631: Nessie Beneath the Waves
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From relay, this is Upgrade episode number six.
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Three, one, that's a big number.
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It is brought to you this time by Factor Squarespace and Backblaze.
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I am your regular host, Jason Snell, but I'm reading the introduction, which means
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Mike Hurley is gone on assignment.
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We did an episode out of time last week.
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This week we are doing an episode in time.
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And joining me just in time is our special guest host this week, Dan
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I was ready to be introduced as your irregular co-host.
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Well, you are the first one.
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I don't know.
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I don't want to judge the host, just not on not on this show.
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I don't want to judge you.
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We so we do the Six Colors podcast almost every Friday.
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And if you're you could you have to be a member to do this,
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to become a member of Six Colors, and you get that hear us every
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Uh except for last Friday, where we were both traveling.
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And uh the promise was that we would come on upgrade instead and give
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everybody uh a whole episode of us talking about stuff.
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As the prophecy has foretold, here we are.
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As far as I know, Mike is like in the air right now, and
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if not, he will soon be in the air.
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He's flying home.
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I don't know, maybe a hot air balloon.
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Um, and of course, this is the summer of fun.
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Summer of fun!
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Summer of fun!
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And uh, what's more fun than Apple?
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Financial results, those are coming up later on the show.
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Well, it's fun if you're Apple, I guess.
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I mean, and lucrative.
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Less less fun for us.
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Less fun for others, I suppose that's true.
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Um, so uh we'll let's start with a little bit.
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There's no time for any of this, Jason.
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We don't, because it's time for Snell Talk.
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Do you want to read the Snell Talk question to me?
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I would love to read the Snell Talk question.
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This is from Will.
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Will says, Jason, on Upgrade Plus recently, you recommended a plethora of TV shows.
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By the way, Will, extra credit for the word plethora.
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Plethera of TV shows, and then you also talk about all the books you
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read, both for design in California and for fun, as well as all the
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work for all the various writing and recording you do.
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How do you actually have time to do all of these things?
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I love I love these questions.
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And I'm glad that you got to ask it because part of my answer
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I think is near and dear to your heart, and then I'm gonna turn
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the tables on you.
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Uh like, okay, for for design in California, I am not reading all the
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I because I have a database full of the text of all the books,
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and I can search around and I can find the relevant chapters for the
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story I'm trying to tell.
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But there are books that I do read, and I have to put them
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in my book reading queue.
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But I do read a lot of books.
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So I just finished a book last night on the plane, coming home.
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I love reading books.
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I do read a very large number of books by some people's standards, although
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there are other people we know, Dan, who read way more books than we
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Scott McNulty.
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Um, Fred Kiesh.
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I think he writes reads like a book a day or something.
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It's just wild, these people who read.
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So I I guess I see how people see me when I say I
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wrote read like 80 books.
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Is they're like, how is that possible?
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It's like, well, here's my my Pat answer, but it's true.
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I don't play games.
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I think that that's the real answer is I I listened to my friends
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talk about the games they're playing and the thing.
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Like our our dear friend, Tony Sindalar.
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Was just having a conversation about the new Lego Batman game.
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Uh yes, yes.
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And he said that he 100% did it.
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He did every single thing in it.
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A massive, massive game.
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It's a big game.
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It's a very big game.
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And that was when I at that moment where I was like, yeah, see,
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I like video games.
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Fine, but I am one of those people who it's it's gonna be very
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hard for me to commit to playing a video game for I'm I'm like,
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I'm not gonna play a video game for 30 hours.
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It's just never gonna happen.
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So I really like those, what John Saracusa calls the artsy fartsy games that
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are like five.
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Like I did um Hurdling, which Panic published, which is a journey, it's kind
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of like journey vibes a little bit.
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And it I think it I think it was a total of about five
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Yeah, it's like a it's like it's a little longer than watching a movie.
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It's like a mini-series.
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Yeah, yeah, exactly.
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So that was um uh that was a time commitment I could do.
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I I wouldn't do it regularly.
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I mean, we do we watch, we watch a lot of uh movies and
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TV and I read a lot of books.
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And that I mean that kind of covers it.
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And so it's very hard for me to find time.
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Also, I I really try to prioritize stuff I can do with Lauren when
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it's when she's home and I'm home and it's our entertainment time, and and
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there are games that you can play.
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We I think we just hand it off the controller for hurling, and there's
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some games I was reading about um was it Big Walk that Panic it's
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from the people who did Untitled Goose Game.
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There was just a report, a uh review of it this morning, I think
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in the merch because I sent it to my wife saying this could be
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our next game.
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Yeah, and I looked at that and I thought, well, that even though it's
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a very long, open-ended game, it's a co-op game.
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And that's part for me, that's part of it too, is a um it
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is stuff like we can do together.
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Like we played Journey together and it was the same thing.
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We like with Hurtling, we just handed the controller back and forth for various
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So I only I watched half the levels and played half the levels, but
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it was great.
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Um so I I I don't know how my so my turning the tables
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question is how do you find time to do all the stuff you do
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and play games and you've got a little kid?
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How is it possible?
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See, I'm taking Will's side here now.
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Oh, how the turntables have turned.
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Um I don't play that many games.
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I think I view games as kind of fungible with uh like TV for
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me, in terms of a thing that I often do, like when I'm yeah,
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like there's TV shows I watch with my wife, and there's TV shows I
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watch by myself because she's not interested.
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And there's games that I play with my wife, and then there's games I
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play by myself because she's not interested.
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Like you, I really enjoy doing co-op games with my wife.
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We played Baldur's Gate 3.
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We put in like 120 hours on that game.
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And that's because for like several months, it was our largely instead of watching
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Like we put our kid to bed, we have like an hour, maybe two
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to like stay up before we go to bed, and that was like what
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You know, we sit down and we play the game for a couple hours,
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and we worked our way through the entire game.
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It was super fun.
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But I also it was interesting.
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I was having this conversation with some of the people that we were hanging
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out with on vacation last week, because a lot of them are married couples,
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a little bit younger than some of them have kids, some of them don't.
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And so we were discussing that, and it it there's a lot of people
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who are like, you know, my partner is not interested in playing in playing
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video games.
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Um, and so that's a thing that I do by myself.
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Uh, and I think it really just depends on on what people are interested
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I I don't play that many games.
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I've been playing the there was a recent uh James Bond game called First
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Light, which I've played a bunch of, but haven't finished, and it's just because
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I got busy and I just don't have that much time to like spend
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I I like break it up.
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Like I do like hour chunks here and there.
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I don't sit down and play a 30-hour game, you know, in 30 hours.
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That would be that would be real bad.
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Yeah, don't do that.
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Um, but like before that, I was playing um Ghost of Yote, which is
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a sequel to like a samurai game on the PS5, and it's a very
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long game, and I was like picking away at it.
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I played it for months, and then I just got like to a point
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of being, I'm just tired and I need something else, and then I've started
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playing the James Bond game.
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It's like, I'll go back to it at some point.
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But I had put so much time into it because I I feel like
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I get like Tony, get very detail-oriented, like I'm gonna check off all these
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But yeah, it's a thing I do instead of watching TV.
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If like my wife is just, you know, I'm gonna watch this show that
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I'm into, or she's doing some work or something like that.
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That'll be my like I'll burn an hour playing this game.
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But I don't read nearly as many books as you do, so I probably
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read about half as many books as you do.
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So you write more books than I do, though.
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So that's I probably do, yes.
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I will also say, you know, we do podcasts here in the evenings, and
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so Lauren watches a bunch of stuff that I don't watch because she's got
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shows she she has as her, like when I'm in here doing a podcast,
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she's yeah, she's watching that show.
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But there's so much good TV on, it's also very hard to like I
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I feel like we have an enormous backlog of um good TV shows right
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That is the biggest challenge too, because my wife gets very like she's she
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runs hot and cold on like shows.
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She'll get really into it and we'll do nothing but like binge a show
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for and then still taper off.
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So like we still have the last half of last season of silo.
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Yeah, and I'm just like, we should just finish this because the new season's
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We just blasted through the whole season of silo because we I got the
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have the screeners, and that was like yeah, that picked up speed as it
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went, where we were like watching one every day.
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But like we finally last night, again, after a week of vacation, so we
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were hanging out with people and stuff.
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We weren't really watching TV.
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We finally watched the season opener of Strange New Worlds last night.
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Which is like a week and a half old.
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My God, a Star Trek show I haven't watched in like a week and
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This is wild.
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I mean, there's just we do live in a in a world where there
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is uh there is there are so many entertainment options and there's only so
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much time in the day.
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And oh the other thing I was gonna say to Will is the other
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my other big time hole is that I'm a sports fan.
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Yeah, and so I don't have that.
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I escape on that front.
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Yeah, and and like the Giants are having a terrible year this year, but
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like when the Giants are having a good year, you know, a baseball game
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is like three hours long, two and a half hours long.
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And if I want to sit down, and I enjoy sitting down and watching
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a baseball game, but you know, that blows a hole in your evening right
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Like that's what you're doing that evening.
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You're not reading a book, you're not watching a TV show, you're watching a
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baseball game for the whole time.
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The Red Sox were having a real bad season, and then they turned it
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around, yeah.
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Something happened.
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Yeah, that didn't happen.
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The Giants are just trading all their players and they're done.
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But um, and I have not as a I mean, the funny thing is
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it's actually kind of optimal in a way, where back in 2021, the Giants
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won like 107 games, and like that was such an entertaining season, and we
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watched so many games that year because it was so entertaining.
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The good news is when the product is bad, you get your time back.
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Yeah, don't watch.
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So it's kind of nice.
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We watched a bunch of World Cup games, as I know you did.
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So that was also like a time limit.
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And we did the Olympics earlier this year too.
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So like it's got like there's time limited events too sometimes that come up,
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and yeah, that that eats a whole lot.
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Sports is sports can really be, you know, and I'm a college football fan
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in the fall and and uh there and the baseball playoffs, I'll absolutely but
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I mean the baseball playoffs really do kind of capture us for a month
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where it's it's a lot less likely to watch stuff and the World Cup
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was a lot of fun.
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Um being a uh Premier League fan in the US is actually nice because
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it's all like on weekend mornings so it doesn't interfere with the rest of
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my life but um but yeah that's so that that eats up time too.
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So there's lots of places it goes.
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Um but I feel like the one that is a thing that I theoretically
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would like to do but I I never do is play video games because
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I I have I have bought so many video games and consoles and things
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over the years and yet I never use even like four percent of oh
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yeah I still have a I have a switch too that I got for
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Christmas and I haven't played it in months because I just again there's just
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no time like there's other stuff.
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Yeah I have a switch too and I I've actually bought a couple of
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games for us to play on the Switch too and we still haven't played
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them yet but maybe sometime I don't know uh well thank you Will for
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your question and if you want to uh go to upgradefeedback.com and leave a
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snow talk question of course you can do that too um by just going
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to the website I just mentioned that's how that works it's the internet come
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on I remember the first time I saw a URL on a billboard it
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was in the 90s driving up one on one in San Francisco the place
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where it's all like the mind blowing AI billboards now.
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And somebody I don't even remember what it was but somebody had a like
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a maybe it was like Yahoo or something but it was like somebody had
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a URL on a billboard and I was like what is happening and now
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now it's like QR QR codes on billboards.
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Yeah well not and it's also like literally would you like this completely basic
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Go to a website.
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Like like there's no no talking to people there's no phone numbers anymore and
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there's nothing it's just or it's scan this QR code.
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Would you like to order food at this airport restaurant?
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Scan the QR code.
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I drove from Boston to Delaware last week.
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And when you are driving through New Jersey, like the New York, New Jersey
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area, Connecticut too, there is a the genre of like legal injury billboard is
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That's the one thing about the weird AI billboards in the Bay Area, especially
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in San Francisco and down the Silicon Valley, like the 101 corridor.
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The nice thing about it is it is a real break from the law
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It's yeah, real breaks.
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We have all these weird um electronic billboards in the East Bay.
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When I'm driving to Oakland, which I do pretty frequently, um we have all
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these electronic billboards.
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They're, you know, they they rotate.
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They're there's giant screens.
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And um sometimes they get like all fancy and they're like, oh, we like
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we're the official law firm of the Giants.
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Here's the Giants score, or we're the official law firm of the 49ers, here's
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►
the 49ers score, which is fun that they can do that when the game
00:13:19
◼
►
is going on.
00:13:20
◼
►
Although I did see a billboard the other day that was for somebody who
00:13:24
◼
►
was uh it was it was like Bay Area get excited, the World Cup
00:13:28
◼
►
is coming to the Bay Area, and it said it's coming in minus 38
00:13:33
◼
►
Someone, someone no one was ready to release that billboard, I guess.
00:13:37
◼
►
And I I keep thinking, what was the catastrophic chain of events that led
00:13:40
◼
►
to that that screen being shown?
00:13:42
◼
►
And I kind of feel like it was like underneath a layer of a
00:13:44
◼
►
bunch of other stuff that timed out.
00:13:46
◼
►
And so it was and it ended up being visible when obviously nobody ever
00:13:50
◼
►
intended to be visible two months after the World Cup.
00:13:53
◼
►
I I also just really have to share this.
00:13:55
◼
►
This is not from this most recent trip, but I think last year's trip,
00:13:58
◼
►
um, some gu, some lawyer got Christopher McDonald to be on his billboard, which
00:14:06
◼
►
a mute in like Connecticut or something.
00:14:08
◼
►
Oh, doing another like I have Hillmore.
00:14:10
◼
►
Yes, and I kept passing all of these billboards.
00:14:13
◼
►
I'm like, I hope he got paid real well.
00:14:16
◼
►
I bet he did.
00:14:17
◼
►
Or it's his need.
00:14:14
◼
►
Also, the absurdity.
00:14:20
◼
►
Yeah, the absurdity of Christopher McDonald is like, yeah, sure, I'll do a billboard
00:14:24
◼
►
I mean, this is funny.
00:14:25
◼
►
This is all people.
00:14:27
◼
►
I I since I love the show hacks, I want to see him on
00:14:29
◼
►
a casino billboard.
00:14:30
◼
►
That's what I want.
00:14:31
◼
►
I'm you know what?
00:14:32
◼
►
It can be a good one.
00:14:33
◼
►
Or Christoph McDonald's place where you can see it anywhere.
00:14:35
◼
►
Also, he was on um Star Trek, and nobody should forget that.
00:14:38
◼
►
He's he usually plays a CAD, but he was actually a sweet guy on
00:14:41
◼
►
that next generation episode.
00:14:43
◼
►
All right, let's move on to a little bit of follow-up.
00:14:45
◼
►
Just a little bit.
00:14:46
◼
►
This is uh the segment, Dan, when when uh you don't have to take
00:14:49
◼
►
any of the blame because you weren't here when we did this.
00:14:51
◼
►
Yeah, I didn't do nothing.
00:14:52
◼
►
Uh Dave wrote in.
00:14:53
◼
►
Um we were talking about the iPhone upgrade program, which we're gonna talk about
00:14:56
◼
►
on this show.
00:14:57
◼
►
Oh boy, are we?
00:14:58
◼
►
Um, because I got somebody here who's in the program.
00:15:02
◼
►
So uh we'll get to that.
00:15:03
◼
►
But Dave wrote in and said, I have great news for the guy.
00:15:06
◼
►
We had a we had a person who wrote in who's using Mint Mobile
00:15:09
◼
►
but thinks he can't join the iPhone upgrade format program.
00:15:12
◼
►
Now the bad news is the iPhone upgrade program can no longer be joined.
00:15:15
◼
►
But the good news is that Dave uses Mint and is on the upgrade
00:15:20
◼
►
Uh, and now literally, Dave points out on this upgrade program as well, by
00:15:24
◼
►
picking a T-Mobile phone because uh Mint is owned by T Mobile and is
00:15:28
◼
►
an MVNO T Mobile, and it may be that that's the case.
00:15:31
◼
►
This is not news you can use though, unfortunately, because the upgrade program is
00:15:38
◼
►
being discontinued, and we will talk about that in a little bit, because there's
00:15:43
◼
►
things happening there, and I think Dan has feelings about it.
00:15:46
◼
►
But before we do that, I would like to tell you about our first
00:15:49
◼
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This episode of Upgrade is brought to you by Factor.
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The summer of fun is in full swing.
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Now, I I uh when I get factor meals here, my wife steals them
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and takes them to work with her, which is great because uh she works
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at an office.
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I have a whole kitchen to uh, you know, to use any day, but
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she doesn't.
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So uh she steals them and uh we bought them for my mom too
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because we were worried about her nutrition.
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She was uh didn't really want to cook for herself, and so we bought
00:17:12
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her a bunch of factor meals.
00:17:14
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Um, and they're just they couldn't be easier, and I think there's no better
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endorsement than the fact that my wife steals my factor meals from me.
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Um, because there's a lot of stuff we get for podcasts where she's like,
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whatever, you and your podcast, but not the factor meals.
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She steals them.
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00:17:52
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Thank you to Factor for supporting upgrade and all of relay.
00:17:57
◼
►
Rumor Roundup time, Dan.
00:18:03
◼
►
Mark German, the sheriff of Rumortown is back with more.
00:18:08
◼
►
We had two weeks of Mark German.
00:18:10
◼
►
So that's good because we were pretty light.
00:18:15
◼
►
Yeah, it was.
00:18:16
◼
►
This week was pretty pretty light.
00:18:17
◼
►
But last week, I so he he actually reported last week about the kind
00:18:23
◼
►
of onslaught of home tech.
00:18:25
◼
►
He's sort of resetting, he's reported a lot of this before, but kind of
00:18:28
◼
►
resetting what's going to happen this fall and maybe into early next year.
00:18:31
◼
►
He says the much, much rumored by him home pod with a screenslash home
00:18:37
◼
►
controller tablet product, whatever it is.
00:18:39
◼
►
I've seen some people call it the home pad.
00:18:41
◼
►
I don't know what they're gonna call it.
00:18:44
◼
►
Uh could be coming this fall alongside a new Apple TV 4K and HomePod
00:18:49
◼
►
The idea being that they will all be upgraded so that they work with
00:18:53
◼
►
some version of Siri AI.
00:18:56
◼
►
Um set to release, he says the Apple TV and Home Pod Mini this
00:19:00
◼
►
fall for sure, and the home hub between October and early next year.
00:19:05
◼
►
And of course, he's reported previously that the John Turnis uh era is fitting
00:19:10
◼
►
for all of this because John Turnis is one of the people who sort
00:19:13
◼
►
of like championed Apple pushing into the smart home.
00:19:17
◼
►
So it we may be we may finally be there.
00:19:19
◼
►
I I actually keep picturing in my mind the idea of like a like
00:19:22
◼
►
a home event almost in October where they roll out their home strategy.
00:19:26
◼
►
Because it feels like they've got a lot of the pieces here.
00:19:28
◼
►
They just have failed to put it together.
00:19:31
◼
►
I wonder if they will so if they release a new home pod mini
00:19:34
◼
►
and Apple TV and like kind of an event and like you know that
00:19:37
◼
►
in itself is maybe you know a little sparse but I wonder if they
00:19:41
◼
►
would tease this you know home pad or something there as well.
00:19:45
◼
►
Oh like you know well they do that sometimes right they especially things that
00:19:49
◼
►
require some developer buy-in it might be like hey and next you know month
00:19:53
◼
►
to early spring we're gonna ship this product that has a screen I think
00:19:59
◼
►
there's an argument there that it might be a case where they pre-announce something
00:20:02
◼
►
to give a little more critical mass to this whole genre yeah um and
00:20:07
◼
►
say like look it's not just the home pod mini in the Apple TV
00:20:10
◼
►
look that's fine and there's no new those are big yeah that's not a
00:20:13
◼
►
big tent pole product that's with the screen that's a big deal especially if
00:20:17
◼
►
I I'm very curious to see what the Siri AI integration is going to
00:20:21
◼
►
be because we have a couple models right now in terms of things like
00:20:26
◼
►
you know uh the phone versus right the watch does it run on the
00:20:30
◼
►
watch or is it only run like sort of on the watch.
00:20:33
◼
►
I mean it's it's it's leaning hard on the iPhone that's attached to the
00:20:37
◼
►
iPhone yeah so so there's a couple different possibilities right I can see something
00:20:41
◼
►
like a home pod mini following that same chart like because it doesn't have
00:20:45
◼
►
the horsepower like even if they upgrade the chip in it it's not gonna
00:20:48
◼
►
be it's not gonna be a brand new chip for reasons.
00:20:52
◼
►
And so you're gonna need to sort of offload some of that computing.
00:20:55
◼
►
But fundamentally the challenge is that you have these devices right now that are
00:20:59
◼
►
supposed to be entry points into your smart home and they're not very smart.
00:21:03
◼
►
And if you start like in September, you know, people start getting uh Siri
00:21:07
◼
►
AI on their phones, and then they go to their home pod and they're
00:21:10
◼
►
like, why is this thing so dumb?
00:21:12
◼
►
And that's a frustrating experience because you have to remember which Siri you're talking
00:21:17
◼
►
And if you get used to this, oh, there's all these great new features
00:21:19
◼
►
that Siri AI can do and all this stuff it can do.
00:21:22
◼
►
And if your home pod mini is still key, I found some web results
00:21:25
◼
►
Look at them on your iPhone, you're gonna be annoyed.
00:21:28
◼
►
Yeah, it is the I think we called this a couple years ago when
00:21:31
◼
►
we thought there would be Apple Intelligence and there wasn't really.
00:21:34
◼
►
Um, it was like Siri fragmentation, the idea that you've got smart Siri in
00:21:39
◼
►
some places and dumb Siri in other places.
00:21:40
◼
►
And I what I want to say is you can't do that.
00:21:42
◼
►
Now they can do it.
00:21:44
◼
►
Yeah, it's it's unavoidable because everybody's own who owns a home pod mini, you're
00:21:47
◼
►
probably not getting sorry, your your Siri stays dumb, probably.
00:21:51
◼
►
Yeah, I mean, I I I wish that they could do something as simple
00:21:54
◼
►
as a I mean, a simple, okay, I'm overstating it, but like a software
00:21:57
◼
►
update that basically says don't if there's a if there's a Siri AI capable
00:22:00
◼
►
device around, don't answer the question on the home pod.
00:22:03
◼
►
Like just don't do it.
00:22:05
◼
►
But I'm not sure that they can even do that.
00:22:06
◼
►
I don't think so.
00:22:07
◼
►
And it's a way to sell new home pods or whatever.
00:22:09
◼
►
I wonder about the Apple TV 4K, just because one of the advantages of
00:22:13
◼
►
having a product like that, they already use it as the home hub for
00:22:16
◼
►
automation and thread and or matter and whatever else they're doing there.
00:22:19
◼
►
There's a lot of stuff that you can you can rely on an Apple
00:22:23
◼
►
I wonder if it if you've got devices that are incapable of doing Siri
00:22:27
◼
►
AI, I wonder if they bulk up the Apple TV 4K so that it
00:22:32
◼
►
is so that your other home devices don't necessarily have to go to your
00:22:38
◼
►
They could go to your Apple TV, or maybe this new this new screen,
00:22:43
◼
►
this this new home pad or whatever you want to call it, that might
00:22:46
◼
►
also be another way to be one of those kind of controllers because you
00:22:50
◼
►
want to have the problem with having everything go to your your phone is
00:22:54
◼
►
first off, different people have different phones and they will have different capabilities.
00:22:57
◼
►
And second, sometimes you those people leave.
00:23:01
◼
►
I have this problem with you know, my wife and I have you both
00:23:03
◼
►
use the home pod mini, and you know, uh sometimes it doesn't recognize one
00:23:08
◼
►
of the other and it tells you like, oh, you have to go re-authenticate.
00:23:11
◼
►
Tell us once again that who you are.
00:23:13
◼
►
Um and I think the Apple TV thing is really interesting too because one
00:23:18
◼
►
of the other so we saw that price increase for it.
00:23:21
◼
►
And a lot of people speculated this is to sort of, you know, adjust
00:23:26
◼
►
people before a new Apple TV comes out.
00:23:29
◼
►
And one of the ways they could justify that price tag if they felt
00:23:32
◼
►
like they had to was okay, now it's got Siri AI and it does
00:23:35
◼
►
all this other ancillary stuff too.
00:23:37
◼
►
It also helps compensate for the fact that uh TV OS27 basically did not
00:23:42
◼
►
get any new features, right?
00:23:44
◼
►
Nothing, nothing really of note this year.
00:23:47
◼
►
And so that could help bulk up that product because the people who have
00:23:50
◼
►
an Apple TV are gonna be like, I it's barely worth it to upgrade
00:23:54
◼
►
the software, much less buy a new box at this point.
00:23:57
◼
►
So yeah, if you want to sell some more Apple TVs and some home
00:24:00
◼
►
pod minis, then you need to make them do something that they don't already
00:24:04
◼
►
The AI enabled stuff might be a way to do that.
00:24:07
◼
►
I do wonder, I I mean, German said that the this homepad for lack
00:24:12
◼
►
of a better word, uh, is is gonna have some facial recognition so you
00:24:15
◼
►
or or voice recognition features so that you're gonna be able to, you know,
00:24:19
◼
►
the way he puts it, it might be plausibly more of a multi-user product,
00:24:25
◼
►
which is good, right?
00:24:26
◼
►
Like they they've done some steps in this way where where it's like voice
00:24:29
◼
►
recognition and things like that.
00:24:30
◼
►
But like really, if you're in a house and you have personal information from
00:24:34
◼
►
various people, knowing which data source to access on a query, knowing which phone
00:24:41
◼
►
to look at, whatever it is, would make the product better.
00:24:44
◼
►
And it makes me think that maybe that product is also smarter than a
00:24:51
◼
►
And if that's the case, then maybe you know it's an alternative.
00:24:55
◼
►
You don't want an Apple TV, this thing will also be your hub.
00:24:58
◼
►
And I, you know, there's a lot of skepticism about that about this product.
00:25:03
◼
►
And um, like when I'm on MacBreak Weekly, I definitely get there's a lot
00:25:06
◼
►
of people are like, why do you even need well?
00:25:08
◼
►
Why does there need to be another home pod?
00:25:09
◼
►
And it's like I first off, having had an Echo Show and a Google
00:25:14
◼
►
Nest home, whatever, the bar is on is not even, there's no bar.
00:25:18
◼
►
Those products are so terrible.
00:25:20
◼
►
Uh, David Pogue wrote a piece today on his Substack about how bad Alexa
00:25:24
◼
►
Plus is, by the way, that's hilarious, where he had to do all the
00:25:26
◼
►
things that Amazon says you should try, and they it failed at all, but
00:25:30
◼
►
like four of them.
00:25:31
◼
►
It's uh just amazing.
00:25:32
◼
►
And we'll see how Siri AI does with that too.
00:25:34
◼
►
But my point is that these other products with screens that let you do
00:25:38
◼
►
theoretically voice control and show some widgets and let you control things in your
00:25:41
◼
►
home, they're not in the Apple ecosystem and they're bad.
00:25:44
◼
►
So there's a real ripe opportunity there for people to have, even if it's
00:25:49
◼
►
just like pretty basic, like show me my photos and turn on these lights
00:25:54
◼
►
or adjust the thermostat or whatever.
00:25:56
◼
►
Like it the bar is super low.
00:25:58
◼
►
I see this whole category of products now, you know, kind of like the
00:26:02
◼
►
terminal and things like that, where it's like, hey, here's your calendar and it's
00:26:05
◼
►
on your fridge or whatever.
00:26:06
◼
►
You know, here's some photos.
00:26:08
◼
►
I just saw another one today.
00:26:10
◼
►
Um Skylight, I think is one.
00:26:13
◼
►
Anyways, it's the idea of having a screen that shows stuff that's like visual
00:26:16
◼
►
information that people in your household need to like refer to.
00:26:19
◼
►
And it's maybe a smaller market, but it is a market.
00:26:22
◼
►
There are all these products that have cropped up to do this kind of
00:26:26
◼
►
And the the advantage of Apple doing it itself is it lowers the barrier
00:26:31
◼
►
to entry, right?
00:26:29
◼
►
A lot of those products are like setting it up is going to be
00:26:34
◼
►
kind of technical.
00:26:29
◼
►
You're gonna have to jump through some hoops, et cetera.
00:26:36
◼
►
Whereas if Apple approaches it with its usual Apple system, it's like you know,
00:26:41
◼
►
you you plug it in, you wave your phone near it or something, and
00:26:45
◼
►
you're basically done, probably.
00:26:46
◼
►
So I I think there's a lot there.
00:26:48
◼
►
And I think, you know, the promise of all those screen-based systems were high.
00:26:53
◼
►
I mean, when I first got I got an echo show, I think the
00:26:55
◼
►
very first one, and you know, simple things like I can see all the
00:26:58
◼
►
timers I've set, you know, that is legit useful because that was one of
00:27:02
◼
►
the places that these voice assistants were really good, but it was frustrating to
00:27:06
◼
►
like, oh, it would be really nice if I could see all these things.
00:27:09
◼
►
Um, and so I think you know, the place they aired is in I
00:27:12
◼
►
think taking them too far out of what was useful.
00:27:15
◼
►
It's like, oh, now you're gonna watch YouTube videos while you cook dinner.
00:27:19
◼
►
I was like, only if I don't want to keep my fingers because I'm
00:27:23
◼
►
cutting something off if I'm paying attention to a video while I'm cutting vegetables.
00:27:27
◼
►
Yeah, it's I mean, people do have like TVs in their kitchen and stuff,
00:27:30
◼
►
but I never really got the appeal of that.
00:27:32
◼
►
No, it's it I I can't wait.
00:27:33
◼
►
I I mean we we've talked before about how um all of those mysterious
00:27:39
◼
►
upgrades to video cameras in home kit secure video seem to suggest that Apple
00:27:43
◼
►
suddenly cares about video cameras, which seems to suggest Apple's gonna make a video
00:27:47
◼
►
And German has said he's he's squirrely about it.
00:27:50
◼
►
He said, I think that his latest report was an indoor video camera, which
00:27:55
◼
►
I am much less interested in than an outdoor video camera, but also a
00:27:59
◼
►
doorbell like a ring-like thing, which is that's your outdoor something.
00:28:03
◼
►
I don't, I don't my house is so small, I do not need a
00:28:05
◼
►
doorbell, but I do have a video camera outside.
00:28:08
◼
►
I have the Accara, which is home Kit Secure Video, and it has benefited
00:28:11
◼
►
greatly from the new features.
00:28:12
◼
►
So that, yeah, I I really want an event.
00:28:14
◼
►
Look, Apple events are about storytelling.
00:28:14
◼
►
Otherwise, you just do a press release.
00:28:19
◼
►
Storytelling is part of the reason you do a whole event, and Apple will
00:28:23
◼
►
invite people somewhere and they'll have like press demos and they will have a
00:28:26
◼
►
video and they will be able to tell their story.
00:28:29
◼
►
And if they have a new home strategy and it includes some products that
00:28:33
◼
►
that don't exist yet, which means you can't you can't use the, you know,
00:28:37
◼
►
uh suppress sales of the existing ones because they don't exist to lay out
00:28:41
◼
►
their whole strategy and say, we're doing these now, and coming later this year,
00:28:44
◼
►
we'll have these other products and and have a more expansive view of Apple's
00:28:49
◼
►
home strategy.
00:28:50
◼
►
Like I want to hear them, if they're gonna do this, they need to
00:28:52
◼
►
tell that story.
00:28:53
◼
►
And I I hope they do it.
00:28:55
◼
►
To your earlier point about John Turnus being a good tie-in for that, it's
00:28:59
◼
►
also a good opportunity for him to put his stamp on something, right?
00:29:02
◼
►
Like to say, okay, here's an event, you know, would would Tim have done
00:29:07
◼
►
But like it feels fresh and new when it's a different CEO coming out
00:29:11
◼
►
and being like, hey, I've got this exciting new initiative to tell you all
00:29:14
◼
►
about, right?
00:29:14
◼
►
Like that's a good moment for you as a CEO in the early days
00:29:18
◼
►
of your leadership, is to be able to come out and say, here's a
00:29:21
◼
►
bunch of new products.
00:29:22
◼
►
And you're like, whoa, this guy.
00:29:24
◼
►
Yeah, clearly, he built all these products himself in the last two months.
00:29:28
◼
►
Yeah, he's that he's just a busy guy.
00:29:29
◼
►
He's just doing doing he's killing it.
00:29:32
◼
►
All right, well, we will keep an eye on that.
00:29:35
◼
►
Let's talk about the uh Apple upgrade program, which Apple has announced.
00:29:40
◼
►
It is a new Apple upgrade program.
00:29:42
◼
►
It is not to be confused with this, the original upgrade program that you're
00:29:47
◼
►
listening to right now.
00:29:48
◼
►
It replaces the existing iPhone upgrade program with one that covers not just the
00:29:52
◼
►
iPhone, but the Mac, the iPad, the Apple Watch.
00:29:55
◼
►
Turns it from a loan into a lease.
00:29:58
◼
►
You have been an iPhone upgrade program user for many, many years.
00:30:03
◼
►
Since the beginning, I think.
00:29:59
◼
►
I think I was there first year.
00:30:05
◼
►
So you wrote a piece on six colors about like all your concerns about
00:30:08
◼
►
what it might be.
00:30:09
◼
►
Now that we know what Apple's doing here, this is a deal with Klarna,
00:30:14
◼
►
although it's really kind of branded as Apple.
00:30:16
◼
►
And the idea is that you are going to choose a length and you
00:30:20
◼
►
get an amount to pay, and then at the end, you either turn in
00:30:23
◼
►
the device or you buy out the rest of the lease.
00:30:27
◼
►
Um, what are you thinking now, especially about I mean, we it goes beyond
00:30:32
◼
►
the iPhone and we should talk about that, but let's start with just sort
00:30:35
◼
►
of compared to the product that they were selling, which was the iPhone upgrade
00:30:39
◼
►
program that you've been on and that is now going to be ending next
00:30:44
◼
►
How you know what what strikes you about what's different about Apple's approach here?
00:30:49
◼
►
Yeah, I mean, look, there's a few things here, right?
00:30:51
◼
►
There's the mechanics of it, and then there's some stuff that's more vibe-based.
00:30:55
◼
►
I think if you sit down and look at the numbers, the numbers are
00:30:59
◼
►
Um, you know, you you look at the the I looked at my uh
00:31:03
◼
►
iPhone, I've got a 17 Pro, it's just the base level 256.
00:31:08
◼
►
For the last year on the iPhone upgrade program, I've been paying, I think
00:31:10
◼
►
$57 a month, which is, you know, it's divided by 24 or whatever.
00:31:16
◼
►
But you can upgrade after 12.
00:31:18
◼
►
Under the new program, if I go and look at like, okay, I want
00:31:20
◼
►
to buy the same exact phone I've got now, how much is it gonna
00:31:23
◼
►
cost me to lease that?
00:31:25
◼
►
It's a little bit cheaper.
00:31:27
◼
►
It's like uh, I want to say 40, $40 dollars or so for a
00:31:31
◼
►
12-year lease.
00:31:32
◼
►
This is one of the, or a 12 um month lease.
00:31:35
◼
►
This is one of the interesting facts is like nominally the price you're paying
00:31:39
◼
►
over the course of time is divided up into like 24 payments, I think.
00:31:43
◼
►
But if in a 12-month lease, you're still only paying only part of the
00:31:44
◼
►
value of the phone, essentially.
00:31:49
◼
►
Um $46 is the 12-month lease now through the Apple upgrade program.
00:31:55
◼
►
Now that's cheaper, but in large part that's because the previous iPhone upgrade program
00:32:00
◼
►
bundled Apple Care with it.
00:32:01
◼
►
So for that $57, I was paying $11 more per month, but I got
00:32:05
◼
►
Apple Care Plus, I believe, with theft and loss.
00:32:08
◼
►
That's now they also Apple tweaked the prices of Apple Care stuff.
00:32:12
◼
►
So that's now $14.
00:32:14
◼
►
So if you wanted to get Apple Care on top of that, setting aside
00:32:18
◼
►
one thing I'll talk about in a second, then you're gonna pay more.
00:32:21
◼
►
Not a lot more, but a little more.
00:32:23
◼
►
Um obviously there's also Apple Care One, which they introduced uh late last year,
00:32:28
◼
►
early this year, um, which essentially is your monthly thing that covers several different
00:32:34
◼
►
So you could, if you have multiple Apple devices, maybe you would save some
00:32:38
◼
►
money if you have Apple Care in all of them.
00:32:40
◼
►
Uh like many people, I think including you, I do not tend to be
00:32:44
◼
►
an Apple career subscriber.
00:32:45
◼
►
I got it with the phone, which was nice.
00:32:48
◼
►
I don't think I have ever used it in the decade, right?
00:32:50
◼
►
This is insurance.
00:32:51
◼
►
This is what happens.
00:32:52
◼
►
I paid uh for that because I did not really have a choice to
00:32:55
◼
►
not pay for it, and I never used it.
00:32:57
◼
►
Um so yeah, I could save money on this plan.
00:33:00
◼
►
That would be nice.
00:33:01
◼
►
Um, but now we enter into a couple other things that I think are
00:33:06
◼
►
The upgrade path is a question.
00:33:08
◼
►
I mean, so they say you can upgrade at the end of your term
00:33:10
◼
►
of your month, the term of your uh lease.
00:33:13
◼
►
So that's 12 months for this particular one.
00:33:15
◼
►
Um you can upgrade sooner with a fee.
00:33:18
◼
►
There is like on the current system, which is a loan, not a lease,
00:33:22
◼
►
you can sort of buy out your loan.
00:33:24
◼
►
Um there's questions of what are the additional fees.
00:33:27
◼
►
I poked around a little bit to see if I could find the you
00:33:29
◼
►
know nitty-gritty details of this.
00:33:33
◼
►
And I had not been able to find like a place that just laid
00:33:36
◼
►
all out all of the like here is the terms of the Apple upgrade
00:33:39
◼
►
I'm sure it's in there, but you might have to go further down the
00:33:42
◼
►
process to get there.
00:33:43
◼
►
And so that is kind of one question for me is there are a
00:33:46
◼
►
couple places that allude to fees that you might have to play pay if
00:33:50
◼
►
you want to do things like terminate your lease early.
00:33:53
◼
►
Um that is a question to me.
00:33:55
◼
►
And as always, with these kinds of programs, you always kind of wonder, well,
00:34:00
◼
►
how are the people making their money, right?
00:34:03
◼
►
Um that was always a question with, you know, in the case of the
00:34:07
◼
►
uh the previous iPhone upgrade program, this was a loan underwritten by Citizens Bank.
00:34:12
◼
►
Um, and you essentially like, you know, they lent you money to buy a
00:34:17
◼
►
phone, but it was your phone.
00:34:18
◼
►
In this case, you are essentially renting a phone.
00:34:21
◼
►
It may be to a certain degree a distinction difference, but I think there
00:34:24
◼
►
is slightly something there because you are more, I think, beholden to the terms
00:34:28
◼
►
of this deal potentially.
00:34:30
◼
►
And I think this is where the question of Clarna comes in because I
00:34:33
◼
►
think this is this is more of a vibes thing.
00:34:35
◼
►
It's like, I don't associate anything great with Claren.
00:34:38
◼
►
Mainly because one of the things they're known for are those buy now pay
00:34:41
◼
►
later ideas, right?
00:34:42
◼
►
Where it's like you pay something and sort of finance it over the short
00:34:45
◼
►
And in theory, it's all cheap.
00:34:46
◼
►
It's a zero interest loan, but you got to read the fine print.
00:34:49
◼
►
And if you miss plans or mispayments, you potentially rack up some costs.
00:34:54
◼
►
So I think I have some questions about that before I would sort of
00:34:58
◼
►
step in and immediately be like, okay, this is a great substitute.
00:35:01
◼
►
Um I I think Apple is still working hard to try and make sure
00:35:06
◼
►
that they're uh the Apple brand promise is still delivered by this.
00:35:11
◼
►
But it's tricky because there is a different partner.
00:35:15
◼
►
And I think the thing about citizens having like a bank involved was like,
00:35:14
◼
►
well, it's a bank, you know.
00:35:20
◼
►
Like I don't need to be like, how does the bank make its money?
00:35:23
◼
►
I know how the banks make their money.
00:35:25
◼
►
And I felt like in that case, the loan was very well managed.
00:35:29
◼
►
I never really had a problem with any of them.
00:35:31
◼
►
You know, I had some problems like mechanically with the upgrade program.
00:35:34
◼
►
Every once in a while you'd run into something weird where it's like, hey,
00:35:37
◼
►
you didn't ship your phone back to us.
00:35:38
◼
►
And I was like, yes, I did.
00:35:40
◼
►
Um, but I I worked it all got worked out.
00:35:43
◼
►
And so I guess the question is in the future, if something goes wrong,
00:35:47
◼
►
am I gonna have to talk to Apple or am I gonna have to
00:35:49
◼
►
talk to Klarna?
00:35:50
◼
►
Because I know which of those I'd rather do.
00:35:52
◼
►
Um and it it has me a little wary of this program.
00:35:57
◼
►
I'm not gonna say it's a bad deal because I think anybody who's run
00:36:00
◼
►
the numbers has been like, it's very comparable.
00:36:03
◼
►
Um, but I I do have some questions about the implementation.
00:36:06
◼
►
And my biggest experience with the iPhone upgrade program over the course of it
00:36:10
◼
►
was that it started very rough and it got better over time.
00:36:14
◼
►
So a part of me is a little worried about the prospect of being
00:36:18
◼
►
a guinea pig with an unknown partner in the mix.
00:36:23
◼
►
Because if something does go wrong, it how difficult is it going to be
00:36:27
◼
►
for me to untangle all of that?
00:36:29
◼
►
Because time has a value as well.
00:36:31
◼
►
So, you know, like I said, some of this is very vibes based, where
00:36:36
◼
►
it's like, I feel a slightly uneasy of it or just wary about it.
00:36:41
◼
►
And I'm not quite ready to dive right in, but I I do appreciate
00:36:45
◼
►
that it is a it is not sort of overtly a like much worse
00:36:51
◼
►
deal, from what I can tell.
00:36:53
◼
►
It's just different.
00:36:54
◼
►
And it's different.
00:36:55
◼
►
And you're right, vibes is part of it.
00:36:57
◼
►
I think uh uh all the analysis I've seen from people who've kind of
00:36:59
◼
►
run the numbers are saying, look, and this is true of literally everything that's
00:37:04
◼
►
ever been the case with buying, even buying outright a device, which is if
00:37:09
◼
►
you put in the work, you buy it yourself, you've got the money to
00:37:12
◼
►
buy it up front, and then you use it, and then at that perfect
00:37:15
◼
►
moment where you want to get something new, you sell it to someone, you
00:37:19
◼
►
can make you it will be better off than using a program like this.
00:37:24
◼
►
But the thing is, you have to have the money up front and you
00:37:26
◼
►
have to put in the effort to sell it.
00:37:28
◼
►
And I know for a lot of people, um, this is why, okay, why
00:37:31
◼
►
did why does the Apple trade in not pay off as well as some
00:37:34
◼
►
other trade-ins do?
00:37:35
◼
►
And the answer is because you're you're giving money away for convenience because then
00:37:39
◼
►
you just do it as part of your Apple transaction when you buy your
00:37:42
◼
►
new phone is give them your old phone and they buy it back and
00:37:44
◼
►
they give you credit, and it's easy.
00:37:46
◼
►
And like, could you sell that phone for more on you know Craigslist or
00:37:51
◼
►
eBay or to a friend or from a third-party buyback service that has slightly
00:37:57
◼
►
better rates than Apple's?
00:37:58
◼
►
Yes, you could, but most people are not going to because it's just more
00:38:03
◼
►
And so it's a little bit more to do it this way.
00:38:06
◼
►
But most people, I think the argument goes, um, are gonna be either not
00:38:12
◼
►
gonna look or are going to say that I'm not gonna go down that
00:38:16
◼
►
It's just too complicated.
00:38:17
◼
►
It does sound that ultimately, I mean, I think a lot of our listeners,
00:38:21
◼
►
especially, the reason that the a program like this appeals, and I think it's
00:38:24
◼
►
why it appeals to you, is you get a new phone every year.
00:38:27
◼
►
And the the part of that is you give your old phone back and
00:38:30
◼
►
get the new phone.
00:38:31
◼
►
You don't have to worry.
00:38:32
◼
►
And there is something, as you said, like the selling it comes with a
00:38:35
◼
►
cost because there's an idea that like uh what happens if you've slightly dinged
00:38:40
◼
►
up your phone, right?
00:38:41
◼
►
Like how much damage is it before Apple will accept it back versus how
00:38:45
◼
►
much damage is it before somebody else who wants to buy that phone will
00:38:47
◼
►
be like, that's a little too dinged up for me.
00:38:49
◼
►
And there and there is there is a cost there.
00:38:52
◼
►
So that that's all part of the challenge.
00:38:53
◼
►
But I I think like the appeal of this, because I know the other
00:38:57
◼
►
part of this is I know that a lot of people are like, well,
00:39:00
◼
►
I just buy it every year.
00:39:01
◼
►
And that's what I do.
00:39:02
◼
►
I just buy a buy a phone.
00:39:04
◼
►
Um, but it's not just, oh, I don't have the money in the bank.
00:39:06
◼
►
That is part of it for some people, but it's it's what um I
00:39:10
◼
►
think you get out of it, which is it is reliability.
00:39:15
◼
►
It in that that for some people who are looking at their budgets, they
00:39:19
◼
►
like the idea of spending a fixed amount that they know they're gonna be
00:39:23
◼
►
spending for the next year.
00:39:24
◼
►
Not that every September they're gonna get a bill for a thousand and something
00:39:29
◼
►
dollars, and that there's value in saying I would rather not, and it's it's
00:39:34
◼
►
essentially interest-free, right?
00:39:35
◼
►
So it's not I anything other than I just want to spread this out
00:39:39
◼
►
so it's the same number every month because then my expenses are flat every
00:39:44
◼
►
And there are still alternatives if you have the Apple card, you can finance
00:39:47
◼
►
it over the Apple card on sort of the same plan where you kind
00:39:52
◼
►
of just pay in installments, but you're essentially buying outright, but like paying an
00:39:57
◼
►
installments.
00:39:58
◼
►
Slightly different, you don't get the same upgrade like treadmill from that because you
00:40:02
◼
►
aren't immediately like it's not part of a program.
00:40:06
◼
►
You're still gonna have to trade it back into Apple.
00:40:08
◼
►
But like, you know, you can do that with Apple, right?
00:40:10
◼
►
When you buy a new phone from Apple, they they're like, Do you want
00:40:13
◼
►
to trade one in?
00:40:13
◼
►
Like the Apple card, uh, this is all US only, right?
00:40:16
◼
►
By the way, it's just part of it too.
00:40:17
◼
►
Is it and that there's, I mean, it's just financial stuff is so restrictive
00:40:21
◼
►
and it it obviously it shows the limits of Apple's powers that they at
00:40:25
◼
►
least initially there are only certain places, this is their number one market, and
00:40:28
◼
►
so they're gonna choose it, but also it's their home market and they're more
00:40:29
◼
►
comfortable with the with the regulations and all of that.
00:40:34
◼
►
But obviously also not according to German, not so comfortable that they wanted to
00:40:38
◼
►
set up their own bank or whatever, right?
00:40:40
◼
►
Like they really like having financial partners.
00:40:43
◼
►
Yeah, they briefly had like a financial like company that they kind of created
00:40:47
◼
►
and then they wound it down.
00:40:49
◼
►
Yeah, I think because they decided it was more trouble than it's worth.
00:40:51
◼
►
And I can't blame them for that.
00:40:52
◼
►
I mean, well, it goes to the whole Tim Tim Cook doctrine of like
00:40:56
◼
►
you need to control the stuff that that is in inherent and inimical to
00:41:00
◼
►
your business.
00:41:00
◼
►
And uh, you know what?
00:41:01
◼
►
I think they decided this finance stuff is not.
00:41:04
◼
►
It's it's just we don't need to be the ones who own this.
00:41:07
◼
►
It's like we could just let do we want to do spread it over
00:41:09
◼
►
four payments?
00:41:10
◼
►
Let's just let Klarna do that.
00:41:11
◼
►
We don't need to do that.
00:41:12
◼
►
Or we do we need a financial backer.
00:41:14
◼
►
And and so Klarna here is not a silent partner, but it is vibes
00:41:18
◼
►
aside, it is basically just the the engine powering this from a financial and
00:41:25
◼
►
regulatory perspective.
00:41:26
◼
►
And I think that's reasonable.
00:41:27
◼
►
Now now we gotta expand this.
00:41:30
◼
►
This also covers the Mac, the iPad, the Apple Watch, the big tick, the
00:41:34
◼
►
big ticket items.
00:41:36
◼
►
Vision Pro, uh the big ticket items are covered in this as well.
00:41:41
◼
►
And this is uh I want to read a couple of of quotes from
00:41:43
◼
►
Mark German's take on this because I thought we're out of the room around
00:41:46
◼
►
up now, but like uh German, I you know that I thought were cynical,
00:41:53
◼
►
I don't know.
00:41:54
◼
►
German as a pundit is interesting, and then also the worldview of Bloomberg, right,
00:41:58
◼
►
and all financial journalism is fascinating because they often have a very different worldview
00:42:02
◼
►
than somebody who's more of a technology person.
00:42:05
◼
►
Uh but he said that Apple could be could end up building turning its
00:42:09
◼
►
hardware business into, quote, potentially the largest subscription provider in history.
00:42:14
◼
►
And ultimately, Apple is changing the psychology of the purchase.
00:42:18
◼
►
Now, I think this is interesting because on one level, I actually kind of
00:42:24
◼
►
like where he's going here.
00:42:27
◼
►
Where prices are going up.
00:42:29
◼
►
Prices have gone up or and are about to go up and may go
00:42:33
◼
►
up for a while.
00:42:33
◼
►
Everything is more expensive than it used to be.
00:42:36
◼
►
And there are a lot of people in Apple's ecosystem who are, in fact,
00:42:40
◼
►
I think a lot of our listeners, and we are like this too, where
00:42:44
◼
►
the way we live our lives is we go from Apple device to Apple
00:42:47
◼
►
device to Apple device, right?
00:42:50
◼
►
And this is sort of Apple's opportunity to say, why don't you not buy
00:42:58
◼
►
products anymore?
00:43:00
◼
►
Why don't you just get them and add them to your bill?
00:43:04
◼
►
And if you think about it, they already got Apple One, they've got Apple
00:43:08
◼
►
Now they're going to add this program that has gives you the ability to
00:43:12
◼
►
basically say, send me, like we said about the iPhone program, send me a
00:43:17
◼
►
monthly bill.
00:43:18
◼
►
I know what it's going to be.
00:43:19
◼
►
And when I reach the point where I want a new whatever, and they
00:43:23
◼
►
all have terms, right?
00:43:24
◼
►
So if you say, well, what if I want to keep that map quickare
00:43:26
◼
►
for three years?
00:43:27
◼
►
Well, at a certain point, you either upgrade it or you just pay it
00:43:31
◼
►
You buy it out, yeah.
00:43:31
◼
►
And then you have it.
00:43:33
◼
►
So there is a decision point, but it could be 24 or 36 months
00:43:37
◼
►
Like, I look, I'm somebody who just buys this stuff up front.
00:43:40
◼
►
So it's it's not for me, but I kind of see the appeal on
00:43:45
◼
►
a on one level of like if you're just always gonna get a new
00:43:48
◼
►
Mac every couple years and a new iPhone every year, having a just put
00:43:53
◼
►
it on my bill, my Apple tithe that is now whatever it is a
00:43:58
◼
►
month, but you just have the Apple stuff and it's an understandable number that
00:44:03
◼
►
hits your credit card every month.
00:44:06
◼
►
I I mean I knew people, as I'm sure you have, who you know
00:44:10
◼
►
always leased cars, right?
00:44:12
◼
►
They they're like I'm gonna put a car lease for I've never done that
00:44:16
◼
►
But it's like I'm gonna get a car for three years, I'm gonna get
00:44:19
◼
►
Um and right.
00:44:20
◼
►
Some people are gonna be that, and some people are gonna be the me
00:44:22
◼
►
uh thing where uh and you, which is I'm gonna buy a car and
00:44:25
◼
►
then I'm gonna keep that car a very long time.
00:44:28
◼
►
Yeah, I and I but I get the appeal.
00:44:30
◼
►
I mean, if you're a person who is like likes cars and like doesn't
00:44:33
◼
►
want to deal with like ongoing maintenance as cars, you know, age and break
00:44:36
◼
►
down once you get a new car.
00:44:38
◼
►
Um and it's kind of interesting.
00:44:40
◼
►
I mean, you know, one of German's points was also about sort of the
00:44:42
◼
►
marketing of it.
00:44:43
◼
►
And I just was, you know, in our uh went to the iPhone page
00:44:46
◼
►
and it says right up front, so from 10.9, this iPhone 17 Pro from
00:44:49
◼
►
1099 or 40, 45.79 cents a month for 24 months, next line, lease from
00:44:56
◼
►
31.99 for 24 months with Apple upgrade.
00:44:59
◼
►
And it's like, boy, right?
00:45:02
◼
►
Like, I see those numbers and I'm like, well, why is it why is
00:45:05
◼
►
it so much cheaper?
00:45:05
◼
►
But I can only just pay, I could pay $32 a month and get
00:45:09
◼
►
it and get this great iPhone, this top of the line iPhone.
00:45:12
◼
►
Like, yeah, you know, there's a lot of work going into that.
00:45:15
◼
►
And I think, you know, it's also nice for Apple because not just in
00:45:19
◼
►
terms of services revenue, but in terms of smoothing their revenue a bit, right?
00:45:23
◼
►
They get these giant quarters when the new iPhone comes out.
00:45:25
◼
►
And you're like, well, what if we could take some of that income and
00:45:27
◼
►
divide it up so that every month we get paid a little bit?
00:45:31
◼
►
Just spread it out.
00:45:32
◼
►
There's something to that to the from their financial perspective.
00:45:35
◼
►
And we should say they're also carrier deals.
00:45:37
◼
►
So there are other, if you're thinking about this, um your carrier also has
00:45:42
◼
►
deals, they're different, and you may prefer to work with Apple than work with
00:45:44
◼
►
your carrier because there's probably greater trust.
00:45:47
◼
►
Although I I would I I think I said on a Mac break last
00:45:50
◼
►
week that like I've been on ATT since it was singular.
00:45:55
◼
►
Um in fact, I think I've been on ATT since it was ATT before
00:45:58
◼
►
it was singular, and then it became singular and then it became ATT.
00:46:01
◼
►
I think I just missed the singular years.
00:46:03
◼
►
And I only have one cell phone service that gives me bars at my
00:46:09
◼
►
house and it's ATT.
00:46:11
◼
►
So I'm never leaving ATT.
00:46:12
◼
►
I'm just never leaving ATT.
00:46:14
◼
►
And yet I never ever, ever look, even look at their offers.
00:46:19
◼
►
And like I know I know the cell phone companies are evil and bad.
00:46:24
◼
►
I I know, but I probably am not saving money I could save because
00:46:30
◼
►
they're gonna give me the same offer that they'd give to retain a customer
00:46:33
◼
►
who might churn, and I know I'm never gonna churn.
00:46:36
◼
►
And yet, so people should look.
00:46:38
◼
►
I I guess what I'm saying is I know you don't like your carrier,
00:46:40
◼
►
uh, or you like them less than Apple, maybe, but uh also a thing
00:46:44
◼
►
to consider.
00:46:45
◼
►
There are there are lots of there are lots of companies that would like
00:46:47
◼
►
to, in exchange for a commitment, get a monthly fee from you.
00:46:50
◼
►
I guess that's why you want your business.
00:46:52
◼
►
And yeah, absolutely.
00:46:53
◼
►
But beyond the phone, though, I think like the Mac, it gets really interesting.
00:46:56
◼
►
The Mac, the iPad, the Apple Watch, where you could just say, you know,
00:47:01
◼
►
I always want to have an Apple Watch.
00:47:03
◼
►
I always wanted to be relatively new.
00:47:06
◼
►
Do I want to go through it it's back to convenience again?
00:47:09
◼
►
The trouble of buying an Apple Watch and then trying to gauge when its
00:47:12
◼
►
battery is bad, and do I want to buy full price a new Apple
00:47:17
◼
►
Or do I want to commit to an Apple Watch for two years or
00:47:20
◼
►
three years, and then know that when it's over, it goes away, and I
00:47:24
◼
►
commit to a new one for two or three years.
00:47:26
◼
►
I can see the appeal.
00:47:27
◼
►
I mean, and I think, look, it's not an exact analogy, but like if
00:47:32
◼
►
you're nice, if you are lucky enough and privileged enough to be in the
00:47:35
◼
►
position to be able to choose, do I want to rent this apartment or
00:47:38
◼
►
buy a house?
00:47:39
◼
►
There are different considerations that go into that.
00:47:42
◼
►
And I think obviously more considerations in the case of renting versus buying a
00:47:46
◼
►
But yeah, there is something to be said for if you're renting a place,
00:47:49
◼
►
it's like, well, you can terminate your lease and walk away and rent someplace
00:47:53
◼
►
else, generally.
00:47:54
◼
►
Whereas if you got a house, well, now you gotta sell a house.
00:47:57
◼
►
Um, you know, it it changes the dynamics.
00:47:59
◼
►
Uh the prices, you know, change.
00:48:01
◼
►
You have to worry about things like financing.
00:48:04
◼
►
Um, if you miss a payment, right, like that is an issue as well.
00:48:07
◼
►
Like, and that's where, again, where companies like Klarna are and probably to a
00:48:12
◼
►
certain extent the citizens one loan that you got, like they want or assume
00:48:18
◼
►
some number of people will miss payments and they will make some money on
00:48:21
◼
►
those people, whether it's via interest or via fees or whatever.
00:48:26
◼
►
And so, you know, if you are somebody who feels like, well, I can
00:48:29
◼
►
very confidently make 45 dollars a month payments, then maybe this is a good,
00:48:34
◼
►
a good plan for you.
00:48:35
◼
►
I I don't know.
00:48:36
◼
►
I I on the face of it, I feel like there's no reason I
00:48:39
◼
►
shouldn't be willing to just switch to this program, but I also feel like
00:48:44
◼
►
I just don't just not sure.
00:48:47
◼
►
Like you said, the vibes are weird.
00:48:49
◼
►
And then I mean, you've got because you're already in the iPhone upgrade program,
00:48:52
◼
►
you've got a year to think about it before they wind down this program,
00:48:56
◼
►
Well, I mean, I I I have to, I can't, I have to change
00:49:00
◼
►
now because if I'm going to get a new phone this fall, I have
00:49:04
◼
►
And so this, and this is the other part of this equation, right?
00:49:07
◼
►
Like, A, prices are getting you mentioned this before, but prices are getting higher.
00:49:11
◼
►
B, Apple is poised to unveil the most expensive iPhone that it has ever
00:49:14
◼
►
And that, and by a lot.
00:49:19
◼
►
And so there's an interesting question there, right?
00:49:21
◼
►
Do you want to pay 2,000 plus dollars, you know, for a brand new
00:49:26
◼
►
Or would you rather just pay $70 a month?
00:49:30
◼
►
And I I, you know, $7 a month seems like a lot better deal.
00:49:34
◼
►
But where I always think to myself, and I I'm sure you do too,
00:49:37
◼
►
where's the catch?
00:49:38
◼
►
And and I I don't, I can't find it, and that makes me warier.
00:49:42
◼
►
Like if I know what the catch is, I feel like, okay, I'm fully
00:49:45
◼
►
informed and I'll go in, like knowing that's gonna be the issue, and I
00:49:49
◼
►
know that it's not gonna be an issue for me, or I'll know how
00:49:51
◼
►
to avoid it.
00:49:52
◼
►
But when I can't tell what the catch is, I'm like, well, am I
00:49:55
◼
►
gonna get got right?
00:49:56
◼
►
Like, am I going to miss something in the fine print and realize, you
00:49:59
◼
►
know, when a year comes around, it's like, oh, well, you owe us this
00:50:02
◼
►
money, or no, you can't do this.
00:50:04
◼
►
And so, you know, I had a lot of concerns when this report first
00:50:06
◼
►
came out because we also saw a similar report at the same time that
00:50:09
◼
►
said, like, Apple's building these features in that can restrict the use of a
00:50:13
◼
►
Now, they came out very publicly, I noted, including with attributed statements to people
00:50:18
◼
►
saying we're not going to do that for this program.
00:50:21
◼
►
And I think that was real smart to get in front of that because
00:50:24
◼
►
you know there was a lot of concern around it.
00:50:25
◼
►
Yeah, quite rightly.
00:50:27
◼
►
But but yeah, absolutely.
00:50:28
◼
►
If they're building those features, they're for somebody else in some other market that
00:50:31
◼
►
is probably gonna be pretty ugly.
00:50:33
◼
►
Yeah, I mean, the good news is you've got, you know, I guess six
00:50:36
◼
►
weeks to figure it out.
00:50:37
◼
►
The bad news, the bad news is I think for Apple is you're taking
00:50:42
◼
►
people out of a program and you're making them reconsider their options, and they're
00:50:45
◼
►
not always gonna throw down with you and your new option.
00:50:47
◼
►
You're giving everybody a chance to rethink it.
00:50:49
◼
►
I think it's a great opportunity for the people who are in that program
00:50:52
◼
►
and people who have thought about that program to think, what how do I
00:50:55
◼
►
want to approach this, especially as these prices go up?
00:50:59
◼
►
Does this work better for me?
00:50:59
◼
►
Because look, I'm somebody who pays my credit card off every month, right?
00:51:05
◼
►
But I use a credit card, but I pay it off every month, which
00:51:07
◼
►
means other than a credit card fee, annual fee for some of the cards
00:51:10
◼
►
that we've got.
00:51:12
◼
►
I'm not ever hitting their interest rate.
00:51:14
◼
►
And these are zero interest rate loans or their leases at basically the same
00:51:19
◼
►
kind of terms.
00:51:21
◼
►
So there, if you're responsible and do what you need to do, it's actually
00:51:27
◼
►
your financial benefit because instead of you could take the money that you're not
00:51:32
◼
►
paying up front and have it earn interest or whatever elsewhere at a rate
00:51:39
◼
►
that, you know, because it's in your pocket instead of being in their pocket.
00:51:43
◼
►
So you could make that argument, but there's a lot of catches, and you
00:51:47
◼
►
got to think about it and you got to be smart about it.
00:51:49
◼
►
And a lot of people, a lot of these companies, this goes back to
00:51:52
◼
►
A lot of these companies make their bank on people who fall through those
00:51:57
◼
►
cracks, who don't make the payments.
00:52:00
◼
►
Yeah, or out over their skis, you know, or aren't great at managing their
00:52:04
◼
►
And that's I think that's the struggle with it is it it's it feels
00:52:08
◼
►
gross at times, but it is also the world that we live in.
00:52:11
◼
►
So yes, the world is gross.
00:52:13
◼
►
Yeah, the world is gross at times.
00:52:16
◼
►
Just a little uh heartwarming moment there from your upgrade program.
00:52:21
◼
►
The good anyway, I I got six weeks.
00:52:23
◼
►
I'll be I'm definitely gonna be thinking about this.
00:52:25
◼
►
I think it's gonna be a big question, especially when I see the price
00:52:28
◼
►
tag on that folding phone because I am interested in the folding phone.
00:52:31
◼
►
And am I gonna be able to cough up however many thousands of dollars
00:52:35
◼
►
Or am I gonna think to myself, well, it's just so much easier if
00:52:38
◼
►
I only have to pay them 70 bucks a month or whatever.
00:52:40
◼
►
And I think it's a tough, tough question.
00:52:42
◼
►
We'll have to see.
00:52:44
◼
►
This episode of Upgrade is brought to you by Backblaze.
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Here's the thing that comes up a lot.
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00:54:10
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Money, money, money, money, who has all the money?
00:54:14
◼
►
Money, money, money, money.
00:54:16
◼
►
Who has all the money?
00:54:18
◼
►
Money, money, money, money.
00:54:20
◼
►
Who has all the money?
00:54:26
◼
►
Apple results time.
00:54:28
◼
►
Everybody's favorite time of the quarter.
00:54:30
◼
►
We get to hear the song.
00:54:32
◼
►
When I'm not on my show, I can still hear the dulcet tones of
00:54:34
◼
►
Lex Friedman.
00:54:35
◼
►
That's right.
00:54:29
◼
►
My good friend and co-host.
00:54:36
◼
►
You can't escape Lex uh because he made the greatest earworm he'll ever make,
00:54:40
◼
►
which is the Apple Money song.
00:54:42
◼
►
Um lyrics by me, by the way, but they're not many lyrics.
00:54:47
◼
►
Yeah, that word is going to be uh well deserved.
00:54:51
◼
►
It's my poetry.
00:54:52
◼
►
It's like that's my slam poetry is the money, Apple Money poetry.
00:54:56
◼
►
Um yet another record quarter, Dan.
00:54:58
◼
►
Well, uh now I feel like you and I, because we do this usually
00:55:01
◼
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on YouTube uh every quarter.
00:55:03
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We didn't do it this time, so here it is.
00:55:05
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Yet another record quarter, Dan, 109.4 billion continuing their streak.
00:55:09
◼
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Will we ever have a quarter under 100 billion from Apple again?
00:55:12
◼
►
I don't know.
00:55:13
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►
Uh not unless something goes real wrong.
00:55:15
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►
Yeah, real bad.
00:55:15
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►
That would be bad for John Turnus.
00:55:17
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►
Up 16% year over year.
00:55:18
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►
It's the third straight quarter of double digit year over year revenue growth.
00:55:22
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►
I don't know if anybody saw that coming.
00:55:23
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►
Their ninth straight quarter of year over year growth.
00:55:26
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►
They made $9.8 billion in profit, and their gross margins were above 50%, although
00:55:34
◼
►
a lot of that was driven a few points of it by tariff refunds,
00:55:39
◼
►
which then they promised the president they would uh invest back in America.
00:55:43
◼
►
Uh we're like we're good, we're good, we promise we'll be good.
00:55:47
◼
►
Um, third straight quarter of strong growth in China and iPhone up 22%, Mac
00:55:52
◼
►
up 29%, services up 12%, wearables up six percent, and the iPad down six
00:55:59
◼
►
Uh but uh again, just an incredibly strong quarter of performance from Apple here.
00:56:06
◼
►
Yeah, I you know, like we said, the 100 million or 100 billion, excuse
00:56:11
◼
►
Now we're talking about real money, has quickly become just the default for Apple
00:56:16
◼
►
for revenue.
00:56:17
◼
►
And that's astounding because it was not that long ago that we were talking
00:56:21
◼
►
about, oh, when when is 100 billion going to be just the normal quarter?
00:56:24
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►
And I that was like a year less than a year ago, Jason.
00:56:27
◼
►
I think we were talking about that.
00:56:29
◼
►
And so uh, you know, somebody pointed out that Tim like the it was
00:56:34
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a hundred and like they made like a hundred and eight billion in revenue
00:56:37
◼
►
the first year Tim was CEO.
00:56:39
◼
►
And they made that and in a quarter in a non-holiday quarter.
00:56:43
◼
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Yeah, kind of, I mean, yeah, we're going into uh uh a couple big
00:56:47
◼
►
quarters coming up, so it feels like watching that graph change is gonna be
00:56:52
◼
►
kind of fascinating.
00:56:54
◼
►
Um there's a there's a lot to unpack here.
00:56:57
◼
►
Um that that growth, particularly, I think in in was it the iPhone and
00:57:03
◼
►
Was it 22 and 29% growth, I think, respectively.
00:57:06
◼
►
Year over year.
00:57:07
◼
►
It's and and they specifically called out the MacBook Pro and the MacBook Neo
00:57:10
◼
►
as strong performers, and they said the Neo has been especially popular and strongly
00:57:15
◼
►
suggested that they are struggling to meet meet demand for the Neo, and that
00:57:21
◼
►
um I've got a great line here about the Mac and the iPhone because
00:57:25
◼
►
those numbers, right, are huge.
00:57:27
◼
►
And they asked, and they're supply constrained, like they can't make enough.
00:57:31
◼
►
The they they they could have sold more, but they are having these problems.
00:57:34
◼
►
And we know that some of that is is will, which we'll talk about
00:57:38
◼
►
in a second, is about the RAM shortages and issue issues with volume at
00:57:42
◼
►
TSMC for the systems on the chip.
00:57:45
◼
►
Advanced nodes.
00:57:46
◼
►
But this is what, yeah, we've gone from the legacy nodes.
00:57:48
◼
►
Now the legacy nodes are not the problem.
00:57:50
◼
►
It's the advanced nodes that are the problem.
00:57:52
◼
►
Tim Cook said the root cause of this is not a supply issue.
00:57:57
◼
►
Because everybody's like, oh yeah, you know, the problem is supply.
00:57:59
◼
►
And he's like, it's a demand forecast issue.
00:58:01
◼
►
Our bad, he says.
00:58:03
◼
►
The iPhone and the Mac are both doing remarkably better than we thought they
00:58:08
◼
►
And we had high expectations.
00:58:10
◼
►
It wasn't that our expectations were low.
00:58:12
◼
►
We we we really tried everybody.
00:58:14
◼
►
But as you can see, these are extraordinary numbers, and the supply chain just
00:58:19
◼
►
has less flexibility in it than normal.
00:58:21
◼
►
We've been pulling supply ahead.
00:58:23
◼
►
At some point there's a limit to that.
00:58:25
◼
►
And so we've got a quarter that we're gonna be scrambling on the supply
00:58:28
◼
►
side, essentially.
00:58:29
◼
►
This isn't a partner or supplier issue.
00:58:32
◼
►
The issue is an incredibly strong iPhone and Mac product cycle that has yielded
00:58:37
◼
►
a demand beyond our expectations.
00:58:39
◼
►
And he's right, like the iPhone 17 cycle has been way up, and I
00:58:43
◼
►
think beyond because up isn't the problem, up beyond what Apple thought it would
00:58:47
◼
►
And the MacBook Neo, doing well, I'm sure Apple thought it would do well.
00:58:51
◼
►
It did way more than even they expected it would do.
00:58:54
◼
►
This is also Tim Cook not throwing TSMC under the bus, right?
00:58:59
◼
►
It's a double-barreled problem, right?
00:59:02
◼
►
It is high demand and supply constraints.
00:59:07
◼
►
I think the less flexibility line is so key there.
00:59:10
◼
►
Because I I think what he's implying, and I think this is true, is
00:59:15
◼
►
if you miss with your expectations, you're basically saying I didn't order enough, right?
00:59:20
◼
►
I thought we would sell a thousand, we sold two thousand.
00:59:22
◼
►
I didn't, I only ordered a thousand.
00:59:24
◼
►
So what are we?
00:59:25
◼
►
How do we so that's part of it?
00:59:28
◼
►
But the other part of it is, right?
00:59:29
◼
►
Perhaps in another era, TSMC would have more flexibility to increase their orders, but
00:59:35
◼
►
they don't because they are maxed out everywhere with AI chips and stuff in
00:59:41
◼
►
addition to Apple.
00:59:42
◼
►
So it's it's not TSMC's fault, is what he's saying.
00:59:46
◼
►
But we have to say one of the consequences of it, TSMC having all
00:59:52
◼
►
of these other clients is that they can't turn the dial on Apple's order
00:59:58
◼
►
and Apple underordered.
00:59:59
◼
►
So Apple has to pay for it.
01:00:01
◼
►
If you, as you said, if you forecast you're gonna sell a thousand and
01:00:04
◼
►
you sell 2,000, you're in trouble.
01:00:06
◼
►
If you can't then go to your supplier and be like, hey, how much
01:00:09
◼
►
should we pay you for another thousand?
01:00:11
◼
►
And they're just like, we can't do it.
01:00:13
◼
►
We do not have the space to make these things, then you're really in
01:00:17
◼
►
And so I'm kind of fascinated by this because some of this, so I
01:00:21
◼
►
don't know your read on this, but like we they talk a little bit
01:00:23
◼
►
about the memory shortages and stuff like that.
01:00:25
◼
►
Obviously, a lot of this is getting driven by AI related stuff.
01:00:28
◼
►
There's a all the Ramgeddon, Ram Armageddon stuff is is driven by that.
01:00:32
◼
►
But I'm also trying to wonder how much of the demand for stuff is
01:00:35
◼
►
AI driven, right?
01:00:36
◼
►
For certainly for higher end stuff like the MacBook Pro, and they talked about
01:00:39
◼
►
demand on that, or the Mac Studio or the Mac Mini, there is definitely
01:00:44
◼
►
some demand from people using them for AI workflows, right?
01:00:48
◼
►
We know people who bought a ton of Mac minis and they started taking
01:00:50
◼
►
models off sale, right?
01:00:51
◼
►
And like that is it is fascinating to watch a singular inflection point that
01:00:58
◼
►
has shifted in and affected both supply and demand because the demand is so
01:01:04
◼
►
high that the supply can't keep up.
01:01:06
◼
►
And so they're two sides of the same coin to a certain degree, and
01:01:11
◼
►
it means that they are kind of like a like a wave amplification thing
01:01:15
◼
►
where you get two waves that like intersect and it like makes the wave
01:01:18
◼
►
even bigger.
01:01:19
◼
►
You're dealing with this thing that, as he, you know, Cook has has called
01:01:23
◼
►
it a hundred-year flood.
01:01:24
◼
►
Um it just doesn't happen very often.
01:01:27
◼
►
So it is fascinating to see why what things have drive driven demand and
01:01:29
◼
►
why they're driving demand and why supply is not able to keep up.
01:01:37
◼
►
And Apple is usually a company that, as they said, they do a really
01:01:40
◼
►
good job of forecasting these things.
01:01:42
◼
►
Uh, the iPhone one in particular, I am I am especially fascinated by because
01:01:45
◼
►
it wouldn't seem to me that there is a clear driver there, right?
01:01:50
◼
►
Like, there's not like, oh, it's this one thing that these products do that
01:01:55
◼
►
no old products could do, and therefore people want to buy them to do
01:02:01
◼
►
There's a lot of good things in this product line.
01:02:03
◼
►
I think that's what's doing it, is like the 17's a really good phone.
01:02:07
◼
►
It it is a strong, I mean, at the time we knew it, right?
01:02:11
◼
►
As reviewers, we were like, wow, iPhone 17, 17 Pro, like this is a
01:02:15
◼
►
really good product line.
01:02:16
◼
►
Other than people being like, oh no, the iPhone Air is no good.
01:02:18
◼
►
Well, like it hasn't hurt them at all.
01:02:21
◼
►
But like pulling all of those pro features down into the 17, and then
01:02:24
◼
►
the new that aluminum body and the orange one and all like it it
01:02:29
◼
►
didn't feel at the time, it felt like a really solid upgrade, but I
01:02:32
◼
►
felt it was it was almost like we real ones know that this is
01:02:35
◼
►
a good year for the iPhone.
01:02:36
◼
►
Turns out real ones knew everybody else knew too.
01:02:38
◼
►
And that's like it's 30% increase, right?
01:02:42
◼
►
Like that that is beyond the like, oh, this is a good product.
01:02:45
◼
►
It's not a wholesale redesign of the product line, right?
01:02:49
◼
►
Or or a killer new feature, right?
01:02:51
◼
►
There's not one killer new feature in this.
01:02:53
◼
►
And so I I kind of looked at that and thinking to myself, like,
01:02:56
◼
►
are people buying iPhones to chain them together and use them in AI workflows?
01:03:00
◼
►
Like, what is going on?
01:03:01
◼
►
Like iPhone Air, it's gonna be great for it.
01:03:03
◼
►
Just everybody get on it.
01:03:05
◼
►
Stack of them.
01:03:06
◼
►
Yeah, it's just it is, and and I remember talking about this about the
01:03:09
◼
►
Neo, um, when there are all the stories about, oh, they're not gonna how
01:03:12
◼
►
many Neos can they make?
01:03:13
◼
►
And I do wonder how many choices they make that are like make more
01:03:17
◼
►
of this one, make uh German wrote at one point that Apple's pushing people
01:03:20
◼
►
toward the low-end MacBook Pro instead of the MacBook Air right now for like
01:03:24
◼
►
back to school and stuff.
01:03:25
◼
►
And it's like, well, it's kind of an inventory issue, isn't it?
01:03:27
◼
►
And and I know that you know, if you've only got a finite number
01:03:30
◼
►
of chips, you can make decisions like which product will you produce.
01:03:35
◼
►
Yeah, and so that's fascinating.
01:03:37
◼
►
But um, you know, uh the the Neo success is a great example of
01:03:42
◼
►
this, uh and and maybe the MacBook Pro too, where Apple I just I'm
01:03:48
◼
►
fascinated by the fact that Apple's decision making generally seems pretty careful and uh
01:03:54
◼
►
and knowledgeable, and they don't miss and they don't lack confidence in their own
01:04:01
◼
►
products, not by this much, yeah.
01:04:04
◼
►
They don't sandbag and they don't, you know, they're not like they're not modest
01:04:09
◼
►
Oh no, it's a nice product.
01:04:10
◼
►
Maybe people the Neo, like I'm sure people at Apple believe the Neo is
01:04:14
◼
►
gonna be a huge hit.
01:04:15
◼
►
I'm fascinated by the fact that they still undersold it.
01:04:19
◼
►
Yes, and what does that say about their decision making and will it change
01:04:22
◼
►
in the future?
01:04:23
◼
►
And and similarly, um, the iPhone 17.
01:04:26
◼
►
Like, I'm sure they thought it was great, but clearly they had no idea
01:04:33
◼
►
that there would be a sales surge on the 17 because it really isn't
01:04:36
◼
►
like like you said, it's better in lots of ways.
01:04:40
◼
►
Uh we were talking in the previous segment about like expensive phones coming and
01:04:45
◼
►
about buying programs.
01:04:46
◼
►
And I've got to be honest, the more I read about that, the more
01:04:50
◼
►
I think, little orange iPhone 17 Pro, I love you.
01:04:53
◼
►
I'm never gonna let you go.
01:04:56
◼
►
Like on one level, it's like maybe I'll just keep this phone for uh
01:04:59
◼
►
for a while because I love it so much.
01:04:59
◼
►
So it it's strong.
01:05:03
◼
►
I just am fascinated by the fact that even Apple, a company that does
01:05:06
◼
►
not lack confidence, didn't understand how much people were gonna want to buy these
01:05:11
◼
►
It's fascinating.
01:05:12
◼
►
It also casts into sort of fascinating like retrospect now the price raising decisions.
01:05:19
◼
►
Because somewhere in there, they're looking at the data and they're saying the Neo
01:05:24
◼
►
has done so well that if we bump, even if we bump the price
01:05:27
◼
►
by a hundred bucks and we will lose some customers because of that, it
01:05:32
◼
►
will not matter because we are selling so many.
01:05:35
◼
►
Like I think, I think they allowed them more elasticity in their pricing because
01:05:40
◼
►
they could look at these results and be like, look, this stuff is selling
01:05:43
◼
►
like hotcakes.
01:05:45
◼
►
And if we charge a little bit more, yeah, we'll we'll fuse some people
01:05:49
◼
►
will say that's too rich for my blood, but a lot of them won't.
01:05:53
◼
►
And uh that's a really interesting position to be in for them.
01:05:57
◼
►
Uh, because they are not a company that to, you know, the the Neo
01:06:00
◼
►
we all talked about is this is not a company that plays in this
01:06:03
◼
►
part of the market.
01:06:04
◼
►
And they walked in and immediately were like, we are selling this like it
01:06:08
◼
►
is bananas, right?
01:06:09
◼
►
Uh, and then they jacked the price a little bit after like six months,
01:06:13
◼
►
less than six months.
01:06:14
◼
►
Um just a fascinating ability.
01:06:17
◼
►
I I was drawn, you know, so you do a bunch of charts over
01:06:19
◼
►
at Six Colors, uh a couple of them grab my attention.
01:06:22
◼
►
I thought the one that really has kind of a fascinating look to it
01:06:26
◼
►
is that uh your product versus services total profit.
01:06:30
◼
►
Ah, yes, the march.
01:06:31
◼
►
This has yes, it's the lot, it's Nessy, Nessy beneath the waves.
01:06:35
◼
►
I always think of it because the services as this nice gradual ramp, and
01:06:40
◼
►
then the product is this spiky, like, you know, dorsal fins of sharks.
01:06:45
◼
►
Um, and you can kind of look at it over a long period and
01:06:44
◼
►
think to yourself, okay.
01:06:49
◼
►
What are the trends?
01:06:50
◼
►
What are we seeing, right?
01:06:50
◼
►
Like fascinating to me that in this most recent quarter, the services actually took
01:06:55
◼
►
a little bit of a dip.
01:06:57
◼
►
But the product line, like, and we're used to seeing those peaks get higher
01:07:01
◼
►
And that peak from the last holiday quarter is high.
01:07:04
◼
►
Like, look at that.
01:07:05
◼
►
Way up there.
01:07:06
◼
►
But then when it came back down, it's still pretty high.
01:07:09
◼
►
That's the thing that got me is it's like it's still in the what,
01:07:13
◼
►
like 30, low 30s, 30s for total profit.
01:07:16
◼
►
This one went up when they usually go down in Q3.
01:07:18
◼
►
Although they exact some of that's the tariffs, right?
01:07:20
◼
►
I like the tariffs.
01:07:21
◼
►
Tariff refunds fed that push that up by uh I think one or two
01:07:26
◼
►
points, essentially.
01:07:28
◼
►
But but it's still high.
01:07:30
◼
►
And I mean And the services being soft, because the services was down sequentially,
01:07:35
◼
►
which hasn't happened in like four years.
01:07:37
◼
►
I look three or three or four years.
01:07:39
◼
►
It's up year over year, but it was down sequentially.
01:07:42
◼
►
And what Apple will tell you, they got lots of excuses.
01:07:46
◼
►
Um I think foreign exchange headwinds.
01:07:49
◼
►
I love it, love a headwind.
01:07:51
◼
►
Love a headwind is probably a big part of it.
01:07:55
◼
►
I enjoyed how they tried to throw a lot of uh uh chum in
01:08:00
◼
►
the water, or maybe it's chaff.
01:08:01
◼
►
It's like what is it in a submarine movie?
01:08:03
◼
►
They gotta blow the chaff, yeah.
01:08:04
◼
►
They blow the chaff out of the bag so that the the torpedo doesn't
01:08:07
◼
►
The trip is moving.
01:08:08
◼
►
So they're like, the one that made me laugh the most is they're like,
01:08:10
◼
►
well, you know, last year we released F1 and it made a lot of
01:08:14
◼
►
And this year we didn't release a movie, and so that's one reason why
01:08:17
◼
►
services might be a little softer.
01:08:19
◼
►
And I'm like, really?
01:08:20
◼
►
I mean, they're like, it was one of the most profitable movies last year.
01:08:22
◼
►
Like, I mean, even then, it only made a few hundred million, probably.
01:08:26
◼
►
Like, um, and then they also tried to blame regulations for mean old judges
01:08:29
◼
►
and regulators that made them share things and not that one text links.
01:08:35
◼
►
Yeah, that one got me the most, right?
01:08:37
◼
►
Because uh Kevin Perek was talking, and he mentioned, like, look at all this.
01:08:43
◼
►
They have they have hit us so well.
01:08:44
◼
►
This is in the same section.
01:08:45
◼
►
We had the theatrical release of F1, one of the highest grossing sports films
01:08:48
◼
►
And this year we didn't have a theatre release.
01:08:50
◼
►
We also had some factors on the app store.
01:08:52
◼
►
Like we said, headwinds and mobile gaming.
01:08:54
◼
►
Keep in mind we also made some changes to App Store business model in
01:08:56
◼
►
certain countries.
01:08:57
◼
►
But in the US, we do continue to operate under a court ruling impacting
01:09:00
◼
►
link out transactions.
01:09:02
◼
►
We're pleased the Supreme Court will hear our deal.
01:09:04
◼
►
Then there's a beat.
01:09:05
◼
►
And then he says, Despite this, the app store did set a June quarter
01:09:08
◼
►
revenue record.
01:09:09
◼
►
I'm like, Well, what are you complaining about?
01:09:11
◼
►
That got me.
01:09:12
◼
►
I know, I know, I know.
01:09:14
◼
►
I I did the one note that I sounded like it had the ring
01:09:17
◼
►
of truth about it, is headwinds in mobile gaming that they saw.
01:09:20
◼
►
Because that's kind of random.
01:09:21
◼
►
They saw some issues with mobile gaming.
01:09:24
◼
►
There's huge app store revenue ratifications for mobile gaming, and that there were issues
01:09:28
◼
►
with mobile gaming, but still the app store set a quarter record.
01:09:32
◼
►
So I mean, I love that they pitch it like, well, we persevered.
01:09:36
◼
►
Yeah, we persevered buckled down and we still set a record.
01:09:39
◼
►
Mean old judge we just kept collecting the money.
01:09:41
◼
►
Made allowed people to link to the internet from their apps, and uh despite
01:09:47
◼
►
that, and it didn't hurt our business.
01:09:49
◼
►
Nevertheless, we we persisted.
01:09:52
◼
►
Yeah, I I thought that was pretty pretty rich for uh if you'll excuse
01:09:57
◼
►
the expression.
01:09:58
◼
►
Um everything Apple does is pretty rich these days, so that's fair.
01:10:02
◼
►
That's fair.
01:10:03
◼
►
Oh, um, we talked about systems on chips, but uh RAM obviously is the
01:10:07
◼
►
other thing that's being driven by uh the AI boom and RAM shortages are
01:10:12
◼
►
are causing problems, and I just thought I I thought Tim Cook made it
01:10:16
◼
►
very clear that, and this is one of the reasons that Apple stock actually
01:10:20
◼
►
took a tumble afterward, even though they did have all these successes, because he
01:10:23
◼
►
basically said, in addition to the having to scramble on the supplier side for
01:10:28
◼
►
for systems on chips for advanced nodes, you know, basically memory, the prices keep
01:10:35
◼
►
He said they went up.
01:10:36
◼
►
Yeah, we said they'd go up more last time and they did.
01:10:39
◼
►
Next time they're gonna go up more and they're gonna keep going up for
01:10:41
◼
►
the foreseeable future.
01:10:43
◼
►
And he said, I think most chillingly, that Apple has been pulling stuff from
01:10:49
◼
►
its carryover inventory.
01:10:50
◼
►
Basically, they've got stuff on hand that they've been using to make it make
01:10:56
◼
►
a little more sense financially, but we're gonna run out of that stuff.
01:11:01
◼
►
Yeah, because at some point they they have everything.
01:11:03
◼
►
Yeah, they've sold everything.
01:11:05
◼
►
That that is a challenge.
01:11:07
◼
►
We have not seen the end of this demand issue because yeah, you they
01:11:11
◼
►
talked about the carry-in inventory being one of the things that offset uh the
01:11:15
◼
►
problems, you know, these quarters, and they they say, like, okay, we had that
01:11:18
◼
►
the last quarter and the quarter before, we you know, we benefited from that.
01:11:22
◼
►
But yeah, there's only a certain amount of time that that stuff you have
01:11:25
◼
►
in the warehouse stays there because eventually you will sell it all, and then
01:11:29
◼
►
you will not have as much carry-in inventory, or at least as not carrying
01:11:33
◼
►
inventory that you paid last quarter's prices for.
01:11:36
◼
►
That's the key, is like we bought this.
01:11:38
◼
►
It's you know, arbitrage sort of like we bought this like you know, six
01:11:42
◼
►
months ago, and the RAM prices were not that bad, but eventually we will
01:11:46
◼
►
We will book the invent the you know revenue from it, and now we're
01:11:49
◼
►
gonna have to start selling all the stuff that we paid more for.
01:11:52
◼
►
And now that's the stuff, yeah.
01:11:53
◼
►
That's why we raised prices when we did, right?
01:11:55
◼
►
Because they're trying to sort of soften that blow.
01:11:58
◼
►
It's like, well, we uh, you know, paid more for it, so let's sell
01:11:59
◼
►
it for more.
01:12:02
◼
►
Um, but you know, that's a that's a difficult treadmill too, right?
01:12:06
◼
►
Because I I have to assume the pricing changes were done with a with
01:12:10
◼
►
some foresight here and thinking about like, right, we can weather this storm if
01:12:14
◼
►
it's six months.
01:12:16
◼
►
But if it's like we don't know, you know, a year, two years, might
01:12:18
◼
►
be more, like you presumably rose the you know, raise the prices enough so
01:12:24
◼
►
that you don't have to raise them again.
01:12:26
◼
►
Yeah, I don't know.
01:12:27
◼
►
I it may also be challenged.
01:12:28
◼
►
They raised it maybe enough so that the next time they do a new
01:12:31
◼
►
version of something, they'll raise it again.
01:12:33
◼
►
That's yeah, that's their they do have a little bit of possibility there.
01:12:36
◼
►
And I think we're all waiting to see what those you know, iPhone prices
01:12:39
◼
►
look like in the fall.
01:12:40
◼
►
He also did a Cook did an oblique, and this was his last, right?
01:12:43
◼
►
Last earnings call.
01:12:44
◼
►
This is his 90th and final earnings call.
01:12:46
◼
►
Um, he did a little oblique reference to basically there are only three manuf
01:12:51
◼
►
m memory manufacturers.
01:12:53
◼
►
And uh it would be sure be nice if there were more, which is
01:12:56
◼
►
the you know, Apple trying to get a a a RAM provider in China
01:13:00
◼
►
into the mix at least temporarily as a stopgap here, and how that has
01:13:04
◼
►
all sorts of uh uh political fallout.
01:13:07
◼
►
There are lots of senators who want to make hay on how you're funding
01:13:10
◼
►
the communist party and um and you're gonna destroy uh American RAM manufacturing by
01:13:17
◼
►
And it's like, you know, I look, I my opinion is that if if
01:13:23
◼
►
you get uh the government to say we'll give you two years, I don't
01:13:27
◼
►
think it does anything other than maybe reduce the harm of all this.
01:13:30
◼
►
But I guess if you're if you're concerned that the other RAM manufacturers will
01:13:34
◼
►
not have as much leverage over the entire market, I I guess that's a
01:13:36
◼
►
government decision to make.
01:13:38
◼
►
Is do you are you more concerned about Apple um struggling to release products?
01:13:42
◼
►
Are you more concerned with a a couple years of um good revenue going
01:13:46
◼
►
to a Chinese RAM manufacturer that's tied in with the government there.
01:13:49
◼
►
I don't know that I guess that's for the for the US government to
01:13:52
◼
►
decide but um but he did at least obliquely reference the thing that's been
01:13:59
◼
►
reported in lots of places that Apple's trying I still feel like um in
01:14:03
◼
►
the end this comes down to is there a is there a quid pro
01:14:06
◼
►
quo here is is this is this where Tim Cook calls on Donald Trump
01:14:12
◼
►
and says look we're putting a lot of money into the U.S.
01:14:15
◼
►
We're committed to the U.S.
01:14:16
◼
►
we're committed to building more RAM factories in the US but yeah right now
01:14:21
◼
►
we are bleeding help us takes too long yeah and I I've seen people
01:14:25
◼
►
say yeah but it's not going to happen because the senators are really grumpy
01:14:28
◼
►
about it and you know Chuck Schumer and Ted Cruz are angry about it.
01:14:32
◼
►
And it's like I I in a normal functioning US government I would agree
01:14:37
◼
►
that that might be an issue but I don't know I kind of feel
01:14:40
◼
►
like if Donald Trump was like fine then who's gonna stop him yeah I
01:14:45
◼
►
think that I think that's fair.
01:14:46
◼
►
I mean I I don't know I mean you know I I look at
01:14:50
◼
►
some of this and think to myself they've tried a lot of things like
01:14:53
◼
►
I I also noted they had um one of Ben Wright's he's asked them
01:14:57
◼
►
like about the like fabs in Arizona.
01:15:00
◼
►
Uh and and this was Tim came back and be like look it's not
01:15:02
◼
►
the suppliers like we just have too much and I it to my and
01:15:05
◼
►
we're spending money in Arizona lines on that one.
01:15:07
◼
►
Yeah my read between the lines on that is like look we see he
01:15:09
◼
►
says we source do source over a hundred million components this year out of
01:15:13
◼
►
Um I think they are basically getting as much as they can out of
01:15:16
◼
►
those, right?
01:15:17
◼
►
Like those are kind of limited.
01:15:18
◼
►
There're spinning up small fabs, they're still spinning up new fabs there, and in
01:15:22
◼
►
Colorado too.
01:15:24
◼
►
And Apple's, you know, investing whatever they're saying 30 billion yeah in US manufacturing
01:15:28
◼
►
and and they talked about that a lot.
01:15:30
◼
►
And you know, that's great.
01:15:32
◼
►
But like, I feel like part of their argument is we are invested in
01:15:35
◼
►
the future of manufacturing.
01:15:37
◼
►
He said, Cook actually said, look, we're doing this thing in Houston where we're
01:15:41
◼
►
bringing in people from our suppliers and other suppliers and showing them how they're
01:15:46
◼
►
they're trying to set up a thing where they're literally like, we're gonna show
01:15:49
◼
►
you how we manufacture things because we want to invest in American manufacturing.
01:15:55
◼
►
But and he said the goal is over the long term to increase the
01:15:59
◼
►
capacity of American companies and American factories to do this production work, but it
01:16:04
◼
►
will take time.
01:16:05
◼
►
And so the argument is while we're doing that, it would sure be nice
01:16:08
◼
►
if we could buy some RAM from over here in China to save us
01:16:13
◼
►
from the current, you know, temporary peril that we're in.
01:16:16
◼
►
The counter argument would be um, well, yeah, but you're enabling, you know, if
01:16:21
◼
►
there's a big glut, the American factories are going to be in trouble in
01:16:24
◼
►
Maybe you shouldn't do that.
01:16:26
◼
►
And just as your point, you said 30 billion.
01:16:28
◼
►
That was just their deal with broadcom.
01:16:30
◼
►
You're right.
01:16:30
◼
►
They're 600 billion.
01:16:31
◼
►
600 billion in the US for the American manufacturing program.
01:16:33
◼
►
You're right.
01:16:34
◼
►
The broadcomb those terra-free funds, so enjoy that.
01:16:37
◼
►
Broadcom alone.
01:16:38
◼
►
Finally, for this, I just had a favorite thing that Tim Cook said that
01:16:42
◼
►
I thought was funny.
01:16:44
◼
►
And uh I put it in my piece at six colors, but I want
01:16:46
◼
►
to read it here.
01:16:47
◼
►
Somebody asked about the price increases, right?
01:16:49
◼
►
You you and I have talked about this.
01:16:50
◼
►
Mike and I have talked about it on the show.
01:16:52
◼
►
It's like, if you're Apple, how do you choose?
01:16:54
◼
►
What's your methodology for choosing to raise the Apple TV by that, or raise
01:16:58
◼
►
the the the iPad mini by that, and raise the the MacBook Air by
01:17:03
◼
►
And somebody asked him, and so Cook said, in terms of our philosophy on
01:17:09
◼
►
dollars or percentages, we look at units, revenue, and margin, and then come to
01:17:14
◼
►
a business judgment as to how to handle that.
01:17:14
◼
►
And so it's not a mathematical formula that gets us to a specific result.
01:17:22
◼
►
We're just looking at one dimension of that.
01:17:24
◼
►
We look at all three dimensions and think about it over the long term
01:17:28
◼
►
instead of a 90-day clock.
01:17:30
◼
►
Hopefully that helps.
01:17:32
◼
►
And I'm like, I felt like Morpheus was explaining the matrix to me a
01:17:37
◼
►
One can think of it three-dimensionally.
01:17:39
◼
►
You've been thinking, get out of your two-dimensional perspective.
01:17:41
◼
►
Or it's like Captain Kirk realizing that Khan is not going to go up
01:17:45
◼
►
and down, that he's thinking in two dimensions.
01:17:47
◼
►
It's that Tim Cook is playing 3D chess out here.
01:17:50
◼
►
He's playing 3D chess.
01:17:52
◼
►
I I laughed at that.
01:17:54
◼
►
And I also thought, I don't know if you thought to like this as
01:17:57
◼
►
well, Jason, but I was like, it's Tim's last call.
01:17:59
◼
►
And it seems fitting that everything is about the supply chain.
01:18:03
◼
►
Like, uh send him off to play the hits, right?
01:18:05
◼
►
This is Tim Cook's opportunity.
01:18:07
◼
►
He's like, ah, I this is a pitch right down the middle for me.
01:18:11
◼
►
This is my jam.
01:18:12
◼
►
Uh, and if you ask John Turnis about anything, he'll just smile and nod
01:18:17
◼
►
and say uh two lines of platitudes, which I thought was also my favorite
01:18:22
◼
►
Turnis was on the call and he didn't say a word.
01:18:24
◼
►
And then as we're getting toward the end, somebody is like, hey John, how
01:18:26
◼
►
do you feel about all this?
01:18:27
◼
►
And he's like, hey, everybody, great to be here.
01:18:30
◼
►
I believe everything that Tim says is great.
01:18:31
◼
►
And I'll see you next time.
01:18:33
◼
►
And it's like, yeah, I I thought that was an amazing moment because I
01:18:36
◼
►
they there's this hesitation, right?
01:18:38
◼
►
And you're like sitting there going, like, well, they must have been prepared for
01:18:42
◼
►
someone to ask him something.
01:18:44
◼
►
He was then also, yeah.
01:18:46
◼
►
Also, also I had that moment of they're gonna be like, well, John's not
01:18:49
◼
►
really taking questions.
01:18:49
◼
►
I was like, we can't do that.
01:18:50
◼
►
He's gonna be the CEO.
01:18:51
◼
►
He needs to be able to say his legs.
01:18:53
◼
►
Uh but I thought it was a great moment of John Turnus being like,
01:18:58
◼
►
Um, Tim's moment, right?
01:19:01
◼
►
I thought that was important.
01:18:59
◼
►
No, obviously not.
01:19:03
◼
►
He's very diplomatic.
01:19:04
◼
►
I will be I am fascinated because this answered a question that we had
01:19:07
◼
►
last time, which is will John Turnus be on the calls?
01:19:09
◼
►
And the answer seems to be yes, he said.
01:19:11
◼
►
He is going to take the Tim.
01:19:12
◼
►
Yeah, like they said basically in the future, he will be taking these calls.
01:19:15
◼
►
Um fascinating.
01:19:17
◼
►
Let's be clear.
01:19:18
◼
►
Steve Jobs is not always on the calls.
01:19:21
◼
►
And I I don't blame him.
01:19:23
◼
►
I remember the the thrill.
01:19:25
◼
►
Yeah, because I have also been here, too.
01:19:27
◼
►
I don't want to, I don't want to say I've done 90 analyst calls,
01:19:30
◼
►
but I've done a lot.
01:19:31
◼
►
It's approaching that.
01:19:32
◼
►
And Tim used to run the analyst call.
01:19:35
◼
►
Um I remember the thrill when you'd get on the call and they'd be
01:19:40
◼
►
like, Steve Jobs is here and he wants to talk to you.
01:19:43
◼
►
And it's like, whoa, what is he gonna do?
01:19:44
◼
►
What's that guy gonna do now?
01:19:46
◼
►
He wants to talk to me.
01:19:47
◼
►
Well, I mean, all of us collectively.
01:19:48
◼
►
Yeah, Jason, I I will say, I think I I'm gonna tube my own
01:19:53
◼
►
my own heart a little bit, which is I think back in when I
01:19:55
◼
►
was at MacUser.com or at blog at Macworld, I think I started live blogging
01:20:01
◼
►
these financial calls because generally Macworld would have like a like a story about
01:20:05
◼
►
But like I started live blogging them, and I think that was early, fairly
01:20:09
◼
►
early on in people like actually transcribing them.
01:20:13
◼
►
Um I remember that too, like being like, Steve's here.
01:20:17
◼
►
And I felt like once Steve would show up a few times, I feel
01:20:19
◼
►
like that's when everybody else kind of also got into live vlogging it because
01:20:22
◼
►
they're like, oh, it's not just a boring financial call.
01:20:24
◼
►
Steve Jobs is here.
01:20:25
◼
►
He's doing 10 a tight 10 on whatever he's mad about this month.
01:20:30
◼
►
Yeah, absolutely.
01:20:32
◼
►
Fun, fun stuff.
01:20:33
◼
►
I also want to call out my other favorite line from this, which made
01:20:35
◼
►
me laugh as I was walking, I was like walking to the drugstore at
01:20:38
◼
►
the beach, and I'm listening to my airport.
01:20:40
◼
►
This is how messed up we are, bit, by the way, everybody.
01:20:42
◼
►
It's like for us, for us, this is like the with Tim Cook leaving,
01:20:46
◼
►
it's like a major cast member of a favorite TV show leaving.
01:20:49
◼
►
Because it's like all of these stupid financial analysts are like characters in the
01:20:55
◼
►
You get to know them over time.
01:20:57
◼
►
Uh, and here they're all saying goodbye to Tim.
01:21:00
◼
►
And then, yes, you end up in this deranged situation where you're on vacation
01:21:04
◼
►
near the beach listening to an earnings talk.
01:21:07
◼
►
Chuckling at somebody asking for some more color.
01:21:10
◼
►
Yeah, it was Kevin Perick doing the overview and saying wearables, home and accessory
01:21:13
◼
►
revenue was 7.9 billion, up 6% year of year driven by strength and wearables
01:21:17
◼
►
and accessories.
01:21:18
◼
►
And I had a moment thinking, isn't that the whole category?
01:21:22
◼
►
Like that's driven by strength and I forgot that home was there.
01:21:26
◼
►
I forgot home is a thing in that moment.
01:21:28
◼
►
Because I thought I heard him say wearables and accessory was up driven by
01:21:31
◼
►
strength and wearables and accessories.
01:21:33
◼
►
And I was like, what?
01:21:34
◼
►
No, that was a that was the uh that's their little teaser, a little
01:21:37
◼
►
foreshadowing the whole home analysis.
01:21:39
◼
►
What of home?
01:21:40
◼
►
Lurking, like the Death Star rising over Scara.
01:21:44
◼
►
Yeah, exactly.
01:21:44
◼
►
There's my Star Wars analysis.
01:21:46
◼
►
I appreciate it.
01:21:46
◼
►
I knew we I knew we'd get some Star Wars in there eventually.
01:21:51
◼
►
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Squarespace has its websites optimized to be indexed with all the things you need
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for your site to be found on Google, which is kind of important.
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let you quickly and easily build a site just for your business.
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You input basic information, and they will use their intelligence and their templates to
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build a website for you.
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That is pretty sweet.
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Go to Squarespace.com slash upgrade.
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You get a free trial.
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And when you're ready to launch, use the offer code upgrade.
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Thank you to Squarespace for supporting upgrade and all of relay.
01:23:52
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Time now for Ask Upgrade.
01:23:59
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I brought my own laser.
01:24:00
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It's a blaster.
01:24:01
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It was a blaster.
01:24:02
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I had to grab it off my shelf, but there it is.
01:24:06
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Um, real lasers flying.
01:24:09
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Or blaster bolts.
01:24:10
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Real quote unquote real lasers.
01:24:12
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In Star Wars, are those is the implication those are basically energy beams?
01:24:16
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Or do they have like little things that fly?
01:24:18
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No, there's little I it's like Bonagas that's little pellets of energy.
01:24:23
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I don't know.
01:24:24
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It's not like phasers where like a phaser beam shoots out, right?
01:24:27
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And like you see like little packets of energy.
01:24:30
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I'm not I'm sure I have a technical manual over here on my shelf
01:24:34
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And is it a wave or a particle?
01:24:36
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Nobody really knows anyway.
01:24:38
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Um Nate writes in and says, I've been holding onto my iPhone 13 mini
01:24:43
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for a while, but I feel like it may be finally time to let
01:24:45
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it go before prices increase.
01:24:47
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Jason as a former lover of the mini.
01:24:49
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I mean, I still love it.
01:24:50
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I just don't have it anymore.
01:24:51
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Will the air give the same feeling of a small phone?
01:24:54
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Or am I better off with an orange pro that has smaller overall dimensions
01:24:58
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for the screen size?
01:24:59
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John also writes in, I'm someone who's clinging desperately to my iPhone 13 mini.
01:25:03
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I'd love to know if I'm going to be completely SOL for an iPhone
01:25:07
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►
that could do Siri AI that isn't huge.
01:25:09
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I've tried larger phones and I just find that I cannot use any of
01:25:13
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them single-handed.
01:25:15
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And Joel wrote in and said, I got an iPhone 13 mini because I
01:25:18
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was getting RSI pain from trying to stretch and use a 12 Pro one-handed.
01:25:23
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Since the mini phones aren't an option anymore, I'm seriously considering going to the
01:25:26
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17 Pro Max so that it's so ridiculously large that one handed use isn't
01:25:31
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Do you think that'll work?
01:25:33
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So we have this is I'm coming out of the woodwork, Jason.
01:25:36
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13 mini roundup.
01:25:37
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Uh and I do have multiple.
01:25:40
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I don't know.
01:25:41
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It's beautiful, but I don't use it anymore.
01:25:43
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A bunch of questions.
01:25:44
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I love Joel saying maybe I should just get the largest phone possible because
01:25:51
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then I can't do that.
01:25:51
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Screen myself out of it.
01:25:53
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I kind of like that.
01:25:55
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Um that might be good.
01:25:57
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You could also get the 17 plus, which would be cheaper, but also huge.
01:26:03
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Ergonomics are weird, right?
01:26:05
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Like I didn't even realize how I type until I took video of my
01:26:10
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hands typing, and I was like, I do what?
01:26:12
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Because you just don't even think about it.
01:26:14
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And small changes can completely change how you use uh a device.
01:26:19
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So like if you can't use it one-handed, I think that's actually a pretty
01:26:23
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clever option to like make it so you can't, and then you won't.
01:26:27
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And then you won't hurt your hand, which is what was happening to Joel.
01:26:31
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Um for the others, I mean, in terms of the current products that are
01:26:35
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out there, I do love my 17 Pro.
01:26:37
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►
I was gonna mention the air.
01:26:39
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►
The air is thin and light, which is nice, but it's actually wider than
01:26:48
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►
So I think depending on your sensitivity, there's some things about the air I
01:26:52
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think are really nice.
01:26:53
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In fact, it might even be good for Joel.
01:26:56
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Um, because it it it is wider, so it's nice and light in your
01:27:00
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pocket, but then when you take it out, it's like you're using, I mean,
01:27:03
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►
it's appreciably larger than the than the 17 Pro.
01:27:06
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►
It feels it feels wider to me.
01:27:07
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►
I use it ergonomically very differently.
01:27:09
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►
I do a lot of hold it in one hand, poke with the other
01:27:12
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►
hand with that.
01:27:13
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►
Whereas on my iPhone 17 Pro, I do a lot more kind of like
01:27:16
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hold it and kind of graze with my thumb, which is that how Joel
01:27:22
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►
The the the chat is pointing out there is not a 17 plus.
01:27:26
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►
Oh, is there not?
01:27:27
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►
Oh, because it's the air.
01:27:28
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Well, you got a 16 plus.
01:27:29
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So try that.
01:27:30
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►
Pro Max Joel knows pretty good.
01:27:33
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►
Um, so I'm gonna do, Dan.
01:27:36
◼
►
Are you ready for my big brain, my Galaxy Brain idea?
01:27:39
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►
Yeah, please open up that big brain.
01:27:41
◼
►
Nate, John, Joel, galaxy Brain idea here, folding iPhone.
01:27:47
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►
I believe you mean Galaxy Brain S.
01:27:44
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►
Yeah, it could be.
01:27:50
◼
►
Galaxy Fold S brain.
01:27:54
◼
►
Yeah, in fact, because we there we now have an idea of what screen
01:27:57
◼
►
Apple's going to use because Samsung released or announced a phone that's got the
01:28:02
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►
same dimensions as the ones that everybody 3D finds.
01:28:05
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►
Because it's probably the same.
01:28:06
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►
Because they made the literally make the screens.
01:28:08
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They made the panel.
01:28:09
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►
They get to go first.
01:28:10
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It's not ideal for these guys may not want this.
01:28:14
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►
But what I will say about it is, and it's going to be wide,
01:28:17
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►
but it's not going to be tall.
01:28:19
◼
►
And it's going to be thick, right?
01:28:21
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►
Because it's a folding thing.
01:28:23
◼
►
But what I will say is it will be smaller in your pocket, and
01:28:27
◼
►
it will be small when you hold it like a phone, right?
01:28:30
◼
►
Like that's one of the issues that the Samsung phone has that the Apple
01:28:34
◼
►
phone is going to have to deal with, which is Apple has, as iPhone
01:28:38
◼
►
mini users know very well, it for a while now, apps have just assumed
01:28:42
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►
that iPhones are tall.
01:28:44
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►
And the iPhone mini, sometimes you'd use an app and you're like, uh, I
01:28:47
◼
►
can't tap that button.
01:28:49
◼
►
It's not on the screen because the phone is not that as big as
01:28:54
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►
the app thinks it is.
01:28:55
◼
►
And Apple's gonna have to deal with that.
01:28:56
◼
►
But the folded up version of the screen, it will be wide, so maybe
01:29:00
◼
►
not ideal for Joel, but it will be small in footprint.
01:29:05
◼
►
And then you can open it up and you got a little like almost
01:29:08
◼
►
iPad mini that you can use two handed, which is also a nice ergonomic
01:29:12
◼
►
I know it's gonna cost a lot of money.
01:29:13
◼
►
It's not gonna be for everybody.
01:29:15
◼
►
For the price of only three iPhone 13 minis, you can get a small
01:29:19
◼
►
phone again.
01:29:19
◼
►
Buy three of them and tape them together and see how that feels.
01:29:23
◼
►
I look forward to Apple uh announcing this as the most ergonomic iPhone they've
01:29:28
◼
►
I mean, I love my Pro Max, but if we're just talking ergonomics here,
01:29:32
◼
►
um it's worth holding an iPhone Air in your hand if you haven't, because
01:29:37
◼
►
what do you like about the mini?
01:29:39
◼
►
Is it the size?
01:29:40
◼
►
Is it the lightness?
01:29:41
◼
►
You may find a different set of trade-offs is interesting, that it's this light
01:29:45
◼
►
thin phone and it's got a big screen.
01:29:48
◼
►
Maybe that's a nicer feature.
01:29:50
◼
►
Um, I do like my iPhone 17 Pro.
01:29:53
◼
►
The idea of going and getting a Pro Max is very interesting in terms
01:29:56
◼
►
of just making it not an option to use it one-handed for Joel.
01:30:01
◼
►
And I don't know, like I am kidding, but I'm also not kidding.
01:30:06
◼
►
I wonder in the long run if the folding phone will actually be something
01:30:11
◼
►
that appeals to fans of smaller phones because when it's folded, it's small.
01:30:17
◼
►
I mean, my good pal John Moltz is a longtime mini phone stand.
01:30:22
◼
►
And I think if it were not for the price tag, I think would
01:30:25
◼
►
seriously consider it.
01:30:26
◼
►
I got a I got a payment plan for him that he should look
01:30:31
◼
►
Uh but anyway, I I I don't know.
01:30:33
◼
►
I look, as somebody who always liked the little phone, and as somebody who
01:30:37
◼
►
loves my iPad as my as my like primary personal Apple device.
01:30:43
◼
►
Like I sit at my desk and I use a Mac, right?
01:30:45
◼
►
But like when I'm not sitting at my desk, I am the iPad is
01:30:49
◼
►
primarily what I'm using.
01:30:50
◼
►
I don't, I'm I I'm not a phone primary, I'm really an iPad primary
01:30:54
◼
►
The idea that my phone could be my iPad, and I don't know if
01:30:59
◼
►
this'll work because it's going to be a small iPad, right?
01:31:02
◼
►
But like that idea s really intrigues me that I may actually be dead
01:31:07
◼
►
center at the uh at the target for this product because it would give
01:31:12
◼
►
me a phone that kind of folds up nice and little, but then it
01:31:15
◼
►
opens up and it's an iPad, gives me an iPad kind of experience.
01:31:18
◼
►
I'm intrigued.
01:31:19
◼
►
Depends how iPad y it is, yeah.
01:31:14
◼
►
It really does.
01:31:21
◼
►
I mean, yeah, I I know it's not going to do like multi-windows and
01:31:24
◼
►
It'll do split screen at most, but like, I don't know.
01:31:26
◼
►
Maybe that's enough for me.
01:31:28
◼
►
Maybe it's not.
01:31:29
◼
►
I I honestly don't know.
01:31:30
◼
►
The last two trips I've taken, by the way, I um did iPad only.
01:31:34
◼
►
Again, it's been a little while.
01:31:36
◼
►
I um that worked pretty well.
01:31:38
◼
►
I um I brought my keyboard both times so I could go into like
01:31:41
◼
►
multi-window.
01:31:42
◼
►
iPad OS 27, when you're in multi-window mode with a keyboard attached, it's it's
01:31:46
◼
►
practically like you're using a Mac.
01:31:48
◼
►
I got the windows up, I got the menu bar.
01:31:50
◼
►
It's pretty wild.
01:31:51
◼
►
I was able to do a podcast with local recording.
01:31:55
◼
►
Mm-hmm that worked pretty well.
01:31:57
◼
►
Like it it was, and it was mostly these are short trips, and I
01:32:00
◼
►
didn't I didn't need to take my laptop, so I didn't bring it because
01:32:03
◼
►
it adds a bunch that's the thing about having a MacBook Pro is it
01:32:06
◼
►
does add a lot of weight.
01:32:07
◼
►
So I have an out I have an 11-inch iPad Pro and a 13-inch
01:32:11
◼
►
MacBook Air, and the difference between them is often so close that I think
01:32:16
◼
►
to myself, maybe I'll just bring my Mac.
01:32:17
◼
►
Yeah, but that's the thing is I'm never last time.
01:32:19
◼
►
For me, I'm never gonna travel without my iPad.
01:32:22
◼
►
Like I'm never gonna take a trip with only a laptop.
01:32:25
◼
►
It's never gonna happen.
01:32:26
◼
►
I'm always because I am so iPad forward.
01:32:29
◼
►
But what if it was a phone?
01:32:30
◼
►
Anyway, we'll find out.
01:32:32
◼
►
Uh Lorenzo wrote in and said, I was listening to you talk about Siri
01:32:36
◼
►
AI and how useful it is in getting data from messages.
01:32:40
◼
►
But where I live in the Netherlands, most people use WhatsApp.
01:32:43
◼
►
Will Siri AI be able to index third party apps?
01:32:46
◼
►
Most of my useful data is in that app.
01:32:48
◼
►
Not like we can use Siri AI anytime soon here on iPhone, but I
01:32:52
◼
►
was wondering anyway.
01:32:53
◼
►
Yeah, we should mention Siri AI will work fine in the EU on the
01:32:58
◼
►
Because the Mac is not a gatekeeper platform.
01:33:00
◼
►
So you will be able to do it there.
01:32:59
◼
►
I think it is per app.
01:33:05
◼
►
You have to be indexed by Spotlight, essentially.
01:33:09
◼
►
And so that's up to WhatsApp, I think, to do that.
01:33:12
◼
►
I would think they would, though.
01:33:14
◼
►
I assume they would.
01:33:15
◼
►
I mean, I it's meta, so you got only sometimes.
01:33:19
◼
►
But uh the general, I mean, if people are using it and they get
01:33:23
◼
►
annoyed at WhatsApp for not supporting it, I think WhatsApp will support it.
01:33:26
◼
►
That's my theory.
01:33:27
◼
►
Uh, but I think they'll probably support it.
01:33:29
◼
►
Most, most people want to be relevant and implement Apple's latest features, right?
01:33:34
◼
►
They want to not look like they're lagging behind.
01:33:36
◼
►
So I I imagine I would be sh very surprised if there is not
01:33:40
◼
►
an update to WhatsApp, you know, day one release of 27.
01:33:44
◼
►
That's like we'll and use it with Siri AI.
01:33:47
◼
►
Because why wouldn't you?
01:33:49
◼
►
It's useful.
01:33:50
◼
►
I so we were in Denver over the weekend, seeing my um, it's Lawrence
01:33:54
◼
►
brother and his family, and they've got two little kids who are adorable.
01:33:58
◼
►
And we we were gonna get, we got to their house at like one
01:34:03
◼
►
in the morning.
01:34:04
◼
►
We flew late on Thursday night, got in at one in the morning.
01:34:08
◼
►
And I you I thought this is a good opportunity because we visited them
01:34:15
◼
►
a bunch of times, and they have a smart door lock with a code.
01:34:18
◼
►
So we're gonna let ourselves at one in the morning, we're letting ourselves in
01:34:21
◼
►
with the code.
01:34:22
◼
►
And I asked Siri AI, what's the code at Mike and Cayley's house?
01:34:28
◼
►
And it pulled a text message from Thanksgiving of 2025.
01:34:36
◼
►
So last year, I think, which with the code.
01:34:41
◼
►
And, you know, you then you tap and it's got the code, it's got
01:34:44
◼
►
their address in that message, which is tappable so I can just add it
01:34:44
◼
►
to Apple Maps and navigate there.
01:34:52
◼
►
Um Lauren pointed out that that's not the code they sent to her.
01:34:57
◼
►
So she's like, aha, take that Siri AI.
01:34:59
◼
►
That they must have changed the code.
01:35:00
◼
►
But then when we told this story to them, they're like, oh, that code
01:35:03
◼
►
That other code also works.
01:35:05
◼
►
So either way, Siri knew.
01:35:07
◼
►
But um that's that's the stuff, right?
01:35:10
◼
►
Like it's stuff like that where you're like, I know that they sent us
01:35:14
◼
►
It was probably in messages.
01:35:16
◼
►
I said Mike and Kaylee to give it just enough information that they would,
01:35:20
◼
►
and then it said, I'm searching your mail, now I'm searching your messages, and
01:35:23
◼
►
it's like, oh, I found it.
01:35:24
◼
►
Here it is, there's the code.
01:35:25
◼
►
And it totally, that was the code.
01:35:26
◼
►
So um it's it's good.
01:35:29
◼
►
You know, it doesn't always work, but being able to plumb the depths of
01:35:33
◼
►
your mail and messages alone plus other apps is gonna be great.
01:35:37
◼
►
It is, it is pretty killer when it works.
01:35:39
◼
►
I mean, not perfect, but uh, you know, the I find myself turning to
01:35:43
◼
►
it for things that I would have turned to chat GPT or Claw.
01:35:47
◼
►
For that stuff, for the basic like knowledge lookup stuff.
01:35:51
◼
►
I I had this moment the other day.
01:35:53
◼
►
I was walking down the hill to pick up my kid from daycare, and
01:35:55
◼
►
I looked over as I'm looking down the hill, and you can see the
01:35:58
◼
►
prudential center, which is one of the tallest buildings in Boston, Boston, from from
01:36:02
◼
►
where I was walking down the hill.
01:36:03
◼
►
And I just kind of idly was thinking, it's like, I wonder how far
01:36:06
◼
►
I can see it from here.
01:36:07
◼
►
And I was walking with my AirPods in, and I just asked, like, hey,
01:36:10
◼
►
how far away is the prudential center from where I am right now?
01:36:13
◼
►
And it's like, oh, it's 3.1 miles away or something.
01:36:16
◼
►
I was like, Seems a little far.
01:36:18
◼
►
I said, How far is it as the crow flies?
01:36:20
◼
►
And it gave me a short, oh, as the crow flies, it's 2.4 miles
01:36:24
◼
►
or something.
01:36:25
◼
►
And I was like, that was a wild interaction I just had with a
01:36:28
◼
►
robot walking down the hill.
01:36:29
◼
►
Didn't even break my stride.
01:36:30
◼
►
I just talked to it on my AirPods.
01:36:32
◼
►
It was very, very cool.
01:36:34
◼
►
Crows are very efficient, you see.
01:36:40
◼
►
Well, uh, that brings us to the end of this show.
01:36:42
◼
►
But before we go, I wanted to point out you can hear me and
01:36:46
◼
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Dan talking about stuff on Fridays in a podcast by becoming a six colors
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member at sixcolors.com slash subscribe.
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People like it.
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Big big show.
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We don't have we don't have notes.
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Sometimes I'm doing laundry.
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It's pretty, it's chill.
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It's just like a hangout.
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Yeah, we're just what happened this week.
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What are we doing?
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Dan hosts Clockwise here at Relay.
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And uh the rebound, as mentioned with John Moltz and Lex Friedman at Rebound.
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Even the more iconic trio.
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Reboundcast.com.
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And thanks to Lex for the Apple Money song, by the way, as always.
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And if you missed Mike and you missed my interactions with Mike, I have
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great news for you.
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I will be a guest on the Connected program this week, later this week,
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with Mike and Steven.
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Filling in for Federico.
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So check that out.
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I will have less to say about AI than Federico does.
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Everybody take one seat to the left and be on a different podcast.
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It seems like that.
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Well, I was on clockwise last week.
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I think I'm on clockwise next week.
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So yeah, congratulations.
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This is vacation time.
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It is summer of fun.
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Summer of the uh anyway, you can send uh feedback here.
01:38:02
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Follow up, questions, Snelltalk, upgrade feedback.com is the place to do that.
01:38:06
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Thank you to our members who support us with Upgrade Plus.
01:38:09
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This week we are going to be talking about the XT Inc.
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weird e-readers that are getting better and better all the time.
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Uh getUpgradePlus.com.
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Find us on YouTube by searching for Upgrade Podcast.
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Thanks once again to our sponsors, Factor, Squarespace, and Backblaze.
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But most of all, thanks to you for listening.
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Until we meet again, Dan, say goodbye.
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Goodbye, Jason.