83: Entering the iTouch Phase of My Life


00:00:00   We apparently just missed an Amazon announcement.

00:00:02   Let's see.

00:00:03   What?

00:00:04   Amazon just released another tablet.

00:00:05   I thought it was another Kindle.

00:00:06   No, I gotta look it up.

00:00:08   Yeah, whatever.

00:00:09   Do we actually give a sh—

00:00:10   No, it doesn't—I mean, how—you know, if you look at the impact that the Kindle Fire

00:00:16   in general, the tablet line—I mean, not the stupid phone—if you look at the impact

00:00:20   that the Kindle Fire tablets have had on the tablet market as a whole, I think almost everybody

00:00:25   would be able to look at it and say, "That's not nearly as big of a deal as we thought

00:00:29   when it was released. I think we all said, "Oh, this tablet's so cheap, they're going

00:00:36   to get a huge market share, it's going to be a big deal." And from what we can tell,

00:00:40   it seems like it sells okay, but it's not really setting the world on fire or anything.

00:00:46   It isn't the only cheap Android tablet anymore, and it was never the best cheap Android tablet.

00:00:52   And so it ended up not really mattering that much. There's tons of cheap Android tablets

00:00:57   out there, many of them cheaper than this, Amazon software has always been mediocre at

00:01:02   best.

00:01:03   So yeah, it just never seems to matter as much as we think it will.

00:01:07   You know, these devices must be awesome because the subheadline or whatever you call this

00:01:13   is inexpensive may not have to be garbage.

00:01:17   Could be garbage but may not.

00:01:19   Like that's not, "Oh, these are the best Amazon Kindle Fire tablets ever."

00:01:25   It's inexpensive, may not have to be garbage.

00:01:29   So let's start with talking about quad 27 inch retina displays.

00:01:35   Again, this is awesome.

00:01:37   I love this.

00:01:38   I'm so excited.

00:01:39   There should be a link there, I guess, back to the same thing.

00:01:41   But no, it's because last week when Marco talked about it, he mentioned that the only

00:01:46   Mac that's for sale that this could conceivably work with is the Mac Pro because it's the

00:01:51   only one with two Thunderbolt buses and everybody heard two Thunderbolt buses as

00:01:57   two Thunderbolt ports and then we got all the email from everyone telling us

00:02:00   all the other Macs that have two Thunderbolt ports on them. Ports are not

00:02:03   the same thing as buses. There's a limited amount of bandwidth per bus and

00:02:08   even though you may have two ports if they all lead to the same bus it's not

00:02:11   like you get twice the bandwidth. Two buses like the Mac Pro has, it's only two

00:02:16   Is it three maybe it's three it is thank you anyway

00:02:19   The Mac Pro has a whole bunch of Thunderbolt buses and there's a diagram showing you all it was like six ports on the back

00:02:25   or something

00:02:27   Yeah, and then and it also connects the HDMI port and and it's the reason why it can have three is

00:02:32   Not because like they spend an extra 30 bucks on the ports on the motherboard. It's because if Thunderbolt

00:02:38   Basically connects directly to the CPU and so the CPU has to support

00:02:42   this and it has to have a certain number of PCI Express lanes run into it all these like these bandwidth limited things that run to

00:02:49   the CPUs and

00:02:50   the reason why the Mac Pro uses Xeon CPUs well one of the many reasons that uses the ons is

00:02:55   Because Xeon the Xeon e5 series which it uses has tons more

00:03:00   PCI Express lanes that run directly to the CPU and so they can do things like

00:03:04   Have two GPUs that can talk to each other at extremely high bandwidth and also have enough PCI Express lanes

00:03:11   so they can run three individual Thunderbolt buses, for the most part purely to the CPU.

00:03:17   There's a little bit of a trick there with the switch, but yeah, look at Anatex review.

00:03:20   Anyway, Intel's consumer CPU line, which is what every other Mac uses, never has enough

00:03:26   ports for this. I mean, maybe in the future they might add this, but it's very unlikely.

00:03:29   Not ports, buses.

00:03:30   Buses, right, right. So it isn't only that the Mac Pro is the only one that can do this,

00:03:37   but it's not like next year there's going to be a MacBook Pro that can do this.

00:03:41   Like it's probably going to be not until Thunderbolt 3,

00:03:45   and Thunderbolt 3 is arriving with the Skylake something like?

00:03:49   Skylake? Yeah, the codename after, whatever comes after Broadwell, I believe it's called

00:03:53   Skylake or it's S something like. When that arrives, then you'll, then

00:03:57   the consumer CPUs will be able to have enough bandwidth to run these kind of

00:04:01   displays over one cable into one bus. But

00:04:05   is still probably at least a year and a half off where that can even start to become a thing.

00:04:09   So like I was saying, we should put in the show notes the diagram on the back of a Mac Pro,

00:04:13   which tells you which of those six ports is connected to bus number one, which is connected

00:04:17   to bus number two, and so it's not as straightforward as like the ones on the left or on one bus and the

00:04:21   one on the right or another. It's this weird pattern. But anyway, that's that's why the

00:04:24   Mac Pro would be the only option for this. Now DisplayPort 1.3 was announced, and I think you

00:04:29   posted about that as well, Marco, how does that factor into this?

00:04:33   Thunderbolt 3 has enough bandwidth to run one of these. So Thunderbolt 2, basically what you need is

00:04:39   depending on whether you can trick it into running at 24-bit or whether you keep sending 32-bit like

00:04:44   most display interfaces do because it's easier, you need either 21 gigabits per second or 28

00:04:50   gigabits per second. The current Thunderbolt 2 limit is 20, so neither of those will fit no

00:04:55   matter how you do it. As long as it's 60 hertz you still can't do it. And anything lower than 60 hertz

00:05:00   It sucks, so that's no good.

00:05:03   Thunderbolt 3, I think raises it up to 30 or something.

00:05:07   It raises it higher than the 28,

00:05:10   so it can then handle this.

00:05:12   What I expect to happen here,

00:05:14   I expect that we have a very good chance

00:05:17   of seeing a retina iMac this year,

00:05:18   because an iMac, when you have a built-in display,

00:05:22   whether it's a laptop or an iMac-style computer,

00:05:25   those displays don't connect

00:05:27   over internal Thunderbolt cables.

00:05:28   They connect over a different bus.

00:05:30   I know it used to be like the LVDS thing.

00:05:32   Do you know, Jon, is that kind of stuff still used?

00:05:35   - I have no idea how the display in an iMac is connected,

00:05:39   but other than the fact that it's not a Thunderbolt cable

00:05:41   that's connecting it from one place to another.

00:05:43   - So in a laptop or in an iMac,

00:05:46   you can avoid these issues with the way their displays

00:05:49   are interfaced to their video cards.

00:05:51   It's more of like a direct connection.

00:05:52   And I guess, Casey, you don't know either, do you?

00:05:55   - No, not off the top of my head.

00:05:56   - Okay, so none of us know exactly how this works,

00:05:58   but I know that it's roughly that these things

00:06:00   use their own kind of like internal signaling mechanisms

00:06:04   that don't have the same limitations

00:06:05   as these external cable standards.

00:06:07   So I think because, like so if Apple released this,

00:06:11   you know they're calling it 5K,

00:06:13   well Dell's calling it this,

00:06:14   if Apple released a 5K resolution or quad 27

00:06:18   or quad retina, whatever you're calling it,

00:06:20   if Apple releases one of these monitors,

00:06:23   only the Mac Pro could run it.

00:06:24   And that's not a particularly graceful product launch.

00:06:28   I don't think they would do that.

00:06:29   I think they would probably wait

00:06:31   until every new Mac could do it.

00:06:33   And that's probably gonna be two more years.

00:06:35   But the Retina iMac could happen this year, theoretically,

00:06:40   or late this year or early next year.

00:06:43   I don't know if it will, but it could.

00:06:45   And so I suspect we're gonna see Retina 5K panels in iMacs

00:06:50   before we're gonna see them from Apple as external monitors.

00:06:55   - I mean, I think that sounds fair.

00:06:57   - All right, moving on for more follow up.

00:07:00   Optical image stabilization.

00:07:02   Tell me about how you were wrong, Marco.

00:07:04   - Yeah, sure.

00:07:05   So I was under the impression from forever ago,

00:07:08   I don't know where I read this,

00:07:10   that the way optical image stabilized SLR lenses worked

00:07:14   was that there was actually a spinning glass element in them

00:07:17   and that it spun quickly enough

00:07:20   that it would have its own kind of gyroscopic stabilization

00:07:22   so that when you move the lens,

00:07:24   the lens would, or the spinning element would shift

00:07:27   to kind of undo that.

00:07:30   Turns out that's completely wrong,

00:07:31   and the way SLR image stabilization works

00:07:35   is very similar or identical to the way that it works

00:07:39   in the new iPhone 6, which is, or the 6 Plus,

00:07:42   which is that an accelerometer detects motion,

00:07:45   and then using electromagnets shifts around the,

00:07:48   or actuators or something, electrically shifts

00:07:51   around the lens, you know, X times per second

00:07:53   to compensate for it.

00:07:55   There is a floating element in that it's not tied down,

00:07:57   but it does not spin.

00:07:58   So yeah, I was totally wrong about that.

00:08:01   - So if you'll allow me to piggyback on that briefly,

00:08:04   today was the day, or last night, whenever,

00:08:07   recently was the time that the six and six plus reviews

00:08:11   all came out, so the embargo was lifted.

00:08:13   And one thing that I saw fairly consistently

00:08:16   between all the six and six plus reviews

00:08:18   was people saying that the six plus battery life

00:08:21   really is demonstrably better and longer

00:08:23   than previous phones and even the six itself.

00:08:28   And I don't know about you guys,

00:08:29   but when they flashed the chart on the screen of,

00:08:32   you know, standby time's a little bit longer

00:08:33   and this and that is a little bit longer,

00:08:35   none of that looked that dramatic to me

00:08:37   except like playing music.

00:08:39   But nevertheless, a lot of people are saying,

00:08:42   and Matt Panzorino at TechCrunch is a great example of this,

00:08:44   are saying that the six plus actually

00:08:47   has somewhat considerably better battery life.

00:08:49   And that actually surprised me quite a bit.

00:08:52   - I think it's just perception

00:08:53   versus seeing numbers on a table.

00:08:54   You're doing the math in your head,

00:08:55   you're subtracting 14, 11, that's a difference of three.

00:08:58   That's three hours.

00:08:59   And the experience of three extra hours of time

00:09:03   is much greater than you seeing

00:09:04   those two numbers up on the screen.

00:09:05   So I think Apple's numbers are probably in the ballpark.

00:09:07   All this stuff is fuzzy anyway.

00:09:09   I just think any difference in battery life gets magnified

00:09:13   when the plus is just consistently still alive

00:09:16   while the iPhone 6 is dead.

00:09:18   And if it's still alive for like one hour, two hours,

00:09:20   like that feels like forever.

00:09:21   It feels like, oh wow, this iPhone 6 Plus is amazing

00:09:25   when it's just, I think, probably a reasonable reflection

00:09:28   of the numbers Apple put up.

00:09:30   - I mean, from like a raw capacity perspective,

00:09:32   I believe the parts leaks indicated

00:09:34   that the 6 Plus's battery was something like 50% larger

00:09:38   than the 6's battery.

00:09:40   So there is a lot more capacity there.

00:09:41   Of course, the question is, you know,

00:09:43   how much more does it use for that big screen and everything?

00:09:46   and the display scaler.

00:09:47   - And the upclock CPU too.

00:09:49   - Yeah, yeah, I posted a link earlier on Twitter

00:09:52   to a BareFeets benchmark where I don't think,

00:09:55   has anyone else confirmed this yet?

00:09:56   It sure looks like from this BareFeets benchmark

00:09:58   that the 6+ does have a slightly higher clock speed,

00:10:03   probably in the range of five to 10% on its CPU.

00:10:06   So it does have like five to 10% better CPU performance

00:10:09   than the 6, which is similar to the Retina iPad Mini

00:10:16   and the iPad Air both have the A7 CPU

00:10:20   and they're both technically identical in most ways,

00:10:24   except that on the iPad Air it is clocked slightly higher,

00:10:27   similar, like 5% or 10% higher.

00:10:30   So the iPad Air is slightly faster than the Retina Mini

00:10:32   with the quote same CPU.

00:10:34   So it looks like we have basically that exact same

00:10:36   difference between the 6 and the 6 Plus.

00:10:38   The 6 Plus is slightly faster.

00:10:40   In reality, the 6 Plus has all these

00:10:44   fairly minor improvements over the 6 beyond the screen.

00:10:47   So it has more battery life, maybe in practice,

00:10:52   maybe it's 20, 25% more,

00:10:54   once you account for the screen and everything.

00:10:56   It has a higher DPI screen, so it's a sharper screen.

00:11:01   Even like according to John Gruber,

00:11:02   even with the scaling it's doing,

00:11:06   it still ends up being sharper looking

00:11:08   than the other screens.

00:11:09   Now we know it has a slightly faster CPU

00:11:13   and then it has the optical image stabilization,

00:11:16   which people are saying does make a small difference,

00:11:19   but it is a difference and it is better.

00:11:21   - Yeah, speaking of, I don't have it handy,

00:11:24   so I'm gonna butcher the description,

00:11:26   but in Panzareno's review, he was saying,

00:11:28   I think that you get a couple of f-stops more

00:11:31   with the optical image stabilization, is that right?

00:11:33   I don't know anything about photography.

00:11:35   - Yeah, the way this works,

00:11:36   and this is what actually impressed me way more.

00:11:39   So, Panzareno, and I saw this mostly

00:11:42   in the ones he was tweeting last night,

00:11:43   when he was tweeting the stats and everything,

00:11:46   and tweeting what the ISO was,

00:11:48   what the shutter speed was for these shots.

00:11:50   What's interesting is, so image stabilization,

00:11:53   keep in mind that it cannot stabilize your subject.

00:11:56   So if you are moving, if you're in a moving vehicle,

00:12:00   or if you're otherwise moving substantially,

00:12:03   or your subject is moving, if it's a person, for instance,

00:12:07   or a pet, image stabilization does not help you there at all

00:12:12   you still need a fast shutter speed to freeze the motion.

00:12:15   Where image stabilization does help quite a lot

00:12:18   is if you're taking a picture at night

00:12:20   of a building or something or a landscape,

00:12:22   that helps tremendously there.

00:12:24   And so what it allows you to do basically

00:12:27   is compensate for the very small hand movement.

00:12:29   So if you try to take a long exposure shot

00:12:32   without a tripod, just handheld,

00:12:35   it's pretty hard to get that to be remotely sharp

00:12:37   just because of tiny movements you make

00:12:39   without even realizing it with your hands and your body

00:12:42   while you're holding the shutter down.

00:12:43   Image stabilization lets you generally,

00:12:46   like on an SLR, a good stabilizer,

00:12:48   I've been able to handhold a shot

00:12:50   up to roughly a second exposure,

00:12:51   which is very, very long for a camera

00:12:54   to have a one second exposure.

00:12:55   I can handhold that with a good stabilizer

00:12:58   and the picture turns out sharp.

00:13:00   It's gonna be a little bit different

00:13:02   with one that's this small for various reasons,

00:13:04   but the result is that the shutter can stay open longer

00:13:08   and it can still be sharp

00:13:10   compared to an unstabilized image.

00:13:12   What this means is that the phone

00:13:15   is able to drop the sensitivity down.

00:13:18   So the sensitivity also, it's called ISO in the EXIF data.

00:13:21   You know, so the numbers are like 400, 800, 1600.

00:13:25   So the higher sensitivity generally,

00:13:28   and I'm sorry for anybody who knows this already,

00:13:30   the higher sensitivity,

00:13:31   you're basically amplifying the signal.

00:13:33   And so you get, you don't need as much light to be captured,

00:13:37   but you're also amplifying the noise that's present

00:13:39   at like the baseline.

00:13:40   And so that's what makes pictures grainy and noisy,

00:13:43   especially if you ever see like the color grain,

00:13:46   that's called chroma noise,

00:13:47   it's one of the more obvious ones.

00:13:50   And post-processing can attempt to remove some of this

00:13:52   and oftentimes it does, but then it looks kind of muddy

00:13:54   or low contrast or like a watercolor painting.

00:13:56   Anyway, image stabilization lets the camera

00:13:59   capture more light before your hand motion matters,

00:14:03   if the subject is being still.

00:14:06   And therefore it can drop the sensitivity down

00:14:08   so that way you get less noise, better colors,

00:14:11   better contrast.

00:14:12   Where that helps is in nighttime shots.

00:14:14   So, Panzorino was posting these shots

00:14:16   and the one on the iPhone 6 of this dark building at night,

00:14:20   the one on the iPhone 6 without stabilization

00:14:23   was ISO 1200 or something like that.

00:14:27   And then the one on the iPad 6 Plus with stabilization

00:14:30   was at ISO 400.

00:14:31   Way lower sensitivity, massive difference in noise,

00:14:34   basically.

00:14:35   And so, that's where stabilization is going to seemingly

00:14:38   help a lot in the iPhone is, you know,

00:14:40   and generally, you know, it picks the ISO for you,

00:14:42   but it looks like it's making intelligent decisions

00:14:45   on how, what's the minimum sensitivity we can use here

00:14:50   to capture the image given the scene.

00:14:52   And so the Image Stabilizer gives you a lot more headroom

00:14:54   with avoiding noise in darkness.

00:14:57   - So the f-stop is telling me how long

00:14:59   the shutter remained open, is that correct?

00:15:02   - In this context, basically, yes.

00:15:03   But it's not a complete definition, but yeah.

00:15:06   That's basically saying in this context,

00:15:09   like you can get a lot more light in

00:15:11   and therefore the sensitivity can be lower.

00:15:14   - Cool, all right, thank you.

00:15:15   I was just curious because like I said,

00:15:17   I know almost nothing about photography,

00:15:19   so I recognize those terms as photography related,

00:15:22   but I wasn't sure what specifically that was leading onto.

00:15:26   Since we've opened this Pandora's box,

00:15:27   anything else about the hardware?

00:15:29   None of us have any of the hardware yet,

00:15:30   but anything else from the reviews or anything?

00:15:32   - Well, the chat room says that Jason Snell confirmed

00:15:35   that the 6 Plus is at 1.4 gigahertz versus 1.2 for the 6.

00:15:39   So there's some exact numbers on the CPU speed.

00:15:41   And by the way, Gruber mentioned that the 6 Plus--

00:15:44   it's kind of an iPad 3 situation where the 6 Plus may

00:15:46   be clocked higher, but it may actually

00:15:48   need to be clocked higher.

00:15:49   Not so much the CPU, but the GPU,

00:15:51   because he was saying that he saw a couple of stutters

00:15:53   on the 6 Plus just because it's slinging so many pixels around,

00:15:56   like a 3x image on this giant screen, that

00:15:58   may be having a little bit extra clock speed, assuming this clock

00:16:02   speed applies to the GPU as well.

00:16:04   that if it's higher than six plus,

00:16:07   maybe it needs it and maybe it's not,

00:16:10   it's maybe a little bit overdrawn on its CPU

00:16:13   and GPU power bank account.

00:16:15   This first generation big giant screen iPod,

00:16:19   again, like the first retina iPad was a little bit,

00:16:22   you know, a little bit too much.

00:16:24   - All right, so speaking of people that were wrong,

00:16:26   although I'm sure John, you're about to tell me

00:16:27   that I'm wrong in saying you're wrong,

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00:18:42   Okay, John. So tell us about Google Wallet

00:18:45   That's not the first

00:18:47   Android thing that I got wrong. The first one was when we were discussing

00:18:50   Smart watches and I was talking about the idea of taking a phone and shrinking it down and having like a little phone on your wrist

00:18:57   I used the wrong brand name for the Android wearable

00:19:01   It's been so many of them that multiple names are floating around in my mind. I kept saying and Android wear

00:19:06   That's not what I was thinking of was actually Galaxy gear

00:19:08   Which was the one that predates Android wear Android wear is actually much more like

00:19:12   Apple's interface

00:19:14   Maybe a little bit more limited because we don't really know what kind of stuff can actually run on the watch

00:19:18   But the interface is don't look like you're not you're not like

00:19:20   Flicking through the equivalent of table views and looking for stuff like you were on the galaxy gear

00:19:24   So I was thinking of Galaxy Gear, not Android, where my apologies for the mistake.

00:19:29   OK. Now Google Wallet.

00:19:32   Oh, yeah. So last week we talked about the NFC thing with Apple Pay,

00:19:37   and I noted that Apple gets the card present rate, even though a card is not actually present,

00:19:43   they get the card present rate because of the inherent security in their NFC thing.

00:19:48   And I thought the touch ID might have been part of that. But Dion Garrett sent me a link to a

00:19:52   Quora article explaining that Google Wallet

00:19:54   also gets the card at present rate,

00:19:56   and of course that's not reliant on Touch ID,

00:19:58   so apparently NFC alone is secure enough

00:20:01   that people can get these deals

00:20:04   where you get the card at present rate.

00:20:06   It doesn't have anything to do with Touch ID.

00:20:09   Although there was one more article

00:20:10   that unfortunately I didn't get a chance to read,

00:20:12   maybe we'll throw it in the show

00:20:13   and see if people can read as well,

00:20:14   but Tim Breadshoe pointed out that,

00:20:16   I linked to an article in the Financial Times

00:20:18   trying to explain how much money Apple is getting

00:20:22   from each transaction and who was giving them that money.

00:20:24   And he made it seem like that Apple is actually skimming

00:20:28   more off of each transaction than previous people

00:20:32   who attempted to insert themselves into the payment chain.

00:20:37   And that I assume most of this payment is coming

00:20:39   from the credit card companies and the banks

00:20:40   and not the consumers.

00:20:42   But again, I haven't read that article,

00:20:44   we'll put it in the show notes.

00:20:44   And by the way, Tim Bradshaw got Tim on Twitter @Tim,

00:20:48   which he must've been pretty early, huh?

00:20:50   (laughing)

00:20:52   I should note with regard to Apple Pay that I got an email from Bank of America today

00:20:56   saying, "Oh, we're going to support Apple Pay.

00:20:59   Don't worry.

00:21:00   It's coming, it's coming, it's coming," which I can't remember Bank of America being that

00:21:04   forward thinking about just about anything.

00:21:06   Now, I'm one of the six humans that doesn't think Bank of America is pure, unadulterated

00:21:10   evil.

00:21:11   I've always had okay luck with them, but I'm very surprised that they're trying to be on

00:21:17   the ball with this Apple Pay thing.

00:21:18   And I know that it was mentioned that they were one of the partners during the keynote,

00:21:22   but actually receiving an unsolicited communication from them saying, "Apple Pay is coming, Apple

00:21:26   Pay is coming," that kind of took me back.

00:21:28   Not a bad thing, just surprised.

00:21:30   So let's talk about some feedback from Pomo.

00:21:34   I'll see if I can summarize this.

00:21:36   He basically says, "I know you're not into Android, but it always hurts to hear things

00:21:41   like 'How will the market react now that there is feature X?' for a feature that has existed

00:21:44   before in the concept of NFC payments.

00:21:48   Obviously Apple will fare better at NFC payments than Google.

00:21:52   Companies seem protective when Google tries to enter a market.

00:21:58   As for how large iPhones will fare, you don't have to guess these things.

00:22:01   Large high end phones have been around for a while, there should be no shame in checking

00:22:04   how they fare in the Android world.

00:22:06   It's fine that you're not into Android, but it's sad, and in such topics occasionally

00:22:09   nerve-wracking (2) when you don't seem to know about what's happening outside of the

00:22:14   outside of the Apple bubble.

00:22:17   So basically, you know, Pomo's complaint is,

00:22:20   it's annoying when we talk about things Apple does

00:22:23   as if they're the first things of those type to exist,

00:22:25   and that we don't even look at the Android world to see,

00:22:28   like, hey, you know, this, not only is this not the first,

00:22:31   but we can already see in the Android world

00:22:33   how these things do in reality.

00:22:35   So my response to him or her, is it,

00:22:38   I don't think we know, I don't know off the top of my head.

00:22:40   Anyway, my response to him or her,

00:22:42   our pronouns are terrible in this language,

00:22:44   is basically, you know, there's two things.

00:22:47   Number one, yeah, of course we don't pay attention

00:22:49   as much to Android as we do with iOS

00:22:50   'cause we don't use Android.

00:22:51   You know, none of us really use it on a regular basis.

00:22:53   So there's a little bit of that.

00:22:55   But mainly, you know, his examples of like, you know,

00:23:00   trying to predict how NFC will do,

00:23:02   trying to predict how large screen phones will sell.

00:23:05   Yeah, Android has those things already.

00:23:09   But the fact is it's different

00:23:10   when Apple does things like that.

00:23:12   It doesn't, like the market does not work the same way

00:23:15   when Apple does something as an Android does something

00:23:16   because there's so many other factors at play.

00:23:19   So like, you know, the payment stuff,

00:23:22   the NFC payment stuff, yeah,

00:23:24   Android phones have had that for a while

00:23:25   and no one in the US even knows about it.

00:23:29   You know, and granted the rest of the world,

00:23:31   NFC payments are bigger in general

00:23:33   and non-dumb old credit card payments

00:23:36   are bigger in general.

00:23:38   With the chip and pin stuff

00:23:39   and everything that came before that, you know,

00:23:41   But in the US, which is admittedly not the whole world,

00:23:44   but it's also a pretty big market

00:23:46   and pretty important to Apple and us,

00:23:48   Apple has a lot of clout.

00:23:51   When Apple announces something like this,

00:23:53   people pay attention, people hear it,

00:23:54   and Apple is offering basically an integrated solution

00:23:58   to people top to bottom.

00:24:00   It's branded, it will be used.

00:24:03   It's gonna be in people's faces.

00:24:05   It's gonna have all this press and marketing behind it.

00:24:08   It's gonna have all these deals made with the retailers.

00:24:10   like no Google device manufacturer or Google itself could have that kind of integration

00:24:16   power. So when Apple is going to attempt NFC, it's way more likely to succeed, I think,

00:24:24   than any of Google's efforts. And not necessarily to the exclusion of Google's efforts, Google's

00:24:28   efforts might also end up succeeding. But I think Apple's effort will be exactly what

00:24:34   Android fans hate the most. It will succeed as if it was the first one there. And I'm

00:24:39   I'm sorry, but that's just very likely to happen.

00:24:42   And it's not because no one gives Google credit, I guess.

00:24:47   It's because no one even knew about the Android ones

00:24:50   in the US for the most part.

00:24:51   And it's just different.

00:24:53   - We don't know if it will succeed or not.

00:24:55   But the sections that I quoted from email says,

00:24:58   hurts to hear how the market will react for a feature

00:25:02   as if it hasn't existed before.

00:25:04   And then the very next sentence is,

00:25:05   obviously Apple will throw better.

00:25:08   So I mean, obviously this person's been, you know,

00:25:10   well, if you think it's gonna fare better,

00:25:12   then why are you just saying it's the same?

00:25:14   See, the second part that you read

00:25:17   is even more on the nose.

00:25:19   As for how large iPhones will fare,

00:25:21   you don't have to guess these things.

00:25:22   Now, first of all, I don't think we were guessing, all right?

00:25:24   We've been discussing the market's appetite

00:25:29   for large phones since episode one,

00:25:31   literally, of this podcast, right?

00:25:35   And so we're not guessing how large iPhones are fair.

00:25:39   The large phones have been around for a while.

00:25:41   It's right there in the sentence.

00:25:43   Large iPhones.

00:25:44   We know how large Android phones sell roughly.

00:25:47   We don't know how large iPhones will sell.

00:25:49   There's just so many, and that's what we're talking about.

00:25:51   We're not pretending, oh, who will buy these things?

00:25:53   Because it's different.

00:25:54   It's a large iPhone.

00:25:55   It's not a large Android phone.

00:25:56   It's a very different product,

00:25:57   selling into a very different market.

00:25:59   And I don't think we were ignorant at all

00:26:01   that larger phones existed or whatever.

00:26:05   You can't just extrapolate from past events and say,

00:26:07   well, these things have always been popular,

00:26:09   therefore we know Apple.

00:26:10   I mean, what is it that we should have done

00:26:12   that we weren't doing?

00:26:13   Acknowledge the existence of Android phones?

00:26:15   Check.

00:26:16   Incorporating the appetite for large phones in general

00:26:19   into the possibility of a large Apple phone existing

00:26:22   and how it's going to do?

00:26:22   Check.

00:26:23   Like, I feel like we checked up all the check boxes on this.

00:26:26   We were totally incorporating all the information at hand,

00:26:29   but we then have to say, how is Apple different?

00:26:31   And as this person's feedback says,

00:26:34   Even he thinks, I think it's he, that Apple will fare better.

00:26:37   Why will they fare better?

00:26:38   Well, it's a different product with a different feature

00:26:41   set and different deals behind it.

00:26:42   And that's what we discussed.

00:26:43   I don't know.

00:26:44   That's probably too long.

00:26:45   But anyway, this feedback, I understand the frustration

00:26:49   from hearing a podcast from people

00:26:51   whose usage and knowledge centers

00:26:53   on a different platform than you.

00:26:55   But I do think we incorporated as much information

00:27:00   about the precursors to these products

00:27:03   as was relevant to predicting how we think they might do.

00:27:07   On a somewhat related note, I think

00:27:09   it was after the last episode that I

00:27:12   saw a bunch of Europeans tweet at any one of us saying,

00:27:17   wait, you guys don't have chip and pin?

00:27:20   What?

00:27:20   Yeah, they don't know how bad it is over here.

00:27:22   Yeah, it was hysterical.

00:27:23   Tell them about the cable companies.

00:27:25   Oh, it's atrocious.

00:27:26   But to extremely quickly give you

00:27:28   an idea of how bad it is here in America,

00:27:31   we don't have chip and pin.

00:27:32   although now that everyone is getting all of our credit card numbers, that's supposedly

00:27:36   coming.

00:27:37   And the other thing that Europeans could not understand is if you're at a restaurant,

00:27:41   the general way things work is you ask for a check, they bring you the check, you give

00:27:46   the server your credit card, they run away to some terminal that could be in the back

00:27:51   of the restaurant well out of your line of sight, swipe your card, hopefully not skim

00:27:57   your card, bring it back, and then you are to add the tip that you want to add, sign

00:28:03   the paper, and leave it.

00:28:04   And just hope that A, they didn't skim your card, and B, they actually put the amount

00:28:10   you want them to put into the point of sale system in order to charge you.

00:28:15   It is completely backwards here, and that's one of the reasons why I think Apple Pay or

00:28:21   Or any other equivalent credit card less or any sort of NFC based payment system might

00:28:28   actually work because we are so backwards anything will be an improvement.

00:28:34   The only thing and I think I might have asked or wondered this in either this show or the

00:28:37   other one.

00:28:38   I wonder if it's going to be socially awkward at the beginning to be like, "Do you have

00:28:42   Apple Pay?

00:28:43   Can I do this thing with my phone?

00:28:44   I've never really tried it but I kind of want to try it.

00:28:46   Is that okay?

00:28:47   Do you mind?"

00:28:48   I think kind of socially weird,

00:28:50   but I hope that we all get over that very quickly

00:28:52   because we are so behind Europe

00:28:54   when it comes to this credit card business.

00:28:55   It's just beyond description.

00:28:58   - Yeah, no, I was thinking like, you know,

00:28:59   the restaurant thing is probably the biggest example,

00:29:02   but there's all sorts of things in the US

00:29:03   where like you have to give your credit card to somebody,

00:29:06   they swipe it and they bring it back to you,

00:29:08   oftentimes like far away.

00:29:10   Like I was like in New Jersey,

00:29:12   it's all full service gas stations.

00:29:14   And so you, as the person, you have to stay in your car

00:29:18   and you sit there while somebody else pumps your gas for you

00:29:22   and puts your credit card into the pump for you.

00:29:24   And there's all sorts of things like that in America,

00:29:27   with restaurants being the biggest,

00:29:28   where they're gonna have to completely revamp

00:29:32   the way they charge people, the physical process,

00:29:36   how they charge people.

00:29:38   And whether that's gonna be little wireless terminals

00:29:40   or what they bring to you, I don't know.

00:29:42   There's all sorts of options,

00:29:43   but there's gonna be a lot of like major disruption

00:29:48   of minor things in the US to make this happen.

00:29:52   - We got feedback about that as well,

00:29:53   which I think directly echoing something

00:29:56   that Marco said in the last show,

00:29:58   then the idea is that, you know,

00:29:59   so Chip and Pin is coming to our country

00:30:01   because the fraud rates have ticked up a little bit

00:30:04   and now it is economically feasible for them to do that.

00:30:06   And so there'll be new point of sale hardware.

00:30:08   And as Marco said in the last show,

00:30:09   new point of sale hardware is an opportunity

00:30:11   to also have NFC in that new point-of-sale hardware.

00:30:14   Like Apple is coming in at more or less just the right time

00:30:17   when there's gonna be a lot of turnover

00:30:18   in point-of-sale hardware and retail anyway.

00:30:20   And adding NFC to the mix is a good thing to do

00:30:24   is that retail stores are gonna wanna buy

00:30:26   whatever the most forward-looking point-of-sale hardware is

00:30:28   so they don't have to replace it again soon.

00:30:31   So we expect the state of the art

00:30:36   in payment processing in the US

00:30:38   to slowly lurch forward towards the future.

00:30:40   Will it be Apple Pay everywhere?

00:30:42   Will it just be Chip and Pin everywhere?

00:30:44   Will it be some mix?

00:30:45   Anything's gotta be better than where we are today.

00:30:47   So I look forward to that over the next few years.

00:30:49   Although knowing how slowly these things go,

00:30:52   it could be many years, so we'll see.

00:30:54   - Do you guys like full service gas stations?

00:30:56   - No, nobody likes full service.

00:30:57   - I do. - Nobody likes New Jersey

00:30:58   and nobody likes full service gas.

00:30:59   (laughing)

00:31:01   - I do.

00:31:01   - Why? - Yeah, there's someone

00:31:02   here who does.

00:31:03   - Why do you like full service gas?

00:31:05   That just seems so weird.

00:31:07   Like whenever I go, say, to your house,

00:31:09   Like say I did, what was it, last weekend,

00:31:11   the weekend before, we always go up the Jersey Turnpike

00:31:14   and go to the token Sanoko's

00:31:17   and we get our full service gas

00:31:19   and it's always so awkward to me.

00:31:21   And then they like do your windshield, which is really nice.

00:31:23   And then there's that ambiguous moment where you're like,

00:31:25   should I tip this person?

00:31:26   Do I need to tip this person?

00:31:27   - They do your windshield and you think, both of you,

00:31:30   I can't believe both of you, like, first of all,

00:31:32   do you, what they're doing your windshield with

00:31:34   is this like bucket full of disgusting, dirty water

00:31:37   filled with sand that's gonna scratch your windshield.

00:31:40   And then both of you, do you want someone else

00:31:41   messing with your gas cap and just shoving the thing

00:31:43   in there and do it?

00:31:44   Like, it's terrible.

00:31:46   Why would you let someone touch your beautiful,

00:31:47   precious, super expensive car?

00:31:49   Like, they don't care about any of that stuff there.

00:31:51   They're just, oh, no, not good.

00:31:54   - Well, I don't mind them doing the windshield,

00:31:55   but I don't like the idea of full service gas to begin with.

00:31:58   I do like that Jersey gas is considerably cheaper

00:32:01   than any other of the surrounding states,

00:32:03   but I do not like full service gas,

00:32:05   and I would even rather get out of my car in the winter

00:32:07   when it's freaking freezing and handle my own gas business,

00:32:11   then have someone come to me and ask, what do you want?

00:32:15   And then you got to tell them, oh, well, I want premium.

00:32:16   And then you have to like give them the eagle eye side eye,

00:32:19   making sure they actually put in premium.

00:32:21   I hate full service gas.

00:32:23   - Well, the gas is cheaper in New Jersey

00:32:24   because it just condenses out of the air over newer.

00:32:27   (laughing)

00:32:30   - Oh, you're gonna get so much email.

00:32:31   Oh, that's fantastic.

00:32:33   Oh, that's good times.

00:32:34   Anyway, all right, let's talk about something awesome.

00:32:37   - Can I tell you why I like full service?

00:32:38   - Oh, if you wanna try to defend

00:32:40   that ridiculous opinion, feel free.

00:32:42   - I'm gonna go with he's really lazy, what's your guess?

00:32:44   - He's too spoiled.

00:32:46   - The same thing kind of, all right, go ahead.

00:32:48   - I like full service, well first of all,

00:32:49   there's two gas stations in my town.

00:32:51   They're both full service,

00:32:53   and they're both like little independently owned things.

00:32:55   And the reason I like it so much is because

00:32:58   I don't have to get out of my car

00:32:59   and get my hands covered in that gas hand smell.

00:33:02   (laughing)

00:33:05   Why don't you just put like hand sanitizer in your cars?

00:33:07   - I have, I have a like a little bit.

00:33:09   It's the only time I use hand sanitizer ever

00:33:11   is I have this little thing in my car.

00:33:13   - Hand sanitizer spells worse than gas hands.

00:33:16   Both of them are very volatile.

00:33:16   - Actually I tend to. - They will evaporate quickly

00:33:18   and you don't have to worry about it.

00:33:19   It's not like a lingering smell

00:33:20   like that you're not gonna be able to get off it.

00:33:22   It will evaporate.

00:33:23   It'll be fine, trust me.

00:33:24   - I actually think I would agree

00:33:25   that gas hands smell better than antiseptic hands,

00:33:29   but whatever.

00:33:31   It does not surprise me Marco

00:33:32   that you do not wanna get out of your M5

00:33:35   in order to pump your own fuel.

00:33:36   - But you should not want those people

00:33:37   touching your car at all.

00:33:39   And Casey, you should not want whatever water

00:33:41   they're washing your windshield with.

00:33:42   Just go look, get out of your car

00:33:44   and look where they're dipping and rubbing on your,

00:33:46   they're making it dirtier.

00:33:47   They're not cleaning your windshield.

00:33:49   - You say that, but especially in the summertime

00:33:51   and especially late in the evening,

00:33:53   my windshield is often so disgusting from bugs

00:33:56   that it's actually almost to the point

00:33:58   of being a safety hazard.

00:34:00   And so I appreciate the fact that I can now see something,

00:34:03   even if it's a little cloudier perhaps than it once was.

00:34:06   At least it's not completely opaque because of bugs.

00:34:09   - Wow.

00:34:11   Anyway, Igloo is an internet you'll actually like.

00:34:13   Igloo is built with easy to use apps like shared calendars,

00:34:17   Twitter like micro blogs, file sharing,

00:34:18   task management and more.

00:34:20   You can have all of this in your internet for your company.

00:34:23   And you know, most internets are terrible

00:34:26   as almost anybody who's ever used one can attest.

00:34:29   Igloo is so good.

00:34:32   It is everything you need to work better together

00:34:34   in a very configurable cloud platform.

00:34:37   You can learn more at igloosoftware.com/atp.

00:34:42   With igloos responsive design,

00:34:43   your internet already works like a champ

00:34:45   on virtually any device, iOS, Android, even Blackberry.

00:34:49   If you actually, I guess in the corporate world,

00:34:51   it's probably important to have Blackberry support,

00:34:53   but even there, I mean, do people still use Blackberries?

00:34:56   - No.

00:34:57   - Jon, do you see any Blackberries at your job?

00:34:58   - I have, I still do see them.

00:35:00   they still do exist.

00:35:02   - You probably are like the most normal job,

00:35:05   you're probably exposed to the most normal people

00:35:07   in your job, the three of us.

00:35:08   Would you say that or Casey,

00:35:09   you think you are with clients and stuff?

00:35:10   - Yeah, see it's a tough call.

00:35:11   My actual employer is relatively progressive and small,

00:35:15   but a lot of the companies we work with

00:35:17   are huge financial services companies

00:35:19   and they're, let's just go with different.

00:35:22   - Nice, anyway, if your company still is unfortunate enough

00:35:28   to have Blackberry users, Igloo will even work on those.

00:35:31   They are that good.

00:35:32   It also even works on your new iPhone 6 Plus

00:35:34   right from the very start.

00:35:36   They've already tested it and it works.

00:35:38   So you can review a document,

00:35:39   you can post a project update,

00:35:40   you can change your administrative settings

00:35:42   or talk about how that U2 album

00:35:43   snuck onto your iTunes library all from your phone,

00:35:46   no matter who makes your phone or what size it is.

00:35:48   Plus, when you design your Igloo internet,

00:35:50   any change you make to the look and feel

00:35:52   carries across all of these devices.

00:35:55   The file preview engine is also fully HTML5 compatible.

00:35:59   So if one of your coworkers uploads a proposal

00:36:01   or a JavaScript file, you can preview in line,

00:36:03   add comments, upload new versions or assign action items.

00:36:07   That's a thing, action items from your phone.

00:36:10   Just this peak, Gartner, the big analyst firm,

00:36:12   I'm an analyst, you know,

00:36:13   released their famed Magic Quadrant

00:36:15   for social software in the workplace.

00:36:17   That sounds awesome.

00:36:19   Igloo appears in this Magic Quadrant report

00:36:21   for the sixth consecutive year,

00:36:23   alongside tech giants like Microsoft, IBM, Google,

00:36:26   VMware, Salesforce.com, and SAP.

00:36:28   Is it S-A-P or SAP?

00:36:30   - S-A-P.

00:36:31   - I'm gonna go with SAP.

00:36:32   In a report that values the size of the vendor,

00:36:34   in Gartner terms, that means viability,

00:36:37   Igloo is praised for their responsiveness

00:36:39   and customer experience.

00:36:41   This quadrant thing, oh man, I saw this once at a company.

00:36:44   Oh, there are so many, it's all full of business terms.

00:36:48   To me, it might as well be written in a different language.

00:36:51   Business people understand it, I don't.

00:36:53   But anyway, if you understand it,

00:36:55   igloo ranks very well in it.

00:36:56   Here's an excerpt from Gartner's profile of igloo.

00:36:59   Feedback from igloo's reference customers,

00:37:01   reference customers, oh man, was consistently positive.

00:37:04   They praised the product's quick deployment,

00:37:06   configuration and customization flexibility

00:37:08   with self-service options for non-technical users,

00:37:10   control over branding and information organization

00:37:13   and ease of use.

00:37:14   They also praised the responsiveness of igloo

00:37:15   as an organization.

00:37:17   So if you understood that and your company

00:37:18   has a legacy internet built on SharePoint

00:37:20   their old portal technology,

00:37:22   you should definitely give Igloo a try.

00:37:23   They're way better than that.

00:37:24   They're cool people.

00:37:26   They're big fans of our work and all of our friends' work.

00:37:28   They said they've supported us for years.

00:37:30   And I can't say enough, if you need an internet,

00:37:34   start with them.

00:37:35   And one of the cool things is,

00:37:36   you can get up to 10 people on Igloo for free.

00:37:39   They have this free tier, zero to 10 people,

00:37:41   I guess zero isn't really a usage,

00:37:43   but one to 10 people on Igloo, it's free.

00:37:46   After that, it's very reasonably priced.

00:37:48   So check it out.

00:37:49   go to igloosoftware.com/atp.

00:37:52   Once again, igloosoftware.com/atp

00:37:55   for an internet you will actually like.

00:37:58   - You know, just to build on that,

00:37:59   I am not a fan of the Gartner analyses,

00:38:03   but I am a fan of iglo.

00:38:04   - The quadrant report.

00:38:05   - Yeah, oh, it's so bad.

00:38:06   It's so businessy, I need a shower.

00:38:08   - They're magic quadrants.

00:38:09   Regular quadrants are boring and unmagical.

00:38:12   Magic quadrants can revolutionize your industry

00:38:14   with reference customer relationships.

00:38:16   - Oh, it's so bad.

00:38:17   But igloo is very good.

00:38:18   So if you're turned off by hearing the word Gartner,

00:38:22   don't be turned off about Igloo 'cause they're awesome.

00:38:25   Anyway, we can talk about the Apple Watch.

00:38:27   - Yes, that was right after we finished the last show

00:38:30   where we were talking about, you know,

00:38:32   the Apple Watch starts at 3.49, where does it end?

00:38:35   And we were all given our different numbers and stuff.

00:38:37   - Oh, we were way off.

00:38:38   - Right after it was over, I saw a tweet that said,

00:38:41   "Did you know the Apple Watch is solid gold?"

00:38:43   And no, I did not know they have,

00:38:45   I mean, we think we even said gold-plated on the show.

00:38:47   Apparently the gold watch is not some other metal

00:38:50   with gold plating on it, but is in fact solid gold alloy,

00:38:53   some metal that is a very odd portion of gold.

00:38:55   And so that takes all of our estimates

00:38:57   and just based on the raw materials alone,

00:39:00   just shoves them up thousands of dollars.

00:39:02   So forget about what we said on the last show,

00:39:04   solid gold totally changes the equation.

00:39:06   Now there's still the question of,

00:39:07   all right, so it's solid gold,

00:39:09   all of our estimates go up by a few thousand bucks,

00:39:10   whatever.

00:39:12   The remaining question is,

00:39:13   what we were getting at last show,

00:39:16   will Apple be willing to charge a price for its product

00:39:19   that is just massively out of whack

00:39:22   with the cost of materials and labor

00:39:24   and so on and so forth?

00:39:25   So for example, if they could get a 50% product margin

00:39:30   selling their high-end watch for $8,000,

00:39:33   would they say, "Well, that's a 50% margin.

00:39:36   Why don't we sell it for 16,000?

00:39:38   No additional cost of materials."

00:39:39   But I was saying, "But you know what?

00:39:41   At this price range, what the hell?

00:39:42   Who cares?

00:39:43   Just crank that number up."

00:39:45   - I think so.

00:39:46   And that's the question, like when you get to,

00:39:48   like you, Chris, there's a name for this.

00:39:50   - Veblen Goods or, yeah.

00:39:51   - It's like when, instead of the, when the demand,

00:39:55   oh, I'm gonna get this wrong.

00:39:56   Someone Google it so I don't have to try to say it,

00:39:59   since it's off the top of my head.

00:39:59   But anyway, it's once you reach the very high end,

00:40:02   the rules of supply and demand go all wacky,

00:40:05   and suddenly the price starts going up and up and up

00:40:08   as the number of people who can afford it goes down,

00:40:10   and it just becomes like a status symbol

00:40:13   or something that you want to buy because if it's rarity,

00:40:18   kind of like, you know,

00:40:19   there's not gonna be many people with this watch.

00:40:22   Anyway, we don't know what Apple's gonna do in that area.

00:40:25   We should buy, still think it's really interesting

00:40:26   to see what the price is gonna be,

00:40:27   but I think we already know just based on the fact

00:40:29   that it's solid gold,

00:40:30   that the price of this thing is gonna be huge.

00:40:33   So high that it'll eliminate almost everybody

00:40:36   from even looking at that watch, except for the very wealthy.

00:40:39   And Gruber had his watch review up

00:40:41   and he talked about this as well,

00:40:43   and we didn't really talk about it too much.

00:40:44   Now that we know that these things are gonna be

00:40:46   comfortably into the super expensive jewelry category

00:40:49   at the high end, so many more questions open up.

00:40:52   One of the ones that has been discussed is,

00:40:54   who's gonna buy something that expensive

00:40:58   when it has built-in obsolescence

00:41:00   in a way that like a Rolex does not?

00:41:02   - Yeah, that's a big one.

00:41:03   I wonder, first of all, I definitely recommend

00:41:07   anybody interested in the watch and its pricing

00:41:09   and the watch market read Gruber's article about this,

00:41:12   we'll link to it in the show notes,

00:41:13   it's very, very good and very relevant to this,

00:41:15   because he knows, clearly he knows more

00:41:17   about the watch market than we do. (laughs)

00:41:19   And so I think, you know, it's looking very, very likely,

00:41:24   based on how much watches that are just made

00:41:28   from these metals usually sell for.

00:41:30   Yeah, I think it's safe to say the gold one

00:41:33   is probably gonna be at least $5,000,

00:41:36   probably at least $10,000,

00:41:38   just because of the amount of gold in it.

00:41:39   I mean, gold is very, very expensive, and it's solid gold.

00:41:42   It's just a lot of metal, as we said.

00:41:44   So the question, I think, is,

00:41:47   you know, you can look at this and you can say,

00:41:50   all right, well, Apple might be in this

00:41:52   for just wanting the kind of margins

00:41:55   that these kind of high-fashion things command,

00:41:57   especially something like this.

00:41:59   It's made of, it's priced as some multiple

00:42:03   of a precious metal's value.

00:42:06   So it's already, you know, it's a decent multiple

00:42:09   of an already expensive source material.

00:42:12   So you can look at it and say,

00:42:13   well maybe Apple wants just the margins.

00:42:15   Maybe Apple wants that kind of product in their line,

00:42:19   you know, to be fancy and profitable.

00:42:22   The other possibility that I thought of is maybe,

00:42:25   you know, maybe Apple's goal here is not necessarily

00:42:29   to make a ton of money on watches,

00:42:32   but to sell a lot of watches.

00:42:34   and that many people, because a watch is something you wear,

00:42:37   it's an accessory, it's a fashion item,

00:42:39   it's a, you know, they kept saying personal,

00:42:42   intimate, all this stuff, but it really is,

00:42:44   it's a fashion item.

00:42:45   Maybe they realize that there's a whole lot of people who,

00:42:49   any smartwatch out there today,

00:42:51   like all the Google Wear ones and the other ones,

00:42:54   they're so ugly, and they're so like, you know,

00:42:57   kinda cheap relative to these fancy watches,

00:42:59   like maybe Apple has to offer watches

00:43:03   in these high-end metals that are at these high-end prices

00:43:06   just to get a certain group of people

00:43:08   to even consider wearing and buying them.

00:43:10   So maybe their goal is,

00:43:13   we want these people to be wearing an Apple Watch,

00:43:16   using it with their Apple phone,

00:43:18   and maybe the only way to get them to wear a watch

00:43:20   is to offer a stainless steel one and to offer a gold one.

00:43:24   And so there's gonna be certain people

00:43:25   for whom that is the case,

00:43:27   where they won't consider a cheap plastic

00:43:30   and aluminum electronic watch.

00:43:32   that'll be too geeky for them,

00:43:33   but if you make it out of this high-end stuff,

00:43:37   then you can reach a certain number of customers

00:43:39   who otherwise would never consider

00:43:40   wearing a computer watch on their wrist.

00:43:42   - I don't know if it's about reaching that audience,

00:43:45   'cause I understand wearing something

00:43:47   is very, very different than just holding it,

00:43:49   but I don't think that it looks less geeky enough,

00:43:54   but when you dress it up, when you doll it up

00:43:56   and make the fancy wristbands and all that other stuff,

00:43:58   which by the way, those wrist things

00:43:59   are probably gonna cost a bazillion dollars too,

00:44:02   But if you dress it all up, it's still a watch

00:44:05   that's basically a screen.

00:44:06   It's still a little computer on your wrist.

00:44:08   So I don't know how much geekiness you are removing.

00:44:14   If there's some audience out there that says,

00:44:16   "Well, I don't wanna wear anything.

00:44:17   "I don't wanna wear something

00:44:18   "that looks like I'm wearing a computer on my wrist."

00:44:19   It's still gonna look like you're wearing a computer

00:44:21   on your wrist no matter how nice the band it is

00:44:22   and no matter what precious metals it's made of.

00:44:26   And by the way, I looked up on the Wikipedia page,

00:44:28   BeblinGood is a good whose demand

00:44:30   is proportional to its price.

00:44:31   So it's like, as we raise the price,

00:44:34   suddenly the demand goes up because all it's,

00:44:36   I'm not interested in an $8,000 watch because who cares,

00:44:38   but make that same watch $30,000

00:44:40   and suddenly I'm interested because,

00:44:41   well, I have a $30,000 Apple watch.

00:44:44   So anyway, I don't know if Apple's going to be entering

00:44:46   that realm and the obsolescence issue is definitely there.

00:44:49   The angle that I've seen thrown around about that is like,

00:44:52   well, that's even more of a status.

00:44:53   It was like, I bought this $30,000 watch.

00:44:55   It's going to be a paperweight in two years

00:44:57   because the new one's going to be out.

00:44:58   Look how rich I am.

00:44:59   It's like the, I am rich application, but.

00:45:01   - Yeah, and I think the obsolescence thing

00:45:04   is gonna prove to be a really big deal

00:45:07   and a really big problem for Apple

00:45:08   trying to sell these premium price watches

00:45:10   because even if you're some really super rich guy

00:45:15   in a place that really values showing your wealth like that,

00:45:19   of which there are many places,

00:45:20   although I'm pretty sure that the tech geek world

00:45:23   in California is pretty much the opposite of that,

00:45:25   which is interesting and worth talking about on its own,

00:45:26   but even if you're in a place like that,

00:45:30   If you have a $30,000 watch, that's a really cool thing.

00:45:33   That's like, wow, that's a nice watch.

00:45:36   That's gonna be a family heirloom.

00:45:38   If you have a $10,000 gold iWatch

00:45:42   that's three years ago's model,

00:45:45   that's like carrying around an iPad One.

00:45:47   - It's not even gonna work anymore.

00:45:49   Once the battery is dead, you'll have to replace the battery

00:45:52   and I don't know how long they're gonna,

00:45:54   how long you're gonna be able to find

00:45:56   the exact, correct, weird little battery

00:45:58   that fits inside there, 'cause it's gonna,

00:46:00   It's not going to be easily replaceable.

00:46:01   You're going to have to take the whole thing apart

00:46:02   and find the weird bet.

00:46:03   Like, it's just not going to have longevity

00:46:06   of the other devices, which may be fine.

00:46:08   Like, I talked about the Mac 2FX last time.

00:46:10   I think I tried to guess about the prices,

00:46:11   and someone either emailed or tweeted today

00:46:13   that actually I was low in my price.

00:46:15   Like, how much was the Mac 2FX in today's dollars?

00:46:18   And some were in to say that it was like $22,000,

00:46:21   not like $16,000.

00:46:22   Oh my god.

00:46:22   And so that's the other thing where it's like,

00:46:24   well, Apple's going to sell a watch for $10,000.

00:46:27   That's outrageous.

00:46:27   Like, you can spec a $10,000 Mac Pro right now.

00:46:29   It's all about what do you think is worth $10,000?

00:46:32   Is the utility provided by the Mac Pro worth $10,000?

00:46:36   Maybe if you work at Pixar, right?

00:46:38   And that's a tool that you need to make your movie

00:46:40   that's gonna make hundreds of millions of dollars,

00:46:42   you can justify buying a $10,000 computer.

00:46:44   Is $10,000 close to the price of goods in the Mac Pro?

00:46:47   I think the margins are probably pretty good on that,

00:46:49   but Apple has to buy the GPUs from AMD

00:46:52   and it's gotta buy the CPUs from Intel

00:46:54   and it's manufactured nicely

00:46:55   and it has to buy the RAM from somebody.

00:46:58   It's in the ballpark.

00:46:59   maybe, you know, 100% margins or something.

00:47:02   It's not like, you know, well, the Mac Pro goes $3,000,

00:47:07   $5,000, and then goes $50,000.

00:47:09   Like there's no 50 or $100,000 Mac Pro,

00:47:11   except for that like weird red one.

00:47:12   - There was a million dollars.

00:47:13   - Weird red one that Marco tried to bid on,

00:47:16   but thanks to collectors, I don't remember.

00:47:17   - I got dramatically out of it.

00:47:19   - So I still think we have to watch to see, huh,

00:47:22   to see what the top end price is gonna be.

00:47:25   And this is one of those cases where I actually will be

00:47:27   looking at sort of the eye supply type of breakdown not so much from my supply

00:47:30   but from people who know things about jewelry and stuff to say what it's

00:47:35   difficult because again as we were putting it out in his article he was

00:47:38   comparing it against Rolexes and stuff but those aren't priced based on the

00:47:42   goods and labor plus a percentage either they're priced based on how much they

00:47:45   think the market will bear which has almost no connection to they you know

00:47:49   anything else in them it's just like the scale goes crazy where you just it's the

00:47:52   same exact watch with the same movement you do it in gold if you just take that

00:47:56   Other watch and its movement and then add in the price of the weight of the gold

00:47:59   plus a little bit extra for like shaping it into that shape and then like triple it and that's the price of the gold one if

00:48:05   for no reason just because well, you know just because

00:48:08   so I

00:48:10   You know

00:48:11   I think this is mostly academic because as soon as you start entering into the realm of

00:48:15   multi whether it's multi thousand dollar computers like the Mac Pro or

00:48:18   Multipousand-dollar watches like this hop and I watches so few people buy those like that's not how Apple's going to make its money

00:48:24   It's not like oh apples getting greedy like they are not making their money by selling $10,000 Mac pros

00:48:29   They're not gonna make their money by sending selling $10,000. I watch is there god damn it this

00:48:34   Maybe this is it maybe like I'm entering the eye touch phase of my life anyway

00:48:39   They're not gonna make their money that way when you see in the big financials

00:48:44   they have to sell tons and tons of the the cheaper ones, but

00:48:49   If Apple really wants to move into the the realm of fashion

00:48:53   Which I think is probably a good move at this point as technology shrinks and as the price of compute drops to zero

00:48:59   That's a better market to be in than trying to sell technology

00:49:03   It's a typical Apple move to say well

00:49:08   We should get the high-end like we want all the best customers in the market and that includes the people who buy ten thousand on

00:49:13   Mac pros like we want some of that market. We're not just gonna say oh well. They'll have to buy different computer

00:49:18   But you know it's like look at PC. Do we want the the people who buy $300 PCs?

00:49:23   No, we want the whole top end of the market from like $900 up to 10,000

00:49:26   We want that whole market and we know we're not going to sell a lot of $10,000 max, but we're going to offer one

00:49:31   And I think they know they're not going to sell a lot of $10,000 watches

00:49:35   But they're going to offer one

00:49:36   And I think that leads to the next question about these watches these gold watches and the bands and everything like that

00:49:42   How the hell do you buy one? We talked about this a little bit in the last show

00:49:45   But Scott McDelty had a good tweet today. He said if I'm buying a $20,000 watch

00:49:49   I don't want to raise my hand so some teenager with an iPad can check me out

00:49:52   He's referring to the experience of going to an Apple store and trying to I wonder if you do self-checkout with $20,000 gold

00:49:59   They go think can I just scan this take a picture with my phone? I'm just walking out. Yeah, how are they gonna sell this?

00:50:04   Yeah, well a couple other people pointed out like are they even gonna stock this in the store?

00:50:08   Yeah, like is it behind is it behind a big case with a key?

00:50:11   No, I don't think so

00:50:12   Like is it under a jewelry counter or their separate section of the store where there's like a jeweler and a velvet like

00:50:16   The just the logistics of how do you let someone see this this watch with this band with this X?

00:50:22   Is it all gonna be through third party sellers? Like I don't understand how they're gonna sell this in the Apple Store

00:50:28   I mean, I'm guessing first of all

00:50:30   I bet it's I bet it's gonna be very rare to actually find one of these in stock in an Apple Store

00:50:35   Second of all, I I would I would go also Gruber said this I I would say that

00:50:41   There there has to be some kind of store redesign on the horizon

00:50:45   I'm guessing one of the reasons why Apple has hired people like Angela Ahrens, however, you say her name. I'm sorry

00:50:52   one of the reasons why people has hired why Apple has hired people who are from

00:50:56   luxury retail brands and luxury retail experience and fashion retail experience is

00:51:01   Because they're they're most likely working on a major redesign to their stores to integrate things like to integrate the watch first

00:51:09   and then potentially future fashionable items or even just a redesign in general. I think their stores are

00:51:15   They're okay, but they don't really have like an upscale feel anymore

00:51:20   They did when they first launched but now there's just too many people. It's kind of old. It's plenty upscale

00:51:26   It's just yeah, it's just too many damn people there like and they're not gonna solve that problem

00:51:30   That's that's the issue is like they could solve that something by opening different kinds of stores like boutique stores or whatever

00:51:35   but even within their current product line,

00:51:38   like the Beats headphones, the iPhone 5C,

00:51:41   and basically just like the existence of all the cases

00:51:44   for their existing phones.

00:51:45   There's already that problem of when you go into a store,

00:51:48   you say, which phone do I want?

00:51:49   You can go from table to table

00:51:50   and see all the different colors.

00:51:52   A lot of the time you're like, which case do I want?

00:51:53   And the Apple Store people are really good about,

00:51:55   oh, we'll just take that case out of the box

00:51:57   and put it on to see how you fit.

00:51:58   But like, it's a very informal process.

00:52:00   And once you get into, and the Beats headphones,

00:52:02   like I know they come in all sorts of colors

00:52:04   and everything too.

00:52:05   it's more like picking out clothes where you have to have,

00:52:08   or I don't know what the best equivalent is.

00:52:09   If you can mix and match things

00:52:11   and you wanna see which combination you like,

00:52:13   do I like the iPhone 5C in this color with this color case?

00:52:17   Do I want this?

00:52:18   If it's more than just picking

00:52:19   from one of five different colors that are available,

00:52:21   once you get into combinations,

00:52:23   they have to come up with a way to make that an experience

00:52:27   that people want.

00:52:29   Even if they don't buy it in the Apple Store,

00:52:31   even if they buy it online from the online store,

00:52:33   They want to go to the store and see what does the, you know, maybe they'll have like

00:52:37   dummy watches like what does this this band look like with this watch and the watch itself

00:52:42   is not gold, but it's just like maybe you just do it all with the aluminum one because

00:52:45   they're all compatible anyway, or maybe they have one that's painted gold like it's a fake

00:52:49   one.

00:52:50   I don't I don't know how they deal with that.

00:52:51   I'm not sure that the bands are going to be sold separately.

00:52:54   Do we know that they have some separately because people are going to want multiple

00:52:57   bands for the same watch.

00:52:59   I'm guessing, like the cheap one, the sport one,

00:53:03   which is probably what they mean

00:53:04   when they say it starts at 350,

00:53:06   and it basically is like, you know, it's aluminum,

00:53:08   it doesn't even have sapphire, it's aluminum and glass,

00:53:10   it's basically an iPhone construction,

00:53:12   and it has these like neon rubber bands, basically.

00:53:16   I'm guessing they're gonna use that as a differentiator

00:53:20   so that if you want the nice,

00:53:22   like one of the metal or leather bands,

00:53:25   I bet you gotta buy up.

00:53:26   I bet you gotta get the thousand dollar stainless steel

00:53:28   and Sapphire model.

00:53:30   - But they can't do that.

00:53:30   They have to sell them separately.

00:53:32   As long as they're physically compatible,

00:53:33   and I think they are,

00:53:34   they have to sell them separately

00:53:36   because the rich people are gonna wanna mix and match

00:53:39   within their own watch, right?

00:53:40   So you're gonna, if you want- - That's true.

00:53:42   - If you want the fancy watch,

00:53:43   they have to sell them like that.

00:53:45   But even regardless,

00:53:47   there are many possible combinations.

00:53:51   You have to provide a store environment

00:53:53   where people can safely,

00:53:55   and without you getting robbed all the time,

00:53:57   try out these combinations.

00:53:59   And that's it.

00:53:59   And like, when someone, as Scott said, basically,

00:54:01   you know, in a snarky way,

00:54:03   when someone is going to drop $20,000 on a watch,

00:54:06   they don't want to wade through a sea of people angry

00:54:08   about their, you know, their iCloud,

00:54:11   losing all their photos of their kids

00:54:12   or whatever is going on, you know, in an Apple store,

00:54:15   to get someone to help them to see,

00:54:17   like, they want it to be a nice, quiet environment,

00:54:19   and they want someone to pay attention to them

00:54:22   and serve their needs,

00:54:23   because they're going to drop a huge amount of money.

00:54:24   That's just what they're used to.

00:54:25   So I don't I don't think you can sell a $20,000 watch in that kind of store unless especially if there are options

00:54:31   There's no options like they decide before they go in they they wade through the massive humanity

00:54:35   They find someone to check them out and maybe like like Casey said maybe they don't even have them in the store

00:54:40   Maybe they mail them to you afterwards or whatever that's feasible. But as soon as it that you have to choose and like try on

00:54:46   Different sizes and see what this watch looks like with this band or whatever current Apple Store is not equipped for that in any way

00:54:53   Well, but is that entirely true? I think you're you're mostly right, but what just occurred to me was the Grand Central store is

00:55:01   Suddenly looking like a much better layout than I initially thought and if you haven't been to the Grand Central store

00:55:06   It's like several different rooms that are connected of course, but it's not like they're these big wide

00:55:13   Hallways if you will between the rooms like one of the rooms. I think was where the beats were was like upstairs

00:55:19   Is that right Marco? You've probably been there

00:55:21   You can have like a department you're thinking of.

00:55:23   Like, I want to go up to the jewelry department.

00:55:26   That works in the Grand Central store,

00:55:28   but we know what most Apple stores look like.

00:55:29   It's a big rectangle in a mall.

00:55:31   - Sure, and that's why I think you're mostly right.

00:55:33   But it just occurred to me that maybe

00:55:34   the Grand Central store almost becomes the flagship store

00:55:38   rather than the Fifth Avenue one,

00:55:39   because it's got these like different sections

00:55:41   in different rooms.

00:55:42   And I think one of you said something

00:55:43   about like personal shopping earlier.

00:55:45   Maybe there's, you know, the velvet rope

00:55:46   before the Apple Watch room in the Grand Central store.

00:55:49   But I agree with you, Jon.

00:55:51   I don't know what we're going to do about the regular Apple stores, which are easily

00:55:55   as much about getting help as they are about buying a product.

00:55:59   That was speaking of redesign Apple stores.

00:56:00   That was one of the theories behind what's in that big giant white box other than a hands-on

00:56:04   area, which guess what?

00:56:05   It turned out to be hands-on area.

00:56:06   Although if we take that as a preview, I don't think we can.

00:56:10   Like it had all the watches and those little sticks like rotating.

00:56:13   I don't think that's the store environment.

00:56:15   There just looks like a press hands-on area, but yeah, we're all expecting some kind of

00:56:19   redesign to the Apple store.

00:56:20   It's due that you know everyone has copied their current design which means it's time for Apple to change

00:56:24   Well, they've had this design for like 10 years at least right when it when are they when they launched the first stores like 2003

00:56:32   2004 something like that and

00:56:34   We're talking about design like people might think we're thinking like are they gonna do dark colored wood on the tables or a different floor?

00:56:39   But no we're talking about is like you know design is how it works like what where do you go in the store?

00:56:44   To to try out the the iPhones are like now

00:56:48   Now they just have everything on tables because you can just walk up to it, try it out, get

00:56:50   a feel for it, maybe get a little bit of help.

00:56:52   But if it's going to be, "I need to see this watch with this band with this set of Beats

00:56:55   headphones with this," whatever, you need someone behind a counter to help you.

00:57:01   It's a totally different environment.

00:57:03   I don't think you can do that freeform.

00:57:04   I don't think you can have people sort of self just wandering around the store, entertaining

00:57:08   themselves and then if they need help, they'll come and get you or they'll ask you if you're

00:57:12   finding everything or whatever.

00:57:13   You can't have someone rummaging through like a bin of gold Apple watches and trying the

00:57:18   different bands and everything like I just don't know how it's going to work.

00:57:21   I think maybe the Apple edition watches won't even be available in regular Apple

00:57:26   stores. You have to go to the fancy Apple stores and no one will go to the fancy

00:57:29   Apple store except for rich people because they'll only sell, you know, I wish

00:57:33   this is not actually happening, but it wouldn't be great if they only sold like

00:57:35   Mac Pros. I'm sorry, the only Mac we have here is the Mac Pro. I know nobody needs

00:57:40   this and I know you wouldn't even want it, but.

00:57:41   This is this is the problem I see like with with getting into a luxury store and

00:57:46   high-end watches that cost $10,000 for a gold one.

00:57:50   This isn't Apple.

00:57:53   Like this doesn't fit the culture of the company,

00:57:56   the people, the stores, the customers.

00:57:59   It just doesn't fit.

00:58:01   - But it does though.

00:58:02   It fits because they're going after the watch market

00:58:06   from 300 bucks and up.

00:58:08   And just like they went for the PC market

00:58:10   from $900 and up.

00:58:13   And it just so happens the end up in both cases

00:58:15   ends in five figures.

00:58:17   - What I said earlier about some people

00:58:18   might only wear solid gold or whatever,

00:58:20   like that's one thing.

00:58:21   I think if we would have predicted

00:58:24   how Apple would approach this,

00:58:25   the most Apple-like way to approach this

00:58:27   would be to make one model that was so good on its merits

00:58:31   that people would forget about wearing solid gold watches

00:58:35   and be willing to wear this one because it's so good,

00:58:39   and even though it's not made of solid gold.

00:58:42   And that's not what Apple is doing here.

00:58:44   And I think it's worth questioning why.

00:58:46   And I've seen a few people that seem a little bit alarmed,

00:58:51   possibly why Apple is going this way.

00:58:54   And I think there is cause for concern,

00:58:57   because what I said earlier,

00:58:59   where if they think they can only get people

00:59:02   to wear a watch if it's made of these premium materials

00:59:05   and costs a lot of money, like certain people,

00:59:07   if that's the case, okay.

00:59:09   And if that's why they're doing it, that's interesting.

00:59:12   But if Apple's doing it because they just want to be

00:59:17   in the business of selling $10,000 watches,

00:59:19   that's kind of weird from Apple.

00:59:22   Like if you think about, and granted,

00:59:24   I know the world is way bigger than us.

00:59:25   I'm very much aware of this,

00:59:27   and I know that we do not represent the world at large.

00:59:31   But can you imagine anybody we know,

00:59:34   let's say we go out, let's say we're at a conference

00:59:37   or something, a geek conference, or even just at work,

00:59:41   you're at work somewhere, you know,

00:59:42   you're programmers at work with other programmers

00:59:44   and people in offices.

00:59:46   Like, do you think when this comes out,

00:59:49   do you think if you're at a bar at WWDC,

00:59:53   and if you look around, will anybody who,

00:59:57   in the entire conference, will any attendee

00:59:59   of that conference be wearing a gold Apple Watch?

01:00:02   - Yeah, anybody who had a big exit from their startup will.

01:00:04   - Will they?

01:00:05   I don't think so.

01:00:06   I think the startup people are still wearing

01:00:08   jeans and t-shirts.

01:00:09   I don't see that happening.

01:00:10   - I know, but they won't have a gold one,

01:00:12   'cause gold is tacky,

01:00:13   but they'll have the stainless one for sure.

01:00:15   - Yeah, maybe, but still, see this is the problem.

01:00:18   In this business, and in this culture,

01:00:21   and in much of Apple's culture,

01:00:23   what is in fashion and what is socially acceptable

01:00:26   is to be relatively understated for the most part,

01:00:28   and to not be super ostentatious

01:00:32   with big gold jewelry and stuff.

01:00:34   That's not cool.

01:00:36   I would feel like a (thud)

01:00:39   toll wearing a gold Apple watch.

01:00:41   - Oh, you'd get over it.

01:00:43   - I just can't imagine anybody we know,

01:00:46   like any of our friends,

01:00:48   being willing to wear a gold Apple watch in public,

01:00:51   'cause you'd be surrounded by a whole bunch of people

01:00:53   who would all recognize it

01:00:56   and know that you paid 10 grand for that.

01:00:58   - All right, well, hold on.

01:01:01   I could not possibly disagree more

01:01:03   with like every freaking thing you just said.

01:01:04   (laughing)

01:01:06   So let's start with it would be remiss of me not to point out that you're saying a gold watch is

01:01:11   Ridiculous and silly and a waste of money yet your car was to be frank not cheap

01:01:17   And I would argue that if you really think about the purpose of your car especially in America

01:01:24   It makes no damn sense. You can't go more than 70 anywhere sure you can get to 70 very quickly

01:01:30   But there's no purpose in it and really I don't as much as I love your car

01:01:35   It's a silly waste of money for America. I completely agree. So let's start there

01:01:40   the other thing is I think you're taking to myopic of you of what you expect of

01:01:45   Apple and our friends because our friends I

01:01:48   Agree, none of us would wear solid gold watches. It would be silly. It would be ridiculous and it would be very tasteless but

01:01:56   You were saying earlier that you thought that maybe the bands would kind of be you get a band with the watch and that's that

01:02:03   especially with the cheap one and I'm looking at the picture of the Apple watch sport on the web on Apple's website and it's

01:02:09   very clear that the little disengage button for lack of a better word to

01:02:13   Switch out the bands is there and there's this like peachy pinky

01:02:17   salmony colored band on this particular picture and

01:02:20   It's zoomed way into the bottom of the watch and those buttons are there so you can remove the bands and all I keep thinking

01:02:26   about is

01:02:28   Apple seems to be going more and more towards

01:02:31   making everything a little more personal. You see evidence of this and the fact that there's now

01:02:36   not just one iPhone that is black and you will like it. There's not only three colors,

01:02:42   but there's two sizes and that's eliminating the 5s and the 5c.

01:02:46   There's a commercial that came out not long ago where these beautiful Macs were tainted or enhanced depending on how you look at it

01:02:55   with all of these stickers. And I think when it comes to the watch, they would be out of their day of mind

01:03:01   minds not to offer a hundred different bands because you can personalize and make it match

01:03:08   your outfit if you're into that or you can make it the opposite of your outfit if you want to

01:03:12   call attention to it in the same way that sometimes people might sport more than one case. I happen to

01:03:19   use a case for my phone on my 5s I have the apple leather case but even I have an additional case

01:03:24   for which is a battery case kind of like a mophie but an off-brand for when I'm out at like a

01:03:29   conference or something like that.

01:03:31   So I am like the least fashion conscious person in the entire world and yet I have more than

01:03:35   one case for my iPhone.

01:03:37   Although I guess to be fair it's more about utility than it is fashion.

01:03:40   But I guess what I'm saying is all of our views, and I'm including myself in this, are

01:03:47   centered around our friends would never be into a $30,000 solid gold watch.

01:03:53   But celebrities could be, Wall Street could be, there's so many people that could be reached

01:03:59   by this. And just because we don't think it makes sense and it doesn't really add up in our heads,

01:04:05   doesn't mean that it won't add up for anyone else in the world. And that's also a good point,

01:04:09   that we're taking a very myopic American view of this. And from what I've gathered from Ben Thompson

01:04:14   and others, that Asia takes a very different view of this. And a lot of Asia, or so it appears,

01:04:21   is about expressing your wealth as extravagantly as you possibly can.

01:04:25   >> BRIAN KARDELL Oh, yeah, and that's what I'm saying. Like, I don't mean to say that this is

01:04:29   everybody, but that this is such a big part of Apple culture that this seems to be working

01:04:36   against and conflicting with. >> MATT FESTA But the Apple culture,

01:04:39   previously, had been based on technology. They're getting into fashion with this,

01:04:42   and when you get into fashion, everything that comes with it is, you know, like, functionally,

01:04:47   all the watches, like, the more expensive ones, it's not like they get, like, better battery life

01:04:53   or anything like that, like they're functionally the same. And so in that respect everyone,

01:04:58   it's like the Mac, hey, if you can afford the lowest price, well, now that all the non-retina

01:05:04   is gone, anyway, the lowest price of retina MacBook Pro, that is a reasonable price that

01:05:09   someone who has a good job could get, they could buy that. And it works really well,

01:05:15   and it's a very similar experience to spending 10 grand on a Mac Pro because really you're not

01:05:19   you're not gonna use the extra power

01:05:21   that the Mac Pro provides.

01:05:22   So if you can afford the cheapest watch,

01:05:26   Apple Watch, you will have the same experience

01:05:28   as someone who bought the more expensive one.

01:05:30   So it's not like they're saying we are no longer egalitarian.

01:05:33   We don't believe that our technology

01:05:35   should be accessible to everybody.

01:05:37   It's like I said before, they want the watch market

01:05:39   from a couple hundred bucks and up,

01:05:41   and it just so happens the and up goes up really high.

01:05:43   And the fashion market, the and up goes really high

01:05:46   without an additional utility.

01:05:49   At least in the Mac Pro, you can argue

01:05:50   that there's some utility that you're not tapping into.

01:05:52   In the fashion market, there is no extra utility

01:05:54   for a Gucci bag or some expensive pair of shoes.

01:05:57   In fact, there's often less utility,

01:05:59   'cause that's the way fashion works, right?

01:06:01   If Apple wants to be in the fashion market,

01:06:04   and I think this, again, I think this is a good plan,

01:06:06   because long-term, as the price of compute

01:06:09   goes down and down, that's what you're selling,

01:06:13   is a fashion device.

01:06:14   You're selling, yes, a solution to make your life better,

01:06:16   but especially for things that you wear

01:06:18   or attach to your body,

01:06:19   the fashion market is just different.

01:06:20   And Apple entering into that market,

01:06:22   it's not being on Apple-like if Apple thinks

01:06:25   that they want to be also to sell fashion items.

01:06:29   Because once Apple says,

01:06:31   "We want to be in the fashion business,"

01:06:33   then them behaving as everyone else

01:06:35   in the fashion industry does is still Apple-like

01:06:37   because Apple is entering into that market.

01:06:39   It's like, I don't think it's out of character.

01:06:41   I think it's just, it would be wrong for Apple

01:06:43   to try to sell fashion devices like they are Macs

01:06:47   or even iPhones, right?

01:06:48   Because I mean, iPhones are kind of, you know,

01:06:50   do you wear an iPhone?

01:06:51   No, but you do keep it in your pocket.

01:06:52   It's more personal than the Mac.

01:06:54   It's like a continuum.

01:06:55   But once you're strapping things onto you,

01:06:56   it gets, or even beats headphones

01:06:58   once you're putting them on your head,

01:06:59   that becomes very, very different.

01:07:01   And so I think they have to change their strategy

01:07:03   of how they sell into that market.

01:07:05   And again, I don't think, like,

01:07:07   we're getting all upset about the high-end watches

01:07:08   and everything.

01:07:09   They're mostly gonna sell the cheap ones.

01:07:11   Like that's all Apple cares about for their bottom line.

01:07:13   You know, but if you're going to be in that market and not sell the high-end ones

01:07:17   maybe it like it makes you lesser like

01:07:20   The respected fashion brands are not always the ones that only sell super expensive stuff

01:07:26   I bet even Rolex has affordable models or reasonable models for watches watches are weird because

01:07:31   The utility of them is basically zero at this point

01:07:34   So it's entirely about you know

01:07:36   Fashion and all that other stuff except for maybe I guess like sport watches for running and being waterproof and stuff like that

01:07:41   But Apple's not in that market either. I think if we see them enter another fashion category

01:07:46   That has more of a utility value. I don't know Apple shoes. I can't that I don't think Nike would like that very much

01:07:52   We'll see how they behave in that respect. I guess Beats is another thing when we'll see it

01:07:57   How do they deal with the Beats headphones because the utility is you know, it's kind of there and those things but

01:08:04   But they're you know, they're popular because they're fashion accessories. So

01:08:08   I I don't think this is a sign of doom and gloom

01:08:13   in fact

01:08:13   I think Apple is out ahead of the other technology companies in realizing that

01:08:17   Long-term, I mean they've been ahead out for years like selling things based on the amount of RAM and the CPU speed was was no

01:08:24   Good, so Apple stopped doing that way before everybody else and now they're there

01:08:28   I think ahead of the other people and saying we're going to sell goods where the technology

01:08:31   Isn't practically isn't even a factor in the price the exact same CPU the exact same screen the exact same storage

01:08:38   and a price range from hundreds to tens of thousands.

01:08:42   That and the other technology companies

01:08:44   would be like, what the hell is Apple doing?

01:08:45   But other fashion companies are like, oh, we do that.

01:08:47   We sell leather shoes, price range from a couple hundred

01:08:50   bucks to a thousand bucks,

01:08:51   and it's all made of the same leather.

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01:11:23   - All right, so we're not quite done with the Apple Watch.

01:11:25   - We're never gonna be done with the Apple Watch.

01:11:26   - No, we're not.

01:11:27   So we got-- - I love that we're probably

01:11:29   not even gonna get to iOS 8 at all.

01:11:32   I don't think we will and I'm not kidding.

01:11:34   This is still a follow up just to be clear.

01:11:36   Yes.

01:11:37   We learned a little more about the offline capacity or not capacity, features of the

01:11:43   Apple Watch.

01:11:45   And apparently an Apple rep said that the watch's offline abilities include Apple

01:11:50   Pay, music via Bluetooth and via storage within the watch itself, activity tracking and some

01:11:57   apps, which makes it more useful than I think most of us expected, actually.

01:12:02   The Apple Pay one, as I mentioned this in the last show, is mysterious because there's

01:12:06   no Touch ID on the thing.

01:12:07   So you're going to be able to Apple Pay with it, but Touch ID won't be involved at all,

01:12:12   which gets back to the earlier point about getting the card present rate if you just

01:12:15   use NFC.

01:12:16   So, yeah, Touch ID not being a factor there reinforces that.

01:12:22   Music, Bluetooth, yeah, fine.

01:12:25   Some apps?

01:12:27   That gets confusing to me because what wouldn't, you know, I guess.

01:12:32   This is the last we were discussing last time, like, is it a bunch of binaries that you ship

01:12:36   over to the watch that you run on the watch using the watch's CPU?

01:12:40   Is it like CarPlay where the phone is projecting a UI into someplace else?

01:12:43   I seriously doubt that.

01:12:44   But then why would it only be some apps?

01:12:46   Why couldn't you run all the apps?

01:12:47   Or are there some applications that are going to communicate over ad hoc Wi-Fi to your phone?

01:12:51   I don't know.

01:12:52   I don't even know if Apple knows the answer to all these questions yet.

01:12:54   But but yeah, the offline capabilities of the watch,

01:12:58   I would imagine that anything you see people doing in an Apple ad

01:13:02   don't assume they always have their phone in their pocket when they do it.

01:13:07   Like they're out for a run or whatever doing like checking.

01:13:10   I guess it can count your steps like it can't do GPS,

01:13:13   but it can do something offline. I don't know.

01:13:15   This is they're limited by physics here.

01:13:19   But I think their goal, five, 10 years from now,

01:13:24   is to make the Apple Watch be able to do everything

01:13:27   that an iPhone can do.

01:13:28   Obviously, that's a long ways off,

01:13:29   but that's where they're headed.

01:13:31   The fact that it's a companion device now just always

01:13:33   reminds me of how iOS devices-- before they were iOS devices--

01:13:37   were companion devices to your Mac and now aren't anymore.

01:13:41   Real time follow up from friend of the show Ben Thompson.

01:13:43   He said, if the watch loses contact with your skin, which

01:13:47   which you would know by way of the sensors

01:13:49   on the bottom of the watch,

01:13:50   you have to reenter the PIN code.

01:13:52   I'm not sure what PIN code that is.

01:13:53   I'm assuming there's either the shared PIN code

01:13:55   with your phone or maybe a watch-specific PIN code,

01:13:58   but nevertheless, you have to identify yourself as yourself

01:14:02   if it loses contact with your skin.

01:14:04   - See, I kind of disagree with Jon,

01:14:06   your assumption that the watch will become

01:14:10   basically the new digital hub.

01:14:12   - No, no, I'm not saying the new digital hub.

01:14:13   I'm saying the fact that it's tethered to the iPhone now

01:14:15   purely a limitation of technology and that eventually if it had the storage capacity,

01:14:22   battery power and everything else, like it could be, you know, if it could have its own

01:14:25   GPS, its own Wi-Fi, its own cell radio, everything, if you could take all the technology and the

01:14:30   iPhone and put it there, they totally would, they just can't at this point.

01:14:33   I'm not, you know, so I'm sure this is one of your like, well on an infinite timescale

01:14:37   arguments.

01:14:38   It's not infinite, but like, you know, you can imagine it, like, it's, that's not outside

01:14:41   realm of possibility. Like if you look at, you can do it with a big ugly watch right now, right?

01:14:47   I see this, I mean, I've said so many times before, like, it is unwise to bet against or

01:14:52   compete with the smartphone. The smartphone almost always wins. The smartphone is amazing and awesome

01:14:59   and extremely powerful and disruptive to everything and it is unwise to bet against the

01:15:05   smartphone. The watch as a smartphone accessory makes a lot of sense. As its

01:15:12   own device or as an eventual replacement to the smartphone, I see that I have a

01:15:18   hard time with that because... It's not gonna replace it. I'm just saying it

01:15:20   will be independent of like you'll be able to do more. You won't need to always

01:15:23   carry your phone around when you want to use your watch to do something the watch

01:15:26   can do. Obviously there's only so many things you could do on a screen the size

01:15:29   of a postage stamp, right? The screen is not going to be the new 5.5 inch iWatch,

01:15:34   Right, it's always going to be a small little thing

01:15:36   But the thing is there are things you can't do on the Apple watch now

01:15:39   I think I said I watch nine times. Sorry

01:15:41   There's things you can't do on the Apple watch now

01:15:43   That you can't do not because it would be a bad idea to do them on a watch

01:15:47   But simply because it needs to have the iPhone next to it for this thing

01:15:50   Oh, you don't have any kit like connection to the internet for example

01:15:53   Well, the I watch doesn't have one so you want to do anything has anything to do with the internet

01:15:57   Like just receive a text message if you're out for a run look up at your watch text message

01:16:01   says, "Oh, try to be home in five minutes

01:16:02   "because you have to pick up the kids or whatever."

01:16:04   You can't see that unless you also have your iPhone with you.

01:16:06   That's a technical limitation

01:16:08   that if Apple could get rid of right now, they would,

01:16:11   and you're maybe five, eight years out

01:16:13   from them being able to do that.

01:16:15   - Okay, yeah, I'll give you that.

01:16:16   That is fair.

01:16:18   And I realize, Casey, I mean, really,

01:16:20   the Apple Watch, it seems like Fast Text

01:16:24   is the killer app for this thing.

01:16:26   I assume you're not gonna wait as long

01:16:27   as you have with your iOS 7 update

01:16:29   to get your iWatch, sorry, your Apple Watch.

01:16:32   See, I did it now, you finally caught me.

01:16:33   - He'll have to, 'cause we're assuming

01:16:35   that's the only way you're gonna be able

01:16:38   to distribute Apple Watch apps is embedded inside.

01:16:41   - That's true.

01:16:42   - And I also have to update fast text merely

01:16:44   as a Trojan horse tent, it's a vehicle

01:16:46   to distribute the Watch Kids stuff.

01:16:49   - Yes, yes, yes.

01:16:51   It will happen eventually.

01:16:52   Actually, I just told someone on Twitter,

01:16:54   I don't remember who it was, that at this point

01:16:56   I'm thinking in my copious spare time,

01:16:58   as we're planning for a child, and then we'll

01:17:00   soon have said child, maybe I'll just write the darn thing over

01:17:04   in Swift.

01:17:05   And I was thinking--

01:17:05   Well, Chase and LKC, we just want you to release it.

01:17:08   You just set it back another year.

01:17:10   You can fix one auto layout bug.

01:17:11   Yeah, I know.

01:17:13   Actually, there's also an animation bug,

01:17:14   which I realized, but it's minor.

01:17:17   Anyways, I will get to it one day, maybe as I'm up feeding

01:17:21   Sprout at 2 in the morning, and then I'm

01:17:23   unable to go back to sleep.

01:17:24   Yeah, you'll be totally in the mood

01:17:26   to do iOS development at that point.

01:17:29   - You'll have like, you know, no sleep for three days

01:17:32   straight and like, you know what, I think what would be

01:17:34   a good use of my time right now is rewriting my app

01:17:38   in a new language.

01:17:39   - Screaming babies are really conducive to that kind

01:17:42   of concentration flow you need to get into

01:17:44   to do good programming.

01:17:45   - Well, look at it this way, the bar is so low

01:17:47   that even if it's rewritten kind of in a crummy way,

01:17:50   it won't look that different.

01:17:51   Oh, well.

01:17:53   So going back to the watch as I try to steer away

01:17:56   from being embarrassed and miserable.

01:17:59   One thing that was pointed out to us,

01:18:00   and we have in the show notes by Matthias,

01:18:03   but several people had said this,

01:18:05   that the Apple Watch would actually be a really great way

01:18:10   to send text messages or really picture messages

01:18:13   in languages like Chinese,

01:18:14   where single characters or images,

01:18:19   forgive me, I don't know the terminology,

01:18:21   can represent kind of complex thoughts.

01:18:24   And so this person said most simple messages can be transmitted in four or so characters.

01:18:28   And, you know, depending on how this is all implemented, that could be easier than getting a phone out,

01:18:35   unlocking it and either tapping away or doing that crazy thing that I know you can do in Japanese,

01:18:40   where you like draw simplified versions of the characters and it figures out what you need.

01:18:44   And that's a really clever point that I certainly didn't think about because I'm used to using a Germanic language or whatever,

01:18:51   where we need a whole bunch of letters to make one word,

01:18:55   let alone many words to make one thought.

01:18:57   - Yeah, one of you last week brought up the whole idea

01:18:59   of bringing back graffiti,

01:19:00   which is the simplified writing technique to draw

01:19:03   regular English alphabet.

01:19:07   - Roman.

01:19:07   - Yes, that's the letter I was looking for.

01:19:09   Without typing all the strokes,

01:19:11   so an A is just an upside down V,

01:19:13   you don't have to draw the cross stroke.

01:19:15   - Every letter is one stroke.

01:19:16   - Right, and that would obviously still be super painful

01:19:19   for us to do, we did that already with the palm things,

01:19:21   but with languages like Chinese,

01:19:24   that have pictogram type characters,

01:19:27   they have to do that now a lot of the time

01:19:29   because if you have thousands and thousands of characters

01:19:31   to choose from, no keyboard can present them to you

01:19:34   in a reasonable way anyways.

01:19:35   You have to go to the root character

01:19:37   and then it breaks up sub-menus and so on and so forth.

01:19:39   And it would actually be more efficient

01:19:40   to be able to draw little scribbles

01:19:42   to do stuff like that.

01:19:43   Now I'm not sure how fun it would be

01:19:45   to draw those scribbles with your finger

01:19:47   on a watch size screen, but someone will try it

01:19:51   And if it works, I'm sure it will become very popular.

01:19:53   I think Casey's fast text idea or Apple's own idea

01:19:56   of like you receive a text message

01:19:58   from somebody who has some sort of keyboard,

01:20:00   whether it's an iPhone or a computer or whatever,

01:20:03   and that the watch tries to interpret what was said

01:20:06   to give you like three options to reply with,

01:20:08   that type of, I just wanna push a button

01:20:11   to confirm or cancel or whatever,

01:20:14   or even just recording an audio message.

01:20:16   Almost any other option is preferable

01:20:17   to scratching anything out on that screen in that phone,

01:20:20   because the audio ones,

01:20:22   even a little animated emoji or something,

01:20:26   like a yes/no answer,

01:20:28   I would not want to draw little pictures.

01:20:30   If you're on the go,

01:20:32   once you start drawing little pictures,

01:20:33   you're gonna have to stop walking probably.

01:20:35   'Cause I don't think you can draw anything sensible

01:20:37   while you're walking.

01:20:37   Or if you are doing it,

01:20:39   you're gonna walk into a lamp post or something.

01:20:41   But while you're walking,

01:20:42   you can hold the thing up to your mouth

01:20:43   and send a little audio thing, go,

01:20:45   "Yeah, I'll be there in a second, bloop,"

01:20:47   and then it goes out.

01:20:48   That is much more feasible.

01:20:49   So like I said last week, Apple demonstrated what it thought

01:20:53   were like a whole bunch of different ways

01:20:55   that you could communicate from this tiny little screen

01:20:58   without having to type anything.

01:20:59   And I think they're just hoping that one or two of those

01:21:02   stick or work out or end up not being terrible.

01:21:06   - Yeah, I hear you.

01:21:07   I don't know, I'm curious to see how it all works.

01:21:09   And other things that people pointed out to us,

01:21:11   and we saw this a lot, was there was no apparent

01:21:16   battery indicator ever shown on the watch at any point that I'm aware of.

01:21:21   And that could mean any number of things. What I wonder is,

01:21:26   is will it be that since the watch to some degree is largely about surfacing notifications,

01:21:34   would it perhaps be that you would just get a notification when your battery is low,

01:21:40   not unlike the iPhone, but perhaps a little less annoying. And it would just say, "Hey,

01:21:45   I'm kind of running low on juice you might want to plug me in soon or alternatively

01:21:49   If you have a Bluetooth headset that will report battery status over Bluetooth

01:21:54   Well, I'm just saying that you know you could have the same kind of battery indicator for the Bluetooth headset on the status bar on

01:22:01   The iPhone that but instead of being for Bluetooth headset of course it's for the watch

01:22:06   Well your watch will report to you that all five devices that are within this little Bluetooth cloud are all low on battery power

01:22:13   Yeah, it's just like Marco with not putting the indicator badges on instapaper and stuff like that like hey

01:22:18   Did you see the t-cheese review of the new instapaper?

01:22:21   Yeah

01:22:21   He mentioned he basically mentioned that

01:22:23   About like that's what brought him back to instapaper after trying other ones was he liked

01:22:28   He overall liked it better. And one of the reasons he liked it was the lack of those badges

01:22:32   Yeah, that is a that is a stress relief thing not having the badges not even having the option to add them

01:22:38   I know a lot of people who obsessively look at the battery on their phone and

01:22:42   In some ways, like, the phone is important enough that I think you have to show the battery so people can manage it,

01:22:48   but the watch as an ancillary device, like, what are you gonna do about it? A phone,

01:22:53   it's like, you can plug it into a charger, or when you're sitting at your desk or whatever, the watch, to charge it,

01:22:58   you have to take it off. There is no, like, you have to take it off.

01:23:01   So it's like, why bother even telling you? There's nothing you can do to manage the battery on this thing.

01:23:05   Don't worry about it. Don't look at it. Obviously when the battery gets low,

01:23:08   I'm sure something will appear on the screen to say, "Hey, you're almost out of juice."

01:23:11   It's not like the thing's just gonna turn off one, you know, and you're gonna turn up to look at it

01:23:15   It'll be black and be like, oh, I guess I ran out of battery

01:23:17   Like there will be something towards the end, but the screen is super small. Like there's no status bar

01:23:22   Do they have to show like what on iOS devices on the status bar? We have a clock

01:23:26   Well, I think the watch has that covered sort of like they're not it's not gonna be a status bar on these apps showing you

01:23:30   Battery power Wi-Fi signal strength, you know Bluetooth on or off

01:23:34   Rotation lock on or off do not disturb on like all that information

01:23:39   There's just not enough room in that watch to show they just want that out of your face

01:23:42   They don't want you staring at they don't want you obsessing over

01:23:44   What the watch is doing in a particular moment?

01:23:47   So I think the combination of all those factors means don't expect to see a bunch of status stuff having to do with how the watch

01:23:53   Is doing because that's not?

01:23:55   That's not you know I

01:23:58   Don't think even regular traditional watches have ever had battery gated

01:24:02   Like you're not supposed to monitor your watch to see how it's doing and I I'm assuming they're thinking since it's so non-critical

01:24:09   Mmm battery dies like well regular watches didn't need battery indicators because they lasted months or years or forever and if

01:24:16   The battery died it would be very obvious the watch would stop moving or working

01:24:20   It'll be obvious on this too the screen won't turn on

01:24:23   I'm sure there'll be some kind of little buzz or notification or whatever thing when the battery is going down and we'll have a little

01:24:30   Warning or something, but you don't need to be monitoring it all that you don't need to be looking at it going

01:24:33   Oh, I'm not gonna check the time that often for the next right. It's like what kind of control

01:24:38   do you even have? It's not like you're choosing to, I mean I guess maybe you go

01:24:41   into a not launch apps or something but it's not like a phone where you can

01:24:46   modify your behavior like oh I'm not gonna watch that YouTube video now

01:24:48   because I'm running low on battery. No I'm guessing it's very simple I'm guessing

01:24:52   like it doesn't even tell you anything until the battery is low and then it

01:24:55   tells you that. I think you're right however I take a little bit of issue

01:24:59   with saying you don't need to manage the watch's status because what if you

01:25:03   really want to go for a run after work but you've been using the watch a lot

01:25:07   And now you're nervous as to whether or not it will last the duration of your run

01:25:11   If you're like me your runs last like 15 minutes, so it's no big deal

01:25:14   But but you know what I'm driving at but what do you like using your watch a lot?

01:25:19   I always see the watch as something that like things will come in on the wall

01:25:22   Like you're not gonna what are you doing on the watch unless it's playing games?

01:25:25   Which I don't know how that is even gonna work out

01:25:27   Like are you initiating activities from the watch that you're choosing not to initiate them from that anymore?

01:25:32   Absolutely. There were like 60 little bubbles on the watch home screen during the demo

01:25:37   There's got to be that many bubbles for a reason and also I should point out that my

01:25:42   mechanical

01:25:44   traditional citizen watch

01:25:46   Actually does have a low battery indicator and what it is is because it's one of the eco drive watches

01:25:52   Which I think Gruber might have mentioned in his

01:25:54   watch review if

01:25:56   If you don't get it within light in over the course of like two or three months or something absurd like that

01:26:01   When you look at the watch instead of ticking every single second, it'll tick in like two or three second increments

01:26:08   So it'll go from 10 seconds to 12 seconds to 14 etc

01:26:11   and that's the indicator to you that that thing's running out of juice and I

01:26:15   Don't know what happens if it completely runs out of gas so to speak

01:26:20   It may be that you have to take it in for service or it may be as simple as you just got to put some

01:26:25   Light on it, but even my traditional mechanical watch actually has a battery indicator to some degree

01:26:30   Like that's what we're talking about a thing that basically says low battery. It's not like a little bar graph like oh, I'm at 73%

01:26:36   Oh now. I'm down to 62% like that type of

01:26:39   micromanagement of the battery it's just yeah, we all hope that will go away eventually in in you know phones as well

01:26:47   But you know we're not holding your breath for that like watch their goal

01:26:50   And we'll see how well they achieve this is put it on in the morning

01:26:53   You take it off at night for a reasonable day worth of average usage

01:26:56   you should be fine. If they don't meet that goal, the lack of anything except for a low battery indicator

01:27:02   maybe you'll put a damper on things like I'm sure there'll be some screen you can go to as Casey pointed out and all those

01:27:08   little bubbles on the screen one of them is gonna be settings and it's gonna tell you about your battery usage and you know do

01:27:12   all the which applications are using a lot of battery and bubble like I'm sure they'll bring over all that iOS 8 style stuff it

01:27:19   buried in some screen somewhere, but I

01:27:22   I think the idea of obsessively monitoring it, especially to the degree that you have an always

01:27:27   visible user interface element like the status bar on such a tiny screen, is just not going to

01:27:33   be ported to the watch. And kind of in the same way that a lot of the complexities and traditions

01:27:40   of desktop computers did not make it to iOS, now going from iOS to the watch is yet another

01:27:45   opportunity to shed some things that you know you're always supposed to have. And a battery

01:27:49   indicator is one of those things. Oh, you always have access to the file system. Well,

01:27:52   in iOS you don't. Deal with it. Oh, well you always see a battery indicator. Well,

01:27:55   on the watch you don't. Deal with it. All right. Thanks a lot to our three sponsors this week.

01:27:59   Squarespace, Igloo, and Lynda.com, and we will see you next week.

01:28:05   week.

01:28:12   Cause it was accidental, oh it was accidental John didn't do any research, Marco and Casey

01:28:22   wouldn't let him Cause it was accidental, oh it was accidental

01:28:29   And you can find the show notes at ATP.fm And if you're into Twitter, you can follow

01:28:38   them at C-A-S-E-Y-L-I-S-S, so that's Casey Liss M-A-R-C-O-A-R-M, E-N-T, Marco Arment,

01:28:50   S-I-R-A-C, USA, Syracuse. It's accidental. They didn't mean to. Accidental.

01:29:03   Tech podcast so long.

01:29:08   Of course, the other option is they just didn't have time to mock up where the battery indicator

01:29:11   is going to go when the release version will have one up in the corner. Because as we know from the

01:29:16   yet another developer release of Yosemite, sometimes Apple's just not entirely done with

01:29:21   the graphics for stuff and they have to change it in every freaking release. I took all my,

01:29:27   did I tell you I did all my screenshots? I thought it was done with screenshots except for if any

01:29:32   few little things changed and then they do no build and I'm like, "Oh, it looks the same,

01:29:36   I should be fine. And I start digging and it's not. And it's terrible.

01:29:40   So how is the review? I'm starting to now read what I wrote.

01:29:44   Oh, that's good. Yeah. So it doesn't mean I'm done. There are still things that I skipped over

01:29:48   and things that I couldn't get to work and things that they changed and, you know, new builds. But

01:29:53   I went back to the beginning and said, let me see what I wrote and I'm going back through it now.

01:29:57   So I still do not have anything publishable. And there are still things that I can't get to work

01:30:04   right. Something that should be pointed out is if you want to support us in ways

01:30:12   that don't involve our sponsors which the number one best way to

01:30:15   support us is to to try out our sponsors to check them out and see what they

01:30:20   have to do. But if you want to support us and by us I mean John, when the review

01:30:25   comes out it will presumably be available as an e-book go ahead and buy

01:30:28   that e-book. While you're there buy fast text. Oh god don't because I'm gonna just

01:30:34   feel even more guilty about the fact that it's not updated.

01:30:37   - I would love to see a FastTech sales spike

01:30:40   just come out of nowhere.

01:30:41   - That would be kind of funny, but no.

01:30:44   - Come on listeners, you can do it.

01:30:45   Everybody go out and buy FastTech this week.

01:30:47   - We didn't even, speaking of things that might be

01:30:49   on your iOS device that you never use and want to get rid of,

01:30:51   we didn't even talk about the YouTube thing.

01:30:53   - Oh, thanks.

01:30:55   - Well, it's saying like you can buy the ebook

01:30:56   as a form of support.

01:30:57   You don't have to ever read it.

01:30:58   You can buy it and just delete it.

01:30:59   (laughing)

01:31:02   But anyway, we didn't talk about the U2 thing.

01:31:05   I know Marco didn't post about that, and I just agree with everything he said, but it

01:31:08   would've been worth talking about probably.

01:31:09   Well, we just did.

01:31:11   Done.

01:31:12   Yeah.

01:31:13   Oh, except for now, one thing we didn't post about is you're supposed to do, "Oh, I tried

01:31:17   to give it a fair shot, but I stopped after the first song and a half."

01:31:20   That's not a fair shot.

01:31:21   You have to actually listen to the album.

01:31:23   I listened to the rest of it before the livestream tonight.

01:31:25   All right.

01:31:26   Well, that's what I'm saying.

01:31:27   Like, you said, "I think," did you say that you gave it a fair shot, or you tried to give

01:31:32   I don't remember you I said something like I wanted to give it a fair shot and I stopped after one and a half songs

01:31:36   Oh, yeah, so you wanted to but you did not well, hold on though

01:31:40   I mean, you know

01:31:40   I listen to albums if an album does if an album the head is like

01:31:44   Unbearably boring and doesn't grab me like fish after the first song and a half

01:31:48   So after 40 minutes of is it really gonna get better like well

01:31:52   No, like I said your favorite song in the entire world could have been the last song on that album

01:31:55   You would never know if you stopped you gotta listen to at least once

01:31:57   I mean some people would say you have to listen to it more than once to give it a fair shot

01:32:01   I'm just saying like limit bottom line each song you must listen to one time to know that you hate all of them

01:32:05   Which may be the case fine, but you can't say well, I hate it the first two

01:32:08   So I'm sure I hate the last six. I didn't say that

01:32:10   I know but you said you get true you wanted to give it a fair shot

01:32:13   But I don't think you did I think you have to listen to it

01:32:15   Oh, well

01:32:15   and so I did before the show and

01:32:17   The rest of the album sounds very similar to the first song and a half and I still don't like it

01:32:22   It's usually the case but like just right after that you have to listen to because you never know

01:32:28   There are many albums that I've listened to that I dislike all the tracks except for like one or one or two

01:32:34   And you'll never know that if those one or two are like mixed in the middle of the thing if you stop in the beginning

01:32:39   Well, and I would say also that you know to me like again, I listen to full albums only

01:32:44   I don't listen to singles. I listen to full albums

01:32:46   I listen to them in order and so it is important like the first song on an album matters and what most albums are made

01:32:54   Not to put like the biggest hit first, but but some kind of song first to like open it up

01:32:59   You know get the rhythm going, you know establish the tone for the rest of the album. It's that's old world thinking though

01:33:05   Well you two how old is you two?

01:33:07   I know what you're talking about

01:33:08   but like I think even you two has been gotten really bad at that for their last several albums of like

01:33:13   Building an album like the way the way everybody used to when they built an album now, it's like I don't think people care anymore

01:33:21   They don't care about play order. They don't care about building anything

01:33:24   They just want ten tracks and every single one of them needs to be a top ten hit like I don't know

01:33:29   You I don't listen to enough music to know who I think Radiohead is still building albums that way

01:33:33   But I don't listen to enough different bands to know if that is a thing that

01:33:36   that some bands still do like

01:33:40   think of it as a whole and

01:33:41   Arrange it as a whole and compose it as a whole rather than just taking a collection of tracks and maybe like

01:33:45   Reordering them once you've got the track set together. I think there is still some thought put into it

01:33:50   It's questionable whether there's enough people in the world who listen the way I do to that it's worth it

01:33:56   But there it there is definitely thought put in most of the time to that sort of thing even in fish albums

01:34:03   I don't even know fish to fish have albums. They just start playing they do

01:34:06   But they're pretty unimportant to actual fish fans actual fish fans. Usually just listen to the live shows

01:34:10   Did you like the u2 album John not really you actually like you too? Yeah, I do but the last few albums they

01:34:18   gone in a musical direction that is not as interesting to me and I

01:34:22   Since I'm a big YouTube fan, I'm pretty supposed to like a lot of what they do

01:34:27   I'm giving this album a longer shot than Marco to see if it grows on me or not because

01:34:33   It's not like it's not like outside the realm of possibility that some of my girl a lot of the you know for the past

01:34:39   Several albums has been at least one or two songs that have grown on me

01:34:42   Even though for the past several albums my initial listen to most of them has been like yeah

01:34:46   I mean, they're just they they did a

01:34:49   They kind of like a band this old has like

01:34:53   Backlash and then backlash backlash and then backlash back

01:34:57   but they're like nine levels deep in backlash in terms of

01:34:59   What fans think of them and what they think of their own sound and like they've circled back around so many times

01:35:05   They're just into this they've spiraled back into what they think of as the the u2 sound but it's not really the u2 sound anymore

01:35:10   and it's just a

01:35:13   Little bit boring to me musically speaking. So I'm I'm not that into it, but we agree

01:35:18   There are some glimmers of interest in in some of the the production on the album, but there's a lot of sameness. I

01:35:26   Completely agree on the last part of that sentence

01:35:29   Yeah, if you're not a YouTube fan

01:35:32   like maybe like it's kind of if you don't know

01:35:35   If you're not hearing glimpses of the old YouTube if you don't know the old YouTube didn't like the old YouTube having glimpses of them

01:35:42   show through is meaningless. And so all you're left with is like what you've got there.

01:35:46   Whereas some day Apple will be in decline and we'll see some glimmer of the old Apple

01:35:50   and you'll understand what I mean.

01:35:51   All right. So you want to do titles?

01:35:54   I think John won it already.

01:35:56   Entering the "I touch" phase in my life?

01:35:58   Yeah, that's it. I mean, how can we not pick that?

01:36:01   I completely agree.

01:36:02   All right, let's go through the capitalization now. Now go through the capitalization.

01:36:08   I was the one who did that and as I was typing it,

01:36:10   I knew that what I typed was wrong.

01:36:12   - I don't wanna know, I can't leave it to chance anymore.

01:36:14   So Marco, go ahead.

01:36:15   How are you going to capitalize this?

01:36:17   - Capital entering phase and, hmm.

01:36:22   I'm stuck on the my.

01:36:24   - The my gets a capital.

01:36:25   - Yes. - It does?

01:36:26   - Yes, I think so.

01:36:27   I mean, we need to just have a standard

01:36:29   and you can use titlecase.com if you want.

01:36:31   - All right, so the only lowercase words

01:36:32   are the and of in this title,

01:36:34   besides the itouch which is camelcase, but you know.

01:36:37   See, this looks stupid.

01:36:38   This is why I just, I capitalize everything

01:36:40   because it's just consistent.

01:36:43   It never looks this weird.

01:36:45   - No, it totally looks weird when you capitalize of.

01:36:49   Are you crazy?

01:36:50   That just looks, yeah.

01:36:52   - And we didn't talk about anything that came out today.

01:36:54   - Nope.

01:36:55   - Yeah, the Tim Cook privacy thing,

01:36:56   whichever was posting in the chat room a million times.

01:36:58   - Well, that just came out during the show.

01:37:00   I haven't had time to read it yet.

01:37:01   - Slightly before, but yeah, I read it.

01:37:03   We didn't talk about the Charlie Rose interview,

01:37:05   which I made sure I watched all of before the show

01:37:07   'cause we might talk about it, but we didn't.

01:37:09   - Yeah, we're gonna have months of stuff

01:37:11   to talk about that happened this week.

01:37:13   - Oh, someone put the Charlie Rose thing in the notes

01:37:14   so we don't, so we remember it.

01:37:16   Charlie Rose and the privacy thing,

01:37:17   just throw them in there for topics for next week.

01:37:20   - Yeah, so I guess that's it.

01:37:22   I could talk about the iPad thing,

01:37:23   but we're almost two hours already, I'm exhausted.

01:37:25   Let's go to bed.

01:37:26   - What iPad thing?

01:37:28   - I accidentally released an iPad app today.

01:37:30   - Oh, that iPad thing, yeah.

01:37:31   - There's not much to say.

01:37:33   I accidentally released an iPad app.

01:37:35   It doesn't look that bad, but it looks pretty bad.

01:37:37   - The storyboard thing, are you essentially

01:37:40   like wiring up a UI with constraints as a storyboard

01:37:44   so that the interface elements in the default,

01:37:47   like what would be equivalent to the default ping,

01:37:49   like is it all basically just a fake like facade,

01:37:52   but it's a facade that's resizable?

01:37:53   Is that how the storyboards work?

01:37:54   - Yeah, so I don't actually use storyboards

01:37:56   anywhere else in the app.

01:37:58   But what you can do is you can set a storyboard

01:38:03   a storyboard or a zib file instead of your launch image.

01:38:07   You can set it as your launch image on iOS 8.

01:38:09   And it's fairly undocumented and pretty poorly understood

01:38:14   and pretty poorly supported.

01:38:15   The simulator doesn't even support it yet.

01:38:17   There's this post by, is it Olay Olbergeman?

01:38:22   I'm sorry, I forgot exactly his name,

01:38:24   but I'm going to in the show notes.

01:38:27   In theory, it's great because so the way,

01:38:30   When iOS, in case listeners don't know,

01:38:33   iOS apps always had these files called default.png.

01:38:37   They're called the launch images.

01:38:39   And when you first launch the app,

01:38:42   if it wasn't running in the background,

01:38:43   when you first launch the app, it shows this image first.

01:38:47   Then it takes like a second or two for the app

01:38:49   to actually load in the background,

01:38:51   and then the app pops in in place of the image.

01:38:53   And so the way that Apple's old apps used to do it,

01:38:56   and the way that kind of became the standard,

01:38:58   is that you would have the image basically showing

01:39:02   an empty version of your UI.

01:39:04   So like an empty table with blank toolbars

01:39:06   or something like that.

01:39:07   And so then you would show it,

01:39:09   it would show the empty table with blank toolbars

01:39:11   and then as soon as your app was actually loaded,

01:39:12   it would pop in right into those placeholders.

01:39:16   So your table would pop content in,

01:39:18   your navigation bars would pop titles in and stuff.

01:39:21   The problem with this is that because it's just

01:39:23   a static image, you had to make one for every orientation,

01:39:26   once the iPad came out and once you could launch

01:39:28   in non-portrait orientation.

01:39:29   So you had to make one for every orientation.

01:39:31   You had to make one for every screen density,

01:39:33   and you had to make one for every device.

01:39:35   So once new screen sizes came out,

01:39:38   you had to make a different one for that.

01:39:40   You had to talk about 2x, 3x, 1x versions of all of them.

01:39:44   And it just became a big pain.

01:39:45   And then once the system or your app

01:39:48   changes its style of navigation bars or whatever,

01:39:51   you had to remake all the images to match the new style.

01:39:54   It's an interesting system to make loads look like they're faster.

01:39:59   And it's important that you have a useful launch image, but the old system of making them was clunky.

01:40:05   So anyway, iOS 8 has this thing where you can replace it with a storyboard or a zib file so that

01:40:10   you can replace it with a dummy UI that has no code behind it,

01:40:15   no logic behind it, but like a dummy UI file instead of a static image.

01:40:20   So I did that.

01:40:21   I, for Overcast 104, the iOS 8 update

01:40:25   that was released today, I replaced it with that

01:40:27   and I deleted all my launch images, which is great

01:40:29   because then I don't have to worry about

01:40:31   what size device you're running it on at all

01:40:33   or what orientation you're launching it on.

01:40:34   - And it's just one storyboard, right?

01:40:36   - Yeah. - One storyboard

01:40:37   with a bunch of auto layout constraints

01:40:39   and a bunch of fake controls not wired to anything.

01:40:41   - In fact, mine is even easier.

01:40:42   Mine is literally like just the navigation controller

01:40:46   because all I'm showing is a title bar,

01:40:50   an empty table view in the middle,

01:40:51   and a toolbar at the bottom, that's it.

01:40:53   And so, and it's like the simplest interface document ever.

01:40:57   Anyway, the problem is, there's a bug,

01:40:59   and I've had a couple other people confirm it,

01:41:01   that their apps did this too.

01:41:03   There's a bug that if you run this on an iPad,

01:41:07   for an app that is otherwise marked iPhone only

01:41:10   in the info.plist file,

01:41:11   it runs it at the iPad's full size,

01:41:15   instead of running it in a little iPhone simulator

01:41:18   on the iPad.

01:41:19   so that even if your app is marked iPhone only,

01:41:23   it basically makes you have an iPad version of your app.

01:41:26   Unexpectedly.

01:41:27   If you didn't try to just drag over the IPA file

01:41:30   onto an iPad during development, which I didn't.

01:41:32   So that happened and it turns out

01:41:33   I've accidentally launched an iPad version

01:41:35   because of this bug.

01:41:36   The question of course is like what to do about it.

01:41:39   So it works.

01:41:41   It actually like, because of auto layout,

01:41:43   because I had adjusted some of the constraints

01:41:45   and I made the interface work for the iPhone 6 Plus.

01:41:49   So I already made the interface big screen friendly.

01:41:53   So it just doesn't look broken.

01:41:55   It's not good, it isn't optimized for it.

01:41:58   A lot of people said it's like the way

01:41:59   Android tablet apps were when Android tablets first came out

01:42:02   where they were just blowing up phone apps.

01:42:03   It's basically just like that.

01:42:05   Where it is literally just a blown up version

01:42:08   of the phone UI.

01:42:10   All the table views are giant

01:42:12   and the cells are all wide and skinny.

01:42:14   It looks ridiculous.

01:42:16   So the question is what to do about it.

01:42:18   And it's actually an interesting question.

01:42:21   So I did plan to have an iPad version,

01:42:23   but I also planned to do it right,

01:42:25   to actually like custom make an iPad interface.

01:42:28   And there are people who have been using it

01:42:30   on the iPad before who just ran it

01:42:33   in a little windowed iPhone mode,

01:42:34   and you know, where he blows it up to the iPad screen.

01:42:37   And that sucks.

01:42:38   And no question, like if you're on an iPad, that sucks.

01:42:41   So I think overall, having a blown up iPhone interface

01:42:44   actually sucks less than running it

01:42:48   in the iPhone windowed mode.

01:42:50   So I think I've made an accidental improvement

01:42:53   with an accidental iPad app.

01:42:55   But I don't intend to actually leave it that way.

01:42:57   So what I think I'm going to do instead is,

01:43:02   I'm not gonna pull this version off the store or anything.

01:43:05   I'm also not gonna revert it back to iPhone only

01:43:07   in the next update because that will anger anybody

01:43:09   who got used to it now.

01:43:12   So I think what I'm gonna do is,

01:43:14   as soon as I reasonably can,

01:43:15   which is probably the next update,

01:43:17   actually try to make a slightly better adaptation

01:43:21   of the interface for the iPad.

01:43:23   Probably a basic split view kind of layout,

01:43:26   a very stock basic UI kit version of what I have now,

01:43:30   but just some kind of tweaks to do that.

01:43:34   So that's what I'm gonna do.

01:43:35   And I still need to support rotation, that's a big one.

01:43:38   I have to support landscape orientation.

01:43:40   On the iPad, that'll be easy.

01:43:41   On iPhones, it won't be,

01:43:43   and so I have to deal with that.

01:43:45   So this is what I'm gonna do basically,

01:43:47   but it's unfortunate that I accidentally launched

01:43:51   an iPad version.

01:43:52   On the other hand, it actually is kind of freeing,

01:43:55   like I retweeted somebody saying this earlier,

01:43:56   it's kind of freeing because like the pressure,

01:43:59   I don't feel any pressure now to like make sure

01:44:01   my iPad version is perfect.

01:44:02   - Well you should hurry up though,

01:44:04   because Apple's gonna fix that bug

01:44:06   and then your iPad version is gonna go away

01:44:08   and people are gonna complain.

01:44:09   - You think there's any chance they're gonna fix that bug?

01:44:11   I don't think so.

01:44:12   - Yeah, I mean it is, it seems like a pretty clear bug.

01:44:14   Like it's just misreading the, you know,

01:44:17   is this, should we run this on an iPad?

01:44:20   Well I'll just look at the default images.

01:44:21   Oh, it's got a scalable one, that must mean it's ready.

01:44:23   You know, like that seems like a pretty easy bug to fix

01:44:26   and they'll probably get around to it in 601, I assume.

01:44:30   And then your app will go back to being scaled.

01:44:32   - 801 you mean, but yeah.

01:44:33   - Or 801, yeah, sorry.

01:44:34   - Yeah, yeah, I touched it, sorry.

01:44:36   (laughing)

01:44:38   You're probably right.

01:44:39   So yeah, I mean, I intend to do this

01:44:40   like within the next couple of weeks.

01:44:41   Like that's what I'm now working on.

01:44:43   I'm not like, once I finish editing and publishing

01:44:46   this episode of our show,

01:44:47   I'm going to go back to working on

01:44:49   making my accidental iPad interface

01:44:51   a little bit more intentional.

01:44:53   - I hope we don't have to wait weeks for 8.01

01:44:55   because 8 is not getting along with my iPod touch.

01:44:59   Every once in a while, Twitter, I think,

01:45:01   just stops being able to launch

01:45:02   and then I have to restart my phone.

01:45:05   - Maybe you should get an iPhone.

01:45:06   - Maybe I will.

01:45:07   Maybe I'll go to the store and check them out sometime,

01:45:09   see what it's like.

01:45:11   I will absolutely crap my pants if you suddenly say on the show one day, not only did I buy

01:45:16   an iPhone, but I bought a 6 Plus in gold.

01:45:20   I'm not going to buy a 6 Plus.

01:45:22   Go look at the 6, you know exactly which one I'm going to get if I get it.

01:45:26   I assume I'm going to, unless it's like seeing it in person, I'm just overwhelmed by something

01:45:31   weird about it.

01:45:32   But anyway, it'll happen, especially if they're not going to make new iPod touches.

01:45:36   So I'm probably gonna wait until after whatever event in October they're gonna have

01:45:40   No, man, can't have all the options on the table before I choose. There's no it's not a race

01:45:45   I don't want to get the first ones off the assembly line anyway

01:45:48   [BLANK_AUDIO]