Developing Perspective

00:00:00 ◼   ► Hello, and welcome to Developing Perspective.

00:00:03 ◼   ► Developing Perspective is a podcast discussing news of note and iOS development, Apple and

00:00:07 ◼   ► the like.

00:00:08 ◼   ► I'm your host, David Smith.

00:00:09 ◼   ► I'm an independent iOS and Mac developer based in Virginia.

00:00:12 ◼   ► This is show number 141, and today is Friday, September 6, 2013.

00:00:16 ◼   ► Developing Perspective is never longer than 15 minutes, so let's get started.

00:00:20 ◼   ► All right, a quick update about the Developing Perspective shirts.

00:00:23 ◼   ► Don't want to get too much into it, but first, just a big thank you to all the people who've

00:00:28 ◼   ► supported, spread the word about it, and bought them, I suppose.

00:00:32 ◼   ► At this point, I think about 100 t-shirts have been sold.

00:00:36 ◼   ► So they'll definitely be printed either way.

00:00:39 ◼   ► I think the campaign ends sometime late on--

00:00:42 ◼   ► so this is coming Sunday, September 8.

00:00:45 ◼   ► So if you are interested in getting one, by all means do,

00:00:47 ◼   ► if that's your thing.

00:00:48 ◼   ► Otherwise, no.

00:00:49 ◼   ► And just wanted to let you know that the--

00:00:51 ◼   ► I also had LadyStyles.

00:00:54 ◼   ► I heard it had some requests for that.

00:00:55 ◼   ► So there's both the regular American Apparel standard men's style as well as more trim

00:01:00 ◼   ► fit lady styles.

00:01:02 ◼   ► All right, that's it on that front.

00:01:04 ◼   ► And I'm going to get into my main topic for today.

00:01:06 ◼   ► And that's going to be kind of two things.

00:01:08 ◼   ► One is going to be tearing down a little bit or expressing some of my skepticism and concerns.

00:01:14 ◼   ► Things I always think about are pundits.

00:01:16 ◼   ► And then I'm going to punditify.

00:01:19 ◼   ► I don't know exactly what the verb is to pundit.

00:01:21 ◼   ► But I will do that.

00:01:24 ◼   ► So it's always kind of a funny thing.

00:01:27 ◼   ► And I say things, a lot of things are funny things,

00:01:30 ◼   ► now that I think about it.

00:01:31 ◼   ► But it's an interesting thing that whenever-- just being

00:01:35 ◼   ► in the industry we are and being in the circle side

00:01:39 ◼   ► that I live in, that there's a lot of people who

00:01:41 ◼   ► we love speculating.

00:01:42 ◼   ► We love talking about things.

00:01:44 ◼   ► We love getting on our soapboxes and talking about stuff

00:01:48 ◼   ► that we don't really know a lot about.

00:01:50 ◼   ► And this has become especially evident to me

00:01:53 ◼   ► we've gotten into this, it seems like this very recent section where it's just one thing

00:01:56 ◼   ► after another is causing this. You know, we had Microsoft reorg, we had Ballmer stepping

00:02:01 ◼   ► down, we have Microsoft buying Nokia, we had Nintendo coming out with a new device, and

00:02:07 ◼   ► apparently that says setting forth the, you know, the death and L of their demise, apparently,

00:02:13 ◼   ► or I don't even really know, I'm not a big, big up on games. But the phrase that sort

00:02:19 ◼   ► has started permeating and kind of consistently entering my head as I've been listening to

00:02:23 ◼   ► all this, has been that it's like, whenever you're a pundit or someone on the outside

00:02:30 ◼   ► making these sort of observations or commentary on companies, on products and things like

00:02:37 ◼   ► that, the thing that comes most to mind to me is that pundits or people or commentators,

00:02:44 ◼   ► whatever you want to call them, are always making broad, sweeping statements with incomplete

00:02:51 ◼   ► information.

00:02:53 ◼   ► And those two things fundamentally pull the legs out of the likelihood of the accuracy,

00:03:06 ◼   ► the reliability, and the usefulness of their statements.

00:03:10 ◼   ► And that's a little bit unfortunate in a lot of ways.

00:03:13 ◼   ► That's kind of what they have to do.

00:03:15 ◼   ► Unless you are in the boardroom at Microsoft,

00:03:19 ◼   ► you're always speculating.

00:03:21 ◼   ► And you have to make kind of broad statements,

00:03:22 ◼   ► because getting really specific is either

00:03:26 ◼   ► unhelpful to communicate or impossible to do

00:03:29 ◼   ► with any kind of accuracy.

00:03:31 ◼   ► You're always dealing with incomplete information,

00:03:33 ◼   ► because you don't really know what's going on.

00:03:35 ◼   ► You're kind of drawing-- you're reading

00:03:37 ◼   ► the tea leaves of all the little things on the outside

00:03:39 ◼   ► that you're seeing.

00:03:41 ◼   ► And it's just that's what you're ending up with.

00:03:44 ◼   ► And it's always something that I always try and remind myself.

00:03:46 ◼   ► And this is part of why I'm just mentioning it.

00:03:47 ◼   ► It's just the thing I've been thinking about,

00:03:49 ◼   ► is making sure that I don't get too wrapped up

00:03:50 ◼   ► in that kind of commentary, in those kinds of comments,

00:03:53 ◼   ► and understanding that the reality is,

00:03:55 ◼   ► unless you're actually an executive at one

00:03:58 ◼   ► of these companies, you really don't know what's going on.

00:04:00 ◼   ► You don't know the intricacies of what their requirements are,

00:04:04 ◼   ► what their goals are, how things are going financially for them,

00:04:08 ◼   ► All these kinds of things that are just incomplete.

00:04:13 ◼   ► And so getting too wrapped up and speculating about them,

00:04:15 ◼   ► or thinking about it too much,

00:04:18 ◼   ► just isn't really productive.

00:04:19 ◼   ► And I'd rather focus on things that are probably more productive

00:04:21 ◼   ► in terms of just like, maybe I should just focus on making my apps

00:04:23 ◼   ► and making them awesome, rather than getting too worried about

00:04:27 ◼   ► what some large Fortune 500 company is reorganizing

00:04:30 ◼   ► or shaking up their executive board or whatever.

00:04:34 ◼   ► And similarly, you get into the rumor side of things with Apple.

00:04:38 ◼   ► And obviously, the big thing that is coming up is next Tuesday,

00:04:41 ◼   ► there's going to be an Apple event that will brighten our day.

00:04:45 ◼   ► And there's some amount of-- I'm about to get into this later--

00:04:49 ◼   ► that it's fun to talk about these things ahead of time.

00:04:52 ◼   ► It's fun to think about them and to be thoughtful.

00:04:56 ◼   ► And obviously, the best part is when you're proven right

00:04:59 ◼   ► is by far the best part of this, where you can make a prediction

00:05:04 ◼   ► and be right. It feels really cool. And it's kind of fun. And I think a lot of people like

00:05:08 ◼   ► talking about them because it's fun to talk about something where there is no definite,

00:05:15 ◼   ► there's no defined facts. So you can kind of let your mind wander and come up with exciting

00:05:20 ◼   ► things or interesting things or things that you'd like without kind of being tied down

00:05:26 ◼   ► by the burden of reality. And so it's kind of fun. And, but it's always just kind of,

00:05:31 ◼   ► You know, it's making sure--

00:05:33 ◼   ► my goal-- and this is something that I've

00:05:34 ◼   ► been having to keep telling myself--

00:05:35 ◼   ► making sure I'm not getting too caught up in that

00:05:37 ◼   ► and spending too much time reading,

00:05:39 ◼   ► telling people, talking in broad sweeping statements

00:05:41 ◼   ► about-- with incomplete information--

00:05:43 ◼   ► about things that maybe aren't as relevant to my actual work,

00:05:47 ◼   ► to my actual day-to-day, to my actual--

00:05:50 ◼   ► the work that I'm doing.

00:05:51 ◼   ► And so this is just something that I wanted to think about.

00:05:55 ◼   ► As I was preparing this, I was looking

00:05:57 ◼   ► at the origin of the phrase, you know, with a grain of salt.

00:06:01 ◼   ► So the classic thing is, you know, take this advice with a grain of salt or take this commentary with a grain of salt.

00:06:05 ◼   ► And apparently it was,

00:06:07 ◼   ► based on a lot, as best I can find from five minutes on Wikipedia,

00:06:10 ◼   ► it was a Latin phrase that was referring to using salt as an antidote for certain kinds of poisons,

00:06:17 ◼   ► which seemed pretty apt. They're getting too wrapped up and these kinds of things could potentially be a little bit poisonous.

00:06:22 ◼   ► Alright, so now I'm gonna go and pontificate. So that is,

00:06:27 ◼   ► So take all this with a big grain of salt,

00:06:30 ◼   ► making sure that it's not poisonous to you.

00:06:32 ◼   ► Hopefully I'll try and keep these kinds of things

00:06:34 ◼   ► a bit relevant.

00:06:35 ◼   ► But I think any tech podcaster has

00:06:38 ◼   ► to throw their hat in the ring a little bit

00:06:40 ◼   ► and talk about what they think is going to happen

00:06:42 ◼   ► and how that is important or relevant.

00:06:45 ◼   ► So next Tuesday, Apple's going to have an event.

00:06:47 ◼   ► And it's exciting.

00:06:48 ◼   ► I mean, I, for one, I get very excited by these.

00:06:51 ◼   ► It's kind of silly in a lot of ways.

00:06:53 ◼   ► I think a lot of people were excited last night when

00:06:56 ◼   ► The first game of the NFL season came on.

00:06:59 ◼   ► And a lot of people were excited about that.

00:07:00 ◼   ► A lot of people talk about it.

00:07:02 ◼   ► In a lot of ways, this is kind of my season opener.

00:07:08 ◼   ► This is the exciting part of the year for me,

00:07:10 ◼   ► as somebody who makes my living making apps in the App Store,

00:07:14 ◼   ► who is a long time-- this is how I've been making

00:07:17 ◼   ► my living for a long time.

00:07:18 ◼   ► And then it's just a really exciting time,

00:07:20 ◼   ► because this is when all the change happens.

00:07:22 ◼   ► This is when the new opportunities are created.

00:07:24 ◼   ► is when things get mixed up in interesting and fun ways.

00:07:27 ◼   ► And so it's exciting for me to think about what's

00:07:29 ◼   ► going to happen on next Tuesday.

00:07:32 ◼   ► If this is your first rodeo and you haven't really

00:07:35 ◼   ► gone through too many of these, essentially what's

00:07:37 ◼   ► going to happen next Tuesday is Apple's going

00:07:40 ◼   ► to have an event.

00:07:41 ◼   ► I think it's on their campus this time,

00:07:43 ◼   ► rather than one of the bigger auditoriums.

00:07:45 ◼   ► So it means it's-- you could argue back and forth

00:07:48 ◼   ► about exactly why that is.

00:07:49 ◼   ► I think often that's been when they have new hardware.

00:07:53 ◼   ► They've often done it that way, but that's

00:07:54 ◼   ► one of those vaguely general things,

00:07:57 ◼   ► because it gives them a bit more control of the venue,

00:07:59 ◼   ► rather than if they go to another place,

00:08:01 ◼   ► they have to take whatever the hardware is

00:08:03 ◼   ► and the technology with them outside.

00:08:05 ◼   ► But that's probably not a rule.

00:08:06 ◼   ► Obviously, they introduced the new Mac Pros at WWDC

00:08:09 ◼   ► in one of the largest convention centers in the West Coast.

00:08:13 ◼   ► So it's not certainly a rule, but I

00:08:14 ◼   ► think there's going to be some interesting things that

00:08:15 ◼   ► are going to happen.

00:08:16 ◼   ► I think the difficulty that Apple has now

00:08:19 ◼   ► is to hold interest and to be exciting when you already

00:08:25 ◼   ► have one of the best products in the world

00:08:27 ◼   ► that you're iterating on.

00:08:30 ◼   ► And especially when this is the year

00:08:31 ◼   ► that everyone widely expects that it should just be a bump.

00:08:35 ◼   ► So people are expecting there'll be the 5S, which

00:08:38 ◼   ► will be the current phone that we have that I absolutely love.

00:08:43 ◼   ► It's, I think, my favorite iPhone to date.

00:08:46 ◼   ► It wasn't quite the most dramatic improvement.

00:08:49 ◼   ► I remember when I first got my iPhone 4,

00:08:51 ◼   ► that was just absolutely sort of mind blowing

00:08:54 ◼   ► in terms of the engineering and the aesthetic

00:08:56 ◼   ► and the design of that.

00:08:57 ◼   ► And it was such a radical departure

00:08:59 ◼   ► that I remember really, really sort of being blown away by that.

00:09:02 ◼   ► But the iPhone 5 is definitely better than the iPhone 4

00:09:05 ◼   ► in a lot of tangible ways.

00:09:06 ◼   ► And I think what they're going to do

00:09:08 ◼   ► is they're going to take that and they're

00:09:09 ◼   ► going to iterate on it.

00:09:09 ◼   ► That's what they've done.

00:09:11 ◼   ► Kind of this pattern they've gotten

00:09:12 ◼   ► into with everything other than the iPhone 3G

00:09:16 ◼   ► is they put something out and they iterate on it,

00:09:21 ◼   ► and they put something out and they iterate on it,

00:09:23 ◼   ► and they go back and forth in that.

00:09:24 ◼   ► And it means that the products get better and better,

00:09:26 ◼   ► and it really helps them, I'm sure,

00:09:27 ◼   ► in the margins in terms of creating these things.

00:09:29 ◼   ► And I think it also helps developers and helps customers

00:09:32 ◼   ► because they're not constantly throwing everything out

00:09:37 ◼   ► and having to relearn or get familiar with something new.

00:09:40 ◼   ► That if I get an iPhone 5S,

00:09:43 ◼   ► it's going to still feel comfortable.

00:09:44 ◼   ► It's still going to feel normal rather than if they keep

00:09:47 ◼   ► changing screen sizes and they keep

00:09:48 ◼   ► changing weights and orientations and materials.

00:09:53 ◼   ► That's just one more thing to adapt to.

00:09:55 ◼   ► And it sounds like there's a lot of smoke around them

00:09:57 ◼   ► going to be introducing a new lower cost phone, which

00:10:00 ◼   ► I think is something I've talked about before.

00:10:01 ◼   ► It's something I'm excited about,

00:10:03 ◼   ► especially if it turns out to be a relatively capable phone.

00:10:06 ◼   ► I would be very disappointed as a developer if it wasn't

00:10:09 ◼   ► as capable as, say, for example, the iPhone 5

00:10:12 ◼   ► or something like that.

00:10:13 ◼   ► It would be really disappointing,

00:10:15 ◼   ► because I think they're going to sell a lot of them.

00:10:17 ◼   ► And we're going to have to be supporting whatever

00:10:19 ◼   ► the 5C, the new plastic back phone for a very long time.

00:10:26 ◼   ► And so I'd really like for it to be

00:10:27 ◼   ► something very capable and very compelling to work with.

00:10:32 ◼   ► And so I think if they did an iPhone 5 with cheaper

00:10:35 ◼   ► components, I think that would definitely be that.

00:10:37 ◼   ► And so I'm excited to see that.

00:10:39 ◼   ► And I think mostly just in the sense

00:10:40 ◼   ► that I think it helps anything that the Apple can

00:10:42 ◼   ► to help broaden the user base is always going to be good for developers.

00:10:46 ◼   ► There's an old cliche amongst app developers talking about,

00:10:51 ◼   ► "If I could just sell my app to a tenth of one percent

00:10:56 ◼   ► of all the people in the world with iPhones, I'd be living large."

00:11:01 ◼   ► And in many ways that is true.

00:11:05 ◼   ► And I think the tenth of one percent is still really hard to do,

00:11:07 ◼   ► but the reality is the bigger the pot,

00:11:09 ◼   ► that percent you need to have to hit that same kind of number.

00:11:12 ◼   ► And that's always just, I think, a good thing.

00:11:15 ◼   ► I think there's going to be some surprises.

00:11:17 ◼   ► I was thinking about this a lot this morning.

00:11:19 ◼   ► And I think the reality is if Apple just came out and introduced

00:11:22 ◼   ► those two products, I think it would feel anticlimactic.

00:11:27 ◼   ► And this is as somebody who is very excited about those two products,

00:11:32 ◼   ► in that they're not dramatic.

00:11:38 ◼   ► And I think if you're going to have an event,

00:11:40 ◼   ► you want to have it to be something dramatic.

00:11:42 ◼   ► And so I think they need some other stuff.

00:11:44 ◼   ► So whether that is new MacBook Pros, which

00:11:47 ◼   ► are due for an update, whether that is a retina cinema

00:11:50 ◼   ► display, which is just me dreaming,

00:11:52 ◼   ► whether that is new iPads, which I think

00:11:57 ◼   ► are probably going to be coming later on, potentially

00:12:00 ◼   ► in October.

00:12:01 ◼   ► Though I really hope they don't end up forking iOS 7

00:12:05 ◼   ► like they ended up having to do when they introduced

00:12:07 ◼   ► the initial iPad where we were on iOS 3.2 was different than the version that was running

00:12:14 ◼   ► on iPhones. It was a big mess. Hopefully they don't end up having to do that, but hopefully

00:12:22 ◼   ► the new iPads may not launch until a little bit later, a little closer into the holiday

00:12:27 ◼   ► season. But generally I think there'll be something else, and I'm not sure there'll

00:12:31 ◼   ► be a new product category at this point. I think this event is mostly going to be about

00:12:36 ◼   ► the iPhone, because he's certainly being in new iPod touches, new things they're doing

00:12:40 ◼   ► there that could be kind of interesting or exciting.

00:12:41 ◼   ► But I think there's got to be something.

00:12:43 ◼   ► There's got to be something that Apple does to just sort of fill out the event, because

00:12:51 ◼   ► it wouldn't take all that long for them to-- they'll go up and they'll talk about how the

00:12:54 ◼   ► retail is doing well.

00:12:55 ◼   ► They always like showing a picture or a video about a new store they opened somewhere in

00:12:58 ◼   ► the world that's in a kind of a cool place.

00:13:00 ◼   ► And then they'll launch into the products and kind of talk about them.

00:13:04 ◼   ► And I think it'll be interesting to see what that is.

00:13:06 ◼   ► What's that new exciting thing that they're trying to bring forward and talk about?

00:13:10 ◼   ► All right, that's it for me for my pontificating.

00:13:12 ◼   ► So that's kind of what I'm expecting next week.

00:13:15 ◼   ► And I'm excited about it.

00:13:16 ◼   ► I think it'll be fun.

00:13:17 ◼   ► I'll definitely be sitting there watching the live blogs or they live stream it hopefully.

00:13:20 ◼   ► I'll be watching the live streams and it'll be exciting to see what they do and hopefully

00:13:25 ◼   ► we'll have a lot of fun things to talk about next week.

00:13:27 ◼   ► I may end up doing a couple of shows next week or at least an off-schedule show to talk

00:13:32 ◼   ► about things as they're exciting and as they're interesting.

00:13:34 ◼   ► Often I find it's kind of fun to do a show right after an event, kind of do first impressions

00:13:38 ◼   ► before I read a lot of analysis from other people and kind of get my first thoughts out

00:13:44 ◼   ► and then to be able to kind of give a more thoughtful discussion maybe a little bit later

00:13:47 ◼   ► in the week.

00:13:48 ◼   ► All right, that's it for today's show.

00:13:49 ◼   ► As always, if you have questions, comments, concerns, or complaints, I'm on Twitter @_davidsmith.

00:13:53 ◼   ► Email me david@developingperspective.com.

00:13:56 ◼   ► And otherwise, I hope you have a great week, happy coding, and I will talk to you later.

00:13:59 ◼   ► Good luck with your iOS 7 updates.