ATP

00:00:00 ◼   ► I am not looking forward to Friday.

00:00:02 ◼   ► Not at all.

00:00:03 ◼   ► Hey, so you want to do some follow up?

00:00:07 ◼   ► Yeah, I think we only have one item here and it's a tiny little throwaway thing.

00:00:11 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:00:12 ◼   ► Oh, here we go.

00:00:13 ◼   ► Buckle up.

00:00:14 ◼   ► How many times have we said this and then it's like 40 minutes?

00:00:15 ◼   ► It'll be fine.

00:00:16 ◼   ► I'm trying to think why we didn't have a lot of follow up.

00:00:19 ◼   ► Last time we talked all about like Mac pros and stuff, maybe people were like, okay, fine.

00:00:24 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:00:26 ◼   ► The Mac mini thing that is in the topic section is a natural follow-on from last thing.

00:00:33 ◼   ► Not to be confused with follow-up from last week's topic.

00:00:35 ◼   ► Or out.

00:00:36 ◼   ► Yes.

00:00:37 ◼   ► Who invented follow-on?

00:00:38 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:00:39 ◼   ► Is it even a thing?

00:00:40 ◼   ► I think I was just using the actual term, the actual phrase as in something that naturally

00:00:45 ◼   ► comes after another thing.

00:00:46 ◼   ► I mean, you probably thought the same thing when you were first using follow-up, and then

00:00:50 ◼   ► it turns out you invented that.

00:00:51 ◼   ► No, because there was a format associated with that.

00:00:54 ◼   ► There was a format.

00:00:55 ◼   ► the format for follow-on? In the next show you do a topic that naturally follows the

00:01:03 ◼   ► topic on the previous show? I don't know. I think it's whatever you say it is.

00:01:07 ◼   ► Well, we'll see. If I do it for like two years regularly with a strict format in every

00:01:12 ◼   ► single episode, then we'll see what we got. So let me just state for the record that we

00:01:17 ◼   ► immediately ended up on a tangent on this thing that will be very quick.

00:01:22 ◼   ► - It's fine.

00:01:23 ◼   ► - Carry on, Joe. - I figured why there wasn't

00:01:26 ◼   ► a lot of follow up.

00:01:27 ◼   ► So the only item I have is more chair follow up.

00:01:30 ◼   ► - Of course.

00:01:31 ◼   ► - I can't, I forget.

00:01:32 ◼   ► - I love this.

00:01:34 ◼   ► - Last week I think I was sitting on the gesture, right?

00:01:37 ◼   ► - I think you had just started sitting on the gesture

00:01:38 ◼   ► like that day or sometime recently.

00:01:41 ◼   ► - Yeah, so I used it for a few days or whatever,

00:01:43 ◼   ► but I've swapped it back now for the Embody.

00:01:47 ◼   ► Now we're like, I took the old chairs out of the room,

00:01:48 ◼   ► so now we're in the actual trial period

00:01:51 ◼   ► I'm gonna try one chair and my wife will try the other and then we'll switch back and forth and see how we go

00:01:55 ◼   ► I kind of know what I think of both of the chairs so far

00:01:59 ◼   ► and

00:02:02 ◼   ► I wish there was one that was just such a clear winner, but the big lumpy thing underneath the embody annoys me

00:02:09 ◼   ► But I think I like the embody like I think it fits my body you better than the gesture

00:02:15 ◼   ► So anyway, the only bit of follow-up I have is last week

00:02:19 ◼   ► I was sitting on the gesture, but I was wondering how I was going to figure out how to take

00:02:23 ◼   ► off the arms.

00:02:24 ◼   ► And I'm happy to report that I did successfully remove the arms without too much fuss.

00:02:28 ◼   ► It was just a tiny little bit tricky.

00:02:31 ◼   ► It wasn't actually tricky.

00:02:33 ◼   ► It's straightforward unless you are...

00:02:37 ◼   ► If you don't have a lot of experience disassembling things, it's...

00:02:42 ◼   ► This is how you get experience to some of the things.

00:02:44 ◼   ► You do it the wrong way when you're a kid a lot.

00:02:46 ◼   ► Maybe adults don't do this.

00:02:47 ◼   ► frequently as a child if I wanted to take something apart and I took a lot of things apart

00:02:50 ◼   ► you would look at it and be like I want that thing to come off and

00:02:54 ◼   ► You'd look around for a couple seconds and see if there's any obvious screw heads poking out somewhere or something like, you know

00:03:00 ◼   ► What do I need to unscrew or?

00:03:02 ◼   ► Untwist or whatever to make this come out and if you don't see anything you're then you're like well

00:03:06 ◼   ► I've got a lot of tools and I'm pretty clever

00:03:09 ◼   ► I have a posable thumbs and I'm a clever little using monkey I can get that off like it's coming off, right?

00:03:15 ◼   ► You just you you realize that you can do it

00:03:18 ◼   ► You're like I have I have leverage and and friction and all the whole sorts of things that will get this thing off

00:03:24 ◼   ► But you end up destroying the thing when you're taking it off

00:03:27 ◼   ► And so the steel case gesture chair is one of those devices where any

00:03:31 ◼   ► Tool using monkey and look at the thing and say I can get those arms off

00:03:36 ◼   ► Probably like I kind of have an idea like I see some some squishy plastic bits

00:03:40 ◼   ► It seemed like they have seams and even though I don't see any

00:03:43 ◼   ► Screws that I can unscrew to get it undone

00:03:45 ◼   ► I see a lot of things that are soft enough that I can pry them off and surely underneath those things if I pry them

00:03:51 ◼   ► Off will be the screws that I seek and I'll be able to remove these arms

00:03:55 ◼   ► But me having some experience to sell me things knows how this goes

00:03:59 ◼   ► Yeah, you probably will eventually do it that way

00:04:01 ◼   ► But there's also a very good chance that you will pry off all these soft parts and damage them and underneath them will just be

00:04:07 ◼   ► Scary unyielding metal that doesn't help you at all

00:04:10 ◼   ► So take two seconds to think about it, and I did take two seconds to think about it

00:04:14 ◼   ► I didn't pry the thing open in destroy because you know it's expensive chair

00:04:17 ◼   ► And I want to you know be nice to it anyway like I said this is so it comes with the experience to take things apart

00:04:21 ◼   ► so I

00:04:24 ◼   ► found

00:04:25 ◼   ► You could feel the underside of some very large screws that were probably holding the arms on but there's no way you could get at

00:04:32 ◼   ► the top of them

00:04:33 ◼   ► because there was no like there was you couldn't see the top of them and

00:04:37 ◼   ► And I'm like, look, well, this chair went together.

00:04:39 ◼   ► Someone assembled this chair,

00:04:40 ◼   ► and it's not like so many Apple things,

00:04:42 ◼   ► one-way assembly with tabs that don't untab

00:04:47 ◼   ► or things that iFixit has to remove with heat

00:04:50 ◼   ► because they're glued.

00:04:51 ◼   ► - First put this beanbag in the microwave.

00:04:54 ◼   ► - Right, exactly.

00:04:55 ◼   ► Yeah, or even just things, a lot of things snap together,

00:04:58 ◼   ► like a plastic snap together model

00:04:59 ◼   ► where there's a slot in the tab

00:05:01 ◼   ► and they really only go in one direction

00:05:02 ◼   ► and you have no way to push that tab back out

00:05:05 ◼   ► without breaking it.

00:05:06 ◼   ► But I figured a chair is not like that.

00:05:08 ◼   ► So the trick of it, in case you're wondering,

00:05:10 ◼   ► is the seat of the steel case chair

00:05:13 ◼   ► slides forward and back on like a little,

00:05:15 ◼   ► like it's like rack and pinion steering.

00:05:16 ◼   ► There's like a little rack thing

00:05:18 ◼   ► and then a little gear that turns, right?

00:05:20 ◼   ► And I could see that to get to the top of the screw heads

00:05:23 ◼   ► that I wanted to get at,

00:05:24 ◼   ► they would probably be underneath the back of the seat.

00:05:26 ◼   ► So I moved the seat forward,

00:05:27 ◼   ► but I couldn't remove the sort of plastic shroud.

00:05:29 ◼   ► It's not like a car,

00:05:30 ◼   ► plastic shroud that was probably covering

00:05:32 ◼   ► what I imagined to be the tops of those screws.

00:05:34 ◼   ► And I'm like, oh, if the seat goes forward,

00:05:36 ◼   ► I looked underneath the seat,

00:05:37 ◼   ► there's no screws underneath there,

00:05:38 ◼   ► but there's one tiny little tab

00:05:40 ◼   ► that was like stopping the seat

00:05:42 ◼   ► from going completely forward.

00:05:44 ◼   ► So you can move it forward and back.

00:05:45 ◼   ► And what prevented it?

00:05:46 ◼   ► Why did it stop going forward?

00:05:48 ◼   ► This is one tiny little tab

00:05:49 ◼   ► and it was made of flexible springy metal.

00:05:52 ◼   ► All right, so push that little springy tab down

00:05:55 ◼   ► into the slot and now all of a sudden the chair,

00:05:57 ◼   ► you can just keep turning the dial

00:05:58 ◼   ► and the chair slides right off the front.

00:05:59 ◼   ► Like the seat slides right off the front in one piece,

00:06:01 ◼   ► perfectly fine.

00:06:02 ◼   ► And then you have access to the body of the seat and then there's a plastic thing with some little you know

00:06:07 ◼   ► You peel off the plastic shroud with some little plastic clippy things in there. You'll see

00:06:11 ◼   ► the apparently expensive chair industry standard which is a t30 Torx screws and

00:06:17 ◼   ► They were like six of them and they were really hard to undo and they're humongous

00:06:21 ◼   ► Ebbol once I had all six of them out the arms came right off. No damage done at all reassembled perfectly

00:06:27 ◼   ► So happy to report that I now have two armless chairs and did not damage them and now I have

00:06:32 ◼   ► What I imagine is several hundred dollars worth of useless arms up in my attic

00:06:37 ◼   ► That's by the way, that's a I don't know even know if I would sell them because I'm such a hoarder but um

00:06:47 ◼   ► Point something I wish I had known earlier is you can buy the embody without arms for like $100 less

00:06:55 ◼   ► If you can find someone who will sell to you you can configure without arms and you will save like a hundred bucks on it

00:07:00 ◼   ► So it's no small amount as far as I could tell there was no place where you could buy

00:07:02 ◼   ► The gesture without arms booth gesture the arms in the gesture are kind of like half the point of the chair

00:07:08 ◼   ► They're very very configurable. They're actually really cool arms. I just don't want them on my chair. So that's it for my update

00:07:13 ◼   ► I'm sitting on the embody. There are no arms and we're off to the races life is good

00:07:17 ◼   ► Wait, what about your wife though? What if she wants arms on her chair tough no geez, she doesn't she doesn't want them

00:07:23 ◼   ► Oh, that was part of the prenup?

00:07:25 ◼   ► No, it was not part of the prenup, but she told me I don't want arms.

00:07:29 ◼   ► So they get in the way. She's used to having a chair with no arms as well, and they just get in the way.

00:07:33 ◼   ► So no arms for anybody.

00:07:35 ◼   ► I think that's bananas. I can't imagine not having arms on my chair. I'm serious, too.

00:07:39 ◼   ► I explained this in Slack today because you missed it, but I don't know if people deal with arms on a chair.

00:07:43 ◼   ► Like, if your arms are positioned ergonomically on the keyboard, like it should be like if you look at

00:07:50 ◼   ► yourself sitting at the seat in profile

00:07:52 ◼   ► It should be a 90 degree L from like your shoulder straight down to your elbow and then 90 degrees out to the keyboard

00:07:58 ◼   ► Right, that's where you want to be in that position

00:08:01 ◼   ► especially if you have long arms like mine your elbows are already low enough that they're probably bumping into the armrests like and

00:08:08 ◼   ► even if the armrests are below where your arms are if

00:08:11 ◼   ► You relax or move or whatever your arms might bump into the armrests

00:08:15 ◼   ► And I just feel like I feel constrained by the armrests that my elbows are constantly bumping them

00:08:19 ◼   ► So then I find myself pulling in my elbows to instinctively avoid bumping into the armrests, and that is uncomfortable and tense

00:08:26 ◼   ► So that's the first thing and the second thing is I apparently get in and out of the chair

00:08:29 ◼   ► Sideways all the time and when there are arms there you can't do that

00:08:33 ◼   ► Like you know you have to climb over them you have to rotate their pull out the chair and by the way these chairs are

00:08:37 ◼   ► Really heavy I wish they were lighter, and they don't roll that well on the carpet

00:08:41 ◼   ► But but bottom line is I get into the chairs from the side and once their arms

00:08:43 ◼   ► You can't get in from the side and the third the arms hit against my keyboard trait because of the height

00:08:48 ◼   ► They would have to be like if I put the arms below the level of my keyboard tray

00:08:52 ◼   ► They'd be so low that they'd be like hitting my hips and not my elbows

00:08:54 ◼   ► But like what the hell's the point thing?

00:08:56 ◼   ► So they're just they just arms just don't fit into my chair life at all

00:09:00 ◼   ► And I imagine a lot of people who have arms in their chair who don't mess with them

00:09:03 ◼   ► Their keyboard is too high

00:09:05 ◼   ► Like if your keyboard is on your desk chances are good

00:09:08 ◼   ► Your keyboard is too high

00:09:09 ◼   ► like if you sit properly and type and your arms do not make perfect 90 degree L's or or a

00:09:15 ◼   ► Larger angle so like you know 95 degrees or whatever so that the the angle at your elbows is bigger than 90

00:09:21 ◼   ► Then you're probably your keyboard is too high which may not bother you, but it's super bothers me a lot

00:09:25 ◼   ► Now all I can think of is I'm envisioning you

00:09:29 ◼   ► Mounting a chair by hopping one leg over it like Jonathan Frakes. You know I was gonna pull

00:09:35 ◼   ► I was gonna do the right reference like nobody's gonna get that but I guess

00:09:38 ◼   ► Me me enough the case you got it. Oh come on. I love the next generation

00:09:43 ◼   ► Why you gotta do this to me, Daddy?

00:09:44 ◼   ► Yeah, but when you watch Next Generation, did you know about that or did you only know

00:09:47 ◼   ► about it after the meme came?

00:09:48 ◼   ► Yeah, only after.

00:09:52 ◼   ► I think I'm more disappointed when I hear John Syracuse, "Mm-hmm," than when my own

00:09:56 ◼   ► father does the equivalent.

00:09:59 ◼   ► This is an abusive relationship.

00:10:00 ◼   ► Your own father has a podcast?

00:10:02 ◼   ► Oh my goodness.

00:10:05 ◼   ► Let's just move on to Ask ATP.

00:10:07 ◼   ► And Jonathan Rogers would like to know, "How do you all feel about Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies?

00:10:12 ◼   ► Do you think that there is a real long term value in them or are they just short term

00:10:14 ◼   ► speculation plays?

00:10:16 ◼   ► Do you buy into the underlying structure for sustaining billions of transactions in the

00:10:19 ◼   ► future or do you and do you hold any coins of any type?

00:10:23 ◼   ► I know almost nothing about any of this and have no cryptocurrencies of any sort.

00:10:28 ◼   ► And I would love to be enlightened.

00:10:30 ◼   ► And I did hear Glenn Fleischman, I think on the talk show, try to describe, he did describe

00:10:34 ◼   ► Bitcoin and it still flew right over my head.

00:10:37 ◼   ► And so I just don't get it.

00:10:39 ◼   ► I treat Bitcoin the same way I treat all other kind of

00:10:43 ◼   ► high risk, mostly luck based or speculation based

00:10:47 ◼   ► investments, which is, this is a game that other people play

00:10:51 ◼   ► that I should not play, and so I don't play.

00:10:54 ◼   ► I don't even own individual stocks anymore.

00:10:57 ◼   ► I used to have some of my savings be in an E-Trade account

00:11:02 ◼   ► that I could buy and sell individual stocks from,

00:11:05 ◼   ► and I did for a couple of years,

00:11:06 ◼   ► and I came out a little ahead,

00:11:09 ◼   ► but I was always worried about it,

00:11:11 ◼   ► and the ups and downs really annoyed me

00:11:12 ◼   ► and stressed me out, and all the index funds

00:11:16 ◼   ► over the same time beat my performance.

00:11:19 ◼   ► So it wasn't like I was being particularly special

00:11:21 ◼   ► or clever.

00:11:22 ◼   ► Pretty much any kind of manually managed

00:11:27 ◼   ► individual investments like this

00:11:30 ◼   ► are, I think, not a good use of my time or my money.

00:11:36 ◼   ► If you are a person who's more into doing that

00:11:39 ◼   ► and you get a lot of interest and value out of that,

00:11:43 ◼   ► that can be your game and more power to you.

00:11:46 ◼   ► But I decided that the best way for me to make more money

00:11:50 ◼   ► was to just do things that made me money,

00:11:52 ◼   ► like do more of them. (laughs)

00:11:53 ◼   ► And that was better than trying to extract

00:11:56 ◼   ► an extra five or 10% a year out of some

00:11:59 ◼   ► potentially lucky investments

00:12:00 ◼   ► that oftentimes weren't so lucky.

00:12:02 ◼   ► Bitcoin to me is no different than playing stocks.

00:12:06 ◼   ► It really isn't.

00:12:07 ◼   ► It's a volatile foreign currency basically.

00:12:10 ◼   ► Foreign exchange markets, commodity markets,

00:12:12 ◼   ► these are all types of commodity tradings.

00:12:15 ◼   ► Bitcoin is not the first thing to do this.

00:12:17 ◼   ► This world has existed for a very long time.

00:12:20 ◼   ► It is very clear what can happen in this world,

00:12:22 ◼   ► what can go well, what can go poorly.

00:12:25 ◼   ► Bitcoin is in some ways even less secure

00:12:27 ◼   ► than a lot of those things because of the way it works.

00:12:29 ◼   ► But as a way to make money,

00:12:34 ◼   ► I wouldn't advise people put a lot of faith

00:12:37 ◼   ► in systems like this.

00:12:39 ◼   ► As a fun thing to play around with,

00:12:40 ◼   ► or if you're doing it for more political reasons,

00:12:42 ◼   ► like you wanna make a statement about not being part

00:12:44 ◼   ► of the official banking systems and everything,

00:12:48 ◼   ► you might have other reasons.

00:12:51 ◼   ► But for making money, I don't think,

00:12:53 ◼   ► I think it's just, you might as well go to Vegas.

00:12:56 ◼   ► It's just gambling.

00:12:57 ◼   ► It's a different form of gambling.

00:13:01 ◼   ► I view this kind of in the same category as many other things in my life where I feel

00:13:08 ◼   ► like I was well positioned to know about this type of thing, because it's a tech thing,

00:13:17 ◼   ► well positioned to know about this thing more than regular people, to know about it sooner,

00:13:20 ◼   ► to understand it better, to sort of get into the ground floor, like another example are

00:13:24 ◼   ► a lot of like the internet IPOs and stuff from, you know, back in the days when no one

00:13:28 ◼   ► understood the internet, but I certainly did because I was on it very early, right? As

00:13:32 ◼   ► a techie person, there are some, you have some advantages in some realms and Bitcoin

00:13:37 ◼   ► falls into that category. And like all those other things, I kind of think of it as a yet

00:13:44 ◼   ► another case where I failed to make a lot of money and I could have. Because like, for

00:13:50 ◼   ► example, you know, if we all knew what we know now and put us back into 1990, like we

00:13:55 ◼   ► we would all be bazillionaires because you just know, you would know to like, first of

00:13:59 ◼   ► all, buy all the domain names you can get for like common names because some company

00:14:02 ◼   ► will buy them from you later. Like second of all, sink all your money into the stocks

00:14:06 ◼   ► that we know are going to go crazy, right? Like, you know, it's easy to go back in time

00:14:09 ◼   ► and understand, but we were there early and it's like, I knew domain names would have

00:14:12 ◼   ► value, but they were like, you know, 200 bucks to get one with Verisign or whatever. And

00:14:17 ◼   ► I couldn't afford that because I was a college student, you know, working a part-time job

00:14:21 ◼   ► to pay for my books living in a crappy dorm. Timing was kind of good, but not really. Same

00:14:27 ◼   ► thing with investment. I could have invested, I could have got a large amount of VA Linux

00:14:33 ◼   ► stock, because I contributed to CPAN, right? But I didn't have that kind of money to invest.

00:14:38 ◼   ► And I could have got like a 500% return on my investment if I had had the money to invest.

00:14:42 ◼   ► So Bitcoin, similarly, when Bitcoin was first going around, it was like, "Oh, I read up

00:14:48 ◼   ► on it, I learned about it, understood what the deal with it was. I even got to the point

00:14:51 ◼   ► where I downloaded the software and was mining for coins on my incredibly slow computer,

00:14:55 ◼   ► whatever the hell it was at that time, right? But I didn't, you know, didn't take it super

00:15:01 ◼   ► seriously and didn't invest a lot of time in it and, you know, it was kind of boring

00:15:06 ◼   ► to mine for coins and I was like, "Eh, I think I..." I don't remember what I got out of it.

00:15:11 ◼   ► Some fractional Bitcoin probably exists on some backup of my hard drive somewhere or,

00:15:15 ◼   ► You know, I don't know if I got one Bitcoin out of it. It's like oh you should dig that up

00:15:18 ◼   ► It's worth 700 bucks now. Like I don't even know what the hell that crap is

00:15:20 ◼   ► There's just another problem with the system that it's so based on like, you know, do you ever lose track your files?

00:15:26 ◼   ► Well, how would you feel those files are worth thousands of dollars?

00:15:28 ◼   ► So

00:15:32 ◼   ► but but unlike the investing gambling things it was a type of situation where

00:15:36 ◼   ► There was the possibility because that you are a nerd that you could have with like with no risk and no money upfront

00:15:43 ◼   ► It sounds like an ad like you just spend a little time on your computer because you're there early and because it was easier

00:15:48 ◼   ► To mine coins in the beginning than it is now right computationally speaking

00:15:52 ◼   ► You could have done what many people did is if you're just a little bit more interested in it and you had

00:15:58 ◼   ► Mind coins a little bit more thoroughly for like a month or something that didn't cost you anything

00:16:04 ◼   ► It's not like you're putting your life savings into it

00:16:05 ◼   ► You spent a little bit of time and you're having some fun and it's a hobby and it's an interesting thing

00:16:09 ◼   ► It's technically and why you doing this because you're a nerd and you know about this stuff and that

00:16:12 ◼   ► that would be worth a huge amount of money now, but I didn't do that. So the way I view Bitcoin is,

00:16:17 ◼   ► if you were in really early and mined when they were easy and held them instead of buying them to

00:16:22 ◼   ► order pizza like so many people did in the sad stories where they ordered, you know, they sold

00:16:26 ◼   ► their Bitcoins and ordered a pizza for 20 bucks and now the Bitcoins that they ordered that pizza

00:16:31 ◼   ► with are worth like, you know, 50 grand and I feel bad about it, right? I guess I suppose that would

00:16:35 ◼   ► be worse. But that time is over. Like we all miss that. And now it is like Marco said, it's just

00:16:41 ◼   ► just like, okay, well, now you look at it and you're like, this is just a giant soap

00:16:46 ◼   ► bubble floating through the air. That's either about to burst or something terrible will

00:16:51 ◼   ► happen or like it is, it is so incredibly risky and scary and you're, you know, supposed

00:16:58 ◼   ► to buy low and sell high, not to buy high and hope it's going to go way higher. And

00:17:02 ◼   ► obviously that's terrible advice if you're thinking of investing in Apple and it's 10

00:17:06 ◼   ► ago, but there's risk. You have to put in money to make money at this point, whereas

00:17:13 ◼   ► in the beginning, you put in nothing to make potentially huge, or nothing to make nothing.

00:17:17 ◼   ► It's like penny stocks. It's like very little investment, probably is going to come to nothing,

00:17:22 ◼   ► but it's such a small amount. And it's a fun thing to do. If you're into this nerdy stuff,

00:17:26 ◼   ► it's kind of fun. It's like Seddie at home, but for money. So I regret, obviously, not getting

00:17:33 ◼   ► more into it earlier but what can you do you can't tell the future and so anyway i have no

00:17:39 ◼   ► interest in getting into it now i don't quite understand how they could ever sustain any large

00:17:43 ◼   ► transaction volume i see lots of potential pitfalls this but i think it is very technically

00:17:47 ◼   ► interesting using math to make a bunch of uh parties who don't trust each other have a

00:17:54 ◼   ► verifiable trust relationship for transactions i think that's an important advancement both the

00:17:59 ◼   ► the math behind it, which is probably not that new,

00:18:01 ◼   ► but the implementations of it, which it is new idea to say,

00:18:04 ◼   ► can we actually implement this in a safe way without bugs

00:18:07 ◼   ► and problems and without letting more than 51% of the swarm

00:18:10 ◼   ► get a quorum and tip the whole market or whatever the hell?

00:18:14 ◼   ► Anyway, I think it's cool, but it's not for me.

00:18:16 ◼   ► - As much as I'm staying far away from it,

00:18:19 ◼   ► I know I've had no desire to get into it

00:18:22 ◼   ► for financial reasons, it is technically beautiful.

00:18:26 ◼   ► Like it is an amazing technical accomplishment and idea and I really respect that.

00:18:33 ◼   ► But you know, despite all of its other problems, it is pretty awesome of an idea and a concept

00:18:37 ◼   ► and I just have no interest in gambling with it as a financial instrument.

00:18:43 ◼   ► Well, what's not beautiful about it unfortunately is that due to the constraints of the current

00:18:47 ◼   ► implementations as in like what is it, parties that don't trust each other can have verifiable

00:18:52 ◼   ► relationships at low transaction volumes.

00:18:55 ◼   ► It has found its ecological niche, which is selling drugs and all sorts of illegal things.

00:19:01 ◼   ► There's a small number of parties who really, really don't trust each other and really don't

00:19:05 ◼   ► want to use the banking system, and they don't have a large transaction volume.

00:19:09 ◼   ► And so that's kind of sad.

00:19:13 ◼   ► But the transaction volume actually is a problem.

00:19:15 ◼   ► You can't move the entire banking system to a cryptocurrency until they sort those things

00:19:18 ◼   ► out, and who knows if they will.

00:19:20 ◼   ► But I do really like the idea of whatever, disintermediation or whatever the phrase was

00:19:24 ◼   ► in the 90s, which I think is still an important thing

00:19:27 ◼   ► because nobody likes middlemen.

00:19:30 ◼   ► When the middleman is math,

00:19:32 ◼   ► then there are lots of interesting things that can happen.

00:19:35 ◼   ► - Well, the other problem then is like,

00:19:36 ◼   ► the environmental cost of Bitcoin is really non-trivial.

00:19:41 ◼   ► Like, the amount of energy being wasted

00:19:46 ◼   ► because all of a sudden, wasting massive amounts of energy

00:19:49 ◼   ► now has a financial upside for the people

00:19:52 ◼   ► who are doing it, much more so than I think

00:19:54 ◼   ► it ever has before for doing apparently no other work.

00:19:57 ◼   ► That is not good.

00:19:59 ◼   ► It is a beautiful technical system that,

00:20:03 ◼   ► yeah, I think if you're right that like,

00:20:05 ◼   ► if it never scaled to be incredibly big,

00:20:07 ◼   ► it would have stayed a beautiful technical system,

00:20:10 ◼   ► but because of how big it is and because of how much money

00:20:13 ◼   ► could be made in it,

00:20:15 ◼   ► basically it's being exploited like crazy

00:20:19 ◼   ► for financial gain and the result is

00:20:24 ◼   ► pretty nasty burning of energy for no reason.

00:20:28 ◼   ► - Indeed.

00:20:28 ◼   ► Moving on, NeoIntendoNada,

00:20:32 ◼   ► which apparently somebody has translated to

00:20:34 ◼   ► I do not understand anything, would like to ask,

00:20:37 ◼   ► do you think the next iPhone SE will be called iPhone SE X?

00:20:41 ◼   ► Which was a funny thought to say the least.

00:20:46 ◼   ► - It'll be the Model 3.

00:20:48 ◼   ► - Yeah, exactly.

00:20:49 ◼   ► My thoughts on this is that the iPhone SE

00:20:52 ◼   ► just continue to be the iPhone SE. It will be more like a trim level, if you will, than

00:20:59 ◼   ► an individual model like iPhone 7. And so there will be, if there is another iPhone

00:21:04 ◼   ► SE, which I think there probably will be, and if it eventually gets all the nifty bits

00:21:10 ◼   ► from the iPhone X, then I think it will still just be the iPhone SE. It'll just be the,

00:21:16 ◼   ► you know, 2018 edition, if you will. I don't mean that in a literal sense, but it'll just

00:21:20 ◼   ► be the next version of it. What do you think Marco?

00:21:22 ◼   ► Yeah, honestly, I don't really care. It's a very nice important product, but I don't

00:21:27 ◼   ► really care what the name is. I could also say they might do SE2. I share your opinion

00:21:31 ◼   ► that it will probably get an update. I would expect it to get an update probably next spring.

00:21:36 ◼   ► Maybe it's called the SE2, maybe it's called the new iPhone SE, maybe it's called the iPhone

00:21:40 ◼   ► SE 2018 or whatever. It's fine. I put this question in here because I thought

00:21:45 ◼   ► it would be a quickie because I didn't think anyone would seriously try to answer it like

00:21:48 ◼   ► you two just did but good job for taking this. I just put it in here as yet another opportunity

00:21:54 ◼   ► for me to tell an old Mac person's story. For the people who don't know, I'm glad some

00:21:58 ◼   ► people in the chat room do know this, it shows that the right kind of old people are in our

00:22:01 ◼   ► chat room. But back in like 1988, '89, the Mac 2 had just come out and the successor

00:22:10 ◼   ► to the Mac 2 was called the Mac 2X. It was a faster version of the Mac 2. And the Mac

00:22:15 ◼   ► SE was the contemporary of the Mac 2, the all-in-one contemporary. So they made the Mac 2

00:22:19 ◼   ► gave way to the Mac 2X, so they had the Mac SE, naturally it should give way to the Mac SEX,

00:22:26 ◼   ► but of course they didn't want to do that because it spells out "sex" and they, you know, didn't want

00:22:30 ◼   ► to have a product by that name. So instead of calling it the Mac SEX, they called it the Mac SE/30,

00:22:37 ◼   ► and the SE30 is my favorite Mac ever, and its entire name is derived from Apple's desire not

00:22:43 ◼   ► not to have a computer named Sex.

00:22:45 ◼   ► And so it's funny, all these years later,

00:22:47 ◼   ► that they have painted themselves into the same corner

00:22:49 ◼   ► by having a successor product with a capital letter X

00:22:52 ◼   ► in its name and having a product with SE

00:22:54 ◼   ► whose natural successor were they to follow

00:22:56 ◼   ► that naming convention and make one with a notch

00:22:58 ◼   ► or something would have an X.

00:22:59 ◼   ► And so I think they should call it the iPhone SE30.

00:23:02 ◼   ► - Well, and also, I mean, realistically speaking,

00:23:04 ◼   ► sex thing aside, the X or X branding is the high-end phone.

00:23:09 ◼   ► And it's gonna remain the high-end phone

00:23:11 ◼   ► for probably quite some time.

00:23:13 ◼   ► I would honestly be surprised if, by the time,

00:23:16 ◼   ► like if the use of the letter X in the iPhone name

00:23:20 ◼   ► does indeed end up filtering down the line,

00:23:22 ◼   ► which is not a given, it might not.

00:23:24 ◼   ► If it filters down the line over time,

00:23:26 ◼   ► I bet by the time it gets to the point

00:23:28 ◼   ► where it would be suitable to use on a low-end model,

00:23:30 ◼   ► the iPhone SE will not be the name

00:23:32 ◼   ► that's used anymore for that model.

00:23:33 ◼   ► Like they will have moved on to some other naming convention

00:23:36 ◼   ► where SE is no longer used.

00:23:38 ◼   ► So it's a funny question, but I don't think

00:23:42 ◼   ► it would even be under consideration

00:23:44 ◼   ► because they're not bringing the letter X

00:23:46 ◼   ► down that low in the line.

00:23:48 ◼   ► - Yeah, and anyway, it's capital and it's a 10.

00:23:51 ◼   ► Like back in the Mac days, it was a lowercase x

00:23:53 ◼   ► and it was pronounced x.

00:23:55 ◼   ► So it really would have been a capital S,

00:23:57 ◼   ► capital E, lowercase x, and the two x was Roman numeral two,

00:24:00 ◼   ► you know, two big bars and then the lowercase x.

00:24:03 ◼   ► So that was it.

00:24:04 ◼   ► I just wanted to tell the story of the SC-30

00:24:05 ◼   ► for the people who don't know it.

00:24:07 ◼   ► I feel better for having known that story.

00:24:09 ◼   ► And in a very sad and terrible turn of events,

00:24:15 ◼   ► I did not get to do the Ask ATP notes before Jon did.

00:24:21 ◼   ► And normally that'd be kind of nice

00:24:23 ◼   ► 'cause I've had a busy week,

00:24:24 ◼   ► but Jon has added the following question to Ask ATP.

00:24:29 ◼   ► So if you have any upset or angry emails

00:24:32 ◼   ► that you would like to send or tweets,

00:24:33 ◼   ► please send them to Jon Seracusa.

00:24:35 ◼   ► Anyway, James or James D, who asks,

00:24:38 ◼   ► "What's the best place to start

00:24:40 ◼   ► "when trying to listen to Fish?"

00:24:41 ◼   ► - John, do you have any opinions on this?

00:24:44 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:24:45 ◼   ► - My opinion is that everybody should get a question

00:24:47 ◼   ► that's aimed at them every once in a while,

00:24:49 ◼   ► so this one's for you, Marko.

00:24:50 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:24:51 ◼   ► - Casey, do you wanna go first?

00:24:52 ◼   ► - I would say that you're gonna say

00:24:55 ◼   ► some sort of live show, probably the New Year's Eve show

00:24:58 ◼   ► from the most recent year.

00:24:59 ◼   ► - Okay, so basically, what you need to know

00:25:02 ◼   ► getting into Phish is that the albums are a great place to start to get to know what

00:25:08 ◼   ► their music roughly sounds like, but what most Phish fans listen to most of the time

00:25:13 ◼   ► is the live shows because they are substantially better if Phish is the kind of thing you're

00:25:19 ◼   ► into. Like, you can listen to the albums first, and they're on every streaming service now,

00:25:23 ◼   ► and everybody has a streaming subscription for something these days, so you can listen

00:25:28 ◼   ► listen to Phish music on pretty much anywhere,

00:25:30 ◼   ► any service you have, I would suggest start,

00:25:34 ◼   ► if you can, if your service has it, and most of them do,

00:25:37 ◼   ► start with one of the live albums.

00:25:40 ◼   ► Now, it's a little different than most bands in that

00:25:43 ◼   ► while they have live album releases that span

00:25:46 ◼   ► like the last 20 years, they've put out maybe 10

00:25:49 ◼   ► official albums that are live.

00:25:50 ◼   ► And one of the first ones is called a live one.

00:25:53 ◼   ► That's on all the services, you can definitely listen

00:25:55 ◼   ► a live one if you wanted to, and it's good.

00:25:58 ◼   ► But unlike most bands, every single Phish show,

00:26:02 ◼   ► every concert they do is recorded from the soundboard,

00:26:06 ◼   ► professionally mastered, and released a few hours

00:26:08 ◼   ► after the show ends as a legal, purchasable download

00:26:12 ◼   ► from a site that they're affiliated with

00:26:13 ◼   ► called livephish.com, I think.

00:26:16 ◼   ► Live Phish also has iOS apps where I think

00:26:19 ◼   ► you can stream for free, you just can't pick

00:26:21 ◼   ► what they're playing, but it's like a constant live stream

00:26:24 ◼   ► that I think you can do for free.

00:26:25 ◼   ► So if you listen on your streaming service of choice

00:26:28 ◼   ► and you decide that this is something you wanna hear more of

00:26:31 ◼   ► the way to get more into it is not to go listen

00:26:33 ◼   ► to all their studio albums if you don't really,

00:26:36 ◼   ► the way to get into it is to listen to more live shows.

00:26:38 ◼   ► And once you exhaust the official releases

00:26:41 ◼   ► that they've done over time,

00:26:43 ◼   ► the way to get more into it after that

00:26:44 ◼   ► is to go to Live Fish, their app or their website,

00:26:48 ◼   ► and either preview for free or buy the stuff there.

00:26:52 ◼   ► And that's it. And enjoy.

00:26:55 ◼   ► That took a lot less time than I expected.

00:26:57 ◼   ► I hope you'll insert some fish clip after you say the word "enjoy" at that point.

00:27:03 ◼   ► Just like a guitar riff, or like three of the words from the middle of the nine words that are in the middle of a half an hour song.

00:27:08 ◼   ► [music]

00:27:18 ◼   ► You have to put in "meat stick" because that is the most preposterous fish song.

00:27:21 ◼   ► ♫ Time for the meat stick

00:27:23 ◼   ► ♫ Bury the meat stick

00:27:24 ◼   ► ♫ Take out the meat stick

00:27:26 ◼   ► ♫ Time

00:27:27 ◼   ► - Well, which one?

00:27:28 ◼   ► I have, hold on, 37 recordings of meat stick

00:27:33 ◼   ► in my collection.

00:27:33 ◼   ► So, for reference, I have 7,700 fish songs,

00:27:37 ◼   ► over 112 gigs that span 42 days of total time.

00:27:42 ◼   ► And that's only what they've done since about 2009.

00:27:46 ◼   ► - And you buy every single show, is that right?

00:27:48 ◼   ► - Yeah, I buy the, like they have like season passes

00:27:50 ◼   ► on Live Fish whenever a new tour is announced

00:27:53 ◼   ► and you can pre-order the entire tour as legal downloads.

00:27:57 ◼   ► So I just do that.

00:27:58 ◼   ► So usually it's like a couple hundred bucks

00:27:59 ◼   ► for a whole summer tour or something like that

00:28:01 ◼   ► and I just do that.

00:28:03 ◼   ► If you're, so I should point out too,

00:28:05 ◼   ► if you're more into going to concerts,

00:28:09 ◼   ► they put on a great show and they put on lots of them.

00:28:11 ◼   ► And so even though they sell out,

00:28:14 ◼   ► they put on just so many shows

00:28:15 ◼   ► that they aren't that hard to get into if you try.

00:28:18 ◼   ► and you don't have to pay a ridiculous price

00:28:20 ◼   ► to do it or anything.

00:28:21 ◼   ► So if you are a concert goer,

00:28:23 ◼   ► I highly suggest you go to their concerts.

00:28:25 ◼   ► I personally just don't enjoy going to concerts very much.

00:28:27 ◼   ► I have been to exactly one fish show and it was fine,

00:28:31 ◼   ► but I didn't feel like I needed to go to more.

00:28:33 ◼   ► I really love listening to the live shows,

00:28:36 ◼   ► but I'm not a concert person.

00:28:36 ◼   ► But if you're a concert person,

00:28:38 ◼   ► especially if you're into the drug scene at all,

00:28:39 ◼   ► which again, I am not,

00:28:41 ◼   ► they are apparently a great place to be

00:28:43 ◼   ► if you're into that.

00:28:44 ◼   ► We are sponsored this week by Aftershokz.

00:28:47 ◼   ► bone conduction headphones.

00:28:48 ◼   ► Go to ATP.aftershocks.com to learn more.

00:28:52 ◼   ► Aftershocks headphones work by bone conduction.

00:28:54 ◼   ► So small transducers resting in front of your ears

00:28:57 ◼   ► send small vibrations through your cheekbones

00:29:00 ◼   ► directly to your inner ear.

00:29:02 ◼   ► So they're not really putting anything

00:29:03 ◼   ► in or on your ears themselves.

00:29:05 ◼   ► It's all going through your cheekbone

00:29:07 ◼   ► from the front of your ear.

00:29:08 ◼   ► So this leaves your actual ears totally open

00:29:11 ◼   ► with nothing blocking them, nothing making them sweaty,

00:29:14 ◼   ► nothing making them hurt.

00:29:15 ◼   ► So of course this is great for comfort,

00:29:17 ◼   ► for exercise, for hot weather.

00:29:19 ◼   ► They're even IP55 certified for water resistance,

00:29:21 ◼   ► so you don't have to worry about that.

00:29:23 ◼   ► The biggest thing for me, the big advantage of these

00:29:25 ◼   ► is because they leave your ears open,

00:29:27 ◼   ► you hear the world around you in addition to,

00:29:30 ◼   ► say, the podcast you're listening to

00:29:31 ◼   ► or the phone call you're taking.

00:29:33 ◼   ► So this actually isn't so great

00:29:34 ◼   ► if you're in a very loud place,

00:29:36 ◼   ► like a subway station in a big city.

00:29:38 ◼   ► But it's awesome if you want to do things like

00:29:41 ◼   ► listen to a podcast or take a phone call while walking

00:29:44 ◼   ► or while running or cycling,

00:29:46 ◼   ► where you really need to hear the world around you

00:29:48 ◼   ► for practical or safety reasons.

00:29:51 ◼   ► And that could be as simple as you're at home

00:29:53 ◼   ► and you need to take a phone call

00:29:54 ◼   ► or you wanna listen to podcasts

00:29:55 ◼   ► and you wanna know maybe when your kid upstairs

00:29:57 ◼   ► wakes up from their nap.

00:29:58 ◼   ► Or if somebody knocks on the door,

00:30:00 ◼   ► you wanna be able to hear it.

00:30:01 ◼   ► So this is great, not for loud environments,

00:30:04 ◼   ► not for like pristine music listening,

00:30:06 ◼   ► but for practical speech content.

00:30:08 ◼   ► Phone calls, podcasts, audiobooks, it's great for that

00:30:12 ◼   ► when you're in an environment where you want

00:30:14 ◼   ► or need to hear the world around you.

00:30:16 ◼   ► I highly suggest using these things

00:30:18 ◼   ► if you have a need like that.

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00:30:20 ◼   ► I'm a big fan.

00:30:21 ◼   ► I had great headphones that I loved before this

00:30:24 ◼   ► for walking around and these have totally replaced them.

00:30:26 ◼   ► They are wonderful.

00:30:27 ◼   ► So check out the Aftershokz line of headphones.

00:30:29 ◼   ► They have the titanium model which I had at first.

00:30:32 ◼   ► They now also have the air model which is even lighter

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00:30:39 ◼   ► Check out the lineup today at ATP.Aftershokz.com.

00:30:42 ◼   ► That's ATP.aftersocks.com.

00:30:45 ◼   ► Thank you so much to AfterSocks for sponsoring our show.

00:30:47 ◼   ► (upbeat music)

00:30:51 ◼   ► - So this week, as we record, in fact it will be

00:30:55 ◼   ► in just a couple of days, is iPhone 10 pre-order time.

00:31:00 ◼   ► Because the world revolves around California

00:31:03 ◼   ► and California's stuck in the past,

00:31:05 ◼   ► which is to say outside of Hawaii and I guess Alaska,

00:31:09 ◼   ► it is the last American time zone,

00:31:11 ◼   ► please don't email me. The pre-orders will go up at midnight California time, and as

00:31:19 ◼   ► they do every year, California gives a big middle finger to the rest of the world, especially

00:31:23 ◼   ► country. And at three o'clock in the morning, I will be waking up on Friday morning to pre-order

00:31:28 ◼   ► two iPhone 10s, one for me, one for Aaron. And I genuinely, genuinely will be stunned

00:31:36 ◼   ► if I receive either of these in 2017.

00:31:41 ◼   ► I will be getting one of the,

00:31:43 ◼   ► I don't remember the official name, white,

00:31:45 ◼   ► and one of the, I don't remember the official name, black.

00:31:47 ◼   ► (John laughs)

00:31:48 ◼   ► - That's all you need to know.

00:31:49 ◼   ► - Yeah, both 256 gigs because children and movies

00:31:54 ◼   ► and things of that nature,

00:31:55 ◼   ► and I will be sufficiently broke thereafter.

00:31:59 ◼   ► John, what is your intention for this coming Friday?

00:32:02 ◼   ► - So half the reason I put this topic in

00:32:03 ◼   ► was just to have someone who knows and cares more than I do tell me exactly what time this

00:32:09 ◼   ► is happening so I can decide whether I'm going to be doing anything. Obviously I'm not ordering

00:32:12 ◼   ► one for myself but potentially I could be trying to do this at 3 a.m. for my wife for

00:32:17 ◼   ► her phone. I need her to tell me what color she wants and what size I guess. Those are

00:32:22 ◼   ► the only options right? Color and size? Yeah. Yeah there's only two sizes 64 256 right so

00:32:27 ◼   ► So yeah, because even if, like, I think she wants to know whether she really wants this

00:32:34 ◼   ► first, but you can always cancel an order.

00:32:37 ◼   ► So it kind of makes sense to just, like, try to get in, and if you happen to get an order

00:32:40 ◼   ► and you're lucky, fine.

00:32:41 ◼   ► And probably before your order ships, you'll be able to, like, see it in a store or something,

00:32:44 ◼   ► I'm assuming.

00:32:45 ◼   ► And you can always just return it after, what is it, a 14-day return window or whatever.

00:32:50 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:32:51 ◼   ► So I assume that she's going to want a pre-order for this.

00:32:55 ◼   ► And so this may be the first time I actually do this.

00:32:56 ◼   ► I've never done it before because I was just waiting for my phone and normally she doesn't

00:32:59 ◼   ► care when we do it but I think she's getting impatient with her phone which by the way

00:33:02 ◼   ► this is her phone she's got an iPhone 6s plus and it's got the latest version of iOS 11

00:33:07 ◼   ► on it and she says it's like slowing down and getting all sort of stuttery and stuff

00:33:14 ◼   ► and I did notice her animations were stuttery so I turned on reduce motions like hey it's

00:33:17 ◼   ► fixed no more stuttery animations but she still complains that it's slow and crap like

00:33:22 ◼   ► maybe her storage is filling up, I gotta look at it,

00:33:25 ◼   ► but if anyone has any bright ideas on how to,

00:33:28 ◼   ► if there's some sort of problem related to iOS 11

00:33:32 ◼   ► that makes iPhone 6S Plus a slow down,

00:33:34 ◼   ► 'cause 6S Plus isn't that old, I think it should be fine,

00:33:36 ◼   ► but anyway, she's getting frustrated with her current phone

00:33:40 ◼   ► and wants the phone sooner rather than later.

00:33:42 ◼   ► So if she can't get in a pre-order for this,

00:33:45 ◼   ► she might just buy an 8 Plus,

00:33:47 ◼   ► which would be perfectly fine and she'd be happy with it,

00:33:49 ◼   ► but it's certainly more boring than trying the 10.

00:33:53 ◼   ► - Let me just put it on record, Jon,

00:33:54 ◼   ► before we hear Marco's intentions,

00:33:55 ◼   ► that if you order Tina a phone,

00:33:58 ◼   ► and if she does not want it,

00:33:59 ◼   ► I would like dibs on buying it off of you.

00:34:01 ◼   ► - Yeah, you don't even know what color it's gonna be.

00:34:03 ◼   ► - I don't care.

00:34:04 ◼   ► - Or what size, what if she wants a 64?

00:34:06 ◼   ► - I don't care.

00:34:07 ◼   ► I am that like, so this is the first worldiest

00:34:11 ◼   ► of first world problems, right?

00:34:12 ◼   ► That I'm this worked up as I get every year

00:34:15 ◼   ► about getting the new Apple hotness quickly.

00:34:17 ◼   ► But this is even worse than every other year

00:34:20 ◼   ► because Apple has all but come out and said,

00:34:22 ◼   ► or maybe they did say at some point,

00:34:23 ◼   ► but they've all but come out and said,

00:34:25 ◼   ► "Good friggin' luck getting this anytime soon."

00:34:27 ◼   ► So I am trying to work whatever angle I can

00:34:31 ◼   ► in order to get myself an iPhone X as quickly as possible.

00:34:34 ◼   ► That being said, Marco, what's your intention?

00:34:37 ◼   ► - So I'm gonna get, well, I'm going to try to get

00:34:40 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:34:41 ◼   ► the white one.

00:34:43 ◼   ► I love Kim Allberg, user in the chat, said,

00:34:46 ◼   ► the official color names are kinda black and somewhat white.

00:34:50 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:34:51 ◼   ► I'm going for the somewhat white variety.

00:34:54 ◼   ► - Oh, is that right?

00:34:55 ◼   ► - Yeah, you know, so I've had every single iPhone

00:34:59 ◼   ► that I've had so far has been in whatever version of black

00:35:03 ◼   ► was the blackest black they had that year.

00:35:05 ◼   ► And so like I have jet black iPhone 7 currently,

00:35:09 ◼   ► and you know, before that just space gray,

00:35:10 ◼   ► space gray, space gray.

00:35:11 ◼   ► It's funny, Apple has no idea what color space is clearly,

00:35:14 ◼   ► all the different space grays I've had, but it's just--

00:35:16 ◼   ► In various points in the past, I have had interest

00:35:19 ◼   ► in getting one of the lighter backed ones,

00:35:20 ◼   ► like the silver backed ones, just for variety's sake

00:35:23 ◼   ► or certain models, I thought it looked better.

00:35:25 ◼   ► But I never wanted the white front plate on it

00:35:30 ◼   ► like above the screen and everything.

00:35:32 ◼   ► Just like John, I just don't think those look very good.

00:35:34 ◼   ► Now I have the option to get either color

00:35:36 ◼   ► with the same black notch and black bezel around it.

00:35:40 ◼   ► So honestly, in the pictures I've seen so far,

00:35:43 ◼   ► which admittedly is not many of them

00:35:45 ◼   ► because nobody has these yet,

00:35:46 ◼   ► but in the picture I saw from the launch event

00:35:48 ◼   ► from the backstage area,

00:35:49 ◼   ► I thought the kinda white one looked better

00:35:52 ◼   ► than the somewhat black one.

00:35:54 ◼   ► But again, it could just be because I just want variety,

00:35:57 ◼   ► 'cause I've had so many black phones in a row.

00:35:59 ◼   ► Anyway, so I'm gonna go for that one.

00:36:01 ◼   ► I'm gonna go for the large capacity

00:36:03 ◼   ► and the Verizon or SIM-free one,

00:36:06 ◼   ► if I can at all get it anytime soon,

00:36:08 ◼   ► because I am an AT&T customer,

00:36:12 ◼   ► and I'm not interested in changing networks

00:36:13 ◼   ► because Verizon doesn't actually cover my house

00:36:15 ◼   ► or most of my neighborhood very well.

00:36:17 ◼   ► The reason I want the Verizon version,

00:36:18 ◼   ► despite not being a Verizon customer,

00:36:20 ◼   ► is that they're doing the same thing again this year

00:36:22 ◼   ► that they started last year with the 7,

00:36:24 ◼   ► which is that for the GSM only ones,

00:36:27 ◼   ► the ones that are being sold as AT&T phones in the US,

00:36:30 ◼   ► and I don't know what the situation is elsewhere,

00:36:32 ◼   ► those have an Intel cellular modem.

00:36:35 ◼   ► And the ones that are sold either SIM-free

00:36:38 ◼   ► or that are sold on CDMA-based networks,

00:36:40 ◼   ► like Verizon and Sprint are using a Qualcomm modem.

00:36:45 ◼   ► Allegedly when this started last year with the 7,

00:36:48 ◼   ► oh the modems are the same, it doesn't matter,

00:36:50 ◼   ► whatever phone you get it's fine.

00:36:51 ◼   ► And there have been other iPhones in the past

00:36:52 ◼   ► that had minor component variations,

00:36:54 ◼   ► like whether you got a Samsung or TSMC system on a chip

00:36:58 ◼   ► and I think the 6S generation had

00:37:00 ◼   ► a minor battery variation and stuff.

00:37:02 ◼   ► Anyway, I have found with my experience

00:37:05 ◼   ► with the Intel modem iPhone 7s on AT&T,

00:37:09 ◼   ► I've had a lot of call dropping problems

00:37:12 ◼   ► where my microphone on my phone will stop working

00:37:14 ◼   ► and the person on their end will not be able to hear me.

00:37:17 ◼   ► And I have done a lot of research,

00:37:18 ◼   ► I've heard from a lot of people, customers,

00:37:21 ◼   ► I've even heard from a few geniuses at Apple bars

00:37:24 ◼   ► or Groves or whatever, are they called arborists now

00:37:26 ◼   ► 'cause they're in the Grove?

00:37:27 ◼   ► I don't know what they are.

00:37:29 ◼   ► Anyway, I've heard from a couple of arborists

00:37:31 ◼   ► that this is actually a pretty big thing,

00:37:33 ◼   ► that it's a pretty widespread issue

00:37:36 ◼   ► that the Intel modem AT&T iPhone 7s

00:37:38 ◼   ► frequently have this issue where the microphone

00:37:42 ◼   ► drops out during a phone call.

00:37:43 ◼   ► Like this is just a thing.

00:37:45 ◼   ► And so I'm trying my best with this generation,

00:37:47 ◼   ► and by the way, this has been really annoying.

00:37:49 ◼   ► Like you think you don't get, you know,

00:37:51 ◼   ► as a nerd you think, oh I never make phone calls,

00:37:53 ◼   ► it isn't that big of a deal.

00:37:55 ◼   ► And then I'm like on the phone with somebody at Apple

00:37:57 ◼   ► and it drops.

00:37:58 ◼   ► And it's like, you don't want those calls to be unreliable

00:38:01 ◼   ► when they happen for an app developer.

00:38:02 ◼   ► Like you want to stay on that call.

00:38:04 ◼   ► It's really annoying when that happens,

00:38:07 ◼   ► and it makes it very hard to use this as a phone.

00:38:09 ◼   ► And I've actually had two different iPhone 7s,

00:38:12 ◼   ► because one was replaced for a bad lightning port

00:38:14 ◼   ► halfway through the year,

00:38:15 ◼   ► and they both do it to some degree,

00:38:17 ◼   ► so I know it's not just some fluke thing

00:38:18 ◼   ► with my very first one.

00:38:20 ◼   ► TIFFs did it too.

00:38:21 ◼   ► They all do it, right?

00:38:22 ◼   ► And it's just an issue of whether,

00:38:24 ◼   ► whatever network conditions cause this,

00:38:27 ◼   ► whether that affects where you are or not

00:38:28 ◼   ► is whether it's gonna happen to you or not, it seems.

00:38:30 ◼   ► But anyway, so I'm trying my hardest

00:38:32 ◼   ► to get the Qualcomm modem and the iPhone 10.

00:38:35 ◼   ► And the only way to do that is to get the Verizon

00:38:37 ◼   ► or SIM-free version in the US.

00:38:38 ◼   ► And they're not gonna probably offer

00:38:40 ◼   ► the SIM-free version for a while.

00:38:41 ◼   ► They usually, they don't, with the high-profile release,

00:38:43 ◼   ► they don't usually offer it immediately.

00:38:44 ◼   ► Usually it's a few weeks out or a couple months out even.

00:38:47 ◼   ► So I'm gonna try to get a Verizon one,

00:38:50 ◼   ► but I don't have a Verizon account,

00:38:52 ◼   ► so it's gonna be pretty much impossible for me

00:38:54 ◼   ► to actually place an order for that.

00:38:56 ◼   ► So what I'm probably gonna end up having to do

00:38:58 ◼   ► is order the AT&T when in the app

00:39:00 ◼   ► or whatever I do that night,

00:39:01 ◼   ► and then just go to the stores constantly

00:39:03 ◼   ► over the next few weeks,

00:39:04 ◼   ► 'cause there's no way it's coming on day one.

00:39:06 ◼   ► So go to the stores for the next few weeks

00:39:08 ◼   ► and I hope I can get myself a Verizon One

00:39:09 ◼   ► or a SIM-free one somehow.

00:39:11 ◼   ► And that's about it.

00:39:12 ◼   ► I too am gonna wake up at three in the morning

00:39:16 ◼   ► and I'm gonna try to place my order.

00:39:18 ◼   ► I know I'm not gonna be able to

00:39:20 ◼   ► and when I am finally able to,

00:39:21 ◼   ► probably 10 minutes into the ordering window,

00:39:24 ◼   ► the delivery dates, if I'm lucky, will be December.

00:39:28 ◼   ► If I'm more honest with myself, probably January,

00:39:31 ◼   ► or even later into 2018.

00:39:35 ◼   ► So I'm just not that optimistic about my chances

00:39:40 ◼   ► of getting it in the app.

00:39:42 ◼   ► The only reason I'm waking up at 3 a.m. at all

00:39:44 ◼   ► is that on the off chance that Apple has made more of them

00:39:49 ◼   ► than they thought they would this week or whatever,

00:39:52 ◼   ► and if you can actually place an order at 3 a.m.

00:39:55 ◼   ► and get it within a couple of weeks of launch day,

00:39:59 ◼   ► I will feel really stupid if I didn't do that.

00:40:01 ◼   ► (laughs)

00:40:02 ◼   ► If I decide to just get up at 8 a.m.

00:40:04 ◼   ► and try to place me over there and then go to the stores

00:40:06 ◼   ► and just hope for the best, I'm gonna feel really stupid.

00:40:08 ◼   ► But I am not optimistic.

00:40:10 ◼   ► I think it's gonna be a really bad scene.

00:40:13 ◼   ► I think even people who get there

00:40:15 ◼   ► in the first minute or two of the orders being open

00:40:18 ◼   ► are gonna be seeing dates in December.

00:40:20 ◼   ► - Yep.

00:40:21 ◼   ► - And it's gonna be rough.

00:40:23 ◼   ► And that's if you're lucky.

00:40:25 ◼   ► if you're lucky to get it this year.

00:40:27 ◼   ► And I really am a little worried for what this is going

00:40:32 ◼   ► to do for Apple's financials and their sales numbers

00:40:35 ◼   ► and everything for the next few quarters,

00:40:36 ◼   ► because I really don't think they're gonna sell

00:40:41 ◼   ► nearly as many of these as there's demand for,

00:40:45 ◼   ► but the people who have been waiting for this,

00:40:48 ◼   ► some portion of them will say, "All right, forget it.

00:40:50 ◼   ► "If I can't get this anytime soon,"

00:40:52 ◼   ► or if the initial reviews come out

00:40:54 ◼   ► and there's some annoyance with them

00:40:55 ◼   ► that certain people don't wanna deal with

00:40:58 ◼   ► or that won't solve their needs well enough,

00:41:01 ◼   ► there is gonna be some percentage of those people

00:41:03 ◼   ► who say, "All right, forget it, I'll get an eight plus,"

00:41:05 ◼   ► or, "I'll get an eight and that'll be it."

00:41:07 ◼   ► And so, Apple will cell phone to those people for sure.

00:41:10 ◼   ► If I had to guess, I'm guessing that Friday,

00:41:15 ◼   ► after everyone has tried to place an order

00:41:17 ◼   ► for the iPhone X and has been told it's gonna be January,

00:41:21 ◼   ► I'm guessing Friday afternoon is gonna be

00:41:25 ◼   ► probably the second biggest sales day

00:41:28 ◼   ► for the iPhone 8 Plus for its entire run.

00:41:31 ◼   ► The biggest was probably its opening day.

00:41:33 ◼   ► I bet the 8 Plus has its second biggest day on Friday

00:41:36 ◼   ► because of all those people who are gonna be discouraged

00:41:38 ◼   ► from the X, sorry, 10,

00:41:40 ◼   ► and I honestly didn't mean to do that.

00:41:43 ◼   ► They're gonna be discouraged from the 10

00:41:44 ◼   ► and they're gonna say, "All right, forget it.

00:41:45 ◼   ► "I'll get the 8 Plus," and that'll be that.

00:41:48 ◼   ► But that's gonna be some percentage of people.

00:41:51 ◼   ► I don't think it's gonna be a high percentage of people.

00:41:52 ◼   ► I think most of the people who are really holding out

00:41:55 ◼   ► for the iPhone X are not gonna settle

00:41:58 ◼   ► for the 8 Plus or the 8.

00:42:00 ◼   ► They're gonna just wait for the 10,

00:42:02 ◼   ► even if that means springtime.

00:42:04 ◼   ► And by then, they might say, you know what,

00:42:08 ◼   ► now I'm a third of the way until the next iPhone comes out,

00:42:12 ◼   ► I'll just wait 'til the X2

00:42:13 ◼   ► or whatever might come out next fall.

00:42:16 ◼   ► If the shipping delays are long enough,

00:42:18 ◼   ► they run that risk.

00:42:20 ◼   ► So this actually might be a problem.

00:42:23 ◼   ► Like Apple is taking a pretty big risk here

00:42:26 ◼   ► with the way they have launched this phone.

00:42:29 ◼   ► I'll tell you one thing,

00:42:31 ◼   ► I would not want to be Tim Cook for the next year.

00:42:34 ◼   ► That, well, I mean, I guess,

00:42:35 ◼   ► he probably has a pretty good life.

00:42:36 ◼   ► (laughing)

00:42:38 ◼   ► But like, I have a feeling he's gonna be

00:42:41 ◼   ► under a lot of scrutiny if these financials don't work out

00:42:46 ◼   ► because they can't sell enough of the iPhones

00:42:48 ◼   ► that people actually are waiting for.

00:42:49 ◼   ► going to be a problem for Tim Cook? I think it'll even out over time though because I feel like

00:42:54 ◼   ► all the reports we're seeing about inventory problems are all, none of them say it's anything

00:42:59 ◼   ► systemic. Like a year from now this should be settled, right? And so that's bad because you

00:43:04 ◼   ► got a whole year of under shipment, right? But that it evens out eventually and I think he always

00:43:08 ◼   ► takes the long view. Yes, people are going to complain to him about, "Oh, the numbers are crappy

00:43:12 ◼   ► or whatever," but that over a two-year, three-year time period, this, you know, the sales of this

00:43:18 ◼   ► phone will just be a different shape but the total numbers should be good because as you

00:43:22 ◼   ► said if they sales they lose for people who want to buy a 10 but can't get it are probably

00:43:27 ◼   ► going to go to the 8 they have good retention and they're not gonna say well if I can't

00:43:30 ◼   ► get a 10 I'm gonna try an Android phone I mean there's some of that always but I think

00:43:34 ◼   ► the bigger potential problem is not inventory which is you know it's bad it's better if

00:43:40 ◼   ► you have enough phones to sell to people that's much better right but it does even out over

00:43:43 ◼   ► the long haul if things are good, the real danger is what if the X is not that good?

00:43:48 ◼   ► What if the X does not satisfy the customers who all think they want it now?

00:43:54 ◼   ► Because that doesn't even out over time, that gets worse over time.

00:43:57 ◼   ► And that increases the chance that someone's going to go to try an Android phone or something

00:44:01 ◼   ► like that.

00:44:02 ◼   ► So I bet he's more worried.

00:44:05 ◼   ► Apple should be more worried about the X not being a good phone than they are about not

00:44:08 ◼   ► having enough of them.

00:44:09 ◼   ► They should be worried about not having enough of them, but not as much as not having a good

00:44:13 ◼   ► And from my perspective like I'm I always counsel patients on this like I'm not even getting one

00:44:17 ◼   ► It just so happens that there's this confluence of events where you know

00:44:21 ◼   ► My wife's phone is old and it's her year and it's getting slow because of iOS 11 or it could just because of upgrade a

00:44:27 ◼   ► Lot of voodoo people suggest to try to uh, you know, make it become faster including resetting a bunch of stuff

00:44:33 ◼   ► But I hate doing that because like if you reset stuff and it doesn't make it faster

00:44:36 ◼   ► Then you have to change all your settings back for you just you just cost yourself even more time and be more

00:44:42 ◼   ► Anyway, she's impatient. I'm not

00:44:44 ◼   ► Casey is always impatient obviously as he already described that he needs to have a new phone

00:44:48 ◼   ► Now now now and Marco kind of needs to have the new phone now now now as well as far as I'm concerned

00:44:54 ◼   ► I don't want yeah, I think Marco and I are probably tied for least amount of patient

00:44:59 ◼   ► But he's got he's got at least a legit reason that he can rationalize like he's got to develop an app for it and everything

00:45:04 ◼   ► Right. Hey, I do this for a living. Yeah, but

00:45:08 ◼   ► You're gonna have you're gonna have one available at work like it doesn't have to be your personal phone am I

00:45:13 ◼   ► Yeah, sure right. I mean if it's important for you for your application to be available

00:45:18 ◼   ► Yeah, but but everyone like everyone at everyone's job is under the same problem that we're like I know

00:45:23 ◼   ► Same problem right, but you have a lot more than you don't have to get a phone

00:45:27 ◼   ► Just somebody that so what I'm getting at is that I think just someone on

00:45:30 ◼   ► ATP needs to have the phone for the purposes of doing this show right, but we don't all need to have the phone

00:45:36 ◼   ► So I think it'll be fine if we just get one of them in of course it would be nice if Apple just sent us

00:45:39 ◼   ► one to review hint in to Apple people

00:45:41 ◼   ► But so far podcast still don't exist as far as they're concerned

00:45:44 ◼   ► So we wait patiently and we will try to order with the rest of the people for a loose definition of patiently

00:45:51 ◼   ► But yes

00:45:52 ◼   ► But yeah for but for regular people who are not in a hurry just wait like wait until the spring nothing will happen to you

00:45:58 ◼   ► If your phone currently works fine, and isn't like doesn't have some weird problem

00:46:01 ◼   ► It's making you want to get it

00:46:02 ◼   ► don't feel that thing that Casey feels where he just needs to have the newest greatest

00:46:05 ◼   ► phone like especially in the case of the X which might be annoying or problematic in

00:46:10 ◼   ► ways that nobody knows yet because nobody has them and it's very different than the

00:46:13 ◼   ► other phone. It's not a known quantity. There's so many things that could go wrong with it.

00:46:16 ◼   ► So and you don't want the first batch of them like there are so many reasons to just relax.

00:46:22 ◼   ► Just it's so much more relaxing to be pretend you're not listening to a tech podcast and

00:46:25 ◼   ► pretend you just wander into an Apple store in March and go "Oh look at these new iPhones."

00:46:29 ◼   ► They go buy one of these and they'll say "Would you like one?" and you'll say "Yes, I would

00:46:32 ◼   ► like one and they'll bring it from the back for you and you'll buy it like a normal person

00:46:35 ◼   ► who doesn't listen to the accidental tech podcast. It's a cool way to live.

00:46:40 ◼   ► I will also say like in in the craziness of trying to get one, if you buy one from somebody

00:46:46 ◼   ► else, don't have them ship it in the box that Apple shipped to them in. As I learned last

00:46:55 ◼   ► year in this horrible incident, oh, I still feel so bad. In this horrible incident, basically,

00:47:01 ◼   ► I think Apple tracks them pretty well

00:47:04 ◼   ► when they ship them to the original customer,

00:47:07 ◼   ► such that I don't think people at UPS

00:47:10 ◼   ► are trying to steal them or anything like that

00:47:12 ◼   ► out of the boxes that Apple ships them in.

00:47:14 ◼   ► But if you re-tape up that box

00:47:16 ◼   ► and ship it to somebody else as resale,

00:47:19 ◼   ► those happen to get stolen quite a lot,

00:47:21 ◼   ► as I learned last year.

00:47:23 ◼   ► And so don't do that.

00:47:24 ◼   ► Put it in a different box, maybe,

00:47:26 ◼   ► and maybe don't try to resell it.

00:47:29 ◼   ► If you do try to resell it, yeah, for the love of God,

00:47:31 ◼   ► put it in a different box and don't label it iPhone

00:47:34 ◼   ► or anything.

00:47:34 ◼   ► - What did you get in your box?

00:47:38 ◼   ► You didn't get like a rock or something, did you?

00:47:39 ◼   ► - No, it was just the plastic wrap from the outside

00:47:41 ◼   ► of the iPhone box.

00:47:43 ◼   ► Packing peanuts and plastic wrap.

00:47:45 ◼   ► - It's a little bit classier when they replace it

00:47:46 ◼   ► with a rock or something.

00:47:47 ◼   ► I feel like that shows the personal touch for the thieves.

00:47:49 ◼   ► - Yeah, I got a very lightweight box

00:47:52 ◼   ► that was literally stolen from the UPS supply chain

00:47:55 ◼   ► because it was stamped before,

00:47:57 ◼   ► like it had its weight stamped on its label

00:47:59 ◼   ► before it was replaced by nothing.

00:48:02 ◼   ► So that was fun.

00:48:04 ◼   ► Yeah, the other thing I would say is

00:48:06 ◼   ► if you think you might want one,

00:48:09 ◼   ► don't follow Jon's advice and be patient.

00:48:11 ◼   ► If you think there's any chance you might want one,

00:48:13 ◼   ► put an order in.

00:48:14 ◼   ► 'Cause you can cancel it with like three clicks

00:48:17 ◼   ► if you decide before it ships that you don't want it.

00:48:19 ◼   ► Just put the order in if you are at all on the fence

00:48:22 ◼   ► because then you'll at least have an option to get one

00:48:25 ◼   ► in two months when it finally ships.

00:48:28 ◼   ► Like you'll have a date that you can get one.

00:48:30 ◼   ► - But now you're tempting people to stay awake at 3 a.m.

00:48:33 ◼   ► or midnight at least.

00:48:35 ◼   ► Like you're saying, well if you're gonna order it,

00:48:36 ◼   ► you might as well order it at the beginning,

00:48:37 ◼   ► is why you're ordering anyway.

00:48:38 ◼   ► So then now you're setting your alarm

00:48:40 ◼   ► for midnight or 3 a.m.

00:48:41 ◼   ► I'm saying no, don't do it.

00:48:42 ◼   ► - That is what I'm saying.

00:48:43 ◼   ► I am actually saying like just like,

00:48:45 ◼   ► if you think there's any way you can,

00:48:47 ◼   ► if you think there's any chance you're gonna want one,

00:48:49 ◼   ► stay up till 3 a.m. or wake up at 3 a.m. and do it.

00:48:52 ◼   ► - Plus you're encouraging more competition for us,

00:48:55 ◼   ► the homeless people.

00:48:55 ◼   ► - That's the bigger problem.

00:48:57 ◼   ► - Stay up till 3.15 a.m. and order it.

00:48:59 ◼   ► - There we go.

00:49:00 ◼   ► - So you're all over 3.15.

00:49:01 ◼   ► - Yeah.

00:49:02 ◼   ► - That's the other thing I'm hoping,

00:49:03 ◼   ► considering I might actually be doing this this year,

00:49:05 ◼   ► is I'm hoping that the casuals all bought iPhone 8s, right?

00:49:10 ◼   ► Normally there's this big pent up demand for the new phone

00:49:13 ◼   ► and everyone who wants the new phone goes at once,

00:49:16 ◼   ► but now we have it tiered where it's like,

00:49:18 ◼   ► you want the new phone,

00:49:19 ◼   ► but do you want the super expensive one

00:49:21 ◼   ► or do you just want the new iPhone?

00:49:22 ◼   ► 'Cause the 8s are pretty good and it's new

00:49:24 ◼   ► and it's different enough that I think it satisfies

00:49:26 ◼   ► what people want, you know, it's like,

00:49:28 ◼   ► it's a different outside with the glass things

00:49:30 ◼   ► and the better cameras and you know,

00:49:32 ◼   ► all that other good stuff, different colors, right?

00:49:34 ◼   ► I hope those people are people

00:49:36 ◼   ► that you would have normally been competing with.

00:49:38 ◼   ► Like those people were there trying to get the sevens

00:49:40 ◼   ► or whatever, right?

00:49:41 ◼   ► But a lot of those people go out and they got the eights now

00:49:43 ◼   ► leaving, I hope, a smaller group of people for the 10.

00:49:46 ◼   ► Now, unfortunately, that smaller group of people for the 10

00:49:49 ◼   ► is probably competing for a way, way, way, way, way

00:49:51 ◼   ► smaller number of 10s that are gonna ship in 2017.

00:49:54 ◼   ► So, it's probably not good, but I do like the fact

00:49:57 ◼   ► that at least we got a little bit of help

00:49:58 ◼   ► from the people buying aids.

00:50:00 ◼   ► - Yeah, but yeah, I wouldn't count on that too much

00:50:03 ◼   ► to actually helping.

00:50:04 ◼   ► - Yeah.

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00:52:08 ◼   ► So I was wondering, this is probably our last time

00:52:15 ◼   ► to talk about the 10 or speculate about it

00:52:17 ◼   ► before this actual press review is out, I would guess.

00:52:20 ◼   ► Is there anything about,

00:52:21 ◼   ► so John, you mentioned earlier that the biggest risk

00:52:24 ◼   ► for Apple with a 10 is that it has some kind of problem

00:52:26 ◼   ► or it isn't very good or isn't very compelling after all.

00:52:30 ◼   ► What do you think the biggest risks are for it?

00:52:32 ◼   ► Like, what are the biggest ways that this might not pan out?

00:52:36 ◼   ► - So, I mean, the big ones that a lot of the presses

00:52:39 ◼   ► talk about is Face ID.

00:52:40 ◼   ► And I think that is, again, not having ever tried it

00:52:45 ◼   ► and not getting much information from the people who did.

00:52:48 ◼   ► If Face ID doesn't work well enough,

00:52:52 ◼   ► I don't know if it has to be as good as Touch ID

00:52:55 ◼   ► out of the gate, but it has to be close.

00:52:58 ◼   ► Let's put it this way, to use a bad analogy

00:53:00 ◼   ► that will make everyone sad.

00:53:01 ◼   ► If Face ID works like Siri, it will be a bad scene.

00:53:04 ◼   ► 'Cause Siri does work and you can demo it

00:53:09 ◼   ► and it does cool things, but for the unlocking your phone,

00:53:12 ◼   ► If Face ID falls below some minimum threshold of convenience, people unlock their phones

00:53:17 ◼   ► a lot.

00:53:18 ◼   ► And I think a lot of people lock their phones now.

00:53:20 ◼   ► We're not in the old days where you just slide to unlock.

00:53:22 ◼   ► People have codes on their phones, they're used to Touch ID.

00:53:25 ◼   ► Touch ID is amazing and works great.

00:53:28 ◼   ► Face ID has some minimum bar that it has to reach.

00:53:30 ◼   ► So if it doesn't reach that, that is a big problem because no one wants to get a phone

00:53:34 ◼   ► and just really be annoyed every time you have to unlock it.

00:53:38 ◼   ► And the second thing is app updates.

00:53:41 ◼   ► You have to update your app to deal with the stupid rounded corners and the home line thing

00:53:45 ◼   ► and the notch.

00:53:47 ◼   ► And obviously, and I listed them probably in the order that they're annoying.

00:53:50 ◼   ► Like you would think the notch is the problem, but having seen overcast and simulator slingshots

00:53:55 ◼   ► and everything, like it seems clear that the rounded corners are a much bigger problem

00:53:58 ◼   ► than you think if you're not, if you haven't considered how you're going to fit your app

00:54:01 ◼   ► into that, because it really does cut off a lot of things.

00:54:04 ◼   ► And so updating apps, how fast the developer is going to do it.

00:54:07 ◼   ► If you buy a new phone and face ID works great, but every app you put on it looks all weird

00:54:10 ◼   ► and janky and goes crazy in landscape, even though it's not "the phone's problem" like

00:54:15 ◼   ► "oh the phone is fine, nothing wrong with the phone" people will have a bad impression.

00:54:20 ◼   ► I waited all this time, I stay up till 3am, I spent $1200 and as a reward all my apps

00:54:27 ◼   ► look and work weird on this phone.

00:54:29 ◼   ► Those are the two that occurred to me right off the bat.

00:54:32 ◼   ► Setting aside like all the batteries exploded or some kind of hardware reliability problem

00:54:35 ◼   ► or you know, all that stuff that can happen with any phone.

00:54:37 ◼   ► But the things that are unique to the X, Face ID and app updates.

00:54:42 ◼   ► I agree with Jon.

00:54:43 ◼   ► I am super curious to see real world reviews of Face ID because I suspect it's going to

00:54:54 ◼   ► be as good as Apple promises, but I'm scared.

00:54:59 ◼   ► And I've talked to friends at Apple that have used them and they all say, "No, really, it's

00:55:06 ◼   ► amazing, but I don't know. I want to have a third party tell me what they think. And

00:55:14 ◼   ► I'm cautiously optimistic that it will be very good, and I think it's going to be pretty

00:55:21 ◼   ► darn amazing. I think the Face ID is the most obvious stumbling block that could happen,

00:55:27 ◼   ► but I think the most obvious stumbling block that will happen is what Jon said about third

00:55:31 ◼   ► third party apps, that they're just not updated

00:55:34 ◼   ► in a timely fashion or not updated well

00:55:36 ◼   ► or whatever the case may be, and I think that's the thing

00:55:39 ◼   ► that is going to be most telling.

00:55:41 ◼   ► And we'll see, whenever these reviews come out,

00:55:44 ◼   ► we'll see if the reviewers have run into a lot of that.

00:55:48 ◼   ► - Yeah, I think you guys pretty much covered

00:55:51 ◼   ► what I was gonna say too.

00:55:52 ◼   ► Like, apps I think are the biggest thing I worry about.

00:55:56 ◼   ► And not just like how many apps will be there on day one,

00:56:00 ◼   ► I think the answer to that is probably gonna be not enough.

00:56:03 ◼   ► Like, there's gonna be some, but probably not enough.

00:56:06 ◼   ► I don't even know if I,

00:56:06 ◼   ► I'm probably not gonna make day one with overcast update

00:56:09 ◼   ► because I just keep running into really annoying

00:56:12 ◼   ► UI issues that are, you know,

00:56:15 ◼   ► some of which are my fault.

00:56:17 ◼   ► Many of which are my fault from like, you know,

00:56:19 ◼   ► technical debt that I'm still repaying

00:56:21 ◼   ► and trying to get rid of over my previous UI hacks.

00:56:25 ◼   ► But some of which are just the iPhone

00:56:27 ◼   ► being harder to work with than I predicted

00:56:28 ◼   ► and the UI being harder to manage

00:56:30 ◼   ► than I predicted.

00:56:32 ◼   ► But ultimately, the biggest problem with apps is,

00:56:36 ◼   ► first it's gonna be when the apps get letterboxed.

00:56:39 ◼   ► Like I've seen a few people running simulator tricks

00:56:42 ◼   ► to kinda show like what apps look like

00:56:45 ◼   ► when they're not updated for the iPhone X,

00:56:47 ◼   ► when they're running on the iPhone X size screen,

00:56:49 ◼   ► and they just look ridiculous.

00:56:51 ◼   ► Like it's almost as if, they look almost like

00:56:54 ◼   ► when the iPad first came out and you could run iPhone apps

00:56:57 ◼   ► in that little tiny window like in the middle of the iPad,

00:57:00 ◼   ► it almost looks that ridiculous.

00:57:02 ◼   ► Like, they just run in this tiny little area in the middle

00:57:05 ◼   ► with these giant black bars that are boxing

00:57:07 ◼   ► the top and bottom of the phone.

00:57:09 ◼   ► It looks really bad.

00:57:11 ◼   ► And this is not just a simple recompile

00:57:14 ◼   ► with a bigger storyboard.

00:57:15 ◼   ► Like, this is a large undertaking for a lot of apps.

00:57:20 ◼   ► Best case scenario, even for very simply designed apps,

00:57:24 ◼   ► even apps that use very standard stuff

00:57:25 ◼   ► that make it very easy to convert,

00:57:27 ◼   ► even they typically have to spend, like,

00:57:29 ◼   ► at least a couple days on this update.

00:57:32 ◼   ► It's a significant change that a lot of things

00:57:36 ◼   ► have to do to adapt to this screen

00:57:38 ◼   ► because it's so different.

00:57:39 ◼   ► It isn't just like the same properties but bigger.

00:57:43 ◼   ► It's, you know, there's no more corners

00:57:46 ◼   ► and now the bottom is not solid

00:57:48 ◼   ► and you can't really put anything there

00:57:49 ◼   ► and you should probably take gestures away

00:57:51 ◼   ► from being near it.

00:57:52 ◼   ► And the top is giant but you can't put anything there

00:57:55 ◼   ► and you should take gestures away from it.

00:57:57 ◼   ► There's all sorts of, and when you rotate the phone,

00:58:00 ◼   ► if you happen to support landscape in your app,

00:58:02 ◼   ► you have to change something on almost every screen

00:58:05 ◼   ► of your app, and that may be difficult or not, depending.

00:58:09 ◼   ► Like if you use table views, and you use background things

00:58:12 ◼   ► in table views, chances are you have work to do.

00:58:15 ◼   ► There's so many little and big design changes

00:58:19 ◼   ► and technical changes your app now has to do.

00:58:22 ◼   ► And to give Apple credit, like the API for all the safe area

00:58:26 ◼   ► inset stuff is remarkably complete and remarkably useful

00:58:30 ◼   ► for accommodating the notch and the various insets

00:58:34 ◼   ► that the notch creates, especially in landscape mode.

00:58:37 ◼   ► Like the API is good, but we still have to use it.

00:58:39 ◼   ► We still have to do it and work on it and redesign things

00:58:42 ◼   ► and move things and test things and it's just proving

00:58:44 ◼   ► to be a ton of work for almost every developer

00:58:47 ◼   ► I've talked to about it.

00:58:49 ◼   ► So I would not expect many apps to be updated soon.

00:58:54 ◼   ► And no matter how, even if the apps you use,

00:58:58 ◼   ► for the most part, are by really on the ball developers

00:59:01 ◼   ► who are really gonna be there on day one and be ready,

00:59:04 ◼   ► you're still probably gonna use a number of apps

00:59:07 ◼   ► throughout your day to day life

00:59:09 ◼   ► that aren't gonna be updated for a while.

00:59:10 ◼   ► So you're gonna have those giant ugly black bars

00:59:12 ◼   ► on top and bottom for a long time.

00:59:14 ◼   ► Depending on what apps you use.

00:59:16 ◼   ► But you're gonna see this a lot for a while.

00:59:19 ◼   ► And it's gonna be annoying for owners of the 10

00:59:23 ◼   ► for a while.

00:59:25 ◼   ► The other thing is that I worry with the X

00:59:29 ◼   ► quite how much of iOS has been rooted in the idea

00:59:34 ◼   ► for a long time that you can always reach things

00:59:38 ◼   ► in the top bar of an app.

00:59:40 ◼   ► And to some extent the bottom bars of an app,

00:59:42 ◼   ► like button bars, toolbars, tab bars.

00:59:44 ◼   ► And with the iPhone X, it is a very different aspect ratio

00:59:50 ◼   ► than any other iPhone or iOS devices have ever been.

00:59:54 ◼   ► And it is very, very tall and skinny.

00:59:57 ◼   ► If you have trouble reaching the top and bottom

01:00:00 ◼   ► of a screen on an iPhone Plus,

01:00:03 ◼   ► you're definitely gonna have problems

01:00:05 ◼   ► reaching the top and bottom of the screen on the iPhone X.

01:00:08 ◼   ► And so much of iOS has been built on the assumption

01:00:12 ◼   ► that you can put pretty frequently used buttons and things

01:00:15 ◼   ► in bars on the top and bottom of the interface,

01:00:19 ◼   ► that even when you account for the insets from the notch

01:00:22 ◼   ► and from the home indicator area on the bottom,

01:00:24 ◼   ► things are still gonna be really hard to reach

01:00:27 ◼   ► for a lot of people.

01:00:29 ◼   ► And apps will eventually change from this.

01:00:32 ◼   ► Like the Plus phones encourage apps to change

01:00:35 ◼   ► to some degree from this, but it wasn't quite as bad

01:00:38 ◼   ► and you could still say, well,

01:00:40 ◼   ► if you have really big hands, you're buying the Plus

01:00:42 ◼   ► or if you don't mind using two hands, you're buying the Plus

01:00:43 ◼   ► but oh well, that's just because you're buying the Plus,

01:00:46 ◼   ► you can deal with it.

01:00:47 ◼   ► But now, this is going to be the mainstream power user phone

01:00:52 ◼   ► and also the Plus kind of already has been becoming that,

01:00:54 ◼   ► honestly, for about the last year, year and a half or so.

01:00:57 ◼   ► So apps have to totally rethink their interaction models

01:01:02 ◼   ► to try to minimize requiring use of the top and bottom

01:01:07 ◼   ► of the screen because those are gonna be way harder to reach

01:01:10 ◼   ► for way more people now than they were before.

01:01:13 ◼   ► The OS in general is gonna have to do that also.

01:01:16 ◼   ► iOS is going to have to change a lot of its own standards

01:01:19 ◼   ► and a lot of its own app designs to better accommodate this.

01:01:24 ◼   ► And that's all gonna take time, it's gonna take years.

01:01:27 ◼   ► So I think the overall bullet point here

01:01:31 ◼   ► of risks to the iPhone X's reception

01:01:34 ◼   ► and to the quality of using one for the next little while,

01:01:37 ◼   ► the overall heading there is apps.

01:01:40 ◼   ► But that's way bigger and potentially way longer

01:01:43 ◼   ► to get right.

01:01:44 ◼   ► you might find it really annoying to use apps on it

01:01:47 ◼   ► until things are better designed for it.

01:01:49 ◼   ► So that's a pretty big sticking point.

01:01:52 ◼   ► The only other thing I would think of is battery life.

01:01:54 ◼   ► The battery life is a giant question mark

01:01:56 ◼   ► because we've never had an OLED iPhone.

01:02:00 ◼   ► - But what, I've seen, you're the second person I've seen

01:02:02 ◼   ► worry about battery life, but I didn't list that on things

01:02:06 ◼   ► 'cause this is the phone that they said

01:02:07 ◼   ► has two hours more battery life.

01:02:08 ◼   ► So even if they're off, it still has better battery life

01:02:11 ◼   ► than the 7, right?

01:02:12 ◼   ► What are you worried about?

01:02:13 ◼   ► You think it's gonna be worse than a 7?

01:02:14 ◼   ► - Well, the way they measure battery life is useless

01:02:16 ◼   ► for real world use.

01:02:17 ◼   ► It always has been.

01:02:19 ◼   ► Whatever measure they use for battery life

01:02:21 ◼   ► does not reflect the way anyone I know uses their phones.

01:02:23 ◼   ► - But proportionally, they said the seven was better

01:02:25 ◼   ► than the six and it was, right?

01:02:27 ◼   ► - It was, yes.

01:02:28 ◼   ► But the battery also got bigger,

01:02:31 ◼   ► and so it was basically roughly the same type of components

01:02:33 ◼   ► that we've always known, but bigger, right?

01:02:35 ◼   ► And so it kind of made sense that that happened.

01:02:38 ◼   ► It wasn't a big surprise.

01:02:39 ◼   ► But it depends on how they're measuring it.

01:02:40 ◼   ► Like if they're measuring by talk time tests,

01:02:43 ◼   ► a web browsing loop, things like that,

01:02:45 ◼   ► they optimize for that.

01:02:46 ◼   ► And they can design the phone to be really responsible

01:02:49 ◼   ► in what they consider those typical uses.

01:02:51 ◼   ► But then if you do something on your phone

01:02:54 ◼   ► that is not typical use, so for instance,

01:02:56 ◼   ► that crazy new processor with the six cores

01:02:59 ◼   ► that can now all be on at the same time if they want to,

01:03:02 ◼   ► if you're doing something that's processor intensive,

01:03:04 ◼   ► that's probably a pretty high power usage ceiling

01:03:07 ◼   ► that the processor can have.

01:03:08 ◼   ► And while they're doing whatever they're doing

01:03:10 ◼   ► with their battery tests,

01:03:11 ◼   ► they might be not sending it that way

01:03:13 ◼   ► or not using the processor in that way,

01:03:15 ◼   ► but if you do something that uses it that way,

01:03:17 ◼   ► you're gonna have very different results.

01:03:19 ◼   ► Similarly, their tests probably have,

01:03:21 ◼   ► they probably don't use GPS,

01:03:22 ◼   ► they probably don't use heavy cellular data

01:03:25 ◼   ► or roaming or anything else.

01:03:26 ◼   ► There's all sorts of things that can be different there.

01:03:28 ◼   ► And also just the nature of how users from an OLED screen,

01:03:32 ◼   ► where now the screen can,

01:03:34 ◼   ► not only does the screen use probably less power overall

01:03:37 ◼   ► when it's on, the screen uses a varying amount of power

01:03:41 ◼   ► based on how brightly the pixels are lit up.

01:03:43 ◼   ► So if you have black pixels that are effectively off

01:03:46 ◼   ► with an OLED, that's gonna use less power

01:03:49 ◼   ► than if you have white pixels that are lit up all the way.

01:03:52 ◼   ► That's different from the way LCDs have always worked.

01:03:55 ◼   ► So the way the iPhone X will use its battery

01:03:59 ◼   ► and the variation that you will have,

01:04:01 ◼   ► we don't really know the answer to that yet.

01:04:04 ◼   ► We're not gonna know that until we have a few months

01:04:06 ◼   ► of using this to really get a feel

01:04:07 ◼   ► for how that battery behaves.

01:04:10 ◼   ► And the way Apple quotes the battery time,

01:04:12 ◼   ► I think is almost meaningless for how that will work

01:04:15 ◼   ► in practice because these are all new components

01:04:17 ◼   ► with all new profiles of how they use power

01:04:21 ◼   ► that I don't think we can really say for sure

01:04:22 ◼   ► how it's gonna work.

01:04:23 ◼   ► - I don't think it's meaningless and I think the OLED screen,

01:04:26 ◼   ► even if it was 100% white all the time,

01:04:28 ◼   ► would tie or beat an LCD.

01:04:30 ◼   ► Like that's the point of OLED.

01:04:32 ◼   ► That's why it's on the watch.

01:04:33 ◼   ► It's lower power even if the stuff's turned on.

01:04:35 ◼   ► That's my impression anyway.

01:04:36 ◼   ► So like I said, I'm not worried about battery life.

01:04:38 ◼   ► I mean, if the batteries explode, that's a problem,

01:04:39 ◼   ► But battery life wise, even if it doesn't meet the extra two hours, I feel like it will

01:04:43 ◼   ► be better than the 7.

01:04:44 ◼   ► And as long as it's better than the 7, people will like it.

01:04:47 ◼   ► Because you know, it's like the fact that you're replacing your phone with a battery

01:04:49 ◼   ► that's gone through several charge cycles, so it's already kind of crappy, with a new

01:04:53 ◼   ► battery and the new battery gets more battery life, I think it'll be fine.

01:04:57 ◼   ► I'm optimistic about battery life.

01:04:59 ◼   ► To go back a step to what Marco was saying, part of the thing that worries me about app

01:05:04 ◼   ► support is that if nobody can get their hands on one of these in the first place, like if

01:05:08 ◼   ► No developers can get their hands on one of these.

01:05:10 ◼   ► It's only going to exacerbate this problem.

01:05:11 ◼   ► So it's a two-pronged issue.

01:05:14 ◼   ► One of them is that almost every iOS app, like Marco was

01:05:18 ◼   ► saying, is designed for top-based navigation.

01:05:20 ◼   ► Your back buttons are at the top.

01:05:22 ◼   ► Your create a new thing, like a new message in messages or

01:05:25 ◼   ► whatever, is typically at the top.

01:05:27 ◼   ► All of that might need to shimmy down, which is, in many

01:05:31 ◼   ► cases, a really, really deep and wide update.

01:05:36 ◼   ► That's rethinking your entire app's architecture.

01:05:38 ◼   ► And on top of that, if you don't have a real test device for months, I mean, we were just

01:05:44 ◼   ► saying we're planning on waking up at three in the morning, and we don't think that we'll

01:05:49 ◼   ► necessarily get our phones until 2018.

01:05:52 ◼   ► Like, that's going to be a big darn problem.

01:05:55 ◼   ► I'm optimistic.

01:05:57 ◼   ► I hope that it'll work out just fine.

01:05:58 ◼   ► I hope that I'll get my iPhone a week from Friday.

01:06:01 ◼   ► But you never—like, I feel like we're raining on everyone's parade, and I don't think that's

01:06:07 ◼   ► anyone's intention. We're hopeful that it will work out for the best. It's just, there's

01:06:12 ◼   ► a lot of signs. You know, the Magic 8-Ball saying this is going to be an interesting

01:06:15 ◼   ► roll out and it's going to be an interesting first few months with it. But let me tell

01:06:19 ◼   ► you, I'm still super amped in March of 2018 when I finally get my phone. I'm super amped

01:06:26 ◼   ► to unlock it with just my face. Like, I'm excited.

01:06:28 ◼   ► Yeah, and the other thing about your developer thing too is like, keep in mind, like exacerbating

01:06:34 ◼   ► the apps problem is that developers won't have these phones

01:06:37 ◼   ► for a while, as you said, which means there's immense

01:06:40 ◼   ► pressure on us from users and from Apple to update our apps

01:06:44 ◼   ► for the iPhone 10 like yesterday, like to have this,

01:06:47 ◼   ► needs to be done now, now, now.

01:06:49 ◼   ► This is immense pressure on us to update our apps

01:06:51 ◼   ► for a phone that will probably handle pretty differently

01:06:55 ◼   ► than anything that we have used before that deserves

01:07:00 ◼   ► significant redesign consideration

01:07:03 ◼   ► that we have to design for without ever holding it.

01:07:06 ◼   ► And sure, we can change it later,

01:07:08 ◼   ► but the initial batch of updates for the iPhone X

01:07:12 ◼   ► might not be good.

01:07:14 ◼   ► I would say it's gonna be really hit or miss

01:07:16 ◼   ► because almost all of them will have been designed

01:07:19 ◼   ► and developed without the designer and developer

01:07:22 ◼   ► having access to one.

01:07:24 ◼   ► So it's all gonna be just,

01:07:25 ◼   ► it's gonna be like the very first wave of iPad

01:07:27 ◼   ► and Apple Watch designs when those came out,

01:07:29 ◼   ► which was like really hit or miss because they were mostly developed in the simulator.

01:07:35 ◼   ► So somebody put out numbers, the Nikkei reporters, what is that, a newspaper website? I don't

01:07:42 ◼   ► even know. But anyway, this is their speculation, obviously not from Apple, but they're saying

01:07:46 ◼   ► 20 million iPhones between now and the end of the year. And you're like, "Oh, that

01:07:50 ◼   ► sounds like it's a lot, right?" But last year, between October and December, Apple

01:07:55 ◼   ► shipped almost 80 million so that's a factor of four if these if this guess estimate from

01:08:00 ◼   ► you know these third party people with knowledge of the supply chain blah blah blah is right

01:08:04 ◼   ► they're not like we're saying there's going to be 20 fewer phones last year whatever

01:08:08 ◼   ► four times fewer and again maybe the eight buyers are going to help with that but i'm not sure

01:08:13 ◼   ► they're going to help forex so i really hope i really hope these numbers aren't right because

01:08:17 ◼   ► that is really grim um yeah i hear is that you know the graph of like how bad is it going to be

01:08:24 ◼   ► in terms of pre-order times. I also hope that the number of people who are awake at 3 a.m. exactly

01:08:32 ◼   ► hammering on their phones to try to order another phone is itself smaller still. Like that you're

01:08:39 ◼   ► what you're really getting to are the the people like this is the type of thing where I like where

01:08:42 ◼   ► the people who are willing to do the ridiculous thing to lose sleep to set their alarm for

01:08:48 ◼   ► 255 to do all this stuff that there are there's a small number of them the numbers get bigger the

01:08:55 ◼   ► people who want to order the next morning and then bigger still for the people to the next day and so

01:08:59 ◼   ► on and so forth so it can be you know if you if you want the best chance to get it as soon as

01:09:05 ◼   ► possible then just do what we do and as many people pointed out and who have gone through

01:09:08 ◼   ► this before very often the barrier is not your cdn updating in marco's case where he doesn't

01:09:14 ◼   ► doesn't even get to see the phone on his app until it's too late or Apple store crapping

01:09:18 ◼   ► out which happens but at various points during the purchase process depending on what you

01:09:22 ◼   ► buy it may need to contact your carrier servers and the carriers suck in the US so that's

01:09:30 ◼   ► where your entire order process goes off the rails because their servers are unresponsive

01:09:34 ◼   ► and while you're trying to get through that phase where it has to contact Verizon or whatever

01:09:37 ◼   ► all the phones have been ordered and by the time you get through that now your you know

01:09:41 ◼   ► your ship date is February 21st and what can you do?

01:09:45 ◼   ► So one of the strategies people suggested

01:09:46 ◼   ► is buy the one without a SIM,

01:09:48 ◼   ► so you never have to contact the carrier,

01:09:50 ◼   ► but I don't know what chipset, to Marco's point,

01:09:53 ◼   ► that thing is gonna use.

01:09:54 ◼   ► - That does get around it.

01:09:55 ◼   ► The problem is it's exactly what people wanna do

01:09:57 ◼   ► when they're scalping them.

01:09:59 ◼   ► So Apple does not usually make the SIM-free version

01:10:01 ◼   ► available for a high-demand phone on day one.

01:10:04 ◼   ► They usually wait a few weeks or months

01:10:06 ◼   ► and then they make it available.

01:10:07 ◼   ► - But then the people go to the T-Mobile one,

01:10:09 ◼   ► You go, T-Mobile always doesn't contact their site,

01:10:11 ◼   ► but then you get a different chip set

01:10:12 ◼   ► that loses different radio bands.

01:10:14 ◼   ► And it's just, it's all very fraught and confusing.

01:10:17 ◼   ► You know, I don't know, I've never done this before,

01:10:20 ◼   ► so I can't say, but I'm not optimistic.

01:10:23 ◼   ► - Yeah, I have a feeling that because what I'm trying to do

01:10:27 ◼   ► is exactly what scalpers try to do,

01:10:29 ◼   ► I'm probably gonna have to just go to the stores a lot

01:10:32 ◼   ► and just try to get lucky that way.

01:10:34 ◼   ► - Yeah, you're using the senior citizen advantage,

01:10:38 ◼   ► which is like, I'm home during the day, suckers.

01:10:40 ◼   ► (laughing)

01:10:40 ◼   ► I'm gonna wander into the Apple store

01:10:42 ◼   ► while you're all at work,

01:10:43 ◼   ► and I can just come there every day and go,

01:10:44 ◼   ► hey, how you doing, it's me again, any handy phones?

01:10:47 ◼   ► - Well, the good thing is,

01:10:48 ◼   ► I'm now getting allergy shots twice a week

01:10:50 ◼   ► at a building next door to an Apple store.

01:10:53 ◼   ► - Twice a week, what are you curing yourself of allergies for?

01:10:56 ◼   ► - Allergies.

01:10:58 ◼   ► - Yeah, your allergies for what?

01:10:59 ◼   ► - Everything.

01:11:00 ◼   ► - Pollen, everything?

01:11:01 ◼   ► Dogs? - Pollen, ragweed,

01:11:02 ◼   ► not dogs, fortunately, but cats, bugs, rabbits,

01:11:07 ◼   ► mostly the pollen and the ragweed,

01:11:08 ◼   ► which makes pretty bad seasonal allergies.

01:11:10 ◼   ► But no, fortunately I have a hypoallergenic dog

01:11:13 ◼   ► and he's wonderful and I could put my face in him

01:11:14 ◼   ► and have no problems.

01:11:15 ◼   ► But if he was a rabbit, I would have problems

01:11:18 ◼   ► 'cause rabbits are kind of like cats,

01:11:19 ◼   ► but they're constantly moving,

01:11:20 ◼   ► so they have a cloud of allergies around them constantly.

01:11:23 ◼   ► It's awful.

01:11:24 ◼   ► Yeah, so if I just show up early to an allergy shot

01:11:27 ◼   ► like twice a week, I can get to an Apple store

01:11:29 ◼   ► at like eight in the morning maybe, nine in the morning,

01:11:31 ◼   ► and you know, I'll see.

01:11:32 ◼   ► I'm sure it's not gonna work during the first week or two,

01:11:35 ◼   ► but maybe during week three.

01:11:36 ◼   ► You know, that's probably gonna work before my 3 a.m. order will be delivered.

01:11:41 ◼   ► Yeah, isn't that how I got my iPhone 7?

01:11:44 ◼   ► I seem to recall it was an in-person wander by thing.

01:11:48 ◼   ► I wasn't in a SuperHer either, but it was the same deal.

01:11:50 ◼   ► Jet blacks were hard to get.

01:11:51 ◼   ► I didn't even bother trying to get it early on.

01:11:54 ◼   ► And I think I did a lot of, you know, "Oh, we're in the mall.

01:11:56 ◼   ► Stop by the Apple Store and see what they've got."

01:11:58 ◼   ► I don't remember if that's where I bought it or not, but that is a very good...

01:12:01 ◼   ► Apple Stores do get shipments in, like, I don't know, weekly, daily.

01:12:04 ◼   ► Whenever they get them.

01:12:05 ◼   ► Daily, usually.

01:12:06 ◼   ► they get a small number, but if you happen to be the person who wandered into the store

01:12:11 ◼   ► when that small number appears, you are like in a mini line that only consists of the people

01:12:15 ◼   ► who happen to be in the Apple store the moment the shipment comes in. And that line is way

01:12:19 ◼   ► shorter than the line we're all going to be in at 3 a.m. trying to get in a big giant

01:12:23 ◼   ► queue with the entire world to get a phone shipped to us in February.

01:12:28 ◼   ► So it'll be -- it's not going to be fun. It will be fun, but no, it's not going to be

01:12:32 ◼   ► It's gonna be fun, it's gonna be a slog,

01:12:34 ◼   ► but we will eventually get this phone.

01:12:36 ◼   ► And you know what, all of my concerns aside,

01:12:39 ◼   ► ultimately I am very excited to get this phone.

01:12:41 ◼   ► That's why we're all waiting for it,

01:12:43 ◼   ► because if it's good, which Apple,

01:12:48 ◼   ► for all their problems with Macs recently,

01:12:51 ◼   ► their record with iPhones is pretty solid.

01:12:53 ◼   ► Like they usually don't have major issues.

01:12:55 ◼   ► Sometimes they have minor issues.

01:12:56 ◼   ► They don't usually have major issues.

01:12:58 ◼   ► The likelihood that this is gonna be as described

01:13:02 ◼   ► and gonna be good is pretty high.

01:13:05 ◼   ► And if that's true, this is gonna be great

01:13:08 ◼   ► because it'll finally be like the nice middle ground

01:13:10 ◼   ► between the iPhone 7 and the iPhone Plus

01:13:14 ◼   ► that we've been waiting for for so long.

01:13:17 ◼   ► And to have like the best cameras in the quote,

01:13:21 ◼   ► medium-sized phone, even though it's not quite,

01:13:24 ◼   ► but to have that would be great,

01:13:26 ◼   ► to have a bigger screen and a smaller body will be great.

01:13:29 ◼   ► There are a lot of asterisks on this,

01:13:30 ◼   ► a lot of things we're having to give up to get this,

01:13:34 ◼   ► but if it works out, it's gonna be awesome.

01:13:38 ◼   ► So I am, I'm tentatively optimistic.

01:13:42 ◼   ► I think it's probably gonna end up being great.

01:13:44 ◼   ► We're probably gonna look back on all these worries

01:13:46 ◼   ► and laugh at how ridiculous they were,

01:13:48 ◼   ► and I hope it turns out that way.

01:13:50 ◼   ► - I hope so, but I think what's gonna end up happening

01:13:54 ◼   ► is I'll get my phone in December or January

01:13:57 ◼   ► and you will get yours in about a week

01:13:59 ◼   ► by going to the store every single day.

01:14:02 ◼   ► - Yeah. - That's my wager.

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01:16:01 ◼   ► (upbeat music)

01:16:04 ◼   ► - So, speaking of things that are,

01:16:08 ◼   ► that are positive, eh, maybe,

01:16:12 ◼   ► apparently the Mac Mini's still a thing.

01:16:14 ◼   ► - Uh. - Kinda, maybe.

01:16:17 ◼   ► - Here's the thing.

01:16:17 ◼   ► So, do you have the Tim Cook statement handy?

01:16:20 ◼   ► - Yeah, 22/7. - Doesn't matter,

01:16:22 ◼   ► we all know what he said.

01:16:23 ◼   ► - Can you read the statement, just for the record?

01:16:26 ◼   ► - I'm glad you love Mac Mini.

01:16:28 ◼   ► Why is it never the Mac Mini?

01:16:30 ◼   ► - That's a Steve Caray over, I think.

01:16:31 ◼   ► - I know, it just drives me bad.

01:16:33 ◼   ► - And for context listeners, this was a neat,

01:16:34 ◼   ► so somebody emailed Tim Cook asking about the future

01:16:38 ◼   ► of the Mac Mini and got this response that allegedly,

01:16:40 ◼   ► and then it was posted to Mac commercial.

01:16:42 ◼   ► So, what was that?

01:16:43 ◼   ► Go on, sorry.

01:16:44 ◼   ► - So, I'm glad you love Mac Mini.

01:16:46 ◼   ► We love it too.

01:16:47 ◼   ► Our customers have found so many creative

01:16:49 ◼   ► and interesting uses for Mac Mini.

01:16:51 ◼   ► While it is not the time to share any details,

01:16:54 ◼   ► we do plan for Mac Mini to be an important part

01:16:56 ◼   ► of our product line going forward.

01:16:59 ◼   ► Best, Tim.

01:17:00 ◼   ► - Yeah, so all the websites took this to mean

01:17:05 ◼   ► Tim Cook confirms that Mac Mini's not dead,

01:17:07 ◼   ► that they're working on a new one.

01:17:10 ◼   ► When I read this, I was less optimistic,

01:17:13 ◼   ► or at least I found this to be relatively content-free.

01:17:17 ◼   ► Almost all of the words that Tim wrote back allegedly

01:17:20 ◼   ► don't mean anything, our non-committal PR CEO speak BS,

01:17:24 ◼   ► and the few words that mean something were so vague

01:17:31 ◼   ► and so non-committal that what he could mean is,

01:17:35 ◼   ► we're just gonna keep selling it like it is now.

01:17:40 ◼   ► Like, that's all he really said.

01:17:43 ◼   ► It's still a thing in the line.

01:17:46 ◼   ► Like, when they gave that wonderful statement

01:17:49 ◼   ► the Mac Pro Roundtable last spring,

01:17:51 ◼   ► where it was something on the lines of,

01:17:52 ◼   ► "That Mac Mini remains a product in our lineup."

01:17:54 ◼   ► It was one of the best things I've ever said.

01:17:56 ◼   ► (laughs)

01:17:57 ◼   ► Like, this is about the same.

01:18:00 ◼   ► I don't think this is saying anything about future updates.

01:18:05 ◼   ► - I think you're bending yourself into pretzels

01:18:07 ◼   ► to try to make it seem like the same.

01:18:09 ◼   ► It's not the same.

01:18:10 ◼   ► They said, "Not time to share any details."

01:18:13 ◼   ► If it was gonna be the same, there's no details to share.

01:18:16 ◼   ► Not that there's much information in it,

01:18:17 ◼   ► but the one piece of information is an official confirmation

01:18:20 ◼   ► from the CEO of Apple that they plan to share some details

01:18:25 ◼   ► related to the Mac Mini in the future,

01:18:28 ◼   ► which means, as far as I'm concerned,

01:18:30 ◼   ► if this was the Mac Pro, what we'd be saying is,

01:18:32 ◼   ► this is confirmation the Mac Pro is not dead.

01:18:34 ◼   ► He might as well have said,

01:18:36 ◼   ► we're gonna come out with a new thing

01:18:40 ◼   ► that people who like the Mac Mini will like.

01:18:42 ◼   ► He didn't even say it was gonna be a new Mac Mini.

01:18:43 ◼   ► Who knows what it could be?

01:18:44 ◼   ► And I think we would wanna discuss that.

01:18:45 ◼   ► But the whole point is that like,

01:18:47 ◼   ► that they, there's not like,

01:18:49 ◼   ► they're just not gonna fade away.

01:18:50 ◼   ► We're not making the Mac Mini anymore.

01:18:52 ◼   ► So we're gonna sell this one

01:18:53 ◼   ► until it becomes really embarrassing,

01:18:55 ◼   ► and then we'll stop,

01:18:56 ◼   ► like they were planning on doing with the Mac Pro.

01:18:57 ◼   ► Sell it until it becomes embarrassing,

01:18:59 ◼   ► and then just let it fade away,

01:19:00 ◼   ► and replace it with the iMac Pro or whatever.

01:19:02 ◼   ► That was the plan for the Mac Pro until they turned around.

01:19:04 ◼   ► This email does not have much content,

01:19:07 ◼   ► but the one bit of information it has is,

01:19:09 ◼   ► does the Mac Mini have a future yes/no answer?

01:19:12 ◼   ► Yes-ish.

01:19:14 ◼   ► Like, again, they don't say it's going to be a Mac Mini,

01:19:16 ◼   ► but the person was asking about the Mac Mini,

01:19:19 ◼   ► and his answer is, just wait, we'll have something.

01:19:23 ◼   ► And so I think at least Tim believes

01:19:25 ◼   ► that the person who likes the Mac Mini

01:19:28 ◼   ► will be interested in this future thing.

01:19:29 ◼   ► So it's gotta be something Mac Mini-ish.

01:19:33 ◼   ► And that's not a lot of information.

01:19:34 ◼   ► Like, what do you expect?

01:19:35 ◼   ► Like, it's not gonna tell you a date,

01:19:36 ◼   ► and yes, we're gonna have the Mac Mini,

01:19:38 ◼   ► or yes, we're gonna replace it, like whatever.

01:19:40 ◼   ► But it's more than we had before.

01:19:42 ◼   ► It's from the horse's mouth.

01:19:44 ◼   ► And so I take that, if I was a big fan of the Mac Mini,

01:19:46 ◼   ► I would be excited now to know that that computer line

01:19:49 ◼   ► is not 100% dead.

01:19:52 ◼   ► - There's two parts of Tim's wording here

01:19:54 ◼   ► that actually mean anything at all.

01:19:56 ◼   ► Wow does not time to share any details.

01:19:58 ◼   ► This implies there will be a time in the future

01:20:01 ◼   ► where something is shared.

01:20:02 ◼   ► - So not a time in the past,

01:20:04 ◼   ► space doesn't have a time machine.

01:20:05 ◼   ► It will have to be a time in the future

01:20:06 ◼   ► and he will share details.

01:20:07 ◼   ► Details about what?

01:20:08 ◼   ► It's details that this person who sent his email

01:20:10 ◼   ► apparently would be interested in.

01:20:11 ◼   ► This person wants a Mac Mini.

01:20:12 ◼   ► - Right, so what that clause means is

01:20:15 ◼   ► there may come a time in the future

01:20:18 ◼   ► where there's something to share.

01:20:20 ◼   ► The only other part of this that says anything is important.

01:20:25 ◼   ► We do plan for the Mac Mini to be an important part

01:20:28 ◼   ► of our product line going forward,

01:20:29 ◼   ► but the problem with that, when a CEO says important,

01:20:33 ◼   ► it's like your call is important to us.

01:20:36 ◼   ► Like that is complete BS, they do not mean it,

01:20:39 ◼   ► they're saying that to please you,

01:20:41 ◼   ► That doesn't mean anything.

01:20:42 ◼   ► When you remove the BS speak from this,

01:20:46 ◼   ► all it really says is, we plan for the Mac Mini

01:20:49 ◼   ► to be part of our product line in the future, going forward.

01:20:52 ◼   ► Like, that's it, that's all it says.

01:20:53 ◼   ► - Yeah, but like I said, don't have anything to share

01:20:55 ◼   ► right now, we will have something to share later.

01:20:57 ◼   ► And if the product doesn't change, there's nothing to share.

01:20:59 ◼   ► If there's something to share, that means there's news.

01:21:01 ◼   ► That means there's news that Mac Mini owners want

01:21:03 ◼   ► and the obvious news is there's gonna be a new Mac Mini.

01:21:06 ◼   ► - Well, so basically I think part one of my skepticism

01:21:11 ◼   ► on this is I don't think this email says anything real.

01:21:15 ◼   ► I think this is 100% fluff and nothing,

01:21:19 ◼   ► there's no meat to it.

01:21:20 ◼   ► - I completely agree.

01:21:21 ◼   ► - But it's not 100%, it's 1% a promise

01:21:25 ◼   ► that the Mac Mini is not dead as a line of computers.

01:21:27 ◼   ► - Yeah, but if you're Tim Cook,

01:21:28 ◼   ► you're not gonna make that declaration

01:21:30 ◼   ► in an email to some rando, you're gonna make it--

01:21:32 ◼   ► - Yeah, sure you will.

01:21:33 ◼   ► - Oh, come on. - I think that is

01:21:34 ◼   ► the minimum amount that you can,

01:21:36 ◼   ► because there's nothing else he can say,

01:21:39 ◼   ► He can't just say what Phil said, which is "It remains a product in our lineup."

01:21:42 ◼   ► Because that will be taken, like if you're answering at all, if you answer with that,

01:21:45 ◼   ► that's taken as a confirmation that it's dead.

01:21:47 ◼   ► Because if he can't bring himself to say, "Patented Tim Cook, just stay tuned, we're

01:21:52 ◼   ► really excited about blah blah blah future blah blah blah, nothing to share today," like

01:21:55 ◼   ► he does that all the time, that's his little shtick.

01:21:58 ◼   ► If he can't bring himself to say that, and he actually replies and says "It remains a

01:22:02 ◼   ► product in our lineup," that means it's dead.

01:22:04 ◼   ► So he has to either not reply, which would be the smart thing to do, or reply and say,

01:22:10 ◼   ► "No, it's not dead.

01:22:11 ◼   ► We're going to do a thing."

01:22:13 ◼   ► And he gives his little answer about nothing to share today.

01:22:17 ◼   ► That means there'll be something to share.

01:22:19 ◼   ► And that is, you could say 90% BS and 90% content free, but that one little nugget,

01:22:24 ◼   ► like I said, if I was a big Mac mini fan, that would make me very excited because I

01:22:27 ◼   ► feel like it is unambiguous.

01:22:28 ◼   ► Unambiguous that Tim Cook thinks, in the same way, by the way, that they would have said,

01:22:33 ◼   ► We have Mac Pro users, we have something you'll be excited about, and they meant the iMac Pro.

01:22:37 ◼   ► And so you can still be disappointed, but like, "Oh, I was hoping they would keep the

01:22:40 ◼   ► Mac Pro, but it turns out the thing they thought we would be excited about is the iMac Pro."

01:22:44 ◼   ► And we would kind of be excited about it, but it would still be not as good as a real

01:22:47 ◼   ► Mac Pro.

01:22:48 ◼   ► Right, so there's still room for Mac Mini owners to be disappointed, but that's their lot in

01:22:52 ◼   ► life, right?

01:22:53 ◼   ► Isn't that what they're there for?

01:22:54 ◼   ► Yeah, it's always been a disappointing product in some way.

01:22:57 ◼   ► But okay, so anyway, I think it's not that bad.

01:23:01 ◼   ► Part one of my disappointment with this was Tim's fluffy language. When Tim says things

01:23:06 ◼   ► or does interviews I don't even watch them or care because there's so little content.

01:23:10 ◼   ► He's so guarded, he's so careful that you see no personality, you get no real ideas

01:23:15 ◼   ► of anything. Anyway, so I wouldn't put anything into his words. The other thing to worry about

01:23:21 ◼   ► is do we want today's Apple redesigning the Mac Mini? Because when they last did it in

01:23:30 ◼   ► In 2014, they basically took the 2012 model

01:23:35 ◼   ► and made it worse.

01:23:37 ◼   ► What would they do if today's Apple redesigned the Mac Mini?

01:23:40 ◼   ► 'Cause what everyone wants is one thing.

01:23:43 ◼   ► What everyone wants is, yeah, maybe bring back

01:23:45 ◼   ► the quad core option that it used to have,

01:23:47 ◼   ► maybe bring back the user replaceable,

01:23:50 ◼   ► upgradeable hard drive and socketed RAM,

01:23:52 ◼   ► like things like that would be great

01:23:54 ◼   ► because this is a machine that appeals to low end

01:23:58 ◼   ► and budget conscious buyers more than their other machines.

01:24:01 ◼   ► So that matters, the upgradeability and repairability

01:24:04 ◼   ► over time, that matters more on this machine

01:24:06 ◼   ► than on probably any of their other machines

01:24:09 ◼   ► and they made it worse substantially in the 2012 update.

01:24:13 ◼   ► So when people say we want an updated Mac Mini,

01:24:17 ◼   ► I think number one, what they want is upgraded components,

01:24:19 ◼   ► that would be nice to have modern processors and everything

01:24:21 ◼   ► but I think they're also thinking of some kind of redesign

01:24:24 ◼   ► and everyone has their idea of what they want it to be.

01:24:27 ◼   ► Mac Mini users, use them as their primary computers,

01:24:29 ◼   ► generally want upgradability.

01:24:32 ◼   ► Apple commentators, there was a great segment

01:24:35 ◼   ► on upgrade this week, where Jason Stiller

01:24:37 ◼   ► argues that it should be more like the Intel NUC,

01:24:39 ◼   ► the N-U-C, however that's pronounced,

01:24:40 ◼   ► where it's like the size of an Apple TV.

01:24:42 ◼   ► So it's like, take the Mac Mini and make it even smaller,

01:24:44 ◼   ► make it have even less components and upgradability inside,

01:24:48 ◼   ► even fewer ports, things like that.

01:24:51 ◼   ► I honestly don't think Mac Mini owners are looking for that.

01:24:54 ◼   ► But I think if Apple did redesign the Mac Mini today,

01:24:56 ◼   ► it would be more like that.

01:24:58 ◼   ► It would be like, let's make it even smaller,

01:25:00 ◼   ► let's give it all USB-C ports,

01:25:02 ◼   ► like take away all the usefulness of it,

01:25:04 ◼   ► keep the same high price,

01:25:05 ◼   ► maybe even increase the price with today's Apple,

01:25:07 ◼   ► and now you have less upgradeability than even before

01:25:10 ◼   ► in the 2014 revision.

01:25:13 ◼   ► Like, do you think today's Apple would actually

01:25:16 ◼   ► issue an update to the Mac Mini

01:25:18 ◼   ► that Mac Mini buyers would be happy with?

01:25:20 ◼   ► I think it's very unlikely.

01:25:22 ◼   ► - I think you're kind of dancing around this article

01:25:24 ◼   ► that you haven't read in the show notes,

01:25:25 ◼   ► which is by Ricardo Mori, who offers three-- he categorizes three possibilities for the

01:25:32 ◼   ► future of the Mac Mini or things that the Mac Mini people might like.

01:25:36 ◼   ► And you already covered two of them, but just to cover what was the link in the show, I

01:25:39 ◼   ► was to read this article, which is longer.

01:25:41 ◼   ► The first option is, it's the same Mac Mini you see today, but it has upgraded internals,

01:25:45 ◼   ► which is like the minimum they could do, right?

01:25:48 ◼   ► Better CPUs, GPUs, faster SSD, like all the things you expect.

01:25:53 ◼   ► know USB C ports on the back but like but otherwise it's the same and probably

01:25:57 ◼   ► a price bump because why not right second option is the Apple TV size Mac

01:26:02 ◼   ► Mini right it's it's smaller it's you know like as a lower power stuff in

01:26:10 ◼   ► there in both senses but it's like the size of a hockey puck so a whole new

01:26:13 ◼   ► realm of things becomes possible like the Intel NUC like the Apple TV you know

01:26:18 ◼   ► that's the second option and the third option which you didn't mention because

01:26:22 ◼   ► you know, I think this is probably the least likely, is that it's basically the

01:26:28 ◼   ► X Mac or the poor man's Mac Pro. It is a small modular computer but that it goes

01:26:33 ◼   ► like upmarket in terms of power. Like what if you don't want an iMac because

01:26:40 ◼   ► you don't want screen but you also don't want a bazillion dollar Mac Pro. You want

01:26:44 ◼   ► a desktop Mac that is nevertheless configurable and you can put some

01:26:47 ◼   ► powerful stuff in it and you don't have to say it's upgradeable. Maybe it's not

01:26:50 ◼   ► upgradeable at all. Maybe this is total, you know, but it is like faster. Like it's actually

01:26:54 ◼   ► got some fast processors in it and a fast SSD. It's like a little mini speed demo. Again,

01:26:58 ◼   ► this is the least option. All of these are small computers. They're small computers that

01:27:03 ◼   ► do not have a screen. It's not a laptop, but they're like, it's like three sizes. You know,

01:27:07 ◼   ► you got the current size, which I think is actually kind of gross. It's like, you know,

01:27:11 ◼   ► flat and wide. I kind of, not that I like the taller, skinnier one, but I don't like

01:27:15 ◼   ► things to get wider. Like I think that limits usefulness. But anyway, you got that form

01:27:19 ◼   ► factor you've got the hockey puck and then presumably the the x-mac or the poor man's mac pro

01:27:24 ◼   ► would be bigger still than the current one and these three options are not equally likely in my

01:27:31 ◼   ► you know like you said about the puck like who really wants that and it's extremely limiting

01:27:35 ◼   ► um the the x-mac or poor man's mac pro it's just not going to happen like give up you know that's

01:27:42 ◼   ► why the x-mac will never you know that's something that enthusiasts want they don't want and so that

01:27:47 ◼   ► leaves the first one where it is a new Mac Mini with updated internals and maybe it changes size in some small way because they

01:27:53 ◼   ► Can make it smaller now, but it's not hockey puck size

01:27:55 ◼   ► You know like and I guess there's you know fourth option or whatever that it's just something entirely crazy like that's by the way

01:28:05 ◼   ► The Mac Mini and the Mac Pro both

01:28:07 ◼   ► Seem to induce this in people where they start to get the idea like what if it was like a bunch of Mac Minis you

01:28:12 ◼   ► could combine them and they would combine forces like Voltron and

01:28:15 ◼   ► You know use some sort of magic technology to distribute computing across them

01:28:20 ◼   ► And if you just added more Mac minis it would get faster and all sorts of fantasy scenarios

01:28:24 ◼   ► They're like this is not this is not the 90s

01:28:27 ◼   ► This is not the Apple that made the duo doc like that's not gonna happen. This is not their

01:28:32 ◼   ► important product you could technically do some of these things but

01:28:36 ◼   ► You know not the Mac mini it gets is the least investment of any Mac

01:28:40 ◼   ► So you should just hope that they update it that the price is not too obscene and that it is good to go for another

01:28:47 ◼   ► Three years, and I think that's the best you can hope for and I think that's what's gonna happen

01:28:49 ◼   ► Yeah, I think it's it's kind of sad though that we the option that we think is the most likely is

01:28:56 ◼   ► Also, probably what the fewest Mac mini customers are asking for or want you think so I do

01:29:02 ◼   ► I mean like so so, you know the the most likely one obviously is the one where they make it even smaller and remove even

01:29:08 ◼   ► more from it.

01:29:08 ◼   ► - Oh, no, no, I think the most likely one

01:29:10 ◼   ► is to just update the internals.

01:29:11 ◼   ► They can still make it smaller,

01:29:12 ◼   ► but it's not gonna be Puck.

01:29:13 ◼   ► I don't think the Puck is the most likely one at all.

01:29:15 ◼   ► I think it's still a silver box.

01:29:17 ◼   ► It just has different ports and different internals.

01:29:19 ◼   ► I think that's the most likely.

01:29:21 ◼   ► - So based on what Modern Apple would do

01:29:26 ◼   ► and what Modern Apple should do,

01:29:29 ◼   ► I think making it better,

01:29:31 ◼   ► making it more powerful, more expandable, more upgradable,

01:29:37 ◼   ► That's not gonna happen.

01:29:38 ◼   ► I think the best we can hope for is that they keep it

01:29:40 ◼   ► the same and just update the guts.

01:29:42 ◼   ► So, and it's really telling to consider,

01:29:46 ◼   ► that is, that's what we're hoping for here is like,

01:29:50 ◼   ► please Apple, don't touch it too much.

01:29:52 ◼   ► Like, please like touch it a little bit,

01:29:54 ◼   ► like give us upgrade, upgrading opponents,

01:29:56 ◼   ► but like, I feel like, you know, going back to my argument,

01:30:00 ◼   ► I think last year or the one before about Apple

01:30:02 ◼   ► lacking confidence in its design,

01:30:05 ◼   ► it seems like Apple refuses to update a product

01:30:09 ◼   ► where it's just a spec bump a lot of the time.

01:30:14 ◼   ► The Mac Pro famously was never updated

01:30:16 ◼   ► after it was released.

01:30:17 ◼   ► The laptops before that had wide, long spans

01:30:20 ◼   ► where they could have upgraded CPUs, but they didn't.

01:30:23 ◼   ► The Mac Mini is the clearest example yet of that now

01:30:27 ◼   ► in the current lineup, because I consider the Mac Pro

01:30:30 ◼   ► not in the current lineup, even though it's typically

01:30:32 ◼   ► for sale.

01:30:33 ◼   ► Anyway, I think Apple needs to get over this insecurity

01:30:38 ◼   ► or this roadblock they have in their head

01:30:39 ◼   ► that every update has to be some kind of new

01:30:43 ◼   ► external design or mind-blowing thing

01:30:45 ◼   ► because that is important for some of their products.

01:30:48 ◼   ► I'd say the iPhone is the biggest example

01:30:50 ◼   ► where the market really values that.

01:30:52 ◼   ► But there are a lot of products they sell

01:30:54 ◼   ► where the market doesn't really care about that so much

01:30:56 ◼   ► and if the alternative to having a fancy new

01:31:02 ◼   ► external design on a regular basis is never getting

01:31:05 ◼   ► an update of any kind, then Apple needs to really

01:31:09 ◼   ► consider what that says about them and what kind

01:31:12 ◼   ► of computer company they wanna be.

01:31:14 ◼   ► If they still wanna be a computer company,

01:31:15 ◼   ► please, for the love of God, please, I mean, geez.

01:31:18 ◼   ► That's a valid question these days.

01:31:20 ◼   ► But it is totally fine for the Mac Mini to get updates

01:31:25 ◼   ► where the external design does not change.

01:31:29 ◼   ► And Apple should be confident enough to be able to update it

01:31:34 ◼   ► without saying, well, we can't do anything big,

01:31:38 ◼   ► so we should just wait until we can.

01:31:40 ◼   ► 'Cause that's not how computers work.

01:31:42 ◼   ► Like, that's not how people buy computers.

01:31:44 ◼   ► That's not what anybody wants.

01:31:47 ◼   ► - Didn't they just do two updates

01:31:48 ◼   ► to the Mac Mini like that, though?

01:31:49 ◼   ► The last two updates have been form factor doesn't change,

01:31:52 ◼   ► internals get quote unquote better.

01:31:54 ◼   ► The first, the 2012 one is they didn't get better.

01:31:56 ◼   ► So I feel like the Mac Mini,

01:31:58 ◼   ► if only because they don't want to spend the money to design and do new tooling for a new thing.

01:32:02 ◼   ► And to be clear, I think it is entirely possible the Mac Mini will get smaller. I'm just saying

01:32:07 ◼   ► it's not going to become something the size of the Apple TV. Like, it's not going to become super

01:32:11 ◼   ► duper small, because to do that you would have to really cut the power on it. Like, it would have to

01:32:16 ◼   ► get way slower than it is. You can't, or maybe it wouldn't, maybe you could say the same speed as the

01:32:20 ◼   ► three-year-old's computer. But the whole point is people want a bump because they want a Mac Mini

01:32:24 ◼   ► that is more capable than the current one.

01:32:26 ◼   ► And if you just say, "Okay, well, how about if it's the same speeder, it's the size of

01:32:29 ◼   ► a hockey puck?"

01:32:30 ◼   ► I think they can make it smaller, maybe not make it so darn wide and have a smaller case,

01:32:36 ◼   ► but it should be faster than the current one.

01:32:37 ◼   ► If they introduce a new Mac money that is not faster than the old one, that is definitely

01:32:42 ◼   ► not what anybody wants.

01:32:43 ◼   ► They already did it once.

01:32:44 ◼   ► Yeah, I know, I know.

01:32:45 ◼   ► That was the core account thing and then nobody liked that update and stuff, but the one after

01:32:50 ◼   ► that actually did get faster.

01:32:51 ◼   ► You know, like...

01:32:52 ◼   ► No, no, no.

01:32:53 ◼   ► I have the one that got slower

01:32:55 ◼   ► The 2012 one wasn't the one where they cut the four core option 2012 was was the good one

01:33:00 ◼   ► They killed the four core option in the current lineup, which is 2014. Yeah. All right. Well anyway, I

01:33:06 ◼   ► That's what people want because why are you not satisfied with the current Mac Mini?

01:33:10 ◼   ► It's super expensive and when you get for that money doesn't run Mac OS that well because it's old and slow

01:33:15 ◼   ► So give me a new Mac Mini and if we say new Mac Mini same speed as your old one

01:33:20 ◼   ► but the size of a hockey puck, you're like, that's not what I wanted.

01:33:22 ◼   ► Right? It's not, that doesn't help me.

01:33:25 ◼   ► I would just like, I would just keep using this one.

01:33:27 ◼   ► So I agree that it will not be an X Mac, but I think it's also not going to be a puck.

01:33:32 ◼   ► I think it will be a Mac mini, either the same size as the current case or smaller,

01:33:37 ◼   ► but not puck size, and it has to be.

01:33:40 ◼   ► It has to be faster.

01:33:41 ◼   ► How could it not be faster?

01:33:42 ◼   ► Just three-year-old guts in there.

01:33:43 ◼   ► Probably older.

01:33:44 ◼   ► It has to be faster.

01:33:45 ◼   ► So Tim Cook didn't say that in his email, but maybe I'll email him later and say, hey,

01:33:49 ◼   ► "Hey Tim, the Mac Mini, it's gonna be faster, right?"

01:33:52 ◼   ► And he'll send me one reply that says yes.

01:33:54 ◼   ► - Yeah, no, are you kidding?

01:33:56 ◼   ► He can't say one word.

01:33:57 ◼   ► He'll give you three sentences that say nothing.

01:33:59 ◼   ► It is also worth looking back at what the role

01:34:02 ◼   ► the Mac Mini was supposed to be in the first place.

01:34:03 ◼   ► When it was first launched, what about 12 years ago,

01:34:06 ◼   ► something like that?

01:34:07 ◼   ► What was the role back then?

01:34:09 ◼   ► At the time, it was basically the Mac for new switchers

01:34:13 ◼   ► to the Mac platform.

01:34:15 ◼   ► And it was a way that if the rest of the Macs

01:34:18 ◼   ► for too expensive for your budget or for your needs,

01:34:22 ◼   ► then here's a way you could get a Mac for less money,

01:34:25 ◼   ► you supply your own, you know, whatever display

01:34:28 ◼   ► and keyboard and mouse you already have

01:34:30 ◼   ► or you can get cheaply from other people,

01:34:32 ◼   ► you bring that, we'll give you the box.

01:34:34 ◼   ► And that can be your Mac for a lot less money

01:34:37 ◼   ► than our big towers or our laptops.

01:34:39 ◼   ► I think if modern Apple still viewed the Mac

01:34:42 ◼   ► as a business that had potential growth in it,

01:34:45 ◼   ► which is a big question mark, I think,

01:34:47 ◼   ► which is unfortunate because I think there's tons