0:00:00Welcome to Under the Radar, a show about independent iOS app development. I'm Marco Arment.
0:00:05And I'm David Smith. Under the Radar is never longer than 30 minutes, so let's get started.
0:00:10So to start off with, I just briefly wanted to call out something that was a very significant
0:00:17insofar as we would like big round numbers. But this last week, you published, well, you,
0:00:23John and Casey published, the Accidental Podcast episode number 300, which, A, I wanted to
0:00:29congratulate you on because that is just a lot of talking.
0:00:33Thank you. Yes, it was.
0:00:35But I think honestly, moreover, and I think this is the thing that is like a mini topic
0:00:39here that I wanted to touch on is it is a lot of showing up. It is a tremendous amount
0:00:45of just sticking with something, going through all manner of seasons in terms of your various
0:00:52personal lives, in terms of the podcasting industry, weathering a lot of different things.
0:00:58And I think there is something just noteworthy about sticking with something for that long
0:01:06that is, there's just an important lesson in that. And I think it applies very strongly
0:01:10to the kind of things we often discuss here where the publishing, being an independent
0:01:17producer of anything, whether that is a podcast or an application or a blog or whatever that
0:01:23might be, that is something that is inevitably going to go through many seasons. And having
0:01:29kind of known you for essentially the whole run of ATP, it's knowing that that show goes
0:01:37through seasons. It goes through periods where listenership is up and everything's great
0:01:42and sometimes things slow down or it comes and goes. And just showing up every week to
0:01:48do that is kind of just an impressive accomplishment and I think a good reminder. I mean, it's
0:01:53kind of fun. I just love the numeracy of you just hit 300 on that and this will be episode
0:02:00150 for us. And I think there is just, it's a good reminder that so much of what we do
0:02:07and I think so much of what ultimately makes something successful is just continuing to
0:02:12show up. That once you've gotten through the initial period where you're kind of seeing
0:02:17if something has legs, it's just continuing to push at it and work at it. Not take it
0:02:23for granted, find ways to make it new and fresh. And this is something that I think
0:02:28I see in the evolution of the Accidental Tech podcast. It's interesting because I know I've
0:02:34been listening from the beginning because I was one of the handful of neutral listeners
0:02:39before it turned into the Accidental Tech podcast and it has changed. The format has
0:02:46changed. You've adapted. You do things like Ask ATP Now, which I think is a great way
0:02:50to inject some kind of freshness and diversity into the topics and even just the roles within
0:02:56the show is like it changes and adapts, which I think is just an important lesson to be
0:03:02learned. And I have no idea if this show will ever get to 300, but I'm glad to be able
0:03:09to get to 150.
0:03:10Yeah, thanks. And congratulations to us as well for hitting 150. We might as well congratulate
0:03:16ourselves because it's a podcast. We're the only ones here. And so, yeah, thank you
0:03:20very much. I think there are lessons to be learned here as well, like lessons to teach
0:03:25others. You know, doing anything every single week for six years is not easy. Doing everything
0:03:34every single week for six months is not easy. There are ways to set it up so that it's
0:03:40easier on you. There are ways to make it more sustainable or more challenging. And, you
0:03:45know, when it comes to what we usually talk about, like indie development, our time is
0:03:50very limited. Our resources are usually more limited than a big company would be. But mostly
0:03:56our time is what it is. And we also need to do things like plan for or allow for breaks,
0:04:06things like vacations and having some slack in the schedule or some slack in our obligations
0:04:12so that if family obligations come up or some unexpected health problem comes up or something
0:04:17like that, that we have slack in the schedule for that. And there are certain obligations
0:04:22you sign yourself up for can be easier or harder to work into an indie life. We're
0:04:29lucky in that podcasting the way we do, you know, where it's not scripted. You know,
0:04:34we work basically off of an outline of things we want to talk about. But for the most part,
0:04:38it's not scripted. And this applies to both ATP and Under the Radar. You know, we're
0:04:44basically like, you know, bullet points are what we prepare and that's about it. And
0:04:48the rest is kind of off the cuff or just recalling stories or tips from our own experience or
0:04:53just BSing about something that we think, you know, that we have opinions on. But that
0:04:59kind of like it's fairly low on the prep. And then you're talking for the time of
0:05:05the show and then there's some editing time afterwards and that's about it. And it's
0:05:09fairly easy to fit a, you know, one to three hour commitment per week. Or, you know, even
0:05:16if you do like a lot of editing like I do on ATP, you know, it's maybe a six hour
0:05:21commitment every week. But that's also a big part of my job. But like it's that,
0:05:25like what you get out of it for such a small commitment of time is a pretty good ratio.
0:05:31It's a pretty good like, you know, return on investment time wise. There's a lot of
0:05:35things you can sign up for to do every week that aren't so much a good return on investment
0:05:38or that need a lot more of your time. And I think it's important for indies to really
0:05:44judge harshly when it comes to what is a good use of your time for things that are recurring.
0:05:52You know, it's one thing, like if you want to go off on an experiment that's like
0:05:56a one off thing or an exploratory thing where you're like, okay, let me try, you know,
0:06:01building some crazy algorithm. Like what I'm doing with Voice Boost 2 now. Like I have
0:06:06been on this crazy audio coding odyssey for the last probably two months or so or at least
0:06:12one month working on Voice Boost 2 and getting all sorts of audio processing stuff down and
0:06:19really experimenting with it and trying to do really sophisticated stuff if I can. And
0:06:25all of that is a huge use of time. If this was like what I was doing every week, I would
0:06:30say it's probably not a good use of my time. But it's okay to invest that kind of
0:06:33like as a one off thing, as an exploratory thing or like a large investment in what might
0:06:38be a major feature. Whereas if I'm looking at something that's going to recur every
0:06:43week for the indefinite future, something like starting a podcast, starting a video
0:06:48series, committing to like a writing gig once a week or something like that, right, where
0:06:53you're really committed every week. That I would look at much more harshly to see
0:06:59like is this really worth this time every week? Like what is this going to cost me time
0:07:04wise? Possibly what am I going to have to stop doing to make time for this? That I think
0:07:10you have to look at very harshly. With ATP, it works out well. You know, the ratios work.
0:07:18Podcasts in general are fairly good returns on investment for how much effort and time
0:07:24they take to produce versus how much value you get out of them. Things that are lower
0:07:28on that list are things like giving conference talks. You know, like that's way more work
0:07:32for, I think, way less benefit most of the time. And I think it's important as an indie
0:07:38to find that balance between those extremes and to really think hard about how you're
0:07:43going to allocate your time for recurring indefinite commitments.
0:07:48Yeah, and I think too, there is something to be said for just being circumspect when
0:07:55you start something about what it's going to cost you. Like one of the things we always,
0:08:01like we try and say in my household is whenever you say, saying yes to something is always
0:08:05saying no to something else. And I think often it's easy to want to say yes to something
0:08:12because it is in and of itself appealing. But it is often hard to actually conceptualize
0:08:22what you're saying no to by saying yes to that thing. And I think in sort of intrinsic
0:08:27thinking what you're saying is the sense that your time is precious, make sure that you're
0:08:30spending it appropriately. And like, if you find something where you can find that great
0:08:35combination of, you know, sort of good value for whatever that means to you, whether that's
0:08:40financial or in terms of reputation, or in terms of other things, that like that there's
0:08:45a balance between the effort that it takes. And I think especially in the ongoing basis
0:08:49side, it's something that you have to be very mindful of. And I mean, reminded and slightly
0:08:54of early before we I did under the radar, I did a show called Developing Perspective,
0:08:59which was just me for 15 minutes. And what I found with that show, when I started it,
0:09:05I tried to, I did it as a weekly thing, actually, the first month I did it as a daily thing,
0:09:09but that was for a different reason. But what I read, what I very quickly found was that
0:09:15and like the purpose of the show was not financial, there's no ads on it ever, it was entirely,
0:09:19I guess, reputation oriented, that my goal was to try and raise my profile in the developer
0:09:26community by having a podcast, having a thing that I was talking about. And what I found
0:09:31though is, is it worked well, when I changed it to the two, I did it whenever it made sense
0:09:37for me to do it. And it was also why it had a 15 minute time limit, is that it was very
0:09:43easy for me to just sit down, record for 15 minutes, do a few rough edits, and then post
0:09:48it. And the whole process maybe was 20 or 30 minutes, and I would do it whenever it
0:09:53made sense. And that was a good way for me to balance that. So rather than committing
0:09:57to some kind of hard, harsh schedule that I feel bad about, or I'm setting an expectation
0:10:02for an audience or for other people to expect of me, it was just like, it comes when, you
0:10:08know, whenever I have something to say, I will say it. And I found that that worked
0:10:11well for finding that balance. But it's like being circumspect about, is this really, is
0:10:16it a good use of your time? And if it is, then you can stick with something. And if
0:10:20you stay at it, things can last a very long time. It's kind of amazing that you've
0:10:25been doing ATP for six years. Essentially, that is entire one of my children's life
0:10:32is encapsulated in that. And that is remarkable in a really kind of cool way.
0:10:39- Yeah, I mean, it is crazy to me, thinking about when I started the show, my son was
0:10:46like one or zero. And Casey didn't even have children yet. There's entire lives that
0:10:53have been started within this show. Although John was still writing Pearl. But Pearl is
0:11:02forever. But like, you know, and I think there is some value to this, of the idea of whether
0:11:08something is a weekly commitment, or a certain recurring commitment, or whether it's more
0:11:14flexible. Like, you know, the way we do podcasts, this isn't how everybody has to do it, but
0:11:20the way that we do ATP and the way we do this show is we do a show every single week. Or
0:11:26rather we do a show for every single week. We don't necessarily record it during that
0:11:30week. Like if we're going on vacation, we can double up the week before and then just
0:11:33release the second one during that week or something. But for the most part, we're
0:11:37doing a show almost every week. And same thing with ATP. And I think there is a lot of value
0:11:43to that for sure. Especially in things like podcasts where you do want to like slowly
0:11:48build an audience over time. And podcast audiences tend to reward regularity, people like that.
0:11:56But if you do something the way you did developing perspective, where, you know, as you were
0:12:01saying, like you basically did it whenever you could or whenever you felt like doing
0:12:04it. Like there's room for that too. Like because the weekly commitment thing is such
0:12:09a like firm, hard deadline. It's unforgiving. Like no matter what's going on in your life,
0:12:15you have to do that show on this day. Like it's a fixed block. And that again, time
0:12:20wise that can be very expensive. But when you move something to however you feel like
0:12:27it, the bar for like how much reward do I need to get out of this gets much lower. Like
0:12:34you know, so you mentioned with developing perspective, like you didn't ever run ads
0:12:37on that show. Like it was not a financial thing. It was for other reasons. For you know,
0:12:40audience building, reputation building, and you know, personal development, professional
0:12:44development. There's, you should be doing things like that too when possible or when
0:12:50you have like you know, the inspiration to do it. But it's important to then give that
0:12:55like the time budget that it is worth rather than saying like oh I'm going to do this
0:13:00every week. I'm going to do this, you know like I'm going to guarantee this thing.
0:13:03Because then that isn't sustainable. Like if you commit to a weekly thing that takes
0:13:09a good amount of time or any amount of time but then also has no direct business reward
0:13:15for you or no direct upside for you or at least maybe has only a very slowly building
0:13:20one. That's going to be like in within a month or two you're going to stop doing that
0:13:25thing. Like you're going to burn out. You're going to you're going to flake out or just
0:13:28fail or realize it's not worth it and just stop. Whereas if you if you align like the
0:13:36time budget and importance budget with the upside to it, it might actually make it more
0:13:42sustainable over time. Like you did developing perspective for what like two or three years
0:13:47at least.
0:13:48- It was a long time yeah. It was at least three I think it was three or four years.
0:13:51- Yeah like you had it for a while and there were some times where you go a couple weeks
0:13:56without an episode but then the show would come back and you keep going. And if you were
0:14:01committed to doing it every single week, I bet at some point during that run you would
0:14:06say I can't do this anymore and you would have just stopped.
0:14:10- Yeah. I think that's that is very accurate. Yeah it looks like I did I think 226 episodes.
0:14:17- Of the show from 2015 starting in 2011.
0:14:22- Yeah exactly and so like that's why I like it's super important to to to align what you're
0:14:28giving something for time wise and what you're allowing it to be obligation wise. Align that
0:14:34with the reward you're getting from it because then when challenges come up on your time
0:14:39or when other needs come up and you have to then stop doing it, it's not the end of the
0:14:43world. You're not going to like fall out of it. You're not gonna like you know fall off
0:14:45the wagon or get on the wagon. I never get that metaphor right. Whatever it is about
0:14:49the wagons and like it's not gonna be like oh well it's out the window now. Might as
0:14:55well stop doing it. See also you know exercise and activity rings. But anyway and you know
0:15:02like I'm doing a similar thing with my YouTube videos now where I'm experimenting with YouTube
0:15:07videos very rarely. It's a large time investment to get a video out for me. I'm reducing that
0:15:15over time with you know both you know getting a little bit better at things, learning what
0:15:18not to do, getting a little bit better equipment or having like a more permanent setup. Like
0:15:22that's that those things all make all lower that that bar and make it easier to put out
0:15:27a video and make it take less time. But it still takes way more time to make a video
0:15:31than it does to make a podcast and anything else I do. And the videos at the moment have
0:15:36no direct monetization. So the upside is not there really. And but the reason I want to
0:15:42do those videos is I want to build up something over on YouTube. I want to expand my audience
0:15:49and I want to build an audience there as well. And that has immense value but has a very
0:15:54slow ramp over time. And so I have to like I have to really be careful with how I budget
0:16:01my time for that because at the moment pouring a bunch of time and effort into my YouTube
0:16:07videos is not a good use of my time. I have to you know I have to do my podcast every
0:16:11week because that's a big part of my business and my income and my audience. And then I
0:16:14also have overcast and I can't ignore overcast. I have to keep working on that as well. And
0:16:19so I have to keep the videos kind of as a side project both time and commitment wise
0:16:26because right now they are one. But maybe over time that changes but that's probably
0:16:30going to be a while out.
0:16:31Yeah. And I think too there's an element I find in so many things of it's separating
0:16:36something from something that is like your vocation that is something that you are doing
0:16:40for income to sustain yourself and to support yourself. And the pressure and expectations
0:16:45on that are very specific versus something that you're doing for enrichment. And like
0:16:51for you like I've dabbled in making YouTube videos myself and it's like I am glad of
0:16:55the experience because I developed a skill that has come in handy other times or has
0:17:02helped me to think about problems in a different way or you know like I went all of a sudden
0:17:07they allowed us to do app previews like being able to know how to make a video was useful.
0:17:12Oh yeah.
0:17:13But it's very it's like
0:17:14App previews. I should probably do one of those.
0:17:17Eventually I mean people like them I hear. But anyway it's like viewing something as
0:17:23enrichment and like separating it as you know like is this my vocation or is this enrichment
0:17:28and being like honest with yourself about that. That are you really starting this thing
0:17:33with the expectation that this is going to be a substantial and important part of your
0:17:37business or is this something you're doing to grow to have fun to experiment like those
0:17:43types of things and it's enrichment in which case have a different set of expectations.
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0:19:36this show and relay FM. So to round out this episode I thought it would just be a good
0:19:42time to touch briefly kind of I guess to an update on device and iOS and watchOS adoption.
0:19:52It's been long enough now since watchOS 5, iOS 12, the new iPhones and new iPads even
0:19:57everything is sort of like out in the world now and I'm able to kind of see in my own
0:20:01stats what's going on there and I think it's interesting to discuss and then also probably
0:20:05just to you know just set a bit of expectations for what might have been coming into this
0:20:10Christmas season. So broadly I think it's good for them this is you know these are the
0:20:17stats that I see in my own apps. Your apps will be different, every app is you know is
0:20:22very unique depending on its user, is it a general purpose tool, is it a specialized
0:20:27tool for developers, like you're going to see wildly different stats. But I think broadly
0:20:31you know there's lessons to be learned either way. So broadly I see iOS 12 adoption has
0:20:39been just as good as iOS 11 is for the most part. It's for me it's sitting right around
0:20:4580% for you know for my overall number which is you know is very good for two months later
0:20:53I would say. It's a little bit lower in what couple of my other apps but you know 70 to
0:20:5780% seems to be very consistent you know in terms of the overall adoption. WatchOS adoption
0:21:05has been equally pretty good. It's a bit more complicated with watchOS adoption because
0:21:09there's sort of kind of two numbers that are interesting. There's the people who've adopted
0:21:14watchOS 5 who have a you know series one watch and newer and then there's the overall number
0:21:22that kind of takes into account the fact that series zero users are never going to update.
0:21:28So my overall number for like people who can do watchOS 5 is about 85% which is you know
0:21:35very good. That's really good. It's like if I adjusted for people who have series one
0:21:40watch series zero watches and so will never update that goes about 74% for me. So which
0:21:45is also pretty good. Yeah. Obviously like watch series zero adoption is getting lower
0:21:51and lower every day which is obviously what is driving that. But that you know that whatever
0:21:56the overall percentage of the people who are still using series zero watches are never
0:22:01going to update. So you know for me right now that's about 14% so like that you know
0:22:0614% of people are never going to update. So that's just kind of going to be stuck there
0:22:11until that number goes down. I would imagine too like this is probably a really good time
0:22:17for watch upgrades for people because you have Black Friday in a couple days that the
0:22:22watches are already on sale. They're going to be more on sale over the over the coming
0:22:26weekend and so you have a lot of people buying them for themselves and then you're probably
0:22:29also going to have a lot of people buying watches as gifts during the holidays for people
0:22:32because it's a pretty good like adult gift object. Like it's you know it's not insanely
0:22:38expensive for adults. It's not tied to a cellular contract or a two year upgrade cycle like
0:22:44like phones or anything like that and way more affordable than like an iPad and so they
0:22:50probably make pretty frequent gifts. Do you see like a big uptick in the holidays in the
0:22:55past for like you know watch upgrades or adoption? Yes. There is a clear jump on Christmas Day.
0:23:03Like it is it is a almost like I don't see as much of one in the run up to Christmas.
0:23:09Like I mean there's maybe a slight like in change in inflection of like the slope of
0:23:13the adoption curve. But Christmas Day like for last year the series three watch like
0:23:22I mean and I do all my kind of this this kind of analysis as proportionate to the others
0:23:27but like the series three watch went from about 20% the day before Christmas like 20%
0:23:33of my users were using series three watches to the box on Boxing Day it was 28%. Oh my
0:23:39God. Yeah that's it's a very steep just jump in terms of adoption and I think like I would
0:23:46expect the same thing to happen with the series series four watches this year. I mean honestly
0:23:53probably more more interesting in a lot of ways is how impressive the series four adoption
0:23:58has been. The series four watch at this point is almost the so it's 18% overall of my of
0:24:08my users users are using a series four watch which is basically in line with the series
0:24:14two like the series three is the only one that's better but you know in a couple of
0:24:18months it's almost the second most widely used device. That's really impressive for
0:24:24such a short time. Yeah like it seems like the series four watch is doing really well
0:24:28which in some ways is in contrast to like on the iPhone side the the 10s, 10s max and
0:24:3610r I've seen overall like a bit slower adoption like they're doing well like it's not like
0:24:43they're like you know I'm having citizen you know piddling along at 0.1% of users or anything
0:24:47like that like they're doing reasonably. You hear that 9 to 5 Mac this is not a news story
0:24:53please don't make it one. No but they're not as crushing like the iPhone 10 when it came
0:24:59out was like zooming up like it did its initial ramp I think was super steep whereas you know
0:25:05the iPhone like the 10s, 10s max and 10r seem to have just kind of the normal kind of just
0:25:11like slow slow build over time. Out of curiosity if you if you sum them does that because like
0:25:16now like we have more options than we had like last year if you wanted to get the flagship
0:25:20you got the 10 like now there's kind of three or two and a half flagships like if you if
0:25:26you if you look at their sum does it look any better? Sort of I'm just kind of eyeballing
0:25:32it on the ground on the chart I'm looking at and I think the thing of course last year
0:25:37was the the iPhone 8 was actually really popular. Oh really? And it launched before the iPhone
0:25:4410 and so like the iPhone 8 is in my usership is the fourth most popular phone and is basically
0:25:53the same as the iPhone 10 they're both around 9% of my users and so like those like those
0:26:00kind of I think in a weird way like in the tech circle people maybe with would think
0:26:04of the iPhone 10 as a like as a lesser phone or like it you know like it's not it's not
0:26:11the one that we would we talked much about last year perhaps. The 8. But in practice
0:26:16like it did very well there's a ton of those out in the world and you know is I would expect
0:26:22it'll be around you know it for a long time yet too. Interesting. And I think honestly
0:26:29too on the interesting note on the iPhone 8 is that it's it's a I haven't seen a big
0:26:37replacement rate for that yet. So like when the 10 came out the like or so when the 10s
0:26:44came out the usership of the 10 dropped and has been going down slowly like in terms of
0:26:50it there's kind of I mean this is always kind of just like you kind of look at it and kind
0:26:54of guess but it kind of looks that like the people who are getting the 10s a lot of them
0:26:59had 10s and there's that kind of that sense of the early adopter always going to have
0:27:05the latest phone kind of people whereas the 8 is just kind of slowly and sort of slow
0:27:10and steady kind of on its on its path that isn't as affected by the launch of new phones
0:27:16which is kind of consistent I think with it's it's the long update cycle it's the typical
0:27:21user it's that type of a person that is likely is likely updating with it so you know these
0:27:29are just kind of like interesting things that I'm seeing that I want that I think are kind
0:27:33of worthwhile sharing just because not everyone has access to kind of you know a user base
0:27:39wide enough that you can draw actual sort of inferences from it. It's interesting too
0:27:46like like when I was running Instapaper Christmas was always really big for me for the first
0:27:52couple of years because Instapaper business like this the app sales were really really
0:27:57strong whenever people were likely to buy new iPads and and so iPad launch day and Christmas
0:28:04day were my two biggest launch days of the year for the first few years but what was
0:28:09interesting is that it actually tailed off that like it like in the later years of when
0:28:14I when I owned it it was much less of an effect because it was a paid up for an app and so
0:28:20you can only buy one per Apple ID and there was like it was increasingly like as the years
0:28:25went on more and more of the iPads that would be unwrapped on Christmas day or whatever
0:28:30or on launch day were upgrades as opposed to people who were getting their very first
0:28:34iPad so the upgrades were not getting me any additional sales. I wonder like I mean that's
0:28:38going to be true of pretty much every Apple product at this point right? Yeah and I think
0:28:44the only one that this seems to kind of be slightly yeah it's like the watch I think
0:28:49still has a lot of new adoption going on. Yeah. Just because I think so like my overall
0:28:55like watch adoption rate is still only like 14% so like and obviously this is for a health
0:29:00and fitness oriented app this is you know pedometer plus plus so maybe that's probably
0:29:04skewed slightly high maybe. That's about what I have although I also skew like power user
0:29:09so who knows. Sure but like you know there is still the you know 85% of people who don't
0:29:15have a watch period so like there's a tremendous opening there whereas you know the number
0:29:20of people who are buying iPhones for the first time is probably much lower. Yeah. Alright
0:29:25well thanks for listening everybody and we'll talk to you next week. Alright. Happy Thanksgiving.
0:29:30Happy Thanksgiving.
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