did announce it. It was very modular

00:34:53   Right, they had custom cards. They had compatibility with external suppliers and external manufacturers of cards all this stuff

00:35:00   and so at that time modularity very

00:35:03   straightforwardly very clearly meant

00:35:06   You can add in the components

00:35:09   To this machine that make it work for you. That's what modular meant

00:35:14   Semantically to apple and or at least in their public messaging at that time, right?

00:35:19   Now, what does it mean now? Right because the same word is being used to talk about

00:35:26   mac studio and I think it's very interesting curious to hear what you that you think about this, but

00:35:31   I think that now very clearly in their minds modular means

00:35:36   You have a desktop unit which has some customizability to it and configurability

00:35:41   And then you have a monitor and that's modular and then of course that's supported by a lot of external supports which also supports

00:35:49   Modularity like external devices being plugged in right right and so like their their version or their definition

00:35:56   and positioning of modularity has

00:35:59   Evolved I guess you'd say, you know, i'm so curious to see what you thought about that

00:36:05   Yeah, I think I know I I think a lot of people make too big a deal over

00:36:10   johnny ives singular influence on their design

00:36:14   And I know that sounds that sounds hyperbole to say that he you know that you can overstate his influence

00:36:21   but I think when it comes to

00:36:23   the the

00:36:26   The thermal corner the mac got painted in a decade ago that we're talking about

00:36:31   I I really don't think you can lay that at johnny ives feet. I think his influence was in there somewhere, you know

00:36:37   And you know the trash can design

00:36:41   Certainly it is it was super striking

00:36:44   I mean, I know people I know marquez brownlee posted a funny video where he was like your move tim cook

00:36:50   And he showed that he turned his old one into a planter, you know, like how can you reuse it's a beautiful case it really is

00:36:58   But it wasn't it it was an honest attempt at making a pro device

00:37:04   Like when you spin it around and look at all the ports. I mean it was not like some sort of

00:37:09   Johnny, ives white universe here's this beautiful small device with one port on the back, you know

00:37:16   To keep it as simple as possible. It was clearly intended for pros

00:37:20   But somehow one of the things that I do think they lost their way on and the modularity to me really fills in that gap

00:37:29   is

00:37:30   That that the mac market needs more than

00:37:34   You know like two levels and I I

00:37:39   Famously it helped write the ship at apple, but when when steve jobs in like 1998

00:37:45   I guess or 99 maybe it was when the iBooks the first iBooks came out the ones that were orange and

00:37:54   Bondi blue and he drew the little simple four-way grid pro

00:37:58   consumer

00:38:00   desktop

00:38:02   Portable right and there was one mac for each of those things pro desktop was the mac pro or I guess the the power mac

00:38:09   G3 or whatever the ship was at the time the consumer desktop was the iMac g3

00:38:15   The pro desktop was the power book and our laptop and the consumer laptop was the iBook. There you go four max

00:38:24   one for everybody

00:38:25   go

00:38:26   And you know like the iphone still has a grid sort of like that, right?

00:38:30   It's it's a little maybe more than four where you've got, you know

00:38:34   You can buy like an iphone 11 or an iphone 12 from last year to save a couple hundred bucks

00:38:40   You can get the iphone se which was just renewed with the new chips if you really want the lowest priced iphone and

00:38:47   Or or which might be both you really want the classic home button design

00:38:53   And then with the latest and greatest iphone 13s, we've got a mini and a regular

00:38:59   With with the two lens camera and then we've got the regular size and the max size with the three-legged

00:39:06   Or three three lens camera

00:39:09   done

00:39:10   and I feel like the mac lineup inherently needs more spots and and they've really

00:39:17   If you go from the silicon

00:39:20   out

00:39:21   It you you see that that's their strategy

00:39:24   There's there's and it's funny because it's the last thing mac users have always talked about right?

00:39:29   Like we've never been silicon obsessed and I I you know

00:39:32   I can't tell you the differences between like the intel core i7s and i9s and i5s and

00:39:39   Why can you why can you configure an i5 that's so expensive? I don't get it. I don't understand it

00:39:45   Whereas the the lingo behind the m1?

00:39:49   Family to me is so clear. You've got the regular m1 and it's just great as is you don't need to upgrade at all

00:39:55   And the regular m1 chip that debuted in november 2020

00:40:00   Is a terrifically powerful cool fast long battery life

00:40:05   Thing for macbook airs and a consumer 13-inch macbook pro. You can put it in a mac mini

00:40:12   You can put it in ipads now terrific

00:40:16   then you go to pro and then the pro is for the

00:40:20   The better 14 and 16 inch macbook pros, but then there's the max which again

00:40:26   I I said this on my last episode with casey list the worst name

00:40:30   For a for a podcaster, right? You can put it

00:40:34   You put it in right? I cannot say you say max and it's we're talking about max max chips max, right?

00:40:41   So you've got a max max. Yeah the max max

00:40:44   But you've you know, you've got these two extra tiers for pro laptops pro and then max and then you've got with the studio

00:40:52   Two tiers the max from the laptops and then and one more level above it the ultra which is you know?

00:41:01   Clearly given how much copper two pounds of copper goes into the studio

00:41:06   It is not feasible for a laptop or certainly not a laptop

00:41:11   Anywhere vaguely resembling, you know, the macbook pros that came out last year or earlier

00:41:16   Yeah, but that's like a clear each tick up that ladder is

00:41:21   Clear performance wins and clear thermal trade-offs, right?

00:41:26   Like when you get to the ultra and you find out that it yes, it fits in this seven inch by seven inch square

00:41:32   Only three point something inches high, you know remarkably small box

00:41:38   For the power, but you know, you find out it is two pounds of copper that the m1 max chips don't need for the same thermal

00:41:45   Characteristics, you know, you're like, oh, yeah, you know that that's that's way too powerful to go into

00:41:51   a macbook pro

00:41:53   And there's clarity with that but then you get to the modularity and to me

00:41:58   I still wonder why if if there's a mistake that apple made over the last 10 years that I really feel

00:42:07   You can't pin it on the silicon apple silicon transition it to me

00:42:11   It was just just just an own goal was getting out of the display game. They never should have stopped making

00:42:17   27 inch displays and I know that there were issues in the early years with

00:42:22   You know and retina is what we wanted what everybody wanted was a 27 inch retina display

00:42:26   Just like the imac but without the actual mac. Just let me plug anything into it

00:42:31   And I know that there were problems where like initially they had to have two video controllers to drive the you know

00:42:37   That's how you got all those pixels and they they just made it work and made it seem like one big display to the system

00:42:43   And there might have been issues doing that with an external display over a thunderbolt cable

00:42:49   But it was obviously technically possible at some point because lg was doing it right there, you know

00:42:54   And del shipped a 27 inch what we would call retina display, which they've canceled years ago

00:42:59   But that's the modularity that to me that they really lost for a few years there and booger even said it to you

00:43:06   In your interview with him that one of the use cases. It's it's so super common for pro users is to want to

00:43:14   take a macbook pro back and forth from their desk and just unhook a cable and go somewhere else or

00:43:20   In a lot of scenarios. I know people who've worked in like studio and you know actual student lowercase s studio environments where like

00:43:28   Your office they you just set up a bunch of displays

00:43:33   And as a designer you just carry your macbook around with you and you can take it home

00:43:37   You could go to a coffee shop. You can go to a corner sit in a lounge chair or you can just go to one of these

00:43:42   You know

00:43:44   Tops or like a countertop and just plug it into any display and now you've got a big

00:43:48   real big display to spread your workout on

00:43:51   And that's got to be super common on like movie sets commercial sets anywhere where people are shooting video where people are, you know

00:43:59   You might want to start putting together a rough cut of the edit and you're using a macbook pro because it's a dynamic situation

00:44:05   But then as soon as you can you want to plug it into a big display

00:44:07   right

00:44:10   yeah, I mean the the

00:44:12   Idea of modularity referring to hey you keep a display for 10 years and you upgrade your desktop

00:44:18   Two or three times in that period of time. I think it's valid

00:44:22   Right. I don't i'm not arguing against it necessarily. I just think it's it's worth noting

00:44:28   That the definition has if not shifted

00:44:30   Expanded and I say expanded because we don't actually know

00:44:34   We don't actually know what the new mac pro is going to look like right and you you talked about that a little bit earlier

00:44:41   So do we think it's going to have a bunch of cards? Do we not do we think it's going to look significantly different?

00:44:45   Do we think it's you know, pci heavy etc?

00:44:49   And that me if it is if it is then that means the definition has expanded

00:44:56   To include both the original definition, which is you can put a bunch of cards in this thing

00:45:00   right and add on a bunch of additional physical storage or or long-term storage etc and

00:45:05   It means a monitor right an external monitor and it's like it's it's like an expansion of that now

00:45:11   You could say look look the xdr was an external monitor. So the definition was already there

00:45:16   I just think that it's interesting the way the the studio is being

00:45:22   Positioned as something where hey, this is extensible. I think that the biggest way that it plays out is that

00:45:27   Is the the performance right like the performance of this machine is so

00:45:33   Unmistakably better and more insane than anything else you can buy

00:45:40   For the price for the average user for the desktop user that they actually get away with it

00:45:45   Right because of the performance because you're able to say

00:45:49   Hey, this machine is one you could conceive it'll be using in in 10 years

00:45:54   And you could just be plugging a bunch of additional things into it. It's just got such just massive performance overhead

00:46:00   you know for for what it is and for

00:46:02   What you can buy right now that this thing is sitting it's got legs, right?

00:46:08   Like it reminds me like that when they were talking when they showed the performance charts and when you can actually compare the real world performance

00:46:14   As we were doing our testing and all that and especially as we you see some of the ultra

00:46:19   Benchmarks, which I didn't I don't have an ultra to test but as you see some of the actual real world tests of it

00:46:25   It reminds me of that scene and I think it's uh, triple x

00:46:29   Vin did this Vin Diesel movie. It's like kind of like a camp. Do you remember the scene i'm talking about? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah

00:46:35   I hate to admit it, but i've seen the movie. Yeah. Yeah, and it's a when he goes there's a scene where he's talking to

00:46:42   The Q equivalent, right? Yeah, there's always a Q equivalent because it's like a bond bond like like a rogue-like

00:46:49   of bond and he's

00:46:51   showing him all of the different weaponry and he's showing them the car that he has for him and

00:46:56   He basically says, you know, I want all of that in here, right? Like i'll take it all i'll take all the weapons, right?

00:47:03   Just put them fit them all in the car and then he proceeds to use them all over the next the car chase, right?

00:47:08   But that idea that you're just going to say hey, I want performance I want

00:47:14   Power I want I want performance per watt. I want pure performance

00:47:18   I want some modularity and I'd like the ability to have an external monitor that I like and it just you sort of get it

00:47:25   All in there. It's very difficult to argue that this thing doesn't deliver on needs

00:47:31   Right, and it's it's a very clear deliverable

00:47:34   Situation that makes it very easy to sell and very easy to talk about. It's just a matter of how long it's going to

00:47:42   sort of

00:47:44   Last in terms of extensibility, right? And I think that's the argument the modularity argument people are trying to to wrap their heads around

00:47:51   All right. Let me take a break here and uh, thank our next sponsor. It's our good friends at back blaze

00:47:57   They're back sponsoring the show love this company seven bucks a month

00:48:01   No gimmicks or add-ons or gotchas and you can back up unlimited backup for your mac or pc

00:48:08   Your movies your music your photos your videos all of your projects all of your data

00:48:13   All of it gets backed up to their cloud service seven bucks a month. That's it and you think well, yeah

00:48:20   But i'm sure when they say unlimited that means like up to like one terabyte. Nope, whatever's on your mac

00:48:25   It all goes up there. They have nearly two exabytes of data storage under management and counting

00:48:31   That is i'm so glad they put this here because I have no idea what an exabyte is an exabyte

00:48:36   is two billion gigabytes

00:48:40   That's 55 over 55 billion files have been restored for customers over the years that backblaze has been doing this

00:48:47   They have web restores

00:48:50   for access anywhere in the world or

00:48:52   Or you can restore by mail

00:48:55   Actual physical mail because you cannot beat the bandwidth of shipping like an actual hard drive or a flash key a usb flash key

00:49:03   They'll overnight it right to your door like disaster strikes. You need the whole thing like two terabytes

00:49:09   You got to get it. You need it by tomorrow morning have them send it and they have a restore return refund program

00:49:15   You buy the hard drive restore

00:49:17   They ship it to you. You restore your mac you set it back up then you send the drive back to them

00:49:22   Within 30 days you get a full refund so you don't even pay for the hard drive

00:49:27   You get it you restore send it back to them get all your money back

00:49:31   If you're worried about accidentally deleting files for an extra two bucks a month. That's it

00:49:36   Just two extra bucks a month. You can increase your retention history to an entire year

00:49:41   So like if you're worried that like, oh well, it's great to back everything up

00:49:45   But what if I delete something today and then six months from now? I want it back

00:49:49   Guess what two bucks a month gets you out of that?

00:49:51   They have been recommended backblaze by just about anybody new york times mac world tom's guide nine to five mac and more

00:49:57   I personally have been using them for probably like 10 years at this point long time

00:50:02   They have a 15-day no credit card required free trial. Just go to back blaze

00:50:07   b-a-c-k-b-l-a-z-e.com

00:50:09   the talk show

00:50:12   And that's 15 days. You have plenty of time to upload download some files. Try it out. Seriously back your stuff up

00:50:19   Great mac software too, by the way, it just runs on your mac

00:50:22   It never ever gets in your way easy to configure easy to see what the status is, but it doesn't interfere with anything

00:50:28   It just you just install it. It's terrific. It's mac software by mac users for mac users go to backblaze.com

00:50:34   The talk show let's try to I you know, I I did I googled it

00:50:41   It seems like vin diesel did not win a best actor award for triple x

00:50:45   so

00:50:48   No, I was worried I I don't think he I think it was he was robbed yeah here

00:50:52   totally robbed

00:50:55   Should have stormed the stage and slapped somebody because he was robbed that was that was his masterpiece before we get to the mac pro

00:51:01   Let's try to go backwards here

00:51:04   And sort of fill in the gaps of where we think the mac lineup is headed as now as we head towards the end of the m1

00:51:12   series and go to the m2 and we

00:51:15   Even if we're talking about like mac books and consumer products it you have to still talk about the mac pro because

00:51:22   John, turnis teased it at the end of the thing

00:51:25   I guess what he said. I hate to not have it quoted

00:51:28   But basically what he said is with the m1 ultra we have our final chip in the m1 family

00:51:34   But we haven't completed the transition to apple silicon yet

00:51:38   We have one more machine to come the mac pro, but it it if the mac pro is coming like at

00:51:43   wwdc in just a couple months

00:51:46   And it's based on m1

00:51:49   It would seem as though it's using the m1 ultra or

00:51:52   If they're doing something glued, you know, like put two m1 ultras together

00:51:58   They're not going to give it a new name like the m1 extreme. It would just be

00:52:01   Dual m1 ultras or something like that. Well, I give you know, maybe we should talk about the the mac pro now

00:52:07   We'll save the mac book discussion for later. Well, I think look the studio just like capra the studio is so

00:52:12   Good

00:52:14   Like it's very difficult to argue that it's not good. You can definitely have

00:52:19   Well, I think a lot of people and we can I mean if you want to talk about display separately

00:52:23   Whatever you could talk we could talk about that too

00:52:24   you can definitely have qualms about the display one way or another in in terms of its panel quality or

00:52:29   feature set or or frankly lack of

00:52:32   Ability to work properly, but the the studio is just really

00:52:39   Good, it's really really hard

00:52:43   To argue that the studio is not a good machine

00:52:47   Your only argument you're going to find from a lot of people is that oh I need more in terms of modularity, right?

00:52:53   I have special needs and that's where the mac pro kind of steps in which makes sense

00:52:58   Like that's this is our missing piece. They're saying we're going to you know, get the m1 into this thing that we know

00:53:03   Some of you really need. Yeah. Well, I I kind of feel like that's my takeaway

00:53:07   It was a it's a delightful teaser as somebody who's a pundit and podcaster, you know

00:53:13   To because it gives us infinite we can just talk about this for hours

00:53:17   Literally, I the two scenarios seem to be either the mac pro is going to go to apple silicon

00:53:24   between now and

00:53:25   wwdc, I would guess at

00:53:27   wwdc if that's the case that I I really don't see them having an

00:53:31   April event after having had a march event just to do the mac pro

00:53:35   And then may you're too close to

00:53:38   wwdc, I mean presuming that

00:53:40   wwdc will be you know, like the second monday of june or something like that the traditional schedule and you're talking about announce, right?

00:53:48   Yeah, like that's my view announce then ship q4

00:53:51   Right or like september or october just say late say later this year give give give themselves some slack

00:53:59   but that's sort of what they did with the

00:54:01   The current mac pro back in 2019. They announced it at wwdc

00:54:05   They had them there for attendees to to ogle and look at and they had this dude the pro display xdr

00:54:13   Were there on display for everybody to look at and they said these products will be shipping later this year

00:54:18   And then they shipped later that year. I I would think something like that where they would announce the mac pro with dual

00:54:26   You know or starting with it the m1 ultra and going up to dual m1 ultras

00:54:32   I don't know what that technology would be. I don't know why they wouldn't give it its own name, but there'd be some sort of

00:54:38   you know well beyond my

00:54:40   Just about anybody's so you're saying basically you don't see them just saying hey m1 ultra

00:54:47   Is what you get in the mac pro. I don't think it has there has to be something more

00:54:50   I think so and the pattern that i'm seeing is

00:54:54   With all of their pro max there's two tiers, right?

00:54:58   And now there's not a lot of them, but we've got the the macbook pros go from the m1 pro to the m1 max

00:55:05   And the mac studios go from the m1 max to the m1 ultra so I would guess that there's some similar

00:55:13   look if you just need the the the

00:55:16   The least performance in the mac pro which is starting from you know race car level of performance

00:55:23   You can get it for whatever the price is for this

00:55:26   But if you need more you can go up to this something like that. I don't know

00:55:30   But if it happens in june, I would think it'll ship later in the year

00:55:34   It'll let them announce it now and put up the benchmarks

00:55:38   Where it still isn't getting beaten in single core performance by the 999

00:55:44   MacBook air running the m2 right right which is going to happen right the m2 right will have faster single core performance

00:55:53   And it'll start to look weird and so I always thought that the people

00:55:57   Spitballing ideas of when apple is going to announce that the rest of the transition

00:56:02   The people who are thinking that they could overlap

00:56:05   The m2 with the m1 introduction because there were some people who thought maybe we'd see like new macbook airs this month, too

00:56:12   We're running, you know

00:56:14   Yeah, introducing the m2. I'm not saying they couldn't do that and intel has obviously done that, you know and had

00:56:21   new generations of

00:56:23   Chips that come out before the xeons, you know years before

00:56:27   But why why if you were in complete control of it like apple would you do it that way?

00:56:32   But I know that like german and mark german and I think ming qi quo

00:56:37   And a few other people with their ear to the ground on the supply

00:56:41   Chain side of things are speculating that the mac pro might not come till next year

00:56:48   It on apple silicon that to me seems unlikely

00:56:51   And again, I have no inside information. No sources. No little birdies, but they said, you know when they introduced apple silicon in

00:57:00   Wwdc 2020 they said it's a two-year transition

00:57:03   And it seems to me like they've been firing on all cylinders even with those two years being

00:57:10   quite disrupted by covid

00:57:13   It doesn't seem to me like they're going to miss that and I think announcing

00:57:18   The last mac to go to apple silicon exactly two years later at wwdc

00:57:24   2022 would would keep them right on schedule and

00:57:29   You know make tim cook a man of his word that it would be a two-year transition and then ship

00:57:35   Later in the year two years after the you know, the first round of m1

00:57:42   Consumer max shipped so I still kind of think that that's what they're doing. I have no idea how they're going to pull it off

00:57:47   I guess

00:57:48   the people who think otherwise are just thinking that if the m1 ultra is the

00:57:53   Last of the m1 chips then what is what's left for the mac pro, right? I mean, so they I guess

00:58:00   Let's uh scheme theory it right. So the two

00:58:03   most obvious options here would be either for them to offer an m1 ultra and then

00:58:10   Some sort of m1 ultra quad configuration right which the way the interconnect works, you know

00:58:17   The interconnect is two chips, but it does not rule out them

00:58:21   Doing more, you know like the architecture does not rule out them doing more. So let's say it's an

00:58:26   They keep the letter of their word in that

00:58:30   This is the last chip in the line by calling it an m1 ultra quad or something, right?

00:58:35   All right m1 ultra times two right m1 ultra max, but the other possible scenario is that they introduce the m2 with the mac pro

00:58:43   Right and say hey, this is the pinnacle. This is the new pinnacle and that way it doesn't get lapped for

00:58:52   Eight months six months, you know what I mean in nine months

00:58:56   I don't know how long you know before they introduce the m2 into the rest of the line out of those two

00:59:00   I would say it's probably more likely that they do like an m1 ultra quad

00:59:05   Personally, yeah rather than making the m2 because I think the m2 is such a like a

00:59:10   A nice watershed moment for them. They can use it to push their most

00:59:14   If this thing is not going to sell like crazy, right? Right, like they know that it's going to sell in limited quantities

00:59:20   Comparably speaking. So why not use their big marketing moment and their big

00:59:25   watershed moment to introduce

00:59:28   the m2 into like the macbook line rather than

00:59:32   Using the mac pro as as that option. I'm just I don't think this is extremely lucky

00:59:36   I'm just kind of like talking out the theory, right?

00:59:38   And so I think that that's that's the way I look at that and you know, especially considering that the m2

00:59:44   Given patterns, right if we follow the patterns

00:59:48   The m2 is extremely likely

00:59:51   To have even more impressive power per watt ratings. It's going to be much more well received much

00:59:57   The most well received in a laptop, right or in a portable

01:00:02   Yeah at introduction. Yep

01:00:04   Yeah, and you know and the the idea I spitballed on my show last week with casey lis is just okay

01:00:11   So we've got this footprint with the mac studio and it looks you know, you squint your eyes

01:00:16   It looks like two mac minis stacked on top of each other

01:00:19   But who's to say the mac mini couldn't get a lot smaller, right that you can make you know

01:00:24   Because look at how small cell an iphone is which I know doesn't have the m1 but it's you know

01:00:30   The a15 is you know, roughly, you know the guts of it what's going to be an m2?

01:00:35   I really think that they could make a mac nano for lack of a better name that is defined solely by the ports

01:00:42   Well, what what ports do we absolutely need to have on this? That's how big it it'll be, you know

01:00:47   Because it won't wouldn't need the thermals. It doesn't need a fan. It's so two usbc's

01:00:52   Yeah, two usbc's and or maybe three if one of them's for power

01:00:58   Something like that, right, right, right. I don't know it it's but I do think the other thing too and again, I don't know

01:01:04   jack squat about the johnny suruji

01:01:07   whole area of engineering

01:01:09   of why

01:01:12   it's

01:01:13   the but

01:01:14   Just observing the way not just apple's chip team, but just the way the industry works you come out with these new

01:01:20   Processes and you can say this is the the the world's greatest

01:01:27   Maybe they'll get the three nanometer. Maybe it's like a new five a new version of five nanometer for the m2 series

01:01:33   But it's a new process

01:01:34   and the consumer level

01:01:36   Chips come first and then you you know

01:01:40   It takes more time because you have to do that first then they ship first then a way to put two of them together

01:01:45   and get a pro version that comes later and then there's four of them together and you get the max and

01:01:50   You know and you you grow it from there, but it just seems like that's just the way the industry works. It just

01:01:56   So I can't see how they're going to have

01:01:58   the mac pro version of the m2

01:02:01   Ready that it just seems like that would be the last version, you know

01:02:05   Which is why I think it's most likely to be like the m1 ultra quad or whatever

01:02:11   The other ideas for the mac pro that would separate it from the mac studio because that's the other thing

01:02:15   I I just want to say this it's is that the

01:02:17   the tournes teaser

01:02:20   For lack of a better name i'll always call it. Let's just call it the tournes teaser

01:02:25   Of the mac pro at the end of the event

01:02:27   I think one of the reasons is of course everybody who wants a mac pro has been waiting to hear about it

01:02:32   So they kind of had to say maybe they felt like they had to say something

01:02:35   But the other thing is if they hadn't said that

01:02:37   People could reasonably look at the highest end config of the mac studio and say well, I guess that's the new mac

01:02:44   Yeah, okay the ram the the maximum amount of ram you can put in is only only 128 gigabytes

01:02:51   But compared to today's mac pro running intel that's actually a very small minimum, right?

01:02:56   The performance is good, but you can't add gpu

01:02:59   If you really are just need I need all the gpu I can get and all I need a cpu for is to run the software

01:03:06   That runs the stuff that goes to the gpu. That's that's

01:03:09   That's my pro task. You can't really do that with the mac studio you but but you could you could certainly believe that apple

01:03:17   might some version of apple in the multiverse

01:03:20   Thinks that the maxed out mac studio

01:03:24   Is is that's great for pros. That's it

01:03:27   Right. So by saying but we still have one more to come it's you know, it's a way of saying this mac studio

01:03:34   It's awesome. We know it's great for many pros, but it's not that's not the mac pro

01:03:38   right, right

01:03:41   So it that would it's trying to tell people what version of the multiverse they're in right?

01:03:45   But that those would be those would be my two ideas for ways just broad broad strokes to separate, you know

01:03:52   Well, why would somebody be interested in this hypothetical? Well, not even hypothetical gpu and ram and ram

01:03:59   Yeah, that's and that would be my guess

01:04:01   It is some kind of way and I know that all the ram so far in the unified memory architecture is on the system

01:04:09   On a chip and it's shared and there's all sorts. It must be fascinating how they've got the ultra to work

01:04:15   with these bridges where

01:04:17   Each of these they're like bridges between systems on a chip and each of the systems on a chip has

01:04:23   64 or 32 gigabytes of ram max

01:04:26   But they talk to each other in a way and do it fast enough that it that the system

01:04:30   The software can see it as one big pool of up to 128 gigabytes of ram

01:04:35   My guess would be something something where you can have extra ram slots and there'd be some

01:04:41   penalty to pay

01:04:44   versus the unified memory architecture

01:04:46   but

01:04:48   Compared to like today's mac pro or today anything you can buy on the x86 architecture

01:04:54   It's not even a penalty. It's only a penalty that you would pay

01:04:58   Compared to having it all right on the system on a chip

01:05:03   And so if you really need a giga or a terabyte of ram you can do it

01:05:09   and there'd be like up to 128 gigabytes of ram that is unified memory and it's the very fastest and

01:05:16   The system would just you know, it's sort of like swap swap space

01:05:21   But instead of writing it to a disk you'd be writing it to even more ram

01:05:25   Right, right. That's yeah ram ram to ram. So uma to right non-uma swap

01:05:32   I mean, that's what that's I think the the most likely scenario

01:05:36   If you're talking about extensibility for a pro user and somebody says hey, I love one terabyte, you know 3d files, right?

01:05:43   And why why do you not have a machine that can do that for me?

01:05:46   Because uma doesn't mean anything once like, you know 128 gigabytes of uma doesn't mean anything when I get to that point

01:05:53   You know, I end up hitting slowdowns and this isn't a machine for me

01:05:56   And so they could say hey you could do that and you'll take like a 10 performance hit

01:06:01   But it's still faster than the fastest machine on the market

01:06:03   Right and you know and you you i'm thinking that in theory you'd only hit that performance thing when you're doing a task

01:06:10   a single task that

01:06:12   Goes past the 128 gigabytes max of the unified memory, right? Right. And so, you know

01:06:18   Nothing, I do whatever go past that and somebody in the scientific community or doing some kind of crazy big render

01:06:27   Of that that you need, you know, they have these examples now where they're showing

01:06:32   You know that that that there are it's fanny pack versus backpack, right?

01:06:35   Right, like every most everybody's fine with their fanny pack. They got the chapstick in it

01:06:39   They got their keys and if you need to get in your backpack to get your snacks or your camp stove out

01:06:43   It's going to cost you time and energy and awkwardness to get there, but you've got it if you need it

01:06:49   Yeah, that's it. I think that can that could work. Maybe that would be the name of the chip design fanny pack backpack fanny pack

01:06:54   I like it. I I would really like to see I would really like to see johnny serugi call it a fanny pack

01:07:01   The

01:07:03   Yes, it'll elaborate in a testing lab and say now here's where we developed fanny pack

01:07:08   I i've never met him in person yet

01:07:11   I would love to because he certainly seems like a fascinating individual and you and I are lucky enough in this racket

01:07:16   Even though over the last two years we didn't didn't get to see anybody. I would love to in these videos. I find it. So

01:07:22   I I it never ceases to amuse me how angry johnny serugi seems and and

01:07:29   He doesn't seem angry in in like he's angry at people. It seems to me like he's just angry at

01:07:35   inefficiencies in chip design

01:07:37   Right, that's who you want. You want to zeal it, right?

01:07:40   So it's like when I see a piece of hardware not performing to spec it makes me so mad

01:07:46   Right when I find out that our our our most our our most devoted pro users

01:07:53   Are shuffling all of this data from system system memory to gpu memory

01:08:00   And paying a non-stop penalty back and forth with every frame they render i'm just furious

01:08:06   I can't I could not stand it. I couldn't sleep. I haven't slept in three years. I'm so angry

01:08:10   Right, right

01:08:12   But I do think I I because you know that then there's there's the and again it gets to that modular

01:08:18   Inside the box as opposed to the box being you know, the actual mac being part of the modular setup to a display ram would be one

01:08:26   and then now here's where i'm really just

01:08:29   Spitballing because I don't know what this would be but you might have a better idea but something something expandable

01:08:35   gpu

01:08:37   where it's not

01:08:38   Amd or nvidia gpu's which that that that story is over in my opinion

01:08:44   That's that's an intel x86 architecture thing. It would be from apple, right but something

01:08:49   Where you can add gpu capabilities

01:08:53   inside the box

01:08:56   You know, I don't know what the what nature would be something you could just plug in

01:09:01   I mean because obviously the internal architecture of the chip is gonna you know

01:09:05   Obviously you're gonna have the gpu on board which they seem to be in in early benchmarks to be very respectable, but they are nobody's

01:09:13   Research grade and or crypto

01:09:16   Mining and or high-end gaming grade gps, right? They're very good

01:09:22   They're very very very good, but they're not

01:09:24   Pinnacle right and it seems to me everything about this era of apple silicon is about pinnacle

01:09:30   Right, they they are no they are no longer saying. Hey

01:09:33   Max are amazing to use but you're not going to get the edge right because we believe the ease of use is better

01:09:41   It's it's sort of like

01:09:43   it's sort of like nintendo exiting its

01:09:46   Gameplay era you know what I mean?

01:09:48   And i'm not saying it is or it should but it sort of feels like that in some ways

01:09:52   But they are trying to do it without compromise obviously that that'd be the thing

01:09:56   So it'd be like nintendo saying hey our new machine is twice as fast as the ps5

01:10:00   And you play it with your nose, right? Like they're not giving up on the on the

01:10:07   Fun and familiarity the whimsy right, right, right, right the whimsy exactly and in apple's case their whimsy is theoretically

01:10:14   Ease of use right? It's that's always been their thing. It's like hey, you know, it's accessible. It's easy to use

01:10:20   it doesn't get in your way as a professional and as a creative and that was what the the

01:10:26   Attraction was to people who weren't in it to prove that they were good at using computers

01:10:32   Right. I think there's a certain a certain amount of that and i'm not saying it's necessarily bad

01:10:38   It's just it is what it is. I've been that person

01:10:40   Right who was wanted to build a machine and utilize the machine and max it out just to prove that I could

01:10:46   And just to just be like hey i'm good at using computers. I'm I want to maximize my usage but in all reality

01:10:53   I even if I build the best machine in the world, I utilize its maximum capabilities for

01:11:00   Maybe a couple of hours at a time, right?

01:11:02   Like i'm maybe a very high performance game right that i'm playing or whatever most of the time it sits there and doesn't do shit

01:11:08   And so it's not really all that important

01:11:10   It's I did it because I wanted to and that's great and apple has generally shied away from that

01:11:16   Right. They're not in the business of doing things technologically

01:11:19   Or in hardware because they just because they could right they want to do it in in sort of search of a user or a user's

01:11:28   Needs and that has historically been the way that they go about this, but I think they're sort of exiting that era

01:11:33   Not at least not in their minds. They would never say they would right because they philosophically they want to keep that

01:11:39   but

01:11:40   You no longer have to say

01:11:42   Oh, this apple computer is the best computer i've ever used. I just wish it was more powerful

01:11:47   You're not going to have to say that anymore. They don't want you to have to say that

01:11:49   so if you extend that philosophy philosophy and

01:11:53   theory to gpu's

01:11:56   Then it would stand to reason that they're about to get into the gpu game and the mac pro is where they begin

01:12:01   Yeah

01:12:02   Because that's the one

01:12:03   The cpu's really do seem to stand toe to toe with anything else on the planet

01:12:08   Performance-wise and when you compare performance to what it really you really can't say they're they're the best

01:12:13   I mean, it's it just hands down and yes if you have some kind of legacy code

01:12:17   That's that's only available and would be a bear to port away from x86

01:12:24   Sure, then your best solution still might be some sort of x86 system if you've got code that needs to run it or you know

01:12:31   If you're running if it's windows based right and what are the fastest windows machines you can buy? Well, they're still x86 and if

01:12:38   Extricating your software dependency on running on windows is

01:12:43   Significant maybe you're starting the project. Maybe you're like, whoa, you know

01:12:47   Maybe we've got a you know

01:12:48   Hedge our bets here and start porting something so we can run to the mac whether it's an internal tool or a commercial tool

01:12:55   I i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of companies are doing that again

01:12:59   You know publicly available software or private internal software. It might be happening

01:13:03   But in the meantime, you still need to do that

01:13:05   But the the gpu story is still where you can't look at the the mac studio

01:13:12   With the ultra and say this is the highest performing gpu on the market hands down and I really i'm with you

01:13:19   Reading between the lines. I think apple part of their

01:13:23   Last five years of okay. Let's rethink this back to the drawing board. Why aren't we the greatest computing?

01:13:30   Performance company on the planet. I was trying to trying to explain to jonas the other day talking about the mac studio about

01:13:37   like when I was his age in the early 90s the the

01:13:42   the

01:13:43   workstation market and the pc market

01:13:45   Were completely divided right and that there are these companies and he's heard of them

01:13:51   I mean, they're not, you know, it's not they've completely been forgotten but like silicon graphics and sun

01:13:56   and you know and and

01:13:59   Their starting price for getting like a silicon graphics workstation on your desk was like 15 20 000

01:14:04   in

01:14:06   1990 you know, it's it was insane

01:14:09   and apple

01:14:11   Dabbled, you know, like arguably the mac 2 fx which I think came out in 1989

01:14:16   And had like close to 20 000 price tag about that

01:14:20   Yeah, it was you know, like arguably, you know, like one time one mac

01:14:25   They sort of reached into workstation territory performance wise and then just you know, sort of you know as often happens

01:14:33   Yeah, just sort of like a fitness start

01:14:35   and you know and then it it

01:14:38   the x80 intel and the x86 architecture sort of ate the rest of the

01:14:43   Architectural world until arm came up from the bottom on performance per watt and and surpassed them

01:14:50   but

01:14:51   You know it it's easy to forget that, you know, like by

01:14:53   By you know, 10 15 years ago all those companies were gone, right? You know, they're right

01:14:59   and

01:15:01   workstation just became

01:15:03   Not a different class, but just the definition of the high end of pcs

01:15:07   It was still running the same operating system as a 400 consumer box. You could get it best buy

01:15:14   And you know, it just happened to be a 15 000

01:15:19   workstation with lots of ram and

01:15:21   You know some kind of crazy cooling systems. They keep the gpu from

01:15:25   Catching on. Yeah. I mean my definition of an elden ring machine was the previous definition of

01:15:32   A high-end workstation, right? Right. I mean sure obviously with some concessions tool to my particular use case

01:15:39   And away from things like banks of storage or redundancy and things like that, but at its core

01:15:44   Performance, you know from a performance perspective. That's where we are

01:15:49   so that that that to me would be my

01:15:51   I don't know how that would be with the gpu but the other aspect of modularity

01:15:56   is and apple really seems to be doing this is

01:16:00   Within limits and they're not going to do an infinite number, you know

01:16:06   They're not going to have 17 different max to choose from, you know

01:16:10   just a couple of form factors and then within each form factor a couple of tiers of performance, but basically

01:16:17   Letting you decide where you want to spend your money and if you if you happen to know

01:16:22   That you need as much ram as you can get but you really don't need storage

01:16:28   You can configure a max studio with a low amount of ssd storage and 128 gigabytes of ram

01:16:35   Or the other way if you need eight terabytes of ssd storage, which is you know by ssd standards a lot

01:16:43   You can get it and then you could just take the minimum amount of ram on the machine, you know, it's so there's you know

01:16:49   But I feel like the thing they don't have is okay. Let's say

01:16:54   Whatever your business is maybe it's aerospace engineering and you're you work at boeing and you test the the the wing stability

01:17:03   of a new airplane design

01:17:05   And it doesn't it's I don't know. I don't even maybe that's I think that's cpu, you know

01:17:10   Let's just say that it's a cpu intensive task. You need gobs and gobs and gobs of ram

01:17:15   If you could configure a machine with a terabyte of ram, you'll take it if you could get two terabytes

01:17:20   You'll take that, you know another forty thousand dollars just bill it to mr

01:17:24   Boeing, but you don't need gobs and gobs of gpu. Well, then that that should be modular

01:17:29   You shouldn't be you shouldn't be forced to pay for like the world's greatest most

01:17:35   Most performant gpu if all you really need out of a mac pro is ram or vice versa if you're doing

01:17:41   Some kind of crazy thing where you need as many gpu cores as you can possibly fit in a box and have the system see

01:17:47   But you don't need a preposterous amount of ram then you shouldn't have to pay for that either especially not at custom build prices

01:17:53   Because that's what apple's doing. They're custom building

01:17:56   They're custom building people's silicon, right?

01:17:58   And you know, obviously the quote unquote people that they are building this for are

01:18:04   Theoretically a class of customer versus an individual but you are basically saying, you know, you're getting custom built

01:18:11   silicon and so it's a bargain at twice the price is a funny statement, but

01:18:15   In all reality you couldn't go to intel because people have tried

01:18:19   You couldn't go to intel and tell them eight years ago ten years ago eight years ago

01:18:24   Hey, we don't like the way you're doing things like this is really annoying and frustrating

01:18:28   And if could you like 2x this overnight, that would be lovely or overnight, you know

01:18:33   But and they would just be like, hey, we got a roadmap man, you know, like

01:18:37   Chill and so apple probably had those conversations and apple's got a lot more clout than the individual user, right?

01:18:45   I was so they probably went to itdell and said hey, we want these things and intel's like nah, you know, we've got a roadmap, right?

01:18:51   And they said all right. We'll just custom build it for our customers then right and that is a that's an interesting tag to take

01:18:57   And if you're if they're doing that

01:18:59   Then theoretically they should be able to adjust twiddle those dials of like cost and modularity and capability

01:19:07   in order to

01:19:10   Make their costs worth it to develop these things but also not

01:19:14   Saddle a user who's never going to use them with the costs. Yeah on their end

01:19:19   Yeah, I and that's that would be a goal. I would think I I really do think that if apple couldn't

01:19:25   Convince intel to steer their roadmap into into apple friendly ways. There's no way any

01:19:30   Individual customer is right and I I think the best example of that is the long delay between the pre-retina

01:19:38   MacBook air and the retina macbook air. Yes, and you know, I was told off the record by you know, very good sources the you know

01:19:45   It was intel's fault, you know that there was you know

01:19:48   Basically nothing from intel that would let apple build the retina macbook air they wanted to make and they had to you know

01:19:54   Even apple had to wait until there was a chip that they could build the macbook air

01:19:58   With a retina display that they wanted to and that they were proud of and thought was thin enough and looked like the future

01:20:04   You know and was moving in the right direction. It was

01:20:07   Years behind where apple thought it should have been in their hands, but you know wasn't their control

01:20:13   Wasn't under their control which i'm sure

01:20:16   i'm sure was the

01:20:19   the big top down

01:20:21   Empties behind so much of this. I mean you have the bottom up impetus of hey, we can accomplish this and we can do this and

01:20:29   Our silicon teams can deliver this which will generate sales

01:20:33   But there's probably not probably explicitly

01:20:36   Also that that uh whole layer of this is out of our hands and we never want it to be out of our hands again

01:20:42   Yeah, and I I don't know how how useful the analogy is and I know it's

01:20:48   Extraordinarily unoriginal it gets made all the time, but it is sort of like being a consumer company like honda or mercedes-benz

01:20:56   or volkswagen and

01:20:59   Why have you know a formula one team why?

01:21:03   Why build race cars?

01:21:06   You know and and build these crazy engines and you know part of it is prestige and pride and that you

01:21:14   maybe want to

01:21:16   It's a magnet for engineering and design talent too, but I you know, i've always been open to the idea

01:21:22   I know far less about cars than most people especially even

01:21:25   Including you I know because we've talked we talk about them a lot, but i'm i'm open

01:21:30   I think there's got to be something to the idea too though that it trickles down

01:21:33   Right and that's something like the vtech technology of my youth that honda

01:21:38   You know debuted in like their race cars and then first came in the honda prelude

01:21:42   Which I always thought was like the best car name because they it was a prelude of technology

01:21:47   That was going to come to the accords and the civics and the cars that people actually bought, you know

01:21:52   I I just think it's it's

01:21:54   Well, I think the more proletariat and fall this loosely proletariat example of this at least at least more grounded is the mercedes e-class

01:22:02   Right mercedes e-class debuted. I think three-point harnesses and side airbags and a bunch of other stuff

01:22:08   And maybe not three points. So don't get on me car people but you know, they they debuted a bunch of safety and security

01:22:15   equipment the later trickled down the line not just into

01:22:18   Other mercedes but into everybody's cars, right?

01:22:21   They they had to have it as standard from a selling perspective or whatever

01:22:25   But if that high-end car with the additional expense hadn't existed

01:22:29   It would have taken longer for those things to make it to market and that is you know

01:22:35   absolutely

01:22:37   Proven to be a thing

01:22:39   So whether you think of their prestige racing team as something where that is like a skunk works for new features or whatever

01:22:46   It's certainly true that the high end of the line tends to debut features that become

01:22:51   oftentimes

01:22:53   Necessities or expected and then once the customer expects them and once it's become de rigueur

01:22:59   Or you know part of the the fabric of what's expected in that class of car. It's unavoidable at that point

01:23:06   Yeah, and i'll i'll toss out an area that I do know more about which is cameras and that in the traditional camera market, you know

01:23:13   You know canon sells, you know

01:23:15   Thousand multi-thousand dollar lenses, you know for and and they've got some crazy lenses that if you don't know you need it

01:23:23   You definitely don't need it

01:23:24   but then you look at like the sideline photographers at the super bowl and there's

01:23:28   There's photographers there with these

01:23:31   Lenses that need their own little legs to stand on because the glass is so heavy

01:23:36   Well, what did serving that market do for the consumer market who were for years and years and years were buying point and shoots

01:23:44   Well it the technology did trickle down and stuff like autofocus and you know, yeah

01:23:49   Autofocus especially is a huge huge thing and then most people don't realize that but autofocus was absolutely developed for the sports market specifically

01:23:59   And available only in the top-end cameras of the time and then you know

01:24:03   Definitely trickled down to a consumer point and shoot over the next two decades, right?

01:24:07   And to the point where then once it came you it would be hard to convince somebody like of our children's age

01:24:13   That autofocus didn't used to be a thing

01:24:16   You had to turn the dial and trust your eye

01:24:20   And you know and they oh and they'd have little tricks like that little thing right in the center would look sharper

01:24:26   If the thing in the you know, there were ways to split die up. Yeah, but yeah

01:24:30   Yeah, you just you know, you would just end up shooting a lot of out of focus photos

01:24:33   Yep, and and of course like once the technology exists it gets refined and refined and refined right because the initial

01:24:42   Autofocus was contrast based autofocus

01:24:45   Well initially it was diopter based and then contrast based and then you move from there to pixel based which is the most common

01:24:52   Uh methodology now still where basically on a pixel by pixel basis. It says hey do these two things match up?

01:24:58   Right, you know and if they if they do they're in focus, so there's just like lots of really interesting

01:25:03   ways that that technology does trickle down I do think that

01:25:07   When you apply it, I mean to bring it back to the mac pro like when you applied to some like the back pros

01:25:12   I think the gpu could absolutely be

01:25:15   That thing for the mac pro because we're sort of working in reverse from that right now

01:25:21   Like the the macbook airs processor for for better or for worse, you know

01:25:25   Or not enough for better for worse, but in general terms is going to run the mac pro, right? Like the mac

01:25:31   The m1 yes architected up and more powerful version, etc

01:25:36   But a version of the macbook airs processor is going to run the mac pro and it debuted in the macbook air

01:25:41   Right, right. I would technically debut in the iphone, but we you know, let's just call it m1

01:25:45   so that's backwards from where you would normally expect but

01:25:50   edge case like high-end

01:25:52   performance

01:25:54   You know edge of the envelope stuff is still out there to be conquered by apple and gpu's are a big big one

01:25:59   And so I could absolutely see apple debuting like an apple

01:26:03   g1 gpu in the mac pro

01:26:07   And then in five years or three years, you know, the macbook has a macbook air has a g1. Yeah, right

01:26:14   Yeah, or or g2 or whatever the case yeah or a g something right the g, you know, exactly, you know

01:26:19   they they used to use x to say that it was extra special, you know, the the

01:26:24   A the a11x or whatever, right?

01:26:28   They I could see them doing like the g1i or something like that, you know tak an eye on to mean it's we took this great graphics

01:26:35   Processor and shrunk it down to fit in your phone and it doesn't get hot and doesn't suck the battery

01:26:40   Yeah, but now you can push, you know, the two trillion polygons or whatever you want, right?

01:26:46   Now you can play fortnite and max settings on your iphone and you know, yeah. All right

01:26:50   Let me take a break here. Thank our next sponsors or good friends at trade

01:26:53   Coffee, hey trade coffee ships coffee right to your home

01:26:58   They connect you to the freshest and best tasting coffee that you've you'll ever make at home by partnering with our country's best craft

01:27:07   Roasters these are independent businesses from both big cities and small towns and trade

01:27:12   Customers are truly impactful for these independent roasters. You're supporting independent roasters all over the country by by buying coffee from trade

01:27:19   And it's often the largest source of new growth for them

01:27:23   So you're not just buying it from some tasteless or some big conglomerate or something like that and their coffees are expertly tasted

01:27:31   They their team

01:27:33   Taste tests thousands of copies to keep 450 kinds live and ready to ship every day

01:27:39   There's no one perfect coffee, but there is a perfect coffee for you and trades human-powered algorithm of professional coffee

01:27:47   Tasters will help you find it and they have a first match guarantee. They are so confident

01:27:52   That they'll match you correctly the first time you order that if they don't they'll take your feedback

01:27:59   And an actual coffee expert will work with you to send a brand new bag to you for free to adjust it

01:28:05   It's that personal of service and they are that confident that they can personalize from the plethora of options

01:28:11   You might think oh 450 coffees or options or something like that. That's overwhelming. How am I going to choose? No, no

01:28:17   No, they've got like a thing online

01:28:19   You tell them what you like what your tastes are there

01:28:21   They'll match you with a coffee that they are so confident that you'll like that

01:28:25   They'll ship you another one for free if you don't like it

01:28:28   Whether your friends call you a coffee snob or you just know it when coffee tastes really perfect their coffee experts

01:28:35   Will know what to recommend for you. They have delivered

01:28:38   Over five million bags of fresh coffee to more than and have had three quarters

01:28:44   750,000 positive reviews that's three quarters of a million good reviews for trade coffee. It's terrific. I've tried it

01:28:51   It is really really good. You can tell as soon as you open a bag

01:28:54   Ah smells so good. Really really good

01:28:57   They are offering new subscribers from this show a total of 30 bucks off your first order plus free shipping

01:29:04   When you go to drink trade.com

01:29:06   Slash the talk show go to drink trade.com

01:29:09   Slash the talk show get 30 bucks off your first order

01:29:14   That's more than 40 cups of coffee for free just because you're smart enough to listen to the talk show once again

01:29:19   Drink trade.com slash the talk show 30 bucks coming down the home stretch anything else on the mac pro any other?

01:29:25   Spitball ideas on what they could do. Do you think do you think the pro display xdr is getting revised?

01:29:30   There's the craziest rumor was from that ross young who's who's a display analyst who still thinks that there's a pro

01:29:38   27-inch

01:29:40   apple display coming which to me seems like the most bananas prediction i've ever heard like

01:29:46   I totally get the division between the mac studio display or the studio display and the pro display xdr, right as you know, two

01:29:54   three to four thousand dollars

01:29:56   In price difference there and definite easily discernible technical differences

01:30:01   But I kind of feel at the high end of the display market a lot of stuff has changed since 2019

01:30:06   it's been a long three years for stuff like local dimming zones and

01:30:10   right

01:30:12   And and if you're in that market, it seems like you you know, you really want the best you want the least

01:30:17   What do you call it bloom? You know, like when?

01:30:19   White text on the black background, you know, you you don't you don't want to see any bloom anything else

01:30:25   yeah, well once you do use i'm just i'm honestly glad that I

01:30:27   i'm glad that I I had tested the xdr so long ago and then sent it back so long ago that

01:30:34   I I didn't have it to compare because I probably would

01:30:38   It probably wouldn't be much more bothersome to me

01:30:41   but i'm coming off of like a 2014 inch iMac and so that's why I didn't lean too much into the the

01:30:46   Display, I say look it looks good to me. I didn't lean too much in display comparator and comparators because I have like an LG curved

01:30:55   Gaming monitor, which is quite good, but it's not the word

01:30:58   Hey, I bought it for response not for you know, high image quality and so that's fine

01:31:03   But then I have this 2014 iMac which has been my main machine for a long time

01:31:07   And then I have this other display this studio display

01:31:11   And so like the studio display to me looks good

01:31:14   But I understand a lot of people were really bothered by bloom and all of that stuff and I get it

01:31:18   But it looks great to me. I mean, especially in comparison to the 2014 iMac, which whatever, you know

01:31:23   It looks pretty good and is fine for home use so to speak

01:31:26   I don't know if there's room in the lineup for another one in between

01:31:31   So what are you thinking like 2500 bucks? Is that what we're thinking? I don't see it

01:31:35   I just don't I you know and I get it that people want their dream

01:31:39   Display that ticks off every box they want and comes in at a reasonable price, but I feel like this is it I always

01:31:47   I I think it's a shtick that the macalope

01:31:52   perfected years ago

01:31:54   Which would apply to mac criticism from the pc side and especially iphone criticism from the android side where?

01:32:02   You know apple would announce a new iphone in september

01:32:06   And the android side of the fence would be like well

01:32:10   It doesn't have this and here's an android phone that has it and it doesn't have that and here's an android phone that has it

01:32:16   And it doesn't do this and here's an android phone that has a you know, 20x optical lens

01:32:22   But all those android phones are different phones, right?

01:32:24   It's not like it's like so

01:32:27   You if if one of those issues is your pet issue

01:32:30   Then you could you could find a phone that had it but it's they'd speak that android has this that and the other

01:32:36   But there is no one android phone that has this that and the other and so yeah

01:32:40   And I break out the duct tape, right? Right. And so I sort of feel like the criticism of the studio display is like that

01:32:47   Where it's like well, it doesn't have local dimming zones and it doesn't

01:32:51   Have it's not oled and you know, it doesn't do hdr

01:32:56   it's just a p3 color gamut and oh you could get

01:32:59   this display that's

01:33:01   4k at 27 inches and it has some of these features and it's like

01:33:06   none of them are saying

01:33:09   That if your baseline is you want 5k resolution at 27 or 27 inches or bigger?

01:33:15   This is the best panel on the market right now there, you know, and no it doesn't have some of those other features

01:33:20   but there are no there is no one display you can go out and buy that ticks all those boxes and

01:33:25   27 inches with 4k resolution is just not it's not retina by mac standards and I know the pc world is different in that regard

01:33:34   And the way that high does, you know

01:33:36   High resolution works on windows and I know that gaming

01:33:39   gamers in particular aren't even interested in all those pixels because they don't want to push them, you know, it's

01:33:43   Mm-hmm

01:33:45   It's it's criticism coming from people who I don't think get what mac users want

01:33:49   Yeah, I mean, I think that the bad value crowd, you know in terms of this studio display

01:33:53   Is very much coming from that place. I think you've kind of summed it up nicely that if their conclusion is a bad value

01:33:59   Don't buy this

01:34:00   It's they're seeking the edges of the envelope in ways that people don't even

01:34:05   Register the vast majority of customers for this monitor don't even register, right? Now

01:34:10   I think there is a section

01:34:13   Of those users that should pay attention to that criticism and should judge, you know

01:34:19   Whether or not this is something that they want to invest in and that's the high end of that market, right?

01:34:23   So let's call them the top

01:34:25   10 of all studio customers right should really ask themselves like do I want the best image quality possible?

01:34:32   Do I want high response times does local dimming bother me and they should take those?

01:34:36   Those criticisms seriously and make a judgment call based on that

01:34:40   I don't think the vast majority of people are going to or should to be honest

01:34:44   I will say update since my last episode of the show. I

01:34:48   Said on the show that I would like to see the nano texture before I make a purchasing decision

01:34:53   And my local apple store here in center city, philadelphia doesn't have them on display king of prussia mall

01:35:00   I think I said on the show 15 miles away. It's I measured it's 19 miles away

01:35:04   My wife and I went shopping on saturday had lovely time. It was such a nice like hey life is getting back to normal

01:35:10   We're spending a day at the mall and having a having a lovely casual time

01:35:13   I did get to see the nano texture display and I love it

01:35:17   It's I haven't ordered yet because i'm an idiot and I know they're back ordered and I should order it

01:35:22   I should have already done it but i'm going to and it was funny because I was sort of thinking that because the apple stores

01:35:27   Have such pleasant lighting that it might be a bad environment to compare but it actually is lighting

01:35:34   Yeah, but it's actually it was terrific

01:35:36   It was actually terrific is because it's like you can absolutely see the lights reflected once you

01:35:41   Know to look at it and I knew it was impressive

01:35:44   When even my wife who isn't picky about such things and if we had others shopping to do, you know bought other stuff

01:35:50   It wasn't like we went all the way out there just so I could look at the nano texture display because in which case

01:35:55   I would have had to go by myself not have surprised me either

01:35:57   Right, but you know, there was a bit of an eye roll at the okay, you know

01:36:02   How long is this going to take in the apple store, you know, and we went in but even

01:36:06   Even we've all been there even amy was like, oh wow. This is totally

01:36:10   This is amazing. I can't believe this, you know, and you know again, it's not like the regular glossy finish displays look bad

01:36:18   But when you look at the nano texture one the the decrease in glare

01:36:23   Inside the apple store is just tremendous and for me with the sunlight issues in my office. I think it's great

01:36:29   I do get what people are saying that it makes it look a little less sharp

01:36:34   but I have for my eyesight I have to take my glasses off and

01:36:38   Really risk putting my nose up against the screen and I could see okay. I I see that this is not so sharp

01:36:44   I don't get that close and so

01:36:46   It's you know, I I think as a spitball I don't own it yet

01:36:51   And so I can't really give a first-hand review

01:36:53   I only looked at in the apple store

01:36:54   But i'm confident enough that it's worth 300 bucks more that i'm gonna buy one

01:36:58   I think that if you have really really good eyesight

01:37:01   You could probably see a difference in sharpness and it might bother you. I totally get that but the decrease in

01:37:06   Reflectivity is so tremendous. I can't I can't wait to get it

01:37:10   Yeah, I I don't think I really need it in my environment

01:37:13   I've been I have the non obviously nanotexture for this display or this review and i'm trying to decide which one i'm in order

01:37:20   Because I probably will order a studio as I mentioned i'm on a quite an old iMac. So it's about time and I I do

01:37:26   I do like the nanotexture because that's the one that's the xdr I have

01:37:30   Yeah to test I had one to test for a bit and it was the the nanotexture and it's fantastic

01:37:36   I mean the no glare is like zero glare. It's not the typical non-glare which is like less glare, you know

01:37:42   It's it's zero. It's like a black hole for glare, which is amazing

01:37:45   but I didn't have it to compare against like sharpness wise I can't say that the xdr is just

01:37:50   You know

01:37:52   Unfathomably good to most people. Yeah, you know, they've never seen a monitor like this in person. It's so good, right? But it's also

01:37:59   Insanely expensive so it's never really on my radar as something that I would buy personally

01:38:05   I just can't you know justify it but you know the nanotexture part of it was so incredibly impressive

01:38:11   it would be hard for me to recommend against for anybody who had anything but

01:38:15   Completely diffuse no direct sunlight environment, you know

01:38:20   Which fortunately I do have like I have windows that are behind my monitor to some degree and they're usually covered by you know

01:38:27   Very diffuse blinds and there's just no direct impact on my screen from sunlight. So I don't get

01:38:33   Those rays that creep across in the afternoon or any of that jazz where it would be absolute a must

01:38:39   You know for me to to get it. So I don't I don't think i'm gonna buy I think i'm just gonna get the

01:38:43   the glossy one but I

01:38:46   I think that that's a call people have to make purely based on does sun touch your screen, right?

01:38:51   I do remember at

01:38:53   WVDC 2019 the the media we had like a hands-on tour after the keynote and they showed us stuff and and

01:39:00   They were showing off the pro display xdr

01:39:03   And comparing it to like sony's

01:39:05   20,000 reference monitor I forget, you know, there were a handful of other

01:39:10   Video pro reference monitors that they had but they had it set up in like a blackout room

01:39:18   It was like a room with black walls black ceiling black carpet

01:39:24   Right and like I can totally see how if you're you know a pro film editor

01:39:30   That's the kind of setup you want feels like home. Yeah, it feels like home. It's like your editing bay

01:39:35   That's exactly what you want, but it was impossible to see the nano texture

01:39:40   It was like you you you could have like a mirror finish and you wouldn't be able to tell in that room

01:39:48   Right. Yeah, it was one of those smile and nod situations. Yeah, like ah, yes. Yeah

01:39:54   Yeah, the other my other takeaway from having seen the nano texture in the apple store

01:39:58   Side by side it was right on the same table next to a non-nano texture one

01:40:04   So it was perfect for side-by-side comparison

01:40:06   Is if you didn't have the regular one next to it to see the reflections and the glossiness

01:40:14   The other thing about the nano texture is and I remember this now from seeing the xdr in 2019

01:40:20   It doesn't look matte to your eyes like so I totally get why they're not calling it a matte finish. It's not just

01:40:27   Calling nano texture nano texture to use fancy a very fancy

01:40:32   Three dollar series of hyphenated words to just say matte because it doesn't look matte

01:40:38   It still is kind of shiny and doesn't look rough to the touch or anything like that

01:40:42   It just somehow looks like magically the reflectivity is gone

01:40:46   Yeah, even though it's the front side of it that is

01:40:50   Treated with by blasting it to create that surface. It feels like when you look at frosted glass from the back side

01:40:56   Yeah, like you're looking at the non-frosted side of it, right? It's still soft. Yep. That's a perfect way to put it

01:41:01   All right

01:41:02   I have one last sponsor to thank and then we can get to the home stretch of the show and it's our good friends at

01:41:07   Memberful which is where you go to monetize your passion

01:41:12   With memberships it allows you a creative person to build a sustainable

01:41:18   recurring revenue and it's the easiest way to sell memberships to your audience and it is used by some of the biggest

01:41:24   And most innovative creators on the internet today and they have everything you need to run a membership program custom branding gift

01:41:31   subscriptions apple pay support free trials private podcasts for your members and tons more and they seamlessly integrate

01:41:39   With the tools you already use you can just add it to your cms to your system

01:41:46   And it integrates right out of the box

01:41:48   You have full control and ownership of your audience your brand and your membership

01:41:52   Memberful sort of stays out of the way people don't even know they're going through memberful

01:41:56   They think they're just subscribing directly to you. I I always say I should make a list of all the member memberful sites

01:42:02   I'm a member of it. The list goes on and on six colors relay.fm

01:42:06   All sorts of great

01:42:09   Creative people in the the mac and apple community are using it and it's just a terrific terrific experience as a user

01:42:16   And it's a terrific experience as a creative person

01:42:19   Which is who they're trying to reach right here through this message and you can get started for free

01:42:23   with no

01:42:24   credit card

01:42:26   Required no credit card required just get started set it up

01:42:29   See if it actually works the way they're telling you it works and just know that memberful only succeeds when you succeed

01:42:35   They only make money when you make money and you only make money when your audience is happy

01:42:40   And willing to pay to become members of your site service show whatever it is you're trying to sell

01:42:46   Where do you go to find out more go to memberful?

01:42:48   member

01:42:51   memberful

01:42:53   dot com

01:42:54   talk show memberful.com

01:42:56   talk show get started today and monetize your

01:42:59   Membership. All right home stretch. Where do we think that the the m2 stuff is coming later later this fall?

01:43:10   You mean in what device or do you think it's what do you think they're going to do because

01:43:13   My key point that I said on the last episode with casey is that I just think we haven't seen

01:43:19   custom

01:43:21   Designs for the macbook air or even the mac mini that are built around apple silicon yet

01:43:27   We still have the the industrial designs that were based on intel

01:43:30   right

01:43:32   And and the very explain so in my discussions I can't remember I probably mentioned this publicly at some point but the basic

01:43:39   And we may have even chatted about it at the time

01:43:41   But the basic idea behind that was they knew they were doing something so big and so aggressive

01:43:45   And so risky with the processor. They didn't want to

01:43:48   Screw it up

01:43:50   by

01:43:51   Trying to launch new id and like having some like hinge or something be wrong, you know, like having an issue, right?

01:43:58   That got in the way of the debut of the m1 instead

01:44:01   They took a design that had been around or a keyboard and that had proven itself. Yeah orange. Yeah, our keyboard

01:44:08   Oh god, it's happened. All right, no, it's happened. It's definitely happened

01:44:13   It's overshadowed, you know what they're trying to do with the rest of the thing, but yeah, exactly

01:44:17   they wanted to take a tried and true design that had had time to

01:44:20   mature

01:44:22   And had time that to shake out the cobwebs and understand what worked and what didn't with it and then say, okay cool

01:44:29   Now let's launch our big new bet in the processor arena into this hardware and with this hardware

01:44:35   Versus the opposite, you know, which would be like, I don't know

01:44:38   Let's see what happens with new hardware and new id and new processor and everything all at once which would have been

01:44:44   Interesting and even more exciting than say hey, here's the same computer with a different processor

01:44:49   But infinitely more risky and probably the right choice, you know to not do that

01:44:54   It certainly made our jobs as reviewers easier

01:44:57   Yeah, exactly. You're like same id. Okay now about that process, you know, yeah

01:45:04   Yeah, it is nice to concentrate on that because it's like with an iphone it's like oh man, look at all I got performance

01:45:09   I gotta talk about these edges and how it feels, you know feels against my fingers and i'm talking about the damn color and

01:45:15   You know, oh wait up at the processor and ram and oh, you know, and it's like it's a lot

01:45:19   It's a lot to juggle. So it makes it easier when you can concentrate but I think it was also just the right

01:45:24   absorption level for the public too because it was like hey, I don't think anybody was really getting all

01:45:32   Angry about the macbook air's design, right?

01:45:36   I think the vast majority of the public is like oh cool macbook air still looks cool super thin. I like it

01:45:42   You know looks good. I'll take one

01:45:44   Oh now it's like way better and probably the most powerful computer you could buy. Oh, sure. Sounds good, right?

01:45:51   So I think from the public's perspective it wasn't that hard to sell either

01:45:54   Yeah, and I think that you know

01:45:59   People know they like the macbook air, you know, they they know they like it

01:46:03   So why you know that wasn't the complaint that anybody had about the macbook at once it went to retina, right?

01:46:09   So right so wide right, right, right, you know

01:46:11   It's sort of like if it ain't broke don't fix it yet, right?

01:46:15   Don't don't try to improve it

01:46:17   But now I think we're I think we're definitely going to see new industrial design and I really think it's a good bet

01:46:22   Yeah, and I you know

01:46:25   It is weird. I guess the thing that I think of when I when I think about it as a pundit is

01:46:30   Is it a little bit weird that it?

01:46:32   At least for this first transition from m1 to m2. It's a full two-year cycle as it appears to be

01:46:40   Is that right? Is it weird that okay?

01:46:43   November of 2020 they came out with the macbook air and the 13-inch macbook pro and a mac mini with the m1 chips and

01:46:52   Everybody reviewed them and raved about the performance and that the software experience was just seamless and even if you were running

01:46:59   Mac apps that hadn't been updated yet the the rosetta 2 did it just a terrific job. You probably won't even notice just terrific

01:47:08   But then they're still

01:47:11   Untouched unchanged unmodified untweaked for two years is is two years permanently the cycle

01:47:19   It I feel like it could be you know, like it because it seems like if they've got this whole

01:47:24   suite of chips to go from the regular m

01:47:29   one the m2

01:47:31   A couple years from now the m3 but then they're going to have a pro version. That's

01:47:35   higher performance and then uh max and then ultra

01:47:39   You know that it seems like two years might be the normal cycle for this. I I don't know. Is that weird?

01:47:47   I

01:47:49   Don't think so I think for a while I think this that's the thing about these things you make these

01:47:54   You know, let's call them proclamations, right or prognostications better

01:47:59   So you make these prognostications about the lineup and I think all too often we fall into this trap of like here's what it here's

01:48:05   The new way of being perpetuity right because everybody likes to make a grandiose statement

01:48:10   But I think this is a pretty unique transition, right?

01:48:13   It's a pretty unique transitionary period and apple's timeline of everything they've done before

01:48:18   I mean think about being intel for 30 plus years

01:48:21   and then having

01:48:24   You know a change into your own processing

01:48:26   architecture and and taking control and saying hey, we're launching our own chips and we've got to obviously produce all of them and and

01:48:34   Put them all into our own hardware and market them and sell them and make sure that they work right and all of that stuff

01:48:42   I just think it's too much of a black swan to say let's here's the new pattern

01:48:46   So maybe the first launch of it is two years and then the thereafter it's whenever the new chips are ready, right?

01:48:53   And maybe that's one year. Maybe it's three years. I don't think that they're under any pressure

01:48:58   Because I think that previously the pressure was exerted externally people would say oh the new intel chips are here

01:49:04   When are the new macbooks coming with those intel chips in them because i'm going to wait for that

01:49:10   And I think that that external market pressure

01:49:12   Definitely drove a lot of the cadence as much as they would like to say it probably didn't it's you know

01:49:18   It drives some of it for sure. And so I think that that's now they're sort of are able to chart their own course

01:49:24   and it's going to be a matter of

01:49:26   Hey, when do we think we can ship a meaningful update that will move the needle on sales?

01:49:31   And that obviously there's internal pressures there, but they don't have this external pressure

01:49:36   So I think it's sort of a we have to wait and see rather than oh, this is the new pattern

01:49:40   It could be two years. Absolutely

01:49:43   Stands to reason makes sense. It'll trickle down through the line

01:49:45   They'll shake out the kinks and then they'll launch a quad or or or dual configuration or more powerful configuration

01:49:52   I could see that happening definitely through m2 maybe even m3, but it's sort of all bets are off really

01:49:58   Yeah, and the other thing too is it it could I think they could get away with the two-year cycle for a few generations

01:50:05   If that's the plan

01:50:07   assuming that each new

01:50:09   added add an integer going from the m1 to m2 is

01:50:12   Fairly significant and in terms of its wow, this is actually, you know, you thought the m1 was good

01:50:18   Well now look at this it's even more efficient and faster. It's you know, it's enough of an upgrade

01:50:23   Where they still maintain their their lead that they've established over the rest of the industry and performance

01:50:30   You know, they're not by doing it once every you know

01:50:33   a new refresh of the whole lineup every two years isn't giving the competition room to catch up if each

01:50:39   additional generation is enough of a

01:50:42   Within the apple silicon world is a big upgrade. The other thing I look at though pattern wise is

01:50:49   it's it's the iPhone that has sort of

01:50:53   spoiled at least my mind into thinking that the

01:50:58   the ultimate goal if everything works as planned and is

01:51:03   Nothing goes wrong is annual right that once a year every September unless there's a global pandemic

01:51:11   In which case it's only delayed by a month and it's october

01:51:15   There's a new generation of iPhones and that there's a steady series of improvements every single year that you can notice and sure

01:51:23   If you upgrade every single year

01:51:25   you don't really notice that much of a difference going from the iPhone 11 to the 12 or the 12 to 13 but

01:51:32   By doing it every year when like a normal person you go from an iPhone 10s to an iPhone 13

01:51:39   You're like wow, this is way faster and the battery lasts longer and it's really nice

01:51:43   but that that one year cycle for the phone that that's the phone being the phone and the the

01:51:49   The 1 billion users around the planet thing it I look at the iPads which are mostly on like an 18 month cycle

01:51:56   Right. It's it's not like clockwork like the phones where you could say the month of when they're going to announce them

01:52:02   But you know the the iPad pros

01:52:04   Every 18 months or so. There's a new generation of iPad pros and the the new iPad air that came out this month

01:52:12   You know was last updated like a year and a half ago and now it's on the so presumably like one one way to look at

01:52:18   it is

01:52:19   If you just say well now that the high-end iPads are also using the M series chips

01:52:25   You know the iPad pros and the iPad air are on the M1

01:52:28   If the M1 is a two-year cycle

01:52:31   Then that would mean the iPads are a two-year cycle too, right? Because presumably the next iPad pro is going to have the M2

01:52:37   It's not you know, what what are they gonna do?

01:52:39   It's here's a new iPad pro, but it still has the M1 that doesn't really make any sense

01:52:45   so, you know, I I don't I guess so that part of me just looking at the pattern would say maybe

01:52:50   Now that they've got their feet under them and they sort of had the first generation out the door and did it again during during a

01:52:58   A pandemic that somewhat disrupted the supply chain globally 18 months might be like the sort of goal

01:53:04   That's it's just a pure speculation on my part. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah 18 months to even 20

01:53:11   When is the MacBook so the MacBook Air was introduced

01:53:15   March 2020 like wait the MacBook Air

01:53:20   Yeah, the MacBook Air the M1 MacBook Air. No, no November 2020 November 20. Thank you. Okay. Yeah, so November 2020

01:53:29   Let's just let so let's

01:53:32   metagame it

01:53:36   Imagine your year November of 2022 like does November of 2022 that feels really long

01:53:43   Yeah to me it feels long

01:53:45   It feels long. So it feels much more like Q1 2020

01:53:50   So

01:53:54   That's that's hard it's interesting 18 months 18 months would put it two months away right right right

01:54:00   Yeah, so I don't know, you know, you know and maybe you know

01:54:04   So maybe they come out with the M2

01:54:06   I mean, you know, what's two months away? I know

01:54:09   Wwdc, so maybe and theoretically a back throw right right. So it's weird. I don't think it weird one. Yeah, you know

01:54:17   Maybe the Mac pros the M2 launch. I mean, I know I just argued against it with three segments ago

01:54:22   Right, would you have to if they announced the M2 MacBook Air at?

01:54:27   Wwdc in two months would I would I have to go to the fainting couch? No, but I would just be pleasantly surprised

01:54:33   Surprised and just think right there. Right there really they're they're more on top of their game than I expected

01:54:38   Yeah, so I mean like let's say if you go a full two-year cycle

01:54:42   In my mind if they don't introduce it to wwdc it's not gonna be until

01:54:48   November. Yeah, that's sort of or october maybe I you know october right because I think maybe like in the fall of 2020

01:54:55   Everything was a month back

01:54:56   So the iphones didn't come you didn't get announced till october

01:55:00   And then the max which I think if everything had gone according to plan probably would have been a mid-october event where instead

01:55:06   Late november, you know it, you know, and I don't think that I tweeted something about it

01:55:12   Which is now gone because I delete all my tweets, which is so relaxing by the way, highly recommend. Oh, you're smart

01:55:17   Yeah, I just I got tired of it

01:55:19   it wasn't even like it's like I tweeted something ridiculous at some point as I I did but

01:55:24   I just got exhausted with having such an online presence all the time

01:55:29   I tried to reel it back. Anyway, that's another discussion, but I tweeted something during the event about

01:55:34   Like the a15 chips, like are we seeing like this trickle out of the lineup?

01:55:38   And I just don't I think the a series chips are around for a while still. I don't think they're going anywhere

01:55:42   Yeah, I don't think so. Like in other words you could say hey one way to debut the m2 would be in the iphone pro

01:55:48   You know what I mean, right, but I just don't think that's gonna happen yet. I think we're gonna see like an a16

01:55:52   Yeah in this year's iphone pro. Yeah, so that would be my guess a16 in september

01:55:58   and then

01:55:59   The m2 which might be based on the a15 in terms of its core, you know

01:56:04   and so like the bleeding edge of their new technology is always the a series chips in the iphones and

01:56:10   Then the year later they come out in m series and then over the next you know

01:56:17   18 months trickle out to the pro max ultra tiers and that's yeah, and there's some poetic and

01:56:24   clarity driven

01:56:28   Desire to see say the mac or the ipad pro and the iphone pro both have m series chips

01:56:35   And then the iphone regular line and ipad regular line so to speak

01:56:40   Have the a series chips like there's some sort of poetic thing around that and maybe that comes to pass at some point

01:56:47   You know where like an iphone 14

01:56:50   Has just non-pro has an a16 but the iphone

01:56:57   Pro 14 pro has an m right?

01:57:01   well the the rumor somebody had was that the a

01:57:04   What wait what's the next chip going to be the a16 a15

01:57:09   What are we at? No a16 a16, right?

01:57:13   Is only going to be in the pros and that the non pros will still have the a15 that's a year old

01:57:19   Which is the same same thing? Yeah, it's the same thing, right? It's really a marketing exercise

01:57:23   But the other thing the one last point I want to I want to just get out before we wrap up and finish the show

01:57:29   Is that the one thing I think we're done with from apple across the board is the concept of speed bump updates

01:57:36   Right that you know that like well, we don't have a major redesign of this product, but you know, we're going to go from

01:57:43   You know this many gigahertz to slightly more gigahertz in the processor

01:57:49   or a slight upgrade

01:57:53   In the type of ram that it accepts or something like that or the one we've seen more

01:57:58   In more recent years is like midway through the cycle of like a 16 inch macbook pro

01:58:04   They'd come out with a new gpu option

01:58:06   Everything else is the same

01:58:08   But now if you want the highest end pro gpu in a macbook you could you can get a new option

01:58:13   I think that those days are over because of the integration of the systems on a chip

01:58:19   But I think that's a good thing. I know that it's every time

01:58:23   Things like that that that people of our generations grew up with thinking that's how computers are if you just wait six months

01:58:30   There's like a speed bump

01:58:32   I think it's actually better

01:58:34   And more it's it's easier to shop and buy decide what to buy when you know, okay

01:58:40   They came out with it. They just came apple just came out with a new macbook air

01:58:43   If you think it looks good buy it because you know

01:58:46   They're not going to come out with a new one nine months later that makes you regret it

01:58:49   And if you're late in the cycle

01:58:52   Like right now today as we're recording if you're in the market for a macbook air you you know

01:58:57   You can feel reasonably certain that if you can

01:58:59   Put off your purchase till you know the end of the year. You're probably going to see new hardware

01:59:05   You know what you're getting if you buy a macbook air today

01:59:08   Mm-hmm

01:59:10   Yeah, and that you know, the externalities had a lot to do with that obviously as we talked about a little bit the intel

01:59:15   You know kind of saying hey, we have we have new chips and apple saying, okay cool

01:59:19   We can build a new, you know, we could put build a speed bump around that

01:59:23   Right ship it mid-year and get a sales bump and you know provide users with an additional reason to buy or whatever

01:59:28   Like if that rationale goes out the window apple can confidently

01:59:31   offer

01:59:33   A powerful machine that as you said like as long as they maintain their power delta

01:59:37   They could say that look this is better than any laptop you can buy pretty much right right now and for the next six months easily

01:59:44   The best laptop you can buy and another thing it does of course

01:59:47   On the supply chain is it adds an enormous amount of predictability and cost effective, you know cost efficiencies

01:59:53   So, you know, that's good. Good. Good. Yeah, so to speak

01:59:57   Yeah, and I you know, and is it the tim cook influence on the culture? I don't know

02:00:01   You can't say it's not right that that a supply chain

02:00:04   You know by all accounts wizard is now has been the ceo now for over a decade

02:00:10   And that they've evolved all of their product lines into a more supply chain friendly pattern

02:00:15   you know, it's yeah, I mean look so you you

02:00:18   You want to workshop that conversation right and the conversation is?

02:00:22   like you have a tournes or a federie or or that cadre of

02:00:27   Leadership group and they're having the meeting and they're talking in the boardroom and they're like we want to you know

02:00:32   We got to get out from in the intel's thumb. We want to do all these cool things that we can't do

02:00:37   With intel the chip team tells me that they're confident that they can ship an iphone processor

02:00:42   In a macbook and if we scale it up and we do thermals, right?

02:00:46   It's just as powerful and in fact is way more powerful if we do it, right? We know this let's do it

02:00:51   Let's go for it. And then tim comes in and says like now tell me

02:00:55   If we went all out, you know and took a year to develop it and make it the most powerful chip you could possibly buy

02:01:03   Could we ship one and have it last for two years because in the second half of that lifespan i'll make double

02:01:11   You know, we'll make we'll make double on the chip right on on and obviously less than that overall profit margin

02:01:17   but you can imagine the profit margin going from

02:01:19   27 on the front end to 38 on the back end, right or whatever, you know

02:01:26   And I mean that's probably a big swing but you get the idea and like that that second

02:01:31   Half of that 24 month cycle they'd make a killing

02:01:35   And you know, that's where they get their additional growth out of in terms of the shareholder value, right?

02:01:40   You know that what the shareholders want to see right and they can stand behind the product and say you that the customer who's buying

02:01:46   A new macbook air 18 months after it was introduced

02:01:50   You're still getting a terrific product, you know, it's a it's a great product

02:01:54   It'll be good for years to come but if you buy an old macbook air the day before the new ones announced, right?

02:02:01   Yes, you're not getting the new one, but you're still getting a better machine than everybody else is shipping for another six months to eight months

02:02:07   Yeah, and i'm sure like that conversation, you know, but but I really am i'm sure that the way you put it

02:02:13   It's music to tim cook's ears. I'm sure

02:02:15   He probably does I I just guessed that he's not a you know, he's a gregarious person on stage

02:02:22   I think he's you know, I think you have those meetings with him like a monday morning, you know executive meeting

02:02:28   I I can't help but think that that you know, you think we could do this for you know

02:02:32   In two-year cycle that a smile cracks his face

02:02:35   It's like the heavens part

02:02:40   Anyway, that was great. I thank you matthew for your time as always

02:02:44   It's always always fun catching up to you catching up with you. Hopefully in person sometime soon ish. Yeah, it'd be nice

02:02:51   That'd be good. Wouldn't it be a little return to return to friendly faces?

02:02:55   Everybody can of course read you your fine work at techcrunch.com

02:02:59   Which i'm sure people have heard of your tweets. You're you're deleting your your your temporary stash of tweets are at at panzer

02:03:08   panzer on twitter

02:03:11   And I will limit it limited time engagement. Yeah. Yeah, so get them while they're fresh and I will thank

02:03:15   Our sponsors for the episode squarespace where you can make your next move with a website of your own back blaze the backup software

02:03:23   I run on my mac. I was supposed to mention by the way the show's coming out on march 31st

02:03:27   That's actually a world backup day

02:03:29   So you can celebrate that by signing up for backblaze even if if it's into april by the time you listen to me tell you

02:03:34   This trade coffee where you can get incredible coffee delivered fresh

02:03:38   To your house from the best roasters in the nation and memberful where you can monetize your passion with membership. Thank you matthew

02:03:45   [BLANK_AUDIO]