The Talk Show

00:00:00 ◼   ► So I don't even know where to start.

00:00:02 ◼   ► Have you seen this?

00:00:03 ◼   ► It's just BitMe today.

00:00:04 ◼   ► So we're recording Sunday, September 4th.

00:00:09 ◼   ► Show will probably be out tomorrow.

00:00:12 ◼   ► And then Wednesday-- what's that, three days from now?

00:00:15 ◼   ► --is Apple's event.

00:00:16 ◼   ► So we're doing a pre-Apple event.

00:00:18 ◼   ► Let's round up everything before we head to the airport

00:00:21 ◼   ► and meet each other in San Francisco show.

00:00:23 ◼   ► On the weekends, more and more, I

00:00:28 ◼   ► spend almost all my time on the iPhone,

00:00:30 ◼   ► either iPhone or iPhone and iPad.

00:00:32 ◼   ► Try to stay out of my office, stay off the Mac,

00:00:34 ◼   ► don't really do work and just sort of read on the phone.

00:00:37 ◼   ► And I ran into this today and it's one of these things,

00:00:40 ◼   ► I've heard other people talk about it.

00:00:42 ◼   ► I think it's happened to me before,

00:00:44 ◼   ► but I've never really paid too much attention

00:00:46 ◼   ► and it happened all of a sudden.

00:00:48 ◼   ► But I was just browsing on Twitter, open to link,

00:00:51 ◼   ► and the screen went black on my phone.

00:00:53 ◼   ► And then I held down the power button and it said,

00:00:56 ◼   ► you have to, you know, it gave me the signal

00:00:58 ◼   ► to plug it into power,

00:00:59 ◼   ► like as though the battery had run out.

00:01:01 ◼   ► But I'm convinced I had more than 50% battery life left.

00:01:04 ◼   ► And so I plugged it in,

00:01:07 ◼   ► I just waited like seriously, like a minute,

00:01:10 ◼   ► and it, the phone came back on, the Apple logo came on,

00:01:12 ◼   ► and it had like, I don't know, 60% battery?

00:01:15 ◼   ► Have you ever seen this?

00:01:18 ◼   ► - I have heard about it.

00:01:19 ◼   ► It has never happened to me.

00:01:20 ◼   ► It's happened to me with the Apple Watch

00:01:21 ◼   ► where all of a sudden it'll go,

00:01:22 ◼   ► duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh duh du

00:01:52 ◼   ► I've Googled it a little bit and it sounds bad.

00:01:56 ◼   ► It sounds like if I go into the Apple store

00:01:58 ◼   ► that they're gonna take my iPhone and give me a new one,

00:02:00 ◼   ► but I don't wanna do that before I travel.

00:02:02 ◼   ► - No, absolutely, and from what I saw too,

00:02:05 ◼   ► 'cause I looked around as well,

00:02:06 ◼   ► it seems like it misunderstands its state

00:02:08 ◼   ► and then it goes into that panic shutdown

00:02:10 ◼   ► to conserve the last bit of battery you have left mode

00:02:13 ◼   ► and then once it gets power back,

00:02:14 ◼   ► it's like, oh no, okay, everything's fine,

00:02:16 ◼   ► I got 50%, we're good, we're good, sorry, bad.

00:02:19 ◼   ► - Right, like it seems like a bad problem

00:02:21 ◼   ► and maybe after I get back home next week,

00:02:25 ◼   ► maybe I'll go ahead and do it.

00:02:26 ◼   ► But before I go to San Francisco,

00:02:29 ◼   ► there's absolutely no way I'm swapping this phone out.

00:02:32 ◼   ► - Yeah, you never know.

00:02:33 ◼   ► - It is funny too, it makes me laugh

00:02:39 ◼   ► that my year old iPhone 6S is starting to act up.

00:02:44 ◼   ► Literally. - It's pissed.

00:02:45 ◼   ► It's upset, it knows you're about to replace it.

00:02:47 ◼   ► It knows you're gonna take it with you to replace it.

00:02:49 ◼   ► - Right.

00:02:51 ◼   ► - Right, it's like the indignity of it,

00:02:53 ◼   ► of taking it with me to--

00:02:57 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:02:59 ◼   ► - I forgot to say that last year,

00:03:00 ◼   ► but one of our friends tweeted that I'm watching my iPhone

00:03:03 ◼   ► get replaced on the iPhone that's gonna be replaced.

00:03:06 ◼   ► - Right.

00:03:06 ◼   ► So among the things that have leaked in the last week or so

00:03:13 ◼   ► is, I'll start with,

00:03:20 ◼   ► - Oh, I don't even know where to start.

00:03:21 ◼   ► How about we start with these boxes that have leaked, right?

00:03:23 ◼   ► The packaging.

00:03:25 ◼   ► And for some reason, the ones that have leaked,

00:03:26 ◼   ► a lot of them are seemingly destined for Russia.

00:03:30 ◼   ► - It's weird, 'cause as far as I know,

00:03:31 ◼   ► they hit US shores yesterday.

00:03:33 ◼   ► So they should all be getting unpacked

00:03:35 ◼   ► and on their way starting this weekend.

00:03:38 ◼   ► - Interesting, that seems like it's too early though, right?

00:03:40 ◼   ► 'Cause what do you expect?

00:03:42 ◼   ► I expect that they're probably gonna go on sale this week,

00:03:48 ◼   ► but they're not gonna ship until the week after,

00:03:50 ◼   ► I don't think.

00:03:51 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's usually the week after.

00:03:51 ◼   ► I think last year they took an extra week to ship,

00:03:53 ◼   ► but I think there's just such massive quantities

00:03:55 ◼   ► being shipped that they need to build up stock,

00:03:58 ◼   ► and it's a massive enterprise

00:04:00 ◼   ► that takes them a few weeks to do.

00:04:01 ◼   ► - Right, I can't even imagine.

00:04:04 ◼   ► But anyway, some of these boxes for the iPhone 7 have leaked

00:04:07 ◼   ► and they're, according to the,

00:04:09 ◼   ► and of course the box would be the easiest thing to fake,

00:04:11 ◼   ► and everybody acknowledges that,

00:04:13 ◼   ► so take it with a massive grain of salt if you choose to.

00:04:16 ◼   ► But the box calls these devices the iPhone 7 and the iPhone 7 Plus.

00:04:22 ◼   ► So the least surprising names possible.

00:04:26 ◼   ► Well last week's box leak was 6 SE, which was obviously faked.

00:04:31 ◼   ► Yeah, I saw it. I don't know why. That one really looked fake.

00:04:35 ◼   ► But it's weird. There are...

00:04:39 ◼   ► are some of these box leaks say that the phones include AirPod wireless earbuds

00:04:46 ◼   ► and some say that they include lightning earbuds and a lightning to headphone

00:04:54 ◼   ► jack adapter. So I guess it depends the person faking the box which their

00:04:57 ◼   ► preference is and that's what they put on the Photoshop. What do you

00:05:01 ◼   ► think? Do you think that these boxes are fake or do you think that they're legit

00:05:04 ◼   ► or what? It's hard to tell. I try to think of what Apple would do and

00:05:08 ◼   ► Historically, they have not been great

00:05:09 ◼   ► about including adapters.

00:05:10 ◼   ► I famously, when they went from the dock

00:05:12 ◼   ► to the lightning adapter,

00:05:14 ◼   ► not only did they not include a lightning adapter

00:05:17 ◼   ► in the box, they did not have any available at retail.

00:05:19 ◼   ► And if anything happened to the one lightning cable you had,

00:05:22 ◼   ► you were just totally screwed for a couple of weeks.

00:05:25 ◼   ► And then, you know, other adapters they've had day and date,

00:05:28 ◼   ► but they were 20 bucks, 30 bucks, 40 bucks.

00:05:30 ◼   ► They were never included in the box.

00:05:32 ◼   ► So standard Apple would be nothing in the box,

00:05:34 ◼   ► but the lightning ear pods.

00:05:35 ◼   ► But you know, we've had a lot of new Apple lately.

00:05:37 ◼   ► I think that part of it is Apple being Apple

00:05:42 ◼   ► and that they can be stingy in those ways

00:05:46 ◼   ► and they can be, what's the word,

00:05:50 ◼   ► for charging an awful lot of money

00:05:52 ◼   ► for seemingly what should be a cheap little dongle.

00:05:55 ◼   ► - Yeah, absolutely.

00:05:56 ◼   ► - But I do think that with lightning in particular,

00:05:59 ◼   ► there is a strategy involved too,

00:06:01 ◼   ► which is that if it doesn't ship with adapter,

00:06:04 ◼   ► it makes it more likely that people will buy

00:06:08 ◼   ► new lighting adapter peripherals.

00:06:12 ◼   ► - Yes. - Right?

00:06:13 ◼   ► Get on board with using lighting.

00:06:13 ◼   ► We don't really want you to use the 30 pin.

00:06:16 ◼   ► We'll make this available so you can have it

00:06:20 ◼   ► if you really need it, but in general,

00:06:22 ◼   ► you should start upgrading your things,

00:06:23 ◼   ► like if you have a dock by your bedside

00:06:26 ◼   ► or something like that, just get a lighting one.

00:06:29 ◼   ► There's a strategy involved with that.

00:06:31 ◼   ► And it's a little different with the headphone jack

00:06:33 ◼   ► because the 30-pin thing was a proprietary Apple thing,

00:06:37 ◼   ► and Apple wanted to replace it.

00:06:40 ◼   ► And it still isn't replaced.

00:06:41 ◼   ► I was just in a hotel this week

00:06:42 ◼   ► that still had the 30-pin things on it.

00:06:44 ◼   ► - Every time.

00:06:46 ◼   ► - It's more and more now.

00:06:47 ◼   ► I'm starting to see some, which is much smarter,

00:06:50 ◼   ► which is that they just have a USB.

00:06:53 ◼   ► So you still need your own cable,

00:06:55 ◼   ► but then whatever phone you have, there's a USB thing,

00:06:57 ◼   ► and you don't need to fiddle with finding a power plug

00:06:59 ◼   ► to plug it in.

00:07:00 ◼   ► You could just plug it right into USB.

00:07:03 ◼   ► But the 30-pin port still lives on.

00:07:05 ◼   ► I just was in a hotel with them.

00:07:07 ◼   ► But with the headphone jack,

00:07:10 ◼   ► I do think that this will,

00:07:12 ◼   ► the iPhone shipping without a standard headphone jack

00:07:14 ◼   ► will presage a shift in the industry

00:07:18 ◼   ► and that two years from now,

00:07:20 ◼   ► we'll see lots of high-end phones

00:07:21 ◼   ► that don't have a standard headphone jack.

00:07:23 ◼   ► - Then it's been a while.

00:07:23 ◼   ► Like I remember my, I had a Touch Pro,

00:07:25 ◼   ► an HTC Touch Pro at one point

00:07:27 ◼   ► and I had an Android phone at one point.

00:07:28 ◼   ► This must have been 2008, 2009.

00:07:31 ◼   ► I just didn't have headphone jacks.

00:07:32 ◼   ► and they had USB into these little breakout dongles,

00:07:35 ◼   ► and that's just what you use,

00:07:37 ◼   ► but then they all switched back,

00:07:38 ◼   ► and now Motorola doesn't have a headphone jack,

00:07:40 ◼   ► and none of those, I think, will ever move the industry,

00:07:43 ◼   ► but when Apple does it, they just shipped so many phones

00:07:46 ◼   ► in such volume and a couple models,

00:07:48 ◼   ► and manufacturers and accessory makers know

00:07:50 ◼   ► that's where a lot of high-value customers are,

00:07:52 ◼   ► that it absolutely does move it.

00:07:53 ◼   ► - So I've written about this, I'm fascinated by it,

00:07:57 ◼   ► because, and to me, it's one of the most interesting stories

00:08:00 ◼   ► of the summer, and I've really enjoyed speculating on it

00:08:03 ◼   ► because it's such a simple issue.

00:08:07 ◼   ► Now the phone doesn't have a headphone jack.

00:08:09 ◼   ► What does it mean?

00:08:10 ◼   ► And so you can go--

00:08:11 ◼   ► there's so much speculation you can do about it.

00:08:13 ◼   ► How are they going to go wireless?

00:08:15 ◼   ► Are they going to go to lightning?

00:08:17 ◼   ► Why would they do this?

00:08:18 ◼   ► Why would they do that?

00:08:20 ◼   ► Because the story is so simple, it's

00:08:22 ◼   ► easy to really go deep on the obsessiveness over it.

00:08:27 ◼   ► So I've really enjoyed the story.

00:08:29 ◼   ► and I've also enjoyed watching--

00:08:30 ◼   ► - The reaction to it just as much.

00:08:32 ◼   ► - Yeah, the reaction is absolutely crazy.

00:08:34 ◼   ► I mean, seriously, I mean, I met a guy this week,

00:08:41 ◼   ► I was traveling, and just, what do you do?

00:08:43 ◼   ► And told him basically what I did.

00:08:46 ◼   ► He'd obviously never heard of tearing Fireball or me.

00:08:48 ◼   ► And he said, "Oh, that's really interesting."

00:08:49 ◼   ► And he said, "So," and this next question was,

00:08:52 ◼   ► "So is Apple really gonna release a phone

00:08:54 ◼   ► without a headphone check?"

00:08:55 ◼   ► Like, just a random guy I was making small talk with

00:08:57 ◼   ► for five minutes in line to get lunch,

00:08:59 ◼   ► And that's, you know, that was just on people's minds.

00:09:03 ◼   ► - My favorite is Dalrymple who gets angry

00:09:05 ◼   ► at people who get angry at the apples taking the headphone.

00:09:07 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:09:09 ◼   ► - If these boxes are all true,

00:09:14 ◼   ► or the ones that seem most true are true,

00:09:16 ◼   ► it would suggest an answer to a question

00:09:19 ◼   ► that I've had for a while, which it seems to me

00:09:21 ◼   ► that replacing the lightning wired,

00:09:26 ◼   ► I mean, the standard 3.5 millimeter wired headphone port

00:09:31 ◼   ► with a lightning wired headphones

00:09:34 ◼   ► is not really an upgrade.

00:09:37 ◼   ► I mean, and it might be, there are engineering constraints

00:09:40 ◼   ► where if you can move that deep port from the phone,

00:09:42 ◼   ► you can use it for something else.

00:09:45 ◼   ► Again, it's not an issue of whether they can make a phone

00:09:49 ◼   ► that has all these, you know,

00:09:50 ◼   ► looks the way they want it to look and still have the jack,

00:09:52 ◼   ► but it's obviously, if everything you take out

00:09:55 ◼   ► leave space for something else and space is precious.

00:09:57 ◼   ► There's two really good stories that I've heard,

00:09:59 ◼   ► and I don't know which one to put more weight on

00:10:00 ◼   ► or whether both are true, but one is that

00:10:03 ◼   ► for the kind of waterproofing Apple wants to do,

00:10:05 ◼   ► removing the headset jack is an advantage.

00:10:07 ◼   ► And I know other phones absolutely do water resistance

00:10:10 ◼   ► with the headphone jack, but Apple, if you look,

00:10:13 ◼   ► Apple really promotes those EPA certifications

00:10:15 ◼   ► and there's all sorts of nano bonding

00:10:16 ◼   ► and chemicals that you can do.

00:10:18 ◼   ► And there probably are more modern ones now

00:10:19 ◼   ► that are really safe, but a couple of years ago,

00:10:21 ◼   ► that was really nasty stuff,

00:10:23 ◼   ► And it may just not be on Apple's radar.

00:10:25 ◼   ► And the other one was they don't want

00:10:27 ◼   ► this to be a story next year.

00:10:28 ◼   ► Because next year, they want it to be about the new design.

00:10:30 ◼   ► And if people are saying, nice new design,

00:10:32 ◼   ► but where's my headphone jack, that's a way worse story

00:10:35 ◼   ► than if people get the headphone jack

00:10:36 ◼   ► and go out of their way this year.

00:10:38 ◼   ► And then next year, it's just smooth sailing

00:10:39 ◼   ► into the new design.

00:10:40 ◼   ► Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a little bit of column

00:10:42 ◼   ► A and a little bit of column B. Both of those things

00:10:44 ◼   ► may well be true.

00:10:45 ◼   ► And I think that you've hit the nail right on the head

00:10:48 ◼   ► in terms of, yes, there are other devices that

00:10:50 ◼   ► have been made that have the standard headphone jack and are waterproof.

00:10:55 ◼   ► And maybe, I think that Sony has some good ones.

00:10:59 ◼   ► Samsung, they have one, but they failed those two consumer reports.

00:11:01 ◼   ► Right.

00:11:02 ◼   ► Right.

00:11:02 ◼   ► So.

00:11:04 ◼   ► Right.

00:11:05 ◼   ► Samsung's had a bad run of it lately.

00:11:07 ◼   ► But yeah, that was exactly it.

00:11:08 ◼   ► Consumer report-- I mean, it really was a disaster.

00:11:11 ◼   ► Samsung says this phone can be submersed.

00:11:14 ◼   ► It's seriously waterproof.

00:11:15 ◼   ► Consumer Reports turned it on, dropped it down to water, and shorted it out.

00:11:19 ◼   ► And it really is a bit of a bullshit standard,

00:11:21 ◼   ► because the dust egress, that's an absolute,

00:11:23 ◼   ► you cannot have any dust in a vacuum at all

00:11:25 ◼   ► go into the phone, but the water egress says,

00:11:27 ◼   ► depending on what manufacturer says,

00:11:29 ◼   ► so, and it's also the phone that Samsung tested

00:11:32 ◼   ► and certified, yeah, that was waterproof.

00:11:34 ◼   ► The one consumer reports, not so much.

00:11:36 ◼   ► So it's really not a very straightforward standard

00:11:40 ◼   ► for the waterproofing part.

00:11:42 ◼   ► - And I do think, you know, it's one of those things,

00:11:44 ◼   ► and I know that Apple's not first to waterproofing,

00:11:46 ◼   ► that there are, you know, Sony ones, Samsung ones,

00:11:48 ◼   ► other people have, whether they actually work or not.

00:11:52 ◼   ► But they're not versed.

00:11:53 ◼   ► But I do think that Apple has quietly,

00:11:55 ◼   ► without announcing it, been working to make

00:11:58 ◼   ► their stuff more waterproof.

00:12:00 ◼   ► I mean, and the watch, by all accounts,

00:12:02 ◼   ► is not waterproof, officially.

00:12:06 ◼   ► But by people in the real world, it effectively is.

00:12:10 ◼   ► A friend of the show, Craig Hockenberry,

00:12:12 ◼   ► swims with his every day.

00:12:13 ◼   ► A lot of people swim with him.

00:12:15 ◼   ► - Tim Cook was saying he showered with it all the time.

00:12:17 ◼   ► Yeah, exactly.

00:12:19 ◼   ► And it's funny because the iPhone 6s was re-engineered

00:12:22 ◼   ► to be more water resistant.

00:12:23 ◼   ► They put a gasket around the entire edge,

00:12:26 ◼   ► and they sealed all the connections.

00:12:28 ◼   ► They didn't advertise it.

00:12:29 ◼   ► I always expected Phil Schiller would at some point

00:12:31 ◼   ► retweet somebody who said, I dropped it in the lake.

00:12:34 ◼   ► It's fine.

00:12:34 ◼   ► Thanks, Phil.

00:12:35 ◼   ► But they just taped totally quiet about it.

00:12:37 ◼   ► Right, so they're not promising.

00:12:40 ◼   ► There's under-promising and over-delivering,

00:12:41 ◼   ► and then there's not promising anything at all

00:12:43 ◼   ► and still delivering some of it.

00:12:45 ◼   ► and I think that's where they've been with the phone.

00:12:47 ◼   ► And it sounds like this year,

00:12:49 ◼   ► they're actually gonna begin promoting it as waterproof

00:12:51 ◼   ► and the headphone jack could be part of that.

00:12:52 ◼   ► - And we're gonna see if it's like IP7,

00:12:54 ◼   ► which is what the Apple Watch is, or IP8,

00:12:56 ◼   ► which is what the Samsung phones are reportedly hitting,

00:12:59 ◼   ► which is just longer periods or deeper submergence.

00:13:01 ◼   ► - Well, we're skipping ahead,

00:13:06 ◼   ► but there was a Ming, what's his name?

00:13:09 ◼   ► - Ming-Chi Kuo.

00:13:10 ◼   ► - Ming-Chi Kuo report that MacRumors picked up

00:13:14 ◼   ► that says IPX7, which is equivalent to the current watch.

00:13:19 ◼   ► But anyway, we shall see. - He's talking very

00:13:21 ◼   ► concerned with his phone.

00:13:22 ◼   ► He's gonna be so happy.

00:13:23 ◼   ► - We shall see.

00:13:24 ◼   ► Anyway, if these both boxes are accurate,

00:13:27 ◼   ► that some of the phones are shipping with these AirPods

00:13:31 ◼   ► and some are shipping with wired lightning headphones

00:13:35 ◼   ► and an adapter, it would clearly,

00:13:38 ◼   ► if both are true, legit, whatever you wanna say,

00:13:40 ◼   ► it's gonna be a paid upgrade.

00:13:44 ◼   ► My guess is you either pay an extra $100 to get the AirPods,

00:13:47 ◼   ► or you'll pay an extra $129.

00:13:49 ◼   ► Although that seems a lot just for the wireless headphones.

00:13:51 ◼   ► It seems like a lot of SKUs.

00:13:53 ◼   ► If you had every phone available with Lightning or with AirPods,

00:13:57 ◼   ► that's double, again, the amount of phones.

00:13:58 ◼   ► They already have extra colors.

00:14:00 ◼   ► They already have extra storage capacities.

00:14:03 ◼   ► I think Apple is unafraid of lots of SKUs.

00:14:07 ◼   ► I mean, the iPad has always been bifurcated

00:14:11 ◼   ► in a sort of similar way where there's always

00:14:14 ◼   ► been cellular and non-cellular models of every shape, color.

00:14:22 ◼   ► Every iPad you can buy comes in a cellular and non-cellular

00:14:25 ◼   ► version.

00:14:26 ◼   ► So something like that sounds like something

00:14:29 ◼   ► they're absolutely unafraid of.

00:14:30 ◼   ► Or do you think it would be the higher end ones

00:14:32 ◼   ► that have the AirPod option?

00:14:34 ◼   ► That's another possibility.

00:14:35 ◼   ► Another possibility would be that if you

00:14:39 ◼   ► the 32 gigabyte one? I mean, again, we're making a lot of assumptions here. The rumor is that

00:14:45 ◼   ► the new ones are going to ship in three size configurations, storage configurations.

00:14:50 ◼   ► 32. Hallelujah. 16 gigabyte is dead. Thank god. Let's hope. And then no more 64. It'll go to 128 and then

00:14:58 ◼   ► 256 and I could see that where maybe the 256 gets some...

00:15:06 ◼   ► but that seems like you're... seems to me like if they're gonna do

00:15:11 ◼   ► some in one and some in the other they might as well let you mix and match

00:15:15 ◼   ► however you want. Yeah and the pricing is always so interesting here like yeah

00:15:18 ◼   ► hallelujah the 16 gigabyte is gone but there are a lot of people in enterprise

00:15:20 ◼   ► who just wanted a dumb client that would hook up to their b2b website and apps

00:15:24 ◼   ► and they would get an 8 gigabyte iPhone if they could just give it all their

00:15:28 ◼   ► employees and they just want to cut every possible

00:15:30 ◼   ► penny imaginable. And when you start getting 256

00:15:33 ◼   ► gigabytes, I think I believe they're doubling the

00:15:35 ◼   ► density of the memory again, which means, and

00:15:37 ◼   ► it's nice people say, you know, just include an

00:15:38 ◼   ► adapter, Apple should just double the RAM, they

00:15:40 ◼   ► should just double the storage, but all of those

00:15:43 ◼   ► are incrementally more expensive. And when you

00:15:44 ◼   ► have an incredibly margin based business, the way

00:15:46 ◼   ► Apple does, any additional cost they put into that

00:15:49 ◼   ► phone comes right out of the margin they're trying

00:15:50 ◼   ► to hit for Wall Street. So it's always for them,

00:15:52 ◼   ► it's almost entirely a pricing game. Right. And

00:15:55 ◼   ► And even the pessimistic view, I mean, and this was, again, this is Ming-Chi Kuo saying

00:16:02 ◼   ► that from the supply chain, they're saying only 65 million iPhones sold in the upcoming

00:16:08 ◼   ► fourth quarter, which would be a steep drop-off from last year where I think it was 80.

00:16:13 ◼   ► But even so, 65 million phones.

00:16:15 ◼   ► So that's a pessimistic take on how many new iPhones, mostly new.

00:16:19 ◼   ► I mean, obviously that includes whatever old ones they're still selling, but tens and tens

00:16:23 ◼   ► of millions of brand new, never-before-manufactured iPhone 7s. It really does. I just saw—I

00:16:30 ◼   ► don't have a link handy—but I just saw a story about how global DRAM pricing is spiking,

00:16:36 ◼   ► and it's all specifically attributed to the iPhone and the ramp-up that Apple needs

00:16:40 ◼   ► to make to make this absurd number of phones. So the story is that because Apple needs all

00:16:46 ◼   ► of this RAM for the phones, and another one of these last-minute rumors—I guess it's

00:16:51 ◼   ► not really last minute, but it seems to have been reiterated last minute, is that

00:16:53 ◼   ► the iPhone 7 Plus is going to come with 3 gigabytes of RAM instead of 2 gigabytes

00:16:58 ◼   ► of RAM. So that just adds up. It's just lots and lots of RAM. So Apple's buying

00:17:04 ◼   ► lots of RAM, which makes prices go up. Factories that manufacture RAM are

00:17:08 ◼   ► shifting to the type of RAM that Apple wants to buy for the iPhones to meet

00:17:13 ◼   ► that demand, which means they're making less for PCs and therefore the PC

00:17:20 ◼   ► market for RAM is going up as a side effect of the iPhone 7.

00:17:25 ◼   ► And I forget which year it was, and I know we talked about this before, but the type

00:17:27 ◼   ► of RAM is also different. I remember for a while they were using TLS RAM and they were

00:17:31 ◼   ► using, I think it was TLS, I forget the two names, one was multi-layer, one was, and it

00:17:35 ◼   ► was just, it was hard to get, if you just doubled the amount of the low one, it was

00:17:38 ◼   ► much more expensive than using the higher one. And so they were using technically less

00:17:42 ◼   ► expensive RAM in the higher end phones, but that's what allowed them to get the double-sized

00:17:46 ◼   ► memories.

00:17:47 ◼   ► Right

00:17:49 ◼   ► It's I mean, I'm glad I don't have to worry about so I my guess is if true if true both are true

00:17:57 ◼   ► I that it'll be $100 extra to get air pods in the box. Yeah instead of nice round number

00:18:03 ◼   ► Yeah

00:18:04 ◼   ► And it kind of makes sense to me too that the adapter would only ship

00:18:08 ◼   ► With the one that comes with wired headphones where they're saying look if you're still into wired headphones, okay

00:18:14 ◼   ► You know, here's your new set of lightning ones and here's your adapter so you can use whatever other ones you want

00:18:18 ◼   ► But the future is

00:18:22 ◼   ► Wireless, you know and I can see how that would be a big part of the presentation on Wednesday that hey we've you know

00:18:29 ◼   ► You know, I could just see a slide where somebody's got the cord all tangled up

00:18:34 ◼   ► And that the future is wireless

00:18:37 ◼   ► Yeah

00:18:37 ◼   ► I wonder because you have just Apple and you you did this so well and in so many articles

00:18:42 ◼   ► Apple thinks about these things and are they thinking we just want to get rid of the headphone jack or are they thinking that we

00:18:47 ◼   ► want to drive the wireless world and clearly with the

00:18:49 ◼   ► The manager book they decided that we're you know, we could they could put more than one USB C port

00:18:55 ◼   ► But they didn't want to do that. They wanted to make a machine that had almost no ports

00:18:59 ◼   ► There's still a concession for power and might as well use USB C

00:19:01 ◼   ► But they clearly messaged that and was on your show two years ago

00:19:05 ◼   ► Phil Schiller said, you know

00:19:06 ◼   ► We wanted to make a computer for the wireless world and if that's what they want to do with the iPhone then that is this

00:19:11 ◼   ► is the best way of doing it.

00:19:13 ◼   ► Yeah, I think so.

00:19:15 ◼   ► But I do wish--

00:19:16 ◼   ► and again, who knows which of these are fake

00:19:19 ◼   ► and which are real.

00:19:19 ◼   ► Maybe they're all fake.

00:19:20 ◼   ► But still, if I had my wish, my wish

00:19:23 ◼   ► would be that they would just go completely wireless

00:19:26 ◼   ► and just say every single iPhone 7 comes with AirPods.

00:19:29 ◼   ► And if you really still want to use wired ones,

00:19:30 ◼   ► you have to buy this $20 or $19 adapter.

00:19:34 ◼   ► I really think that they should do that.

00:19:36 ◼   ► But it sounds like from these rumors

00:19:39 ◼   ► that they're going to make it an upsell.

00:19:41 ◼   ► I think they need to hedge a little bit because there's

00:19:43 ◼   ► no amount of Q&A or savvy even within Apple

00:19:46 ◼   ► that can equal millions of people hitting that product.

00:19:49 ◼   ► And if it's a first generation and they go all in on wireless

00:19:52 ◼   ► and there's anything wrong, they'll

00:19:54 ◼   ► just be hammered beyond hammered.

00:19:55 ◼   ► So if they make it one of those things,

00:19:57 ◼   ► again, like the 12-inch MacBook, where people go out and buy it,

00:20:01 ◼   ► it's a bit of a premium product and it's

00:20:02 ◼   ► a self-selecting group.

00:20:04 ◼   ► And they have a higher tolerance.

00:20:05 ◼   ► They are early adopters.

00:20:06 ◼   ► And they're willing to sort of struggle

00:20:08 ◼   ► with the technology at first.

00:20:09 ◼   ► Apple can use the first generation as an experiment

00:20:12 ◼   ► and then realize then the next generation is

00:20:13 ◼   ► where they make that extra leap forward

00:20:16 ◼   ► and start cutting off things in the past.

00:20:18 ◼   ► And I'm convinced, I am absolutely convinced

00:20:20 ◼   ► that it's the way of the future, wireless in general.

00:20:24 ◼   ► And I don't know, who knows what the details will be on these AirPods,

00:20:27 ◼   ► how standard they will be in terms of their Bluetooth,

00:20:29 ◼   ► and how much is proprietary.

00:20:32 ◼   ► Will you be able to use the Apple AirBuds with other devices that

00:20:37 ◼   ► use Bluetooth headphones?

00:20:39 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:20:40 ◼   ► - 'Cause Bluetooth is not great technology,

00:20:42 ◼   ► it never has been.

00:20:43 ◼   ► It doesn't like water,

00:20:44 ◼   ► and we're human beings filled with water.

00:20:45 ◼   ► So they use it for the watch,

00:20:47 ◼   ► and the watch sometimes doesn't always have

00:20:49 ◼   ► the best connection with Bluetooth.

00:20:51 ◼   ► And it would be great if Apple did have,

00:20:52 ◼   ► I mean the best of both worlds would be

00:20:54 ◼   ► a much better proprietary connection

00:20:56 ◼   ► that failed down to Bluetooth if it couldn't,

00:20:59 ◼   ► for other devices,

00:21:00 ◼   ► or if it couldn't make its own connection.

00:21:01 ◼   ► - Right, but just use some secret sauce,

00:21:03 ◼   ► and cheat if they need to.

00:21:05 ◼   ► And cheat meaning,

00:21:06 ◼   ► hey, this isn't really as per the Bluetooth spec,

00:21:08 ◼   ► but if we do it this way, it'll work better.

00:21:13 ◼   ► Yeah, absolutely.

00:21:14 ◼   ► Do whatever it takes to make it work well.

00:21:16 ◼   ► Worry about how well it works.

00:21:17 ◼   ► Don't worry about whether you're completely

00:21:19 ◼   ► compliant with Bluetooth 5.0 spec by the letter.

00:21:24 ◼   ► And the one thing I like is that Apple has always

00:21:26 ◼   ► been a company that doesn't worry about chipsets,

00:21:28 ◼   ► but worries about feature sets.

00:21:29 ◼   ► And it goes all the way back to that Steve Jobs statement,

00:21:32 ◼   ► where it's not like they have all these wireless chips

00:21:33 ◼   ► and they're just looking for features to put them into.

00:21:35 ◼   ► They really want to do something,

00:21:37 ◼   ► and they find the technology that can let them do it.

00:21:39 ◼   ► Because there's very few rumors of wireless charging,

00:21:41 ◼   ► for example.

00:21:42 ◼   ► So you're still going to have to have some form of cable.

00:21:45 ◼   ► And maybe they could charge through a metal casing,

00:21:47 ◼   ► because there's been patents on that,

00:21:48 ◼   ► I think, going back 18 months now.

00:21:50 ◼   ► But they've said before that they

00:21:51 ◼   ► don't think that's a great technology in terms of power

00:21:54 ◼   ► efficiency right now.

00:21:55 ◼   ► So they're not just transitioning

00:21:57 ◼   ► to wireless for wireless sake.

00:21:58 ◼   ► It's something that they think we're on the cusp of,

00:22:00 ◼   ► and they want to help push over.

00:22:01 ◼   ► And that is, to me, one of the most

00:22:03 ◼   ► serious practical considerations of this,

00:22:06 ◼   ► the pain involved in moving away from this ubiquitous

00:22:08 ◼   ► standard 3.5 millimeter jack to something else,

00:22:11 ◼   ► is the scenario where you want to charge while you listen.

00:22:15 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:22:16 ◼   ► - And it sounds to me like,

00:22:19 ◼   ► that there's not going to be any kind of pass-through option

00:22:23 ◼   ► for lightning, that if you're using the lightning headphones

00:22:26 ◼   ► you're not gonna be able to charge while you listen.

00:22:28 ◼   ► And so if you want to be able to charge while you listen,

00:22:30 ◼   ► you should get on board and get some wireless headphones.

00:22:32 ◼   ► - Yeah, and then it brings you,

00:22:33 ◼   ► my colleague Daniel Bader, he has both the Motorola

00:22:36 ◼   ► and the, I think it's called Brazi,

00:22:38 ◼   ► whatever the Kickstarter was for the wireless air pods

00:22:41 ◼   ► that sound very similar to what Apple's

00:22:43 ◼   ► gonna be releasing.

00:22:44 ◼   ► He still says he can't make it through

00:22:45 ◼   ► a transcontinental flight.

00:22:47 ◼   ► Like he can't fly from Toronto to San Francisco

00:22:49 ◼   ► on a charge with those.

00:22:50 ◼   ► - Wow, that's pretty bad.

00:22:52 ◼   ► - Yeah. (laughs)

00:22:53 ◼   ► - My Beats ones have, I think I could easily make it

00:22:56 ◼   ► through a transcontinental flight,

00:22:57 ◼   ► but that's probably about pushing the limits.

00:22:59 ◼   ► - Well yeah, and those are also, I think,

00:23:00 ◼   ► if they're the same ones I have,

00:23:01 ◼   ► they wrap around and I think these are supposed to be

00:23:03 ◼   ► two independent ones that charge through the case

00:23:05 ◼   ► so it's unknown how efficient those power cells are.

00:23:09 ◼   ► - Right, mine are exactly what you said, they wrap around.

00:23:13 ◼   ► - It's gonna be interesting.

00:23:15 ◼   ► - What else on the iPhone?

00:23:18 ◼   ► So the other one, we can skip right ahead

00:23:20 ◼   ► to the Ming-Chi-Kuo thing, which is confusing as hell to me,

00:23:25 ◼   ► honestly, this aspect of it, which is that he says

00:23:28 ◼   ► they're gonna get rid of space gray

00:23:31 ◼   ► and they're gonna ship two blacks, like a matte black

00:23:34 ◼   ► and what he's calling a piano black.

00:23:37 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:23:38 ◼   ► - Which is like a, well, you can imagine,

00:23:40 ◼   ► almost like a dress shoe glossy black.

00:23:43 ◼   ► - Like the steel Apple Watch black.

00:23:45 ◼   ► - That makes no sense to me.

00:23:46 ◼   ► It makes no sense at all to me

00:23:47 ◼   ► that they would ship two blacks.

00:23:50 ◼   ► 'Cause it just doesn't sound Appley at all.

00:23:53 ◼   ► I can see shipping a gray and a black.

00:23:57 ◼   ► I could see shipping gold and rose gold, right?

00:24:01 ◼   ► Because gold and rose gold are two different colors,

00:24:03 ◼   ► whereas black is black.

00:24:05 ◼   ► And based on the finish, it seems very strange.

00:24:09 ◼   ► And I know that when you go to buy a car,

00:24:12 ◼   ► if you go to buy a BMW, you can get black, and it costs x.

00:24:16 ◼   ► But if you want to get the nice black,

00:24:18 ◼   ► it costs an extra couple thousand dollars.

00:24:23 ◼   ► It's an upsell.

00:24:24 ◼   ► Whereas I can't see them doing an upsell

00:24:26 ◼   ► on the finish of black.

00:24:28 ◼   ► - No, I mean the iPhone 3G, I think,

00:24:31 ◼   ► you could only get the white plastic

00:24:33 ◼   ► if you got the, back then, the 32 gigabyte model.

00:24:36 ◼   ► It was only at the top end of the chain,

00:24:38 ◼   ► but since then, they've been very egalitarian

00:24:40 ◼   ► with their colors.

00:24:41 ◼   ► And I know when they did the iPhone 5,

00:24:43 ◼   ► the space black back then, it was really,

00:24:45 ◼   ► it's the hardest color to anodize.

00:24:46 ◼   ► Gold is the easiest and black is the hardest,

00:24:48 ◼   ► and it chips, and well, we saw what happened

00:24:51 ◼   ► with all the iPhone 5s, so they went to space gray

00:24:52 ◼   ► 'cause it let them do a thinner coating

00:24:54 ◼   ► and a much more resilient finish.

00:24:56 ◼   ► The Apple watch is a darker version of space gray

00:24:59 ◼   ► But it's still space gray and they might have they might be trying some new finish that actually lets them go to a glossy piano

00:25:04 ◼   ► Black it'll be interesting to see how how well it holds up and just how many units they manage to ship with it

00:25:09 ◼   ► yeah, it just seems strange to me that they would

00:25:11 ◼   ► that they would have dark black and

00:25:14 ◼   ► Last month's rumor was with space blue. So

00:25:17 ◼   ► And this is corroborated. There's the Japanese site Mac Naka Takara

00:25:23 ◼   ► Which has always been a pretty, you know, pretty good track record of getting some scoops

00:25:28 ◼   ► They have the had a picture of the SIM trays and there indeed there's like a matte black one and a shiny black one

00:25:35 ◼   ► And you never know which ones are prototyping which ones they're shipping or which quantities are doing each in

00:25:39 ◼   ► it seems they seem to really like when they don't do radical design differences they do a color difference and

00:25:46 ◼   ► Because people are superficial that's just as exciting to us as a new design like gold was for the 5s and rose gold was for

00:25:53 ◼   ► the 6s and if this isn't going to be a big tick here then just adding a new

00:25:57 ◼   ► color for the talk will get a lot of people excited anyway yeah I have to say

00:26:01 ◼   ► I've never I've space gray I mean I'm always I always get the black face I

00:26:06 ◼   ► don't ever want to have an iPhone with a white front so I always get the black

00:26:10 ◼   ► face and so I haven't had a choice in recent years it's always space gray I

00:26:14 ◼   ► like the blacker ones better I liked like the I think it was the first iPhone

00:26:18 ◼   ► 5 mm-hmm even though it wore at the edges but I thought that was a good look

00:26:22 ◼   ► I thought it looked good, you know, as the bevels faded, you know, or chipped away.

00:26:27 ◼   ► Yeah, I had mine re-anodized in three layers, like military spec. It was just black on black, like totally blacked out and it looked great.

00:26:35 ◼   ► Yeah, didn't you get yours like, but you got it changed to like blue or something, right?

00:26:40 ◼   ► No, a couple people got different colors. They didn't want to do pure black because it is so hard.

00:26:45 ◼   ► So I just said, you know, if I send you an iPhone, you can use me as a beta tester.

00:26:48 ◼   ► And they sent it back and I still have it. It still looks great.

00:26:51 ◼   ► Didn't Whiskus? Whiskus went blue, I think.

00:26:53 ◼   ► I think so, yeah, and I know Dieter Bowen went orange, and there was a couple other people who got them done.

00:26:57 ◼   ► Yeah. So we shall see. I don't know. It seems crazy to me.

00:27:03 ◼   ► I am a little surprised. I know, yeah, last month there were rumors of a blue one. Who knows where the hell that came from.

00:27:10 ◼   ► But that was one of the things I've been wondering about all summer as the drumbeat of, hey,

00:27:16 ◼   ► basically this looks a lot like the iPhone

00:27:19 ◼   ► 6 and 6s, but with better, you know,

00:27:23 ◼   ► the biggest cosmetic improvement from what we've seen is the better antenna lines, that the antenna lines are more

00:27:30 ◼   ► placed around corners rather than right across the back.

00:27:33 ◼   ► But at a glance, the fundamental shape of the thing is pretty much the same.

00:27:37 ◼   ► So I've always I've wondered all summer will they you know intro like you said introduce new colors

00:27:43 ◼   ► Which is well probably one of the easiest things they could do

00:27:45 ◼   ► just new Anna does anodized colors just to

00:27:49 ◼   ► Again, just to get the word new in people's mouths to show off

00:27:53 ◼   ► They have the new one it'd be easy to see it a glance that you have the new one hot new right on

00:27:56 ◼   ► But it seems like no other at least on the the silver

00:28:03 ◼   ► Gold rose gold front no, but they could play put black faces on the gold and rose gold and sell a ton more phones, too

00:28:09 ◼   ► I've I've said that for years that I thought that I still probably wouldn't buy one, but I think it would be a great look yeah

00:28:16 ◼   ► We shall see

00:28:20 ◼   ► All right, what about this one I got the pencil in there

00:28:24 ◼   ► Do you think the pencil Apple pencil is gonna work with the iPhone 7?

00:28:27 ◼   ► So it's a very different technology the the 3d touch uses

00:28:33 ◼   ► the distortion of the LED light to measure the distance.

00:28:37 ◼   ► And then it sort of translates that

00:28:39 ◼   ► into pressure sensitivity, where the Apple Pencil

00:28:41 ◼   ► has a much higher screen refresh rate,

00:28:44 ◼   ► and just a far more sensors, and it has a bunch

00:28:46 ◼   ► of technology in the Pencil that determines that.

00:28:49 ◼   ► And whether they can put both those things together,

00:28:51 ◼   ► I don't know what the engineering, I mean, I would love it.

00:28:53 ◼   ► I would love to have an iPhone with Pencil.

00:28:55 ◼   ► It would be like, you know, field notes

00:28:57 ◼   ► that syncs to Dropbox.

00:28:59 ◼   ► It would be terrific, I just don't know

00:29:00 ◼   ► if this generation's technology is there.

00:29:02 ◼   ► I could see it, I could see that,

00:29:04 ◼   ► and I know that the longest running,

00:29:07 ◼   ► and again, none of these things are fact,

00:29:10 ◼   ► maybe we'll be surprised on all of them,

00:29:11 ◼   ► but one of the strongest rumors all year long

00:29:13 ◼   ► has been that the 5.5 inch plus sized phone

00:29:18 ◼   ► is gonna get the two camera system,

00:29:21 ◼   ► and the regular sized 4.7 inch phone is not.

00:29:26 ◼   ► So that's a big, big difference.

00:29:30 ◼   ► Actually, we should probably hold that for all segment.

00:29:32 ◼   ► Sure.

00:29:33 ◼   ► Because to me, the headphone jack

00:29:36 ◼   ► is overshadowing the fact that the camera thing, I think,

00:29:40 ◼   ► is bigger news technically.

00:29:42 ◼   ► Absolutely.

00:29:42 ◼   ► And bigger news historically.

00:29:45 ◼   ► But given that they're already putting

00:29:47 ◼   ► a pretty significant difference between the two sizes,

00:29:50 ◼   ► I could see pencil support only being in the 5

00:29:53 ◼   ► and not being in the 4.7.

00:29:55 ◼   ► And it makes a little bit more sense, because it is more

00:29:58 ◼   ► of that, like, is it a big phone or is it

00:30:01 ◼   ► tiny tablet sort of size.

00:30:03 ◼   ► Yeah, and going back, and I know we'll probably talk about that later too, but with the Galaxy

00:30:07 ◼   ► Note, that was always the biggest redeeming quality for me, was it was the world's smallest

00:30:12 ◼   ► portable Wacom tablet.

00:30:13 ◼   ► You could just hold it in your hand and have everything you could have in a Wacom tablet,

00:30:16 ◼   ► and that's hugely advantageous to people in real estate and people in technical support

00:30:20 ◼   ► and in all sorts of industries, and even just people who like to draw, and would love to

00:30:24 ◼   ► have it without having, and I know it's not hard to carry an iPad around with you, but

00:30:27 ◼   ► without having to carry an iPad around with you.

00:30:29 ◼   ► Right.

00:30:30 ◼   ► So I don't know, I could see that happening.

00:30:31 ◼   ► I linked to it the other day and it was an interview with Tim Cook back in May that I didn't cross my radar until

00:30:37 ◼   ► just the other day, but

00:30:40 ◼   ► He was in India and he was interviewed on India's NDTV and I asked him a question about

00:30:46 ◼   ► Steve Jobs saying you guys just introduced this pencil, but Steve Jobs said if you see a stylus they blew it, you know

00:30:54 ◼   ► Was out on your mind and Tim Cook says well

00:30:58 ◼   ► We launched a pencil, not a stylus, first of all.

00:31:01 ◼   ► And there's a big difference, which I love.

00:31:04 ◼   ► I love the answer that there's a big difference,

00:31:06 ◼   ► just because they call it a pencil.

00:31:07 ◼   ► And the things that people are doing with this pencil,

00:31:10 ◼   ► I think Steve would have loved.

00:31:12 ◼   ► He loves to help people create.

00:31:14 ◼   ► And if you've ever seen what can be created

00:31:16 ◼   ► on an iPhone or an iPad with that pencil,

00:31:19 ◼   ► it's really unbelievable.

00:31:20 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:31:22 ◼   ► Now, it was obviously a verbal interview.

00:31:25 ◼   ► There is no comma after iPhone in this transcript of it.

00:31:29 ◼   ► But some of the--

00:31:30 ◼   ► I said either way he misspoke.

00:31:32 ◼   ► Either he momentarily forgot that the pencil doesn't

00:31:35 ◼   ► work with iPhone, or he forgot that it only

00:31:40 ◼   ► works with the upcoming iPhone, and mistakenly slipped

00:31:45 ◼   ► and suggested that that's forthcoming.

00:31:47 ◼   ► That either way he misspoke.

00:31:49 ◼   ► A couple of readers have pointed out

00:31:51 ◼   ► that you could parse this as meaning just that people--

00:31:54 ◼   ► what can be created on an iPhone, comma,

00:31:58 ◼   ► or an iPad with that pencil is really unbelievable.

00:32:02 ◼   ► If you pause in a certain way, you're

00:32:04 ◼   ► not saying that you can use the pencil

00:32:06 ◼   ► with the iPhone and the iPad.

00:32:07 ◼   ► You're saying you could do creative stuff with an iPhone,

00:32:11 ◼   ► and you could do creative stuff on the iPad with the pencil.

00:32:14 ◼   ► So that's possible.

00:32:15 ◼   ► But given that the question was specifically

00:32:18 ◼   ► about the pencil and the Steve Jobs line

00:32:22 ◼   ► about if you see a stylus, they blew it,

00:32:23 ◼   ► that argument doesn't hold water with me.

00:32:28 ◼   ► - Absolutely, and I think, again,

00:32:29 ◼   ► people love to misinterpret Steve Jobs,

00:32:31 ◼   ► and I think what he was trying to say there

00:32:32 ◼   ► is that if it requires it,

00:32:34 ◼   ► 'cause he had those terrible resistive screens,

00:32:36 ◼   ► and a stylus was really one of the only ways

00:32:38 ◼   ► to be functional with those,

00:32:39 ◼   ► and so this is a completely different discussion.

00:32:41 ◼   ► But Apple seldom, and it's not efficient,

00:32:44 ◼   ► Apple seldom makes a technology

00:32:46 ◼   ► that it only intends for one thing.

00:32:47 ◼   ► Most of their technologies, like the Force Touch,

00:32:51 ◼   ► like 3D Touch, I think we're going to see the True Tone

00:32:55 ◼   ► and the DCI-P3 displays, all of that stuff ends up going

00:32:59 ◼   ► across their entire product line because it makes their products work better and

00:33:03 ◼   ► it's just a more efficient use of the technology that they create. They just have to pick one that goes first.

00:33:07 ◼   ► Yes. Right. Yeah, I have always thought that that

00:33:11 ◼   ► if you see a stylus, they blew it. People really wag that

00:33:15 ◼   ► one around as an example of things Steve Jobs said that Apple

00:33:19 ◼   ► you know, either wouldn't have done if he was still here,

00:33:22 ◼   ► or ways that Steve Jobs was wrong, or whatever,

00:33:25 ◼   ► however you want to put it.

00:33:27 ◼   ► And I've always thought that was erroneous,

00:33:28 ◼   ► because I've always, I always took that answer,

00:33:31 ◼   ► and I forget the context of the question.

00:33:33 ◼   ► I think it was, but--

00:33:34 ◼   ► - I think it was the introduction

00:33:35 ◼   ► in the first iPhone keynote.

00:33:37 ◼   ► - But whatever it was, it was exactly what you said,

00:33:40 ◼   ► where the gist of it is,

00:33:43 ◼   ► he was talking about like the PalmPilot type devices,

00:33:46 ◼   ► or even the Newton, you know, to just name,

00:33:49 ◼   ► throw one of Apple's products back at it.

00:33:51 ◼   ► Devices where you had to use the stylus,

00:33:53 ◼   ► not devices where you could.

00:33:54 ◼   ► And I think one of the ways that he would certainly know

00:33:59 ◼   ► that is he certainly knew how popular

00:34:02 ◼   ► like the Cintiq tablets are at Pixar

00:34:06 ◼   ► and probably in certain departments with an Apple too.

00:34:09 ◼   ► But he certainly knows that there's new well

00:34:12 ◼   ► that firsthand that there's a place for a stylus

00:34:15 ◼   ► as an optional input device.

00:34:17 ◼   ► Yeah, there's a huge difference between something being required

00:34:19 ◼   ► for the usage of your product and something adding value

00:34:22 ◼   ► to the usage of your product.

00:34:23 ◼   ► And he didn't live in a time where there was that pencil

00:34:25 ◼   ► and could have been flabbergasted and delighted

00:34:27 ◼   ► by how well the pencil worked.

00:34:29 ◼   ► Didn't he also-- I thought, did he--

00:34:31 ◼   ► I know he bad-mouthed small tablets, too.

00:34:34 ◼   ► Yes, you had to shave your fingers

00:34:35 ◼   ► or whittle your fingers down.

00:34:36 ◼   ► Right, and he was specifically talking about tablets

00:34:39 ◼   ► where the user interface was shrunk down

00:34:41 ◼   ► from a certain size.

00:34:44 ◼   ► Whereas when Apple shrunk down the iPad Mini,

00:34:46 ◼   ► they kept the touch targets at exactly the same

00:34:49 ◼   ► physical dimensions as they are.

00:34:51 ◼   ► They're smaller than on the bigger iPad,

00:34:53 ◼   ► but they're actually exactly the same

00:34:55 ◼   ► pixels per inch as the iPhone.

00:34:57 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think it's super interesting.

00:34:59 ◼   ► One of my favorite things about Steve Jobs

00:35:00 ◼   ► is always that iTunes story where he just

00:35:02 ◼   ► did not want iTunes on Windows,

00:35:03 ◼   ► but he was smart enough to know

00:35:04 ◼   ► that he didn't have all the answers,

00:35:06 ◼   ► and he's basically, you know, fine, fine Phil, fine Eddie,

00:35:09 ◼   ► you know, go do it, but if you screw up, you're dead to me.

00:35:11 ◼   ► And they went and did it and it was successful.

00:35:13 ◼   ► And my understanding is that originally

00:35:15 ◼   ► they were going to have a blown up interface on

00:35:17 ◼   ► the iPad and he got fought tooth and nail over it.

00:35:19 ◼   ► And they actually had time to make a two column

00:35:21 ◼   ► interface. And then he got turned around.

00:35:23 ◼   ► Eddie Q read an article and brought it to Steve

00:35:26 ◼   ► and bought one of the tablets and said, we

00:35:27 ◼   ► really should do this. This is going to be a

00:35:28 ◼   ► category. And again, he was resistant to it, but

00:35:31 ◼   ► he was smart enough to know that he didn't have

00:35:32 ◼   ► all the answers and he hired good people and he

00:35:34 ◼   ► trusted them. And they had, that team had to turn

00:35:36 ◼   ► around the iPad mini, I think was the fastest

00:35:38 ◼   ► product turnaround they ever did. And they were

00:35:40 ◼   ► lucky that they could shrink it down. And it just,

00:35:43 ◼   ► it happened to work perfectly because the size

00:35:45 ◼   ► matched what the DPI was on the iPhone,

00:35:48 ◼   ► I think they would have had a huge problem

00:35:49 ◼   ► if that hadn't worked out for them.

00:35:51 ◼   ► - Right, and the quote that he had

00:35:53 ◼   ► where he was clearly wrong,

00:35:55 ◼   ► I mean, approvably wrong in hindsight,

00:35:58 ◼   ► and nobody ever throws it out at Apple,

00:36:00 ◼   ► and it's bizarre because this is one

00:36:01 ◼   ► where he was absolutely wrong,

00:36:03 ◼   ► was that the Intenagate question and answer thing,

00:36:07 ◼   ► after the Intenagate press conference,

00:36:09 ◼   ► and they had the question and answer thing,

00:36:13 ◼   ► Here's a quote here where he was talking about some of the bigger phones that were coming out from like Samsung Galaxy

00:36:18 ◼   ► and you know the the five-inch phones and he said

00:36:21 ◼   ► No, one's gonna buy a bigger phone. That's so big. You can't get your hands around it

00:36:26 ◼   ► No one's gonna buy that no one's gonna watch video on an iPod, right?

00:36:30 ◼   ► I mean there's a few

00:36:31 ◼   ► I think a lot of times where no one reads books anymore and then he comes out with iBooks is that he wasn't afraid to

00:36:36 ◼   ► Change his mind when he was presented with a better argument and they had uh, I forget if it was iPhone 4, iPhone 4s

00:36:42 ◼   ► But they had a large screen in that generation

00:36:44 ◼   ► But if you ever if you go back and feel how heavy your iPhone 4 and 4s is and how heavy that would have been

00:36:50 ◼   ► And the display technology, I mean anyone who had an HTC Thunderbolt back then that that thing sucked the battery lasted about three hours

00:36:56 ◼   ► The early Samsung's they use that pen tile display technology

00:37:00 ◼   ► Which was terrible and they they were willing to make these concessions in order to have those big hot

00:37:04 ◼   ► LTE radios they had to make the phone bigger and then they might as well put a bigger screen on but you didn't have good screen

00:37:09 ◼   ► technology, so you had to go OLED and use Pentile,

00:37:12 ◼   ► and all these cascading ramifications

00:37:14 ◼   ► of those decisions.

00:37:15 ◼   ► And they were willing to suck it up and make

00:37:17 ◼   ► endless variations of the same phone,

00:37:19 ◼   ► where Apple's stuck to making one phone a year for a very

00:37:21 ◼   ► long time.

00:37:22 ◼   ► He even called the bigger phones hummers.

00:37:24 ◼   ► [LAUGHTER]

00:37:27 ◼   ► I miss that guy.

00:37:28 ◼   ► The shorter, bigger phones.

00:37:29 ◼   ► Yeah, perfect.

00:37:31 ◼   ► So yeah, there is sort of an argument

00:37:33 ◼   ► to be made that I think in 2010, the battery life

00:37:36 ◼   ► wasn't there to do it.

00:37:37 ◼   ► But I do think, though, the proof shows that I think Apple

00:37:40 ◼   ► institutionally was caught a little flat-footed

00:37:43 ◼   ► at the popularity of the bigger size phones.

00:37:45 ◼   ► And the iPhone, the plus-size iPhone models were,

00:37:49 ◼   ► by all accounts, a little bit late to market.

00:37:52 ◼   ► I think it's, you know, it took everybody by surprise.

00:37:56 ◼   ► - Yeah, and I still, I think to them,

00:37:59 ◼   ► that's just adding addressable markets.

00:38:00 ◼   ► Like, they saturated AT&T, then they went to Verizon,

00:38:02 ◼   ► they saturated North America and Europe,

00:38:04 ◼   ► and they went to China Mobile.

00:38:05 ◼   ► They saturated the under four-inch displays,

00:38:07 ◼   ► they went to 4.5 and 5.5 and they do it very progressively

00:38:11 ◼   ► and they had their TikTok cycle and it just landed.

00:38:14 ◼   ► iPhone 6 was the most convenient time

00:38:16 ◼   ► and had the best technology for them to do it.

00:38:18 ◼   ► And they've waited, they've happily waited,

00:38:20 ◼   ► even when it's hurt them to do what they think

00:38:22 ◼   ► is right technologically.

00:38:24 ◼   ► - Yeah, definitely, absolutely.

00:38:27 ◼   ► So what do you think?

00:38:30 ◼   ► You think they're gonna do two shades of black?

00:38:32 ◼   ► - I usually dismiss this kind of stuff.

00:38:35 ◼   ► And then, I knew early on they were gonna do the gold

00:38:38 ◼   ► because they were calling it Kardashian,

00:38:40 ◼   ► which to me was endlessly hilarious.

00:38:42 ◼   ► And then the rose gold, it just seemed inevitable

00:38:44 ◼   ► based on them already shipping a watch that had that color.

00:38:47 ◼   ► But the space black Apple Watch,

00:38:50 ◼   ► a lot of people really love that.

00:38:51 ◼   ► Both you and I have it and it's a great look.

00:38:53 ◼   ► And I've joked that I really would love

00:38:55 ◼   ► a space black iPhone, so I have no one to blame

00:38:58 ◼   ► but myself if I get one.

00:39:00 ◼   ► - Right, yeah, I wonder if that's the precedent.

00:39:03 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:39:04 ◼   ► - Did you go space gray or piano black, John?

00:39:07 ◼   ► - Off the top of my head, I guess the piano.

00:39:11 ◼   ► I guess I'd get that glossy finish, I don't know.

00:39:13 ◼   ► I mean, I do have the, you and I both have the luxury

00:39:16 ◼   ► of we'll get to look at them firsthand

00:39:18 ◼   ► in the hands-on area after the event

00:39:21 ◼   ► before we make the decision.

00:39:22 ◼   ► You don't have to judge,

00:39:23 ◼   ► 'cause judging like a finish is the hardest thing to do,

00:39:27 ◼   ► not looking at the actual device,

00:39:29 ◼   ► because the product photography

00:39:30 ◼   ► makes everything look great, right?

00:39:33 ◼   ► I mean, it's not like they're gonna show you a product shot

00:39:36 ◼   ► of the flat black that makes it look bad.

00:39:40 ◼   ► It's all gonna look great, but you can't really tell

00:39:42 ◼   ► how they compare to each other unless you see 'em

00:39:45 ◼   ► first-hand, in my opinion.

00:39:46 ◼   ► - Yeah, and I don't think they could do a stainless steel

00:39:47 ◼   ► phone with a DLC coating, which is one of the biggest

00:39:49 ◼   ► advantages of that color in my opinion.

00:39:51 ◼   ► - Right.

00:39:52 ◼   ► So we'll see, I don't know.

00:39:54 ◼   ► I don't know what to think about that.

00:39:55 ◼   ► It just seems very strange to me.

00:39:57 ◼   ► The other thought that occurred to me is that maybe

00:39:59 ◼   ► that the one that they're calling flat black

00:40:01 ◼   ► or regular black, might just be the new Space Gray.

00:40:04 ◼   ► And then at least product marketing-wise,

00:40:07 ◼   ► or if they give it a new name, a new gray,

00:40:11 ◼   ► but call it gray, and then all of a sudden,

00:40:13 ◼   ► instead of two blacks, you've got gray and black.

00:40:16 ◼   ► - Well, I think it will be, again,

00:40:17 ◼   ► because it is just so hard to anodize black,

00:40:19 ◼   ► it'll be Space Gray, but it'll be closer

00:40:21 ◼   ► to what the Apple Watch Space Gray is

00:40:22 ◼   ► than what the current iPhone Space Gray is.

00:40:24 ◼   ► - Right, right.

00:40:26 ◼   ► Well, we'll see.

00:40:28 ◼   ► I think that that wraps me up on iPhone stuff.

00:40:31 ◼   ► Is there anything else on iPhone you want to talk about?

00:40:33 ◼   ► - Just the camera.

00:40:34 ◼   ► - Oh, well let's hold that, let's hold that,

00:40:36 ◼   ► 'cause that's a big enough deal.

00:40:37 ◼   ► So let me take a break here and thank our first sponsor,

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00:42:48 ◼   ► and do it. All right, the camera. Let's talk about this camera.

00:42:53 ◼   ► Yes. I'm sick about it. Well, you've been talking about it for what, two years now?

00:42:58 ◼   ► Two years. Two years ago, I heard, but I didn't hear it two years ago. I didn't hear that they

00:43:03 ◼   ► were only going to put it in the Monster Fund. But I did hear, and it sounds like this is where

00:43:09 ◼   ► they're going. And I think the invitation—I'm not—I don't like to read too much into the titles

00:43:14 ◼   ► or the pictures on the invitation,

00:43:16 ◼   ► but the invitation this time so clearly

00:43:18 ◼   ► looks like a reference to what the camera terminology is,

00:43:23 ◼   ► bokeh, where it's the, it's a Japanese word

00:43:26 ◼   ► that means the visual quality of the out of focus

00:43:30 ◼   ► parts of a photograph.

00:43:34 ◼   ► So if you have a narrow depth of field on a photograph,

00:43:37 ◼   ► what's the blur, what does the blur look like

00:43:39 ◼   ► of the out of focus stuff?

00:43:40 ◼   ► and that's what the invitation to this event

00:43:44 ◼   ► looks like a reference to that

00:43:45 ◼   ► because it looks like very attractive out of focus,

00:43:49 ◼   ► I don't know, like lights or something like that.

00:43:52 ◼   ► - Yeah, and again, I think a lot of this

00:43:53 ◼   ► just goes down to Apple managing their costs.

00:43:56 ◼   ► It's the same thing, memory.

00:43:57 ◼   ► Memory's not $100 more expensive when you double it,

00:44:00 ◼   ► but that's just an easy thing for people to understand,

00:44:02 ◼   ► small, medium, and large.

00:44:03 ◼   ► And the camera module is gonna be more expensive,

00:44:05 ◼   ► so it's easier for them to eat the cost of that camera

00:44:08 ◼   ► if they put in the already $100 because it's bigger phone

00:44:11 ◼   ► than if they put it in both phones.

00:44:13 ◼   ► - Yep, and what I've heard two years ago,

00:44:16 ◼   ► and it sounds like exactly what they're shipping,

00:44:18 ◼   ► is it's effectively two cameras that act as a single unit

00:44:23 ◼   ► and through software create images.

00:44:27 ◼   ► So two cameras take pictures at different focal lengths.

00:44:30 ◼   ► One is wider ends angle, one is more telephoto.

00:44:34 ◼   ► And then in software, it just stitches the two images

00:44:37 ◼   ► the two cameras together to create one image.

00:44:40 ◼   ► And it might even have these light field type things

00:44:42 ◼   ► where after the fact you might be able to

00:44:45 ◼   ► change the depth of field or the focus point.

00:44:48 ◼   ► - It's interesting because when you hear two cameras,

00:44:49 ◼   ► a lot of companies have put two cameras on phones before

00:44:52 ◼   ► and some have done it where they have one regular camera

00:44:55 ◼   ► and then one black and white camera

00:44:57 ◼   ► because they want to pull more detail

00:44:59 ◼   ► in low light situations.

00:45:00 ◼   ► Some have a regular lens and a wide angle lens

00:45:02 ◼   ► but you have to actually shift between them

00:45:04 ◼   ► like with a toggle to choose which one

00:45:06 ◼   ► you're gonna use at any one time.

00:45:08 ◼   ► And others have tried to put the lenses further apart

00:45:10 ◼   ► to try to get more depth of field information

00:45:11 ◼   ► so they can sort of do that artificial,

00:45:14 ◼   ► or let you do dynamic focus with it

00:45:16 ◼   ► where you can pull the image back and forth

00:45:17 ◼   ► and show it differently.

00:45:18 ◼   ► And it sounds like this is a very Apple solution

00:45:20 ◼   ► where they're picking two really good cameras

00:45:23 ◼   ► and then not making you do a lot of work,

00:45:25 ◼   ► but using everything in that A10 chip

00:45:27 ◼   ► and the image signal processor

00:45:28 ◼   ► to sort of intelligently figure out

00:45:30 ◼   ► how to make a great image

00:45:31 ◼   ► and then give you some control over things

00:45:32 ◼   ► like depth of field and low light.

00:45:35 ◼   ► Yeah, and so, you know, I mean, again, this is a long-standing rumor, and the fact that—apparent

00:45:41 ◼   ► fact—that this new camera system is only going to ship on the plus-size model and not

00:45:45 ◼   ► the 4.7-inch model has been rumored all year.

00:45:50 ◼   ► And it's not flush. It's not flush at all.

00:45:53 ◼   ► No, neither is flush. The camera bump is still there. It is a slightly different shape. It

00:45:57 ◼   ► looks like it might be a little bit more graduated instead of just like a harsh, you know, like

00:46:04 ◼   ► like a more graduated bump than a--

00:46:05 ◼   ► - It's a hard problem to solve

00:46:07 ◼   ► because people don't want heavy phones

00:46:09 ◼   ► and to make phones lighter,

00:46:10 ◼   ► one of the ways you do that is to make them thinner,

00:46:12 ◼   ► but cameras really want a big Z-index.

00:46:14 ◼   ► They want depth and if you try to,

00:46:15 ◼   ► we've seen this with other manufacturers,

00:46:17 ◼   ► if you try to put a higher aperture

00:46:20 ◼   ► or you try to do other things with the camera,

00:46:22 ◼   ► it creates aberration because it just,

00:46:24 ◼   ► the lens is not good enough at that depth

00:46:26 ◼   ► to do everything that they want from it.

00:46:27 ◼   ► And Apple up until now has been really, really good

00:46:30 ◼   ► about hitting that sweet spot where the aperture

00:46:32 ◼   ► everything else about the camera comes together

00:46:34 ◼   ► to take those really good everyday photos.

00:46:37 ◼   ► There's no, the blacks aren't crushed,

00:46:38 ◼   ► the saturation's not boosted,

00:46:40 ◼   ► it just tries to reproduce what you see with your naked eye.

00:46:43 ◼   ► And they've been really, really good about it.

00:46:44 ◼   ► And I don't think they're gonna change that anytime soon,

00:46:46 ◼   ► 'cause that, whatever 300 person strong camera team,

00:46:48 ◼   ► all they do is shoot photos in a wide variety of situations,

00:46:52 ◼   ► trying to make sure that every photo you shoot at a bar,

00:46:54 ◼   ► you know, when your kids are out playing,

00:46:55 ◼   ► that under any circumstance,

00:46:57 ◼   ► you get the best photo you can.

00:46:59 ◼   ► I would love to know how much internal deliberation

00:47:02 ◼   ► there was over shipping.

00:47:04 ◼   ► I mean, 'cause once they broke the seal on it,

00:47:05 ◼   ► like with the iPhone 6 and the 6 Plus,

00:47:08 ◼   ► shipping the 6S and 6S Plus last year with the camera bump

00:47:12 ◼   ► was, you know, it was expected actually, right?

00:47:15 ◼   ► And that this one, the new iPhone 7

00:47:18 ◼   ► is still gonna have a bump.

00:47:19 ◼   ► It's, you know, it's old news now.

00:47:20 ◼   ► This is the third year in a row.

00:47:22 ◼   ► But with that first one, I would love to know

00:47:24 ◼   ► how much internal argument there was over,

00:47:27 ◼   ► we can ship, you know,

00:47:29 ◼   ► what was, and what was the bigger argument?

00:47:31 ◼   ► Was the bigger argument we should make the phone thicker

00:47:35 ◼   ► so that the camera fits flush,

00:47:36 ◼   ► or was the argument we should include a lesser camera

00:47:40 ◼   ► that would fit flush with this phone?

00:47:43 ◼   ► - Previous years, ID would just say,

00:47:46 ◼   ► you have to make the, we're making the phone this thick

00:47:48 ◼   ► and you have to fit that camera,

00:47:49 ◼   ► which is why, you know, people thought

00:47:51 ◼   ► that the iPhone camera didn't really improve that much,

00:47:53 ◼   ► but getting a camera is good, if not better,

00:47:55 ◼   ► in a previous generation, any thinner phone every year.

00:47:58 ◼   ► It was an absolute miracle of engineering.

00:48:00 ◼   ► But there's two situations where I think ID

00:48:03 ◼   ► gets pushed back on heavily, and that's antennas,

00:48:05 ◼   ► you know, reception and camera, because physics.

00:48:08 ◼   ► It's like that scene in Civil War where Spider-Man goes,

00:48:10 ◼   ► I just don't think that shield follows laws of physics.

00:48:12 ◼   ► And they have to, they have absolutely no choice,

00:48:15 ◼   ► and their choice is put a crappy camera,

00:48:17 ◼   ► which Apple's not gonna do,

00:48:18 ◼   ► because they're as much a camera company now

00:48:20 ◼   ► as they are a phone company, or live with a camera bump,

00:48:22 ◼   ► which might, I'm sure everyone in ID cringes

00:48:25 ◼   ► every time they think about it.

00:48:26 ◼   ► But it's how they get that great camera.

00:48:28 ◼   ► And the other practical factor-- it doesn't help me,

00:48:31 ◼   ► because I don't like using a case.

00:48:32 ◼   ► But overwhelming-- I would love to know the percentage.

00:48:36 ◼   ► I would love to know what percentage of iPhone users

00:48:39 ◼   ► put their phone in a case and keep it in a case

00:48:41 ◼   ► almost all the time.

00:48:42 ◼   ► Because I would-- off the top of my head,

00:48:44 ◼   ► I'm thinking it's at least 80%.

00:48:47 ◼   ► I'm the only one I know who doesn't use a case.

00:48:49 ◼   ► It might be even higher.

00:48:51 ◼   ► 80% might even be ridiculously low.

00:48:53 ◼   ► And if you have a case, even the thinnest case I've ever seen,

00:48:57 ◼   ► like the ones that are just like polyurethane

00:48:59 ◼   ► and are almost more just like scratch guards

00:49:01 ◼   ► than any other kind of protection,

00:49:03 ◼   ► are still at the thickness of the camera bump.

00:49:07 ◼   ► So if you have a case, there is no camera bump.

00:49:09 ◼   ► Absolutely.

00:49:09 ◼   ► I mean, everybody in my family, every friend that I have,

00:49:11 ◼   ► every colleague that I have has their iPhone in the case.

00:49:13 ◼   ► I'm the only one walking around with it

00:49:15 ◼   ► the way Johnny I've intended.

00:49:16 ◼   ► Right.

00:49:16 ◼   ► It really might be.

00:49:17 ◼   ► I wouldn't be surprised if it's more like in the '90s, 90%.

00:49:22 ◼   ► And so I lose out, you lose out as no case users,

00:49:27 ◼   ► but people with a case, they get better image quality

00:49:31 ◼   ► and they don't even, I'm sure they don't even know

00:49:33 ◼   ► why we're going on and on for an entire segment about this.

00:49:35 ◼   ► - There's a bump on that, let me take out the case

00:49:37 ◼   ► for a minute, take a look, I forgot.

00:49:38 ◼   ► - I don't know what I'm gonna do, Rene.

00:49:43 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:49:44 ◼   ► - 'Cause you want that camera but you hate big phones.

00:49:46 ◼   ► - And I really, I mean, and I've even, you know,

00:49:50 ◼   ► I love the iPhone SE.

00:49:53 ◼   ► I mean, I didn't buy one, personally,

00:49:55 ◼   ► just because I knew that this--

00:49:58 ◼   ► it just didn't make sense to buy one for six months

00:50:01 ◼   ► when I just bought one.

00:50:02 ◼   ► I mean, I feel like buying a new iPhone every year

00:50:04 ◼   ► is already almost stupid.

00:50:09 ◼   ► I'm not going to buy two a year.

00:50:11 ◼   ► But boy, I sure like the way it feels in my hand.

00:50:13 ◼   ► I'm holding it in my hand right now.

00:50:14 ◼   ► I sure like the way it feels in my hand.

00:50:16 ◼   ► Yeah, and I think, again, this is just a transition period.

00:50:18 ◼   ► and whether it's next year or the year after,

00:50:20 ◼   ► there'll be an iPhone with as large a screen

00:50:22 ◼   ► and as good a camera as the current 6S7 is gonna be,

00:50:25 ◼   ► just in a casing as small as the SE.

00:50:28 ◼   ► - But my favorite thing, you know,

00:50:30 ◼   ► I'm an avid amateur photographer.

00:50:34 ◼   ► I care about the camera probably more than anything else

00:50:36 ◼   ► on the phone, so buying the 4.7 just because it feels better

00:50:41 ◼   ► in my hand and a lot better in my pocket,

00:50:43 ◼   ► but knowing that I don't have as good a camera

00:50:45 ◼   ► as I would otherwise is gonna hurt.

00:50:49 ◼   ► - So the 7 will replace your SE or your 6S

00:50:52 ◼   ► and then the 7 Plus will replace your Laika or your Canon

00:50:56 ◼   ► and you'll just carry the two phones.

00:50:57 ◼   ► - Right, I guess, I don't know.

00:50:58 ◼   ► I don't think it'll do that.

00:50:59 ◼   ► - 'Cause they're connected and they sync, so.

00:51:01 ◼   ► - (sighs) I don't know, I really don't.

00:51:04 ◼   ► I've been dreading this all, I mean,

00:51:06 ◼   ► I came to grips with it and I accept it

00:51:08 ◼   ► and there are so many rumors coming out of the supply chain

00:51:12 ◼   ► that showed pictures that only have the dual camera

00:51:14 ◼   ► the bigger one. So I'm braced for it, but now that it's here, it feels like, you know, all year long,

00:51:20 ◼   ► I've been saying that's a problem for September, Jon. Yeah, I'm summer Jon. Screw September,

00:51:26 ◼   ► Jon is his problem. What do you think? What do you think you're going to get? I've been using the

00:51:30 ◼   ► plus size now since it first came out. I have, you know, I buy both every year and I occasionally use

00:51:36 ◼   ► the smaller size, but I just, I work on my iPhone so much that the longer battery life and the

00:51:41 ◼   ► and the bigger screen size is a huge advantage to me.

00:51:43 ◼   ► And I've gotten to the point where,

00:51:45 ◼   ► not as well as Bullseye from Daredevil,

00:51:47 ◼   ► I can juggle that thing pretty well now.

00:51:48 ◼   ► So I kind of forget half the time how big it is

00:51:50 ◼   ► until I do pick up one of the smaller iPhones.

00:51:53 ◼   ► - So you're all set.

00:51:54 ◼   ► - I carry two iPhones now anyway,

00:51:55 ◼   ► 'cause I used to, I do a lot of pictures of iPhones,

00:51:58 ◼   ► 'cause it's just the job that I have,

00:51:59 ◼   ► and I used to have a regular camera to do that,

00:52:01 ◼   ► and now I just have the other iPhone

00:52:02 ◼   ► to take the pictures with.

00:52:03 ◼   ► - You have a day phone and a night phone.

00:52:07 ◼   ► I have a subject phone and a capture phone.

00:52:11 ◼   ► I make it so easy now because everything just sinks,

00:52:19 ◼   ► and it just works together.

00:52:20 ◼   ► So I can pull out the SE or the 6, take photos,

00:52:23 ◼   ► make a setup, take photos.

00:52:25 ◼   ► And then those are automatically everywhere

00:52:27 ◼   ► to put it away and go back to using it.

00:52:29 ◼   ► I am intrigued.

00:52:31 ◼   ► This is part of why I love the job that I have.

00:52:35 ◼   ► I am absolutely intrigued to see how Apple pitches this on stage because it, you know,

00:52:42 ◼   ► the previous difference between the two size iPhone 6 and the 6s was just the optical image

00:52:48 ◼   ► stabilization on the plus.

00:52:50 ◼   ► The plus for the last two years has had optical image stabilization with the iPhone 6.

00:52:55 ◼   ► It was for stills and then last year it was in for stills and video.

00:53:01 ◼   ► And that's no small thing.

00:53:02 ◼   ► Optical image stabilization is a real advantage.

00:53:05 ◼   ► It definitely means that the Plus had a at least slightly better camera than the regular

00:53:11 ◼   ► size.

00:53:12 ◼   ► But it was a small enough difference that I was easily willing to accept the size that

00:53:16 ◼   ► I found more palatable in my pocket and hand.

00:53:19 ◼   ► Whereas now, I think the difference is really, really significant.

00:53:24 ◼   ► And I kind of feel if the imaging is as good as I expect it to be, I think it's going to

00:53:31 ◼   ► It takes so much of the event time for the iPhone

00:53:35 ◼   ► that it's really going to, just the camera alone,

00:53:39 ◼   ► if there's no other advertised differences

00:53:41 ◼   ► between the two sizes, it's really gonna turn the event

00:53:43 ◼   ► into more of an iPhone 7 Plus event

00:53:45 ◼   ► than an iPhone 7 event.

00:53:47 ◼   ► - Absolutely, and I don't, you know,

00:53:48 ◼   ► I often joke that the people in graphic design,

00:53:51 ◼   ► all they're given is a spec, they don't have any,

00:53:52 ◼   ► they're not disclosed on the products,

00:53:54 ◼   ► they're just told to make an invitation,

00:53:55 ◼   ► but I think it's absolutely fitting

00:53:56 ◼   ► that this year the camera is the subject of the invitation,

00:54:00 ◼   ► I don't think that's an accident at all.

00:54:03 ◼   ► And one thing I have, I've heard sort of two sides to this,

00:54:07 ◼   ► I'm curious if you're hearing the same thing.

00:54:08 ◼   ► There's one side who said that Apple is absolutely shooting

00:54:11 ◼   ► for an SLR and they wanna make a camera

00:54:12 ◼   ► that's just way better than a smartphone camera before.

00:54:15 ◼   ► The other side is we really don't wanna raise expectations

00:54:18 ◼   ► because it's still a camera phone

00:54:20 ◼   ► and it doesn't have that huge piece of glass on it

00:54:23 ◼   ► and if we push too hard on it, it's like an SLR,

00:54:25 ◼   ► people are gonna see, well, you know,

00:54:26 ◼   ► it's not like my Canon with my 70 to 200 or whatever,

00:54:30 ◼   ► So that's a really careful balancing act to make people understand that it's a way better camera phone, but it's still a camera phone.

00:54:37 ◼   ► Yeah, I heard, the thing I heard was, when I originally heard about this dual camera thing two years ago was, I heard SLR, they're shooting for SLR quality.

00:54:48 ◼   ► And it still doesn't make any sense to me,

00:54:52 ◼   ► because no matter what you do,

00:54:53 ◼   ► what magic you can pull out of having two different lenses,

00:54:57 ◼   ► the sensor size is still so small,

00:55:00 ◼   ► compared to a 35 millimeter full frame DSLR.

00:55:04 ◼   ► Or even the APS-C, or the Micro Four Thirds,

00:55:08 ◼   ► the other various, you know, serious,

00:55:11 ◼   ► quote unquote serious camera sensors.

00:55:13 ◼   ► Those sensors are so much bigger

00:55:17 ◼   ► the tiny little sensor that they have to use in the phone because of the you know

00:55:22 ◼   ► just how small the camera you know the actual distance from the lens to the

00:55:25 ◼   ► sensor is that there's I just don't see it I don't see how that you know I think

00:55:30 ◼   ► that they can really emphasize that this is as good as a standalone point-and-

00:55:37 ◼   ► shoot camera but I don't see how they can start talking about SLRs yeah no I

00:55:42 ◼   ► agree it's gonna have to be like this is the best camera that you can get on a

00:55:46 ◼   ► a phone, but if they start saying it's going to replace your 5D mark or your

00:55:49 ◼   ► Sony A, whatever mark 2, it's gonna not work out so well.

00:55:52 ◼   ► Yeah, and I say SLR as a sort of catch-all phrase for any camera with a sensor big enough that

00:55:58 ◼   ► there are cameras for that sensor that have detachable lenses.

00:56:02 ◼   ► Yes.

00:56:02 ◼   ► Right? Let's just say the catch-all. I'm saying SLR, but what I really mean is anything where the

00:56:07 ◼   ► camera system has detachable lenses that you can, you know, choose which lens to

00:56:12 ◼   ► put on the camera. And that include, like I said, APS-C, micro four-thirds, the full

00:56:17 ◼   ► frame 35 millimeter size, any of those, lump them all together. I just don't see

00:56:22 ◼   ► how they can say that they can compete with that simply because of the physics

00:56:25 ◼   ► of sensor sizes. But in terms of the point-and-shoot cameras that people buy

00:56:31 ◼   ► that don't have detachable lenses, I think that they can absolutely say we're

00:56:35 ◼   ► as good or better because maybe what we lose on optics of the sensor size

00:56:41 ◼   ► and the lens size we're making up with software.

00:56:44 ◼   ► - Absolutely, and again, they've been very careful

00:56:47 ◼   ► so far to target, not professionals,

00:56:49 ◼   ► I mean they do show off what professionals

00:56:51 ◼   ► can do with it, but it's that everyday photo thing.

00:56:53 ◼   ► And they're also doing super interesting things

00:56:55 ◼   ► with the camera, they're gonna have that dual-lens system,

00:56:57 ◼   ► but they're also internally, they're gonna support RAW.

00:57:00 ◼   ► I think it's for third-party apps,

00:57:01 ◼   ► only it won't be in the camera app,

00:57:02 ◼   ► but they'll support RAW, they'll have that DCI-P3 display,

00:57:06 ◼   ► which is a high-color gamut display,

00:57:07 ◼   ► and the screens will be able to output that.

00:57:09 ◼   ► So you have everything from the capture pipeline to the display

00:57:12 ◼   ► and across other products, like the 9.7-inch iPad

00:57:15 ◼   ► Pro, the 27-inch iMac that can all display these images now.

00:57:19 ◼   ► And that is not something I think everyone

00:57:20 ◼   ► will appreciate immediately.

00:57:21 ◼   ► But I think once we start getting these things

00:57:23 ◼   ► in our hands, everyone who loves photography

00:57:25 ◼   ► is going to be just much more impressed with that phone

00:57:28 ◼   ► than they thought they would be.

00:57:29 ◼   ► Yeah, and the other thing we didn't even talk about,

00:57:30 ◼   ► but the other thing that I--

00:57:31 ◼   ► I'm not going to say it's a sure thing.

00:57:33 ◼   ► None of these things are sure things.

00:57:34 ◼   ► But it's as close to a sure thing--

00:57:35 ◼   ► I would bet on it-- is that it's, like you said,

00:57:38 ◼   ► is a DPIC--

00:57:40 ◼   ► DCIP-- DCIP.

00:57:41 ◼   ► DCIP3.

00:57:42 ◼   ► So it's the higher color gamut range.

00:57:46 ◼   ► So it displays way more color.

00:57:48 ◼   ► And you can definitely-- if you have the right image,

00:57:50 ◼   ► you can absolutely see the difference side by side.

00:57:53 ◼   ► Like you said, you're going to be

00:57:55 ◼   ► able to shoot those images from the camera, so you'll see it.

00:57:58 ◼   ► And then it's also going to surely support the--

00:58:01 ◼   ► not night shift.

00:58:05 ◼   ► What's the other one?

00:58:05 ◼   ► The True Tone.

00:58:06 ◼   ► True Tone.

00:58:07 ◼   ► true tone display where it changes that subtly changes

00:58:10 ◼   ► the color temperature of your display based on the ambient

00:58:12 ◼   ► light.

00:58:13 ◼   ► And I thought that was a giveaway.

00:58:14 ◼   ► I thought that uncharacteristically,

00:58:17 ◼   ► I thought Schiller gave up the bag on that

00:58:19 ◼   ► when he talked about it at the iPad 9.7, iPad Pro,

00:58:25 ◼   ► what do you call it, the baby iPad Pro.

00:58:28 ◼   ► And when he said specifically, once you get used to this,

00:58:31 ◼   ► you can't go back, which to me meant it's clearly coming

00:58:34 ◼   ► to the iPhone in six months.

00:58:36 ◼   ► And again, they don't hold back.

00:58:38 ◼   ► There was this rumor that Apple holds back tech.

00:58:41 ◼   ► As soon as they can ship something, they ship it,

00:58:43 ◼   ► which is why the Baby Pro got it,

00:58:44 ◼   ► and they didn't just hold and wait for the iPhone.

00:58:47 ◼   ► But again, that technology is gonna propagate

00:58:48 ◼   ► across their entire range.

00:58:50 ◼   ► And I think at WWDC, they said that not only

00:58:52 ◼   ► do they support DCI-P3, but they support

00:58:54 ◼   ► the upcoming standard, which has an even wider gamut,

00:58:56 ◼   ► which is 2020, and these are all cinematic standards,

00:58:59 ◼   ► is what we've been seeing in movie theaters

00:59:00 ◼   ► for a while now.

00:59:01 ◼   ► So they really care deeply about not just the photography,

00:59:04 ◼   ► but every aspect of the photography

00:59:06 ◼   ► along the entire blockchain.

00:59:08 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:59:09 ◼   ► So I think that's definitely coming.

00:59:12 ◼   ► Anything else on the iPhone?

00:59:15 ◼   ► - I mean, one of the other things

00:59:17 ◼   ► that people were getting upset about

00:59:18 ◼   ► was whether the speaker was real or not at the bottom.

00:59:20 ◼   ► That's replacing the headphone jack.

00:59:22 ◼   ► And there was one rumor,

00:59:23 ◼   ► I don't know if it was Ming-Chi Kuo or not,

00:59:24 ◼   ► that they're actually gonna upgrade the top speaker,

00:59:27 ◼   ► the earpiece for the phone,

00:59:28 ◼   ► so that when you hold it vertically,

00:59:30 ◼   ► 'cause one of the big things about the iPad Pro devices

00:59:32 ◼   ► that-- or I'm sorry, iPad Pro devices--

00:59:34 ◼   ► is that you have those four speakers.

00:59:36 ◼   ► So you can spin it any direction, any way you want.

00:59:38 ◼   ► And it's always fantastic stereo sound.

00:59:41 ◼   ► But with one speaker on one side,

00:59:42 ◼   ► either your hand covers it or it's only coming from one side.

00:59:45 ◼   ► So I think if they do have that balance where they can put

00:59:47 ◼   ► sound out of both ends of the device,

00:59:49 ◼   ► then it just makes a better experience.

00:59:51 ◼   ► Yeah, because that would actually give you more--

00:59:53 ◼   ► that would give you stereo when you actually want stereo,

00:59:55 ◼   ► which is when you're watching a video.

00:59:57 ◼   ► Whereas having two speakers on the right side

00:59:59 ◼   ► when you're watching video, it doesn't really--

01:00:01 ◼   ► It doesn't really do anything.

01:00:02 ◼   ► Yeah, it's better stereo in my right ear.

01:00:04 ◼   ► And they've had phones that do that.

01:00:06 ◼   ► They've had phones with fantastic speakers,

01:00:08 ◼   ► but both at the bottom of the display.

01:00:09 ◼   ► Right.

01:00:10 ◼   ► Is it awkward?

01:00:14 ◼   ► I wonder what the debate was inside about,

01:00:16 ◼   ► because the rumor is that the speaker

01:00:18 ◼   ► grills will be symmetric.

01:00:19 ◼   ► There will be symmetric speaker grills

01:00:21 ◼   ► on both sides of the lightning port,

01:00:22 ◼   ► but only one of them will actually be a speaker.

01:00:24 ◼   ► They used to.

01:00:25 ◼   ► Before they moved the headphone jack to the bottom,

01:00:27 ◼   ► when it was still at the top of the phone,

01:00:28 ◼   ► they had sort of the mic had that fake speaker

01:00:29 ◼   ► grill on top of it.

01:00:30 ◼   ► To me, it's like a return to the old days.

01:00:33 ◼   ► - Right, it's clearly just like a little visual,

01:00:36 ◼   ► just to make it pleasingly symmetric.

01:00:40 ◼   ► - And they need a microphone down there too,

01:00:41 ◼   ► where you can talk into it.

01:00:42 ◼   ► So they have a lot of things that they have to,

01:00:44 ◼   ► it's sort of like when you read those threads,

01:00:45 ◼   ► like Apple delete the bezels, do all this.

01:00:48 ◼   ► And there's components in there.

01:00:49 ◼   ► Like you can't just cut things off.

01:00:51 ◼   ► There's actual, they pack the electronics in there

01:00:53 ◼   ► really, really tightly.

01:00:54 ◼   ► - All right, let me take a break here

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01:02:51 ◼   ► Here's what else do we expect at this event this week.

01:02:54 ◼   ► I expect to hear about a new Apple Watch.

01:02:57 ◼   ► I don't know if they're gonna call it Apple Watch 2.

01:02:59 ◼   ► I don't know what they're gonna call it,

01:03:00 ◼   ► but for the sake of argument, for the sake of discussion,

01:03:02 ◼   ► I'm gonna call it Apple Watch 2.

01:03:04 ◼   ► - The new Apple Watch.

01:03:05 ◼   ► - The new Apple Watch.

01:03:06 ◼   ► I think they're going to,

01:03:08 ◼   ► I think it's gonna be a big part of the event.

01:03:09 ◼   ► I think that it is going to be really interesting

01:03:12 ◼   ► to see what they've done,

01:03:16 ◼   ► because it's really two years after the original.

01:03:18 ◼   ► It's not two years after it shipped,

01:03:19 ◼   ► but it's certainly two years after it was introduced.

01:03:22 ◼   ► And at the meta level, compared to how much we seemingly

01:03:28 ◼   ► know about the iPhone 7, including the boxes,

01:03:32 ◼   ► the actual packaging, we seemingly

01:03:36 ◼   ► know so much about the iPhone 7.

01:03:38 ◼   ► Almost nothing about Apple Watch 2 has come out.

01:03:41 ◼   ► Otherwise, the only thing we really seemingly know

01:03:43 ◼   ► is that it's going to add GPS.

01:03:45 ◼   ► Yeah, I think it's similar to the early days of the iPhone,

01:03:48 ◼   ► where they sort of knew where they wanted to go,

01:03:49 ◼   ► but they took a very staged approach to get there.

01:03:51 ◼   ► and the original iPhone shipped with Edge,

01:03:53 ◼   ► but then the next one came out with 3G and GPS,

01:03:56 ◼   ► and then it just kept rolling from there.

01:03:58 ◼   ► And in this case, you're dealing with something

01:04:00 ◼   ► that has a far smaller, they're not making tens of million,

01:04:02 ◼   ► maybe over the course of the year,

01:04:03 ◼   ► they'll sell 10, 20, 30, 40 million of them,

01:04:05 ◼   ► but they're not trying to put those in stores for day one.

01:04:08 ◼   ► And if the casing isn't changing,

01:04:10 ◼   ► then it's very hard to differentiate what's an iPad,

01:04:12 ◼   ► sorry, an Apple Watch 2 from an Apple Watch 1,

01:04:15 ◼   ► just in terms of leaks on Sino Weibo or places like that.

01:04:18 ◼   ► - Yeah, so that would be one explanation

01:04:20 ◼   ► for why it hasn't leaked would be if the physical dimensions

01:04:24 ◼   ► are unchanged.

01:04:25 ◼   ► Yeah, no new color, and if it's the same casing,

01:04:27 ◼   ► it's very hard to get a leak out of it.

01:04:30 ◼   ► I wonder.

01:04:31 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:04:33 ◼   ► This is one of those things where-- and I really

01:04:35 ◼   ► hope it doesn't leak last minute,

01:04:38 ◼   ► while I'm on the airplane flying out there,

01:04:39 ◼   ► because I love the idea of going into the event

01:04:42 ◼   ► not knowing what the heck they're going

01:04:44 ◼   ► to say about Apple Watch 2.

01:04:45 ◼   ► That's one of the funniest things to me,

01:04:46 ◼   ► is I keep getting these tweets from people

01:04:48 ◼   ► who say that the event's going to be boring,

01:04:50 ◼   ► because they know everything is going to happen.

01:04:51 ◼   ► It's like reading the script to the next Star Wars movie

01:04:53 ◼   ► and then going to the theater and saying, it's boring.

01:04:56 ◼   ► I knew what happened.

01:04:57 ◼   ► I read the script.

01:04:58 ◼   ► Just pick one.

01:04:59 ◼   ► But I don't think that's true.

01:05:00 ◼   ► I think that the iPhone part might be,

01:05:03 ◼   ► although I'm intrigued at how they're

01:05:07 ◼   ► going to brag about the iPhone.

01:05:08 ◼   ► Like I said before, how they're going

01:05:09 ◼   ► to brag about the iPhone 7 Plus camera

01:05:11 ◼   ► without making the regular iPhone 7 camera look

01:05:14 ◼   ► like a weakling.

01:05:18 ◼   ► Absolutely.

01:05:19 ◼   ► To me, it's never, I don't write rumors anymore,

01:05:21 ◼   ► and the reason for that is there's always gonna be

01:05:23 ◼   ► new iPhones, unless Apple peaces out, drops the mic,

01:05:26 ◼   ► and says we're going into hot tubs,

01:05:27 ◼   ► every year there's gonna be a new iPhone.

01:05:29 ◼   ► And that's not as interesting to me as what problems

01:05:32 ◼   ► they're gonna try to solve, and especially the way

01:05:33 ◼   ► they're gonna try to solve it.

01:05:34 ◼   ► And that always requires a story,

01:05:36 ◼   ► and you very seldom get a story out of the leaks.

01:05:39 ◼   ► - Right, so I'm curious, and who knows?

01:05:41 ◼   ► Maybe it's not physically identical to the old Apple Watch,

01:05:45 ◼   ► and they've simply maintained secrecy

01:05:47 ◼   ► up until the point where they announce it.

01:05:49 ◼   ► - Tim Klucher saw him every night,

01:05:50 ◼   ► puts on his secret Apple Watch.

01:05:52 ◼   ► - Right.

01:05:53 ◼   ► I really, really don't know what to expect in that regard.

01:05:56 ◼   ► Here's a question.

01:05:58 ◼   ► Do you think that Apple Watch Edition will still exist?

01:06:03 ◼   ► - We talked about this in person,

01:06:07 ◼   ► whether there was gonna be a second generation

01:06:09 ◼   ► or whether they would just add new finishes,

01:06:10 ◼   ► like would they add white gold or titanium

01:06:12 ◼   ► or something to that line,

01:06:13 ◼   ► because there's a lot you can do

01:06:15 ◼   ► in the high-end watch line.

01:06:16 ◼   ► And I know people made fun of it, but there is a group of people who buy $25,000 tickets to the

01:06:22 ◼   ► Emirates and $20,000 dresses or tuxedos they wear once or rent five-star or six-star hotel rooms

01:06:28 ◼   ► for exorbitant price, and to them it really is next to nothing. It's like us buying an iPad,

01:06:32 ◼   ► an iPad sock, and that is a market. I don't think it was a great market for them, so it might just

01:06:38 ◼   ► be a distraction. My guess is we won't hear about them because we haven't heard about them in a

01:06:42 ◼   ► really long time and I think they would have stoked that fire. Like, we never saw the release of the

01:06:45 ◼   ► the gold link bracelet, for example.

01:06:47 ◼   ► And I think they would have done more to keep it alive

01:06:49 ◼   ► if they really meant for that product line to continue.

01:06:51 ◼   ► - Yeah, my gut feeling is that the Apple Watch Edition

01:06:55 ◼   ► just goes into the memory hole.

01:06:58 ◼   ► That it's, you know, they're just not gonna talk about it.

01:07:01 ◼   ► And I, and you and I, we have spoken about it.

01:07:04 ◼   ► I don't forget if we talked on the show,

01:07:05 ◼   ► but I know we've spoken on Persian,

01:07:06 ◼   ► where I feel like one of the ways, you know,

01:07:10 ◼   ► part of it is that Apple doesn't see the future.

01:07:13 ◼   ► You know, they have good ideas,

01:07:15 ◼   ► they have guesses as to what's going to be popular,

01:07:17 ◼   ► but that they don't have the magical ability

01:07:21 ◼   ► to know exactly what people will buy.

01:07:24 ◼   ► And they keep their eyes open

01:07:26 ◼   ► after they come out with something and they adjust.

01:07:28 ◼   ► And I think that the way that they've adjusted,

01:07:31 ◼   ► I think that the way that they're addressing

01:07:33 ◼   ► the luxury market is with the Hermes line.

01:07:37 ◼   ► And it's obviously,

01:07:40 ◼   ► those watches are significantly less than the gold,

01:07:43 ◼   ► even the cheapest of the gold edition ones.

01:07:46 ◼   ► But they're a lot more than the regular

01:07:49 ◼   ► stainless steel Apple watches.

01:07:50 ◼   ► - And they're a lot less.

01:07:51 ◼   ► I went into the, at SFO, in the international terminal,

01:07:53 ◼   ► they have a Hermes store.

01:07:55 ◼   ► And the Hermes actual watch bands are way more expensive.

01:07:58 ◼   ► I think it was like three to 6,000 for the Dublatour,

01:08:01 ◼   ► for the Hermes watch, where it's only like 1,000 something,

01:08:04 ◼   ► only, you know, a couple hundred,

01:08:05 ◼   ► 500 or 600 or 1,000 for the Apple watch version.

01:08:08 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's actually a cheaper Hermes watch

01:08:10 ◼   ► than the regular Hermes watches,

01:08:12 ◼   ► even though it's a more expensive Apple Watch.

01:08:13 ◼   ► And I kind of feel like that's the sweet spot

01:08:16 ◼   ► for Apple Watch in terms of the highest price points

01:08:20 ◼   ► that you want to hit.

01:08:21 ◼   ► And I would not be surprised in the least

01:08:25 ◼   ► if they have more stuff from Hermes,

01:08:27 ◼   ► and I wouldn't be surprised if they keep Hermes around

01:08:30 ◼   ► and maybe add another similar brand of similar stature

01:08:34 ◼   ► to a Hermes and have, for example, Gucci ones

01:08:38 ◼   ► or something like that.

01:08:39 ◼   ► - Absolutely.

01:08:41 ◼   ► The first generation of any product is awkward.

01:08:43 ◼   ► The first iPhone, they did a lot of changes for the second one.

01:08:45 ◼   ► The iPad 2, they had much better focus for that than they had on the iPad 1.

01:08:51 ◼   ► With the Apple Watch, arguably they went to market way sooner.

01:08:54 ◼   ► There was 10 years of tablets before the iPad and 10 years of smartphones before the iPhone,

01:08:58 ◼   ► and there were very few years of smartwatch.

01:09:00 ◼   ► They were part of the discovery process.

01:09:02 ◼   ► They couldn't just sit back and look at everybody else's mistakes and then come out with a coherent

01:09:06 ◼   ► product.

01:09:07 ◼   ► in the original Apple Watch demo,

01:09:09 ◼   ► it didn't have that minimal delightful product feel

01:09:12 ◼   ► the way you had with the original iPhone

01:09:13 ◼   ► where, oh, just look at the Photos app, it's amazing.

01:09:15 ◼   ► I can pinch and zoom and do all these things

01:09:17 ◼   ► and you'd sell them to every friend you had

01:09:19 ◼   ► who just wanted to do the same thing.

01:09:20 ◼   ► It was like five different, six different functions

01:09:22 ◼   ► and now we've seen with Apple, with the WatchOS 3,

01:09:25 ◼   ► it's very clearly, it's fitness and notifications,

01:09:27 ◼   ► there's far fewer things

01:09:29 ◼   ► and I think that's why we're seeing GPS.

01:09:32 ◼   ► GPS is gonna be of much more use

01:09:33 ◼   ► to people who are into fitness and jogging

01:09:36 ◼   ► And we've seen, you know, there's people on campus

01:09:37 ◼   ► who wear an Apple Watch and a Garmin

01:09:39 ◼   ► because they're serious fitness people

01:09:41 ◼   ► and they have to have GPS with them.

01:09:43 ◼   ► And it addresses part of what I think is a narrower focus

01:09:46 ◼   ► for the Apple Watch going forward.

01:09:47 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think that GPS is to the Apple Watch 2

01:09:52 ◼   ► what 3G was to the iPhone.

01:09:55 ◼   ► Although I guess the iPhone with the iPhone 3G,

01:09:57 ◼   ► it gained GPS too.

01:09:58 ◼   ► - Yes.

01:09:59 ◼   ► - Right, the first?

01:10:00 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:10:01 ◼   ► - Remember the first iPhone?

01:10:02 ◼   ► Did you use cell phone triangulation to tell you where?

01:10:03 ◼   ► - And WiFi mapping.

01:10:05 ◼   ► - Right.

01:10:06 ◼   ► (laughing)

01:10:06 ◼   ► - Like it was one of those Tony Stark expos

01:10:08 ◼   ► explaining the technology for the first time.

01:10:10 ◼   ► - I love that phone.

01:10:12 ◼   ► But it's so laughable.

01:10:14 ◼   ► But I don't think the GPS, I know for some people

01:10:16 ◼   ► I guess GPS was a big deal for the iPhone too,

01:10:18 ◼   ► but to me the 3G was the one where it's like,

01:10:20 ◼   ► man they just couldn't fit it in the first year,

01:10:24 ◼   ► but still thought it was worth shipping what they could do.

01:10:27 ◼   ► And I think that ideally GPS is the one thing

01:10:30 ◼   ► they really would have wanted to have all along.

01:10:32 ◼   ► 'cause they obviously saw this as a fitness device.

01:10:35 ◼   ► It was one of the main three tent pole descriptions

01:10:38 ◼   ► of what it does.

01:10:39 ◼   ► And it just didn't fit.

01:10:43 ◼   ► - Well, the current Apple Watch,

01:10:44 ◼   ► the first generation Apple Watch,

01:10:45 ◼   ► runs at the thermal limit of that casing already.

01:10:48 ◼   ► So you start, and again, Apple's not a dumb company.

01:10:50 ◼   ► They have billions of dollars.

01:10:51 ◼   ► They can prototype everything.

01:10:52 ◼   ► And from the beginning, they've wanted a GPS,

01:10:54 ◼   ► and they've wanted cellular.

01:10:56 ◼   ► But when you look at how hot that thing is already

01:10:57 ◼   ► and what the battery life is already,

01:10:59 ◼   ► it takes time to get to those things.

01:11:01 ◼   ► And now they feel confident that they can add GPS

01:11:03 ◼   ► and maintain battery life and maintain the thermals.

01:11:06 ◼   ► I think for them LTE still melts your wrist off

01:11:08 ◼   ► or depletes the device quickly.

01:11:10 ◼   ► But as soon as that's solved, I'm absolutely sure

01:11:12 ◼   ► they'll roll out the version with the LTE as well.

01:11:15 ◼   ► - That doesn't make, I'm sure it'll happen eventually,

01:11:17 ◼   ► but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me

01:11:20 ◼   ► to be a top priority because I just don't think

01:11:22 ◼   ► many people are really looking to have another

01:11:25 ◼   ► monthly cellular bill.

01:11:27 ◼   ► - I guess it depends how the carriers,

01:11:29 ◼   ► absolutely, I guess it depends how the carriers

01:11:31 ◼   ► It is probably a theory that eventually there'll be something past the smartwatch.

01:11:36 ◼   ► And we don't know what that is yet or what the capabilities will be, but maybe it's a wearable device.

01:11:41 ◼   ► And right now the Apple Watch is like, again, like a shuttlecraft to the Starship that's the iPhone.

01:11:46 ◼   ► But eventually it might be its own ship and can basically do everything if you want it to by itself.

01:11:50 ◼   ► And then you don't have to worry about taking a phone with you.

01:11:52 ◼   ► Right. And I realize that there is, it ties into the fitness angle, right?

01:11:56 ◼   ► angle, right, where there are certain physical activities where you'd be happy to wear a watch,

01:12:01 ◼   ► but would prefer not to have to bring your phone because, you know, it's hard. If you're just going

01:12:05 ◼   ► running, you've got to get a special pocket or an armband or a sack around your waist, whatever

01:12:13 ◼   ► those things are called. It's a pain to keep your phone with you when you run. But for most of those

01:12:21 ◼   ► things, I don't really care if I have internet access. GPS is a bigger difference for tracking

01:12:26 ◼   ► distance and stuff like that, but if I can't get notifications, who cares?

01:12:30 ◼   ► **Ezra Klein-Lam

01:12:49 ◼   ► until December at the earliest.

01:12:51 ◼   ► I found that whole story to be ridiculous.

01:12:53 ◼   ► - Again, they've had a cellular prototype

01:12:55 ◼   ► since before they shipped the iPhone,

01:12:56 ◼   ► so I'm sure every carrier keeps asking,

01:12:58 ◼   ► are you gonna do one, are you gonna do one?

01:13:00 ◼   ► But it doesn't sound--

01:13:02 ◼   ► - Right, 'cause the carriers,

01:13:03 ◼   ► I think the carriers are the ones

01:13:04 ◼   ► that are most interested in charging you

01:13:05 ◼   ► another $15 a month or whatever it would cost.

01:13:08 ◼   ► - I had the most interesting conversation

01:13:10 ◼   ► with one of the people in PR for a cell phone company

01:13:12 ◼   ► when I was asking about the shared plans,

01:13:14 ◼   ► because they were trying to tell me

01:13:15 ◼   ► how you could just add an iPad to your plan,

01:13:17 ◼   ► it was just $15 more,

01:13:19 ◼   ► and I kept asking, "Why? Why isn't it free?"

01:13:21 ◼   ► And they said, "What do you mean?"

01:13:22 ◼   ► I said, "If I order a pizza and I split it with John,

01:13:24 ◼   ► you don't charge me more

01:13:25 ◼   ► 'cause I'm splitting the pizza with John.

01:13:26 ◼   ► It's the same pizza."

01:13:27 ◼   ► And they just kept insisting that the dado was different

01:13:29 ◼   ► because I was using it with two people.

01:13:31 ◼   ► - Well, you know what, though?

01:13:32 ◼   ► You will get, you know, there are at certain restaurants,

01:13:34 ◼   ► at a higher-end restaurant,

01:13:35 ◼   ► you will get charged for a shared plate.

01:13:37 ◼   ► - Yeah, that's true.

01:13:37 ◼   ► - So it's not like it's without precedent, but it's, you know.

01:13:42 ◼   ► I'm with you more on the pizza side.

01:13:45 ◼   ► I kind of feel like, you know,

01:13:47 ◼   ► for what I pay Verizon every month,

01:13:48 ◼   ► should be able to hook up more devices.

01:13:50 ◼   ► Absolutely.

01:13:50 ◼   ► And just when you're done with your data,

01:13:51 ◼   ► you're done with your data.

01:13:52 ◼   ► That's your problem.

01:13:52 ◼   ► And I'm not asking for more gigabytes, right?

01:13:54 ◼   ► Just let me use my gigabytes on whatever devices I want.

01:13:58 ◼   ► Absolutely.

01:13:59 ◼   ► Yeah, but I don't think they see it that way.

01:14:01 ◼   ► No, they don't want to be dumb pipes.

01:14:03 ◼   ► It's the last thing that they want.

01:14:05 ◼   ► What do you think about--

01:14:06 ◼   ► I think it's got to be a sure thing that there's going

01:14:08 ◼   ► to be a new lineup of bands.

01:14:10 ◼   ► It seems like they do spring and fall new watch bands.

01:14:14 ◼   ► This just seems like it's part of the pattern.

01:14:16 ◼   ► I mean, again, it's two years in,

01:14:18 ◼   ► but it just seems like this is part of the pattern of Apple Watch.

01:14:20 ◼   ► Yeah, and we got new watch bands last iPhone event.

01:14:24 ◼   ► I think that was the debut of the Hermes bands.

01:14:26 ◼   ► And then at the March event, we got the woven nylon bands.

01:14:31 ◼   ► So I'd be interested to see if we just get new colors,

01:14:33 ◼   ► or like you said, there's a new partnership announced,

01:14:34 ◼   ► or there is a new style of band announced,

01:14:37 ◼   ► or what they could do there.

01:14:39 ◼   ► I'd also love them to just take this, for example,

01:14:42 ◼   ► you can still only get the loop in the 42 millimeter.

01:14:44 ◼   ► And I know a lot of people who would love that

01:14:45 ◼   ► on the 38 millimeter and sort of just round out the way they handle the distribution.

01:14:49 ◼   ► Yeah, I think it's got to be a sure thing, and I totally expect them to be compatible with the

01:14:55 ◼   ► new Apple Watch. Yeah, I have so many bands, John. I know, but you've got like a real problem. Yes,

01:15:01 ◼   ► to be honest. I absolutely do. And it's not even just that you're going to want it, you're going

01:15:06 ◼   ► to get the new Apple Watch and you're going to want to use your old bands, but it's, if they're

01:15:10 ◼   ► are not compatible, you're going to get confused as to which ones, you know.

01:15:15 ◼   ► I'll have to burn the old ones so I don't get confused or something.

01:15:20 ◼   ► I think the Apple Watch is going to be a big part.

01:15:23 ◼   ► I think it's just almost mind-boggling to me how little speculation there is about Apple

01:15:29 ◼   ► Watch 2 in this week's event compared to the iPhone.

01:15:32 ◼   ► Whereas I think it's going to be comparable to two years ago where it's a huge, huge part

01:15:37 ◼   ► of the announcement.

01:15:38 ◼   ► Yeah, I think in some ways, watchOS 3 was so great that it took some of the pressure off of

01:15:45 ◼   ► Apple Watch 2 because it makes it so much faster and it makes it so much more coherent. And if we

01:15:49 ◼   ► hadn't gotten that, people would be desperate for an upgrade just to get more speeds and feeds

01:15:54 ◼   ► behind the existing software. But because Apple Watch 3 pairs things down and makes it work much

01:16:00 ◼   ► better, I've been using it since WWDC and it's so good, I was actually wondering if it would give

01:16:05 ◼   ► them an extra six months before they had to push out new hardware.

01:16:08 ◼   ► I started using it in, I think, in mid-July.

01:16:11 ◼   ► I was traveling too much in early July.

01:16:13 ◼   ► And you had to do it with your phone, too.

01:16:15 ◼   ► You had to take your phone to the iOS 10 beta and the watch.

01:16:19 ◼   ► You had to go both.

01:16:21 ◼   ► So I waited a little bit, but I've been using it since July.

01:16:24 ◼   ► And it is exactly as promised.

01:16:26 ◼   ► It is every bit as much faster and more responsive

01:16:29 ◼   ► as Apple promised.

01:16:30 ◼   ► Yeah, and that whole Friends Hub just--

01:16:32 ◼   ► it is such a better experience.

01:16:34 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:16:35 ◼   ► Yeah, it really is.

01:16:36 ◼   ► So we'll see.

01:16:37 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:16:38 ◼   ► So I think people who just keep it--

01:16:40 ◼   ► and there was also a rumor about them keeping the first generation

01:16:42 ◼   ► Apple Watch, much as they've done with iPhones,

01:16:44 ◼   ► and knocking some of the price off to make a lower point of entry.

01:16:47 ◼   ► And I think Apple Watch 3 allows that to be a better experience, too.

01:16:50 ◼   ► They could credibly do that and have an entry-level Apple Watch

01:16:54 ◼   ► if they wanted to.

01:16:55 ◼   ► I wonder how they would do that.

01:16:57 ◼   ► I mean, maybe the answer is just as simple as,

01:16:59 ◼   ► who cares if they look the same?

01:17:01 ◼   ► But I don't know.

01:17:01 ◼   ► Like, would there be any other way--

01:17:03 ◼   ► maybe new finishes or a new gold, you know,

01:17:06 ◼   ► different different anodized colors for the new one something so that they're visually different

01:17:10 ◼   ► i don't know or maybe there's only one color option for the apple watch one that remains around

01:17:15 ◼   ► and ipads have looked the same for a lot like once in a while there's a physical difference like the

01:17:18 ◼   ► touch id sensor or now they have the new sizes but for a while the ipad mini is all looked the same

01:17:23 ◼   ► and the ipads air were marginally different yeah but i think that's where the jewelry aspect comes

01:17:27 ◼   ► in yeah where you can't you know if it costs a hundred dollars more you want it to look like

01:17:32 ◼   ► $100 more. Absolutely. So I don't know. We'll have to see. Let me take one more break and

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01:21:00 ◼   ► What else is going on?

01:21:02 ◼   ► Galaxy S7, sorry, Galaxy Note 7 recalls.

01:21:05 ◼   ► That's been all over the news.

01:21:09 ◼   ► That is all over the news.

01:21:11 ◼   ► Doesn't sound good. No, it's the something with the power cells that's causing overheating and/or combustion, and I think it was something like 45 units were affected, but they did a global recall.

01:21:24 ◼   ► Yeah, did they do a recall though? Because I just saw a story that Consumer Reports,

01:21:30 ◼   ► the headline from Consumer Reports is "Instead of offering to replace units, Samsung should

01:21:34 ◼   ► officially recall Note 7 via U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission making sales of

01:21:39 ◼   ► pre-recall units illegal."

01:21:41 ◼   ► Yeah, so there's a distinction that they, this is basically Samsung doing their own

01:21:45 ◼   ► thing where they globally announce that they're going to take these back and replace them

01:21:49 ◼   ► with improved units. And that's different than having an official U.S. government recall

01:21:53 ◼   ► where it does make them illegal and there's sort of a process in play so

01:21:56 ◼   ► that they would have to do that on a country-by-country basis too. Yeah, bad

01:22:02 ◼   ► timing too because it's right up in front of the iPhone event and I can't

01:22:06 ◼   ► help you know to point out that as much as Samsung is certainly Apple's you know

01:22:11 ◼   ► biggest rival in this game you know easily by far and away by most accounts

01:22:15 ◼   ► still the only two companies in the market who are really making profits on

01:22:18 ◼   ► smartphones.

01:22:20 ◼   ► It just goes to show how much less of a deal Samsung

01:22:23 ◼   ► is than Apple.

01:22:25 ◼   ► Because if the iPhone 7 were getting a recall three weeks

01:22:28 ◼   ► after it came out, this--

01:22:30 ◼   ► The world would stop.

01:22:31 ◼   ► For as much as in tech circles this is a story,

01:22:35 ◼   ► the iPhone thing would be like front page news.

01:22:37 ◼   ► That would be like front page of The New York Times style news.

01:22:40 ◼   ► Yeah, I went into Google Trends and just put Galaxy Recall

01:22:43 ◼   ► and iPhone Recall in there for fun.

01:22:45 ◼   ► And even though there has never been an iPhone recall,

01:22:47 ◼   ► not once, the yearly spike over whatever gate there is,

01:22:52 ◼   ► whether it's a bend gate or chip gate,

01:22:53 ◼   ► are far higher than the Google Trends for an actual Samsung

01:22:57 ◼   ► recall.

01:22:58 ◼   ► Right, that's a good example.

01:22:59 ◼   ► So like, bend gate created more controversy,

01:23:04 ◼   ► was more hyped, which was a real problem.

01:23:09 ◼   ► I mean, if your phone bent, it's a real problem.

01:23:11 ◼   ► But I mean, it didn't even necessitate a product recall.

01:23:16 ◼   ► than Samsung phones that actually explode.

01:23:20 ◼   ► - And the other thing that, you know,

01:23:22 ◼   ► Samsung is not my favorite company

01:23:23 ◼   ► for a variety of reasons,

01:23:24 ◼   ► mostly having to do with how Samsung has treated people

01:23:27 ◼   ► that I know who've worked there,

01:23:28 ◼   ► but they make a lot of the components

01:23:30 ◼   ► that go into iPhones too,

01:23:32 ◼   ► and they make a lot of batteries for both iPhones

01:23:34 ◼   ► and a lot of Apple products and a lot of other products,

01:23:36 ◼   ► and if they have a problem with the batteries

01:23:38 ◼   ► they're making for themselves,

01:23:39 ◼   ► it just means that everybody, every vendor,

01:23:41 ◼   ► everyone who's buying from Samsung

01:23:43 ◼   ► has to be incredibly careful going forward too.

01:23:46 ◼   ► - Yeah, I totally agree.

01:23:47 ◼   ► It's bad news.

01:23:48 ◼   ► I wonder how they're, you know,

01:23:50 ◼   ► I wonder how big of a financial hit this is.

01:23:53 ◼   ► If they-- - Yeah.

01:23:54 ◼   ► - Rumors are that they've already sold about 2.5 million.

01:23:57 ◼   ► And so if you figure, what are they?

01:23:58 ◼   ► Are they six or $700 phones?

01:24:01 ◼   ► - They're like 800 and $850 phones.

01:24:02 ◼   ► I think they're super expensive.

01:24:04 ◼   ► - But who knows what the cost is to them

01:24:06 ◼   ► for replacing them for everybody?

01:24:08 ◼   ► - Yeah, their bill of materials

01:24:09 ◼   ► is probably not insignificant.

01:24:11 ◼   ► - Hmm.

01:24:12 ◼   ► I don't get it. - And like you said,

01:24:14 ◼   ► bad timing and this it's it's arguable now whether the Galaxy S7 or this the

01:24:19 ◼   ► Galaxy S is their flagship or the Galaxy Note just because the Galaxy Note is

01:24:22 ◼   ► such a distinct product because it does have that pen and it does have you know

01:24:26 ◼   ► sort of the the upper end of all the features that they put into phones it

01:24:31 ◼   ► does sound like the good news if is again least in terms of personal safety

01:24:35 ◼   ► wise that the the phone tends the problem where it melts or explodes

01:24:40 ◼   ► whatever you want to call it burst into flames happens while it's charging yeah

01:24:43 ◼   ► And I mean that's good news in terms of it's better than if it happened when it was in your pocket

01:24:48 ◼   ► I'm not even joking around

01:24:50 ◼   ► I mean

01:24:51 ◼   ► But it's you know

01:24:51 ◼   ► It is obviously a fire hazard that if you know

01:24:53 ◼   ► I wonder I don't know I I would happen to have to think that it's better to have it happen when it charges

01:24:58 ◼   ► But a lot of times your phone charges while you know, you're not paying attention to it

01:25:02 ◼   ► So it's I know I'm wrapping up a lot of things here

01:25:05 ◼   ► But it's sort of I don't wish ill on any manufacturer and or any customer, you know

01:25:10 ◼   ► I want everyone to have great products.

01:25:12 ◼   ► And you never kick somebody when they're down.

01:25:13 ◼   ► But it reminded me of how much armchair product management

01:25:17 ◼   ► Apple has to put up with.

01:25:18 ◼   ► Like Apple did not switch to USB-C

01:25:21 ◼   ► and they were castigated for it.

01:25:22 ◼   ► And we watched those keynotes from Google I/O

01:25:25 ◼   ► and from Facebook and everyone said Apple's so behind

01:25:28 ◼   ► on this or that or they don't have,

01:25:30 ◼   ► you know, where's Apple's modular phones?

01:25:31 ◼   ► Both Motorola and Google are way ahead.

01:25:33 ◼   ► And then this week we also saw the cancellation

01:25:35 ◼   ► of Project Aura.

01:25:38 ◼   ► And it's impressive how much the tech industry

01:25:41 ◼   ► holds Apple's shipping products

01:25:43 ◼   ► against the imaginary products of their competitors.

01:25:46 ◼   ► - Yeah, totally.

01:25:47 ◼   ► And that's a good way to put it.

01:25:50 ◼   ► I mean, I think the McElope made that case

01:25:51 ◼   ► the first that I can remember.

01:25:53 ◼   ► And it's as true today as it's ever been.

01:25:58 ◼   ► - I remember CES a long time ago,

01:26:00 ◼   ► maybe 10, 15 years ago,

01:26:01 ◼   ► because Bill Gates was still presenting,

01:26:03 ◼   ► where he walked around with his Windows mobile phone

01:26:06 ◼   ► and how it would seamlessly integrate

01:26:07 ◼   ► with his personal computer and everything else

01:26:09 ◼   ► in his environment, his living room.

01:26:11 ◼   ► And that was the subject of his keynote

01:26:13 ◼   ► and Microsoft never, not ever shipped that.

01:26:16 ◼   ► And yet we have companies like Apple

01:26:17 ◼   ► who've pushed out continuity

01:26:19 ◼   ► and are increasingly making these things,

01:26:20 ◼   ► but it's 10 or 12 years later.

01:26:22 ◼   ► And every time someone does a keynote,

01:26:24 ◼   ► they're seen as behind, they're seen as beleaguered

01:26:26 ◼   ► or doomed and they just keep shipping products.

01:26:29 ◼   ► And I tried, I didn't have much time to speak in,

01:26:31 ◼   ► but I tried to go back and look at different Google IOs

01:26:33 ◼   ► and different manufacturers' keynotes

01:26:35 ◼   ► to see the products they announced

01:26:37 ◼   ► and try to figure out which ones of them