175: ‘Uncle Joe’s Bathtub Gin’ With Glenn Fleishman
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What an amazing technology indoor plumbing is.
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You're a Stephen Johnson fan, right?
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Yeah, so you know his book Ghost Map from several years ago, like a decade ago, 2006.
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It was about the fellow who basically invented epidemiology.
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And, but it also has a really long discussion about how before, I mean, there was indoor
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plumbing then.
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This is actually when we had generally had indoor plumbing in cities.
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how, what happened to all the effluvia? Where did it go? There were all these specialized
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professions to deal with, like, night soil and other kinds. So, there were various products
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and various people whose professions were to handle the products of society. And it's
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really incredible, like, the book is great because it's about sort of how empirical
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science becomes a thing that we then start to rely on and it changes the nature of medicine
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and health, but it's also like, wow, there were a lot of people employed dealing with
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shit in London. I mean, you had to. You had to be.
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Well, it's—if you think about it, it's not just—I first thought it often just seems
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like, wow, that would be inconvenient.
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But the volume!
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Right, that it's—
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And the smells, right? Like, it's like once a year or so, I end up having to go in like
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a porta potty for some reason or another, you know, I'm at some sort of event where
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you've got to go in a porta potty. And porta potty technology, I think has advanced to
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a significant degree where where there's that blue stuff that's in the hole that I think
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does take care of an awful lot of the unpleasant odors of just releasing your your waste into
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all, literally just a big bucket.
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Pete: A little cabin, camping recently, and experienced more sort of "feel the tree"
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It's very different.
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Jared: It always occurs to me, though, that that was what going to the bathroom was like
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every single time you went to the bathroom.
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Pete; Oh yeah, I try to think, like, when we think about the past, we think about inconveniences
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and we think about horses and muddy streets and all that.
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Like, were you watching Westworld just finish up?
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I have watched Westworld.
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The series is extraordinary, I think. The finale is great. I really liked it. We have
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an episode coming out on the incomparable about the whole, with all full spoilers. But,
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you know, that's the vision of the West where it's really neat and clean. So, the
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people are shooting each other and there's fornication and so forth, but there is no
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horse manure on the streets of Westworld because it's cleaned up. And I've often thought
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the thing that we can't replicate when we think about the past is the smell and the
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constant mess. Like, everything was dirty and everything smelled until like 1910 or 1890 or
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something like that. And then it started to improve gradually. And then by the 1930s, cities
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smelled a lot less and by the 50s, it was sort of like if things smelled, something was terribly,
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terribly wrong.
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Pete: Right. I've heard, maybe it was even in the Steven Johnson book. But, you know, and it makes
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sense. But like, in like the late at the turn of the last century, the streets of major cities like
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New York and Philadelphia and London were just it ever just curb to curb horseshit. It was just the
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streets were just paved with a layer of horseshit because there was no way to keep up with.
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Pete: Yeah. Sean, is this a metaphor for this year?
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Pete: It could be.
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Pete; I sort of feel like that's what we're, we're talking about one thing, but we need another.
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But I did think that Westworld I I thought that it was weird that they never addressed the the sort of
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The roughing it aspects of I mean this is not a spoiler
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The basic concept of the show is not a spoiler that it's at some point in the future
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there's like a theme park where people go and
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For a lot of money you get to pretend to live in the Old West for a couple of days
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And there's action and adventure that you can take part in
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But, yeah, nobody mentions that, you know, you gotta go shit in an outhouse.
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Pete: Yeah, it's pretty, it's a very, it's clean. I mean, there's a lot of, there's
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some, a lot of certain bodily fluids, mostly blood, but there's no other kinds of bodily
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fluids. You know, there's a sensibility thing, like, there's things you can't, there's
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things you can't do and talk about, even on HBO, apparently, which is good. But yeah,
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it was kind of, it was supposed to be a theme park, so for all we know, Hidden in the Bushes
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were like, you know, little potties that broke the spirit. But I think, yeah, I think that's
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the thing that people don't get—people who camp know about this, of course, because
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they deal with it. You go out in the woods, you're a hunter, or you like to go out and
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camp, and you're in areas that have no facilities at all, you know. But most of us do not have
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to deal with the basic human realities that people did for billions of years, or hundreds
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of millions of years, I should say.
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Right. And I mean, it's getting cold in Philadelphia. It's very cold today. I mean,
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I'm not quite sure how cold, but it certainly felt cold when I was outside. And it's like,
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imagine, I had to go outside every time to take a leak.
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Oh, man. We had an inch or two of snow in Seattle, which is a snowpocalypse for us.
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So, they shut down—no, I'm kidding. It mostly melted, but they started the schools two hours
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late because the bus routes were very steep hills. So, whenever it snows, they can't
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really send the buses up, they run snow routes, and it's sort of a safety for that rather than,
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like, you know, the streets are impassable. So, they don't want to have—I think bus
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plunge is not a headline you want to see. It's really bad.
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Pete: Did you ever watch Deadwood?
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Pete; I didn't! I heard it was fantastic. I think it came out when I had Small Children,
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so I never really got, oh, and you had to have, that was on HBO, wasn't it?
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Pete; Yeah, it was on HBO. From 2004 to 2006.
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I missed it. I bought HBO Now where I'm subscribing specifically to watch
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Westworld. So in those days I would have had to pay the cable thing.
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You can probably get Deadwood then, right? I think that the HBO has—keeps most of their old shows in
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there. You have to know this going—I thought it was a marvelous show. I really loved it. I was a
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big fan. It was created by a guy named David Milch who was, I guess—it was like before people called
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called Showrunner Showrunners, but he was the guy behind NYPD Blue, which was back in
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the 90s, probably the first serious TV show that I ever really fell in love with. And
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it was weird because it was a network show and I guess it was fairly cheap to produce
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and it went on forever and ever, long past when it was, and I kept watching because I
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liked it enough, but it sort of, NYPD Blue sort of ended with a whisper because it just
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Oh, yeah, that was the worst thing.
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I mean, it was on for like ten years or something like that, but it was a great show.
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And still had, you know, there was enough good in the characters to, you know, make...
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There were a couple of episodes a season that were always good, but it was kind of hard.
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And it was on ABC, and those ABC shows had to do like 22 shows a year, which is too much.
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Like, part of the secret of the modern resonance or renaissance in, like, movie-quality TV
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shows is that they only do, like, 10 episodes at a time, and sometimes not even once a year.
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It might take 18 months to get the next 10 episodes out.
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There's a sort of quality instead of quantity aspect to these HBOs and Netflix.
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Pete: Oh yeah, season two of Westworld is coming out in 2018.
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But, although I think, isn't there a little sequential thing?
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Like, they sort of, they play it a little by ear.
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I don't know when they got the renewal request, but I believe Westworld has been, I think,
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one of the most popular shows. I mean, I'm sure Games of Thrones swamps it, but they,
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I think they are okay at HBO. They're very good about funding things with no strings
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attached, I've heard. I keep reading about how they're such a, they're an amazing organization
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by just saying, they don't throw money at something, but they trust, they trust people,
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right? But they, I don't think they gave them the dollars for season two or really
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fully committed until it was underway and the showrunners, Nolan and Joy, are saying,
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"We need time to do this right." They had to stop production twice to do some retooling. I think
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once was kind of tool up and the other was to sort of rejigger because they realized they'd gotten
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some mechanics wrong and they wanted to fix those, which is admirable. And they had the freedom to do
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that, which is incredible. And then it rolled out.
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Pete: Narrative mechanics?
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Pete; That's right.
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Pete; What did you mean by mechanics?
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Pete; Oh, oh, I think, oh, world mechanics. Apparently they built, they built the world. I
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I mean, it's really clear watching the whole season that they really understood what it
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They had an arc, they had a circle, they had, there are time bombs in episode one that pay
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off in ten and aren't referred to in the interim.
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So, I trust them having watched it, but I think they had the freedom to go back and
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say, you know, we thought the world was going to work.
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I mean, this is what they said, it's something along the lines of, we thought this is how
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the world worked and then we realized that changed, but in episodes, I think it was one
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to three, maybe it was a little even more, they had elements that were now wrong inside
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their ecosystem. So, they reshot and fixed them, so they were consistent. And I'm thinking,
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how wonderful they did that, had the time to do it, that that's the conscientiousness
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they had. What an incredible thing. And I'm sure the show benefited from it, because otherwise,
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especially with the level of attention it got. Can you imagine by episode five, people
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were like, "No, well, excuse me, but in episode three, they bled from the left." And
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we know that's not true in Westworld.
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Yeah. I'm actually... anyway, Wes, the thing about Deadwood, to go back one digression,
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was that Deadwood wound up getting cancelled before, and they didn't even have time to
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give it a proper final episode.
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So it just sort of ends. So I want to warn anybody before they get into it that it's
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a very dissatisfying ending. It's like you don't go into it looking for any kind of complete
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loop on any of the characters or anything. You just kind of have to take it for what it is.
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But anyway, Deadwood was a Western, took place based on real people, actually,
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in Deadwood, South Dakota. And it was probably the grittiest Western I've ever seen,
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where there was some shit on the streets, you know? And they showed people, you know,
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urinating out in the middle of the street and stuff like that.
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And a Baroque swearing, I heard. I heard just endless, incredible, eloquent, obscenity.
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Yeah. It's probably the greatest Al Swearengen. He's based on a real character,
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a real person. But it was—
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That's great.
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It was the filthiest mouth I've ever heard. It was poetry.
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So, I guess—I don't want to spoil Westwood, you can't really talk details about it.
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Pete: Generally, I think.
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John: I thought it was, I really enjoyed it a lot, and I'm actually up to episode,
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there's 10 episodes in a season, I'm actually up to episode three rewatching it.
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Pete; Oh, that's good. I haven't gone back, I've watched some episodes twice when they came out,
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and I haven't rewatched the whole thing. Kelly Guimont and Don Melton have a podcast, actually,
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called, was it Hello from the Uncanny Valley? It's now on the Incomparable Network. But they've done,
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they did episodes, they started a little late, they did a bunch of episodes about the show,
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and now they're going to rewatch and do more episodes about it, because we've got a whole
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year to kill, so they'll be doing more. But—
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It's one of those things like the usual suspects, where when you rewatch it and you know
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future plot twists, and then you watch, and you're like, "Oh, they totally set that up!"
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There's so many moments like that in the first few episodes that play completely differently.
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Just throw away lines and it's all of a sudden—the first time watching it, you didn't even notice
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the line of dialogue, but then the second time, it gives you chills.
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It's like, "Whoa, that's creepy," because you know things that you didn't know then.
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It's that layering.
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It's like, I think you can tell when something—this is always my thing.
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I actually feel this way about software, too—is you can tell when stuff is rich and deep,
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when people go back.
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I mean, it works in literature, it works in filmed entertainment, it works in software.
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There's the discovery and there's the richness.
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So, you go and you look at something and you find out that what you thought was a certain
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depth is deeper and deeper because they went, they layered, they went back around and around
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And you know, you could overwork stuff too, like a bad, you know, a bad dough when you're
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baking, but if it's done right, the richness kind of like, comes up from the bottom and
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the more you pay attention, the richer it becomes.
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Pete: Do you think you would like to, like, if you were in that future, would you like to go
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on vacation to Westworld?
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Pete: That's a great question because, right, this is the, you know, are you William or are you,
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I don't want to give any spoilers away, are you another character in the show? Other characters,
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like, I don't know that I would because I think this is the, I think people have different amounts
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of dopamine in their brain, right? There's different ways of expressing dopamine and
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other chemicals that give us happiness and there's people who get great joy in their life
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out of, like, doing ice cliff climbing, right? And I don't need that. I have this kind of natural brain chemistry
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I'm very fortunate to have where I think I am not far off the—when I have a success in my life
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or I'm doing something that I really enjoy doing and I'm feeling very good about my performance doing it,
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I think I achieved maybe 90% of ice cliff climbing. I don't really need that extra 10%.
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Excuse me. And some people—it's not even thrill-seekers.
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It's more like a way to achieve a certain state of like, advanced happiness requires
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doing something extreme.
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And I think Westworld is that, it's a great representation of that, because, you know,
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right now, that used to be something like, you know, just to say, it's like people
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go to Thailand, or they go to other places where there was a, you know, Demimonde, or
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really off-the-grid kind of quality, and they can pay for anything they want.
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They can do things, they might be able to harm other people, like go do bare-knuckle
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fighting and worse.
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Westworld is kind of an encapsulation. It's like a cleaned up version of it where, you
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know, it's not giving anything away to say that there are robots called hosts who look
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very, very human. They're Android, they're indistinguishable, essentially, and you can
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do stuff to Android, so it doesn't count, right? You're in this other place, it's,
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you know, what happens in Westworld stays in Westworld, and I don't think I have that
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desire to—I like the idea of being able to step outside myself into a different time.
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If I was going to explore, like, something like Colonial Williamsburg that was Westworld
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quality and are part of the story, that sounds interesting, but I don't really have the
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desire to leap into a less controlled environment. There's actually a series of books called,
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it starts with The Many Colored Land by Mary, or was it LeMay? I'm blanking on the name,
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I'll see if I'm wrong. But it's a future where, again, this isn't a spoiler because
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it's explained in the first few pages, it's a future beyond ours in which things are much
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more advanced and totally civilized, and there's a small galactic community of different species
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that interact very well, and it's very boring and there's no risk, and people are definitely
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boring. And someone discovers a tiny portal to the past. It's a one-way portal, takes
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you six million years into the Pliocene, I think, and the idea is that when you walk
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through it, you'll never come back. There's no way to return. So, a lot of people, they
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actually, governments try to repress it, then they set it up as kind of an exile thing.
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who really want a totally uncontrolled experience, they're not allowed to take technology back,
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just their own knowledge, and they go there, and it's actually a really beautiful exploration
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of that same kind of thing. Like, Westworld is that. Like, all right, I want to go some
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place where the normal rules don't apply, but there are no consequences. Oh, Julian
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May, I'm sorry, is her name. Would you go to Westworld is my question. Do you want a
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Westworld experience?
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I it's a very close call for me. I
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Would note no joking I
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I have no desire to have a sexual intercourse with an Android no matter how
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Realistic for the same reason that
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Because if they're not super realistic, it's gross and if they're indistinguishable from humans
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it's indistinguishable from cheating on your wife.
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- Exactly, right. - I don't, I, you know.
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So, going back to sex with robot hookers,
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no, I probably-- - Robot hooker, coming through.
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- Right, but they're very nice,
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so I might chat them up at the bar,
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because they're all very good talkers.
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I would enjoy having a drink with Maeve.
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But that part, now--
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- You know, here's a secret I've read
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by reading accounts of sex workers.
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Sex workers say they spend a lot of time
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talk to their clients. There are some sex workers that say most of the regulars, they
00:16:50
◼
►
don't actually have any form of sexual contact with them. They just need somebody they can
00:16:54
◼
►
pay to talk to and they don't want to go to a therapist and they have a long-term relationship
00:16:57
◼
►
where that's the case. So, that would be totally within the scope, I think, of the
00:17:02
◼
►
Westworld design.
00:17:03
◼
►
So, I just want to go and talk to an intelligent robot about whatever with no holds barred.
00:17:06
◼
►
Pete: Right. And I, would I like to go back and have like an adventure where I go out
00:17:14
◼
►
with a crew and try to catch a bandit and shoot him dead,
00:17:18
◼
►
knowing that if I get shot, it's more like getting
00:17:20
◼
►
hit by a paintball type thing.
00:17:25
◼
►
I think when I was younger, definitely.
00:17:27
◼
►
Because I was never serious about it,
00:17:30
◼
►
but I've played paintball a couple of times
00:17:31
◼
►
and had fun doing it.
00:17:34
◼
►
I don't know that at age 43.
00:17:37
◼
►
I don't know.
00:17:39
◼
►
My time for stuff like that is maybe over.
00:17:42
◼
►
Skylighting and Westworld.
00:17:44
◼
►
But it also seems like there's other people there who are just sort of exploring, right?
00:17:49
◼
►
Remember the family that—there was a black family with a small child who met Dolores down by the
00:17:57
◼
►
river one time. So it seems like there are people who go there not for any kind of debauchery,
00:18:03
◼
►
but just, you know, like a family vacation, like, "Let's go," right? I do think—I think that it's
00:18:08
◼
►
It's a very thoughtful show.
00:18:11
◼
►
There were-- I regretted it to some degree,
00:18:15
◼
►
where I started reading the wrap-up shows that go into detail
00:18:20
◼
►
and people taking screen captures.
00:18:23
◼
►
There was one point where they have these iPad-like devices, which
00:18:26
◼
►
I think were pretty well done.
00:18:28
◼
►
They're very thin, but not quite see-through.
00:18:31
◼
►
But they also are like tri-folds, like a tri-fold wallet.
00:18:35
◼
►
So they kind of fold up.
00:18:37
◼
►
they fold up to be like a, maybe like an iPhone Plus type thing,
00:18:42
◼
►
and then you can unfold it twice and get more of an iPad style thing.
00:18:47
◼
►
And somebody took a screen capture at one point of one of them
00:18:50
◼
►
that seemed to say that the show takes place in the 2150s or 2015
00:18:57
◼
►
or something.
00:18:58
◼
►
Oh, I wasn't paying attention to that.
00:18:59
◼
►
Interesting.
00:19:01
◼
►
I don't know.
00:19:02
◼
►
2050 sounds more reasonable because--
00:19:05
◼
►
well, I don't know.
00:19:06
◼
►
- No, no, no, but it's 2050.
00:19:07
◼
►
'Cause you're looking at what the culture is
00:19:09
◼
►
of the employees, but the employees are really sequestered
00:19:12
◼
►
at the park, they seemingly all live there,
00:19:14
◼
►
or that's where they, you know,
00:19:15
◼
►
they don't seem to go anywhere else.
00:19:17
◼
►
- Right, I think that, I don't know
00:19:18
◼
►
if the screenshot really indicates, I don't know.
00:19:21
◼
►
I think they do pay attention to details,
00:19:22
◼
►
who knows if that's right.
00:19:23
◼
►
But I think gut feeling-wise, that's when the show,
00:19:25
◼
►
it clearly isn't like super far in the future,
00:19:28
◼
►
but it's clearly significantly beyond where we are.
00:19:33
◼
►
- Yeah, I like the computers.
00:19:35
◼
►
I like the presentation of technology in it, and oh, you know, the thing that I think is
00:19:39
◼
►
the best telling detail they got right is the way Anthony Hopkins controls Androids.
00:19:46
◼
►
Did you love that? That it's subtle? That he does one finger or he just says, "That's
00:19:52
◼
►
enough now." And he just say it in a normal tone of voice. It's like a Siri thing. He
00:19:55
◼
►
doesn't have to say, "Android 75, halt action and proceed to program 5B," which
00:20:00
◼
►
is what I feel like everything in the 1970s would have been.
00:20:03
◼
►
I saw a funny cartoon on Twitter the other day where somebody was talking to somebody
00:20:09
◼
►
else and they didn't like where the person was going and they just said, "analysis."
00:20:14
◼
►
Oh, man. Shannon Woodward, who is one of the cast members of the show, who I follow on
00:20:19
◼
►
Twitter, and without giving any spoilers, one of the interesting things in the show
00:20:25
◼
►
is, you get to the end of season one and you're like, "Whatever happened to—did they really?"
00:20:30
◼
►
So there's people we don't know who has contracts for season two, but there are clearly things
00:20:34
◼
►
planted that make it clear. And if you go, there's a Westworld, a site for Delos, the
00:20:38
◼
►
company that apparently owns Westworld. And there's details being revealed. Like, they
00:20:42
◼
►
must have a one-year-plus social media, like, marketing plan, because they are already,
00:20:48
◼
►
like, leaking stuff, and you have to go through. It's like a little online adventure stuff.
00:20:52
◼
►
So Shannon Woodward posted this very funny thing. She plays Elsie in the show. She's
00:20:56
◼
►
one of the behavioral technicians, works directly for—
00:20:59
◼
►
One of my favorite characters.
00:21:01
◼
►
Yeah, she's great. She's great. And, you know, again, no spoilers. I loved her early in the
00:21:05
◼
►
season, and she's also a very righteous person on Twitter, so great to follow, because she's very
00:21:10
◼
►
active in promoting for, you know, things like justice and equality. But she tweeted
00:21:14
◼
►
something last night. She said, "My dad, who was a real programmer, was excited to see how
00:21:18
◼
►
Siri had been updated. He said to Siri, 'analysis,' and Siri dumped out a bunch of hacks." And her
00:21:26
◼
►
father, I think her father recognized it, or what do you say, he went to Reddit? It's
00:21:30
◼
►
Unicode text, and if you look it up, it's a bunch of emoji that relate to the show.
00:21:35
◼
►
Pete: Really?
00:21:36
◼
►
Pete; Yeah. If you, if you said to Siri, if you say, you can ask Siri questions that are sort of
00:21:41
◼
►
Westworldish related and she will respond and say things like, "That doesn't look like anything to
00:21:45
◼
►
me." So, they updated it right away, I think. I don't know what happened earlier, but people
00:21:50
◼
►
weren't reporting on it. And then after the finale, Don Melton was saying, "Probably a Westworld fan."
00:21:55
◼
►
you know, super fan, somewhere in the Siri team,
00:21:59
◼
►
adding more responses, but the hexadecimal
00:22:02
◼
►
emoji code was pretty good.
00:22:04
◼
►
I only looked up one of them.
00:22:05
◼
►
- Who says Siri isn't getting better?
00:22:08
◼
►
- It's great.
00:22:09
◼
►
One of them was just like a cactus.
00:22:10
◼
►
I didn't look up all of them, but I looked up one.
00:22:12
◼
►
- Let me take a break and thank our first sponsor.
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This is a huge thing.
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MailChimp has grown so far beyond just email newsletters.
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The store stuff is amazing.
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I can't get into the details in the sponsor read here,
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but it's so much stuff.
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and they really hook up to a lot of the main e-commerce platforms that are out there.
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So if you do have some kind of store, what they can do is help you, for people who opt
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in to an email thing from you, is based on what the people have bought and opted into,
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not like a creepy type thing, but send them emails that they might actually want to get
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with stuff they might actually want to buy.
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It is super...
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There's like a renaissance in email newsletters.
00:23:24
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Because I think, you know, back in the day, people signed up for everything was going through email
00:23:29
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because that was like the first way people got on the internet and then all of a sudden everybody
00:23:32
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►
realized I'm getting way too many emails for stuff that I don't want and it kind of got a bad rap.
00:23:37
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►
But then it's like water seeks its own level and I feel like there is a right amount and there are
00:23:43
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a lot of newsletters, a fair amount that I sign up for that I love and I'm happy every time I see
00:23:47
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them in my inbox. MailChimp is a way that you can create your own. So the store stuff, that's great.
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if you have a store. All sorts of other great reasons. It integrates with
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WordPress, you can integrate with Facebook, Shopify, there's one that
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integrates with an online store. All sorts of ways that you can hook MailChimp
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00:24:56
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They always sponsor the bar at the live talk show. So, my thanks to MailChimp for, once again,
00:25:02
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sponsoring the show. Wow, they're brave. That's a very brave thing to do. Sponsoring the bar.
00:25:08
◼
►
Well, the first time, I've often said this, and I do the intro at the show,
00:25:14
◼
►
I have such very nice-- the Daring Fireball audience is very good people.
00:25:20
◼
►
And the first time I did the live talk show-- well, it was the second time, I guess,
00:25:28
◼
►
because it was the first time at the place where we always have it now in San Francisco,
00:25:33
◼
►
a place called Mezzanine. And we had a minimum, and it seemed easily hit.
00:25:41
◼
►
the first year we did it, though, we didn't hit the minimum for the bar. Because people—and
00:25:46
◼
►
I think what happened was that—I said that it's an open bar and it's free, but I didn't emphasize
00:25:53
◼
►
enough that, seriously, drink as much as you want. Go have a second or a third.
00:25:57
◼
►
Oh, that's sort of sweet. People were so reserved.
00:25:59
◼
►
Right. People were like, "Well, I'll have one, but I don't want to stick Gruber with a big tab."
00:26:04
◼
►
But it was—we actually didn't reach the minimum. So ever since I always tell that story to the
00:26:09
◼
►
audience, you know, that like, seriously, drink, you know, we've, we've never had problems
00:26:12
◼
►
hitting the minimum.
00:26:13
◼
►
That's, that's pretty, that's adorable. That is a very lovely audience when you have to
00:26:17
◼
►
encourage them to spend, you know, to use the money that sponsors.
00:26:21
◼
►
And they have different tiers of booze. Like you could just do beer, beer and wine. You
00:26:27
◼
►
can, you know, um, you know, you could, but I get the top shelf booze, you know, like
00:26:32
◼
►
the name brand, you know, vodka and stuff like that. Like instead of, you know, uncle
00:26:36
◼
►
Joe's, you know, Uncle Joe's Russian special, you know. I gotta say, you know, whatever
00:26:42
◼
►
you want. If it's back there, it's supposed to be there. Have as much of it as you want,
00:26:46
◼
►
and MailChimp will just pick it up. It's very easy for me to be generous, too.
00:26:51
◼
►
"Uncle Joe's booze. I like it. The fire's bathtub gin. Money will buy."
00:26:55
◼
►
Right. Well, it's funny, though. It's gotten the other way around now. Like, there's—it's
00:27:02
◼
►
like I think when we were kids, like if the gin was made locally, it's like, "Watch out!"
00:27:07
◼
►
You know? It's like, "Better schedule a trip to the eye doctor because you might go blind."
00:27:13
◼
►
Whereas now there are so many craft distilleries. I can't even tell you, I was just looking the
00:27:18
◼
►
other day, there's a section in the liquor store here where it's like made in Pennsylvania,
00:27:22
◼
►
and there's so many gins being made in Pennsylvania now, and they all have like these
00:27:27
◼
►
amazingly exquisite, designed labels, you know, they all look excellent. It's not,
00:27:33
◼
►
you know, like, the local stuff is expensive now. It's not, it's not…
00:27:36
◼
►
Pete: Oh man, I had a friend who wanted to start years ago, like, I think it was almost
00:27:40
◼
►
20 years ago, he wanted to start a local craft distillery as a distill pub. No such thing
00:27:46
◼
►
existed in Washington state. He'd been a brewer, had run, you know, brew pubs and worked
00:27:50
◼
►
in breweries, had, you know, done the craft thing. He was totally capable of it and the
00:27:54
◼
►
the state didn't know how to license it. But he was trying to buy this bar in the Georgetown
00:27:59
◼
►
area in Seattle, which is this little weird spot that bars operated during prohibition.
00:28:04
◼
►
There was this very weird exception or exclusion or scam or something. So, it was like the
00:28:09
◼
►
longest operating bar in North, continuously operating bar in North America. He was almost,
00:28:14
◼
►
he was going to try to buy it with investors to turn it into the state's first distill
00:28:18
◼
►
pub and one of the first ones in the country, I think, maybe at the time. And they couldn't
00:28:22
◼
►
pull it off because no one knew how to license it. But now it's like, I don't know if you
00:28:25
◼
►
have, no, there are distill pubs. I've seen places, I don't know what they call it, sorry,
00:28:29
◼
►
distill pub is not the right word.
00:28:31
◼
►
Pete: I know what you mean though.
00:28:32
◼
►
Pete; Place of eunuch's command, distill pub.
00:28:34
◼
►
But yeah, but any places that are doing like, certain kinds of liquor on site, which is,
00:28:39
◼
►
which is, I think that's really cool. It's like, you know, this is, we're trying, we
00:28:43
◼
►
sort of, Westworld's indicative of this, right? There are things about the 19th century
00:28:46
◼
►
that we idealize and we'd like the neat, clean, cool component of it because it seems
00:28:52
◼
►
more real to us.
00:28:54
◼
►
It's just another one of those little things, though, that makes me feel like I was born
00:29:00
◼
►
at the right time.
00:29:01
◼
►
I don't know.
00:29:04
◼
►
Maybe it's my personality where whenever I had been born, whether it was the future
00:29:08
◼
►
or further in the past, I would have—I have a personality type or I would think I was
00:29:14
◼
►
born at the right time.
00:29:15
◼
►
But just little things like the fact that I was around as a kid when computers were
00:29:19
◼
►
were super simple and you could totally understand
00:29:22
◼
►
the entirety of how the computer worked
00:29:24
◼
►
as like a 12 year old.
00:29:25
◼
►
I love that.
00:29:28
◼
►
There's a part of me that is a little jealous
00:29:30
◼
►
that my son is growing up in a world where
00:29:34
◼
►
at the age of 12 he's got a MacBook Pro.
00:29:36
◼
►
I mean, it would have been very impressive
00:29:38
◼
►
to 12 year old John Gruber,
00:29:40
◼
►
but I feel like it was right for me
00:29:42
◼
►
that I was clacking away on an Apple IIe at school.
00:29:48
◼
►
my 12-year-old is programming in JavaScript and other stuff, and I'm like, "You know,
00:29:51
◼
►
at 12 I was soldering RS-232 C ports on my 8K computer, so I feel bad. I mean, I'll open up
00:29:58
◼
►
a computer to change something out," and the kids freak out slightly, like, "Can you really do that?"
00:30:02
◼
►
Not like it's illegal, but more like, "Won't that break it?" I'm like, "No, no, you can actually
00:30:06
◼
►
fix things." It's sort of a sad—
00:30:09
◼
►
But in terms of consumable beverages, I like to drink coffee, but I like really, really,
00:30:15
◼
►
really good coffee, and a generation ago, there was no such thing. I mean, I realize
00:30:21
◼
►
there were some people who kept the art of it alive, but as a mass-market product, you
00:30:26
◼
►
know, like, people went into the supermarket and bought a can of Maxwell.
00:30:32
◼
►
I think this is the best time in history to be alive for coffee, because for most of coffee's
00:30:36
◼
►
history it was not made well, except in limited places, if you could get the beans and it
00:30:42
◼
►
was all there, like you had to be in just the right spot at the right time.
00:30:45
◼
►
But when we were kids, the coffee that our parents drank wasn't even made out of Arabica
00:30:51
◼
►
It was made out of—it wasn't even really coffee.
00:30:54
◼
►
It was made out of some other, like, weird cheap bean.
00:30:57
◼
►
Were they chicory-based or is that something else?
00:30:59
◼
►
I don't know.
00:31:00
◼
►
There's some difference.
00:31:01
◼
►
I could ask Marco.
00:31:02
◼
►
I'm sure he could.
00:31:03
◼
►
It was a brown—I thought they melted brown crayons in water.
00:31:07
◼
►
The basic story is that good coffee from Arabica beans needs a certain kind of climate and
00:31:14
◼
►
certain type of atmosphere, and that's why it tends to grow at the top of mountains and certain,
00:31:19
◼
►
you know, regions of the world where the temperature's right. It's very particular about
00:31:24
◼
►
where it will grow well. And then there's another type of coffee bean that'll grow anywhere. And
00:31:30
◼
►
that's like what the coffee of like the late 20th, you know, this post-World War II 20th century
00:31:37
◼
►
America was made out of, because it was super cheap.
00:31:40
◼
►
The coffee cycle is so funny too, is our mutual friend Tonks, as Tony connects me, he, I met him
00:31:47
◼
►
first, I think we talked about this in some episode before, but in 2004, I met him when he
00:31:52
◼
►
was the head roaster at a local coffee shop that had started up that was trying to be more of a
00:31:57
◼
►
community coffee shop again. They were trying to reclaim from Wi-Fi already, and I went to my first
00:32:01
◼
►
cupping in the back of that store when I was reporting the story, and then Tony left and,
00:32:05
◼
►
you know, kind of traveled a bunch, and he started his own brand. That got sold to Blue Bottle.
00:32:09
◼
►
And then, you know, and he's, you know, he's kicking around doing stuff, but I'm like, now
00:32:15
◼
►
cupping is like such a standard thing.
00:32:18
◼
►
Like, it's a thing people expect.
00:32:20
◼
►
Like the sophistication, even of 2004, now seems almost quaint.
00:32:25
◼
►
And when Howard Schultz just announced that he was stepping down to see Starbucks, he
00:32:29
◼
►
did it at the 15th Avenue, I think it was the 15th Avenue, roasting place, which is
00:32:33
◼
►
Starbucks' new model for a place that is like a roasting center with cuppings and high-end
00:32:38
◼
►
coffees and the whole bit. Like, it's now a thing they are commercializing and pushing out as a,
00:32:43
◼
►
you know, high-end experience, as a, you know, repeatable deal. And that's, you know,
00:32:48
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►
that's already where we're at. So what's the next refinement? Like, there's got to be, like,
00:32:50
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►
10 years from now we're going to be looking at that as course and quaint, I'm sure.
00:32:54
◼
►
Pete: And, you know, in the evening hours, I enjoy the occasional adult beverage,
00:32:59
◼
►
and it's, there's never been a better time. I mean, it's, if you like beer, like, when my
00:33:06
◼
►
My dad was my age. The only beer that there was was the mass-market Pilsners, you know,
00:33:13
◼
►
they all tasted the same.
00:33:14
◼
►
Yeah, unless you lived in a small town someplace or people did, you know, the home brewing
00:33:18
◼
►
thing was starting up, but those were usually, they were, you know, they're quirky. No,
00:33:24
◼
►
there's never been a better time to have a sophisticated palate, probably in the history
00:33:29
◼
►
of the world, in terms of—this ties into technology. So you know how Mark and Dries
00:33:32
◼
►
and other people have pushed these charts that shows how everyone has the kind of stuff
00:33:37
◼
►
that previous generations would have dreamed of. Everyone has a TV, everyone has a DVD,
00:33:41
◼
►
a lot of people have phones, even if they're like living below the poverty line, they have
00:33:44
◼
►
a cell phone on a pay-as-you-go-pant—like, all of these certain signs of material success.
00:33:49
◼
►
But this is the point that people made about the Apple phone, you have made this point
00:33:53
◼
►
over and over again, is the iPhone is the same price no matter how rich or poor you
00:33:58
◼
►
And I think the beverage thing falls in the same thing.
00:34:01
◼
►
You can get, I mean, obviously you can spend a lot of money on beverages, but you can spend a few dollars for a drink,
00:34:07
◼
►
let's say $5 to $10 for a drink and get one of the finest drinks ever made in human history.
00:34:12
◼
►
Now, you can go up from there, you can spend $15 for civet poop coffee or whatever for a cup of it and a million dollars for champagne,
00:34:20
◼
►
But this lower tier, generally accessible, even if it's a special occasion price, is achievable by like most of humanity in the developed world.
00:34:29
◼
►
Yeah, it's amazing. And you know, I think that there was a… I don't know, you know, I think there was sort of a pride in post-World War II America at the sort of homogenization of culture.
00:34:45
◼
►
It seemed right, like when my grandfather was a young man,
00:34:49
◼
►
all the beer came from local breweries.
00:34:51
◼
►
Every town of a certain,
00:34:53
◼
►
every town with 10 to 15,000 people had a brewery
00:34:56
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►
that made the beer for the town.
00:34:58
◼
►
And then in my dad's generation,
00:35:00
◼
►
the Anheuser-Busch's and the Coors became such a thing,
00:35:06
◼
►
and TV rammed this home that,
00:35:11
◼
►
you didn't drink like Philadelphia beer,
00:35:14
◼
►
drank the same Budweiser that everybody drank. You drank American beer. But it was all bland,
00:35:21
◼
►
all watered down for the--
00:35:22
◼
►
- I hate that taste.
00:35:24
◼
►
- Metallic taste.
00:35:26
◼
►
- And the craft brewing revolution certainly started-- I was in college in the late '90s. It
00:35:33
◼
►
had already started, but it was still obscure. And so when you'd go to parties, if they had beer,
00:35:38
◼
►
it was just cheap bland stuff. So I just thought, "Well, I don't like beer."
00:35:43
◼
►
Which is crazy in hindsight, because I love beer.
00:35:47
◼
►
But I love very particular kinds of beer.
00:35:50
◼
►
And I just also think that it's such a wonderful world right
00:35:55
◼
►
now for somebody who truly is obsessive about something
00:35:58
◼
►
like that, like Tonks, and that he can just go and start
00:36:01
◼
►
his own coffee company.
00:36:03
◼
►
Whereas in the 1960s, that's not how it worked.
00:36:06
◼
►
It was infeasible.
00:36:07
◼
►
You had to be like Procter and Gamble.
00:36:09
◼
►
It was like a billion dollar thing.
00:36:12
◼
►
there was no way for somebody, you know, like two people, you know, to start a business
00:36:16
◼
►
where we're going to send coffee around the world by mail order.
00:36:20
◼
►
There's a great book by an editor I've worked with for years at The Economist, who's now
00:36:24
◼
►
the deputy editor, Tom Standage, called History of the World in Six Glasses. It's maybe like
00:36:29
◼
►
a decade old now, and he looks at it's beer, spirits, coffee, tea, what's the other one?
00:36:39
◼
►
like, "I forgot all six." It's tea and coffee, beer and spirits, and I forget the two. But it's
00:36:45
◼
►
basically a history of how civilization advanced through the perpetuation of certain kinds of
00:36:51
◼
►
drinks because of how—
00:36:52
◼
►
Pete: What was the name of this book?
00:36:53
◼
►
Pete; A History of the World in Six Glasses.
00:36:55
◼
►
Pete; And it's six different things, but like, tea is an amazing thing because it's got antibacterial
00:37:02
◼
►
properties, you boil the water to drink it, it replaced the small beer, which is like a very
00:37:07
◼
►
low-alcohol beer that was drunk, that was given out to factory workers in England and
00:37:11
◼
►
other places. They were given a certain quantity of beer to drink every day and it was very
00:37:14
◼
►
low alcohol, but they were always mildly, you know, inebriated. Tea was a healthful
00:37:20
◼
►
And it revolutionized factories because people were—
00:37:22
◼
►
Pete: It focuses the mind.
00:37:24
◼
►
David: Exactly. But people were living in places with bad water supplies, you know,
00:37:27
◼
►
whatever, so it improved health, so it was healthy, it was anti-bacterial, and it didn't
00:37:31
◼
►
get you drunk. And so, it became the beverage of temperance and so forth. And anyway, it's
00:37:35
◼
►
a lovely book because he argues, and very persuasively, that certain, like, the advancement
00:37:42
◼
►
of society isn't, it's not that we got tea because we're at a certain point in civilization
00:37:47
◼
►
where it's possible to have like a global supply chain, it's more like tea actually
00:37:50
◼
►
influenced the industrial revolution significantly.
00:37:53
◼
►
Which is cool.
00:37:55
◼
►
Pete: Fascinating.
00:37:59
◼
►
I have long, I, it's one of those things where I've never really done the deep dive, but
00:38:04
◼
►
I will at some point find a couple of good books on it and really go deep on it.
00:38:12
◼
►
But I have a fascination with the Prohibition in the United States.
00:38:20
◼
►
Because it's another one of those things where it happened—I knew the basic years of when
00:38:26
◼
►
it happened, around 1920 or so, and it only lasted about 12 years, and it led to the rise
00:38:34
◼
►
of gangsters who'd run booze into the cities and Al Capone, blah, blah, blah. But as a kid,
00:38:39
◼
►
it just seemed like, "Well, that was a long time ago, and it's over." But then when you become an
00:38:47
◼
►
adult and you realize just how 100 years ago really isn't that long, right, in some ways.
00:38:55
◼
►
Michael, in the world did making alcohol illegal ever gain popular support?
00:39:03
◼
►
that they'd pass a constitutional amendment. Like, to pass a constitutional amendment,
00:39:08
◼
►
something has to be overwhelmingly popular.
00:39:10
◼
►
Pete: You know what it was? It was fake news, John. It was fake news.
00:39:14
◼
►
It was, like, mothers spread these, you know, the lies about drinking were spread and believed.
00:39:21
◼
►
John "Slick" Baum: In light of our recent election here in the United States and how the
00:39:26
◼
►
fuck did this happen? It's soothing to me mentally to think back to other times where,
00:39:33
◼
►
you know, there were what the fuck were we thinking moments in U.S. politics.
00:39:39
◼
►
We have cycles. Hey, we're about to have our first tea-totaling president,
00:39:43
◼
►
and I don't know how long.
00:39:44
◼
►
That's an interesting thought.
00:39:46
◼
►
He doesn't drink, and I, you know, I reflect—like,
00:39:48
◼
►
Trump has no vices except lying, and he's lying about that, right?
00:39:53
◼
►
But he said he didn't drink, so I assumed it was a lie. It turns out he's absolutely sincere. People
00:39:59
◼
►
have said they've seen him drink in the past, but it may have been decades ago and there have been
00:40:03
◼
►
confirmation people have been with him, you know, enemies and friends and people who are former
00:40:07
◼
►
friends. Like, he doesn't drink alcohol. He doesn't seem to have any alcohol, which is,
00:40:11
◼
►
and it's not a, it doesn't seem to be a moralistic thing. His brother, I mean, he has a family history.
00:40:15
◼
►
Pete: He had an older brother who, you know, literally a long time ago, I guess,
00:40:21
◼
►
It's a drunk himself.
00:40:22
◼
►
Jared: In early '80s?
00:40:23
◼
►
It died, but he, you know, pretty much drank himself.
00:40:25
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, drunk himself to death, right, yeah.
00:40:26
◼
►
And I'm, so I mean, you know, you can see that, like, there are signs of Trump, like
00:40:29
◼
►
things like that, that I think maybe the man has some empathy, compassion, or at least
00:40:34
◼
►
insight, self-corrective capability, but it is fasting.
00:40:38
◼
►
It is fasting to have a president who, I don't know how much Obama drank, I think he liked
00:40:43
◼
►
the beverage.
00:40:44
◼
►
We know he indulged in some cigarettes before he was elected and then, maybe he didn't
00:40:48
◼
►
Jared; No, he smoked, he didn't quit until after he was elected.
00:40:49
◼
►
Pete; Oh, that's right.
00:40:50
◼
►
And then occasionally, there's reports, maybe he sneaked a cigarette here and there,
00:40:53
◼
►
right, at sight. But he's mostly quit, stuffed thing. But it's Trump being a teetotal. I don't
00:41:00
◼
►
think it'll have any impact. I don't think he's going to go out. He's never been a temperance
00:41:03
◼
►
advocate. But I think when I've read things, here's the weird thing about this guy, right?
00:41:09
◼
►
There are times that I read things he says and I go, "But this is very reasonable." And I've read
00:41:13
◼
►
things he said in some middle of long interviews about his brother. And sometimes he's a little
00:41:18
◼
►
harsh about it, but often he is very sympathetic to what the brother went through and very
00:41:22
◼
►
sympathetic to the effect it had on the whole family and how sad it was he died young. And
00:41:26
◼
►
I'm like, "All right, well, you know, I like to know there is a human being under
00:41:30
◼
►
there somewhere."
00:41:31
◼
►
Pete: He is a bit of a cipher. It is one of the weird, I mean, whether you, you know,
00:41:34
◼
►
again, whether you like him, don't like him, or somehow are indifferent.
00:41:40
◼
►
Pete: A very small percentage of Trump voters are actually celebrating, from what I can
00:41:45
◼
►
tell. They're all concerned what's coming next too because they don't know if he's
00:41:48
◼
►
going to do what they promised him either.
00:41:49
◼
►
One of the odd-- well, he's not.
00:41:53
◼
►
One of the odd things about him, though, is that he does--
00:41:56
◼
►
his personality seems to be a bit of a cipher.
00:42:01
◼
►
Whereas Obama, I think, wears his personality
00:42:04
◼
►
on his shirt sleeve, much like Bill Clinton and, I think,
00:42:08
◼
►
too, George W. Bush.
00:42:10
◼
►
I think Elsa, yeah.
00:42:11
◼
►
That's right.
00:42:12
◼
►
I think Hillary is guarded, famously.
00:42:15
◼
►
But there are widespread reports, though,
00:42:17
◼
►
from the people who are close to her that in person she's very warm, funny, and empathetic.
00:42:24
◼
►
But on the campaign trail, for reasons that we won't get into, because it's, you know...
00:42:30
◼
►
But she publicly put up sort of a more serious, guarded personality.
00:42:42
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, I'm wondering if we'll see, we'll probably see the Hillary in the Woods
00:42:45
◼
►
photos "Give Me Life" because she looks like a great weightless drop-offer despite
00:42:51
◼
►
what's coming next.
00:42:53
◼
►
Jared: But you never hear stories about like, the real Trump from the people close to him.
00:42:56
◼
►
Like there doesn't seem to be one.
00:42:57
◼
►
Pete; There's no real Trump.
00:42:59
◼
►
Jared; But talking about his older brother really does, I do believe, I'm with you,
00:43:03
◼
►
where 99% of the stuff out of his mouth I don't believe, but when he talks about his
00:43:07
◼
►
brother it seems sincere that he, you know, and that it really did, you know, he saw what
00:43:11
◼
►
happened and he decided, "I'm not going to drink." And the other thing that's very self-aware about
00:43:15
◼
►
it that I saw, the New York Times had a good story about this way earlier in the campaign,
00:43:20
◼
►
was the other thing that he said about it was, it wasn't just, "Well, I saw what happened to
00:43:24
◼
►
my brother and decided not to drink." He also, very self-aware, said, "I also know that I'm not
00:43:31
◼
►
much for moderation, personally." You know?
00:43:34
◼
►
Pete: It's amazing from him. Wow!
00:43:36
◼
►
Jon Hayser, Ph.D. You know, and looking, like, look at the way he decorated at his home!
00:43:40
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, well, and he also occasionally, like, the unguarded Trump is fascinating because he's,
00:43:44
◼
►
he's, you know, a bully and a fascist in certain ways. And then he says things like,
00:43:48
◼
►
when it came up about transgender bathroom bills, like in North Carolina and elsewhere,
00:43:53
◼
►
his first reaction, someone asked about it, he said, "Well, people should go to whatever
00:43:57
◼
►
bathroom they're comfortable with." And I was like, "Well, that's cool! Like, I'm good with
00:44:00
◼
►
that." And then his campaign walked it back and wrapped it and put it into Republican phraseology
00:44:04
◼
►
and, you know, whatever. But his first reaction, you know, is people should just make whatever
00:44:09
◼
►
choice they want for themselves, it doesn't really affect other people, which you could
00:44:12
◼
►
argue is a little bit of a narcissist choice too. But it was a more, that was his honest
00:44:16
◼
►
reaction. I'm like, I'm curious how much of that kind of blunt honesty we're going to see versus
00:44:22
◼
►
the, you know, tendencies towards much worse behavior. I'm not optimistic per se, but I'm
00:44:27
◼
►
trying to be curious because we will see things that are going to be totally unexpected
00:44:32
◼
►
from a Republican elected president. They're going to not conform with any of my, my wife says,
00:44:37
◼
►
she said this a number of times, the reason that we're feeling anxiety, and I think this goes for
00:44:41
◼
►
Trump voters as well. I think there are a number of Trump voters who feel exactly the same way.
00:44:45
◼
►
I mean, some are elated, but I think that's a small percentage compared to the largest number
00:44:50
◼
►
of people who voted for him, is she said he defeats our ability to predict the future. We
00:44:54
◼
►
all have a little internal prediction capability, and he breaks that and you feel anxious. And
00:44:59
◼
►
that's also what people talk about with fascism, not necessarily directly for him, is that fascists
00:45:04
◼
►
and abusive domestic partners and people in those categories, they try to unsettle you so you never
00:45:09
◼
►
know what's coming next, so you live in a constant state of anxiety. I don't think that's his plan,
00:45:13
◼
►
but I think that's how we feel, that's how I feel, that's how my wife feels.
00:45:16
◼
►
Pete: Right.
00:45:19
◼
►
Pete; How about that technology? How about that new power dual-charter?
00:45:28
◼
►
Pete; Let's talk about something that we know works.
00:45:30
◼
►
Pete; Who says I'm not good at segues?
00:45:33
◼
►
That's great. So you had a story at Macworld. I think it just came out yesterday. Wait, wait, I would interrupt you. All right
00:45:40
◼
►
Magic loop. Did you see about the ostensibly faked magic magic leap demonstration? No, tell me about it
00:45:46
◼
►
You may want to talk about it. I own all the details
00:45:48
◼
►
But you know, it's a it's one of these new VR things and Kevin Kelly wrote a really breathless piece earlier this year for Wired
00:45:54
◼
►
He got a demo. He got to see it and it's a bunch of super intelligent people involved in it
00:45:59
◼
►
They're running the lab in Florida away from Silicon Valley. Oh
00:46:02
◼
►
Like next level like whatever everyone's working on now that's being released in demo. This is the thing beyond it is how it's being hyped
00:46:09
◼
►
Well, they put out a demonstration video and then it came out that it was actually like a Hollywood produced Hollywood style produced video
00:46:16
◼
►
That does not actually reflect any hardware they have already
00:46:18
◼
►
So I was just thinking this when you said segue I was thinking like yes
00:46:22
◼
►
Remember how the segue changed the world magic leap is right up there with it. Sorry. That's my segue
00:46:27
◼
►
They there's a some sort of tour here in Philadelphia where you can I don't know if it's I guess it's history historic sites
00:46:35
◼
►
But oh, yeah historic sites are all very close to each other frankly
00:46:40
◼
►
But I see them occasionally where there's obvious tourists with helmets on on segues on a tour
00:46:46
◼
►
You know like usually somewhere around eight to ten of them
00:46:49
◼
►
There's somebody in the front who's clearly the tour leader
00:46:54
◼
►
And it just seems like the dumbest way to get around.
00:46:59
◼
►
Like I do, I love the idea, I'm fascinated by the idea
00:47:04
◼
►
that the thing self-balances on two wheels,
00:47:08
◼
►
but the segues themselves are so stupid.
00:47:11
◼
►
- Oh yeah, I mean, I just remember the whole,
00:47:13
◼
►
the breathless, it's gonna change the world,
00:47:15
◼
►
the patent filings are amazing,
00:47:16
◼
►
they think the people investing, like Jeff Bezos,
00:47:19
◼
►
think this will be, change the way cities are built.
00:47:23
◼
►
Steve Jobs trashed it.
00:47:25
◼
►
- Yeah, I'm not surprised.
00:47:26
◼
►
It's like, eh, and it's a really cool scooter
00:47:28
◼
►
that has certain applications, it's done pretty well.
00:47:31
◼
►
Anyway, I'm sorry to interrupt,
00:47:32
◼
►
but Magic Leap just got me with that.
00:47:35
◼
►
Like they thought no one was gonna figure out
00:47:36
◼
►
it was a faked or produced demonstration.
00:47:39
◼
►
- Do you know what I got?
00:47:41
◼
►
I have the Google Pixel.
00:47:45
◼
►
- Yeah, oh yeah, yeah. - Pixel phone.
00:47:47
◼
►
And I got the VR headset, I forget what the,
00:47:51
◼
►
I forget what the, I can't remember what the name of it.
00:47:53
◼
►
They have a Daydream.
00:47:55
◼
►
I haven't used it a lot yet, but it's pretty neat.
00:48:00
◼
►
I mean, I forget how much I paid for the headset,
00:48:02
◼
►
but it wasn't too much.
00:48:04
◼
►
I mean, once you've bought the phone for $800
00:48:06
◼
►
or whatever it costs, the $75 headset is a neat add-on.
00:48:11
◼
►
It's really pretty good.
00:48:13
◼
►
Although it does, Jonas was really into it,
00:48:17
◼
►
but it does get hot.
00:48:19
◼
►
It eventually tells you that it couches.
00:48:24
◼
►
It's sort of like, remember when the Wii would tell you
00:48:27
◼
►
to take a break, the Nintendo Wii?
00:48:29
◼
►
- Yeah, oh yeah, yeah.
00:48:31
◼
►
- It told Jonas to take a break,
00:48:33
◼
►
but it wasn't really for his well-being.
00:48:35
◼
►
It was because the phone had overheated
00:48:38
◼
►
and needed to cool down.
00:48:40
◼
►
But it's actually pretty good.
00:48:41
◼
►
The latency is really, really good.
00:48:43
◼
►
Like, I was, what I thought was wondering
00:48:44
◼
►
if it would pick up.
00:48:46
◼
►
But I can also completely see why Apple
00:48:49
◼
►
hasn't built such a thing.
00:48:51
◼
►
That's not ready yet.
00:48:52
◼
►
They want the thing.
00:48:53
◼
►
They want the thing whatever magically intends to make,
00:48:56
◼
►
which they may not be able to achieve.
00:48:59
◼
►
That's what Apple would prefer.
00:49:02
◼
►
I don't-- it baffles me that people don't see this in Apple.
00:49:06
◼
►
So one of the things when people complain about the new MacBook
00:49:09
◼
►
Pros, that they're not pro enough,
00:49:12
◼
►
that they're not performance heavy enough.
00:49:14
◼
►
Like, they're like, other companies are making laptops
00:49:17
◼
►
that you can drive high-end VR helmets from.
00:49:21
◼
►
And it's like, well, that's, of course they are,
00:49:26
◼
►
'cause that's what the PC industry always does,
00:49:30
◼
►
is build whatever, you know.
00:49:32
◼
►
That's why gaming PCs exist, that the PC,
00:49:36
◼
►
for some people, it's just a generic box
00:49:38
◼
►
that you can use it to drive any computing task you want.
00:49:41
◼
►
That is not what Apple does.
00:49:44
◼
►
Apple doesn't make generic boxes that you can make other things from.
00:49:47
◼
►
If Apple's going to make a VR helmet, the VR helmet itself will be the computer,
00:49:52
◼
►
and it will have the graphics and screen that it needs to be--
00:49:57
◼
►
That makes a lot of sense.
00:50:00
◼
►
They're not going to work on making the phone into a jerry-rigged VR screen,
00:50:06
◼
►
even though it's possible.
00:50:07
◼
►
And the Pixel thing is good enough that it's neat.
00:50:10
◼
►
But it's, you know, you can also, it's also, it's not retina resolution. I mean, you can totally see the pixels of the things that you're, that you're seeing.
00:50:18
◼
►
And it's, you know, it's just clunky to stick your phone into a helmet. And same way that it's clunky to have a helmet that's literally tethered to a laptop computer.
00:50:29
◼
►
Like, maybe if you hold your watch up really close to your face, it'll simulate, no, I'm sorry. But no, I think you're right. I think it's unlikely.
00:50:37
◼
►
Apple makes an operating system that is capable of being adapted to a lot of different circumstances,
00:50:45
◼
►
but they don't make hardware that has general purpose. I mean, I think that's the MacBook
00:50:49
◼
►
Pro is really more of a niche computer now. It doesn't have the same general appeal.
00:50:55
◼
►
I've been saying that about the 12-inch MacBook since it was released. It's not like the MacBook
00:50:59
◼
►
Air, which was for a lot of people. The 12-inch MacBook is more particular because it makes
00:51:04
◼
►
you make choices and if it doesn't fit your needs then it's not the laptop for you and
00:51:07
◼
►
the MacBook Pro is much more restrained or restricted than the previous models of MacBook
00:51:16
◼
►
But speaking of those…
00:51:17
◼
►
So you wrote a review this week of this Nuertech NuPower, N-U-P-O-W-E-R. I've already got
00:51:24
◼
►
a link in the show notes. NuPower, it's a 60 watt power adapter that has two outputs.
00:51:31
◼
►
One of them is a USB-A, the old school USB, and then the other one is USB-C. And you can
00:51:36
◼
►
use them at the same time.
00:51:38
◼
►
So you could plug this into the wall and then take your existing cable you charge your phone
00:51:45
◼
►
with, the rectangular USB-A, plug that in, plug your phone in, and then with a new 13
00:51:53
◼
►
inch MacBook Pro or the just plain MacBook, you could charge that from the USB-C at the
00:51:59
◼
►
Yeah, it's pretty slick and it comes with a six foot AC cable. So you're using your six foot
00:52:04
◼
►
USB-C charging cable that came with the MacBook or MacBook Pro you have you know 12 feet suddenly if you want that from Apple you
00:52:11
◼
►
Have to pay a the adapter is I think more ungainly
00:52:14
◼
►
B you have to pay if you don't have one around you got to pay I think it's $20 or $90 to get the six foot
00:52:21
◼
►
Extension for the power adapter that comes with your with your Apple laptop, so I like that
00:52:26
◼
►
I mean, so right, so it's like a cable, it's kind of like an offset.
00:52:30
◼
►
So if you've got a 12-inch MacBook, it's sort of ideal because you plug this in to one port
00:52:34
◼
►
and you plug in your, you know, iPad or iPhone to charge the new power thing, and you also
00:52:40
◼
►
have six foot of cable beyond that, so you can have your cable, you know, your Type-A
00:52:45
◼
►
to whatever cable, and your laptop cable, and a long AC cable, and it's 50 bucks for
00:52:51
◼
►
the whole thing.
00:52:52
◼
►
I think it's a great replacement or traveling alternative because it seems to fit all these
00:52:58
◼
►
And 60 watts is an interesting number because it's clear they design it more around, they're
00:53:02
◼
►
like 45 watt PCs that this also works with.
00:53:07
◼
►
It works with anything with USB-C charging, power delivery 2.0 is the spec, which is a
00:53:12
◼
►
lot of devices.
00:53:13
◼
►
And so the, you know, the MacBook, 12 inch MacBook is 29 watts.
00:53:16
◼
►
There's some 45 watt laptops and so forth.
00:53:19
◼
►
The MacBook Pro 13-inch models are 61 watts.
00:53:23
◼
►
- Yeah, which is crazy, right?
00:53:25
◼
►
Where, what? - Yeah.
00:53:26
◼
►
- I don't understand that.
00:53:27
◼
►
- Apple's very specific about how they like
00:53:29
◼
►
to map batteries to charging,
00:53:30
◼
►
and they just do exactly what they want.
00:53:33
◼
►
- Well, it's the first one I can think of, though,
00:53:34
◼
►
that's such an odd number.
00:53:36
◼
►
Like, the-- - Well, no, the MacBook
00:53:37
◼
►
is a 29-watt charger.
00:53:38
◼
►
- Oh, I guess you're right.
00:53:39
◼
►
- And the MacBook Pro is 87 watts,
00:53:41
◼
►
and somebody told me, I didn't look this up,
00:53:43
◼
►
that the previous MacBook Pro, the 15-inch one, I'm sorry,
00:53:45
◼
►
was also 87 watts.
00:53:47
◼
►
So they have a very specific power profile.
00:53:51
◼
►
They don't like to make a generic charging thing.
00:53:53
◼
►
So the new power is probably not appropriate
00:53:57
◼
►
for a 15-inch MacBook Pro because it will be hard
00:53:59
◼
►
for it to keep up if you're doing anything
00:54:00
◼
►
that's pulling power down.
00:54:01
◼
►
For the 13-inch, it'll keep up almost as quickly.
00:54:05
◼
►
I mean, it's 3% off.
00:54:07
◼
►
So it will charge while you're using it,
00:54:09
◼
►
and it might charge a tiny bit slower.
00:54:11
◼
►
If you plug in a USB Type-A device to charge,
00:54:15
◼
►
it'll take away from the charging
00:54:16
◼
►
going to the USB-C port.
00:54:19
◼
►
So if you're charging an iPad at 2.4 amps,
00:54:22
◼
►
that's 12 watts at five volts.
00:54:24
◼
►
And that, so that'll be, you know,
00:54:25
◼
►
12 watts would be subtracted from the 60
00:54:28
◼
►
if you're doing that and you have a 13-inch MacBook.
00:54:30
◼
►
But I think in a lot of cases,
00:54:31
◼
►
it's a really nice alternative.
00:54:32
◼
►
And it's got, you know, it's not a square little thing.
00:54:35
◼
►
It's like longer, it looks more like a traditional one,
00:54:38
◼
►
but it's very lightweight and it's got rounded edges.
00:54:40
◼
►
- Only thing I think I don't like about it though
00:54:41
◼
►
is I don't like that to plug this into the wall,
00:54:44
◼
►
you have to use a cable.
00:54:46
◼
►
It has, you know, it's one of the,
00:54:48
◼
►
so this is the brick, but it's,
00:54:50
◼
►
you plug a power cable into the back,
00:54:52
◼
►
and then it's a six-foot cable that goes to the wall.
00:54:54
◼
►
So like, there are some cases,
00:54:56
◼
►
some situations where you do want that,
00:54:58
◼
►
but there's others, like when you're,
00:54:59
◼
►
like when I'm in a hotel,
00:55:01
◼
►
usually most hotels now have like a desk
00:55:04
◼
►
where there is like a power on the desk.
00:55:07
◼
►
And it's not, you know, like I don't need it.
00:55:09
◼
►
The six-foot cable is just gonna be in the way there.
00:55:11
◼
►
Like I kind of-- - No, it's true.
00:55:12
◼
►
- I wish that I could just plug it right in, you know,
00:55:15
◼
►
like it had the prongs on the thing.
00:55:18
◼
►
- That's true, I think that's the drawback,
00:55:19
◼
►
is if that's what you want,
00:55:21
◼
►
then you can always carry the original one.
00:55:23
◼
►
But no, I think that is the drawback,
00:55:26
◼
►
'cause you get extra cable that way with that option.
00:55:28
◼
►
But I think, and I have that same issue,
00:55:31
◼
►
although I'll get to a hotel,
00:55:32
◼
►
and by the time I got stuff plugged in,
00:55:33
◼
►
or if you're gonna wanna work,
00:55:34
◼
►
I'm often hunting around for an AC outlet.
00:55:37
◼
►
And some of them have power strips,
00:55:38
◼
►
I bet in some newer, or not newer hotels,
00:55:39
◼
►
but retrograde ones, power strips.
00:55:41
◼
►
- Right, or maybe it would be nice if it,
00:55:43
◼
►
again, this would obviously make it a lot physically bigger.
00:55:46
◼
►
So maybe I'm not thinking it through,
00:55:49
◼
►
but it might be nice if it had one of those cables
00:55:51
◼
►
that you could like, it would retract,
00:55:53
◼
►
you know, like the way like most vacuum cleaners work now,
00:55:56
◼
►
you can retract the cable.
00:55:58
◼
►
- Oh yeah, we're gonna see a lot more USB-C chargers too.
00:56:01
◼
►
I mean, it's taken the power delivery spec.
00:56:04
◼
►
So I actually interviewed for an article
00:56:05
◼
►
that's gonna come out in Fast Company about USB-C,
00:56:08
◼
►
like why it's so hard to figure out what cables are good.
00:56:11
◼
►
Like why isn't there some group?
00:56:13
◼
►
I mean, my conclusion, spoiler, is that the death of magazine test labs is basically why
00:56:18
◼
►
we're having problems with USB-C. Like, it's not – so, I talked to the head of the USB
00:56:21
◼
►
implementers forum, the USB-IF and the chief operating officer, and had a great talk about
00:56:26
◼
►
like where does Type-C fit into the ecosystem and what are you guys responsible for? Like,
00:56:30
◼
►
where does your point end? And one of the things the president told me is he said really
00:56:36
◼
►
frankly, this isn't your grandma and grandpa's USB 2.0. He said it's much more complicated,
00:56:42
◼
►
and we're seeing more problems because it's a
00:56:45
◼
►
much more complicated and difficult spec.
00:56:46
◼
►
It does so much more.
00:56:47
◼
►
And so, they're not surprised, but it's what
00:56:49
◼
►
manufacturers want.
00:56:50
◼
►
It's not like the USBIF invented a difficult spec
00:56:54
◼
►
and it's being inflicted on customers.
00:56:56
◼
►
It's like all of the major computer and mobile
00:56:58
◼
►
makers are all involved with USBIF or they're on
00:57:01
◼
►
the board or they're deeply involved in the
00:57:03
◼
►
standards process.
00:57:04
◼
►
They wanted this to happen.
00:57:05
◼
►
Ultimately, in a couple years, maybe a year,
00:57:07
◼
►
we're all going to be delighted that we have,
00:57:10
◼
►
maybe we still have lightning, but we're
00:57:11
◼
►
of lightning, that seems like it's going to happen, but we have one cable and one thing
00:57:15
◼
►
that works every goddamn place, and then new displays will all have USB-C support, and
00:57:20
◼
►
new everything will have it, and we'll say, "Why do we make such a big deal about this?"
00:57:25
◼
►
Because the pain of transition and finding the adapters that don't exist and legacy support
00:57:30
◼
►
is a pain, but I think it's really a net positive for it.
00:57:35
◼
►
And so the power part is particularly difficult.
00:57:36
◼
►
There's something called Power Delivery 2.0, which is, as far as I can tell, is the first
00:57:41
◼
►
widespread implementation in products of a non-proprietary,
00:57:45
◼
►
standards-based, but trade group-owned,
00:57:47
◼
►
but non-proprietary spec for doing power
00:57:50
◼
►
that's above like 15 to 30 watts.
00:57:52
◼
►
It can go up to 100 watts.
00:57:54
◼
►
There are previous USB specs that allowed this,
00:57:56
◼
►
but from what I can tell,
00:57:57
◼
►
I don't know that many devices use them.
00:57:59
◼
►
They're very specific and you need a specific adapter.
00:58:02
◼
►
This is the first generic way that's already in millions
00:58:05
◼
►
or maybe even tens of millions of shipping products
00:58:07
◼
►
that supports above 12 or 15 watts.
00:58:10
◼
►
a standard way and interoperable, interchangeable adapters. So, the ecosystem I think is about
00:58:15
◼
►
to sort of like, the chipset issue is a big deal. Every, John, you know this, right, like
00:58:21
◼
►
lightning, every lightning and Thunderbolt 2 cable had a computer in the tip of every
00:58:26
◼
►
cable, right?
00:58:27
◼
►
Pete: Right.
00:58:28
◼
►
I did know that.
00:58:29
◼
►
Pete: And so, the same thing is true with USB-C and that makes it more complicated.
00:58:30
◼
►
It's all, USB-C is like, you're plugging a computer that looks like a cable into your
00:58:35
◼
►
computer's port that has a controller and they have to talk to each other. And so, like,
00:58:39
◼
►
that right means the controller chipsets and the USB-C cable chipsets all have to
00:58:45
◼
►
be in this incredibly perfect alignment and that is I think what's been taking
00:58:49
◼
►
so long and we're starting to finally see the benefits of it you know already
00:58:52
◼
►
like a almost two years into the rollout and next year will be very different.
00:58:57
◼
►
I think one of the underestimated easily overlooked but fascinating to me the
00:59:03
◼
►
things that's going on in hardware everywhere today.
00:59:08
◼
►
Whether you're in the consumer electronics business in the car
00:59:14
◼
►
business, everything is that every individual component is
00:59:21
◼
►
slowly but surely turning into its own to being a computer. I
00:59:25
◼
►
know, right? Oh, you're totally right. And I know Joanna Stern
00:59:27
◼
►
and I talked about this on about the Mac, but about the touch
00:59:30
◼
►
But it's fascinating to me.
00:59:33
◼
►
Every time I look at this review unit and I just think about it,
00:59:36
◼
►
it just pleases me to no end that the Touch Bar is an iOS
00:59:40
◼
►
computer in my Mac computer.
00:59:44
◼
►
I find it just makes me smile.
00:59:47
◼
►
It just cracks me up.
00:59:48
◼
►
Because just like we were talking about half an hour ago,
00:59:51
◼
►
like when we were kids, a computer was super expensive.
00:59:57
◼
►
And you'd get like 64 kilobytes of memory, and it was enough money.
01:00:04
◼
►
And it was a lot of money, and you had to be very careful, and it was quite large.
01:00:10
◼
►
And now there's a much better computer than that in the tip of your Lightning cable.
01:00:15
◼
►
The analog-to-Lightning adapter has a GSP in it.
01:00:19
◼
►
I mean, it's a $9 cable, and that computer is probably more powerful than my first personal
01:00:24
◼
►
maybe even my second person.
01:00:26
◼
►
I mean, could it do, is it as powerful as a Commodore 64?
01:00:29
◼
►
Maybe not, I'm not sure, but it's certainly
01:00:32
◼
►
as powerful as my first computer.
01:00:33
◼
►
- In some ways, it surely is.
01:00:35
◼
►
There are certain, some aspects of it
01:00:37
◼
►
that are surely faster than a Commodore 64.
01:00:40
◼
►
- Well, this is like storage.
01:00:41
◼
►
How many terabytes of storage do you own now, personally?
01:00:44
◼
►
- I don't even know.
01:00:45
◼
►
- You don't even know.
01:00:46
◼
►
I have at least, I don't know, I've got seven or eight
01:00:47
◼
►
lying around, maybe more, and I probably got
01:00:49
◼
►
two or three terabytes in the cloud,
01:00:51
◼
►
and we are gonna laugh at how small it is,
01:00:53
◼
►
that is, like the way that 50 gigabytes seems ridiculously tiny. Like, I backed up 80 gigs,
01:01:00
◼
►
I added more, I use Backblaze for my desktop machine backup, and I'm like, "Oh, you know,
01:01:05
◼
►
I didn't have this part of this drive backed up." So, I add it, it says, "Oh, that's 80 gigs,
01:01:09
◼
►
I got gigabit internet." It added it in like an hour or something. And it just seems so laughably
01:01:14
◼
►
small, even though it's enormous. And so, you know, in five years, we'll have like 50 terabytes
01:01:18
◼
►
of storage and we won't be thinking about it much either.
01:01:22
◼
►
Gets bigger, everything gets bigger, faster, better.
01:01:25
◼
►
- Let me take a break and we'll come back to that
01:01:30
◼
►
because one of the computers in our computers now
01:01:34
◼
►
are the computer that's inside AirPods,
01:01:37
◼
►
which still haven't shipped and I'd like to talk about that.
01:01:40
◼
►
- Oh yeah, yeah.
01:01:41
◼
►
- I'm gonna take a break here and thank our next sponsor
01:01:44
◼
►
and it's our good friends at Fracture.
01:01:47
◼
►
You know Fracture, it's the photo company
01:01:48
◼
►
that you send them your photos,
01:01:50
◼
►
they print your photos directly on class.
01:01:51
◼
►
They sponsored the show two episodes ago
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◼
►
and I told you then, I told you,
01:01:56
◼
►
order now for the holidays
01:01:58
◼
►
because they're gonna get backed up.
01:02:00
◼
►
Well guess what, they're already backed up.
01:02:02
◼
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Orders placed today are shipped after Christmas.
01:02:05
◼
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We are recording, you're hearing us record
01:02:07
◼
►
on Friday, December 9th.
01:02:10
◼
►
I'll bet the show comes out on Saturday, December 10th.
01:02:13
◼
►
So whatever point you're listening to me tell you this, if you were going to get people
01:02:18
◼
►
fracture gifts for Christmas, you had a great idea.
01:02:21
◼
►
And if you didn't order them already, I'm really sorry to tell you that you're too late.
01:02:24
◼
►
But what you can do, what you can do is you can order gift cards from fracture.
01:02:32
◼
►
You can give them, you can give out a gift card so that people can print their own fractures.
01:02:37
◼
►
And you could do that all the way up to December 19th and still get Christmas delivery.
01:02:42
◼
►
So you could still do it.
01:02:43
◼
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You're not totally shit out of luck.
01:02:47
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These are great, great products.
01:02:49
◼
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So again, if you're thinking about it for Christmas, too late, hope you listened to
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◼
►
me last time.
01:02:53
◼
►
Some of you probably did.
01:02:55
◼
►
But it's such a great product.
01:02:56
◼
►
Holiday aside, Fracture is just the best way, really is.
01:03:02
◼
►
I would say this even if they weren't a long-time sponsor of the show, but if you want to print
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◼
►
your photos, it's the best way to do it because there's no fuss and they look great.
01:03:13
◼
►
looks better than putting it on paper and then putting it into a traditional frame.
01:03:17
◼
►
It looks better and it's easier to deal with because if you've ever done the thing where
01:03:21
◼
►
you go to Ikea and get a picture frame and then you have a picture printed out and you
01:03:26
◼
►
put it in and then you secure the back and then you look at the front and the picture's
01:03:29
◼
►
off by like two degrees and you've got to undo the whole thing and put it back in. What
01:03:34
◼
►
a pain in the ass.
01:03:36
◼
►
Fractures are just printed right on the glass and they ship in this super clever little
01:03:40
◼
►
cardboard thing that comes with everything you need to hang it on a wall or to prop it
01:03:45
◼
►
up on your desk or on a mantle or wherever you want to put it. And it looks so cool because
01:03:50
◼
►
it's just this edge to edge design. There is no frame that's necessary. It's just a
01:03:54
◼
►
piece of glass with the picture edge to edge. Looks so great. So go check them out. Get
01:04:03
◼
►
your own pictures printed. Pick up some gift cards if you want to for the holidays and
01:04:08
◼
►
haven't ordered already, and go to fractureme.com/podcast. That's the name, that's the URL. They don't
01:04:17
◼
►
care which podcast. Everybody's podcast gets the same URL. But then, when you order, they
01:04:23
◼
►
ask a one-question survey, which is, "Where did you hear a fracture from?" And you can
01:04:26
◼
►
tell them you heard about it right here on the talk show. My thanks to Fracture. Told
01:04:31
◼
►
you it was going to be—they're going to get backed up. Listen to me next time.
01:04:35
◼
►
Love their stuff. I need to order some but I didn't need them for presents. I got a I'm gonna remember that so airbrite
01:04:40
◼
►
You know air pods still haven't shipped as I said, we are recording on Friday December 9th
01:04:45
◼
►
And so it's like HBO and Westworld. They had a stock production. They had a reengineer the world to Apple and Apple's and they're getting
01:04:52
◼
►
Very close to being to missing the holidays. I have heard just in the last 24 hours
01:04:59
◼
►
I have heard not from like a very well-placed little birdie, but from a birdie
01:05:04
◼
►
that there's a possibility that there are whispers in Apple,
01:05:09
◼
►
among people who work in Apple retail,
01:05:11
◼
►
that they might actually come in quote unquote
01:05:13
◼
►
the next few days.
01:05:15
◼
►
- Oh my God. - But nobody has,
01:05:16
◼
►
but I asked and I was like, well, is it like a token amount?
01:05:20
◼
►
Like, well, some of them are coming
01:05:22
◼
►
and we're gonna sell them to some people,
01:05:24
◼
►
but you've got no chance of actually getting one
01:05:26
◼
►
because they're gonna be instantly back ordered
01:05:28
◼
►
six to eight weeks.
01:05:29
◼
►
Is it that type of shipping?
01:05:31
◼
►
Or is it like you have a reasonable chance of getting them,
01:05:36
◼
►
walking into an Apple store and walking out with AirPods?
01:05:41
◼
►
And the answer was no idea.
01:05:44
◼
►
This is, in my opinion, the biggest Apple
01:05:51
◼
►
screw up in recent memory.
01:05:54
◼
►
- I gotta agree, 'cause, so, let me,
01:05:58
◼
►
I'm gonna bump up one level. - The only thing I can
01:05:59
◼
►
- I'll compare it to one other thing,
01:06:02
◼
►
and I think that this is worse,
01:06:03
◼
►
is the, I think it was the white iPhone 4.
01:06:12
◼
►
- So when the iPhone 4 came out,
01:06:14
◼
►
that was the one with the glass front and back,
01:06:17
◼
►
and I think that was the one that didn't ship, right?
01:06:22
◼
►
And it kind of got lost, I think,
01:06:25
◼
►
in the shuffle of Antennagate,
01:06:27
◼
►
because that was the phone that had Antennagate.
01:06:29
◼
►
- That's right.
01:06:31
◼
►
- It was supposed to, there were black ones and white ones,
01:06:33
◼
►
and the white ones, the black ones came out in June
01:06:38
◼
►
on schedule, and then Apple said something to the effect
01:06:41
◼
►
of we're having a little problem with the white production,
01:06:43
◼
►
we expect them in July, like one month late.
01:06:46
◼
►
And July came and went, and then Antennagate hit,
01:06:50
◼
►
and everybody remembered that.
01:06:51
◼
►
But the white iPhones didn't ship until May,
01:06:56
◼
►
the next year, April or May, like almost a full year.
01:06:59
◼
►
And I remember it vividly because my wife wanted
01:07:03
◼
►
to get the white one and she waited.
01:07:07
◼
►
And then by the time it got to April or May,
01:07:09
◼
►
she was like, well, I'm not stupid,
01:07:11
◼
►
I'm not gonna buy a new iPhone now,
01:07:12
◼
►
the new one's come out.
01:07:13
◼
►
Even though the 4S, that was when they first moved
01:07:16
◼
►
the schedule back from June to like September.
01:07:20
◼
►
So she ended up with her, I think she was using her 3GS
01:07:23
◼
►
or whatever for two years.
01:07:25
◼
►
But I would say this is a worse mistake because at least with the iPhone 4, if you wanted an iPhone 4 you could get it, you just didn't get it in the color you wanted.
01:07:35
◼
►
Whereas if you want AirPods, you can't get them.
01:07:40
◼
►
Yeah, this is, it seems bad to introduce something that is a fundamental part of a major change
01:07:49
◼
►
you're making and then not have the engineering and production in place to release it. Seems
01:07:54
◼
►
like a big F up. I was gonna say, I want to bump up one level, not to avoid the topic,
01:08:01
◼
►
but I mean, there's always this metaphor. Like, you know, Apple is Hillary Clinton,
01:08:06
◼
►
Samsung is Trump, right? You know, without even a political discussion, it's kind of
01:08:09
◼
►
And so, Apple removes headphones and you have think pieces and whatever.
01:08:13
◼
►
You posted something about this other day.
01:08:15
◼
►
Samsung says, "We're not going to have a headphone jack."
01:08:18
◼
►
I'm sorry, headphone jack, rather.
01:08:19
◼
►
Samsung says, "We're not going to have a headphone jack on our next flagship phone."
01:08:22
◼
►
Everyone's like, "Well, it's just Samsung, right?
01:08:25
◼
►
You're like, "But wait, but you're so angry!
01:08:27
◼
►
Why were you so angry?
01:08:28
◼
►
Like, it's a technology company.
01:08:29
◼
►
It's a decision.
01:08:30
◼
►
There's all these trade-offs.
01:08:31
◼
►
Why were you so, like, furious?
01:08:33
◼
►
Like, there was white-hot fury about it."
01:08:35
◼
►
And you could argue it's because there's more of an emotional connection with the iPhone
01:08:38
◼
►
with the iPhone and there are fewer models
01:08:41
◼
►
and there is not that emotional connection with Samsung,
01:08:44
◼
►
but it is sort of hilarious.
01:08:45
◼
►
But if you're gonna take the headphone jack out
01:08:47
◼
►
and you're gonna deal with the repercussion
01:08:49
◼
►
'cause you know people have been keyed up
01:08:51
◼
►
to be angry for weeks and months
01:08:52
◼
►
as the rumors are out there,
01:08:54
◼
►
there is something desperately wrong with that.
01:08:56
◼
►
Something very bad happened to reach this point.
01:08:58
◼
►
I mean, 'cause--
01:08:59
◼
►
- There's no doubt in my mind.
01:09:00
◼
►
I've talked to several people, you know,
01:09:04
◼
►
I can't say with 100% certainty,
01:09:05
◼
►
but I'm as certain as I could be
01:09:07
◼
►
that there was absolutely zero coincidence to the fact
01:09:11
◼
►
that the iPhone 7 is the first iPhone
01:09:14
◼
►
without the headphone jack
01:09:16
◼
►
and was introduced alongside AirPods and W1 chip.
01:09:21
◼
►
That was completely in coordination.
01:09:22
◼
►
AirPods-- - They wanted
01:09:23
◼
►
to ship simultaneously.
01:09:24
◼
►
- AirPods were in development for three years.
01:09:27
◼
►
Engineering and design started three years ago
01:09:31
◼
►
and it was a year ago when they felt like they were
01:09:34
◼
►
at the point where they can say,
01:09:35
◼
►
yes, these will be ready in September 2016.
01:09:39
◼
►
Therefore, we can go ahead with this design of the iPhone that
01:09:44
◼
►
doesn't have the headphone jack and this, that,
01:09:47
◼
►
and the other thing, or now we can make the camera bigger
01:09:50
◼
►
and move the battery down.
01:09:51
◼
►
And all the other side effects of being
01:09:54
◼
►
able to remove the headphone jack
01:09:57
◼
►
was completely in coordination.
01:09:59
◼
►
And yes, they did not.
01:10:00
◼
►
And they knew then--
01:10:02
◼
►
I didn't know.
01:10:03
◼
►
But Apple knew that they were relatively expensive
01:10:06
◼
►
and therefore were not going to be included in the box.
01:10:10
◼
►
So even though they're not in the box and cost $150,
01:10:18
◼
►
and therefore-- which is a lot to pay for headphones
01:10:22
◼
►
by most people's standards.
01:10:23
◼
►
And therefore, they knew it's not
01:10:25
◼
►
going to be like everybody with an iPhone 7
01:10:27
◼
►
is going to spend $150 for AirPods.
01:10:30
◼
►
it was absolutely in lockstep with each other,
01:10:34
◼
►
that they weren't going to ship a phone without a headphone
01:10:36
◼
►
jack without the new wireless AirPods,
01:10:40
◼
►
and they weren't going to ship the AirPods
01:10:42
◼
►
with a flagship phone that still has the headphone jack.
01:10:47
◼
►
And so I think if Apple knew--
01:10:49
◼
►
I really do think so.
01:10:53
◼
►
I think if they knew that they were
01:10:54
◼
►
going to be as late as they are, I
01:10:56
◼
►
don't think that they would have removed the headphone jack
01:10:59
◼
►
Well, remember, if you look at the design of the phone, am I wrong? My recollection
01:11:03
◼
►
is after the teardowns came out that both phones have technically have room for a headphone
01:11:09
◼
►
jack, so they must have given themselves—and there's a space where it could have gone,
01:11:13
◼
►
so they must have given themselves wiggle room at some point.
01:11:16
◼
►
I thought there was room for it.
01:11:18
◼
►
No, well, I guess—
01:11:19
◼
►
There's a space where—well, maybe I'm wrong. I was wondering how much wiggle room
01:11:23
◼
►
they gave them, because they have to lock in the circuit board design and everything
01:11:26
◼
►
else, you know.
01:11:27
◼
►
in very far in advance. Like, whatever they're coming out with next year is already completely locked in.
01:11:32
◼
►
I feel terrible for whoever on the team, whichever people on the team at whichever levels from top to bottom,
01:11:39
◼
►
either made an error in judgment or just were ahead of—I mean, this is the thing. So, this will seem
01:11:47
◼
►
like a sidebar. I'll be brief with it. But, you know, I wrote a piece in March, I think, for Macworld about
01:11:52
◼
►
why you should probably not become a backer of Kickstarter and other
01:11:56
◼
►
crowdfunding projects
01:11:58
◼
►
involved mass manufacture items that aren't totally interchangeable and known
01:12:02
◼
►
like a book like everyone knows how to print a book
01:12:05
◼
►
public in a brick book printer could be late but they don't suddenly say we
01:12:08
◼
►
don't know how to put ink on pages we try to put the ink on the pages and the
01:12:12
◼
►
ink fell off and we have to work with you to develop a new way
01:12:16
◼
►
to put ink on paper because the one you propose doesn't work
01:12:19
◼
►
So, that typically doesn't happen.
01:12:21
◼
►
It happens constantly in the production of,
01:12:26
◼
►
especially electronics, but a lot of things where,
01:12:29
◼
►
if you follow the folks at Studio Neat,
01:12:30
◼
►
they have a great podcast that Mike Hurley is hosting,
01:12:33
◼
►
where the two guys, Dan Provost and,
01:12:35
◼
►
my black hair's name, and Tom Gerhart,
01:12:40
◼
►
the two of them, these wonderful guys.
01:12:42
◼
►
I've met them so many times,
01:12:43
◼
►
I'd be embarrassed to make them their names.
01:12:46
◼
►
Well, they're lovely people, they do really good products,
01:12:48
◼
►
really interesting stuff they make, and they have a podcast about making their latest thing and
01:12:52
◼
►
talking about it, and it's really fascinating because you get the insight into people who do
01:12:56
◼
►
have a, you know, a moderate-sized company but not a very big one, and what the constraints are when
01:13:01
◼
►
you're doing all of these manufacturing things. So, I'm just sort of backing it out into the like,
01:13:08
◼
►
like, so I understand from talking to people at sort of Dan and Tom's level, and some folks in
01:13:13
◼
►
bigger corporations when they'll talk more frankly about like, just what happens when you get from
01:13:17
◼
►
there's a stage between, I think you've written about it too,
01:13:20
◼
►
there's been people that have written articles
01:13:22
◼
►
about this, of course, between like prototype
01:13:23
◼
►
and production, there's this thing where you deliver stuff,
01:13:26
◼
►
you work to get something that's closer and closer
01:13:27
◼
►
to what's actually going on in a production line,
01:13:29
◼
►
then there's a point in which you make units
01:13:31
◼
►
on the production line and they work,
01:13:33
◼
►
and then you go into this full scale thing
01:13:34
◼
►
in which there's QA and QC for,
01:13:37
◼
►
or QC for the products coming off the line, right?
01:13:39
◼
►
And it's horrible, and the fact that any consumer
01:13:43
◼
►
electronics company can produce things routinely
01:13:45
◼
►
on any schedule is always amazing.
01:13:47
◼
►
So Apple's track record is really good.
01:13:49
◼
►
So is Note 7 excluded, but sort of part of it.
01:13:53
◼
►
So is Samsung.
01:13:54
◼
►
So are a lot of other companies
01:13:56
◼
►
that just produce huge numbers of new models of things
01:13:59
◼
►
and they're super complicated.
01:14:00
◼
►
- Even with the Note 7, the problem wasn't with production.
01:14:04
◼
►
The problem was with the design.
01:14:05
◼
►
I mean, that's--
01:14:06
◼
►
- Right, they made a bad choice.
01:14:07
◼
►
- Right, I mean, I've read enough articles from people
01:14:10
◼
►
who've taken it apart. - No, you're totally right.
01:14:12
◼
►
- Everybody's in near unanimous agreement
01:14:15
◼
►
about what's wrong.
01:14:16
◼
►
put too big of a battery in too small of a space and therefore led to the positive and
01:14:21
◼
►
negative sides touching it under physical strain.
01:14:25
◼
►
And they, you know, the post-mortem's going to be they should have realized this in the
01:14:29
◼
►
prototyping stage well in advance of going to production and done something about it.
01:14:32
◼
►
But so when I—so, you know, you know all those things. There's this mystery, though.
01:14:36
◼
►
This is what I think Dan and Tom get at well in their podcasts, and you can read stories
01:14:39
◼
►
about this all over. Like, there's this incredible thing about—we know, and I think
01:14:43
◼
►
It's one thing that Johnny Ives does really well.
01:14:45
◼
►
It's something that I think Tim Cook, as coming from that deep knowledge of the supply chain,
01:14:50
◼
►
and you know, it kind of got him onto the CEO path, understanding how you bring different
01:14:55
◼
►
things together and what is feasible.
01:14:58
◼
►
Kazanami used to consult on this for high-tech companies, where he would look at what they
01:15:01
◼
►
had in the lab, he would look at what their customers actually wanted, and he would help
01:15:05
◼
►
them match those things together, what was feasible and what people wanted, to turn it
01:15:10
◼
►
into something that was manufacturable or producible.
01:15:12
◼
►
It is an incredible art because you're modeling machines in your head that make things on
01:15:20
◼
►
these massive scales.
01:15:21
◼
►
So, it's not surprising this happens from time to time, it's just Apple is so good at,
01:15:26
◼
►
in general, executing it that something went deeply wrong when they thought they could
01:15:30
◼
►
make some part of this and it would work 100% of the time, and they got to it and they're
01:15:34
◼
►
like, "This works 98% of the time."
01:15:35
◼
►
I mean, it could be as, it's probably as little as that, too, based on what the reports were.
01:15:39
◼
►
Yeah, secondhand talking to a friend who has a friend who works on the AirPods team, it is,
01:15:45
◼
►
these things are a bitch to manufacture. And they knew it was going to be, but there's something,
01:15:50
◼
►
you know, some part of, "Hey, we've got a, you know, I'm holding a pair right here in my hands,
01:15:58
◼
►
and I'm not trying to brag, you know, but it's very surprising to me that I, here we are on
01:16:04
◼
►
December 9th, and I've got AirPods and nobody else does."
01:16:07
◼
►
It's that late in the process that—
01:16:09
◼
►
that a problem occurred.
01:16:10
◼
►
- You know, I've got right here in my hands proof
01:16:13
◼
►
that there's somewhere there, there was, you know,
01:16:16
◼
►
by September there was a factory in China
01:16:19
◼
►
that was pushing out very good high quality AirPods.
01:16:24
◼
►
And somehow though, being able to spool that up
01:16:29
◼
►
to punch out the millions of them
01:16:32
◼
►
that they need to punch out, they've run into something.
01:16:35
◼
►
Now again, I've heard that,
01:16:38
◼
►
and this is from a different source, but I've heard that it's possible that by the time you
01:16:42
◼
►
even listen to this, they might be out if you're listening like next week. But I wouldn't be
01:16:46
◼
►
surprised if, you know, they get pushed out to January. Something has gone terribly wrong.
01:16:53
◼
►
Pete: My suspicion, based on the fact that they're able to ship units to you and other reviewers
01:16:57
◼
►
that, from generally reported, you know, I think Matthew Panzareno wrote about this and I think,
01:17:02
◼
►
I think you, I forget what your experience has been. They're reliable in your experience, right?
01:17:06
◼
►
They work pretty much the way you do.
01:17:07
◼
►
if this, they don't work perfectly. Uh, they glitch occasionally, but,
01:17:14
◼
►
if this is as good as the AirPods 1.0 are going to get, if it's, if,
01:17:19
◼
►
if the exact experience that I've had and continue to have with these is exactly
01:17:23
◼
►
what everybody would experience, I would still recommend it wholeheartedly.
01:17:27
◼
►
And I, I would describe these AirPods as is occasional problems included as my
01:17:32
◼
►
favorite new Apple product.
01:17:37
◼
►
I love them.
01:17:38
◼
►
And my suspicion is this is a QC or quality control problem that they turned on the volume,
01:17:43
◼
►
they got production units out, they had some yield issues, but they said we can fix the
01:17:47
◼
►
yields and production.
01:17:50
◼
►
They pulled out the best of them, sent them through viewers, and then they started turning
01:17:53
◼
►
the dial up, and when they turned the dial up, the yield was so poor on which I don't
01:17:58
◼
►
know what their number is.
01:17:59
◼
►
Yeah, I think it's like that.
01:18:00
◼
►
That's what I think it is.
01:18:01
◼
►
Yeah, because they're that far along.
01:18:02
◼
►
If they're making something they can send to you that is not a one-off item, it is something
01:18:05
◼
►
came out of production line, it has to be, it's not a software issue, or yours would
01:18:09
◼
►
be failing all the time too, and so would all the other reviewers.
01:18:11
◼
►
Every once in a while, the problems I've seen, and they're very similar to what Matthew's
01:18:15
◼
►
seen, every once in a while, but it's actually, I use them all the time. They're the only
01:18:20
◼
►
headphones I've used since September, period. Every once in a while, the audio, it just
01:18:29
◼
►
gets a little stuttery. It's like there's some kind of Bluetooth, you know, somehow
01:18:34
◼
►
the wireless signal gets jacked and you know usually you can just take them out put them
01:18:39
◼
►
back in and you know wait a little bit and it fixes itself. Every once in a while one
01:18:47
◼
►
of them drops out and I've got both in but it somehow mistakenly puts itself into oh
01:18:54
◼
►
you just want to use one mode because you can do that you can just put one in and it'll
01:18:58
◼
►
just play through the month even though I have both in like the audio will stop playing
01:19:02
◼
►
to the right one for a little, and then the way to fix it,
01:19:05
◼
►
or at least I've fixed it, is take them both out,
01:19:07
◼
►
put them in the little Tic Tac case, and start over.
01:19:10
◼
►
But it's only happened to me like twice, period.
01:19:14
◼
►
And I think that's it.
01:19:17
◼
►
I mean, that's pretty much the only problems
01:19:19
◼
►
I've had with it.
01:19:20
◼
►
Every once in a while, you know,
01:19:21
◼
►
oh, and the other problem is every once in a while,
01:19:23
◼
►
switching from one device to another,
01:19:26
◼
►
it doesn't go seamlessly.
01:19:28
◼
►
It's not as magic as it should be.
01:19:31
◼
►
That, I think, though, is more of an iOS problem
01:19:34
◼
►
than a problem with the AirPods, I think.
01:19:36
◼
►
I suspect that software, and I've seen that less,
01:19:39
◼
►
so I wouldn't even be surprised
01:19:41
◼
►
if that's actually been fixed in one of the recent,
01:19:44
◼
►
I'm actually running the betas on all my devices.
01:19:49
◼
►
Like, my phone is still running
01:19:51
◼
►
whatever the current developer beta of iOS is.
01:19:53
◼
►
- Oh, yeah, yeah.
01:19:54
◼
►
- So I wouldn't even be surprised.
01:19:55
◼
►
- The 10.2.2, I think, just came out.
01:19:56
◼
►
- I haven't seen that in a few weeks,
01:19:59
◼
►
Although I pretty much just use them with my iPhone too.
01:20:02
◼
►
- This makes me think, you know,
01:20:02
◼
►
actually as I think about it,
01:20:03
◼
►
I realize because they can push so much
01:20:05
◼
►
to software and firmware,
01:20:06
◼
►
my suspicion is even further
01:20:09
◼
►
that it's not a quality control issue.
01:20:10
◼
►
I just realized it's the next level thing,
01:20:12
◼
►
which is they got a bunch of units off,
01:20:14
◼
►
they went through quality control
01:20:15
◼
►
and went through automated testing,
01:20:17
◼
►
they started to pull samples to test,
01:20:19
◼
►
and they found with samples
01:20:21
◼
►
that the defect rate wasn't being determined
01:20:24
◼
►
through automatic testing.
01:20:25
◼
►
And then they started to test more
01:20:26
◼
►
they realized that the defect rate was, whatever the defect was, was wider and more complicated,
01:20:32
◼
►
and that whatever QC process they're using would not be adequate.
01:20:36
◼
►
Because otherwise, excuse me, if they could make some that are good and some that aren't,
01:20:42
◼
►
they would have perhaps made a bunch and shipped out a quantity and said, "Look, we're
01:20:45
◼
►
getting an early amount out.
01:20:46
◼
►
We have manufacturing problems.
01:20:48
◼
►
We're going to catch up.
01:20:49
◼
►
We want to get the people who committed to this earliest.
01:20:51
◼
►
We're going to send the first 100,000 out," right?
01:20:53
◼
►
Because even if they lost 100,000, 100,000 units were bad and 100,000 were good, they
01:20:58
◼
►
might do it because they do like to delight their customers.
01:21:02
◼
►
That's one thing they do.
01:21:03
◼
►
So my thinking is they couldn't even get a yield or reliability high enough that made
01:21:08
◼
►
them confident they could ship out any numbers in quantity until this.
01:21:12
◼
►
And they also tend to know when they're going to catch up.
01:21:21
◼
►
So for example, with Apple Watch,
01:21:23
◼
►
Apple Watch, the original one,
01:21:26
◼
►
launched and couldn't meet demand.
01:21:30
◼
►
Not even close.
01:21:31
◼
►
But their estimates were, if anything,
01:21:35
◼
►
under-promising and over-delivering.
01:21:37
◼
►
So like if you ordered an Apple Watch
01:21:41
◼
►
right when they first started taking orders
01:21:43
◼
►
and your preferred model said six to eight weeks,
01:21:47
◼
►
you probably got it in like five weeks.
01:21:51
◼
►
It seemed, you know, and there were people--
01:21:53
◼
►
- Oh yeah, and the other thing where they pushed
01:21:54
◼
►
the unpopular model that developers could get the blue,
01:21:57
◼
►
whatever the parameters were, which was nice.
01:21:59
◼
►
It was like we have some that aren't committed,
01:22:01
◼
►
so we're gonna make them available to, you know,
01:22:03
◼
►
and that's how a lot of developers made a lot of friends
01:22:06
◼
►
buying those and selling them off.
01:22:07
◼
►
- And it's also been true, for example,
01:22:08
◼
►
with the iPhone 7, you know, where there were
01:22:10
◼
►
certain models, you know, the Jet Black
01:22:14
◼
►
and the plus size ones that, you know,
01:22:17
◼
►
If you didn't get your order in right at midnight Pacific,
01:22:21
◼
►
you were given a, you weren't gonna get it on day one,
01:22:24
◼
►
but whenever they were promising, that's when you got it.
01:22:28
◼
►
You did get it before, and I ordered a couple of them,
01:22:32
◼
►
and one of them, I don't know,
01:22:33
◼
►
six to eight weeks or something like that,
01:22:34
◼
►
and I got it in four weeks.
01:22:36
◼
►
- Oh, wow, great.
01:22:38
◼
►
- So whatever's going on with the AirPods isn't like that.
01:22:41
◼
►
It seems to me like they aren't willing to commit.
01:22:44
◼
►
Obviously, if they could, if they felt like,
01:22:46
◼
►
well, we can't meet demand right now,
01:22:48
◼
►
but within two months we will.
01:22:50
◼
►
They'd start taking orders
01:22:52
◼
►
and say six to eight weeks delivery.
01:22:55
◼
►
- And the other thing too is that whatever it is,
01:22:57
◼
►
it was obviously a surprise
01:22:59
◼
►
and it's sort of like an unknown known.
01:23:02
◼
►
You know what I mean?
01:23:03
◼
►
Like they don't quite have a handle on the problem
01:23:05
◼
►
because I expected, it seemed like Apple expected,
01:23:10
◼
►
when the invitations went out
01:23:11
◼
►
for the MacBook Pro event in October,
01:23:15
◼
►
it seemed as though they were expecting to launch
01:23:17
◼
►
the AirPods at that event and say they're now available.
01:23:21
◼
►
And I think those invitations, as per Apple's usual want,
01:23:25
◼
►
only went out like a week before the event.
01:23:28
◼
►
So up to like a week before that event,
01:23:30
◼
►
they still thought that they were gonna launch
01:23:32
◼
►
in late October.
01:23:33
◼
►
- I also think, so the narrative about Apple always gets
01:23:37
◼
►
spun, they're doomed because of X, and we don't do that here
01:23:40
◼
►
because we know they've got $200 billion in the bank,
01:23:43
◼
►
I've said, I think under a Trump administration, Apple could do very well because they will
01:23:48
◼
►
have a deal to repatriate their money and they'll pay some different tax rate and that's
01:23:53
◼
►
probably going to get solved, right?
01:23:54
◼
►
So Apple will have even more money to spend in the U.S. that's repatriated.
01:23:58
◼
►
Like, you know, they're not going anywhere.
01:24:00
◼
►
But I actually think this is a story that one could argue is the difference between
01:24:04
◼
►
them and Samsung, perhaps, or a sign that Apple is still on the right track even if
01:24:08
◼
►
maybe they have too much on their plate that's not executing all in concert, you know, or
01:24:13
◼
►
not anticipating the USB-C adapter negative response, then they lowered prices.
01:24:18
◼
►
So Apple didn't ship the AirPods and then say, "Oops, some of them are bad, and take
01:24:23
◼
►
them into a store and we'll send you a box to return it."
01:24:26
◼
►
They said, "We can't ship these in good conscience because whatever reason."
01:24:31
◼
►
Maybe they couldn't even get them off the assembly line, which seems unlikely since
01:24:34
◼
►
they had review units.
01:24:35
◼
►
I'm sure they are ramped up to a point to be able to produce them in the quantities
01:24:38
◼
►
that they needed to ramp up towards.
01:24:40
◼
►
But this tells me they're more willing to take the hit of customers who are unhappy
01:24:44
◼
►
to get a thing that they want to delight them by just delaying indefinitely until they know
01:24:49
◼
►
they can deliver something that's functional.
01:24:51
◼
►
That is a good sign to me, even because you can't always hit on all cylinders on manufacturing.
01:24:56
◼
►
And you know, they're losing sales, but are there things that are direct competitors that
01:25:01
◼
►
someone is saying, "I'm canceling my AirPod order to buy this other thing"?
01:25:05
◼
►
I think you just have a delay for most people who are going to be a buyer of it.
01:25:09
◼
►
Right, right. Apple is really screwed because some people who really want wireless headphones
01:25:13
◼
►
are buying Beats.
01:25:15
◼
►
Or they're waiting, Apple is sitting on waiting for a few million dollars relative to their
01:25:22
◼
►
multi-billion dollar earnings.
01:25:24
◼
►
So I can see the possibilities would be... The best case scenario is that sometime in
01:25:31
◼
►
the next week, Apple starts shipping them in significant quantity. And I feel like if
01:25:38
◼
►
If that happens, it'll mostly be all's forgiven.
01:25:42
◼
►
Although I seriously think that they've shut,
01:25:45
◼
►
one way they shut themself in the foot
01:25:46
◼
►
is that the most likely time for someone to buy one
01:25:48
◼
►
is while they're buying their iPhone 7.
01:25:50
◼
►
And so there's an awful lot of people who would have said,
01:25:52
◼
►
well, what the hell, I'll tack on $150,
01:25:55
◼
►
who now that their iPhone 7 doesn't even feel that new,
01:25:58
◼
►
it's like, well, that's just my iPhone,
01:26:00
◼
►
they're not gonna spend $150 on it.
01:26:02
◼
►
But if they can do it in the next week
01:26:04
◼
►
in sufficient quantity, it's also very clearly,
01:26:07
◼
►
a stocking stuffer, right? I mean, like, quite—
01:26:10
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, yeah.
01:26:11
◼
►
Pete: In every aspect of the word, you know, it's something—
01:26:13
◼
►
Pete; It's an expensive gift you get for, I mean, this is, you know, 100 and, what is it,
01:26:16
◼
►
200 bucks? I forgot.
01:26:17
◼
►
Pete; 149. Or 159.
01:26:19
◼
►
Pete; So, it's, you know, it's out of the scale of a lot. It's, you know,
01:26:22
◼
►
I don't know what families have different limits and whatever, but it's like, you know, we got one
01:26:25
◼
►
of my kids, one of my, it's a secret, my son doesn't listen, neither of my kids listen to this
01:26:29
◼
►
podcast. But my older son has a—
01:26:33
◼
►
Pete; You better hope so!
01:26:34
◼
►
Pete; I hope so. They, I don't think they listen to, well, they get older, they will. They listen
01:26:37
◼
►
to the game show episodes of The Incomparable where some of the hosts will say, "Oh no, Glenn's
01:26:41
◼
►
kids are listening, you know, clean it up." But, so, my older son has a great proclivity towards
01:26:47
◼
►
music. He is, thank God, not a prodigy because we know happy lives and prodigies do not go together.
01:26:53
◼
►
But he has a gift. He's a musical talent. It's really neat and he's been learning a bunch of
01:26:57
◼
►
instruments and his flute is his primary one, but he suddenly got interested in the trombone.
01:27:01
◼
►
And I'm like, "Okay, I guess we have a small house, but you know, I love hearing him play."
01:27:06
◼
►
okay, you know, we got a mute for it. So, his mother-in-law, or my mother-in-law,
01:27:09
◼
►
father-in-law got that as a gift, which is, you know, got a modest model on sale and whatever,
01:27:14
◼
►
but it's a pricey gift and he'll appreciate it. So, that's kind of, you know, that's out of our
01:27:18
◼
►
usual scale, but the grandparents are allowed to do that and they asked.
01:27:21
◼
►
Well, if you look at—
01:27:23
◼
►
But like, you know, AirPods, we didn't get them AirPods, let me just tell you that.
01:27:26
◼
►
Right. If you look—oh no, nobody's getting AirPods for good, at least not yet.
01:27:31
◼
►
I'm getting earplugs, though, that's gonna be my gift.
01:27:34
◼
►
- If you look at the iPod's sales history,
01:27:37
◼
►
I mean there's a lot of reasons for the reasons
01:27:39
◼
►
it ramped up, that the first few years
01:27:41
◼
►
it was a Mac only product and et cetera.
01:27:44
◼
►
But it's when they found good models
01:27:47
◼
►
that could hit that 199 price point
01:27:49
◼
►
is really when it exploded.
01:27:51
◼
►
There's something magical about sub $200
01:27:54
◼
►
in terms of, okay, this isn't something we'll,
01:27:57
◼
►
it's not a lark, but it's a gift.
01:28:02
◼
►
So 159 would be great.
01:28:03
◼
►
If they can do it this week, in quantity,
01:28:07
◼
►
that would be great.
01:28:07
◼
►
That's the best case scenario,
01:28:08
◼
►
and I think it's mostly all's forgiven.
01:28:10
◼
►
If they ship in the next week or so,
01:28:14
◼
►
but it's not in sufficient quantity,
01:28:16
◼
►
and it's six to eight weeks back ordered past the holidays
01:28:20
◼
►
for just about it for all practical effects, that sucks.
01:28:23
◼
►
And that's obviously a huge miss for them.
01:28:26
◼
►
Because it was, you know, the holiday,
01:28:30
◼
►
getting these things out in time
01:28:31
◼
►
the ship for the holiday is huge.
01:28:33
◼
►
There's just no doubt about it.
01:28:35
◼
►
It's one of those items that's gonna sell
01:28:38
◼
►
in that spiky, whoa, look at the fourth quarter
01:28:42
◼
►
sells double what it does in the other three quarters
01:28:44
◼
►
of the year type product.
01:28:46
◼
►
And then the third--
01:28:48
◼
►
- I think it was a poll though,
01:28:50
◼
►
oh, it was a poll though too,
01:28:51
◼
►
when people bought AirPods,
01:28:52
◼
►
they thought AirPod plus the new phones,
01:28:54
◼
►
so some people delayed getting a new phone
01:28:56
◼
►
until they could get AirPods.
01:28:57
◼
►
- Third case scenario would be it doesn't even ship
01:29:00
◼
►
for in low quantity this month.
01:29:02
◼
►
- Oh my God, yeah.
01:29:03
◼
►
- And there was, MacRumors had a story,
01:29:06
◼
►
you know, somehow sourced to the supply chain
01:29:08
◼
►
that it's been pushed back to January.
01:29:10
◼
►
And then the next day they had a counter story
01:29:12
◼
►
that said, no, no, it's shipping soon.
01:29:14
◼
►
That's really embarrassing.
01:29:17
◼
►
And then I guess as terms of what's actually possible,
01:29:21
◼
►
you can't say it's impossible
01:29:23
◼
►
that they never even ship them.
01:29:24
◼
►
- Oh man, that would be very bad for confidence.
01:29:29
◼
►
- Not on the financial side, a bit, very small,
01:29:32
◼
►
but the confidence of it would be--
01:29:35
◼
►
- I guess never seems impos--
01:29:36
◼
►
But what if it doesn't ship until like July?
01:29:39
◼
►
Like the white iPhone, right?
01:29:41
◼
►
- It would just become a, you know,
01:29:42
◼
►
becomes an albatross, right?
01:29:44
◼
►
It's like, it's a very beautiful bird when it's flying,
01:29:46
◼
►
not so much when it's hanging around your neck.
01:29:48
◼
►
- Again, does not doom the company, but this is--
01:29:51
◼
►
- No, just--
01:29:52
◼
►
- At this point, I feel like, you know,
01:29:54
◼
►
December 9th, I mean, it's probably too close.
01:29:58
◼
►
I mean, it's, you know, we're talking 15, 16 days till Christmas.
01:30:02
◼
►
There could be a bunch of people in a factory in China very, you know,
01:30:05
◼
►
delicately opening up things and fixing a tiny thing or testing them one at a
01:30:10
◼
►
I don't know this, but I certainly would,
01:30:12
◼
►
I would bet heavily that there are some normally Cupertino
01:30:17
◼
►
residents who are spending on all, you know.
01:30:20
◼
►
Do you remember that story about Tim Cook? It was a great story.
01:30:24
◼
►
I think it was the thing. Yeah, it's the, um, they're having that meeting.
01:30:27
◼
►
I can't remember the specific problem. Something was going on in China that was problematic.
01:30:31
◼
►
He's sitting there as CEO. The person at the table explains it, and they go in the meeting,
01:30:36
◼
►
and at some point Tim looks at him and says, "Why are you still here?" And the guy walked out and
01:30:41
◼
►
literally got on a plane to China to take care of the problem. I'm telling you, right? It's close to
01:30:45
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, it's somebody, you know, Tim said, "Okay, well, you're responsible for fixing it.
01:30:48
◼
►
You'll have to go there to fix it." And then the meeting keeps going and the guy didn't get up,
01:30:54
◼
►
up, and Tim Cook says, "Why are you still here?" And so the guy realized that that's
01:30:59
◼
►
how quickly he wanted him to go, and he drove—he didn't go home and pack, he just drove to
01:31:04
◼
►
the airport and figured he'd get clothes once he gets to Beijing.
01:31:07
◼
►
Pete: You can buy clothes in China, I've heard, very easily.
01:31:10
◼
►
So, I like that it also wasn't that Tim was screaming and red-faced at him, he's
01:31:16
◼
►
just like, "Why are you still here?" I thought that, to me, set a tone for the Tim
01:31:21
◼
►
Cook administration, and I think it's followed through pretty well that we expect that he
01:31:27
◼
►
holds people responsible without it, you know, for the right reason. When things aren't
01:31:32
◼
►
working, it's going to get fixed, and that's what this feels like from the outside. There's
01:31:35
◼
►
a bunch of people who are, you know, like, "We've got to get this fixed so I can
01:31:39
◼
►
be with my family at the holidays at the end of the year."
01:31:42
◼
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Pete: Yeah. All right, let me take a break here and thank our third and final sponsor.
01:31:45
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longtime sponsor of the show with a just a fantastic service mail route you know
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that's mail route this is what mail route does all they do is they don't
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host email they don't host your email all they do is filter it for you take
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all the junk out so what the way it works is pretty simple if you control a
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domain where you get email whether you're a big company okay they do stuff
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for huge companies or whether you're like me and I've got like the only person who has
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at daring fireball.net email. It doesn't matter big or small, you just point your MX records for
01:32:27
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the domain to go to mail route first. Your mail goes to them first, they filter out all the junk
01:32:33
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and then they immediately, you know, we're talking like a hundredth of a second later,
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it forwards on to your actual mail server. So from the outside, the MX records point to mail route,
01:32:43
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then it goes to mail route and it's just a filter, literally, it's just the filter.
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And then the actual good email just goes right to your server. So it doesn't even take any longer
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that, you know, other than like fraction of a second. But all of a sudden, your email has no
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junk, no garbage, it just works. And that's all they do. This is all they do. It's a fantastic
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service. And it really works great. And all sorts of other companies are getting out of the email
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protection business because it's such hard work. Postini went away, McAfee's thing went away,
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MX Logic went away. This is a tremendous service. There's no hardware or software to install. It's
01:33:21
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not like you install new software. You just point your domain at them. So it doesn't matter what
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you're using for your email. It doesn't matter if you're using Microsoft stuff in a corporate
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environment or even if you're hosting on Google Apps or something like that. So whether you're
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a small home business or a huge ISP, MailRoute handles customers of all sizes and provides the
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a service like this. Like, do you want to get a report every day with the mail that got filtered
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so you can eyeball it and make sure that good stuff isn't getting caught? You can do that.
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it's so great and it's just completely focused on this one thing which is
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filtering the junk out of your email. I don't know what else to say about them.
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you look at it. They even give you a 30-day free trial so you can go there and
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and just in the time it takes to change the MX records for your domain, there you
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you even give them a nickel. And then once you do start paying, go to mailroute.net/tts,
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go into mailroute.net/tts.
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So my thanks to them.
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Go check them out.
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Highly, highly, highly recommend them.
01:35:07
◼
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What else is going on?
01:35:12
◼
►
You see this thing where Apple launched
01:35:15
◼
►
their TV single sign-on?
01:35:17
◼
►
- Yes, yeah, they sorta, they launched,
01:35:21
◼
►
yeah, they launched it.
01:35:22
◼
►
All right, I'll give them that.
01:35:22
◼
►
They did launch it.
01:35:23
◼
►
- So John Pachkowski put it in a tweet.
01:35:25
◼
►
So just the other day, Apple launched the single,
01:35:27
◼
►
this is the thing where you can use
01:35:29
◼
►
your cable service username and password to sign in.
01:35:34
◼
►
And then all of the apps on your Apple TV
01:35:40
◼
►
that require a cable service thing to get,
01:35:45
◼
►
you don't have to log into each one of them individually
01:35:48
◼
►
and type the four digits from your phone
01:35:50
◼
►
and blah, blah, blah for each app over and over again.
01:35:53
◼
►
You sign in once at a system level
01:35:56
◼
►
and then the apps just pick it up and then they just work.
01:35:59
◼
►
The problem is that they launched it and they don't have Comcast, they don't have Time Warner Cable,
01:36:05
◼
►
they don't have Fios, they don't have on the content side, they don't have ABC, CBS or ESPN,
01:36:11
◼
►
they don't have HBO Go. So it's launched, but and I guess, you know, there's the big ones that I can
01:36:19
◼
►
see in the list. And maybe I'm underestimating some of the ones, you know, like I've never heard
01:36:24
◼
►
of some of these like Hawaiian telecom. Well, I guess it's probably local to Hawaii. The ones I've
01:36:31
◼
►
heard of are DirecTV and Dish. So if you have satellite TV through DirecTV or Dish, you're in.
01:36:37
◼
►
But without Comcast and Time Warner and Fios, boy, that's, it's, I mean, and hopefully this is
01:36:45
◼
►
one of those things that it just takes time to get these people on board. And maybe it's not even
01:36:52
◼
►
so much that they're reluctant to sign up but that they just need time to get it integrated
01:36:57
◼
►
on their back ends. But this doesn't look good either because this was announced at WWDC
01:37:03
◼
►
I think, right? And it was emphasized and reiterated in the iPhone event in September
01:37:10
◼
►
that later this year we're going to roll this out. This is when they announced that the
01:37:15
◼
►
video app is renamed to TV on iOS. It was announced and I don't, you know, if this is
01:37:24
◼
►
all they're going to have by the end of the year, boy, that's, it's nowhere near what they were
01:37:28
◼
►
promising in September. So this is another one where I feel like Apple is really falling short.
01:37:32
◼
►
I wouldn't have thought they would have announced it when they did unless they had
01:37:37
◼
►
the biggest services signed on, especially HBO. They have a partnership with, although,
01:37:42
◼
►
I mean, I guess it's HBO via these providers.
01:37:45
◼
►
So the provider is still the issue.
01:37:47
◼
►
But HBO's app is not listed.
01:37:50
◼
►
So conceivably, even if HBO and the providers couldn't get a deal, then, you know, maybe
01:37:55
◼
►
HBO has contracts that prohibit them unless providers agree.
01:37:58
◼
►
Some of the apps are iOS only and some are TVS only.
01:38:03
◼
►
Most of those are, that are one platform only, TVOS as well.
01:38:09
◼
►
It is weird because it seemed, I mean, if you didn't have Comcast and Time Warner,
01:38:15
◼
►
why wouldn't you have, why would you have launched, why would you have announced this
01:38:18
◼
►
like for pressure?
01:38:19
◼
►
Like, well, we'll get some of the big ones, you know, they have some of them.
01:38:24
◼
►
I mean, DirecTV makes sense because the AT&T connection and all that, but it just, it's
01:38:29
◼
►
It seems to me to go hand in hand with the AirPods in terms of that it seems like they
01:38:35
◼
►
were taken by surprise.
01:38:36
◼
►
Like, they thought that they had this, and it ends up they don't.
01:38:41
◼
►
Whether it's a negotiation thing that wasn't finalized, or if it's a technical thing,
01:38:45
◼
►
or a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B, it seems to me that in September
01:38:48
◼
►
they thought they were going to have this by, you know, around now, end of November,
01:38:54
◼
►
very early December, and they don't.
01:38:56
◼
►
Well, we've heard, you know, about AnyQ showing up with an untucked shirt and pissing
01:39:00
◼
►
off famous detail, and pissing off TV or, you know, executives, whatever.
01:39:05
◼
►
I think it was Time Warner, right.
01:39:06
◼
►
was a time where, yeah, yeah, and it's like, I mean, there is a little, I'm not going to
01:39:10
◼
►
credit that with being, how real a thing that was, because that came from the cable side,
01:39:15
◼
►
not from the Apple side or whatever. But it may be that they were just, you know, they've,
01:39:20
◼
►
Apple has been able to bowl through a lot of deals on the advantage of bringing a ton
01:39:25
◼
►
of users along and it being a net benefit for subscriptions. There's this related discussion
01:39:30
◼
►
that on, was it just on tvOS that Apple may drop the fee for subscriptions from 30 percent
01:39:36
◼
►
to 15 percent. So which would be, it's a nice big carrot to give to any of the cable networks.
01:39:45
◼
►
And I'm always confused about exactly, I don't follow this closely enough, which premium
01:39:50
◼
►
channels are owned by which cable or media company. And because the cable companies now
01:39:55
◼
►
own sort of chains of media companies, it's all slightly interrelated there too. So in
01:40:01
◼
►
In some cases you're like, all right, well, Comcast is, all the different providers are
01:40:09
◼
►
going to move.
01:40:10
◼
►
I mean, everyone knows that eventually it's going to be unbundled, right?
01:40:13
◼
►
Everything's going to be unbundled.
01:40:15
◼
►
They're all fighting against it as hard as they can, but we've seen all the cracks.
01:40:18
◼
►
And AT&T's new DirecTV Now deal is a part of it.
01:40:22
◼
►
It's not necessarily even financially fantastic unless you do the early signup deal, the $35
01:40:29
◼
►
hundred channels, like, you know, lock-in, like that's a good deal, I think, but we're
01:40:34
◼
►
going to come to a world in which bandwidth is one thing.
01:40:36
◼
►
I've got my gigabit internet as long as it lasts from CenturyLink, which is a, you know,
01:40:41
◼
►
bottom tier telco that has a lot of copper installed, so they're trying to switch to
01:40:48
◼
►
fiber, but I have to hope they actually survive and this is viable.
01:40:51
◼
►
But you know, even Comcast is delivering higher speeds, they're delivering higher caps, there's
01:40:56
◼
►
these zero rating issues that are coming up with AT&T in terms of how they'll count direct
01:41:01
◼
►
TV streaming over wireless. Like, there's a whole swirling miasma of things. And I would
01:41:05
◼
►
have thought in the middle of this that Apple would have been a great tool for the cable
01:41:08
◼
►
operators to extend value and for the cable channels they own, which are many of them,
01:41:15
◼
►
to have more people signed up in various ways. So it's baffling to me as a result.
01:41:20
◼
►
- The single sign-on thing seems to me like, why not?
01:41:24
◼
►
Like if you were at Comcast, like if you've,
01:41:26
◼
►
all of a sudden you're an executive at Comcast.
01:41:28
◼
►
I can see where they're wary of things
01:41:31
◼
►
that enable cord cutting, right?
01:41:34
◼
►
'Cause they don't, they, you know,
01:41:35
◼
►
they wanna fight that and they wanna milk the,
01:41:38
◼
►
we have these customers paying us
01:41:41
◼
►
a hundred and some dollars a month every month
01:41:43
◼
►
for cable TV and that's a really nice deal
01:41:46
◼
►
and we wanna keep that going as long as we can.
01:41:49
◼
►
the single sign-on is based on that, right? It's based on the idea that you're still paying
01:41:53
◼
►
for a monthly thing, right? It's not a cord-cutting thing, so why not get on board with it? I don't
01:42:00
◼
►
quite get it. Unless it's just technical problems. Unless it's like—
01:42:04
◼
►
Pete: Because I can do it now, right? Comcast, I can use a Comcast sign-in for
01:42:07
◼
►
all sorts of things already. They're not preventing me from doing it. This just makes it harder,
01:42:12
◼
►
right? It's not a—
01:42:12
◼
►
- Right, it's exactly it.
01:42:14
◼
►
It's just making something easier for the person,
01:42:18
◼
►
for the user, that you can already do.
01:42:21
◼
►
I already have on my, I have Comcast service,
01:42:23
◼
►
and I have an Apple TV, and I have at least a handful
01:42:26
◼
►
of apps from cable channels like HBO, the main one,
01:42:31
◼
►
where I have to sign in with my Comcast credentials
01:42:34
◼
►
to prove that I have cable.
01:42:36
◼
►
This would just make it easier.
01:42:37
◼
►
And so it's a little frustrating to me.
01:42:40
◼
►
- I have to believe that Comcast
01:42:42
◼
►
the other big ones think they're going to lose some kind of audience presence to Apple by allowing
01:42:47
◼
►
Apple to overbrand it. There's also the melding of it, right? The TV app is going to –
01:42:52
◼
►
Pete: Well, that's different though. Again, I can see why they're not participating.
01:42:56
◼
►
Pete: Right. Oh, you're right. Yeah, okay.
01:42:57
◼
►
Pete; Netflix in particular is a holdout on that. And speaking of Netflix…
01:43:01
◼
►
Pete; But you're right, these other things will though, right? I mean, the TV app will include
01:43:04
◼
►
a lot of stuff drawn from all these other apps, so it's not necessarily a perfect overlap that
01:43:09
◼
►
they're not allowing this. It just seems inconvenient instead of a strategy. So,
01:43:14
◼
►
I have to believe there's something we don't understand. Let's not just peak,
01:43:17
◼
►
or there's some money that should be changing hands that Apple doesn't want to pay, or
01:43:21
◼
►
Comcast, et cetera, thinks they're losing out somehow.
01:43:24
◼
►
Pete: I saw the other day that Netflix became the top-grossing iOS app, and now I just looked as
01:43:29
◼
►
we were talking and it slipped to number two behind Clash Royale.
01:43:34
◼
►
Pete; Interesting.
01:43:35
◼
►
- But it's, you know, now that they,
01:43:38
◼
►
'cause it used to be that they didn't take signups,
01:43:40
◼
►
'cause I guess they didn't want to split the money
01:43:42
◼
►
with Apple, you had to sign up for Netflix
01:43:44
◼
►
outside of iOS in a web browser,
01:43:47
◼
►
and then you could sign in with your credentials.
01:43:49
◼
►
But now that they're taking the in-app purchases,
01:43:53
◼
►
they're the number two grossing app,
01:43:55
◼
►
and that's only counting the people
01:43:57
◼
►
who are paying through iOS, not all of us
01:44:00
◼
►
who've been signed up for Netflix for years
01:44:03
◼
►
aren't even in there.
01:44:03
◼
►
So in terms of like, hey, is Netflix doing well?
01:44:06
◼
►
That looks like they are.
01:44:08
◼
►
But I'm curious, this is one of those things
01:44:10
◼
►
that I've sort of lost track of,
01:44:12
◼
►
is that whole, okay, we're gonna give some of you guys,
01:44:15
◼
►
your big name TV channels an 85/15 split instead of 70/30.
01:44:19
◼
►
Like, did Netflix get in on that, or were they too soon?
01:44:22
◼
►
Like, is this based on an 85/15 split or 70/30?
01:44:26
◼
►
I don't know if anybody knows that
01:44:28
◼
►
other than Apple and Netflix.
01:44:30
◼
►
- I don't think I've seen anything that's even hinted
01:44:33
◼
►
that someone knew which ones were involved.
01:44:35
◼
►
And I have to believe, see,
01:44:36
◼
►
for Netflix has an interesting situation.
01:44:38
◼
►
Like Apple doing that second year subscription price,
01:44:41
◼
►
you know, they're only paying a 15% commission now.
01:44:44
◼
►
Like that's part of, that's a change
01:44:46
◼
►
that I think a lot of people found significant
01:44:47
◼
►
and worthwhile, especially in the,
01:44:49
◼
►
for smaller companies or some of the bigger ones
01:44:51
◼
►
that sell subscription stuff
01:44:52
◼
►
and really rely on the, on in-app purchases
01:44:55
◼
►
or in-app based purchase system.
01:44:57
◼
►
But the Netflix may have reached a point
01:45:01
◼
►
saturated its ability to acquire a market from,
01:45:05
◼
►
or to acquire customers in a way that they know
01:45:10
◼
►
the cost is going to be lower than 30%.
01:45:12
◼
►
So, if they're not getting 15%, they may have said,
01:45:14
◼
►
"All right, we now need to sweep in people
01:45:16
◼
►
that we're not getting. Our numbers, our spreadsheet
01:45:18
◼
►
shows that giving up an extra 15% here is worthwhile
01:45:21
◼
►
for the first year because pencils out good for us
01:45:24
◼
►
and we get the money in the second year."
01:45:25
◼
►
And some of these people may unsubscribe
01:45:27
◼
►
and resubscribe through the website because
01:45:29
◼
►
where they're now our customers and, you know, all works.
01:45:32
◼
►
It's all good now because we're in the last
01:45:33
◼
►
X percentage people we can reach.
01:45:35
◼
►
- Yeah, and they seem to have done pretty well
01:45:38
◼
►
with a fairly liberal policy of shared accounts.
01:45:43
◼
►
You know, that they're not real,
01:45:44
◼
►
doesn't seem like they're big on trying to lock down,
01:45:48
◼
►
like, you know, three or four people sharing an account.
01:45:52
◼
►
- Across a bunch of, 'cause it seems like they're,
01:45:54
◼
►
you know, they have the right idea, which is, look,
01:45:56
◼
►
somebody's paying us 10 bucks a month or whatever it is,
01:45:59
◼
►
and multiply it by the number of X millions
01:46:03
◼
►
of other people who are paying us 10 bucks a month,
01:46:05
◼
►
if there's some leakage here of shared accounts, who cares?
01:46:10
◼
►
The money coming in is great and growing,
01:46:13
◼
►
and the content, what we're paying for the content
01:46:15
◼
►
is here, so we're, you know.
01:46:17
◼
►
It seems like they've always had a good balance
01:46:22
◼
►
on that front.
01:46:24
◼
►
- Yeah, I agree, I agree.
01:46:25
◼
►
last topic I can think of is you want to talk about Farhad Manchu's column this week in the
01:46:30
◼
►
New York Times, which was The Death of Gadgets.
01:46:33
◼
►
Pete: Yeah, I kind of like this piece because I realized, it seemed like, I'm trying to think
01:46:38
◼
►
how many years ago, it's encouraging me. I think when Gizmodo said that they were going to sort of
01:46:43
◼
►
change how they approached what they were doing with reporting and structure, was that like three
01:46:47
◼
►
years ago now? I'm thinking. There was a point at which it seemed like Gadgets started to go away.
01:46:53
◼
►
Like the obsessive focus on gadgets, there was something Gizmodo was the first and then there was Engadget, then there was Gadgets,
01:46:59
◼
►
and then there were, you know, a thousand thousand blogs that were devoted to obsessive coverage with as much leaked information and
01:47:06
◼
►
unboxing and everything as possible of every little doodad that came out. And I'll tell you like even on my now dead,
01:47:11
◼
►
I mean still archive, Wi-Fi networking news site, one of the most popular things I ever posted there
01:47:16
◼
►
was a tiny, it was a post, a tiny video about this thing called Canary
01:47:21
◼
►
something, and it was like a tiny standalone device that would show you what Wi-Fi networks
01:47:25
◼
►
were around you. It was like a handheld Wi-Fi detector, and it would list off the networks
01:47:29
◼
►
on an LED display, or an LCD display. And people, I mean, that still gets traffic, which
01:47:34
◼
►
is weird to me now, but people were obsessed with gadgets for the longest time, and it
01:47:41
◼
►
really did, you know, it was a proven way to get traffic, and it was a proven way to
01:47:46
◼
►
proven way to get advertising, the whole ecosystem worked, and some of these sites became super
01:47:51
◼
►
highly trafficked. And then I felt like it shifted, I felt like people were less obsessed
01:47:56
◼
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with it. And I was like, well, what really happened? Do people have enough gadgets? Like,
01:48:00
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as that run out, are we replacing single-purpose things with multi-purpose things? And it slowly
01:48:06
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kind of ebbed away. And I think, I feel like Farhad put a really good cap on it. The gadget
01:48:10
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apocalypse is upon us, is his head, right? And it starts out, "Remember gadgets." And
01:48:15
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I thought, you know, this is a good concept.
01:48:17
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He's like, we had decades in which,
01:48:19
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like, there were transistor radios.
01:48:21
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Oh, do you remember, the big thing to me was,
01:48:23
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do you remember the flip, how quickly the flip died?
01:48:26
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It was this giant thing, right?
01:48:27
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►
And then everyone, I'd never heard of it.
01:48:29
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Suddenly everyone has one.
01:48:31
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Suddenly they flame out.
01:48:32
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►
It was incredible.
01:48:33
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►
- Well, here's what I don't,
01:48:35
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►
I think that part of this is that the smartphone
01:48:39
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is the Uber gadget, right?
01:48:43
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►
And, you know, for example,
01:48:44
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That's exactly what happened to flip is it got killed by,
01:48:47
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it got killed by the phone.
01:48:50
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And I think a lot of other things have too.
01:48:52
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Transistor radio, I mean, it's everything, right?
01:48:54
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►
It's our camera, it's our Walkman, it's our iPod,
01:48:56
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it's our newspaper, it's, you know.
01:49:00
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- HD radio, satellite radio.
01:49:02
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I mean, satellite radio I think is doing okay.
01:49:03
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I mean, it's not small, but it's not as,
01:49:05
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►
I think it had a bigger arc.
01:49:06
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- Yeah, but you can get,
01:49:07
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►
my wife listens to XM on her iPhone.
01:49:09
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►
- Right, it was just smart for, you know, smart for them.
01:49:11
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►
You know how much the satellites cost to launch,
01:49:13
◼
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made a failure with some of their satellites
01:49:14
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►
with a Boeing issue.
01:49:15
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►
I mean, satellites are not a great way to run a business.
01:49:19
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►
But like Pebble, this was precipitated by Pebble
01:49:21
◼
►
getting bought by Fitbit and then saying,
01:49:24
◼
►
well, we don't know how long,
01:49:26
◼
►
we're not gonna make or ship any more watches.
01:49:28
◼
►
- Yeah, they didn't really,
01:49:29
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►
it's not like they sold it as a platform.
01:49:31
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►
It's more or less an aqua hire
01:49:33
◼
►
where Fitbit bought their engineering and whatever.
01:49:38
◼
►
- It had no future between smart watches
01:49:42
◼
►
major vendors like Apple and iPhones and smartphones that have more capabilities,
01:49:48
◼
►
like what's going to happen with Fitbit, what's going to happen with, you know,
01:49:52
◼
►
then Nest. There's a lot of discussion about what happens to Nest. Does it have a future exactly?
01:49:59
◼
►
You see, there's a story, I had missed this and I felt sort of terrible. 3D Robotics was founded
01:50:06
◼
►
by a drone company, personal drone company founded by Chris Anderson and a partner. And Chris used
01:50:11
◼
►
to be the editor-in-chief of Wire. And a few years ago he left Wire to take over full-time.
01:50:15
◼
►
They raised $100 million in venture. They tried to produce a super premium drone that
01:50:22
◼
►
would be like a—they kind of moved from kits and other stuff to a super premium drone.
01:50:26
◼
►
They had a lot of problems in production. By the time they got to kind of a point where
01:50:29
◼
►
things were okay, China had basically caught up. Like, cheap production in China had overtaken
01:50:36
◼
►
their ability to make something that was competitively priced. And that's part of the story.
01:50:41
◼
►
So, that is part of the issue is anything you can make, like, you look at Nest, you're like,
01:50:45
◼
►
"Well, I could pay $200," I think it's still for the first unit. You can get IP cameras that don't
01:50:50
◼
►
have the same cloud functionality or different and have horrible security problems, but they cost
01:50:54
◼
►
like 30 bucks, you know, and they're slightly worse. It's the not quite good enough but not so
01:51:00
◼
►
horrible that people just completely abandon it kind of thing. And that's, you know, we've got,
01:51:06
◼
►
got the far-hard list off a bunch of stuff, but it's a good tie together, like MakerBot,
01:51:11
◼
►
not really getting to the level that, and it's sort of sad because gadgets kind of drove
01:51:17
◼
►
the entire electronics and technology industry. We've always loved them. But yeah, you know,
01:51:22
◼
►
we saw this happen with snapshot cameras. Snapshot digital cameras are not dead as category,
01:51:28
◼
►
but they might as well be. And even DLSRs have been eaten away. It's not necessarily
01:51:33
◼
►
So you don't choose between a $5,000 DLSR and a smartphone,
01:51:38
◼
►
but mirrorless cameras, which are much less expensive,
01:51:41
◼
►
or can be much less expensive.
01:51:42
◼
►
I think I've eaten away there too.
01:51:43
◼
►
- I think another thing with cameras is,
01:51:45
◼
►
in addition to being eaten by the phone
01:51:47
◼
►
at the consumer end, at the high end,
01:51:49
◼
►
they've also reached a point where the rapid increases
01:51:52
◼
►
in the digital quality have slowed,
01:51:54
◼
►
where you're, it's more like the film days, right?
01:51:58
◼
►
Like in the film era, you could get,
01:52:01
◼
►
You could be like a serious, even a professional photographer
01:52:04
◼
►
and not buy new equipment for long stretches of time, right?
01:52:08
◼
►
You'd, until they break, 'cause number one,
01:52:10
◼
►
the high-end stuff is usually built to last,
01:52:12
◼
►
really great build quality.
01:52:13
◼
►
And the technology stopped changing.
01:52:15
◼
►
It was the same 35 millimeter film.
01:52:17
◼
►
A good lens was a good lens, you know.
01:52:20
◼
►
And I think the digital has sort of gotten to that point too
01:52:23
◼
►
where even the pros don't need to buy cameras as frequently
01:52:25
◼
►
because they're not getting as much bang for the buck
01:52:28
◼
►
by upgrading after two or three years.
01:52:31
◼
►
You can't, I mean, the megapixel myth is a megapixel myth, right?
01:52:35
◼
►
There's a point at which, beyond which a better sensor, a bigger, better sensor doesn't
01:52:40
◼
►
buy you enough more to be worth upgrading, even if it is better.
01:52:43
◼
►
That's where Lightro was trying to introduce computational photography as a gimmick.
01:52:47
◼
►
There's a camera called the Light L16 that hasn't shipped yet that has 16 lenses on
01:52:52
◼
►
it and will let you create like this 52 megapixel image with a tiny format camera using computational
01:52:59
◼
►
photography.
01:53:00
◼
►
curious approach is not going to be a mass market thing but it's very
01:53:03
◼
►
interesting you know so but that's I think that's the truth with everything
01:53:06
◼
►
a GoPro just stumbled they try to expand a different market and GoPro is
01:53:10
◼
►
just the new flip I've been saying this for it feels like but they had a great I
01:53:13
◼
►
mean they had a great run I hope people made money because they had a great run
01:53:16
◼
►
they had a niche product and you know so I don't know I'm a little sad because I
01:53:21
◼
►
grew up with gadgets and I feel like I wasn't like a gadget you know maybe and
01:53:26
◼
►
I never really got into the gadget blogging side of things I do review
01:53:29
◼
►
products and things like that. But he was also pointing out the Kindle, the Echo,
01:53:34
◼
►
like these kinds of—the Echo is a gadget killer at some level because you don't need other stuff.
01:53:38
◼
►
Yeah, but it is a gadget.
01:53:40
◼
►
See, that's why I—
01:53:40
◼
►
It is a gadget, but it's one monolithic gadget from one giant company.
01:53:44
◼
►
Right. That's sort of—that and that is sort of the smartphone as the gadget killer is that
01:53:49
◼
►
the computers have gotten so good that meta-gadgets are killing—
01:53:55
◼
►
Yes, that's it.
01:53:55
◼
►
You know, like a handful of really good smart computers, like an Echo and a Mac and an iPhone,
01:54:03
◼
►
and all of a sudden, they combined obviate an entire drawer full of gadgets.
01:54:08
◼
►
Right, like what else do you need? You don't need a music player, you don't need a camera,
01:54:10
◼
►
you don't need a snapshot GoPro-style camera.
01:54:12
◼
►
You don't need a voice recorder, you know.
01:54:14
◼
►
Yeah, right, you get a case for your camera is now your GoPro, right? Like, I've seen a lot of that.
01:54:21
◼
►
And, you know, I was testing some add-on lenses for iPhone 6s's that'll work with a different
01:54:25
◼
►
case with the iPhone 7. iPhone 7 Plus is just ridiculously good, too. Like, the two lens—
01:54:32
◼
►
Pete: It really is.
01:54:33
◼
►
Pete: Do you have one still? I forgot.
01:54:34
◼
►
Pete; I still have, I have my review unit here.
01:54:36
◼
►
Pete; I just took pictures in the dark outdoor snow. It's night, it's cloudy, I'm in Seattle.
01:54:44
◼
►
Pete; Right.
01:54:45
◼
►
Pete; And I took pictures that I think are absolutely beautiful with the 1x lens. I'm like,
01:54:51
◼
►
Like, I'm like, I can't get a, you know, I'd have to, I pulled out my, I have a mirrorless
01:54:54
◼
►
camera with a, you know, it's like a, when I bought it, it was like a thousand dollar
01:54:58
◼
►
I have a pancake lens for it that's an affordable pancake.
01:55:00
◼
►
I went out and took some pictures with that, and you know, the difference is not in that
01:55:04
◼
►
kind of lighting.
01:55:05
◼
►
I, in the, the mirrorless I have, I can push it to, oh, 25,600 ASA, where it's super
01:55:12
◼
►
So I have to bump it down.
01:55:13
◼
►
The quality of the image from the iPhone 7 Plus and the thousand dollar mirrorless, I'm
01:55:18
◼
►
like, uh, you know, the mirrorless has other attributes that are great, but for that kind
01:55:22
◼
►
of shot, I'm like, I don't think it's not really.
01:55:24
◼
►
So I don't think it's the death of gadgets, but I think it's the death of the drawer full
01:55:31
◼
►
So yeah, that's a good point.
01:55:32
◼
►
That's a good, it is a good column.
01:55:33
◼
►
I'll put a link in the notes.
01:55:34
◼
►
His point too, is I think that like Amazon, Google, Apple, and a handful of other companies
01:55:38
◼
►
essentially now dominate.
01:55:40
◼
►
So this place for innovative startup, interesting niche things is not dead, but like at the
01:55:45
◼
►
moment, what those are going to be, I think, seems pretty thin.
01:55:49
◼
►
Yeah, I think it's true too. I've long thought this about, and Pebble's a perfect example, where
01:55:55
◼
►
the small team, or maybe even the one-person show, can still make an enormous effect with software,
01:56:05
◼
►
but with hardware, at least electronic hardware, no. And I really think that Pebble,
01:56:12
◼
►
Their first one was good enough to be their first one,
01:56:16
◼
►
but their improvements, their subsequent improvements
01:56:19
◼
►
were way too little, too late, at way too slow a pace.
01:56:23
◼
►
They needed much better screens and much better everything,
01:56:27
◼
►
much quicker.
01:56:28
◼
►
And I think, I don't even know that it was a failure.
01:56:30
◼
►
I think, you know, in terms of,
01:56:32
◼
►
I don't know that a team that small could have done better.
01:56:34
◼
►
Like you'd almost have to be Apple's or Amazon's
01:56:37
◼
►
or Google's size to do stuff like that.
01:56:39
◼
►
- I think you're right.
01:56:40
◼
►
Pebble hit us point when the thing it did best, I think you said, was notifications.
01:56:44
◼
►
That's what I heard from a lot of people. But it couldn't integrate well enough with
01:56:48
◼
►
everything and that didn't change because iOS didn't change.
01:56:52
◼
►
And my personal take on their notifications, the thing that killed it for me, above and
01:56:55
◼
►
beyond the display, was that I found their vibrating engine for the notifications to
01:57:00
◼
►
be physically unpleasant.
01:57:03
◼
►
And obviously other people disagree because I have friends, like Jason Snell and my friend
01:57:08
◼
►
Paul Kofasas, who wore their Pebble watches, or maybe even still wear them, I don't know,
01:57:11
◼
►
but wore them for a long time. But I found it to be unpleasant. It was way too much of
01:57:15
◼
►
a... It just wasn't a very pleasing haptic feedback. And it was the best feature the
01:57:20
◼
►
watch had. And so it made me dread taking advantage of the best... I didn't want any
01:57:25
◼
►
notifications because I found it to be unpleasant. So...
01:57:29
◼
►
I don't know. Anyway. I have got to go... We got to wrap it up. This just hit the two
01:57:36
◼
►
hour mark. So that's a great show. Glenn F. G-L-E-N-N, two N's, you get the second N for
01:57:44
◼
►
free. Glenn F. on Twitter. Where else can people find your work?
01:57:49
◼
►
I write a lot at Macworld. Some days, the poor folks at Macworld, some days because
01:57:54
◼
►
of all the help questions I write and all that, you may see too much of me at macworld.com.
01:58:00
◼
►
And I think that's probably the best places right now to find me. I'd point out to, by
01:58:05
◼
►
way, we didn't cover this very briefly, I do have a story up today. If you have an Apple
01:58:09
◼
►
Cinema Display with DisplayPort, not an Apple Thunderbolt display, looks like there may
01:58:13
◼
►
be some solutions coming. One person found this amazing three-cable solution to use with
01:58:19
◼
►
a MacBook Pro. It's like an adapter, a cable, and an inline coupler, and it works! Then
01:58:25
◼
►
it costs like 30 bucks, but there are some adapters coming. I know tons of people keep
01:58:29
◼
►
asking about that. There's a column up at Macworld about it, and if you have one of
01:58:33
◼
►
those displays and your USB-C Thunderbolt 3 concern is real, then look for that.
01:58:37
◼
►
With that, it's a show. Thank you, Glenn. Thank you so much.