329: The Stale Hot Dog Industry


00:00:00   [Music]

00:00:08   From Relay FM, this is Upgrade, episode 329, and today's show is brought to you by DoorDash, KiwiCo, and Uni Pizza Ovens.

00:00:17   My name is Myke Hurley and I am joined by the one and only Jason Snow. Hi, Jason Snow.

00:00:22   It's me! Me, the one and only me. Hello, Myke Hurley. It's good to join the one and only Myke Hurley.

00:00:29   Do you know what I have realized? I've realized this because I edit our Upgrade Plus, right?

00:00:34   So I go in and I remove the ads from the episode. So when I do that, I get to hear a lot when I start a new topic with you, right?

00:00:43   And I have noticed that I typically will say like Jason Snow and then introduce the topic.

00:00:50   I don't know why I call you Jason Snow all the time. I don't know. I don't know either. It's just a thing.

00:00:55   You're one of those two-name people to me, you know? Like that's just like a thing. Interesting.

00:01:01   I don't know why I do it. I don't ever think of you as Jason Snow. I'm one of those two-name people.

00:01:08   I think when we have kind of regular conversation, I call you Jason Snow. No, I don't. I call you Jason.

00:01:15   See, I just did it then. So who knows? Who knows? I don't know why you do that, Myke Hurley. Very strange.

00:01:20   Who could tell? Who could tell? We have a hashtag Jason Snow talk question from Sir Hat Who Arts.

00:01:27   I'm one of those hashtag two-name people talk.

00:01:29   Which new color do you want or which color should return to a model of iPhone, iPad, or MacBook?

00:01:38   So if you could choose Jason, which color would you pick to appear on a future product?

00:01:45   I just bought a space gray MacBook Air. And I've said this before. I'll say it again. I want a blue computer.

00:01:54   I want a blue computer. Maybe an orange computer would be good too. I would like colors to return to the computers.

00:02:01   Like the MacBook Air would be fun. Just blue anodized aluminum. Do it. It's done.

00:02:06   I would take that in an iPad as well. And they already make a blue iPhone. So I'm pretty good there. Yeah.

00:02:13   Yeah. But I just and other colors are available, right? You know, if you like green, sure. Apple can make a green.

00:02:18   I'm not going to use a green computer, but you could and that would be fine. I just think, again, I just want colors.

00:02:24   But if I had to choose, blue and orange are going to be the ones I choose because I like those colors the best.

00:02:28   Everybody gets their own colors. I like those.

00:02:31   I'm going to cheat a little bit. I want them to bring back the nanochromatic color line.

00:02:39   Which was a, I think, Apple's favorite selection of colors, which was for one of the iPod Nanos.

00:02:47   And the campaign around it was nanochromatic. That was the wording that they used.

00:02:52   And they had a black and a silver, but they had a purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, pink and red.

00:02:58   And they were fantastic colors. They kind of covered all of the classic iPod Mini ones and added a few more in.

00:03:07   Pumped up the vibrancy in all of them. I really loved those colors.

00:03:13   And it's also, they made a great ad for that, actually, which I will put in the show notes in case you want to see it.

00:03:19   But yeah, that's the colors I would love to see personally. Really go for it.

00:03:26   That's a lot of colors.

00:03:28   It's a lot of colors, but why not, Jason?

00:03:30   I'm fine with it. I don't disagree. I love it.

00:03:33   If you would like to send in a question to help us open a show, just send in a tweet with the hashtag #snowtalk.

00:03:41   Or if you're in the Relay FM members Discord, question mark snowtalk.

00:03:45   We'll get you into our document for future selection.

00:03:49   I have some follow up for you, Jason Snell.

00:03:52   Oh god, I'm so in my head about that now. I don't know why I said it. I knew I did it.

00:03:57   If I would have just kept it to myself, I wouldn't be thinking about it so much.

00:04:00   But here we are.

00:04:01   Applications are open for the App Store Small Business Program, which is something we spoke about last week.

00:04:07   And Apple have basically opened the program up now so people can get their applications in time.

00:04:13   So all of their revenue will be counted at the 15% cut from January 1st.

00:04:18   They published an FAQ on the website.

00:04:22   What I like is most of the frequently asked questions that I have seen are not at all dealt with

00:04:30   in the frequently asked questions section, which is funny to me.

00:04:34   One of the main ones being something we spoke about a bunch, which is like,

00:04:39   what would you do or what are you going to do if you get close to that million dollar line

00:04:43   and will you pull your app and all that kind of stuff.

00:04:46   I think people were hoping Apple would provide a little bit more clarity to try and tidy that up.

00:04:51   But they haven't and I don't think they will.

00:04:54   I think that this is a thing that just needs to be put back on the developer.

00:04:58   You plan your business that way.

00:05:00   And I think that's kind of the way that Apple is treating it.

00:05:03   - Yeah, I think so.

00:05:05   - Right, like you know it's a thing, right?

00:05:07   So you kind of just have to deal with it.

00:05:10   I don't know.

00:05:11   - If you are one of those developers, and they're probably not a lot,

00:05:14   who are right at the one million line,

00:05:17   yeah, you're going to have to figure out a strategy there.

00:05:19   Do you, I don't know, sell one of your apps?

00:05:22   Do you buy some apps and just go for it?

00:05:24   - I don't know what happens there, but it's an interesting problem to have

00:05:30   and I feel for those companies that are in that little cutoff area.

00:05:34   - But I would also say making close to a million dollars a year is a great problem to have.

00:05:40   - Yeah, I mean it depends on the business, right?

00:05:41   If that's a couple of people, it's great.

00:05:43   If it's 10 people, it's not great.

00:05:47   - Yep, but if it's 10 people and you're making a million dollars a year,

00:05:50   you have a lot more problems than Apple's 15% cut.

00:05:53   - True, true story.

00:05:54   We have one more rumor, kind of a clarification really for Ming-Chi Kuo.

00:05:58   So Kuo issued another kind of note in the last few days,

00:06:04   kind of revising some of the predictions that we spoke about last time.

00:06:08   So the two new MacBook Pro models that Ming-Chi Kuo has been talking about launching in 2021

00:06:16   will now both feature mini LED displays, Kuo is saying, which is interesting.

00:06:22   We don't have any refinements on timelines,

00:06:26   but it seems like it could potentially,

00:06:28   these products might come sooner rather than later

00:06:30   as Kuo has increased his forecast for how many of these products will get sold in 2021.

00:06:38   So there's a couple of reasons you do that.

00:06:39   One, if they're going to be really popular, which could be it,

00:06:41   or two, if you're selling them sooner in the year old and later in the year.

00:06:45   But these products getting mini LED is cool.

00:06:48   It seemed possible, but this is now kind of drawing a line there.

00:06:51   But there was one other note, which was of great interest,

00:06:55   saying that there would be a more affordable MacBook Air

00:06:58   with a mini LED display on sale this year as well.

00:07:01   - What does that mean?

00:07:04   More affordable.

00:07:04   It's already Apple's most affordable laptop, right?

00:07:08   At which lowest price is what we mean by more affordable.

00:07:11   I wonder what he means here.

00:07:13   But yeah, does that mean the MacBook Air is going to be $899 or $799 or something?

00:07:17   That would be great in terms of reaching a broader audience

00:07:21   and selling MacBook Airs.

00:07:23   Interesting contrast with also adding a mini LED screen at that time,

00:07:26   because this is mini LED being not OLED,

00:07:30   but more capable of doing kind of OLED-like quality

00:07:34   in terms of contrast and HDR kind of stuff.

00:07:39   I don't know.

00:07:40   Interesting starting to take focus.

00:07:42   And I know we're going to talk a little bit more about another report

00:07:45   later on about this.

00:07:46   But 2021, now that 2020 is almost over,

00:07:49   I guess it's time to start talking about 2021

00:07:51   and what's going to happen.

00:07:53   - We're basically in 2021 now at this point.

00:07:57   - Pretty close.

00:07:58   I mean, I don't know, Myke, are we?

00:08:00   I mean, do we really know for sure

00:08:03   that Apple's done releasing new products?

00:08:07   Do we really know that?

00:08:09   - No.

00:08:10   So this is fun.

00:08:10   This is weird.

00:08:12   Okay, so depending on when you're listening to this episode,

00:08:15   this might make varying levels of sense.

00:08:19   So there is a rumor circulating this week,

00:08:23   boy, in the past few days,

00:08:24   that Apple will be releasing something

00:08:27   on Tuesday the 8th at 5.30 AM Pacific Time.

00:08:32   So depending on when you're listening to this show,

00:08:35   you will even know if or if not this has happened.

00:08:38   This came from a couple of different sources

00:08:40   as a reliable Twitter leaker who goes by the handle

00:08:43   I love to dream, who's been talking about

00:08:46   there being some kind of Christmas surprise.

00:08:48   And then there was an internal memo to the Apple Care team,

00:08:52   which was picked up by 9to5Mac and others,

00:08:55   that is saying that Apple Care representatives need to,

00:08:58   quote, "Prepare for new product SKUs,

00:09:01   new or updated product descriptions,

00:09:03   and new or updated product pricing."

00:09:07   So I thought, considering I reckon most of our audience

00:09:12   are probably listening to this after it's happened,

00:09:15   that it would be fun if we made predictions

00:09:18   of what we thought that this might be.

00:09:20   - Okay.

00:09:21   We are all waiting for an upgrade

00:09:23   to the Apple TV box itself, right?

00:09:25   Everybody's been waiting for that.

00:09:27   Seems like a strange time to do it,

00:09:29   but I mean, on the other hand, maybe it doesn't matter.

00:09:32   But I don't know if they could use it

00:09:35   to promote Apple TV+ or something.

00:09:37   We've got fitness still to come,

00:09:40   and Apple TV is one of the ways you can integrate

00:09:45   with fitness, so I wonder if they might be doing something

00:09:49   as a sort of one-two punch, so you get an Apple TV

00:09:52   and you get the Fitness+ thing.

00:09:55   I don't know, it's possible.

00:09:56   It's been hanging out there,

00:09:57   the prospect of new Apple TV hardware for a while,

00:10:00   if they've got a story to tell.

00:10:01   It's always what we say about Apple.

00:10:04   It's about the story that they're trying to tell.

00:10:05   A lot of times, product releases and the timing

00:10:08   and what gets released together is about Apple

00:10:10   trying to tell a story, not just say,

00:10:13   here's a new box to buy.

00:10:14   - I also still think it could be possible

00:10:17   that it will be AirPods related.

00:10:19   - It could, for sure.

00:10:20   And there are all sorts of other wacky things.

00:10:22   I mean, Christmas surprise.

00:10:23   I mean, it could be over-the-ear AirPods,

00:10:27   it could be AirTags, it could be all the products

00:10:29   that they haven't shipped that we say,

00:10:31   why are they not shipping?

00:10:32   Or it could be something unexpected

00:10:34   and not what we traditionally think of as a product, right?

00:10:38   - I think whatever it is,

00:10:40   if you listen to this before Tuesday

00:10:43   to kind of set people's expectations,

00:10:45   it's gonna be a small thing, whatever it is, I think.

00:10:49   Because there's no event.

00:10:50   I haven't heard anyone that knows anyone

00:10:54   that knows anyone that has any products, right?

00:10:57   Like this seems like it could be,

00:10:59   if it's gonna be anything,

00:11:01   I would say it's accessory related

00:11:03   or kind of small in that regard.

00:11:06   - I think that's right.

00:11:07   - Like small revision to a thing.

00:11:09   Like Apple TV's not gonna be that different

00:11:12   no matter what they do to it, I expect.

00:11:14   - Well, it might even be more about an upgrade for hardware

00:11:18   and then the lower end hardware changes price.

00:11:20   And it's really the story is that you can now get

00:11:22   into the Apple TV for this price

00:11:24   or it's little stuff like that or it's an accessory product.

00:11:28   I think that's right.

00:11:29   - Anything else though?

00:11:30   Any other wild predictions you might wanna make?

00:11:32   - I'm gonna make a dumb prediction

00:11:33   based on the Snell Talk question earlier

00:11:36   and say, "Product read, MacBook Air.

00:11:40   Ho, ho, ho."

00:11:41   - Interesting.

00:11:44   - Something like that is what I was getting at

00:11:47   with things that aren't quite products

00:11:50   but are announcements, something like that

00:11:52   where there was like a holiday edition of something

00:11:55   or something like that.

00:11:56   That's another way you could go

00:11:57   and just roll something out.

00:12:00   I don't know.

00:12:00   - My only other would be some kind of MagSafe battery case.

00:12:05   - Sure.

00:12:06   - 'Cause that's the MagSafe stuff,

00:12:09   or sorry, the battery case stuff and headphones stuff,

00:12:12   like AirPods and stuff.

00:12:13   These are things they have released late in the year

00:12:16   with just press releases in the past

00:12:17   if there's even a press release at all.

00:12:20   But I would love to see a product read more

00:12:23   and they just did just double down

00:12:25   on their product read campaign stuff, right?

00:12:28   Apple just released a big thing about that.

00:12:30   Who knows?

00:12:34   Voting nominations for the 2020 upgrade is still open.

00:12:39   We've had over 600 upgrade-ians

00:12:42   making their nominations so far.

00:12:44   Make sure you join them by going to upgradees.vote

00:12:48   and there'll be a link in the show notes

00:12:49   to the nomination form.

00:12:51   Go in, select the things that you want to nominate,

00:12:54   maybe if your favorite apps, your favorite media,

00:12:57   some of your favorite tech stories of the year,

00:12:59   your favorite products of the year.

00:13:01   You can vote for as many of these categories as you wish.

00:13:04   So please go and check it out

00:13:06   and help us prepare for the seventh annual upgradees,

00:13:10   which is going to be happening on Monday, December 28th,

00:13:15   is going to be the seventh annual upgradees.

00:13:19   So we'll either close voting,

00:13:23   either the 18th or sometime in Christmas week.

00:13:28   So make sure that you get it in now.

00:13:30   Probably on next week's episode,

00:13:32   I'll announce the closing date for votes.

00:13:34   It kind of depends on how many we have,

00:13:37   because the more votes we have,

00:13:38   the longer it takes for me to bring it together.

00:13:41   So, you know, it's kind of like,

00:13:44   I would really love it if everybody could get their votes in

00:13:46   sooner rather than later

00:13:47   so I know exactly when to close voting.

00:13:49   But that's kind of,

00:13:51   we know it's going to be on the 28th though.

00:13:53   So you have that to look forward to,

00:13:55   to round out your year.

00:13:58   - End on a high note.

00:13:59   - Indeed. How much higher a note could it be

00:14:02   than the upgradees?

00:14:03   - Not higher than that, Myke Hurley.

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00:17:13   So we're gonna do a bit of a extended upstream,

00:17:18   I think, for this week,

00:17:19   more in talking about a large topic rather than news,

00:17:24   which is that HBO Max is getting all the movies.

00:17:27   All the movies.

00:17:29   WarnerMedia announced that all of their 2021 movies

00:17:32   will appear on HBO Max

00:17:34   on the intended cinematic release dates.

00:17:36   I worded this very particularly,

00:17:39   'cause I kept seeing this headline,

00:17:41   which was very funny and confusing,

00:17:42   which was that WarnerMedia would release

00:17:45   all of their 2021 movies simultaneously on HBO Max,

00:17:49   which makes it sound like all the movies

00:17:51   are coming at the same time.

00:17:52   - Wow, binge watch.

00:17:54   17 movies, we're dropping them on April 4th

00:17:57   and have fun kids.

00:17:59   - One month, do it.

00:18:01   But no, they're gonna be coming out on the same days

00:18:04   that they either will be in cinemas

00:18:06   or expected to be in cinemas,

00:18:08   depending on where you are in the world.

00:18:10   Each of these movies will spend 31 days on the service

00:18:14   from when they are premiered.

00:18:16   This will be at no extra charge for HBO Max subscribers.

00:18:20   The 17 movies include "The Suicide Squad,"

00:18:23   "The Matrix 4," "Dune," "Godzilla vs. Kong,"

00:18:26   "Space Jam and New Legacy," "Tom and Jerry,"

00:18:29   "Mortal Kombat," "In the Heights,"

00:18:31   which is a musical from Limon Miranda turned into a movie,

00:18:35   and "The Many Saints of Newark,"

00:18:36   which is the Sopranos prequel,

00:18:38   which is a movie I didn't know existed

00:18:40   and I'm very excited about.

00:18:41   - Yeah, this is huge news.

00:18:45   The, it's complicated, right?

00:18:48   And there are a lot of simple takes out there,

00:18:50   and I think upstream listeners know that it's complicated

00:18:54   because we've walked through so many of these points before.

00:18:57   There are a lot of things going on here, right?

00:18:59   So first off is the destruction of,

00:19:02   especially in the US, the theatrical market.

00:19:06   It's gone.

00:19:08   And with the current COVID-19 stats,

00:19:10   it's not gonna come back very fast.

00:19:13   Even with vaccinations,

00:19:14   I think what they said is they were looking at calendar 2021

00:19:17   and trying to guess what percentage of normal

00:19:21   would the box office be in 2021?

00:19:26   And even if there are places that are coming back

00:19:29   and vaccines are going out and things are going down,

00:19:32   they try to imagine, well,

00:19:33   how many people are gonna go to a movie theater

00:19:35   in the summer of 2021?

00:19:36   And the answer is still like 50%, 30%, 60%.

00:19:40   I don't know, but it's certainly not 100% or 90%

00:19:43   or even 80%, I would think.

00:19:44   I think it's gonna be a long build.

00:19:47   And I think they decided to just say,

00:19:49   we're gonna write off 2021 theatrical.

00:19:51   There will be some, and we will play to whatever is there,

00:19:56   but they've decided that they're going to instead

00:20:00   use their 2021 slate plus "Wonder Woman" to build HBO Max,

00:20:05   which they want, they've invested a lot of money in,

00:20:08   and they want to be a real player in the streaming space.

00:20:12   And they've had a struggle launching it.

00:20:15   I think the stat that I saw that was the biggest struggle

00:20:17   is that some enormous number of Americans with cable

00:20:21   pay for HBO and they get HBO Max

00:20:25   with their cable subscription to HBO.

00:20:27   They get it, I get it.

00:20:29   I pay Comcast for HBO and I get HBO Max.

00:20:34   There's a huge number of those people,

00:20:36   like 60, 70%, I forget the number, it's very large,

00:20:39   who have never signed up for HBO Max.

00:20:43   So that's a challenge, right?

00:20:45   Like they can't even get people for whom HBO Max is free

00:20:49   to make an effort to get it.

00:20:52   So this is an interesting move, right?

00:20:55   'Cause this is HBO and Warner saying,

00:21:00   if you wanna watch all of these movies,

00:21:03   all you have to do is sign up for this streaming service

00:21:05   and we're gonna roll out full-on theatrical releases

00:21:09   of movies every month from Christmas 2020 through 2021

00:21:14   and use that as a driver to make HBO Max more appealing.

00:21:20   And then once they're there, the whole idea is,

00:21:22   yeah, some people are gonna just subscribe for a month

00:21:26   and then cancel, but a lot of people won't.

00:21:28   And that's the goal is to build up people

00:21:30   and let them see the rest of the service

00:21:32   and grow HBO Max and set it off in a direction.

00:21:35   And so they're gonna spend a lot of money

00:21:36   basically buying out the theatrical side

00:21:41   and losing money on these movies, frankly,

00:21:45   in order to build up what they hope long-term

00:21:49   is this big subscription base for HBO Max.

00:21:53   So it's a huge move, but the pandemic makes it

00:21:58   an easier move than it would have ever been.

00:22:00   Like you and I have talked before about the question of,

00:22:04   how do you do this?

00:22:05   How do you make the move and say,

00:22:06   we have to be more aggressive with streaming?

00:22:08   And I'm not sure if theatrical releases

00:22:11   make as much economic sense as they used to.

00:22:13   It's a very difficult thing.

00:22:14   It's a lot easier when you look at calendar 2021

00:22:17   and say, there's no way that theaters are going to be,

00:22:19   in the US at least, are gonna be any, even a fraction.

00:22:23   And do we wanna hold all of our movies till 2022?

00:22:25   Well, we don't, and we just launched HBO Max.

00:22:27   So now is the time, let's just do it.

00:22:29   And it's an aggressive move

00:22:30   and they're gonna spend a lot of money on this,

00:22:32   but if they really want HBO Max to be a thing,

00:22:35   I think they need to do stuff like this.

00:22:36   So I understand why they're doing it.

00:22:38   - There will be no more free trials of HBO Max.

00:22:43   It was only a seven day trial anyway,

00:22:46   but they've nixed that before Wonder Woman comes out.

00:22:51   You know, just to make, look, I get that.

00:22:53   It's like, yeah, it's probably a good idea.

00:22:56   - Yeah, no, it makes sense.

00:22:58   This is their strategy now.

00:22:59   This is their, not their original HBO Max launch strategy,

00:23:02   but it's the one they found,

00:23:03   which is we got a movie studio,

00:23:05   we have a pandemic where movies are not really able

00:23:07   to be released in our home market.

00:23:09   We're just gonna roll this out

00:23:11   and we're going to use our movie studios releases

00:23:14   to drive subscriptions to our streaming service.

00:23:17   And they have the power to do that because they own both.

00:23:20   And we are in a moment where they can do that.

00:23:24   It's interesting too, 'cause you know,

00:23:25   some of the theaters have pushed back

00:23:27   and complained about it and said,

00:23:29   well, we don't know if we'll carry their movies anymore

00:23:31   and things like that, which makes me roll my eyes

00:23:33   a little bit because one side has all the power here

00:23:36   and it's the studios, it's not the theaters.

00:23:38   - It's like, there's such, it's such like reverse thinking

00:23:42   too, where it's like, it would be damaging to us.

00:23:45   We're upset because it's damaging to us

00:23:47   if you pull your movies out of our theaters.

00:23:51   So now we're also going to ban those movies

00:23:53   from our theaters.

00:23:54   It's like, we'll see you're double damaging yourself.

00:23:57   - Also, they're not pulling the movies

00:23:58   out of the theaters, right?

00:23:59   If there are theaters exhibiting the movies,

00:24:00   they will exhibit them in that window

00:24:03   and people can choose to go to the theaters,

00:24:04   which seems like not the worst model.

00:24:06   Like you can watch it in home or you can go out

00:24:09   to a big movie theater if you're comfortable

00:24:11   and you want to see it on a big screen with great sound

00:24:13   and all of that and have that positive experience,

00:24:15   you can do that.

00:24:16   But the truth is they, you know,

00:24:19   they had to make this move, I think.

00:24:21   I think this is a smart move.

00:24:22   I think it's a gamble, but given where theatrical is

00:24:26   and is going to be in the near future.

00:24:28   And it does call into question the whole,

00:24:30   like what is the movie theater world look like

00:24:34   in let's say 2022 as things come back,

00:24:37   especially in the US.

00:24:38   So I think the answer is very different

00:24:40   from what it looked like in 2019.

00:24:43   That's just going to be a fact.

00:24:46   I'm unclear, I'm not entirely convinced

00:24:48   that this model is going to persist.

00:24:50   HBO says it's not going to persist.

00:24:52   Warner says, this is just for 2021.

00:24:54   I think what we get to in 2022 is going to be different

00:24:57   from 2019, but I'm not sure it's going to look like this

00:25:01   where giant hundreds of millions of dollar blockbusters

00:25:05   can be seen on day one in a movie theater

00:25:08   or on your streaming service.

00:25:10   I'm not sure that's where they end up.

00:25:12   Maybe it is, but certainly the windows are going to be

00:25:16   a lot smaller for if there's any window at all.

00:25:20   - I think the genie's out of the bottle now.

00:25:22   - I think so.

00:25:23   - I think it's going to be particularly interesting

00:25:26   that later this week Disney have their investors call.

00:25:29   And so you would expect them to do or say something,

00:25:34   which is also along these lines.

00:25:37   I don't think by any stretch of the imagination,

00:25:39   they are going to do what Warner have done.

00:25:42   You know, you've got, it's a very different mix

00:25:46   you've got here, right?

00:25:47   Like Disney Plus has like 70 million subscribers,

00:25:50   so they don't need to try and get more, right?

00:25:54   Like yes.

00:25:55   HBO Max I think is like eight.

00:25:56   - Well, Disney built its service on that library, right?

00:26:01   Especially the stuff that they had previously withheld

00:26:04   and they put it all in.

00:26:05   And that was at the time we talked about it,

00:26:08   kind of a big move for Disney to be like,

00:26:09   there's no Disney Vault.

00:26:10   The Disney Vault is now Disney Plus.

00:26:12   It's all there.

00:26:14   And that was a big step for them.

00:26:16   But Warner doesn't have quite that, that cache.

00:26:21   And then they of course have contracts

00:26:23   where they've sold a bunch of their stuff

00:26:25   out to other services

00:26:26   and then it'll be years before they get it back.

00:26:28   But this is something they can try.

00:26:30   - But I think that once, so here's my question.

00:26:35   If a studio makes this decision,

00:26:38   so Warner has made this decision,

00:26:39   Disney is doing, is dipping their toe in the water, right?

00:26:43   Like they have Mulan, which you could pay for.

00:26:46   They have Soul, which is going to be available for free.

00:26:49   I'm sure they'll have others.

00:26:52   If you start doing this, can you stop doing this?

00:26:57   - I think, I mean, so I just said,

00:27:01   who knows what 2022 looks like,

00:27:02   but I think it will be very hard.

00:27:05   I think we're gonna, and maybe I'm wishcasting a little bit,

00:27:08   but I think the theatrical model of the future

00:27:12   is going to be that movies are available in theaters,

00:27:15   but exclusivity is either not an issue or a minor issue.

00:27:20   That the reason you go to a movie theater

00:27:22   is because it's a night out and the screen is huge

00:27:25   and the sound is good and they'll bring you food and drink

00:27:28   and you can have a good time with your friends

00:27:29   and you're enjoying a movie with an audience.

00:27:31   And it's a theatrical experience as opposed to,

00:27:36   and again, I apologize

00:27:38   if there are any movie theater operators out there,

00:27:40   but like so much of the movie theater experience

00:27:43   in modern times is lousy.

00:27:46   It's literally, you can't see this anywhere else.

00:27:49   So we've provided a crappy theater

00:27:51   with not a very good screen and not very good sound.

00:27:54   And it's sort of an unpleasant experience.

00:27:57   You want to escape as quickly as you can,

00:28:00   but because we're the only game in town,

00:28:02   you have to come and give us money

00:28:03   in order to watch this movie.

00:28:05   And that was a bad experience already.

00:28:07   And I think going forward, it's not gonna be good enough.

00:28:10   And movie theaters that do the bare minimum

00:28:12   are not going to make it.

00:28:14   And we're gonna end up in a situation

00:28:16   where people will still go to movie theaters,

00:28:18   but it won't be driven by this artificial exclusivity

00:28:23   of the only place you can see it

00:28:25   is in our little lousy theater.

00:28:28   That it'll be, you know, you'll have to choose to go.

00:28:31   The movie theater will be a place

00:28:32   you need to want to go to it.

00:28:35   I think that's gonna be the big difference

00:28:36   because I do think it will be very hard

00:28:37   for the audience too.

00:28:39   Like I'm gonna watch "Wonder Woman" on Christmas day

00:28:44   in 4K HDR 'cause they upgraded HBO Max

00:28:47   is finally gonna get 4K HDR support on my 65 inch TV.

00:28:52   And not everybody has a big TV like that

00:28:54   and everybody's got the difference,

00:28:55   but like people have way better stuff

00:28:57   even if it's on your phone.

00:28:59   Like honestly, sometimes the experience is gonna be bigger

00:29:02   and better in all of these cases

00:29:04   than it would necessarily be in a lousy movie theater.

00:29:06   It's gonna be hard to go back.

00:29:07   - I am a at home movie person.

00:29:13   That is my decision.

00:29:15   I will go to the cinema maybe once or twice a year

00:29:19   to catch that movie that I otherwise feel

00:29:24   I couldn't wait for.

00:29:26   It's typically a big Disney blockbuster

00:29:28   and it's the case of like, well, if you don't see it now

00:29:31   everyone's gonna spoil it for you.

00:29:33   - Right.

00:29:34   - So if you care about this property,

00:29:37   you should go and see it.

00:29:38   And frankly, I'm not sure that that is a relationship

00:29:44   that I care too much about.

00:29:46   It doesn't really seem like that's a thing,

00:29:50   like that particular reason is enough

00:29:51   to make me care about going to the theater.

00:29:54   Like I appreciate that this is obviously a huge industry

00:29:58   and there are a lot of people who are struggling,

00:30:01   but it is an industry that needs to change

00:30:04   and has needed to change for decades

00:30:07   because everybody knows they're too expensive,

00:30:11   they charge you too much money for all of the things

00:30:14   that they want you to buy and you're kind of,

00:30:16   and they actively disallow you from bringing your own food

00:30:20   and drink in.

00:30:22   - Well, that's how they make their money,

00:30:23   but here's the problem with it is

00:30:25   the experience isn't very good.

00:30:26   That's the truth of it is.

00:30:28   Not only is it expensive, but it's expensive

00:30:29   for one of those hot dogs

00:30:30   that's on the little metal roller thing

00:30:32   for a million years. - Exactly.

00:30:33   - And stuff like that.

00:30:34   - But you go to the really nice boutique cinemas

00:30:38   where they have food.

00:30:39   - Great.

00:30:40   - You and I and a bunch of people we know

00:30:42   for your bachelor party, we went to Avengers Infinity War

00:30:47   at Alamo Drafthouse in Austin.

00:30:50   - Talk about Obama.

00:30:52   - We sat together and we got, well, yeah, I know.

00:30:55   We knew what was coming, we'd already seen it.

00:30:57   But we're an audience and we got food and we have beer

00:31:01   and it was so much fun.

00:31:03   It's like I would love, I would do that.

00:31:06   I would do that kind of experience a lot,

00:31:09   but the warmed over hot dog and kind of crappy popcorn

00:31:14   for a lot of money to sit in a kind of badly cleaned

00:31:19   threadbare movie theater that isn't,

00:31:22   and the sound isn't very good, it's not the best.

00:31:26   So yeah, I'm just gonna say it.

00:31:29   I think those kinds of movie theaters

00:31:31   need to go out of business.

00:31:32   And I think that the movie theater industry

00:31:34   needs to focus on a better experience.

00:31:36   And then I do think people will pay to go see it

00:31:40   as a better experience.

00:31:41   But I think that that's what they're going to need

00:31:43   to try to do.

00:31:44   Now, maybe there will be a window.

00:31:45   Like I could see it.

00:31:47   'Cause you think about marketing too.

00:31:49   You make as a movie theater or as a movie studio,

00:31:51   you make this huge investment in marketing for your product.

00:31:55   And then the windows are so long that you've got to make

00:31:57   that investment again when it goes to streaming

00:32:00   or when it's available for rent on all the rental platforms,

00:32:05   the video on demand platforms, it's a lot.

00:32:07   So one of the arguments about making the window way smaller

00:32:12   is you only ever have to do one marketing campaign.

00:32:14   So you say Wonder Woman 84 or The Matrix 4,

00:32:18   and maybe it's coming to theaters and everybody knows

00:32:22   that it's in theaters exclusively for a week or two weeks.

00:32:25   But that's it.

00:32:26   And then it's on streaming and you can get it there.

00:32:29   - I agree with you that that seems like probably

00:32:31   the way it's gonna go.

00:32:32   But I think even that kills the theater industry.

00:32:35   Because who cares enough?

00:32:37   How many movies really do people care enough about

00:32:42   that they will go to?

00:32:44   Now, the idea of the movie theater for dates,

00:32:47   for things for friends to do, that kind of thing in theory

00:32:50   will continue, but I'm just not sure that this industry

00:32:55   is one of the industries that continues

00:33:02   in the post-COVID world.

00:33:04   Like restaurants, no problem.

00:33:07   Once the restaurant industry can get back on its feet again,

00:33:12   people are not going to stop going to restaurants.

00:33:15   I just don't believe that.

00:33:17   There will be changes to their industry,

00:33:18   like something that's happened in a lot of metropolitan

00:33:20   areas and I hope continues is like a similar idea,

00:33:23   which is they will send you their ingredients

00:33:25   and you cook it at home, which is like,

00:33:28   I guess is like the only link analogous that I can make

00:33:31   of like have it at home or have it in the place.

00:33:34   But it's still nicer to have it in the place

00:33:36   because the restaurant industry is based around

00:33:39   providing you a nice experience and taking all of the work

00:33:43   away from you, right?

00:33:44   But the majority of the movie, the cinema theater industry

00:33:49   is providing you that not great experience,

00:33:56   but locking away the thing that you want.

00:33:58   And the only way you can get it for months

00:34:01   is to go to them.

00:34:02   And I'm not sure that that is a thing that's going to happen.

00:34:07   I really don't think so.

00:34:10   - Yeah, and it's going to have to,

00:34:17   obviously it's gonna have to work itself out

00:34:20   and there's gonna be pain and there's gonna be failure

00:34:22   and there's gonna be success and the industry

00:34:24   is going to kind of like change.

00:34:25   But I think the truth is you would never invent an industry

00:34:29   to look like this, you wouldn't.

00:34:32   - No, it's one that adapts over time, becomes greedy.

00:34:35   - In the chat room pointing out the stale hot dog industry

00:34:38   and the people who make the little rollers,

00:34:40   it's gonna be a tough time for them.

00:34:41   It's gonna be different and there are different things,

00:34:46   right, like if you are in a small town

00:34:48   or something like that, like you're not gonna have

00:34:50   that super high quality theater necessarily.

00:34:53   Although I grew up in a small town

00:34:55   and we had a five screen movie theater.

00:34:58   Originally it was a two screen movie theater

00:34:59   and they added three tiny awful screens.

00:35:02   And I keep thinking like maybe in the end the story is

00:35:07   that that movie theater ends up having two better screens

00:35:12   so people can have a really nice experience.

00:35:15   But the other thing is it does provide access to movies

00:35:17   and streaming has already done this,

00:35:19   to movies that you wouldn't otherwise see

00:35:20   'cause you don't have a movie theater nearby

00:35:22   or you don't have a good movie theater nearby

00:35:24   and now you can just watch the movie instead

00:35:28   of this weird monopoly where the cheap movie theater owner

00:35:33   for your town has two screens and they're the only place

00:35:37   you can see the latest Marvel movie for six months

00:35:40   and so you have to go and give them money,

00:35:43   not because the experience is good,

00:35:44   but because they're the ones who have the exclusive on it

00:35:47   and that is not great either.

00:35:49   So the problem that we detailed before is

00:35:52   if you don't have a theatrical market that is driving sales

00:35:56   and we live in an era where we can talk about

00:35:58   how bad the movie theater industry is for customers

00:36:01   in so many different ways,

00:36:02   but we also live in an era where movies,

00:36:05   we had a bunch of movies make more than a billion dollars

00:36:07   at the box office.

00:36:08   Like they're blockbusters

00:36:11   and that's why they make blockbusters

00:36:12   is because those are the ones that make a lot of money

00:36:15   at the box office.

00:36:16   So here's the thing, I don't think anybody,

00:36:20   any movie is going to have a billion dollars

00:36:22   worth of worth if it goes direct to streaming, right?

00:36:26   That's the problem is the theater market

00:36:29   is a very lucrative important market for studios too.

00:36:33   So they don't want to abandon it,

00:36:35   but they probably need to change their approach.

00:36:38   I think, I honestly think that we're gonna not see

00:36:43   as many blockbuster movies

00:36:44   and we're gonna see a lot more mid price movies

00:36:46   where the budgets are gonna come down

00:36:48   and they're gonna be aware

00:36:49   'cause once you know that you can't make $3 billion

00:36:53   in theatrical, you're not gonna spend

00:36:56   as much money making the movies.

00:36:58   And so, maybe the next round of Marvel movies

00:37:00   after the ones they've already greenlit,

00:37:02   maybe they're all about half the budget they were before

00:37:05   or something like that

00:37:06   because they know they're not gonna make

00:37:07   as much money theatrically,

00:37:09   but then they're gonna make,

00:37:10   they're building the value of Disney+

00:37:12   and Disney+ throws off this amount of money

00:37:15   and that makes it worth it.

00:37:16   Ultimately, this is massive amounts of disruption,

00:37:21   but this is the kind of thing

00:37:23   that the pandemic time is going to do for many industries.

00:37:28   And so it's like, you know,

00:37:30   just to recap this in case we're not being clear,

00:37:33   I feel for people whose livelihoods are affected by this,

00:37:37   but what we're saying is that the companies

00:37:40   that own these movie theater chains

00:37:42   need to change the expectations that they have

00:37:46   of what they can get

00:37:47   and how they can charge their customers, right?

00:37:50   But just the practicalities of it

00:37:52   is that the public either won't feel safe, won't be safe,

00:37:56   or change their habits in such a way

00:37:59   that they won't want to go to the theater anymore.

00:38:02   And ultimately, you can't force people to do it.

00:38:07   I personally can't imagine going to see a movie

00:38:12   in a cinema for years, years,

00:38:15   because I wasn't doing it that much anyway.

00:38:18   So why would I do it, right?

00:38:20   And so it's because I don't feel comfortable

00:38:24   with doing it now.

00:38:25   - Well, they closed the good movie theater in my county.

00:38:29   So now I would have to go to a bad theater

00:38:31   or go drive a bit to go to a good theater.

00:38:35   And, you know, maybe I would do that at some point,

00:38:37   but you're right.

00:38:38   I think if you look at the introduction of home video,

00:38:41   this has been a long, very slow motion car crash, right?

00:38:46   Like the availability,

00:38:49   because what you want is people want to see movies.

00:38:51   People do want to see movies.

00:38:52   To the credit of everybody in the movie industry,

00:38:54   people love watching movies.

00:38:56   They really do.

00:38:57   And there's a lot of money there.

00:38:58   There's a lot of people there.

00:38:59   There's a lot of interest there.

00:39:00   We see it with the Marvel movies and Star Wars.

00:39:02   And, you know, there are all sorts of things

00:39:04   that people like to see in these movies,

00:39:05   but people love to go to the movies.

00:39:07   Okay.

00:39:08   Or they love movies.

00:39:09   Let's say that.

00:39:10   People love movies.

00:39:11   Over time with home video,

00:39:13   things have just,

00:39:14   the window gets closer and closer and closer and closer

00:39:16   because people want to see that movie.

00:39:18   And the movie industry has kept

00:39:21   the exclusive theatrical window

00:39:23   because it lets them charge per person.

00:39:28   And they didn't have a great delivery mechanism anyway,

00:39:30   but it lets them charge per person at a fairly high rate.

00:39:33   And then the theaters are making money on the concessions

00:39:36   and things like that.

00:39:37   But even so, it just keeps getting smaller and smaller

00:39:41   because people want to see the movie

00:39:42   and the opportunity to let people see the movie

00:39:45   in other forms is greater and greater.

00:39:48   And now you have trained the audience

00:39:50   and COVID frankly has trained the audience

00:39:53   and modern flat screen TVs and sound bars.

00:39:57   And like, there's so many technologies

00:39:59   that have changed the balance

00:40:01   that what you've got is like a,

00:40:05   here in California, we have a lot of,

00:40:08   in a forest, we have this oak, sudden oak death

00:40:11   that kills the trees and the oak trees are standing,

00:40:13   but they're dead.

00:40:14   And then a windstorm or a fire blows through

00:40:17   and the fire just sets them all on fire

00:40:19   because they're already dead.

00:40:20   It's just dead wood ready to burn.

00:40:22   It's that moment,

00:40:23   or if you think about the radio telescope in Puerto Rico

00:40:27   that collapsed, like it was a slow collapse

00:40:29   and then it was all at once.

00:40:31   Like this is what the standard traditional theatrical

00:40:35   movie industry is right now,

00:40:37   is it was teetering and all of the prevailing winds

00:40:42   were pushing against it and then COVID happened.

00:40:47   And then you're Warner Media or even Disney

00:40:50   and you look at your streaming platform

00:40:52   that is the future of your company.

00:40:54   And they all say it.

00:40:56   Movie theaters are not the future of Disney.

00:40:59   They're not, they've said so.

00:41:00   Movie theaters are not the future of Disney.

00:41:02   Streaming is the future of Disney

00:41:03   and it may take time to get there,

00:41:04   but they've already said theaters are ancillary.

00:41:07   So they're not going to prioritize the thing

00:41:11   that's not the future.

00:41:12   So that's it.

00:41:14   It is the thing that probably didn't make

00:41:16   a lot of sense already,

00:41:18   but hung on because there was momentum

00:41:21   and nobody wants to be the person to change it.

00:41:24   And then a pandemic happens and that's it.

00:41:27   It's going to change.

00:41:29   So I can't predict what 2022 movie theaters

00:41:32   are gonna look like,

00:41:33   but the fact that we will have gotten

00:41:35   all of these releases from Warners

00:41:37   and some releases from Disney, right?

00:41:39   Soul will probably not be the last one

00:41:41   that will just pop on Disney Plus.

00:41:44   That is gonna change, that's gonna change things.

00:41:47   And let's not forget Netflix is spending

00:41:48   a lot of money on original films too.

00:41:52   And so many people have Netflix.

00:41:54   So that's actually, I think the strongest headwind

00:41:59   for the Warner Medias and Disney's of the world

00:42:02   is are they really competing over movie theater stuff

00:42:07   or are they competing with Netflix for attention?

00:42:11   So I don't know.

00:42:13   I'll tell you this though, I'll tell you this.

00:42:15   I am so looking forward to watching

00:42:16   Wonder Woman on Christmas day, right?

00:42:17   The bottom line as a movie fan

00:42:19   and somebody who liked the first Wonder Woman movie a lot,

00:42:22   like that's an event, that's our Christmas night.

00:42:25   I'm so excited about that because I like movies.

00:42:30   I just am not gonna go see one in a theater

00:42:32   and neither are you.

00:42:33   - Maybe you don't need two movies a year

00:42:38   that make a billion dollars if you have

00:42:39   a hundred million people giving you $5 a month.

00:42:43   Like I don't know the economics of it,

00:42:45   but if you can get enough people giving you money

00:42:49   every month rather than once or twice a year,

00:42:52   maybe it's enough, I don't know.

00:42:54   - I don't know.

00:42:55   - You've got to assume that they think it is.

00:42:56   If Disney is saying stuff like they have,

00:42:58   like the future is streaming,

00:43:00   they must assume that's the case.

00:43:02   Or maybe they wouldn't do it, we'll find out.

00:43:06   The one thing I do want to point in this

00:43:07   because I have to, there is obviously

00:43:09   no international story for HBO Max here

00:43:12   and all of these movies.

00:43:14   There is a rumor that Wonder Woman

00:43:15   may see a release on Sky TV here,

00:43:18   but if it does, it's either gonna be as part of Sky,

00:43:21   which is an incredibly high barrier to entry, right?

00:43:24   Like you're in, like it's basically cable, right?

00:43:28   And not everybody has a Sky.

00:43:30   Most people I think don't anymore have something like that

00:43:33   because there's so much streaming stuff now.

00:43:35   Or they may put it on a premium video on demand.

00:43:40   Maybe you can buy it yourself.

00:43:41   But I really, you know, I look at Disney's numbers,

00:43:46   like the tens of millions of subscribers,

00:43:50   and I know a lot of those are international

00:43:52   and I think that HBO need to work out what they're doing,

00:43:56   Warner need to work out what they're doing with this

00:43:58   because if you're trying to like, you know,

00:44:01   they have this American strategy of we take it

00:44:04   and we own it, but their international strategy

00:44:07   is like, oh, whoever, I guess.

00:44:09   And I don't think that those two things

00:44:11   match up in the long run.

00:44:12   - Yeah, we have been watching them for a while, right?

00:44:16   Like not, just struggle with having an international rollout

00:44:19   and this is a case where Netflix got there

00:44:22   and Apple is there and Disney is there.

00:44:27   Their strategy is interesting 'cause you have pointed out

00:44:31   a few times the hole in it, which is they're gonna do

00:44:34   theatrical release of these movies everywhere

00:44:37   where theaters are open.

00:44:39   And they've got HBO Max in the US, okay?

00:44:43   What about places where there aren't theaters open

00:44:45   or people don't wanna go to theaters

00:44:47   and there is no HBO Max, then what happens?

00:44:50   And the answer is, I guess it looks a lot like 2019

00:44:53   in that scenario where it's gonna come out in the UK,

00:44:56   if there are any cinemas open, you're not gonna go see it

00:44:59   and there's gonna be no alternative to that.

00:45:01   Maybe the window for purchasing it is 31 days, right?

00:45:04   So the 31 days later you can buy it or rent it

00:45:07   and that's a lot less than it used to be,

00:45:09   but you're not gonna be able to do it same day

00:45:12   because they don't have it.

00:45:13   And it's not your fault, right?

00:45:14   It's because they don't have an international strategy

00:45:16   for HBO Max, which they probably should have, right?

00:45:19   Like you probably should have that,

00:45:21   but they sold all of their international rights

00:45:24   for all of their content to so many different rights holders

00:45:26   that they can't put the pieces together yet.

00:45:30   - Wild.

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00:48:21   So I sat down for the show today

00:48:26   and I wrote out a big topic based on an article

00:48:29   that you'd written over the weekend

00:48:31   about trying to guess the performance of the M2 chips.

00:48:36   So you've done one of your form with charts.

00:48:39   - Yeah, you know, something to write on a Friday afternoon.

00:48:42   - They're great.

00:48:43   - Essentially what that is.

00:48:44   - Trying to work out like, oh, what could the M2 be?

00:48:46   So I finished that.

00:48:48   I pressed stop on my timer.

00:48:51   I went over to Twitter.

00:48:52   I scrolled to the top of the timeline

00:48:54   and I saw a tweet from Mark Gurman talking about these chips.

00:48:58   I went back to the document, deleted all the stuff,

00:49:01   started again.

00:49:01   - Friend of the show, Mark Gurman once again

00:49:03   released a big report right before upgrade.

00:49:05   Thank you, Mark.

00:49:06   - If Mark's gonna do it,

00:49:07   I prefer it to be done the exact time that he's doing it

00:49:10   because if he did it afterwards, it would be way worse.

00:49:13   I don't mind spending the time working on the notes

00:49:16   and then going back to it

00:49:17   if I then get a report as juicy as this one.

00:49:21   I am going to read some quotes

00:49:23   and we can stop and talk about them all

00:49:25   because this is a very focused report, but very good one.

00:49:30   So lots of interesting information

00:49:32   and it comes from Mark Gurman and Ian King

00:49:34   talking about a new series of chips

00:49:36   that could be introduced in 2021.

00:49:38   Several successes to the M1 are being developed

00:49:42   that quote, "If they live up to expectations,

00:49:45   they will significantly outpace the performance

00:49:47   of the latest machines running Intel chips."

00:49:50   Now this we expected, right?

00:49:52   This is what we've been expecting,

00:49:54   that everything that Apple introduces,

00:49:56   now that we've seen what the M1 can do

00:49:58   should beat whatever it's replacing.

00:50:00   - Hold everything, hold everything, people.

00:50:03   It turns out Apple's not gonna just make the M1

00:50:05   and then never make another processor.

00:50:07   - Wait, what?

00:50:08   I thought that they only made phone chips.

00:50:11   - No, no, it's true.

00:50:12   They're gonna make several successors to the M1.

00:50:14   They're gonna keep making chips

00:50:16   and they'll be better than the M1.

00:50:20   - The company's next series of chips plan for release

00:50:24   as early as the spring and later in the fall

00:50:26   are destined to be placed across upgraded versions

00:50:30   of the MacBook Pro, both entry-level

00:50:32   and high-end iMac desktops and a later new Mac Pro workstation.

00:50:37   All of this we kind of had expected,

00:50:41   but that timeline seems more aggressive.

00:50:43   - It's interesting as early as the spring

00:50:46   and later in the fall, the fact here seems to be

00:50:51   Apple has two waves of these

00:50:52   that Mark is able to report about,

00:50:55   that somebody was willing to pass on that information,

00:50:58   two waves, because like, again, as early as the spring,

00:51:01   it might not be the spring.

00:51:02   It might be the summer, it might be the fall.

00:51:03   And later in the fall, might be later in the fall

00:51:06   or it might be 2022, right?

00:51:07   They have to make some product decisions

00:51:08   and things slide around.

00:51:09   But what he is saying here is that there are two sets

00:51:14   that are being targeted.

00:51:16   This is not just sort of like a next year's model,

00:51:19   but it's like a couple of models

00:51:20   that might happen next year, which is interesting.

00:51:23   The fact that they mentioned a Mac Pro later,

00:51:26   whatever that means, as well as MacBook Pro and iMac,

00:51:30   interesting, I have thought for a while now

00:51:32   that while Apple said that they were doing

00:51:34   a two-year transition, it wouldn't surprise me

00:51:36   if they finished by the end of 2021,

00:51:38   just so they could say, "Oh yeah, we're done."

00:51:41   And were being conservative when they gave themselves

00:51:44   two years to make the transition.

00:51:46   Would not surprise me at all, they've done it before.

00:51:48   - Well, I also, to add to that,

00:51:51   I've been thinking about this too,

00:51:53   they announced that it would be a two-year transition

00:51:56   in June of this year, when Apple will also do that.

00:52:00   - No, no, no, like I was gonna say-

00:52:00   - They said when we start it in the fall,

00:52:03   it will be a two-year transition.

00:52:05   - What I mean is, I've mis-said that,

00:52:08   you thought I was making a different point.

00:52:09   In June of this year, there were lots and lots of issues

00:52:13   around producing anything, and nobody knew

00:52:16   how long it was going to take

00:52:18   for product production to stabilize.

00:52:21   - So even more reason for them to be conservative

00:52:23   with their claims.

00:52:23   - They may have given themselves a little bit extra time

00:52:26   in case that they felt that there were gonna be

00:52:29   more significant issues around product manufacture

00:52:32   over that 24-month period or whatever.

00:52:35   - And maybe they feel better about it now.

00:52:38   Also, presumably they're getting samples of stuff

00:52:40   from Taiwan Semiconductor, and they've seen how the process

00:52:43   of the M1 being built at scale is going,

00:52:46   and they've gained confidence there.

00:52:47   Although I do wanna point out again,

00:52:49   Mark's report definitely is saying

00:52:53   this is what they're thinking, but Apple could make,

00:52:57   Apple is still waiting and seeing in their decisions

00:52:59   they could make, and these things get delayed.

00:53:01   And people always roll their eyes at that and say,

00:53:02   well, he's hedging, but it's like, well, no,

00:53:04   the future is unknown until it happens.

00:53:07   This is, what he's reporting is what is currently

00:53:11   the thinking within Apple, right?

00:53:13   Which is not a prediction, it's what they're shooting for,

00:53:17   what they think they might be able to achieve,

00:53:19   and they may change their mind,

00:53:21   or something may happen, exactly right, yeah.

00:53:23   But here's this next part, I feel so vindicated

00:53:27   in this part.

00:53:28   The next two lines of Apple chips are also planned

00:53:31   to be more ambitious than some industry watches

00:53:34   expected for next year.

00:53:35   For its next generation chip targeting MacBook Pro

00:53:38   and iMac models, Apple is working on designs

00:53:41   of as many as 16 power cores and four efficiency cores.

00:53:45   So that's 20 core, 20 core chips, 20, 20 in the MacBook Pro.

00:53:50   While that component is in development,

00:53:53   Apple could choose to first release variations

00:53:56   of only eight or 12 of the high performance cores

00:53:59   enabled depending on production.

00:54:01   So this is binning.

00:54:01   - Enabled, that's binning, yeah, that's right.

00:54:03   The idea that they may have an M1X or an M2

00:54:07   that they're targeting 16 PCORs, right?

00:54:12   That's what they call them.

00:54:12   Apparently we discovered that. - PCORs and ECORs.

00:54:14   Well, upgrade and snow this.

00:54:16   - Like 4e cores is sort of the standard,

00:54:17   which is that, I feel like the 4e cores thing,

00:54:21   they have modeled what like boring average usage is

00:54:26   and are very confident that the 4e cores can do all of that,

00:54:30   like low level stuff.

00:54:32   And then the PCORs jump in when you need,

00:54:35   you know, when you're doing a job.

00:54:37   - It seems like now she's saying that Apple have worked out

00:54:40   that there is a maximum amount of tasks

00:54:43   that would ever be needed on a ECORs.

00:54:46   And they're just, as you said,

00:54:47   they've just optimized for those four and that's that.

00:54:50   - And maybe in the future it will increase,

00:54:52   but if it does, it will be like, they all get six now.

00:54:55   So like it's unlikely that different machines

00:54:58   will get more ECORs than others is how it seems.

00:55:01   - In doing my silly chart spreadsheets and stuff,

00:55:05   what I found is performance scales with PCORs.

00:55:09   'Cause remember the Intel just has cores.

00:55:13   And so I was doing for iOS, I was like looking at like,

00:55:16   do I add the, if I'm trying to get like a Geekbench score

00:55:20   per core, how does that make sense?

00:55:23   And what I found was it makes most sense

00:55:25   if you just ignore the efficiency cores and you just,

00:55:28   the power cores are where the scale comes from.

00:55:31   And this bears that out, which is,

00:55:34   there's a base model of performance

00:55:36   that they want to run efficiently.

00:55:37   That's the thing that runs when you're sitting idle.

00:55:39   It runs when you're just typing an email.

00:55:41   It's what happens when the lid is shut on your laptop

00:55:45   and it's just doing some things in the background.

00:55:47   Like it's all that stuff is handled by the efficiency core

00:55:51   and it's the equivalent of a MacBook Air,

00:55:54   an Intel MacBook Air, right?

00:55:55   Like they said, and then you lay on the power cores

00:55:59   and that's to do everything else.

00:56:00   And when you get to work,

00:56:02   and so it is interesting to see them say,

00:56:05   well, what we're gonna do is design a variant of this chip

00:56:07   that's got, instead of four or eight,

00:56:10   it'll have 16 power cores.

00:56:15   And then they could bin it

00:56:18   depending on the yields that they get.

00:56:20   So they might come out with like an eight or 12

00:56:22   and that would also allow for that,

00:56:24   like configured order experience where you've,

00:56:29   in the end, what they're gonna do is say,

00:56:32   new iMac or new 16 inch MacBook Pro,

00:56:36   and you can, you know, it comes with eight cores,

00:56:39   but you can get 12 or 16 if you pay extra.

00:56:42   And that's a perfectly kind of understandable

00:56:45   computer buying kind of thing.

00:56:47   Nothing in the story about how they are gonna handle

00:56:50   memory configurations, which is one of these things

00:56:52   that everybody keeps asking about,

00:56:54   but just imagine a 16 core plus the four efficiency cores,

00:56:59   so 20 core MacBook Pro, like you said, or iMac.

00:57:03   - So when I said I felt vindicated,

00:57:05   it's in that there have been many people in this arena

00:57:12   who care about technology and Apple who have just been like,

00:57:15   these are just iPhone chips and these are just,

00:57:18   this is just what Apple's gonna do,

00:57:19   they make iPhone chips now.

00:57:21   And one of the things that we've been talking about

00:57:23   and I've been saying, like my feeling on this is just like,

00:57:25   all that is similar about them is kind of how they look,

00:57:29   but what Apple is doing is completely different.

00:57:33   And I think at the point, I mean,

00:57:34   we haven't even got to the rest of the story,

00:57:36   but at the point that like here is a 20 core chip,

00:57:40   it's like, all right, we have to all agree now

00:57:42   that these aren't iPhone chips, right?

00:57:44   It's just, this is the way Apple knows

00:57:46   how to make their own chips.

00:57:48   So in theory, they look similar, but I do not believe,

00:57:52   and I have never thought that what is the M1 is an A14X.

00:57:57   Like, I don't think that that's how they think of it.

00:57:59   I just do not believe, I've never thought that,

00:58:02   but it's just, they look like they would be similar.

00:58:04   And I'm sure that if an A14X comes out

00:58:07   and it will look similar,

00:58:09   but I don't think that Apple has ever considered them

00:58:11   that way, and I think when we're seeing this kind of stuff,

00:58:14   we can see that they don't.

00:58:15   So.

00:58:16   - Everything they're doing to evolve, right?

00:58:19   Like the M1 is not just an A14X

00:58:22   that's capable of running macOS.

00:58:24   It's also the start of like, it's the base camp

00:58:29   for whatever they're going to do from there

00:58:31   on the Mac side, right?

00:58:32   So presumably they have strategized in building it.

00:58:35   They know where it's going from there and it's going up.

00:58:39   - And now we've seen this chip

00:58:40   and we see what the future looks like.

00:58:42   I think the reason that it looks like an iPhone chip

00:58:45   is that they just, so this is all that they needed.

00:58:47   Look how powerful these machines are.

00:58:49   They didn't need more than that, right?

00:58:51   If anything, they put too much in there.

00:58:53   - I'm sure in the many times,

00:58:55   somebody sent a link about us talking about our Macs

00:58:57   in like episode 100 or something of this show,

00:58:59   which is like, it's been a long time

00:59:01   we've been talking about them.

00:59:02   But like the, I think the assumption all along

00:59:04   was that they were essentially going to be able

00:59:05   to take something that was like a glorified iPad chip

00:59:08   and put it in Macs and it would be an incredibly fast,

00:59:11   low-end Mac.

00:59:12   It would be incredibly fast,

00:59:14   much faster than your MacBook Air,

00:59:18   you know, or Mac Mini would be.

00:59:20   And although, yes, the M1 is not an A14X,

00:59:25   but it is potentially in terms of performance and profile,

00:59:28   kind of a glorified iPad chip.

00:59:30   It is the first step.

00:59:31   It is a logical first step.

00:59:32   They're not going to jump to the 20 core monster.

00:59:35   They're going to start with the simplest thing.

00:59:36   It's they're dipping their toe in the water of Mac chips.

00:59:41   And it's exactly that.

00:59:43   It is exactly that.

00:59:44   It is not that different from what they've done before

00:59:46   'cause you got to start somewhere.

00:59:49   But they know where they're going from here.

00:59:51   And that's what this "Gurman" story is about.

00:59:53   Like this is the most modest.

00:59:57   That's the thing when I see people

00:59:59   who are generally PC industry skeptics

01:00:02   who don't think that Apple's all that

01:00:05   and look at what is going on on the Windows side.

01:00:08   When I see them criticize it,

01:00:09   it's very funny that a lot of times

01:00:11   the fact that this is a low end processor

01:00:13   on low end computers gets lost because, you know,

01:00:16   but what about the high end?

01:00:17   It's like, well, yeah, this isn't that.

01:00:20   This is the low end.

01:00:21   Now we're starting to get a sense

01:00:24   of what Apple's playbook is from here.

01:00:26   - That playbook keeps getting bigger.

01:00:29   So look, we need to just point it out again.

01:00:32   20 core, 20 core processors in laptops.

01:00:36   - I wonder when we start ignoring the efficiency cores

01:00:39   and just talk about the performance cores.

01:00:41   - The power cores, the PCores, some point.

01:00:44   But like that is absurd.

01:00:46   - Yeah.

01:00:47   - For higher end desktops planned for later in 2021

01:00:51   and a new half-sized Mac Pro planned to launch by 2022,

01:00:55   this is Mark doubling down on this now.

01:00:57   So let's, we can all assume that this is going to happen.

01:01:00   Apple is testing a chip design

01:01:02   of as many as 32 high performance cores.

01:01:06   That would probably mean maybe 36.

01:01:08   Maybe this machine doesn't even get them.

01:01:09   Who knows? I doubt that.

01:01:10   But let's say, let's just assume a 36 core machine.

01:01:15   36 core.

01:01:16   - Yeah.

01:01:18   - Now, higher end desktop computers,

01:01:21   we can assume that this would be the highest end iMac, right?

01:01:26   - Yeah, I imagine, right, higher end desktop computers,

01:01:29   that is whether we call it an iMac Pro

01:01:30   or just a very high end iMac.

01:01:32   That's what that is, right?

01:01:33   - Maybe Mac Mini, maybe, right?

01:01:36   - Maybe.

01:01:37   - Maybe.

01:01:38   - Maybe.

01:01:38   - But we would assume-

01:01:39   - You gotta earn the space gray.

01:01:40   You gotta earn that space gray.

01:01:41   - Because he says, "And A."

01:01:43   So that, you know, it's like, so there's,

01:01:45   and this half-sized Mac Pro,

01:01:47   I'm really puzzled about this.

01:01:52   Like, is this the Mac Pro now?

01:01:57   Or is it a new Mac Pro alongside the other one?

01:02:01   We don't know that, right?

01:02:03   But it seems like there's something going on there,

01:02:05   which is really interesting.

01:02:07   But that is, that's massive, right?

01:02:12   32 high performance cores.

01:02:15   It's a lot of cores, Jason.

01:02:16   I don't know if you, I don't know if you know.

01:02:19   'Cause like, what are we, like, what's the top?

01:02:21   10, 12 for the Mac Pro right now?

01:02:25   Is that as high up as it goes at the moment?

01:02:27   - Oh no, Mac Pro goes way up.

01:02:29   - Oh, okay.

01:02:30   Okay.

01:02:31   I know that the iMac Pro is 10, right?

01:02:35   Or is that-

01:02:36   - The base model.

01:02:36   The base model is 10.

01:02:38   They all go way far up above that.

01:02:40   - They're saying 28 in the chat at the moment,

01:02:44   which is where it goes.

01:02:44   So, you know, this is more cores.

01:02:46   Apple engineers are also developing

01:02:49   more ambitious graphics processes.

01:02:51   Today's M1 processors are offered

01:02:53   of a custom Apple graphics engine

01:02:56   that comes in seven or eight core variations.

01:02:59   For its future high-end laptops and mid-range desktops,

01:03:02   Apple is testing 16 and 32 core graphics parts.

01:03:07   - Yeah.

01:03:10   I mean, again, not surprising.

01:03:11   So what we're saying is that for a higher end MacBook Pro

01:03:15   and for the iMac, you're not gonna get

01:03:17   what you have with the M1,

01:03:19   where you've got a smaller number of cores

01:03:24   and seven or eight GPU cores.

01:03:27   Instead, you're gonna get a system with,

01:03:30   let's say, eight performance cores

01:03:34   and 16 graphics cores on that processor

01:03:38   as the base model, something like that.

01:03:40   And that would make it a MacBook Pro, right?

01:03:41   Or an iMac.

01:03:42   That would make sense.

01:03:43   And then you've got your configure to order options

01:03:44   where you go up to 32 cores

01:03:47   or 16 performance cores and all of that.

01:03:54   It's fun to see Mark Gurman report this

01:03:56   because he's reporting this with information

01:03:58   from people on the inside,

01:04:00   but it's also kind of something that follows logically.

01:04:02   This is, of course, this is the kind of thing

01:04:05   that you would do.

01:04:06   It also does inform a little bit Apple's strategy

01:04:09   with the M series processor,

01:04:12   which seems to be more cores, right?

01:04:16   - That's what the M stands for.

01:04:18   - More cores, more CPU cores, more graphics cores,

01:04:21   probably more neural engine cores, just more cores.

01:04:24   Just add more cores.

01:04:26   And they must feel very confident about the ability

01:04:29   for their architecture to scale with that many cores.

01:04:31   Like 32 cores of graphics, 32 high-performance CPU cores.

01:04:36   That's a lot, right?

01:04:37   But they are testing it.

01:04:40   So I think they've proven that they know what they're doing,

01:04:44   but this is another level from what they've done up to now.

01:04:48   - I'm not done.

01:04:50   - For later in 2021, or potentially 2022,

01:04:54   Apple is working on pricier graphics upgrades

01:04:58   with 64 and 128 dedicated cores

01:05:02   aimed at its highest-end machines, the people said.

01:05:05   Those graphics chips would be several times faster

01:05:08   than the current graphics modules Apple uses

01:05:11   from NVIDIA and AMD in its Intel-powered hardware.

01:05:17   There is a possibility that you would be able to get

01:05:21   this little baby Mac Pro with a 36-core processor

01:05:26   and a 128-core GPU.

01:05:34   How big is that system on a chip?

01:05:37   Do they wheel it in for you, right?

01:05:40   I don't know enough about this.

01:05:46   I hear ATP talk about it, but could that all be on one chip?

01:05:51   All of that?

01:05:53   'Cause it's not clear to me,

01:05:57   the way that I read in Mark's article,

01:06:02   as to whether Apple is working on integrated

01:06:07   or discrete graphics here.

01:06:08   Now, I know that there have been previous articles

01:06:12   that reference discrete graphics cards,

01:06:15   so separate graphics chips from Apple,

01:06:19   and maybe the 64 and 128-core GPUs

01:06:23   would be like separate chips

01:06:27   that maybe you could upgrade in the Mac Pro anyway,

01:06:30   which might make sense.

01:06:31   But nevertheless, that is just an unbelievable offering.

01:06:36   Like, within the next two years, the next 18 months,

01:06:45   this is what we could be looking at.

01:06:47   - Well, it shows you their ambition, right?

01:06:50   Like, if they can pull this off,

01:06:53   what they're gonna get is the performance boost

01:06:57   that we've seen in the low end across the line.

01:07:01   And by that, I mean, one way this plays out

01:07:05   is that the other products in the Mac product line

01:07:08   get slightly upgraded M1 kind of stuff.

01:07:11   And the M1 MacBook Air is so many times faster

01:07:16   than the previous model,

01:07:17   but by the time you get up to the high end, they're not.

01:07:20   They're like in the ballpark or a little bit faster.

01:07:23   That's the sort of really gentle approach to transition.

01:07:28   A more aggressive approach is to say,

01:07:30   no, every time we upgrade a model,

01:07:32   we're gonna do our take on the chip

01:07:33   that should be in that model,

01:07:34   and it's gonna be more aggressive,

01:07:36   and every one of these is gonna be that much faster.

01:07:38   The Mac Pro, at each core level,

01:07:40   it's going to be, at each price level,

01:07:42   is going to be this much faster than the Intel Mac Pro.

01:07:47   And that seems to be what this report is suggesting,

01:07:50   is that's at least what they're shooting for.

01:07:52   I'm also, again, really intrigued by the fact

01:07:55   that it looks like we've got a couple of waves,

01:07:57   because that kind of makes sense, and I like that idea.

01:08:00   So they're working on,

01:08:02   step two is desktops and high-end laptops,

01:08:05   and then step three is super high-end Pro models.

01:08:08   And that's gonna be their approach.

01:08:10   And maybe we'll see those super high-end Pro models

01:08:13   by the end of next year,

01:08:14   or maybe, as he says, potentially 2022.

01:08:18   But in the interim,

01:08:20   we are also gonna be talking about new iMacs

01:08:23   and new MacBook Pros that have this more powerful CPU

01:08:28   and graphics processor than what's on the M1.

01:08:31   And that's logical.

01:08:33   That's why they didn't update those systems with the M1,

01:08:35   because they need something more than the M1 can provide.

01:08:39   But yeah, again, Xeon, you can spend a lot of money

01:08:44   and get a 28-core Mac Pro,

01:08:47   but 32 high-performance Apple-designed cores

01:08:51   in a little half-height Mac Pro is a fascinating thing.

01:08:55   And I still wonder about expansion

01:08:57   and what that expansion looks like.

01:08:58   And there are a lot of open questions there

01:09:00   for that product.

01:09:01   But let's be honest,

01:09:03   not very many people will buy a Mac Pro, whatever it is.

01:09:05   It is an edge case kind of product.

01:09:08   I'm more interested in what happens with the iMac

01:09:11   and the Mac mini and the high-end MacBook Pro.

01:09:13   - What it looks like is a lot.

01:09:17   A lot's gonna happen.

01:09:19   I don't know exactly what I expected,

01:09:24   but I feel like these numbers have surprised me.

01:09:31   I can think, so the ones that surprised me the most

01:09:35   are the amount of cores in a MacBook Pro,

01:09:39   20 cores in a laptop seems like a lot,

01:09:41   and I think the graphics stuff.

01:09:46   And I did wanna mention something that Mark points out

01:09:49   in the article is that these are so much faster

01:09:52   than the chips that Apple uses from Nvidia and AMD.

01:09:56   I think it's worth just noting

01:09:57   that the chips that Apple uses from Nvidia and AMD

01:10:00   are significantly slower than the PC stuff,

01:10:04   like the dedicated graphics cards.

01:10:06   The things that Apple chooses to integrate and use

01:10:09   they're not that great.

01:10:13   So it's just like, I think people see that

01:10:15   and they think that Apple's chips are gonna be faster

01:10:19   than these 38s I keep hearing people talk about.

01:10:22   It's complicated the way that the architecture is

01:10:26   for these chips, but like the Nvidia 38e,

01:10:32   Nvidia say it has thousands of cores.

01:10:34   So it's a different,

01:10:37   they look at these things very differently,

01:10:40   but this is also saying that Apple are kind of playing

01:10:45   their own interesting game here,

01:10:47   and there's not like an obscene amount of cores

01:10:52   in my MacBook Pro, but it is significantly faster

01:10:57   than anything with the same core count.

01:11:00   So, there's a lot at play here,

01:11:03   but what is just worth noting is we can all assume

01:11:07   Apple can produce more powerful graphics units and chips

01:11:12   than what they are currently using.

01:11:15   Even if they could extend up to what is available

01:11:21   in PC architecture and more,

01:11:24   there still has to be stuff to take advantage of that.

01:11:27   And like really powerful graphics tends to mean great games,

01:11:32   but it isn't just graphics that brings games.

01:11:37   That there's a lot in between, right?

01:11:39   Like market and development tools.

01:11:43   And it has been long known that that is not really there

01:11:47   for the Mac for these big AAA games.

01:11:51   Now, if the hardware is that impressive

01:11:54   or ends up being so impressive,

01:11:56   maybe that changes the gaming story on the Mac a little bit,

01:11:59   but I don't think so.

01:12:01   Ultimately, I think the graphic stuff for the Mac

01:12:04   is about creative software and how that is used, right?

01:12:09   So like how can better graphics provide a better experience

01:12:13   for video editors, all that kind of stuff, you know?

01:12:16   I don't think that we're gonna see, you know, Fortnite,

01:12:21   not Fortnite, obviously Fortnite's already been on the Mac,

01:12:25   but say like Cyberpunk, right?

01:12:26   Which is the game that everyone's excited about,

01:12:28   but it seems like it might be disappointing.

01:12:30   These are the types of games that people wait for

01:12:33   for their consoles and the PC,

01:12:34   but they don't have a place on the Mac.

01:12:37   And I don't necessarily think that these chips

01:12:39   would result in that.

01:12:41   But it's just like an addendum that I wanna make

01:12:43   to people that maybe don't pay as much attention

01:12:46   to this kind of stuff.

01:12:47   But overall, this isn't, I am so excited.

01:12:52   This report, I felt like my brain just kept exploding

01:12:56   the more I read of it.

01:12:58   Like it really, I'm super excited about this,

01:13:02   super, super excited about this.

01:13:03   - Yeah, yeah, again, it's exciting because it shows

01:13:09   Apple's level of ambition here.

01:13:11   And I think what you see in Mark Gurman's hedging

01:13:15   is internally, you know, not entirely being confident

01:13:20   that they're gonna get it all in 2021,

01:13:22   that there may be issues.

01:13:23   They are new to this on the Mac side,

01:13:26   and they could face challenges,

01:13:30   but it sounds like they're being very ambitious

01:13:33   and that they've got a game plan

01:13:34   and it involves a couple of waves of processors,

01:13:37   high-end laptops/desktop systems,

01:13:40   and then a super high-end system,

01:13:43   and maybe a binning approach to providing

01:13:47   some different levels of performance.

01:13:49   And you pay to get the extra cores for the GPUs and the CPUs.

01:13:54   And it's all logical.

01:13:55   I mean, that's the thing about it is it's exciting,

01:13:57   but also it makes sense.

01:13:58   Like I get that this would be their strategy.

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01:16:18   and all of Relay FM.

01:16:20   Let's do some #AskUpgrade questions.

01:16:25   Ryan wants to know what orientation or size of keyboard

01:16:29   do you use on your phone?

01:16:31   Do you go full size, squish to the left

01:16:34   or squish to the right?

01:16:35   - Full size.

01:16:38   - Man, me too.

01:16:39   - Full size.

01:16:40   - Don't forget that the squished thing is a thing you can do.

01:16:43   I can see why people that use the phone that I use

01:16:46   might wanna do the squish to one side thing.

01:16:48   - Probably not a great option on an iPhone 12 mini.

01:16:51   - Probably not necessary for most people.

01:16:54   But even though I do full size,

01:16:57   I am pretty much always a swipe typer.

01:17:00   I do the swipe typing, love me the swipe typing.

01:17:03   - I mostly still tap, but I do swipe occasionally.

01:17:08   John wants to know, Jason Snell,

01:17:11   how come 20 max for 2020 is not an incomparable podcast?

01:17:15   - This is the same version of a question

01:17:17   we've answered a bunch of times before,

01:17:18   which is the incomparable is a kind of popular culture

01:17:20   and entertainment network and Relay FM

01:17:22   is a technology network.

01:17:23   And so a tech podcast goes on Relay FM

01:17:26   and 20 max for 2020 is a tech podcast.

01:17:29   So that's the answer.

01:17:31   - I mostly just wanted to include this as a opportunity

01:17:34   for you to tell people that they should go

01:17:36   and listen to 20 max for 2020.

01:17:38   - Well, thank you, Myke Hurley.

01:17:39   That's a great suggestion.

01:17:40   People should listen to 20 max for 2020.

01:17:41   It's available for everyone for free.

01:17:43   It comes out on Fridays, relay.fm/20max, I wanna say.

01:17:48   And if you're an upgrade member or a Six Colors member,

01:17:53   you can access your member page

01:17:56   and get the members only feed that comes out on Monday,

01:17:59   the same time that the essay and the video

01:18:01   with me and Steven Hackett come out.

01:18:03   So this week's selection is the MacBook Air.

01:18:08   - I don't wanna tip my hand.

01:18:11   And I definitely don't want to unfairly encourage

01:18:14   the upgrade-ians when it comes to voting in the upgrade-ies.

01:18:21   But 20 max for 2020 is one of my favorite shows this year.

01:18:24   - Oh, good.

01:18:25   - You do a very good job with it,

01:18:26   a better job than you need to, if that makes sense.

01:18:30   The editing and the storytelling is really good.

01:18:32   No, but you make a lot of creative decisions in the show

01:18:36   that just add flavor, you don't need to do them.

01:18:40   And I think that that is the mark

01:18:42   of a very good production like this.

01:18:44   - That's very nice.

01:18:45   Thank you for saying that.

01:18:45   It is a journey sometimes, writing those episodes

01:18:48   where I go to some interesting places.

01:18:50   But I allow myself to do those things

01:18:53   because that's the whole point is that

01:18:55   I wanna explore what that kind of a podcast is like.

01:18:58   And if something strikes my fancy,

01:19:01   I'm like, yeah, let's go with that.

01:19:02   Let's go in that direction.

01:19:03   Then I do it.

01:19:07   So yeah, people should check it out.

01:19:08   They're short.

01:19:09   They're not like conversational podcasts.

01:19:11   It's a very different kind of thing.

01:19:13   And they're like, most of them are about 15 minutes long

01:19:15   every now and then there's a 20 minute long one.

01:19:18   But yeah, they're a lot of fun.

01:19:21   - Josh wants to know, do you have any app recommendations

01:19:24   for sleep tracking data analysis?

01:19:27   - Not me.

01:19:30   - No.

01:19:31   - I don't do this either,

01:19:32   but I have two apps that I wanted to recommend anyway

01:19:35   for Josh to answer the question.

01:19:37   But I am keen to hear from the Upgradians

01:19:41   to what their experience is with this.

01:19:43   Like I've wondered if sleep tracking is a thing.

01:19:46   Have you ever tried it?

01:19:47   - I tried it like one time

01:19:50   and decided I didn't wanna wear a watch all night.

01:19:52   - I did.

01:19:53   It is my thing too is I don't think I wanna wear

01:19:55   my watch all the time. - I bought a Bedit.

01:19:57   I bought a Bedit which Apple owns,

01:19:58   which is a sensor you lay on the bed and then it logs it.

01:20:03   And that was okay,

01:20:05   but I didn't really do anything with the data

01:20:07   and it really wanted your iPhone to be next to your bed,

01:20:11   which mine isn't.

01:20:12   And then I paid her with my iPad and it didn't work

01:20:16   because there's no health app

01:20:17   and it was just a whole thing.

01:20:18   So I've tried it and I would say if I had some sleep,

01:20:23   serious sleep issues,

01:20:24   I would make a better effort than I have.

01:20:27   - Isn't it weird that you could still buy that Bedit thing?

01:20:30   - It is a little bit weird.

01:20:32   Like I wonder what they were doing with that.

01:20:36   I think it's superior in a lot of ways

01:20:39   because you don't have to wear a watch

01:20:42   and your sleep can be analyzed.

01:20:44   That's actually a nice idea,

01:20:47   but it seems like such a strange thing.

01:20:49   - FileMaker.

01:20:50   - Why is that?

01:20:51   Yeah, why is it an Apple product?

01:20:53   Why did they buy it?

01:20:54   - Like legitimately at the bottom of the Bedit website,

01:20:57   it says copyright Apple incorporated.

01:20:59   - Yeah.

01:21:00   Yeah, they bought the whole thing.

01:21:01   That'll be it tomorrow, Myke, tomorrow.

01:21:04   - That is a sleep tracking tool.

01:21:06   - Bedit 3.

01:21:07   - Surprise.

01:21:09   - Big Bedit 3 release tomorrow.

01:21:11   - So the apps that I wanted to suggest to people

01:21:13   that I know friends that use,

01:21:15   so if you wanna check them out,

01:21:17   Sleep++ and AutoSleep,

01:21:19   two recommendations that I see a lot for applications

01:21:22   to analyze your sleep data.

01:21:25   - Marly's asks, "Why isn't Apple selling

01:21:27   AFC Richmond jerseys?"

01:21:29   Now, we don't-- - That's the Lazzo reference.

01:21:31   - Yeah, exactly.

01:21:32   We don't have answers to questions like this.

01:21:34   I wish they did.

01:21:36   They should be doing this.

01:21:38   The reason I included this question in today's episode

01:21:41   is because I saw this on a 9to5Mac link to Space Explored,

01:21:46   which is, this is Zach Hall's website.

01:21:50   I think Zach runs it.

01:21:52   It's part of the overall 9to5 thing.

01:21:55   The Apple are selling a For All Mankind Mission patch set.

01:22:00   - Yes.

01:22:03   - And I find it interesting

01:22:05   and think they should do more merch.

01:22:07   And I would so much want an AFC Richmond jersey.

01:22:12   - Yeah, yeah, no, this is a place where I think Apple

01:22:18   has fallen down is working on the marketing angle

01:22:22   for some of its shows.

01:22:24   Like there should be, it's a network, right?

01:22:26   There should be like a CBS store kind of thing

01:22:29   where you can go to the Apple TV store

01:22:31   or even in the Apple store itself.

01:22:33   But if they have to set up something on the side, whatever,

01:22:36   where you can buy your morning show mug

01:22:41   and your stickers or patches or whatever

01:22:44   for For All Mankind missions.

01:22:47   Interesting that this one kind of leaked out.

01:22:49   It's a strange thing.

01:22:50   It's for season two.

01:22:51   So it's like kind of a spoiler.

01:22:52   - Yeah, I haven't looked at the patches.

01:22:54   I recommend not looking at them in detail

01:22:57   in case there's spoilers in there.

01:22:59   - And then Ted Lasso, there are so many people

01:23:02   who are sort of like making not licensed shirts and stuff.

01:23:07   You had to reference Ted Lasso

01:23:10   because people have really loved that show

01:23:12   and yet there's nothing out there.

01:23:14   I feel like if you're running a network or streaming service

01:23:18   you should probably have a store where people who are fans,

01:23:21   super fans can buy stuff related to the shows

01:23:23   that you've got.

01:23:24   And I'm surprised they haven't done that.

01:23:27   - Yeah, like Beaks in the chat is like,

01:23:29   I would love a morning show coffee mug.

01:23:31   Like that's like just a funny one to have, right?

01:23:34   Like I really would like to see them doing more

01:23:37   in this vein 'cause this is how you build super fans

01:23:40   of your properties.

01:23:41   And Ted Lasso specifically really seems like one

01:23:46   of those shows that people would like to have

01:23:48   that kind of stuff for because it has this,

01:23:51   it's not at this point, it's not a cult following

01:23:54   but it's that kind of feeling, you know,

01:23:57   like have you heard the good news

01:23:59   about Ted Lasso kind of thing?

01:24:00   Anton asks, what do you think are Apple's options

01:24:05   in regards to the iPad mini?

01:24:07   Do they kill it?

01:24:08   Do they keep it in the same form factor

01:24:09   and a chip behind everything else?

01:24:11   Or do they update it to look more like the iPad Air?

01:24:14   What do you think they're gonna do?

01:24:15   - It's always a good question 'cause it's unclear

01:24:19   how Apple feels about the iPad mini

01:24:20   but they kept it around.

01:24:22   So my guess is that the next iPad mini revision

01:24:24   will be like the iPad Air.

01:24:26   It'll be a touch ID on a button

01:24:28   and they'll move the bezels in a little bit

01:24:31   and update it with modern-ish chips

01:24:36   and maybe it'll even get the sides

01:24:41   and support Apple Pencil too, maybe even that.

01:24:43   But like, I think they'll, you know,

01:24:45   much later than you wanted, they'll update it to be

01:24:49   what their sort of state of the art for the cheaper iPads is.

01:24:54   So yeah, ultimately I think it will look like the iPad Air.

01:24:57   - I hope so, I would really love that product.

01:25:00   I think it would be really, really nice.

01:25:02   And final question today comes from Ryan.

01:25:05   Do you run apps that have Electron versions

01:25:08   or do you just use these services in a web browser?

01:25:12   So like, if a company's Mac app,

01:25:17   the only thing they offer is an Electron app,

01:25:19   do you use those or do you use them in a web browser instead?

01:25:22   - I absolutely use the apps

01:25:24   because I hate apps that run on a web browser.

01:25:27   I hate it because I use my web browser for the web

01:25:29   and then there's a tab that is in the browser

01:25:33   and you can't find it or you close.

01:25:35   I'm not somebody who keeps a million tabs open.

01:25:37   So what happens with me is then I close it.

01:25:40   I close the window and I'm like,

01:25:41   "Oh, I just lost that app that was in a tab in that window."

01:25:45   And I hate that, I hate it, I hate it, I hate it.

01:25:47   I would like to send more web apps

01:25:50   out into separate applications.

01:25:53   And I know about single site browsing things,

01:25:56   sometimes they don't work right.

01:25:58   I'll just say that, sometimes they don't work right.

01:25:59   But so I, of course I run the Electron versions

01:26:02   because they're apps and they run in their own app space

01:26:04   and I know when they're open and I know when they're closed

01:26:06   and I can control them.

01:26:08   I much prefer that, I hate running something

01:26:11   that looks like an app, but it's in a web browser, hate it.

01:26:14   - I will also just state for the record

01:26:16   that I'm not, I don't think I can tell

01:26:19   if an app is an Electron app.

01:26:21   Maybe it makes me a bad Mac user, I don't know.

01:26:24   - No, computer nerds like to,

01:26:26   well yeah, but if you open an activity monitor

01:26:28   and you look at the RAM being used,

01:26:29   I'm like, yeah, you know, I just run Slack, it's fine.

01:26:32   And it's in an app and I'm glad it's in an app.

01:26:34   I don't want it in my web browser.

01:26:37   - If you would like to send in a question

01:26:38   for us to answer at the end of the show,

01:26:40   just send in a tweet with #askupgrade.

01:26:43   Or if you are a Relay FM member,

01:26:45   just use the command question mark ask upgrade.

01:26:48   You can become a Relay FM member

01:26:49   and support upgrade directly

01:26:51   by going to getupgradeplus.com.

01:26:54   If you do that, you will get access to a special feed

01:26:57   that gives you ad-free episodes of upgrade

01:27:00   every single week with bonus content.

01:27:03   It's typically like 15 to 20 minutes more upgrade for you

01:27:07   every week with no ads.

01:27:09   And you also get an additional bonus of 20 max for 2020,

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01:27:14   along with all of the other wonderful perks

01:27:16   that you get for being a Relay FM member,

01:27:18   which includes annual specials,

01:27:20   access to the Relay FM members Discord, and so much more.

01:27:23   It is a fantastic deal.

01:27:25   Just go to getupgradeplus.com

01:27:27   and thank you so, so much to all of you upgrade

01:27:30   instead of done that.

01:27:31   We really, really appreciate your support.

01:27:33   I'd also like to thank DoorDash, KiwiCo, and Ooni

01:27:37   for their support of this show.

01:27:39   If you would like to find Jason Snell online,

01:27:41   you can, oh God, I've ruined everything for myself

01:27:44   by saying at the start of the show,

01:27:47   go to sixcolors.com or the incomparable.com,

01:27:50   or he is just @jay.

01:27:52   That's as far as I'm going from now.

01:27:54   He's @jay on Twitter.

01:27:57   You can fill in the rest for yourself.

01:28:00   I am @imike, I am Y-K-E.

01:28:03   I have been experimenting with Twitch streaming recently.

01:28:07   It's all keyboard related content.

01:28:09   If you thought to yourself,

01:28:10   "Well, I really liked it when Myke and Jason

01:28:13   "spoke about keyboards on the show before."

01:28:15   Maybe you're a keyboard person.

01:28:17   If you are, you should tune into my Twitch streams

01:28:19   at mike.live.

01:28:20   I'm gonna be doing something on Saturday the 12th

01:28:24   at 9 a.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. GMT.

01:28:28   I'm gonna be building a keyboard called a Think 6.5

01:28:31   from scratch, which includes soldering and everything.

01:28:35   So you can come and hang out then and watch me do that.

01:28:39   We'll be back next time.

01:28:41   Until then, say goodbye, co-host friend.

01:28:45   - Farewell, I'm Myke.

01:28:49   Bye, Myke.

01:28:51   - Bye, Jason Snell.

01:28:52   - No!

01:28:53   (laughing)

01:28:55   (upbeat music)

01:28:58   [ Music ]