259: ‘Start a Bakin’ Timer’ With Marco Arment
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I don't remember if I was barefoot last year.
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I'm pretty sure if this is not the first podcast I've recorded barefoot, this is the second.
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I feel like at the beach you kind of have to be. Like,
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because, you know, everything at the beach you're constantly going in and out between like sandy and wet and dry and it's hot.
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So your only choices are barefoot or full shoes, I think. Like, everything in between is not as good.
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You a flip-flop man?
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Not really I they don't stay on like I'm a big about like walking like I take long dog walks
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I take bike rides and they just don't stay on
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Enough for that like unless you get the kind that are basically sandals if they have a little backstrap
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But that's at that point. That's a sandal. I like a flip-flop. I do feel though that
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It's tiring. He's got it. You got to do a little curl with your toes. Yeah, like kind of all the time and you
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You know, this is a bicycle town
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I terrified of riding a bicycle with flip-flops because I feel like I'm on the verge of scraping my toes up
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Yeah, it's I mean like it's not quite as bad as like riding a motorcycle flip-flops would be but it's not that much better
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My show has been very erratically
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More erratic than usual publishing wise I just posted 258 yesterday
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But I need another July episode and I like to do these shows here in person. So here we are recording again
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in the middle of the season when there's not much news.
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- Yeah, well, we say that.
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Every summer we say, oh, there's not much news
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in July and August, so we better stretch it out
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and do Q&A episodes, as you did and stuff like that.
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But it's like, actually, a lot of stuff
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seems to be happening every summer.
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- One of the things I definitely wanted to talk about
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before we get into rambling territory
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is I wanted to talk about the purported 16-inch MacBook Pro
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because there was a, I'm sure you saw it,
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but there was a report out of the supply chain that,
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I think it still suggested that it was coming in October,
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which is a little weird,
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but that it was gonna start at $3,000,
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which would be really weird,
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because right now the 15-inch MacBook Pro starts at $2,400.
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- Yeah, I mean, I don't know how much we can trust rumors
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from supply chain sources about pricing.
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- I had two thoughts on that.
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One, why trust the supply chain on that?
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They don't know names either.
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- Yeah, like pricing and naming,
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it's so well guarded the vast majority of the time.
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Like, there's almost always pricing guesses about,
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or alleged pricing leaks or rumors
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before new products are announced,
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and they're usually wrong.
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If you look at the track record of Apple rumors,
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I feel like pricing is one of those areas
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where we take a lot of guesses about pricing
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and we're wrong a lot.
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The other way they could do it though,
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is it could be $3,000 and they could just
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Tim Cook it by keeping the $2,400 one around.
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- And so there'd still be a $2,400 15 inch MacBook Pro,
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but it would be like a year old model.
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But that seems like a weird way to go with the MacBook Pro.
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It's, you know, that's like a MacBook Air move.
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- Well also, if we look at the rumors holistically,
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we look at like, you know, all the rumors
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that are going around about this, you know,
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upcoming alleged generation of laptops.
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I think they all seem to agree on one big thing,
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that the butterfly keyboard is not long for this world.
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Which I am like dancing on its grave already,
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even though it's not dead yet.
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As you know, I couldn't possibly be more happy
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that the butterfly keyboard appears by all accounts
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to be going away pretty soon.
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So if you think about like,
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if they did keep around the old 15 inch,
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what are they gonna do?
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Have that be like the only butterfly keyboard
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in the lineup for a while?
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Or like, if they hit the current air,
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and maybe keep it around at a cheaper price point next year.
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Like when the alleged new scissor switch Air comes out,
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depending on who you believe, either in September,
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October, or 2020, depending on all the different rumors,
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allegedly there's gonna be a new MacBook Air,
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and new 13 inch, and new 16 inch.
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Then if that's actually true, sometime in the next year,
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then there will be no new models with butterfly keyboards,
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unless they keep around some of the current ones
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at lower prices.
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And it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense
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they would do that only for the 15 inch
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and not for anything else like the Air.
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And it seems especially problematic that the 15 inch
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which is a high end computer that's bought
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in large quantities by businesses
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and by a lot of their pro market.
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It would be weird to have,
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if they're gonna go through all this hassle
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to get rid of the butterfly keyboard
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because of its problems, why would they keep it
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on such an important widely used model?
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It doesn't seem, that doesn't make sense.
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So I think the 16 inch is it and the pricing rumors,
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I don't give a lot of credibility to.
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- Yeah, I think so. - That being said,
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it wouldn't be totally out of the ordinary
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for Apple to release a new generation
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of an important product that costs significantly
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more than its predecessor.
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It would be not well-received,
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but that doesn't mean they won't do it,
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and that they do it all the time.
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So I think while I don't believe pricing rumors usually,
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I also wouldn't rule out the possibility
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that this new laptop might be $3,000,
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and that might just be the new starting price
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of the 15 inch class laptop, which is now 16 inches,
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that's totally plausible.
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Apple does that kind of stuff all the time.
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And another angle I was thinking about was
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Apple does, I mean maybe this doesn't matter
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'cause I think they sell a absolute ton
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of the base model configurations
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relative to any customized configs.
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But with the drop in flash storage pricing
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that's going on across the industry
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and they just drop their prices,
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Apple might just be forced by market pressure
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make less on their upgrade components as they used to.
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And so maybe they are gonna make up for that lost margin
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by just raising the base price on all the models.
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- I guess, I can't really think of anything
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that would make the price jump up that much.
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I mean, presumably-- - Apple.
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- Well, right.
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But I can't-- - They don't need a reason.
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- Right, I think it's a marketing decision,
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not in a cost of goods decision.
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I mean, presumably the display is going to be
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at least slightly more expensive
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because they're calling it a 16-inch display.
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so it's gonna be bigger than the 15.6 inch display.
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- 15.4, I think we're at. - 15.4.
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Maybe, I don't even know.
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I don't know how many of the details of the screen came out,
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but the other thing that would be nice
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and would justify to some degree a price increase
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would be if it goes to truly native retina resolution.
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- Yeah, actual 2x of what the default setting is,
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which it has never,
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which it has had when the default setting was lower
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up until 2016.
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But yeah, 'cause right now, they ship it by default
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in the scaling mode.
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- And I mean--
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- It just feels off for the highest end laptop
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in the lineup to be scaled.
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- Like the 15 inch non-retina, going up until 2012,
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the non-retina 15 inch, the last couple of years of it,
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they offered this high res option, and a matte option,
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by the way, for like $200 extra.
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it was a small price increase, and it was,
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instead of being 1440 across, it was 1680 across.
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And when the 2012 Retina version came out,
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it was only the 1440 natively,
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but you could use these software scaling modes
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to simulate higher resolutions.
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So it was like, okay, that's nice, good job,
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you can get higher resolutions,
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but if you were accustomed to the 1680 point size,
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you were actually getting worse visual quality,
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'cause it was rendering it into an off-screen buffer
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like shrinking it down to fit the actual pixels
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of the screen, so everything was like a little bit blurrier.
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And it's not a massive difference, but you can tell
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it does look a little bit worse.
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And then what made it, I think, almost misleading
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and I wouldn't say criminal, but certainly offensive
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to a nerd like us who cares about image quality,
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is that starting from the 2015 MacBook
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and then the 2016 USB-C generation of laptops,
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they increased the default resolution
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from what the panels actually were to one step above.
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So they increased the apparent screen real estate
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to 1680 at 2x now on the 15,
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but they didn't actually increase the number of pixels.
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So I almost feel like they kinda cheated.
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Like they tried to make it look like
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the screens got better and they didn't.
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And what's disappointing is that so far
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the Ming-Chi Kuo rumor about the 16 inch
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has its pixel size pinned at something
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that would suggest that they haven't actually
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increased that again.
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- Yeah, I couldn't remember if that was part of the rumor.
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- Yeah, it was like, the current one is like 2880,
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and the new one I think is 3072, something like that.
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So it's like, it's not enough proportionally,
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I don't think, to make it seem like they're actually doing
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like a true 2X of what the default setting is.
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So if that rumor is true, then it sounds like
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they haven't actually fixed this problem.
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But this is actually one thing.
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When I had a briefing with some Apple people last year,
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I actually brought this up specifically as an issue.
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I'm like, you gotta fix this for the next generation.
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'Cause like this, to me, I understand making
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that kind of compromise on something like a MacBook Air,
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where it's a lower end product,
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you're doing it to hit a price point,
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the buyers might not care as much if the screen
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is a little bit blurrier than it could be
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at its default setting, fine, that makes sense.
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But on the MacBook Pro, where you care so much
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about this amazing screen, and they talk,
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and they put so much work into the amazing screen,
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they have this amazing color and contrast and detail
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and the finishing and everything,
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possibly higher refresh rates coming down the road.
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They put so much effort into the display,
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and on their highest end laptop,
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they can't make it actual true 2x pixels.
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Any argument they have for that,
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I don't think is a good argument.
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- Yeah, I don't think so either.
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- Especially because they do it right on the desktops.
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- And they have since 2014, when the Retina iMac came out.
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Well, and it's even in the name, they even call it 5K,
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I mean, they couldn't call it the Retina 5K iMac
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if it didn't really have 5K pixels.
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So we know they can do it, and so I wish they would.
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- What else is it we have news-wise?
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How about these, how you doing with the betas this summer?
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- Oh my God.
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- I listened to the ATP, I don't know if it was last week
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or the week before, but you said more or less
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you're giving up on getting anything
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other than the iPhone update to overcast out by day one.
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- Yeah, and I'm actually, I'm doing things,
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like I spent the summer, instead of doing like all iOS 13
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and Catalyst and independent watchOS stuff,
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instead of rewriting all my stuff in Swift UI
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and everything, which is like kind of what I thought
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I would be doing like the first day of WVDC
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when we heard all this stuff, I'm like great,
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this is gonna be a packed summer,
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I'm gonna be doing all this stuff, all the new betas.
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Yeah, then I got the betas and it turns out
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they're really still pretty rough, still pretty early.
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I don't even want to touch Catalist or Catalina anymore.
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Like I did the first two betas of that,
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and I'm like, all right, nope,
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I'm done with that for a little while.
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And even the API stuff, iOS 13 is still super rough.
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It's hard to tell, like when I make something
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with the UI of it, it's hard to tell
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whether any bugs are my fault or the OS's fault.
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And so I've just decided, you know what,
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I'm just gonna focus on underlying,
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like under the hood changes this summer
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that are preparing the way for me to do more of that stuff
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in like a month or two.
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And so like, for instance, like last week,
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I spent most of the past week
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writing the sync engine differently.
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Because the sync engine, the way it's been doing it
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from like 1.0 until now, has some limitations
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and more importantly, it has some really
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incredibly intense memory usage
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when you're doing a full re-sync to the servers
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when you have a lot of podcasts.
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And at first, I thought, well, who's gonna have
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more than like 20, 30 podcasts subscribed.
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And I looked at my own account, and I have 90,
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and I'm like, all right, maybe this is more common
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than I think, and I look, a lot of users have like 200,
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300, I think the peak is something like 600 to 1,000.
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- And it isn't like one person, it's like multiple,
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it's not that uncommon to have a couple hundred
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podcast subscriptions in Overcast,
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especially after you've been using it for like five years.
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So the problem is that kind of sync engine
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fit in the Apple Watch's constraints.
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So when I want to make an independent watch app,
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which I do want to do, I can't bring the sync engine
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over until I change it.
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So now I've spent the last week doing sync
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in a pretty different way that should be much better,
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and changing the server to support it and everything else.
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So that's the kind of work I'm doing now,
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because I don't need to be using the beta SDK
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to do pretty much any of that.
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And once this fall comes around,
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I can actually install the GM versions of these tools,
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and hope they're at all ready to go
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and hope for the love of God, whoever's writing the iOS mail
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app has gotten their act together.
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Oh God, mail's so bad.
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Are you mailing betas?
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- I have it on my old iPhone 10
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and I have it on an iPad mini.
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I got so freaked that, 'cause I saw stories from people
00:13:11
◼
►
who were saying that I wasn't even running it
00:13:13
◼
►
on my main device, but it's screwed up my iCloud
00:13:17
◼
►
or my notes or something.
00:13:19
◼
►
- Yeah, that's the scariest.
00:13:20
◼
►
- And so I, and I just don't feel,
00:13:21
◼
►
it's not useful for me to try it
00:13:23
◼
►
with a throwaway iCloud account.
00:13:25
◼
►
Like if I'm not actually using my actual data,
00:13:28
◼
►
what's the point?
00:13:29
◼
►
So I'm not really doing it.
00:13:31
◼
►
What's wrong with mail on iOS?
00:13:32
◼
►
- My understanding is that they rewrote,
00:13:35
◼
►
so iOS 13 brought a lot of new changes
00:13:39
◼
►
to some of the basic UI components
00:13:41
◼
►
that a lot of the iOS apps use,
00:13:42
◼
►
namely table views and collection views,
00:13:45
◼
►
and how they manage their data, how when a new item comes in,
00:13:49
◼
►
you can animate it in instead of just refreshing the whole table
00:13:52
◼
►
as a single frame.
00:13:54
◼
►
And they made that easier, and they changed the APIs
00:13:56
◼
►
around that, and they introduced a bunch of new stuff
00:13:58
◼
►
to just make all that stuff better and easier to use.
00:14:01
◼
►
And so my understanding is they rewrote Mail entirely
00:14:04
◼
►
using Collection View and using some of these new data source
00:14:10
◼
►
And it's really early, I would say,
00:14:13
◼
►
to try to be kind to people writing it.
00:14:15
◼
►
If you use the mail app on the phone,
00:14:18
◼
►
I would not recommend installing the iOS 13 betas
00:14:21
◼
►
because there's just all sorts of bugs that you might have
00:14:25
◼
►
if it was your very first,
00:14:27
◼
►
it's not like the kind of rewrote a lot of that UI
00:14:29
◼
►
from scratch, and it shows,
00:14:31
◼
►
'cause you'll have bugs like in table views,
00:14:34
◼
►
you'll have cell reuse bugs where as you're scrolling,
00:14:38
◼
►
the title of one message will be repeated
00:14:40
◼
►
on all the cells in the screen,
00:14:41
◼
►
or they'll all say no sender instead of the actual sender
00:14:45
◼
►
the mail or you'll have rows that are inserted
00:14:48
◼
►
that are empty, problems like that.
00:14:51
◼
►
So it's, yeah, if you use iOS mail,
00:14:53
◼
►
don't install the betas yet.
00:14:54
◼
►
- I think it's gonna be interesting because
00:14:56
◼
►
it sounds to me like
00:14:59
◼
►
Apple's behind for where they really should be
00:15:06
◼
►
to ship the iPhone, a new iPhone in early September.
00:15:10
◼
►
I mean, we're like five weeks out.
00:15:14
◼
►
But I don't know that they would hold the iPhone hardware
00:15:19
◼
►
up for an extra two or three weeks of bug polish
00:15:23
◼
►
and finish just to do it.
00:15:25
◼
►
Like I wouldn't be surprised if they announced the phone
00:15:28
◼
►
on schedule but maybe it doesn't ship
00:15:30
◼
►
until the end of September.
00:15:32
◼
►
They still have the early September event.
00:15:34
◼
►
But if it's buggy, if iOS is buggy,
00:15:37
◼
►
that is when reviewers get the phones, right?
00:15:39
◼
►
We get them right after the event.
00:15:42
◼
►
It just seems like it is, you know,
00:15:45
◼
►
they're playing with fire this year.
00:15:49
◼
►
'Cause that hardware date is sort of set in stone.
00:15:52
◼
►
- And I don't think they would even delay
00:15:54
◼
►
the shipping of the phones for software,
00:15:56
◼
►
because a lot of their products,
00:15:57
◼
►
the volumes that they might sell
00:15:59
◼
►
in additional two weeks and a quarter
00:16:01
◼
►
might not matter so much to their financials,
00:16:03
◼
►
but the phone matters a lot.
00:16:04
◼
►
Like if they miss two weeks of sales
00:16:06
◼
►
because the software's a little bit rough,
00:16:08
◼
►
that's gonna hurt them in the financials
00:16:09
◼
►
in ways that are probably not worth it.
00:16:11
◼
►
I'm guessing they ship the phone on the same day
00:16:13
◼
►
they were planning to no matter what.
00:16:15
◼
►
And they just make the software as good as they can make it
00:16:18
◼
►
by that day and just hope for the best.
00:16:21
◼
►
Maybe they're gonna delay the Mac OS and watch OS,
00:16:25
◼
►
or tvOS and whatever the heck the HomePod OS is called.
00:16:29
◼
►
Maybe they delay those things a little bit
00:16:31
◼
►
in order to prioritize iOS getting out the door
00:16:34
◼
►
on that hardware ship date.
00:16:35
◼
►
- Well, but they've been doing the new watch hardware
00:16:38
◼
►
at the iPhone event.
00:16:39
◼
►
- That's true.
00:16:41
◼
►
- And I presume, you know,
00:16:43
◼
►
I mean, there's so many, always so many fewer
00:16:47
◼
►
watch rumors than iPhone rumors,
00:16:49
◼
►
but I presume we'll see Series 5 watches this fall.
00:16:54
◼
►
- I mean, maybe.
00:16:55
◼
►
The watch hasn't been an exactly annual cycle, though.
00:16:58
◼
►
Like, there's been a couple little 18-month spans
00:17:00
◼
►
here and there, and between a couple of generations,
00:17:02
◼
►
so I think it's most likely we'll see a Series 5,
00:17:05
◼
►
but I wouldn't say it's, it isn't as sure of a thing
00:17:08
◼
►
as iPhones every September.
00:17:11
◼
►
But I do think it's most likely,
00:17:12
◼
►
and I think again they're basically gonna like
00:17:14
◼
►
take the prey approach to software quality
00:17:19
◼
►
and just like try to make the deadline as hard as you can
00:17:22
◼
►
because it's going to come regardless
00:17:24
◼
►
because it's too important.
00:17:25
◼
►
With the phone, I think they literally
00:17:27
◼
►
would not even sell the phone.
00:17:28
◼
►
Or they wouldn't delay selling the phone for hardware.
00:17:31
◼
►
I think with the watch, they might.
00:17:33
◼
►
Like they might announce it that same day,
00:17:35
◼
►
and oh, it just doesn't ship for three weeks.
00:17:37
◼
►
- Yeah, or shipping in October or something.
00:17:39
◼
►
- Yeah, right.
00:17:40
◼
►
- All right, let me take a break.
00:17:43
◼
►
Thank our first sponsor.
00:17:44
◼
►
You like this, that you're having me do the sponsor reads?
00:17:47
◼
►
- Oh my god, it's luxurious.
00:17:48
◼
►
- You don't do them live on the show, though.
00:17:49
◼
►
You edit those things in.
00:17:51
◼
►
- Yeah, I record the sponsor reads right before the show,
00:17:54
◼
►
like a half hour before.
00:17:55
◼
►
Basically, whenever the livestream starts on ATP,
00:17:58
◼
►
I just finish doing the sponsor reads, basically.
00:18:00
◼
►
'Cause I do it all in a row, do the sponsor reads,
00:18:02
◼
►
do the livestream, and then I start the livestream
00:18:05
◼
►
I go refill my water cup and make sure I put my kid to bed
00:18:09
◼
►
and whatever else I might have to do in the meantime.
00:18:11
◼
►
But it's usually about a half hour before.
00:18:12
◼
►
- All right, well let me tell you about Fracture.
00:18:15
◼
►
Fracture is the company.
00:18:16
◼
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Takes your photos, prints them directly on glass.
00:18:19
◼
►
- In vivid color.
00:18:20
◼
►
- In vivid color.
00:18:21
◼
►
Look, my message for Fracture is always the same.
00:18:24
◼
►
Your phone is probably full of thousands
00:18:27
◼
►
and thousands of photos.
00:18:28
◼
►
I think I've got like 28,000 photos in my iCloud library.
00:18:31
◼
►
You've got thousands of photos.
00:18:33
◼
►
You've got family members, friends, vacations.
00:18:35
◼
►
You're probably on big, you know,
00:18:37
◼
►
a lot of people who don't work at Apple
00:18:39
◼
►
are probably taking vacations in August.
00:18:42
◼
►
- Yeah, Apple people, we're sorry.
00:18:44
◼
►
- Pick some of your favorite photos.
00:18:46
◼
►
Get 'em printed by the folks at Fracture.
00:18:49
◼
►
Hang 'em up around your house.
00:18:50
◼
►
It is, it makes your house look better.
00:18:52
◼
►
It'll make you happier.
00:18:54
◼
►
And file it away.
00:18:55
◼
►
It's not really gift-giving season yet,
00:18:57
◼
►
but it's always, always one of the greatest gifts
00:19:00
◼
►
you can give to family members.
00:19:01
◼
►
Nobody ever complains, no grandparent has ever complained
00:19:04
◼
►
about getting too many photos of their grandchildren
00:19:07
◼
►
or of dogs and cats and whoever else is in your family.
00:19:10
◼
►
They make 'em right down in Gainesville, Florida
00:19:13
◼
►
from U.S. sourced materials.
00:19:15
◼
►
It's a green company, carbon neutral factory.
00:19:19
◼
►
You can go to fracture.me for a special discount
00:19:24
◼
►
on your first fracture order.
00:19:27
◼
►
Don't forget, at the end of your order,
00:19:29
◼
►
they could give you a one question survey.
00:19:32
◼
►
Where did you hear about Fracture?
00:19:34
◼
►
Just remember to tell them it was the talk show.
00:19:35
◼
►
Or if you prefer, ATP.
00:19:38
◼
►
- Thank you very much.
00:19:40
◼
►
- So my thanks to Fracture, go check them out at fracture.me.
00:19:43
◼
►
- Yeah, they're pretty great, house is full of them.
00:19:44
◼
►
They're fantastic. - It is, yeah,
00:19:45
◼
►
I can verify that.
00:19:46
◼
►
Got a lot of cereal downstairs.
00:19:50
◼
►
I opened my big mouth.
00:19:51
◼
►
Talking about ATP, but you guys were talking
00:19:54
◼
►
about Grape Nuts, of course John Sirquiza loves Grape Nuts.
00:19:57
◼
►
- So do I, they're good.
00:19:59
◼
►
It's crunchy bread gravel.
00:20:01
◼
►
- I think Grape Nuts look like they're delicious.
00:20:04
◼
►
I kinda like a cinnamony sort of crunchy cereal.
00:20:08
◼
►
They look very different.
00:20:10
◼
►
First time I ever tried Grape Nuts,
00:20:11
◼
►
it was the most surprising taste.
00:20:14
◼
►
I just did not expect it.
00:20:16
◼
►
They really just taste like you're eating sand
00:20:19
◼
►
or kitty litter or something.
00:20:20
◼
►
- I feel like in the area of not that sugary cereals,
00:20:25
◼
►
'cause all breakfast cereal like that,
00:20:27
◼
►
it has a good degree of sugar and carbs and everything.
00:20:29
◼
►
it's really not the greatest thing you could be eating,
00:20:30
◼
►
but in the area of cereals, there's like the sugary ones,
00:20:34
◼
►
like the super sugary ones, like your Frosted Flakes,
00:20:37
◼
►
your Captain Crocs, that kind of stuff,
00:20:40
◼
►
and then there's the ones that have less sugar,
00:20:43
◼
►
like Cheerios and Grape Nuts,
00:20:46
◼
►
and I think in the less sugar category,
00:20:49
◼
►
Grape Nuts are, they do surprisingly well,
00:20:51
◼
►
'cause usually in that category,
00:20:53
◼
►
you just have some kind of weird wheat brand thing,
00:20:58
◼
►
compressed into some kind of flake or blob or shape
00:21:02
◼
►
or something and it's just really boring usually.
00:21:04
◼
►
Grape nuts have a really fun texture.
00:21:07
◼
►
Like you really gotta work hard.
00:21:08
◼
►
You really feel like I'm gonna,
00:21:10
◼
►
I'm earning these calories that I'm eating here
00:21:12
◼
►
by chomping on this gravel in my mouth
00:21:15
◼
►
that's taking forever to chew
00:21:16
◼
►
and it provides a lot more texture
00:21:19
◼
►
and I think more flavor than the other
00:21:22
◼
►
not that sugary cereals.
00:21:23
◼
►
Like Cheerios basically tastes like nothing.
00:21:25
◼
►
- Yeah. - You know,
00:21:26
◼
►
Cheerios are baby food basically.
00:21:28
◼
►
And they're quite commonly used for that purpose.
00:21:30
◼
►
- That's exactly, I still associate it, my son's 15 now,
00:21:33
◼
►
but I still associate Cheerios very strongly
00:21:36
◼
►
with when he was learning to eat solid food.
00:21:40
◼
►
- And it occupies the perfect kid food
00:21:42
◼
►
'cause it's not messy, I mean there's powder.
00:21:45
◼
►
- It does change the smell of a car forever.
00:21:48
◼
►
If you let your kids eat Cheerios in the car.
00:21:51
◼
►
The smell, you know how when you walk into somebody's house
00:21:55
◼
►
and they have a cat, you can always smell,
00:21:57
◼
►
that there's a cat lives here.
00:21:58
◼
►
Even if they're pretty clean people,
00:21:59
◼
►
you can always kind of tell,
00:22:00
◼
►
oh, you smell a little bit cat lives here, right?
00:22:02
◼
►
You can always tell if people have kids
00:22:03
◼
►
when you get into their car,
00:22:05
◼
►
'cause it'll smell a little bit like Cheerios.
00:22:07
◼
►
- 'Cause it's like sand at the beach,
00:22:09
◼
►
you can't really get all the Cheerios
00:22:11
◼
►
out of the backseat of the car.
00:22:12
◼
►
- Right, exactly.
00:22:13
◼
►
It'll always smell a little bit like that.
00:22:14
◼
►
- And it's, you know, with the kids too,
00:22:15
◼
►
it's always, when they're at that Cheerios age,
00:22:18
◼
►
they're also car seat age,
00:22:20
◼
►
and that just makes way more crevices
00:22:24
◼
►
where a straight Cheerio can get,
00:22:27
◼
►
and you wouldn't even notice.
00:22:28
◼
►
You get the kid out of the car,
00:22:30
◼
►
give an eyeball to the backseat
00:22:32
◼
►
and kinda clean up anything you need to clean up.
00:22:34
◼
►
But those Cheerios, they'll get into every crack in the car.
00:22:36
◼
►
- Oh yeah, meanwhile, then the car's being baked in the sun
00:22:38
◼
►
for the next three years, and those Cheerios
00:22:40
◼
►
are just roasting in that car seat crevice
00:22:41
◼
►
that you can't reach.
00:22:43
◼
►
That smell does not go away.
00:22:44
◼
►
- I'm always interested, 'cause we're of similar age.
00:22:49
◼
►
John Siracusa and I are very close in age,
00:22:51
◼
►
very similar backgrounds.
00:22:52
◼
►
We even share a first name.
00:22:53
◼
►
And it always is fascinating to me where,
00:22:58
◼
►
how much aligned our interests are, our perspectives,
00:23:02
◼
►
but then there's other areas where we are totally different.
00:23:06
◼
►
And so I thought it was interesting,
00:23:07
◼
►
like he was saying that when he grew up,
00:23:11
◼
►
he wasn't allowed to have sugar cereal, as we called it.
00:23:13
◼
►
In my house, I was telling you this last night,
00:23:18
◼
►
we weren't big junk food people,
00:23:22
◼
►
but my family really bought in completely
00:23:26
◼
►
to the mid-century, post-World War II Kellogg's
00:23:31
◼
►
start your day with a bowl of breakfast.
00:23:35
◼
►
So we had like a veritable selection of cereals.
00:23:40
◼
►
We always had Cheerios, my dad was a big Cheerios guy.
00:23:42
◼
►
So we'd have some Cheerios,
00:23:43
◼
►
we'd have the Corn Flakes was a big one,
00:23:46
◼
►
and then my sister and I could pick out
00:23:49
◼
►
two or three sugar cereals at a time
00:23:51
◼
►
and we'd have them open so I could have Fruit Loops one day,
00:23:54
◼
►
I could have Frosted Flakes another day,
00:23:56
◼
►
but every single day of the week
00:23:59
◼
►
was a sugar cereal day for us.
00:24:01
◼
►
- That's interesting, yeah, see,
00:24:02
◼
►
we were restricted to only weekends.
00:24:04
◼
►
We'd have like crackling oat bran on the weekdays,
00:24:07
◼
►
and then the weekends, that was the splurge,
00:24:10
◼
►
then that's when we could have such crazy innovations
00:24:13
◼
►
as like when I was a kid,
00:24:15
◼
►
that's when the Rice Krispies Treats cereal debuted.
00:24:18
◼
►
- Which did not need to exist.
00:24:20
◼
►
- No, and I remember when we got it, thinking like,
00:24:22
◼
►
this is gonna be illegal in like a year.
00:24:24
◼
►
Like, this should be illegal already.
00:24:26
◼
►
There's no way this is gonna keep being on the market.
00:24:28
◼
►
And here we are, still.
00:24:29
◼
►
- I used to, it would be something I would look forward to.
00:24:33
◼
►
I can't say I went to the grocery store
00:24:35
◼
►
all the time with my mom,
00:24:35
◼
►
but maybe like eight, nine, 10, you know,
00:24:38
◼
►
I might have been, I forget when I was allowed
00:24:41
◼
►
to stay home by myself if my mom went to the grocery store.
00:24:44
◼
►
But one of the things I liked to do at the grocery store
00:24:46
◼
►
would be to pick cereal.
00:24:48
◼
►
And in hindsight, it's kind of crazy
00:24:50
◼
►
that there's an entire aisle in a giant supermarket
00:24:52
◼
►
filled with nothing but junk food.
00:24:55
◼
►
- That's no accident.
00:24:56
◼
►
- That's passed off as a meal.
00:24:58
◼
►
- And there's so much about that too.
00:24:59
◼
►
Like the shape of the boxes
00:25:02
◼
►
is actually a huge waste of cardboard.
00:25:03
◼
►
- Oh, right, right.
00:25:04
◼
►
- It's like the most effective way to pack
00:25:07
◼
►
that kind of cereal would be in a much more
00:25:09
◼
►
like short squat box, almost like the shape
00:25:11
◼
►
of like a Pop-Tarts box, like a shorter squatter box
00:25:13
◼
►
that's deeper, but they make them
00:25:15
◼
►
these giant skinny flat rectangles
00:25:17
◼
►
so that they appear large on the shelf.
00:25:20
◼
►
They're like billboards for kids.
00:25:21
◼
►
And of course, all the sugariest ones are at kid height
00:25:25
◼
►
so that kids can see it and beg their parents to buy it.
00:25:27
◼
►
- Well, like at Whole Foods, they'll sell cereal
00:25:29
◼
►
that comes in a bag.
00:25:30
◼
►
They do have box cereal too,
00:25:32
◼
►
but they'll sell the cereal in a bag.
00:25:34
◼
►
And then I think they even label it on the bag,
00:25:36
◼
►
like this is space efficient.
00:25:38
◼
►
- Yeah, right.
00:25:38
◼
►
They're trying to tell you,
00:25:40
◼
►
'cause when we were growing up,
00:25:41
◼
►
there were bagged cereals at the very bottom
00:25:43
◼
►
and they were like the cheapo ones.
00:25:45
◼
►
So they're trying to probably get rid of that image
00:25:47
◼
►
of like, no, trust me, bagged cereal is good.
00:25:49
◼
►
I don't say I think it's a losing battle.
00:25:51
◼
►
I think that ship has sailed
00:25:52
◼
►
and no one's ever gonna think that, but they can try.
00:25:55
◼
►
One thing too, I realize like when I was a kid,
00:25:59
◼
►
just like how incredibly effective TV commercials
00:26:03
◼
►
during kids shows were at getting kids
00:26:06
◼
►
to make their parents buy them certain things.
00:26:08
◼
►
'Cause like now, like my kid now,
00:26:10
◼
►
I've been a cord cutter since before it was called that
00:26:13
◼
►
and my kid now has almost never seen TV commercials.
00:26:17
◼
►
Like, if we're like in a hotel room,
00:26:18
◼
►
we'll turn the TV on, and he'll be like,
00:26:21
◼
►
why does the show keep stopping, and what is this?
00:26:23
◼
►
Like, but, so for the most part, he doesn't see commercials.
00:26:26
◼
►
So it's interesting that he almost never
00:26:29
◼
►
requests certain exact things, like buy certain brands
00:26:33
◼
►
or certain toys, the way we would.
00:26:35
◼
►
And I just remember thinking, like, you know,
00:26:36
◼
►
the reason I knew about Rice Krispie Treat cereal
00:26:38
◼
►
when I was a kid was that I watched Saturday morning
00:26:40
◼
►
cartoons and probably TV throughout the week
00:26:43
◼
►
at different times as well.
00:26:44
◼
►
And so I always, I saw all the commercials,
00:26:46
◼
►
and I would beg for the things in them
00:26:48
◼
►
that were usually not as good as I thought they would be,
00:26:50
◼
►
like the Typhoon, hovercraft, piece of crap.
00:26:54
◼
►
And like, you know, but now, so,
00:26:58
◼
►
I wouldn't say like so few kids watch commercials,
00:27:00
◼
►
but certainly a lot fewer now watch commercials
00:27:03
◼
►
than did like in the '80s and '90s.
00:27:06
◼
►
I wonder, like, how does that change,
00:27:08
◼
►
like, how do our kids even know like what to ask for?
00:27:12
◼
►
I mean, YouTube, I guess?
00:27:15
◼
►
In hindsight, I can definitely agree
00:27:17
◼
►
that I was more influenced by kid show commercials
00:27:21
◼
►
than I would have as a smart alecky kid
00:27:26
◼
►
who was fairly cynical from a young age.
00:27:31
◼
►
I would have sworn up and down that,
00:27:33
◼
►
that's for dummies who get brainwashed by commercials.
00:27:38
◼
►
And meanwhile, I'm asking my mom for Mr. T cereal.
00:27:41
◼
►
- Right. (laughing)
00:27:42
◼
►
And we don't even go,
00:27:44
◼
►
There were the two avenues of marketing that hit us hard.
00:27:47
◼
►
There's the commercials were the big one,
00:27:49
◼
►
and then also we would be going to a lot more retail stores.
00:27:53
◼
►
We would go to a toy store to buy certain toys.
00:27:56
◼
►
Now we just get 'em on Amazon.
00:27:57
◼
►
And so we don't, my kid is hardly ever in a toy store.
00:28:01
◼
►
I don't even know if any toy stores are still in business.
00:28:03
◼
►
- Right, everything just comes in a brown Amazon box.
00:28:06
◼
►
- Right, so the only method of marketing
00:28:08
◼
►
that seems to work on him is when his friends at school
00:28:11
◼
►
have something, then he'll often ask for one like that.
00:28:14
◼
►
- But that's about it.
00:28:15
◼
►
And a lot of his friends at school have similar parents
00:28:18
◼
►
who were like, you know, also are pretty much cord cutters
00:28:20
◼
►
and Amazon shoppers.
00:28:21
◼
►
So like, the amount of like things that he asks for,
00:28:25
◼
►
specifically, you know, certain brand names
00:28:27
◼
►
or certain types of food, are very, very low
00:28:29
◼
►
compared to what we did when we were kids.
00:28:31
◼
►
- Yeah, definitely.
00:28:32
◼
►
I think it's also the cereal racket,
00:28:37
◼
►
before we move on to other topics, the cereal racket--
00:28:39
◼
►
- This is better than tech news, I mean.
00:28:40
◼
►
- The cereal racket was always interesting to me
00:28:43
◼
►
because it was a very vibrant,
00:28:46
◼
►
it probably still is, I'm guessing,
00:28:48
◼
►
it's a very vibrant distinctive mix
00:28:50
◼
►
between all-time classics that haven't changed ever,
00:28:55
◼
►
Cheerios, Corn Flakes.
00:28:58
◼
►
- Yeah, and Grape Nuts are-- - I think Grape Nuts
00:28:59
◼
►
are in that. - Yeah, like there was
00:29:00
◼
►
the article I mentioned on ATP,
00:29:02
◼
►
the No Grapes, No Nuts, No Market Chair,
00:29:03
◼
►
I think it was called, like it said how they changed,
00:29:06
◼
►
they had to change the recipe twice, like once to add,
00:29:09
◼
►
they added back a little bit of the wheat hulls,
00:29:12
◼
►
they could call it whole grain.
00:29:13
◼
►
And at one time they fortified it with vitamins
00:29:16
◼
►
to make it comply with something.
00:29:19
◼
►
So yeah, most of these things like corn flakes,
00:29:22
◼
►
I think they have similar things,
00:29:23
◼
►
but they've modified very slightly over time,
00:29:25
◼
►
but they're basically the same thing.
00:29:26
◼
►
- But you've got these staples, you've got these classics.
00:29:29
◼
►
And then there's the, like I said, Mr. T cereal.
00:29:33
◼
►
I mean, I'm dating myself here,
00:29:34
◼
►
but I remember Pac-Man cereal was a big deal
00:29:37
◼
►
in the early '80s.
00:29:38
◼
►
- So they would just take whatever the fad of 1982,
00:29:42
◼
►
and then they would make a breakfast cereal out of it.
00:29:44
◼
►
- Of course, why wouldn't you?
00:29:45
◼
►
- I seem to recall, I think Nintendo had a cereal
00:29:47
◼
►
at one point.
00:29:48
◼
►
- Oh yeah, every big, yeah, I'm sure there were
00:29:50
◼
►
like Mario cereals and stuff.
00:29:52
◼
►
I'm sure there was probably a Sonic cereal
00:29:53
◼
►
when I was going through that time.
00:29:56
◼
►
'Cause they were always, cereal companies are shameless
00:29:59
◼
►
with licensing and everything.
00:30:00
◼
►
You can get pretty much anything.
00:30:01
◼
►
- Yeah, they should do like an iPhone cereal.
00:30:03
◼
►
Just you're eating like little tiny iPhones.
00:30:05
◼
►
- I wonder, could they get the super ellipse shape
00:30:08
◼
►
- The icons, can they get that right?
00:30:11
◼
►
They couldn't even make Pac-Man right,
00:30:12
◼
►
but Pac-Man did not look like Pac-Man.
00:30:14
◼
►
- Yeah, it seems like the breakfast cereal factory tooling
00:30:17
◼
►
is not incredibly precise.
00:30:19
◼
►
- I always enjoyed too the small print on the cereal boxes.
00:30:24
◼
►
Would people sue?
00:30:28
◼
►
I don't know, but it's like they'd show you
00:30:30
◼
►
having your bowl of Cheerios
00:30:32
◼
►
and then there's a bunch of cut-up strawberries in it
00:30:34
◼
►
and then they have to tell you
00:30:36
◼
►
that the strawberries are not included
00:30:37
◼
►
And it's like, pretty sure fresh strawberries
00:30:39
◼
►
are not gonna do well in this box, but.
00:30:41
◼
►
- Yeah, strawberries shown for scale.
00:30:43
◼
►
Yeah, or like the part of this complete breakfast nonsense.
00:30:46
◼
►
- Oh, right, right. - That's always fun.
00:30:47
◼
►
I forget the story, there was some story behind that
00:30:49
◼
►
of basically, there was some reason why the cereal companies
00:30:53
◼
►
would advertise as part of this complete breakfast,
00:30:55
◼
►
and it was, again, as with many food claims,
00:30:58
◼
►
it's total BS, and it's like, the better breakfast
00:31:00
◼
►
would be that exact same thing minus the cereal.
00:31:03
◼
►
Like that would actually be a better breakfast
00:31:05
◼
►
than whatever you're adding the cereal to.
00:31:06
◼
►
- Right, yeah. (laughs)
00:31:09
◼
►
I also think, I think it's complete nonsense,
00:31:12
◼
►
I know that people debate about this,
00:31:14
◼
►
and I think different, this is,
00:31:15
◼
►
it's very personal, in my opinion,
00:31:17
◼
►
the way your body metabolizes,
00:31:19
◼
►
whether you're a morning person or a late-night person.
00:31:22
◼
►
But they really successfully sold all of North America
00:31:26
◼
►
on the idea that breakfast is the quote,
00:31:28
◼
►
"most important meal of the day."
00:31:30
◼
►
Like if-- (laughs)
00:31:31
◼
►
- Yeah, I feel like whatever meal your food goes in
00:31:35
◼
►
that you sell, you wanna make that claim.
00:31:37
◼
►
Well, I just think, you know, but that's a bold claim
00:31:42
◼
►
and they had like nothing to back it up.
00:31:43
◼
►
They were just like, well, we'll just tell people that.
00:31:45
◼
►
Yeah, and it makes--
00:31:45
◼
►
- I think what we've found is like,
00:31:46
◼
►
because now we have a variety of,
00:31:49
◼
►
like, you know, I know people who eat all sorts of breakfast
00:31:52
◼
►
from like large breakfasts to, you know,
00:31:54
◼
►
super unhealthy to super unhealthy to no breakfast
00:31:57
◼
►
and they all seem fine.
00:31:58
◼
►
It seems like it might be the least important meal
00:32:00
◼
►
of the day, actually.
00:32:01
◼
►
Like, it seems like you can do pretty much
00:32:02
◼
►
whatever you want for breakfast
00:32:03
◼
►
and it's not gonna have a massive effect on you.
00:32:09
◼
►
- What else do we have?
00:32:12
◼
►
What's on your mind?
00:32:14
◼
►
- I don't know, I mean there's a bit of minor stuff.
00:32:16
◼
►
Like there was the whole listening to Siri requests thing.
00:32:20
◼
►
I don't know how much there is there.
00:32:21
◼
►
I don't really care that strongly about that honestly.
00:32:23
◼
►
- So that broke right before Molten and I recorded
00:32:28
◼
►
over the weekend.
00:32:30
◼
►
looked into it, The Guardian is usually pretty good, but I don't get this. Like, you definitely—I knew,
00:32:38
◼
►
we've always had to agree to some kind of terms with Siri that would acknowledge that they're
00:32:43
◼
►
letting you, like for quality control purposes, listening, but that they're doing it in a
00:32:51
◼
►
completely anonymized fashion. Like, it just did not seem like new news to me.
00:32:56
◼
►
- I think the difference is, and they talked about this
00:33:00
◼
►
this week on upgrade, the difference is that
00:33:03
◼
►
when you agree that like, oh, when you push the Siri
00:33:07
◼
►
button on your phone and you ask it to do something,
00:33:09
◼
►
it is going to servers.
00:33:10
◼
►
And those servers are also gonna have things like
00:33:12
◼
►
your contact information so it can know, like if you say,
00:33:15
◼
►
you know, call TIFF, it's gonna look at my contact
00:33:16
◼
►
to see who TIFF is.
00:33:18
◼
►
And it does all that logic server side,
00:33:19
◼
►
so the servers need your contact, stuff like that.
00:33:21
◼
►
So we, I think we who were in the know, we knew that,
00:33:24
◼
►
and we knew that was doing that.
00:33:26
◼
►
The main trick, this is what upgrade brought up,
00:33:28
◼
►
I think the main difference is that there's a lot of
00:33:30
◼
►
accidental invocations ever since the
00:33:33
◼
►
hey dingus support came out.
00:33:35
◼
►
Like we have a HomePod in our kitchen,
00:33:37
◼
►
and all the time we'll be having a conversation
00:33:40
◼
►
that does not include those two words at all,
00:33:43
◼
►
and HomePod will pipe up in the corner,
00:33:46
◼
►
"Hmm, sorry, what was that?"
00:33:48
◼
►
Or something like that, it'll make some noise
00:33:49
◼
►
that indicates that it was listening for a few seconds
00:33:51
◼
►
and thought we were trying to tell it something
00:33:52
◼
►
and then it failed for whatever reason.
00:33:54
◼
►
And that happens a lot.
00:33:56
◼
►
And the HomePod is the only device
00:33:58
◼
►
that I have Hade Ninga enabled for.
00:33:59
◼
►
I don't even use it on the other devices
00:34:01
◼
►
because honestly it's a lot easier
00:34:02
◼
►
to have a HomePod in your house
00:34:04
◼
►
if that's the only device you have respond to that command.
00:34:07
◼
►
It solves a number of problems.
00:34:09
◼
►
But anyway, by default that feature's on
00:34:11
◼
►
on most Apple devices these days.
00:34:14
◼
►
It'll tell you during the setup wizard
00:34:15
◼
►
and it'll give you a chance to turn it off.
00:34:17
◼
►
But kind of like the default run-through process,
00:34:20
◼
►
the encouraged flow is to turn it on.
00:34:22
◼
►
So a lot of people have the hey-ding-a support turned on.
00:34:25
◼
►
And so that, because it is both trying to be automatic
00:34:29
◼
►
with its invocation, and because it is honestly
00:34:32
◼
►
not as good as something like an Amazon Echo
00:34:35
◼
►
at knowing when you're calling it and when you're not,
00:34:38
◼
►
I think that's giving a lot of accidental input into Siri.
00:34:42
◼
►
And so the controversial part of these recordings is like,
00:34:45
◼
►
you didn't even realize it was recording.
00:34:47
◼
►
- And so who knows what you were talking about.
00:34:48
◼
►
- Right, and so you could have been doing something
00:34:50
◼
►
embarrassing or nefarious or private,
00:34:53
◼
►
and now somebody at some contractor in Silicon Valley,
00:34:58
◼
►
not even an Apple employee, but some contractor
00:35:00
◼
►
is reviewing your sex tape or drug deal or whatever.
00:35:04
◼
►
That goes against what people expect to be the case.
00:35:09
◼
►
Even though we know academically,
00:35:10
◼
►
oh yeah, recordings go to the server,
00:35:12
◼
►
you think of it, when you think of these things,
00:35:14
◼
►
you think of the typical or ideal case.
00:35:16
◼
►
You think, oh, when I push the button
00:35:18
◼
►
and tell it and ask it a question,
00:35:19
◼
►
it's gonna send what I said to a server, okay, no problem.
00:35:22
◼
►
You don't think about all this accidental invocations
00:35:24
◼
►
where it's recording just a random snippet of audio
00:35:26
◼
►
from your world and then some weirdos listening to it.
00:35:30
◼
►
- And I would guess that accidental invocations
00:35:34
◼
►
might be more likely to be reviewed because Siri,
00:35:38
◼
►
you know, like, usually she'll go, hmm,
00:35:39
◼
►
I didn't catch that or. - Right, yeah.
00:35:41
◼
►
- And that maybe those get flagged as, hey,
00:35:44
◼
►
the last 15 seconds of interaction here
00:35:47
◼
►
weren't completed successfully
00:35:49
◼
►
and maybe that sets a flag that makes it more likely
00:35:51
◼
►
to be reviewed.
00:35:52
◼
►
And I did see that, that was in the Guardian story
00:35:54
◼
►
where the anonymous contractor who was their source
00:35:57
◼
►
said that they heard drug deals and all sorts of--
00:36:01
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:36:02
◼
►
And I'm sure that isn't the common case.
00:36:04
◼
►
I'm sure most of what they hear is boring or nothing
00:36:06
◼
►
or just some random chatter, but yeah.
00:36:09
◼
►
Like the fact is that can happen
00:36:11
◼
►
and it does occasionally at least happen.
00:36:12
◼
►
And I think the main issue here is that
00:36:17
◼
►
people don't really know that that's happening.
00:36:20
◼
►
Like, you can tell them in some small print somewhere,
00:36:24
◼
►
but they don't really know.
00:36:26
◼
►
You're not really going to communicate well to people
00:36:29
◼
►
that your recordings of random audio snippets
00:36:32
◼
►
will be reviewed by humans sometimes.
00:36:35
◼
►
Like, there should be an explicit opt-out
00:36:38
◼
►
that says basically, like,
00:36:39
◼
►
"Can Apple review your recordings periodically
00:36:43
◼
►
"to improve quality," or whatever.
00:36:45
◼
►
I don't know where they word it,
00:36:46
◼
►
but that should be an explicit opt-out,
00:36:48
◼
►
and right now, there is no separate setting for that.
00:36:51
◼
►
If you don't want Apple to review your recordings
00:36:52
◼
►
periodically, you can't use Siri.
00:36:55
◼
►
And you can't both advance the position
00:36:59
◼
►
that Siri is the future and super important
00:37:01
◼
►
and we're tying so much functionality to Siri,
00:37:03
◼
►
and also say, well, if you don't like this detail of it,
00:37:07
◼
►
just don't use any of it.
00:37:08
◼
►
Like, that's not a valid argument, I think, at this point.
00:37:12
◼
►
- I do think Siri is getting better.
00:37:15
◼
►
I think it is, you know, I've always been a little more--
00:37:18
◼
►
- Like desktop Linux.
00:37:19
◼
►
- I remain optimistic about Siri's future.
00:37:24
◼
►
But I still think that we are in such ridiculous
00:37:28
◼
►
early days of this.
00:37:30
◼
►
And in some ways that frustrates me because it was like,
00:37:35
◼
►
we went, when I was a kid, we went from like Steve,
00:37:39
◼
►
the two Steves making the Apple One in a garage
00:37:44
◼
►
to having the Macintosh seven years later.
00:37:48
◼
►
Like, it was really, really rapid,
00:37:52
◼
►
and all of a sudden, by 1984, we had these computers
00:37:55
◼
►
that had this really polished interface
00:37:58
◼
►
that was, you know, like regular people could use it
00:38:01
◼
►
and understand it.
00:38:02
◼
►
Whereas Siri's been around since 2011?
00:38:09
◼
►
- And it's not progressing as fast.
00:38:12
◼
►
And none of them are that good.
00:38:13
◼
►
But one of the little things I noticed,
00:38:15
◼
►
and it's so hard, it's so much harder to evaluate
00:38:18
◼
►
than software on your phone or on your Mac
00:38:22
◼
►
where you see everything and you see all the details
00:38:24
◼
►
and you can say, oh, they changed the size of these buttons
00:38:27
◼
►
or they changed the color.
00:38:28
◼
►
Oh, they redid the disk utility window, right?
00:38:33
◼
►
It wasn't like when they redid disk utility a few years ago,
00:38:37
◼
►
it wasn't like there was any question in your mind,
00:38:40
◼
►
did they change disk utility?
00:38:41
◼
►
You could see it.
00:38:42
◼
►
With the voice assistant, you can never quite be sure,
00:38:46
◼
►
but I have noticed this summer,
00:38:48
◼
►
it has been very, very hot in Philadelphia.
00:38:50
◼
►
And one of the things I do most frequently with Siri
00:38:55
◼
►
is ask for the weather,
00:38:57
◼
►
'cause I might be getting dressed in the morning
00:38:59
◼
►
or something, I don't have my watch on yet,
00:39:01
◼
►
or I don't have my phone in my hand.
00:39:03
◼
►
And I have noticed that she hasn't once this summer
00:39:06
◼
►
given me any kind of smart alecky,
00:39:10
◼
►
Hot you know because it's 101 degrees you could like turn that down a little bit all that annoying well
00:39:15
◼
►
I'm a personality. I think they have but maybe I'm getting a bad sample size. You know like I can't prove it
00:39:25
◼
►
Specifically thinking about the hot temperatures. What was and in the winter she does burr or cold
00:39:31
◼
►
It's always it's always like about
00:39:33
◼
►
40% more words than you wanted her to give you in response to anything and it's oftentimes like a
00:39:39
◼
►
a lot more personality than is warranted
00:39:43
◼
►
by the accuracy and helpfulness of the assistant.
00:39:45
◼
►
It's like, I feel like if the assistant's gonna be
00:39:50
◼
►
fairly primitive in grand terms,
00:39:52
◼
►
and is gonna keep making mistakes a lot,
00:39:56
◼
►
the way many of these assistants do,
00:39:58
◼
►
and especially Siri, I feel like it shouldn't exhibit
00:40:01
◼
►
a lot of personality, because if it's doing something wrong
00:40:05
◼
►
and then it says, "Brr, you're just annoyed.
00:40:07
◼
►
"You wanna throw it out the window at that point."
00:40:09
◼
►
give a little personality, as little personality as possible
00:40:12
◼
►
until it's actually earned.
00:40:14
◼
►
And I feel like none of these assistants are good enough
00:40:16
◼
►
that they've earned the ability
00:40:17
◼
►
to start making smart ass comments back at you.
00:40:19
◼
►
- Right, and I feel like one of the ones for me
00:40:22
◼
►
is I have two contacts in my contacts database
00:40:26
◼
►
for women whose first name is Amy.
00:40:31
◼
►
One of them I send text messages to all the time
00:40:36
◼
►
and the other is somebody
00:40:37
◼
►
I have a professional relationship with
00:40:39
◼
►
and I don't believe I've spoken to her since like 2015.
00:40:42
◼
►
But I don't wanna delete the contact.
00:40:44
◼
►
- I feel like maybe you have to rename her.
00:40:46
◼
►
- Maybe, but then I feel like I'll forget
00:40:48
◼
►
what I renamed her.
00:40:49
◼
►
I guess I know her last name, I can just do that.
00:40:51
◼
►
But it's a little interaction that bothers me
00:40:56
◼
►
every single time when I'll say, text Amy something something
00:41:01
◼
►
and they'll say, "Which Amy?"
00:41:02
◼
►
And then I have to pick.
00:41:03
◼
►
- And it never learns.
00:41:04
◼
►
- And it never learns.
00:41:05
◼
►
And it just feels like the,
00:41:08
◼
►
like I could hire the worst personal assistant in the world.
00:41:14
◼
►
I could go to a local college and say,
00:41:17
◼
►
"Give me somebody who's on drugs and is flunking out,"
00:41:20
◼
►
and I'll hire that person as my personal assistant.
00:41:25
◼
►
They could be a really bad personal assistant.
00:41:27
◼
►
I could be fretting.
00:41:28
◼
►
I could say, "Oh, I think I gotta fire this person.
00:41:30
◼
►
"It's not working out."
00:41:31
◼
►
But if I told my assistant, text my wife,
00:41:34
◼
►
that I'm gonna be late, or text Amy that I'm gonna be late,
00:41:39
◼
►
they would know to text my wife.
00:41:40
◼
►
- Yeah, even the worst assistant, a human,
00:41:42
◼
►
would always have the judgment to know that context.
00:41:45
◼
►
I mean, right now, we have kind of a dual system family.
00:41:49
◼
►
Like, we had the Amazon Echo before we had the HomePod,
00:41:52
◼
►
and we still have both, and--
00:41:54
◼
►
- So do we. - Yeah.
00:41:55
◼
►
- It is so bad.
00:41:56
◼
►
- And we recently, like, Tiff took over the Echo as hers.
00:42:00
◼
►
We reassigned it to entirely hers,
00:42:02
◼
►
So it's all her accounts registered to her and everything.
00:42:06
◼
►
And the HomePod stays with me.
00:42:07
◼
►
And so we always joke that now we have two DIMM assistants
00:42:11
◼
►
that are just kind of DIMM in different ways.
00:42:14
◼
►
And you ask one of them to do something
00:42:16
◼
►
and it totally bombs out.
00:42:17
◼
►
You ask the other one, it'll usually get it right.
00:42:19
◼
►
But it's not like one of them is never,
00:42:22
◼
►
there isn't just one that's so good
00:42:24
◼
►
that we can keep just that one.
00:42:26
◼
►
Ultimately, what I hope is happening here,
00:42:28
◼
►
and maybe this is a bad example
00:42:29
◼
►
'cause we haven't seen the result
00:42:30
◼
►
of the big Maps rewrite yet.
00:42:33
◼
►
I know there was some concern that it might actually
00:42:35
◼
►
not be as good as we were hoping.
00:42:37
◼
►
But assuming that it does get good,
00:42:40
◼
►
I hope there is something like the great Maps rewrite
00:42:42
◼
►
going on for Siri.
00:42:43
◼
►
They hired John Gendrea, what about two years ago now,
00:42:47
◼
►
a year ago, something like that?
00:42:48
◼
►
- I think it was two years ago.
00:42:49
◼
►
- Something like that, yeah.
00:42:50
◼
►
- Maybe it was just last year.
00:42:52
◼
►
- I don't know, regardless.
00:42:53
◼
►
They hired him fairly recently,
00:42:55
◼
►
and he got promoted to SVP.
00:42:58
◼
►
And so clearly there was a major shift of Siri leadership
00:43:02
◼
►
with somebody who was very qualified
00:43:04
◼
►
to do this kind of thing in a way that I think
00:43:07
◼
►
was probably way better than the way Apple
00:43:08
◼
►
was doing it before.
00:43:09
◼
►
So hopefully there is some kind of great effort going on
00:43:13
◼
►
to really transform Siri and really bring it
00:43:16
◼
►
at least up to the level of the Amazon Echo
00:43:19
◼
►
and the Google whatever.
00:43:21
◼
►
Hopefully it gets past that level.
00:43:23
◼
►
But just to at least meet it in some of the basics.
00:43:26
◼
►
Like Siri, yes, Siri's ahead in some areas,
00:43:28
◼
►
but it still falls behind in some of the basics
00:43:31
◼
►
of like reliability, performance,
00:43:33
◼
►
some basic logic, basic learning.
00:43:36
◼
►
It's still way behind even where the Amazon Echo was
00:43:39
◼
►
like three years ago in a lot of those areas.
00:43:41
◼
►
So I hope they're, I hope and I assume
00:43:46
◼
►
that they actually are doing some kind of great Siri reset
00:43:48
◼
►
behind the scenes, although honestly I've heard nothing
00:43:50
◼
►
to that effect.
00:43:51
◼
►
- And it's, you know, it's so hard,
00:43:53
◼
►
It's obviously a very hard problem domain.
00:43:56
◼
►
But if I only understood my wife
00:44:01
◼
►
as often as Siri understands my wife,
00:44:03
◼
►
she would be concerned and tell me
00:44:06
◼
►
I need to go get my hearing checked at the doctor
00:44:08
◼
►
because this isn't working out.
00:44:11
◼
►
- And the problems go beyond hearing.
00:44:13
◼
►
- Right. - Siri hears me great.
00:44:14
◼
►
- Oh, see, she hears something,
00:44:17
◼
►
but it's like Amy, for whatever reason,
00:44:21
◼
►
Amy, you know, a fine podcaster in her own right,
00:44:25
◼
►
speaks very clearly.
00:44:26
◼
►
But it's shocking to me how often, like,
00:44:31
◼
►
when, like, her miss rate on, like,
00:44:35
◼
►
doing some of our home kit stuff,
00:44:36
◼
►
like with the lights or the shades or something like that,
00:44:38
◼
►
is really low.
00:44:40
◼
►
Or, and she'll say stuff like,
00:44:41
◼
►
open the kitchen shades.
00:44:46
◼
►
And one of the things that's great about Siri
00:44:48
◼
►
is that Siri doesn't make you do like a command line.
00:44:52
◼
►
You have to use the words the same way.
00:44:54
◼
►
You can say open the shades in the kitchen,
00:44:57
◼
►
open the kitchen shades.
00:44:59
◼
►
You don't have to program a scene with those specific names.
00:45:02
◼
►
You should generally just figure it out.
00:45:04
◼
►
But it's just, we have one where the main floor
00:45:09
◼
►
of our house is a couple of different rooms.
00:45:12
◼
►
So I do have a scene called open main floor shades,
00:45:18
◼
►
and that just opens all of them.
00:45:19
◼
►
And Amy will say open main floor shades, exactly,
00:45:22
◼
►
and Siri will say, I'm sorry,
00:45:25
◼
►
I don't have anything by that name.
00:45:27
◼
►
- So the one common issue I have with Siri is
00:45:30
◼
►
if you're saying something that is close to a common word,
00:45:34
◼
►
it's almost like my snap to grid thing,
00:45:36
◼
►
like if you're saying something
00:45:38
◼
►
that's close to a common word,
00:45:40
◼
►
but it's like a different word,
00:45:42
◼
►
sometimes Siri will hear it as that common word
00:45:44
◼
►
every single time no matter how you say it.
00:45:46
◼
►
So one example of this is, like when Siri first came out,
00:45:49
◼
►
you could say, you could tell your phone,
00:45:51
◼
►
like if your name, like in my office case,
00:45:53
◼
►
if your name was Tiffany, you could say, call me Tiff.
00:45:56
◼
►
And it would say, okay, from now on,
00:45:57
◼
►
I will call you, whatever you said.
00:45:58
◼
►
But in this case, she could not get Siri to say that.
00:46:02
◼
►
It would just say, no matter how she or I pronounced it,
00:46:05
◼
►
every single time it would say, okay, I will call you Test.
00:46:09
◼
►
Every single time.
00:46:09
◼
►
And even, and that was years ago now,
00:46:12
◼
►
but even now with the HomePod,
00:46:14
◼
►
They added the name timer support finally, thank God.
00:46:17
◼
►
I wish it would come to iOS, but cool.
00:46:19
◼
►
Start with the HomePod at least, that's good.
00:46:21
◼
►
And some mornings I'll make some bacon and eggs,
00:46:25
◼
►
and I will say, start a bacon timer for 12 minutes
00:46:27
◼
►
with the bacon in the oven.
00:46:29
◼
►
Every single time.
00:46:31
◼
►
Okay, I've started a baking timer.
00:46:33
◼
►
No matter how I say bacon,
00:46:36
◼
►
I cannot get it to not say back to me, bacon.
00:46:38
◼
►
- Right, and you would think,
00:46:40
◼
►
like if you were talking to a person,
00:46:43
◼
►
you could say start a bacon timer, B-A-C-O-N.
00:46:46
◼
►
- Yeah, right, yeah, you can clarify.
00:46:48
◼
►
- Yeah, and there's no way to clarify like that,
00:46:50
◼
►
and it's just like the,
00:46:51
◼
►
you just sort of start to break down, you know, I don't know.
00:46:57
◼
►
- Maybe I think I'm saying it like with an apostrophe
00:46:59
◼
►
instead of the G at the end. - Yeah, bacon.
00:47:01
◼
►
- I'm just bacon out here.
00:47:01
◼
►
- You're just dropping your Gs.
00:47:03
◼
►
- Yeah, right, yeah, start a bacon timer, bacon.
00:47:06
◼
►
- I also think that the name timer thing was interesting
00:47:11
◼
►
that the HomePod, well, and HomePod was single timer only.
00:47:15
◼
►
You couldn't name 'em, and it was single timer.
00:47:17
◼
►
- Yes, okay.
00:47:18
◼
►
- And the reaction from some people at Apple PR was,
00:47:24
◼
►
okay, it's a good feature, but is this really that big a deal
00:47:28
◼
►
and I-- - Yes, it is.
00:47:30
◼
►
- Well, and the thing is, is I think it was an instance
00:47:34
◼
►
where the cultural insularity of Apple,
00:47:38
◼
►
where a lot of Apple employees really only use Apple stuff.
00:47:42
◼
►
So if they weren't used to having an Echo,
00:47:49
◼
►
where you can do that and do it in the kitchen,
00:47:51
◼
►
it's like you're totally missing the point.
00:47:53
◼
►
It's like the main reason to buy an Echo, really,
00:47:56
◼
►
and put it in your kitchen,
00:47:57
◼
►
is to have these name timers that you don't have to touch
00:47:59
◼
►
and that you can query how much time is left on the pizza
00:48:04
◼
►
and get a very accurate answer.
00:48:06
◼
►
- And I think, too, I mean, this was a larger problem
00:48:08
◼
►
with the HomePod in general.
00:48:09
◼
►
The HomePod was such a poor market fit
00:48:14
◼
►
because maybe the way Apple saw it
00:48:16
◼
►
was the way they priced it and the way they marketed it,
00:48:18
◼
►
which is this is something you put in a living room.
00:48:20
◼
►
And in that kind of context,
00:48:22
◼
►
maybe you don't need multiple name timers very often,
00:48:24
◼
►
but the market has a very different opinion.
00:48:26
◼
►
The market says one of the best places
00:48:28
◼
►
for a voice cylinder is in the kitchen.
00:48:31
◼
►
And whether or not Apple want to position theirs as such,
00:48:34
◼
►
and that's part of the reason
00:48:35
◼
►
why everyone says it's too expensive,
00:48:37
◼
►
I was like, yeah, it's a pretty good $300 speaker,
00:48:39
◼
►
but it's not competitive in the market of voice cylinders,
00:48:44
◼
►
because voice cylinders cost 100 bucks.
00:48:47
◼
►
- And most people naturally don't wanna spend
00:48:49
◼
►
home entertainment system dollars
00:48:50
◼
►
for something that's just a gadget in the kitchen.
00:48:53
◼
►
- Right, and especially that integrates so poorly
00:48:55
◼
►
into any other type of a home theater system.
00:48:58
◼
►
You really kinda can't use a HomePod easily
00:49:01
◼
►
with pretty much anything else,
00:49:02
◼
►
so it is like a standalone thing.
00:49:04
◼
►
It actually is a really good kitchen speaker.
00:49:07
◼
►
It's very expensive for that purpose,
00:49:09
◼
►
but if you can swing it, it's a pretty good one.
00:49:12
◼
►
But I gotta say, the Echo's still better
00:49:14
◼
►
because the Echo is more reliable.
00:49:17
◼
►
Its name timer support is better
00:49:18
◼
►
and more reliable and faster.
00:49:21
◼
►
And they have the various models that have the screens,
00:49:23
◼
►
which honestly, I tried the very first Echo Show
00:49:25
◼
►
with the screen. - Yeah, I remember you saying--
00:49:26
◼
►
- I returned it within like a day.
00:49:28
◼
►
I'm like, nope, it was terrible.
00:49:29
◼
►
But I hear the new ones are better.
00:49:31
◼
►
But whether or not Apple wants the market to believe
00:49:35
◼
►
where it wants to position its products,
00:49:38
◼
►
it doesn't really matter what Apple
00:49:40
◼
►
wants the market to believe.
00:49:41
◼
►
The market's gonna believe what it's gonna believe.
00:49:42
◼
►
And so if the market says a voice assistant cylinder
00:49:45
◼
►
speaker thing should be about 100 bucks
00:49:48
◼
►
and should have multiple name timers
00:49:49
◼
►
'cause we're gonna put it in our kitchens,
00:49:51
◼
►
Apple can only do so much to change that perception
00:49:54
◼
►
because they wanna make something more expensive
00:49:55
◼
►
that's more home theater focused.
00:49:56
◼
►
Like the reality is that's what the market wants
00:49:58
◼
►
and so far that has proven to be
00:50:00
◼
►
what people still want the HomePod to be.
00:50:03
◼
►
Apple hasn't moved the market towards them.
00:50:05
◼
►
The market just kind of left them behind.
00:50:07
◼
►
- It makes me wonder what they're working on,
00:50:08
◼
►
what their plans are for HomePod.
00:50:10
◼
►
I could see them going in either direction.
00:50:13
◼
►
I could see them expanding it to be,
00:50:16
◼
►
which is what they did with the iPod back in the day,
00:50:18
◼
►
where they'd have multiple iPods of different sizes
00:50:21
◼
►
and hitting lower price points.
00:50:24
◼
►
I could see them making a smaller one that is less expensive
00:50:29
◼
►
and maybe still sounds really good for its size,
00:50:31
◼
►
or I could see them completely dropping it
00:50:33
◼
►
and getting out of the business of making it.
00:50:36
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, 'cause to some degree,
00:50:37
◼
►
I think they might argue that the kitchen home pod
00:50:41
◼
►
is called the iPad.
00:50:43
◼
►
- And I don't think that's necessarily a good replacement,
00:50:46
◼
►
but that is, I think, what a lot of their marketing
00:50:49
◼
►
would try to have you believe.
00:50:51
◼
►
And for some people, it is a good replacement.
00:50:53
◼
►
If you want a device that responds to voice commands
00:50:56
◼
►
and can play music and stuff
00:50:57
◼
►
and has a screen to show you stuff,
00:50:58
◼
►
- Yeah, actually, an iPod's pretty good for that.
00:51:00
◼
►
And I do use my iPad in the kitchen very frequently.
00:51:02
◼
►
It's a great kitchen device.
00:51:04
◼
►
But I think what's most likely to happen with the HomePod
00:51:08
◼
►
is I think they're just gonna kinda slowly peter out
00:51:12
◼
►
and eventually bow out of the market,
00:51:13
◼
►
similar to how they did with Wi-Fi routers.
00:51:15
◼
►
For similar reasons.
00:51:16
◼
►
- That's exactly, I was trying to think about
00:51:17
◼
►
what I was thinking of, and I was thinking about
00:51:19
◼
►
the way that they got out of the Wi-Fi routers.
00:51:21
◼
►
Even though they, in some ways, I think,
00:51:26
◼
►
deserve credit for starting it.
00:51:28
◼
►
that Airport was one of the first
00:51:30
◼
►
highly publicized Wi-Fi systems.
00:51:32
◼
►
I mean, it was, they did the hula hoop.
00:51:34
◼
►
It was all radical.
00:51:37
◼
►
They had Phil Schiller jumping off a 20-foot platform
00:51:40
◼
►
to show that the accelerometer worked on the thing,
00:51:46
◼
►
and it was still broadcasting Wi-Fi.
00:51:50
◼
►
- Yeah, but ultimately, I don't think,
00:51:53
◼
►
they're never gonna compete well against Amazon,
00:51:55
◼
►
because Amazon is so good at making really cheap hardware
00:51:58
◼
►
that if you don't care so much about the materials quality
00:52:02
◼
►
and design and UI quality, I mean Amazon's UIs are atrocious
00:52:06
◼
►
for their products that do have screens, they're horrendous.
00:52:09
◼
►
But if you don't care about all that stuff
00:52:10
◼
►
and you just want a voice assistant cylinder
00:52:12
◼
►
that can play music and have multiple timers
00:52:14
◼
►
in your kitchen, Amazon is gonna kill them
00:52:16
◼
►
over and over and over again at that.
00:52:17
◼
►
Apple is just not good at making cheap, frequently updated
00:52:22
◼
►
like commodity hardware that interacts
00:52:24
◼
►
that they frequently updated web service
00:52:26
◼
►
that integrates with a bunch of third party things.
00:52:28
◼
►
None of that's in Apple's DNA.
00:52:29
◼
►
And so I think the HomePod is,
00:52:33
◼
►
rather than become competitive by having a wider range
00:52:36
◼
►
that spans multiple price points
00:52:37
◼
►
and making Siri really good on it,
00:52:38
◼
►
I think the more likely outcome
00:52:40
◼
►
is they just slowly bow out.
00:52:42
◼
►
They're already doing a whole lot of AirPlay 2 hardware
00:52:44
◼
►
with other hardware partners.
00:52:45
◼
►
I think that's the first step
00:52:47
◼
►
in getting themselves out of this business.
00:52:48
◼
►
And then give it a couple more years
00:52:51
◼
►
where AirPlay 2 is in more products
00:52:52
◼
►
that themselves have voice assistants built in.
00:52:55
◼
►
Like Sonos has a couple.
00:52:56
◼
►
I think Apple's out of this business in a couple years.
00:53:00
◼
►
- Yeah, and something like Sonos is, you know,
00:53:03
◼
►
it's so much more flexible because they've got
00:53:06
◼
►
like a whole range of products, you know.
00:53:09
◼
►
It's, I like HomePod as a product a lot, but it is not,
00:53:14
◼
►
like I wouldn't want it to be my TV sound system.
00:53:19
◼
►
- Well, and honestly, they sound great.
00:53:20
◼
►
Like if you get a stereo pair of them,
00:53:22
◼
►
They sound awesome, but they have no inputs.
00:53:24
◼
►
And you can make them work with an Apple TV,
00:53:28
◼
►
but it's a little clumsy to do that,
00:53:31
◼
►
and it's nearly impossible to make them work well
00:53:33
◼
►
with anything else.
00:53:34
◼
►
And so it's just not,
00:53:36
◼
►
Apple did a really good job engineering the microphones,
00:53:39
◼
►
they did a really good job engineering the sound,
00:53:41
◼
►
it looks kinda cool, it's a good size.
00:53:44
◼
►
It is a really nice product for a narrow set of use cases.
00:53:49
◼
►
But unfortunately that set of use cases
00:53:51
◼
►
is too narrow for the market.
00:53:53
◼
►
And it's the kind of thing that I would love
00:53:55
◼
►
for Apple to keep going on that and make it better.
00:53:59
◼
►
Make Siri support behind it better,
00:54:01
◼
►
make the software better, make the hardware,
00:54:03
◼
►
you know, move it forward, make a bigger range,
00:54:04
◼
►
make smaller ones, make bigger ones.
00:54:06
◼
►
I would love that, I just don't think they're gonna do it.
00:54:08
◼
►
If they did it, I think they could be better than everyone.
00:54:11
◼
►
If they really put their heart behind it,
00:54:13
◼
►
and if they really, you know, make Siri really good
00:54:16
◼
►
as the general, you know, initiative
00:54:17
◼
►
that I hope is happening there,
00:54:19
◼
►
and really put their back into HomePod.
00:54:20
◼
►
I think they could really make it amazing.
00:54:22
◼
►
And I would love that because I would like that way better
00:54:24
◼
►
than all the other alternatives that are kind of creepy
00:54:26
◼
►
and made with crappy hardware.
00:54:27
◼
►
But I just don't see it happening, unfortunately.
00:54:30
◼
►
- It's also a little frustrating knowing that it comes
00:54:32
◼
►
from the same company that made AirPods,
00:54:34
◼
►
which are amazing and in a lot of ways are sibling product.
00:54:39
◼
►
They're wireless, you talk to Siri,
00:54:43
◼
►
you're listening to music.
00:54:47
◼
►
Everybody I know, I know you have issues
00:54:49
◼
►
with the fitting in your ears,
00:54:51
◼
►
but other than like, if you think that they're comfortable,
00:54:54
◼
►
most people absolutely love AirPods.
00:54:56
◼
►
It would be interesting to see,
00:54:58
◼
►
somehow rub some of that AirPod magic on HomePod.
00:55:04
◼
►
- Yeah, and I mean, I think ultimately,
00:55:07
◼
►
it just again comes down to like,
00:55:09
◼
►
how much are they willing to play
00:55:11
◼
►
in that commodity hardware business?
00:55:13
◼
►
Like, how cheap are they willing to make this thing?
00:55:14
◼
►
How well are they able to compete
00:55:17
◼
►
to get, I'm not saying they have to beat or match
00:55:19
◼
►
the Echo's price, but they have to get closer to it.
00:55:22
◼
►
Like, it has to cost like 30 or 50% more,
00:55:26
◼
►
not like 300% more, whatever it is.
00:55:28
◼
►
- Well, and sort of in a way that AirPods are,
00:55:30
◼
►
they're expensive for EarPods.
00:55:32
◼
►
You know, are they still 160 bucks, 159?
00:55:34
◼
►
- I think the base is 170 now or something,
00:55:36
◼
►
and the wireless charging is 200.
00:55:39
◼
►
But when you compare them to the highest rated
00:55:43
◼
►
wireless buds from other companies,
00:55:46
◼
►
Like I just read a review last week of somebody
00:55:49
◼
►
who's reviewing the new Sony ones,
00:55:51
◼
►
which seem like a really good product,
00:55:53
◼
►
but they're more expensive.
00:55:55
◼
►
- Yeah, the AirPods are actually pretty price competitive
00:55:57
◼
►
for what they are, for the other competitive,
00:56:00
◼
►
both small wireless buds and just like the market
00:56:03
◼
►
of generally like decent Bluetooth,
00:56:06
◼
►
decent portable Bluetooth headphones.
00:56:08
◼
►
They're all around 200 bucks at least.
00:56:10
◼
►
So it's actually, those are actually pretty well priced
00:56:13
◼
►
for what they are.
00:56:14
◼
►
So we know Apple can do it, but the HomePod,
00:56:17
◼
►
I think they wanted to kill Sonos with it.
00:56:22
◼
►
Unfortunately, they didn't.
00:56:23
◼
►
And they didn't come anywhere near
00:56:25
◼
►
competing with the Echo family.
00:56:28
◼
►
- All right, let's take a break, thank our next sponsor.
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- I think India too, the Mumbai one I think just opened.
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- I don't know, my talking points
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might be out of date on that, but that's another,
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I don't even know what some of this stuff is,
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but you can get a dedicated CPU, CI/CD environments,
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I don't even know what that is.
00:57:35
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- Casey knows what that is.
00:57:36
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It's some kind of like testing thing.
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Of course, it's all a 40-egrobit network,
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Might be 11.
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Says here, additional data center opening in Mumbai, India
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Maybe they're already there. - Yeah, I think it either
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I'm a customer, everything I do is gonna be hosted there
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00:58:56
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Did you see the essay? I just linked to it the other day
00:58:58
◼
►
Craig mod. Yeah, but performance the fast software fast offers great software. Yeah. Yeah, and it's really good. He said he's a great writer
00:59:06
◼
►
I've known Craig for years
00:59:08
◼
►
very very thoughtful guy
00:59:10
◼
►
And it's funny 'cause he's writing about fast software,
00:59:14
◼
►
but it struck a chord with me
00:59:16
◼
►
because it's something I've thought about.
00:59:17
◼
►
I mean, I've spent hundreds of hours here on the show
00:59:19
◼
►
talking about software quality.
00:59:21
◼
►
But the very specific nature of software
00:59:26
◼
►
that feels fast and responsive
00:59:29
◼
►
and that the way that that makes him feel
00:59:31
◼
►
that that software is well built,
00:59:33
◼
►
and when you're using an app,
00:59:36
◼
►
Like one of his examples was the web export dialogue
00:59:41
◼
►
in Photoshop.
00:59:42
◼
►
And you know, it's a dialogue box a lot of people
00:59:46
◼
►
have to use a lot of time.
00:59:47
◼
►
And it's, I literally think that it's like a dialogue box
00:59:52
◼
►
that was written using Chromium or something like that.
00:59:55
◼
►
Like they're actually firing up like a web browser
00:59:57
◼
►
inside the window.
00:59:58
◼
►
It takes, you hit the command, it takes a couple seconds
01:00:01
◼
►
before the dialogue even appears.
01:00:03
◼
►
Makes you feel, it makes you not trust the software.
01:00:05
◼
►
- And it makes it feel just crappy.
01:00:09
◼
►
It feels almost uncared for.
01:00:11
◼
►
'Cause a lot of times, those of us who are lucky enough
01:00:16
◼
►
to be on fast hardware, if you buy a nice Mac,
01:00:20
◼
►
a nice MacBook Pro or iMac or iMac Pro,
01:00:23
◼
►
you got a lot of performance under that hood.
01:00:25
◼
►
And if then some software that you run
01:00:27
◼
►
performs horribly doing some common task
01:00:29
◼
►
like showing its new file dialogue,
01:00:31
◼
►
you kinda know this is not a hardware problem,
01:00:35
◼
►
which makes it even more frustrating.
01:00:36
◼
►
I have all these cores, I have all this memory,
01:00:39
◼
►
I have this fast SSD, all at your disposal software.
01:00:43
◼
►
What are you wasting it on?
01:00:44
◼
►
Like, what are you doing?
01:00:46
◼
►
- Well, and Photoshop is an interesting example
01:00:48
◼
►
because Photoshop used to be amazingly fast.
01:00:52
◼
►
And this was, we were talking like the early years,
01:00:55
◼
►
like early to mid-90s.
01:01:00
◼
►
And the hardware at the time,
01:01:03
◼
►
- Well, literally, I don't think it's an exaggeration
01:01:05
◼
►
to say that it was hundreds of times slower
01:01:07
◼
►
than a modern high-end desktop.
01:01:10
◼
►
- And in certain ways, even, like in things like I/O,
01:01:13
◼
►
even more, like, you know, 'cause first we got cheap RAM,
01:01:17
◼
►
then we got SSDs. - Right.
01:01:18
◼
►
- And like, 'cause you know, in the '90s,
01:01:20
◼
►
like I've said before, like the sound of computing
01:01:23
◼
►
in the '90s was the sound of your hard drive grinding.
01:01:25
◼
►
- Right. (laughs)
01:01:26
◼
►
- Because, you know, 'cause hard drives were slow
01:01:28
◼
►
to begin with, and also RAM was incredibly expensive
01:01:31
◼
►
in the 90s, and so it was, you know,
01:01:33
◼
►
nobody had enough RAM to do what the operating systems
01:01:35
◼
►
and everything wanted to do, so just constant swapping,
01:01:37
◼
►
just constant hard drive grinding.
01:01:39
◼
►
- I forget the exact details of it,
01:01:40
◼
►
but I remember in those early years,
01:01:42
◼
►
when everything was so limited,
01:01:44
◼
►
Photoshop even had its own custom swap disk code for--
01:01:48
◼
►
- Yeah, I think it had to.
01:01:49
◼
►
- Yeah, 'cause they couldn't trust,
01:01:51
◼
►
A, I think they wanted to write their own code
01:01:53
◼
►
'cause it was so mission critical,
01:01:54
◼
►
but it just wasn't something that the OS
01:01:58
◼
►
really provided at the time.
01:01:59
◼
►
- Yeah, or at least not all the OSs that ran on
01:02:01
◼
►
would have provided it.
01:02:02
◼
►
- And you used to have to wait for so much stuff
01:02:05
◼
►
in Photoshop, not because, and again, the app felt fast,
01:02:09
◼
►
and if there was something you needed to do
01:02:10
◼
►
in an export dialogue, and you did it all the time
01:02:13
◼
►
because you're using Photoshop,
01:02:14
◼
►
so you have the keyboard shortcut memorized,
01:02:17
◼
►
you'd hit that keyboard shortcut,
01:02:18
◼
►
and the dialogue was there instantly, no waiting.
01:02:21
◼
►
The things you'd have to wait for
01:02:22
◼
►
was the computationally difficult stuff,
01:02:27
◼
►
like if you're applying a Gaussian blur
01:02:29
◼
►
to a, at the time, what we thought of as large JPEGs.
01:02:33
◼
►
- Yeah, right.
01:02:34
◼
►
640 by 480. (laughs)
01:02:36
◼
►
- But even that, even though you had to wait,
01:02:40
◼
►
you might wait like 30, 40 seconds
01:02:42
◼
►
to apply a filter to a photograph.
01:02:45
◼
►
But everything about it was responsive.
01:02:47
◼
►
The dialog box appeared as soon as you hit the command.
01:02:51
◼
►
The actual filter started being applied
01:02:54
◼
►
the second you hit the return key
01:02:56
◼
►
or clicked the button to do it on screen,
01:03:00
◼
►
the progress dialog would appear instantly,
01:03:04
◼
►
would update at a regular basis,
01:03:05
◼
►
and then as soon as it got to the end
01:03:07
◼
►
of the progress bar to the pixel,
01:03:09
◼
►
it would disappear and you would see your result.
01:03:12
◼
►
Like that, it was a slow process
01:03:16
◼
►
'cause the computers were so slow,
01:03:18
◼
►
but the responsiveness to your user actions was impeccable.
01:03:24
◼
►
and it's just an interesting contrast
01:03:27
◼
►
that we have these faster computers
01:03:28
◼
►
and now slower interfaces.
01:03:31
◼
►
- Well, I think you could say a lot of the same things
01:03:33
◼
►
apply to the original iPhone.
01:03:35
◼
►
That the original iPhone was very slow hardware, really,
01:03:38
◼
►
like compared to anything.
01:03:41
◼
►
But at the time, it was like, this is the best we can do,
01:03:42
◼
►
so let's deal with it.
01:03:43
◼
►
And so they actually really engineered the software
01:03:46
◼
►
with tons of effort to maximize responsiveness
01:03:51
◼
►
while they knew they'd be waiting for the hardware.
01:03:53
◼
►
So things like the Safari drawing the little grid
01:03:56
◼
►
before things would render and stuff like that.
01:03:58
◼
►
- The checkerboard.
01:03:58
◼
►
- Yeah, the checkerboard, yeah.
01:03:59
◼
►
- Or if you scrolled too fast, you'd get ahead.
01:04:01
◼
►
It would only, 'cause it was so RAM constrained,
01:04:03
◼
►
they couldn't do the whole front page of the New York Times.
01:04:07
◼
►
So they'd render the top of it, and then as you scrolled,
01:04:10
◼
►
they would render more of it on the fly,
01:04:12
◼
►
but if you scrolled too fast,
01:04:13
◼
►
they would just show you that checkerboard
01:04:14
◼
►
so that it was always responsive to your touch.
01:04:16
◼
►
- And there's all the stuff deep in the system
01:04:18
◼
►
about things like being responsive to touches
01:04:20
◼
►
and scrolling being very smooth and things like that.
01:04:22
◼
►
And they did all this because they knew
01:04:25
◼
►
the hardware was very constrained,
01:04:27
◼
►
so they took a lot of effort and were very conscientious
01:04:30
◼
►
about making sure everything stayed fast
01:04:32
◼
►
as much as possible while they knew
01:04:34
◼
►
they'd be waiting on the hardware
01:04:35
◼
►
to do some more complicated things.
01:04:36
◼
►
And that's how early computers were too.
01:04:38
◼
►
Early computers in the '90s and '80s
01:04:40
◼
►
and even the early 2000s,
01:04:42
◼
►
they too were very constrained by their hardware.
01:04:46
◼
►
And so programmers at the time,
01:04:49
◼
►
both OS and application programmers,
01:04:51
◼
►
had to be more conscientious about what they did.
01:04:54
◼
►
And I think what has happened in probably the last
01:04:56
◼
►
10 years or so is that hardware has gotten so good
01:05:01
◼
►
and so fast and we have so much CPU power, so much RAM,
01:05:04
◼
►
SSDs came around to eliminate a lot of IO bottlenecks,
01:05:07
◼
►
and now programmers at almost every level
01:05:10
◼
►
don't really have to think about performance
01:05:13
◼
►
for most of the things they write anymore.
01:05:15
◼
►
So even though the hardware is faster than ever,
01:05:18
◼
►
also programmers have stopped caring about performance
01:05:21
◼
►
unless it's really a big problem.
01:05:23
◼
►
And as you get into things like big companies,
01:05:26
◼
►
like Adobe, and working on big projects like Photoshop,
01:05:30
◼
►
the argument for like, we need to make the new dialogue fast
01:05:34
◼
►
has to go through so many people.
01:05:35
◼
►
And they have so many conflicting priorities of things
01:05:39
◼
►
like, well, if we write this code once
01:05:40
◼
►
using web technologies, it can run on all of our platforms
01:05:43
◼
►
with the same code, look the same,
01:05:44
◼
►
fit our branding guidelines, and all this other crap.
01:05:47
◼
►
And performance is not on top of anybody's mind anymore
01:05:51
◼
►
because everything is so fast,
01:05:54
◼
►
probably half the team working on stuff like that
01:05:57
◼
►
has never had to write performance code.
01:05:59
◼
►
- And it's sort of just sort of a loss
01:06:01
◼
►
of the sense of craftsmanship in the work.
01:06:05
◼
►
Another example, right up your alley
01:06:07
◼
►
and from your personal experience is Tumblr
01:06:12
◼
►
was always very fast.
01:06:14
◼
►
I haven't used it in a while.
01:06:15
◼
►
I don't know if that's actually still true.
01:06:17
◼
►
But a lot of CMSs, you save an article
01:06:22
◼
►
and then it sits there and spins for seconds at a time,
01:06:29
◼
►
enough that it's like, you could see how somebody thought
01:06:34
◼
►
this is fine, who needs to be back in control of your CMS
01:06:39
◼
►
instantaneously upon hitting the post button.
01:06:42
◼
►
But it's actually not true.
01:06:46
◼
►
Like my CMS is actually a little slow in that regard
01:06:49
◼
►
where it takes a couple seconds for when I post an article
01:06:52
◼
►
to get back in control of everything.
01:06:56
◼
►
And when you notice the typo and you hit Update
01:06:59
◼
►
and you have to wait like seven seconds
01:07:01
◼
►
before you can fix it, it's just sitting there
01:07:04
◼
►
right in front of you but it's spinning,
01:07:06
◼
►
it'll drive you nuts.
01:07:07
◼
►
Whereas Tumblr was always, you hit Publish
01:07:09
◼
►
and it was like, did something happen?
01:07:11
◼
►
Yeah, oh yeah, it's already done.
01:07:12
◼
►
There it is.
01:07:13
◼
►
There's my new picture of my kid.
01:07:16
◼
►
- Well, and part of that is, you know,
01:07:18
◼
►
like your CMS, first of all, was made
01:07:20
◼
►
back when RAM was expensive,
01:07:22
◼
►
and is also, I believe, rebuilding static files
01:07:25
◼
►
every time you publish.
01:07:26
◼
►
- Yeah, but that shouldn't take long.
01:07:28
◼
►
- No, it shouldn't, but you know,
01:07:29
◼
►
if it's like rebuilding a bunch of archive pages
01:07:31
◼
►
or something, then you might have, okay, so maybe not.
01:07:33
◼
►
But anyway. - It's just bad software.
01:07:34
◼
►
- Yeah, and your software doesn't have to be
01:07:37
◼
►
that performing in that way
01:07:38
◼
►
because it has one user at a time.
01:07:40
◼
►
Like with Tumblr, everything had to be really fast
01:07:44
◼
►
because if it wasn't, the servers would explode
01:07:48
◼
►
because it had so many users and so much traffic
01:07:51
◼
►
at any given time.
01:07:52
◼
►
Things that we couldn't do quickly, we just couldn't do.
01:07:56
◼
►
So everything was designed,
01:07:59
◼
►
and to a large degree, Overcast servers,
01:08:00
◼
►
I've made the same way because I take a lot
01:08:02
◼
►
of the same design approaches to them,
01:08:04
◼
►
of basically like if something's going to be
01:08:06
◼
►
a very heavy operation that I can't do quickly,
01:08:09
◼
►
don't do it. I thought, I know I've talked about this before, but what are podcasts for other than
01:08:17
◼
►
retelling old stories? But I thought one of the interesting changes Apple made philosophically,
01:08:21
◼
►
number one, I'll go even further back out. Like, I've been thinking a lot lately, as the iPhone
01:08:28
◼
►
and iOS settle in as long standing platforms, like they're not new. I mean, you know, we had the
01:08:34
◼
►
10th year anniversary last year. I mean, this is a well-established software platform. But we went
01:08:40
◼
►
from the first version of Mac OS X to the iPhone in like six years. I mean, I know that Apple spent
01:08:48
◼
►
like five years working on Mac OS X before it actually shipped as a 10.0. But that era from
01:08:56
◼
►
like 2001 to you know and the iPod was new to okay here's the iPhone feels like
01:09:04
◼
►
a long stretch of time but it wasn't it was very that's actually just a handful
01:09:09
◼
►
of years and a lot of the people were the same and I thought one of the
01:09:13
◼
►
interesting things that Apple obviously changed its mind about between Mac OS
01:09:17
◼
►
and the original iPhone was what to make seem impressive.
01:09:22
◼
►
With Mac OS X, they valued rendering quality
01:09:33
◼
►
above all else.
01:09:36
◼
►
So like when you, and again, this seems like a goofy thing
01:09:39
◼
►
to get excited about, but back then,
01:09:42
◼
►
when you'd resize a window and the contents
01:09:44
◼
►
would update live, as opposed to just drawing an outline
01:09:47
◼
►
and then refreshing once when you let go of the window,
01:09:50
◼
►
that seemed impressive.
01:09:52
◼
►
And they were doing all of this fancy anti-aliasing
01:09:55
◼
►
and all these drop shadows and they had translucency.
01:10:00
◼
►
They just went way overboard with the quote unquote
01:10:04
◼
►
lickability of the interface.
01:10:06
◼
►
But it was slow.
01:10:08
◼
►
It was slow to resize windows.
01:10:10
◼
►
When you would drag a window around real fast,
01:10:13
◼
►
you could see it shearing on screen.
01:10:15
◼
►
And then six years later with the iPhone,
01:10:19
◼
►
they went the other way.
01:10:20
◼
►
And they were like, if we can't keep up,
01:10:22
◼
►
we'll just draw this checkerboard
01:10:24
◼
►
and make sure that the scrolling speed keeps up.
01:10:27
◼
►
And I remember talking to somebody at Apple about this once.
01:10:30
◼
►
And he told me an interesting story that
01:10:35
◼
►
they knew that Mac OS X was slow.
01:10:39
◼
►
They weren't fooling themselves that the,
01:10:42
◼
►
what was the word everybody used?
01:10:43
◼
►
the snappiness wasn't there.
01:10:46
◼
►
And they set up a lab where they,
01:10:49
◼
►
what was the version of Windows
01:10:51
◼
►
that would have been current in like 2001?
01:10:54
◼
►
- Yeah, I think it was XP.
01:10:56
◼
►
Yeah, yeah, it was XP.
01:10:57
◼
►
So they had a lab and they used high-speed cameras
01:11:01
◼
►
and timed things like you click on the file menu
01:11:06
◼
►
and how many milliseconds does it take
01:11:08
◼
►
for the dropdown menu to finish rendering.
01:11:12
◼
►
and if you drag your mouse down the menu
01:11:15
◼
►
and it starts highlighting things,
01:11:17
◼
►
how quickly after the mouse gets there
01:11:19
◼
►
does the highlight come?
01:11:20
◼
►
And they tested Mac OS X, they had a whole list,
01:11:24
◼
►
he said, of things that we timed
01:11:26
◼
►
that were mostly just rendering things.
01:11:29
◼
►
And their gold standard was XP.
01:11:32
◼
►
They were like, look at how much faster all of this is.
01:11:34
◼
►
And sure, it wasn't as fancy looking,
01:11:37
◼
►
but they wanted, this is our goal,
01:11:39
◼
►
to get it as fast as this.
01:11:41
◼
►
And it was the sort of thing that they were never
01:11:44
◼
►
gonna talk about publicly because they're not gonna admit
01:11:48
◼
►
that their stuff was slow and Windows was fast.
01:11:52
◼
►
But then the funny thing is when Windows 7 shipped,
01:11:55
◼
►
they installed it and they set up another machine
01:11:57
◼
►
and they realized everything had gotten slow.
01:11:59
◼
►
And they didn't know what to do and he said
01:12:03
◼
►
it was a real fight within the company
01:12:05
◼
►
as to whether they should still be benchmarking themselves
01:12:08
◼
►
against XP because that was the fast one
01:12:11
◼
►
And there were others who were like,
01:12:12
◼
►
"No, see, they're slow too, now we're fine."
01:12:14
◼
►
This is all good. - Oh, interesting.
01:12:16
◼
►
That's kinda sad that that was even a debate.
01:12:18
◼
►
- Yeah, well, the people who wanted to keep testing on XP
01:12:21
◼
►
won the debate.
01:12:22
◼
►
- I hope so, yeah, 'cause it's like,
01:12:23
◼
►
"Oh, everyone else sucks, we can suck too."
01:12:25
◼
►
That's a terrible argument.
01:12:27
◼
►
- Right. (laughing)
01:12:28
◼
►
But I think that's sort of the nut.
01:12:33
◼
►
Like, why did Craig Maud write this essay?
01:12:35
◼
►
Because there's so many people out there doing work
01:12:38
◼
►
who don't have that philosophy.
01:12:39
◼
►
I'm like, ah, if it takes four seconds,
01:12:41
◼
►
it takes four seconds.
01:12:42
◼
►
- Well, and I feel like it's even,
01:12:44
◼
►
we're talking about a lot of times smaller times than that.
01:12:47
◼
►
It's like one of the tricky things
01:12:50
◼
►
about trying to match responsiveness of old hardware
01:12:55
◼
►
is it used to be that when you pressed a key
01:12:58
◼
►
on your keyboard, it would generate a hardware interrupt
01:13:01
◼
►
and it would basically appear immediately on the screen
01:13:05
◼
►
within some tiny amount of time because of,
01:13:07
◼
►
but that depended on how the keyboard technology worked,
01:13:10
◼
►
how the screen technology worked,
01:13:12
◼
►
like the cathode gun, like how all that stuff worked
01:13:15
◼
►
to get that level of responsiveness.
01:13:16
◼
►
Hardware today is way more complicated than that,
01:13:20
◼
►
and there's all these different levels and layers,
01:13:21
◼
►
and a lot of things that introduce small amounts of latency,
01:13:23
◼
►
like having keyboards be wireless, stuff like that.
01:13:26
◼
►
There's all these little levels of latency
01:13:29
◼
►
that are the result of technological advancement,
01:13:31
◼
►
like the hardware got better in certain ways,
01:13:33
◼
►
it got more capable, more complicated,
01:13:35
◼
►
the OSes got more advanced,
01:13:37
◼
►
and there's different layers of everything now.
01:13:39
◼
►
So a lot of that's just down to that,
01:13:40
◼
►
but then I feel like the big challenge
01:13:43
◼
►
that we have with software is not that things
01:13:46
◼
►
take four seconds when they should take one,
01:13:49
◼
►
but that things that should take 20 milliseconds
01:13:52
◼
►
take 200 milliseconds.
01:13:54
◼
►
So we're talking about much smaller time intervals here,
01:13:58
◼
►
but that adds up, or simple things,
01:14:00
◼
►
like how I believe you said before,
01:14:02
◼
►
how when you invoke Spotlight with command space on a Mac,
01:14:07
◼
►
or when you open a new window on a Mac
01:14:09
◼
►
or do something like that,
01:14:10
◼
►
and then you start typing the commands
01:14:12
◼
►
of what you want to appear in a text field
01:14:14
◼
►
or a name or something,
01:14:16
◼
►
it'll queue up those commands
01:14:17
◼
►
and it will put them in as soon as it can.
01:14:20
◼
►
On iOS, if you hit Command + Space
01:14:22
◼
►
with a keyboard on an iPad Pro,
01:14:23
◼
►
it doesn't start accepting input
01:14:25
◼
►
until it has finished the animation
01:14:26
◼
►
and is showing you the text box.
01:14:28
◼
►
And there's little things like that,
01:14:29
◼
►
where the responsiveness-- - That has gotten fixed.
01:14:31
◼
►
- Oh, it has, in 13?
01:14:33
◼
►
Don't quote me on this,
01:14:35
◼
►
but I actually think it is shipped
01:14:37
◼
►
in the latest version of iOS 12.
01:14:39
◼
►
A little birdie-- - Oh, interesting.
01:14:40
◼
►
- A little birdie who saw my rant about that was like,
01:14:43
◼
►
told me that this drives some of us nuts too.
01:14:47
◼
►
We're gonna try to sneak a, don't say anything,
01:14:52
◼
►
but don't quote me, but I think they fixed it.
01:14:55
◼
►
And I think they're definitely supposedly fixed it
01:14:57
◼
►
for iOS 13, but I don't understand how that ever shipped.
01:15:01
◼
►
How does that not, 'cause you would think
01:15:03
◼
►
if you are on the Spotlight team,
01:15:06
◼
►
like you're one of the people who's,
01:15:08
◼
►
one of your jobs is to program the Spotlight interface
01:15:12
◼
►
on iOS, wouldn't you think that you're really good
01:15:16
◼
►
at using Spotlight and that you might start--
01:15:18
◼
►
- Well, but also, I'm sure it was probably
01:15:21
◼
►
one of those situations where, first of all,
01:15:23
◼
►
on iOS, keyboard support was very rudimentary
01:15:26
◼
►
until iOS 13, like the APIs, I mean,
01:15:29
◼
►
I'm sure they had better stuff privately,
01:15:31
◼
►
but the public APIs for it were pretty rough,
01:15:33
◼
►
pretty rudimentary, and so I bet the whole stack
01:15:37
◼
►
of trying to capture the keyboard input
01:15:38
◼
►
works totally differently on the iOS
01:15:40
◼
►
than it does on Mac probably.
01:15:42
◼
►
And also, that's presumably a part of Springboard,
01:15:44
◼
►
and Springboard is famously this massively complex
01:15:47
◼
►
code base that does all sorts of stuff,
01:15:49
◼
►
and it's apparently been refactored a whole bunch of times
01:15:51
◼
►
to try to deal with its complexity,
01:15:53
◼
►
'cause it's just so big and so complex and so important,
01:15:56
◼
►
it's so critical to the OS, and so I can imagine
01:15:59
◼
►
that was probably a harder job than it sounded like,
01:16:01
◼
►
But that being said, again, it's this whole thing
01:16:04
◼
►
about performance being important or not.
01:16:06
◼
►
When you start talking about these differences
01:16:09
◼
►
between a 20 millisecond activity
01:16:11
◼
►
or a 200 millisecond activity or something like that,
01:16:14
◼
►
it's kind of like death by a thousand cuts.
01:16:15
◼
►
At the time, if something takes 200 milliseconds,
01:16:19
◼
►
that's a pretty frequent interaction
01:16:21
◼
►
that you could make faster,
01:16:22
◼
►
but it might be a little bit inconvenient to make it faster
01:16:25
◼
►
with the way things are built.
01:16:26
◼
►
At the time, you might be able to ship that.
01:16:28
◼
►
You might be able to say, you know what,
01:16:29
◼
►
we're on a tight deadline,
01:16:30
◼
►
"We're trying to ship this in time for the phones,"
01:16:31
◼
►
or whatever, "We have to get it out the door,"
01:16:34
◼
►
it just simply isn't important enough
01:16:36
◼
►
to get that time down right now.
01:16:37
◼
►
We'll do it later, and of course later never comes.
01:16:40
◼
►
And when you have enough of that in an app,
01:16:42
◼
►
or in an OS, or in a platform, it really,
01:16:46
◼
►
and I think this is what Craig Mobb
01:16:47
◼
►
was ultimately getting at, like,
01:16:48
◼
►
the just overall feeling of software
01:16:51
◼
►
that is built that way or that ends up that way
01:16:53
◼
►
is so different, and at no time does it ever seem
01:16:56
◼
►
like a critical problem as you're building it.
01:16:58
◼
►
And the company responsible for it,
01:17:00
◼
►
it might never be economically worthwhile
01:17:02
◼
►
for them to devote the resources
01:17:05
◼
►
to really make it incredibly faster
01:17:06
◼
►
once it is like quote fast enough to be usable like that.
01:17:10
◼
►
But ultimately, that really does result in
01:17:14
◼
►
a feeling of like you're just kind of
01:17:16
◼
►
moving through maple syrup.
01:17:18
◼
►
And to me, the performance in a lot of ways like that
01:17:21
◼
►
is as important as things like input reliability
01:17:24
◼
►
because it's tied to it.
01:17:26
◼
►
Part of the reason why I don't like certain things
01:17:29
◼
►
because I think my keyboard and mouse and trackpad
01:17:33
◼
►
should be 100% reliable, not 99.9% reliable,
01:17:36
◼
►
like 100% reliable.
01:17:38
◼
►
And if you are operating something
01:17:40
◼
►
and if you're typing a sentence
01:17:42
◼
►
and one out of 200 key presses doesn't register,
01:17:45
◼
►
that's a really big problem, actually.
01:17:47
◼
►
It seems like a small number.
01:17:48
◼
►
- I think it could be way higher than that.
01:17:49
◼
►
I mean, I think it could be like one in 10,000
01:17:51
◼
►
and it would drive you nuts.
01:17:53
◼
►
And so you feel like you're not in control at that point.
01:17:56
◼
►
- If you write a thousand word article--
01:17:58
◼
►
- Yeah, I guess it's probably 10,000 keystrokes, right?
01:18:00
◼
►
Yeah, so I feel like if you,
01:18:03
◼
►
you feel like you're not in control of your computer
01:18:06
◼
►
when it just randomly fails and things like that,
01:18:08
◼
►
and performance can give you that impression.
01:18:10
◼
►
Like if you are waiting for something to happen
01:18:13
◼
►
that shouldn't be slow, that is being even a little bit slow,
01:18:16
◼
►
it can give you that same feeling of like,
01:18:19
◼
►
this isn't working properly,
01:18:20
◼
►
or I'm not in full control over this.
01:18:22
◼
►
- One of the features I use a lot,
01:18:26
◼
►
and it annoys, I love the feature,
01:18:29
◼
►
and I'm so glad it's there, but using it every single week,
01:18:33
◼
►
well, I won't use it this week,
01:18:35
◼
►
'cause I don't need to share notes with you,
01:18:36
◼
►
but I use Apple Notes to share
01:18:39
◼
►
show notes with guests on the podcast
01:18:44
◼
►
and then with Caleb who edits,
01:18:47
◼
►
and we toss things in there like links
01:18:50
◼
►
that I often forget to post, title ideas,
01:18:54
◼
►
And the interface, do you use the shared notes feature
01:18:58
◼
►
in Apple Notes?
01:18:59
◼
►
- A little, not a lot.
01:19:00
◼
►
- It's one of those things where I should,
01:19:03
◼
►
it would be harder to write about it.
01:19:05
◼
►
It's like I kind of would probably be better
01:19:07
◼
►
as like a YouTube video.
01:19:08
◼
►
But it commits a sort of, number one, it's just slow.
01:19:13
◼
►
You go up to the share menu and you go to share
01:19:19
◼
►
and then a dialogue comes up.
01:19:20
◼
►
It takes way too long for the dialogue to come up.
01:19:22
◼
►
And again, famously I know, as a user of software,
01:19:27
◼
►
it is generally frowned upon to tell the developer
01:19:32
◼
►
of any particular software that something
01:19:35
◼
►
should be easy to add or fix.
01:19:39
◼
►
- Right, yeah.
01:19:39
◼
►
- Generally-- - It should take you
01:19:40
◼
►
about a day, right?
01:19:41
◼
►
- Explain your problem as politely as you can
01:19:44
◼
►
and let them figure out how easy it is.
01:19:46
◼
►
- How hard could it be?
01:19:48
◼
►
- So I'm not trying to violate that rule,
01:19:50
◼
►
but it doesn't seem like opening up the sharing dialog
01:19:53
◼
►
should take a while.
01:19:55
◼
►
It just takes, it just does not seem snappy enough.
01:19:58
◼
►
But then the part that drives me nuts
01:19:59
◼
►
is I always share it by iMessage,
01:20:02
◼
►
and you hit iMessage, and then the dialog box goes away.
01:20:06
◼
►
And then the one that lets you type the iMessage comes up.
01:20:11
◼
►
- Oh yeah. - And in between,
01:20:14
◼
►
there is no spinner, there's no HUD,
01:20:18
◼
►
it just looks like it failed.
01:20:19
◼
►
like you hit message. And a couple of weeks ago, somebody on Twitter dug up scans of the original
01:20:29
◼
►
Apple human interface guidelines from 1985 or '84, whenever they first published Inside Mac.
01:20:34
◼
►
And it was like the third page of the interface guidelines specifically said that if the user
01:20:41
◼
►
has to wait for something, show as accurate a progress as you can. Ideally, show a
01:20:48
◼
►
- Like a percentage bar kind of thing.
01:20:50
◼
►
- A percentage bar type thing, you know, the bar.
01:20:53
◼
►
If you can't, if it is indeterminate,
01:20:55
◼
►
show the watch cursor, you know,
01:20:57
◼
►
that was the old, the old wait cursor was the watch cursor.
01:21:01
◼
►
And if you used a Mac back then,
01:21:02
◼
►
you got used to the watch cursor.
01:21:04
◼
►
- Because, you know, the computers were so slow.
01:21:06
◼
►
But the watch cursor would appear
01:21:09
◼
►
the second you were waiting on the computer
01:21:11
◼
►
and it disappeared the moment it was done with whatever.
01:21:16
◼
►
And then it was always very accurate.
01:21:18
◼
►
Like if you got your arrow cursor back,
01:21:20
◼
►
you knew that it was done.
01:21:21
◼
►
You know, like talking about spinning hard disks,
01:21:26
◼
►
like you'd hit Command + S in some apps
01:21:28
◼
►
and you'd have to wait for the watch cursor.
01:21:29
◼
►
- Oh yeah, well and again, it's like,
01:21:30
◼
►
'cause back then computers were so slow
01:21:32
◼
►
that you had to design for waiting from the start.
01:21:36
◼
►
Like every app, many features of every app
01:21:39
◼
►
had to be designed right from the beginning
01:21:41
◼
►
for like the user's gonna have to wait
01:21:43
◼
►
for some period of time here,
01:21:44
◼
►
let's make that obvious and clear and everything else.
01:21:46
◼
►
And modern, like I bet whoever,
01:21:48
◼
►
I bet whatever systems are being invoked by
01:21:50
◼
►
the delay between that, you know,
01:21:52
◼
►
the CloudKit share dialogue and the, you know,
01:21:54
◼
►
message send from the share sheet,
01:21:56
◼
►
it probably is not even built with the assumption
01:21:58
◼
►
anybody would ever wait for it.
01:22:00
◼
►
And so there is no affordance.
01:22:01
◼
►
There is, we don't even have a wait cursor anymore.
01:22:04
◼
►
Like we have the beach ball, which is not a good thing.
01:22:06
◼
►
Like that's not something going wrong.
01:22:08
◼
►
You know, but like Mac OS,
01:22:10
◼
►
I don't think even has a wait cursor.
01:22:12
◼
►
- No. - And no modern OS
01:22:13
◼
►
as far as I know does.
01:22:14
◼
►
I don't know if Windows still has the hourglass,
01:22:16
◼
►
but I think we just assume the software
01:22:18
◼
►
doesn't make you wait anymore,
01:22:19
◼
►
or if it does, it'll show it in a nice way in its UI.
01:22:23
◼
►
But anyway, that dialogue, I mean,
01:22:26
◼
►
there's a lot of problems with it.
01:22:28
◼
►
So I don't see it as often in notes.
01:22:30
◼
►
I do see the same dialogue very frequently
01:22:32
◼
►
in photo sharing, in the Photos app.
01:22:35
◼
►
And it always takes me, first of all,
01:22:38
◼
►
it always takes me at least two tries
01:22:40
◼
►
to even bring up the dialogue,
01:22:42
◼
►
'cause I can't find where it,
01:22:44
◼
►
how do I create a shared note or photo album?
01:22:47
◼
►
And I always get it wrong the first time.
01:22:49
◼
►
And then I eventually figure out
01:22:51
◼
►
which button invokes the invite people thing.
01:22:53
◼
►
And it always takes me at least two tries to invite somebody
01:22:56
◼
►
because the link doesn't work
01:22:58
◼
►
or the box just goes away randomly
01:22:59
◼
►
or I thought I invited them
01:23:01
◼
►
but I didn't actually invite them or whatever.
01:23:03
◼
►
Like that whole system is really hard to use
01:23:06
◼
►
and surprisingly inconsistent and surprisingly sloppy.
01:23:09
◼
►
- Yeah, and it's not clear.
01:23:11
◼
►
It's one of those things that they could use
01:23:13
◼
►
from our labels.
01:23:14
◼
►
What is this button you keep pushing over here?
01:23:16
◼
►
- It's a mute button.
01:23:18
◼
►
- So as soon as you're done talking,
01:23:19
◼
►
you just mute yourself.
01:23:20
◼
►
- Yeah, that way I'm not breathing all over you,
01:23:22
◼
►
and I can take a sip from my cup here
01:23:24
◼
►
without you hearing the water sloshing around.
01:23:26
◼
►
- I should probably get one of those.
01:23:28
◼
►
- It's pretty great, yeah.
01:23:29
◼
►
Or rather, so it's the Roles MS-111.
01:23:32
◼
►
It's a totally mediocre mute switch.
01:23:35
◼
►
It's not great, but I have yet to find anything else
01:23:38
◼
►
that works better.
01:23:39
◼
►
Like I tried, Dan Benjamin recommends this one,
01:23:42
◼
►
I forget what it's called, it's like the cough stop
01:23:44
◼
►
or something like that, and I tried it,
01:23:45
◼
►
and every time you push it with a condenser mic,
01:23:48
◼
►
you hear a pop sound, and this is the only one
01:23:51
◼
►
I found that doesn't, but the problem is
01:23:52
◼
►
it doesn't actually mute it all the way,
01:23:53
◼
►
it only drops at like 20 decibels, so if I'm muted,
01:23:57
◼
►
and I talk really loud, you can still hear it.
01:24:00
◼
►
But so it's good for muting the occasional cough
01:24:04
◼
►
or gas or whatever else, but you don't wanna
01:24:07
◼
►
really yell into it when it's muted,
01:24:09
◼
►
'cause you will be heard.
01:24:11
◼
►
All right, let's take one more break here.
01:24:13
◼
►
Thank our third and final sponsor
01:24:15
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of this Midsummer episode of the show, Squarespace.
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- Yes, $40,000.
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Which makes sense, like, you know,
01:24:41
◼
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it isn't that they were being ripped off.
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Like, if you actually are gonna custom develop something
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as nice as what Squarespace offers for, you know,
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20 bucks a month or whatever it is, like,
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you know, Squarespace offers a ton of functionality
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with all their plans, and yet,
01:24:52
◼
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if you go to some development house
01:24:55
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and they need to build it, 40 grand is not unreasonable
01:24:57
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for that amount of functionality.
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Good thing is, you don't have to do that.
01:25:00
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You can just go to Squarespace
01:25:01
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and have it for a lot less than that.
01:25:03
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- So maybe for you, dear listener of the show,
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you need a website, it would be great.
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Build it with Squarespace, try it with Squarespace,
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Just put an hour into it, put two hours into it.
01:25:12
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But especially, I love the angle of keeping Squarespace
01:25:18
◼
►
in your mind for when somebody, friend, family,
01:25:21
◼
►
needs a website and you don't wanna be on the hook
01:25:23
◼
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for updating it, maintaining it, supporting it.
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Just send them to Squarespace.
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It's a great price, great customer service,
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and no coding required.
01:25:35
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It is a very, very what you see is what you get interface
01:25:40
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that a totally non-coder could get in there,
01:25:44
◼
►
customize it, tweak it, get it just the way they like
01:25:47
◼
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with absolutely no coding experience required at all.
01:25:50
◼
►
If you do know how to code, you can get in there,
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◼
►
tweak it as much as you want.
01:25:55
◼
►
I'm constantly surprised.
01:25:58
◼
►
Sometimes you can get into the,
01:26:00
◼
►
you can get like a login dialogue on Squarespace sites
01:26:03
◼
►
by hitting the escape key.
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◼
►
It's configurable, you don't have to have it on.
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◼
►
But every once in a while,
01:26:09
◼
►
like a new restaurant opens in Philly,
01:26:10
◼
►
and I'm a nerd, of course,
01:26:12
◼
►
and I think that's a nice website.
01:26:13
◼
►
And I go up to View Source,
01:26:15
◼
►
and you can look in the headers of the HTML
01:26:17
◼
►
and see if it was made with Squarespace or not.
01:26:20
◼
►
It's absolutely amazing how many new websites from,
01:26:23
◼
►
just, and you know, the restaurant business
01:26:25
◼
►
is so, so style-conscious.
01:26:27
◼
►
There's so everybody, you know,
01:26:28
◼
►
it's hip, new restaurant,
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◼
►
it's supposed to have a beautiful website.
01:26:32
◼
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Where do you go for more?
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◼
►
squarespace.com/talkshow.
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Squarespace.com/talkshow.
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And when you decide to sign up,
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just remember that code talk show,
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and you get 10% off your first purchase.
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01:26:47
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Ah, anything else?
01:26:50
◼
►
- I don't know, what else is going on this summer?
01:26:52
◼
►
- Oh, what about Dropbox?
01:26:53
◼
►
- That's sad.
01:26:56
◼
►
- I, so I, you guys had a good segment
01:27:00
◼
►
on this Dropbox fiasco.
01:27:02
◼
►
I haven't gotten the new interface yet.
01:27:04
◼
►
I don't know what, I don't know what god
01:27:06
◼
►
you have to piss off to get it, but.
01:27:08
◼
►
It's been, I thought you had some interesting insight
01:27:14
◼
►
into this that when you raise that much venture capital,
01:27:17
◼
►
you kind of eventually, and your valuation is high enough,
01:27:20
◼
►
you've got to suddenly compete with,
01:27:23
◼
►
you're trying to be the next Microsoft.
01:27:24
◼
►
- Right, like all of a sudden,
01:27:26
◼
►
you raise that amount of money,
01:27:28
◼
►
you have this kind of business plan in mind
01:27:31
◼
►
that basically is like you becoming the next Office,
01:27:34
◼
►
like the next Microsoft Office,
01:27:35
◼
►
or the next Slack or something.
01:27:37
◼
►
And actually, it's really hard to compete
01:27:41
◼
►
with Microsoft Office or with Google Docs
01:27:44
◼
►
or these giant collaboration platforms.
01:27:47
◼
►
And that's what Dropbox is trying to be.
01:27:48
◼
►
And ultimately, they're not going to succeed.
01:27:51
◼
►
Dropbox is not going to become
01:27:53
◼
►
the next big collaboration platform
01:27:55
◼
►
that's on the level of Microsoft and Google.
01:27:57
◼
►
They're just not.
01:27:59
◼
►
It's a really hard market.
01:28:00
◼
►
Even Slack, you know Slack is trying on some level
01:28:02
◼
►
and Slack is very successful in where it is now,
01:28:07
◼
►
but I don't think Slack is trying to be the next,
01:28:11
◼
►
I don't think they're trying to be the replacement
01:28:13
◼
►
for an entire office suite.
01:28:16
◼
►
I think they're doing their own kind of thing
01:28:18
◼
►
off to the side, whereas Dropbox really does seem
01:28:20
◼
►
like they're trying to replace a lot more
01:28:22
◼
►
than what they are both qualified to do
01:28:25
◼
►
and what they are likely to succeed at doing.
01:28:27
◼
►
- I would be surprised if Slack came out
01:28:30
◼
►
with a file sharing extension that ran on your Mac
01:28:35
◼
►
without you asking for it that shares a folder.
01:28:38
◼
►
- Right, yeah.
01:28:39
◼
►
That seems out of scope for Slack.
01:28:41
◼
►
- Yeah, I think one of the keys to Slack's success
01:28:44
◼
►
in the way that they're very well,
01:28:46
◼
►
people who use Slack a lot,
01:28:48
◼
►
most people seem to really like it,
01:28:49
◼
►
and I think one of the reasons is because they're focused
01:28:51
◼
►
and they know exactly what they wanna do.
01:28:54
◼
►
and boy, Dropbox had that for a while too
01:28:58
◼
►
when it really was just a folder that syncs.
01:29:01
◼
►
- I feel like Dropbox's major success,
01:29:05
◼
►
as far as I can tell,
01:29:06
◼
►
granted I haven't looked into this
01:29:07
◼
►
and I haven't had a real job in a long time,
01:29:09
◼
►
but it seemed like Dropbox's major success
01:29:11
◼
►
was much more on the personal side
01:29:13
◼
►
than on the enterprise side.
01:29:15
◼
►
And it's a very common need for people
01:29:18
◼
►
to share files with themselves and their friends
01:29:20
◼
►
or a couple of coworkers or something like that,
01:29:21
◼
►
but it was very much a personal success.
01:29:25
◼
►
But it's hard to make money in the personal market.
01:29:29
◼
►
It's especially hard to make big, big, big money
01:29:32
◼
►
in the personal market.
01:29:33
◼
►
Like if you're gonna raise hundreds of millions of dollars
01:29:36
◼
►
and try to become worth billions of dollars
01:29:38
◼
►
and have a public stock and everything,
01:29:40
◼
►
you can't just have the consumer market and that be it,
01:29:44
◼
►
unless you are massive and incredibly successful.
01:29:48
◼
►
But that doesn't really happen that often.
01:29:50
◼
►
to raise that kind of money and to have those kind of
01:29:52
◼
►
growth goals in this kind of market,
01:29:54
◼
►
you need the big enterprise business accounts.
01:29:57
◼
►
And I think Slack was very smart by focusing on
01:30:00
◼
►
business stuff right from the start.
01:30:02
◼
►
Slack has always been business focused,
01:30:04
◼
►
and it has succeeded in businesses up to today
01:30:08
◼
►
seemingly very well.
01:30:10
◼
►
I mean, I don't know what their financials are
01:30:11
◼
►
and what their goals are, but it seems like
01:30:13
◼
►
what they set out to do, they are doing very well.
01:30:16
◼
►
And they were business focused right from the start.
01:30:18
◼
►
and they have, you know, people do use Slack
01:30:20
◼
►
for personal stuff also, but they are very,
01:30:23
◼
►
they're operating successfully at what they're trying
01:30:27
◼
►
to do in business, whereas Dropbox seemed like
01:30:29
◼
►
it was a really great personal story,
01:30:32
◼
►
then they realized, oh, we actually want the money
01:30:35
◼
►
from the business, or want/need the money
01:30:37
◼
►
from the business side of this, so we need to pivot this
01:30:39
◼
►
into more of a business product, but unfortunately,
01:30:42
◼
►
they were already so big at that point
01:30:44
◼
►
that both businesses already weren't taking them seriously
01:30:47
◼
►
and the business software providers
01:30:50
◼
►
were already introducing their own Dropbox-like things.
01:30:53
◼
►
So they were already kind of getting
01:30:54
◼
►
Sherlock'd over there on that end.
01:30:56
◼
►
And then also, the personal side of things
01:30:59
◼
►
was not interested in what Dropbox was doing.
01:31:02
◼
►
Like all the stuff Dropbox tried to do
01:31:03
◼
►
to push themselves more into business
01:31:05
◼
►
mostly just pisses off their personal customers.
01:31:09
◼
►
And so I feel like, that's why I feel like
01:31:11
◼
►
they're kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place.
01:31:14
◼
►
I understand why they're doing what they're doing
01:31:16
◼
►
given the situation they're in,
01:31:17
◼
►
where they've raised all this money,
01:31:19
◼
►
they're trying to become a big business thing.
01:31:23
◼
►
It makes sense to do what they're doing now,
01:31:26
◼
►
given those conditions.
01:31:27
◼
►
The real flaw was getting themselves
01:31:29
◼
►
into those conditions in the first place.
01:31:31
◼
►
Like, instead of raising all this money
01:31:32
◼
►
and trying to become something really big,
01:31:34
◼
►
they should've, I think, they should've stuck
01:31:36
◼
►
with the personal market, but that would've resulted
01:31:38
◼
►
in a smaller company and smaller finances
01:31:40
◼
►
and everything else, but they could've succeeded.
01:31:42
◼
►
They could've been sustainable doing that
01:31:44
◼
►
and had a really nice business.
01:31:45
◼
►
but that wasn't what they were going for.
01:31:48
◼
►
- Right, it's, you know, overcast isn't trying
01:31:53
◼
►
to be the iTunes music store.
01:31:55
◼
►
- Right. - You know,
01:31:56
◼
►
Daring Fireball isn't trying to be the New York Times.
01:31:59
◼
►
- And if we tried, we would probably fail.
01:32:01
◼
►
- Right, like I have a nice business
01:32:03
◼
►
that supports one employee.
01:32:04
◼
►
- Yeah, exactly. - Me,
01:32:06
◼
►
not that I have anybody else.
01:32:07
◼
►
And that's fine for me, but if I had raised venture capital,
01:32:13
◼
►
probably wouldn't be seen as a good business.
01:32:15
◼
►
- Right, exactly, yeah.
01:32:16
◼
►
Yeah, overcast would be a terrible return for VCs,
01:32:18
◼
►
as honestly as many podcasting-related ventures are,
01:32:23
◼
►
as I think the unfortunate luminary investors
01:32:27
◼
►
are discovering right about now,
01:32:29
◼
►
as they set $100 million on fire to a podcast app
01:32:34
◼
►
that seems to have no noticeable market share.
01:32:37
◼
►
- Yeah, and I haven't heard,
01:32:40
◼
►
I haven't really heard anything about it.
01:32:41
◼
►
Like they obviously got a decent initial injection
01:32:46
◼
►
of publicity based on some of the names
01:32:49
◼
►
of some of the people who are associated
01:32:52
◼
►
with the star power.
01:32:53
◼
►
People like to write the hot take of,
01:32:58
◼
►
hey, here's the next big thing in podcasting,
01:32:59
◼
►
it's the Netflix of podcasting or something like that.
01:33:02
◼
►
That sounds good as a slogan.
01:33:05
◼
►
- People can write whatever articles they want.
01:33:06
◼
►
Doesn't make it true.
01:33:07
◼
►
Doesn't actually make it play out that way, right?
01:33:11
◼
►
A lot of the press, and especially the business press,
01:33:14
◼
►
they can tell podcasting is hot.
01:33:16
◼
►
They want some kind of big platform plays
01:33:19
◼
►
to start happening so that both the investor side
01:33:21
◼
►
can make a bunch of money, and so that it shakes
01:33:23
◼
►
everything up and gives the press a lot to write about,
01:33:25
◼
►
and that's how other media have played out,
01:33:29
◼
►
so they kind of expect the same thing to happen.
01:33:32
◼
►
But the podcast market has shown itself
01:33:33
◼
►
over and over again to not work that way.
01:33:36
◼
►
And that basically the podcast market has
01:33:39
◼
►
a whole lot of inertia behind keeping things
01:33:41
◼
►
pretty much the way they are,
01:33:43
◼
►
and that's the most likely outcome here.
01:33:46
◼
►
So you can't try to make $100 million back in podcasting
01:33:50
◼
►
and expect that to succeed very well
01:33:53
◼
►
with pretty much any kind of effort,
01:33:55
◼
►
'cause that isn't the kind of business it is.
01:33:56
◼
►
Similarly, yeah, and so it's like, with Dropbox,
01:33:59
◼
►
and it's like maybe this whole folder that syncs
01:34:01
◼
►
between your computers thing
01:34:03
◼
►
that was mostly for personal use,
01:34:05
◼
►
maybe that shouldn't have ever been
01:34:07
◼
►
billion-dollar business. Yeah, and it's different. You know, people have been listening to audio
01:34:12
◼
►
content as long as we've had consumer electronics. It used to be called radio, but the radio market
01:34:18
◼
►
was very different simply because, you know, like Philadelphia had like two classic rock stations,
01:34:23
◼
►
you know? So if you wanted to listen to classic rock, you'd have two choices in a city of
01:34:28
◼
►
of millions. There's not really a market for like a make a lot of money in radio with 40,000
01:34:39
◼
►
listeners. Right, yeah, exactly. You know, and there might be some stations that only have 40,000
01:34:44
◼
►
listeners because they're rural or it's truly niche programming or something like that, but
01:34:50
◼
►
they're not making tens of millions of dollars, they're making... Yeah, they're supporting like
01:34:55
◼
►
like a single family or like a small number of families.
01:34:59
◼
►
Like it's not, you're not gonna, yeah,
01:35:00
◼
►
it's not gonna become a billion dollar business.
01:35:03
◼
►
- Did you see the story?
01:35:04
◼
►
I'm sure you did.
01:35:05
◼
►
I think you did, I think you guys even talked about it,
01:35:06
◼
►
but Bloomberg had a story a couple weeks ago,
01:35:09
◼
►
speaking of paid podcasting,
01:35:10
◼
►
that Apple is supposedly working on backing,
01:35:15
◼
►
doing their own luminary type thing, I guess.
01:35:19
◼
►
- Yeah, it was very light on the details.
01:35:22
◼
►
- Very, very light.
01:35:23
◼
►
The actual meat of the story was basically,
01:35:26
◼
►
some people are saying that Apple is thinking
01:35:28
◼
►
about doing something like this,
01:35:30
◼
►
which is very much like, there's not much there there.
01:35:34
◼
►
- And it definitely fits with the story
01:35:38
◼
►
they've been selling Wall Street for two years
01:35:40
◼
►
about services, and I'm not saying it's a bill of goods.
01:35:42
◼
►
They obviously, they report the money
01:35:44
◼
►
in the services business is absolutely growing.
01:35:46
◼
►
So I'm not saying that they're not actually focused
01:35:51
◼
►
and growing services and they had a services event
01:35:54
◼
►
just earlier this year where they've talked about
01:35:57
◼
►
the Apple News and Apple Arcade
01:35:59
◼
►
and obviously the new TV stuff,
01:36:03
◼
►
which is probably the highest profile.
01:36:05
◼
►
I don't know about podcasts though.
01:36:10
◼
►
And I don't know that it's something they have to do, right?
01:36:16
◼
►
And they already have Apple Music.
01:36:17
◼
►
Like how many things do they want us to subscribe to?
01:36:19
◼
►
And would it be like, you know,
01:36:21
◼
►
if you already have Apple Music,
01:36:25
◼
►
you get the podcast for free?
01:36:28
◼
►
But why music?
01:36:29
◼
►
Wouldn't it be, would it, you know--
01:36:30
◼
►
- What would it be part of, News Plus, maybe?
01:36:33
◼
►
- Podcasts don't really fit
01:36:34
◼
►
into any of the other subscription ones, right?
01:36:37
◼
►
It's not really news.
01:36:38
◼
►
- Yeah, I think music would be the most obvious one.
01:36:39
◼
►
Or if they ever did do like a big bundle,
01:36:42
◼
►
it would just be one of the many things
01:36:43
◼
►
you'd get from the bundle.
01:36:44
◼
►
- Right, when you get the Apple Bundle.
01:36:46
◼
►
- Yeah, it would be hard to have it stand on its own.
01:36:48
◼
►
I mean, this is one thing, and one of the reasons why,
01:36:51
◼
►
you know, Apple's presence in podcasting is massive.
01:36:54
◼
►
Like, they have this huge market share.
01:36:56
◼
►
They run by far the most important and biggest directory
01:36:59
◼
►
that a lot of apps, including mine,
01:37:01
◼
►
actually search against.
01:37:02
◼
►
You know, their client has, by far,
01:37:04
◼
►
the biggest listenership.
01:37:06
◼
►
Apple is podcasting to a large degree.
01:37:08
◼
►
And so, for them to try anything like this
01:37:11
◼
►
that, like, introduces content that's maybe locked down
01:37:13
◼
►
to them, or, you know, requires a paid subscription,
01:37:16
◼
►
Although, actually, I think one thing that I think
01:37:18
◼
►
Jason Snell brought up is like,
01:37:19
◼
►
I think it would actually be more damaging
01:37:21
◼
►
to the ecosystem if it was free.
01:37:23
◼
►
- Right, right. - If it was like,
01:37:24
◼
►
you could listen to these free podcasts,
01:37:26
◼
►
but only an Apple podcast and not any other apps like mine.
01:37:29
◼
►
Like, that would actually be, I think,
01:37:30
◼
►
significantly more damaging.
01:37:31
◼
►
But, you know, ultimately, even though they have
01:37:33
◼
►
all this power, like, I forget whether I've said this
01:37:36
◼
►
on a podcast yet, but like, so for years, I've been,
01:37:39
◼
►
I was noodling the idea in the back of my head of like,
01:37:41
◼
►
doing a kind of like readability thing for podcasts,
01:37:44
◼
►
of like you pay, suppose you pay overcast
01:37:46
◼
►
like 20 bucks a month and I would split it out
01:37:49
◼
►
and pay the podcast you listen to if they participated
01:37:52
◼
►
in this thing, I'd like you know,
01:37:53
◼
►
revenue share with all of them and I would take like
01:37:56
◼
►
you know, 10% for running it or whatever.
01:37:58
◼
►
And I talked, I ran this idea by a bunch of podcasters
01:38:01
◼
►
a few years ago, big and small, friends and you know,
01:38:04
◼
►
non-friends, like so you know, they wouldn't be too biased.
01:38:07
◼
►
And everyone basically said the same thing like,
01:38:08
◼
►
no it isn't worth it because like I guess I would take
01:38:11
◼
►
your money but I would never promote it because I have
01:38:13
◼
►
my own method of monetization,
01:38:15
◼
►
whether they have the listenership,
01:38:16
◼
►
or they have memberships, or they have private feeds,
01:38:18
◼
►
or they do ads or Patreons or whatever.
01:38:20
◼
►
- I seem to recall telling you this.
01:38:22
◼
►
- Yeah, everyone did.
01:38:23
◼
►
- I'm pretty sure you asked me.
01:38:25
◼
►
- Yeah, I probably did.
01:38:26
◼
►
I asked every podcaster I knew,
01:38:27
◼
►
plus some of the big ones,
01:38:28
◼
►
and they all were very gracious with their time,
01:38:30
◼
►
and basically said, yeah, I would take your money,
01:38:32
◼
►
but I wouldn't promote it,
01:38:33
◼
►
'cause I don't want other people
01:38:35
◼
►
getting in the way of me making my money.
01:38:36
◼
►
But anyway, assuming a program like that could exist,
01:38:41
◼
►
And so I ran the numbers and I kind of came
01:38:43
◼
►
to the conclusion that even if I could get everyone
01:38:45
◼
►
to do it, whatever that 10% that I would take,
01:38:48
◼
►
whatever it would be, it just wouldn't be enough money
01:38:51
◼
►
to make it worth the hassle and overhead
01:38:53
◼
►
of running this kind of program.
01:38:55
◼
►
And distributing all this money,
01:38:56
◼
►
handling everyone's finances, it's a lot of burden
01:39:00
◼
►
and it's a lot of messiness.
01:39:01
◼
►
And the amount of money I would likely make
01:39:03
◼
►
from it, assuming certain conservative percentages
01:39:05
◼
►
of how many people would want to pay and everything,
01:39:07
◼
►
it just wasn't enough money to make it worth it to me.
01:39:09
◼
►
But as a thought exercise, a few months back,
01:39:12
◼
►
I'd thought, well, I know my market share,
01:39:15
◼
►
and I know Apple's market share.
01:39:16
◼
►
So I extrapolated, what would Apple make
01:39:19
◼
►
by running a program like this,
01:39:20
◼
►
if they wanted to do something like this,
01:39:21
◼
►
where you pay Apple some service fee,
01:39:24
◼
►
and they split it up, kind of like they do with News Plus,
01:39:26
◼
►
they split it up to the podcast you listen to and pay them,
01:39:28
◼
►
like if you listen within Apple's app.
01:39:31
◼
►
What if they ran a program like this?
01:39:33
◼
►
How much money would they make?
01:39:35
◼
►
And I forget the number I came up with,
01:39:36
◼
►
but it was something like a couple of million dollars a year
01:39:40
◼
►
and it's like it just wasn't enough.
01:39:42
◼
►
- It doesn't move the needle for them.
01:39:43
◼
►
- Yeah, for them, a couple million dollars a year,
01:39:45
◼
►
it would be definitely not worth the administration
01:39:48
◼
►
of running such a program.
01:39:50
◼
►
All the costs involved in paying all those podcasters out
01:39:54
◼
►
and dealing with them all and dealing with the signups
01:39:56
◼
►
and dealing with the people and having to market
01:39:58
◼
►
this kind of thing to people to get them
01:40:00
◼
►
to buy the subscriptions in the first place
01:40:01
◼
►
and the engineering behind it.
01:40:03
◼
►
It's so much effort to run such a program.
01:40:05
◼
►
Podcasts, while it's a very big market
01:40:09
◼
►
for the content side of things,
01:40:11
◼
►
the platform side of things,
01:40:12
◼
►
it's hard to get enough people,
01:40:14
◼
►
especially paying people,
01:40:15
◼
►
to really make big money as a platform.
01:40:19
◼
►
Podcasting simply isn't big enough yet.
01:40:21
◼
►
And it may never be.
01:40:23
◼
►
It may be like talk radio.
01:40:26
◼
►
Talk radio kind of capped out.
01:40:28
◼
►
Talk radio is not still growing.
01:40:30
◼
►
It kind of capped out at a natural point
01:40:32
◼
►
where this is just how many people want this kind of thing,
01:40:34
◼
►
and that's it.
01:40:35
◼
►
Podcasting is still growing, but not incredibly quickly.
01:40:39
◼
►
Like, maybe it's already capped out.
01:40:41
◼
►
Maybe it's mostly done growing,
01:40:43
◼
►
or maybe it's almost done growing.
01:40:46
◼
►
And so even having their giant market share,
01:40:50
◼
►
trying to get people to pay for something on a large scale
01:40:54
◼
►
as the platform owner doesn't really pay.
01:40:58
◼
►
The math doesn't work out very well
01:40:59
◼
►
for a company that big to have a meaningful pay rate
01:41:02
◼
►
and to make meaningful money from paid podcast.
01:41:04
◼
►
Now, the economic change when you are the content provider.
01:41:08
◼
►
Like if you're trying to do the platform play
01:41:10
◼
►
where you take 10% or 30% of everything,
01:41:13
◼
►
it's hard to make enough money there to matter.
01:41:15
◼
►
But if you are making the 70% or the 90% of that,
01:41:19
◼
►
then your economics change.
01:41:21
◼
►
So it does make sense for a lot of individual podcasts
01:41:24
◼
►
to have a paid premium tier where they make
01:41:28
◼
►
most of the money from the listeners and everything.
01:41:30
◼
►
That economics are totally different.
01:41:33
◼
►
That often works out.
01:41:34
◼
►
and that's why there aren't so many of those.
01:41:35
◼
►
But on the platform side, it doesn't make a ton of sense
01:41:38
◼
►
for them to be like a pay everyone kind of solution.
01:41:41
◼
►
But this rumor wasn't about that.
01:41:42
◼
►
This rumor was about them making exclusive content
01:41:45
◼
►
and presumably tying it behind some kind of pay wall.
01:41:50
◼
►
And so from that, the math could work on that for them,
01:41:54
◼
►
but again, I think it would be most likely
01:41:59
◼
►
to be an add-on to Apple Music or something,
01:42:02
◼
►
not a standalone thing.
01:42:03
◼
►
- Well, while we're on this topic of podcasts,
01:42:08
◼
►
I know you and I have talked about this before.
01:42:11
◼
►
I find one of the strangest things
01:42:14
◼
►
about the podcast ecosystem is Apple's
01:42:18
◼
►
outsized dominance in market share,
01:42:22
◼
►
because they're, I mean, I presume,
01:42:25
◼
►
you would actually know this,
01:42:27
◼
►
but I presume most people who use Apple podcasts
01:42:30
◼
►
on their phone.
01:42:32
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►
People certainly use the Mac versions.
01:42:36
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I know people definitely use that.
01:42:37
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But there's this thing called Android,
01:42:43
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which has greater worldwide market share than the iPhone.
01:42:47
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And yet, even though Google has made some steps,
01:42:50
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you would think that's a business
01:42:51
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Google would want to be in, right?
01:42:53
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- Well, demographically, I mean,
01:42:57
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there are podcast players on Android.
01:42:59
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Google I think has made three of them so far.
01:43:01
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- And they just don't take off.
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- They don't go anywhere.
01:43:04
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- I think what you're seeing here is something that,
01:43:07
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I think a lot of people either don't see
01:43:11
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or don't want to say, but that the Android market
01:43:15
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is different from the iPhone market,
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demographically speaking.
01:43:17
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And the demographics of people who listen to podcasts
01:43:20
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are significantly tilted towards higher income,
01:43:24
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better educated, more liberal people.
01:43:26
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And those are the opposite demographics
01:43:28
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that Android tends to be tilted towards.
01:43:30
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So what you see is even though Android has a larger
01:43:33
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market share of devices worldwide,
01:43:37
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that it isn't so evenly spread,
01:43:38
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or it's the opposite for podcast listeners.
01:43:41
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Podcast listeners so far are significantly
01:43:45
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in favor of iOS.
01:43:47
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So there's actually, our friends over at Libsyn,
01:43:50
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Libsyn is a huge podcast host, been around forever.
01:43:52
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They host tons and tons of podcasts, big and small,
01:43:55
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including I believe both of these podcasts, right?
01:43:56
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- No, I'm still on SoundCloud.
01:43:58
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- Oh, geez, you gotta get off SoundCloud.
01:43:59
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Well, anyway, at least including ATP.
01:44:01
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- I have a lot of accumulated CMS data.
01:44:04
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- Yeah, yeah, you really do.
01:44:06
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Oh, God, I can't believe SoundCloud
01:44:08
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is still hosting podcasts.
01:44:09
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Anyway, but for everyone else who's on Libsan,
01:44:13
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they do a podcast called The Feed
01:44:17
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where two people from Libsan talk about podcast trends
01:44:22
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and how-to and everything, and part of that show
01:44:24
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every month is that they share data about user agents
01:44:27
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and what percentage of Libsyn's network-wide downloads
01:44:30
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are going to podcast clients like mine and Apple's,
01:44:33
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and they also break it down by platform,
01:44:35
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like Android versus iOS.
01:44:37
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And the Android to iOS ratio has been shrinking over time.
01:44:41
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It used to, a couple years ago,
01:44:43
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I think it was like seven or eight to one in favor of iOS,
01:44:46
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and now it's closer to like three to one or four to one,
01:44:49
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but it's still like, that's still, you know,
01:44:50
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iOS to have like, you know, three to one advantage
01:44:53
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over Android for podcast downloads across this entire
01:44:56
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network that hosts a huge variety of shows,
01:44:58
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so I think it's probably pretty representative
01:45:00
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of the market as a whole.
01:45:03
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That is totally out of whack with the actual market share
01:45:07
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of those platforms in a hardware sense.
01:45:10
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- You would think it would be more like Chrome and Safari.
01:45:12
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- Right, yeah, it's like you would think,
01:45:13
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based on Android's market share, you would think
01:45:15
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that Android would outnumber iPhone downloads
01:45:18
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something like two to one, but instead,
01:45:20
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it's the opposite direction and it's iPhone
01:45:22
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remembering Android like three to one for podcast downloads.
01:45:24
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So it's very much a demographic difference
01:45:27
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between those two platforms.
01:45:28
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And I think that's part of the reason, among some others,
01:45:30
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but that's part of the reason I think why Google
01:45:32
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has had no meaningful success having their own
01:45:35
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big podcast app on Android.
01:45:38
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- Here's my stats for my show.
01:45:40
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Overcast is number one, but our audience is--
01:45:44
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- Yeah, our audience is not representative.
01:45:47
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- Three times the market share of Apple Core Media iPhone,
01:45:51
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which is listening on the iPhone.
01:45:53
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But they list iTunes separately,
01:45:55
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so that's another 4% or so.
01:45:59
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- Yeah, desktop iTunes is not meaningful market share
01:46:02
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for most podcasts.
01:46:04
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- The only other third party,
01:46:07
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Pocket Casts is about 1/5 the size of iPhone,
01:46:11
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Apple's iPhone client.
01:46:14
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Castro's in the top 10, it's a great app.
01:46:19
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- Really, it's all just rounding errors after iTunes,
01:46:23
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or Apple's podcast app and Overcast.
01:46:26
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- Fun fact, according to Libsyn's stats,
01:46:27
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Castor has more market share than Luminary.
01:46:32
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- Somehow that feels good.
01:46:33
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- It really does, actually.
01:46:34
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I'm very happy with that.
01:46:36
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- All right, we gotta wrap this up.
01:46:37
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This is probably the shortest Marco Arma appearance
01:46:40
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►
on the talk show in history.
01:46:42
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- Yeah, probably.
01:46:42
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- But I think we're out of stuff.
01:46:45
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I think we gotta, we have--
01:46:48
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- We probably should go to dinner.
01:46:49
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friends and family who are waiting for us to go to dinner, so we should wrap it up.
01:46:52
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Marco, I'm glad, happy to be here. I want to say thank you for inviting me and my family to your
01:46:58
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home, and thank you for taking time out of vacation week to do my show. Yeah, thanks for having me.
01:47:03
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It was a lot of fun, as usual. I always like it. It's always fun to do a show in person. Oh,
01:47:06
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yeah, definitely. Oh, I guess I should thank our sponsors. Yep. Squarespace, Linode, Linode,
01:47:14
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- And fracture. - And fracture.
01:47:15
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- Is that it? - Yeah.
01:47:16
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- Yeah, yeah. - Yeah, before my podcast,
01:47:18
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Amnesia, kicks in. - Exactly.
01:47:21
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And we'll see you next week.
01:47:22
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- And we'll see, well, we'll see.
01:47:23
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I might need a break. (laughing)
01:47:24
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- Yeah, we've done a lot of shows.
01:47:26
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- Yeah, see you in a couple weeks.