370: The 2021 September Event Draft


00:00:00   [Music]

00:00:17   From relay.fm, this is Upgrade, episode 370. This special episode is brought to you by Pingdom and

00:00:24   TextExpander from Smile. This is the 2021 September event draft. The draft is here.

00:00:32   Band music! It was very good. Thank you to Chris Breen for the wonderful draft theme music.

00:00:36   As always, the Christopher Breen marching band.

00:00:39   Mm-hmm. I have a Hashtag Snell Talk question for you. It comes from me.

00:00:44   Oh.

00:00:44   Jason, is the summer of fun over now?

00:00:48   Yes.

00:00:49   It is, isn't it? It's done.

00:00:50   It is. It is. We had a good summer of fun.

00:00:53   We had a really good summer of fun. I think this might be, I'm just gonna say, output-wise, maybe our

00:00:59   best summer of fun. I think we did a really good job. I think we had a lot of fun things. We didn't

00:01:04   go too far this year, I think it's safe to say.

00:01:07   All right.

00:01:08   Could be argued maybe we've gone too far in other years. I don't think we go far enough, but hey,

00:01:14   you know. But thank you to everybody who has participated in the summer of fun.

00:01:18   Oh, and I've got a little bit of a listener question and answer that I want to provide in

00:01:24   here, which is people ask me, are you allowed to wear your new, fresh summer of fun merchandise?

00:01:29   Yes.

00:01:30   That we sold this summer, when it's not summer? And the answer is yes, because the summer of fun

00:01:36   is always with you, and you keep it in your heart. And also, oftentimes it's summery in months that

00:01:42   are not technically summer, so that's fine too. So in the coldest days of winter, the darkest days

00:01:48   of winter, keep the fires burning with the summer of fun merchandise. It's fine. Although if it's

00:01:55   the dead of winter, don't wear the tank top, maybe.

00:01:57   Yeah, that's probably a bad idea. So yeah, wear it prior to being nostalgic for the summer of fun,

00:02:03   or if you're not going to, take the shirt, fold it gently, put it in a box, you know, and put it

00:02:10   away somewhere safe. And then when the summer comes, you can have the whole ritual, like,

00:02:15   take it back out of the box.

00:02:16   Bringing it back out.

00:02:17   I definitely do that. I have stuff that I rotate in and out based on season. As meager as our

00:02:22   seasons here are, I still do that. So that's a good idea. Take your summery things and put them

00:02:28   away and know that they will return one day. Also, everybody who lives south of the equator,

00:02:32   I don't know, you know, get ready to put them on, I guess.

00:02:35   Yeah, if you're in places where summer is a different time, temperatures change at a

00:02:40   different time, get ready, because that thing's going to be on you all the time.

00:02:45   So we have some breaking news for today's episode. This was supposed to be just the draft,

00:02:51   but we couldn't miss this. We've been focusing so much recently on App Store changes and courts.

00:02:56   This feels like out of nowhere to me. I didn't have a thought in my mind that there was about

00:03:02   to be another ruling in the Apple versus Epic case, but it's happened today on September 10th.

00:03:08   Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers has ruled against Epic in a bunch of ways. Like, Apple can keep

00:03:14   its 30% cut. They can still ban Epic from the App Store if they want to.

00:03:18   Epic has to pay Apple 30% of what they made with their surreptitious launch of their in-app

00:03:23   purchase system, in fact. Which is like $3 million or something,

00:03:26   you think, or so, which is, I mean, let's be real, for these companies.

00:03:29   No, it's just an unkind cut, basically. But I would say, Jason, and like many more,

00:03:34   Epic actually won this. Well, I think they won the battle and lost the war, or maybe they lost,

00:03:40   I mean, no, I think it's that, because Epic kind of doesn't get a lot out of this,

00:03:45   but a precedent is set that other people will get a lot out of. Maybe not Epic, but everyone else.

00:03:51   I think they could do something later on to allow them. And what we're talking about is,

00:03:55   Apple is no longer allowed to, based on this judge's ruling, enforce anti-steering provisions

00:04:01   of App Store, on the App Store, including links to external payment mechanisms. Basically,

00:04:07   what this means is, the way that it can be read, developers will now be able to link to

00:04:14   external payment methods as much as they like. So what Epic did, by putting that little store

00:04:19   inside of the app, that will now become a legal thing for any developer to do.

00:04:25   Now, this has just come out. Apple, I believe, has not even issued a statement.

00:04:33   They did issue a statement that basically said, "Congratulations to us for winning the case."

00:04:38   Of course you did. So look, there's a lot that's going to go into this. Look, obviously,

00:04:43   we have the iPhone event coming up next week. We're probably going to dig into this in a couple

00:04:46   of weeks' time in more detail. But this could be absolutely massive. Effectively, what some people,

00:04:53   including yours truly, have been asking for, for a long time, especially during this Epic case,

00:04:59   is allow—Apple should allow companies to decide how they want to run their own businesses.

00:05:05   Yeah, this is something, when we talked on Monday's show about the idea that Apple's

00:05:13   strategy seems to be sort of incrementalist, and like every little chip, they'll give something

00:05:18   away and they've got like a plan for how to do that, but they don't want to just kind of come

00:05:22   out and announce a system that's reformed because people could still say that's not good enough.

00:05:27   And so instead, they seem to be navigating this sort of like piece by piece. This feels,

00:05:31   especially combined with the law that is in process in Korea, this feels like Apple will end up

00:05:39   having—and there's like a 90-day window before this goes into effect, and they could appeal it,

00:05:45   and they could ask for it to be stayed longer. But the idea is, I think this will probably lead

00:05:49   to an official change in App Store policy that allows full-on links to third-party payment

00:05:57   systems inside apps. The question is going to be sort of like, what's the detail here?

00:06:03   Because, you know, because Apple got—let it get to the point where a judge is in charge of it,

00:06:09   Apple can't just make changes. Apple has to make proposals and make sure the judge

00:06:17   interprets it as being within the judge's ruling, right? So it's complicated. But my guess is that

00:06:25   Apple has probably been planning behind the scenes for a scenario where they would need to allow

00:06:30   third-party purchases. And it goes through things like APIs, right? I mean, one that people keep

00:06:35   saying is a nightmare scenario is, does this bypass parental controls? So you can't stop your kid from

00:06:41   spending all this money on a linked credit card that they stole out of your wallet or something

00:06:47   like that. And ideally, no, right? Ideally, Apple would be allowed to enforce a rule that says,

00:06:54   you have to call the parental control API, get approval, and then pass the link along. But that's

00:06:59   kind of up to the judge. So we'll see what happens. But it does feel like Apple's blanket, you can't

00:07:07   link to external—first we had the one link, right? That was the first thing that happened.

00:07:10   And now it's the blanket kind of, you can't link to external payment sources from apps. That sounds

00:07:17   like that may be going away. They may be allowed to require in-app purchase via Apple to also be

00:07:23   available, which is interesting because if you're Amazon—

00:07:28   - Like sign in with Apple kind of thing, right? That you can have them, but you have to show all

00:07:33   of them. - And if that's the case in your Amazon and you want to put links to Kindle books in there,

00:07:37   do you just add 30% to the in-app purchase link and then let people choose? I don't know what all the

00:07:44   ramifications of this are. And my guess is that it's going to be much more complicated than

00:07:48   everybody's saying now. But we needed to mention it because— - This is massive news. This is massive

00:07:53   news. - It is. What is—now, we can laugh about Apple's batting themselves on the back for winning

00:07:58   the case thing, but this will change the app store forever in some way. Maybe to be determined,

00:08:03   but in some way. But also, Apple's not wrong in this sense, which is Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers

00:08:10   specifically said that the market that Epic is fighting about is the digital mobile gaming

00:08:17   transaction market. Epic wanted to define the market as essentially iPhone transactions. And

00:08:23   that would have meant that Apple is a monopolist because Apple has the monopoly on iPhone

00:08:28   transactions. And the judge basically said, "No, that's not it. What this is is a digital gaming

00:08:35   market and Epic has maximized its revenue everywhere else. And so this is what's left to

00:08:41   it. So it's trying to maximize its revenue here," which is clearly what was going on. But the judge

00:08:46   basically said, "No, Apple's not a monopoly. Just being successful does not make you a monopoly.

00:08:52   But it's still going to have a knock-on effect on the app store and the app store rules."

00:08:58   And honestly, this goes into those who said Apple's strategy of fighting everything and

00:09:04   then allowing incremental change to happen only when they lose or settle or have a law passed

00:09:12   against them. You look at this and you say, "Well, maybe this is what they're expecting,

00:09:18   is that they're going to lose some little bits, but they're not going to lose their 30% and they're

00:09:22   not going to be called a monopolist, but they have to change the app store rules a little bit

00:09:26   in ways that will probably not be as liberal as people think they are when it all is put out

00:09:31   there." You could argue that from Apple's perspective, this is a desirable result that

00:09:39   all the other threats didn't happen. This might be a best worst case scenario for them, right?

00:09:46   Yeah, I mean, well, in fact, you could really argue that depending on how pragmatic the people

00:09:49   are inside Apple, they knew that there was that they were going to be up against it with some of

00:09:54   their app store rules. They were just hoping that it would only be those and it allows them to go

00:10:00   out and say, "All right, yeah, you're right. We've heard you and we're going to be more fair," while

00:10:05   they're internally saying, "Really? We only had to give you the one thing and not these other four

00:10:09   things? Whew, we dodged a bullet there," right? It can be seen as a loss for Apple because they

00:10:14   are going to have to do this opening up of app store rules, but it depends on did Apple really

00:10:22   think they were not going to have to change? I think internally they probably expected that they

00:10:25   were. They may look at this and realize that this is actually a better than expected ruling for them,

00:10:30   but either way, it's going to be a big deal. The way apps work is going to change and the way

00:10:38   the economy of the app store works is going to change, at least in some cases,

00:10:44   and that should be interesting to watch because it's been pretty static for the last decade.

00:10:48   It's about time, in my opinion. Yeah, we're going to obviously keep our eye on this. We'll talk

00:10:52   about it in a couple of weeks once we have a lot more details than we have now, but this was

00:10:57   definitely worth mentioning. Something else worth mentioning, stjude.org/relay. Please go and donate.

00:11:04   I'm not going to go through the whole thing today. You'll hear about that again on Monday,

00:11:08   but I did want to just extend an absolutely monumental message. Thank you to every single

00:11:14   listener here who's donated. We have currently passed $250,000 raised in this year's campaign,

00:11:21   which has now put us over $1 million in the last three years. Tuesdays episode, not Monday's

00:11:27   episode. Next week. Thank you so, so much to everybody who has donated so far. We still have

00:11:35   a way to go. Continue to be getting your donations in for the Kids of St. Jude at stjude.org/relay.

00:11:41   And don't forget the Podcast-a-thon is coming up September 17th from 12 to 8 p.m. Eastern time

00:11:46   at twitch.tv/relayfm. Yeah, absolutely. Very excited about that. And then I will be there

00:11:52   for the Podcast-a-thon. Plus I've got game shows going on and it's going to be great. You're all

00:11:55   over the Podcast-a-thon this year, Jason Snow. Apparently I am. You sure are. But I wish I could

00:12:00   be there. I wish I could be there, but alas. So do I, my friend. So do I. Maybe next time. Maybe

00:12:05   next time. It is time for the draft and we must start every draft with the reading of the rules.

00:12:12   The reading of the rules. There have been some slight amendments to the rules this year, which

00:12:16   we'll get into. So we are doing 10 rounds, 20 overall picks. So we have 10 picks each.

00:12:22   The draft will be split into three categories. We get four iPhone rounds, three watch rounds,

00:12:28   three other rounds. The winner of the previous draft gets to pick first, which is Jason.

00:12:35   For an item to count, it must either be clearly announced on stage or on a slide during the

00:12:40   presentation. And this must be verifiable from the keynote video itself. Cannot be guesswork,

00:12:45   cannot be expectation. It must be shown and clear. Yes, this is a slight adjustment because where we

00:12:53   got into trouble last time was making assumptions about and allowing picks to be made about things

00:12:59   that couldn't be proven or disproven based on the contents of the keynote, or in this case,

00:13:04   you know, for keynote read video presentation. And the rule here is it's gotta be on the screen.

00:13:10   If it's small print, if it's a thing that flashes on briefly, that's fine. We can go back and

00:13:17   adjudicate that and litigate that because everybody loves that as much as we want. But if it's a thing

00:13:26   that requires further research and pouring over PR and media websites and interviews and stuff like

00:13:33   that, that's not in the spirit of this draft, which is meant to be everything that's on screen

00:13:38   and everything that's mentioned. So, ideally, these will be, and as we go through our picks,

00:13:45   we'll decide this, but the items that we're choosing from should all be verifiable within

00:13:52   the keynote video. But if there comes something that's not verifiable, then it doesn't count

00:13:59   because it has to be, the proof must be in the video. - You know, and I think in the future,

00:14:05   we're also gonna try, I guess, this is probably most important for WWDC, just to try and not

00:14:11   create picks that can't be proven. - Yes. - It comes from our work in the beginning. - That's

00:14:16   on us. This is not sort of a after the fact we do this. It's sort of like the rule, the meta rule

00:14:21   about how we construct our list that we're picking from because items, an item I'll mention it now,

00:14:28   it was later on in the rules, but it's items are chosen from a predetermined list of choices,

00:14:33   which we have agreed, among other things, are not ridiculously obvious. And I'm just adding,

00:14:41   I'm amending those rules amendments are verifiable on screen and not ridiculously obvious. The idea

00:14:47   here is, right, we don't wanna have people coming in kind of saying, well, technically,

00:14:54   I've done the research and, right, like, if we were to differentiate this contest from other

00:14:59   contests that people might do, I think the guiding principle is, if it's about the event or the video

00:15:07   of the event, right, that is what our whole thing is about. Unlike, say, the Ricky's. - And the

00:15:12   reason we do that is 'cause we record, say, straight after. - Right after, right. - So it's

00:15:16   too difficult for us to try and go through the whole thing. So we just, we draw a line in the

00:15:22   sand for what's in the events. - It's about the show. And in fact, our picks can be about the

00:15:27   show. And that's a funny thing that we do that a lot of other people who do silly contests about

00:15:31   Apple events don't do, which is have stagecraft picks and things like that. And so it really is

00:15:36   about the show, not about facts that come out after the show is over. So just that will save us

00:15:41   a lot of heartache later on. - Steven Hackett will adjudicate in a case, a scoring stalemate

00:15:46   between the two of us. We prefer to score ourselves, but when we can't, we use outside help.

00:15:51   No partial points. The points awarded on the episode of final, second amendment, and are

00:15:57   finalized during the scoring segment. So once we scored, that's it. Later in the episode, we can't

00:16:03   throw in a bomb because that's not how it's gonna work. - Right, so you and I are gonna

00:16:07   shake, virtually shake hands when we go to the break after the scoring segment. And if I'm

00:16:14   concerned or you're concerned that something isn't scored properly, don't agree to go to the

00:16:20   segment, right? Like throw it out there to the audience to solve it, bring in Steven, whatever

00:16:24   we need to do. But once we agree that it's over, it's over. And this is, this is, you could call

00:16:30   this the Snell rule if you want to. - In the case of a tie, there is a tiebreaker question,

00:16:37   and we pick that up front, and the loser at the previous draft gets to, gets their pick of the

00:16:43   tiebreaker. We'll do the tiebreaker now. We've done this over the last few drafts, and I think

00:16:49   it works really well. It is event runtime. So Jason, you get to pick a duration, and then I

00:16:55   will get to pick my over or under. - Yes, so Apple sent out, I've got a little tidbit here, Apple

00:17:01   sent out a calendar invite link with their event. - They always do. - Thing. And it's a two-hour slot.

00:17:09   Just wanna mention that. So Apple is reserving, as is customary, two hours for this event.

00:17:17   However, in the modern era, Apple has not done, the COVID era, let's say,

00:17:25   has not done lengthy runtime events. They've done a lot that are about an hour, and they've done a

00:17:32   few that are more like 90 minutes. So the question is, how do I set the runtime of this event

00:17:40   based on the track record? I'm just stalling now, aren't I? - Yeah, you're, 'cause you're just trying

00:17:47   to pick a number. You're just really struggling. I always do this too. Like, let me just talk

00:17:52   extemporaneously for a few moments while my brain is trying to compute runtimes that I think could

00:17:57   be beneficial to me. - Myke, the number is 72 minutes. - 72 minutes. So it's an hour and 12.

00:18:13   Did I do good? Did I pick a good one? - Yeah, you've picked real good. - I almost picked 69

00:18:19   minutes, and I thought, no, it's not worth it. I'm gonna do 72. - Under. - Under. I think that's

00:18:27   probably the right call. - Yep, you're gonna go under. - Again, I really kind of wanted to pick 60.

00:18:33   I wanted to pick, I was like 90 or 60. I'm like, well, 75. And I'm like, yeah, it's under that.

00:18:38   72, I could've gone 65, but that felt too short. So I think, again, it's a tiebreaker,

00:18:44   and it's meant to be a hard choice. So there it is. - I'll give you my thinking. - Okay. - There's

00:18:49   obviously gonna be more than one event this year in the fall. And I think for iPhone and Apple Watch,

00:18:55   which is probably what we're gonna get, I'll be surprised if they went that much over an hour

00:19:00   on a prerecorded video. - My thinking is, iPhone's really important. They do like to pack things

00:19:06   around the iPhone. We may get some things about like Apple TV. We'll see. We're gonna draft

00:19:10   about that. But now, if they do that, and then they pile in the Apple Watch,

00:19:15   and then is there other stuff in there? I wonder if it will end up being more like what they wanted

00:19:24   last year's event to be, perhaps, but pulled the iPhone out. At which point they may have enough

00:19:30   stuff stacked into it that it goes more like 90 minutes. But I think it's just as plausible that

00:19:37   they've decided the video event should be an hour, and that's what they always shoot for. So we'll

00:19:41   see if they break it here. But I feel like if there was ever an event for them to go more like 90

00:19:45   instead of 60, this might be it. We'll see. - Okay. - I like your chances on the tiebreaker, but I

00:19:52   was torn on this. - So the results in the draft so far this year, I won the April draft. Jason won

00:19:57   the WWDC draft. - Through great controversy. - I have noted this forever in our scoring list as

00:20:05   by adjudication, which I actually think I'm gonna add that whenever somebody does win by an

00:20:10   adjudicated rule, I'm gonna put that in. Just because I just think it's important to know,

00:20:14   it also notes it the same as if we won by tiebreaker. I will note that. - And if anybody is

00:20:21   like Zach Knox or somebody else is keeping track of the history of the

00:20:25   upgrade draft, I think an asterisk is not too much to ask in a situation like that. - Speaking of Zach

00:20:31   Knox, Zach does great work in putting together some scorecards, which you can follow along with. So

00:20:36   there are upgrade.cards is the URL now, and of course there will be a link in the show notes to

00:20:42   this one. So you can follow along scoring with us while we're all picking and scoring

00:20:50   for next week. So during the event. - Fun fun. - Should we take our first break and get into the first round?

00:20:55   - Yeah, I'm gonna psych myself up and be ready to go. - This episode is brought to you by our friends

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00:22:41   Upgrade and Relay FM. All right, so we now enter our first set of picks. So the first four rounds

00:22:47   are iPhone picks. Jason, what is your first pick? My first pick is higher frame rate display

00:22:57   comes to iPhone Pro models. Myke will riot if this doesn't happen. I'll tell you that right now. I

00:23:05   have been asking for this from Apple for I think three years now. I know. ProMotion on an iPhone

00:23:13   Pro. Now one of the things I did inspired by your lengthy discussion on the Ricky's episode of

00:23:19   Connected this week is add some specificity to some of our picks where I felt like I noticed that

00:23:26   you could skate away a little bit. So I basically for a couple of these iPhone things just to make

00:23:30   it interesting, I basically changed it so that you have to commit to it either being all models or

00:23:38   just the Pro models rather than sort of saying, "An iPhone will get this feature." I wanted it to

00:23:44   be a little more risky than that. I like it. It's a little bit more challenge. So not all of the

00:23:49   features are like that, but like for some of these things where there's a real question about like,

00:23:52   is this going to be across the line or is it going to be just on the Pro models? And in this one,

00:23:56   it feels like a Pro model kind of feature, ProMotion, Pro model. It should be on all

00:24:00   the phones I would say. It should be, I agree. But I don't think they will start that way.

00:24:04   I think it will start with Pro and then over the years because like look, I think one of the reasons

00:24:09   it's been well reported at this point that Apple have not done this is they have not been able to

00:24:14   produce the kind of scale of these displays and display controllers that they would need at the

00:24:20   quality that they want is one of the things that's been said. So it would make a lot of sense for

00:24:25   them to start down this path with just one phone and they do this all the time. There are, I mean,

00:24:30   I don't want to spoil anything we'll come to later on, but there are rumors about like potentially

00:24:35   LIDAR or other technologies going down the line. We see this all the time with Apple products, right?

00:24:39   And you want to differentiate. You have a Pro model and a not Pro model. You want them to be

00:24:43   different in not just price, but in functionality to drive people up to the Pro model. And the

00:24:47   feature is called ProMotion, right? It's absolutely. Put it in the Pros. Yeah, exactly.

00:24:52   Which is so funny thinking how old that technology is now. I think WWDC was still in San Francisco,

00:24:59   I think maybe, or it might've been like the first San Jose year where they introduced ProMotion to

00:25:05   an iPad because it came to the, what was then I believe 9.7 inch iPad Pro, I think.

00:25:11   Yeah. I want to say it was not even- Or was it the 10 inch one?

00:25:16   I want to say, I think that was the last town hall event. Maybe I'm getting it wrong,

00:25:19   but I have a memory that I think is from that event of seeing and asking an Apple person about

00:25:27   ProMotion while standing in the piano bar outside the town hall center.

00:25:32   June 2017, iPad Pro in 10.5 inch and 12.9 inch models introduced the world's most advanced

00:25:40   display and breakthrough performance. And was that at WWDC?

00:25:43   That was WWDC, yeah. Okay. So I wonder what my memory is.

00:25:46   iOS 11 WWDC was when they announced it. Yeah. It's an old feature only on iPad.

00:25:52   To get it on the iPhone, you use devices, you use phones that have got that high refresh rate.

00:25:58   My Z Flip has 120 Hertz and it's fantastic. Yeah, right?

00:26:03   So I really hope that they do it. They have to do it at some point. This really should be the year.

00:26:08   I feel like that too. I mean, I felt that the last two years, but it sounds like

00:26:12   this may be the year that it aligns and I've decided to specifically predict that they're

00:26:16   going to go on the pro models. All right. My first pick,

00:26:19   I'm going for the worst kind of pick. I'm going for a naming pick.

00:26:24   A naming pick. The series name is iPhone 13.

00:26:27   I thought you would pass this by. That was part of my draft strategy. I think that this is the

00:26:34   most certain of all the picks. Yeah. That's why I went for it. It was my number one.

00:26:38   The higher frame rate was my number two pick. Look, we said it a million times.

00:26:43   I want Apple to do something a little bit more exciting with the names rather than just year

00:26:47   over year incrementing of one. And I know that 13 is an unlucky number, but I don't think they care

00:26:55   ultimately. They did iOS 13. iOS 13 was a disaster. It was really funny because it was the unlucky

00:27:03   iOS. For me, I was umm-ing and ahh-ing over it a little earlier in the year, but because they've

00:27:10   done iOS 13, they will do the iPhone 13. I don't really see any reason why this would be an issue

00:27:17   for them at this point. If they're just going to keep incrementing year over year, I think they

00:27:24   should pull a Samsung if they're going to keep doing it. Samsung went to 20 just because it

00:27:28   sounds more fun than just keep going up the teens, right? But like iPhone 17, like it just sounds

00:27:34   kind of rubbish to me, but this is kind of where they are and I think that they're not

00:27:39   going to pull off that train yet. Pick number two. Yeah. You're already struggling with pick

00:27:47   number two? I am. I am. Well, I made it hard for myself with the iPhone. Is it iPhone Pro or is it

00:27:54   everywhere? Right, right, right, right. Yep. Oh boy. I am going to pick low-end iPhones

00:28:01   gain a LIDAR sensor. Everybody loves LIDAR. Look, this is one of those things where it's like

00:28:08   you just, they want to get it out there, right? Like it's AR and all that kind of stuff.

00:28:13   I mean, I'm kind of on board of you here. It was relatively high up in my list. I would have picked

00:28:19   it in my top four. It makes sense to me, right? Like it's not exciting for anyone really, like,

00:28:30   but it does improve AR. You know, I will say any AR experience that I've used on one of the LIDAR

00:28:37   products, it is better and Apple seems to really believe in it. So why have you picked it? Is it

00:28:45   all that stuff that I've said? Do you have another reason? Yeah, no, I think that's, is that it feels

00:28:50   like this is the trickling down because Apple cares about AR and they want it to be, you know,

00:28:56   they want to, they want to promote it more. How much, how expensive can the LIDAR sensor be?

00:29:00   They put it on a bunch of other products. Having it on all iPhones is probably helpful.

00:29:04   And, you know, yes, there are rumors to this effect, but also it feels like a fairly easy

00:29:08   thing to add to those iPhones in order to get the whole line to be able to do their cool

00:29:14   scanning features that they want people to do. And they will be bringing in other differentiators

00:29:19   on the pro line, so they won't need it for this one. One of those I reckon will be my next pick,

00:29:25   which is that the pro phones get a camera feature that other phones do not have.

00:29:29   One of the expectations from this, from the rumors is that the pro phones will get a

00:29:36   improved ultra wide lens, which is really needed. I like using my ultra wide lens. I do it a lot. So

00:29:44   for example, basically all of the pictures I've been taking of my Steven Hackett sticker desk,

00:29:49   I'm using the ultra wide for that because I can fit more in the frame.

00:29:53   But the quality of the image that comes from that sensor is so much worse than what we see

00:30:00   in the main sensor. Like for example, if you know, take from the same place, I take a picture of

00:30:05   something and zoom in and I can read the text on my notepad. But with the ultra wide, it's just

00:30:10   garbage. So I would love to see that sensor improve. I remember Apple, they do a good job

00:30:17   of trying to retain color and stuff between the three of them, which is nice, but just the overall

00:30:23   quality is worse. It gets really dark around the edges. So I really want to see this. That's what

00:30:30   I think it will be. But honestly, every year Apple does something, like whether it's promotion,

00:30:36   there are rumors of a pro raw video or something like that, like a new video codec or portrait

00:30:43   video. All of those would count. The idea that there's something that's based on the camera

00:30:47   that you know, or the software that goes around the camera that is only available on pro models.

00:30:52   I was thinking about this this morning about cameras on phones and I want to see if you agree

00:30:58   with me on this. The camera is the most important feature on a new smartphone. Yeah. Like that's

00:31:04   just, it's not a complex thesis here, but it was just something I was thinking about today. It's

00:31:09   the most important feature. Yeah. I think that's been the case for years. And I think that that's

00:31:12   what drives upgrades and what makes people happy buying a new phone is that the camera is so much

00:31:16   better because we rely on the camera so much of our smartphone in our lives, right? So I think it

00:31:23   is the most important feature and the best chance that a lot of companies have to innovate as well

00:31:30   is with a camera. And I think it's the thing that like, as you say, it's what can set companies

00:31:35   apart and it's the most important like direct customer thing because everything else I feel

00:31:40   like is software, you know, or like how software takes care, like it can work with other pieces of

00:31:47   hardware in the device. But I think it's really, it lies on the camera because you can have

00:31:52   something really cool in your phone, but if the camera sucks, no one's going to buy it.

00:31:55   Right. And I think it's, I don't think there is another feature in a phone that's like that,

00:32:00   you know, where it's like, oh, well, if this part isn't good, no one's going to buy your phone.

00:32:03   And I think the camera is really the differentiator there for not, not, you know,

00:32:09   I'm talking about like at large, but I also think in nerd communities too, right? Like

00:32:14   you can put a bunch of cool stuff in the phone, but if the camera sucks,

00:32:18   I don't want it. Camera's really important to me on the phone. And like, I'm going to take a

00:32:23   downgrade. Like, no, I'm not going to do that. So pick number three. Oh boy. Oh, it's so hard. Okay.

00:32:30   I'm going to do it. I am going to pick that there isn't always on display, but only on the pro.

00:32:34   Yeah. Come on. This is a passion pick for me. I think it is. I feel like I'm stealing some of

00:32:42   your passionate choices here and I'm jumping in my, my I've made this much harder on myself. Like

00:32:47   the only thing giving me pause with both of this and the high frame rate is, is it on the pro models

00:32:51   or all of them I'm believe it or not. I know this is going to sound weird. I'm actually a little

00:32:56   less certain of this one being only on pro models. First off, it may not happen. It's just been

00:33:01   rumored a little bit and it's kind of lightly sourced. But secondly, I also think it's possible

00:33:07   that they will, they will put this across all models if they do it. Um, but I'm gonna,

00:33:13   I'm gonna go in on the idea that Apple has decided that this really nice screen technology that

00:33:19   enables, they may even give it a name, right? They always have a name for all their screens.

00:33:24   I can't even tell them apart anymore. They've got super retina and mini HDR and XDR and whatever

00:33:30   else. They may give this a name, the pro models display that includes both high frame rate and

00:33:38   an always on mode. That is, um, you know, I, I, at the very least like a clock and maybe an indication

00:33:46   of your notifications or maybe it will work with focus mode to allow certain notifications through

00:33:51   and others not or, and then maybe, although this sounds more like something that will come next

00:33:55   year, there is a third party story where third parties can place little info widgets that are

00:34:00   like watch complications on there. I think it's more likely that what third parties will be

00:34:04   allowed to do is have a certain notification priority that gets rolled up in certain modes

00:34:11   into displaying them on the face. Oh my word. Yeah. That might be the whole point behind the

00:34:15   time sensitive notification, right? If it's something like that and then focus mode could

00:34:19   change how it, you know, where it sends things and including sending it to the loss. That's the

00:34:25   whole point of focus and time sensitive this year. So just, just in case, like give a bit of a

00:34:30   refresher, cause we talk about high frame rate, talk about high frame rate. Typically what we're

00:34:34   talking about is like 120 Hertz, which is, you know, but what it also means is, is variable.

00:34:41   That's, that's one of the key parts of this technology. Apple has it in promotion. So the

00:34:45   reason you could have an always on display is you could bring that all the way down to one Hertz,

00:34:50   like you get on the watch where it's just refreshing like once a second or whatever,

00:34:54   or whatever. That's right. That's how you, that's how you save power is that you crank it down to

00:35:00   a very low frame rate when it's not being used to animate anything. And you can actually,

00:35:06   iPads do this. And it's one of the reasons that the iPad display is as efficient as it is,

00:35:11   is it's not just when it's asleep. Like if you're sitting at the home screen,

00:35:14   staring at your apps, deciding which app to launch that home screen has been cranked down to no frame

00:35:20   rate, basically. If you're watching like a video that's in 30 frames or 60 frames a second, it's

00:35:24   just operating at that. It's not doing exactly like 120. If you watch a movie that's 24 frames a

00:35:30   second, the display ratchets down to 24 frames a second. That's what it's doing there. Um, so yeah,

00:35:36   it's all about that kind of level of control. And if they can put that in a display, I would love it

00:35:42   in all the phones as somebody who really wants to buy a mini. I will tell you, if this beautiful

00:35:47   display is in only pro phones, I will be really torn about buying an iPhone pro instead of a mini.

00:35:55   Oh, Jason, it'd be a mistake. I genuinely think it would be a mistake. Like if you are a person

00:36:00   who is on the fence, uh, take it from someone who's used a higher frame rate display.

00:36:04   I'm not on the fence. I'm over the fence. I'm over the fence. I'm in mini land, right? I'm in

00:36:08   mini land. I would have to hop the fence. You would be back on the fence, right? That's what

00:36:12   you're saying. Like if they, like what was cool. And I think you would, I think you were better.

00:36:17   And also you've got to get off the mini train because this is your last one anyway. So you

00:36:21   may as well get off it before they force you off it. Yeah, but I love it so much. Yeah. Oh,

00:36:26   we'll see. Love it as much as you like. Not enough people have. All right. I'm going for one. I've

00:36:31   been wanting this for a while. I think it's going to happen. The notch will be called out as being

00:36:35   smaller on at least one model of iPhone. All right. Now please note the way that this is

00:36:41   worded is very particularly in spirit of our new rules. It's not that the notch is smaller. This is

00:36:46   if we had picked the notch is smaller on at least one model, then after the fact, people are like,

00:36:51   well, on the marketing page, it does point out that the notch size is a millimeter.

00:36:55   Underscore has proven this for me. This has already happened. The iPhone mini has a slightly

00:36:59   smaller notch, right? But it's not what we're talking about. So the point here is notch called

00:37:04   out as being smaller. That's somebody on stage saying, hey, we made the notch smaller. So there's

00:37:09   more room for content. They need to call it out. It could be on a slide, right? It could say,

00:37:15   you know, not just smaller on one of those big slides, but they have to call it out,

00:37:19   not just have it be part of the facts that come out afterward. Let me ask you a question.

00:37:24   Yeah. Could we, would this count if they said they had increased the amount of screen space?

00:37:30   I would say if the implication there is that by reducing the notch, they've increased the

00:37:34   amount of screen space. I would probably give that to you. Right. You know, uh, but it would

00:37:38   have to be clear that it's not about the edges or something like that, that they're, you know,

00:37:42   what they're saying is the not just smaller without mentioning the notch that would,

00:37:46   that would work for me, but they really need to actually promote it. It would be wild to me

00:37:50   if they did decrease it and didn't mention it. You know what I mean? Cause it's like, look,

00:37:54   we, nobody wants this thing to be there. If you've made it smaller, great news. Right. You know what

00:38:01   I mean? Like, uh, cause I think that we're probably about to see the next generation of face ID

00:38:06   technology, which might not be a lot, a lot of new stuff. Maybe it's quicker or whatever,

00:38:11   but I think in doing that, they can say, and we've been able to package this in a smaller,

00:38:14   you know, like that kind of thing. Yeah. So we have a question in the relay FM members discord

00:38:18   about, you know, what do you mean by that? Absolute size ratio to screen. What does it mean? And the

00:38:22   answer is it doesn't matter because what we're really talking about here is messaging, right?

00:38:25   Which I think is in the truest spirit of the upgrade draft, which is do they extol the virtues

00:38:30   of a new phone as having more room for content and less sensor space, right? Like do they choose to

00:38:39   call that out as a design feature of the new models if they do might gets the point here

00:38:46   because that's the point of it is they're using this change and promoting it. If it's silent,

00:38:53   it's a stealth change. They're not going to talk about it. Then Myke doesn't get the point because

00:38:57   that's what we're really picking here is not, we're not going to get out our calipers and measure

00:39:01   this. We really want to know like, is Apple going to promote the shrinking of the notch as a user

00:39:06   benefit in some way? Or as you pointed out, I think quite rightly, Myke, you are thinking like

00:39:11   Apple there thinking like an Apple marketing executive, really we're not shrinking the notch

00:39:15   so much as expanding the content area. Okay. Yeah. Got it. Got it. That Epic Apple one was a big win

00:39:23   too. I hear massive win huge win. We won bigly today. Oh man. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Yup. Oh dear.

00:39:33   You can't win if you don't lose. All right. So final pick in the iPhone round. Oh my God.

00:39:43   This is bad. So I have enough of five things that I would, that I think might happen here.

00:39:50   Uh huh. So we have this, we have a large list. Uh, I whittle it down to the things that I think

00:39:56   are likely and personally rank them. And so this is a, this is a tricky one. This is a tricky one.

00:40:02   Yeah. I'm going to go on brand with pricing and I'm going to say the new phones match the iPhone

00:40:12   12 price points. This was mine. This was my fourth pick. And again, I'm not saying like all the skews

00:40:18   with all the things are going to be exactly the same, but what I'm saying is the base price

00:40:23   of the new models will be the base price of the existing models that they are not going to lower

00:40:29   it down or ratchet it up. So I'm going to add to this because remember we had some, uh, finagling

00:40:36   last time. So we will go with the prices they put on stage because look, you can start getting into

00:40:43   the weeds like it had done before. Like, Oh yeah, but this does mean with a carry AT&T promo and

00:40:49   what they show on screen, what they put on slides. That's what we're judging this on.

00:40:53   Right. And that's going to match what they're implying on those slides. Right. So if they,

00:40:57   if they, if they put it up there and say like, this is with the AT&T, they won't do this discount.

00:41:02   Then we would say, well, is that the same price as it was? But I think in the end they have a

00:41:06   marketing price and the marketing price is probably the, uh, the base all in price. And

00:41:12   that's what we're talking about here is basically did they raise, did they use the iPhone 13 as an

00:41:16   opportunity to raise the price of the pro phones? They could, they totally could. I almost chose

00:41:22   some phones cost more. Allow me to stop you right there so we can have this conversation in full.

00:41:26   Some iPhones or some phones cost more than iPhone 12 price points will be my fourth.

00:41:32   Oh, right. We're just going to go head to head on price. It's a very Apple thing to do, right? This

00:41:37   is the, this is the Snell's law, right? More than enough reasons this year because technology is

00:41:42   actually becoming harder to make more expensive to make in 2021. It's true.

00:41:46   Because there are chip shortages. So I, you know, we can almost guarantee that if Apple are able to

00:41:51   make this thing at scale, it's probably going to be a little bit more expensive for them. They've

00:41:55   had to bid higher than some of their competitors to make this work. I could imagine them saying

00:42:02   the, the pro phone is a little bit more expensive this year because of the screen. I could see.

00:42:05   I absolutely could. I mean, like I said, I was torn between these two. I like that we're going head to

00:42:09   head on this. I'm being, I feel like I'm being optimistic by the way. I also put some phones

00:42:14   cost less as a pick, but we're, we're in. So I am the voice of optimism that Apple is not going to

00:42:23   use a new product cycle as an opportunity to slowly ratchet up. My feeling is slowly ratchet up the

00:42:29   pro phone price, because now that they've got the non-pro phones in their lineup, that gives them

00:42:34   more latitude without people. I mean, some people are going to scream bloody murder about any Apple

00:42:38   price increase, but like Apple's going to always be able to say, but look, you can get an iPhone,

00:42:43   iPhone 13 for a reasonable price. You don't need to buy an iPhone pro. And that gives them some

00:42:49   defense, uh, while they're raising those prices. So I think you're perfectly reasonable pick to

00:42:55   make. And I almost made it myself. In my list, I had these as my fourth and fifth. So like I was

00:43:01   going with one of these. Um, I mean, if I was going to put my money on it, like if we were

00:43:07   having a bet, I would say that they will match the price points, but I wouldn't make that an

00:43:12   expensive bet because I could see this as a year where they would maybe tweak a bit. And do you

00:43:18   know what, Jason, honestly, I expect it will be, but they might just do some, some fancy, uh, uh,

00:43:24   magic with the numbers, but, but I would expect that to be like, if you're buying outright,

00:43:30   no benefit, these might be a little bit more expensive. Well, we will see, but I like,

00:43:35   I like that. We're going to have to watch that closely. Me too. That'd be fun. All right. So

00:43:38   that's the iPhone picks down. So that's the first four rounds. So we will take a break here and

00:43:43   thank Pingdom from SolarWinds for the support of this episode. Today's internet users, they expect

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00:44:42   upgrade at checkout and you get an awesome 30% off your first invoice. Our thanks to Pingdom from

00:44:47   SolarWinds for the support of this show and Relay FM. And a shout out to Pingdom. They told me my

00:44:53   server was dying before we knew about it. And that was actually very helpful. So real world use.

00:45:01   It's genuinely super good. Like we use it here at Relay FM too. Like I do actually genuinely love

00:45:07   that we have it in our Slack. And then Steven also has it send text messages to him. Like very,

00:45:12   very useful tool. So let's move to watch picks. There was a rumor today or a report from Ming-Chi

00:45:19   Kuo that it looks like Apple has resolved the issues that they may have been having with getting

00:45:24   the Apple Watch put together in time. So it's looking very likely that the Apple Watch will

00:45:30   make its way into this event to be shipped in mid September. So why? Yes. And in Ming-Chi Kuo,

00:45:39   we trust my first pick is the Apple Watch will ship in September.

00:45:42   All right. Okay. Go bold on that. I think. Ming-Chi Kuo I trust. Because they might not say it.

00:45:52   They might not. They might just say orders on this date. They might. And then we're not going to know.

00:45:59   So I'm going with what I think is a much safer pick. Apple Watch design is updated with flat

00:46:03   sides. Okay. That is a safe pick. Because it's time for a change. It's time for a new design.

00:46:09   And Apple believes that flat sides are right for all of their products. Myke Hurley agrees with

00:46:14   them. I love the way that Apple has been attacking industrial design over the last few years. I'm

00:46:19   sitting in front of my beautiful iMac, which is very quickly, we're going off on a tangent now,

00:46:27   taking that crown as maybe my favorite Mac ever. Your yellow. It is an absolute trooper

00:46:35   in the tasks that I use. I think it's my most powerful machine or like the one that I feel

00:46:41   is the most powerful because it handles all of my editing way smoother than my Mac Pro ever did.

00:46:47   And it's yellow and I love it. And it's beautiful. It's beautiful. I have the touch ID keyboard. I

00:46:54   have a yellow trackpad. I love this thing. It's good stuff. My companion this summer for

00:47:01   macOS Monterey has been my orange Apple loaner that I allowed them to, I asked them to extend

00:47:07   so that I could use it with Monterey. And so it's been running macOS Monterey all summer.

00:47:11   And yeah. How would you feel about an Apple Watch design update like this that's being proposed?

00:47:18   I'm looking forward to it. I think it is nicer than the, like I've gotten really used to the

00:47:26   Apple Watch and its design, but there is some aspect of it that it's like the kind of bubbly

00:47:32   sides that a more flat sided design like on the all these other Apple products that have come out

00:47:41   lately. I think that would feel and look nice and more kind of with the times. I think I was

00:47:48   thinking about that. You know that Bluetooth keyboard from Matthias that I like, but it's like

00:47:55   enormous bubbly plastic and it's very old Apple design. It's the Matthias extended pro or something.

00:48:01   Or the tactile. Yeah. So those designs, the problem, I love those keyboards, but their

00:48:05   design is very Apple from the late 90s or early 2000s. And Apple Watch, not quite that bubbly,

00:48:12   but it is a little bit like it feels, again, it's nice and I like it. But if we're just talking

00:48:19   about sort of fashion and modernity, I think something that feels more like what they've got

00:48:25   on the other products. I'm looking forward to it. I think it could look really good.

00:48:29   As a begrudging Apple Watch wearer at the moment, as I have been for the last few months,

00:48:33   because look, I don't like the design, but oh boy, do I love the health features. It's making a big

00:48:40   impact on my life right now. So I'm into it. So I'm going to keep wearing it. I want it to look

00:48:46   different. I want it to look more modern. To me now it looks old because it is old. So a new design,

00:48:52   larger face, cooler sides. I hope they have some cool materials that I'm into, but just on paper,

00:49:01   I will say actually on this event, I think I'm most excited for the Apple Watch

00:49:06   because I want there to be changes for me, stuff that I want from a device that I'm a little bit

00:49:14   begrudgingly or like a little bit unhappy with. I love my iPhone 12 Pro Max. Honestly,

00:49:20   I would use this for another year and I'd be really happy. I freaking love this iPhone.

00:49:23   It's so good and it looks so fantastic, the gold. But my Apple Watch, I really want an update for.

00:49:30   Yeah, in terms of personal purchase, I will probably buy an iPhone this fall, but I think

00:49:37   I will almost certainly buy an Apple Watch this fall because I'm a generation back.

00:49:42   Yeah. And I am an Apple Watch user and use it all the time and use it a lot. And so for me,

00:49:50   I'm definitely going to be watching that closely and hoping that it's going to be what I want.

00:49:55   I would be willing to put a long-term prediction. We'll find out in a few months time.

00:50:00   I will bet that if they do this design, if they update the design really significantly,

00:50:06   this will be one of the largest Apple Watch quarters of all time. Because I think you'll

00:50:11   get a lot of people that are on the older watches see it and be like, "Yeah, I want a new one."

00:50:16   Like we see with iPhones, right? When they redesign the iPhones, like they just did,

00:50:20   huge, huge numbers. They've never redesigned the Apple Watch. They made the screen.

00:50:24   Yeah, sometimes design is the driver.

00:50:25   But they never redesigned it. And I think, honestly, I think design is more important

00:50:30   to the Apple Watch than the iPhone because we wear this thing. Design is important. So I actually do

00:50:37   think two things. One is going to be huge. And then going forward, I expect there to be a new

00:50:41   design every few years like the iPhone. They've held on to this design for too long. Why they've

00:50:45   been not like working out the way the technology works. I think it's time to see design change.

00:50:51   I don't know about too long, but like they've been trying to figure out how to-

00:50:53   I think it's been too long.

00:50:54   How the device works.

00:50:55   2015 to now, six years, that's too long. For one design, it's too long. Pick number two, Jason.

00:51:00   All right. I am going to go with, speaking of changing the watch, I'm going to go with the

00:51:05   screen increase that we're going to get an incremental screen increase. There's going

00:51:10   to be a bigger screen on these Apple Watches. They're just going to be a little bit bigger.

00:51:14   And that will enable more content to be placed on the faces of the screen. And they'll talk about

00:51:20   that. Yep. That's it.

00:51:21   Because they have to do this, right? So if it's going to keep the same or close to the

00:51:26   same physical size, which it's very likely to, and is actually rumored to be getting like a

00:51:31   millimeter bigger. If you flatten the edges, if you don't make the screen bigger, you just have

00:51:36   huge bezels, right? Like imagine if you just like you extend now, make it a box from where you get

00:51:43   those curved edges. The bezels would be massive. So like kind of like series three again, right?

00:51:50   So going to a larger screen makes a lot of sense. And also, you know,

00:51:55   jury's out on how people will feel about a larger screen on the watch. But as long as they don't

00:52:02   make the watch like too big for people, it's going to be fine.

00:52:07   I would like to add my second picket ties in with this one a little bit, which is new watch faces

00:52:11   added. This was also reported by Mark Gurman, but it's in line with what Apple did last time,

00:52:17   you know, when they went from three to four, and they added infograph and all that kind of stuff.

00:52:22   If you've got a larger screen, you can do new things with it. And so that should mean new

00:52:27   watch faces that can take advantage of that. Yeah, I think that makes sense. There have been

00:52:32   some reports about that. My guess is that they will, this is not a pick, but they will

00:52:37   frustratingly introduce some new watch faces while not updating old watch faces. Oh, for sure, Jason,

00:52:44   because why, why break of a pattern? They have faces that are unchanged from the previous screen

00:52:52   size change, which drives me up a wall, but that's just what it is. That seems to be what they're

00:52:57   doing for a company that refuses to let third parties design watch faces. Apple's bandwidth

00:53:03   in terms of the watch faces that it churns out is shockingly low. Like the fact that,

00:53:10   and the argument I get is, well, yeah, but we need some watch faces on the smaller model that

00:53:14   we're still selling that is old. Like, okay, it doesn't preclude you from doing another version

00:53:20   of it that takes advantage of the size on the new watch. But they haven't done that. It's really

00:53:26   disappointing. But yes, I agree. They'll throw a couple new watch faces in that take advantage of

00:53:30   the new size and add bigger complications or more complications or something like that. And they'll

00:53:35   run alongside the ones that don't and are just disappointing. What's your third and final pick

00:53:41   in the watch category? I'm putting my money down on the power of investing in watch bands to say

00:53:48   that they will change the design of this watch, but they will not break band compatibility because

00:53:54   that would make lots and lots of people sad and more important to Apple, make them more reluctant

00:54:01   to upgrade, which is what matters to Apple. Or if they do upgrade, reluctant to buy new watch bands.

00:54:09   Or, and also depress the watch band economy. So I feel like Apple is going to do everything it

00:54:14   can for a very long time to not break band compatibility. Honestly, I don't know why

00:54:20   they would ever have to. At this point, I think they need to consider that shape to be given in

00:54:27   anything they do. They can design around that as much as they want. You know, like there are a lot,

00:54:32   even if the watch gets like thinner or smaller, you can still, they could have a protrusion that

00:54:38   it goes into, you know, like this is many lugs of watches. They're not like connected to the face.

00:54:44   They have like a part that it attaches to. Right. I don't really see for the long future why they

00:54:52   would need to change the way the watches are. You and I have speculated before about the idea

00:54:58   that Apple may be doing, you know, variations on the watch in the future, like a sport watch,

00:55:03   which sounds like is more likely to happen next year than this year, but like, or even could have

00:55:08   a midstream, who knows, but the idea that they might do a ruggedized model of watch for extreme

00:55:15   sports and things like that, that's essentially the same watch, but in a different case.

00:55:21   And they might do some of that and have those things be totally different, but I feel like

00:55:25   the core watch, they're going to just want to keep compatibility with that forever.

00:55:30   You know what I will say before we lock all this in, Zach has made a very good point in the

00:55:34   discord that it is unlikely Apple will say that your old bands will work. Are you still

00:55:38   comfortable with that? This might be a tricky one for us to litigate. Because I don't think

00:55:44   they would say a word about that. So what you're saying is if they break compatibility,

00:55:48   would they tell you? I guess I'm picking something for not happening.

00:55:52   It'd be tricky for us to know though. That's a good question. We had such a good

00:55:56   conversation about it. It is. I don't know if this is a pick you should keep if I'm being honest with

00:56:01   you. Because I think that there is no way you will be able to confirm that. Because I think the

00:56:07   likelihood of, oh, we've got a new pick, we're getting a new pick. This one works for me. Do

00:56:12   you want to read what you've written in? Apple announces no changes in band compatibility.

00:56:16   Okay, so that's still not sure. So you think that they will say there is...

00:56:21   Apple does not announce changes in band compatibility. That's a better pick for this.

00:56:27   It's still the same result, but allows us to more accurately score it. Which is basically that they

00:56:36   don't say anything. And that means it's fine. Yeah. In theory. I mean, it still could be that

00:56:42   they change it. They just don't say it. But it doesn't matter because that's still the pick.

00:56:47   Well, we had a nice conversation about it. We sure did.

00:56:48   So that's good. I'm going to say that with everything else going on with this watch,

00:56:53   larger screen, new design, and just where Apple is right now, no new health sensors added to this

00:56:59   watch. We had that report that we were... I think we spoke about it. We might have touched on it.

00:57:04   Or it may have been unconnected. I don't remember. That they're working on a bunch of stuff,

00:57:11   but it's a couple of years away. Like blood pressure, diabetes, temperature, that kind of

00:57:17   stuff. But they don't have anything for this one. I don't think they would need to do it. I think it

00:57:22   would be a waste, honestly, for them to put another sensor in this one. Because I think that the

00:57:27   design will do more than enough for them. And they can just keep working on a new health sensor.

00:57:32   Not every Apple Watch revision needs to have a health sensor added.

00:57:35   Correct.

00:57:36   Right. There are other things you can do. The design, the display, the size, the materials.

00:57:42   There are so many other things that they can do that they don't need to force a sensor in there

00:57:48   that is not necessarily... When you add a sensor, it actually has to have a purpose. I think that's

00:57:55   actually the argument against that oxygen sensor is that it seems like maybe it's not as great a

00:58:00   thing as they made it out to be. And they're stuck with it now. And if they're going to do

00:58:07   temperature sensor, blood pressure sensor, anything like that, they're going to need...

00:58:13   It's hard.

00:58:16   It needs a story.

00:58:17   And they're going to need to show value for it.

00:58:18   Yeah. I'm sure people are sick of me at this point talking about it. But I was so annoyed

00:58:22   at the presentation and continue to be about the blood oxygen sensor. It's like, "We have this now.

00:58:29   Don't worry about what you can do with it. It's there."

00:58:32   Forget about it.

00:58:33   And it was... There was a story they could have told, but they were worried to tell it,

00:58:38   which made sense of like, "This would actually be useful if you got COVID." But they weren't

00:58:45   confident in telling that story, which I understand and agree with. And probably it was the

00:58:50   wrong time to be telling that story even if it was the point. Don't tell people, "Hey, our new product

00:58:55   is good for this pandemic that we're all dealing with." Because again, if you cost your mind back,

00:59:00   September of 2020 was actually very different to where we are now. I know that it's raging,

00:59:06   but it was different. The mood in the world was different. So you wouldn't have wanted to talk

00:59:11   about it, but it just meant it's like this person that's walking up a mountain is helpful for them.

00:59:16   You will do that. You will go up mountains. So it wasn't a great story.

00:59:21   So that's our watch picks.

00:59:24   Let's watch picks.

00:59:26   So now we get into other. Other basically could include anything. We have all types of hardware,

00:59:32   all types of stagecraft. What is your first pick of this three?

00:59:37   Oh, I am going to go with a little bit of a stagecraft pick and say we are going to return

00:59:44   to Apple's Chip Lab.

00:59:48   Ah, okay. So this would be what? What would we be looking at here? A15?

00:59:54   Uh, yeah, I think so.

00:59:55   Yeah. Okay.

00:59:57   There's going to be a new chip. It's going to be A15 Bionic probably. They're going to get probably

01:00:04   Johnny Shroogee out there to talk about how great it is and cores and flops and all the things,

01:00:11   all the chip things. And they seem to really get excited now about using this idea that there's the

01:00:20   secret chip lab where they've got a bunch of Mac Pros and they're working on chips and then they

01:00:25   talk there about it. So I think that stagecraft will pay off.

01:00:27   It's a visually appealing environment for what is a pretty dry part of the presentation,

01:00:35   right? Which is like we're going to give you some charts that have some big numbers on them.

01:00:41   So for people that don't care, hey, just take a look, feast your eyes on this environment.

01:00:47   So if they do a segment about the chip and they don't go to the chip lab and they have

01:00:51   like Johnny Shroogee standing on a stage somewhere out in a field or something like that,

01:00:55   I don't get this because I think that this is a stagecraft pick that they are going to go back to

01:01:00   the idea of the chip lab. Now it may be not exactly the same set and it may not be like, it may be not

01:01:06   underground but like hidden in the clouds. I don't know, but it'll be like the chip lab where Johnny

01:01:12   Shroogee or somebody else talks about how advanced the chip is.

01:01:15   And of course, Jason Snow and Myke Hurley will really be paying attention to this segment because

01:01:19   this is where we'll find out the first stats for the M1X probably, right? This is the first

01:01:24   indication potentially of what that chip could look like.

01:01:28   I don't think so. I don't think I'm talking about the Mac at all. No.

01:01:31   No, no, no, no. I mean, but like the figures and numbers that they give for this chip.

01:01:35   Oh yes. Sure. This is, I don't know about the M1X. I think the M1X is going to be based on the A14.

01:01:41   It's going to be the M2. This is going to be the chip that is the parent of the M2.

01:01:45   You're right. Yeah. Good call.

01:01:47   Which we'll get next year. But yes, this is the unveiling of the next generation of Apple's chip

01:01:52   design, which will feed into the Macintosh and the iPad as well, right? So it's important for that.

01:01:58   Cool.

01:01:58   I said Macintosh. That's fun. Doesn't that sound authoritative? Macintosh.

01:02:02   Macintosh. Macintosh professional. So this is, yeah, these will be the,

01:02:07   this is the baseline for the, all of the chips and the products next year.

01:02:12   You can put that in your internet Macintosh.

01:02:15   My first pick is new AirPods.

01:02:17   Hey.

01:02:17   It's been a really long time, many years since the baseline of AirPod has been updated. And in fact,

01:02:25   you know, it's really the, the version one to two was a better battery life and it can now do

01:02:31   wireless charging. If you remember the original AirPods, you could just buy a new case when they

01:02:37   brought out the second version because it still would basically work. So, you know, we have some

01:02:44   other picks later on as to what these could be. Maybe one of us will pick them, but I'll just say

01:02:48   it now. And if Jason or I want to pick it, we will. But the rumor being it will be much more inspired

01:02:54   by the design of AirPods Pro. So it doesn't seem like it's going to be an in-ear thing, but the

01:02:59   case will get smaller because the case is really big because the AirPods, the original AirPods,

01:03:04   the stems are really large. So they could definitely do a lot to modernize that design

01:03:09   while still keeping it as a cheaper option. You know, we're not going to get stuff like

01:03:12   noise canceling. It will be like, you know, the really good Bluetooth headphones, but in what

01:03:18   should be a much smaller package, we've probably better battery life. Yeah, it would be great to

01:03:23   see. And they don't need to announce it at this event, but they could, right? Like, but why not?

01:03:30   I think they will. I mean, you know, like we've said this before, AirPods is absolutely massive

01:03:35   for them, right? Like they sell more of these than they do Apple watches, I bet. So even if it

01:03:43   should just give it a couple of minutes like, "Hey, and this works great with our new AirPods

01:03:47   starting at blah, blah, blah, available, blah, blah, blah." Yep. Yep. I think it's a good pick.

01:03:53   I feel like we've made this pick before and it hasn't happened yet, but maybe this time.

01:03:57   All right. My next pick, I'm going to stay with stagecraft and I'm going to say we're going to

01:04:01   see the stage of the Steve Jobs Theater. Interesting. We don't see that as much anymore.

01:04:06   Tim Cook standing on stage. I'm just going to go with that. I feel like the iPhone event is a very

01:04:10   Steve Jobs Theater kind of thing and that we're going to do that. Now, again, I'm just making

01:04:16   guesses here because you got to pick something, but I'm going to throw that out there as stagecraft.

01:04:21   Some of the last events recently, Tim Roaming the Halls was one of them. Tim in the Cafeteria

01:04:28   was another, but I do seem to remember they were on stage, but I know they were for WWDC.

01:04:34   He came out on stage because they had that horrifying moment with all of the Memoji.

01:04:38   Yes. They've done it a couple of times where Tim's been on stage and I just feel like

01:04:43   for the iPhone event, it's the... At least to begin, right?

01:04:47   It's a Steve Jobs Theater thing and so we'll see him do that, but this is just a complete guess

01:04:51   based on stagecraft, but that's part of the fun of the upgrade draft. But we're talking purely about

01:04:56   the stage, right? Because we've had stuff where they've shot inside of the Steve Jobs Theater very

01:05:00   frequently. Oh yeah, upstairs and all that. That's not what I'm talking about. We're talking about

01:05:04   the stage specifically. All right, cool. I think this one makes a lot of sense. I have a stagecraft

01:05:08   pick that I'll do maybe in a minute, but my second pick is that Apple TV+ trailers or promo videos

01:05:15   will be shown. I almost picked this. Apple have a lot of big stuff coming in the next few weeks and

01:05:20   people are starting to pay now finally and have been for a bit, I think. So you've got Morning

01:05:26   Show coming in a couple of weeks. You've got Foundation coming in a couple of weeks. I think

01:05:31   they've got some movies and stuff. Obviously, the series finale of Ted Lasso is not soon, but around

01:05:37   the corner, you know, so they might, I believe we'll see at least something around this time

01:05:45   for Apple TV+. I think that's good. I almost picked that. That was my next pick as well.

01:05:53   Honestly, I would say if they don't do it, I would question them, right? Like if they had the whole

01:05:59   world watching and didn't show them a sizzle reel of all of their new content, I would question that

01:06:05   decision. I think that would be a bad move. Yeah, I think you're right. They gave time to podcast

01:06:10   subscriptions last year, right? Like, you know, so I think for the iPhone event especially,

01:06:18   because fall is a big time for TV, Apple need to integrate at least some of this in there somewhere

01:06:24   and it's really easy to do, right? Like, oh, and this screen is amazing with all of our stuff and

01:06:29   here's some of those shows coming. So we are talking specifically like not just an image,

01:06:35   but we need to see a video with some trailer-y content as part of the presentation.

01:06:40   All right, well, I'm going to triple down on stagecraft.

01:06:43   Final pick now. Final, final pick now.

01:06:45   No, can I, I can't pick another iPhone or a watch pick. I have to pick another. I have to pick stage

01:06:50   craft, right? Or an iPad. Nobody has picked a new iPad, by the way. I'm not entirely convinced that

01:06:55   this is the event for the iPad, but we'll see. I'm going to, this is weird. Let me know if this is

01:07:00   okay. I am going to make a, we see Ted Lasso pick. So here's what this means. They can't just say Ted

01:07:09   Lasso. We need to see Ted Lasso and, and that means we need to see the guy with the mustache.

01:07:15   We need to see him. It could be in a video clip. It could be in a slide, but we see Ted Lasso.

01:07:21   This is a lot.

01:07:22   The character. You think so?

01:07:24   And I, I tell you where they'll do it as well. I will tell you exactly where it's going to happen.

01:07:29   When they have a slide where they show you the new products they announced today,

01:07:34   Ted will be there. Because they do keep doing this, right? Like I see it a lot in their newsroom

01:07:43   stuff. So like the stuff that Apple puts out to press afterwards, Ted finds his way onto a screen

01:07:48   some way. It happens a lot. Like they could honestly, like as part of the iOS 15 part,

01:07:55   you'll see Ted Lasso, right? Like they'll show a screenshot of him.

01:07:59   Oh, you're right. They'll integrate Ted Lasso in some other aspect of it. That's,

01:08:03   that's all my thing is, is that this is not a Apple TV event necessarily,

01:08:07   but Apple is so high on Ted Lasso right now that they just, they can't come down.

01:08:11   Well wouldn't they be if they have, they stumbled across one of the most popular TV shows on at the

01:08:17   moment, right? Like it's award season and he's scooping them up, right? Like honestly,

01:08:22   honestly, like in different times, Ted Lasso is going to be a part of the presentation.

01:08:27   He walks on stage and introduces himself, you know?

01:08:29   Yeah. I mean, I think we're all predicting that at some point they're going to do an in-person

01:08:32   thing if they don't do it in a video where Ted Lasso gives his own pep talk or whatever.

01:08:37   And then maybe that'll happen this time. But if all they do is show the Ted Lasso words,

01:08:43   it does not count. But what I'm picking is we see Ted Lasso himself and they're like, well,

01:08:47   if Jason Sudeikis only appears in the video out of character, not as Ted Lasso,

01:08:52   and we never see Ted Lasso, then I don't get this pick. But I don't think that's going to happen.

01:08:56   We're going to see that smiling face and that mustache and a shade of blue and it's Ted Lasso.

01:09:01   Yep. I want to give Apple a little pitch here. You can feel free to take this one if anyone's

01:09:05   listening. It's like the opening of a keynote and Tim Cook's backstage and he's nervous and

01:09:10   he's not sure about it. And then he bumps into Ted and Ted gives him the pep talk he needs and

01:09:15   he goes out and gives the best presentation of his life and he taps the belief sign.

01:09:19   A little belief sign on the way out onto stage.

01:09:21   Yeah, I know.

01:09:22   You can do it. I believe you. Maybe it's like he tries to say good morning and his voice cracks or

01:09:26   something and Ted pulls him aside, gives him that little pep talk he needs.

01:09:30   Oh, man. Although I'm going to pitch you a slightly alternate one, which is what if we

01:09:33   descend beneath the center of Apple Park to the chip lab, but we pause outside of the chip lab

01:09:39   where Johnny Srugi is a little nervous and then Ted Lasso gives him a pep talk and says,

01:09:43   come on, these chips.

01:09:44   Or what about we're going down and all of a sudden, wait, it's AFC Wimbledon's locker room.

01:09:49   What's happening?

01:09:50   It's Richmond, not Wimbledon.

01:09:51   Why do I do this every time?

01:09:53   There you go. All right. I'm going stagecraft then. The rainbow stage at the center of Apple

01:09:59   Park is seen. This one feels easy to me. All they have to do is fly that drone outside and I've got

01:10:05   it.

01:10:05   That's right. Like they do, they pass by and you're like, oh, look, the rainbow. And yeah,

01:10:10   that's a pretty good one.

01:10:11   So that's it?

01:10:12   Solid.

01:10:13   That's the draft. I feel good about this draft. I think we've got a good competitive fun draft

01:10:17   here. This is so great.

01:10:18   I think so. There were several people in the discord who said you've got it, but those people

01:10:22   are wrong.

01:10:23   Nobody knows, do they? Like, you know, nobody knows because you know why we don't know the

01:10:28   IO Jason of one yet because it hasn't happened.

01:10:31   I, um, I have gone in on iPhone pro differentiation, which is not a given. And also the de-differentiation

01:10:43   of LIDAR, which I think is interesting. Um, and there are some Apple watch picks that I actually

01:10:48   regret not picking now, but you know, so, so I'm just going to have to leave it there. And then I

01:10:53   went all stagecraft in the end. This is a tactical thing. I thought the air pods would probably

01:11:00   happen. There are lots of rumors about iPads. We didn't pick any iPad things. I feel like iPad is

01:11:06   a better match for the Mac and that there is going to be a second event. There could be a new iPad

01:11:11   on Tuesday. There absolutely could be very well could be, but my confidence level in that being

01:11:16   necessary is low. And so I didn't go there. If you want to make two one hour events, you do Apple

01:11:24   watch and phone and you do iPad and Mac. I could very well happen, but I don't feel as confident

01:11:33   in that, especially if one of these things is that iPad mini, they will want to spend some time with

01:11:38   that. And I don't know if you've got that time. Right. And especially when you've got, um,

01:11:44   presumably unless you've got a Mac thing that's so packed and I just don't think they will,

01:11:49   it's going to be, you know, laptops and a Mac mini. It's not going to be the new big

01:11:54   iMac that by all accounts that is coming next year. So they don't have a packed Mac event.

01:11:59   So having it be in the grand tradition of Apple late, you know, later in the fall events,

01:12:04   iPad and Mac together, Apple watch and iPhone together in September makes sense to me. So

01:12:09   although I think it's totally possible that there'll be an iPad on Tuesday, neither of us

01:12:13   were really willing to pick it. And I think that says something. So that's the draft. We will be

01:12:19   talking in upgrade plus a little bit more about the draft and maybe commiserating some of our picks,

01:12:24   celebrating some of our picks. If you want to hear longer ad free episodes of upgrade, we even do

01:12:29   bonus content on our bonus episodes. You can go to get upgrade plus.com and you can sign up. Thank

01:12:33   you to everybody that does. Don't forget to donate stjuit.org/relay, whatever money you can. Go into

01:12:40   St. Jude Children's Research Hospital and we can fight childhood cancer together. We're doing this

01:12:45   throughout all of September. We will be back on Tuesday, obviously. So we will be recording,

01:12:52   I think this time, literally as soon as we can after the ending. This changes sometimes. And,

01:12:59   but our plan right now is the event ends. We take a few moments. We collect our thoughts.

01:13:05   15 minutes maybe after the event ends, but that's what we're going to try to do to be live. And you

01:13:10   can listen live, relay.fm/live. And then of course, as soon as we're done, Myke will do his magical

01:13:16   editing thing and we'll get that episode posted in the podcast feed. As soon as we can. As soon as we

01:13:22   can on Tuesday. So we'll, we'll be there for your postgame show for sure. We endeavor to be the

01:13:27   first podcast in your feed. And we will be endeavoring as always to achieve that. So,

01:13:33   yeah, look out for that on Tuesday and we'll be giving our hot fresh takes on whatever it is

01:13:39   Apple does announce. Thank you so much for listening to this week's bonus draft episode

01:13:45   of Upgrade. As we say goodbye to the Summer of Fun. Thank you to Smile and Pingdom for

01:13:50   their support of this week's episode. And most of all, to you for listening.

01:13:54   Speak to you on Tuesday. Say goodbye Jason Snow. See you Tuesday everybody.

01:13:59   [Music]