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148: Your Feelings Are Real

 

00:00:00   Was looking at something and then it jumped away. Is that the kind of experience you want to provide me?

00:00:04   Paul loft said that there is actually a term just like there is for everything in business like parking lot and

00:00:11   Aug or staff aug or whatever the hell we're gonna talk about for the concept. I think I described on an earlier show

00:00:18   people in middle management are

00:00:21   motivated to

00:00:22   Make things that are bad not sound quite as bad when they talk to their boss because if you're telling your bass boss bad news

00:00:28   Your boss will be like, "Well, why is this bad news happening?

00:00:30   Isn't the reason we pay you to make bad things not happen?"

00:00:34   And so as it goes up the management chain, say you start with the truth down at the leaf

00:00:38   nodes, by the time it gets to the CEO, what is a disastrous problem doesn't sound so bad.

00:00:43   And the term for that is green shifting, which is a play on red shifting, just like the galaxies

00:00:47   are racing away from us and the wavelengths of light coming from stretch towards the red

00:00:50   side of the visible light spectrum, so all the galaxies or stars and stuff are red shifted.

00:00:55   Green shifting is how things get nicer as they go up the org chart.

00:00:59   So that's a great term.

00:01:00   I had not heard it before.

00:01:02   But it's a real thing.

00:01:03   I had not heard that either.

00:01:05   I never heard it.

00:01:07   You can use green shifting.

00:01:09   Your org chart at home isn't quite deep enough.

00:01:11   Maybe when Hopps does something terrible outside, like rolls in something gross, when you report

00:01:16   it to Adam, you can say, "Oh, Hopps just got a little dirty."

00:01:19   And then when Adam reports it to Tiff, she's at the top of the org chart, by the way.

00:01:22   had a report that said, "Hops had fun outside," and then voila, "Hops eating cat poo had

00:01:28   been green-shifted." That honestly pretty much happens like that, I think. That really

00:01:34   is very plausible of a situation to happen and how it would be communicated in our household.

00:01:38   All right, what did Rafael write in? Oh, this is an interesting take on something

00:01:43   that we talked about last episode about, you know, what can Apple do about software quality

00:01:47   and having like snow leopard releases where you just work on bugs and stuff and the concept

00:01:52   of yearly releases came up.

00:01:54   And what I was arguing was like, it's really arbitrary if you're a disciplined software

00:01:58   organization as Apple has become in these last few years.

00:02:01   All you're doing is changing the discipline from like working on something until it's

00:02:06   done, but just sticking to a schedule and saying what is in and what is out for that

00:02:10   schedule and anything that's out gets pushed to the next release and so on and so forth,

00:02:14   and that's fine.

00:02:15   And Rafael gave the example that I should have thought of that is true for a lot of

00:02:21   the software we use today, instead of doing fewer releases,

00:02:26   how about doing more releases, as in continuous release,

00:02:28   kind of like Chrome or these other browsers

00:02:30   that they call Evergreen, they're sort of like

00:02:32   mandatory auto updating, and you don't really care

00:02:35   what the version is, like none of us know offhand

00:02:37   what Chrome version we're on, we're on whatever

00:02:38   the latest is, and Chrome updates all the time,

00:02:40   and it updates whenever the hell it feels like it.

00:02:43   If instead of having yearly releases and saying,

00:02:46   well, that's too much of a rush, make them two year,

00:02:49   get rid of the whole concept of like this big important release that's worthy of a press

00:02:54   release and bullet points and instead just do small incremental changes all the time.

00:02:58   I think Jeff Atwood had an article about this a couple years ago called "The Infinite Version"

00:03:03   but it's basically the same thing that most people are familiar with from the world of

00:03:05   web browsers where version stops mattering and it's just the software exists and it continuously

00:03:11   updates itself and hopefully gets better and that's a different mindset where you're making

00:03:18   lots of small changes, which are easier to make, and the consequences of screwing it

00:03:22   up are smaller, because then you're sure you know what it is screwed it up.

00:03:26   Like if you made one small change and all of a sudden there was some huge performance

00:03:30   regression and some DOM operation like happened with Chrome 43 recently, you know what change

00:03:36   did that, and you can, A, you have the option of just rolling it back, because it's just

00:03:40   one small change from the previous version, and B, you have a better chance of fixing

00:03:44   it because you know exactly what small thing it was.

00:03:46   So if you make a series of small changes over time,

00:03:48   it's potentially better for your customers

00:03:51   and also better for you in terms of knowing

00:03:55   what you've done to screw things up.

00:03:56   So I kind of like this idea

00:03:57   and looking at the software that we use,

00:04:00   more and more of it, I mean, just think of iOS

00:04:02   where you started to do updates, apps manually,

00:04:05   then they became auto updating.

00:04:07   We're not quite at the infinite version

00:04:08   for all software available,

00:04:10   but moving away from like what I would call

00:04:12   marketing releases, where the only reason

00:04:13   have a big thing, it's kind of like a tradition or a holdover from when you bought things

00:04:19   in cardboard boxes, and of course there had to be a big deal because you'd have to put

00:04:22   a new set of cardboard boxes with new art on the cover.

00:04:25   Doing yearly digital releases is really just kind of a holdover from that, and it seems

00:04:30   like the trend is away from that and more towards continuous releases, and I'm intrigued

00:04:35   by this idea and I like to subscribe to this newsletter.

00:04:40   The upside, I said they're only doing these regular releases for marketing purposes, but

00:04:44   marketing is not nothing.

00:04:47   If Apple was to move to a continuous release cycle for major products, that means it gives

00:04:52   up the perk of being able to make grand announcements at WWDC or at some kind of press conference

00:04:59   where they invite the press out to show them something.

00:05:02   You can't get that anymore.

00:05:03   You don't get the big bump in the press.

00:05:04   You don't get the "Apple Today" announce, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:05:07   Maybe they get that less with software than hardware, but there is a downside to this.

00:05:13   And part of the reason Apple keeps doing these marketing releases is because it's worth it

00:05:17   to them to get the extra hype and publicity and get people excited and seem to make significant

00:05:24   progress.

00:05:25   That's a lot of what we love about Apple.

00:05:26   It's like one day they appear and they say, "Hey, we've got this great idea.

00:05:29   And look at this new thing."

00:05:30   And we go, "Ooh, look at the new thing."

00:05:32   If we got that same thing in 700 steps, you know, instead of in one big bang, it's less

00:05:39   impressive even though we end up at the same spot.

00:05:40   So I think that definitely has to be a factor.

00:05:43   I still think it's worth it, but that's a calculus they'd have to do internally if they

00:05:47   ever wanted to move to this type of system for software release.

00:05:50   All right.

00:05:52   And Eric Michaels-Over had some interesting thoughts on iPhone battery thinness.

00:05:56   Yes.

00:05:57   So last week we were talking about the battery case, and I of course complained, as I always

00:06:01   that the iPhone battery life is not good enough.

00:06:03   And one of the theories presented was

00:06:05   that maybe the battery case was kind of like

00:06:07   Apple filling out the market for a little more info

00:06:11   on whether people really do want more battery life

00:06:13   in their iPhones in order to inform future decisions

00:06:16   about the iPhone designs.

00:06:18   And our friend Eric Michael Zuber wrote in to point out

00:06:20   that by this time, the iPhone 7 is almost certainly

00:06:23   already completely done and designed.

00:06:26   The new iPhone battery case is a signal

00:06:28   that the battery life for the iPhone 7

00:06:29   will probably be the same or worse

00:06:31   than the iPhone 6 and 6s. If Apple had waited until the inevitably thinner iPhone 7 were

00:06:35   released next year to introduce a battery case, the press would have jumped on them

00:06:39   saying it proved battery life in the iPhone 7 to be inadequate. Now if Apple releases

00:06:43   a new battery case for the iPhone 7, Apple battery cases will be old news because they

00:06:47   of course just released this one for the iPhone 6. In other words, this is the first Apple

00:06:51   battery case, not the last. So that's, that, all that from our friend Eric Michael Zuber,

00:06:55   I think that is pretty much on point. I think he's almost certainly right that the 7 is

00:06:59   almost certainly done or close enough to done that they wouldn't be making major changes

00:07:04   to things like how large the battery is because that's a pretty major physical change to a

00:07:08   design. I'm guessing this is maybe not quite planned out quite that well but more like

00:07:16   the battery case seems like a band-aid solution. It seems like something that Apple did not

00:07:20   expect maybe even one year ago to be making and releasing now but that they identified

00:07:27   a problem slash opportunity and made it to address that.

00:07:31   But I think he's right that they probably are not going

00:07:34   to be meaningfully addressing battery life in the iPhone 7.

00:07:37   And if they were, they probably wouldn't have released this

00:07:39   because the iPhone 7's gonna be out in, you know,

00:07:42   what, seven or eight months, nine months?

00:07:44   So Apple's very patient.

00:07:47   And so if they were really gonna address this problem

00:07:49   in the iPhone 7 and give us a big chunk

00:07:51   of battery life improvement, they probably wouldn't release

00:07:54   a battery case today, or at least it would make it

00:07:57   a lot less likely that they would. So I think he's right, and I think we're going to have

00:08:01   to live with it. That people who want more battery power are either going to go to the

00:08:05   plus or just use external battery cases or battery packs.

00:08:09   Lewis: This theory only works if you assume Apple is the only company in the world that

00:08:12   makes iPhone accessories. Battery cases have been a thing forever. Like I said, there is

00:08:17   no additional weight for Apple making a battery case that Apple is saying. They sell battery

00:08:22   cases in their stores. People use them all the time. It's a thing. Apple is just making

00:08:26   one of them because it finally got around to making one of them.

00:08:28   Of course the iPhone 7 is going to be thinner.

00:08:31   Of course it's going to be.

00:08:33   That's the way it goes, right?

00:08:34   And it's predicting that the battery life will be similar.

00:08:37   Well, it's been similar for many years now, so that's not a big surprise either.

00:08:41   I just don't make the leap all the way to therefore releasing this early is a way to

00:08:45   avoid appearing to say that the iPhone 7 doesn't have good battery life.

00:08:49   It's going to have the same as the 6 and the 6s within a small margin of error, and yeah,

00:08:54   going to be thinner because that's what Apple does with iPhones. I think it's just status

00:08:58   quo and a lot of people are pointing out also that like saying, "Oh, Apple makes a battery

00:09:02   case that will let them know more information about who buys battery cases." But if they

00:09:06   sell them in their stores, they already have that information. So they could be charting

00:09:10   the battery cases that they sell themselves from third parties just as well as they can

00:09:14   be charting their own. So I think Apple has a pretty good feel of who wants a battery

00:09:18   case and what sizes are the most popular and it just made one for the same reason.

00:09:24   It makes a leather case and a silicone case and cases for your iPads and all the other

00:09:30   accessories they make because it's things that people want to buy and Apple will make

00:09:33   one for you and you can buy it from them.

00:09:35   And their margins are probably better than anyone else's because they get good pricing

00:09:39   on parts and they charge like $10 or $20 more bucks than everyone else for their little

00:09:42   logo.

00:09:43   It is also worth considering, you know, the rumors are getting pretty strong. There's

00:09:48   a lot of smoke and even some evidence now that there will be a new 4-inch iPhone design

00:09:54   soon. We don't know how soon. Maybe it's in the spring, maybe it's in the fall, who

00:09:57   knows. It doesn't matter that much, to be honest. But there is certainly a lot of smoke

00:10:03   by these rumors, so there is very likely to be fire here. This is very likely to be a

00:10:07   real thing that is happening, and it makes a lot of sense for them to make a new 4-inch

00:10:10   phone. If the rumors are true, the 4-inch phone will have the approximate internals

00:10:15   of the iPhone 6s. Now, if you look at any kind of battery life graph for the iPhones,

00:10:23   there was actually a noticeable jump from the 5s to the 6. And we saw this for years

00:10:29   beforehand with Android phones that were all bigger than all the iPhones. That when you

00:10:33   make a big phone, you have room for more battery. The reason why the 6 Plus gets more battery

00:10:38   life is because it has a battery that's something like 50% larger than the 6 because there's

00:10:42   room for it without making it too obscenely thick or too weirdly heavy for its proportional

00:10:49   size.

00:10:50   And it outruns the screen. Like the screen got bigger too and the screen takes more power,

00:10:53   but the more battery outruns the more screen. So the bigger you make it, the more the battery

00:10:58   wins.

00:10:59   Exactly. So it does look very likely there will be a 4-inch phone, but if we follow that

00:11:05   advantage now then backwards back to making four inch phones again a

00:11:08   four inch phone with Apple's current

00:11:11   priorities for thinness and and the expectation like the 5s is way thicker than the 6 and the 6 still has more battery life than

00:11:19   It just because of that of you know the ratio of the volume now

00:11:21   They're not going to make a new four inch phone. That's as thick as the 5s again. It would of course be thinner

00:11:27   It would probably be more like the iPod touch or even not that then but because of radios

00:11:32   videos, but it would probably be more like the 6s thickness, but just in a smaller body.

00:11:38   That small 4-inch phone, assuming it's real and assuming it's coming out soon, and assuming

00:11:42   it has the guts of a 6s, would probably get pretty mediocre battery life. Even worse than

00:11:47   the 6s, I would guess.

00:11:49   Well, there's a, I mean the other tool that they have at their disposal, which they've

00:11:51   been leveraging, is make the stuff inside the phone take less power. So, one thing is

00:11:56   obviously if they do, you know, another process shrink on the main system on a chip, that's

00:12:02   savings there. The other rumor that I've been reading about, probably not for the iPhone

00:12:06   7, but it's a thing to think about for the future, is moving to OLED for the screens,

00:12:10   which is another power savings. And you have to think, what is left that's taking power

00:12:13   in the phones? Well, there's send and receive for the cell signal, which I'm not entirely

00:12:18   sure how much you can do about that, because at a certain point you have to have a signal

00:12:21   of a certain strength just to talk to the towers and stuff. So there's that, there's

00:12:25   the screen, and there's the increasingly small number of chips on the thing, most dominated

00:12:31   by the system on a chip and maybe I guess the RAM.

00:12:34   And so you get your biggest bang for the buck

00:12:37   of making the screen take less power,

00:12:39   making the system on a chip take less power.

00:12:40   And that's what Apple has always been doing over time.

00:12:43   And so that is their tool to perhaps eventually outrun

00:12:48   getting thinner over time, right?

00:12:54   So far they've just been kind of like on this knife's edge.

00:12:56   And I think you're right that they're not gonna make

00:12:59   the four inch one as big as the 5S

00:13:01   and therefore it will probably get worse.

00:13:02   Certainly it will get worse battery life

00:13:04   than the 6, 6S size phone.

00:13:05   Certainly that.

00:13:06   Will it get worse than the 5S?

00:13:08   Well it's gonna have a way more power efficient system

00:13:10   on a chip than the 5S did.

00:13:12   But then again, I don't know.

00:13:13   They could underclock it.

00:13:14   They have tools at their disposal

00:13:16   to essentially pick the battery life.

00:13:18   But I don't think it's crazy to say

00:13:19   that the smaller phone is gonna get less,

00:13:22   is gonna have lower battery life just in general.

00:13:24   - Right, and that also, if you assume all this to be true

00:13:27   that we are speculating on here,

00:13:29   That also is more explanation why Apple would want to get into the battery case market now

00:13:34   and kind of get prepared for it.

00:13:36   And then when they release a new iPhone 6 minus or whatever, whenever they release this

00:13:42   new small phone, then Apple already makes battery cases and this is a thing that you

00:13:48   can do.

00:13:49   If you need more battery life than what we offer, it isn't a design flaw.

00:13:53   You could just buy this accessory that we make for this phone that will be smart and

00:13:56   right there available at launch time.

00:13:58   So I think it makes a lot of sense,

00:14:00   looking at the most likely reasons

00:14:03   why they made this battery case.

00:14:05   And as we said last week,

00:14:07   and as other people have pointed out,

00:14:09   and especially our friend John Gruber,

00:14:11   it really is not a terrible product.

00:14:13   It's just a little bit weird,

00:14:14   and it's not that great to look at,

00:14:17   and it has a few questionable design aspects to it,

00:14:19   but the functionality of it, everyone says,

00:14:22   seems to be pretty decent.

00:14:23   On that note, I wanna do a quick bit of follow-up

00:14:26   On my Sola memo case that I ordered during last week's show on an impulse buy, I actually

00:14:31   got a chance to use it for a few days over the last week.

00:14:35   And first of all, it's not MFI certified.

00:14:37   So what that means is that Apple has not given it the "Made for iPhone" stamp of approval.

00:14:43   It basically means that Apple has not certified it to be compatible and safe and everything

00:14:48   else to use with iPhones.

00:14:49   So there's some risk involved here.

00:14:52   And if I were using a case every single day,

00:14:55   I might reconsider using one that was not MFI certified.

00:14:58   And it's weird, like the lightning connector

00:15:01   on the inside that it uses to plug into the phone,

00:15:03   it's obviously like not a real Apple lightning plug.

00:15:06   This is obviously like a knockoff.

00:15:08   In every way, it's a knockoff.

00:15:11   That's one of the reasons why it is shaped

00:15:14   unlike any other iPhone connector I've ever seen,

00:15:16   where in the way it kind of like,

00:15:18   it kind of like moves the lightning port down

00:15:20   So it charges through lightning and it has no chin.

00:15:24   It's the only battery case I've found that has no chin.

00:15:27   Not even Apple manages to do that,

00:15:28   but there's probably some good reason why

00:15:31   within the MFI spec other people can't do that

00:15:33   and be MFI certified.

00:15:34   Probably something about how much stress it can take

00:15:37   or what kind of design it has to have

00:15:38   or how much thickness something has to be or something.

00:15:40   Overall, it is surprisingly thin and light.

00:15:44   It is not as thin as the Apple leather case or anything.

00:15:48   you do notice that it does add thickness,

00:15:51   but it doesn't add a lot of size.

00:15:53   And so it actually feels pretty good to use.

00:15:55   It does not feel intrusive in the pocket.

00:15:57   It's almost like an iPhone 3G/3GS plastic.

00:16:01   Feels pretty good to grip in the hand.

00:16:03   It is dumb though.

00:16:04   Like so, trying another battery case

00:16:07   has made me now appreciate what Apple says

00:16:09   when they call theirs the smart battery case.

00:16:12   You know, this one, you have to turn it on

00:16:15   and turn it off manually.

00:16:16   It does not turn itself off when the phone reaches 100%,

00:16:20   or when it's down to zero, whatever.

00:16:23   It doesn't do anything smart.

00:16:24   It is literally just like you manually apply power

00:16:27   to your phone when you feel like it,

00:16:29   and then you turn it off when you feel like

00:16:31   your phone has charged enough.

00:16:33   So it is dumb, it is cheap, it is not MFI certified.

00:16:37   That being said, it does work, it is really small,

00:16:40   and it is really light, and it feels good in the hand.

00:16:42   So I think I'm gonna bring it to conferences and stuff

00:16:44   for the next nine months or so until the next phone comes out,

00:16:47   and asked me again how it is after WVDC.

00:16:50   - Yeah, we'll check your pockets for smoke

00:16:51   while you're not packing up.

00:16:52   - Yeah. (laughing)

00:16:53   No, I mean, the first time I charged it,

00:16:55   I was intentionally doing it during a long car ride

00:16:58   the other day so that I could feel if it was getting too hot,

00:17:01   like I could feel it easily.

00:17:02   - Yeah, this is the best place to have a fire

00:17:04   as a moving car, you're right, that was a good plan.

00:17:06   - Yeah, yeah, totally.

00:17:07   So anyway, yeah, not terrible.

00:17:10   I would say for 50 bucks, it is reasonably priced,

00:17:13   And I wouldn't necessarily recommend it

00:17:16   just because I'm a little scared

00:17:17   that because it is not certified

00:17:19   and because it is very knock-offy,

00:17:21   I'm a little scared of what it might do to someone's phone,

00:17:23   but I'm willing to take the risk on my own phone.

00:17:25   So that's its usefulness.

00:17:27   And I think I would rather carry this than the 6 Plus

00:17:31   because I've determined the 6 Plus

00:17:33   to be too large for me most of the time.

00:17:35   I would rather carry this than the 6 Plus.

00:17:37   We'll see what happens with the 7 Design.

00:17:38   - And would you bring this instead of your little

00:17:42   pocket thing with the little attached USB cable,

00:17:45   you know, your little pocket battery thing?

00:17:48   - The pocket battery thing is gonna have a much longer life

00:17:51   because the pocket battery thing is gonna work

00:17:53   with the iPhone 7 and this won't.

00:17:54   You know, that one, and that one's also half the price

00:17:57   and a little more capacity, up in 3,000 milliamp hours.

00:18:00   That's the volt ready, something ultra slim,

00:18:02   something something with a built-in lightning cable,

00:18:04   which is awesome.

00:18:05   You know, that one's 25 bucks.

00:18:06   I still, I would, and that one I think is MFI certified,

00:18:09   so I would definitely recommend that one

00:18:10   if you're looking for one to buy.

00:18:11   But if you want an actual battery case

00:18:14   and not a separate thing that you have to carry around

00:18:16   and occasionally plug into your phone,

00:18:18   this is a decent case.

00:18:19   But if you're gonna be using it that rarely,

00:18:21   I might even say go with Apple just because

00:18:24   it's officially supported and a little bit smarter.

00:18:26   But I don't regret buying it for my very limited needs

00:18:29   out of a battery case 'cause usually I don't use a case,

00:18:32   a battery case, and for the few weeks a year

00:18:35   that I really want one, this'll probably be fine.

00:18:38   But if you're gonna use it every day,

00:18:39   I would say maybe get an MFI certified one.

00:18:42   - Yeah, that sounds like a smart idea.

00:18:43   Alright, why don't you tell us about something

00:18:45   that's awesome.

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00:20:57   - All right, so what are we really talking about tonight?

00:21:00   Do you wanna talk about how the Apple TV

00:21:02   is making no money for app developers,

00:21:03   like every other app store on the platforms.

00:21:06   (laughing)

00:21:07   Actually, no, no, no, let me try that again.

00:21:10   Would you like to talk about the challenges

00:21:12   that are facing Apple TV developers?

00:21:14   I'm trying to take a more positive spin on this.

00:21:17   So let's talk about this.

00:21:19   - This is something that, you know, in recent weeks,

00:21:22   we've been very critical of some stuff Apple has done.

00:21:24   I have heard all year from people calling me out

00:21:27   for being too negative about Apple and everything,

00:21:30   and we've gotten a little bit of that with the whole show.

00:21:32   It's been a lot on me, though.

00:21:33   And that's fair, 'cause I have been very negative

00:21:35   about Apple, and I wanted to kind of explain

00:21:38   a little bit about why.

00:21:39   So this Tux Arcade article that came out

00:21:41   about two weeks ago, editor's note,

00:21:43   "The Popular Games in the Apple TV App Store

00:21:45   "Making $100 a Day or Less, A Worrying Trend Appears."

00:21:48   And the whole article is, I mean, it's pretty ranty,

00:21:52   and it isn't all fair criticism,

00:21:55   but there is a lot of fair criticism in it.

00:21:58   And I think it's worth considering for both Apple,

00:22:02   not that they will care or read it,

00:22:04   but for both Apple and for Apple developers like us,

00:22:07   it is worth considering some of these things

00:22:08   and kind of how that relates to Apple negativity.

00:22:12   And there was also a really good episode

00:22:14   of Control Walt Delete, which is a podcast

00:22:18   with Neil A. Patel and Walt Mossberg.

00:22:20   There was an episode, I think this week,

00:22:22   I'll link to it in the show,

00:22:23   and it's about kind of like being disappointed

00:22:26   with modern tech and kind of being burnt out

00:22:28   on like where modern tech is going

00:22:30   and whether we're in a slow period of true innovation.

00:22:35   And so I think all this combines with what I perceive

00:22:40   with Apple's current problems of just,

00:22:43   there's a lot of stuff that's at a 1.0 state,

00:22:47   or that's being pretty clearly neglected for a long time.

00:22:52   I think what has happened is we had such massive years

00:22:57   of advancement over the last decade.

00:23:00   so much advancement, even the last two decades really, there's been so much advancement in

00:23:04   computing, so much advancement in the web, in phones, in apps, and how we compute, what

00:23:09   we compute on, all the various options we have, how good the hardware is, how good the

00:23:14   software is, how good the services are. We have made tremendous strides. But I think

00:23:19   over the last, I don't know, three to five years, I think we have picked so much of the

00:23:26   low-hanging fruit already in technology. That yes, there are things we can keep doing to

00:23:35   keep making things better and to keep uncovering new ground, but I think it's getting harder.

00:23:40   And the number of asterisks that you have to accept on everything seems to be getting

00:23:46   larger. Because again, we've done so much of the easy stuff already, and that's not

00:23:51   to say there isn't anything left to do, but I think the gains are going to be harder

00:23:56   to get. So for example, if we narrow this down, this is obviously a big sprawling feeling

00:24:00   that's hard to nail down. So let me focus it down for now to the Apple product line.

00:24:04   We are now at the point where the hardware is so capable that we are mostly just limited

00:24:10   by like dumb physical attributes. How big are we willing to make the thing so that we

00:24:16   can have a screen that's big enough to see or touch or keyboard that's big enough to

00:24:19   actually use. I think what we're seeing is like once we start pushing these boundaries

00:24:25   of well, what if we want to do more on our iPads? Or what if we want to make our laptops

00:24:30   even smaller and even lighter? What if we want to compute on our wrist? We keep having

00:24:35   to add these asterisks. Like, in order to compute on our wrist, we had to have this

00:24:39   weird little computer with this weird interface on it that can do some things but is really

00:24:44   slow and is kind of nice for some things but has to work over Bluetooth which is really

00:24:47   unreliable and there's all this weird stuff. What we see with laptops is, oh, well, you

00:24:52   wanted to push it so small and so light and so thin that now it has to be really slow

00:24:56   and we have to get rid of all the ports which do occasionally come in handy and also the

00:25:00   keyboard has to be this really controversial, very ultra-thin design that has a lot of problems

00:25:05   for a lot of people. And with the iPad Pro, this is this amazing device for people who

00:25:10   do productive work on their iPad, but it's so big that you kind of can't hold it like

00:25:16   you used to hold an iPad and you might not be able to do a lot of things that other iPads

00:25:21   can do very easily with it because it's so big.

00:25:23   And so we're starting to hit these areas in which

00:25:26   we're just hitting trade-offs left and right.

00:25:28   Like everything has asterisks on it,

00:25:30   everything has exceptions.

00:25:33   In the olden days we would have a smaller number

00:25:35   of more generalized products.

00:25:38   You know, you would have a Mac.

00:25:40   And whether you got like an iBook or a Power Mac G5,

00:25:44   they could do roughly the same kinds of things.

00:25:47   It would just like, you know, how fast do you want it,

00:25:48   how much space do you need, that kind of stuff.

00:25:51   Now we're getting these products that are differentiated

00:25:55   not by minor spec details like that,

00:25:58   but by massive differences in how they can be used,

00:26:01   what they can do, what they can't do,

00:26:03   or what they're really difficult to do with.

00:26:07   And so it just seems like we're fragmenting everything.

00:26:10   In the process we're starting a lot of things

00:26:12   with weird 1.0s, we are ignoring a lot of other things

00:26:16   'cause it's too much to manage.

00:26:18   We're kind of ignoring the old and boring stuff.

00:26:20   So there is a lot being lost here,

00:26:23   and now it's to the point where people have to struggle

00:26:25   to figure out how to do basic things

00:26:27   on the newest hardware that we have

00:26:29   that we were able to do on computers years ago

00:26:31   because the newest hardware is so much better

00:26:32   in certain ways that it's really compelling

00:26:34   to carry or to use or whatever.

00:26:35   I feel like we are now at a point where

00:26:39   there are so many trade-offs being made

00:26:42   to achieve what we think is next,

00:26:44   to achieve where we wanna go next

00:26:46   or the kind of hardware we wanna be carrying around

00:26:49   using, there are so many trade-offs now that in a lot of ways a lot of things are just

00:26:54   getting worse or more cumbersome or more complicated or kind of less baked.

00:27:00   And we're seeing weird products like these weird laptop/tablet hybrids that are trying

00:27:05   to cross these lines and kind of not doing a great job of it oftentimes.

00:27:11   And I don't know, it feels like there's a lot of weirdness in the product line.

00:27:16   There's a lot more saying no to things you can do

00:27:20   with these products rather than like,

00:27:22   as I said before, you go buy a computer

00:27:24   and anything you can do in the world of computing

00:27:26   you can do on a computer before.

00:27:28   Now that's no longer the case.

00:27:29   In the early days of smartphones,

00:27:30   you go and you buy the iPhone

00:27:32   and you have the best smartphone, period.

00:27:33   Like that was it.

00:27:34   Now it isn't so simple anymore.

00:27:36   Now do you also want an iPad or not?

00:27:38   Do you also want a watch or not?

00:27:41   There's so much variation now

00:27:44   and in some ways that's good.

00:27:45   you can specialize, you can make amazing hardware

00:27:47   for certain roles, but in so many other ways,

00:27:50   we are forced to make all these trade-offs

00:27:53   that we didn't have to make before.

00:27:54   And anyway, this is all very long and rambling,

00:27:57   but getting back to it, the reason why I keep

00:28:00   criticizing stuff when I feel that it's warranted,

00:28:04   that when I feel like it's important,

00:28:06   is because this is like where I do everything.

00:28:09   This is my life, this is my hobby, this is my work,

00:28:12   this is my career, I do everything.

00:28:15   everything I do, I do with Apple products,

00:28:17   with my computer, with my phone, with all this stuff.

00:28:21   When anything about them gets worse,

00:28:23   or when the future of them gets called into question,

00:28:26   I don't wanna go to desktop Linux or Windows.

00:28:29   This is where I get my work done.

00:28:31   So I get very defensive of them,

00:28:32   and when I see Apple spreading themselves very thin,

00:28:37   trying to do all these different things

00:28:39   to try to figure out what the next version of computing is,

00:28:42   so that they can dictate that and own that

00:28:45   and figure that out.

00:28:47   I'm sitting here with my version of computing

00:28:49   that has worked great for decades

00:28:51   and I get a little defensive of it.

00:28:54   And I get worried when the stuff I use

00:28:56   becomes less reliable or less good or stops working

00:28:59   at the expense of trying to push forward

00:29:02   this new world here that I think is really trying to like,

00:29:09   I don't know, it's like trying to extract oil shale.

00:29:12   You know, it's like we pumped all the easy oil

00:29:14   back forever ago, now we have to get all this weird oil

00:29:17   out of shale and stuff.

00:29:19   I don't know, this is a very long and rambly argument.

00:29:21   I should just cut this entire thing.

00:29:22   What do you guys think?

00:29:23   I mean, is there anything to what I'm saying here

00:29:25   or am I just totally lost or old?

00:29:27   - I think you need a new thought technology, as they say.

00:29:30   (laughing)

00:29:32   Not a new one, it's a thought technology

00:29:34   we all already have, it just needs to be applied

00:29:35   in a new context and this is going more meta

00:29:39   maybe you are, but if you ever find yourself thinking or saying a thing that you know that

00:29:48   people have been thinking or saying for the entire recorded history of humanity, it doesn't mean that

00:29:52   you're wrong or that you're right, but it does mean that you have to remember to sort of check

00:29:59   yourself by saying, "All right, I know," just to give an example, "I know for a fact that people

00:30:07   are always saying to kids these days that every generation thinks that the kids are

00:30:10   like lazier than they are, right? And that when I was a kid I learned how to, you know,

00:30:14   do Latin in school and the kids these days don't and whatever, like, we all know that, right? And

00:30:20   so if we ever find ourselves saying, you know, "Is it true? Am I out of touch?" No, it's the

00:30:25   children who are wrong. If we find ourselves saying that, it's because we know that people

00:30:31   always say that. We check ourselves and say, "Okay, it doesn't mean that I'm wrong. It could be

00:30:35   that the kids these days do have a problem and or whatever but I have to be really really skeptical

00:30:40   when I have that feeling because there's a reason everyone always has that feeling because everyone

00:30:44   gets old and they see the kids and kids do things differently than they do and they think the kids

00:30:48   are lazy and and not as good as they were and should and they had it harder than the kids do

00:30:52   you know what I mean like we all know that one there is an equivalent you know repeating thought

00:30:57   or historical fact or sort of feeling about the world in lots of different contexts and you Marco

00:31:03   I think I've hit on one of them, which is computing used to be simpler.

00:31:07   We had PCs, and even in the smartphones, we had smartphones, and there was one of them,

00:31:10   and it was the best one, and whatever trade-offs were inherent in that device, it didn't matter,

00:31:15   because there was no other iPhone you could get, because that was the iPhone.

00:31:19   And PCs were general purpose, and there was a long period of time where the PCs just got

00:31:22   faster and better, and they got more memory, more CPU, more disk, and laptops got smaller,

00:31:27   but not so small that they started to have size compromises, and they got faster and

00:31:31   better and you know from black and white to color screens and like it was just such a

00:31:35   logical normal progression and part of the reason it seemed normal was because we were

00:31:39   in the age when things are changing like we were growing up during that time and anything

00:31:42   that happens when you're growing up you know it's the old saying I think it's Douglas Adams

00:31:45   or somebody over like whatever technology exists when you're born you think is normal

00:31:49   whatever technology is invented before you're 30 you think is great and anything invented

00:31:53   after you're 30 you think is an embalming unnatural abomination right so that feeling

00:31:58   you're getting is totally real. But because everybody always has that feeling, every generation

00:32:04   before has that feeling about everything, whether it's the automatic transmission or

00:32:07   the wheel or the horseless carriage or television versus radio or radio versus going to the

00:32:13   theater or the mass is not in Latin anymore or whatever it is, or the amazing variety

00:32:19   of clothes that we have to choose from. When I was a boy, we just had one pair of pants

00:32:22   and one shirt. Like you have to re-examine everything you're feeling about this in the

00:32:28   context of your own life and your own progression through this and it's like is this just a

00:32:33   natural part of getting older or is this a natural part of a market getting older because

00:32:38   like some markets are mature and kind of stay the same like for example mechanical watches

00:32:42   not a lot of motion there just fashion moving back and forth and some markets are much more

00:32:46   dynamic like technology they're changing all the time and like I said this doesn't mean

00:32:50   that you're wrong about you know Apple being in a period where they're like either overextended

00:32:54   or doing weird things or making different trade-offs or perhaps not picking the best

00:32:58   balance of the product line, especially as far as you're concerned or whatever.

00:33:02   But it does mean that at the very least, every time you have these feelings, just like if

00:33:07   you have the feeling about the kids these days, you have to examine it in that context

00:33:13   honestly.

00:33:14   And even if you're not going to examine it, at the very least voice the fact that you

00:33:16   know this is a cliché and it could be that you're totally misleading yourself or whatever.

00:33:22   And I think that will go a long way towards getting to the heart of what is really going

00:33:25   on.

00:33:26   Because the feeling is real.

00:33:27   Like, the feeling is 100% real.

00:33:28   But it's when you draw from that feeling to the conclusions that you have to be careful,

00:33:32   especially, and I think especially, and now we're getting back to specifics more, when

00:33:36   in the case of Apple, you find your way through a series of logical leaps to some sort of

00:33:43   maliciousness or bad motivation, whether it be greed or carelessness or, you know, whatever

00:33:50   it may be.

00:33:51   Because most of the time, as we all know, it's very easy to jump to conclusions about

00:33:56   maliciousness when really it's just an unfortunate series of events or a product that's not actually

00:34:00   made for you or you don't have all the information available or all those other explanations

00:34:05   because in the grand scheme of things, Apple is not a super evil company.

00:34:11   And it's true that you can have a company full of really good people that nevertheless

00:34:15   does things that are bad.

00:34:17   But we all know Apple well enough that I really have a hard time believing the most craven

00:34:23   theories about why Apple does anything, especially without any actual evidence other than it

00:34:27   seems like this is the type of thing they would do because I'm mad about the fact that

00:34:30   the product lines are changing.

00:34:32   And getting even more specific, I think with the trade-offs and the products, I think it's

00:34:36   just a natural diversification of this type of product line.

00:34:38   If you just look at any other business where you start off with something simple, even

00:34:42   just the Model T that comes in one color, and look at the variety of crazy things we

00:34:46   have now. Did you see the, what was it, the, not the M6, the 6, the X6M, it's the M version

00:34:52   of the stupid XBMW. What is that called? Yeah, the X6M. It's like 0 to 60 in three seconds.

00:34:57   It's like a, it's like an SUV that's as fast as, as, it just doesn't make any sense as

00:35:02   a car. Like, they make completely nonsensical things, and it's like, oh, I liked it better

00:35:07   when we just had the Model T, and that was the card you could get. You can get a Panamera,

00:35:10   You can get that--

00:35:12   I still don't know the name of the car-- the X6M.

00:35:14   You can get a Miata with a Fiat body on it.

00:35:17   I mean, you can get all manner of crazy things in cars.

00:35:19   And it's like, it was much simpler when it was just

00:35:21   like one or two cars.

00:35:22   It was, but this is not how the market goes.

00:35:24   And now it's like, now I have to pick which

00:35:25   trade-offs do I want.

00:35:26   Do I want a minivan or do I have to get this car, but I

00:35:28   can't fit as many kids in it.

00:35:29   But then this has seats, but they're small back seats.

00:35:31   But it doesn't go as fast as this car.

00:35:32   It's like, yeah, that's just the natural

00:35:34   progression of any market.

00:35:35   It's going to spread like that.

00:35:36   And it may be uncomfortable, because we were used to,

00:35:38   especially, like I said, a weird period of time

00:35:41   when we grew up there in computers

00:35:42   that when they were basically the same

00:35:44   but better every year, it was just such a clean win.

00:35:46   It would be nice if things continued that way,

00:35:48   nice in terms of our comfort,

00:35:49   but probably not the right thing to do for the market.

00:35:52   Anyway, this is not, like I said,

00:35:54   this is not to dismiss all of your criticisms

00:35:56   'cause I have criticisms about the tool, we all do,

00:35:58   only to make a comment on how I think we all have to look

00:36:03   at the things that are legitimately upsetting us

00:36:06   about the technology, in the grand scheme of things,

00:36:09   who cares, right?

00:36:10   But the technology products that we're thinking about

00:36:11   and buying, like you said, because you use them

00:36:13   for your work and it does have an effect on you,

00:36:15   an actual real effect, it's not all academic.

00:36:17   - And there's nowhere else to go, like--

00:36:19   - Well, you don't know that because you just don't even try

00:36:21   that, for all you know, Android can be awesome.

00:36:23   - Well, I'm thinking more on the desktop, like--

00:36:25   - Well, you could be right there, maybe Linux,

00:36:27   I can't even say it, all right?

00:36:29   - Windows 10, Windows 10 might be good.

00:36:31   Casey likes other Windows, you can put them

00:36:32   on the side of the screen if you don't know

00:36:33   how to manage Windows.

00:36:34   - No, I mean, I think, first of all, I think you're right.

00:36:37   I mean, this is why everyone loves you,

00:36:39   because you're able to see through all of our emotions

00:36:43   and BS arguments and call it what it is.

00:36:45   So I think you're right.

00:36:47   - Emotions are real.

00:36:49   Going back, this whole show is just a series

00:36:51   of erotic references and Simpsons references

00:36:53   that you don't get.

00:36:54   Emotions are real.

00:36:54   Like, it's not to say that like, oh, dismiss the emotion.

00:36:58   Like, those are real.

00:36:59   Your feelings are real and legitimate,

00:37:01   and I want to validate them, right?

00:37:03   It's just, it's like, how you act on them

00:37:05   and what conclusions you might draw,

00:37:07   and all I'm saying is to be skeptical

00:37:09   when those thoughts fall into common patterns

00:37:11   that we know are kind of anti-patterns.

00:37:12   Doesn't mean that you're wrong.

00:37:14   It just means like, use that as a tool to turn through 'em.

00:37:17   - No, I mean, that's fair.

00:37:18   I think part of what I'm feeling is that I really do think

00:37:22   Apple has more quality problems now than they used to.

00:37:24   I really do think that they are spread more thin

00:37:27   than they used to be, and I really do think

00:37:29   that their new products are not nearly as big of hits

00:37:32   or as clean of wins as their previous products.

00:37:36   But I think also it's that, as you mentioned,

00:37:39   it used to be so much simpler.

00:37:42   For a while there, I would get excited

00:37:44   about almost anything Apple did,

00:37:46   because almost anything they did was potentially for me.

00:37:50   Whereas now, right now everything's all hyped up

00:37:54   about iPad Pro and the Apple TV,

00:37:56   'cause those are the newest things.

00:37:58   And the kind of products I use,

00:38:00   like the biggest, most powerful, most expensive desktops

00:38:03   and the biggest laptops don't get updated very frequently

00:38:07   in meaningful ways.

00:38:08   The Mac Pro hardly ever gets touched.

00:38:10   The 15 inch MacBook Pro is actually due for an update

00:38:13   pretty soon with Skylake and I'm sure they're gonna make it

00:38:16   thinner and lighter and with less battery life

00:38:18   and everything and that'll be fine

00:38:19   and I'll probably buy one eventually.

00:38:22   So the kind of products that I like

00:38:25   just are kind of out of the PR cycle right now

00:38:27   and the kinds of products,

00:38:29   like the iPad is very frustrating to me

00:38:31   because I always want to really get into the iPad

00:38:34   and it just never sticks for me.

00:38:35   I never can do what I need to do on it.

00:38:38   And I hear other people able to incredibly,

00:38:42   awesomely, freely work on their iPad Pros

00:38:46   and get most of all of their work done on the iPad

00:38:49   and I feel like I'm living on another planet here

00:38:51   because I just can't do that

00:38:53   and I'm afraid of, you know,

00:38:54   that I'm being the old fogey here

00:38:56   going to get overrun by all these young people using iPads and being able to, I don't know,

00:39:00   glide above me with their wonderful big light aircraft carriers that are the giant iPads.

00:39:04   But I think back to in college, sorry for the long, long-winded Marko episode right

00:39:13   now but I'm almost done, I'm almost back to coughing, don't worry. But you know, I think

00:39:17   back to a time in college, I had a professor who's still there named Gregory Caphammer

00:39:21   at Allegheny College, I noticed in his office that he was using desktop Linux. And I asked

00:39:26   him, like, you know, why don't you use Windows? Why are you using Linux to do all this stuff?

00:39:32   You know, why are you not using Windows like the rest of the world? Wouldn't that be more

00:39:35   useful? And he said, "I don't use Windows because I can't get any of my work done on

00:39:40   Windows." And at the time, that seemed like the most ridiculous statement I had ever heard.

00:39:47   And I thought, "Wow, what a huge nerd this guy is. Like, I can't believe, how could he

00:39:50   How could he not get his, like,

00:39:51   how can he get his work done on Linux?

00:39:53   Now, looking back on it, he was totally right,

00:39:56   and Linux really was the best platform

00:39:59   to get all of his work done.

00:40:00   And now, if I say, "What is the best platform

00:40:03   "to get my work done?"

00:40:04   It is very clearly Mac OS X.

00:40:07   Like, no question, it's Mac OS, right?

00:40:09   And the reason I don't use Windows

00:40:12   and the reason I don't use Linux

00:40:12   is that I could not get any of my work done

00:40:14   on those platforms.

00:40:15   Now, my work might change over time.

00:40:17   Obviously, if I stop making iOS or Apple ecosystem apps,

00:40:21   then I could probably work very well on Linux

00:40:25   because then I wouldn't need Xcode.

00:40:28   But the difference in, if you're using desktop Linux,

00:40:31   I feel like you have some kind of ownership over that

00:40:34   where because it is so open source and weird

00:40:37   and fragmented, that kind of keeps it healthy.

00:40:41   It's kind of like not having a monoculture as much.

00:40:44   Whereas in the Apple world, one company controls

00:40:48   my entire work environment, my entire work and hobby life.

00:40:53   One company controls all of that, and also,

00:40:56   they seem like it's no longer really top

00:40:58   of their radar anymore.

00:41:00   And that's a little bit scary to me.

00:41:03   And so part of my reaction against everyone thinking

00:41:07   they can get all their work done on the iPads

00:41:08   is kind of a defensive position of like, wait a minute,

00:41:11   I can't get my work done on the iPad,

00:41:13   And also, all this focus on the iPad is possibly costing

00:41:17   the platform that I do get my work on attention

00:41:19   and maybe its future, and that feels threatening.

00:41:22   And obviously that's not a good position to be in,

00:41:25   to feel that way or to feel threatened by that.

00:41:28   Obviously it's partially defensive and irrational

00:41:31   and partially old man get off my lawn kind of stuff.

00:41:34   But it is certainly a feeling

00:41:35   that I think is worth recognizing.

00:41:38   I don't know, what do you guys think?

00:41:40   - So I think the problem that you and I have

00:41:42   is that even though you said you kind of switched

00:41:46   the Apple ecosystem in 2004, is that right?

00:41:48   - That's right.

00:41:49   - All right, so for me, it was, I believe, 2008.

00:41:53   And I think the problem that you and I are wrestling with

00:41:56   is that maybe less than 2004, but certainly in 2008,

00:42:00   when I became an Apple user,

00:42:04   things were just getting better and better

00:42:07   and better and better in pretty much every measurable way.

00:42:12   I'm sure if you were to go back to listen to podcasts from 2008 or 2009, we would have

00:42:16   found something to complain about, because that's what nerds often do.

00:42:20   But with hindsight, I feel like it's fairly clear that things were just getting so much

00:42:25   better so much quicker.

00:42:26   We were on this hockey stick of awesome, just going up and up and up and up.

00:42:32   And I remember being very happy about Snow Leopard, and Snow Leopard came at the right

00:42:36   time because I felt like that's when things were starting to get a little shaky.

00:42:40   And then Snow Leopard came and, to my recollection, fixed a lot of the problems.

00:42:45   And I think that this—the last year or so, maybe a little more, maybe a little less,

00:42:52   is the first time that I—and I presume you, Marco—have had to deal with an apple that

00:42:58   maybe isn't firing on all cylinders, or isn't doing what we want it to do, which

00:43:04   comes back to what Jon was saying earlier.

00:43:06   You know, maybe this isn't for us after all.

00:43:09   And I think back to like the 2008 era, and I don't feel like they ever—I don't think

00:43:14   at that point they really had any terribly strong competition in the mobile space.

00:43:19   And I think anyone who paid even the least bit of attention would realize, wow, their

00:43:24   computers are so much better than anything PC had—anything that Microsoft would have

00:43:31   touched.

00:43:32   And it was so obvious that Apple was so much better in almost every measurable way.

00:43:39   And it was funny because at the time I remember saying to friends, "You know, I hope that

00:43:44   Android gets better and I hope that Windows Phone Mobile 6 Metro, whatever it was called

00:43:50  

00:43:51   >>Trevor: Pocket edition.

00:43:52   >>

00:43:52   I hope that takes off, because I want Apple to have competition.

00:43:56   I want them to have to work for it, because I don't want them to get complacent.

00:44:01   And looking back on it, I almost wonder if that wasn't what we wanted.

00:44:06   Because granted, Apple shouldn't be complacent now, and perhaps isn't complacent.

00:44:13   But at the time, I feel like they were so far ahead of the competition that they could

00:44:18   meander their way into something awesome casually. Whereas today, I don't know if I would go

00:44:26   so far as to explain—go so far as to say that they're playing catch-up, but things

00:44:32   are not quite so simple anymore. And I think, Marco, you had said earlier, or one of you

00:44:35   guys had said earlier, you know, Android phones are pretty darn good now. And—

00:44:39   That wasn't me. Well, fair enough. So they've gotten a lot

00:44:44   better anyway. And so a lot of the ways in which Apple was a clear and obvious winner, they may not

00:44:50   be the clear and obvious winner anymore. And so I feel like where they used to be, they used to be

00:44:56   paving the racetrack, you know, half a, half a, half the length of track ahead of all the race cars,

00:45:03   now they're like yards ahead of the race cars, and I think it's starting to show. And so I think what

00:45:10   we're wrestling with, and I'm hoping Jon will provide some historical context here as soon as

00:45:13   as I shut up is this is the first time that you and I have seen an apple that maybe has

00:45:19   sputtered a little bit.

00:45:21   It may not be as bad as us three curmudgeons make it out to be, but I think we can all

00:45:26   agree they're sputtering a little bit, just a little bit.

00:45:30   And it's hard for you and I to deal with that because we're not used to that.

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00:47:25   our show. So going back to what I started out wanting to talk about with this Tuck Sharkade

00:47:32   article about the Apple TV app store apparently doing pretty poorly so far. It does seem like

00:47:38   one of the problems that Apple is facing now is that even Apple seems to be trying very

00:47:45   hard to replicate their earlier successes and not really hitting them. And so the article

00:47:51   is talking about from the point of view of developers and the app stores and saying that

00:47:56   that basically that not a lot of people are having success

00:48:00   in the non-iPhone and iPad app stores.

00:48:03   So the watch and the Apple TV and maybe the Mac,

00:48:06   I don't know if it's even talked about the Mac,

00:48:07   but certainly the watch and the Apple TV,

00:48:09   like the new ones.

00:48:11   I would even extend that to say probably the iPad.

00:48:14   I mean, we'll see, like right now the iPad Pro is out.

00:48:17   It's a good time for selling decent iPad software right now

00:48:22   and the iPad Pro will have momentum.

00:48:25   It is a very compelling product to a lot of people,

00:48:27   so it will succeed, it will have momentum,

00:48:30   it'll do well in the holiday season,

00:48:31   and it'll probably do well for the next year or so,

00:48:34   but then what?

00:48:35   'Cause we saw what happened with previous iPad software,

00:48:38   which was basically, it did okay for a while,

00:48:43   but then it was very hard for developers to justify

00:48:46   putting a lot of time into the iPad versions of their apps.

00:48:48   And there's always gonna be certain apps

00:48:49   where it always makes sense.

00:48:50   But I'm talking more generally, more apps,

00:48:53   general purpose apps, general productivity,

00:48:55   or browsing, or social, or whatever kind of apps

00:48:57   that people tend to want to use

00:48:59   on their modern computing devices.

00:49:00   The iPad historically has been pretty far behind

00:49:04   in a lot of those areas because it just hasn't been worth

00:49:06   developers putting a lot of time into it.

00:49:08   The sales didn't usually support it,

00:49:10   while the iPhone always did very well.

00:49:13   So in this article, they're basically making

00:49:15   the same argument that all these new app stores

00:49:17   keep coming out from Apple, and Apple keeps wanting

00:49:19   developers to make all this great stuff

00:49:21   for these new devices and new platforms,

00:49:24   but it doesn't seem to be working very well.

00:49:28   It doesn't seem like it's worth developers' time

00:49:32   to put much into those things.

00:49:34   And that's a shame, because these are platforms

00:49:36   that have incredible potential if it's realized,

00:49:38   but it's just not, this article's citing

00:49:41   very, very low sales figures for these apps.

00:49:45   I could just tell, just anecdotally talking

00:49:47   to my developer friends and seeing my own numbers

00:49:49   from the watch and stuff, it really does seem like developing for the watch or the TV at

00:49:54   this point is probably not a great use of limited amounts of time. And, you know, developing

00:50:02   just for the iPhone is probably a pretty safe bet for most apps, unless they really need

00:50:07   like a big canvas or they really need a TV version or something. But, you know, it seems

00:50:11   like Apple had this great success with the iPhone. And everything they've done since

00:50:16   then has been trying to recreate that kind of success.

00:50:19   Maybe, I mean, obviously the cell phone market is very different with things like, you know,

00:50:24   subsidies and just the pocketability and everything.

00:50:27   They're never going to exactly reproduce the iPhone success.

00:50:32   But they at least want to get, like, I don't know, in the ballpark with an order of magnitude

00:50:37   maybe and I don't, I think they're having trouble replicating their own success.

00:50:42   And from the angle of developers, like what this is talking about, I think one of the

00:50:47   problems here is that Apple, with the success of the iPhone, and with the early success

00:50:54   of the iPad, although not the latest success, but with the success of those two platforms

00:50:57   and mostly the iPhone, Apple developed this level of closed-offness and arrogance towards

00:51:05   developers that, I don't know if they always had it, I wasn't an Apple developer before

00:51:10   that point, but certainly with the App Store era here, and it seems like they have developed

00:51:19   almost a hostility. In many ways it is hostility. In certain ways it's not. The open sourcing

00:51:25   of Swift is solid and a really good move, but in many ways the actual experience of

00:51:31   being an Apple developer, especially if you're reliant on the App Stores, if you're on anything

00:51:36   but the Mac, the actual experience of being an Apple developer is pretty hostile at most

00:51:42   times. Apple has, you know, if you look at every other company in the industry, every

00:51:47   other company that has a platform that they need apps to be built on, they are all, with

00:51:55   the possible exception of Amazon, because they're just horrible, but besides Amazon,

00:51:59   other companies try to attract developers to their platform. They tend to make things

00:52:04   nicer for developers. They tend to actively recruit developers and try really, really

00:52:09   hard to get developers to their platforms. Apple tries to get developers to their platforms

00:52:15   the way New York tries to get people to move here. It's like, it's just like, just barriers

00:52:21   and brick walls and taxes and downsides and it's like, just, Apple basically says, "Please

00:52:28   don't be a developer here." Because for the iPhone, they didn't have to go out and beg

00:52:33   developers to come develop for their platform.

00:52:36   Developers were knocking the door down.

00:52:38   And Apple has been able to kind of be carried by that

00:52:41   all this time, that attitude of like,

00:52:44   of being in the maximum position of power,

00:52:47   not needing to really be nice for developers

00:52:51   to work with at all for the iPhone.

00:52:55   But for their other platforms, they're having these problems.

00:52:59   The other platforms, developers aren't knocking

00:53:02   doors down. And I feel like Apple doesn't really know how to manage that situation.

00:53:07   They don't even know how to attract developers who don't already want to be there. They

00:53:11   certainly are not set up for it with the store or developer relations or any of these departments

00:53:16   that so far have not really needed to do this, at least in the last decade. And I feel like

00:53:23   they don't even know how to solve this problem. And part of it is not their problem at all.

00:53:27   Part of it is a market problem of like, well, they got to, you know, get more of these devices

00:53:30   out there and get people, you know, buy more apps on them. But a big part of it is like

00:53:35   Apple's developer approach in general, the app stores themselves and the app store policies

00:53:42   are all really fighting against developer adoption on these new platforms. So I feel

00:53:47   like this is one major way in which Apple is stumbling now and I don't see an end

00:53:51   in sight to the way they currently do developer relations and the app stores. And so therefore

00:53:57   I don't think the Apple TV and the watch are gonna really do well app wise and I'm worried about the iPad Pro

00:54:04   Once once the current like newness of it dies down, which is probably only gonna be in like six months

00:54:09   You know once that dies down

00:54:10   I worry about the the health of the software ecosystems on these platforms because it seems like Apple does not know how to manage that

00:54:17   You feel okay about the iPad I think because like in big picture type stuff of you know

00:54:24   Having used Apple stuff since 1984 or not use Mac stuff since 1984 and Apple Apple tools before that and everything

00:54:30   There is an overall arc

00:54:34   To this market that I talked about like that, you know personal computers became a thing in in my lifetime anyway, and

00:54:40   for a while they had a steady stream of improvements obvious improvements to a basic form called the personal computer and

00:54:50   Round about the time laptops started to become a thing that one solid form which was basically a keyboard a box and a monitor

00:54:57   Plus or minus the monitor being connected to the box or whatever and just getting better every year floppy disks that yeah

00:55:03   well that that sort of

00:55:05   It became more diverse like the tree started to sprout branches and just it's getting more branch here as we go here

00:55:12   So that's that's diversifying. So there is that overall arc but still within that overall arc

00:55:16   Like you said there's the ups and downs of Apple. There's the ups and downs of the industry

00:55:20   There's lots of other things going around if you've seen more than one of those cycles

00:55:23   It starts to not feel as panicking and you can just say well

00:55:27   This isn't as bad as it was when like the Mac came out and was better than every other computer in the world and nobody

00:55:31   Bought it

00:55:33   Certainly, they didn't have that problem with the iPhone and even the iPad to that degree

00:55:36   But really what I think you should feel good about like for the iPad for example is

00:55:41   we all we were tweeting recently a couple days ago about all these stories of like

00:55:47   elementary school teachers in computer labs having the the

00:55:50   Young kids come into computer labs and be throwing the mice around because they had no idea what they were

00:55:54   Right because this is a generation of children that is brought up with phones that are like the iPhone and with tablets and

00:56:03   Some of these kids even if there was a PC in their house with a mouse attached to it

00:56:07   Have probably had never had any occasion to use it had no attraction to it

00:56:13   were you know were asking to grab their parents iPhone to play games on it if they didn't have one of their own and

00:56:19   If they were if they were lucky enough to have like a hand-me-down iPad or some kind of tablet would do stuff on that

00:56:26   The personal computer as a thing to to the upcoming generation is I mean and any

00:56:32   You know the mouse examples because like if they did have a PC was probably a laptop and probably had a trackpad

00:56:37   another thing that's not a mouse so

00:56:40   Doesn't really matter in the grand generational scheme of things

00:56:43   if this entire generation thinks of

00:56:46   Either doesn't think of computers or basically thinks of them as tablets

00:56:51   It doesn't mean Apple's gonna win the market for tablets, but it does mean that

00:56:54   Every every kid born into a world where they touch screens on their phones and their tablets

00:57:00   That's how they do everything has no attachment to the PC is a thing. They're going to be you know when they're an old professor

00:57:06   They're gonna be like why I'm professor. Why do you have this stupid tablet that you touch on your thing?

00:57:11   Like why why don't you use VR headset and he's like I only get my work done is on this tablet

00:57:15   And then it's like why don't we use VR headsets? But everyone else uses stupid using a tablet, right? That's a silly example

00:57:21   I'm just picking things out of a hat that we can relate to right that

00:57:24   the job of the company like long the long-term health of the company is to try to figure out what the next thing is and

00:57:30   Be there and Apple did a pretty good job with the iPad doesn't mean Apple's going to win the future sort of you know

00:57:36   Apple was lucky enough to both invent the future with the iPhone.

00:57:39   You say, "Hey guys, this is what a smartphone should be like."

00:57:42   And everyone else was like, "Oh yeah, no, you're totally right."

00:57:44   And then here we are today.

00:57:46   And they still did well.

00:57:48   Apple essentially invented the future as we know it.

00:57:51   Like, this is what a modern GUI looks like.

00:57:53   We've got menus and dragon files around doing all this stuff.

00:57:56   And they more or less popularized that, but didn't win that market.

00:58:00   Someone else came and said, "Yeah, those are great ideas."

00:58:02   Now Microsoft just said, "We'll take those and run with it."

00:58:05   and we're going to do better than you in every other way,

00:58:08   so you're going to be a footnote in that type of race.

00:58:11   So when I think about all these markets

00:58:15   that you're talking about for like selling apps to the iPad

00:58:17   and how is the iPad Pro gonna do,

00:58:18   how is the television gonna do or whatever,

00:58:19   I think the most important thing is to make sure

00:58:23   that Apple is wherever these various markets are going.

00:58:26   TV attached boxes are a thing

00:58:27   and Apple's a little behind there,

00:58:28   but they still have to be there.

00:58:30   Tablets are a thing mostly because Apple made them a thing,

00:58:32   mostly because Apple made the smartphone a thing,

00:58:34   and Apple is also there and is kind of still in the race.

00:58:37   So I'm not as really pessimistic about all these things

00:58:42   because Apple may not be the clear winner

00:58:45   in all these categories,

00:58:46   but it is reasonably well positioned.

00:58:48   And the other thing that comes to mind historically speaking

00:58:51   is whenever I hear Apple fans start to talk

00:58:54   like Microsoft fans of old or think like it,

00:58:57   the old Microsoft fandom, when Microsoft ruled the world

00:59:02   and Apple was a footnote and Windows was everywhere

00:59:04   and the PC was just a plain old PC

00:59:06   and that would never change

00:59:07   and Microsoft would live forever, right?

00:59:09   There was a mindset that any market

00:59:14   that Microsoft entered they would win

00:59:16   and then Microsoft must enter every market.

00:59:18   And that's unhealthy thinking.

00:59:20   Like the iPhone is a phenomenal success.

00:59:24   And then it's like, well, if Apple enters the TV market

00:59:28   the assumption is A, they want it to be as successful

00:59:31   as the iPhone, not monetarily, but you know,

00:59:32   terms of like it is as successful of all the TV boxes, Apple makes the best one, everyone

00:59:36   agrees and they sell a lot of them and they make a lot of money, you know what I mean?

00:59:41   They need to be the leader in that market, be the best and then it needs to be super

00:59:46   successful and it's impossible to do that but it doesn't mean Apple shouldn't be in

00:59:51   those markets.

00:59:52   So I think it's okay for Apple to enter a market or dip its toe in a market or noodle

00:59:57   around in a market for a really long time like with the TV boxes or even tablets for

01:00:01   for that matter, because it's important for them

01:00:03   to be there, to figure out what that's about,

01:00:05   and to try to improve and try to be well positioned

01:00:08   if and when something takes off,

01:00:09   which is why Apple also has to do a VR thing,

01:00:10   maybe while they're making a car.

01:00:13   But I don't get bent out of shape thinking about

01:00:16   it's a real problem if people don't make lots of watch apps.

01:00:20   Maybe watch apps, as they're currently conceptualized,

01:00:23   are not even worth doing, in which case it would,

01:00:26   like, what are you winning?

01:00:27   It's like a Pyrrhic victory.

01:00:28   You're on the top of a little tiny hill.

01:00:29   Like, we are the king of watch apps.

01:00:31   like no one cares about watch apps, it's not important, it's a waste of time, don't try

01:00:37   to force it, allow the markets to be what they're going to be, and in particular for

01:00:43   the TV apps, what I think about is, is that a place where people make software and sell

01:00:47   it for money?

01:00:48   That's a model that has worked on the App Store and on the PC before, but on television,

01:00:52   I think of all the apps that I use and it's like, I pay money to Netflix, and Netflix

01:00:57   needs to have an Apple TV app, but I don't pay money for the Netflix app, I pay money

01:01:00   to HBO and HBO needs to have an Apple TV app but I don't pay money for the HBO.

01:01:05   Like, you know what I mean?

01:01:06   It's like a value add or something that just has to be there, but it's not a situation

01:01:09   in which someone writes software and sells it to me for money.

01:01:11   It is merely just a way to receive the content that I pay a subscription for.

01:01:16   You know what I mean?

01:01:17   That is kind of how every game console works, though.

01:01:20   Well, you know.

01:01:21   Why am I telling you this?

01:01:24   Does Apple have to try to compete with game consoles?

01:01:27   Like they're figuring that out.

01:01:29   "Is this the future of gaming or is it not the future of gaming?"

01:01:32   If it is, Apple is reasonably positioned.

01:01:34   If it's not, if you can't, you know, if traditional console model still has legs and Apple doesn't

01:01:40   want to compete there, and why would Apple want to compete there?

01:01:42   That is an old model that works, but it is certainly not like the future, right?

01:01:47   So anyway, I think I'm just more chill about these things in that I don't see every move

01:01:52   that Apple makes into a new market as like a desperate ploy and that I must be down on

01:01:56   if it's not successful because almost nothing is going to be as successful as the iPhone.

01:02:01   Almost nothing is going to be as successful as the PC, conceptually, not the Mac specifically.

01:02:05   But the PC was an amazing success.

01:02:07   Apple did not share in most of that success.

01:02:10   But how often do you get those things?

01:02:11   You got the PC, you've got the automobile, you've got movable type, you've got the wheel,

01:02:16   you've got the smartphone.

01:02:17   Like we don't know what the next one of those things is going to be.

01:02:20   Tablets could just be an extension of the smartphone.

01:02:23   Maybe VR is the next one, maybe it's not.

01:02:24   I don't know, but I'm fine with Apple making a TV box that hopefully is a decent TV box.

01:02:29   I would have been fine with them making a DVR, but they never did because they don't

01:02:32   love me.

01:02:36   I think you just have to kind of...

01:02:39   What I'm fighting against is the expectation that used to be around Microsoft, that whatever

01:02:43   they did, they had to be the winner and it had to be awesome and it had to be great,

01:02:46   like the Steve Ballmer go-go-go type thing.

01:02:49   Microsoft found the limits of that.

01:02:50   Microsoft found that eventually not only is this next thing not going to be the next big

01:02:54   like pen computing for Windows or whatever the hell they were doing.

01:02:57   Not only are we not going to be speaking to our computers as the main form of input in

01:03:01   2001, as Bill Gates might have been surmising at some point in the past, not only will,

01:03:08   you know, whatever Microsoft thinks, like the Xbox, be like the future of entertainment,

01:03:13   although that was pretty successful as far as those things, but there will be a big thing.

01:03:17   Microsoft will be in it, smartphones, and it will lose.

01:03:20   It will lose big.

01:03:22   It will have been there before everybody else,

01:03:25   and it will not only not win,

01:03:27   but it will just be like a footnote,

01:03:29   like Windows phone, right?

01:03:31   And that's what comes from expecting

01:03:35   every single thing you do to like,

01:03:37   we're gonna dominate them,

01:03:37   because you start to believe you're on hype.

01:03:38   You start to believe all Microsoft does do

01:03:40   is introduce a product in this category,

01:03:42   and we will be dominant and we will win.

01:03:44   And if we make up a new category,

01:03:46   like computing with a pen,

01:03:47   that will be the next big thing,

01:03:48   'cause our CEO says it is.

01:03:50   And when it's not, we'll keep making a new version

01:03:52   a new version and a new version and we'll be like, "I don't understand what's going

01:03:55   on here," and then someone else will come out with, you know, the iPhone or whatever

01:03:58   and make us all look foolish.

01:04:00   And so, I don't know.

01:04:01   I don't know what's going inside Apple, but from the outside, I'm much more content to

01:04:06   let these things sort of sort themselves, minus the stuff you were talking about with

01:04:09   the developer relations, because I think that's a legit issue that Apple needs to sort out

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01:06:43   - Do we have any other thoughts on this,

01:06:44   or do we wanna take this to a slightly happier place?

01:06:47   - I have a lot of thoughts on it,

01:06:48   but I mean, you broke the topic,

01:06:49   but we'll save it for follow-up.

01:06:51   Maybe we'll get feedback from people about it later.

01:06:54   - I think what's tough about it is

01:06:55   is that, like Marco has said,

01:06:57   we've seen some feedback lately,

01:07:01   especially about how negative we've all been.

01:07:03   And it's a tough thing, right?

01:07:05   Because maybe we have been a little too negative,

01:07:07   But we want to call it like we see it, and right now, this is how we see it.

01:07:15   And I think I probably speak for Marco, but I certainly speak for myself.

01:07:20   I intend to try to find the more positive side of things going forward, but we also

01:07:25   don't want to not say what we think.

01:07:28   And if it becomes a bear to listen to, then I'm sorry, I genuinely am, but this is what

01:07:33   we think.

01:07:34   And you know what I think about the Swift open source thing?

01:07:36   The more I see of it, the more I like it.

01:07:39   Nice try, nice transition there.

01:07:41   Now, before we even get off that, I just want to say, like, it's not a choice between, like,

01:07:46   you know, because I, every time I get that feedback, I assume it's not about me, because

01:07:50   I'd say, I think I'm not too negative.

01:07:52   So however you'll be the one person who will boldly say, if you were sending an email and

01:07:55   saying too negative and you mean me, I disagree because I think I'm exactly the amount of

01:07:59   negative I normally am.

01:08:00   And again, I also had a podcast called Hypercritical, so maybe I'm holding myself to a slightly

01:08:05   different standard.

01:08:06   But I think the issue is, the trap is basically, it's not a choice between, "Well, do I not

01:08:12   get to say what I feel?

01:08:15   I'm just being honest," or whatever.

01:08:16   It's all about, like I said at the beginning of this whole thing, it's all about an examination

01:08:20   of your feelings are real, and you have to examine them and examine them with the lens

01:08:26   of like, could there be other really common reasons that I'm feeling the things I'm feeling

01:08:31   about this particular thing that are not explained by the conclusions I would like to leap to because

01:08:35   I'm defensive or upset or I have just turned 30 and the world is passing me by as children swipe

01:08:40   their fingers on their iPad screens and I need to use a mouse or whatever, you know what I mean?

01:08:44   Like, it's, I think most of that feedback is legit and it's a signal for all of us, yes, even me,

01:08:52   to just take a closer look at where these feelings are coming from.

01:08:59   And I think because we've been super negative before, it's mostly just about,

01:09:02   "I feel bad and therefore I come to this conclusion." Now some of it, granted, some of it

01:09:08   is people who just don't want to hear anything bad about Apple, but they have their own things.

01:09:11   Like, "Why are you so upset when anyone says anything bad about Apple, especially people

01:09:15   who love Apple?" Like, that's a separate issue. But there's enough of it. And this is true of

01:09:20   anything that you're critical of, whether it's Star Wars or Apple or any other thing.

01:09:25   It behooves all of us to make sure we are not being a cliché and to not react to complaints

01:09:33   of negativity immediately by thinking that now you're just telling me I can't tell you

01:09:37   what my real feelings are and I just want to be honest.

01:09:40   I'm just saying the truth.

01:09:41   I'm just saying the real thing.

01:09:44   Just to be self-critical.

01:09:47   greatest hypercritical of all is I can't do the Whitney Houston transition, someone else

01:09:51   can figure it out. But yeah, being self-critical is perhaps the most important place of criticism,

01:09:57   and I think it's worthwhile for all of us to do that. And I think we try to do that to each other,

01:10:02   whichever one of us is in the crankiest mood. Hopefully the other two help try to think about

01:10:08   other ways that could be explained. And so I think that's an ongoing thing, and I think we'll all

01:10:14   try to do better in the new year.

01:10:16   - Yep, absolutely.

01:10:18   So, Swift open source.

01:10:20   We've talked about this some,

01:10:21   and unfortunately the show notes are, I think,

01:10:24   some of the things we've talked about

01:10:25   and some of the things we haven't.

01:10:27   But I'm still stunned and extremely pleased

01:10:32   with pretty much everything associated

01:10:35   with this entire endeavor.

01:10:36   I cannot, I just can't believe

01:10:40   that this is really what Apple is doing.

01:10:42   And just this week, Craig Federighi was on the talk show, which I thought was awesome.

01:10:49   And there was some other guy on it too, other than John Gruber.

01:10:51   I don't know who he was, but he was all right.

01:10:54   But Federighi was great.

01:10:55   And I thought it was a really candid conversation.

01:10:59   It didn't feel to me like it was all just BS marketing speak.

01:11:05   This is not unlike the conversation that Gruber had with Phil Schiller at WWDC.

01:11:09   I thought it was really great.

01:11:10   I think what they've done there is great.

01:11:13   Chris Latner, if you ever want to come on the show, let us know.

01:11:18   All this open sourcing with Swift and the way it's being handled and how receptive they've

01:11:22   been to additions from the community, like Erica's—how do you pronounce her last name?

01:11:27   Erica Seydin?

01:11:29   She had pitched getting rid of increment and decrement operators, and that apparently is

01:11:34   going to be a thing.

01:11:35   No, she did the four loops.

01:11:36   Sorry, my bad.

01:11:37   She did the classic four loops.

01:11:38   Sorry, my apologies.

01:11:39   apologies. But that's—so now they're gone. And I just think that's phenomenally

01:11:44   awesome. And I really genuinely commend Apple for pretty much everything that they've

01:11:50   been doing around this space. I don't know. What do you guys think?

01:11:52   Yeah, the stuff I have in for Swift stuff is basically left over from the first time

01:11:56   we discussed it, but it's small tidbits that I thought were fun. First one was a tweet

01:12:00   from Chris Latner from a little while back. It says, "Swift's comments and test suite

01:12:05   are on track to be one of the most correctly spelled and best-indented ones in the industry."

01:12:09   And this maybe this makes no sense

01:12:11   but it's a comment like when you have an open source project and you put it out there and there's a lot of excitement about

01:12:15   It as there is about Swift and there's a lot of people who want to do things

01:12:18   The easiest thing to do is sort of bike shedding or whatever to say

01:12:22   I'm just gonna go in there and fix typos and I'm gonna

01:12:25   Reindent this because the spacing is all messed up in this thing because it's really easy to do that

01:12:30   And when you have a million people and they're just I say I just want to go in there and fix something and so I just

01:12:33   They you know

01:12:35   Fork it on github and go into the documentation and test suite and like fix the broken indenting

01:12:41   And there's a lot of people with enthusiasm and that's how they landed and it's kind of snarky

01:12:46   It's like on the one hand you could be saying that like oh

01:12:50   Chris ladders being mean don't you appreciate our contributions? We're fixing your spelling and typo

01:12:56   That's a legitimate concern, but that's not how he meant it at all as Matthew Palmer pointed out

01:13:01   Anyone teasing people about what he calls pedantic PR as pull requests on Swift lang

01:13:06   The first non Chris Latner commit was a typo fix

01:13:10   And that at Chris Latin himself to clarify later slightly made another tweet that said

01:13:15   Making small improvements is the one that everyone gets started. This is how open source works

01:13:19   Hey, I want to help contribute to Swift

01:13:21   But I am not ready to declare how the language should work because I'd have never even written anything in it

01:13:25   Go fix typos go fix a dent and go fix a test suite go find a test that fails on your system and make

01:13:31   so it passes on your system by adding a new conditional or improving a capability check

01:13:34   or something. That's how open source works. So I think the spirit of these tweets about

01:13:40   the best spelled and indented things, that's a spirit of joyfulness of, "Look at all these

01:13:46   people who are contributing." Craig talked about it on the talk show. The tremendous

01:13:49   activity around Swift, so much enthusiasm. Enthusiasm that had nowhere to go when Swift

01:13:54   was closed source. And now that it's open source, all these people who are jazzed about Swift

01:13:58   have some place to put that effort, and just having hundreds and thousands of people making

01:14:03   this thing better. Like, it's just got to feel awesome for Apple. It's like, essentially,

01:14:07   the magic of open source. We're getting free labor that's making things better for everybody,

01:14:11   including us. And everybody's happy about it. The people who do it are happy because

01:14:14   they feel like I contributed to this big thing that's important to all of us. Apple's happy

01:14:18   because their stuff is getting better. It's great.

01:14:21   Yeah, I've been really impressed by all of it. What else did we have in the show notes

01:14:27   The license, do you want to talk at all about that, John?

01:14:31   Yeah, it came up on the talk show as well.

01:14:33   It's the Apache 2 license.

01:14:34   I'm not a connoisseur of open source licenses,

01:14:37   but it was pointed out to me one interesting thing about Apache

01:14:40   2, other than the fact that it being like non-viral,

01:14:42   like the GPL, and a license that is

01:14:44   suitable for a commercial entity like Apple

01:14:46   to use for its software so that it doesn't have to open source

01:14:48   everything that it writes in Swift or whatever else.

01:14:52   One particular part of it is the patent grant

01:14:55   that basically makes it gives people cover to say,

01:14:59   "Hey, if I use Swift for like whatever I'm doing,

01:15:01   I'm making some embedded software for like,

01:15:05   you know, a light switch that can,

01:15:07   a wifi light switch or something,

01:15:08   and I wanna use Swift to do it.

01:15:10   Do I have to worry that Apple is gonna sue me

01:15:13   for violating some patent or something like that?"

01:15:16   And the Apache 2 license grants, you know,

01:15:19   if you use the software with this license,

01:15:22   what is it, you know, it's legal ease,

01:15:24   but each contributor hereby grants to you a perpetual

01:15:28   worldwide, non-exclusive, non-charge, royalty-free,

01:15:30   irrevocable, except as stated in the section,

01:15:32   patent license to make, have made, use, offer, sell,

01:15:35   blah, blah, blah.

01:15:35   Like everyone who contributes is basically saying,

01:15:38   if you were contributing something

01:15:39   and you have any patents,

01:15:44   each contributor grants to you a license to those patents.

01:15:47   And then there's the fun section at the end that says,

01:15:49   if you institute patent litigation against any entity,

01:15:52   including a cross-claim or counterclaim in a lawsuit,

01:15:54   alleging that the work or a contribution incorporated within the work constitutes a direct or contributory

01:15:58   patent infringement, then any patent licenses granted to you under this license shall terminate."

01:16:02   So basically, if you contribute stuff and then try to sue other people, because like,

01:16:06   "Hey, that's my patented work in there," then you lose all the patent protection.

01:16:10   It's basically a way to try to work around our stupid patent system to make people feel

01:16:14   safer about both contributing to Swift and or whatever things under the Apache license

01:16:21   to using it and to dissuade people from like putting in a little patent time bomb and then

01:16:25   trying to sue everybody who uses Swift because their patent thing is in there.

01:16:28   I thought it was pretty clever, at least assuming that my understanding of it is remotely accurate.

01:16:33   But the bottom line is that this is something that would make the Apache 2 license particularly

01:16:38   appealing to Apple and make it appealing to people who want to contribute because you

01:16:44   might be afraid of contributing to a project run by a company that has a million patents

01:16:50   and that has litigated based on patents in the past, and Apple has.

01:16:54   All right, so we did not talk about the package manager.

01:16:57   Yeah, this is sort of a human interest story angle type thing.

01:17:01   So I don't know much about Swift package manager, other than we will put a link to it in the

01:17:05   show notes, and it's open source and you can look at it.

01:17:08   But apparently one of the developers behind it is the guy who made Homebrew, which is

01:17:12   a package manager, open source package manager for OS X.

01:17:15   His name is Max Howell.

01:17:17   And the reason this came up in our little circles is he had some snarky tweets about

01:17:24   Google not hiring him.

01:17:25   Like he interviewed Google and apparently Google did not want him and Max felt like

01:17:31   they didn't want him for dumb reasons.

01:17:34   Regardless of why Google didn't want him, they didn't and Apple hired him and used him

01:17:38   to write "used him" and had him write a package manager for Swift.

01:17:42   And considering he wrote homebrew, which is a pretty popular package manager for OS X,

01:17:46   He probably has some significant experience writing package managers, so hopefully he

01:17:50   did an even better job on the second one.

01:17:54   And his complaint was basically like, they wanted me to do computer science-y stuff and

01:17:59   they wouldn't hire me even though they use Homebrew in Google.

01:18:03   Like, so your employees are using my software but they won't hire me because I can't do

01:18:06   some weird computer science-y tree-ish thing in an interview.

01:18:09   At least that's his perception of why he wasn't hired.

01:18:12   And I've always thought that that type of interview, not Google specifically, because

01:18:16   their hiring has changed over the years and I'm not sure what it's like these days, but

01:18:19   that type of hiring thing, not the puzzle hiring, but where you interview people and

01:18:24   you want them to demonstrate their knowledge of theoretical computer science concepts,

01:18:30   there's value in that.

01:18:33   But I feel like you have to hire based on a balance of things.

01:18:36   So maybe hire some guy who is really strong academically and knows a lot of the conceptual

01:18:41   stuff but has never really written a working program in his life. He's like, "Well, on

01:18:45   the balance, he's not a great programmer, and maybe he doesn't even know the language

01:18:49   you want him to write in, but conceptually he knows some really important and heavy-duty

01:18:54   things. So that guy is the hire." The other side of that is, maybe this guy doesn't even

01:18:59   have a degree. Maybe he dropped out of high school for all we know, but he's written,

01:19:04   he has a history of work, of products, of actual software that people use, that maybe

01:19:08   we even use that shows he knows how to create a good working product that people like. But

01:19:13   he doesn't know anything about computer science theory. Maybe that guy on balance should also

01:19:17   be a hire. If you just say there's a minimum bar and you gotta know this minimum theoretical

01:19:22   stuff and we don't care if you have any practical skill, you'll end up with a bunch of like

01:19:26   just cats wandering around in your office thinking deep thoughts and never getting anything

01:19:30   done. And so I'm glad to see that Apple's hiring process recognized, you know, and obviously

01:19:37   was selecting for different things.

01:19:39   And I mean, really, the hiring process can possibly be like, "Homebrew.

01:19:42   We've heard homebrew.

01:19:43   That's pretty cool."

01:19:44   And then you just make sure he's not a crazy person and that he can get along with people

01:19:47   and that he's interested in doing what you want him to do, which maybe is write a package

01:19:50   manager for Swift.

01:19:51   And great, you're hired.

01:19:52   So I think this is a win for Apple and a loss for Google.

01:19:57   Not that Google necessarily needed him to write a package manager for them or something,

01:20:00   but I've just always thought that their hiring is slightly unbalanced in terms of...

01:20:05   And again, like, maybe their whole thing was like, it's worse for us to have a bad hire

01:20:09   than to skip a good hire.

01:20:10   So maybe it's working exactly as designed.

01:20:12   And that there was that study or whatever that went around the web recently that like,

01:20:17   one bad hire is much more costly than missing out on a good hire.

01:20:21   So that could be Google's policy as well.

01:20:22   So maybe everything's working out for everybody, but it just seemed like a happy ending to

01:20:26   what could have been a sad story of this guy who's obviously got some skills and he found

01:20:31   a good home in Apple.

01:20:32   Indeed.

01:20:33   Have you had a chance to look into the Swift 3.0 goals because there's a whole I

01:20:39   Guess this is a repo that is Swift evolution that talks about among other things

01:20:44   What's going to be happening in Swift 3?

01:20:47   Yeah, that's an ongoing thing

01:20:49   There's a mailing list which I subscribe to and it's such high volume that I can't I can't keep up with it

01:20:55   Like not only do I have to have it filtered somewhere

01:20:57   But I tried subscribing to the digest version because I can't handle the activity

01:21:01   I keep thinking it's gonna die down, but boy, yeah, they're

01:21:05   3.0 the goals for the run Oh is still up in the air

01:21:09   People are still thinking of things people are proposing like, you know major things right now

01:21:14   like you're more significant than getting rid of classic for loops and

01:21:17   You know a plus plus and minus minus much more significant

01:21:21   I'm assuming most of them will not be adopted

01:21:23   But the fact that that's how that's what the discussion is that these are being entertained and discussed

01:21:28   It's a little bit scary and it's like haven't we nailed things down more than that by now?

01:21:32   Maybe we haven't maybe this is just exuberance of activity

01:21:36   But it's exciting to see it happening in real time and you can contribute to it

01:21:39   If you're not a dummy like me and respond to the digest version and forget to put a subject line in so your first post to

01:21:44   The manualist has no subject, but you don't do that

01:21:46   Yeah, it's the worst. I

01:21:49   Even have undo send on Gmail. It just took me too long to notice that the little undo thing went away

01:21:54   I need a longer timer because I'm old and stupid

01:21:56   But yeah, the only thing they would say were hard and fast is the things they say are out.

01:22:02   Language level concurrency, not in 3.0.

01:22:05   And it's good to draw that line because that's a whole can of worms.

01:22:12   But minor things, you can see them happening in real time.

01:22:15   Subscribe to the mailing list and just try to read the messages that come up there every

01:22:19   day.

01:22:20   And there's a process, there's a proposal process, there's a discussion.

01:22:23   gets to contribute to the discussion.

01:22:28   Effectively because if you're not going to implement the feature yourself or if Apple's

01:22:33   not going to adopt it, effectively Apple is still in charge of this whole thing.

01:22:36   It's not as if it's a democracy and if we all vote for some silly feature that Apple

01:22:40   doesn't want, then they're not going to have it.

01:22:42   But that's the nature of open source.

01:22:44   If everyone in the community, literally everyone in the community, wants classic four-loops

01:22:48   backs and Apple doesn't, the community can just fork it and go ahead.

01:22:51   Now you're the developer of Swift.

01:22:54   Develop your fork, give it a different name, go nuts.

01:22:57   That's the magic of open source.

01:22:58   But for now, everyone seems to be singing Kumbaya and be perfectly willing to throw

01:23:03   a million proposals at Apple and discuss them at length and then just trust that Apple is

01:23:08   going to pick the ones that it both thinks are useful and have reasonable support.

01:23:12   Yup.

01:23:13   And to hear more of Jon talking like this, I highly suggest that everybody listen to

01:23:17   the talk show episode from this past week featuring Craig Federighi and our friend Jon

01:23:23   here because honestly, like, you know, the Federighi part was big news but honestly,

01:23:27   Jon, I thought your segment was really, really great. You really, really killed it, so good

01:23:33   job there. And I definitely recommend for all listeners, if you're interested in hearing

01:23:36   about Swift being open source, you must listen to that episode of the talk show. It is long

01:23:41   but it is worth it.

01:23:42   >> And it helps if you're a programmer because, yeah, sometimes I feel bad when I go off and

01:23:46   Even John, at a certain point, his eyes are glazing over, but like, well, you know, it

01:23:50   was an episode about Swift, so.

01:23:52   Indeed.

01:23:53   Anything else about Swift open sourcing that you would like to discuss tonight, or would

01:23:57   you like to hold off for another day?

01:23:58   No, we'll say.

01:23:59   I mean, some of the stuff is aging.

01:24:01   Like, I would say if you want to still keep up on the Swift stuff, just do subscribe to

01:24:05   those mailing lists.

01:24:06   You know, it's the best, like, it's an insane amount of activity.

01:24:11   If you have any interest at all, it might feel like, you know, drinking from a firehose.

01:24:14   The other thing you can do is subscribe to people's blogs.

01:24:17   Like Erica had a post about like,

01:24:19   here are the interesting things that happened

01:24:20   on the Swift Evolution mailing list this week.

01:24:23   Her opinion on the, like,

01:24:25   then you don't have to read a thousand messages.

01:24:26   Someone smart will just pick out the things

01:24:28   that were actually interesting

01:24:29   and you can kind of get a summary.

01:24:30   Like even, that's one of the cool features

01:24:33   of the like the Perl 5 mailing list,

01:24:34   which are actually surprisingly active

01:24:36   given the relative popularity of Perl these days.

01:24:39   But even that is just too much to go through

01:24:41   even when it's only like 10 or 15 people

01:24:42   talking back and forth with each other.

01:24:44   So they would have weekly summaries.

01:24:45   Here's what happened on profile porters this week.

01:24:47   And just kind of a summary of everything literally

01:24:50   rather than just the regular ones.

01:24:51   So if you can't handle the mailing list,

01:24:54   the people in the mailing list

01:24:55   that are contributing the most probably have blogs,

01:24:57   subscribe to their blogs and then you'll

01:24:59   get a one step removed.

01:25:00   But anyway, it's exciting times at Swift and at Apple.

01:25:04   - Yeah, and bringing it back around a little bit

01:25:06   to what we were saying earlier,

01:25:08   as Apple is so big and so now sprawling

01:25:13   and as they keep doing things that, I don't know,

01:25:17   have kind of a mixed appeal to people like us,

01:25:20   or at least me, it was like some things they do

01:25:22   I'm really into, and a lot of things they do I'm really not.

01:25:25   (laughs)

01:25:26   And you know, as this happens,

01:25:28   and as we see them stumble here and there,

01:25:30   and as we see things that aren't as good as they should be

01:25:33   here and there, it is really easy to get really negative

01:25:36   about this stuff, and I've been really kind of fighting that

01:25:39   for a while and trying to figure out how to reverse that

01:25:43   that negativity in me and in the way I feel about it,

01:25:46   the way I talk about it.

01:25:47   And I think one way to do it that I really want

01:25:50   to focus more on is that even though the company

01:25:53   is really big and they do some pretty crappy things

01:25:55   here and there, in my opinion, there are areas like this,

01:26:00   like areas with, like the Swift open sourcing

01:26:02   that's going on now, where they really are doing

01:26:06   really great things.

01:26:07   And even if over time those areas that they're doing

01:26:11   really great work in become a smaller proportion of the things they do, at least in the way

01:26:16   that I care about them. The fact is they are still doing a lot of really good stuff like

01:26:20   that. And I say this on my 5K iMac from last year that I absolutely love, using an OS that

01:26:30   I absolutely love that I get all of my work done on and I don't want to change. So there

01:26:35   There is a lot of good there, and I think the way forward in trying to mature my discussion

01:26:42   about this and trying to minimize the negativity unnecessarily is really just to find the positives,

01:26:48   because they are there.

01:26:49   Yeah, I completely agree.

01:26:52   One final tidbit on speaking of the positive bits about Swift.

01:26:56   This is a tweet from Danny Gregg.

01:26:57   It says, "He kind of loves that the Swift team referenced tweets in their source.

01:27:01   This is the exact opposite of radar or GTFO which is from our

01:27:06   Mike Drowitz coined that he's credited with it. Let's say one of the matches from Apple

01:27:11   many years in the past and today to some degree as well is

01:27:15   So you've cornered some Apple person at WWDC and you're like, oh, there's a bug in your API

01:27:20   You're responsible for the whatever library

01:27:22   Well when you do this with the whatever library this thing happens or whatever and Apple people would say you have to file a radar

01:27:27   You can't just tell me you can't just like shout at me in the hallway and tell me that if you pass nil for this

01:27:32   Parameter your crashes right you have to file a radar. That's how we track things. That's our bug tracking system

01:27:37   and

01:27:39   The Swift approach to this is

01:27:41   someone tweets something and

01:27:44   someone on the Swift team sees the tweet and

01:27:47   I guess they make the radar or they add the bug tracking issue or whatever and then when they fix it in the source code

01:27:54   They reference the tweet that told them about this crasher

01:27:56   So that's what they're saying Danny Greg is saying in this tweet

01:27:59   They're basically like if you look at the Swift source code

01:28:01   You will find links to tweets saying

01:28:03   This is why we know about this bug this person tweeted this and then we went and fixed it

01:28:08   Which is totally the opposite of you have to go to Apple's official bug trapper and file a radar

01:28:12   It's useless even talking to me and both of them are good advice

01:28:15   It's like you can't really yell at people the whole in wc and expect something you want to if you want to work you got to

01:28:20   work within the system.

01:28:22   But on the other hand, the Swift team is so engaged

01:28:25   in the community that they're stewing in people's tweets

01:28:29   about these things, and if they see a tweet that says,

01:28:31   "Hey, I've got a crash or an this, whatever,"

01:28:32   they will note the tweet and I guess they add it

01:28:35   into their own bug tracker or whatever.

01:28:37   They'll just paste the link to the tweet

01:28:38   into the source code to remind them later

01:28:40   to click on that link to go back to the tweet and say,

01:28:42   "Oh yeah, that's the guy who said they had this thing,"

01:28:43   and follow up with them or whatever.

01:28:45   It is total community engagement all the way down

01:28:48   to the level of referencing tweets that led to bug fixes,

01:28:51   which is fascinating from the perspective of a company

01:28:55   that popularized the term radar or GTFO.

01:28:58   - I think we're good.

01:29:02   - Thanks a lot to our three sponsors this week,

01:29:04   Squarespace, MailRoute and Automattic,

01:29:06   and we will see you next week.

01:29:07   ♪ Now the show is over ♪

01:29:12   ♪ They didn't even mean to begin ♪

01:29:15   ♪ 'Cause it was accidental ♪

01:29:17   ♪ Accidental ♪

01:29:18   Oh it was accidental John didn't do any research

01:29:22   Marco and Casey wouldn't let him Cause it was accidental

01:29:27   Oh it was accidental And you can find the show notes at ATP.FM

01:29:36   And if you're into Twitter You can follow them @C-A-S-E-Y-L-I-S-S

01:29:45   So that's Casey Liss, M-A-R-C-O-A-R-M,

01:29:50   Auntie Marco Armin, S-I-R-A-C, USA, Syracuse.

01:29:57   It's accidental.

01:29:58   It's accidental.

01:30:00   They didn't mean to.

01:30:02   Accidental.

01:30:03   Accidental.

01:30:05   Tech podcast so long.

01:30:08   So the car's name is the X6M.

01:30:14   That's too many letters.

01:30:15   It's not the M6, it's not the 6M, it's the X6M,

01:30:17   because the X6 is the car and this is the M version.

01:30:20   Not the M Sport, but the actual M.

01:30:21   So it is an M car, but it's not an M car,

01:30:23   'cause the M's at the end.

01:30:25   Anyway, 3.7 seconds to 60.

01:30:27   3.7 seconds to 60 for basically an SUV.

01:30:31   Look at this thing.

01:30:33   It's like you're making a hippo dance.

01:30:36   It's just, you know, it's amazing that you can do it.

01:30:39   And the Car and Driver review of this,

01:30:40   they had a shootout between these cars,

01:30:42   like this one and whatever the Mercedes one is,

01:30:44   And it was like, these cars shouldn't even exist.

01:30:46   It's unholy that they're able to make it.

01:30:49   But why?

01:30:50   It's fascinating, I guess, but no one

01:30:53   should ever buy these cars.

01:30:54   They make no sense.

01:30:55   And it defies the laws of physics

01:30:57   that you make this thing corner this flat and go this fast,

01:31:01   going through slalom cones and doing handling things

01:31:04   in a thing that's shaped essentially like a Jeep Cherokee

01:31:07   with a little bit lower hood.

01:31:09   It is-- what a world.

01:31:11   And Casey probably wants one, although he

01:31:12   would like the American version better, probably.

01:31:14   But yeah, this car is way too good looking

01:31:16   for Casey to want it.

01:31:17   - No, there is nothing good looking about this car.

01:31:19   - Exactly. - It's hideous.

01:31:21   - I know. - Stop, no.

01:31:23   This is way too ugly for me to ever drive.

01:31:26   - Don't worry, it comes in white.

01:31:28   - Oh my God, I hate you so much.

01:31:30   Although I do love you, Jon,

01:31:32   for knowing the very, very nuanced difference

01:31:35   between an M Sport car and an actual M car.

01:31:37   - How could I not, how could I not?

01:31:39   - Well, spend enough time with us two knuckleheads

01:31:41   and I don't blame you.

01:31:43   And, correlated news, since we've already opened the neutral door, I drove a Tesla.

01:31:48   Yes, so tell us about that.

01:31:50   Dear friend of the show, _DavidSmith has quietly bought his family a Tesla Model S, a 90D.

01:31:58   And he and his family visited this past weekend, very, very briefly, as they were kind of swinging

01:32:03   through Richmond.

01:32:05   He took me for a ride.

01:32:07   And I know this is not the David Smith that I met a few years back, because we got to

01:32:12   the end of my road and at the end of the road that my house is on, it tees onto a pretty

01:32:17   big road.

01:32:18   I don't remember the exact words that were used, but something along the lines of "are

01:32:24   you ready" came from Underscore's mouth.

01:32:26   And you have to understand, kids, that Underscore used to drive a Corolla, and although it was

01:32:32   his idea for Marco and I to join him at the two-day M driving school, I think he was the

01:32:39   least aggressive of the three of us.

01:32:40   Is that fair to say?

01:32:41   Oh, easily.

01:32:42   next thing I know he's saying to me are you ready and

01:32:46   Then he stands on the gas while making a 90-degree turn. It's not the gas. Sorry the throttle. Thank you

01:32:53   Later tonight, I'm gonna tape a show off TV so I can watch it later

01:33:00   God, I don't even know where to go from here. But anyway, so he took me first been

01:33:05   He demonstrated autopilot, which was fascinating and petrifying

01:33:11   He drove reasonably briskly, which made me so happy I cannot even begin to describe it.

01:33:19   And then we got back, we went on like a literally five to ten minute loop, which involved a

01:33:23   little bit of curves, a little bit of travel on a highway, and then a little bit of just

01:33:29   like regular surface roads.

01:33:30   And then he offered for me to drive and do basically the exact same circuit.

01:33:36   First impressions, the car doesn't creep when you come off the gas.

01:33:41   However, there's a setting to turn on creep mode, which is extremely weird.

01:33:47   And I bet they don't call it that though.

01:33:49   No, I believe they do.

01:33:50   I think they might.

01:33:51   Creep mode?

01:33:52   Well, I don't know if it's creep mode.

01:33:53   I see what you're saying now.

01:33:54   I didn't get it at first.

01:33:56   That's a good name for it though, because you really don't want that on.

01:33:59   Right, exactly.

01:34:00   And the funny thing was Underscore said to me, "Well, you know, this is going to be more

01:34:03   like your car, which doesn't really creep when you come off the brake."

01:34:06   Which in general is true.

01:34:09   But my brain was in automatic mode, where if you come off the brake, you're going to

01:34:14   move forward.

01:34:15   And it didn't take long for me to get used to the creep not being there, but it was peculiar

01:34:19   because my brain had to like balance this threshold between driving a stick and driving

01:34:25   automatic, which is very peculiar.

01:34:27   He spent a long time, and I'm genuinely glad he did, explaining to me how freaking weird

01:34:33   regenerative braking is.

01:34:36   And you know what?

01:34:37   It's freaking weird.

01:34:38   (laughing)

01:34:40   - That's an option too, by the way.

01:34:41   You can turn off the one foot driving mode,

01:34:43   but it's stupid because you're losing power,

01:34:45   so don't turn it off, just get used to it.

01:34:47   - Yeah, you can turn that down.

01:34:49   - Yeah, I was about to say, just like Marco just said,

01:34:51   you can also turn it down.

01:34:52   I think there were three settings.

01:34:53   I think it's off, medium, and high

01:34:54   or something along those lines.

01:34:56   - I mean, the funny thing is,

01:34:56   it was really easy for me to drive Teslas

01:34:59   because my car with the DCT doesn't creep.

01:35:02   - Oh, that's true.

01:35:03   - And it has so much engine vacuum

01:35:06   when you let off the gas

01:35:08   that it really pulls you back,

01:35:10   almost like regenerative braking.

01:35:11   So like, in the settings you were using,

01:35:14   it actually feels a lot like my car.

01:35:16   - That's true.

01:35:17   - When you're doing that,

01:35:18   you're not getting any gas back from it.

01:35:19   - No. (laughing)

01:35:20   - All you're doing is saving on brake wear

01:35:22   on your horrendously expensive brakes.

01:35:24   - Yeah, that's right.

01:35:25   They just need to last to the end of the lease.

01:35:26   - Oh God, what's the countdown?

01:35:28   - I don't know, four months, something like that?

01:35:30   - Fair enough.

01:35:31   So we eventually take off,

01:35:33   and I got halfway down my little neighborhood street,

01:35:37   And I got going just a hint too quickly,

01:35:40   so I could feel the regenerative braking.

01:35:42   And it is weird, man.

01:35:43   It's not that terribly dissimilar

01:35:46   from driving a Wrangler at speed,

01:35:48   where if you take your foot off the gas,

01:35:50   you would just suddenly kind of stop.

01:35:51   But the difference here again is instead of it being

01:35:55   because there's so much wind resistance

01:35:57   against this rolling box,

01:35:59   in this case it's because like you were saying, John,

01:36:01   you are actually recovering electricity,

01:36:04   which is really cool.

01:36:05   And so what ended up happening was

01:36:06   didn't take me too long to, as one of you just said, drive with basically only one foot.

01:36:11   And it's weird. I liked it. It was kind of a fun game. But it is weird.

01:36:18   That being said, I eventually got onto a larger road and, you know, kind of was creeping a

01:36:23   little bit. And then I stood on the accelerator, or throttle, if you will, and, by God, the

01:36:33   The closest thing I can—the closest analogy I can make is, imagine a turbocharged car

01:36:40   like mine, or like Marco's, where you're in a relatively low gear at reasonably quick

01:36:48   speeds.

01:36:49   So say I'm in, like, second gear at, like, 50 or 60 miles an hour.

01:36:53   So if I stand on the gas at that point, presumably the turbo is already providing boost, and

01:36:59   And if I stand on the gas, I'm gonna go, and I'm gonna go with quickness.

01:37:03   Well, a relative quickness, given that I'm burning dead dinosaurs.

01:37:09   This thing, however, felt like that from a stop.

01:37:13   From any speed.

01:37:14   From any speed, there was instant infinite power.

01:37:18   And the 90D, as I said to Marco after I drove it, it is sufficiently fast.

01:37:25   Now, as I also said to Marco, I'm not used to Marco being satisfied with sufficient,

01:37:31   but it was, without question, sufficiently fast.

01:37:35   - Told you so.

01:37:36   - It is absolutely true.

01:37:38   I still think you're gonna get the performance version, but it is sufficiently fast.

01:37:42   - I actually have to decide, like, this week what I'm getting.

01:37:45   - Oh, really?

01:37:46   - So, I was just looking at the configuration today, like, "Mm, should I just go performance

01:37:50   anyway?"

01:37:52   and I'm thinking, I still think probably not,

01:37:55   but I was tempted, just to let you know,

01:37:57   I was tempted by it.

01:37:59   One thing that I learned while browsing around

01:38:02   their forums, which, hmm.

01:38:05   (laughing)

01:38:06   I've seen a lot of internet communities in my time so far,

01:38:10   and the Tesla forums are not among the most helpful

01:38:15   that I have seen, but one thing that I learned

01:38:22   from these random strangers of very mixed credibility

01:38:26   and relevance skills and writing skills

01:38:30   on a page that loads incredibly slowly

01:38:33   because what year is this?

01:38:35   Anyway, on the official Tesla forums,

01:38:37   I learned that apparently the quoted range that you get

01:38:42   goes down pretty hard over time.

01:38:45   It says you lose like three to five percent a year,

01:38:48   which sounds like a lot.

01:38:50   And the range upgrade to go from 85 to 90D is only 6%.

01:38:55   And the difference between the non-P and the P version

01:39:01   in battery is something like 20%.

01:39:04   So it's actually, it's a pretty big difference.

01:39:07   And so I wonder, I think maybe I really might want

01:39:11   the maximum range and to not get the P version,

01:39:14   if for no other reason, which there are other good reasons

01:39:16   not to get it, but if for no other reason

01:39:18   than to really maximize my initial range

01:39:19   because I'm not even gonna be getting that in two years.

01:39:23   But to give myself more padding on the range.

01:39:26   - Take it to an Apple store,

01:39:27   you get the battery swap for $99, right?

01:39:29   Something like that.

01:39:30   - Only in the world of lithium ion batteries

01:39:32   that just like the ones on your phone,

01:39:33   they get crappier as you use them.

01:39:35   - It's funny you bring that up

01:39:36   because Dave made a couple of interesting points.

01:39:39   The first thing he said was,

01:39:42   if you were going to buy one, which I'm not,

01:39:44   but if you're going to buy one,

01:39:45   it makes it-- - You will.

01:39:47   Three years.

01:39:48   - It's too much money.

01:39:49   If it was affordable, it would have already happened.

01:39:51   I would have traded in my car already.

01:39:52   Same thing about Apple products, same thing about BMWs.

01:39:56   I think the Tesla is slightly more expensive

01:39:59   than the average car than a Mac is than the average PC.

01:40:01   Exactly.

01:40:02   Thank you, John.

01:40:03   In terms of absolute values, if not percentages.

01:40:06   Let's see what happens when the Model 3 comes out.

01:40:08   Right.

01:40:09   We'll see.

01:40:10   But anyway, he made an interesting point,

01:40:12   which was the way this technology is

01:40:14   and with the way the batteries are,

01:40:17   It would probably be a pretty dumb idea to purchase one rather than lease one.

01:40:22   And I've never had a lease in my life, and they seem in a lot of ways like a complete

01:40:26   waste of money to me, but I think he's probably right in this case, that it seems like it

01:40:31   would be silly to purchase a car where when you fill the tank, so to speak, in three or

01:40:38   four years, you will not be able to fill it as high as you were once able to when it was

01:40:42   new.

01:40:43   the plan for the quick charge stations instead of the supercharger that they would take the

01:40:48   battery out and give you a new one? I don't know if that's a thing anymore, but I do remember

01:40:52   that plan. I mean, it wouldn't be a new one, it would just be a different one. Yeah, it's

01:40:55   like getting propane cylinders at the hardware store. You might get a new one, but chances

01:41:00   are you're getting someone's old rusty one. Yeah, I mean, because it's like, what is it?

01:41:03   That's the majority of the cost in the car, obviously, is the big honking battery, and

01:41:06   so there's no avoiding the fact that they're going to get old and they're going to get

01:41:09   crappier and yeah, the lease starts to make sense in that scenario. But the problem is

01:41:13   then when the lease is up, do you lease another one? Like they're not gonna, I guess there's

01:41:17   gonna be a secondary market for them, but at a certain point the battery is crap. Like,

01:41:23   you know, if, just, we haven't been around long enough, like, I guess we could find some

01:41:27   Tesla Roadster and see like, are there Tesla Roadsters out there that just no one wants?

01:41:33   Because it's like, it's like selling a car with a seized engine. It's like, yeah, it's

01:41:36   It's fine, but you just need a new engine.

01:41:38   Yeah, it's fine, but you just need

01:41:39   a new $50,000 battery pack.

01:41:41   - Yeah, this is not a car that I would want to own outright

01:41:44   just because it is changing so much still.

01:41:48   The Model S has only been around for what,

01:41:50   three or four years, so it hasn't been that long, right?

01:41:53   So we still don't really know what the used market is.

01:41:56   When they guess a lease residual,

01:41:58   they really are just kinda guessing it.

01:42:00   So by leasing, you're putting the risk on Tesla,

01:42:04   not on you.

01:42:05   and I think for a product this young

01:42:07   that's advancing so quickly,

01:42:09   plus they keep advancing the features

01:42:12   and the hardware that's available in the car.

01:42:15   In six months after I get mine,

01:42:18   there's gonna be some massive new feature

01:42:20   that my car can't do that I'm gonna want.

01:42:22   'Cause they make things so quickly,

01:42:25   it isn't even on a yearly schedule.

01:42:27   They put stuff out every four months,

01:42:28   like just new features, new changes,

01:42:30   and some of them are software

01:42:31   that the previous cars can get,

01:42:33   and some of them aren't.

01:42:35   So it really is updated as often as a computer is updated,

01:42:39   like with new features and new capabilities

01:42:41   and new hardware.

01:42:42   And so do you really wanna be using a six-year-old one?

01:42:45   Like maybe not.

01:42:46   If you care about all the cool new stuff they keep adding,

01:42:49   I think a lease really does make a lot of sense,

01:42:51   and especially for a car that's this young

01:42:53   in its development cycle,

01:42:55   for an industry that's this young,

01:42:56   like the whole electric car industry,

01:42:58   you don't know what it's gonna be like in three years,

01:43:01   you don't know what the market for these cars

01:43:03   will be like in three years

01:43:04   easy it will be to sell one, or what long-term maintenance might cost.

01:43:09   All those are still such unknowns that leasing makes a lot of sense.

01:43:13   Yeah, I agree.

01:43:14   The other interesting point that Underscore made, and I didn't know this was a thing,

01:43:20   but apparently whatever flavor of battery is in the Tesla, it is understood that charging

01:43:27   it only to about 80 or 90 percent—I forget exactly what it was—is better for the battery

01:43:32   than charging it all the way to 100%. And so apparently what you can do is you can say

01:43:38   to the car, "You know what? Generally speaking, I just charged 80%. It's not—I'm just going

01:43:43   to be around town. It's fine." And then you can request or tell it to do a full max range

01:43:50   charge in the instances that you're about to go on a road trip or something like that,

01:43:54   which I just thought was fascinating.

01:43:55   Is this the extension of the BMWs where you have settings for every possible thing? Like

01:43:59   Like Tesla, it's all settings, settings all the way down.

01:44:03   It's all computers and electronics.

01:44:05   Like they've taken it to the final,

01:44:06   like BMW sounds like they were always taking to like,

01:44:09   the things you can't adjust in other cars,

01:44:10   you can adjust in the BMW,

01:44:12   but some things that you can't adjust at all, right?

01:44:14   And Tesla's like, everything's up for grabs.

01:44:17   Maybe if you want, when you turn the steering wheel to the left,

01:44:19   the wheels go right, it's a setting.

01:44:20   Probably not that one, but they could probably do it

01:44:24   'cause it's electric power steering.

01:44:25   - Yeah, it's ridiculous.

01:44:27   The touchscreen in the center, visually, just the-- I mean, with the screen off, like, just

01:44:33   visually having a 17-inch monitor in the center of the car looks ridiculous and I hate it.

01:44:38   However, it did not take long for me to start to appreciate what that affords you, having

01:44:43   this humongous screen in the center of the car.

01:44:46   Like having a navigation screen that is mammoth.

01:44:50   Being able to go to pain, like, so you can split it in half so that the thing is mounted

01:44:54   and portrait orientation, but you can split it in half so you have like a top half and

01:44:58   a bottom half and do two wildly different things on them.

01:45:01   I thought the touchscreen was reasonably responsive.

01:45:03   I didn't think it was bad.

01:45:05   I thought it was aesthetically sufficient.

01:45:08   I wouldn't say it looked great, but it was okay.

01:45:11   My understanding is they recently did a "iOS 7 update" and before that it looked really

01:45:16   dated from what I've been told.

01:45:18   But this one, I mean, seemed fine.

01:45:21   I still can't get over how quick it was from any speed.

01:45:24   It was just instant.

01:45:25   It was like getting-- it was like one of those linear induction roller coasters.

01:45:28   At any speed, it was just instant power.

01:45:30   I did briefly try the autopilot.

01:45:33   Really weird.

01:45:34   Really, really weird.

01:45:35   Not bad weird, but really weird.

01:45:38   David said that if you leave your hands off the wheel for an extended length of time,

01:45:43   it gets progressively more angry about that fact.

01:45:46   And I believe he said it will eventually just pull the car over and, you know, put on the

01:45:49   the emergency flashes, assuming that you've had some sort of medical emergency or something.

01:45:54   But it was very cool, but very, very weird.

01:45:57   And it was unbelievably cool to me to see, even when I wasn't in autopilot mode, just

01:46:04   because of the proximity awareness to what was going on around me, it would actually

01:46:08   show an icon of the car in front of me on the dashboard.

01:46:12   So not like this specific make and model of that car, but like a representative, there's

01:46:16   a car in front of you and it's about here.

01:46:19   Similarly, I see where you are in the lane, and so it kind of gives you a constant bird's

01:46:23   eye view of where you are within the lane, which was very, very interesting.

01:46:27   I loved it.

01:46:29   I thought it was extremely cool.

01:46:32   I won't say it utterly ruined my car, but if I were to buy a car tomorrow and I could

01:46:39   afford one of these, I would absolutely do that instead of any sort of petrol or gasoline

01:46:47   car.

01:46:48   to the point that I started to think to myself, "You know, maybe instead of getting an air and an SUV,

01:46:54   what if we got her a Model S? It does hold more. It has that front trunk thing."

01:46:59   Eric Meyer Got her a Model S, yeah, right.

01:47:01   Jim Collison Oh, yeah. I floated this idea

01:47:04   briefly. And she looked at me and was like, "Ha, not happening." But I loved it. I absolutely loved

01:47:13   I thought it was extremely cool,

01:47:16   and it seems clear to me that this is the future.

01:47:20   - It's not the future, it's the present in my neighborhood.

01:47:22   They are, I don't know if they're the most common

01:47:25   rich person car, but they're pretty close.

01:47:26   They're just everywhere.

01:47:28   - Yeah, I have, for whatever it's worth,

01:47:29   I have seen a noticeable uptick in them

01:47:32   in just the last three months around here, too.

01:47:35   I'm guessing going all wheel drive,

01:47:37   whenever that was last year, whenever that was,

01:47:40   I bet that helped them tremendously in the Northeast.

01:47:43   Now I really am seeing them all over the place.

01:47:48   - Yeah, I don't even know what to say.

01:47:50   And you know what it was is,

01:47:54   I've become very spoiled by my car,

01:47:55   because my car, and this is not unique to BMWs,

01:47:58   but I do think it's unique to luxury cars.

01:48:01   It's just built well.

01:48:02   Yes, it's had problems.

01:48:03   Yes, it almost exploded a few weeks back.

01:48:06   It's had its share of problems.

01:48:08   But when it's running properly, which is more often than not,

01:48:12   it just is so well built. It just feels so solid.

01:48:17   It just feels right.

01:48:19   And this car, the Tesla Model S, felt the same way.

01:48:22   I didn't miss the sturdiness of it at all.

01:48:25   Whereas when I drive Erin's Mazda 6, which is an

01:48:28   absolutely great car--

01:48:29   it's a little old now, it's a 2007--

01:48:31   but it's a great car, and I really like her car.

01:48:34   It's just not built the same way.

01:48:36   It's not built as sturdy as like a German boat of a car is.

01:48:42   And this is built just as sturdy.

01:48:44   I loved it.

01:48:45   The iPhone app definitely has a bunch of problems, but the fact that you can do so much from

01:48:49   the iPhone app, you can open the sunroof, you can turn on the air conditioning, you

01:48:51   can tell it to charge, you can see what the charge is.

01:48:54   It was incredible.

01:48:55   When we plugged it into my house, it like sort of trickle charged for a little bit to

01:49:00   kind of decide whether or not my electricity coming out of the house was sufficient enough

01:49:03   to do like a full bore charge.

01:49:05   And then it eventually ramped up to,

01:49:07   I think it was like two amps or something like that,

01:49:09   I forget exactly what it was,

01:49:10   but it eventually ramped itself up to like,

01:49:11   I'm going to charge myself as quickly as I possibly can

01:49:14   from a traditional electrical outlet.

01:49:16   Just everything about it was so cool and so well done,

01:49:18   and it doesn't mean it doesn't have problems,

01:49:20   but it was so cool and so well done

01:49:22   and so clearly a nerd's automobile.

01:49:25   I want one.

01:49:27   I want it.

01:49:28   - Yeah, I really am curious to keep talking to Underscore

01:49:30   and seeing what he thinks long term.

01:49:33   And one thing I heard,

01:49:35   I talked to a friend in my neighborhood who just got one,

01:49:38   and I think he probably has similar sensibilities

01:49:41   as me with this sort of thing,

01:49:42   and he said he loves it,

01:49:44   but it is a car made by tech people,

01:49:49   and it has bugs and software updates and stuff.

01:49:53   And so you kinda have to,

01:49:56   you know that you're signing yourself up for that,

01:49:57   but that aside, it is really nice.

01:50:00   And it comes with the upsides of that as well,

01:50:02   you know, like the frequent updates

01:50:04   and adding stuff after the fact.

01:50:05   I mean, my car has gained nothing since I bought it,

01:50:08   except for some things have started to work

01:50:10   a little bit worse over time.

01:50:12   But my car has not gained a single new feature

01:50:15   since I bought it, whereas Teslas get updated over the air

01:50:18   and they get new stuff all the time.

01:50:19   So that's interesting.

01:50:21   And I might not always want that.

01:50:24   There might be some times where it drives me nuts

01:50:25   when it doesn't do what I want

01:50:27   or when I want to be more conservative.

01:50:30   But I think overall, it's probably a net win.

01:50:33   So I guess we'll see what happens.

01:50:35   I mean, we could be looking back on this episode

01:50:38   in three years when you have already bought one,

01:50:42   my lease is about to end, and I'm ranting about

01:50:46   how much I hate all these dynamic software bugs

01:50:49   and everything.

01:50:49   Like, we might be looking back on this and laughing.

01:50:51   But at this moment, I think it sounds like

01:50:54   an okay trade-off overall.

01:50:56   And to get a car that's overall that good,

01:50:59   I think it's worth it.

01:51:01   - Yeah.

01:51:01   One final note while I'm thinking of it,

01:51:04   I was utterly baffled with what to do

01:51:07   when we got back to the house and I parked the car.

01:51:09   The gear shift is on the right hand side,

01:51:11   it's on the column, and that was pretty self explanatory.

01:51:14   Heck, it's a hell of a lot better than BMW automatics,

01:51:17   not the DCTs with the automatics.

01:51:19   - The DCTs are, believe me, even weirder.

01:51:21   I mean, so okay, when you turn my car on,

01:51:24   it starts in park.

01:51:25   As far as I know, once you shift it out of park,

01:51:28   I don't think there's a way to get it back into park

01:51:31   without turning the car off.

01:51:32   - There is on the automatics, I can't speak for the DCT.

01:51:34   - There is, you're right.

01:51:35   The DCTs are totally different for some reason.

01:51:37   And it is so strange.

01:51:39   I mean, the automatics are, the BMW of modern automatics

01:51:43   are themselves incredibly unintuitive and weird

01:51:47   and just messed up.

01:51:48   The DCT is also just as weird, but it's all different.

01:51:53   It's just, it's very strange.

01:51:55   I just shift with the paddles and I don't use the stick

01:51:58   because, unless I need to reverse,

01:51:59   because the stick is just so strange that it's not worth it.

01:52:02   - Yeah, so I put the car in park, that was fine.

01:52:06   And then I look for the ignition switch,

01:52:08   which I guess ignition in and of itself

01:52:10   is a barbaric term now, or archaic I should say,

01:52:12   but there wasn't one.

01:52:14   And I just kinda was looking around confused,

01:52:17   and I think Dave was just kind of enjoying

01:52:19   my being perplexed.

01:52:21   And eventually I looked at him and said,

01:52:23   "What do I do?"

01:52:25   He said, "Just get out."

01:52:26   I mean, the car's always on, effectively,

01:52:28   as long as you're sitting in the car,

01:52:29   car's on, ready to go. So just get out. And when I lock the car, it'll kind of shut

01:52:33   itself off. So weird. So cool. So much the future. I wants it. So yeah, if you are someone

01:52:42   who is interested in advertising on the Accidental Tech Podcast, otherwise known as the KC Buy

01:52:46   a Tesla Fund, please reach out to any one of us. Send us as many emails as you'd like,

01:52:52   because I would like to have a Tesla.

01:52:53   Yes. We're now going to have six sponsors per episode, by the way.

01:52:56   Why is Tesla not buying ads?

01:52:58   They don't need to.

01:52:59   Well, they do.

01:53:00   They do need to.

01:53:01   Yeah.

01:53:02   So we are moving to six to 12 ads per episode.

01:53:05   We're trying to do the math.

01:53:06   Well, we're going to work on that.

01:53:08   If Tesla wants to get me into one,

01:53:09   they're going to have to buy ads.

01:53:12   You still wouldn't buy one.

01:53:13   You would still talk yourself out of it.

01:53:15   Well, I don't have the house for it.

01:53:16   I don't have the space for it.

01:53:17   I don't have to talk myself.

01:53:19   I don't have a burning desire for a Tesla.

01:53:21   Like, if I had enough money for a Tesla,

01:53:23   I would definitely be shopping for different cars.

01:53:25   You guys have already had fancy BMWs

01:53:27   and gotten out of your system.

01:53:28   I haven't.

01:53:29   I would not.

01:53:30   If you give me enough money for Marco's fancy Tesla, I would shop a different car.

01:53:34   What would you get instead for, say, you know, 90 grand or whatever these end up being?

01:53:38   I would look at Mercedes, BMW, Audi.

01:53:44   I wouldn't look at Jaguar, sorry.

01:53:47   You know, hell, I would even look at Acura.

01:53:49   I would try and see what's out there.

01:53:52   That's what I would consider before a Tesla.

01:53:54   Because I'm not ready to have weird car experiments.

01:53:56   You guys will work out the kinks.

01:53:58   The seventh model of Tesla will let us like the iPhone when they come up to the fifth,

01:54:02   sixth, or seventh Tesla one.

01:54:05   Then it'll probably be right for me.

01:54:07   Oh, goodness.

01:54:08   Yeah, so I want it and don't ever hand me the key to your Tesla because you're never

01:54:13   going to get it back.

01:54:14   [BLANK_AUDIO]