The Talk Show

199: ‘Under Rumored’ With Jim Dalrymple


00:00:00   I have not been more excited for an Apple event in recent memory than next week's.

00:00:07   I don't know about you, but I am excited because I feel like there's a lot we don't

00:00:13   know.

00:00:14   Yeah, I think so.

00:00:15   And it's kind of funny because I think part of the excitement comes from where it's

00:00:22   going to be.

00:00:23   And part of the excitement comes from what's gonna be announced and what we don't know

00:00:29   about what's gonna be announced.

00:00:30   I mean, we have a lot of, well, I won't say details.

00:00:35   We have a lot of speculation and rumor on the new iPhone.

00:00:40   But there's a lot of questions to be answered.

00:00:44   Dr. Justin Marchegiani It is not a complete black box.

00:00:48   But it's, I would say, I would venture to say

00:00:50   it is as close to as little as we could know as possible.

00:00:54   Like, just given the nature of what leaks out

00:00:57   of the Asian supply chain and is outside Apple's control,

00:01:01   it would be very, I mean, there's a,

00:01:04   the only thing I can think, there's a few things

00:01:06   we gleaned from that botched release of the HomePod OS,

00:01:11   right, and that when they, you know, a month or so ago,

00:01:14   when they publicly released that version

00:01:17   of iOS and then, you know, the Stephen Troughton Smith

00:01:22   and his cohorts, you know, went through

00:01:24   and found a bunch of resources.

00:01:25   So there's a few things that were gleaned from that

00:01:27   that were within Apple's control,

00:01:30   but otherwise, we don't know much.

00:01:32   I really don't.

00:01:33   And like you said, even the venue is sort of a mystery.

00:01:35   I mean, what's it like?

00:01:36   I mean, there's blueprints.

00:01:37   There were blueprints published

00:01:39   of what the theater looked like,

00:01:41   but I mean, that doesn't really,

00:01:42   and some leaked photos during construction, but.

00:01:45   - Right.

00:01:46   I don't know, it's the first event ever held there.

00:01:48   It's kind of cool.

00:01:50   - I'm looking forward to it.

00:01:52   Even that part of it, to get to,

00:01:55   I mean, I assume we'll be walking past the ring

00:01:59   to get to-- - That's the funny part,

00:02:04   is that it's, I don't even know where we're gonna park.

00:02:07   Right? - I know, I know.

00:02:09   I have no idea.

00:02:10   - I don't know about you, but I didn't even,

00:02:11   I mean, I got emailed with the invitation

00:02:14   and I've gotten a few emails setting up times

00:02:17   for post-event briefings.

00:02:20   But even there, it was like,

00:02:24   we'll give you more information on the details

00:02:27   of how to get there later.

00:02:29   - Yeah. - And it's Friday.

00:02:31   - Yeah, very, yeah.

00:02:32   - I know, I know, I know.

00:02:35   And I really am, I'm looking forward

00:02:38   to that whole aspect of it.

00:02:40   - Yeah. - It's gonna be great.

00:02:41   - Among the things that leaked, there was a,

00:02:43   Who was it?

00:02:44   There's like the journals had,

00:02:45   Wall Street Journal's had a bunch of things recently,

00:02:48   but I think it was the Wall Street Journal

00:02:50   who like two weeks ago,

00:02:51   it was before I did the last episode with Jason Snell,

00:02:54   where they said that they,

00:02:56   it was before the invitations went out

00:02:58   and they had the date.

00:02:59   They said it's gonna be Tuesday the 12th.

00:03:01   And they said, and they think that,

00:03:04   or Apple plans to have it in the Steve Jobs Theater,

00:03:07   but who knows?

00:03:08   And it's like, two weeks before the event, they know.

00:03:12   - Oh yeah, they know.

00:03:13   - That made it so curious, but I always,

00:03:16   immediately my mind works at that meta level of journalism

00:03:21   and I'm thinking like, who is this?

00:03:23   And it was just attributed to sources familiar

00:03:25   with the situation or something, you know,

00:03:27   that one of those vague standard anonymous attributions.

00:03:32   But it's like, I don't know, it's just so interesting to me

00:03:38   like behind the scenes who it was that leaked the date

00:03:41   if they didn't know the actual venue

00:03:43   or did they leak the date?

00:03:45   It was just somebody who knew the date and the venue

00:03:46   but said, you know, but you can't even use the fact

00:03:51   that it's gonna be at the Steve Jobs Theater anonymously.

00:03:54   I don't know.

00:03:55   But it's, you know, they knew.

00:03:57   - Of course they knew.

00:03:59   Yeah, I mean, you know, as much as we talk

00:04:02   and as much speculation as there is out there,

00:04:05   there's probably literally a handful of people at Apple

00:04:10   at Apple, Tim Schiller and a couple of others that know what's coming.

00:04:16   Yeah. But the event rollout though, there's a big team behind that. In the last few years where they

00:04:24   had it at the Bill... Not Bill James, Bill James is the baseball writer, Bill Graham Civic Auditorium.

00:04:31   I think it was the last two years in a row the September event was held there. They effectively

00:04:37   both times built their own building in the building. I mean, it was like, but it was

00:04:42   almost stunning that it was a temporary structure. The seating, the two years ago when they had

00:04:49   it all set up with the Apple TV stuff, with a bunch of, you know, like fake living rooms,

00:04:54   all of it was a temporary structure. Like, that's not the sort of thing that you can

00:04:59   do, you know, like, oh, well, the theater is not really fully constructed. Let's call

00:05:04   the Bill Graham three days before the event and see if we can quick put up a building.

00:05:11   You know what I mean? Like the amount of prep that Apple puts into these events is just

00:05:15   stunning. It's just one of those little things that's hard to convey. I mention it on the

00:05:22   podcast whenever we talk about these events and sometimes I write about it when I write

00:05:26   my post event thoughts and first thoughts about the event or whatever. But I don't know

00:05:33   know if I do justice to just how much effort Apple puts into the pomp and circumstance.

00:05:40   I don't know how else to describe it. You know what I mean?

00:05:44   Well, for anybody that hasn't been there, I think what's important to know about these

00:05:52   events is that Apple puts as much work into the event itself as it does with the products.

00:05:57   Yes.

00:05:58   You know, it's it really is stunning to walk into an Apple event and see

00:06:04   every little detail is taken care of and for

00:06:09   for for you and I and and others but for you and I when we're done with the done with

00:06:18   The the event the keynote is over then we're we're in a nice very

00:06:26   Nice doesn't even describe it beautiful hands-on area

00:06:29   where we we you know get some time with the products and then we're whisked away to a

00:06:36   waiting area where

00:06:38   they have you know coffee and muffins or whatever and then into a

00:06:43   briefing

00:06:45   with

00:06:46   Apple execs and

00:06:48   it's just

00:06:50   Every part of that just goes off so flawlessly and I don't know about you

00:06:54   but I've been to other events where whether it's a trade show or

00:06:58   You know an event like this for another company where it's just mind-blowing how bad it is. Yeah, I

00:07:06   haven't been to a lot for other companies, but I was at the for the original Microsoft surface the

00:07:14   first batch which was when they had the the dual strategy of

00:07:21   Or Windows RT, which was all the new touch-based metro

00:07:25   Interface running on an ARM tablet and then they had the thicker heavier tablet that ran

00:07:32   the full version of Windows with the

00:07:35   Metro interface it was weird

00:07:37   And that was in New York, and it was not bad

00:07:40   It definitely wasn't bad, but it and they definitely spent a lot of money on it, but it was

00:07:46   nowhere near as

00:07:50   polished and the flow from one segment to another like from before the event to the event to where

00:07:57   do you go after the event was totally haphazard. You know, it was sort of like every man for himself

00:08:03   in those periods. Well, you can spend a lot of money on things and still not get it right. It's

00:08:09   the attention to detail that always seems to get right. And it's not just about the event, but

00:08:19   like you said, the flow and then the products. I mean that's good and bad for Apple, especially

00:08:25   when it comes to product because now that's what we expect. And when something isn't right,

00:08:30   then we say, "Okay, well, for any other company, that's probably good enough."

00:08:38   I think my favorite example of Apple going over the top for the hands-on area was,

00:08:44   I think Katie Cotton was still there. I'm pretty sure. It might have been the last

00:08:52   year that she was there running the event. And they had it, it was, I think it was an iPhone event,

00:08:57   and they had it at the Yerba Buena Theater, which is a nice little theater, but it doesn't seat a

00:09:04   lot of people, I don't think. And then there's a small hands-on area behind there, which is sort of

00:09:13   in a room where I don't even know what the normal purpose of that room is. It might just be like the

00:09:17   lobby. You know, it's like the lobby where people you know, if there's like, if you go to a play or

00:09:22   an opera or something, and there's a intermission, like where people can go and I don't know,

00:09:26   get a drink or a snack or mingle or whatever, but it's pretty small, and dark. And Apple literally

00:09:34   had a construction crew come in and cut out the back wall to make it open air and get sunlight.

00:09:40   And I remember talking to Kate, I know it was Katie and Katie was still there. And she was

00:09:45   effectively in charge of when she was running PR, she was one of her like, you know, not listed

00:09:52   under her job title things, but she kind of oversaw events. And I just remember saying to

00:09:58   her, like, how much did that cost? And she goes, John, we're Apple. It was like, I was like, I

00:10:04   guess, you know, but it is just crazy. Like, they literally cut a hole in the wall. And then like,

00:10:09   after the event had a construction crew come in and put the wall back up.

00:10:11   And that's the level that they'll go to. Can you imagine if you ran your baboina and

00:10:19   Apple calls up and like, "Hey, we want to cut a hole in the wall." You'd be like, "Fuck you."

00:10:23   And then it'd be like, "How much would that cost?" And they're like, "Well,

00:10:25   and then you throw a number out and Apple's like, "Done."

00:10:30   Yeah. Yeah. But that's what they do. You know my favorite one? If you remember,

00:10:38   I think it was probably maybe three years ago at DeAnza College.

00:10:43   They built an entire structure outside of DeAnza and it was the most beautiful structure you've

00:10:53   ever seen. Now from the outside it was pure white. That was the one where Apple Watch debuted, right?

00:10:59   Yes, yes. But inside was absolutely stunning. I mean, I would have lived there.

00:11:07   Right, it was.

00:11:08   It was, it was, that was my favorite example of just how far Apple is willing to go. And,

00:11:18   you know after i've been going to apple events since 1999 and you know we we've been through

00:11:30   a lot from mac world events which are you know they they weren't as nice to apple's own events

00:11:37   and how they built them out and and now you know they're building buildings right for one day one

00:11:46   day so that's why I'm a little intrigued about the Steve Jobs theater because now

00:11:50   they have you know a permanent theater I mean yes this is obviously going to be

00:11:57   where probably every Apple event other than WWDC keynotes will take place for

00:12:02   the rest of our careers really I mean oh yeah yeah yeah so I'm a little

00:12:07   intrigued like if they put that much effort into the hands-on area for

00:12:10   temporary structures how much effort did they put into the hands-on area of the

00:12:15   place where they're gonna they they intend to have these events for 30 years. I know.

00:12:20   Like I'm really kind of looking forward to that just architecturally I'm really kind of

00:12:24   intrigued to just geek out on the Steve Jobs Theater. Well it's it's I would imagine that

00:12:33   it's going to be like the old Roman amphitheaters where Tim probably doesn't even need a microphone

00:12:41   You know where you you can talk and it's just gonna resonate throughout the whole theater. I don't know a thousand people

00:12:47   I bet this

00:12:48   I bet the sound

00:12:50   and

00:12:52   the uh, the

00:12:54   Av that's going to be in there, right? Like it's just going to be spectacular, right?

00:12:58   Like what kind of screen are they going to put up there if it's a permanent if you know if they can

00:13:02   Spend the money and make it permanent. It's going to be great

00:13:05   Oh, it's going to be outstanding

00:13:08   but

00:13:10   You know, it's funny. Do you think that all the pictures now?

00:13:14   For the two hours leading up to

00:13:18   The big unveil the big unveil is going to be the campus because we're all going to be walking through there

00:13:24   We're all going to be taking pictures and posting them twitter is just going to be a madhouse

00:13:28   of

00:13:30   Everybody posting their pictures. Yeah, so

00:13:33   There's going to be two big unveils or three really because we're going to be walking past the ring

00:13:38   I don't know about you, but I've never been there. So I've driven me driven those pictures. Yeah,

00:13:44   I've driven by just from like the highway, whatever highway it is that's that goes by 280. Yeah,

00:13:49   yeah. I tried to parachute him once but Johnny was there with a sniper rifle. So 1000 1000 seats is

00:13:58   I wonder there's no I don't think that there's possibly going to be 1000 members of the media.

00:14:04   I mean, I think that there's gonna be a lot of employees,

00:14:06   'cause that was sort of what they did at the Bill Graham,

00:14:09   I mean, not even sort of,

00:14:10   it's exactly what they did at the Bill Graham Auditorium,

00:14:13   where the bottom section was media and invited guests.

00:14:18   - Right. - And then the upper level

00:14:21   was just Apple employees.

00:14:23   So there were far more Apple employees

00:14:25   than media and guests.

00:14:27   - Yeah, but look at this, look at the DeAnza College one.

00:14:33   I think that one had two or two thousand or more. Yeah, maybe. And there were a ton of invited

00:14:42   guests at that one. I remember that. A ton of them. Yeah. Yeah, you remember, yeah, we were,

00:14:46   I think you and I actually sat together during that one and there was just so many invited guests

00:14:53   at that one. So I think that's probably what they'll do here. I don't envision a time when

00:14:57   they'll ever not fill the theater for an event. Of course they're going to because they like

00:15:03   live stream and so you have to do that.

00:15:05   - Well, and it does, it creates a different vibe,

00:15:09   like, and I'll compare it directly to the ones

00:15:12   that were held in town hall, where town hall--

00:15:15   - I love town hall.

00:15:16   - I mean, I think I counted the one time,

00:15:18   I mean, there's, was it a, I don't know,

00:15:21   it was only like 100, 150 people tops?

00:15:24   That sounds about right?

00:15:26   - Yeah, there's, I think there's a couple hundred people

00:15:28   that fit in town hall.

00:15:29   Not, certainly no more than 200,

00:15:31   200 would be jam-packed. And so for those events, they--

00:15:36   and you could tell, because it became--

00:15:41   we have a lot of friends in the same racket.

00:15:43   And sometimes, for the town hall ones,

00:15:46   we knew people who didn't get invited,

00:15:48   because space was limited.

00:15:52   And so I don't think they wasted any seats for Apple employees,

00:15:55   other than the core Apple employees who were going

00:15:59   to be there in the first few rows.

00:16:01   And you get a different vibe in that place, not just because it's smaller, but because

00:16:05   without the Apple employees, there's less applause.

00:16:12   In the events where there's, like at the De Anza College one or at the Bill Graham Civic

00:16:21   Auditorium, the Apple employees at the proper points go nuts and applaud.

00:16:27   and the media, I mean, some people in the media clap,

00:16:29   but they're just more reserved, I mean, if only because,

00:16:34   I mean, partly because it's sort of a decorum of,

00:16:37   hey, we're supposed to be observers here.

00:16:40   We're not rooting for a sports team here.

00:16:42   We're covering this.

00:16:43   And part of it is because people are typing.

00:16:46   - Yeah, yeah, that's true, that's true.

00:16:48   I mean, you and I do our coverage pretty much the same.

00:16:55   Now I stopped doing live coverage of the events

00:16:59   because they stream it live.

00:17:02   So there's really not much point.

00:17:04   So I bring my Field Notes notebook and a pen

00:17:08   and I cover it like that.

00:17:09   And it's funny, Jason Snell said during,

00:17:13   I think it was one of the events that he spoke at

00:17:16   that the first person he ever saw do a live update

00:17:20   from an event was in like 2000 and it was me.

00:17:25   from an Apple keynote, we were doing live events then.

00:17:30   And now it just, it doesn't make any sense.

00:17:34   I would rather jot down my notes

00:17:36   to be able to write some thoughts a bit later.

00:17:38   - Yeah, the same way I am.

00:17:39   I'm too slow of a thinker, I couldn't,

00:17:41   and too slow of a typist.

00:17:43   I've never really attempted to blog the whole thing live.

00:17:46   I just can't, I really, I'm just, it's no joke.

00:17:50   I just can't type that fast.

00:17:51   And then what's the point?

00:17:52   I mean, I'll fire off some tweets, but that's about it.

00:17:55   - I used to get Peter Cohen to do it

00:17:59   because he was so much faster than I was.

00:18:01   And Peter could literally keep up with what they were saying

00:18:05   and I just, okay, you win.

00:18:07   - I remember back in the day,

00:18:08   I remember when just getting networking was an issue

00:18:13   and that some of the places, like the publications,

00:18:17   like in Gadget or somebody with a crew of people,

00:18:22   like somebody was responsible for bringing in the portable hotspot, you know, like one of the members

00:18:27   Yes, he used to be able to get for you'd pay like 50 bucks a month and you'd get like a 3g

00:18:31   wireless hotspot and it'd be hooked up to wires and power and

00:18:37   It was like you have it was a mess and then remember the one when?

00:18:41   So one of my all-time favorite keynote moments was when Steve Jobs interrupted the whole show because the Wi-Fi wasn't working

00:18:50   Right. Remember it was like a demo

00:18:52   The demo went but went south and then like five minutes later

00:18:56   it was like he had called somebody else up to do the next segment and he went backstage and

00:19:00   Obviously read somebody the riot act and said what the fuck is going on?

00:19:04   And they said look the problem is our why our Wi-Fi for the demo doesn't work because there's I don't know it was like

00:19:10   150

00:19:12   Networks and jobs comes out and goes totally off script and says hey listen

00:19:16   I just talked to my guys backstage and they say there's 200

00:19:20   Wireless networks in here and it's fucking up our demo. So I'm gonna tell you right now

00:19:23   Shut him shut him all off. We'll wait and he goes if you see

00:19:27   Somebody next to with one, you know make him shut it off

00:19:30   And it was so it was so it just was so exciting to be there because it's like this is well

00:19:38   He stood there. Yeah stood there and

00:19:40   Just wait. Yeah. Oh my god. It was classic, right?

00:19:46   And he was just totally unafraid to go off the affable Steve,

00:19:51   the I'm so happy to be here

00:19:54   and so glad to share this with you, Steve, and went to,

00:19:57   I'm pissed off, Steve, and I'm gonna get what I want.

00:20:00   (laughs)

00:20:00   It was so fucking great.

00:20:02   - I will stand here and stare at you, 5,000 people.

00:20:05   - And I felt nervous. - Until you turn around.

00:20:07   - My palms got sweaty and I didn't have a network set up.

00:20:10   I wasn't part of the problem, right?

00:20:13   I'm literally there with a paper notebook and a pen.

00:20:17   (laughing)

00:20:18   And I felt bad.

00:20:19   - You feel like you should close up your notebook.

00:20:22   - Maybe I should just get up and leave.

00:20:25   I should leave.

00:20:26   (laughing)

00:20:28   This is terrible.

00:20:29   I feel terrible. - You scared me, Steve.

00:20:32   (laughing)

00:20:34   - Man, that was great.

00:20:36   All right, let me just, before we get started

00:20:38   on what we actually think we are going to see,

00:20:40   let me interrupt the show here.

00:20:42   with a word from one of our good friends.

00:20:45   It's our good friends at Warby Parker.

00:20:48   Look, glasses should not cost as much as an iPhone.

00:20:50   A lot of prescription glasses, you go out there,

00:20:54   and they really do, you know, five, $600,

00:20:56   and then there's, you know, to get like the UV coating

00:20:59   on the lenses or the anti-glare coating,

00:21:01   it's another $100.

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00:21:08   and that includes the prescription lenses,

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00:21:16   and you get a good pair of prescription glasses.

00:21:19   And you buy 'em online, you don't have to go to a store,

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00:21:23   Now how does that work?

00:21:24   How do you buy something as personal as a pair of glasses?

00:21:28   I mean, really, what's more personal than your glasses?

00:21:30   They go right on your face.

00:21:31   They really directly affect what you look like.

00:21:32   Well, here's the deal, they have a try-on program.

00:21:35   You go to the website, you pick up to five pairs

00:21:38   that you think look good.

00:21:39   they send them to you with dummy lenses in for free.

00:21:43   And then you've got all five glasses at home,

00:21:45   try them on, look in the mirror,

00:21:47   ask the people you live with which ones they like.

00:21:49   And if you wanna buy one or more, you buy them.

00:21:53   You don't wanna buy any of them, you don't buy any of them.

00:21:56   But then you just put those five back in a box

00:21:58   that they give you with the label on it already,

00:22:00   send it right back to them.

00:22:01   So you send the demos back to them

00:22:03   and like a week or so later,

00:22:05   you get the glasses that you ordered.

00:22:07   And the demo thing, it's completely free.

00:22:09   So if you get five glasses, try them on,

00:22:11   you don't like any of them, you send them back.

00:22:14   All year out is the time it takes you

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00:22:37   I've got a pair that I ordered from them

00:22:39   when they first started, you know,

00:22:41   'cause that's what we do, you know,

00:22:42   it's like I got a Casper mattress up there.

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00:22:51   They've got an app in the App Store,

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00:23:22   Imagine how bad that would be if you had vision

00:23:24   and needed corrected lenses and lived somewhere

00:23:26   and you couldn't afford to get them.

00:23:28   That'd be terrible.

00:23:30   So they're helping to address that.

00:23:31   So my thanks to Warby Parker.

00:23:33   to warbyparker.com/thetalkshow. They use the "the" in the code warbyparker.com/thetalkshow.

00:23:40   And that'll be great. My thanks to Warby Parker.

00:23:45   Pete: You know what? They have a storefront in Palo Alto. I was gonna go in there because I need

00:23:54   a new pair of glasses. I don't know why, but I go through glasses like crazy. My rim's always

00:24:03   mess up so well there you go i don't sit on them or anything we we have a uh a boutique here in uh

00:24:09   center city philadelphia as well just uh not that easy walking distance for me and i've actually

00:24:15   gone there to get a pair of glasses uh so if you you know check check their site maybe you live

00:24:20   near one too it's funny though when you buy them from the the retail store it's literally you just

00:24:26   they just have you know they have sales people they just go to the website and it's literally

00:24:30   the same ordering process. It still goes through the website and they ship them right to your

00:24:34   house. Oh, I didn't know that. Yeah, it's just a it's just an easier way. You know,

00:24:39   the retail, the whole retail angle on it is just so that you can try on as many glasses

00:24:43   as you like right there in person. How about that? Pretty neat.

00:24:47   All right, let's talk about next week's event. What do we expect? So what do we know?

00:24:53   We know well, or we think we know that there's going to be three new iPhones and updated, right?

00:24:59   4.7, you know, I don't think they're going to call it the 7S, but something equivalent to what you

00:25:06   would think the iPhone 7S is something a 5.5 inch, which would be equivalent to the 7S plus,

00:25:12   using the same type of screen, same size screens as the 7 and 7 Plus today, and a new, a new iPhone

00:25:19   at a higher end, higher price point. And, you know, whatever code name D 22 with the OLED screen

00:25:26   that goes edge to edge and has a notch at the top

00:25:29   for the camera sensors and stuff like that.

00:25:31   We know that.

00:25:34   We don't know what they're gonna call any of these phones.

00:25:37   Right?

00:25:38   We don't know what they're gonna cost.

00:25:41   We don't know when they're gonna ship.

00:25:44   (laughs)

00:25:46   - Like I said, there's a lot to be worked out still.

00:25:51   - So, I mean, just sticking to iPhone.

00:25:53   And I think we can get to Apple TV and Apple Watch

00:25:56   and HomePod and other things that might come up in this event later.

00:25:59   But just sticking to iPhone, man, we don't know a lot.

00:26:04   And so everybody's focused on the OLED screen in the new high-end one, and that certainly

00:26:09   is going to be different and interesting.

00:26:13   But nothing else about that device has leaked, to my knowledge, really, other than this story

00:26:19   that it supposedly doesn't have Touch ID, either through deliberate design choice or

00:26:25   or because they couldn't figure out how to,

00:26:27   and there's a Wall Street Journal story

00:26:29   from like two days ago that I will put in the show notes

00:26:32   that suggests according to their sources that Apple tried

00:26:35   and at some point this summer gave up

00:26:38   on getting a touch ID sensor integrated into the screen

00:26:41   and so it doesn't have it.

00:26:42   But we don't know anything about the camera.

00:26:45   We don't know if it's gonna be,

00:26:46   is it gonna be like use it faster chips

00:26:48   than the 7S and 7S Plus, which I'll just use those names.

00:26:53   I really don't think they're gonna call it that,

00:26:54   but just as a shorthand.

00:26:55   - Well, the big thing, I think, coming for this one,

00:27:02   besides the obvious design change and edge-to-edge screen,

00:27:06   will be the biometrics, the face recognition.

00:27:10   That's gonna be the big thing for me.

00:27:12   And we've talked about all of this before,

00:27:15   about whether it will work in all circumstances,

00:27:18   like Touch ID does, because I've become so used

00:27:23   using touch id for payments for you know just looking at my my phone and you know you just

00:27:32   kind of put your thumb on it and it unlocks and everything is so quick and that's what we expect

00:27:37   from this facial recognition too but you have to think that if apple is releasing it it works

00:27:45   really well right but but you know we're we're gonna try it in so many different situations i

00:27:51   I mean, I love going to concerts and when I go to concerts, I love to take pictures.

00:27:56   So if I pull out my phone and there's flashing lights and everything at a concert, because

00:28:01   let's face it, I'm not at a jazz concert most of the time, I'm at a metal show.

00:28:06   So there's lights going and everything else and it has to recognize me and unlock, you

00:28:11   know, in split seconds the same way that my finger would.

00:28:16   If it tells me that I have to use my code, well, that's a huge step backward.

00:28:20   This is, to me, part of the excitement of the event,

00:28:25   is the, you know, how good is,

00:28:29   if it's true that it doesn't have touch ID,

00:28:31   or I guess, even if these reports are wrong

00:28:35   and they do have touch ID, but it's in the screen

00:28:38   and therefore a different type of sensor,

00:28:40   you know, how does it work as well

00:28:43   as the existing touch ID sensors?

00:28:45   But if it doesn't have touch ID,

00:28:47   how does this facial ID thing work?

00:28:51   We don't even know, I mean, honestly, we don't.

00:28:52   I mean, one thing that I think is almost certain,

00:28:56   and it seems backed up by reports about the sensors

00:28:58   and stuff, that it's not a camera.

00:29:00   Like, and this is the thing for people,

00:29:02   like there's a lot of people who when they see these stories

00:29:04   like either tweet at me or email me and they're like,

00:29:06   I, you know, they think Apple's jumped the shark,

00:29:08   this is gonna be a disaster,

00:29:10   they don't wanna be taking a selfie

00:29:12   every time they unlock the phone.

00:29:14   There's no way that it works like that.

00:29:15   and there's no way that it would require the light.

00:29:17   I mean, it has to work, for example,

00:29:19   when you wake up in the middle of the night

00:29:21   or in the morning when it's still dark, right?

00:29:23   You can't have a phone that you, you know,

00:29:25   that you have to use a six-digit passcode

00:29:28   just because you're in the dark.

00:29:30   That's ridiculous.

00:29:31   I mean, that would be absurd.

00:29:32   But, you know, how reliable is it?

00:29:34   Is it like, does it only work nine times out of 10?

00:29:37   'Cause like nine times out of 10 sounds good,

00:29:39   and if it was like a science project or a student project,

00:29:41   you'd be like, wow, a facial recognition system

00:29:43   that works nine times out of 10, that's great.

00:29:45   But Touch ID works 999 times out of 1,000.

00:29:50   I mean, it's really rare when Touch ID doesn't work.

00:29:55   And it's almost, for me, it's almost,

00:29:57   I mean, I know that there are people who,

00:30:01   for whatever reason, their skin is different

00:30:03   or their fingerprints are, I don't know,

00:30:05   too thin or something.

00:30:06   I know that there are some people

00:30:07   who Touch ID doesn't work great for,

00:30:08   but for me, it always works.

00:30:11   And the only times it doesn't is if,

00:30:13   and I know exactly why, like my hands are soaking wet.

00:30:15   If my hands are, it's raining and my hands are soaking wet,

00:30:18   it doesn't work.

00:30:19   Well I know, I just dry my thumb and then it'll work,

00:30:21   and then it does.

00:30:23   Like the facial, if they replace Touch ID

00:30:25   with a facial ID, it has to be as reliable or better.

00:30:29   Every, in every way, as fast, as secure,

00:30:31   as trustworthy, as reliable,

00:30:34   and nine times out of 10 isn't good enough.

00:30:36   If one time out of 10 when you try to unlock your phone,

00:30:39   it doesn't unlock, that sucks.

00:30:41   It'll make you, it'll make you furious,

00:30:42   'cause we're used to, we're already used to it working,

00:30:45   you know, as well as Touch ID.

00:30:47   - And this is what makes these type of events

00:30:52   so difficult for Apple, because they know all this,

00:30:56   you know, they know that if this,

00:31:00   the new facial recognition screws up

00:31:03   and they don't have Touch ID in there,

00:31:05   then, you know, they're gonna get hammered and they will.

00:31:09   I mean, there's already people that are just waiting

00:31:12   to write that story, that it failed.

00:31:16   The same way that they did when Touch ID came out.

00:31:19   Oh, well, you can cut off somebody's thumb

00:31:22   and have their fingerprint.

00:31:26   So you know that stuff is coming,

00:31:28   but I'm pretty confident that it's gonna work.

00:31:32   I'm hopeful and confident.

00:31:34   - I saw a video, I saw a video,

00:31:35   just like the Samsung Galaxy Note 8 just shipped,

00:31:39   not the Galaxy S8, which shipped six months ago,

00:31:42   but the Note 8 shipped and it has a facial ID for unlocking.

00:31:46   But it does seem to be-- - Was it on fire?

00:31:48   - No, but it is camera-based, and so I saw a demo,

00:31:51   like somebody was in the hands-on area from the event,

00:31:54   took a selfie on their phone and showed the selfie

00:31:58   to the S8 after having set up the facial ID

00:32:01   and it unlocked. (laughs)

00:32:04   So it was just pointing at the picture of himself

00:32:06   on the other phone, and Samsung does make it clear

00:32:09   from what I've been able to tell,

00:32:10   that when they unlock with the facial ID,

00:32:14   they tell you it's not as secure.

00:32:15   And you can't use it for things like payments.

00:32:19   It will unlock your phone, and then you

00:32:21   can go and launch apps and stuff like that.

00:32:23   But it won't let you do things that require the equivalent

00:32:27   of an administrator ID.

00:32:31   You know how sometimes you have to--

00:32:32   even the iPhone will make you put your passcode in

00:32:35   to install a software update or something like that.

00:32:39   or like when you upgrade to the switch to the betas,

00:32:43   when you install the, there's like a,

00:32:45   the way they do the iOS betas now

00:32:47   is you install a certificate,

00:32:51   and then that puts your iPhone on,

00:32:54   looking for the software updates from the beta server

00:32:56   instead of the release server.

00:32:58   Stuff like that, they don't let it do it.

00:33:02   But still, if Apple works like that,

00:33:04   that's embarrassing, really,

00:33:06   and I think they're gonna get called out on it.

00:33:08   And I think the reason it seems a little exciting,

00:33:10   there's a part of me that wants to say,

00:33:11   Apple wouldn't do this unless they knew

00:33:14   that the facial ID was gonna be good enough.

00:33:16   But there's a part of me that wants to argue

00:33:20   the counter way that I can see how they could

00:33:23   back themselves into a corner where maybe they had to,

00:33:27   or at least they felt like they had to ship that

00:33:30   even with a not quite as good as touch ID facial ID sensor,

00:33:34   meaning like they really thought they were gonna

00:33:36   pull it off and get touch ID under the screen.

00:33:39   And it got really late in the game, like early this summer,

00:33:44   and they concluded they couldn't, and they had to pull it,

00:33:47   but they also felt like we can't go another year

00:33:50   without an edge-to-edge OLED screen.

00:33:53   Our phones look dated compared to the highest end phones

00:33:58   from Samsung and LG because everybody else has these screens

00:34:02   with no forehead, no chin, or minimal forehead and chin.

00:34:05   and we need to forge ahead, touch ID be damned.

00:34:10   I could see how they maybe felt like they got backed

00:34:13   into a corner and I could see how like

00:34:15   when they made that decision,

00:34:17   you know, at the Monday morning executive meeting,

00:34:20   that there were probably people, if that's the case,

00:34:23   I could hypothetically see how that was

00:34:24   a contentious argument and there'd be people on both sides,

00:34:27   you know, one side arguing we need to scrap this

00:34:30   and wait another year or release it six months later,

00:34:33   do whatever it takes to get it good enough.

00:34:35   And other side saying,

00:34:38   "We can't launch in September without this phone."

00:34:40   - So do you think that this was the same type of pressure

00:34:43   they felt to build a bigger phone?

00:34:44   - I don't think it's quite as big a deal as that.

00:34:47   'Cause I feel like the bigger phone,

00:34:50   the bigger phones thing turned out

00:34:52   to be a mass market phenomenon, right?

00:34:54   Like just normal people, non-phone enthusiasts.

00:34:59   And here's how I would describe a normal phone consumer.

00:35:03   I just saw a poll the other day.

00:35:07   I got an email from SurveyMonkey

00:35:09   with a poll that they had conducted recently

00:35:14   about people's phone expectations.

00:35:17   How many, what percentage of 1,000 people

00:35:19   are excited about the new iPhone?

00:35:21   What percent think they're gonna buy it or whatever?

00:35:23   And one of the questions they asked is,

00:35:24   how often do you replace your phone?

00:35:26   And the most popular answer with like,

00:35:29   and I don't know, there's some people said every year,

00:35:32   some people said every two years,

00:35:33   some people said three or more years.

00:35:34   But the most popular answer was,

00:35:36   I only replace my phone when my old one breaks.

00:35:39   It was like 38%.

00:35:41   That's what I would call a normal person.

00:35:42   That's how most people I know in my family,

00:35:45   they end up replacing it every three, four, five years anyway

00:35:51   'cause that's how long it takes for phones to break.

00:35:53   But they just don't, if their phone works perfectly,

00:35:56   they're not even thinking about getting a new phone.

00:35:59   I mean, that's how I am with cars, for example.

00:36:01   But when you and I look at, and I--

00:36:05   - Before we get off that, I just,

00:36:07   I think that there were normal people

00:36:08   like that type of people who wanted big 5.5-inch phones.

00:36:12   They just, that seems great to me.

00:36:15   So I don't think that's true for this edge-to-edge trend.

00:36:17   I think it's people like us who are really enthusiasts

00:36:20   who really think about every single little design detail

00:36:24   of the phones who are into the minimization

00:36:27   of the chin and forehead.

00:36:28   - I caution people all the time,

00:36:30   and the people that are in the industry,

00:36:32   that you can't think about these types of things

00:36:39   only the way that we do.

00:36:41   You have to think about this the way that a consumer does.

00:36:43   And a consumer, excuse me, doesn't care as much as,

00:36:48   typically doesn't care as much as you and I may

00:36:52   about an iPhone.

00:36:53   The same way that if you and I were doing TV blogs,

00:37:00   would we care as much about iPhones?

00:37:04   Probably not.

00:37:05   I could care less about TVs.

00:37:07   If I need a new TV, I'm gonna go down to Best Buy

00:37:11   or whatever it is, and I'm gonna buy a new TV.

00:37:14   And I'm gonna buy whatever I can afford to get

00:37:17   and the best one that I can get.

00:37:20   And I'm gonna be happy with that.

00:37:21   - I'm in between.

00:37:27   I haven't bought a new TV in maybe like 10 years.

00:37:30   But I love my TV.

00:37:33   It's a Pioneer Plasma and I just love it to death.

00:37:35   It's just one of my favorite things

00:37:38   I've ever purchased in my life

00:37:39   because I just love the picture quality.

00:37:41   But I researched the hell out of it

00:37:42   when I needed to get it 10 years ago.

00:37:45   And I knew exactly, out of all the TVs in the market,

00:37:48   I had narrowed it down.

00:37:49   I know exactly I want this model from Pioneer at this size.

00:37:55   And it was like three times,

00:37:57   at least three times more expensive

00:37:58   than like just the typical whatever size.

00:38:01   I think it's like 55 inches.

00:38:02   But once I got it, and I'm,

00:38:07   we're not like a big put a TV in every room family.

00:38:11   Like I've never had a TV in my bedroom.

00:38:13   I just, I don't watch TV in bed.

00:38:15   So we just have one main TV.

00:38:17   Jonas has a second TV that he has hooked up for video games.

00:38:20   But I wanted to research the hell out of it

00:38:25   and get a really good TV.

00:38:26   And then I just tuned out of the entire--

00:38:28   I haven't looked.

00:38:29   I haven't shopped for a TV.

00:38:30   I have no idea.

00:38:31   I have no idea what's out there.

00:38:35   I mean, things like TVs, refrigerators, all the--

00:38:41   I don't go to refrigerator blogs and look for what's

00:38:51   coming out in a month.

00:38:52   Should I wait a month to buy this fridge?

00:38:53   Or should--

00:38:54   You know, it just, and I think,

00:38:57   for the majority of consumers,

00:39:00   that's how they feel about an iPhone.

00:39:02   That's why Apple will continue to sell iPhones

00:39:05   up until the time the new ones come out.

00:39:08   Because people, their phone breaks and they go.

00:39:11   - Let's play what if.

00:39:12   What if early this summer, Apple had figured out

00:39:16   there's no way that we can integrate a touch ID

00:39:19   under the screen like we thought we could

00:39:21   in time to launch it September.

00:39:24   What if they had instead of what they've seemingly done,

00:39:28   what if they had said, okay, so that phone,

00:39:30   we're gonna have to punt and either push it back six months

00:39:33   and do like a off cycle thing

00:39:36   like when they shipped the iPhone SE

00:39:38   or punted a full year to next September.

00:39:42   And this event comes Monday or Tuesday

00:39:45   and everybody in the press is still thinking,

00:39:48   you know, I guess if they had done that,

00:39:51   it would have leaked that Apple isn't shipping that phone.

00:39:53   It's like they would have set the expectation.

00:39:56   They wouldn't let everybody file into the room

00:39:58   thinking there's gonna be an iPhone Pro

00:40:01   and those other two phones.

00:40:02   They'd somehow set that expectation before the event.

00:40:05   But like-- - I think they'd have to.

00:40:06   - Right, but when that leaked, when the leak comes out,

00:40:09   like a Wall Street Journal story in mid-July comes out

00:40:13   that says Apple, unlike the rumors that have been to date,

00:40:16   they're actually only going to ship two new iPhones

00:40:19   in September updates to the 4.7-inch

00:40:21   5.5 inch LCD iPhones 7s.

00:40:28   When that came out, they would have taken a huge hit.

00:40:31   But it would have been a huge hit to me in, I think, in our crowd.

00:40:37   The tech enthusiast crowd would have excoriated them for this.

00:40:41   It might have hurt the stock price because business, you know, investor types are sort

00:40:46   of, they don't really geek out on the details, but they certainly geek out on the idea of

00:40:50   like a $1200 iPhone that they think might sell well. But I don't think it would have

00:40:56   really registered among normal people. And I know that there's a lot of people who disagree.

00:41:04   There's a lot of people who think that there's enough people out there who really are—I

00:41:12   mean it's the whole argument of how much does the iPhone 7 resemble the two-year older

00:41:16   than the iPhone 7, the 6.

00:41:19   Right, that the 6, the 6s, and the 7

00:41:21   became three generations that mostly,

00:41:23   and certainly when you put them in a case, look the same.

00:41:26   And there are differences.

00:41:30   Really, the iPhone 7 is not the same exact design.

00:41:34   You can't put it in the same case.

00:41:35   The cameras are very different.

00:41:37   There's a different cutout.

00:41:38   There is no cutout for the volume buttons

00:41:40   like there was on the 6 and 6s.

00:41:42   But those differences are subtle.

00:41:44   I know there's a lot of people who think

00:41:46   that that's hurt Apple sales that they think in the world.

00:41:50   I really just don't think it's true.

00:41:52   I mean, I think it's a measurable number of people

00:41:54   who want something that looks excitingly new.

00:41:57   But I just, and I think that the strength

00:41:59   of the iPhone 7 sales really backs that up.

00:42:02   The 6 sold extremely well and everybody knew it was

00:42:05   because there was pent up demand for a big iPhone.

00:42:08   The 6s, the Plus actually disappointed.

00:42:11   I mean, the Apples came out on conference calls

00:42:14   and even said that the 6S Plus sold less than they thought it would. And then last year,

00:42:18   the 7 Plus was backordered for weeks and they came out and said, "Yeah, it was way stronger

00:42:24   demand than we thought." I think personally because of the camera, because I think that

00:42:29   you tell even just normal people, this thing has two cameras and it helps you take amazing

00:42:34   portrait photos. People totally get that and everybody I know who's a normal person, their

00:42:40   their only camera these days is their phone.

00:42:43   So a better phone.

00:42:44   You say this is a much better camera on this phone.

00:42:47   To them it's like sold, get me one of those.

00:42:52   And that's why I think the 7 sold so surprisingly,

00:42:55   or at least better, more than Apple even expected last year.

00:42:59   And I think that the fact that the 7 sold so well

00:43:02   puts the lie to the fact that the design

00:43:04   has to change to keep people interested.

00:43:07   I think it has to change to keep us interested,

00:43:10   meaning the tech media, people who write about this

00:43:13   every day, but are our crowds, to me up to my mind,

00:43:18   a very short attention span?

00:43:21   - Well, you know, probably better than the most,

00:43:26   the worst thing that you can do is change designs

00:43:30   for the sake of change.

00:43:31   - Yes, I totally agree with that.

00:43:33   - You have something that works, you go with it.

00:43:36   I mean, you don't go overboard,

00:43:39   But look at car companies like Toyota.

00:43:42   Toyota has a great brand.

00:43:44   Their cars are known for working well for many, many years.

00:43:49   And their designs basically stay the same for years on end.

00:43:53   And then they'll do it as a change.

00:43:55   And those designs will stay the same.

00:43:57   So getting back to your original question,

00:44:01   what would you write?

00:44:05   Come Monday afternoon, the event is over

00:44:08   and Apple does not release an edge to edge phone

00:44:11   and they release an iPhone 7S Plus and 7S.

00:44:16   Will you write that, what a disappointing event?

00:44:19   - I would take, I would not,

00:44:21   and I would try to do what I usually do

00:44:26   and try to assess just how much better

00:44:28   those two new phones are and take them for what they are.

00:44:32   I would be curious, if that happened next week,

00:44:35   my curiosity wouldn't be that Apple fucked up.

00:44:38   It wouldn't be that this is a disaster, they're doomed or whatever.

00:44:42   But it would be curious to me that they didn't set the expectation in advance of the event

00:44:46   that it wasn't going to happen.

00:44:48   So to me the more plausible what-if scenario would be what if that had already leaked about

00:44:54   a month ago.

00:44:56   And in that case, I'd be a little disappointed because I'm excited to see the new phone,

00:45:01   but I totally understand that that's what happens when you make a new product.

00:45:05   And that's what happens when you have your foot

00:45:07   all the way down on the gas pedal in terms of,

00:45:10   let's get the most advanced technology

00:45:12   into this phone that we possibly can.

00:45:14   Let's be as aggressive as we can about shipping

00:45:18   what we think is the next generation of technology.

00:45:20   You know, if you're not running into production problems,

00:45:24   you're not pressing hard enough.

00:45:25   - No, I don't disagree at all.

00:45:27   - Steven Sinofsky even tweeted that the other day,

00:45:30   the guy who used formerly at Microsoft.

00:45:32   and now is a big iPad proponent.

00:45:35   But he linked to that Wall Street Journal story

00:45:40   about the production hitches in summer

00:45:42   and said that's, without knowing any details

00:45:45   of this in particular, that's what product development

00:45:48   is like if you're being aggressive.

00:45:50   Like if you're not hitting production problems,

00:45:52   you're not pressing hard enough.

00:45:54   - Yep, and they'll overcome those.

00:45:57   You know, it's not an insurmountable problem for them,

00:46:01   but it's a problem right now.

00:46:02   - Well, and that's the problem is that to overcome them,

00:46:05   it takes time, and that's the one thing

00:46:08   that people in the media don't want to grant Apple is time.

00:46:12   Like, all right, let me take another break here

00:46:18   and we'll get back and talk more iPhone,

00:46:19   but I want to thank our next sponsor,

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00:47:48   of the talk show.

00:47:49   So what do you think they're gonna call the new iPhones?

00:47:52   I'm gonna go, I'm betting that all three are coming, right?

00:47:56   I mean, that seems like about as close to certain as possible.

00:47:58   - So they could go with the,

00:48:02   continuing on with what they've done,

00:48:04   the 7S and 7S Plus,

00:48:08   and then do just the iPhone 8,

00:48:11   which is the big edge to edge,

00:48:13   you know, it's the beautiful one.

00:48:15   Or they could make them all iPhone 8s

00:48:18   and do an iPhone 8 Pro, premium edition,

00:48:22   you know, one of those names.

00:48:26   But I give it a 50/50 chance either way.

00:48:31   - I don't think there's any chance

00:48:33   they're gonna call those 7S and 7S Plus

00:48:36   because by all accounts, they're coming in

00:48:39   at the same price points as the existing 7 and 7 Plus.

00:48:43   It's not like an iPhone 5C where, yes, it's a new phone,

00:48:47   but it's a new phone that we're targeting

00:48:50   at like the mid-price tier.

00:48:52   So if it's supposed to sell at the existing prices,

00:48:56   I think it makes them look bad to call them sevens

00:49:00   and call this other one eight.

00:49:02   It's like, it makes it sound like they're a year behind.

00:49:06   Like I think, and this is to me the most intriguing part

00:49:09   of the whole event next week is how are they going

00:49:11   to product marketing-wise position these three phones

00:49:15   such that the first two look like the iPhones we would

00:49:20   expect in any typical year, like the best phones

00:49:23   on the market from the company with the best eye for design.

00:49:27   And here's this new thing at a higher tier, right?

00:49:31   And I think calling the first two 7S

00:49:35   and calling the other one 8, it says the opposite.

00:49:38   It says these two are year-old technology,

00:49:41   even though they're coming out right now.

00:49:42   It would make sense to me if the rumor were

00:49:44   that the 7S and 7S Plus were going to be introduced

00:49:48   at like $150 lower price than they currently sell.

00:49:51   That would make sense to me,

00:49:52   if they were sort of like the new version of the iPhone 5C.

00:49:56   But that by all accounts, that's not what they're doing.

00:49:58   They're introducing two new phones

00:50:00   that are what we would expect from Apple on a typical year,

00:50:03   which is, you know, and in my opinion,

00:50:05   I've said this many times,

00:50:06   I think that dollar for dollar,

00:50:09   the S models of all iPhones

00:50:11   have been better than the non S models.

00:50:14   The 3GS was way, maybe it was one of the most

00:50:19   biggest updates in iPhone history,

00:50:23   even though it looked exactly like the iPhone 3G.

00:50:25   It was, the speed difference was tremendous.

00:50:27   The iPhone 3G was barely an improvement

00:50:29   over the original iPhone.

00:50:30   The only significant, I think it added GPS, I don't know.

00:50:33   But the main thing was that it went

00:50:35   from edge networking to 3G,

00:50:36   which was obviously a nice improvement.

00:50:39   But everything else, like the camera stayed the same,

00:50:41   the CPU stayed the same, the graphics stayed the same,

00:50:44   The screen stayed the same.

00:50:46   The 3GS was a huge update over the 3G.

00:50:48   The 4S was a huge update over the iPhone 4, right?

00:50:52   The 5S was the one that introduced Touch ID.

00:50:55   I just think that the S models get underestimated

00:51:00   by reviewers just because they look the same.

00:51:05   They just look at it without even using it or testing it

00:51:08   or measuring the speed or trying the camera or whatever.

00:51:11   They're just like, well, it looks the same, meh.

00:51:14   - Well, you know what we should do right now

00:51:16   to just end all this is conference in Schiller.

00:51:20   (laughing)

00:51:21   Just, let's just conference in Schiller and we'll ask him.

00:51:24   Hey, Phil.

00:51:25   - Sure, he'd be happy to talk to us.

00:51:28   And I'm sure he's not busy at all on a Friday before--

00:51:31   - No, I'm sure, I'm sure he's not busy.

00:51:34   - He's probably taking a nap.

00:51:36   - Okay, so you're going with--

00:51:37   - I think it's either going to be iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus,

00:51:41   an iPhone 8 Pro, or they drop the numbers

00:51:45   and just say this is the new iPhone,

00:51:47   this is the new iPhone Plus,

00:51:48   and this is the brand new iPhone Pro.

00:51:51   Like, which is sort of what, which is not even sort of,

00:51:53   that's exactly what they've done with the iPad lineup.

00:51:56   - Yeah, and you know what, to be honest,

00:51:59   I would like that option the best.

00:52:00   - 'Cause at some point the numbers start to get silly,

00:52:05   right, it's like, you know, they could do,

00:52:08   I don't think it would be ridiculous for them,

00:52:11   I don't think it would be unusual or even the least bit

00:52:13   surprising if the iPhone 8 thing is what turns out.

00:52:16   iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, iPhone 8 Pro.

00:52:19   I could totally see them doing it.

00:52:20   But at some point, you know, like what?

00:52:22   You're going to have an iPhone 13?

00:52:24   You know?

00:52:26   Yeah, and at what point does that get weird?

00:52:28   At some point, they have to drop the numbers, I think.

00:52:30   And so why not now when they're introducing this new Pro model?

00:52:35   And I do think they're going to call it Pro.

00:52:37   And I could be wrong.

00:52:41   I mean, this is the sort of thing

00:52:42   that I think that they have kept under complete lock and key.

00:52:46   And as you, you know, names and price,

00:52:49   product names and prices are like the things

00:52:52   that are least likely to leak from Apple.

00:52:55   In years past, there were sometimes like prices would leak

00:52:58   because it would somehow like prematurely hit

00:53:01   the retail channel and somebody in an Apple store

00:53:05   would, you know, get like an update

00:53:07   and just some regular person working in an Apple store is like, "Whoa, here's these new

00:53:12   product names and prices," and then email it to 9to5Mac or something. But that hasn't

00:53:20   happened in years. And they've just--I mean, even the name, even going back 10 years, the

00:53:25   original iPhone name did not leak. Remember, there was all this--everybody speculated,

00:53:30   because at the time when Apple was just putting "i" in front of every name, iPhone was the

00:53:35   the rumored name for Apple's secret phone project.

00:53:39   But remember when Steve--

00:53:39   - And they didn't even own it.

00:53:40   - No, and everybody's like, they can't use it

00:53:42   'cause Cisco owns it, or I think it was Cisco.

00:53:45   And so it was actually a great moment in the keynote

00:53:48   and when Jobs says, and we're gonna call it iPhone,

00:53:52   and then the name iPhone, I remember it was like

00:53:54   the drop effect and dust came up from the ground and keynote.

00:53:58   And he goes, yeah, that's what we're calling it.

00:54:01   Like he knew, like he was addressing the whole,

00:54:03   hey, they can't call it iPhone

00:54:05   Cisco owns a trademark on the name iPhone,

00:54:07   and he was just like, fuck it, we're calling it iPhone.

00:54:09   (laughing)

00:54:11   So names don't leak.

00:54:12   So I have absolutely zero inside, no little birdies,

00:54:17   no friends of a birdie, no, my cousin has a friend

00:54:21   who's married to someone at Apple who told me

00:54:23   that they're gonna call it this.

00:54:24   I have nothing, nobody's told me a damn thing.

00:54:26   I just think they're gonna call it Pro

00:54:27   because that's what they call the higher end models.

00:54:31   That's what they call the MacBook Pro,

00:54:32   it's what they call the iPad Pro.

00:54:33   - Yeah, I agree.

00:54:34   I mean, it just, it makes sense.

00:54:37   Makes sense.

00:54:38   Now the only question is, will they drop the number?

00:54:41   - Yeah, those are my two guesses.

00:54:43   I don't know.

00:54:45   That's what I feel 50/50 on.

00:54:47   But I also feel like giving, if they call them all eight,

00:54:50   or if they drop the number on all of them

00:54:52   and just go iPhone, iPhone Plus, iPhone Pro,

00:54:56   it elevates those to the 4.7 and the 5.5 inch phones

00:55:01   to be peers with this new phone,

00:55:03   as opposed to, you know, it's a way to position them

00:55:06   such that they don't look unappealing

00:55:08   even though they're not the highest end models.

00:55:10   - Yes.

00:55:11   Yeah, it's important, I mean,

00:55:15   you said it a few minutes ago perfectly,

00:55:18   they have to have tiers,

00:55:20   but they can't make one seem inferior

00:55:23   while having tiers. - Right.

00:55:24   - And you know, this is where the show comes in.

00:55:30   This is his expertise.

00:55:31   - It really is.

00:55:32   - He has to market this so that somebody doesn't feel like,

00:55:36   oh, look at that, look at the iPhone I have to get.

00:55:40   They have to say, okay.

00:55:42   - I think that this is one of the hardest things

00:55:46   that Schiller and his team have had to do in Apple history.

00:55:49   - Yes.

00:55:50   - It's both, it's two things, too.

00:55:52   It's the original message, which is what they say

00:55:55   on stage in the keynote, to set the,

00:55:58   Here's our version of the story of these products

00:56:01   that we want to seed into the head of the public

00:56:05   who's watching all the millions of people

00:56:07   who watch these streams live and us, the media,

00:56:10   who are gonna be writing about them

00:56:11   to try to get us to see it the same way

00:56:15   they want us to see it.

00:56:17   And secondarily, which is totally different,

00:56:20   is the ad campaigns for these products,

00:56:22   is how do they come up with ad campaigns

00:56:24   that accomplish the same thing,

00:56:26   make the new regular iPhones seem desirable and new

00:56:30   and much improved and desirable,

00:56:33   and at the same time introduce this new pro model

00:56:37   at a higher price that doesn't diminish demand

00:56:39   for the existing tiered prices, tiered models.

00:56:44   It's a challenge, it really is.

00:56:47   So interesting to see how they do it.

00:56:50   Like, is it going to be like a totally separate ad campaign

00:56:53   for the pro as opposed to the regular iPhones

00:56:55   or do they do one ad campaign that includes them all?

00:56:58   I totally, I don't know.

00:57:01   - I don't think that they can.

00:57:02   I think that, you know, this pro is gonna be marketed

00:57:07   completely different than what the other ones are.

00:57:13   - I think so too. - I really do.

00:57:17   - It's gonna be, I think that's where a lot of the focus

00:57:20   is gonna be because people are gonna know about

00:57:24   the updated models, but this new one,

00:57:28   it's gonna be brand new and shiny

00:57:30   and it's gonna be spectacular

00:57:32   and they're gonna market the hell out of that.

00:57:35   - There's also been a rumor

00:57:37   and it seems like so much of the attention

00:57:39   is on the Pro, the D22-1.

00:57:41   I mean, not even seems like the attention

00:57:43   really is on that model.

00:57:45   And the so-called 7S and 7S+

00:57:48   are almost like afterthoughts in all the rumors.

00:57:51   And I think that's so curious and so indicative

00:57:54   of how small-minded the media is,

00:57:57   how narrowly focused it can be.

00:57:59   Because I would guess that we're getting updates

00:58:02   as good as the S updates we'd expect in a normal year.

00:58:06   - Absolutely. - Which is typically,

00:58:08   like I said, usually a bigger improvement

00:58:10   than the other way around.

00:58:11   Like it might be, I would expect that these two phones

00:58:14   are better than the 7, they're corresponding,

00:58:17   the 7 and 7 Plus, than the 7 was from the 6S

00:58:20   and the 6S Plus.

00:58:21   - I think I'm willing to bet that

00:58:25   if there is a hands-on area at this event on Tuesday,

00:58:28   that when we go in there,

00:58:31   there will be nobody at the 7S and 7S Plus table

00:58:35   and everybody will be at the 8 table.

00:58:37   - I remember that.

00:58:38   I remember the one event when they first came out with the,

00:58:41   I think it's still the current form factor

00:58:44   of the iPod Touch, the one that originally shipped

00:58:47   with an optional wrist lanyard.

00:58:49   I don't think they've changed the industrial design

00:58:53   since then other than getting rid of the thing

00:58:55   for the wrist lanyard, the little pop-out thing.

00:58:58   But I remember that event, the hands-on area,

00:59:02   I came out and I was with a friend of the show,

00:59:04   off-frequent guest, M.G. Siegler,

00:59:07   back when he was, I think he was writing

00:59:08   for TechCrunch at the time.

00:59:10   And it was like three or four deep around the iPhone.

00:59:14   It was either the 4 or the 4S, I think.

00:59:16   Maybe it was, I don't know, I think it was the iPhone 5.

00:59:18   It was the first year of the iPhone 5.

00:59:19   And the iPod touch table, there was literally nobody there.

00:59:23   So we just went there and it was so much more enjoyable.

00:59:26   Because, okay, it wasn't the product

00:59:28   I was most interested in, but it was,

00:59:31   we had the room, we could completely examine it.

00:59:33   We could talk to the people, the Apple people

00:59:36   who were there to answer our questions about it.

00:59:38   And meanwhile, everybody at the other one,

00:59:40   it was like a fight over Cabbage Patch dolls in 1985.

00:59:44   Yeah. And that's what it's like at every event. And there's nothing Apple can do. It's us.

00:59:52   It's not them. And it's not, we were talking earlier about their flow or any,

00:59:58   it's got nothing to do with that. It's just the way that the president-

01:00:01   Well, and one of the ways that the, if we, to stroll back down memory lane again, and the way

01:00:07   that, I mean, you've been going to events, like you said, since 1999. So you've got way more

01:00:12   years under your belt than me. I think I started getting press passes to Macworld around 2006

01:00:21   or so, maybe 2005, but 2006. So when I got to press pass for the iPhone 1 in January

01:00:27   2007, it was still one of the third or fourth event that I'd gotten a press pass for. But

01:00:35   just in the last 10 years, one of the ways that's changed absolutely, and it's just totally

01:00:39   changed the flow of these events is the obsession with shooting video and photographs. It just

01:00:45   wasn't a thing back then because, I mean, it's certainly for video. There was just no way to

01:00:50   get video online, you know, remotely. It was just too big. Bandwidth was too slow. Cameras were too

01:00:59   big. Now it's all video. It's video, video, video, video, and product shots. And I've said this

01:01:07   before, but it really changes the dynamic of the hands-on area is that once

01:01:11   somebody from these media outlets gets to, you know, now they can hold the new

01:01:16   iPhone, they have, it's like a team and they have a, you know, here's the person

01:01:21   who's gonna hold it and here's the photographer, but to get the shot they

01:01:25   want, they need space, you know, they don't just want to stick the camera right up

01:01:28   there, they want to put a longer lens on and it's, it really does get ugly, you

01:01:33   know, where they're, because they, if, you know, and if you're not really paying

01:01:36   attention if you're just trying to walk around. You might walk—there's enough space between

01:01:40   a photographer and a reporter that you could easily, inadvertently just walk in front of

01:01:44   them because it's crowded and there's hundreds of people there. And it really does change.

01:01:49   And then because it means that they need so much space around them that it's no longer

01:01:53   packed tables. It's people and they're pushing people. It's real ugly.

01:01:57   Ted

01:01:57   - Well, it is a weird situation, but you know,

01:02:01   I think for many of us that have been there

01:02:04   for a long time, like you said, we're just kinda,

01:02:07   you know, we're willing to hang out,

01:02:08   but some of these guys that get in there these days

01:02:11   are just, like they're going elbows up.

01:02:13   - Remember last year with the jet black iPhone,

01:02:16   that's the one everybody wanted to get pictures of,

01:02:20   but it's really hard to photograph.

01:02:22   Like it's, you know, for obvious reasons,

01:02:26   It's like, you know, like I had friends

01:02:29   who had a black pug, you know, the dog.

01:02:33   Just jet black hair with black eyes.

01:02:36   Adorable, adorable little dog.

01:02:39   The hardest damn thing to take a photo of,

01:02:41   there's just no way to get the light right.

01:02:44   Like your eyes can totally see this adorable pug face

01:02:47   and these adorable eyes looking at you,

01:02:49   and then your camera just sees like a black pillow.

01:02:53   And so people last year trying to set up shots

01:02:56   of the jet black iPhone, they'd take the shot

01:02:58   and then the photographer would chimp.

01:03:00   You ever hear that verb, chimping?

01:03:02   Chimping is when you have like a SLR, you take a picture,

01:03:06   and then you look at the screen to see if you got the shot.

01:03:09   And you're up to your eyes, take a shot, look at the screen,

01:03:12   just over and over and over again playing with the exposure

01:03:15   and trying to get it positioned in the light just so.

01:03:18   And it's like you're not in a photo studio here.

01:03:20   You're in a working press room with 250 members of the media

01:03:25   who all want the same phone, and meanwhile,

01:03:27   tilted a quarter of an inch this way,

01:03:29   catch the light, it was, ugh, it was maddening.

01:03:31   Let me think, what else?

01:03:32   What do you think the price is gonna start on the Pro model?

01:03:36   - Well, I mean, I think 1,000 to 1,200.

01:03:41   - I think 999 is their goal,

01:03:44   and it's probably as a starting price.

01:03:45   So that tricked out plus of iPhone 8 plus or whatever,

01:03:50   7S plus, whatever they're gonna call it,

01:03:52   the 5.5 inch one,

01:03:54   I would think would have the same prices last year,

01:03:56   $969 for the one with the most storage.

01:04:00   And then if that's the existing,

01:04:03   and that's the existing high price, 969,

01:04:06   then if the new one starts at 999,

01:04:08   it seems like it's a continuous flow of prices

01:04:11   from the whatever the lowest memory storage config

01:04:16   of the iPhone 7 is up to.

01:04:19   But I would guess that they'd have at least two tiers,

01:04:21   maybe like 64 gigs and 256 or something like that,

01:04:26   with $100 bump in between them, or maybe $200, I don't know.

01:04:32   I could totally see it going up to $1200.

01:04:35   - Yeah, so could I.

01:04:36   But people have been talking about this,

01:04:39   know the price of this thing like it's it's going to collapse the market and and it's not but I think

01:04:48   mentally we have a ceiling you know a thousand dollar price point and then things start to to

01:04:57   ramp up again you know so anything under a thousand dollars I think we're okay with but

01:05:03   once you say a thousand dollars then you're thinking oh my god thousand dollars that's a

01:05:08   That's a lot of money.

01:05:09   But $9.99, that's perfectly fine.

01:05:11   - The people who are upset about it

01:05:12   are the people who are enthusiasts

01:05:14   and like the idea that they have the best iPhone

01:05:19   they could buy and who also don't want to,

01:05:22   or either can't or won't pay over $1,000 for an iPhone.

01:05:27   So now they're torn because they always had

01:05:29   the best iPhone that money could buy

01:05:31   and they can't buy the new best iPhone that money can buy

01:05:35   or won't buy the new best iPhone that money can buy

01:05:38   And so those people are upset.

01:05:40   I mean, they've been vocal ever since rumors

01:05:43   of this started hitting, and they certainly were vocal

01:05:46   when I wrote about what the prices might be

01:05:49   earlier this summer.

01:05:51   And I understand it, they're not wrong, right?

01:05:53   If that's how you feel or if that's your budget.

01:05:55   I mean, but I think that they take it too far

01:05:58   when they say, I've also heard the argument

01:06:00   that they either won't or shouldn't call it the iPhone Pro,

01:06:05   emphasis on pro because you know with macbooks and even ipads that pro makes sense because they're

01:06:12   they're tools people use for work you know and that somebody who buys a macbook pro instead of a

01:06:16   macbook air or a regular macbook is doing so because they have professional needs for work

01:06:22   that require i don't agree with that i don't i a don't agree with it on the macbook pro and the

01:06:28   ipad pro especially the ipad pro although some people do use it as more of a professional tool

01:06:32   I also think that Apple has used the word pro to mean deluxe or

01:06:37   you know, yes better more expensive just

01:06:41   and when when you asked earlier what the names would be those are you know,

01:06:46   iPad edition because they've used that for the top of the line. So yeah pro is just to Apple

01:06:53   like you said it's to me it's a

01:06:57   - A docs model.

01:06:58   - And top of the line. - And secondarily though,

01:07:00   here's the other, the flip side of it.

01:07:01   So I don't think, and the ways they have used the word pro

01:07:04   in product names, it doesn't always necessarily mean

01:07:07   for professional use.

01:07:09   But in the flip side, I think that an iPhone

01:07:13   for professional use is, that's an actual thing.

01:07:17   That's part of the ways that the world has changed

01:07:19   since 10 years ago when the first iPhone came out

01:07:22   is that there are an awful lot of people I know

01:07:25   who their most used work computer is their phone.

01:07:29   Awful lot of people,

01:07:30   and either all the time or some of the time.

01:07:34   And I've said this before,

01:07:36   like Matthew Panzorino, who is the editor of TechCrunch,

01:07:39   and Nilay Patel at The Verge I've talked to,

01:07:42   both of them have said the same thing to me,

01:07:44   that there are days where if they're traveling or something,

01:07:48   their entire communication with their editorial staff

01:07:50   goes through their phone.

01:07:51   Those are publications where there are stories coming out

01:07:55   every hour throughout the day.

01:07:57   And as the people who run the publication,

01:08:00   they need to be in charge,

01:08:01   and they need to be in communication

01:08:03   with their staff all day.

01:08:04   Their phone is the only,

01:08:06   that's the number one device on some days for them

01:08:08   as a professional tool.

01:08:10   And what are the things that professionals need

01:08:14   out of their phone?

01:08:14   Well, one of them is battery life.

01:08:16   So like if this iPhone Pro,

01:08:18   because it has an OLED screen

01:08:20   and OLED takes less energy than LCD.

01:08:23   And if it's because of the new shape,

01:08:25   if they're able to put a bigger battery in there,

01:08:28   and if they can advertise that it has

01:08:30   significantly better battery life,

01:08:32   or at least as much battery life as the Plus,

01:08:37   but in a form factor that feels in your hand

01:08:39   closer to a regular iPhone,

01:08:40   that is a legitimate professional feature.

01:08:43   Like your phone going dead before the day is done

01:08:47   is a professional problem, it really is.

01:08:49   So, and secondarily, the camera.

01:08:51   If the camera is better, that's a professional.

01:08:54   That is a pro feature.

01:08:55   There are people who use their phones

01:08:57   to take pictures in a professional context.

01:08:59   Like, part of their job is taking pictures.

01:09:01   - I don't even give that whole pro thing any thought at all.

01:09:06   I just don't.

01:09:08   I just don't agree with it to the point

01:09:10   where I don't even think about it.

01:09:17   I can use my phone for a computer if I want.

01:09:21   I choose not to, but I can.

01:09:23   If they have something that's better,

01:09:28   better chips and better networking and better screen

01:09:32   and all of this kind of stuff,

01:09:34   the one big question that I have,

01:09:36   and I tweeted maybe about a week ago,

01:09:39   the only thing that I really want out of a new iPhone

01:09:41   is to be able to read it in the sun.

01:09:46   Will I be able to do that with this new screen?

01:09:48   I don't know, I hope so. - It'll be a good feature.

01:09:51   And it's funny, the people who think

01:09:53   that they can't call it pro is that

01:09:55   the pre-iPhone smartphone world,

01:09:58   like when they used to call them smartphones

01:09:59   and Blackberry was a thing, they were all professional.

01:10:02   The advertising campaigns for all of those things

01:10:07   were people in business suits.

01:10:09   And it was meant for people who work at a big corporate

01:10:15   with a quote enterprise IT division and stuff like that.

01:10:19   So I just think it's silly to think they wouldn't.

01:10:23   I also think, this is one of those things

01:10:26   that I wanted to touch on,

01:10:27   is among the things we don't know about this new phone

01:10:30   is we don't really know anything about the camera.

01:10:32   And the camera is a huge, it's probably the,

01:10:35   it's the centerpiece of the last two years

01:10:37   of iPhone advertising,

01:10:39   is the Shot with iPhone advertising campaign.

01:10:41   It's literally the number one thing

01:10:43   that Apple uses to advertise phones now.

01:10:46   I would presume that the 7S and 7S Plus will get

01:10:51   the sort of upgrades to their camera

01:10:53   that we're used to them getting every year,

01:10:55   which is significant.

01:10:57   It's one of those things that you really can

01:10:58   just take a year old iPhone and see the difference.

01:11:01   But I would think that the iPhone Pro

01:11:04   is gonna get an even better camera.

01:11:06   And I think it may not be about the lens and sensor,

01:11:09   I think it's about the depth sensor

01:11:12   it's rumored to have. That using an entirely different sensor for 3D depth perception,

01:11:21   combined with having two lenses and through the magic of software, could lead to a serious

01:11:30   like, "Oh my god, that's amazing. I can't believe that came out of a phone photography."

01:11:36   That would be very exciting to me.

01:11:38   I agree. I agree. And anything that they can do to help with photography and video and

01:11:47   you know, all of that is just going to help sales because that is a huge thing. And the

01:11:52   camera is one thing that's going to be huge for consumers and pros.

01:11:59   Yeah, I think there's a reason why there's so much and for so long they've been using

01:12:05   this shot with iPhone advertising campaign because I really think it works with regular

01:12:12   people.

01:12:13   Other names I've seen tossed about and I don't think they will use them.

01:12:17   Some people have suggested they would call this the new high end, highfalutin phone the

01:12:21   iPhone edition.

01:12:23   I don't think they would do.

01:12:24   I mean obviously they've used that name for Apple Watch twice, but I think the way they've

01:12:29   used it with Apple Watch, especially the first time with the gold ones, but even with the

01:12:35   ceramic one from last year, which is significantly lower in price and therefore far more approachable

01:12:40   than the gold ones were. The name edition, it says even, it's not just the judging the

01:12:49   products for themselves at $20,000 digital watches, but just the name edition, it was

01:12:56   meant to be sort of like an asterisk almost, like a footnote in the product line. This

01:13:03   This is something that is not going to sell in massive quantity.

01:13:08   And I don't think that's going to be—that's not going to be the case with the iPhone at

01:13:11   all.

01:13:12   You know, and it's—it may not be the best-selling one.

01:13:15   This may actually change the dynamics of the product mix.

01:13:21   But it's, you know, much like the iPad Pro, I think it's, you know—and I think the

01:13:26   iPad Pro is certainly not the best-selling iPad.

01:13:28   I think that the lower-priced ones, I think, you know, right now probably the best-selling

01:13:31   iPad has got to be that just plain iPad, you know, the one that starts at like $379.

01:13:37   But they certainly sell far more iPad Pros than they sell Apple Watch editions. Like,

01:13:45   edition just is too, it's too rarefied. And I don't think that's what their intent with

01:13:49   this phone is at all. No, well, there, this is not a rarefied iPhone. This is the future of

01:13:59   of the company right here.

01:14:01   So they have to position it as such.

01:14:05   Yes, it's gonna be, by all reports,

01:14:08   hard to get ahold of for a little bit,

01:14:10   but this is the future, this is the way the iPhone is going.

01:14:13   - Oh, what about the rumor that all three iPhones

01:14:16   are gonna have glass backs?

01:14:18   I feel like that's gotten remarkably little attention.

01:14:21   And the idea is that they need to,

01:14:23   because they're all going to support contact charging,

01:14:28   whatever you wanna call it.

01:14:29   - No, I hate that wireless charging,

01:14:30   but you put it on a little pad

01:14:33   and it'll just charge on the pad,

01:14:35   and that you can't do that with an aluminum back.

01:14:38   That to me would be, if that's true,

01:14:41   and I feel like it's really been under rumored,

01:14:44   especially on the lower two ones,

01:14:46   then there's no way they're gonna call them the 7S

01:14:48   and the 7S Plus, because they only use the S

01:14:51   when they literally look the same.

01:14:53   And obviously having a glass back would not look the same.

01:14:56   (laughing)

01:14:59   - Well, and that would be one of these features

01:15:04   that, like you said, they would change the name for.

01:15:08   Because here you go, this is significantly different

01:15:10   because we've updated the camera and we've got a glass back

01:15:14   so it does the contact charging,

01:15:16   and we've done all of these different things.

01:15:20   And you know, every year, the S editions always get,

01:15:24   you know, updated components inside.

01:15:25   So they're, like you said before, they're always faster

01:15:28   and they're better and everything else.

01:15:29   So that is just another reason why calling them all

01:15:34   iPhone 8s would make sense.

01:15:36   Because here you're getting all of this technology as well,

01:15:40   just in, you know.

01:15:42   - Yeah, and if they all have this glass back,

01:15:45   I can envision like some kind of photograph

01:15:48   that shows all three from behind

01:15:50   and makes them look like a family.

01:15:53   You know, from behind they would look like

01:15:55   they're all like, here's three amazing new iPhones,

01:15:57   not just one amazing new iPhone and two other ones

01:16:00   that you don't even care about, right?

01:16:02   And whereas from the front, you won't get that

01:16:06   because you'll have two that have this traditional chin

01:16:09   and forehead at the top and bottom and one that doesn't

01:16:12   and has this cutout around the screen that makes it look,

01:16:15   gives it a different silhouette as like a,

01:16:18   what it looks like when the screen is on.

01:16:20   From the front, it's definitely gonna look like

01:16:22   there's one phone that's not like the others,

01:16:24   But from the back, if they all have a glass design,

01:16:28   some kind of glass, that would be interesting.

01:16:30   I think that's interesting too though,

01:16:32   because they had glass backs and then moved away from it.

01:16:36   And then to go back to it would be interesting,

01:16:38   'cause that's not something Apple usually does.

01:16:40   When they change materials,

01:16:41   they usually just go in one order.

01:16:44   They had the titanium G4 power book,

01:16:47   and it was amazing and sort of, in my opinion,

01:16:51   is probably the most influential design Apple in the computer world, in the PC world, has

01:16:58   ever had. Because even today's MacBooks still, to me, seem like they're derived from that

01:17:03   G4 titanium. There's this progression. I mean, and it's obviously thicker, and the keyboard

01:17:11   was definitely way different. But it was just sort of like that's the look of the modern

01:17:16   an Apple notebook compared to all the black plastic ones

01:17:20   that came before it, right?

01:17:22   But anyway--

01:17:23   - Well, I think if they could've stayed with aluminum

01:17:26   or a different type of metal, they probably would've.

01:17:29   - When they switched from titanium to aluminum,

01:17:31   they didn't go back to titanium three years later, right?

01:17:34   There was a reason why they switched.

01:17:35   It was like, 'cause the titanium could flake off.

01:17:39   I think it was like painted or something.

01:17:42   It didn't wear that well.

01:17:43   And the breakthrough with aluminum

01:17:45   was when they got to,

01:17:47   they don't even talk about unibody anymore,

01:17:49   but the fact that they could make these,

01:17:52   their ability to drill out a solid block of aluminum

01:17:56   in one continuous shape, it was the breakthrough.

01:18:00   So it's interesting to me that they would go back to glass.

01:18:04   And I wonder if there's some part of this

01:18:06   because, that we're missing,

01:18:08   that it's not just glass like the iPhone 4 and 4S were,

01:18:11   that it's some other type of glass

01:18:13   or that there's some other aspect to the story

01:18:15   that we just, nobody even knows yet.

01:18:18   - Well, I'm sure that that will come up.

01:18:20   - Oh, I bet.

01:18:21   (laughing)

01:18:23   Let me think, anything else on the iPhone?

01:18:26   Got the camera, got the glass back.

01:18:28   Think it's gonna have a headphone jack?

01:18:32   (laughing)

01:18:35   Did you see the story?

01:18:36   I gotta put it in the show notes.

01:18:37   I don't know if you saw it in the shared note,

01:18:39   but there's this YouTube video from a guy.

01:18:43   It's like a half hour video of how he made,

01:18:46   how he added a headphone jack to his iPhone 7.

01:18:50   Like literally, I wouldn't,

01:18:52   I don't want anything to do with that.

01:18:54   And then when he says,

01:18:55   oh, the Taptic Engine is still in the way,

01:18:57   I was going, no, no, no.

01:19:00   It's a fascinating video.

01:19:03   I really enjoyed it.

01:19:06   'Cause I just enjoy,

01:19:07   I enjoy seeing somebody with an obsession.

01:19:09   And this obviously became his obsession.

01:19:12   But I don't understand it at all.

01:19:13   I mean, this guy spent four months doing this.

01:19:17   I don't know if he lives in China full time,

01:19:18   but he's obviously an electronics enthusiast.

01:19:23   And so it was interesting to me to get a peek

01:19:25   at those markets in Shenzhen,

01:19:27   where you buy all this amazing stuff.

01:19:30   Did you see the part, it was like early on,

01:19:35   where he needed to buy a new USB microscope,

01:19:37   because his old one was a piece of junk.

01:19:40   And so he goes to the store and gets one.

01:19:42   And it's not like buying-- it's like just in a brown box

01:19:47   with no labeling at all.

01:19:49   It's just like a brown box that he's

01:19:51   buying a USB microscope.

01:19:53   But the saleswoman asked if he'd like

01:19:56   to her to set it up for him.

01:19:58   And he was like, sure.

01:19:59   So she opened it up, assembled the whole thing.

01:20:01   Like it needed assembly.

01:20:02   She did the assembly for him, then powered it on,

01:20:05   showed him how everything works, and then packaged it back up.

01:20:09   and he was on his way, like, it's a type of service,

01:20:11   you just don't get that anymore.

01:20:13   I mean, arguably you could get that,

01:20:15   you get it sort of at the Apple stores,

01:20:16   but like, you know, like when you go to Best Buy,

01:20:18   they don't like offer to put the stuff together for you

01:20:20   for free and test it and make sure it works.

01:20:24   - Yeah, it was an incredible video,

01:20:25   but it scared me more than anything else.

01:20:28   - Well, you know what's funny,

01:20:28   and I thought the same thing,

01:20:30   where it's a sign of my old age,

01:20:34   where I'm thinking, oh man, you know,

01:20:37   screwing around with the inside of your phone,

01:20:39   like that. Like basically, I didn't finish it yet, so I'm not quite sure if he actually,

01:20:43   if this is the technique he worked, but like 20 minutes in his strategy was to use one

01:20:50   of Apple's lightning to USB or lightning to headphone jack adapters, put that in the phone

01:20:56   itself and then wire the lightning end and solder it to the lightning connector on the

01:21:00   back of the phone, you know, where the actual lightning connector was. So in other words,

01:21:04   The basic idea of how he added a headphone jack to his phone

01:21:08   is he embedded the lightning to headphone jack

01:21:11   inside the phone and then drilled a hole

01:21:13   where you could plug the thing in.

01:21:15   But he had, like you said, he had to move things around

01:21:18   on the logic board. (laughs)

01:21:20   - Yeah, it was just, I was cringing.

01:21:22   - Well, my thought, my old man caution, caution,

01:21:25   is especially after last year's whole thing

01:21:27   with the Galaxy Notes,

01:21:29   it wasn't like people were hacking their Galaxy Notes.

01:21:31   It's like right out of the factory,

01:21:32   the things were catching fire.

01:21:34   And it's like, there's a part of me that ever since that,

01:21:38   I mean, we all know lithium batteries can be dangerous,

01:21:43   and that it's a very tricky part of all of our daily lives,

01:21:47   all these devices we have that have,

01:21:49   literally have dangerous batteries inside them.

01:21:51   Like screwing around with your phone like that

01:21:54   seems like a fire in your pants, ready to happen.

01:21:58   - Just waiting.

01:21:59   - Right, where, you know, so like,

01:22:03   I'm like that in all ways of life.

01:22:05   Like when I was younger, like as a teenager,

01:22:06   I used to ride a skateboard.

01:22:09   So I see kids on the street doing tricks

01:22:12   on their skateboard or something like that.

01:22:14   I used to think like, wow, that was a cool trick.

01:22:15   That's pretty cool, that looks cool.

01:22:16   And now I see it, I think, oh my God,

01:22:18   that kid's gonna kill himself.

01:22:19   (laughing)

01:22:21   You know, when he--

01:22:24   I've seen kids just go sailing right through a red light

01:22:28   on an intersection on a skateboard,

01:22:30   just I guess trusting their ears

01:22:32   that they don't hear any cars coming.

01:22:34   And when I was younger, I would think,

01:22:35   "Man, that's a bad ass move."

01:22:36   And now I think, "Oh my God, that's a death wish."

01:22:39   - Yeah, you're dead.

01:22:40   - I wish there was a police officer here

01:22:42   to pull you over and give you a stern lecture.

01:22:44   (laughing)

01:22:45   That's what I kept thinking about this guy with his phone.

01:22:48   It's like, I feel like you've just made

01:22:50   like a bomb ready to go off.

01:22:52   - Yeah, well, and when he started drilling into the casing,

01:22:56   I was going, "Oh, oh no, no, don't do that.

01:23:00   "Don't do that."

01:23:01   But he did.

01:23:02   - And then, you know, more power to him

01:23:06   if that's what he wants.

01:23:07   - It just seems so not worth it to me.

01:23:09   It really is, the no headphone jack,

01:23:13   I know, it's trade-offs.

01:23:14   I've said this ever since last year.

01:23:17   I'm not saying it's a complete win,

01:23:19   but it's like a two steps forward,

01:23:21   one step back type thing.

01:23:22   There's more steps forward than steps back,

01:23:25   and it's fine, it's just fine.

01:23:28   Even if you don't buy AirPods,

01:23:29   but you should buy AirPods, it's just fine.

01:23:31   - Yeah, I agree.

01:23:32   Do you think we'll see any updates to AirPods?

01:23:35   - I do not, I think it's too soon.

01:23:37   I know they were announced at last year's event,

01:23:40   but they didn't ship until just before Christmas.

01:23:44   So even though they were announced a year ago,

01:23:46   I feel like it's not even a year-old product yet.

01:23:48   And the fact that they're still behind,

01:23:51   a couple of weeks behind on the ones that we already have,

01:23:54   I really don't think we'll see AirPods.

01:23:57   I just think, I think the best we can hope for

01:23:59   is that they can catch up with demand.

01:24:03   - Yeah, I agree.

01:24:04   I think that they'll catch up

01:24:05   before they'll release anything new with that.

01:24:08   - The only thing I can think of is maybe

01:24:11   if they've identified some aspect of the production

01:24:14   that this is why we're unable to make them fast enough.

01:24:18   And if they could design,

01:24:20   do something internally to fix that, they would.

01:24:24   But I almost feel like if they did that,

01:24:26   it would be like a silent update.

01:24:28   Like it would be the, what are they gonna do?

01:24:30   Change the way they look?

01:24:31   I doubt that.

01:24:32   - No.

01:24:34   - So I don't think so.

01:24:36   - What about Apple Watch?

01:24:38   - That's a very good question.

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01:27:13   and I don't know what those terms and conditions are,

01:27:16   but effectively you get 50 bucks on any regular mattress.

01:27:20   It's a great deal.

01:27:21   So my thanks to Casper.

01:27:22   All right, Apple Watch.

01:27:23   I think, this is another one.

01:27:25   Why aren't there more rumors about this?

01:27:28   I think that there's going to be a brand new Apple Watch.

01:27:30   And I think it's, I've heard,

01:27:33   I heard from one little birdie who does not work at Apple.

01:27:37   I won't say anything else about how this person

01:27:40   claims to have known this.

01:27:40   But so it's, you know, let's file this under sketchy.

01:27:44   And not somebody who I would bet on,

01:27:48   somebody I'd never heard of before,

01:27:49   but someone who just happened upon this information

01:27:51   says that it looks, you can tell,

01:27:52   anybody who knows what an Apple Watch looks like

01:27:54   can tell at a glance that the new one is different.

01:27:57   I would guess, they didn't say anything to me

01:27:59   about exactly what that means, what way that it's different.

01:28:02   My guess would be that it looks basically

01:28:05   like an Apple Watch, but maybe it's like thinner,

01:28:07   'cause I think that's the one way

01:28:08   that Apple Watch could definitely improve

01:28:09   is by getting thinner.

01:28:10   - Yeah, I agree, and what we don't know

01:28:16   about Apple Watch is the sensors and everything

01:28:21   that they're working on in there.

01:28:24   And so there's definitely a lot of room

01:28:28   for Apple to move on the watch.

01:28:32   - There are rumors, the rumors that have been out

01:28:34   are that they are going to have some models

01:28:38   with cellular networking, independent cellular networking.

01:28:40   And I can see, and that's the sort of thing

01:28:44   you know exactly how that leaked. It leaked from the fucking carriers, right? It's sort of like how

01:28:50   when Apple's TV deals leak, you know? Remember that story about Eddie Q going in to meet with HBO

01:28:58   and he showed up with jeans and sandals or something? And a Hawaiian shirt or something.

01:29:06   Yeah, and it's like, well, geez, I wonder who leaked that story. Was it Eddie Q or was it the

01:29:10   The people complaining about the way Eddie was dressed.

01:29:13   - Yeah. - Pretty obvious who leaked that.

01:29:15   Well, you know that this Apple Watch

01:29:16   with cellular networking leaked from the carriers.

01:29:19   My guess is that's probably what,

01:29:21   that they're gonna announce that.

01:29:23   This is what Apple does, is they make,

01:29:27   the first product's the hardest one to make.

01:29:29   So the first Apple Watch was late,

01:29:32   and it was, remember when it first shipped, it was,

01:29:36   I mean, I think that they really wanted to ship it

01:29:40   the holiday quarter before it actually came out.

01:29:43   And it was eight months later than that

01:29:45   when it actually started shipping.

01:29:48   In the first few months, it was really hard to get.

01:29:50   They were all sold out and back ordered.

01:29:52   'Cause it's hard, the first product is hard.

01:29:54   But then what does Apple do after that?

01:29:56   Is they, every year, release a new version

01:29:59   with a year's worth of subtle or not so subtle improvements

01:30:03   or additional sensors, additional networking.

01:30:05   So I'd be a little surprised

01:30:09   if there's not a new Apple Watch next week.

01:30:11   I really would.

01:30:12   Now, you look at the navigation of the Apple Watch.

01:30:17   Do you use your watch much?

01:30:21   In between.

01:30:24   It's one of--

01:30:25   - Okay.

01:30:26   - I do wear it a lot when I know I'm gonna be working

01:30:29   all day 'cause I really love the unlocking of the Mac

01:30:32   with the Apple Watch.

01:30:33   - Yeah, me too.

01:30:34   - But I hardly use that, the circular type navigation

01:30:39   with the icons, it's cool.

01:30:41   - No, never.

01:30:41   Yeah, I never used it.

01:30:42   - But I, you know, I'm just never there.

01:30:45   - I think it's a design mistake.

01:30:47   I don't think, actually they kind of--

01:30:50   - Ah, I don't know if it was a mistake.

01:30:51   - I do, I think it was a mistake.

01:30:53   I think it's a bad UI.

01:30:55   And I think that they, I think that's why there's,

01:30:57   the watchOS 4 has a new list view for apps,

01:31:01   where you can change the view from that round honeycomb

01:31:04   to just a scrolling list.

01:31:06   And I think that's a much better interface.

01:31:09   bigger tap targets, and just a list.

01:31:12   I never know where the hell my apps are in that honeycomb.

01:31:14   It looks cool. - Well, yeah, there's that.

01:31:16   - It looks cool, and the animation is cool,

01:31:19   but to me, it's just not usable.

01:31:21   I mean, and not like it's unusable,

01:31:23   but it's, you know, the usability is poor, I would say.

01:31:27   - But from a design and effects standpoint,

01:31:33   it is a typical Apple type thing.

01:31:37   - I think it's atypical because it's too confusing, I think.

01:31:41   I don't know.

01:31:42   I think that switching to a list.

01:31:44   - Just from design, not usability.

01:31:46   Leave usability.

01:31:48   But I'm saying when you scroll around with it, it's cool.

01:31:52   It's got that nice magnifying effect.

01:31:55   And that part is good.

01:31:57   - I think the reason why they've gotten away

01:32:00   with a poor design for that screen

01:32:02   is that most people don't need it anyway.

01:32:04   You just don't need to launch apps on your phone.

01:32:07   I mean, I don't know.

01:32:07   - Yeah, that's true.

01:32:09   - And I think it's no secret.

01:32:11   I think Apple was upfront about it,

01:32:13   especially with watchOS 3 last year,

01:32:15   that hey, we've really narrowed down

01:32:17   what this device is good for.

01:32:18   It's good for notifications,

01:32:20   and it's good for fitness tracking.

01:32:22   - Yep.

01:32:23   - And they focused the OS on that,

01:32:26   and I think that they will continue to,

01:32:28   whatever is new in the hardware will be focused on that.

01:32:31   I mean, there was a story, who was it,

01:32:35   Men's Health had earlier this week where they got to go

01:32:38   behind the scenes in Apple's secret fitness lab

01:32:41   where they had these freaky looking blue masks

01:32:46   on the people exercising.

01:32:47   They said they cost like $4,000 each,

01:32:49   but they like can measure like the exact like input

01:32:52   and output of the oxygen and stuff like that.

01:32:55   I just don't think Apple would pitch an exclusive,

01:33:01   "Hey, we'll give you a behind the scenes,

01:33:03   at the secret lab, I don't think that they would do that at the end of August or early September

01:33:09   if they weren't doing it to sort of ramp up excitement of fitness tracking with Apple Watch

01:33:15   because there's going to be a new Apple Watch.

01:33:17   Pete: Now, I haven't installed the new betas of WatchOS, but I understand that there's some new

01:33:25   types of fitness tracking in there.

01:33:28   Yeah, and somebody I forget where that like one of the new iOS betas somebody like

01:33:34   It was you know, those spelunkers, you know that who can go through and find stuff

01:33:39   They found evidence

01:33:41   But they did they found evidence of like as yet unannounced exercises that you can do

01:33:45   I mean that's exactly it's you know, so part of that is the OS but I think that if they can either

01:33:50   Improve the sensors that already has or add additional sensors

01:33:54   It's exactly what I would expect from Apple

01:33:57   I mean, the one that would be the huge one,

01:33:59   I don't think we'll get it this year, but who knows?

01:34:03   But the big one is the blood sugar monitoring, right?

01:34:08   So that people with diabetes can,

01:34:10   it would just be, the life-changing aspect of that

01:34:16   is almost indescribable.

01:34:17   I mean, I'm lucky, I don't have diabetes

01:34:19   or nobody in my immediate family does,

01:34:21   but it's a common enough disease

01:34:23   that everybody knows somebody who has diabetes.

01:34:24   - Correct, yeah.

01:34:25   And I know a couple of people who have kids with diabetes,

01:34:30   and it's just bad for everybody. It's not a good disease. It's bad, but it's just like almost

01:34:37   heartbreaking when somebody's kid has it, and every day they're pricking their finger. I mean,

01:34:41   it's bad enough when you're an adult, but try telling a six-year-old kid that you've got to

01:34:46   prick your finger every day. So if you could change that and have non-invasive blood sugar

01:34:52   monitoring. Man, that would almost steal the show, really. I don't think we're getting that this

01:34:58   year, though. It just seems too far. I'm too much of a pessimist to think that we'd be lucky enough

01:35:05   to get that this year. Yeah, I mean, they have to be so careful with this stuff because people

01:35:10   rely on it and it doesn't work. You can't say that you have blood sugar monitoring and then,

01:35:17   Yeah, it works 50% of the time sort of, you know, yeah, I wonder too if they would

01:35:24   if when they introduced that

01:35:27   Because of all of the regulatory stuff that they would have to go through to get it approved

01:35:32   I wonder if they would do something sort of like how when they pre-announced the watch itself that you know

01:35:39   Seven months eight months before it actually shipped they could do that because they weren't hurting

01:35:44   there are some things that Apple can pre-announce.

01:35:47   Like if it's a new product that they're not hurting

01:35:49   the sales of their existing ones,

01:35:51   they can do it like with the watch.

01:35:53   I wonder if they could do something like say,

01:35:55   we've got a new sensor that can monitor blood sugar,

01:36:00   but right now it's not approved,

01:36:03   so it's not enabled in the OS,

01:36:05   but you could buy it and we're gonna work

01:36:08   with the regulatory people and enable this in the future

01:36:12   once it meets all the stuff.

01:36:14   to announce it first, then get it approved,

01:36:17   and then ship a software update that turns it on.

01:36:20   I don't know.

01:36:21   I don't know if they would do that or not.

01:36:24   I don't know if that's too much promising,

01:36:26   'cause they can't guarantee

01:36:27   when that's going to be available.

01:36:29   Can you sell somebody, can you have people buy the watch now

01:36:32   on the assumption that it's gonna get approved

01:36:33   when you can't really guarantee

01:36:35   that it's going to get approved?

01:36:36   What if it doesn't?

01:36:38   So maybe not.

01:36:39   - I don't know how all that stuff would work.

01:36:42   Magic stuff.

01:36:44   they'll announce whatever they have at the show, you know, at the event. It's just all gonna be

01:36:51   there. But how they turn it all on and everything. Yeah. But I definitely would expect that there'll

01:36:56   be, you know, maybe not blood sugar mine, but new sensors, more accurate sensors, you know,

01:37:00   there's all sorts of stuff they can do. And I think that they are laser focused on that fitness

01:37:05   tracking and notifications angle. The notifications thing is certainly, that would be a big part of why

01:37:10   you would want to add cellular networking, right? And the mystery to me is how are they

01:37:15   going to sell that? With an iPad, when you get cellular networking, you pay 50 bucks

01:37:23   a month or whatever, 25 for less data or whatever. It's completely independent of your cell

01:37:30   phone, right? You can have a different carrier, which is actually what I like to do. My phone's

01:37:38   on Verizon, I like to have an iPad with AT&T cellular so that when I'm in a hotel or something,

01:37:43   if I want to use it for tethering my Mac to get networking instead of using hotel Wi-Fi,

01:37:48   I've got double the chances of getting a strong signal because I've got two networks. But

01:37:52   anyway, it's a totally separate device, totally separate billing. I mean, you can add a device

01:37:58   like in our Verizon family plan. We can add an iPad if we want and have it in the same

01:38:04   but you don't have to.

01:38:06   Like, how would it work with a watch?

01:38:09   Like, I don't, you know, like nobody's gonna,

01:38:11   almost nobody's gonna--

01:38:12   - I think it's gonna be the same thing.

01:38:13   - But I don't want, I don't know though.

01:38:14   I kind of feel like you'd kind of want it

01:38:16   somehow paired with your phone somehow

01:38:19   because like, if you got like a text message to your phone,

01:38:22   wouldn't you want, you wouldn't want to have

01:38:23   a separate phone number for your watch.

01:38:25   - No, no, no, I'm saying it would be

01:38:27   on the same type of network.

01:38:29   - Oh, I see, right.

01:38:30   - Yeah. - Right.

01:38:31   Yeah, so that you can go out and still get, you know, receive a call, you know, is that

01:38:39   is that going to be a part of it? You know, you have your AirPods on and you're out for a walk

01:38:46   and a call comes and you don't have your phone, but you still have your watch. Right. You know,

01:38:51   how much data will you be able to use, you know? And it certainly, you know, the watch has never

01:38:55   had a lot of storage and it's always been hard to get stuff to it. I mean, like I've tried using

01:38:59   Like Marco Armand has gone into detail about it,

01:39:02   but I think he even pulled the feature from Overcast

01:39:05   where he spent all this time on a version

01:39:09   to get it to play audio independently on the watch

01:39:12   so you could go away from the phone

01:39:13   and still listen to your podcast.

01:39:15   And it was so problematic in so many ways

01:39:17   that he had to pull the feature.

01:39:18   I mean, it's a hassle.

01:39:20   But for streaming audio,

01:39:22   and that's obviously what Apple's interested in

01:39:24   with Apple Music,

01:39:25   cellular networking is easily good enough

01:39:27   so you don't have to worry about transferring

01:39:30   and storing stuff on the watch.

01:39:33   You could just go out, connect your AirPods

01:39:35   and stream the music.

01:39:36   - Yeah.

01:39:37   - I mean, I probably, I don't think I would buy one.

01:39:41   I don't think I wear a watch enough

01:39:42   that I would want the cellular one,

01:39:43   but I could see why some people would.

01:39:46   - I wear a watch every, I wear the watch every day.

01:39:48   So I would get, I would get sell, I would.

01:39:53   - It's, you know, and again,

01:39:56   it certainly plays right into the notifications thing.

01:39:59   And if you work in some kind of context

01:40:02   where you can't take your phone out easily,

01:40:04   being able to get your notifications on your wrist

01:40:08   would be fantastic.

01:40:09   - Well, I,

01:40:11   my watch allowed me to use my phone differently, you know?

01:40:18   'Cause I get those notifications.

01:40:20   So while we were just talking there, somebody texted.

01:40:25   I don't have to pick up my phone, I just look at my watch.

01:40:28   And I saw who it was and said,

01:40:30   "Okay, I don't need to worry about that right now."

01:40:33   So I'll call Tim back.

01:40:37   That's no problem.

01:40:40   - Yeah, so anyway, I do think we will get,

01:40:41   I think we'll see new watches.

01:40:43   Here's the big question I always get

01:40:44   when I talk about new watch hardware is,

01:40:46   do I think that they will be strap compatible

01:40:50   with the existing Apple Watch straps?

01:40:53   I have no idea.

01:40:53   I don't know, the little birdie who told me

01:40:56   that it's gonna be some kind of visual

01:40:59   form factor change to it, said nothing about it.

01:41:02   I would hope so.

01:41:04   I would definitely hope so.

01:41:07   - I would hope so too, but that's kinda like having

01:41:09   everything on a new iPhone line up with the old case.

01:41:14   - Well, but I think on the Watch it's a little different.

01:41:16   You know, if you really-- if you'd really take--

01:41:19   I've looked at it and thought about it.

01:41:20   And I think the things that might change--

01:41:23   you know, like, they could change the bezel around--

01:41:25   have the display maybe go closer to edge to edge.

01:41:28   You know, they could do all sorts of stuff like that.

01:41:32   And if you look at where those channels are for where

01:41:37   you slide the bands in, I could see the watch--

01:41:41   I could see a fair amount of flexibility in their ability

01:41:43   to make a new looking watch that would still have the same channels for those straps. Certainly

01:41:52   people who have put a lot of money into their strap collection would want that. So I would

01:41:57   think if it's not strap compatible it's because they've come up with something so much better

01:42:02   that it was worth disappointing people for it.

01:42:04   Tom Bilyeu (01h00m 10s): Yeah, and I think that they'll do what they

01:42:07   can to make sure that it is strap compatible. I mean, like you said, there's a lot that

01:42:12   they probably can change thickness

01:42:16   or whatever it's gonna be,

01:42:18   but it'll probably be the same size, edge to edge.

01:42:23   - It's sort of like with the connectors,

01:42:25   like where they got so much,

01:42:28   I mean, I don't think it would be

01:42:29   anywhere nearly as controversial

01:42:30   if they do have a new or incompatible strap connector.

01:42:35   It's not gonna be as contentious as it was

01:42:37   when Apple switched from the 30-pin to Lightning.

01:42:40   But I think the same sentiment is still there

01:42:42   Apple doesn't make changes like that lightly. It's not like every two years there's a new phone connector

01:42:48   You know, they realize that having your you know having that work with

01:42:53   Device after device, you know year after year is a feature, you know

01:42:58   And so I think that if they can keep it strap compatible

01:43:01   They would I could I think they also realize like this isn't the sort of thing where somebody who already has four straps if they?

01:43:07   Got the new watch is going to immediately replace all four straps and they're gonna make money on it by

01:43:12   Selling additional straps. Well, and that people have accused Apple of that before - well, they just want to sell adapters

01:43:18   No, they don't

01:43:19   You know, they they make those decisions for different reasons than to sell a $10 adapter or $20 adapter

01:43:27   Right. Well, I do think I agree with that

01:43:29   But that's why I think it was a mistake for Apple to price the 30-pin to lightning adapter at whatever the cost was

01:43:36   It was like either 19 or 29 dollars. I forget what it was, but whatever it was. It was too much

01:43:40   They should have sold them for like 10 bucks. Yeah

01:43:42   I think part of it and the reason they did wasn't to make money

01:43:47   But because they just don't like selling things for less than $20

01:43:50   And that even and I think they realized that with the headphone jack thing last year where they even said like the

01:43:59   that that's the the

01:44:02   Lightning the the replacement lightning to traditional headphone jack dinguses

01:44:10   They even said it's the least expensive thing they've ever sold in an Apple store

01:44:13   Well, because they really it really really just had no interest in making

01:44:17   Making money by selling and now no. All right. Let me take one last break here

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01:46:26   Go get your pictures printed.

01:46:31   What else do we think might be happening in this event?

01:46:34   - Well, there's not gonna be any Macs,

01:46:37   and there's not going to be any iPod or iPads.

01:46:40   - iPads are done for the year.

01:46:43   - The only thing really left,

01:46:46   and to me there's a bigger question than this

01:46:49   than the piece of hardware,

01:46:51   but the only thing really left is the Apple TV.

01:46:55   - Well, there could be some stuff with iOS,

01:46:59   like things that we don't know yet about iOS 11,

01:47:02   because it seems like they're gonna switch

01:47:03   the multitasking to go from the bottom.

01:47:05   And you know how they got, too much complaint,

01:47:08   starting with the first beta of iOS 11,

01:47:11   they got rid of the thing where you could force touch

01:47:13   on the left side of the screen to enter multitasking.

01:47:16   Which again, I think is a change

01:47:19   that they did not undertake lately,

01:47:20   because there's, I know a lot of people

01:47:22   who use that feature.

01:47:23   I never really got into that.

01:47:24   I was always a, I've always been a double click

01:47:26   on the home button to multitask.

01:47:28   But that seems like that could change.

01:47:32   So I feel like there will be a fair amount of iOS demo time on stage.

01:47:37   To be clear, at this event and at every September event, I always, I think iOS and macOS demos

01:47:50   or news is a given because they'll be released shortly.

01:47:55   So to me, an iPhone at this event is a given.

01:47:59   And OS demos, also a given.

01:48:03   - Yep.

01:48:04   So yeah, Apple TV.

01:48:07   I think that we, I will predict yes, Apple TV

01:48:10   will have new hardware with 4K support.

01:48:13   Hopefully, oh my God, please.

01:48:16   You know how I said I don't clap?

01:48:17   I will clap for this one if it comes with a new remote.

01:48:20   (laughing)

01:48:21   - You don't like the remote?

01:48:24   No, well, I don't hate it as much as some people do,

01:48:29   but it's my most used remote.

01:48:31   Almost everything I watch on TV now is on Apple TV.

01:48:34   I almost, and when I'm not,

01:48:36   if I'm not watching Apple TV, it's TiVo,

01:48:41   and TiVo stuff is stuff I watch with Amy,

01:48:43   and she doesn't let me use the remote.

01:48:46   (laughing)

01:48:48   Oh my God, I love Amy.

01:48:53   She thinks I'm way too slow on the trigger on commercials.

01:48:57   - Wow. - How often,

01:48:58   especially if the commercial comes on

01:49:00   and it's a good commercial, I'll just watch it.

01:49:02   'Cause I don't really hate commercials,

01:49:04   but she hates commercials.

01:49:05   And so if I've got the TiVo remote

01:49:08   and we get five seconds into a commercial,

01:49:10   she's like, "Give me that."

01:49:12   So I don't really use it.

01:49:13   So I use the Apple TV remote almost all the time

01:49:16   when I'm watching TV, and it is not a great remote.

01:49:19   It is flawed in a couple of ways.

01:49:21   - So do you have one of these services like Hulu Live

01:49:25   or YouTube or DirecTV Now or whatever?

01:49:30   Where you watch live TV on Apple TV?

01:49:32   - No, no, we've got real,

01:49:33   no, we've just got traditional cable.

01:49:35   That's why we have a TiVo.

01:49:37   - Have you ever tried one of those?

01:49:38   - I almost did because when we moved earlier in the year,

01:49:43   I almost did because we got internet service working

01:49:48   but couldn't get,

01:49:49   It's such a pain in the ass with TiVo.

01:49:51   You have to get these cable card things.

01:49:53   They're these little, like, they look like an old,

01:49:56   those old cards you used to have to put in a,

01:49:59   remember those things you'd put in a power book

01:50:00   to get other additional ports?

01:50:02   Like, what were they called?

01:50:04   - Or they had one for wireless networking.

01:50:06   Remember it stuck over the side?

01:50:08   - Yeah, that's how you got Wi-Fis.

01:50:10   It was like, what were those called?

01:50:12   This is why we need a chat room.

01:50:13   Were they called Nubus cards or was that something else?

01:50:16   - They were huge. - Whatever they were called.

01:50:17   and they sleep halfway into the computer.

01:50:20   - Yeah, so that's what a cable card is.

01:50:24   And it's a way, it's a thing that you get from Comcast

01:50:27   or whoever your cable provider is,

01:50:30   so that they can verify that you are who you say you are

01:50:34   and that you can't, you know,

01:50:35   and once they're in, you can't take them out.

01:50:37   And it's paired with a device, you know,

01:50:39   so I can't take my cable card out of my TiVo

01:50:41   and go to your house and watch "Game of Thrones"

01:50:44   through the cable card, right?

01:50:45   It's a way that, some kind of anti-piracy type thing.

01:50:50   But it's a huge pain in the ass.

01:50:51   And the cable guy, it was like the third or fourth time

01:50:54   when they came to my house when they finally got one

01:50:56   that was working.

01:50:57   So I was on the cusp, but we had the internet working,

01:51:00   so I was on the cusp of signing up for something like that.

01:51:02   I was thinking about getting the Sony one,

01:51:04   the PlayStation one.

01:51:06   - Oh, PlayStation, yeah, I've heard good things

01:51:08   about that one.

01:51:09   - Yeah, and in Philadelphia, it's particularly good

01:51:11   because it has, it seems like this is one of those things

01:51:13   that varies from city to city, but in Philadelphia,

01:51:15   has all four major broadcast networks,

01:51:18   the local affiliates.

01:51:20   But no, we don't have that.

01:51:22   We got our cable cards working,

01:51:23   and so we use TiVo to watch TV.

01:51:26   I have an interesting aside on that.

01:51:29   I love TiVo, and TiVo recently shipped a software update.

01:51:34   It's probably the best software update they've ever had.

01:51:36   They kind of refreshed their UI.

01:51:38   Still isn't a great-looking UI,

01:51:40   but it looks a lot less dated than it did.

01:51:43   But the thing about TiVo is, TiVo is never lags, never.

01:51:48   There's never even a fraction of a second of lag on video.

01:51:52   Apple TV made this a lot better two years ago,

01:51:56   like when you fast forward around in a movie

01:51:59   or something like that or skip to a scene.

01:52:01   But it's nothing like TiVo.

01:52:02   TiVo is like when you open a movie on your Mac

01:52:06   and you just move the head around in QuickTime Player.

01:52:11   It's perfect, and you can go frame by frame

01:52:14   if you really want to see something

01:52:15   in frame by frame, slow motion.

01:52:17   The remote never has any lag at all,

01:52:22   at least for video playback.

01:52:23   Like when you're navigating the UI, it's not perfect,

01:52:25   but when you're doing video playback,

01:52:26   which is the main thing TiVo can do, it's perfect.

01:52:31   I know everybody, I don't know how they're still

01:52:33   in business, because I know most people don't want

01:52:35   to spend a couple hundred bucks on a DVR

01:52:38   when they can get one for free from their cable company,

01:52:40   but it's one of the most amazing products out there

01:52:44   that people just don't,

01:52:45   most people have never even tried.

01:52:48   But the main thing that sort of irritates me

01:52:51   in the back of my head is that TiVo,

01:52:53   I think I first got one in 2000.

01:52:55   I remember I saw it at Rich Siegel's house,

01:52:57   the founder of Barebone Software.

01:52:59   When I first started working there,

01:53:00   he invited me and Amy over for dinner,

01:53:02   and we saw it as TiVo.

01:53:03   And as soon as we saw it and saw how it worked,

01:53:05   we went out the next day and bought one

01:53:06   because it was like, oh my, like I'd heard of it.

01:53:09   And I was like, oh, you skip commercials

01:53:10   and you can record shows or whatever.

01:53:11   But then once you saw it, it was like, oh my God, I need that.

01:53:14   But the thing is, it's using a computer.

01:53:16   Fundamentally, a TiVo is like a PC.

01:53:19   It's using a computer to empower you, the TV owner,

01:53:24   to do what you want with video.

01:53:26   Like, you wanna fast-forward commercials,

01:53:27   you fast-forward commercials.

01:53:29   You wanna skip this commercial, you skip the commercial.

01:53:33   Like, so it was using a computer to give me,

01:53:36   the person who owns this and is watching this,

01:53:38   more power over what I'm watching.

01:53:40   And the way the industry has gone

01:53:42   in the intervening 17 years is we watch more and more video

01:53:47   on computers, whether they're phones or Apple TVs

01:53:50   or Rock You's, you know, almost everything now

01:53:53   is going through a computer at some point, right?

01:53:56   But what we as a society have allowed to happen

01:54:00   is we've allowed the computers

01:54:01   to make the commercials unskippable, right?

01:54:05   Like, you know, you start watching "Game of Thrones"

01:54:08   and you have to watch a 30-second spot

01:54:10   for some other show.

01:54:12   Or when you are on Hulu and you're watching shows on Hulu,

01:54:15   the commercials, you can't fast forward them.

01:54:18   They literally disable the fast forward button.

01:54:21   We did that instead of TiVoing the Saturday Night Live--

01:54:26   in the summer, Saturday Night Live had the little 30 minute

01:54:29   weekend updates a couple of times, the fake news.

01:54:34   And we didn't set the TiVo to record it.

01:54:37   It sounds antiquated because the way--

01:54:39   Everything's on demand now.

01:54:40   And the fact that you have to tell the TiVo in advance

01:54:42   what to record, it is old fashioned.

01:54:45   It's certainly, I realize that.

01:54:48   But then once you have it, you're in complete control.

01:54:50   And you can just skip the commercials.

01:54:52   And it's instantaneous and there's no penalty for it.

01:54:55   There's no pause.

01:54:56   Whereas when we watch the Saturday Night Live on Hulu,

01:54:59   every commercial break, it's full length,

01:55:01   just like watching on regular TV commercials,

01:55:03   and you can't skip 'em.

01:55:05   Like it's maddening to me that we've--

01:55:06   - That's awful.

01:55:08   We've taken the power away from the user

01:55:10   and just given it to the shitheads who were running Hulu.

01:55:14   And it's worse, the commercials are worse

01:55:17   on these digital services than on real TV.

01:55:19   'Cause on real TV, at least you don't see

01:55:21   the same commercial twice.

01:55:22   Whereas everywhere where I see commercials on digital TV,

01:55:25   you get the same fucking two spots.

01:55:27   Every time there's a commercial break,

01:55:28   you see the same two goddamn commercials.

01:55:30   And it makes me crazy.

01:55:32   And I'm not even a totally anti-commercial person.

01:55:36   But I'll tell you what, when I see the same

01:55:37   stupid jingle for the third time in a half hour show,

01:55:40   I wanna throw my remote through the TV.

01:55:42   - Don't do it with your Apple remote.

01:55:44   - No.

01:55:45   So anyway, long aside there on praising TiVo,

01:55:49   I do hope they change the remote, I really do.

01:55:52   - Well, what would you do?

01:55:54   - I would make it asymmetrical

01:55:55   so that you can easily tell which way it's pointed.

01:55:58   And anything they do after that is great.

01:56:01   (laughing)

01:56:03   I think they should somehow figure out a way.

01:56:07   If they keep the touchpad, they should figure out

01:56:09   a way to make it smarter about ignoring inadvertent touches.

01:56:13   I don't know if that means putting it,

01:56:15   like, recessing it a little bit so it isn't really edge to edge.

01:56:20   I don't know.

01:56:20   I'm not the product designer.

01:56:22   I'm a product evaluator.

01:56:23   And the current remote is problematic.

01:56:26   Fundamentally, the biggest problem to me

01:56:27   is that it's symmetric.

01:56:29   And so if you pick it up, you don't know what side it is.

01:56:32   I've fixed that with mine by putting a little band of gaff tape around the bottom part so

01:56:40   that it feels different from the side.

01:56:42   Every home should have at least two rolls of gaffer tape.

01:56:45   Gaffer tape is the most amazing product in the world.

01:56:50   Most people don't know about gaff tape.

01:56:52   It's amazing.

01:56:53   You might think it's like duct tape, but the whole point is that you know what it is because

01:56:58   a musician, but it's like what gaffers use to tape microphones down or lights or something

01:57:04   like that. But what makes it so great, it's this black stuff. It's sort of like a fabric

01:57:11   and it's easily ripped by hand so you don't need scissors. And it rips straight because

01:57:15   the fabric is sort of, I don't know, they somehow make it so that it rips straight.

01:57:21   It's sticky enough to hold things in place and it's unsticky enough that when you're

01:57:25   done, you just take it off and it doesn't leave a residue behind. It's like the perfect

01:57:28   amount of stickiness.

01:57:30   Anyway, I took a little narrow quarter-inch band of gaff tape, wrapped it around my Apple

01:57:36   TV remote so then I can feel along the sides and I can tell which side's the front and

01:57:39   back. But I feel like I shouldn't have to do that. That's ridiculous. Remote control

01:57:44   should not be symmetric. Then secondarily, I think they got to make the touchpad way

01:57:50   less likely to be inadvertently triggered.

01:57:53   Hmm. The big question, I mean, 4k seems like an obvious thing. Like it's,

01:57:58   they're actually behind the curve on that. People, real people,

01:58:02   are they really, I mean,

01:58:04   people have four keyed not, not, not, not like this is late to the game,

01:58:08   but that it's, if it comes out this year,

01:58:10   I would say it's perfectly on time for Apple. If it comes out next year,

01:58:13   I would say they've, they've missed it by a year.

01:58:15   Like this feels like the right time for Apple, for Apple TV to support 4k.

01:58:21   Is there a lot of 4K content though?

01:58:22   There's still not a lot.

01:58:24   There's some. - No, but Apple

01:58:26   can supply their own, right?

01:58:27   And there's rumors that they just upgrade

01:58:30   all the iTunes TV shows and movies that they can to 4K.

01:58:34   I mean, and there's rumors,

01:58:36   somebody was poking around iTunes or something,

01:58:37   and it seems like iTunes is getting ready for 4K videos.

01:58:42   - See, that would be great.

01:58:43   If they could release, Apple never does anything,

01:58:46   and we went through this with NFC.

01:58:49   Apple's not gonna put NFC in a phone

01:58:52   just so that they can check a box

01:58:54   and say that they have it without a valid use for it.

01:58:57   So if they're gonna release a 4K Apple TV,

01:59:00   I would have to assume that they've got

01:59:02   some 4K content to go in there.

01:59:04   And for them to release Planet of the Apps in 4K,

01:59:08   not gonna do it.

01:59:09   They have to release some quality shows and movies

01:59:13   in 4K so that you can enjoy that.

01:59:16   - Yeah, switch it so that when you just,

01:59:18   when you rent a new blockbuster movie,

01:59:21   if you've got the new Apple TV, you get it in 4K.

01:59:23   - Right, right.

01:59:25   So the bigger question for me about Apple TV,

01:59:30   if you remember when they did the,

01:59:33   when they announced the new Apple TV with this new remote,

01:59:39   they said this is the future of television.

01:59:42   And that was-- - Apps.

01:59:44   Apps are the future of television.

01:59:46   - Yes, that was at Bill Graham.

01:59:48   - Right.

01:59:49   - They said that apps was the big thing.

01:59:51   So to me, the big question with Apple TV is content.

01:59:56   Have we really seen a big difference?

02:00:02   I mean, we have single sign-on and that,

02:00:05   for me, that doesn't work completely yet

02:00:07   because I have Comcast.

02:00:09   But Apple seems to be on a hiring spree.

02:00:13   widely rumored to have a billion dollar budget

02:00:18   for original content.

02:00:19   So it's an interesting question.

02:00:21   I feel like as a device, this is pretty easy to predict.

02:00:24   It'll be a look, there's no reason to change

02:00:27   the way it looks.

02:00:28   A nice little black puck is a fine design.

02:00:30   Add 4K support.

02:00:32   Hopefully improve the remote, done, right?

02:00:36   The hardware, that's it.

02:00:38   I mean, they could do more, I guess,

02:00:39   but that's really all they need to do.

02:00:41   It's really the content is the question.

02:00:44   And I almost feel like it's a confused product.

02:00:46   I'm not even sure Apple knows exactly what to do with it

02:00:49   because Amazon's TV thing is meant to,

02:00:54   yes, you can get Netflix and there's apps for other things,

02:00:58   but the main thing is that Amazon itself

02:01:00   has their own original content and you can buy their device

02:01:04   and watch the Amazon shows.

02:01:09   And like a RockYou is a completely neutral device.

02:01:14   RockYou doesn't do any original content.

02:01:16   They just have apps for everything and developer APIs

02:01:19   and people seem, and they keep the price very low.

02:01:22   It seems like, that's sort of like a,

02:01:25   one of the few, I can't think of,

02:01:27   it's very hard to think of a company like RockYou

02:01:29   that's having as much success as they are

02:01:31   against these big companies like Apple and Amazon.

02:01:34   Like it's a tale of a little independent hardware company

02:01:38   that's doing very well.

02:01:39   And part of why they're doing well

02:01:41   is that they're sort of like Switzerland, right?

02:01:42   They're like completely neutral.

02:01:43   Like they don't favor Amazon over Netflix.

02:01:48   They're just completely neutral, right?

02:01:51   So is Apple TV supposed to be like that

02:01:54   where everybody is equal?

02:01:56   It never really has been

02:01:58   because even though Apple doesn't have original content,

02:02:00   they've always sold and rented their own movies

02:02:04   and TV shows, not their movies and TV shows,

02:02:07   but it's like you pay Apple and iTunes to rent Wonder Woman.

02:02:12   - But I think that they become more equal in recent years

02:02:17   as you search for things and it brings up,

02:02:19   oh, do you wanna watch that for free on Netflix

02:02:22   or would you like to buy it?

02:02:23   So I think that the equalization is starting to happen.

02:02:27   - Right, but at what point if Apple makes this push

02:02:30   into original content and that there are TV shows

02:02:34   and/or movies that are only available through iTunes

02:02:38   or Apple Music or whatever way they would have it.

02:02:42   Right now, you get their original content

02:02:43   through Apple Music.

02:02:44   At what point does that mean that they're competing

02:02:51   with Netflix as opposed to a partner with Netflix

02:02:54   where Netflix gets a first-class,

02:02:56   is a first-class experience on Apple TV?

02:02:59   - I don't think that would be in question, would it?

02:03:01   I mean--

02:03:02   I don't think, I don't know though, you know?

02:03:04   And it's different, you know what I mean?

02:03:07   What is the point of Apple TV?

02:03:09   Is it to be the best TV experience for any and all TV?

02:03:13   Or is it meant primarily for Apple's own content?

02:03:16   I don't think it's necessarily in conflict.

02:03:20   I think that there's a way that they can do this,

02:03:22   but to me it's a more confusing product right now

02:03:26   than it was when it first came out,

02:03:29   back in the old days.

02:03:30   So it was really just sort of like,

02:03:31   This is a way to rent TV shows and movies from iTunes.

02:03:35   - Yeah, I don't think any content that Apple gets into

02:03:40   is gonna affect its partnerships with Amazon

02:03:46   or Netflix or anything else.

02:03:49   I think they're all gonna be,

02:03:50   I mean, Apple realizes that we want access to all of it.

02:03:53   If we can't get access to all of it on an Apple TV,

02:03:57   we'll go somewhere else.

02:03:59   - Yeah, I do think they get that,

02:04:00   'Cause the holy grail is to be,

02:04:03   I think I'm still in online from John Siracusa here,

02:04:05   but you wanna be HDMI one, right?

02:04:07   You wanna be the device that gets plugged

02:04:11   into the first HDMI.

02:04:14   The one, when you first turn your TV on,

02:04:16   you want it to be, you don't have to switch the inputs

02:04:19   to get to that device.

02:04:21   The holy grail is to, and to keep you there

02:04:23   for as much of your TV watching as possible.

02:04:26   'Cause switching, once you have to switch,

02:04:28   It's it always is that this sucks.

02:04:30   I agree.

02:04:32   So, so Apple has $1 billion to go towards content.

02:04:37   Now, just for comparison, Netflix spends five to 6 billion in original content.

02:04:47   So, you know, when you first look and when we first heard of Apple's 1 billion

02:04:53   con a $1 billion content budget, you think, holy crap, that's

02:04:58   a lot of money. But in actual fact, it's not, not in comparison to what others are doing.

02:05:04   So, and the thing I read was, and it makes a lot of sense to me was that when Netflix first got into

02:05:10   original content, it was with like a billion dollar a year budget. And it was the same with Amazon.

02:05:16   When Amazon first got into it, it was about, and it's not so much how much money do you have as a

02:05:21   company, it's that practically speaking, you can't really spend more than a billion dollars when your

02:05:27   first getting into it.

02:05:29   Part of the reason that you can spend more

02:05:33   in years down the road is that part of that money

02:05:35   is going to the shows you've already got.

02:05:38   It's like season two of Stranger Things

02:05:41   is part of that 5.6, five to six billion

02:05:44   that Netflix is spending.

02:05:45   Whereas Apple's obviously would all be

02:05:48   the first year of every series.

02:05:50   I guess that's the point.

02:05:52   It's not Apple TV itself, but this push

02:05:54   into original content that sort of, to me,

02:05:57   What is Apple's goal in this is it to be the best it provide the best experience for other?

02:06:02   Any and all content makers or is it to present their own original content? I think it's both

02:06:09   I really do think it's both. I don't think that Apple is going to

02:06:12   punish other content makers because they have original content now I

02:06:18   think that they're gonna put it all out there and everybody's gonna get an app and you know,

02:06:24   What the the user decide but you know when it comes to content is Apple gonna what?

02:06:29   Are they gonna make shows

02:06:33   That are great shows like great great shows like you know

02:06:37   Ray Donovan or or the Breaking Bad or something with swearing or sex scenes or stuff like that or are they gonna do all?

02:06:44   PG shows

02:06:46   Yeah, I don't know. I wrote about that. You know because Disney you know

02:06:51   Back in the 80s Disney remember they had touchstone. It was a wholly owned subsidiary. I think they got rid of it

02:06:56   I don't think they make movies anymore

02:06:57   But it was like because Disney wanted to make stuff that would they would wouldn't put under the Disney brand so they

02:07:02   Created touchstone, which is really just a wholly owned subsidiary of Disney and like, you know

02:07:08   Like I think Beverly Hills cop for example was a touchstone movie

02:07:11   Don't ask me how I remember that I could be wrong. Maybe it was might have been paramount might have been paramount

02:07:16   anyway, but there were movies like there there were movies like

02:07:20   Beverly Hills Cop that came out. And so here's a way Disney could have Eddie Murphy swearing

02:07:24   and telling off-color jokes without selling their brand. I don't know how Apple could

02:07:29   get away with that, but I could see that they just do it. Just have a show and just put

02:07:35   a rating in front of it and that's it. They certainly rent you right now. They'll rent

02:07:40   you any and all major motion pictures through... In other words, I think I might be overthinking

02:07:46   If iTunes will rent me R-rated movies,

02:07:51   why wouldn't Apple's original content

02:07:55   include R-rated TV shows?

02:08:00   - Yeah, I mean, explicit songs on iTunes.

02:08:05   - Right, they're just clear about labeling.

02:08:09   Right, the Apple way isn't not to sell you explicit songs,

02:08:12   it's to make sure you're aware that it's explicit.

02:08:14   - Yeah, I hope that they do.

02:08:16   I hope that they don't just do PG-type shows.

02:08:20   I hope that they go in and do some blockbuster shows

02:08:25   with all these people from Sony that they're getting.

02:08:28   - Well, did you see the rumor this week

02:08:30   was that Apple is a serious bidder

02:08:32   for the rights to James Bond franchise.

02:08:35   - Yes, what do you think about that?

02:08:37   - Somebody wrote, I saw somebody on Twitter

02:08:40   who seemed to, just a random retweet from somebody,

02:08:43   but somebody who seems to know what they're talking about,

02:08:45   like that somebody who follows the entertainment industry

02:08:48   said that they think there's no chance

02:08:50   that they would select Apple,

02:08:53   simply because Apple, you know,

02:08:54   they need a movie distributor,

02:08:56   and Apple has never distributed a movie,

02:08:57   and so even if the money was good,

02:08:59   the people, you know, the Eon Productions,

02:09:01   who owns James Bond, aren't gonna wanna

02:09:04   go with an untested quantity for this,

02:09:08   and it's, Apple probably knows this,

02:09:10   and that they're bidding just to,

02:09:12   it's a signal to Hollywood that they're serious.

02:09:15   I don't know though, it seems to me like Apple

02:09:16   isn't one to make token gestures.

02:09:18   I think if they're bidding, if they're bidding,

02:09:20   they're serious.

02:09:21   And maybe they would just partner with an existing studio

02:09:25   to get their feet wet.

02:09:27   Anyway, I think it would be fantastic.

02:09:29   And I can totally see it, I think they're exactly right

02:09:31   like with the way, and I know some people roll their eyes

02:09:33   at this so-called extended universes thing,

02:09:36   like with Marvel and DC and Star Wars, of course now,

02:09:41   is becoming this bigger something with TV shows

02:09:45   and with multiple spin-offs and movies and stuff.

02:09:48   I could totally see that working with James Bond.

02:09:50   I think it would be fantastic.

02:09:52   - Maybe I could be the next Bond.

02:09:54   - I could see that, yeah.

02:09:55   (laughing)

02:09:58   You have lost weight.

02:10:00   - Yeah, you know, I'm a handsome guy.

02:10:03   There's no denying that.

02:10:05   - I will say this.

02:10:06   I think a lot of people underestimate Apple's potential

02:10:09   and on a lot of podcasts I listen to,

02:10:12   it seems to me like the consensus is basically

02:10:14   Apple totally is inept and sucks at original content

02:10:18   because the first two examples we have,

02:10:21   Planet of the Apps and the Carpool Karaoke are not good.

02:10:25   Although I haven't watched the Carpool Karaoke yet.

02:10:28   I did watch Planet of the Apps and it was,

02:10:30   I could, had trouble getting through the first episode.

02:10:33   Just boring.

02:10:34   And, but I don't see any reason,

02:10:39   I think these just happen to be the first shows.

02:10:41   I don't think it's indicative of anything

02:10:43   of their big plans, right?

02:10:46   Like what was Netflix's first show?

02:10:48   Nobody even fucking remembers, right?

02:10:49   I don't know.

02:10:50   - That's why I say Apple's making a big push.

02:10:54   They're hiring these Sony execs

02:10:56   that are great at making content

02:11:00   and they're getting them in there

02:11:02   and that's exactly what they need.

02:11:04   They don't need original content done by Jimmy Iovine.

02:11:08   They need original content done by TV guys

02:11:12   that have been in the business for a long time

02:11:14   and know what the hell they're doing

02:11:15   and they go out and make a Breaking Bad

02:11:18   or something that's just gonna go way over the top.

02:11:21   And I have no doubt in the next couple of years,

02:11:24   Apple's gonna have a big hit.

02:11:26   - Yeah, yeah.

02:11:27   And it's, they suck at original content

02:11:30   only until they don't.

02:11:31   And I don't think that the existing shows

02:11:34   are any indication of what it could

02:11:37   or what they intended to be.

02:11:38   They just happened to be first.

02:11:40   I think the more interesting thing is why.

02:11:41   Why are they doing this?

02:11:42   Do they feel they have to,

02:11:43   or is it just something they wanna do?

02:11:45   And I think they don't have to do it.

02:11:49   I don't think there's any reason that they have to do this.

02:11:51   I think they want to do it because

02:11:53   they want that services number to go up,

02:11:58   and it is going up,

02:11:59   and one way to get that services number up

02:12:01   is get more and more people to subscribe

02:12:03   to a $20 a month service.

02:12:06   I mean, what does Apple Music cost?

02:12:08   Is it $20 a month?

02:12:09   $10 a month? - No, and $10 a month.

02:12:11   - $10 a month.

02:12:12   And a side question on that is,

02:12:16   well, right now their original content

02:12:18   is part of Apple Music.

02:12:21   You pay for Apple Music, and if you do pay for Apple Music,

02:12:23   then you can watch their shows.

02:12:25   Will that stay the same?

02:12:28   I mean, one reason,

02:12:29   or are they gonna have a separate Apple TV service?

02:12:32   Like, you could pay for Apple Music,

02:12:33   and you pay $10 a month to get music.

02:12:34   You pay $10 for Apple TV

02:12:36   and you can watch Apple's TV and movies.

02:12:39   I don't think so.

02:12:40   I think it makes a lot more sense

02:12:41   that it would be one subscription.

02:12:42   - Yeah, they don't wanna have

02:12:43   too many subscriptions hanging around.

02:12:45   - I think that they realize that it's so hard

02:12:48   to get people to pay for one thing.

02:12:50   It just doesn't make sense to have them pay more.

02:12:54   - Yeah.

02:12:55   - Or to try to get them to pay for a separate thing.

02:12:58   My question would be if they keep it under Apple Music,

02:13:00   do they keep the name Apple Music?

02:13:03   - Yeah.

02:13:03   - It would be funny 'cause it would be exactly like iTunes.

02:13:07   iTunes is a name that says, oh, this is about music

02:13:10   'cause it says tunes.

02:13:13   And over the years, this is how you restore your iPhone.

02:13:18   (laughing)

02:13:22   - Yeah.

02:13:25   - Right, like from when did iTunes come out,

02:13:27   like 2001 or so?

02:13:28   - Yeah, something like that, yeah.

02:13:30   - Or 2000 or 2001, it was right before,

02:13:32   the iPod came out in 2001.

02:13:33   So I think iTunes came out earlier that year,

02:13:36   so let's say around 2001.

02:13:37   So between 2001 and just 2007,

02:13:41   it turned into what was once just a music playing app

02:13:44   and then became the thing you used

02:13:45   to activate your iPhone on AT&T.

02:13:48   It would be funny to see Apple Music follow the same path

02:13:51   where it's called music.

02:13:52   It seems like it's pretty obvious that that's about music

02:13:54   and all of a sudden you're using it

02:13:55   to watch movies and game shows.

02:13:57   - Agreed.

02:13:58   I agree.

02:14:00   - Anyway, do you think, so do you think, anyway,

02:14:03   - We spent all this time, we didn't say

02:14:04   whether we think they're gonna have anything

02:14:06   to announce next week on that front.

02:14:08   Are they going to have like?

02:14:09   - Yeah, they'll have something, I think.

02:14:12   - They did say, they even said at WWDC,

02:14:14   they pre-announced that they've worked out a deal

02:14:16   with Amazon to get Amazon to have an app on Apple TV.

02:14:20   - Yes.

02:14:20   - Which has been a big sticking point of that.

02:14:22   It's the biggest missing thing on Apple TV

02:14:26   in terms of stuff that you can watch digitally

02:14:28   that you can't watch on Apple TV.

02:14:30   Amazon was the one that really stuck out.

02:14:32   - Yeah.

02:14:32   So I see I put that in the category of OS updates.

02:14:37   So iOS, watchOS, TVOS, MacOS.

02:14:42   I think that there'll be a little something on everything, just a little update.

02:14:48   You know, especially if they have something coming.

02:14:51   Oh, TVOS now we have single sign on with Comcast and that all works now.

02:14:55   And you know, just quick, a quick mention.

02:14:58   It's not, you know, they're not going to spend 10 minutes on it, but quick mention.

02:15:02   then here's the update to Apple TV and boom gone everybody's going to be waiting for iPhone

02:15:07   news that's that's what we're there for.

02:15:12   So do you do you think that they will do you think they'll mention Amazon again I think

02:15:16   they probably will.

02:15:17   Oh I think they will yeah yeah yeah.

02:15:20   I think that's an interesting treaty.

02:15:23   Yeah you know that they've made peace did you see the news this week that Amazon is

02:15:26   is working with Microsoft to get Alexa to speak to Cortana

02:15:31   and Cortana to speak to Alexa.

02:15:33   I thought that was interesting too,

02:15:35   but it's like I wrote on "Daring Fireball,"

02:15:37   like this is not the right path, I don't know.

02:15:41   Like telling, saying, verbally saying,

02:15:44   "Alexa, please open Cortana

02:15:47   "and then let me speak to Cortana,"

02:15:49   and it's just not the way you're supposed

02:15:51   to talk to these things.

02:15:52   Like you're supposed to just talk naturally.

02:15:54   - Yeah.

02:15:56   - Yeah, I agree, I agree with you.

02:15:57   It just, I don't know.

02:16:00   Some of this stuff is just getting weird.

02:16:02   - So we've got the smart, some smart lights

02:16:05   and smart shades, window shades.

02:16:10   And right now they're hooked up to the Amazon things.

02:16:15   And we can talk about HomePod briefly in a moment.

02:16:19   So we've got the, but the main,

02:16:22   so we've also got little remotes to make them go up and down

02:16:25   but it's nice 'cause we have a lot of shades

02:16:26   and then you can just hit a button

02:16:28   and by pressing one button,

02:16:30   all the shades go up at the same time

02:16:33   and or they all go down.

02:16:34   So you don't have to sit there.

02:16:35   It's a very nice, it's a first world problem

02:16:39   walking around the house and manually opening up

02:16:41   and closing shades.

02:16:43   It is nice to have it be automated.

02:16:45   But to do it through Alexa,

02:16:48   you have to say,

02:16:53   I don't know if I'm gonna trigger people's Alexas,

02:16:56   but I'm sorry if I do, but you have to say like,

02:16:57   "Alexa, turn on living room shades down."

02:17:02   'Cause we have a scene defined,

02:17:06   you make these things called scenes,

02:17:09   and the scene says like, for example,

02:17:11   "Turn these three shades down," or something like that.

02:17:15   You have to give it a name.

02:17:16   And so the name would be living room shades down.

02:17:19   And then you can make another one living room shades up.

02:17:23   - Huh.

02:17:24   - Or you could name it, fuck you, and say fuck, right?

02:17:29   And you can define a scene called fuck you,

02:17:32   and fuck you means, like, you could say

02:17:34   it has all the shades down, because you don't want

02:17:36   anybody looking in your house.

02:17:38   And then to trigger that scene, you'd say,

02:17:40   Alexa, turn on fuck you.

02:17:42   But linguistically, it just sucks.

02:17:46   - Yeah.

02:17:47   - You can't just say, Alexa, turn my shades down,

02:17:50   right here, you know, which is what,

02:17:52   But if you had a real living assistant, you could boss around.

02:17:56   You would just say, hey, raise all the shades here.

02:17:59   And your assistant knows where you are because they're obviously within listening distance,

02:18:05   and so they know what you mean.

02:18:06   But the linguistic things, this turn on name of scene is ridiculous.

02:18:13   And I don't know which aspects are limited by Amazon and which are limited by Lutron,

02:18:18   which is the name of the company we got the shades from.

02:18:21   but you're not allowed to use the words on or off

02:18:23   in the name of a scene either.

02:18:25   You can use words like up and down,

02:18:26   but like for lights, you can't name, say like, turn on.

02:18:30   I just use the light switches.

02:18:34   (laughing)

02:18:36   - Oh my God, that's priceless, yeah.

02:18:42   - I just use the light switches.

02:18:43   - Yeah, that's what I do too.

02:18:45   - I don't know.

02:18:49   So I think that Apple's onto something

02:18:50   where there was an article this week

02:18:52   about Siri's voice quality improving.

02:18:55   And Jaws was talking to David Pierce of Wired

02:18:59   and complaining about that same thing,

02:19:03   that with the competing products from Amazon and from Google,

02:19:07   you need to issue these precise command line perfect,

02:19:11   exact same words in the right order.

02:19:14   It's not conversational at all.

02:19:17   So I think Apple has the right strategy with Siri

02:19:19   of making it truly be like, understand what you're saying.

02:19:23   But I thought it was a weird article

02:19:25   'cause it was really just bragging about

02:19:27   the new and improved voice in iOS 11.

02:19:29   And Siri does sound better, it sounds far more natural.

02:19:32   Doesn't quite sound natural, natural,

02:19:34   but it sounds more natural,

02:19:35   which is obviously an improvement.

02:19:37   But how many people, if you could choose between,

02:19:41   I would like to have a better sounding Siri

02:19:43   that works exactly the same,

02:19:44   or I would like have a Siri that sounds the same,

02:19:47   but works better?

02:19:48   Like everybody I know just wants Siri to work better.

02:19:51   - Yeah, that's what I want.

02:19:52   - So I thought that was a weird article.

02:19:54   I really thought it was a weird thing

02:19:55   for Apple to be bragging about.

02:19:56   I mean, it is a nice thing that the voices improve,

02:19:59   but to me that's like the last thing on the list.

02:20:01   Like the old Siri voice was fine.

02:20:04   - Yeah, just make it work.

02:20:06   Make it understand what I want.

02:20:08   That's all I want.

02:20:10   It's like the iPhone, you know?

02:20:12   I just wanna be able to read it in the sun.

02:20:14   (both laughing)

02:20:15   That's it, that's it.

02:20:17   Keep everything else. - All right, Jimmy,

02:20:18   - Anything else you wanna talk about this week?

02:20:20   I think we got it.

02:20:21   Anything else you expect on the show?

02:20:22   I think that's it for the event next week, right?

02:20:24   It's gonna be iPhones, iOS.

02:20:26   Do you think that, all right, I guess the last but not least

02:20:29   is HomePod, do you think there's gonna be anything

02:20:30   about HomePod?

02:20:31   - They might do an update because we're expecting it

02:20:34   any time now.

02:20:35   But I think that they'll do an update if they have something

02:20:39   that else that they're willing to share.

02:20:41   'Cause if you remember at WDC,

02:20:44   there's a lot that they wouldn't talk about.

02:20:46   like the Siri integration and all that.

02:20:48   If they're willing to talk about that stuff,

02:20:51   then they may do a segment on it during the keynote.

02:20:56   If they're not ready to talk about that stuff yet,

02:20:59   I don't think we'll see it.

02:21:00   - I thought, the more I think about it after WWDC,

02:21:03   I think it's very clear in hindsight

02:21:06   that the way that they preannounced HomePod,

02:21:09   and again, there's a perfect example

02:21:10   of a product Apple's willing to preannounce,

02:21:12   because anybody who hears the pitch for it and thinks,

02:21:16   hmm, I might get that, they're only making a decision

02:21:19   not to buy a competitor's product, right?

02:21:22   It's not like it's hurting the sales

02:21:24   of any existing Apple products, so they preannounced it.

02:21:27   The way they preannounced it to me seemed very strategic

02:21:30   that they only told us about things that can't be copied.

02:21:35   I guess what it looks like could be copied,

02:21:39   But in terms of not letting anybody touch the demo units

02:21:44   and not really telling us so much about how it works,

02:21:48   I almost feel like that's because they thought

02:21:50   if we tell people how it works,

02:21:51   we're worried our competitors are gonna copy it.

02:21:54   And by holding it out until it actually ships

02:21:58   is every month that the features that might get copied

02:22:01   are left behind.

02:22:02   So that's my guess.

02:22:03   - They could announce a ship date.

02:22:05   - I don't know.

02:22:08   It would be like an under promise and over deliver thing

02:22:11   if it's, you know, surprise, it's ready to sell

02:22:14   or we're gonna put it on, you know,

02:22:16   it's gonna go on sale the first week of October

02:22:17   or something like that.

02:22:19   'Cause I think based on WWDC, it made it sound like

02:22:22   it wasn't gonna ship 'til like December or something.

02:22:24   - Exactly, so yeah, that would be a great thing.

02:22:27   But they're gonna try their best to get all of these things

02:22:30   out in time for the holiday shopping season.

02:22:32   - That would be, you know what would be an interesting angle

02:22:35   would be if the new Apple TV integrates with the HomePod

02:22:40   so that it would seamlessly let you use your HomePod

02:22:43   as the speakers for your TV.

02:22:45   - Yeah, and as you know, having seen it,

02:22:49   there are no optical or HDMI-type things to put in there,

02:22:54   so it would have to go over the network and connect to that,

02:22:57   which I'm sure Apple could do some way.

02:22:59   - Yeah, well, think about AirPods, right?

02:23:01   - Yeah.

02:23:03   - Like two things that communicate over the air

02:23:06   and have to be in perfect sync

02:23:09   or else you would go insane, right?

02:23:10   Like if one AirPod was a 16th of a second

02:23:13   behind the other one,

02:23:14   (laughing)

02:23:17   you'd throw 'em in the gutter, right?

02:23:19   I mean, you'd smash 'em, it would make you insane.

02:23:23   So in terms of being able to wirelessly sync

02:23:27   at least within, let's just say,

02:23:29   a room distance, literally down to the smallest perceptible fraction of an inch to keep two

02:23:38   things, a stream of wireless audio in sync.

02:23:42   I would say AirPods are existence proof that Apple can do it.

02:23:46   I think that would be really cool.

02:23:47   It really would be.

02:23:49   And then it really makes the HomePod seem like, it makes the appeal seem way, way higher

02:23:56   to me, 'cause then it's the one audio device

02:23:58   I have to put in my living room.

02:24:00   I don't have to have a separate one for music.

02:24:02   You know what I mean?

02:24:03   That to me is the weird thing

02:24:04   about the original HomePod pitch,

02:24:05   is that it is just for music and maybe podcasts.

02:24:08   And it just seems weird to me.

02:24:11   I could see in your kitchen, maybe that makes sense,

02:24:14   because you don't really watch TV in your kitchen.

02:24:18   You just listen to stuff.

02:24:20   But as a living room device, it seems weird to me

02:24:22   to have a really nice speaker that only is used for music.

02:24:27   And then when you watch TV, you have to have something else.

02:24:30   Yeah.

02:24:31   So I would love that.

02:24:32   I would love it if they announced that Apple TV and HomePod work

02:24:37   together.

02:24:39   We'll see.

02:24:39   And you know what's interesting about that, too,

02:24:42   is it would mean, though, that all the other stuff you

02:24:47   do on your TV, like if you have a TiVo,

02:24:48   or if you have a PlayStation, or a DVD player,

02:24:51   would still need their own audio.

02:24:53   - Right, so I have a full Sonos system now, so.

02:24:56   - Right, exactly, right.

02:24:58   So that's, you've already, I've put off,

02:25:00   that's one reason I've put off getting a Sonos,

02:25:03   is just, I wanna hear the whole HomePod story

02:25:07   before plunking the money down on that.

02:25:10   Because if I can use the HomePod for more of it,

02:25:12   that would be interesting.

02:25:13   But it would be, like I said,

02:25:14   like the holy grail is to have your TV playing computer,

02:25:19   your Apple TV or your Roku or your Amazon Fire TV

02:25:22   or whatever to be HDMI one, the main thing.

02:25:25   If you get way better audio when you watch Apple TV

02:25:29   than when you watch anything else on your TV,

02:25:32   that's gonna make Apple TV more likely

02:25:34   to be like your main go-to thing.

02:25:36   Like for example, I guess the canonical example of that

02:25:39   would be which device do you use to watch Netflix?

02:25:42   'Cause Netflix is the one where like everything has it.

02:25:45   Right, you're just most modern,

02:25:46   A lot of TVs literally have it built in.

02:25:49   The TV itself has a Netflix.

02:25:52   - I always use Apple TV.

02:25:53   - Right, we can use, I do, that's what I use.

02:25:55   I use Apple TV, but we have a PlayStation that has Netflix,

02:25:58   we have a, our TiVo can play Netflix.

02:26:02   Everything has Netflix.

02:26:04   So which one do you use for Netflix?

02:26:05   Well, if Apple TV makes Netflix sound better,

02:26:08   then it's more likely to be your first device.

02:26:11   So that's my big prediction.

02:26:13   - HDMI one. - I just made this up.

02:26:15   That's my, I just came up with that right here

02:26:18   talking to you, Jim, you inspired me.

02:26:19   But that's my prediction, is a HomePod Apple TV connection.

02:26:23   - That would be cool. - And it only works

02:26:24   with the new Apple TV, not the old one.

02:26:26   - Yeah, that would be cool, I'd love that.

02:26:28   - That would be a reason that, I don't have a 4K TV,

02:26:32   but that would be a reason why I would buy the new Apple TV

02:26:34   even though I don't have 4K TV.

02:26:36   I would buy it for the HomePod integration.

02:26:38   All right, that about wraps it up for me.

02:26:41   This is a good thing, I'll see you in a couple days.

02:26:44   - Yeah. - It's always nice to,

02:26:45   I always like that.

02:26:46   All right, I'll talk to you then.

02:26:48   Maybe we'll do a Periscope together like we did last year.

02:26:51   - Yeah, really, that'd be fun.

02:26:52   - Yeah, all right, I will see you next week.

02:26:54   Anything else?

02:26:55   - No, that's it.

02:26:56   - People can read your fine work at The Loop.

02:27:00   It's loopinsight.com, the fine website.

02:27:04   And then on Twitter, you're J Dalrymple, right?

02:27:07   - That's me.

02:27:08   [ Silence ]