164: Waiting for the Bla-Bloop
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I like the fact that every time I start a call,
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I have to click the button to say that I want to see the chat,
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even though every single time I start a call, I do it.
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Yeah, of all the work they've put into Skype,
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they've never decided to make that persistent.
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Yeah, God forbid an application remember anything that you do to it.
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It's born anew every launch.
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Happy birthday.
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We have important things to talk about, so we should dive right in.
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How's the Tesla?
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Not that different from my opinion of it last week.
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It's amazing. Like, it's just amazing. I really am appreciating it more and more every day,
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and I already appreciate it quite a bit, so that's saying a lot. I'm very happy with the decision I
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made to go with it. I'm also very happy with the one I chose to get, not getting the faster one
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with less range for a lot more money. I'm just very happy with it. Now, tell me about—you tweeted
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earlier today as we record that you put, like, this little teeny tiny USB stick. What is this
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all about? Is this to put like three fish songs? Because it's like a 30 gig stick, right?
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So that's like three or four fish songs?
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It's 128 gig sticks, so it's six fish songs.
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Ah, fair enough.
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I don't actually need 128 gigs of storage in my car, but it was like 10 bucks more than
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what I needed, so it's like, okay, just in case. I'm sure I will have some reason to
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use 128 gig USB stick. It was like 40 bucks.
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Is that all they are now? Good grief.
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Yeah, exactly! So this is the first USB stick I've ever purchased.
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I've really used them and I've accumulated enough
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little ones from freebies from things here and there
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over the last decade that if I ever needed one
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for the one time every two years I might actually need one,
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I would just use one of those.
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But none of them were big enough.
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And if you wait until 2016 to buy a USB stick,
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USB sticks are really good and are almost free.
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I want something very, very small
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'cause this is in the center console of the car.
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It's in the passenger compartment, so it's visible
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protrudes from a little port. So I wanted it to be as small as possible. You know, there
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was basically this one and a SanDisk one and the reviews of the SanDisk one all said that
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it overheated constantly and ran weirdly hot all the time and the Samsung one everyone
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said, "Nope, works great, doesn't overheat like that weird SanDisk one." So I went with
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that. And the only downside of it, you know, it's incredibly fast, it's USB 3 and it has
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really high quality flash in there because Samsung is really good at flash. I also have
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I also have Samsung external flash drive
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just in a two and a half inch enclosure for my computer.
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'Cause they make two gig SSD, or sorry,
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two terabyte SSDs now for like 600 bucks.
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And granted, $600 is a lot of money.
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And two terabytes is not an earth-shattering
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amount of space in 2016.
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However, a two terabyte SSD that exists at all,
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let alone is an affordable price, is quite something.
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So I'm very happy with that,
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'cause it is totally silent and very, very fast.
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so I store all my media on there anyway.
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So this little Samsung stick, the only flaw in it
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is that it has this giant Samsung logo written
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on the part of it that sticks out.
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So I just sanded it off with some light sandpaper
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in about five minutes that I found in my garage.
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And it's great.
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So now it's a nice blank USB drive that is perfect.
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Turns out USB sticks are kind of useful sometimes.
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So anyway, the reason it's there in my car
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is because the car has the ability to,
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like many modern car stereos,
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to browse folders of MP3 files
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that you put on USB storage media.
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And I don't think, I have to double check,
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but I was pretty sure that it didn't have the ability
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to use the iPod music browsing interface
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from the iPhone when that was plugged in.
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So, which is fine, because I actually prefer
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having folders that I can organize things in,
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'cause I don't take my entire collection in the car,
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'cause most of my collection doesn't matter in the car.
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So it's nice to kind of be able to organize it into folders
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and have actual like subfolders.
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So I have a folder for FISH 2015,
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and then in that is like each 2015 tour,
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and I can organize it how I want,
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which is kind of different from what you get
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in like a typical iPod thing.
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And it plays the songs in order,
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which thank God, it's amazing.
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I don't know who designed whatever system many other car manufacturers and head unit
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manufacturers use where whatever you insert, it plays the songs alphabetically by song
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Whoever wants to hear things alphabetically by song title.
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There are two orders that you're allowed to play things in.
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Either the order that they are on the album or shuffle.
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Nobody ever wants any other order.
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Yeah, see I I have I don't remember how much music I have my car I only have about 12 gigs
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That's available to me
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But I almost exclusively listen to stuff on my car and even though the Bluetooth stack is pretty good on my car
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I find it just easier to navigate via iDrive and so with that in mind
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Why do you not use Bluetooth on the Tesla?
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I would think
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Not having played with it that that being able to manipulate things on the Tesla would be a lot easier because you have that whole
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big display there, but I guess if all you really have available to you via Bluetooth
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is like skip forward, skip back, play, pause, maybe it's not really any different than
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any other car.
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You're right that having the big display there actually does make it much more useful
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when you're doing things like navigating a USB stick full of folders and stuff, so
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that is awesome on there. You are also right that Bluetooth is very limited in its interaction,
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and making this problem worse, Tesla's Bluetooth implementation isn't particularly
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great, it's an okay one, but there's a couple of shortcomings. The biggest one to me is
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that it doesn't display the time elapsed or remaining, which is really annoying for podcasts.
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More humorously, there is some method to transfer album art, and many Bluetooth stereos will
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show album art as transferred from the end, but I think that's actually an Apple extension
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to the standard or something anyway, it doesn't matter. Tesla doesn't support the album art
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extension or whatever displays album art over Bluetooth. So instead, they show you the album
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art from some kind of central album art database of a fuzzy match of whatever title is being
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supplied by the device. So it tries to be smart, but then you end up with completely
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nonsensical, random, often slightly risque album art when you're listening to Back to
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It's like, it's, it makes no sense.
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Like, the other day, I was like back to work
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and I'm showing like some girl in a bikini
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on like some album, I was like, you gotta be kidding me.
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Like, and then I'm driving around like,
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I'm like in my son's high school or preschool parking lot
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and there's like this bikini girl showing on my dashboard,
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I'm like, oh my God, I gotta listen to something else.
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- That's not gonna work.
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- So yeah, that is very strange.
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I hope Tesla improves that shortly.
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I'm not keeping my hopes up here,
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'cause I know that chances are this'll just be
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how this car is for most of the time I have it,
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'cause nobody cares about this area of the software
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except me, but yeah.
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- Well, you've said you never work at Apple.
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Would you work at Tesla?
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- I mean, I don't really want to move to California
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for a job, however, I actually did,
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I was thinking recently, like,
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would I be interested in working for Tesla?
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And I think it would be actually potentially very interesting.
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It would certainly give me pause.
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I would certainly consider it.
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Not to work on any of the fancy electrical stuff because I'm not qualified and also
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don't care, but in order to work on the in-dash software, the touchscreen software,
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the interface, the media stuff, maybe.
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I don't know.
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the house. Change the answer a little bit? Maybe a little. Could I bring hops? No. Like
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a job where you get up and you get in your Tesla and you drive to the office and you
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do your work there and then you drive back home and you have to do it Monday through
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Friday and when you take vacation you have to tell them and you get a certain number
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of those a year. I'm reminding you what a job is in case. If I can wear my slippers
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slippers? And if I can take naps at the office, then yes.
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Slippers? I don't know. I think, although we have some people at work who wear socks
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and some people at work who are barefoot, but I feel like that is not the norm.
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Do you ever rock either of those looks, Jon?
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No. Are you kidding? I mean, if anyone has ever been in an office late in New England,
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- You see the mice that come out.
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Like, I mean, you're just there late,
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and you look over, and you're like,
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"Oh, there's a mouse."
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And they just hop across the carpet.
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And then you think about all the people
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walking around all day with socks or bare feet
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in this office, like, "Nope, just a big nope there."
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- Alright, so Anonymous wrote in again.
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Anonymous does that from time to time.
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And they cleared something up, sort of,
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about Apple and renewable energy.
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And I was wondering, and I think a lot of people
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wondering, "Eh, are they really using renewable energy, or are they just like doing an offset
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sort of thing?"
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So Anonymous wrote, "Apple is engaging in agreements for 15 to 25 years of power from
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renewable facilities by contracting with a wind or solar developer and agreeing to a
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fixed price of power over the term.
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So Apple doesn't physically use this power.
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Instead, they agree to pay the wind or solar operator the fixed price per megawatt hour
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of energy generated by the farm.
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The operator then sells the actual power into the local market or utility service area where
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the facility is located.
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And I don't know, Jon, do you want to kind of distill this whole economic bit after here?
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I believe this anonymous person was somebody who works for some alternative energy or works
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in the alternative energy industry.
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And I don't think they were going from any firsthand knowledge of contracts, but just
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like last time we talked about solar and everything.
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And I think some people have a vision in their mind of Apple building solar farms and connecting
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a big wire from those solar farms to their facilities, which may be a thing that happens
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in certain circumstances, depending on the geography and the available existing alternative
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energy sources.
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And then other people are imagining, all Apple is doing is buying offsets from some distant
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land and just saying, "We'll pay you for that energy, and that offsets the energy we're
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taking from our local power provider, and then you give that energy to the people who
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live near the existing solar wind farm. and i imagine they do all those things and this
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feedback had more detail in terms of the specifics of the agreement of not just that they're paying
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for energy you know elsewhere because like there's a you know solar power facility miles and miles
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away and they're not going to like run a wire from that to them you know. but that there it's not even
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that they entered these contracts where they say we'll pay you a certain amount every month for you
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for each megawatt hour of energy.
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And it's kind of like a bet
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between the alternative energy provider and Apple,
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because if it turns out that the price to generate
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that energy was lower than what Apple agreed to pay,
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then that's good because the solar operator says,
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"We only had to pay 2 cents per megawatt hour,
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and you're buying it from us for $1 per megawatt hour,
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and we get to keep the difference."
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And the reverse is true too.
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If it costs the solar energy provider,
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"Oh, it turns out this month,
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it costs us 10 bucks per megawatt hour,
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and Apple agreed to pay us $1,
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we just have to eat that $9 per megawatt hour.
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So the key financial deal here,
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because this comes in when I was talking about
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how Apple can do this
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because they have all this money to burn,
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is that in a deal of this kind,
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there's no upfront payment for the power.
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If the facility already exists,
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all Apple has to do is enter into a contract with them
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and have this agreed upon price
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in this particular arrangement, I think,
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what is it called?
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A contract for differences, it's called.
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So you don't necessarily even have to have a lot of capital
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if you can enter into one of these agreements and then it's just a matter of striking a
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good deal based on what you think it will actually cost over the long term to generate
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this power from this particular facility.
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So anyway, the world is weird and that is a detail that's not particularly important.
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It's not as if Apple's being disingenuous because buying offsets or entering into these
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agreements or paying for someone who lives near a solar facility to get that energy from
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this whole facility while you get it from the coal-fired plant.
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Like, it's all, it all comes out in the wash.
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all on the same planet, it's all the same atmosphere, all the same CO2. And if Apple
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didn't do this and didn't pay for these renewables, no matter who is actually getting those specific
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electrons, I wouldn't make a difference. What you're looking for is total CO2 output of
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the planet and not, you know, whether it's like right next to you or right next to someone
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else. Anyway, I thought it was interesting.
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All right. So have all of us switched to Purple Safari? I am using it on my work computer.
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I just tonight installed it on my iMac, but haven't started using it yet. I should note
00:14:10
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actually as I forgot about this follow-up, the beta of 1Password for sure. And at this
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point they might have released a new non-beta version. But anyway, the beta of 1Password
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supports the new Purple Safari. So if you are having the same woes that I was, you can
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run the beta. Additionally, there's a switch in preferences that a couple people wrote
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in to tell me about, and forgive me because I don't have either your names or the preference
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in front of me, but even on the regular version, somewhere in like the advanced preferences
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where they have the little Jedi-looking person on the right-hand side or the robot or not,
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there's a switch that says you can override the security checks on the browser.
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But anyway, we're not here to talk about 1Password, we're here to talk about Purple Safari.
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So have you guys been using it?
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I've switched everywhere, and last week I was worried that switching—that I'd have
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to somehow disable my regular Safari or it would like get launched by like an Apple event
00:15:07
◼
►
somewhere or you know whatever but after using it both at home and at work for a week my
00:15:12
◼
►
fears were unfounded.
00:15:14
◼
►
You switch the default browser in the Safari preference panes for either version of Safari
00:15:19
◼
►
you know pull the other one off your dock and it's purple Safari all the way from there
00:15:23
◼
►
and it works fine.
00:15:24
◼
►
The only annoyance I found is that it unlike Chrome which will like sync your extensions
00:15:29
◼
►
everywhere. I had to sort of reinstall all my Safari extensions and a lot of them I had to kind
00:15:33
◼
►
of track down and find the original websites where I mean I could just dug them out of the folder but
00:15:36
◼
►
I was trying to you know it was a good time to just get them from the web again or go through
00:15:41
◼
►
the you know maybe get the later version if I had a bad update URL but anyway I had to reinstall my
00:15:46
◼
►
extensions rearrange all rearrange all my icons on my toolbar, re-import the options like I have
00:15:51
◼
►
the Safari keyword extension lets you type stuff in the address bar and do searches. I had to export
00:15:56
◼
►
those from Safari and import them. Once I get everything set up, I'm all purple Safari now,
00:16:00
◼
►
and I think I'll just stay this way unless I have some compelling reason to switch back,
00:16:03
◼
►
like purple Safari suddenly starts crashing. But so far so good. I recommend people trying it out
00:16:08
◼
►
if you're interested in maybe having a little bit faster Safari, or if you're interested in any of
00:16:13
◼
►
the many new web technologies that are introduced in it, like if you're a web developer and want to
00:16:17
◼
►
try them out. Yeah, I did feel like it was faster, although that very well could be a placebo effect.
00:16:23
◼
►
But I remember thinking to myself, "Wow, this feels fast."
00:16:27
◼
►
So I don't know.
00:16:29
◼
►
But do you feel like it's been quicker for you as well?
00:16:32
◼
►
- Purple is faster, everyone knows that.
00:16:34
◼
►
- Ah, totally.
00:16:35
◼
►
All right, good talk.
00:16:36
◼
►
I don't know what that reference was, if it was one.
00:16:38
◼
►
Anyway, so there's been a pretty considerable kerfuffle
00:16:43
◼
►
going across the internet over the last couple of days
00:16:47
◼
►
about TextExpander 6.
00:16:49
◼
►
TextExpander is an app that,
00:16:51
◼
►
have they sponsored us in the past?
00:16:53
◼
►
I believe they have.
00:16:54
◼
►
- They sponsor so much stuff.
00:16:55
◼
►
I think, I'm pretty sure, I mean,
00:16:57
◼
►
I think PDF Pen sponsored my site a while back,
00:17:00
◼
►
which is also Smiles, so, at any rate,
00:17:01
◼
►
they've probably sponsored our stuff.
00:17:03
◼
►
- Right, so, TextExpander 6 is new,
00:17:06
◼
►
and it is moving to a subscription model.
00:17:10
◼
►
And it previously was somewhere between 10 and 20 bucks,
00:17:14
◼
►
depending on the platform, I believe.
00:17:16
◼
►
And they tended to do an update about once a year,
00:17:19
◼
►
from what I gather.
00:17:20
◼
►
I am actually not a TextExpander user,
00:17:22
◼
►
but that's the general gist of what I've understood.
00:17:25
◼
►
And they've announced that, hey, they're going to switch
00:17:27
◼
►
to subscription pricing.
00:17:28
◼
►
It's about 50 bucks a year, give or take,
00:17:31
◼
►
and you can get sync through their own servers,
00:17:34
◼
►
kind of like what 1Password's doing now
00:17:36
◼
►
with 1Password for Teams and 1Password for Families,
00:17:40
◼
►
and actually day one as well.
00:17:42
◼
►
So you can sync via their servers
00:17:45
◼
►
and you can have collaborations
00:17:48
◼
►
or you can have a shared text expander snippets
00:17:52
◼
►
across teams, if that's something that you're interested in.
00:17:55
◼
►
But by the way, we are not supporting Dropbox-based sync anymore.
00:18:02
◼
►
Basically it's either use the old version until it doesn't work anymore, or give us
00:18:07
◼
►
money and we'll give you the new hotness.
00:18:10
◼
►
And a lot of people are flustered.
00:18:13
◼
►
And we'll put a link to MJ Sai's blog, which as always is a really good summary.
00:18:20
◼
►
This is one of the longer ones I've seen, actually, but a really good summary.
00:18:24
◼
►
And it kind of goes through a lot of different reactions.
00:18:27
◼
►
And I think the general summary is those who are developers or know developers completely
00:18:33
◼
►
understand it and are probably willing to pay for it.
00:18:38
◼
►
But those who are just users or can kind of put on their user hat, it's a tough sell.
00:18:47
◼
►
unlike 1Password, they're kind of taking something away. 1Password will continue to let you use
00:18:53
◼
►
Dropbox at least for now, and it seems that Smile's taking away that option for any future
00:18:58
◼
►
version. So, I don't know. I don't really have a lot to say about this, because like
00:19:03
◼
►
I said, I'm not a text expander user, but it's certainly a tough thing, because how
00:19:07
◼
►
do you make money in the app store these days? I mean, it's not easy, is it, Marco?
00:19:11
◼
►
- No, it's really not.
00:19:12
◼
►
I mean, my view on this is certainly colored
00:19:16
◼
►
by my own experiences in the app store.
00:19:19
◼
►
And I have some distance from it because
00:19:21
◼
►
while I did purchase the most recent version
00:19:23
◼
►
of Text Commander before this,
00:19:25
◼
►
when I was thinking I could actually answer support emails,
00:19:28
◼
►
I don't currently use it because it turns out
00:19:31
◼
►
I can't answer support emails.
00:19:32
◼
►
So I'm not an active user of it,
00:19:34
◼
►
so I'm not really invested in it either way.
00:19:36
◼
►
And at the same time, I also now sell an app
00:19:40
◼
►
with subscription pricing, sort of.
00:19:42
◼
►
I see why a lot of people are mad about this.
00:19:45
◼
►
What I've seen from my own experience
00:19:47
◼
►
is that people get mad when they sense
00:19:50
◼
►
that you're like double dipping or unfairly charging
00:19:54
◼
►
in whatever their view is of unfair,
00:19:57
◼
►
or if you charge them or if you ask for money
00:20:00
◼
►
or if you put up barriers in a way
00:20:02
◼
►
that they are not accustomed to
00:20:04
◼
►
that breaks their expectations of like,
00:20:07
◼
►
I've never had to pay this way before
00:20:09
◼
►
or I've never had to pay for this thing before,
00:20:11
◼
►
or I thought I already owned this thing outright.
00:20:14
◼
►
And this is all very, very tricky these days,
00:20:16
◼
►
because the reality is people's expectations
00:20:19
◼
►
of software where you buy it and then you can use it
00:20:23
◼
►
for a while until maybe there's an upgrade
00:20:25
◼
►
a few years down the road, and then you buy the upgrade,
00:20:27
◼
►
maybe at a discount.
00:20:28
◼
►
People's expectations of that kind of software
00:20:31
◼
►
is that you pay once and then you have it.
00:20:34
◼
►
And at the same time, though,
00:20:37
◼
►
they also expect updates to it.
00:20:39
◼
►
They expect you to be fixing bugs,
00:20:41
◼
►
to be providing compatibility for new versions of the OS,
00:20:44
◼
►
and possibly even adding features
00:20:46
◼
►
all within that same initial price they paid.
00:20:49
◼
►
Somewhere along the line, that doesn't work.
00:20:53
◼
►
The people are thinking of the benefits of the software
00:20:55
◼
►
and the responsibility of the software makers
00:20:58
◼
►
as a service that is constantly provided over time
00:21:02
◼
►
for their one initial purchase price.
00:21:04
◼
►
But of course, they get really mad
00:21:06
◼
►
if you want them to pay on a subscription basis
00:21:09
◼
►
for what they're really getting,
00:21:11
◼
►
which is subscription benefits.
00:21:13
◼
►
It's kind of hard to not do that in some way or another
00:21:16
◼
►
if you're the software vendor.
00:21:18
◼
►
You are having ongoing cost.
00:21:19
◼
►
You're having cost as a service.
00:21:22
◼
►
Whether you're running servers or not,
00:21:23
◼
►
it's like you're having cost of just ongoing maintenance
00:21:25
◼
►
of this app and advancing it, moving it forward,
00:21:28
◼
►
keeping it working, improving it, et cetera.
00:21:31
◼
►
So there is this disconnect between
00:21:35
◼
►
what people are willing to pay for,
00:21:37
◼
►
which is they wanna pay once and own it forever,
00:21:39
◼
►
but also that if you don't give them constant updates,
00:21:44
◼
►
they will hate you even more for that.
00:21:46
◼
►
And they certainly don't want you to go out of business,
00:21:48
◼
►
they really hate when you do that,
00:21:49
◼
►
or when you pull a product.
00:21:51
◼
►
They really hate that.
00:21:52
◼
►
So that's worse.
00:21:54
◼
►
So they want you to be there,
00:21:56
◼
►
and to be providing updates on a regular basis,
00:21:59
◼
►
and to fix any bugs that crop up,
00:22:01
◼
►
and to improve the product,
00:22:02
◼
►
and to make it work whenever there's a new OS.
00:22:04
◼
►
They want that, but they don't want to pay more than that one time up front.
00:22:09
◼
►
So obviously something has to give here.
00:22:12
◼
►
So I don't begrudge the idea of subscription pricing.
00:22:16
◼
►
I do think, however, that this particular case, I don't think they did a very good
00:22:22
◼
►
job with it.
00:22:23
◼
►
And I'm not too close to it, so maybe I'm wrong, but I think the reaction of a lot of
00:22:30
◼
►
their customers that I've been hearing about from today that might back up that I'm
00:22:34
◼
►
What TextExpander has done is they've transformed from a,
00:22:39
◼
►
what was the price of the app, like 35 bucks,
00:22:41
◼
►
something like that?
00:22:42
◼
►
- I don't know, to be honest.
00:22:43
◼
►
I thought it was closer to 20 originally,
00:22:45
◼
►
but I very well could have that wrong.
00:22:47
◼
►
- Whatever it is, I think it's somewhere in that range.
00:22:50
◼
►
It has transformed from that into a required
00:22:54
◼
►
$5 a month service.
00:22:57
◼
►
So it's a pretty substantial price increase,
00:23:00
◼
►
as well as the justification for this service
00:23:04
◼
►
being something, they justify it by saying,
00:23:06
◼
►
"Oh, well now you can like share your snippets
00:23:08
◼
►
"with coworkers or family or whatever else."
00:23:12
◼
►
And this is, it's like they took away the problem,
00:23:15
◼
►
or the solution they had for syncing
00:23:17
◼
►
for your own personal stuff between your own computers,
00:23:19
◼
►
which was syncing via Dropbox or BitTorrent sync
00:23:22
◼
►
or whatever other options they had
00:23:23
◼
►
that you could sync pretty much any way you wanted to,
00:23:25
◼
►
but I think a lot of people did Dropbox syncing.
00:23:27
◼
►
So they took that away, and now they're saying,
00:23:29
◼
►
now you have to pay us a lot more than you were paying before, but you will get these
00:23:33
◼
►
benefits. And the problem is those benefits were things that most of their customers,
00:23:37
◼
►
at least who we're hearing from, and I don't know if this applies to their entire customer
00:23:40
◼
►
base, but the customers we're hearing from don't really want those benefits, they don't
00:23:43
◼
►
really care about those benefits, and they're not going to use those benefits. So the reason
00:23:47
◼
►
everyone's mad is because not only have they changed the model in a way that a lot of people
00:23:52
◼
►
don't like, because a lot of people just don't like subscription pricing. And again, I totally
00:23:56
◼
►
get why people don't like that. I don't like it either, but I also don't like software
00:24:02
◼
►
that goes out of business or that can't afford to keep updated or anything else.
00:24:06
◼
►
So it's hard. I recognize the way that software developers really need to have some model
00:24:12
◼
►
that provides recurring revenue over time for users who are using it all the time. Whether
00:24:17
◼
►
you do that via occasional upgrade to upgrade pricing or whether you do it via a monthly
00:24:21
◼
►
subscription or some other scheme where they do with ads, you know, somehow you need to have some way to
00:24:27
◼
►
Make money from people over time not just once up front
00:24:31
◼
►
I don't think you need to be deep in the development community like, you know the mindset, you know
00:24:36
◼
►
Certainly Marco is coming from and all of us because we know developers and we talk to developers and like we have that perspective
00:24:41
◼
►
But I think for this particular change
00:24:43
◼
►
I think you could take just anyone from business school and throw them at this and even if they don't understand what software is
00:24:50
◼
►
I think it looks like so many other business decisions.
00:24:55
◼
►
So from my perspective, what they're doing,
00:24:58
◼
►
and it explains a lot of the anger that Marco just,
00:25:00
◼
►
you know, talked about from the, you know,
00:25:01
◼
►
the customer's perspective at the very least,
00:25:04
◼
►
is they have a customer base now that uses their product.
00:25:08
◼
►
If you were to survey those customers and say,
00:25:10
◼
►
how much value do you get out of using TextExpander?
00:25:13
◼
►
A lot of them would say, you know,
00:25:15
◼
►
I mean, maybe I get $45 worth of value out of,
00:25:18
◼
►
over the lifetime that I've been using it.
00:25:20
◼
►
Some would say, maybe I, you know,
00:25:22
◼
►
it's like asking like, how much would you pay?
00:25:24
◼
►
If we say, take TextExpander away from you
00:25:26
◼
►
and to get it back, you have to pay some money.
00:25:28
◼
►
Obviously, if someone like uses it to answer support email,
00:25:32
◼
►
for example, or like does a lot of repetitive emailing
00:25:35
◼
►
or uses very sophisticated features
00:25:36
◼
►
where you fill in the blanks and everything like that,
00:25:38
◼
►
they're gonna say, oh, you know,
00:25:40
◼
►
this is the main tool I use to make my living.
00:25:42
◼
►
Like it is an essential part of my workflow.
00:25:44
◼
►
If TextExpander was gone,
00:25:45
◼
►
I don't know what I would do with myself.
00:25:46
◼
►
It is incredibly valuable for me.
00:25:48
◼
►
The fact that I paid $45 for it last year is like the steal of the century.
00:25:51
◼
►
This is literally how I get all of my income.
00:25:55
◼
►
And the dream of any business school major is like, "Can I charge that guy like $3,000
00:26:01
◼
►
and then charge the guy who's only going to use it twice a year like five bucks?
00:26:05
◼
►
Can I charge every customer the maximum amount they're willing to pay for this software?"
00:26:11
◼
►
The answer is you can't do that because we don't know how much it's worth or whatever.
00:26:15
◼
►
what you can do and what it seems like Texas Smile is trying to do with this
00:26:18
◼
►
one is say we've got all these customers for a lot of them they're getting like
00:26:23
◼
►
$45 worth of value or even less out of the software but there are some users
00:26:28
◼
►
who get a tremendous amount of value because Texas Spanner is very powerful if
00:26:31
◼
►
you do the type of things that Texas Spanner is made to do this is like best
00:26:34
◼
►
in class like very sophisticated features you know like it makes and you
00:26:39
◼
►
know a very polished workflow at mature product stables you know like this is
00:26:44
◼
►
this is a it's not just like my first text expander type thing this is a very
00:26:48
◼
►
substantial product for the people who do this all the time and you say i would rather just sell to
00:26:55
◼
►
those people for a much higher price in a way that we can continue to sell to those people
00:27:01
◼
►
essentially forever as long as those people exist because they're doing it for their job and we're
00:27:06
◼
►
going to provide them this tool to do their job and the same kind of like photoshop type arrangement
00:27:09
◼
►
Like, you're a graphic designer.
00:27:12
◼
►
You use Photoshop to make your living.
00:27:15
◼
►
And we will give you the tool to make your living.
00:27:16
◼
►
And so you will subscribe to Photoshop because it's a bargain to you to pay whatever it is,
00:27:20
◼
►
100, 200 bucks a year to make thousands upon thousands of dollars as a graphic designer
00:27:25
◼
►
And if we took away Photoshop, it would seriously impair your productivity because you have
00:27:28
◼
►
to learn a new program and so on and so forth.
00:27:30
◼
►
So it's like TextExpander is saying, "Thanks for all the participation, casual TextExpander
00:27:35
◼
►
users, but we would much rather sell to the heaviest text expander users at a price that
00:27:43
◼
►
they find justifiable and that we feel like is the most sustainable, the most profitable,
00:27:49
◼
►
like whatever, you know, we're going to make it up in lack of volume, essentially. It's
00:27:52
◼
►
the opposite of we're going to make it up in volume. I just want the good customers,
00:27:56
◼
►
the ones who, the power user customers. And so why people are mad is text expander basically
00:28:01
◼
►
saying to them, not really, but basically saying, "We're not that interested in your
00:28:06
◼
►
business anymore. If TextExpander was only worth $45 and you want to use it for five
00:28:10
◼
►
years, that's not the kind of customer that we want to serve." Maybe it's because they
00:28:16
◼
►
feel like they can't serve it. Maybe, you know, like, I don't know what the motivation
00:28:19
◼
►
for it is, but even if they were doing great, they could say, "We're refocusing our business
00:28:23
◼
►
on the pro TextExpander market," right? And so everybody who wasn't a pro TextExpander
00:28:27
◼
►
is like, "But I like TextExpander. Like, I don't use it that much, but I really like
00:28:31
◼
►
it and now you're telling me I've been priced out of this market like because you want those
00:28:35
◼
►
other customers and that can definitely make people mad but what I keep thinking is do
00:28:40
◼
►
those people getting mad does that affect tax expander at all like you know that's the
00:28:45
◼
►
business you try a business model and you see are there enough people who are willing
00:28:48
◼
►
to pay 50 60 bucks a year for tax expander to make up for all the people you're losing
00:28:52
◼
►
who wanted to pay you know $45 once and use it for three years that's the experiment they're
00:28:57
◼
►
running, I think it is a perfectly valid experiment to have, but a necessary side effect is the
00:29:04
◼
►
disenfranchised become angry about the fact that previously they had access to this very
00:29:10
◼
►
powerful utility that maybe they only used occasionally or used a fraction of the power
00:29:14
◼
►
of, and now they can just use the old version until it eventually stops working.
00:29:21
◼
►
They've been cut out of that market and they have to look elsewhere so they could be annoyed
00:29:25
◼
►
I can't feel like I can get particularly mad about it just because I think it is a reasonable
00:29:32
◼
►
strategy for trying to make your business both more profitable, which, you know, like,
00:29:39
◼
►
"Oh, they just want more money."
00:29:40
◼
►
Yeah, that's how business works.
00:29:42
◼
►
More profitable and more sustainable.
00:29:44
◼
►
Because if you ever hit that critical mass, like apparently Adobe has and many other companies
00:29:48
◼
►
try to, of, "These users use my tool to make their living.
00:29:52
◼
►
They're willing to pay this much every single year, and that amount that they pay every
00:29:55
◼
►
single year with the number of them there are is enough to sustain development, you
00:29:59
◼
►
can do that essentially indefinitely. As long as a competitor doesn't come and steal your
00:30:03
◼
►
thing or your product doesn't become moot because everyone uses mind control or so many
00:30:07
◼
►
other things can affect you. But at the very least, you've got the basic inner workings
00:30:11
◼
►
of a sustainable business model there, which is a refreshing change after the boom bust
00:30:17
◼
►
viral hit throwaway application things that the app stores have brought on where it's
00:30:24
◼
►
It's like, I gotta make a new app every year
00:30:26
◼
►
and it's gotta be a big hit
00:30:26
◼
►
and if it isn't, we're going out of business.
00:30:28
◼
►
It's so much more comfortable to be able
00:30:29
◼
►
to have loyal customers who pay for your product
00:30:32
◼
►
and they're paying for your product every year,
00:30:33
◼
►
pays for your development and you just do that.
00:30:35
◼
►
- You know, if that really works out for them,
00:30:37
◼
►
if they end up making more money from this, that's fine.
00:30:39
◼
►
I think there's a couple angles to reconsider though.
00:30:42
◼
►
First of all, and I know you didn't say this,
00:30:44
◼
►
but for people thinking this, you can't just say,
00:30:46
◼
►
oh, they just wanted to make more money.
00:30:48
◼
►
It might be that they were declining in revenue
00:30:51
◼
►
and they're trying to sustain this business
00:30:53
◼
►
to keep this product going.
00:30:54
◼
►
- Well, that is making more money.
00:30:56
◼
►
More money than they were previously making
00:30:58
◼
►
because the previous amount was not enough
00:30:59
◼
►
to keep them in business.
00:31:00
◼
►
Like, they need to pay the bills and get the lights on.
00:31:02
◼
►
- Right, but you can look at it as a pure greed angle
00:31:04
◼
►
if they were doing fine before
00:31:06
◼
►
and now they just wanna juice it even higher,
00:31:08
◼
►
but it's also possible that it was going down before
00:31:10
◼
►
and now they're trying to just bring it back up
00:31:12
◼
►
to where it was, right?
00:31:14
◼
►
And if you read between the lines
00:31:15
◼
►
and some of the statements they've made,
00:31:16
◼
►
it sounds kind of like it wasn't making enough money before
00:31:20
◼
►
for them to justify working on it.
00:31:22
◼
►
Do you draw a distinction between those two cases
00:31:24
◼
►
that you just outlined?
00:31:25
◼
►
As in, previously we were sustainable,
00:31:27
◼
►
but we felt like we could make more money with this model,
00:31:29
◼
►
and previously we were unsustainable,
00:31:31
◼
►
so we have to do something to avoid going out of business.
00:31:33
◼
►
Do you think those are really any different?
00:31:37
◼
►
Is that a distinction that you make as a customer?
00:31:40
◼
►
Certainly it's a distinction you can imagine
00:31:42
◼
►
making just as kind of like a human being,
00:31:44
◼
►
where if it looks like they're gonna go out of business,
00:31:46
◼
►
you feel bad for them, you have empathy.
00:31:48
◼
►
You're like, I like those guys, I like their product,
00:31:50
◼
►
I don't wanna see them go out of business,
00:31:51
◼
►
both for self-investry reasons, like you said,
00:31:52
◼
►
because I'm a user of their product
00:31:53
◼
►
and I want it to continue to be developed, right?
00:31:56
◼
►
And also because you feel bad,
00:31:58
◼
►
like, oh, they've been doing a good job.
00:31:59
◼
►
Their job is to write programs.
00:32:01
◼
►
I think they're good at their job.
00:32:02
◼
►
And I would like to see them succeed
00:32:04
◼
►
because just basic human empathy.
00:32:07
◼
►
And therefore you're more willing to sort of
00:32:10
◼
►
allow for changes in their pricing model
00:32:13
◼
►
to sort of help them out
00:32:14
◼
►
versus they had a sustainable business
00:32:16
◼
►
and they just want more money.
00:32:17
◼
►
And that suddenly it's villainous to do that.
00:32:20
◼
►
like that you should never,
00:32:21
◼
►
that as soon as you have enough to pay your bills
00:32:24
◼
►
and not go hungry and pay for food and shelter,
00:32:26
◼
►
you should never want more
00:32:27
◼
►
because wanting anything more is entirely like,
00:32:30
◼
►
is essentially evil and that's greed.
00:32:33
◼
►
And I don't see a hard line between those things.
00:32:36
◼
►
I know a lot of people do,
00:32:37
◼
►
but it's like, where do you draw that line?
00:32:39
◼
►
When, what is enough money?
00:32:40
◼
►
Like I have enough to have payroll
00:32:42
◼
►
and enough to pay my mortgage,
00:32:45
◼
►
but not enough to save for retirement
00:32:47
◼
►
or send my kids to college.
00:32:48
◼
►
Is it okay to ask to make more money then?
00:32:50
◼
►
Like, I don't know that,
00:32:52
◼
►
if you start breaking that down,
00:32:53
◼
►
it starts to be nonsensical.
00:32:54
◼
►
So I'm personally willing to give wide latitude
00:32:59
◼
►
to making more, figuring out ways to make more money
00:33:01
◼
►
with your labor.
00:33:02
◼
►
If you're good at writing software
00:33:04
◼
►
and the software product you have made
00:33:05
◼
►
and polished over the years is TextExpander,
00:33:08
◼
►
and you find a way to make more money from that product,
00:33:11
◼
►
I don't attach any moral judgment to that at all.
00:33:14
◼
►
Even if it means that a whole bunch
00:33:16
◼
►
your previous customers are no longer in your customer base for future versions. But I know
00:33:20
◼
►
a lot of people do and I think a lot of that, like what you just highlighted, Marco, explains
00:33:24
◼
►
a lot of the anger that people really do draw that line of like, "You were making enough
00:33:28
◼
►
money to not live in the street already and now you want more? Forget it, you're evil."
00:33:33
◼
►
Oh, totally. Believe me, I hear from them that a lot of people draw that line and I'm
00:33:39
◼
►
not one of them. But I think that could be something to consider here. If you're getting
00:33:44
◼
►
angry at Smile for really dramatically raising the price of this app in a way that you might
00:33:51
◼
►
not like. It might be because they had to. But also, you have to look at the competitive
00:33:57
◼
►
landscape here. There are lots of similar utilities that do the same basic job and just
00:34:03
◼
►
differ in the features they offer on top of that. So there's lots of alternatives to
00:34:08
◼
►
this and honestly, today has probably been a very good day for them. However you feel
00:34:11
◼
►
about this with whether you're a customer or not, looking at it from Smiles' perspective,
00:34:17
◼
►
I think this was a mistake for them. And time will tell, obviously. I don't know the market
00:34:21
◼
►
at all. Time will tell. But they have basically discarded a big part of their existing customer
00:34:28
◼
►
base in an effort to either get more money from the part that's left and/or to move
00:34:33
◼
►
into a more business-oriented one where there will be allegedly businesses who use synced
00:34:40
◼
►
snippets and everything from Texas Commander and that might be a big business. I don't
00:34:44
◼
►
know. I don't, I wouldn't have guessed it would be a big business but I'm wrong all
00:34:48
◼
►
the time. So that might work out for them. If it does, that's fine. But I don't think
00:34:53
◼
►
this is going to go well because what I see mostly happening here is, you know, you can
00:35:00
◼
►
make a move like that when you are in a position of strength. You know, when you're like the
00:35:04
◼
►
only game in town and people depend on you to get their work done. And for a lot of people,
00:35:09
◼
►
will be true, but I don't think for enough people, because for a big part of the customers
00:35:14
◼
►
who are now faced with a big price hike and removal of features they used versus other
00:35:20
◼
►
choices, they have lots of other choices. There's all these alternative software things
00:35:25
◼
►
that do this for substantially less money now. Before, they were much more competitive.
00:35:31
◼
►
Now they're in a high competition environment, so I think one way to do this, one way to
00:35:38
◼
►
resolve this if they wanted to make more money
00:35:41
◼
►
or needed to make more money from this,
00:35:42
◼
►
you can either cut the costs that you're putting into it
00:35:46
◼
►
or you can charge more.
00:35:48
◼
►
Both of those are gonna affect your users
00:35:50
◼
►
negatively in some way.
00:35:51
◼
►
The question is which one can you get away with better?
00:35:54
◼
►
And I'm not sure they chose correctly,
00:35:57
◼
►
but I don't know how many choices they had.
00:35:58
◼
►
I don't know anything about their business.
00:36:00
◼
►
- The natural consequence of this,
00:36:02
◼
►
if you just keep playing it out,
00:36:03
◼
►
is that someone gets the idea,
00:36:04
◼
►
we could be enterprise software,
00:36:06
◼
►
we could charge minimum five figures
00:36:08
◼
►
for any installation of our thing.
00:36:09
◼
►
Like why not sell TextExpander into, you know,
00:36:13
◼
►
the sort of large email-based support networks of like,
00:36:18
◼
►
where if you're a very large company
00:36:20
◼
►
and you just have to hire like literally hundreds
00:36:22
◼
►
and hundreds of people to answer your support emails
00:36:24
◼
►
and everything, you'd want to give them tools
00:36:26
◼
►
to do their job well and sort of standardize
00:36:28
◼
►
on basic snippets and templates and so on and so forth.
00:36:31
◼
►
You can imagine, I'm sure there is really terrible
00:36:34
◼
►
enterprise software that already does that.
00:36:35
◼
►
And TextExpander perhaps sees that market and say,
00:36:38
◼
►
I would rather sell $5 million installations than $1.5 million apps, right?
00:36:44
◼
►
We want to actually become enterprise software.
00:36:46
◼
►
And so as we've discussed in many past shows, enterprise software can be tempting and can
00:36:51
◼
►
be lucrative, and you can be protected from competition by the fact that it's a pain in
00:36:57
◼
►
the butt to sell enterprise software and you have to hire salespeople and there's a high
00:36:59
◼
►
barrier to entry and you have relationships and make deals on golf courses or whatever
00:37:03
◼
►
the hell goes on.
00:37:04
◼
►
Enterprise software is absolutely poison to the quality of your products and it makes
00:37:09
◼
►
you vulnerable to anyone making anything worth a damn because eventually, you know, the enterprise
00:37:12
◼
►
software, my definition from many years ago was like, when the person who buys your software
00:37:17
◼
►
is not the person who uses it.
00:37:18
◼
►
And that is a totally misaligned incentive and it leads to software that is very, very
00:37:25
◼
►
attractive to buy, but terrible to use.
00:37:27
◼
►
Like, it's why igloo stays in business.
00:37:29
◼
►
Like you really, you really want to, you are vulnerable to someone who actually makes a
00:37:33
◼
►
a product that the user's like.
00:37:34
◼
►
Because eventually even enterprise users start to revolt
00:37:36
◼
►
and bring their iPhones to work or bring their Macs to work
00:37:39
◼
►
or bring whatever product they think is not a piece of crap
00:37:42
◼
►
and use that instead.
00:37:43
◼
►
So not that I'm saying TextExpander is suddenly
00:37:45
◼
►
a terrible, you know, Oracle or SAP type company,
00:37:48
◼
►
but that is, if you just keep playing that out and say,
00:37:51
◼
►
instead of mass market, low price, let's do, you know,
00:37:55
◼
►
much smaller market, much higher price.
00:37:57
◼
►
And it could be, like you said, Mark,
00:37:58
◼
►
if it's the crowded market for a TextExpander type products,
00:38:01
◼
►
how does TextExpander differentiate?
00:38:03
◼
►
What do they have that the other ones don't?
00:38:04
◼
►
Maybe what they have is we have a very sophisticated feature set.
00:38:07
◼
►
We want to be the pro-text expander product.
00:38:10
◼
►
We're going to leave the consumer market to our competitors and let them fight it out
00:38:13
◼
►
for the thousands and thousands of people who want to pay $5, $10, $15, $20, $30, $40,
00:38:19
◼
►
and we want to move upmarket and just keep the sort of high-end, the people who are willing
00:38:23
◼
►
to pay more for a better, more sophisticated product because it's part of how they do their
00:38:28
◼
►
I don't know how to handicap it either.
00:38:29
◼
►
Like you said, Margot, neither one of us knows the details of the text expander market landscape
00:38:35
◼
►
or whatever.
00:38:36
◼
►
I have the same feeling that this doesn't seem like a power move to me.
00:38:39
◼
►
This seems like something they would do because they were having trouble sustaining.
00:38:43
◼
►
I do agree that the alternatives you laid out are there.
00:38:46
◼
►
Maybe you just lower your costs.
00:38:47
◼
►
Maybe they had hired too many people.
00:38:49
◼
►
I have no idea how big their staffing is there.
00:38:53
◼
►
That's one way to go.
00:38:54
◼
►
But the other way is to, like I said, make it up in lack of volume.
00:38:58
◼
►
we make more money by selling to fewer people for a higher price?" And that seems, again,
00:39:04
◼
►
with total vacuum of knowledge. To me, if I had to make a bet, I would say that that
00:39:08
◼
►
has a higher chance of failing than not, because it's really, really hard to do that. I mean,
00:39:12
◼
►
it's hard to do in either direction. It's hard to say, "Hey, if we cut our price in
00:39:15
◼
►
half, will we get more than double the customers?" Especially in the App Store market, the way
00:39:19
◼
►
it is, that has worked for many people more often than, "Hey, if we double our price or
00:39:24
◼
►
triple our price, can we get more than half or a third as many people? I don't know. But
00:39:31
◼
►
anyway, this is business. Again, I understand why people get angry about it, but that's
00:39:35
◼
►
how it works. They decide a price and they say we are offering you the server with this
00:39:39
◼
►
price and then customers decide whether it's worth it for them. If it's not worth it, they
00:39:42
◼
►
don't buy it, and that is a signal to the company that you need to change something.
00:39:46
◼
►
And maybe the signal they were getting with the $45 one-time purchase product was people
00:39:50
◼
►
will buy it, but they don't like upgrades and we can't pay to maintain the software.
00:39:55
◼
►
So I think we'll revisit this in a year and see how it worked out for them, but I think
00:40:01
◼
►
going on-market is a viable strategy. I just feel like they might have to go even farther
00:40:04
◼
►
on market than this. And I agree with everything Marco said about, it's kind of like the things
00:40:10
◼
►
we talked about with Overcast, like perception-wise that you being cut out of the market in a
00:40:17
◼
►
way it makes you feel bad like I you know I like the previous deal I was
00:40:23
◼
►
getting and now they've altered the deal and Casey can finish that reference for
00:40:28
◼
►
me if he remembers it and they're sad about it and they also think there's no
00:40:34
◼
►
reason for it but I don't think they're looking at it from the perspective of
00:40:36
◼
►
Texas banner why should they they're just the customer but from the
00:40:39
◼
►
perspective of Texas banner is like maybe maybe take Spanish doesn't want you
00:40:42
◼
►
as a customer anymore it's like what do you mean they don't want me I've been
00:40:45
◼
►
such a loyal customer, I love their product, why wouldn't they want me anymore? Why can't
00:40:48
◼
►
they just continue to make the product that I've been using that syncs with Dropbox, why
00:40:51
◼
►
can't they just keep making that forever?" And the answer is, "Because you don't want
00:40:55
◼
►
to pay for it again." I'm like, "Oh, I do want to pay for it again, I'll pay you $45
00:40:58
◼
►
right now." Would you? Suddenly you're ready to pay $45 if they came up with a new version
00:41:02
◼
►
of Sex Expander and you bought six months ago, you'd be excited to pay $45 for a new
00:41:05
◼
►
version? I don't know if you would. Anyway, even if you would, maybe there's not enough
00:41:09
◼
►
other people like you, and so they have to come up with something different. It's not
00:41:13
◼
►
It's not personal.
00:41:14
◼
►
It's just business.
00:41:15
◼
►
I made a passing reference to this earlier, but I think it is important to reiterate that
00:41:20
◼
►
1Password changed—well, maybe not changed their model, but augmented their model by
00:41:25
◼
►
this 1Password for Teams and then 1Password for Families.
00:41:29
◼
►
And the thing that made me cool with 1Password for Teams and 1Password for Families was it
00:41:35
◼
►
didn't change the way things were.
00:41:37
◼
►
So it was not a change as, like I said a second ago, it was an augmentation or an addition.
00:41:44
◼
►
If one password, hypothetically, had said, "You know what?
00:41:48
◼
►
If you want to sync between your own devices, leave aside other people, leave aside the
00:41:52
◼
►
team aspects and the family aspects."
00:41:54
◼
►
If they had said that, "Hey, if you want to sync your passwords between your devices,
00:41:59
◼
►
You have to sign up for $5 a month," I would be fairly upset because I would feel like
00:42:05
◼
►
I got hoodwinked.
00:42:06
◼
►
like it was a bait and switch. And I freaking love 1Password. I consider it like you were,
00:42:11
◼
►
I think it was you John describing earlier, maybe it was Marco, but it is essential for me to get my
00:42:16
◼
►
my life done. Not even my work, but my life. I love 1Password. I would probably pay $5 a month for
00:42:23
◼
►
this hypothetical sync only service, but I would be pretty frustrated with it. And I would perhaps
00:42:30
◼
►
go from saying, "I freaking love 1Password," to, "Yeah, I like 1Password and I use it."
00:42:36
◼
►
As it turns out, because they didn't take away what I already had, and additionally
00:42:42
◼
►
they added this new family feature that's $5 per, I think, per family per month, and
00:42:49
◼
►
a family is defined as like, I don't know, five or so people, I forget exactly the specifics,
00:42:54
◼
►
I've signed up for 1Password for Family, and that was actually the impetus I needed to
00:43:00
◼
►
get Aaron using 1Password as well, which we haven't actually done yet, but it's on our
00:43:03
◼
►
to-do list for the weekend, is to get Aaron finally using 1Password.
00:43:08
◼
►
And that to me is the right way to handle this.
00:43:11
◼
►
But just like you guys said, you know, I'm making all these proclamations in a vacuum
00:43:14
◼
►
and I don't know what Smile's dealing with, I don't know what they're up against, but
00:43:18
◼
►
taking away what's already there in that they're saying that they're not going to support Dropbox
00:43:22
◼
►
and other sync methods, man, it's hard not to feel burned by that.
00:43:28
◼
►
Even if you're sympathetic to them, it's hard not to feel burned.
00:43:32
◼
►
You wonder if it's intentional.
00:43:34
◼
►
We'll see in the coming days if they change course.
00:43:36
◼
►
It could have been like what OnePassword did was essentially expanded their market.
00:43:39
◼
►
Like they said, we have all these customers, they use our product.
00:43:42
◼
►
We think some of these customers would be willing to pay more because it is really important
00:43:48
◼
►
So if we give them this one extra feature, this family sinking or whatever, we're going
00:43:51
◼
►
to leave all the existing customers with the product they have.
00:43:53
◼
►
It's the same product.
00:43:54
◼
►
We're not excluding them.
00:43:56
◼
►
We just want to expand the market with this new little bump in our little, you know, the
00:43:59
◼
►
blob that is the market, put another little bump that's, and these people are willing
00:44:02
◼
►
to pay five bucks a month.
00:44:03
◼
►
Everyone else keeps what they've got, but we can, we can extract more monies from our
00:44:07
◼
►
customers for a certain subset of the customers by giving them a little bit more and charging
00:44:11
◼
►
them a little bit more.
00:44:12
◼
►
It totally, if that's what TechSpender was trying to do, it doesn't seem like they did
00:44:16
◼
►
it well because what they did instead was took the blob that is their market, sliced
00:44:20
◼
►
off most of it, and then the remaining part is the people who are willing to pay $50 a
00:44:25
◼
►
year, right? If that's not what they intended, then you'll see
00:44:29
◼
►
scrambling a week from now, oh, we've changed our mind. And in
00:44:31
◼
►
fact, you can use text expand or sync with text expand or sync
00:44:34
◼
►
with Dropbox syncing, or you can use text expand or sync with no
00:44:36
◼
►
syncing for the old price or whatever, like, we'll see, like,
00:44:39
◼
►
I'm basing my, you know, looking at what this move as if this is
00:44:44
◼
►
intentional, because we all see the effects that it's having, I
00:44:46
◼
►
think they see the effects that it's having. If that isn't
00:44:48
◼
►
intentional, I think they will backpedal and say, we need to
00:44:52
◼
►
what we really meant to do was actually just get more money
00:44:55
◼
►
from the people who use it a lot, but not lose all those other customers because we
00:44:58
◼
►
totally need them.
00:44:59
◼
►
So we'll see if they change their mind based on the first week or two of sales and returns
00:45:04
◼
►
and complaints about it.
00:45:06
◼
►
But I think both of those strategies are viable.
00:45:10
◼
►
One of them makes Casey sad.
00:45:11
◼
►
Obviously if you're in the market that gets cut off by that strategy, it can be not good
00:45:16
◼
►
But in the end, from the company's perspective, it doesn't matter, except for perhaps long-term
00:45:21
◼
►
brand loyalty decisions.
00:45:22
◼
►
But again if you're going towards the high-end or enterprise the enterprise people may love you even more if you add all these super power
00:45:28
◼
►
User features like hell yeah, I'll pay $50 a year. You know this is how I make my living sure you know sign me up
00:45:33
◼
►
And especially if they they realize the after year that this means new versions come out regularly bugs get fixed. You know better or whatever
00:45:40
◼
►
But yeah, but as with all things you can't assume
00:45:44
◼
►
Omniscience on the part of either party here
00:45:48
◼
►
So it's possible that they just didn't anticipate
00:45:51
◼
►
the backlash, and I guess we'll find out
00:45:53
◼
►
in the next week's shows, or the week after.
00:45:56
◼
►
(upbeat music)
00:45:57
◼
►
- We are also sponsored tonight by Ring,
00:45:59
◼
►
the Ring Video Doorbell.
00:46:01
◼
►
Go to ring.com/ATP to see the Ring Video Doorbell.
00:46:04
◼
►
Now, video doorbells are pretty cool gadgets,
00:46:07
◼
►
and there's lots of reasons to have them
00:46:09
◼
►
for convenience, of course.
00:46:10
◼
►
You can see who's at your door, you can respond,
00:46:13
◼
►
and what's really cool is there's advanced
00:46:15
◼
►
motion detection here.
00:46:16
◼
►
this alerts you whether or not somebody actually rings the doorbell or not. If there's just
00:46:21
◼
►
like a person who walks up to your door, Ring will alert you about that too. It's like caller
00:46:25
◼
►
ID for your house. Like no matter whether somebody rings the doorbell or not, they alert
00:46:28
◼
►
you to it. Regardless of whether you're home or not, because it uses your phone in addition
00:46:33
◼
►
to your actual doorbell like ringer. So if you're not home, you still get notified and
00:46:38
◼
►
you can respond through two-way audio through the Ring doorbell. So you can pretend like
00:46:44
◼
►
your home, the advantages here are not only your convenience but also safety for your
00:46:48
◼
►
home and your possessions. Because Ring has found over 95% of home break-ins and burglaries
00:46:54
◼
►
happen during the day. And burglars usually start by ringing your doorbell to see if somebody's
00:46:59
◼
►
home. And of course if they're home, they generally move on, right? So with the Ring
00:47:03
◼
►
Video Doorbell, it can actually be a security benefit as well, not only showing you when
00:47:07
◼
►
people walk up to your door and having a record of that, but also it can help deter people.
00:47:12
◼
►
First of all, they know they're being watched
00:47:13
◼
►
once you respond, and they'll think you're home,
00:47:16
◼
►
and so they'll move on.
00:47:17
◼
►
So in addition to all the incredible convenience features
00:47:19
◼
►
of having a video doorbell,
00:47:21
◼
►
it's pretty great for home security as well.
00:47:22
◼
►
- You missed the essential feature of this.
00:47:25
◼
►
So we talked about home security,
00:47:26
◼
►
and if you're not in the house,
00:47:28
◼
►
the key one is for the ultra lazy.
00:47:31
◼
►
You can answer the door without getting up on your couch.
00:47:33
◼
►
You can send away solicitors,
00:47:35
◼
►
you can tell the delivery guy
00:47:36
◼
►
to just put it on the doorstep,
00:47:38
◼
►
you can see who it is,
00:47:41
◼
►
and decide to pretend you're not at home
00:47:42
◼
►
all while you just sit in your living room watching TV.
00:47:46
◼
►
- I love that that's what you took away from this.
00:47:48
◼
►
- Yes, this is a laziness enabler.
00:47:51
◼
►
You don't have to get up from your couch.
00:47:52
◼
►
You can just pick up your phone and go,
00:47:54
◼
►
no, I'm not answering that.
00:47:55
◼
►
Nope, sorry, I'm not interested
00:47:57
◼
►
in whatever you're selling, you know.
00:47:59
◼
►
- Oh, they're only robbing the Civic, it's fine.
00:48:03
◼
►
- So check it out today.
00:48:04
◼
►
It can work with your existing wiring for your doorbell,
00:48:06
◼
►
or they also have a model that uses a battery
00:48:08
◼
►
so you don't need to wire it.
00:48:09
◼
►
Go to ring.com/ATP.
00:48:12
◼
►
This is widely recognized as a great gadget
00:48:15
◼
►
by Time Magazine, USA Today, to name a few.
00:48:17
◼
►
Listeners get a free, extra shipping rate by using our code.
00:48:21
◼
►
So if you go to ring.com/ATP, you get free, fast shipping.
00:48:25
◼
►
Check it out today with the Ring Video Doorbell,
00:48:27
◼
►
You're Always Home.
00:48:28
◼
►
Go to ring.com/ATP now.
00:48:29
◼
►
Thanks a lot.
00:48:30
◼
►
- This actually segues into our next topic,
00:48:36
◼
►
slightly unbeknownst to Marco,
00:48:37
◼
►
although he's probably the one who wrote it there.
00:48:40
◼
►
'Cause I think this is a good time to bring this up,
00:48:42
◼
►
what with me having my iPod stolen out of my car.
00:48:44
◼
►
By the way, speaking of my iPod being stolen out of my car,
00:48:46
◼
►
one thing I forgot to add when you guys were talking about
00:48:48
◼
►
your various ways of trying to play
00:48:50
◼
►
folders sold of MP3s like it's 1994 in your cars.
00:48:54
◼
►
Why do neither one of you do what I had been doing,
00:48:59
◼
►
which is take one of the many old iOS devices
00:49:02
◼
►
that is no longer useful for anything
00:49:04
◼
►
and connect it through USB to your car
00:49:07
◼
►
and just leave it in there permanently,
00:49:08
◼
►
aside from the fact that you're afraid
00:49:09
◼
►
it's gonna get stolen out of your car.
00:49:10
◼
►
Setting that aside, if you do that,
00:49:13
◼
►
you will get all the things you talked about,
00:49:15
◼
►
like a real interface to playing things,
00:49:18
◼
►
hopefully reasonable album art,
00:49:19
◼
►
not worry about it accidentally doing things alphabetical.
00:49:23
◼
►
If you park your car close enough to get wifi
00:49:25
◼
►
from your house and your thing has iTunes
00:49:28
◼
►
in the cloud thing synced,
00:49:29
◼
►
you won't even have to bring the thing back in
00:49:31
◼
►
to put your new music on it.
00:49:32
◼
►
Your new music will just sync to it silently
00:49:34
◼
►
when you drive your car home
00:49:36
◼
►
and just let it sit there, right?
00:49:37
◼
►
That seems like it would solve all of your problems,
00:49:39
◼
►
assuming you had a place to store
00:49:41
◼
►
the connected iPod and all that.
00:49:43
◼
►
Is that not something you guys are interested in?
00:49:46
◼
►
- No, definitely not.
00:49:46
◼
►
I don't want another thing to manage.
00:49:48
◼
►
I would either use the stuff that's built into the car,
00:49:51
◼
►
like I was describing earlier,
00:49:52
◼
►
because I actually don't have a problem with it.
00:49:55
◼
►
Or if it's not already in my car,
00:49:57
◼
►
then I would just use Bluetooth on my phone.
00:49:59
◼
►
- But what are you managing though?
00:50:00
◼
►
'Cause like literally my thing is just,
00:50:02
◼
►
it's plugged in in a closed compartment
00:50:04
◼
►
and I never even see it.
00:50:05
◼
►
And like I said, now that I park within the wifi range
00:50:08
◼
►
of my house, it gets my new music on.
00:50:10
◼
►
If I buy a new song, that song is on my car,
00:50:13
◼
►
like the next time I drive it.
00:50:15
◼
►
There's nothing to manage.
00:50:16
◼
►
You don't need to recharge it
00:50:17
◼
►
because it charges when you drive your car.
00:50:19
◼
►
I get all the features that you would expect,
00:50:21
◼
►
like on my onscreen display showing the artist,
00:50:23
◼
►
the album, the whole thing.
00:50:23
◼
►
It even shows Unicode characters and the titles correctly.
00:50:26
◼
►
Like everything just works.
00:50:28
◼
►
And this is a Honda Accord.
00:50:29
◼
►
I'm assuming all your fancy BMWs and Teslas
00:50:31
◼
►
have the same ability.
00:50:32
◼
►
The only downside is you gotta have an iOS device
00:50:35
◼
►
which is way larger than the little tiny thumb drive
00:50:37
◼
►
that Marco has.
00:50:38
◼
►
- So it turns out Tesla actually does not support
00:50:41
◼
►
iPod USB interfaces.
00:50:44
◼
►
- Like they only support either USB folders,
00:50:46
◼
►
like USB file browsing, or Bluetooth.
00:50:49
◼
►
- They're preemptively spiting the Apple car.
00:50:53
◼
►
- Gonna compete with us, Apple?
00:50:54
◼
►
Rumored to be possibly in the future competing with us?
00:50:57
◼
►
No USB support for iPods.
00:50:59
◼
►
- I mean it also could be possible that like,
00:51:01
◼
►
either A, they haven't gotten to it yet
00:51:02
◼
►
because they're a little bit new,
00:51:04
◼
►
or B, they just probably think the future is Bluetooth anyway
00:51:09
◼
►
for that kind of role for most people.
00:51:11
◼
►
So it probably isn't worth the trouble
00:51:13
◼
►
to build that into a car that you started
00:51:16
◼
►
the media system platform only a few years ago.
00:51:18
◼
►
- Yeah, I mean, you could do also the same thing.
00:51:20
◼
►
My iPod that I have plugged in with the USB interface,
00:51:23
◼
►
I could leave it plugged into USB just for charging purposes
00:51:26
◼
►
and then have that connect through Bluetooth.
00:51:28
◼
►
- Like, anyway.
00:51:29
◼
►
Anyway, sorry for that derail.
00:51:30
◼
►
The topic that's related to the Ring doorbell is,
00:51:34
◼
►
quoting the show notes here, presumably written by Marco,
00:51:37
◼
►
"Marco's recent experiments in home automation,
00:51:39
◼
►
"surveillance, and general madness."
00:51:41
◼
►
I'm adding that last part.
00:51:43
◼
►
- Yeah, this was my grab bag of topics.
00:51:44
◼
►
If we ran out of time or ran out of topics today
00:51:47
◼
►
and we wanted something else.
00:51:48
◼
►
And you moved it up.
00:51:49
◼
►
- We didn't run out.
00:51:50
◼
►
I actually, I shuffled it upwards
00:51:51
◼
►
because I see your tweets about like,
00:51:54
◼
►
does anyone, can anyone tell me how to find
00:51:57
◼
►
a replacement for three-way light switches
00:52:00
◼
►
that will respond to voice commands to my Amazon Echo,
00:52:03
◼
►
and it sounds like you're really going off the deep end,
00:52:05
◼
►
as is your way, so I actually do wanna hear about it.
00:52:08
◼
►
- Okay, so let me preface this by saying,
00:52:11
◼
►
and I think I said this last week,
00:52:12
◼
►
that earlier in, I forget when it was,
00:52:17
◼
►
whether it was our Thanksgiving episode
00:52:18
◼
►
or whether it was after the new year,
00:52:19
◼
►
sometime we were in a positive mood,
00:52:23
◼
►
and we were expressing what we were gonna do
00:52:25
◼
►
in the future or this year or whatever,
00:52:26
◼
►
and one of the things I said was,
00:52:29
◼
►
Because I had been having trouble getting excited
00:52:33
◼
►
about a lot of stuff that's coming out of Apple recently,
00:52:35
◼
►
I decided that I wanted to start exploring more
00:52:40
◼
►
outside of the Apple ecosystem, just other stuff,
00:52:42
◼
►
other platforms, other exciting things happening
00:52:45
◼
►
in technology that aren't from Apple.
00:52:47
◼
►
And so the Tesla obviously was contributing
00:52:50
◼
►
to that quite a bit.
00:52:52
◼
►
But also, I've recently decided, you know what,
00:52:54
◼
►
let me explore past Siri, and everyone's saying
00:52:59
◼
►
the Amazon Echo is really good. So you know what, what the heck, I'll try. Our friends
00:53:03
◼
►
have had one for a while and whenever we're over there I always would think, "You know,
00:53:07
◼
►
that's kind of really awesome." You know, they just talk to it and it plays good music
00:53:11
◼
►
and the voice activation was really good and fast and always worked. That's kind of incredible.
00:53:20
◼
►
I'm going to try to not make a negative about Apple, but just being accustomed to Siri from
00:53:25
◼
►
Apple, the Amazon Echo by comparison is extremely fast to recognize what you're saying and
00:53:32
◼
►
can recognize it at a seemingly much higher success rate, for me at least, and in the
00:53:38
◼
►
environments I've seen. And even in conditions that you would think would be hostile, like
00:53:42
◼
►
while it's already loudly playing music in a loud room and you are 12 feet away, it
00:53:48
◼
►
can still recognize you most of the time. So that it's actually surprisingly good.
00:53:54
◼
►
if you've only ever used Siri as your voice control baseline,
00:53:59
◼
►
it really is surprisingly good.
00:54:01
◼
►
I would say in many ways substantially better.
00:54:04
◼
►
Probably not every way, but in the ways that I use it for,
00:54:06
◼
►
it is substantially better.
00:54:08
◼
►
Anyway, so we got an Echo, I decided,
00:54:10
◼
►
what else can this thing do?
00:54:11
◼
►
And it turns out, similar to what I discovered
00:54:14
◼
►
with USB sticks, when you're not in the Apple ecosystem,
00:54:18
◼
►
nothing costs any money.
00:54:21
◼
►
You can get a ridiculous number of smart objects
00:54:24
◼
►
and things with ports or wifi in them for almost nothing.
00:54:29
◼
►
So for instance, one of the things we just got
00:54:30
◼
►
was Amazon Dash Buttons, which it seems ridiculous.
00:54:35
◼
►
For $5, which becomes a $5 credit once you use it,
00:54:38
◼
►
so for basically free, you get a little button
00:54:42
◼
►
the size of a key chain with a sticky back
00:54:44
◼
►
and it comes assigned to a certain brand's products.
00:54:48
◼
►
things like Charmin for your toilet paper,
00:54:52
◼
►
or Bounty for paper towels, or razor blades, or whatever.
00:54:56
◼
►
There's just a button on it, there's no screen,
00:54:57
◼
►
it's just a single button.
00:54:58
◼
►
You stick this wherever you store these household objects,
00:55:01
◼
►
and when you are running low, you hit the button.
00:55:04
◼
►
It automatically orders more of that thing,
00:55:07
◼
►
whatever you've assigned it to order from that brand,
00:55:09
◼
►
from Amazon, and it comes in a couple days.
00:55:12
◼
►
So, I have one for paper towels,
00:55:15
◼
►
and I have one for toilet paper.
00:55:16
◼
►
- Wait, now let me interrupt you right there.
00:55:18
◼
►
Genuine genuine question. Yes, if there are like 84 different flavors of Charmin so to speak do you like specify?
00:55:25
◼
►
What one it is that you want?
00:55:27
◼
►
Yes, and you can you can go on the site and you can it with each - button
00:55:31
◼
►
There's like a little green thing. It looks like a banner ad and so you miss it the first few times
00:55:35
◼
►
But it's not a banner
00:55:37
◼
►
there's a little like green banner right below the item description on each - button and it says like, you know view what this button can
00:55:43
◼
►
order and you can click on that and that'll show you before you even buy it.
00:55:46
◼
►
You can see like make sure that it can order the thing you know the version of
00:55:49
◼
►
it that you use and then you set and when you set it up it's kind of crazy so
00:55:53
◼
►
it's it's this little button thing with no screen and with some kind of you know
00:55:59
◼
►
long-lasting battery and it's a permanently installed I think battery
00:56:02
◼
►
it's a Wi-Fi device so it has to be pretty hefty like lithium something
00:56:05
◼
►
rather battery in there. Anyway how do you pair the thing? Normally these things
00:56:09
◼
►
things, many of these smart objects, they will create their own little ad hoc Wi-Fi
00:56:14
◼
►
network. And so you launch the app on your phone, you join your phone to this stupid
00:56:17
◼
►
thing's Wi-Fi network, and then it auto-configs with the app. The app tells it your real Wi-Fi
00:56:23
◼
►
network's password, and then you click back over and it sucks. Huge, clunky process that
00:56:28
◼
►
I hope Apple gives some kind of method of improving with multi-mode Wi-Fi. I'm pretty
00:56:35
◼
►
I'm not sure if things like that exist.
00:56:36
◼
►
Anyway, those kind of like temporary ad hoc
00:56:39
◼
►
Wi-Fi networks don't take over your main Wi-Fi,
00:56:41
◼
►
whatever those are called, that camera things can use to.
00:56:44
◼
►
Anyway, please, Apple, add those things.
00:56:46
◼
►
Anyway, so the way that the Amazon dash buttons work
00:56:51
◼
►
is you place the button next to your phone
00:56:54
◼
►
and the phone emits static pulses out of the speaker
00:56:59
◼
►
via audio and the dash button has a little microphone in it
00:57:02
◼
►
and it just communicates via these static pulses
00:57:04
◼
►
the wifi information to the dash button.
00:57:07
◼
►
And then it's just like, all right, after a few seconds,
00:57:09
◼
►
you hear this little weird static, and then it's like,
00:57:10
◼
►
all right, done.
00:57:11
◼
►
Just so cool.
00:57:12
◼
►
And all this was for $5.
00:57:14
◼
►
I know this is all just shameless consumerism
00:57:17
◼
►
to honor the god of Amazon and make you buy
00:57:20
◼
►
even more things from Amazon, but that is still remarkable
00:57:23
◼
►
from a technology perspective that that works
00:57:24
◼
►
and costs nothing.
00:57:26
◼
►
That's kind of incredible.
00:57:27
◼
►
- I've really looked into recently,
00:57:31
◼
►
and I think this is just fascinating,
00:57:33
◼
►
Somebody has reverse engineered how all of this works, and there's actually a node module
00:57:41
◼
►
called Node Dash Button that you can use to have a Dash Button instead of calling, phoning
00:57:47
◼
►
home to Amazon, it just tells a node server running on the local network the button has
00:57:53
◼
►
been pressed.
00:57:54
◼
►
And so what I was really looking into, but I couldn't quite make it work, just the other
00:57:58
◼
►
side of it worked. I really wanted to buy a dash button and then stick it on like the bedside table
00:58:05
◼
►
and then have that call down to my internet connected garage door opener, my chamberlain myq,
00:58:12
◼
►
and if the garage door is open close it. So that my bedtime routine would just be to smack this
00:58:18
◼
►
dash button that has nothing to do with Amazon anymore and if the garage door is open it'll
00:58:22
◼
►
automatically close. I could never get it to work but I think it's really cool and fascinating that
00:58:27
◼
►
people took this $5 device and are now hacking it such that it can be used for something
00:58:32
◼
►
entirely different.
00:58:34
◼
►
And I just think that's fascinating and super cool.
00:58:36
◼
►
And it's for reasons like this that I really want to start figuring out how the hell Raspberry
00:58:41
◼
►
Pis work and what that's all about.
00:58:44
◼
►
My question about these buttons is, the reason I—when they came out with them, it was like,
00:58:48
◼
►
"Is this like a joke?
00:58:49
◼
►
Is this like an April Fool's joke?"
00:58:50
◼
►
You know, they came out with it last year or the year before or whatever.
00:58:53
◼
►
It just seems so ridiculous that you're gonna have talk about a you know, Alton Brown
00:58:57
◼
►
Answering unitasker you're you can't have a big shiny red button in your house and all it does is order paper towels
00:59:03
◼
►
My fear and why I'd never want to have that thing and it's like I'm the same type person who was always afraid to enable
00:59:08
◼
►
one-click ordering is I
00:59:09
◼
►
Know that I and everyone else in my house would forget when we have hit that stupid button who knows
00:59:14
◼
►
Oh, we need paper towels and I would click the button
00:59:16
◼
►
But I have no idea if someone who came into the same room and came to the same conclusion an hour ago
00:59:21
◼
►
And so now we have two orders of paper towels coming.
00:59:23
◼
►
I know someone else would have, you know.
00:59:24
◼
►
- It turns out they thought of that.
00:59:25
◼
►
Once somebody hits it, it doesn't accept an order
00:59:29
◼
►
for another one until that one has been delivered.
00:59:32
◼
►
- All right, that's pretty good.
00:59:33
◼
►
I mean, that's what I was thinking, like,
00:59:34
◼
►
well, rate limiting and debouncing,
00:59:36
◼
►
and here's the other secret thing of like,
00:59:39
◼
►
if it doesn't order it until it's delivered,
00:59:41
◼
►
but you have small children in your house,
00:59:42
◼
►
you figure out how these buttons work,
00:59:44
◼
►
they wait for a package to be delivered,
00:59:45
◼
►
and then they go around the house
00:59:46
◼
►
and press every other button.
00:59:47
◼
►
Like, just, you know, 'cause essentially it's allowing,
00:59:49
◼
►
It is allowing anyone with physical access to your home
00:59:52
◼
►
to spend your money.
00:59:54
◼
►
- Yeah, but it's not like ordering an iPod.
00:59:56
◼
►
Like it's, you know, well the iPods are pretty cheap.
00:59:57
◼
►
It's a bad example, but--
00:59:58
◼
►
- Yeah, they just wait for the iPod buttons,
01:00:00
◼
►
you know, the iPhone button.
01:00:01
◼
►
I mean, they'll put it in your house and in Gruber's house,
01:00:04
◼
►
and as soon as the keynote's over,
01:00:05
◼
►
you just slam your fist down on the button
01:00:06
◼
►
and it orders one for you.
01:00:10
◼
►
- That's the new method of trolling
01:00:11
◼
►
is you go visit somebody's house,
01:00:12
◼
►
and like when they're like, you know, in the other room,
01:00:14
◼
►
you go pushing all their buttons
01:00:15
◼
►
to order all their paper towels.
01:00:17
◼
►
- So these dash buttons,
01:00:18
◼
►
- So these are entirely independent of the Echo
01:00:20
◼
►
other than the fact that they're all made by Amazon
01:00:21
◼
►
and hook up to your Amazon account, right?
01:00:23
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah.
01:00:23
◼
►
So that was just totally an aside that, you know,
01:00:25
◼
►
I'm now like giving Amazon the benefit of the doubt
01:00:27
◼
►
and trying some of the stuff that they're doing
01:00:29
◼
►
that's all crazy.
01:00:30
◼
►
And after the Fire phone and after some of the really
01:00:34
◼
►
crappy Fire tablets, it's easy to write off
01:00:37
◼
►
Amazon's hardware efforts, but they're getting better.
01:00:40
◼
►
And they're kind of getting remarkably better
01:00:42
◼
►
at some things.
01:00:43
◼
►
and I think writing them off completely is not wise
01:00:48
◼
►
because they are gonna keep making a lot of duds, I'm sure,
01:00:51
◼
►
but not everything they make is a dud,
01:00:53
◼
►
and some of those they make is actually pretty cool.
01:00:55
◼
►
Anyway, so yeah, so I have some
01:00:59
◼
►
Belkin WeMo switched outlets
01:01:02
◼
►
that I'm using to switch some lamps.
01:01:04
◼
►
- Yeah, can you explain that to me?
01:01:05
◼
►
Because I understood that you were trying to make it
01:01:07
◼
►
so you could say words into the air and cause lights to go on
01:01:10
◼
►
but I don't know anything that connects those things
01:01:12
◼
►
other than the Amazon Echo is listening to you
01:01:14
◼
►
and then presumably what happens after that?
01:01:16
◼
►
The Amazon Echo hears you and what does it do?
01:01:18
◼
►
What does it communicate with?
01:01:19
◼
►
Is this like an open standard?
01:01:21
◼
►
Are they all Amazon products?
01:01:22
◼
►
I don't understand this world.
01:01:23
◼
►
- Honestly, I don't know that much about it.
01:01:25
◼
►
I haven't looked that much into it.
01:01:27
◼
►
You know, you go on Amazon's site and it tells you
01:01:28
◼
►
like here's all the things that work with the Echo.
01:01:32
◼
►
Some of the things require like a smart devices hub.
01:01:34
◼
►
Some of them don't.
01:01:35
◼
►
I've been only getting the ones that don't so far
01:01:37
◼
►
just 'cause why not?
01:01:38
◼
►
I bought a couple of Wemo switched outlets
01:01:40
◼
►
because the better way to do lighting is,
01:01:43
◼
►
if you can swing it, to use Wi-Fi light bulbs,
01:01:46
◼
►
like LIFX or Philips Hue, that kind of thing.
01:01:49
◼
►
I haven't used any of those yet
01:01:50
◼
►
because the LIFX bulbs are too large
01:01:53
◼
►
to fit into the lamps in question,
01:01:56
◼
►
and the Philips Hue bulbs are not bright enough.
01:01:59
◼
►
I like nice bright bulbs, and even LEDs,
01:02:01
◼
►
I like to get the ones that are like the 100 watt equivalent
01:02:04
◼
►
rather than the more common ones
01:02:05
◼
►
that are more like a 60 watt equivalent.
01:02:07
◼
►
So they're just not bright enough.
01:02:08
◼
►
Anyway, so the way I do this is I keep my fancy bulbs
01:02:12
◼
►
and I just switch the outlets the Lancer plugged into.
01:02:14
◼
►
Again, I don't know how any other system works,
01:02:15
◼
►
but the way Belkin's Wemo thing works
01:02:18
◼
►
is all just local Wi-Fi.
01:02:20
◼
►
And there's probably a way to connect to a web service.
01:02:22
◼
►
I don't really care.
01:02:24
◼
►
- But right now I'm doing it on local Wi-Fi only.
01:02:26
◼
►
So you use their app to configure the things,
01:02:29
◼
►
using the stupid join the Wi-Fi network thing.
01:02:31
◼
►
But then once it's configured,
01:02:33
◼
►
the Echo knows how to talk to it directly.
01:02:34
◼
►
So the Echo just has support for whatever local protocol
01:02:37
◼
►
that uses over the local wifi network.
01:02:39
◼
►
And then you go into the Alexa app to configure the Echo,
01:02:42
◼
►
it shows all your compatible devices
01:02:44
◼
►
and you can create groups.
01:02:46
◼
►
So you can say like, Alexa, turn off all lamps.
01:02:48
◼
►
And it just says, okay, and turns them all off.
01:02:51
◼
►
And that's it.
01:02:52
◼
►
Sorry for anybody whose lights I guess turned off.
01:02:54
◼
►
It's really cool.
01:02:55
◼
►
Like, what's really cool about it is that it's fast enough
01:02:59
◼
►
and it works enough of the time
01:03:01
◼
►
that it's actually convenient.
01:03:03
◼
►
So part of my nightly routine,
01:03:04
◼
►
you know, you're saying your garage
01:03:05
◼
►
like trying to like eliminate steps from your nightly routine. Part of my nightly routine
01:03:10
◼
►
is you know we don't watch TV for the night or whatever so I go around locking all the
01:03:14
◼
►
doors, turning off all the lights, taking hops out you know one last time in the back
01:03:19
◼
►
yard and more lights go on and off, go on and off, and then come in lock, lock, lock.
01:03:23
◼
►
Any step I can remove from that process will save me like 15 seconds a day. And yeah, it's
01:03:28
◼
►
stupid to be talking about 15 seconds a day. You know this is obviously a position of like
01:03:32
◼
►
like first world privilege here, but that's convenient.
01:03:35
◼
►
And when everything is so cheap,
01:03:37
◼
►
it's actually kind of compelling.
01:03:39
◼
►
I've effectively cut 30 seconds out of my nightly routine
01:03:43
◼
►
just by automating some light switches
01:03:44
◼
►
and being able to tell the Echo,
01:03:46
◼
►
turn everything off at once.
01:03:48
◼
►
- Will the Amazon Echo tell my children 8,000 times
01:03:50
◼
►
to brush their teeth and get their pajamas on?
01:03:53
◼
►
'Cause maybe I'll just say, "Amazon Echo,
01:03:55
◼
►
"do the bedtime routine."
01:03:56
◼
►
And then Amazon Echo will say,
01:03:58
◼
►
"Do you guys have your pajamas on yet?
01:03:59
◼
►
"Or have you brushed your teeth?
01:04:01
◼
►
Have you brushed your teeth yet?
01:04:02
◼
►
Have you had your pajamas on?
01:04:03
◼
►
And you find them in their room an hour later
01:04:05
◼
►
playing with Lego without their pajamas on?
01:04:06
◼
►
Have you put your pajamas on?
01:04:07
◼
►
Have you brushed your teeth?
01:04:09
◼
►
That's the service I need.
01:04:10
◼
►
- You could probably bring that up with,
01:04:11
◼
►
you know, I have TCT or something.
01:04:13
◼
►
I bet you could.
01:04:14
◼
►
I bet there's something like that.
01:04:15
◼
►
I mean, the thing is, like, and this is why
01:04:18
◼
►
I really am enjoying the Echo and why I do worry
01:04:22
◼
►
for Apple's presence or lack thereof in this market.
01:04:25
◼
►
In order to make this market succeed, you know,
01:04:27
◼
►
in order, like, what makes the Echo so good
01:04:30
◼
►
is a combination of having what seems to be a pretty awesome, solid, big data web service
01:04:37
◼
►
behind it, which is not something Apple's good at.
01:04:40
◼
►
Apple can do things like keeping notifications running, keeping iMessage running.
01:04:44
◼
►
When it comes to a kind of web service that uses big data and AI type stuff, Apple is
01:04:50
◼
►
not as competitive as other entrants in the market.
01:04:54
◼
►
And it seems, maybe that will change over time, but they're just not there and they've
01:04:58
◼
►
they've been not there for so long after it began to matter, that it does seem like
01:05:03
◼
►
they're not capable of it, or at least they don't prioritize it.
01:05:06
◼
►
It seems like this is the kind of problem that other companies, Google, Facebook, Amazon,
01:05:12
◼
►
just do big data services better than Apple does. And what also makes this so powerful
01:05:18
◼
►
is all this integration with third-party stuff. And so Apple has HomeKit, but HomeKit is a
01:05:23
◼
►
much less successful program, I think, than what it needs to be. Whereas the Echo doesn't
01:05:29
◼
►
really care. The Echo is kind of all inclusive. It'll work with everything. They talked briefly
01:05:33
◼
►
about this on Connected this week on Relay. They were saying that there was some kind
01:05:38
◼
►
of hardware requirement for HomeKit devices and that Belkin's kind of balking at it.
01:05:43
◼
►
Amazon doesn't really care. Amazon works with everybody. Siri launched in 2011. It
01:05:47
◼
►
2016, there is still no Siri API. There is no way for third parties to integrate with
01:05:54
◼
►
Siri at all. The Echo comes out like not that long ago, what, like a year ago, last June
01:05:59
◼
►
or something, so almost a year ago. It is already full of third party integrations.
01:06:05
◼
►
There's an API for a lot of what it can do, not everything. There's still no music API,
01:06:09
◼
►
which means I can't make overcast for it yet, but I'm hoping there will be soon. So it has,
01:06:14
◼
►
But it has tons of integration
01:06:17
◼
►
with all these third-party things.
01:06:18
◼
►
Anybody can go in and make a speech response API to it.
01:06:22
◼
►
And it integrates with all this different hardware
01:06:24
◼
►
from all these different vendors.
01:06:26
◼
►
Amazon, I feel like, they're in a better position
01:06:30
◼
►
than Apple is to really take over this kind of thing,
01:06:34
◼
►
'cause this is so dependent on both
01:06:36
◼
►
the big data web service
01:06:38
◼
►
and also tons of third-party integration.
01:06:41
◼
►
- Yeah, Apple had the foresight to purchase
01:06:44
◼
►
Siri research project company or whatever they were like that they that they understood very early on
01:06:48
◼
►
that something like this could add value to their products and you know i forgot when they bought
01:06:54
◼
►
them but obviously it was before it was actually released to the public when released to the public
01:06:57
◼
►
with the exception of google like they i don't know if they were in the lead next to google but
01:07:03
◼
►
they were at the very least seemingly neck and neck with google in terms of we recognize this
01:07:07
◼
►
is going to be important thing for the future and maybe our thing is kind of crappy when it launches
01:07:10
◼
►
because Siri certainly was. But at least, you know, at least we're not ignoring this market.
01:07:16
◼
►
Like, in fact, we're out ahead of a lot of our competitors. But like Marco said,
01:07:19
◼
►
like, and then what happened? It was like the Mac Pro all over again. Well, we'll make Siri better,
01:07:24
◼
►
and Siri certainly hasn't gotten better. But there's no reason Apple couldn't have done
01:07:29
◼
►
something like Amazon Echo years and years ago, because they had like their and Google
01:07:33
◼
►
has been expanding Google now and, you know, to make it much more sophisticated and complicated
01:07:39
◼
►
in Siri and we even have like just random apps like this third-party hound application that
01:07:43
◼
►
Merlin was raving about a little while ago like like lots of other companies are you know it's
01:07:48
◼
►
not early days anymore everyone is like oh some kind of intelligent agency you can talk to is
01:07:52
◼
►
basically like speed recognition has kind of crossed a vaguely good enough barrier and then
01:07:57
◼
►
understanding of speech and breaking it down into meaning and figuring out what you mean not just
01:08:00
◼
►
like translating into text and doing a google search or whatever you know that's getting more
01:08:04
◼
►
sophisticated and it just takes a little bit more stuff to put it together into ways that allow like
01:08:10
◼
►
the community essentially the community of like nerds and hackers to come up with more uses for
01:08:14
◼
►
this thing so like that was on echo and all that stuff definitely seems like much more you know
01:08:18
◼
►
nerd uh you know hacker friendly if someone who wants to just toy with it and figure out what
01:08:23
◼
►
kind of cool things to do with it i'm like sure whatever build whatever on you want it's a pretty
01:08:27
◼
►
open protocol you can reverse engineer it like just going up because they don't know like you
01:08:31
◼
►
their approach is like, let's do stuff
01:08:32
◼
►
and see what sticks, right?
01:08:34
◼
►
Apple is just totally absent in this market.
01:08:36
◼
►
And you could say that makes sense
01:08:37
◼
►
'cause Apple doesn't make sort of like tinker products
01:08:39
◼
►
for people who just wanna hack on things.
01:08:41
◼
►
And if Apple wanted to have this product,
01:08:43
◼
►
it would be like, no, no, no,
01:08:44
◼
►
it has to be beautiful and elegant and integrated
01:08:46
◼
►
and blah, blah, blah.
01:08:47
◼
►
But if the end result is they just aren't in the market
01:08:49
◼
►
at all or know what, they do HomeKit
01:08:51
◼
►
and they say, we have these strict requirements
01:08:52
◼
►
'cause your products must meet these stringent standards
01:08:55
◼
►
that we as Apple and blah, blah.
01:08:56
◼
►
In the meantime, Amazon is just like running off with it
01:08:59
◼
►
and they're gonna wake up one day and say,
01:09:01
◼
►
you know, we could have had a substantial chunk
01:09:04
◼
►
of that market and we just waited too long for perfection
01:09:08
◼
►
and didn't, you know, just start releasing and iterating.
01:09:10
◼
►
Again, that's not the Apple way to do it,
01:09:12
◼
►
but I feel like in many other, Siri was like that.
01:09:15
◼
►
It was like, Siri's not gonna be perfect initially,
01:09:17
◼
►
but it's important for us to get this out there
01:09:18
◼
►
because we feel like in the future,
01:09:20
◼
►
you telling your phone to do something
01:09:22
◼
►
is a feature that we need to have.
01:09:23
◼
►
And they were right about that.
01:09:24
◼
►
Every cell phone you buy now has some feature
01:09:26
◼
►
where you can speak to it and have it do something,
01:09:28
◼
►
either while you're driving to tell it to play a song,
01:09:31
◼
►
or if you're just lazy and don't wanna go find an icon
01:09:33
◼
►
and tap something, just run a search or whatever.
01:09:35
◼
►
They all have that, and Apple recognize that.
01:09:38
◼
►
Not saying they have to be in the Amazon Echo market,
01:09:41
◼
►
but I'm just thinking like VR,
01:09:42
◼
►
where we all assume Apple's secretly doing things
01:09:44
◼
►
behind the scenes, I hope they don't stay secret
01:09:46
◼
►
for too long either.
01:09:46
◼
►
If VR turns out not to be a bust,
01:09:48
◼
►
Apple doesn't wanna just be sitting there waiting
01:09:51
◼
►
for their perfect entry in that market either.
01:09:53
◼
►
And I think the watch, as much as we've all talked about it
01:09:57
◼
►
and had complaints about it,
01:09:58
◼
►
I think it was important for Apple to do a watch,
01:10:01
◼
►
even if the watch they did has problems,
01:10:03
◼
►
rather than saying,
01:10:05
◼
►
we're not entirely sure we figured out
01:10:06
◼
►
every aspect of what makes a watch good.
01:10:08
◼
►
Like the only way you're gonna figure out
01:10:09
◼
►
is to make a product, right?
01:10:10
◼
►
That's, and you can't hold back from it.
01:10:13
◼
►
And hell, if they're making a freaking car,
01:10:15
◼
►
surely they can make an Amazon Echo type competitor.
01:10:19
◼
►
And I think they could do a reasonably good job for it,
01:10:22
◼
►
if only because it would force them,
01:10:23
◼
►
like Morgan was saying,
01:10:24
◼
►
force them to work on their back ends more,
01:10:26
◼
►
as Siri has, like they have all those presentations
01:10:28
◼
►
of like, look, we're using these open source,
01:10:30
◼
►
you know, data processing backends for Siri
01:10:33
◼
►
and we're all impressed by it
01:10:34
◼
►
and we're talking at conferences,
01:10:35
◼
►
like Siri forced them to do that
01:10:37
◼
►
because it wasn't simple enough
01:10:39
◼
►
to use whatever they were using before.
01:10:40
◼
►
It was complicated.
01:10:42
◼
►
What is it, Mesos, someone just wrote in the chat room?
01:10:44
◼
►
Having a product like Siri
01:10:46
◼
►
forces them to get better at that stuff.
01:10:48
◼
►
Having a product like Amazon Echo
01:10:49
◼
►
would also force them to get better at this type of thing
01:10:52
◼
►
as HomeKit should be forcing them to as well.
01:10:53
◼
►
But if they're going into the same situation where they're making very onerous demands
01:10:59
◼
►
of the third parties and the result is few third party products, they're not winning
01:11:05
◼
►
that battle.
01:11:06
◼
►
So it's kind of disappointing.
01:11:09
◼
►
And with Amazon, their challenge is always going to be, it's easy to do the beginning
01:11:14
◼
►
We're just very open and we'll try lots of things, lots of people go in.
01:11:16
◼
►
How do you develop it?
01:11:17
◼
►
I've been waiting personally.
01:11:18
◼
►
I don't know if enough people who have an Echo that I've been like, "I'm kind of interested
01:11:22
◼
►
would like to wait for the Echo 2 to come out, the one that is nicer and smaller and
01:11:26
◼
►
faster and more reliable and has more features.
01:11:28
◼
►
I know they came out with that little tiny one that doesn't have the speakers in it and
01:11:30
◼
►
stuff like that, but I want the full-fledged Echo version 2.
01:11:34
◼
►
If Amazon doesn't make an Echo version 2 for three years, they will be again pulling a
01:11:40
◼
►
It's like, "We're right there.
01:11:42
◼
►
Why did you stop?"
01:11:43
◼
►
I don't think they will.
01:11:44
◼
►
I think they will continue to iterate, just look at how many freaking Kindles they've
01:11:47
◼
►
come out with.
01:11:48
◼
►
And there's about to be another one.
01:11:49
◼
►
They're hyping up next week.
01:11:50
◼
►
I have more kindles to mail you and they're hyping up next week. They're gonna make another one. That's even thinner. Awesome
01:11:56
◼
►
Yeah, and we have no idea how many kindles they've ever sold because they never put numbers on their graphs
01:12:00
◼
►
But they continue to plug away at that
01:12:02
◼
►
So I fully believe that Amazon will continue to plug away at the echo
01:12:05
◼
►
If only because it just has such a natural synergy of like make it easier for people to give us money
01:12:09
◼
►
Alright thumbs up. This is a good product for Amazon to make especially since the hardware costs don't seem that big
01:12:14
◼
►
it's like it's a speaker with Wi-Fi and
01:12:18
◼
►
a whole bunch of microphones and a little bit of software.
01:12:21
◼
►
They'll make that up the first year alone
01:12:24
◼
►
with people accidentally ordering things
01:12:27
◼
►
by saying Alexa buy paper towels
01:12:29
◼
►
or whatever your kids are saying
01:12:30
◼
►
when you're not in the room.
01:12:32
◼
►
Anyway, I'm enjoying this thing.
01:12:34
◼
►
It's not perfect.
01:12:35
◼
►
There's lots of things about it that are not perfect,
01:12:37
◼
►
but overall, it's really cool.
01:12:40
◼
►
I would say if you're on the fence,
01:12:42
◼
►
if you've been tempted by the Echo,
01:12:44
◼
►
if you're on the fence, just get it.
01:12:46
◼
►
Just order it now.
01:12:47
◼
►
You won't regret, if you're already thinking
01:12:50
◼
►
you might enjoy it, you probably will enjoy it
01:12:52
◼
►
and you should just try it.
01:12:53
◼
►
'Cause it really is quite good.
01:12:55
◼
►
- What does Adam say to Alexa?
01:12:57
◼
►
- He gets very mad that she doesn't recognize him.
01:13:01
◼
►
- He doesn't enunciate well enough that--
01:13:03
◼
►
- Yeah, basically.
01:13:05
◼
►
- You ask her to define words, multiply numbers,
01:13:07
◼
►
play music, convert units of measurement when cooking,
01:13:11
◼
►
so many things you could do.
01:13:12
◼
►
- Setting timers by voice while cooking is so useful.
01:13:16
◼
►
Like that's, it always drew me nuts with the Apple Watch.
01:13:18
◼
►
It was so slow and somewhat unreliable to do that,
01:13:22
◼
►
because when that works, it's so useful,
01:13:24
◼
►
it just doesn't work enough with the Apple stuff.
01:13:26
◼
►
But it works all the time with the Amazon thing.
01:13:28
◼
►
- Or you have to push a button, like activate Siri.
01:13:30
◼
►
And if you don't have Hey Siri enabled,
01:13:32
◼
►
you basically have to take your dirty cooking fingers
01:13:35
◼
►
and touch some iOS device and then have it go bloop bloop
01:13:38
◼
►
and figure out, do I talk before the bloop,
01:13:40
◼
►
or does it not, do I have to wait for the bloop?
01:13:43
◼
►
And then you say, set a timer for five minutes,
01:13:45
◼
►
and then you wait and then you see
01:13:47
◼
►
and then sometimes it misunderstands you.
01:13:49
◼
►
It seems to me from all the people I know who have echoes
01:13:51
◼
►
that you can basically just yell it into the air
01:13:53
◼
►
with a reasonable expectation that it's gonna get you
01:13:55
◼
►
and if it doesn't, you yell it again
01:13:56
◼
►
and you're not ever waiting for a loop.
01:13:59
◼
►
And the echo plugs in, right?
01:14:00
◼
►
It's not just battery powered?
01:14:01
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah.
01:14:02
◼
►
They have one that's battery powered
01:14:03
◼
►
but the one that's battery powered is the tap
01:14:06
◼
►
and that one doesn't listen all the time.
01:14:07
◼
►
You have to push it to listen.
01:14:09
◼
►
- Yeah, that's not good.
01:14:10
◼
►
- So if you wanna be listening all the time,
01:14:11
◼
►
you need to plug it in.
01:14:12
◼
►
- Is that the one I'm thinking of?
01:14:14
◼
►
- I thought the one I was thinking of is like,
01:14:16
◼
►
is a very short cylinder, it doesn't have,
01:14:18
◼
►
it doesn't double as basically a Bluetooth speaker.
01:14:20
◼
►
- That's the Dot.
01:14:22
◼
►
- Great names, I remember that.
01:14:23
◼
►
- The Dot does also plug in, and is always listening.
01:14:26
◼
►
The Dot is basically just like the Big Echo,
01:14:28
◼
►
but without the Big Speaker, so it sounds substantially
01:14:31
◼
►
worse if you're playing music through it.
01:14:32
◼
►
And the Big Echo, like, as a speaker,
01:14:35
◼
►
it's also a Bluetooth speaker, as a speaker,
01:14:38
◼
►
it is merely decent, it is not an amazing speaker.
01:14:41
◼
►
Like I have a Sonos Play One right next to it,
01:14:44
◼
►
and the Play One is a way better speaker, by a mile.
01:14:48
◼
►
You know, for like music quality, volume, tone,
01:14:51
◼
►
you know, the Sonos system has way better speakers.
01:14:54
◼
►
But the Amazon Echo is really convenient,
01:14:57
◼
►
and that often wins.
01:15:00
◼
►
(piano music)
01:15:01
◼
►
- Our final sponsor tonight is FreshBooks.
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Go to freshbooks.com/atp, and you can see for yourself
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This means there's a lot more smiling
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So invoicing is one of the biggest things they're known for.
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It's really the core of their product.
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in literally almost no effort from you,
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receipt tracking system,
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'cause FreshBooks includes that too.
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They even have a mobile app where you can take pictures
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and it automatically categorizes them,
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So you can just take the picture,
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forget about it, move on with your life.
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You can of course also enter things into their interface.
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They even have a connection to your bank
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if you wanna give them your bank login details.
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Just like a lot of popular accounting software
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that can automatically download transactions,
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FreshBooks can do that too,
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FreshBooks also offers, for your invoices, online payment.
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Your clients can pay you online,
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In fact, they even have a cool thing
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that I think really broadens the appeal here.
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You can even, if you do something in person,
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let's say you're an electrician,
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they have a credit card reader
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It integrates completely with their system,
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with your FreshBooks invoices.
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They also have overdue payment reminders.
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So if people, let's say people take a long time
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to pay their invoices, which is often the case
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in the invoicing world, they can automatically
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help send kind of robotic reminders
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so that you don't really have to have
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these awkward conversations and keep bugging people.
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It does it on your behalf, and you can customize
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what the message says and when they're sent and everything.
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It's really nice to avoid those awkward conversations
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Once again, freshbooks.com/ATP.
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◼
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Thanks a lot to FreshBooks.
01:17:39
◼
►
(guitar strum)
01:17:40
◼
►
- Starting to think about why Apple,
01:17:42
◼
►
why Apple is the way it is about third party integrations.
01:17:46
◼
►
It's not as if Apple says,
01:17:48
◼
►
"Oh, we have to do everything ourselves."
01:17:49
◼
►
Almost everything Apple does that has a reasonable place
01:17:52
◼
►
for third parties to be part of it,
01:17:55
◼
►
there is a place for it to do it.
01:17:57
◼
►
Like their APIs, they make APIs for third parties
01:18:00
◼
►
to write software for their platforms.
01:18:03
◼
►
They have programs for hardware vendors to make accessories
01:18:06
◼
►
for all their various hardware devices.
01:18:08
◼
►
They have, especially for hardware,
01:18:09
◼
►
they have compliance programs.
01:18:10
◼
►
You have to fulfill these requirements in terms of size
01:18:13
◼
►
and voltage and reliability and you know, whatever.
01:18:15
◼
►
Like all sensible things, especially in the hardware realm,
01:18:19
◼
►
there's no shortage of accessories for iOS devices.
01:18:21
◼
►
You can buy, even for the watches, you can buy watch bands,
01:18:24
◼
►
you can buy cases for your iOS devices,
01:18:25
◼
►
you can buy docs for them, keyboards,
01:18:28
◼
►
like everything that Apple sells for its devices,
01:18:31
◼
►
there's tons of choices for third parties.
01:18:33
◼
►
So it seems like they know how to foster
01:18:37
◼
►
an open ecosystem of third parties
01:18:39
◼
►
selling things for their products.
01:18:42
◼
►
And in software, on the application front,
01:18:44
◼
►
they're okay at that.
01:18:46
◼
►
We've talked about the App Store
01:18:47
◼
►
and the problems it might have,
01:18:48
◼
►
but it's not as if people have the impression
01:18:50
◼
►
that if you buy an Apple product,
01:18:51
◼
►
you're stuck with Apple software.
01:18:52
◼
►
They know lots of people make software,
01:18:54
◼
►
especially for iOS devices.
01:18:56
◼
►
And most of those people are not Apple that make them.
01:18:58
◼
►
And yet, for things like this, where they're connecting to web services, or they're sending
01:19:07
◼
►
you to someone else's store, or they're integrating with someone else's line of products for your
01:19:12
◼
►
home, that seems to be like Apple's kryptonite.
01:19:17
◼
►
Anything having to do with the web, certainly.
01:19:19
◼
►
Anything having to do with money, like giving other people money or becoming their customer.
01:19:24
◼
►
seem to be areas that Apple is not willing to sort of open the doors and make connections.
01:19:30
◼
►
And they're precisely the area that you would want anything having to do with home automation
01:19:35
◼
►
to connect. Because imagine if Apple sold something like this, but you couldn't use it
01:19:40
◼
►
to buy things from Amazon. Apple's not a retailer of physical goods other than its own products.
01:19:45
◼
►
Like it's not technically a competitor to Amazon in this way, but can you imagine Apple
01:19:53
◼
►
selling products and say oh and doing like a keynote demo and say look how easy it is for me
01:19:57
◼
►
to order new paper towels because they don't care about ordering paper towels. Their customers have
01:20:01
◼
►
to order paper towels but they're not going to endorse Amazon unless they can extract some money
01:20:06
◼
►
or some deal from Amazon or whatever. But that would be a perfect third-party integration. If
01:20:12
◼
►
they made a product like this and made an open API surely a third party would make an integration for
01:20:17
◼
►
their favorite brand of you know wi-fi enabled light bulbs or their favorite retailer or
01:20:23
◼
►
or a Raspberry Pi thing, or an integration with the Ring doorbell that we just talked
01:20:26
◼
►
about or whatever.
01:20:27
◼
►
Those are the things that you have to do if you're going to try to break open this market
01:20:32
◼
►
and be like this sort of de facto central speaking into the air in the middle of my
01:20:36
◼
►
house hub for home automation.
01:20:39
◼
►
And it just seems like Apple and even companies like Nest still have the idea of like, "No,
01:20:42
◼
►
we're going to own the whole freaking house and we're going to tightly control our hardware
01:20:45
◼
►
vendors and they're going to comply to our specifications."
01:20:47
◼
►
And in the meantime, Amazon using the old PC strategy of just, "We're completely open,
01:20:51
◼
►
do whatever the hell you want, and we'll just look at it a couple years later and see
01:20:55
◼
►
what worked so far is the only thing that has had any measure of success, even though
01:21:01
◼
►
it's a very small measure of success just among nerds who are willing to pay $180 to
01:21:05
◼
►
have a weird black cylinder of the house so that they can ask how to spell words.
01:21:10
◼
►
Apple has always had this part of its corporate personality reflected originally by Steve
01:21:16
◼
►
and by a lot of the people who are still there, I think,
01:21:19
◼
►
and who are still making important decisions.
01:21:22
◼
►
They've always had these parts of their personality
01:21:25
◼
►
where sometimes a little bit too much greed shows
01:21:29
◼
►
and sometimes a little bit too control freaky shows,
01:21:34
◼
►
if that makes sense.
01:21:35
◼
►
And that often holds these things back.
01:21:38
◼
►
So for instance, the 30% in-app purchase rule on iOS apps,
01:21:44
◼
►
One of the reasons why you can't buy Amazon books
01:21:48
◼
►
in the Kindle app for iOS is this rule
01:21:50
◼
►
that Apple won't let Amazon sell them directly
01:21:52
◼
►
without using an app purchase,
01:21:54
◼
►
and if you use an app purchase, Apple takes 30%.
01:21:56
◼
►
And that is a very, very high commission to take on sales
01:22:01
◼
►
that you're kind of not much of a part of.
01:22:04
◼
►
But they do it, and it works, and it's the only game in town
01:22:07
◼
►
and if you wanna be on this platform,
01:22:08
◼
►
which really matters a lot,
01:22:09
◼
►
you basically have to play by those rules
01:22:11
◼
►
or avoid them like Amazon does
01:22:12
◼
►
and just don't sell anything there.
01:22:14
◼
►
And that kind of attitude goes way beyond that rule.
01:22:18
◼
►
That kind of attitude also extends to things
01:22:20
◼
►
like 16 gig devices, the price hike in the iPad cases.
01:22:25
◼
►
Apple has some greed there.
01:22:28
◼
►
And depending on our discussion earlier
01:22:32
◼
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about whether you consider that offensive or not,
01:22:35
◼
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or whether it's just business,
01:22:37
◼
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but they do oftentimes prioritize profitability of things
01:22:42
◼
►
over making everyone else happy.
01:22:45
◼
►
And that is often good business,
01:22:46
◼
►
so I can't really fault them for that.
01:22:48
◼
►
But it does hold back certain kinds of advancements
01:22:50
◼
►
from the products.
01:22:51
◼
►
- Or they're going for an ideal.
01:22:53
◼
►
Like sometimes they have a vision in their mind
01:22:55
◼
►
of how it's gonna look, and third parties
01:22:56
◼
►
will just screw up that vision with the crap that they add.
01:22:59
◼
►
- Right, and so that's the other side of it,
01:23:00
◼
►
is the controlling part of it,
01:23:02
◼
►
where Apple's very opinionated in a lot of ways,
01:23:06
◼
►
and very controlling.
01:23:08
◼
►
So for instance, one of the more recent dust ups
01:23:13
◼
►
around Apple's decision making was in the early betas
01:23:17
◼
►
of 9.3, they stopped letting the Apple Pencil
01:23:21
◼
►
navigate the entire iPad interface.
01:23:23
◼
►
So the Apple Pencil came out in November or whatever
01:23:25
◼
►
with the iPad Pro, it could navigate the whole interface
01:23:27
◼
►
for its first few months, and then in the early betas
01:23:31
◼
►
of 9.3, they removed that ability.
01:23:34
◼
►
And it was from, the official PR statement on it
01:23:37
◼
►
was kind of BSE, what we've heard from people who are better informed on the matter is that
01:23:43
◼
►
this was actually an intentional decision because it was not being used the way they
01:23:46
◼
►
thought it should be used. They didn't want it to be used to navigate the whole interface.
01:23:49
◼
►
They wanted it to only be used for like artistic purposes or drawing or whatever. It was just
01:23:55
◼
►
being used in a way that Apple didn't foresee and didn't think was proper but wasn't really
01:24:00
◼
►
hurting anything. And Apple almost removed that ability. And it was only, I think, only
01:24:06
◼
►
by a decent amount of public shaming and outcry over this during the beta period that reversed
01:24:14
◼
►
their decision. They were being a little too overreaching in their control, you know, their
01:24:19
◼
►
desire for control.
01:24:20
◼
►
I don't know if that's so true though, because there was no obvious reason for them to get
01:24:25
◼
►
rid of it today, but what if something's coming in the future that would conflict with this
01:24:30
◼
►
the pencil is equivalent to your finger approach that Mike and Gray love so much.
01:24:36
◼
►
You know, it certainly seems to me like they should have some sort of happy medium,
01:24:41
◼
►
like there should be a switchboard or something like that, but I think it's a little bit bold of
01:24:49
◼
►
us to assume they're doing it just to be jerks. They very well could be that they're doing it
01:24:53
◼
►
to set themselves up for something in the future. Well, it might not even, you know,
01:24:57
◼
►
I don't want to say that they're being jerks necessarily, it's that they're being controlling.
01:25:01
◼
►
We see a lot of this with App Review too, and whenever there's an App Review controversy,
01:25:07
◼
►
a lot of times it's because Apple doesn't want us to do things a certain way, like what
01:25:14
◼
►
happened with the disaster of various rejections around today widgets with calculators and
01:25:19
◼
►
drafts and everything else, where like PCALC in today's view, and it's like, "No, well
01:25:24
◼
►
you can't have buttons there,
01:25:26
◼
►
'cause we don't want people to do calculations
01:25:28
◼
►
or to do work in today view.
01:25:30
◼
►
I was like, okay, that's kind of weird.
01:25:32
◼
►
And maybe there might have been a technical reason for that,
01:25:35
◼
►
but it seemed, from Apple's statements
01:25:38
◼
►
to the various developers who were
01:25:39
◼
►
affected by those things, it didn't seem like
01:25:41
◼
►
it was a technical limitation,
01:25:42
◼
►
it seemed like it was just an ideological thing,
01:25:44
◼
►
like no, this is not right,
01:25:45
◼
►
they should be using your app for this.
01:25:47
◼
►
All this is just to say,
01:25:48
◼
►
there are these areas in the company
01:25:52
◼
►
that still show these negative personality traits
01:25:56
◼
►
that I think do hold them back in some ways.
01:25:59
◼
►
And sometimes it's the right move,
01:26:01
◼
►
but a lot of times it's not.
01:26:03
◼
►
Sometimes it leads to better products,
01:26:04
◼
►
but a lot of times it doesn't.
01:26:06
◼
►
- I brought up the iPod and everything
01:26:07
◼
►
because I feel like they do this so well in so many areas.
01:26:10
◼
►
They strike the right balance in terms of,
01:26:13
◼
►
the reason we buy their products is they're opinionated
01:26:14
◼
►
and we like their opinion.
01:26:16
◼
►
If you don't like their opinion,
01:26:16
◼
►
you buy different products, right?
01:26:17
◼
►
But if you like their opinion,
01:26:18
◼
►
you like the fact that they're designed,
01:26:20
◼
►
and again, especially on the hardware,
01:26:23
◼
►
carefully designed for the particular look and feel
01:26:25
◼
►
and the features they put in them
01:26:26
◼
►
and just the whole iPhone itself.
01:26:28
◼
►
When is it, what is the iPhone?
01:26:31
◼
►
When do we make a touchscreen
01:26:32
◼
►
that Apple feels like is good enough?
01:26:34
◼
►
What are the aspects of it?
01:26:35
◼
►
The whole, that's how you end up with something
01:26:37
◼
►
like the iPhone, that you have tastes and opinions
01:26:39
◼
►
and you are controlling about it
01:26:40
◼
►
and you slowly open it up.
01:26:41
◼
►
But if I look at the market of iOS devices,
01:26:44
◼
►
especially on the hardware side,
01:26:46
◼
►
they're striking such a good balance
01:26:47
◼
►
terms of having the products they want to have, selling accessories that they want to
01:26:53
◼
►
sell, but also having this huge ecosystem of accessories from other people. Every kind
01:26:59
◼
►
of case you could possibly imagine, including ones that Apple surely thinks are ugly, but
01:27:02
◼
►
they're not forbidding those to be made or forbidding an integration. We're not going
01:27:07
◼
►
to let our iPhone be docked into this docking device because we think it's gross or we don't
01:27:14
◼
►
We don't want you to be able to plug this thing in with USB cable and control this other
01:27:19
◼
►
For the most part, within the constraints of their programs, they have a hands-off type
01:27:22
◼
►
of attitude.
01:27:23
◼
►
You want to make a weird keyboard case that folds onto your iPad six years before we come
01:27:28
◼
►
out with a hardware keyboard for our iPads that's not Bluetooth?
01:27:32
◼
►
We're not going to be like, "Oh, well, we want to forbid that because we haven't decided
01:27:34
◼
►
whether we're going to do a keyboard with a thing."
01:27:37
◼
►
Even styluses.
01:27:38
◼
►
we don't want you to, we won't give you a made for, you know,
01:27:41
◼
►
iOS stamp of approval on any styluses
01:27:43
◼
►
because we don't want to have a stylus.
01:27:45
◼
►
Like for years, you had those little fake finger styluses
01:27:47
◼
►
and there was a million of them, right?
01:27:49
◼
►
Apple's willing to just let that go.
01:27:50
◼
►
And I think that was an important thing
01:27:53
◼
►
because it showed them,
01:27:54
◼
►
like especially if they sell any in their stores,
01:27:56
◼
►
boy, a surprising number of people buy these super terrible,
01:27:59
◼
►
you know, stylus things that they pretend to be fingers.
01:28:01
◼
►
Maybe there's something to the stylus thing after all.
01:28:03
◼
►
And eventually they came up with their own solution,
01:28:05
◼
►
which of course didn't have to emulate a finger
01:28:06
◼
►
and was much, much better.
01:28:07
◼
►
and they did a really good job.
01:28:08
◼
►
But that, I feel like that falls out
01:28:11
◼
►
of the having a big open market.
01:28:13
◼
►
And it's just certain kinds of products
01:28:15
◼
►
that have a blind spot about that with.
01:28:18
◼
►
Even you can even say Apple TV has that
01:28:19
◼
►
for so many years not having apps on it,
01:28:21
◼
►
which just seems crazy because they had learned
01:28:23
◼
►
how important apps are.
01:28:24
◼
►
And even now having the apps
01:28:25
◼
►
and having them be limited in all sorts of ways,
01:28:27
◼
►
because Apple has an idea of what a TV app should be like.
01:28:30
◼
►
And they're necessarily fencing off whole ranges
01:28:33
◼
►
of possibilities, even going down to, you know,
01:28:35
◼
►
my own particular pet peeves about 24 Hertz output
01:28:37
◼
►
whatever like that's a whole class of applications that could flourish or not
01:28:41
◼
►
on the Apple TV but because Apple has this narrowly defined you know you get
01:28:45
◼
►
200 megs you download stuff on demand you can have games but you have to
01:28:48
◼
►
support the remote just like they're just they fenced it in so narrowly
01:28:51
◼
►
they're not allowing that ecosystem to expand in the ways that some of their
01:28:57
◼
►
other ecosystems have been allowed to expand and it's and I think it's just
01:29:01
◼
►
it's just not the right balance like I think that's what Apple is always
01:29:04
◼
►
looking for and what I'm looking for Apple to do is not to be completely open,
01:29:09
◼
►
not to be completely closed, to find the right balance for each product line and
01:29:12
◼
►
it's and the way we see when Apple hasn't found the right balance is
01:29:15
◼
►
competitors. Competitors show us because they say if Apple's dropping the ball
01:29:19
◼
►
here then we can do better and show you something and then you look at it after
01:29:24
◼
►
the fact and you go boy Apple had all the pieces they had all the technology
01:29:26
◼
►
and they just didn't they just didn't do it or they were their own worst enemy
01:29:30
◼
►
and I see that I see that the most for every product that Apple does that has
01:29:33
◼
►
anything to do with sort of the open web and web services. Not that Apple is against the
01:29:37
◼
►
open web or web services, but it just seems to be a big blind spot for them. They don't
01:29:41
◼
►
realize the inherent power in that. And Amazon Echo, I think, is the most recent and most
01:29:47
◼
►
glaring example.
01:29:48
◼
►
All right, thanks so much for our three sponsors this week. Betterment, Ring, and FreshBooks.
01:29:53
◼
►
And we'll see you next week.
01:29:55
◼
►
Now the show is over, they didn't even mean to begin
01:30:02
◼
►
'Cause it was accidental, oh it was accidental
01:30:07
◼
►
John didn't do any research, Marco and Casey wouldn't let him
01:30:12
◼
►
'Cause it was accidental, oh it was accidental
01:30:18
◼
►
And you can find the show notes at ATP.fm
01:30:23
◼
►
And if you're into Twitter, you can follow them
01:30:28
◼
►
@C-A-S-E-Y-L-I-S-S
01:30:32
◼
►
So that's Kasey Liss M-A-R-C-O-A-R-M
01:30:37
◼
►
Auntie Marco Arment S-I-R-A-C
01:30:42
◼
►
USA, Syracuse, it's accidental
01:30:47
◼
►
They didn't mean to, accidental
01:30:52
◼
►
♪ That's the tech podcast ♪
01:30:55
◼
►
♪ So long ♪
01:30:57
◼
►
- So Tesla came out with a new car,
01:31:03
◼
►
which means your Model S is effectively old and busted.
01:31:06
◼
►
- Yep, totally obsolete.
01:31:07
◼
►
No, it isn't, because his car is still better
01:31:09
◼
►
than the preview car.
01:31:11
◼
►
In so many ways, it's better.
01:31:14
◼
►
- So Tesla came out, or debuted with the Model 3.
01:31:19
◼
►
- I like the emphasis on the master plan
01:31:21
◼
►
in the presentation like, oh, so many years ago,
01:31:23
◼
►
I had this master plan about what we're gonna do.
01:31:25
◼
►
If you're making a master plan,
01:31:26
◼
►
maybe that's the time to come up with like a naming scheme
01:31:29
◼
►
for your cars that's sensible, like so many other,
01:31:31
◼
►
like you only got three cars.
01:31:33
◼
►
It could be model one, two, and three, model A, B, and C,
01:31:36
◼
►
you know, four, six, eight.
01:31:38
◼
►
Like there are many possibilities that you could draw
01:31:40
◼
►
from one or name them after your favorite cities
01:31:43
◼
►
or whatever, but I don't think anybody drawing
01:31:46
◼
►
a master plan would be like Roadster S, X, and 3. Like, in your first outing, that's
01:31:54
◼
►
a ball drop. Anyway, we don't care about the name.
01:31:57
◼
►
Right. So, for those who are not aware, this is their cheaper sedan, their kind of mass
01:32:05
◼
►
market car. I did watch the presentation, which we'll have a link in the show notes.
01:32:09
◼
►
Elon had said, "Hey, the roadster was to kind of get really, really, really rich people
01:32:15
◼
►
to spend money on something stupid, and then that would let us bootstrap the S, which would
01:32:22
◼
►
let well-to-do people spend money on something that was less stupid, which in turn will let
01:32:28
◼
►
us do what we really want to do, which is the mass market Model 3."
01:32:34
◼
►
And they open pre-orders for the Model 3 the day of the announcement, but I think really,
01:32:41
◼
►
really early in the morning in whatever your local time was.
01:32:45
◼
►
And by the time of the announcement, they had over 100,000 pre-orders, is that right?
01:32:49
◼
►
A hundred and ten, I think, yeah.
01:32:51
◼
►
Something like that.
01:32:52
◼
►
And so the pre-orders, you have to put $1,000 down, but it is refundable.
01:32:56
◼
►
So that means 100,000 people had given Tesla $1,000 apiece.
01:33:03
◼
►
And I think they're up to like a quarter million.
01:33:06
◼
►
- Something like that, yeah.
01:33:07
◼
►
- But what's interesting is, you know,
01:33:08
◼
►
the first half of those people did it sight unseen.
01:33:10
◼
►
They knew nothing about the Model 3.
01:33:11
◼
►
Other than that, it was gonna cost, eh, around 40 grand.
01:33:14
◼
►
And it should have, eh, around the same range
01:33:17
◼
►
as the Model S, give or take.
01:33:19
◼
►
And then they did the reveal,
01:33:22
◼
►
which it was clear that Apple employees
01:33:26
◼
►
spend a lot of time practicing their presentations,
01:33:28
◼
►
not only those in the keynote, but those that like dub-dub,
01:33:31
◼
►
Because, man, Elon Musk was not built for this sort of presentation.
01:33:35
◼
►
And that's okay.
01:33:36
◼
►
Yeah, he could have used some rehearsal.
01:33:38
◼
►
It seemed like he didn't rehearse it once.
01:33:42
◼
►
But the presentation, nevertheless, was impressive.
01:33:45
◼
►
And the Model 3, on the whole, I like it.
01:33:49
◼
►
I think, aesthetically, it's got a little bit of problems on the outside.
01:33:54
◼
►
I think Jon takes more issue with the outside than I do.
01:33:56
◼
►
On the inside, I have major issues.
01:34:00
◼
►
a $40,000 plus car-ish that has 200 miles plus-ish of range, that's pretty damn appealing.
01:34:12
◼
►
And supposedly they're going to ship the end of next year. Like, this is sounding pretty
01:34:16
◼
►
good. I'm definitely interested.
01:34:19
◼
►
I wouldn't call this mass market, though. I understand the progression. Like, you go
01:34:21
◼
►
from a $100,000 impractical car to a $70,000 or $80,000 very practical car to a $35,000
01:34:29
◼
►
still pretty practical car. But you know, mass market is 25k. They're doing everything
01:34:36
◼
►
they can. The batteries cost a lot of money, right? So they're building this big factory
01:34:39
◼
►
or whatever, they're driving the price down. Eventually you would expect, if Tesla is still
01:34:43
◼
►
in business 10 years from now, that they will have something in the Honda Civic category
01:34:47
◼
►
or whatever. So they're working their way down. I like the progression, I like what
01:34:50
◼
►
they're doing. As for the specifics of the product, I was never really impressed with
01:34:55
◼
►
roadster because it's just the, you know, the, what do you call it? Lotus Elise. Yeah,
01:35:00
◼
►
yeah, but you got to do what you got to do. And I never, I, you know, it's, it was a sort of a
01:35:05
◼
►
minimum viable product type thing, but as a car I was like, all right, fine, whatever. The S, I was
01:35:11
◼
►
generally impressed by the styling because I think the overall shape of the car is good. They didn't
01:35:14
◼
►
get the details very right, but practically speaking, having both written in model S's and
01:35:21
◼
►
driven one, it's a good car. Like we've talked about this before, like it's not just a good
01:35:25
◼
►
electric car, it's a good car. I mean, and you'd imagine, well, it better be for the
01:35:28
◼
►
price you get, but they successfully made a good car, which is no small feat because
01:35:31
◼
►
not a lot of new car companies have come out and made a good car in our lifetimes, right?
01:35:38
◼
►
And it seemed to have enough of all the components together that even if you have complaints
01:35:44
◼
►
about certain small areas, that it's not a big deal. I totally expect the Model 3 to
01:35:48
◼
►
to do the same thing.
01:35:49
◼
►
To be good in all the same ways that the S is good.
01:35:52
◼
►
Because they can use the same foundation.
01:35:54
◼
►
Battery, electric motor, wheel, suspension, steering, everything.
01:35:59
◼
►
I see no reason to believe that those aspects of the 3 won't be just as good as the Model
01:36:05
◼
►
S. The only place you're saving any money is I would imagine this car is smaller, lighter,
01:36:09
◼
►
has less batteries in it, and they're made in the big giga factory and economies of scale
01:36:14
◼
►
and blah blah blah.
01:36:15
◼
►
All the sorts of reasons why does this car cost less than the Model S.
01:36:18
◼
►
Mostly it's because they're getting better at building these cars and have the big factory building the batteries and there's fewer of them and it's smaller
01:36:24
◼
►
And all that other stuff, but I can imagine for instance the interior of the model 3
01:36:28
◼
►
Giving the model s a reasonable run for its money mostly because the model s is not super luxurious to begin with
01:36:33
◼
►
But like that's not where the money is in these cars like the money is all in that freaking battery
01:36:37
◼
►
And just you know general raw materials and assembly like the lecture motors aren't super expensive in the grand scheme of things certainly not compared
01:36:44
◼
►
to an internal combustion engine
01:36:46
◼
►
Where I think the three falls down for me is
01:36:48
◼
►
I feel like it should it had the opportunity to learn
01:36:52
◼
►
From the s-class and exceed it in all the few areas where it falls down
01:36:56
◼
►
So is the interior gonna be better than the s?
01:36:58
◼
►
Probably not design wise having that big screen in the middle doesn't strike me as a we learned a lot from the
01:37:06
◼
►
The model s and so now we know how to make a better interior other than the fact that they learned that bigger screens are
01:37:13
◼
►
better. But my biggest complaint about the outside is what they've done with the front-end
01:37:17
◼
►
treatment. And in some respects, it's obvious what they're going for. It's like, "Hey,
01:37:23
◼
►
guys, we don't have to have a place where air goes into the front of our car because
01:37:27
◼
►
there's not a giant exploding internal combustion engine there that we have to blow air on,
01:37:30
◼
►
otherwise it overheats. We don't have to do that. So we should not be constrained by
01:37:35
◼
►
the styling of internal combustion engine cars. We have all this freedom. Let us now
01:37:41
◼
►
Reimagine what the front end of a car can look like because why should we make it look like an internal combustion engine?
01:37:46
◼
►
That's a good spirit and that's a good idea and they should pursue that that I feel like what they did
01:37:50
◼
►
Was took the front of an internal combustion engine car and just erased the grille in Photoshop
01:37:55
◼
►
There's a place for the grille
01:37:58
◼
►
It is shaped like a car with a grille would be was Marcos does the same thing the model s has a place for the grille
01:38:03
◼
►
And they just put a thing there that is a different color and it looks grill like but there's no holes in it
01:38:07
◼
►
It's you know because you don't need air to go into there, right?
01:38:10
◼
►
That at least like visually from a distance like,
01:38:13
◼
►
oh, that's a car with a grill, but it's not really grill.
01:38:16
◼
►
This car clearly has no grill,
01:38:18
◼
►
but it has shape wise the place for the grill.
01:38:20
◼
►
So I would encourage them to pursue
01:38:23
◼
►
this avenue of styling further,
01:38:27
◼
►
not like that they went too far,
01:38:29
◼
►
they didn't go far enough,
01:38:29
◼
►
they didn't sort of reimagine the front end
01:38:32
◼
►
of an electric vehicle that does not need to suck air
01:38:33
◼
►
through a big opening in the front,
01:38:34
◼
►
they didn't do it enough.
01:38:36
◼
►
And this is not, I think this may not be the final design,
01:38:38
◼
►
They could conceivably change it and add other little trim things to mess it up.
01:38:43
◼
►
So front end is a mess as far as I'm concerned.
01:38:46
◼
►
And then the overall shape, I get why they made it this way.
01:38:49
◼
►
They're touting like the interior space, the headroom or whatever, but its proportions
01:38:53
◼
►
are just not as nice as the S. The S is a bigger car.
01:38:56
◼
►
The bigger car allows it to have nicer proportions, to look more aggressive, to look less kind
01:39:00
◼
►
of hunchbacked and dowdy and like a droplet of water or whatever.
01:39:06
◼
►
I suspect the three will look better in person than it does in pictures.
01:39:09
◼
►
I really hope it will look better in person than it does in pictures.
01:39:12
◼
►
But if I were Marco, I'd be feeling pretty good about my purchase because he still has
01:39:17
◼
►
the best looking, largest, best performing, and prettiest Tesla and will for, it seems
01:39:23
◼
►
like, a long time now.
01:39:24
◼
►
Well, yeah, I mean, I don't have any buyers remorse, you know, if for no other reason
01:39:29
◼
►
that this probably won't even be out until my lease is over.
01:39:33
◼
►
They're saying this will allegedly ship by the end of next year, so about 18 months from
01:39:38
◼
►
I would be surprised if it shipped on time.
01:39:41
◼
►
And also, there are 200,000 preorders and they currently can make something like 50,000
01:39:48
◼
►
cars a year.
01:39:49
◼
►
Obviously, not all those preorders will turn into real orders because it's a refundable
01:39:54
◼
►
So, a lot of those people are going to cancel.
01:39:57
◼
►
But even if like a quarter of them end up actually going through with it and accepting
01:40:03
◼
►
their cars and buying them, and even if there are no production delays, which is unlikely,
01:40:11
◼
►
it would still put it out in like three years, roughly, before I could even get one if I
01:40:18
◼
►
wanted one instead of my Model S. And it turns out I probably won't because I like big
01:40:23
◼
►
big sedans and I like the additional features of the Model S. I like the additional space.
01:40:27
◼
►
I like the additional luxury that it will almost certainly continue to offer over the
01:40:32
◼
►
3. You know cost wise the Model 3 is from the info we have so far, and none of it is
01:40:37
◼
►
final, but from the info we have so far it is substantially de-contented or de-optioned
01:40:44
◼
►
from the base model Model S. And the cheapest you can get a Model S right now, I just went
01:40:50
◼
►
and configured it, 70 kilowatt hour battery,
01:40:53
◼
►
and you turn off all wheel drive,
01:40:55
◼
►
you get the cash price down to 70,000.
01:40:58
◼
►
And the cash price for this is allegedly gonna be 35,000.
01:41:01
◼
►
And they've said this enough times
01:41:03
◼
►
and been really sure about it enough times
01:41:04
◼
►
that they probably really can't go back on that PR wise,
01:41:07
◼
►
or at least not by much.
01:41:08
◼
►
So in order to cut the cash price of the car in half,
01:41:12
◼
►
it's going to have to come with less
01:41:14
◼
►
than what the S comes with at its base model.
01:41:17
◼
►
So they've already said it's gonna have things
01:41:19
◼
►
like it's not gonna have supercharging built in by default.
01:41:24
◼
►
Like you'll have to pay extra for that if you want.
01:41:26
◼
►
Supercharging.
01:41:27
◼
►
There's a whole bunch of stuff that comes standard
01:41:29
◼
►
on every Model S that the Model 3 probably will have
01:41:32
◼
►
to not come with just to hit that price point.
01:41:35
◼
►
I'm guessing that there's gonna be a major difference
01:41:38
◼
►
between these two cars.
01:41:40
◼
►
And part of the reason they had to make it so much smaller
01:41:43
◼
►
and make it kind of these weird proportions
01:41:46
◼
►
is to help set it apart, I think, from the S.
01:41:49
◼
►
Because the S is kind of competing
01:41:51
◼
►
in a different bracket here.
01:41:52
◼
►
But overall, I think, from what they've shown so far,
01:41:56
◼
►
we can have quibbles about the dash, which I do.
01:41:58
◼
►
But even Elon said on Twitter,
01:42:00
◼
►
it's not even the final steering wheel,
01:42:02
◼
►
and the final steering wheel's gonna be amazing,
01:42:03
◼
►
like a spaceship, so that kind of might take care
01:42:06
◼
►
of the weird issue with not having any display
01:42:08
◼
►
in front of the driver.
01:42:09
◼
►
But overall, I think this looks like a really,
01:42:12
◼
►
potentially awesome car.
01:42:13
◼
►
But there's still a lot of question marks
01:42:15
◼
►
over whether they can actually deliver
01:42:17
◼
►
and whether they'll deliver on time
01:42:20
◼
►
and what you'll actually get for the money
01:42:22
◼
►
because I suspect there's gonna be a lot of things
01:42:25
◼
►
that we think you'd probably want
01:42:28
◼
►
that are gonna be optional add-ons at that price point.
01:42:31
◼
►
- Real-time follow-up, the whole chat room and my memory
01:42:34
◼
►
says that actually they said that they will have
01:42:36
◼
►
supercharging on all models, but--
01:42:37
◼
►
- They will have the capability to,
01:42:39
◼
►
but Elon said on Twitter to somebody recently
01:42:42
◼
►
that it might be an additional fee to activate it,
01:42:45
◼
►
just like the old Model S was.
01:42:47
◼
►
So they will all have the ability to.
01:42:49
◼
►
Same thing with the autopilot.
01:42:51
◼
►
They will all have the hardware to do it,
01:42:53
◼
►
but you won't necessarily have that enabled
01:42:55
◼
►
unless you pay extra.
01:42:56
◼
►
- It's an in-app purchase.
01:42:58
◼
►
In-car purchase.
01:42:59
◼
►
- Yes, it really is, basically.
01:43:01
◼
►
- I have some faith that the only wildcard I feel like
01:43:04
◼
►
in their ability to deliver on this,
01:43:06
◼
►
in terms of schedules and pricing and everything,
01:43:07
◼
►
is the battery factory,
01:43:09
◼
►
'cause many things can go wrong there,
01:43:11
◼
►
it is a very large endeavor as they emphasize in the keynote and right sorry but everything
01:43:15
◼
►
else about this car they've already done on the model s it doesn't have any weird
01:43:19
◼
►
falcon wing door bs it is essentially a smaller s everything in it they they have substantial
01:43:27
◼
►
experience doing in the s they know how to make cars with doors with door handles with mirrors
01:43:31
◼
►
with wheels suspension steering the of the motors if they can get the battery manufactured at the
01:43:37
◼
►
price they want working the way they want and sticking in this car i totally believe they will
01:43:40
◼
►
hit their delivery dates because this is the kind of iteration I would expect.
01:43:46
◼
►
I feel like the X is a weird boondoggle with those much larger size and the weird doors
01:43:52
◼
►
that it's its own worst enemy. This is the natural evolution downmarket of the S.
01:43:58
◼
►
And how did they make it cheaper? I still feel like the way they make it cheaper is
01:44:01
◼
►
I feel like it's going to have a smaller battery than the S because it's a smaller car and you
01:44:06
◼
►
and you can get away with equal range,
01:44:09
◼
►
whatever the target was, like 215 range.
01:44:10
◼
►
I think 250s was the rumor, but I think they announced 215.
01:44:13
◼
►
- Yeah, it's officially spec'd at 215,
01:44:15
◼
►
and for reference, the 70, the Model S 70 kilowatt hour one
01:44:19
◼
►
specifies 230, and that's also a much bigger, heavier car.
01:44:23
◼
►
Like if you look at the ratings
01:44:25
◼
►
between the S and the X, the X ratings are lower
01:44:28
◼
►
per kilowatt hour because it takes more energy
01:44:30
◼
►
to move the larger, heavier car.
01:44:31
◼
►
So I'm guessing with the S having 230 miles
01:44:36
◼
►
out of a 70 kilowatt hour battery,
01:44:38
◼
►
I'm guessing they could put maybe a 50 or 55
01:44:41
◼
►
into the Model 3 to hit that goal.
01:44:43
◼
►
- Yeah, the other thing that Wildcard,
01:44:45
◼
►
I don't know about is how much is this gonna weigh?
01:44:47
◼
►
Because obviously it would weigh less than the S,
01:44:49
◼
►
but how much less?
01:44:50
◼
►
And the only way you get it to weigh a lot less
01:44:52
◼
►
is to use a much smaller battery,
01:44:54
◼
►
'cause those things weigh a ton,
01:44:55
◼
►
or to use lighter materials.
01:44:56
◼
►
Are they replacing steel with aluminum?
01:44:58
◼
►
Is there any like magnesium or other weirdness going on?
01:45:00
◼
►
You would imagine it can't get too exotic because it's a $35,000 car, but aluminum at
01:45:03
◼
►
the very least could be in the mix to try to lighten the car.
01:45:08
◼
►
And obviously the base model, I would just assume, I don't remember if this was announced,
01:45:11
◼
►
you know, one motor in the base model, right?
01:45:13
◼
►
Not that the motors are, again, not as expensive as internal combustion engines, but if you
01:45:16
◼
►
want to save money, like, that's the beauty of electric cars and the sort of the curse
01:45:20
◼
►
is there's not much to them.
01:45:22
◼
►
There's electric motor, like, more or less directly attached to your wheels through a
01:45:25
◼
►
fixed gear ratio.
01:45:27
◼
►
There's suspension.
01:45:28
◼
►
There's steering.
01:45:29
◼
►
pumps and compressors, there's a giant battery, and then there's a living room that you put
01:45:33
◼
►
the chairs in, right? And that's it! That's all there is in the car, this inventing, I guess,
01:45:38
◼
►
for blowing air on you. Like, there are so many fewer components than the giant mess that is under
01:45:43
◼
►
the hood of internal combustion engine cars, where just like the little villages, you know,
01:45:47
◼
►
all around the engine in terms of keeping the engine cool and keeping the oil flowing through
01:45:52
◼
►
it and things going up and down and firing sparks and wires, and it's just, there's just so much
01:45:57
◼
►
extra stuff there that just isn't in this car which means that if you want to make the car for cheaper
01:46:02
◼
►
You can reduce your component costs or you can use less of something that's expensive
01:46:06
◼
►
But there's not much else there. Like I really don't feel you know, that's why I say on the interior
01:46:11
◼
►
I guess they have to make it not as nice as the s just to like to
01:46:15
◼
►
Differentiate their lines, but how much money are you really gonna save by using different seat materials?
01:46:20
◼
►
Like you could save a couple hundred bucks here and there but the big ticket items are that stupid battery
01:46:26
◼
►
all the big steel parts that make up a car that you can't get rid of because you need suspension and wheels and a body and
01:46:32
◼
►
Crash protection and stuff like that
01:46:34
◼
►
And I guess that you know one motor is cheaper than two and then that's it then you know
01:46:40
◼
►
So they're they're wise to go after their big cost center
01:46:43
◼
►
Which is the battery is like how cheaply can we make them can we build like this giant factory and make pretty huge capital?
01:46:48
◼
►
Investments so that we can churn out
01:46:50
◼
►
at the first year, 250,000 of these batteries
01:46:53
◼
►
and put them into cars that we can sell for $35,000
01:46:55
◼
►
and at least break even or come close to a product.
01:46:57
◼
►
I mean, that's the sort of meta thing
01:46:59
◼
►
that we're not really talking about here
01:47:01
◼
►
is that Tesla is, regardless of what you may think
01:47:05
◼
►
as a car guy about their individual products,
01:47:08
◼
►
they're actually doing the thing
01:47:09
◼
►
that so many other car companies have failed to do,
01:47:12
◼
►
which is build electric cars, build a business on them,
01:47:15
◼
►
and make them good cars that people wanna buy.
01:47:18
◼
►
Like that is just, you know, it's, it's,
01:47:20
◼
►
it kind of goes without saying, we don't say, we're like,
01:47:21
◼
►
oh, I have complaints about this particular car,
01:47:23
◼
►
but like nobody else is doing that.
01:47:25
◼
►
Hell, the biggest car companies in the world
01:47:27
◼
►
sometimes have difficulty making a car
01:47:29
◼
►
that people want to buy
01:47:30
◼
►
and they're making internal combustion engine cars.
01:47:32
◼
►
Sometimes they miss that target.
01:47:33
◼
►
Tesla is making electric cars that people want to buy,
01:47:36
◼
►
but hundreds of thousands of people will order
01:47:38
◼
►
sight unseen.
01:47:39
◼
►
So they're, you know, they're,
01:47:42
◼
►
they're quite a phenomenon,
01:47:44
◼
►
regardless of the quality of their individual products.
01:47:46
◼
►
and this is like their third car or whatever,
01:47:49
◼
►
I'm willing to give them wide leeway to continue to--
01:47:52
◼
►
--to continue to figure out how to do cars.
01:47:55
◼
►
If they are still in business, which I really hope they are,
01:47:58
◼
►
when my grandkids are driving, they
01:48:00
◼
►
should be making pretty amazing cars for prices
01:48:04
◼
►
that hopefully anybody can afford.
01:48:07
◼
►
First of all, being in business all the way out there,
01:48:09
◼
►
I think someone's going to buy them.
01:48:11
◼
►
Apple tried, right?
01:48:14
◼
►
I suspect a car company's gonna buy them.
01:48:16
◼
►
But, well, maybe Apple is a car company.
01:48:19
◼
►
- Would Elon sell to a car company?
01:48:21
◼
►
I think they had to assassinate Elon first before.
01:48:23
◼
►
- But I'm thinking like, you know,
01:48:24
◼
►
worst case scenario, if they're like desperate
01:48:26
◼
►
and if they're gonna go out of business,
01:48:28
◼
►
I think they're gonna get bought
01:48:29
◼
►
rather than just shutting down.
01:48:31
◼
►
But anyway, it's really quite something,
01:48:34
◼
►
like to see the amount of enthusiasm and energy
01:48:37
◼
►
and momentum behind this launch of this car
01:48:40
◼
►
that we know almost nothing about.
01:48:42
◼
►
And even before we knew anything about it, how many orders there were.
01:48:46
◼
►
This is really, we're on the cusp of something big here.
01:48:49
◼
►
And it's happening now.
01:48:50
◼
►
It's not like this is like, "Well, in the future cars will be really nice and they'll
01:48:54
◼
►
be all electric."
01:48:55
◼
►
No, today cars are really nice and all electric.
01:48:58
◼
►
They're just really expensive right now.
01:49:00
◼
►
But they're here, they exist.
01:49:02
◼
►
They're selling, you know, I think they have something like 150,000 Model S's already out
01:49:07
◼
►
in the world.
01:49:08
◼
►
So they already sell these cars in decent volume.
01:49:13
◼
►
And yeah, that isn't as much volume as the entire
01:49:18
◼
►
world driving population or some other big brand cars,
01:49:21
◼
►
but that is real volume that counts for something.
01:49:26
◼
►
These things already exist today,
01:49:28
◼
►
and they're only going to become more of them in the future.
01:49:31
◼
►
I don't think this is a temporary fad.
01:49:33
◼
►
I think this is, and once you drive one,
01:49:36
◼
►
you realize, oh my god, this is amazing.
01:49:38
◼
►
why doesn't everybody have this?
01:49:40
◼
►
And of course the answer is because
01:49:41
◼
►
it's very expensive right now,
01:49:43
◼
►
but that seems to be a temporary problem.
01:49:45
◼
►
- I'm kind of confused about why
01:49:47
◼
►
some of them have L-shaped door handles
01:49:49
◼
►
and at least one model, I presume the base model doesn't.
01:49:52
◼
►
Is that like a value add feature?
01:49:54
◼
►
Well, if you buy the base model,
01:49:55
◼
►
you get straight door handle like Marco's crappy car.
01:49:58
◼
►
But if you buy the upscale models,
01:49:59
◼
►
your door handle is slightly L-shaped.
01:50:02
◼
►
- They probably just haven't decided which one it is yet.
01:50:04
◼
►
They built one with the Ls
01:50:06
◼
►
and built the other one without them.
01:50:07
◼
►
- Oh, that was the nice thing about it,
01:50:08
◼
►
when they drove the cars out onto the stage,
01:50:10
◼
►
it's another one of those electric car moments
01:50:11
◼
►
when you realize they don't have to worry
01:50:13
◼
►
about filling the room with carbon monoxide
01:50:15
◼
►
as they drive their cars out onto the stage.
01:50:17
◼
►
- Right, exactly.
01:50:18
◼
►
- And they also don't have to worry
01:50:19
◼
►
about the noise of the engines running.
01:50:20
◼
►
Just drive 'em right out, it's fine.
01:50:22
◼
►
- Yeah, that was pretty wild.
01:50:24
◼
►
- I mean, really, every time I drive
01:50:26
◼
►
this electric drive train, I'm just like,
01:50:28
◼
►
"Oh my God, this is so good."
01:50:29
◼
►
Like, why, if you can get one of these,
01:50:34
◼
►
if you can both swing the price
01:50:35
◼
►
and if it fits within your lifestyle
01:50:38
◼
►
with like range concerns and everything.
01:50:40
◼
►
And those are two big ifs.
01:50:43
◼
►
But if it fits, why wouldn't you get it?
01:50:45
◼
►
Like once you drive it, that's honestly how you feel,
01:50:48
◼
►
because it's so good.
01:50:50
◼
►
- If you have the means, I highly suggest picking one up.
01:50:54
◼
►
I have to tell you though,
01:50:55
◼
►
the interior is so unbelievably bad to my eyes.
01:50:59
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It's got a dashboard-ish.
01:51:02
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It has a thing that looks like a dashboard,
01:51:05
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But all it has on the dashboard is a steering wheel
01:51:08
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and a touchscreen.
01:51:10
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And yes, I'm aware that all of this is in flight.
01:51:13
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But it looks like they didn't even try yet.
01:51:16
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Like, oh, god, I don't like the floating display.
01:51:20
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It just looks fragile to my eyes, which
01:51:22
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I know is a KC problem.
01:51:24
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But I don't like it.
01:51:25
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And I definitely do not like having any sort of gauges
01:51:28
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behind the steering wheel.
01:51:29
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I just think that's a terrible idea.
01:51:31
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Yeah, a lot of other cars have tried that.
01:51:33
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And there have been various theories.
01:51:35
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I mean, the economic one is like,
01:51:37
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we'll make a world car that's symmetrical,
01:51:39
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so we can do right and left hand drive
01:51:40
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and just put the TASH cluster in the middle.
01:51:42
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I'm not sure how much I buy that as a reason,
01:51:45
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but it's something that you can see and think about.
01:51:47
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One of the reasons they gave was like,
01:51:49
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it's better to not have to change your focal distance
01:51:53
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as much from looking out the window
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where your focal distance is way off down the road
01:51:57
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to looking super close to you, like the gauge cluster.
01:52:00
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So let's do like a two level dash or put it in the center
01:52:02
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So it's, you know, the difference between focusing at four feet versus two feet.
01:52:07
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I'm not sure I buy that because I don't know. I mean,
01:52:09
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I can understand maybe the focal distance.
01:52:11
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You don't want to go from really close to really far,
01:52:13
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but how much farther away from you can you get that dashboard when it 10 hat
01:52:16
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still have it inside the car with you. It can't, you know,
01:52:19
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make that big of a difference. Uh,
01:52:21
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and I just think consumers have voted with their feet to say
01:52:26
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every car that has tried to do this, and there have been many of them,
01:52:29
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The feedback has been universally negative,
01:52:32
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not massively negative, but enough negative
01:52:34
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that in subsequent models they change it.
01:52:36
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Every car that's done a two-level dash where
01:52:37
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you have one set of gauges close, one set of far,
01:52:39
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every car that's had a bunch of gauges in the middle
01:52:42
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has eventually gone back to a more conventional arrangement
01:52:46
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or like that model has faded away
01:52:48
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and a new model is replaced.
01:52:49
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I think maybe the Toyota Echo still
01:52:51
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has that arrangement as the lone stalwart,
01:52:54
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but it baffles me why people want
01:52:58
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to do that in anything other than a concept car.
01:53:00
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And the wild card is, and of course we don't know,
01:53:01
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is like, fine, do you have another solution?
01:53:04
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Maybe it's all heads up display,
01:53:05
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and they have an amazing HUD.
01:53:06
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All right, fine, all I'm just saying is like,
01:53:09
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somewhere where the driver doesn't have to turn his head,
01:53:12
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you need to be able to see things like how fast you're going
01:53:15
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and other information about the car,
01:53:17
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is your turn signal on, are your headlights on,
01:53:19
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without having to look elsewhere.
01:53:21
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I feel like that should be easily within the driver's vision
01:53:24
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without requiring a head,
01:53:25
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That's why we have gauge clusters.
01:53:28
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So I really hope they have some solution to that
01:53:31
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that isn't just look at the giant screen,
01:53:34
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the giant 17 or 18 inch screen
01:53:37
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that we've stabled to the front of the dashboard.
01:53:39
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- Yeah, I completely agree.
01:53:41
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I understand it's not the final design,
01:53:43
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but God, I do not like it at all.
01:53:46
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It just looks so boring.
01:53:47
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And it's just this vast emptiness there.
01:53:50
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It's terrible.
01:53:53
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All in all, I am very interested in the car.
01:53:55
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I am not interested enough to have put down a pre-order,
01:53:59
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and at this point, there's no point
01:54:01
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putting down a pre-order,
01:54:02
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'cause Declan will be out of college
01:54:03
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by the time they would deliver on that pre-order,
01:54:05
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like Marco was saying.
01:54:07
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But I'm really intrigued,
01:54:09
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and I'm really pleased that they're moving,
01:54:12
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I don't know if down-market
01:54:13
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is really the right way to describe it,
01:54:14
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but certainly into a larger segment of the market.
01:54:17
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And having driven Underscore's Model S,
01:54:20
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it kind of ruined me for life.
01:54:22
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I mean, electric cars done right are phenomenally cool.
01:54:27
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And I'm really, really anxious to see what this looks like
01:54:32
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when it's all said and done and when it's actually released.
01:54:35
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- Well, and what I also wanna see is like,
01:54:38
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how does everyone else respond to this?
01:54:40
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What happens when this eats into a big part of sales
01:54:44
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of the BMW 3 Series?
01:54:46
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How does everyone else react to this?
01:54:49
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- Well, they've all got electric car projects in the works,
01:54:51
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like all of them.
01:54:52
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BMW's already got what is the i8 and the i3 and Porsche's got the their electric car product.
01:54:59
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A lot of people have essentially Model S competitors in various stages of development.
01:55:03
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I think now it's just a race of who can get their cars to market soon enough because if
01:55:08
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Tesla beats them to market it's going to be a real problem because as we've seen people
01:55:12
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are just going to buy whatever good electric car is available they're going to buy it.
01:55:16
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If Porsche beats the Model 3 out, I mean the Porsche's are kind of already lost because
01:55:19
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Model S has been out. Something was brought up in a recent article I was reading. Porsche's target
01:55:25
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for their electric vehicle was like, "Oh, it's going to have a 3.5 second 0 to 60."
01:55:28
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The car that's already out now beats that. The Model S already beats that. And this is a car
01:55:33
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you're going to come out with in three years? That's not good planning, right? Especially if
01:55:37
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your name is Porsche and you're going to sell it for Porsche level prices. Tesla is a strong
01:55:42
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competitor and has a lead. But I feel like every car company they're competing with, even like the
01:55:46
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the new Audi A8 was designed from the beginning to be this structure, this chassis, this underpinnings
01:55:53
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of this car, accepts both an internal combustion engine and a full electric setup. Will they
01:55:58
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do a good job? Will they be as good as Tesla? Who knows, but everyone else has woken up
01:56:02
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now and said, "We have to do this," and now it's just a race to see who gets there first.
01:56:08
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I really do feel like the only edge the established car companies have is, I feel like they're
01:56:12
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better at styling and they're better at details and interior and just general kind of like the
01:56:18
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the intangibles because the tesla is for all of their their good looks and everything still
01:56:22
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they haven't i don't know they haven't really defined a strong visual language and i was that's
01:56:30
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you know they kind of have because you can tell a tesla looks like a tesla but they all kind of look
01:56:35
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more generic and lozenge like than the fairly distinctive personalities of the other car lines
01:56:42
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that if you see an Audi, you know it's an Audi.
01:56:44
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If you see a BMW, you know it's a BMW.
01:56:46
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Like there's family resemblances that change over the year,
01:56:49
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and I think Tesla is, to my eyes,
01:56:51
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having trouble establishing anything outside
01:56:55
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the sort of generic future-y looking car aesthetic.
01:56:58
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- In the early days of the iPod,
01:57:00
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Apple had a really, really strong advantage
01:57:03
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over the rest of the market that not only were they
01:57:05
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often first to some of those form factors,
01:57:08
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they would negotiate rates with the flash memory
01:57:11
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and they would consume so much flash memory production in the world that other manufacturers
01:57:17
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were not even able to match them on price or to even get enough flash memory or to get
01:57:21
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the best kind of flash memory because Apple was consuming it all and had locked up all
01:57:25
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the supply. What if Tesla has that for lithium ion battery production?
01:57:29
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Yeah, they're not buying, they're making themselves. What I fully expect to happen is as part of
01:57:35
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Tesla's financial viability, if they have any excess capacity, they will sell batteries
01:57:39
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from their Gigafactory to Audi and BMW and Mercedes or whatever, because why wouldn't
01:57:45
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I mean it's the same reason Toyota sells the Prius electric drivetrain to so many other
01:57:50
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car manufacturers.
01:57:51
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They're not afraid of people competing with the Prius because they feel like that's the
01:57:53
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whole package, but they'll sell you their system at a profit and license it essentially
01:57:58
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to you to use in your car so you're not interested in it.
01:58:01
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One other thing I'm recalling is that, remember the Volkswagen Phaeton, however you pronounce
01:58:07
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attempt to make a high-end VW which is weird because a high-end VW is called an Audi but
01:58:11
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anyway it's a vaguely confused product but anyway the the reason I'm recalling is the
01:58:17
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new Audi A8 about the option of electric drivetrain my understanding is the new Phaeton is only
01:58:22
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electric like so that's that's going to be the Volkswagen what is the Volkswagen Model
01:58:26
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S competitor like everyone seems like they want to have one and it's just it's not so
01:58:30
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much that like the secret tech that Tesla has unlocked it's that Tesla has proven that
01:58:34
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that if you just do a really good job
01:58:36
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with modern lithium ion battery technology
01:58:38
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and put some electric motors,
01:58:39
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people will buy that car for like,
01:58:41
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like if you had told any car manufacturer,
01:58:44
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I told Audi several years ago,
01:58:45
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just sell a car starting at 70 grand
01:58:47
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that's electric and get like,
01:58:48
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if you gave them the specs of the model,
01:58:50
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they'd be like, no one's gonna buy that, that's ridiculous.
01:58:52
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Why don't we just sell them the cars we know how to make
01:58:54
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for exactly the same price
01:58:55
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that's better in every possible way?
01:58:57
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Like that was their short sightedness.
01:58:58
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They didn't see that this,
01:58:59
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they didn't see the advantages of this product.
01:59:01
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It's not because they said,
01:59:02
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we have no idea how to build that.
01:59:04
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Because in so many respects, building a pure electric car
01:59:07
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is so much more straightforward than hybrid,
01:59:09
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which is what all of them were doing,
01:59:10
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like, oh, hybrid systems, and we'll go back and forth,
01:59:12
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and the motor will charge the battery,
01:59:13
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and this, that, and the other thing,
01:59:15
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like the Chevy Volt and everything.
01:59:17
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Once Tesla was so smart to commit early,
01:59:20
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no, just electric, that's it.
01:59:22
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Like, no hybrid, no internal combustion engine,
01:59:24
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it makes everything simpler,
01:59:25
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we are completely focused on this,
01:59:26
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and they proved that people will buy this product.
01:59:28
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And now, I feel like the other auto manufacturers
01:59:31
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have woken up to that market possibility,
01:59:33
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And I have to think that there's enough in-house car design
01:59:37
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All they need is the battery and electric motor expertise
01:59:40
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that if they can't develop in-house, at the very least,
01:59:43
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they can buy.
01:59:45
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So I think all the established car makers
01:59:48
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are going to make good electric cars sooner
01:59:51
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than we think they are.
01:59:52
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It's just a question of whether Tesla can continue to outrun
01:59:55
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(door slams)