170: ‘Kicking Dirt on Them While They’re on Fire’ With Ben Thompson
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Yeah hammering be one thing but it's it's they're doing the like grinding like I don't know if it's like a saw or if it's like
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Sanding or something and it's funny because I know because so actually this this podcast is gonna have a different character than usual because as
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As listeners have noted in the past usually when we record it's it's I would say morning
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But it's more like noon is your time and it's like middle of the night my time and I am usually drinking scotch, but now
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But now it is it is morning my time and evening your time, which means I'm drinking coffee and sparkling water
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So my character may be different. But yes, we also have to put up with environmental noise
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They've been doing it for a while now and I I think I have gotten used to it
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So I don't even it didn't even occur to me until I sat down like oh crap
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I forgot this stupid instructions going on. So anyhow, that's a long-winded introduction to if there is weird grinding noises. I
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Apologize it's it's not me. It's the construction
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I too am drinking coffee and sparkling water.
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You're going to be up all night?
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Yeah, probably.
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Speaking of Serenity Caldwell, I have some follow-up here.
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I forgot this last week. I should have done it last week.
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Serenity and I, two episodes ago, were talking about my inability to
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all I wanted to do, because I have a brand new 256 gigabyte iPhone
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And one of the things I wanted to do is just put all of my music on it because my music library is
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Let's see if I can find it here
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Less than 256 21 gigabytes. I have 4,000 songs 21 gigabytes. So, you know, it's not that big but
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You know big but but not not that big
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Easily fits on 256 megabyte iPhone and that way just put it all over there
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And then I never have to worry I get on an airplane I can be out in the sticks
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I can I could lose my SIM card and I've got all my music
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And there's I could for the life of me couldn't figure out how to do it because I'm also using
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iCloud music library like if I didn't use iCloud music library
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I could do it the old-fashioned way where I just plug it into
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My Mac by the lightning cable and then you in iTunes go over to music and say
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sync everything, and then hit a button,
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and wait for it to be done.
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And then, boom, there's all my music.
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But you can't do that with-- if you have iCloud Music Library
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on, when you go to Music on your Mac when it's connected,
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it just says, you're using iCloud Music Library.
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Do it all that way.
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And Serenity, who knows a lot more about this stuff
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than I do, because she actually writes
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all these detailed how-to-- she was stumped, too.
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Anyway, long story short, the best way to do this--
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And so far, I've had a bunch of people on Twitter, email,
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a whole bunch of people have given me the solution.
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I'll put a link to it in the show notes.
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But long story short, the way you can do this,
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the best workaround anybody can think of
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is you create a smart playlist that matches all music.
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Let's see what my criteria are.
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Oops, started playing music.
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Here, if I edit smart, I tried to double click a smart playlist to show the credentials here.
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If MediaKind, uh, no, match, match music for all of the following, and I put size is less than 300
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megabytes. So any audio file, any music file that's less than 300 megabytes, and it'll be
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matched by the playlist. And I said 300 megabytes, I don't even know why. It's arbitrary, arbitrary
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number. But I have a couple of really big audio files that I do want synced to the iPhone.
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Like I have the, do you ever hear of these Ben? The Criterion Collection, Shamis.JamesBond
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Director's Commentaries?
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No, I have not.
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Merlin Mann turned me on to these a long time ago.
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Long story short, when the first laser discs of the Criterion Collection Bond movies came out,
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like the Connery era ones, so you got like Goldfinger and Dr. No and From Russia With Love,
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the commentaries weren't approved by Eon Productions,
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and there's some really interesting stuff on them.
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Like the editor, I forget his name,
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but the guy who edited Goldfinger,
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more or less threw the director under the bus
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about some totally mismatched shots and camera angles
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that made it a disaster to put together.
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And once you hear him say it, you can see it.
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- Peter Hunt.
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- Peter Hunt, exactly.
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who went on to direct on Her Majesty's Secret Service,
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which I thought was a terrible movie,
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but some people love.
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- I was just thinking that.
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- But that's neither here nor there.
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But Peter Hunt really throws,
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I forget who directed that one.
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Was it a Guy Hamilton who directed Goldfinger?
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- I'm looking it up.
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- Or maybe that was the first one.
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Guy Hamilton.
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- Didn't you? - Yeah, Guy Hamilton.
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- All right, so he throws him under the bus
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about some mismatched footage,
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And it's that opening scene where Bond is at the fountain blue down in Miami,
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and Felix Leiter shows up and everything gets started.
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But they shot some of it outdoors at a real outdoor resort,
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and some of it on a sound stage.
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And it was just a mismatch.
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Anyway, once Eon Productions got--
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they were like, wow, this is really some fascinating behind the scenes stuff.
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When they listened to it, they made the Criterion people
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pull it from future editions.
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So anyway, I've got copies of these things as MP3 files.
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They're almost 300 megabytes.
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And so that's why I picked it.
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But anyway, long story short, make a playlist,
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smart playlist that will match all music.
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Then you go over to your phone, and you can go to the playlist.
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And then you can hit the Cloud button
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for that playlist, which means download all the songs
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on this playlist.
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But since the playlist matches all of your songs,
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it will download all of your songs.
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But Apple seemingly goes way out of its way
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to deliberately make that something that you can't do.
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Like, 'cause when you go to the,
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without going to Playlist, if you just go to All Music,
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there is no Cloud button.
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- Yeah, well, I guess the question is,
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do they deliberately go out of their way
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to make it difficult, or is it just general,
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the general mollies that is the case
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with iTunes and Apple Music?
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- I think in this case, it's deliberate.
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I think that they want you to sort of--
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- It's sort of a commission or a synonymation,
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is the word. - Yeah, I think it's sort of
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like you're supposed, but it's very frustrating,
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I think for people like I don't know every single year every year when my wife gets a new iPhone
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There's a time where I I catch an earful
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Because she goes to the gym and her iPhone doesn't have any music on it
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even though she her last one did and then she did a full backup and restore and you know
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do everything you can to say make my new iPhone just like my last one and then
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There's every year none of her music
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And she's you know, like at the gym that she goes to there's no signal, you know, you can't it's not like you can download the stuff
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every year. And I just don't think it's that much to ask.
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Yeah, the whole, it's interesting,
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I haven't really thought about this a ton, but I use
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the streaming services, the various ones, and it's funny,
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I actually have, it's really frustrating, because I actually have a subscription to both Spotify
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and Apple Music, and the reason is that
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when I'm in, or I think we're going to talk about Siri in a little bit, but when I'm in the car
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driving with the kids, I was like to request songs.
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And so using Siri is obviously preferable
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when you're driving.
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And so it's worth it for that.
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But then my stereo has Spotify Connect,
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which is really great.
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I can play stuff on my phone or whatever,
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and it just plays on the stereo.
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It's kind of like how a Chromecast works,
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where you control it,
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but it's not streaming like AirPlay,
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which is, it's a much better model.
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It works much better, at least for me.
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And now like the Amazon has come out with their service
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that will play in the echo.
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We have an echo set up and notice like, well,
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boy, that'd be convenient.
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It does have Spotify as well, so it works.
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But yeah, this whole like, yes, there's the allure
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of having all the music and having access to it,
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and it's like the upfront cost is much lower,
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but the costs at the backend
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of like actually playing your music,
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there's all these sort of hidden costs that are there.
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and I'm paying for it now, like quite literally,
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but it's really, it's funny, the music industry
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is all about like, yes, of course they're motivated
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to have their music everywhere,
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but they're reinforcing these silos
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with this sort of new model.
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I mean, like if you're not only all Apple,
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if you're not only all whatever service,
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you're kind of stuck in the middle
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and it is pretty frustrating.
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- Yeah, and I don't know.
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I don't know how much of it is related to the fact
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that if you buy, say, a 32 gigabyte iPhone,
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you don't want your 20 gigabyte library synced over.
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And yes, they have the optimized storage feature
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for that for music and they have it for the photos too.
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But it certainly would be very easy for somebody
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with a 32 gigabyte device to run up against the limit.
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And so maybe that's why, I don't know.
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- Yeah, that's a good point.
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They probably sell more of the lower cost phones.
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I mean, if you look at the average selling prices,
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it is weighted in that direction.
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- Yeah, and you know, I admit that I guess the idea
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of I want all of my entire music on my device all the time
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is sort of an old fashioned, I'm still thinking
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like it's the iPod era, but I actually find it useful a lot.
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Or at least every time I fly, every time I fly.
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If I want to listen to this.
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- Yeah, I should do that now, 'cause yeah,
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I realized my big storage issue with phones.
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And so I got, this is the first time
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I've gotten the absolute largest one.
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I think I had a 64 previously
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and I bumped up against the limits over this last year.
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But my big culprit is podcasts.
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I think the Overcast app was occupied
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like 16 gigabytes or something like that,
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something ridiculous.
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Because all accumulate ones that I want to listen to
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or I'll get recommendations
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and they'll just be sitting in there.
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And who knows if I'll ever listen to them.
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But yeah, you can just, that's for me,
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that's the big culprit where I accumulate stuff.
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But I don't know, it's, yeah, we were just talking before,
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like there's still like these rough edges
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of having everything in the cloud is convenient.
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But yeah, airplanes is definitely a big one for me.
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I travel a lot and there's nothing more frustrating
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than being in a place where you just can't get it
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and you're stuck.
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I've actually, speaking of like old school iTunes and iPods,
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I got a, so this company called Underwater Audio
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waterproofs iPod shuffles,
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and they sell waterproof headphones,
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so that you can listen while swimming,
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which is, it's amazing.
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I mean, I've, you know,
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exercise is already miserable enough,
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but to be actually like, listen to podcasts
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or whatever way you're doing it is great.
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The problem is, and it took me a while to figure this out,
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is I, so I loaded a bunch of podcasts onto the shuffle,
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which is already a pain,
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'cause I have to go like use iTunes
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and it's not synced with Overcast and all that sort of stuff.
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But I get there, I get to the pool,
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and I can't, I'm stuck on the first podcast,
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and I can't go to the next one.
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You hit the next button on the iPod Shuffle,
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what would you expect to happen?
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You think it would go to the next track?
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It turns out that with the last iPod Shuffle,
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you have to use voiceover.
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Well, it turns out voiceover doesn't work very well
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when you're in the pool.
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So in there's no mic, anyhow, you can, there's a way around it.
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You can like hold down the voiceover button and then the next and the next
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buttons work. It's super complicated. It makes no sense at all. But yeah,
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anyhow, it's been, it's been really eyeopening, but beyond that,
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just like having to use iTunes again and actually sync stuff and like manually
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manage things like you really appreciate this idea.
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Like I can subscribe to podcasts or I can have the music and it's just there and
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you don't have to think about it to actually have to like pre-plan what I'm
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to listen to, it's like, man, we lived like savages for a long time.
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A good segue to my next bit of follow-up. Now, this is from last week's show—I always say last week,
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even though it's sort of like on a 10-day schedule. But the previous episode when Ben—not Ben,
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you're Ben—Matthew Banserino was on, and we were talking about the AirPods and about how the
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the biggest minus, the only significant,
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the only serious minus about them to me
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is that they don't have the little buttons
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for play/pause and up/down for volume.
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And because it's not so much the play/pause,
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because the whole idea where you just take the one out
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and it pauses and you put it back in and it plays,
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works really, really well in almost every situation.
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In fact, in some situations it works even better
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than the button, because for me, a lot of the times
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It's like if I've got them on because I'm listening
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to something and I'm in a store, like grocery shopping,
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and then I get to the register, I always
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like to take my headphones out or at least take one out
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so that I don't look like I'm listening to something.
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And so to integrate the play/pause
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and the taking out of one of the AirPods, it works great.
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But what I miss is the next track, previous track,
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like the shortcuts by double clicking
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that you used to be able to do.
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And I said that you can't use Siri to change the volume.
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So when you double tap one of the AirPods
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and say like, turn the volume up or turn the volume down,
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doesn't work.
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You have to change the volume either from your Apple Watch
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if you have one or by taking your,
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getting to your phone and using the volume buttons
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on the phone.
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Turns out I was wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.
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You can definitely change the volume by Siri.
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You can do next track, previous track.
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I did it the one time I tried it.
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I did try it, and I said, turn the volume up.
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And I was outside, which might have been the problem.
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And Siri said, I'm sorry, I can't do that, John.
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And I took that as meaning that she completely
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understood what I asked, but was telling me that I can't do this.
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And we might get back to this later about Siri.
00:14:57
◼
►
My fault, it really is my laziness.
00:15:01
◼
►
But I interpreted that.
00:15:02
◼
►
You know what I mean?
00:15:03
◼
►
like she said, "Sorry, I didn't understand you." She said, "I'm sorry, I can't do that, John."
00:15:08
◼
►
And so I took it as meaning volume control is something that was outside the control of Siri.
00:15:13
◼
►
Turns out I was completely wrong. A couple of people have AirPods corrected me on that. Now,
00:15:19
◼
►
obviously, you know, there's not many people who have AirPods at the time.
00:15:22
◼
►
But then I tried it again, and it does work. You could say volume up, volume down,
00:15:27
◼
►
turn the volume up, turn the volume down, next track, go back a track, previous track.
00:15:33
◼
►
I don't have a full list of it, but you know there's synonyms that work like go back a track
00:15:37
◼
►
and previous track are the same thing. Those all work. Can you do like the skip 15 seconds or
00:15:45
◼
►
sort of thing? I mean it was like the headphones if you like, again I use overcast, if you,
00:15:51
◼
►
so mark was it set up like if you double click like it will skip 30 seconds you can set the
00:15:56
◼
►
whatever lengths you want. I don't know. I don't know what happens in Overcast. I
00:16:01
◼
►
suspect if I say next try... I didn't try it. I suspect if I said next track in Overcast,
00:16:05
◼
►
it would just go to the next podcast. I don't think... Yeah, it's interesting.
00:16:08
◼
►
I don't think you could... You know what I mean? I think with the clicker, Marco could
00:16:12
◼
►
hook into it in a way that I don't think Siri would enable. But...
00:16:17
◼
►
Well, now we just set a follow-up for the next podcast. Listen to next week.
00:16:24
◼
►
A couple of people then wrote in--
00:16:26
◼
►
I don't think Matthew and I talked about it,
00:16:28
◼
►
but a couple people have said, if you have--
00:16:30
◼
►
one of the pains in the butt, if you do have the watch,
00:16:33
◼
►
it's a little bit easier if you don't
00:16:34
◼
►
want to use a Siri to do it.
00:16:37
◼
►
But you still have to bring up--
00:16:39
◼
►
if you're in a workout, which is often the situation I'm in
00:16:41
◼
►
where I do want to adjust the volume, like I'm out running
00:16:45
◼
►
and it gets noisy, like if I'm running
00:16:47
◼
►
through a noisier traffic neighborhood
00:16:49
◼
►
and I want to turn the volume up because I can't hear anymore.
00:16:54
◼
►
On the watch, you still have to poke around a little bit
00:16:57
◼
►
to get to a screen where you can adjust the volume.
00:17:01
◼
►
Like, you know, the easiest way, in my opinion,
00:17:03
◼
►
is to just get to the now playing glance,
00:17:06
◼
►
which I keep as the first glance,
00:17:09
◼
►
so it's usually not, you know,
00:17:10
◼
►
it's like one tap on the sidebar, then tap on now playing.
00:17:13
◼
►
And then, once you're on now playing,
00:17:15
◼
►
you can actually change the volume by spinning the crown,
00:17:18
◼
►
which is really, really nice
00:17:20
◼
►
when your fingers are sweaty or something like that.
00:17:22
◼
►
You don't have to poke at the little buttons on screen.
00:17:24
◼
►
But it would be kind of nice if you could somehow set a preference so that if there's music playing right now through either your phone or the watch,
00:17:32
◼
►
that you could use the crown from like the watch face to change the volume.
00:17:36
◼
►
Because right now the crown on the watch face does nothing.
00:17:39
◼
►
It would be kind of nice if it would change the volume.
00:17:41
◼
►
So when you spin the crown on the watch face, does it no longer zoom into like that app view?
00:17:49
◼
►
In watchOS 3, it does nothing.
00:17:51
◼
►
and it doesn't do, they actually,
00:17:53
◼
►
if you're on the app view,
00:17:54
◼
►
it does zoom you back towards the watch face.
00:17:58
◼
►
- But when you're on the watch face,
00:18:00
◼
►
what it used to do in watchOS 2
00:18:01
◼
►
is it gave you the time travel,
00:18:04
◼
►
or whatever they called it.
00:18:06
◼
►
- Yeah, well it used to be that you would zoom in.
00:18:08
◼
►
Yeah, it was funny 'cause I've observed people
00:18:12
◼
►
who aren't technical users,
00:18:13
◼
►
and that was for sure one of the things
00:18:16
◼
►
that always got them frustrated.
00:18:17
◼
►
Like I was actually seen by a guy on a plane
00:18:18
◼
►
who was wearing an Apple Watch,
00:18:21
◼
►
he was asking about it, you know, how he liked it.
00:18:23
◼
►
And he generally liked it, but that was,
00:18:25
◼
►
like that's the fact that he's like,
00:18:27
◼
►
it keeps zooming in and I don't know why.
00:18:29
◼
►
Like that was the one thing that was driving him
00:18:31
◼
►
absolutely up the wall.
00:18:32
◼
►
So I didn't realize that they had changed it, I guess.
00:18:34
◼
►
I'm so accustomed to not even touching it
00:18:36
◼
►
that I didn't notice.
00:18:37
◼
►
But I think in general, I wouldn't be surprised if,
00:18:40
◼
►
you know, clearly, and I think we're definitely
00:18:44
◼
►
both in agreement in this, like Apple,
00:18:47
◼
►
And there were some unfortunate decisions that were made about how the watch would be
00:18:51
◼
►
used in version one.
00:18:52
◼
►
I think they kind of, they went too far down the road of prescribing how people would use
00:18:56
◼
►
it instead of waiting to understand how people want it, you know, would actually use it.
00:19:00
◼
►
And one of the casualties of that I think was the functionality of the buttons in general.
00:19:05
◼
►
And so, yeah, so like in version one, pressing that button was like the whole contacts, like
00:19:10
◼
►
personal communication crap, whatever, which is now completely gone.
00:19:14
◼
►
But in general, I think there's still that sort of, it's not fully realized the potential
00:19:18
◼
►
of those buttons.
00:19:19
◼
►
Like that, but the button should be much more usable and I bet over time will become even
00:19:24
◼
►
more usable in apps.
00:19:25
◼
►
And same thing with the digital crown.
00:19:27
◼
►
Like what you're talking about makes perfect sense.
00:19:29
◼
►
If music is playing, why shouldn't that be volume?
00:19:31
◼
►
And especially if they're going to pursue this focus of being health and fitness, where
00:19:36
◼
►
a touch screen that that's like the worst possible scenario for a touch screen.
00:19:41
◼
►
And it's an example of how the, their kind of the health and fitness focus is a, is,
00:19:49
◼
►
was clearly not what they're thinking about from day one.
00:19:53
◼
►
It was a part of it, but it wasn't like the thing that is for, cause I think there's things
00:19:57
◼
►
they would have done differently.
00:19:58
◼
►
And one of those things they would have done differently is how those buttons are used.
00:20:02
◼
►
And so I would imagine in, in, in like watchOS 4, for example, they're going to move even
00:20:06
◼
►
more to those buttons in the crown being actual usable controls?
00:20:12
◼
►
Right now, if you're in a workout and you have the workout thing is on your... That's
00:20:21
◼
►
what you see when you're... Because you're doing a walk or a run or something. When you
00:20:24
◼
►
spin the crown, it just changes the focus from the different things on the screen. Like
00:20:28
◼
►
if I'm trying and I'm doing a fake run right now, and as I spin it down, it goes from the
00:20:33
◼
►
elapsed time to the active calories to the heartbeat, you know, and just folk changes focus
00:20:38
◼
►
I would I would find it much more useful to have that change the volume
00:20:41
◼
►
Honestly, but that's just me. Yeah. Well, I think yeah and I went again
00:20:47
◼
►
This is one of those things where they change so much in OS 3 like they really just fundamentally changed how the operating system worked
00:20:54
◼
►
And you're not gonna get everything in kind of one go which is fine. Like I think that's that's the mistake
00:20:59
◼
►
I think they made in version one like that it was over it was over prescribed the way you ought to use it without really I
00:21:05
◼
►
Think having an understanding of how people would use this. I mean you go back
00:21:08
◼
►
This is what made the the first phone in particular
00:21:13
◼
►
You know so smart is whether there's this classic story in in design talk like I'm sure you've heard a million times, but where
00:21:21
◼
►
there is some school or whatever where they they built up this whole new area of the campus or something like that and
00:21:28
◼
►
instead of putting in sidewalks, they put in like this really nice grass.
00:21:32
◼
►
And then they observed where the grass got worn down and then they put sidewalks there.
00:21:37
◼
►
And like that's just a, and you can see there's other examples where there's like a path and
00:21:42
◼
►
right next to it there's like worn down grass because people are like taking like little
00:21:45
◼
►
shortcuts and stuff like that.
00:21:47
◼
►
And with the phone in particular, Apple really took sort of the grass approach where they
00:21:53
◼
►
got the basics there.
00:21:55
◼
►
They got a browser, they got a phone, they got an iPod.
00:21:57
◼
►
And then the rest of it was really that period where folks like Craig Hockenberry or whatever
00:22:03
◼
►
were figuring out the API and were building side-loaded applications, I think was really
00:22:09
◼
►
valuable to help Apple really understand what needed to be built and how they should go
00:22:15
◼
►
about opening up the API and what things might be possible.
00:22:20
◼
►
And that's the exact opposite process they did with the watch.
00:22:23
◼
►
The watch, they did too much.
00:22:26
◼
►
There wasn't enough of a sort of open canvas
00:22:29
◼
►
to figure out what works and what doesn't.
00:22:32
◼
►
And now they're having to kind of unwind
00:22:34
◼
►
what they did before.
00:22:35
◼
►
And that's just gonna take time.
00:22:37
◼
►
- I don't know if that story is apocryphal or not,
00:22:39
◼
►
the story about the paths on campus.
00:22:41
◼
►
But I remember-- - I remember,
00:22:43
◼
►
it's a great story though.
00:22:44
◼
►
- It is a great story.
00:22:45
◼
►
And there's a truth to it.
00:22:46
◼
►
'Cause I remember at Drexel,
00:22:47
◼
►
when I was there in the late '90s,
00:22:49
◼
►
there were definite dirt paths through grass,
00:22:53
◼
►
you know, that were, they're obviously there forever.
00:22:56
◼
►
That clearly they should have, you know,
00:22:58
◼
►
I remember when I first heard that story,
00:22:59
◼
►
I thought specifically about certain areas.
00:23:02
◼
►
If anybody went to Drexel, it was then,
00:23:07
◼
►
I don't know if they even call it,
00:23:08
◼
►
the campus at Drexel has changed so much
00:23:10
◼
►
since I went there, but we used to, you know,
00:23:11
◼
►
we called it the quad, the section off Market Street.
00:23:16
◼
►
Street. There definitely was I mean it couldn't have been more exactly like
00:23:22
◼
►
that story like here's a plate you know you're supposed to walk all the way over
00:23:26
◼
►
there and go around this building and everybody just cut through right here I
00:23:30
◼
►
could think of two examples in Apple's history where the apples done that and
00:23:34
◼
►
but they're both like classic Matt you remember the classic Mac OS you didn't
00:23:37
◼
►
use the Mac back then did you I do remember it I but yeah no I didn't two
00:23:42
◼
►
One of the things I can think of would be Command-Tab, where that was a Windows invention,
00:23:49
◼
►
where you'd hit Command-Tab.
00:23:50
◼
►
And originally in Command-Tab in Windows, you would just cycle through apps in most
00:23:56
◼
►
recently used order.
00:23:58
◼
►
And obviously Windows users took to it.
00:24:02
◼
►
But then where it really became a good interface was when they put up the heads-up display
00:24:08
◼
►
that showed you where, you know, all of your apps in most recent order, so you could see,
00:24:14
◼
►
"Oh, I need to go four to get to Excel." You know, you'd actually see it. It used to not
00:24:19
◼
►
have that heads-up display. It would just switch through the apps, you know, and you'd
00:24:23
◼
►
find out which app you were getting to each time you hit tab. And it became a thing where
00:24:29
◼
►
there were, I don't know, three or four competing third-party utilities from Mac OS that did
00:24:35
◼
►
the exact same thing and everybody had one of them installed.
00:24:38
◼
►
I mean, it was one of those things where I don't know anybody who didn't.
00:24:43
◼
►
And eventually Apple acquiesced.
00:24:45
◼
►
I don't know which version of Mac OS it was, but they added it as a system level thing.
00:24:52
◼
►
And I think they delayed on it because I think there was a sort of reluctance to add anything
00:24:57
◼
►
that came to Windows first to the Mac.
00:24:59
◼
►
Yeah, probably.
00:25:01
◼
►
And then the other one I could think of
00:25:03
◼
►
was the old Apple menu.
00:25:06
◼
►
Used to just be-- in the original Mac OS,
00:25:09
◼
►
the Apple menu had--
00:25:11
◼
►
I think it still had the About for whatever app you're in.
00:25:19
◼
►
About this app would be the first item in the Apple menu.
00:25:25
◼
►
And then the rest of it was just a list of your desk accessories,
00:25:29
◼
►
which were the little-- and this is super old.
00:25:31
◼
►
this is like going back to the '80s Mac OS,
00:25:33
◼
►
which were the little, in DOS terms,
00:25:36
◼
►
what were they used to called in DOS,
00:25:37
◼
►
the little way you'd get multitasking?
00:25:40
◼
►
Like little in-app, resident, in-resident?
00:25:45
◼
►
- I got nothing for you, sorry.
00:25:48
◼
►
- Well, I'll think of it.
00:25:50
◼
►
But anyway, desk accessories were little things
00:25:52
◼
►
that ran within the memory of the app itself.
00:25:54
◼
►
So like the calculator and the,
00:25:58
◼
►
there was a thing called the scrapbook,
00:25:59
◼
►
which was sort of like a clipboard history,
00:26:01
◼
►
so you could keep little snippets of text.
00:26:04
◼
►
And third party utilities came up
00:26:06
◼
►
that made the Apple menu way more useful,
00:26:07
◼
►
so that you could put an alias to your hard drive in there.
00:26:11
◼
►
So you could just go to the Apple menu,
00:26:12
◼
►
go down to your hard drive, and get a hierarchical list
00:26:15
◼
►
of every folder.
00:26:16
◼
►
So you wouldn't have to go to the Finder
00:26:18
◼
►
and go to your hard drive and double click on a folder,
00:26:20
◼
►
and then double click on a folder and double click.
00:26:22
◼
►
You would just go to your Apple menu, go to your hard drive,
00:26:25
◼
►
go to applications, go to utilities,
00:26:28
◼
►
and then launch the app from that folder
00:26:30
◼
►
that you wanted to, or wherever you wanted to go.
00:26:33
◼
►
But instead of leaving a whole history of Windows
00:26:35
◼
►
behind of each folder you went to,
00:26:37
◼
►
there was just a hierarchical goal list of menus.
00:26:39
◼
►
And that was another one of those things
00:26:42
◼
►
where everybody had one of these utilities.
00:26:45
◼
►
I think the one that I used was called Now Menus.
00:26:47
◼
►
Boy, it's really going back.
00:26:49
◼
►
But eventually Apple added that to the system as well.
00:26:51
◼
►
It was like, hey, if everybody's got this,
00:26:53
◼
►
you should, it oughta be part of the system.
00:26:55
◼
►
- Yeah, the only, it's funny, the two add-ons
00:26:59
◼
►
that I still depend on now is, one is from Windows,
00:27:04
◼
►
because when I use Windows,
00:27:05
◼
►
I like there's shortcuts to manage,
00:27:08
◼
►
to move your Windows around.
00:27:10
◼
►
So you can like snap your Windows
00:27:11
◼
►
to one side of the desktop or to another
00:27:13
◼
►
or things like and do all kinds of things.
00:27:15
◼
►
So once I have one of those on the Mac,
00:27:18
◼
►
I use one called BetterSnapTool, but that's amazing.
00:27:21
◼
►
But that's super niche, I doubt Apple will ever add that.
00:27:25
◼
►
But the other thing, and it's funny because this is,
00:27:28
◼
►
this is arguably the single thing that keeps me using a Mac instead of like a
00:27:33
◼
►
Chromebook or, or an iPod or anything is a clipboard manager.
00:27:40
◼
►
it's unbelievable how often I use something like that and how much more powerful
00:27:45
◼
►
that makes, that makes using, using a computer. But again, I guess they,
00:27:50
◼
►
they are, those are pretty niche. They've already used all the, uh,
00:27:53
◼
►
taken up all the, all the low hanging fruit. Yeah. Uh,
00:27:55
◼
►
Which clipboard manager do you use?
00:27:58
◼
►
- I use one called copy and paste.
00:28:00
◼
►
I used to use launch, yeah, I used to use launch bar,
00:28:02
◼
►
but launch bar had this weird bug
00:28:04
◼
►
where it would just, it wouldn't work after a while.
00:28:06
◼
►
And they eventually fixed it after it was around
00:28:08
◼
►
for like years and people were complaining about it.
00:28:10
◼
►
They kept saying it was Apple's fault,
00:28:11
◼
►
but like every other clipboard manager had the problem.
00:28:14
◼
►
But yeah, so I use, I don't remember why I got it.
00:28:17
◼
►
I mean, I got it for when I would need a replacement
00:28:21
◼
►
and there's a good review somewhere,
00:28:23
◼
►
but I've seen no reason to switch, it works well for me.
00:28:26
◼
►
It keeps a bunch in there, you can do stuff like,
00:28:28
◼
►
if you've copied stuff, you can paste it
00:28:31
◼
►
as plain text super easily,
00:28:32
◼
►
you can make everything all capitals
00:28:33
◼
►
or take away all the capitals.
00:28:34
◼
►
Like it, so it does like text transformation
00:28:36
◼
►
on stuff as well if you need.
00:28:37
◼
►
So, anyhow, but there's a bunch of them out there,
00:28:39
◼
►
I think they're all probably pretty good.
00:28:41
◼
►
- The ones I've used are Launch Bar's built-in one,
00:28:45
◼
►
which I kind of don't like the display of,
00:28:47
◼
►
but it's actually what I'm using right now.
00:28:52
◼
►
Keyboard Maestro, you ever hear of Keyboard Maestro?
00:28:55
◼
►
- Yeah, I've heard of it.
00:28:56
◼
►
I can't remember if I tried it, but yeah.
00:28:58
◼
►
- Keyboard Maestro does so much stuff.
00:28:59
◼
►
Keyboard Maestro is a great utility.
00:29:02
◼
►
You could record macros that do all sorts of things,
00:29:05
◼
►
but really just sort of automate, multi-step,
00:29:08
◼
►
automate the whole GUI, really.
00:29:10
◼
►
But it also is sort of, you can, if you want it to,
00:29:14
◼
►
act as like text expander where you type TLA
00:29:18
◼
►
and it expands to three-letter acronym
00:29:20
◼
►
or something like that.
00:29:21
◼
►
and it has a clipboard history.
00:29:23
◼
►
Keyboard Maestro's clipboard history is searchable,
00:29:26
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which is actually kind of neat.
00:29:27
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And Keyboard Maestro--
00:29:28
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- Oh, that's, yeah, that would be awesome.
00:29:30
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- Keyboard Maestro has a heuristic
00:29:32
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that looks for things that look like a password
00:29:35
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and bullets them out.
00:29:39
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So, and I think only keeps them as,
00:29:41
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I forget what else it does.
00:29:42
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If it's just a visual thing,
00:29:44
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or if it only lets you copy,
00:29:47
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actually paste it when it's the topmost thing.
00:29:50
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But whatever it does, it's actually never once
00:29:54
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did the wrong thing for me.
00:29:55
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Like the heuristic is so smart about it,
00:29:57
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that however it is that it works,
00:29:59
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it's so smart about identifying things that look like,
00:30:04
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wow, that looks like a password that somebody would make up
00:30:09
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or that like a password utility would make up
00:30:11
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that it doesn't get exposed.
00:30:13
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And then the one that's most recent, which I've used,
00:30:15
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I used in beta, but it hasn't stuck with me
00:30:18
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is Payspot from the Tweetbot guys.
00:30:20
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- Yeah, the searchable one would be super valuable.
00:30:25
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I think, 'cause when I do the daily updates in particular,
00:30:28
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where those usually have more quotes and links
00:30:32
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than my weekly articles do,
00:30:34
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like I will accumulate a ton of links
00:30:37
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in the process of writing just one of them.
00:30:39
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And yeah, sometimes, particularly if I want
00:30:41
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to look something up, like I write about something
00:30:43
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and then I forgot, 'cause I end up having like,
00:30:45
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I will end up with like well over 100 tabs
00:30:47
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every single day after I'm finished writing these,
00:30:50
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which is ridiculous.
00:30:51
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And so I often find it's easier to just,
00:30:53
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and this is how I get a bunch of tabs,
00:30:55
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instead of going through all my tabs
00:30:56
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and finding the article that I'm looking for,
00:30:58
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I'll just open a new window and go to my clipboard manager
00:31:00
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and I know the links in there because I just used it.
00:31:03
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But if I could search it, that would make it even better.
00:31:06
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Yeah, it's funny the weird things that you end up doing
00:31:10
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that are just making no sense at all,
00:31:11
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but you fall into these patterns, so.
00:31:13
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- All right, I will put links to all of those apps
00:31:15
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in the show notes, I swear.
00:31:17
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- Hey, I mean, for the record, I think this is my,
00:31:22
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I don't know, six or seven time on here,
00:31:24
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►
and I got a message, I woke up to a message from you,
00:31:27
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including notes for the podcast.
00:31:29
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I was very impressed, I think that is a first.
00:31:31
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So for the record, the talk show
00:31:35
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is getting ever more organized.
00:31:37
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So kudos to you.
00:31:39
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- We're doing it, it's the same thing,
00:31:40
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we talked about it with the, Pansarino last week,
00:31:43
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using the iCloud shared notes, which is actually pretty useful.
00:31:48
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It is, except that the, maybe because I'm not in Syria,
00:31:54
◼
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I don't update my Mac for usually a couple months after the update.
00:31:58
◼
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But yeah, it doesn't sync to my iCloud on the Mac.
00:32:03
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But that might be just because I'm not on the current version.
00:32:06
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But it reminds me of one of the irritations I have with Apple,
00:32:12
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like when they do web apps.
00:32:13
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So I have it open in the browser now
00:32:15
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because that obviously syncs.
00:32:17
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But I think the reason why Apple's web apps
00:32:21
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like try to mimic like desktop apps,
00:32:24
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but that makes them frustrating to use
00:32:27
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'cause doing something in a browser
00:32:29
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isn't as efficient or fast or as good of a user experience
00:32:33
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as using a native app without question.
00:32:35
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Whereas there are some web apps that I use,
00:32:38
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like I do all my writing in a web app,
00:32:39
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one called Draft, drafting.com, it's awesome.
00:32:43
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But it's, it's, it's a web, like it embraces
00:32:47
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it being a web app.
00:32:49
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And I think that's the case for all sorts of products.
00:32:52
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Like if you embrace the medium that you're on,
00:32:54
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the user experience can be really great.
00:32:56
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But if you're trying to like mimic one
00:32:58
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that's from somewhere else, it's not nearly as good.
00:33:01
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Anyhow, that is just sort of a random sort of observation.
00:33:05
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I mean, this is the first time I've used the syncing
00:33:08
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or sharing thing for notes.
00:33:12
◼
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- It's weird, I've been doing it for a couple episodes now,
00:33:14
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but I've been running, I'm like you, I'm very reluctant,
00:33:17
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and it always seems like I've got something open
00:33:19
◼
►
and I don't wanna restart, even just restart the machine.
00:33:21
◼
►
I still haven't updated my iMac to Sierra,
00:33:24
◼
►
and that's where I record from, so I have it on my phone,
00:33:28
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and the phone has the new, fancy new,
00:33:31
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share this note with somebody
00:33:32
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and get the changes synced feature,
00:33:34
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but my Mac's version doesn't.
00:33:37
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and then you had the idea to use the iCloud web app,
00:33:40
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which never even occurred to me,
00:33:41
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'cause I never use the iCloud web apps
00:33:44
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for anything other than find my iPhone.
00:33:46
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But it's weird too, because it does try
00:33:50
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to mimic a desktop app, but it's not,
00:33:55
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►
it doesn't look anything like the Mac version,
00:34:00
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►
and it doesn't look like the iPad version either.
00:34:02
◼
►
It's like this, it does look like a desktop app,
00:34:07
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►
but it doesn't look like a Mac one,
00:34:09
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►
and it doesn't look like an iPad app.
00:34:11
◼
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- Yeah, who knows what's going on.
00:34:13
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►
- And there's all, I don't understand
00:34:15
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how anybody uses web apps,
00:34:17
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►
'cause it's like I tried to use the shortcut shift command H
00:34:19
◼
►
to make a text to header, which works in,
00:34:24
◼
►
it's a keyboard shortcut I know
00:34:26
◼
►
from the desktop version of Note,
00:34:28
◼
►
but of course Safari ate that keystroke
00:34:30
◼
►
and tried to take me home.
00:34:34
◼
►
- But it was smart enough to say,
00:34:36
◼
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do you want to, are you sure you want to do that
00:34:38
◼
►
because you've got unsaved changes
00:34:39
◼
►
in this text editing field?
00:34:41
◼
►
I would much prefer an app that just was like written
00:34:45
◼
►
in old 1999 HTML.
00:34:48
◼
►
- Yeah, the ones that I use, like they're ones that,
00:34:52
◼
►
like they are, they're pure web,
00:34:55
◼
►
when they're pure, they're for the web,
00:34:57
◼
►
like just unabashedly.
00:34:59
◼
►
And this is something that I think,
00:35:00
◼
►
I think this is one of the reasons why Google Docs,
00:35:02
◼
►
especially it's gotten better now,
00:35:04
◼
►
but it was very frustrating because it kind of
00:35:06
◼
►
was trying to mimic a desktop interface.
00:35:09
◼
►
I mean, obviously Docs is some amazing things,
00:35:11
◼
►
particularly the collaboration stuff and all that.
00:35:13
◼
►
But I think the apps that I actually like using on the web
00:35:17
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►
and like for like the writing one, for example,
00:35:19
◼
►
it's just a plain field and you get the benefits
00:35:21
◼
►
of a web app where stuff's saved instantly
00:35:23
◼
►
and if anything happens like to your computer,
00:35:26
◼
►
like you never lose data ever.
00:35:28
◼
►
Like it's, to me it works very well.
00:35:31
◼
►
But the other thing that I do
00:35:34
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►
that I think makes it much more tolerable is,
00:35:36
◼
►
oh, speaking of Mac utilities, is Fluid,
00:35:39
◼
►
where you get like a single site browser
00:35:41
◼
►
and then you can make an icon.
00:35:42
◼
►
So basically when I open like Draft for example,
00:35:45
◼
►
or WordPress or MailChimp,
00:35:47
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►
like the various web apps that I use frequently,
00:35:50
◼
►
they all have their own, they're like their own apps.
00:35:53
◼
►
And you click, you make it in Fluid and you click it
00:35:56
◼
►
and it opens up with its own icon in the dock
00:35:58
◼
►
and it's separate, and so it's not buried
00:36:00
◼
►
in my hundreds of tabs, it's like its own distinct entity.
00:36:03
◼
►
And to me, that's another app I cannot live without.
00:36:08
◼
►
Like if I actually had to use web apps inside a browser,
00:36:12
◼
►
like just, I'm so disorganized in general,
00:36:14
◼
►
it'd be intolerable, but Fluid makes it feel
00:36:18
◼
►
like a normal app, which is just
00:36:20
◼
►
from a navigational standpoint.
00:36:23
◼
►
- I have used Fluid in the past for once or twice
00:36:25
◼
►
when I had to use a web app, because it's,
00:36:27
◼
►
sometimes you want it to be a command tab target,
00:36:29
◼
►
but it's not like a real app at all.
00:36:31
◼
►
It's terrible.
00:36:32
◼
►
- No, no, I meant from a navigational standpoint,
00:36:34
◼
►
where to your point, where you can find it very easily
00:36:37
◼
►
and you can go to it.
00:36:38
◼
►
But again, well, I think when you get apps
00:36:42
◼
►
that are mimicking desktop apps in the web,
00:36:45
◼
►
they feel awful.
00:36:46
◼
►
But again, just to use Draft as an example,
00:36:49
◼
►
you open it up and you open an article
00:36:52
◼
►
and all it is is it's a blank page and you type.
00:36:54
◼
►
And it's basically a text editor
00:36:56
◼
►
and it handles markdown and stuff like that.
00:36:58
◼
►
So I find it, there's lots of benefits I find
00:37:02
◼
►
from being a web app, including particularly the,
00:37:04
◼
►
like I've never ever lost stuff that I've written ever.
00:37:08
◼
►
Because even if my computer were to crash
00:37:09
◼
►
or something like stuff doesn't get corrupted,
00:37:12
◼
►
it's just, it's always there.
00:37:14
◼
►
And to me, it's because it's not trying to do too much,
00:37:18
◼
►
not trying to put all these menu bars there
00:37:21
◼
►
and make it feel like it's Word,
00:37:24
◼
►
but now it's on the web, kind of like Google Docs does.
00:37:26
◼
►
and all that sort of thing, it's perfectly,
00:37:30
◼
►
it's more than tolerable, it's downright enjoyable to use,
00:37:33
◼
►
and those are the ones that I really appreciate.
00:37:36
◼
►
- I think it's been a while, but I know that
00:37:39
◼
►
for people of our generation, losing data on your computer
00:37:44
◼
►
used to be like part of life.
00:37:48
◼
►
- Yep, it was just like, "Oh, I guess this is
00:37:51
◼
►
"my unlucky day."
00:37:52
◼
►
- Right, like your system would freeze up,
00:37:54
◼
►
the app would just crash and vanish.
00:37:57
◼
►
No apps in the old days did auto save.
00:38:01
◼
►
You were stuck with the last time you ever hit Command + S
00:38:03
◼
►
and everybody had a horror tale.
00:38:05
◼
►
I don't think it ever really happened to me
00:38:06
◼
►
in a catastrophic way, but everybody knew somebody at least.
00:38:09
◼
►
It wasn't like you had to know somebody
00:38:10
◼
►
who knew somebody who's brother.
00:38:11
◼
►
You knew somebody who had happened to,
00:38:13
◼
►
where they opened up Word or whatever they used,
00:38:16
◼
►
hit Command + N, started writing their paper,
00:38:19
◼
►
got to the end, and that's when,
00:38:21
◼
►
maybe when they went to hit print,
00:38:22
◼
►
the print driver crashed.
00:38:24
◼
►
And because they'd never saved, the whole thing was gone.
00:38:27
◼
►
It was just irrevocable.
00:38:30
◼
►
And there was nothing you could do.
00:38:31
◼
►
There was no cache of temporary saved files.
00:38:35
◼
►
No matter how much of an expert you were at computing,
00:38:38
◼
►
there was absolutely nothing you could do.
00:38:40
◼
►
And we just accepted that, oh, well,
00:38:41
◼
►
I guess I should have hit Command-S.
00:38:44
◼
►
- I know, we blamed ourselves.
00:38:45
◼
►
- I've written about this.
00:38:47
◼
►
And it was actually, the main reason
00:38:50
◼
►
was a common scenario was that that first command s was sort of a pain in the ass because
00:38:54
◼
►
you'd have to pick a location and then pick a file name. And subsequent command s's are
00:38:59
◼
►
always very easy because there's nothing else to do. You've already given it a location
00:39:03
◼
►
and a name and the command s you just, you know, in the old days you did have to wait,
00:39:07
◼
►
you'd have to wait like a second or two for the actual file to write. But it was nowhere
00:39:11
◼
►
near as much of a cognitive hurdle of that first command s would, you know, you know,
00:39:17
◼
►
The right interface, I think this is one of those ways
00:39:19
◼
►
that the original Mac team got it wrong,
00:39:21
◼
►
was in those days, if that's how it was gonna be,
00:39:24
◼
►
where there was no autosave, when you hit Command + N,
00:39:27
◼
►
instead of immediately giving you a new untitled window,
00:39:30
◼
►
it should have immediately forced you
00:39:31
◼
►
to pick a location and a file name.
00:39:35
◼
►
The first thing, before you get that window
00:39:38
◼
►
where you could start typing,
00:39:39
◼
►
you should have had to pick a location and file name.
00:39:45
◼
►
- Well, I think, so one of the things that's great about iOS,
00:39:48
◼
►
and this is another reason I use web apps,
00:39:49
◼
►
is because iOS was from the ground up
00:39:54
◼
►
kind of designed that way, and apps in general
00:39:56
◼
►
are always saving, and they're always syncing,
00:39:58
◼
►
you know, syncing what they have to the cloud.
00:40:01
◼
►
There's no like distinct sort of save process.
00:40:03
◼
►
It's sort of integral to how they work.
00:40:06
◼
►
So I have a lot of apps where I have a iOS version,
00:40:10
◼
►
and then I have the web version on my Mac,
00:40:14
◼
►
And I like those because they're always in sync constantly.
00:40:17
◼
►
Whereas ones that have a Mac app and ones that have an iOS app, the Mac app,
00:40:22
◼
►
the sync is never like perfect every time. Like for me,
00:40:25
◼
►
like if I don't trust the sync that it's going to be synced up every single
00:40:29
◼
►
time, like it almost like to me,
00:40:33
◼
►
that's trumped like the user interface of like, of like using a native app,
00:40:37
◼
►
which I do prefer native apps in general.
00:40:39
◼
►
But if I don't have full confidence that it's going to be synced every single
00:40:43
◼
►
I will put up with the web app just to have that knowledge
00:40:48
◼
►
that's always there, because to me having it always available is key.
00:40:52
◼
►
And I know that Apple tried to rejigger the document model, what was it, back in Lion,
00:40:55
◼
►
to make it more iOS-like.
00:41:02
◼
►
But the problem was, I think that still drives me up the wall.
00:41:04
◼
►
Actually, that's one of the reasons I stopped using iWork.
00:41:10
◼
►
I know they added it back in bits and pieces, and there's some terminal commands you can get to read it.
00:41:13
◼
►
restore like the save as button and stuff. But I know you hold down the option.
00:41:17
◼
►
You're always that what it is. I think you can, you can add a permanently.
00:41:20
◼
►
I think there's a terminal command where you can,
00:41:21
◼
►
you can have it in the menu permanently.
00:41:22
◼
►
So you have to press option every single time. But the,
00:41:25
◼
►
I destroyed so many documents by forgetting to like duplicate and like the auto
00:41:30
◼
►
save because it's, it's, well, it's like the path thing. Like once,
00:41:34
◼
►
once you have the muscle memory and you're used to doing it a certain way,
00:41:38
◼
►
even if that's not the best way, like you're, it's, it's,
00:41:42
◼
►
at least for people who have been using it for years,
00:41:45
◼
►
it's like too late.
00:41:46
◼
►
But anyhow, so now I'm stuck using web apps.
00:41:51
◼
►
But like I said, in the right context, I like them.
00:41:54
◼
►
We're 43 minutes in, we haven't talked about anything.
00:42:00
◼
►
- Anyway, long story short, the AirPods do have Siri commands.
00:42:05
◼
►
That was the best digression ever.
00:42:07
◼
►
I will say this though, those Siri commands
00:42:10
◼
►
controlling the audio on the AirPods, they do work and they've worked remarkably well
00:42:15
◼
►
ever since it was pointed out to me that they work. I don't know why it failed for me the
00:42:18
◼
►
first time. But they're not instantaneous. It's the double tap. There's a moment before
00:42:25
◼
►
you hear the Siri, "Okay, I'm listening," and then there's a moment after that before
00:42:29
◼
►
it'll actually catch everything you say. So it works, but it's nowhere near as instantaneous
00:42:35
◼
►
is just clicking a button on the earphone cable to just go volume up, volume up, or
00:42:41
◼
►
something like that.
00:42:43
◼
►
Interesting.
00:42:44
◼
►
So the only controls that you have on the AirPods are trigger Siri or take them out
00:42:49
◼
►
of your AirPods, right?
00:42:51
◼
►
There's no extra like...
00:42:52
◼
►
There's nothing else.
00:42:53
◼
►
There's no options for like triple clip.
00:42:55
◼
►
You double tap for Siri.
00:42:57
◼
►
There's no way to say that if I triple tap or quadruple tap or something like that to
00:43:01
◼
►
do something else.
00:43:02
◼
►
Maybe they'll do that in the future.
00:43:03
◼
►
Maybe not because it's a little finicky.
00:43:06
◼
►
Overall, this is not a deal breaker for me by any part.
00:43:09
◼
►
The only headphones I wanna use
00:43:11
◼
►
other than the ones I use for podcasting are AirPods.
00:43:14
◼
►
It is though the only minus I can think of with them.
00:43:18
◼
►
- Huh, that's interesting.
00:43:21
◼
►
I'm worried, I know you said that they fit better
00:43:23
◼
►
than the regular ear ones,
00:43:24
◼
►
which don't fit in my ears at all.
00:43:27
◼
►
So I'm gonna get them, I'm very intrigued by them,
00:43:30
◼
►
But that specific point is a little bit of a,
00:43:33
◼
►
it's weird, I can see both.
00:43:34
◼
►
'Cause I have been in a situation
00:43:36
◼
►
where I both want to take them out of my ear,
00:43:37
◼
►
but then I also have to hit pause.
00:43:39
◼
►
So that idea of it doing it once is really compelling.
00:43:42
◼
►
For the same situation, like if you want to talk to somebody
00:43:44
◼
►
and you want to take it out of your ear.
00:43:47
◼
►
But at the same time, I'm worried about fit
00:43:49
◼
►
and I'm worried about the, yeah, the having that control.
00:43:53
◼
►
I use the clicker, I have the Beats ones,
00:43:55
◼
►
and I use that clicker all the time.
00:43:57
◼
►
- I did too with the Beats ones.
00:43:59
◼
►
All right, let's take a break and thank our first sponsor.
00:44:02
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It is our good friends at Backblaze.
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Backblaze, you know these guys.
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I don't know, I've never used a PC,
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so you have to take their word for that.
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But on a Mac, I can guarantee you it is excellent.
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at backblaze.com/daringfireball.
00:44:30
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I say this every time.
00:44:32
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I wish that they would stop sponsoring the show,
00:44:34
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because they would write to me and say, sorry, John, nobody
00:44:37
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is signing up anymore, because everybody
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listens to the talk show is signed up for backblaze.
00:44:41
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I would love it.
00:44:42
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It would make me feel better.
00:44:43
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Even though I do like the money that they
00:44:45
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pay to sponsor the show, I would feel better
00:44:48
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knowing that everybody who is listening to this show
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has some sort of offline, out of their office backup.
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Use it in addition.
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You don't have to use it as your only backup.
00:44:59
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You could, in theory.
00:45:00
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I think backup is one of those things that really should be--
00:45:04
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you should have multiple layers of it.
00:45:06
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So use Time Machine.
00:45:07
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Use Super Duper or something like that
00:45:09
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to make a clone of your startup disk.
00:45:12
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Do those things.
00:45:12
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Hard drives, external hard drives, are relatively cheap.
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You can buy them, especially if you get the spinning disk ones.
00:45:17
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You can get them just for backup, and they're so cheap.
00:45:20
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But having a backup that's off-site is such a--
00:45:26
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I say it every time-- it makes you sleep better.
00:45:28
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It is such a relief to know that everything--
00:45:31
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and backplays has no limit.
00:45:32
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So you think, well, I'd like to sign up,
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but I've got a giant hard drive full of all of these movies
00:45:41
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I don't want to have to decide what I back up on.
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It's unlimited.
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It doesn't matter.
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You pay $5 per Mac per month--
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five bucks a month for each Mac.
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And it doesn't matter how much you have.
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They'll just back it all up.
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The only hitch is that it just takes longer
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for that initial backup
00:45:57
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to actually upload everything you've got.
00:45:59
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So the more data you have, yes,
00:46:01
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there's no magic that will let 10 terabytes update
00:46:06
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It's not gonna happen.
00:46:07
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But however long it takes, once it's updated,
00:46:09
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it just incrementally runs from there.
00:46:12
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I have never noticed it.
00:46:14
◼
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I mean, I've been talking about
00:46:16
◼
►
problems with some other apps that take up space.
00:46:21
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I often have activity monitor running
00:46:23
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and I'm looking at apps that are taking up too much CPU.
00:46:26
◼
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I've never seen back plays pop up into my list of CPU usage.
00:46:30
◼
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It never slows down your machine.
00:46:32
◼
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I have no idea when it runs.
00:46:33
◼
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I don't know, I just set it to the default settings
00:46:35
◼
►
and let it go.
00:46:36
◼
►
I never notice and it's always there
00:46:38
◼
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and when I've checked just to see what's in my back plays,
00:46:40
◼
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it's always up to date.
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It is an amazing service.
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The Mac software is written by former Apple engineers.
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It's totally native.
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It's just a simple control panel and the system preferences.
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And there's no gimmicks or additional charges.
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That's the offer and that's it.
00:46:58
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So go to backblaze.com/daringfireball.
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You won't be charged a nickel before then.
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And then you just start paying after that.
00:47:10
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So my thanks to Backblaze.
00:47:12
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Go sign up for them.
00:47:13
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Sign up your parents.
00:47:14
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Sign up anybody you know.
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Get everybody backed up.
00:47:18
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- I am a happy customer.
00:47:20
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- It's a great service.
00:47:25
◼
►
All right, what else we got on the agenda?
00:47:28
◼
►
Did you see on Twitter, I tweeted a couple,
00:47:30
◼
►
like a week or two ago that Amy's watch fell apart?
00:47:33
◼
►
- I did, yes.
00:47:35
◼
►
It's funny because you, well, I think you're gonna describe
00:47:38
◼
►
what happened, but my wife has been complaining
00:47:40
◼
►
that her watch is getting really bad
00:47:42
◼
►
at heart rate monitoring.
00:47:44
◼
►
- Oh, it's gonna fall apart.
00:47:45
◼
►
- Yeah, I know, so.
00:47:47
◼
►
- I guarantee it, she's probably like three weeks,
00:47:49
◼
►
three weeks ahead of Amy.
00:47:51
◼
►
So that's what happened.
00:47:53
◼
►
So Amy has a 38 millimeter stainless steel Apple Watch
00:47:58
◼
►
that was-- - Yep, same as my watch.
00:47:59
◼
►
- Just very early, maybe even ordered,
00:48:01
◼
►
like when they first went on sale,
00:48:03
◼
►
and they were famously back ordered for a while.
00:48:06
◼
►
So sometime in May of last year is when she got it.
00:48:09
◼
►
She's worn it not necessarily every day,
00:48:12
◼
►
but she's worn it most days,
00:48:14
◼
►
and she loves it for the fitness tracking.
00:48:16
◼
►
It is first and foremost a fitness tracker for her.
00:48:19
◼
►
She wears it when she works out.
00:48:20
◼
►
She wears it to fill her circles every day.
00:48:22
◼
►
And a couple of weeks ago, I'm not quite sure exactly,
00:48:26
◼
►
she just started vaguely, again, she blames me
00:48:29
◼
►
for everything that goes wrong with every Apple product.
00:48:31
◼
►
It's not even like she asks for help, she just blames me.
00:48:35
◼
►
And she blamed me that she was getting less credit
00:48:39
◼
►
for things and, you know, like some things
00:48:42
◼
►
like a workout in the gym, maybe some days you are feeling it
00:48:47
◼
►
and you're more motivated or you have more energy
00:48:49
◼
►
and you're an hour doing the same exercise,
00:48:53
◼
►
maybe you do burn more calories
00:48:55
◼
►
because you're more into it.
00:48:57
◼
►
But she was getting fewer calories burned counted,
00:49:01
◼
►
even for things like walking to school to pick Jonas up,
00:49:04
◼
►
if she set like a walk thing, which you'd think,
00:49:06
◼
►
which should be very, very close every single day,
00:49:09
◼
►
and usually used to be, and hers was very low.
00:49:12
◼
►
And then she upgraded to watchOS 3 and it went the other way and she started getting
00:49:15
◼
►
like seemingly extra credit for her calories burned and she didn't complain as much then
00:49:21
◼
►
but she still thought something was flaky.
00:49:23
◼
►
And then the other, about a week ago, she woke up and she went to take her watch off
00:49:27
◼
►
the charger and the whole back just stuck to the magnetic charger.
00:49:31
◼
►
Yeah, I think you had mentioned that.
00:49:34
◼
►
So after my wife was like literally like two days after you talked about that, she was
00:49:40
◼
►
complaining of the same thing about the track not working so I took the charger
00:49:43
◼
►
and I was like did it like a bunch of times attaching and unattaching it
00:49:47
◼
►
seems would pop off it hasn't popped off yet but no same situation she's she's
00:49:51
◼
►
worn it pretty much daily since she got it at the same time period and has the
00:49:55
◼
►
exact same same model has exact same complaints so yeah I and I I'm looking
00:50:00
◼
►
forward to getting a look at the watch it hurts apparently so seems like a
00:50:03
◼
►
common failure I tweeted a picture of it and and cracked a very snarky joke
00:50:09
◼
►
because I happened to follow a couple of other watch things on Twitter and I
00:50:14
◼
►
forget who it was what was the company pet pet tech had came out with a new
00:50:19
◼
►
watch and I I tweeted the same day I tweeted a link to this new petech watch
00:50:26
◼
►
and you know which is like a $25,000 dive watch and I said I wonder what type
00:50:34
◼
►
but glued Patek to seal the case back.
00:50:38
◼
►
And I, of course, I have way too many followers.
00:50:41
◼
►
- Of course people took it way too seriously.
00:50:42
◼
►
- Right, I can't tweet something like that
00:50:44
◼
►
without having two or three, four people
00:50:46
◼
►
think I'm being serious, and then they were like,
00:50:49
◼
►
Patek doesn't glue their watches together, John.
00:50:51
◼
►
And it was like, yes, I know.
00:50:53
◼
►
- I know, you feel bad kind of making fun of them
00:50:56
◼
►
'cause they're trying to help,
00:50:57
◼
►
but it's the earnestness in the replies that it,
00:51:00
◼
►
I get that sometimes as well.
00:51:03
◼
►
So, but the other, the more interesting thing was I got a whole bunch of replies from people
00:51:08
◼
►
who were like, "Same thing happened to me.
00:51:10
◼
►
Same thing happened to me."
00:51:13
◼
►
Seems like it's more common with the stainless steel ones, at least anecdotally based on
00:51:18
◼
►
Twitter followers who tweeted me about it.
00:51:21
◼
►
It, because it wasn't only steel ones, but it was primarily steel ones.
00:51:26
◼
►
And knowing that the aluminum sport models sell in greater quantity, you would think
00:51:31
◼
►
that if it was as likely to happen to any other watch,
00:51:33
◼
►
it would be mostly the sport models.
00:51:35
◼
►
So I think that the problem is more typical with the steel.
00:51:37
◼
►
I don't know if it's because they went through
00:51:41
◼
►
a different production line, and that was the production line
00:51:44
◼
►
where the problem was.
00:51:45
◼
►
I don't know if it was that maybe they used the same glue,
00:51:48
◼
►
but that glue adhesed better to aluminum than to steel.
00:51:53
◼
►
Could just be, honestly, if you think about it,
00:51:55
◼
►
it could just be Apple has, what, 10 years of expertise
00:51:59
◼
►
working with aluminum and stainless steel is relatively new to their...
00:52:04
◼
►
Yeah, that's probably the explanation right there.
00:52:08
◼
►
But anyway, long story short, a whole bunch of people wrote and said it happened to them.
00:52:12
◼
►
They took it to the Apple Store and it was, you know, you got to wait.
00:52:14
◼
►
They don't just give you a replacement on the spot, but they take the watch away and
00:52:18
◼
►
give you a replacement even if it's out of warranty.
00:52:21
◼
►
And Amy's was out of warranty because I haven't bought AppleCare for any Apple products since
00:52:29
◼
►
I took it to the Apple store.
00:52:30
◼
►
I did not seem to be recognized, which I'm always worried about, because I want to report
00:52:34
◼
►
on this as, you know, like what if I'm just a normal Apple customer?
00:52:38
◼
►
What happens when you take your Apple Watch in after it falls apart on the charger?
00:52:44
◼
►
I'm pretty sure that the genius guy I dealt with didn't recognize me.
00:52:52
◼
►
As soon as I described the problem, he started typing it into his iPod there.
00:52:56
◼
►
The trouble with shooting things...
00:52:58
◼
►
Well, he didn't.
00:53:01
◼
►
It didn't seem-- at first-- and he looked it up,
00:53:03
◼
►
and he had to type in the serial number.
00:53:05
◼
►
And then when he described the problem, he said, oh, good.
00:53:10
◼
►
Even though this is not a warranty, I can cover this.
00:53:13
◼
►
And it seemed new to him.
00:53:14
◼
►
And then he laughed and said the first question--
00:53:18
◼
►
I'd already told him how it was discovered
00:53:20
◼
►
that it wasn't dropped or anything, just pulling it off
00:53:23
◼
►
the charger.
00:53:23
◼
►
And he said, oh, the first question
00:53:25
◼
►
is, did the customer discover the problem removing
00:53:27
◼
►
a watch from the charger.
00:53:29
◼
►
- Yeah, so it's definitely a known thing.
00:53:31
◼
►
It's in the system. - It's so known, yeah.
00:53:33
◼
►
It's so known that there's a chain through the,
00:53:35
◼
►
you know, how did this happen, that begins with,
00:53:38
◼
►
did it happen pulling the watch off the charger?
00:53:41
◼
►
So, you know, as we record, the watch is in that
00:53:45
◼
►
three to five day, we'll tell you when it comes back, period.
00:53:48
◼
►
I'm curious if they're gonna, if they replace it,
00:53:52
◼
►
if they're going to replace it with a Series Zero
00:53:55
◼
►
or a Series One.
00:53:57
◼
►
Yeah, that's a good question.
00:54:00
◼
►
The trouble with the app, I kind of want it because I'm on this swimming thing now, so
00:54:04
◼
►
I kind of want to get the, well first off, Craig Hockenberry is apparently a popular
00:54:11
◼
►
guest in this episode, but he's written about that he's been using the original Apple Watch
00:54:15
◼
►
for swimming ever since he got it, and he's swimming in the ocean where it's probably,
00:54:19
◼
►
I would imagine the corrosiveness is more of a problem.
00:54:23
◼
►
But the problem is that the workout app does not, you can't get the swimming on the original
00:54:29
◼
►
Apple Watch, even with the updated OS, like Apple, it's just not included.
00:54:33
◼
►
So you have to get a new watch.
00:54:35
◼
►
The problem is, I mean, I've kind of stopped wearing the Apple Watch in day-to-day things.
00:54:41
◼
►
For me, I've trimmed my notifications so much that when I get a notification, I almost
00:54:46
◼
►
always want to deal with it on the phone anyway.
00:54:49
◼
►
I'm just super aggressive about not getting hardly any notifications, but and the delay
00:54:55
◼
►
in looking at the time was just that was kind of, I got fed up with it.
00:55:00
◼
►
So I'm back to a regular watch most of the time, but I would like to, I'd still like
00:55:05
◼
►
to track, you know, the actual exercising.
00:55:08
◼
►
So I want to get a, maybe I'm considering getting a new one.
00:55:11
◼
►
The problem is I personally just don't find the aluminum ones good looking at all.
00:55:16
◼
►
Like to me, the stainless steel still looks so much better.
00:55:19
◼
►
And actually the one that looks really great is the white one.
00:55:22
◼
►
So but the problem is I can't really justify getting the new edition.
00:55:28
◼
►
If I'm just using it for workouts, like, well, maybe I'll start wearing it day to day.
00:55:32
◼
►
I'm like, well, no, I don't know.
00:55:34
◼
►
So I'm stuck in paralysis right now, but we'll see.
00:55:39
◼
►
I'll probably get one of the sport ones.
00:55:41
◼
►
I think it would be, I should anyway, just to see what it's like, how it's improved
00:55:46
◼
►
relative to the current one.
00:55:47
◼
►
- Yeah, anyway, that was my story about the Apple Watch.
00:55:50
◼
►
So I wonder--
00:55:53
◼
►
- I will, I look forward, I don't look forward,
00:55:56
◼
►
but it sounds like I will be corroborating it soon.
00:55:58
◼
►
Exact same symptoms that you had.
00:56:01
◼
►
- Do you wanna talk about,
00:56:04
◼
►
I don't wanna spend a long time on it,
00:56:05
◼
►
but this story of Dash, the developer of the Dash app,
00:56:10
◼
►
anybody who's been reading Tearing Fireball
00:56:14
◼
►
over the last week would know it.
00:56:16
◼
►
Long story short, do you want to summarize it?
00:56:21
◼
►
It's such a weird story.
00:56:24
◼
►
- Yeah, I think that, well, I think that the,
00:56:26
◼
►
I personally don't want to spend on tech quality
00:56:28
◼
►
in part because it's still kind of unclear.
00:56:31
◼
►
There's a new story that Renee Ritchie wrote this morning
00:56:34
◼
►
that I haven't fully read that apparently is,
00:56:36
◼
►
more details are coming out.
00:56:38
◼
►
And this is one of those things like it's,
00:56:41
◼
►
there's going to be inherent speculation here.
00:56:44
◼
►
I think the only comment I would have,
00:56:46
◼
►
like it sounds like this guy made some mistakes
00:56:49
◼
►
and probably, you know, what's the saying?
00:56:51
◼
►
Like the coverup is always worse than the crime
00:56:54
◼
►
and like wasn't fully transparent about his situation.
00:56:59
◼
►
And so it's easy to look at it and put in balance
00:57:02
◼
►
and say, well, Apple gave him a chance and did this stuff
00:57:05
◼
►
and he did these bad things.
00:57:06
◼
►
And you kind of weigh the situation
00:57:08
◼
►
as one against the other.
00:57:09
◼
►
The only, I guess the only pushback I would have to that
00:57:13
◼
►
is we're dealing, on one side is the biggest corporation
00:57:17
◼
►
in the world where this particular developer
00:57:20
◼
►
and app doesn't make any difference to their bottom line.
00:57:24
◼
►
And you have this other guy where like this is his life,
00:57:26
◼
►
it's his job.
00:57:27
◼
►
And that changes sort of the moral calculus
00:57:32
◼
►
for lack of a better term.
00:57:33
◼
►
Like it sounds like this guy definitely screwed up
00:57:35
◼
►
and he kind of covered his tracks.
00:57:38
◼
►
And you could be a very moralistic and legalistic about it
00:57:42
◼
►
and say like, "Sorry, you screwed up.
00:57:44
◼
►
"Apple's justified here."
00:57:45
◼
►
And that's not wrong, but I think it's on Apple.
00:57:50
◼
►
And you have this situation with Google
00:57:52
◼
►
with YouTube accounts being suspended
00:57:54
◼
►
or AdSense, like just money disappearing.
00:57:56
◼
►
This has happened again and again,
00:57:58
◼
►
where the balance of power and the balance of injury
00:58:02
◼
►
is so out of whack that I think it behooves
00:58:06
◼
►
the sort of big players to have more grace
00:58:10
◼
►
and more understanding.
00:58:11
◼
►
And hopefully that's the way it's gonna work out.
00:58:13
◼
►
But I think that's just the main point I would make.
00:58:15
◼
►
This isn't like a one to one,
00:58:16
◼
►
like who's right and who's wrong.
00:58:18
◼
►
You have to consider like what are the consequences
00:58:20
◼
►
of these actions.
00:58:22
◼
►
And hopefully it's gonna all work out in the end.
00:58:24
◼
►
And fortunately for this guy,
00:58:25
◼
►
he's selling an app for developers,
00:58:27
◼
►
so him not being in the Mac App Store in particular,
00:58:31
◼
►
he'll probably be okay.
00:58:34
◼
►
But anyhow, that's just my kind of big picture
00:58:37
◼
►
sort of observation about the whole thing.
00:58:39
◼
►
Yeah, the developer's name is Bogd--
00:58:41
◼
►
I hope I pronounced it close enough.
00:58:43
◼
►
He's from Romania, Bogdan Popescu.
00:58:48
◼
►
And he's still, I think, is fairly young.
00:58:51
◼
►
And it was confusing at first, because more or less
00:58:54
◼
►
the story is that there were two developer accounts tied
00:58:57
◼
►
that were related to the same bank account and same credit
00:59:01
◼
►
And the one account was full of mostly cheesy apps.
00:59:06
◼
►
And the other account only had the Dash apps.
00:59:10
◼
►
Dash is an API browser and snippet browser.
00:59:16
◼
►
And snippets meaning you can enter your own little snippets
00:59:18
◼
►
of text, like if you do tech support or something like that
00:59:21
◼
►
and you have a bunch of frequently used responses,
00:59:24
◼
►
you can invoke Dash, type a couple of letters
00:59:26
◼
►
to get the saved snippet you want, and boom, there it is,
00:59:30
◼
►
pasted into your email.
00:59:32
◼
►
And it's a really great app.
00:59:34
◼
►
I don't do enough programming anymore
00:59:36
◼
►
that it's really been useful, but I can see that it's super, super useful.
00:59:41
◼
►
I know that people use it even instead, like Mac developers use it instead of Xcode for
00:59:48
◼
►
document browsing.
00:59:49
◼
►
It's so good.
00:59:51
◼
►
For people who are doing things that are not Xcode, like PHP or Perl or something like
00:59:56
◼
►
that, it can be way better than the documentation that's typically invoked through Terminal
01:00:02
◼
►
or something like that.
01:00:05
◼
►
a really well-regarded app.
01:00:07
◼
►
There's an iOS version and stuff like that.
01:00:08
◼
►
And people, at first, when this guy's developer account did--
01:00:11
◼
►
what Apple did at first was yank all of it.
01:00:13
◼
►
It was all taken off the store.
01:00:15
◼
►
And this guy said, hey, they said I did app review fraud.
01:00:18
◼
►
I don't-- I didn't do that.
01:00:20
◼
►
And people really did--
01:00:21
◼
►
I think rightly so.
01:00:22
◼
►
And I think it was the right way for the community to go.
01:00:25
◼
►
We're like, hey, I believe this guy, because his apps
01:00:28
◼
►
don't look scammy at all.
01:00:29
◼
►
I use them and love them.
01:00:30
◼
►
These are good apps.
01:00:31
◼
►
And it went from there.
01:00:34
◼
►
And I think it was good.
01:00:36
◼
►
I didn't link to it at first, and I'm glad I didn't.
01:00:39
◼
►
I felt like my spidey sense kicked in,
01:00:40
◼
►
'cause I just felt like there was something fishy going on.
01:00:43
◼
►
Like it just didn't seem like the whole story was out,
01:00:45
◼
►
so I didn't link.
01:00:47
◼
►
I will say I feel a little bad that I wrote about this.
01:00:53
◼
►
I know I got to talk to Apple the day that they said,
01:00:57
◼
►
they issued a statement about what happened.
01:00:59
◼
►
And I linked to Dalrymple's report about it,
01:01:03
◼
►
I didn't want to post a major article about it myself, but I ended up doing so anyway.
01:01:09
◼
►
But I felt a little bad posting about it when I did because it seemed like we were only
01:01:17
◼
►
getting apple-side of the story, and my instinct was we should wait to hear Popescu's side
01:01:22
◼
►
too. But I was getting on an airplane. I was away for the weekend, and I didn't want to
01:01:27
◼
►
wait four hours or trust that I'd be able to work on the Wi-Fi, which is in hindsight.
01:01:33
◼
►
feel like it worked out. I don't feel like I wrote anything that I had to retract or anything like
01:01:36
◼
►
that. But in hindsight, I feel like that was kind of a bad decision. I feel like I should have been
01:01:44
◼
►
willing to completely miss the story or be way late on it than only hear one side of it, even
01:01:52
◼
►
though I think Apple's side was more right than wrong. Yeah, well, the other big point I would
01:01:58
◼
►
make is, and I saw it and it's hard to know for sure what Apple's thinking was around
01:02:03
◼
►
this, but I certainly saw this on Twitter, is people were being very skeptical.
01:02:07
◼
►
Oh, someone would share their credit card or they'd share a bank account.
01:02:10
◼
►
Like that is absolutely the reality in lots of countries.
01:02:13
◼
►
And I think that, you know, in the States, the idea that you would, and this is for sure,
01:02:19
◼
►
this is Apple's biggest error for sure.
01:02:20
◼
►
Like they, and they even said they were sending the notifications to the fraudulent account,
01:02:25
◼
►
not even though the two accounts were joined.
01:02:27
◼
►
So because they assume that if they have the same credit card, they must be the same developer.
01:02:32
◼
►
But when I was, and I deal with this not just because I live internationally, but when I
01:02:36
◼
►
was at Microsoft and we were setting up the Windows App Store originally, this was one
01:02:40
◼
►
of the biggest problems we had to deal with.
01:02:41
◼
►
And it was very difficult, is that like Apple, the developer accounts needed to have a credit
01:02:47
◼
►
card and there's a nominal cost.
01:02:50
◼
►
But it turns out it's really hard to get a credit card in many countries of the world.
01:02:54
◼
►
And even if you do have a credit card, it often doesn't work with a US-based transaction
01:03:00
◼
►
because for fraud or whatever, or they just don't do internet, they only work inside
01:03:03
◼
►
the country.
01:03:04
◼
►
And it was like a multi-month project to get workarounds for this to work.
01:03:08
◼
►
So the point being like this idea that to assume that because two accounts use the same
01:03:14
◼
►
credit card, they're linked, that's in lots of countries, that may not be the case.
01:03:19
◼
►
And it's very reasonable that that may not be the case.
01:03:21
◼
►
And I think, so in reaction in general, I think there wasn't enough of an appreciation
01:03:25
◼
►
that that might be the case.
01:03:27
◼
►
And again, reading the Rene article, he says that the other person was actually his mom.
01:03:31
◼
►
That's why he was being kind of cagey about it.
01:03:34
◼
►
But those particular details, I think, I just have wildly different reactions.
01:03:41
◼
►
Some people immediately assume that that sounds ridiculous and fraudulent.
01:03:44
◼
►
From my reaction, I can completely believe that's the case.
01:03:48
◼
►
And the other thing with Apple is now that the App Store and this decision-making was
01:03:52
◼
►
going up to Phil Schiller, Phil Schiller did not set up the App Store.
01:03:57
◼
►
That was under EdiQ.
01:03:59
◼
►
And the reason why I think that's relevant is he didn't…
01:04:03
◼
►
I don't know, but I think it's reasonable to presume that Phil may not be familiar with
01:04:11
◼
►
these sorts of things, like the hassles of credit cards in different countries and bank
01:04:16
◼
►
accounts and why they might be combined, just not because he's dumb or doesn't care,
01:04:20
◼
►
but he didn't have to go through the pain of figuring out all the workarounds to get
01:04:23
◼
►
that set up.
01:04:24
◼
►
Like, Eddy Cue's team had to figure that out when they set up the iTunes Music Store
01:04:27
◼
►
and they set up the App Store the first time.
01:04:29
◼
►
And if you don't even know about that, then immediately it sounds super sketchy.
01:04:34
◼
►
Whereas if you do know about that, and so my initial reaction, and I was to be totally
01:04:40
◼
►
believe it, 'cause it's super believable
01:04:43
◼
►
if you understand the circumstances of different countries
01:04:46
◼
►
that the infrastructure isn't there.
01:04:48
◼
►
And I still think that, again, I think it was more like
01:04:52
◼
►
the coverup was worse than the,
01:04:53
◼
►
I think in broad strokes, there's probably,
01:04:57
◼
►
like his story I think is,
01:04:59
◼
►
I still tend to think it's mostly true.
01:05:01
◼
►
I think he absolutely made mistakes.
01:05:02
◼
►
And this is where I get to that sort of my original point,
01:05:05
◼
►
if you weigh it in the balance.
01:05:06
◼
►
Did he make mistakes?
01:05:07
◼
►
It seems clear he did.
01:05:09
◼
►
But when you consider that,
01:05:12
◼
►
if you take the totality of the situation
01:05:14
◼
►
and understanding different markets
01:05:16
◼
►
and the credit card thing and the bank account thing
01:05:18
◼
►
and them starting out as a young developer,
01:05:20
◼
►
it would be nice to have a little more slack
01:05:25
◼
►
and mercy, for lack of a better word, in this situation.
01:05:28
◼
►
And I do hope it turns out in the long run.
01:05:31
◼
►
- I definitely suspected, you and I are on a slack
01:05:34
◼
►
where we talked about this before it went public
01:05:36
◼
►
And I was early on thought, hey, I think there's an English
01:05:40
◼
►
as a second language problem here, you know,
01:05:42
◼
►
'cause I suspect that Popescu speaks,
01:05:45
◼
►
we now know Romanian is his first language
01:05:49
◼
►
and English as a second language.
01:05:50
◼
►
His written English is excellent, truly excellent.
01:05:54
◼
►
And I could see why some people would notice it,
01:05:55
◼
►
but I see certain telltale signs that say
01:05:57
◼
►
that there's just like a certain stiffness to it
01:05:59
◼
►
that to me reads like English as a second language.
01:06:02
◼
►
And even no matter how good it is,
01:06:06
◼
►
and you know this firsthand, living in Taipei,
01:06:10
◼
►
that nuance is the hardest thing to get, right?
01:06:14
◼
►
It's in a subtle, and this is a situation
01:06:18
◼
►
that required nuance, and I definitely think
01:06:21
◼
►
that there was, I think that there was certain
01:06:26
◼
►
bits of nuance that slipped between the cracks,
01:06:29
◼
►
and I think, to your point about credit cards
01:06:33
◼
►
and bank accounts from Romania that work with US credit
01:06:38
◼
►
and bank account and iTunes systems and stuff like that.
01:06:41
◼
►
I think there were some cultural differences
01:06:45
◼
►
that were even harder to match up
01:06:50
◼
►
because of the English as a second language thing.
01:06:52
◼
►
And the whole thing to me was,
01:06:55
◼
►
no matter what the true story is,
01:06:57
◼
►
I can't help but think that this was sort of
01:06:59
◼
►
a perfect storm of problems.
01:07:03
◼
►
by which I mean that part of the blow up on Twitter
01:07:07
◼
►
against Apple when this guy's account was initially yanked
01:07:12
◼
►
was sort of, and rightly so,
01:07:15
◼
►
well, maybe not rightly so, but justifiably so,
01:07:17
◼
►
from the developer community of,
01:07:21
◼
►
wow, here's a world where your entire livelihood
01:07:25
◼
►
can be pulled by Apple
01:07:28
◼
►
and they don't even show you the evidence against you,
01:07:32
◼
►
which is kind of terrifying.
01:07:34
◼
►
And Brent Simmons has written, wrote a good piece about that
01:07:41
◼
►
that I agreed with largely that there's a reason why
01:07:45
◼
►
the foundation of most modern judicial systems
01:07:50
◼
►
involve the right to be able to face the evidence
01:07:55
◼
►
that you're charged with.
01:07:56
◼
►
That the government can't just come and say,
01:07:59
◼
►
we know that you committed this crime,
01:08:01
◼
►
so therefore you're going to prison.
01:08:03
◼
►
Doesn't work like that.
01:08:04
◼
►
Well, this isn't a judicial system.
01:08:07
◼
►
This isn't the law of the land.
01:08:08
◼
►
Apple, it's within Apple's rights as a private company
01:08:10
◼
►
to do what they want.
01:08:11
◼
►
I do think though, in hindsight,
01:08:16
◼
►
as more of this story has come out, as much of it has,
01:08:19
◼
►
I think the one thing you can look at and say,
01:08:21
◼
►
well, Apple surely deals with actual fraud,
01:08:24
◼
►
outright fraud, on a daily basis.
01:08:27
◼
►
I think that the App Store anti-fraud team is very busy,
01:08:32
◼
►
seven days a week.
01:08:33
◼
►
I think it's something that this is the first time
01:08:37
◼
►
in all the years the App Store's been up
01:08:38
◼
►
that something like this has come to light
01:08:41
◼
►
where somebody might have had their account pulled
01:08:44
◼
►
and maybe shouldn't have.
01:08:47
◼
►
- Right, 'cause most of them are probably just,
01:08:48
◼
►
they're pure fraudsters, so when they disappear
01:08:50
◼
►
and no one notices.
01:08:51
◼
►
It was the fraud account tied to the legitimate account
01:08:56
◼
►
that I think made this unfortunate.
01:08:59
◼
►
And yeah, and it's a very fair point,
01:09:04
◼
►
and it's the same thing with Google and YouTube
01:09:06
◼
►
and any of these other sites that deal with this.
01:09:08
◼
►
I mean, they're dealing with scale,
01:09:10
◼
►
and it's hard from an individual perspective
01:09:15
◼
►
unless you've actually worked at these companies.
01:09:18
◼
►
I told this story before where,
01:09:20
◼
►
I think it was like my second day at Microsoft,
01:09:22
◼
►
and I was in like some business,
01:09:23
◼
►
like a monthly business review sort of meeting,
01:09:25
◼
►
and they're just going down this list,
01:09:26
◼
►
they're talking about, oh, X percentage in Brazil,
01:09:28
◼
►
and then about Eastern Europe,
01:09:29
◼
►
and it was mind blowing,
01:09:31
◼
►
like just the casualness that they were talking about,
01:09:33
◼
►
like massive regions of the world,
01:09:35
◼
►
and like the user numbers and engagement
01:09:37
◼
►
and stuff like that.
01:09:38
◼
►
And you get used to it after a while once you're there,
01:09:41
◼
►
but the scale that these companies are operating on,
01:09:45
◼
►
they can't, you know, there's a limit between doing
01:09:48
◼
►
a sort of one-on-one judicious review
01:09:50
◼
►
and needing to have systematic approaches.
01:09:53
◼
►
And I did find it encouraging that,
01:09:57
◼
►
the phone call I posted that Apple
01:09:58
◼
►
was engaging with him one-on-one.
01:10:00
◼
►
I still, I'm still unclear why Apple suddenly went out
01:10:03
◼
►
with a press release and did this big thing.
01:10:05
◼
►
I would have liked to,
01:10:07
◼
►
but I can have sympathy for both sides.
01:10:10
◼
►
I've been fortunate to see both sides.
01:10:13
◼
►
But the challenge for both is if you're Apple,
01:10:17
◼
►
because you're dealing with scale,
01:10:19
◼
►
like I said, once I was at Microsoft
01:10:20
◼
►
and I got used to the scale stuff,
01:10:21
◼
►
like it just became normal,
01:10:23
◼
►
But it's not normal.
01:10:24
◼
►
It's a very sort of narrow way to view the world,
01:10:29
◼
►
to just view it at scale
01:10:31
◼
►
and not to forget about the individual sort of level.
01:10:34
◼
►
And you could see how that could happen
01:10:39
◼
►
on the management side.
01:10:40
◼
►
And you have this sort of mismatch
01:10:41
◼
►
of the individual perspective
01:10:43
◼
►
versus the en masse perspective.
01:10:45
◼
►
And it's a hard problem.
01:10:46
◼
►
It's a hard problem for both sides.
01:10:48
◼
►
- One of the things that- - And it's exacerbated
01:10:52
◼
►
by the cultural things and the international things
01:10:55
◼
►
and the language things.
01:10:56
◼
►
- One of the things that's most extraordinary
01:10:57
◼
►
about it though is that we know from,
01:11:00
◼
►
and you know, right or wrong,
01:11:02
◼
►
but one of the things that Popescu did
01:11:04
◼
►
was record a phone call from Apple Developer Relations.
01:11:08
◼
►
And we know from the guy from Apple who spoke to him
01:11:10
◼
►
that this clearly did percolate up to the level
01:11:13
◼
►
where Phil Schiller was fully aware of it, right?
01:11:15
◼
►
Which is kind of amazing, you know,
01:11:17
◼
►
in terms of the scale and in terms of where this got to
01:11:20
◼
►
that this one man indie developer's problems
01:11:25
◼
►
with being somehow tied to a different account
01:11:29
◼
►
or a joint account or however you want to put it
01:11:31
◼
►
and what should happen, whatever,
01:11:33
◼
►
it percolated up to the point where Phil Schiller
01:11:35
◼
►
was fully informed on it and was making decisions on it,
01:11:38
◼
►
which is really kind of extraordinary.
01:11:40
◼
►
- Yeah, and I'm not sure if it's a good thing, right?
01:11:42
◼
►
It kind of speaks to there being a lack of process here.
01:11:46
◼
►
I'm not sure if that's the sort of decision
01:11:47
◼
►
that should percolate that high,
01:11:50
◼
►
But again, it might have been,
01:11:51
◼
►
I think there was the extraordinary circumstance here,
01:11:53
◼
►
is that the combination of legitimate and illegitimate,
01:11:57
◼
►
whereas most fraudsters are just illegitimate,
01:11:59
◼
►
so they get caught and they're deleted
01:12:02
◼
►
and no one knows and no one cares.
01:12:03
◼
►
It was the combination here
01:12:05
◼
►
and Apple tying those two accounts together
01:12:08
◼
►
because of the same credit card,
01:12:09
◼
►
and not sending the notices to the account as a whole,
01:12:14
◼
►
only sending it to the fraudulent account.
01:12:16
◼
►
But anyhow, I hope it works out.
01:12:19
◼
►
I feel bad for the guy.
01:12:20
◼
►
It's one of those things you need to point and say,
01:12:22
◼
►
oh, you should have been more clear and upfront
01:12:24
◼
►
with exactly what was going on and revealed everything.
01:12:27
◼
►
But it's one of those things like
01:12:28
◼
►
if you were in the same situation and,
01:12:31
◼
►
I guess I take that there,
01:12:33
◼
►
but for the grace of God go I sort of thing.
01:12:35
◼
►
And with tremendous gratitude that my business
01:12:37
◼
►
is based on the open web and is not a closed ecosystem
01:12:41
◼
►
with no sideloading, no way around
01:12:43
◼
►
the sort of Apple gatekeeper.
01:12:47
◼
►
- All right, I think that's enough for a short segment
01:12:49
◼
►
on Dash, but hopefully I agree the same way.
01:12:52
◼
►
I hope that somehow this still works out
01:12:53
◼
►
such that Dash can get back into the App Store
01:12:56
◼
►
'cause it really is a good app
01:12:57
◼
►
and I really do think ultimately
01:12:59
◼
►
the guy has good intentions
01:13:00
◼
►
and the quality of the work is--
01:13:03
◼
►
- Yeah, and like a death penalty,
01:13:05
◼
►
I mean, it's not physical death,
01:13:07
◼
►
but like death of the app and his company.
01:13:10
◼
►
I mean, maybe I'm just a softy,
01:13:12
◼
►
but it seems like a bit of a bummer.
01:13:15
◼
►
- Yeah, well the good news is, worst case scenario,
01:13:19
◼
►
we've still got the Mac app that he can,
01:13:21
◼
►
the Mac app can run outside the App Store and do his own.
01:13:25
◼
►
He's already had, you know,
01:13:26
◼
►
you can already get it outside the App Store.
01:13:28
◼
►
And he has a system in place so that people
01:13:31
◼
►
who bought it through the App Store
01:13:32
◼
►
can get the non-App Store version
01:13:34
◼
►
without having to pay for it again, so.
01:13:37
◼
►
It's not the worst case.
01:13:37
◼
►
- The other thing that, I guess the thing
01:13:38
◼
►
that bums me out about this episode,
01:13:40
◼
►
and a lot of stuff with Apple,
01:13:41
◼
►
is there's a certain segment that is so instinctual
01:13:46
◼
►
in defending Apple, no matter what.
01:13:49
◼
►
And so you had a lot of people,
01:13:51
◼
►
particularly developers that were very skeptical of Apple
01:13:54
◼
►
and defending this guy, which was great.
01:13:56
◼
►
But meantime, there's a lot of people on Twitter
01:13:58
◼
►
that are regarding, oh no, for sure he did wrong.
01:14:01
◼
►
It just sort of just, it became tribalistic,
01:14:05
◼
►
I think, too quickly.
01:14:06
◼
►
And then you kind of had this weird scenario where,
01:14:08
◼
►
I think you, and again, we talked to some of these guys,
01:14:11
◼
►
who were defending him, and they kind of felt out on an island because they're like saying
01:14:14
◼
►
that Apple did a bad thing and you're getting these sort of attacks on social media.
01:14:19
◼
►
And so as soon as Apple releases some sort of evidence that means it's right, the instinct
01:14:23
◼
►
for those people who initially defended the developer is like snap to the other side.
01:14:26
◼
►
It's like, "Oh, okay, I did my best, but no, he's going wrong."
01:14:30
◼
►
And the truth is, as with the vast majority of things, there's gray in the middle, both
01:14:33
◼
►
sides screwed up.
01:14:36
◼
►
Apple particularly in the communications point, that's definitely a screw up.
01:14:39
◼
►
And I don't know, just black, this is,
01:14:43
◼
►
we're not getting philosophical,
01:14:45
◼
►
but like there's no, most matters are gray
01:14:47
◼
►
and this is probably a perfect example of that.
01:14:49
◼
►
And that's why it's hard to talk about
01:14:50
◼
►
because it's very much in the gray area
01:14:54
◼
►
and again, hopefully in the long run
01:14:56
◼
►
it works out for everyone.
01:14:57
◼
►
- I will say, before we move on,
01:14:59
◼
►
I'll say also in the same regard,
01:15:01
◼
►
the other thought that occurred to me
01:15:02
◼
►
is this is why Apple keeps its corporate mouth shut
01:15:07
◼
►
about almost everything.
01:15:08
◼
►
As infuriating as that can be and as opaque as it can make the company be, it's why they just don't
01:15:15
◼
►
talk about stuff, even when they want to, even when they feel like they've been falsely accused
01:15:20
◼
►
or they know they've been falsely accused and that somebody says X and it's not true,
01:15:27
◼
►
and they don't come out and say, "No, that's not true. Here's why." They just take it.
01:15:30
◼
►
They just take it because they kind of can't win. That they can let it stand and keep their mouth
01:15:36
◼
►
shut and let some amount of people think that this false thing is true or they can come out and
01:15:42
◼
►
dispute it even they could even prove it but then they look like a bully that you know literally the
01:15:47
◼
►
biggest and you know the biggest company in in the world uh coming out against you know in this case
01:15:55
◼
►
literally a one-man company so yeah they it's sort of a no-lose situation and a no-win situation and
01:16:01
◼
►
and I can see why the lesser, you know,
01:16:03
◼
►
the better route for them is usually
01:16:07
◼
►
they keep their mouths shut.
01:16:08
◼
►
- Totally, totally.
01:16:09
◼
►
- Do you think that Apple should allow side loading
01:16:11
◼
►
of apps, by the way, on iOS?
01:16:13
◼
►
- No, I do not.
01:16:14
◼
►
If I worked at Apple and I was in charge,
01:16:17
◼
►
or they asked my opinion,
01:16:18
◼
►
should we allow side loading of apps in iOS,
01:16:21
◼
►
I would say no.
01:16:21
◼
►
In an ideal world where there's no bad actors,
01:16:26
◼
►
yes, that would be the right way to go,
01:16:28
◼
►
But you know this, the example I'm going to show,
01:16:32
◼
►
it says Dropbox.
01:16:35
◼
►
There's a whole thing--
01:16:36
◼
►
I haven't really written or talked much about it,
01:16:38
◼
►
but there was a thing that came out over the summer
01:16:40
◼
►
over somebody and found out that the Dropbox app for Mac
01:16:47
◼
►
was like, it would say, hey, we need your admin password just
01:16:51
◼
►
to finish installation.
01:16:52
◼
►
And then they would take those admin privileges
01:16:54
◼
►
and write themselves into the database that controls
01:16:59
◼
►
who has, which apps have accessibility access
01:17:02
◼
►
to your app, to your Mac, which is really sensitive
01:17:05
◼
►
because apps that have that accessibility access,
01:17:07
◼
►
you really have to trust them because they can like
01:17:09
◼
►
do things like see all your keystrokes
01:17:11
◼
►
or see what you're clicking on and stuff like that.
01:17:14
◼
►
And-- - And not just that,
01:17:15
◼
►
but they stored the password.
01:17:17
◼
►
- No, they didn't store the password.
01:17:18
◼
►
No, they didn't store the password.
01:17:21
◼
►
I forget the exact details of it.
01:17:22
◼
►
I'll put it, I swear to God, I'll put it like,
01:17:25
◼
►
people thought they were,
01:17:27
◼
►
people were reasonably thinking they stored the password,
01:17:29
◼
►
but they didn't.
01:17:30
◼
►
What they did was grant themselves access to that database
01:17:33
◼
►
so that they could just keep writing to that database
01:17:37
◼
►
over and over again. - Oh, okay.
01:17:38
◼
►
That makes sense.
01:17:39
◼
►
- So they were more or less,
01:17:41
◼
►
instead they weren't taking your admin password,
01:17:43
◼
►
but they were granting themselves permanent admin privileges
01:17:46
◼
►
to your accessibility preferences,
01:17:47
◼
►
I think is a very fair way of saying it.
01:17:49
◼
►
- And would you say it that way?
01:17:52
◼
►
It just sounds as terrible as it is.
01:17:54
◼
►
- Well, it's a betrayal of trust.
01:17:55
◼
►
It really is.
01:17:56
◼
►
It's shenanigans and it shouldn't be happening.
01:17:58
◼
►
There's no need for it.
01:17:59
◼
►
It's really, as far as what I've heard,
01:18:01
◼
►
is that the whole thing is just to enable
01:18:03
◼
►
some sort of integration with Microsoft Office files,
01:18:06
◼
►
something about the complexity of Microsoft Office's
01:18:09
◼
►
bundled file formats.
01:18:13
◼
►
For people like me who don't even have Office installed,
01:18:18
◼
►
it's ridiculous that they're doing something
01:18:20
◼
►
that I would consider almost like malware-like behavior,
01:18:23
◼
►
however good their intentions are.
01:18:25
◼
►
And they do things, they, Dropbox, you know,
01:18:31
◼
►
does some things that they monitor all access
01:18:34
◼
►
to the file system, and depending on how powerful
01:18:36
◼
►
your Mac is, it can actually significantly slow down
01:18:39
◼
►
operations like unzipping files and stuff like that,
01:18:42
◼
►
because they look, they're snooping at every single action
01:18:46
◼
►
in your file system, whether it's inside the Dropbox folder
01:18:49
◼
►
or not, which is contrary to how it used to work,
01:18:52
◼
►
and contrary to me to how any reasonable person would
01:18:56
◼
►
think Dropbox works.
01:18:57
◼
►
I would think, yes, of course they're
01:18:58
◼
►
looking at everything that happens inside the Dropbox
01:19:02
◼
►
I would assume that they need to so that they
01:19:04
◼
►
can keep everything in sync.
01:19:05
◼
►
It seems ridiculous to me that they're looking at anything
01:19:08
◼
►
that happens outside the Dropbox folder,
01:19:09
◼
►
because I don't want them to.
01:19:11
◼
►
But they are.
01:19:13
◼
►
I did some timing tests on my new 5-- or relatively new 5K
01:19:16
◼
►
iMac that has all these extra cores and stuff like that and an SSD drive and it's hardly
01:19:22
◼
►
noticeable. But on a MacBook Air or something like that, it can significantly slow down
01:19:29
◼
►
And that's my example of an app that's not malware. It's doing what they said, but they're
01:19:33
◼
►
taking advantage of the fact that an app that you download on the Mac from Dropbox.com can
01:19:41
◼
►
and more or less do whatever it can get away with.
01:19:43
◼
►
And however, whatever X, Y, and Z,
01:19:48
◼
►
the good things would be if you could side load apps on iOS.
01:19:52
◼
►
And admittedly, I installed all sorts of apps
01:19:55
◼
►
from outside the App Store on a Mac,
01:19:57
◼
►
and I wouldn't have it any other way on the Mac.
01:19:59
◼
►
It's an advantage that iOS, you know, it's a trade-off.
01:20:03
◼
►
There's trade-offs to the Mac style,
01:20:04
◼
►
and there's trade-offs to the iOS style.
01:20:06
◼
►
But I feel like Apple has an advantage
01:20:07
◼
►
by having one operating system that takes the one side
01:20:10
◼
►
in one operating system that takes the other.
01:20:12
◼
►
What do you think of that?
01:20:14
◼
►
- Yeah, I agree, I agree.
01:20:15
◼
►
I mean, I would, as a user,
01:20:17
◼
►
I would prefer to be able to sign old apps,
01:20:18
◼
►
and were I a developer, I would like to know
01:20:21
◼
►
that there's that option to do that,
01:20:26
◼
►
and that the App Store isn't the only gatekeeper.
01:20:29
◼
►
But if I put on my sort of business hat
01:20:33
◼
►
and think about what concerns Apple,
01:20:36
◼
►
what concerns Apple is they're operating
01:20:38
◼
►
at this unbelievable scale with hundreds of millions
01:20:40
◼
►
of customers and secure, it's a huge target.
01:20:44
◼
►
And yes, you can walk it down to an extent,
01:20:47
◼
►
but then like phishing becomes an option
01:20:49
◼
►
where you get people to install these apps.
01:20:51
◼
►
And people will, people are, I mean,
01:20:53
◼
►
people are not careful about this stuff
01:20:55
◼
►
in a way that probably you and I
01:20:57
◼
►
and most of the listeners of this are.
01:20:59
◼
►
I think, I agree with you, it's even though
01:21:02
◼
►
all the problems of having a single gatekeeper
01:21:04
◼
►
and the fact that you have a situation with this developer
01:21:07
◼
►
where Apple can have, like literally have a kill switch
01:21:10
◼
►
on his account, those are all true
01:21:14
◼
►
and that means it's really on Apple
01:21:17
◼
►
to make sure they get that sort of stuff right.
01:21:20
◼
►
But I agree, from a business perspective,
01:21:24
◼
►
it doesn't make sense to open it up.
01:21:26
◼
►
So yeah, we're on the same page.
01:21:28
◼
►
- Right, I think that the advantage
01:21:29
◼
►
of having both the Mac OS and,
01:21:32
◼
►
I mean we could probably do a whole show about this,
01:21:33
◼
►
but that the advantage of having Mac OS and iOS
01:21:36
◼
►
at the same time, and I'm firmly of the belief
01:21:38
◼
►
that Mac OS is, I know this is maybe even unpopular
01:21:42
◼
►
among the pundit class, I don't think that it is
01:21:44
◼
►
on its deathbed and it's gonna be replaced by iOS
01:21:47
◼
►
any year now, I think Mac OS is as thriving
01:21:50
◼
►
as it's ever been.
01:21:51
◼
►
I think the way Apple sees it, and I think they're happy
01:21:54
◼
►
with it, is that they've got one operating system
01:21:57
◼
►
that starts from the bottom up.
01:21:59
◼
►
In other words, and this is what I'm talking about, iOS,
01:22:02
◼
►
and it's for anybody and everybody,
01:22:05
◼
►
And it's the simpler one, both in terms of the user interface,
01:22:09
◼
►
but also in terms of the technical capabilities.
01:22:12
◼
►
The only output is a Lightning port,
01:22:17
◼
►
and you have to plug in a dongle even to get to a USB.
01:22:19
◼
►
The multitasking is a lot simpler.
01:22:26
◼
►
Any app that you install has to come from the App Store
01:22:28
◼
►
where it's been vetted, and it could be killed at any minute.
01:22:32
◼
►
The multitasking system is such that any app
01:22:34
◼
►
has to be ready to be killed at any moment.
01:22:37
◼
►
And then they've got this other operating system,
01:22:38
◼
►
macOS, that starts from the top down,
01:22:40
◼
►
where it's there for the most expert of expert users.
01:22:45
◼
►
If you really are, you want to have a Unix terminal
01:22:48
◼
►
and command line on your system, you've got it.
01:22:52
◼
►
I think that really is a very strong place to be,
01:22:56
◼
►
and I think it's worked out very, very well.
01:22:59
◼
►
- Yeah, I completely agree.
01:23:00
◼
►
I find it bizarre that people think they're gonna be
01:23:04
◼
►
sync together and it's really viewing the problem
01:23:07
◼
►
from the wrong perspective.
01:23:08
◼
►
'Cause it's sort of like a,
01:23:10
◼
►
you're looking at it from a complexity
01:23:11
◼
►
oh Apple's gonna have to manage multiple operating systems,
01:23:14
◼
►
blah, blah, blah, well that's their job.
01:23:15
◼
►
That's like it's their job to manage that complexity
01:23:18
◼
►
and keep it simple for the user.
01:23:19
◼
►
Like what the proposal that they combine the two
01:23:24
◼
►
quote unquote simplifies it for Apple
01:23:27
◼
►
but it makes it more complicated for the user
01:23:28
◼
►
because you have a overly complicated operating system
01:23:33
◼
►
on one device and a way to lock down oversimplified
01:23:37
◼
►
on another device and that's to completely misunderstand
01:23:41
◼
►
I think the way that Apple thinks about its products.
01:23:44
◼
►
I mean the idea is that you should,
01:23:47
◼
►
what's presented to the user should be simple
01:23:49
◼
►
and what's the like the Einstein quote
01:23:50
◼
►
about simplicity or whatever like--
01:23:52
◼
►
- Everything should be as simple as possible but not more so.
01:23:54
◼
►
- Exactly, exactly and that Apple would prioritize
01:24:00
◼
►
its internal efficiency in maintaining two operating systems
01:24:04
◼
►
and put that complexity onto the user,
01:24:06
◼
►
that seems counter to the entire way Apple thinks
01:24:09
◼
►
about simplicity and managing complexity.
01:24:11
◼
►
- Right, the way I've put it, I've been past,
01:24:14
◼
►
I forget where, I have the Einstein quote memorized.
01:24:18
◼
►
Although, like all great quotes,
01:24:19
◼
►
supposedly that quote is apocryphal
01:24:21
◼
►
and maybe it was never said by Einstein
01:24:23
◼
►
or he said something that was not quite as clever,
01:24:25
◼
►
but people cleaned it up over the years.
01:24:27
◼
►
But anyway, that's the quote that's attributed to it
01:24:29
◼
►
I'm sticking to it.
01:24:31
◼
►
My line is something to the effect of it's the heaviness
01:24:35
◼
►
of Mac OS that allows iOS to be so light.
01:24:38
◼
►
That if they got rid of the Mac, they'd
01:24:39
◼
►
have to make iOS so much more complex to pick up the things
01:24:42
◼
►
that the Mac does that iOS can't, that it would wreck iOS.
01:24:46
◼
►
And all of the things they've done over the years--
01:24:49
◼
►
and I think it's the same thing is true on Windows,
01:24:51
◼
►
too-- all of the ways that over the years Apple and Microsoft
01:24:54
◼
►
have tried to make simple modes for Mac or Windows,
01:24:58
◼
►
They fail. They fall short. There used to be like the simple finder on Mac OS,
01:25:04
◼
►
which was like a mode you could put the Mac in where the finder only showed you. Instead of
01:25:08
◼
►
showing you like the whole file system, it just showed you like a panel full of your apps.
01:25:13
◼
►
There's still like that launch window thing, launcher or whatever. Yeah, it's the same idea.
01:25:19
◼
►
Yeah. And I think that that launcher for Mac OS, what's it called? The thing I never want,
01:25:25
◼
►
launchpad. I never used it. They could just erase it. They could just drop it from Sierra,
01:25:30
◼
►
and I would never even notice because it's irrelevant.
01:25:35
◼
►
I think any attempt like that to make Mac OS too much IOS-y is a failure. I think anything
01:25:41
◼
►
they ever did, although I don't think there's ever been something like that, but anything
01:25:44
◼
►
they did that made IOS too much like Mac OS would wreck the good parts of IOS.
01:25:50
◼
►
You could argue this was, I mean, to go back to the watch, this is the mistake they made
01:25:54
◼
►
in watch version one, was they should have developed it where, in this case, the heaviness
01:26:01
◼
►
was on iOS on the phone, and the watch should have been like the iPod, right?
01:26:06
◼
►
The iPod, it was the perfect example of this.
01:26:09
◼
►
What made it so great was all the complexity of managing your music was all offloaded on
01:26:13
◼
►
the computer, and all the iPod did was play your music.
01:26:17
◼
►
that made it so much more powerful.
01:26:18
◼
►
And I think the mistake that was in version one
01:26:22
◼
►
of the watch was with that launcher
01:26:23
◼
►
and that honeycomb of apps and all that sort of thing.
01:26:25
◼
►
Like it was trying to take, pack an iPhone into it,
01:26:29
◼
►
make it self-sufficient.
01:26:30
◼
►
And in the long run, I still think there's a future
01:26:34
◼
►
where the watch is the center.
01:26:35
◼
►
Like once it gets solar-capped building,
01:26:37
◼
►
it's much more powerful.
01:26:38
◼
►
And there the watch becomes heavy
01:26:40
◼
►
and like your AirPods become light
01:26:42
◼
►
or something along those lines.
01:26:44
◼
►
But we're not there yet.
01:26:45
◼
►
And I think that's, if you were to encapsulate
01:26:50
◼
►
where version one of the watch went wrong,
01:26:52
◼
►
I think it's somewhere in there.
01:26:54
◼
►
- I know that there are people,
01:26:57
◼
►
of course you really screwed me by jumping in
01:26:59
◼
►
before I did the sponsor read, but it's a good topic.
01:27:03
◼
►
I know that there are people listening to us
01:27:04
◼
►
who are frustrated and they're, I feel your frustration.
01:27:08
◼
►
It's people who do want sideloading and they want that
01:27:11
◼
►
because they can tell how for them
01:27:13
◼
►
it would make iOS even better.
01:27:15
◼
►
And I don't deny that at all.
01:27:17
◼
►
For me, iOS would be better if I could side load apps
01:27:21
◼
►
like I can on a map, meaning that I could just get
01:27:24
◼
►
a version of application X straight from the developer,
01:27:28
◼
►
not through the app store, and put it on my phone.
01:27:31
◼
►
And maybe it would mean I'd have a version of
01:27:35
◼
►
Amazon Video for my Apple TV, 'cause I could side load it,
01:27:41
◼
►
and then it would get around.
01:27:43
◼
►
To me, it's one of the worst things about Apple TV
01:27:45
◼
►
is I don't have Amazon.
01:27:46
◼
►
I have an Amazon Prime account.
01:27:47
◼
►
I think Amazon has some of the best original content.
01:27:51
◼
►
I mean, it's maybe not, they're not quite up there
01:27:53
◼
►
with Netflix and HBO, but they're second tier.
01:27:56
◼
►
And it's just such a pain in the ass
01:27:59
◼
►
to have to load it on my phone
01:28:00
◼
►
and airplay it over to the Apple TV
01:28:02
◼
►
rather than just get it on Apple TV.
01:28:04
◼
►
But I totally understand Amazon's point of view
01:28:06
◼
►
that they don't want to give up the 30%
01:28:10
◼
►
or have a version that you can't buy stuff from.
01:28:12
◼
►
I don't know.
01:28:13
◼
►
But sideloading would obviously get around that,
01:28:15
◼
►
and I can see how that would make it better.
01:28:17
◼
►
But the thing I want to say,
01:28:19
◼
►
the thing I want to express
01:28:20
◼
►
to the people who are frustrated by that
01:28:21
◼
►
is it's not about us.
01:28:23
◼
►
The Mac is there for people like us.
01:28:25
◼
►
And we've got a system like that.
01:28:28
◼
►
But you can't deny that the fact
01:28:30
◼
►
that you can screw up a Mac by installing the wrong thing
01:28:34
◼
►
has led to an awful lot of people
01:28:36
◼
►
who've screwed up their Mac by installing the wrong thing.
01:28:39
◼
►
I can't emphasize enough what an amazing weight
01:28:42
◼
►
off the shoulders it is to non-technical users
01:28:45
◼
►
to have a computer like the iPhone or the iPad
01:28:48
◼
►
that they can't screw up.
01:28:51
◼
►
- It is a big benefit to developers too
01:28:53
◼
►
'cause people download a million more apps,
01:28:56
◼
►
way more than a million, exponentially more apps
01:28:59
◼
►
on the phone because they're not scared of apps.
01:29:01
◼
►
I mean, it's hard to remember now,
01:29:04
◼
►
but you go back 10 years and people were scared
01:29:06
◼
►
to install stuff on their computers.
01:29:08
◼
►
- Oh, absolutely.
01:29:09
◼
►
And that would be, and once, and the problem is,
01:29:13
◼
►
you say, oh, only tech leaders do it.
01:29:15
◼
►
Well, no, you get the things like,
01:29:17
◼
►
what's the accessibility thing in China, right?
01:29:20
◼
►
We talked about the home button where people,
01:29:21
◼
►
but you get these, people do weird stuff with their phones
01:29:25
◼
►
because it becomes a thing to do,
01:29:26
◼
►
and there's like tutorials and videos about it.
01:29:29
◼
►
Like people, lots of people that shouldn't
01:29:32
◼
►
would enable sideloading, and then what happens?
01:29:34
◼
►
You get an email, say, oh, or you get,
01:29:36
◼
►
Someone puts up a notification,
01:29:38
◼
►
or they slip something into the app store,
01:29:40
◼
►
they put a legitimate app, they put a notification,
01:29:42
◼
►
say, "Oh, you need to update something."
01:29:43
◼
►
You click a button and it goes to, sorry,
01:29:46
◼
►
illegitimate website and downloads it,
01:29:48
◼
►
sideloads an app because you enabled it
01:29:50
◼
►
for some reason or other,
01:29:51
◼
►
and now you have a malware type app on your computer,
01:29:54
◼
►
or on your phone.
01:29:55
◼
►
And this stuff will happen, it absolutely will happen.
01:29:59
◼
►
And the fact that right now,
01:30:02
◼
►
and you see this on jailbroken phones, right?
01:30:04
◼
►
when you see a report about malware on the phone,
01:30:06
◼
►
it's almost always happening to jailbroken phones.
01:30:09
◼
►
And to, in that case, you kind of brought it on yourself.
01:30:14
◼
►
It's super clear you're doing something you shouldn't do
01:30:16
◼
►
when you're jailbreaking it.
01:30:17
◼
►
If it was Apple-enabled and Apple-endorsed,
01:30:21
◼
►
even if not by default, just the number of people
01:30:24
◼
►
that would do that and expose themselves would be huge,
01:30:27
◼
►
and it would be a support nightmare for Apple,
01:30:30
◼
►
and it would be bad for developers,
01:30:32
◼
►
'cause people would start getting scared of apps again,
01:30:34
◼
►
and that would be a terrible place to be.
01:30:36
◼
►
- What was the name of Amazon?
01:30:38
◼
►
There's a company that Amazon owns
01:30:40
◼
►
that ranks websites by traffic.
01:30:43
◼
►
Is it called Alexa?
01:30:46
◼
►
Even though now that's the name of their Siri type thing?
01:30:49
◼
►
- What was the name of that?
01:30:51
◼
►
And it used to get its measurements
01:30:52
◼
►
through the Amazon toolbar or something like that.
01:30:55
◼
►
What was the name?
01:30:57
◼
►
You remember, and it doesn't seem
01:30:58
◼
►
like anybody really talks about it.
01:30:58
◼
►
- Oh yeah, maybe it was Alexa.
01:31:00
◼
►
- I think it was called Alexa,
01:31:01
◼
►
but it was, and they do a rankings
01:31:03
◼
►
of like the top thousand websites and stuff like that.
01:31:05
◼
►
And one time--
01:31:06
◼
►
- Yeah, Alexa internet.
01:31:07
◼
►
- Yeah. - Right.
01:31:08
◼
►
I totally forgot about that.
01:31:09
◼
►
Yeah, that's funny.
01:31:11
◼
►
- One time, a long time ago, I was at a conference
01:31:15
◼
►
and I got into a poker game late at night
01:31:20
◼
►
with a bunch of people and one of the guys worked at Alexa
01:31:24
◼
►
or something like that.
01:31:25
◼
►
And this was a while ago, maybe even like 10 years ago.
01:31:27
◼
►
And it was when Alexa mattered more.
01:31:29
◼
►
And Daring Fireball was at the time
01:31:31
◼
►
rated terribly in Alexa.
01:31:32
◼
►
I mean, their estimates of my web traffic
01:31:35
◼
►
were way less than I knew it to be
01:31:36
◼
►
just because I could look at my logs.
01:31:38
◼
►
And I asked them about it.
01:31:39
◼
►
And it didn't really matter too much to me
01:31:41
◼
►
because I wasn't really interested
01:31:43
◼
►
in the type of advertising that was like,
01:31:45
◼
►
at the time, if you wanted typical web advertising,
01:31:50
◼
►
your Alexa ranking mattered
01:31:52
◼
►
in terms of the rates you'd get.
01:31:54
◼
►
And I didn't wanna pursue that.
01:31:57
◼
►
And again, we could do a whole show
01:31:58
◼
►
about my thoughts on web advertising.
01:32:00
◼
►
But at least in terms of like, wow,
01:32:02
◼
►
if I need to, at least I could, it was like,
01:32:04
◼
►
wow, that door isn't even open to me
01:32:06
◼
►
'cause I'm way under-counted.
01:32:07
◼
►
And he said, oh yeah, of course you're way under-counted,
01:32:10
◼
►
of course, because all the measurements for Alexa
01:32:12
◼
►
come from people who've installed the Amazon toolbar
01:32:15
◼
►
and almost everybody who installs the Amazon toolbar
01:32:17
◼
►
did it by accident or doesn't know how it got there
01:32:19
◼
►
and people who read Darren Fireball
01:32:21
◼
►
are smart enough not to install it
01:32:23
◼
►
and most of them are on Macs
01:32:24
◼
►
where it doesn't even run anyway.
01:32:25
◼
►
It was like, oh, no matter of fact about it.
01:32:31
◼
►
But that's the exact same--
01:32:32
◼
►
I think about those web toolbars a lot.
01:32:34
◼
►
People used to get those.
01:32:35
◼
►
And he even said, we know that most people get it
01:32:38
◼
►
and don't even know how they got it.
01:32:41
◼
►
That's never going to happen on iOS.
01:32:44
◼
►
Anyway, I'm going to take a break and thank our next sponsor.
01:32:47
◼
►
That's all right.
01:32:48
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It is our friends at Harry's.
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Harry's makes world-class shaving products.
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It's just a great company.
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Big razor companies, the big guys, Gillette and those jerks,
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They have the annoying habit, when they put out new models,
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they raise their already high prices.
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So if you want to get their best product,
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◼
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you have to pay more than you were paying
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for their previous product.
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Unlike those guys, Harry's doesn't believe in upcharging.
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That's why when they make their razors even better,
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they keep their prices exactly the same.
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Harry's five blade razors now include, this is brand new,
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they have a softer flex hinge for a more comfortable glide.
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They have a new trimmer blade,
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like a little mini blade for hard to reach places,
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which I think means for most men at least,
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that little area right underneath your nose,
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which is kind of hard to get with a full width blade,
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at least it is for me.
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So they've got that now.
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I have one of the new handles.
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My old handle, I've had my original handle from Harry's
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since they first started sponsoring this show,
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and if you're a long time listener to the show,
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It's years ago.
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I don't know how many years ago, but years ago,
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they first started sponsoring, they sent me a pack.
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I looked at it the other day.
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It's in mint condition.
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It is literally, it looks like I could just say
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that it just got here like last week.
01:34:11
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That's how built to last their stuff is.
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But I have to say the textured handle is so much better
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because it really does, it's less slippery
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and it really feels like it makes me think,
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even though I've been a big fan of their stuff for years,
01:34:23
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it makes me wonder why the original one
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didn't have this texture.
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Well, they make it better.
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they've made it better, same price as it used to be.
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Still just two bucks per blade compared to $4 or more
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that you'll pay at the drugstore for top blades
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from other companies.
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They own their own factory in Germany
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where they make the blades.
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They own it right from raw steel to the blade
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that ships to your house.
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So they can produce high quality razors themselves
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and sell them online for half the price
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'cause they don't have any middlemen.
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They make blades, they package them up
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in really cool packaging, excellent packaging,
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and ship them right to you.
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So there's no middleman.
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you say how can they charge half what other companies do because other companies make them and sell them to a distributor and then the
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distributor sells them to
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You know Walgreens or CVS or Walmart wherever the hell you're buying them from and every step along the way it gets marked up
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01:36:06
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What else we got on the agenda for today Oh
01:36:10
◼
►
Hilariously, I cannot find the the browser tab. That's it. So I just had to go back. I've got it
01:36:18
◼
►
I messaged chat and it opened it.
01:36:20
◼
►
So I now have it open twice on my computer.
01:36:21
◼
►
And I wonder why I end up with underdabs.
01:36:23
◼
►
- What about Twitter getting acquired?
01:36:26
◼
►
What are your thoughts on that?
01:36:27
◼
►
It hasn't happened yet.
01:36:28
◼
►
- Oh, poor Twitter.
01:36:31
◼
►
- It started sounding, there's so much smoke.
01:36:34
◼
►
It's one of those where there's smoke,
01:36:35
◼
►
there's fire type things.
01:36:36
◼
►
- Yeah, but I think that's Twitter generated smoke
01:36:38
◼
►
because they wanted.
01:36:39
◼
►
- I do think Twitter wants to be sold.
01:36:44
◼
►
- Yeah, well the problem, Twitter's stuck.
01:36:46
◼
►
And the reason they're stuck is that the company is overvalued for what it is right now, and it has been for a long time.
01:36:53
◼
►
The problem is that the number one thing I suspect that is propping up the stock price is the presumption that someone's going to buy it.
01:37:00
◼
►
But it's keeping the price high enough that no one wants to buy it.
01:37:04
◼
►
So the price needs to go down for it to be a viable acquisition,
01:37:11
◼
►
but it won't go down because people are counting on it not going down or on
01:37:15
◼
►
getting a good price for the stock so it's really kind of stuck in this
01:37:18
◼
►
sort of catch-22 situation. There was a, you know, everyone always thinks about
01:37:23
◼
►
the strategic acquirers like you know Google makes a lot of sense I've written
01:37:26
◼
►
about this I've written about this a fair bit I wrote a post a while ago we
01:37:28
◼
►
can is in the day update but walking through like the Twitter self scenarios
01:37:32
◼
►
and who should buy them the problems with it. Google is obviously the one that's
01:37:36
◼
►
always made the most sense in part because they suck at social,
01:37:40
◼
►
that sort of having a feed.
01:37:43
◼
►
And Twitter needs to go to somebody who can,
01:37:46
◼
►
if you just go to some random company,
01:37:50
◼
►
you have all Twitter's problems are going with you.
01:37:52
◼
►
Whereas Google already has advertising scale, for example,
01:37:54
◼
►
and they already have automated selling,
01:37:56
◼
►
which some of that Twitter really fell on its face on.
01:37:58
◼
►
Like they're still selling,
01:37:58
◼
►
the vast majority of their money is still made by like selling ads to big
01:38:02
◼
►
companies or big ad agencies as opposed to like the mom and pop signing up to Facebook
01:38:07
◼
►
or to Google, which scales so much better and makes a lot of money for them.
01:38:12
◼
►
Twitter never really got that working.
01:38:13
◼
►
So going somewhere like Google that already has that infrastructure in place makes sense.
01:38:17
◼
►
The problem is Twitter signed this deal with Google a year and a half ago to one, give
01:38:23
◼
►
Google all their data and two, to incorporate with DoubleClick so they'd be part of the
01:38:30
◼
►
system, which means Google basically got, outside of owning it and what they could do
01:38:37
◼
►
with it, they got everything they need from Twitter.
01:38:39
◼
►
They got the data and they got the platform to sell ads against.
01:38:42
◼
►
Why buy it when they got everything they already need?
01:38:45
◼
►
Why buy the cow when you're getting the milk for free?
01:38:48
◼
►
Right, exactly.
01:38:50
◼
►
There was a good post by, I think it's John Bronte.
01:38:54
◼
►
Bronte Capital is the site.
01:38:56
◼
►
He's this guy in Australia that's famous for doing these deep dive investigations of
01:38:59
◼
►
and he can like drive their stock down like no day tomorrow.
01:39:03
◼
►
But he did a, he wrote a, I thought was a good post
01:39:07
◼
►
and I haven't written about his post specifically
01:39:11
◼
►
but basically his point is, and I think it's a fair point,
01:39:14
◼
►
we always, in tech we always think about
01:39:16
◼
►
the strategic value of Twitter
01:39:17
◼
►
and that's why Google should buy it for example
01:39:19
◼
►
or like Salesforce has been a big rumor
01:39:21
◼
►
and they're gonna get data and all that sort of thing.
01:39:24
◼
►
But his point was that like Twitter
01:39:26
◼
►
makes a fair bit of revenue.
01:39:28
◼
►
The problem is their costs are just enormous.
01:39:32
◼
►
And particularly once you include stock-based compensation,
01:39:34
◼
►
they're losing like $500 million a year,
01:39:36
◼
►
which is just a massive amount of money.
01:39:38
◼
►
It's a pretty stable amount of money.
01:39:39
◼
►
And they've been increasing over the last several years
01:39:42
◼
►
where the revenue's gone up,
01:39:43
◼
►
they've increased their employee base hugely,
01:39:46
◼
►
increased their costs hugely.
01:39:47
◼
►
And his point kinda is this business is what it is.
01:39:50
◼
►
If you basically go in there and clean house
01:39:54
◼
►
and just keep the business running as it is,
01:39:57
◼
►
it could actually be a profitable company
01:39:59
◼
►
that throws off a fair amount of cash.
01:40:00
◼
►
So he thinks that it needs,
01:40:02
◼
►
the best solution for them is like a leveraged buyout,
01:40:05
◼
►
and someone goes in just cleans house,
01:40:07
◼
►
gets rid of a bunch of staff, like cleans up the company,
01:40:09
◼
►
makes it profitable, and then sells it.
01:40:12
◼
►
And then it'd be much more palatable
01:40:14
◼
►
for a sales force to buy or for Google to buy.
01:40:16
◼
►
The problem, of course, is Twitter
01:40:18
◼
►
very well may die along the way.
01:40:19
◼
►
- It's easy for me to say,
01:40:21
◼
►
and I really hate to be callous about it, I really do,
01:40:24
◼
►
'cause a job is an important thing.
01:40:26
◼
►
But the headcount at Twitter makes no sense to me at all.
01:40:33
◼
►
I don't understand.
01:40:34
◼
►
And I'm a long--
01:40:36
◼
►
I mean, very early user number.
01:40:39
◼
►
I think I signed up in late 2006.
01:40:43
◼
►
Long time user.
01:40:44
◼
►
I have a lot of followers.
01:40:46
◼
►
I think I get Twitter.
01:40:50
◼
►
I know that different people use Twitter in different ways.
01:40:53
◼
►
But I love Twitter.
01:40:57
◼
►
I really do.
01:40:58
◼
►
I use it every day.
01:40:59
◼
►
It's really turned into the primary way
01:41:02
◼
►
that I interact with readers during Fireball,
01:41:06
◼
►
far more so than email.
01:41:07
◼
►
And it's funny.
01:41:10
◼
►
I think one thing I never get anymore, ever--
01:41:13
◼
►
I can't remember the last time.
01:41:14
◼
►
Honestly, it might even be years since somebody
01:41:16
◼
►
has complained about the fact that during Fireball doesn't
01:41:19
◼
►
have comments on articles.
01:41:20
◼
►
And part of it is, I think, that it's become clear to more and more people that I was right
01:41:26
◼
►
all along that comments on articles are not a good idea. But I think one of the bigger reasons is that
01:41:33
◼
►
more and more people realize that Twitter conversations with @Gruber are just as good,
01:41:40
◼
►
or at least better, I think, actually. That there's an interaction with me and with other
01:41:48
◼
►
readers who follow me. It's a fantastic thing. I don't understand why there's so many people
01:41:55
◼
►
who work at Twitter. It already does what it does. I don't understand what is going
01:42:00
◼
►
Yeah, the numbers are... Oh, sorry. I think we only talked about this last time. Dustin
01:42:05
◼
►
Curtis posted the revenue per employee for 2015.
01:42:10
◼
►
Yeah, and Yahoo was at the bottom, $419,000 per employee. Twitter was $462,000 per employee.
01:42:16
◼
►
So Yahoo! level, Microsoft 789,000, Google 1.1 million per employee, Facebook 1.4 million,
01:42:23
◼
►
and Apple 2 million per employee.
01:42:25
◼
►
And then you get to profit.
01:42:27
◼
►
And at least Yahoo! was making a profit for employees back then.
01:42:30
◼
►
Twitter was losing $130,000 per employee.
01:42:33
◼
►
I mean Facebook's making 290,000, Apple's making 460,000.
01:42:41
◼
►
There's this weird attitude about Twitter and you see this all the time like, "Oh, Twitter
01:42:45
◼
►
Twitter has so much potential.
01:42:47
◼
►
Like oh, Twitter is a 10 year old company, right?
01:42:52
◼
►
Like at some point you need to,
01:42:54
◼
►
it's almost like treating them disrespectfully,
01:42:56
◼
►
like they're like this little,
01:42:57
◼
►
like this incapable sort of being,
01:43:00
◼
►
like we should expect more from a 10 year old company.
01:43:04
◼
►
And Twitter is been, I've written tons of it,
01:43:08
◼
►
we've talked about it,
01:43:09
◼
►
like Twitter's been grossly mismanaged for many years.
01:43:12
◼
►
Yeah, I agree with with with the Wall Street guy. Like I think some needs to go in clean house. Yes
01:43:18
◼
►
I get that there's a talent you you're gonna lose a lot of talent with a lot of value employees
01:43:23
◼
►
But at at some point the service does what it does people like you and I love it
01:43:29
◼
►
Like it needs a total reset
01:43:31
◼
►
it just needs to a total reset and I hope it survives the process but
01:43:35
◼
►
continuing on this path is is I don't know doesn't what is going on with the headcount of Instagram now that they're a fully absorbed
01:43:43
◼
►
Part of Facebook, but before Facebook bought them
01:43:47
◼
►
Instagram 30 people right it was like 12 people until it got to the point where they needed and you know
01:43:53
◼
►
I think they might have had more ops people, you know than then product people just because it was so popular
01:43:59
◼
►
But it was you could reasonably put them on a bus and drive them all to the airport together for a kid
01:44:05
◼
►
off-site. I mean, the whole company would fit in a bus. And was doing something of similar
01:44:13
◼
►
scale and nature and complexity as Twitter. I'm not saying Twitter should be 30 people
01:44:18
◼
►
at this point, but it should be a lot closer to 30 than where they are now. And I think
01:44:23
◼
►
part of it is, and Instagram is to me the comparison, not Facebook. I'm not saying
01:44:31
◼
►
that Twitter should say that they're done and say, "Okay, we've done it," you know.
01:44:35
◼
►
But they've been closer to done than not done for a while.
01:44:41
◼
►
Like the whole point of Twitter, much like Instagram, is that it's conceptually very
01:44:46
◼
►
That's the appeal and is actually part of the point of it, that it's you pick who you
01:44:51
◼
►
want to follow, you'll see what the people who you've chosen to follow post, and then
01:44:55
◼
►
you can post and the people who've chosen to follow you will see what you've posted.
01:45:00
◼
►
And that basic, that simplicity, it sounds so simple,
01:45:04
◼
►
you think, well, that doesn't even count.
01:45:06
◼
►
But it's like, no, nobody had ever actually thought
01:45:07
◼
►
of that before.
01:45:08
◼
►
There's a genius in that.
01:45:10
◼
►
But they really, it's not the sort of thing
01:45:13
◼
►
where they need massive ongoing development.
01:45:18
◼
►
- Yeah, it's almost like a, it's like Twitter is a perfectly,
01:45:23
◼
►
like the strategy for Twitter has always been to,
01:45:26
◼
►
they have a cost problem.
01:45:29
◼
►
but they've always, their goal has always been
01:45:31
◼
►
to grow out of that cost problem, if that makes sense.
01:45:34
◼
►
Like they're gonna get big enough and get scale
01:45:36
◼
►
where the cost makes sense.
01:45:37
◼
►
And that is a, it's a reasonable way of thinking,
01:45:41
◼
►
that's the way companies operate.
01:45:42
◼
►
But the problem is it's just not that big of a business.
01:45:46
◼
►
Like Twitter, I mean Twitter makes a few billion dollars
01:45:48
◼
►
a year in revenue.
01:45:49
◼
►
Like that should be enough to have a viable business
01:45:51
◼
►
given what it is.
01:45:52
◼
►
And I think part of this gets into all the problems
01:45:54
◼
►
that Twitter had in management and all the problems
01:45:56
◼
►
had in their board and the fighting between Evan Jack is they ... And the class is they
01:46:03
◼
►
probably took on too much venture money in the long run.
01:46:06
◼
►
They didn't build a business more quickly enough.
01:46:08
◼
►
And they got to a state where they had this sort of bloated apparatus that the easiest
01:46:14
◼
►
and most obvious way was to, "Well, if we can grow revenue big enough, we'll outgrow
01:46:20
◼
►
It needs a reset.
01:46:21
◼
►
The service is what it is.
01:46:23
◼
►
Obviously the abuse problems are real.
01:46:25
◼
►
It needs to be addressed.
01:46:26
◼
►
But I think even there,
01:46:28
◼
►
you have all these bad incentives going on.
01:46:30
◼
►
Like killing spam hurts the active user account, right?
01:46:35
◼
►
Banning people hurts the active user.
01:46:36
◼
►
Like, and you have,
01:46:38
◼
►
there's all these bad incentives in place for Twitter
01:46:42
◼
►
as the public company, as they are now.
01:46:44
◼
►
And yeah, I've really come around, I think,
01:46:47
◼
►
to this sort of like, I get the talent issue.
01:46:49
◼
►
I get that people are gonna flee Twitter
01:46:51
◼
►
if a Wall Street guy comes in, in Queens house.
01:46:53
◼
►
But I think we're to the point where,
01:46:57
◼
►
like, yes, the surgery might kill the patient,
01:47:01
◼
►
but without the surgery, the patient is not going anywhere.
01:47:03
◼
►
I mean, you can't lose $500 million a year forever.
01:47:10
◼
►
- They had a big drop off.
01:47:13
◼
►
It was just recent where the stock got run up
01:47:15
◼
►
on the rumors that they might get acquired,
01:47:17
◼
►
and then like a week--
01:47:19
◼
►
- Yeah, this--
01:47:20
◼
►
- Was it Salesforce?
01:47:22
◼
►
- Yeah, Salesforce was the lead one,
01:47:23
◼
►
but it really sounds like,
01:47:25
◼
►
particularly where the weeks came out,
01:47:27
◼
►
they were kind of known Twitter channels.
01:47:29
◼
►
So it sounds like Salesforce expressed interest
01:47:32
◼
►
and then Twitter tried to drum up other interests
01:47:35
◼
►
and then everyone's like, nope, not interested,
01:47:37
◼
►
and then the stock crashed back down.
01:47:39
◼
►
Anyway, I love Twitter.
01:47:40
◼
►
I hope it works out, but I do think that,
01:47:43
◼
►
I guess I've come around on Google.
01:47:45
◼
►
I mean, my antipathy towards Google is just a general,
01:47:49
◼
►
In general, I just don't like Google.
01:47:53
◼
►
And I don't trust them with data.
01:47:55
◼
►
And I don't want my Twitter account tied to a Google ID.
01:47:58
◼
►
And I don't know what Google would
01:48:00
◼
►
want to do in that regard if they were the ones that buy them.
01:48:03
◼
►
But on the other hand, if the right people at Google
01:48:05
◼
►
were in charge of it and they just saw it as, wow,
01:48:08
◼
►
we've got this incredible resource of instant news
01:48:11
◼
►
of what everybody around the world is talking about,
01:48:14
◼
►
I could see them handling it well.
01:48:16
◼
►
And Google has shown a history of like
01:48:20
◼
►
when they first monetized search results
01:48:23
◼
►
of not messing with what made it good in the first place.
01:48:29
◼
►
What is interesting, and here's another example
01:48:32
◼
►
where Google kind of screwed themselves,
01:48:37
◼
►
but is a company like Bloomberg where,
01:48:42
◼
►
so of course Bloomberg has a deal with Twitter
01:48:44
◼
►
where Twitter gives them all their data
01:48:46
◼
►
for a price that's way too low for what it's worth.
01:48:49
◼
►
But if there was a cleaning of house
01:48:53
◼
►
and Twitter survived it,
01:48:54
◼
►
there's really valuable stuff in Twitter.
01:48:58
◼
►
I use Twitter a fair bit for,
01:49:01
◼
►
like if you want to find interesting,
01:49:03
◼
►
like say I'm writing about a topic
01:49:04
◼
►
and I really want to understand more about it,
01:49:06
◼
►
I want to get different points of view.
01:49:08
◼
►
Like yes, I use Nuzzle personally and that services stuff,
01:49:11
◼
►
but if it's a more obscure sort of thing,
01:49:13
◼
►
like Twitter search is actually one of the best ways
01:49:16
◼
►
to uncover interesting off the beat sort of posts
01:49:20
◼
►
or articles about any particular topic.
01:49:23
◼
►
Like because just the nature of the data is different
01:49:27
◼
►
than something like Google.
01:49:29
◼
►
And there's a lot of value there.
01:49:31
◼
►
It's not clear it's value that's best monetized
01:49:35
◼
►
by advertising.
01:49:36
◼
►
And this can go back to the very beginning,
01:49:39
◼
►
back when the decisions were made about Twitter
01:49:41
◼
►
and how it should monetize.
01:49:42
◼
►
If Twitter came along later, it would be interesting if,
01:49:46
◼
►
and it didn't have obviously the executive upheaval,
01:49:49
◼
►
but in a world where it's clear that Google and Facebook
01:49:52
◼
►
are gonna really dominate advertising online,
01:49:56
◼
►
and had there been more creativity with Twitter,
01:50:00
◼
►
I mean, we've said this a million times,
01:50:03
◼
►
but like they own,
01:50:05
◼
►
like imagine if someone owned the protocol behind email,
01:50:08
◼
►
Like how valuable could that be?
01:50:10
◼
►
And that's what Twitter had, maybe still has,
01:50:15
◼
►
but had the potential to own basically
01:50:17
◼
►
a messaging protocol for the internet.
01:50:20
◼
►
And in part because of monetization concerns,
01:50:23
◼
►
in part because just general ineptitude.
01:50:26
◼
►
Like I still can't believe that Twitter banned links
01:50:28
◼
►
and direct messages for two years.
01:50:30
◼
►
But they could have owned a messaging protocol
01:50:33
◼
►
for the internet.
01:50:34
◼
►
But they didn't align,
01:50:36
◼
►
they didn't choose a business model that enabled that.
01:50:38
◼
►
they chose advertising, they closed down
01:50:40
◼
►
all the third party stuff, and it's a shame.
01:50:43
◼
►
It's one of the biggest, like what could have been,
01:50:46
◼
►
I still think Twitter could have been a massive company,
01:50:50
◼
►
but there would have had to have been
01:50:51
◼
►
very different choices made five, six years ago.
01:50:54
◼
►
- Let me take one last break here
01:50:58
◼
►
and thank our third and final sponsor.
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It's a brand new sponsor.
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One of my favorite things with Away
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is that's just what they do.
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They've got, they're all the same quality
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and they've got three sizes.
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The carry-on, guess what, fits in carry-on overhead bin.
01:51:36
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the medium, and the large.
01:51:39
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If you ever go--
01:51:40
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I actually am in the market for a carry-on bag.
01:51:43
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I've been using the same one for like 15 years,
01:51:45
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and it literally is like ripped apart.
01:51:47
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And stuff that I put in the front pocket
01:51:49
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actually usually falls into the main compartment.
01:51:52
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You should probably get a new one.
01:51:53
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Well, it doesn't fall out of the suitcase.
01:51:55
◼
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It falls from the little front zipper pack
01:51:57
◼
►
thing into the main compartment.
01:52:00
◼
►
But you go to these other brands, and they've got like--
01:52:04
◼
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They call it like the executive and the junior executive
01:52:07
◼
►
and the overnight executive
01:52:09
◼
►
and the cheating on his wife executive.
01:52:10
◼
►
And it's all like 21 inches.
01:52:12
◼
►
- I was drinking coffee and I just spit it out.
01:52:14
◼
►
- It's like the difference between them is like,
01:52:16
◼
►
is it 22 inches or 21 and a half inches
01:52:19
◼
►
or 21 and three quarters inches high or 14 or 15 inches?
01:52:23
◼
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Who needs it?
01:52:24
◼
►
They've got three sizes.
01:52:25
◼
►
The overhead one fits in at least here in the US
01:52:29
◼
►
fits in all of the overhead bins
01:52:31
◼
►
of all the airlines I've ever flown on,
01:52:34
◼
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which is all I need.
01:52:35
◼
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The suitcases are made with premium German polycarbonate,
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◼
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unrivaled in strength and impact resistance,
01:52:42
◼
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and very lightweight.
01:52:43
◼
►
It actually looks to me like they're three or four pounds
01:52:45
◼
►
lighter than a lot of other premium brands.
01:52:48
◼
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The interior features a patent pending compression system
01:52:50
◼
►
useful for overpackers, that's me,
01:52:52
◼
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'cause I like to just carry a carry-on
01:52:55
◼
►
instead of checking a bag.
01:52:56
◼
►
Four 360 degree spinner wheels, guarantee a smooth ride.
01:53:01
◼
►
I will never buy a suitcase again
01:53:03
◼
►
that doesn't have four wheels, never.
01:53:05
◼
►
'Cause sometimes it really is so much more convenient
01:53:07
◼
►
to just push 'em along rather than pull 'em on two wheels.
01:53:10
◼
►
They have a TSA approved combination lock
01:53:12
◼
►
built into the top of the bag.
01:53:14
◼
►
Removable, washable laundry bag,
01:53:17
◼
►
keeps your dirty clothes separate from the clean.
01:53:18
◼
►
They just give it to you, it's right there in the bag.
01:53:21
◼
►
And now here's the part where,
01:53:23
◼
►
now why are they sponsoring the talk show?
01:53:26
◼
►
Here's a, this is just a brilliant feature, I love this.
01:53:29
◼
►
It comes with a built-in 10,000 milliamp battery charger.
01:53:34
◼
►
And you can take it out, so you could charge it,
01:53:38
◼
►
you could take it out of the suitcase
01:53:39
◼
►
and charge it somewhere else.
01:53:40
◼
►
You don't have to have the suitcase at your desk
01:53:43
◼
►
to charge it or wherever you're gonna charge it.
01:53:44
◼
►
But then you charge this thing up,
01:53:45
◼
►
you put it in a suitcase,
01:53:46
◼
►
and then you've got USB ports right on top of the suitcase.
01:53:50
◼
►
So while you're sitting there
01:53:51
◼
►
at like the waiting for your flight to board,
01:53:54
◼
►
you got a massive portable battery
01:53:57
◼
►
to charge anything that needs to be charged right there
01:54:01
◼
►
on top of the suitcase.
01:54:02
◼
►
What a great idea.
01:54:05
◼
►
Lifetime warranty, if anything--
01:54:07
◼
►
and it's got a couple of ports, so you could have one for you,
01:54:09
◼
►
one for your significant other, or your kid,
01:54:11
◼
►
or something like that, or charge your iPhone and your iPad
01:54:14
◼
►
at the same time.
01:54:15
◼
►
What a great idea.
01:54:16
◼
►
I never go to the airport without a portable battery
01:54:19
◼
►
Wouldn't it be great not to have it in my pocket,
01:54:21
◼
►
have it right built into the suitcase?
01:54:23
◼
►
It's a suitcase for today's age.
01:54:27
◼
►
Lifetime warranty, if anything breaks, they'll fix it
01:54:29
◼
►
or replace it for life.
01:54:30
◼
►
100 day free trial, live with it, vibe with it,
01:54:33
◼
►
travel with it, Instagram it,
01:54:35
◼
►
and if at any point you decide it's not for you,
01:54:37
◼
►
you can return it for a full refund,
01:54:38
◼
►
no questions asked, 100 days.
01:54:41
◼
►
So you get free shipping on any way order
01:54:43
◼
►
within the continental United States.
01:54:44
◼
►
Sorry for everybody outside
01:54:46
◼
►
of the continental United States.
01:54:48
◼
►
You can still buy one.
01:54:49
◼
►
And like I said, the carry-on size is compliant
01:54:53
◼
►
with all the major airlines.
01:54:56
◼
►
Really, this sounds like a great product.
01:54:58
◼
►
I don't have one right now.
01:54:59
◼
►
I'm going to buy one because I need a new suitcase
01:55:01
◼
►
and the prices are significantly less
01:55:06
◼
►
than the ones I have been looking at from other brands.
01:55:09
◼
►
Really, really great stuff.
01:55:12
◼
►
Where do you go to find out more?
01:55:14
◼
►
You go to awaytravel.com/talkshow.
01:55:22
◼
►
That's the URL, awaytravel.com/talkshow.
01:55:26
◼
►
And they'll know you came from the show.
01:55:29
◼
►
Go check them out if you're in need for a suitcase.
01:55:31
◼
►
Here's the prices.
01:55:32
◼
►
The carry-on's $225.
01:55:34
◼
►
The medium is $275.
01:55:35
◼
►
And the large is $295.
01:55:37
◼
►
So all three of them are under $300.
01:55:39
◼
►
This carry-on I was looking at the other day
01:55:41
◼
►
from another company was like $700.
01:55:43
◼
►
So this is a lot less.
01:55:45
◼
►
Good colors, anything you can say about it.
01:55:48
◼
►
So anyway, go check them out, awaytravel.com/talkshow.
01:55:52
◼
►
Just to a quick follow up, it is Bronte Capital, but the author is John Hempton.
01:55:57
◼
►
How do you spell Bronte? How do you spell it?
01:56:00
◼
►
B-R-O-N-T-E capital. It's actually a blogspot site, .blogspot.com.
01:56:05
◼
►
B-R-O-N-T-E?
01:56:07
◼
►
Yeah. B-R-O-N-T-E capital. C-A-P-I-T-A-L .blogspot.com.
01:56:13
◼
►
Alright, and what's the author's name?
01:56:15
◼
►
John Hempton.
01:56:16
◼
►
Hempton. Alright, there we go.
01:56:18
◼
►
What else is on our agenda?
01:56:21
◼
►
We're never gonna get to all of this, are we?
01:56:23
◼
►
- I know, but it was just too bad,
01:56:24
◼
►
'cause they're both interesting.
01:56:25
◼
►
So there's Siri, Walt Mossberg wrote a column,
01:56:28
◼
►
and then augmented review, which actually,
01:56:31
◼
►
I would like to talk about that.
01:56:33
◼
►
- We can mow through all this, we can do it.
01:56:35
◼
►
Let's talk about the Google Pixel phones.
01:56:38
◼
►
I think we can do this one pretty quickly.
01:56:40
◼
►
I ordered one, I don't know if you did.
01:56:43
◼
►
- Yeah, I did.
01:56:44
◼
►
- I haven't bought an Android phone, I think, in two years.
01:56:46
◼
►
I think it was two years ago when I bought this Moto X,
01:56:48
◼
►
and I tried to stay on top of it.
01:56:51
◼
►
I regretted it the moment I got it.
01:56:52
◼
►
This Moto X is a piece of crap,
01:56:54
◼
►
and I should have gotten a Nexus,
01:56:57
◼
►
and I regretted it, and I swore--
01:56:59
◼
►
- Yeah, I got the 6P last year.
01:57:01
◼
►
- I swore that I would never buy another Android phone
01:57:03
◼
►
that wasn't a Nexus, and now they've just abandoned
01:57:06
◼
►
the Nexus name and taken even more control over the design
01:57:10
◼
►
and called them pixels.
01:57:11
◼
►
To me, it's the only way to try an Android phone.
01:57:13
◼
►
I mean, look, you buy a Samsung,
01:57:15
◼
►
and the thing's gonna set you on fire.
01:57:18
◼
►
I have no interest in a Samsung, not because I don't think they're--
01:57:21
◼
►
I don't want to kick dirt on them while they're on fire.
01:57:26
◼
►
But fire-- dirt puts out fires.
01:57:28
◼
►
I know for a fact from two minutes of dicking around with one
01:57:32
◼
►
in a cell phone store that I have no interest in buying one
01:57:34
◼
►
because of the shitty software that they put on top of Android.
01:57:37
◼
►
I want to use the Android that comes from Google.
01:57:39
◼
►
You don't get it from Samsung.
01:57:42
◼
►
You can't get it from them.
01:57:43
◼
►
So I have no interest in it.
01:57:44
◼
►
I have no idea why anybody who cares about this stuff
01:57:46
◼
►
whatever, buy a Samsung phone.
01:57:48
◼
►
So anyway, I bought a Pixel.
01:57:49
◼
►
I bought the five-inch model in black,
01:57:52
◼
►
and I was so torn over whether to get the 32-gigabyte one
01:57:57
◼
►
or the 128. - Oh, same here.
01:57:59
◼
►
- I honestly, it cost me three days,
01:58:02
◼
►
and I got further behind in the shipping queue
01:58:05
◼
►
because I couldn't decide which one to buy
01:58:07
◼
►
because I thought, with the iPhone,
01:58:10
◼
►
I've always bought the largest capacity one there is.
01:58:13
◼
►
Even this year, I got the 256,
01:58:15
◼
►
even though my old phone was only at like,
01:58:18
◼
►
I don't know, like 100 or so or 90 some.
01:58:20
◼
►
I had plenty of space.
01:58:22
◼
►
I needed more than 64, but I was well under 128.
01:58:25
◼
►
And I probably would be for another year.
01:58:27
◼
►
But I just don't want to even worry about it.
01:58:28
◼
►
If I want to shoot 4K video, I'll shoot 4K video
01:58:30
◼
►
and I don't have to clear it off.
01:58:32
◼
►
With the Pixel, I really am 99% sure
01:58:37
◼
►
it's not gonna become my daily phone.
01:58:39
◼
►
- But just in case it does.
01:58:41
◼
►
- Well, or just in case, I thought that occurs to me
01:58:43
◼
►
"What if I'm testing it and something really fascinating
01:58:47
◼
►
"or newsworthy happens and I want to start shooting
01:58:49
◼
►
"4K video, you know, I don't want to have it fill up."
01:58:54
◼
►
- So I got one too, I got the same model.
01:58:58
◼
►
Did you end up getting 128?
01:58:59
◼
►
- No, I ended up, and money just squirts through my hands,
01:59:04
◼
►
my fingers like water, but I ended up saving $100
01:59:08
◼
►
this one time and I bought the 32 gigabyte version.
01:59:10
◼
►
- I did get the 128.
01:59:12
◼
►
It there to me. This product is is absolutely fascinating and it's
01:59:17
◼
►
Like at the 128 I even went to the next day I even went to change my order and it was too late
01:59:25
◼
►
It's like in the processing queue, so I would have had to cancel it and go to the end of the queue
01:59:29
◼
►
Sorry that all right. I'll stick with it
01:59:31
◼
►
All right. Why are you fascinated by it?
01:59:33
◼
►
So the most interesting thing is I mean go back I have like I mentioned I have the I believe it's the 6p though
01:59:41
◼
►
the Huawei one from last year. Very nice phone. Uh, I still find Android,
01:59:46
◼
►
Android frustrating. Like for me, the like,
01:59:51
◼
►
scrolling is like my, the white whale from me and Android. Like I just,
01:59:55
◼
►
it just, it's like nails on the, on the chalkboard. I came,
01:59:59
◼
►
drives me up the wall. Uh,
02:00:02
◼
►
but what's interesting is my six P is not getting the Google assistant.
02:00:06
◼
►
So you go back to the way they opened up that presentation.
02:00:10
◼
►
they didn't start out with the hardware.
02:00:11
◼
►
They started out by talking about like the history of tech.
02:00:14
◼
►
He's like, there was the PC era,
02:00:15
◼
►
and then there was the internet era,
02:00:17
◼
►
and then there was the mobile era,
02:00:18
◼
►
and now we're in the AI era,
02:00:20
◼
►
which I don't think, I don't quite agree with that.
02:00:23
◼
►
I talked about that on Exponent this last week,
02:00:26
◼
►
but the point is it's all about the Google Assistant.
02:00:30
◼
►
And then from there, they went to the Pixel phone.
02:00:33
◼
►
So that was the framing for interesting the phone.
02:00:35
◼
►
They weren't selling a phone,
02:00:37
◼
►
they were selling access to the Google Assistant.
02:00:40
◼
►
What's so interesting is Google Assistant
02:00:43
◼
►
is not a part of Android.
02:00:45
◼
►
It's not gonna be on the Nexus phones.
02:00:48
◼
►
It's not on phones from third parties that,
02:00:50
◼
►
oh, they can use their own system they want
02:00:51
◼
►
and Samsung bought Viv, bought another assistant.
02:00:55
◼
►
And I've heard rumors that it might be available.
02:00:59
◼
►
I'm not sure if, I suspect not,
02:01:01
◼
►
and if it is, I will have thoughts about that.
02:01:04
◼
►
Because what's interesting is if that framing
02:01:07
◼
►
is right that they're moving to a new world of this assistant world, then that sounds
02:01:13
◼
►
like really good news for Google, right?
02:01:16
◼
►
Because this assistant stuff is right in their wheelhouse.
02:01:19
◼
►
So we can get into the quality of the system.
02:01:21
◼
►
I think I'm not sure LO is a good representation of how good it may or may not be, but at least
02:01:26
◼
►
like sort of theoretically, it's easy to imagine that Google's assistant is going
02:01:31
◼
►
to be more capable than the competition because that's what they do.
02:01:36
◼
►
- Right, I believe that.
02:01:38
◼
►
- The problem for Google is,
02:01:40
◼
►
this world is a great fit for them technologically,
02:01:45
◼
►
and it's a horrible fit for them
02:01:47
◼
►
from a business model perspective.
02:01:49
◼
►
Because the way Google makes money
02:01:51
◼
►
is they basically make their advertisers
02:01:55
◼
►
compete against each other.
02:01:57
◼
►
And they compete to get in front of customers,
02:01:59
◼
►
and then the customer chooses the winner.
02:02:01
◼
►
They click on an ad, they select an ad and click on it,
02:02:04
◼
►
And that's the one that pays money.
02:02:07
◼
►
- It's a great insight.
02:02:09
◼
►
So let me see if you agree with this.
02:02:11
◼
►
The main product that Google, since its inception,
02:02:15
◼
►
has served is a list of search results.
02:02:19
◼
►
And this goes across all their products.
02:02:23
◼
►
Whatever they make from Gmail,
02:02:24
◼
►
I don't think it's a drop in a bucket,
02:02:26
◼
►
I think, compared to search results.
02:02:27
◼
►
And the product is, you type in a little thing
02:02:30
◼
►
in this little box and hit return,
02:02:32
◼
►
And Google, about 1/10 to 2/10 of a second later,
02:02:36
◼
►
gives you a list of results.
02:02:38
◼
►
And originally, it was all just search results.
02:02:41
◼
►
And their competitors were doing things
02:02:43
◼
►
like putting Punch the Monkey ads atop the page.
02:02:47
◼
►
All of this obnoxious stuff, they
02:02:48
◼
►
were making no money on it.
02:02:50
◼
►
And Google said, we're never going to show these banner ads.
02:02:52
◼
►
And they never did.
02:02:53
◼
►
They never went back on that.
02:02:55
◼
►
And what they did is they found a way to say,
02:02:57
◼
►
what we're going to do is--
02:03:00
◼
►
I would say it's almost like an early form
02:03:02
◼
►
of native advertising.
02:03:03
◼
►
And I know you've talked about it.
02:03:06
◼
►
We're just going to use one of the slots in the list.
02:03:08
◼
►
We're just going to make slot one a paid result.
02:03:12
◼
►
And we're going to try to make sure
02:03:13
◼
►
that even though it's a paid result,
02:03:15
◼
►
that it's still somewhat relevant to the query
02:03:18
◼
►
because that'll work for everybody.
02:03:20
◼
►
It'll work for you, the person looking for a thing.
02:03:22
◼
►
It'll work for the advertiser because they're only
02:03:26
◼
►
going to have the ad in front of people who are actually
02:03:28
◼
►
sort of looking for this.
02:03:32
◼
►
- Sorry, I just ruined your train of thought.
02:03:36
◼
►
- And it'll work for us
02:03:37
◼
►
because this might actually be sustainable.
02:03:40
◼
►
It's win-win-win.
02:03:41
◼
►
- Notes in the browser just crashed on me.
02:03:43
◼
►
I sent you a screenshot
02:03:45
◼
►
and you totally went off the rails.
02:03:47
◼
►
I apologize for that.
02:03:48
◼
►
- It says, "Notes has stopped responding.
02:03:50
◼
►
"An error has prevented this application
02:03:53
◼
►
"from working properly."
02:03:54
◼
►
That's because it's not an application, it's a webpage.
02:03:56
◼
►
Anyway, it's a list.
02:03:58
◼
►
But there is no--
02:04:01
◼
►
and in the same way, and you've often
02:04:02
◼
►
been very complimentary about the Daring Fireball Sponsorship
02:04:06
◼
►
model, that it is an early form of native advertising,
02:04:09
◼
►
where I serve up a bunch of short articles every week.
02:04:14
◼
►
And I sell one of them to a sponsor, who I hope
02:04:18
◼
►
is of interest to my audience.
02:04:22
◼
►
And it just slips right in to the RSS feed,
02:04:24
◼
►
just like all the other ones.
02:04:25
◼
►
and it's clearly labeled as sponsored,
02:04:29
◼
►
but it's not like some extraneous thing
02:04:32
◼
►
like an image on top of the thing.
02:04:37
◼
►
- There is no, there's no room for that
02:04:39
◼
►
in an interaction with a voice assistant,
02:04:40
◼
►
you know what I mean?
02:04:41
◼
►
Like if I say to my voice assistant,
02:04:44
◼
►
"Hey, Dingus, book me on a flight
02:04:46
◼
►
"to San Francisco on October 26th."
02:04:49
◼
►
The dingus can't come back to me and say,
02:04:53
◼
►
"Hey, would you like to..."
02:04:56
◼
►
- Yeah, no one wants to make selections.
02:04:59
◼
►
And this is exactly it.
02:05:02
◼
►
An assistant works if it gives you answers,
02:05:05
◼
►
whereas Google's business model
02:05:06
◼
►
is predicated on giving you options.
02:05:09
◼
►
And so in a world where you give answers, not options,
02:05:13
◼
►
their business model falls apart,
02:05:14
◼
►
and people are like, "Oh, well,
02:05:16
◼
►
"there could be sponsored results."
02:05:17
◼
►
And one, most of the time that sounds terrible,
02:05:21
◼
►
but two, yes, there are some scenarios
02:05:23
◼
►
where Google could maybe charge an affiliate fee
02:05:25
◼
►
or something, right?
02:05:26
◼
►
Like, you use OpenTable to book--
02:05:28
◼
►
they say, book me a table at X restaurant,
02:05:30
◼
►
and Google uses OpenTable, and OpenTable
02:05:32
◼
►
pays Google an affiliate fee.
02:05:33
◼
►
That-- listening to it, it sounds ridiculous.
02:05:39
◼
►
One, there's very few areas that will work.
02:05:42
◼
►
But two, affiliate fees are not very high
02:05:46
◼
►
relative to what companies pay for Google Ads.
02:05:49
◼
►
Because to your flight example, what's
02:05:52
◼
►
The goal of Kayak and Booking.com or Expedia or all these sort of things, they're not
02:05:59
◼
►
only looking to complete a purchase, which they would pay an affiliate fee for if that
02:06:04
◼
►
was an option.
02:06:05
◼
►
They're also looking to acquire a customer for the long run.
02:06:09
◼
►
And so they're calculating the value of that ad on a lifetime value calculation, which
02:06:14
◼
►
means their willingness to pay for an ad is much higher than it would be for a pure affiliate
02:06:21
◼
►
The net of it is that in an assistant world,
02:06:24
◼
►
Google's general business model doesn't work.
02:06:26
◼
►
There might be limited ways they could make money,
02:06:28
◼
►
but one, it's not very many,
02:06:29
◼
►
and two, the amount they can charge for them
02:06:31
◼
►
is just not that much.
02:06:34
◼
►
Imagine if you had a real personal assistant,
02:06:36
◼
►
if you hired a person and you said,
02:06:38
◼
►
you said, "Hey, Sam, get me a reservation
02:06:43
◼
►
"at the House of Prime Rib Wednesday at 10."
02:06:46
◼
►
And then Sam said to you,
02:06:47
◼
►
"Why don't I book you at Morton's instead?
02:06:49
◼
►
and by the way, I'm being paid by Morton Steakhouse
02:06:53
◼
►
to suggest that you eat there.
02:06:55
◼
►
All right, you'd say, you'd fire 'em.
02:06:57
◼
►
You'd be like, are you kidding me?
02:06:58
◼
►
What are you doing?
02:06:59
◼
►
Go do what I told you to do.
02:07:01
◼
►
- Right, exactly.
02:07:02
◼
►
- It just doesn't work.
02:07:03
◼
►
- No, it doesn't.
02:07:04
◼
►
And so Google, so this is a big problem for Google.
02:07:06
◼
►
And it's already a problem on mobile.
02:07:08
◼
►
And you see like in mobile, they've stuffed the page
02:07:11
◼
►
with now three ads.
02:07:12
◼
►
And they did, it's funny, it's the last,
02:07:14
◼
►
a year ago, Google's quarter three results,
02:07:17
◼
►
like, oh, we had this huge explosion in mobile revenue.
02:07:20
◼
►
Things are great, da da da da da.
02:07:22
◼
►
And what happened was they put a third ad in the page
02:07:25
◼
►
so that when you, for many, like for high monetizing
02:07:29
◼
►
results, you only saw ads on the first screen.
02:07:32
◼
►
You had to scroll down to get the results.
02:07:34
◼
►
Like basically a page inclusion model,
02:07:35
◼
►
if you want to be sort of mean about it.
02:07:39
◼
►
And now, so it's funny because the last Google earnings call
02:07:43
◼
►
the CFO was trying to like talk down the next quarter.
02:07:46
◼
►
Like what are we gonna see?
02:07:47
◼
►
It's a year since we made changes to the mobile experience.
02:07:49
◼
►
It was like, oh, what's gonna happen
02:07:51
◼
►
once you don't have the nice year over year comparison
02:07:53
◼
►
of like three ads versus two.
02:07:55
◼
►
Anyhow, the general point is that their business model
02:07:58
◼
►
doesn't translate as well as their technology does.
02:08:01
◼
►
And so what's so interesting about the Pixel
02:08:05
◼
►
and why I'm so fascinated by the fact
02:08:07
◼
►
that the assistant is only on the Pixel
02:08:11
◼
►
is what is a way to make money?
02:08:14
◼
►
Well, how does Apple make money?
02:08:16
◼
►
Apple makes money because we want to use iOS.
02:08:20
◼
►
We think iOS is the superior operating system.
02:08:23
◼
►
Well, how do you get iOS?
02:08:25
◼
►
There's only one way to get it,
02:08:26
◼
►
and that's to buy a physical phone from Apple.
02:08:29
◼
►
You can't install it on another phone.
02:08:30
◼
►
It's like the Mac model brought to the phone, right?
02:08:33
◼
►
Apple has a monopoly on iOS for all intents and purposes.
02:08:36
◼
►
It kind of sounds like, and again,
02:08:39
◼
►
we'll see how it turns out in the long run,
02:08:41
◼
►
but it makes conceptual and strategic sense
02:08:44
◼
►
that Google's doing that with Google Assistant.
02:08:47
◼
►
If we move to a world where assistants matter,
02:08:49
◼
►
and if the Google Assistant is far and away
02:08:52
◼
►
the best assistant, which I think is, it's reasonable,
02:08:55
◼
►
there's a scenario where you could see that being the case,
02:08:57
◼
►
just given the sort of company that Google is
02:08:59
◼
►
and what they're good at.
02:09:00
◼
►
If you want Google Assistant, how are you gonna get it?
02:09:03
◼
►
You're gonna buy a Google phone that costs $650,
02:09:07
◼
►
and over time, if they get scale,
02:09:10
◼
►
has a big profit margin.
02:09:11
◼
►
- Or cost something. - It really costs
02:09:12
◼
►
some amount of money where the amount of profit
02:09:14
◼
►
that they can turn on the phone is worth it
02:09:16
◼
►
for the expected lifetime that you'll be using the phone,
02:09:18
◼
►
that they can just give you their best assistant software,
02:09:23
◼
►
quote unquote, for free.
02:09:25
◼
►
- Totally, and I bet if assistant does end up
02:09:27
◼
►
on other phones, Google very well may be charging for it.
02:09:33
◼
►
- And it's so fascinating because you rarely see companies
02:09:38
◼
►
completely changing their business model,
02:09:41
◼
►
But it's interesting because theoretically it makes so much sense.
02:09:44
◼
►
Like, I can totally believe, I'm a general proponent of voice computing.
02:09:49
◼
►
I think it's going to be a bigger deal than people think.
02:09:52
◼
►
I'm not saying it's going to like,
02:09:53
◼
►
touch screens aren't going away, phones aren't going away.
02:09:56
◼
►
Just like computers didn't go away.
02:09:58
◼
►
But the fact that you can talk anywhere, I mean,
02:10:02
◼
►
putting aside in the crowd on a subway,
02:10:04
◼
►
I think we're going to have like our assistant voices.
02:10:06
◼
►
Kind of like how, I mean, ten years ago no one thought we'd be looking at
02:10:08
◼
►
screens all the time, but we do.
02:10:09
◼
►
Like I can see in 10 years,
02:10:11
◼
►
people are kind of muttering all their time.
02:10:13
◼
►
- If I could ever get, I don't know,
02:10:16
◼
►
I'm just ripping somebody off,
02:10:17
◼
►
but if I could ever get like a Gruber's law,
02:10:20
◼
►
it would be that anything in computing that's slow
02:10:24
◼
►
will eventually be fast.
02:10:26
◼
►
- Yes, and if it's Moore's law,
02:10:28
◼
►
then that's-- - Yeah,
02:10:29
◼
►
yeah, and that's who I'm ripping off.
02:10:30
◼
►
I never heard of it.
02:10:31
◼
►
Never heard of it, but I guess I'm ripping it off.
02:10:34
◼
►
And you know, what were touch screens like 20 years ago,
02:10:39
◼
►
25 years ago, they were terribly slow, right?
02:10:41
◼
►
There was, you know, eventually though,
02:10:44
◼
►
they got super fast, and voice computing
02:10:46
◼
►
is so much faster than it used to be,
02:10:48
◼
►
but it still is slow.
02:10:49
◼
►
I don't care who you think the best is,
02:10:51
◼
►
whether you think it's Alexa with an Echo,
02:10:55
◼
►
or Google, or Siri, or whatever,
02:10:57
◼
►
I've never seen a single one of them
02:10:59
◼
►
answer a question as quickly as a human being can, right?
02:11:02
◼
►
Like, if I'd ask you, and you've been outside today,
02:11:07
◼
►
what's the weather like outside,
02:11:08
◼
►
you can answer me way faster
02:11:10
◼
►
than any of those things can right now.
02:11:11
◼
►
There's a certain latency to it,
02:11:13
◼
►
and there's a certain even slowness
02:11:15
◼
►
to the way they read back the answer
02:11:18
◼
►
that's so much faster if you're actually talking to a human.
02:11:23
◼
►
But eventually voice interaction with computers
02:11:25
◼
►
will be as fast as we can proceed.
02:11:27
◼
►
It'll get so fast that they could go faster
02:11:31
◼
►
than we could even listen to them.
02:11:33
◼
►
And at that point, it'll be so much more useful.
02:11:36
◼
►
- Right, and the other thing is,
02:11:37
◼
►
I'm a big believer that the more pervasive computing is,
02:11:42
◼
►
the more it will be used.
02:11:43
◼
►
Like there's lots of stuff that is better
02:11:46
◼
►
and more quote unquote efficient to do on a computer
02:11:48
◼
►
that we do on our phones now.
02:11:50
◼
►
And I'm a very heavy phone user.
02:11:51
◼
►
I actually, I'm mainly only right on my computer.
02:11:54
◼
►
Like the vast majority of my reading and research
02:11:56
◼
►
and everything is on the phone.
02:11:58
◼
►
And convenience always ends up trumping
02:12:02
◼
►
sort of like efficiency.
02:12:04
◼
►
Like if something's available, we use it.
02:12:06
◼
►
And the idea that, like, I think the AirPods are such a,
02:12:11
◼
►
are such a fascinating product
02:12:12
◼
►
'cause they point to this future, right?
02:12:14
◼
►
This idea that you can set the AirPods up
02:12:15
◼
►
and now they're paired to your watch.
02:12:17
◼
►
And you can, it's not here yet,
02:12:18
◼
►
but you can see a future where you just always
02:12:21
◼
►
have the AirPods and watch with you,
02:12:23
◼
►
whereas you might, getting your phone in your pocket
02:12:25
◼
►
might be a pain, or maybe you don't have your phone with you
02:12:27
◼
►
or all those sorts of things.
02:12:29
◼
►
Again, we're not there yet, we're not close to there yet,
02:12:32
◼
►
but over time, convenience ends up trumping everything,
02:12:37
◼
►
particularly to your point, once Gruber's Law kicks in.
02:12:42
◼
►
- It's interesting, I hadn't really thought about that.
02:12:44
◼
►
I've definitely been thinking about the Pixel
02:12:45
◼
►
as being almost, like I've written about it,
02:12:47
◼
►
that it's so utterly iPhone-like that it's not even,
02:12:52
◼
►
to me, it almost goes beyond shameful
02:12:55
◼
►
because they're not even hiding it in terms of,
02:12:59
◼
►
it even has the exact same prices.
02:13:02
◼
►
It's literally the same price for the same capacity.
02:13:04
◼
►
Obviously, it's not a clone.
02:13:10
◼
►
It's not meant to be indistinguishable,
02:13:12
◼
►
but especially from the front face, it's so iPhone-like.
02:13:17
◼
►
I mean, the fact that the chin is completely symmetric
02:13:21
◼
►
with the forehead, even though they don't even have
02:13:24
◼
►
a button down there, aesthetically,
02:13:27
◼
►
it is so iPhone-like, it is ridiculous.
02:13:31
◼
►
But I don't, to me it's not shameful in a way that like Samsung's copying was or
02:13:38
◼
►
HTC's copying has been.
02:13:42
◼
►
I would be embarrassed to put my name on it as a design, but I kind of understand it and
02:13:46
◼
►
it's, there's almost like a tacit, like with Samsung there was always a sort of,
02:13:53
◼
►
We never heard of them," sort of aspect to the accusations that they copied.
02:13:56
◼
►
Whereas with Google, like in their initial PR for the Pixel, they mentioned the iPhone
02:14:02
◼
►
and said, "Yes, we tried to make it different in certain ways."
02:14:06
◼
►
But there's sort of an implicit, "Yes, these phones are based on the world where
02:14:12
◼
►
the best phones are iPhones, and the phones that the people that we're trying to sell
02:14:16
◼
►
to are currently using iPhones."
02:14:19
◼
►
And it's, in two, what we've been talking about, it extends all the way to the model.
02:14:26
◼
►
In this case, Google, and so it is an integrated model, and integration in computing is not,
02:14:32
◼
►
I think it's been constrained, people only think about the OS and the software.
02:14:37
◼
►
You can integrate anywhere in the value chain.
02:14:40
◼
►
In this case, Google's using, like the Android is firewalled off from the Google Pics team,
02:14:45
◼
►
and we'll see how much that actually is the case in practice, but that actually makes
02:14:49
◼
►
sense, and it makes sense because what does Android provide for Google?
02:14:53
◼
►
provides the ecosystem, provides all the apps,
02:14:55
◼
►
and apps are table stakes, right?
02:14:57
◼
►
And so keeping a standard Android that makes that,
02:15:00
◼
►
you know, in general, the compatibility problem
02:15:03
◼
►
has gotten better for Android development in general,
02:15:06
◼
►
and keeping that going is good.
02:15:08
◼
►
You don't wanna differentiate it too much.
02:15:11
◼
►
But that's okay, because that's not what is selling
02:15:13
◼
►
the Pixel phone.
02:15:15
◼
►
What's selling the Pixel phone is the assistant.
02:15:17
◼
►
And so the integration that matters here
02:15:19
◼
►
is the integration of the assistant with the hardware,
02:15:22
◼
►
where the assistant is the differentiating factor,
02:15:24
◼
►
which is why you buy,
02:15:25
◼
►
and the hardware is how they make the money.
02:15:27
◼
►
It, well again, the problem is,
02:15:29
◼
►
it makes tons of sense in theory.
02:15:30
◼
►
The issue is that Google,
02:15:34
◼
►
changing business models is really hard.
02:15:35
◼
►
Google has shown no aptitude in being, in selling stuff.
02:15:40
◼
►
And it's, there's a lot of work that has to be done.
02:15:44
◼
►
You have to set up distribution,
02:15:45
◼
►
you have to do a lot of marketing.
02:15:46
◼
►
You have to spend, like Samsung spends like $400 million
02:15:49
◼
►
in marketing a year or something like that.
02:15:51
◼
►
They have connections with every single phone seller
02:15:54
◼
►
in the world and carrier.
02:15:56
◼
►
That's all stuff that Google's going to have to build
02:15:58
◼
►
and it's not stuff that Google has traditionally
02:16:01
◼
►
been very good at, to say the least.
02:16:03
◼
►
I mean, Google is like the whole,
02:16:05
◼
►
we operate at scale and we don't deign
02:16:07
◼
►
to get into the mucky details.
02:16:08
◼
►
They've had the fortune of being able
02:16:10
◼
►
to do that their whole existence
02:16:11
◼
►
and whether they can pull that off is,
02:16:14
◼
►
I think, something that's very fair to be skeptical about.
02:16:17
◼
►
- I don't know what the upside is for Pixel sales.
02:16:21
◼
►
What's the best case scenario?
02:16:24
◼
►
I don't think it's very big,
02:16:26
◼
►
at least not in the next year or two.
02:16:29
◼
►
I mean, and again, who knows what could happen
02:16:32
◼
►
three, four, five years, but a good start can get you there.
02:16:36
◼
►
And there's sort of a, like look at Tesla,
02:16:39
◼
►
where I just linked to a thing today,
02:16:41
◼
►
which really shocked me, honestly,
02:16:43
◼
►
that Tesla has sold more in that $100,000 range
02:16:47
◼
►
class sedans, more of them than BMW
02:16:50
◼
►
Mercedes combined last year. They sold more Teslas than the Mercedes S-Class and BMW 7
02:16:57
◼
►
Series combined. That's unbelievable to me. I can't believe that. And part of that is
02:17:02
◼
►
just being in Philadelphia, where Tesla does not have anywhere near as big a presence as
02:17:06
◼
►
it surely does in the Valley and maybe other places. I see way more Mercedes S-Classes
02:17:12
◼
►
and BMW 7 Series on the road than I do Tesla. But I have no reason to doubt it, but it's
02:17:16
◼
►
eye-opening, it's a way to gain a foothold. And $700 cell phones are clearly the cell
02:17:23
◼
►
phone equivalent of the S-class level of car, where around the world, globally, most people
02:17:31
◼
►
can't afford it. And that's where Android has their foothold, is Android completely
02:17:36
◼
►
dominates the "I only have $100 or $200 to spend on my phone."
02:17:40
◼
►
- Right, well, the, sorry.
02:17:45
◼
►
Two things I would say is, oh sorry.
02:17:47
◼
►
- You go first, you go first.
02:17:49
◼
►
- Well, two things I would say is one,
02:17:51
◼
►
I don't think you'll be able to judge the Pixel,
02:17:54
◼
►
and this is gonna be a challenge for Google internally
02:17:56
◼
►
to remember this, buy its one year or two year sales.
02:17:58
◼
►
Because you just, it's impossible to come out of the gate
02:18:01
◼
►
and sell like tens of millions of units.
02:18:03
◼
►
And there's gonna be plenty of opportunities
02:18:05
◼
►
for Apple people to mock the sales numbers,
02:18:07
◼
►
say, oh Apple sells that much in a week or whatever.
02:18:09
◼
►
and that's gonna be totally valid.
02:18:11
◼
►
But if Google is serious about this being a genuine business
02:18:15
◼
►
where they actually do make money from hardware,
02:18:18
◼
►
which again, all indications are,
02:18:19
◼
►
why would you make it exclusive if that's not the goal?
02:18:25
◼
►
It takes years to build that sort of business.
02:18:27
◼
►
And so this, they would need to start now in 2016
02:18:31
◼
►
to have a viable business in 2019 or 2020.
02:18:34
◼
►
And if you think about it,
02:18:35
◼
►
that's probably when these assistants
02:18:37
◼
►
are gonna be getting really, really good.
02:18:39
◼
►
And so you, again, if they have the fortitude
02:18:42
◼
►
to pull this off, you could see a world where in 2020,
02:18:46
◼
►
Google has this unbelievable assistant,
02:18:48
◼
►
it's only available on their phones,
02:18:50
◼
►
they have volume up, they have all the connectors
02:18:52
◼
►
with carriers up, remember how long it took Apple
02:18:54
◼
►
to get in every country in the world, right?
02:18:56
◼
►
How long it took them to get in every carrier.
02:18:57
◼
►
Especially if you want to control the user experience
02:19:00
◼
►
like Google clearly wants to do.
02:19:02
◼
►
That takes years to build up, and by starting now,
02:19:07
◼
►
Ideally, once Google Assistant is good enough
02:19:09
◼
►
that it's actually a reason to buy,
02:19:12
◼
►
then they will be placed to do it.
02:19:14
◼
►
So in that respect, I think the timing does make sense.
02:19:17
◼
►
Again, I just don't know if Google has it in them
02:19:21
◼
►
to go through that multi-year slog
02:19:24
◼
►
of building this sort of business,
02:19:26
◼
►
but there is certainly a theoretical reason
02:19:28
◼
►
why it makes a ton of sense.
02:19:30
◼
►
- I think I really, I have a hunch that maybe
02:19:33
◼
►
the pixels might be a miniature hit in the valley.
02:19:38
◼
►
I almost feel like they're almost built for,
02:19:42
◼
►
at least this year, to be like a popular phone
02:19:45
◼
►
in Silicon Valley in San Francisco.
02:19:48
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Because for whatever reason,
02:19:51
◼
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I think Google has an outsized presence
02:19:56
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►
on iPhone users in that area.
02:19:59
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I think there's an awful lot of people who have iPhones
02:20:01
◼
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but use a lot of Google apps and maybe use the Gmail app
02:20:06
◼
►
instead of Apple Mail.
02:20:08
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►
And I don't know how many of them use Chrome on iOS
02:20:12
◼
►
instead of Safari, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me
02:20:14
◼
►
because it doesn't even get to use its own rendering engine.
02:20:18
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And I've seen articles along that line.
02:20:19
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And I see it at press events when I go there.
02:20:22
◼
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And I see a lot of the people I know and friends I have
02:20:25
◼
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who are less Apple-centric and more cover the whole industry.
02:20:30
◼
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Almost the most common scenario I see with them
02:20:33
◼
►
with a cell phone is that they use an iPhone.
02:20:35
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And when I get a look at what they use,
02:20:36
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or if I see their, you know, dock or, you know,
02:20:39
◼
►
their home screen, their first home screen,
02:20:40
◼
►
an awful lot of them use Google apps on their iPhone.
02:20:45
◼
►
And I have a half written piece,
02:20:48
◼
►
I haven't finished it yet, but Lauren Goode at The Verge
02:20:52
◼
►
had an article this week about how iMessage is the glue
02:20:55
◼
►
that keeps her on, keeps her using an iPhone
02:20:57
◼
►
instead of switching to an Android phone.
02:20:59
◼
►
And the underlying premise of it is that there's nothing else on iOS that keeps people tied to it, which I completely disagree with.
02:21:08
◼
►
But it also reminds me of, let me see if I have it on my clipboard, an article from last year by a guy, nope, not on my clipboard,
02:21:17
◼
►
Buzzfeed, who wrote an article, I think his name is Charlie Warzel, that was more or less
02:21:29
◼
►
like hey everybody I know hides all that built in Apple apps in folders and stuff like that
02:21:34
◼
►
and replaces them with Google apps.
02:21:39
◼
►
What are the names that you use for the folders where you hide all of your Apple apps and
02:21:44
◼
►
It's a bunch of screenshots of stuff like crapple and junk
02:21:50
◼
►
and stuff I don't use.
02:21:52
◼
►
I use the Apple emoji.
02:21:54
◼
►
That's pretty good.
02:21:55
◼
►
I think they're sort of in a bubble where I think most people use the default.
02:22:01
◼
►
And nothing better exemplifies it than the popularity of Apple Maps.
02:22:06
◼
►
By far and away, the most popular map app on iOS is Apple Maps.
02:22:10
◼
►
And when I was on Josh Topolsky's show, I don't know,
02:22:14
◼
►
not real recently, but sometime within the last year.
02:22:16
◼
►
And he couldn't believe that I used Apple Maps.
02:22:18
◼
►
And for me, where I live--
02:22:20
◼
►
and I know you and I have spoken about this,
02:22:22
◼
►
that you go around the world and it's very different.
02:22:24
◼
►
But here, where I live, it's really great.
02:22:26
◼
►
And the only thing I used to use Google Maps for was transit.
02:22:29
◼
►
And now Apple Maps has transit in the cities I go to.
02:22:32
◼
►
So it's good for me.
02:22:34
◼
►
But I can see why normal people--
02:22:36
◼
►
I mean, for me, it's an informed decision, where I compare it
02:22:38
◼
►
to Google Maps, and I just don't like
02:22:40
◼
►
the interface of Google Maps.
02:22:43
◼
►
But for most people, the defaults are good enough.
02:22:47
◼
►
But in the Valley, where people really
02:22:49
◼
►
want to use these Google Apps, but they
02:22:51
◼
►
want a really good phone, I could
02:22:52
◼
►
see the Pixel really taking off.
02:22:54
◼
►
And I can kind of see how that might then, therefore,
02:22:57
◼
►
lead to good coverage.
02:23:00
◼
►
If it becomes a thing where half the people you know
02:23:03
◼
►
who are your peers in San Francisco and the Valley
02:23:07
◼
►
are using-- maybe half's too high.
02:23:08
◼
►
But if a big chunk of them are using Pixel phones,
02:23:11
◼
►
it inflates the coverage as to how popular it's gonna be,
02:23:15
◼
►
or how popular it is.
02:23:16
◼
►
- Maybe, I mean, and certainly Google couldn't ask for,
02:23:20
◼
►
I mean, the real company that's threatened by this
02:23:21
◼
►
is Samsung, 'cause I mean, there's been two real premium
02:23:25
◼
►
phone sellers, that's Apple and Samsung,
02:23:27
◼
►
and Huawei's done very well in China,
02:23:28
◼
►
but in general, those are the two in most of the world,
02:23:30
◼
►
and Pixel's gonna peel off, I think,
02:23:34
◼
►
Samsung users before they do iPhone users.
02:23:38
◼
►
Your value exception might be true.
02:23:39
◼
►
I definitely think the iMessage point is a huge one.
02:23:43
◼
►
I've written this previously.
02:23:44
◼
►
One thing that people always complain about is,
02:23:46
◼
►
they say they look at like the valuation of like Tencent
02:23:48
◼
►
who has WeChat or they look at Wine wants IPO or whatever.
02:23:52
◼
►
And they say, oh, Apple, one of the reasons
02:23:54
◼
►
that Apple stock is too low is because it doesn't properly
02:23:56
◼
►
account for the value of iMessage.
02:23:58
◼
►
And I actually think, I think that's silly.
02:24:01
◼
►
And the reason is the iMessage value is accounted for
02:24:06
◼
►
in the value of the iPhone.
02:24:08
◼
►
because I absolutely, this is a classic example
02:24:12
◼
►
of Apple's sort of vertical strategy
02:24:14
◼
►
where iMessage helps sell more iPhones
02:24:18
◼
►
and to take iMessage cross-platform
02:24:21
◼
►
to make it like these other messaging services,
02:24:23
◼
►
yes, that might make iMessage quote unquote more valuable
02:24:26
◼
►
'cause Apple could theoretically monetize it,
02:24:28
◼
►
but that would be offset by the reduction
02:24:32
◼
►
in the value of the iPhone
02:24:34
◼
►
because it's no longer exclusive to the iPhone.
02:24:37
◼
►
And no, when I broke my arm last year,
02:24:39
◼
►
and I wanted to switch to Android
02:24:43
◼
►
because the voice dictation is, it's unbelievably better.
02:24:47
◼
►
It's like a completely different universe.
02:24:48
◼
►
I actually, I have Google in my dock on my iPhone
02:24:52
◼
►
because the voice search just works incredibly well.
02:24:57
◼
►
Even though I find the actual Google app
02:24:59
◼
►
super annoying to use, I'd rather it be in Safari,
02:25:01
◼
►
but if I'm on the go, it just works really, really well.
02:25:05
◼
►
The problem is, one, the whole scrolling thing drives me
02:25:07
◼
►
wall. But two, iMessage is a problem. For folks like you and in general people that I'm connected
02:25:13
◼
►
with in tech, if I don't talk to them via DM, it's almost all via iMessage. And it's very valuable,
02:25:20
◼
►
and it's a real advantage for Apple. Yeah. And I think it's no coincidence that the only real
02:25:24
◼
►
software for Android that Google has really talked about this year is Allo and Duo, the replacements
02:25:29
◼
►
for i, their answers to iMessage and FaceTime. But I think that they're stuck in that regard,
02:25:36
◼
►
though because I don't think I don't think it's gonna solve the problem of
02:25:41
◼
►
getting people to switch like if anybody's already got everybody they
02:25:45
◼
►
know on their family on FaceTime they're not gonna get anybody to install duo
02:25:49
◼
►
yep no the the number one feature of any messaging app has nothing with the
02:25:54
◼
►
interface has nothing to do with stickers all the stuff as much as I may
02:25:56
◼
►
love them the number one feature of any messaging app is do your friends and
02:26:00
◼
►
use it. Like nothing else matters outside of that. And yeah, of course in Asia or whatever,
02:26:09
◼
►
iMessage isn't a lock-in for Apple because everyone uses some other app. But in the US
02:26:15
◼
►
in particular, it definitely is a big advantage for them.
02:26:21
◼
►
So I'll write more about that soon. Anyway, let's move on. Let's parlay this right into
02:26:26
◼
►
talking. Do you want to talk about Siri? I feel like that's too long of a thing.
02:26:30
◼
►
- Yeah, I guess I would tie it to what we talked about
02:26:34
◼
►
with the Pixel phone.
02:26:34
◼
►
And someone, like I wrote a,
02:26:37
◼
►
my article was about this last week,
02:26:39
◼
►
Google and the limits of strategy is what it's called.
02:26:42
◼
►
But someone did a great job.
02:26:43
◼
►
They basically summarized the entire article in a tweet,
02:26:46
◼
►
which I don't know if that speaks well of me
02:26:48
◼
►
or well of them.
02:26:49
◼
►
Or poorly of me.
02:26:51
◼
►
But basically they said the problem for the future
02:26:54
◼
►
is that Apple has the right business model
02:26:57
◼
►
but the bad technology,
02:26:59
◼
►
and Google has the good technology
02:27:00
◼
►
but the bad business model.
02:27:01
◼
►
And that's oversimplifying it as necessitated by a tweet,
02:27:05
◼
►
but I think that gets at it.
02:27:06
◼
►
I mean, we've talked about it a ton
02:27:08
◼
►
about the fundamental problems Apple has with Siri,
02:27:13
◼
►
whether that be just really, my core thing,
02:27:20
◼
►
this is hard to quantify and so,
02:27:21
◼
►
but we've talked about it, like building a phone
02:27:25
◼
►
that is as polished and usable by millions of people
02:27:30
◼
►
and is so great like Apple does.
02:27:34
◼
►
The mindset and approaches and everything
02:27:37
◼
►
about an organization and the sort of people
02:27:38
◼
►
that want to work there and all that sort of stuff
02:27:40
◼
►
is very, very different from building an iterative
02:27:42
◼
►
web service that is self-learning and self-improving.
02:27:45
◼
►
Like just the entire way a company is structured,
02:27:48
◼
►
what's valued, the sort of people who want to work there,
02:27:49
◼
►
all these sort of factors go in different directions.
02:27:52
◼
►
If you're good at the sort of stuff that makes Siri good,
02:27:54
◼
►
would you rather work at Google
02:27:56
◼
►
or would you rather work at Siri?
02:27:57
◼
►
You'd rather work at Google
02:27:58
◼
►
and everything about the company
02:27:59
◼
►
is going to support you in doing that.
02:28:01
◼
►
If you wanna build beautiful hardware
02:28:04
◼
►
and finished products and an operating system
02:28:07
◼
►
that's fully tied into it and is this jewel,
02:28:10
◼
►
would you rather work at Google and build a Pixel phone,
02:28:12
◼
►
would you rather work at Apple and build an iPhone?
02:28:14
◼
►
And that's a very, that's at an individual level
02:28:18
◼
►
but all that stuff goes into the whole organization
02:28:20
◼
►
and so people always,
02:28:22
◼
►
'cause I talk about Apple services a lot
02:28:23
◼
►
and Apple fans in particular just get really annoyed at me
02:28:26
◼
►
all the time, which is unfortunate
02:28:29
◼
►
because when I am criticizing Apple's culture
02:28:34
◼
►
and organizational structure and way of thinking
02:28:37
◼
►
in the context of services, that is the exact same thing
02:28:40
◼
►
as complimenting Apple in their ability
02:28:43
◼
►
to create amazing products.
02:28:44
◼
►
Like they are one in the same thing.
02:28:46
◼
►
I'm not saying Apple is incompetent.
02:28:48
◼
►
I'm not saying they're bad.
02:28:49
◼
►
I'm saying by virtue of optimizing for one,
02:28:52
◼
►
there is a trade-off.
02:28:53
◼
►
And same thing for Google, by virtue of optimizing
02:28:56
◼
►
for a services iterative approach,
02:28:59
◼
►
there's a trade-off on the other side.
02:29:00
◼
►
You can see Amazon's the most extreme example.
02:29:02
◼
►
Amazon is the most modular, most iterative.
02:29:06
◼
►
All their teams are expected
02:29:07
◼
►
to not even talk to each other, right?
02:29:08
◼
►
No integration at all.
02:29:09
◼
►
They're all supposed to have standard interfaces
02:29:10
◼
►
that interact from inside the company all the way out.
02:29:13
◼
►
And that's why they can build something
02:29:14
◼
►
like Amazon Web Services that is super scalable,
02:29:16
◼
►
super modular, all this sort of stuff.
02:29:18
◼
►
What happens when a company like that
02:29:19
◼
►
tries to build a phone?
02:29:20
◼
►
It's the biggest piece of fucking shit
02:29:22
◼
►
I've ever used in my life.
02:29:23
◼
►
Like, and that doesn't make Amazons dumb.
02:29:26
◼
►
It means they're, by optimizing so strongly
02:29:29
◼
►
for one approach, it makes them brilliant
02:29:31
◼
►
in the areas where that approach fits,
02:29:33
◼
►
and it makes them terrible in the other areas,
02:29:35
◼
►
and that terrible, that terribleness is a sign of strength.
02:29:37
◼
►
So the worst is being mediocre, just stuck in the middle.
02:29:41
◼
►
- We have to go quick, but my observation,
02:29:43
◼
►
so this whole thing got kicked off by,
02:29:44
◼
►
in my opinion, a great Walt Mossberg column.
02:29:47
◼
►
I mean, truly, really great, which was headlined
02:29:50
◼
►
Why Does Siri Seem So Dumb?
02:29:53
◼
►
And I thought it was very fair
02:29:56
◼
►
in evaluating the current state of Siri
02:29:58
◼
►
and expressing a sort of exasperation that,
02:30:01
◼
►
look, Siri debuted five years ago,
02:30:02
◼
►
literally like five years to the month,
02:30:04
◼
►
and it just doesn't seem five years better.
02:30:07
◼
►
And it seems like it should be better,
02:30:08
◼
►
and some of these things that don't work should work.
02:30:12
◼
►
And it's confounding when the same thing
02:30:16
◼
►
works on your iPhone but doesn't work on your iPad.
02:30:19
◼
►
You know, he was talking about,
02:30:20
◼
►
like he'd asked something about Tim Cook,
02:30:22
◼
►
He's got Tim Cook's contact card, a nice name drop wall.
02:30:28
◼
►
But on his one device, it knows that Tim Cook
02:30:30
◼
►
is one of his contacts and knows how to contact him.
02:30:33
◼
►
And on the other one, it just gives him
02:30:34
◼
►
like the Wikipedia page for Tim Cook,
02:30:36
◼
►
because it thinks you're talking about him as like a celebrity.
02:30:39
◼
►
But why in the world wouldn't that work the same way?
02:30:42
◼
►
And how do you debug that as a user?
02:30:45
◼
►
You can't, because it's a black box.
02:30:46
◼
►
And it's very frustrating.
02:30:47
◼
►
And then my little response to it
02:30:49
◼
►
was just about the frustration that they still
02:30:52
◼
►
can't do multi-stage answers. And it was a legitimate thing I wanted to do. I'm a political
02:30:56
◼
►
junkie. I don't want to miss the next presidential debate. So I asked, "When's the next presidential
02:31:00
◼
►
debate?" I got the answer. And then I said, "Add that to my calendar." And Siri cannot do that.
02:31:06
◼
►
It can't even maintain that level of multi-step stage answers. And to me, five years in,
02:31:13
◼
►
it seems to me like that's something it ought to be able to do. And my other—
02:31:19
◼
►
The other thing with the presidential debate is it shows it now, but that was because the
02:31:24
◼
►
first presidential debate, Siri didn't know at all.
02:31:26
◼
►
And it was a big thing on Twitter where people were pointing out that every assistant can
02:31:29
◼
►
tell you when the presidential debate is, but Siri couldn't.
02:31:32
◼
►
So I think actually Apple manually added that in in response to the uproar.
02:31:38
◼
►
My other point in my article was that the big problem Apple faces, two big problems.
02:31:44
◼
►
One is just making Siri better, but two is even if they succeed and make it better, I
02:31:48
◼
►
I think that there's a huge problem where so many people
02:31:50
◼
►
have been burned by trying Siri and feeling like a fool
02:31:54
◼
►
because it doesn't work that they won't even notice.
02:31:56
◼
►
And I notice it, one area where Twitter,
02:31:59
◼
►
or where Siri, they call it a Siri feature,
02:32:02
◼
►
but just voice dictation, just if you hit
02:32:05
◼
►
the little microphone and dictate what you're trying
02:32:07
◼
►
to say into the text field, it works so much better
02:32:11
◼
►
than it used to, and it's so super useful to me
02:32:14
◼
►
as a pedestrian in a city.
02:32:15
◼
►
I dictate texts all the time, and it's,
02:32:18
◼
►
I don't know what the accuracy rate is,
02:32:20
◼
►
but it's in the high 90s, and it's not perfect,
02:32:23
◼
►
and it can still improve it, but it's way, way useful,
02:32:26
◼
►
super useful, and I know a lot of people
02:32:28
◼
►
who never even use it because they tried it
02:32:30
◼
►
two or three years ago, and it was so bad
02:32:31
◼
►
that they've never gone back to it,
02:32:33
◼
►
and I think that that's true Siri-wide.
02:32:36
◼
►
Here's the thing I've noticed in the response to my article.
02:32:39
◼
►
In the response to my article, especially on Twitter,
02:32:42
◼
►
but it's so many people who are like,
02:32:44
◼
►
Finally, an article acknowledging that Siri is complete dog shit.
02:32:49
◼
►
Siri is completely useless, and then linked to my article.
02:32:52
◼
►
That's not what I wrote.
02:32:53
◼
►
I didn't say it's completely useless.
02:32:55
◼
►
I'm disappointed in the state of Siri, but I'm not saying that.
02:32:58
◼
►
But people are so angry at Siri.
02:33:02
◼
►
And I think it's because--
02:33:04
◼
►
this is my theory--
02:33:05
◼
►
that the whole reason that people have become Apple users--
02:33:10
◼
►
and the iPhone is so popular that the iPhone clearly
02:33:13
◼
►
selling to people who really aren't really like fans of Apple, but people who read Daring
02:33:17
◼
►
Fireball and have Apple devices are what I would consider Apple's core audience. People
02:33:23
◼
►
who want to pay a little extra money to get really good products. And because they really
02:33:28
◼
►
care about getting good products and they're not price sensitive, when part of the experience
02:33:32
◼
►
is definitely not premium, it infuriates them.
02:33:38
◼
►
The other thing is I think Siri itself is infuriating.
02:33:41
◼
►
And I despise like Siri's like cutesiness.
02:33:46
◼
►
So I posted this on Twitter last month, this example.
02:33:49
◼
►
So I, and this is word for word exactly what happened.
02:33:53
◼
►
So I'm gonna quote.
02:33:54
◼
►
Ben, hey Siri, remind me to set my line up tomorrow
02:33:56
◼
►
at 10 a.m. for fantasy football.
02:33:58
◼
►
Of course Siri just turned on my phone.
02:33:59
◼
►
It's gonna turn on for a little bit.
02:34:00
◼
►
- Yeah, you gotta say, hey Dingus, hey Dingus.
02:34:02
◼
►
- Hey Dingus, sorry.
02:34:03
◼
►
Hey Dingus, remind me to set up my lineup tomorrow
02:34:05
◼
►
Then Dingus says, "Okay, I'll remind you."
02:34:08
◼
►
And then I say, "Make that a weekly reminder."
02:34:11
◼
►
Like the classic, like the next step thing.
02:34:13
◼
►
And then Siri says, "Okay, here is a weekly reminder."
02:34:16
◼
►
And it made a new reminder for me on Tuesday at 9 a.m.
02:34:18
◼
►
Like it's a totally random time that wasn't even right.
02:34:21
◼
►
And then I go, and then I say, "Delete that reminder."
02:34:24
◼
►
And then Siri says, "Okay, I've deleted it.
02:34:26
◼
►
"Make sure you don't forget."
02:34:28
◼
►
And like, it's one thing to fail, right?
02:34:32
◼
►
But then you, the layering on of the cutesiness
02:34:35
◼
►
and Marx just is infuriating.
02:34:38
◼
►
And what I think is the problem is it really puts it
02:34:41
◼
►
in like the uncanny valley,
02:34:43
◼
►
like the sort of movie term that's traditionally
02:34:45
◼
►
around animation where, you know,
02:34:47
◼
►
like the original Pixar movie, all Pixar movies,
02:34:49
◼
►
but particularly when they started,
02:34:51
◼
►
they made the humans very non-human-like.
02:34:54
◼
►
Because like "Polar Express" is kind of
02:34:57
◼
►
the classic example of this.
02:34:58
◼
►
If you make it very human-like, but it's not quite right,
02:35:02
◼
►
there's something in our brains that are repulsed by it.
02:35:05
◼
►
It's called the uncanny valley, right?
02:35:06
◼
►
You need to be all the way to the good side.
02:35:08
◼
►
And the problem is, and I think Apple took
02:35:11
◼
►
the wrong approach from the beginning
02:35:12
◼
►
by making it this sort of assistance sort of thing.
02:35:15
◼
►
I think that's why Google,
02:35:16
◼
►
that's one of the reasons Google calls their assistant Google
02:35:19
◼
►
They don't call it, and it's more robot-like.
02:35:22
◼
►
Because there's an aspect here where,
02:35:25
◼
►
like remember we talked about documents,
02:35:27
◼
►
and documents would just disappear,
02:35:28
◼
►
and we just got mad at ourselves for forgetting to save?
02:35:31
◼
►
Like in retrospect, that's terrible,
02:35:34
◼
►
but from a product perspective,
02:35:36
◼
►
there's something to be said for people blaming themselves
02:35:39
◼
►
instead of blaming the product,
02:35:40
◼
►
or at least having a little empathy for it.
02:35:42
◼
►
Like a Siri, this is a hard request to be fair.
02:35:45
◼
►
I did the multi-step request and Siri can't do that.
02:35:48
◼
►
I should have known better.
02:35:49
◼
►
But had Siri failed, I'd be like, oh, duh.
02:35:52
◼
►
I need to be more explicit.
02:35:53
◼
►
- Except sometimes when Siri can.
02:35:55
◼
►
Except sometimes it can.
02:35:56
◼
►
- Right, which is fair, but it's like,
02:35:59
◼
►
there's no acceptance of like Siri's limitations
02:36:02
◼
►
within the way that Siri is presented.
02:36:04
◼
►
Siri comes across and presents itself
02:36:06
◼
►
as something that's way more capable than it actually is.
02:36:09
◼
►
It way oversells its capabilities,
02:36:11
◼
►
in part by this being cutesy and having these jokes
02:36:14
◼
►
and stuff like that.
02:36:15
◼
►
And that's just not the reality of what it is.
02:36:19
◼
►
And I think that exacerbates it.
02:36:21
◼
►
Like there is no feature on any computer device I use
02:36:24
◼
►
that like literally enrages me,
02:36:27
◼
►
except for the way Siri does.
02:36:29
◼
►
And it's always these cutesy things
02:36:31
◼
►
when it's totally screwed up.
02:36:32
◼
►
Like, it just fail.
02:36:33
◼
►
Like, but that's, I don't know, just, anyhow.
02:36:38
◼
►
I think I might have given you this rant before,
02:36:41
◼
►
but it is one of my biggest rants about Apple products,
02:36:43
◼
►
is the failure to fail gracefully.
02:36:47
◼
►
- All right, we're way over time.
02:36:49
◼
►
But do you want to talk about AR/VR?
02:36:52
◼
►
You definitely do, but you only have,
02:36:53
◼
►
I'm only gonna give you two minutes.
02:36:54
◼
►
I'm gonna give you two minutes.
02:36:56
◼
►
- I just thought, I thought it was,
02:36:57
◼
►
I actually wrote this yesterday,
02:36:59
◼
►
and then Tim Cook today in Tokyo said something about,
02:37:02
◼
►
Apple's more interested in augmented reality
02:37:04
◼
►
than virtual reality because it's part of being
02:37:09
◼
►
in the real world, which is something I've always,
02:37:11
◼
►
generally I agree with.
02:37:13
◼
►
I've always viewed there's two types of computing.
02:37:16
◼
►
There's immersive computing like video games
02:37:18
◼
►
and movies and stuff like that,
02:37:19
◼
►
and there's accompanying computing.
02:37:22
◼
►
There's a better word for it, but that's like your phone.
02:37:24
◼
►
It's with you everywhere.
02:37:25
◼
►
It's the stuff that goes with you
02:37:26
◼
►
and makes your life better,
02:37:28
◼
►
and versus one is like an escape from life.
02:37:31
◼
►
And to me, that's always been the division
02:37:32
◼
►
between virtual reality and augmented reality.
02:37:35
◼
►
And it was so interesting, and I always go back,
02:37:38
◼
►
one of my favorite, one of the best Steve Jobs quotes,
02:37:40
◼
►
there's a lot of them obviously,
02:37:41
◼
►
but the computer is a bicycle for the mind, right?
02:37:44
◼
►
That is very much in this augmented sort of approach,
02:37:48
◼
►
where the goal of a computer,
02:37:53
◼
►
and this is something that's very, I think,
02:37:54
◼
►
core to Apple, is to make you better,
02:37:58
◼
►
to enhance the experience, to make you more productive.
02:38:01
◼
►
And I think it's one of the reasons why Apple's
02:38:03
◼
►
never really had the gaming gene in them.
02:38:05
◼
►
They've never really been about escapism.
02:38:07
◼
►
Obviously the iPhones become dominant in gaming,
02:38:10
◼
►
but that's almost like an accident of history.
02:38:13
◼
►
Apple's thinking's always been this direction.
02:38:16
◼
►
And the reason I wrote about this yesterday,
02:38:18
◼
►
I wrote about that quote when Facebook bought Oculus
02:38:20
◼
►
a year and a half ago, or two and a half years ago,
02:38:22
◼
►
whenever it was.
02:38:23
◼
►
And there was just the Oculus keynote last week.
02:38:27
◼
►
And in the keynote, I just found it really disquieting
02:38:30
◼
►
because Mark Zuckerberg went on this big thing
02:38:33
◼
►
about how I'm an engineer, I want to make the world better,
02:38:35
◼
►
we can make everything better, blah, blah, blah.
02:38:37
◼
►
And he's talking about these immersive VR experiences.
02:38:41
◼
►
And it felt like an attempt,
02:38:44
◼
►
we're going to create a new reality
02:38:46
◼
►
'cause the current one isn't great.
02:38:48
◼
►
And well, leaving aside the fact
02:38:49
◼
►
that the current one isn't great,
02:38:51
◼
►
arguably because Facebook is so busy
02:38:53
◼
►
creating everyone's individual reality
02:38:55
◼
►
that once we're all in the same place,
02:38:57
◼
►
we have like it all kind of explodes.
02:38:59
◼
►
It's just such a fundamentally different way
02:39:03
◼
►
of thinking about computing than the Apple one.
02:39:05
◼
►
And it's gonna be fascinating to see how that plays out.
02:39:09
◼
►
Of course, there's like, oh, we're gonna go from VR to AR,
02:39:11
◼
►
but it's a different way of thinking about computers,
02:39:16
◼
►
thinking about computing, the way the world works.
02:39:18
◼
►
I for one am certainly on the Apple approach,
02:39:21
◼
►
but it's gonna be fascinating to see
02:39:24
◼
►
how it actually plays out over the next several years.
02:39:27
◼
►
- You made my point exactly, which is that of course
02:39:29
◼
►
Apple's more interested in AR versus VR
02:39:32
◼
►
because it's the same reason that they've never been
02:39:34
◼
►
a powerhouse in gaming, exactly.
02:39:36
◼
►
And VR is obviously a great, going to be,
02:39:40
◼
►
it's already, PlayStation VR is shipping.
02:39:42
◼
►
It's going to be a big deal for gaming.
02:39:44
◼
►
- It's sitting at my house in Wisconsin actually.
02:39:46
◼
►
- Is it really, wow.
02:39:48
◼
►
- Yeah, just got delivered yesterday.
02:39:49
◼
►
- Might be coming down the chimney at Christmas here.
02:39:53
◼
►
- Well, Jodice better not listen to the podcast.
02:39:56
◼
►
- No, he definitely doesn't listen to the podcast.
02:39:57
◼
►
Well, he doesn't believe in Santa, so it's, you know.
02:40:01
◼
►
It's already in negotiations.
02:40:02
◼
►
- He's missing out all over the place, yeah.
02:40:05
◼
►
- And there might be other applications for it as well,
02:40:08
◼
►
but gaming is obvious.
02:40:09
◼
►
I don't even think it's a question
02:40:10
◼
►
that it's gonna be a factor in gaming, henceforth.
02:40:13
◼
►
AR is much more of an Apple-like technology.
02:40:17
◼
►
I find it interesting that Tim Cook
02:40:19
◼
►
is opening his mouth about it, though.
02:40:21
◼
►
It's a very Apple-like thing to comment on it
02:40:23
◼
►
general, you know. But Tim Cook's always been a little bit more open about Steve
02:40:26
◼
►
Jobs about stuff like that, like the whole thing where at the one conference,
02:40:29
◼
►
the Walt Mossberg/Kara Swisher conference, where he said that the wrist is
02:40:34
◼
►
an interesting opportunity on wearables. Right, yeah. Like two years before the Apple Watch.
02:40:38
◼
►
And we lost Steve Jobs' ridiculing video on iPods. Exactly, right. The
02:40:43
◼
►
products already existed. Right, Steve Jobs would have been like, nobody wears
02:40:48
◼
►
watches anymore. Yeah. Like up till two days before they announced the Apple Watch.
02:40:52
◼
►
- He would have said, "Watch is the stupidest thing
02:40:54
◼
►
"I've ever heard.
02:40:55
◼
►
"Nobody wears a watch anymore."
02:40:56
◼
►
- The other thing that's interesting,
02:40:59
◼
►
we don't have time to talk about it,
02:41:00
◼
►
but I think the Snapchat spectacles
02:41:02
◼
►
are absolutely fascinating.
02:41:03
◼
►
One of the most interesting new products in a while.
02:41:05
◼
►
- Is that the Snapchat thing you wanted to talk about?
02:41:07
◼
►
- Yeah. - The spectacles?
02:41:09
◼
►
- Yeah, the reason it's so interesting is,
02:41:11
◼
►
one of the many reasons why Google Glass went wrong
02:41:15
◼
►
is it was like a novelty item, right?
02:41:20
◼
►
yes, it's like, why would you wear them?
02:41:22
◼
►
So they packed, it's like the Apple Watch in some respects,
02:41:24
◼
►
they packed on a video camera and a speaker
02:41:26
◼
►
and all this sorts of stuff.
02:41:27
◼
►
And it's like, well, hey, then what's the point?
02:41:29
◼
►
There was a store on Android,
02:41:30
◼
►
but it wasn't really connected to your phone.
02:41:32
◼
►
It wasn't integrated.
02:41:33
◼
►
It was just this contraption for a lot of money
02:41:35
◼
►
you put in your head and then what?
02:41:36
◼
►
You look like an idiot.
02:41:38
◼
►
What's so fascinating about the spectacles--
02:41:40
◼
►
- And didn't even get a good AR display.
02:41:44
◼
►
- Yeah, no, yeah, the whole thing was terrible.
02:41:46
◼
►
It was, it's not that, and ever so,
02:41:49
◼
►
the spectacles come out like, Oh, Google Glass was a terrible idea.
02:41:51
◼
►
Why is it better? Well, the reason for it to do better is it,
02:41:54
◼
►
there's an obvious use case like you are, Snapchat already exists.
02:41:59
◼
►
You already have people following you already have the stories.
02:42:01
◼
►
You already have the memories thing where this video can go.
02:42:03
◼
►
You already have this idea of 10 second video and this is just an easier way to
02:42:08
◼
►
And it's like they created the need for this product and now this product is
02:42:12
◼
►
coming in to fill the need again, need maybe overstating it,
02:42:15
◼
►
but there's an obvious place where these fit.
02:42:18
◼
►
And that's such a powerful thing
02:42:21
◼
►
when it comes to creating sort of a new category.
02:42:24
◼
►
But then once you have them on your,
02:42:27
◼
►
once you own them, once they're there,
02:42:29
◼
►
then you can start building out all the other stuff.
02:42:31
◼
►
Like you can do the display stuff,
02:42:33
◼
►
you can do the speaker stuff.
02:42:34
◼
►
And thanks to Gruber's law,
02:42:36
◼
►
that's gonna get more and more viable over time.
02:42:39
◼
►
And it's just, it's really fascinating
02:42:41
◼
►
because the hardest thing is like,
02:42:42
◼
►
why do you wear the watch?
02:42:44
◼
►
Why do you wear the AirPods?
02:42:45
◼
►
The AirPods are more like the Spectacles in this.
02:42:47
◼
►
Why do you wear the AirPods?
02:42:48
◼
►
Well, the iPhone 7 doesn't have a headphone jack anymore
02:42:51
◼
►
and you need wireless headphones.
02:42:53
◼
►
The reality is the potential of the AirPods is amazing.
02:42:57
◼
►
We're getting to computers in your ears.
02:42:59
◼
►
And the potential, that's unbelievable
02:43:01
◼
►
for all the things we talked about.
02:43:03
◼
►
But you have to, you have to,
02:43:04
◼
►
(imitates explosion)
02:43:05
◼
►
to use the term, like cross the chasm,
02:43:07
◼
►
you have to have a reason for them to exist
02:43:09
◼
►
and there's an obvious reason for AirPods to exist.
02:43:11
◼
►
And now they have the foothold and they can expand that.
02:43:13
◼
►
Same thing with the Spectacles when it comes to things
02:43:14
◼
►
augmented reality. That will arguably be one of Apple's biggest competitors in the very
02:43:22
◼
►
long run because they have a way to get on your face, and that's the hardest challenge
02:43:25
◼
►
for any sort of wearable.
02:43:26
◼
►
I will just add that Gruber's law isn't just Moore's law because some aspects of things
02:43:30
◼
►
that were slow and have gotten faster don't really have to do anything to do with getting
02:43:34
◼
►
more transistors onto a CPU.
02:43:37
◼
►
Yeah, no, I know. I've given you a hard time.
02:43:40
◼
►
I know, but I just want to defend myself that it's anything you can think of that's low,
02:43:43
◼
►
wireless networking. Well, wireless networking got a lot faster. I don't really think that's
02:43:50
◼
►
related to Moore's law. It's just a general, it's even more obvious. I think the thing
02:43:59
◼
►
about SnapChat, the glasses, whatever they call them, the goggles, whatever the hell
02:44:03
◼
►
they are, it's an honest product and they clearly have a very, I don't want them, I
02:44:10
◼
►
don't really understand Snapchat.
02:44:11
◼
►
I don't want them.
02:44:12
◼
►
But at least it, to me, is a very honest product,
02:44:15
◼
►
meaning it's whoever designed it and whoever's pitching it
02:44:19
◼
►
Whereas the thing with Google Glass that made it such a joke
02:44:22
◼
►
is that it was so pretentious, and they thought
02:44:24
◼
►
it was so goddamn serious.
02:44:26
◼
►
And it was like--
02:44:27
◼
►
It was technology for technology's sake.
02:44:29
◼
►
It was such an emperor has no clothes situation where
02:44:32
◼
►
it's like, you've got to be kidding me.
02:44:33
◼
►
That thing is a joke, and you're treating it
02:44:36
◼
►
Like it's the next big step or first step
02:44:38
◼
►
in a new direction.
02:44:40
◼
►
Whereas the Snapchat thing,
02:44:43
◼
►
what they're saying about it,
02:44:44
◼
►
it seems to me exactly what it is.
02:44:46
◼
►
They're describing it as a toy.
02:44:47
◼
►
It's fun, it's not supposed to be serious.
02:44:49
◼
►
This isn't, you know, it's just a thing to have fun with.
02:44:52
◼
►
And that's exactly what it looks like.
02:44:54
◼
►
And it's exactly how it's priced.
02:44:55
◼
►
Isn't it like 100 bucks or something like that?
02:44:57
◼
►
- Yeah, 130 I think.
02:44:58
◼
►
And that's the best way to launch a new category,
02:45:03
◼
►
is as a toy.
02:45:05
◼
►
And the iPhone, what was the ridicule about the iPhone
02:45:08
◼
►
from Microsoft and rim?
02:45:10
◼
►
Oh, it's nice, but when people wanna actually do work,
02:45:14
◼
►
they're gonna use our products.
02:45:15
◼
►
And yeah, it's, so it's a compelling space.
02:45:20
◼
►
Yeah, you're right, Apple's forwardness about it
02:45:22
◼
►
is interesting, but it's certainly one
02:45:25
◼
►
that's gonna be very interesting to watch.
02:45:28
◼
►
- I don't get his, I don't get why he's opening
02:45:30
◼
►
his mouth out about it, but you know,
02:45:32
◼
►
work for a watch, I guess, I don't know.
02:45:34
◼
►
Yeah, I mean, I think that there's, I would imagine, there's stock issues or stock price
02:45:43
◼
►
considerations.
02:45:44
◼
►
It's to have the new shiny out there is beneficial.
02:45:47
◼
►
I don't know.
02:45:49
◼
►
I guess maybe they've resigned themselves that anything hardware related is going to
02:45:52
◼
►
leak anyway.
02:45:53
◼
►
So my thought was maybe if it's true that the car thing is really downsized or setback
02:45:58
◼
►
or something like that, it's, well, you need a plan B. It's going to be AR.
02:46:04
◼
►
AR. No, of course Apple's looking into AR. I don't have anything else. That's the bottom of my
02:46:10
◼
►
copious notes. Maybe keeping these notes is a problem because now the show ran long.
02:46:17
◼
►
Well, no, I think we had multiple digressions and general meandering talk for the first two hours,
02:46:23
◼
►
and then in 35 minutes we covered multiple shows worth of material.
02:46:26
◼
►
Oh my God, we didn't even get to the fact that my beloved Dallas Cowboys are playing
02:46:31
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your beloved Green Bay Packers this weekend? In Lambeau, right? At Lambeau Field. That's
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a play game. Yes, yes. The House of Des Bryant Horrors, which I think he will be back.
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I think he is going to be back. I think he is set to be back. And I think Vegas has the line at
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Green Bay by four. So here's the question. If Tony Romo comes back, who do you want to be the
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starting quarterback? I want Tony Romo to be back. I feel like he deserves it. But I feel like he's
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He's back and he's on a short leash
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Yeah, well, I mean the
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The problem has never been that he's you know bad when he's healthy. It's the problem is he's broken down
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Yeah, so I think even if he comes back he's got a terrible run of luck, right?
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I do they were great last year. Well, they were the great right now two years ago two years ago two years ago
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Okay. Yeah last year was the year where he missed almost all the whole season and they were terrible without him
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So I think it would be you know, but well do you feel I think we will do you a favor this week and expose
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Expose Prescott so it is possible easier to insert Romo back that that's actually true where it would actually saw like a
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Bad outing by Prescott and in Lambeau would actually ease the political pressure there
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The thing I keep thinking about is the Tom Brady drew Bledsoe back. Yeah God
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It was like what 40 years ago it feels like
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So it was like the second highest rated passer in the AFC at the time and got injured and a no-name
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quarterback out of Michigan
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named Tom Brady was picked in like the
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873rd round of the draft came in and won eight straight games and drew Bledsoe never took a snap again. Yep
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No, that that's that's the classic example
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So we'll see. I think it's gonna be wrong. We have a great run defense
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So if Prescott is having to pass in long situations, not running play action,
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I think it's gonna be challenging for him.
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So we'll see, we'll see.
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>> I'm excited, I was excited last week watching Dallas play.
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>> So we should put it, so what's our wager gonna be?
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>> Are you a betting man?
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What should we bet?
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I mean- >> I'm not a betting man.
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I only do these sort of friendly wagers where I'm going against someone.
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Would you like steak dinner or something like that?
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>> Yeah, all right, steak dinner next time we're in town together.
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- With the line or without the line?
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- Oh, I'll take four points.
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- Straight up, straight up, should be straight up.
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That's, what is the line anyway?
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Is it three or something?
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- I think it's four.
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- Four, so we're a favorite by one point basically.
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- Yeah, basically, like in a neutral field
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would be one point, which to me is a little,
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maybe Vegas is starting to get Dallas fever.
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Seems to me like one point on a neutral field
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is a little optimistic for Dallas.
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- Yeah, well the problem is Green Bay's,
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especially the last couple of years,
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given up a lot of backdoor covers.
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So I think that's probably part of it as well.
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We'll jump out and then like Detroit,
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like we were up, what, like 28-0 or 31-0 or something,
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ended up being 31-28.
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- Well, the thing to me is that Aaron Rodgers
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is in that class of quarterbacks where I would rather,
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I would rather be down,
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I'd rather be down two or three points, maybe even four points, and have Aaron Rodgers have
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the ball and two minutes on the clock than have the lead and the other way around.
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To me, that's worth three or four points.
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To me, you get three points for being at home and you get three or four points for having
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a quarterback who, with two minutes to go in the game, you'd rather just have the other
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team score and get the ball back because you'd rather have the ball than let them run it
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down to zero.
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You know what I mean?
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I do, I do. Well, okay, I'll give you the points. I'm feeling confident.
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Deal. Handshake.
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Virtual. In virtual reality.
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Alright. Thank you for being on the show, Ben. Everybody can get more Ben Thompson at
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theexcelenstretecory.com. Everybody, if you're not a subscriber to Stratechery, I don't know
02:50:36
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what you're doing with your money, but you'd be better off subscribing to Stratechery.
02:50:40
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After all, I have a steak dinner to buy, potentially.
02:50:43
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- Yeah, actually, yeah, he's got a stick dinner to buy.
02:50:45
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And then your podcast is Exponent FM
02:50:49
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with your co-host, whose name I forget.
02:50:52
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- James Allworth, yep, Exponent.fm.
02:50:54
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- So if you like hearing his voice,
02:50:55
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you can get more of his voice
02:50:56
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before he's on the talk show again.
02:50:59
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- I was hoping you were gonna do pull the dulcet tones.
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- The dulcet tones, you do have dulcet tones.
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It's also good to have you on the show
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when you're not drunk.
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I am usually not drunk for the record.
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No, I don't think there's much difference, really.