209: The 2018 iPhone Event Draft


00:00:00   [Intro music]

00:00:10   From Relay FM, this is Upgrade 209.

00:00:13   The summer of fun is over because it is Apple Event time, which can mean only one thing.

00:00:18   Today, we're going to be participating in the 2018 iPhone Event Draft.

00:00:24   This show is brought to you by Away, Pingdom and Squarespace.

00:00:28   I am competitor number one, I am Myke Hurley, and I am joined by my friend and my adversary

00:00:34   and my opponent, Mr. Jason Snell.

00:00:36   Hi Jason Snell.

00:00:37   Summer of fun...

00:00:38   No.

00:00:39   Wait a second.

00:00:40   Done.

00:00:41   Summer of fun is out.

00:00:42   Serious business.

00:00:44   There is nothing more serious than drafting, Myke.

00:00:46   We are in high season now.

00:00:48   So last week, Apple announced that there is going to be an event on the 12th, Wednesday

00:00:54   the 12th of September.

00:00:56   It will be at least the new iPhone, and we're going to get to all of this soon, including

00:01:02   of course, the draft.

00:01:04   Before we do, we must open this show as we open every other with a #SnellTalk question,

00:01:09   where someone will ask Jason a question about anything.

00:01:12   This time, I asked the question.

00:01:14   Jason, are you looking forward to returning to the Steve Jobs Theater?

00:01:18   I am.

00:01:19   I am looking forward to it.

00:01:20   This is the second time, right?

00:01:21   This is the second time.

00:01:22   Actually, I was there the day after the Chicago event.

00:01:26   I got a briefing that was in the Steve Jobs Theater building.

00:01:30   It was that they have briefing rooms that are on the level that is above the theater.

00:01:37   So you go down some steps to go...

00:01:41   There's like a top level that is right at the ground level of the theater.

00:01:47   And then there's a level below that where there's a big open space where they put the

00:01:50   demo stuff, and there's also briefing rooms back there.

00:01:53   And then that's where you enter and go down to enter the theater proper.

00:01:59   And so I have been there a couple of times, and I've parked...

00:02:04   It's funny because all those years parking at Infinite Loop to get product briefings

00:02:09   and stuff, that now I've been a bunch of times, like a handful of times.

00:02:14   In fact, so many that when everybody was making their pilgrimages at WWDC to Apple Park instead

00:02:20   of the Loop, I was like, "Oh yeah, people haven't been there yet, have they?"

00:02:23   Because I'd been there for a bunch of different product briefings and stuff at various...

00:02:29   Not in the park ring itself, but in the ancillary buildings that they have over by the Steve

00:02:35   Jobs Theater.

00:02:36   Well, we can't all be as cool as you, Jason, I'm afraid.

00:02:38   Well, no, it was just funny that I'd just kind of forgotten that it had not been a whole

00:02:42   year.

00:02:43   This is old news to me now.

00:02:44   Yes, that's right.

00:02:45   Oh, Apple Park, whatever.

00:02:46   That's very 2017.

00:02:47   I don't know what you guys are thinking.

00:02:48   I'm glad the campus is free.

00:02:50   Come on.

00:02:51   Yeah, yeah, that's right.

00:02:53   Let's...

00:02:54   Come on, more stuff.

00:02:55   No, so I know where the...

00:02:56   The difference is from purely logistical standpoint, it's like I know where the parking is, I know

00:03:01   where they're gonna send us.

00:03:02   Last year we had no idea.

00:03:03   It was like, "Go to this place, here are the directions, how do we get there?

00:03:07   It's still partially under construction."

00:03:08   I'm looking forward to seeing how the campus has changed in the intervening year because

00:03:13   I took a bunch of pictures of...

00:03:15   But it was like the Steve Jobs Theater was surrounded by dirt, basically.

00:03:19   They were planting plants and stuff, but it was not done.

00:03:23   And I imagine it will be a very different scene this time.

00:03:28   And yeah, so I'm looking forward to it.

00:03:30   And of course, I'm looking forward to the event.

00:03:31   It's always...

00:03:33   It's a lot of work, but I'm also excited to hear what's new.

00:03:37   And it's a very exciting time and I'll probably have trouble sleeping the night before and

00:03:41   all of that, yeah.

00:03:43   So before we get into the draft rules and our first picks, we have a little bit more

00:03:48   information about these products than we had expected via the inquisitive and interested

00:03:56   minds over at 9to5Mac.

00:03:59   So we have some reports from Guillermo Rambo and Zach Hall about two products.

00:04:05   We saw a selection of images of what 9to5Mac is calling the iPhone X, letter S. I'm assuming

00:04:16   10S is my assumption to make here.

00:04:21   You can clearly see from the images, there is two sizes of phones.

00:04:25   Things that we don't know, we don't know if that's an iPhone X phone and a bigger phone

00:04:30   or if it's an iPhone X phone and a smaller phone.

00:04:32   We don't know.

00:04:34   But we know that there are two phones in two sizes.

00:04:36   They clearly look gold.

00:04:39   And there is an Apple Watch in a similar color gold.

00:04:41   We don't know what material that is.

00:04:45   We can see that the LTE dot has changed to a little red ring.

00:04:51   We can see some more information on the watch face, more complications, maybe arranged in

00:04:57   a different way.

00:04:58   Potentially the watch is thinner.

00:05:00   We're not 100% sure about a lot of these details, but we can see that there is some stuff going

00:05:06   on here.

00:05:07   And these are real images that as far as we can tell...

00:05:10   These appear to be as real as real can be.

00:05:13   It sounds like somebody who is really apparently bad at their job thinks that it's okay to

00:05:19   post marketing images from an event that's top secret and two weeks away on a publicly

00:05:25   accessible web server.

00:05:27   Enough that Guillaume Rameau at 9to5Mac was able to figure it out and find the files.

00:05:36   And he always does that.

00:05:38   He's also looking for video streams.

00:05:41   He's just poking around there.

00:05:43   That's why you should not be putting anything up.

00:05:45   But these very clearly are marketing images.

00:05:47   - None of this stuff should exist on the internet in any fashion.

00:05:50   - No, no.

00:05:51   I was thinking air gaps, just air gaps.

00:05:53   You should have a network that's not even on any network, just its own little network

00:05:58   that you do all the marketing information and everything like that.

00:06:01   Because this is kind of ridiculous that it happened like this.

00:06:03   Because these are totally real images.

00:06:06   There's no doubt about it.

00:06:07   - So this is another unprecedented leak, which keeps happening.

00:06:12   Last year there was a version of the operating system that came out and it had basically

00:06:17   everything on it.

00:06:18   It had those multiple days of leaking of the iPhone X, of Animoji, everything.

00:06:23   So because we believe in the fairest of spot around here in the upgrade draft, we are going

00:06:30   to be excluding the following four items from being available to be picked in the draft.

00:06:37   The XS name, a gold option for the new iPhone, the existence of an Apple Watch at this event,

00:06:44   and an edge to edge screen on the Apple Watch because we have deemed, the committee has

00:06:49   deemed that these four things are now basically as close to public knowledge as they can be.

00:06:55   So it's like in the same way that we do not consider something eligible to pick for the

00:07:01   draft if it is announced in any way before the draft.

00:07:04   So those four things have been removed.

00:07:08   And one of the reasons we do this is so it makes it a little bit more difficult for us

00:07:11   because otherwise the first four items picked this year would have been those exact four

00:07:15   things.

00:07:16   So there's got to be some competition around here.

00:07:21   Yeah, I mean you gotta, it would be really boring because the other way to go is we would

00:07:25   literally just pick those four things.

00:07:26   And it's like, "Yay!

00:07:27   We picked the things that we know are real."

00:07:29   So there's no point in doing that.

00:07:31   And there are a couple other kind of related things where we're basically going to have

00:07:34   a footnote that says, "Except for what we saw in those leaked images, those found images

00:07:41   leaked."

00:07:43   Is that the right word?

00:07:45   Both I think it's a bit of a little column A, a little column B, right?

00:07:48   They got out and then someone found them.

00:07:50   So the ones that we know for sure, because like all of the like Mark Gurman reports tend

00:07:54   to be a little bit hazy.

00:07:55   Like the existence of iPhones I think, you know, we're going to grant, nobody's going

00:07:59   to say, "Oh, hey, guess what?

00:08:01   I'm picking that there's going to be a larger OLED model."

00:08:04   I think it's fair to say anything that is in text, we consider fair game.

00:08:08   Images, not fair game anymore.

00:08:10   It's hard to argue with that.

00:08:12   So there's enough.

00:08:14   The idea here is that we're choosing things where there's at least a little bit of uncertainty

00:08:17   about it.

00:08:19   So here are the rules of the draft.

00:08:21   We have 10 rounds of the draft.

00:08:22   So we get 10 picks each, 20 overall picks.

00:08:26   The winner of the previous draft picks first.

00:08:28   That is me.

00:08:29   I won WWDC.

00:08:30   For an item to be considered scorable in the draft for it to count, it must either be clearly

00:08:37   announced on stage or on a slide during the presentation.

00:08:41   In case of a scoring stalemate between the two of us, Stephen Hackett will act as adjudicator.

00:08:48   As always, we prefer to score and agree ourselves, but where we can't, we turn to outside help.

00:08:53   There are no half points awarded.

00:08:55   This is a binary thing, one or zero.

00:08:58   We either get one point or zero points.

00:09:00   There are no points awarded for preannounced or ridiculously obvious items.

00:09:04   See prior.

00:09:06   And the points awarded on next week's episode are final.

00:09:13   The results for 2018 so far.

00:09:15   Jason won the March event.

00:09:17   I won WWDC.

00:09:19   For all we know, September will be the winner.

00:09:23   But we don't know because there is a lot of rumor about an October event.

00:09:27   And I think that will play into some of the picks.

00:09:30   I want to give a statistic for the September event draft.

00:09:34   This is the third time that we have participated in a September event draft.

00:09:39   This is the third annual.

00:09:40   Jason is undefeated so far in the September event.

00:09:46   So everything's to play for here.

00:09:49   Potentially the winner, right?

00:09:50   Or at least I think it's safe to assume whoever takes this point home won't lose.

00:09:55   I think it's probably a better way to put it, right?

00:09:58   I think that's probably true.

00:10:00   And also, you know, it would be you've got a lot on the line because you aren't defeated.

00:10:04   And I have a lot on the line because I finally want to defeat you in the September draft.

00:10:07   So yeah, this is a big one this year.

00:10:10   And we should get to it.

00:10:11   But before we do, let's take our first break and then we'll get into our first five picks.

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00:13:03   All right, so we start off with pick number one and I get to go first.

00:13:08   Now of course, I had picked naming initially and I was leaning towards 10S as my first

00:13:17   pick which even before we started seeing this stuff, you were very much believing that the

00:13:23   phone would not be called the 10S.

00:13:24   If I, you know, you were, you.

00:13:25   - I was on the iPhone 10 just as the new iPhone 10 train and that was, I mean, maybe a little

00:13:29   more wish casting than prediction.

00:13:32   But yeah, I was definitely feeling like, because I feel like 10S doesn't look good.

00:13:38   I mean, maybe they'll put a space or a box around it, but 10S and then it is the mixture

00:13:44   of a Roman numeral and a letter.

00:13:47   So it looks like XS, like the X alone, you can say, well, it's the Roman numeral 10,

00:13:52   but when it's XS, like S is not a Roman numeral.

00:13:58   So how do you pronounce it?

00:13:59   And you're mixing them and that seems bad.

00:14:02   So I still am a little incredulous about it, but the nine to five Mac, they're like, that

00:14:07   is the name.

00:14:08   So I'm gonna take them at their word.

00:14:10   I think they found an image with the name in it and they're like, that's the name.

00:14:15   So I think we have to leave it there.

00:14:16   - When I look at it though, I can't help but think iPhone extra small, which is kind of

00:14:20   hilarious to me when there's the big one.

00:14:22   So it's the iPhone extra small plus.

00:14:24   Seems potentially very funny to me.

00:14:26   - Also the name choices there are 10S or XS.

00:14:29   - Or XS, both really, really, really good.

00:14:33   But we're gonna park naming for a moment because my first pick is the large screen OLED phone

00:14:40   will be the 10 plus most likely, 10S plus maybe.

00:14:45   I believe that that phone will start, it's starting price will be more than $1,099.

00:14:52   That is my first pick.

00:14:53   - Oh, interesting.

00:14:54   So this was a late in the game for just a little insider choice.

00:14:59   I added some pricing items 'cause we don't know the pricing.

00:15:02   It's one of the delightful things we don't know.

00:15:04   And so you're gonna come right out and say, it's gonna be more than $1,099?

00:15:11   - It will be more than $1,099.

00:15:12   - Wow, okay.

00:15:14   - Now here's my reasoning for this.

00:15:17   The current iPhone costs $999 to start at 64 gigabytes, right?

00:15:23   - Yes.

00:15:24   - I don't think they're gonna get rid of that price point.

00:15:27   Maybe I'm tipping my hand for a potential pick later on.

00:15:30   I don't think that that price point will go away.

00:15:32   I think it will stick.

00:15:33   I think Apple have clearly shown that they can make people buy that phone, especially

00:15:40   when they're introducing a phone which should be cheaper as well, right?

00:15:43   So in theory, they can keep that 999 the same.

00:15:47   And I think that the jump to the plus is not gonna be any less than $100 from 999.

00:15:55   And I think that it may even start with a higher storage option, pushing it potentially

00:16:00   higher.

00:16:01   Like, they will really try and position the plus phone as a more, even more premium product.

00:16:08   And I think that probably an $1,100 or $1,200 price tag will be where that phone begins.

00:16:15   Purely because I think a lot of the people that want that phone will pay pretty much

00:16:20   any amount that Apple will charge, within reason.

00:16:23   So if what they're trying to do is increase the ASP, which I think is exactly what they're

00:16:29   trying to do, especially from the 10 onwards, I don't imagine the 10 get in any cheaper.

00:16:35   So putting the larger screen OLED phone at a more expensive price point just seems like

00:16:40   the logical next move for me.

00:16:42   But so you think they're gonna go up $200 from the iPhone X price of 999?

00:16:47   Potentially, yes.

00:16:49   Interesting.

00:16:50   Interesting.

00:16:51   I mean, that's an expensive phone to get your iPhone XS Plus or whatever Pro XL for $1,199

00:17:02   to start.

00:17:03   But you're right, Apple has been bold with raising prices.

00:17:06   The pick is $1,099.

00:17:07   But I personally think it will probably be about, I think it will be $1,200.

00:17:12   So is the pick $1,099 or more than $1,099?

00:17:16   More than $1,099.

00:17:17   But that, you know.

00:17:18   So if that large phone is $1,099, you don't get this choice.

00:17:22   Okay.

00:17:23   Say like $1,099 or higher then.

00:17:24   Let's say $1,099 or higher.

00:17:26   Okay.

00:17:27   All right.

00:17:28   That's why I think I had more than $1,000 in our document.

00:17:32   Yeah.

00:17:33   Yeah.

00:17:34   Which is, but like, you know, it's not gonna be $1,050.

00:17:36   Or if it is, I quit.

00:17:39   All right.

00:17:40   All right.

00:17:41   Well, $1,099, that I think is a better pick.

00:17:42   I think it will probably be $1,099 to start.

00:17:46   Thank you for letting me clarify that.

00:17:47   I appreciate that.

00:17:49   See, I'm trying to be, this is the spirit of our draft.

00:17:54   It's sportsmanship.

00:17:55   It's sportsmanship here that you and I have where we are, just as we try to decide who

00:18:00   gets what score without even bringing in our referee, Stephen Hackett, right?

00:18:03   Like the goal is not that he decides.

00:18:05   The goal is that we decide and if we disagree, it's sportsmanship.

00:18:09   Anyway, I am going, I am playing at least a little bit to win here.

00:18:14   And so I'm gonna pick something that is hinted at by the images in the 9to5Mac posted.

00:18:23   And when I asked you if we should disqualify this, you said, "No, I think it's debatable

00:18:27   and therefore I'm just gonna go ahead and pick it.

00:18:29   Hey, Apple Watch bands will still work with the new Apple Watch."

00:18:33   That's my choice.

00:18:34   The existing, all of your, great news, Myke, all of your Apple Watch bands that you bought,

00:18:40   I predict will still work with the Series 4 Apple Watch.

00:18:44   Congratulations.

00:18:45   - Now this is, okay, so here's the thing on this one, right?

00:18:48   Now, yeah, I believe that's gonna happen, but will they say it?

00:18:52   That's what you've got to go against.

00:18:54   There has to be, it has to be clearly outlined on the stage, Jason, that this is gonna look,

00:18:59   right?

00:19:00   So there needs to be something which we can point to and say, "Oh yeah, there you go."

00:19:04   - But if they say, and there are many more watch bands, it only has to be implied, I

00:19:09   would say.

00:19:10   - Yeah, I'm gonna put it out there.

00:19:11   - But I think it has to be more than just, "Oh, if you look at that product image from

00:19:15   the side, it clearly looks like, I don't think, I think it needs to be more than that.

00:19:18   I think there needs to be some clear implication made."

00:19:22   - Acknowledgement that it's the same?

00:19:23   - Mm-hmm.

00:19:24   - Sure, okay.

00:19:25   - All right, so I'm gonna go for my second pick.

00:19:28   The lower end notch phone, so the LCD notch phone, will be called the iPhone 9.

00:19:34   - Okay, I've been calling it that all along and it's only been in the last week where

00:19:39   all of my other assumptions about what they were going to do have been questioned, that

00:19:46   I have begun questioning whether that's the case or not.

00:19:48   It's certainly, it's right there, right?

00:19:50   - It's logical.

00:19:51   - The nine number, it's right there.

00:19:52   - It's available to them and it's logical.

00:19:55   And so far, everything we think we know about the naming shows that Apple isn't actually

00:20:00   looking to change anything, right?

00:20:02   They're keeping S, for example.

00:20:04   And I think if they're gonna keep S, I can't imagine them getting off the train for this

00:20:10   other phone unless they call it the 10 Air or who knows, something weird like that.

00:20:15   But they went from eight to 10.

00:20:18   I think nine is still clearly available to them.

00:20:22   And I think that it tells the story that I've been mentioning, I think we spoke about this

00:20:27   last week, right?

00:20:28   That the iPhone 10 was announced as it being a leap into the future.

00:20:31   It was the future's phone.

00:20:33   And the nine was just kind of left there.

00:20:35   And from everything we think we know about this phone, it bridges the gap between the

00:20:39   eight and the 10 because it has some of the features of the eight, some of the features

00:20:43   of the 10, but it's a new device.

00:20:45   So I think calling it the iPhone 9 makes sense.

00:20:48   It is an unoccupied space in their naming.

00:20:51   Nothing's ever been called this before, which may actually help sell that product, which

00:20:56   is in a really weird spot.

00:20:58   So if anything, to somebody who maybe doesn't know a lot, they know the 10.

00:21:02   They've heard of the 10, the 10s.

00:21:04   Well, the nine, that's not been around before.

00:21:06   Who knows?

00:21:07   Because I don't even think that most consumers even think of it as the iPhone 10.

00:21:11   They think of it as the iPhone X.

00:21:12   So they have the number available to them as nine, and I think that they'll go for it.

00:21:17   Yeah, I think it's logical.

00:21:20   I think it's going to be a little bit weird either way if there's this big phone that

00:21:23   is residing in one of those spaces, but that seems to be what they're doing.

00:21:27   So it's just a matter of what the details are.

00:21:29   And the name is laying right there.

00:21:31   So it would be silly for them not to use it, I think.

00:21:34   So I think that's a good choice.

00:21:35   What is your second pick?

00:21:38   You know, sometimes there are regrets.

00:21:44   Sometimes Apple has to take promises back, and sometimes it has to be acknowledged on

00:21:50   stage.

00:21:51   And that's why I am going to say that what Apple's going to do while they're detailing

00:21:57   all the wonderful features in iOS 12 that are available on these iPhones and other devices

00:22:03   they may announce at the event, they will mention among the features, Group FaceTime

00:22:10   and mention that it's coming later this year.

00:22:13   So Group FaceTime mentioned and promised for later is my choice.

00:22:19   That they're not going to make it persona non grata.

00:22:23   They're going to mention it as a great iOS 12 feature, but not yet.

00:22:31   Interesting.

00:22:32   I had this, you know, I take our list, we create a very long list of lots and lots of

00:22:39   rumors that we can pick from, so there's some consistency.

00:22:42   And I take that list and I kind of rearrange a subset of them so when we're sitting here

00:22:47   now I can pick from stuff that I've already looked at.

00:22:49   That was at the very very bottom of my list of 25 items that I'd ranked.

00:22:55   I think that it is, obviously it's happening, right?

00:22:58   We know it's happening, that it's going to be delayed.

00:23:02   I don't know if they'll say it.

00:23:04   I think they could probably get away with it.

00:23:06   I think the look of it is so striking that they will be hard pressed, and it's actually

00:23:13   a major feature of iOS 12, I think they'll be hard pressed not to mention it.

00:23:17   I admit, again, all of these are a little bit risky.

00:23:19   I think it's hard for them not to show it in a slide or mention it and say, you know,

00:23:25   and later this year this feature will also be there because I think they're maybe too

00:23:29   proud of it and too excited about it.

00:23:31   But again, we've seen these features slip and slip and slip, so it's possible that it'll

00:23:36   be persona non grata, but I think they can't not mention it.

00:23:39   All right, you have inspired me.

00:23:42   Oh boy.

00:23:43   Because you were talking about promises.

00:23:46   So I want to cast our mind back to September of last year.

00:23:51   Yes.

00:23:52   When we were all shown a wondrous device called AirPower.

00:23:58   Too late now for AirPower to come out before the event, I think.

00:24:02   I think it would, you know, Apple had the option to put it out and they could still

00:24:05   do it, right?

00:24:06   It's entirely possible AirPower will be released tomorrow, but probably not.

00:24:10   It is entirely possible, but I don't think it's going to happen.

00:24:16   We actually were talking about this and connected a couple of weeks ago.

00:24:19   My pick that we gave some predictions for AirPower, and this is not my pick now, but

00:24:24   my pick on the show was I think they will announce it, but it won't be available yet.

00:24:28   It will be available later.

00:24:31   But I believe that they will announce this release date during the event.

00:24:36   And I think it's going to be like, and AirPower will be available in October or AirPower will

00:24:40   be available later this year or something like that, you know, but they will announce

00:24:45   it.

00:24:46   Or even the same day as the new iPhones possibly.

00:24:48   Yeah, that is what people would want and expect.

00:24:51   I just personally don't believe that it will be available immediately because I feel like

00:24:57   if it could have been available immediately, they could have put it out probably a month

00:25:00   ago.

00:25:01   But I think that AirPower will have its release date announced.

00:25:07   This is a very, very peculiar product.

00:25:09   You know, I would love for somebody if they know, maybe someone like a Steven Hacker out

00:25:13   in the world might know this, has Apple ever done this before?

00:25:17   Announce the product that it will be available and then it takes a whole other year and they

00:25:22   announce it again.

00:25:24   This has got to be in a club of one or a very, very small club.

00:25:27   Yeah, that's the only reason why I think there's a non-zero chance that it will be announced

00:25:33   and shipped in the next two weeks.

00:25:35   Yeah, it is just so that they don't lap themselves.

00:25:40   It is very possible, but I'm going to stick with it.

00:25:42   It's like AirPlay 2, right?

00:25:43   AirPlay 2 is like, "We're going to get this out before WWDC because we don't want to lap

00:25:49   ourselves here."

00:25:50   I think it's a good choice.

00:25:51   I think that's a very good choice.

00:25:52   That was very high on my list.

00:25:55   I am going to go back to our friend, the iPhone 9 or whatever you want to call the lower end

00:26:01   notched iPhone with an LCD display.

00:26:06   LCD, sorry, because the D stands for display in that.

00:26:11   And say it's going to have color options.

00:26:13   This is a rumor that's out there and I'm going to choose it.

00:26:18   And by color options, I guess what I mean is not just space gray, silver and gold.

00:26:23   They're color options that are unique to that line, right?

00:26:25   I think is what we're looking for here.

00:26:27   Actually, I would say my choice is even if the only other color that's available is red

00:26:31   and we've seen some red on other products, if it's red at day one, then it counts.

00:26:38   I think what we're looking for here is that the lower end notch iPhone will have color

00:26:42   options that the other iPhones don't have, right?

00:26:46   No, no, that's not, I mean that the current iPhones don't have, I suppose is sort of what

00:26:51   I'm saying.

00:26:52   I'm saying it will have some color that the other phones that are announced don't offer.

00:26:56   Yeah, that's what I'm trying to say too.

00:26:58   So there will be, let's imagine that the OLED phone gets gold, right?

00:27:04   This notch iPhone could get gold, but it could also get blue.

00:27:07   And that means that there's a color option that it has that the other ones don't have.

00:27:10   Exactly.

00:27:11   So it's a more colorful device optionally, which again, it's been rumored, but I don't

00:27:17   feel like it's been strongly enough rumored for me to believe that it's a lock at all.

00:27:23   But part of it is I want to see that and I do think that there's maybe some appeal there.

00:27:27   They're using aluminum by all accounts on the ring around it and all of that.

00:27:33   So it's like they have more materials opportunities than they have on the iPhone X design.

00:27:38   And I think that makes it more likely that they'll do it.

00:27:40   All right, moving to pick four.

00:27:42   And I apologize, but I'm going for a point.

00:27:46   AR app demo.

00:27:48   Okay.

00:27:49   There will be a demo of some kind because it's a new iPhone release.

00:27:54   Some third party will be brought onto stage.

00:27:56   Where this has typically been games in the past.

00:27:58   We may see a game now, we may not, but I believe that one of the things that we will see is

00:28:03   an AR app because one of the new features of these phones will likely be, well, will

00:28:08   definitely be a new chip set.

00:28:11   And I believe one of the features that they will talk about with the new system on a chip

00:28:14   will be how much better it is AR than the previous phones.

00:28:18   And then they will bring out someone to show off an AR app because Apple like to bring

00:28:23   on third parties and have them demo something, right?

00:28:25   Like that is, we know this, this happens at every product in introduction of any significance.

00:28:31   And Apple's big focus right now, maybe even more than gaming is AR and what these devices

00:28:37   can do for AR because they clearly believe it's the future of technology for them.

00:28:43   So I believe that we're going to see some kind of AR app demo occur on stage during

00:28:48   the iPhone announcement.

00:28:49   I think this is an interesting choice.

00:28:51   I had it lower on my list because I feel like they spent time on AR in the, it's true in

00:28:58   the Chicago event and then especially at WWDC where they have a new version of ARKit.

00:29:03   So having them demo another AR app, I think is possible.

00:29:06   Yeah.

00:29:07   Well, if you think about it though, like I know that they showed up a bunch of stuff,

00:29:10   but like that, the way that they did it during WWDC is the way that they usually do an iPhone

00:29:15   event, right?

00:29:16   Like here's, we've had some people come in and work on an unannounced thing and here

00:29:19   it is.

00:29:20   But now since then, they've had some of their other partners and some other new app developers

00:29:25   spend three months with the new version of ARKit.

00:29:28   So that what there could be is stuff that's a lot more impressive.

00:29:32   You know, we didn't really see anything in the WWDC presentation which showed the like

00:29:38   object permanence that is in the new version of ARKit where like somebody could drop something

00:29:44   and somebody else could find it.

00:29:45   And I think that that is such an interesting feature.

00:29:49   Like the multiple device stuff, they could show a lot more of that.

00:29:53   I think it is, I understand why you would be hesitant, but I think that it is highly

00:30:00   likely.

00:30:01   I think it's less likely than one might think and I think something else might be a little

00:30:06   bit more likely.

00:30:07   Hmm.

00:30:08   Am I going to find out what that is right now?

00:30:10   Well, I'm tempted to make that choice right now, but I'm not.

00:30:17   Okay.

00:30:18   Okay.

00:30:19   So, in the meantime, I'm going to pick a different one, which is there will be new features in

00:30:25   iOS.

00:30:26   This is again, a little bit of a you're going for points.

00:30:28   Am I going for points here?

00:30:29   Maybe a little bit?

00:30:30   I suspect that there will be some iOS features that we haven't seen that are going to be

00:30:35   keyed to the new phones.

00:30:37   Something that was held back, something that all the beta testing in the world and iOS

00:30:42   12 didn't discover because it's being withheld because it's only being applied to the new

00:30:47   phones.

00:30:48   So, I think that's pretty high on my list.

00:30:50   I think that there typically tends to be something.

00:30:52   Yeah.

00:30:53   Even if it's just a new portrait mode feature or something, but the idea that there's something

00:30:58   that they did not show us at WWDC, but now is there enabled by the new hardware.

00:31:06   So something I want to exclude from that in case people bring it up.

00:31:10   I don't think you would try and score this, but landscape mode on the plus phone, right?

00:31:16   Because we haven't had that for a while, but it still exists in the current plus.

00:31:20   Well, yeah.

00:31:21   Landscape mode on the existing plus phones exists.

00:31:23   So that's not a new feature.

00:31:24   If they did split screen on the plus phone.

00:31:27   I wish they would, but that's what I desperately want that, but I don't think it's going to

00:31:31   happen yet.

00:31:32   I don't think so.

00:31:33   But I just wanted to point that out because I think not a lot of people used it and nobody's

00:31:39   really thought about it for over a year, right?

00:31:41   Because we're not talking about it.

00:31:42   I mean, we're barely talking about it then, but a lot of people have had the iPhone 10,

00:31:46   which you would have thought maybe would have done it, but didn't do it.

00:31:49   And they may spend some time showing it off again because it will be coming kind of back

00:31:53   to the top tier phones.

00:31:55   And I just wanted to make sure that that was excluded because we'll get people, because

00:31:58   as you will find in the show notes, as always, a scorecard.

00:32:02   So you can score along during the event.

00:32:04   And I think that this would be one of those things that people would all be scoring for

00:32:08   on that feature alone.

00:32:10   But who knows?

00:32:11   I do think that that will be a point for you because it would be kind of weird, right?

00:32:16   Like here's our new phone.

00:32:17   It has nothing new for software.

00:32:19   It would be kind of strange.

00:32:22   I think that would be a peculiar omission.

00:32:24   I'm going to go back to the naming part.

00:32:28   And I'm going to solidify what we've been talking about, that the bigger iPhone will

00:32:31   be given the Plus name.

00:32:34   The Plus brand is strong.

00:32:37   It is a good name that quite neatly sums up what makes that phone different.

00:32:43   I would be really surprised if they continue to use S but didn't use Plus in the naming

00:32:49   scheme.

00:32:50   Maybe they go with double XS, who knows?

00:32:52   But although that would be smaller, right?

00:32:55   Maybe they just go with XL.

00:32:57   Maybe one gets XS and one gets XL, but I doubt it.

00:33:00   I think you're going to go Plus.

00:33:02   Rick Allen in the chat is asking, Plus not Pro.

00:33:05   Now we have Pro in the list.

00:33:07   I don't think there will be any feature for this phone which would make it Pro.

00:33:11   I think if and when Apple implement the Apple Pencil into the iPhone, that might be when

00:33:20   they call it Pro.

00:33:21   Or if they gave it a 120 hertz screen, which I hadn't thought about until just now, which

00:33:26   could be a feature of these phones, which would be very nice, right?

00:33:32   But I think that's really difficult to do with OLED.

00:33:34   I don't think a lot of people are doing that right now.

00:33:38   But if and when they enable features like that onto the phones, they may give it the

00:33:41   Pro name.

00:33:43   Or there could be still sometime in the future a more expensive iPhone called the Pro, which

00:33:49   is above the Plus even, which I think I would expect Apple of 2018 to be more likely to

00:33:55   do than just change the name.

00:33:57   They would create a whole new tier of phone called the iPhone Pro, which is $1,500 and

00:34:04   has these two extra features that you can't get on other phones.

00:34:07   I don't think that this is the time that they will change it.

00:34:10   So I think that Plus is going to be the brand name that they keep for now.

00:34:16   That was the pick that I had queued up next.

00:34:19   So you got me.

00:34:20   I do think that it's a gamble, which is why I didn't have it super high on my list, but

00:34:26   it was sort of the last one left.

00:34:27   Because I do think they could change the naming now.

00:34:29   But I agree with you, the Plus naming is strong.

00:34:33   And if we're in a scenario where they're adding the S, then they seem to have decided to just

00:34:38   stick with what they've got.

00:34:39   Plus is a better brand than S is for what it does.

00:34:43   You could argue that the right thing to do is to just say we have this new model and

00:34:46   it comes in two sizes.

00:34:48   But they haven't done that ever before on iPhones.

00:34:51   So will they start now?

00:34:54   I don't know.

00:34:55   I'm not sure.

00:34:56   Good choice.

00:34:57   I am, boy, it's getting harder, Myke.

00:34:59   It's already getting harder and we're only halfway through.

00:35:02   Boy, I'm going to go with the one that I mentioned earlier, which is the counterpoint to your

00:35:08   AR app demo, which is I, so here's my rationale.

00:35:11   I didn't like AR app demo as much as what I'm picking, which is there will be a game

00:35:15   demo on stage that is not AR.

00:35:18   And that is specifically because an AR game demo is an AR app demo, right?

00:35:24   And that's the risky part here because I think there will absolutely be an AR demo of some

00:35:30   sort, but if, but, and it may be a game in which case you'll get it and I won't, which

00:35:35   is unfortunate because I want to win.

00:35:38   Here's my rationale for this.

00:35:40   I think Apple's talked about AR a lot, but there, and, and it's still part of their strategy,

00:35:46   but this is the fall iPhone event and it has always been, even back when it was the fall

00:35:51   music event, it's been about the holiday season.

00:35:55   One of the ways you show off your powerful processors and GPUs in your new phones is

00:36:03   by doing a spectacular game demo where the game developer comes up on stage and says,

00:36:09   this is console level graphics because of the using metal and the whatever, you know,

00:36:16   processors and GPU is blah, blah, blah.

00:36:19   And that's why I feel like, um, that's a thing that will happen and I'm willing to pick at

00:36:26   that.

00:36:27   It's just, it's a holiday, uh, holiday event, holiday facing event.

00:36:32   And to get people enthusiastic about these things because they're great to play games

00:36:36   and also to show off the GPUs in these devices, I think they'll do a game demo that is not

00:36:41   just an AR game demo, some other kind of game on stage.

00:36:45   I completely follow you, right?

00:36:47   Like I am in pretty much complete agreement with you, but I expect I may end up winning

00:36:53   this point because they'll have a game that will have an AR mode in it.

00:36:56   Yeah, I think that's the real, the real gamble here.

00:36:59   We may also both get points, right?

00:37:00   Where there's a traditional game demo and there's some weird AR demo.

00:37:03   That's also very possible.

00:37:04   I think it's entirely possible, but I just, I, I'm going with my gut feeling that like,

00:37:08   they've kind of AR'd a lot and it's still in the province of developers a little bit

00:37:15   and that maybe the, they choose the floor space this time on stage, the stage time for

00:37:23   a more traditional, let's blow them away with all the graphics and stuff in this game.

00:37:30   Now, um, we'll have to leave it to Steven Hackett to decide if there's an amazing, awesome

00:37:33   game demo and at the end they flip over and say, and there's also an AR mode, what that

00:37:38   means.

00:37:39   But, uh, I think, uh, maybe we'll both get points in that case.

00:37:42   Anyway, that's my choice.

00:37:43   ZM Knox in the chat has said something that I find very interesting.

00:37:46   I'd love to see Nintendo back at an Apple event showing off their Mario Kart mobile

00:37:50   game.

00:37:51   There is an upcoming Mario Kart mobile game.

00:37:54   We don't know anything more about it other than the fact that it exists and will exist.

00:37:58   Imagine if we, that we had that one, uh, was it last year's iPhone event where it was a

00:38:03   Miyamoto on stage?

00:38:04   Yeah, before I think it was the year before that was like, you know, no one could understand

00:38:08   what on earth.

00:38:09   It was like the earth had opened up, right?

00:38:12   Everything had jumped out.

00:38:13   Like it was wild.

00:38:14   That would have been a draft pick.

00:38:16   Um, Oh no, no way.

00:38:18   No way.

00:38:19   Like no one could have predicted that.

00:38:20   That would have been the all time draft pick.

00:38:21   Yes.

00:38:22   That would have been the all time.

00:38:23   Like you shut it down.

00:38:24   You won the draft if you predicted that one.

00:38:27   Um, that could happen again.

00:38:29   I mean, Super Mario Run was part of the success that it was because of the fact that it was

00:38:34   shown off in the way that it was.

00:38:35   So who knows?

00:38:36   Maybe at some point that could happen and it could happen this time.

00:38:40   We don't know.

00:38:42   So we are halfway through.

00:38:44   There are whole product lines, three product lines that we have not yet mentioned.

00:38:51   Indeed.

00:38:52   I wonder what that means.

00:38:53   What does that mean for the 2018 draft?

00:38:55   We will see maybe after this break.

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00:40:31   We move into draft pick number 6.

00:40:36   Now, hmm, okay.

00:40:39   Alright.

00:40:40   I feel like we led into something interesting so I'm going to move one of my picks up a

00:40:44   little bit because I am confident about it.

00:40:48   There will be no mention of Mako Es Mahave on stage at all.

00:40:54   Wow.

00:40:55   That's a bold move.

00:40:58   I may be tipping my hand a bit about what I think is going to be in this event.

00:41:03   Yeah, well that's part of it.

00:41:06   There are a few product lines that I think won't get mentioned.

00:41:11   There's one that I think might get mentioned but as time goes on I'm being a little bit

00:41:15   more cautious with it.

00:41:19   But what I don't think will be mentioned at all, I don't think the Mac will.

00:41:23   This is a pick for later so we'll see if I get to it.

00:41:25   But I cannot imagine Mahave being mentioned because Mahave might not even be coming out

00:41:31   in September.

00:41:32   We don't know this.

00:41:33   You know, some of my friends that I've spoken to seem to indicate to me that Mahave is in

00:41:38   a little bit worse of a state than iOS 12 is and there doesn't really seem to be any

00:41:46   particular reason with this cycle that you would need to put them out together and I

00:41:51   just can't imagine Apple giving time to demo Mahave on stage when there's so much other

00:42:01   stuff that fits the September event more.

00:42:05   I agree with you.

00:42:06   One of the items that I've got on my list is also about the limits of the Mac's participation

00:42:12   in this event.

00:42:14   But here's my hesitation and it's why I was hesitating to pick the other one as well.

00:42:19   My hesitation is you don't get a point if they say we've got a lot of great updates,

00:42:25   Mac OS Mahave is coming out later this year, blah blah blah blah blah, right?

00:42:29   They have to pretend essentially that it doesn't exist at all.

00:42:33   This is more extreme than the one I was going to pick because I was trying to pick some

00:42:37   way where it's like the Mac isn't mentioned except for Mahave or something like that,

00:42:42   right?

00:42:43   Like they'll mention that the update exists or that the Mac exists but it'll be no more

00:42:46   than like two mentions or something like that.

00:42:49   So I think this is a tricky pick.

00:42:51   I think you might get it.

00:42:53   But I think it's tricky.

00:42:54   It is risky.

00:42:55   It is risky for sure.

00:42:56   But I'm kind of looking at what we have, I think they're more likely to mention the Mac

00:43:01   in general as a concept than they are Mahave because I just can't imagine them doing it

00:43:06   then.

00:43:07   That's fair.

00:43:08   Because there isn't really a lot of like super really exciting features for consumers.

00:43:12   There's stuff in it like dark mode is really nice, the dynamic desktop stuff is really

00:43:16   nice, the updates to find are really nice.

00:43:19   But I just can't imagine them devoting any time to it.

00:43:23   And if they're not going to devote specific time to Mahave, I don't even imagine them

00:43:27   being like, "Oh, and it's gonna, Mahave will be out week after next."

00:43:30   Because there's no context for it unless they're going to actually show it.

00:43:33   If they're not going to show it, then what's the point in mentioning it?

00:43:37   And if there is a Mac event in late October, they don't need to talk about it at all.

00:43:42   I think that there will be an event later on this year and I don't think Mahave will

00:43:46   ship before it.

00:43:47   All right.

00:43:48   So that's an interesting prediction.

00:43:49   I am going into this event knowing what we know now, of course there will be other horrible

00:43:55   leaks probably in the next eight or nine days.

00:43:58   I'm going in now with this assumption.

00:44:01   I believe Apple only wants to do one event.

00:44:04   I believe they're going to pack everything they can into this event, but not the Mac.

00:44:13   That's my prediction, is that the Mac releases will happen with some pre-briefings and press

00:44:18   releases and no event.

00:44:20   Do you think that that does include Mahave just out of interest?

00:44:23   Like, do you, I mean you personally, do you think they're really going to spend any time

00:44:26   on next Wednesday?

00:44:28   Spend time on Mahave?

00:44:29   I don't think so.

00:44:30   I think they'll mention it.

00:44:31   I think it's more likely than not that it will be mentioned in passing as part of their

00:44:34   software update that the Mac, essentially the Mac remains a product in our lineup.

00:44:38   I do think they will probably say that.

00:44:40   I do think there's a non-zero chance that they will, it will be, that if you didn't

00:44:44   know that they made personal computers called the Mac, you would be able to not be surprised

00:44:48   in the entire thing.

00:44:49   I think it's a possibility that the Mac is not mentioned at all.

00:44:52   I think it's more likely that they will mention it as one of the many awesome things that

00:44:56   they're doing in passing.

00:44:57   And it is worth mentioning, right?

00:44:59   Like this pick has come up before and it was correct, right?

00:45:03   Like there was a draft at some point.

00:45:05   I think it may have been last year's September draft.

00:45:07   I think last year there was Mac not mentioned on stage and it won.

00:45:12   Or did it, or did it, they got, maybe it got mentioned in passing one time, like, and also

00:45:17   on the Mac and...

00:45:19   Or maybe WWDC was the HomePod one.

00:45:21   Like this idea of there being like important products that are not mentioned.

00:45:27   Not even the name uttered is a thing that exists.

00:45:30   That's the trick is there's not mentioning it versus mentioning it only in passing.

00:45:33   And you're going for not mentioned.

00:45:34   I, so having explained my worldview, which is, I don't think they want to do two events.

00:45:39   And again, I could totally be wrong.

00:45:40   I don't have any intelligence on this one.

00:45:41   I don't have any secret birdies telling me things.

00:45:44   I just am thinking it's a lot to do events.

00:45:46   Apple has not done a...

00:45:48   They only have two events now.

00:45:50   This will be the second event for the public in the Steve Jobs Theater.

00:45:54   So I'm not sure they want to do a second event and I'm not sure they want to do a second

00:46:00   event in the Steve Jobs Theater.

00:46:02   Planning events is hard.

00:46:03   We look back at the history of it.

00:46:06   They do one of these events every year.

00:46:08   They've done two in the last, I think five or six years, October events.

00:46:11   And they've been at the end of October.

00:46:13   And that's because it takes a long time to plan an event.

00:46:16   And then you do this event and it's exhausting.

00:46:18   And they're doing their PR tours for all the stuff that gets announced here.

00:46:21   And then in the meantime, other people are planning the next product rollout.

00:46:26   It's a lot of work.

00:46:28   Whereas there are some things that they've shown with the Mac that they can do without.

00:46:32   However, there's this other product that we haven't mentioned.

00:46:35   And I'm gonna, again, not feeling super confident about this, but if I'm gonna go with my theory

00:46:42   that they're only doing one event and this is an S year for the iPhone, a little bit

00:46:49   quieter, I think there's gonna be enough time for them to show the iPhone 10 inspired updates

00:46:57   to the iPad Pro.

00:46:58   - I hope you're right so much.

00:47:00   Like, okay, so I still have faith in this.

00:47:02   I've been talking about this for the last couple of weeks, right?

00:47:05   That like, in spite of everything against the country, like I believe they're gonna

00:47:09   show off the iPad Pros like for the same reason that the original iPad Pro was debuted alongside

00:47:14   the iPhone.

00:47:15   It was a big product, a big announcement, and they want everyone's eyes on this new

00:47:21   product.

00:47:22   But the stuff has happened in the last week has put me on shaky ground a little bit.

00:47:25   Now it does, just because there were no pictures of the iPad Pro doesn't mean--

00:47:29   - No, they didn't leak some images of a product, oh no.

00:47:32   - But like that has made me like, ugh.

00:47:35   - Oh yeah.

00:47:36   - Like just, my, it's gone down a little bit.

00:47:38   - Why is it in the sixth round, Myke, right?

00:47:40   It's because I too have been given some pause, but I keep coming back to thinking, I don't

00:47:45   think they wanna do another event.

00:47:47   And let's point out, like Apple Watch and iPhone, okay, those are both good, but like,

00:47:51   I feel like the iPad Pro, if they really are removing the bezels and doing face ID and

00:47:56   all of that, like, I feel like that's a pretty substantial thing in a year where some of

00:48:03   the other updates are a little less substantial.

00:48:06   And it's all iOS, right?

00:48:07   iOS-y kind of stuff together?

00:48:09   - Yep, yep, yep.

00:48:10   - 'Cause I don't think an iPad plus Mac event makes a lot of sense.

00:48:15   Like come see our new stuff that we didn't already announce is a very weird invitation

00:48:21   to send out.

00:48:22   I feel like the iPad has gotta stick close with its cousin, the iPhone.

00:48:28   - There is something about that that I agree with you, but there is, I think there's something

00:48:31   also to be argued about new iPad Pros and a new set of Macs could be an event, right,

00:48:38   that you spend like a 80-minute event and you do like 50 minutes on the new iPads and

00:48:44   then you've got a bunch of Mac stuff, right?

00:48:46   Those new iPads could bring some eyeballs, but I agree with you though that it makes

00:48:52   more sense for this product to be alongside the iPhone because this is, as you say, an

00:48:59   iPhone-inspired iPad Pro.

00:49:02   You'd be like, "Oh, you've seen these new iPhones?

00:49:04   We've been thinking about how we applied this to the iPad.

00:49:07   Here is what we have.

00:49:08   It's the future of the iPad."

00:49:09   - Yeah, exactly.

00:49:10   - The iPad Pro 10 or some silly name.

00:49:12   - All of these devices have no bezels and edge-to-edge screens.

00:49:15   - And then they have a slide about Face ID and it shows it across their entire iOS product

00:49:20   line, right?

00:49:21   There's definite reasons.

00:49:22   But it gave me pause for thought because there wasn't any images.

00:49:25   But here is my point on that, which makes me feel a little bit better.

00:49:30   We are very confident there's going to be the iPhone 9.

00:49:33   There were no images of the iPhone 9.

00:49:35   - Yes.

00:49:36   - Right, so I'm now going to go for my pick number seven.

00:49:40   I believe that we will see a new generation of AirPods at the event, which includes a

00:49:46   new feature.

00:49:48   So that means more than just this case works with AirPower.

00:49:53   And I think that what it will be is there will be a new version.

00:49:56   This is not the pick, but adding my context, there'll be a new version of the, what is

00:50:02   it called, the W chip, right?

00:50:04   This will be like W3, I think, which will have a high telephone support.

00:50:09   This has been a rumor that's been around for a while that Apple are working on a bunch

00:50:12   of new things in audio.

00:50:15   I think it is time, will be two years on the current generation of AirPods, right?

00:50:20   I think that now's the time.

00:50:21   This is an incredibly popular product.

00:50:23   It is becoming more popular.

00:50:24   I see them everywhere now.

00:50:27   I think that it is time that Apple have a new version and like it gets more battery

00:50:31   life and it's nicer in this way and nicer in this way.

00:50:34   And now you can speak to your good old friend Siri, all this wonderful Siri shortcut stuff

00:50:39   by just out saying, because in case you don't know, you cannot summon with voice right now.

00:50:45   You have to do the double tapping.

00:50:47   So you can summon with voice and then they could maybe add some more features that the

00:50:51   double tapping or the tapping can do or whatever.

00:50:53   But I think that we're going to see new AirPods because they are, so we have no question about

00:50:59   the watch, right?

00:51:00   Because the watch is an iPhone accessory.

00:51:03   So they are of course announced together.

00:51:05   I think the AirPod is a big enough product now.

00:51:08   And it is another iPhone accessory.

00:51:10   So they could spend a minute saying, and we have a new version of AirPods that's coming

00:51:15   out the same day and you can now say, Ahoy telephone, speak to your good old friend Siri.

00:51:20   And I think that that will be a quick win for Apple in the presentation.

00:51:26   I like this pick.

00:51:27   I did not rate it very high on the chance list, but you are making me feel a little

00:51:34   bit more positive about it.

00:51:35   You're right.

00:51:36   It is an iPhone accessory first and foremost.

00:51:38   And this would be the time to announce it if they've got it.

00:51:42   What they previously announced is that there would be a new case that would support the

00:51:46   AirPower charger that doesn't exist.

00:51:48   So that was always an interim solution that I now think may not ever exist now because

00:51:55   there may be a case up, you know, case update available since they announced it, they may

00:52:00   make it available, but it may be largely irrelevant, right?

00:52:03   If there's a new AirPod generation with it.

00:52:05   Because for like $30 more, you can just get the new version, right?

00:52:09   So you never know.

00:52:10   Yeah, you never know.

00:52:11   That's Oh, that's really a, that's an interesting pick.

00:52:14   Um, boy, I, yeah, the picks are getting harder.

00:52:18   We're into seven, your pick seven now.

00:52:21   I am going to go with, uh, an item that, uh, I think you put on our list, but then I'm

00:52:28   going to choose it here.

00:52:29   And it's sort of the counterpart, the watchOS counterpart to my iOS pick, which is, I think

00:52:34   it will be some new features in watchOS 5, not shown at WWDC that are tied to this series

00:52:39   five.

00:52:40   And that we should say this, if, if all that is new is the new complications that we saw

00:52:45   in the nine to five Mac image, that doesn't count, right?

00:52:50   Like, cause we, that is not on the board here, but the idea that there will be something

00:52:54   new in the watch.

00:52:55   Let's do a little bit of a, let's do a little bit of clarification on this one.

00:52:59   We've seen new complications.

00:53:01   What if we see them in a different way?

00:53:03   We just talking about if they say, Oh, we have new complications.

00:53:06   That's not enough.

00:53:07   I think we need to see more than we saw in that image.

00:53:09   Like Oh look, there's a new temperature one that shows the high and low visually and they

00:53:13   show it on a different face.

00:53:15   That doesn't do it.

00:53:16   However, if they show a whole new method of adding complications in different ways, I

00:53:20   think maybe that is worth having, having the conversation.

00:53:24   Just a new visual look for complications is not enough.

00:53:27   We would need to see something else, which might be like the way you pick them, right?

00:53:31   Which would be totally new.

00:53:32   We haven't seen it yet.

00:53:33   Functionality changes that we haven't seen yet that are, I, again, my inclination is

00:53:39   that they hold features back that are tied to the hardware.

00:53:43   Yeah.

00:53:44   And like it's stuff that doesn't touch developers, right?

00:53:46   So like I saw, I think it was Benjamin Mayo talking about this on Twitter that like you

00:53:50   can have this new complication stuff and developers don't need to do anything because the way

00:53:54   that the complication stuff works is as a developer, you say, I need you to like have

00:54:01   the number.

00:54:02   So like say you need, say you're doing a, an app which has a countdown on it.

00:54:05   You can say, well, you need to show the number and some kind of progress bar.

00:54:09   And the way that that is visually displayed is all up to Apple.

00:54:12   You just declare what you want it to show.

00:54:16   And then the implementation of that is on Apple because there are different ways of

00:54:20   showing it on different watch faces even now, right?

00:54:24   Like the different watch faces have different application styles.

00:54:27   So you give them the, like the little pieces of it and then the different faces will display

00:54:31   it in different ways based on the size of the space that you're putting the complication

00:54:35   in and what the design of that face is.

00:54:40   Yep.

00:54:41   Interesting.

00:54:42   Anyway, I think there'll be something new with watchOS and that is an add on just for

00:54:46   the new hardware and it will be fun to see it.

00:54:49   All right.

00:54:50   We're into round eight here.

00:54:53   Now I'm gonna, I'm gonna try if I, if I believe, still have belief that there will be new iPads

00:55:03   and to put my picks where my belief is, uh, new iPads to have face ID.

00:55:09   I think that's, I almost picked that to double down on the new iPads and I thought, no, let's,

00:55:15   let's just let each of us get a point for this.

00:55:17   Yeah.

00:55:18   I don't want to double down on that one after all.

00:55:19   If there are new iPad pros, the one thing we can all agree on is that they will have

00:55:24   face ID.

00:55:25   Yeah.

00:55:26   Right.

00:55:27   Because they could wait six months, they could wait a year, you know, like as a listening

00:55:30   to the episode of the talk show you did with Joan Gruber and uh, you both made the point

00:55:36   of like the hardware right now is still really good.

00:55:40   I mean, we waited between 18 months and two years for new iPad hardware depending on,

00:55:47   you know, for the first revision and it was fine.

00:55:50   And right now my iPads are fine except for the fact that my 12.9 inch screen is broken,

00:55:55   but that's nothing to do with Apple.

00:55:56   That was my fault.

00:55:57   Uh, by the way, still going strong, using it every day, right?

00:56:02   It is clearly very visibly getting worse, but when I'm using it, it's not completely

00:56:08   clear that it's all broken.

00:56:09   But anyway, um, so I, I do really want new iPads so I can replace it.

00:56:14   Um, and I think that one of the locks that we will see here is the new iPad's iPad's

00:56:20   face ID.

00:56:21   I think if it's going to have any features, it's going to have that.

00:56:24   I, boy, I kind of want to go to a pricing one here, um, because I've got a couple that

00:56:32   I've left out there.

00:56:34   Um, I'm going to go with that LCD iPhone with the big screen being less than the iPhone

00:56:46   10 price of $999.

00:56:48   Right?

00:56:49   It's supposed to be cheaper.

00:56:52   I still think that this is debatable because it's Apple, right?

00:56:55   Like betting that something is cheaper that's an Apple product is super dangerous.

00:57:02   So I want to clarify this, the LCD iPhone, the 6.1 inch or whatever it's going to be,

00:57:08   the LCD iPhone will be less than $999, right?

00:57:12   Uh, yeah.

00:57:13   Oh yeah.

00:57:14   You're right.

00:57:15   That was a different pick on our list.

00:57:16   You can still make that pick.

00:57:17   You can still make that pick.

00:57:18   Yeah.

00:57:19   That's, that's the one that I want to make is that the LCD iPhone will be less than $999.

00:57:22   That it will be, it's not going to be like, uh, it's a big phone, but it's cheaper than

00:57:27   the other big phones because, but it's still $999.

00:57:30   I think, I think it will be like $899 or, or below, but let's just say less than $999.

00:57:36   I think I want to, I want to put a little money down on this rumor that it is very specifically

00:57:41   meant to be a lower cost device.

00:57:43   All right.

00:57:46   This is round nine.

00:57:47   I'm struggling now.

00:57:48   Yeah.

00:57:49   Oh, I'm out of good choices now.

00:57:50   I have, I have a bunch of things left and I'm just not sure how to arrange them.

00:57:59   I feel like there's some stuff I can double down on that I feel confident about, which

00:58:05   would get me two times the points.

00:58:07   Right.

00:58:08   But if I'm wrong, I lose two times the points.

00:58:13   I know this is why I didn't pick a new iPads to have face ID, which was laying for laying

00:58:17   there for me, uh, because I was concerned to put two points down for iPads being at

00:58:23   this event.

00:58:24   I don't know about this one, but I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm going to go back to the Apple watch.

00:58:34   Am I going to go to the Apple watch?

00:58:37   No, I'm not.

00:58:43   But that we're going to do bring out your dead.

00:58:45   So this is the thing, uh, after we've done all of our picks, we're going to do a bring

00:58:48   out your dead.

00:58:49   So you'll hear all the things that we had on our kind of like in our minds, I might

00:58:53   come back to the Apple watch one.

00:58:54   I don't know if I'm going to do that right now.

00:58:56   And I am going to double down and I am going to say pick number nine, the Mac will not

00:59:01   be mentioned on stage.

00:59:03   Wow.

00:59:04   Wow.

00:59:06   It could be a huge swing there.

00:59:10   Yeah.

00:59:11   I'm so I am confident.

00:59:13   I feel very confident about Mojave and I figure if they don't do it, they don't mention Mojave.

00:59:21   Is there any need to mention the Mac at all?

00:59:26   And I don't think there is.

00:59:28   And I think they will not.

00:59:30   So I think that the categorically will be no new Macs announced next Wednesday.

00:59:35   I don't think that's going to happen next Wednesday because I don't believe they are

00:59:40   going to have anything so exciting that it is worth squeezing the rest of the announcements,

00:59:48   which are, sorry everyone, ultimately a lot more important.

00:59:53   Look at the revenue numbers.

00:59:54   Like they're ultimately more, everything else in that line is ultimately more important.

00:59:59   Even the Apple watch, because it is an iPhone accessory, right?

01:00:02   Like it is an exciting, it's something that Apple continued to be excited about.

01:00:07   So I don't believe there's going to be any new Mac hardware.

01:00:10   And if they have no new Mac hardware, why do they even need to talk about the Mac at

01:00:15   all?

01:00:16   I'm not showing off Mojave, which I already think is going to happen.

01:00:18   I think that Apple will give time to the Mac.

01:00:21   Either they will have a little event or they will bring in a bunch of press and they will

01:00:26   make a song and dance about the Mac before the end of the year.

01:00:29   But an event next week misses the back to school time by like a week.

01:00:38   And that is kind of embarrassing.

01:00:39   So you may as well hold it a little bit longer, especially when at least one of the rumored

01:00:46   products is perfect for back to school, which is a new version of the MacBook Air.

01:00:52   So I don't believe there's not going to be any new Macs, but my actual pick is Mac will

01:00:59   not be mentioned on stage.

01:01:01   Wow.

01:01:02   That is, uh, that's super risky.

01:01:05   You may be right.

01:01:06   Well, like here's the thing.

01:01:07   I know that's super risky.

01:01:08   If I get it wrong, whatever, if I get it right though, it looks great.

01:01:13   It's over.

01:01:14   Well, I do agree.

01:01:15   I look, I, earlier in this very podcast, I said, my theory is that they will announce

01:01:20   the iPads at this event, but they won't announce Macs and they won't do another event.

01:01:23   And they will announce the Macs using some other means just as they did with the MacBook

01:01:26   Pro.

01:01:27   Um, not, um, far from a hundred percent confident.

01:01:30   This is here's, here's why I'm a bad pundit is that pundits are really great at saying,

01:01:35   I'm confident that this thing will happen.

01:01:37   Whereas I look at something that I think might happen at like 50 50 or 60 40.

01:01:41   And I'm like, eh, it might happen.

01:01:43   Right.

01:01:44   And that's, that's, you know, you should have more confidence in your kind of questionable

01:01:47   opinion if you're going to be a really good pundit.

01:01:49   And I'm bad at that.

01:01:50   Um, all of that said, Myke, um, I love that you're doubling down on the Mac, not being

01:01:55   there.

01:01:56   And that's why I'm picking the sub thousand dollar Mac laptop will be announced on stage.

01:02:00   Perfect.

01:02:01   I love it.

01:02:02   This is what makes the draw fun.

01:02:03   Here's the thing.

01:02:04   Here's the thing.

01:02:05   I believe I have a lot of really good points leading up to now.

01:02:10   I agree.

01:02:11   I agree.

01:02:12   I was going to say when we broke between, uh, between the first five rounds and the

01:02:17   last five rounds that I was, I am already not confident about my choices here.

01:02:22   So I wanted to throw one out there, which if I get the point, it's like, to me feels

01:02:31   like I've won everything.

01:02:32   And what you did is you opened the door for me to kind of counter that with saying, Oh,

01:02:38   you think the Mac's not going to be mentioned?

01:02:40   I think they will introduce a new Mac, even though I don't really think that, but if that

01:02:46   happens, that's a, that's a three point swing.

01:02:49   So you know, that's exciting.

01:02:51   I feel like you got to get it.

01:02:52   You know, you've been known in the past, right?

01:02:55   They're going to bring out spinal tap or whatever.

01:02:57   Right.

01:02:58   And this is my spinal tap.

01:03:00   The Mac not being mentioned is my spinal tap and I got nothing against it.

01:03:04   Right?

01:03:05   Like I'm not doing this because like I'm trying to hate on the Mac.

01:03:08   Like I re I love the Mac.

01:03:11   I love the iPad more, but I want there to be a better Mac line.

01:03:17   I'm, I'm very excited about a Mac mini.

01:03:20   Like if they announce a Mac mini sometime this year, I'm going to buy one of those because

01:03:24   I think I could do some cool stuff with that.

01:03:26   This is more like your inner Apple.

01:03:28   Yeah.

01:03:29   I don't like the Mac very much.

01:03:30   Not, not you, not Myke Hurley, but your conception of how Apple feels is that they don't, that

01:03:34   they're not going to use this event for the Mac, which is a less important product to

01:03:38   them.

01:03:39   My view of Apple here right now, like my, as you say, my internal Apple says that the

01:03:44   September event is not a Mac event.

01:03:46   Like they have a lot of stuff.

01:03:48   Like personally, I feel like the Apple TV is more likely to get time because it's just

01:03:54   a different shakeup.

01:03:55   Like they have stuff for the Mac later.

01:03:58   They have stuff and like they don't ever need to put the Mac on stage because I don't think

01:04:02   it pushes the needle one way or another.

01:04:05   Like it is a, has been a very stable line.

01:04:09   People know what they want.

01:04:10   I don't think they need to do a lot to ever sell those products, especially when like

01:04:15   one of the products that we know about this sub $1,000 laptop, they've missed the right

01:04:21   time for it.

01:04:23   Like it would have sold a lot if they would've got it out before back to school.

01:04:27   Right.

01:04:28   Would you agree with that?

01:04:29   Uh, yeah.

01:04:30   Although traditionally they, I mean, they did miss that time.

01:04:32   They could have, they could have announced more things in, in June and in July.

01:04:37   It would do great for the holidays, right?

01:04:38   It would do great for the holidays, but that doesn't mean they need to unveil it next Wednesday.

01:04:42   They could do it in October and it will probably do just about good because it's, it's less

01:04:48   of a frilly purchase, right?

01:04:51   Like people make these purchases purposefully and I just don't think it needs the time.

01:04:57   I think they have a lot of stuff that has to have the time and then they have a lot

01:05:00   of stuff that they would want to give the time to more.

01:05:03   I think Apple know that they've, they've hit on something with the iPad pro, right?

01:05:07   Like that the iPad line is going is positive again.

01:05:12   And I think if they have iPads and they have max, they really want to show the iPads more

01:05:17   because it might be more important for right now.

01:05:21   So we'll see.

01:05:23   All right.

01:05:24   Final pick.

01:05:29   Final pick.

01:05:30   Okay.

01:05:32   Now let me think.

01:05:34   I do not have anything here, which is particularly, I feel very excited about or very confident

01:05:45   about.

01:05:46   I have a few little items here.

01:05:49   I don't know whether to hedge my bets a little bit with this one and maybe pick something

01:05:53   against myself.

01:05:56   Hmm.

01:05:59   I am going to say for my final pick that there will be drum roll.

01:06:11   No new iPads.

01:06:12   Oh, okay.

01:06:15   Plan to win.

01:06:16   But that goes against, you've guaranteed that one of your picks is wrong now.

01:06:19   Because you already picked that the iPad would have face on you.

01:06:24   I guess you guaranteed that one of your picks is right.

01:06:26   That's what I'm going for.

01:06:27   Okay.

01:06:28   I'm picking up, I'm trying to pick up a point because I have nothing.

01:06:31   So I'll tell in a moment, I'm going to tell you what was left for me.

01:06:34   And then I can tell you why I think that none of that stuff is particularly, I feel particularly

01:06:41   sure about.

01:06:43   So if I don't feel sure, I may as well go for getting a point.

01:06:48   Now the point of the draft, right?

01:06:51   Because there's a lot of people very upset at me in the chat room right now.

01:06:54   The point of the draft, I'm playing to win.

01:06:56   They want to win.

01:06:57   I want to get points.

01:06:59   So I want to make sure I pick up at least a point, which is iPad related.

01:07:04   One is its existence and one is its non-existence.

01:07:08   And on the off chance that they only do iPhones, because look, they have three iPhones to show

01:07:13   off.

01:07:14   They've never had that before.

01:07:15   Right?

01:07:16   They've got three iPhones at least by the way, to get some significant time because

01:07:21   they want to sell them all as well as at least one new Apple watch.

01:07:26   We don't even know what the situation is there.

01:07:29   I, you know, that on its own, you could do with enough demos, close to two hours.

01:07:37   If they have a bunch of other stuff to show later off this year, they could do it.

01:07:40   They could do an event in two weeks time for all we know from now.

01:07:44   Right?

01:07:45   Yeah.

01:07:46   I mean, it seems unlikely, but they could certainly do an event in late October if they

01:07:49   wanted to.

01:07:50   Absolutely.

01:07:51   Didn't they do that once though?

01:07:52   Like they did an event and then caught everyone back again the week after.

01:07:55   I have a memory of this.

01:07:57   I don't think so.

01:07:59   I'm sure that there was an event that they did once at least.

01:08:02   Maybe it wasn't that soon, but like the idea of the event was like, we're doing it again.

01:08:06   Right?

01:08:07   Do you remember that one at least?

01:08:08   I don't know if necessarily the timing, but they did like an October event where they

01:08:12   were like, Oh, come on back kind of thing.

01:08:14   Yeah, but I think it was still like four or five weeks later.

01:08:17   Okay.

01:08:18   So yeah, I mean, I know I'm going for tactics.

01:08:21   I'm going for strategy.

01:08:22   I want to win September and I'm going to give myself that point.

01:08:26   Okay.

01:08:27   Congratulations.

01:08:28   You've guaranteed yourself a point.

01:08:29   I'm trying to think of some way where you could get multiple points there and it's not

01:08:34   possible.

01:08:35   There either you've chosen, but just let's be clear here.

01:08:38   You've chosen the existence of new iPads.

01:08:41   I picked that as well and the non-existence of new iPads.

01:08:44   Yep.

01:08:45   Well look, I doubled down on the Mac thing, right?

01:08:49   So yep, you did.

01:08:50   I want to make sure I'm not throwing away all my points.

01:08:54   I want to make sure in this back five I've at least picked up something.

01:08:58   I think you may win this draft, but your, your strategy here in the back half has been

01:09:02   a little bit bizarre and we'll just see how it plays out.

01:09:05   Hey look, who expected any different, right?

01:09:07   Surely you know me by now.

01:09:09   You expect my last pick here probably to be the Spinal Tap pick and I'll tell you the new

01:09:14   Mac laptop sub thousand dollars is that's my spinal tap pick.

01:09:20   Here at the end I'm going to go with a little more gentle thing.

01:09:24   I was going to get it down to the millimeter, but I'm not going to do that.

01:09:27   Instead I'm just going to say I am going to put a point down on the series four Apple Watch

01:09:33   being at least slightly thinner than the series three Apple Watch.

01:09:40   So I don't think they want to make it thicker.

01:09:42   It might be exactly the same, but I want, I want them to push it back toward like the

01:09:47   series two thickness, which is only a couple millimeters thinner, but I am willing to put

01:09:52   a point down on the idea that Apple is striving to make that product thinner again.

01:09:57   All right, so I believe, well this is what I was going to go with.

01:10:03   This was going to be my final final pick.

01:10:06   But you did that crazy thing instead.

01:10:07   No, no, it could be thinner, but it might be so small they don't mention it.

01:10:13   Right.

01:10:14   Well that's that's uh, that's the question is will it be, will it be thinner than the

01:10:21   series three?

01:10:22   Because here's the thing about the Apple Watch, right?

01:10:25   It hasn't really gotten any thinner.

01:10:27   It's actually gotten thicker over time.

01:10:29   And the reason is because they keep putting new stuff in it.

01:10:31   Now what we believe we know about this is that the screen is bigger and if the screen

01:10:35   is bigger, it might need a bigger battery.

01:10:37   And if it needs a bigger battery, especially if one of the software features that they

01:10:42   might be announcing is sleep tracking, right?

01:10:45   That making it thinner might be a bad idea.

01:10:49   I get a point for that by the way.

01:10:50   Yeah.

01:10:51   Right.

01:10:52   This is, yeah.

01:10:53   ZM Knox in the chat room points out though, and this is absolutely right.

01:10:56   If anything gets thinner at any point, Apple will mention it.

01:11:00   Yeah, but I'm sorry it might not be thinner at all.

01:11:03   It might not be.

01:11:04   It might not be.

01:11:05   That's why I think that it is a risky choice as always.

01:11:08   That is not, that's why it was the 10th pick.

01:11:11   But I, I want to believe that the Steve Jobs law, which is everything gets thinner and

01:11:18   lighter has to apply to the Apple Watch at some point given that its last step actually

01:11:24   bloated it a little bit.

01:11:28   I would like more battery and then always on display and I don't mind how thick it is,

01:11:33   but I know other people do and I know it got, it's got to kill the product designers at Apple

01:11:37   that it got thicker.

01:11:38   So I think I was going to set like an over under on millimeters of thickness.

01:11:42   I'm like, nah, let's just say it's going to be thinner than the series.

01:11:44   Take your point, man.

01:11:45   Take your point.

01:11:46   Yep.

01:11:47   Yep.

01:11:48   I would say, especially for this back five picks, this is maybe one of the more controversial

01:11:52   drafts we've had.

01:11:54   Well, it is, I think it's a real, real interesting challenge here where we have evolved over

01:12:00   the last few years from a pick of here are the things I'd like to see to I need to beat

01:12:05   you at the draft.

01:12:06   That's a combo, right?

01:12:08   This is a little column A, little column B.

01:12:10   Yeah.

01:12:11   What I have beaten out of a lot of my picks is wish casting, which is, you know, where

01:12:15   I, where I, there's something I want to have happen.

01:12:17   So I pick it and there is advantage in that that's like betting on your favorite team

01:12:21   to win the Superbowl or the world series where, you know, you are, uh, you get extra reason

01:12:26   to root for the team that you're rooting for.

01:12:29   Great, great.

01:12:30   That's fine.

01:12:31   But you, if your team loses, you also lose money.

01:12:34   So you know, so I have seven more things that I had put into my kind of, uh, my, my, uh,

01:12:43   whittled down to my personal list that I want to talk about in our bring out your deck segment.

01:12:49   This is the 10 picks by the way.

01:12:51   The only things that are scored, everything else is not scored that we talk about.

01:12:55   I mentioned again in the show notes, you will find a PDF, which you can download and score

01:13:00   along with us and everything as it says on the PDF is as we have spoken about it on the

01:13:05   show.

01:13:06   So it was locked in place.

01:13:08   That is it.

01:13:09   The draft is complete.

01:13:11   No more things added, nothing changed.

01:13:14   They are our 10 picks for the September event of 2018.

01:13:18   So we do want to talk about some of the other things that we think might happen next Wednesday.

01:13:23   Before we do, let me thank our final sponsor and that's Squarespace.

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01:14:00   Wouldn't that be something?

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01:14:55   All right, so, um, shall I just run through all of my bring out your dead and then you

01:15:00   could do the same because then we can just talk about them if I have them.

01:15:03   Sure.

01:15:04   So, stuff that you, you considered picking because not everything really I think did

01:15:09   we consider in the end, but, uh, yeah, yeah.

01:15:12   Let me know.

01:15:13   Let's hear it.

01:15:14   One of mine was the original pricing thing that we had and we ended up, you went with

01:15:18   an adopted, like an adapted version, which I think is totally valid, but one of the original

01:15:22   ones we had was about the iPhone 10 and that it's replacement.

01:15:25   So the 10s probably, uh, would be less than $999 and I just don't think that's going to

01:15:31   happen.

01:15:32   So Roger Qo, who is pretty good with supply chain, but again, as we've said before, marketing

01:15:38   and pricing is not supply chain.

01:15:41   Roger Qo said that product was going to be priced between 800 and 899, which would imply

01:15:47   that the successor to the iPhone 10 is going to be $100 less than the iPhone 10 was.

01:15:53   And you and I both know it's very hard to bet on Apple lowering prices like that's not

01:15:58   what they do.

01:15:59   In fact, I had one that I added as we were going and then I didn't pick it, but I almost

01:16:05   picked it at the bottom, which was iPhone 10 remains on the price list.

01:16:10   Which if these are truly the 10s models and not just the new 10, then the 10 probably

01:16:17   will remain on the price list and maybe it'll be 9 or 899.

01:16:21   Unless you remember all those, uh, all those supply chain rumors that ended up making every

01:16:27   analyst in the world say that the iPhone 10 was selling badly, but what may have been

01:16:31   the actual result is that the 10 just goes away.

01:16:34   Yeah.

01:16:35   They stopped making it because they're making the new one now.

01:16:36   Yeah.

01:16:37   That's possible too.

01:16:38   So that, that's why like, you know, I was also thinking, Hmm, what about that one?

01:16:42   And I wasn't so sure.

01:16:43   In the same vein, we had some picks on here about a new iPhone to replace the iPhone 8,

01:16:49   right?

01:16:50   Like that there would be something like a 8C or a 7C.

01:16:54   I think that it is possible, but I don't, or an 8S or an 8S.

01:16:59   I just, I would be really surprised to see them do that because that's a lot of iPhones

01:17:04   to release at once.

01:17:06   Like that is just a lot going on and, and more likely that the 8 remains on the price

01:17:10   list.

01:17:11   It's still available.

01:17:12   It's still a really good phone.

01:17:13   And that next spring, maybe there's an adjustment there, which is the hot theory right now,

01:17:19   which is that it, you know, there could be an update to the SE and that could either

01:17:22   be the SE as we know it, or it could be redefining the SE as the successor to the 8.

01:17:27   Yeah.

01:17:28   Like I think that that is very possible.

01:17:29   Seems like not now.

01:17:30   I don't think it happens next Wednesday, right?

01:17:32   It's too many new iPhones, I agree.

01:17:33   Gosh, how many phones do you want to introduce in one event?

01:17:36   Like, oh, here's our five new iPhones.

01:17:38   This is already, right?

01:17:40   Like last year was a big deal because they had the, uh, the 8 and the 10, 8, 8 plus and

01:17:45   10.

01:17:46   That was three new phones, right?

01:17:48   Now it's going to be this, you know, it's three new phones again, but it's again,

01:17:53   it's two new models that we'd never seen before.

01:17:56   Last year it was updates to two models and a new phone we hadn't seen before.

01:18:01   So even though it's three new phones, again, it's two brand new models and an update

01:18:05   to an existing model.

01:18:07   This is Apple growing.

01:18:08   And I think in a good way, I think, um, we might've talked about this last week, but

01:18:12   like, I like the idea that Apple realizes one of its weaknesses in the iPhone is that

01:18:16   there's not enough diversity in the iPhone hardware.

01:18:17   I talked about that when I was on, I hosted a twit yesterday, and that was one of the

01:18:21   topics was Android phones have so many different phone makers that there's huge diversity

01:18:25   in the different kinds of phones that are available.

01:18:28   If you want to buy an Android phone and Apple's knock has always been, they only have one

01:18:31   phone or maybe two phones.

01:18:33   And I think Apple is aggressively trying to spread the product line out.

01:18:37   That said, there is only so much they could do at one go.

01:18:41   And if they think the eight is still pretty great, they leave it around.

01:18:44   Maybe they cut the price on it.

01:18:45   They leave it around.

01:18:46   They introduce these three new phones and then they deal with, uh, some more kind of

01:18:51   diversity at the bottom of the line.

01:18:53   Uh, maybe next spring.

01:18:54   Well, another one that I had on my list here was, um, a home pod software update.

01:18:59   I think that's gonna happen.

01:19:02   I just don't think they're necessarily gonna mention it.

01:19:05   Like, I feel like that it is very possible that some of the features that we think could

01:19:11   come to the home pod would occur around now.

01:19:15   Right?

01:19:16   Like things like multiple timers and some of the calendar stuff and personal requests,

01:19:20   right?

01:19:21   Like those things feel like they're going to happen.

01:19:23   They could very well happen, but I don't think they're going to talk about it.

01:19:26   It's a litmus test too for how Apple feels about the home pod.

01:19:29   They got nothing at WWDC, right?

01:19:31   That was one of the picks.

01:19:32   I think there's a, a, uh, I'm talking a lot about the non-zero probability, but I think

01:19:37   it's that like, is the difference between certain and possible and unlikely and not

01:19:41   going to happen.

01:19:42   I think it entirely depends on how people at Inside Apple feel about the home pod and

01:19:46   whether they think that it's a bomb and they need to do a new one next year and regroup

01:19:49   or whether they think that it's still got a lot of possibility.

01:19:54   If I had to bet, I'd probably bet that they think it's got possibility and, and this is

01:19:57   combining some wish casting in here, but if they announced some new home pod features

01:20:01   and a, and a bundle of two, as we've talked about, into a stereo pair set with a more

01:20:06   aggressive price for the holidays and they really are like, we want to sell a lot of

01:20:10   home pods for the holidays, then this would be a great time to do that.

01:20:15   Will they do that?

01:20:16   I don't know.

01:20:17   I think it would be smart if they did.

01:20:18   I think that would be great if they said the home pod is way more capable already because

01:20:22   we did software updates and there's more coming this fall and we're going to let you buy two

01:20:26   because some, you know, you can hear Phil Schiller saying it, right?

01:20:29   Like, and what the feedback we've gotten from our customers is that they love it when they

01:20:32   put two of them together and you get the fill an even larger room and it's a great stereo

01:20:35   sound and so we're going to make that easier for people.

01:20:38   Like there are ways to sell that, that it's also like we need to move these.

01:20:40   We're going to cut the price by if you buy two.

01:20:43   So I think it's entirely possible that they'll do it, but I didn't pick it either, right?

01:20:47   So it's like it seemed a little too risky for me.

01:20:49   And then I have a couple that we can just lump up together, like a new smart keyboard

01:20:55   and new smart connector for the iPad Pro.

01:20:58   Yeah, I had those on my list.

01:20:59   When I was picking my, like, what is my iPad one going to be?

01:21:02   I figured that they're less likely than Face ID.

01:21:06   Yeah, and I think these are all really good choices that if I had more confidence in the

01:21:12   iPad being at the event, I think we would have broken this down and gone to this level

01:21:16   of detail.

01:21:17   Basically, if those 9 to 5 Mac images wouldn't have come out, I would have picked way more

01:21:20   iPad stuff.

01:21:21   Well, the lack of super heavy iPad Pro rumors is out there, right?

01:21:28   Like maybe one of those reasons is that it's not at the event.

01:21:31   It's also true.

01:21:32   I think this is something that I didn't pick, but I totally could have picked.

01:21:35   But again, it's more specific than I needed to be, which is I think if the iPads are at

01:21:39   this event, they're not going to ship the week after the event.

01:21:42   They're going to ship like a month after the event, because I think they can get away with

01:21:45   saying with delaying iPad Pro purchases at the end of their life cycle and say the new

01:21:50   iPads will ship in October or late October or something like that.

01:21:52   I don't think they're going to ship the same time as the iPhones do anyway.

01:21:56   So that may be a reason why the rumors are not quite as strong on them, because they're

01:22:00   not imminent in the way that the iPhones are.

01:22:05   I figured that another thing that I potentially had is a release date for the AirPower case

01:22:10   for AirPods.

01:22:11   Yeah, I almost picked that.

01:22:13   When you picked AirPods, I almost went with that, because I feel like they need to make

01:22:16   good on that, and that may be a part of the AirPower announcement, is that we're also going

01:22:20   to be offering a case for the same day you'll be able to buy a case for your existing AirPods,

01:22:25   whether they have new AirPods or not, because I feel like that's all rolled up together.

01:22:31   They're not going to release that AirPower without releasing the AirPower case that they

01:22:35   previously announced for the AirPods.

01:22:38   And my last one, there will inevitably be an iOS 12 software demo, and Air Force One

01:22:43   will be referenced somewhere in an on-screen image.

01:22:46   Yeah, I put that one in the document as a wacky pick, because often there is a little

01:22:50   Easter egg for something in those things, including Air Force One for Craig Federighi.

01:22:54   That is a laugh line, more WWDC, but they often sneak into the--that would have been

01:23:00   a fun Spinal Tap style pick at the end.

01:23:02   So you know, something that is worth mentioning, I mean it's probably not even worth drilling

01:23:06   down, we had probably somewhere between the range of 10 to 15 items in the Mac specifically

01:23:11   that we could have picked that we just didn't.

01:23:13   You know, like breaking down every single rumor that has happened, you know, so like

01:23:17   new Mac Minis and trying to pontificate on what the MacBook might be and what it might

01:23:21   have and what it might not have, that kind of thing.

01:23:25   And I think we just both made it pretty clear that we just don't think that this is the

01:23:28   time.

01:23:29   Yeah, yeah, I think that's it.

01:23:33   In the chat room they're trying to guess what my theoretical HomePod bundle would be, and

01:23:37   there are a lot of guesses of 549, which is why I'm going to say that it would either

01:23:43   be 599 or 649, because again, it's Apple.

01:23:48   Whatever you think a really nice number would be, it's not that.

01:23:53   599 might be a good bundle.

01:23:56   Do you have any other kind of bring out your dead?

01:23:59   So I, despite a rumor that said it's not going to happen, and this is the Wish casting part,

01:24:06   I still really like the idea that that big iPhone supports the Apple Pencil and that

01:24:10   there's a new Apple Pencil.

01:24:13   And if we get a new iPad Pro, I would especially think we might get a new Apple Pencil.

01:24:17   But somebody, Roger Crowe, I think, said, "Nope, they tried it, they couldn't get it,

01:24:21   they didn't feel it was usable enough, so they're not going to do it."

01:24:24   But like, if ever there was a time to do Apple Pencil support with a new Apple Pencil on

01:24:28   a big iPhone, like all the software is there, I feel like it's now, but that gives me pause.

01:24:35   Can I just ask you real quick, I'm not familiar with Roger Crowe.

01:24:40   Do you mean Ming-Chi-Cwo?

01:24:41   I keep saying Roger, it's Ming-Chi-Cwo.

01:24:43   Who's Roger?

01:24:44   Who's the analyst who's Roger?

01:24:45   I don't know, Roger.

01:24:46   I don't know who Roger is.

01:24:47   Roger get in touch, Roger get in touch.

01:24:48   Let me know who you are, Mr. Rogers maybe?

01:24:51   I don't know.

01:24:52   Ming-Chi-Cwo, who is super reliable, said, "No pencils."

01:24:56   No pencils.

01:24:59   So that's a bummer, that makes me sad.

01:25:03   That makes me sad.

01:25:04   But I am going to believe Ming-Chi-Cwo on that one, but not that that phone is, that

01:25:13   the iPhone X successor is going to cost $899.

01:25:16   I choose not to believe that because I think that Ming-Chi-Cwo's sources are not in, I

01:25:23   think Ming-Chi-Cwo's sources know what the cost of manufacturing is, but that doesn't

01:25:29   mean that Apple's going to follow that pricing.

01:25:32   What he's saying is that they could price it at $899, but will they?

01:25:35   Maybe not.

01:25:36   Maybe they'll price it at $999 anyway, right?

01:25:39   That's more margin for Apple, they like that.

01:25:41   So Apple Pencil Support was at the top of my list.

01:25:43   I also thought about a bunch of other Apple Watch things.

01:25:46   You had one in there that was a new type of health sensor.

01:25:50   That's a classic new sensor on the Apple Watch.

01:25:52   I think we've had that in the draft every year, but we didn't pick it.

01:25:56   I'm not sure what it would be.

01:25:58   New Apple Pencil, I mentioned, just in general in my iPad picks, New Apple Pencil Support

01:26:04   for the Logitech Crayon or a broader release of the Logitech Crayon was another thing I

01:26:08   thought because it's education only or release of an Apple branded device that uses the same

01:26:14   technology, so like a new small pencil.

01:26:18   The existence of the Logitech Crayon is a special design product that's only for education.

01:26:22   It seems super weird to me and I keep thinking that there's more to that story and it's probably

01:26:26   a new Apple Pencil that's smaller, but maybe now is not the time.

01:26:31   I had given the rumors of that weird connector on the back of the iPad Pro, if we go down

01:26:37   that path, I put in Apple Laptop Shell for iPad Pro because that was just my, again,

01:26:45   wacky idea of like, well, maybe this is the year that you're like, you want your iPad

01:26:48   to be a laptop?

01:26:49   We got a whole new case design that will do it for you.

01:26:54   Not that I think that will happen.

01:26:56   I also had no new iPads on my list.

01:26:59   Go the complete other direction, but I didn't go down there.

01:27:03   And then we had a whole bunch of Mac stuff that I only plucked the sub-thousand laptop,

01:27:07   but I had more about the MacBook getting updated, about the Air getting updated after all, despite

01:27:14   all the rumors about the MacBook escape getting renamed and deprofied.

01:27:21   A lot of choices, this may all come back if they do a second event, Myke.

01:27:26   Port choices, does it have USB-A ports?

01:27:29   Does it not have USB-A ports?

01:27:30   Does it have a butterfly keyboard?

01:27:32   Does it not have a butterfly keyboard?

01:27:34   But if we don't believe it's going to exist, why would you get into the details of it?

01:27:38   And then finally, Myke, the two picks that I left, because sometimes those are fun to

01:27:42   pick, but we didn't get to them, Celebrity On Stage and Musical Guest Performs.

01:27:49   They're both always very possible.

01:27:52   We may get those, although they have so much product in the pipeline that I would be very

01:27:56   frustrated if they don't announce iPads and Macs and they have a sit for a musical guest.

01:28:02   But they do like to do that, so I wouldn't say it's impossible.

01:28:06   It won't be you two, though, because Bono lost his voice.

01:28:08   It won't be them.

01:28:09   Good to know.

01:28:10   All right, so that's the draft.

01:28:12   So I'll mention for the last time, there is a scorecard in our show notes.

01:28:16   You can score along with us.

01:28:18   It's something fun.

01:28:19   I always find it's a fun thing to just keep me occupied, especially during the long game

01:28:23   demos to tick off all my scorecard points.

01:28:27   There will be no new episode next Monday, of course.

01:28:30   We're going to be recording and releasing on Wednesday after the Apple event.

01:28:35   You can follow us on Twitter @_upgradefm to know when we'll be broadcasting live.

01:28:41   We don't know what time that's going to be, but if you do want to tune in live, we'll

01:28:44   tweet when we're doing that.

01:28:46   But the episode will be up on Wednesday evening.

01:28:49   There will be a new episode within a few hours, hopefully, of the event having concluded.

01:28:57   I have to look at the products and then drive home.

01:29:00   And then we need to record it and edit it, but it will be out.

01:29:03   So you can look forward to that.

01:29:07   You can also, as well, after the event, send in your hashtag #askupgradequestions so we

01:29:12   can include as many as we can on the show next week.

01:29:15   So if you have questions about the products, you want to know our specific thoughts on

01:29:20   certain things, especially considering Jason will have touched whatever is new, you want

01:29:25   to send in your hashtag #askupgradequestions.

01:29:28   That's a great new slogan for our podcast, Jason will have touched whatever is new.

01:29:32   So send in a hashtag #askupgradequestions to do that and we'd appreciate that.

01:29:37   Jason, what is your coverage going to be like and where can people keep up with it?

01:29:40   Well, you should go to SixColors.com.

01:29:43   We have, we'll embed probably a Twitter embed in there.

01:29:46   I'll tweet a little bit from Six Colors event, which is our sort of live event because I

01:29:52   don't want to clog up the standard Six Colors Twitter account and maybe from my personal

01:29:56   account too.

01:29:57   I'm like, you know, I want to think about it a little bit.

01:30:01   I don't want to do like super heavy coverage.

01:30:02   It's going to be a live video stream.

01:30:05   Some people complain that I spoil things because I announce them when they're happening and

01:30:08   not when they're on the live stream.

01:30:09   So I guess you can't follow along second to second.

01:30:12   It won't matter anymore anyway, because nobody can follow in their third party clients second

01:30:16   to second.

01:30:17   Yeah, that's true.

01:30:18   That's true.

01:30:19   That's very true.

01:30:20   So I'll do I'll do some of that.

01:30:21   But otherwise, I'm just going to sit there and take it in and think about it and do that

01:30:25   sort of thing and so that I'm prepared to do our podcast and write some stories and

01:30:32   all of that about it.

01:30:33   So I'm yeah, I'm looking forward to it.

01:30:35   It is, you know, will I bring my camera to take some pretty pictures?

01:30:39   Maybe, maybe not.

01:30:40   I don't know.

01:30:41   We'll figure it out.

01:30:42   But but yeah, sixcolors.com will have whatever I'm doing.

01:30:45   We're both on Twitter.

01:30:46   I'm @imike.

01:30:47   I M Y K E. Jason is @jsnell.

01:30:50   Thanks again to Squarespace, Pingdom and Away.

01:30:53   But most of all, thank you for listening to the 2018 iPhone event draft.

01:30:58   We'll be back next week with our analysis, thoughts and opinions of what actually was

01:31:04   announced as well as deciding who the winner was of this draft.

01:31:09   Did I screw it up?

01:31:10   Was I a genius?

01:31:11   You'll find out next time.

01:31:12   Until then, say goodbye Jason Snell.

01:31:14   Bye bye everybody.

01:31:15   See you next Wednesday.

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