ATP

00:00:00 ◼   ► So a giant storm blew through here last night and so I was up all night dealing with it.

00:00:07 ◼   ► I'm very tired.

00:00:08 ◼   ► I will say, so a few systems I had in place ended up working very well.

00:00:13 ◼   ► One of those is I have solar panels and power wall batteries and they back up some of the

00:00:18 ◼   ► outlets and stuff in the house.

00:00:21 ◼   ► Critical stuff like the fridge and a couple of outlets, a couple of lights.

00:00:25 ◼   ► Not the whole HVAC system because we have way too much power for that, but it worked

00:00:30 ◼   ► perfectly.

00:00:31 ◼   ► We had a huge power outage for, well not huge by disaster standards.

00:00:36 ◼   ► It was like a four hour power outage and it worked perfectly fine.

00:00:41 ◼   ► I did learn, I don't know if this is a thing, I had all my Wi-Fi gear, of course that's

00:00:45 ◼   ► backed up because that's the most important thing.

00:00:48 ◼   ► It goes fridge and then all of the networking gear.

00:00:51 ◼   ► And I had a UPS on the networking gear as well.

00:00:55 ◼   ► The outlet that it plugs into is backed up by the solar battery thing, but I had a UPS

00:00:59 ◼   ► there just because I had an extra UPS and I was like, "I'll put it up there, give myself

00:01:02 ◼   ► a little more time if I need it."

00:01:03 ◼   ► And for whatever reason, when the AC power switches from the grid to the solar battery

00:01:10 ◼   ► back up, the UPS thinks there's been a power outage and doesn't take the power and switches

00:01:15 ◼   ► into like, "I'm off mode" and starts supplying power.

00:01:19 ◼   ► And the UPS eventually then ran out and died and turned off.

00:01:24 ◼   ► And even though there was power at the outlet, why?

00:01:28 ◼   ► What happened there?

00:01:29 ◼   ► Is it having something like fake grounding or something?

00:01:33 ◼   ► What could that be?

00:01:34 ◼   ► - It could be under-volted maybe?

00:01:35 ◼   ► - Oh, that's interesting.

00:01:36 ◼   ► Maybe if it only outputs like 100.

00:01:38 ◼   ► - The UPS is super sensitive to having whatever it expects the voltage to be and the power

00:01:43 ◼   ► wall, I don't know how these things work, but I imagine maybe the power wall actually

00:01:46 ◼   ► supplies a little bit less than the actual grid.

00:01:48 ◼   ► Or a little bit more, I mean, either way, if it's not exact.

00:01:51 ◼   ► - Yeah, okay.

00:01:52 ◼   ► - It's a kilowatt thing, I'll plug it in next time and I'll let you know.

00:01:55 ◼   ► - Okay, is there a manual button on the UPS you can press to say, "Hey, power's back,

00:01:58 ◼   ► start using that?"

00:01:59 ◼   ► 'Cause I know my UPSs flip out if there's even like a little flicker, but they realize

00:02:05 ◼   ► pretty quickly that, "Oh, power is actually back on now and I can get off of battery,"

00:02:09 ◼   ► and they switch back.

00:02:10 ◼   ► - We're fortunate that we don't actually have extremely frequent power outages, so I'm not

00:02:14 ◼   ► really a power user, no pun intended, of my UPSs.

00:02:17 ◼   ► I hardly ever need to do anything with them.

00:02:19 ◼   ► So if there's any kind of weird options or buttons or gestures or things I could press

00:02:24 ◼   ► to fix it, I probably don't know about it.

00:02:27 ◼   ► - We had the same storm blow through here yesterday, and I'm not saying it was quite

00:02:33 ◼   ► as bad here as it was there, but it was bad for us anyway.

00:02:36 ◼   ► And we had our power flicker a few times, and many years ago, my parents had a Honda

00:02:44 ◼   ► inverter generator, and a big one.

00:02:48 ◼   ► It's on wheels because it's not the sort of thing you can carry, right?

00:02:51 ◼   ► And I forget exactly how many watts it is, but it's big.

00:02:55 ◼   ► It's physically large, and it can power...

00:02:57 ◼   ► It might even be able to power our HVAC, maybe, but that would probably be a stretch.

00:03:03 ◼   ► Well, anyways, they eventually put a generac on their house, and they long-term loaned

00:03:07 ◼   ► us this generator, and the power flickered like three times.

00:03:10 ◼   ► And I'm thinking to myself, "Oh, do I have to get the generator out?

00:03:13 ◼   ► Is this the time?"

00:03:14 ◼   ► Which is both like, "Ugh."

00:03:15 ◼   ► And also, "Yes, this moment has finally come!"

00:03:18 ◼   ► Oh yeah.

00:03:19 ◼   ► This is like every dad really wants to use the gear that we have.

00:03:23 ◼   ► That's just a thing.

00:03:24 ◼   ► We have all this gear.

00:03:26 ◼   ► We kind of want an occasional need to use it.

00:03:29 ◼   ► I don't want to live somewhere with super unreliable power, but it is nice to have one

00:03:33 ◼   ► blackout a year where it's like, "Yes, I get to use all my cool stuff."

00:03:37 ◼   ► It's such a pain to get it hooked up and whatnot.

00:03:40 ◼   ► We have a bespoke generator hookup right by the fuse box.

00:03:43 ◼   ► We have a generator interlock in the fuse box, as you are supposed to do, and blah,

00:03:46 ◼   ► blah, blah.

00:03:47 ◼   ► But it's just a pain in the tuckus.

00:03:49 ◼   ► And so I was mostly happy that we didn't have to deal with it.

00:03:52 ◼   ► And the one time I have used it in the several years that it's lived here, the one time I

00:03:56 ◼   ► have used it, I forget what the situation was, but we lost power for like an hour.

00:04:00 ◼   ► And then you play the game of like, you don't want to put too much gasoline in the thing

00:04:04 ◼   ► because it's really not...

00:04:05 ◼   ► I think this actually might be fuel injected, but especially for carbureted things, you

00:04:08 ◼   ► don't want to leave gas in there because it'll gum up the carburetor.

00:04:10 ◼   ► And so you're putting in like little teeny, teeny, teeny, tiny bits of gas, just enough

00:04:14 ◼   ► to keep you going so you don't have to run the generator for 18 hours after the power

00:04:18 ◼   ► comes back just to get the gas out of it.

00:04:20 ◼   ► And so it's just, it's the sort of stress that dads live for to your point, but it's

00:04:25 ◼   ► still a moment of stress, nevertheless.

00:04:27 ◼   ► To be clear, your gas powered version of this sounds awful to me because I know that's a

00:04:31 ◼   ► very common thing, but to me, like...

00:04:33 ◼   ► The worst.

00:04:34 ◼   ► I know.

00:04:35 ◼   ► The worst.

00:04:36 ◼   ► I'm not even going to argue that right now, but that, yeah, the idea of this using gas

00:04:39 ◼   ► sounds horrendous to me because you're right, because all of the stuff you have to deal

00:04:43 ◼   ► with.

00:04:44 ◼   ► Like, you know, for me, if we have a power outage that lasts 10 minutes, I just have

00:04:47 ◼   ► power.

00:04:48 ◼   ► Like, I mean, to these handful of outlets, like it just works.

00:04:51 ◼   ► Like I don't have to think about it.

00:04:52 ◼   ► I don't have to go haul out a thing and, you know, start it, hook it up, start it up, dump

00:04:57 ◼   ► a bunch of gas in it, like hear it all that time because, you know, batteries are awfully

00:05:01 ◼   ► quiet in operation.

00:05:02 ◼   ► So it's a very different experience.

00:05:05 ◼   ► That's true.

00:05:06 ◼   ► The difference between you and me is that if we had like a multi-week outage, I can

00:05:10 ◼   ► add gas.

00:05:11 ◼   ► You're f*cked.

00:05:12 ◼   ► No, I'm not.

00:05:13 ◼   ► I have solar topping it off every day.

00:05:14 ◼   ► I can go longer than you can.

00:05:16 ◼   ► Oh!

00:05:17 ◼   ► Damn it.

00:05:18 ◼   ► I thought I had you on that one.

00:05:20 ◼   ► Nope.

00:05:21 ◼   ► All right, I'll allow it.

00:05:22 ◼   ► Well, what if it's really, really rainy for a really long time, Marco?

00:05:25 ◼   ► What then?

00:05:26 ◼   ► I mean, there's still light in the sky.

00:05:28 ◼   ► Like it's not, maybe not as much, but like there's still light.

00:05:32 ◼   ► I genuinely, as much as I'm snarking, I don't know the first thing about how well solar

00:05:36 ◼   ► works in anything but like bright sunlight.

00:05:38 ◼   ► And for all I know, you get like 95% of the power generation, even when it's cloudy.

00:05:44 ◼   ► I have no idea.

00:05:45 ◼   ► No, well, so in my experience, like, I mean, it depends on the season, of course, like

00:05:49 ◼   ► how many just hours of daylight you even have in a day.

00:05:52 ◼   ► So like, you know, in January, even if it's a very sunny day, there's way fewer daylight

00:05:56 ◼   ► hours than you have like in August.

00:05:58 ◼   ► That's true.

00:05:59 ◼   ► But just for reference, like on a really great day in the summer, my panels might make like

00:06:04 ◼   ► 90 kilowatt hours.

00:06:07 ◼   ► And on a really terrible day in January, they'll still make like 20.

00:06:11 ◼   ► So it's not, it's not like nothing.

00:06:13 ◼   ► It's not a ton, of course, but that's a pretty, like that's still a decent amount of power

00:06:17 ◼   ► considering it's free.

00:06:19 ◼   ► And you know, so, so, you know, obviously there's a lot of asterisks on that, on that

00:06:22 ◼   ► free, but like it's, it's substantially easier to get than, you know, having to go get gas

00:06:28 ◼   ► somewhere and everything.

00:06:29 ◼   ► That's all right.

00:06:30 ◼   ► All right.

00:06:31 ◼   ► We should probably get this show on the road.

00:06:34 ◼   ► Let's do some follow up.

00:06:36 ◼   ► Video Alex writes, I was listening to your discussion on the watch bands breaking compatibility.

00:06:41 ◼   ► I think the new bands will most likely be one surface with a clasp or perhaps bracelet

00:06:44 ◼   ► style with magnetic section to hold the watch unit to it.

00:06:48 ◼   ► Surely a pass through hole for sensors, et cetera, in the band.

00:06:51 ◼   ► The best example I can think of is Swatch has a system like this or had a system like

00:06:55 ◼   ► this, excuse me, in the eighties and nineties, which you can see in this eBay listing.

00:06:58 ◼   ► And we will put that in the show notes.

00:07:01 ◼   ► I get what we're going for here, but I don't know, it's just, this doesn't smell right

00:07:09 ◼   ► to me and I can't put my finger on why.

00:07:10 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:07:11 ◼   ► The only reason I can see a motivation for this idea is like, we need more surface area

00:07:15 ◼   ► for the magnetic attachment rumor to be true.

00:07:17 ◼   ► So if, if, you know, people should look at the link that we put in, but it's like, it's

00:07:21 ◼   ► like if you had just a continuous strap that goes around your wrist, there's no watch on

00:07:25 ◼   ► it.

00:07:26 ◼   ► It's just a strap, right?

00:07:27 ◼   ► That you know, slips through a sort of holder that the watch and then magnetically snaps

00:07:33 ◼   ► into.

00:07:34 ◼   ► Right.

00:07:35 ◼   ► And so you have more surface area for the magnets cause your, your, your watch is magnetically

00:07:38 ◼   ► attaching like vertically onto the strap.

00:07:41 ◼   ► The straps aren't pulling on the sides of the watch, but that's got a lot of things

00:07:44 ◼   ► going against it.

00:07:45 ◼   ► I mean, it's difficult not to make that raise the watch higher up off your wrist, which

00:07:48 ◼   ► is the last thing that they want.

00:07:50 ◼   ► It really limits the options fashion wise.

00:07:53 ◼   ► I just, you wouldn't, you know, you don't want to strap underneath your watch.

00:07:57 ◼   ► And I think I'm not sure how much more surface area we give you unless it class the outside

00:08:01 ◼   ► of the watch, like the swatch thing does, but it looks really ugly.

00:08:04 ◼   ► So I'm, I'm gonna put my money against this.

00:08:07 ◼   ► Yeah, me too.

00:08:08 ◼   ► I don't.

00:08:09 ◼   ► So there's a number of problems with this theory.

00:08:11 ◼   ► So number one, as John said, it raises the watch off your wrist more.

00:08:14 ◼   ► So it makes it effectively thicker.

00:08:16 ◼   ► You don't want that.

00:08:18 ◼   ► And you can see, this is all like, you don't have, this isn't theoretical.

00:08:20 ◼   ► The entire rest of the watch world has gone nuts over the last decade or so for something

00:08:26 ◼   ► called a NATO strap.

00:08:27 ◼   ► It's exactly this.

00:08:29 ◼   ► It's like a continuous loop of fabric that goes under the watch and the watch sits on

00:08:33 ◼   ► top of part of the strap.

00:08:35 ◼   ► And it does this.

00:08:36 ◼   ► It pushes the watch up.

00:08:37 ◼   ► It makes it thicker.

00:08:38 ◼   ► It's a certain look.

00:08:39 ◼   ► It works for certain watches, but all the watches that it works on are thin.

00:08:43 ◼   ► And the Apple watch, the watch body is kind of, you know, medium thickness for a watch.

00:08:48 ◼   ► What is it about 12 millimeters?

00:08:50 ◼   ► But then it has the big bulge in the bottom.

00:08:52 ◼   ► It's like, you could kind of make it work, but I think it would still raise up off the

00:08:56 ◼   ► wrist more than not doing this.

00:08:58 ◼   ► And then also if it's attached by magnets, remember magnets hold very strong straight

00:09:02 ◼   ► on, but very weakly to sideways motions.

00:09:05 ◼   ► If that attached magnetically head on, it would very easily get knocked off the strap

00:09:10 ◼   ► with any kind of side impact to it.

00:09:13 ◼   ► The swatch one that they show the picture of has like sidewalls to essentially to mechanically

00:09:17 ◼   ► prevent sideways movement.

00:09:18 ◼   ► Yeah, the swatch one is more like a protective case for the watch almost.

00:09:22 ◼   ► Like it goes all around.

00:09:23 ◼   ► Yeah, but if you had sidewalls, they wouldn't need to go up that high.

00:09:26 ◼   ► You just need them to go up high enough to prevent movement laterally and then the magnets

00:09:30 ◼   ► would prevent the up and down movement.

00:09:31 ◼   ► But see, and see then, I can't see Apple doing that either because then first of all, that

00:09:34 ◼   ► would kind of constrain how large the watch body is and what shape it is based on whatever

00:09:42 ◼   ► the strap ecosystem has been working with so far.

00:09:45 ◼   ► And even like the size of the sensor hole, what if they want to change the sensors in

00:09:49 ◼   ► a future model of watch, but they won't fit in the hole?

00:09:52 ◼   ► It would be like making a bunch of keyboards for the iPad that needed to be exactly the

00:09:56 ◼   ► size for each individual iPad.

00:09:57 ◼   ► It would be nuts.

00:09:58 ◼   ► Yeah, so yeah, I don't see them going in that kind of direction and I don't, and I think

00:10:02 ◼   ► if they did, it would be worse and that's probably why they won't.

00:10:05 ◼   ► All right, I meant to bring this up originally and then it slipped my mind because I didn't

00:10:10 ◼   ► put it in the official show notes.

00:10:11 ◼   ► I only put it in the ones that we eventually released to people.

00:10:14 ◼   ► But anyways, your time shifting was a success.

00:10:18 ◼   ► I thought we should call this out that your time shifting, to some degree, if you had

00:10:22 ◼   ► just done the standard Marco/Casey approach of procrastinating, this problem would have

00:10:27 ◼   ► solved itself.

00:10:28 ◼   ► Yes, I was trying to time shift the Fish concert that had happened and it turns out they just

00:10:34 ◼   ► released the meat of it for free on YouTube for everybody.

00:10:40 ◼   ► What do you mean by the meat of it?

00:10:41 ◼   ► I'm not trying to be funny, I'm genuinely asking.

00:10:43 ◼   ► The meat stick of it, you know.

00:10:44 ◼   ► Well done, well done.

00:10:45 ◼   ► That was a different show.

00:10:46 ◼   ► So no, it was a concert with three sets and the really important New Year's Eve historic

00:10:57 ◼   ► segment of it was only kind of one and a half of those sets.

00:11:00 ◼   ► And so what they released was that part, the big story that all the fans have been waiting

00:11:05 ◼   ► for to be told in this way for 30 years.

00:11:08 ◼   ► And so anyway, that is the part that was released.

00:11:11 ◼   ► It was not the whole concert, but it was the most important part.

00:11:14 ◼   ► Gotcha.

00:11:15 ◼   ► Well anyway, we will put a link in the show notes in case you want to punish yourself.

00:11:19 ◼   ► I'm sorry, in case you want to participate in this sort of thing.

00:11:22 ◼   ► So I posted on it like earlier, like yes, they released it.

00:11:26 ◼   ► I've gotten some amazing responses because people are going to watch it who have no idea.

00:11:29 ◼   ► Because here's the thing, it's basically like an acted out musical of this whole story that's

00:11:37 ◼   ► like ancient Fish lore.

00:11:39 ◼   ► If you're not a Fish fan, this would look ridiculously weird to you.

00:11:44 ◼   ► And I respect anyone who's actually like trying to get into this as their first experience

00:11:49 ◼   ► of this band because that's really diving into the deep end.

00:11:53 ◼   ► And I applaud you if you could make it through it without just being like this is weird and

00:11:57 ◼   ► turning it off.

00:11:59 ◼   ► This is not a great introduction to the band as a result, but it is an adventurous one.

00:12:03 ◼   ► So if that's what you're looking for, go for it.

00:12:05 ◼   ► But it's going to be very strange to people who are not already like dedicated Fish fans.

00:12:11 ◼   ► Indeed.

00:12:12 ◼   ► OLED iPad Pros could start from $1,500 rising to as much as $2,000 plus.

00:12:20 ◼   ► This is according to MacRumors.

00:12:22 ◼   ► MacRumors writes, "This is the second time a Korean source has claimed that Apple's new

00:12:25 ◼   ► iPad Pros will be vastly more expensive than the company's existing models.

00:12:28 ◼   ► Last March, a report by the Elec estimated prices starting at $1,500 and $1,800 for the

00:12:33 ◼   ► 18 and 13-inch models respectively.

00:12:35 ◼   ► If accurate, these price hikes could make the new 11-inch device over 80% more expensive

00:12:40 ◼   ► than the existing 11-inch iPad Pro with LED Liquid Retina display, which starts at $800.

00:12:45 ◼   ► As for the 13-inch model, assuming a base configuration cost $1,800, it would be around

00:12:50 ◼   ► 60% more expensive than the current 12.9-inch iPad Pro with Mini-LED Liquid Retina XDR display,

00:12:55 ◼   ► which starts at $1,100."

00:12:56 ◼   ► Oh, Nelly, I'm already really uncomfortable with the potential expenditures in the next

00:13:01 ◼   ► couple of weeks, but, hoo, I mean, I'm not in the market for an iPad right now, but my

00:13:05 ◼   ► word.

00:13:06 ◼   ► - There's a lot of, it depends here.

00:13:08 ◼   ► A lot of this could be storage tiering, where maybe they just eliminate some of the lower

00:13:13 ◼   ► storage tiers of the iPad Pros, and so it's not quite an apples to apples comparison.

00:13:21 ◼   ► So there could be some of that going on, but I think it really depends for me, whether

00:13:26 ◼   ► this is a good idea and whether the market will bear this, depends a lot on what they

00:13:29 ◼   ► intend to do with the next iPad Air model.

00:13:32 ◼   ► Because what we've seen over the last couple of years is that the iPad Air has been elevated

00:13:39 ◼   ► into many more formerly Pro-only features.

00:13:43 ◼   ► It is still missing some big ones.

00:13:44 ◼   ► For me personally, the big thing that's missing is Face ID.

00:13:48 ◼   ► So if they can bring some of what makes an iPad Pro down to the iPad Air model, which

00:13:53 ◼   ► again, they've been on this path, that I think would free up the iPad Pro to kind of let

00:13:59 ◼   ► it be higher end components, let it be more pricey, let it serve the high end that is

00:14:04 ◼   ► there.

00:14:05 ◼   ► Now, that leaves a large question of what high end is there, and how big that is and

00:14:08 ◼   ► whether this will work or not, but the high end iPad market definitely exists.

00:14:14 ◼   ► I don't think it's very big.

00:14:16 ◼   ► So it kind of makes sense for Apple to make it a more premium thing, extract more money

00:14:21 ◼   ► from the people who are in it, as long as the people who are not in that market have

00:14:26 ◼   ► other models that can serve their needs at their price points.

00:14:28 ◼   ► So if they decide to kind of push the Air a little bit higher, give it a couple of Pro-only

00:14:33 ◼   ► features like Face ID, I think that would free them up, and then I don't think this

00:14:38 ◼   ► is that big of a deal, because there are people who will buy a $1,500, $2,000 iPad.

00:14:43 ◼   ► Those people exist, there just aren't a ton of them.

00:14:46 ◼   ► - I don't know, I think these rumors of pricing are always suspect, because pricing is the

00:14:51 ◼   ► type of thing that Apple can keep very close to the vest, doesn't need to share with anybody,

00:14:56 ◼   ► and change to the last minute, it's even easier to change than things like the name of the

00:15:00 ◼   ► product.

00:15:02 ◼   ► So the idea that some other, I don't know if this is a supply chain thing, but anyway,

00:15:08 ◼   ► sources far away from the people who are actually making the decision would know about the pricing,

00:15:12 ◼   ► seems strange to me, unless of course they're saying, "Look, we know that these new OLED

00:15:17 ◼   ► screens they're gonna put in cost X amount of dollars, and if you just apply Apple's

00:15:20 ◼   ► traditional margins, that means the final product has to be this much, and last Apple's

00:15:23 ◼   ► gonna take a hit to their margins."

00:15:25 ◼   ► And I don't think they gave that to supporting evidence of based on the cost of the screen,

00:15:29 ◼   ► these are gonna have to be X amount more than the old ones, especially an 80% price increase.

00:15:36 ◼   ► I know the OLEDs are probably more expensive than the LCDs, and they're also probably the

00:15:41 ◼   ► most expensive thing in the product, because the SOC, for all its importance, is much less

00:15:46 ◼   ► expensive than that screen.

00:15:47 ◼   ► I still don't think it would justify an 80% price increase based on parts, so then they'll

00:15:51 ◼   ► just be like, "Okay, well the parts don't justify it," but then you have to go to Marco's

00:15:54 ◼   ► idea of like, "Oh, they're just going upmarket, and they're just gonna make them more expensive,"

00:15:58 ◼   ► but how would they know that?

00:15:59 ◼   ► That's definitely the type of thing that Apple would not need to discuss with a large number

00:16:02 ◼   ► of people, so I'm taking all this with a grain of salt, with the only exception being that,

00:16:06 ◼   ► as we all know, if you just go to the top storage tier, these things cost as much as

00:16:09 ◼   ► a car no matter what, because of Apple's magical fairy dust diamond-coated SSD prices, right?

00:16:16 ◼   ► So if they offer this with an 8TB SSD, what is the add 8TB SSD prices, like $2,200 on

00:16:21 ◼   ► max or something?

00:16:23 ◼   ► Let's add $2,200 to the existing price of the iPad, so if they offer an 8TB iPad, yeah,

00:16:28 ◼   ► it's gonna be like five grand or something, and it's stupid and sucks, and we all hate

00:16:32 ◼   ► it, but that could also be the source of this rumor, so when they come out, someone will

00:16:35 ◼   ► go to the configurator and say, "See, the rumors are right.

00:16:37 ◼   ► I can configure this $2,000."

00:16:38 ◼   ► Yeah, of course you can.

00:16:40 ◼   ► Anyway, I'm holding out.

00:16:41 ◼   ► I hope that they don't start at $1,500.

00:16:42 ◼   ► I'll still buy it at $1,500, to be clear, but I prefer not to, because all I want is

00:16:46 ◼   ► that really nice screen, and a really nice 11-inch OLED screen is not really $1,500.

00:16:53 ◼   ► And I know there's an entire computer attached to it and a battery and face ID sensors and

00:16:58 ◼   ► so on and so forth, but boy, that's pushing it, considering even Apple's own 27-inch

00:17:03 ◼   ► monitor, 5K monitor, is $1,600.

00:17:07 ◼   ► I guess that's not OLED, but still.

00:17:09 ◼   ► So here's hoping it's not $1,500 to start.

00:17:13 ◼   ► Anonymous writes, "In my capacity as an AWS solutions architect, I've worked with Apple

00:17:18 ◼   ► over the past two years as they leverage several of AWS's ML services.

00:17:21 ◼   ► From my experience, Apple has mostly been interested in smaller open-source LLMs.

00:17:25 ◼   ► In particular, a crucial factor for the Apple teams I was working with was always the token

00:17:31 ◼   ► context window, or in other words, how many tokens you can fit into the prompt for an

00:17:35 ◼   ► LLM.

00:17:36 ◼   ► This makes sense, especially when thinking about multi-turn conversations with Siri,

00:17:40 ◼   ► as all the previous conversations fit into the context window in order for Siri to keep

00:17:43 ◼   ► track of it.

00:17:44 ◼   ► In 2022, the token context windows for open-source models was usually about 512 tokens.

00:17:49 ◼   ► But as with so many things in the LLM space, we saw massive progress in 2023 to the point

00:17:55 ◼   ► where the best open-source models, for example, Metas, Llama 2, now have a 32,000 token window,

00:18:03 ◼   ► which corresponds to 25,000 words, or between 50 and 100 pages.

00:18:08 ◼   ► With regard to virtual assistants and the fact that LLMs are not optimized for correct

00:18:11 ◼   ► answers, but for plausible sounding answers, one approach that I found very promising when

00:18:14 ◼   ► working with customers is retrieval augmented generation.

00:18:17 ◼   ► This is the process of optimizing the output of a large language model, so it references

00:18:20 ◼   ► an authoritative knowledge base, for example, IMDB, the internet, SQL databases, etc., outside

00:18:26 ◼   ► of its training data sources before generating a response.

00:18:29 ◼   ► The Alexa team has been working a lot with this method to ensure that questions like

00:18:32 ◼   ► Michael Jackson's age are answered correctly.

00:18:34 ◼   ► You can find more info on RAG here, and we'll put a link in the show notes.

00:18:38 ◼   ► And then finally, with regard to how LLMs work, John was correct with his description

00:18:42 ◼   ► of LLMs, just predicting the next word without really knowing where this prediction came

00:18:46 ◼   ► from.

00:18:47 ◼   ► It's equivalent to me writing an email and then someone asking me where those words come

00:18:49 ◼   ► from, to which I would only respond, "I don't know, I guess I read a lot during my lifetime."

00:18:54 ◼   ► Here's a very good blog post that explains how LLMs and the various parameters to manipulate

00:18:57 ◼   ► the probability distributions work.

00:18:59 ◼   ► We'll put that link in the show notes.

00:19:00 ◼   ► And then, just as an addendum, while that post that I just mentioned is almost four

00:19:04 ◼   ► years old, it still holds up and explains accurately how LLMs work.

00:19:08 ◼   ► David Webb writes, "One of the reasons Alexa is so good at general knowledge questions

00:19:12 ◼   ► is that there's a whole community of people writing answers for these questions in return

00:19:15 ◼   ► for karma points.

00:19:16 ◼   ► You can find the Alexa answer site here.

00:19:17 ◼   ► I had no idea this was a thing and this blew my friggin' mind."

00:19:21 ◼   ► Oh, I had no idea.

00:19:23 ◼   ► Right?

00:19:24 ◼   ► That's the Amazon approach, Mechanical Turk.

00:19:26 ◼   ► Yep.

00:19:27 ◼   ► How do they do this?

00:19:28 ◼   ► They pay a bunch of people not too much money to do it.

00:19:30 ◼   ► Oh, well, do they even pay?

00:19:32 ◼   ► Oh, these are really sad.

00:19:34 ◼   ► They're just sad.

00:19:35 ◼   ► But do they even pay or are they just doing it for karma?

00:19:37 ◼   ► Well, I don't know what karma points are, but...

00:19:39 ◼   ► So here's the thing, these two things go together.

00:19:41 ◼   ► Talking about the retrieval augmented generation, the idea that you have a piece of software

00:19:46 ◼   ► that looks to the side at a database of authoritative information before it goes to the LLM, it's

00:19:54 ◼   ► like, wow, that's a clever...

00:19:55 ◼   ► We've talked about this before, some way to either constrain or provide additional data

00:20:02 ◼   ► that is more authoritative than just guess based on your giant soup of knowledge.

00:20:05 ◼   ► But then the other route is, no, don't do that, just pay people.

00:20:08 ◼   ► Or just get people to figure it out.

00:20:09 ◼   ► Just get someone to look it up and put it into...

00:20:13 ◼   ► Essentially how does that retrieval augmented generation, how does that database off the

00:20:17 ◼   ► side get populated?

00:20:18 ◼   ► Just have people putting in answers to questions.

00:20:22 ◼   ► When did Michael Jackson die?

00:20:23 ◼   ► Someone puts that in.

00:20:24 ◼   ► And now that is part of that authoritative database that the software looks up before

00:20:28 ◼   ► it goes to the LLM.

00:20:29 ◼   ► Because that's what you really need.

00:20:31 ◼   ► For IMDB and stuff, you've already got that data, but for just like, what's a thing that

00:20:35 ◼   ► somebody might ask?

00:20:36 ◼   ► I don't know, all the US presidents, their ages and birthplaces, sports results in popular

00:20:43 ◼   ► sports for the past several decades, famous people.

00:20:47 ◼   ► And so just to generate all those facts and put them into sort of a structured form so

00:20:52 ◼   ► you can look aside at that information, the Amazon approach to that is get people to do

00:20:57 ◼   ► it.

00:20:58 ◼   ► That's bananas.

00:20:59 ◼   ► I mean, I'm not surprised.

00:21:00 ◼   ► As soon as I read it, I was like, what?

00:21:01 ◼   ► Oh, yeah, okay.

00:21:02 ◼   ► But still.

00:21:03 ◼   ► All right.

00:21:04 ◼   ► So we have a section of questions from this site.

00:21:06 ◼   ► Does white bread have bleach in it?

00:21:08 ◼   ► What does the name Supreme mean?

00:21:11 ◼   ► And my favorite, what's open heart surgery?

00:21:14 ◼   ► Oh, my.

00:21:15 ◼   ► These are, I mean, see, the thing is, what does Amazon know?

00:21:18 ◼   ► Amazon knows what people ask, because they have thousands and thousands of microphones

00:21:22 ◼   ► at people's houses that are just listening and people are asking them questions and when

00:21:25 ◼   ► they don't know the answer, I'm sure they write them off to the side somewhere and tally

00:21:30 ◼   ► them up and smush them all together and find out, boy, a lot of people want to know if

00:21:33 ◼   ► white bread has bleach in it.

00:21:34 ◼   ► Let's add that to the list and throw it into the list and some human picks it out and writes

00:21:39 ◼   ► in the answer that says, "You hope not."

00:21:42 ◼   ► Oh, I think I found my soulmate.

00:21:44 ◼   ► Somebody asked, "What is the golf tournament?"

00:21:49 ◼   ► How do birds get water in the winter?

00:21:51 ◼   ► That's actually a good question.

00:21:52 ◼   ► That was bad before.

00:21:53 ◼   ► Oh, my God, this is amazing.

00:21:55 ◼   ► Magnets, how do they work?

00:21:57 ◼   ► I'm so, on one hand, some of these are very endearing.

00:22:01 ◼   ► Many of them are just kind of sad.

00:22:02 ◼   ► Well, you know, people need answers.

00:22:06 ◼   ► Where does Cupid come from?

00:22:09 ◼   ► My word.

00:22:10 ◼   ► All right, final note.

00:22:12 ◼   ► Apparently, everything's coming up Marco.

00:22:13 ◼   ► I mean, Milhouse, I mean Marco right now.

00:22:15 ◼   ► Microsoft's keyboards and mice will live on, baby.

00:22:18 ◼   ► Microsoft surprised everyone last year by deciding to discontinue its range of popular

00:22:22 ◼   ► mice keyboards and PC accessories.

00:22:24 ◼   ► I don't know where this is from.

00:22:25 ◼   ► I apologize.

00:22:26 ◼   ► I can't cite the source, but anyways.

00:22:27 ◼   ► I think The Verge had a big article about it.

00:22:28 ◼   ► Okay, after decades of Microsoft branded PC hardware, the software giant has decided to

00:22:32 ◼   ► focus on the Surface brand instead.

00:22:34 ◼   ► Now a unique partnership will see Microsoft's PC accessories live on thanks to Accessory

00:22:37 ◼   ► Maker Incase.

00:22:38 ◼   ► There are 23 products in total that will be available later this year.

00:22:42 ◼   ► We will put a link in the show notes.

00:22:44 ◼   ► Yeah, this is great, you know, because Microsoft over the years has made some pretty great

00:22:47 ◼   ► keyboards and mice, and they tend to make them for a very long time because, you know,

00:22:52 ◼   ► they tend to not be, you know, super exciting.

00:22:54 ◼   ► You don't need to change them that often, and people like them and, you know, businesses

00:22:58 ◼   ► buy a ton of them.

00:23:00 ◼   ► So it's a pretty decent business to be in.

00:23:02 ◼   ► It's, you know, it's not super exciting, but it's, you know, nice reliable income for products

00:23:06 ◼   ► that they've designed and manufactured, you know, oftentimes like 15, 20 years ago, and

00:23:10 ◼   ► they're still making.

00:23:12 ◼   ► So you know, it did kind of baffle everyone when Microsoft, you know, announced like,

00:23:16 ◼   ► "Hey, we're just going to stop doing this after a very long time.

00:23:19 ◼   ► You know, we're going to stop doing this fairly low needs business for reasons.

00:23:24 ◼   ► I don't know why."

00:23:25 ◼   ► And a lot of people were upset because like when you can't get your keyboard anymore,

00:23:28 ◼   ► I mean, the downside is like my favorite keyboard, the Sculpt ergonomic, is extremely short-lived.

00:23:34 ◼   ► It only lasts like two or three years usually before it dies and you have to buy a new one.

00:23:39 ◼   ► So a lot of fans of these keyboards were very upset about this.

00:23:43 ◼   ► And so now, Incase has effectively entered some kind of partnership with Microsoft where

00:23:48 ◼   ► they're not like, you know, making their own brand new things.

00:23:52 ◼   ► They're just basically continuing Microsoft's existing manufacturing operations to make

00:23:56 ◼   ► these keyboards.

00:23:57 ◼   ► They're continuing what sounds like basically the same factories, you know, the same parts,

00:24:01 ◼   ► the same designs, same suppliers.

00:24:04 ◼   ► It'll just have the Incase branding on it and then Incase will then, I assume, support

00:24:08 ◼   ► these.

00:24:09 ◼   ► I guess that's good.

00:24:10 ◼   ► I don't know a ton about Incase.

00:24:11 ◼   ► You know, they seem like one of those kind of like mass semi-budget brand makers of a

00:24:17 ◼   ► bunch of different PC accessories over the years.

00:24:19 ◼   ► So it's probably not a bad thing, you know, for the quality of the product or anything.

00:24:24 ◼   ► It's just a good thing.

00:24:25 ◼   ► They're going to keep having these keyboards and mice that we love so much.

00:24:28 ◼   ► They're going to keep being made.

00:24:29 ◼   ► And that's great.

00:24:30 ◼   ► And I would love for some, you know, in some future I would love for one of these thousand

00:24:35 ◼   ► different, you know, fancy keyboard companies that exist to make something that is as ergonomic

00:24:40 ◼   ► as the Sculpt ergonomic keyboard but no one ever has.

00:24:43 ◼   ► Yes, I know about the new Logitech one.

00:24:45 ◼   ► It's not.

00:24:46 ◼   ► Like no one ever has matched this keyboard.

00:24:50 ◼   ► Please, for the love of all that is holy, someone make ergonomic keyboards that A, make

00:24:55 ◼   ► them tilt downwards towards the top of them, not downwards towards the bottom.

00:25:01 ◼   ► So that's called reverse tilting.

00:25:02 ◼   ► B, have kind of a bulbous peak in the middle of them that then slopes downward to the left

00:25:08 ◼   ► and right.

00:25:09 ◼   ► That's called, I believe that's called tenting.

00:25:11 ◼   ► And C, does not have the giant extended numpad on the right side.

00:25:16 ◼   ► That way you have to keep your mouse like all the way in New Jersey off to the right

00:25:19 ◼   ► side and it forces your arm to bend out more.

00:25:22 ◼   ► Ergonomic keyboards are very simple to make.

00:25:23 ◼   ► If you follow those three guidelines, no one does it.

00:25:26 ◼   ► I don't know why.

00:25:27 ◼   ► But anyway, until anyone else does, we can now buy the Microsoft once again through,

00:25:32 ◼   ► well we can soon rather, buy the Microsoft once again through Incase.

00:25:36 ◼   ► If you look at the, that article, they list the products that Incase will be making.

00:25:42 ◼   ► I think it's like 23 individual products.

00:25:45 ◼   ► Guess what's not on that list?

00:25:46 ◼   ► Oh no.

00:25:47 ◼   ► What?

00:25:48 ◼   ► My mouse.

00:25:49 ◼   ► Oh no!

00:25:50 ◼   ► Come on!

00:25:51 ◼   ► I thought it was a Marco oh no, it turns out it's a John oh no.

00:25:55 ◼   ► Oh no, I checked.

00:25:56 ◼   ► Yeah, I was so disappointed.

00:25:58 ◼   ► At first, when I first saw the story, I'm like, oh my mouse is there, I'm fine.

00:26:00 ◼   ► But it's not.

00:26:01 ◼   ► It's the Bluetooth ergonomic mouse, which I think does not support a wired connection,

00:26:07 ◼   ► which is how I use mine.

00:26:08 ◼   ► So it's the same shape as mine, but then I couldn't use it plugged in and I haven't had

00:26:14 ◼   ► good luck with the various wireless things here.

00:26:16 ◼   ► So I don't know what I'm going to do.

00:26:18 ◼   ► I mean, they make the Bluetooth ergonomic mouse, why don't they also make the Microsoft

00:26:22 ◼   ► Precision mouse, which is just the Bluetooth ergonomic mouse, but with a wired connection.

00:26:26 ◼   ► Or maybe what they're calling the Bluetooth ergonomic mouse will also have the wired connection.

00:26:30 ◼   ► We'll see, I can't tell from the picture, but it's not looking great for my mouse preferences.

00:26:34 ◼   ► And my mouse, kind of like Marco's keyboard, as we noted, aside from all the problems I

00:26:37 ◼   ► have with it, the rubber thing on the side wears out and gets like a soft, gross spot

00:26:42 ◼   ► on it.

00:26:43 ◼   ► So it has a lifetime ticking down on it as well.

00:26:47 ◼   ► Sounds like great products.

00:26:48 ◼   ► I mean, to be fair, like I don't think that's that unreasonable for keyboards and mice,

00:26:53 ◼   ► which are these like very high moving parts, high motion, high usage kind of product.

00:27:00 ◼   ► It's unreasonable for, I don't know how to speak to your keyboard, but I think it's unreasonable

00:27:03 ◼   ► for a mouse because of what I think I had my other, my original mouse for what maybe

00:27:09 ◼   ► it was like one or two years, maybe it was less than a year, but like we have materials

00:27:14 ◼   ► for mice that can withstand holding and using it.

00:27:16 ◼   ► I use mice for years and years and years.

00:27:19 ◼   ► And if they just make the whole mouse out of that plastic, you're fine.

00:27:23 ◼   ► Or if you make it out of a rubber that survived, like Logitech rubber, I've never worn through

00:27:26 ◼   ► the rubber on a Logitech mouse.

00:27:27 ◼   ► I'm sure it varies depending on your skin chemistry and which particular mouse you have.

00:27:32 ◼   ► But like, I'm not doing anything really weird to my mouse.

00:27:35 ◼   ► It should last way longer than these last, like way, way, way, way, way longer.

00:27:39 ◼   ► Like, and I feel the same way about your keyboard.

00:27:41 ◼   ► I use an Apple extended 2 keyboard for like, you know, 10, 12 years and it was fine despite

00:27:46 ◼   ► the, you know, broken off F5 key.

00:27:49 ◼   ► And that was, that was the fault of a pocket knife, not the keyboard.

00:27:52 ◼   ► I think your standards are too low for peripherals.

00:27:54 ◼   ► How's your, what do you call it?

00:27:56 ◼   ► Apple mouse.

00:27:57 ◼   ► Is there anything wearing off on that one?

00:27:59 ◼   ► I mean, very slowly, the big long strips of plastic that kind of serve as like anti-skid

00:28:04 ◼   ► things, they very slowly develop scratches over time, but otherwise, no.

00:28:09 ◼   ► And you can replace the little Teflon feet.

00:28:11 ◼   ► Like you can just take those out and get, put new ones in there.

00:28:13 ◼   ► That's on most good mice.

00:28:15 ◼   ► But yeah, this, again, the only reason I'm using the Microsoft one is one, the scroll

00:28:19 ◼   ► wheel feels really good.

00:28:21 ◼   ► It feels the way I want it to feel that people have different preferences and their squirrel

00:28:24 ◼   ► wheels, but I liked the way this one feels.

00:28:25 ◼   ► And two, the shape of this mouse is as close as I could get to the shape that I prefer.

00:28:30 ◼   ► The scroll wheels are like transmissions.

00:28:32 ◼   ► You know, what's better than a manual transmission.

00:28:34 ◼   ► No transmission.

00:28:35 ◼   ► You know, it's better than a great scroll wheel.

00:28:38 ◼   ► No scroll wheel.

00:28:39 ◼   ► I kind of like squirrel wheels.

00:28:40 ◼   ► The magic mouse, man.

00:28:41 ◼   ► It gets me every day.

00:28:42 ◼   ► It's like you try to use anything else.

00:28:44 ◼   ► It's like, oh, I got to click this thing.

00:28:45 ◼   ► Like what year is this?

00:28:46 ◼   ► See, the funny thing is, so I am, I am a track, a Magic Trackpad user for the last several

00:28:53 ◼   ► years.

00:28:54 ◼   ► We've been over this before, but I was one of the last people that I knew to use a Magic

00:28:57 ◼   ► Mouse.

00:28:58 ◼   ► And the thing that the Magic Mouse that got me was not the scrolling and the initial,

00:29:02 ◼   ► inertial, excuse me, scrolling, which I agree with you, Marco.

00:29:05 ◼   ► I'm not arguing that a bit, but what got it, got me on the Magic Mouse, which I guess you

00:29:09 ◼   ► can do this with some of these like MX Master mice or whatever, but you can do the two fingers

00:29:13 ◼   ► side to side, or maybe, no, I'm sorry.

00:29:14 ◼   ► It was two fingers side to side, go forward and back.

00:29:16 ◼   ► That's what it is on Safari.

00:29:18 ◼   ► And three fingers side to side is what I was trying to say to go through different virtual

00:29:22 ◼   ► screens, which I think I'm the only one of the three of us that does that, but you know,

00:29:25 ◼   ► to go through different spaces.

00:29:26 ◼   ► And so it's the lateral two and three finger things that really kept me on the Magic Mouse

00:29:31 ◼   ► for years.

00:29:32 ◼   ► And I don't remember what the impetus was for me to go to the track pad.

00:29:36 ◼   ► I think I just wanted to give it a shot and then ended up really liking it.

00:29:40 ◼   ► But I've been all track pad.

00:29:41 ◼   ► I think since my iMac Pro, if I'm not mistaken, it's been a fair bit of time now.

00:29:46 ◼   ► There's a lot more room on a track pad to three finger swipe sideways.

00:29:49 ◼   ► I mean, doing that on the surface of a mouse is tight.

00:29:52 ◼   ► Or maybe, I'm sorry, maybe it's wrong.

00:29:53 ◼   ► Maybe it's one finger left and right.

00:29:54 ◼   ► I forget.

00:29:55 ◼   ► It's been so long since I've used Magic Mouse.

00:29:56 ◼   ► I have one.

00:29:57 ◼   ► I just haven't used it.

00:29:58 ◼   ► In fact, I think I have my iPad Pros one, but I've used them so rarely.

00:30:01 ◼   ► But whatever the situation was, it was like one or two fingers to go back and forward

00:30:04 ◼   ► in Safari.

00:30:05 ◼   ► I wanted to say it was two and then like three to do spaces if memory serves.

00:30:08 ◼   ► But again, I might have that wrong.

00:30:10 ◼   ► But if it's wrong, it doesn't matter.

00:30:12 ◼   ► But you get my Mac Pro came with a Magic Mouse.

00:30:14 ◼   ► It's still in the box.

00:30:17 ◼   ► I think it came with it.

00:30:18 ◼   ► It must have come with one, right?

00:30:19 ◼   ► I don't remember.

00:30:20 ◼   ► Yeah, it was the game of the keyboard and I'm using the keyboard.

00:30:22 ◼   ► So yeah, the mouse has got to be in the box.

00:30:23 ◼   ► Well, it could have come with a track pad.

00:30:24 ◼   ► I think you could have optioned one or the other or I would never have optioned the track

00:30:27 ◼   ► pad.

00:30:28 ◼   ► Although now I have a track pad.

00:30:29 ◼   ► We finally found my wife's old track pad.

00:30:30 ◼   ► We were cleaning up in the office and now I have this track pad sitting on the desk in

00:30:33 ◼   ► front of me.

00:30:34 ◼   ► I'm so sorry that you have to be that close to a piece that's similar to a laptop.

00:30:37 ◼   ► Yeah, I don't know what I'm going to do with it.

00:30:40 ◼   ► I got to, is there, they're hard to store because they're all got a wedge shape.

00:30:41 ◼   ► I'm like, maybe should I try to use it?

00:30:42 ◼   ► So just put it on my desk.

00:30:43 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:30:44 ◼   ► It's just sitting there now.

00:30:45 ◼   ► You try to store it in a stack and everything slides off slowly.

00:30:48 ◼   ► It's paired to the computer.

00:30:50 ◼   ► Like I moved the cursor with it and like, okay, nevermind.

00:30:54 ◼   ► Do grasshoppers have tongues?

00:30:56 ◼   ► Are we back on Alexa?

00:30:58 ◼   ► This is like, what is it?

00:31:00 ◼   ► Yahoo Answers?

00:31:01 ◼   ► What's the definition of watering?

00:31:03 ◼   ► Yeah, the origin of how is Babby formed?

00:31:06 ◼   ► What's the difference between couch and sofa?

00:31:08 ◼   ► That's a good question.

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00:32:48 ◼   ► [Music]

00:32:52 ◼   ► Apple announced that the Vision Pro is going to launch on February 2 and you'll be able

00:32:57 ◼   ► to order it on Friday the 19th.

00:32:59 ◼   ► Apple, I'm very surprised, is continuing to be kind to these coasters within 8 a.m. introduction

00:33:06 ◼   ► time which I am here for.

00:33:08 ◼   ► I am very appreciative of that, whether or not I end up ordering one.

00:33:12 ◼   ► Basically, it will be available at all United States Apple Store locations and it will also

00:33:17 ◼   ► be available online.

00:33:19 ◼   ► It's unclear to me and I don't think it has been made clear whether or not you must pick

00:33:23 ◼   ► up at a store which was a rumor that we heard for a while.

00:33:27 ◼   ► You can get lenses for it.

00:33:28 ◼   ► You can get reader style optical inserts for $100.

00:33:33 ◼   ► I presume that's $100 for a pair.

00:33:36 ◼   ► I actually don't know.

00:33:37 ◼   ► I would, yeah.

00:33:38 ◼   ► Yeah, it's interesting they didn't say that but it does say plural so I'm going to say

00:33:41 ◼   ► pair.

00:33:42 ◼   ► Yeah, reading glasses lenses are very cheap.

00:33:43 ◼   ► They are in Apple land, they're $100.

00:33:45 ◼   ► Yes, everywhere else it's like $5.

00:33:47 ◼   ► Apple.

00:33:48 ◼   ► You can buy them at a drug store for $2 or from Apple for $100.

00:33:52 ◼   ► And then if you need full on prescription lenses or optical inserts, excuse me, that's

00:33:56 ◼   ► $150.

00:33:57 ◼   ► Again, the assumption is for a pair but that isn't absolutely stated so we're not sure.

00:34:03 ◼   ► And that is actually quote unquote inexpensive as compared to the ridiculous system we have

00:34:07 ◼   ► in the US for actual prescription lenses that you buy.

00:34:12 ◼   ► Some people were discussing this online about the pricing for the prescription lenses in

00:34:16 ◼   ► particular were thinking if you were to buy glasses, you know, plain old glasses at a

00:34:20 ◼   ► regular glasses store in the US and you had prescription lenses and you got those lenses

00:34:24 ◼   ► for $150, they're going to be the cheapest lenses the place has to sell to you.

00:34:29 ◼   ► So they're not going to be this super fancy high index, you know, plastic where they'll

00:34:35 ◼   ► make lenses thinner or whatever.

00:34:36 ◼   ► Probably less of an issue because inside a headset and no one's looking at them anyway.

00:34:40 ◼   ► But I do wonder what material these are made out of and what the index is.

00:34:44 ◼   ► High index is like how much does this bend the light for the thickness, right?

00:34:48 ◼   ► And so if you if you have really bad vision like I do to get something that is my correct

00:34:52 ◼   ► prescription and it's not high index plastic, the glasses are incredibly thick.

00:34:57 ◼   ► You talk about Coke bottle glasses, but they're such a number of those things that make sense

00:35:01 ◼   ► to older people, maybe not younger people.

00:35:03 ◼   ► Coca Cola used to come in glass bottles and you cracked off the bottom of the glass bottle,

00:35:07 ◼   ► the glass in the bottom was thicker.

00:35:09 ◼   ► And if you had really thick glasses, people would say you had Coke bottle glasses because

00:35:12 ◼   ► they look like really, really thick glass.

00:35:15 ◼   ► I did.

00:35:16 ◼   ► I got them once.

00:35:17 ◼   ► My parents got me non high index plastic glasses.

00:35:20 ◼   ► They were so thick.

00:35:21 ◼   ► They were like a centimeter thick.

00:35:22 ◼   ► It was ridiculous looking, just huge, massive.

00:35:26 ◼   ► Every time you see like glasses frames in the store or like a model wearing glasses,

00:35:31 ◼   ► they're always wearing them with these lenses that are like wafer thin.

00:35:35 ◼   ► Right.

00:35:36 ◼   ► But when you have actual bad vision and you don't use high index plastic, the lenses become

00:35:40 ◼   ► thicker than the glasses frame very quickly, like five times thicker, not just a little

00:35:46 ◼   ► bit thicker.

00:35:47 ◼   ► So it's no longer like, oh, look at this person wearing these glasses with probably no lenses

00:35:51 ◼   ► in them at all.

00:35:52 ◼   ► They look fashionable.

00:35:53 ◼   ► They don't look fashionable when a centimeter thick piece of plastic is in the middle of

00:35:55 ◼   ► each one of them.

00:35:56 ◼   ► Anyway, it's interesting to see what kind of material these $150 prescription lenses

00:36:02 ◼   ► are made out of.

00:36:03 ◼   ► And again, maybe it makes no difference inside the headset, but I have to think thickness

00:36:07 ◼   ► might be some factor because some people are using this headset with no lenses.

00:36:10 ◼   ► People who are blessed with very good vision and that means the screens like these lenses

00:36:16 ◼   ► are an additional thickness between you and the screen.

00:36:20 ◼   ► And I don't know if you're, if you have very long eyelashes, are they going to brush against

00:36:24 ◼   ► the prescription lenses because they're so close to the screen?

00:36:27 ◼   ► Maybe you two can answer these questions, but you can't talk about it.

00:36:29 ◼   ► Well, we'll find out in a little bit.

00:36:30 ◼   ► Anyway, I'm mostly happy with these prices because even if it's per eye $150, it's still

00:36:36 ◼   ► less than I was fearing they would be.

00:36:38 ◼   ► So I guess that's good.

00:36:41 ◼   ► I wonder too, I mean, first of all, like, you know, the prescription lens industry is

00:36:44 ◼   ► famously like very inflated.

00:36:46 ◼   ► But I wonder too, like they, there's so many things that like, you know, reasons that you

00:36:50 ◼   ► would get higher end prescription lenses that wouldn't really matter inside the Ozenpro.

00:36:54 ◼   ► You know, you mentioned thickness, like, you know, a lot of, I would assume a lot of the

00:36:57 ◼   ► reason why thin lenses are in fashion is first of all, because they look better, like fashionably

00:37:01 ◼   ► wise.

00:37:02 ◼   ► Second of all, because they're lighter weight.

00:37:04 ◼   ► In here, neither of those things is substantially significant, you know.

00:37:09 ◼   ► And also, you know, all the different coatings you can get, like the anti glare coating,

00:37:13 ◼   ► anti scratch, like all these different coatings they try to upsell you on with prescription

00:37:16 ◼   ► lenses.

00:37:17 ◼   ► None of those are really in play here, like that they wouldn't really matter here or be

00:37:21 ◼   ► necessary.

00:37:22 ◼   ► So maybe the combination of all those factors means that it really is not that expensive

00:37:25 ◼   ► to give you prescription lenses.

00:37:27 ◼   ► So the two things that I think are still factors, like I said, is distance, how much space is

00:37:31 ◼   ► there for a really, really thick lens, right?

00:37:33 ◼   ► And the second thing is like sort of the sidewall dimension, like the thicker the glass is,

00:37:37 ◼   ► the bigger the sidewall and the sidewalls are not really participating optically, except

00:37:43 ◼   ► in so far as light may enter the lens and bounce off the sidewall and come back to you

00:37:48 ◼   ► and you don't want that light, like especially since the sides of lenses are often not like

00:37:52 ◼   ► the lenses themselves are clear and polished and everything, but the sidewalls are kind

00:37:55 ◼   ► of like smoky, you know what I mean?

00:37:57 ◼   ► Like that, I know from experience, having worn those glasses that were way too thick,

00:38:01 ◼   ► that were the not high index plastic, those thick smoky sidewalls often were sort of in

00:38:07 ◼   ► my peripheral vision and I felt like light would like light them up, like it would light

00:38:10 ◼   ► up frosted glass and that you probably don't want even inside a headset.

00:38:14 ◼   ► So we'll see.

00:38:16 ◼   ► All right.

00:38:17 ◼   ► So the Vision Pro comes with a solo knit band, which I think is the big thick thing they

00:38:25 ◼   ► pictured most often that goes around the back of your head.

00:38:28 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:38:29 ◼   ► It's like a catcher's mitt on the back of your head.

00:38:30 ◼   ► Exactly.

00:38:31 ◼   ► It was in, I think it was the only thing in the original, like the launch video and all

00:38:35 ◼   ► of the launch artwork for the headset with the exception of maybe one image, it was that

00:38:39 ◼   ► one big single strap that goes behind your head and gets really wide when it goes in

00:38:44 ◼   ► the back of your head.

00:38:46 ◼   ► Then it also has a dual loop band, which Apple says gives users two options for the fit that

00:38:51 ◼   ► works best for them, or I guess between the two bands.

00:38:53 ◼   ► Is that the Hermes version that goes around your head twice?

00:38:58 ◼   ► It's one above your head and one behind your head, right?

00:39:01 ◼   ► And then there's...

00:39:02 ◼   ► Oh, wait, wait.

00:39:03 ◼   ► No, that's what the two options they're talking about are.

00:39:05 ◼   ► One is the solo.

00:39:06 ◼   ► Right.

00:39:07 ◼   ► I have these names.

00:39:08 ◼   ► One is the single strap band and one is the one with two straps, right?

00:39:10 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:39:11 ◼   ► Right.

00:39:12 ◼   ► And then it also includes a light seal, two light seal cushions.

00:39:16 ◼   ► I guess, what are the differences between them there?

00:39:18 ◼   ► So the light seal is the big thick part and the cushion is the part that's actually pressing

00:39:22 ◼   ► against your face?

00:39:23 ◼   ► Yes.

00:39:24 ◼   ► And that's probably why, as the father of a child who has used a VR headset a lot very

00:39:30 ◼   ► heavily, the part that squishes against your face gets really gross and stinky.

00:39:34 ◼   ► Cool.

00:39:35 ◼   ► So it's good to be able to replace those easily.

00:39:37 ◼   ► I wonder if they're machine washable.

00:39:39 ◼   ► Yeah, for goodness, who knows?

00:39:41 ◼   ► So yeah, two light seal cushions, an Apple Vision Pro cover for the front of the device.

00:39:45 ◼   ► I saw that.

00:39:46 ◼   ► I saw that people have patent filings on it.

00:39:48 ◼   ► I'm like, "This is interesting.

00:39:49 ◼   ► I wonder if they'll ship this," and lo and behold, a few days later, a cover for the

00:39:53 ◼   ► front of the device.

00:39:55 ◼   ► The front of the device, I know there's a screen there and it's made of glass and it

00:39:59 ◼   ► shows your eyeballs or whatever, but it really doesn't participate much in the process of

00:40:02 ◼   ► what you see as the wearer.

00:40:04 ◼   ► So I guess you're covering the screen so people can get a scratch-free view of your virtual

00:40:11 ◼   ► eyeballs?

00:40:13 ◼   ► Will it operate with the cover or will the cameras shoot through the cover?

00:40:17 ◼   ► Are there openings for all the cameras?

00:40:19 ◼   ► I'm assuming this is for storage and transport.

00:40:21 ◼   ► Yeah, that's what I thought.

00:40:23 ◼   ► That's why I assume.

00:40:25 ◼   ► For a cover to actually have it be operated through, you'd have to have openings for all

00:40:29 ◼   ► the cameras, all the vent holes, the digital crown, all the different parts of it that

00:40:33 ◼   ► are required.

00:40:34 ◼   ► They probably are not doing that.

00:40:35 ◼   ► It's probably just a cover for storage.

00:40:37 ◼   ► Yeah, that would be like a screen protector, but this has a cover for the front of the

00:40:40 ◼   ► device.

00:40:41 ◼   ► I'm kind of picturing the weird bra they have on the AirPods Max, but for this.

00:40:46 ◼   ► Yeah, because that went so well.

00:40:47 ◼   ► Well, similar, because again, if I'm going to transport this, something that merely covers

00:40:54 ◼   ► the screen on the front is not doing the job of making this transportable.

00:40:59 ◼   ► The whole rest of this ungainly thing is still out there flopping around, right?

00:41:03 ◼   ► And that's one of the big, I think, restrictions and challenges on this whole design they've

00:41:08 ◼   ► gone with, of having the outside be a screen.

00:41:11 ◼   ► Again, look at every other VR headset.

00:41:13 ◼   ► The outside is just a flat piece of plastic with some sensors on it.

00:41:16 ◼   ► And Apple's like, "No, this is going to be a single giant piece of glass that'll show

00:41:20 ◼   ► some creepy version of your eyes through it."

00:41:22 ◼   ► And it's a bunch of trade-offs for sure.

00:41:25 ◼   ► And one of the trade-offs is, well, it's more expensive and bigger and much heavier and

00:41:29 ◼   ► everything else.

00:41:30 ◼   ► Another one of the trade-offs is that it becomes much harder to transport.

00:41:34 ◼   ► All right.

00:41:35 ◼   ► And then you get a free, for the low, low cost of $3,500 plus dollars, polishing cloth,

00:41:39 ◼   ► which is very exciting.

00:41:41 ◼   ► You get a battery, which is compulsory to use the device, a USB-C charge cable, and

00:41:47 ◼   ► a USB-C power adapter.

00:41:49 ◼   ► So that is what's in the box, which to be honest is not an insignificant amount of stuff.

00:41:54 ◼   ► I mean, that is a fair bit of stuff.

00:41:55 ◼   ► I saw some rumors and discussion, again, based on patent filings or whatever, of other possible

00:42:01 ◼   ► strap options, including...

00:42:03 ◼   ► So the straps that they show in their PR photos have that little, I don't know, little pod

00:42:09 ◼   ► that has the speakers in it that fires the sound down into your ears.

00:42:12 ◼   ► But of course, if you decided that you're going to use your AirPods or something with

00:42:16 ◼   ► it rather than using those speakers, you don't need those pods anymore.

00:42:20 ◼   ► So like we saw when this thing launched, these straps are actually made up of two portions.

00:42:24 ◼   ► One is kind of a stiff portion that connects to the headset, and two is the loose sort

00:42:29 ◼   ► of strappy thing that goes around your head that you could replace the stiff portions

00:42:33 ◼   ► with ones that don't have the speaker pods in them for a sleeker or lighter weight thing.

00:42:37 ◼   ► But it seems like that's not a thing that they're shipping, it was just something they

00:42:40 ◼   ► considered during the design.

00:42:41 ◼   ► - Yeah, overall, this is actually pretty well accessorized, it seems, right in the box.

00:42:47 ◼   ► And this is just one of the wonderful things of it being a brand new product line.

00:42:51 ◼   ► Like originally, the iPod came with the dock and the cable, all this other stuff, right?

00:42:56 ◼   ► And then as the iPod line went on, it became cheaper and cheaper, and there was a lot less

00:43:02 ◼   ► stuff in the box and more stuff that you had to buy separately.

00:43:05 ◼   ► Same with the iPhone.

00:43:06 ◼   ► The iPhone used to come with more stuff in the box than it does now.

00:43:09 ◼   ► - Like a charger, at least this comes with something you can charge it with.

00:43:12 ◼   ► - So at least right now, we're still in the really early part of this, and so they're

00:43:16 ◼   ► gonna give us all the accessories, but I bet in five years, whatever Vision line products

00:43:21 ◼   ► are out then, you're gonna see a lot less of this stuff coming with them.

00:43:24 ◼   ► - I mean, the most glaring one are the straps, 'cause it's like, okay, one of these straps

00:43:28 ◼   ► is probably going to quote unquote win, you know what I mean?

00:43:31 ◼   ► Like I know people's heads are shaped differently and everything, but them shipping both the

00:43:36 ◼   ► straps is kind of like, we couldn't figure out one strap that worked the best for everybody,

00:43:41 ◼   ► so here's two, good luck.

00:43:45 ◼   ► And obviously the one with the top strap should help a little bit with the weight, because

00:43:48 ◼   ► it literally goes over the top of your head rather than having to pinch the thing against

00:43:51 ◼   ► the front and back of your head to keep it from sliding downwards.

00:43:55 ◼   ► But they're still shipping the single one, so it's like, it's not even like, the thing

00:44:01 ◼   ► weighs the same no matter what.

00:44:03 ◼   ► Is the single strap one just for people like me with big noses who can support the weight

00:44:06 ◼   ► of this, but you really don't want the weight to be supported on your nose, so I don't understand.

00:44:10 ◼   ► The two straps being shipped here is kind of like, they're just throwing up their hands

00:44:14 ◼   ► and like, it's $3,500 and we can afford it and we couldn't figure it out.

00:44:18 ◼   ► I have to think that the correct strap is probably neither of these, it's something,

00:44:24 ◼   ► it's an evolution of one of them.

00:44:25 ◼   ► And I think having real people buy this thing and use it and complain about it, people with

00:44:30 ◼   ► different hairstyles and different size and shape heads and different tolerance for pinching

00:44:35 ◼   ► in different places and different size skulls, because again, you can get a different face

00:44:40 ◼   ► shield for this, but it doesn't come in different widths.

00:44:43 ◼   ► It doesn't even come in two different sizes like the Apple Watch.

00:44:45 ◼   ► It is the size it is, and they do the best they can to make it conform to your face,

00:44:49 ◼   ► but if you have a really, really wide head or really, really narrow head, there's only

00:44:53 ◼   ► so much you can do instead of with the strap.

00:44:55 ◼   ► So this is definitely sort of an experimental kind of like, let's see what sticks, here's

00:45:01 ◼   ► two straps, good luck.

00:45:03 ◼   ► But it also might just be that the last thing they want is for someone to dislike the product

00:45:09 ◼   ► based on some fairly avoidable comfort issue.

00:45:13 ◼   ► They're really putting themselves out there with this.

00:45:14 ◼   ► They're launching this whole new thing.

00:45:15 ◼   ► It's a massive risk, and you know there's gonna be a whole bunch of people who get it

00:45:19 ◼   ► and try to make YouTube videos about how much it sucks, whatever.

00:45:24 ◼   ► They're trying to cover their bases.

00:45:25 ◼   ► They're trying to make sure, we don't want anyone to go through the process of spending

00:45:30 ◼   ► $3,500 plus on this thing, going to the store, getting themselves fit for the shield, getting

00:45:36 ◼   ► the prescription optical inserts and all this other stuff.

00:45:38 ◼   ► This is quite a process to get this thing made for you and fit for you, only to then

00:45:43 ◼   ► discover, oh, it's kind of uncomfortable.

00:45:45 ◼   ► So that's probably why they're including both straps, like give people all the options.

00:45:49 ◼   ► - I mean, that's gonna happen no matter what though.

00:45:51 ◼   ► That's the thing about this, because they haven't, like how many people have ever worn

00:45:55 ◼   ► this in the entire world?

00:45:56 ◼   ► You could probably put them in a pretty small theater.

00:45:59 ◼   ► Not many people have ever used this, and now you're gonna sell a million of them in a year?

00:46:04 ◼   ► You're gonna very quickly find out, okay, this part of this strap pinches this percentage

00:46:08 ◼   ► of people, and the bands are too wide or too narrow or tilt down too much or not enough.

00:46:14 ◼   ► They could do all the testing they can internally, but you're only gonna find out once this,

00:46:18 ◼   ► and it's inevitable that it's gonna be uncomfortable.

00:46:21 ◼   ► I know from, again, from wearing glasses, glasses frames can be uncomfortable.

00:46:25 ◼   ► That's one of the main things that I use to choose my glasses frames, and also one of

00:46:28 ◼   ► the reasons I'm wearing glasses frames that are older than my children is because I find

00:46:33 ◼   ► a lot of glasses frames uncomfortable.

00:46:35 ◼   ► And yes, I know with glasses frames, you can bend them and put them into little hot beads

00:46:38 ◼   ► and try to get them all lined up and do all these things, but the combination of durability

00:46:42 ◼   ► and comfort and which frames work rest on your face with your nose and your ears and

00:46:48 ◼   ► everything else, it's a very personal thing, and it's extremely difficult to find something

00:46:53 ◼   ► that works, especially things that get strapped to your head.

00:46:55 ◼   ► Even shopping for things like ski goggles, which are kind of similar to this, and they

00:46:59 ◼   ► have the advantage of you probably wearing a hat to cushion the strap going around your

00:47:03 ◼   ► head.

00:47:04 ◼   ► So yeah, I think they're probably doing the best they can, but I look at all these straps

00:47:07 ◼   ► and I'm like, "These cannot be the final form."

00:47:09 ◼   ► I mean, obviously the real solution to this problem is make the headset smaller and lighter,

00:47:14 ◼   ► and I hope they do that, but judging by their love of that stupid aluminum frame and curved

00:47:18 ◼   ► glass front, I'm not sure what kind of progress they're gonna make on that in the next year

00:47:21 ◼   ► or two.

00:47:22 ◼   ► I bet the front screen is the first thing to go in future revisions of this product.

00:47:27 ◼   ► On a cheap model, yeah.

00:47:28 ◼   ► Yeah, I'm sure there's going to be a Vision Air or something like that.

00:47:31 ◼   ► They can just put stickers there with eyeballs on them.

00:47:33 ◼   ► Yeah, and it'll be...

00:47:35 ◼   ► Because aluminum is much lighter than glass, so if the front of it becomes mostly a flat

00:47:40 ◼   ► piece of aluminum with some cameras on it or whatever, that would actually be a significant

00:47:45 ◼   ► weight savings.

00:47:46 ◼   ► They should really make it out of plastic.

00:47:47 ◼   ► I think there's more of an excuse to use the AirPods Max because headphones at least get

00:47:51 ◼   ► banged around and your head could hit something sideways, but honestly, this thing, what is

00:47:54 ◼   ► this going to be banging into?

00:47:55 ◼   ► Hopefully nothing, especially since they always want you to be seated while you're using it.

00:47:58 ◼   ► They never show you up and playing Beat Saber.

00:48:01 ◼   ► But that's during use.

00:48:02 ◼   ► You still got to get it places if it ever leaves your house.

00:48:04 ◼   ► Just put it in that little cover.

00:48:06 ◼   ► That'll totally protect you.

00:48:08 ◼   ► Honestly, Jon, you're right.

00:48:11 ◼   ► Both the AirPods Max and the Vision Pro should probably be made of more plastic than they

00:48:16 ◼   ► are because that would make them both lighter and that would significantly improve comfort.

00:48:19 ◼   ► That's why I keep hoping that Apple will get into carbon fiber or something.

00:48:22 ◼   ► I know it's not feasible.

00:48:23 ◼   ► We're always looking for, "How about something that's lighter and durable but is not metal

00:48:28 ◼   ► and carbon fiber fulfills those things except it's extremely expensive and annoying to manufacture

00:48:33 ◼   ► and has also some other advantages?"

00:48:35 ◼   ► But if you're going to stubbornly refuse to do plastic, is there some other material that

00:48:40 ◼   ► you feel okay about using?

00:48:41 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:48:42 ◼   ► Magnesium?

00:48:43 ◼   ► Titanium.

00:48:44 ◼   ► Yeah, I guess.

00:48:45 ◼   ► Yeah, we'll see.

00:48:46 ◼   ► I think, keep in mind too, one of the major reasons they would want to save weight is

00:48:50 ◼   ► to then immediately spend it by putting the battery inside the headset.

00:48:53 ◼   ► Oh, no.

00:48:54 ◼   ► They don't want to do that.

00:48:55 ◼   ► They don't want to do that but I think they need to do that at some point.

00:48:59 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:49:00 ◼   ► What the other people do is they put the battery behind your head to try to balance the weight

00:49:04 ◼   ► in the front but it's still weight.

00:49:06 ◼   ► It's not great.

00:49:07 ◼   ► Well, even that, the Quest 2 ... Yeah, because now Adam got a Quest 3 for Christmas so now

00:49:13 ◼   ► I have some experience seeing both of them around the house.

00:49:17 ◼   ► All of those headsets have internal batteries to the front of the headset also but they

00:49:21 ◼   ► now offer extended battery head straps that have more battery on the back of the head.

00:49:27 ◼   ► I can see Apple doing something like that down the road maybe but I think step one is

00:49:32 ◼   ► get the price down of this product and then step two is get the battery inside of it.

00:49:36 ◼   ► And so I think any advances they're going to have and any changes they make to eliminate

00:49:40 ◼   ► weight or size should be spent then going towards those goals.

00:49:44 ◼   ► Yeah, maybe.

00:49:45 ◼   ► I'll have to see what this battery is like in real life to see what kind of weight are

00:49:48 ◼   ► we talking about because we know the battery doesn't last very long as it is.

00:49:51 ◼   ► So I think it should sound like a ... We talked about the iPhone MagSafe backpack as a magnetically

00:50:00 ◼   ► attached backpack strap.

00:50:02 ◼   ► Imagine an actual backpack that a human could wear with two straps and had a huge battery

00:50:07 ◼   ► in it and you could be in your Vision Pro for 48 hours.

00:50:09 ◼   ► Oh, someone will definitely sell that I'm sure.

00:50:11 ◼   ► It'd be very healthy.

00:50:12 ◼   ► Talk about a stinky cushion.

00:50:15 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:50:16 ◼   ► Wow.

00:50:17 ◼   ► Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:50:18 ◼   ► All right.

00:50:19 ◼   ► So Apple also noted that the Vision Pro is designed with the environment in mind with

00:50:22 ◼   ► 100% recycled rare earth metals ... Excuse me, rare earth elements in all magnets and

00:50:27 ◼   ► 100% recycled tin, soldering and gold plating in multiple printed circuit boards.

00:50:32 ◼   ► The frame and battery enclosure contain 100% recycled aluminum and the light seal and solo

00:50:36 ◼   ► knit band are each made with over 70% recycled yarn.

00:50:40 ◼   ► The Vision Pro meets Apple's high standards for energy efficiency and is free of mercury,

00:50:44 ◼   ► brominated ... I hope I pronounced that right ... flame retardants, PVC and beryllium.

00:50:49 ◼   ► The packaging is 100% fiber based, bringing Apple closer to its goal of eliminating plastics

00:50:53 ◼   ► in all packaging by 2025.

00:50:56 ◼   ► Kudos to them.

00:50:57 ◼   ► Yeah, pretty cool.

00:50:58 ◼   ► Yeah, they've made pretty good effort here.

00:50:59 ◼   ► Like we talked about the watch as like the one product that was totally carbon neutral

00:51:02 ◼   ► and everything.

00:51:03 ◼   ► And you can tell like there are some parts of it that they still couldn't do.

00:51:08 ◼   ► Not everything is 100% recycled, but they're trying as hard as they can here to use recycled

00:51:13 ◼   ► materials in all the places where they can, which is good.

00:51:15 ◼   ► It's interesting that the solo knit band is 70% recycled, but the double loop band, no

00:51:22 ◼   ► recycled stuff.

00:51:23 ◼   ► Well, I'm sure some of it ... Well, I would assume, I shouldn't say I'm sure.

00:51:26 ◼   ► They would have listed it.

00:51:27 ◼   ► Yeah, but if it was only like 10%, I don't think they would have listed it.

00:51:30 ◼   ► I mean, it kind of makes me think that the original plan was, "Hey, this one strap is

00:51:34 ◼   ► going to work for everybody."

00:51:35 ◼   ► And they eventually learned late in the game, as in two years ago, "I know we thought this

00:51:41 ◼   ► was going to be the strap."

00:51:42 ◼   ► Because if you look at these two straps, look at the one they show in all the PR things,

00:51:45 ◼   ► the single one with the big catcher's mitt, and then look at the double strap.

00:51:48 ◼   ► The double strap is like, "Is that a prototype?"

00:51:51 ◼   ► Or is that the final ... It doesn't have that Apple look.

00:51:55 ◼   ► And it would make sense that they spent all this time making sure they could make what

00:51:58 ◼   ► was going to be the one and only strap.

00:52:00 ◼   ► "Can we manufacture that with 70% recycled yarn?"

00:52:03 ◼   ► And then, like I said, late in the game, as in a year or two ago, they said, "We need

00:52:08 ◼   ► another strap.

00:52:09 ◼   ► This one doesn't work for enough people.

00:52:10 ◼   ► Can we slap some of the other real fast?

00:52:11 ◼   ► Fine, but we can't do the recycled stuff.

00:52:13 ◼   ► Fine, just ship it."

00:52:14 ◼   ► Fun.

00:52:15 ◼   ► All right, so we also got some more Vision Pro info.

00:52:18 ◼   ► The Vision Pro ... This is from Bloomberg.

00:52:19 ◼   ► "Will be equipped with 16 gigs of RAM, the same amount of memory that was included in

00:52:23 ◼   ► the Vision Pro development kits distributed by Apple last year."

00:52:25 ◼   ► Wish I could have gotten one of those.

00:52:28 ◼   ► Germin says that, "YouTubers and members of the media selected for reviews will meet with

00:52:32 ◼   ► Apple on January 16th for a hands-on experience with a follow-up meeting to take place on

00:52:37 ◼   ► the 23rd to go over the device's features a second time.

00:52:40 ◼   ► Reviews are set to be published at the end of January."

00:52:42 ◼   ► I will be the canary in the coal mine and say, "I did not get invited to this."

00:52:48 ◼   ► I also did not get invited to this.

00:52:49 ◼   ► So, Jon, you're going to go?

00:52:51 ◼   ► No, but the interesting thing about this is that ... And they've done this with Vision

00:52:55 ◼   ► Pro already.

00:52:56 ◼   ► So, Gruber, for example, saw it when it was launched, and then they also called him back

00:53:01 ◼   ► to have him look at his photos and the spatial video thing and stuff.

00:53:05 ◼   ► A bunch of people have done that, right?

00:53:07 ◼   ► The whole idea of, "We're going to have media see this before everyone else," fine, that's

00:53:12 ◼   ► normal.

00:53:13 ◼   ► But having them come back twice, I think, is especially for this product, because they're

00:53:16 ◼   ► going to meet with them on the 16th and give them a hands-on experience, and I'm assuming

00:53:21 ◼   ► they're going to send them home with devices, and then they'll come back on the 23rd.

00:53:27 ◼   ► And I think coming back on the 23rd is where they're going to hear from the people who

00:53:30 ◼   ► said, "I tried to use this, but it's hurting my head here, and this is fogging up, and

00:53:34 ◼   ► blah, blah, blah, and I think I got the wrong prescription," because that's the second for

00:53:37 ◼   ► Apple to get good reviews, essentially.

00:53:39 ◼   ► That's a chance for them to address the concerns that are only going to come up when the people

00:53:43 ◼   ► take these things home and try to actually use them for extended periods of time for

00:53:46 ◼   ► real work.

00:53:47 ◼   ► And I feel like that January 23rd thing is essentially the final fitting.

00:53:52 ◼   ► "Okay, how did this work for you?

00:53:54 ◼   ► Did we give you the right face shield thing, or do you need a different one?

00:53:58 ◼   ► Did that strap work for you?

00:53:59 ◼   ► Which strap did you like better?

00:54:01 ◼   ► Tell us more about why," all of that.

00:54:04 ◼   ► That is really doing everything they can so that 50% of the first-waiver reviews isn't

00:54:10 ◼   ► just, "Eh, it was a little uncomfortable because I don't think it fit me right, but oh well,

00:54:13 ◼   ► the 23rd is a chance for Apple to fix that and say, 'Okay, you did pick the wrong face

00:54:17 ◼   ► shield.

00:54:18 ◼   ► Try this one.

00:54:19 ◼   ► Try the bigger one.

00:54:20 ◼   ► Try the smaller one.'"

00:54:21 ◼   ► I'm guessing the 16th is a preview because pre-orders open a few days after that, and

00:54:25 ◼   ► they want people to talk about them so that people will pre-order it, and then I'm guessing

00:54:29 ◼   ► no one gets review hardware until the 23rd.

00:54:31 ◼   ► Maybe.

00:54:32 ◼   ► I mean, if what I said is not what they're doing, it's what they should be doing.

00:54:35 ◼   ► Well, they should be inviting us.

00:54:37 ◼   ► Right.

00:54:38 ◼   ► Well, no, but honestly, I think having a second round where you hear people's complaints is

00:54:44 ◼   ► so much more important.

00:54:45 ◼   ► If they have complaints about software or bugs, you can't fix that, right?

00:54:49 ◼   ► But if it's about complaints about fit, it's like, "You can fix that.

00:54:52 ◼   ► We have different face shields.

00:54:53 ◼   ► I can give you suggestions on the strap.

00:54:56 ◼   ► Tell me what problems you were having.

00:54:57 ◼   ► Maybe we had them too.

00:54:58 ◼   ► We can help you with them."

00:54:59 ◼   ► It's not like when people get an early thing and there's a bunch of bugs in it, what are

00:55:04 ◼   ► the marketing people going to do?

00:55:05 ◼   ► They're like, "Oh, we can't fix that software before this launches, so just oh well."

00:55:09 ◼   ► All right.

00:55:10 ◼   ► And then Apple released an ad for the Vision Pro, which they call Get Ready.

00:55:17 ◼   ► And the general gist, it's only 30 seconds.

00:55:20 ◼   ► And if I were to paint you a word picture, it's basically a bunch of movie characters

00:55:24 ◼   ► either putting on helmets or face masks or things over their eyes.

00:55:29 ◼   ► And I had forgotten about this, but a lot of people pointed out that this is very much

00:55:33 ◼   ► in the vein of the Hello iPhone ad, which was a bunch of people answering the phone

00:55:37 ◼   ► from movies and saying hello, how can I help you, what's up, etc., etc.

00:55:42 ◼   ► And very, very spiritually similar between the two.

00:55:45 ◼   ► I thought it was a good ad.

00:55:47 ◼   ► It's not making me run up and get ready to order a Vision Pro immediately, but it was

00:55:51 ◼   ► a good ad.

00:55:52 ◼   ► The thing I like about the original iPhone ad is the only people who remember that ad

00:55:59 ◼   ► were people who were paying attention to the iPhone when it was launched, because that

00:56:03 ◼   ► was the launch ad for the original iPhone.

00:56:06 ◼   ► And that means it was just a bunch of Apple nerds, because everyone else was like, oh,

00:56:09 ◼   ► Apple came out with the phone, whatever, but people weren't that interested in the iPhone

00:56:13 ◼   ► anymore than they were interested in the Mac or anything else at that stage.

00:56:16 ◼   ► I guess the iPod was out there.

00:56:18 ◼   ► Disagree.

00:56:20 ◼   ► That's not how I remember it at all.

00:56:21 ◼   ► No, I know there was lots of hype around the iPhone, but look at how well it sold in the

00:56:26 ◼   ► first year, and it's not because they couldn't make enough of them.

00:56:29 ◼   ► People were not that jazzed to get an iPhone.

00:56:31 ◼   ► It's like, that's an Apple thing, I like my iPod, but I also like my current cell phone

00:56:35 ◼   ► and it'll be fine or whatever.

00:56:36 ◼   ► I strongly disagree.

00:56:37 ◼   ► I don't remember it that way either.

00:56:38 ◼   ► Yeah, I don't remember it that way.

00:56:39 ◼   ► Well, Casey didn't even remember the ad, and he is an Apple nerd.

00:56:42 ◼   ► I think if you ask the average person on the street, do you remember the original iPhone

00:56:45 ◼   ► ad, and then ask the same question of do you remember the original Mac ad, you're going

00:56:50 ◼   ► to get very different answers.

00:56:51 ◼   ► That's not a fair comparison at all.

00:56:53 ◼   ► Why not?

00:56:54 ◼   ► Because, first of all, the Mac ad was during the Super Bowl, and I don't recall when the

00:56:59 ◼   ► Hello Ad was.

00:57:00 ◼   ► I think the Hello Ad did get a lot of airplay, but I think people are like, yeah, that's

00:57:04 ◼   ► that Apple phone thing anyway.

00:57:05 ◼   ► No, I remember the time span from January to June.

00:57:09 ◼   ► So January was the announcement, and then it was available in June.

00:57:12 ◼   ► That time span, everyone was buzzing about the iPhone for six months.

00:57:17 ◼   ► Everyone in our world, yes.

00:57:18 ◼   ► No, I disagree.

00:57:19 ◼   ► It was mainstream.

00:57:20 ◼   ► It was everywhere.

00:57:22 ◼   ► Everyone was buzzing about it for six months straight.

00:57:24 ◼   ► But they didn't buy it when it came out because it was too expensive and who wants an Apple

00:57:27 ◼   ► phone?

00:57:28 ◼   ► No, no, a lot of it was waiting until your contract was up on your current phone or whatever,

00:57:32 ◼   ► because again, that was a very contract-based buying period.

00:57:35 ◼   ► Everybody had one or two year contracts on their phones.

00:57:38 ◼   ► And also, AT&T sucked at the time.

00:57:41 ◼   ► In America anyway, you had to have it on AT&T.

00:57:44 ◼   ► I remember that was not going to happen for years.

00:57:49 ◼   ► For my own purposes, I didn't want to do that.

00:57:52 ◼   ► And then eventually I decided I'd lusted after and wanted the iPhone so badly that I'd be

00:57:56 ◼   ► willing to try AT&T.

00:57:57 ◼   ► And then I had to sell Aaron on it because we were on a joint plan.

00:58:00 ◼   ► Why'd you have to sell Aaron on it?

00:58:03 ◼   ► Everybody loves the iPhone.

00:58:04 ◼   ► The level of hype it had and buzz around mainstream audiences was way bigger than what the Vision

00:58:09 ◼   ► Pro has now.

00:58:10 ◼   ► Oh, I agree.

00:58:11 ◼   ► I think they're both similar.

00:58:13 ◼   ► I think you're misremembering the iPhone because the iPhone is now the iPhone.

00:58:16 ◼   ► But back then it was like Apple's trying to do a phone and people aren't sure how well

00:58:19 ◼   ► it's going to do.

00:58:20 ◼   ► But anyway, it's coming out.

00:58:21 ◼   ► Nerds are excited about it and it's interesting, but it's also just kind of a curiosity and

00:58:25 ◼   ► off in the corner because the real cell phone market is Nokia or whatever.

00:58:28 ◼   ► It took so long to turn people.

00:58:30 ◼   ► Just look at the sales figures.

00:58:31 ◼   ► Look at the sales chart for the iPhone.

00:58:32 ◼   ► No, but you're misconstruing two different things.

00:58:35 ◼   ► The iPhone was crippled when it was new, which at first sounds like I'm agreeing with you.

00:58:40 ◼   ► But so is the Vision Pro.

00:58:41 ◼   ► It's $3,500.

00:58:42 ◼   ► You can't do tons of things you can't do with it.

00:58:44 ◼   ► It's like it'll run iPad apps.

00:58:46 ◼   ► No, a lot of people are saying with the Vision Pro, I don't even see why I would want that.

00:58:49 ◼   ► Whereas the original iPhone, it was like, okay, next time I get a new renewal on my

00:58:54 ◼   ► contract slash when it comes to my carrier, I'm jumping on that.

00:58:58 ◼   ► Bingo.

00:58:59 ◼   ► Bingo.

00:59:00 ◼   ► I think you had to look at the sales number and see that that's not the way it played

00:59:04 ◼   ► out.

00:59:05 ◼   ► I think you're, you're a misremembering history and thinking the iPhone was always a hit that

00:59:07 ◼   ► everybody wanted and it wasn't.

00:59:09 ◼   ► It took a while to convince people.

00:59:10 ◼   ► It was mostly a curiosity to add lots of hype.

00:59:12 ◼   ► And I think that's exactly like the Vision Pro.

00:59:14 ◼   ► It's a curiosity that has lots of hype.

00:59:16 ◼   ► Will the Vision Pro prove itself like the iPhone?

00:59:18 ◼   ► We'll see.

00:59:19 ◼   ► I think we are all perhaps misremembering because I could not disagree more with your

00:59:23 ◼   ► characterization of what it was like in 2007.

00:59:25 ◼   ► And especially, even if I were to take your incorrect memory as fact, I would say that

00:59:33 ◼   ► the moment anyone put their hands on a smartphone, immediately it clicked.

00:59:37 ◼   ► Because I remember...

00:59:38 ◼   ► But they hadn't when the ad aired.

00:59:39 ◼   ► That's my whole point.

00:59:40 ◼   ► It was skepticism.

00:59:41 ◼   ► Skepticism about the iPhone.

00:59:43 ◼   ► Well, but again, I mean, yes, I think there was a degree of skepticism, probably more

00:59:47 ◼   ► than I'm giving it credit for, but certainly a lot less than I think you are remembering.

00:59:52 ◼   ► I don't think people were near as skeptical as you seem to believe they were.

00:59:56 ◼   ► But even on top of that, I think I agree with Marco that it was more about, "Wow, that sounds

01:00:01 ◼   ► cool, but A, I've got another year and a half left on this phone.

01:00:04 ◼   ► B, it is very expensive.

01:00:06 ◼   ► And C, there's no friggin' way I'm getting on Singular or AT&T or what have you because

01:00:11 ◼   ► they suck."

01:00:12 ◼   ► And I mean, I cannot overstate at the time.

01:00:15 ◼   ► Now it's very different.

01:00:16 ◼   ► In fact, I would say even a few years into the iPhone, it was very different.

01:00:19 ◼   ► But at the time, Singular was, and AT&T both, were terrible.

01:00:24 ◼   ► God, were they terrible.

01:00:25 ◼   ► That's the reason people weren't as interested.

01:00:27 ◼   ► Once they heard it was AT&T only or Singular only or whatever, it's just like, "Oh, it's

01:00:32 ◼   ► a curiosity," whatever.

01:00:33 ◼   ► Everyone in the Apple world was insanely hyped about it.

01:00:36 ◼   ► Anyone who had touched it loved it.

01:00:38 ◼   ► Tech nerds were totally into it.

01:00:39 ◼   ► But look at the sales.

01:00:41 ◼   ► Look, two years later, people's contracts drop.

01:00:43 ◼   ► It's 2009.

01:00:44 ◼   ► Wow, look at those sales.

01:00:45 ◼   ► They're better than they were in 2007, but they're nothing like what they would become.

01:00:48 ◼   ► No one's arguing that it sold massively the first year.

01:00:52 ◼   ► We're not saying that.

01:00:53 ◼   ► What we're saying is that there is huge buzz.

01:00:55 ◼   ► Well, that's what I'm saying.

01:00:57 ◼   ► And it's not because people were like, "Oh, I want to get one the second I can."

01:01:00 ◼   ► They could, and they didn't.

01:01:01 ◼   ► They chose not to buy it.

01:01:02 ◼   ► Right, because of other circumstances.

01:01:03 ◼   ► I don't think it was because they were unconvinced.

01:01:04 ◼   ► It was because of other circumstances around it.

01:01:07 ◼   ► Yeah, I don't think it's like, "Oh, I wish I had one, but they're not on my network."

01:01:10 ◼   ► I know that's exactly what it was for me.

01:01:12 ◼   ► That was a huge part of it.

01:01:13 ◼   ► What are you talking about, John?

01:01:14 ◼   ► That was a massive part of it.

01:01:16 ◼   ► That's why you could see the sales spike every time they would add a new major carrier.

01:01:20 ◼   ► The sales spike for this thing was the iPhone 6 when they finally made a big phone.

01:01:24 ◼   ► Oh my God.

01:01:25 ◼   ► No.

01:01:26 ◼   ► Anyway, the point is when that ad aired, people were not like, "Oh, I can't wait to get an

01:01:29 ◼   ► iPhone."

01:01:30 ◼   ► Nerds were like that, but even among nerds, not everyone got one because they were expensive

01:01:34 ◼   ► and it was AT&T only.

01:01:35 ◼   ► So the ad aired and people were not like, "Oh my God, it's that phone.

01:01:38 ◼   ► Everyone's going to get it."

01:01:39 ◼   ► Because everyone didn't get it.

01:01:40 ◼   ► Look at the first year sales numbers.

01:01:41 ◼   ► Look at the second year sales numbers.

01:01:42 ◼   ► When the ad came, people were not dying to get it and unlike the original Mac ad, they

01:01:47 ◼   ► weren't intrigued by a mysterious thing they didn't know anything about because they'd

01:01:50 ◼   ► already seen the introduction.

01:01:51 ◼   ► I still think you're 100% wrong, but the Vision Pro does not have anywhere near the level

01:01:57 ◼   ► of mainstream interest and hype as the iPhone did.

01:02:00 ◼   ► Concur.

01:02:01 ◼   ► I think it's going to be a much slower launch and given manufacturing and supply realities,

01:02:06 ◼   ► that's probably fine.

01:02:08 ◼   ► I saw a few people on Maston over the last couple of days refer to it almost like launching

01:02:13 ◼   ► a dev kit as a product.

01:02:15 ◼   ► That's actually a pretty good analogy because what we're going to see over the next year

01:02:20 ◼   ► with the Vision Pro is basically very low sales numbers.

01:02:24 ◼   ► It's a budding market.

01:02:26 ◼   ► The initial buyers are going to be largely early gadget adopters at the high end of the

01:02:30 ◼   ► market and then developers and people who are getting it for some kind of testing or

01:02:35 ◼   ► development role.

01:02:36 ◼   ► We're going to see the app and content market probably very slowly grow over time.

01:02:42 ◼   ► It really is kind of like a tech preview that they're selling.

01:02:45 ◼   ► It's so early still and the mainstream consumers I think are going to have relatively little

01:02:51 ◼   ► interest in jumping on this yet.

01:02:54 ◼   ► The price obviously is a massive thing holding it back.

01:02:58 ◼   ► All the different physical limitations and awkwardness of it I think are going to keep

01:03:02 ◼   ► it small for a while.

01:03:05 ◼   ► It doesn't need more than that right now just because they can't make more of them anyway.

01:03:11 ◼   ► It's going to be a huge hit.

01:03:12 ◼   ► It's going to sell out.

01:03:13 ◼   ► It's going to be back ordered.

01:03:14 ◼   ► I'm going to try to order one on day one.

01:03:15 ◼   ► I think it's going to be very difficult to actually get early delivery on it.

01:03:19 ◼   ► I'm sure it's going to be one of those things where you refresh the Apple Store app over

01:03:23 ◼   ► and over again until the time comes around and then all of a sudden it's like, "Oh, 12

01:03:27 ◼   ► weeks out, 18 weeks out, 24 weeks out."

01:03:28 ◼   ► It's going to be that kind of thing.

01:03:30 ◼   ► There is no comparison to the level of consumer excitement for the Vision Pro compared to

01:03:36 ◼   ► the iPhone.

01:03:37 ◼   ► I think it's pretty good comparison.

01:03:38 ◼   ► But anyway, my point with this ad thing-

01:03:39 ◼   ► Oh, my word, Jon.

01:03:40 ◼   ► Can everyone tell him how wrong he is, please?

01:03:43 ◼   ► Please write him right now and tell him how wrong he is.

01:03:45 ◼   ► Don't ask for people to write in because you're not going to like what they say.

01:03:48 ◼   ► Anyway-

01:03:49 ◼   ► Oh, oh, that's fire.

01:03:50 ◼   ► Wow.

01:03:51 ◼   ► People remember because people remember.

01:03:52 ◼   ► So do we.

01:03:53 ◼   ► People who are not in the Apple tech nerd sphere remember Apple people being excited about

01:03:57 ◼   ► the phone but them going, "Yeah, whatever.

01:03:58 ◼   ► I'll check it out later."

01:03:59 ◼   ► Anyway, my point is when people see this ad, A, they're not going to remember the Hello

01:04:04 ◼   ► ad just like you didn't, Casey, and you were kind of into Apple stuff at that point.

01:04:08 ◼   ► They're not going to remember the ad that's echoing.

01:04:11 ◼   ► I did.

01:04:12 ◼   ► It seemed ridiculous to me that anyone who was in the Apple world would not remember

01:04:15 ◼   ► it but experience has shown that talking to people that lots of people didn't remember

01:04:18 ◼   ► it.

01:04:19 ◼   ► So they're not going to remember the Hello ad.

01:04:20 ◼   ► When someone sees this ad on TV, they're going to be like, "What is this?"

01:04:23 ◼   ► They're going to say to themselves, "Oh, yeah, it's that Apple headset thing I heard about,"

01:04:26 ◼   ► and then they're going to forget about it.

01:04:28 ◼   ► Then in 15 years, when we say, "Hey, do you remember the launch ad for Apple Vision Pro?"

01:04:33 ◼   ► They're going to be like, "No."

01:04:34 ◼   ► "Oh, it was just like the launch ad for the iPhone."

01:04:36 ◼   ► You're like, "The launch ad for the iPhone?

01:04:38 ◼   ► The what?"

01:04:39 ◼   ► Nobody's going to remember these things because it's not a proven product yet.

01:04:43 ◼   ► That's the whole point.

01:04:45 ◼   ► People don't have it.

01:04:46 ◼   ► People haven't used it.

01:04:47 ◼   ► It's not a proven product.

01:04:48 ◼   ► So when you put out an ad like this, it's memorable to people like us because we're

01:04:51 ◼   ► super hyped about it because we're super big Apple followers.

01:04:54 ◼   ► But unless it is a big artistic statement or a tease that everyone was curious about,

01:04:59 ◼   ► like the 1984 ad, it's not going to stick in popular culture's mind.

01:05:03 ◼   ► So that's why I think this ad is a good match with the iPhone ad to basically be a copy

01:05:09 ◼   ► of the same ad, but saying, "Instead of people and movies picking up phones, it will be people

01:05:12 ◼   ► and movies putting things over their eyeballs."

01:05:14 ◼   ► All I'm saying is kudos to Apple because I think you appropriately calibrated this ad

01:05:20 ◼   ► to be a match for the iPhone.

01:05:21 ◼   ► Of course, Apple's hope is, "Just like the iPhone, this is going to be a huge hit."

01:05:25 ◼   ► And we'll see about that.

01:05:27 ◼   ► But the parallels are obvious to me, both in the ads and in my expected reception of

01:05:33 ◼   ► the device.

01:05:34 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:05:35 ◼   ► We'll see.

01:05:36 ◼   ► I don't know anyone personally that is amused by the Vision Pro that isn't a tech nerd,

01:05:45 ◼   ► like a true up and down tech nerd.

01:05:48 ◼   ► And I think a lot of people are casually interested, and I think amongst my peer group, for example,

01:05:53 ◼   ► I think the assumption is I will probably get one amongst these people.

01:05:56 ◼   ► And I'd actually like to talk to you two about that in a minute.

01:05:58 ◼   ► But the assumption is I'll get one, and I think every single one of them will, figuratively

01:06:02 ◼   ► speaking, line up to try it.

01:06:05 ◼   ► But I don't think that any of them are even for a fleeting moment considering buying one.

01:06:11 ◼   ► I think they are at most like, "Oh, I wonder what that's like to use."

01:06:15 ◼   ► It's way more expensive than the iPhone was, obviously.

01:06:18 ◼   ► And talking about the dev kit aspect of it, all VR headsets, all things that you strap

01:06:23 ◼   ► to your head that put screens in front of your eyeballs, they all look like and essentially

01:06:28 ◼   ► behave like, not dev kits, but like things that are tech nerdy in a way that is beyond

01:06:36 ◼   ► normal, what a normal person expects to endure.

01:06:39 ◼   ► Right?

01:06:40 ◼   ► I mean, it was used in jokes for movies for ages.

01:06:43 ◼   ► Oh, you put these big headset on with screens in front of your eyeballs.

01:06:46 ◼   ► And yes, if people do VR gaming videos and that is kind of nerdy.

01:06:51 ◼   ► Anything this big, a big ski goggly screen thing that goes in your eyeballs has not penetrated

01:06:56 ◼   ► to the point where like AirPods, they started off weird and then very quickly, "Oh, everyone

01:07:00 ◼   ► just wears AirPods.

01:07:01 ◼   ► It's fine."

01:07:02 ◼   ► Again, Apple hopes that's what will happen with this, but at $3,500 it's not going to

01:07:06 ◼   ► happen, right?

01:07:07 ◼   ► But right now, this entire product category is a weird thing that tech people do.

01:07:13 ◼   ► It has not graduated to a thing that everybody does or a thing that normal people do.

01:07:19 ◼   ► And I'm not sure this is the product that's going to put it over that line, but certainly

01:07:22 ◼   ► at the point now when it hasn't even launched, everyone is just looking askance at this entire

01:07:26 ◼   ► product category of like, "Remind me again why I'd want to strap that to my face?"

01:07:31 ◼   ► Because they haven't tried it.

01:07:32 ◼   ► So Apple hasn't had a chance to prove to them why they'd want to.

01:07:36 ◼   ► And then the people who do use them are like, "Okay, well, can I play my favorite VR game

01:07:40 ◼   ► on it?"

01:07:41 ◼   ► "No."

01:07:42 ◼   ► "Okay, meta whatever."

01:07:43 ◼   ► No.

01:07:44 ◼   ► I'm very surprised that they didn't do some sort of keynote to just remind us why we should

01:07:49 ◼   ► be excited about this.

01:07:51 ◼   ► And this ad, the Get Ready ad, I don't debate that it's a good ad, but it did not make me

01:07:56 ◼   ► think, "Yes, I can't wait to do blank in my Vision Pro."

01:08:01 ◼   ► Yeah, because it's for people who are already anticipating it.

01:08:03 ◼   ► Well, I wonder if they're kind of holding back a little bit on how hard they pushed

01:08:08 ◼   ► this to consumers yet because they know it's kind of a tough sell to most consumers right

01:08:13 ◼   ► now.

01:08:14 ◼   ► Yeah, and it gives them, like I said, it gives them breathing room to work out the issues.

01:08:19 ◼   ► Maybe they still got the straps wrong.

01:08:21 ◼   ► Maybe there's an issue with, again, condensation or breathability or something.

01:08:25 ◼   ► Whatever the first year, like stories about the design screw-ups they did or whatever,

01:08:29 ◼   ► don't overhype it at this point.

01:08:32 ◼   ► Under promise, over deliver, have this be a year where you work out the kinks, figure

01:08:36 ◼   ► out what works and what doesn't, figure out what people want to use it for, see what this

01:08:41 ◼   ► deal is with the app ecosystem.

01:08:43 ◼   ► Apple has the breathing room to just spend this year doing that, which is why an ad that

01:08:48 ◼   ► is aimed at people who already are anticipating this is good.

01:08:51 ◼   ► It'll get those people excited.

01:08:52 ◼   ► It'll let them, it'll have an echo of the other ad, but it's not overhyping it to people

01:08:57 ◼   ► who don't even know what it is.

01:08:58 ◼   ► I think they will show this during big football games, however, most people will not pay any

01:09:02 ◼   ► attention to it.

01:09:03 ◼   ► Or if they know anything, I'll be like, "Oh yeah, I heard about that.

01:09:05 ◼   ► It's a thing.

01:09:06 ◼   ► I'm not sure."

01:09:07 ◼   ► But it's not like, "Apple Vision Pro will change the way you live your life."

01:09:10 ◼   ► It's not saying that in that language to regular people.

01:09:13 ◼   ► It's not making that promise at all.

01:09:14 ◼   ► It doesn't even show the product, right?

01:09:15 ◼   ► Or maybe at the very end it does, I guess.

01:09:18 ◼   ► It's definitely kind of an ad for the people who are already sold.

01:09:23 ◼   ► I think too, the initial batch of reviews is probably going to be all over the place.

01:09:28 ◼   ► They're not going to all be universally positive, because we know, like gadget reviewers, tech

01:09:32 ◼   ► reviewers, tech people on YouTube, we know price is super important to those markets.

01:09:39 ◼   ► And anytime somebody releases something that's very expensive in a market, that's the headlining

01:09:44 ◼   ► theme of all the reviews.

01:09:46 ◼   ► "Well, it's nice, but it's really expensive."

01:09:49 ◼   ► And so we're going to keep hearing that.

01:09:51 ◼   ► That's going to be most of the reviews early on.

01:09:53 ◼   ► "Okay, I tried it.

01:09:55 ◼   ► It's cool, but it's really expensive."

01:09:58 ◼   ► That's accurate.

01:09:59 ◼   ► It is.

01:10:00 ◼   ► So again, that's why I think they're going to actually try to low-play it, because they

01:10:06 ◼   ► don't want every consumer in the world to get the impression this is just some expensive

01:10:11 ◼   ► thing they don't need.

01:10:13 ◼   ► So again, I think they're going to play it a little more slowly, give it time to develop

01:10:18 ◼   ► its ecosystem, which is not going to happen in the next three weeks.

01:10:22 ◼   ► Just give it time to develop its ecosystem over a year, maybe more.

01:10:26 ◼   ► Give it time for them to maybe get a version two out there that can maybe get a little

01:10:28 ◼   ► bit lower in price, and then we'll start seeing them pushing it harder and harder over time.

01:10:33 ◼   ► But I think it's going to be a slow ramp up to that level of promotion.

01:10:38 ◼   ► And I know we're getting off on a tangent here.

01:10:39 ◼   ► I know we've talked about this in the past, but as we approach launch day and as I see

01:10:45 ◼   ► developers who are submitting their apps or thinking of submitting their apps, I'm getting

01:10:50 ◼   ► more and more of a terrible feeling about what the state of the app ecosystem is going

01:10:54 ◼   ► to be.

01:10:55 ◼   ► "Oh, it's going to be bad."

01:10:58 ◼   ► And I was thinking about this the other day.

01:10:59 ◼   ► I had mistakenly thought for a moment in my mind, "Oh, people can just use their Macs

01:11:04 ◼   ► too, because it's got that screen, the thing where you can see your Mac screen inside the

01:11:07 ◼   ► thing."

01:11:08 ◼   ► But the thing I had in my mind was like, this product would almost be better sold as a display

01:11:16 ◼   ► for a Mac or as a, or like you'd have a Mac built into it, like a little, like the motherboard

01:11:20 ◼   ► of a MacBook Pro, like a little container with the battery or whatever.

01:11:26 ◼   ► Like the Mac apps, like the Mac apps that need a really big screen that have multiple

01:11:30 ◼   ► windows and stuff like that.

01:11:33 ◼   ► That is actually the best use case for this with no software until and unless an app ecosystem

01:11:39 ◼   ► can build up around it.

01:11:40 ◼   ► And I know that instead they're saying, "Well, it's iPad apps.

01:11:42 ◼   ► You can run your iPad apps on it if they allow you to do it, blah, blah, blah."

01:11:45 ◼   ► But iPad apps seem to me, I don't know, like I've never had a dream of this iPad app would

01:11:51 ◼   ► be better if I could have it on a bigger screen or if I could have multiple copies of, because

01:11:57 ◼   ► they're just so focused on a single screen and yeah, you've got slide over and split

01:12:00 ◼   ► view and stuff like that.

01:12:01 ◼   ► But Mac apps are the ones that you want to have a million different windows and big things

01:12:04 ◼   ► out in front of you and everything like that.

01:12:06 ◼   ► But this is not a Mac and it's trying to be its own platform.

01:12:10 ◼   ► And in the meantime, it's like, well, I can run some iPad apps if you want.

01:12:13 ◼   ► And just that first year, like, especially with Apple's general inability to foster a

01:12:18 ◼   ► healthy app ecosystem on anything except for a device they sell billions of copies of,

01:12:23 ◼   ► makes me worry a lot about not so much the hardware and does it fit on people's faces

01:12:28 ◼   ► and everything like that, because that is going to be a problem, but that can be worked

01:12:30 ◼   ► out.

01:12:31 ◼   ► But like once all that's worked out, what do I see inside this thing?

01:12:34 ◼   ► What software do I want to use inside it?

01:12:36 ◼   ► And I keep thinking Mac software, Mac software would work well in there.

01:12:40 ◼   ► It's the next version of this could be the best screen you've ever had for your Mac,

01:12:45 ◼   ► really complicated, lots of windows using a mouse and keyboard in front of you that

01:12:49 ◼   ► you can see because you can see your keyboard through the transparency mode thing, or you

01:12:53 ◼   ► can touch type or whatever.

01:12:54 ◼   ► Like, I don't know, maybe I'm entirely wrong considering I've never used one of these things,

01:12:57 ◼   ► but I'm really worried about what's going to be inside that headset.

01:13:01 ◼   ► And you know, and if it's a $3,500 really good movie viewer, then it's kind of like

01:13:05 ◼   ► me buying the OLED iPad to watch TV on it.

01:13:08 ◼   ► I mean, it's a use case, but I'm not sure it's going to be that common.

01:13:12 ◼   ► I would suggest don't preset expectations in your mind too much beforehand about how

01:13:20 ◼   ► you might use this device before you've actually used one.

01:13:23 ◼   ► I think it will surprise you in a few ways.

01:13:26 ◼   ► I mean, I would love to watch TV shows on it, but $3,500 is a lot.

01:13:30 ◼   ► Yeah, but you know, I frankly, I don't see that Mac use case being that big of a use case.

01:13:37 ◼   ► I mean, I don't mean the one that they're shipping, which is like screen sharing with

01:13:40 ◼   ► the Mac.

01:13:41 ◼   ► I mean, I don't see apps running on the headset.

01:13:43 ◼   ► No, yeah, I know.

01:13:44 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:13:45 ◼   ► And presumably, you know, I can imagine a future version of that feature where Mac windows

01:13:50 ◼   ► actually get broken out and can free float in the space.

01:13:53 ◼   ► Like maybe I'm just describing, I don't mean like Mac windows with like the stoplight buttons

01:13:58 ◼   ► and all that stuff floating in front of you.

01:13:59 ◼   ► I mean, like what somebody said, Mac style apps, you know what I mean?

01:14:03 ◼   ► Like the correct donor, the correct donor platform for apps on the vision pro is not

01:14:09 ◼   ► the iPad, but it's instead the Mac.

01:14:11 ◼   ► So that it just because the limitations of iPad applications, like the fact that they

01:14:15 ◼   ► don't even have the concept of windows vision pro has windows.

01:14:18 ◼   ► I know they're not quite windows, but like it has individual floating things.

01:14:21 ◼   ► That's its whole deal.

01:14:22 ◼   ► It's got the ornaments and separate accessory windows and you don't have to lay things on

01:14:25 ◼   ► top of each other.

01:14:26 ◼   ► You can just put it next to it cause you can turn your head a little bit and there's more

01:14:28 ◼   ► crap over there.

01:14:30 ◼   ► That's a Mac paradigm.

01:14:31 ◼   ► Well, iPad doesn't work like that.

01:14:32 ◼   ► So I'm thinking like native vision pro apps that are essentially vision, proified versions

01:14:37 ◼   ► of the Mac apps, not vision, proified versions of the iPad apps.

01:14:41 ◼   ► But again, I haven't used either one of these things, so I'm just speculating.

01:14:44 ◼   ► I think you'll be surprised like when, when this comes out, when you do at some point

01:14:48 ◼   ► somehow use one, I think you'll be surprised.

01:14:51 ◼   ► And so again, like just, I strongly urge people like don't make too many assumptions about

01:14:57 ◼   ► how you might use this until you have a chance to actually use one.

01:15:01 ◼   ► And if that means that you can't justify paying $3,500 for it upfront without knowing quite

01:15:06 ◼   ► how you'll use it, that's understandable.

01:15:08 ◼   ► You probably shouldn't jump on the preorder then.

01:15:11 ◼   ► Leave more room for me please.

01:15:13 ◼   ► But you know, it's a very different device and paradigm than most people have ever used

01:15:19 ◼   ► before.

01:15:20 ◼   ► So, you know, like, like when the Apple watch came out or especially before anybody had

01:15:24 ◼   ► actually used it, you know, when it was announced, everyone was, was kind of assuming they would

01:15:28 ◼   ► use the Apple watch much like a tiny iPhone.

01:15:31 ◼   ► And then we got the Apple watch and we, and anybody who tried that was very quickly, just

01:15:36 ◼   ► out of that notion because it was a terrible tiny iPhone, but it was really great for other

01:15:40 ◼   ► things.

01:15:41 ◼   ► People thought the iPad was basically a giant iPhone and they would use it just like a giant

01:15:45 ◼   ► iPhone.

01:15:46 ◼   ► Well, I mean, you kind of can, but it's better if you use it like an iPad, it's kind of its

01:15:49 ◼   ► own thing.

01:15:50 ◼   ► You know, even like the Apple TV, when the Apple TV, the one with apps, you know, the

01:15:55 ◼   ► whatever generation that was with that added the apps, when that was first announced and

01:15:58 ◼   ► shown off, everyone's like, "Hmm, maybe I'll do some computing on my TV."

01:16:01 ◼   ► And that didn't really pan out that way.

01:16:04 ◼   ► Instead we do other things with it.

01:16:06 ◼   ► This is going to be the same kind of thing.

01:16:08 ◼   ► We are trying to project onto it the paradigms we already know from devices we already have

01:16:14 ◼   ► and have used and saying, "Okay, well, I'm going to use this like a giant Mac."

01:16:18 ◼   ► It's like, "Well, you might, but probably not.

01:16:21 ◼   ► There's probably going to be other ways you use it that are, that are like it.

01:16:24 ◼   ► They're, you know, you're going to use it like you're going to use a vision pro.

01:16:27 ◼   ► You're not going to use it like any of the, any of the platforms because it's very different

01:16:31 ◼   ► from all the other platforms in so many different ways."

01:16:33 ◼   ► So don't go into it saying like, "Okay, well, I can justify this because it'll be like a

01:16:38 ◼   ► really big monitor."

01:16:39 ◼   ► And it's like, "Yeah, well, I mean, maybe you might do that, but go in with a more open

01:16:43 ◼   ► mind."

01:16:44 ◼   ► It might go a different direction for you.

01:16:46 ◼   ► And until everyone has these and you can try them and you can see that you can see all

01:16:50 ◼   ► the video reviews, you can see what kind of apps come out for it and everything.

01:16:53 ◼   ► Don't make too many assumptions early on.

01:16:55 ◼   ► I mean, that's, that's the whole thing.

01:16:57 ◼   ► Apple needs to provide, get enough people to write applications that are for this.

01:17:02 ◼   ► But I'm saying in the meantime, in the meantime, Apple's stopgap is in the meantime, people

01:17:06 ◼   ► can use iPad apps.

01:17:07 ◼   ► Like they're in their own, in their announcement, which I think maybe we'll get to if we keep

01:17:10 ◼   ► going here.

01:17:11 ◼   ► So like, "Oh, it has a million apps."

01:17:12 ◼   ► What they mean is a million people have said, "Yes, you can run my iPad apps on your thing."

01:17:17 ◼   ► I'm assuming like, because how do they know how many apps?

01:17:19 ◼   ► So they just, they just opened up submissions the same day they put out their press release.

01:17:22 ◼   ► We haven't even opened submissions for the, for the vision pro app store yet, but we know

01:17:25 ◼   ► there'll be a million apps.

01:17:26 ◼   ► Why?

01:17:27 ◼   ► Those are iPad apps.

01:17:28 ◼   ► That's their stopgap.

01:17:29 ◼   ► That's their way of like, you get this, what can I run out besides the built-in apps?

01:17:32 ◼   ► Well, you got a million iPad apps that you can run, and that's not what we want you to

01:17:36 ◼   ► do with it, but it's something until those apps start shipping.

01:17:40 ◼   ► So it's up to Apple to foster an ecosystem that makes people make actual native vision

01:17:44 ◼   ► pro apps.

01:17:45 ◼   ► So what I'm saying is I think the correct donor platform for the stopgap apps is more,

01:17:49 ◼   ► it would be better to be the Mac because those apps are designed to have multiple windows

01:17:55 ◼   ► arranged.

01:17:56 ◼   ► Maybe not all around you, but arranged all over the place.

01:17:59 ◼   ► But we'll say maybe just multiple iPad apps is exactly fine as a stopgap.

01:18:03 ◼   ► But I would think if you, if anyone, I mean, I know because of the API things, that's not

01:18:06 ◼   ► how it works, but someone porting a complicated app, final cut pro for vision pro, should

01:18:12 ◼   ► it be, should you start from the iPad version of that app or should you start from the Mac

01:18:16 ◼   ► version?

01:18:17 ◼   ► You're making a native vision pro version, but which version should you start from?

01:18:20 ◼   ► And I think you should start from the Mac one, but they certainly won't because of the

01:18:24 ◼   ► API differences.

01:18:25 ◼   ► So that's a whole other kettle of fish, but you know, spiritually, I feel like, you know,

01:18:29 ◼   ► the canvas provided by the vision pro is so much more expansive than the canvas provided

01:18:33 ◼   ► by the iPad.

01:18:34 ◼   ► It makes me think more of the Mac.

01:18:36 ◼   ► Well, I think there are some critical differences though.

01:18:38 ◼   ► Like, you know, as, as a lot of like the VR bloggers and stuff have pointed out, like

01:18:43 ◼   ► the density of the displays and the sizing of them, I would think about it more like

01:18:48 ◼   ► TV screens than monitors.

01:18:50 ◼   ► Like, you know, you look at computer monitors, they're very dense.

01:18:52 ◼   ► You look at them much closer up.

01:18:54 ◼   ► TV screens are big and beautiful.

01:18:56 ◼   ► And you look at them from like, you know, eight or 10 feet away maybe.

01:18:59 ◼   ► And it's a very different way of using it.

01:19:01 ◼   ► Like, you know, imagine if, if computing was, was really fast and easy on an Apple TV and

01:19:08 ◼   ► you had an infinitely sized screen on the Apple TV, like, but you're still sitting on

01:19:11 ◼   ► the couch looking at something six feet away.

01:19:13 ◼   ► When you look at how windows are laid out in these VR headsets, like the, you know,

01:19:18 ◼   ► the distance they're simulating of how far in front of you they are, relatively how large

01:19:21 ◼   ► they are.

01:19:22 ◼   ► And you look at things like the density of the displays, like how many pixels they actually

01:19:26 ◼   ► have.

01:19:27 ◼   ► It's nowhere near the density of computer monitors.

01:19:29 ◼   ► And so I would be surprised if when, when people actually use these, if they ended up

01:19:36 ◼   ► actually wanting Mac-like density of controls and density of text and things that I think

01:19:41 ◼   ► what we're going to want is going to end up looking kind of halfway between iPad apps and

01:19:45 ◼   ► Apple TV apps.

01:19:46 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:19:47 ◼   ► Well, with the current density, you're right, because you know, it's 4K per eyeball, but

01:19:51 ◼   ► as we talked about when these initially launched, your floating window does not fill up.

01:19:56 ◼   ► Fill your entire field of vision probably.

01:19:58 ◼   ► So you're not even getting a 4K screen, which is, it's, you know, it's a, it's an achievement

01:20:02 ◼   ► that they've apparently achieved the text legibility that they have, but it's not 200

01:20:06 ◼   ► pixels per inch, four feet from you.

01:20:08 ◼   ► Not even close.

01:20:09 ◼   ► And it'll probably be a long time before we had that kind of hardware.

01:20:12 ◼   ► I don't know how long, they've, they've making good advances, but yeah, but the initial version

01:20:15 ◼   ► isn't.

01:20:16 ◼   ► So that, I mean, that's, that's why a lot of these screenshots, they do look like Apple

01:20:19 ◼   ► TV apps, like viewable from six feet away, big chunky controls, but they do also have

01:20:25 ◼   ► lots of accessory stuff floating around.

01:20:27 ◼   ► Yeah, they do.

01:20:28 ◼   ► That's why they like, I mean, it isn't, there is no like direct paradigm, like, Oh, it's

01:20:31 ◼   ► just like a big iPad or what you can't say it's just like any of the platforms, but I,

01:20:37 ◼   ► I really think it's going to end up being more like a combination of iPad plus Apple

01:20:42 ◼   ► TV than Mac anything.

01:20:44 ◼   ► Like I think that the sizing and the density and everything is all wrong for the Mac.

01:20:48 ◼   ► I mean, if we had displays that could support it though, it would be great to do during

01:20:54 ◼   ► for doing Mac stuff in the same way.

01:20:56 ◼   ► If you had three pro display XDRs in front of you, right?

01:20:59 ◼   ► If you had the density in that device to support the actual resolution of three protests, why

01:21:03 ◼   ► XDRs at arm's length around you, that would be amazing.

01:21:07 ◼   ► And people would love it because it's smaller and hopefully cheaper than three protests

01:21:10 ◼   ► the ours, and you don't need to connect them with cables, but that's not this generation

01:21:14 ◼   ► or product.

01:21:15 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:21:16 ◼   ► I do understand what you're saying though, John, that the Mac does at a glance seem like

01:21:21 ◼   ► a better donor platform.

01:21:22 ◼   ► But I think I have to come down on where Marco is in that.

01:21:26 ◼   ► I think we're going to end up in this kind of weird, and I don't necessarily mean bad,

01:21:30 ◼   ► but just maybe unusual halfway world between like iPad and Apple TV, like Marco was saying.

01:21:35 ◼   ► And I expect that.

01:21:37 ◼   ► That's another reason why TV applications like as in watching actual movies and television

01:21:40 ◼   ► shows is great for this because you're not going to notice the resolution deficit because

01:21:46 ◼   ► it's television.

01:21:47 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:21:48 ◼   ► So with that in mind, we've been talking and kind of glancing off the discussion about

01:21:52 ◼   ► the app ecosystem and whatnot.

01:21:53 ◼   ► So I've been thinking a lot about what I want to do with regard to this and history says,

01:22:00 ◼   ► I will be the first to tell you, I'm starting right out and telling you history says I'm

01:22:03 ◼   ► going to pre-order one because I'm a sucker and that's what I do.

01:22:05 ◼   ► Of course you are.

01:22:06 ◼   ► But I'm trying to, I'm trying to be rational about this, which is not something I'm typically

01:22:11 ◼   ► capable of doing.

01:22:12 ◼   ► And I'm probably wasting everyone's time by even talking about this because I'll end up

01:22:15 ◼   ► ordering one.

01:22:16 ◼   ► But like, I don't think coming back to our conversation a little while ago about like,

01:22:22 ◼   ► did people really want an iPhone?

01:22:23 ◼   ► Like sitting here now, I don't know if I want to spend $3,500 starting at ease.

01:22:31 ◼   ► The starting at as, as a consumer.

01:22:34 ◼   ► Now this is with my consumer hat on.

01:22:36 ◼   ► I have not yet put on my developer hat, but as a consumer, I don't know what I would use

01:22:43 ◼   ► this for that would justify $3,500.

01:22:48 ◼   ► Like that is a tremendous amount of money, a truly tremendous amount of money.

01:22:54 ◼   ► And for people who are saying, Oh, you buy laptops like that all the time.

01:22:57 ◼   ► You know what you're going to use the laptop for.

01:22:59 ◼   ► Like it's not a speculative use case.

01:23:00 ◼   ► You know, you're going to get out of the box and you know exactly what you're going to

01:23:03 ◼   ► use it for.

01:23:04 ◼   ► I mean, just for the point of comparison though, John, how much is that really nice TV that

01:23:07 ◼   ► you like?

01:23:08 ◼   ► I know what I'm going to use that for too.

01:23:09 ◼   ► That's what I'm saying.

01:23:10 ◼   ► It's speculative because like, it's not so much the price cause I'm, I'm, I'm preempting

01:23:13 ◼   ► people who are going to say you're complaining about $3,500, but every computer you ever

01:23:16 ◼   ► buy is more than that.

01:23:17 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:23:18 ◼   ► But we all know what we're going to do with the computers or the television.

01:23:21 ◼   ► We know exactly what we're going to do with them.

01:23:22 ◼   ► We know how the well they're going to do it.

01:23:24 ◼   ► And we know there, we already have something that we're doing and this is going to be a

01:23:26 ◼   ► better one.

01:23:27 ◼   ► So we plunked down that money for those easily.

01:23:29 ◼   ► But for this one, I think Casey's question is apt, which is like, if I wasn't a developer,

01:23:33 ◼   ► even though it seems like a cool thing to get for $3,500, what am I going to do with

01:23:37 ◼   ► it again?

01:23:38 ◼   ► Like the fear is you get it, you try it.

01:23:39 ◼   ► You try the few pieces of software for it and then it's $3,500 thing sitting in the

01:23:43 ◼   ► corner of your room.

01:23:44 ◼   ► Right, exactly.

01:23:45 ◼   ► And I think in the defense of expensive TVs and expensive computers, whether or not Marco

01:23:50 ◼   ► or I change computers like underwear, which I don't think either of us does as much as

01:23:55 ◼   ► I give Marco a hard time.

01:23:57 ◼   ► And I certainly don't think I do, but that being said, any of the three of us could use

01:24:03 ◼   ► any of the computers that we've bought recently for years, years and years and years.

01:24:08 ◼   ► And sorry, that implies that you are literally incapable of using a vision pro for years.

01:24:13 ◼   ► That's not what I mean.

01:24:14 ◼   ► But my M1 MacBook Pro that I just recently got rid of, I did not need to get rid of that.

01:24:22 ◼   ► I chose to because I'm a sucker for space black and I'm an idiot, but I didn't need

01:24:27 ◼   ► to.

01:24:28 ◼   ► I could have held onto that computer for another probably two to maybe even four years, which

01:24:34 ◼   ► would have made a sum total of what, four to six years of in-service, which for a laptop,

01:24:39 ◼   ► I know how much we hate laptops, John, but like for a laptop, I think two to somewhere

01:24:44 ◼   ► between four and six years is a pretty good run.

01:24:46 ◼   ► It's not, you know, it's not a humongously long run, but it's not a bad run by any stretch

01:24:51 ◼   ► of the imagination.

01:24:52 ◼   ► Your TV, when did you buy your fancy pants, non-plasma TV?

01:24:56 ◼   ► That was what, two years ago, a year ago?

01:24:58 ◼   ► 2022, I think.

01:24:59 ◼   ► Okay.

01:25:00 ◼   ► So it was almost two years ago.

01:25:02 ◼   ► And what's the likelihood you're going to replace a TV in the next two years?

01:25:06 ◼   ► Very low.

01:25:07 ◼   ► Exactly.

01:25:08 ◼   ► And so whether now you might choose to do it in a couple of years because there's a

01:25:12 ◼   ► technology that you're really jazzed by and you're really understood, but I'm saying like

01:25:17 ◼   ► we could elect one could elect to replace these things, but I don't think it will be

01:25:21 ◼   ► compulsory.

01:25:22 ◼   ► Whereas with the vision pro, I am less convinced that it will hold up for much more than two

01:25:29 ◼   ► years.

01:25:30 ◼   ► It's like a series zero watch.

01:25:31 ◼   ► It's the first worst one.

01:25:32 ◼   ► Right.

01:25:33 ◼   ► Exactly.

01:25:34 ◼   ► This is going to be, hopefully that will be the worst one they ever make.

01:25:36 ◼   ► And if they do any kind of like significant turns in the course they're taking, like for

01:25:42 ◼   ► instance, if they did get rid of the front facing display or things like that, if they

01:25:46 ◼   ► were able to integrate the battery into the unit, like there are like some turns that

01:25:51 ◼   ► they might be making with subsequent revision of the product that will make this one feel

01:25:55 ◼   ► and look really old within probably a much shorter time than the useful lifetime of the

01:26:00 ◼   ► next one that will come out just because it is version zero.

01:26:03 ◼   ► Don't buy the apple vision pro edition.

01:26:04 ◼   ► Some advice.

01:26:05 ◼   ► It's not going to hold up.

01:26:07 ◼   ► So as a consumer, like I don't, it's hard for me to justify spending $3,500 and the

01:26:14 ◼   ► funnily enough, the thing that I think most strongly makes me want this as a consumer,

01:26:21 ◼   ► again, we'll talk developer in a second, but as a consumer, I think the thing that I'm

01:26:25 ◼   ► most interested in for this is if I could put aside the fact that I'll look like a total

01:26:30 ◼   ► doofus wearing this thing, if I could bring this to like a library or Wegmans or, you

01:26:37 ◼   ► know, a coffee shop or what have you.

01:26:39 ◼   ► And if I could, if I just, if I could not care about what I looked like, which I don't

01:26:42 ◼   ► think I'm capable of, but if in this fantasy world where I don't care what other people

01:26:46 ◼   ► are thinking as they're looking at me, I guess I'm always in the, uh, the completely, uh,

01:26:50 ◼   ► in, you know, uh, the, the, what do they call it?

01:26:52 ◼   ► The experience where you can't see anything around you, uh, immersive.

01:26:55 ◼   ► There it is.

01:26:56 ◼   ► I'm always in the immersive experience.

01:26:58 ◼   ► So I never, I can never see the people that are looking at me like I'm an idiot.

01:27:00 ◼   ► But anyway, uh, the thing that I think is most appealing about this to me is having

01:27:04 ◼   ► a 4k version of my laptop screen and you know, wherever I want, wherever I go.

01:27:10 ◼   ► And that strikes me as though it would be extremely cool because then I can have my

01:27:14 ◼   ► 4k laptop screen right in front of me and I can have maybe the iPad version of Slack

01:27:18 ◼   ► off to the side.

01:27:19 ◼   ► I have an iPad version or vision pro strictly speaking version of Safari off to the other

01:27:23 ◼   ► side.

01:27:24 ◼   ► And now I've got one heck of a nice workstation that I can bring pretty much anywhere.

01:27:29 ◼   ► And that does appeal to me.

01:27:31 ◼   ► I don't think it appeals to me for $3,500 but it appeals to me nonetheless.

01:27:36 ◼   ► And so as a person, I want Marco to buy one and I want him to tell us what he thinks.

01:27:43 ◼   ► You know that'll happen.

01:27:44 ◼   ► Right.

01:27:45 ◼   ► And I want like a local friend.

01:27:46 ◼   ► I don't have one in mind, but just, you know, I want one of my local friends to buy one

01:27:49 ◼   ► a little friend with the same shape faces you.

01:27:51 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:27:52 ◼   ► The same prescription.

01:27:53 ◼   ► Well, no, you can snap in and out the prescription lenses.

01:27:55 ◼   ► Can't you?

01:27:56 ◼   ► Oh yeah.

01:27:57 ◼   ► But no, I take your point though.

01:27:58 ◼   ► You know, I want a local friend to get one so I can play with it, but I don't know that

01:28:01 ◼   ► I want one for me yet.

01:28:04 ◼   ► And I'm not saying that's forever, but I don't know if I want one for me yet.

01:28:07 ◼   ► So all that in mind, now I put on my developer hat and everything gets real muddy real quick

01:28:13 ◼   ► because it's not money.

01:28:15 ◼   ► For that is you need one because you're developing an app for it.

01:28:18 ◼   ► The end.

01:28:19 ◼   ► Well, but, but for what income?

01:28:20 ◼   ► Well, so it's both sides of this, right?

01:28:22 ◼   ► So on the one side, yes, I agree with what you said, John, that I, I'm going to have,

01:28:27 ◼   ► I don't know if I'll have it on launch, probably not at launch day, but I will have a version

01:28:30 ◼   ► of call sheet that works reasonably well, hopefully on the vision pro.

01:28:35 ◼   ► And I think it makes a lot of sense in the vision pro because if you can have, and I've

01:28:39 ◼   ► had people write, write to me and confirm that this is possible because I genuinely

01:28:42 ◼   ► truly do not remember it from my experience at the lab.

01:28:45 ◼   ► If it is possible to have a non immersive video player, and then you can slide call

01:28:50 ◼   ► sheet right next to it, which people are telling me that's possible.

01:28:54 ◼   ► You can slide call sheet right next to it and you can be looking at a video and looking

01:28:58 ◼   ► at call sheet at the same time, you know, mind exploding.

01:29:00 ◼   ► It's amazing.

01:29:02 ◼   ► And that sounds really cool.

01:29:03 ◼   ► And it sounds like it would be a really great idea to have it there.

01:29:08 ◼   ► And it would be very useful to have it there.

01:29:10 ◼   ► Additionally, as the chat room is pointing out, if by some miracle I can get it there

01:29:14 ◼   ► for launch and it isn't a pile of garbage, which are two big ifs, then I could maybe

01:29:18 ◼   ► get Apple to feature it or have, you know, reviewers featured.

01:29:21 ◼   ► I mean, imagine if iJustine gets a copy of this and somehow stumbles upon call sheet.

01:29:25 ◼   ► I don't know how that would happen, but just for the sake of discussion, then suddenly

01:29:28 ◼   ► I'm having my widgetsmith moment.

01:29:29 ◼   ► I don't expect that, but you never know.

01:29:32 ◼   ► On a platform that has no users.

01:29:33 ◼   ► Yeah, you can have a widgetsmith moment on a platform with a million users.

01:29:37 ◼   ► Sorry.

01:29:38 ◼   ► I'm going to have a widgetsmith moment on this platform for some time.

01:29:40 ◼   ► No, you can sell to 100% of the user base and you're still not there.

01:29:44 ◼   ► Exactly.

01:29:45 ◼   ► And the problem is, and I was actually, I had a monthly FaceTime with James Thompson,

01:29:48 ◼   ► a friend of the show, James Thompson, who does pcalc and many other things.

01:29:52 ◼   ► And he and I were chatting this morning and he pointed out to me a really good thing,

01:29:55 ◼   ► which is so obvious, but I hadn't thought about, that even if call sheet arrives on

01:30:00 ◼   ► the Vision Pro and even if I can, you know, I can get it to the point that it's not embarrassing,

01:30:06 ◼   ► even despite those things, it's the same skew as it is on iOS, on iPadOS, on MacOS.

01:30:12 ◼   ► It's all universal.

01:30:13 ◼   ► It's all the same skew.

01:30:15 ◼   ► So a lot, maybe even all of these users have already paid me.

01:30:20 ◼   ► They I've already gotten the money from them.

01:30:22 ◼   ► Why is it necessarily the same skew?

01:30:24 ◼   ► You can make a dedicated vision OS version.

01:30:25 ◼   ► I could, but I don't plan on it.

01:30:27 ◼   ► I mean, I could, I absolutely could, but I was not planning on it.

01:30:29 ◼   ► No, you totally should.

01:30:30 ◼   ► Why wouldn't you?

01:30:31 ◼   ► But you would have a shared subscription model.

01:30:35 ◼   ► You can have the same bundle ID and have it still be running native.

01:30:37 ◼   ► Like you can, like there's all, but you, but you'd have to like submit it to the Vision

01:30:41 ◼   ► Pro side of the app store separate.

01:30:43 ◼   ► That's the only thing that has to be separate.

01:30:44 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:30:45 ◼   ► I mean, like I think, I feel like universal apps where you, you write one app and it runs

01:30:48 ◼   ► on all the platforms you can pay for it once.

01:30:50 ◼   ► Customers love them, but as a single indie developer, it's economically unfeasible.

01:30:54 ◼   ► I feel like.

01:30:56 ◼   ► No, honestly, it depends a lot on how much you, how much work you have to do from your

01:31:03 ◼   ► existing code base to support this new platform.

01:31:05 ◼   ► And that's why, you know, I think we're going to see a lot of people doing what I'm going

01:31:08 ◼   ► to be doing, which is I'm going to permit my iPad app to run for a while.

01:31:12 ◼   ► And I do intend to have a native version of Overcast for Vision Pro.

01:31:17 ◼   ► I'm not going to make it anywhere near launch day.

01:31:20 ◼   ► So for now iPad version, and then we'll see.

01:31:22 ◼   ► Very similar in a lot of ways to if you have an iPhone app and you want to make it run

01:31:27 ◼   ► on the iPad.

01:31:28 ◼   ► Well, if the iPad is going to be a huge part of your market, maybe put a lot of time and

01:31:33 ◼   ► thought into that.

01:31:34 ◼   ► If it's only going to be kind of an accessory part of your market, you don't have to do

01:31:38 ◼   ► everything custom for the iPad.

01:31:40 ◼   ► You can just let the phone app run on the iPad with minimal modifications and it maybe

01:31:44 ◼   ► it won't be ideal, but it'll be fine.

01:31:48 ◼   ► That's something we can do here.

01:31:49 ◼   ► Like you know, this, this platform is going to have very low sales volume for a while,

01:31:53 ◼   ► so it's not going to be able to financially justify huge investments of custom work for

01:31:58 ◼   ► it for an existing app necessarily, unless there's a really big market for it on this.

01:32:03 ◼   ► As mentioned last time, I don't think I have a big market.

01:32:05 ◼   ► I think Casey yours is bigger than mine, so your calculus will be different than mine

01:32:08 ◼   ► here.

01:32:09 ◼   ► But when I bring Overcast to Vision OS, I have some ideas on how I can do it and kind

01:32:16 ◼   ► of the experience I want it to be like.

01:32:18 ◼   ► And to be honest, they're all pretty simple ideas that will require a bit of a more limited

01:32:22 ◼   ► experience than like the full everything app with every single feature crammed into whatever

01:32:28 ◼   ► window size I can get it crammed into.

01:32:30 ◼   ► Like I'm looking at a very different design, but it would be a lower effort design for

01:32:34 ◼   ► lots of reasons.

01:32:35 ◼   ► That's going to be easier to justify because this platform is going to have no users basically

01:32:39 ◼   ► for a while.

01:32:41 ◼   ► And so, but you know, so what you're saying Casey is like there is a clear market for

01:32:44 ◼   ► you to bring CallSheet to Vision OS with a native app that uses the same IAP as your

01:32:51 ◼   ► iOS app and much or most or all of the same code even.

01:32:56 ◼   ► I don't know how much effort it will be worth for you to like invest two months of development

01:33:01 ◼   ► time into it.

01:33:02 ◼   ► That is probably not worth it.

01:33:03 ◼   ► Oh no.

01:33:04 ◼   ► At least at this point.

01:33:05 ◼   ► No, I don't think it's worth it at all.

01:33:06 ◼   ► And I guess the question I'm really asking both indirectly and now directly is I think

01:33:12 ◼   ► I should put a modicum of effort into it to the order of like two weeks, not two months.

01:33:18 ◼   ► And I think that's fair, but I don't know if I even I think putting two weeks or so

01:33:24 ◼   ► of effort is fair.

01:33:25 ◼   ► But do I really want to spend $3,500 worth of money or leaving aside the effort?

01:33:30 ◼   ► Do I want to spend all that money just to get CallSheet on here?

01:33:32 ◼   ► Like I don't know if it's because I don't think I'll recoup.

01:33:34 ◼   ► Well, it's not worth it for the two week effort app, but I think I mean aren't you in visiting

01:33:38 ◼   ► a future where you would spend more than two weeks to make a an actual really good Vision

01:33:43 ◼   ► OS version of your thing to be alongside the video when people are watching it?

01:33:47 ◼   ► Like potentially yes, but that would I don't I wouldn't be justified in doing that unless

01:33:52 ◼   ► I felt like I was getting some sort of financial return from the effort.

01:33:55 ◼   ► What you're getting is a first mover advantage or you'd be early in the market.

01:34:00 ◼   ► No, the first year you're not going to make that money back probably.

01:34:03 ◼   ► But year two or three, you're already there.

01:34:05 ◼   ► You're the one that people know when they read the reviews.

01:34:07 ◼   ► Oh, if you're watching movies, you want to watch a thing.

01:34:09 ◼   ► IMDb just has a shovelware port of their iPad app and it's terrible, but CallSheet looks

01:34:13 ◼   ► OK.

01:34:14 ◼   ► Like you're getting in early in the hopes that you'll be the de facto look things up

01:34:18 ◼   ► about the video that I'm watching in Vision Pro.

01:34:21 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:34:22 ◼   ► I think from a developer's point of view, even though I don't particularly want to spend

01:34:27 ◼   ► $3,500 on this, particularly after spending a whole pile of money on this laptop, which

01:34:30 ◼   ► I probably shouldn't have done, I think I'm sitting here now, I'm leaning towards buying

01:34:37 ◼   ► one.

01:34:38 ◼   ► And then the other thing that I need to consider is I actually have a third hat, which is the

01:34:41 ◼   ► one I'm actually wearing right now, which is as a podcaster.

01:34:45 ◼   ► And I think it would make for much better programming on this very show if at least

01:34:50 ◼   ► one, preferably two, or in a perfect world, three of us have one of these to play with.

01:34:55 ◼   ► Well, I have a solution to that, by the way.

01:34:57 ◼   ► It's called Apple Sends Us Review Units.

01:34:59 ◼   ► If only, John.

01:35:00 ◼   ► If only.

01:35:01 ◼   ► You don't get to keep them forever.

01:35:02 ◼   ► I'll talk to Gruber about that.

01:35:04 ◼   ► Define forever.

01:35:05 ◼   ► On an infinite timeline, Gruber will return all his products.

01:35:08 ◼   ► Yeah, exactly.

01:35:09 ◼   ► No, I mean, I agree with you that I'd love a review unit, but ultimately, for better

01:35:14 ◼   ► or worse, I can continue to whine and moan about this.

01:35:16 ◼   ► But ultimately, it seems clear that we are not on Apple's radar in that capacity.

01:35:20 ◼   ► And so I have to just understand I can't wait for that to happen.

01:35:24 ◼   ► So I have to understand.

01:35:25 ◼   ► That's not going to happen.

01:35:26 ◼   ► Don't wait for it.

01:35:27 ◼   ► Right.

01:35:28 ◼   ► So I need to take matters into my own hands.

01:35:29 ◼   ► And I think as a podcaster and as a developer, two of the three hats that I'm wearing say,

01:35:34 ◼   ► "I should probably try to pick one of these up."

01:35:36 ◼   ► Now, I haven't talked to the family CFO yet, and I have a feeling they might have some

01:35:41 ◼   ► conflicting opinions about this.

01:35:44 ◼   ► But sitting here now, it seems like—and I still have made a final decision—but it

01:35:48 ◼   ► seems like it's probably prudent for me to get one so that this way I can make CallSheet

01:35:52 ◼   ► as good as it can reasonably be done.

01:35:54 ◼   ► Because I can tell you, I don't think it's unfair for me to say that spending the day

01:36:00 ◼   ► in the lab gave me a lot of useful feedback.

01:36:05 ◼   ► And I'm saying just from myself, in using the app, it was incredibly useful to experience

01:36:13 ◼   ► it on the actual platform as compared to the simulator.

01:36:16 ◼   ► And the simulator is very good for what it is, but having experienced it on the actual

01:36:20 ◼   ► device gave me all sorts of clues and ideas and things to do that I never would have considered

01:36:27 ◼   ► had I not had the thing on my face.

01:36:29 ◼   ► And I don't think Apple would be grumpy at me for saying that.

01:36:32 ◼   ► So in so many ways, I think I'll probably also be lining up on the virtual queue on

01:36:37 ◼   ► a week from Friday or whatever it is, and trying to put my hands on one.

01:36:41 ◼   ► I will probably get the cheapest one they will possibly sell me, which is still a damn

01:36:44 ◼   ► fortune.

01:36:45 ◼   ► Yeah, I would call it the least expensive, not the cheapest.

01:36:47 ◼   ► Yeah, exactly, exactly.

01:36:49 ◼   ► But I don't know.

01:36:50 ◼   ► It's funny because I seem so morose and down on it, and I actually don't mean to.

01:36:55 ◼   ► And again, now I'm getting into dangerous territory because I don't want to talk about

01:36:58 ◼   ► what happened at the lab.

01:37:00 ◼   ► But there is a lot about this platform to be very excited about.

01:37:04 ◼   ► And I think Marco was hinting at the same earlier.

01:37:06 ◼   ► There's a lot to be excited about here.

01:37:09 ◼   ► It's just I find the price so off-putting, which may sound nuts, but I think of myself

01:37:15 ◼   ► as a relatively frugal person.

01:37:17 ◼   ► And I know especially in the last six months, some of my expenditures may indicate otherwise.

01:37:21 ◼   ► But generally speaking, I don't enjoy spending money just for spending money's sake.

01:37:26 ◼   ► And I really try to be prudent and frugal with my expenditures.

01:37:31 ◼   ► And it's so much money.

01:37:34 ◼   ► It's so much money on what seems to be a hope and a prayer.

01:37:38 ◼   ► And that's the thing that just freaks me out.

01:37:41 ◼   ► And I hope so much that...

01:37:44 ◼   ► I can tell you there's a lot of potential in this platform.

01:37:46 ◼   ► And again, now I'm starting to get into dangerous territory again.

01:37:48 ◼   ► But there's a lot of potential in this platform.

01:37:51 ◼   ► And I really hope that between Apple and third-party developers it gets realized because there's

01:37:55 ◼   ► a lot there.

01:37:56 ◼   ► I think, first of all, however much we want to hem and haw about the price will not matter

01:38:02 ◼   ► at all.

01:38:03 ◼   ► Because if there's any truth whatsoever to the rumors that they can only make, say, a

01:38:07 ◼   ► million a year, there's enough rich people in the world who will jump on this that it

01:38:12 ◼   ► won't matter what the YouTubers say and what we all say about the price.

01:38:15 ◼   ► That's an interesting point, yeah.

01:38:16 ◼   ► If they can truly only make it in relatively small volumes, there are enough buyers out

01:38:20 ◼   ► there who will buy it at that price.

01:38:22 ◼   ► It won't matter.

01:38:24 ◼   ► So setting that aside, for a developer's point of view, I think your suspicion is correct,

01:38:30 ◼   ► you will not make $3,500 in sales on this platform in all likelihood in the first year.

01:38:37 ◼   ► That seems very unlikely.

01:38:39 ◼   ► And so, again, gauge your level of effort accordingly.

01:38:43 ◼   ► For us in particular, I think it makes total sense to buy it just because, again, this

01:38:46 ◼   ► podcast is a big part of our careers and jobs and income, and so we need it just for that,

01:38:51 ◼   ► honestly.

01:38:52 ◼   ► Even if none of us had any other use for it other than to try it and talk about it, we

01:38:56 ◼   ► should probably all get it just for that purpose alone.

01:38:59 ◼   ► Nerds like us are going to try to somehow rationalize this price because it's cool,

01:39:05 ◼   ► but you don't need to rationalize the price.

01:39:08 ◼   ► It can just be cool.

01:39:10 ◼   ► There are concert tickets that are this expensive, and people pay them because it's cool and

01:39:16 ◼   ► they want it.

01:39:17 ◼   ► Like, that's it.

01:39:18 ◼   ► That's enough of a reason sometimes.

01:39:20 ◼   ► We can try, again, try to justify it as much, whatever you need to do to justify it, justify

01:39:24 ◼   ► it.

01:39:25 ◼   ► That's fine, but many of the buyers of the Vision Pro, especially in this first year,

01:39:31 ◼   ► are going to be people who are buying it because they think it's cool and they want it.

01:39:34 ◼   ► They don't need to say, "Well, I'll be able to get my work done," or, "I can fund it with

01:39:37 ◼   ► my development."

01:39:38 ◼   ► Nope.

01:39:39 ◼   ► You don't and you can't.

01:39:40 ◼   ► It's just cool and you want it.

01:39:42 ◼   ► That's okay.

01:39:43 ◼   ► As long as you can lose that amount of money and not harm your family as a result or something,

01:39:49 ◼   ► or not get yourself into debt.

01:39:51 ◼   ► If you can afford it, it's okay to spend money on things that make you happy and are cool

01:39:56 ◼   ► to you.

01:39:57 ◼   ► That's all it needs to be, and there's enough people in the world who can spend that money,

01:40:02 ◼   ► who will do it just solely for those reasons.