The Talk Show

9: Command Versus Splat, with Dan Frommer


00:00:00   - It started in kindergarten.

00:00:02   There was a loudspeaker,

00:00:03   this was like the second day of kindergarten,

00:00:05   and they said, Daniel Frommer, come to the,

00:00:09   whatever, the office.

00:00:10   Your parents are here to pick you up.

00:00:12   And I had no idea who they were talking to.

00:00:15   - So you didn't go.

00:00:16   - No, I didn't go.

00:00:17   I waited for like half an hour and I was crying

00:00:20   and I'm like, what's going on here?

00:00:21   And finally my mom showed up in the classroom.

00:00:24   She's like, I've been waiting here this whole time.

00:00:26   - I've never had a reason

00:00:27   to pronounce your surname before though.

00:00:29   I did not know that it was Frommer and not Frommer

00:00:32   because it's F-R-O-M-M-E-R.

00:00:36   - And I kind of roll with it.

00:00:37   I mean, it doesn't really matter that much.

00:00:39   I think that, you know, I have Fromdome

00:00:41   has been my online identity since like 1995.

00:00:45   - That makes 10 times more sense to me now though.

00:00:47   - Yeah. - As of today,

00:00:48   the fact that your handle like on Twitter, et cetera,

00:00:51   is Fromdome makes 10 times more sense to me.

00:00:54   Never really got it before.

00:00:55   I always thought you were a little,

00:00:57   maybe a little kooky or something.

00:00:58   (laughing)

00:00:59   You know what I do get?

00:01:00   I do get a significant amount,

00:01:02   especially like at a restaurant or something like that.

00:01:04   I do get grubber.

00:01:06   Which never, see now that doesn't make any sense to me

00:01:09   because I've only got one B and the rules of pronunciation.

00:01:13   It seems very clear to me that you should default to Gruber.

00:01:16   - That would make sense, but maybe, I don't know.

00:01:20   Fairly common, I would say.

00:01:21   I don't know.

00:01:22   - Yeah, but you know, I do sympathize though.

00:01:24   I see the confusion.

00:01:26   Anyway, I'm here with Dan Fromer.

00:01:28   You've had a busy year.

00:01:30   When did you leave Business Insider?

00:01:34   - That was last June.

00:01:37   - So it's about a year, that's exactly what I thought.

00:01:40   - It's been a year, yeah.

00:01:41   - And that is where I first got to know your work

00:01:44   on the Apple Beat, more or less, at Ali Insider.

00:01:48   - I think you linked to me the first month

00:01:50   that we started the site, and I think you ridiculed

00:01:55   something I wrote. I found the link not so long ago and I was like, "He was actually

00:02:01   right," but it didn't matter. It was cool. That's when I started reading Daring

00:02:06   Fireball 2. It was 2007 when we started. It was then Silicon Alley Insider. It was supposed

00:02:12   to be a blog about the New York tech scene. Then about three days in, we realized that

00:02:19   most of our traffic was coming from outside of New York. A lot of our best work was about

00:02:23   Google and Apple and Microsoft and the big tech companies.

00:02:26   So we're kind of stuck with the weird name for a long time.

00:02:30   But then they grew the site into kind of, well now as you know, it's like kind of

00:02:35   Huffington Post of all business stuff.

00:02:37   But …

00:02:38   It's kind of all over the place.

00:02:40   Yeah.

00:02:41   It's a good idea though because I do think, and I know this, you know, working out of

00:02:46   Philadelphia that for the most part, it doesn't matter where you're working.

00:02:49   In some ways, it's good to be removed from anything.

00:02:54   I find it easier to concentrate.

00:02:56   I don't have face-to-face meetings with people

00:02:58   and stuff like that.

00:02:59   But in other ways, it is good to be

00:03:01   physically close to sources.

00:03:03   - Yeah, I personally struggle a little

00:03:06   with the office environment.

00:03:07   My first job was at Forbes, and I quickly got distracted,

00:03:12   and it was basically spending like 2/3 of the day

00:03:15   just goofing around talking to people.

00:03:16   So it's nice to kind of be removed sometimes.

00:03:21   The first three or four months I was doing SplatF,

00:03:24   I was getting so much work done because I was by myself

00:03:26   and no one was bothering me.

00:03:28   But at the same time, it's also cool to go out at nighttime

00:03:31   and last night I went to a dinner with a VC

00:03:34   and nine entrepreneur startup type people

00:03:38   and it was awesome.

00:03:39   It was like, wow, these people are all in the same room

00:03:40   and it's kind of cool being here with them.

00:03:42   So I don't know how much you want to talk about

00:03:44   what I'm doing. I joined ReadWriteWeb late last year as a contributor. One of the things

00:03:50   I'm doing there is looking at technology beyond just the typical tech industry, how

00:03:57   it applies to governments and civilization and the future as a whole.

00:04:05   The story I'm actually working on right now is about the data center industry in Iceland,

00:04:12   how they're basically, you know, Iceland totally screwed its economy a couple years ago and

00:04:18   they have all this renewable green power that's super cheap and what are they going to do

00:04:22   with it?

00:04:23   Well, they have these aluminum smelting plants which are not very nice and now they're trying

00:04:27   to rebuild themselves partially with data centers.

00:04:31   So it was cool.

00:04:32   I got to go to Iceland for a week for work and go underneath the waterfall in a hydroelectric

00:04:37   power plant and tour this brand new data center.

00:04:40   So that story should be coming out next week and that's some of the cool stuff that I've

00:04:46   gotten to do lately which is very fortunate.

00:04:48   I saw, I forget the name of it, I saw a documentary, I'm almost certain I got it through iTunes,

00:04:54   on the Iceland economy and how they were kind of ground zero for the whole 2008 worldwide

00:05:04   meltdown.

00:05:05   it was the epitome of everything that was wrong

00:05:08   before 2008 and the fact that Iceland is so small.

00:05:13   - Exactly.

00:05:14   It's like the population is the size of St. Louis,

00:05:18   but it's a whole country.

00:05:19   They have a president and a government and all this stuff.

00:05:23   They're playing way outside of their league.

00:05:27   There's actually a great book by Michael Lewis,

00:05:29   the guy who did Moneyball and The Big Short.

00:05:34   His book is called Boomerang and the first chapter

00:05:36   is just about how ridiculously out of control

00:05:39   the Icelandic banking business got

00:05:42   and that's pretty much what shattered their economy.

00:05:44   So it was cool going there.

00:05:47   It's kind of a weird place.

00:05:48   It's like light 24 hours a day during the summer

00:05:51   so I'm standing there, 2 a.m. on Friday night

00:05:56   having a little fun and eating my kebab sandwich

00:06:00   and the sun is out.

00:06:01   It's kind of weird. - That's mind blowing.

00:06:02   - Two a.m. in the sun is out.

00:06:05   I don't know, man, talk about jet lag.

00:06:07   - No, it was weird.

00:06:08   Although the funny thing is though,

00:06:10   the trip from New York is actually the same length

00:06:13   as basically flying to San Francisco.

00:06:15   So it's not even that,

00:06:17   it was kind of a lame overnight flight.

00:06:20   It was like I got there and my brain still thought

00:06:21   it was like two in the morning or something.

00:06:24   - I'm going down to like,

00:06:30   this is like second grade writing a report level

00:06:33   of knowledge of Iceland.

00:06:35   But is it true, I seem to recall this from grade school,

00:06:38   that Iceland is the beautiful one

00:06:42   and Greenland is the one that's desolate and icy

00:06:45   and that the Vikings gave them the opposite name

00:06:48   so that anybody who wanted to invade

00:06:50   would go to the wrong one.

00:06:51   And what a cool name for a country, Iceland.

00:06:54   - But they're a little defensive about it

00:06:57   because it hurts them in the sense that people think

00:07:01   it's inhospitable there and icy,

00:07:03   and so they're almost a little defensive.

00:07:07   They're like, no, no, no, no, it's not icy here, it's nice.

00:07:09   - Right, but they should roll with it though,

00:07:11   'cause it's a badass name for a country.

00:07:13   - It is, they should.

00:07:14   I'd like to see that.

00:07:15   - And Fireland is still available,

00:07:19   although Josh Allen has long had that as his website.

00:07:26   Josh Allen, what he should do is he should get one of the,

00:07:29   do one of those things where you get like an oil rig

00:07:31   out in the middle of the ocean and make that a country.

00:07:34   - Or talk to Larry Ellison, do a joint venture.

00:07:37   - Yeah, yeah, exactly.

00:07:38   Get Larry Ellis to do that.

00:07:40   - He would, I think he would be up for that.

00:07:41   I don't know if you watched the video of him

00:07:43   at the All Things D conference, but he is hilarious.

00:07:46   I had not, I did not expect that at all.

00:07:48   I mean, I expected, I know he's like,

00:07:50   he's friends with Steve Jobs, kind of a mean guy,

00:07:53   but he was hilarious.

00:07:54   He was just talking trash on everyone and in a really funny way.

00:07:58   It was pretty awesome.

00:07:59   Dave: Yeah.

00:08:00   And I'm with you because Oracle is just – I know exactly what they – well, I don't

00:08:05   know exactly what they do.

00:08:06   In the 10,000-foot perspective, I know what Oracle does.

00:08:09   They make databases and enterprise software.

00:08:13   But I just had never had any interest in it.

00:08:15   So I don't really follow them that well.

00:08:17   And I know that he's got a reputation for being a personality and that he's a bit

00:08:22   of a womanizer.

00:08:24   I know he's into the yachting, the yacht racing, and stuff like that.

00:08:28   This is a guy who with a couple of billion dollars knows what to do with a couple of

00:08:31   billion dollars.

00:08:33   I knew all that and I did know that he apparently was one of Steve Jobs, if not best friend,

00:08:40   one of his very closest friends.

00:08:42   But seeing that video, you can see why.

00:08:46   That's a guy who could keep Steve Jobs engaged.

00:08:49   Another reason why I could see is that when he was talking about his products, he knew

00:08:53   them front to back in the way that Steve Jobs also did that most tech execs just have no

00:08:58   idea.

00:08:59   It was that video you shared a while ago, I think it was Gil Amelio talking about some

00:09:05   of the old Apple stuff.

00:09:07   Clearly, someone gave him some talking points and maybe a deck or something and he's just

00:09:12   kind of trying to say stuff, words basically.

00:09:16   Whereas Larry was talking about these products like he designed them, like he was still coding

00:09:21   them or something like that.

00:09:22   - And he knew, he knows, you could see that he knows

00:09:26   how Oracle stuff can beat the competition

00:09:29   and how to spin it in a way that it makes it seem

00:09:32   like you're an idiot if you're going with anything

00:09:33   but the Oracle solution.

00:09:35   - I'm interested in seeing how they,

00:09:38   obviously the enterprise is their big thing.

00:09:41   I'm interested in seeing, that's one of those companies

00:09:43   that has the resources and the ambition,

00:09:46   and I thought Cisco might be like this too,

00:09:47   that they would eventually try to do something

00:09:50   more consumer, either with tablets or phones

00:09:55   or something like that.

00:09:57   Cisco tried with the flip thing and totally screwed that up.

00:09:59   - Oh my God, was that like the worst?

00:10:01   It was like, somebody should do a follow-up on that

00:10:04   because at the time, actually I thought

00:10:08   that they maybe bought them a little bit too late,

00:10:10   that it seemed like maybe flip's moment,

00:10:13   like their opportunity had passed.

00:10:15   - But you also think the iPod's opportunity has passed,

00:10:20   and they're still probably selling more iPods than any other company that's selling tablets

00:10:25   right now or something like that.

00:10:27   So.

00:10:28   Dave: No, I thought it's the same thing with Cisco and the Flip.

00:10:32   I thought maybe what they were – I thought what they would do is start with the Flip

00:10:35   and turn it into a phone.

00:10:37   And if – or if not an actual cell phone, at least internet-enabled because that's

00:10:42   what Cisco does, right?

00:10:44   So that's what I thought.

00:10:45   I just thought – I mean, whether it will be an actual telephone or not, I don't know.

00:10:49   But it's got to at least have networking and hopefully like 3G networking so you can like

00:10:53   upload stuff from anywhere.

00:10:55   Right?

00:10:56   And, and like almost like maybe like, you know, in broad terms, turn these flip video

00:11:01   cameras into the video equivalent of Instagram, right out of the box.

00:11:06   As soon as you open it up, you can get videos from others and watch them on the thing.

00:11:10   And as soon as you take videos, you can share them, you know, something like that.

00:11:13   And instead, I don't know what the hell they did.

00:11:15   And that's the thing we keep coming back to,

00:11:20   which is that the hardware companies

00:11:22   really struggle with software,

00:11:24   and that's where Apple, I think,

00:11:25   and some of the companies like Instagram

00:11:28   are really fortunate,

00:11:30   is that they don't suck at software.

00:11:32   They're really awesome at it.

00:11:34   I mean, if you look at Cisco,

00:11:35   the way I used to look,

00:11:37   so covering Cisco was one of my beats at Forbes,

00:11:38   like long ago, my first tech writing job.

00:11:41   And they would do an acquisition every two weeks,

00:11:42   It was random stuff. It was like security cameras and all kinds of crazy stuff.

00:11:46   The justification for all this was, well, Cisco's core business is still selling routers and switches.

00:11:53   So any time they can create more internet traffic, more demand for bandwidth, Cisco wins.

00:11:59   Same way, any time Apple can use iTunes to sell more iPods and iPhones and iPads, Apple wins.

00:12:05   Apple wins.

00:12:06   So that's why with Flip, I'm like, oh, this is exactly what you just said.

00:12:10   This creates more video traffic.

00:12:13   You'll need a better Linksys router at home and your ISP will need to spend $40 billion

00:12:18   on more Cisco switches and stuff like that.

00:12:21   But then the software comes into it and that's where they just got hosed.

00:12:25   the fact that camera camcorder is an app on an iPhone now,

00:12:30   completely, beyond the fact that it makes

00:12:35   the flip camera itself useless,

00:12:38   Cisco can't build really cool software

00:12:40   to put on the flip either, so.

00:12:42   - Right, and it didn't take long,

00:12:44   and I forget which iPhone it was,

00:12:46   but it wasn't the first one or two,

00:12:48   I mean, the first one didn't even shoot video,

00:12:50   unless I'm having a stroke here.

00:12:51   - No, no, no, it was a 3GS was the one

00:12:53   that started with the video,

00:12:55   That's when it kind of started, although it wasn't that good.

00:12:57   And it wasn't HD yet.

00:12:59   And then the next one, I guess the iPhone 4 shot HD video.

00:13:04   And that's where it got close.

00:13:06   And then you could do like a comparison between the iPhone 4's video and the then top of the

00:13:11   line Flip HD video.

00:13:13   And the Flip one, I remember, had better color, especially outside.

00:13:16   I mean, most people would agree it had better color.

00:13:19   It looked a little bit less camera phony.

00:13:23   But it was really small.

00:13:25   I mean, like in the grand scheme of video quality,

00:13:28   it was close.

00:13:29   It was close enough that they were clearly

00:13:32   in the same ballpark.

00:13:33   And just being in the same ballpark,

00:13:34   it's like why in the world would you carry this thing

00:13:36   that's an inch thick

00:13:38   if you've already got your phone with you?

00:13:39   - The other thing I really liked is that

00:13:41   it automatically rotated the video for you.

00:13:44   So it was true widescreen and not what I call

00:13:48   tall screen video, which is kind of,

00:13:52   it looks fine when you're watching it back on an iPhone,

00:13:54   but the minute it goes on YouTube or something like that.

00:13:57   - Yeah, no, totally.

00:13:58   - It's absurd.

00:13:59   - But it's a nicer way to hold the device.

00:14:02   - Totally, exactly, yeah.

00:14:03   - Yeah, like I do kind of secretly wish

00:14:05   that Apple will figure out a way

00:14:06   to let you shoot a widescreen video

00:14:09   while holding the phone up and down.

00:14:13   - I thought about that the other day.

00:14:15   I don't know if they would do that.

00:14:16   That seems like one of those things where they're like,

00:14:18   "No, turn the phone."

00:14:20   I don't know.

00:14:21   - Yeah, well, I see it both ways,

00:14:22   because on the other hand,

00:14:23   it really makes intuitive sense that however you're holding the phone is

00:14:27   exactly how you're shooting the video.

00:14:29   Right, are they going to switch it for still pictures? No, because still pictures, a lot of them you do

00:14:33   one in

00:14:33   portrait format. So I want to talk to you about this Twitter stuff

00:14:38   because... Absolutely, I think it's the biggest... Let's talk about that.

00:14:40   Well, and this is something that you wrote at, you wrote this one at Splat F, right?

00:14:45   That's right. Well, I just want to mention this, this is another thing.

00:14:48   So when you left, you started Splat F right when you

00:14:52   left

00:14:53   Alley insider business insider, whatever the hell they call it, right or did you have it beforehand?

00:14:59   So I kind of got into tech writing by accident. I

00:15:02   Originally wanted to be a radio and TV reporter and I like I had our college radio show called from wing at the mouth from

00:15:09   Like 3 30 to 5 a.m. That was pretty sweet. And then I

00:15:12   Had a great internship at NPR station in Chicago where I was interviewing like Mayor Daley and Barack Obama and Rod

00:15:21   Blagojevich and all these political people.

00:15:23   Really?

00:15:24   Yeah, yeah.

00:15:25   That was like my first ... It was through my school, so it was kind of an internship,

00:15:28   but then I continued doing it during the summer.

00:15:30   That was really fun.

00:15:33   I needed to get out of Chicago.

00:15:35   I grew up there and I went to college there and it was time to get out.

00:15:38   I moved to New York and I applied to basically every job that existed.

00:15:42   I applied to work at Frommer's Travel and they thought it was a joke.

00:15:46   I think the first job interview I had in New York was at the Wall Street Journal for a

00:15:51   job that was basically copying and pasting stuff from the print CMS into the web CMS.

00:15:56   And I didn't work there.

00:15:58   I ended up getting a job at Forbes writing about tech.

00:16:01   So that's how I got into it.

00:16:02   But I always wanted to kind of start my own thing and do my own thing.

00:16:06   This is a story I've told a couple of times.

00:16:10   My dad was in the advertising industry in Chicago when I was growing up.

00:16:14   He left his big firm to start his own agency.

00:16:17   I thought that was really cool, working for yourself, small shop, a few people, get to

00:16:23   go on a three-week road trip around France if you want to in the summer, that kind of

00:16:26   stuff.

00:16:27   My goal was always to do something on my own.

00:16:31   The last year or so at business insider, I started to think about how I could plot my

00:16:39   exit there.

00:16:41   I wanted to start a bunch of sites.

00:16:44   I started this travel site in 2004, but I never really did anything with it.

00:16:48   I wanted to start a food site and a cooking show and all this stuff.

00:16:51   But I realized that the thing that I was most known for and probably did the best was the

00:16:57   tech stuff.

00:16:58   The first site I did after I left was Splat F. I did that pretty full-time for like four

00:17:06   months.

00:17:08   I wrote three or four long posts a day and it was fun.

00:17:14   And then the company that I was working with for the ads, this company called Say Media,

00:17:20   they acquired ReadWriteWeb and they wanted me to work with them on that so I joined them

00:17:24   as a contributor for that too.

00:17:26   So I'm kind of all over the place right now.

00:17:28   I'm actually starting also another company this summer doing travel apps for the iPhone.

00:17:34   But I don't have anything to say about that yet because I just started like two days ago.

00:17:38   So anyway, so we were talking about SplatF and Twitter.

00:17:42   But…

00:17:43   Well, and the one thing I just… before we go on to the Twitter stuff, I thought it was

00:17:46   an interesting name when you started it because I always called… it's the references to

00:17:51   the cloverleaf on the command key.

00:17:53   Exactly.

00:17:54   Some people call that Splat and they'll say it like to do command F. I say command

00:17:59   though.

00:18:00   Like if you want to do the shortcut for find, I have always said command F.

00:18:04   So and that was breaking a habit I had from my childhood of saying open up yeah open apple f

00:18:12   and then I really really had to I forget when I broke that habit but it was it was like in the

00:18:17   late 90s and I finally switched to saying command command f command g for find again uh I've never

00:18:23   heard splat I've heard I guess I've heard people call it splat but I've never really and I didn't

00:18:28   know I wasn't sure if that was something that was unique to you know I was like did my dad make that

00:18:34   up because his business partner called it that too.

00:18:39   And that's just what we called it around the house.

00:18:42   I mean, we started using our first Mac was an LC at home

00:18:43   in like 1994 or something like that, or three, I don't know.

00:18:48   And then we had like a 2SI and 2CI and I had my first

00:18:52   Performa and all that stuff.

00:18:56   Actually found some really great old Mac stuff that I'm going

00:19:00   to post, I think maybe next week, last time I was home in

00:19:02   in Chicago, but I'm not going to spoil it.

00:19:07   But anyway, yeah, we call it the Splat Key, I don't know why.

00:19:10   So before I, I was trying to find a name for my tech site.

00:19:12   I didn't want to just host it at FromDome.com

00:19:16   or Dan Fromer.com or something like that.

00:19:19   I wanted it to be something that I could extend away from me

00:19:22   a little if I ever wanted to grow it,

00:19:26   if I ever wanted to hire a staff or if someone ever sued me

00:19:28   and wanted to bankrupt me or something like that.

00:19:28   So I Googled Splat and it showed up as like,

00:19:33   someone had written a website about it being,

00:19:36   or maybe not a website, but maybe it's mentioned

00:19:38   as like an alternative name on the command key

00:19:41   Wikipedia page or something like that.

00:19:43   So I'm like, all right, it's not just me.

00:19:45   I'll go with this.

00:19:48   It was a short domain, it was available,

00:19:50   it was eight bucks from GoDaddy, so I went with it.

00:19:54   It's kind of weird, but people are like,

00:19:56   Dude, what's Splaff?

00:19:57   How's Splaff going?

00:19:59   And I said, no, it's actually Spla-a-f.

00:20:02   - I like it, I like it as a name.

00:20:04   And it's also, it's very difficult

00:20:05   to find a sixcharacter.com.

00:20:07   - Right, and actually the Twitter account was not available.

00:20:11   And I was like, oh man, this sucks.

00:20:13   But then I found out that I knew the people

00:20:15   who had the Twitter account.

00:20:16   They were a startup in New York called Single Platform.

00:20:20   So if you like, if you take a bunch of letters out of it.

00:20:24   - Yeah, yeah, yeah, Single Platform.

00:20:25   single time.

00:20:26   And they were using it as like a test account to like tweet out some automated list.

00:20:30   So I emailed the CEO who I had met a couple of times and I was like, "Hey, can I have

00:20:35   this Twitter account?"

00:20:36   And so yeah, they hooked me up with that.

00:20:38   So that was pretty sweet.

00:20:39   They just got bought for many millions of dollars.

00:20:41   So good for them.

00:20:43   Hopefully it's because of me.

00:20:45   My last question about the name is what is the F in reference to?

00:20:50   Is it specifically about the find command which Splat F is the universal shortcut for

00:20:54   or is the F for Fromer?

00:20:57   - It's for Fromer.

00:20:58   And that's kind of my, yeah.

00:21:03   I really want to keep it,

00:21:04   now that I've thought about it

00:21:05   and I've been doing it for a while,

00:21:06   I want to keep it basically my site

00:21:08   and only my site forever, you know?

00:21:09   Kind of just do it as much or as little time

00:21:12   as it can afford. - Oh, that will never work out.

00:21:15   - Yeah. (laughs)

00:21:17   Yeah, right, exactly.

00:21:18   - That's got no leg.

00:21:19   - Yeah, it does. - One guy doing a site.

00:21:20   - Yeah.

00:21:21   But it's cool.

00:21:24   it's find or it's full screen in some app so I was like oh if I have a

00:21:27   conference I could call it splat f full screen or so nobody should ever use that

00:21:30   for full screen it should never be anything other than find you time does

00:21:34   that tell me the apps that do that and I'm gonna have them I think it's VLC oh

00:21:38   that's horrible yeah oh my god well of course it's VLC she's yeah right yeah I

00:21:43   remember the first version of text mate had like a command like a wasn't print

00:21:51   but it was something related to print that that they they bound to option P and

00:21:56   You can't have commands that are only option something because how else would you that's how you type pie, right?

00:22:03   Like it was so crazy like

00:22:05   And it was in Greece. They must be going nuts, right? I have no idea

00:22:10   it's like it's just one of those weird things where it's because I've I'm so ingrained in the Mac and Apple that

00:22:19   There's like a grammar to it

00:22:21   Like when you hear somebody who speaks English as a second language and you just forgive all of these grammatical mistakes

00:22:28   There's a grammar to picking

00:22:31   Command key shortcuts that fit with the platform and somebody who's like new to writing Mac software

00:22:37   Will get it all wrong and it to me

00:22:40   It's it you just like pull down the menu and look at the commands and the shortcuts and it's like oh my god

00:22:45   You're nuts command F for something other than find totally

00:22:49   I remember switching from Quark to, I don't know,

00:22:53   kind of when the web started coming out

00:22:54   and I was using other software to do web graphics

00:22:57   and not just print stuff.

00:22:58   And all the commands I knew from Quark

00:23:00   were totally different things than whatever the other,

00:23:03   I don't know if it was Photoshop or something else.

00:23:04   It was totally confusing.

00:23:05   - Yeah.

00:23:06   - 'Cause everything made sense.

00:23:07   It was like, you know, run around, all this stuff.

00:23:10   - Yeah, the one that always got me,

00:23:13   and I was always a Quark guy too, was that,

00:23:16   And it was also a function of the relatively smaller displays of the era.

00:23:21   That a huge, huge shortcut in all of those apps

00:23:25   was the ability to turn the cursor into the hand,

00:23:28   so you could drag the canvas around.

00:23:30   Ah, interesting.

00:23:31   And in Quark, you held down the Option key.

00:23:34   And then the cursor would turn into a hand,

00:23:36   no matter what you were doing, what mode you were in.

00:23:38   And you could drag the page around the screen.

00:23:42   That's cool.

00:23:42   And in all the Adobe apps, it was the space bar.

00:23:45   Oh, yeah. And I could never ever get used to that because I spent 90% of my time in quark and 10% of

00:23:51   my time in say Photoshop or Illustrator. And, and always when I went to do that would hold down the

00:23:56   option key and click and instead I'm like changing a bezier curve or something like that.

00:24:00   You know, Adobe still screws with you like that, like that. I have like a real Photoshop at home,

00:24:07   but then at work, I had Photoshop elements. And the key to do so if you're selecting an area in

00:24:14   Photoshop and you want it to be a perfect square, you hold the shift key down, right?

00:24:19   That makes it square.

00:24:20   But in Photoshop Elements, it's the control key.

00:24:26   I don't know why.

00:24:27   Maybe they're pulling that from Windows or something.

00:24:28   I don't know.

00:24:29   But it just completely throws me off every single time, which was on a daily basis.

00:24:33   I was trying to crop photos at work.

00:24:35   Tom Bilyeu: Well, the other thing that made the Quark version of that shortcut more logical

00:24:40   was even if you were in the middle of typing a sentence, so you're in text editing mode,

00:24:44   If you held down the option key, the cursor would change to a hand and you could drag.

00:24:48   With Adobe's where you held down the space bar, if you were typing something and you

00:24:52   hit space, it's going to insert a space.

00:24:55   You had to leave text editing mode before you could actually even use the command.

00:25:00   So it always made me angry.

00:25:02   All right.

00:25:03   So we're going to talk about Twitter.

00:25:04   But before we do that, I want to do the first – thank our first sponsor.

00:25:10   Our first sponsor is a terrific, wonderful iPad app called the Adventures of Alex Electricity.

00:25:19   And it's the first installment of what's going to be a series of interactive stories for

00:25:23   the iPad.

00:25:24   It tells the story of Alex, a smart, inquisitive boy who wants to discover the origins of electricity.

00:25:31   So is it a game?

00:25:32   Is it a book?

00:25:34   It's sort of all of the above.

00:25:36   It is really, really well done.

00:25:38   It is obviously it's for children.

00:25:40   But I think it's almost like a Pixar movie in that it's also easily.

00:25:45   I went through the whole thing and had a blast.

00:25:50   The artwork is all hand-drawn, all retina quality.

00:25:53   The music is so good that it's actually sold on its own in the iTunes store as a soundtrack

00:26:00   and absolutely deserves to be pulled out like that.

00:26:05   Terrific music.

00:26:07   So yeah, you're learning about science, you're learning about electricity, but it's just

00:26:12   fun. It is like, I don't even know where to draw the line on this app between where they're

00:26:16   calling it an interactive book or a game, an educational game. It is a perfect, perfect

00:26:23   example of the sort of thing you can do on the iPad that I just don't think you could

00:26:28   have done before. It is absolutely not just like a static book with a couple of buttons

00:26:33   you can click to play sounds. It is interactive, you move stuff around, but it involves reading,

00:26:38   you touch something, everything you touch shows up, the words show up on screen to help

00:26:42   kids learn to read. A whole bunch of fun. Really, really good. $4.99 in the App Store

00:26:50   for the iPad and it's called the Adventures of Alex Electricity. You can learn more about

00:26:56   it at a website, the adventures of Alex.com. Anybody with grade school kids absolutely

00:27:05   go look at this app, you're going to love it, your kids are going to love it. And I

00:27:10   thank them for sponsoring the show.

00:27:11   Jared Polin Is that cool though? I don't have kids, but

00:27:14   I remember, you know, yeah, being a kid, not yet. But being I remember being a kid and,

00:27:19   you know, books were like 20 bucks, they were, you know, of course, they were static, we're

00:27:23   lucky you know they were color and they were cool but the stuff the kids get

00:27:27   these days they're really they're really spoiled oh absolutely and I'm telling

00:27:31   for $4.99 and it is a remarkable the artwork is astounding I mean it is easy

00:27:37   I mean I I would go to a bookstore and buy the equivalent book for my kid for

00:27:41   15 bucks with this level of artwork and the size you get you know an iPad size

00:27:45   book easily 15 bucks for a kid's book it is way more way more engaging I think oh

00:27:53   Oh, and I should also add, I honestly have no idea how big our Spanish speaking contention

00:27:59   is, but the entire thing is available in both Spanish and English.

00:28:04   So I don't know, maybe it's even a good way for kids to start learning Spanish.

00:28:07   Nice, yeah.

00:28:09   Amazingly well done, though.

00:28:11   It's just incredibly – the production values are just absolutely top tier.

00:28:16   It could not be better done.

00:28:17   It's a terrific app.

00:28:19   Anyway, Twitter.

00:28:20   Cool.

00:28:21   - Yeah, so let's talk about Twitter.

00:28:23   - You wrote a piece on Splat F right before the July 4th

00:28:28   called Understanding Twitter.

00:28:30   I don't even wanna begin to summarize it

00:28:31   because I thought it was, you just nailed it,

00:28:33   but I'll let you take it from here.

00:28:35   - Sure, and so the context is that once again,

00:28:39   there's this kind of shitstorm of,

00:28:43   so Twitter, oh, Twitter posted a blog post, oh no,

00:28:45   end of the world coming.

00:28:47   And of course, in typical Twitter fashion,

00:28:51   It's a little vague, it's kind of written in the California vernacular.

00:28:56   We don't really know what they mean.

00:29:00   But they're kind of suggesting that, they're kind of reiterating that they don't think people should be building Twitter clients anymore.

00:29:03   And that there's changes coming to the API and all that stuff.

00:29:11   API terms.

00:29:16   And of course, no one knows what that means because they don't really spell it out.

00:29:17   They will someday, I'm sure, and then they'll probably massage it again there.

00:29:22   But the fundamental question is what's happening to this beloved Twitter of ours, right?

00:29:27   In the post is, the post from Twitter was ominous, I thought.

00:29:32   And part of what makes, I thought was ominous wasn't that it flat out said things like,

00:29:36   this is going away or that's going away.

00:29:38   But it, like you alluded to this, but the tone of it was this sort of marketing ease

00:29:44   double speak, right?

00:29:47   - And part of that is just that's kind of the way

00:29:49   they talk out there, which is fine, it's cool.

00:29:52   And I know Michael Sippy, the guy who wrote it.

00:29:54   - Right, I do too. - I see what his name's on.

00:29:56   I don't know how much of it he actually wrote.

00:29:57   But yeah, I'm sure you've known him for a long time.

00:30:00   He's a great dude.

00:30:01   So I don't know what Twitter's gonna do.

00:30:05   But the post that I wrote,

00:30:07   and the post that I like to write are,

00:30:11   my background was as a business journalist.

00:30:14   And a lot of the writing and discussion that we do about Apple and apps and startups and

00:30:21   products is about the product and the design and the user experience and that's wonderful.

00:30:28   But there's also a business involved for a lot of these companies. Now, not all of them.

00:30:34   The model right now in Silicon Valley is get a million bucks, get 10 million users, sell

00:30:40   company for 50 million bucks or something like that. If you're lucky, you get a billion

00:30:45   dollars. If you're not lucky, you get 20 million and a job at Facebook or something like that.

00:30:52   For many years, that was kind of maybe what Twitter was angling for. They could raise

00:30:59   basically unlimited amounts of money at increasing valuations. No one was getting screwed. People

00:31:05   People were getting rich, in fact, early employees, executives, founders, that kind of stuff.

00:31:11   And there was absolutely no pressure to build a business because maybe someday every minute

00:31:19   that they spent trying to build a business in 2009 would have been wasted.

00:31:25   Their mission at that point was to get to whatever, 100 million, a billion users or

00:31:29   something like that.

00:31:30   And that's still part of their mission that they talk about.

00:31:33   But at some point, it seemed that Twitter made a decision.

00:31:38   And actually, there's a video where Dick Costolo, the CEO of Twitter, is talking about this

00:31:42   where they realized, "You know what?

00:31:44   No.

00:31:45   We actually want to keep Twitter to ourselves.

00:31:47   We don't want to sell to Google.

00:31:49   We don't want to sell to Facebook.

00:31:51   We want to keep Twitter as Twitter."

00:31:53   So you could raise money forever and ever and ever to do that, but now especially they

00:32:00   have to start building...

00:32:01   Well, you can't do it forever and ever and ever.

00:32:02   Right.

00:32:03   Okay, I retract.

00:32:08   You can't because then what happens?

00:32:10   So right now it's time to build a business.

00:32:13   It's time to figure out whether Twitter

00:32:17   can make money for itself or not.

00:32:20   And right now they've had all these different

00:32:22   business models that were an opportunity for them.

00:32:25   I wrote an article in what, 2009 or something

00:32:29   where Biz Stone was talking about how they're going to start

00:32:29   selling premium pro services at some point.

00:32:33   Well, that never happened.

00:32:35   But there's any number of different business models that Twitter could choose and they've

00:32:39   chosen advertising.

00:32:40   Part of that is because of the audience size they have.

00:32:43   Part of it is because Dick Costolo has been trying to do real-time social advertising

00:32:48   forever.

00:32:49   That was kind of his thing at FeedBurner.

00:32:51   That's what I've heard.

00:32:52   He was working on a Google after FeedBurner was acquired.

00:32:55   And now that's kind of the thing that he could probably do the best at Twitter.

00:33:00   So the comments in my post, some of them were really good,

00:33:05   talking about how there's all kinds of different other business models,

00:33:08   selling data mining and all that kind of stuff.

00:33:13   But clearly the business model that Twitter has chosen is advertising.

00:33:16   And that means that there's going to have to be some changes to Twitter.

00:33:23   that as someone who's sitting in front of Twitter probably for 10 hours a day, not actively,

00:33:30   but it's sitting there open on my computer for 10, 12 hours a day, I personally hope

00:33:35   they don't change it, degrade it to a point that I don't find it interesting and amusing

00:33:40   and useful anymore.

00:33:41   But certainly they're going to have to do some things to attempt to make money because

00:33:47   they weren't before.

00:33:48   So, and there's something, I am like you, I am personally very invested in Twitter as

00:33:56   something I use all day.

00:33:58   And it also makes me a lot of money.

00:34:01   I don't know about you, but the traffic that I get from Twitter, you know, it doesn't pay

00:34:06   my rent, but it, you know, buys dinner a couple days a week, you know, once a month or something

00:34:11   like that.

00:34:12   I, you know, that is true.

00:34:13   I assume though, I'm not quite sure though whether the, I mean, Twitter URLs are at the

00:34:20   top of my incoming referral list every day.

00:34:23   I mean, I honestly should probably rejigger my analytics to not even count them because

00:34:29   they're so disproportionate.

00:34:30   You know, Tico links are always at the top.

00:34:33   I don't know though if Twitter didn't exist or went away or changed in a way such that

00:34:38   the Daring Fireball audience would no longer use it.

00:34:43   I'm not sure that it would decrease my readership, it's just that I think people would get to

00:34:46   it in a different way.

00:34:47   Maybe.

00:34:48   I don't know.

00:34:49   But it's certainly there.

00:34:50   And of course, like, well, we can't really, we will never know, you know, but where I'm

00:34:55   more concerned about it professionally is that I get a remarkable amount of the stuff

00:35:00   that I link to from the people I follow on Twitter.

00:35:05   Like I absolutely when I see somebody who, you know, has, you know, is that that that

00:35:11   logic you go through when you decide should I follow this person or not like you get you

00:35:15   see their at username in a comment stream or a you know a conversation in Twitter parlance

00:35:22   and hey this person seems interesting and I'll load up their profile and look at like

00:35:26   maybe their last day's worth of tweets and if I see two links in there like last just

00:35:31   within the last day to things like wow that's interesting maybe I should post that to during

00:35:34   Fireball. Boom, that's a follow. And after years of this, I have, you know, my incoming

00:35:41   Twitter stream is, to me, a gold mine of material. I don't know what I would do without that.

00:35:49   I honestly…

00:35:50   I haven't touched an RSS reader since 2008, maybe. You know, it's all Twitter for me.

00:35:55   And I unsubscribe from pretty much every newsletter I was getting. It's really kind of my main

00:36:04   incoming source of information.

00:36:09   So news, entertainment, social,

00:36:10   I find music and videos to watch on their books

00:36:14   to read, all kinds of stuff.

00:36:18   So it's really an amazing service.

00:36:19   And I think you'll agree with me,

00:36:22   I really hope that whatever changes happen,

00:36:24   don't ruin Twitter.

00:36:28   And I think they're actually sensitive to that too.

00:36:30   The pushback that I got was that, to my article,

00:36:33   from concerned people was,

00:36:38   well, Twitter cares about the product more

00:36:41   than they care about the revenue.

00:36:43   Now, I don't know if that means Twitter cares

00:36:46   about the product vision that they have

00:36:48   that may be widely different than today's Twitter,

00:36:52   or that they care about what exists today

00:36:57   in the whole developer ecosystem

00:36:59   and excellent apps like Tweetbot and that sort of stuff.

00:37:03   Because the end, secondarily, the other reason that I'm so personally invested in it is the

00:37:07   literal social aspect of it, where not talking about it as an RSS feed or a way of finding

00:37:16   information, but the way that I stay in touch with friends who I don't see very frequently.

00:37:21   And it seems crazy. And at the beginning, back in 2006, when I first signed up, I never

00:37:27   really anticipated that it would grow in that way, that I would feel like it's the way that

00:37:31   I stay connected to a lot of friends in a way like I've often described it as the modern

00:37:38   day water cooler for the work day.

00:37:40   The brilliance of Twitter is that in hindsight, I mean it really, and I think so many of the

00:37:46   world's best ideas and ideas that have gone on to change the world and make, you know,

00:37:50   tons of money for somebody somewhere along the line, in hindsight are like head-slappingly

00:37:56   obvious.

00:37:57   Twitter conceptually is one of the simplest things ever conceived. You sign up, you choose

00:38:05   whose messages to see, and everybody who's involved can send these 140 character or fewer

00:38:13   messages that are nothing but text, and the only people who see them are the people who've

00:38:17   chosen to see those from you. That's it. And obviously it's evolved a bit since then, and

00:38:24   taking it in new directions now with these embedded things. But they're still kind of

00:38:30   doing it kind of cleverly, where like, like one of the new features they've rolled out

00:38:33   on the website is if you link to a Kickstarter campaign, and it recognizes that the URL is

00:38:40   pointing to Kickstarter slash, you know, whatever the the URL is for that campaign, it instead

00:38:45   of just showing you a link, it shows you a little embedded. I don't know what you would

00:38:52   call it a little… what would you call it?

00:38:56   I haven't seen the kick start.

00:38:58   I haven't seen it.

00:38:59   It's like an embedded…

00:39:02   Is it the video?

00:39:03   Because if you do a YouTube video, now you can actually watch the video straight in the

00:39:07   stream even in the iPhone client, which was kind of cool.

00:39:10   Like a little template.

00:39:11   It's a little template with information about the campaign.

00:39:14   Oh, that's cool.

00:39:15   So it's like a little widget or something.

00:39:16   Yeah, a widget is probably perfect.

00:39:18   And it's sort of exactly along the same lines.

00:39:20   A lot of stuff is evolving in this way where if you know what it is and it's a known thing,

00:39:26   a type of thing, instead of just showing it as something like a URL, which really in the

00:39:33   original vision of the web was never even meant to be user exposed.

00:39:37   I mean that's like a developer thing, but we've just – they're so useful that we've

00:39:40   passed them around.

00:39:41   But if you know it's a Kickstarter campaign and you know how you can format into a widget

00:39:45   the basic gist of a Kickstarter campaign, that's what they show you.

00:39:49   So it's sort of like what Siri does and what Google now does with search results for things

00:39:54   like sports scores.

00:39:57   What was the score of the All-Star game?

00:40:01   And well, I know exactly what you mean by that.

00:40:03   That it's a baseball game and I can format it exactly right for showing you the results

00:40:08   of a baseball game.

00:40:10   And that's where they're sort of taking Twitter.

00:40:11   But input-wise, you don't have to like create the widget.

00:40:15   You're not going through this complex creation

00:40:17   to post the tweet where you have to format a widget.

00:40:20   You just paste in the URL to a Kickstarter campaign.

00:40:23   - And what I'm wondering is if that's better,

00:40:26   I guess it's better.

00:40:28   I mean, you're getting more information,

00:40:29   but it is adding complexity and weight

00:40:32   to the Twitter experience.

00:40:35   One of the things that I love the most about Twitter

00:40:38   is completely just how simple it is.

00:40:41   And every time they add more to it.

00:40:44   - So do you ever use the activity view of Twitter?

00:40:49   - Seldom.

00:40:50   - Yeah, it's kind of buried, maybe on purpose, I don't know,

00:40:54   but it basically tells you what other people

00:40:56   are doing on Twitter.

00:40:56   So I could see what you're favoriting or faving or whatever,

00:41:01   who you're following, that kind of stuff.

00:41:03   And I think that the people at Twitter

00:41:05   actually are really gung ho about that.

00:41:07   And I'm wondering if they're gonna ever try

00:41:09   to put that sort of stuff into the feed.

00:41:14   And that would be like really kind of disruptive

00:41:17   to what the Twitter legacy experience has been.

00:41:20   And I wonder if that might be why they're starting

00:41:23   to kind of push developers down.

00:41:25   I don't know.

00:41:26   That's kind of my crazy, my wacky ass idea

00:41:28   of like what they might be doing with it going forward.

00:41:31   But I have no idea.

00:41:33   - My concern with the direction we're going

00:41:35   is that to me, adding all that rich stuff into the stream,

00:41:39   it breaks the scanability.

00:41:42   by which I mean like, remember the old days of email,

00:41:46   where all you would see when you go to read your email

00:41:48   is a list of subjects, and you know,

00:41:51   they're marked, read and unread with bold

00:41:53   or something like that, or bullets,

00:41:54   and then you'd see who it is and what the subject is,

00:41:57   which would give you some idea of, you know,

00:41:59   you knew before you clicked on the message

00:42:00   what it would be, and then you'd click on the message

00:42:02   to read it, and there's a lot of clicking,

00:42:04   or up and downing on the arrow keys, or something like that.

00:42:07   And now think about the way Apple has gone,

00:42:11   and other people too, I mean,

00:42:12   And I know Outlook, I think Outlook maybe even pioneered this.

00:42:16   But this idea that the list of messages would in addition to just who and the subject would

00:42:21   show you the first couple of like maybe the first sentence or so or two, two or three

00:42:24   lines of the email in the list of messages.

00:42:27   Well, all of a sudden, you don't you don't even have to open some of those messages,

00:42:31   you can actually get the gist of it.

00:42:32   And if it's a really short email, you could read the whole thing right in the list.

00:42:36   I always resisted that.

00:42:39   I love the old Eudora where it was just the subject,

00:42:44   and I forgot what I switched to,

00:42:45   or maybe it was like Eudora Pro or something like that.

00:42:48   Then you almost, or maybe it was MailApp,

00:42:50   I don't remember, with OS X, mail.app,

00:42:53   and then you kind of had to have the preview.

00:42:55   And that, oh, I think maybe it was Netscape,

00:42:59   boy, remember Netscape Communicator?

00:43:01   That was like the biggest bloated, that was the worst.

00:43:05   - Well, you know what though,

00:43:06   and it's a funny analogy though,

00:43:07   because isn't that the concern about the direction

00:43:10   Twitter's going, that they're gonna take this thing

00:43:11   that was simple and tight?

00:43:13   - Exactly, it was so light,

00:43:14   that it took no bandwidth to download,

00:43:16   it was super fast on your phone,

00:43:18   and now you're downloading YouTube metadata

00:43:20   and 300K photo, or probably they're probably shrunk down,

00:43:25   but images and all this stuff.

00:43:27   And this goes back to the business thing.

00:43:31   Well, maybe that's a better environment for ads.

00:43:34   Maybe if they wanna sell an ad to,

00:43:36   whatever. Chevrolet, Chevy wants not only their promoted tweet, but they also want their

00:43:41   YouTube video to show up in the stream or something like that. And maybe Twitter is

00:43:46   trying to train us to click on more stuff within the tweet stream to make the ad click-through

00:43:52   rate higher. I don't know.

00:43:54   The mismatch with email and that preview view is that email can be of arbitrary length.

00:44:00   And so some messages, maybe that preview gives you almost everything you need to know. And

00:44:04   others it isn't even more useful than showing you any preview at all because

00:44:08   the email is so long whereas Twitter all there is is the preview right that you

00:44:15   don't have to you don't have to click the tweets to read the tweets you just

00:44:21   read the list and they flow by and you have to the the hundred and forty

00:44:25   character limit as frustrating as it can be sometimes when you have a hundred and

00:44:28   60 character thought it forces it's not like 140 in particular was magic like if they had chosen

00:44:36   148 instead or 150 or something like that would make no difference but by having a relatively

00:44:42   terse thing something like my at reply stream immediately after I post a longer article the

00:44:49   daring fireball is incredibly more useful for me to go through than my email you know to get

00:44:57   feedback from readers and thoughts and stuff like that.

00:45:02   It's almost a perfect length because it's long enough that you can have a real idea,

00:45:06   but it's not too long that you can't have too many ideas.

00:45:12   I almost wish that comments like on – well, you have comments often during Fireball.

00:45:17   I turned them on on Splat F just to see how it worked, but I wish that comments had a

00:45:21   140 limit because then people could give me their two cents and then that was it.

00:45:27   I didn't have to read a six paragraph essay.

00:45:30   It's almost a perfect limit and it's very scannable.

00:45:34   I can't say this enough, the fact that Twitter is so mobile friendly is so huge for the service,

00:45:41   but also for the business I think.

00:45:43   If you look at where everything is going in mobile and you look at how completely behind

00:45:47   Facebook is and some of the other big companies are.

00:45:50   Like that's such a huge advantage for Twitter

00:45:52   that the product and in theory the ad product as well

00:45:56   are super friendly to small screens and slow connections.

00:46:00   - It is, I definitely consider Twitter to be the effective,

00:46:05   the equivalent of comments for Daring Fireball.

00:46:08   - Yeah.

00:46:08   - And it's for me, it's been way better.

00:46:11   I think it's worked out way better than if I had,

00:46:13   in every way than if I had actually ever added

00:46:16   traditional comments to Daring Fireball.

00:46:18   And I can't imagine, in hindsight, in so many ways,

00:46:22   I just can't imagine how I did the site

00:46:24   for the first four or five years without it.

00:46:26   And it's funny, it's also funny to me--

00:46:29   - It's almost like having a Mac without the internet, right?

00:46:31   You're like, you're unplugged for a few hours,

00:46:33   like, "Oh, what do I do with this thing?"

00:46:34   - Well, and it's funny to me that Twitter

00:46:36   is about as old as the iPhone, because they're, you know,

00:46:40   and they're very, very much married to me.

00:46:43   I know I signed up for Twitter I think in like November 2006.

00:46:47   So a little bit before the iPhone was announced and six, seven months before it actually shipped.

00:46:52   But in the grand scheme of things, that's pretty close.

00:46:55   And one of the big things I immediately started doing with my iPhone the day I got it was

00:47:01   using Twitter on the iPhone, which at the time required the mobile site.

00:47:06   And –

00:47:07   Or you could jailbreak and use what was it, Twinkle or something like that?

00:47:11   Twitterrific was a jailbreak.

00:47:12   - Terrific, oh, that also was too.

00:47:13   I didn't have the first iPhone,

00:47:16   but the reason that I wanted one so badly,

00:47:18   one of the main reasons was Twitter.

00:47:20   I was stuck on like a Sprint contract with a Palm Trio,

00:47:23   so I had to wait for the 3G.

00:47:25   But no, the iPhone and Twitter go so well together,

00:47:29   and that's why I'm actually happy

00:47:31   that Apple and Twitter kind of work together.

00:47:34   - The original m.twitter.com was meant

00:47:38   for pre-iPhone mobile phones that could render HTML.

00:47:41   So it was super, super rudimentary.

00:47:44   I mean, it worked, it was good for reading,

00:47:45   but it was really meant for like a BlackBerry

00:47:50   that could render HTML, not something like mobile Safari.

00:47:54   - Did you see they updated that this week also?

00:47:56   There was something yesterday, I don't know.

00:47:58   - Yeah, but they've long since gone into full on HTML5,

00:48:03   pushing the limits of what a mobile web thing can do.

00:48:08   I don't, I'm not quite sure,

00:48:09   I still don't know why they do that though,

00:48:10   because their app, I mean, why would you,

00:48:12   I don't know why you would want to use that

00:48:14   instead of an app.

00:48:15   And the only phones that are capable of taking advantage

00:48:20   of everything they do on their new mobile site

00:48:23   are ones that have apps available.

00:48:25   - Right, well, so the new, but then,

00:48:26   so I guess what they just recently rebuilt

00:48:29   was the old mobile site, which was not,

00:48:32   it's not HTML5, it's like the old technology,

00:48:35   and they're testing it on feature phones

00:48:37   and that kind of stuff.

00:48:38   - Oh, I didn't see that.

00:48:39   Yeah, I think it came out last night or something like that.

00:48:44   And Nick Bilton had a good post about this,

00:48:52   but the message was,

00:48:54   Twitter wants to have a consistent user experience.

00:48:57   And I think the put-up or shut-up as a user

00:49:00   that I would say to them is,

00:49:05   "Well, then do it."

00:49:06   Because here we have the iPad app,

00:49:06   which is completely not the same as the iPhone app,

00:49:09   even close, you know, there's big features that are missing.

00:49:12   The Mac app is completely, probably deserted.

00:49:16   I don't know if you know anything I don't know about it.

00:49:19   - I know a little bit more than you know about it.

00:49:20   But it is obviously, I mean the most important,

00:49:24   I don't think it's dead.

00:49:26   I do think there will be an update,

00:49:27   but it's clearly the lowest priority of everything,

00:49:32   anything they have.

00:49:32   And the danger is, even though they,

00:49:35   I am my understanding is that they definitely intend to update it. But at a low enough priority,

00:49:41   even if you intend to get around to it, you never do. Right? Because there's always something

00:49:45   of one of the higher priority things that rises atop it. But it I mean, do you have

00:49:50   you have do you have a you don't have a new MacBook Pro retina display to you? I don't

00:49:55   but it's Twitter, the Twitter app is it's all unreadable. Yeah, because the way just

00:50:01   at a technical level, the way that it was engineered, does all the drawing to an off

00:50:05   screen thing and then pushes it to the screen. But that means even text is not retina. Whereas

00:50:12   most almost all apps, even if they're not updated for retina, it's the stuff like the

00:50:18   buttons and the icons that are not retina, but text is retina automatically, which is

00:50:24   familiar to anybody who upgraded like an eye, you know, just like with the iPhone, the one

00:50:27   to the iPhone 4, before the apps were retina, at least text was retina. Well, with the Twitter

00:50:33   app for Mac, even the text isn't retina. And it's, it's, I mean, it's just unbelievably

00:50:39   unreadable. You just got to think that Apple is leaning on them a little to kind of take

00:50:44   care of that, right? I mean, they're showing them off in the, I think it was in the keynote,

00:50:48   right for the notification center and all that stuff. So yeah, I would think so, especially

00:50:53   with the way that now you can in mountain lion, you know that mountain lion gains the

00:50:58   iOS like ability to add a system level add your Twitter account.

00:51:02   Presumably, they'll have the same little promotion, hey, get the Twitter app in the app store.

00:51:09   I think the fact that they there is no way that Apple is going to promote that app while

00:51:13   it looks like this. I mean, it looks so bad on retina display that it would if you thought

00:51:19   Twitter was important, it would make you say, well, I'm not buying this computer yet because

00:51:22   because it's horrendous.

00:51:24   - Doesn't the fact that it supports the notifications

00:51:27   at all mean that they have to at least update it for that?

00:51:30   - I hope so.

00:51:31   - 'Cause I don't think the current app itself

00:51:34   could support the notification center.

00:51:36   'Cause what's it sending notifications to right now?

00:51:38   I don't think to anything.

00:51:39   So I think they'll fix that.

00:51:43   I hope so, I don't know.

00:51:45   - So bottom line, what do you think,

00:51:48   how do you think it's gonna work out with Twitter?

00:51:49   Do you think Twitter is going to shoot the ability for third-party clients to work?

00:51:57   That's the fear that I have.

00:51:59   That's the fear that most of us have is that the direction they're going is that they're

00:52:02   going to say, "Okay, third-party – they'll spin it in the direction of this consistent

00:52:08   interface."

00:52:09   And by consistent interface, they mean our interface, our website and our apps.

00:52:14   and you'll either go to twitter.com

00:52:16   or you'll use the twitter.app for your platform

00:52:19   and that's it.

00:52:20   - So here's what we're missing.

00:52:23   We're missing the data of like what number,

00:52:26   what percent of tweets are sent currently

00:52:29   from outside clients?

00:52:30   - Right, and my guess is it is minuscule.

00:52:34   - Right.

00:52:35   - And that it's largely, my guess also,

00:52:37   is that those tweets are disproportionately from

00:52:44   high popular people, people who are like us,

00:52:49   like people who don't just follow me

00:52:52   because they know me personally,

00:52:53   but follow me because I'm the guy

00:52:55   who rides Daring Fireball.

00:52:56   And like you--

00:52:58   - I would bet that it's more early Twitter users

00:53:02   than late Twitter users.

00:53:03   Like if you look at the first 10 million users

00:53:06   and then the last, the most recent 10 million users,

00:53:09   I bet 99% of the most recent ones

00:53:12   only use official Twitter stuff.

00:53:17   And the first 10 million it's probably

00:53:20   disproportionately using third party apps.

00:53:22   Because that's what we grew up with, right?

00:53:25   Like we had Twitterrific and Twinkle and Tweety

00:53:26   and all these other things.

00:53:31   But now the people now, they don't even know

00:53:31   about that stuff.

00:53:33   And Twitter has time and time again made decisions

00:53:37   that are in the favor of the next 50 million,

00:53:41   100 million users at the expense of the first batch of users.

00:53:46   So I don't know.

00:53:54   I don't think they'll one day just turn off

00:53:56   the API to clients, but they might, and that's kind of crazy.

00:54:01   So one option they would have would, by the way,

00:54:08   which is like, okay, we could just start spitting the ads

00:54:09   into Tweetbot and cut that revenue with you.

00:54:14   And then the way that Google AdSense brings Google ads

00:54:18   to the whole web, they could bring Twitter ads

00:54:21   to the whole Twitter ecosystem.

00:54:23   But I think that's probably not,

00:54:26   I think they're not really betting on that

00:54:28   the way they maybe once were.

00:54:30   - Right.

00:54:31   - And I also--

00:54:32   - What if they want to change the ads or something

00:54:34   and then, you know, they don't have any control

00:54:36   over Tweetbots display or anything like that.

00:54:40   - And you know, like an idea that I know,

00:54:43   everybody, you know, people out there listening to the show,

00:54:46   I'm sure there's 95% of them are thinking

00:54:49   the same thing I'm about to say,

00:54:51   which is why not just let people pay?

00:54:54   And if you pay, then you can use third-party client,

00:54:56   I'll, you know, charge me $20 a year,

00:55:01   and then I have pro Twitter account,

00:55:02   and I can use third-party clients,

00:55:05   and other people don't.

00:55:06   And the masses, of course, most people won't pay

00:55:08   and they'll just use Twitter.com or the free Twitter app.

00:55:11   And for those of us who really, really care, we'll do it.

00:55:15   We'll just pay 20 bucks.

00:55:16   And that might not be good for the Tweetbot people.

00:55:19   That might really put a damper in, you know,

00:55:23   'cause it's one thing to pay four bucks for the app

00:55:26   or three bucks for the app and that's it.

00:55:28   You pay once and then you use the app

00:55:30   but it might be something different

00:55:31   if you had to pay 15 or 20 bucks a year

00:55:33   just to have your account upgraded to that.

00:55:36   But I just don't think Twitter has any interest

00:55:38   in that whatsoever, in the same way that Google

00:55:40   doesn't let you pay 20 bucks to get

00:55:42   a search or ad-free search results.

00:55:45   - Right, and that also gets back to my post a little,

00:55:47   which is it's not that Twitter needs to start making money,

00:55:51   it's that they need to figure out how to make a lot of money

00:55:54   because this is not 19, if they started doing that in 2007

00:55:59   and made a couple million bucks a year,

00:56:02   and that would have been probably cool back then,

00:56:04   but they have publicly kind of leaked

00:56:08   that they want to have a billion dollar ad business by 2014.

00:56:12   So you're not gonna make a billion dollars

00:56:15   from subscriptions.

00:56:16   I don't think anyone, maybe Comcast does.

00:56:19   - Right, even if you said,

00:56:21   and I think let's just throw out a ballpark number

00:56:24   that $5 in revenue per year per user from the ads

00:56:29   probably, I mean, that might be reasonable, you know, that if they have 200 million users,

00:56:34   and they make an average, they make a billion dollars in advertising, that's like $5 per

00:56:39   user. So why not let me give you $15, which is three times the average you get from the

00:56:46   ads? Why not just let me give you that money to keep using these third party clients, even

00:56:51   if they don't show the ads, but it it it's not that they don't want the money from you,

00:56:55   the one person, it's that it doesn't work out in the aggregate, right?

00:56:58   Yeah, every person that they take out of the potential ad-viewing population shrinks their

00:57:05   reach to the advertisers. That's their big sales pitch is, "Hey, we have 100, 200 million

00:57:11   users buying ads here."

00:57:13   It's the fact that they need that billion-dollar idea.

00:57:15   Exactly.

00:57:16   Not that they need – it doesn't really work out if it's just $15 from John Gruber

00:57:20   so he can keep using Twitterrific.

00:57:21   Totally, yeah. And if this billion-dollar idea doesn't work, then they have to find

00:57:25   another one because there's never a point where they won't have to find a billion-dollar

00:57:30   idea.

00:57:31   Right.

00:57:32   I mean, who are the companies that they're looking to join?

00:57:34   They're looking to join Facebook, all advertising, Google, all advertising.

00:57:39   Apple is a huge company, but they sell hardware.

00:57:42   So that's irrelevant to them.

00:57:44   Twitter is not making hardware, I don't think.

00:57:47   Yahoo makes, has a multiple billion-dollar advertising business.

00:57:51   I think AOL might also.

00:57:53   But there aren't that many of them.

00:57:55   especially on mobile.

00:57:56   And mobile advertising is actually

00:57:59   a surprisingly small industry.

00:58:01   I think it's in the billions, but it's not,

00:58:06   I don't think it's in the tens of billions.

00:58:08   So it's, and this is actually an opportunity

00:58:11   for them to really be a pioneer.

00:58:12   So they can't not take it seriously.

00:58:15   But I hope they don't do anything mean.

00:58:20   - I could live with it, but would,

00:58:23   I would I think it would be a bad move if they said if they instead of cutting off the

00:58:28   API, if they cut off new access to the API, and other and I think that's also something

00:58:36   a lot of people worry that they're going to do, which is in other words, say, okay, no

00:58:40   more third party clients, but the ones who are there are grandfathered in.

00:58:45   And you're allowed to keep going.

00:58:46   I think I could live with that, because I'm pretty happy with the developers who are making

00:58:52   Twitter clients today and I really trust that, you know, I feel like we still have a plethora

00:58:59   of amazing Twitter clients. Like my third favorite Twitter client is a fantastic Twitter

00:59:05   client that I would be happy to use if the first two went away. You know, 345 deep on

00:59:10   the iPhone, I think.

00:59:13   I haven't thought about that as a possibility. I wonder if they would, yeah.

00:59:16   I think that's a very good possibility that they're just going to say no more. I could

00:59:21   live with that, but I still think it would be a mistake because I don't think you should

00:59:25   ever bet against the innovations that could come out of the future. That somebody a year

00:59:31   from now is going to come up with an idea for a Twitter client that is truly innovative.

00:59:37   And the thing that I really hope that Twitter remembers is that so much of what we take

00:59:42   for granted now with Twitter, both with apps and just the way people use it, was not from

00:59:48   them that it was invented by by users. Garrett Murray had a post the other day

00:59:54   about the invention of at replies that that was great that was awesome that

01:00:01   wasn't a feature that wasn't something people did it was like all of a sudden

01:00:04   like a couple of months in people just started doing it and it does I do he

01:00:08   attributed it to Flickr and I do think that's right where Flickr for years had

01:00:13   a sort of it wasn't a feature it was just like a what would you call it like

01:00:18   a tradition among the users that, you know, if you wanted in a comment stream, you'd post

01:00:26   a photo to Flickr and three or four of your friends would post comments and I want to

01:00:30   write back to the one you wrote. You wrote like the second comment was you. I would write

01:00:34   @ and then Fromdome because that's your Flickr name, colon. In other words, this comment

01:00:40   is a response to Fromdome's two above. And it wasn't hooked up in any way. It wasn't,

01:00:47   you know, there was no technical connection.

01:00:49   It was just a convention.

01:00:51   The word I'm looking for was it was just like a convention.

01:00:53   - Convention, yeah, that's right.

01:00:54   - Twitter didn't come up with that.

01:00:56   It was just something users started doing at the same time,

01:01:00   like at late 2006 or early 2007 or something like that.

01:01:04   Hashtags, right, which is like--

01:01:08   - That's another one, yeah,

01:01:08   which is like their marketing thing now, you know?

01:01:10   - Right. - Which is like on every,

01:01:12   every time I turn the TV on,

01:01:13   there's a hashtag or two of them, you know?

01:01:16   It's unbelievable to me.

01:01:18   And I don't even use hashtags.

01:01:19   I still think it's line-wise.

01:01:20   No, it's gauche.

01:01:21   It's like, I only, you know, well, I use them ironically or like, you know, by force.

01:01:28   I would never, I don't willingly.

01:01:29   But I was watching the, I was watching the Home Run Derby.

01:01:34   Yeah, and they were both.

01:01:36   So they're posting during the Major League Baseball Home Run Derby, they're showing

01:01:41   tweets from guys like Justin Verlander who stunk up the goddamn game the next night,

01:01:46   by the way, ruined the American League chances of getting a World Series home field advantage.

01:01:51   Nice job, Verlander, you choker. Anyway. And just the fact that when you turn on the home

01:01:58   run derby and there's, on the show, while you're watching it, Justin Verlander's

01:02:04   showing up and CC Sabathia and these guys the the the magnitude of that sort

01:02:11   of public awareness of the service is unbelievable it's just truly

01:02:16   unbelievable I mean I think said this a couple times but the person or or team

01:02:21   at Twitter whose job it is to get hashtags on TV like those people need a

01:02:25   bonus yeah like they've it's a it's on the end you know it's on the backboard

01:02:29   of the NBA, it's on every commercial, it's on, my wife watches these shows where every

01:02:35   scene has a different hashtag and for amusement I looked at the tweets that were on that hashtag

01:02:42   and they were pretty hilarious, you know, a lot of like teenage girls and that kind

01:02:46   of stuff.

01:02:47   People know what it means though.

01:02:48   You show hash, hash sign, pound sign, and then a word and it's just, people know, oh,

01:02:54   that's a thing on Twitter and you can go to Twitter and type that in and see what everybody

01:02:57   else is typing.

01:02:58   It's an amazing, that's just astounding.

01:03:01   - And that tells me that Twitter, I mean, okay,

01:03:04   it could go away, 'cause maybe you probably

01:03:06   could say this about Myspace URLs a few years ago,

01:03:11   but it's gonna be hard to torch itself.

01:03:14   So even if they did, I think, piss off

01:03:18   a sizable population, I think that they would be okay.

01:03:21   I think that whatever losers that they,

01:03:24   whatever users they lose,

01:03:26   (laughing)

01:03:28   I think they'll gain that back pretty quickly.

01:03:32   Well, let me just stop here and do our second sponsor.

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01:06:25   you know, I've been using iTunes, of course has an equalizer and it makes music sound

01:06:31   great. But Spotify does not and even if you pay extra for the high quality music on Spotify,

01:06:37   it still sounds pretty muddy.

01:06:39   I have pretty nice speakers,

01:06:40   and it makes me not want to use Spotify,

01:06:44   'cause they don't have an equalizer,

01:06:45   or at least they didn't last time I looked.

01:06:47   - It works, it works.

01:06:48   - So I'm really excited to look for it.

01:06:49   Did you ever use, there was a great old

01:06:51   rogue Amoeba app called Detour?

01:06:53   - Yes.

01:06:54   - I used to love that app.

01:06:55   It reminds me a little of that.

01:06:56   It doesn't do quite the same thing,

01:06:58   but anything that makes your system audio sound better

01:07:01   is awesome in my book, so I'm pumped that I have it now.

01:07:04   - Yeah, and that's a terrific example,

01:07:06   a terrific example. Anything that doesn't anything listen to him door is another one

01:07:10   to where it's like, great, free music. Awesome. Oh, sounds like it's coming out of my fridge

01:07:16   or something like that. So or it's coming out of a speaker that you've got in a drawer.

01:07:22   Like clothes behind a drawer. No, it's great. And it is a perfect example is any app that

01:07:27   you listen to audio from itself doesn't have equalizer controls and you want to dittle

01:07:31   with it. Just get boom, it works across your whole system.

01:07:36   Have you seen the, I think it's HP has PC laptops

01:07:40   with Beats audio.

01:07:41   - Yes.

01:07:42   - I've never tried those, but I can't imagine

01:07:44   that actually is better.

01:07:46   I don't know, it always looks to me as like,

01:07:49   wow, this is kind of trashy.

01:07:51   - And there was a phone, wasn't there a phone that came--

01:07:53   - Yeah, because HTC bought Beats or bought Apple.

01:07:57   - Yes, HTC, yeah.

01:07:58   - I can't think of a better example of why HTC

01:08:02   is losing its, all the momentum it had built up,

01:08:05   the fact that it's gonna go out and buy beats.

01:08:08   Like that's just the,

01:08:10   it's such a lame mainstream type thing.

01:08:13   - Yeah, it doesn't seem like you needed to do that.

01:08:15   Just seems like just make the shit sound better.

01:08:17   - Right, exactly. - Just make it sound better.

01:08:19   Hire some audio guys and that's it.

01:08:23   You don't need to, I don't know, it just seemed weird to me.

01:08:26   - Yep.

01:08:27   - Let's talk tablets.

01:08:30   - Yes, let's, I've been thinking about them.

01:08:33   I had a dream.

01:08:34   I've been having weird dreams.

01:08:36   I don't know what that's about, but I had a weird dream, a Steve Jobs dream where I

01:08:42   had a five-inch iPad.

01:08:45   Every Steve Jobs dream, he yells at me about something stupid.

01:08:47   He's like, "Why do you have a five-inch iPad?

01:08:51   That's idiotic," or something like that.

01:08:53   I was in Korea a couple of months ago and that Galaxy Note is pretty big there, at least

01:09:03   in terms of literally in stores. Yeah, literally, it's quite big there. But it was in all the

01:09:09   windows and all the little cell phone shops and actually sell a lot of people using it.

01:09:14   You know, maybe that was just the name. I've heard that that's true. And I've because I've

01:09:18   made fun of the galaxy note that the galaxy note is a five inch phone that comes with

01:09:22   the stylus and it is truly enormous even if you've seen like a galaxy Nexus or something.

01:09:26   I mean, it's five inches is astounding. But it Samsung's reported you know, like what

01:09:32   what their best selling phones are worldwide

01:09:33   and it's up there.

01:09:34   And apparently it's really, really popular,

01:09:37   not that popular in the US,

01:09:38   but apparently really popular in Asia.

01:09:41   Where would you say you work, Korea?

01:09:42   - I was in Korea, which is the home of Samsung.

01:09:46   - Yeah.

01:09:46   - And so that was surprising to me.

01:09:49   And I think your take is right on the Dan Lyons post

01:09:52   that you linked to recently,

01:09:54   which is that the tweener sizes are interesting.

01:09:58   I would not wanna replace my iPhone with one,

01:10:01   But I could see myself using a tablet in more places if it were not so bulky.

01:10:07   Well, and another way, I just want to – I filed a note from 15 minutes ago on the show

01:10:15   when we were talking about 11 versus 13-inch Airs.

01:10:18   And I think that this purported – I still – I've used the word "purported" more

01:10:23   times in the last two weeks than I think the last year combined.

01:10:26   But this purported iPad mini that's 7.85 inches diagonal.

01:10:30   To me, why would they do that?

01:10:32   Well, to me, it's why do they make an 11 and a 13-inch Air?

01:10:35   - Hmm. - You know?

01:10:36   And everything I've heard is that the 13-inch Air

01:10:39   is the best seller.

01:10:40   I like the 11-inch, though.

01:10:43   I really do.

01:10:43   My thinking is, number one,

01:10:45   my eyes are at least still good enough

01:10:47   that I don't mind how small the screen is.

01:10:50   And two, my thinking is,

01:10:52   if you're gonna go portable, go portable.

01:10:54   You know, and I want a big-ass 30-inch display on my desk,

01:10:58   and I want the smallest possible thing

01:10:59   to use on an airplane and on my lap and stuff like that.

01:11:02   - And that's why I bought the,

01:11:03   that's the exact conversation I had

01:11:05   with the guy at the Apple store

01:11:06   when I bought the 11 inch Air.

01:11:08   He's like, you know, well he's not allowed to give me advice

01:11:11   but I was like fuck it man, I'm going with the smallest

01:11:14   this one possible, which was,

01:11:16   that used to be my phone buying strategy too.

01:11:17   It was like which Sony Ericsson feature phone can I buy

01:11:20   that's literally the smallest phone possible.

01:11:23   And Canon little digital cameras too.

01:11:26   So it makes sense.

01:11:28   And I don't think that seven inch tablets

01:11:31   have sold poorly because they're seven inch tablets.

01:11:34   I think it's just 'cause most of them

01:11:37   have terrible software and they suck.

01:11:39   Like I think that, well now, I'm with you,

01:11:43   I'm calling it the eight inch iPad.

01:11:46   If it comes out, I think it will be phenomenally successful,

01:11:51   not just because of the portability,

01:11:53   which I think, people who think about this stuff

01:11:56   we'll get that, but I think the price thing

01:11:58   is really gonna be big.

01:11:59   For the same reason that you linked to my site this week,

01:12:02   and you think that the main reason that the iPod blew up

01:12:07   so big was the Mini and the Nano,

01:12:11   I think that that's kinda what made it so mainstream

01:12:14   was that it's cheap enough that you can kinda buy it,

01:12:18   and yeah, it's not gonna fit all your music,

01:12:20   but it doesn't matter, 'cause most people don't buy

01:12:24   They buy albums anyway, they buy singles, so what do they care?

01:12:26   I remember, well at the time, that was the big thing with when the iPod mini shipped

01:12:32   and it was $50 difference from the lower end bigger white iPod, which I think was 15 gigabytes

01:12:41   at the time.

01:12:42   So maybe I'm wrong.

01:12:43   I think it was like $249 for the mini and $299 for the 15 gigabyte thing.

01:12:49   And everybody was like, "Why in the world wouldn't you spend 50 more bucks and get…"

01:12:53   I think it wasn't even five gigabytes, it was four gigabytes on the mini.

01:12:57   You'd get more than three times the storage.

01:13:00   But I've heard this numerous times is that the average, I don't know what the number

01:13:04   is at now, but that the average iPod user only had like two gigabytes of music.

01:13:09   Like the whole library.

01:13:10   The whole library.

01:13:11   Absolutely.

01:13:12   And at that point, most people, you know, and it was skewed, the average was skewed

01:13:16   heavily by the people with huge libraries and that the masses that like the teenagers

01:13:23   - The median, yeah, the median was probably

01:13:25   like a gig or something.

01:13:26   - Oh my, and the teenagers, they just listen

01:13:28   to the same 30 songs over and over again.

01:13:31   - Exactly, and I think that we, like we geek,

01:13:35   old school Mac people, we rationalize every $50 we spend.

01:13:40   But in normal people, they go to the store,

01:13:42   they're like, I kinda want an iPad,

01:13:44   oh, this one's 50 bucks cheaper, I'm buying it.

01:13:49   And also I think that $250, $200 price is actually meaningful.

01:13:53   Like that's a kind of, you're getting into impulse purchase range there.

01:13:57   I think Apple hit it out of the park with the original iPod in 2001 where they said

01:14:02   "A thousand songs in your pocket."

01:14:05   And people hear that and almost everybody hears "A thousand songs on a device that's

01:14:09   on your..."

01:14:10   Well I'll never, I don't have a thousand songs.

01:14:13   Whether they did or not they have no idea but that number was big enough.

01:14:16   That's a hundred CDs.

01:14:17   That's like you know.

01:14:18   even when they when they reduced it, the original iPod had five

01:14:22   gigabyte drive and the first iPod mini and we had a four

01:14:25   gigabyte drive, but they had since switched the default

01:14:28   format from mp3 to AAC and got like the the compression

01:14:35   increase was enough that they could still say 1000 songs and

01:14:38   which is good enough that they've never in 12 years or 11

01:14:42   years, they've you know, 1000s they already had the right number

01:14:46   of storage space.

01:14:48   And was it the mini or the nano that Steve pulled out of like the little tiny pocket

01:14:53   in the jeans?

01:14:54   The nano.

01:14:55   Okay, yeah.

01:14:56   When the nano came out, that just blew my mind.

01:14:57   I was like, how is it that small?

01:15:00   That's crazy.

01:15:01   I got to make a note to ask about that because I still think that his jeans had to be rigged

01:15:05   because he wears 501s and I've tried that with a nano and it doesn't quite fit.

01:15:09   I think that he had like a rigged pair of jeans.

01:15:12   Like the width, it wasn't cheating width wise, but I still think that in terms of the depth,

01:15:16   I think you had to have a rigged pair of jeans.

01:15:19   - That'd be a great forensic look back into the--

01:15:23   - And for people who don't think that I look

01:15:25   into the critical issues surrounding Apple Incorporated,

01:15:29   I'm on the case. - Is it Zap-router?

01:15:30   Is that how you pronounce it?

01:15:31   Yeah, I would do a Zap-router of the--

01:15:34   - Zap-router, I believe. - Zap-router, okay.

01:15:36   So one thing that you said a long time ago

01:15:40   that's intrigued me is the potential someday

01:15:43   for a bigger iPad, and that's actually something

01:15:46   that I would love.

01:15:47   I'm staring right now at my switched off 27 inch iMac

01:15:52   across the room and I'm like, man, I would love

01:15:54   like a, I don't know, a 18 inch iPad on my lap on the couch.

01:15:59   That would be kind of cool.

01:16:01   You could do all sorts of stuff with that.

01:16:04   It would probably be expensive and fragile

01:16:06   and that sort of stuff, but I would pay 1,000 bucks for that.

01:16:09   That'd be pretty cool.

01:16:11   - Yeah, and I think long term it's inevitable

01:16:15   because I really do think that the,

01:16:18   you know, I'll group it with the iPhone,

01:16:22   but I really think that iOS is to,

01:16:26   the computing landscape today,

01:16:28   what the Mac was to PCs in 1984.

01:16:32   And don't get obsessed, if you went back historically

01:16:35   and wanted to argue, traveled back in time to 1985

01:16:38   and got in an argument with John Dvorak

01:16:41   about the future of computing, like,

01:16:43   Don't get hung up on the fact that the Mac you have today,

01:16:48   this is 1985, is only nine inches in black and white,

01:16:52   and it doesn't even ship with a hard drive,

01:16:54   it's only got a floppy drive.

01:16:56   Just take a step back and think about the way

01:16:58   that technology is inevitably advancing.

01:17:00   Like the screen is not gonna be nine inches

01:17:02   in black and white forever, right?

01:17:04   The same thing with the iOS.

01:17:06   Don't get hung up on the fact that the iPad

01:17:10   shipped at 9.7 inches.

01:17:13   It's just a starting point.

01:17:15   I think it's going to go in both directions.

01:17:18   Although I think that the big difference though is that I think that they can do this.

01:17:22   I really do think that they can go to 8 inches, parenthesis 7.85 inches exactly, without changing

01:17:30   the software at all.

01:17:31   I think that apps that are 1024 by 768 apps that run on the iPad today will just run at

01:17:38   24 by 768, two inches smaller diagonally, about what was it was it work I think

01:17:45   it's 80% area or something like that or 66% of the area that it'll work out. I

01:17:51   think if they go bigger though or when they go bigger I do think that will be

01:17:56   one of those developer schisms where you know existing apps will run in a in a

01:18:03   mode where they're blown up but to really take advantage of it you're gonna

01:18:07   to have to start over.

01:18:12   You're going to have to do a new size.

01:18:13   Well, also at that point you might want more than one app

01:18:16   on the screen at a time, or at least multiple windows.

01:18:19   Yeah, something like that.

01:18:21   Which is the interesting thing from Windows 8.

01:18:23   I mean, I don't have that much to say about it,

01:18:26   but to me the idea that they're already kind of thinking

01:18:28   about that sort of stuff, how to have multiple apps

01:18:32   on screen at the same time.

01:18:35   Easily, by far and away, I think the single most intriguing idea

01:18:36   in all of Windows 8 as a tablet OS is the, what do they call it? They don't call it docking

01:18:41   snapping? I think they call it, you snap it in?

01:18:44   Yeah, the snaps. Right.

01:18:45   Yeah, that and then the way that those apps can talk to each other, whatever that was

01:18:49   called through the, I don't know, the handoffs or whatever.

01:18:52   So you can have, you can have your email taking up a list of one-third and a web browser taking

01:18:58   up the other two-thirds. And so you could sit there and as you read your email and people

01:19:03   say I mean a huge part of my email is people sending me links and so one of the inefficiencies

01:19:10   of going through my email on the iPad is that I'm constantly flipping between mail and Safari

01:19:18   and back totally you know it's not a huge inconvenience but I can totally imagine you

01:19:25   know how doing it with just those two things on screen a narrow skinny column of email

01:19:30   messages and a square, a nice wide square of web browser content would make it way easier

01:19:36   and more efficient to go through emails on a tablet.

01:19:41   And you know, so I watch a lot of video on the iPad, but it would be nice to have Twitter

01:19:45   open at the same time too, you know, for commercial breaks or whatever. You know, if I'm watching

01:19:50   the baseball game, it's kind of annoying. You have to stop the MLB TV app, you've

01:19:54   got to quit the stream, open up Twitter, you know, it's…

01:19:58   Yeah, another perfect example and maybe even a better example of something that can really get by with a skinny

01:20:03   Sort of yeah one-third sliver of the window. Yep easily

01:20:07   I think the best idea that they've had and you know, they can hang their hat on the fact that they're first

01:20:12   Nobody else's has solved that

01:20:15   And they're doing it in I think in a very smart way where it's not like an arbitrary

01:20:20   You get to move that divider around and make it 40 60 or 35

01:20:25   65 it's nope it's one-third two-thirds

01:20:28   I think but whatever it is it snaps into place and you don't have to decide and

01:20:32   Developers can take advantage of that and they know they only have to code it to take advantage of this you know

01:20:37   These two proportions, maybe I'll be full screen. Maybe I'll be two-thirds. Maybe I'll be one-third. That's it

01:20:43   so this is kind of looking bigger picture at this but

01:20:48   Why do you think that I mean you know we?

01:20:54   Why do you think the iPad is so successful

01:20:57   and the other ones aren't?

01:20:58   But do you think that it's actually possible

01:21:01   that this iPad and iOS platform theory concept thing

01:21:06   is actually, that Apple can actually hold on

01:21:08   and be a winner with this for the long term?

01:21:11   Is Apple now good enough at winning

01:21:14   that they can really follow through with this?

01:21:17   - I do, I do think so.

01:21:18   And I think that they've gotten it to the point

01:21:21   where they have to keep innovating.

01:21:24   And I do think it is institution,

01:21:27   I think it is one of the core values of the company,

01:21:30   is a sort of healthy paranoia

01:21:33   that you don't take success for granted

01:21:36   and think you're done and that you keep pushing.

01:21:38   And that, you know, I really think that the way,

01:21:41   you know, and it was so much smaller stakes,

01:21:42   as important as the iPod was

01:21:45   to Apple's resurgence as a company,

01:21:47   and the way that it really made them

01:21:50   a mass market company and got people who never bought anything from Apple before to buy a

01:21:55   couple of things from Apple.

01:21:57   The way that I remember going to the mall in 2003 and hearing teenagers talk about going

01:22:04   to the iPod store.

01:22:05   Dave Asprey Yeah, it really made the retail stores.

01:22:07   Dave Asprey Right.

01:22:08   It really helped make the retail stores a success and the retail stores have become

01:22:12   the thing.

01:22:13   But in the grand scheme of things, the amount of money they made selling iPods pales in

01:22:16   comparison to the money they're making now selling iPhones and iPads.

01:22:19   it's smaller stakes. But the way that they evolved those iPods year after year after year, every year,

01:22:28   either shrinking them, introducing sibling form factors, like where in addition to you know, we're

01:22:36   not just getting rid of the old one, we'll keep the old one, if you want us 80 gigabytes of storage,

01:22:42   that's the one to get. But now we've got this new one that is thinner. And now we're adding color.

01:22:46   and now we're adding video.

01:22:47   And now, you know, even make ridiculous,

01:22:49   they'll even make mistakes.

01:22:51   They'll even do things like make one

01:22:52   that didn't have any buttons,

01:22:53   and then a year later be like,

01:22:54   "Oh, I got that." - Yeah, or the fat nano.

01:22:56   - Right.

01:22:56   And kept aggressively pushing the price down, right?

01:23:01   So that you could keep, year after year,

01:23:03   you could keep getting one for $50 less

01:23:06   until all of a sudden,

01:23:06   and then all of a sudden they'd hit these marks.

01:23:09   And I, you know, it's one of those things

01:23:10   where Apple I think has been, you know,

01:23:12   often surprisingly open in public. I believe it was Schiller one time on stage who just said like

01:23:19   $1.99 is a magic price point. And, you know, now that once we hit it, it, you know, and then it like

01:23:27   next slide, it was like a graph of like sales. And, you know, the sales just shot up because

01:23:32   it's a magic price point in consumers minds. And we're so happy to be able to say this year,

01:23:37   we're going to $1.49, you know, and just sold gazillions of them. I think it really bodes well

01:23:42   for their future with this stuff, that they're not going to—they're not stuck on this

01:23:47   idea, I don't think, that the iPad starts at $499 or now it's $399.

01:23:54   I think they'll be aggressive at moving down in price.

01:23:57   I think so too.

01:23:59   If they can hit $200 or $250 with the smaller iPad if it actually happens, I think it's

01:24:05   going to be huge.

01:24:08   I love the retina display.

01:24:09   I think most people probably could care less for if they can save 200 bucks.

01:24:13   I think it could easily sell at least as many or maybe even like twice as more big iPads

01:24:22   in addition to whatever big iPads they sell.

01:24:24   So …

01:24:25   Dave Asprey And clearly, I mean, no doubt in my mind,

01:24:27   I think they're going to do it.

01:24:28   I think they're going to do it this year.

01:24:29   I don't think it's going to have a retina display.

01:24:31   I think it's going to have a 1024x768 display.

01:24:34   But obviously, either a year from now or two years from now, they're going to come out

01:24:37   with what assuming the thing sells well it's they're gonna come out with one

01:24:40   with a retina display

01:24:42   it's a you know no brainer future okay

01:24:43   here's the other thing that makes me think that they're gonna do it and

01:24:46   they're gonna be really really aggressive on price

01:24:48   is

01:24:50   that event they had in new york last winter for textbooks

01:24:54   and the i book store which is all about education

01:24:58   and the big catch with that whole initiative is this is great these this

01:25:03   whole thing sounds great. The prices are great. It's a great idea. I think it's clearly a

01:25:09   great idea for the future of textbooks. But how do you get this into schools if you need

01:25:15   to buy a $4.99 device for every kid to get started? Right? And I think that for the education

01:25:21   market alone, getting it to a radically lower price point to get in the door is huge. And

01:25:29   combine that with the fact that who would be best suited

01:25:33   for a device where the on-screen tap targets

01:25:37   are a little bit smaller and text is rendered smaller.

01:25:40   - Is it funny that I was just thinking of saying that too?

01:25:42   Yeah, exactly, like it's--

01:25:44   - Kids, right? - Yeah, exactly.

01:25:46   - So who's got the eyes that are best suited

01:25:48   to reading a thing that maybe ideally

01:25:50   is best rendered at 9.7 inches

01:25:53   but is now rendered at 7.85 inches?

01:25:55   Kids, right?

01:25:56   Who's got the fingers that are gonna work better

01:25:58   on a keyboard that's smaller.

01:25:59   Kids.

01:26:00   - Yep, no, totally.

01:26:01   Kids, and also women too.

01:26:03   Remember the Palm?

01:26:04   Palm had like a smaller trio,

01:26:06   and that was huge with women.

01:26:08   I forgot what it was called, but kids and,

01:26:11   I don't know, I don't think I'll get one,

01:26:15   but I think they'll be awesome.

01:26:16   - Yeah.

01:26:17   - Maybe I'll get one, who the hell knows?

01:26:18   But I don't think the Google thing's gonna sell

01:26:21   that well though.

01:26:22   I haven't tried it, the Nexus 7 or whatever.

01:26:25   I just, they don't really have good retail distribution

01:26:30   and I think that it's gotten a lot of attention

01:26:35   in the tech press because it's Google

01:26:36   so people feel obligated to write about it.

01:26:39   And I'm sure it's fine, but I don't think

01:26:42   that many people are gonna buy it.

01:26:43   - And I wonder if it doesn't sell well,

01:26:48   that one of the things people might draw from,

01:26:51   they're like, well, it should sell well

01:26:53   because they finally licked a lot of these interface problems,

01:26:56   that the interface is better, it looks better.

01:26:59   There's no doubt in my mind,

01:27:00   I believe that the thing actually scrolls a lot better

01:27:03   because even Android 4.0 on the Galaxy Nexus phone

01:27:08   really solved a lot,

01:27:10   it's certainly not up to Apple caliber

01:27:12   for animation smoothness and stuff like that,

01:27:14   but it was a lot closer.

01:27:15   They really got over a hump.

01:27:17   And if they really worked a lot on between 4.0 and 4.1

01:27:20   on improving that, it should at least be good enough.

01:27:23   But I think that it gets back to the old days in the 90s where Apple struggled with the

01:27:29   Mac against Windows despite having a superior interface, that that's not enough.

01:27:35   No, A, a lot of people don't even notice that sort of thing or don't care.

01:27:40   And B, it's like maybe their ninth priority on the list of things.

01:27:45   First of all, I did a poll at Business Insider, I don't know, a couple of years ago, and

01:27:51   I asked, "If you're going to buy a tablet, where would you buy it?

01:27:56   Would you buy it from Best Buy?

01:27:57   Would you buy it from a carrier store?

01:27:59   Would you buy it from whatever?"

01:28:00   And by far, the biggest response was, "I'll go to the Apple Store."

01:28:04   It's like, "Okay.

01:28:06   Well, you can't buy a Google tablet at the Apple Store."

01:28:13   I think it's great.

01:28:14   I'm glad that Google is doing stuff like this.

01:28:17   Good for them.

01:28:18   I don't think anyone is going to be picking that one up.

01:28:21   I want to do a follow up. I don't have a huge number of points, but I want to do a follow

01:28:25   up to the iPad mini piece that I wrote earlier this week with a couple more points of contention

01:28:30   from readers and other people who are out there. One of them is still this idea that

01:28:38   Apple wouldn't do a new device without a retina display, that all the new devices come with

01:28:44   retina displays, and so they're not going to do it without retina. I don't think that's

01:28:48   true. And the way I look at it, and I think I added this to the article after I published

01:28:53   it, but that the better way to think of it is they've never shipped a new iOS form factor

01:28:59   that started retina. They start non-retina and then as they groove their ability to hit

01:29:05   that price point two years later, three years later, they come out with a retina. I don't

01:29:10   think they'll hesitate. And I think it'll help establish it that look, the best one

01:29:14   This one is the big one, that's the one that's Retina.

01:29:16   This one is the cheap one.

01:29:18   - Right, and they're still selling,

01:29:21   they're very happily selling the 3S, which is 3GS,

01:29:24   which is kind of crappy compared to a 4S.

01:29:28   So I don't think that, I don't think they care that much,

01:29:32   and they're still selling the Air with a non-Retina display

01:29:35   and every Mac except one of them.

01:29:38   And by the way, this is Tim Cook,

01:29:40   the guy who proudly loves his iPod Shuffle.

01:29:42   So not everything is about, and I think that is one of the differences between the old

01:29:47   Apple and the new Apple.

01:29:50   It's not necessarily that they want to sell flimsy stuff, but not everything has to be

01:29:55   the absolute best thing that you could buy because that's not the way to the mass market.

01:29:59   So…

01:30:00   What about the "came out on the same day" reports last week from Bloomberg in the Wall

01:30:05   Street Journal that Apple is going to do a smaller iPad?

01:30:11   That to me reeks of a leak, a deliberate leak from Apple.

01:30:15   - I think it has to be, I mean, you know,

01:30:18   they like you, they don't like me so much,

01:30:20   but Apple PR is the best in the business.

01:30:23   I mean, they are--

01:30:25   - They really, they don't like you?

01:30:27   - Nah, I don't know.

01:30:28   - They dislike you or they don't like you?

01:30:32   - Somewhere between those two, I think.

01:30:34   - Interesting, I'll put in a good word for you.

01:30:36   - Yeah, thanks.

01:30:37   No, I don't know, maybe it's--

01:30:39   do like me, but they I don't get stuff like that. They don't they

01:30:43   don't give stuff. People ask me people ask me stuff like that.

01:30:46   And when I find out stuff like I do, I've heard stuff about the

01:30:48   iPad mini. I never heard stuff about the iPad mini from Apple

01:30:51   PR. I've heard stuff from like I call them the rank and file. I

01:30:55   almost think that there might even be like a I don't know if

01:31:00   there's like, sec type stuff, but I think there Yeah, some of

01:31:04   the stuff about like material disclosures have to go to a I

01:31:08   - I don't actually know, I'm making this up,

01:31:10   but it seems like they have to give it

01:31:12   to like the Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg

01:31:14   or something that has like enough reach

01:31:17   that it's gonna be actually widely disclosed

01:31:19   so there's no like insider trading type stuff.

01:31:23   I don't know.

01:31:23   I may have completely invented that in my head.

01:31:25   - I don't know, I wouldn't be surprised

01:31:27   if there's ramifications there.

01:31:29   But to me it's Apple's version of FUD, right?

01:31:32   Fear, uncertainty, doubt.

01:31:33   Like it is not coincidental that they,

01:31:36   that the two, I would say, I, Bloomberg and, well Wall Street Journal is clearly the most

01:31:44   read business publication. Bloomberg is certainly one of the most read and certainly they're

01:31:49   both very highly respected. And in terms of a relationship with Apple and previous leaks

01:31:55   of stuff like that, they've both, you know, they're both aces. Bloomberg was the first

01:32:01   one that got the story that Steve Jobs was having a liver transplant, the Wall Street

01:32:06   Journal.

01:32:07   But I don't know if that was a leak.

01:32:08   I don't think so either.

01:32:09   I don't think so either.

01:32:10   You actually called me on the phone.

01:32:11   We talked on the phone.

01:32:12   Yeah.

01:32:13   That's weird.

01:32:14   That was like…

01:32:15   I actually don't think that was a leak.

01:32:16   I think that was good reporting.

01:32:17   I'm just saying no reputation-wise though.

01:32:19   No, totally.

01:32:20   Absolutely.

01:32:21   Those are the kinds of places where, you know, if it's in print there, you can almost reasonably

01:32:26   assume that it's completely true.

01:32:27   Well, my favorite example of that is with the journal, which was before WWDC 2000 whatever,

01:32:33   when Apple was going to announce the switch to Intel, which I didn't believe. And I wrote

01:32:38   a piece. It's probably one of the best like, you know, haha, John Gruber has to eat claim

01:32:42   chowder. I was a skeptic. I really was until Friday before the WWDC keynote. And the journal

01:32:49   said Apple's going to switch to Intel. And I wrote a piece on during Fireball. I was

01:32:53   like, I don't know how to interpret this because if the Wall Street Journal says it's going

01:32:57   to happen. I think it's going to happen because they're not saying it might happen.

01:33:00   They're saying it's going to happen and they're the journal and they're never

01:33:02   wrong. Or they wouldn't be wrong unless they had a – they wouldn't publish this

01:33:06   if they didn't know it was true. But on the other hand, as far as I know, this is

01:33:10   technically impossible. There's no way Apple can do this unless they've figured out a

01:33:14   way to emulate Power PC software at full speed.

01:33:19   And so in a sense, I was right because that's actually what they did do with Rosetta where

01:33:22   where they had this emulator that ran at heretofore unbelievably efficient binary translation

01:33:32   performance. Way, way better than like the old 68K emulator on PowerPC, etc. like that.

01:33:41   But the fact that the journal printed it made me, it got me to wrap my mind around the fact

01:33:45   that it was going to happen.

01:33:50   One lesson I've learned from Apple is never underestimate

01:33:53   their ability to do something that seemed physically

01:33:56   and scientifically impossible the day before.

01:33:58   Which was like how I felt about the iPhone

01:34:01   and the retina iPhone 4 when that came out too.

01:34:04   I was like, "Oh my God, you couldn't even do that?"

01:34:07   Like I didn't even know.

01:34:08   But then also, but didn't the Wall Street Journal report

01:34:11   this year that Apple was going to launch

01:34:14   some like developer analytics software at WWDC?

01:34:18   - I don't remember. - That was weird.

01:34:19   - Yeah, there was something about that.

01:34:21   - Oh, I don't remember.

01:34:22   - But anyways, I was saying,

01:34:24   as in a lot of the stuff they do,

01:34:28   they're really brilliant at PR

01:34:31   and at doing little things like that,

01:34:33   at perfectly timing their launch dates

01:34:35   to come between this thing and that thing.

01:34:38   I don't know who decided that Michael Dell

01:34:42   would be the guy who gets screwed

01:34:43   by giving his CES keynote at the exact time of the iPhone.

01:34:47   (laughing)

01:34:48   iPhone keynote, but that was just, I mean, in hindsight, that was brilliant. A lot of

01:34:52   the stuff they do like that is really smart. So, you know, I would absolutely not be surprised

01:34:57   at all if that was deliberate.

01:34:59   And, you know, one last thing before we wrap up the show that I want to run by you on this,

01:35:04   and this is the idea that the $199 price point, and I could totally see that Apple's 7.85

01:35:15   tablet, maybe it'll start at $249. I can't believe it would be $299. I really can't.

01:35:20   I think it has to be $249 if it's not $199. But I think they could do one. If they can

01:35:25   do $199, they will do it because they don't want to leave that price umbrella for these

01:35:29   other tablets like the Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire or something like that.

01:35:34   But the argument I've gotten, I've seen it on Twitter from a couple of smart people,

01:35:37   and I've gotten it in an email too, is that they can't sell a $199 iPad at 8 inches next

01:35:43   to a 199 iPod touch that's so much smaller that if this thing is eight inches and 199

01:35:51   how can this thing that's so much smaller cost 199 to and they can't really reduce the

01:35:56   price of the iPod touch by that much I don't I don't believe that they maybe they can well

01:36:02   I don't think they need to though I think yeah I don't think they do either they're

01:36:05   totally different things I mean one is something you give to a kid to play to play games on

01:36:09   the funnest iPod ever, and then another one, maybe not.

01:36:14   I wouldn't worry about that.

01:36:15   That's the kind of thing, the nitpicky type thing,

01:36:18   like when I used to write articles saying,

01:36:20   of course Apple's gonna do a Verizon iPhone.

01:36:23   They have to, and people will go,

01:36:24   no, that means they would have to support CDMA.

01:36:27   That's adding more complexity.

01:36:29   Apple doesn't do complexity, and it was like,

01:36:31   they'll do complexity for a 90 million subscriber carrier.

01:36:35   You're damn right they will.

01:36:36   Right, it's not just like the one and only CDMA carrier in the US was, you know, Bum

01:36:44   Phillips.

01:36:45   It's not Metro PCS, sorry, US Cellular or whatever in Chicago they have there.

01:36:50   Yeah, with a million subscribers.

01:36:53   Yeah, this is, so I'm not so worried about that.

01:36:57   I think what actually might be bigger is what Amazon announces later this year.

01:37:03   Oh, I definitely think so.

01:37:04   How cheap is the Kindle Fire going to get?

01:37:05   Is it A, is it going to be much better or only a little better?

01:37:08   And B, will it be 100 bucks or something like that?

01:37:12   Because there was a great, Farhad Manju, of course, always writes smart stuff, but his

01:37:17   thing about Amazon yesterday was smart.

01:37:20   And he's written some good stuff about Amazon recently.

01:37:22   But as we've seen, they will ruthlessly do crazy stuff just to do it.

01:37:28   And if Apple has to respond, I don't know how much they would actually have to respond

01:37:33   to a $99 tablet, but it might force them to make it $199 instead of $249.

01:37:42   The other thing is they have so much money and there's only a finite number of these

01:37:46   they can make and sell.

01:37:49   The original iPhone, I think the first time you ever linked to me is when I wrote some

01:37:53   article about how Apple would have to sell twice as many iPhones to make the same amount

01:37:58   a profit on the iPhone one after they did the price cut or something like that.

01:38:03   And yeah, whatever, it doesn't matter because they only made like 10 million of them.

01:38:07   So who even cares?

01:38:09   This is the first iPad mini or whatever they'll call it.

01:38:13   They'll probably make 10, 15 million of them.

01:38:17   If the margin sucks on them, it doesn't matter anyway because the iPhone has such a huge

01:38:22   margin.

01:38:24   And they have, what, $70 billion in the bank or something like that or more?

01:38:28   So who cares?

01:38:29   I think they'll do whatever they think they need to do to do it right and not necessarily

01:38:35   base it on profitability or something like that.

01:38:39   Right.

01:38:40   Well, and the other thing too with the holes, can they sell it alongside the iPod Touch

01:38:44   at almost the same price?

01:38:45   And I think the difference with these is it's different than with laptops.

01:38:50   laptops the expectation that smaller is cheaper makes sense but that's because

01:38:55   the minimum size and I think the 11 inch air is about as small as I would want a

01:38:59   Mac to be I think that the the little like 8 inch and 9 inch PC laptops are

01:39:04   way too small yeah but even if they did if Apple were to do a 9 inch MacBook Air

01:39:11   it would probably be even cheaper than the 11 inch but that's because it's the

01:39:14   these expenses the display is smaller and it's cheaper whereas the iPhone and

01:39:20   and iPod Touch are so small that there's an incredible amount of cost into just getting

01:39:26   the thing to be that small.

01:39:29   And –

01:39:30   Yeah, the miniaturization –

01:39:31   Yeah, and I think – and I'm stealing this from somebody else on Twitter who pointed

01:39:34   this out. I think it might have been my friend, Nevin Mergin, but who pointed out that –

01:39:37   Love that guy.

01:39:38   You really shouldn't think about when you compare the fact that the iPad costs more

01:39:42   than the iPhone, you're locked into this US-centric contract pricing. In the rest of

01:39:49   the world where lots and lots of people buy their phones without a contract the

01:39:53   iPhone cost more than the iPad and way more yeah an unlocked iPhone costs more

01:40:00   than an iPad even I bought an unlocked iPhone and it cost more than well six

01:40:04   seven hundred bucks it's like 900 would you get the big one you know it's like

01:40:08   yeah totally yeah so I have a question what what what Apple brand do you think

01:40:14   will last longer, iPod or Mac?

01:40:17   They've already phased out iPod as an app,

01:40:26   so that seems to me like they didn't care about it enough

01:40:30   to make the media app any longer.

01:40:32   But I always wonder, 'cause it's like,

01:40:37   they still sell, they sell more iPods than Macs still,

01:40:40   but you need a Mac to make iOS software.

01:40:43   brand which one will be an active SKU longer I hate to say it but I'm gonna

01:40:51   say iPod yeah yeah that's that's what I would have picked I think now maybe Mac

01:40:58   but I don't know I don't know any I don't want to I know the reason the main

01:41:03   reason the Mac exists is is that it does these things that you can't do on the

01:41:08   iPad or can't do as well on the iPad including the fact that you needed to

01:41:13   write iPad software that's not gonna be forever like you will have you know

01:41:17   sooner than they're enough sooner than all of us think you'll be able to write

01:41:21   your apps on the iPad and maybe you'll require your hypothetical 15-inch iPad

01:41:27   yeah how do I run flash and the other thing I was gonna ask you it's a good

01:41:33   - That's a good question though.

01:41:34   That's a really good question.

01:41:35   - Yeah.

01:41:36   - Which brand do you think will be around the longest?

01:41:40   I think the single brand that they have

01:41:42   that might outlive us all is iPad.

01:41:46   I can't imagine.

01:41:48   I think iPad is already at a point where it's here forever.

01:41:51   - Especially if it continues to be successful

01:41:54   in the way it has been.

01:41:55   The phone, who knows what's gonna happen

01:42:00   if it doesn't work in China

01:42:02   if Huawei knocks them? Well, the thing that would have me bet against the iPhone brand

01:42:09   is that I can foresee a future where some kind of networking technology exists that

01:42:14   obliterates, just completely disrupts and annihilates the carriers. And it's just this,

01:42:20   you know, it's the equivalent of Wi-Fi. It's some other kind of IP over the air with sufficient

01:42:26   range that, you know, the problem with going Wi-Fi only now is that you can't get phone

01:42:31   calls if you're not on a Wi-Fi network. If you're in your car or whatever, you can't

01:42:36   get calls or anything. Whereas if there was some kind of super long-range wireless thing

01:42:40   that – I could just totally see that happening where we don't call them phones anymore.

01:42:45   You're not dealing with AT&T or Verizon or anything. You're dealing with this new

01:42:48   thing and therefore the iPhone brand goes away. Apple still makes something that size,

01:42:54   but it's called something else.

01:42:55   Steve: It's called the iTouch.

01:42:56   Dave Bausch I don't know. I wouldn't bet on the iPhone

01:42:59   brand.

01:43:00   Yeah, no that makes sense or phone calls become something, you know voice tweets or something like that. I don't know

01:43:06   Interesting. Do you do you get into any of this like wearable computer stuff?

01:43:11   Like I saw you backed a couple of those Kickstarter watch things

01:43:14   But like do you care about the Nike fuel band or anything like that? I don't even know. What is that?

01:43:18   I don't know what that is. Okay. Well, I might I don't know. I think there's a future in that stuff

01:43:23   I I don't know what it is. I backed the I also backed the pebble watch. I think it's calm

01:43:27   Yeah, I think that's the one I'm thinking of. I don't even know where they did. They sending them out yet

01:43:32   I back these I still haven't got my elevation doc yet. I've backed these. Yeah, I haven't either

01:43:36   I haven't know what's gonna be first the new iPhone with the new doc or right?

01:43:40   I back all these Kickstarter prod

01:43:43   Projects and I'm glad to do it

01:43:45   But it's actually kind of a nice surprise because it takes them long enough to ship the product that I kind of forget about it

01:43:50   And then it's like totally I'm getting a present from my former self. Yeah, it's like thank you 2011 John Gruber

01:43:57   what a very thoughtful gift this is an awesome doc for my iPhone yeah I

01:44:02   completely forgot about it all right I'm gonna call it a show yeah let's do that

01:44:08   Dan Fromer thank you so much people can can can and should follow you at splat

01:44:14   f.com where you write you're also writing it read write web we're gonna

01:44:19   keep our eyes open for your your big feature on Iceland Iceland next week I'm

01:44:26   I'm looking forward to that.

01:44:29   From Dome, @fromdome on Twitter.

01:44:32   And I want to thank our sponsors again.

01:44:34   We've got Boom, this very cool utility for your Mac that boosts audio volume and provides

01:44:40   a system-wide equalizer.

01:44:44   And we've got the Adventures of Alex, electricity, a super cool sort of combo interactive book

01:44:52   game for the iPad.

01:44:55   and you can find that on online

01:44:58   at the App Store

01:44:59   the adventures of Alex, electricity. Thanks!

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