142: ‘They Sherlocked F.lux’ With Dan Frommer
00:00:00
◼
►
You were at CES.
00:00:02
◼
►
- Now correct me if I'm wrong.
00:00:04
◼
►
So this is the second year, okay.
00:00:05
◼
►
And you came on the show last year
00:00:06
◼
►
and talked about CES, right?
00:00:07
◼
►
- I think this might be our third or fourth
00:00:10
◼
►
annual CES discussion.
00:00:13
◼
►
And I think the first two I didn't go
00:00:14
◼
►
and were like, oh, we should go.
00:00:17
◼
►
And then last year I went for the first time.
00:00:19
◼
►
- It is absolutely a John Gruver, the talk show tradition
00:00:25
◼
►
that like mid January, I have someone on,
00:00:28
◼
►
we talk about CES and then I say, you know what,
00:00:30
◼
►
damn it, next year I'm going.
00:00:32
◼
►
And then next year comes and goes and I don't go.
00:00:36
◼
►
- You almost need to start planning it now.
00:00:38
◼
►
And it's funny because they've already changed the website
00:00:40
◼
►
over to 2017 CES.
00:00:43
◼
►
I wonder if they have a script that does that.
00:00:45
◼
►
It was like the next day, boom.
00:00:48
◼
►
Their website's already turned over.
00:00:49
◼
►
It was great, man, I love it.
00:00:52
◼
►
It was super fun.
00:00:54
◼
►
It's absolute insanity.
00:00:55
◼
►
I mean, you go to Vegas a lot.
00:00:57
◼
►
And I had not been to Vegas in 10 years actually
00:01:01
◼
►
before last year's CES and it is absolute chaos.
00:01:06
◼
►
I mean there are 200,000 people there who do not belong.
00:01:09
◼
►
They are from, it's kind of neat because basically
00:01:13
◼
►
what happens is at the beginning of the year,
00:01:15
◼
►
not everyone but 200,000 people who work in tech
00:01:21
◼
►
and in adjacent industries are all living
00:01:24
◼
►
in one city for a week.
00:01:25
◼
►
So you run into people who, you know, you would not expect to see, I'm totally
00:01:30
◼
►
like randomly ran into a guy in a restaurant.
00:01:34
◼
►
We were both waiting to eat at the bar and we ended up eating lunch together.
00:01:38
◼
►
Who's like, was partially responsible for the creation of the MP3, uh, random,
00:01:43
◼
►
random stuff like that.
00:01:44
◼
►
And then you're like reading Slack and your coworkers are like, Hey, you know,
00:01:48
◼
►
that Reed Hastings is giving a talk across, you know, in another place in Vegas.
00:01:52
◼
►
I'm like, no, I didn't know that.
00:01:54
◼
►
You know, there's just so much going on.
00:01:56
◼
►
It's absolute madness and chaos,
00:01:59
◼
►
but if you can tolerate it,
00:02:03
◼
►
and I guess enough trips to Tokyo have now made me
00:02:05
◼
►
totally chilled out around massive crowds,
00:02:09
◼
►
it's really cool, it's very special.
00:02:11
◼
►
- I think the crowds, that wouldn't bother me.
00:02:14
◼
►
I can take crowds in small doses.
00:02:17
◼
►
I mean, I go to Disney a couple times a year
00:02:19
◼
►
and stuff like that.
00:02:20
◼
►
What I like though, if you go somewhere like that,
00:02:23
◼
►
is if you can take the time to spend some time
00:02:27
◼
►
somewhere away from the crowd every day.
00:02:29
◼
►
- Yeah, where it gets to you,
00:02:31
◼
►
I don't mind the actual crowd where it gets to you
00:02:33
◼
►
is that the infrastructure is just way beyond capacity.
00:02:37
◼
►
I mean, people are talking about waiting an hour
00:02:40
◼
►
just to get on the monorail.
00:02:42
◼
►
Just to get into the station.
00:02:44
◼
►
Or you wanna go anywhere to eat lunch, forget it.
00:02:47
◼
►
Like you're waiting.
00:02:48
◼
►
Or they have this shuttle bus that goes from one,
00:02:53
◼
►
'cause it basically takes up both the Sands
00:02:56
◼
►
and the Las Vegas convention centers.
00:02:58
◼
►
And they have a shuttle bus, a free shuttle bus
00:03:00
◼
►
that goes between them.
00:03:02
◼
►
It can't be more than a mile.
00:03:03
◼
►
And you know what? - It's not far.
00:03:05
◼
►
- No, and I've walked it, and it's totally walkable.
00:03:07
◼
►
I mean, there's barely any sidewalk,
00:03:09
◼
►
but this bus trip takes like 40 minutes
00:03:13
◼
►
because there's so much traffic,
00:03:14
◼
►
because everyone else is in a cab
00:03:16
◼
►
trying to get between these places.
00:03:17
◼
►
And it's just madness.
00:03:20
◼
►
Last year I stayed at the fairly far south end of the strip
00:03:25
◼
►
and this year one of my priorities was
00:03:27
◼
►
stay somewhere further, closer to the action.
00:03:29
◼
►
So at least you could walk from--
00:03:31
◼
►
- South is the airport side, right?
00:03:33
◼
►
Like down by Mandalay Bay?
00:03:35
◼
►
- Yeah, Mandalay Bay.
00:03:36
◼
►
- It's funny, in my head I feel like that's up,
00:03:38
◼
►
like that's up the strip.
00:03:40
◼
►
- Down the strip is down by like the wind.
00:03:42
◼
►
- Stratosphere.
00:03:43
◼
►
- Yeah, but it's the other way around, right?
00:03:44
◼
►
- Right, yeah.
00:03:45
◼
►
And so that was useful, although a lot of the stuff,
00:03:49
◼
►
A lot of the official press conferences are at Mandalay Bay.
00:03:53
◼
►
- That's crazy though.
00:03:54
◼
►
It's so far away.
00:03:56
◼
►
I'm in a fortunate position where I could basically pick,
00:04:00
◼
►
Quartz, where I work, qz.com,
00:04:03
◼
►
we're still small enough that we can be picky
00:04:08
◼
►
about what we cover.
00:04:09
◼
►
So I don't have to actually go and live blog
00:04:12
◼
►
an Nvidia press conference or something like that.
00:04:15
◼
►
No one's telling me I need to do that.
00:04:17
◼
►
So I actually got to skip all those official
00:04:20
◼
►
press conference type things.
00:04:21
◼
►
So I didn't actually have to go down
00:04:22
◼
►
to Mandalay Bay this time.
00:04:23
◼
►
But a lot of the action, like the good stuff's going on
00:04:27
◼
►
at Cosmopolitan, at the Wynn, and Venetian.
00:04:32
◼
►
So you really wanna be hanging out toward,
00:04:37
◼
►
kind of center to north strip most of the time.
00:04:41
◼
►
- So was anybody else from Quartz there,
00:04:43
◼
►
or were you the only representative of Quartz there?
00:04:46
◼
►
- No, several, I think there were four of us this year,
00:04:49
◼
►
two from our ad side, and then my colleague, Mike Murphy,
00:04:52
◼
►
who's a reporter who writes about,
00:04:55
◼
►
we have a beat called Machines with Brains,
00:04:59
◼
►
and it's drones, robots, AI, and that kind of stuff.
00:05:03
◼
►
And he was very busy, there was a lot.
00:05:05
◼
►
Although he came to CES with a cold, you can't do that.
00:05:12
◼
►
'Cause you're gonna get sick by the end,
00:05:14
◼
►
but you can't show up with a cold.
00:05:15
◼
►
so I felt bad about that.
00:05:17
◼
►
So yeah, he was there with me and we were basically
00:05:21
◼
►
just doing meetings, hitting the show floor.
00:05:24
◼
►
The show floor is comically extensive.
00:05:27
◼
►
Like you can walk, I had my Apple Watch with me,
00:05:31
◼
►
so Wednesday was my busiest day.
00:05:33
◼
►
I think I walked over 14 miles on Wednesday,
00:05:38
◼
►
whereas on an average day I probably walked six to eight.
00:05:41
◼
►
- Yeah, that's a lot.
00:05:42
◼
►
Anything over 10 is a--
00:05:43
◼
►
I did 27,000 steps, so that was pretty crazy.
00:05:48
◼
►
In boots too, which was dumb.
00:05:50
◼
►
But it was cool.
00:05:53
◼
►
- So it's a recurring theme,
00:05:56
◼
►
and I know we say this every year,
00:05:57
◼
►
but everybody goes to CES, quote unquote everybody goes,
00:06:01
◼
►
and then all the writers, they all say they hate it.
00:06:05
◼
►
Everybody just, as soon as it, it hasn't even started yet,
00:06:07
◼
►
and Twitter is filled with people in our racket
00:06:11
◼
►
saying how much they hate it.
00:06:13
◼
►
which always makes me think, well then, why do you go?
00:06:16
◼
►
You know, like, why does everybody go to this thing
00:06:19
◼
►
that they hate?
00:06:19
◼
►
But I'm exactly with you.
00:06:20
◼
►
My temptation to go is, it's because I, obviously,
00:06:25
◼
►
I could write whatever the hell I want,
00:06:27
◼
►
so I'm not going, and I can skip whatever I want.
00:06:30
◼
►
So, well, I understand that the hatred comes from people
00:06:32
◼
►
who, if you get an assignment from an editor,
00:06:35
◼
►
and they're like, here, here's your list
00:06:36
◼
►
of press conferences to go to,
00:06:38
◼
►
figure out what's new from, you know, LG and Samsung,
00:06:42
◼
►
and you know, whoever, and it all just starts
00:06:44
◼
►
to blur together because everybody is making
00:06:46
◼
►
the exact same things.
00:06:47
◼
►
Five inch Android phones and tablets and curved OLED TVs
00:06:52
◼
►
and it all just blurs together.
00:06:54
◼
►
And then you've got a schlep from one end to the other
00:06:56
◼
►
and it's gotta be backbreaking,
00:06:58
◼
►
if you can't pick and choose where you go.
00:07:01
◼
►
- One of the things we struggled with was we shot a video.
00:07:04
◼
►
Mike put on this exoskeleton suit that's designed
00:07:08
◼
►
to age you to like a hundred years old
00:07:10
◼
►
or something like that and do various things.
00:07:12
◼
►
It had like VR goggles built in
00:07:14
◼
►
and things that would make your muscles,
00:07:17
◼
►
that basically make your body move more slowly
00:07:20
◼
►
and it would affect your vision and all this stuff.
00:07:23
◼
►
And we took this video of him in this suit
00:07:26
◼
►
and then we realized that we literally didn't have
00:07:29
◼
►
the ability to upload the video to Dropbox.
00:07:32
◼
►
I'm not gonna tether on my cell phone and do it.
00:07:36
◼
►
Our hotel wifi sucked, we couldn't do it.
00:07:38
◼
►
It's like, okay, we almost have to go to a Starbucks.
00:07:41
◼
►
And I wonder if the press room had a free
00:07:44
◼
►
ethernet connection.
00:07:45
◼
►
We didn't actually go in the press room
00:07:46
◼
►
because it seemed like it was kind of a dump,
00:07:49
◼
►
but actually that may have solved our problem.
00:07:53
◼
►
But it's just stuff like that
00:07:54
◼
►
where you're just completely out of your element.
00:07:57
◼
►
But it's amazing, like you go,
00:07:59
◼
►
one of the things we did is we scraped the list of exhibitors
00:08:02
◼
►
and just did some very basic text analysis
00:08:04
◼
►
to see if there's anything interesting we could find.
00:08:08
◼
►
One thing that was cool was over 500 of the companies
00:08:11
◼
►
had the word Shenzhen in the title of the company.
00:08:15
◼
►
There are aisles and aisles and aisles of tiny booths
00:08:20
◼
►
with one or two people from Shenzhen, from China,
00:08:23
◼
►
who come to America once a year and there they are
00:08:26
◼
►
and I got a great little tour from a little old lady
00:08:30
◼
►
of her line of perfect GoPro knockoffs.
00:08:34
◼
►
And she's like giving me a demo of these things.
00:08:37
◼
►
the same case, same size, you know,
00:08:39
◼
►
it looks exactly like a GoPro,
00:08:41
◼
►
but it's $60 or something like that.
00:08:43
◼
►
- Was she saying it looks like a GoPro?
00:08:47
◼
►
Or was that, so she was mentioning the word GoPro.
00:08:50
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah, totally.
00:08:51
◼
►
Like that's the same case as a GoPro.
00:08:54
◼
►
Actually, one of the booths, you probably saw this,
00:08:56
◼
►
one of the booths that the,
00:08:58
◼
►
one of the hoverboard knockoffs was so similar
00:09:01
◼
►
to this one specific kind of balance board thing
00:09:06
◼
►
that the US Marshals raided it.
00:09:08
◼
►
- No, I didn't see this.
00:09:10
◼
►
I think Bloomberg got tipped off
00:09:12
◼
►
'cause I think some other sites got tipped off too
00:09:14
◼
►
and they videotaped it.
00:09:15
◼
►
And basically the US Marshals raided a booth.
00:09:19
◼
►
They confiscated all the product and shut these guys down.
00:09:23
◼
►
Yeah, yeah, it was crazy.
00:09:26
◼
►
I mean, there are a lot of knockoff looking things.
00:09:29
◼
►
And I believe the Bloomberg article interviewed someone
00:09:34
◼
►
from the people who put together the show.
00:09:37
◼
►
And they're kind of, as long as you're not,
00:09:41
◼
►
I forgot what the kind of limitations are,
00:09:44
◼
►
but basically like, don't be too fake,
00:09:45
◼
►
I think is the line.
00:09:48
◼
►
So in this case, that didn't work out.
00:09:52
◼
►
- It's gotta be such a surprise to the vendor.
00:09:54
◼
►
'Cause you know what I mean?
00:09:56
◼
►
It's like, there's the culture of how we value knockoffs.
00:10:03
◼
►
it's so different between here and China.
00:10:06
◼
►
And it's obviously, the whole concept
00:10:09
◼
►
of intellectual property isn't really
00:10:10
◼
►
like an institutional, cultural thing over there.
00:10:13
◼
►
Like there's no way that they would have,
00:10:17
◼
►
that had to be a complete surprise.
00:10:19
◼
►
'Cause if they would have thought it's even a possibility,
00:10:20
◼
►
they would have dialed it back.
00:10:23
◼
►
- I think so.
00:10:23
◼
►
It seemed like they were surprised.
00:10:26
◼
►
I wasn't there and I actually tried to look for the booth,
00:10:28
◼
►
but I couldn't really find it.
00:10:29
◼
►
And it wasn't really worth putting a lot of effort into.
00:10:32
◼
►
But that's the kind of stuff that goes on.
00:10:35
◼
►
But meanwhile, there's like 40 different drone companies
00:10:38
◼
►
of all shapes and sizes.
00:10:41
◼
►
A bunch of companies who paid up big bucks for big booths,
00:10:46
◼
►
like the size of an Intel booth from China
00:10:49
◼
►
that you really haven't heard of
00:10:51
◼
►
unless you're in the TV industry.
00:10:53
◼
►
So it was really fascinating.
00:10:56
◼
►
You realize how insignificant you are in the world
00:11:00
◼
►
when you're at CES.
00:11:01
◼
►
There's just so much stuff you've never heard of,
00:11:04
◼
►
and there's so many people who are doing stuff
00:11:07
◼
►
that is similar to what you're doing,
00:11:09
◼
►
but you've never heard of before,
00:11:11
◼
►
and you walk around exhausted, dehydrated,
00:11:16
◼
►
and it's cool, I love it, it's great.
00:11:19
◼
►
- Why are you dehydrated?
00:11:22
◼
►
Can't you get water?
00:11:24
◼
►
- I guess, yeah.
00:11:26
◼
►
I joke about this, but I almost set calendar reminders
00:11:30
◼
►
saying, "Okay, drink water right now.
00:11:32
◼
►
"Make sure you have lunch."
00:11:33
◼
►
Because then it's three o'clock
00:11:34
◼
►
and you haven't eaten lunch and you're falling asleep.
00:11:37
◼
►
I was carrying around a Kind bar in my backpack
00:11:40
◼
►
just to make sure that if I needed some protein,
00:11:43
◼
►
I'd still be alive.
00:11:44
◼
►
- I find that true.
00:11:46
◼
►
I've developed the reflexive habit
00:11:49
◼
►
of always be drinking something in Vegas.
00:11:51
◼
►
So in the morning, you're guzzling coffee,
00:11:54
◼
►
or afternoon, whenever you wake up.
00:11:57
◼
►
But then in the afternoon, it's like at any free moment,
00:12:00
◼
►
if you have an opportunity to put water in your hand, do it.
00:12:03
◼
►
'Cause it's like, in addition to the dehydrating effects
00:12:08
◼
►
of alcohol, the desert air really is a thing
00:12:12
◼
►
if you're not used to it.
00:12:13
◼
►
I mean, and it really, even if you don't drink alcohol,
00:12:16
◼
►
I mean, you're gonna get dried out in Vegas.
00:12:19
◼
►
- Shockingly, it was actually raining a couple of the days,
00:12:22
◼
►
which was super weird.
00:12:25
◼
►
- Yeah, I remember, I saw people,
00:12:27
◼
►
and that definitely makes everything worse,
00:12:29
◼
►
any temptation to walk is decreased.
00:12:32
◼
►
People actually drive.
00:12:33
◼
►
I've been out there when it rained and it's like people, the natives, the locals, they
00:12:37
◼
►
don't know how to drive in the rain.
00:12:41
◼
►
It's not icy, obviously.
00:12:43
◼
►
It's usually even in the winter above freezing.
00:12:47
◼
►
But the roads get a little wet and people are slipping and sliding.
00:12:50
◼
►
They don't even know how to drive on wet roads.
00:12:52
◼
►
Dave Asprey Yeah, that was weird.
00:12:57
◼
►
But it didn't get too bad.
00:12:58
◼
►
So I brought an umbrella and I didn't have to use it.
00:13:01
◼
►
So it was fine.
00:13:02
◼
►
It was interesting though.
00:13:03
◼
►
And I definitely feel like going back,
00:13:06
◼
►
I'm definitely gonna go back next year
00:13:08
◼
►
from in the position too.
00:13:10
◼
►
I think that like the,
00:13:12
◼
►
and my advice to you would be,
00:13:14
◼
►
do you think a little bit ahead of time
00:13:17
◼
►
and plan way ahead.
00:13:19
◼
►
I booked my hotel in, I wanna say November
00:13:23
◼
►
and by then like every good place was sold out.
00:13:25
◼
►
You really have to do it in like August or September,
00:13:28
◼
►
whenever they open up reservations, just book it
00:13:31
◼
►
and think a little bit ahead of time
00:13:33
◼
►
about what you want to get out of it,
00:13:36
◼
►
but really save a lot of time to wing it
00:13:39
◼
►
because there's just gonna be stuff that
00:13:41
◼
►
either you don't know about until you get there or--
00:13:44
◼
►
- I'm always confused by just the basic schedule of CES.
00:13:48
◼
►
Tell me if I'm wrong.
00:13:49
◼
►
I think the convention itself, the show floor,
00:13:53
◼
►
is Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
00:13:55
◼
►
- Yeah, and it changes, it was different this year though,
00:13:59
◼
►
actually, it was--
00:14:01
◼
►
- Maybe that's why I'm confused then.
00:14:02
◼
►
- Yeah, I think this year it was Wednesday,
00:14:06
◼
►
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, but I think previous years
00:14:09
◼
►
it was like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
00:14:12
◼
►
I don't know, it was definitely a day off this year
00:14:14
◼
►
to go later, I think because of the holiday.
00:14:17
◼
►
- But everybody who covers it, or almost everybody
00:14:19
◼
►
who covers it, comes a couple days early
00:14:21
◼
►
because there's pre-show announcements,
00:14:24
◼
►
Like there's like, I don't know if they call them keynotes,
00:14:27
◼
►
but there's like big keynote addresses that happen
00:14:31
◼
►
like this week, like this year, like on Monday and Tuesday.
00:14:34
◼
►
- There are press conferences and then there are keynotes
00:14:37
◼
►
and they're separate, I guess.
00:14:39
◼
►
I don't know, I remember like Steve Ballmer always did
00:14:42
◼
►
what it was like the Sunday night.
00:14:44
◼
►
- Right, the kick off. - Warm up, yeah, the kick off.
00:14:46
◼
►
I don't know, like this year there were some things,
00:14:48
◼
►
we were gonna go on Sunday and then I think there may have
00:14:52
◼
►
even been some stuff Saturday or at least Sunday.
00:14:55
◼
►
Uh, and we decided to fly in on Monday and then leave Friday.
00:14:59
◼
►
And we did miss some stuff that had happened Monday.
00:15:02
◼
►
But Tuesday, like the show floor is not, was not open yet.
00:15:06
◼
►
Although we got in to do a couple of meetings.
00:15:09
◼
►
Um, they like escorted us in and they were, it was crazy.
00:15:12
◼
►
Like a lot of the booths were, were barely half finished like the day before.
00:15:16
◼
►
And people were definitely there all night working to set stuff up.
00:15:20
◼
►
And it's absolutely like there's, you could, you could get killed by a machine
00:15:25
◼
►
any second, like there were just lots of stuff going on.
00:15:28
◼
►
Uh, and then Wednesday is when it was totally open and just chaos.
00:15:35
◼
►
Like I had a guided tour of the Samsung booth, but it was really not useful for
00:15:41
◼
►
any of us because there were just so many people standing between you and the
00:15:45
◼
►
refrigerator with a TV on it that you could barely even see it, it was just
00:15:49
◼
►
absolute chaos. And most of that stuff was at the Las Vegas convention center or was
00:15:55
◼
►
it split like the show floors were literally split between the convention center and the
00:15:59
◼
►
sands split and I bet there's a some sort of theme to it like that. So the basement
00:16:06
◼
►
of the sands has a lot of very small booths. And that's actually one of the best things
00:16:13
◼
►
I did was I met up with a couple guys from Kickstarter and they took me on a tour of
00:16:20
◼
►
the little, like the interesting startups that had all either done Kickstarters or were
00:16:26
◼
►
going to be doing Kickstarters. And that was actually really cool because there's a bunch
00:16:31
◼
►
of stuff I had never heard of and it was all pretty good. There's just a lot of garbage
00:16:36
◼
►
everywhere so you have to try to find the good stuff.
00:16:39
◼
►
the thing that I miss about Macworld and Macworld was you know and and it's I've
00:16:43
◼
►
said that you know I'll say it again next year too but the whole reason I
00:16:47
◼
►
never got into the habit of going to CES was that it overlapped with Macworld and
00:16:52
◼
►
I went to Macworld and then even when Macworld like after like Macworld's
00:16:58
◼
►
multi-year slow demise from being a thing to being literally nothing started
00:17:06
◼
►
with them moving the date around, where they moved it to the end of January. And then there
00:17:10
◼
►
was the one year where they had it like Super Bowl weekend, which was stupid. I forget where
00:17:15
◼
►
my it went into February, I think before they finally pulled the plug. But even then, when
00:17:19
◼
►
it wouldn't overlap, it just felt that felt like too much. Like it felt like I don't want
00:17:23
◼
►
to go to two of these things if I don't have to. So I'll just keep going to Mac world.
00:17:27
◼
►
But that's what one of the reasons I didn't get in the habit of it. But one of my favorite
00:17:30
◼
►
things about going to Mac world without question, was talking to the little booths, the little
00:17:35
◼
►
booths were always way more interesting than the big ones because usually you get to talk
00:17:39
◼
►
to the actual principals and there would always be at least a couple of booths that were like,
00:17:45
◼
►
"Wow, I did not even know that that was possible," type products.
00:17:50
◼
►
Yeah, one of them I saw that was pretty cool was a very small booth of a company that makes
00:17:57
◼
►
this clip-on camera that just kind of goes on your lapel and it's not recording video
00:18:02
◼
►
all day. It's constantly doing image analysis and recognition and making a text list via
00:18:08
◼
►
API of all the stuff that you've seen that day.
00:18:11
◼
►
Wow, that's crazy.
00:18:13
◼
►
Yeah, it was very cool. I actually have to write it up. I took some photos of it and
00:18:17
◼
►
I'll write up a post about it. This is the kind of thing where it's like, "This is really
00:18:23
◼
►
cool technology. This could be a cool product in a couple of years or in a year, or it could
00:18:28
◼
►
be nothing but here these guys are you know they got kind of a you know an
00:18:33
◼
►
okay-looking booth and this really interesting technology that you know and
00:18:39
◼
►
it's actually kind of cool like you know and of course with any camera that's
00:18:44
◼
►
always on privacy concerns but you could maybe train it to your LinkedIn account
00:18:49
◼
►
so it could tell you who you're looking at at a party or something like that I
00:18:53
◼
►
I don't know. It was interesting and it was one of those things where I was like,
00:18:58
◼
►
"All right, this is kind of the value of coming to a show like this because I never
00:19:02
◼
►
probably would have met these people otherwise and it's not like you're
00:19:07
◼
►
standing in the gigantic Intel booth, wondering what you're
00:19:10
◼
►
doing there." So that was pretty cool.
00:19:13
◼
►
I saw there was an episode of, I mean, it's not a new idea, but the BBC show
00:19:22
◼
►
Sherlock. I think it was Sherlock, but there was like a billionaire magnate bad guy sort of person
00:19:30
◼
►
and he had like heads he had just had regular wire rim glasses but when they showed his first person
00:19:36
◼
►
perspective it would instantly give him a sort of profile of anybody whose face he was looking at,
00:19:41
◼
►
you know, their name and you know some facts about them. And I feel like we're I feel like that is
00:19:47
◼
►
like it's still science fiction, but it's very, very near term science fiction.
00:19:52
◼
►
Like it's going to happen, you know, within the next decade.
00:19:55
◼
►
Yeah. I mean, I kind of I'm always the guy who wants I want the
00:20:02
◼
►
feed of random Instagram photos that I'm in the background of.
00:20:05
◼
►
No, I do, too. I'm I'm you know, I feel like we as a society and culture
00:20:12
◼
►
just we're already wrapping our heads around the fact that everything is on camera all the time.
00:20:17
◼
►
Totally, you know, and it's, you know, it's like, and some of
00:20:21
◼
►
the people who are adjusting the slowest are the ones who really
00:20:26
◼
►
should be adjusting the quickest, you know, like the way
00:20:28
◼
►
that when police officers have some kind of incident, and it's
00:20:31
◼
►
all caught on tape, and you see that it's just absolutely
00:20:34
◼
►
horrible police work. That's actually, you know, to me, it's
00:20:38
◼
►
helping to make our society better. I mean, there's
00:20:42
◼
►
obviously trade offs, big, big trade offs, and there's some
00:20:44
◼
►
and definite downsides to the lack of privacy.
00:20:46
◼
►
- I think that specifically has proven to be very powerful
00:20:51
◼
►
over the last couple years.
00:20:53
◼
►
What was weird though was looking up and seeing a guy
00:20:57
◼
►
wearing Google Glass for the first time in over a year.
00:21:01
◼
►
That was crazy.
00:21:02
◼
►
That was very weird.
00:21:04
◼
►
- How many people did you see at CES wearing Google Glass?
00:21:07
◼
►
'Cause I feel like if there's anywhere left
00:21:08
◼
►
that people are still pretending that Google Glass
00:21:11
◼
►
is gonna be a thing, it's CES.
00:21:13
◼
►
I saw two in a row and that was it.
00:21:16
◼
►
Like two in the basement of the Palms,
00:21:19
◼
►
or Palms, the basement of the Sands Convention Center.
00:21:24
◼
►
And that was at the whole show, two guys.
00:21:27
◼
►
And the one guy was like tall and large
00:21:29
◼
►
and it was just kind of weird.
00:21:32
◼
►
But that was the last time I'd seen him.
00:21:33
◼
►
Sometimes in New York, you see them
00:21:35
◼
►
when you're walking around over by the Google offices.
00:21:39
◼
►
But otherwise I haven't seen one in over,
00:21:42
◼
►
least over a year.
00:21:43
◼
►
All right, let's hold this thought.
00:21:45
◼
►
I still have more CES stuff to talk about, but I might as well fit in our first break
00:21:48
◼
►
here and tell you about our good friends at Wealthfront.
00:21:54
◼
►
Wealthfront is a low-cost, automated investment service that makes it easy to invest your
00:21:58
◼
►
money the right way.
00:22:00
◼
►
It works 24/7 to manage your portfolio, keeping it diversified, customized to your personal
00:22:06
◼
►
risk profile and it optimizes its trading behavior to keep your tax bill low, all without
00:22:13
◼
►
charging commissions.
00:22:15
◼
►
Whether you've got millions of dollars to invest or you're just starting out and you
00:22:19
◼
►
want to start a regular program to save for your retirement, Wealthfront is a great fit
00:22:27
◼
►
So where do you go to find out more?
00:22:28
◼
►
Go to their website.
00:22:29
◼
►
It's wealthfront.com/thetalkshow.
00:22:33
◼
►
Just a couple of the points here.
00:22:36
◼
►
More or less Wealthfront is an automated service that replaces a personal financial manager.
00:22:40
◼
►
The reason you might want to consider that is that algorithms can actually do pretty
00:22:45
◼
►
good with this just by putting your money into index funds.
00:22:47
◼
►
It's not really Wealthfront.
00:22:49
◼
►
You can read all the details on their website, but they're not really about trying to magically
00:22:52
◼
►
pick individual companies that their stock is going to go up.
00:22:55
◼
►
That's really, really tough and most people who try that don't win.
00:22:58
◼
►
The way to win in the long term is to go with index funds and that's what Wealthfront mostly
00:23:03
◼
►
They charge way, way less than a personal financial manager.
00:23:07
◼
►
Instead of 1% to 3% of the money under management,
00:23:12
◼
►
they charge a fraction of 1%.
00:23:14
◼
►
And they don't charge anything up to $10,000.
00:23:18
◼
►
And for listeners of the show who
00:23:20
◼
►
go to wealthfront.com/thetalkshow,
00:23:22
◼
►
they actually raise that up to $15,000.
00:23:24
◼
►
So the first $15,000 you put in there,
00:23:26
◼
►
just to see how it works and see if it works
00:23:29
◼
►
for you and your family, you don't pay any fees at all.
00:23:32
◼
►
So you really can't beat that.
00:23:33
◼
►
Last but not least, for compliance purposes,
00:23:35
◼
►
I have to read this to you.
00:23:38
◼
►
Wealthfront is an SEC registered investment advisor.
00:23:41
◼
►
Brokerage services are offered through Wealthfront Brokerage
00:23:43
◼
►
Corporation, member FINRA and SIPC.
00:23:47
◼
►
This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
00:23:51
◼
►
Investing in securities involves risks,
00:23:52
◼
►
and there is the possibility of losing money.
00:23:55
◼
►
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
00:23:57
◼
►
Please visit Wealthfront.com to read their full disclosure.
00:24:03
◼
►
So here's, so you didn't get there till Monday,
00:24:07
◼
►
you're saying?
00:24:08
◼
►
- That's right, Monday night.
00:24:10
◼
►
- So what did you do on Tuesday?
00:24:11
◼
►
- Tuesday, I woke up too early and got breakfast
00:24:16
◼
►
and then we went to this meeting
00:24:21
◼
►
where Mike wore the exoskeleton and it was--
00:24:24
◼
►
- How did you set that meeting up?
00:24:26
◼
►
That's one of my worries is that I would go there
00:24:28
◼
►
and without having set anything up
00:24:30
◼
►
and I don't have like, I don't have anybody
00:24:32
◼
►
set stuff up for me and then I'd get out there and I'd just, you know, end up playing blackjack
00:24:36
◼
►
See, that would be fun. I would like to play blackjack with you all day because as we'll
00:24:40
◼
►
discuss in a minute, I did not play any blackjack. Uh, so which is, which is not excusable. I
00:24:46
◼
►
don't see that again. I don't see how that's possible. I know. So, so here's, here's the
00:24:51
◼
►
worst part of CES. When you sign up for a press badge, your email gets given to all
00:24:59
◼
►
the 3000 or whatever, 2000 companies that have, uh, signed up to exhibit and you get
00:25:06
◼
►
emails from about half of them.
00:25:08
◼
►
I'm not even exaggerating.
00:25:10
◼
►
Like I, this year I was smart and I, I did the Gmail thing where you can add a plus sign.
00:25:16
◼
►
So I made it, you know, Dan plus ces@qz.com so I could filter there now all filtering
00:25:22
◼
►
into the toilet.
00:25:23
◼
►
Like I'm not getting the people are still sending emails.
00:25:26
◼
►
They're good for them, but I'm not seeing any of them.
00:25:29
◼
►
So you get, you're overwhelmed for weeks.
00:25:32
◼
►
- I know about that trick.
00:25:33
◼
►
I just wanna just, I mean, hold you there.
00:25:35
◼
►
Is that it instantly popped into my head.
00:25:38
◼
►
I mean, it's like if I was the type of dirtbag
00:25:40
◼
►
who ran like a PR, well, PR people aren't dirtbags,
00:25:43
◼
►
but if I was about to start sending email to those people,
00:25:45
◼
►
I would write like a little script
00:25:47
◼
►
that takes any Gmail address with the plus
00:25:49
◼
►
and take out the plus, you know what I mean?
00:25:52
◼
►
Like it would be so easy to algorithmically filter that out.
00:25:55
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, I'm sure some,
00:25:57
◼
►
a couple of people remarked on it.
00:25:59
◼
►
They were like, oh, clever with the plus sign or whatever.
00:26:02
◼
►
I mean, I get a lot of email from PR people as it is.
00:26:05
◼
►
And I'm actually, I would say pretty fair
00:26:09
◼
►
about just asking people not to send me
00:26:11
◼
►
certain types of email.
00:26:12
◼
►
- I find it so hard like at a convention or conference
00:26:15
◼
►
or something like that.
00:26:16
◼
►
I'm terrible at staying on top of my email
00:26:18
◼
►
on a normal day when I'm at my desk,
00:26:19
◼
►
but it's really, I always fall behind.
00:26:21
◼
►
And so to have them making it even harder
00:26:24
◼
►
to just keep an eyeball on what's coming into my email
00:26:28
◼
►
would be terrible.
00:26:29
◼
►
- The problem for me is that I've now been at inbox zero
00:26:33
◼
►
for four years, which means all day
00:26:36
◼
►
I'm constantly deleting emails.
00:26:38
◼
►
I don't let them pile up anymore.
00:26:41
◼
►
So anyway, so I would get invited to everything
00:26:46
◼
►
from like tours to meetings to press conferences
00:26:50
◼
►
and that kind of stuff.
00:26:51
◼
►
And I accepted, I think, five or six of the,
00:26:55
◼
►
I don't know, roughly a thousand that I got.
00:27:00
◼
►
- And those came, but just to be clear,
00:27:02
◼
►
those came long before the show even started
00:27:06
◼
►
because it starts when you actually register with CES
00:27:09
◼
►
like in November or whatever.
00:27:11
◼
►
- Yes. - Okay.
00:27:13
◼
►
- Yeah, so, you know, and some of them are like party
00:27:16
◼
►
invites, some of the stuff doesn't come until
00:27:19
◼
►
Um, you know, the week before or a couple of days before, but a lot of the companies
00:27:25
◼
►
are, you know, trying to set up as many meetings as possible.
00:27:29
◼
►
You can also kind of check what, what topics you're interested in.
00:27:32
◼
►
And I think I was probably a little too excited about checking lots of different topics that
00:27:37
◼
►
I should not have like audio, you know, you check off audio and then every headphone company
00:27:43
◼
►
is emailing you asking for a meeting and that kind of stuff.
00:27:45
◼
►
So I think next year I'll probably be more selective about that and do even fewer meetings.
00:27:54
◼
►
If you need to get a last minute meeting, they're pretty much always available.
00:27:58
◼
►
The stuff that's really cool is going to be kind of hard to access anyway and those are
00:28:02
◼
►
the people who are least likely to set stuff up with you ahead of time unless you're the
00:28:09
◼
►
the verge or something like that.
00:28:10
◼
►
Um, who get first dibs on a lot of stuff.
00:28:14
◼
►
Uh, so yeah, I set all that stuff up and so what else I Tuesday, you know, I had
00:28:20
◼
►
a couple of meetings and, uh, I had lunch and then I went to, uh, a dinner probably.
00:28:28
◼
►
And then met up with people.
00:28:30
◼
►
Oh, Tuesday, I went to a party and probably stayed out late and yeah.
00:28:36
◼
►
And, uh, that's when I saw Rupert Murdoch.
00:28:38
◼
►
That was kind of interesting.
00:28:40
◼
►
And so where was he?
00:28:42
◼
►
He was just walking down the hall of the wind.
00:28:44
◼
►
That's where he stayed.
00:28:46
◼
►
So I actually wrote this article.
00:28:49
◼
►
So, so one thing I didn't know, uh, and I thought it was going to be, I thought
00:28:53
◼
►
it was going to be a bigger surprise to people then it turned out to be no one
00:28:56
◼
►
really cared, but, um, so Eddie Q was at CES, Eddie Q you wrote an article on this.
00:29:04
◼
►
Oh, I didn't see it.
00:29:05
◼
►
Eddie Q is at CES speaking at Rupert Murdoch's private mini conference, which
00:29:11
◼
►
he holds in his suite every year.
00:29:13
◼
►
It's two days and he brings in like a fantastic list of people.
00:29:17
◼
►
Um, and it's not for the public or anything.
00:29:20
◼
►
It's for news Corp and Fox executives.
00:29:24
◼
►
And this year, the people who were scheduled to present range from the CEO
00:29:29
◼
►
of Snapchat to, uh, Sundar from Google, CEO of Google, uh, Eddie
00:29:35
◼
►
Q from Apple and a bunch, just a bunch of other, like the guy from salesforce.com,
00:29:41
◼
►
a bunch of other really high level, uh, Benedict Evans from Andreessen,
00:29:45
◼
►
Horowitz, some, some startup people.
00:29:47
◼
►
And, um, so that's cool.
00:29:49
◼
►
And I, you know, that's the kind of thing where it's like, there's
00:29:52
◼
►
this whole huge CES thing going on.
00:29:54
◼
►
Meanwhile, in Rupert Murdoch suite, there's like the best, you know, one of
00:29:59
◼
►
the best conference lineups in the world.
00:30:01
◼
►
And it's just for like a handful of top executives who work for him.
00:30:06
◼
►
But that's the kind of thing you can do at CES because so many of those people
00:30:09
◼
►
are there anyway.
00:30:10
◼
►
Uh, although it was interesting because of course, Apple somewhat famously does
00:30:14
◼
►
not have an official presence at CES.
00:30:17
◼
►
Uh, my guess is that, you know, some people from Apple go just to kind of look
00:30:22
◼
►
at stuff, there'll be kind of silly not to, um, I know for a fact that it, and
00:30:26
◼
►
even when Mac world was a thing and it was coincident that there were people
00:30:31
◼
►
from the product marketing group who went every year
00:30:34
◼
►
just to do the due diligence of walking around.
00:30:36
◼
►
And the question was always whether,
00:30:39
◼
►
what they would put on their badge.
00:30:41
◼
►
And most of the time I think they just would officially go
00:30:44
◼
►
and they'd have Apple on the badge
00:30:45
◼
►
and if people wanted to talk them up, they'd do it.
00:30:47
◼
►
They just didn't,
00:30:47
◼
►
it wasn't real cloak and dagger stuff, they just,
00:30:51
◼
►
but they were there to just see what else
00:30:54
◼
►
the industry's doing.
00:30:56
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, it'd be foolish not to.
00:30:59
◼
►
I think that someone was telling me
00:31:00
◼
►
that they saw a couple Apple people this year
00:31:05
◼
►
just walking around, but I wasn't there for that.
00:31:08
◼
►
- Yeah, I wouldn't even be surprised
00:31:09
◼
►
if it's actually multiple teams,
00:31:10
◼
►
like different, not even in coordination,
00:31:13
◼
►
the product marketing people there are just there in general
00:31:16
◼
►
but maybe notebook engineers are there
00:31:18
◼
►
just to look at all the crazy notebooks
00:31:21
◼
►
that are being put together.
00:31:23
◼
►
- Yeah, I would and then you get to be in Vegas.
00:31:28
◼
►
- And maybe run into Rupert Murdoch.
00:31:30
◼
►
He looked good, he was wearing a nice suit
00:31:32
◼
►
and some sneakers, walking down the hallway
00:31:36
◼
►
outside of a party that I was leaving.
00:31:39
◼
►
- So it was just like in the hotel, you mean?
00:31:41
◼
►
Like a hallway?
00:31:42
◼
►
- Yes, in the Wynn, outside of one of their
00:31:44
◼
►
like nightclub-y type venues.
00:31:49
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean-- - What time of day was that?
00:31:51
◼
►
- This was around, I think, 11 p.m. or 10 something p.m.
00:31:59
◼
►
See, that's why you go to CES.
00:32:01
◼
►
Yeah, actually, I'll never forget.
00:32:03
◼
►
One of my, when I worked at Forbes,
00:32:05
◼
►
now almost 10 years ago,
00:32:07
◼
►
one of my colleagues wrote an article about,
00:32:10
◼
►
actually it may have been CES 10 years ago
00:32:13
◼
►
where she was randomly at a booth
00:32:16
◼
►
when Bill Gates showed up to look at the booth,
00:32:19
◼
►
and what an interesting and cool experience that was.
00:32:22
◼
►
Like, can you imagine being the tiny booth operator
00:32:25
◼
►
and then yoink, Bill Gates walks up and says,
00:32:28
◼
►
"Hey, give me a demo."
00:32:31
◼
►
I'll have to find that article.
00:32:32
◼
►
I wonder if Forbes has archived that.
00:32:34
◼
►
- Have you ever worked at trade show booth?
00:32:36
◼
►
- I don't think so.
00:32:40
◼
►
When I was a kid, my dad, I think,
00:32:42
◼
►
had a booth or like a part of one at some point
00:32:45
◼
►
for a store he was involved in,
00:32:46
◼
►
but I never had to work a booth.
00:32:49
◼
►
- I did when I worked at Barebones software
00:32:52
◼
►
for BB Edit and I guess MailSmith even at the time.
00:32:54
◼
►
But we'd have a booth at Macworld,
00:32:56
◼
►
and it is grueling.
00:32:59
◼
►
Sometimes though, it could be like, I don't know,
00:33:03
◼
►
it's like three in the afternoon
00:33:04
◼
►
and you've been on your feet since nine
00:33:06
◼
►
and you've been making the same pitch over and over again.
00:33:09
◼
►
And you know, repetition has never been good for me.
00:33:12
◼
►
I mean, not that I'm not good at it,
00:33:13
◼
►
but I get bored quickly.
00:33:15
◼
►
But then all of a sudden, like you meet somebody
00:33:17
◼
►
and somebody will tell you this amazing story
00:33:18
◼
►
of how like BB Edit, you know,
00:33:20
◼
►
saved their website or something like that.
00:33:22
◼
►
And they just want to thank you
00:33:24
◼
►
and you're just like, oh my God, that's amazing.
00:33:26
◼
►
and he made my day, you know.
00:33:27
◼
►
Let me go get Rich Segal, and you can tell it to his face.
00:33:30
◼
►
- That's great.
00:33:31
◼
►
- But boy, it is hard, it is really hard.
00:33:35
◼
►
And you can just see it.
00:33:36
◼
►
Now it's just a funny thing to have
00:33:39
◼
►
under my belt this experience.
00:33:40
◼
►
And now whenever I'm at a trade show and I walk around,
00:33:42
◼
►
I have a sympathy for every single person
00:33:46
◼
►
doing those, you know, working those booths
00:33:48
◼
►
that I wouldn't have had otherwise.
00:33:50
◼
►
- Yeah, it's grueling, and you have like
00:33:52
◼
►
trade show approved vendors
00:33:55
◼
►
that you have to do everything with,
00:33:56
◼
►
and good luck, there's a 20 minute line for the bathroom.
00:34:01
◼
►
- So what else, what else did you do at CES?
00:34:07
◼
►
- Oh, I hung out with Walt Mossberg, that was a highlight.
00:34:12
◼
►
- I saw that. - That's when you were
00:34:14
◼
►
texting me. - I saw a periscope.
00:34:16
◼
►
This is my perspective, it's,
00:34:18
◼
►
oh, I think it might have been maybe like 1230 at night,
00:34:23
◼
►
east coast time so would have been maybe like 930 Vegas that sound about right?
00:34:27
◼
►
I think so yeah. And I saw somebody who I follow on Twitter from the Verge
00:34:31
◼
►
tweeted a link to Periscope that they're Periscoping from
00:34:35
◼
►
inside a blinged out a crazy blinged out limo that
00:34:39
◼
►
Neelay had rented for some unknown reason. And I thought I gotta see this because I
00:34:44
◼
►
don't know I know what a regular
00:34:46
◼
►
limo looks like I gotta see what like a special you know
00:34:49
◼
►
call attention to it limo looks like so I put the Periscope on and it's a
00:34:53
◼
►
and a couple of other people I knew from The Verge.
00:34:56
◼
►
And the inside of this limo, it really was like,
00:34:58
◼
►
it was like all the leftover neon from old Las Vegas
00:35:02
◼
►
was all inside this limo.
00:35:04
◼
►
- Basically.
00:35:05
◼
►
- And then the Periscope is painting around
00:35:07
◼
►
and here's Verge staffers,
00:35:08
◼
►
and I was just about ready to disconnect
00:35:10
◼
►
'cause it's a buoyant.
00:35:11
◼
►
And then I see a guy and I was like,
00:35:12
◼
►
holy shit, that one guy looks like Dan Fromer.
00:35:14
◼
►
And I was like, who is that?
00:35:15
◼
►
And then they're like, and we've got Dan from Quartz,
00:35:18
◼
►
and I'm like, holy shit, it is Dan Fromer.
00:35:20
◼
►
And I was like, wow, now it's like,
00:35:22
◼
►
Now I have a friend in the limo, now I'm interested.
00:35:25
◼
►
And I noticed, it seemed to me like everybody
00:35:27
◼
►
was a little tipsy and you were like just totally normal.
00:35:30
◼
►
And then it got crazier because then it got
00:35:35
◼
►
to the far side of this, it was a truly massive limo.
00:35:38
◼
►
And then all of a sudden, Walt Mossberg
00:35:39
◼
►
and Kara Swisher were in there.
00:35:41
◼
►
- Yeah, they were riding in the back seat.
00:35:44
◼
►
- And I was fascinated.
00:35:47
◼
►
What were you guys doing?
00:35:49
◼
►
You guys were on your way from like one end of the strip
00:35:52
◼
►
to the other?
00:35:53
◼
►
- We were all at a dinner that they have
00:35:57
◼
►
usually the last night or one of the last nights every year,
00:36:02
◼
►
a kind of a press dinner.
00:36:04
◼
►
And I guess we were all going to the Cosmopolitan
00:36:09
◼
►
where there was a Twitter Spotify party.
00:36:12
◼
►
And rather than taking four cabs,
00:36:15
◼
►
Neil, I think threw his hands up and said,
00:36:17
◼
►
"Let's get a limo."
00:36:18
◼
►
So I just went in the limo.
00:36:21
◼
►
Um, and uh, yeah, that was it.
00:36:24
◼
►
I mean, it wasn't, uh, I don't think it was preplanned or anything.
00:36:28
◼
►
It just happened.
00:36:28
◼
►
It was funny though.
00:36:30
◼
►
I did, but it's the sort of thing that happens when, like, what do you say on a
00:36:34
◼
►
Periscope when they, when they put the camera in your face, I never know what to
00:36:38
◼
►
I never, I don't know what to say.
00:36:39
◼
►
It was, it was funny though.
00:36:40
◼
►
I am, I'm like, there were like 300 people watching.
00:36:43
◼
►
I enjoy Periscope.
00:36:45
◼
►
I, but I'm, it, it, it, it requires a certain personality that I, I, I am not in
00:36:50
◼
►
in possession of to really be good at it.
00:36:53
◼
►
- I haven't done, I don't think I've ever done one.
00:36:57
◼
►
- The other problem I have with it,
00:36:58
◼
►
and last time I tried using it,
00:36:59
◼
►
I think I tried using it when the Pope was in town here
00:37:02
◼
►
in Philly and I was doing some periscopes walking around
00:37:05
◼
►
at the crazy ways that they'd shut down
00:37:09
◼
►
enormous major thoroughfares in Philly,
00:37:12
◼
►
which created this, it was awesome,
00:37:13
◼
►
but it's like you had these like six, seven lane streets
00:37:18
◼
►
that were entirely free of cars, not even like parked cars.
00:37:21
◼
►
It was great.
00:37:21
◼
►
But the problem for me is I've got so many Twitter followers
00:37:25
◼
►
that I easily overflow the limits of Periscope,
00:37:28
◼
►
even just for something like that.
00:37:30
◼
►
- Did you recently join Snapchat?
00:37:36
◼
►
- I did, that was me.
00:37:38
◼
►
- That was you?
00:37:40
◼
►
- Okay, I was like, oh, that's weird.
00:37:42
◼
►
- Do you understand Snapchat?
00:37:43
◼
►
- No, no, and someone was, and this,
00:37:46
◼
►
I'm not that old, but I sound like it.
00:37:48
◼
►
I mean, someone was, was showing it to me the other day and, uh, I have not,
00:37:53
◼
►
I don't think I've ever posted anything.
00:37:55
◼
►
Cause I just don't really know what to post or, or how, I guess the whole idea
00:38:00
◼
►
is that it's kind of very raw, uncut, like spur of the moment life through
00:38:05
◼
►
your eyes, whereas I'm more of a retouch edit, like frame the perfect, uh,
00:38:11
◼
►
in, you know, I'd say I'm more of an Instagram person than a Snapchat person.
00:38:16
◼
►
You need to I my understanding of snapchat previously was that it was
00:38:21
◼
►
like texting service where everything was ephemeral and nothing gets saved and
00:38:26
◼
►
Everybody had you can send dick pics
00:38:28
◼
►
but people did use it for that but then like teenagers could use it and send like
00:38:33
◼
►
Love notes to each other and know that there are going to be disappeared by the next day and that
00:38:38
◼
►
That made sense to me and I felt like I understand what this product does and I'm not a teenager anymore
00:38:44
◼
►
I have no I have no need for it. So I didn't know but then I've hurt now
00:38:47
◼
►
It's more like a social network and I see what turned me on to it was do you know who Gary for Vaynerchuk is? Yes
00:38:53
◼
►
Gary Vaynerchuk has been raving about it lately and he's been saying that he hasn't been this excited about something since Twitter circa
00:39:02
◼
►
2007 and he really was I do remember that's when I first met Gary and Gary was huge on Twitter in like 2006-2007
00:39:09
◼
►
Said this thing is gonna blow up. It's gonna be huge
00:39:11
◼
►
everybody's going to be on Twitter. And he was right. And so that him saying that this is how
00:39:16
◼
►
he feels about Snapchat made me think, well, I should sign up for this and see if I can figure
00:39:21
◼
►
it out. And so I did. And there's a part of the process where it's like, do you want us to, you
00:39:25
◼
►
know, notify, you know, here's people, you know, if from your address book, do you want to follow
00:39:31
◼
►
them? And I did. And you're, you're not the first person who's asked, is this really you?
00:39:35
◼
►
Because it, I guess it seems a little surprising that I would sign up for Snapchat.
00:39:40
◼
►
- Well, it was also under the name of the site
00:39:42
◼
►
and not as your name.
00:39:44
◼
►
- Oh, right, and that was because...
00:39:46
◼
►
- You might be a little late to get the Gruber name on.
00:39:50
◼
►
- Yeah, I couldn't get it,
00:39:52
◼
►
and all the variations on Gruber weren't there.
00:39:55
◼
►
And I also had the notion that if it does become a thing,
00:40:00
◼
►
maybe it would be more of a daring fireball thing
00:40:02
◼
►
than a personal thing.
00:40:04
◼
►
- Yeah, it actually would not be,
00:40:06
◼
►
it's kind of like Periscope in the same way.
00:40:09
◼
►
It's like, here's a kind of unedited view of life,
00:40:14
◼
►
maybe from the WWDC press bullpen or something like that.
00:40:18
◼
►
- Yeah, that's exactly what I was saying.
00:40:20
◼
►
But I didn't even get the right
00:40:20
◼
►
Daring Fireball name either, right?
00:40:22
◼
►
- Oh, really?
00:40:23
◼
►
- I think there's like,
00:40:24
◼
►
I had to put like a dash in it or something.
00:40:25
◼
►
I don't know, because some,
00:40:26
◼
►
I don't know who the shitbag is,
00:40:27
◼
►
but some jerk has Daring Fireball.
00:40:30
◼
►
Like that can't possibly be legit.
00:40:33
◼
►
Like whoever it is stole it from me.
00:40:35
◼
►
- Well, did you see on Peach?
00:40:38
◼
►
Have you used Peach yet?
00:40:39
◼
►
- Yeah, I'm on the Peach.
00:40:41
◼
►
- I'm on the Peach.
00:40:43
◼
►
Someone has, Casey Johnston got P. Marka,
00:40:47
◼
►
so she's (laughs)
00:40:49
◼
►
Peaching it up.
00:40:51
◼
►
- Is she really?
00:40:52
◼
►
- Is she masquerading as--
00:40:57
◼
►
- I think just the username.
00:41:00
◼
►
I actually haven't looked at it in a couple days, so.
00:41:03
◼
►
- The Peach is really weird, I think.
00:41:06
◼
►
So what happened, for anybody who missed this, and trust me, if you did, you're not really
00:41:11
◼
►
missing anything.
00:41:12
◼
►
It was like over the weekend, I think it was over the weekend, but within the last few
00:41:15
◼
►
days, all of a sudden, everybody on Twitter is talking about a new social network called
00:41:19
◼
►
And in fact, the fact that I just tried to get my name on Snapchat and couldn't, I do
00:41:24
◼
►
have this habit where if I hear of a new social network, even if I think there's a very low
00:41:27
◼
►
chance I want to do it, I'll quick sign up to try to get a username that I want.
00:41:31
◼
►
And so I signed up for this peach and it's as best as I can figure out it.
00:41:36
◼
►
Number one, I don't quite get it,
00:41:38
◼
►
but as best as I can figure out is it sort of like Twitter,
00:41:41
◼
►
except that instead of getting a timeline,
00:41:44
◼
►
you have to go to each single,
00:41:46
◼
►
every single person you follow individually to see what they're up to.
00:41:49
◼
►
And it's a poor idea for a social network implemented in a,
00:41:55
◼
►
uh, a very poorly made and designed app. Like the buttons in the app don't,
00:42:00
◼
►
you tap the button and there's no visual indication
00:42:03
◼
►
that you've tapped it.
00:42:04
◼
►
There's no highlight.
00:42:05
◼
►
And to make it even worse, nothing happens sometimes.
00:42:09
◼
►
And then you tap it again and it's gone
00:42:12
◼
►
because whatever it is that you tapped to do before,
00:42:14
◼
►
it took three seconds and then it went away.
00:42:17
◼
►
It's a very, very shitty app.
00:42:18
◼
►
- It's interesting.
00:42:22
◼
►
I mean, it's actually, as Twitter starts to add more,
00:42:28
◼
►
I don't know what you would call them, formats or something, media types to Twitter.
00:42:32
◼
►
This is kind of like, you know, going a giant leap ahead of that because you can make drawings,
00:42:37
◼
►
you can make animations, you can add photos.
00:42:42
◼
►
But the timeline is weird.
00:42:43
◼
►
It's not a timeline of posts, it's a timeline of people.
00:42:48
◼
►
So one of the more interesting analyses I read, basically said, you know, you're incentivized
00:42:56
◼
►
to just post as much as possible because then you'll always be at the top of the
00:42:59
◼
►
timeline and you know, you won't be spamming people in the sense that they'll
00:43:03
◼
►
see 20 of your posts in a row, but.
00:43:05
◼
►
You know, you'll always be the person at the top of the timeline
00:43:09
◼
►
and that might get annoying.
00:43:10
◼
►
I don't know.
00:43:11
◼
►
It's uh, I don't think it's worth talking about much more.
00:43:15
◼
►
No, let's not, as with any new social network, most of the posts, well, not
00:43:19
◼
►
most, but many of the posts are about peach itself, so we'll see if it gets beyond
00:43:24
◼
►
that. What's interesting about it is that it's made by one of the people who made
00:43:29
◼
►
it is the guy who made vine. So that's the only reason it got any kind of
00:43:34
◼
►
traction because vine is a real thing and there's real people who are you know
00:43:38
◼
►
using it happily and it's it you know but I don't think this is a fine or
00:43:42
◼
►
unless it they somehow quote-unquote pivot and invent a new something new
00:43:47
◼
►
that you can do with this that's different than what this is yeah it's
00:43:51
◼
►
always dangerous to say like there's been too many of there's been too many
00:43:54
◼
►
social networks because I'm sure someone said there were too many search engines, um, right
00:44:00
◼
►
before Google came out. So, you know, who knows what's actually going to happen, but it seems like
00:44:05
◼
►
this is one of those things where it's just not different enough to really justify putting too
00:44:11
◼
►
much time and effort into, um, maybe it'll catch on among some like path was huge in Singapore or
00:44:19
◼
►
or something or Indonesia or wherever.
00:44:22
◼
►
But yeah, we'll stop talking about Peach now.
00:44:28
◼
►
- All right, well, we'll stop talking about Peach
00:44:30
◼
►
and start talking about our next sponsor
00:44:33
◼
►
and it's our good friends at Squarespace.
00:44:36
◼
►
You guys know Squarespace.
00:44:37
◼
►
It's the all-in-one service that lets you,
00:44:41
◼
►
handles everything you need to have your own website.
00:44:44
◼
►
They do the hosting, they have the templates
00:44:48
◼
►
that you can use to start.
00:44:50
◼
►
You just start with a website that is gorgeous,
00:44:54
◼
►
but, and they have templates for all sorts
00:44:56
◼
►
of different types of websites.
00:44:58
◼
►
If you're setting up an online store,
00:45:00
◼
►
they have a whole bunch of store designs to choose from.
00:45:02
◼
►
If you're setting up a portfolio,
00:45:03
◼
►
because let's say maybe you're a designer
00:45:06
◼
►
and you wanna create a new portfolio site
00:45:09
◼
►
to show off your work, they've got examples of that.
00:45:12
◼
►
It's really, really easy.
00:45:15
◼
►
And it is so far beyond any kind of website,
00:45:18
◼
►
Even if you're thinking that you're gonna have to design it
00:45:22
◼
►
or program it from scratch,
00:45:24
◼
►
the old fashioned traditional way,
00:45:25
◼
►
the stick shift way, if you will,
00:45:27
◼
►
the manual transition where you're writing the code
00:45:30
◼
►
and designing it and doing the HTML
00:45:32
◼
►
or maybe it's the programming,
00:45:33
◼
►
you really ought to think about trying it first
00:45:36
◼
►
with Squarespace,
00:45:37
◼
►
even if you can think of it as a prototype.
00:45:39
◼
►
And for a lot of different types of sites,
00:45:41
◼
►
you'd be very surprised just how far you can go.
00:45:44
◼
►
And you may not need to build a website.
00:45:46
◼
►
You really can just use Squarespace.
00:45:50
◼
►
I was actually looking around with it recently.
00:45:52
◼
►
Because I thought these guys sponsor the show all the time, and I haven't looked at it in
00:45:57
◼
►
And I know they had a major new version last weekend, so I tried building, just to spend
00:46:01
◼
►
like an hour building a little store design.
00:46:04
◼
►
And I was blown away by how much improved it is from the way Squarespace used to be.
00:46:08
◼
►
Just how much more it feels like you're working in, even though you're in a browser doing
00:46:13
◼
►
all this stuff. It really feels like you're in like an app, like a design app, doing these
00:46:18
◼
►
things. Really, really impressive. Where do you go to find out more? Easy. Go to squarespace.com
00:46:24
◼
►
and you'll get a free trial, no credit card required. And then when you do pay, when the
00:46:30
◼
►
free trial is up and you want to keep the site and keep it going, just remember the
00:46:33
◼
►
offer code GRUBER, my last name, G-R-U-B-E-R, and you will get 10% off your first purchase.
00:46:40
◼
►
That could be a lot of dough because if you pay for a whole year at a time, uh, the 10%
00:46:45
◼
►
can apply right to that.
00:46:47
◼
►
So, uh, my thanks to Squarespace, build it beautiful.
00:46:52
◼
►
One more thing I want to say about CES now, now having been twice, all the, you know,
00:46:58
◼
►
this was a different apple that back then it was, it was smaller and, you know, still,
00:47:03
◼
►
I would say maybe a little more mysterious, but all the so-called rumors and like calls
00:47:08
◼
►
for Apple to headline CES and all that stuff.
00:47:13
◼
►
That was just completely idiotic.
00:47:16
◼
►
Even now more in hindsight than it seemed then.
00:47:19
◼
►
There's no way that Apple is going to waste their time trying to have any sort of signal
00:47:25
◼
►
among the noise at CES.
00:47:27
◼
►
There's absolutely no reason for them to do that.
00:47:30
◼
►
And just even halfway believing that that could have happened back then just seems completely
00:47:35
◼
►
foolish now.
00:47:37
◼
►
I miss Macworld and I really do and its heyday was great.
00:47:42
◼
►
And it was for exactly what you said though.
00:47:44
◼
►
It's that it was a way,
00:47:46
◼
►
the main reason was just the fact that everybody
00:47:48
◼
►
who covered Apple or worked in Apple related things
00:47:51
◼
►
was all in San Francisco at the exact same time,
00:47:55
◼
►
which was great.
00:47:56
◼
►
And then secondarily, it was great.
00:47:58
◼
►
It was actually great.
00:47:58
◼
►
So every year I'd find one or two things,
00:48:01
◼
►
new companies of making products
00:48:03
◼
►
that I didn't know otherwise.
00:48:05
◼
►
And even in the internet era, when that became a lot easier,
00:48:10
◼
►
to find little companies that are from oddball locations
00:48:14
◼
►
around the world, it still always happened.
00:48:18
◼
►
But I totally understand why Apple pulled the plug
00:48:20
◼
►
on their involvement in Macworld,
00:48:21
◼
►
which was way less involved than it would have been
00:48:23
◼
►
if they'd gone to CES, right?
00:48:25
◼
►
'Cause Macworld, especially the San Francisco one,
00:48:28
◼
►
which was the last show, was local to them.
00:48:30
◼
►
And the entire show revolved around their ecosystem.
00:48:35
◼
►
But I totally understand why they got away from it.
00:48:39
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised
00:48:40
◼
►
if like someone took a meeting with someone from CEA
00:48:44
◼
►
or whatever and heard them out.
00:48:46
◼
►
But there's just no, Apple can command as much attention
00:48:51
◼
►
as it gets on its own.
00:48:53
◼
►
Why would it participate in something
00:48:56
◼
►
that's gonna be super noisy and not focused?
00:49:00
◼
►
- Yeah, and the thing, and Apple, I think,
00:49:03
◼
►
actually was upfront about this.
00:49:04
◼
►
I think when they stopped, they publicly said,
00:49:07
◼
►
this is the last time we're gonna do a Macworld keynote.
00:49:10
◼
►
It was the year that,
00:49:13
◼
►
it was the year when Steve Jobs fell ill again
00:49:18
◼
►
and ended up going on a medical leave.
00:49:21
◼
►
And he, you know, they announced like his medical leave,
00:49:24
◼
►
I forget, it was like December, January.
00:49:26
◼
►
But they said that, you know--
00:49:30
◼
►
- Very messily, if you recall.
00:49:33
◼
►
it was handled very poorly, probably because of Steve.
00:49:36
◼
►
You know, that it was his desire for privacy
00:49:40
◼
►
was in direct conflict with the company's need to,
00:49:44
◼
►
they, A, they were giving a keynote at Macworld Expo
00:49:47
◼
►
in early January, and B, you know,
00:49:50
◼
►
they have certain public obligations
00:49:51
◼
►
regarding the executive leadership.
00:49:53
◼
►
It was all very messy.
00:49:54
◼
►
It's all, you know, obviously it's a moot point now,
00:49:58
◼
►
but I remember though that it was announced
00:50:01
◼
►
that A, Phil Schiller will be giving the keynote
00:50:04
◼
►
at Macworld next month, and B,
00:50:06
◼
►
this will be the last keynote Apple ever gives
00:50:08
◼
►
at Macworld Expo.
00:50:09
◼
►
So they announced that before the Macworld Expo,
00:50:13
◼
►
which was, and some people took that as sort of a dick move
00:50:17
◼
►
'cause it kind of did cast a funereal feel
00:50:22
◼
►
to the whole thing, 'cause I mean, they were,
00:50:24
◼
►
they still had at least two more Macworlds after that,
00:50:26
◼
►
but everybody knew at this point
00:50:28
◼
►
that it was going to be a greatly diminished Macworld
00:50:31
◼
►
without Apple. But on the other hand, I kind of think, I don't know that it was a dick
00:50:34
◼
►
move pre-announcing that because I think it gave everybody a chance to soak it up and
00:50:39
◼
►
it maybe gave people who were like, "Eh, maybe I'll go, maybe I'll not go." It motivated
00:50:43
◼
►
them to, "Yeah, I better go."
00:50:44
◼
►
Yeah, that was the only year I went and it was really cool to be able to see it once.
00:50:54
◼
►
Anything else from CES?
00:50:56
◼
►
I don't think so.
00:50:57
◼
►
I mean, you know, I could go on forever.
00:51:00
◼
►
It was, it was really interesting.
00:51:01
◼
►
Um, it was fun.
00:51:03
◼
►
It was exhausting.
00:51:05
◼
►
And, uh, next year you're coming so we can, so someone will play blackjack with me.
00:51:09
◼
►
I can't believe you didn't play any blackjack.
00:51:11
◼
►
How do you not find time for blackjack?
00:51:13
◼
►
Cause it would be like 2 AM and I hadn't, you know, it was like,
00:51:16
◼
►
Oh, I guess I should go to sleep.
00:51:18
◼
►
Um, see, cause the people, you know, the people I was with, they either
00:51:22
◼
►
would just want to keep drinking or.
00:51:24
◼
►
I don't know.
00:51:26
◼
►
I actually don't know. And there's like some, I think it started ironically,
00:51:29
◼
►
but there's like a lot of the tech writers play pie gal poker, um,
00:51:34
◼
►
which I also didn't get to play. We were going to,
00:51:36
◼
►
and then I got separated from that group and I don't know if they ever did or
00:51:39
◼
►
not, but, um, anyway, next year.
00:51:44
◼
►
I'm starting to get a sense of how this could happen and why it's inexplicable
00:51:48
◼
►
how you can have like a four day trip to Vegas and not end up playing blackjack.
00:51:52
◼
►
And it sounds to me, and I know you, I think this is probably true.
00:51:55
◼
►
It seems to me that the difference is that you have at least a lick of common
00:51:59
◼
►
sense. I don't know. I don't know. I was, yeah,
00:52:05
◼
►
no, I would have liked to, uh, in like last year I was like, Oh,
00:52:10
◼
►
I'll just do it the last night. And then the last night it was like 1 am.
00:52:13
◼
►
I couldn't even put a hundred bucks on the Cubs to win the world series last
00:52:17
◼
►
year. Cause I ran out of time before the sports book closed.
00:52:19
◼
►
Oh, did you get it in this year? No. Or are they not taking,
00:52:23
◼
►
Are they not taking those yet?
00:52:24
◼
►
I don't know.
00:52:25
◼
►
I'm sure they're taking them.
00:52:28
◼
►
I don't know.
00:52:28
◼
►
I guess they probably could win this year.
00:52:30
◼
►
I didn't think they were going to win.
00:52:32
◼
►
I didn't think they were going to be even close last year.
00:52:34
◼
►
So they're going to be, I think they're going to be good.
00:52:36
◼
►
They're going to be good.
00:52:37
◼
►
Are they going to be the national league favorites?
00:52:40
◼
►
Could be because it's going to be cardinals have gotten worse.
00:52:44
◼
►
Cardinals have gotten more in the Mets.
00:52:45
◼
►
Come on the Mets.
00:52:46
◼
►
That was a fluke.
00:52:47
◼
►
The Mets have gotten worse already.
00:52:48
◼
►
The Mets have already lost, lost talent and I don't think they're going to sign
00:52:52
◼
►
They've met till have pitching and that's it and then the Dodgers are in turmoil, right?
00:52:58
◼
►
And nobody I don't think anybody knows what's gonna happen with the Dodgers and they're probably worse because they they lost
00:53:02
◼
►
What's his name the pitcher? Oh
00:53:04
◼
►
What's his name
00:53:09
◼
►
The guy who used to be on the Royals. Yeah, I forgot
00:53:12
◼
►
So anyway, I think your cubbies are gonna be I don't think you're gonna get good odds. Just could hear one
00:53:17
◼
►
- Yeah, that's the thing.
00:53:19
◼
►
- This could be the year where you get your Cubs
00:53:21
◼
►
win the World Series ticket
00:53:22
◼
►
and you end up winning like $600 on a $100 bet.
00:53:25
◼
►
- Not even, I think it's like four to one
00:53:27
◼
►
or something right now. - Wow.
00:53:28
◼
►
- I think last year was seven to one.
00:53:31
◼
►
- That just doesn't seem right.
00:53:32
◼
►
It seems like even when the Cubs have talent,
00:53:33
◼
►
the Cubs ought to have--
00:53:34
◼
►
- They're the Cubs.
00:53:36
◼
►
- Yeah, they're the Cubs.
00:53:37
◼
►
There ought to be like a,
00:53:38
◼
►
they're the Cubs discount on the tickets.
00:53:41
◼
►
And the same way with the Yankees
00:53:42
◼
►
that even when the Yankees look like
00:53:44
◼
►
they're not in a good spot,
00:53:45
◼
►
they don't really have it,
00:53:46
◼
►
The Yankees still should only be like eight to one
00:53:49
◼
►
every year, even if they have no chance.
00:53:52
◼
►
Because they're the Yankees.
00:53:53
◼
►
Like you shouldn't really, you should not be able
00:53:56
◼
►
to make a lot of money by betting on the Yankees
00:53:58
◼
►
to win the World Series.
00:53:58
◼
►
- No, that's practically cheating.
00:54:00
◼
►
- Right. (laughs)
00:54:02
◼
►
That's why I love them.
00:54:06
◼
►
It's like betting on the house.
00:54:08
◼
►
- Basically, yeah.
00:54:09
◼
►
- So anyway, basic gist of it, you go to CES,
00:54:13
◼
►
you go two days early or so,
00:54:14
◼
►
'cause you wanna hit these, the keynotes
00:54:16
◼
►
and the announcements and then you book two days,
00:54:19
◼
►
you stay there for two days to do the show floor.
00:54:22
◼
►
Can you do the whole show floor in two days?
00:54:25
◼
►
- You'll never get, you'll never do the whole thing.
00:54:28
◼
►
- You have to pick and choose.
00:54:29
◼
►
- Even we didn't get to talking about
00:54:31
◼
►
more than one tiny portion of it.
00:54:34
◼
►
There's the whole convention center,
00:54:35
◼
►
which is like the north, central and south halls,
00:54:38
◼
►
each of which have multiple zones.
00:54:41
◼
►
And then there's the West Gate too,
00:54:43
◼
►
which is something else I don't even know.
00:54:45
◼
►
I didn't even go to the West Gate.
00:54:47
◼
►
I don't know. - What the hell is that?
00:54:48
◼
►
- That's something else.
00:54:49
◼
►
It's like next door.
00:54:50
◼
►
- I've seen the sign.
00:54:53
◼
►
I don't even know what it is though.
00:54:54
◼
►
Is it like a hotel, casino?
00:54:56
◼
►
- Yeah, I think it's kind of a junky casino hotel
00:54:58
◼
►
with its own convention center.
00:55:00
◼
►
- And part of CES is in there.
00:55:03
◼
►
- I think it's so crazy.
00:55:06
◼
►
I'm going next year.
00:55:07
◼
►
- Yeah, you should.
00:55:08
◼
►
- I should book it. - Let's do it.
00:55:10
◼
►
- All right.
00:55:11
◼
►
- Stay somewhere nice though.
00:55:12
◼
►
- Well, I'll only stay at the Wynn.
00:55:14
◼
►
- Oh, well, all right.
00:55:15
◼
►
That might be pricey.
00:55:17
◼
►
- Might be. (laughs)
00:55:20
◼
►
- When I looked, well, when I looked at it,
00:55:21
◼
►
it had sold out, but I think before that,
00:55:23
◼
►
all right, we'll figure out how to do this early
00:55:26
◼
►
so that we don't get screwed, but.
00:55:28
◼
►
- I wonder what the, I know that they sell,
00:55:31
◼
►
I know that the Wynn and Encore sell out
00:55:33
◼
►
because they're, A, they're the best place on the strip,
00:55:36
◼
►
and B, it's, well, there's no ideal location,
00:55:40
◼
►
but it's about as close to ideal as you can get
00:55:43
◼
►
because it's right across the street from the Venetian and the Palazzo,
00:55:47
◼
►
which is the where the, the, the,
00:55:48
◼
►
that's the casino that's connected to the sands convention center.
00:55:52
◼
►
Yes. And so my guess is that the, you know, the first,
00:55:56
◼
►
like my hotels, the first night was $50 and the second,
00:56:00
◼
►
the third and fourth nights were $350. Wow.
00:56:05
◼
►
Yeah. It's like a huge,
00:56:06
◼
►
like just the difference between pre CES and
00:56:11
◼
►
Where did you stay?
00:56:13
◼
►
Well, I stayed at the Flamingo.
00:56:15
◼
►
Oh, that's right.
00:56:16
◼
►
You told me that.
00:56:17
◼
►
You did tell me that.
00:56:18
◼
►
And the Flamingo is not that great.
00:56:20
◼
►
It's a pretty good location.
00:56:22
◼
►
Yeah, it was well located, and it's on the monorail.
00:56:24
◼
►
So that was fine.
00:56:26
◼
►
It was fine.
00:56:26
◼
►
I mean, I stayed in the new tower, and it was fine.
00:56:30
◼
►
But hey, maybe next year by CES we'll
00:56:33
◼
►
have the Las Vegas City Notes so you'll
00:56:35
◼
►
know where to actually hang out.
00:56:39
◼
►
Well, I know where to hang out.
00:56:40
◼
►
Oh, you know where to hang it.
00:56:42
◼
►
I should probably write the Las Vegas city notes.
00:56:44
◼
►
Did you see, I relaunched it.
00:56:46
◼
►
No, you've been offline a lot.
00:56:48
◼
►
If you go to city notes.co, uh, you know, as, uh, I think I, you know, talked
00:56:54
◼
►
about it on the show before, but the, the idea was that I was making these
00:56:58
◼
►
apps where, um, if you go, if you're traveling to a city and you just want
00:57:02
◼
►
a short list of like the cool stuff where your cool friend would take you.
00:57:07
◼
►
and not the lame touristy stuff or like, you know, fancy, silly stuff.
00:57:13
◼
►
Um, did I would just have this list for you.
00:57:16
◼
►
And I did a New York one and I had a San Francisco one and these were iPhone
00:57:19
◼
►
apps that I was selling in the app store.
00:57:21
◼
►
And, um, it was, you know, long story short, it was cumbersome to make and,
00:57:28
◼
►
uh, and update these apps as apps.
00:57:31
◼
►
And it was also not really, you know, the paid app model has, uh, as you know,
00:57:36
◼
►
is not a great business model for for certain types of uh... of content so
00:57:41
◼
►
it's a website now it's city notes dot co i have a tokyo and a paris list up
00:57:46
◼
►
there and if you're going to those cities check 'em out
00:57:49
◼
►
and work on new york next and
00:57:52
◼
►
then probably los angeles and uh...
00:57:54
◼
►
you know it's working as a website it's like
00:57:57
◼
►
free for me to update and
00:57:59
◼
►
keep current and uh...
00:58:01
◼
►
we'll see what happens
00:58:02
◼
►
but interesting that's my little side project yeah i'm you know we'll see what
00:58:06
◼
►
We'll see what happens with it, but I just relaunched it about a month ago and so far
00:58:14
◼
►
What else is going on?
00:58:16
◼
►
Do you want to talk about this El Chapo?
00:58:21
◼
►
I haven't read the Sean Penn thing yet.
00:58:24
◼
►
I did, but I didn't finish it.
00:58:26
◼
►
It's like the stupidest thing.
00:58:28
◼
►
I couldn't remember which device I was reading it on, so I haven't gotten back to it.
00:58:32
◼
►
But I loved it.
00:58:33
◼
►
I thought it was fantastic.
00:58:34
◼
►
I really, really liked it.
00:58:36
◼
►
I'm going to read it tonight.
00:58:38
◼
►
I think it's one of the best pieces written by a non-writer.
00:58:42
◼
►
It's funny, it seems like maybe Rolling Stone...
00:58:46
◼
►
I'm not sure what the backstory is, and I don't know how much of this is out there,
00:58:49
◼
►
and I just don't know because I didn't finish the article yet.
00:58:52
◼
►
He visited him in October, and the article's coming out now, but it seems like maybe they
00:58:56
◼
►
felt like their hand was pressed when the authorities took El Chapo back into custody
00:59:01
◼
►
and they wanted to publish it.
00:59:03
◼
►
But it's clearly a very light editing pass, you know, in terms of it doesn't read like
00:59:11
◼
►
your typical Rolling Stone feature.
00:59:15
◼
►
A lot of Sean Penn's personality is infused in the prose, and I think he did a hell of
00:59:22
◼
►
There's certain touches that, as a writer, like, felt like, you know, a little over the
00:59:27
◼
►
the top like it's a little awkward in certain phrasing but for the most part
00:59:33
◼
►
though I really enjoy the visceral nature nature of the pros I think is
00:59:38
◼
►
just a tremendous read and it's just such a crazy idea you know it I kind of
00:59:45
◼
►
fascinated by Sean Penn you know he just does things that other people it just
00:59:49
◼
►
never occurs of to do right remember like with with the hurricane in New
00:59:54
◼
►
Orleans. What was that hurricane? What was it called? Katrina? Katrina. There's like,
00:59:59
◼
►
there's Sean Penn, like, in a rowboat saving people, you know, getting them off
01:00:05
◼
►
their roofs, you know, like, what the hell is Sean Penn doing on a rowboat in New
01:00:09
◼
►
Orleans? How did he get there? How do you get to a flooded city if you
01:00:13
◼
►
don't live there? You know, it's not like he's, he just went, you know, what a crazy
01:00:18
◼
►
idea to have is I'm gonna go meet the most notorious drug kingpin in the world
01:00:22
◼
►
today and write a story about it.
01:00:25
◼
►
Yeah, and a lot of the criticism has been that El Chapo...
01:00:31
◼
►
Chapo or Chapo?
01:00:32
◼
►
Well, I guess in Spanish you'd say Chapo.
01:00:37
◼
►
He was given editorial control, essentially,
01:00:39
◼
►
that he was allowed to make changes or at least reject the...
01:00:46
◼
►
It was submitted.
01:00:47
◼
►
The agreement was, we'll submit to you a manuscript,
01:00:51
◼
►
And if you have objections, we will take your objections.
01:00:54
◼
►
So a lot of people are saying, and, and whatever they said that he didn't make
01:00:59
◼
►
any changes or something like that.
01:01:00
◼
►
But a lot of people are criticizing that as, uh, you know, essentially, uh, you
01:01:05
◼
►
know, a press release from El Chapo, uh, written by Sean Penn submitted to rolling
01:01:11
◼
►
stone, which is, you know, historically a journalistic organization and they just
01:01:16
◼
►
go and run it.
01:01:17
◼
►
Um, I don't know.
01:01:19
◼
►
I think it's, I think it's, uh, that's kind of the time we're in where a lot of
01:01:23
◼
►
places are just publishing directly on medium and, uh, or on their websites
01:01:27
◼
►
or something like that, if you look at Elon Musk, he does the same thing.
01:01:31
◼
►
So I don't, you know, I, it would be a tough call if I were the editor of
01:01:35
◼
►
rolling stone, I think that if I were the publisher of rolling stone, I'd be very,
01:01:39
◼
►
like, very excited about this because it's certainly gotten them a lot of attention
01:01:43
◼
►
and probably a lot of web traffic.
01:01:44
◼
►
And, um, but it's interesting.
01:01:47
◼
►
Like, do you allow that? What do you...?
01:01:50
◼
►
Here's my take. And this is really what I wanted to talk about. It was that journalistic angle.
01:01:54
◼
►
I don't have a problem with it because right up front, that's how the article starts,
01:02:00
◼
►
is in italics, like it's an editor's note, it explains that situation entirely, which is that
01:02:06
◼
►
part of the deal for this entire thing before it started was an agreement that the article would be
01:02:11
◼
►
submitted to El Chapo's people for their approval. And it was, and they didn't make any changes.
01:02:17
◼
►
And so to me, the "what makes it okay" is the fact that they disclosed that in very clear language right up front.
01:02:25
◼
►
And that they sec... like, so the El Chapo people said, "We want to approve the article."
01:02:29
◼
►
And I think the Rolling Stone people said, "Okay, we'll do it, but we're going to explain what was approved."
01:02:36
◼
►
You know, "We're going to explain that this deal was in place, and we're going to say whether or not you changed anything."
01:02:43
◼
►
And so to me, obviously that's less than ideal. It'd be great if the El Chapo people just said you can write whatever you want,
01:02:49
◼
►
but obviously they weren't gonna let that happen. And so,
01:02:52
◼
►
yeah, the world is a better place that this article exists than if it didn't. Like it was, it's not like they had the option
01:02:59
◼
►
to do it without that arrangement.
01:03:01
◼
►
Right. The fact that it was disclosed to me makes it
01:03:05
◼
►
acceptable. Like I think the people who are objecting to it on a, like it's failing a certain purity test are being
01:03:13
◼
►
A lot of them are jealous that they didn't get the story, I think.
01:03:17
◼
►
I mean, the truth about this, there are no rules.
01:03:19
◼
►
It's not like there's a law or something that says that, you know, every, every
01:03:23
◼
►
article published anywhere must be vetted by something or something like that.
01:03:27
◼
►
I mean, uh, so whatever, uh, if, if you're jealous that your publication did not get
01:03:34
◼
►
the scoop on El Chapo from Sean Penn, um, I guess that sucks, but it is interesting.
01:03:40
◼
►
I think it's, I think it's cool.
01:03:42
◼
►
I want to read it. I saved it. I'm going to read it.
01:03:47
◼
►
I like the idea of getting kind of raw writing from non-traditional writers.
01:03:52
◼
►
I think that's really interesting.
01:03:54
◼
►
That to me is exactly what it feels like. And in terms of, well,
01:03:59
◼
►
the argument that this could just be a press release from El Chapo,
01:04:02
◼
►
obviously that's a risk. I mean,
01:04:04
◼
►
but you just read the article with an open mind and judge for yourself.
01:04:08
◼
►
And I having read most of the article would say it's definitely not the case.
01:04:11
◼
►
It doesn't whitewash over anything. It's really just sort of a first-person narrative. You are there. This is what it's like to try to get to this guy
01:04:18
◼
►
story. To me, it was just a good read.
01:04:22
◼
►
But I think you have to keep an open mind on something like that. And I also think that there's a certain
01:04:27
◼
►
sanctimoniousness among the professional journalists who like object to this on
01:04:32
◼
►
you know, this is not the way it's done by serious publications.
01:04:38
◼
►
is that those publications that have those rules, like if and I'm sure a lot of them really do have it codified, you know, like
01:04:44
◼
►
60 minutes does not allow the sources of a show to
01:04:49
◼
►
See it before it airs
01:04:52
◼
►
That's fine. That's you know, it's fine to have rules like that and it certainly does protect you from you know
01:04:58
◼
►
Accusations that you're you're currying favor with your subjects or something
01:05:02
◼
►
But those publications obviously they miss out on an awful lot of stuff that they're that these you know
01:05:07
◼
►
these rules and traditions keep them from getting. Exactly. And self-publishing, like
01:05:14
◼
►
you said, like how much stuff is going on medium these days. The world where, you know,
01:05:21
◼
►
in the old days, they could take a stance like that and the only people who could really
01:05:26
◼
►
get a story out were the ones who owned a printing press and had a million or two million
01:05:32
◼
►
in circulation, newspaper or magazine.
01:05:34
◼
►
You don't need that anymore, right?
01:05:37
◼
►
So anybody can handle two or three million people
01:05:40
◼
►
reading their site if they publish it on WordPress
01:05:43
◼
►
or Medium or something like that.
01:05:44
◼
►
And so they don't control the means of distribution anymore
01:05:51
◼
►
and they're sort of holding on,
01:05:53
◼
►
oh, you know, get me to the fainting couch.
01:05:55
◼
►
They let the subject pre-approve the story.
01:05:57
◼
►
It's this is, you know, I've got the vapor,
01:06:00
◼
►
somebody get the smelling salt. It's ridiculous. Yeah, it's fascinating. Dave
01:06:04
◼
►
Weiner actually wrote a good essay about this, making many of these same points
01:06:09
◼
►
and I totally agree. I mean, listen, I went to, you know, quote-unquote
01:06:14
◼
►
"professional journalism school." I mean, that's what my undergrad college was and
01:06:18
◼
►
I don't care. I think it's great that people can sell publish now. There's
01:06:23
◼
►
certain things that I won't do because that's the job I have, but
01:06:28
◼
►
But that's fine.
01:06:30
◼
►
I think the best thing you can do is be very clear about what happened and what didn't
01:06:34
◼
►
happen and it seems like that's what they did here.
01:06:40
◼
►
Dave Weiner has been thinking about these things since the invention of the web in the
01:06:46
◼
►
And I think he has a really interesting perspective on this stuff.
01:06:52
◼
►
And I think it is, to make a long story short, I think that institutional journalism, the
01:07:01
◼
►
capital J journalism, like you said, like going to actual journalism school and working
01:07:05
◼
►
at a long standing, you know, traditional publication, they've made things more complicated
01:07:12
◼
►
than it really is.
01:07:13
◼
►
They've set up this, this like, written and or unwritten list of rules of how it's done.
01:07:18
◼
►
Whereas the truth of it is, lowercase j journalism that anybody can conduct is, to me, fundamentally
01:07:27
◼
►
about getting the truth out there.
01:07:31
◼
►
Whether it's true facts or whether it's, in a lot of my writing, truly what I believe
01:07:37
◼
►
and think, my opinion, my honest opinion about how things are going, that's what it's all
01:07:41
◼
►
about and that's it.
01:07:42
◼
►
And so part of the truth could be like writing a disclaimer that says the subject of this
01:07:47
◼
►
the story had the following demands, and that's the truth.
01:07:51
◼
►
The truth is we had this arrangement, and now you know it.
01:07:53
◼
►
- Yeah, let's be honest, like the people with all the rules
01:07:58
◼
►
get stuff wrong all the time too, so.
01:08:00
◼
►
- Exactly. - It's not like
01:08:02
◼
►
they lead to perfection. - Right, and you know,
01:08:05
◼
►
and I love the New York Times.
01:08:06
◼
►
New York Times is one of my favorite newspapers,
01:08:09
◼
►
or it is my favorite newspaper, and it's its source
01:08:11
◼
►
that I read, I read something in the New York Times
01:08:13
◼
►
every single day.
01:08:14
◼
►
But, you know, and they exemplify
01:08:18
◼
►
that sort of traditional journalism,
01:08:19
◼
►
and they've had some absolutely terrible things
01:08:22
◼
►
in the last few decades, you know,
01:08:23
◼
►
with the Judy Miller reporting on the lead up
01:08:27
◼
►
to the Iraq War, and who was the guy they had,
01:08:31
◼
►
the serial fabulous, Jason-- - Oh, Jason, hmm.
01:08:36
◼
►
- Well, whatever his name was, Jason.
01:08:38
◼
►
You know-- - Jason Bourne?
01:08:40
◼
►
No, uh, it was a J A Y S O N too.
01:08:44
◼
►
Uh, Jason Blair.
01:08:46
◼
►
Jason Blair.
01:08:47
◼
►
So they had a reporter on the staff who it turns out had, uh, serially
01:08:51
◼
►
fabricated news reports.
01:08:53
◼
►
Uh, uh, you know, again, those rules are not a protection against
01:08:58
◼
►
things like that going wrong.
01:08:59
◼
►
And fundamentally in both of those cases, the problem is that it wasn't
01:09:02
◼
►
the truth that was coming out.
01:09:04
◼
►
You know, what Judy Miller was reporting from her sources in Iraq was not the
01:09:08
◼
►
truth and that led to disastrous circumstances. And the Jason Blair stuff, it didn't really
01:09:14
◼
►
lead to any kind of disaster like the Iraq war, but the whole problem is that it greatly
01:09:20
◼
►
diluted the credibility of if it's printed in the New York Times, it's true.
01:09:26
◼
►
And then all those David Pogue reviews. I miss Pogue.
01:09:32
◼
►
Well, I don't see his stuff anymore. I was just talking to somebody about that, that
01:09:38
◼
►
But I know he's still doing this thing at Yahoo.
01:09:41
◼
►
I just saw him recently too.
01:09:43
◼
►
Oh, I saw him in New York when I was getting my iPad Pro review unit.
01:09:49
◼
►
He must have been right before me.
01:09:54
◼
►
I was going into a hotel while he was coming out.
01:09:57
◼
►
So he still does.
01:09:58
◼
►
But I don't know what it is.
01:09:59
◼
►
There's some kind of tech meme search optimization strategy that the Yahoo people aren't doing.
01:10:08
◼
►
doing because I don't see his stuff. I don't know what, I don't know why that is.
01:10:12
◼
►
Yeah, I don't know. Like now that Mossberg is, you know, not at the journal and is writing for
01:10:17
◼
►
Recode and The Verge and stuff, I still see Mossberg reviews, you know, like they percolate
01:10:22
◼
►
into my peripheral vision and it's like, oh, open that in a tab. Whereas pogues don't. I somehow wind
01:10:29
◼
►
up not without any David Pogue tabs. Yeah, same. Maybe he just needs to tweet more. Yeah, maybe,
01:10:36
◼
►
I don't know. Let's take one last break here. I'll thank our third and final sponsor of the day. And
01:10:42
◼
►
it's our good friends at igloo. Now you guys know what an intranet is. Intranet is a thing
01:10:48
◼
►
that your company has for internal communication that nobody ever looks at or updates.
01:10:53
◼
►
igloo is an intranet you will actually like because it doesn't look like it was designed in the late
01:10:59
◼
►
90s because it wasn't. It's really just been designed in the last few years. And it is entirely
01:11:05
◼
►
designed around the modern concepts of how the web should work. Everything works on all
01:11:11
◼
►
devices. It scales from your phone to your tablets to desktop and it has features that
01:11:16
◼
►
are modern. Things like microblog so you could have for your internal team a little Twitter-like
01:11:22
◼
►
thing that's private on your internet and you can do links and texts and stuff like
01:11:26
◼
►
that but it's entirely private and it's hosted and you can access it anywhere from your phone,
01:11:32
◼
►
on the road, anything like that.
01:11:35
◼
►
All sorts of great features.
01:11:37
◼
►
You can have to-dos, you can manage the to-dos, calendars,
01:11:42
◼
►
so many features, and all the features you would want
01:11:44
◼
►
for internal communication on an intranet, they've got it.
01:11:47
◼
►
So where do you go to find out more
01:11:49
◼
►
and get started with a free trial?
01:11:51
◼
►
Go to igloosoftware.com/tts, the initials of the show.
01:11:58
◼
►
igloosoftware.com/tts and you'll get a free trial.
01:12:03
◼
►
Go check them out if you have any kind of team
01:12:05
◼
►
that needs an internet.
01:12:06
◼
►
What else is on the list?
01:12:10
◼
►
- I just wanted to say, that's something I think of a lot,
01:12:12
◼
►
is like how to get your stuff noticed.
01:12:17
◼
►
It's really interesting, it's almost hard to predict
01:12:19
◼
►
who's gonna read your stuff, and it's almost,
01:12:21
◼
►
really it doesn't seem to be correlated
01:12:25
◼
►
with how much traffic your site gets,
01:12:27
◼
►
even or anything like that.
01:12:30
◼
►
It's almost a different kind of science.
01:12:33
◼
►
And I don't know, I don't know if there's a way to crack it,
01:12:36
◼
►
but it's something that fascinates me
01:12:37
◼
►
because sometimes I put a lot of effort into an article
01:12:41
◼
►
and it just won't get read or the other way around.
01:12:44
◼
►
Like, you know, something that surprisingly does really well
01:12:48
◼
►
and sometimes it's, you know, you get lucky with a headline
01:12:50
◼
►
or a link here or there, but it really is weird
01:12:54
◼
►
how the web works with sharing
01:12:57
◼
►
and just getting read and who's reading it and sharing it.
01:13:01
◼
►
- I have found that,
01:13:04
◼
►
and I don't know quite why it would be,
01:13:08
◼
►
but to me, in my career,
01:13:11
◼
►
in the time I've been writing "Daring Fireball,"
01:13:13
◼
►
one of the apical moments was,
01:13:16
◼
►
you know, it's like a meteor that changed the,
01:13:19
◼
►
you know, hit and changed the world forever,
01:13:21
◼
►
was when Google shuttered Google Reader.
01:13:25
◼
►
Google Reader shuttering instantly cut into the traffic
01:13:30
◼
►
that Daring Fireball gets.
01:13:32
◼
►
So if I measure, I don't think it cut people.
01:13:34
◼
►
I honestly don't, I truly believe that the number of people
01:13:37
◼
►
who read my writing on a regular basis,
01:13:39
◼
►
if anything, continued to slowly grow.
01:13:41
◼
►
But in terms of like page views,
01:13:43
◼
►
it was instantaneous and permanent.
01:13:47
◼
►
And the number of pages I get per month
01:13:49
◼
►
is way fewer than from before.
01:13:52
◼
►
And it correlates exactly to when Google
01:13:54
◼
►
pulled the plug on Google Reader.
01:13:56
◼
►
And I think, my guess is that a lot of,
01:14:01
◼
►
awful lot of people who read "Daring Fireball"
01:14:04
◼
►
used Google Reader and they subscribed to my site.
01:14:07
◼
►
And whenever something new came up,
01:14:09
◼
►
they would go to, you know,
01:14:11
◼
►
click the thing that would go to my website.
01:14:13
◼
►
And I would register, you know,
01:14:15
◼
►
my analytics and whatever would register as a hit.
01:14:19
◼
►
And anyway, long story short,
01:14:20
◼
►
I don't get the traffic I used to in terms of page views.
01:14:22
◼
►
I've never been happier that I don't have page view tied advertising because that would
01:14:29
◼
►
have been, it really would have hit.
01:14:31
◼
►
It absolutely would have hurt if the advertising on Daring Fireball was correlated to page
01:14:36
◼
►
And I think it's just that people now, a lot of people check it when it comes to mind instead
01:14:40
◼
►
of checking as soon as, you know, treating Google readers like a notification system
01:14:45
◼
►
of, "Oh, Gruber posted something.
01:14:46
◼
►
I'll go check it out."
01:14:49
◼
►
The other thing, and this is where I'm getting at,
01:14:51
◼
►
is that pre-Google Reader,
01:14:53
◼
►
I was very, very good at guessing
01:14:55
◼
►
which longer pieces I wrote were gonna have legs
01:14:57
◼
►
and which ones weren't, and now I don't.
01:15:00
◼
►
I often think, wow, I think I hit a home run with this one,
01:15:04
◼
►
and it doesn't really, like the next day,
01:15:06
◼
►
nothing is, there's no bump.
01:15:09
◼
►
And then like last month, I wrote,
01:15:11
◼
►
I spent an awful lot of time
01:15:13
◼
►
really examining the battery case.
01:15:16
◼
►
- Oh, I remember.
01:15:19
◼
►
And all the lot of the feedback I got was why in the world would you spend that much
01:15:21
◼
►
time on the battery case?
01:15:23
◼
►
And the explanation is, it's because I could write about it.
01:15:27
◼
►
I found it interesting.
01:15:28
◼
►
I think there were some very interesting things about it.
01:15:31
◼
►
And because it's such a simple little thing, you can fully consider it.
01:15:37
◼
►
You can explore every little alley and crevice and notion about it.
01:15:40
◼
►
But it was one of the most popular things I've written in months.
01:15:44
◼
►
I think it was more popular than my iPhone 6s review.
01:15:48
◼
►
If I just measure by page views and seemingly
01:15:51
◼
►
how many new people did it.
01:15:52
◼
►
And I wasn't even the first to write the article.
01:15:54
◼
►
But somehow that one really took off.
01:15:56
◼
►
And I no longer can predict which ones
01:15:59
◼
►
are gonna be popular or not.
01:16:01
◼
►
- Speaking of that article, I mean, I still can't believe
01:16:04
◼
►
how controversial that battery case was.
01:16:08
◼
►
- Well, I guess that's why the article was popular.
01:16:11
◼
►
I think that people really have strong feelings
01:16:14
◼
►
about this. I mean you also went very deep on it. Yeah, I think what it is too
01:16:19
◼
►
is that there's an awful lot of people who viscerally hate this design. They
01:16:23
◼
►
really do. I mean they are... it is like, you know, like bringing up Obama or
01:16:31
◼
►
something, you know, with your, you know, your crazy uncle who's a Donald Trump
01:16:36
◼
►
supporter, you know, it like, it like turns on like a red anger bulb in
01:16:40
◼
►
people's heads and there are some people cannot even talk about it you know you
01:16:44
◼
►
know you would you would think that an argument a little debate if you will
01:16:48
◼
►
over the design of a phone battery pack would be the sort of thing that would
01:16:53
◼
►
not make anybody angry but you would be wrong and so the people who dislike it
01:16:58
◼
►
really really dislike it and it it if seemingly it seems to offend them on an
01:17:03
◼
►
emotional level and on the other side I think what maybe made my article popular
01:17:08
◼
►
is that the people who either are intrigued by it or actually like it, they can't articulate
01:17:13
◼
►
what why. It's, it's, again, almost like at an emotional level, they're like, Oh, I don't
01:17:18
◼
►
know, it doesn't look bad to me. But they're, they, I think that they've largely been quiet
01:17:24
◼
►
in public, because if you try to take that position, anything other than this design
01:17:31
◼
►
is an abject failure. And maybe johnny I've is, you know, we ought to investigate whether
01:17:35
◼
►
that he's losing his mind.
01:17:37
◼
►
If you take any position short of that,
01:17:38
◼
►
the people who hate it will jump all over you.
01:17:40
◼
►
And most people don't wanna be jumped all over.
01:17:43
◼
►
Me, I don't care.
01:17:44
◼
►
The only way--
01:17:48
◼
►
- You know what it reminds me of?
01:17:49
◼
►
Have you ever seen the Boeing Dreamlifter?
01:17:52
◼
►
- Oh, I think so, yeah.
01:17:53
◼
►
- Just like the 747 that they just added a bubble on top of
01:17:57
◼
►
to make it big enough so they could carry the fuselage
01:18:02
◼
►
of the Dreamliner?
01:18:04
◼
►
It's literally like just putting a bump on the, uh, you know, around, around the.
01:18:10
◼
►
Um, yeah, I think it's funny.
01:18:12
◼
►
Uh, it reminds me a lot of when a new logo comes out and everyone just jumps on it.
01:18:18
◼
►
The first day, you know, this is horrible.
01:18:20
◼
►
I can't believe it.
01:18:21
◼
►
And then no one cares after that.
01:18:23
◼
►
Um, I think, you know, and so much of the design of that thing is how it works.
01:18:29
◼
►
And I haven't used it.
01:18:32
◼
►
I haven't used it, I have a 6S Plus,
01:18:34
◼
►
so I don't need a battery pack, but, brag.
01:18:39
◼
►
But actually I did need a battery pack at CES.
01:18:42
◼
►
- Oh, that's interesting, even with the Plus.
01:18:45
◼
►
- Yeah, 'cause the cell signal is so bad there
01:18:47
◼
►
that I'm sure you're using way more battery
01:18:49
◼
►
than you should be.
01:18:50
◼
►
And-- - Yeah, even when,
01:18:52
◼
►
I've never been in CES, obviously, or repeated again,
01:18:55
◼
►
but I've been to Vegas many times,
01:18:56
◼
►
and Vegas has notoriously bad, in my opinion,
01:18:58
◼
►
cellular coverage.
01:19:00
◼
►
And in addition to the fact that the cellular coverage
01:19:02
◼
►
isn't that great in general,
01:19:03
◼
►
that's just talking like if you're outside or near a door,
01:19:05
◼
►
but the buildings are these caverns
01:19:08
◼
►
and they're the Faraday cage aspect of
01:19:11
◼
►
what it's like when you're covered by three tons of concrete
01:19:15
◼
►
and who even knows whether if you're underground
01:19:18
◼
►
or above ground or where the hell you are,
01:19:20
◼
►
it could definitely be a challenge.
01:19:23
◼
►
- Yeah, I got one of those anchor packs
01:19:26
◼
►
that's supposedly big enough to charge a MacBook
01:19:30
◼
►
and an iPad and a phone and all kinds of stuff.
01:19:33
◼
►
So I did use that.
01:19:35
◼
►
But anyway, I don't remember where I was,
01:19:37
◼
►
but if you need a battery pack,
01:19:40
◼
►
it seems like it actually works pretty well,
01:19:41
◼
►
which is the whole point.
01:19:42
◼
►
So I don't know, whatever.
01:19:44
◼
►
I thought you went deliciously over the top on that post,
01:19:48
◼
►
but as you say, it's a small enough thing
01:19:51
◼
►
where you can really examine it from every angle
01:19:55
◼
►
And why not?
01:19:56
◼
►
Like that's the whole point of being a self-publisher
01:19:59
◼
►
on the web is you could do something ridiculous like that.
01:20:02
◼
►
- The other thing I'm thinking about,
01:20:05
◼
►
and I went and bought a bunch of them.
01:20:07
◼
►
But I've always been, and I even said it there
01:20:09
◼
►
on the bottom of my article,
01:20:10
◼
►
my solution to battery challenge days
01:20:14
◼
►
is to have a little external battery pack,
01:20:16
◼
►
but I like the little ones.
01:20:17
◼
►
I like ones that I can put in my other pocket
01:20:19
◼
►
and it's almost like I don't even notice it's there.
01:20:22
◼
►
And Mophie makes a bunch of them.
01:20:24
◼
►
But I honestly consider it to be a shortcoming
01:20:27
◼
►
in their company in that they make too many of them.
01:20:29
◼
►
And that one of the things I really, really appreciate
01:20:32
◼
►
about Apple is that if you're going to buy an Apple blank
01:20:35
◼
►
and insert any product there,
01:20:37
◼
►
you can go and decide which one to get.
01:20:39
◼
►
And it's, I'm an indecisive person and I will pause it,
01:20:43
◼
►
but I never have a problem figuring out
01:20:44
◼
►
which MacBook to buy.
01:20:46
◼
►
I, and even now at a moment when their lineup is in flux
01:20:50
◼
►
and they still have the old MacBook Airs
01:20:52
◼
►
and the new MacBook One, which is underpowered,
01:20:55
◼
►
and the MacBook Pro.
01:20:56
◼
►
I know which Mac I want.
01:20:57
◼
►
I want the 13-inch MacBook Pro.
01:21:00
◼
►
That's the best, that's the one I want.
01:21:02
◼
►
I find it so hard to figure out,
01:21:04
◼
►
go to mophie.com and figure out which battery pack to buy,
01:21:07
◼
►
because they not only have different sizes
01:21:09
◼
►
in terms of like, well, here's the small one
01:21:11
◼
►
that'll refill one iPhone from, you know,
01:21:13
◼
►
throughout the day.
01:21:14
◼
►
Or here's a really big one that you could use
01:21:16
◼
►
to charge an iPad and two phones or something like that.
01:21:20
◼
►
but they also have multiple designs.
01:21:22
◼
►
They have ones with built-in cables,
01:21:24
◼
►
not with built-in cables, ones, you know,
01:21:26
◼
►
that it's too much.
01:21:28
◼
►
They should be the ones who, they're the battery experts.
01:21:30
◼
►
They should design the right design
01:21:33
◼
►
and then I don't have to worry about it.
01:21:35
◼
►
It's almost like when you go to mofeed.com
01:21:37
◼
►
and pick a battery pack or the, you know,
01:21:40
◼
►
external battery pack, you almost have to design it yourself
01:21:44
◼
►
'cause you've got to figure out,
01:21:46
◼
►
do you want an integrated cables?
01:21:47
◼
►
Do you want to have separate cables?
01:21:49
◼
►
Do you care that the battery is gonna charge by micro USB,
01:21:53
◼
►
but the phone is gonna charge by lightning,
01:21:55
◼
►
so you have to bring two different things at night?
01:21:58
◼
►
Does it do pass through charging,
01:22:00
◼
►
meaning that at the end of the day,
01:22:02
◼
►
when you put up next to your hotel bed,
01:22:04
◼
►
do you have one thing to plug in,
01:22:05
◼
►
and the battery will fill your phone first
01:22:08
◼
►
and then fill itself up,
01:22:09
◼
►
or do you have to plug two different things in
01:22:11
◼
►
because the battery pack won't charge the phone
01:22:14
◼
►
while it itself is being charged?
01:22:16
◼
►
They have all of those options are there
01:22:18
◼
►
for you to consider.
01:22:19
◼
►
from just one company and I kind of, I find it maddening.
01:22:23
◼
►
So I feel like I want to write an article and figure out which,
01:22:25
◼
►
which is the best one and effectively design it for Mophie.
01:22:29
◼
►
This is your version of Marco's headphone test. Yes, exactly. It's exactly it.
01:22:34
◼
►
It's my version of Marco's headphone test is battery packs,
01:22:37
◼
►
except that I'm only going to do Mophie's and speaking of Marco,
01:22:40
◼
►
Marco recommended one to me personally. Uh,
01:22:44
◼
►
I can't find it here.
01:22:46
◼
►
The other one to check out is Anker, A-N-K-E-R,
01:22:49
◼
►
which are some ex-Google people
01:22:51
◼
►
who make very nice battery and charging stuff.
01:22:56
◼
►
They're the ones who I also have a four port USB charger,
01:22:59
◼
►
which I travel with now.
01:23:01
◼
►
So I can, don't have to bring any of the Apple
01:23:04
◼
►
charging bricks, I just bring this and plug in my Macbook,
01:23:09
◼
►
iPhone, Apple Watch, and can charge something else
01:23:13
◼
►
at the same time.
01:23:14
◼
►
- All right, I'll take a look at the Anker ones.
01:23:15
◼
►
But anyway, Marco recommended one to me.
01:23:18
◼
►
He bought at Amazon for 24 bucks.
01:23:21
◼
►
And it has built-in cables.
01:23:24
◼
►
And I'm a built-in cable fan,
01:23:25
◼
►
so you don't, you know, it's just one thing
01:23:27
◼
►
to put in your pocket.
01:23:28
◼
►
And the son of a bitchin' thing broke.
01:23:31
◼
►
I hadn't even gotten past the point
01:23:32
◼
►
where I was just testing how, you know,
01:23:34
◼
►
like how quickly and, you know,
01:23:38
◼
►
just testing a whole bunch of different,
01:23:39
◼
►
these battery packs on my phone
01:23:41
◼
►
every time I'd let my phone go down.
01:23:42
◼
►
I'd only used it like three times,
01:23:44
◼
►
I'd never even taken it out of the house, so it wasn't like it was dropped or anything
01:23:49
◼
►
The lightning port on it just stopped working.
01:23:53
◼
►
So I think there's a sort of "you get what you pay for" aspect in there.
01:23:56
◼
►
And I also found it curious that Marco, of all people, was the one who recommended this
01:24:01
◼
►
cheap one to me.
01:24:05
◼
►
Maybe an imposter.
01:24:07
◼
►
I don't remember the name of the company.
01:24:10
◼
►
It was weird.
01:24:11
◼
►
Oh, here it is.
01:24:12
◼
►
on my desk. I hate to throw the company under the bus, but it's a volt ready. V O L T R
01:24:19
◼
►
E A D Y. And if you go to Amazon and look at the volt ready, you'll see what I mean
01:24:23
◼
►
about these integrated cables. And they're super, super thin. The cables. I mean, it's,
01:24:29
◼
►
it's so much thinner than the lightning port itself. And I, you know, I don't, I think
01:24:33
◼
►
that's probably why it broke. I think you need like a good thick cable.
01:24:40
◼
►
- Have you installed iOS 9.3 yet?
01:24:43
◼
►
- No, I have not.
01:24:45
◼
►
- I haven't either, I'm not in the beta cycle.
01:24:48
◼
►
- What's different about it?
01:24:52
◼
►
- The Sherlock Flux or whatever that thing is called,
01:24:58
◼
►
F-Lux, so you can get the warmer colors at nighttime
01:25:03
◼
►
so it's easier on your eyes when you're about to go to sleep.
01:25:07
◼
►
- Interesting.
01:25:09
◼
►
And there were all those new features for education,
01:25:12
◼
►
like the multiple user mode and that kind of stuff,
01:25:16
◼
►
which you assume is gonna be part of iOS 10.
01:25:19
◼
►
- Yeah. - So everyone can--
01:25:21
◼
►
- No, but it's still just in beta, right?
01:25:23
◼
►
- Yes, yeah, yeah.
01:25:24
◼
►
- I thought maybe I really was out to lunch.
01:25:27
◼
►
- No. - No, I'm kind of done.
01:25:29
◼
►
I do the betas of the major new OS over the summer,
01:25:33
◼
►
but that's mainly because I know my phone's a year old,
01:25:36
◼
►
I'm getting a new phone anyway,
01:25:37
◼
►
So if it goes belly up and it's usually there's like major major features
01:25:41
◼
►
I want to get get a hold of them but for stuff like the minor ones. I usually don't do the pay this
01:25:45
◼
►
Yeah, same. Have you?
01:25:48
◼
►
Have you been using the Apple TV a lot
01:25:51
◼
►
Every day every day. Have you used the game controller yet? Yeah, I have the game controller
01:25:58
◼
►
I don't use it very frequently because I just I just don't play video games
01:26:02
◼
►
Yeah, I bought one to
01:26:05
◼
►
To hopefully play games on and I used it the first day I had it and then I haven't used it since then
01:26:11
◼
►
Yeah, but that's really just me. It's not like that. I couldn't find some games. I liked I found a couple games
01:26:16
◼
►
I really liked but
01:26:18
◼
►
It just never occurs to me to play video games
01:26:20
◼
►
Yeah, I mean either I thought I would though. I
01:26:23
◼
►
thought so too, I think of all the things like if I time-traveled back and talked to my
01:26:30
◼
►
Like 10 11 12 year old self
01:26:32
◼
►
I think that I would have lots of good news to tell young John Gruber and I think he would be very happy about his
01:26:37
◼
►
Future but I think the of all the things he'd be most surprised by is that I would tell him that I
01:26:42
◼
►
You're gonna grow up and have the financial ability
01:26:45
◼
►
And the flexibility in your daily schedule to own and play any video game
01:26:52
◼
►
You want for as long as you want practically speaking and you're not going to
01:26:59
◼
►
Yeah, I think that pretty much I think that it my like
01:27:04
◼
►
12-year-old self would instantly suspect that whoever this guy who does kind of look like me
01:27:10
◼
►
And it was credibly well cast to play the person who's going to prank me and tell me that it's me when I'm 42
01:27:18
◼
►
Is obviously full of shit because there's no chance that if I could spend four or five hours every night playing cool video games that
01:27:26
◼
►
I wouldn't be doing it. I
01:27:29
◼
►
I downloaded one for the Apple Watch, which, you know, that was another one of those things
01:27:33
◼
►
where they were like, "Oh, WatchOS 2 is going to be, you know, it's going to be really helpful
01:27:38
◼
►
for games because they'll be able to run directly on the watch and also be able to use the digital
01:27:44
◼
►
crown as a controlling mechanism."
01:27:47
◼
►
And no, not fun.
01:27:50
◼
►
One of the games was like a, almost like a card game type thing and it was just too,
01:27:55
◼
►
weird and the other one was like pong type thing and it was just so jerky that
01:27:59
◼
►
I saw that I kept losing because I either got the same one or I downloaded
01:28:04
◼
►
a similar one and I think maybe there might be a bunch because if all you have
01:28:08
◼
►
is the crown pong is a very obvious concept and it was terrible it was
01:28:14
◼
►
absolutely terrible yeah I did not enjoy that as as we head into the new Apple
01:28:20
◼
►
Watch season and I suspect that they're going to announce it early ish this year
01:28:25
◼
►
you know, at this event that they're supposedly having in March, I do think we'll get a new watch.
01:28:31
◼
►
And as we, you know, what do we think of Apple Watch? I have to write this piece, I do, because
01:28:36
◼
►
I have a lot of thoughts on it. But bottom line, I think it's very clear in hindsight that they
01:28:41
◼
►
should not have had any apps at all for the first Apple Watch. I mean, maybe eventually it'll be an
01:28:46
◼
►
app platform, but it's clearly not ready for it yet. And slow apps is way worse than no apps,
01:28:53
◼
►
in my opinion. And to me, even now, even, you know, with watchOS 2 and everything,
01:28:59
◼
►
it's also still incredibly inconsistent, where if I go to like a weather app on
01:29:05
◼
►
the watch, sometimes it'll just spin and spin and spin until the screen goes off.
01:29:10
◼
►
And if I go to the exact same app, like Dark Sky or something, and take my phone
01:29:15
◼
►
out of my pocket and go to Dark Sky, it works instantly and has all, you know, all
01:29:19
◼
►
the data I want, you know, the information about the weather that I was looking for.
01:29:22
◼
►
And so what it doesn't take long to be psychologically conditioned to
01:29:26
◼
►
Because you don't trust that it's even going to work at all on the watch
01:29:30
◼
►
It doesn't take you very long at all that you just instinctively go for the app on your phone
01:29:35
◼
►
Totally especially with
01:29:39
◼
►
the this s 6s phones being so fast and also the 3d touch shortcuts like it's now
01:29:46
◼
►
You know when the watch launched to me
01:29:49
◼
►
it was really helpful to be able to quickly access something
01:29:52
◼
►
without reaching in my pocket
01:29:54
◼
►
and taking out this giant phone.
01:29:56
◼
►
But now the phone is so fast that,
01:29:59
◼
►
and the Touch ID unlock is so fast
01:30:02
◼
►
that it actually is faster now again to take my phone out
01:30:06
◼
►
than to try to get anything done on the watch.
01:30:08
◼
►
- Right, it's just, and that doesn't mean that the watch
01:30:12
◼
►
as a whole is a failure, but I feel like what
01:30:15
◼
►
this first watch was good and interesting for
01:30:18
◼
►
is just the ambient stuff, you know, the tracking, the health, you know,
01:30:21
◼
►
tracking your stuff,
01:30:22
◼
►
doing the workouts and whatever you configure to be shown at a glance on your,
01:30:27
◼
►
you know, without even doing anything is, you know, and that's enough,
01:30:31
◼
►
that's enough to make it a product.
01:30:32
◼
►
I think that the idea that they had to make had to have apps and their first one
01:30:37
◼
►
And I think it's kind of funny because they famously had no apps on the first
01:30:41
◼
►
iPhone. And it turns out that the phone was absolutely, you know,
01:30:45
◼
►
probably the best platform for quote unquote apps that mankind has ever
01:30:50
◼
►
It's like the pinnacle of apps as the central premise of how you're going to use
01:30:54
◼
►
a device. Um, didn't even have it at first. So if the,
01:30:57
◼
►
if the phone could get away without it at first,
01:30:59
◼
►
I don't see why the watch couldn't have. And I think in hindsight,
01:31:01
◼
►
the watch should have,
01:31:02
◼
►
yeah, I wrote kind of a, whatever it was like seven month review, uh,
01:31:08
◼
►
about a month ago now. And that was, you know, similar. I mean, my,
01:31:12
◼
►
my high level conclusion was I still use it every day and I still really like it a lot,
01:31:17
◼
►
but I'm not using it for any new things than I was at the beginning.
01:31:21
◼
►
I'm still basically using it for the same things as I did when I started.
01:31:25
◼
►
So in that way, it felt stalled in the sense that we were promised this kind of unlimited
01:31:30
◼
►
platform and no one's really taking advantage of it.
01:31:34
◼
►
Whereas in reality, I'm very happy with the things that it does well, the fitness tracking,
01:31:39
◼
►
the, you know, again, I'm always surprised how useful it is
01:31:43
◼
►
to have the time in front of me,
01:31:45
◼
►
especially with my phone now being so unwieldy.
01:31:48
◼
►
And, you know, and a few very other basic things, so.
01:31:54
◼
►
- I enjoyed that.
01:31:55
◼
►
I've enjoyed that from other people too.
01:31:56
◼
►
I know Marco was saying on his podcast,
01:31:59
◼
►
either the last episode or the last one I listened to,
01:32:01
◼
►
where he's, like for Christmas, got a mechanical watch
01:32:04
◼
►
because he's, you know,
01:32:06
◼
►
he never wore a watch in his entire life,
01:32:08
◼
►
but just the convenience of having the time on your wrist,
01:32:10
◼
►
it turns out that's actually pretty cool.
01:32:13
◼
►
All of us like me have been wearing watches in my life,
01:32:15
◼
►
it's like, come on, why did you have to be told this?
01:32:19
◼
►
- I know, I was the kid with the nerd watch in school
01:32:23
◼
►
with the calculator or Casio or whatever,
01:32:25
◼
►
but I forgot, I forgot all about that.
01:32:27
◼
►
Honestly, like the temperature is cool to have.
01:32:30
◼
►
- Yeah, that's the one thing when I wear
01:32:31
◼
►
my traditional watch, my regular watch,
01:32:34
◼
►
the one thing that I miss every single day
01:32:38
◼
►
is that I expect to be able to look at my wrist
01:32:40
◼
►
and see what the temperature is outside.
01:32:42
◼
►
- Yeah, I like it. - And every time,
01:32:45
◼
►
it's always, I mean, it's uncanny
01:32:49
◼
►
how I could go days without wearing my Apple Watch
01:32:51
◼
►
and I still, as I'm heading out the door
01:32:53
◼
►
and deciding which coat to put on, I look at my wrist
01:32:56
◼
►
and I'm like, oh, it's not gonna help.
01:32:58
◼
►
- Yeah, are you Apple paying with it?
01:33:01
◼
►
- Yeah, I do, when I have it on, I Apple pay,
01:33:03
◼
►
and that's another thing too is,
01:33:05
◼
►
'cause the supermarket where we go
01:33:07
◼
►
is a Whole Foods and they take Apple Pay.
01:33:09
◼
►
And I instantly, every single time,
01:33:12
◼
►
whether I'm wearing my Apple Watch or not Apple Watch,
01:33:14
◼
►
I put my wrist up to the kiosk.
01:33:22
◼
►
I mean, almost every day I do that, so.
01:33:24
◼
►
- It is, I find, and I thought so.
01:33:27
◼
►
I thought it would be true back in May when I first got it,
01:33:29
◼
►
and it turns out it's very true.
01:33:30
◼
►
It is terrific in the East Coast winter
01:33:33
◼
►
to have an Apple Pay thing
01:33:35
◼
►
that you don't have to fish out of your pocket
01:33:37
◼
►
when you're wearing a coat
01:33:38
◼
►
and layers of clothing and stuff.
01:33:40
◼
►
- Gloves too. - Right.
01:33:42
◼
►
- And actually you can go straight through the sleeve.
01:33:44
◼
►
You don't even need to roll up your sleeve.
01:33:47
◼
►
You just double click on that button
01:33:50
◼
►
and the NFC will go right through your shirt.
01:33:53
◼
►
- It is interesting.
01:33:53
◼
►
I'll tell you one thing too is I never used the single click
01:33:58
◼
►
on that contact thing to contact people.
01:34:01
◼
►
- Only by accident.
01:34:02
◼
►
- Right, and so I really feel like in hindsight,
01:34:05
◼
►
got that wrong. Like single click should have been Apple Pay and double click should have
01:34:09
◼
►
been jumped to context shortcuts, at least for me personally. Because when I do want
01:34:13
◼
►
to contact somebody, like if I want to text my son, I'll do it via Siri. I'll long press
01:34:19
◼
►
the other thing and just say, text Jonas, whatever it is I want to text him. Because
01:34:25
◼
►
you have to dictate the text anyway. So why not just initiate the contact from the voice
01:34:33
◼
►
It seems-- - Yeah, I assume
01:34:34
◼
►
they probably thought people would be doing the drawings
01:34:37
◼
►
and the touch stuff more than they do.
01:34:39
◼
►
Like I haven't done that stuff in months.
01:34:41
◼
►
- No, only when somebody gets a new Apple Watch.
01:34:43
◼
►
- Yeah, right. (laughs)
01:34:45
◼
►
- In hindsight, I mean, it's just one of those things where,
01:34:47
◼
►
and I kind of, it makes me a little worried.
01:34:50
◼
►
It's a worrisome product in some ways about Apple
01:34:52
◼
►
'cause it makes me wonder what made them think
01:34:55
◼
►
while they were using it themselves
01:34:56
◼
►
that this would be useful.
01:34:58
◼
►
It just seems to me that if they spent
01:35:01
◼
►
as much time thinking about it as I have
01:35:03
◼
►
in the first six months while I wore it.
01:35:05
◼
►
Why didn't they come to the same conclusions I did?
01:35:08
◼
►
I mean, that's a good, the whole idea was a great idea.
01:35:12
◼
►
I was very intrigued by it,
01:35:13
◼
►
the idea that you would have these favorite people
01:35:16
◼
►
and one touch away from just sending your heartbeat
01:35:19
◼
►
or whatever, fabulous idea.
01:35:21
◼
►
But then I feel like once you actually have it on your wrist
01:35:24
◼
►
and you can do it, it turns out it doesn't really stick.
01:35:27
◼
►
- I think that it's gonna be,
01:35:30
◼
►
Some of the most interesting things are gonna be
01:35:32
◼
►
what they change based on what they've now learned
01:35:35
◼
►
from millions of people using this thing.
01:35:38
◼
►
And that's the software as well as the hardware.
01:35:41
◼
►
I think we've already seen they realizing
01:35:43
◼
►
that the Sport is the main watch.
01:35:48
◼
►
There's more colors now, we'll see what else
01:35:51
◼
►
changes with that.
01:35:52
◼
►
- Well, I said-- - The software changes.
01:35:54
◼
►
Yeah, I know you said it was the best one.
01:35:56
◼
►
- Yeah, I think it's the best one.
01:35:57
◼
►
I think all of the worrying that people did,
01:35:59
◼
►
I think this is to me one of the most interesting things about it.
01:36:02
◼
►
It's all the worrying people did that the common person is going to get short changed
01:36:06
◼
►
and gets this cruddy aluminum one and it's only rich people who can afford a $1000 stainless
01:36:12
◼
►
steel one who are going to get the nice one.
01:36:14
◼
►
It's actually the other way around.
01:36:15
◼
►
The people who bought the $400 sport one got the best watch.
01:36:18
◼
►
I really do believe that.
01:36:20
◼
►
Yeah, I love mine.
01:36:22
◼
►
So I'm just super curious to see what they change software wise too.
01:36:28
◼
►
Yeah, I am too. And I don't...
01:36:31
◼
►
The software group has really gotten good at keeping
01:36:35
◼
►
a little... not much leaks out of Apple software these days. So I think we're in
01:36:39
◼
►
for a surprise.
01:36:40
◼
►
I don't think that, you know, who knows? I mean, you never know what Mark Germin's
01:36:44
◼
►
figure out. But yeah, I don't know. I think there's a good chance that we'll be
01:36:48
◼
►
surprised. So any guesses we have are actually
01:36:51
◼
►
real guesses. If you ask me right now,
01:36:54
◼
►
what do I think they're gonna do? I'm gonna guess a lot of
01:36:58
◼
►
health and sensor related improvements.
01:37:01
◼
►
And this one might be more of a me just wishful thinking, but I really,
01:37:06
◼
►
really would like to see them do something a lot smarter with where the aggregate
01:37:11
◼
►
health data is, you know,
01:37:15
◼
►
making health center more of a here's everything that we know about you type
01:37:21
◼
►
thing. Like to me,
01:37:23
◼
►
it's way too separated with the activities is just for the watch stuff and
01:37:28
◼
►
Not you and you know what I mean? Right. And you know, I have six months or well, I have eight months of aggregated
01:37:36
◼
►
Fitness tracking like okay. What what higher level trends can you tell me? Yeah, you know
01:37:42
◼
►
Okay, when you I don't know when you work out on the weekend you do something better during the week
01:37:50
◼
►
I don't know just like give me some more other than that page of all the rings, which is kind of cool, but
01:37:58
◼
►
Was cool, you know the first couple times I looked at it
01:38:00
◼
►
It is nice to be able to go back and kind of brag about the day. I walked
01:38:04
◼
►
27,000 steps steps at CES, but it would be great to actually get some more useful information out of that page
01:38:11
◼
►
Yeah, I think that if there's if they're paying attention to how people seem to be using the watch in the real world
01:38:18
◼
►
It's gonna be a lot more about quantifying
01:38:19
◼
►
You know and helping you make sense and organize your the data that the watch knows and like I mean the other thing too
01:38:25
◼
►
is if I'm not wearing my watch but I have my phone with me, the minimal compared to the watch,
01:38:30
◼
►
but the minimal tracking that the phone does should be easily combined with the watch,
01:38:34
◼
►
you know, to create an overall picture of my activity and stuff like that and where I've been.
01:38:40
◼
►
And then the other thing I think I hope that they're working on is I think that they should
01:38:44
◼
►
really work to make it smarter about whether it's watch faces or the glances or locate, you know,
01:38:53
◼
►
but something so that it's just smarter about showing you what you want to be looking at when you look at your wrist.
01:38:57
◼
►
Yeah, there's plenty of context that knows about, you know, where I'm at, what I'm doing, that it could...
01:39:04
◼
►
I would even trust it to shuffle the complications for me somehow.
01:39:10
◼
►
Based on the context, you know, if I'm at the airport, show me the travel complications.
01:39:16
◼
►
If it's nighttime, show me, you know, certain things.
01:39:19
◼
►
And I know that it would be kind of obnoxious to have to program the logic behind that so maybe you wouldn't be able to program it
01:39:27
◼
►
to me that would be there's so much more context that
01:39:31
◼
►
That they could be integrating into a lot of the decisions about what they show you
01:39:35
◼
►
Were there a lot of?
01:39:39
◼
►
Android watches at the CES not in a really noticeable way
01:39:45
◼
►
I mean, last year it was so,
01:39:48
◼
►
the whole watch thing was very novel,
01:39:50
◼
►
and of course there was the famous Apple Watch knockoff,
01:39:54
◼
►
and yeah, a lot of the boots I guess had
01:39:56
◼
►
kind of Android watches, but I think that
01:39:59
◼
►
it didn't really, it wasn't like a huge thing.
01:40:04
◼
►
I mean, like Samsung had one,
01:40:05
◼
►
but I think their only major change was just the color.
01:40:08
◼
►
- And then there was that Fitbit thing
01:40:12
◼
►
that looks a little like an Apple Watch.
01:40:14
◼
►
- They put it like a hexagonal.
01:40:16
◼
►
It's like they cut off corners.
01:40:18
◼
►
- Yeah, I kinda dumped on it.
01:40:19
◼
►
I looked at it, it's fine, I mean, whatever.
01:40:21
◼
►
If you're trying to buy a $200 thing or whatever,
01:40:25
◼
►
and you want a Fitbit that also does a couple other things.
01:40:29
◼
►
- The advantage that Fitbit has is they can get away
01:40:31
◼
►
with an ugly-ish design, and quite frankly,
01:40:33
◼
►
I think that their thing is ugly.
01:40:35
◼
►
It's certainly uglier than the Apple Watch.
01:40:38
◼
►
- They can get away with it because their audience
01:40:40
◼
►
is primarily looking at fitness tracking.
01:40:42
◼
►
And so if the thing you're most interested in
01:40:44
◼
►
is fitness tracking,
01:40:45
◼
►
therefore less than great aesthetics,
01:40:50
◼
►
you can get away with it.
01:40:51
◼
►
Whereas Apple Watch, its primary thing
01:40:54
◼
►
is it's supposed to be a good looking watch.
01:40:56
◼
►
- Yeah, and I think the whole point behind this
01:40:59
◼
►
is that they wanna become a more universal device
01:41:03
◼
►
and get away from, you know, the biggest risk to Fitbit
01:41:07
◼
►
is that fitness tracking becomes an app
01:41:09
◼
►
on a more universal device as opposed to a separate thing
01:41:14
◼
►
that you carry around.
01:41:17
◼
►
The way that calculator is now an app on a phone
01:41:20
◼
►
or a flashlight, no one's carrying a little mag light
01:41:24
◼
►
around anymore, it's your camera flash.
01:41:27
◼
►
So I could see why they would wanna kind of go after
01:41:32
◼
►
that more mainstream universal, more useful market,
01:41:36
◼
►
but I just don't know if they're the company
01:41:38
◼
►
that has the software and the ecosystem that they can get enough people using it.
01:41:44
◼
►
I mean, there's still, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's selling a lot.
01:41:47
◼
►
People are buying a lot of foot bits there.
01:41:48
◼
►
The brand has a awareness and people like it, but I don't know.
01:41:53
◼
►
I think they're doomed because I think that they're not going to be able to stay
01:41:57
◼
►
far enough ahead to, to, to stay ahead of the eventual good enough fitness tracking
01:42:04
◼
►
that's built into other devices.
01:42:06
◼
►
You know, including
01:42:07
◼
►
- Yeah, I think right before, right after they went public,
01:42:11
◼
►
I did kind of a trolly post where I said,
01:42:13
◼
►
Fitbit's long-term stock chart revealed
01:42:16
◼
►
or something like that,
01:42:18
◼
►
or the long-term sales chart revealed,
01:42:19
◼
►
and it was the shipments curve of the iPod.
01:42:23
◼
►
It was like, you know, this is a single-purpose device
01:42:27
◼
►
that has basically become an app
01:42:29
◼
►
on a more general-purpose device.
01:42:32
◼
►
- Over the holidays, we were at Amy's mom's house
01:42:34
◼
►
for something, I don't know,
01:42:36
◼
►
at some point during the Christmas, New Year's thing,
01:42:38
◼
►
and it must have been Christmas,
01:42:40
◼
►
and her mom had a LED Maglite,
01:42:45
◼
►
and I was just blown away by how awesomely powerful
01:42:50
◼
►
the flashlight is.
01:42:53
◼
►
All the flashlights, and we have a bunch of them
01:42:55
◼
►
from Maglite, I've always been a fan of their stuff
01:42:57
◼
►
'cause it's so well made,
01:42:58
◼
►
but ours are all the old incandescent thing,
01:43:01
◼
►
and I was like, wow, it's like I have somehow
01:43:03
◼
►
missed this revolution, and I need to upgrade
01:43:05
◼
►
or flashlight. So I went flashlight shopping for myself. And it's so funny how it's like
01:43:11
◼
►
maglite has all this, so many slogans on a bunch of their smaller ones. So it's like,
01:43:15
◼
►
you know, yes, you really do need a flashlight. Yes, you can, you can have a flashlight that's
01:43:19
◼
►
so much better than the one on your phone. And it's like, if you're telling people that
01:43:22
◼
►
they, if you're just reminding them that they still need to buy a flashlight, you're, you're
01:43:26
◼
►
in trouble. Like it is exactly, it mirrors exactly what the consumer camera company started
01:43:32
◼
►
saying five or six years ago about,
01:43:34
◼
►
"Yeah, you totally need a $200 point and shoot camera."
01:43:38
◼
►
And it's like, no you don't.
01:43:39
◼
►
Go to any tourist location in the world
01:43:41
◼
►
and look at what people are using.
01:43:42
◼
►
They're all using their phones.
01:43:48
◼
►
- And the flashlight is right there.
01:43:50
◼
►
It's like, who knew?
01:43:52
◼
►
To me, it's like something I would have never predicted.
01:43:54
◼
►
I mean, and Apple obviously didn't predict it
01:43:55
◼
►
'cause they were a little late to the game
01:43:57
◼
►
at making it something that you didn't need an app for.
01:44:00
◼
►
but I use my iPhone as a flashlight
01:44:03
◼
►
probably at least once a day every day.
01:44:04
◼
►
- Every day, yeah.
01:44:06
◼
►
It's crazy to me, but it's awesome.
01:44:09
◼
►
- Right, but it's, you know, to me in the same way,
01:44:12
◼
►
I'm not saying MagLite's going out of business,
01:44:14
◼
►
but they're gonna go,
01:44:15
◼
►
their business that was selling little $10 ones
01:44:18
◼
►
that you keep at your desk is gone.
01:44:21
◼
►
And it's never gonna come back.
01:44:22
◼
►
The only lights, flashlights they're gonna sell
01:44:23
◼
►
are the big serious ones that you need, you know,
01:44:26
◼
►
where you really do want like a, you know,
01:44:28
◼
►
a two D cell flashlight.
01:44:31
◼
►
- Yeah, and I mean, and just to bring it back to that Fitbit
01:44:35
◼
►
I guess that was the criticism was that it wasn't going
01:44:37
◼
►
after the serious fitness market
01:44:39
◼
►
'cause it doesn't have a GPS.
01:44:42
◼
►
- You know, the marathon runners aren't using that model.
01:44:46
◼
►
And I don't think it's gonna be enough of an Apple watch
01:44:49
◼
►
to beat Apple or even the Google watches
01:44:53
◼
►
at being a more general purpose device.
01:44:57
◼
►
Anything else you wanna talk about this week, Dan?
01:45:00
◼
►
- Not really. (laughs)
01:45:05
◼
►
- There was, you know what--
01:45:06
◼
►
- What do you wanna talk about?
01:45:07
◼
►
- Well, I was gonna say there was,
01:45:09
◼
►
it comes and goes, but it's,
01:45:12
◼
►
I don't write about finance generally,
01:45:16
◼
►
but I'm somewhat intrigued by it,
01:45:18
◼
►
and I don't think that the company is immune to it.
01:45:21
◼
►
I think even if you're primarily interested in Apple
01:45:23
◼
►
because of their products, as I am,
01:45:26
◼
►
that you still have to consider their stock price
01:45:30
◼
►
and their quarterly financials
01:45:32
◼
►
because they're a publicly held company.
01:45:35
◼
►
And we're at a point, the whole market is down,
01:45:38
◼
►
quite frankly, but Apple is down further than the market
01:45:41
◼
►
and they're trading at a ridiculously low
01:45:44
◼
►
price to earning ratio at the moment.
01:45:46
◼
►
And it just brings out the crazies.
01:45:50
◼
►
I mean, you cannot make this up.
01:45:53
◼
►
I mean, this guy, Trip Chaudry, is almost comically,
01:45:57
◼
►
it really is hard to believe that he's not a parody,
01:46:00
◼
►
that there's somebody out there who made up the name
01:46:02
◼
►
and, you know, like the McElope,
01:46:04
◼
►
and it's a fake analyst who doesn't even exist,
01:46:07
◼
►
and for years now, he's been getting away with this
01:46:10
◼
►
and getting quoted, and he keeps saying
01:46:12
◼
►
more and more outrageous things,
01:46:14
◼
►
and everybody just keeps quoting him.
01:46:16
◼
►
That, you know, putting the word analyst
01:46:18
◼
►
in front of your name is somehow this magical credibility
01:46:23
◼
►
He literally said last week, he called Tim Cook a bozo
01:46:26
◼
►
and called for him to be not fired.
01:46:29
◼
►
He called for him to be demoted back to chief operating
01:46:34
◼
►
And says that John Rubenstein should come back to the company
01:46:38
◼
►
and become the CEO.
01:46:41
◼
►
Which is not going to happen.
01:46:44
◼
►
That is not the way it works.
01:46:45
◼
►
Maybe co-CEO with Fidel.
01:46:47
◼
►
I guess, yeah, bring them all back.
01:46:49
◼
►
And that Angela Arndt's is a nitwit or something.
01:46:51
◼
►
I forget what his word was and she's gotta go.
01:46:54
◼
►
Meanwhile, Apple stores have never been more popular
01:46:57
◼
►
or more successful.
01:46:58
◼
►
- I mean, there is a lot of,
01:47:04
◼
►
I wouldn't say pessimism as much as just kind of,
01:47:10
◼
►
people are not quite sure if iPhone sales
01:47:14
◼
►
are gonna grow this year.
01:47:16
◼
►
And I don't know, maybe that doesn't matter
01:47:18
◼
►
to the average person.
01:47:20
◼
►
It does matter to Apple as a growth story.
01:47:26
◼
►
And growth certainly is important in any company.
01:47:29
◼
►
And sure, there are cycles where things flatten out
01:47:35
◼
►
or maybe they decrease a little
01:47:36
◼
►
and they start growing again.
01:47:37
◼
►
And yes, Apple, relative to the market,
01:47:44
◼
►
That's one thing, but there are companies
01:47:46
◼
►
whose stock performed great last year.
01:47:49
◼
►
I believe Amazon was one of those.
01:47:50
◼
►
- Amazon, definitely.
01:47:51
◼
►
Amazon, it seems like everybody has really, really
01:47:53
◼
►
caught on to Amazon, and I think deservedly so.
01:47:57
◼
►
But just little things like the way that Amazon,
01:48:00
◼
►
by most, the accounting I've seen,
01:48:03
◼
►
got 51% of the online holiday shopping.
01:48:05
◼
►
That's an enormous number,
01:48:07
◼
►
and it's sort of a magic number, too.
01:48:09
◼
►
Fundamentally, if they got 49% of it
01:48:13
◼
►
instead of 51%, it's the same.
01:48:15
◼
►
It's a rounding error and probably well within
01:48:17
◼
►
the margin of error for however the outside group
01:48:20
◼
►
guesstimated the numbers.
01:48:22
◼
►
But 51 is over that 50% line and that's a magic number
01:48:26
◼
►
and you can see why that would fuel
01:48:29
◼
►
investor confidence in their stock.
01:48:31
◼
►
- Yeah, so in the meantime you have
01:48:34
◼
►
this huge group of analysts who try to guess every quarter
01:48:40
◼
►
how many phones Apple's gonna sell
01:48:42
◼
►
and what their revenue and profits are gonna be.
01:48:43
◼
►
And what's been happening recently
01:48:47
◼
►
is that they've been reducing their forecast
01:48:49
◼
►
for iPhone sales and for, I think also for revenue.
01:48:53
◼
►
I don't have the trend line in front of me.
01:48:57
◼
►
I actually have access to what I thought
01:48:59
◼
►
would be an interesting chart
01:49:00
◼
►
of like how the estimates change over time,
01:49:03
◼
►
but they actually changed so little
01:49:04
◼
►
that it's just kind of a flat line.
01:49:06
◼
►
It's not very, it's not actually a very interesting chart,
01:49:09
◼
►
but we'll see.
01:49:11
◼
►
- And yeah, this could possibly be a year.
01:49:14
◼
►
And by the way, this has been known for a while.
01:49:16
◼
►
Like I think I wrote about this in, I would say July
01:49:20
◼
►
or even April of last year that this coming year
01:49:24
◼
►
could be the year where the company doesn't grow very much
01:49:29
◼
►
And we'll see.
01:49:32
◼
►
I mean, it certainly does matter for some reasons,
01:49:36
◼
►
but it also seems to be creating an opportunity
01:49:39
◼
►
for a lot of people to blow things out of context
01:49:42
◼
►
and be silly about things.
01:49:44
◼
►
- There's a very interesting story here, I think,
01:49:48
◼
►
but it's all nuanced and it requires, you know,
01:49:51
◼
►
let's be serious about this,
01:49:52
◼
►
that this company, the biggest company in the world
01:49:55
◼
►
is not going to implode.
01:49:56
◼
►
It's, like we're talking about growth stopping,
01:49:59
◼
►
not that the iPhone is going to,
01:50:02
◼
►
the way some of these people are talking about it
01:50:04
◼
►
is as though, I mean, here's the literal headline,
01:50:06
◼
►
the iPhone slowdown spells doom for Apple.
01:50:09
◼
►
I mean, that's an actual headline
01:50:10
◼
►
in an ostensibly serious business publication.
01:50:13
◼
►
It's ridiculous.
01:50:14
◼
►
It doesn't spell doom.
01:50:15
◼
►
But it certainly is interesting.
01:50:18
◼
►
And I think it's almost, if you're realistic about it,
01:50:21
◼
►
you have to admit that just back of the envelope math
01:50:25
◼
►
would suggest that the basic story is actually very easy.
01:50:30
◼
►
iPhone sales were suppressed for at least a year or two,
01:50:33
◼
►
it seems, because consumers decided they liked bigger phones and the iPhone didn't have a
01:50:39
◼
►
big phone. And it takes Apple at least two years to make a change like that because of
01:50:46
◼
►
their "we only do one major new design a year and we bet the bank on it." They're stuck
01:50:52
◼
►
with it for two years. And when the 6 and 6S came out, or the 6 and 6 Plus came out
01:50:58
◼
►
last year. There was, A, it satisfied the demand, but B, it was pent up because a lot
01:51:04
◼
►
of people had waited because there were rumors. I mean, anybody who, like us, knows casual
01:51:10
◼
►
people who are like, "Hey, is it true that Apple's going to come out with a bigger phone?"
01:51:13
◼
►
And we'd be like, "Well, you know, give your standard, I don't know, but it certainly seems
01:51:17
◼
►
like it." That's what all signs point to. And they were like, "Cool, I'm going to get
01:51:21
◼
►
that," and they waited for it. And then they did, and they had unbelievable sales.
01:51:26
◼
►
I think that the sales so far, from what we know,
01:51:29
◼
►
that the 6S and the 6S Plus are matching that,
01:51:32
◼
►
but the question is are they gonna grow even further?
01:51:35
◼
►
And they may not, but the thing that's also very obvious
01:51:37
◼
►
is that at this point, they're getting to the point
01:51:40
◼
►
where they're running out of people on the planet
01:51:42
◼
►
who can afford iPhones.
01:51:44
◼
►
- Right, which they're maybe actually gonna help out
01:51:48
◼
►
with the second hand-me-down subscription phones this year.
01:51:53
◼
►
phones this year. We'll see.
01:51:58
◼
►
At this point, though, they're reaching a point where I really think that to grow, it
01:52:03
◼
►
has to be at the lower end by widening the number of lower-cost phones that are being
01:52:09
◼
►
sold that are iPhones. Because at the high end, I really do think they're at the point
01:52:14
◼
►
where there just aren't untapped people left.
01:52:21
◼
►
There are a few Google employees with Nexus phones and then that's about it.
01:52:27
◼
►
And that's where other products come into play too, like the watch or the Apple TV,
01:52:31
◼
►
but those are both so early in their life cycle that there's even Apple Music, which
01:52:37
◼
►
we calculated is on a billion dollar revenue run rate.
01:52:41
◼
►
Billion dollars is not that much to Apple.
01:52:44
◼
►
How many watches do we think that they sold?
01:52:47
◼
►
The last time I ran, after last quarter,
01:52:50
◼
►
my number was around five million,
01:52:52
◼
►
just based on kind of the changes
01:52:54
◼
►
in that other products thing.
01:52:56
◼
►
Could be a little more than that,
01:52:57
◼
►
but the Christmas quarter is probably gonna be
01:53:00
◼
►
on another level, so.
01:53:02
◼
►
- We'll know in a few weeks.
01:53:03
◼
►
I mean, just making up a completely random number,
01:53:05
◼
►
I would guess that they probably moved
01:53:07
◼
►
like five to 10 million last quarter alone,
01:53:10
◼
►
but who knows, I have no idea.
01:53:13
◼
►
- Right, and each one of those
01:53:19
◼
►
it did the average selling prices easily gassed at around five hundred dollars
01:53:23
◼
►
overwhelmingly most of them are sport and the sport ones are four hundred dollars and
01:53:27
◼
►
then you know just enough of those steel ones would raise it up to around five
01:53:31
◼
►
if they every million that they sell is five hundred dollars in revenue that's
01:53:36
◼
►
what is that
01:53:38
◼
►
so basically a billion for every two million
01:53:40
◼
►
phones, their watches so and so they've you know they've built in year one a
01:53:44
◼
►
multi-billion dollar business, which is pretty good.
01:53:47
◼
►
And I think it's about that.
01:53:48
◼
►
But if you're Apple, it's not going to really drive much growth, especially if
01:53:53
◼
►
you have to offset, you know, the iPad declining and, um, you know, the Mac is.
01:53:59
◼
►
The Mac has been up, but it sometimes falls and that sort of stuff.
01:54:03
◼
►
So, yeah, my guess is that the iPad is stabilized.
01:54:06
◼
►
I think that the iPad is going to settle in as a nine to 10 million, a quarter
01:54:13
◼
►
device in the same way that the Mac has long been a very very stable product
01:54:18
◼
►
where but it but it actually grown in a very nice but conservative way where in
01:54:26
◼
►
the old days you know like 10 15 years ago it was like a million max a quarter
01:54:32
◼
►
was the magic number good quarters were over a million and bad quarters were
01:54:36
◼
►
under a million and it's slowly but steadily grown to the point now where
01:54:41
◼
►
they're doing like three, four, four and a half million
01:54:44
◼
►
max a quarter.
01:54:46
◼
►
- Is it more now?
01:54:47
◼
►
- Yeah, well I'm gonna pull out my spreadsheet here.
01:54:52
◼
►
So give me 10 seconds, but let's see,
01:54:55
◼
►
last quarter was 5.7.
01:54:59
◼
►
- There you go, I'm behind the times.
01:55:00
◼
►
So they've grown past five.
01:55:02
◼
►
- Which is I believe a record.
01:55:04
◼
►
- All time record.
01:55:06
◼
►
- You know, and I noticed though,
01:55:08
◼
►
I noticed just the other day,
01:55:09
◼
►
I saw a guy in Starbucks and he was working on an old,
01:55:14
◼
►
remember the white MacBooks?
01:55:16
◼
►
Remember the ones that you could either get white or black?
01:55:18
◼
►
And he was working on one of those.
01:55:19
◼
►
It was in beautiful shape.
01:55:21
◼
►
It was absolutely, it really was.
01:55:23
◼
►
It was totally clean and the screen looked great
01:55:27
◼
►
and he was working on like, I couldn't tell which app.
01:55:29
◼
►
It was either Excel or Numbers.
01:55:31
◼
►
It was clearly a spreadsheet.
01:55:32
◼
►
Doing work on it and it looked great.
01:55:35
◼
►
And so I had no surprise that he's still using it.
01:55:38
◼
►
But that's what normal people do
01:55:39
◼
►
is they buy a MacBook or a laptop
01:55:42
◼
►
and they use it until it breaks.
01:55:45
◼
►
- Hey, this is a 2009 iMac we're using.
01:55:47
◼
►
So we're chatting right now.
01:55:49
◼
►
- Right, and I feel like the iPad,
01:55:51
◼
►
my theory on the iPad is that it sold
01:55:55
◼
►
in these 20 million a quarter numbers
01:55:58
◼
►
because it was this sensational new thing
01:56:01
◼
►
that met a demand that no product had ever met before.
01:56:04
◼
►
And lots of people decided,
01:56:06
◼
►
hey, I could use one of those.
01:56:07
◼
►
And they weren't replacing anything.
01:56:09
◼
►
and they were adding it to their life.
01:56:11
◼
►
And so it was way out of proportion
01:56:13
◼
►
to what could be expected in a normal quarter.
01:56:16
◼
►
And that now it's settled in.
01:56:19
◼
►
And it settled in, I think, roughly like
01:56:21
◼
►
somewhere around two times the number of Macs they sell.
01:56:25
◼
►
And that that's the natural number of iPads
01:56:27
◼
►
to be sold a quarter.
01:56:28
◼
►
- Yep, and hey, I just bought an iPad too, off eBay,
01:56:32
◼
►
just to use as a screen.
01:56:34
◼
►
So the old ones have value too.
01:56:36
◼
►
- Yeah, and again, I don't think people get rid of them
01:56:38
◼
►
until they break.
01:56:39
◼
►
- No, I had to stop using my original iPad
01:56:42
◼
►
because it was still on, I think iOS 5.
01:56:44
◼
►
And the app we were using to watch TV on
01:56:49
◼
►
needed iOS 7, I think so.
01:56:52
◼
►
Got an iPad 2 and now I'm solved.
01:56:56
◼
►
- So I don't know.
01:56:59
◼
►
I think that the hyperventilating over this is ridiculous.
01:57:03
◼
►
I do think it's interesting though.
01:57:04
◼
►
It's interesting to say what does Apple do
01:57:07
◼
►
now that the iPhone has reached peak iPhone.
01:57:10
◼
►
- Right, and much like when they mess something small up
01:57:16
◼
►
with the product, people love to jump on it.
01:57:18
◼
►
So imagine the whole company collapsing,
01:57:23
◼
►
or not collapsing, but actually just not growing
01:57:26
◼
►
like crazy for a few quarters in a row.
01:57:30
◼
►
But yeah, what do they do?
01:57:31
◼
►
They've done a few things,
01:57:35
◼
►
and we'll see.
01:57:38
◼
►
- Well, and I think in terms of anybody
01:57:40
◼
►
who's looking for growth,
01:57:42
◼
►
I don't see how the watch could have done better
01:57:44
◼
►
in the first year.
01:57:45
◼
►
And honestly, I've given the numbers it's gotten.
01:57:47
◼
►
I think that they've sold outside the number,
01:57:49
◼
►
outside how well it deserves to have sold.
01:57:51
◼
►
I don't think it's that great of a 1.0 product,
01:57:53
◼
►
but it's actually remarkable that they're selling
01:57:56
◼
►
as many millions of them as it seems like they are.
01:57:59
◼
►
And I think that's great.
01:58:01
◼
►
And I think it's only gonna get better.
01:58:02
◼
►
And they do really, in the last few years,
01:58:05
◼
►
they've really, with every product since the iPad, they do an amazing job in the first
01:58:10
◼
►
two or three years of greatly improving the product. I mean the iPad went from the iPad
01:58:17
◼
►
to the iPad 2, which is way thinner. Then there was the iPad 3, which was weird because
01:58:22
◼
►
it went retina, but it got thicker and heavier, which was a weird sort of, now you have this
01:58:26
◼
►
awesome retina screen, but it's also thicker and heavier. And then ever since, from that
01:58:30
◼
►
point onward, it's just gotten crazily thinner and faster and lighter. So I expect the exact
01:58:35
◼
►
same trajectory with the watch, with a very aggressive annual schedule.
01:58:39
◼
►
Yeah, I'm excited. I've liked mine a lot more than I thought I would. But it's still a long
01:58:48
◼
►
way to get between now and 100 million units a year.
01:58:54
◼
►
One last thing I thought of from CES was that it sort of ties into the "What does Apple
01:58:58
◼
►
do now and it sort of ties into my thing about maybe they shouldn't have done apps on the
01:59:03
◼
►
watch was a, I think it was Dieter Bone for the Verge had an article about Tizen, which
01:59:07
◼
►
is Samsung's not Android, their own homegrown operating system and that maybe it's going
01:59:13
◼
►
to do okay even though it never, you know, nobody, there's no app developers, you know,
01:59:18
◼
►
targeting Tizen. And that's sort of the problem that windows exemplifies is that at best,
01:59:27
◼
►
usually there's just one dominant platform that developers write for.
01:59:31
◼
►
In the old days it used to be the Windows, then it became on the desktop,
01:59:36
◼
►
then it became the web. And nowadays it's split. People still develop
01:59:40
◼
►
for the web, but on mobile people develop for iOS and they develop for Android.
01:59:44
◼
►
And if you're trying to be the third, you're out of luck because there's just
01:59:49
◼
►
too much to ask. So Windows doesn't really get apps. And Tizen certainly
01:59:54
◼
►
gets less than Windows. But that maybe, you know, I guess what he was writing about was
01:59:59
◼
►
these Samsung watches that are running Tizen. And it occurs to me that as we move past the
02:00:05
◼
►
phone and get into these other devices, platforms going forward and operating systems, apps
02:00:11
◼
►
may not need to be a part of that. Like, and having your own operating system that you
02:00:16
◼
►
inside your company completely control and you can have your engineers optimize it, you
02:00:21
◼
►
You know, what you really want to work on is low energy consumption.
02:00:25
◼
►
Well, you can make that the highest priority because you have your own operating system.
02:00:31
◼
►
Or if you want to do like what Apple's done with Metal and make this, you know, incredibly
02:00:36
◼
►
custom and high performance graphics pipeline, you can do that and you can bake that into
02:00:42
◼
►
the operating system at whatever point where it makes the most sense for your desires because
02:00:46
◼
►
you control the operating system.
02:00:49
◼
►
I just think that a lot of these things going forward that are going to become computerized,
02:00:53
◼
►
they don't need apps.
02:00:54
◼
►
And therefore, it doesn't matter if Samsung can do a good watch and it runs Tizen, but
02:00:59
◼
►
there's no third-party apps for it, that may not matter at all.
02:01:02
◼
►
And where I'm going with this is, to me, the car might be the same thing, where what you
02:01:06
◼
►
want out of your computerized car has nothing to do with third-party apps.
02:01:11
◼
►
I mean, so Tizen is also being used, I believe, in many of their televisions, as well as the
02:01:17
◼
►
new fridge with a tablet built into it and a bunch of this stuff.
02:01:21
◼
►
And, you know, you can laugh, but if every, if every gadget is eventually
02:01:25
◼
►
going to have a screen on it, um, you know, your washing machine or something
02:01:29
◼
►
and the value of the apps, the logic is mostly running in the cloud and, and
02:01:34
◼
►
what you're, um, interacting with is just, you know, either a notification
02:01:38
◼
►
or a, you know, just a button that basically says, run this, this app in
02:01:43
◼
►
the background or respond to a notification or something,
02:01:47
◼
►
then absolutely.
02:01:49
◼
►
It doesn't, you don't really need all the UI development
02:01:52
◼
►
or a separate app running on the device.
02:01:56
◼
►
- Did you see the summon feature for the Teslas?
02:02:02
◼
►
- You know, I feel dumb 'cause I actually had heard
02:02:06
◼
►
about that before but I didn't realize
02:02:08
◼
►
it hadn't been announced.
02:02:10
◼
►
Yeah, I saw that.
02:02:12
◼
►
the type of stuff that I think that's this is the revolution that's coming to the car
02:02:16
◼
►
industry and it has nothing to do with apps, right? Like the fact that you can't get apps
02:02:20
◼
►
for your Tesla does not change anybody's desire to buy a Tesla at all in either direction.
02:02:26
◼
►
Whether you didn't want one before you do. The fact that it's not an app platform is
02:02:30
◼
►
irrelevant. It's the fact that the car can do it. Apps are just the wrong concept for
02:02:35
◼
►
a car. They really are. I mean, I know that there's certain things like maybe you would
02:02:39
◼
►
want something app-like for music,
02:02:42
◼
►
but it doesn't have to be apps.
02:02:43
◼
►
You just wanna get music in your car.
02:02:45
◼
►
And yep, so the summon feature is really cool.
02:02:48
◼
►
It's like you can, you tell your Tesla
02:02:52
◼
►
that you're ready to go to work,
02:02:53
◼
►
and the Tesla will like open the garage door,
02:02:57
◼
►
get outside, and be right there at the curb
02:03:01
◼
►
ready for you to get in and drive.
02:03:04
◼
►
And when you get home, you can just get out of the Tesla
02:03:07
◼
►
in front of your house and go in the front door,
02:03:08
◼
►
and Tesla will go through the nitpicky detail
02:03:12
◼
►
of carefully driving itself into your garage.
02:03:15
◼
►
- And like the crazy long-term thing they said was like,
02:03:19
◼
►
if you're in LA, your car will drive from New York
02:03:22
◼
►
and come pick you up or something like that.
02:03:23
◼
►
- Right, that's absolutely, yeah.
02:03:26
◼
►
Right, right now it's like limited to a very,
02:03:28
◼
►
very near proximity around your house or whatever,
02:03:31
◼
►
but that they've already got it in place,
02:03:34
◼
►
plans in place where you'll be able to do it
02:03:35
◼
►
from any distance where there's contiguous land access.
02:03:39
◼
►
So, you know, you can't make your car magically
02:03:40
◼
►
get itself to Hawaii, but you can.
02:03:43
◼
►
- Yeah, but you can go LA to New York.
02:03:45
◼
►
- Yeah, I love this.
02:03:47
◼
►
I think that the concept of a car
02:03:54
◼
►
and of transport is really changing a lot.
02:03:57
◼
►
And yeah, I mean, it was funny because CES
02:04:01
◼
►
was literally the week before the biggest car show
02:04:05
◼
►
in the world, but it's there that a lot of these companies
02:04:08
◼
►
were making their big announcements
02:04:09
◼
►
because they're all trying to position themselves
02:04:12
◼
►
as technology companies now.
02:04:13
◼
►
And you know, some of them are gonna,
02:04:17
◼
►
what I love about Tesla is just that these ideas
02:04:21
◼
►
are so wacky, but then they just release a software update
02:04:25
◼
►
and they're there, like the self-driving mode.
02:04:27
◼
►
I don't think anyone the week before was like,
02:04:30
◼
►
"Oh, I wonder when my Tesla's gonna be able to drive itself."
02:04:33
◼
►
And then Elon Musk is like, "Here it is, boom."
02:04:36
◼
►
And I think they even have to dial it back now
02:04:38
◼
►
'cause it was like a little too crazy.
02:04:42
◼
►
- Did I mention this on the show?
02:04:45
◼
►
I forget if I did or not.
02:04:46
◼
►
I have such a terrible podcast amnesia,
02:04:48
◼
►
but that I got to ride in a self-driving Mercedes Benz.
02:04:53
◼
►
- And it was amazing.
02:04:54
◼
►
It's truly, truly amazing.
02:04:56
◼
►
Mercedes flew a bunch of, not a bunch,
02:04:59
◼
►
a small number of writers out.
02:05:01
◼
►
And I don't know why they picked me,
02:05:02
◼
►
but I didn't question it.
02:05:04
◼
►
- Where'd you go?
02:05:05
◼
►
- Sunnydale, Sunnyvale, Mountain View,
02:05:08
◼
►
somewhere out there, somewhere out,
02:05:10
◼
►
it's out in the valley, down the street from Yahoo.
02:05:12
◼
►
And got to ride in a self-driving S-Class.
02:05:17
◼
►
We went out on the highway and the car drove,
02:05:20
◼
►
did everything, it was amazing.
02:05:23
◼
►
And it works, it absolutely works.
02:05:25
◼
►
And it's not perfect yet, obviously,
02:05:28
◼
►
But if anything, all of the imperfections
02:05:30
◼
►
are on the side of being conservative.
02:05:32
◼
►
It is, it's a very heavy breaker.
02:05:35
◼
►
It breaks very, very aggressively.
02:05:36
◼
►
We were heading up like an on-ramp
02:05:39
◼
►
to get onto a highway and go high-speed driving.
02:05:42
◼
►
And it was later in the afternoon
02:05:44
◼
►
and we were heading right into the sun.
02:05:46
◼
►
And basically, just talking to their engineers,
02:05:50
◼
►
all of the things that make driving hard for humans
02:05:52
◼
►
are the exact same thing that make self-driving hard.
02:05:54
◼
►
If you have trouble seeing,
02:05:55
◼
►
the cameras on the car have trouble seeing as well.
02:05:57
◼
►
And it was really a lot of glare.
02:05:59
◼
►
And it braked going up the ramp because the glare was so bad
02:06:03
◼
►
that it couldn't really even see.
02:06:05
◼
►
It was like the status indicated was just like,
02:06:07
◼
►
can't tell what's ahead, therefore it's going to stop.
02:06:10
◼
►
And it was an unnatural thing
02:06:12
◼
►
that a human wouldn't have done.
02:06:14
◼
►
And a couple of other times,
02:06:16
◼
►
it broke a little bit too aggressively.
02:06:18
◼
►
But for the most part, I think you could easily,
02:06:20
◼
►
if you didn't tell somebody,
02:06:21
◼
►
I think you could, and blindfolded them,
02:06:23
◼
►
I think that you could easily,
02:06:25
◼
►
the cars they already have today
02:06:27
◼
►
could easily fool somebody in thinking
02:06:29
◼
►
that a human did the driving.
02:06:31
◼
►
- That's great.
02:06:33
◼
►
Yeah, that's gonna be awesome.
02:06:34
◼
►
- So one of the questions I asked them was,
02:06:37
◼
►
do they anticipate, and that they're obviously solving,
02:06:40
◼
►
they're solving really, really fascinating
02:06:43
◼
►
AI engineering problems, hardware, software, sensors,
02:06:47
◼
►
the braking systems and the software,
02:06:49
◼
►
of course, to drive all this,
02:06:50
◼
►
but they're also solving legislative
02:06:53
◼
►
and regulatory problems at the same time.
02:06:56
◼
►
And do they, like right now, I said,
02:06:59
◼
►
I could go buy a Mercedes Benz.
02:07:00
◼
►
Any Benz I drive off the lot, I can instantly go
02:07:03
◼
►
and greatly exceed any speed limit in the United States
02:07:07
◼
►
at my own discretion.
02:07:08
◼
►
Will I have that ability in a self-driving car?
02:07:11
◼
►
And I was told quite bluntly, no.
02:07:15
◼
►
There's almost no chance that it would be legal
02:07:17
◼
►
for them to make a self-driving car
02:07:19
◼
►
that'll exceed speed limits, which is kind of weird.
02:07:22
◼
►
And it's gonna drive the sort of libertarian mindset
02:07:25
◼
►
people I think a little nutty, but their explanation was, "But why do you want to drive faster
02:07:29
◼
►
now?" It's because you're bored. And if you're not paying attention to the road, if you're
02:07:36
◼
►
just reading or watching TV or whatever on your way to work, you're not going to care
02:07:40
◼
►
that it takes five minutes longer.
02:07:42
◼
►
Totally. And I think I also saw something similar with the Tesla thing where it's programmed
02:07:51
◼
►
that it could maybe go, I think, five miles over the limit or something like that based
02:07:54
◼
►
on where it is? I'm not sure, I may be making that up, but I thought I read something about
02:07:58
◼
►
that. And then of course, if you need to go faster, there's the flying car that they had
02:08:04
◼
►
at CES too, the scary quadcopter with a person in it. Did you see that?
02:08:11
◼
►
No, I did not.
02:08:12
◼
►
Oh yeah, that's the, it was like a human-sized drone.
02:08:16
◼
►
So great, so we got that to look forward to.
02:08:20
◼
►
The one thing talking to people at Mercedes is they were very, they, you know, it's, they
02:08:27
◼
►
are very confident in their ability and that they are going to have world class self driving
02:08:31
◼
►
cars. I mean, I wrote in one that already was real, the real deal. Um, but they're talking,
02:08:37
◼
►
they, they, they divide this, the stages of self driving cars in like four levels and
02:08:42
◼
►
like level one is like the stuff that we already have. You can get on the market today where
02:08:46
◼
►
where you can set your car to maintain distance
02:08:49
◼
►
from the car in front of it.
02:08:50
◼
►
And that Tesla has a feature where you can turn on a thing
02:08:54
◼
►
and it'll do the highway driving for you.
02:08:57
◼
►
But part of stage one is that stage one means
02:09:02
◼
►
you still have a human driver who is expected
02:09:06
◼
►
to be able to take over the control of the car in an instant,
02:09:09
◼
►
like hands ready to take over at all times.
02:09:13
◼
►
And that's where the industry is today
02:09:15
◼
►
in terms of what's on the market,
02:09:17
◼
►
and that they were absolutely,
02:09:18
◼
►
it was like they considered it almost seemingly,
02:09:21
◼
►
this wasn't what they said,
02:09:22
◼
►
but reading between the lines,
02:09:23
◼
►
it seemed like they were angry,
02:09:25
◼
►
and it was like a setback to the industry
02:09:28
◼
►
that when Tesla first made this feature available,
02:09:30
◼
►
that jackasses were setting up GoPros
02:09:32
◼
►
and showing themselves reading the newspaper
02:09:35
◼
►
while their car drove.
02:09:36
◼
►
There was a guy who got in the backseat of his Tesla
02:09:39
◼
►
while it was on a highway in California.
02:09:43
◼
►
And that it's so, that's not, that's not,
02:09:46
◼
►
you're not supposed to do that.
02:09:48
◼
►
And somebody's gonna do that in a disaster,
02:09:51
◼
►
you know, they're gonna have a catastrophic accident
02:09:53
◼
►
because of it and it's going to, you know,
02:09:56
◼
►
the fear is it's gonna make people say,
02:09:58
◼
►
we should ban self-driving cars
02:10:00
◼
►
before they even get a chance to do it.
02:10:03
◼
►
Who would do that?
02:10:07
◼
►
What kind of a-- - Yeah.
02:10:09
◼
►
- And it really is funny.
02:10:10
◼
►
It's like, it's just like some random Yahoo
02:10:13
◼
►
with a Tesla is gonna ruin this for everybody.
02:10:16
◼
►
- Yeah, I think if you go on YouTube
02:10:18
◼
►
and search like Tesla fail,
02:10:19
◼
►
you'll find some people who were very surprised
02:10:23
◼
►
by what they were recording.
02:10:25
◼
►
But yeah, I mean, it's interesting.
02:10:29
◼
►
And I'm sure we've seen other tech example.
02:10:33
◼
►
I mean, it's not too dissimilar
02:10:35
◼
►
from what we're seeing with Airbnb and Uber,
02:10:38
◼
►
where there's the company that wants to
02:10:42
◼
►
kind of skirt the way that things have always been
02:10:43
◼
►
and then reality which will fit somewhere in the middle.
02:10:47
◼
►
- I just think bottom line for Apple is that
02:10:49
◼
►
until they get to their car comes out,
02:10:51
◼
►
which is even if everything goes swimmingly,
02:10:53
◼
►
it's gonna be 2020, 21 or something like that.
02:10:56
◼
►
I think, I don't see how they can get it out before 2020.
02:11:02
◼
►
But who knows?
02:11:02
◼
►
But even if I'm wrong,
02:11:04
◼
►
it's not gonna be that much earlier.
02:11:06
◼
►
Until then, I don't see how they can do anything
02:11:08
◼
►
to create like a totally grossly inflate
02:11:13
◼
►
the revenue of the company, right?
02:11:17
◼
►
Like watches and other things that they could do
02:11:20
◼
►
in the interim.
02:11:20
◼
►
The watch is a good business, but like you said,
02:11:22
◼
►
like a billion here and a billion there
02:11:24
◼
►
doesn't move the line for Apple very much.
02:11:26
◼
►
- Right, unless it's the kind of thing
02:11:28
◼
►
where almost everyone within iPhone gets one too,
02:11:32
◼
►
but then it's still smaller than the iPhone.
02:11:34
◼
►
It's still, it's basically accessory level.
02:11:37
◼
►
- But I think that the Wall Street's desire
02:11:39
◼
►
for Apple to do that is just magical thinking.
02:11:42
◼
►
And I think it's good as somebody who wants the company
02:11:45
◼
►
to continue doing good work.
02:11:47
◼
►
It's good that they're, by all appearances,
02:11:50
◼
►
are not obsessed with finding another iPhone.
02:11:54
◼
►
I think that they knew going into it
02:11:55
◼
►
that the watch was not going to be like the iPhone,
02:11:57
◼
►
and they did it anyway.
02:11:59
◼
►
And I think that's as it should be.
02:12:00
◼
►
I think the phone is like a once in a generation opportunity.
02:12:05
◼
►
- Yeah, I don't think anything can be like the iPhone,
02:12:08
◼
►
at least in the next, you know,
02:12:10
◼
►
at least knowing what we know today about the world,
02:12:14
◼
►
I don't think there's gonna be another product
02:12:16
◼
►
that is like the iPhone for Apple.
02:12:18
◼
►
- Right, it's just a perfect storm of everything.
02:12:22
◼
►
It's this device that everybody wants one
02:12:25
◼
►
and that they have engineering advantages.
02:12:28
◼
►
- Just couldn't be-- - And the price is hidden,
02:12:32
◼
►
all that stuff. - Right, right, right.
02:12:34
◼
►
that nobody even knows what they're really paying for it.
02:12:36
◼
►
And they just, the industry just keeps finding new ways
02:12:39
◼
►
to further obfuscate just how much you're paying.
02:12:44
◼
►
- I love it when you tell somebody that,
02:12:45
◼
►
like if you just buy a no contract iPhone,
02:12:48
◼
►
that it's, you know, eight or nine hundred dollars,
02:12:49
◼
►
and they're like, well I would never pay that.
02:12:51
◼
►
But yet, they have an iPhone.
02:12:53
◼
►
It's like, trust me, you're paying it.
02:12:56
◼
►
Anything else?
02:13:00
◼
►
- That's good, I think.
02:13:01
◼
►
- All right, Dan Fromer at Quartz,
02:13:03
◼
►
That's qz.com.
02:13:04
◼
►
I'll make sure to throw in a couple links
02:13:07
◼
►
to your CES stuff.
02:13:08
◼
►
- I didn't do much, so I'll send you what I did.
02:13:12
◼
►
But, which was nice.
02:13:15
◼
►
- Well, it's always good talking to you.
02:13:17
◼
►
- Yep, From Dome on Twitter.
02:13:18
◼
►
- From Dome on Twitter.
02:13:19
◼
►
And citynotes.co.