The Talk Show

66: Geared Up For CES


00:00:00   Are you geared up?

00:00:02   To stalk cute girls at the ski lodge

00:00:09   Can you imagine not having?

00:00:12   Galaxy gear at CES. It's like they don't even let you in

00:00:17   They hand them out at the airport I

00:00:20   Saw I took a I don't even know why I don't know I took a stupid poll

00:00:28   I somebody linked to it on Twitter on time Time magazine site today

00:00:32   It was like answer these questions and will predict your political leaning and they're not political questions ostensibly

00:00:42   You know, it's not like you know, what do you think about gun control or something like that?

00:00:48   And I came out 72%

00:00:52   conservative

00:00:54   according to this and one of them was that

00:00:56   conservative qualities was that I like dogs more than cats

00:00:59   Interesting, but I don't think that that's I think that's nonsense. I mean, I'm not saying that I don't think that there's any kind of I

00:01:07   Don't know. Maybe I'm wrong though. Maybe if you pulled a thousand people maybe you know, maybe conservatives do like dogs more than

00:01:15   Liberals, I don't know. It seems crazy to me

00:01:18   It seems that the the internet has

00:01:22   Embrace cats more than dogs. I don't know why

00:01:27   But I don't like cats at all

00:01:30   Yeah, I probably just lost a lot of my audience there. Sorry

00:01:35   We talk about baseball. Yeah. No, we should talk about we could talk about the pappies. Yeah

00:01:42   Well for people who don't know but there's there's a

00:01:48   Well bourbon is a very complex story, but there's a bourbon brand called pappy van Winkle

00:01:53   And and I guess they were out for a while, you know like back in the 70s or 80s

00:01:57   I don't know and they brought it back and they had this old mash and they've you know, it's a high-end brand and they have various

00:02:04   What would you call it vintages ages, you know, there's tenure pappies 12 year pappies a

00:02:11   13 year old rye which I believe since it's a rye is an entirely different mash

00:02:17   It's really sort of it's the same brand, but it's a different beverage. There's a 15 year pappies

00:02:22   20 year and then there's a 23

00:02:24   And I think long story short, you know, it was it's sort of an aficionados brand and you know

00:02:32   The older it is the more expensive it was and it was always a little hard to find and a little expensive

00:02:36   but then somehow at some point in the last two years or so it it it like

00:02:42   exploded and everybody got on, you know kind of caught on to the

00:02:46   the this pappy van Winkle stuff is fantastic.

00:02:49   And now it's impossible to get any of it.

00:02:53   More or less. - I had never heard of it

00:02:54   until there was a scandal about it being stolen or something.

00:02:59   - That is correct. - I'd never heard of it.

00:03:02   And then like, I don't know, six months ago or something,

00:03:06   it was like, pappy's is a huge deal.

00:03:09   You need to care about it.

00:03:11   And I had never heard of it.

00:03:12   - There was a inside job at the,

00:03:16   I don't know if it's the distillery

00:03:17   or if it's just where they store it,

00:03:19   but it was an inside job and a whole bunch of cases of it

00:03:22   were stolen about six months ago.

00:03:24   I believe the crime has still gone unsolved.

00:03:27   And Pennsylvania-- - Is that what you were

00:03:31   drinking? - No, I don't know.

00:03:32   Everybody was joking about that.

00:03:34   I don't know.

00:03:35   I don't think so.

00:03:36   Pennsylvania is a weird state where everybody,

00:03:37   including bars, has to buy stuff through the state.

00:03:41   I don't know.

00:03:44   and gets very tricky for bars to obtain it.

00:03:47   But a local establishment, we're very close to me here,

00:03:51   great barbecue place.

00:03:52   Also, clearly a great bar, Percy Street Barbecue

00:03:56   at 9th and South here in Philadelphia.

00:04:00   Got their hands on the full six flights,

00:04:04   the full six varieties of stuff from the Van Winkle Distillery,

00:04:09   and had a special event yesterday at 5 o'clock.

00:04:13   I had no idea how it was going to go, but I figured it was going to fill up quick, so

00:04:16   I got there before five, which was good because I think they said by like 5.15 they were out.

00:04:22   Well, what they did, and I think it was pretty smart, so they had all six.

00:04:27   I can't help but think they had more of the lesser varieties, but when you came in the

00:04:33   door for the event, there was a guy at the front door, and you had to tell him there

00:04:37   was a limit of three ounces per patron of anything.

00:04:42   person could only get three ounces, and you had to pick it as you came in and they would

00:04:46   give you like a little chip. So I picked two ounces of 23 and one ounce of 20. So I got

00:04:54   two chips for 23 and one for 20. And then you know, you could use that as you wanted

00:05:00   if I wanted a single two ounce pour of 23 I could have turned into I went 111 I went

00:05:07   123 than one of the 20 just sort of you know, see what the difference was and then back to the 23

00:05:14   And and they advertised it as not breaking the bank because I think they could have charged an arm and a leg for the stuff

00:05:21   but they charged

00:05:22   Very very fair prices. Yeah, cuz that's part of the legend too that that you cost

00:05:27   $200 for a glass of the you know, the good stuff. Yeah

00:05:32   Well, and then now that it's gotten crazy like I mean quick look on eBay here

00:05:36   People are selling one thing you search from on eBay for for pappy van Winkle, most of what you

00:05:45   find are empty bottles, people just selling the bottles, which I can't help but think it. I mean,

00:05:53   who wants an empty? I mean, maybe I can see why some people might want to keep a bottle that they

00:05:58   drank if it was a special occasion. Keep it as a memento or something like that. But why would you

00:06:06   want to buy an empty bottle from somebody else unless you were looking to like fill

00:06:11   it up with something else and sell it.

00:06:15   You know, I don't get it.

00:06:17   Well, when I was in like high school and college, I used to order a lot of beer branded nonsense

00:06:24   off eBay, you know, Zippo lighter and inflatable fish and stuff just weird, like Miller High

00:06:31   Life crap, which I thought was cool.

00:06:34   But yeah, I don't know why you would order an empty bottle of...

00:06:38   I've heard...

00:06:39   I can't even find it here on eBay, but some people have said that...

00:06:42   I don't even know how legal it is.

00:06:44   I guess in certain states it's legal to sell alcohol on eBay.

00:06:48   But that on the secondhand market, the 23-year Pappy Van Winkle is going for like $2,000,

00:06:54   $2,500 a bottle, because it's just you can't get it.

00:06:59   The retail price is a lot less than...

00:07:00   I think the retail price for the 23 is a couple hundred bucks.

00:07:05   - And is it awesome?

00:07:07   - I don't think any bourbon is worth

00:07:10   a couple hundred bucks a bottle, frankly.

00:07:12   You know what I mean?

00:07:13   I like to spend the money on,

00:07:14   I do like to indulge and buy good stuff in life,

00:07:17   including finer, I like bourbon,

00:07:20   so I like to buy good bourbon.

00:07:22   But to me, it isn't even what I could theoretically afford.

00:07:28   It's like at a certain point, it's just bourbon.

00:07:30   You know, and it's like--

00:07:31   - Yeah, exactly.

00:07:32   - You can't drink that much at a time.

00:07:33   And I'm very, very, I feel pretty confident

00:07:36   that I would fail to do a Pepsi challenge between a,

00:07:41   or it would be like a coin flip.

00:07:46   I don't know that I could taste the difference between.

00:07:49   Like you could, if you put six bourbons in front of me

00:07:54   and said one of these is 23 Pappy Van Winkle,

00:07:56   I'm not entirely sure at all that I could figure that out.

00:08:00   - Does it have, you know, Pappy in general,

00:08:01   does it have like a strong noticeable taste or flavor

00:08:05   or is it just bourbon that's good?

00:08:07   - Well, one thing that they're, and it came out recently,

00:08:10   is that the one thing that they do differently

00:08:14   than a lot of other bourbons, or almost all of the bourbons,

00:08:16   is that they have a higher, or no, it's all,

00:08:21   an all wheat that they don't,

00:08:24   They put the minimum amount of corn in.

00:08:29   That there's another bourbon called JL Weller, which is made from the same mash.

00:08:36   There was this thing I linked to on Daring Fireball a month or two ago, which it tried

00:08:42   to explain the complicated relationship between various bourbons and rye's in Kentucky and

00:08:49   Tennessee and Ohio and the other places where they're made in the US.

00:08:54   all these really just two vats right yeah more or less where there's only a

00:08:57   couple of what they call that they start with a mash and then the mash you know

00:09:01   it's sold to these distilleries to turn into bourbon but you know and

00:09:06   presumably what happens is they'll take the same mash that's meant to you know

00:09:10   in pappies the pappy van Winkle distillery will buy it and they'll

00:09:14   they'll put it you know they'll put it into barrels for aging and then they'll

00:09:20   sample these every couple years just to see you know, how's this

00:09:24   barrel going? How's this barrel going? And that the better the

00:09:26   barrel, the more the longer you know, they'll let it go and only

00:09:30   the best of those barrels will go for the full 23 years and

00:09:33   that the lesser ones will, you know, they'll say okay, this

00:09:36   one, let's just bottle this one at 10. This one's, you know,

00:09:39   it's not going to get any better. And then they'll bottle

00:09:41   it. But that there's this other brand JL Weller, which is it

00:09:45   retails for like, I think it's like 1819 bucks a bottle, but

00:09:49   it's made from the same mash as pappy and that it's effectively you know like

00:09:56   a poor man's pappy it's more or less like the same mash but like the stuff

00:09:59   that wasn't good enough to be turned into pappies and that yeah it does taste

00:10:03   a lot like pappies it's smooth but ginger ale in it who cares you know just

00:10:07   I know what is is that they don't put any rye at all in that in their mash and

00:10:15   so you know if you know just basic American whiskies you know the

00:10:21   difference between bourbon and rye is that rye is sort of peppery and hot is

00:10:27   the basic difference between a basic bourbon and a basic rye. Pappies to me

00:10:31   and it's not just knowing that it doesn't have rye it's like sort of the

00:10:35   taste of it is sort of what rye is to bourbon Pappy is the opposite to regular

00:10:41   bourbon. It's less peppery, less hot and smoother and really is a lot more drinkable neat.

00:10:48   Anyway, the tasting was pretty neat. Cool. Yeah, I'll definitely have to try it sometime.

00:10:54   But you know, and it's and I did, I Instagrammed it and everybody's like, I got to go there. But

00:10:58   it was like, it was like a one time only thing. Yeah. You had 15 minutes to come in and get these

00:11:02   tokens and then we drank them out of it. That's awesome. Yeah, I was just in Tokyo and I brought

00:11:07   back some whiskey but I haven't really had a chance to crack into it yet.

00:11:14   The other thing I thought was definitely true is side by side going from the 23 to the 20

00:11:19   and back to the 23 I absolutely tasted the difference.

00:11:24   The 23 which I think I only had once before in my life and it was on a trip to Vancouver

00:11:33   three or four years ago with a bunch of friends for somebody's birthday.

00:11:39   It was before the whole Pappy's thing exploded.

00:11:43   Me and my pal Jim Ray saw it on the list of the whiskeys available.

00:11:51   We're like, "How can this possibly be?"

00:11:53   It was like a totally reasonable price per pour.

00:11:55   I don't know, like $20 a pour.

00:11:58   We asked, we're like, "Are you sure it's 23?"

00:12:00   They were like, "Yeah."

00:12:01   They even showed us the bottle and we, you know,

00:12:02   you had like two of them, uh, at like $20 a pour, which was unbelievable.

00:12:07   Um, uh, but anyway, I think the difference for anybody who cares is that the,

00:12:14   the 23 is a little bit, I don't know, a little bit nuttier and a little bit

00:12:20   spicier. I don't know. It definitely,

00:12:22   it's almost a little bit less like what I've associated with regular pappies.

00:12:27   Like, whereas the 20 is that smoother,

00:12:30   wow, that's definitely,

00:12:32   it was like the platonic ideal of Pappy.

00:12:35   - Which one is like the, you know,

00:12:40   I wouldn't say the most common,

00:12:41   but the one that's kind of associated the most

00:12:43   with being the good one?

00:12:44   Is it the 20 or the 23?

00:12:46   - I don't know.

00:12:48   I guess the 20 and the 23 are both fairly rare.

00:12:50   I've almost never seen them.

00:12:52   It used to be not that hard to find them.

00:12:54   like what was that what's that shithole bar in San Francisco oh the tempest no

00:13:01   not that one a little bit step up except the bathroom I don't know Jesus I forget

00:13:13   the name of it but it's like across the street from the palace hotel I always

00:13:17   forget the name but anyway they used to just have it I mean you know and you

00:13:23   know like 16 17 dollars a pour then you know they ran out the park 55 hotel bar

00:13:28   used to have the 12-year just sitting there and you could get it and you know

00:13:32   wasn't exorbitantly priced back in the old days I think the 12-year was the one

00:13:37   that I used to see the most often like not quite the youngest but not not aged

00:13:41   all that much I'm gonna keep an eye out for it sort of ties into CES - I remember

00:13:52   the because I go to Vegas a couple times a year the the Wynn Hotel and casino used to

00:13:58   have pappies on the list you know and again very you know it's you know it's a the Vegas

00:14:05   strip and everything's a little bit expensive and the Wynn and Encore is you know supposed

00:14:08   to be the the best place on the strip so everything's you know even more expensive but like totally

00:14:14   reasonable it was you know like a typical pour of a good bourbon that Wynn or Encore

00:14:18   is like I don't know 12 13 14 dollars and they used to have pappies for like 16. It's crazy and

00:14:24   of course not anymore it's not even listed which brings us you gotta be in the uh the the big roller

00:14:31   or the yeah I'll bet if you get up to like the horses back there right the sky casino yeah

00:14:37   there's a button in the in the win and encore did we go in there you know I was there for opening

00:14:42   weekend and I haven't been there since I haven't been to Vegas in almost 10 years which is kind of

00:14:47   - It's kind of embarrassing.

00:14:48   - Yeah, that's a long time.

00:14:50   Yeah, you go in the elevator

00:14:55   and there's a button that says Sky Casino.

00:14:57   It's like the top floor.

00:14:58   And of course you can't press it.

00:14:59   You have to have like a special card to get in.

00:15:02   So I asked somebody at the hotel once,

00:15:04   I was like, what the hell's the Sky Casino?

00:15:06   And they're like, oh, you got, you don't,

00:15:07   that's like, it's like people with like $100,000 credit.

00:15:11   - Yeah, block, lot.

00:15:12   - Right.

00:15:13   - Yeah.

00:15:15   It's like there's usually like a high limit,

00:15:18   most casinos have like a high limit area

00:15:20   where it's a lot of baccarat and blackjack tables

00:15:23   that start at like $100 minimum, maybe even higher

00:15:28   on the weekend.

00:15:29   It's like for the people who like that high limit lounge

00:15:31   is nowhere near high limit enough.

00:15:33   - Yeah, did you ever read that book,

00:15:35   oh, it's probably 10 years old now,

00:15:37   by a Wall Street Journal writer

00:15:39   who got I think a $40,000 advance

00:15:43   and the book was that he was gambling his advance away

00:15:46   in Vegas?

00:15:47   - No, I don't think so.

00:15:48   - Oh yeah, it was good.

00:15:49   I mean, especially for, you know,

00:15:51   then I had probably just turned 21,

00:15:53   so it was very exciting.

00:15:54   I was like, oh, this is the gambling

00:15:57   we can't afford to do back here.

00:15:59   - Was he like had a gambling problem,

00:16:03   or that was the premise, like he--

00:16:05   - That was the premise of the book.

00:16:06   - Right, like--

00:16:07   - So he's gonna take his advance,

00:16:08   gamble it, and then write about what happened.

00:16:11   - Huh.

00:16:12   and the kind of treatment he got and stuff like that.

00:16:14   - Yeah, and all the money he won and lost and won

00:16:17   and kind of interspersed with stories

00:16:20   about famous Vegas people and personalities.

00:16:23   - And he was a Wall Street Journal reporter?

00:16:26   - I think that was what the cover said.

00:16:28   You know, I don't know, could it just be a freelancer

00:16:30   or something, but yeah, something like that.

00:16:32   - We gotta find it, I'll put it in the show notes.

00:16:33   - Yeah, it was good.

00:16:35   - 40K?

00:16:36   - Yeah, something like that.

00:16:38   I'll find it, I'll send it to you.

00:16:40   - All right, that'd be great.

00:16:41   - Yeah, it was fun.

00:16:43   - Yeah, that would probably be a great way to do it.

00:16:45   And you might go further than you think with that.

00:16:48   I don't know.

00:16:49   - I forgot how long, he stayed there

00:16:52   until I think he got sick of it.

00:16:54   And then he still had some money or something,

00:16:56   and then he came back again and lost all of it maybe.

00:16:59   I don't remember.

00:17:00   I don't wanna spoil too much of it,

00:17:02   but something like that.

00:17:04   - Yeah, that's crazy.

00:17:06   Which brings us, of course, to CES.

00:17:08   - Yeah.

00:17:09   has now become an annual tradition which is after CES. I have you on the show and we talk

00:17:16   about CES even though neither of us went or has ever gone.

00:17:19   Dave Asprey I've ever been.

00:17:20   Dave Asprey I've ever been.

00:17:21   Dave Asprey And I think last year, I actually re-listened

00:17:23   to it yesterday. I think we pledged to go this year so we can screw that up.

00:17:28   Dave Asprey Do you know what the funny part is? The funny

00:17:30   part is I asked you to be on the show this week because I thought, you know, I know you

00:17:33   weren't there. And, you know, I, for every reason that I asked you last year, it was

00:17:40   the same reason I thought you'd be a good guy to, you know, to talk about it, you know,

00:17:44   CES from afar this year. And then after I DM'd you and said, "Hey, can you, you know,

00:17:48   have time to do the show this week?" As soon as I hit send, I was like, "Hey, wait a minute,

00:17:52   deja vu. Didn't I do this last year?" And I quickly, I was like, "Oh, yeah." And then

00:17:55   I remembered that we agreed to go.

00:17:58   Yeah. And actually this year, even more than last year, I'm kind of mad that I didn't go

00:18:03   because everyone, you know, I don't want to repeat everything I said last time, we can just link to

00:18:08   that show. But everyone I know who was there for the right reasons seem to have a lot of fun.

00:18:15   Yeah, I totally agree. I, I, and again, we could just maybe we could just splice in all the audio

00:18:20   from last year. But no, I had that same feeling where like at the beginning, like, at the start of

00:18:28   of the... it seems like like if you go to cover the show in any sense whether

00:18:32   you're there to actually do like a hundred posts a week like The Verge or

00:18:36   Engadget or even if you're gonna take a saner more filtered approach you know

00:18:43   and and do a lot of the filtering before you present it to your reader like I

00:18:48   don't know like Pogue's new site or something like that or like my favorite

00:18:52   the Wirecutter who did one post for all of CES which is... I just I love it. It's so

00:18:57   awesome. They took like the most insane thing with 5000 vendors. It did one post, which

00:19:02   is so great. But even so it seems like you go there, you try to get there by Sunday.

00:19:08   Even though the show doesn't officially start till Tuesday, it seems like Sunday night,

00:19:11   the pre show stuff starts Monday, there's a lot of announcements. And then like Tuesday,

00:19:17   Wednesday, Thursday are like the main show days.

00:19:20   And I think the main like, you're already you're already sweaty. So that's when you

00:19:24   you just start drinking and gambling and whatever.

00:19:28   In preparation, I watched a bunch of The Verge videos

00:19:36   and looked at some of those,

00:19:38   every year there's the article of the

00:19:41   10 most ridiculous things that we saw at CES

00:19:44   and that kind of stuff.

00:19:45   The kind of comparison that really sprung to mind

00:19:50   is another thing that I've of course never been to,

00:19:54   Burning Man, it's just like the same,

00:19:57   just a sea, like an endless sea of ridiculous nonsense

00:20:02   and a lot of garbage and people smell bad.

00:20:05   But if you're there for the right reasons,

00:20:07   it can be really fun.

00:20:09   - Yeah, I think the difference between Burning Man

00:20:12   and CES for me, and in some way,

00:20:15   like let's say daytime hours, both of them,

00:20:17   there's a sort of, I'd like to see it at least once.

00:20:20   But then in Burning Man at night,

00:20:22   you have to sleep in a dirty tent

00:20:24   Whereas at CES, you can sleep in a nice hotel.

00:20:28   - Totally.

00:20:30   - Which is a real big deal for me.

00:20:31   Sleeping in a tent.

00:20:32   I'm kinda hoping I go from here till a long, happy life

00:20:37   and eventual death with never having slept in a tent again.

00:20:41   - Okay.

00:20:45   - So I don't know about Burning Man for me.

00:20:47   Vegas to me is like Burning Man with a nice room.

00:20:51   - Yeah.

00:20:54   Just any of those pictures,

00:20:57   there can be thousands of people in the field of view.

00:21:00   It seems just unbelievable.

00:21:02   And of course a lot of them are there to do actual work.

00:21:08   Like there have been some pretty good serious stories

00:21:11   about people who are there for actual job functions.

00:21:15   And one of the things that seemed ridiculous to me

00:21:18   at first about this year was like,

00:21:20   "Oh, Marissa Mayer's giving the keynote.

00:21:22   "What the hell?"

00:21:23   But then I read an article about how,

00:21:27   as digital media has become so much a part

00:21:31   of the consumer electronics industry,

00:21:33   huge ad deals are happening out there.

00:21:36   And so you see, oh, there's some very strange vines of,

00:21:40   who's that guy, David Blaine doing magic tricks

00:21:45   in front of Dick Costolo from Twitter.

00:21:47   It's just, did you see that?

00:21:49   It was crazy.

00:21:51   And yeah, and I'm sure Marissa Mayer and David Pogue

00:21:54   went from the keynote straight into a meeting

00:21:56   with Samsung or something and said,

00:21:59   "Hey, write us a billion dollar check."

00:22:01   So people are doing work out there too,

00:22:06   but also just insanity too.

00:22:11   - Yeah.

00:22:12   It does seem like a lot of the consensus reporting

00:22:16   I've seen from CES this year is that the craziness

00:22:18   was dialed down a lot.

00:22:20   not in terms of like the size and scope of the thing but the just like the the

00:22:30   stupid crazy I don't even understand what's going on here sort of yeah no

00:22:36   vaguely racist right acrobatic stuff or the whole and I saw a couple people

00:22:42   mentioned that booth babes seem to be on the decline hmm maybe well they probably

00:22:47   I listened to our show from last year and got some sense about it.

00:22:52   One of the things I was thinking about is, wouldn't it be funny if this was the year

00:22:56   that Apple actually had a giant booth and just didn't tell anyone?

00:23:04   We kept the Beyonce album a secret.

00:23:06   Let's have a huge CES booth this year, too.

00:23:10   I just remember every year someone would report some rumor like, "Oh, Apple to give CES

00:23:17   keynote and of course not you know well and it was rampant after they pulled out

00:23:21   of Mac world right I mean it wasn't even just for the next year although that was

00:23:27   one year and where it was at a fever pitch but even the next year there was a

00:23:31   lot of rumor reporting that Apple was going to do a keynote and big exhibited

00:23:36   CES and it's like no you know yeah no way they were gonna do that the guy

00:23:42   from Nvidia has to outbid them.

00:23:45   - Right.

00:23:45   I did think one of the big stories,

00:23:50   and I don't know, maybe the sample size is too small

00:23:54   to really draw a conclusion.

00:23:57   But Apple, of course, wasn't there officially,

00:24:00   which is not to say that it weren't Apple employees there.

00:24:04   There were, there always are,

00:24:05   to talk to component makers and stuff like that.

00:24:10   I saw one mentioned in an article, Apple retail buyers, you know, looking at, at stuff to

00:24:17   sell in the stores.

00:24:19   Yeah, exactly.

00:24:21   And I'm sure that there are engineers there to just, you know, to see because it's the

00:24:25   one thing that something like CES does is it gets the entire industry all together.

00:24:30   And you can see stuff in person.

00:24:31   And it's, you know, you know, there's, there's reasons to be in person, you know, the behind

00:24:37   the scene stuff is as important as the show floor maybe more important but also

00:24:43   Microsoft was not there even though they you know for years that was CES was sort

00:24:48   of their Mac World Expo that was you know they were the keynote address the

00:24:52   kickoff keynote for I don't know 10-15 years in a row dating all the way back

00:24:56   to the Bill Gates era and then all the way through most of the Steve Ballmer

00:25:00   era but they you know not only have dropped out of the keynote they had no

00:25:03   show floor presence at all. Nor did Google. And just to throw in one more, nor did Amazon. Now

00:25:12   Amazon never has either. But they do make consumer electronics, the Kindle line is, I think it's

00:25:20   impossible to dismiss. I mean, it's, you know, the market share stuff I've seen after Christmas for

00:25:26   tablet usage clearly puts the Kindles in second a very strong second place in the

00:25:33   US but they you know we're not there either and the thing that struck me

00:25:38   about all four of those companies is that they're US companies and I think

00:25:41   that you know unless I'm overlooking somebody I mean tell me if I am there

00:25:45   are the four big US consumer electronic companies Apple, Google, Microsoft and

00:25:55   Amazon and none of them were at CES.

00:25:58   It seems like it's almost, you know,

00:26:01   like the big exhibits are all from the Asian companies.

00:26:06   - Right, Sony and Samsung.

00:26:09   - Right.

00:26:10   - Companies like LG.

00:26:11   - Right.

00:26:12   - Yeah, it's interesting.

00:26:14   - And I don't know if there's--

00:26:15   - I wonder why that is.

00:26:17   - Yeah, and I don't know if it's, like I said,

00:26:19   there's only four of them and they're all uniquely

00:26:23   their own company, right?

00:26:26   I mean, Apple's not there just because

00:26:28   Apple's an American company.

00:26:29   I mean, Apple is just Apple and they wanna be left alone

00:26:32   until they have their things to announce.

00:26:35   - Amazon's kinda like that too.

00:26:37   - Yeah.

00:26:38   - Almost even more secretive than Apple in many ways.

00:26:41   - Yeah, definitely.

00:26:43   Google though, I think it's a little,

00:26:46   it seems like something they might do,

00:26:48   have a big haul and either just to promote

00:26:52   like Nexus line of stuff or you know or even have like a Kumbaya you know look at all you

00:26:59   know have every Amazon you know major Android phone on display at once and just you know.

00:27:04   Which they did for at least both years that I was at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona

00:27:11   they had it the biggest most popular booth with you know smoothie people making smoothies

00:27:16   and gigantic Android phones and they brought out a bunch of Android developers and gave

00:27:22   them little booths and that kind of stuff. Right and maybe they'll do that

00:27:25   again at Mobile World Congress this year right because that's... I don't know

00:27:30   if they did it last year. I wasn't there last year. But you know in theory I think

00:27:35   of all those companies the two that would be least surprising if they did

00:27:40   have a big CES presence would be Microsoft and Google. Well especially

00:27:43   Microsoft the new Xbox just came out. Right and Sony was gonna be there. They're

00:27:48   Buying Nokia, right?

00:27:50   Right.

00:27:50   And maybe just the fact that they are in the process of trying to buy Nokia

00:27:55   and the whole CEO turnover thing kept them out.

00:27:59   But that seems weird.

00:28:02   And I also think that they really want Windows 8 on tablets to gain traction.

00:28:11   I think they will do anything they could.

00:28:13   I think I think you know, I don't know is it more important than the phone?

00:28:19   I don't know but both are clearly important. I mean, I think everybody agrees that that the root cause of Microsoft's

00:28:26   Decline in recent years is that they have no traction in either the phone or tablet markets

00:28:34   And you know, I almost hesitate to say that one's more important than the other because I think that they sort of go hand-in-hand

00:28:43   And even if Office and not Window is the path forward,

00:28:48   or even the cloud services or whatever,

00:28:52   that still needs, that's more important for the tablets,

00:28:56   'cause Office is not gonna do awesome on Android

00:29:00   or something like that.

00:29:01   - Right.

00:29:01   You know what, I'm gonna take it back,

00:29:02   and I'm gonna say tablets are more important

00:29:04   to Microsoft than phones, because, for two reasons.

00:29:09   for one, their phones are already a two horse race with iOS and Android where iOS has a

00:29:18   stronger position at the top end of the market and Android has a stronger position as the

00:29:24   majority market share leader, right? And has the OEM market sewn up. Whereas tablets, I

00:29:33   I feel like, alright, iPad is clearly in first place,

00:29:37   way stronger in first place than you could argue

00:29:41   anybody has in anything other than Windows

00:29:43   and PC market share.

00:29:45   And second place is up for grabs.

00:29:49   And I think inevitably there should be

00:29:53   some kind of strong second place.

00:29:55   Even if it's really just ends up being the Mac,

00:30:01   what the Mac was to Windows at the height of the PC era,

00:30:05   somebody's gonna have an alternative to the iPad.

00:30:07   And, you know, at least, I feel like Microsoft

00:30:11   has a better chance of making Windows and Windows tablets

00:30:14   be that than they do of putting a serious dent

00:30:17   into either iOS or Android on phones.

00:30:20   So I don't know.

00:30:21   And I also think it's a little bit more what, you know,

00:30:24   shoring up what they're already good at.

00:30:26   Like I feel like tablet sales are coming at the expense

00:30:29   mainly of Windows laptop sales.

00:30:33   - Yeah, so that adds extra urgency.

00:30:36   And Microsoft kind of started the whole tablets at CES thing.

00:30:40   I mean, if you remember, what was it,

00:30:42   two weeks or something before Apple,

00:30:45   you know, unveiled the iPhone, iPad,

00:30:50   Ballmer had that weird HP Slate thing at CES.

00:30:53   - Right, we call them Slates, right?

00:30:55   - Yeah.

00:30:55   I kind of missed the Ballmer keynote at CES.

00:30:59   That was like something to look forward to.

00:31:02   - I, you know, and I'll say it,

00:31:04   I regret that I never went during that era to see one.

00:31:06   - Yeah, that's like the bulls with Jordan, you know?

00:31:10   Now it's too late. - It's too late.

00:31:12   All right, let me take a break

00:31:12   and we'll get back to that CES talk.

00:31:16   But first, let me take a break

00:31:17   and tell you about our first sponsor.

00:31:19   So happy to have him back on the show.

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00:31:56   I mean it gets to me and they always send out an email when it goes out and it gets to me even

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00:33:32   you're gonna love it but if you doubt me at all get the free sample try it

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00:33:39   the subscription because it's so good go to talks my thanks to them for

00:33:43   sponsoring the show again. See the other thing Tonks did, Dan? What's that? They

00:33:48   have a new promotion where you can go to their website, I forget the URL, but if

00:33:51   you go to Tonks.org and look for it, I'm sure you'll find it, but they have a... you

00:33:56   can use Starbucks gift cards. You type in the number and the code and put it into

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00:34:42   It's genius. Absolutely genius. I love it. So they did a thing where they send it

00:34:47   out I guess because they've sponsored my show before they sent me a Christmas

00:34:51   card a holiday card that included a Starbucks a gift card and there was no

00:34:57   explanation I thought it was just sort of a gag I tweeted it and I said it was

00:35:00   like the best gag gift I got but now knowing that they have this promotion I

00:35:04   realize it wasn't really a gag it was sort of a setup for this but anyway

00:35:08   talks is so great I'm drinking it literally right now yeah I think

00:35:15   Microsoft should add a big booth yeah I think for tablets honestly I think for

00:35:21   phones because honestly I mean Nokia to me it they're making to me the second

00:35:28   best I don't know about the software but they're making to me the second most

00:35:31   interesting phone hardware today but they're still flailing they're not

00:35:38   really gaining traction I don't know that they're sinking but they're not

00:35:41   going to you know and if it's worth Microsoft's money to buy Nokia or at

00:35:45   least their handset division I don't know it just seems to me like they ought

00:35:49   to start ought to keep pumping them into the consciousness you know keep the per

00:35:54   keep them visible I don't know trade shows are obviously very expensive

00:35:59   expensive, especially I don't even I can't even imagine what it costs to have one of

00:36:04   those flagship exhibits at like a CES or a big show like that. It means it's I'm sure

00:36:10   it's millions of dollars. Yeah, it's got to be, you know, maybe 10 million or something.

00:36:14   I don't know. Right. But you're talking about a company that's spending billions right with

00:36:19   a B to buy Nokia, right? And you know, just in general, I mean, I'm on marketing and all

00:36:24   that stuff and the cost of losing the windows, you know, everything they have is everything.

00:36:32   It's hundreds of billions of dollars.

00:36:38   I just can't help but think maybe the CEO turnover is why they didn't do it just to

00:36:43   keep the distractions away.

00:36:47   But I don't know.

00:36:48   It's maybe a sign of paralysis.

00:36:51   with the new Xbox out and trying to build a developer ecosystem around that and be part

00:36:57   of all the 4K TVs that are out.

00:37:01   How cool would it have been to be able to play a couple Xbox games on one of those things?

00:37:07   There was one article I think also on the verge about how there's basically no 4K content

00:37:13   to show off except Netflix had some so they were being demoed on all the new TVs which

00:37:19   is smart.

00:37:20   Yeah, Netflix with a big presence without having a big or maybe even any exhibit space themselves.

00:37:27   Reed Hastings was just he just was at every single event for anybody related to TV.

00:37:36   And it seems like like I would have to say if not the single biggest one of the big you know count

00:37:45   them on one hand themes of this year's CES was 4k TV sets definitely and like you said the big

00:37:52   question is well what do you well I've actually I think there's two big questions for 4k TV sets

00:37:58   one though first one is where are you going to get 4k content because there's zero point to it

00:38:02   without 4k content and so far the answer like you said is Netflix but even there they can't just

00:38:10   magically make stuff that wasn't shot 4k be 4k but I know that they're going to

00:38:17   you know the one thing they can control are their own shows and they have in a

00:38:20   house of cards which they're going to have available in 4k yeah we guess the

00:38:26   new season which starts next month yeah a couple few weeks from now yeah I mean

00:38:33   that's and that's one of the beauties of vertical integration have have control

00:38:39   - I'm gonna roll over that sort of stuff.

00:38:41   4K is interesting to me.

00:38:43   I'm kind of impressed by how inexpensive

00:38:47   some of the supposed prices are gonna be for those things.

00:38:51   I'm very frightened as to how much worse

00:38:53   the wire is gonna look than it already does now.

00:38:57   I think I'll have to rewatch it once more

00:39:00   before I upgrade TVs or something like that.

00:39:03   - I guess it depends what it was shot on.

00:39:06   Maybe the wire is sold.

00:39:07   I would--

00:39:09   - The wire was shot in, I looked it up this morning,

00:39:11   it was shot in SD four by three.

00:39:14   There will never be an HD remastering.

00:39:19   - Wow, but didn't they shoot on film?

00:39:22   Couldn't they--

00:39:23   - This I don't know.

00:39:24   Whatever article I read.

00:39:27   - That there's no chance to get that,

00:39:29   to go back and turn that back into HD.

00:39:32   - I don't think so.

00:39:34   'Cause a lot of the shows during that period,

00:39:38   like the first few seasons were four by three

00:39:41   and then something like Entourage or something like that.

00:39:44   I think even The Sopranos,

00:39:45   like the last several seasons were in HD.

00:39:48   And there was a shift kind of halfway through.

00:39:52   But the Wire, everything was always SD.

00:39:56   - Four three. - Four three.

00:39:58   Major disappointment.

00:40:01   - Yeah, and it was sort of right at the tail end of that.

00:40:04   Whereas if you go back a little further,

00:40:06   and you know, like one of my favorite shows from the 90s

00:40:09   was NYPD Blue.

00:40:10   - Oh yeah.

00:40:12   - Great show, especially the first few seasons.

00:40:14   But it doesn't break your heart

00:40:18   that it's four to three standard definition.

00:40:22   'Cause it was the 90s, what do you expect?

00:40:23   Whereas The Wire, it just feels like,

00:40:26   was just a wee bit, a few years too early.

00:40:29   Here's the thing.

00:40:33   that the bigger problem facing 4k is how many people sit have a couch far enough

00:40:39   away from their TV and have room for a big enough TV where 4k actually looks

00:40:44   better right and you get into these arguments you know like the apples

00:40:48   definitions of a retina display of you know it's distance from the screen you

00:40:54   know and some math about the pixel size but there is a certain point where you

00:40:59   can't discern it right and when you went from an old four three standard def

00:41:05   glass picture tube TV to a flat screen you know plasma or LCD high def screen

00:41:13   it you know you unless you had some kind of vision impairment or didn't have your

00:41:17   glasses on it everybody had the same reaction which is wow this looks way

00:41:23   better I don't know that when I first got a HD I don't know if I've talked

00:41:27   about in this show but I even would watch skiing because it looked so good.

00:41:31   Right. It's like this is crazy. Yeah I remember stuff like golf and tennis

00:41:37   with these little tiny balls and it's like all of a sudden. Hockey. Yeah hockey was a big

00:41:41   one. Hockey I think, god hockey was like unwatchable on standard def. I never

00:41:45   understood how people could watch hockey. You couldn't see. Well unless you had Fox

00:41:48   tracks glowing. Right which was awful. I don't know that 4k for most people is

00:41:57   going to look better and I don't you know I think that's the problem the TV

00:42:01   industry TV set industry has is everybody spent a lot of money to upgrade

00:42:05   and go to high def flat panel displays and an awful lot of money was spent in

00:42:12   what the last 15 years 10 15 years I got mine nine years ago yeah I think we

00:42:20   bought ours around the same time I don't know well no not that long I think I got

00:42:24   I got mine in like 2006.

00:42:26   You know, and--

00:42:28   - Yeah, that was right as they were getting cheaper.

00:42:30   - A lot of people spent a lot of money,

00:42:32   and I still love my 2006 TV.

00:42:35   I mean, I really think it looks great.

00:42:39   - Yes, yeah, I think it's gonna be one of those things

00:42:43   where it will just gradually replace the HD components,

00:42:47   and if you are buying a mid-range or high-end TV,

00:42:52   it will be 4K.

00:42:53   If you're not, it'll probably be 1080p.

00:42:56   The way today, you still buy a 1080i or 720p TV

00:43:01   if you wanna spend 300 bucks,

00:43:03   and if you wanna spend 700, 800 bucks, you get 1080p.

00:43:06   - I just don't know that it's going to really help

00:43:10   the industry spur sales.

00:43:13   I am glad, though.

00:43:14   I feel like the good-- - I don't think it will.

00:43:16   - The good news to me, as someone who really despises 3D,

00:43:20   is that the whole 3D thing,

00:43:22   which is like what the last two years,

00:43:23   they were pushing 3D TV sets.

00:43:26   And I just, oh man, if I could have just paid a genie

00:43:31   to give me a wish and hope that a technology fails,

00:43:34   it would be 3D TVs.

00:43:36   'Cause I can't even imagine the world where

00:43:39   movies are all 3D.

00:43:42   Whether you need glasses or not,

00:43:44   3D really gets to me every time I see it.

00:43:46   - Aren't you kind of happy though

00:43:47   that the good guys won on that one?

00:43:49   - Yeah, I am glad.

00:43:50   - You could see a technology lose

00:43:52   over the course of a few years and feel good about that.

00:43:56   - Yeah, I feel like common sense prevailed.

00:43:58   - Yeah.

00:43:59   - Like no, we don't want it.

00:44:00   We certainly don't want to wear frickin' goggles

00:44:02   and stuff like that.

00:44:03   And I don't, you know, I think it was not because 3D

00:44:06   was a good idea, it was because the TV manufacturers

00:44:09   wanted to sell new TVs to people who already bought

00:44:11   flat panel TVs, and so it didn't work.

00:44:14   - Or wanted to upsell the 3D TVs as being

00:44:19   a significantly more expensive product

00:44:22   than the flat panel.

00:44:23   - Right, as opposed to 4K, which I can in theory get behind

00:44:27   because more pixels to me is always better.

00:44:29   And so it's definitely, you know,

00:44:31   I'm not, again, I'm not 100% sold it's gonna take off

00:44:34   because I don't know that people are gonna be able

00:44:35   to discern the difference unless they can get

00:44:38   a big enough, you know, 60, 70 inch screen.

00:44:41   - Yeah, I don't know about your household,

00:44:43   but I still come home sometimes and see that the SD version

00:44:47   of a channel is being watched.

00:44:49   - Right.

00:44:50   No one could tell the difference.

00:44:54   I tweeted about it over the Christmas break, but my wife had a day where she'd be like,

00:44:58   "Jonas was playing Minecraft and I was up 'working' in the office and she just had a

00:45:03   relaxing day watching movies."

00:45:05   It was three or four of her favorite movies that nobody else likes came on, like Houseguest.

00:45:14   She loves Houseguest.

00:45:15   Any time Houseguest comes on, she watches.

00:45:17   It's a terrible movie.

00:45:19   God bless Phil Hartman.

00:45:20   I wish we still had him but I mean, you know

00:45:22   Yeah, that that movie is rough

00:45:25   But and I'd you know, I'd come down and get coffee and stuff and every everything she was watching all day long was standard deaf

00:45:32   It had drove me nuts

00:45:34   Maybe something like that is is better. I don't know I would pay more money and this is stupid because it doesn't make any sense

00:45:41   I would pay more money to Comcast to just take all the standard channels out of our lineup

00:45:47   Just get them off so that there's nothing we can't watch standard stuff

00:45:51   I think if you dig deep enough in the settings on your cable box, you can override the SD

00:45:58   Somehow, I don't know. I'm not sure I haven't tried that yet

00:46:02   Well, another thing I'm wondering about is is the bandwidth stuff. I mean if if 4k video is

00:46:09   You know two to four times more

00:46:13   bandwidth a

00:46:15   You know, is it gonna stream?

00:46:17   Chapelle II is it is it gonna be watchable and B at what point does Time Warner Cable or

00:46:23   Comcast or whoever say okay. Well you hit your 200 gigs limit now now you're done, right?

00:46:30   We're gonna start charging you for it or something like that, right?

00:46:33   Because they're not really all that much in favor of you watching TV over IP

00:46:37   Exactly by which I mean not in favor at all

00:46:40   right

00:46:43   Yeah, that's a good question. Wireless is not going to fix that. No, definitely not.

00:46:48   Especially now with... I saw a couple of reports this week that it, with

00:46:54   compression, and I don't know if they're using H.265 or what the Kodak is,

00:47:01   but that they've, I think like in a lot of the Netflix stuff, because Netflix

00:47:06   actually is putting the rubber to the road and doing it, that it's about 15

00:47:11   15 megabits a second? Something like that is what it requires. Now I only, I

00:47:16   mean like when I run speed tests when I'm in when my stuff's working well I

00:47:20   only get about 20, 21, 22 down. Yeah same. So and I still can't load YouTube videos

00:47:27   half the time. Yeah 15 is under that but it it's so much so close to it though

00:47:32   that it it almost requires optimal you know optimal you know good weather and

00:47:38   just a perfect, you know, hope that my neighbors

00:47:40   aren't doing it too.

00:47:42   - Yeah, which is why Netflix actually is,

00:47:45   at least publicly, one of the fiercest companies

00:47:50   in terms of publicly praising and rating

00:47:54   and ranking ISPs in terms of their quality,

00:47:58   which I find kind of interesting,

00:47:59   and lobbying for things like net neutrality

00:48:03   and that sort of stuff.

00:48:05   - Yeah.

00:48:06   Let me take a break here and do the second sponsor.

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00:50:10   the talk show. Everybody, long time listeners of the show know how much support they've

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00:50:31   here so my thanks to them where were we what were we talking about as 4k

00:50:41   bandwidth 4k bandwidth yeah and so apples you know obviously we said not at

00:50:47   the show, much, much rumored to be possibly working

00:50:52   on some kind of new TV thing, whether it is a full TV set

00:50:56   or a big step forward in Apple TV.

00:50:59   I wonder how 4K, what their stance on that is.

00:51:06   I know there's a lot of people who think,

00:51:07   well that's what, people who, the Gene Munsters of the world

00:51:10   who think that, you know.

00:51:13   - Right, that's what Apple's been waiting for.

00:51:15   - Right, been waiting for 4K.

00:51:17   I don't know about that.

00:51:18   I don't know about that at all.

00:51:20   - Yeah, I would say no.

00:51:23   I mean, I guess, you know, personally,

00:51:27   I have kind of been waiting to upgrade my TV

00:51:30   in case Apple were to have come out with one by now.

00:51:34   You know, when it breaks,

00:51:36   I'm gonna replace it with whatever's out there.

00:51:38   But I could see a lot of people buying an Apple TV

00:51:43   because it came out.

00:51:46   and therefore, if it were 4K,

00:51:48   that's how they would justify getting a 4K TV.

00:51:52   But I think that that's not what's been holding them back.

00:51:55   - No, and I also wonder,

00:51:57   because Apple controls a lot of the content

00:51:59   that comes to Apple TV,

00:52:00   because they have, they sell and rent movies and TV shows.

00:52:04   But I honestly wonder how much control they have

00:52:09   over getting that stuff in 4K format.

00:52:13   I don't think it's any.

00:52:15   It's not like they've got the original negatives

00:52:18   for the films and can scan them at 4K resolution.

00:52:21   You know, it's up to the studios to provide, you know, the,

00:52:25   you know, I don't know that just because, you know,

00:52:30   so much of Apple TV content comes from iTunes.

00:52:33   I don't know that that gives Apple much control

00:52:36   over getting the iTunes library into 4K.

00:52:40   I don't know though, maybe I'm wrong.

00:52:41   - Yeah, and how did it work with HD?

00:52:43   Didn't it start with movies or TV shows?

00:52:47   I don't remember.

00:52:48   - I don't know that the, you know, it was,

00:52:50   but it wasn't all at once.

00:52:51   They couldn't just flip a switch.

00:52:52   - No, it was like one by one, too.

00:52:54   Yeah, well, obviously they don't make the content,

00:52:58   so they can't just go out on their own and do it.

00:53:01   And it seems like another opportunity for the studios

00:53:05   to try to get something out of Apple

00:53:07   before they hand over even higher res stuff.

00:53:12   especially with that whole ultraviolet thing they have on their own.

00:53:17   So yeah, and Apple, you know, big picture is often, they'll often make great leaps forward

00:53:25   with things like being like the retina display on the iPhone 4 in 2010 was a huge leap forward

00:53:34   in resolution over every other phone on the market. You know, literally double the the resolution,

00:53:40   you know in one dimension as the previous generation of iPhones and you

00:53:45   know 300 and some DPI instead of a hundred and some DPI but then ever since

00:53:51   they've let it go and now it went from you know and now there's other competing

00:53:56   phones you know from on the Android side that have four hundred and some pixels

00:54:00   per inch and I feel like with you know with Apple it's like they'll make a big

00:54:07   leap forward if they think there's a practical reason for it right and the

00:54:10   original iPhone going retina was so clearly oh man this looks so much better especially you know

00:54:16   everything looked better whereas I feel like going from 300 and some to 400 some DPI on a phone is

00:54:24   you're just wasting battery you know that it's not worth you with a horrible Android UI right yeah

00:54:31   it's like you know see those wonderful Roboto files rendered in all their glory like and I

00:54:39   almost think that from an Apple perspective that 1080p is that sweet spot

00:54:45   of looks really good in most typical household viewing scenarios you know in

00:54:56   terms of screen size versus distance from screen well this was actually I

00:55:04   still think it from this precedent for this - I actually wrote a story about

00:55:09   about this for Forbes in 2006 or 2007 when at when iTunes first started selling movies

00:55:19   and Amazon first started selling movies.

00:55:21   They were both around the same time and what Amazon did is sold you a made you download

00:55:31   I want to say two copies of the movie.

00:55:35   One of them was a really big file and looked good on your computer and the other one was

00:55:42   a really small file.

00:55:43   Maybe it was Apple that did that.

00:55:45   Yeah, I think Apple did that.

00:55:46   I think that was Apple.

00:55:47   I seem to remember that.

00:55:49   Maybe Amazon had – I don't remember.

00:55:52   Anyway, all right.

00:55:53   Well, I'll define the article.

00:55:55   I think it was Apple.

00:55:58   Apple did do that too.

00:56:02   Yeah.

00:56:04   Anyway.

00:56:05   But it didn't make sense to have a big 720p or 1080p file to show on your standard def

00:56:13   screen.

00:56:14   It made no sense.

00:56:16   All right.

00:56:17   Here's the article.

00:56:18   Basically, Apple's total file size was smaller than Amazon's.

00:56:23   And the question I was writing about was whether – yeah, Amazon had two files, a large version

00:56:31   for your computer and TV and a smaller one for your like Rio MP3 player or something

00:56:36   like that.

00:56:39   For watching movies on your Galaxy Gear.

00:56:42   Yes, yeah exactly.

00:56:45   Yeah Amazon was doing 720 pixel with an Apple said DVD quality 640 pixels.

00:56:54   Anyway big picture, this is Apple saying we're okay not having the highest resolution possible

00:57:01   because there are better trade-offs,

00:57:03   like download speed that make this better.

00:57:06   So I can see the same thing happening here,

00:57:09   where they don't go with the most pixels possible on a TV,

00:57:14   but instead one that will kind of hit the sweet spot

00:57:19   in terms of bandwidth and content library

00:57:23   and all that sort of stuff.

00:57:24   I mean, how lame would it be if Apple shipped a 4K TV

00:57:28   and literally nothing was available in 4K,

00:57:31   like they wouldn't even do that.

00:57:34   Everything you have looks like shit on our new TV.

00:57:36   - Well, it would look like 1080p.

00:57:38   I don't think 1080p is gonna look worse on a 4K TV set.

00:57:41   - You don't think so?

00:57:42   - No, I don't think so.

00:57:43   I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

00:57:45   - Yeah, well, the way that non-retina apps

00:57:48   look terrible on a retina screen,

00:57:51   but maybe the difference is imperceptible

00:57:54   from six feet away or whatever.

00:57:56   right because if it's because I think it's more like with like the retina

00:58:02   MacBook Pros where you have those scaled sizes to simulate higher resolutions and

00:58:07   they still look fine yeah because you're still only you're talking about pixels

00:58:12   that are so small even at the simulated size right the simulated pixel is bigger

00:58:18   than the native pixel of the display but that simulated size is still so small

00:58:23   that you're it looks good your eyes whereas when you upscale a non retina

00:58:30   iPhone app on retina those non retina virtual pixels are big and you can see

00:58:39   them so I am nearly certain I mean and I'm sure otherwise from people out there

00:58:43   but I would bet that 1080p content looks like 1080p content on a 4k display yeah

00:58:49   Yeah, and things like...

00:58:51   No worse than it would on an equivalent size 1080p thing, unless you get real close, which

00:58:58   is, you know...

00:58:59   Right, which is not what happens for a TV.

00:59:02   For a monitor, that's a different story.

00:59:04   But what's the point of powering all those pixels and paying for all those pixels to

00:59:09   watch 1080p when you could have just spent less money on a 1080p native TV set?

00:59:15   Exactly.

00:59:16   Now there are things like if they have a gaming app store

00:59:21   with vector-based gaming artwork,

00:59:24   maybe that does look appreciably different on a 4K TV.

00:59:27   I don't know.

00:59:28   Well, I guess we'll have to go to CES next year.

00:59:32   - Yeah, I just don't think 4K is the factor.

00:59:35   - No, I don't think so.

00:59:37   You know, my thinking on this

00:59:39   and just from not having any real information

00:59:43   but just kind of reading stuff over the years

00:59:45   that Apple really wanted to have some sort of subscription service that was just dramatically

00:59:53   better and more interesting than a cable TV package and couldn't get the rights for that

01:00:00   and therefore kind of dropped the ball on a lot of other stuff.

01:00:04   I don't know if that's true or not, but that's the perception I have.

01:00:11   I wonder too how much of it is still fueled by what may well just be a throwaway line

01:00:18   in the Steve Jobs biography by Walter Isaacson that something about TV and Jobs said, "I've

01:00:26   cracked it." And that's it. Yeah. Who even knows what the hell that means? I'm still

01:00:40   half convinced at least if not 51% convinced that the Apple TV we have today is the that's

01:00:48   Apple's TV plans. And that you know, they'll just come out you know, the it's getting to

01:00:53   the point where it's overdue for a new version, but that it's just going to be another $99

01:00:58   box with maybe higher resolution and a better remote. I've said this so many times and I

01:01:02   still think it's the most likely scenario for how they go forward, that they just keep

01:01:06   selling $99 set top boxes.

01:01:08   - Yeah, and I'm sure, as a company that makes things

01:01:12   with screens, I'm sure they've tested out computers

01:01:16   in every screen size imaginable.

01:01:19   They already make 30-inch displays, well, they did.

01:01:24   So I'm sure they've tried out making a TV set

01:01:28   or something like that, but making that into a product

01:01:31   is a whole different story.

01:01:36   I love my Apple TV, though.

01:01:37   I find myself using it much more than even I did a year ago.

01:01:44   I really hope they do more with it.

01:01:47   It's one of those things where they add maybe one channel every few weeks so you don't notice

01:01:52   it.

01:01:53   But if you remember, even a year ago, they didn't even fill up the first screen.

01:01:57   And now there's a lot of stuff on there.

01:01:59   Most of it I'm not watching.

01:02:02   But that's great.

01:02:03   - It's been a pretty good year of adding content

01:02:04   to Apple TV, I really do.

01:02:06   - Yeah, I think it suggests that maybe they're starting to,

01:02:10   well, I had read, I think it was HBO,

01:02:14   had even admitted publicly

01:02:15   that they made their app themselves.

01:02:18   So it sounds like Apple has some sort of very simple toolkit

01:02:22   that they're letting other people use now

01:02:24   to make those channels.

01:02:25   - Right, yeah, that to me could be the,

01:02:31   my best guess for what he meant by I cracked it and it's you know just you

01:02:36   know maybe it's some kind of next-generation thing bluetooth for

01:02:39   the remotes and so that maybe you could even have like gaming remotes and a real

01:02:47   app store SDK and let people just you know put apps on their Apple TV the same

01:02:52   way they do their iPhone and iPad. But that would work with any TV.

01:02:59   A lot easier to distribute those tiny boxes than a massive, you know, I see whenever one

01:03:09   of my neighbors gets a TV, I see the massive cardboard box on the sidewalk.

01:03:15   The one TV set at CES this year that did get a little bit of my attention, stood out from

01:03:20   others was LG because they announced one that runs web OS which I had forgotten

01:03:27   I had forgotten that they'd purchased they like purchased web OS from I guess

01:03:34   HP what's what's the thinking behind that is it just that it's easy to write

01:03:40   apps for it because it's HTML and JavaScript I guess I don't know I mean

01:03:45   and it's obviously the original the you know the web OS as we knew it from the

01:03:50   the Palm Pre phone and the what was their tablet called the Playbook was a

01:03:57   you know iOS style glass touchscreen interface and obviously your TV set is

01:04:04   not a touchscreen but it seems like they kind of kept it you know so it's not

01:04:08   really web OS as we knew it but it's web OS based similar to how you know at a

01:04:13   low level technically Apple TV the one you buy today is running iOS a version

01:04:18   of iOS. It's just not, it's a totally different interface.

01:04:22   Yeah, I actually did a research report about the various development platforms for smart

01:04:29   TVs and it's horrible. It's way worse than Android. Almost every model year has a different

01:04:38   SDK and you have to test them like crazy. It takes months or even years to make it a

01:04:46   a smart TV app for a lot of manufacturers.

01:04:48   And they all have different SDKs,

01:04:50   and they're all using different technology

01:04:52   and chipsets and all this crap,

01:04:53   and it's a lot of low-level stuff.

01:04:55   So it's just a disaster.

01:04:56   So if WebOS is like, hey, just make HTML and JavaScript,

01:05:01   and you're all set, that's a huge advantage

01:05:05   over whatever Visio or Samsung has been forcing people to do.

01:05:10   - Yeah, and that could be a big advantage for Apple,

01:05:13   because apple not only has tons of developers now with iOS you know because obviously I

01:05:21   mean I think it would be almost shocking if the SDK were anything other than you know

01:05:25   objective C and the cocoa APIs you know but optimized for TV but they also it's not just

01:05:34   that they have developers but that they have I mean let's go all the way back to 1990 and

01:05:40   say you know 89 and say you know you know go back to next and say they've got

01:05:47   20 to 25 years of experience making a developer platform that evolves over

01:05:53   time so that it's not you know it is familiar that you you know for anybody

01:05:58   who's written an iOS app or a Mac app the presumed Apple TV SDK would be

01:06:02   pretty familiar and that as it evolves year over year over year it's not going

01:06:07   to break it year over year and that you're writing an app in 2014 and then in 2015 it's

01:06:14   going to be broken.

01:06:17   It would be stable, a stable platform that evolves over time, which I think is a big

01:06:22   difference compared to like what you're saying about the smart TVs on the market today.

01:06:27   Tom Bilyeu: Yeah.

01:06:31   Also a platform that has been smartly designed for the type of equipment it's going to run

01:06:37   on. Now, whereas even even the attempts to kind of shoehorn Android into a TV, you know,

01:06:44   I don't know how I don't know how well that's working.

01:06:47   Right. And it is the sort of thing where even if they come out with and I think, you know,

01:06:51   obviously, it would be the thing that would slow adoption the most is if if Apple's Apple

01:06:57   TV of the future is a whole TV set the whole thing at once you have to buy a new TV set,

01:07:03   it's all built in I think that would slow adoption because obviously the

01:07:07   price would be higher and it would rule out anybody who says well I just bought

01:07:11   a TV X number of years ago I'm not replacing it yet even for a cool one

01:07:15   from Apple even if Apple you know their market share was very low like two three

01:07:22   percent of the whole US TV market that whole two three percent would be on

01:07:27   their App Store and even at two three percent of all households clearly I

01:07:33   I think that would make it the most popular platform

01:07:36   for developers already, even with just 2, 3% market share

01:07:40   because the whole thing is so fractured.

01:07:42   - Especially if they made it open.

01:07:46   Like the trouble with stuff like the Xbox SDK

01:07:50   is that they're still very tightly controlling.

01:07:52   - Right.

01:07:54   Right, that's maybe my biggest--

01:07:55   - I also can't see that being the only way

01:07:58   to run Apple TV apps.

01:07:59   Like I could see that being the preferred way,

01:08:01   Like maybe the Apple TV has, you know,

01:08:05   you don't need to have some sort of other input

01:08:09   for the whatever remote control they have

01:08:11   or something like that.

01:08:12   But I can't see them forcing you to buy it,

01:08:16   a whole television to run.

01:08:18   - Yeah, I've thought the same thing too,

01:08:19   that even if they come out with a TV set,

01:08:21   they'd still have set top boxes

01:08:23   that you could put into other TV sets.

01:08:26   But then you get into questions of, you know, latency

01:08:29   And if you have apps that depend upon the lesser latency

01:08:34   of the native, you know, the whole shebang built

01:08:38   into the Apple one by itself,

01:08:39   how do they run on the one that's hooked up by HDMI

01:08:42   and has additional latency or something like that?

01:08:46   I don't know.

01:08:46   But yeah, I agree with you though.

01:08:49   I don't think that they would do it that way.

01:08:51   - Did you see any smartwatches you liked this week?

01:08:57   - No, not at all.

01:08:59   Although wearables totally seem to be the second big theme

01:09:02   of the show, especially, I think,

01:09:07   I mean it seemed to me from my,

01:09:09   the coverage I saw sitting at home, wrist wearables.

01:09:14   Some of them watches, some of them more like the,

01:09:17   maybe by quantity more of them more like a Nike Fuel band,

01:09:20   like a plain band around your wrist.

01:09:23   I got people upset, I guess,

01:09:27   when I called out the Pebble Steel as being ugly.

01:09:31   - It's horrible.

01:09:32   - Right, I don't know.

01:09:33   - It reminds me of like the old Casio watches

01:09:37   that my uncle Stash had in like the early 90s.

01:09:40   - Yeah, and you can still buy those at like American Apparel

01:09:43   and it's sort of like American Apparel style retro hip.

01:09:46   Like they'll also sell you a pair of like,

01:09:49   you know, like the eyeglasses my dad was wearing in 1982.

01:09:53   - Right.

01:09:54   The metal bar across the top.

01:09:56   But it's almost, to me, it's more almost like a knockoff of those Casios.

01:10:00   Just like the integration of the band to the watch face.

01:10:05   It just seems really, really clunkily done.

01:10:08   And I...

01:10:09   I like the first ones more.

01:10:12   I don't have one, but...

01:10:13   I do have one.

01:10:14   I have one.

01:10:15   So I do have some experience, you know, speaking of it.

01:10:18   But like I wrote on Daring Fireball, at least the other one, the original one, to me it's

01:10:23   true to itself.

01:10:24   Is it a beautiful watch?

01:10:25   No, but it's, to me, it's no uglier than any other digital watch.

01:10:31   It's a slightly awkward form factor maybe, but you know, it's to support its, what's

01:10:38   that called, a portrait landscape display.

01:10:42   I think it's a big step backwards in my opinion, because I feel like they've concentrated like,

01:10:48   and effectively from everything I've read, that like the screen resolution is exactly

01:10:52   the same, the screen technology is the same, the insides are the same, like they

01:10:56   they're like effort over the last year has been to to make these metal watches

01:11:03   and metal and leather bands as opposed to improving the thing that I think they

01:11:07   should have been working on which is the software and I know they have a 2.0

01:11:11   software release coming too but it it's not a better computing device it's just

01:11:16   supposedly a better a more attractive watch but to me it's not it's really

01:11:20   horrid. It's like if the Juju people had spent that whole year making the case

01:11:27   look better because that's what was gonna make it more competitive

01:11:31   against the inevitable iPad. Right, and the thing that got me, and no offense to

01:11:35   the Pebble people, and I'm rooting for them, I hope Pebble becomes a long-term

01:11:38   success in terms of, you know, who I would love to see a public company like Pebble

01:11:43   grow and become a success. I just feel like this generation is a step

01:11:47   backwards and that they've lost their way or they've lost their eyes off the

01:11:53   ball but they said it's like pebble came out at CES and said we've made our

01:11:57   watches look better and all the tech press was like pebble has made their

01:12:01   watches look better because that's what they said as opposed to actually

01:12:04   looking at them and just saying man these are watches are ugly yeah so

01:12:12   So here's the next annoying trend for the next year, maybe forward, is tech companies,

01:12:20   the nerdiest of nerdy tech companies pretending that they have friends in the fashion industry.

01:12:29   Case in point, this invitation my wife, who is a fashion journalist, got inviting her

01:12:34   from Intel to the CES wearable technology briefing for an intimate session on what's

01:12:40   next for Intel in fashion? This is a microchip company, semiconductor company, inviting fashion

01:12:48   people to hear what they're doing in fashion. I can't even imagine how awesome that was.

01:12:54   I think my favorite part of that invitation is the word next. As though there have been

01:12:59   previous Intel, as opposed to Intel's previous forays into fashion. Like when they took Pentium

01:13:08   three chips that failed testing on the assembly line

01:13:11   and turned them into necklaces.

01:13:14   - When they added YKK zippers to the bunny suit.

01:13:17   That's what they did for this.

01:13:20   Yeah, so that's, of course, Apple,

01:13:26   they just hired the CEO of Burberry, so that's cool,

01:13:29   but this is just gonna be on and on and on about,

01:13:32   what was the one I read, this department store

01:13:37   called Opening Ceremony is doing something with some,

01:13:41   I don't remember, some wearable tech stuff.

01:13:44   It's all this wearable tech stuff.

01:13:45   Oh, we got fashion people, it's gonna be okay.

01:13:48   Yeah.

01:13:50   - I feel like, I don't know,

01:13:54   I feel like different people obviously have different tastes

01:13:56   and of course, no doubt, zero doubt in my mind,

01:13:59   of course there's some people who think

01:14:01   the new Pebble watches look either just fine or even good.

01:14:04   Of course.

01:14:05   But I think in the mass market, I feel very, very confident

01:14:08   betting that they are going to go over lead balloons.

01:14:13   And number two, they cost $250, which

01:14:16   I know by the standards of a Rolex or something like that

01:14:19   is low.

01:14:21   But it's probably a lot more than the average person has

01:14:26   ever spent on a watch in their life.

01:14:28   It's a decent chunk of change.

01:14:30   I mean, it's the same amount of money you spend on an iPod

01:14:35   or something like that.

01:14:36   And I feel like Pebble gets a pass

01:14:42   from a lot of the tech, either the tech press

01:14:45   or tech fans who read the tech press

01:14:49   because they're a little guy

01:14:51   and they're sort of an upstart.

01:14:52   But-- - Yeah, kickstarter,

01:14:54   success story, all this stuff. - Right.

01:14:55   But 250 bucks is 250 bucks.

01:14:57   And if they're charging $250 for a consumer

01:15:01   to buy this gadget, it should be judged

01:15:04   the same standards as say Apple or Amazon or Kindle, Samsung or anybody. It's the same

01:15:12   250 bucks and you know if Apple came out with a watch that looked like the Pebble it would

01:15:19   and should cause their stock to collapse. It should cause like a 50% decrease in the

01:15:26   price of the stock because it would have to make you think that if they came out with

01:15:30   with a watch and it looked like the Pebble Steel.

01:15:33   I would say the company is doomed.

01:15:35   And every, I was wrong.

01:15:37   Steve Jobs was the entire company.

01:15:39   They're doomed.

01:15:42   - Johnny Ive is a fraud.

01:15:43   - Right.

01:15:44   And I'm not saying that that means that Pebble is doomed.

01:15:47   I just think it means though that Pebble still has a lot

01:15:49   of work ahead of them to get there because you can excuse

01:15:52   Pebble as an upstart for having something.

01:15:55   But I still feel like it's up to the tech press

01:15:58   and the critics to call it as they see it.

01:16:00   and as it is.

01:16:01   - Right, yeah, if it's an early adopter nerd toy

01:16:06   and that these guys are basically a lab upstart,

01:16:10   cool, that's awesome, but it's being pitched

01:16:12   as if it should be some sort of mainstream thing.

01:16:16   - Right, and I don't think it's there.

01:16:18   - I don't see it, I don't see it.

01:16:20   - I think the fitness trackers kind of sort of are,

01:16:23   if you're into that, and I was thinking about that this week.

01:16:27   It never really occurred to me before,

01:16:28   But everybody knows, everybody who follows this stuff

01:16:31   knows that Tim Cook has worn a Nike fuel band

01:16:36   for a couple of years at least.

01:16:38   - And is on the board of Nike.

01:16:40   - Right.

01:16:40   I can't remember any Apple executive

01:16:46   publicly using technology from any other company ever.

01:16:51   And I know now Apple and Nike have a kind of relationship.

01:16:54   And I know that, you know, like the integration

01:16:57   with the iPods, the, what's that thing,

01:16:59   it's like a dingus you put in your sneaker.

01:17:02   - Nike Plus.

01:17:03   - Yeah, whatever it's called,

01:17:04   but there's like a thing you can buy to put in your sneaker,

01:17:06   and when they announced it, I remember thinking like,

01:17:08   so is Jobs gonna wear Nike sneakers

01:17:11   instead of his New Balance, and he did.

01:17:13   Like for the one event, he had like a pair of Nikes on.

01:17:15   So it's not-- - Then he went back.

01:17:19   - Yeah, it was just for that event.

01:17:20   But, and I always wonder about that, like if, you know,

01:17:25   And I think about some of the stupidest things,

01:17:27   but because I feel like nobody else does.

01:17:28   Like I'd love to get the story on that.

01:17:30   Like did somebody have to go up to Steve Jobs

01:17:33   and say, "Hey Steve, it would be a lot better

01:17:35   "if you wore a pair of Nikes."

01:17:37   And like what was his reaction?

01:17:38   Or did Jobs himself say, "Give me a pair of Nikes

01:17:41   "to wear for this thing."

01:17:42   - Yeah, did he demo them?

01:17:44   I don't remember.

01:17:45   - I forget exactly how it went, but it was some kind of--

01:17:47   - When was that?

01:17:48   I don't even remember.

01:17:49   - I don't know.

01:17:50   It was a long time ago.

01:17:51   I'm gonna guess it was like '95 or 2005.

01:17:54   Mm-hmm 2004 2005. I'll have to look it up

01:17:58   But I can't you know

01:18:03   After that, it's not like Jobs was on stage wearing Nike shoes and he you know, certainly, you know, obviously he's not wearing the Nike shoes

01:18:09   He didn't have the Nike tracker in them

01:18:11   I

01:18:12   Can't remember anybody else wearing probably also not a fitness

01:18:16   Hobbyist no, I don't think so

01:18:22   But Tim Cook isn't he like yeah, he's a jock. Yeah, or if not a jock. He's like a

01:18:28   Hiker basically, I think you might remember, you know do like mountain biking and stuff like that

01:18:34   definitely fitness aficionado

01:18:37   And like you said he's on the Nike board, right? Yes, which has always been weird to me

01:18:43   Yeah recently like I see pulling an Eric Schmidt. I don't know and it's it would seem

01:18:49   extraordinarily out of character for him to pull a Nike an Eric Schmidt

01:18:53   Yeah, which would be to unveil like a Nike plus or Nike fuel band killer. Yeah, I

01:18:59   Apple guests guest watch or whatever right gasps band and it's not just because he's on the board and

01:19:06   you know and that he wears one, but they even specifically called out Nike when they announced the

01:19:12   the iPhone 5s with the

01:19:17   the m7 coprocessor

01:19:19   You know and that it's not just for the iPhone to use but third-party apps can tap into it and that Nike was the one

01:19:25   They called out

01:19:27   You know and that app has shipped and that Nike has an app that can use the data from you know

01:19:32   that they've

01:19:35   Apple stance on that has sort of been that you know that it's there for everybody to use not just them

01:19:40   Yes, you know

01:19:44   And I don't know whether they work together on something like that. I don't know. Well, I if you know

01:19:50   Like Apple's gonna make shoes. So I need shoes for something then

01:19:53   where I mean wearable stuff definitely as

01:19:56   Technology as everything shrinks, you know everything from cameras to to batteries to the CPUs

01:20:04   I mean wearable is obviously of you know future direction for computers

01:20:09   But what are they gonna do? Right? What's you know, I put it in

01:20:14   Clayton Christensen slash horse dead you terms what's the job to be done what are

01:20:20   you hiring these wearable devices to do and it seems like the one thing that's

01:20:25   been a success so far is stuff like the fuel band and Fitbit where you're hiring

01:20:30   these devices to track what you've done all day and tell you how far you've gone

01:20:34   and you know to help you track your goals for burning calories throughout

01:20:39   the day but that's a niche and I feel like it's already being satisfied I feel

01:20:43   like anybody who just wants to know how far they've walked,

01:20:46   how many stairs they've climbed,

01:20:50   you can already buy a device at a reasonable price

01:20:53   that works really well and integrates with your computer

01:20:58   so you can store the data and stuff like that.

01:21:01   I don't-- - And they're building it

01:21:04   into the iPhone, right? - Right.

01:21:07   - Just chips, so-- - It's already built

01:21:08   into the iPhone, you know, and I just don't see that

01:21:11   as a market that's ripe for disruption, right?

01:21:15   It just doesn't seem like there's any kind of problem

01:21:18   with those devices.

01:21:19   If all you wanna do is track fitness,

01:21:22   they seem to work really well and be pretty elegant

01:21:24   as opposed to the pre-iPhone smartphone market,

01:21:28   which was a mess and the phones had terrible interfaces

01:21:31   and confusing and everybody didn't know

01:21:36   how to use their phones.

01:21:37   And it was just ripe for something

01:21:40   like the iPhone to come in.

01:21:41   I just don't see that in the fitness tracking.

01:21:43   That's not to say, again, Apple surely is working

01:21:46   on wearable stuff, tiny little things,

01:21:48   but I don't think a fitness tracker is that.

01:21:52   - Yeah, right. - Could be something

01:21:53   that does fitness tracking as part of

01:21:56   a dozen other things, but not a dedicated--

01:21:59   - That's an app. - Right.

01:22:01   - On the device, just as iPod is also an app,

01:22:04   but whatever the music, you know the way.

01:22:06   So, yeah, I don't know.

01:22:09   And then what is the job that you're hiring it for?

01:22:12   - Yeah, I don't know.

01:22:13   I feel like that is just,

01:22:15   it was not answered by anybody at CES.

01:22:17   I didn't see anything that makes me think,

01:22:19   wow, that's any kind of important step forward in this.

01:22:23   I guess another thing I was--

01:22:24   - But did you see the wearable thing

01:22:26   that records audio around you for 90 minutes on loop?

01:22:30   - No, 90 seconds, I think.

01:22:32   - Oh, really?

01:22:33   Oh, okay.

01:22:34   - Yeah, it's like a 60 second continuum.

01:22:36   I forget the name of it.

01:22:37   I saw it on the verge of it.

01:22:38   - Fipi quarter?

01:22:39   I don't remember something like that.

01:22:40   - Well, it's interesting 'cause I do feel like

01:22:43   that's inevitably where some of this stuff is going.

01:22:47   The idea is you get 60 seconds of recording at all times

01:22:51   and it just drops off at,

01:22:53   61 seconds ago just drops off at the end of the buffer.

01:22:56   But then if something has happened within the last minute

01:22:59   that you wanna save, you hit a button

01:23:01   and it saves that audio.

01:23:07   It's the audio equivalent of capturing that photo

01:23:11   that you're watching happen

01:23:13   as you take your phone out of your pocket.

01:23:15   - Right, and I remember, I forget who linked to it,

01:23:17   but one of the questions on the website is, is it legal?

01:23:21   - Yeah. (laughs)

01:23:22   - Which is half funny in the creepy sense

01:23:24   and half sort of, you know, we're gonna have to face this,

01:23:28   because just think, like, if you just go forward,

01:23:31   10 years is probably even too much,

01:23:32   but 10 years from now,

01:23:36   the storage on our phone size devices is going to be so much bigger and hopefully

01:23:44   battery life will be so much better that doing something like recording a 60

01:23:48   minute buffer of audio you know would not strain the device at all and so why

01:23:53   not like how do you know if every if somebody isn't recording it and you know

01:23:57   and and project forward with something like Google Glass that people wear on

01:24:01   you know, his eyeglasses with a much smaller camera and heads-up display so

01:24:07   that you don't see it per se, you know, like what happens if you can't see the

01:24:11   camera in somebody's glasses? You have no way to distinguish between someone who's

01:24:15   wearing non smart glasses and regular glasses and it has the storage that it

01:24:23   can just store a 60-minute buffer at all times so that you don't have to record

01:24:27   in advance, you can just decide, hey, this last five minutes

01:24:31   has been sensational.

01:24:32   I just saw, I don't know, a cab burst into flames

01:24:35   on the street.

01:24:36   I've got footage of it.

01:24:37   I didn't remember to hit record, but I can just say right now,

01:24:40   hey, save the last five minutes.

01:24:42   Yeah, I just got into a really great argument

01:24:44   with a drunk guy.

01:24:46   I wish I could post that to SoundCloud or something.

01:24:49   I'm not entirely comfortable about that.

01:24:51   I don't think it's a great idea, but I'm--

01:24:54   It's happening.

01:24:55   Right.

01:24:55   There's no--

01:24:56   Exactly.

01:24:56   - And you can't escape it.

01:24:57   - Exactly.

01:24:58   That's my main point.

01:24:59   - It's the way it's gonna be, so.

01:25:01   - We kinda have to come to grips with it.

01:25:03   - Yeah.

01:25:04   - And figure out how, you know,

01:25:04   what's going to be considered acceptable and--

01:25:07   - And for better and worse,

01:25:09   like all those Russian dash cam videos are awesome.

01:25:12   They've way improved my life, so.

01:25:14   You know, there's absolutely an upside to this, so.

01:25:18   It's not a separate device, but it's an app on my Apple,

01:25:25   you know, whatever.

01:25:26   - I guess that's probably the best, you know,

01:25:29   in a weird way, those Russian dash cams,

01:25:31   which apparently everybody, I guess you have to have,

01:25:34   like your insurance even mandates it in Russia,

01:25:36   because-- - Something like that, yeah.

01:25:37   - So much insurance fraud and problems in Russia,

01:25:42   and in, you know, car insurance,

01:25:44   that everybody has these always-on dash cams

01:25:47   that are always recording when your car's on.

01:25:49   And so, yeah, like you said, YouTube is just full

01:25:53   of all sorts of fantastic footage

01:25:55   that never would have been captured before.

01:25:57   It's almost like that's the canary in the coal mine,

01:26:00   like the future of everything.

01:26:03   Like at some point, everything will be like Russian dash cam.

01:26:06   Everything that happens will be,

01:26:07   if it was, oh, I wish we could put that on YouTube,

01:26:10   you'll have it to put on YouTube.

01:26:12   - Well, shit, did you see the plane crash today?

01:26:15   You know, some guy had his,

01:26:17   what are the GoPro camera on while he was in a plane crash?

01:26:21   can survive, but there's a YouTube video of it.

01:26:25   Is that true?

01:26:26   Yeah.

01:26:27   It was – maybe you woke up late, but when I was looking at Twitter this morning, that's

01:26:33   what everyone was retweeting.

01:26:34   But yeah, crazy.

01:26:37   The new normal is that everything is recorded.

01:26:40   So even scary stuff, we'll be able to see.

01:26:44   Yeah.

01:26:45   I didn't really see a lot in that direction at CES.

01:26:47   I kind of was wondering if we were gonna see

01:26:50   a bunch of Google Glass sort of

01:26:55   heads up display type things

01:27:00   and it didn't seem like anybody had anything like that.

01:27:04   - I thought I saw one but it was just very,

01:27:07   even more primitive than Google Glass.

01:27:11   - Yeah, it was almost more like an Oculus Rift

01:27:15   sort of thing. I saw somebody else had one that was meant for safety workers. Maybe it's

01:27:24   the one you're talking about, safety glasses with a built-in heads-up display.

01:27:27   Yeah, I think that might have been it.

01:27:30   Which I think is a fine idea. Somebody on Twitter, it was like, "Gruber said Google

01:27:36   Glass will never be useful." But I think something like safety glasses with a built-in heads-up

01:27:41   display. Well that's great because if you're already wearing safety glasses

01:27:44   you're not concerned about you know fashion at all. It's a practical you know

01:27:48   you're in a practical situation so why not have a heads-up display if it could

01:27:53   help you you know in terms of you know doing the job that you're doing to have

01:27:58   the safety glasses on in the first place. Right if you're you know like a chemist

01:28:03   or something like that you can have you know the step-by-step instructions for

01:28:08   - Construction worker or something, building a building,

01:28:11   and you wanna reference the plans.

01:28:14   - Right, or consult about the supplies, do I need--

01:28:18   - Or the IKEA instructions.

01:28:20   - Right, but it would be cool,

01:28:24   like if you're a construction worker and you need more,

01:28:27   I don't know, nails, that you could bring it up

01:28:30   on your heads up display and use gestures

01:28:34   or buttons on the side and then have them sent up to you

01:28:37   or something like that without having to take a phone out of your pocket or something like

01:28:42   that. That would be great. But I didn't see anything like that.

01:28:47   Dave: No. That's one of those things where maybe they're there hiding in the corner,

01:28:53   but no one posted it. I don't know. Someday I'll have to get out there and find the weird

01:28:59   stuff.

01:29:00   Dave: Let me take one last break here and thank our third sponsor before we finish up

01:29:04   the show. And our third sponsor, and it's a trifecta of longtime sponsors of the show,

01:29:12   is our friends at An Event Apart. An Event Apart is the conference for web and designers,

01:29:23   for people who make websites. It's an intensely educational two-day learning session for passionate

01:29:31   practitioners of standards-based web design. It was founded by web visionaries Eric Meyer

01:29:37   and Jeffrey Zeldman. Jeffrey Zeldman's name is all over the web standards movement. The

01:29:43   before and after of what it was like to make websites from when the web standards movement

01:29:48   started is like night and day. It's like--

01:29:50   >> Not to interrupt or be dramatic, but his book literally changed my life.

01:29:55   >> The orange one.

01:29:56   >> Yeah.

01:29:57   >> Yeah.

01:29:58   >> I'm looking at it right now.

01:29:59   >> Yeah.

01:30:00   When did that come out?

01:30:01   Probably like--

01:30:02   - I don't know, I bought it in like 2004.

01:30:05   - Yeah.

01:30:06   - So, and just learning web standards like,

01:30:10   completely changed the way I made websites.

01:30:12   - I wonder too, honestly,

01:30:14   I know again, sounds like hyperbole,

01:30:16   I genuinely wonder whether CSS ever would have made it

01:30:20   as a mainstream technology without Eric Meyer,

01:30:22   because Eric Meyer, he made it understandable, you know.

01:30:27   It's a weird way to specify styles,

01:30:30   And it was really weird compared to what we did before CSS on the web.

01:30:35   And it was very weird compared to what designers were used to in the print world.

01:30:39   And Eric Meyer really helped make that understandable.

01:30:42   Well, they're the two guys who started an event apart.

01:30:44   They're not the only speakers.

01:30:45   There's a whole great lineup of speakers.

01:30:47   And also, the other thing that really sets an event apart about

01:30:52   is that it's not just once a year.

01:30:54   It tours and it comes to you effectively.

01:30:59   They have upcoming events in Atlanta, Seattle, Boston, San Diego, Washington, D.C., and Chicago.

01:31:11   And I think that only runs through August.

01:31:12   I think you go further, I think there's one in Austin coming up, San Francisco.

01:31:19   Check the website.

01:31:20   You'll find one near you for the coming year.

01:31:22   I've been to an event apart several times, I think three or four times, and it's always

01:31:27   great.

01:31:28   new every year the speakers are always on the cutting edge and stuff all sorts

01:31:35   of new stuff like stuff that we take for granted maybe even today like responsive

01:31:42   web design where you make one design that scales to go from everywhere from a

01:31:46   3.5 inch iPhone to a 27 inch iMac came on stage at an event apart go to an

01:31:57   event and event apart.com. You'll find out more, you'll find

01:32:02   out the dates and the locations where they're coming. And if you

01:32:06   use this URL, and event apart.com slash talk show, just

01:32:13   talk show know the they'll know you came from here and you can

01:32:16   find cities, schedules, tickets and more. Can't recommend it

01:32:20   enough. Great, great conference. And anybody who builds websites

01:32:25   if you owe it to yourself to go.

01:32:28   So what else?

01:32:32   CSCES.

01:32:33   I guess the only other big thing I saw

01:32:35   was that there's a lot of car companies who are there.

01:32:37   - Yeah.

01:32:40   - I don't know.

01:32:41   - And I wonder if they're, I mean,

01:32:43   I guess they want to be considered

01:32:46   consumer electronics as well.

01:32:49   That one's really hard for me

01:32:52   because I've never owned a car,

01:32:54   so I don't really know.

01:32:55   Like I remember when Cars got CD players,

01:32:59   and that was cool.

01:33:00   And now I get in the cab and they have the name

01:33:02   of the song that's playing.

01:33:03   And I still don't know how they did that,

01:33:06   but on the radio.

01:33:08   But yeah, no, and Ford and Microsoft, I guess,

01:33:12   have that kind of alliance.

01:33:14   - And there was something with Audi and Android,

01:33:19   but it seemed like it was a lot more hyped before CES

01:33:23   than when the show came and went in terms of anything

01:33:26   that was actually announced.

01:33:27   - Yeah, that stuff always just seems so forced.

01:33:33   - Yeah, I'm still waiting to see how the announced

01:33:38   back at WWDC, but still, it seems like the cards

01:33:43   aren't gonna come out until later this year,

01:33:44   how this iOS in the car turns out.

01:33:48   Which is more or less a way to let you use your iPhone,

01:33:52   presumably, but I don't know, maybe it'll work with iPads too. But you bring your iPad or iPhone to your car, plug it in, and

01:33:59   then the UI of your car is driven by iOS.

01:34:04   And I don't know, you know, I have so many questions about that.

01:34:08   I feel like, you know, all they did just kind of threw up a bunch of, you know,

01:34:11   here's the car companies who we've got on board so far.

01:34:13   And in theory, it sounds great. And one of the things that sounds great about it is that rather than build, say, build Android

01:34:22   0.3 into the dash of your car, but then you keep your car for 10 years and 10 years from now

01:34:27   You're running an old version of Android if it was forward-thinking enough

01:34:31   And it was just you plug your phone in then when you get a new phone in a year or two

01:34:34   Your car gets smarter, too

01:34:37   Yeah, and you get new stuff and you keep going forward and a new OS and right apps and all that stuff

01:34:44   You know like in the same way that

01:34:48   Steve Jobs on stage seven years ago at the original iPhone introduction saying

01:34:52   Let's get rid of all these little plastic buttons on these phones because you can't change them over time

01:34:57   And if you come up with a new idea in six months

01:34:59   You can't add a new button or joystick or whatever to do it. Let's just make it all software

01:35:04   I feel like that same sort of logic applies to let's let the brains of the cars computer be your phone

01:35:11   Because you're gonna upgrade your phone a lot more fruit

01:35:14   Most people at least are gonna upgrade their phone a lot more frequently than their car

01:35:17   (laughs)

01:35:19   - Well, unless you lease.

01:35:20   I guess people who lease their cars tend to

01:35:23   maybe upgrade on a phone-like cycle,

01:35:26   but people who buy their car don't.

01:35:28   - Yeah, and I saw actually a really interesting chart

01:35:30   on Twitter today, which was how people commute.

01:35:34   And it was something like 70% of people commute

01:35:37   in a car by themselves.

01:35:39   So it actually is a real use case and a real market.

01:35:44   there's billions, I guess, of hours a year

01:35:48   are spent car commute.

01:35:50   So that's certainly a market for audio apps,

01:35:55   audio advertising.

01:35:59   I don't think games or video are really,

01:36:03   well, I guess for the backseat people.

01:36:04   - It's about attention, right?

01:36:06   I mean, attention, the quote, unquote, attention economy,

01:36:09   which is sort of a, sounds like a buzzword,

01:36:11   but I think it's an important,

01:36:14   It really is an important component of understanding the whole computer industry today.

01:36:22   I mean, that computer/entertainment industry is that all sorts of things are constantly

01:36:27   in flux except for the fact that we only have 24 hours a day.

01:36:33   Everybody only has so much attention.

01:36:36   It's a limited resource.

01:36:42   the supply is constant and the demand is ever growing.

01:36:47   Or I guess the supply of potential,

01:36:49   I guess it's that the,

01:36:50   I guess on the supply demand curve,

01:36:53   the demand is constant because we each only have

01:36:55   so much attention to give,

01:36:57   but the supply of what we could give it to is infinite.

01:37:01   - And has been mostly dominated

01:37:07   by terrestrial radio forever, basically.

01:37:11   Right. And even, you know, what's the bigger change in recent years has been satellite

01:37:15   radio, which is just terrestrial radio better.

01:37:22   Using a different distribution technology.

01:37:24   It's far closer to terrestrial radio in terms of experience and content than...

01:37:32   The Internet or anything.

01:37:33   Yeah. Exactly.

01:37:34   Anything interactive.

01:37:35   Yeah. I think it's interesting. I bet this is one of those things where just to get this

01:37:39   technology in the car probably has like at least a two year,

01:37:44   maybe three year lead time.

01:37:45   Right.

01:37:46   So that's probably part of the answer as to why it's one of

01:37:50   those things that they kind of mentioned quickly and then hope

01:37:54   you don't think too much about unless you're going to be

01:37:56   developing for that sort of thing. But once it's in there,

01:38:01   if it is modular, and if it's something that you know, your

01:38:04   phone is powering, it's kind of like a real a real use case for

01:38:09   the palm folio.

01:38:11   Yeah, maybe.

01:38:12   But it really is built into a car.

01:38:14   It actually makes sense.

01:38:15   But I think like you said with that statistic where 70% probably Americans, as God it can't

01:38:21   be, you know.

01:38:22   I think, yeah.

01:38:23   I mean, America is clearly skewed in that direction of solo commuters in a car.

01:38:32   But it's certainly not unique.

01:38:36   I mean there's you know people who drive to work all over the world but if you could get

01:38:41   them to shift their keep me from being bored to death while I do this for an hour or two

01:38:48   hours or you know I'm not there's all sorts of statistics you know on that number of people

01:38:53   who have like two hour plus commutes a day and shift that keep me from going insane out

01:39:00   of boredom from the radio, whether it's terrestrial or satellite, and switch that to iOS or Android

01:39:07   or any other platform.

01:39:09   Boy, that's a huge opportunity to suddenly have two more hours of somebody's attention

01:39:14   a day going into the app economy instead of the radio economy.

01:39:20   Dave Asprey Yeah.

01:39:22   I guess the early adopters are the New York City cabbies who have chat lines that they're

01:39:28   on all day, which is kind of interesting. That's not really a mainstream thing, but

01:39:34   that's certainly one thing that could be more easily done with some sort of app platform

01:39:40   in your car.

01:39:41   Yeah. I have no doubt in my mind. I mean, I haven't conducted a survey. Maybe I should.

01:39:47   I don't know. But there's no doubt in my mind that the whole rise in podcasting as a popular

01:39:54   and something that can actually be a business is in large part driven by commuters.

01:40:00   Dave: Definitely.

01:40:02   Dave: Yeah.

01:40:03   I mean, I don't commute so I listen to far fewer podcasts than probably most people who

01:40:08   listen to this show.

01:40:11   But I think back to the years when I did commute.

01:40:14   And then this is the thing where it doesn't even matter if you're in a car or not.

01:40:16   I mean, people who walk to work or take a subway to work or anything like that, any

01:40:20   kind of public transportation, you can listen to podcasts.

01:40:24   And there's no doubt in my mind that commuting is the attention fuel behind podcasting as

01:40:30   a business.

01:40:31   Dave Asprey Yep.

01:40:33   Yeah, I think that'll be definitely one of the home screen apps on whatever that UI looks

01:40:41   like.

01:40:42   Justin Perdue But I think wouldn't it be great if to get

01:40:43   Dave Asprey Marko's forecast or whatever it's called.

01:40:46   Justin Perky Wouldn't it be great to get your podcast?

01:40:48   Dave Asprey Thundercats.

01:40:49   Justin Perky Yeah, Thundercats.

01:40:50   Thundercats.

01:40:51   Dave Asprey What's Marko's podcast app called?

01:40:52   I forgot.

01:40:53   Overcast. Overcast, sorry. Oh, that's a good name. Yeah, damn, that's a good name.

01:41:00   Wouldn't it be great if your podcasts that were on your phone were as natively accessible in the car as turning on the radio?

01:41:11   Right? That to me is what this iOS in the car hopefully is getting at, where you don't...

01:41:16   It's not like you're sitting there fiddling with cable connectors and a phone interface

01:41:21   that isn't really meant to be used while you're in the car, you know, like when you want to turn

01:41:25   on the radio, you just punch a button. Right? And then if you want to change the station,

01:41:29   you twist the dial. Wouldn't that be great if you could pick through your podcast that easily?

01:41:33   And that drives me nuts that Siri doesn't understand the concept of a podcast. Like if I say,

01:41:41   play the latest episode of the talk show. It just even in the

01:41:44   native Apple podcast app. Yeah, like in theory, boy, it would be

01:41:48   great if you get Siri, you know, and, you know, and this opens up

01:41:52   and we could do a whole show about, you know, yeah, Siri and

01:41:55   third party apps. But boy, wouldn't it be great if you

01:41:57   know, every podcast app could just provide Siri with look,

01:42:02   here's a structured data in the format you want of, here's the

01:42:06   the content I have to offer.

01:42:08   And so that the person can say play

01:42:11   the newest episode of the talk show in Overcast.

01:42:16   - And where I left off listening on my headphones

01:42:20   'cause iCloud knows.

01:42:22   - Right, well I guess that would be up to each app.

01:42:24   But each app could sync it their own way over IP.

01:42:27   - But even when podcasts were part of the iTunes app,

01:42:31   the music app, iPod, whatever it was called,

01:42:33   it still couldn't handle it.

01:42:36   It can do songs, it can do albums,

01:42:38   and all that kind of stuff, but can't handle podcasts.

01:42:42   - Right. - So I hope that's--

01:42:43   - And the other thing too that occurs to me

01:42:45   is clearly the future of entertainment in your car,

01:42:47   if not the present, right?

01:42:49   I'm sure there's a lot of people, it's already the present,

01:42:51   but the future of entertainment in your car,

01:42:54   it's not FM radio, and I think it's not satellite radio.

01:42:58   I mean, I think satellite radio is a temporary cliche.

01:43:01   - Yeah, when Howard Stern goes into podcasting,

01:43:05   It's cellular IP, right?

01:43:08   And why pay for some kind of cellular IP built into the car

01:43:13   when you've already got your phone with you

01:43:15   every single time you step into the car

01:43:16   and your car has plenty of energy to spare

01:43:21   to keep your phone charged while you use it?

01:43:24   It's, you know, so hopefully that's the future.

01:43:28   But there didn't seem to be any kind of major progress

01:43:31   on that front at CES.

01:43:32   And I was curious whether anybody was going to come out

01:43:35   with something compelling before Apple does.

01:43:39   And it doesn't seem like that happened.

01:43:41   - Nope.

01:43:43   But maybe that's the wrong venue for it, I don't know.

01:43:45   - Yeah, maybe, you know, you never know.

01:43:47   But then why else would all these car people be at CES?

01:43:50   - They say that for the car show or something like that.

01:43:52   I don't know, Detroit car show or something.

01:43:55   - Anything else?

01:44:00   - I'm good.

01:44:01   - Oh, that's about it.

01:44:02   So next year we're going to Vegas.

01:44:04   - We have to, yeah, let's do it.

01:44:06   Someone's gotta sponsor it, but let's do it.

01:44:10   Someone call Samsung, get us a...

01:44:13   - Yeah, somebody like Samsung

01:44:14   should be the one to sponsor it.

01:44:16   - Yeah, then we'll do a live show at CES.

01:44:20   We'll have, I don't know, special guest.

01:44:24   All right, I'll get on it.

01:44:27   I'll make it happen.

01:44:28   - All right.

01:44:29   Dan Fromer, thank you so much.

01:44:32   throughout, what do you want to promote?

01:44:34   - Hey, let's plug my podcast this week.

01:44:36   - Oh, let's plug that.

01:44:37   - Because I promised my wife we'd do one this weekend.

01:44:41   So we'll have a new episode.

01:44:43   It actually, it's called The Needle and the Mouse,

01:44:46   and it covers some of the topics

01:44:48   we were talking about today,

01:44:49   specifically the intersection of technology and fashion.

01:44:53   So we talk about stuff like why are TVs so ugly

01:44:58   and wearable and all that crap.

01:45:00   So theneedleinthemouse.com.

01:45:03   - And that's spelled out A-N-D, the needle in the mouse.

01:45:06   So I bet if you just Googled,

01:45:07   just Google search for the needle in the mouse podcast,

01:45:10   it'll show up.

01:45:11   - Yeah, it's fun.

01:45:11   We try to do it every couple weeks and it's been great.

01:45:15   - Well, I think it's a ripe topic for a show.

01:45:20   I think you easily fill up next two, three years.

01:45:25   And the Mac people will appreciate our logo,

01:45:28   which is the old Mac mouse.

01:45:31   - Nice, very, very nice.

01:45:33   All right, thank you, Dan.

01:45:35   - Yeah, thanks for having me.

01:45:36   - All right.

01:45:37   - See you in Vegas.