324: The 2020 November Event Draft


00:00:00   [Music]

00:00:14   From Relay FM, this is Upgrade Episode 324.

00:00:19   And today is a surprise draft episode.

00:00:22   We're going to get to that a little later on in the show.

00:00:25   This episode of Upgrade is brought to you by Squarespace, KiwiCo,

00:00:29   and SaneBox.

00:00:30   My name is Myke Hurley and I'm joined by my partner in crime, Mr. Jason Snell.

00:00:34   Hi, Jason Snell.

00:00:35   Woop woop woop.

00:00:37   Red alert.

00:00:38   And to crime, Myke, to crime.

00:00:40   So, yeah, a few minutes, very few minutes before the show recording began,

00:00:48   Apple sent us both a little invitation to an Apple event next Tuesday, the 10th.

00:00:56   Yep.

00:00:57   So this was, uh, I thought that it would be on the 10th, uh, which it was.

00:01:03   I thought we would get an invite maybe on Wednesday.

00:01:05   Uh, we did not get an invite on Wednesday.

00:01:08   We got it today instead, which makes sense in hindsight.

00:01:11   A friend of the show, Carl's the Gray, me and him were having a

00:01:14   conversation about this earlier and he was right and I was wrong.

00:01:17   Uh, but this makes perfect sense because obviously the election's

00:01:21   going on this week in America, right?

00:01:23   So you maybe want to get your invitation out before that.

00:01:27   And, uh, that's what they've ended up doing.

00:01:29   So yeah, get out of the way of it.

00:01:31   And, uh, and we don't wait until the week before Thanksgiving.

00:01:35   Cause there's been a lot of speculation about whether Apple wants to push.

00:01:37   The reason you want to announce things.

00:01:40   Not too late is because it gives you a little of a holiday buying season

00:01:45   for whatever those new products are.

00:01:46   If you really do intend them to come out before the last day of December,

00:01:51   which apparently Apple does and that's, that's great.

00:01:54   So, um, they're gonna, they're gonna clear out the decks.

00:01:58   This has been a, an Apple product release season, like no other in that we are

00:02:04   going to get three distinct online, but three distinct events with three distinct

00:02:10   product rollouts, pretty wild.

00:02:13   And, um, and yes, because we love you Upgradients because we love you.

00:02:17   We just, uh, spent the last few minutes before beginning completely

00:02:22   rejiggering the show and, uh, adding a draft where, because there should be

00:02:26   a draft and there is because Apple gave us one minute of warning, uh, we're

00:02:32   going to draft now, which is great.

00:02:34   Cause I like having the draft be in a regular episode, not an emergency

00:02:38   episode that drops some random day.

00:02:40   That is not our usual day.

00:02:42   Yeah.

00:02:42   Jason says now he means later on in the show, we still have a bunch of

00:02:45   other stuff that we do want to get to.

00:02:47   I mean, now is in the MP3 file that you're listening to now as a part of a

00:02:52   larger part of this complete podcast breakfast, uh, it's the nutritious part

00:02:57   at the end or no, is it the dessert?

00:02:59   It's sort of a dessert.

00:03:01   Yeah.

00:03:01   We'll say that.

00:03:02   So we've obviously got a lot of stuff that we do want to do with the draft, but

00:03:07   we'll get to that a little later on in the episode, I do want to start this

00:03:10   episode of upgrade the same way that we start every episode of upgrade by

00:03:13   asking you a hashtag Snell Talk question.

00:03:15   This week's come from stitch.

00:03:17   Stitch wants to know, Jason, what happens to your old phones and other

00:03:20   devices when you upgrade to new ones?

00:03:22   What do you do with them?

00:03:23   I have bad, boring news.

00:03:27   Um, Oh, the devices never get, get returned.

00:03:31   They either get rolled down to other family members or they get put in my

00:03:39   big drawer, Oh, old tech that I keep around.

00:03:43   I have many old iPhone models in a drawer in my office.

00:03:48   Uh, some times I keep them for photography reasons or nostalgia reasons.

00:03:53   Sometimes, you know, you never know when you're going to need to take

00:03:55   a picture of the original iPhone.

00:03:56   And then also for recent models, the truth is I keep them

00:04:01   around for comparison reasons.

00:04:02   So like I did my iPhone 12 review last week, we were talking

00:04:06   about it before it posted.

00:04:07   And in that review, I've got shots of the 12 next to the 11 and the 12

00:04:12   pro next to the 11 pro and you hold on to phones like that.

00:04:17   So you can do stuff like that, or you can run, uh, uh, speed tests

00:04:21   on old models and compare.

00:04:23   Like there's lots of reasons like that.

00:04:25   So I can't, I can't be one of those people that's on the iPhone trade in

00:04:29   programming gets a new iPhone every year.

00:04:30   Cause I kind of need the old iPhone.

00:04:32   So instead what sometimes happens is my iPhone, uh, that I bought will get

00:04:37   rolled down to, let's say my wife and then I will buy a new one and I'll

00:04:40   also be able to occasionally use hers or her iPad or her Mac for, uh, testing

00:04:46   as a reference system, an older reference system.

00:04:48   And that's a thing that happens in our house.

00:04:50   Like she currently is using the, uh, 10 inch, um, iPad pro that I bought

00:04:57   because I wanted to test both.

00:05:01   And, uh, the Apple review unit that I got was the larger one and I wanted

00:05:06   the smaller one and then I bought that one and then I had that one and I

00:05:10   didn't actually want to use it.

00:05:11   So now she has it, but every now and then I go back and I'm like, I need to

00:05:14   run something on this because she was running iOS 13 when I was running the

00:05:17   14 betas and I was able to test something on her it's, this is the life of.

00:05:22   Uh, a tech writer.

00:05:24   So I would say it's abnormal.

00:05:26   There's some roll roll back.

00:05:28   There's some stuff stashed in drawers.

00:05:30   That's just how it is.

00:05:31   If you would like to send in a question for, to help us open a

00:05:36   future episode of the show, just send out a tweet with the hashtag snow talk.

00:05:39   I use the command question, Mark, snow talk in the relay FM members discord.

00:05:43   I expect today is going to be a show that is on the longer side of things.

00:05:47   If after that show you want another two and a half hours of Jason snow, go and

00:05:51   check out this week's episode of the talk show.

00:05:53   Yes, I'm there, uh, talking to John.

00:05:56   It's one of those things where I had my Friday afternoon free and I was like,

00:05:59   Oh, what am I going to do?

00:06:00   I could work on a long term project.

00:06:01   I could get ahead on 20 max for 2020.

00:06:03   I could clean up my office.

00:06:05   And then I got a text from John saying, Hey, would you like to be on the talk show?

00:06:09   And that was my afternoon.

00:06:10   Yeah, it was really great.

00:06:11   It's, it's a good conversation.

00:06:13   We had a good time.

00:06:13   I always like talking to John and I, uh, it's episode 299.

00:06:17   So I missed the 300 episodes spectacular by that much.

00:06:21   Oh, I guess now that the 300th episode will be reactions to this Apple event.

00:06:26   So that's kind of cool.

00:06:27   I feels, you know, monumental enough for John.

00:06:30   Either that, or it's going to be reactions to the election with maybe Merlin.

00:06:33   Oh yeah.

00:06:35   That would be the other way to do it.

00:06:36   Good.

00:06:36   Either way.

00:06:37   Good point.

00:06:37   Uh, we talked about baseball and not keyboards.

00:06:40   So, uh, sorry, Myke.

00:06:41   One star.

00:06:42   Yeah.

00:06:43   Five baseballs, one star.

00:06:45   There is like, so some of the things that we were going to talk about and some of the

00:06:48   things we will talk about today, we're gonna, there'll be more detail in that

00:06:52   episode because we're going to blow through some of this stuff or maybe a bit

00:06:55   faster than we were planning on, uh, because we have a draft added to the show.

00:07:00   I do have some upstream headlines that are actually really interesting.

00:07:03   So one is a bit of followup.

00:07:05   Uh, Apple TV and TV plus is going to be coming to the new Xbox consoles.

00:07:10   Uh, last time we spoke about the fact that they've come to PlayStation.

00:07:13   Um, this seems obvious and is again, as we mentioned last time, we can

00:07:18   reiterate those points, uh, a very smart move from Apple to make sure that they

00:07:22   are everywhere that their customers would want to watch their content.

00:07:25   Uh, John Stewart has signed a, uh, well, it's appearing that he is going to sign

00:07:34   a first look deal with Apple TV plus that includes a new current

00:07:39   affairs show for the service.

00:07:41   The show has been signed for multiple seasons already with the format being

00:07:45   hour long episodes focused on a single subject.

00:07:48   Um, it's doesn't seem to be like a daily show.

00:07:52   Neither does it seem to be, cause when I read this, it's like,

00:07:56   well that that's John Oliver.

00:07:57   Right.

00:07:58   John Oliver is weekly by and large.

00:08:00   Yeah.

00:08:00   The report says it won't be daily or weekly.

00:08:03   Which makes me think that it may be in somewhere in the range of somewhere

00:08:07   in between a John Oliver show and a David Letterman show where, you know,

00:08:13   David Letterman does, although they it's Netflix, so they release them in batches.

00:08:16   But, uh, you know, he does a handful of shows a year.

00:08:19   My guess is that it will be something in between that John Stewart will do a,

00:08:23   you know, maybe a, a monthly or something like that rollout.

00:08:28   It seems weird to me because like that I'm only, uh, I'm not as familiar with

00:08:33   John Stewart as Americans would be.

00:08:35   Right.

00:08:35   But I've, I've consumed a lot of his content, especially towards the tail end,

00:08:39   uh, of his run, it was the daily show, right?

00:08:41   The daily show, right.

00:08:42   The show that Trevor Noah hosts.

00:08:44   Yes.

00:08:44   And towards the end of his run was when these shows started to pivot

00:08:48   to focusing on social media.

00:08:49   So I would see a lot of John Stewart clips, you know, especially around

00:08:53   like the 2016 election kind of time.

00:08:55   And knowing the type of stuff that he is good at, which is that like newsy

00:09:00   stuff, it seems peculiar to me that they wouldn't put it on a schedule

00:09:06   because what is he going to cover that you could release in batches?

00:09:12   Well, you could, I don't think it's going to be batches because it's,

00:09:14   it's Apple.

00:09:15   So it'll be, it'll be, you know, one at a time because Apple has really

00:09:20   embraced the one at a time format.

00:09:22   I think you could argue that it's a show like John Oliver's show other than

00:09:25   the top segment that is a news deconstruction and, you know, really is

00:09:31   why they call it last week tonight.

00:09:32   The bulk of that show is this, it's timely ish, but it's something that

00:09:38   they've spent many weeks researching.

00:09:40   That's an extended piece about a single subject.

00:09:43   And so if I'm trying to imagine what John Stewart's Apple TV plus show

00:09:46   looks like, it's that it's, it's essentially like almost, almost a mini

00:09:53   documentary in a way, like something that is like those John Oliver segments,

00:09:57   but more and probably with more groundwork, you know, more like people in

00:10:03   the field and stuff is my, it's just my guess about it that that's what

00:10:06   they'll do is that it'll allow him to dive a little bit deeper.

00:10:10   And maybe if you think about like the Letterman Netflix show, where it's

00:10:13   not just the interview, but also like a pre, you know, a taped segment out

00:10:18   in the field somewhere, like in the latest season, he goes to the

00:10:21   drugstore with Kim Kardashian, right?

00:10:23   Like stuff like that.

00:10:25   So I, I, um, that my guess is it's something like that, but it may be

00:10:29   something totally different.

00:10:30   I have no idea.

00:10:31   It is though, for those who don't know an enormous coup, um, Apple brought

00:10:37   bringing John Stewart back in any form.

00:10:39   Because he was, he had a deal with HBO that was supposed to generate like

00:10:44   an animated show and they had like lots of technical problems.

00:10:47   Cause it was going to be a timely animated show and they couldn't get

00:10:50   it to work right and they pulled the plug on it, space ghost coast to coast.

00:10:53   That's what that reminds me of.

00:10:54   Yeah.

00:10:55   Yeah.

00:10:55   So he made that deal with our friend, the pep, Richard plepler, uh, who is

00:11:00   the head of HBO in that era, of course, the plep left HBO as did many

00:11:04   executives when H AT&T turned it over and made HBO into a feeder for HBO max.

00:11:09   Um, well, pleplers got a deal with Apple.

00:11:13   Stewart now is going to have a deal with Apple.

00:11:15   Apparently plepler is a, an exec producer on the project.

00:11:19   So it sounds like this is the fruit of Apple making a deal with Richard

00:11:23   plepler and then he's using his contacts to get people he knows in touch with

00:11:28   Apple.

00:11:28   Um, and this all fits in to something that we've been talking about for a long

00:11:32   time, which is that Apple TV plus is sort of playing HBO's classic game,

00:11:40   which is not a huge amount of content, but very high quality content.

00:11:44   Um, especially since HBO is not playing that game quite as much anymore because

00:11:48   of the focus now on expanding into HBO max.

00:11:51   So we're going to talk about a press release that Apple put out about Ted

00:11:54   Lasso recently, but they put some wording in this press release that 100% says

00:12:00   this is this I'll read this to you.

00:12:02   After its launch in November, 2019 Apple TV plus became the first all original

00:12:07   streaming service launch around the world as premiere more original hits

00:12:11   from receive more award recognitions faster than any other streaming service.

00:12:14   That is HBO.

00:12:15   They are saying they are HBO now, right?

00:12:18   Like we are all originals.

00:12:20   That's all we are.

00:12:21   Right.

00:12:22   And so I think that Apple have found the ability that they can call themselves at

00:12:26   now and it's because it's what they want to do and it's because HBO just isn't

00:12:30   HBO anymore.

00:12:31   Um, so this is where they are.

00:12:33   This is what they're focusing on and it's a, it's a good strategy.

00:12:36   Now, something that was in this report from the Hollywood report that I've not

00:12:39   seen reported more widely.

00:12:41   Um, but I want to mention because it's very, uh, pertinent to the stuff that we

00:12:47   talk about.

00:12:47   So quote a show runner for the forthcoming series for which Apple is expected to

00:12:52   offer a companion podcast is yet to be named.

00:12:54   So the show runner is going to have a podcast that focuses on the show itself.

00:13:01   That is super interesting to me.

00:13:03   Yeah, this is, this is a, I think a natural, I think you need to do this and

00:13:06   this is, we seen again, HBO, not to bring HBO back, but HBO did this very

00:13:10   successfully with Chernobyl and then they also did it with Watchmen a little bit.

00:13:15   And I think, I think honestly that a podcast, if you're not going to do a video

00:13:21   basically after show, you at the very least, you need to do a podcast and you

00:13:25   probably need to do one regardless of if you do an after show, I think official TV

00:13:29   series.

00:13:29   If I was at a streaming service or a TV network, it'd be like, we have to do a

00:13:34   podcast with our creative people because it's just part of it.

00:13:40   It's like the, there are never too many episodes of any of these things, right?

00:13:45   But whatever you have, you've got to have the, the extra stuff for the, for the

00:13:50   super fans, for people who just are starved for more.

00:13:52   So that'll be part of their strategy.

00:13:54   I think for everything they do going forward, to be honest.

00:13:57   Apple has ordered a third season of Ted Lasso before production has even begun on

00:14:02   season two.

00:14:03   Uh, Apple are touting critical response and Rotten Tomatoes ratings in the press

00:14:08   release.

00:14:09   This is very clearly the hit that we believed that it was.

00:14:12   Yeah.

00:14:13   They even, I mean, there's a deadline report that breaks out some stats and

00:14:17   they're good and it's interesting to see stats for Apple TV stuff, but it's funny.

00:14:21   Um, Bill Lawrence, the executive producer of the show who did scrubs and Cougar

00:14:25   town and a bunch of other stuff.

00:14:26   He said on Twitter like a week or two ago that they were working on season three,

00:14:31   two and three.

00:14:32   Um, so he, he kinda got ahead of this, but you know, what do we talk about here?

00:14:38   The entertainment industry is always ahead of the official announcements for this

00:14:43   stuff, but Apple did officially announce it.

00:14:45   And that's what I kind of find fascinating is Apple officially announced that it's

00:14:49   a, it's a season twos in production.

00:14:51   Season three has also been ordered and, um, they, they, you know, they are

00:14:57   apparently seeing really great metrics from Ted Lasso, which is, it's funny.

00:15:01   This is a show that nobody really expected, but I think you could almost have

00:15:04   written this script, right?

00:15:05   Like Apple's going to spend a lot of money trying to get buzz worthy shows, and

00:15:09   then it's going to be some show that is not the one that they spent all the money

00:15:12   on that emerges because that's sort of how it happens.

00:15:16   Well, cause it has that real feeling to it in that way.

00:15:19   Right?

00:15:19   Yeah.

00:15:19   Isn't all glitz and glamour.

00:15:21   Yeah.

00:15:21   Well, and honestly, the morning show was so hyped that did it have a chance to

00:15:24   emerge as a success?

00:15:26   No, because it was so heavily promoted that even if you watched it and liked it,

00:15:30   and I think people did, it's never going to be a, you know, breakout emergent hit

00:15:36   because it was, it was so publicized.

00:15:40   Whereas Ted Lasso had to get there on its own.

00:15:42   If something's overhyped, it's very difficult to live up to it.

00:15:45   Yeah.

00:15:46   Clearly the word of mouth is, uh, is great, but you know, the, this deadline

00:15:50   report says 25% new viewers growing overall viewership by 600% new records for

00:15:56   completion and engagement, which is interesting because, you know, Netflix

00:15:59   plays this game where they do a lot of like, this movie was watched by a lot of

00:16:01   people and it turns out it's the first five minutes for first three minutes or

00:16:04   something.

00:16:05   And their metric is really, they watched long enough for it not to have been a

00:16:08   mistake, but it's not watching it right.

00:16:11   It's, it's having chosen to start it, which is not the same.

00:16:15   So I find this interesting that this report says records for completion and

00:16:21   engagement.

00:16:22   I would imagine engagement factors in like watching the next episode and how

00:16:27   quickly do you go on to the next episode?

00:16:29   Um, and then completion is you watch the whole thing, right?

00:16:33   Which is actually what watching a TV show is not watching the first two

00:16:37   minutes.

00:16:38   Um, so yeah, it's, it's, it's great because we, we love it and we've seen the

00:16:45   word of mouth happened for it.

00:16:47   And as we mentioned last time, um, Myke and I were both on an incomparable

00:16:51   episode about it that people can check out.

00:16:53   Uh, it's great.

00:16:54   Yep.

00:16:55   Great show.

00:16:56   But it's also nice to see that that thing we thought we were witnessing is

00:16:59   actually true, that this is a word of mouth, um, growing, spreading, uh, success

00:17:05   for Apple TV+.

00:17:06   And I, I was, it's funny, I was scrolling on Twitter the other day and I saw

00:17:11   somebody with a real contrarian take who said, um, nobody knows that Apple TV+

00:17:16   exists.

00:17:16   And anybody who's talking about Ted Lasso being a word of mouth show or any of

00:17:21   their shows being word of mouth shows is in a tech bubble.

00:17:24   And, uh, and it's not true in the real world.

00:17:28   And, you know, honestly, the, their proof of it was that their, their mom or

00:17:32   something hadn't heard of it, which is itself just an anecdote and itself just

00:17:36   a bubble.

00:17:37   The irony is while I was scrolling, Lauren was texting with a friend of hers

00:17:45   who was asking, how do I get Apple TV+?

00:17:48   Because she wanted to see, she had heard about a show, actually not Ted Lasso.

00:17:53   It was long way up.

00:17:54   She'd heard about that show and said, we want to watch it.

00:17:59   How do I get Apple TV+?

00:18:00   And the truth is they had an older Samsung TV that didn't support Apple TV+

00:18:04   and they had a very old Apple TV that didn't work.

00:18:08   And her solution was, I think, to buy a Roku box for like 25 bucks.

00:18:13   So she could watch Apple TV+.

00:18:15   But, uh, so I thought that was funny that, uh, you know, everything's an

00:18:18   anecdote, but, uh, I, I got somebody coming to us because we know about Apple

00:18:24   stuff because they had heard about a show on Apple TV+.

00:18:28   So it's, you know, Apple TV+, there's still a question of like, how do I get

00:18:32   it? And that's hard and Apple is working on it by making these deals with

00:18:36   Microsoft and others to get on every platform they can possibly be on.

00:18:40   But you know, something is happening.

00:18:42   Definitely there have been some breakouts and that's sort of how

00:18:45   you have to grow the service.

00:18:46   Apple One has launched.

00:18:50   It was announced on the earnings call, which we're going to talk

00:18:53   about here in a little bit.

00:18:55   What a world we live in, Myke.

00:18:56   Bundles.

00:18:57   Apple's, Apple's bundling now.

00:18:59   We live in a bundle world.

00:19:01   It kind of launched a little bit unceremoniously in a couple of ways.

00:19:05   One, no Fitness+, yet.

00:19:07   Uh, I'm not sure why they launched without Fitness+, if Fitness+ is coming.

00:19:11   But to be honest, Fitness+ is only available in a couple of territories.

00:19:15   I think like three or four, it's not many.

00:19:18   Um, so maybe that's part of the reason, but it still just seems interesting

00:19:22   to me, like, I don't know why there was a pressure to do it now.

00:19:25   The fact that you have to do it through like the subscriptions thing, like you

00:19:29   go into settings and all of that, I would call this a soft launch.

00:19:32   That's what I would call it.

00:19:33   I feel like this is a soft launch.

00:19:35   Yeah, this is Fitness+ isn't out yet.

00:19:37   And it's not, you know, cause I hope this isn't their plan is to do it this way.

00:19:42   I assume that Apple One is going to get a lot of promotion and you're going to be

00:19:45   able to go somewhere and click and sign up for Apple One and right now you know

00:19:51   how to do it.

00:19:52   You're going to get a red badge and your settings up.

00:19:54   Yeah, exactly.

00:19:56   Right.

00:19:56   But the soft launch is the nerds know that it's there and not all of it is even

00:20:01   there yet because the Fitness+ portion of the bundle isn't actually even there.

00:20:05   So, you know, it's a soft launch and I think that maybe is the right way to do

00:20:09   it, right?

00:20:09   Like work, maybe some of the bugs out now before major Apple One marketing push

00:20:15   happens.

00:20:16   Did you sign up?

00:20:18   I did.

00:20:20   I actually signed up this morning and the reason I did it, I was thinking, well, I

00:20:25   got the free Apple TV+ that goes until February.

00:20:27   So do I want to wait?

00:20:29   And then I did the math and I know I did the math on a previous show, but I had to

00:20:32   do it again to find out that I'm already paying $30 a month.

00:20:37   So what I'm paying now without Apple TV+ is the price of Apple One Premiere

00:20:44   because I'm paying for two terabytes of storage, family music and Apple Arcade.

00:20:51   And that's 30 bucks right there.

00:20:54   So now I'm paying the same price.

00:20:56   I only get billed once.

00:20:58   Apple TV+ will remain no extra price forever.

00:21:05   And I get Apple News+, I guess.

00:21:08   So if I want to read some random articles from the Wall Street Journal or a magazine,

00:21:12   I can do that too.

00:21:13   It's just thrown in and I'll get Fitness+ when it launches.

00:21:16   So for me, it was a no brainer because I happen to be somebody who's got family

00:21:20   playing music, two terabytes of storage and is paying for Arcade because that's

00:21:25   literally the price of Apple One Premiere.

00:21:28   How about you?

00:21:30   Oh yeah, I went with the Premiere one.

00:21:33   Like, I'm already playing for like Music and Arcade and will be paying for TV+ and

00:21:38   I play for iCloud storage.

00:21:40   So it's all on the family plan.

00:21:42   Like I had the family plan anyway, and now this is all rolled into the family plan.

00:21:46   This is a thing like, me and Adina were paying for Apple Music separately, I think.

00:21:52   We then got the family thing.

00:21:53   So now we have that all together.

00:21:55   One thing that I actually did like is when I went into my subscription settings, it

00:22:01   labeled Apple Arcade as it kind of says like, oh, now this is in Apple One.

00:22:05   So it will be canceled at the end of the month, which I thought was kind of cool.

00:22:08   I didn't see that for Apple Music, but I assume it will be handled similarly, like

00:22:12   that they're just going to take care of it and I'm not going to get charged multiple

00:22:15   times.

00:22:16   It is now possible to pay for more than two terabytes of iCloud storage because you

00:22:22   can add on additional storage of supplementary charges.

00:22:26   This is one of the interesting things that's come out of this.

00:22:28   And to try and answer the millions of Ask Upgrade questions we have got and will

00:22:33   continue to get, Apple has a support document that tries to assist if you have

00:22:37   different accounts for Apple ID and iCloud and how to make this work.

00:22:41   I will put a link to that in the show notes.

00:22:43   Neither me or Jason, I believe, run iCloud this way.

00:22:47   So we don't have any more information on how you can make that work or how effective

00:22:51   it is.

00:22:51   Right.

00:22:52   Like I just have one Apple ID.

00:22:53   Do you?

00:22:54   I do.

00:22:55   Yeah.

00:22:56   So I'll put a link in the show notes to a support document.

00:22:58   Hopefully it will be of assistance to you.

00:23:00   I think the main thing is you just get to say like, hey, put my storage here and it

00:23:06   will do that for you.

00:23:07   So Apple has thought of at least some way to help you through this.

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00:25:11   Okay, so let's talk about Apple's Q4 financial results.

00:25:17   - Let's do it.

00:25:18   Everything is happening at once.

00:25:20   Everything is happening.

00:25:21   - Well, this one seemed like a foregone conclusion until it wasn't, and now it's

00:25:26   even more interesting than we ever could have imagined when this one was already

00:25:30   going to be really interesting.

00:25:31   But it's interesting in a bunch of ways that we never thought it would be.

00:25:34   - This is the quarter where Apple was going to take it on the chin because of

00:25:39   COVID, right?

00:25:40   - No iPhone, right?

00:25:41   Like that was the reason.

00:25:42   - And no iPhone shipping in a period.

00:25:45   And so, of course, it was their largest fourth financial quarter in history.

00:25:51   Sixty-four point seven billion revenue up.

00:25:53   Only 1%, just a little smidge over last year, which was previously the biggest

00:25:58   fourth financial quarter.

00:25:59   But yeah, they blew it out.

00:26:02   - So iPhone was down 20% year over year.

00:26:05   It was at 26.8 billion.

00:26:07   This was obviously going to happen, right?

00:26:10   There was no iPhone.

00:26:11   - Right.

00:26:11   Apple talked very clearly about how sales of the iPhone were actually up until mid-

00:26:16   September, year over year.

00:26:18   And what happened in mid-September?

00:26:20   Again, you have to think about it this way.

00:26:21   Year over year measurement means how do we do, obviously, but just to be clear, how do

00:26:26   we do this time this year versus this time last year, same time last year?

00:26:30   And mid-September last year, Apple sold new iPhones.

00:26:33   Mid-September this year, didn't happen, right?

00:26:36   The iPhones didn't come until October.

00:26:38   And so, what they're really saying here is until the point where you have a...

00:26:43   what they didn't use the phrase this year, but they usually do, a tough compare,

00:26:47   where it's unfavorable to compare this year to last year because something big

00:26:53   happened last year that didn't happen this year.

00:26:55   And that was the release of the iPhone 11 last year.

00:26:58   So, they didn't do that, and then iPhone sales went down because last year they had

00:27:02   new iPhone sales in the last half of September, and this year they didn't.

00:27:06   So, what they're really saying here is just you wait, and it was going great

00:27:12   until then, that until mid-September, iPhone sales were actually up from the

00:27:16   same time last year.

00:27:17   So, it's a bad number that's actually not nearly as bad when you look at it.

00:27:22   But let's also remember this for next September because if Apple releases a new

00:27:27   iPhone next September, it'll be a...

00:27:29   I don't know what's the opposite of a tough compare, a good compare,

00:27:32   a great compare because they'll be comparing this year where there was no iPhone

00:27:36   to next year when possibly there will be an iPhone and they'll get a big bump.

00:27:40   And I will bet you money that they won't apologize and say, "Well,

00:27:45   I know the iPhone looks like it did great, but it really didn't do as great as that

00:27:49   because of last year."

00:27:50   They never are going to call attention to the reverse of the tough compare,

00:27:53   but it is true.

00:27:55   It seems like the iPhone sales were doing pretty well until they...

00:27:59   I mean, they were doing pretty well, period, but the comparison to last year

00:28:03   fell apart once last year's iPhone was released.

00:28:06   - Mac, $9 billion up 29% to make an all-time record quarter.

00:28:15   In 36 years of the Mac being on sale, 144 quarters, this one in 2020 has been

00:28:24   the best one.

00:28:25   - Just to be clear, $9 billion in Mac sales is not just an all-time record,

00:28:30   but the previous all-time record for Mac sales was 7.4 billion.

00:28:37   They beat it by 1.6 billion.

00:28:40   So this is, I mean, as big a blowout quarter as you could possibly imagine

00:28:48   for the Mac, for this platform that is entirely on Intel for the last time.

00:28:57   And, yeah, big, big Mac quarter, the best.

00:29:02   It's kind of nice to see that as somebody who likes the Mac,

00:29:05   to see the Mac do this well after, you know, 36 years of life to still have its

00:29:11   best days ahead of it, perhaps.

00:29:13   - And Apple actually said that they were actually supply-constrained,

00:29:17   and Apple supply-constrained, right?

00:29:19   - Yes.

00:29:20   Yeah, they couldn't make enough Macs or iPads to sell this quarter.

00:29:27   - Talking about the iPad, $6.8 billion up 46% year over year.

00:29:34   I think it's the largest growth, right?

00:29:39   Large percentage year over year growth of any...

00:29:41   - And I feel like after our several years where we were wondering, you know,

00:29:47   we were seeing iPad sales go down and we were wondering sort of where's it going

00:29:50   to land and what's that business going to look like going forward,

00:29:54   it feels to me like we've got a pretty good idea now that the iPad is a $20

00:29:58   to $30 billion business for Apple, you know?

00:30:01   And it's going to be cyclical in some ways, right?

00:30:05   You're going to have new models that come in and drive sales,

00:30:08   and then it's going to calm down for a little while.

00:30:09   But if you look over the last, like, three-plus years, I think if you pick any

00:30:15   kind of four-quarter run, it's between $20 and $30 billion.

00:30:21   And so what I want to say is $25, that's the average.

00:30:25   I think it actually is more variable than that, but it's basically,

00:30:28   if you want to average it out, a $25 billion a year business,

00:30:33   and that's a pretty good business for the iPad, pretty good.

00:30:37   - Services, $14.5 billion up 16%, another all-time quarter.

00:30:43   I think they're going to be set in all-time quarters for a while.

00:30:46   - Services just goes up.

00:30:47   It's going to be news when they don't go up.

00:30:48   - Yeah, that will be like the iPhone news, right, when the iPhone turned its corner

00:30:52   and stopped not necessarily going down but stopped going up so much.

00:30:56   - You have that debate of, you know, where does the growth come from now

00:30:59   because it isn't coming from services.

00:31:00   Services is not just up every quarter year over year.

00:31:03   I believe services for years now has been up sequentially.

00:31:08   - Yes, which is a weird thing. - So every quarter is bigger than the last

00:31:11   because it's not a seasonal business like most of Apple's business

00:31:16   because you don't pay a big subscription fee at Christmas

00:31:21   and then not pay the rest of the year, right?

00:31:23   You just pay it every month, and so it just kind of continues to grow.

00:31:27   And they said there were a bunch of things related to this,

00:31:29   all-time number of subscriptions ever in Apple for various subscriptions,

00:31:33   and that includes all their services and all subscriptions in the App Store.

00:31:37   Like, all of those records also set because services just keeps going up for them.

00:31:44   - And wearables, $7.9 billion of revenue, up 20.8%.

00:31:50   - Yeah, so wearables is bigger than the iPad now,

00:31:53   and it is the fastest-growing segment.

00:31:56   I said this last quarter, but I'll say it again.

00:31:59   It is the fastest-growing segment in Apple's product segments.

00:32:02   It's, yes, I will grant you about half the size of services,

00:32:06   and that's why everybody's looking at services,

00:32:08   but if you look at the last couple of years of growth,

00:32:11   wearables is growing faster than services.

00:32:13   So where does the growth come from for Apple?

00:32:16   Services, it's coming from there, but wearables is on the way up,

00:32:20   and that is, you know, there's a bunch of stuff in there

00:32:24   because it's wearables, home, and accessories.

00:32:26   So, yeah, you know, iPhone cases are in there,

00:32:28   and the HomePod will be in there, but it's really,

00:32:30   primarily, as far as we can tell, driven by AirPods and by--

00:32:35   - Apple Watch. - Apple Watch, yeah.

00:32:37   - So, you know, like, this is the story

00:32:42   who had already written itself, right?

00:32:43   Oh, this quarter's gonna be a disaster 'cause iPhone,

00:32:47   but it's like, what iPhone?

00:32:49   Unbelievable that they have managed to swallow the loss

00:32:54   of the, you know, arguably some of them,

00:33:00   maybe their second most important,

00:33:01   like, few-week period of the year, right?

00:33:03   They'll have this one, and I'm sure that there is

00:33:05   a couple of weeks around Christmas,

00:33:07   which is, we don't know the dates, but Apple will know,

00:33:09   it's like, these are our two peaks, right,

00:33:11   you would assume, for iPhone sales.

00:33:14   And iPhone was 41% of the revenue for this quarter.

00:33:19   So, like, it's kind of incredible.

00:33:21   I mean, look, this wouldn't have happened

00:33:24   under regular circumstances.

00:33:26   Like, if for some reason the iPhone was three weeks late

00:33:30   last year, they would have just had an absolutely

00:33:33   horrific quarter.

00:33:35   But what's going on here is iPad and Mac sales are booming

00:33:38   for a bunch of reasons, right?

00:33:39   So you have good, compelling, and new hardware

00:33:42   in these categories.

00:33:44   You have schooling at home, working at home,

00:33:46   and one additional thought that I'd had, Jason,

00:33:49   is that Apple Silicon could be forcing some companies

00:33:52   to make larger buys now because they wanna make sure

00:33:55   they get Intel machines for a while.

00:33:57   - I was talking to somebody on one of the million podcasts

00:34:00   that I do.

00:34:01   (laughs)

00:34:02   I can't remember, honestly, if it was John Gruber

00:34:05   or if it was Dan Morin on Friday, but it was last Friday.

00:34:08   And the Osborne effect came up.

00:34:11   And what I said was, and the Osborne effect is the idea

00:34:14   that if you pre-announce anything,

00:34:16   sales stop on your current thing.

00:34:17   And I don't think Apple Silicon has an Osborne effect,

00:34:20   or at least if it does, I think it's split

00:34:22   between motivating some people to buy now

00:34:25   before a transition and other people to wait

00:34:28   because they're very excited.

00:34:29   In fact, I would wager that most buyers,

00:34:32   well, first off, most buyers don't know about Apple Silicon

00:34:34   and don't care.

00:34:35   And second, those institutional buyers,

00:34:37   if I'm buying laptops for my whole staff because of COVID,

00:34:41   first off, COVID is probably the prime mover there

00:34:43   if you're moving people out of the office.

00:34:46   But the secondary mover may be your IT guys,

00:34:48   like, you know, they're about to do a processor transition.

00:34:50   And do we really wanna have these new laptops

00:34:54   and we have no idea how they're gonna work?

00:34:56   Why don't we just buy them now?

00:34:58   - Yeah, it's like if we wanna buy a MacBook Pro

00:34:59   in three months, is it going to work for us?

00:35:03   - Yeah, yeah, what's it gonna be?

00:35:06   Like there's more uncertainty there.

00:35:07   I do think this is, so if you wanna question

00:35:11   Apple's 2021 financials, the question to ask is,

00:35:16   how much iPad and Mac sales that have happened this year

00:35:21   are deferred purchases, are purchases that would have

00:35:24   otherwise been made in 2021 and have been moved forward

00:35:28   into 2020 because of COVID-19?

00:35:31   That laptop that you weren't gonna replace for a year or two

00:35:33   got replaced now because all of a sudden it's important

00:35:37   that you have a good laptop at home

00:35:38   'cause you're working at home

00:35:39   or because your kid needs a laptop now

00:35:42   and that laptop that your kid used occasionally

00:35:45   is not good enough.

00:35:47   I think there's some of that and the question is how much?

00:35:50   I think though that the other question is,

00:35:54   has COVID-19 changed the world in a way

00:35:59   that creates more laptops and iPads in use

00:36:06   than they had before?

00:36:09   And the reason I say that is just,

00:36:11   I can also imagine that there are people who used to get by

00:36:15   with one computer at home that was shared,

00:36:19   that they now have to buy more because everybody's at home

00:36:21   or the kids used to use your computer

00:36:23   and you didn't need it much for work so it was fine,

00:36:26   but now you need it for work and they need one for school

00:36:29   and what are you gonna do?

00:36:30   And so you buy a computer for them

00:36:31   and it increases the total number.

00:36:34   Even there though, you're probably gonna be looking at

00:36:37   a reduction in sales.

00:36:40   I think it would not be unreasonable to say

00:36:42   that at some point next year,

00:36:44   iPad and Mac sales are gonna look bad year over year,

00:36:47   even if they're actually pretty good historically,

00:36:50   just because I do think that a lot got packed into this year

00:36:55   where people are like,

00:36:56   "Oh, geez, I really do need this laptop for my home

00:37:01   because of my kids or because of my work or whatever."

00:37:03   So we'll have to see about that,

00:37:05   but it's really great for Apple right now.

00:37:08   And what's also interesting is the analysts

00:37:10   on the phone call asked Apple if they thought

00:37:13   that those sales would go down in the holiday quarter

00:37:17   because of the phenomenon I just described.

00:37:20   And Apple said, "Nope, we think we're gonna grow

00:37:22   double digits in those categories next quarter too."

00:37:26   So if there is a fall coming where Apple,

00:37:31   we're all gonna point back to 2020 and say,

00:37:33   "Yeah, it's natural to come down off that high.

00:37:36   They couldn't keep selling that level forever."

00:37:38   That may happen, but it doesn't seem to be happening

00:37:40   in the holiday quarter.

00:37:41   - No, like Apple's seem and like from comments

00:37:44   that Tim Cook was making as well, right?

00:37:46   They seem to believe that this will not be a fluke

00:37:49   and that we're gonna stabilize

00:37:51   to a different normality afterwards.

00:37:54   I don't remember the exact words that he used,

00:37:56   but it was along the lines of like,

00:37:57   "We're not just gonna bounce back

00:37:59   into the regular working patterns that people had.

00:38:02   That's just not gonna be the way it is anymore.

00:38:04   There will be an element of working from home

00:38:07   or working from different locations

00:38:08   that we didn't have before

00:38:10   because people are gonna start to get used to that.

00:38:12   Companies will get used to the cost savings

00:38:14   that they can see."

00:38:16   We, you know, one of the longer lasting effects

00:38:20   from COVID-19 is going to be working patterns

00:38:24   for many people in office environments.

00:38:28   There's going to be significant

00:38:29   long-term ramifications from that.

00:38:31   - We can argue about how many and nobody really knows,

00:38:35   but I can't see the argument

00:38:37   that it's all just gonna go back to the way it was.

00:38:39   That's not gonna happen.

00:38:40   - It will not.

00:38:41   I mean, because there have been so many companies,

00:38:42   like especially in, I mean, especially in the tech space,

00:38:45   right, that have already said like,

00:38:46   "All right, we've changed our policy going forward

00:38:48   and now people can work from home if they want to,"

00:38:51   which was not a thing that they had before.

00:38:53   Even Apple, right, have been making comments

00:38:55   around the fact that this has worked better for them

00:38:57   than they thought it would.

00:38:59   - And here's my quick argument

00:39:00   because I know there's the argument,

00:39:02   and I've made it before,

00:39:03   which is there's some boss somewhere who's like,

00:39:04   "But I wanna see my people."

00:39:06   And I get that.

00:39:07   And that is definitely gonna be a thing

00:39:09   to pull people back into the office

00:39:11   and stories about the magics of collaboration

00:39:14   and serendipity, which I admit is a thing,

00:39:17   but also can be a thing online.

00:39:20   But what I wanted to say is never underestimate

00:39:23   the power of the CEO and the CFO

00:39:27   looking at the money they're spending on rent

00:39:29   and saying, "We don't need to spend money on rent anymore."

00:39:34   'Cause rent, especially if you're in a big city somewhere,

00:39:39   rent is super expensive.

00:39:41   And I say that as somebody who worked south of market

00:39:43   in San Francisco, super expensive.

00:39:46   And if, I mean, I was making these arguments

00:39:49   10 years ago at IDG,

00:39:50   but if they're looking at their office space

00:39:53   in downtown San Francisco and not saying,

00:39:56   "Why are we doing this again?"

00:39:57   And then I would be surprised.

00:40:00   And I think in a lot of cases, the CFO saying,

00:40:04   "No, we need to do remote work

00:40:05   because do you realize how much we're spending on rent?"

00:40:09   May trump the argument of the manager saying,

00:40:13   "But I wanna see my people

00:40:14   because serendipity at the coffee machine."

00:40:17   So we'll see, but I think the answer is gonna be

00:40:21   some change will happen.

00:40:22   We don't know whether it's 80% or 20%,

00:40:24   but somewhere in there.

00:40:26   So we'll see how that affects Apple's business,

00:40:28   but it does, I think, affect the profile

00:40:31   of what kind of products get sold.

00:40:32   - All right, this episode is brought to you

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00:42:29   of this show and Relay FM.

00:42:32   It is time for the event draft.

00:42:36   (humming)

00:42:37   Surprise, it's a draft.

00:42:39   So we'll start with the rules.

00:42:41   We're gonna do eight rounds, 16 overall picks,

00:42:44   five rounds on Mac picks, three rounds on non-Mac picks.

00:42:48   The winner of the previous draft gets first pick,

00:42:51   surprise, surprise, as Jason Snell.

00:42:53   For an item to count, it must be either clearly announced

00:42:55   on stage or on a slide during the presentation.

00:42:59   Stephen Hackett will adjudicate in case

00:43:01   of a scoring stalemate between the two of us,

00:43:03   but we will score ourselves.

00:43:05   No half points are awarded, no points for pre-announced

00:43:09   or incredibly obvious items.

00:43:11   The points awarded on the episode of final,

00:43:15   and there will be a tie breaker question as well.

00:43:18   I believe we're probably gonna redo

00:43:20   our tie breaker question from last time,

00:43:22   but we'll get to that in a moment.

00:43:25   2020 results so far have been WWDC September and October,

00:43:30   all taken home by Mr. Jason Snell.

00:43:33   So in this November event, your boy here is fighting

00:43:38   for some honor to try and not have this be

00:43:42   an absolute whitewash for the year.

00:43:44   - Yeah, no, it's good.

00:43:46   - Is it good?

00:43:48   I don't know.

00:43:49   - I mean, it's great.

00:43:50   It's great. - It's great for you.

00:43:51   It's great if you're the winner.

00:43:51   - I like that you, I appreciate one,

00:43:54   that you get a chance to reclaim some honor,

00:43:56   and two, that if you do, it will leave me

00:44:00   as still being the winner.

00:44:01   - I'm sure you also appreciate the opportunity

00:44:03   to take four for four.

00:44:04   - You know, that would be great,

00:44:07   but honestly, I am also concerned.

00:44:09   I'm not gonna throw it or anything.

00:44:10   I'm gonna compete here, but if you get it,

00:44:11   I'm gonna be happy for you because this isn't the rookies.

00:44:14   We're gentlemen over here.

00:44:15   - There has never been a November event

00:44:18   in the history of the draft.

00:44:20   So I cannot go on previous results.

00:44:22   This is a first.

00:44:23   - Uncharted territory.

00:44:24   The winner of this event has the title

00:44:27   of the only winner of a November event.

00:44:29   - The November draft champion.

00:44:31   - Chairman?

00:44:32   No, no, no.

00:44:34   - Tiebreaker question.

00:44:36   We're gonna do an over under.

00:44:39   - Yeah.

00:44:40   - And I think that we decided that you would pick the,

00:44:45   we're gonna do the duration of the event,

00:44:47   that you would pick the number, and then I get over under.

00:44:50   - Yeah.

00:44:51   60 minutes, Myke.

00:44:53   - Gosh darn you, Jason Snow.

00:44:57   You picked the absolute worst.

00:45:00   - That's my job.

00:45:02   - I'm gonna say over 60 minutes.

00:45:04   - Okay, all right.

00:45:05   All right.

00:45:08   - I'm looking for like 61 minutes here.

00:45:10   - It might be, it might be just exactly like that.

00:45:13   - That's kind of what I'm going for.

00:45:14   - Over 60 minutes, so if it is more than 60, zero, zero,

00:45:19   Myke gets it.

00:45:21   - I'm actually gonna go out on a limb here.

00:45:23   This is not a prediction.

00:45:24   So I actually think this will be the longest of the three,

00:45:28   because I imagine many more demos

00:45:30   are much more technical information

00:45:34   than we have seen in any of the other events.

00:45:37   And more software demos and stuff like that.

00:45:41   And even going over Big Sur again, I can imagine doing so.

00:45:46   That's kind of what I'm thinking.

00:45:48   - But just to be clear, 60 minutes and zero seconds.

00:45:50   So if it's, when I say it's more than 60 minutes,

00:45:52   if it's 60 minutes and 10 seconds,

00:45:54   you get it.

00:45:55   - Yep, yep.

00:45:55   It's the 60 minute mark, right?

00:45:57   Like that's where it's at.

00:45:59   - That's right.

00:46:00   - All right.

00:46:01   - I don't wanna win this one with 60 minutes and 32 seconds,

00:46:04   'cause that was not the intent.

00:46:05   That's more than an hour.

00:46:07   You get it.

00:46:07   - Okay, should we start?

00:46:11   - I guess we're gonna do so, yeah.

00:46:14   So five Mac, three non Mac, that's what we decided.

00:46:18   - That's what we decided.

00:46:19   And you get first.

00:46:20   - And I get first pick.

00:46:21   Oh boy, we're just making this up as we go along.

00:46:23   - Just for some clarity, just a little behind the scenes.

00:46:27   We have had a document that we have made reference to

00:46:30   over the last couple of months of like this big document

00:46:35   that we create, which is full of draft picks

00:46:37   that we put in and then we pick from those.

00:46:40   And the thing that's been interesting this year

00:46:42   is we created a document three months ago

00:46:44   and have been reusing sections of it

00:46:47   because we have had some version of these Mac picks

00:46:51   since September in this document, right?

00:46:54   Because we've been waiting for this to occur.

00:46:56   So we were about to start the show today

00:47:00   and the Apple event, we start at 9 a.m. Pacific,

00:47:03   the Apple event invite came out at 901,

00:47:06   so we had enough time to go in.

00:47:07   So we basically spent half an hour

00:47:10   putting and flushing out these picks

00:47:13   and to get to where we are right now.

00:47:17   So this is the least preparation we've had for a draft ever

00:47:21   and we'll see what that will end up doing.

00:47:24   - So with my first pick, I'm gonna go,

00:47:26   'cause it's the first pick with one that's a pretty easy one

00:47:28   although again, there's a chance that it's wrong,

00:47:31   which is first Apple Silicon Mac is a laptop.

00:47:35   - This was my first pick too.

00:47:37   - Yeah, that's why I had to do it.

00:47:39   - Mm-hmm.

00:47:40   - Had to do it, yeah.

00:47:41   I think there are rumors about a Apple Silicon iMac

00:47:44   and I think that makes sense,

00:47:46   especially since the small iMac

00:47:49   is in desperate need of an update,

00:47:50   the idea that Apple is gonna refashion the iMac

00:47:53   and we're gonna get a new iMac design

00:47:55   and it's gonna happen with Apple Silicon.

00:47:56   It's gonna be a different size,

00:47:58   like a 24-inch iMac or something like that.

00:48:00   Great, love it.

00:48:02   Rumor suggests that's a 2021 thing.

00:48:04   I think it's possible, but it's more likely to me

00:48:07   that this is gonna be a laptop of some sort.

00:48:09   It feels to me like that is, for a first release,

00:48:13   Apple's work with Apple Silicon up to now on the iPad

00:48:17   suggests that making something

00:48:18   that will work in a laptop design

00:48:21   should be well within reach for them.

00:48:24   So that's my guess.

00:48:26   And people who say that the developer kit

00:48:29   was the first Apple Silicon Mac, it doesn't count.

00:48:31   - Nah, it doesn't count.

00:48:32   - But that's what I mean here.

00:48:34   It also means, I suppose, that if they announce two,

00:48:38   if the first one is not a laptop, I don't get it,

00:48:40   but if they announce two and the first one is a laptop,

00:48:42   I do, I don't know.

00:48:43   - Yeah, if they have an iMac and a laptop

00:48:45   and they show the iMac first.

00:48:47   But I think it's pretty clear,

00:48:50   I mean, it seems like a foregone conclusion,

00:48:52   that there will be an Apple Silicon laptop.

00:48:56   What that's gonna be, we'll find out.

00:48:58   But it's very clear that that's going to be

00:49:01   in the first selection, because it makes so much sense.

00:49:06   - Yeah, it feels like it to me.

00:49:07   - My first pick is that Apple Silicon Macs

00:49:09   are significantly faster than what they replace.

00:49:14   Now, significantly, we may have to have

00:49:19   some discussion around that,

00:49:21   but I think we can come to a decision on that pretty easily.

00:49:25   Especially because, look, as we know,

00:49:28   all Apple have to do is put the current A14

00:49:31   in a MacBook and it's going to blow it away.

00:49:36   Especially, I mean, if they do create a MacBook,

00:49:39   I mean, no matter what they put in there,

00:49:42   it will be faster than what it is replacing,

00:49:44   which is the now dead 12-inch MacBook.

00:49:47   - Yeah, but even if they, the way I'm reading this is,

00:49:50   they're gonna make some speed claims

00:49:51   and they're not gonna be minor.

00:49:53   And since this isn't the Ricky's,

00:49:56   we're just gonna leave it at this

00:49:58   and we'll agree what's significant next time.

00:50:00   Because I think we'll know, and honestly,

00:50:04   I don't see how Apple would not do this.

00:50:06   They're not gonna make claims that aren't significant.

00:50:08   They're gonna say, this is 20% faster than something.

00:50:11   - They're not gonna be like, oh, this thing,

00:50:13   it does about as much as the last one.

00:50:15   - If they make no speed claims at all, you don't get it.

00:50:18   But I think they will make speed claims.

00:50:19   And that's why I think it's a good first pick.

00:50:21   - If they don't make speed claims,

00:50:23   I think that they maybe need to reassess what they're doing.

00:50:27   - Cancel the event, cancel, cancel, yeah, exactly.

00:50:30   - I'm not sure that that would be the right move.

00:50:31   I mean, because look, this is the coming out party, right?

00:50:35   For what they can do here.

00:50:37   They need to make sure that they're picking

00:50:40   whatever it is they're picking

00:50:41   to ensure that they can say, don't worry,

00:50:44   this stuff is so much faster.

00:50:46   It's so fast that when you run it in emulation,

00:50:49   it doesn't even feel any different.

00:50:51   Like we're good to go here.

00:50:54   - Yep, makes sense.

00:50:56   - Which is I can pick.

00:50:57   - Oh boy.

00:51:00   I am going to say

00:51:08   Apple Silicon Mac has the same design

00:51:12   as the Mac it replaces.

00:51:13   Now, let me explain what I mean by this.

00:51:16   I don't think what we're going to see

00:51:19   is a new Mac with a new design.

00:51:22   And the MacBook is the one that we keep talking about

00:51:24   because there's the old MacBook and the new MacBook.

00:51:27   What I really mean here is

00:51:29   I think this is going to be a reassuring product

00:51:34   that looks like an Intel Mac, but isn't.

00:51:37   And not a we've totally rethought what a laptop could be.

00:51:41   - Even if they announced a MacBook Pro

00:51:45   and it was a 14 inch MacBook Pro,

00:51:47   you would still get it as long.

00:51:49   Basically what we're looking for here is

00:51:51   that the first Apple Silicon Macs

00:51:53   have the same design language.

00:51:55   - No big design deviation, right?

00:51:57   That's like a 24 inch iMac with a new look.

00:52:01   I think we're going to know it when we see it here, right?

00:52:03   Like either it's going to look like any other Mac

00:52:06   and you would never know that it had Apple Silicon in it

00:52:09   or Apple has said,

00:52:10   "Nope, the Apple Silicon Macs are totally different."

00:52:13   And I'm picking the first one for this first round

00:52:16   that there'll be a little more reassuring.

00:52:17   Again, maybe not.

00:52:19   These are not guaranteed,

00:52:22   but I think that that's more likely right now.

00:52:25   - As much as I want big, bold, and new design changes,

00:52:28   I'm not confident we're going to get those right now.

00:52:32   So like I'm following along with you here,

00:52:35   which is why for my second pick,

00:52:37   I am going with Apple Silicon Macs

00:52:40   has significantly more battery life.

00:52:42   - Yeah.

00:52:43   - Because this is one of the reasons

00:52:44   to keep them looking similar

00:52:47   and not making something that deviates

00:52:49   because then you can have these things look similar,

00:52:53   but have different internals.

00:52:55   When they have different internals,

00:52:56   you could maybe make the battery bigger

00:52:58   or keep the battery the same

00:52:59   and now it's much more energy efficient.

00:53:03   But we've even heard about it on this very show

00:53:06   that Apple Silicon is about energy efficiency, right?

00:53:08   That's one of the things that it's good at

00:53:10   and one of the things that it's best at, right?

00:53:12   We've had Apple tell us that on this show.

00:53:15   And so I think that that is going to translate

00:53:18   into the laptops having much, much better battery life

00:53:22   than what they currently have.

00:53:23   - I think it's completely logical.

00:53:26   I guess my only question would be, what if Apple...

00:53:29   We don't know how Mac OS runs on these and we don't...

00:53:34   Like I would expect it to, I think it's a good choice.

00:53:39   The reason that I don't think it's a gimme

00:53:41   is because it's Apple and battery life.

00:53:44   Apple makes claims, they make all sorts of different claims.

00:53:48   It's possible that they focused on performance

00:53:50   and not battery life.

00:53:51   It's also possible that they focused on both

00:53:55   or that they focused on battery life over performance.

00:53:57   We don't know.

00:53:58   But I have a hard time seeing them go to ARM laptops

00:54:02   and not pump up the battery life claim.

00:54:07   I have a hard time seeing it. - This is right there.

00:54:07   - So I think it's a good pick.

00:54:08   Yeah, it is, yeah.

00:54:10   - All right, round three.

00:54:13   - Oh boy, oh boy.

00:54:15   I'm gonna go with a visit to the chip design lab.

00:54:21   - Okay, seems like a good one.

00:54:22   - This was in our Mac list,

00:54:23   even though it's a little bit of a stagecraft thing.

00:54:26   I think we're gonna go back into the chip design lab place

00:54:29   that we've seen before and hear some talk about

00:54:33   Apple Silicon and specifically what they're doing

00:54:35   with these systems and how it's building on the legend

00:54:38   of Apple Silicon or whatever.

00:54:40   I do think that we're gonna go back down there.

00:54:43   Just seems like a natural to me.

00:54:45   We've been down there a couple of times already.

00:54:47   So I feel like we'll go back.

00:54:50   But again, no guarantees of that, right?

00:54:52   They did that at WWDC.

00:54:54   I would like to believe that they're gonna do a deep dive

00:54:58   about Apple Silicon, but who knows?

00:55:01   And they could do it like outside on the rainbow stage

00:55:03   or something and then I don't get it.

00:55:05   - It seems like they're gonna go to the lab though.

00:55:06   - Yeah, I would think so.

00:55:08   - iOS app on a Mac demo.

00:55:15   - Yeah. - Is my third pick.

00:55:17   I think we're gonna see a lot of this.

00:55:18   I think this will be,

00:55:19   personally I think this would be a more extended demo

00:55:23   of showing iOS apps, a bunch of them,

00:55:26   iOS apps running in conjunction with Mac apps.

00:55:29   You got multiple windows.

00:55:30   I think this is going to be a probably

00:55:34   Craig Federighi led decent demo.

00:55:38   Something maybe more akin to what you would see

00:55:40   at like a WWDC or a more typical event, right?

00:55:44   Where someone would go and do the demo

00:55:46   on the side of the stage type thing.

00:55:48   I think that this is something that deserves it.

00:55:51   And if they really want to sell everybody on,

00:55:54   they should really show this running, running well.

00:55:56   I expect we'll see some third parties here

00:55:58   and stuff like that.

00:55:59   But in the same way, this isn't it,

00:56:01   but I bet they're gonna have someone,

00:56:04   they'll do a demo, they'll go to the app store, right?

00:56:07   They'll download, like, oh, look,

00:56:09   all of our apps are all in one place.

00:56:11   You just download them so quickly.

00:56:12   And then they're, I think they're gonna do

00:56:15   the whole nine yards when it comes to this

00:56:18   because this is monumental.

00:56:22   This is so incredibly important.

00:56:26   Like for me personally, like this is one of,

00:56:30   if not the most important thing that they would show off

00:56:32   at an event like this, because it completely changes

00:56:36   what a Mac is capable of, right?

00:56:39   It can do anything at that point.

00:56:41   I'm very excited about this feature, Jason.

00:56:45   Like really I am.

00:56:46   And I think they're gonna give it a lot of time.

00:56:48   - Sounds good.

00:56:49   I think so too.

00:56:50   This is one of our late ads that we did before the show

00:56:53   when I was trying to think of things

00:56:54   that would be in the presentation.

00:56:55   And I liked this one.

00:56:56   I think that if you're gonna have iOS apps

00:56:59   running on Apple Silicon Macs, you need to show that.

00:57:01   Be the first one to show that and how it works.

00:57:04   And I think that's a natural, great pick.

00:57:07   All right, I am going, oh.

00:57:13   Round four, to pick, I wanna do one

00:57:18   about the processor branding.

00:57:21   - Okay.

00:57:22   - But I don't know what the processor branding

00:57:25   is going to be.

00:57:26   - There's been some rumors and stuff about some namings.

00:57:30   So like, I'll just lay these out there

00:57:32   in case people don't know.

00:57:33   There was a China Times report

00:57:35   citing supply chain sources about the chips being based

00:57:41   on the A14 and that there would be three overall variants

00:57:45   of the A14, two of them would power the Macs.

00:57:48   The A14X would include the iPad Pro and a laptop,

00:57:52   most likely the MacBook, and an A14T for an iMac

00:57:57   with reports that this would also get an Apple-made GPU

00:58:01   but may not be available until the first half of 2021.

00:58:05   I'm saying all of this, but it may or may not affect

00:58:07   the draft right now.

00:58:08   But yeah, so, but you know, the thing that is interesting

00:58:11   for me from here is if they make a MacBook Pro,

00:58:14   what chip does that get?

00:58:17   Does that also get the T chip?

00:58:19   But it just doesn't have the discrete GPU, I don't know.

00:58:24   But yeah, that's what I wanted to just get that out there

00:58:26   in case people aren't familiar with that report.

00:58:29   - And I think my struggle with this is what I want

00:58:34   to have happen versus what I think will happen.

00:58:39   And what I think will happen,

00:58:40   and this goes into some of my other picks too,

00:58:42   is I think Apple is going to set a lower bar for itself

00:58:45   this time out and release a laptop that's using the A14X,

00:58:50   which will also be used in an iPad Pro.

00:58:55   So I'm going to pick that.

00:58:56   Not high confidence here, I just like it better

00:58:59   than my other options, which is that Apple's going to throw

00:59:01   away the A14 branding or that it's going to be like

00:59:04   an A14T or something like that.

00:59:06   So I'm going to say A14X in that it's a concept

00:59:09   that we're comfortable with and that it will probably also

00:59:12   be in the iPad Pro, whether that's introduced next week

00:59:15   or in the spring, that that's a, for those who don't know,

00:59:18   the A14X is the iPad chip.

00:59:21   It has traditionally had eight cores,

00:59:23   four cores that are performance cores

00:59:26   and four that are efficiency cores.

00:59:28   That's more cores than are in the iPad Air

00:59:31   and the iPhone versions, the A14.

00:59:35   So more cores means more power.

00:59:38   And Apple with the A12X boasted about how the iPad Pro

00:59:42   in 2018 was already faster than almost every Windows laptop.

00:59:46   So an A14X in a Mac laptop would be faster

00:59:50   than almost every laptop that's out there,

00:59:52   including most of Apple's.

00:59:54   And that's probably good enough.

00:59:56   And then they use, then they save some space to unveil

01:00:00   an even more powerful Apple Silicon chip next year sometime.

01:00:04   So not super confident, but confident enough to pick it

01:00:08   over the other options.

01:00:09   And I did want to pick a branding choice here.

01:00:12   - I think one of the things that will be important

01:00:14   to remember and like, just to think about going forward

01:00:18   is to not refer to the X chip as the iPad chip

01:00:21   that the Mac is also getting,

01:00:23   'cause that's obviously not what Apple will be doing.

01:00:25   It is the chip that the iPad Pro

01:00:28   and an Apple Silicon Mac will get.

01:00:30   It's not like they design it for the iPad Pro

01:00:33   and then move it over.

01:00:34   It's just like, no, this is a really powerful chip.

01:00:36   And we put it in a couple of different machines.

01:00:38   - It's the legacy and the X basically means,

01:00:41   more cores and then there may be other means.

01:00:44   I think it's entirely possible that Apple is going to unveil

01:00:47   new branding for the A series and,

01:00:50   or the A series on the Mac and call it something other

01:00:53   than Apple Silicon.

01:00:54   But at least I would like that.

01:00:57   I think that would be fun to have some new brand name.

01:01:01   - I think Apple Silicon is a thing that's going to remain

01:01:03   just because they have started calling all of their chips

01:01:06   Apple Silicon now.

01:01:07   - Yes.

01:01:08   I feel like it feels a little bit more like this is.

01:01:11   Yeah, like this is what they've decided and they like it

01:01:13   and it's got their name in it and they made it.

01:01:15   So why wouldn't they do that?

01:01:17   It's Apple through and through.

01:01:18   So yeah, anyway, what do you have?

01:01:21   - All right, I'm gonna make our first pick

01:01:23   for what we actually think one of these Macs is gonna be.

01:01:26   - Yeah.

01:01:27   - Return of the MacBook.

01:01:29   - Return of the MacBook.

01:01:32   Now, so you mean,

01:01:35   a non pro. - It's gonna be named MacBook.

01:01:37   - This is where I struggle.

01:01:41   This is where I struggle, right?

01:01:43   And I don't know if you've been,

01:01:44   I'm sure you've been thinking about this too.

01:01:46   - Yeah.

01:01:47   - But like this is that classic,

01:01:49   like conundrum we get ourselves into on this show

01:01:51   where we say, surely now if you're ever gonna rebrand

01:01:55   these things would be the time to do it.

01:01:57   And the reason that made me think of this was I was listening

01:02:00   to a really excellent recent episode of Mac Power Users

01:02:03   where they, I think the episode was called

01:02:06   grading the Intel era, where David and Steven

01:02:10   were looking back at how Intel, the whole Intel era went,

01:02:14   culminating with the transition.

01:02:16   And that was when they changed the names, right?

01:02:19   Or am I thinking back further?

01:02:22   - Nope.

01:02:23   - Yeah.

01:02:24   - It was Intel transition.

01:02:26   - They were Power Books, weren't they?

01:02:26   - And everything went from Power Book to MacBook

01:02:28   and Power Mac to Mac Pro.

01:02:30   - Yeah, so everything changed then.

01:02:33   And so history could dictate that now would be the time.

01:02:38   And I could imagine Apple Book,

01:02:41   but I'm not convinced of that.

01:02:43   - Well, I think you've got two ways to go with this pick.

01:02:46   You can either hinge it on the MacBook

01:02:48   and that that name is coming back,

01:02:50   or you can take the name out of your pick

01:02:52   and make it about a light laptop

01:02:56   that's smaller than the MacBook Air.

01:03:00   - Return of a MacBook style computer.

01:03:03   - Style, return of a MacBook style laptop.

01:03:07   - Yeah, that's what I'm going for.

01:03:08   - We know what that means.

01:03:09   That means that if it's a MacBook Air, you don't get it.

01:03:11   If it's just a MacBook Air, you don't get it.

01:03:13   - And I don't think that that is it, right?

01:03:15   I think that Apple know,

01:03:17   look, they tried messing around with the MacBook Air before

01:03:20   and it bit them badly.

01:03:21   Leave that computer.

01:03:23   - I would like to believe that,

01:03:26   and it's put up the X-Files, I wanna believe.

01:03:29   I would like to believe that all of our wondering

01:03:33   in the last five years about the MacBook

01:03:36   turns out to be absolutely true,

01:03:38   that the MacBook was always gonna be the vehicle

01:03:41   in which Apple brought an ARM chip to the Mac,

01:03:44   'cause it always looked like it.

01:03:45   It always looked like it shouldn't have

01:03:47   an Intel processor in it.

01:03:48   It should have an ARM processor in it.

01:03:51   And I would love for that story of a product

01:03:54   that I always really liked, but was always disappointing.

01:03:58   I would love for it to come back around

01:04:00   and suddenly make sense with a new 12-inch MacBook

01:04:04   that is powered by Apple Silicon

01:04:06   and is faster than any existing.

01:04:08   Imagine a MacBook that's faster than all

01:04:11   currently shipping MacBook Pros.

01:04:13   How about that?

01:04:14   Wouldn't that be something? - Oh my God,

01:04:15   can you imagine?

01:04:16   - That would be the biggest troll move.

01:04:18   Remember that computer you didn't like?

01:04:20   Well, now it's the best one.

01:04:22   (laughing)

01:04:24   - Oh my God, Jason, that would be so much fun.

01:04:28   I would love that.

01:04:29   I would really, really love that.

01:04:31   Seems possible.

01:04:32   - Seems possible.

01:04:34   - Seems possible.

01:04:35   Oh man, that you've just put a really fun idea

01:04:37   in my head now.

01:04:38   I like that.

01:04:38   I like the thought of that very, very much.

01:04:40   All right, this is your final pick in the Mac round.

01:04:45   - In the Mac round.

01:04:46   I, oh boy, there are some choices here.

01:04:49   None of them I love.

01:04:51   I am, oh boy.

01:04:58   - Let's say Big Sur release date named.

01:05:03   - I had this.

01:05:08   I had this.

01:05:09   - Right, that they'll say, you know,

01:05:13   and they'll have Mac OS Big Sur, which is great.

01:05:15   And it's shipping on November 27th or November 20th

01:05:20   or whenever they say, November 25th.

01:05:22   Happy Thanksgiving, November 26th.

01:05:25   You get a turkey and Big Sur.

01:05:28   I don't know.

01:05:29   I don't know what the answer is,

01:05:30   but I feel like this is the time to say,

01:05:32   Big Sur's coming out.

01:05:34   Yeah.

01:05:35   - All right.

01:05:38   I think that's gonna happen.

01:05:40   'Cause like where is that operating system?

01:05:42   11.0.1 is now in beta, right?

01:05:44   Like this operating system has been,

01:05:47   has spent a very long time.

01:05:48   - It's on the MacBook.

01:05:49   - Yeah, it needs to come out now.

01:05:53   I've seen a lot of developers talking about this,

01:05:55   which is really interesting.

01:05:56   And I believe that you and John Gruber

01:05:58   were talking about this too,

01:05:59   that like these types of gaps between iOS and Mac OS

01:06:03   might not be possible anymore

01:06:06   if iOS apps will run on the Mac.

01:06:09   They may have to release them at the same time

01:06:11   or much closer.

01:06:12   - Or they may be mandatory in some ways

01:06:15   for the initial release,

01:06:16   'cause you might wanna batten down the hatches

01:06:17   on iOS first.

01:06:18   And then my point,

01:06:20   and I was just thinking about it the other day

01:06:23   and then I talked to John about it,

01:06:24   is once Mac OS can run iOS apps,

01:06:28   Mac OS development is directly tied to iOS development

01:06:31   in a way it never was before.

01:06:33   Because you're running apps

01:06:34   that are requiring a specific version of iOS on Mac OS.

01:06:38   And that means that even more than before,

01:06:41   they need to run in tandem.

01:06:43   That doesn't necessarily mean Mac OS and iOS

01:06:45   get released at the same time,

01:06:48   but it does probably mean that Mac OS

01:06:52   has to move in lockstep with iOS

01:06:54   and would want to, right?

01:06:56   If there are iOS bugs that need to be fixed,

01:06:59   those are bugs that need to be fixed

01:07:00   in essentially the version of iOS

01:07:02   that's inside of Mac OS that runs those apps.

01:07:05   So I would think that we're gonna have

01:07:06   a lot of weird compatibility conversations about that,

01:07:10   but it's just something to keep in mind

01:07:11   that they are sharing an app platform

01:07:16   as of Apple Silicon.

01:07:17   They are running apps.

01:07:19   Mac OS, Big Sur on Apple Silicon, and iOS

01:07:23   are running the same apps.

01:07:25   So they're sharing that platform,

01:07:27   and that has ramifications for OS releases.

01:07:30   I think though, it also may mean

01:07:32   you see what we've been seeing all along,

01:07:34   which is you put it out for the phone and the iPad.

01:07:38   And then you also are working on Mac OS

01:07:41   and you make sure that Mac OS

01:07:42   gets the compatibility updates,

01:07:45   but you could leave that a little bit.

01:07:47   And then Mac OS people just be sad.

01:07:49   They're like, "Oh, I wanna use that new version of that app."

01:07:51   It's like, "Mm, not yet."

01:07:53   And app developers are gonna have to think about that too.

01:07:55   So it's gonna be a new world,

01:07:57   but it's something to keep in mind

01:07:59   that they are interlinked in a way

01:08:01   that they haven't been up to now.

01:08:02   - My final pick, a new Mac ships in November.

01:08:09   - I was really torn on this one.

01:08:12   - I don't think they would do it now

01:08:13   if they weren't shipping until December.

01:08:15   - Well, okay, so it's an event on November 10th.

01:08:19   So the normal thing would be a Friday pre-order

01:08:23   and shipping on the 20th.

01:08:26   Although with Macs, sometimes it's not even that.

01:08:29   Sometimes it's just like they're shipping Friday.

01:08:31   - Yeah, it's like off you go, available now.

01:08:35   - I think your choice is the most likely,

01:08:38   but we did have ships in December

01:08:40   and there's a part of me that thinks

01:08:41   everybody's gonna get really excited.

01:08:43   And then they're gonna say,

01:08:44   "And congratulations, you'll be able to get them

01:08:46   December 4th."

01:08:47   (laughing)

01:08:48   And I'm gonna be like, "Oh, all right, okay, I guess."

01:08:52   But I hope you're right.

01:08:53   I hope that it's a November ship for this stuff.

01:08:56   And if, again, if there are multiple ship dates,

01:08:58   the pick here is something has to ship in November.

01:09:01   That's all.

01:09:02   - I just think that if they were doing December,

01:09:04   they could have also just done this in December.

01:09:07   Usual rules do not apply here.

01:09:10   They could just run this event whenever they wanted to.

01:09:14   - And I think you're right.

01:09:14   - And I think they chose it now for a reason.

01:09:16   - I think it's more likely than not

01:09:17   that this Apple Silicon Mac that we're assuming

01:09:20   is gonna ship no later than November 20th.

01:09:23   - 'Cause I could have imagined them just as easily

01:09:27   if this was coming out in December,

01:09:29   announcing the event next Tuesday,

01:09:32   running the event the 17th, right?

01:09:35   I think they do it now so they can have them out

01:09:37   before Thanksgiving.

01:09:38   That's the assumption I've been working on this whole time.

01:09:43   So it just makes sense to me

01:09:44   that they would ship something in November.

01:09:46   - Yeah, makes sense.

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01:11:47   Okay, so we now go to our three rounds of non Mac picks.

01:11:55   - Yeah, this is gonna be hard,

01:11:57   but it's also gonna be wacky, so that's okay.

01:12:00   - Yeah, because we both feel pretty unsure

01:12:04   of anything other than Macs at this event now.

01:12:07   - Yeah, I think that's one of the things is,

01:12:08   would there be a different iPad?

01:12:10   I think probably not,

01:12:11   because we already had iPad at an event,

01:12:14   but it's not impossible.

01:12:17   There are no rumors about it, but you never know.

01:12:18   There have been rumors about some other products

01:12:20   that could get rolled into this event or not.

01:12:24   I'm gonna start with some stagecraft though,

01:12:26   because I like the stagecraft

01:12:28   and I am going to say Craig Federighi presents.

01:12:32   That there will be something related to Mac OS and Big Sur

01:12:36   and how it works that we'll hear Craig's voice.

01:12:41   - Yeah, I had this on there.

01:12:43   I've even already spoke about the fact

01:12:44   where I think he's going to be, right?

01:12:46   - Yep.

01:12:47   - Craig is going to be a part of this.

01:12:49   I am very confident of that.

01:12:52   We have not seen him at any of the other events recently,

01:12:55   other than just like in passing,

01:12:57   but I think this is going to be like big software time.

01:13:01   There's gonna be a lot of stuff

01:13:02   that are gonna be showing off.

01:13:03   So I expect Craig to be here.

01:13:06   I'm gonna pick a similar pick.

01:13:07   I believe that we will see the return of Johnny Srouji

01:13:11   to speak or present at this event.

01:13:12   - That was my other choice, right?

01:13:14   Was Johnny Srouji.

01:13:16   They could have someone else representing the chip team,

01:13:18   but I feel like on a launch like this,

01:13:19   how could you not have the guy

01:13:20   who's in charge of Apple's whole chip team

01:13:23   speak about this move?

01:13:24   - I think the reason that they've had other people

01:13:27   talking about the A14 is so they will have Johnny back

01:13:31   to do the Apple Silicon unveiling.

01:13:34   So they're actually spreading it around,

01:13:35   giving other people the opportunity

01:13:37   to show off what they've been working on.

01:13:40   But I think for something as monumental as this,

01:13:43   Srouji should have his time.

01:13:45   He should have kind of what he deserves.

01:13:47   Like I run this thing forever and now here we are.

01:13:50   I want to be the one to show off to the world.

01:13:53   And I understand that.

01:13:54   I think now we're getting into crazy town.

01:13:58   So do you wanna just like, what you got?

01:14:02   - Yeah.

01:14:03   I'm going to say, oh boy, it is so hard now.

01:14:11   I'm gonna throw the over the ear headphones in.

01:14:16   - Ooh, okay.

01:14:18   - Yeah, I'm gonna throw them in.

01:14:21   Why not?

01:14:22   They might happen. - It's the product

01:14:23   I want the most.

01:14:24   - And it would be a product that could sell a lot

01:14:26   at the holidays, right?

01:14:27   Which might be a way to get it.

01:14:29   I also am not entirely convinced

01:14:31   that this is not 100% a Mac event,

01:14:33   but these events are new and they've done split events

01:14:35   before where they've, you know, HomePod.

01:14:38   And so maybe again, maybe again.

01:14:42   So I'll throw them in there.

01:14:44   I have no great confidence about this,

01:14:45   but we're not allowed to pick more Mac picks.

01:14:47   So there we are.

01:14:49   - I did just have the thought that this event will run

01:14:52   before the iPhones come out.

01:14:54   - The new iPhones, that's true.

01:14:57   - Yeah. - That's true.

01:14:58   - I don't think anything of that,

01:15:00   but it is just something that I've realized.

01:15:02   I think that's kind of like just a funny thought really

01:15:04   to me. - So much going on.

01:15:06   - I'm gonna pick the Apple Tag product to be unveiled.

01:15:10   - Yeah, there we go.

01:15:12   - I mean, we'll pick this forever until they do it.

01:15:15   - I like that you and I both have like the mystery product.

01:15:18   These are like cryptids there, you know, Bigfoot sighting

01:15:21   of, oh, it's the Apple Tag, there it goes.

01:15:23   Oh, over ear headphones, are they?

01:15:25   Will we be right?

01:15:26   We'll be wrong.

01:15:27   Flip a coin and the coin will end on its side

01:15:29   and we're both wrong.

01:15:31   - What I want the most is the over ear headphones,

01:15:33   but I keep seeing reports of delays on that product,

01:15:36   which makes me nervous that it's gonna be now,

01:15:38   but it is what I want.

01:15:40   And I do believe like if this is a product

01:15:43   they have available, they will put it on sale

01:15:45   because it will do well for them, I think,

01:15:50   if they could do it for the holiday season.

01:15:52   - So I feel like we should have put more people

01:15:57   in this category of predicting people.

01:16:00   - I have two possible picks and I don't believe either of them.

01:16:03   (laughing)

01:16:05   So, yeah.

01:16:07   - Actually there's a whole set of stuff

01:16:09   that I've just thought of that we haven't included,

01:16:11   which is anything services or anything Apple TV related.

01:16:14   We didn't even consider that when we were pointing together

01:16:16   our hasty draft selection.

01:16:19   - I just don't think it's gonna happen.

01:16:22   - Honestly, that could be like a February event

01:16:24   at this point.

01:16:25   - Yeah, yeah.

01:16:27   If you wanna pick a services related thing,

01:16:32   let's say I'm gonna, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm.

01:16:37   Oh no, I'm gonna put Jaws.

01:16:44   I think we've heard from Jaws

01:16:45   and we're not gonna hear Jaws again,

01:16:46   but I'm gonna put Jaws Presents down

01:16:48   that Jaws will say a word.

01:16:50   Presents, by presents I literally mean

01:16:52   we will hear Jaws' voice,

01:16:54   Greg Jaws React's voice at some point.

01:16:56   He is the head of product marketing.

01:16:58   I actually don't think we'll hear from him.

01:17:00   Although I do know he loves the Mac,

01:17:03   I think they'll use other product marketing people

01:17:05   to talk about this, but I'll throw Jaws in there.

01:17:07   I'll take a flyer on that for my keynote bingo.

01:17:09   - Here's a question for you.

01:17:12   - Yeah.

01:17:13   - 'Cause I'm seeing Carl is mentioning Lisa Jackson

01:17:16   in the Discord.

01:17:18   (laughing)

01:17:19   Do you think these,

01:17:20   do you think they'll include power adapters with the Macs?

01:17:23   - Yeah, I do.

01:17:25   - Yeah, I do too.

01:17:26   - 'Cause you need more power for those.

01:17:29   But if you wanna pick a Lisa Jackson appearance

01:17:32   to break some news to us gently, you can do that.

01:17:35   That would be fine.

01:17:36   - I'm going with new AirPods model.

01:17:38   - Okay.

01:17:40   That doesn't, that's AirPods, not the over the ear.

01:17:43   - Yeah, it's everything but over the ear,

01:17:44   so we don't double up on our picks here.

01:17:46   But this is like a new AirPods,

01:17:49   a new model of what we,

01:17:50   kind of the stuff that we've seen in the past.

01:17:52   Basically anything except the over ears.

01:17:54   I just can, you know, AirPods Pro 2,

01:17:58   new AirPods 3.

01:18:01   Also there is, there's been some rumors

01:18:03   and some interesting reports of like,

01:18:06   an AirPods case that can be charged by MagSafe from a phone.

01:18:11   Did you see this?

01:18:12   - I did see that.

01:18:14   - There was an FCC report that Apple had filed

01:18:16   saying that a future Apple accessory

01:18:19   could be powered by MagSafe.

01:18:21   And wouldn't that be interesting

01:18:24   if it was like reverse charging for AirPods.

01:18:27   So I could imagine that as a product.

01:18:31   And so I could also imagine them doing

01:18:34   what they did with the, when the AirPods went chi

01:18:38   and they had a new model

01:18:40   and they also introduced a new wireless charging case.

01:18:45   - Fascinating.

01:18:45   - So that is the draft.

01:18:47   Do you have anything else?

01:18:48   Probably not, but did you have anything you didn't pick?

01:18:51   - Yeah, you know, so one that I put in

01:18:54   that made us both laugh,

01:18:55   'cause again, we were just assembling this

01:18:56   on the fly this morning,

01:18:57   like Intel not mentioned.

01:18:58   Like what if they just don't mention Intel?

01:19:01   Just don't.

01:19:02   Like say we're moving on, we're never looking back.

01:19:04   I don't think this will happen probably because of Rosetta,

01:19:07   which we actually had on the list of demo of Rosetta 2,

01:19:10   which I think is also a pretty good bet

01:19:13   that they'll probably mention

01:19:14   that this is compiled for Intel and look, it runs great.

01:19:16   But you know, I think it's worth saying,

01:19:18   would they even mention Intel?

01:19:20   Maybe like that would be the ultimate freeze out, right?

01:19:24   Like we've moved on.

01:19:26   We don't even say its name anymore.

01:19:28   - It's like the John Draper thing, right?

01:19:31   The John Draper meme, like,

01:19:33   I think about you all the time,

01:19:34   I don't even think about you at all.

01:19:36   I was thinking that we might see, and I believe we will,

01:19:39   but I just didn't pick it,

01:19:40   demos of apps running in Rosetta 2.

01:19:43   - Yeah, that's when they'll talk about Intel probably.

01:19:47   I think there'll be a game demo too, right?

01:19:49   An inevitable, the inevitable interminable game demo

01:19:52   that shows you how impressive performance is on the Mac.

01:19:55   - Look how great these Apple Arcade games

01:19:57   that are made for iOS run on the new Macs.

01:20:00   - So the thing that I want desperately

01:20:02   and that I didn't pick is touchscreen

01:20:04   because I think once you're running iOS apps,

01:20:08   it really makes you ask the question,

01:20:09   why not have a multi-touch screen for the iOS apps?

01:20:14   And I think that the Mac may yet get a touchscreen,

01:20:19   but this feels early, right?

01:20:21   This feels like maybe this is the continuity

01:20:25   rather than introducing new modes of working phase

01:20:28   of the Apple Silicon transition.

01:20:30   And that we'll have a chance to open up the can of worms

01:20:34   on that later.

01:20:36   - Yeah, I feel like the person who might be the most upset

01:20:41   if this is the case is actually John Gruber now

01:20:45   because I keep hearing him mention like,

01:20:47   this is gonna be big, this is gonna be really big.

01:20:50   And I don't know how big it's gonna be at first, right?

01:20:55   - I think it is gonna be big in a long sweep

01:20:57   of history of the Mac.

01:20:59   But I think the thing that keeps coming back to me

01:21:03   is this idea, is Apple going to make this transition,

01:21:08   this big sweeping move where suddenly

01:21:10   everything is different?

01:21:12   Or is the two year period incremental?

01:21:17   The two year period is not just,

01:21:20   we're gonna release systems over two years

01:21:22   that replace Intel, but the two year period is also,

01:21:24   we're gonna roll out new things,

01:21:26   new tech that transforms the Mac,

01:21:29   but we're gonna do it over that period.

01:21:31   And so even if touchscreen Macs are coming,

01:21:34   maybe you don't start with that.

01:21:38   Now that adds complexity later where you're like,

01:21:40   oh, touchscreens are on Apple Silicon Macs,

01:21:42   except for the ones that it's not at the beginning.

01:21:46   But I do think, and maybe they won't come at all.

01:21:49   And that'll be Apple just sort of frustrating everybody.

01:21:52   But I do think that they are probably coming

01:21:54   sometime somewhere.

01:21:55   And the question is, is it gonna be on every Mac or not?

01:21:58   And is it gonna be right away or are we gonna have to wait?

01:22:00   But if that MacBook has a touchscreen,

01:22:02   then that will be awesome.

01:22:03   And I hope it does because again, it's running iOS apps.

01:22:08   It'd be awfully nice if you could reach up

01:22:10   and scroll those apps, that would be cool.

01:22:13   - I think big, big, big, big, big changes are coming.

01:22:16   But I can imagine a sliding scale

01:22:21   over the next couple of years.

01:22:23   - And we already have cursor interaction on iOS, right?

01:22:25   With the iPad and therefore having that be essentially

01:22:30   what's happening on the Mac in the meantime, makes sense.

01:22:33   You could do that, it would be fine.

01:22:34   - So that's the draft.

01:22:38   - That's it.

01:22:39   - As always, we'll have a scorecard in the show notes.

01:22:42   Scorecard might not be available straight away,

01:22:44   again, because we have to get wonderful Zach Knox

01:22:49   to put that together for us.

01:22:50   And Zach had less, I think less notice than we did,

01:22:55   even about the event today,

01:22:57   but it will be in there before the next episode.

01:23:02   So you can maybe go pick it up before the event.

01:23:05   Obviously we will be recording on Tuesday the 10th

01:23:10   and we'll be streaming live on Tuesday the 10th

01:23:13   after the event.

01:23:14   - Time to be determined, but after the event,

01:23:16   it might be right after the event,

01:23:17   it might be a few hours after the event.

01:23:18   - Well, likely be with a bit of a gap in between

01:23:22   like it was last time at least.

01:23:24   - We'll see, it's a very busy time.

01:23:26   And there are a lot of other things going on post event

01:23:29   that sometimes force us to be not like hot right after,

01:23:34   but after a few hours.

01:23:35   - It will be that day, right?

01:23:36   It will be within a few hours.

01:23:37   - But it will be, yes, it will be post event.

01:23:39   - Keep an eye out on Twitter,

01:23:41   on the upgrade to account on our Twitter accounts as well.

01:23:44   We'll publish in that directory

01:23:46   in the relay for members discord.

01:23:47   We'll post it there as well when we're about to go live.

01:23:49   But if you don't wanna listen live or can't listen live,

01:23:52   that episode will be out on Tuesday,

01:23:54   mere hours after the event has ended.

01:23:56   Basically we will do the thing.

01:23:58   I'll put it together and post it.

01:23:59   So you will get our fresh takes as soon as possible.

01:24:04   So yeah, wow, we did it, Jason Snow.

01:24:07   - We did it, emergency draft.

01:24:09   - Can't believe it.

01:24:10   - We did it.

01:24:11   Okay, so if you wanna find show notes

01:24:14   for this week's episode,

01:24:15   you can go to relay.fm/upgrades/324.

01:24:18   Of course, Jason will be following along

01:24:21   and reporting on everything

01:24:22   over the next couple of weeks that unfolds.

01:24:24   You can go to sixcolors.com

01:24:26   and you can follow Jason online.

01:24:27   He is @jasonl, J-S-N-E-L-L.

01:24:30   If you wanna follow that, I am @imike, I-M-Y-K-E.

01:24:34   Thank you so much to Squarespace, KiwiCo, and SaneBox

01:24:37   for their support of this show.

01:24:39   And if you are a member and support this show as well,

01:24:41   thank you so much.

01:24:42   If you would like to get ad-free,

01:24:44   longer episodes of Upgrade every single week,

01:24:46   go to getupgradeplus.com and you can sign up there.

01:24:51   Until next time, say goodbye, Jason Snow.

01:24:54   - Goodbye, Myke Hurley.

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