45: Ads ★★☆☆☆
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Welcome to Under the Radar, a show about independent iOS app development.
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I'm Mark Orment.
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And I'm David Smith.
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Under the Radar is never longer than 30 minutes, so let's get started.
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So today we wanted to talk again about the App Store and about how the App Store is changing
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over time and especially around this time when iOS 10 is coming out and things are changing,
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and especially this year where it seems like for the first time we're having all of this
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change and tumult in the App Store where we're getting subscription model changing, there's
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search ads coming, they're purging old apps from the App Store, they're changing app review,
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timing, all kinds of things are changing in the App Store.
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And all that change recently made me take a look back and do what I love doing most,
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which is making a chart.
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Any time I kind of feel nostalgic or curious, I'll try and make a chart out of that.
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And so what I did, and this is a lot of what we're going to start talking about, is an
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article I wrote called "Evolving App Store Business Models," which I'll have a link to
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in the show notes.
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A lot of these things I feel are so easy to get stuck on the way you feel now, and these
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slow gradual changes are hard to really pin down for what's actually been happening in
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the App Store.
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Because it's been quite a while since I submitted my first app.
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I think my first app I submitted almost eight years ago, and a lot's changed since then.
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And the interesting thing that I found is when I went back to my App Store sales data,
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as far back as I had kept it, and honestly I really wish I had my data all the way back
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to eight years ago, but I just don't.
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Like I consolidated into a new reporting system only three or four years ago, and so I only
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have data back then.
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But nevertheless...
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You should release that.
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Oh, it's awful.
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It is one of those classic projects, which I'm sure any developer can appreciate, where
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it is designed to work for nobody but me.
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I do weird things.
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It makes no sense to anybody but me, but for me it's perfect.
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And I have to run six scripts to get all the data in in the way I like it, but it works
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So I would not recommend...
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If you're looking for a sales and reporting system, I'm sure there are many great hosted
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providers to do what you want to do.
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Don't roll your own.
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I can tell you.
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It's terrible.
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But if you have this data, you can go back and look at it.
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The most striking chart, and I think the thing that is most strongly drawn attention to this
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article was I did a chart of the percent of my revenue from three different sources, from
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an app purchase, from paid sales, and from advertising.
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And the truly remarkable thing from that graph is the way that advertising has just been
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steadily clawing away at paid sales over the last four years in such a linear and clear
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way that when I first saw it, I was like, "Wow, my data's broken.
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There's no way there's this linear of a progression.
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I'm doing something wrong in my analysis."
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But turns out, check the data, this is what it is.
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I went from a period in the beginning of 2012 where only about 10% of my revenue came from
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advertising, and now it's getting close to about 80% of my revenue comes from advertising.
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And interestingly, over that period, in-app purchase in revenue has remained almost constant.
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It's certainly gone up and down, but roughly it's been hovering around 15% to 20% of my
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And that's kind of fascinating to me because it shows how, in sort of stark numbers, how
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the App Store has been changing in a way that I kind of feel that this has been changing.
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It's kind of the old thing we've talked about for so long about the race to the bottom,
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about lack of trials or the death of a paid model or the devaluing of software.
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All these things that you could kind of—the things that we talk about as software developers,
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I always find it reassuring rather than just kind of wishy-washy talking about things,
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to actually look at the numbers and say, "Is that actually true?"
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And yeah, as somebody who has been doing this full-time, who's been doing it with a lot
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of apps, who's been doing it—probably more importantly, who's tried about every
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business model you can think of, the ones that have worked over time has changed.
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And the business model now that seems most reliable for me is advertising.
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And paid sales are now a vanishingly small percentage of my app.
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And even more crazy is when I look at the chart, you can see part of what makes paid
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sales so terrible because there's these massive spikes where I launch a new app, big
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spike in paid sales, and then it just falls off again.
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And that, more than anything else, is the thing that I really don't like about paid
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sales and how just volatile that is when you're trying to make a living from it.
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Yeah, I mean, we've all—anybody who's ever had a paid app in the store has seen
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this exact same pattern before.
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If you're lucky, you have the launch where you have a decent spike.
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And then no matter what, no matter how lucky you were at launch, it just drops off after
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a few days probably at most and starts to level off into basically a slowly declining
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plateau after that of sadness and uncertainty.
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And what I found is that every time—if I have a paid app, suppose I do a 2.0 or a 3.0,
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like a major update, even if they get a lot of press, I might get spikes on that day,
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but it's never as high as the initial launch spike.
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And every spike you have subsequent to an app's launch is usually smaller than the
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one before it, to the point where now even major holidays don't really impact me at
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It used to be like Christmas used to be a major sales day, and now paid apps don't
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even do that well on Christmas.
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It's kind of sad, really, but I guess it does—as you're saying here, it really
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does reflect the reality of what people are doing.
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Regardless of how we think things should be or how we wish things would be, this shows
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what people are actually doing, how people are choosing to spend money or not spend money
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in the App Store, I think is very clear here.
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Yeah, and I think it speaks to also how—I look at this graph and I think to myself how
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glad I am that I've been willing to experiment a lot, because the thing that I think is most
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dangerous in the App Store is not being flexible and not trying new things and not moving around,
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because there have definitely been times as I've gone through this where I'm like,
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"Oh, do I really want to do that?
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Do I not want to do that?"
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And it's interesting to see so clearly that if I hadn't—if I'd been stuck on one
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model, if I'd said, "No, this is how I'm going to sell my software," it just wouldn't
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have worked.
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If my revenue was just my paid sales number, for example, if that's what I'd stuck to
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and committed to, I would be consulted at this point, almost certainly, or I'd be
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working a nine-to-five job somewhere.
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I would not be able to live on that diminishingly small part of the pie now.
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And so by being a little bit flexible on that, it's reassuring that that was the right
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choice, because at the end, what I wanted was to be an independent, to be able to make
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that software I want to make and then make a living from it.
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To do that, it's like, this is what that takes, and this is what that looks like now,
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Yeah, I mean, if you look at your graph, the one that's not 100 percent graph, but the
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one that's just a pure, spiky graph, it's interesting to note that you basically are
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making a pretty similar salary steadily since about 2013.
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And if you subtract the advertising from that, you see what I think most developers have
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seen since 2013, which is a slowly declining curve and a lot of sadness as things decline
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and seemingly can't get back up.
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So really, which we're going to talk a little more about, it seems like advertising has
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kind of, maybe not saved you, but certainly has been a massive part of your success over
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the last few years, and it seems like that is the missing part that a lot of us indies
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have not had over the last few years, to keep it steady.
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Instead, we only have those paid sale and maybe, if we're lucky, in-app purchase sales
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like what you have, but they have about the same shape that your graph has, which is everything
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getting harder and harder and harder and money just getting lower and lower over time.
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And the willingness to experiment is literally what's making your business now, because
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you can experiment with different apps, but if everyone experiments with different apps,
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but only one or two payment models, you're missing out on part of the experimentation.
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In your case, experimenting with ads and various in-app purchase schemes has really helped
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you quite a bit over anybody who just tried to sell an app for a few bucks and hope that
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it works, because that can work, but it's certainly a lot harder to make that work,
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and I think over time it's working less.
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>> Steve- Yeah, and I think it speaks to also something that I've found that's an unintended
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benefit of advertising for me is the reliability of the income that it gives.
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And that's certainly not to say that it's not the same day to day, and advertising is
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notorious for especially the first day of a new financial quarter and especially the
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first day of a new year falling off cliffs, because everyone's ad budgets, they spend
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them up and then you get to the end of the month, the end of a quarter, and they're like,
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"Oh no, we got all this money, let's just spend it," and your rates go up nicely, and
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then the first you hit, January, February, March, and then all of a sudden it just falls
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So it's not like it's completely reliable, and once you've been through one of those
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crazy cliffs once or twice, you kind of know what you're looking at.
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But what I find fascinating is on a day to day basis, my sales income from paid things,
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where I'm relying on somebody to open their wallet and hand me $2, the variability I found
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between that has always been way higher than from advertising base.
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And I think it's largely because advertising is functionally a measure, it's like this
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rough measure of the engagement of users in my application.
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How many times they're opening it, how long they're opening it, it's that overall usage
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number, and that number is very stable to a certain point.
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You hope your app brings on more users than it loses as you go, so that you need those
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downloads at the beginning, and then you have some kind of retention over time, that some
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people will stop using your app, and then they're replaced hopefully by new people.
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And if that number is gradually working its way up, in order for your income to go down,
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obviously the rates can drop, which sometimes happens, but usually they're fairly stable,
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and so as a result, your income just becomes fairly flat, because it's only increasing
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or decreasing by the very slow adjustments from the amount of new users you get and the
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number of users that you're losing.
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And so if you have a big spike in new users, it's like, "Yay!"
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That won't actually make a big difference to your revenue that day, though.
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That spike gets averaged out over the next few months as your daily active sessions,
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or whatever the right measure would be, slowly works its way up.
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And say you make a change and people don't like it and they leave the app, that'll likely
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be offset in the same thing.
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That is a gradual decline, and that, as an independent, as somebody who pays my mortgage
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with my app revenue, that is so reassuring, this feeling that I don't have to check
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my sales report every day and worry that, "Has this been a good weekend?
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For a while I had apps that would do really well on Sundays, and sometimes I'd have
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a Sunday where my sales just wouldn't be what they were."
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And it's like, "Whoa!
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There goes 15% of my weekly revenue because it was a holiday or because there was an issue
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on the App Store and payments weren't processing for a few hours, which is something that's
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happened before."
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And you look at those and you're like, "Whoa!
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This is really scary!"
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But at least with advertising and that kind of a model, and you'd say in some ways subscriptions
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have a similar kind of feel to them, but it's lovely to have the sense of these slow increases
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and slow decreases over time rather than these huge spikes that are up and down, which are
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just so stressful.
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All right, so we've been talking about ads and your transition to a diversified income
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stream that includes ads in your apps.
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And this got me thinking a while back, you know, maybe I should try ads in Overcast.
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Because the problem I was facing, so I wrote this big blog post kind of explaining all
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this in more detail, but Overcast has had three business models now.
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The first year roughly, it was, I always wanted it to be free up front because I have a lot
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of reasons why I want this, why basically market share is more important to me than
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total revenue for this app.
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I really want maximum market share and I'll try to get enough revenue somehow once I have
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So I have the very first year, I have free up front and you get some of the features,
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but you don't really get the best features.
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Things like smart speed and voice boost and like full playlists and everything.
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It was pretty limited and it was really annoying with like how much in the app it was limited.
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It basically, it was not a very good app in its limited state.
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And yet, the vast majority of my users were using it in that state because most people
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didn't buy the one time $5 an app purchase to unlock the cool stuff.
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So trying to combat that problem, about a year ago I switched to every feature was free
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and you just pay me what you want basically.
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I did a monthly subscription, a dollar a month and you could buy it ahead as long as you
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It was a lot of renewing.
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It was the old kind of subscription where it doesn't auto renew.
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So you could basically just buy it for five years if you wanted to give me a bunch of
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money or just buy it for three months if you wanted to try it out.
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But you didn't really get anything for that.
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And I was kind of banking on people's goodwill and it did work, just not enough.
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It did work enough to get me a little over like I think just about 1.5% or so or 2% roughly
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of users to actually pay and subscribe.
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But that was not really enough to really bring in meaningful revenue over time.
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So instead, I switched about six months ago.
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I added a couple of features that had been very highly requested.
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The main one of which was dark mode, a whole dark theme of the app.
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I added that to the app about six months ago and I added it only for people who were paying
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the voluntary patronage.
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And that was weird for a number of reasons.
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I mean, first of all, now it's still called patronage, but now you get perks.
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And so that's a little bit odd.
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A lot of people objected to the terminology there and I understand why.
00:17:30
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And then a lot of people were mad because people who had bought the original $5 unlock
00:17:35
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everything purchase the year earlier were very mad that here was a new feature that
00:17:39
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they did not get.
00:17:40
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They were extremely mad and I heard from them constantly, even literally for the last six
00:17:45
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I stopped, I kept hearing from them.
00:17:47
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And so I don't want to make my early customers so mad.
00:17:50
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And then the final problem was even that, while it did provide a nice bump to the number
00:17:55
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of people who were paying, it didn't provide enough of a bump to make it really a sustainable
00:18:00
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good income.
00:18:02
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So I could sustain the service on that just barely, but I really need more to both do
00:18:08
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what I want to do with it and to justify pouring a lot of my time into it rather than having
00:18:12
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to start exploring new projects.
00:18:15
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So I decided ads were worth a try because as you said, ads make a lot of sense now.
00:18:22
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You know, there's a reason why so much that we consume and use in today's technology
00:18:28
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world is ad funded.
00:18:31
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There's a big reason for that.
00:18:33
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And that is that you basically, anybody can use everything they want for free.
00:18:38
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You just have to tolerate these ads.
00:18:40
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And most people don't mind ads.
00:18:42
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I don't know anybody who loves ads, but most people don't mind.
00:18:46
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Most people will take that trade off.
00:18:49
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If the trade off is, I would rather not pay, but I'll take ads.
00:18:54
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Or you can pay and then you won't see ads.
00:18:57
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Most people will choose the ad option there because they don't want to pay.
00:19:01
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And that's fine.
00:19:02
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It seemed to make a lot of sense.
00:19:04
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The main risk to this was of course that here I had this app that is very well regarded by
00:19:10
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a lot of people.
00:19:12
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It's used by a lot of people, many of whom are very strongly opinionated.
00:19:16
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And it looks, you know, it had a good design.
00:19:18
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It has a good design.
00:19:19
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It looks nice.
00:19:20
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And a lot of people were going to see me try ads.
00:19:24
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And I've had various opinions of ads over the years.
00:19:27
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And again, I don't love them either, but I consider them kind of the acceptable trade
00:19:31
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off for what we're doing here.
00:19:34
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So I was very, very scared to release this.
00:19:37
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This was the most nervous I've ever been about releasing anything since I've done
00:19:42
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And I released it and overall the reaction was better than I expected.
00:19:49
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It's not great.
00:19:50
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I wouldn't say it's a great reaction.
00:19:52
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But I would say it's a lot less horrible than I was predicting and that I was prepared for.
00:19:58
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My star rating is in the crapper.
00:20:01
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This is the first time Overcast has ever had a star rating below 4.5.
00:20:05
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I believe now I'm at 2.5, something like that.
00:20:08
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So my rating is destroyed and that's going to hurt me a lot.
00:20:11
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I hope that's only temporary.
00:20:13
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We will find out.
00:20:14
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I'm getting a lot of angry emails and tweets, lots of them.
00:20:18
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Lots of people who are not very kind about this change.
00:20:23
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But on the other hand, I've gotten a whole lot of people who are totally okay with it
00:20:27
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and like that there's no longer this weird difference between special features that patrons
00:20:33
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get and this weird terminology of patronage that even though it is also including special
00:20:41
◼
►
So now I simplified things.
00:20:44
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So now you have these ads and if you don't want to see ads, and then down the road I
00:20:48
◼
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might add a few little things here, but if you don't want to see ads, you can buy the
00:20:52
◼
►
annual subscription which is a new auto renewing kind and it's just called Overcast Premium.
00:20:56
◼
►
So no more patronage wording, no more messing with ideas of good will or charity over in
00:21:04
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that area because that was, as I said, problematic for a lot of people.
00:21:08
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Now it's just called Premium.
00:21:09
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You pay 10 bucks a year, you get ads.
00:21:11
◼
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This is a simplification even from the previous subscriptions.
00:21:15
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►
They were a dollar a month so it was $12 a year if you paid annually.
00:21:19
◼
►
This is even cheaper, $10 a year because it's nice and simple.
00:21:23
◼
►
And I even adjusted on all the different currencies around the world so that like a lot of the
00:21:26
◼
►
euro based ones were going to be like 10.50 euro and I said now just 9.99 is fine or 10
00:21:32
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even, whatever it is.
00:21:33
◼
►
So it made it very simple, much clearer wording and a much, honestly, simpler business model.
00:21:40
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►
There's ads in the app.
00:21:41
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►
If you want to get rid of them, you pay me 10 bucks a year.
00:21:43
◼
►
The amazing thing about this is that I get recurring revenue from anybody who's actually
00:21:48
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►
using the app.
00:21:49
◼
►
So I'm getting it somewhere, whether it's the ad or whether it's subscriptions, I'm
00:21:52
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►
getting recurring revenue from usage.
00:21:55
◼
►
And it's exactly what you said earlier, David.
00:21:57
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►
It's like I'm incentivized to keep people using the app and to make the app good enough
00:22:03
◼
►
that people will keep coming back and using it.
00:22:05
◼
►
I no longer have an incentive of like what am I going to do to push people over the next
00:22:10
◼
►
big version or what kind of crazy features can I come up with that'll make people pay
00:22:14
◼
►
and anger everybody else.
00:22:17
◼
►
I really just have to make the app better now.
00:22:19
◼
►
And as long as I do that, I make money from everybody who uses it.
00:22:23
◼
►
It's not like a massive amount more money, but it is more.
00:22:27
◼
►
And the ads, it's a little early to say how well the ads are working because it's
00:22:31
◼
►
only been a few days since I've had them in.
00:22:33
◼
►
But even in these few days, I've gotten a ton of more subscriptions.
00:22:40
◼
►
I haven't like doubled or anything, but that might happen, who knows.
00:22:44
◼
►
I haven't doubled yet, but I certainly have a lot more subscribers.
00:22:49
◼
►
These are also now all in the new Apple auto-renewing system, so that means a year from now if they
00:22:53
◼
►
still subscribe, I will get 85% instead of 70% from them, which is a big deal.
00:22:58
◼
►
And the ads are kind of making up the difference of trying to give me some money for everyone
00:23:04
◼
►
who's not a subscriber.
00:23:06
◼
►
And right now the amount of money the ads are making is fairly modest, but it's still
00:23:10
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►
very early and I still could experiment with different placements of the ad, different
00:23:14
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►
formats of ads, things like that.
00:23:17
◼
►
And I think it's ended up working out.
00:23:21
◼
►
And I'm going to have to figure out how the heck to make everybody happy enough to stop
00:23:24
◼
►
giving me one-star reviews and sending me nasty emails because my star rating is, as
00:23:28
◼
►
I mentioned, down from four and a half to two and a half with a very large volume.
00:23:35
◼
►
So I don't know about that, but the rest of it seems to be working okay.
00:23:39
◼
►
And the reality is too, it's the awkward thing of so much of this is coming, I think, from
00:23:44
◼
►
the change in business model.
00:23:48
◼
►
If the app that you just released were Overcast 1.0, I doubt you would have that same negativity.
00:23:56
◼
►
That's just the nature of these things where people are like, "Oh, I had this thing.
00:23:59
◼
►
It's like you were giving me this great app for free with no impingement at all upon me.
00:24:05
◼
►
Now it's a free app that is impinging on me slightly by showing me ads at the tops of
00:24:10
◼
►
some of the lists."
00:24:12
◼
►
And so that change, it feels like you've taken something from me, which you haven't really,
00:24:16
◼
►
but that's the way it feels, I imagine.
00:24:18
◼
►
And so over time, I suppose in some ways it's one of the nice things where one day I would
00:24:23
◼
►
love for the App Store to do a rolling average of reviews.
00:24:26
◼
►
The next time you do an update, your reviews will reset again, and you can hopefully put
00:24:30
◼
►
a lot of these one stars behind you and just sort of go from there.
00:24:35
◼
►
Yeah, I think that's really what I'm doing here.
00:24:40
◼
►
And a lot of people have asked why I didn't release this as part of a bigger 3.0 update,
00:24:46
◼
►
and I think the results speak for themselves.
00:24:49
◼
►
If I had released this as part of a whole bunch of other features and changes and a
00:24:53
◼
►
big push, similar to Apple's headphone jack thing, the story would have been all about
00:24:58
◼
►
the ads, and the star ratings would have been all about the ads, and the reviews would be
00:25:02
◼
►
all about the ads.
00:25:04
◼
►
And I feel like I'm better off making this transition to ad-based now while I'm still
00:25:09
◼
►
in the 2.x series.
00:25:11
◼
►
And then when I do a big 3.0 release down the road, hopefully not too far down the road,
00:25:15
◼
►
but when I do it down the road, the story will already include, like people who write
00:25:20
◼
►
out overcast, people who review overcast, people who use overcast will all already know,
00:25:25
◼
►
okay, this app is ad-driven.
00:25:26
◼
►
So that'll be old news, just like the headphone jack thing on the iPhone this week.
00:25:30
◼
►
We all knew about it months ago, so now it's old news, and we're all kind of accepting
00:25:33
◼
►
it and moving on and just evaluating the iPhone on its other merits.
00:25:36
◼
►
That's how this is going to be, I think, with overcast 3.0, that I'm going to be able to
00:25:41
◼
►
now do things freely and make the app great on its own merits, and the story won't be
00:25:48
◼
►
just about the ads when I finally launch it.
00:25:51
◼
►
And perhaps even moreover, it seems like I imagine, not to speak for you, but there's
00:25:55
◼
►
a slightly better incentive for you to really put that work into 3.0.
00:25:59
◼
►
Oh, massively.
00:26:00
◼
►
Because if it feels more sustainable and viable, it doesn't feel like you're just putting more
00:26:05
◼
►
time after something that kind of is slowly decaying over time, that you're just kind
00:26:10
◼
►
of, you put all this effort into a 3.0, all these new features, all these big updates,
00:26:14
◼
►
and then it's like, it's not actually going to make any difference at the end of the day.
00:26:17
◼
►
Like you could just leave the app as it is now and hope for the best.
00:26:21
◼
►
That is entirely correct.
00:26:22
◼
►
I mean, I was really not in a very good psychological place about the app before I launched the
00:26:27
◼
►
ads, because revenue was just flat, and flat at not a particularly great level.
00:26:32
◼
►
And I didn't really know what else to do.
00:26:33
◼
►
It felt hopeless.
00:26:35
◼
►
And now I have this big influx of subscribers, and I have this nice little kind of side money
00:26:39
◼
►
from the ads, and that is amazing.
00:26:43
◼
►
And that has lit a fire under me.
00:26:44
◼
►
Now you're totally right.
00:26:46
◼
►
It has totally turned around my motivation.
00:26:48
◼
►
I'm not thinking of like, oh, what other apps could I make to make more money?
00:26:52
◼
►
Now I'm just thinking, how do I make this even more amazing?
00:26:55
◼
►
And I have had an amazingly productive few days since launching the ads of just making
00:27:02
◼
►
the app incredibly better, like getting a lot of stuff done on 3.0, working through
00:27:07
◼
►
navigation changes and making custom animations, and cool stuff like that, that you can kind
00:27:13
◼
►
of only do if you're making money, or if you think you're going to make money on an app.
00:27:18
◼
►
Investing into it not just like bullet point features, but like polish and fun new things,
00:27:24
◼
►
and rethinking some of the design aspects.
00:27:28
◼
►
And I made the watch app a lot better for 3.0 also.
00:27:32
◼
►
Now I can think about adding a today widget, and all this, well I guess the now widget
00:27:35
◼
►
is called widgets, all this stuff that I can now do because there's money coming in,
00:27:40
◼
►
and at a reasonable rate now that I can be relatively assured of its future.
00:27:46
◼
►
And that's something I couldn't save before.
00:27:48
◼
►
And that made me, you know, honestly quite sad.
00:27:51
◼
►
Pretty much all summer as I watched the sales just kind of flatten.
00:27:54
◼
►
But now things have turned around, and I am kind of on fire now.
00:27:59
◼
►
And I'm like plowing through and doing all sorts of great stuff, and it feels great.
00:28:03
◼
►
And I think in the long run, even though right now it is quite painful to see my rating go
00:28:07
◼
►
so far down the tubes and to get all these angry messages from people, but I think long
00:28:11
◼
►
term it will be better for my users overall.
00:28:14
◼
►
Yeah, and I think the thing that I love so much about this change is like the ads are
00:28:19
◼
►
what they are.
00:28:20
◼
►
Like sometimes I feel like we can moralize about them and get all like fancy about it,
00:28:23
◼
►
but at the end of the day they're just a tool for businesses to make money.
00:28:26
◼
►
And what I love though is that it lets you, like with the things that you're talking
00:28:30
◼
►
about, the thing that I love about that is it's allowing you to not have to make this
00:28:34
◼
►
big case of like, I always hate the 3.0s that feel like it's like everything in the kitchen
00:28:39
◼
►
sink, right?
00:28:40
◼
►
It's just, I have to have these, I did all my good features in version one, I can made
00:28:44
◼
►
up some other stuff for version two.
00:28:46
◼
►
Version three, here's just everything else I could think of.
00:28:48
◼
►
It's just an assault by feature checklist.
00:28:50
◼
►
It's like now you can just say, you know, I'm just going to polish.
00:28:53
◼
►
I'm just going to keep polishing this and make it better and better and better because
00:28:57
◼
►
I'm not trying to upsell you on a paid upgrade or I'm not trying to do something like that.
00:29:01
◼
►
I just want to make the app as like the absolute best it can be and that sounds like an awesome
00:29:06
◼
►
place for you to be.
00:29:07
◼
►
It really, oh man, it feels great.
00:29:09
◼
►
I mean, you've been here before, I'm sure like it feels great.
00:29:12
◼
►
So I'm just so happy to finally kind of be like, be back in it again and to feel good
00:29:16
◼
►
about its financial future again.
00:29:18
◼
►
It's awesome.
00:29:20
◼
►
Well, here's hoping it goes well and we're out of time this week.
00:29:24
◼
►
Thank you everybody for listening and we will talk to you next week.