Upgrade

00:00:00 ◼   ► *BEEP*

00:00:00 ◼   ► *Music*

00:00:08 ◼   ► From Relay FM, happy new year.

00:00:11 ◼   ► This is Upgrade, episode 440.

00:00:14 ◼   ► It's January the 2nd, 2023.

00:00:17 ◼   ► This episode is brought to you by

00:00:19 ◼   ► Ooni Pizza Ovens, Squarespace and Fitbald.

00:00:21 ◼   ► Yes, if this was your first indication that it was a new year,

00:00:25 ◼   ► happy new year to you.

00:00:27 ◼   ► My name is Myke Hurley and I'm joined by

00:00:29 ◼   ► Jason Snell. Hi, Jason.

00:00:30 ◼   ► Beep boop.

00:00:32 ◼   ► Beep boop.

00:00:33 ◼   ► Oh, no. Jason's a robot in 2020.

00:00:35 ◼   ► I am a robot. It's the year 2023.

00:00:37 ◼   ► Oh, it's the future. We're in the future now.

00:00:39 ◼   ► I robot now.

00:00:40 ◼   ► We're robot podcasts.

00:00:42 ◼   ► Oh, yeah. One of those robots.

00:00:45 ◼   ► Um, hi. It's...

00:00:46 ◼   ► I have been gone from my house for a couple of weeks,

00:00:50 ◼   ► not sitting at a desk, not talking into this microphone,

00:00:54 ◼   ► and I don't know how anything works anymore, so...

00:00:58 ◼   ► We'll work it out as we move along.

00:00:59 ◼   ► - You know, I'm really feeling the Monday morning podcast

00:01:03 ◼   ► thing right now is what I'm saying.

00:01:04 ◼   ► - The thing that will really help us here, right,

00:01:07 ◼   ► is having a very strict format for the show.

00:01:11 ◼   ► It's one of the great things about Upgrades.

00:01:13 ◼   ► And it helps you get going.

00:01:14 ◼   ► So we'll start off as we always do

00:01:16 ◼   ► with a Snow Talk question.

00:01:17 ◼   ► And this one comes from Zach and Zach says,

00:01:19 ◼   ► "Jason, do you enjoy fireworks?"

00:01:22 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:01:24 ◼   ► - A little behind the scenes everybody.

00:01:25 ◼   ► Originally Myke was gonna ask me

00:01:26 ◼   ► about my new year's resolutions or themes.

00:01:28 ◼   ► And I said, Myke, my answer is gonna be no,

00:01:30 ◼   ► I don't have any, give me something else.

00:01:33 ◼   ► Feed me something else.

00:01:34 ◼   ► - So I've given you fireworks instead.

00:01:35 ◼   ► - Do you enjoy fireworks?

00:01:37 ◼   ► - I just said, well, one was like a big meaty thing

00:01:43 ◼   ► and you didn't have that.

00:01:44 ◼   ► So I was like, well, let me go to the most simple

00:01:48 ◼   ► yes or no question for you.

00:01:49 ◼   ► - And the answer is they're pretty

00:01:52 ◼   ► and who doesn't like pretty sparkly things?

00:01:55 ◼   ► So yes, I do.

00:01:56 ◼   ► In fact, we just got to watch them

00:01:59 ◼   ► because we went to Disneyland.

00:02:02 ◼   ► Magical place on earth.

00:02:04 ◼   ► It is the, yes, the magic kingdom,

00:02:08 ◼   ► the happiest place on earth.

00:02:09 ◼   ► It's not, one of its slogans

00:02:10 ◼   ► is not the magical place on earth.

00:02:13 ◼   ► That's a little weird.

00:02:15 ◼   ► There's only one and it's at Disneyland.

00:02:18 ◼   ► You must find it.

00:02:18 ◼   ► Oh, Jason, I hate you right now.

00:02:21 ◼   ► At 9.30, at 9.30 PM, they do fireworks.

00:02:26 ◼   ► And we got there, we got up at 6 AM

00:02:29 ◼   ► and we got there by like before eight.

00:02:32 ◼   ► - I was close.

00:02:33 ◼   ► - And make a full day of it.

00:02:34 ◼   ► - The tagline that I was going for

00:02:36 ◼   ► was the most magical place on earth,

00:02:38 ◼   ► which was one of the taglines for the Magic Kingdom,

00:02:41 ◼   ► according to Wikipedia.

00:02:42 ◼   ► That's what I just forgot to say most.

00:02:45 ◼   ► - Okay, you got five out of the six words.

00:02:51 ◼   ► Anyway, we managed to gut it out

00:02:54 ◼   ► and get all the way to the fireworks

00:02:56 ◼   ► and watch the fireworks and they were very pretty.

00:02:58 ◼   ► And then we went home, went to bed and slept like logs

00:03:01 ◼   ► because that was a very long day.

00:03:03 ◼   ► - I wanna know everything about your Disneyland experience,

00:03:07 ◼   ► but we're not gonna talk about it in the regular show.

00:03:10 ◼   ► I'm gonna save that for Upgrade Plus.

00:03:11 ◼   ► I wanna know everything.

00:03:13 ◼   ► We got a lot on the docket today.

00:03:15 ◼   ► I feel like maybe you shouldn't derail the entire episode

00:03:17 ◼   ► asking you about Disneyland.

00:03:19 ◼   ► So go to getupgradeplus.com.

00:03:20 ◼   ► you can sign up and hear what Jason thinks about Disneyland.

00:03:24 ◼   ► - I should say also, also well aware,

00:03:28 ◼   ► amateurs firing off fireworks at midnight

00:03:30 ◼   ► on New Year's Eve are annoying.

00:03:34 ◼   ► Many animals are disturbed by fireworks.

00:03:35 ◼   ► In fact, our dog growing up, we had to give him a pill.

00:03:40 ◼   ► And we brought him in the house

00:03:43 ◼   ► 'cause he was an outside dog,

00:03:43 ◼   ► but we would bring him in the house on 4th of July,

00:03:46 ◼   ► give him a pill, and then he would just sleep

00:03:48 ◼   ► in front of the stove because he got very upset

00:03:53 ◼   ► by the sound of the fireworks.

00:03:54 ◼   ► So understandable, and yet as a human,

00:03:58 ◼   ► I enjoy the fireworks.

00:03:59 ◼   ► They're very bright and shiny and fun.

00:04:01 ◼   ► - I like fireworks.

00:04:02 ◼   ► I think nobody should be able to buy fireworks.

00:04:04 ◼   ► I think fireworks should be a thing

00:04:06 ◼   ► that are professionals only.

00:04:08 ◼   ► - Yeah, yeah, I agree.

00:04:10 ◼   ► Just you'll blow your hand off with those fireworks.

00:04:12 ◼   ► Don't do it.

00:04:13 ◼   ► And I say this again, as somebody whose father

00:04:15 ◼   ► would buy fireworks and fire them all off,

00:04:17 ◼   ► from a table on the 4th of July.

00:04:21 ◼   ► And it's amazing that we didn't all explode/burn down.

00:04:26 ◼   ► - If you would like to send in a Snow Talk question

00:04:29 ◼   ► of your own, you can send them out via Twitter

00:04:31 ◼   ► with the hashtag SnowTalk.

00:04:32 ◼   ► You can use question mark SnowTalk

00:04:33 ◼   ► in the Relay FM members Discord.

00:04:35 ◼   ► And probably by the next time you hear this,

00:04:37 ◼   ► we'll have our feedback system up and running.

00:04:40 ◼   ► So maybe when you're listening to this,

00:04:42 ◼   ► if you go to the webpage for this episode,

00:04:44 ◼   ► you'll see a little thing that says feedback

00:04:46 ◼   ► and you could send it in that way too.

00:04:48 ◼   ► We'll talk about it next week more

00:04:49 ◼   ► because it should be up and running by next week.

00:04:51 ◼   ► - Great.

00:04:53 ◼   ► - I have some follow up for you, Jason.

00:04:55 ◼   ► - Okay.

00:04:56 ◼   ► - Nine to five Mac is reporting that the iPhone 14 Pro,

00:05:00 ◼   ► its availability now appears to be improving.

00:05:04 ◼   ► Wait times are decreasing for home delivery.

00:05:06 ◼   ► Some models have same day pickup.

00:05:08 ◼   ► So Apple seems to be getting their hands

00:05:10 ◼   ► around this issue now.

00:05:12 ◼   ► - You know how I knew this was happening?

00:05:14 ◼   ► because, okay, over the holiday, I'm an American,

00:05:18 ◼   ► a lot of football, a lot of college football,

00:05:20 ◼   ► a lot of professional football, a lot of football on.

00:05:23 ◼   ► And I watch the football, and not that football

00:05:27 ◼   ► that you're thinking of, the actual American football.

00:05:29 ◼   ► Anyway, I have noticed with amusement

00:05:33 ◼   ► that for a while they were running iPhone 14 ads,

00:05:41 ◼   ► which have a Idris Elba song behind them.

00:05:46 ◼   ► - Yeah, I like that song.

00:05:48 ◼   ► It's fun.

00:05:49 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's a lot of fun.

00:05:50 ◼   ► I was like, this sort of sounds like it's Idris Elba.

00:05:52 ◼   ► I looked it up.

00:05:53 ◼   ► He is the artist on that track.

00:05:55 ◼   ► Okay.

00:05:56 ◼   ► Anyway, last week I noticed all of a sudden

00:06:01 ◼   ► they're doing the iPhone 14 Pro ads again

00:06:08 ◼   ► with a different song.

00:06:10 ◼   ► and I thought, and with the dynamic island and all of that,

00:06:13 ◼   ► and I thought they must have them in stock again, right?

00:06:17 ◼   ► Like, cause they very much stopped for the holidays.

00:06:21 ◼   ► Like they stopped advertising the iPhone 14 Pro.

00:06:24 ◼   ► And like right after Christmas, boom, they were back.

00:06:28 ◼   ► So obviously they are catching up now.

00:06:33 ◼   ► And whether that is that they are meeting more demand

00:06:36 ◼   ► or whether that's the demand has gone down

00:06:38 ◼   ► because it's post Christmas now, I don't know.

00:06:42 ◼   ► But what better sign that the iPhone 14 Pro is back

00:06:47 ◼   ► than that Apple's actually advertising it again

00:06:49 ◼   ► after they stopped for a while and said,

00:06:51 ◼   ► "No, no, the iPhone 14 is great, 14, 14."

00:06:55 ◼   ► So yeah, it's back, baby.

00:06:59 ◼   ► - I went into the Apple Store app today

00:07:01 ◼   ► to kind of just look at this myself.

00:07:02 ◼   ► And there are, most of the phones

00:07:04 ◼   ► were still into January here,

00:07:05 ◼   ► but there was one thing that I don't recall seeing before.

00:07:08 ◼   ► You know, like you get the delivery dates

00:07:10 ◼   ► and it's like available in store for home delivery.

00:07:14 ◼   ► There was a button that said need it sooner.

00:07:16 ◼   ► And if I tap that, it showed me different models,

00:07:20 ◼   ► either colors or sizes that were immediately available

00:07:23 ◼   ► for in-store pickup and stuff like that.

00:07:25 ◼   ► I thought that was very interesting.

00:07:27 ◼   ► It was silent at times.

00:07:29 ◼   ► But yes, I think the key here is

00:07:32 ◼   ► now that the Christmas rush is mostly over, I would expect,

00:07:37 ◼   ► and/or they've gotten their production more in check,

00:07:41 ◼   ► which we've been talking about,

00:07:42 ◼   ► which we were talking about before all of the holiday

00:07:46 ◼   ► frivolities that have occurred on the show

00:07:47 ◼   ► over the last few weeks,

00:07:49 ◼   ► that Apple have kind of gotten that

00:07:51 ◼   ► a little bit more under control.

00:07:54 ◼   ► But I'm still very keen to see what the hole

00:07:58 ◼   ► in the earnings report's gonna be

00:07:59 ◼   ► for what this Christmas has done.

00:08:02 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:08:03 ◼   ► - We spoke about third-party app stores

00:08:05 ◼   ► during the antitrust holiday special.

00:08:07 ◼   ► And we had--

00:08:09 ◼   ► - It's the most wonderful time of the year, sorry.

00:08:11 ◼   ► It's the wonderful time of the year.

00:08:12 ◼   ► - The wonderful, thank you.

00:08:14 ◼   ► No, it's wonderful time of the year.

00:08:16 ◼   ► - It's wonderful time of year.

00:08:18 ◼   ► - It's wonderful time of year.

00:08:19 ◼   ► And Mark wrote in a piece of feedback,

00:08:22 ◼   ► which was something I wanted to talk about on the episode,

00:08:25 ◼   ► and so we could talk about it now.

00:08:27 ◼   ► I'll read this remark.

00:08:28 ◼   ► It's a chunk, but let me get through it.

00:08:32 ◼   ► I think there is a huge risk from companies like Epic or Meta or Amazon or TikTok or others

00:08:38 ◼   ► launching stores with free apps that are quickly seen as indispensable hot new things by people.

00:08:43 ◼   ► Typically younger audiences, for example my teenage kids, are in the thrall of Snap and

00:08:47 ◼   ► TikTok and be real because all their friends are.

00:08:50 ◼   ► I think this presents a huge risk because most parents will not be able to resist allowing

00:08:54 ◼   ► this, and once they're all set up on those stores it quickly becomes uncool to use the

00:08:58 ◼   ► boring regular app store.

00:09:00 ◼   ► It's not a certainty, but it seems this would be exactly what Meta or ByteDance and Co would

00:09:05 ◼   ► immediately work hard to achieve.

00:09:07 ◼   ► Do you think this is a tangible risk?

00:09:09 ◼   ► If not, how so?

00:09:10 ◼   ► Well, this is a thing that I've heard a lot when people talk about third party app stores.

00:09:14 ◼   ► It's just like, oh, Facebook will set one up and then they'll leave the app store.

00:09:18 ◼   ► But there is a case in, there is an existing case, which is Android, where there have been

00:09:25 ◼   ► people can sideload and put third party apps on their devices.

00:09:29 ◼   ► historically it was proven this is not a good idea for anybody and most of the

00:09:34 ◼   ► apps that have done this have either had multiple versions or ended up just kind

00:09:39 ◼   ► of abandoning it right I also kind of feel like just you know again Android

00:09:46 ◼   ► and iOS they're different you know we don't really know how it would go on iOS

00:09:50 ◼   ► but my kind of feeling is like all of these apps that Mark's mentioned they

00:09:55 ◼   ► They need to be where the mass market is.

00:09:58 ◼   ► They need to do that.

00:09:59 ◼   ► - That's right.

00:10:00 ◼   ► - Epic did it with Fortnite, kind of,

00:10:05 ◼   ► but there's a whole different thing

00:10:06 ◼   ► around what's going on with Fortnite.

00:10:09 ◼   ► Where they wanted to get kicked off the store

00:10:11 ◼   ► so they could try and get their own store.

00:10:14 ◼   ► But they got a whole other play going on.

00:10:16 ◼   ► Because Epic actually do already

00:10:17 ◼   ► run their own store business.

00:10:19 ◼   ► So it's like Steam would like their own store as well.

00:10:22 ◼   ► But I don't really imagine Meta wanting to set up

00:10:26 ◼   ► their own app store and then only offer Instagram

00:10:29 ◼   ► and Facebook and Facebook Messenger through it.

00:10:32 ◼   ► 'Cause they, and even if they did wanna do that,

00:10:36 ◼   ► I can't imagine that they also still wouldn't offer

00:10:38 ◼   ► those apps in the app store, right?

00:10:40 ◼   ► - Right.

00:10:41 ◼   ► This is the, and we did address this in the episode,

00:10:44 ◼   ► but the idea here is that yes, it's been tried on Android

00:10:47 ◼   ► and everybody realizes you need to be

00:10:48 ◼   ► in the default app store.

00:10:50 ◼   ► These are huge businesses.

00:10:52 ◼   ► the last thing they wanna do is make people go through

00:10:53 ◼   ► a multi-stage process to sideload their app

00:10:57 ◼   ► off of the App Store.

00:10:59 ◼   ► Because although you might say, oh, you know, indispensable

00:11:02 ◼   ► and my kids are in the thrall of Snapchat or whatever,

00:11:05 ◼   ► the truth is they, you know, giving up whatever the number

00:11:10 ◼   ► is 90%, 80%, 60% of your audience who won't follow you

00:11:15 ◼   ► out of the App Store is not an option.

00:11:17 ◼   ► It's not an option, right?

00:11:19 ◼   ► And there are very few companies are gonna say,

00:11:20 ◼   ► let us sabotage our primary business

00:11:23 ◼   ► in order to do this App Store thing that we wanna do.

00:11:25 ◼   ► Like, try to pencil out how that makes sense

00:11:28 ◼   ► for almost anybody.

00:11:29 ◼   ► - Imagine if this does work, right?

00:11:31 ◼   ► Imagine if this is the thing and they go

00:11:33 ◼   ► and like people then wanna use the meta App Store

00:11:36 ◼   ► 'cause it's got like a bunch of cool games in it

00:11:38 ◼   ► or whatever that are free.

00:11:40 ◼   ► I feel like there's still two things left, which is one,

00:11:43 ◼   ► Apple's still going to offer some level of protection,

00:11:46 ◼   ► some kind of like threat protection,

00:11:47 ◼   ► notarization or whatever for like truly bad stuff.

00:11:50 ◼   ► Then the only difference is the guidelines, right?

00:11:53 ◼   ► I feel like.

00:11:54 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:11:55 ◼   ► - And I still feel like companies of this size,

00:11:59 ◼   ► like a meta or whatever,

00:12:01 ◼   ► they can't let truly terrible stuff

00:12:02 ◼   ► in an app store that they control.

00:12:04 ◼   ► Like just from a PR perspective.

00:12:08 ◼   ► - Well, the argument becomes,

00:12:09 ◼   ► oh, well, it'll be creepy and, you know,

00:12:13 ◼   ► it'll do app tracking and stuff like that, right?

00:12:16 ◼   ► It'll be creepy in terms of tracking your behavior.

00:12:20 ◼   ► It's like, okay, yeah, and that's not great,

00:12:24 ◼   ► but the solution is not to use it.

00:12:26 ◼   ► And I would probably argue that, you know,

00:12:29 ◼   ► if you're using Facebook or TikTok today,

00:12:34 ◼   ► I mean, they may not be, they know all about you yet.

00:12:38 ◼   ► They may not be doing third-party tracking,

00:12:40 ◼   ► but they're tracking you already.

00:12:41 ◼   ► So I think that's a little bit ridiculous.

00:12:44 ◼   ► I also, I gotta be honest,

00:12:46 ◼   ► we got a bunch of feedback about this,

00:12:48 ◼   ► where for people who are fighting the last war,

00:12:51 ◼   ► there are a lot of people who seem to be arguing with us

00:12:53 ◼   ► about why Apple shouldn't do this.

00:12:55 ◼   ► So let me just put it again, what we said in that episode,

00:12:59 ◼   ► which is we're not talking about

00:13:02 ◼   ► whether Apple should do this.

00:13:03 ◼   ► We're talking about a report from a reporter

00:13:06 ◼   ► with great credibility saying Apple is doing this

00:13:10 ◼   ► because it has to do it.

00:13:12 ◼   ► So you can argue all you like

00:13:14 ◼   ► about why you think it's still a bad idea,

00:13:17 ◼   ► but it's happening, right?

00:13:18 ◼   ► Because the EU is making it happen.

00:13:20 ◼   ► And so the question becomes,

00:13:22 ◼   ► what are the ramifications of this?

00:13:24 ◼   ► And if you're concerned about this stuff, I get it.

00:13:27 ◼   ► But I think we've said before, and we just said again today,

00:13:31 ◼   ► I think people are overstating it

00:13:33 ◼   ► because I think they are hyping up the arguments

00:13:35 ◼   ► about why Apple shouldn't do it.

00:13:37 ◼   ► And Apple is number one in hyping those arguments,

00:13:40 ◼   ► but I think they overdo it.

00:13:42 ◼   ► I think that the rhetoric on this is overheated

00:13:46 ◼   ► and it will not be that big a deal.

00:13:49 ◼   ► It will be a big deal, but not like a cataclysm

00:13:52 ◼   ► because of what we just said,

00:13:53 ◼   ► which is very few companies are going to make the risk

00:13:58 ◼   ► of pulling their whole business out of the app store

00:14:00 ◼   ► and hoping to walk you through a multi-stage process

00:14:04 ◼   ► to get you across to their store.

00:14:07 ◼   ► Most companies are not gonna,

00:14:09 ◼   ► even if they go in other app stores or offer a sideload,

00:14:12 ◼   ► are not gonna wanna abandon the app store

00:14:14 ◼   ► because it is the easiest.

00:14:15 ◼   ► And if you're a parent, I mean, you say,

00:14:17 ◼   ► "Well, my kids are gonna, I don't know,

00:14:19 ◼   ► bully me into turning it off

00:14:20 ◼   ► so that they can have this coolness."

00:14:22 ◼   ► Like, it raises the bar.

00:14:24 ◼   ► And the answer is, as a parent, you have to say,

00:14:26 ◼   ► "Nuh-uh, I'm not letting you out of the App Store."

00:14:29 ◼   ► And I think a lot of parents won't.

00:14:30 ◼   ► And again, then if you're an app

00:14:31 ◼   ► that's trying to appeal to that audience,

00:14:33 ◼   ► you once again are faced with that same dilemma,

00:14:36 ◼   ► which is, well, how many audience members do I lose

00:14:41 ◼   ► by not being in the App Store?

00:14:44 ◼   ► And I'm telling you, for almost every case,

00:14:47 ◼   ► the answer is too many.

00:14:48 ◼   ► - And the other thing about this is,

00:14:52 ◼   ► part of I think the thing we keep talking about is that

00:14:56 ◼   ► it should never have had to get here.

00:14:58 ◼   ► Like this should have been something

00:15:00 ◼   ► that Apple should have dealt with on their own,

00:15:01 ◼   ► but they decided not to.

00:15:03 ◼   ► Out of greed, really, I think.

00:15:06 ◼   ► At some point, it changed from any other reason it was

00:15:09 ◼   ► just to greed.

00:15:10 ◼   ► And now,

00:15:13 ◼   ► as Jason said, the train has left the station, right?

00:15:15 ◼   ► Like it's happening.

00:15:17 ◼   ► So now we're just talking about like,

00:15:19 ◼   ► how are they gonna make it work?

00:15:20 ◼   ► 'Cause they're gonna have to.

00:15:21 ◼   ► - Right, what form will it take?

00:15:23 ◼   ► And what will it result is where we are.

00:15:26 ◼   ► But I remain convinced

00:15:29 ◼   ► that you're not gonna have mainstream apps

00:15:33 ◼   ► that just utterly abandon the app store for their own thing

00:15:37 ◼   ► and make everybody go through those hoops

00:15:39 ◼   ► in order to get out of the app store.

00:15:41 ◼   ► because as I said a couple of weeks ago,

00:15:44 ◼   ► most people won't do it, right?

00:15:45 ◼   ► Most people are gonna be, are gonna get that,

00:15:48 ◼   ► this app may kill you warning from Apple and be like,

00:15:51 ◼   ► "Oh, I don't wanna die, no."

00:15:55 ◼   ► The end, right?

00:15:56 ◼   ► End scene.

00:15:57 ◼   ► And they didn't sideload anything, right?

00:16:00 ◼   ► And so like, it's a big, it's not to use this phrase,

00:16:04 ◼   ► but I guess I'll use it, it's a big ask.

00:16:05 ◼   ► It is a very high level request to get somebody

00:16:07 ◼   ► to turn off all those features

00:16:09 ◼   ► and install something from the outside.

00:16:10 ◼   ► And like most people are just not gonna do it.

00:16:12 ◼   ► The App Store is too easy.

00:16:14 ◼   ► It's too easy.

00:16:14 ◼   ► - I wanted to do a quick piece of follow-out to something.

00:16:18 ◼   ► So back in September, my friend Ian visited London

00:16:21 ◼   ► and Mega Studio and we shot a studio tour video

00:16:24 ◼   ► that I'd previously spoken about on the show.

00:16:26 ◼   ► We also recorded like an interview.

00:16:28 ◼   ► So he sat down and interviewed me.

00:16:30 ◼   ► And I've done a bunch of interviews over the many years

00:16:34 ◼   ► about podcasting and on various shows and stuff.

00:16:37 ◼   ► But this time it was about other things,

00:16:39 ◼   ► which I really enjoyed.

00:16:41 ◼   ► So we spoke about kind of my product design work

00:16:43 ◼   ► at Cortex Brand and my keyboard and streaming stuff.

00:16:47 ◼   ► So I really liked how this turned out.

00:16:49 ◼   ► I was very proud of it.

00:16:50 ◼   ► And these are important things in my life

00:16:52 ◼   ► that I don't get to talk about very much.

00:16:54 ◼   ► And so I wanted to let people know that it's out there

00:16:56 ◼   ► if they wanna listen to it.

00:16:58 ◼   ► Or watch it, it's a YouTube video.

00:17:00 ◼   ► I mean, you could listen,

00:17:01 ◼   ► but you probably also would wanna watch.

00:17:04 ◼   ► Also, Jason, this is what it's like

00:17:07 ◼   ► when I don't use Twitter anymore.

00:17:09 ◼   ► Like this is where I now, if I have things like this,

00:17:13 ◼   ► I have to talk about them on my shows.

00:17:15 ◼   ► - That's true. - This is like a weird,

00:17:17 ◼   ► like a weird thing that I'm trying to work out still.

00:17:19 ◼   ► - So was that a tweet just there?

00:17:20 ◼   ► - Yeah, I just tweeted, yeah. - Was that a tweet saying,

00:17:22 ◼   ► I have a video you should see?

00:17:24 ◼   ► - In case you missed it, it's this YouTube video.

00:17:28 ◼   ► You know, that's what I'm doing now.

00:17:30 ◼   ► This episode is brought to you by our friends

00:17:32 ◼   ► at Ooni Pizza Ovens.

00:17:34 ◼   ► Ooni is the world's number one pizza oven company.

00:17:37 ◼   ► And Jason, I don't know if you know this,

00:17:39 ◼   ► but I will tell you anyway,

00:17:40 ◼   ► Ooni has just celebrated their 10th year.

00:17:44 ◼   ► Been around for 10 years making pizzas.

00:17:46 ◼   ► - I didn't know about them until a couple of years ago

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00:17:53 ◼   ► This is not a fly by night operation

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00:17:56 ◼   ► - They are the pizza experts since 2012.

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00:18:00 ◼   ► - It's more than 10 years, Myke.

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00:18:56 ◼   ► You can go to uni and get everything. They have peels and cutters. They do things so you can cook

00:19:01 ◼   ► steaks in them now, they have like these grill plates.

00:19:04 ◼   ► So it's not just pizza, you could use this for other stuff,

00:19:06 ◼   ► but it is a pizza oven.

00:19:08 ◼   ► As I'm sure Jason can attest,

00:19:10 ◼   ► good pizza comes from a new new pizza oven.

00:19:12 ◼   ► - Yes, indeed.

00:19:13 ◼   ► It's so nice to get that extra, the extra heat

00:19:16 ◼   ► of the, of like, my oven only goes up to about 500 inside,

00:19:22 ◼   ► but I can get up to 700, 800 Fahrenheit outside,

00:19:25 ◼   ► which means they cook fast.

00:19:27 ◼   ► You get the burn, burn day, you know,

00:19:30 ◼   ► cheese and toppings on top.

00:19:31 ◼   ► And it's like a wood-fired pizza oven, which the pros,

00:19:36 ◼   ► the pros at the great pizza places

00:19:38 ◼   ► all have the wood-fired ovens that are super hot.

00:19:40 ◼   ► And you can't get that in your regular home oven.

00:19:43 ◼   ► And then for me, I just have,

00:19:44 ◼   ► mine is the model that is attached to propane.

00:19:47 ◼   ► So I have a propane cylinder.

00:19:49 ◼   ► It's literally the same propane cylinder

00:19:51 ◼   ► I have for a gas grill.

00:19:53 ◼   ► It's the same one we have for our gas heater, for our patio.

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00:20:28 ◼   ► this show and relay FM saddle on up partner it's time for a room around up

00:20:35 ◼   ► yeah okay is that still what we do it's ten it's 23 I don't even know anymore I

00:20:41 ◼   ► mean we're a little bit more modern with our roundups you know like maybe there's

00:20:47 ◼   ► like carts now as well as just the horses but okay moving slowly into the

00:20:52 ◼   ► future. With iOS 16.2, Apple released an architecture update for the home app

00:20:59 ◼   ► that was intended to improve a lot of HomeKit reliability stuff and enable

00:21:03 ◼   ► full support for MATA. This required people updating every device that was

00:21:09 ◼   ► attached to their home and it was complicated. It was actually something I

00:21:13 ◼   ► hadn't gone through yet because it was just like I looked at it and it was like

00:21:16 ◼   ► you got these three days just too much of a pain so I just didn't get around to

00:21:19 ◼   ► it. This has now been pulled from 16.2. You can no longer do the upgrade. It is expected

00:21:34 ◼   ► this may have been because of some reports of people having issues with their homekit

00:21:39 ◼   ► scenes or devices no longer working. MacRumors is reporting that "Apple has added the Home

00:21:45 ◼   ► app update to a database of hardware and software issues internally, which is a rare move for

00:21:51 ◼   ► a software-related problem. The list used by Apple, Apple stores, and authorized service

00:21:55 ◼   ► providers typically only includes widespread issues faced by customers, including mostly

00:22:00 ◼   ► hardware problems. So it's not going great for the new home architecture. You could say,

00:22:05 ◼   ► Jason, that the foundations of this are a little shaky.

00:22:10 ◼   ► Ooh, I see what you did there.

00:22:12 ◼   ► The roof's a little leaky.

00:22:15 ◼   ► - I'm sad about this,

00:22:19 ◼   ► 'cause I've also seen like a couple of companies

00:22:21 ◼   ► that were doing their Matter upgrades,

00:22:23 ◼   ► they've delayed them.

00:22:24 ◼   ► Seems like this has maybe been a little bit more complicated

00:22:27 ◼   ► to implement than was otherwise expected.

00:22:31 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's gonna, I mean, we did say

00:22:32 ◼   ► it's gonna be a transitional period, it's gonna be rough.

00:22:35 ◼   ► And this is, I believe this isn't even Matter,

00:22:38 ◼   ► it's the new architecture that allows them

00:22:39 ◼   ► to support matter.

00:22:41 ◼   ► And I will say clearly they built a trap door into this.

00:22:44 ◼   ► So they must have been a little wary of that

00:22:46 ◼   ► because they built in a thing that let them flip the switch

00:22:48 ◼   ► and like not offer that upgrade.

00:22:52 ◼   ► And it was already not like you had to go looking for it.

00:22:56 ◼   ► So this was all a very careful test rollout of this.

00:23:01 ◼   ► So I'm not really surprised,

00:23:05 ◼   ► but it is a little disappointing.

00:23:08 ◼   ► But then again, I also liked the fact

00:23:09 ◼   ► that Apple is being careful with this, right?

00:23:12 ◼   ► And not just doing what I think an Apple in the past

00:23:14 ◼   ► might have done, which is just roll it out to everybody

00:23:16 ◼   ► and go, "Good luck!"

00:23:18 ◼   ► And then have bad things happen to people's homes, right?

00:23:22 ◼   ► Which is not good.

00:23:23 ◼   ► Like, my lights don't work anymore.

00:23:25 ◼   ► - Do you remember like the days

00:23:27 ◼   ► where they would have an iOS update?

00:23:28 ◼   ► - Apple bricked my house!

00:23:30 ◼   ► Right, that'd be the story, right?

00:23:32 ◼   ► - Do you remember they used to have those days

00:23:33 ◼   ► of iOS updates where they would roll them out

00:23:36 ◼   ► and something terrible would happen and they'd have to stop?

00:23:39 ◼   ► Like there was like a thing of like,

00:23:40 ◼   ► if you would do the iOS update

00:23:42 ◼   ► and it would like break your entire device,

00:23:44 ◼   ► that stuff is rough.

00:23:45 ◼   ► I think that's why they do these things now

00:23:47 ◼   ► where if you have automatic updates on,

00:23:50 ◼   ► they don't push it immediately.

00:23:52 ◼   ► Like it can sometimes take a little while,

00:23:54 ◼   ► like download it and maybe they have like a thing

00:23:56 ◼   ► where they then start updating them on a rolling basis.

00:23:59 ◼   ► Like the automatic update stuff,

00:24:00 ◼   ► it's not like as soon as the update comes out,

00:24:02 ◼   ► it just goes for it.

00:24:04 ◼   ► It's interesting.

00:24:05 ◼   ► - Yeah, they're being careful.

00:24:06 ◼   ► And that seems to have paid off in this case,

00:24:10 ◼   ► that they needed to be careful.

00:24:12 ◼   ► - According to posts shared by MacRumors,

00:24:14 ◼   ► Apple is supposedly quote, "seriously concerned"

00:24:18 ◼   ► about the sales of the iPhone 14 Plus.

00:24:21 ◼   ► So this is the bigger phone.

00:24:25 ◼   ► This is in the, I call this on connected,

00:24:27 ◼   ► the cursed spot for, I think now, for the iPhone lineup.

00:24:32 ◼   ► Right, 'cause it replaced the mini.

00:24:35 ◼   ► And it seems like this spot is a bad spot.

00:24:38 ◼   ► And Apple seems to be aware of that

00:24:40 ◼   ► because they are now supposedly reevaluating

00:24:43 ◼   ► the iPhone 15 lineup due to this.

00:24:46 ◼   ► I don't know what they could do.

00:24:47 ◼   ► Go on.

00:24:48 ◼   ► - Can I give you a little,

00:24:50 ◼   ► can I have a moment of schadenfreude here, please?

00:24:52 ◼   ► - Please.

00:24:53 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:24:55 ◼   ► - Oh, it turns out it isn't the Mini, is it?

00:24:59 ◼   ► The Mini isn't the problem, is it?

00:25:02 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:25:04 ◼   ► - I mean, it was a problem.

00:25:05 ◼   ► - But they just, they rearranged the deck chairs.

00:25:08 ◼   ► It's still a problem.

00:25:09 ◼   ► Let's make it big instead of small.

00:25:11 ◼   ► Surely that is the reason.

00:25:13 ◼   ► It's the smallness that offended, no, it's not.

00:25:16 ◼   ► Turns out I, okay, Myke, what do you think about this?

00:25:20 ◼   ► Ready?

00:25:21 ◼   ► This is a new thing we're doing in 2023 until we stop.

00:25:23 ◼   ► It's just in this episode though, probably.

00:25:25 ◼   ► Okay.

00:25:27 ◼   ► What if the iPhone 14's appeal,

00:25:29 ◼   ► let's assume the iPhone 14 does okay, right?

00:25:31 ◼   ► The Plus, the Mini haven't done well,

00:25:33 ◼   ► but the 14 does okay.

00:25:34 ◼   ► What if the iPhone 14's appeal is that it's cheap

00:25:37 ◼   ► and that's it?

00:25:39 ◼   ► And then, and like, it's a cheap regular phone.

00:25:43 ◼   ► What if that's it?

00:25:45 ◼   ► What if there is no like, oh, we've got two models

00:25:48 ◼   ► and people can choose.

00:25:49 ◼   ► And it's like, that's too complicated.

00:25:51 ◼   ► That they've, you've got the Pro,

00:25:53 ◼   ► which is like the really nice good phone that people get

00:25:55 ◼   ► if they've got the money to spend on the cutting edge.

00:25:57 ◼   ► And then you've got an option,

00:25:59 ◼   ► an option for something that's cheaper,

00:26:01 ◼   ► that's not on the cutting edge,

00:26:03 ◼   ► it's sort of a year back in terms of tech.

00:26:05 ◼   ► Like, I wonder if Apple has over complicated this.

00:26:08 ◼   ► I wonder if the truth is that most people,

00:26:10 ◼   ► at least the volumes that they wanna see, right?

00:26:13 ◼   ► Like not an SE or not a mini or a plus.

00:26:16 ◼   ► What if the complexity, like there's too much complexity

00:26:21 ◼   ► and it's really like you've got the Pro and the Pro Max

00:26:25 ◼   ► and then you've got a phone that's cheaper.

00:26:28 ◼   ► What if that's the most complexity that the market can bear

00:26:32 ◼   ► in terms of what consumers are looking for?

00:26:34 ◼   ► That there are very few consumers who are like,

00:26:37 ◼   ► well, I don't want the cutting edge great phone.

00:26:39 ◼   ► I want something cheaper.

00:26:41 ◼   ► Now let's shop in the line of cheaper phones

00:26:43 ◼   ► because it seems like that's sort of not happening.

00:26:45 ◼   ► And then like, and on one level,

00:26:48 ◼   ► I would say this is a success of like an iPhone 14, right?

00:26:53 ◼   ► And the 13 before it, like having a plain iPhone

00:26:58 ◼   ► As a cheaper model, I think maybe also was not necessarily

00:27:03 ◼   ► something that was going to succeed,

00:27:05 ◼   ► but it seems to have succeeded.

00:27:06 ◼   ► But then like blooming a lineup around it and being like,

00:27:11 ◼   ► ah, now that you pick from a bigger one or a smaller one

00:27:13 ◼   ► is like, maybe it's not the size,

00:27:18 ◼   ► maybe it's the complexity

00:27:20 ◼   ► that where people are just rejecting it.

00:27:21 ◼   ► It's like, no, no, no, I just want the iPhone that's cheaper.

00:27:25 ◼   ► Not the big iPhone, not the little iPhone,

00:27:27 ◼   ► just the iPhone that's cheaper.

00:27:29 ◼   ► And that beyond that,

00:27:30 ◼   ► Apple's trying to cut this too fine, I wonder.

00:27:33 ◼   ► - I agree with you.

00:27:35 ◼   ► I'm gonna say something slightly different,

00:27:37 ◼   ► but I do agree with you.

00:27:37 ◼   ► Where I think the issue might not be the complexity,

00:27:41 ◼   ► it's the simplicity of the other option,

00:27:43 ◼   ► which is like, hey, it's the cheap one,

00:27:46 ◼   ► but different in this one way.

00:27:48 ◼   ► And that maybe that's not enough.

00:27:51 ◼   ► - Yeah, well, that's, I mean,

00:27:51 ◼   ► that's what I mean by the complexity is that,

00:27:53 ◼   ► is that the, yes, it,

00:27:55 ◼   ► once you get past that first layer,

00:27:57 ◼   ► which is it's the cheap one.

00:27:58 ◼   ► I wonder if there's really a lot of desire

00:28:00 ◼   ► from any potential buyer to sort through the options

00:28:04 ◼   ► other than like, instead of just being like,

00:28:06 ◼   ► can I just have the default now, please?

00:28:09 ◼   ► So yes, you're saying what I'm saying,

00:28:10 ◼   ► which is that there's a simplicity and a complexity.

00:28:13 ◼   ► And are we surprised?

00:28:15 ◼   ► Maybe we shouldn't be.

00:28:16 ◼   ► That the consumers as a whole

00:28:19 ◼   ► don't really want that extra layer of complexity.

00:28:22 ◼   ► Maybe. - Like the thing

00:28:23 ◼   ► we don't know, like we don't know

00:28:25 ◼   ► is how this is sold compared to the Mini, right?

00:28:28 ◼   ► - Right.

00:28:29 ◼   ► - My expectation was it would sell more,

00:28:31 ◼   ► but I don't know that.

00:28:32 ◼   ► And even though Apple seemed seriously concerned,

00:28:34 ◼   ► it could have sold more, but now the concern is,

00:28:37 ◼   ► oh no, the problem is actually this fourth spot is bad.

00:28:42 ◼   ► Like the way we are doing this doesn't work.

00:28:45 ◼   ► So.

00:28:46 ◼   ► - And the way this is reported is also,

00:28:50 ◼   ► and this is all very hazy, right?

00:28:51 ◼   ► 'Cause it's only people inside Apple actually know this.

00:28:53 ◼   ► So there's just sort of like hubbub,

00:28:56 ◼   ► like little rumors, little rhubarb of like,

00:28:58 ◼   ► (mumbles)

00:28:58 ◼   ► what if it's bad?

00:28:59 ◼   ► But if we take it seriously,

00:29:01 ◼   ► and this is same time two years ago

00:29:03 ◼   ► where they said they're not gonna do the mini again

00:29:05 ◼   ► after next year, right?

00:29:06 ◼   ► They still had those plans in process, so they did it.

00:29:09 ◼   ► But they had very quickly, they looked at the numbers.

00:29:12 ◼   ► This is like a show opening and closing on Broadway

00:29:16 ◼   ► after like one performance,

00:29:17 ◼   ► where they look at the numbers,

00:29:18 ◼   ► they're like, it's not gonna make it.

00:29:20 ◼   ► So I think that that's interesting.

00:29:23 ◼   ► The way that this is phrased is not,

00:29:24 ◼   ► oh, they're worried about cannibalization from the Pro Max.

00:29:27 ◼   ► Like the Pro Max sales are doing fine, apparently, right?

00:29:30 ◼   ► The Pro and Pro Max sales are doing fine.

00:29:33 ◼   ► And so, yes, I agree with you.

00:29:34 ◼   ► I think maybe it's this slot

00:29:36 ◼   ► and that the idea that they are varying it in this way

00:29:40 ◼   ► in giving you two choices at the low end

00:29:43 ◼   ► that people don't want two choices

00:29:44 ◼   ► at the low end necessarily.

00:29:46 ◼   ► And I think that's interesting, right?

00:29:47 ◼   ► Like, look, let's harken back to when Apple

00:29:52 ◼   ► only sold one phone size.

00:29:53 ◼   ► And Samsung went out there and sold a bunch

00:29:57 ◼   ► of different ones and found out that bigger phones

00:29:59 ◼   ► had appeal.

00:30:01 ◼   ► And the power in that, as much as Samsung's approach

00:30:04 ◼   ► is not Apple's approach, the power in that is that

00:30:06 ◼   ► they got to, they didn't just theorize

00:30:09 ◼   ► about what people wanted.

00:30:11 ◼   ► And I know that people, especially in Apple spheres,

00:30:13 ◼   ► talk about the whole faster horse thing.

00:30:15 ◼   ► The truth is, as much advantage as Apple gains, I think,

00:30:19 ◼   ► in making judgments itself

00:30:22 ◼   ► instead of a focus group testing everything, right?

00:30:26 ◼   ► Like I think there's benefit in that,

00:30:28 ◼   ► in having confidence in your own vision.

00:30:30 ◼   ► It's not, you know,

00:30:32 ◼   ► it's not the same as putting a product in the market

00:30:34 ◼   ► and seeing what happens, right?

00:30:35 ◼   ► That is the ultimate test,

00:30:37 ◼   ► is actually releasing the product and seeing what happens.

00:30:41 ◼   ► And nobody knows, right?

00:30:43 ◼   ► Apple doesn't know, Samsung didn't know,

00:30:46 ◼   ► Samsung didn't know, right?

00:30:47 ◼   ► Samsung tried a bunch of stuff

00:30:48 ◼   ► And they learned that a big phone was a thing,

00:30:52 ◼   ► but it's not like Samsung said,

00:30:53 ◼   ► "We believe a large phone will sell,"

00:30:56 ◼   ► and released a big phone first thing,

00:30:58 ◼   ► and was like, "See, we were right."

00:30:59 ◼   ► That's not what they did.

00:31:00 ◼   ► They released a bunch of stuff, and then they learned.

00:31:02 ◼   ► And this may be one of those cases where like Apple,

00:31:05 ◼   ► you think Apple knows the iPhone market really well,

00:31:08 ◼   ► and of course they do.

00:31:09 ◼   ► They know lots of details about where these models sell,

00:31:12 ◼   ► and when they sell, and who's buying old models,

00:31:14 ◼   ► and who's buying new models,

00:31:15 ◼   ► and how it differs based on the geographic location.

00:31:19 ◼   ► They know all of that stuff, right?

00:31:20 ◼   ► But there are things that they can't know

00:31:24 ◼   ► unless they try it.

00:31:25 ◼   ► And if this is true, it's fascinating

00:31:29 ◼   ► 'cause it is Apple like doing,

00:31:31 ◼   ► it's like the scientific method happening

00:31:33 ◼   ► except with a two year delay

00:31:35 ◼   ► because of the way Apple does its product designs

00:31:38 ◼   ► where they're like, okay, let's do the mini phone.

00:31:40 ◼   ► Hmm, that didn't work.

00:31:42 ◼   ► Well, let's do a bigger phone.

00:31:43 ◼   ► Hmm, that didn't work.

00:31:44 ◼   ► And like, what's the lesson from that?

00:31:46 ◼   ► And again, I'm not sure they know,

00:31:48 ◼   ► but they can at least try to extrapolate,

00:31:51 ◼   ► try to intuit from the reaction of the consumer base,

00:31:56 ◼   ► of the audience, of the market, what's going on here.

00:32:00 ◼   ► And I guess we'll find out in two years

00:32:03 ◼   ► or maybe with a shift in their marketing strategy in a year.

00:32:08 ◼   ► - The expectation from these reports

00:32:11 ◼   ► is that Apple's considering two approaches for the iPhone 15.

00:32:15 ◼   ► One is to reduce the price of the 15 Plus.

00:32:19 ◼   ► I don't think that will do it.

00:32:21 ◼   ► Or to further differentiate the features of each model.

00:32:24 ◼   ► Now, you know, to actually make it like,

00:32:27 ◼   ► here are four phones and they have

00:32:30 ◼   ► like four different feature sets.

00:32:32 ◼   ► Now I would assume, I think, and be correct,

00:32:35 ◼   ► that the hardware is set for the 15 line.

00:32:38 ◼   ► So if they're gonna do that,

00:32:39 ◼   ► I expect it's some kind of marketing difference really that they would talk about.

00:32:43 ◼   ► But maybe I give it some software features or whatever as being the bigger phone.

00:32:47 ◼   ► I think that them splitting out the line more,

00:32:51 ◼   ► we're going to talk about the ultra in a minute,

00:32:53 ◼   ► the idea of an ultra in a minute, a little bit, uh, that could do something,

00:32:57 ◼   ► but I don't know what, right. Um,

00:32:59 ◼   ► if they continue to differentiate the line by pushing the most expensive phone

00:33:04 ◼   ► away from the pro phone, there could be something there. I don't know.

00:33:09 ◼   ► Maybe they'll just go iPhone, two Pros and then Ultra.

00:33:14 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:33:15 ◼   ► - Yeah, I had one thought about this that, I mean,

00:33:19 ◼   ► I'm sure this is an argument that everybody at Apple

00:33:21 ◼   ► had like three weeks ago, but I'll just throw it out there,

00:33:24 ◼   ► which is, I wonder if you could reduce complexity

00:33:27 ◼   ► by taking a page from the iPad and the MacBook

00:33:32 ◼   ► and saying, here is the iPhone 15.

00:33:38 ◼   ► it comes in two sizes.

00:33:39 ◼   ► Instead of having it be iPhone 15 and 15 Plus

00:33:44 ◼   ► and 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max or 15 Ultra, right?

00:33:47 ◼   ► Where there's like all, like they're different products.

00:33:50 ◼   ► I wonder if they might do better,

00:33:51 ◼   ► maybe it wouldn't make any difference,

00:33:53 ◼   ► but I wonder if they might do better

00:33:54 ◼   ► if they just said, here's the iPhone 15,

00:33:57 ◼   ► it comes in two sizes, which one do you prefer?

00:34:00 ◼   ► The more expensive one is, you know,

00:34:02 ◼   ► it's bigger and it's $50 more expensive or something.

00:34:05 ◼   ► Something, you know, maybe a little less

00:34:07 ◼   ► than the current spread between them.

00:34:10 ◼   ► Like just and keep it simple of like,

00:34:11 ◼   ► okay, great, we have two, which one do you want?

00:34:14 ◼   ► Would that work?

00:34:16 ◼   ► Would that help?

00:34:17 ◼   ► I'm not sure.

00:34:17 ◼   ► I mean, you're trying to do the best you can

00:34:19 ◼   ► with what you, if the hardware is already baked, right?

00:34:22 ◼   ► It's like, how do we, all you can really vary

00:34:24 ◼   ► is like how you sell it and how you price it.

00:34:26 ◼   ► But I've also had that thought,

00:34:28 ◼   ► which is in the long run,

00:34:30 ◼   ► would you be better off having an iPhone Ultra

00:34:32 ◼   ► and an iPhone Pro and an iPhone

00:34:34 ◼   ► and differentiating that way instead

00:34:37 ◼   ► and an iPhone SE or something and just keep it like we're not going to do two of each

00:34:41 ◼   ► iPhone anymore we're going to do three iPhones and let people choose.

00:34:47 ◼   ► And the successor to the iPhone 14 Pro Max which we're calling iPhone 15 Ultra for the

00:34:52 ◼   ► time being is now expected to not be wholly assembled at Foxconn.

00:34:58 ◼   ► Taiwanese research firm Trend Force is reporting that LuxShare will be taking on some of the

00:35:02 ◼   ► work for this product.

00:35:05 ◼   ► Luxier is also a Chinese manufacturer, so this isn't them differentiating their locations,

00:35:11 ◼   ► the geographical thing we've spoken about before, but more potentially to differentiate

00:35:16 ◼   ► from Foxconn because Foxconn has had its own set of specific problems in 2022 with

00:35:22 ◼   ► upset workers and rioting and pay issues and all that kind of stuff.

00:35:27 ◼   ► So this is a split, but it's not the split maybe that we were looking for.

00:35:32 ◼   ► Luxier has been key for Apple.

00:35:34 ◼   ► They do the AirPods manufacturing.

00:35:36 ◼   ► They've done some, they dabbled in some iPhone stuff as well

00:35:40 ◼   ► but AirPods is what they are mostly used for.

00:35:43 ◼   ► So this is at least them continuing to like spread a bit.

00:35:48 ◼   ► It is wild that they have so many eggs

00:35:50 ◼   ► in just this one big basket.

00:35:52 ◼   ► So I guess this is just an example

00:35:53 ◼   ► of them spreading that out a bit more.

00:35:56 ◼   ► - Yeah, interesting.

00:35:57 ◼   ► - So it's moving on a little bit.

00:36:01 ◼   ► It's now 2023, as we mentioned.

00:36:03 ◼   ► And so, as promised, the Dark Sky app is gone.

00:36:08 ◼   ► - It's gotten real dark now.

00:36:09 ◼   ► - Yeah, it's very dark.

00:36:10 ◼   ► It's the darkest. - The darkest.

00:36:11 ◼   ► - Is it darker or has the dark sky gone away

00:36:14 ◼   ► so now it's light?

00:36:15 ◼   ► - Well, it is always darkest before the dawn.

00:36:17 ◼   ► - Interesting, so we're in the dawn.

00:36:19 ◼   ► It's dawn sky now.

00:36:21 ◼   ► Anyway, Apple bought Dark Sky.

00:36:22 ◼   ► - Red sky at morning, sailors take warning.

00:36:25 ◼   ► - Okay.

00:36:26 ◼   ► Is that how it is?

00:36:28 ◼   ► 'Cause I know it's like red sky night sailors delight.

00:36:31 ◼   ► Red Sky at morning, sailors take a warning.

00:36:34 ◼   ► - Isn't it shepherds?

00:36:35 ◼   ► - I mean, maybe in England, do you not have sailors?

00:36:38 ◼   ► You have sailors in England?

00:36:40 ◼   ► Sailors here.

00:36:41 ◼   ► Very sail oriented. - Anyway,

00:36:43 ◼   ► Dark Sky was bought by Apple a couple of years ago

00:36:47 ◼   ► and they promised to keep the app and the API running

00:36:51 ◼   ► for a period of time.

00:36:52 ◼   ► - Yeah, until the far future of 2023.

00:36:55 ◼   ► - And it's now here.

00:36:56 ◼   ► So the app is now gone.

00:36:58 ◼   ► It was like January 1st, gone.

00:37:00 ◼   ► The API is set to be closed in March.

00:37:04 ◼   ► I use and have used the Dark Sky API source option,

00:37:09 ◼   ► I guess, in cara weather for a long time.

00:37:12 ◼   ► And so now I'm wondering what to move to instead.

00:37:17 ◼   ► The reason I have used Dark Sky is because

00:37:20 ◼   ► I find it to be very reliable with weather in general,

00:37:23 ◼   ► but of course the rain notifications

00:37:26 ◼   ► and forecasting is the key for Dark Sky.

00:37:29 ◼   ► and it's always been great for me here.

00:37:31 ◼   ► And it's helpful in a few months of the year.

00:37:34 ◼   ► It doesn't rain 12 months of the year in the UK,

00:37:37 ◼   ► people think it does, it doesn't,

00:37:39 ◼   ► but it does rain a lot during a period of time.

00:37:42 ◼   ► So dark skies have always been important to me,

00:37:46 ◼   ► and I'm wondering if maybe should I just move

00:37:48 ◼   ► to Apple weather now as a thing?

00:37:51 ◼   ► I mean, I would expect they would be able

00:37:54 ◼   ► to do a decent enough job.

00:37:56 ◼   ► today changed my source in Carrot weather in one app and left it in Dark

00:38:01 ◼   ► Sky for the other and the forecasts were completely different. So for example Dark

00:38:08 ◼   ► Sky today said the feels like temperature of six degrees Celsius Apple

00:38:12 ◼   ► weather said five degrees. Well it can't be today right it was like yesterday or

00:38:16 ◼   ► two days ago. No this is today I looked today. Dark Sky API March.

00:38:22 ◼   ► - Oh, API, okay. - Yeah.

00:38:24 ◼   ► Precipitation in Dark Sky was 19% chance

00:38:29 ◼   ► and in Apple Weather was 0% chance.

00:38:32 ◼   ► - Here's a theory I have.

00:38:33 ◼   ► So Dark Sky is aggregating weather data

00:38:35 ◼   ► from different sources.

00:38:36 ◼   ► And so now so is Apple Weather.

00:38:38 ◼   ► They don't have their own like, bureau.

00:38:41 ◼   ► And I wonder if they, in the move to Apple Weather,

00:38:46 ◼   ► if they have continued to update and change

00:38:48 ◼   ► their data sources and their model,

00:38:51 ◼   ► than if they parked the Dark Sky API a while ago

00:38:54 ◼   ► and haven't made any changes to it.

00:38:56 ◼   ► That's my guess, just-

00:38:58 ◼   ► - So maybe this is better is what you're saying.

00:39:00 ◼   ► - Based on the fact that, well, it's certainly different.

00:39:02 ◼   ► Based on the fact that you're seeing different data,

00:39:03 ◼   ► they're obviously not identical,

00:39:06 ◼   ► but I do wonder if, like, right, wouldn't that make sense

00:39:08 ◼   ► that like when they're moving from the Dark Sky,

00:39:10 ◼   ► the Dark Sky got bought by Apple,

00:39:12 ◼   ► so they're building out the next generation API,

00:39:14 ◼   ► which is gonna be Apple Weather,

00:39:16 ◼   ► that they would at some point just sort of like

00:39:17 ◼   ► leave Dark Sky where it is

00:39:19 ◼   ► and update the Apple weather thing.

00:39:22 ◼   ► So that might be part of it.

00:39:23 ◼   ► Lauren and I were talking about this

00:39:24 ◼   ► 'cause she was like, "No dark stuff going away."

00:39:27 ◼   ► And I get those precipitation alerts.

00:39:29 ◼   ► And I said, "Well, I get them in Apple weather."

00:39:32 ◼   ► So you can have precipitation alerts in Apple weather.

00:39:36 ◼   ► It's not the same.

00:39:37 ◼   ► If you want the same, you should use Carrot weather,

00:39:42 ◼   ► pay for Carrot weather.

00:39:44 ◼   ► And then as Brian Carrot was pointing out

00:39:48 ◼   ► on Twitter or Mastodon or somewhere,

00:39:50 ◼   ► there is a new thing, it was on Twitter.

00:39:53 ◼   ► So I'll just tell you about it now, Myke.

00:39:54 ◼   ► - Thank you.

00:39:55 ◼   ► - Brian Carrot, Brian Mueller,

00:39:58 ◼   ► but I call him Brian Carrot 'cause he makes carrot,

00:40:00 ◼   ► named it after himself, obviously.

00:40:01 ◼   ► They added a new layout in Carrot Weather called Inline

00:40:07 ◼   ► that basically is the dark sky layout.

00:40:09 ◼   ► - Oh, interesting.

00:40:11 ◼   ► - So if you want to use,

00:40:12 ◼   ► if you want an app that just looks like dark sky,

00:40:15 ◼   ► Carrot Weather can do that for you.

00:40:16 ◼   ► but the Apple weather app will do precipitation alerts.

00:40:19 ◼   ► So it's not necessarily a bad idea to get it right

00:40:24 ◼   ► and use it for that, but they may not be the same.

00:40:29 ◼   ► - I'm gonna use the Apple weather data source

00:40:32 ◼   ► in Carrot weather, that's my plan.

00:40:35 ◼   ► And I'm gonna, I like your theory

00:40:37 ◼   ► and I'm gonna choose to believe that,

00:40:39 ◼   ► that like the Apple weather is more reliable now.

00:40:43 ◼   ► The one thing I was thinking is like, I guess one of the things I can feel, hopefully feel

00:40:48 ◼   ► good that Apple weather is as close to correct as possible, which is they serve so many people

00:40:53 ◼   ► with that service with like the official weather app, they have to do a decent job or I would

00:40:59 ◼   ► be hearing about it kind of like maps, you know, like I was worried about the weather

00:41:03 ◼   ► app when they moved to their own service.

00:41:06 ◼   ► Like I was worried about an Apple maps situation.

00:41:10 ◼   ► Um, but that doesn't seem to have happened.

00:41:13 ◼   ► I don't feel like I've heard a lot of people being really upset about the

00:41:17 ◼   ► weather app in fact I feel like I've heard actually the opposite seem to

00:41:21 ◼   ► people seem to really like the i-16 weather app. I wanted to point out we'll

00:41:26 ◼   ► put a link in the show notes to an article on Slate mm-hmm called the

00:41:30 ◼   ► world's best terrible weather app that is perfectly named yes I hate the dark

00:41:35 ◼   ► sky app I'm I'm seeing I'm seeing people be surprised by what this article says

00:41:42 ◼   ► so I just, and I wasn't, but like, I want to state what it says, which is, how did Dark Sky work?

00:41:47 ◼   ► The answer is, Dark Sky looked at radar images and then tried to

00:41:53 ◼   ► intelligently plot, the radar images are like where the precipitation is,

00:41:57 ◼   ► intelligently plot where those would continue on to.

00:42:00 ◼   ► There, it was literally processing

00:42:04 ◼   ► the radar images in order to do kind of like, okay,

00:42:08 ◼   ► well, if this dot of rain is here now

00:42:10 ◼   ► and it's moving north-northwest,

00:42:12 ◼   ► then in the next frame it'll be here,

00:42:14 ◼   ► and in the next frame it'll be here.

00:42:16 ◼   ► Which on a very small scale actually works pretty well.

00:42:21 ◼   ► Which I disagree with this article that says,

00:42:23 ◼   ► oh, it's complete BS and it doesn't work at all.

00:42:26 ◼   ► I think in small scales, like that's how we use radar, right?

00:42:29 ◼   ► Is you look at the radar and you say,

00:42:31 ◼   ► oh, the rain's coming in and it's headed my way,

00:42:33 ◼   ► and now it's here and now it's gone.

00:42:34 ◼   ► - Dark Sky does a great job.

00:42:36 ◼   ► It does a great job, like, yeah.

00:42:37 ◼   ► So this article also quotes a lot of meteorologists

00:42:39 ◼   ► who are very cranky 'cause they're like,

00:42:40 ◼   ► "But we have models, you gotta use the models."

00:42:42 ◼   ► And the problem is your models don't say,

00:42:45 ◼   ► five minutes away, there's going to be rain, right?

00:42:50 ◼   ► And although dark sky is not always accurate,

00:42:53 ◼   ► I think that there's a bit of chauvinism here

00:42:56 ◼   ► where meteorologists are like,

00:42:59 ◼   ► these people aren't experts, trust us.

00:43:02 ◼   ► But the people who built dark sky

00:43:05 ◼   ► we're using radar the way people use radar,

00:43:08 ◼   ► which is to say, is that blob of rain

00:43:11 ◼   ► going to cross over where I am in the next hour?

00:43:14 ◼   ► Which to my understanding,

00:43:17 ◼   ► a fancy model of weather can't do,

00:43:22 ◼   ► or at least doesn't do,

00:43:24 ◼   ► because they're not updating every five minutes

00:43:27 ◼   ► with pinpoint locations of precipitation, right?

00:43:30 ◼   ► That's not what it's for.

00:43:31 ◼   ► It's a different kind of thing.

00:43:33 ◼   ► Anyway, I found that article fascinating

00:43:35 ◼   ► because the meteorologists hate dark sky.

00:43:38 ◼   ► And I, although this article, I feel like is extremely

00:43:42 ◼   ► against dark sky and misses some important points

00:43:46 ◼   ► about why it actually did make sense,

00:43:48 ◼   ► I think it's also fair to point out that yes,

00:43:51 ◼   ► dark sky's methodology could be shaky

00:43:54 ◼   ► because dark sky's methodology was based on analyzing

00:43:56 ◼   ► tracks of precipitation in radar.

00:44:00 ◼   ► And that doesn't always work, right?

00:44:02 ◼   ► Because there are certain, I'll tell you,

00:44:04 ◼   ► For California, and isn't this typical,

00:44:07 ◼   ► 'cause everything works in California,

00:44:09 ◼   ► for California it worked pretty well

00:44:10 ◼   ► because we don't have thunderstorms

00:44:13 ◼   ► that pop out of nowhere.

00:44:15 ◼   ► We have waves of rain that just come in.

00:44:18 ◼   ► - It works great in London too, right?

00:44:20 ◼   ► Like it's worked fantastically for me in London.

00:44:23 ◼   ► You know, to the point where it would say

00:44:24 ◼   ► rain's stopping in five minutes and it would.

00:44:26 ◼   ► You know, it was perfect.

00:44:29 ◼   ► And so, yeah, now I'm moving to Apple Weather.

00:44:31 ◼   ► I do note now that I get a 10-day forecast

00:44:33 ◼   ► drive it at a seven day forecast, so that's nice.

00:44:36 ◼   ► - It's nice, that's good.

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00:46:47 ◼   ► Jason, you wrote a couple of prediction articles for Macworld, and I wanted to run through

00:46:57 ◼   ► what the categories and the products and what you think is going to happen for Apple in

00:47:02 ◼   ► 2023.

00:47:04 ◼   ► Should we get started and look at the Mac?

00:47:06 ◼   ► Sure.

00:47:07 ◼   ► Now I need to remember what I predicted, but I'm sure I was right.

00:47:12 ◼   ► Okay.

00:47:14 ◼   ► Sure.

00:47:15 ◼   ► - Sure.

00:47:16 ◼   ► - So looking at the Mac,

00:47:18 ◼   ► you are expecting MacBook Pro updates

00:47:21 ◼   ► and Mac mini updates to get the M2 chips, right?

00:47:25 ◼   ► - Yeah, I mean, this is basically us taking, you know,

00:47:27 ◼   ► or me taking the rumor roundup that we do here

00:47:30 ◼   ► and trying to kind of like put it out there as, you know,

00:47:33 ◼   ► what are the details and what's gonna come through

00:47:35 ◼   ► and what's not gonna come through.

00:47:36 ◼   ► And I, you know, M2 beyond the base M2 processor,

00:47:41 ◼   ► this is the year for that, obviously.

00:47:43 ◼   ► And so I do think it'll be, you know,

00:47:45 ◼   ► the revision to the MacBook Pro that we've been expecting.

00:47:48 ◼   ► And I do think they're going to do the Mac mini revision as well,

00:47:51 ◼   ► where they're going to get that Intel Mac mini out of there at last. Yeah.

00:47:55 ◼   ► It's time.

00:47:57 ◼   ► So if we imagine all that stuff, that's the boring stuff.

00:48:00 ◼   ► Let's talk about the more exciting stuff. Okay.

00:48:03 ◼   ► So I'm going to give a rundown of the things that you've predicted, right?

00:48:06 ◼   ► So in the boring stuff, we'll include an update to the 24 inch iMac.

00:48:12 ◼   ► the exciting stuff is.

00:48:13 ◼   ► - Actually, I'm gonna just say that's risky, right?

00:48:17 ◼   ► Mark Gurman is skeptical about the 24-inch iMac

00:48:19 ◼   ► getting an update and keeps saying

00:48:20 ◼   ► that it's not gonna be updated until in M3,

00:48:22 ◼   ► which I don't believe, I just don't believe it.

00:48:24 ◼   ► I know that he's got-- - But M3 could still be

00:48:26 ◼   ► in 2023.

00:48:27 ◼   ► - It could, it could be.

00:48:31 ◼   ► I, yeah, I wonder.

00:48:33 ◼   ► It could be though. - But they could sit on that.

00:48:34 ◼   ► But do you think they will do it this year?

00:48:36 ◼   ► You think they will do it?

00:48:37 ◼   ► - I predicted that they will, yeah.

00:48:39 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:48:40 ◼   ► So if we also, let's actually,

00:48:42 ◼   ► let's also lump in the Mac Pro in the boring part,

00:48:45 ◼   ► 'cause like we kinda know about it and are expecting it,

00:48:48 ◼   ► and Apple have effectively told us it's coming.

00:48:51 ◼   ► There's a few things that you were pretty,

00:48:54 ◼   ► you were pretty firm on that you think are gonna happen.

00:48:57 ◼   ► iMac Pro, larger MacBook Air,

00:49:00 ◼   ► and an updated studio display with micro LED and ProMotion.

00:49:04 ◼   ► - Yeah. - That's pretty bold.

00:49:05 ◼   ► There's some pretty bold predictions right there.

00:49:08 ◼   ► - I wanna believe.

00:49:09 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:49:11 ◼   ► I think the Mac Pro is gonna happen.

00:49:12 ◼   ► I don't know what form it'll take, right?

00:49:13 ◼   ► I mean, it's gonna be, the rumors are,

00:49:16 ◼   ► it's not gonna have that quad chip.

00:49:19 ◼   ► It's gonna just have an M2 Max basically,

00:49:23 ◼   ► or M2 Ultra, M2 Ultra, right?

00:49:26 ◼   ► But that's it.

00:49:27 ◼   ► Display, yeah, I'm gonna take my shot there

00:49:31 ◼   ► because I've, you know, I spent the last five years

00:49:34 ◼   ► predicting a standalone display from Apple

00:49:35 ◼   ► and in year five, I got it right.

00:49:37 ◼   ► So what do I do with that?

00:49:40 ◼   ► Start predicting the next one, I guess.

00:49:42 ◼   ► But I just, I keep feeling like there is gonna be,

00:49:46 ◼   ► the Pro Display XDR is now based on kind of old tech

00:49:49 ◼   ► that's been surpassed in Apple's product line

00:49:51 ◼   ► by the MacBook Pro.

00:49:53 ◼   ► It feels like there's room for something

00:49:55 ◼   ► above the studio display

00:49:57 ◼   ► that is not the current Pro Display XDR.

00:50:00 ◼   ► There is some suggestion that this is being worked on.

00:50:02 ◼   ► It's unclear when it's gonna come out,

00:50:03 ◼   ► but I feel like the year that the MacBook Pro come,

00:50:05 ◼   ► or the Mac Pro comes out would not be a bad time

00:50:08 ◼   ► for them to refresh that studio

00:50:11 ◼   ► or refresh the Pro Display XDR

00:50:13 ◼   ► or replace it with something different.

00:50:16 ◼   ► So this is kind of a catchall of,

00:50:18 ◼   ► I'm not sure whether they're gonna replace

00:50:20 ◼   ► the Pro Display XDR or whether they're just gonna do

00:50:22 ◼   ► a fancier 27-inch display that's XDR quality,

00:50:27 ◼   ► but I feel like they're gonna do something.

00:50:30 ◼   ► - And do you imagine that this display

00:50:33 ◼   ► would be the display that would also be in an iMac Pro?

00:50:37 ◼   ► - Oh, if it's a 27-inch ProMotion fancy display, then yes.

00:50:42 ◼   ► - And so that might be a thing that they wait and do.

00:50:48 ◼   ► Do you think they would do this together?

00:50:51 ◼   ► Or do you think they would split that apart?

00:50:53 ◼   ► - It's possible,

00:50:54 ◼   ► and that wasn't officially part of my prediction, right?

00:50:56 ◼   ► But I feel like that having that as a differentiator

00:50:59 ◼   ► about a true iMac Pro has the super fancy screen,

00:51:03 ◼   ► I could also see them not doing that, right?

00:51:06 ◼   ► I could also see them using the equivalent of the,

00:51:09 ◼   ► the thing about the studio display is it's the old 27 inch,

00:51:12 ◼   ► it's iMac display, right?

00:51:14 ◼   ► So if they're gonna do a new iMac Pro,

00:51:16 ◼   ► why would they not have it be truly Pro

00:51:19 ◼   ► if they're gonna call it that especially,

00:51:21 ◼   ► and it's gonna be big and fancy?

00:51:24 ◼   ► Why would you not have the new display tech?

00:51:28 ◼   ► I don't know about the sequence there.

00:51:30 ◼   ► I'm not sure that it matters.

00:51:31 ◼   ► I don't think there's any reason,

00:51:33 ◼   ► if you've got a standalone display ready to go,

00:51:35 ◼   ► I'm not sure there's any reason to hold off

00:51:37 ◼   ► until the iMac Pro in order to launch it.

00:51:39 ◼   ► Like you could do one in front of the other

00:51:41 ◼   ► and I don't think it matters.

00:51:43 ◼   ► - I'm not sure if I'm as strong on iMac Pro now

00:51:48 ◼   ► as I was when the iMac came out.

00:51:50 ◼   ► I was like, as a product that they'll do.

00:51:52 ◼   ► The Mac Studio is the wrinkle

00:51:54 ◼   ► and it's not that I think that one replaces the other,

00:51:57 ◼   ► It's just how many Mac models do they want?

00:52:00 ◼   ► That's a lot of models.

00:52:04 ◼   ► - Yeah, I agree.

00:52:06 ◼   ► I just think it's very strange

00:52:07 ◼   ► that they sold a 27-inch iMac for years and years

00:52:09 ◼   ► and years and years, and now they don't.

00:52:11 ◼   ► - Yes, I agree with that.

00:52:12 ◼   ► - I think that they have to do that.

00:52:13 ◼   ► Now, maybe it's a 27-inch iMac and it's not an iMac Pro,

00:52:17 ◼   ► although again, in terms of modern Apple terminology,

00:52:21 ◼   ► calling it iMac Pro and making it more expensive

00:52:26 ◼   ► feels like more what modern Apple would do,

00:52:30 ◼   ► but who knows, right?

00:52:33 ◼   ► I mean, maybe they've decided that the best thing to do

00:52:34 ◼   ► is to use the existing screen technology

00:52:37 ◼   ► and make a larger iMac that's got an M2 Pro option

00:52:42 ◼   ► and it's just a bigger iMac or something like that, right?

00:52:44 ◼   ► And it's not that big a deal.

00:52:45 ◼   ► But if they decide, the real question is like,

00:52:47 ◼   ► if they're gonna do a bigger iMac,

00:52:49 ◼   ► how far up do they push that in terms of the cost

00:52:51 ◼   ► and in terms of the features?

00:52:53 ◼   ► But I feel like there's gotta be one.

00:52:55 ◼   ► And so I decided to put my stake in the ground

00:52:57 ◼   ► in these predictions and say,

00:52:58 ◼   ► that they will call it pro

00:53:00 ◼   ► and it will have the higher end processors.

00:53:03 ◼   ► Display wise, I think it's an open question, right?

00:53:05 ◼   ► 'Cause that might add so much cost to the product

00:53:08 ◼   ► that it's not worth it for them.

00:53:10 ◼   ► At the same time, I could see them really arguing like,

00:53:13 ◼   ► if you wanna do pro work, pro photography work or whatever,

00:53:16 ◼   ► the iMac Pro has got your back

00:53:18 ◼   ► because it's doing HDR, et cetera, et cetera.

00:53:20 ◼   ► - And while we're talking about screen size changes

00:53:24 ◼   ► increases you you you feel pretty confident about this larger MacBook Air

00:53:29 ◼   ► yeah I mean Mark Gurman has reported that that is I believe he's reported as

00:53:33 ◼   ► forthcoming and Ming-Chi Kuo has reported that it's forthcoming feels

00:53:37 ◼   ► right to me that they'll the 15-inch MacBook Air like they've got the new

00:53:42 ◼   ► MacBook Air design which is really nice a larger one of that fills that gap

00:53:46 ◼   ► between the $2,000 MacBook Pros and the existing MacBook Airs for people who

00:53:53 ◼   ► want a bigger display, right?

00:53:54 ◼   ► Because to get a bigger display,

00:53:55 ◼   ► I'd have to pay $2,000 and get all this other stuff,

00:53:59 ◼   ► the ports, the processors, the HDR display,

00:54:02 ◼   ► all really nice, but not everybody really wants that.

00:54:05 ◼   ► If all you want is a little bigger screen,

00:54:09 ◼   ► you're buying a lot of other stuff.

00:54:10 ◼   ► And so having a 15 inch air,

00:54:13 ◼   ► not only does that make sense in terms of,

00:54:16 ◼   ► I mean, the reports say that it's gonna happen

00:54:18 ◼   ► and it makes sense to me.

00:54:19 ◼   ► I think that it's a good fit.

00:54:21 ◼   ► - But hey, Jason,

00:54:22 ◼   ► what if people just buy the MacBook Air

00:54:23 ◼   ► because it's the cheapest one?

00:54:25 ◼   ► - I know, right?

00:54:26 ◼   ► - You just spoke about this.

00:54:27 ◼   ► - Just let's just, we'll wait two years

00:54:30 ◼   ► and find out what they do.

00:54:32 ◼   ► Yes, I think that it's a question.

00:54:34 ◼   ► I think it's a really good question.

00:54:36 ◼   ► My bet is that laptop dynamics

00:54:39 ◼   ► are different from phone dynamics,

00:54:40 ◼   ► but it's a really good question, right?

00:54:42 ◼   ► Like how many of these assumptions we've made

00:54:44 ◼   ► about Apple strategy are going to be upended

00:54:46 ◼   ► by Apple meeting the market and realizing

00:54:49 ◼   ► that that strategy doesn't extend further

00:54:52 ◼   ► than they've already extended it.

00:54:54 ◼   ► So that's possible, it's possible.

00:54:56 ◼   ► The reports suggest they're gonna try it.

00:54:58 ◼   ► It is, I think, something worth watching

00:55:01 ◼   ► 'cause maybe they do a 15-inch MacBook Air

00:55:03 ◼   ► and discover people don't want it.

00:55:06 ◼   ► Maybe they do discover that.

00:55:08 ◼   ► But I like the idea of having a bigger screen

00:55:10 ◼   ► that doesn't cost two grand.

00:55:12 ◼   ► - Speaking of 15-inch screens in new products,

00:55:15 ◼   ► let's jump over to the iPad.

00:55:17 ◼   ► You seem very, I think, wildly confident

00:55:22 ◼   ► that the iPad Pro will see no update this year.

00:55:26 ◼   ► There'll be significant, there'll be like,

00:55:28 ◼   ► no other significant updates for the iPad in general,

00:55:31 ◼   ► except for a 15 inch model that will either be called

00:55:35 ◼   ► the iPad Pro or the iPad Studio.

00:55:38 ◼   ► - Well, we should start by saying the iPad Air

00:55:39 ◼   ► is due for an update, so I'm sure there will be

00:55:41 ◼   ► an iPad Air update of some kind.

00:55:43 ◼   ► - It's not gonna be significant though, right?

00:55:45 ◼   ► If they do.

00:55:46 ◼   ► I can't imagine it being particularly significant.

00:55:48 ◼   ► No, I decided to go with this,

00:55:50 ◼   ► but again, there's no money at stake here, right?

00:55:52 ◼   ► I take no risks in making these predictions.

00:55:55 ◼   ► I just wanna be clear about that.

00:55:57 ◼   ► So my rationale here in picking this is first off,

00:56:01 ◼   ► there's nothing happening on the iPad otherwise,

00:56:03 ◼   ► which is really boring.

00:56:04 ◼   ► We saw what happened with the iPad Pro,

00:56:07 ◼   ► where it got an update that feels very much

00:56:08 ◼   ► like not the update Apple wanted to make,

00:56:11 ◼   ► but I don't think the chip cycle is going to work

00:56:13 ◼   ► or the product cycle is gonna work for them

00:56:15 ◼   ► to do another iMac Pro this fall.

00:56:18 ◼   ► I think it's gonna have to wait until next spring.

00:56:20 ◼   ► However, I'm reminded of when they did the initial iPad Pro

00:56:26 ◼   ► and it came in the 12.9 inch model only.

00:56:28 ◼   ► And it was out there in front.

00:56:30 ◼   ► And then later they did an 11 inch model,

00:56:33 ◼   ► well, actually they did a smaller model, 10.5,

00:56:37 ◼   ► and then later they updated it further.

00:56:40 ◼   ► - I think it may have started with 9.7 and then-

00:56:43 ◼   ► - Pardon, 9.7 and then, yeah. - 10.5?

00:56:44 ◼   ► Oh, no, that little one has grown, right?

00:56:47 ◼   ► So the precedent is they started with a big one.

00:56:50 ◼   ► And I thought like there's some rumbling

00:56:53 ◼   ► about them wanting to do a bigger iPad.

00:56:55 ◼   ► And I thought there is a scenario that kind of makes sense

00:56:59 ◼   ► where maybe even the design language

00:57:02 ◼   ► that they intended on being in the iPad Pro

00:57:05 ◼   ► for the M2 generation that seems to have not happened,

00:57:09 ◼   ► maybe it will be ready.

00:57:13 ◼   ► And the logical thing to do,

00:57:14 ◼   ► since it's not time to update the iPad Pros

00:57:17 ◼   ► that just came out,

00:57:19 ◼   ► but you could do a new model

00:57:21 ◼   ► that also uses that design language

00:57:23 ◼   ► that you could put out in the fall.

00:57:26 ◼   ► And it would lead the way

00:57:29 ◼   ► and then the other ones would come in the spring.

00:57:32 ◼   ► And so that was when I started thinking

00:57:34 ◼   ► that actually is a scenario that kind of might make sense

00:57:37 ◼   ► where you get something for the iPad.

00:57:39 ◼   ► And I like the idea of a big iPad,

00:57:41 ◼   ► maybe with a third generation Apple Pencil.

00:57:43 ◼   ► And so a bunch of new iPad tech,

00:57:46 ◼   ► and the first time we see it,

00:57:48 ◼   ► it's in this iPad with, and with new accessories, right?

00:57:51 ◼   ► And it's beyond the pencil.

00:57:53 ◼   ► And it's something we haven't seen before.

00:57:55 ◼   ► And then in the spring,

00:57:59 ◼   ► the rest of the iPad Pro line catches up.

00:58:01 ◼   ► I like that scenario.

00:58:03 ◼   ► So since there are no penalties for these predictions

00:58:07 ◼   ► and there's no money riding on it,

00:58:08 ◼   ► I decided I was gonna go with it.

00:58:10 ◼   ► And I am intrigued. Do you think that this is a...

00:58:14 ◼   ► So let's say Pro Studio, whatever. If it's the studio,

00:58:20 ◼   ► do you think that it is like positioned above the iPad Pro?

00:58:24 ◼   ► Like where is this sitting in line? Especially as you say,

00:58:27 ◼   ► you think it's going to get things that no other iPad has right now.

00:58:32 ◼   ► So where does that sit though? Like above?

00:58:35 ◼   ► Above.

00:58:37 ◼   ► And do you think it would always be above?

00:58:39 ◼   ► - I don't know.

00:58:41 ◼   ► I mean, what I hedge on is whether they call this

00:58:43 ◼   ► Pro or Studio.

00:58:45 ◼   ► - Well, either way, right, I guess it could sit above.

00:58:48 ◼   ► - Unless they're getting rid of the iPad Air, right?

00:58:50 ◼   ► I feel like either way, it's bigger than the iPad Pro

00:58:54 ◼   ► with more features.

00:58:56 ◼   ► So it's going to be more expensive

00:58:58 ◼   ► than the 12.9 inch iPad Pro, yes.

00:59:00 ◼   ► - I could imagine this product existing.

00:59:05 ◼   ► I'm not sure that 2023 is it.

00:59:09 ◼   ► but I would be very excited to see it.

00:59:13 ◼   ► - Well, as I just explained,

00:59:15 ◼   ► I think part of my motivation here

00:59:16 ◼   ► is that there's not a lot of iPad story happening.

00:59:19 ◼   ► And this would be a really interesting iPad story

00:59:22 ◼   ► without having to change the timing

00:59:25 ◼   ► of the rest of the product line

00:59:26 ◼   ► is to basically throw what will ultimately be

00:59:29 ◼   ► the next generation of design language

00:59:31 ◼   ► and features and accessories.

00:59:33 ◼   ► This one model comes out in late 23

00:59:37 ◼   ► ahead of the rest of the line kind of picking it up

00:59:42 ◼   ► starting in 24.

00:59:43 ◼   ► So that was the thought process.

00:59:45 ◼   ► If it felt like there was a normal iPad process

00:59:48 ◼   ► going on this year,

00:59:50 ◼   ► I might not have made this wild prediction,

00:59:52 ◼   ► but it feels real quiet, right?

00:59:55 ◼   ► Like almost too quiet.

00:59:57 ◼   ► - Here's what I'll say about iPadOS, Apple and iPadOS.

01:00:02 ◼   ► I think iPad Studio is maybe just a better brand

01:00:06 ◼   ► for the more expensive iPad than iPad Pro,

01:00:10 ◼   ► because I think Apple has decided or not decided

01:00:15 ◼   ► to really make iPad like Pro

01:00:18 ◼   ► in the ways that Pro users want it to be, right?

01:00:22 ◼   ► We spoke about this for years,

01:00:24 ◼   ► but what the iPad's really good at is creating stuff,

01:00:28 ◼   ► especially art, right?

01:00:29 ◼   ► Visual things.

01:00:31 ◼   ► Maybe Studio is just a better brand

01:00:33 ◼   ► for the more expensive iPad than Pro is.

01:00:36 ◼   ► I mean, maybe, but I don't know if I entirely agree.

01:00:40 ◼   ► I mean, I think what the iPad is great at is changing what it is based on how you use

01:00:45 ◼   ► it.

01:00:46 ◼   ► I'm not, I'm also not ready to give up on the idea that Apple needs to bring its pro

01:00:50 ◼   ► apps to the iPad.

01:00:52 ◼   ► That I do think that that needs to happen.

01:00:54 ◼   ► But it's true.

01:00:55 ◼   ► This is a self-inflicted wound.

01:00:56 ◼   ► If they had called it iPad studio all along…

01:00:58 ◼   ► But those pro apps are creative apps, right?

01:01:01 ◼   ► They're creative apps, so it would fit just as nicely.

01:01:05 ◼   ► Sure.

01:01:06 ◼   ► Video editing is a very different thing than drawing,

01:01:10 ◼   ► but both could benefit from a larger screen.

01:01:12 ◼   ► Also, you throw in the fact

01:01:13 ◼   ► that they've got external display support now,

01:01:15 ◼   ► which is kind of an interesting quirk.

01:01:18 ◼   ► I wonder if they might do a new keyboard trackpad case thing

01:01:22 ◼   ► that was, again, would point the way to the future

01:01:27 ◼   ► of that on the other models.

01:01:28 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:01:29 ◼   ► I mean, what Apple thinks of the iPad

01:01:31 ◼   ► is an interesting question.

01:01:33 ◼   ► And whether those pro apps,

01:01:35 ◼   ► I didn't predict that the pro apps would come, I think, right?

01:01:37 ◼   ► Like that, I mean, 'cause--

01:01:39 ◼   ► - Gotta give it up at some point.

01:01:40 ◼   ► - Who would do that, yeah.

01:01:42 ◼   ► - Here's one that genuinely surprised me.

01:01:44 ◼   ► You feel--

01:01:46 ◼   ► - Well, it wouldn't be a fun column

01:01:47 ◼   ► if I didn't surprise people, right?

01:01:48 ◼   ► - That's a good point, that's a good point.

01:01:50 ◼   ► - Gotta entertain people.

01:01:51 ◼   ► - You expect that the iPhone 15

01:01:54 ◼   ► will look a lot like the iPhone 14,

01:01:56 ◼   ► but will get the Dynamic Island.

01:01:58 ◼   ► You seem very confident on that.

01:02:00 ◼   ► - Yep, yep, I am not a believer in the theory

01:02:03 ◼   ► that the Dynamic Island is gonna be withheld

01:02:04 ◼   ► for a long time.

01:02:06 ◼   ► I'm a believer that the Dynamic Island

01:02:07 ◼   ► is too good a feature to keep away

01:02:09 ◼   ► from half of the iPhone product line.

01:02:11 ◼   ► - I can see it.

01:02:13 ◼   ► Like, I feel like I agree with you that it's gonna happen.

01:02:16 ◼   ► All the tech is there, right?

01:02:17 ◼   ► They use all the displays.

01:02:18 ◼   ► Like, in theory, you could do it.

01:02:20 ◼   ► It would just, whilst I would completely understand it,

01:02:24 ◼   ► I think it may also surprise me,

01:02:25 ◼   ► it's just the next year that they do it,

01:02:27 ◼   ► but, you know, maybe they just go for it, right?

01:02:31 ◼   ► - I think, I mean, this isn't high-tech stuff.

01:02:33 ◼   ► It is literally just a different cutout for the sensors.

01:02:37 ◼   ► - Yep.

01:02:39 ◼   ► - And I think Dynamic Island is too central.

01:02:41 ◼   ► Here's the thing, if Apple likes the Dynamic Island,

01:02:44 ◼   ► they need to make the effort to get it everywhere, right?

01:02:47 ◼   ► How you don't popularize an OS feature

01:02:51 ◼   ► is by withholding it from a large portion

01:02:53 ◼   ► of your product line.

01:02:54 ◼   ► What you want is you want that feature everywhere

01:02:57 ◼   ► so that all software supports it

01:02:58 ◼   ► and it becomes a key differentiator in your platform.

01:03:01 ◼   ► And you don't do that by withholding it from the iPhone 15

01:03:05 ◼   ► and keeping it only on the Pro.

01:03:07 ◼   ► So, and the cost is nothing essentially,

01:03:10 ◼   ► 'cause it's just changing your existing cutout.

01:03:13 ◼   ► And the benefit is that everybody can rely

01:03:18 ◼   ► on there being a dynamic island.

01:03:20 ◼   ► And yeah, what you're losing is the people

01:03:21 ◼   ► who only go to the Pro because of the dynamic island,

01:03:26 ◼   ► but there are plenty of other reasons to go to the Pro.

01:03:29 ◼   ► Dynamic island does not need to be a differentiator in the long run. So I think I think they'll end that differentiation

01:03:34 ◼   ► immediately

01:03:36 ◼   ► But there could be a cost this time

01:03:38 ◼   ► So we'll get to the iPhone 15 ultra in a moment away you think that might go but let's imagine

01:03:43 ◼   ► You know we can just say for the moment that's going to be the exciting one, right? Yeah, and if the iPhone

01:03:50 ◼   ► 15 gets the dynamic island you've mentioned you don't think much would happen to the iPhone 15 Pro

01:03:55 ◼   ► could that not be a risk to the iPhone 15 Pro

01:03:59 ◼   ► if that doesn't actually get much of a big jump

01:04:01 ◼   ► and then the ultra's really exciting,

01:04:03 ◼   ► the iPhone 15 gets the dynamic island,

01:04:06 ◼   ► does that not kind of make the iPhone 15 Pro

01:04:10 ◼   ► less attractive, which would be a risk

01:04:12 ◼   ► because it sells really well?

01:04:15 ◼   ► - I don't think so.

01:04:16 ◼   ► I think only marginally.

01:04:17 ◼   ► Like, I think the appeal of the Pro

01:04:20 ◼   ► is probably in the materials and it's in the cameras.

01:04:25 ◼   ► I don't think it's in the dynamic island.

01:04:26 ◼   ► I'm not, in the long run, I am not a believer

01:04:30 ◼   ► that there are gonna be large numbers of people

01:04:32 ◼   ► who would otherwise have bought a Pro

01:04:34 ◼   ► and the only reason, or otherwise would have bought

01:04:36 ◼   ► a non-Pro, but only reason they went to the Pro

01:04:38 ◼   ► is because of the dynamic island.

01:04:40 ◼   ► I don't think there's enough of them to offset

01:04:44 ◼   ► the desire that Apple should have to get the dynamic island

01:04:47 ◼   ► everywhere in iOS as soon as it can, because it's cool.

01:04:50 ◼   ► - What is your stake in the ground

01:04:52 ◼   ► for the features of the iPhone 15 Ultra?

01:04:56 ◼   ► - I'm gonna say something similar

01:04:59 ◼   ► to my wild iPad studio theory, which is,

01:05:02 ◼   ► I feel like the 15 Pro is going to stay looking similar

01:05:07 ◼   ► and not get the complete revamp

01:05:08 ◼   ► because they're gonna put all their effort into the Ultra,

01:05:10 ◼   ► very much the story of the Apple Watch.

01:05:13 ◼   ► So there'll be an iPhone 15 Ultra, it'll look different.

01:05:16 ◼   ► It'll have a new camera system.

01:05:18 ◼   ► It'll be like, kind of like the iPhone 10, right?

01:05:21 ◼   ► where it's like, this is not your old iPhone.

01:05:24 ◼   ► We're doing very different things here.

01:05:26 ◼   ► And this is the first place to get it.

01:05:28 ◼   ► Also has the advantage of like the rumors about them doing

01:05:31 ◼   ► the periscope camera and all of that.

01:05:33 ◼   ► The idea there is you might start that in a larger phone

01:05:37 ◼   ► because you need the space to do that sort of thing.

01:05:40 ◼   ► So yeah, that's the little narrative

01:05:42 ◼   ► that I've woven for myself is that the iPhone 15

01:05:47 ◼   ► and 15 Pro will progress along,

01:05:49 ◼   ► but the real big story will be the Ultra,

01:05:54 ◼   ► which will look different and have a bunch of features

01:05:57 ◼   ► that no other iPhone has.

01:05:58 ◼   ► - Do you think they might go to titanium?

01:06:02 ◼   ► - Everything is on the table, right?

01:06:04 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:06:05 ◼   ► - There are nice things about titanium,

01:06:06 ◼   ► especially that it's light, right?

01:06:09 ◼   ► And the stainless is so heavy on those iPhone Pros.

01:06:12 ◼   ► They're so heavy.

01:06:14 ◼   ► So sure, that's a possibility.

01:06:17 ◼   ► - I guess it depends on if they can color it.

01:06:19 ◼   ► I think that would be an important element, right?

01:06:22 ◼   ► I think it would be difficult if it only came in one color.

01:06:26 ◼   ► Do you think?

01:06:27 ◼   ► - Remember, if the Ultra, well, I mean, they could color,

01:06:30 ◼   ► they could color the glass though.

01:06:32 ◼   ► - Yeah.

01:06:33 ◼   ► - And not the metal, right?

01:06:36 ◼   ► And keep in mind, this Ultra,

01:06:39 ◼   ► the Pro already is almost colorless.

01:06:41 ◼   ► So the Ultra could be completely colorless.

01:06:43 ◼   ► Just a silver black phone.

01:06:45 ◼   ► The iPhone 10, right, was just one color, I think.

01:06:49 ◼   ► It was all silver.

01:06:50 ◼   ► They made that work.

01:06:53 ◼   ► - Yeah, so this is the question,

01:06:55 ◼   ► but I'm kind of liking the idea that they're gonna,

01:06:59 ◼   ► again, they'll change the colors.

01:07:01 ◼   ► They might change the look a little bit

01:07:03 ◼   ► of the 15 and the 15 Pro.

01:07:05 ◼   ► They could always change the metal finish

01:07:07 ◼   ► and all of that to make them look a little bit different.

01:07:10 ◼   ► But I think that my theory here is that what if the Ultra

01:07:14 ◼   ► is where they put their resources this time.

01:07:17 ◼   ► And as with my big iPad theory,

01:07:20 ◼   ► the rest of the line catches up later.

01:07:22 ◼   ► - Emmer is correct.

01:07:23 ◼   ► I mean, the Discord, the iPhone 10

01:07:25 ◼   ► had two different colors for the rails.

01:07:27 ◼   ► - Right, but there's two different titanium shades on--

01:07:32 ◼   ► - The Apple watches. - Apple watch.

01:07:33 ◼   ► So you could do something like that.

01:07:36 ◼   ► It's very much that we offer two color choices.

01:07:38 ◼   ► There's dark gray and black.

01:07:40 ◼   ► Like, thanks Apple.

01:07:41 ◼   ► That's exactly what we expected from you.

01:07:44 ◼   ► This is the thing I'm most excited for right now for this year is the iPhone 15 Ultra,

01:07:49 ◼   ► what that might be.

01:07:51 ◼   ► I think it could be really exciting, right?

01:07:53 ◼   ► It has a new design, new designs are always fun, and this new potential new camera system

01:07:58 ◼   ► which could be leaps and bounds different.

01:08:02 ◼   ► I'm excited about what they might do with that product.

01:08:07 ◼   ► I think that's maybe the product that feels the most tangible to me and so I'm pretty

01:08:11 ◼   ► excited about it.

01:08:13 ◼   ► of the intangible ones I think we'll get to in a little bit but the iPhone 15 Ultra I'm

01:08:19 ◼   ► really keen to see what that might end up looking like. In wearables you are speaking

01:08:26 ◼   ► straight to my heart and predicting a completely redesigned AirPods Max.

01:08:31 ◼   ► Yep it's time right like that products been out there for a while but 1.0 product was

01:08:37 ◼   ► is disappointing in a bunch of ways

01:08:39 ◼   ► and needs to be revised, right?

01:08:42 ◼   ► It needs a better case.

01:08:44 ◼   ► It needs, you know, like there are some design aspects of it

01:08:47 ◼   ► that need to be better.

01:08:48 ◼   ► It's time to take it, what they've learned

01:08:50 ◼   ► from the first couple of years of that product

01:08:53 ◼   ► and revise it to be a little bit better fit.

01:08:56 ◼   ► And it may even be to be less expensive to make,

01:09:00 ◼   ► even regardless of what they do with the price,

01:09:02 ◼   ► 'cause they will have learned a lot,

01:09:03 ◼   ► I assume over the last couple of years

01:09:05 ◼   ► about what AirPods Max should be,

01:09:07 ◼   ► but it feels like it's time, right,

01:09:09 ◼   ► for a new version of that?

01:09:10 ◼   ► - Well, I mean, I agree, I want it.

01:09:12 ◼   ► I think the fundamentals of the product is good,

01:09:14 ◼   ► it sounds great, the noise cancellation is great,

01:09:16 ◼   ► like it's good, but they messed it up in a couple of ways.

01:09:20 ◼   ► Too heavy, too expensive, and not portable enough.

01:09:25 ◼   ► You know, the case is terrible,

01:09:27 ◼   ► the fact you can't collapse it.

01:09:29 ◼   ► I think they should look to,

01:09:32 ◼   ► and I hope they will fix those three issues,

01:09:34 ◼   ► and they will have, I think, a much bigger success on their hands with an AirPods Max

01:09:40 ◼   ► 2.

01:09:41 ◼   ► And I really hope that this is something that they're working on because I like this product

01:09:45 ◼   ► in their lineup.

01:09:47 ◼   ► I don't use my AirPods Max a lot, but when I do use them, I really want that product

01:09:53 ◼   ► to do the best it can do, like traveling and stuff like that.

01:09:56 ◼   ► I want the best it can be, and that is the best that AirPods can be for me in those environments.

01:10:02 ◼   ► Although I will say AirPods Pro 2 is unbelievable how good the noise cancellation is right as

01:10:07 ◼   ► we mentioned in the Upgrades episode.

01:10:10 ◼   ► You know I tested that out on the last plane trip that I took and was really surprised

01:10:15 ◼   ► at comparatively how well they do.

01:10:18 ◼   ► But I would love to see them take everything they've learned on AirPods Pro 2 and apply

01:10:23 ◼   ► that to AirPods Max 2 plus difference in the hardware.

01:10:29 ◼   ► predict the action button is gonna come to the regular Apple Watch? Well what's

01:10:34 ◼   ► left to do with the Apple Watch right? Like the Apple Watch is largely a...

01:10:37 ◼   ► Finally a redesigned Jason that's what they can do. I don't think I mean I'm not gonna

01:10:42 ◼   ► predict it I feel like they're gonna ride this a little longer I'm not gonna

01:10:47 ◼   ► predict that thing it'll happen eventually and I'll be surprised by it

01:10:50 ◼   ► when it happens because I feel like they're gonna keep riding this horse I

01:10:53 ◼   ► think another thing they could do is I mean maybe it'll be tweaked design wise

01:10:58 ◼   ► I'm gonna repeat what I've been saying all along,

01:11:02 ◼   ► which is the high-end products lead the way

01:11:05 ◼   ► in a lot of cases for the rest of the line.

01:11:07 ◼   ► And so in this case, again, look to the Apple Watch Ultra

01:11:11 ◼   ► and say, "Oh, it's got that action button."

01:11:13 ◼   ► We could add an action button to the existing Apple Watch.

01:11:16 ◼   ► We could maybe change the look of it

01:11:18 ◼   ► and have it have a little bit more ultra-like look

01:11:22 ◼   ► without it really being a radical reinvention

01:11:26 ◼   ► of the Apple Watch.

01:11:27 ◼   ► that's my guess is that the regular Apple watch will pick up some features

01:11:31 ◼   ► from the ultra you didn't mention anything about the ultra itself do you

01:11:36 ◼   ► think they'll update the ultra this year if they do it won't be interesting huh

01:11:43 ◼   ► yeah yep that's my prediction and quote some quote but like I something new in

01:11:52 ◼   ► the home something give me something anything a device show me a sign of life

01:11:56 ◼   ► - Right, because I don't know which one,

01:11:57 ◼   ► like there was a whole bunch of different rumors out there

01:11:59 ◼   ► of things that they've been experimenting with.

01:12:02 ◼   ► Will any of them come to fruition?

01:12:03 ◼   ► But I decided like, there's gotta be something, right?

01:12:06 ◼   ► I'm willing to bet, at least for now,

01:12:09 ◼   ► that one of the holdups in Apple's home strategy

01:12:11 ◼   ► is that they need to get into the thread world.

01:12:14 ◼   ► That once the thread thing is working,

01:12:16 ◼   ► they can just release the hounds, right?

01:12:19 ◼   ► They can open the flood gates and out pour all the Apple,

01:12:22 ◼   ► Like one, just one HomePod with a screen for FaceTime

01:12:27 ◼   ► or a soundbar, Apple TV, HomePod combo or something, right?

01:12:34 ◼   ► Like something to show us that you care about the home

01:12:39 ◼   ► in some way, that's all I'm really asking.

01:12:42 ◼   ► - And I'd mentioned an intangible thing,

01:12:45 ◼   ► which is the headset, right?

01:12:48 ◼   ► It's like we have an idea of what it might be,

01:12:51 ◼   ► we pretty much feel like we know it's coming this year,

01:12:55 ◼   ► it feels very confident,

01:12:56 ◼   ► but it's like the Apple Watch,

01:12:59 ◼   ► and when the Apple Watch is introduced,

01:13:02 ◼   ► there are a lot of things this product could be,

01:13:05 ◼   ► what mix do they end up landing on, right?

01:13:10 ◼   ► When they release it.

01:13:11 ◼   ► - And this seems like a real easy prediction,

01:13:13 ◼   ► except that I will say,

01:13:15 ◼   ► after I wrote this article a couple weeks later,

01:13:18 ◼   ► I saw a prediction piece that said

01:13:20 ◼   ► Apple won't release the headset this year.

01:13:22 ◼   ► And I like, I get the argument, I forget who made it,

01:13:27 ◼   ► but I forget whoever it was, the argument was,

01:13:32 ◼   ► it sure feels like a developer release.

01:13:34 ◼   ► It sure feels overpriced and overpowered.

01:13:37 ◼   ► Maybe where they will end up is shipping something

01:13:40 ◼   ► as a developer preview, not,

01:13:42 ◼   ► it doesn't sound like Apple to sell that product

01:13:44 ◼   ► to mainstream consumers.

01:13:46 ◼   ► And we've been saying that all along, right?

01:13:48 ◼   ► And yet it seems like that's their intent,

01:13:51 ◼   ► is to sell a 2000 plus dollar headset

01:13:54 ◼   ► that is the best you could possibly buy,

01:13:57 ◼   ► but not something that a lot of regular people

01:13:59 ◼   ► are gonna buy.

01:14:00 ◼   ► And yet somehow with that very expensive product,

01:14:02 ◼   ► evangelize developers to devote time to develop apps

01:14:06 ◼   ► for a thing that is probably not gonna sell that well,

01:14:08 ◼   ► because it's so expensive.

01:14:10 ◼   ► It doesn't really make sense.

01:14:11 ◼   ► And yet all the indications are that they are doing that.

01:14:17 ◼   ► So my prediction is that I think they are,

01:14:20 ◼   ► although I think it's possible that this will change,

01:14:23 ◼   ► my prediction is that they will ship it,

01:14:26 ◼   ► but what they're gonna do is they're going to announce it

01:14:29 ◼   ► in the spring, they're going to evangelize its development

01:14:32 ◼   ► at WWDC and possibly give developers some access

01:14:37 ◼   ► to something that they can develop on.

01:14:39 ◼   ► It will ship later in the summer.

01:14:42 ◼   ► And my other prediction that's just out of the blue,

01:14:45 ◼   ► but I'm going to throw it in there,

01:14:47 ◼   ► which is I think they're gonna get it under 2000,

01:14:50 ◼   ► despite all the reports that it's gonna be more than $2,000.

01:14:53 ◼   ► I think the solution to the,

01:14:55 ◼   ► how do they ship this product when it's too expensive

01:14:58 ◼   ► and nobody will buy it?

01:15:00 ◼   ► I gotta be honest, I think the solution is gonna be

01:15:03 ◼   ► that they're gonna eat it.

01:15:05 ◼   ► They're gonna eat the margins.

01:15:06 ◼   ► - They should.

01:15:07 ◼   ► They should, if they care about it.

01:15:09 ◼   ► - That's right, and they think this is a long-term play

01:15:11 ◼   ► for them, they're gonna have to forego

01:15:13 ◼   ► their traditional profit margins

01:15:16 ◼   ► in order to hit that price point

01:15:17 ◼   ► and they're not gonna like it,

01:15:18 ◼   ► but I think that may be their only way out here.

01:15:20 ◼   ► Unless they really do pull a bunch of features off of it

01:15:24 ◼   ► and we get those reports over the next few months

01:15:26 ◼   ► that they've like, they've de-contented this thing down

01:15:29 ◼   ► to a lower price.

01:15:30 ◼   ► - Such a bad idea.

01:15:32 ◼   ► Like they gotta eat it.

01:15:33 ◼   ► They gotta do what the games consoles do.

01:15:36 ◼   ► You gotta just eat it and you'll make the money later.

01:15:40 ◼   ► - You're gonna make a great product.

01:15:42 ◼   ► You wanna evangelize developers.

01:15:44 ◼   ► You believe this is your future, you know what you do.

01:15:47 ◼   ► I'm not even saying to sell it at a loss,

01:15:50 ◼   ► but I'm saying sell it at very little profit

01:15:53 ◼   ► in order to get that price to somewhere

01:15:54 ◼   ► where you think that it's actually gonna sell.

01:15:56 ◼   ► Because step one here is not reap enormous profits

01:15:59 ◼   ► from incredibly profitable high margin device, right?

01:16:04 ◼   ► Step one is sell a lot of them.

01:16:06 ◼   ► That's the truth of it, sell a lot of them.

01:16:08 ◼   ► Doesn't have to be a $300 headset, I'm not saying that,

01:16:11 ◼   ► but I'm saying if you can sell it for 2,500

01:16:14 ◼   ► and make a very comfortable margin,

01:16:16 ◼   ► or you can sell it for 1800

01:16:17 ◼   ► and make almost nothing on the hardware,

01:16:21 ◼   ► I think the move is to make almost nothing on the hardware

01:16:23 ◼   ► because the goal here is long-term, not short-term.

01:16:26 ◼   ► And you need developers.

01:16:28 ◼   ► The piece that is so important here is

01:16:32 ◼   ► this is gonna take developer support.

01:16:35 ◼   ► It really is.

01:16:36 ◼   ► And developers, especially given how Apple has treated

01:16:39 ◼   ► its developers the last few years,

01:16:42 ◼   ► I would say developers aren't gonna invest a lot of time

01:16:45 ◼   ► into your platform, your brand new,

01:16:48 ◼   ► apparently very important strategically platform,

01:16:51 ◼   ► if they're developing it for an audience of no one, right?

01:16:55 ◼   ► You've got to give them an audience.

01:16:57 ◼   ► And saying, invest now and in two or three years, right?

01:17:02 ◼   ► You'll start making money on our platform.

01:17:04 ◼   ► It's not gonna work.

01:17:05 ◼   ► It's not gonna work.

01:17:06 ◼   ► It'll work for some like people who are really hardcore

01:17:10 ◼   ► Apple indie developers and they just love

01:17:12 ◼   ► doing stuff for Apple, okay, but like you need to build this platform you really

01:17:16 ◼   ► need people to rush into it and want to support it and the only way you can

01:17:20 ◼   ► really do that is by selling units. You got to sell units.

01:17:24 ◼   ► I'm really hoping that this product has an almost original iPad like price

01:17:33 ◼   ► surprise. Remember like everyone was like it's gonna cost over a thousand dollars

01:17:38 ◼   ► there's just no way and then bang 500 and it was like whoa you know that I

01:17:43 ◼   ► really hope that they find some way to make that work because that would be

01:17:48 ◼   ► cool and then thinking about this column that's essentially what I where I came

01:17:52 ◼   ► to is I don't see how this works based on what we've read in the reports and so

01:17:59 ◼   ► that makes me feel like they're that that that pricing can't stand right that

01:18:05 ◼   ► That's the piece here where it's like, yeah, but how do you come out with a $2,000, $2,500 thing?

01:18:11 ◼   ► And pricing, like, people are reporting the pricing, but it's like, those are people in

01:18:16 ◼   ► the supply chain, those are people, like, those are sources inside Apple, but like,

01:18:20 ◼   ► as we've said many times here, pricing and marketing is the most changeable of anything,

01:18:26 ◼   ► right? All it takes is Tim Cook saying, "What does it cost to make one of these?

01:18:32 ◼   ► let's price it at 1,500.

01:18:34 ◼   ► But sir, it costs 1,400 to make it.

01:18:36 ◼   ► It's like, yeah, but we gotta do it.

01:18:39 ◼   ► We gotta do it, 'cause we gotta look

01:18:40 ◼   ► at the competition out there.

01:18:41 ◼   ► I think something, I saw a story the other week

01:18:45 ◼   ► about how many more meta quests were sold

01:18:50 ◼   ► this Christmas season, which would be the third

01:18:52 ◼   ► Christmas season for the meta quest, two,

01:18:55 ◼   ► which is remarkable on one level, right?

01:18:58 ◼   ► Because it's like, that's an old product.

01:19:00 ◼   ► But on another level, it's still a really

01:19:03 ◼   ► well-priced product.

01:19:05 ◼   ► And I keep looking at it, you know, I have one,

01:19:09 ◼   ► and I like it.

01:19:10 ◼   ► And I keep looking at it and thinking,

01:19:12 ◼   ► you know, the advantage the MetaQuest has

01:19:14 ◼   ► is that they've sold a bunch of them.

01:19:16 ◼   ► Like, you can actually write software for the MetaQuest

01:19:20 ◼   ► and feel like it's successful.

01:19:23 ◼   ► - Yeah, you can have a success with it, yeah.

01:19:25 ◼   ► - And you gotta, like, you can't,

01:19:28 ◼   ► you can't build a superior product

01:19:30 ◼   ► that nobody writes software for, right?

01:19:31 ◼   ► There are so many examples of that throughout history.

01:19:34 ◼   ► So that's what I kept coming back to in my column

01:19:38 ◼   ► as I was writing it is,

01:19:39 ◼   ► and you and I have talked about it a bunch here

01:19:41 ◼   ► and I kept, my brain keeps processing like,

01:19:44 ◼   ► what's the story here?

01:19:45 ◼   ► The best I can come up with is that

01:19:47 ◼   ► they're gonna have to cave on price

01:19:48 ◼   ► and they're gonna have to take the hit

01:19:50 ◼   ► because this thing can't cost $2,500

01:19:52 ◼   ► 'cause they're not gonna sell any of them.

01:19:54 ◼   ► And the easiest thing for them to do, painful but easy,

01:19:58 ◼   ► is just sell it for a lot less

01:20:01 ◼   ► and try to kickstart this market.

01:20:03 ◼   ► It's either that or you call it a developer preview

01:20:07 ◼   ► and you only ship it to developers

01:20:09 ◼   ► and say the real one is coming in 2024.

01:20:13 ◼   ► And that would be, I think, a real declaration of failure,

01:20:17 ◼   ► but it's a fallback.

01:20:18 ◼   ► I think the easier thing to do is to just take the hit

01:20:21 ◼   ► on the hardware in order to build your platform.

01:20:25 ◼   ► - One of the worst things that could happen to the headset

01:20:27 ◼   ► is it's just like a bunch of ports of Quest games.

01:20:31 ◼   ► Like that's it.

01:20:31 ◼   ► - Yeah, on an incredibly expensive thing.

01:20:34 ◼   ► And a lackluster reception from the developer community.

01:20:38 ◼   ► 'Cause keep in mind, Apple's success in this last decade plus

01:20:42 ◼   ► has been, you know, one of the ways

01:20:46 ◼   ► that it's been successful is everybody wants to be

01:20:49 ◼   ► on the iPhone, especially, right?

01:20:51 ◼   ► everybody wants to be on that platform.

01:20:53 ◼   ► And that's helped make that platform a success.

01:20:56 ◼   ► And the danger is that Apple thinks that,

01:20:58 ◼   ► "No, no, no, no, people, we make it a success

01:21:01 ◼   ► and then they make money on the platform,

01:21:03 ◼   ► but that's not how it works.

01:21:04 ◼   ► You gotta have apps,

01:21:05 ◼   ► you gotta have software on the platform."

01:21:07 ◼   ► And the way you get developers to develop for your platform

01:21:10 ◼   ► is that people are there to buy their software.

01:21:11 ◼   ► So here we are.

01:21:14 ◼   ► We'll see what happens.

01:21:15 ◼   ► I mean, the good news is we can just check back in a year

01:21:18 ◼   ► and see how we did.

01:21:19 ◼   ► No matter how well you/I have done in this conversation today,

01:21:26 ◼   ► I think 2023 is going to be a year packed full of interesting stuff from Apple.

01:21:31 ◼   ► - I hope so. - I'm pretty excited about it.

01:21:32 ◼   ► - I hope so. - Just because there's so much possibility.

01:21:34 ◼   ► If they do 50% of it, it will be a big year.

01:21:38 ◼   ► Do you know I saw a stat, just before we move on real quick,

01:21:40 ◼   ► that I think I saw some Mac rumors today.

01:21:44 ◼   ► This past quarter is the first time in 20 years

01:21:47 ◼   ► and Apple haven't released a Mac,

01:21:49 ◼   ► like in this time period,

01:21:52 ◼   ► like in the fourth quarter of the year.

01:21:54 ◼   ► Right, isn't that wild?

01:21:57 ◼   ► - Interesting.

01:21:58 ◼   ► - 'Cause this is the time, right?

01:22:00 ◼   ► You would either do it for the holidays

01:22:01 ◼   ► or for back to school or whatever, and they didn't do it.

01:22:04 ◼   ► - Like I said, I feel like we've definitely gotten

01:22:07 ◼   ► to the point where pandemic-related

01:22:10 ◼   ► and supply chain-related issues have shoved

01:22:13 ◼   ► the Mac, whole Mac product line back by three, six,

01:22:18 ◼   ► nine months, something like that, for sure.

01:22:21 ◼   ► - Hopefully we're gonna get some of that backlog

01:22:25 ◼   ► coming out of it.

01:22:26 ◼   ► - Bring it on, bring on 2023, clear the backlog,

01:22:30 ◼   ► get us new stuff to talk about.

01:22:32 ◼   ► - This episode is brought to you by our friends

01:22:37 ◼   ► over at Fitbud.

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01:25:07 ◼   ► Let's move on to some Ask Upgrade questions.

01:25:10 ◼   ► The lasers still work!

01:25:12 ◼   ► They sure do.

01:25:13 ◼   ► They've dusted them off for the new year.

01:25:15 ◼   ► First comes from Shwert who asks "It's getting harder and harder to manage Mac apps.

01:25:20 ◼   ► Some come from the App Store, some come directly from developer websites, some are available

01:25:25 ◼   ► in both places.

01:25:27 ◼   ► How do you keep track of where you've got your apps so you don't confuse updates and

01:25:30 ◼   ► and licensed keys and all that kind of stuff.

01:25:33 ◼   ► - I, with all due respect to Swerd,

01:25:35 ◼   ► I don't agree with the premise of this question.

01:25:39 ◼   ► - Tell me about it.

01:25:40 ◼   ► - It's harder and harder to manage Mac apps.

01:25:42 ◼   ► I just don't see it.

01:25:45 ◼   ► I just don't see it.

01:25:47 ◼   ► The App Store has been around for a while now

01:25:49 ◼   ► and it does its app updates in its way.

01:25:53 ◼   ► And every other app I use has some sort of built-in

01:25:56 ◼   ► self-updating system, Sparkle or something else like it,

01:26:00 ◼   ► where it tells me if there's an update

01:26:02 ◼   ► and then I install it.

01:26:04 ◼   ► So I don't have any confusion about updates.

01:26:09 ◼   ► How do I keep track of where I get apps?

01:26:12 ◼   ► Like I don't understand that.

01:26:16 ◼   ► The apps are like, in terms of updates,

01:26:20 ◼   ► it'll tell me and otherwise I don't care.

01:26:22 ◼   ► License keys, I try to save license keys in 1Password,

01:26:27 ◼   ► but the truth is most of my license keys are in my Gmail.

01:26:30 ◼   ► and I search for them. But I just don't, I don't know, maybe this is me but I like,

01:26:36 ◼   ► I don't have, I don't get confused about my Mac apps. Like I just, I don't, I just don't.

01:26:43 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:26:45 ◼   ► What I'll say that I'll agree with Schwab is that the fact that it is separated is less than ideal.

01:26:51 ◼   ► Like I wished that everything was all in one place but everything could be all in that one place, right?

01:26:57 ◼   ► Like I would like as a user all apps to be in the App Store,

01:27:01 ◼   ► but that it would work for everyone that they are.

01:27:04 ◼   ► - I would go so far as to say,

01:27:05 ◼   ► I wish Apple would make an updates API

01:27:07 ◼   ► that would allow any app to register its updates

01:27:10 ◼   ► and have them display in the app updates list

01:27:15 ◼   ► instead of in each individual app.

01:27:17 ◼   ► That would be kind of fun, right?

01:27:19 ◼   ► But instead it's used as an App Store differentiator.

01:27:22 ◼   ► I think what Schwert is coming from here

01:27:23 ◼   ► is that, Schwert seems to be somebody

01:27:25 ◼   ► who has bought an app from one source,

01:27:27 ◼   ► but it's in both places and that that can be confusing.

01:27:30 ◼   ► And I agree that that can be confusing.

01:27:32 ◼   ► I generally, if something's available in the Mac App Store

01:27:37 ◼   ► and outside the Mac App Store,

01:27:38 ◼   ► I generally buy it outside of the Mac App Store.

01:27:41 ◼   ► That's generally my policy.

01:27:42 ◼   ► So I'm very rarely in a situation

01:27:44 ◼   ► where I'm thinking to myself,

01:27:46 ◼   ► "Oh, where did I get this?

01:27:47 ◼   ► Where did I not?"

01:27:48 ◼   ► I am a little more confused by Setapp,

01:27:50 ◼   ► former sometimes sponsor of this podcast,

01:27:54 ◼   ► which has its own sort of like system.

01:27:57 ◼   ► And so sometimes it'll be like, do I own this?

01:28:00 ◼   ► Or is this in set app?

01:28:01 ◼   ► That does happen from time to time.

01:28:03 ◼   ► But again, how do I keep track of it?

01:28:06 ◼   ► I look at the app and say,

01:28:07 ◼   ► is there a check for updates here or is it there?

01:28:10 ◼   ► That's it.

01:28:11 ◼   ► Otherwise I don't keep track, I guess is my real answer is.

01:28:14 ◼   ► I don't, I think that it's generally apparent

01:28:18 ◼   ► and I can search either purchased items in the app store

01:28:21 ◼   ► or in my Gmail or in my licenses in 1Password

01:28:25 ◼   ► to find out if I need to do something.

01:28:27 ◼   ► But generally it's just not an issue

01:28:30 ◼   ► that's required a solution.

01:28:31 ◼   ► Andrew asks, "Do you think advanced data protection

01:28:35 ◼   ► could make restoring a backup more reliable?

01:28:38 ◼   ► In other words, could you imagine more apps

01:28:40 ◼   ► would be able to retain their login state

01:28:42 ◼   ► when transferring an old phone to a new one?"

01:28:45 ◼   ► Would be nice.

01:28:46 ◼   ► I think what's happening here is that Apple

01:28:49 ◼   ► allows developers to set a flag about what gets backed up.

01:28:53 ◼   ► And I believe these are app developers saying,

01:28:56 ◼   ► "I don't wanna back that information up."

01:28:58 ◼   ► And that's why you have to do reentering later.

01:28:59 ◼   ► I believe that's what it is.

01:29:01 ◼   ► And it may have to do with their own security

01:29:03 ◼   ► or the fact that it's changing

01:29:05 ◼   ► to a different piece of hardware

01:29:06 ◼   ► and they don't wanna have the authentication move with that.

01:29:08 ◼   ► It needs to have a new authentication.

01:29:10 ◼   ► So what I would say is,

01:29:11 ◼   ► I don't know if this will make much of a difference.

01:29:13 ◼   ► I wish that Apple would do a better job

01:29:16 ◼   ► of perhaps evangelizing with developers

01:29:19 ◼   ► or coming up with a system developers can use

01:29:21 ◼   ► to make this easier.

01:29:23 ◼   ► What I really like is for them to take advantage

01:29:26 ◼   ► of something like maybe pass keys to make it

01:29:29 ◼   ► so that I can just biometrically authenticate

01:29:33 ◼   ► and I can use that.

01:29:34 ◼   ► But something here, I agree,

01:29:36 ◼   ► but I don't know if advanced data protection

01:29:38 ◼   ► is gonna make much of a difference.

01:29:41 ◼   ► - Gavin asks, this is for me really,

01:29:43 ◼   ► how was the process of dealing

01:29:44 ◼   ► with the upgrade submissions this year?

01:29:45 ◼   ► you mentioned it was painful in the past as your process changed.

01:29:48 ◼   ► I didn't change my process at all.

01:29:51 ◼   ► So the way you write, basically the upgradients would vote,

01:29:54 ◼   ► they put the information into a Google form, but for all but one question,

01:29:59 ◼   ► they're just open text fields that people can write into.

01:30:02 ◼   ► So people write things in varying ways with maybe it's one thing,

01:30:07 ◼   ► but they say it like, you know, it's set in like four different ways.

01:30:10 ◼   ► Like for example, Spiderman, some people would write Spiderman,

01:30:13 ◼   ► some people write Spider-man,

01:30:14 ◼   ► and some people might write "No Way Home" or whatever.

01:30:17 ◼   ► And so it requires, for me with the way that I do it,

01:30:21 ◼   ► it's a little bit manual, it was quite a lot manual,

01:30:24 ◼   ► which you have to kind of scroll through things

01:30:27 ◼   ► and change the names of stuff.

01:30:29 ◼   ► Basically, I've gotten better at this process

01:30:33 ◼   ► because I have recently done this for a quiz on Connected,

01:30:36 ◼   ► it's the same process.

01:30:37 ◼   ► So it was more fresh in my mind

01:30:39 ◼   ► and I'd kind of internalized the way to do it

01:30:42 ◼   ► my little shortcuts of how to make it quicker for me,

01:30:44 ◼   ► using clipboard managers and stuff like that to like,

01:30:48 ◼   ► yeah, so it was, it's laborsome,