The Talk Show

38: Up To The Creepy Line


00:00:00   So did you get your WWDC ticket?

00:00:02   Uh, you know me.

00:00:05   I don't need a ticket.

00:00:09   No, you don't need a ticket.

00:00:10   I'm not going for the event.

00:00:13   That was pretty amazing.

00:00:15   I was meant to go back to see what the jokey predictions were from last year to see if they were actually beaten.

00:00:25   Right, because everybody was sort of looking at this exponential growth.

00:00:29   When it sold out, yeah, right, when it sold out.

00:00:31   You know, where it went from never having sold out to selling out in, I don't know.

00:00:36   I actually have this written down.

00:00:38   Hold on.

00:00:39   I can look it up and then we'll sound smart.

00:00:42   It was up through 2008, never sold out.

00:00:46   Then 2008 was the first sell out and it was announced March 13th, sold out two months

00:00:52   later, the 14th of May.

00:00:54   2009 was the 26th of March they announced it and it sold out one month the 28th of April. So when two months one month

00:01:02   The next year was about a week 28th of April to the 6th of May. That's

00:01:08   2010 it sold out then then 2011 is when it started getting nuts

00:01:12   Announced in the morning on 28th of March and sold out 12 hours later and then last year

00:01:22   What was it two hours? Yeah, two hours two hours yesterday. It's sold out in a half a second. I

00:01:28   Was predicting a total with utter shit show

00:01:36   I've thought that they'd flip a switch at 1 p.m

00:01:39   Pacific and say we're starting to take tickets and then I thought everything would just the entire internet would collapse upon itself. Nothing would happen

00:01:46   And it wasn't quite like that. I

00:01:50   I didn't know. I did secure a ticket. And I wasn't –

00:01:55   You did.

00:01:56   I had no secret system. I just –

00:01:58   Really?

00:01:59   What was it? 1 p.m. my time. I reloaded the page. It still said, "Not yet," or whatever

00:02:07   the thing said. And I hit reload again and it was a little button showed up that said,

00:02:14   in and I hit sign in and it auto filled my ADC credentials and I hit continue and then

00:02:22   there was something else and it said continue and then it said now it's time to pay and

00:02:26   it auto filled my Safari auto filled my I have different it's a different we call those

00:02:34   things the Apple ID that has my payment information and it pre filled in my credit card all I

00:02:40   had to do is type the secret four digit code. I hit continue and then it said, "Thank you.

00:02:49   You've purchased a WWDC ticket." And I was like, "Wow! That was really easy." And then

00:02:54   in the meantime, over in my IM window, I think it was a couple of friends were open and Paul

00:02:59   Kefasas was like, "Sold out." And I just thought he was joking. And then something

00:03:04   that it was sold out and I you know I just presumed that because it was like

00:03:09   four clicks and I credit card confirmation number for me that it was

00:03:13   like the same way for everybody but apparently not I where do they go from

00:03:19   here I don't know I really don't I think it's you know I don't know what

00:03:24   you know I guess this is better I think this is better than then last year you

00:03:30   know where if they start selling at the moment they announce it somebody

00:03:34   somewhere around the world it's the middle of the night and they're asleep

00:03:37   and it's you know it's too late so people keep asking for a lottery system

00:03:43   people keep asking what for a lottery system yeah I feel kind of feel like

00:03:48   what they did yesterday was a de facto lottery well that's what I was one that's

00:03:52   what I was thinking too you know I don't know how else I don't know how else they

00:03:56   They could make it more luck-based.

00:03:58   I don't know.

00:03:59   I don't know.

00:04:00   I don't know.

00:04:01   I don't know.

00:04:02   I don't know.

00:04:03   I don't know.

00:04:04   I don't know.

00:04:05   I don't know.

00:04:06   I don't know.

00:04:07   I don't know.

00:04:08   I don't know.

00:04:09   I don't know.

00:04:10   I don't know.

00:04:11   I don't know.

00:04:12   I don't know.

00:04:13   I don't know.

00:04:14   I don't know.

00:04:15   I don't know.

00:04:16   I don't know.

00:04:17   I don't know.

00:04:18   I don't know.

00:04:19   I don't know.

00:04:20   I don't know.

00:04:21   I don't know.

00:04:22   I don't know.

00:04:23   I don't know.

00:04:24   I don't know.

00:04:25   I don't know.

00:04:26   of Moscone, the north or south or something like that and have more room.

00:04:31   But that doesn't get them that much further, I don't think.

00:04:34   And they can't really, like one thing lots and lots of people suggest is why don't they

00:04:38   split off Mac and iOS.

00:04:42   I think two problems with that is, the biggest problem is they can't do two, well they could

00:04:47   do two weeks, they could do whatever they want.

00:04:49   But every week of WWDC is a week where Apple's engineering effectively shuts down.

00:04:53   Like this is actual, the actual people making Apple products,

00:04:57   or at least the software, are there at WWDC

00:05:00   doing these presentations and stuff.

00:05:02   And to do it for two weeks would be, you know,

00:05:07   an additional drain on Apple actually working

00:05:11   on their products and stuff like that.

00:05:12   I think the other problem with that is that iOS

00:05:15   so dwarfs Mac OS X, even though Mac OS X

00:05:18   has never been as popular as it is,

00:05:19   as you know, developer platform,

00:05:22   I just don't think it makes a big difference.

00:05:25   I think that if--

00:05:26   - Some of the resources are the same, right?

00:05:27   - I think the other, the way they could split it

00:05:29   that might make it a little bit more double capacity

00:05:33   would be if they split off games as a separate conference.

00:05:38   - Ah, yeah.

00:05:40   - Like, I think if there's one group that could,

00:05:44   I don't know if it would be half,

00:05:45   but one group that would split off the most people

00:05:48   who are interested in something else specific

00:05:50   that could sort of be its own conference would be like iOS gaming.

00:05:53   Right.

00:05:56   I mean it seems like some people are trying to

00:06:01   fill the gap that Apple can't fill by creating side conferences and even

00:06:06   trying to run them during the same week which I think is kind of

00:06:09   clever. Yeah it is kind of interesting because one thing too about WWDC

00:06:14   I mean even though it sells out instantly and it's as big as Apple can make it in

00:06:17   Moscone West

00:06:18   it's not that big of a conference by Moscone standards, you know, compared to...

00:06:24   because, you know, I don't even know if Apple's made this official, but

00:06:28   everybody just passes the number around that it's capped at about 5,000 people.

00:06:33   And I know that that's about right. It's somewhere around four or five thousand

00:06:37   attendees at WWDC. But like, I know that the Java 1 conference that Sun used to

00:06:43   run, and I guess Oracle runs now, I think it's over 20,000 attendees, you know, it's

00:06:47   almost more like a convention, you know, like a trade show type thing too. And

00:06:52   there's a couple of other trade shows and I know that that there's a GDC

00:06:55   conference, the Game Developer Conference, that's huge because it used to be, I

00:07:00   think it's in March or something like that or February, and the last couple of

00:07:04   years it coincided with when Apple was into having introduction events for new

00:07:11   iPads. And so I was out in San Francisco for the event and like it was like hard

00:07:17   to get a hotel room and I'm like totally unfamiliar with that you know usually

00:07:20   like for like Mac world and for WWDC it's not that hard to get a hotel room

00:07:26   there's tons of hotels around Lascone but like GDC is so big that it actually

00:07:30   like fills up the hotels you can't even get a room so WWDC is not like that at

00:07:35   all so there is room for you know little alternative things yeah and it seems

00:07:42   part of the the great thing about WWDC is getting personal contact with the

00:07:47   Apple developers right absolutely it's getting it I mean the sessions are part

00:07:51   of the point but also part of the point is being able to go up to the guy or

00:07:54   woman after the session and say I've got this particular problem and you know I

00:08:00   don't know how to solve it and they give you a clue as to maybe what the problem

00:08:03   is right and they they will sometimes I mean you know you can't count on it but

00:08:08   sometimes you can get them to say something to you that they would not put

00:08:12   writing in an email. Right. Right. You know, some, you know what I mean? And you might be able,

00:08:18   you know, they're not going to say, but there are, there is a, you know, you forward on the

00:08:22   Mac could get them in trouble. But there is also a host of good Apple developers who are not,

00:08:31   who do not work at Apple. And it seems like a lot of people could benefit from

00:08:38   going to something else that might be less expensive and you can actually get a ticket to.

00:08:42   Yeah, and the only thing I wonder is I wonder if these alternative things,

00:08:46   I know there's a CocoConf that I think they're trying to get up, a CocoConf alt or something

00:08:52   like that and uh yeah I forget what and then there's one called alt what's the other one

00:08:56   alt wwdc yeah which I guess they get away with by the fact that they're not charging anything

00:09:04   Yeah, I don't know about that. That's, I don't know. It seems a little kind of concerning.

00:09:10   They just, some jackbooted Apple thugs come into the middle and shut the whole thing down.

00:09:19   Frog march everybody out.

00:09:23   So the other big thing this week, and it does seem now like it's, I mean, you call it two

00:09:31   times in a row I call it a pattern. It's two times in a row they've announced WWDC the

00:09:36   day after Apple's second quarter earnings come out. And I think, I don't know that it's

00:09:42   quite the plan like they knew all along. I think that it's that they don't announce WWDC

00:09:47   because they're not 100% sure they're going to be ready and they want to wait till they're

00:09:52   100% sure that they, you know, they're going to have, you know, new versions of iOS ready

00:09:56   to show for developers and stuff. And then by the time they're ready, if it's close enough

00:10:00   to the earnings date then they're in that quiet period and I feel like you know they

00:10:05   just figure we might as well wait till it's over. That whole quiet period thing though

00:10:09   I don't understand. It seems like it's like it's sort of muscally defined. Do you understand

00:10:14   that?

00:10:15   Yeah I well I mean I understand the principle but I don't understand I don't know if there

00:10:19   is anything that's set in stone as to how far in advance they can't talk.

00:10:26   And those earnings. My God what a shit show.

00:10:30   This is one of those things, and this is one of the reasons I wanted to have you on the

00:10:33   show this week, because I feel like it's become the second thing, that people, there's like

00:10:37   a contingent of people, and I realize, I truly believe them, that they're annoyed and that

00:10:42   they're sick of it or whatever, but the one thing that often comes up is there's a contingent

00:10:47   of people who don't like it when people like us link to stupid articles and point out specifically

00:10:55   how stupid they are because we're quote-unquote feeding the trolls and we're giving them exactly

00:11:00   what they want, which is page views, and we're making Rob Enderle filthy, stinking rich.

00:11:10   And I kind of understand the principle there, but I'd, you know, and I try not to link to

00:11:16   stupid people who are in obscurity. But like when somebody writes something really stupid

00:11:21   at like, let's say, Forbes or something like that, like, I feel like if you can point out

00:11:26   how stupid it is there's a there's a point to it right because I mean I know

00:11:30   Forbes has always been sort of the nutty of the serious financial publications

00:11:35   but it still it's it's relatively well respected in some regards right and you

00:11:42   think that they would know better right and the other thing that people are

00:11:46   starting to complain about is why does everybody write about Apple's finances

00:11:50   who cares about the finances and the stock price blah blah blah just you know

00:11:54   we want to read about the products and what they're doing and stuff like that and I understand that too, but

00:11:59   I kind of feel like it's such an absurd story

00:12:03   that it

00:12:06   It demands attention

00:12:09   Yeah, it's just it's a bizarre story. Like if their stock price were what I think is even vaguely

00:12:15   aligned with

00:12:18   How well they're doing well then I wouldn't be writing about it

00:12:22   right? And there was a time when I think it was for years where it was at least loosely sane,

00:12:27   and I didn't write about it. I feel like what makes it interesting is how insane it's gotten.

00:12:31   Yeah. It's people have become detached from reality.

00:12:38   And in some- Oh, absolutely. And some of it seems to be- it's so hard to figure for- for me anyway

00:12:47   to figure out the workings of Wall Street, but there's so much 12-dimensional chess

00:12:52   going on that – but some of it seems like it's deliberate.

00:12:55   Right.

00:12:56   You know, there's a deliberate campaign and what – you know, I'm not tinfoil-hatted

00:13:03   enough to think that it's an organized campaign, but there are very good reasons for – you

00:13:10   know, financial reasons for some of these people to try and drive the stock down.

00:13:14   Right.

00:13:15   And so they do just that.

00:13:16   It's not just like speculators or people shorting the stock or stuff like that

00:13:20   somebody any reader sent me a quote today from a guy at

00:13:24   At one of the European carriers, I don't know Sweden or something like that

00:13:31   He was speaking at a conference and the guy was like the CEO of one of the major carriers there and he just flat-out set

00:13:37   On stage it would be great for us. I really hope Apple falls on its face and collapses in the phone market

00:13:45   You know and I think the thinking there is that Apple is in such a strong position that of course the carriers have this contentious

00:13:51   relationship with them because they want to dominate the relationship with the customers and Apple has sort of usurped that where

00:13:57   With the iPhone Apple controls it right and you know famously just stuff like the fact that Apple controls the software updates

00:14:04   I mean no other phone still has that every other phone around the world you still get your software updates through the carrier

00:14:10   Yeah, and so that's you know if what if not for Apple Apple's like the Scooby-doo gang

00:14:13   You know who you know if not for the kids. I would have gotten away with my plot

00:14:17   But then you see then like this guy at least had the balls to be honest and say it

00:14:23   You know just come out and say it on stage, but you know that a lot of those guys are the unnamed sources

00:14:29   You know that these business record

00:14:31   reporters

00:14:33   quote you know when they say source is close to the familiar with the blah blah blah say you know

00:14:38   Component orders are down for Apple or whatever. It's people who have

00:14:43   you know, a stake in the game. Right. And now that this, I mean this was actually even before

00:14:50   they announced their quarterly results, but there was a Forbes piece from Sky about how, you know,

00:14:57   Tim Cook's days were numbered. That's one of the ones I was thinking about, right. And it was widely

00:15:04   cited. And then the thing that happens, and it's so dastardly, is like this, it's the old game of

00:15:10   telephone where it's like after this guy does and he's not even like a columnist

00:15:14   at Forbes he's like a contributor which is like what Forbes means by that is

00:15:19   shit that anybody can throw up against the wall and see what sticks and they

00:15:24   get rewarded for writing the stuff that gets a lot of page views you know and

00:15:30   then that guy Doug Cass who he just tweets and apparently he just

00:15:36   purposefully and apparently completely legally just tweets things that aren't true and then

00:15:42   bets the way that that is going to go and famously it was wasn't the day of their quarterly

00:15:50   results oh it was right before their stock stockholders meeting right before apples annual

00:15:55   stockholder meeting a couple months ago a couple weeks ago like the day before Doug

00:16:00   Doug Cass says, "My gnomes up in the mountains say Apple's about to announce a stock split."

00:16:07   And I don't know if that was good news or bad news in investor speak, but whichever

00:16:11   way it was, he bet the other way.

00:16:13   He like – because he knew it wasn't true.

00:16:15   And then like two hours later, he's like, "Well, what does my guy know?

00:16:18   I don't know."

00:16:19   And then the next day, he comes and goes and there's no stock split and nobody cares.

00:16:23   And then now, two months later, two days or one day right before Apple releases its financial

00:16:30   results he tweets my gnome says Tim Cook's Tim Cook is cooked right and then

00:16:37   all of a sudden with this guy who made up a thing about a stock split two

00:16:40   months ago and we know we made it up or if he didn't make it up whoever told him

00:16:47   made it up you know same guy who made that up two months ago says that Tim

00:16:51   Cook is cooked and one guy in Forbes says that executives at the company say

00:16:56   The board is looking for a replacement to Tim Cook

00:16:59   The thing that happens in is now you can find like 20 30 40 things around the web of people saying

00:17:05   People are saying right and cook is in trouble

00:17:07   Word is Tim Cook is in trouble

00:17:11   and

00:17:13   It is

00:17:14   Couldn't looking at looking at his complete nonsense his wording

00:17:18   So some Wall Street sources close to some Apple executives

00:17:23   Say such a move is afoot

00:17:26   So this guy on Wall Street says he knows somewhat at Apple who says that it's

00:17:36   happening. And it just beggars belief like who in the world seriously who in

00:17:43   the world there's what is there seven billion people on the planet that we up

00:17:46   to seven billion out of all seven billion people who are walking the face

00:17:50   of the earth who could replace who could Apple's board sanely replace Tim Cook

00:17:55   with right now. Right. Now, in all honesty, anybody in the world? I mean, now you I could

00:18:02   come up with maybe two or three answers. I would say Johnny Ive, maybe Phil Schiller.

00:18:10   I think if they announced that they said we fired Tim Cook and replace him with Phil Schiller,

00:18:14   I think everybody would think, well, that's, that's, what's the point of that? Right? Johnny

00:18:17   Ive might be the one who's some people would say, well, that's good. Here's why, though,

00:18:22   nonsense though what does anybody actually think that Johnny I've has less

00:18:27   control right now today then he would if his title were changed to CEO he has

00:18:34   exactly the right amount of control for the things that he's an expert in right

00:18:38   and I don't even know what his title is but he's effectively he's like chief

00:18:42   designer chief product designer chief design officer yeah I think it's I think

00:18:45   it's now chief design officer to to describe it but especially given what

00:18:50   happened with Scott Forstall last year where Johnny Ive was put in charge of

00:18:54   software design - he's effectively in charge of all product design hardware

00:18:59   and software right which is exactly like what Steve Jobs was really in charge of

00:19:06   you know the ultimate arbiter of taste in product design for the company like

00:19:11   so it wouldn't it wouldn't make any change right does anybody actually think

00:19:15   that like Johnny Ive has this like game-changing world shaking it's it's

00:19:22   like the next thing that's as amazing as the first iPhone and Tim Cook is like no

00:19:26   I don't think so Johnny I think we better just keep selling that we have

00:19:30   keep that one in labs we don't need anything like that and and the other

00:19:35   thing is that we put I've in charge of stuff that he's not competent to be in

00:19:40   charge of. Right, he would need Tim Cook. Right, right. He'd need a great operations person. Spend his entire day, come in in the morning and

00:19:49   leave at night doing nothing but look and work and refine and iterate product design.

00:19:54   Yeah, yeah. Exactly. So like there would be a credibility of saying Johnny Ive is

00:19:58   the CEO of Apple where, you know, the people who are at Apple's clearly respect

00:20:02   him and if not, you know, love him and he's there, he knows and understands

00:20:09   Apple but exactly it would just be burdening him with responsibilities that

00:20:12   would distract him from what he does best and he doesn't seem like the kind

00:20:15   of guy who really wants that spotlight anyway no he hates that he never gets up

00:20:19   on stage he needs to do that stuff right so I know and people often you know

00:20:23   write to me and say do you think Johnny I will do the keynote at WWDC and stuff

00:20:27   like that and if he could in theory I mean he'd certainly have the

00:20:29   credibility but my understanding and it certainly seems to be from years and

00:20:33   years of watching is that he just doesn't enjoy the you know he doesn't

00:20:37   public speaking. He likes, you know, and he certainly acquits himself very, very well in

00:20:42   those design videos they always show. But I don't think, you know, he likes being in front of a

00:20:47   crowd. Right. You know who I'd like to see though? Who? Big Bob Mansfield. Oh, man. Big Bob Mansfield

00:20:53   would kill it on stage. Can you imagine? I mean, I was thinking of it. I was thinking of CEO.

00:21:00   Stage time at that event. That's right. Yeah, yeah. But I was thinking of CEO.

00:21:05   Oh, CEO. Yeah, yeah, I could see big Bob Mansfield as CEO.

00:21:10   Talk about gravitas.

00:21:11   Right. He really looks like...

00:21:13   He's just...

00:21:13   And he's like the type of guy too where... Because some of it is like negotiations,

00:21:20   where you're negotiating with record labels or movie companies or something like that, or

00:21:25   parts suppliers. Wouldn't you like to see... I'd like to see Bob Mansfield

00:21:30   in the negotiating room. And he probably actually is there, actually, if you think about what he

00:21:35   does. He probably is there. The ones with Samsung, where they're negotiating over the

00:21:40   CPUs and the stuff that Samsung makes for them. I think those have got to be the best

00:21:46   meetings that Apple has.

00:21:47   I think he walks in...

00:21:48   The ones where they're dealing with Samsung over the components they order with them.

00:21:51   He walks in and he has a bowling ball in his hand and he just crushes it.

00:21:58   Like he probably weighs... And he's not a corpulent man. He's just a large man.

00:22:02   No, he's just sturdy.

00:22:03   Sturdy, you know, but he's he's he's a very imposing

00:22:06   Yeah, and I you know, yeah just figured that these guys from Korea are not physically imposing

00:22:11   I got he probably weighs as much as three of them

00:22:13   The other person I what about forest all I

00:22:19   Think I think that would play very poorly

00:22:23   I think it would play poorly too, but I would imagine that that's somebody that people think of

00:22:28   All right

00:22:30   I think if he hadn't been ousted if that hadn't happened

00:22:34   you know it

00:22:37   He in theory could have been CEO

00:22:40   It seems like you get a lot of it be the next one or something like that

00:22:43   And I probably you know, I don't know that much about like intrigue at that level

00:22:47   But I wouldn't be surprised if that's what forestall thought in the back of his mind

00:22:50   Not that he was going to boot Tim Cook out

00:22:53   But that if if and when cook stepped aside say 10 years from now or 15 years from now that he might be next in

00:22:59   line. But the main point though is that there is nobody outside Apple who would have any

00:23:05   credibility whatsoever as CEO of Apple. Nobody, not one person in the world could possibly

00:23:11   come in at this point and be CEO of Apple. Nobody and nobody within the company would

00:23:17   have any faith in that move. That would be like if you think that there's any kind of

00:23:22   brain drain now of engineers leaving. I mean they would all, I mean it would just be like

00:23:27   a "rats leaving the sinking ship" type thing if the board went nuts, fired Tim Cook, and

00:23:32   hired anybody outside the company.

00:23:35   But it just doesn't even seem like this question in reality is being broached whatsoever.

00:23:41   Right.

00:23:42   That this whole thing is just complete and utter fabrication.

00:23:47   Right.

00:23:48   It makes no sense.

00:23:49   Either maliciously…

00:23:50   It really doesn't.

00:23:51   It is like the logical equivalent of somebody saying that we can solve climate change by

00:23:57   just everybody just turn your vacuum on and just vacuum up the CO2 in the atmosphere and

00:24:03   then keep it, you know, make sure the bag is sealed tight.

00:24:07   Problem solved.

00:24:08   Like it makes that much sense.

00:24:11   There's no logic to it whatsoever.

00:24:13   Because I guess what they're saying, I guess if you want to pretend and just play along

00:24:17   with them that the board is actually thinking about kicking, giving the boot to Tim Cook

00:24:21   and hiring somebody outside the company to take over, is that the board of Apple is not

00:24:27   just going to fire Tim Cook, but that they are going to completely change what Apple

00:24:32   does and the way Apple does things and do things completely differently and I guess

00:24:39   more like what other companies do. You know, why can't Apple be more like a regular normal

00:24:44   computer company

00:24:46   Which makes no sense when you look at the actual numbers they reported which is like insane amounts of revenue and profit

00:24:54   Like why in the world would you want to change that it makes no sense whatsoever. Yeah

00:25:01   and the

00:25:04   degree to which

00:25:06   The overblown analysis is going there. So let me give you another quote. This is

00:25:11   somebody writing for Yahoo Finance

00:25:14   Regardless of what Apple stock does in the near term, yesterday's performance left little doubt that Cook is not only a pale imitation of Steve Jobs

00:25:21   but a low-rent version of John Sculley.

00:25:25   Doesn't make any sense. It doesn't make any sense. It sounds bad. If it were true, if it were true, that would be devastating.

00:25:36   It's just a, it's just a cheap shot. Right. That has no basis in fact. I mean,

00:25:42   School Apple was losing money when Scully was was in charge

00:25:46   No, they were I looked at them profit

00:25:50   I looked at I they had they had one they had at least one story was that he really left them in bad shape for

00:25:56   the future yes, because

00:25:58   Under Scully they did ship the Newton and the Newton, you know was a real thing

00:26:03   And very well regarded and you know

00:26:06   It's we could do a whole show about how much how far ahead of its time

00:26:09   it was in in terms of post PC computing and stuff like that a great great thing loved my Newton in a lot of ways but

00:26:16   was not a financial hit so it didn't help Apple financially and

00:26:20   They wasted all this time on the Mac on these things the pink intelligent and all these things that never amounted to anything

00:26:28   But I do think that he left them profitable. They did they had it they had a whole under

00:26:33   What's the guy not Gil? Who's the guy spinner German guy who used to hide under his desk and cry?

00:26:39   Michael Spindler.

00:26:40   Michael Spindler.

00:26:41   Michael Spindler.

00:26:42   Yeah.

00:26:43   Where the hell is he?

00:26:44   He's the one Apple CEO who is still alive, but nobody ever trots him out.

00:26:50   You know, like Scully gets trotted out every couple of months and gives his two cents on

00:26:55   what Apple's up to.

00:26:58   Nobody ever talks to Michael Spindler.

00:26:59   I think he's a venture capitalist now.

00:27:02   I should get Spindler.

00:27:03   Wouldn't that be a great get from the talk show?

00:27:06   Okay.

00:27:07   I looked this up previously and

00:27:10   the so

00:27:12   Scully got ousted in October of 93 and

00:27:17   In the second calendar quarter Apple reported its worst quarterly loss ever

00:27:24   188 million

00:27:26   Which now so you know 180 million? They were losing money regularly, right?

00:27:31   right

00:27:34   Here's a here's an article. I found this is the same thing. This is now. This is in the Harvard Business Review now

00:27:39   I believe the Harvard is still a respected

00:27:42   College and University

00:27:46   There's still a they're still in the Ivy League right yes, all right Harvard Business Review, and it's by Vijay

00:27:52   I'm gonna do a very poor job on their their their names Vijay

00:27:56   Govinda Jharan and

00:27:59   Sree Sree Kanth

00:28:03   Srinivas leave there might both be of Indian descent but my apologies to them

00:28:08   you're the worst person in the world to be trying to pronounce their names it's

00:28:11   an article called finding your place in the competitive jungle and they're

00:28:17   saying that there's there's four types of innovators you can and it goes by

00:28:22   whether your size is high or low and your speed is low or high and so if

00:28:27   If you're a low size, small size, low speed, you're a tortoise.

00:28:34   If you're small and high speed, you're a rabbit.

00:28:40   If you're large and slow, you're an elephant.

00:28:45   If you're large and fast, you're a jaguar.

00:28:49   The iPhone was a jaguar.

00:28:53   I mean, Jesus.

00:28:59   Apple's iPhone was a jaguar, big and years ahead of the competition.

00:29:02   It got there through a series of breakthrough innovations, the touch screen and integrated

00:29:06   smartphone pricing where the end consumer pays 199.

00:29:12   So the iPhone invented that?

00:29:14   The iPhone invented getting an expensive phone for 199?

00:29:16   I was not aware of that.

00:29:18   And the App Store.

00:29:19   Now, the App Store, they did enter.

00:29:21   That actually is true.

00:29:22   fast but the competition was moving faster it slipped from Jaguar to

00:29:26   elephant rather swiftly and Samsung took over that spot with its galaxy right

00:29:32   here's the thing we know this we know this is a fact though right that the

00:29:36   Apple the iPhone still gets 70% of the profit in the total handset industry

00:29:40   right right but that's it's in second place to Samsung yeah but Samsung

00:29:45   overall the iPhone still outsells the galaxy right that's the other thing even

00:29:51   Even if you want to just talk market share.

00:29:52   It's like somehow because Samsung has more total market share because they sell an awful

00:29:57   lot of low end phones, everybody just counts them all as galaxies.

00:30:04   And now people seem to count them all as galaxy notes because everybody seems to think, "Oh,

00:30:10   customers want larger screens."

00:30:11   Well, actually customers buy more iPhones than they buy Samsung's large screen phones.

00:30:17   Some of that will change because, you know, I mean, Samsung will probably sell more because

00:30:21   now the Galaxy S series is huge too.

00:30:26   But previously, it was just the Galaxy Note and a couple other ones that – and they

00:30:30   did not come close to adding up to what the iPhone sells.

00:30:37   But yet, it gets reported over and over again as if fablets are beating the pants off the

00:30:44   iPhone.

00:30:45   Here's their conclusion over how here's their explanation for how the galaxy became the jaguar and the iPhone and elephant

00:30:51   Even though that you know the funny thing is that the galaxy doesn't doesn't Samsung have a Samsung Galaxy elephant. That's like seven inches I

00:30:59   Don't know

00:31:02   Over a four year period the galaxy caught up with all that Apple had to offer and added several

00:31:07   Innovations the key ones being a bigger screen there you go better GPS functionality now that is that true

00:31:14   I don't even know what that would be. I've never range of phones to cover all segments from low end to high end

00:31:19   better rendering of websites with flash players

00:31:23   And better working relationships with partners operating system partners like Google and Android

00:31:30   carriers like Verizon and retailers like Best Buy

00:31:34   It didn't help that in addition to complacence Apple was also arrogant and failed to listen to customer needs

00:31:43   Wall Street recognized this shift early and has published punished Apple stock in spite of great quarterly financial performance

00:31:50   So what was the in the conference call and I know it's the iPad not the iPhone

00:31:55   But I think Tim Cook cited that with the iPad and you know for talking iOS versus Android not just phones or whatever

00:32:01   That 96% of people who buy an iPhone are satisfied with their purchase

00:32:05   Yeah, but they're not listening to customer customer. Yeah, and

00:32:10   And I think you linked to that thing today about customer satisfaction.

00:32:14   Yeah, a 16,000 person survey conducted by Carl Howe, who's actually a pretty good analyst

00:32:20   at the Yankee Group. Right. And the numbers aren't bad for Android. It was something like

00:32:28   74% of current Android users plan to buy another Android phone with their next phone. But 91%

00:32:34   of iPhone users plan to buy another iPhone with their next phone. But Apple's the one

00:32:40   who's not listening to its customers.

00:32:42   I think, you know what,

00:32:47   and one of the things that drives me nuts

00:32:49   is about this whole stock price thing,

00:32:51   is that there really does seem to be

00:32:54   a significant contingent of people

00:32:58   who really do think that whatever Wall Street does

00:33:02   with the stock is right and sane,

00:33:04   and therefore, any explanation you can come up

00:33:07   to justify that is reasonable.

00:33:09   So that's what these guys at the Harvard Business Group do.

00:33:12   It's proof positive that Apple's not listening to customers,

00:33:16   not because of sales numbers, not because of surveys

00:33:20   that show customer satisfaction, but because the stock went

00:33:22   down.

00:33:23   That's the proof.

00:33:24   Let me do the first sponsor.

00:33:30   And then we'll come back to it.

00:33:33   And my first sponsor, I want to thank,

00:33:36   Windows Azure Mobile Services.

00:33:39   That's right, Microsoft.

00:33:40   And they've got-- everybody-- and I

00:33:45   know they sponsored Daring Fireball the other week,

00:33:47   and everybody was a little surprised.

00:33:48   It actually shouldn't be surprising

00:33:50   that they're sponsoring this, because they

00:33:52   know that a lot of developers listen to my show,

00:33:54   read the website.

00:33:56   And Windows Azure Mobile Services

00:33:58   is truly a great, great platform for iOS developers

00:34:02   who want to provide cloud services for their apps.

00:34:06   Their mobile services, they take care of the glue code

00:34:08   necessary for storing data in the cloud.

00:34:11   And this is huge.

00:34:13   This is absolutely huge.

00:34:14   They take care of authenticating users.

00:34:16   And they do it either by Facebook or Twitter

00:34:20   and sending push notifications.

00:34:23   So in other words, what you can do

00:34:25   is you sign up with Azure services.

00:34:26   And instead of setting up your own user system, which

00:34:30   is a huge pain in the ass, let's face it.

00:34:34   Usernames, passwords, sending out email,

00:34:36   people lose their passwords, stuff like that.

00:34:37   Forget it all.

00:34:38   let people sign in using either twitter or face book and microsoft there

00:34:43   the mobile services takes care of it all and you've got them that's it they've

00:34:47   already got an account and who doesn't have either a face book or twitter

00:34:50   account nobody everybody has that

00:34:53   it's all set then you've got a user system in place push notifications you

00:34:57   don't have to set up your own server for push notifications microsoft already has

00:35:00   it for you

00:35:01   it's easy

00:35:03   for anybody who's tried sending push notifications before you know

00:35:06   that configuring that can get really complex fairly quickly.

00:35:09   With mobile services, adding push to your iOS app

00:35:13   is as simple as typing push.apns.send.

00:35:17   That's source code.

00:35:18   You just read-- there it is.

00:35:19   It's-- what is that?

00:35:20   18 characters.

00:35:20   Push.apns.send and specify the device token

00:35:26   for where the push notification is going, the payload.

00:35:29   In other words, what's the message?

00:35:30   What are you sending to them?

00:35:31   And that's it.

00:35:32   Boom, it goes off.

00:35:33   And then your user's phone pings,

00:35:34   there's the push notification if you're looking to build an iOS app or connect

00:35:39   an app that you already have to the cloud take a look at their stuff you can

00:35:43   get started today for free absolutely free here's where you go www.windows

00:35:50   azure.com / iOS and you need the www do the www don't skip it www.windowsazure.com/ios

00:35:59   azure.com/ios. It's, I'd really check it out. I mean you know, and the videos they

00:36:08   have that show you how to use this stuff, it's all done by Brent Simmons. If Brent

00:36:12   Simmons is using this stuff, you know it's good. I mean I can't think of a

00:36:15   higher compliment to pay. And they're good videos too. Really, really good stuff.

00:36:20   So check it out if you're an iOS developer. That was the first, that was

00:36:23   the first time I saw it because he linked to those videos and I thought, "Oh, well,

00:36:27   take a look I was surprised too until I heard it you know and then I saw it and

00:36:31   it was like you know what they're really they're killing it they really are yeah

00:36:35   it's a smart move on their part what it is it's the same reason that developers

00:36:40   love cocoa and the reason they love writing iOS apps is that so much of the

00:36:45   the busy work of getting a new app off the ground the scaffolding the framework

00:36:50   let's just say framework is there and that you can just if you want to make an

00:36:55   app that well I don't know what the hell it is but you know you don't have to

00:37:00   worry about all this stuff of getting an app that draws and does a list and has

00:37:04   smooth scrolling cocoa gives you all that well windows is or is like that but

00:37:08   for the cloud services where you don't have to be a you don't have to set up

00:37:11   your own server and do all this programming it's all there they already

00:37:13   have a push notification thing really good check it out so app back to apples

00:37:21   financial results. So the thing that they're getting dinged on is that the

00:37:28   that's the standout numbers is that earnings were down profit was down year

00:37:33   over year and that's the first time since I think 2003 that earnings dropped

00:37:38   in any quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. So that I mean that's

00:37:42   obviously that's worth noting that's there's no burying the fact that that's

00:37:46   you know it's not a good thing but revenue was up and I think you know I I

00:37:53   know Horace did you of course has a much smarter and deeper analysis about this

00:37:57   but I think long story short the story is simply that in the year ago quarter

00:38:04   they had 47 percent profit margins and now this quarter at 37 percent profit

00:38:09   margins which is a huge drop but it's not that they dropped and now they have

00:38:13   bad profit margins they still have profit margins that are the envy of the

00:38:16   entire industry. They're almost as high as Microsoft's, and Microsoft is a software

00:38:22   company, not a hardware company. The hardware companies aren't supposed to have profit

00:38:25   margins that high. It's really that last year, a year ago, it was just like a fluke,

00:38:33   crazy high profit margin.

00:38:35   Tim Cynova Yeah. They had an amazing quarter a year ago.

00:38:40   I was looking at some of the …

00:38:41   some of the yeah it's sort of like a basketball player who like has a game

00:38:49   you know it's like like Michael Jordan has a game where he makes 27 out of 28

00:38:55   shots makes every free throw and a bunch of three pointers and scores 64 points

00:39:00   and then the next game you know scores 32 points and then you know it's a huge

00:39:05   drop but scoring 32 points is still you know it's great you just you can't have

00:39:09   have that perfect quarter every time.

00:39:12   They also introduced more lower margin products.

00:39:17   Right.

00:39:17   And they expressly admitted that the iPad mini

00:39:21   is a low margin product by Apple's standards for profit margins.

00:39:26   I mean, they're still selling.

00:39:28   And I'm checking the numbers here, but I'm pretty sure that everything

00:39:31   other than Macs went up.

00:39:35   Right.

00:39:36   more iPads, more iPhones.

00:39:39   Macs were basically flat, down just a tiny bit.

00:39:43   And--

00:39:44   iPods are down.

00:39:45   But that business is kind of going away.

00:39:46   Well, so iPods are kind of disappearing.

00:39:48   Sure.

00:39:50   But I think it's because--

00:39:52   you know what I also think is really--

00:39:54   I think a big part of that is because of iPhone.

00:39:57   For years now, the decline in iPods

00:39:59   has been because people are buying iPhones,

00:40:01   and they're just using their iPhone everywhere

00:40:03   they would use an iPod.

00:40:05   And I think the other nail in the coffin for the iPod line

00:40:08   is the iPad mini, right?

00:40:10   'Cause I think that the thing you buy

00:40:12   for playing games and stuff like that,

00:40:14   I think there's an awful lot of people

00:40:15   who maybe were buying iPod touches for that

00:40:18   and now they're just buying a mini instead.

00:40:20   - Right.

00:40:21   - So I don't really think the iPod,

00:40:25   anybody's really worried, you know, I don't know.

00:40:28   I'm not gonna say it's irrelevant,

00:40:29   but it's just, it's almost irrelevant.

00:40:31   - It's no longer, I mean,

00:40:33   It's not a very big slice of their revenue anyway anymore.

00:40:36   The iPad numbers were huge.

00:40:38   It went from like 11 point something million a quarter ago to 19.5 million, almost 20 million,

00:40:45   which is huge growth.

00:40:47   And I know, yes, that a big part of that is a lower margin profit or lower profit margin

00:40:52   iPad mini.

00:40:54   But I still think that what Apple-- and they don't reveal.

00:40:58   They don't say what the profit margins are on any individual product.

00:41:01   they did was acknowledge that it's lower than their usual standards. I'll bet it's still

00:41:05   better than almost anybody else in the industry gets for their tablets.

00:41:08   Tim Cynova Oh, yeah. It's gotta be. I mean, most of

00:41:11   those guys aren't even making anything off their tablets, right? The seven-inch ones

00:41:16   are basically being sold almost at cost for, in the hopes that people will buy movies and

00:41:22   stuff.

00:41:23   Dave Asprey So one thing that to me is interesting about

00:41:26   that is if the iPad mini is low margin, and they said it is, and it still costs more than

00:41:32   what a lot of us were kind of expecting it to cost. I mean, so it's $329 is the starting

00:41:37   price. And I know a lot of us, before it came out, were kind of thinking they would hit

00:41:41   maybe like $249 or something like that. So, A, how unrealistic were our predictions that

00:41:49   it would only be $249 or even $199, right? People were thinking, "Well, hell, if Amazon

00:41:54   has 199 tablet then Apple will have 199 tablet but if it's already low margin at

00:42:00   329 that was clearly we were vastly underestimating how much these things

00:42:04   cost mm-hmm and then be how how crappy are the tablets that other people make

00:42:10   that do cost 199 because you said I didn't know this that you you bought a

00:42:19   Did you buy a Kindle Fire or a Nexus 7?

00:42:22   No, it's a Nexus 7.

00:42:23   I bought a Nexus 7.

00:42:24   I actually bought it for my wife because she wanted something.

00:42:28   She thought the iPad was too… the 10-inch iPad was too large for her to read in bed.

00:42:33   And she wanted something with a backlit screen to read in bed.

00:42:36   And I wanted to try it.

00:42:39   So I bought her the Nexus 7.

00:42:41   And it was fine for her.

00:42:44   She basically used it for a few months for a reading device and playing basic games.

00:42:53   It worked fine.

00:42:54   Then the iPad Mini came out and we were like, "Okay, well enough of that.

00:43:00   Let's get an iPad Mini."

00:43:03   I got her an iPad Mini and then I took the Nexus 7 and I was going to use it on my desk

00:43:08   as just a thing to play music and maybe watch Netflix on or something.

00:43:14   I went to start it up and it was completely dead and I tried to recharge it.

00:43:21   I had to plug it in and it took more than 24 hours of charging for the thing to come

00:43:27   back to the point where it would do anything.

00:43:32   Now I've reconditioned it a little bit and so the battery is better now than it was,

00:43:37   but it still doesn't hold the charge that my iPad holds.

00:43:41   And it's only what like like oh yes, not even it's not even an aerial. Yeah, it's ten months old

00:43:46   And then I found when I did put it on my desk

00:43:50   The sound that was coming through when I put headphones on

00:43:54   Was just it was scratchy because of interference from either my iPhone or we have a we got a micro cell

00:44:01   Because we're still on AT&T. Yeah, it's that what is it that weird like yeah. Yeah, yeah, it's like that

00:44:07   Yeah, so it basically

00:44:10   Failed I mean it didn't it couldn't do what I wanted it to do

00:44:13   It's a ten I wonder how hard that stuff is like like that

00:44:17   I never think about that

00:44:18   But it used to be more of a problem with my consumer electronics though that weird those interference sounds and I yeah

00:44:23   You pointing that out made me realize that I can't remember the last time I've had that problem

00:44:27   I I can't either I seem to remember getting that a lot particularly doing stuff like this

00:44:31   Like if I had my iPhone on the on the desk

00:44:34   It would it would interfere with

00:44:37   Yeah, recording. I'll bet that's another one of those things that Apple spends a lot of time in those those weird anabolic chambers

00:44:44   Yeah, in addition to testings like cell phone and Wi-Fi its antenna strength. They must go in there and and work on

00:44:51   Cutting down on that sort of interference. Yeah, but I don't have it anymore. I mean, I've got my iPhone on the

00:44:57   Table, I don't have it. So it's on and I don't watch a lot of stuff here at the desk with yeah

00:45:02   Mini as a TV. Yeah, I watch baseball games. Let's admit it. Yeah

00:45:06   So anyway, yeah. In my experience, anecdotally, there's a difference between a $200 device

00:45:20   and a $330 device.

00:45:22   Right. And you can say what you want about Apple's margins. I know our good friend,

00:45:31   Paul Thoreau or Throt, whatever his name is, often makes the case that Apple's margins

00:45:38   are immoral, that it's somehow immoral to charge what people are willing to pay.

00:45:43   You know, I've seen other people too that you should charge like a good honest 10% profit

00:45:48   margin and I don't know.

00:45:53   I'm not quite sure where the moral logic there goes.

00:45:57   But if they admit that it's a low margin product, selling at $329 and let's, you know, I think

00:46:05   the average price of an iPad mini is probably more like $400 because people get the cellular

00:46:09   version or the 32 gigabyte version or something like that.

00:46:16   How it just goes to, and you know that Apple is very efficient and they're making these

00:46:22   things in great quantity, right?

00:46:24   Apple has the best deals on flash memory, the best deals on screen components because

00:46:28   they make the most, you know, they sell the most of them. So yeah, there must be a huge

00:46:33   drop off in quality to sell something for $199 even if you're like Amazon and willing

00:46:38   to do it at no profit. Because if the iPad mini actually cost $199 to make, then they

00:46:46   wouldn't, it would, it wouldn't, they wouldn't be saying it as lower margins than Apple averages.

00:46:52   That would be like right in line. That would be like 33, 35 percent.

00:46:56   So, it must cost more than $199 to make a mini.

00:47:02   Well, you'd think.

00:47:04   Right. But then those guys at – what's that company called? They told me that the

00:47:10   iPad mini only costs like $17 to make. What are those guys called?

00:47:15   That's like every time you hear like, "The human body is only made up of 90 percent water."

00:47:20   Right.

00:47:21   Well, let's get some water and make it human.

00:47:24   Look at all those guys. I can't remember them. They always do that, and they always get headlines.

00:47:27   Every time, like two days after an iPhone hits stores, they take it apart, and they say, "The components cost $6."

00:47:33   The base metals in this iPod are practically free.

00:47:39   And that's another one of those things where nobody ever takes apart anybody else's device and does that.

00:47:44   Nobody ever says that these guys--maybe they do it, but nobody ever makes an article out of it.

00:47:48   Nobody ever makes a big deal about it, right?

00:47:50   ever writes an article that says the Samsung Galaxy S6 costs $7 in components.

00:47:58   So what here's my other thought I took away when I was listening to the call

00:48:04   this is another one of the notes I made when I was listening to the conference

00:48:07   call this week with the Tim Cook and his pals is that if it's a low-margin thing

00:48:13   and they're still talking about it being a low-margin thing I am NOT holding out

00:48:17   hope for a retina iPad mini this year.

00:48:21   That makes me think it's a next year type thing.

00:48:23   Oh, man.

00:48:25   Especially-- two points to make on that.

00:48:27   One is if it's already a low margin product,

00:48:32   it's-- I can actually think of three arguments.

00:48:34   I keep thinking of arguments.

00:48:35   So first is the margins.

00:48:36   If it's already low margin, putting

00:48:38   a really expensive retina display in there

00:48:40   is just going to make it worse.

00:48:41   And I don't think they're going to do it.

00:48:43   Number two, it's clearly having--

00:48:45   it's clearly super popular.

00:48:47   They said it was popular.

00:48:48   They couldn't keep it in stock the last quarter.

00:48:50   And it's affected-- it's clear that it's

00:48:52   affected their average selling price on iPads,

00:48:54   because nothing else-- there is no other iPad that could

00:48:57   be pulling the price down.

00:49:00   So it's popular as is.

00:49:03   And then three, when they added the retina display

00:49:06   to the regular iPad, they made it thicker and heavier.

00:49:10   And I think they really regretted that.

00:49:11   And I don't think they would do that with the Mini.

00:49:14   Yeah.

00:49:15   I think the minis even just the name sort of makes that impossible

00:49:19   and they kind you know they had to do that to put a bigger battery in there to

00:49:22   power the all the extra graphic power to do four times the pixels

00:49:28   also they don't sell they don't sell the we know they do so the iPad 2 still

00:49:33   yeah they do I want to know more it'll be interesting the next time they do a

00:49:37   product refresh what happens to that if they can't that slot there

00:49:41   because I think the whole reason they kept it around was

00:49:44   that they weren't sure why the old iPad was selling.

00:49:49   Was it that people wanted a cheaper iPad

00:49:52   and didn't, a cheaper iPad but wanted the tenant size

00:50:00   or was it that they just wanted a cheaper iPad

00:50:03   and now they're buying a mini instead?

00:50:05   Like I think they kept it around

00:50:07   'cause they just didn't know.

00:50:09   I think it'll be a tell if they do the same thing,

00:50:13   like introduce a new generation of iPad and then keep the current generation, you know,

00:50:19   one 16 gigabyte model around at a low price point for people who do want the big size

00:50:24   but are willing to buy last year's tech to save $100.

00:50:27   >> Got it. It's the year before.

00:50:29   >> Yeah, I guess so.

00:50:31   >> It's two years old now.

00:50:32   >> Well, I'm assuming that if they did that, they would--that if they did it again this

00:50:38   year, they would take that one out and put the iPad 4 or whatever we call the current

00:50:43   ones in.

00:50:44   But maybe I'm wrong.

00:50:45   Yeah, I don't know.

00:50:47   The theory that I've heard, and I don't remember where I've heard this, is that it's the business

00:50:53   iPad, that a lot of companies buy it because it's cheaper, but they want a larger screen,

00:51:01   but they don't care if it's a retina display.

00:51:03   Like the fleet ones, right?

00:51:05   they're setting up a thing in a warehouse where the guy walking around

00:51:08   the house is carrying an iPad instead of a clipboard now you know and it might

00:51:14   get banged up and stuff like that who do you know and they don't care it's not

00:51:16   like a personal device that you get from the company to like use as your device

00:51:21   it's like a part of the work environment you're saying something like that yeah

00:51:24   yeah I mean or just yeah everywhere I point point of sale terminals right yeah

00:51:30   oh that's true yeah I didn't even think about that actually I mean most of my my

00:51:34   vision of this is colored by what my experience was where we were working, where we kept talking

00:51:39   about rolling these out to deliver reporting because for years we were still putting everything

00:51:47   in PDFs and then a lot of the, you know, we're delivering reports to executives and they

00:51:52   would end up printing them.

00:51:53   It's just like, no, no, we're giving them to you electronically.

00:51:58   You can either have this PDF, we'll deliver into your inbox or it's on this website

00:52:03   you could go to too. No, they would get the PDF and then they'd print them out. They're

00:52:08   like, "Okay, well, that's a waste. Why don't we give them iPads because you could get it

00:52:13   for them?" That pays for itself as opposed to the printing.

00:52:17   I guess so, but I do – the one that they're giving out though, it's not – or they're

00:52:21   not giving out, but the low cost, full-size iPad is not retina, right? It's an iPad

00:52:26   2, right?

00:52:27   It's not. Yes, it's an iPad 2.

00:52:29   I can't wait.

00:52:30   I just feel like they've – and again, it's going to be a while because I do think – I

00:52:36   expect – I would love, love, love to be wrong.

00:52:38   This is one of those things where if I'm wrong, I will actually be delighted and I'll

00:52:43   be in line to buy one if they come out with a retina iPad Mini this year.

00:52:46   That would be great.

00:52:48   But I don't expect it.

00:52:50   But that means that developers are going to be supporting non-retina iPads for a while

00:52:56   because I think they're going to be selling non-retina iPads at least until 2014.

00:53:02   But I would love to see them get rid of all the last non-retina full-size iPad.

00:53:07   Yeah. It just irks you.

00:53:13   It doesn't irk me, but I just can't wait to get to the world where everything's retina.

00:53:20   Yeah.

00:53:20   I want retina, iMacs, all the laptops, all the MacBooks to be retina, all the iPads,

00:53:26   all the iPhones. So the iPhone's the first one to go all retina. Now it's the first one

00:53:31   where you can't buy one that's not retina. I just think that it's going to be a total

00:53:35   win for everybody when everything's retina. And then you don't have to worry about when

00:53:40   you're making a website or making an app. You don't have to worry about doing two sets

00:53:44   of graphics. And we've picked this great custom web font and we don't have to pick from Verdana

00:53:50   and George anymore and it looks beautiful and it's great. And oh, let's go see what

00:53:55   it looks like on a 3G. Oh my God. You can't read it. It's terrible. It's a huge pain in

00:54:03   the ass, I think. Especially the retina, the non-retina big iPad, because it's only like

00:54:10   133 pixels per inch. It really kind of stands out when you see one.

00:54:16   So what were the other numbers from the quarter? So the Mac one, I think, is interesting, because

00:54:22   Mac sales were a little bit down, slightly down, quarter over quarter.

00:54:26   Oh, this is a good one too, the Verge.

00:54:29   This is one of my favorite little – just my little Apple fairness radar.

00:54:34   So when the Verge reported Apple's results, now the iPhone sales went from 35 million

00:54:43   to 37 million year over year.

00:54:47   They called that flat.

00:54:49   iPhone sales were flat.

00:54:51   And Mac sales went from 4 million to 3.95 million.

00:54:56   And they called those down.

00:54:58   I love that.

00:55:05   That's great.

00:55:06   Tumbling, tumbling, tumbling Mac sales.

00:55:08   And I think Tim Cook really emphasized this.

00:55:11   It's in the face of the whole PC industry declining 14% year

00:55:17   over year.

00:55:17   Which is like kind of terrifying if you're, I don't know, in the PC industry.

00:55:26   So it's in one of those weird ways where it's like, in a way, it's kind of up.

00:55:31   Like if the whole industry was down 14% and you were only down like 1.2%

00:55:39   we're in a face of an industry that was down 14%.

00:55:44   So that's kind of a win in a way-ish.

00:55:47   Well, I guess it increases their share, right?

00:55:49   Right.

00:55:49   And it continues that streak where

00:55:51   they outgrew the industry.

00:55:53   I guess it's weird you can't really call it outgrowing,

00:55:55   but they outpaced the industry for something

00:55:58   like every single quarter for eight consecutive years.

00:56:01   They're still outpacing the PC industry.

00:56:06   Right.

00:56:08   They're doing better than everybody else.

00:56:10   Yeah.

00:56:12   And what was last--

00:56:13   I was going to look and see what last year's Mac results were,

00:56:16   if they were inordinately high. I don't imagine. No, they weren't. They had one or two quarters

00:56:23   where they actually got to five million. Yeah, yeah. It was sort of an average quarter. It's

00:56:31   just that's the way this is going. People are buying fewer PCs. Right. And you know,

00:56:36   and you know, you call it cannibalization if you want, but I think it's more of this

00:56:41   transition from PCs to post PCs. But I just really think that a lot of this, you know,

00:56:45   the high-water mark of five million max and a quarter everybody knows I mean

00:56:52   they've been saying Apple has been saying this for years I mean I think

00:56:54   even since before even the iPhone came out that look the this industry is

00:56:59   shifting towards laptops laptops are you know that the the main max now are the

00:57:06   Mac books you know and the iMac and the Mac Pro and the Mac mini and stuff are

00:57:10   sort of the the the niche max because every you know that's just the numbers

00:57:15   the numbers don't lie. And I think that's why the iPad is more easily

00:57:21   cannibalizing PC sales now than it would have ten years ago because it's

00:57:26   replacing laptops. Whereas if you really thought you needed an iMac, the iPad

00:57:32   isn't even really something you're gonna think about. You know, if you really are

00:57:35   thinking, "Hey, I want this giant 27-inch display and I really want a lot of RAM

00:57:40   and I'm gonna be doing these demanding things that I need, you know, a super pro

00:57:44   computer for, you know, the iPad isn't that. But if you're thinking, "Hey, I was

00:57:49   gonna get an 11-inch MacBook Air. Why don't I just buy an iPad instead?"

00:57:53   I think there's an awful lot of people who are doing that. I mean, I think that's

00:57:55   how you go from 11 million to 20 million iPads in a quarter.

00:57:59   Yeah. Do you think you spend—well, we're probably bad examples to ask this, but I

00:58:05   was kind of wondering if people are spending more now than they used to—I

00:58:09   guess people in general are probably spending more now than they used to on

00:58:12   computer devices more money or more time yeah more money I don't know they used

00:58:21   to be more expensive my max very quick very often I've never really I've always

00:58:27   liked to use my Mac until they feel way too slow and then I get a new one and

00:58:32   it's like wow they've really improved this year over year I mean like my

00:58:35   desktop Mac is still a 2008 hi you know the time best best MacBook Pro you

00:58:42   you could buy, but by today's standards, I think it's ancient.

00:58:47   Yeah. Yeah. But we buy more devices.

00:58:50   I do. I buy so many iPads, I have to give them away.

00:58:57   Right. And phones and smartphones. But we used to spend all—I mean, the computers

00:59:03   used to be much more expensive. Right. That's the other thing, too, is Macs

00:59:08   used to be— We routinely spend—

00:59:10   couldn't even buy one for $2,000. They were like $3,000, $4,000.

00:59:13   Right. You'd buy a Mac or a MacBook. It'd be like $2,500 to get in the door, almost.

00:59:21   You get a good one. $1024 by $768.

00:59:24   We chewed that up pretty quick.

00:59:28   All right. Let me thank the second sponsor before we run out of gas. Our second sponsor is great,

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01:02:49   by the time this episode airs, at least the first one. And it's really, really funny.

01:02:55   It is—I'm not going to spoil it. I'm not going to say a damn thing about it. But

01:03:00   I laughed and I thought, "My God, it made me want to create my own software company

01:03:05   so that I could have a sandwich video. But anybody who hires a sandwich video, you know

01:03:11   that it's a good product. So at least go check them out to see the sandwich video. And the

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01:03:21   trial so why not sign up? Check them out.

01:03:23   Tim Cynova - These guys have also sponsored my site in the past and every time they do,

01:03:28   I always think, God, I wish I had had this

01:03:31   when I was working at corporate IT

01:03:34   because we had all these problems.

01:03:36   - Yeah, it's absolutely, you know,

01:03:40   and I checked it out, it's really, really good stuff.

01:03:43   I really, they've clearly thought this thing through.

01:03:46   It's not bullshit enterprise software.

01:03:50   It's like, hey, let's like make something that people like,

01:03:53   that is like a real usable product for people.

01:03:56   Yeah. My kid still loves the check mark sandwich ad. Do you remember that one?

01:04:02   Which one was that?

01:04:03   That's the one with the guy, the sort of announcer guy that follows him around with the funny

01:04:08   accent.

01:04:09   Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That was good. I like the one they did for Karateka, the Karateka

01:04:16   Reel.

01:04:17   Oh, yeah. Yeah. Very good.

01:04:21   Jonas really hung on to that one too. Then he kept asking me, "Well, why do you always

01:04:25   punch the eagle. And I was like, "Just do it." He got hung up on that part of it.

01:04:35   The other thing that Tim Cook talked about was new products.

01:04:39   Yes.

01:04:41   Not until fall, but he said, "Not until fall, but in the fall and then throughout

01:04:47   2014."

01:04:49   And I saw, it's like, I don't know, it was unusual to say that. They usually don't

01:04:57   say a damn thing about when you should expect anything new. And I think that it's gotten

01:05:01   to the point with the stock price being depressed that they want to set accurate and reasonable

01:05:06   expectations. I think that's also why they've switched to, instead of severely low balling

01:05:13   their forecasts being pretty accurate for about a year now. I feel like they

01:05:19   feel like by being accurate and a little bit forthright about what to expect it

01:05:23   it will hopefully inject some sanity into the stock market thing right so

01:05:28   don't expect a new iPhone in June at WWDC and they sort of did that last year

01:05:36   too when they announced WWDC last year,

01:05:41   Apple PR put it out there.

01:05:44   I mean, it wasn't even--

01:05:46   it wasn't like a whisper campaign,

01:05:48   but they pretty much put out there

01:05:51   that this year's WWDC is going to be about software.

01:05:55   And read between the lines on that,

01:05:57   it means therefore there is not going to be new hardware.

01:06:00   So last year, they didn't quite come out

01:06:02   and say there's no new hardware, but they said WWDC

01:06:05   is going to be all about software. Right. It was because it was the year before that they didn't say

01:06:11   anything, right? And then the iPhone 4S didn't come out until October and everybody was pulling

01:06:16   their hair out. Right. Everybody, like, there were people, like when the keynote was over

01:06:20   and, like, everybody's filing out of the keynote room, there were people screaming and pulling hair

01:06:25   out of their heads screaming, "Where's the new iPhone?" And people were panicking as though the

01:06:30   the building were on fire because there was no there was no iPhone one of my

01:06:37   other favorite things of the last week or two of insane Apple coverage was the

01:06:41   I think it was the Wall Street Journal but one of them it was either Wall Street

01:06:46   Journal or Reuters or one of them quoted an analyst from from Samsung was it

01:06:54   Samsung finance Samsung I forget the name of it but it's it's a wholly owned

01:06:59   subsidiary of Samsung it's like a financial company they quoted an analyst

01:07:04   from Samsung who said that the iPhone was scheduled for June or July and is

01:07:11   now going to be late it's like well of course if a guy from Samsung says that

01:07:17   it must be true what kind of know what kind of bias is you know certainly

01:07:24   nothing wrong with that. Here's my thing. It's the third paragraph from

01:07:32   Jung Ali's report for Bloomberg. I'm sorry to the Wall Street Journal and

01:07:35   Reuters. It was Bloomberg, but I knew it was one of those guys. It was LG display

01:07:40   profit misses estimates on stalling Apple sales. Apple is losing dominance.

01:07:46   This is the quote. "Apple is losing dominance and will likely delay launching

01:07:50   successor to the iPhone until at least September. Harrison Cho, an analyst for

01:07:55   soul-based Samsung Securities Company, said before the earnings release.

01:08:02   That guy's bonus this year is gonna be huge. Somebody on Twitter posted to me

01:08:12   Coca-Cola tastes like dog urine, says Pepsi in securities animals.

01:08:19   Coke's docked down.

01:08:23   Right.

01:08:26   Last week, you and Mike Lop—

01:08:31   Michael Lop.

01:08:32   Michael Lop were talking about the rumors of what we might expect.

01:08:38   Yeah.

01:08:40   I'm actually working on something for Macworld, so I'm teasing something that'll come out

01:08:44   next week.

01:08:49   Just that you guys – and I see everybody seems to have the same kind of feeling, just

01:08:54   that no one's that excited about what they've heard about.

01:08:59   Because the rumors are cheaper iPhone, television, and a watch.

01:09:10   And my point is kind of that to a certain degree, well, first of all, the rumored devices

01:09:20   that we had previously, the tablet, the phone, and the set-top box were like the big three

01:09:28   rumored devices of the previous decade.

01:09:31   But we had those for a decade.

01:09:34   stuff that stuff got started some of that stuff got started in the late 90s

01:09:40   and we had a long time to think about that stuff before it came out are you

01:09:46   saying that other companies had like cell phones since the 90s or you're

01:09:50   saying that no I'm saying the rumors state rumors that Apple was going to

01:09:53   make one dated yeah the tap that at least what your point yeah the tap right

01:09:56   the rumors about Apple date back that far right the tablet and at least the

01:10:01   tablet and the set-top box date back that far. The phone got started a little bit later.

01:10:08   And then the other thing I was thinking is that even then, a lot of people didn't necessarily

01:10:16   think that they would be that great. That Apple would have that much to... I mean, I

01:10:22   know people who really like Apple who didn't think that Apple really was going to bring

01:10:27   that much to a phone.

01:10:28   Right.

01:10:29   But on the other hand, the other difference I see too though is that there were a lot

01:10:35   of people who said, "I don't see what Apple's going to bring to a phone."

01:10:37   But there was also the large consensus that all phones sucked.

01:10:41   Right?

01:10:42   That, "My God, these phones are terrible."

01:10:46   Especially phones that tried to do anything more than just be phones.

01:10:51   Anything more than telephone calls.

01:10:53   Anything more than that.

01:10:54   They were just abysmal.

01:10:55   So there was this consensus that, my God, this is horrible,

01:10:58   and Apple come rescue us.

01:11:00   Whereas that's why I think there's so little excitement

01:11:03   about watches, for example.

01:11:05   Nobody is saying, my God, I can't find a good watch.

01:11:09   I can't find a watch that I like.

01:11:12   Yeah, but as you've noted, it may not be a watch at all.

01:11:16   Right.

01:11:17   It could be something--

01:11:18   I think that's the best way to think of it,

01:11:19   if there's any truth to it, is that something

01:11:22   that you might wear, you might even wear it on your wrist.

01:11:25   But I don't think thinking of it as a watch is the right way to go.

01:11:28   And it's probably true in hindsight that you shouldn't think of the iPhone as a phone.

01:11:32   Right.

01:11:33   Right?

01:11:34   It's really, you know, it goes back to that Clayton Christensen thing where he, you know,

01:11:39   admits that it was like this huge error he made when the iPhone was introduced that that's

01:11:44   the innovator's dilemma guy where he didn't think it was going to change the industry

01:11:48   because the disruption always comes from the low end and the iPhone was this super high-end

01:11:53   phone.

01:11:54   the mistake was it wasn't really a high-end phone. It was a super low-end portable computer.

01:11:58   It was this way too small, way too crappy portable computer. But because it was so crazy

01:12:03   small and you'd have it everywhere, it completely disrupted the computer industry by way of the

01:12:09   phone industry. I think it's that sort of thing. It might tell you time, but it's not really a watch.

01:12:15   Yeah, I hardly ever talk on my iPhone.

01:12:18   Really, I seriously--

01:12:19   And the other thing too, and that's the other thing too with the--

01:12:22   Oh, my god, I told you before, I can't even hear people on my phone.

01:12:26   It's like cell networks.

01:12:27   Even when you upgrade to-- I upgraded from AT&T to Verizon when the iPhone 5 came out,

01:12:32   and my phone calls all sounded better.

01:12:34   I was like, "Yes, I now have better sounding phone calls consistently."

01:12:37   And then I realized that they still sound terrible.

01:12:41   Like, a perfect connection on a cell phone call.

01:12:45   It still is like really crap audio.

01:12:48   But in researching this piece that I was writing, I found some great claim chowder for you.

01:12:54   Ooh.

01:12:55   Ooh, well, let's hear it.

01:12:56   So this is back in 2002.

01:12:57   That was not me.

01:12:58   Because that was like the—you jumped to the punchline.

01:13:03   Oh, it's me.

01:13:04   You wrote the punchline.

01:13:07   But John Markoff wrote this piece, and I think this was like the first mention of an iPhone,

01:13:13   and he wrote a piece in the New York Times about it and was talking about how, you know,

01:13:17   we'd have apps for, you know, email and Sherlock and things like that.

01:13:22   And you wrote, "These are applications, not technologies.

01:13:26   The article seems to insinuate that Apple could make Sherlock run on a cell phone.

01:13:30   That's impossible unless the cell phone were actually running Mac OS X, which is definitely

01:13:35   impossible.

01:13:36   You know, a lot of people trot that's actually the one I was worried you were going to bring

01:13:40   up.

01:13:41   A lot of people trot that out.

01:13:42   And I don't want to seem defensive, but I meant it was an article that claimed that

01:13:46   that device was like in the labs and like ready to come out in 2003.

01:13:51   And that's where you're right.

01:13:52   Right.

01:13:53   I wasn't saying that it was always going to be impossible.

01:13:54   In 2002, it was not.

01:13:55   That it would never be possible.

01:13:57   I was saying it was impossible in 2003 to make a phone that ran a cut down version of

01:14:02   Mac OS X.

01:14:03   I still stand by that, that I was right.

01:14:05   And it certainly didn't come out.

01:14:08   The difference between 2002 and 2007

01:14:11   was huge in terms of what was possible.

01:14:14   So I don't think that counts.

01:14:15   I think that counts as a median right.

01:14:16   But people love to trot that one out and act

01:14:18   as though I'm the big dumb dumb.

01:14:20   I just wanted to bring that up to get you back

01:14:23   for your Ichiro crack.

01:14:24   Planning that for like two or three weeks, whatever it was.

01:14:33   That's impossible. Remember Sherlock?

01:14:35   Yeah. Yeah.

01:14:37   Was Sherlock kind of a

01:14:41   predecessor to Siri?

01:14:43   Kind of. Yeah. Yeah, definitely.

01:14:45   Right? Like, asking for sports scores and weather and stuff like that.

01:14:49   Like, sort of componentized data.

01:14:53   Yeah, they could have used that name.

01:14:55   Yeah.

01:14:57   It would have to have, like, a British accent, though.

01:14:59   accent though but that was an idea that they kind of well at least the people

01:15:03   said that they cop from somebody else right right Watson Watson right right

01:15:11   yeah so do you want to talk about insta paper I guess so I I don't know what to

01:15:20   say about it really I mean so then I think Marco announced yesterday that he

01:15:25   has sold Instapaper to, or quote-unquote "controlling interest" in Instapaper, I

01:15:30   don't even know what that means, to Betaworks, the guys who bought Dig.

01:15:34   Apparently they're doing good stuff there. I don't know. Some people said, I haven't really

01:15:39   paid attention. I haven't paid attention to it either, but that's what I keep

01:15:41   hearing, and it seems like they want to step in to fill the gap that

01:15:45   Google made by killing Reeder. Right, and I do, if that's true, and that they're

01:15:52   going to make something that people would consider a replacement for Google

01:15:56   Reader, in other words reading people's feeds in the aggregate, you know, RSS

01:16:01   feeds. It certainly makes a lot of sense. It really, I hate to use the word, I think

01:16:07   for the second time this week, but it does seem like there's an awful lot of

01:16:10   synergy there with something like Instapaper. Like a read loader service that nicely formats articles in a consistent way and stuff

01:16:19   because it seems like you could cut down on the whole jumping through hoops to

01:16:26   actually get the thing into your Instapaper. Yeah. So, I mean, I always get

01:16:33   nervous when these things happen, but because you never know how it's

01:16:37   gonna end up. Right, and you know, I mean, I think Marco in his

01:16:41   typical style, you know, was very honest about it. I thought, you know, his

01:16:45   explanation was, look, this--

01:16:48   and I forgot.

01:16:49   It's one of those things where four or five years goes by

01:16:52   and you forget just how different things were.

01:16:55   I've totally forgot that Instapaper started as a website.

01:17:00   Oh, I didn't even--

01:17:01   Because I never used it.

01:17:03   I don't think I ever used it as a website.

01:17:05   To me, it's always been about reading on the iPhone

01:17:10   and eventually the iPad.

01:17:13   Totally forgot.

01:17:14   To me, the app was Instapaper.

01:17:16   I really forgot that he started as a website first and then did the app.

01:17:23   But he said in the years since, it's gotten so competitive.

01:17:27   And he's up against these VC-funded dipshits who are giving everything away for free and

01:17:38   have like $45 million in VC money to fund it all.

01:17:43   So there's definitely a-- it's a tough competitive angle,

01:17:46   right?

01:17:47   I mean, this is great.

01:17:48   This is so great.

01:17:48   You're going to love this if you haven't noticed.

01:17:50   Somebody pointed out yesterday in the aftermath

01:17:52   of Marco's announcement about this, a Hacker News thread.

01:17:55   And you know it's going to be good on Hacker News.

01:17:59   Where somebody on Hacker News was comparing Instapaper,

01:18:03   which I think is like $3.99, to one of the other competitors

01:18:08   that is-- they're giving the whole thing away for free.

01:18:11   I don't know if it was Pocket or Readability or one of them.

01:18:14   But they were like, "So Pocket is free and Instapaper is $4.

01:18:20   Is it really – if it costs four times as much, is it really four times better?"

01:18:30   Because if it's not, I don't see how that's justified, which is really good because you

01:18:38   None of those guys on Hacker News think they're good at math.

01:18:42   And even-- it's funny because it would be a little--

01:18:45   it would be like a slight chuckle for me,

01:18:47   even if it was a $1 to $4 comparison.

01:18:50   And the guy tried to make an argument that it would have to be four times

01:18:54   better apt to justify being $4 versus $1, which is not the way decisions are

01:19:01   made.

01:19:02   But the four times zero thing was pretty good, I thought.

01:19:08   Yeah, four times as much right? I

01:19:10   Do get nervous though, I mean because it's you know, I'm Marco

01:19:15   I was so Marco said a that you know to compete he need he would seriously compete against these guys

01:19:20   He'd kind of need to hire a team

01:19:22   And expand because one person can't really keep up with

01:19:27   These other competitors that have teams of people working on it and that's not what he wants to do. He does not want to

01:19:33   Become a manager and hire a team and have employees and stuff like that

01:19:37   I mean, I certainly appreciate firsthand the advantages of being a one-person operation

01:19:46   and not having any employees and stuff like that.

01:19:49   And number two, that he just wanted to move on and do something new, that he wants to

01:19:53   do something new.

01:19:54   So hopefully, he did pick a good home for the app.

01:19:59   I certainly use it enough where I'm going to be somewhat upset if it somehow falls into

01:20:05   disarray.

01:20:06   Yeah.

01:20:07   There's a difference.

01:20:08   For better or worse, there's a different mentality

01:20:10   between being able to create an app like that

01:20:13   and then wanting to maintain it forever.

01:20:18   And it seems like a lot of these-- I don't have an ounce

01:20:25   of the kind of ability that Marco's got.

01:20:29   But that's what happens when these guys-- it's a lot of fun

01:20:32   to make something, and then it's a lot less fun to just sit

01:20:34   there and--

01:20:37   I realize how much affection I have for Instapaper.

01:20:40   If I ever get on an airplane, like a Wi-Fi-less airplane,

01:20:44   and then realize as I take my devices out

01:20:46   that I hadn't turned any of them on before getting on the plane,

01:20:50   and that my Instapaper is not up to date.

01:20:52   Because that's-- I'll just sit there with my--

01:20:56   no connection, just sit there and hit the reload button

01:20:59   in Instapaper and be like, give me those articles I queued up

01:21:02   to read on this flight.

01:21:03   Yeah, I don't know what else to say about it. I mean, you know, congratulations. I hope

01:21:10   it works out.

01:21:12   Yeah, no, and yeah. It's certainly good for Marco.

01:21:16   Yeah, and I do think, you know, and I suspect that it was, I don't know, and I trust Marco

01:21:23   and I trust his judgment. You know, I think he, you know, it wasn't like he was forced

01:21:28   to do this. So I feel like it was measured and deliberate. So I think it will probably

01:21:38   work out pretty well.

01:21:39   Tim Cynova Yeah. You don't want it to end up like George

01:21:42   Lucas.

01:21:43   Dave Asprey I don't know about that. What do you think?

01:21:47   How do you mean by that?

01:21:49   Tim Cynova Just hanging on to something for too long

01:21:50   and ruining it.

01:21:51   Dave Asprey Oh, right, right, right. The Jar Jar Binks

01:21:54   version of Instapaper.

01:21:55   Tim Cynova Yeah. You have Fire Up Instapaper and there's

01:21:58   a little cartoon idiot I don't even know what that would be what would what would

01:22:06   be charge our version of insta papers be the Phantom Menace person of insta paper

01:22:11   no I don't even want to think about it yeah I don't know too horrible to behold

01:22:16   insta paper on your watch you can see that trying to think is there anything

01:22:24   new anything else I guess the other thing would be want to go back to the

01:22:29   call is that Tim Cook did tease a quote unquote or do you say categories plural

01:22:35   new proud product categories yeah which I don't think got as much attention as

01:22:42   it deserved like I kind of feel like people glossed over that like he that

01:22:45   does not mean a new iPhone or a new iPad that means you know a new brand new

01:22:50   revision of the whole a new thing like the iPad well I think it's because

01:22:55   everybody knows it's not true because innovation is dead at Apple yeah so

01:22:59   that's why nobody that's why nobody paid attention did you listen to the call

01:23:03   yeah I work from home now yeah it's what's his name the team nothing else

01:23:11   Jean Munster yeah that was a funny like he came it's like he came in late cuz he

01:23:20   asked his question. These guys get like one question a quarter and basically,

01:23:26   Munster wastes it asking what he said earlier. Tim, did you say earlier there would be new products?

01:23:34   Tim Cynova New product categories.

01:23:36   Tim Cynova Like he caught on that it was a new product category.

01:23:39   Tim Cynova And Tim leans at, "Yes, that's what I said."

01:23:43   Tim Cynova Yeah. It reminds me of Sticker Guy from the

01:23:49   thing years ago, I forget what event that was. It was some event at Apple's Town Hall

01:23:54   for like IMAX or something and the guy who asked the question about why they don't

01:23:57   put Intel inside stickers all over their computers. Yeah, Gene Munster. Did you see my tweet?

01:24:06   Probably, which one? After the conference call I tweeted like a what was his name

01:24:19   Howard Hughes type scenario. Oh yeah. Gee Monster in 2037. All alone in a dark room

01:24:26   thin gray long gray beard surrounded by bottles of his own urine

01:24:32   and muttering, "Apple TV, way of the future."

01:24:37   He answered me on Twitter.

01:24:38   He is a good sport.

01:24:39   He was like, he gave me an @ reply and was like, "You'll see."

01:24:43   The thing is, if you don't know, is that Gene Munster, I forget who he works for, but he's

01:24:49   an Apple analyst.

01:24:50   He's been an Apple analyst for a long time.

01:24:53   He's been saying that Apple is going to come out with their own TV sets, not Apple TV,

01:24:58   Apple branded TV sets for six, seven years. And he's never quite said, "Hey, it's coming

01:25:06   next month." But he's more or less been saying that next year is the year that Apple's going

01:25:10   to do a TV set for about six or seven years and has never, ever lost the fervor for it.

01:25:18   Right. Which I guess you have to admire his consistency.

01:25:24   Yeah, well and it's another one of those things sort of like the the claim chatter you pulled on me where I

01:25:30   you know

01:25:33   If they did come out with an apple-branded television set next year and everyone see see Gene Munster was right

01:25:39   Well, it he wasn't right in

01:25:41   2007 when he said that they're coming out with an Apple TV next year, right like everybody sort of condenses history, but no

01:25:48   That's my I said in 2007 that you're coming out with a TV next year and then it comes out in 2014

01:25:53   That's not right.

01:25:54   That's my theory of the infallibility of Apple rumors is that as long as Apple comes

01:26:01   out with something remotely like what you said it would come out with next year, even

01:26:06   if it's 40 years later, then you can claim that you're right.

01:26:12   You know what?

01:26:13   The same thing to some degree possibly applies with Google Glass too.

01:26:20   I have to write about it on Daring Fireball because I keep making a shit out of Google

01:26:23   Glass.

01:26:24   And I don't mean to say that I don't think heads-up displays are ever going to be a thing

01:26:29   and that they're not cool technology and that I'm never going to buy one or whatever.

01:26:34   It sounds, obviously, clearly, there's a lot of, everybody who's seen Minority Report,

01:26:38   there's a lot of potential there.

01:26:40   I'm saying these Google Glasses, the ones that they've got right now that they're selling

01:26:45   is fifteen hundred dollar developer units and and that stupid thing that it

01:26:49   puts up in the corner of your eye and the way they look

01:26:52   i'm saying these google glasses the ones right now

01:26:55   ones that they're gonna you know the first batch are coming out are stupid

01:26:58   and no one's gonna buy them

01:27:00   and that they're creepy

01:27:02   well they're too expensive, well at least if the price stays what it is it's too

01:27:05   expensive that to really... right but then you know really catch them now

01:27:09   when like the oculus rift thing comes out and you can play xbox games on it

01:27:14   really cool heads-up display and have this incredibly

01:27:16   immersive experience, people are going to say,

01:27:19   see, you're wrong about heads-up displays or whatever.

01:27:22   And I'm not saying there's never going to be a use or a purpose

01:27:25   or there's not going to be a call.

01:27:27   I'm saying these Google, this specific product

01:27:30   that they've shown us.

01:27:31   And this is the difference-- we think

01:27:33   we've talked about this before-- but this

01:27:34   is the difference between Apple and Google,

01:27:36   is that Google does a lot of its product development

01:27:38   out in the open.

01:27:40   kind of drags us all through the mess of getting it to the point where it's a cool product

01:27:47   before an Apple does all this behind the scenes and only ships it when it's finished and polished.

01:27:53   Right. So, you know, and then, you know, all credit to them if you want to show it, you

01:27:57   know, you get credit for showing it.

01:27:58   Yeah, I mean, and I don't think that's bad necessarily. You know, it's just the way they

01:28:02   do it.

01:28:03   Right. It's like the people, there's still people who hang on to the idea that Bill Gates

01:28:06   was right about tablets.

01:28:10   I mean, nobody was saying he was wrong that in theory, a tablet

01:28:13   computer would be cool, or the way of the future,

01:28:17   to quote Howard Hughes.

01:28:19   But you don't really get credit for the Windows tablets

01:28:23   that came out in 2002, because they were horrible.

01:28:27   I mean, there's some sort of credit

01:28:29   for at least being on the record and trying early,

01:28:32   but you don't get credit for the iPad,

01:28:35   because you ship the whatever the thing was called in 2003.

01:28:39   Yeah.

01:28:40   What was the other one today Google Glass related?

01:28:44   It was Eric Schmidt at some conference and he called, he admitted that Google Glass was

01:28:50   weird and inappropriate.

01:28:52   You do have to give the guy credit.

01:28:55   He is, in some ways, he's actually amazingly honest.

01:28:59   You do get a lot of honest because the most honest thing he's ever said and it's, you

01:29:03   know it is it gets exactly to what I don't like about Google it was that the

01:29:07   the thing he said a year or two ago about that Google's Google's purpose is

01:29:11   to get right up against the creepy line yeah right I mean at least he admitted

01:29:17   it I mean they do know so credit to him you know who to Google for towing the

01:29:22   creepy line but at least he does admit it do you remember this I got a good one

01:29:28   Yeah. Yeah, I definitely remember that. And didn't he – I thought I saw this someplace.

01:29:36   The other –

01:29:37   Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google, has described his company's policy. "Google policy is

01:29:42   to get right up to the creepy line and not cross it." That's a quote. Like, I do

01:29:50   feel like there's this big divide. And there's a lot of people who really do like Google

01:29:55   and you know and I'm glad they read my site and stuff it I feel like they read it though just to get angry

01:30:00   But you know if you don't if you don't see how that's a weird thing for the

01:30:07   CEO and or former CEO and and and chairman of the board of a company to say then I mean we're

01:30:13   We're never really gonna agree on much

01:30:16   Didn't you say something about how

01:30:21   Also, it's like if you think that it's creepy too bad because it's coming anyway

01:30:25   About teenagers changing their names remember that one. Oh, yeah. Could you look it up? Look at him? You gotta read it

01:30:35   My keyboards too loud

01:30:39   Every young person one day he was talking about this that our job is to get right up

01:30:48   To the creepy line and not cross it

01:30:50   It was talking about the possibility of chip implants that you would put under your skin that Google would provide you in the future

01:30:56   With your permission you give us more information about you about your friends and we can improve the quality of our searches

01:31:03   We don't need you to type at all. We know where you are. We know where you've been

01:31:07   We can more or less know what you're thinking about

01:31:10   That's over the creepy line

01:31:16   No, that's right up against that's the best part is he thinks that's not yeah. Yeah be like

01:31:22   He predicts apparently seriously that every young person one day will be entitled

01:31:28   Automatically to change his or her name on reaching adulthood in order to disown youthful hijinks stored on their friends social media sites. I

01:31:36   Do think I mean I do think that I am glad that I grew up before

01:31:45   So this technology was available

01:31:47   Yeah, because I would have been reckless I would have been bad

01:31:53   Yeah, I would have been pretty right and now I've let me you know

01:31:55   I got it, you know

01:31:56   I got in right at the right time where all this stuff became available when I was already told I

01:32:02   Know I you know, I think though that's so ubiquitous though

01:32:08   I don't feel though that like the future politicians of America need you know

01:32:12   the 15 year old today who's going to be running for the Senate in California

01:32:19   35 years from now I don't think he has to worry about his tweets because who

01:32:23   you know who the hell is yeah who is not going to everybody's gonna have

01:32:28   something tweets for whenever 15 you know Google ball that's what I would

01:32:35   like to know though if he thinks knowing where we've been where we are and more

01:32:40   us knowing what we're thinking about is up to but not over the creepy line. I would love to know

01:32:45   like what's the discussions that they've had where they're like well that's over the creepy line. I

01:32:49   would love to see that they have the whiteboard with the well that's over the creepy line we

01:32:54   can't do that. I would love to know. I think that would be so great. I wonder if they have

01:32:58   a specification for that. Right. We have a guess we have a pretty good guess what you look like naked.

01:33:08   Looks a little bit like this.

01:33:10   [laughs]

01:33:15   All right, I say we call it a show.

01:33:16   Anything else? Nothing else to cover.

01:33:18   No. John Molt's very nice website. Dot net.

01:33:22   Thank you.

01:33:23   Thanks for having me.

01:33:24   That's where everybody can get their fill of molts.

01:33:28   [laughs]

01:33:29   All five of you.