186: Replacing WWDC
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Welcome to Under the Radar, a show about independent iOS app development.
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I'm Marco Arment.
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And I'm David Smith.
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Under the Radar is never longer than 30 minutes, so let's get started.
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As we record now, the coronavirus known as COVID-19 is sweeping the media,
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and it's spreading around the world, and it's not in massive numbers in most parts of the world yet,
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but certainly there's reason for much of the world to be very cautious at this point.
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And so in the wake of that, right now many large conferences are being canceled.
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Facebook just canceled their F8 conference for--is it F8 or F8? Whatever it is.
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Who cares? For this year.
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Google just announced yesterday that Google I/O is canceled for this year, which occurs in May.
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There's been a bunch of other large cancellations of large conferences.
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And so right now there's pretty significant and I think very plausible speculation
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that Apple might cancel WWDC this year, which is scheduled to occur probably only a few weeks after Google I/O.
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It is seeming like--there's a bunch of particulars about this particular virus that's spreading
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that I think make it so that it's probably not going to be well-contained or resolved quickly.
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There's a long gestation period and everything, so it's probably going to be a while before this is under control,
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because making a bunch of companies and people rethink things like unnecessary travel or large group events.
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And so I think--in my opinion, I suspect WWDC is already canceled and they're just kind of making other arrangements
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and they'll probably not announce the cancellation until the other arrangements are ready to be announced and finalized.
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And so I thought it would be useful this week to talk about what this might mean for the community, for Apple, for developers,
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and what the alternatives are and how that might help anybody moving forward,
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and what this means moving forward if, at least for this year, there's probably no big tech conferences.
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And that maybe in future years this might--it might cause changes that might affect future years as well.
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So what do you think?
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Yeah, so I think at this point it seems very unlikely that an event like WWDC is going to happen anytime soon.
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Even just the--and I think the reason for that is probably even an interesting thing to just briefly touch on,
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because there's obviously the risk is that if you take people from all over the world
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and intentionally bring them all into one giant room, that you are creating an environment that is--
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if anyone comes into that environment who is carrying this virus, that would then spread within that community.
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And obviously that's not good. It's just fundamentally.
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And I think it's not good for--there's the general reasons why it's not good.
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And then there's even just the fundamental strategic reasons for a company like Apple.
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Obviously it's not good for the disease to spread. It's not good for the developer--
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an engaged subset of the developer community for your various platforms to be sick.
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And broadly speaking, for the typical demographic of the people who I see at WWDC,
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it is unlikely that COVID-19 is going to be particularly dangerous, necessarily.
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It would certainly be unpleasant if you contract it, but it is more likely something that your experience would be similar to the getting the flu,
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from the general demographic there. But I think more fundamentally, I think if I was Apple and I was trying to plan a conference,
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it's like the biggest difference between the online version of WWDC,
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which Apple has been doing a great job over the last few years of building out,
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and there's a rich, robust experience if you are not physically in San Jose currently.
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All the events are streamed, the videos are available relatively quickly thereafter,
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and there's not on-site access to hardware or things that are unique and special and only available there.
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The same version of Xcode is available if you're remote or if you're on-site.
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And in many ways, the biggest thing that is available and unique about the on-site experience of WWDC
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is access to the engineering staff of Apple,
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access to the people who are building the things that get announced every year.
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And in many ways, that physical access, to me anyway,
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that is the fundamental reason why I would imagine large organizations wouldn't want to have events like this,
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because the last thing Apple would want is the core engineering team of their flagship products
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to all get sick in a way that is potentially, if not profoundly dangerous for them,
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at least knocking them out of commission for a while and causing all kinds of questions around quarantine
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and working from home, and if you're allowed to work from home,
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because you're working on new and secret features at Apple, I have no idea how that even works,
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there's lots of situations there that's really problematic and could potentially derail the launch of the next version of
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watchOS, iOS, MacOS. That would be a really problematic thing, and that's the one aspect of it that you can't reproduce
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necessarily remotely, but that's the main thing where I think of this event.
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It would seem like a really poor strategic move for Apple to encourage people from all over the world to come
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and then interact directly with their engineers right now.
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Oh yeah, and also I think an abundance of caution is warranted.
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Apple is a very high-profile public company. They are very much in the public eye.
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Any slip-ups they make are magnified like crazy by the media and by the public,
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and so they need to be very careful if they take risks that could result in bad press.
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And while COVID-19 is flu-like and most people who get it have just flu symptoms and flu problems,
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and it can usually be treated, some people die from it because some people die from the flu.
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If you are very old or very young or have a compromised immune system or various other possible conditions,
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you could die from it. And can you imagine how horrible it would be if somebody came to WWDC,
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caught this virus, and died from it? Nobody wants that. For lots of reasons, that would be horrible.
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And I think that's why these companies are being especially cautious about this.
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And that's one of the reasons why I think Apple has already canceled it.
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I can't imagine they would be willing to take a risk like that with such a high-profile thing.
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So I think it's interesting. You mentioned that they've been building out streaming and the offline experience,
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because if you look at conferences like this, WWDC is about a 5,000-person conference,
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and it has to serve three audiences, really, if you think about it.
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It has to serve the media, the fans, and the developers.
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And the media can be served in lots of different ways.
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Not all of the media is even there in the room during the big keynote.
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They already have been live streaming the keynotes for years.
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And so most of the world's media, most of the world's fans, and big point here,
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most of the developers are not at the conference anyway.
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Most of them are watching the live streams because they can't all be there,
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because the room only holds 5,000 people,
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and there's a lot more than 5,000 people who are interested in this content and want to see it,
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or who need to see it for their jobs.
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There are way more than 5,000 Apple developers out there.
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So we've already had this problem for years,
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where most people who want or need to get this content can't be there in person.
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So they have to find ways, they've had to find ways to both make the selection process
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a little bit more accessible of getting there in the first place,
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and then for all the people who don't get there,
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of making the content available to them somehow.
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So really, Apple is already very well set up to have an online-only WWDC,
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because they've been moving in that direction for years.
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They already are almost there.
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I do think the keynote, they could have media events,
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bringing a few hundred journalists into the Steve Jobs Theater to have a media event
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is much less risky than bringing 5,000 people into a giant room.
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They might still do that, have the media thing in their own theater.
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They might even just skip that and just have a small selection of just employees there
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to basically clap and live stream it to everybody else around the world,
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maybe they could have private briefings like they've been doing
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for many recent product releases and announcements.
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So the media side, I think they have covered pretty well.
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I think they have lots of options there that they've already been doing
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that might not even involve any in-person gatherings of large groups of people,
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or at least would involve only one kind of small one, like at the theater.
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And so the media side is covered.
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The fan side is also covered if the media side is covered,
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because the fans watch the streams, and most of the fans aren't there.
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So they have that covered too.
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And so that leaves us with the developers.
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How do developers get their needs taken care of?
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And again, because the vast majority of developers are way more than that 5,000 number
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that can actually be there, they already have their needs covered pretty well
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with access to the videos and the slide PDFs and having searchable transcripts
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and sample code downloads and everything.
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That's already been covered pretty well in the past.
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So they just have to keep doing that, and then that leaves this one remaining piece,
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which is labs, as you said, where you get to actually talk to Apple engineers
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who write the stuff you're having problems with.
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You can show them your code.
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They can tell you certain things you're doing wrong or certain things you should be doing.
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Labs are invaluable, but labs have always had this problem of very limited access.
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If you think about this kind of democratically,
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let's conservatively estimate there might be 100,000 people who would want to be there if they could.
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They have 5,000 seats.
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Let's say there's 100,000 Apple developers who would love to be there.
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There's probably actually more than that.
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Software development is a massive business.
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Mobile is a massive part of software development, and the iPhone is a massive part of that.
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Apple always talks about how there's millions of developers.
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Right. That is probably not wrong.
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Let's say there's 100,000, and so we've only been having a 5% availability rate
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for who even has access to the labs that were there in the first place.
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And then let's say also that's not an evenly distributed 5%
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because that's very relevant to things like cost and ability to travel,
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ability to get time off work or to have your job pay for this very expensive travel
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and lodging and this conference ticket.
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It's been kind of this exclusive, expensive, very limited access.
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And it feels kind of wrong that most developers don't have access to this amazing resource
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of being able to talk to people in labs and only this tiny percentage that is fortunate enough
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to get a conference ticket at all and to be able to pay for all of it
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and to be able to get there and everything, which is a very small percentage of developers around the world.
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It seems like this is a good opportunity to actually change the way that works.
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And we have things like the DTS incident system.
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Every paid Apple developer account comes with these developer technical support or DTS incidents.
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I believe it's two per year, right?
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- Something like that.
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I hardly ever use them, but I think you get two per year.
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- Yeah, I've actually never used one.
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I feel very wasteful.
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Every problem I ever have, I'm like,
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"Oh, I don't want to waste one on this."
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And so as a result, I've been an Apple developer for 12 years.
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I've never used one.
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But anyway, they have certain resources,
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but Apple does not have a ton of engineers.
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The resources they have are not as big as most people would assume.
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They don't have as much free time or as much availability to help people, as you would assume.
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And so they've always had these weird systems of sometimes you would have an app store representative
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reach out to you to say, "Hello, I'm going to be your representative here.
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"If you have any questions or you want to talk to us about editorial stuff, email me."
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Sometimes you have somebody like that on the inside who's kind of on your team.
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Most people don't.
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Sometimes you can go to W3C and have access to people in the labs.
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Most people don't.
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Sometimes you might know someone who works there and be able to message them
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and ask them questions that way.
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Most people don't.
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And so there's all these processes where there are special levels of access
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and special ways that you can get help outside of the regular DTS system
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and outside of what's available to everybody.
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And only a very small percentage of developers have access to that.
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So I would like there to be more effort put into making those resources available to everyone.
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I'm lucky that in recent years I've gotten some of those resources.
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But it's actually only been very recent.
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And I spent most of my career, including all of Instapaper and most of Overcast so far,
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not having those resources.
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And so I know what it's like to feel like Apple is just this big brick wall that you have no way into.
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And when you have a problem or when you have a big question or a big bug,
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that's really hard to deal with.
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So I'm really interested to see what changes Apple makes this year
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that might help break down that barrier just a little bit.
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I know they can't break it down all the way because they have limited resources.
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But to break it down just a little bit,
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to try to solve basically the labs at WBC problem without having WBC,
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I think that might be more broadly applicable
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and it could really help out developers if they could find a way to further democratize that.
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Speaking of democratization of technology,
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So I've been thinking a lot about the labs question and how to address that.
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For A, I totally agree that I think the labs are not a great solution
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to the problem of access and support from the developer technical community.
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They serve a tiny fraction of the community at large just by the nature of what they are.
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And then even there, there's some problems and some issues that can be solved with 10 minutes with an Apple engineer.
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When that happens, that feels like magic and it's amazing.
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That's happened to me before. You go, you show someone, they're like, "Oh, you're doing this wrong."
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You flip this around. When it happens, it's amazing.
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But in general, even the lab itself, it can be frustrating or it's a kind of problem
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that they can't help you with or can't necessarily give you direction for.
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The engineers are not educators in the sense that if you're trying to learn to program,
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or if you're trying to learn how to use the Event Kit API,
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the way to learn that is not in the labs with the Event Kit team.
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The way is probably through online tutorials and videos and books and Stack Overflow.
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The community resources for most things are very robust and good.
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And the only place where it gets at all tricky is with new things for which the community
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has not developed the education and support infrastructure around it.
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What I'm reminded of is the launch of WatchOS One.
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I was trying to think if this happened before, but it was one of the few times
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when Apple introduced a substantial new platform and framework outside of WWDC.
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It happened with tvOS also.
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Oh, sure. And then with tvOS, they did the tech talks, right?
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Yep, they traveled around the country doing little mini WWDCs in various cities.
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Yep, it was fun.
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What I remember with watchOS is what was interesting is the Apple developer forums,
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which have been around for a very long time.
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For that particular launch, I would imagine because they had launched this platform
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without the typical WWDC infrastructure around a new platform launch,
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I remember the developer forums were the place to go to talk, and they were very actively moderated
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and staffed by Apple engineers, I can only imagine.
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They're just nameless avatars from my perspective.
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I have no idea if they're people who work in the DTS system, if they're on the evangelism team,
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if they were engineers.
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But I distinctly remember there being lots and lots of people with the little Apple badge
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next to their name in the developer forums being really helpful and answering the same kind of questions
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that would be answered in the labs.
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If there's things that come up, and primarily, honestly, the biggest advantage I like to hear
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when I go to the labs, it's like most of what I'm going there for is the "Is this a bug or am I doing it wrong?"
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Because so often, especially with new things, you kind of end up in these places where you're using a new API
00:19:27
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and it's giving you a response that you don't expect.
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And because it's new and because this is beta 1 of iOS 14, you don't know if this is a bug,
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and you should report it as a feedback, or you're doing something wrong and it's actually working as designed.
00:19:43
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And showing it to an engineer, they're able to be like, "That's a bug," or "This is working as designed."
00:19:48
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And the same thing happened in the developer forums with the original watchOS launch.
00:19:52
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Time and time again, people would report problems and you'd kind of get the,
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"Huh, that looks like a bug. Please file a radar at the time."
00:20:01
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And that was the very useful thing, and that scaled reasonably well.
00:20:06
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And the nice thing about that experience is if I have a problem and I go to the developer forums
00:20:11
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and I talk about my problem, and someone at Apple or someone else in the developer forum
00:20:18
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is able to give me help and point me in the right direction, the next time someone else has that problem,
00:20:23
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it's now searchable. It'll show up in their search results, or they go to the developer forums and search it.
00:20:27
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And now it actually starts to scale, that you can have that one interaction rather than just benefiting one person
00:20:32
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in that 10 minutes with that engineer. That 10 minutes of that engineer time suddenly benefits
00:20:37
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tens or hundreds or thousands of people going forward.
00:20:41
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And so in that sense, the more--I love going to the labs. It's one of my highlights of the year.
00:20:47
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It's just I really enjoy it personally. But when I really take a step back and think about,
00:20:52
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could that experience be replicated online with things like the developer forums
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or an increase in just general documentation and guides or potentially even--
00:21:02
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There's all kinds of things you could imagine. You could imagine Apple specifically reaching out
00:21:07
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to some of the well-established educators within the community and working with them,
00:21:12
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giving them--having them have phone calls with the engineering staff so that they can get
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a huge amount of content and be a resource to other people.
00:21:22
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All of those things scale so much better. And while I would miss not going to the labs,
00:21:27
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the reality is it's been a tremendous privilege for me to be able to go to the labs as often as I have.
00:21:32
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And that's an experience that is not available to most people.
00:21:37
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And any solutions and things that they do to sort of
00:21:42
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mitigate the removal of them is ultimately better for the community overall.
00:21:47
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And I think that's ultimately probably the right way to go.
00:21:52
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Do things that address the issue of wanting to explain the reason behind
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and understand bug or feature of new APIs to the community.
00:22:02
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I think the developer forums is the thing that comes to mind the most for me as a great way to serve
00:22:07
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a place that Apple already has infrastructure around to do that and to be active and engaged in that.
00:22:12
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And people know that if they have a problem with the new API, that's where they go.
00:22:17
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And if they do that, I think we'd be all right. I don't think overall the engagement
00:22:22
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or adoption of the new APIs or new technologies that Apple would have announced in person
00:22:27
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would really be in any way harmed. And the access side of it,
00:22:32
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both just in terms of, you know, it's so like the,
00:22:37
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I love the things when it feels just sort of equal and egalitarian that like if someone,
00:22:42
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it doesn't matter if you can afford five or six thousand dollars to go to San Jose,
00:22:47
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you have exactly the same footing as someone who can. And like, I love that.
00:22:52
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And ultimately, like, that's I think the direction they should go.
00:22:57
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And like, what that means next year when this is calmed down, like, who knows?
00:23:02
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But if this year goes well, then like maybe W3C itself becomes something that is,
00:23:07
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you know, sort of less of a thing or not a five day conference becomes a shorter conference.
00:23:12
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And like the funny thing that even too that comes to mind, like when I think about W3C
00:23:17
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without a physical event, like you wouldn't have the weird thing you have now where
00:23:22
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talks are done on a schedule where if the new technology that you're interested in
00:23:27
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is not like being talked about until Friday, you have like a week where
00:23:32
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you can't really start working on it because you don't really know how it works. Like you would
00:23:37
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imagine Apple would prerecord all of the videos about all of the topics ahead of time
00:23:42
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and then release them on Monday afternoon when they release the new version of Xcode.
00:23:47
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And just like they were all there. Everything's available all at once, which is in many ways, I mean,
00:23:52
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it's kind of a ridiculous mind bending fire hose to start to drink from. But at least you don't have this weird
00:23:57
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thing where you're like, sometimes this happened to me W3C where the new technology I'm interested in
00:24:02
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is like talked about on Friday. And then there's a lab for it, you know, afterwards. So but it's like
00:24:07
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most of the week at W3C this new thing that I'm trying to work out and wrap my head around, like I have no support or infrastructure
00:24:12
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to dive into that. So ultimately like it might be better.
00:24:17
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And like it's bad and like sad from a nostalgic perspective, but
00:24:22
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ultimately I think I would be okay with it and it would be ultimately probably better for the community at large
00:24:27
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to really shift in that direction.
00:24:32
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Yeah, I mean like the tradition angle is certainly strong. I mean, you know, Apple's been holding this for a very long time.
00:24:37
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2009, that's the same year you started going, right?
00:24:42
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Yep, 2009 was my first one.
00:24:44
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Yeah. And so, you know, we've gone to like, you know, 11 of these or whatever, if I'm off by one, sorry, I'm a programmer.
00:24:45
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And then, you know, I think though it's time to scale this. You know,
00:24:49
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when this started, the developer community was way smaller and they actually had trouble
00:24:54
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selling out the tickets to the conference.
00:24:59
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But that time has long since passed. And so anything that can benefit more people, like you said, like, you know, scaling
00:25:02
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these resources is beneficial. So I thought, you know, one way to end this would be
00:25:07
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a repeat segment on this show, how we would spend Tim Cook's money.
00:25:12
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You know, if Apple doesn't host this conference, they're going to save a lot of time and resources.
00:25:16
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Not all of it. It still takes time to do things like prepare the presentations, give them, do the videos, you know,
00:25:21
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put them up, everything, you know, do stuff like that. That still is going to take time and engineering time in particular
00:25:26
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because the engineers usually write those presentations and often give them.
00:25:30
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But there is still way less work for them to do if they don't have this conference.
00:25:35
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And so how would we allocate those resources? And I think the best way to allocate them
00:25:40
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is to fix some, or at least improve, some long-standing shortcomings
00:25:45
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that affect this kind of thing directly. Number one is documentation.
00:25:50
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You know, there's been a lot of bad or missing or incomplete documentation
00:25:55
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from many modern APIs that Apple has released over the last few years. Clearly the documentation team is
00:26:00
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either understaffed, overworked, both, who knows, but they need to put more resources
00:26:05
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into documentation and this would be a good excuse to do that, like, now.
00:26:10
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Another area that could use a lot of improvement that is relevant to this is staffing up DTS.
00:26:14
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I've always heard DTS has a small staff, you know, smaller than you would probably think,
00:26:19
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and that's one of the reasons why Access has to be so limited to it.
00:26:23
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How about staffing that up and making those resources more available to anybody who has
00:26:28
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a developer account instead of just the people at the conference? And finally, I know this is a big ask,
00:26:33
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but maybe improving radar/feedback system, whatever we're calling it these days,
00:26:38
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improving the public interface to that, not putting a new coat of paint on it,
00:26:44
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but improving the amount and quality of communication that external developers get
00:26:50
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when they file feedbacks, radars, whatever we're calling them, because right now
00:26:55
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it's still pretty miserable. Most reports still go totally unanswered. The few answers
00:27:00
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you do get tend to be like, "We need a sysdiagnose," which you usually don't need,
00:27:05
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►
or things like, you know, "Please reproduce with the sample project," like when you often already
00:27:10
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►
included one. Responses that make it look like they're just kind of trying to batch close a bunch and not looking
00:27:15
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►
that closely at yours. And then usually there's stuff that happens behind the scenes
00:27:20
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►
with your bug if it gets viewed by anybody that you aren't privy to,
00:27:25
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that never gets back to you, that's never updated. Usually it isn't even marked as a duplicate, even when it is one.
00:27:30
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The public-facing interface to bug reporter is minimal.
00:27:35
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You get almost no feedback, so it seems like it's a waste of your time to even file bugs in the first place.
00:27:40
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This would be a good opportunity to improve that as well. Put processes in place
00:27:44
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-- by the way, this will also improve software quality -- put processes in place to better
00:27:49
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deal with the bug reports that get filed, and to have more,
00:27:54
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generally more and better feedback, and allow the people who are filtering these more time
00:27:59
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to do their jobs, because again, it really feels like they're rushing when they go through and batch close a whole bunch of bugs.
00:28:04
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Give them more time, give them more resources, make this a priority to make the bug reporting
00:28:09
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interface better for developers who don't work at Apple, because right now it's still pretty miserable.
00:28:14
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Combine that with better documentation and increased DTS resources, and I think
00:28:19
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that would go a long way towards every Apple developer's experience.
00:28:24
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I think the biggest thing that comes to mind for me, the fact that I spend Tim Cook's money or reorganize things at Apple,
00:28:28
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is I honestly think there's a benefit in not having a single
00:28:33
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event that all of development is focused around, that happens once a year,
00:28:38
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there's this big drop of information, and then it kind of goes radio silent again.
00:28:43
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That I think it would be great to increase the ongoing
00:28:48
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communication, support, documentation, going forward. That this is just something
00:28:53
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►
that they do, it isn't necessarily all at once. I'm thinking how
00:28:58
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there's a lot of developer guides or videos or things that you could imagine, that if it just became a regular
00:29:03
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thing that Apple was putting out, or working with
00:29:08
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other external content creators to encourage or to work with, and
00:29:13
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you can imagine a world where if you didn't focus everything around just WWDC,
00:29:18
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that you instead have this focus of this constant creation of content.
00:29:23
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You would have just increased the overall quality of communication and education out there.
00:29:28
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And ultimately, that's what Apple wants. Apple wants us to understand their
00:29:33
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APIs, to take full advantage of them, and to then ultimately make their platforms look good
00:29:38
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by taking full advantage of all the things they're putting the effort in, in creating in the first place.
00:29:43
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The more resources you can put into that, and then expanding that over the course of the year,
00:29:48
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I think would just further Apple's vision in that way.
00:29:53
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to you in two weeks. Bye.
00:29:54
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[BLANK_AUDIO]