1: iPhone Plus


00:00:00   you know something you put about like a a5x and the Apple TV thing however many

00:00:06   I'm an idiot for that it's going into the retina iPad mini of course the a5x

00:00:11   yeah I was saying it's a die shrink that's going into the retina iPad mini

00:00:14   of course no it wasn't Anna saying the a5 he thought the a5x was going to the

00:00:18   shrunken Apple TV yeah well he said that and he said he believes it'll be a die

00:00:22   shrink which makes sense because the full size one would be too much heat for

00:00:25   that probably. And of course, if you're going to have a die-shrunk A5X, that's going to

00:00:30   be a really inexpensive way to retina-ify the Mini while still maintaining good separation

00:00:37   for people to buy the high-priced one with the faster chip and keep those margins a little

00:00:42   bit healthier on the Mini.

00:00:43   Steven: The reason I totally believe it for the Apple TV is because you said it yourself,

00:00:47   they're going to put the ones there with two of the GPU cores burned out. Because you've

00:00:52   got four GPU cores in there, and it's like, all right, we're going to have a lot of parts

00:00:55   where one of those four GPU cores is no good, right to the Apple TV, because it does not

00:00:59   need more. Maybe they'll intentionally burn out two. Even if one fails, they will intentionally

00:01:03   short out two of them.

00:01:04   Right, because the CPU in the current one is an A5 with one core burned out.

00:01:08   Right, and crappy GPU. So if you put an A5X in there, it's like, now we've got four cores.

00:01:13   If any one of them is bad, we're going to intentionally burn out two of them just to

00:01:16   save power, and you know what I mean? Because it's 1080p. It's the max resolution. You do

00:01:21   not need four cores for that, right? So, I'm just, I'm upset that it's an A5X in all likelihood.

00:01:28   I'm upset because the A5X is a shitty CPU for iPad programming because it, you know,

00:01:34   it's four times the graphics power, but the same CPU power. And so, CPU-bound graphics

00:01:41   operations become four times slower than an iPad 2, and that's really, really terrible.

00:01:48   I don't know, like, for the Apple TV, I totally believe that it's gonna be A5Xs with stuff

00:01:53   shorted out.

00:01:54   Oh yeah, because the Apple TV doesn't matter.

00:01:55   But if they then put that...

00:01:56   But for the Retina Mini, the Retina Mini, I still think that's gonna be an A6.

00:01:59   Yeah, I hope so.

00:02:01   But if that's the case, then why, besides, I guess, having a bunch of extra, you know,

00:02:05   binned out A5Xs, but then why would they put the A5X in the Apple TV?

00:02:10   I think that's what it is.

00:02:11   I think it's like, they made the iPad 3 for a long time, right?

00:02:16   Not really, like seven months.

00:02:17   I know, but they sold a lot of them. It's not like how many Apple TVs they sell in those

00:02:22   seven months versus how many iPad 3s they sell. The mini wasn't even around. The iPad

00:02:26   3, I guess they had the iPad 2 still around.

00:02:27   I guess. Maybe because it's such a large die, they had a whole bunch of failures.

00:02:29   I think it's because that chip is such a big monster that they had to have a lot of rejects

00:02:34   and they're looking for something to do with those rejects because otherwise what are you

00:02:37   going to do? You throw them away, right?

00:02:39   Yeah, I guess that's true.

00:02:40   It's basically like FreeMun. What do you do? You put it in your crappy low-selling little

00:02:45   TV thing. You've got them laying around, they're probably telling them, "Don't throw those

00:02:49   out. Just keep them on the side." "Well, think of something for those." "Well, here you go,

00:02:52   Apple TV." That's if you believe that in terms of it. It seems like I looked at his investigative

00:02:57   work and I buy it.

00:03:00   I don't think he would post something that confidently without having good stuff to back

00:03:04   it up. I believe it, too. That's why I figure the only two options, the only two explanations

00:03:09   are using up old bin chips or upcoming Retina iPad Mini using that particular die shrink

00:03:17   of that particular chip, but I really don't want that to be true. So I just hate that

00:03:21   chip so much.

00:03:24   It depends on how desperate they are. I think they are for Retina Mini. I always assumed

00:03:27   a Retina Mini would not arrive for like a year.

00:03:29   Yeah, I was thinking like next Thanksgiving season, you know, next fall.

00:03:33   Right, exactly.

00:03:34   But this could be for them.

00:03:35   Apple's doing some crazy things these days. What the hell with the 128 gigabyte thing?

00:03:38   That was a weird, like why now?

00:03:41   - I've seen it, there's lots of theories.

00:03:43   I like, my favorite one was,

00:03:45   they just got off this, their earnings thing

00:03:49   where people yell to them about their margins.

00:03:50   You're like, fine, you want our stupid margins to go up here.

00:03:52   We'll just throw in an even higher margin on my pay

00:03:55   'cause the margins of that thing has just gotta be monstrous.

00:03:57   - But no one's gonna buy it.

00:03:58   - I know, but it's like, well, they'll say,

00:04:00   look, we can do this, we can make this thing.

00:04:02   If we make this thing, we're gonna sell

00:04:04   a non-zero number of them

00:04:05   and the margins are gonna be awesome.

00:04:07   and they probably have some demand from some people who want it, so like, you know what, fine.

00:04:11   Slap in 28 gigs, sell it for a ridiculous price.

00:04:15   Like, what chance will that--because pretty soon they're gonna have to do the line shift,

00:04:18   where they do like, okay, 16s are gone, it's 32, 64, 128, all for the same price points, you know.

00:04:24   Like, that's gonna happen eventually.

00:04:26   This is their one chance to sell 128 gigs with a ridiculous markup,

00:04:31   and it's, you know, it doesn't bring the margins down, right?

00:04:35   The Mini is dragging their iPad margins down.

00:04:37   Like how can we pull the iPad margins back up while you put a higher-end model in there?

00:04:41   Well, it's like it's off cycle. It's weird

00:04:44   What if what if this actually it like, you know

00:04:47   The same way the iPad 4 came out only like seven months after the three

00:04:50   what if they really are moving to a more more like twice a year update schedule because the iPhone and iPad are their most important products and

00:04:56   And they often get dinged in comparisons and the press and reviews and everything because they're old because they they're there

00:05:04   shipping an 11 month old model against somebody's brand new thing with a brand new core and

00:05:09   a brand new radio and stuff like that.

00:05:11   What if they do move too?

00:05:13   They always have to balance that.

00:05:15   They're always getting dings in comparison to whatever the hell the latest Android phone

00:05:19   is, but any individual Android phone, the makers want to be on the market for some period

00:05:24   of time because you just don't get the economies of scale unless you sell it for a couple of

00:05:27   months at least.

00:05:28   Right.

00:05:29   So it's got to strike a balance between not being...

00:05:32   They're just one maker.

00:05:33   never going to be, except for like when they first introduce a phone, then they can be

00:05:37   a little bit ahead of everybody else, but everyone else will catch up immediately. They

00:05:39   just have to be okay with three months, six months of just being a little bit behind,

00:05:43   because during that time they're like cranking on, you know. So I totally buy trying to go

00:05:49   to an eight month or a six month cycle or a twice a year cycle, especially if they stick

00:05:52   with the like 4S, 4S, 5S cadence where you just, you know, upgrade the guts. And also

00:05:58   especially since like we went you know Edge 3G LTE in a pretty quick

00:06:06   sequence relatively speaking there's nothing surpassing LTE except for maybe

00:06:09   you know 802.11ac that's gonna have to be have to go in there and screw with

00:06:13   the radio so they'll be able to iterate on the other parts with like right you

00:06:16   know let's relax for a little bit we have like a world phone that does LTE

00:06:20   and all these other things one or two more revs of that and you know it's not

00:06:24   a total upheaval where we go from 3G to LTE and have to support all, you know what I mean?

00:06:28   Right. And like the retina screen is done, they're probably not going to go with a more

00:06:31   dense screen. Quad retina.

00:06:32   Right. That doesn't make sense. They could go bigger, maybe, you know, and that's honestly,

00:06:38   I think they have to go bigger just to keep competitive in the market. Like, I think,

00:06:42   I don't think they have to make their only model bigger, but I think they have to have a bigger

00:06:46   model because even though we all make fun of these phablet things, they're really popular. Like,

00:06:50   yeah, people love them. I don't get it. It doesn't need to be a phablet. It just

00:06:53   needs to be like right now it's galaxy next to the same. Right now it's like a skinny four inches. I think they need to have

00:06:58   like a more reasonably like a you know a 3x2 proportioned four and a half.

00:07:06   It's like the iBook G4 that was 800 by 600. Old people loved it. They loved it.

00:07:10   Everything was so big you could actually see things. You could use your big fat

00:07:13   old person finger to like they just got to make a 4.5 inch or you know iPhone

00:07:18   same res. You know just blow it up. The screen will be I bet the screen would

00:07:22   probably be cheaper because like the density will be lower so even though the

00:07:25   screen is bigger probably cost Apple less money to make you could put an even

00:07:28   bigger battery in there so that thing like lasts forever I mean you'll get all

00:07:31   these awesome advantages. Well you know what actually so so on you know how the

00:07:35   the LCD cutting theory kind of predicted the mini what if you do the math

00:07:39   backwards what if you cut the the retina full-sized iPad screen to retina iPhone

00:07:46   resolution, how big is that?

00:07:50   That's a huge question. If you would, say that again.

00:07:53   So the way we predicted the Mini was by saying, alright, if you just take the 3GS screen and make it the same

00:07:58   iPad resolution, do it backwards from the full-sized Retina iPad,

00:08:02   from that physical size, or from that DPI rather, how big

00:08:06   would an iPhone 5 resolution screen be at that DPI?

00:08:10   I don't think you need to do that. I think you just need to decide how much bigger than

00:08:14   do you want it and just make the screen that big?

00:08:16   Like I don't, you know, the screen cutting theory,

00:08:18   the thing about the screen cutting theory is even if you

00:08:20   100% buy that that's how the technology of manufacturing

00:08:23   LCDs work, I think Apple changes their screen supplier

00:08:26   like every single device because they're always chasing

00:08:28   the next guy with the next best deal who's gonna offer them

00:08:31   the better screen for less money.

00:08:33   Like, you know, the LG, Sharp, Samsung.

00:08:35   - But they also always have volume problems.

00:08:38   They always are like short-circuited on screens.

00:08:41   Like they always need more screens.

00:08:42   Well, that's why they go with dual. They have multiple suppliers.

00:08:46   But once you have multiple suppliers...

00:08:48   But if you standardize on a couple of sizes, and if that cutting theory is correct,

00:08:53   then you can dramatically increase your yields and simplify everything by only having two DPI's that you buy screens at.

00:08:59   But only if you're sticking with someone...

00:09:01   Only if the guy who is making you your Retina iPad screens is also the same guy you're going to get to make your iPhone Plus-size screens.

00:09:09   And I think when the iPhone Plus goes out,

00:09:11   they just rebid the entire thing.

00:09:12   And they give no particular waiter advantage

00:09:16   to the guy who was making the screens of the same DPI

00:09:18   for some device, especially as far distance as the iPad 3.

00:09:21   Like they just rebid every time, two best manufacturers,

00:09:26   especially with the IGZO stuff,

00:09:27   I forget what the hell that stands for.

00:09:28   - Yeah, the in-cell and blah, blah, blah.

00:09:30   - Yeah, whoever's offering that,

00:09:33   if that guy who was doing the iPad 3 screens,

00:09:34   whether it's Sharp or whatever, or Samsung,

00:09:37   if they can't offer the IGZO thing, but that guy can't,

00:09:39   I think they just rebid all the time and just set the suppliers against each other like

00:09:42   dogs and just wait to see who comes out, you know, surviving.

00:09:45   Like, that's the TSMC thing or TM whatever, like, get it back.

00:09:50   Yeah, TSMC.

00:09:51   Taiwan Semiconductor.

00:09:52   Yeah.

00:09:53   Those guys like...

00:09:54   There was an magazine article about them.

00:09:55   Yeah, I know.

00:09:56   I read.

00:09:57   Like, they're obviously so incredibly hungry, but just, I mean, you follow video card manufacturing

00:10:00   in the ATI NVIDIA wars back in those days.

00:10:03   They both manufactured it at TSMC and it was sometimes good and sometimes disastrous.

00:10:09   So I don't doubt that they're hungry.

00:10:11   I do worry that they're going to make a deal that Apple will accept because it's an awesome

00:10:17   deal and then just not be able to deliver and we're all going to be sad.

00:10:21   So I have two questions.

00:10:23   Firstly, if you take a iPhone Plus that is not retina by standard iPhone standards because

00:10:30   if and it's late and I'm tired but the DPI of the Retina iPad is considerably less than

00:10:35   the DPI of the iPhone Retina.

00:10:37   Considerably, isn't it?

00:10:38   Like, what is it, Margaret?

00:10:39   Well, okay.

00:10:40   Like, one is 264 and the other one is like...

00:10:42   It's like 312 versus 264, something like that.

00:10:45   Yes.

00:10:46   Well, that's somewhat considerable.

00:10:47   So anyway, so if they make an iPhone Plus with the 264 DPI, don't you think they'll

00:10:51   get raked over the coals?

00:10:52   Be like, "Oh, well, this isn't really...

00:10:53   No, it'll still be fine.

00:10:54   It'll still be the old people phone.

00:10:55   Old people can't see those pixels.

00:10:59   My parents could not see the difference between an iPad 2 and 3.

00:11:02   When I showed them right in the store in front of them, I said, "These are the two things."

00:11:05   I made them get a 3 anyway, but they literally could not tell the difference.

00:11:10   I intentionally brought up some text and I held it an inch from their face and said,

00:11:13   "See how you can see the picture?"

00:11:14   Like, "Oh yeah, I can kind of see it."

00:11:16   It's like, "Just get the 3."

00:11:17   But anyway, like, old people phone, I'm telling you.

00:11:21   Things are bigger on the screen.

00:11:22   They need it to be bigger.

00:11:23   They need it to be bigger so they don't drop it.

00:11:25   So it's like just bigger and heavier and bigger pictures and bigger place for their fat fingers

00:11:29   touch. They love it. Bigger picture for the grandkids.

00:11:32   The other question was going to be, well, does Apple really give a shit either way?

00:11:35   You know, if they do get raked over the coals, do they really care?

00:11:37   No, as long as they sell them. They won't. People will not complain.

00:11:40   Like, it will not be, you know, it's like, well, it's not real red. It's fine.

00:11:43   Like, you know, look at all the other phones that are 8 bazillion different resolutions.

00:11:46   It's basically like, can you see the pixels or can you not see them?

00:11:48   And 264 is definitely still in the not-see realm.

00:11:52   Oh, yeah. And especially, like, if the phone itself is bigger, you're not going to hold it as close to your face.

00:11:58   Yeah, that's what the old people don't like. They don't like to have the thing, you know.

00:12:02   They want to hold it away, like the old people holding the books away so they can read it,

00:12:05   because otherwise they don't have their reading glasses. They need to get it farther away,

00:12:08   but you get an iPhone 5 at arm's length and suddenly you can't read the tiny texture.

00:12:11   Honestly, I might consider getting one of the bigger ones if that was the option. Like

00:12:15   if it was otherwise just as good, just a little bit bigger.

00:12:17   I managed to go this whole Skype session without making a short joke, even when you talked

00:12:21   about how they were trying to give you a mini, and now you're telling me you want to get

00:12:24   the five inch iPhone. No Marco, you have to get the small one. It's the correct size for

00:12:28   you. It's properly proportioned. It's arm and size. It's size for your family. Is your

00:12:33   family all small or is it just you? Yeah, they're all small. So that's what I'm saying.

00:12:37   You're the Hobbit derived people. You've got to stick with it. You cannot get, you're forbidden

00:12:40   from getting the giant iPhone. It's too big for you. I just want something extremely nerdy.

00:12:46   I have, I just made in Photoshop a quick image mockup, putting the right size rectangle,

00:12:53   to myself putting onto my iPad it is about 4.8 inches diagonally. Yeah. I mean

00:13:02   that may be a little big I would say 4.65 is as big as I can see them

00:13:07   going for the iPad Plus because I don't know you're holding it in front of you. It's not that bad.

00:13:11   If you printed it out can you have you have you held like I didn't print that I

00:13:14   emailed that I emailed the image to my iPad so I could look at it on the screen at 1x.

00:13:19   Honestly, it isn't that much bigger. Like, it's not...

00:13:22   Have you held the Lumia 920? Like, the big monster Windows phones?

00:13:27   No. Only that very first one that was not a monster. The 700?

00:13:32   I have held the big monster phones, and there's something to be said for like... It's got

00:13:36   like heft. It feels like you could fend off a mugger with this thing. Like, it's big.

00:13:41   It's a little bit heavier, but it just fills your hand more than the other thing does,

00:13:47   And I think some people just like that.

00:13:49   I wouldn't like it because I can't imagine trying to stick that in a pocket.

00:13:53   I like the small, thin form factor, but I think some people like the bigger ones, and

00:13:57   it definitely gives a different feel.

00:14:00   So you have it there on your screen.

00:14:02   Cut out a piece of paper.

00:14:04   Make your own little papercraft iPhone Plus, and then make a blog post with you holding

00:14:07   it, and there you go.

00:14:09   But again, he can't be the one holding it because he's hobbit-sized.

00:14:11   Yeah, well, your wife's not normal-sized, is she?

00:14:15   She's also small, right?

00:14:16   She's actually taller than me.

00:14:17   She's like an inch and a half taller than me.

00:14:19   Is she?

00:14:20   Adam is.

00:14:21   But give it to Adam.

00:14:22   Because it'll be adorable.

00:14:23   I love the fan movie of him watching the fan in the store.

00:14:27   Oh yeah.

00:14:28   So you use Vine apparently.

00:14:30   I do not use Vine, but I click on the links when your wife posts a picture of a baby looking

00:14:34   at a fan.