85: ‘Oh Man, Soccer’ With Paul Kafasis
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Do you have that too? Don't you have that? Am I making this up that you've got your second
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toe sticks out further than your big toe?
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No, I always called that a freak toe when I was little.
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Yeah. Supposedly it means you're going to be financially well off when you get older.
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I actually looked it up years ago and I think that's like genetically the more common one.
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So having it not be that way is actually the freakish way, but it still looks weird to
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me. Like you don't ever draw a foot that way.
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No, you would never draw a foot that way.
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But I remember that the tips of my second and third toes would be just blistered to
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And so I would get up earlier or I would skip breakfast and go to the trainer.
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It's sort of like being a pro athlete.
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There's like a nice professional.
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It was at Kutztown University in Pennsylvania.
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And you'd go to the trainer and there was a real college athletic trainer and he would
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like take razor blades to your blisters and do them right.
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Geoff - Is that the treatment?
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Dave - Well, I wouldn't recommend doing it yourself.
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It seems like it was, you know, it was like a fine line between cutting off too much of
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the skin and too little, but oh, it hurt like hell in the morning.
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And it would just feel like I can't… oh, it was terrible.
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It's like you couldn't even walk.
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But then after a while, it just sort of, you know, you just get numb to the pain and then
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you, you know, just play.
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Never much for summer camp. We used to have a playground, like a local playground would
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run, pay high school kids to supervise from like 9 to noon in the morning. And it'd be
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like supervised kickball games and box hockey and arts and crafts.
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Who's paying the insurance on that?
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I don't, I think it was like a, you know, this would be like the very late 70s and early
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eighties i think it was a holdout from us smaller simpler america's just gonna
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say it's a simpler time right where where the municipal the city's the
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little town where i grew up the municipal government paid for it somehow
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it was in the school like they'd open up a little hallway in the school
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which is next to the playground so the end there was a ping pong table in there
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you could play ping pong when it rained um and that's where the bathroom must
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have been because you need at least one right and there was a bathroom
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uh and it you know a locker a little locker where they'd keep the kick balls
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and the bases and stuff like that.
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Right, right.
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And then they'd open it up at night too.
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It was like six to eight at night or something like that.
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It's like they'd be closed from like noon to six and everybody would go to the community
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pool or whatever, but from like nine to noon and six to eight they'd be open up.
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Gotta keep you off the street somehow, I guess.
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Yeah, I guess.
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I don't know.
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I grew up in like a housing development, so we had, I don't know, a couple dozen kids
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all around the same age.
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So that was, we sort of had our own makeshift camp, I think.
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Yeah, I didn't know anybody who went to camp camp though.
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Like I said, if your parents love you, they keep you around, I think.
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I think Jonas has mixed feelings about it.
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Seems like a nice camp.
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He loves to swim, they've got a pool, they play games and stuff.
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But I feel like his view is that the inside of our house is sort of like a camp.
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It's got way better video games.
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Yeah, we've got video games and air conditioning.
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You don't have to take a bus to get there. Right, a refrigerator full of cold beverages,
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and that's about it. Alright, well we gotta get this show on the road, because there's
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some exciting soccer matches coming up that I really, really want to see, so... Is this
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true? No, of course it's not. Soccer's the worst! You're not following the world cup?
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I am following it, and I am hating every minute of it, because I'm a masochist, I'm following
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it. Did you ever play soccer? No, like, you know, gym soccer, and I was half-decent, but
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But no, I never went out for any of the teams or anything.
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No, I didn't either.
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It just seemed interminable to me.
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And I think playing it is way better than watching it.
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I don't even know about that.
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I don't know.
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It just felt so clumsy to me.
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It seems to me like basketball and soccer are peer sports.
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Two teams, they're going for goals.
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There's severe limits on how you can touch and advance the ball.
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It seems like to me, always seemed to me like basketball was the one where, what is it that
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separates us from the other animals?
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It's our hands.
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Right, right.
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And we're purposely not using them in this one sport.
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Well, I mean, the obvious corollary is really hockey, though.
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But hockey manages to be way more exciting than soccer to me.
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And again, you get to use your hands.
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A little bit.
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Or at least a stick that's, you know, in your hands.
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Right, right.
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I think Greece is playing today, but I hate every minute of this.
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I'm glad it's only once every four years.
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Do you root for the Greeks, just out of family heritage?
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Eh, you know, for my dad maybe.
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I honestly never cared.
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I was born in America, I'm an American.
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But I'm only...
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Well, I guess I'm 50% Greek, so that's pretty Greek.
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But I don't really...
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Trust me, you're pretty Greek.
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seen my forearms. You were going there. I went there first. Fuck you.
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What's his name? Montero is rooting for the Portuguese.
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Yeah, and he is--
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I don't know if he's even serious or if he's just trying to--
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It really seemed like trolling, and I hope it was, because it was either trolling or
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he is like the worst sports fan I've ever seen, worse than you even.
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Right, because how could you not be rooting for the Americans?
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Well, I mean, like, if he wants to root for the Portuguese, that's alright, but like,
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if you followed his Twitter stream during the Portugal-US match, it was just...
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I mean, it was just...
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You'd want to throw something through the wall.
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Yeah, I kind of got the feeling that he was just trolling when he started complaining
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about the refs, who I don't think were in the US's favor at all.
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I don't think...
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I think it was a well-refereed match.
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Well, and he... and like, on Dempsey's goal, he was... he kept calling for an offside,
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and then meanwhile, the announcers are not... like, it wasn't even close.
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Well, it wasn't like it wasn't as if there was any question on offside. So, all right
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the only questionable thing in the officiating there was the extra the one extra minute of
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Extra it went from four to five minutes, right?
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Right, that's when they scored in that and that's when they scored was in the fifth
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Yeah, and supposedly they're saying that the I would I read after the match was that the whoever whoever the mysterious?
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Referee is who gets to decide how many minutes of extra time there is added another
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fifth minute so he added four and then he added one on on the last US substitution where the US the guy being
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Substituted was like crawling off the field
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Which is possibly justified although from what the announcer said is is a time-honored tradition. Oh well
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It's horrible. I mean this is this is what happened against Ghana the past two World Cups
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That you know, they got a lead and then they were just everybody was suddenly struck down by injury
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Balls are being kicked out of the stadium. We don't have any more balls. Somebody get a pump
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well, I mean what I don't I
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Have so many complaints about soccer
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But the one that really gets me is that we can use the stop button on a stopwatch
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It is literally called a stopwatch
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Because you can start the time and then you can stop it
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Instead of just letting it run for 45 minutes and then saying yeah, there was about two minutes of extra time
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We need to add yeah, it seems it seems like some kind of bizarre antiquated
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You know think holdover from a hundred years ago, right, but then meanwhile they've got like like
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Like the television crew at least has like the offsides camera that is like showing exactly where the player was
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with like computer renderings and stuff
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So, I mean it's not as if the game has is the same that it is played in
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You know a desert or a back alley or something
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Like the game though the World Cup games are professional level. We can use a stopwatch properly. Yeah, I don't I don't get that
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I don't get why they don't run it simple just stop if the ref decides. Hey, this is a real injury
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I'm blowing my whistle then there's a timekeeper who hits a red button exactly and then when he blows his whistle again
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They hit the red button again, and then it's 90 minutes and it's 90 minutes, right?
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And at 9-0-0-0 a buzzer goes off and the game is over.
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Because there's also the weird thing at the end, you know, and it was almost, almost got
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to that point in the US Portugal match where there is no automatic buzzer that goes off.
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There's a ref who decides to blow the whistle and if the team is down by one goal and streaming
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down the sideline and has a play, right.
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That bothers me as an American.
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just logically like as a nerd it's annoying like this yeah this nebulous nature of the clock and
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yeah whereas i love i do love and and our mutual friend and and he's been slowly getting me more
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into the game over the years guy english is big you know grew up in i don't know some kind of
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soccer playing country uh has been preaching to me that it's a beautiful you know that it's the
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beautiful game and that there's aspects and there's parts of it that i am getting more into
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to. But I do love, I love the fact that it's a running clock. That it's, you know, they
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start a half and for the next 45 minutes you're just watching these guys play.
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Well, I mean, that's the great aspect of it, that there's no commercials like cutting into
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Just a half-time full of commercials and then they've, you know, and it's funny, it's like
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the nature of the, it's just like the web and anything else. If you want to sell ads,
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nature of the opportunity, the advertisers will find a way.
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Oh, I mean...
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So they have those sponsorships along the sidelines.
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Which are, like, way worse than the boards in hockey, or way more noticeable, and...
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Yeah, but it's way better than commercial breaks.
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Oh, no, no, no, absolutely, absolutely. Well, but I think, I don't know how much... I think
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that's part of the issue with soccer in America, is that I think there's not nearly as much
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money in it, even with all those ads, because it just doesn't ever total up to as much as
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you would make from selling a few commercial ads, like video ads.
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Yeah, but somehow the Premier League in Europe makes tons of money in that they can afford
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to pay guys, you know, it's commensurate with US, you know, professional sports in terms
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of the top player salaries and the value of the franchise.
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Yeah, I think so.
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Well, I mean, they all come up, like Beckham came here to make his money.
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I'm sure he made some in England, but...
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Yeah, but he's sort of like, you know, he's like an A-Rod type where it's, and I don't
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mean that to be disparaging to him, but where his celebrity far extended beyond sports.
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you know that he had opportunities that were beyond just his soccer playing ability.
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Well, I don't know, we didn't do any research.
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Yeah, we should really talk more about soccer on your tech podcast with both of us that don't
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really like soccer. The fans are gonna love that.
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Well, but the thing that to me is interesting, though, in terms of like the advertising finding
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a way is that in the Premier League, the teams are sponsored.
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Right. And their jerseys are like, they have ads on their jerseys, don't they?
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Right, I forget which team is which, but I know that I watched a match, I don't know
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how I got tricked into watching a Premier League match a couple months ago, and one
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had the Emirates airline.
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Yeah, right.
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And airlines are big because they're international, and that they, you know, the international
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appeal of it is, you know, makes it a perfect opportunity.
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Right, right.
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And they just have a big, instead of having the team name on the jersey, it's a big airline
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logo on the jersey.
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Which would, you know, to an American is crazy, like can you, I mean...
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If the Red Sox or the Yankees had a big logo, somebody, some other company's logo would
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be disgusting Yankees Yankees don't even put their player names on the jersey
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that's right Derek Jeter's Jersey just says to even that's all the away Jersey
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right right it just says to it's his number that's all it says I can't even
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imagine if it had like a big Pepsi logo but that's the opportunity and the nature
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of the game is such is that there aren't any breaks right right and so I do like
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that i like that you can kind of just say okay i want to watch the u_s_ play
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somebody and you've you know you only have to give up like you know
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to its exactly two hours yeah exactly right
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and it just flows
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anyway let's make a prediction you think the u_s_ is going to make it into the
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elimination of crowd while tell you what the only reason i'm watching it all is
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because i have a uh... a pool going with some friends
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whose prize is a landon donovan world cup jersey
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Wait, is that for the loser or the winner?
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That's for the winner.
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They must have printed these jerseys up before he was not selected for the team.
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So we found this on eBay, and that's going to be the prize for the winner.
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So I have them losing.
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I had Germany and Portugal advancing.
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So I don't know.
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They played well against Portugal.
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They could have won that game.
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Should have won that game.
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I've got Brazil winning the whole thing, though.
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I go hometown.
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I go one of the best soccer teams.
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Yeah, and eventually the refs are gonna fix it for him.
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There'll be some kind of match and it'll be a terrible handball or something like that.
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Have you noticed the, I don't know how much of the commercials you've seen, because there
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are some during the half, but there's a FIFA ad that is a soccer ball rolling on a field
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and the field tilts.
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Have you seen this?
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No, I don't think so.
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The gist of it is that it's a FIFA ad and it says "Together we fight match manipulation."
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And it's absurd that you need an ad to tell the fans like, "We're fighting against corruption
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Right. Well, did you see that New York Times story a couple weeks ago?
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About the previous South Africa, right?
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Yeah. The one FIFA ref just took a cash deposit of $120,000 to the bank.
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Just rolled into the bank with it, and then six hours later was reffing a match.
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Right. Making suspicious calls.
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Yeah, no attempt to hide it even.
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The whole thing is crooked.
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Yeah, and it stems from the fact that they picked the referees via international diplomacy
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where it's, "Hey, we need a guy from this part of the world, this guy from this part
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of the world, this part of the world," as opposed to ranking them by their...
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These are the best refs.
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Which is how US sports typically are done.
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in the NFL for the playoff games there's like a systematic analysis of which referees were
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the most accurate in a regular season and those refs get to ref playoff games. And I
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think it's the same in baseball. I think that there's like a...
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It's definitely the veteran teams at least. I don't know if it's... But if you're a veteran
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team, it's because you've done well over the years.
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Right. And one thing you could definitely say for Major League Baseball is for all the
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problems that they've had over the decades, one thing is that there's never really been
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any kind of even hint or whiff of implication of anything other yeah
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there's umpires you can complain about but it's never in terms of bias or
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fixing matches or no you just think they're inconsistent with their strike
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zone or right it just allows the umpire but never a great umpire they had they
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truly have an impeccable you know 100 you know century-long reputation for
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Uncorruptibility, yeah. Yeah, being impartial. Yeah. And you take that for granted when you
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hear what the feedback has to put an ad on that says we're trying to keep this fair.
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Oh man, soccer. Let's move on. I said ahead of time that I wasn't going to get into it,
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and I'm not into it, but I'm still watching it, and I don't want to talk about it.
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Alright, well alright one last thing that I'll say thank thank God they got rid of those goddamn noise make oh the vous aylas. Yeah
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I don't want to you can cut this but those were great for our company because
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There was a plug-in called vuvu X and it was an audio plug-in that let you cut out the sound of vuvuzela
00:16:02
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What and audio hijack Pro worked with this plug-in so people were using audio hijack Pro in this plug-in to to remove the the the?
00:16:09
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Buzzing noise from the background. No, there's no reason to cut it
00:16:13
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I don't mind well when you were watching the matches it was if you could get that's fantastic a vuvuzela
00:16:18
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D a divu vuzela plug-in yeah vuvu X that's fantastic good
00:16:24
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You know it was so annoying that it doesn't surprise me in the least that somebody took the time to get rid of it
00:16:30
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Yeah, well, but I mean that was like an African thing so I guess you know they don't have that in Brazil
00:16:35
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I don't know what they have there, but nothing quite so well. They've apparently banned it though. Did they really yeah that you?
00:16:40
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you know that they're telling you as you come into the stadium that if you're caught with one you're gonna get kicked out
00:16:44
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GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
00:17:14
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I, you've changed it up a little bit. The set looks different. I was looking at the
00:17:20
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talk show page now versus, I think I was on sometime last year. You got rid of the wood
00:17:26
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paneling. You got rid of the skeuomorphism, if you will. You toned it down to a flat gray.
00:17:33
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Thank you, Paul.
00:17:35
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Did you see this where FAA, I just sent you this link, this is late breaking news before
00:17:39
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we started recording that the FAA has put the Nix on Amazon's drone delivery plans.
00:17:45
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Well, which didn't, I mean the drones didn't exist anyway, or you know, it's not as if
00:17:50
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this was like they're in the air right now and they're calling them back because of this
00:17:55
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You know, I read that article, it indicated that this was something the FAA had already
00:18:02
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attempted to ban, right?
00:18:07
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It occurred to me when Amazon announced this, was it months ago, was it last year, I don't
00:18:11
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know when it was.
00:18:12
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Early this year, early last year.
00:18:13
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Yeah, it occurred to me that it just seems like, well, this, it's a cool idea and I could
00:18:19
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see how in the future this could be a thing, but it's got to be, there's got to be some
00:18:26
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regulatory structure here.
00:18:27
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You can't just have anybody who wants to willy-nilly flying things through the air.
00:18:33
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Especially propeller driven things.
00:18:35
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Well, I mean, even when they announced it, they said this was—I mean, they announced
00:18:42
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it and it made a big—you know, it got a big PR cry, and that was what they wanted.
00:18:48
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But it wasn't as if they announced it, like, coming in six months.
00:18:50
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They said, "This is coming in several years once we deal with the FAA."
00:18:57
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So this story now doesn't really—I don't think it really changes anything for Amazon.
00:19:03
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It just sort of clarifies that no, you cannot just start doing it.
00:19:06
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Right, right.
00:19:07
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It's not happening next week.
00:19:09
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You're not getting drone deliveries within the next few months at least.
00:19:12
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It just fits to me though with like, and to a lesser degree it's Amazon, but it's Google's
00:19:19
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MO to me is to just announce crazy shit that's not even close to being real and get people
00:19:25
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all excited about it.
00:19:28
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And to me it just distracts from the best of what's really real.
00:19:34
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And being announced today.
00:19:35
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Well, for Amazon I think it's probably actually pretty effective because it says, "Oh, they're
00:19:40
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really focused on delivery and even if they can't do this yet, I should still buy stuff
00:19:44
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Because it was only, it was an ancillary thing.
00:19:46
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It wasn't as if, I mean probably some people would have ordered stuff just to get a drone
00:19:50
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to deliver it to them.
00:19:51
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I probably would have.
00:19:53
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Yeah, I would do that.
00:19:54
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But I mean it wasn't as if they said, you know, "This is the service."
00:19:56
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They said, you know, we're working to make shipping on what you buy as fast as possible.
00:20:01
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So it's not as if they were actually selling the drone delivery.
00:20:04
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Whereas I think you're right, in terms of Google, there's a lot of stuff that they pre-announce
00:20:09
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or announce when it's, you know, sort of half-baked and it's something that you might actually
00:20:13
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want to buy directly, but either it's not available, like Google Glass has been.
00:20:19
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This year they've had a couple, like anyone can buy it days, right?
00:20:23
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But for the most part, it's still $1500.
00:20:25
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is much more than they planned to charge for it, and for the most part it's just been available
00:20:30
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to select developers. So it's something that's in the public consciousness but not actually
00:20:35
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available to the public.
00:20:36
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So, you know, and we're recording this the day, I think one day before the Google I/O
00:20:41
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keynote. It could be, you know, by the day or two from now there's a big new Google Glass
00:20:46
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announcement where either A) they've radically dropped the price, or B) they've got a new
00:20:50
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generational hardware that's less obtrusive and significantly improved.
00:20:56
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But I don't really expect that.
00:20:57
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Well, but even if that's true, and it may well be, but it's been what?
00:21:03
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A year at least, a year plus since it first has landed in people's hands.
00:21:07
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Yeah, two years, right?
00:21:09
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And it doesn't really exist as a product.
00:21:11
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It's not a product you can go into the store and buy.
00:21:14
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And that's strange to me.
00:21:16
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And I think your comparison is generally going to be to Apple, where you don't hear anything
00:21:19
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about it until it's either in the stores or it's going to be in the stores very soon.
00:21:25
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And in a form that is exactly as promised.
00:21:28
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Like, you know, they did pre-announce the iPhone.
00:21:30
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I was just going to say the iPhone is sort of the exception.
00:21:32
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But even that, nothing that they pre-announced, I mean, was there anything that was missing
00:21:37
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in the final product?
00:21:38
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►
No, in fact, it was better because they switched from plastic to Gorilla Glass like a month
00:21:45
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►
beforehand which to me is one of those like secret like little overlooked
00:21:49
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►
historical things where it's like can you even imagine being Tim Cook and it's
00:21:53
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like you're trying to get this super high-profile thing shipped and from
00:21:57
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►
China and like Steve Jobs comes in and was like hey plastics no good I've got
00:22:03
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►
these guys from Corning on the phone and I think we can switch to glass and it's
00:22:06
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►
like May right it's like six weeks before you're supposed to ship the thing
00:22:11
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►
and somehow he made it happen was it that I mean do you I don't know it was
00:22:14
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I mean even if it was six months, it's ridiculous.
00:22:19
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Well it was definitely after January.
00:22:21
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I think that one of the books might have had that.
00:22:24
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Maybe like the Jobs biography had this story.
00:22:27
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Maybe it was like April or something like that.
00:22:28
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But like you said, at any point between January and June, it's amazing.
00:22:32
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It should be finalized.
00:22:35
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It was like the most important part of the phone.
00:22:38
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It was the thing that was most different and original and new.
00:22:41
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►
they switched from hard plastic to Gorilla Glass. And the apps got better in some ways.
00:22:48
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►
I forget, there were a couple of days. It was better than Promise, though. And then
00:22:52
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two months after that, when they dropped the price, it even came down in price.
00:22:55
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►
Right, right. So yeah, in that first generation, it wound up being better than they had originally
00:23:00
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►
promised, which is something they never do anyway, as far as originally announcing something
00:23:05
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►
before it's available.
00:23:07
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►
Right. Like, whereas the opposite would have been if they'd promised it was gonna be Gorilla
00:23:11
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►
Glass and promised it was gonna be $3.99 and then they shipped it and it was scratchable
00:23:16
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►
plastic and $6.99.
00:23:18
◼
►
Right. Right.
00:23:19
◼
►
Well, and I'm also reminded of this, that showing these concepts and sort of conflating
00:23:27
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►
between the concepts and reality with this thing I saw over the weekend and linked up
00:23:32
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►
Oh, the armband?
00:23:33
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►
Google gesture. Right.
00:23:35
◼
►
and Mashable linked it up as though it was real and then a couple of Android sites picked
00:23:40
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►
it up after Mashable. And what it really was, was just a student exercise from, I forget,
00:23:47
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►
some advertising school in Stockholm.
00:23:49
◼
►
In Europe or something, right?
00:23:51
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►
Yeah. I think it was Stockholm. Berg School of Communication. And it was a bunch of students
00:23:56
◼
►
who made a video of a fake Google product called Google Gesture where you put this armband
00:24:01
◼
►
on and it would translate sign language to verbal speech in real time.
00:24:08
◼
►
Which is a little fantastic given that it doesn't, you know, Google has great text to
00:24:16
◼
►
speech and speech to text but it still isn't quite as real time as what they were showing
00:24:22
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►
for this armband for sign language.
00:24:28
◼
►
All it was though, it had nothing to do with Google.
00:24:30
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►
not engineering students, they're not working with, it's not like a computer science project,
00:24:34
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►
they're advertising.
00:24:36
◼
►
It was just an exercise to say like, make a fantastic product and then make an ad for
00:24:43
◼
►
But Mashable went with it as though it was real and so did other sites.
00:24:45
◼
►
And I feel like, you know, shame on them for not looking at it a little harder.
00:24:50
◼
►
The signs were all there that this was not real.
00:24:52
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►
But it still to me is a little telling though that they got fooled because it's, you know,
00:24:58
◼
►
Google tends to announce stuff that's not real yet.
00:25:01
◼
►
Right, right. What was the last... the last sentence was "no shipping date for the
00:25:04
◼
►
app has been announced yet."
00:25:06
◼
►
In the... in the Mashable... yeah, in the Mashable piece, right.
00:25:10
◼
►
Well, I don't know. That... I mean, that happens with... it doesn't happen in the same way
00:25:13
◼
►
with Apple, but
00:25:15
◼
►
there's all sorts of writing about Apple about
00:25:18
◼
►
the iWatch that's coming, and
00:25:20
◼
►
it's written as if this is a certainty and as if Apple has already announced it.
00:25:24
◼
►
And it drives me crazy.
00:25:26
◼
►
Yeah, absolutely. Because well, and the thing I brought it up with Mark Gurman a couple
00:25:30
◼
►
weeks ago when he was on the show, the thing that gets me is the way those articles are
00:25:34
◼
►
always accompanied by visual mock up from some random, you know, designer on flicker
00:25:39
◼
►
or dribble or wherever. Right. And and there's a tiny little credit to like a name. But it
00:25:47
◼
►
doesn't really say it never says this is just a crazy mock up that is unrelated to the rumor
00:25:52
◼
►
that I were publishing.
00:25:53
◼
►
It just goes well with the story, but don't take it as fact or even as anything.
00:26:00
◼
►
In fact, there was one a couple of weeks ago, it doesn't really matter which site it was,
00:26:05
◼
►
but it was one of these sites like 9to5Mac.
00:26:07
◼
►
And it wasn't a Mark Gurman story, it was somebody else.
00:26:08
◼
►
But it might have been 9to5Mac, it might have been somebody else.
00:26:10
◼
►
But it was a story about, or maybe it was a Gurman, I don't know, it doesn't matter.
00:26:17
◼
►
But it was about this thing where that iOS 8 is rumored to be, like in the fall when
00:26:25
◼
►
new iPads come out, that there's going to be split screen mode between multiple apps,
00:26:31
◼
►
So was this before the developer's conference or after?
00:26:35
◼
►
Okay, so before this had been a rumor, but then they didn't mention it at the conference,
00:26:39
◼
►
so we're assuming it's not happening.
00:26:41
◼
►
And somebody had poking around the iOS 8 beta had found some stuff that's in there that
00:26:49
◼
►
suggests, yeah, there's these...
00:26:52
◼
►
We can actually come back to this later in the show, but these different screen modes,
00:26:56
◼
►
like two-thirds, one-third, one-half, one-half.
00:27:02
◼
►
And so this article was describing what's actually in the iOS beta hidden, which isn't
00:27:11
◼
►
we still don't really know like the actual interactive like what is the act how are you going to invoke it and drag it along and
00:27:17
◼
►
Stuff like that and in meantime they had an illustration
00:27:19
◼
►
showing something completely different from like somebody from months ago just
00:27:23
◼
►
Speculating when the rumor first came out or right it didn't even match what was being described, right?
00:27:30
◼
►
But yet was done in a very
00:27:33
◼
►
highly detailed visual style that conveys a sense of authority and and of reality as if this is real and
00:27:40
◼
►
Right, like it would be different. It would be stupid. They wouldn't do it
00:27:43
◼
►
But like if somebody who's you know
00:27:45
◼
►
Not really an artist like me took like a field notes notebook and just did like a simple sketch
00:27:52
◼
►
On artistic just a pen on paper and said it's sort of like this right a couple of rectangles in an arrow
00:27:58
◼
►
That would be one thing but it's these completely
00:28:01
◼
►
Flushed down ideas. Yeah, like a hundred percent articulated in Photoshop idea, you know, and it drives me nuts
00:28:08
◼
►
You know every and you could just you can find hundreds of these stories about like the iWatch right that are accompanied by these illustrations
00:28:15
◼
►
Makes me crazy. Let me tell you about take a break talk about our first sponsor
00:28:20
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Happy to say I always love to say this I think pretty sure a new sponsor never before sponsored the talk show
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It's a company called Squarespace
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Squarespace I
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Squarespace, I've not heard of them. Go ahead. All right. This is a fantastic company. You're gonna love this. You gotta hear this
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Here's the thing Squarespace is an all-in-one
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So you need a website?
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Go to Squarespace.com you sign up and they have an all-in-one platform makes it fast and easy to create a very very
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And it could be any sort of website. They have all sorts of templates for
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Pre-existing ideas like a portfolio site if you're an artist who wants to show off your work
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An online store if you have stuff to sell and they take care of all the really hard stuff of online commerce for you
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All just baked into your account
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It's simple and easy beautiful design drag and drop content to rearrange it just the way you want
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If you want you can drop down and adjust it at the code level if you want to inject your own
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JavaScript or adjust the CSS or something like that
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But if you don't know JavaScript or you don't know CSS
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You can do the whole thing through drag and drop in a very visual intuitive way
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and it all just works now plans start at just eight bucks a month and
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assuming that's Portland, Oregon. Could be Portland, Maine. That's a fine city, but I'm
00:30:07
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going to guess it's...
00:30:08
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Probably want the different time zone though.
00:30:09
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Yeah, probably want the different time zone. Responsive design, everything they do looks
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So here's what you do.
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Go to squarespace.com/gruber and you can use the offer code JG, just my initials, John
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Gruber, JG, and you'll save 10% off your first purchase.
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So sign up for a year, you'll get the free domain name and the 10% will be a big discount.
00:30:52
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And that way they'll know you're coming from the talk show nine squarespace
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What's interesting is actually if you use a offer code PK my initials you get 11% off
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So it's up to you which one you want to use
00:31:02
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Anyway, I think it sounds like a great idea for a service, you know, I'll bet I'll bet whatever from again
00:31:11
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Happy to have him as a sponsor
00:31:14
◼
►
What else we were talking about?
00:31:17
◼
►
Amazon yeah, so there was that last week. They announced the Amazon fire phone, right?
00:31:23
◼
►
Did you see that I didn't see the event I saw I saw one of the summaries of it
00:31:29
◼
►
Either did you actually watch the event?
00:31:32
◼
►
No, I didn't I watched a little bit and it they did seem to do a nice job, but I
00:31:38
◼
►
Forget I was busy at the time and then I've just read all the highlights
00:31:43
◼
►
and it just didn't seem like there was two hours of stuff.
00:31:46
◼
►
- Well, right, 'cause it was just the phone, right?
00:31:48
◼
►
Did they cover anything else?
00:31:50
◼
►
- Pretty much, I think they had some boilerplate up front
00:31:54
◼
►
just talking about how successful Prime is.
00:31:59
◼
►
- Right, and they're graphs with no labeled axes.
00:32:02
◼
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So it's twice as good as it was last year,
00:32:05
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but who knows what it was last year.
00:32:07
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- Right, well, I'm only half joking.
00:32:10
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I took a screenshot of one of the graphs.
00:32:13
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It showed like total number of Prime members over the years.
00:32:16
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And it's a steeply sloping--
00:32:19
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- Upwards chart.
00:32:20
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- But there's no label on the Y axis.
00:32:23
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- Right, no label.
00:32:23
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And I only half joking, I asked if Amazon
00:32:26
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had ever published a graph with a labeled Y axis.
00:32:29
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All they had, the X axis is labeled in years
00:32:32
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and the Y axis is completely unlabeled.
00:32:35
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I don't think that they have.
00:32:37
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And I know that they've never once announced
00:32:40
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sales figures for any hardware device that they make.
00:32:42
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for the Kindles and the tablets and the TV one they've got now. They're all fire something now,
00:32:51
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aren't they? All right. Yeah, I think so. Fire TV. Kindle means reader and fire means
00:33:01
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►
everything else. Like fancier. Except the Kindle Fire is a reader as well. I mean,
00:33:08
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►
the phone? No, no, the Kindle Fire tablet. Like, don't they call it the... Yeah, but it
00:33:14
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►
combines Kindle and Fire. Right. Yeah. It's Kindle Fire. Right. Yeah. I see what you're
00:33:17
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►
saying. I see what you're saying. Right. Right. It's Amazon Kindle Fire is a tablet that's
00:33:22
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►
a reader and a fire. I guess fire means Android. I don't know. Yeah, I think you're right.
00:33:27
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I think that... Fire means they're offshoot of Android. Yeah. It's both an e-reader and
00:33:31
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►
a thing. Then the Fire phone is just their Android offshoot for the phone. And then Fire
00:33:37
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TV is their Android offshoot for watching video and playing games or whatever on your
00:33:43
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TV. I guess I don't know if they have games. I don't think they do.
00:33:46
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No, they do. They do because that was one of the first ones that shipped with its...
00:33:49
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You could buy it with a separate controller. And that was where people said like the Apple
00:33:54
◼
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TV should sell with a... You could buy a $20 controller and then play games on it. And
00:34:00
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►
the Amazon Fire TV had... I think the default model didn't have a controller, but you could
00:34:05
◼
►
buy an additional controller with it. I don't know if that ever took off. It's only been
00:34:09
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►
a few months.
00:34:10
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►
Yeah, I don't never hear anybody write about it.
00:34:11
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So maybe it's not that popular. Maybe it is and they're just not writing about it.
00:34:16
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You know, that's one of those things too that it's, you know, I know people who follow Apple
00:34:20
◼
►
tend to be accused of, I don't know, favoritism or like in the sport, to go back to the sports
00:34:26
◼
►
analogy that we're always complaining about the refs.
00:34:30
◼
►
Right? We always perceive that the refs are out to get us. But I can't help but think
00:34:35
◼
►
that if Apple had announced at the same time an Apple TV update with a game controller
00:34:42
◼
►
and it had taken off to the extent that Amazon's has taken off, which is to say apparently
00:34:47
◼
►
not much at all, that they'd be getting excoriated in the business press.
00:34:50
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There'd be stories about how it had flopped.
00:34:52
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►
And that Tim Cook would need to be fired and etcetera, etcetera, and go forth.
00:34:57
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►
So it's better off not to try anything.
00:34:58
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►
Well, I don't know somehow
00:35:00
◼
►
Apple and Apple alone seems to not be given permission by the business press and some of the tech press to just try things
00:35:09
◼
►
Right and and there's snide remarks about Apple TV as a quote-unquote hobby
00:35:13
◼
►
Whereas it's clearly more, you know, and I think
00:35:17
◼
►
By that it just means it's not as big a deal financially as the other things that Apple does like the phone and well
00:35:23
◼
►
I mean that that originated I think it was Tim Cook who said that wasn't it or was it?
00:35:27
◼
►
Yeah jobs, but yeah, it came from Apple or maybe start. Well, there's one it came while Jobs was still alive
00:35:33
◼
►
Okay, I don't know if it was his words or Tim Cook's words while but Steve was still the scene, right?
00:35:38
◼
►
And and yeah, and they said, you know, this is sort of a hobby for us
00:35:41
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►
And then yeah, then it becomes the the way that the press writes about it, right?
00:35:46
◼
►
I well, I actually remember when they did the first Apple TV the silver and it was the actual hard drive in it
00:35:51
◼
►
yeah, and they even
00:35:53
◼
►
It was sort of semi pre announced because they were gonna call it ITV. It was the same time as the iPhone
00:35:59
◼
►
It was 2007 same same keynote
00:36:01
◼
►
Was it really at the end of the of the the iPhone announcement? Yep. It was the same keynote
00:36:06
◼
►
I'm like 99% certain on that. He was like, I don't even know what we're gonna call it
00:36:11
◼
►
We'll just call it ITV for no no, no, they they know they decided it was the Apple TV
00:36:15
◼
►
But he kept calling it the ITV because he said oh, that's why you shouldn't go with a code name that like
00:36:19
◼
►
I do remember that it was it was that internally they had called it the ITV
00:36:23
◼
►
and then he kept slipping when he was referring to it.
00:36:27
◼
►
Well, and the reason that they... I've heard that the reason they couldn't use that was
00:36:32
◼
►
because there's a big TV network in the UK called ITV. And it just wasn't worth it. Like,
00:36:39
◼
►
I guess they could maybe use that name elsewhere around the world, but that the UK is too big.
00:36:44
◼
►
A big enough market, yeah.
00:36:45
◼
►
Yeah, a big enough market not to do it. But anyway, it was introduced as a hobby. It was
00:36:49
◼
►
So we don't really know what we're doing with this, but we can, it's interesting enough
00:36:53
◼
►
to ship and you can watch movies and TV shows on it and stuff.
00:36:57
◼
►
But I can't help but think that if they had done a game controller already and had games
00:37:01
◼
►
for Apple TV and it was, you know, had gone nowhere yet.
00:37:06
◼
►
Which isn't, you know, right, you'd hear about it.
00:37:08
◼
►
Seems like a different stand.
00:37:11
◼
►
You wanted to talk Tim Cook, right?
00:37:14
◼
►
So let's segue right to these, I guess it was just one piece about Tim Cook and then
00:37:18
◼
►
kind of response piece, right?
00:37:20
◼
►
So, last Sunday, this was, I guess, nine days ago now, but last Sunday, there was on the
00:37:26
◼
►
front page, not the front page of the New York Times, but front page of the Sunday business
00:37:30
◼
►
section of the New York Times, was a profile of Tim Cook.
00:37:34
◼
►
Which interestingly, he did not sit down for.
00:37:39
◼
►
At one point in the profile, they'd spoke to Apple to verify some things, but they said,
00:37:44
◼
►
Tim Cook who declined to be interviewed for this piece.
00:37:49
◼
►
Yeah, but they open it with like an anecdote, a personal anecdote from his childhood, which
00:37:55
◼
►
makes it seem as though he had talked to them for the article, but in fact they took the
00:38:00
◼
►
anecdote from...
00:38:01
◼
►
A speech or something that he gave, right?
00:38:03
◼
►
That he gave at Auburn University within the last few years.
00:38:08
◼
►
But then they just sort of...
00:38:10
◼
►
To me it's a little disingenuous, the way that it's written.
00:38:13
◼
►
Yeah, the way that it opens anyway, it relatively quickly admits, you know, we did not interview
00:38:19
◼
►
him directly for this. So it's not as if...
00:38:22
◼
►
They're certainly not framing the whole thing as if he had spoken to them. But you're right
00:38:26
◼
►
that the intro does make it seem a little bit like he was speaking directly to them.
00:38:30
◼
►
Yeah. The headline is "Tim Cook making Apple his own." I'll be sure to put it... I don't
00:38:35
◼
►
always keep up with the show notes, but I'll make sure I link this in the show notes. It's
00:38:39
◼
►
by Matt Richterl and Brian X. Chen.
00:38:43
◼
►
Brian X. Chen of Japanese hate the iPhone back when he wrote for Wired.
00:38:51
◼
►
But the other thing though that's interesting, so Tim Cook did not speak to them for this
00:38:54
◼
►
profile, but they got a huge interview.
00:38:57
◼
►
They did speak to Johnny Ive.
00:39:01
◼
►
John: Was it in the same profile they had spoken to him?
00:39:06
◼
►
I guess I didn't...
00:39:07
◼
►
didn't see that that was the case. Yeah, so they did get Johnny Ive, which if
00:39:12
◼
►
anything is... It's a bigger get, you think? Well, I think Tim Cook winds up
00:39:17
◼
►
speaking... certainly doesn't speak a lot to the press, but he speaks more often
00:39:21
◼
►
than Johnny Ive does. Well, so it was Johnny Ive speaking almost exclusively
00:39:25
◼
►
about Tim Cook. So it wasn't him talking about his own work or his own, you know,
00:39:32
◼
►
experiences at Apple. It was him sort of buttressing their claims about Tim Cook
00:39:36
◼
►
or responding to some of their claims about Tim Cook.
00:39:42
◼
►
You know, here's a quote from the article.
00:39:44
◼
►
Johnny Ive, the head of design at Apple
00:39:46
◼
►
in a name nearly as adored by its followers as Steve Jobs,
00:39:50
◼
►
says Mr. Cook has not neglected
00:39:52
◼
►
the company's central mission, innovation.
00:39:54
◼
►
Here's the quote.
00:39:55
◼
►
"Honestly, I don't think anything's changed.
00:39:58
◼
►
People felt exactly the same way
00:40:00
◼
►
when we were working on the iPhone.
00:40:02
◼
►
It's hard for all of us to be patient.
00:40:04
◼
►
It was hard for Steve, it is hard for Tim.
00:40:07
◼
►
So I feel that's a pretty strong statement.
00:40:09
◼
►
That's Johnny Ive putting his personal stamp of approval
00:40:15
◼
►
- The Tim Cook era.
00:40:16
◼
►
- Yeah, and saying, honestly,
00:40:18
◼
►
I don't think anything's changed.
00:40:20
◼
►
- At least with regard to Apple and it's,
00:40:22
◼
►
and you know, the I-word innovation.
00:40:26
◼
►
Well, it's interesting that, so yeah, he was,
00:40:28
◼
►
if he was interviewed for part of this,
00:40:30
◼
►
it was really to sort of vouch for Tim Cook.
00:40:33
◼
►
Right, exactly. Which is if presumably put him forward to do that. Yeah, because if anything,
00:40:39
◼
►
there's more credibility there than Tim Cook vouching for himself. Right? Absolutely. Yeah.
00:40:43
◼
►
Right. Take take the sort of and I know it's a loaded word objectivity, but take the objective
00:40:48
◼
►
per stance of, okay, forget whether it's Apple, and Tim Cook in particular, but a company's CEO,
00:40:58
◼
►
and is he it replaces a very successful predecessor who founded the company.
00:41:04
◼
►
The CEO claims that he himself is doing a good job replacing it. It's almost meaningless, right?
00:41:13
◼
►
You know, we laugh, but it's like, well, you know, of course, you're gonna say it.
00:41:18
◼
►
Right. You'd hope.
00:41:18
◼
►
Right. It means a lot more when somebody who has his own...
00:41:22
◼
►
Well, who was there before and who's there now, definitely.
00:41:27
◼
►
Right, and has earned an enormous amount of credibility, and has an enormous amount of credibility to lose, vouches for him.
00:41:38
◼
►
So you could see why Apple PR-wise would strategize such and assuming that everybody went along with it, that they would have Johnny speak instead of Tim.
00:41:49
◼
►
Even instead of both.
00:41:51
◼
►
The thing that I thought was interesting was there was a mention of, so right now there's
00:41:56
◼
►
this idea sort of in the ether that Apple hasn't had any innovative product since Steve
00:42:02
◼
►
Jobs died, right?
00:42:03
◼
►
And the last one was the iPad, which was 2010.
00:42:06
◼
►
He died in 2011, is that right?
00:42:09
◼
►
2011, I think.
00:42:11
◼
►
And they've been sitting on their hands since then.
00:42:15
◼
►
And the fairly obvious response is that innovative products don't come every six months or every
00:42:21
◼
►
It's, you know, the Mac, the iPod in 2001, the iPhone in 2007, and then the iPad in 2010.
00:42:29
◼
►
So even if you think it accelerated, I think that's fairly coincidental, and really we're
00:42:32
◼
►
talking about a handful of truly game-changing products that you should expect there to be
00:42:38
◼
►
multiple years, maybe even, you know, decades between them.
00:42:43
◼
►
But the iPad mini is sort of the counter to that, that maybe that's one where it's at
00:42:48
◼
►
least semi-innovative in terms of ramping up sales at least.
00:42:53
◼
►
And what was interesting in that piece was that it said that this was a product that
00:42:57
◼
►
Steve Jobs didn't think would find a market, and since then it outsells the full-size iPad.
00:43:04
◼
►
I don't think it gave a number, but it vastly outsells it, right?
00:43:08
◼
►
I don't know about vastly, but it did say that it outsold it.
00:43:11
◼
►
And I thought that was interesting because it wasn't—Apple doesn't break that down,
00:43:16
◼
►
Although you can kind of extrapolate some of it from average, they do say how many total
00:43:21
◼
►
iPads they sell per quarter, and they do give an average selling price.
00:43:24
◼
►
And given that the iPad Mini has always been significantly lower priced, that you could
00:43:29
◼
►
see from the downward shift in average selling price that it's clearly been a successful
00:43:36
◼
►
But it was, you're right though, that they do give Tim Cook credit.
00:43:39
◼
►
Not just credit, but credit as far as Steve Jobs didn't want to make this product, and
00:43:44
◼
►
Therefore, they didn't under him.
00:43:47
◼
►
And Tim Cook took over and then he said, "You know what?
00:43:49
◼
►
We are going to make this."
00:43:53
◼
►
It's never been promoted that way, but that's, to me, almost really the first major Tim Cook
00:43:59
◼
►
product that apparently really just literally would not have happened under Steve Jobs.
00:44:06
◼
►
And it's also a very interesting product to me operations wise because I still think it's
00:44:14
◼
►
an enormous success.
00:44:16
◼
►
Apple is a company of patterns and you can kind of pick up on the annual patterns of
00:44:21
◼
►
their development and make, you know, without any kind of sources at all at Apple, it's
00:44:27
◼
►
a pretty good guess that there's going to be at least one new iPhone later this year
00:44:31
◼
►
and it's going to have a new system on a chip called the A8.
00:44:37
◼
►
Well, at the very least, there's going to be a new iPhone.
00:44:38
◼
►
As far as the chip, what do you think?
00:44:40
◼
►
Like 90% chance on that?
00:44:42
◼
►
I would say at least 90% chance that there's going to be an A8 because there's been an
00:44:48
◼
►
A4, A5, A6, A7 for the last four years.
00:44:51
◼
►
Has it been every single year that they've had a new one?
00:44:54
◼
►
Ever since they introduced the one with the A4.
00:44:58
◼
►
Well, I'd say 99.99 that there's going to be a new iPhone and then maybe just slightly
00:45:02
◼
►
less that it's going to have a new chip.
00:45:04
◼
►
matter. But yeah, as you're saying patterns that they've followed for years at this point.
00:45:08
◼
►
Right. And so to me, the thing that's most interesting about the iPad mini is the first
00:45:13
◼
►
one that was introduced in 2012 was like a year behind the big iPad. It was a year behind,
00:45:21
◼
►
it was still on the A5 when the big iPad had gone to the A6. It was not...
00:45:27
◼
►
Right. It didn't have the retina display.
00:45:28
◼
►
Right. And so I expected that in 2013 that it would still be one year behind
00:45:36
◼
►
and it might go retina because the iPad had gone retina the year before but that
00:45:40
◼
►
it would have the A6. Right. Which is how they you know how they could
00:45:45
◼
►
in other ways you know how they kept the prices so much lower than the full-size
00:45:49
◼
►
but it like skipped a year. It to me engineering wise it went all the way
00:45:53
◼
►
from an A5 non-retina device to top-of-the-line A7 retina and not
00:46:00
◼
►
thicker like the original retina iPads were. Right. Kept the felt thinness, the
00:46:07
◼
►
long battery life and retina and went to the A7. I mean it's like there's like a
00:46:12
◼
►
tiny little asterisk you have to insert there because it's like the clock speed
00:46:16
◼
►
is like 5% slower than the iPad. Oh is it? I don't even think I was aware of that so.
00:46:21
◼
►
Yeah, but it's it's really really like it's not even just an asterisk. It's like a tiny it's effectively
00:46:26
◼
►
They effectively brought it up to the same level as the as the full-size iPad instead of keeping right
00:46:31
◼
►
In a year when the full-size iPad had a tremendous year
00:46:35
◼
►
Big jump in terms of the thickness and the width and you know battery life and stuff like right, which is amazing
00:46:41
◼
►
And to me that's just all Tim Cook and then to hear that this you know that he you know
00:46:46
◼
►
He'd been a proponent of the mini size all along. I
00:46:49
◼
►
I mean, you know, it seems like the guy gets credit both for the operations and for the
00:46:56
◼
►
for actual anticipating the market demand.
00:46:59
◼
►
Well, the thing that I think before I say this, I need to stipulate that I do own some
00:47:03
◼
►
Apple stock.
00:47:04
◼
►
But the thing that I can't ever really get behind in these articles is talking about
00:47:11
◼
►
And I'm not like, I'm not some sage investor, I don't really know what I'm doing.
00:47:16
◼
►
But everything talks about how Apple's growth has slowed, and that's percentage growth,
00:47:24
◼
►
But why is that the metric?
00:47:27
◼
►
Can someone explain to me why, you know, if you go from being, I don't know how big they
00:47:32
◼
►
were 10 years ago, but they weren't that big, to either the biggest or second biggest or,
00:47:38
◼
►
you know, top five biggest companies in the world, why is that not enough?
00:47:45
◼
►
And why do you need to continue growing beyond that point?
00:47:49
◼
►
Well, and I would even say the flip side that where they did have in the crazy go-go early
00:47:57
◼
►
years 2008, 2009, 2010 of the iPhone, where they did have crazy like 40%, 30% year over
00:48:04
◼
►
year growth.
00:48:05
◼
►
Who thinks though that once you are the biggest company in the world that you can possibly
00:48:09
◼
►
or 40% growth is feasible.
00:48:12
◼
►
It's it almost is impossible and I know this is not really the law of big numbers
00:48:18
◼
►
But it's what some people refer to you know use that phrase which it simply means once you're that big you can't
00:48:25
◼
►
Grow at 30 or 40 percent. Yeah, you're right
00:48:28
◼
►
That's the thing is that if you go from 1 billion in sales to 2 billion, it's a hundred percent growth
00:48:33
◼
►
But to do 2 to 4 billion is obviously not as easy as 1 to 2
00:48:38
◼
►
And as the numbers get bigger and bigger that becomes more difficult
00:48:41
◼
►
And when you're literally the most profitable company in the world not just profitable tech company
00:48:46
◼
►
But most profitable company seven or eight percent growth year-over-year in profits is huge
00:48:51
◼
►
And and it's huge numbers of billions of dollars
00:48:56
◼
►
Everyone's I shouldn't say everyone but Wall Street or investors or you know
00:49:00
◼
►
Whoever it is seem so focused on the percentage growth and I just look at these numbers and I think like okay
00:49:07
◼
►
they made $20 billion last quarter, that seems pretty good to me.
00:49:16
◼
►
The iPhone in particular, which is the biggest and most profitable by revenue and profit
00:49:20
◼
►
line that Apple has, is in a fascinating market, which is phones, because for the most part,
00:49:27
◼
►
there's an upper cap on how many phones are going to be in the world, which is one phone
00:49:31
◼
►
for every adult or even close to adult-aged person.
00:49:35
◼
►
I mean unless you've got your day phone and your night phone
00:49:37
◼
►
Right, which is an exception and you know, there's obviously a lot of very elderly people who are not gonna buy it
00:49:45
◼
►
No, I'm just kidding cell phone and they're dying off and there's you know children
00:49:49
◼
►
I guess, you know really young children are typically not gonna get an iPhone, right?
00:49:53
◼
►
Well, and it's not a it's not a good that people trade them in or upgrade but it's not a good that
00:49:59
◼
►
Expires in any way at least not in terms of months. It's years
00:50:04
◼
►
I don't know, what's the world population?
00:50:05
◼
►
Seven billion people.
00:50:07
◼
►
So let's say there's truly a hard cap
00:50:09
◼
►
at around three billion phones in the world,
00:50:12
◼
►
let's say three or four.
00:50:13
◼
►
- Sure, why not?
00:50:14
◼
►
- You know, and you could cut off large swaths
00:50:17
◼
►
of those people for not having the financial,
00:50:21
◼
►
they don't have enough money to buy an iPhone.
00:50:24
◼
►
- Right, it's just not gonna happen.
00:50:25
◼
►
Or they live in a place where there still isn't
00:50:27
◼
►
cell service, right?
00:50:29
◼
►
Not that the iPhone has already peaked
00:50:33
◼
►
and that it can't sell more.
00:50:34
◼
►
But it's actually, if you look at the numbers
00:50:36
◼
►
that have actually sold, it's remarkably close to,
00:50:39
◼
►
they've sold about as many as they could have hoped to
00:50:41
◼
►
at this point, and they've got to expand
00:50:43
◼
►
and interesting in new ways and wait for the world
00:50:45
◼
►
to catch up, you know.
00:50:46
◼
►
It's truly, they've done almost as well with the iPhone
00:50:51
◼
►
- As you possibly could.
00:50:53
◼
►
- Right, like if you said in 2007,
00:50:55
◼
►
when they came out with it, what's the best case scenario
00:50:59
◼
►
for the next seven years?
00:51:01
◼
►
almost it's almost as though that they've they've hit that that they've
00:51:04
◼
►
they've you know they've done as well with it as they possibly could have
00:51:08
◼
►
expected to do and that years where they were having 30 or 40 percent growth that
00:51:15
◼
►
was those were the years where they were expanding to new carriers around the
00:51:19
◼
►
world I mean it's this is a thing that debuted on one carrier in one country in
00:51:24
◼
►
2007 and because of the nature of the way that they control the customer
00:51:29
◼
►
Experience and that you know, it's so different than than what the carriers expect or want
00:51:34
◼
►
You know, it was a relatively slow roll out around the world
00:51:39
◼
►
And that's what made the growth possible is that there are these countries where it hadn't been sold
00:51:44
◼
►
except like on the gray market
00:51:47
◼
►
And then they debut and they could you know, it would allow for this tremendous growth. Whereas that type of growth
00:51:54
◼
►
It's just not feasible to expect that right, right
00:51:57
◼
►
Well, and and then in that same piece there was a quote from I forget who it was
00:52:01
◼
►
It doesn't really matter some either investor or some analyst and I wrote this down because he said he thought Apple
00:52:07
◼
►
No longer had the juice to create the world beating product it needs
00:52:11
◼
►
And so let's let's I can even I can even say, you know, maybe he's right. Maybe they cannot create another iPhone
00:52:18
◼
►
Maybe there's no market that exists or maybe they don't have the ability to create a market
00:52:23
◼
►
But the word needs in that sentence is really what sort of sticks
00:52:27
◼
►
Because this is again
00:52:29
◼
►
I don't know what it is right now today
00:52:30
◼
►
But it's one of the biggest companies in the world one of the most profitable companies in the world
00:52:34
◼
►
And they've got how much money in the bank
00:52:36
◼
►
What does needs mean in that sense?
00:52:40
◼
►
Right it's not what Apple needs. It's what these investors who seek huge returns on this stock, right?
00:52:46
◼
►
Right what they need right to justify continuing to support Apple
00:52:52
◼
►
Here's a quote that they have in this time story from you know, this is the balance that was added to the story
00:52:57
◼
►
This is from Lawrence I balter chief market strategist at Oracle Investment Research
00:53:03
◼
►
Well the article this is this is the the the Times author's words
00:53:09
◼
►
Investors have clamored for Apple wizardry a much-anticipated. I watch or ITV perhaps to these critics. Mr
00:53:17
◼
►
Cook is uninspiring his social views window dressing when what they want is magic
00:53:22
◼
►
magic, which is a little more telling than they could think, I think, because I think
00:53:27
◼
►
that saying that they want magic, like they're presenting these guys as reasonable critics,
00:53:31
◼
►
whereas I'd say using the word magic is a little bit, it's actually spot on, like what
00:53:39
◼
►
It's not possible.
00:53:42
◼
►
Here's the quote from this guy, Balter.
00:53:43
◼
►
"Where is the grand design?
00:53:46
◼
►
we hear from Cook is that there are some great products coming down the pike. Mr.
00:53:52
◼
►
balter calls Apple a financial rock of Gibraltar. It is sitting on about 150
00:53:57
◼
►
billion in cash, but he says he has serious questions about whether it
00:54:01
◼
►
continued to be a hyper growth company. Is it a stock for growth investors he
00:54:07
◼
►
asks or quote, widows, which and now to me, it's actually a little insulting,
00:54:14
◼
►
Like, now it's like the alpha male investor on Wall Street who's, you know, like, what
00:54:24
◼
►
exactly is wrong with widows?
00:54:27
◼
►
And with a blue chip stock.
00:54:30
◼
►
Which churns out earnings every year and pays a dividend and, you know, is a viable thing
00:54:37
◼
►
to hold onto and earn you some money.
00:54:40
◼
►
whose husbands have died are looking for stability, I guess.
00:54:44
◼
►
Yeah, I guess.
00:54:47
◼
►
And exactly, like you said, what's wrong with that either?
00:54:50
◼
►
I mean, and you're right.
00:54:52
◼
►
It presents it as a-- it should be this hypergrowth stock,
00:54:56
◼
►
and instead it's this boring, you'll
00:54:58
◼
►
just make a little bit of money off it every year stock.
00:55:02
◼
►
Yeah, like I said, I can't read too much
00:55:06
◼
►
of the stock analysis of Apple just
00:55:09
◼
►
because it's just so insane.
00:55:12
◼
►
- Right, and it's never been a fair way
00:55:17
◼
►
to necessarily measure the CEO
00:55:19
◼
►
because the stock is in some ways outside the CEO,
00:55:23
◼
►
well, in large ways outside the CEO's control.
00:55:27
◼
►
You know, judge them by their revenue
00:55:29
◼
►
and their profit and their product lines,
00:55:31
◼
►
but what happens to the stock price is often irrational,
00:55:34
◼
►
and in Apple's case, usually irrational.
00:55:37
◼
►
- Even if you do think the CEO
00:55:38
◼
►
should be judged based on the stock. If you look at the numbers, it's way up since he
00:55:43
◼
►
Right, way up. And in fact, that's the point I'm getting at, is that it's actually getting
00:55:49
◼
►
to me this Times article. If you really read between the lines and look at it, the stuff
00:55:55
◼
►
in Tim Cook's favor is, a lot of it is concrete, things like the iPad Mini being a hit. Largely
00:56:03
◼
►
brushed over in this article, but the stuff at WWDC, where you see Apple as an organization
00:56:08
◼
►
really working to pulling together in a cohesive way, across the whole company.
00:56:16
◼
►
Right. And in a way that shows that these products they've already got, the iPhone and
00:56:21
◼
►
the iPad, and even the Mac, which is, you know, the longest standing, still have deep
00:56:26
◼
►
areas to be improved. That they're nowhere close to being finished, you know, and that
00:56:32
◼
►
a shallowness to say, give me something new, give me a watch or a TV, that the iPhone and iPad are
00:56:38
◼
►
old news. Whereas there's still so, so much to do to improve those products, even in the short term,
00:56:46
◼
►
even just this year and next year, let alone for the next decade, right. And it's such a shallow
00:56:51
◼
►
way to look at them as to say that, that they need, you know, like you emphasize the word need
00:56:57
◼
►
that they need something new when there's so much work that can be done and improvements that can be
00:57:03
◼
►
made to these existing products. But then conversely, the negative stuff, the balance,
00:57:10
◼
►
well, I don't know, maybe the guy is an empty shirt, is getting so much, the sauce is so much
00:57:15
◼
►
weaker. They're still, in this article, using the stock dive in 2013 against Cook that investors
00:57:24
◼
►
doubted the guy and the stock went from over 700 down under 500 and this is the
00:57:33
◼
►
old pre split numbers but it's they're still using that like hey there's proof
00:57:38
◼
►
that the guy you know is maybe on shaky ground whereas really what that stock dip
00:57:44
◼
►
proved was that a lot of investors believed not that Tim Cook was an empty
00:57:48
◼
►
shirt but that a lot of it investors thought he was an empty shirt right it's
00:57:51
◼
►
It's not proof that he was, it's proof that somebody believed he was.
00:57:55
◼
►
But the article came out in June of 2014 when the stock is back up at near historic peaks
00:58:04
◼
►
and way higher.
00:58:05
◼
►
I mean, it might even be--
00:58:07
◼
►
I think it was around 350 when he took over.
00:58:09
◼
►
I'm pulling that number out of the air, but I'm pretty sure that's right.
00:58:12
◼
►
If it's not double, it is very close to double the peak of where it was when Steve Jobs,
00:58:20
◼
►
you know, resigned.
00:58:21
◼
►
So yeah, it went up and then it went down a little bit
00:58:23
◼
►
from there, but was still way over where it had been.
00:58:25
◼
►
And now it's back up.
00:58:27
◼
►
- Right, so that the only way you can use it
00:58:29
◼
►
as a cudgel against him is to ignore what's happened
00:58:32
◼
►
after, you know, you've got to still be stuck
00:58:36
◼
►
at like late 2013 when it was depressed.
00:58:40
◼
►
It's actually the stock now is not a good example
00:58:44
◼
►
of problems with Tim Cook.
00:58:46
◼
►
And then the last, well, there's two things I wanted
00:58:50
◼
►
talk about in the article. But the last thing in the article I thought was weird too.
00:58:56
◼
►
Where they--
00:58:57
◼
►
John: Is it the Beatles comparison?
00:58:58
◼
►
Okay, go ahead. Sorry.
00:58:59
◼
►
Steve: No. Oh, yeah, maybe. Yeah. Was it? Is that who gave it? It's like they found
00:59:03
◼
►
some guys at WWDC who claim to be iPhone developers.
00:59:07
◼
►
John; Right.
00:59:08
◼
►
Steve; And one of them--
00:59:11
◼
►
John; The quote that I have is that--and I wrote this down too--is that, "Jobs is to
00:59:14
◼
►
John Lennon what Tim Cook is to Ringo."
00:59:17
◼
►
Steve; Yeah.
00:59:20
◼
►
- I mean, nothing against Ringo, but I mean, that's,
00:59:25
◼
►
I don't know, I couldn't cotton on to the idea
00:59:28
◼
►
that Jobs is Lennon and Tim Cook is not Paul McCartney,
00:59:33
◼
►
he's frickin' Ringo.
00:59:36
◼
►
I think comparisons to the Beatles, in this case,
00:59:39
◼
►
are pretty-- - It doesn't work.
00:59:40
◼
►
- It doesn't work. - Right.
00:59:41
◼
►
- But it's, yeah, they let that, you know,
00:59:43
◼
►
but they found somebody who obviously
00:59:45
◼
►
doesn't think much of Tim Cook,
00:59:46
◼
►
And then at the very end of the article,
00:59:50
◼
►
they found one thing particularly jarring in the keynote.
00:59:53
◼
►
Apple did not hew to its tradition of pairing hardware and software.
00:59:57
◼
►
Specifically, Apple introduced a program called Health,
00:59:59
◼
►
which helps consumers and doctors monitor health status,
01:00:02
◼
►
like heart rate or glucose levels,
01:00:04
◼
►
but did not also introduce a piece of hardware to measure those results.
01:00:07
◼
►
That is something the new smartwatch is rumored to do.
01:00:11
◼
►
Quote from this guy, Mr. Ziluf.
01:00:14
◼
►
"They just released software," said Mr. Ziloff, sounding surprised.
01:00:18
◼
►
It's something Steve wouldn't have done.
01:00:21
◼
►
It's an impossible comparison, but it's one that Mr. Cook is being held to, at least until
01:00:25
◼
►
he makes enough magic of his own.
01:00:27
◼
►
And then the article ends.
01:00:29
◼
►
So they just let this guy say this.
01:00:31
◼
►
They quote this guy who was at WWDC saying, in the last paragraph, "It's something Steve
01:00:36
◼
►
wouldn't have done."
01:00:37
◼
►
Whereas you can list...you probably ran out of fingers listing WWDCs where they didn't
01:00:42
◼
►
introduce new hardware.
01:00:43
◼
►
Right, right. Well, and and recently, it's all been new iOS stuff that then in the fall,
01:00:49
◼
►
you realize, oh, right, the phone does have, you know, two cameras or a GPS, or I'm trying
01:00:55
◼
►
to think of a more recent example. But, you know, iPhone does have things that go with
01:00:59
◼
►
this software,
01:01:00
◼
►
right, including 2011. Steve Jobs last WWDC was no hardware, right? It was actually the
01:01:07
◼
►
WWDC where they moved the iPhones from right to the fall and there was no
01:01:15
◼
►
hardware it was the I you know it was like the introduction of iCloud as a
01:01:18
◼
►
strategy which was software and so they don't they just let the quote stand like
01:01:23
◼
►
that to me and that's how the article ends they say that something Steve
01:01:26
◼
►
wouldn't have done whereas the Times could have easily fact-checked right and
01:01:29
◼
►
said actually it is something that not only would he have done he did do and
01:01:35
◼
►
That, to me, is maddening, and to me is the sort of thing you would think you would expect
01:01:40
◼
►
better from the New York Times.
01:01:42
◼
►
But it's because I feel like it didn't even occur to them because their perspective is
01:01:47
◼
►
they want this false balance where you've got to have somebody saying something like
01:01:56
◼
►
Otherwise, it seems like Tim Cook is too balanced and too skewed in favor of saying Tim Cook
01:02:03
◼
►
He's actually doing a good job.
01:02:04
◼
►
actual facts say. And it's just maddening to me that that's who they speak to from WWDC,
01:02:10
◼
►
whereas I thought it was, I know you missed it this year, you weren't out there, but it
01:02:14
◼
►
was a crazily popular WWDC from developers' perspective.
01:02:18
◼
►
Right, right. Yeah, and you could see that after the fact in terms of developer response.
01:02:23
◼
►
And you didn't even have to be there for that. You know the announcements, you know, that
01:02:25
◼
►
it's a lot of stuff that developers have been asking for.
01:02:29
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►
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01:04:25
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I thought there was one more thing in this time story that got under my skin, which was
01:04:30
◼
►
when they were talking about Tim Cook and Apple's charitable giving and the whole thing
01:04:37
◼
►
with telling the investors at the annual meeting that if they want, you know, with regard to
01:04:42
◼
►
their environmental stance.
01:04:43
◼
►
If all you care about is the return on investment, then get out of the stock, right?
01:04:47
◼
►
and that they're gonna do the right thing. and this was from some investors
01:04:53
◼
►
with admittedly right-wing views on climate change and and similar you know
01:05:02
◼
►
that sort of environmental type things. and I thought that the article sort of
01:05:09
◼
►
painted Tim Cook tried to paint him a little bit as sort of a wuss you know
01:05:16
◼
►
Like, he's sort of a namzy-pamzy, wasting money on things that a CEO...
01:05:23
◼
►
I thought that they presented that side of the argument a lot more than the flip side,
01:05:29
◼
►
that they didn't really seem to have any quotes from anybody who backs his leadership on those
01:05:36
◼
►
They had quotes from the people who were against it and nothing from the people for it.
01:05:41
◼
►
And I thought that was a little...
01:05:42
◼
►
Well, I mean, Tim Cook declined to be interviewed, so that's...
01:05:46
◼
►
Yeah, I guess. But I thought that was a little weird. And then there was this weird thing
01:05:50
◼
►
where they were comparing Apple's charitable giving to Microsoft.
01:05:53
◼
►
Yeah, did you work out the math on that? Because...
01:05:56
◼
►
Well, I'd leave that to you. You're...
01:05:59
◼
►
Well, I just...
01:06:00
◼
►
You're the guy.
01:06:01
◼
►
You know, I did a mental calculation on it, and it was something like, you know, under
01:06:05
◼
►
Cook, Apple has increased their charitable giving and their matching of employees' charitable
01:06:09
◼
►
giving and I don't remember the numbers it doesn't really matter you can look it
01:06:13
◼
►
up in the article but basically it said something like in the past two years 50
01:06:17
◼
►
million has been donated but in the past two decades Microsoft has donated like
01:06:22
◼
►
over a billion yeah that's exactly it that it's over two decades Microsoft is
01:06:28
◼
►
employees donations inclusive of the corporate match have donated a billion
01:06:34
◼
►
dollars since 1983 so two decades right and so if you if you do that or three
01:06:39
◼
►
decades right 93 to the yeah that's three deck if you do the math like it
01:06:44
◼
►
worked out that yeah Apple might not have you know might not be doing quite
01:06:49
◼
►
as much on average as Microsoft did over 20 years but in the past two years the
01:06:53
◼
►
numbers are way up and it doesn't really make sense to compare 20 years worth of
01:06:59
◼
►
donations to two years when they've just started this program out. So the whole
01:07:06
◼
►
thing, the math on it seemed, it was just, it was, it was an apples and oranges
01:07:10
◼
►
comparison, to use a phrase that doesn't work that well for Apple, but it didn't
01:07:15
◼
►
really make sense to me as I was reading it. Well, if you divide a billion over 30
01:07:20
◼
►
years from Microsoft is 33 billion, or a million a year, or 33 million a year, and
01:07:26
◼
►
and they're saying Apple has donated 50 million in two years. Well, so it's in the ballpark.
01:07:33
◼
►
Now, there's inflation adjustment, et cetera, where $1983 are worth less. So maybe Microsoft
01:07:38
◼
►
has been giving more. But still, they're in the ballpark when you look at it that way.
01:07:42
◼
►
And it's new. They've recently gotten into the ballpark, so it doesn't seem to make sense
01:07:47
◼
►
to me to compare it over the past 20 or 30 years.
01:07:50
◼
►
Right. And the other thing, too, that they just toss out there as though it's equivalent
01:07:54
◼
►
is that Microsoft says that on average it donates two million dollars a day in
01:07:59
◼
►
software to nonprofits which is great it's better than not doing better than
01:08:05
◼
►
not doing it but let's face it you know that's that's that's valuing office at
01:08:09
◼
►
like $900 or something which nobody writes right it would be great if rogue
01:08:15
◼
►
amoeba donated software to nonprofits but it's not the same thing as rogue amoeba
01:08:20
◼
►
but donating money to nonprofits. And 2 million sounds like a lot. It would be a lot for
01:08:27
◼
►
Rogamib or Qbrands to donate $2 million in software. Yeah, 2 million a day. That'd be a
01:08:35
◼
►
lot of copies of Esper. But for Microsoft, it's not, especially given the fact that the prices
01:08:44
◼
►
they charge for their software are just arbitrary. It's not real good. It's not the same thing as,
01:08:48
◼
►
for example donating two million dollars a day in hardware to non-profits which has a fixed cost.
01:08:54
◼
►
So it's a weird, I thought it was a weird and slanted comparison.
01:08:57
◼
►
Yeah, all right what else you got? Well we were talking growth, I think you wanted to touch on the
01:09:04
◼
►
physical growth of the iPhone. Oh there you go, Mr. Segway, that's why. Yeah.
01:09:10
◼
►
So we've got, that's the other big story that came out this week and this is nothing new.
01:09:15
◼
►
This is, you know, it's just verifying months-long rumors, but that Bloomberg yesterday, this
01:09:21
◼
►
was Peter Burrows.
01:09:22
◼
►
Well, hold on.
01:09:23
◼
►
Don't use the word verifying because...
01:09:24
◼
►
Oh, not verifying.
01:09:25
◼
►
That's a wrong word.
01:09:26
◼
►
Well, no, I don't mean to criticize you.
01:09:28
◼
►
I'm talking more about all the sites that publish this stuff all the time.
01:09:32
◼
►
Now we've got a slightly more reputable site with maybe better sourcing, right?
01:09:37
◼
►
Echoing the rumors.
01:09:38
◼
►
There you go.
01:09:39
◼
►
This is Tim Kolpin and Peter Burrows reporting for Bloomberg.
01:09:44
◼
►
Apple's big iPhones, plural, said to start production next month.
01:09:51
◼
►
Apple suppliers in China will begin mass production of its largest iPhones ever next month, according
01:09:55
◼
►
to people familiar with the plans as the smartphone maker faces increased competition.
01:10:02
◼
►
Blah blah blah, asked not to be identified because the plans are private.
01:10:06
◼
►
One model will have a 4.7 inch display compared to the 4 inch screen of the current 5S that
01:10:12
◼
►
be available to ship to retailers around September," said two of the people. "A 5.5-inch version
01:10:19
◼
►
is also being prepared for manufacturing and may be available at the same time," the people
01:10:23
◼
►
said. So they're saying, and this has been rumored by various people for a while, that
01:10:29
◼
►
there's two new bigger iPhones this year, a 4.7-inch diagonal display and a 5.5-inch.
01:10:38
◼
►
is a lot of... I feel like we could easily fill the rest of the show just talking about
01:10:42
◼
►
this. I don't even understand the aspect that this 5.5 inch version may be available at
01:10:49
◼
►
the same time.
01:10:50
◼
►
As if they might release this in like January or something.
01:10:53
◼
►
Right. I don't get it.
01:10:54
◼
►
I mean, as we just talked about 10 minutes ago about the patterns that Apple follows,
01:10:58
◼
►
they don't release a new iPhone in the middle of the year with a different size.
01:11:03
◼
►
Right. I don't get it. I've never been less...
01:11:07
◼
►
excited not excited well I'm not exactly because I'm I'm personally a little yeah
01:11:17
◼
►
I don't want to be like I mean I'll just I don't know right out there I'm holding
01:11:20
◼
►
my iPhone right now it's it's a four inch screen and it's almost too big to
01:11:26
◼
►
me I could see how maybe I could I could get used to a 4.7 I've seen 4.7 devices
01:11:34
◼
►
But that to me seems just the width seems to me annoying 5.5. I've seen those phones. I know that I don't want one
01:11:40
◼
►
I know that I don't
01:11:42
◼
►
It just seems weird to me
01:11:44
◼
►
No, I've never even my personal tastes aside even let's say I really want even if I wanted a huge iPhone
01:11:50
◼
►
I just don't understand how Apple's going to
01:11:53
◼
►
Present it in a keynote
01:11:57
◼
►
Where they said, you know, I could see how they would say look everybody wants a big phone. Here's a bigger. Okay
01:12:03
◼
►
I don't understand how they say here's two bigger iPhones
01:12:07
◼
►
bigger and even more humongous and the size that you've grown used to
01:12:13
◼
►
Over the last seven years and that has made the iPhone that by far, you know
01:12:18
◼
►
70% of all the profits in the entire handset industry is now right that was it
01:12:22
◼
►
Yeah, that was your big thing is that you're reading this as them saying there will be a 4.7 and a 5.5 and that's it
01:12:29
◼
►
And that's all I've ever seen rumored. I've never seen from any of these other rumors rumors of a new four inch normal
01:12:37
◼
►
current size iPhone
01:12:39
◼
►
Right. Well, but I I guess the question is how would that how would that leak?
01:12:43
◼
►
Versus if the size changes it's much more obvious, right?
01:12:51
◼
►
Part of it too and and over the last few years the track records been pretty good on the component leaks out of Asia
01:12:59
◼
►
And what they're showing this year is something that's more along the lines of the iPads with rounded sides
01:13:06
◼
►
Okay, have you seen any I haven't I I really don't look at this stuff
01:13:10
◼
►
Just because I wait till it comes out
01:13:11
◼
►
But I understand what you're saying a lot of what's come out and and from sources that have been pretty accurate in years past
01:13:17
◼
►
You know and that got the new
01:13:19
◼
►
iPhone 5 shape and and same same type of people who stood, you know had like leaks of the gold iPhone
01:13:27
◼
►
last year are showing I
01:13:30
◼
►
4.7 inch and 5.5 inch phones with more or less just think of a smaller iPad or iPad mini with the rounder
01:13:39
◼
►
sides and those style brands
01:13:41
◼
►
And nothing like that has leaked with a 4 inch
01:13:45
◼
►
So let's see if you presume now obviously this is an enormous if this is the biggest if I could make on the show if
01:13:53
◼
►
We take it for granted that
01:13:57
◼
►
all new iPhone hardware will inevitably leak from the agent's supply chain.
01:14:03
◼
►
Again, that is an enormous if, but if we take that as an assumption, then the only way that
01:14:09
◼
►
the 4-inch screen stays at the top of the, you know, gets the A8 and new camera and,
01:14:16
◼
►
you know, stays at the top of the heap technology-wise, spec-wise, is if it's going to still be in
01:14:21
◼
►
the 5S form factor.
01:14:25
◼
►
Which seems different if there's two new models that have a new iPad style look.
01:14:31
◼
►
Like it's possible, I guess, but it just seems weird.
01:14:35
◼
►
Like to me, for example, the way that I just mentioned before that in 2013, last fall,
01:14:42
◼
►
Apple introduced two new iPads, the new mini with retina and the new iPad Air, and they
01:14:48
◼
►
had the same spec, same camera, same A7 system on a chip, roughly that it's just, hey, which
01:14:55
◼
►
size do you want right and they also looked like siblings right they look
01:15:00
◼
►
like the same device shrunk up and down well but if you even right so I mean the
01:15:05
◼
►
the question is are they gonna keep a four-inch screen as a sibling a brother
01:15:11
◼
►
to the exist or the the new sizes but if you were gonna do that if you're gonna
01:15:17
◼
►
change the case that's gonna present all sorts of manufacturing challenges right
01:15:20
◼
►
I would guess. I mean it might make sense to put the new hardware in there, you know, whatever the
01:15:28
◼
►
new chip is, new camera, whatever, but keep the current case because you've already tooled up all
01:15:34
◼
►
your factories for that current four inch sized case. Yeah, but they've never kept the same four
01:15:39
◼
►
factor form factor for more than two years. The 3G, 3GS was two years, the 4, 4S was two years,
01:15:45
◼
►
and that's true five five s now does you know again the fact that that's the
01:15:50
◼
►
pattern that they've had ever since the you know 3G you know in the original
01:15:56
◼
►
2007 iPhone was the only one that only lasted a year does that mean that it
01:16:02
◼
►
always be so maybe not you know maybe this form factor the five five s form
01:16:07
◼
►
factor is like their Porsche 911 you know we don't need to change it you know
01:16:12
◼
►
This is this is the way the four-inch iPhone looks all the time. Yeah, and there's and it doesn't look dated
01:16:18
◼
►
It looks still looks great. I mean ultimately what we'll see in
01:16:22
◼
►
What three months I?
01:16:25
◼
►
would guess September because that's it's been September for
01:16:28
◼
►
ever since they moved it to the fall right and then October is for iPads and
01:16:33
◼
►
Perhaps the watch or whatever else they're gonna do, but I would guess the phone gets its own event in September, right?
01:16:40
◼
►
Well, I said to you I said the interesting thing to me was not the physical size growing because I'm as I said
01:16:46
◼
►
I'm pretty happy with the current physical size. I'm
01:16:48
◼
►
interested to see a
01:16:50
◼
►
storage space increase
01:16:52
◼
►
in the device
01:16:54
◼
►
Yeah, absolutely. And nobody has any kind of rumors about that
01:16:58
◼
►
Well again, I guess is that something that would even leak because you know, they already make 128 gig iPad
01:17:03
◼
►
So the the storage already exists in that size
01:17:07
◼
►
How different would be with the physical, you know, the case wouldn't need to be any different just to put a little more
01:17:11
◼
►
storage space in there probably
01:17:14
◼
►
Yeah, I don't think so. I don't think the hundred and twenty eight gigabyte chips would be bigger
01:17:18
◼
►
I and and along the same lines, I would really really I think it's almost overdue at this point like to see more RAM
01:17:25
◼
►
Okay, because they've they've been all at the iPhones been at one gigabyte of RAM sense for a while now
01:17:31
◼
►
I forget which was it maybe die from five. I think the five
01:17:36
◼
►
You know and in that tick-tock strategy of every two years, they take bigger leaps forward
01:17:42
◼
►
I would really like to see them go to two gigabytes. Well now do you do you think you notice a
01:17:51
◼
►
Less so than used to but I still get those, you know, it's it's most noticeable in Safari
01:17:57
◼
►
Okay, when tabs that I know I have open end up having a load
01:18:02
◼
►
Yeah, and you know, it's just the nature of the phone where I use it on cellular more than any other device
01:18:09
◼
►
And therefore if I'm out on cellular sometimes, you know, it's the most inconsistent networking wise and reloading a tie
01:18:15
◼
►
Often takes you know longer than then you'd like right? Well because I mean with storage space
01:18:21
◼
►
It's very obvious if I want to put all of my music on there. I can't do it
01:18:24
◼
►
Whereas with RAM it's more of a nebulous, you know, as you said some days a Safari tab needs to reload and
01:18:31
◼
►
But yeah, that is that is I guess one of the one of the obvious ways you can tell
01:18:34
◼
►
Yeah, and you know, I don't play ton of games on my phone
01:18:38
◼
►
But I know a lot of people do Jonas certainly does and they're you know games typically
01:18:43
◼
►
You know can use as much RAM as you can throw at them, right?
01:18:46
◼
►
Yeah, absolutely, you know
01:18:48
◼
►
So it's not so much that I personally on a day-to-day basis really really need more RAM in my iPhone
01:18:53
◼
►
But I think that the iPhone as a platform could use it. Yeah, right
01:18:57
◼
►
Yeah, absolutely.
01:18:58
◼
►
And the iPad too, especially if it's true that they're going to add some sort of multitasking
01:19:04
◼
►
type interface where you can run two apps at the same time.
01:19:09
◼
►
Yeah, I totally agree.
01:19:10
◼
►
I just can't see how they would spin an introduction where they say we've added two new sizes above
01:19:16
◼
►
it, but yet the four-inch one looks exactly the same as it used to.
01:19:22
◼
►
Honestly, if you look at, we're, especially you, I think,
01:19:27
◼
►
are very fixated on the devices
01:19:30
◼
►
and pay much more attention to them than most people.
01:19:32
◼
►
But I mean, if you look at a bunch of iPhones side by side,
01:19:37
◼
►
the user experience is not really very different
01:19:40
◼
►
between them from a consumer standpoint,
01:19:45
◼
►
you know what I mean?
01:19:46
◼
►
In that there's always been a home button at the bottom,
01:19:48
◼
►
there's a power button at the top.
01:19:49
◼
►
I guess the headphone jack moved,
01:19:51
◼
►
But would it really be that big a deal
01:19:54
◼
►
if the 4-inch had one case and the 4.7 and 5.5,
01:19:58
◼
►
if they exist, had a different case?
01:20:00
◼
►
- It's not, but it just seems weird.
01:20:03
◼
►
It just feels a little off to me
01:20:05
◼
►
that if they were all going to be on the-
01:20:07
◼
►
- The same level.
01:20:09
◼
►
- The same level spec-wise.
01:20:10
◼
►
It just would seem odd
01:20:11
◼
►
if one of them looked different than the others.
01:20:14
◼
►
Just seems a little off.
01:20:16
◼
►
And then that makes me think that if it's the case,
01:20:18
◼
►
that they're going to-
01:20:20
◼
►
- Your concern is that they're gonna bail
01:20:21
◼
►
on the four inch size, right?
01:20:23
◼
►
- Exactly, that's my concern is that the new,
01:20:26
◼
►
you know, AA top of the tier, top tier iPhones
01:20:29
◼
►
are only gonna be four seven and or five five.
01:20:33
◼
►
And that the four inch size will no longer
01:20:35
◼
►
even be made with metal, it'll drop,
01:20:37
◼
►
I don't know what they're gonna call it, the five CS,
01:20:39
◼
►
but that the, a phone with the five S specs
01:20:43
◼
►
will be in the plastic case that we saw last year
01:20:45
◼
►
at that $200 or $100 price level down.
01:20:50
◼
►
- Well, selfishly, I hope that's not the case,
01:20:53
◼
►
but I don't have any insight as to whether or not
01:20:55
◼
►
that'll be the case.
01:20:56
◼
►
- No, but nobody who's publishing these rumors does either,
01:20:59
◼
►
which just convinces me that all of the leaks
01:21:02
◼
►
are from the supply chain and none of them
01:21:04
◼
►
are from Cupertino.
01:21:07
◼
►
Whereas the only people who know it.
01:21:08
◼
►
Nobody even says how they're gonna price these things.
01:21:12
◼
►
Is the 5.5 inch going to be--
01:21:14
◼
►
Much more expensive.
01:21:15
◼
►
More expensive?
01:21:18
◼
►
With the iPads, you pay for the bigger size.
01:21:19
◼
►
You pay for the size and you pay for the storage, right?
01:21:23
◼
►
Does it make sense that you would have-- I just don't see how you do this.
01:21:25
◼
►
Maybe one of them is-- another possibility is that the 4.7 inch is the new flagship model,
01:21:37
◼
►
most expensive, and the 5.5 inch is the new 5C lower priced model.
01:21:43
◼
►
But then that seems weird to me that you, that somebody, let's say somebody who's older
01:21:50
◼
►
and has, you know, really wants the bigger phone because they really have trouble reading
01:21:55
◼
►
the smaller screen.
01:21:56
◼
►
They just want everything bigger because they want bigger text, which is a totally reasonable,
01:22:00
◼
►
perfectly, maybe the best example of why they should have multiple size iPhones available.
01:22:07
◼
►
But why would you be, why would you have to sacrifice on the specs to get the bigger screen
01:22:13
◼
►
because you really want the bigger screen. It doesn't make any sense to me. Like to me
01:22:16
◼
►
it makes the most sense to do it like the iPads and have same specs across the line
01:22:21
◼
►
and different price points. But I don't even know if the price differential on the iPads
01:22:27
◼
►
makes sense. Why is the iPad mini so much cheaper? I don't know. I guess the screens
01:22:32
◼
►
are I guess at a certain point you really just cost more to have a bigger screen.
01:22:36
◼
►
Yeah, screen and battery.
01:22:38
◼
►
Even if the pixels are the same.
01:22:40
◼
►
Yeah, because it needs a bigger screen physically and it needs a bigger battery physically.
01:22:45
◼
►
So what are you hoping for?
01:22:47
◼
►
I've had Marco on talking about this.
01:22:49
◼
►
I'm so confused about this.
01:22:51
◼
►
I really don't see how this is going to play out.
01:22:54
◼
►
Like I said, I try not to think about this until they've actually announced it and then
01:22:57
◼
►
I say, "Okay, that's the one I'm going to get."
01:23:00
◼
►
Like I said, I don't want a bigger phone.
01:23:03
◼
►
I certainly don't want a 5.5-inch phone.
01:23:05
◼
►
As you said, you've tried a phone like that.
01:23:07
◼
►
I've used a phone like that.
01:23:08
◼
►
It's way too big for my taste.
01:23:10
◼
►
It's really big.
01:23:11
◼
►
I can see why some people do.
01:23:13
◼
►
I can totally see why Apple would make it.
01:23:15
◼
►
But I certainly don't.
01:23:16
◼
►
I don't think I want it.
01:23:17
◼
►
And you don't want to be forced into getting it, almost, because you want the top-of-the-line
01:23:22
◼
►
phone as far as specs go.
01:23:26
◼
►
So yeah, I don't...
01:23:27
◼
►
I'm hopeful that a relatively reasonable size, physical size phone, will exist with the high-level
01:23:35
◼
►
But you know, like I said, we'll see in three months.
01:23:38
◼
►
The ACE, the A8, which I mentioned a few times, is maybe not even the best example of it because
01:23:43
◼
►
the iPads have the A7 too this year. The two things that the iPhone 5s has that no other
01:23:51
◼
►
iOS device has is it has a better camera.
01:23:55
◼
►
And it has touch ID. And anything else they might introduce along those lines is going
01:23:59
◼
►
to be in the iPhone first because the iPhone has the profit margins to support the top
01:24:05
◼
►
line. The camera, you know, for me personally, the camera is the most important thing. I would probably
01:24:10
◼
►
buy whichever iPhone has the best camera. Even if it's the 5.5 inch?
01:24:15
◼
►
Well, if it was only the 5.5 inch, man, that would, I don't know what I would do.
01:24:20
◼
►
Because I mean the camera has gotten pretty good. Like I went from the, I forget, I went from like
01:24:24
◼
►
the iPhone 1 to the 3G or 3GS maybe, and the difference was enormous. But at this point,
01:24:31
◼
►
you can certainly see a difference but it's pretty good already you you know what you still see the
01:24:36
◼
►
difference indoors okay outdoors i don't know that i can pepsi challenge it but indoors you can
01:24:41
◼
►
definitely still see the difference especially you know indoors and at night you know where low
01:24:45
◼
►
the low light situations you can definitely i i think i could easily tell the difference between
01:24:51
◼
►
a five and a 5s well but it's not even just telling the difference it's is the is the lower one
01:24:57
◼
►
pretty good and pretty acceptable.
01:25:00
◼
►
Well, and I still, because I'm, you know, as I get a semi-amateur camera enthusiast,
01:25:06
◼
►
and I have cameras, you know, real cameras that have fancy lenses and high ISO.
01:25:13
◼
►
So I know what it's like to have a camera that can do really well in low light.
01:25:18
◼
►
So I can see how much potential phone cameras still have to go in low light.
01:25:22
◼
►
To get to that point.
01:25:25
◼
►
Honestly, it would truly break my heart if the 5.5-inch display is the only way to go
01:25:31
◼
►
top of the line.
01:25:32
◼
►
I just can't see how they would make such an enormous leap because I'll tell you what,
01:25:36
◼
►
going from 4 inches to 5.5 inches...
01:25:40
◼
►
...is just huge.
01:25:42
◼
►
It sounds like you're just talking about an inch and a half, but it's not.
01:25:45
◼
►
It's just a so much bigger device.
01:25:49
◼
►
I think it's even bigger than like a Field Notes notebook.
01:25:52
◼
►
They're really, really big.
01:25:53
◼
►
And again, I can see why someone would want that.
01:25:56
◼
►
I totally understand the idea of, hey, I just want something right in the middle of a phone
01:26:00
◼
►
and a tablet because I'm going to use it all day long for these things.
01:26:03
◼
►
That's not how I use it.
01:26:05
◼
►
That's not what I want.
01:26:07
◼
►
I just want something that's as small as possible and not noticeable in my pocket until I want
01:26:12
◼
►
So I don't know.
01:26:13
◼
►
I really don't see how this is going to play out.
01:26:15
◼
►
Let me take a third break here.
01:26:18
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incremental and it just works they have over 100 petabytes of total data backed
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In other words, not that they've backed up 5 billion files,
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they've backed up way more than that,
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but 5 billion people who've needed to get their files
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restored from Backblaze have gotten them.
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They have an iOS app that lets you access and share
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any of your files, so if you're just on your iPhone
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and you need to get something from your Mac,
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you can just connect to Backblaze and get the version
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that was most recently backed up.
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You can restore one file, if you've just got one file,
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I'm going to get it from Backblaze. Go get it." Or all of your files easily with their Web Restore.
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It's founded by ex-Apple engineers. Backblaze runs natively on your Mac and on Mavericks.
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There's no add-ons, no gimmicks, no additional charges. If you're here $5 a month and think
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it's just too good to be true, it's really, that's the deal. It's just fantastic. I've been telling
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telling you about it for months. I can't believe all of you haven't signed up yet, but they
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keep coming back because people keep signing up. If you've been on the fence, I can't encourage
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you to do it strongly enough. It's great service. It just helps you sleep better at night knowing
01:28:25
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your stuff is ... Everything on your Mac is backed up offsite out of your house. Where
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do you go to find out more? www.backblaze.com/daringfireball. If you haven't signed up yet, I'd do a video
01:28:36
◼
►
Back blaze comm slash daring fireball if you haven't signed up yet. I'd you're not too bad. You're just crazy
01:28:43
◼
►
So bigger storage more RAM. I agree with you on that
01:28:47
◼
►
I didn't I don't know if we concluded on that
01:28:50
◼
►
But I do think they should go more and I think the way that people are shooting video
01:28:53
◼
►
I think that it's it's essential. I know I've had family members come to me with iPhones that are full up
01:28:59
◼
►
Yeah, yeah, and it's because they shoot so many videos and photos. I mean, it's
01:29:06
◼
►
I don't know. I think it's due. What else do we have on the agenda?
01:29:13
◼
►
What? Go ahead.
01:29:14
◼
►
Oh, so bigger iPhones. This is something I wanted to talk about last week when Guy was
01:29:17
◼
►
on. Just a small thing, but I don't know if you saw it. Did you see the State of the Union
01:29:23
◼
►
I haven't yet. As I said, I had to miss Dub-Dub for a family matter, and so I haven't caught
01:29:27
◼
►
up on all the videos yet.
01:29:29
◼
►
So the State of the Union is great. I recommend it for anybody who's only watched the keynote.
01:29:33
◼
►
I know that we're a couple weeks out from WWDC, but if you want to watch one more, I
01:29:37
◼
►
recommend that platforms stay--
01:29:38
◼
►
John: It is always worthwhile, especially as a developer, but in general, there's often
01:29:42
◼
►
stuff in there that you didn't hear about in the keynote, but that could have been in
01:29:45
◼
►
the keynote.
01:29:46
◼
►
Dave: Right.
01:29:47
◼
►
And if you're nerdy enough to--even if you're not a developer, but if you're nerdy enough
01:29:50
◼
►
to listen to this podcast, you're absolutely in the target audience for the State of the
01:29:56
◼
►
Because it's not super-codey.
01:29:57
◼
►
It's not a lot of example code.
01:30:01
◼
►
It's at the level of the show, I think.
01:30:03
◼
►
But they give you details that they just cannot fit into the keynote or that they just don't
01:30:07
◼
►
want to put in the morning keynote.
01:30:10
◼
►
And the big one, it's such a tell and it's so awkward, you know, like you said, where
01:30:14
◼
►
they've switched to this thing where they'll ship stuff at WWDC and software and then the
01:30:18
◼
►
hardware that comes out later in the year, it's like, "Oh, yeah, that's why they did
01:30:22
◼
►
Well, the stuff about multiple screen sizes is so, it's so obvious, but they can't say...
01:30:30
◼
►
Well, they won't say anyway.
01:30:33
◼
►
Well, right.
01:30:34
◼
►
They're not going to say, "Hey, we might be shipping iPhones with new pixel dimensions
01:30:38
◼
►
or new physical sizes."
01:30:39
◼
►
Or we might, when we unveil the iPad later, new iPads later this year, have a show a new
01:30:48
◼
►
feature where you can run two apps side by side.
01:30:51
◼
►
They just say like, "Hey, you know, in theory, you might want to support these new..."
01:30:56
◼
►
They call it adaptive apps, and it's sort of like responsive...what responsive layout
01:31:02
◼
►
is to web design.
01:31:03
◼
►
Right, where it works, and whatever the screen size is, it'll still work and look as if it
01:31:07
◼
►
was made natively for that size.
01:31:11
◼
►
And that they're switching from a model where there are two sizes you need to worry about,
01:31:17
◼
►
iPhone size and iPad size, and horizontal and vertical layout, and then a little asterisk
01:31:25
◼
►
for iPhone because there's still older ones that have a 3.5 inch instead of a 4 inch,
01:31:30
◼
►
but they really just added pixels to the top. They didn't really create a new…everything
01:31:34
◼
►
stayed exactly the same size. They just…
01:31:36
◼
►
Interviewer Just got taller.
01:31:37
◼
►
John Greenewald Just got taller. They're switching to a system
01:31:42
◼
►
where there's these one-third width, half width, full width, two-thirds width, and,
01:31:48
◼
►
you know, like the iPhone is considered a one-third width. And so it just seems pretty…like
01:31:54
◼
►
Without saying, "Hey, we might do this," they're telling you that your apps...
01:32:00
◼
►
Everybody should watch the State of the Union, and they talk about this.
01:32:03
◼
►
It's interesting both in terms of thinking about how it might work as a user and developer,
01:32:08
◼
►
and how it might...
01:32:09
◼
►
But it's also interesting, as anybody who's ever spoken publicly or is careful with their
01:32:14
◼
►
words, to look at the contortions that they're jumping through.
01:32:19
◼
►
And they do it pretty well.
01:32:21
◼
►
It's so hard. It'll make you laugh. It's really kind of funny and I almost feel bad for him.
01:32:26
◼
►
And then there's a whole session. I haven't actually watched it yet, but it's building
01:32:30
◼
►
adaptive apps with UI kit session 216. And the thing that's interesting too, and I still
01:32:37
◼
►
feel like this hasn't really gotten through to everybody yet. There's no NDA this year.
01:32:43
◼
►
Everybody can just go to developer.apple.com or just Google WWDC 2014 videos. It's easier,
01:32:49
◼
►
it /videos/wwdc/2014. And they have all the videos from WWDC, and you don't even need
01:32:56
◼
►
an ADC account. You don't have to log in. You just click the video you want and start
01:33:01
◼
►
watching it. So everybody, you don't even have to sign up for a developer account. You
01:33:04
◼
►
can just go watch session 216 and see them talk about it.
01:33:08
◼
►
Yeah, I had a note that I wanted to mention that it's interesting that the NDA has been
01:33:13
◼
►
lifted on all of this. And they just before the conference talked about how there can
01:33:20
◼
►
be access to betas of the OS. But as a developer, it's tremendously annoying to have even more
01:33:29
◼
►
people running a beta OS before it's out.
01:33:32
◼
►
interesting. That's I you know, I that occurred to me and it's
01:33:37
◼
►
yeah, I thought about that. But as my personal interest as a
01:33:45
◼
►
developer at Q branch, we're still iOS only and iOS is not
01:33:48
◼
►
having a public beta. Whereas at rogue amoeba, the max, you guys
01:33:53
◼
►
are almost all Mac. And or is it all not have something for them.
01:33:59
◼
►
But it's but for the most part, though, the company, it's a Mac
01:34:01
◼
►
company with it with some toes dipped in the iOS pool and you guys are gonna have people running
01:34:08
◼
►
the public beta of Yosemite. Right and people always did this who I don't want to say shouldn't
01:34:15
◼
►
have but you know didn't necessarily need to and it was always a little bit of a struggle because
01:34:22
◼
►
you know we'd have to say we're not there yet we're working on it but if you need your stuff
01:34:26
◼
►
to work on a daily basis, don't run a beta OS. I mean, that's just good advice in general, right?
01:34:32
◼
►
Yeah, it's definitely good advice. Anybody out there who's thinking about participating in the
01:34:38
◼
►
Yosemite public beta, you know, was right. I mean, if you not, we're not saying don't do it. I'm
01:34:43
◼
►
saying no, you've got to take responsibility. That's exactly it. And and you've got to take
01:34:48
◼
►
responsibility for what and the more people that are doing it, the more emails we're going to get
01:34:52
◼
►
that say, you know, this isn't working, whatever. And we want to support these people as soon as we
01:34:56
◼
►
can, but we also have limited resources. And so I don't know if this will help Apple or
01:35:02
◼
►
not because I think they had pretty good testing both internally and from developers in previous
01:35:07
◼
►
years. So I'm not really sure what they're striving for with this sort of change to opening
01:35:13
◼
►
it up a little bit more.
01:35:15
◼
►
In theory, if there's something stupid simple that's like really just like a line of code
01:35:21
◼
►
and you know what it is that this thing we could do this and
01:35:25
◼
►
maybe we'll ship a point one update. And it'll make things
01:35:29
◼
►
run better on Yosemite public beta. Sure, you might do that you
01:35:34
◼
►
could do that it just in a way that you even if there was no
01:35:37
◼
►
public beta might roll out. But updates of your apps over
01:35:42
◼
►
summer, if you can work one in that does make things better
01:35:44
◼
►
under Yosemite, you'll do it you might have done it anyway,
01:35:46
◼
►
because it'll help you because you'll be running it. But you
01:35:50
◼
►
can't run your company you can't support a beta operating system and
01:35:56
◼
►
that's exactly it and and so like I said I don't know what Apple's hoping to
01:35:59
◼
►
accomplish with this and I hope they do get something out of it but it's
01:36:02
◼
►
definitely frustrating for us as as developers because ideally you're gonna
01:36:07
◼
►
want to you're gonna want to support Yosemite either when it officially ships
01:36:11
◼
►
out of beta or soon thereafter all of your possible right all right day one if
01:36:16
◼
►
possible if not as soon afterwards as possible but that's because once it's
01:36:20
◼
►
out of beta it's a stable target that's the thing yeah that's the thing to you
01:36:24
◼
►
make a great point there that right now it's completely all over the map and
01:36:28
◼
►
things can change drastically between releases and trying to track every
01:36:33
◼
►
single one of those changes across weekly or monthly releases before it's
01:36:37
◼
►
in the public's hands is not a good way to run a company right it's you can't
01:36:42
◼
►
target a moving target well you could you can try to it's way more worse you
01:36:46
◼
►
you'll end up wasting time you know and it could be something like a cosmetic
01:36:50
◼
►
bug like you know this doesn't look good because it's doesn't render well on the
01:36:56
◼
►
transparent such-and-such and it ends up by the time it ships it's no longer even
01:37:01
◼
►
transparent because they've tried and you spent time we're fixing it for two
01:37:04
◼
►
weeks worth of right yeah so anyway and it happened you cannot do it and and
01:37:10
◼
►
And again, I've been there, even way back when I was at Barebones, we went through it
01:37:14
◼
►
with BB Edit on the public beta of Mac OS X.
01:37:18
◼
►
Well, but I mean, are you talking pre-10.0, the actual public betas then?
01:37:23
◼
►
Because those were actually almost releases.
01:37:27
◼
►
That's probably a bad example because I think we only had the native carbon version of BB
01:37:34
◼
►
Edit was internally beta tested.
01:37:36
◼
►
We didn't have a public beta of that.
01:37:38
◼
►
there I remember though being at bare-bones though maybe not the 10.0
01:37:42
◼
►
but like 10.1 and 10.2 and all you know even before that even the betas of
01:37:46
◼
►
Mac OS 9 you know that the various updates to it that we'd get bug reports
01:37:52
◼
►
from people who were running it and it's like thanks for filing the bug we do
01:37:56
◼
►
appreciate that report the bug but don't you don't expect us to have this fixed
01:38:00
◼
►
on the schedule that we would for a similar bug on a shipping version of
01:38:05
◼
►
Yeah, that's exactly it
01:38:07
◼
►
Right anyway. Yeah, that's interesting. I'm interested to see how that aspect of it plays out and how popular the public be
01:38:13
◼
►
Well, I should you know, I mentioned this but I should say it hasn't been a huge issue
01:38:17
◼
►
It's not as if we've seen an influx of people running this who shouldn't be or you know
01:38:21
◼
►
Ah, but they haven't started the public beta yet for Yosemite. There's none right now at all. I
01:38:25
◼
►
Don't know. Am I wrong? Well, then I guess we'll see if I'm like I said, I'm sort of out of it
01:38:31
◼
►
as far as DubDub goes.
01:38:33
◼
►
- You'll know in the next episode of the talk show
01:38:35
◼
►
if I start by apologizing.
01:38:36
◼
►
I'm nearly certain that the public beta hasn't started.
01:38:39
◼
►
- You may well be right.
01:38:40
◼
►
I mean, I'm running it on one of my machines,
01:38:41
◼
►
but that doesn't mean, you know,
01:38:43
◼
►
I got it from the developers area.
01:38:45
◼
►
- Yeah, my hope is that they're waiting
01:38:47
◼
►
for a significantly better.
01:38:49
◼
►
I think that the two betas are actually pretty good
01:38:51
◼
►
for June. - Right.
01:38:52
◼
►
- You know, both iOS 8 and Yosemite.
01:38:54
◼
►
I've got machines, I've got devices running both here.
01:38:59
◼
►
And they're both pretty good for June betas.
01:39:01
◼
►
- Especially compared to past years.
01:39:03
◼
►
- Yeah, past years, the June ones
01:39:05
◼
►
have usually been unusable.
01:39:07
◼
►
You know, it's like, I'll come back to it in mid July
01:39:09
◼
►
when they've got it.
01:39:10
◼
►
To me, they seem like they're ahead
01:39:11
◼
►
of where they've been in the past years,
01:39:12
◼
►
but I wouldn't recommend them to anybody
01:39:14
◼
►
to depend on in either case.
01:39:16
◼
►
- No, and a big thing is that a lot of the time,
01:39:20
◼
►
the features that they've talked about aren't in there yet.
01:39:22
◼
►
- Yes, that's absolutely true.
01:39:25
◼
►
- So you wanna run these and see like,
01:39:26
◼
►
oh, they talked about this new stuff, I wanna see it.
01:39:28
◼
►
and then if you install it, you're not actually gonna see it for another month because it's
01:39:31
◼
►
not there yet.
01:39:33
◼
►
So, I don't know.
01:39:34
◼
►
I'm optimistic that they're...
01:39:36
◼
►
I'm curious about it though because it does seem to be of a piece with this whole opening
01:39:41
◼
►
up of Apple.
01:39:42
◼
►
You know, that they're a little bit, you know, not in a radical departure but in a slight
01:39:47
◼
►
shift of course.
01:39:48
◼
►
You know, Angela Ahrendts had a LinkedIn blog post yesterday on what it's like to be starting
01:39:54
◼
►
a new job at a new company.
01:39:56
◼
►
It wasn't particularly revealing.
01:39:58
◼
►
It was, you know, right.
01:40:01
◼
►
And it was, you know, there were no secrets.
01:40:03
◼
►
There's nothing gossipy or shocking or notable.
01:40:05
◼
►
It was, you know, well-written and interesting.
01:40:08
◼
►
It's an interesting perspective.
01:40:10
◼
►
But the thing that's most interesting is that a senior vice president at Apple posted a
01:40:16
◼
►
here's what I'm up to blog post on LinkedIn, right, which has never happened before.
01:40:21
◼
►
as LinkedIn but on any kind of social network or blog or anything like that.
01:40:26
◼
►
Well, besides when Steve Jobs was blogging on Apple.com with like thoughts on music and
01:40:32
◼
►
Yeah, but even then it wasn't personal. It was like two times in the entire history of
01:40:36
◼
►
Apple Steve Jobs wrote, "Here's something you've bastardly made me actually address."
01:40:45
◼
►
Thoughts on music and then thoughts on Flash.
01:40:47
◼
►
That's right. That was the other one, Flash. Yeah. How'd that work out? If we have Flash
01:40:51
◼
►
on the iPhone yet?
01:40:54
◼
►
You know, there's people that, somebody emailed me about that the other day. Some reader wanted
01:40:58
◼
►
me to do like a claim chat on RoundUp on Mobile Flash because the people who were adamant
01:41:03
◼
►
that it was--
01:41:04
◼
►
It could never be a success without it.
01:41:06
◼
►
Right. Seemed to have conveniently lost their interest in the cause.
01:41:14
◼
►
No, I don't believe so. I'm more curious, are there any devices you can go out and buy
01:41:18
◼
►
today that have--
01:41:19
◼
►
have flash right through the android do current android devices have it or
01:41:23
◼
►
right i don't think so i think you'd have to buy like a super low-end android
01:41:27
◼
►
phone that's running an ancient version of android you know
01:41:30
◼
►
to get it like a two-point something version i don't think android supported
01:41:33
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►
it in the entire 4.0 versions and that 4.0
01:41:37
◼
►
is a couple years old yeah yeah everybody's given up on it all right i
01:41:41
◼
►
don't even know blackberry still supports it
01:41:43
◼
►
they just had some new phones didn't they yeah
01:41:48
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►
It's funny. It's funny how hard it is for a company to actually like the the the the candle to actually go out, right?
01:41:54
◼
►
right, well, it's like do you remember the
01:41:56
◼
►
the load sis like
01:41:59
◼
►
lawsuits against Unix and Linux
01:42:01
◼
►
This is this they were suing
01:42:04
◼
►
Linux and maybe Unix I forget what the deal was that they owned some piece of Unix and therefore were suing Linux
01:42:11
◼
►
I think was the deal and
01:42:12
◼
►
These lawsuits went on for like a decade and they kept losing them
01:42:16
◼
►
but they kept filing them and it was always a concern
01:42:20
◼
►
that this was gonna impact something like Android
01:42:24
◼
►
where it's actually, even if it's not true Linux,
01:42:27
◼
►
it's built around it and if one of these lawsuits
01:42:30
◼
►
was successful, suddenly somebody might be taking
01:42:32
◼
►
a huge chunk of money out of some big company.
01:42:35
◼
►
And yeah, anyway, the point was that it took over a decade
01:42:39
◼
►
I think before they, as you said, the candle finally went out
01:42:41
◼
►
and they finally gave up and said, all right, we're done.
01:42:44
◼
►
And it's a similar thing with BlackBerry
01:42:46
◼
►
where the company is just limping along and I mean they must have had some money in the
01:42:50
◼
►
bank too the way Apple does not to that extent but.
01:42:54
◼
►
Yeah I guess so I don't know it's just it's I don't know I expected something spectacular
01:42:59
◼
►
to have happened by now either like we're out we're turning out the lights and we're
01:43:04
◼
►
we've sold our I you know the way I expected to go is we've sold ourselves to I don't know
01:43:10
◼
►
LG or HTC or I don't know some somebody like that we've sold ourselves to and now we're
01:43:15
◼
►
Blackberry's just a name that's owned by this other company.
01:43:18
◼
►
- Right, like Napster got sold a couple times that way.
01:43:21
◼
►
- Yeah, but it hasn't happened yet.
01:43:23
◼
►
And yet, like you said, they're still coming out
01:43:25
◼
►
with new phones and it's like, I feel sorry for them.
01:43:28
◼
►
I don't know, anybody who's still left.
01:43:31
◼
►
- They don't look terrible, but they don't look
01:43:33
◼
►
at least a bit competitive with everything else
01:43:35
◼
►
that's going on. - Right.
01:43:37
◼
►
- Or Palm, you know, right?
01:43:39
◼
►
Like Palm just disappeared, you know?
01:43:41
◼
►
It's like I've ever thought something would've happened
01:43:44
◼
►
You know, that BlackBerry is going to either disappear or get sold.
01:43:47
◼
►
Well, Palm got bought by HP, right?
01:43:49
◼
►
Yeah, I think that's where they went.
01:43:51
◼
►
I know HP wound up with them at some point because the tablet-sized ones were HP devices.
01:43:58
◼
►
What were they called?
01:43:59
◼
►
The touchpad?
01:44:00
◼
►
Yeah, I think that's right.
01:44:01
◼
►
But yeah, BlackBerry is limping along still.
01:44:04
◼
►
And that was the thing.
01:44:06
◼
►
I was surprised to see this announcement.
01:44:07
◼
►
I think it was this week or last week.
01:44:09
◼
►
And I haven't even looked at the phones, but I've never been interested.
01:44:12
◼
►
it's interesting that they're still able to put something in.
01:44:16
◼
►
- Yeah, but I don't, you know, you never,
01:44:18
◼
►
just walking around the city, you never see
01:44:20
◼
►
BlackBerry posters in the carrier stores anymore
01:44:22
◼
►
or anything, it's, you know,
01:44:24
◼
►
it's almost like they're not there.
01:44:25
◼
►
I mean, I'm sure you can go in and buy one, but,
01:44:28
◼
►
I don't know.
01:44:29
◼
►
I would guess that most of the ones that are still being
01:44:31
◼
►
sold are like the old style ones, not the new--
01:44:33
◼
►
- With the keyboard versus the touchscreen, you mean?
01:44:36
◼
►
- Yeah. - Right.
01:44:37
◼
►
The ones that, you know, people who are just
01:44:38
◼
►
BlackBerry diehards who've just skipped out
01:44:40
◼
►
on the whole iOS Android type computing thing
01:44:43
◼
►
and still just, they just want a replacement
01:44:45
◼
►
for the BlackBerry that they have.
01:44:48
◼
►
- Right, which isn't unreasonable.
01:44:49
◼
►
It's not a good business going forward, but it's--
01:44:51
◼
►
- No, but if you have something that works
01:44:52
◼
►
and then it eventually breaks 'cause it's been five years,
01:44:55
◼
►
you may well want the exact same thing.
01:44:57
◼
►
- Right, I totally understand that mindset.
01:44:59
◼
►
I mean, I personally, obviously don't, you know,
01:45:03
◼
►
when it comes to phones, I don't feel that way,
01:45:04
◼
►
but there's other things in my life that if it breaks,
01:45:07
◼
►
I just wanna buy the exact same thing.
01:45:08
◼
►
exact same thing.
01:45:09
◼
►
Oh, your goddamn keyboard, John.
01:45:11
◼
►
My keyboard.
01:45:12
◼
►
I have the same – I bought like four or five pairs of the same sneakers.
01:45:17
◼
►
You know, I don't care what the new sneakers are.
01:45:19
◼
►
Just give me a new pair of Samba Millennium.
01:45:21
◼
►
Right, right.
01:45:22
◼
►
Or whatever they're called.
01:45:24
◼
►
I think that's it for my list this week.
01:45:29
◼
►
Well, I got one more for you.
01:45:30
◼
►
You got a topic?
01:45:31
◼
►
You got something to throw in?
01:45:32
◼
►
I do have one more.
01:45:33
◼
►
You got a little bonus?
01:45:34
◼
►
And this is important to me.
01:45:35
◼
►
Did you see – it was last week.
01:45:37
◼
►
you see the announcement of these new emoji emoji no oh no I didn't I saw that
01:45:43
◼
►
there were but I didn't see what was okay well so so there's two things
01:45:46
◼
►
actually iOS 8 makes it promotes emoji to like a top-level keyboard now so
01:45:51
◼
►
instead of by default it used to be you had to turn on the emoji keyboard oh
01:45:55
◼
►
right yeah and now iOS 8 has it there by default for everybody which is actually
01:46:00
◼
►
a little bit interesting because it indicates Apple feels this is part of
01:46:03
◼
►
of the culture now, the same way punctuation is almost.
01:46:08
◼
►
So I thought that was kind of interesting, but--
01:46:10
◼
►
- Right, there's a smiley button on the keyboard.
01:46:11
◼
►
- That's exactly it.
01:46:12
◼
►
Instead of hitting the globe and pulling up other keyboards,
01:46:14
◼
►
you just hit the smiley button basically.
01:46:17
◼
►
But yeah, so last week, the standard got released
01:46:20
◼
►
for like 240, 250 new emoji.
01:46:24
◼
►
And the way that it works is that each platform,
01:46:27
◼
►
Apple, Android, Twitter, has to then create illustrations
01:46:31
◼
►
for this and make it part of their OS
01:46:34
◼
►
or part of their platform.
01:46:35
◼
►
And I wrote about this today,
01:46:37
◼
►
but the one that I'm very excited about
01:46:40
◼
►
and I'm a little worried about
01:46:41
◼
►
is there is now going to be a middle finger emoji.
01:46:44
◼
►
- Is there really?
01:46:45
◼
►
- There is a, I forget the exact name,
01:46:47
◼
►
but it's hand with middle finger raised.
01:46:50
◼
►
You know, they have longer names.
01:46:54
◼
►
- I'm looking at your website now.
01:46:57
◼
►
- There you go, yeah.
01:46:58
◼
►
So it's, what's it called?
01:47:01
◼
►
reversed hand with middle finger extended.
01:47:03
◼
►
And it's a hand flipping the bird.
01:47:06
◼
►
Now my concern though, and this is a question for you,
01:47:10
◼
►
is Apple going to include this?
01:47:12
◼
►
- Oh, now that's a fascinating question.
01:47:16
◼
►
This is why you put Paul Kvassus on your show.
01:47:20
◼
►
That's a damn good question, Paul.
01:47:22
◼
►
- Because Apple, they've got the pile of poo in there,
01:47:26
◼
►
but at the same time, their app store is fairly restrictive.
01:47:30
◼
►
There's no pornography in there.
01:47:32
◼
►
There's no risque content.
01:47:35
◼
►
- Is pile of poo, is the emoji description pile of poo?
01:47:40
◼
►
- That is the actual name of it, yeah.
01:47:42
◼
►
If you look in the Unicode table, it's called pile of poo.
01:47:45
◼
►
- And so there's no reason that you would have to turn it
01:47:49
◼
►
into a googly-eyed smiley face.
01:47:51
◼
►
- No, it's not happy face.
01:47:52
◼
►
It's not happy pile of poo.
01:47:53
◼
►
It's not smiley pile of poo.
01:47:55
◼
►
It's literally just pile of poo.
01:47:57
◼
►
- It could be an ugly rank.
01:48:00
◼
►
smelly with flies buzzing around it.
01:48:02
◼
►
- Yeah, like little stink rays coming out of a pile of poo.
01:48:06
◼
►
And instead it's a very, very happy, you know,
01:48:09
◼
►
your doctor is gonna be very happy
01:48:13
◼
►
with your school special.
01:48:14
◼
►
- If it looks like this guy, yeah.
01:48:16
◼
►
- Yeah, you're eating well, you're taking care of yourself.
01:48:19
◼
►
- But so the thing is that, you know,
01:48:21
◼
►
they're restrictive in some regards and then not in others,
01:48:24
◼
►
but this is a standard.
01:48:26
◼
►
And what's interesting is that they were talking
01:48:29
◼
►
couple months ago about introducing diversity into the emoji and they wanted to have basically
01:48:35
◼
►
there's a whole lot of white people in the emoji which is interesting because it comes
01:48:39
◼
►
from Japan so it's a little strange but Apple said you know we want to have other other
01:48:45
◼
►
races represented in there and they said they might just do it themselves and they can take
01:48:50
◼
►
instead of like smiling elderly person they can make that a smiling elderly person of
01:48:55
◼
►
a different race. So I don't know, you know, they have the authority on their own platforms
01:49:02
◼
►
to make this not quite a middle finger, I think. And I'm worried that I'm going to have
01:49:07
◼
►
to switch to Android if this happens.
01:49:12
◼
►
Reversed hand with middle finger extended. Well...
01:49:16
◼
►
I mean, can you draw that in a way that follows that guideline without it being a middle finger?
01:49:20
◼
►
Yeah, well look at that. You're obviously not an emoji lawyer as I am. I actually have
01:49:26
◼
►
a JD in emoji law. So reversed hand, you do need to show the back of the hand. The middle
01:49:33
◼
►
finger extended does need to be extended, but there's no reason you couldn't have another
01:49:37
◼
►
finger extended.
01:49:38
◼
►
That's exactly it. You toss up another finger and it's not incorrect. And then suddenly
01:49:42
◼
►
I'm not flipping somebody the bird, I'm giving them a peace sign.
01:49:45
◼
►
Right. Right. Yeah, exactly. Or a Spock sign.
01:49:50
◼
►
that is one of the new ones that's it I saw that one in there the what I call
01:49:55
◼
►
that the Vulcan symbol yeah that's already that's already a little long and
01:49:57
◼
►
prosper I feel like you could officially comply with the description by putting
01:50:03
◼
►
another finger up there I'm worried I'm worried John that's a good question what
01:50:09
◼
►
will they got to do the right thing here they got to give me the middle finger
01:50:13
◼
►
yeah you know would be it would it would it would fit with it wouldn't comply
01:50:21
◼
►
with the description at all but it would fit with previous frustrations with
01:50:26
◼
►
similar curse words in in prose if they just replaced it with a picture of a duck
01:50:36
◼
►
right right right you would go to insert this emoji and you get it's gonna duck
01:50:42
◼
►
like. Nice. That's my guess. My guess is they're just going to put a picture of a duck. Son
01:50:49
◼
►
of a bitch. We'll see. I'm hopeful. This is great. Now I'm on pins and needles to see
01:50:56
◼
►
how this turns out. And it could be months. We don't know. Because the way the standard
01:50:59
◼
►
works, you know, it gets announced and then they implement it over time. So I don't know
01:51:03
◼
►
if it'll be part of iOS 8 or iOS 9, but I'm eager to see it and I hope we get what we
01:51:08
◼
►
deserve yeah do you know if there was there any controversy over this you know
01:51:13
◼
►
I didn't not that I saw it it's a standards body that you know the the
01:51:21
◼
►
the companies that comply to the standards still have a lot of leeway
01:51:25
◼
►
rather so if you look you know things look different on different platforms so
01:51:29
◼
►
yeah I'm gonna go with no I think they're not gonna do it I mean they did
01:51:33
◼
►
pile of poo though I wonder would there be a way that they would add a parental
01:51:37
◼
►
control that you can't... On your emoji keyboard? Right. Well, but the thing is that if you
01:51:42
◼
►
don't know what it means, then it's just a middle finger sticking up, right? I mean,
01:51:45
◼
►
it's not... Do they have other fingers? Can you get every single finger of the hand? I
01:51:50
◼
►
mean, there's already pointing fingers. Like pointing with the pointer finger and up and
01:51:54
◼
►
down and... I don't know if there's one for every finger. I don't think there is. But
01:52:00
◼
►
I mean, like, you could just tell your kid this means one. Like, I mean, that's probably
01:52:05
◼
►
bad lesson to teach your kid I guess. Yeah make sure you emphasize that lesson
01:52:10
◼
►
before the first day of kindergarten. This means what? Duck you Paul. Duck you John.