562: Do You Have a Dragon?
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If you wanna really screw anything up big time,
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really, if you want to just really make some of the biggest
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public mistakes of your life, now is the time to do it,
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because at least we're not the OpenAI board.
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(Geoffrey laughs)
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- You're jumping ahead, my friend.
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Jumping ahead. - What a mess.
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Wow, I mean, you talk about people having bad weeks.
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Like, sometimes, oh yeah, they're having a bad week.
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Boy are they having a bad week.
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- At least it's relatively low stakes, I feel like.
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(Geoffrey laughs)
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It's fun because it's only like, whatever,
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80 billion dollars on the line, but it's, you know,
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in the end, it's people with computers and stuff and things,
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and it's not like life or death,
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and most of the people involved,
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you feel okay laughing at them a little bit
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because they're such big, distant figures,
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they don't seem like real people to you.
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But rest assured, they are,
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and that's probably why they're in this mess.
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(electronic beeping)
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- Final warning.
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This is the moment where you, a dear, beloved listener,
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who has not yet put in your order,
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you sit or stand there and you think,
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I've got this, no worries.
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I'm gonna take care of that as soon as I get to the office,
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or I'll take care of it as soon as I get home.
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And then, you, dear, beloved listener, you forget.
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And then what happens?
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Then the rules state, you have to go tweeting,
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even though I won't see it, or tweeting at me,
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saying, I'm the one, I'm that person this time.
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Don't be that person, don't do that to yourself.
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Go to ATP.fm/store.
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This is your final warning, this is all we got, this is it.
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The sale ends this weekend, Sunday, November 26th.
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That's it, that's all the time you get.
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So, go now, don't hesitate, pull over the car,
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use a signal, because you're an adult and courteous,
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use a signal.
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If you're walking, do what you need to do
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to indicate to those behind you,
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you will be pulling to the side of the sidewalk.
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If you're biking, God help you,
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but do what you gotta do as a bikist, as Marco would say,
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to get to the side of the road
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and not get run over by a car.
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- That makes people so mad, by the way.
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- I know, I know it does.
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- They don't get that it's a joke, it makes them so mad.
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- I know, we know that bikist is not a thing.
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Anyways, all kidding aside, go to ATP.fm/store,
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check out our merch, check out our wares,
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and remember, if you are a member,
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you get 15% off the ATP store
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during this time-limited sale
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and all other time-limited sales, now is the time.
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I know we kinda glossed over it last week,
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but Jon, would you mind just doing
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a brief overview of everything,
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just one last time to really sell it,
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just nail it and send it home.
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Let's get a few more sales, Jon, what do we have on offer?
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- We're not gonna go through all the merch again,
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they know what's there, people know.
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- All right, I'll go through all the merch,
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why you gotta be such a party pooper?
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All right, I'll do a speed run.
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We got ATP Pixels, we've got ATP Space Black,
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we've got the M3 shirt, the M3 Pro shirt, the M3 Max shirt,
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we've got ATP Six Colors, which is six colors of fabric,
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actually more than six colors of fabric,
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but the text is always white,
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really should've workshop that name, but here we are.
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ATP Logo shirt, the OG, we've got the ATP hoodie,
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ATP Polo, don't let me down, Polo ponies, Polo people,
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don't let me down, this is my jam,
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get an ATP Polo, please and thank you.
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We've also got the ATP mug in now white
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and a bluey purpley sort of thing,
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Jon will correct the actual--
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- It's cobalt, please, Casey, cobalt.
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- Of course, I said that, it's definitely cobalt,
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definitely not a bluey purpley thing.
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- It's recycled cobalt, don't worry.
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- Sure, and the ATP pint glass,
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so go now, ATP.fm/store, and remember, if you're a member,
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go to your member page, landing, strip,
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whatever you call it thing,
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and go get your bespoke discount code for 15% off,
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ATP.fm/store, this is it, people,
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the 26th, that's all you got.
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- Yeah, the only thing I'll add is,
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remember that a lot of the products come in
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long sleeve T-shirt versions and sweatshirt versions.
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I think this is kind of the first time we've done those
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in a lot of these products, so check,
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even though a lot of times it will show a picture
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of a T-shirt, if you watch long enough,
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the picture will rotate and you'll see
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some long sleeve varieties, and it's the cold winter months
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in our parts anyway, so think about those long sleeve
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options if you're interested, and this sale does span
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Black Friday, we did this intentionally,
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so it ends on the 26th, Black Friday is a couple days
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before that, you're gonna be thinking about shopping
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for the holidays, probably, or you'll be bombarded
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by messages about shopping for the holidays,
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don't forget, this is your last chance,
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I know we did this sale kind of early,
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but we're trying as best we can to have a chance
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of getting these things to you in time for the holidays,
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so, you know, nerdy gifts for yourself or for others,
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don't forget, when Black Friday arrives,
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that's another reminder for you to hear Casey's voice
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in your head, just saying, oh wait, was I supposed
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to buy some nerd thing?
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Yes, ATP.fm/store.
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- Indeed, there's also Ute sizes as well,
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which we added a little bit late, apologies about that,
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so you can check out for your kids, you can get them stuff
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for friends, kids, you know, whatever you wanna do,
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ATP.fm/store, I'm telling you, this is good stuff,
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that you should definitely check it out,
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and time's running out, my friends, time is running out.
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I feel like I had something else that I wanted to add,
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but I forgot what it was, so, that's all right.
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We'll just make me feel, we'll make me sound smart in post,
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right Marco, right, right, right, okay, good.
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- Garbage in, garbage out.
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- Oh, brutal, brutal, well played, but very mean.
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Keyboardware, let's talk about,
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God, you really derailed me with that.
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Keyboardware, let's talk about what happens to keyboards
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because of your damn dirty fingers.
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Ryan Holmes writes, Casey, I think what you're seeing
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as finger grease is likely what keyboard enthusiasts
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call quote unquote shine that happens to ABS plastic.
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It's relatively soft plastic that is susceptible
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to finger oils and heat.
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To John's point, some people's finger oils shine them
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more than others.
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When you use a magic eraser to remove the shine,
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you are literally abrading off a layer of plastic.
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Okay, so, interrupting briefly, I don't debate
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that that's very possibly true, but I'm not like sawing
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the keyboard with a magic eraser, like,
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just a quick glance with it is more than enough,
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and I only do this a handful of times a year, like I think--
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- But that is true, though, like that is how the abrasive
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in a magic eraser works, you are taking a layer off.
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It's just a very small layer
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'cause it's a very fine abrasive.
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- But you're also leaving bits of the magic eraser
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on your keyboard and going down into the,
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I'm still against the magic eraser.
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- Yeah, it's not a great option to have to use.
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Ideally, you don't need it.
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'Cause you're right, there is some risk of getting
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little dots of it stuck in there and jamming up the keys.
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Obviously, now that we have a little more robust keyboards
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than we used to, that risk is lower, but it is still a risk.
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So yeah, you are better off not doing that
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if you can help it.
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- That's fair.
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Continuing back to what Ryan Holmes was writing,
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ABS is nice for keycaps because they are easy to double shot,
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meaning the letters can be embedded into the key
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and won't wear off.
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It's a separate layer of plastic molded inside.
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This also enables any color combo.
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A more durable option is PBT, polybutylene terra--
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Oh my gosh, that's all it costs, that's all it wants.
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Terra-fith-al-ate, which takes much higher temperatures
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to deform, it does not quote unquote shine.
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It often has a deeper sound and can be double shot,
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but double shotting it is not common
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and can involve a blend with ABS.
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The more common way to print legends on PBT
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is dye sublimation, which involves heat and dye.
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The dye embeds into the top layer of the key
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so the legends will essentially never wear off.
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There is so much lingo here, my word.
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I know every interest and profession
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has their own vocabulary, but my gosh.
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Anyways, it's difficult to get them as crisp
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as double shot, however, and they will not
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let LEDs glow through.
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PBT is also difficult for light legends on dark caps
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since the whole cap will need to be dyed
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except the legend, which is masked out.
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This amount of dyeing involves longer exposure
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of the plastic to heat and often deforms larger keys,
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most notably space bars.
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Cheaper OEM keyboards use other kinds of surface printing
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that wears off relatively easily.
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So that was way more information than certainly I needed
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or wanted to know about keyboards.
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- Some background on Apple's keyboards,
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so Apple's using ABS, which is the softer plastic.
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Apple has used PBT in the past on older laptops
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before your time, but back in the day,
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the Power Brooks used to come with keyboards
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that it was kind of hilarious.
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They looked kind of like, I mean,
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you've all seen the Apple Extended 2, right,
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even if you've never actually touched one,
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what those key caps look like.
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Imagine those, but imagine you took them into a 3D program
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and you squished them so they're not as high, right?
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And that's what they made the Power Brook key caps look like.
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From the top, it looked like,
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"Oh, that's just a regular key."
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But then you'd look from the side
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and you'd see they were squished out.
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Like they had the same kind of like slanted edges,
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but just much, much smaller.
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I'm pretty sure that back in those days,
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the key caps were PBT.
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Of course, they weren't backlit,
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so that's the whole big thing.
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I think all of Apple's keyboards now
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on their laptops are backlit.
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You can't backlight the PBT
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'cause it doesn't let light through it.
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That's why they were talking about having ABS mixed in
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because you could let the light go through the ABS part,
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like just the letter that's on them or whatever.
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But anyway, Apple's key caps on all their modern keyboards
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all appear to be the very much softer ABS.
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- Anonymous writes, "The backlit keyboard key caps
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"on Apple laptops are injection molded in clear plastic.
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"They are painted with white paint, then black paint.
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"The glyphs are then laser etched using a method
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"that removes the black paint, but not the white paint.
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"Lastly, a protective clear coat is applied."
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Andrew writes, "Your conversation about wear on keyboards
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"reminded me of a recent article
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"by a British cycling journalist."
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Would that be a bikist, Marco?
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Is that correct?
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A bikist journalist.
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- A bikalist.
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Oh my, we're gonna get so much hate mail.
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"On the recent demise of his 10-year-old MacBook,
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"which had survived an impressive amount of abuse."
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You might like to see how worn his most used keys were.
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We will put a link in the show notes
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and maybe Marco will make this chapter art, maybe, maybe.
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Let me tell you, actually, you know what?
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I would not advise you to make this chapter art
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because this keyboard is fricking horrifying.
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Not only is this the ridiculous Tetris key return key,
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which I know the British people love,
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leaving that monstrosity aside,
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this is an abomination.
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Look, this is disgusting, this thing.
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I can't handle it.
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I need to scroll down because this is--
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- This is one of many photos that we got.
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This is the worst one, obviously.
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This is one of many, many, many photos that we got,
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most of which were not 10 years old, to be clear,
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most of which were much younger laptops.
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And if you, you know, to visualize what this picture
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looked like, picture an Apple keyboard
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with all of its black key caps,
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and then have little circles worn through them
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at various places, seeing the mechanism beneath,
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because as the earlier feedback item said,
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Apple's keys are made from clear plastic,
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and then they have black paint and white paint over them.
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And so this, imagine the keys with the black
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and white paint rubbed off,
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just showing you the clear plastic.
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It's like these little window panes of various sizes,
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and you can see where they wore through the black first,
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and then the white second, right?
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And you see kind of like a terrace pattern
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where it's like black, then there's a white ring,
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and then there's a clear spot.
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And you can tell where this person hit the space bar,
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like the one very specific spot all the time.
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Yeah, tons of people had this, and you know, again,
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the leading theory is pH levels,
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either more acidic or more basic, you know,
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sweat from their fingers or whatever,
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essentially wearing through the paint,
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because these are painted clear plastic.
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And if they were a PBT, where it was the color
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of the plastic instead of being painted,
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this wouldn't happen,
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but then you couldn't have the backlights
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unless you double shot them.
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But then there's the, you know,
00:11:27
◼
►
they're saying like to put the dye on the entire key,
00:11:30
◼
►
something along here, like the space bar might warp.
00:11:33
◼
►
So I would say, like, as we mentioned in the last show,
00:11:35
◼
►
keyboard durability on laptops,
00:11:39
◼
►
aesthetic durability, not like, you know,
00:11:43
◼
►
making the keys continue to work,
00:11:44
◼
►
still seems like an area
00:11:45
◼
►
where Apple could use some improvement.
00:11:48
◼
►
I think what they have now is a reasonable-ish compromise,
00:11:50
◼
►
'cause they're lightweight, they're fairly sturdy,
00:11:54
◼
►
they hold up pretty well most of the time,
00:11:56
◼
►
but if you're one of those people who wears away key caps,
00:11:59
◼
►
it's a bummer for you,
00:12:01
◼
►
because you're going to have a worse experience
00:12:03
◼
►
with this keyboard.
00:12:04
◼
►
It'll be nice if the keys still work,
00:12:06
◼
►
and I guess as long as you remember what those letters were
00:12:08
◼
►
before you wore them off with your fingers, you're fine.
00:12:10
◼
►
So functionality is job one,
00:12:12
◼
►
but aesthetic should be somewhere in the top five,
00:12:14
◼
►
and the current keyboards are failing that
00:12:17
◼
►
for some subset of Apple's customers.
00:12:20
◼
►
- This next section is John tries to make Casey feel bad
00:12:23
◼
►
about liking 14-inch laptops, so I'm just gonna--
00:12:27
◼
►
- It's not just John.
00:12:28
◼
►
I mean, if only one of us would've said last episode,
00:12:32
◼
►
you know, with this amount of power draw,
00:12:35
◼
►
so much increase from the M1 generation,
00:12:37
◼
►
maybe the 14-inch might be a bad idea
00:12:40
◼
►
if you get the max chip,
00:12:42
◼
►
because it seems like that's a lot of heat
00:12:44
◼
►
for the 14-inch to quietly and gracefully get rid of
00:12:48
◼
►
compared to the 16-inch.
00:12:49
◼
►
- So John, what happened?
00:12:51
◼
►
- I mean, to be clear, this was true
00:12:53
◼
►
of the M2 and M1 generations as well,
00:12:55
◼
►
which is why Marco gave that advice.
00:12:58
◼
►
But anyway, we'll put a link in the show notes
00:13:01
◼
►
to a YouTube video where they tested
00:13:02
◼
►
the M3 Max 14-inch versus 16-inch.
00:13:06
◼
►
And I think I said on the last show that like,
00:13:07
◼
►
well, you know, maybe the cooling
00:13:09
◼
►
should be roughly equivalent,
00:13:11
◼
►
and the thing that is stuck on top of the M3 Max,
00:13:13
◼
►
like the little whatever heat spreader thing
00:13:15
◼
►
that's pulling the heat off, yeah, that part's the same.
00:13:17
◼
►
Every other part of it is not the same though.
00:13:20
◼
►
First of all, the heat pipe itself
00:13:21
◼
►
that's leading away from the SOC,
00:13:23
◼
►
that heat pipe is wider on the 16-inch.
00:13:25
◼
►
So right away, there's a difference in the cooling system.
00:13:27
◼
►
But the big difference is the fans in the 16-inch
00:13:30
◼
►
are so much bigger fans in the 14-inch.
00:13:33
◼
►
Like they're really using that extra space to good effect.
00:13:37
◼
►
It is a dramatic difference in the size of the fans
00:13:39
◼
►
and obviously the amount of air they can move.
00:13:41
◼
►
Then the fans are blowing that air over,
00:13:44
◼
►
you know, these little fin things
00:13:45
◼
►
that are attached to the heat pipe and there's more of them.
00:13:48
◼
►
Anyway, in the testing, two big things came out.
00:13:51
◼
►
First, that 14-inch is going to run the fans
00:13:54
◼
►
at much higher RPM.
00:13:55
◼
►
So they did like a Cinebench benchmark
00:13:58
◼
►
and the 14-inch was running the fans at 7200 RPM
00:14:02
◼
►
and the 16-inch at 3800.
00:14:03
◼
►
So it was like double the fan speed.
00:14:05
◼
►
And obviously, if the fans are running faster,
00:14:07
◼
►
they're gonna be noisier.
00:14:08
◼
►
And since the 14-inch fans are smaller,
00:14:10
◼
►
they're gonna be a little bit more annoying too
00:14:12
◼
►
because they're higher pitched.
00:14:14
◼
►
That's not great.
00:14:15
◼
►
They stabilize fan speed.
00:14:17
◼
►
I love when they fancy up their benchmarks here.
00:14:20
◼
►
So the average speed in the Cinebench 2024 GPU test
00:14:25
◼
►
was 7200 RPMs for the 14-inch, 1700 RPM for the 16-inch.
00:14:30
◼
►
That's a big difference.
00:14:32
◼
►
That's as in like, you can hear the fans screaming
00:14:34
◼
►
the entire time in the 14-inch and on 16-inch,
00:14:37
◼
►
you probably wouldn't hear anything.
00:14:39
◼
►
And now Casey may be saying, I don't care about that.
00:14:41
◼
►
I don't run 3D benchmarks.
00:14:43
◼
►
I don't care about the average fan speed
00:14:46
◼
►
over a 10-minute run of some type of thing.
00:14:49
◼
►
Then they did an Xcode test
00:14:50
◼
►
and that's really, really hidden Casey where it hurts
00:14:53
◼
►
'cause that's the thing that he does do.
00:14:55
◼
►
And this is not about the fan speed
00:14:57
◼
►
or about temperatures or anything like that.
00:14:59
◼
►
This is the fact that all those things
00:15:01
◼
►
with the fan being higher on the 14-inch
00:15:03
◼
►
translate to the 14-inch being in more thermal distress
00:15:07
◼
►
and thermal distress means thermal throttling.
00:15:10
◼
►
And so this is where the rubber meets the road.
00:15:12
◼
►
The 14-inch is a little bit slower than the 16-inch
00:15:17
◼
►
because it thermal throttles when doing Xcode compiles.
00:15:20
◼
►
Now this is probably a big Xcode compile.
00:15:22
◼
►
Maybe it's bigger than any of Casey's apps.
00:15:24
◼
►
Maybe it doesn't affect him or whatever.
00:15:25
◼
►
And the difference isn't huge.
00:15:26
◼
►
- Yeah, 'cause this is, it took like almost a minute and a half
00:15:28
◼
►
to do this compile.
00:15:29
◼
►
So like if you're doing a very long sustained CPU
00:15:33
◼
►
or GPU drain, you're gonna hit throttling on the 14-inch.
00:15:38
◼
►
No question.
00:15:39
◼
►
Like that's what this is clearly showing.
00:15:40
◼
►
Like if you are pegging the CPU or GPU for a minute or more,
00:15:45
◼
►
you are almost certainly gonna see throttling on the 14-inch
00:15:48
◼
►
that is not present on the 16-inch.
00:15:50
◼
►
- Yeah, and the Xcode benchmark was 82 seconds
00:15:52
◼
►
on the 14-inch and 72 on the 16-inch.
00:15:55
◼
►
So not a huge difference.
00:15:55
◼
►
Not like the fan speed difference.
00:15:57
◼
►
I feel like the big quality of life difference
00:15:58
◼
►
is the fan speeds.
00:15:59
◼
►
- I mean, that's like an M2 to M3 difference
00:16:01
◼
►
in performance though.
00:16:02
◼
►
But again, this is a long sustained one.
00:16:05
◼
►
Like if my build takes 11 seconds,
00:16:08
◼
►
it's probably in that span,
00:16:10
◼
►
I probably wouldn't see the difference
00:16:11
◼
►
between a 14 and a 16.
00:16:13
◼
►
But if you're doing builds that take a minute,
00:16:14
◼
►
you probably will.
00:16:15
◼
►
- Yeah, so I mean, as the case with all these laptops,
00:16:18
◼
►
right, it's just a question of how much the cooling system
00:16:23
◼
►
can fight off the inevitable heat saturation
00:16:27
◼
►
due to long-range jobs.
00:16:28
◼
►
It's rare that a laptop, a very high-powered,
00:16:31
◼
►
top-of-the-line, stuff-to-the-gills laptop,
00:16:34
◼
►
can sustain its full power for a very long period of time
00:16:36
◼
►
because the cooling systems usually aren't adequate
00:16:39
◼
►
to get all that heat out of there to keep up with it.
00:16:41
◼
►
Especially if you have some contrived,
00:16:43
◼
►
like CPU maxed out at the same time as GPU maxed out,
00:16:47
◼
►
the same time as a neural engine maxed out,
00:16:48
◼
►
the same time as a video encoder matched out.
00:16:50
◼
►
Like they're not gonna be able to deal with that.
00:16:51
◼
►
But almost no real job is like that.
00:16:53
◼
►
That's why the GPU benchmarks are so brutal here
00:16:55
◼
►
because this was just a benchmark of the GPU
00:16:58
◼
►
and the fan speeds were 7,000 RPM versus 1,700.
00:17:02
◼
►
That's not even close.
00:17:03
◼
►
That's just, they don't,
00:17:05
◼
►
even just stressing the GPU is enough
00:17:08
◼
►
to really, really see a difference.
00:17:09
◼
►
And that's relevant to people playing games.
00:17:11
◼
►
If you're gonna play games on your laptop,
00:17:13
◼
►
you're like, I want one of these M series laptops,
00:17:15
◼
►
so I don't need to hear the fans screaming when I play games.
00:17:19
◼
►
Get a 16-inch.
00:17:20
◼
►
You have a fighting chance of making that real
00:17:22
◼
►
because if you wanna find something
00:17:25
◼
►
that's gonna really stress the GPU,
00:17:26
◼
►
yeah, playing a game for a long period of time will do it.
00:17:29
◼
►
I don't think this means that a case
00:17:31
◼
►
you should get a 16-inch.
00:17:33
◼
►
I think the 16-inch is too big as well.
00:17:34
◼
►
I think the whole point of being portable
00:17:35
◼
►
is to have something small.
00:17:37
◼
►
But if you are concerned about sustained performance,
00:17:39
◼
►
A, don't get a laptop, but B.
00:17:42
◼
►
- Hey, the 16-inch sustains it just fine.
00:17:44
◼
►
- Well, no, but the 16-inch eventually heat soaks as well,
00:17:46
◼
►
especially if you do a CPU plus GPU combo.
00:17:48
◼
►
These benchmarks are a little bit shorter.
00:17:51
◼
►
Yeah, and also the other thing they were measuring,
00:17:53
◼
►
which isn't in any of these graphs in the shots here,
00:17:55
◼
►
is clock speed.
00:17:55
◼
►
Like they're just seeing,
00:17:57
◼
►
are they hitting their rated top clock speed?
00:17:59
◼
►
And both of these laptops occasionally,
00:18:02
◼
►
depending on the benchmark,
00:18:03
◼
►
would never actually achieve their rated top clock speed
00:18:07
◼
►
or would do it very briefly in the beginning of the test
00:18:09
◼
►
and then never see it again, right?
00:18:11
◼
►
So there's always room for improvement, right?
00:18:13
◼
►
16-inch versus 14,
00:18:14
◼
►
doesn't mean the 16-inch never thermal throttles,
00:18:16
◼
►
it just means it does it less than the 14,
00:18:18
◼
►
which is why it's coming out ahead in these tests.
00:18:20
◼
►
- I would say these tests prove my hunch last week
00:18:25
◼
►
that if you're going for the max chip,
00:18:28
◼
►
maybe don't get the 14-inch.
00:18:30
◼
►
Like if you're getting the 14-inch
00:18:32
◼
►
for like an all-around balance of portability and size,
00:18:35
◼
►
maybe you're going for the M3 Pro chip,
00:18:38
◼
►
that's a different story.
00:18:39
◼
►
It can probably handle that a lot better.
00:18:40
◼
►
But if you're getting the M3 Max
00:18:43
◼
►
and you intend to push it at all,
00:18:45
◼
►
which you probably are if you're getting the Max,
00:18:48
◼
►
you should be aware of this.
00:18:49
◼
►
Like this might not change your mind,
00:18:51
◼
►
but this is something that you should really be aware of,
00:18:52
◼
►
that the M3 Max seems to be substantially crushing
00:18:57
◼
►
the 14-inch's thermal system more than the M1 generation did.
00:19:01
◼
►
The M2 was probably somewhere in the middle
00:19:02
◼
►
'cause its power was probably, it was between the two.
00:19:06
◼
►
But they've ramped up the peak power draw of these chips
00:19:10
◼
►
compared to previous generations.
00:19:12
◼
►
The M1 draws less power than the M2.
00:19:15
◼
►
The M2 draws less power than the M3 Max in all those cases.
00:19:18
◼
►
And so be aware of that,
00:19:20
◼
►
that they have raised the power envelope
00:19:23
◼
►
without increasing the thermal dissipation capacity
00:19:27
◼
►
significantly.
00:19:28
◼
►
So if you're coming from a 14-inch M1 Max
00:19:31
◼
►
and you're thinking, well, it handled my M1 Max
00:19:33
◼
►
just fine in the 14,
00:19:35
◼
►
the same can't necessarily apply to the M3 Max.
00:19:38
◼
►
Like you have to reevaluate
00:19:39
◼
►
because they're not dropping replacements
00:19:42
◼
►
in terms of power and thermals.
00:19:43
◼
►
The M3 Max uses substantially more power
00:19:46
◼
►
and makes substantially more heat under load
00:19:49
◼
►
than the M1 Max did.
00:19:50
◼
►
So that might change your calculus
00:19:53
◼
►
of whether you want a 14 or a 16.
00:19:56
◼
►
- I think the cooling system is upgraded a tiny bit
00:19:59
◼
►
in the M3 generation versus the M2.
00:20:01
◼
►
I think the heat spreader thingy on the SOC
00:20:03
◼
►
is a little bit larger in this generation.
00:20:04
◼
►
And I'm not sure about the fans
00:20:06
◼
►
if they are exactly the same,
00:20:08
◼
►
but I don't think it's entirely true
00:20:12
◼
►
they just use exactly the same cooling system.
00:20:14
◼
►
Otherwise it would never be able to do it
00:20:15
◼
►
because the power difference and the 16-inch
00:20:17
◼
►
comparing the M2 16-inch versus M3 Max 16-inch,
00:20:21
◼
►
it's a pretty big difference.
00:20:22
◼
►
The M3 Max is pushing like 50 watts
00:20:24
◼
►
and the M2 Max was only ever getting like 36 or so.
00:20:27
◼
►
So there's a lot of extra heat.
00:20:29
◼
►
- Yeah, and the M1 generation I think was in the 20s.
00:20:31
◼
►
It's substantially more power and heat here.
00:20:34
◼
►
And also that also results in a larger difference
00:20:38
◼
►
between the two models in battery life
00:20:40
◼
►
than there used to be.
00:20:41
◼
►
There was always a decent difference
00:20:42
◼
►
'cause the 16-inch battery is just much bigger.
00:20:44
◼
►
And yeah, the screen uses more power
00:20:46
◼
►
than the 14 'cause it's bigger,
00:20:47
◼
►
but not that much more power.
00:20:49
◼
►
So the 16 is still the battery monster.
00:20:51
◼
►
But in this case, keep in mind,
00:20:54
◼
►
again, the CPU is drawing more power
00:20:57
◼
►
than the previous generations
00:20:58
◼
►
at the same marketing name level.
00:21:00
◼
►
And also, I don't know how much of a factor this is,
00:21:04
◼
►
but if those fans are spinning faster,
00:21:07
◼
►
fans also use power.
00:21:08
◼
►
So the result after these tests,
00:21:11
◼
►
the result in this video,
00:21:13
◼
►
the 14-inch battery was substantially more drained
00:21:17
◼
►
than the 16-inch.
00:21:17
◼
►
It was not a small difference.
00:21:19
◼
►
So again, just don't make assumptions
00:21:22
◼
►
based on whatever worked for you in the M1 generation.
00:21:25
◼
►
Don't assume the same thing will work for you
00:21:27
◼
►
in the M3 generation
00:21:28
◼
►
because the power levels are very different.
00:21:31
◼
►
- I understand everything that you guys are saying,
00:21:33
◼
►
but I don't feel like I'm bumping
00:21:37
◼
►
into thermal throttling issues anytime
00:21:39
◼
►
other than when I'm doing transcosos with FFmpeg,
00:21:42
◼
►
at which case, okay, yeah, I'm reaping what I sowed
00:21:45
◼
►
or whatever the turn of phrase is.
00:21:46
◼
►
You know what I'm trying to say.
00:21:48
◼
►
Okay, that's fine.
00:21:49
◼
►
The other thing is I didn't want to go down
00:21:52
◼
►
from 64 gigs of memory.
00:21:53
◼
►
I probably could have.
00:21:54
◼
►
And been fine, but I didn't want to.
00:21:57
◼
►
And in order to do that in this generation,
00:21:59
◼
►
you have to have an M3 max.
00:22:00
◼
►
Like that's the end of the meeting.
00:22:01
◼
►
So in fact, you not only need an M3 max,
00:22:03
◼
►
you need the baller M3 max.
00:22:05
◼
►
That's the only, I'm looking at the configurator right now.
00:22:07
◼
►
It's the only option in the 14.
00:22:09
◼
►
So if I want 64 gigs, well, guess what?
00:22:12
◼
►
I'm getting an M3 max.
00:22:13
◼
►
In fact, the Pro appears to top out at 36 gigs,
00:22:16
◼
►
which even for me is probably fine,
00:22:19
◼
►
but I didn't want that.
00:22:21
◼
►
I wanted 64.
00:22:22
◼
►
And honestly, I have zero regrets about this machine.
00:22:25
◼
►
I've been using it at home.
00:22:26
◼
►
I've been using it away from home.
00:22:28
◼
►
I freaking love this computer.
00:22:29
◼
►
And I mean, I freaking love my M1 max as well,
00:22:31
◼
►
don't get me wrong, but this computer is great.
00:22:33
◼
►
I haven't heard the fans except one time
00:22:35
◼
►
when I was doing a transcode.
00:22:36
◼
►
I have no reason to believe battery life is suffering
00:22:39
◼
►
compared to the last one.
00:22:40
◼
►
It's been flawless so far.
00:22:43
◼
►
I don't argue any of what you guys are saying.
00:22:45
◼
►
I'm not trying to say that you're wrong or lying
00:22:46
◼
►
or anything like that.
00:22:47
◼
►
It's just in real world use,
00:22:49
◼
►
I am not personally noticing,
00:22:52
◼
►
not to say it's not affecting me,
00:22:53
◼
►
but I'm not noticing the results
00:22:55
◼
►
of any of these problems in the 14.
00:22:57
◼
►
And for me, and I totally understand, Marco,
00:23:00
◼
►
why you reached a different conclusion,
00:23:01
◼
►
but for me, I don't want a freaking aircraft carrier
00:23:04
◼
►
in my backpack.
00:23:05
◼
►
And I travel with this machine often enough
00:23:07
◼
►
that that matters to me.
00:23:09
◼
►
And so I made the choice I made,
00:23:11
◼
►
and I think it's the right one for me.
00:23:12
◼
►
You made the choice you made.
00:23:13
◼
►
I think it's the right one for you.
00:23:14
◼
►
And everyone's happy.
00:23:16
◼
►
Why won't you just let me be happy?
00:23:17
◼
►
- No, and look, I think it's important to point out
00:23:21
◼
►
if the 14 inch still worked for you, that's great,
00:23:24
◼
►
but people who are buying it should know this
00:23:26
◼
►
ahead of time, that it's going to have these trade-offs,
00:23:29
◼
►
that the M1 generation of it had fewer trade-offs
00:23:32
◼
►
compared to the M3 generation.
00:23:34
◼
►
And if what you are seeking
00:23:36
◼
►
is the highest performing laptop,
00:23:40
◼
►
in the M1 generation, you could say,
00:23:41
◼
►
well, these are basically the same.
00:23:43
◼
►
Now you can't really say that.
00:23:45
◼
►
Now the 16 inches is noticeably higher performing
00:23:48
◼
►
with a lot of workloads.
00:23:49
◼
►
So it is worth knowing.
00:23:50
◼
►
Also, again, if stuff like fan noise
00:23:52
◼
►
is really critical to you, then again,
00:23:55
◼
►
that's something that's worth knowing ahead of time.
00:23:57
◼
►
So that's why.
00:23:58
◼
►
And for many people, they're gonna still get
00:24:00
◼
►
the 14 inch like you and be totally happy with,
00:24:02
◼
►
and that's great.
00:24:03
◼
►
But again, you gotta know going into it,
00:24:06
◼
►
the assumptions that you might have made
00:24:07
◼
►
from previous generations of the M series laptops
00:24:10
◼
►
are a little bit different now.
00:24:12
◼
►
- I do wonder if there's not a low tech solution to this,
00:24:15
◼
►
with the memory target, a little RGB fan cooler thing
00:24:18
◼
►
on the back of your phone to get sustained frame rates.
00:24:21
◼
►
- Just get some giant plate.
00:24:22
◼
►
- Yeah, like I know they make laptop cooler type things,
00:24:25
◼
►
but I do wonder.
00:24:26
◼
►
- They're really quiet and elegant.
00:24:28
◼
►
- Yeah, right.
00:24:29
◼
►
But I do wonder if you say you get a 14 inch
00:24:31
◼
►
and you wanna use it in desktop mode
00:24:32
◼
►
and you don't want it to thermal throttle,
00:24:33
◼
►
just how much extra cooling would it take?
00:24:35
◼
►
Probably not that much.
00:24:36
◼
►
Like, and probably could be applied externally.
00:24:38
◼
►
I don't, you know, again, the caveats about condensation
00:24:40
◼
►
and don't destroy your computer and blah, blah, blah,
00:24:42
◼
►
whatever, but like based on how well it works
00:24:44
◼
►
on the little phone thing to sort of sustain frame rates
00:24:47
◼
►
when the phone could not do it without the cooler,
00:24:49
◼
►
I do wonder if just a little bit of extra help
00:24:51
◼
►
on a 14 inch would help it not thermal throttle at all,
00:24:54
◼
►
because it's, you know, it's,
00:24:55
◼
►
the fans are almost doing the job
00:24:57
◼
►
'cause yeah, the fan speed difference is huge.
00:24:59
◼
►
Those fans are working overtime, right?
00:25:00
◼
►
But the benchmark difference is not that big.
00:25:03
◼
►
So it's like the 14 inches cooling system is overmatched,
00:25:07
◼
►
but just by a little bit.
00:25:08
◼
►
So I wonder if you just gave it a little bit of help,
00:25:10
◼
►
which is unlike lots of other computer things.
00:25:11
◼
►
Like, oh, I didn't get enough cores.
00:25:13
◼
►
Well, there's not really anything you can do
00:25:14
◼
►
to add more cores to your computer,
00:25:15
◼
►
but if thermal throttling is your problem,
00:25:18
◼
►
pointing a fan at the back of your laptop
00:25:20
◼
►
when it's like sitting upright, you know,
00:25:22
◼
►
like in a bookshelf type thing might be enough.
00:25:24
◼
►
- One potential limitation there is,
00:25:27
◼
►
remember we learned this from people who wrote in
00:25:29
◼
►
like a couple of years ago, this came up
00:25:32
◼
►
where we were talking about like the MacBook Air
00:25:33
◼
►
thermal design without any fan,
00:25:35
◼
►
that like there are certain standards
00:25:37
◼
►
that different, you know, governments and things set
00:25:40
◼
►
about how hot the outside of a laptop can get
00:25:44
◼
►
for safety reasons.
00:25:45
◼
►
And so the way these are designed,
00:25:48
◼
►
usually the processor is not like heat pipe
00:25:53
◼
►
directly to the exterior case.
00:25:55
◼
►
Like there's usually some kind of air gap there
00:25:57
◼
►
so that the processor is intentionally not
00:26:01
◼
►
transferring its heat much to the metal case.
00:26:05
◼
►
And because of that, it actually makes it difficult
00:26:08
◼
►
to make external coolers that are very effective
00:26:11
◼
►
because you're not getting all that heat away
00:26:14
◼
►
from the chip through the case very much.
00:26:16
◼
►
It's mostly dumping it into the air.
00:26:18
◼
►
So it's a little bit harder.
00:26:20
◼
►
So you couldn't, for instance, just stick like
00:26:22
◼
►
a Peltier Element cooler on the back of a laptop
00:26:24
◼
►
and have it be--
00:26:25
◼
►
- Oh, sure you could.
00:26:26
◼
►
You just need a temperature differential.
00:26:29
◼
►
And one exists.
00:26:29
◼
►
I mean, feel the bottom of a laptop
00:26:31
◼
►
when it's hard working.
00:26:32
◼
►
I know what you're saying, like not all the heat
00:26:33
◼
►
is being dumped out there, but there's still
00:26:34
◼
►
a temperature differential.
00:26:35
◼
►
Like that's a test that someone should try.
00:26:37
◼
►
Like just consider that.
00:26:38
◼
►
I guess the reverse of it is like,
00:26:41
◼
►
if you're doing some sustained workload with your laptop,
00:26:43
◼
►
don't throw it on your bed on top of your comforter.
00:26:45
◼
►
Like don't, you know what I mean?
00:26:47
◼
►
Like, you see how kids cheap laptops,
00:26:49
◼
►
they have no idea that these are like
00:26:50
◼
►
living, breathing things, right?
00:26:51
◼
►
It's a little empathy for the machine here.
00:26:53
◼
►
Don't take your laptop and just put it on a big,
00:26:55
◼
►
soft pillow surrounded by blankets.
00:26:57
◼
►
Like it needs, you need to get it with the lid closed,
00:27:00
◼
►
of course, right?
00:27:01
◼
►
- Naturally.
00:27:02
◼
►
- Give it a fighting chance.
00:27:04
◼
►
- Yeah, and just as a final note,
00:27:06
◼
►
'cause I'd like to move on,
00:27:07
◼
►
I feel like there's a lot of FUD going around right now.
00:27:11
◼
►
These, I really don't subscribe,
00:27:15
◼
►
I don't have any anecdotal data
00:27:17
◼
►
that indicates that this problem
00:27:18
◼
►
is any worse with this generation
00:27:20
◼
►
than it was with my two year old laptop.
00:27:21
◼
►
Like yes, again, I'm not trying to argue
00:27:23
◼
►
that the facts that you're presenting to me are wrong.
00:27:26
◼
►
All I'm trying to say is that in day to day use,
00:27:29
◼
►
I straight up do not hear the fans.
00:27:31
◼
►
So yes, in the occasion that I can hear the fans,
00:27:34
◼
►
yes, they probably are faster,
00:27:36
◼
►
they probably are more annoying, they're probably louder.
00:27:39
◼
►
I don't debate that,
00:27:40
◼
►
but I feel like we're making a problem out of nothing here.
00:27:43
◼
►
This machine is phenomenal.
00:27:45
◼
►
If you want a desktop replacement
00:27:48
◼
►
that you occasionally move, 100% get the 16, no argument.
00:27:51
◼
►
But if you want a computer that you move occasionally,
00:27:53
◼
►
and you favor that, you know,
00:27:56
◼
►
the ease of moving it over anything else,
00:27:58
◼
►
which is where I am, get the 14.
00:28:00
◼
►
Don't let these two knuckleheads
00:28:02
◼
►
try to convince you otherwise.
00:28:03
◼
►
It's a perfectly good computer.
00:28:05
◼
►
There's no need to, there's no need to--
00:28:06
◼
►
- I'm not trying to convince, I also agree.
00:28:07
◼
►
I think the 16 is just too big for a laptop,
00:28:09
◼
►
and really you should just get a desktop anyway.
00:28:11
◼
►
- Oh my God, it's so good, it's so good.
00:28:13
◼
►
The 16 is so good.
00:28:15
◼
►
There's basically no trade off, except it is large.
00:28:20
◼
►
But again, when you look at, I mean, we are so spoiled now.
00:28:24
◼
►
The 16 inch MacBook Pro is lighter
00:28:28
◼
►
than most 15 inches of most of our computing using careers.
00:28:34
◼
►
And it is 16 only because they made the bezel smaller.
00:28:38
◼
►
So the footprint is roughly 15 inch class
00:28:41
◼
►
that we've had forever.
00:28:42
◼
►
The weight is similar or lighter
00:28:45
◼
►
than most 15 inch class laptops we've ever used.
00:28:48
◼
►
It is glorious.
00:28:49
◼
►
I'm not gonna argue that the 14 inch
00:28:51
◼
►
isn't noticeably smaller, and lighter it is.
00:28:54
◼
►
It is noticeably smaller and lighter.
00:28:56
◼
►
I would maybe argue that if that's really your top priority,
00:29:01
◼
►
maybe consider the Air.
00:29:03
◼
►
But the 16 inch, again, it's all relative.
00:29:07
◼
►
Yes, it is larger and heavier than yours,
00:29:10
◼
►
but compared to anything ever in the history of computing,
00:29:14
◼
►
these are all very thin and light, and it's fine.
00:29:17
◼
►
And even like, again, when you're looking at,
00:29:19
◼
►
suppose you're putting it in a backpack
00:29:21
◼
►
and bringing it to wherever.
00:29:23
◼
►
The weight of your backpack empty is probably a few pounds.
00:29:28
◼
►
Like, it depends on what kind of bag you have.
00:29:29
◼
►
The weight of your total carry
00:29:32
◼
►
of what most people bring around in their backpacks every day
00:29:35
◼
►
may be 10 or 15 pounds.
00:29:37
◼
►
And so the difference in laptop weight
00:29:39
◼
►
of like a one pound difference between two things--
00:29:42
◼
►
- That's fair.
00:29:43
◼
►
- Is not really that significant.
00:29:44
◼
►
It feels significant when it's in your hand,
00:29:47
◼
►
but like however you are carrying it,
00:29:49
◼
►
generally speaking for most people,
00:29:51
◼
►
the difference between a 16 inch MacBook Pro
00:29:53
◼
►
and a 14 inch MacBook Pro, being like a pound or whatever,
00:29:56
◼
►
is not a massive difference
00:29:58
◼
►
in whatever they're carrying it in total.
00:30:01
◼
►
So again, if it matters to you
00:30:03
◼
►
and if you really still wanna minimize it, great.
00:30:05
◼
►
I get that, please do.
00:30:07
◼
►
But these are trade-offs that you should be aware of.
00:30:10
◼
►
Despite what you said, Casey,
00:30:12
◼
►
they weren't as severe of trade-offs in the M1 generation
00:30:15
◼
►
because the total power usage of the M1 chips was way lower.
00:30:20
◼
►
Like, rather the peak power usage, like under load.
00:30:23
◼
►
The peak power usage was way lower in the M1 generation
00:30:25
◼
►
than it is in the M3 generation.
00:30:26
◼
►
So that is a difference that is worth noting.
00:30:29
◼
►
And before, again, with the M1 generation,
00:30:34
◼
►
you could say these computers
00:30:35
◼
►
are basically the exact same computer,
00:30:37
◼
►
just bigger and smaller.
00:30:38
◼
►
And now that's a little harder to say.
00:30:40
◼
►
There's a much bigger asterisk on that now.
00:30:42
◼
►
- So let's talk about chip packaging.
00:30:44
◼
►
Johnny Srouji had an interview in July
00:30:47
◼
►
with his alma mater who is a college that's,
00:30:50
◼
►
the name is escaping me, it was somewhere in Israel.
00:30:53
◼
►
And he went back there and did an interview
00:30:55
◼
►
with somebody there and talked a bit about chip packaging.
00:30:59
◼
►
John, do you wanna either intro this or read it to me
00:31:02
◼
►
or tell me how you wanna handle this?
00:31:04
◼
►
- Yeah, so this is the interview
00:31:05
◼
►
that I referenced on a past show
00:31:07
◼
►
where I figured we're talking about,
00:31:09
◼
►
we're talking about three-nanometer processes
00:31:10
◼
►
or stuff like that.
00:31:11
◼
►
But anyway, I've said that Apple executives
00:31:13
◼
►
won't reveal anything about future products, obviously,
00:31:15
◼
►
but anytime one of them talks,
00:31:16
◼
►
they'll usually say something that lets you know
00:31:19
◼
►
some vague future direction.
00:31:21
◼
►
And in the interview, Johnny Srouji said
00:31:24
◼
►
that he thought that packaging was a potential area
00:31:27
◼
►
of innovation, and I wanted to follow up on that today
00:31:30
◼
►
to first provide the excerpt from the interview
00:31:34
◼
►
because the whole blah, blah, blah is interesting
00:31:36
◼
►
is I think that was like Tim Cook saying
00:31:37
◼
►
the wrist is interesting or some BS like that.
00:31:39
◼
►
And whatever the quote from Jobs
00:31:42
◼
►
when he was talking about cell phones was similar,
00:31:44
◼
►
that's how we all knew Apple was making a phone.
00:31:46
◼
►
So I just wanted to get the actual words
00:31:48
◼
►
that he said about packaging
00:31:50
◼
►
because there was also recently an interview
00:31:54
◼
►
of Intel CEO, Pat Gelsinger
00:31:57
◼
►
with Ben Thompson of Stratechery,
00:32:00
◼
►
or Strateecery, however you wanna pronounce it,
00:32:02
◼
►
where the Intel CEO talked about, you guessed it,
00:32:07
◼
►
packaging and how important it is to Intel
00:32:10
◼
►
and for the future.
00:32:11
◼
►
And so I feel like this is a confluence of events
00:32:13
◼
►
that's worth digging into deeper,
00:32:14
◼
►
even if this, as we said in the past episode,
00:32:17
◼
►
of this generation, it just looks like the M3
00:32:18
◼
►
is gonna be, M3 Ultra is just gonna be two M3 Maxes
00:32:22
◼
►
stuck together just like it was before,
00:32:23
◼
►
which is fine and great and it'll be awesome,
00:32:25
◼
►
but keep your eye on the future for packaging stuff.
00:32:27
◼
►
So yeah, Casey, you just wanna go through
00:32:29
◼
►
the interview segment thing.
00:32:30
◼
►
- Sure, so how about I'll play the role of the interviewer
00:32:33
◼
►
and you can play the role of Johnny Cerusci.
00:32:35
◼
►
- Sure, give me the longer one.
00:32:36
◼
►
- Yeah, well, all right, fine, you know what?
00:32:37
◼
►
I'll take one. - I don't know if we can play.
00:32:38
◼
►
We can play acted.
00:32:39
◼
►
If we get Marco to be mixed in, he could be the announcer.
00:32:42
◼
►
- Oh gosh, all right, so you be the interviewer,
00:32:44
◼
►
I will be Johnny.
00:32:45
◼
►
Let's do it that way. - Well, you don't need
00:32:46
◼
►
two people to read them.
00:32:47
◼
►
We don't need to, you can just be one person.
00:32:48
◼
►
- Play with me in the space, John, come on.
00:32:50
◼
►
Are you really just gonna leave me hanging like this?
00:32:53
◼
►
- Jesus, wow. - I forgot, is it my line?
00:32:55
◼
►
- Yes, it's you. - Line?
00:32:56
◼
►
- Line. - We're actually doing this?
00:32:59
◼
►
- Yes, yes, you are the interviewer, John.
00:33:01
◼
►
- All right, this is the interviewer.
00:33:03
◼
►
What are the next challenges in the design
00:33:05
◼
►
and architecture of processors that Apple should tackle
00:33:07
◼
►
to get to the real next generation of processing?
00:33:09
◼
►
This is where the interviewer starts asking questions
00:33:11
◼
►
like they shouldn't ask or they know
00:33:12
◼
►
that I'm gonna get the answer.
00:33:13
◼
►
What's the next challenge?
00:33:16
◼
►
What should they tackle to get to the real next generation?
00:33:18
◼
►
I'm not asking a question about the future,
00:33:20
◼
►
but I totally am.
00:33:21
◼
►
Anyway, here's what Johnny Srdi said.
00:33:23
◼
►
- It is getting more and more challenging.
00:33:24
◼
►
Those of you who follow CMOS technology,
00:33:26
◼
►
whether it's five nanometer or beyond,
00:33:28
◼
►
that's getting harder and harder, which I think is great,
00:33:31
◼
►
by the way, because if it gets harder,
00:33:33
◼
►
that means Apple will try better and better, so that's good.
00:33:37
◼
►
I'm not going to describe our future roadmap,
00:33:40
◼
►
but there are many challenges.
00:33:41
◼
►
For example, when you take CMOS technology,
00:33:43
◼
►
I think one of the things that is going to be important
00:33:44
◼
►
is packaging without getting into details.
00:33:47
◼
►
So the way you package the chip is going to be important,
00:33:50
◼
►
or maybe you architect the chip in a different way.
00:33:52
◼
►
- And I know you think like, that's saying nothing.
00:33:55
◼
►
What are you talking about?
00:33:55
◼
►
This was the quote?
00:33:56
◼
►
Yeah, they don't say a lot,
00:33:58
◼
►
but the fact that they say anything about anything,
00:34:01
◼
►
oh, packaging, just that word, packaging,
00:34:04
◼
►
what does that mean?
00:34:05
◼
►
I mean, again, Apple already does interesting things
00:34:07
◼
►
with packaging.
00:34:08
◼
►
The silicon interposer is an interesting thing
00:34:09
◼
►
done with packaging, and we've talked a lot
00:34:11
◼
►
about packaging technology in the past,
00:34:12
◼
►
but this is the tiny tidbit they left.
00:34:15
◼
►
Maybe you architect your chip a different way.
00:34:17
◼
►
Packaging is interesting.
00:34:19
◼
►
I do like these typical Apple bravado,
00:34:23
◼
►
where they said, oh, the world of silicon,
00:34:27
◼
►
it's getting more and more difficult,
00:34:28
◼
►
and that's great for Apple,
00:34:29
◼
►
because when things get hard, we will excel.
00:34:32
◼
►
That'll make us try harder, 'cause we're the best,
00:34:34
◼
►
and basically bring it on, because the harder it gets,
00:34:36
◼
►
the more you'll see that Apple is the best,
00:34:38
◼
►
which is great for him to say.
00:34:40
◼
►
We'll see if it actually turns out to be true
00:34:42
◼
►
how the cell modem's going, Johnny.
00:34:44
◼
►
I thought that was some top-tier Apple executive
00:34:51
◼
►
bragging in this interview, but anyway,
00:34:52
◼
►
that's what he said about packaging.
00:34:53
◼
►
He just dropped the word packaging,
00:34:55
◼
►
so now here is the Intel CEO, Pat Gelsinger,
00:34:58
◼
►
also talking about packaging.
00:34:59
◼
►
- So I will be playing the role of Pat Gelsinger
00:35:01
◼
►
in this one, since that's the longer one.
00:35:04
◼
►
Gelsinger says, this idea of chiplets, I think,
00:35:07
◼
►
is the new way that all chips get designed,
00:35:09
◼
►
the idea of advanced packaging, multiple chips
00:35:11
◼
►
into the advanced package, and whether that's an MCP,
00:35:14
◼
►
or multi-chip packaging, whether that's a two-and-a-half
00:35:16
◼
►
or 3D construction, I do think that becomes the standard.
00:35:19
◼
►
- And this is Ben Thompson.
00:35:20
◼
►
The interviewer was saying,
00:35:21
◼
►
why is advanced packaging the future?
00:35:23
◼
►
You can see, you can ask Intel questions about the future.
00:35:26
◼
►
I know this has been a big focus for Intel.
00:35:28
◼
►
It's something that you wanna talk about,
00:35:29
◼
►
and from everything I know,
00:35:30
◼
►
your technology is leading the way.
00:35:31
◼
►
Why is that so important,
00:35:32
◼
►
in addition to the traditional Moore's Law?
00:35:34
◼
►
Why do we need to start stacking these chiplets?
00:35:37
◼
►
Give me the top reasons.
00:35:38
◼
►
So this, Ben is asking a good question here,
00:35:40
◼
►
which is like, of all the things, the problems Intel has,
00:35:43
◼
►
and you can read the full interview,
00:35:44
◼
►
he's interviewed the new Intel CEO a few times,
00:35:48
◼
►
Intel's got some problems.
00:35:49
◼
►
They fell behind, they're getting beat
00:35:51
◼
►
in the fab business by TSMC.
00:35:52
◼
►
Why in the world is Intel carrying anything about packaging?
00:35:55
◼
►
And more importantly, why is Intel putting tons of money
00:35:58
◼
►
into innovations in packaging?
00:36:00
◼
►
And so he's asking like, what's the deal?
00:36:02
◼
►
Give me the top reasons for the whole focus on packaging.
00:36:06
◼
►
- One is, now you're able to take
00:36:07
◼
►
the performance-sensitive transistors,
00:36:09
◼
►
and move them to the leading edge node,
00:36:11
◼
►
but leverage some other technologies for other things.
00:36:14
◼
►
So you get to mix and match technologies more efficiently,
00:36:16
◼
►
effectively this way.
00:36:18
◼
►
Jon, would you like to jump in,
00:36:19
◼
►
and explain what I, Pat Gelsinger, just said?
00:36:21
◼
►
- Yeah, so this is part of Intel's problem,
00:36:23
◼
►
is they, you know, their fabs fell behind.
00:36:27
◼
►
They couldn't get off of whatever,
00:36:28
◼
►
or were they stuck on 14 nanometer for ages, right?
00:36:31
◼
►
And TSMC went ahead of them,
00:36:33
◼
►
and has been ahead since then.
00:36:35
◼
►
And so they're like, look, we know at Intel
00:36:38
◼
►
we have some fab problems.
00:36:39
◼
►
In fact, Intel is paying TSMC to fab a bunch of its stuff.
00:36:43
◼
►
They're saying, one of the things that we can do
00:36:45
◼
►
by breaking the chips up into smaller individual pieces,
00:36:48
◼
►
is get the most important parts to be fabbed by TSMC,
00:36:53
◼
►
not by us, on like the good process node,
00:36:57
◼
►
and then use other lesser fabs, like Intel's fabs,
00:37:01
◼
►
to fab the parts of the chip where it doesn't matter as much.
00:37:04
◼
►
So if you're Intel, you don't wanna pay TSMC to,
00:37:07
◼
►
and Intel, you can read all about it in Ben's coverage,
00:37:09
◼
►
but Intel is trying to split where they're like,
00:37:11
◼
►
we're gonna have a fabbing part of the company,
00:37:13
◼
►
and then we're gonna have the chip design part
00:37:14
◼
►
of the company, and we're gonna pretend
00:37:15
◼
►
like they're separate.
00:37:16
◼
►
So the fabbing part is way behind and needs to catch up,
00:37:19
◼
►
but the part that owns like x86 and makes the chips,
00:37:21
◼
►
we think that's good.
00:37:22
◼
►
So, you know, they're using TSMC,
00:37:24
◼
►
but they don't wanna have US TSMC for everything.
00:37:26
◼
►
That would get very expensive.
00:37:27
◼
►
Intel's big advantage is they fab their own chips,
00:37:30
◼
►
and they design their own chips,
00:37:31
◼
►
their vertical integration, everything.
00:37:33
◼
►
So like, this is why, one reason why packaging is important,
00:37:37
◼
►
Intel can pay the minimum amount required
00:37:39
◼
►
to the company with the good fabs
00:37:41
◼
►
to make the part of the chip where it's most important
00:37:44
◼
►
for it to be on the top process level,
00:37:47
◼
►
and then they can use cheaper stuff for the other parts.
00:37:50
◼
►
- Second, we can actually compose the chiplets
00:37:52
◼
►
to more appropriate die sizes
00:37:54
◼
►
to maximize defect density as well.
00:37:57
◼
►
If you have a monster server die,
00:37:58
◼
►
you're going to be dictated to be N minus two, N minus three,
00:38:02
◼
►
just because of the monster die size.
00:38:04
◼
►
I get to carve up that server chip.
00:38:05
◼
►
I get to move the advanced nodes per computing more rapidly
00:38:09
◼
►
and not be subject to some of the issues,
00:38:11
◼
►
defect density early in the life
00:38:12
◼
►
of a new process technology.
00:38:15
◼
►
- So this is about Intel, setting aside SOCs,
00:38:18
◼
►
where it's a whole bunch of stuff on a big giant,
00:38:20
◼
►
it's a system on a chip.
00:38:21
◼
►
They're giant server chips,
00:38:23
◼
►
like the huge, like, 56-core Xeon things,
00:38:25
◼
►
they're just a single, gigantic chip,
00:38:28
◼
►
and you have to fab that in a single,
00:38:30
◼
►
it's fabbed in a single die.
00:38:31
◼
►
And if some part of that screws up,
00:38:33
◼
►
like, the more area you start covering on the silicon wafer,
00:38:35
◼
►
the more stuff you put there, the more chances
00:38:37
◼
►
there's going to be some error,
00:38:38
◼
►
and you might have to throw out the whole chip.
00:38:40
◼
►
And so this is another advantage to packaging,
00:38:43
◼
►
is like, if you just make it out of smaller parts,
00:38:46
◼
►
A, if it's bad, you're only throwing away
00:38:48
◼
►
like a smaller area of your wafer,
00:38:50
◼
►
you don't have to throw away this huge square,
00:38:52
◼
►
you throw out the little square,
00:38:52
◼
►
and B, your defect density can be lower.
00:38:55
◼
►
He says maximizing defect density,
00:38:56
◼
►
but whatever, he meant minimizing.
00:38:58
◼
►
That you'll get more of those littler things that you fab
00:39:02
◼
►
will come off the line and be completely error-free,
00:39:04
◼
►
whereas trying to just get a single error-free
00:39:06
◼
►
humongous Xeon is difficult.
00:39:09
◼
►
SRAMs in particular, SRAM scaling will become
00:39:11
◼
►
a bigger and bigger issue going forward.
00:39:13
◼
►
So I actually don't get benefit by moving a lot of my cache
00:39:16
◼
►
to the next generation node,
00:39:18
◼
►
like I do for logic, power, and performance.
00:39:20
◼
►
I actually want to have a 3D construct
00:39:21
◼
►
where I have lots of cache and a base die,
00:39:24
◼
►
and put the advanced computing on top of it
00:39:25
◼
►
into a 3D sandwich.
00:39:27
◼
►
And now you get the best of a cache architecture
00:39:29
◼
►
and the best of the next generation of Moore's law.
00:39:31
◼
►
So it actually creates a much more effective
00:39:33
◼
►
architectural model in the future.
00:39:35
◼
►
Additionally, generally, you're struggling
00:39:36
◼
►
with the power, performance, and speed of light
00:39:38
◼
►
between chips.
00:39:40
◼
►
- Yes, this whole technique,
00:39:41
◼
►
this is a particular technology that Intel has advanced with
00:39:43
◼
►
which lets them take power and feed it
00:39:46
◼
►
through the layers of the sandwich
00:39:48
◼
►
in a more efficient way to get to precisely
00:39:50
◼
►
where they want it.
00:39:51
◼
►
I think that's what they're referring to here.
00:39:52
◼
►
The sandwiching isn't just because of that,
00:39:54
◼
►
but Intel has an innovative way to send power
00:39:57
◼
►
up to the bottom of the chip
00:39:58
◼
►
instead of sending it through the top,
00:39:59
◼
►
because when you send it through the top,
00:40:00
◼
►
you gotta weave it around a bunch of obstacles
00:40:02
◼
►
where you send it through the bottom.
00:40:03
◼
►
There's nothing in the way
00:40:04
◼
►
because you make these layered sandwiches or whatever.
00:40:06
◼
►
That's what that's talking about.
00:40:07
◼
►
And SRAM is like, look,
00:40:08
◼
►
the SRAM is what we were talking about before
00:40:10
◼
►
with the GPU RAM that was being shared better
00:40:14
◼
►
with dynamic caching.
00:40:15
◼
►
That's it's faster than the RAM that's out under RAM chips,
00:40:20
◼
►
like your main memory,
00:40:21
◼
►
but it's not the same as registers.
00:40:22
◼
►
It's kind of in between there.
00:40:23
◼
►
It's like very expensive RAM
00:40:25
◼
►
or each a little bit of RAM
00:40:27
◼
►
takes a large number of transistors,
00:40:28
◼
►
but it's much faster than regular RAM and it's in the CPU.
00:40:32
◼
►
And I say, I'm like, you don't get any benefit
00:40:33
◼
►
of doing that on three nanometers.
00:40:34
◼
►
So not only do you not want to waste money doing it
00:40:36
◼
►
because it would be more expensive,
00:40:37
◼
►
you don't get benefit from doing it anyway.
00:40:39
◼
►
So keep that on a different lower process
00:40:41
◼
►
and then sandwich it all together.
00:40:43
◼
►
- Any other questions for me, Ben?
00:40:45
◼
►
- Yeah, I'm Ben again.
00:40:45
◼
►
All right, so how do you solve that with chiplets
00:40:48
◼
►
when they're no longer on the same die?
00:40:50
◼
►
- In the chiplet construct,
00:40:51
◼
►
we're going to be able to put tens of thousands
00:40:53
◼
►
of bond connections between different chiplets
00:40:55
◼
►
inside of an advanced package.
00:40:57
◼
►
So you're going to be able to have very high bandwidth,
00:40:58
◼
►
low latency, low power consumption interfaces
00:41:00
◼
►
between chiplets.
00:41:01
◼
►
It also becomes very economical for design cycles.
00:41:04
◼
►
Hey, I can design a chiplet with this IO
00:41:06
◼
►
and use it for multiple generations.
00:41:08
◼
►
- And you can see how all the stuff that I just described
00:41:11
◼
►
would be appealing to Apple.
00:41:13
◼
►
Apple's already making SOCs,
00:41:15
◼
►
which are essentially single dies system on the chips
00:41:19
◼
►
that have a bunch of stuff in them.
00:41:20
◼
►
And they're getting pretty big.
00:41:21
◼
►
That's part of the reason the ultras have been two maxes
00:41:25
◼
►
weaved together with the Silicon Interposer,
00:41:27
◼
►
rather than just being a single large chip
00:41:29
◼
►
the size of an ultra,
00:41:31
◼
►
because that would be even more expensive to manufacture.
00:41:33
◼
►
It's also probably part of the reason
00:41:35
◼
►
we didn't have the quad, right?
00:41:36
◼
►
So Apple would love the idea
00:41:38
◼
►
that you could take subunits of this,
00:41:41
◼
►
like the thing that does IO or whatever,
00:41:43
◼
►
and reuse that between generations,
00:41:46
◼
►
because between generations, like, yo,
00:41:48
◼
►
it's what over run now,
00:41:49
◼
►
Thunderbolt 3, Thunderbolt 4,
00:41:51
◼
►
that lasts a couple of generations.
00:41:52
◼
►
I think both the M2 and the M3
00:41:54
◼
►
have the same speed Thunderbolt interface.
00:41:56
◼
►
So if that was in a separate chiplet,
00:41:57
◼
►
you can just reuse that one from before on the future chip.
00:42:01
◼
►
And that could still be seven nanometer, for example.
00:42:03
◼
►
I don't know if this is the right part of the chip
00:42:05
◼
►
to be reused, but you can design it once
00:42:07
◼
►
and reuse that little sub chiplet in future generations,
00:42:11
◼
►
as long as you can do an interconnect between all of these
00:42:13
◼
►
that has all the attributes,
00:42:14
◼
►
the subscribe low latency, blah, blah, blah.
00:42:16
◼
►
So far, Apple's packaging innovation has been the Interposer,
00:42:19
◼
►
which is technically impressive,
00:42:20
◼
►
and it makes the ultra possible.
00:42:22
◼
►
But this is more like a more general purpose thing
00:42:24
◼
►
of like lots of different little, you know,
00:42:27
◼
►
a city of chips,
00:42:28
◼
►
lots of different little islands on your chip
00:42:30
◼
►
to even to just make what Apple does currently
00:42:32
◼
►
in a single SoC,
00:42:32
◼
►
and that can make things less expensive
00:42:34
◼
►
and improve your yields as well.
00:42:37
◼
►
- And then you want to tell me
00:42:38
◼
►
about the Universal Chiplet Interconnect Express.
00:42:40
◼
►
Is that a train, Jon?
00:42:42
◼
►
- UCI and then lowercase E.
00:42:44
◼
►
So this is one of these multi company consortiums
00:42:49
◼
►
to do exactly what we were just describing.
00:42:51
◼
►
So this is a press release from March 2nd, 2022.
00:42:54
◼
►
It says Intel,
00:42:55
◼
►
along with advanced semiconductor engineering,
00:42:57
◼
►
AMD, ARM, Google Cloud, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm,
00:43:00
◼
►
Samsung, and TSMC have announced the establishment
00:43:03
◼
►
of an industry consortium
00:43:04
◼
►
to promote an open die-to-die interconnect standard
00:43:07
◼
►
called Universal Chiplet Interconnect Express or UCIE.
00:43:10
◼
►
The chiplet ecosystem created by UCIE is a critical step
00:43:12
◼
►
in the creation of a unified standard
00:43:14
◼
►
for interoperable chiplets,
00:43:16
◼
►
which will ultimately allow for next generation
00:43:17
◼
►
of technological innovations.
00:43:19
◼
►
Apple's not on that list, but TSMC is,
00:43:21
◼
►
and Apple has a good relationship with them.
00:43:24
◼
►
So if we're looking towards a future
00:43:26
◼
►
where it becomes untenable to continue making larger
00:43:30
◼
►
and larger dies, you know,
00:43:32
◼
►
with everything on them and these SOCs,
00:43:34
◼
►
a good industry standard system for making chiplets
00:43:39
◼
►
at whatever the most economical and useful size is
00:43:43
◼
►
and weaving them together to essentially form an SOC
00:43:46
◼
►
out of it seems like a good idea.
00:43:49
◼
►
Doing it all on one die probably still has advantages,
00:43:52
◼
►
but price may not be one of those advantages.
00:43:55
◼
►
And again, Intel is super interested
00:43:57
◼
►
because they essentially can't do that
00:43:59
◼
►
without having TSMC do all of their fabbing for them
00:44:01
◼
►
if they want the top tier technology.
00:44:04
◼
►
Apple doesn't currently have that problem,
00:44:06
◼
►
but the fact that Johnny Cerugi mentioned stuff
00:44:08
◼
►
about packaging and the fact that this whole chiplets thing,
00:44:12
◼
►
like other companies are already doing this,
00:44:13
◼
►
AMD has been big into the chiplets thing for a while,
00:44:15
◼
►
Intel is putting a lot of money and research into this
00:44:18
◼
►
and their chips that they're gonna be coming out with
00:44:21
◼
►
use some of this technology,
00:44:23
◼
►
I think it's unavoidable that Apple will start using it too.
00:44:25
◼
►
Why am I interested in all this?
00:44:27
◼
►
You know why.
00:44:28
◼
►
It's to keep the dream alive of a Mac Pro chip
00:44:31
◼
►
that is not the same as one you can get in an Mac studio.
00:44:34
◼
►
And what's gonna make that possible?
00:44:36
◼
►
Apparently with the approach they use
00:44:37
◼
►
for the past two generations, not economically feasible.
00:44:41
◼
►
If it's ever gonna be economically feasible,
00:44:43
◼
►
we need a change.
00:44:44
◼
►
This change in packaging could bring that about.
00:44:47
◼
►
Stay tuned, I don't know, 20, 27, who knows?
00:44:50
◼
►
- Don't mind.
00:44:52
◼
►
All right, Jon, in keeping with the idea
00:44:56
◼
►
of keeping the dream alive,
00:44:58
◼
►
tell me about error network change.
00:45:00
◼
►
- This is a nightmare, it's not a dream.
00:45:03
◼
►
- Error network change continues.
00:45:05
◼
►
Some more research from the internet about this.
00:45:09
◼
►
So here is a Stack Overflow question.
00:45:12
◼
►
This person asks, whenever my iPhone and Mac OS
00:45:15
◼
►
are on the same WiFi, Chrome and Mac OS
00:45:17
◼
►
often reports the error network changed.
00:45:20
◼
►
I found that whenever my iPhone and Mac OS
00:45:22
◼
►
on the same WiFi, a record will often appear
00:45:24
◼
►
in the routing table in Mac OS
00:45:26
◼
►
and disappear after a few seconds.
00:45:28
◼
►
When this route record appears,
00:45:29
◼
►
my Chrome will most likely have
00:45:31
◼
►
an error network change error.
00:45:32
◼
►
I turned off the iPhone's WiFi,
00:45:34
◼
►
the routing in a record in Mac OS disappeared,
00:45:36
◼
►
and Chrome no longer had the error.
00:45:38
◼
►
So this is, everyone is always looking for like,
00:45:40
◼
►
what causes this?
00:45:41
◼
►
And so they start looking at anything,
00:45:42
◼
►
like what changes my network?
00:45:44
◼
►
What is it about my network that has changed?
00:45:46
◼
►
And they'll spot something,
00:45:47
◼
►
and they'll find a thing to attribute it to,
00:45:49
◼
►
and they'll stop that thing by saying,
00:45:50
◼
►
it looks like it's happening because my phone is here,
00:45:52
◼
►
and if I turn off my WiFi, I fix the problem.
00:45:54
◼
►
Every single one of these that has been reported,
00:45:57
◼
►
I have experimented with,
00:45:58
◼
►
and it doesn't actually eliminate the problem,
00:46:02
◼
►
it just moves it around.
00:46:03
◼
►
Because the problem is, the network changed
00:46:05
◼
►
and Chrome flips out about it.
00:46:07
◼
►
Is the problem that the network is changing?
00:46:08
◼
►
Is the problem that's Chrome's flipping out about it?
00:46:13
◼
►
Either way, if you stop the thing
00:46:15
◼
►
that changes in your network,
00:46:16
◼
►
doesn't mean that something else
00:46:17
◼
►
won't also change your network and cause the error.
00:46:20
◼
►
But I'm glad that somebody found something that helps them.
00:46:22
◼
►
This next one is about tailscale.
00:46:25
◼
►
Gil Penderson says, "The tailscale VPN used to trigger this,
00:46:28
◼
►
but they fixed it with," and there's a link to a patch.
00:46:30
◼
►
So this is tailscale patching their own code
00:46:33
◼
►
to avoid this error,
00:46:33
◼
►
because they were seeing this error happening,
00:46:35
◼
►
and they were saying, hey, this thing that we're doing,
00:46:38
◼
►
Mac OS is flipping out about it.
00:46:40
◼
►
So basically it says iOS/Mac OS,
00:46:44
◼
►
so it's apparently not just a Mac thing,
00:46:46
◼
►
will reconfigure their routing
00:46:47
◼
►
anytime anything minor changes in the netmap.
00:46:50
◼
►
And so they're changing their code to not do that,
00:46:52
◼
►
because they don't wanna anger iOS/Mac OS.
00:46:54
◼
►
This is a change that committed in 2020.
00:46:57
◼
►
So is our iOS and Mac OS changing their routing more?
00:47:02
◼
►
Is there something that was part of the operating system
00:47:05
◼
►
that's causing it?
00:47:07
◼
►
Lots of theories about this.
00:47:08
◼
►
One that's not even in the notes here is about,
00:47:11
◼
►
if you have a dev device,
00:47:12
◼
►
like if you have an iPhone
00:47:13
◼
►
that is configured as a dev device,
00:47:15
◼
►
there's apparently a new way
00:47:16
◼
►
that Macs communicate to the phones
00:47:19
◼
►
for purposes of development,
00:47:21
◼
►
that also uses a network connection
00:47:23
◼
►
that's brought up and torn down,
00:47:24
◼
►
and apparently causes network to be changed
00:47:26
◼
►
as far as Chrome concerned, and it flips out.
00:47:28
◼
►
So anyway, here's an anonymous bit
00:47:29
◼
►
that's getting us closer to the root of the problem.
00:47:32
◼
►
And this is an explanation of it
00:47:34
◼
►
from the perspective of Chrome, Chromium, whatever.
00:47:38
◼
►
Because again, this is not just a Mac or iOS problem.
00:47:40
◼
►
This happens to be on Linux.
00:47:42
◼
►
This is a, part of the problem is clearly
00:47:45
◼
►
with the Chrome/Chromium browser engine,
00:47:50
◼
►
but the operating system has to participate in it as well,
00:47:52
◼
►
because they're the ones that control the network
00:47:53
◼
►
that is changing.
00:47:54
◼
►
Anyway, anonymous writes,
00:47:56
◼
►
"The network layer from Chromium is available
00:47:58
◼
►
as a standalone cross-platform library called Cronet,
00:48:01
◼
►
which is open source
00:48:02
◼
►
and used in other non-Google applications.
00:48:04
◼
►
I work at Google on a major Android app
00:48:05
◼
►
that uses Cronet extensively,
00:48:07
◼
►
so I've got experience with their network changed."
00:48:09
◼
►
This issue appears to be with QUIC, Q-U-I-C,
00:48:12
◼
►
which is the UDP-based web protocol thing.
00:48:15
◼
►
We'll put a link to the Wikipedia page.
00:48:16
◼
►
You can read about it.
00:48:17
◼
►
And/or HTTP/3, which is a new version of HTTP,
00:48:20
◼
►
which is sensitive to changing networks.
00:48:22
◼
►
Whenever the networks on the device change,
00:48:24
◼
►
the connection needs to be reset.
00:48:25
◼
►
This isn't exactly a bug.
00:48:26
◼
►
It's a necessary step.
00:48:28
◼
►
Not doing this would mean connections
00:48:29
◼
►
wouldn't work properly.
00:48:30
◼
►
Unfortunately, this causes error network change
00:48:33
◼
►
when the device's network changed.
00:48:35
◼
►
As previously mentioned,
00:48:36
◼
►
this can be for non-obvious reasons,
00:48:37
◼
►
such as Docker desktop customizing the networks repeatedly,
00:48:40
◼
►
VPN apps misbehaving,
00:48:41
◼
►
cell signal dropping in and out, et cetera.
00:48:44
◼
►
There are ways in which this can be fixed.
00:48:46
◼
►
First, not using HTTP/QUIC is the easiest.
00:48:50
◼
►
Safari and other Apple stuff doesn't use this yet,
00:48:52
◼
►
so it isn't currently experiencing these issues.
00:48:54
◼
►
However, this will likely change
00:48:55
◼
►
as Apple rolls out HTTP/3 support.
00:48:57
◼
►
Apart from this issue, it's a much better technology,
00:48:59
◼
►
particularly for mobile devices.
00:49:00
◼
►
So this is the first offered explanation of,
00:49:03
◼
►
hey, why doesn't Safari have this problem?
00:49:04
◼
►
The theory is, oh, Safari doesn't use QUIC or HTTP/3,
00:49:08
◼
►
and so it's not going to see any of these errors.
00:49:11
◼
►
Difficult to test because,
00:49:13
◼
►
as far as I was able to determine
00:49:15
◼
►
in conversing with this person,
00:49:16
◼
►
there is no way to disable HTTP/3 and QUIC in Chrome
00:49:20
◼
►
to disable it entirely.
00:49:21
◼
►
There's some flags in Chrome flags
00:49:22
◼
►
where you can turn some things off,
00:49:23
◼
►
but I think you can't turn it off entirely.
00:49:25
◼
►
So it's hard to do an apples-to-apples comparison.
00:49:28
◼
►
But you pin your hopes on the smallest thing.
00:49:30
◼
►
If Apple does plan on rolling out HTTP/3 or QUIC,
00:49:33
◼
►
their browser is going to break like Chrome is.
00:49:35
◼
►
And hopefully they'll be like, oh, geez,
00:49:37
◼
►
this browser has become useless
00:49:39
◼
►
because half of my HTTP connections fail.
00:49:41
◼
►
Let's see if we can fix this,
00:49:43
◼
►
as opposed to now where apparently no one is doing anything.
00:49:45
◼
►
Next possible fix.
00:49:46
◼
►
OSes and networking apps will need to be more careful
00:49:49
◼
►
about network changes.
00:49:50
◼
►
Apple will probably fix this in a Sonoma point release.
00:49:52
◼
►
Other platforms I've seen this on are working on fixes.
00:49:56
◼
►
I wish I had this person's optimism.
00:49:59
◼
►
Will it be fixed in a Sonoma point release?
00:50:01
◼
►
Does Apple even know about this?
00:50:03
◼
►
I haven't bothered reporting this
00:50:05
◼
►
because they're just going to say it's a Chrome error,
00:50:07
◼
►
and I'm not sure they're wrong.
00:50:09
◼
►
Like, I honestly don't know how much of the blame
00:50:11
◼
►
to a portion to Chrome versus Mac is.
00:50:13
◼
►
Anecdotal evidence is that this is way worse in Sonoma.
00:50:17
◼
►
There are a bunch of new network-related demons
00:50:19
◼
►
for various things that people have assigned blame to.
00:50:21
◼
►
Oh, it's because of the Utahn thing.
00:50:23
◼
►
It's because of talking to a developer iPhone device.
00:50:26
◼
►
You know, it's because of Docker.
00:50:28
◼
►
It's because of a VPN.
00:50:29
◼
►
It's because whenever your iPhone and your Mac
00:50:33
◼
►
are on the same Wi-Fi network, it happens.
00:50:35
◼
►
Like, I don't know.
00:50:37
◼
►
But I don't know how to communicate this
00:50:41
◼
►
to anybody involved other than to say
00:50:43
◼
►
Chrome no longer works on Mac in a reliable way,
00:50:45
◼
►
like in a fundamental, no longer useful
00:50:48
◼
►
as a browser kind of way because, you know,
00:50:51
◼
►
some large representative requests just fail,
00:50:54
◼
►
and it's not great.
00:50:55
◼
►
Finally, the last thing.
00:50:57
◼
►
There is an experimentation going on in Cronet
00:50:59
◼
►
to improve things by migrating connections
00:51:01
◼
►
across network interfaces.
00:51:03
◼
►
This is the migrate sessions on network change V2 flag
00:51:06
◼
►
or feature or whatever.
00:51:07
◼
►
We'll put a link to the thing in the show notes.
00:51:10
◼
►
This isn't just a bug fix, though.
00:51:11
◼
►
It has trade-offs, so it likely needs to be done
00:51:13
◼
►
in combination with improvements from OSes
00:51:15
◼
►
and networking apps.
00:51:16
◼
►
So the idea behind this thing is,
00:51:18
◼
►
hey, if there's some connection
00:51:20
◼
►
in this Cronet networking library,
00:51:22
◼
►
and the network changes, and we have to, you know,
00:51:25
◼
►
not use that connection anymore because it won't work,
00:51:28
◼
►
whatever was using that connection,
00:51:30
◼
►
why don't we smoothly migrate it over
00:51:32
◼
►
to the new working connection,
00:51:33
◼
►
and then the application that is using Cronet,
00:51:36
◼
►
which would be the Chromium browser engine,
00:51:38
◼
►
doesn't need to worry that that happened.
00:51:40
◼
►
It will just continue to work.
00:51:41
◼
►
That would be great, but it's not just like,
00:51:43
◼
►
it's not just a bug fix
00:51:44
◼
►
because there are performance implications of that.
00:51:46
◼
►
Migrating, it is not free.
00:51:47
◼
►
It takes time, and it's not the same
00:51:50
◼
►
as just not having the network change.
00:51:52
◼
►
So I don't know what the solution is here,
00:51:54
◼
►
but it's extremely frustrating.
00:51:56
◼
►
We did not have an Air Network Change shirt
00:51:58
◼
►
as part of this sale,
00:51:59
◼
►
but I'm seriously thinking about it for future ones.
00:52:01
◼
►
This continues to happen.
00:52:04
◼
►
And then the final bit, this is really the icing on the cake.
00:52:06
◼
►
This is not seemingly related to Air Network Change,
00:52:11
◼
►
but kind of is.
00:52:12
◼
►
This was a toot by someone named Thomas who said,
00:52:15
◼
►
"I just learned what the user interface
00:52:17
◼
►
in the SpaceX capsules run.
00:52:19
◼
►
The capsules that provide life support
00:52:21
◼
►
for people traveling into space
00:52:22
◼
►
have to be absolutely reliable.
00:52:24
◼
►
The user interface that controls an explosion.
00:52:27
◼
►
It runs a home-compiled version of Chromium,
00:52:29
◼
►
and the UI is written in JavaScript."
00:52:31
◼
►
And this person wrote this to say,
00:52:32
◼
►
"Can you believe they're using web technologies
00:52:34
◼
►
and a thing that has to be reliable?"
00:52:36
◼
►
But that's not the thing that sticks out.
00:52:38
◼
►
The thing that sticks out is the word "chromium."
00:52:40
◼
►
Do you think if they have Air Network Changed
00:52:42
◼
►
in a SpaceX rocket, that might be a problem?
00:52:47
◼
►
And who's responsible for fixing that bug?
00:52:49
◼
►
I'm sure it's running Linux or whatever,
00:52:50
◼
►
but, again, people running Chrome on Linux
00:52:52
◼
►
or Chromium-based things on Linux
00:52:54
◼
►
are also experiencing this problem.
00:52:57
◼
►
Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person with this problem,
00:52:59
◼
►
but every time I talk about it on the show,
00:53:01
◼
►
people send me toots on Mastodon.
00:53:03
◼
►
Here I am, I'm getting it, I'm getting it on Air Work Changed.
00:53:05
◼
►
I got people on Linux, people on Macs.
00:53:07
◼
►
So far no one on iOS,
00:53:08
◼
►
'cause maybe those errors are hidden from you
00:53:10
◼
►
on most iOS apps, but...
00:53:12
◼
►
I mean, I still think my Winter Dragon bug
00:53:15
◼
►
is more important 'cause I could just use Safari.
00:53:17
◼
►
But for the people in the SpaceX capsules
00:53:21
◼
►
that have a UI that's running Chromium,
00:53:22
◼
►
maybe talk to your bosses about this.
00:53:27
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(upbeat music)
00:55:26
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As we record this, it is Monday, what's it say,
00:55:28
◼
►
the 20th, is that right?
00:55:30
◼
►
Yes, Monday the 20th.
00:55:31
◼
►
In the last three days, there have been approximately,
00:55:35
◼
►
carry the seven, 7,304 different CEOs for OpenAI.
00:55:40
◼
►
- Somehow still only one board.
00:55:42
◼
►
- Right, yeah.
00:55:43
◼
►
- Well, we've been recording for a while, so.
00:55:45
◼
►
- Yeah, right.
00:55:46
◼
►
- That's also fair.
00:55:47
◼
►
So I don't really have too much to say about this,
00:55:50
◼
►
but I guess--
00:55:51
◼
►
- Just read the headlines in the notes.
00:55:52
◼
►
- All right, so these are the headlines,
00:55:55
◼
►
and we'll link these in the show notes.
00:55:56
◼
►
- I think this is like 48 hours span, 24, 48.
00:56:00
◼
►
- Yeah, it's been almost no time.
00:56:02
◼
►
- So these are the headlines as per the Verge.
00:56:05
◼
►
Sam Altman fired a CEO of OpenAI.
00:56:08
◼
►
That was on the 17th.
00:56:10
◼
►
- And by the way, out of nowhere.
00:56:12
◼
►
- Yeah, so let's get through the headlines,
00:56:14
◼
►
and then let, yeah, I think it's worth unpacking all this.
00:56:17
◼
►
Then next, Twitch co-founder, Emmet Sheer,
00:56:19
◼
►
is the new CEO of OpenAI, that was apparently today.
00:56:23
◼
►
Microsoft hires former OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman, also today.
00:56:27
◼
►
Hundreds of OpenAI employees starting to resign
00:56:30
◼
►
and join Microsoft today.
00:56:32
◼
►
Is Sam Altman joining Microsoft?
00:56:34
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Satya Dadella doesn't seem to know.
00:56:37
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- I think there's hours between those things.
00:56:40
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- How can you have, like, yes, it's a comedy of errors,
00:56:44
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but then every time there's a headline,
00:56:46
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it's like, this is a thing that happened,
00:56:47
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and it's like, but has it?
00:56:49
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- Yeah, exactly.
00:56:51
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- I skip the ones where it's like, oh, he was fired,
00:56:54
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but there are negotiations for him to come back.
00:56:55
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But no, he's not coming back.
00:56:56
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But yes, he is coming back,
00:56:57
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but they're talking about coming back.
00:56:58
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But now he's at Microsoft,
00:56:59
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but has he been hired by Microsoft?
00:57:01
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And this is not just like,
00:57:01
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oh, we're wondering what's going on.
00:57:04
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That's why the headline says,
00:57:05
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is Sam Altman joining Microsoft?
00:57:07
◼
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Satya Dadella, who by the way is the CEO of Microsoft,
00:57:09
◼
►
doesn't seem to know.
00:57:10
◼
►
Satya Dadella announced,
00:57:12
◼
►
hey, Sam Altman's coming to Microsoft.
00:57:14
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But then when asked about it, like, hours later,
00:57:16
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it was like, well, not really sure.
00:57:19
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I don't check back in a few hours.
00:57:23
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- Yeah, so let me try to give
00:57:24
◼
►
the quick executive summary of this.
00:57:26
◼
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Now, I'm surely gonna get a little bit wrong,
00:57:28
◼
►
but the general gist of it is,
00:57:30
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I think it was late Friday, Eastern time,
00:57:33
◼
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there was a blog post from the OpenAI board, basically,
00:57:37
◼
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that said that Sam Altman, who was the former CEO,
00:57:42
◼
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maybe by the time you're listening to this,
00:57:44
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might be the CEO again, who knows?
00:57:45
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But former CEO had basically not,
00:57:48
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what was the phrase they used?
00:57:50
◼
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Not been, forthcoming wasn't the word they used,
00:57:54
◼
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but it was something along those lines.
00:57:55
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- It was pretty severe.
00:57:58
◼
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- It was vague, but like, as, you know,
00:58:00
◼
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normally when a CEO is fired,
00:58:04
◼
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this is the privilege of being in the executive ranks.
00:58:06
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When a regular person is fired, you just get fired.
00:58:09
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But if you're a CEO, no matter how terrible
00:58:12
◼
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whatever you did was, no matter how badly you screwed up,
00:58:16
◼
►
you're always like, you know, moving on to spend more time
00:58:19
◼
►
with your family or want to pursue other interests,
00:58:23
◼
►
or like they have some euphemism about how you're,
00:58:25
◼
►
it's not like we're firing him.
00:58:26
◼
►
It's a mutual decision we've all come to,
00:58:28
◼
►
and he's decided to leave, and he's, you know,
00:58:31
◼
►
pursuing his passions in this other realm,
00:58:33
◼
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and we thank him for all his blah, blah, blah,
00:58:34
◼
►
and this wasn't like that.
00:58:36
◼
►
This was as close as you're ever gonna get
00:58:38
◼
►
to saying we fired him 'cause we don't like him.
00:58:40
◼
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- Yeah, that's how I remember being with Forrestal,
00:58:42
◼
►
was basically like, it was clear that he got fired,
00:58:45
◼
►
but everyone put on the happy face.
00:58:47
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We would like Scott to spend more time with his family.
00:58:51
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Yes, I would like to spend more time with my family.
00:58:55
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- And usually, and usually in those type of statements,
00:58:57
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there's something from the person who was fired,
00:58:59
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like quote, you know, whatever, quotes from them, right?
00:59:02
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►
They'll say like, I'm happy that I spent all my time
00:59:04
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►
with this company, I'm glad to be moving on,
00:59:06
◼
►
and blah, blah, blah, like it's a participatory process.
00:59:08
◼
►
But what happened with Sam Altman,
00:59:11
◼
►
the story I heard on Pocket Osean 2 is that
00:59:13
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he was on stage doing something,
00:59:15
◼
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like in his official capacity as CEO,
00:59:17
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and he said, okay, well, you know, thanks everybody,
00:59:20
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I have to go, I have a meeting.
00:59:21
◼
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In that meeting, he got on, he got on a call,
00:59:25
◼
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this is, I was listening to the Verges podcast about this,
00:59:27
◼
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he got onto the call using Google Meet,
00:59:28
◼
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and one of the people on the show said,
00:59:30
◼
►
even for $10 billion, no one will use Teams.
00:59:32
◼
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Microsoft invested $10 billion or whatever in OpenAI.
00:59:37
◼
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So anyway, he goes to his meeting, he sits down,
00:59:39
◼
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and it's, you know, an online meeting, right?
00:59:42
◼
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And all they did in the online meeting was read him
00:59:45
◼
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the blog post he just referred to, okay,
00:59:46
◼
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so they just put in, that's what you do in these meetings,
00:59:48
◼
►
you have a script, you stick to it so you don't get sued,
00:59:50
◼
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you just read the words, so if you're wondering,
00:59:52
◼
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like, oh, they must have had an extensive meeting
00:59:53
◼
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in which they explained to him why he was fired,
00:59:56
◼
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when we say this came out of nowhere,
00:59:57
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didn't come out of nowhere to us on the outside,
00:59:59
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'cause what do we know?
01:00:00
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Came out of nowhere to Sam Altman,
01:00:02
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who just got done doing a CEO thing and said,
01:00:04
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►
oh, I gotta go to a meeting,
01:00:05
◼
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and they just read him a thing and said, yeah, you're fired.
01:00:07
◼
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- And by the way, the thing he was doing,
01:00:09
◼
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like having their whole developer conference,
01:00:11
◼
►
was widely lauded by the industry as like an amazing thing,
01:00:15
◼
►
everyone thought he did an amazing job,
01:00:16
◼
►
this is a great path beyond--
01:00:18
◼
►
- Everyone's excited about open AI.
01:00:19
◼
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- Yeah, everyone's super excited about open AI and him,
01:00:22
◼
►
like it was, that's why when this news dropped
01:00:25
◼
►
that the board fired him,
01:00:26
◼
►
everyone in the entire tech business was like, what?
01:00:30
◼
►
Are you serious, is this a joke, like what happened?
01:00:32
◼
►
- Yeah, so here's from the blog post
01:00:34
◼
►
I was able to dig it up while you guys were talking,
01:00:36
◼
►
this is the blog post from the open AI board,
01:00:38
◼
►
Mr. Altman's departure follows a deliberate review process
01:00:41
◼
►
by the board which concluded that he was not consistently
01:00:44
◼
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candid in his communications with the board,
01:00:46
◼
►
hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities.
01:00:48
◼
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The board no longer has confidence in his ability
01:00:50
◼
►
to continue leading open AI.
01:00:52
◼
►
- Which by the way, like that's a really serious accusation,
01:00:56
◼
►
like that is like, potentially misleading the board
01:01:00
◼
►
is in many cases a crime,
01:01:02
◼
►
like that is a really serious accusation,
01:01:05
◼
►
that's why like this isn't just,
01:01:07
◼
►
oh, we had creative differences,
01:01:09
◼
►
we don't like him anymore,
01:01:10
◼
►
that's a very serious thing to throw around,
01:01:13
◼
►
what they threw around.
01:01:14
◼
►
- And by the way, as far as I understand it,
01:01:17
◼
►
the board doesn't have to have a reason,
01:01:19
◼
►
like they have complete control,
01:01:21
◼
►
there's no like power struggle or whatever,
01:01:23
◼
►
the structure of this company is such that the board
01:01:26
◼
►
can decide, oh, we don't want you to be CEO,
01:01:28
◼
►
I think for pretty much any reason,
01:01:30
◼
►
like he needs to do anything wrong,
01:01:31
◼
►
like it just happens all the time,
01:01:32
◼
►
the board's like, we want a different CEO,
01:01:34
◼
►
we wanna go in a different direction,
01:01:35
◼
►
that happens all the time,
01:01:36
◼
►
they don't need to explain,
01:01:38
◼
►
which is why you can do the,
01:01:39
◼
►
oh, they're going to spend more time with the family
01:01:41
◼
►
or whatever, whatever the real reason is,
01:01:43
◼
►
it's not like they need to make something up,
01:01:44
◼
►
like we can't fire him unless we say that he lied to us,
01:01:47
◼
►
they could have just said later,
01:01:49
◼
►
but they threw that in there to say,
01:01:51
◼
►
oh, and we have reasons,
01:01:52
◼
►
we think he has not been quote unquote,
01:01:54
◼
►
consistently candid,
01:01:55
◼
►
like they didn't have to put that in there for any reason,
01:01:58
◼
►
other than to just, I mean, I don't know,
01:02:01
◼
►
maybe this will give us cover because it's vague enough,
01:02:03
◼
►
people can imagine some terrible thing happened,
01:02:05
◼
►
but bottom line is, apparently a majority,
01:02:09
◼
►
we don't even know how much,
01:02:10
◼
►
because it's not a public company,
01:02:12
◼
►
so it's not like they have public records to say,
01:02:13
◼
►
was this a unanimous vote,
01:02:14
◼
►
did everybody vote to kick him out or whatever,
01:02:16
◼
►
but a majority of the people on the board
01:02:19
◼
►
decided they don't want him to be CEO anymore,
01:02:22
◼
►
and they made this decision without consulting Sam Altman
01:02:25
◼
►
at all, I mean, maybe they've had past conversations
01:02:27
◼
►
about it, maybe he should have known it's coming
01:02:29
◼
►
because they said in their last meeting,
01:02:30
◼
►
if you do really well in that dev conference, you're fired,
01:02:33
◼
►
I don't know what they might have said to him.
01:02:36
◼
►
- So the impression I get, and I don't have a lot of facts,
01:02:41
◼
►
nobody has facts here at the moment,
01:02:43
◼
►
but the impression I got based on the coverage that I've read
01:02:47
◼
►
is that there were two different factions, or tribes,
01:02:49
◼
►
I think Sam had called them at one point or another,
01:02:51
◼
►
two different tribes within OpenAI.
01:02:54
◼
►
OpenAI was originally founded in 2014, 2015 thereabouts
01:02:58
◼
►
as a nonprofit, and their theory was,
01:03:01
◼
►
we wanna make basically artificial general intelligence,
01:03:04
◼
►
we wanna make AI, but we understand that with this great
01:03:09
◼
►
power comes great responsibility, and we wanna do this
01:03:12
◼
►
to improve the lives of people everywhere,
01:03:17
◼
►
but we're gonna try to do it very methodically,
01:03:19
◼
►
very deliberately, very safely.
01:03:21
◼
►
And that was how the company was founded,
01:03:24
◼
►
and it's not even really a company, I guess, it's--
01:03:28
◼
►
- It's a nonprofit. - It's a nonprofit, right?
01:03:30
◼
►
So that's how it was founded.
01:03:32
◼
►
Well, at some point, you know, Altman swoops in,
01:03:34
◼
►
I don't recall exactly when it was in the timeline,
01:03:36
◼
►
but it's clear that Sam Altman is very Silicon Valley VC,
01:03:41
◼
►
which I personally find to be a very ugly stereotype,
01:03:46
◼
►
like, I just don't care for that whole like,
01:03:48
◼
►
grow, grow, grow, take over the world mindset.
01:03:50
◼
►
- And he is the embodiment of that stereotype,
01:03:52
◼
►
he used to be with Y Combinator, which is also kind of
01:03:54
◼
►
a poster child for that type of VC.
01:03:56
◼
►
- Yeah, and he's not the guy who had the day-of-phone,
01:03:58
◼
►
night-of-phone, he's the guy who wore the multiple
01:04:00
◼
►
polo shirts at the same time.
01:04:01
◼
►
- Yeah, sorry to keep track of all that, Sam, yeah.
01:04:04
◼
►
- Exactly, now, and I'm trying to make plain,
01:04:07
◼
►
to quote Merlin, my priors on this,
01:04:09
◼
►
like, I find that whole Silicon Valley mindset
01:04:11
◼
►
to be very off-putting, you know, grow,
01:04:14
◼
►
grow no matter what, we don't care who we run over
01:04:17
◼
►
in the process, grow, grow, grow, you know,
01:04:19
◼
►
let's make money, make money, and that's all that matters
01:04:22
◼
►
is making money, nothing else matters,
01:04:23
◼
►
grow and make money, grow and make money,
01:04:25
◼
►
or sometimes you don't even have to make money,
01:04:26
◼
►
you just grow.
01:04:27
◼
►
Well, so anyway, so consider that when I give,
01:04:29
◼
►
one of my, you know, lip turns up,
01:04:31
◼
►
as I tell you this story, but nevertheless,
01:04:34
◼
►
so Sam comes in and he's grow, grow, grow,
01:04:36
◼
►
money, money, money, and everything,
01:04:38
◼
►
I guess everyone was kind of coexisting okay,
01:04:41
◼
►
and even though they disagreed internally,
01:04:44
◼
►
everything was mostly all right.
01:04:45
◼
►
Well, then they released ChatGPT, what, about a year ago,
01:04:48
◼
►
and it makes a tremendous splash.
01:04:53
◼
►
I think a lot of people are saying it's the quickest
01:04:55
◼
►
adopted consumer product ever, because, you know,
01:04:58
◼
►
they had something like 100 million signups
01:05:00
◼
►
in the span of like four minutes,
01:05:01
◼
►
not literally, but you know what I mean,
01:05:02
◼
►
and so now money is becoming a thing, like for real,
01:05:07
◼
►
and suddenly we have to pay the piper on this division
01:05:11
◼
►
between money, money, money, and let's do this
01:05:14
◼
►
for the good of all people, and their chief scientist,
01:05:17
◼
►
Ilya, something or other, I don't have the name
01:05:19
◼
►
in front of me, I guess was more on the let's play it safe,
01:05:23
◼
►
let's be deliberate, let's do this for the good
01:05:25
◼
►
of humanity, and Sam was very much money, money, money,
01:05:28
◼
►
and at some point, it appears something gave,
01:05:33
◼
►
and the rumblings that I heard, not from like sources
01:05:37
◼
►
or anything, just based on the reporting I read,
01:05:41
◼
►
was that Ilya had convinced the board,
01:05:43
◼
►
of which I think he is a part of the board,
01:05:45
◼
►
let's get rid of Sam, and then all hell broke loose,
01:05:49
◼
►
and now, as we record on Monday night,
01:05:51
◼
►
we don't really know what the latest and greatest is,
01:05:54
◼
►
but I understand, you know, both sides of this.
01:05:58
◼
►
Like on the one side, if the board really did establish,
01:06:00
◼
►
or if OpenAI really was established as a non-profit,
01:06:02
◼
►
which I think is factual, I don't think that's up for grabs,
01:06:05
◼
►
it is within reason for them to say, well, hold on,
01:06:08
◼
►
suddenly we've taken a turn and pivoted
01:06:10
◼
►
to money, money, money, we don't like that,
01:06:13
◼
►
and Sam seems to, by most metrics,
01:06:16
◼
►
have pivoted them in that direction,
01:06:18
◼
►
so if we don't like this pivot to money, money, money,
01:06:20
◼
►
then we probably don't like Sam anymore,
01:06:22
◼
►
so on the surface, I don't have a problem with that,
01:06:24
◼
►
and again, my priors tell me, yeah, screw that Silicon Valley
01:06:27
◼
►
nut job, you know, let's do this for the good of people
01:06:30
◼
►
rather than the good of the almighty dollar.
01:06:32
◼
►
- Well, wait till you hear about the other side of that,
01:06:34
◼
►
because I think that they're both nut jobs.
01:06:36
◼
►
- Well, that's fair too, that's fair too.
01:06:38
◼
►
But I'm just trying to make plain, you know,
01:06:40
◼
►
this is my biases coming to light.
01:06:43
◼
►
That being said, unquestionably,
01:06:46
◼
►
ChatGPT and the work of OpenAI and Dolly,
01:06:49
◼
►
and you know, all this AI stuff,
01:06:51
◼
►
whether or not you think it's cool,
01:06:52
◼
►
whether or not you think it's good,
01:06:55
◼
►
I think unquestionably, it's important,
01:06:58
◼
►
and it's been making a big damn splash,
01:07:01
◼
►
and I think that there's a lot of interesting things here,
01:07:04
◼
►
and unlike blockchain, I think there's a lot
01:07:07
◼
►
of fascinating threads that we can pull,
01:07:09
◼
►
and I think that there's a lot there,
01:07:12
◼
►
and because of that, I also have sympathy
01:07:16
◼
►
for the let's grow this product
01:07:18
◼
►
and see what the world can do with it,
01:07:20
◼
►
and let's just, let's not slow down,
01:07:22
◼
►
let's not, you know, be deliberate about it, screw it,
01:07:25
◼
►
let's just figure it out as we go,
01:07:26
◼
►
which is when Silicon Valley is at its best.
01:07:29
◼
►
So I have very mixed feelings about this,
01:07:32
◼
►
and I mean, as someone who likes drama more than I should,
01:07:36
◼
►
because I'm a grown-ass man,
01:07:38
◼
►
I really shouldn't enjoy drama this much,
01:07:41
◼
►
but oh, this is delicious drama,
01:07:42
◼
►
and I am here for the drama of it,
01:07:44
◼
►
but I honestly don't know who's right, who's wrong,
01:07:47
◼
►
I'm not sure any of us do.
01:07:49
◼
►
I don't know what to make of this,
01:07:50
◼
►
but it is a mess, and it's been a mess
01:07:53
◼
►
every other hour since late Friday evening.
01:07:56
◼
►
- Yeah, by the time you hear this episode,
01:07:58
◼
►
who knows what will have happened.
01:07:59
◼
►
I think this is actually, I mean,
01:08:01
◼
►
a lot of, this is the most,
01:08:03
◼
►
the most Silicon Valley thing about this
01:08:05
◼
►
is that a lot of the companies that, you know,
01:08:08
◼
►
from my youth that sort of came out of Silicon Valley,
01:08:11
◼
►
they were at the forefront of some technology that,
01:08:14
◼
►
they were at the right place at the right time, right?
01:08:16
◼
►
They decided to make personal computers,
01:08:18
◼
►
and personal computers were just becoming possible, right?
01:08:20
◼
►
You know, you had your Apples, you had your Intel,
01:08:22
◼
►
all right, you know, microchips, memory, you know,
01:08:24
◼
►
CPUs, x86, Microsoft with the software, like,
01:08:27
◼
►
they're riding a wave of something.
01:08:31
◼
►
And those particular companies, especially, you know,
01:08:33
◼
►
we know a lot of the names of the founders,
01:08:35
◼
►
Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, a lot of them were younger people,
01:08:38
◼
►
and pretty much none of them went into it thinking,
01:08:43
◼
►
I'm going to found what's going to become
01:08:46
◼
►
what we know today as tech giants,
01:08:48
◼
►
'cause that's not what, you know,
01:08:49
◼
►
who's the, if you tried to tell a young Steve Jobs
01:08:53
◼
►
and Steve Wozniak what Apple will look like today,
01:08:55
◼
►
they'd be like, yeah, right.
01:08:56
◼
►
No one thinks that's going to happen.
01:08:57
◼
►
So what happens with these companies
01:08:58
◼
►
that are incredibly successful is,
01:09:00
◼
►
they're made up of people, the founders,
01:09:02
◼
►
but also usually they bring in other people
01:09:04
◼
►
to help them run the company,
01:09:06
◼
►
and especially for companies
01:09:07
◼
►
that experience explosive growth,
01:09:10
◼
►
the people who are responsible for running that company,
01:09:12
◼
►
they're just people.
01:09:13
◼
►
Sometimes they're people who've never done
01:09:15
◼
►
anything like this before.
01:09:17
◼
►
And so if you're wondering how can this company
01:09:19
◼
►
that's been so financially successful
01:09:21
◼
►
and apparently has such amazing technology
01:09:24
◼
►
not have their governance straightened out
01:09:26
◼
►
and basically, you know, conduct their business
01:09:30
◼
►
in this ridiculous way with this whipsawing of the CEO
01:09:34
◼
►
being fired and asking him to come back
01:09:36
◼
►
and regretting telling him to leave and all that stuff,
01:09:38
◼
►
it's because they're a young tech company
01:09:41
◼
►
riding the wave of new technology
01:09:43
◼
►
run by a pinch of people who are bad at doing this.
01:09:46
◼
►
And that's, I mean, look, Steve Jobs was fired from Apple
01:09:51
◼
►
by a bunch of people that were brought on to run the company.
01:09:53
◼
►
That was probably the wrong decision
01:09:55
◼
►
for them to do at that time.
01:09:56
◼
►
If they had, you know, nurtured his talent,
01:09:59
◼
►
perhaps they would have had a more successful 90s,
01:10:01
◼
►
but you can also understand why they fired him
01:10:03
◼
►
because, you know, read the history.
01:10:05
◼
►
Like, a lot of these companies in their early days
01:10:08
◼
►
at least run up to the edge of being, you know,
01:10:12
◼
►
doing something terrible but being run in a way
01:10:15
◼
►
that is not, I'm not gonna say not sane,
01:10:18
◼
►
but that is not the way you expect
01:10:21
◼
►
a very wealthy company to be run.
01:10:23
◼
►
Even with Google, they have the two founders
01:10:25
◼
►
and we have to bring in the adults to help run things.
01:10:28
◼
►
You know, it can go badly in so many different ways.
01:10:32
◼
►
It's very rare that you get a company
01:10:35
◼
►
that manages to get through this sort of awkward adolescence
01:10:38
◼
►
and sustain its success into something that continues
01:10:42
◼
►
and becomes like a company that, you know,
01:10:45
◼
►
that is more reliable and steady
01:10:47
◼
►
and does not have weird boardroom drama like this.
01:10:49
◼
►
So I'm not saying that this is unique to OpenAI at all.
01:10:52
◼
►
In fact, like I said, I think this is the most
01:10:54
◼
►
Silicon Valley thing that they've done.
01:10:56
◼
►
That said, the people in these two camps here,
01:10:59
◼
►
the Sam Altman and the OpenAI people
01:11:03
◼
►
are a little bit weird.
01:11:04
◼
►
They're, both sides are a little bit weird.
01:11:07
◼
►
So we didn't talk about the Microsoft stuff,
01:11:08
◼
►
but like, OpenAI is this nonprofit.
01:11:11
◼
►
Microsoft wanted to do a thing with them.
01:11:13
◼
►
So here's the thing with OpenAI.
01:11:14
◼
►
Their goal is to make artificial general intelligence,
01:11:16
◼
►
like 9,000 or whatever, that doesn't kill you.
01:11:19
◼
►
- Big asterisk there.
01:11:21
◼
►
- Yeah, yeah.
01:11:21
◼
►
They haven't done that, to be clear.
01:11:23
◼
►
That's like their aspirational goal.
01:11:24
◼
►
It's like their mission statement.
01:11:26
◼
►
But what they did do was make ChatGPT.
01:11:28
◼
►
And it turns out that ChatGPT is a useful thing
01:11:30
◼
►
that people can do stuff with.
01:11:32
◼
►
And everyone's interested in it.
01:11:35
◼
►
And Microsoft was interested in it and they said,
01:11:37
◼
►
"Hey, we would like to do stuff with your technology too.
01:11:40
◼
►
The problem OpenAI has is they want to make artificial
01:11:43
◼
►
general intelligence, but turns out doing anything,
01:11:46
◼
►
even approaching that, costs tons and tons of money."
01:11:49
◼
►
And so OpenAI's idea was like,
01:11:51
◼
►
"We'll just, we'll raise money somehow.
01:11:54
◼
►
And people will give us money because they know
01:11:55
◼
►
we're doing the good work to make how 9,000 not kill us."
01:11:58
◼
►
And they, the amount of money they were able to raise
01:12:00
◼
►
was a fraction of the amount that they would need.
01:12:02
◼
►
Microsoft came and said,
01:12:04
◼
►
"We kind of like that things you're doing over there.
01:12:06
◼
►
How about we let you use our massive computing resources
01:12:09
◼
►
and our data centers to the tune of billions of dollars
01:12:12
◼
►
worth of free credits, like little Chuck E. Cheese tokens?
01:12:15
◼
►
Now you can run your stuff in Azure because OpenAI,
01:12:17
◼
►
OpenAI can't do anything without large amounts of computers,
01:12:22
◼
►
which takes large amounts of money.
01:12:23
◼
►
And they're a nonprofit.
01:12:24
◼
►
And their idea was like, "We'll raise that money.
01:12:26
◼
►
People will give us money to pursue this."
01:12:28
◼
►
They just did not get as much money as they would need.
01:12:30
◼
►
But ChatGPT, Microsoft's like, "Hmm, kind of like that."
01:12:33
◼
►
So they did this deal where Microsoft is like
01:12:37
◼
►
giving them $10 billion,
01:12:39
◼
►
most of which is in the form of credits
01:12:40
◼
►
to run stuff in their Azure, cloud computing stuff.
01:12:44
◼
►
But how can they do that?
01:12:46
◼
►
Well, if you look at the org chart,
01:12:47
◼
►
it's like there's a nonprofit
01:12:48
◼
►
and the nonprofit controls this other for-profit thing
01:12:52
◼
►
that gets money from Microsoft.
01:12:54
◼
►
But the for-profit part, it's not,
01:12:58
◼
►
I think it's like what, profit capped or something like that.
01:13:00
◼
►
Anyway, it's entirely controlled by the nonprofit,
01:13:03
◼
►
but still Microsoft has this financial interest.
01:13:05
◼
►
And by the way, as part of this deal,
01:13:06
◼
►
Microsoft gets all the rights to the open AI IP,
01:13:10
◼
►
like their intellectual property,
01:13:12
◼
►
I don't know what their intellectual property is,
01:13:13
◼
►
but presumably whatever it is they use to make ChatGPT,
01:13:15
◼
►
Microsoft now has the rights to that.
01:13:17
◼
►
I think forever, as part of this $10 billion deal.
01:13:21
◼
►
The only thing Microsoft doesn't have the rights to,
01:13:22
◼
►
and this is another one of those great deals,
01:13:23
◼
►
kind of like Microsoft doing the Internet Explorer thing
01:13:27
◼
►
and saying, "Oh, don't worry.
01:13:28
◼
►
We'll give you X percent
01:13:30
◼
►
of all of our Internet Explorer sales,"
01:13:31
◼
►
and then giving Internet Explorer away for free
01:13:34
◼
►
to everybody, and so that person got nothing.
01:13:35
◼
►
Anyway, the company that got nothing from that.
01:13:38
◼
►
Open AI is like, "Okay, we'll do this $10 billion deal.
01:13:41
◼
►
We'll get access to your computing resources,
01:13:42
◼
►
which we kind of need to literally do anything
01:13:44
◼
►
'cause we don't have enough money to do this AI stuff.
01:13:47
◼
►
We don't have enough money to pay for the computers to do it
01:13:49
◼
►
but what we won't give you,
01:13:50
◼
►
and we'll license you our current technology,
01:13:53
◼
►
but what we won't give you is anything having to do
01:13:56
◼
►
with artificial general intelligence.
01:13:57
◼
►
So if we invent HAL 9000, Microsoft, you don't get it."
01:14:00
◼
►
And Microsoft's like, "Okay, I guess."
01:14:03
◼
►
And Microsoft's actually thinking,
01:14:04
◼
►
"They're never gonna do that.
01:14:05
◼
►
It doesn't matter."
01:14:07
◼
►
So they retained the right to the fantasy thing
01:14:10
◼
►
that they wanna make,
01:14:11
◼
►
but gave Microsoft the rights to all the other stuff.
01:14:13
◼
►
And so Microsoft's doing all this stuff
01:14:14
◼
►
with their co-pilot, ChatGPT, all that stuff.
01:14:19
◼
►
ChatGPT, the fact that it does useful things,
01:14:22
◼
►
that is a product that can make money.
01:14:24
◼
►
Microsoft can incorporate that technology
01:14:26
◼
►
into its own products, Microsoft Office, GitHub, everything,
01:14:29
◼
►
and use that to make money.
01:14:31
◼
►
That's what everyone's doing.
01:14:33
◼
►
Meanwhile, the nonprofits over there are going,
01:14:35
◼
►
"What are they doing making products and making money for?
01:14:38
◼
►
Don't they understand we're trying to make HAL 9000,
01:14:40
◼
►
and we're trying to make sure HAL 9000 doesn't kill us?"
01:14:42
◼
►
And so there's already a disconnect.
01:14:44
◼
►
And so on the one side of it is like,
01:14:46
◼
►
you have a technology that people will pay money to use.
01:14:49
◼
►
I forget what their numbers are,
01:14:50
◼
►
but like if they got 100 million users,
01:14:52
◼
►
they're making some huge amount of revenue to it
01:14:54
◼
►
because they charge for access to this stuff.
01:14:56
◼
►
And of course, to the extent that Microsoft incorporates
01:14:59
◼
►
any of this technology into their products
01:15:00
◼
►
that helps them sell more of their products,
01:15:01
◼
►
which of course they make money on.
01:15:03
◼
►
So it's a product business.
01:15:05
◼
►
Hey, we have a thing we came up with,
01:15:07
◼
►
whether it was Google search or whatever,
01:15:10
◼
►
and we can use it to make money.
01:15:11
◼
►
And that's what Sam Altman's out there doing,
01:15:13
◼
►
using a product to make money.
01:15:14
◼
►
And then the open AI people who are like,
01:15:16
◼
►
"AI is gonna kill us.
01:15:17
◼
►
We need to create it in a...
01:15:18
◼
►
First, we need to create it,
01:15:19
◼
►
but we need to create it the right way
01:15:20
◼
►
so it doesn't kill us."
01:15:21
◼
►
And everyone else is like,
01:15:22
◼
►
"Yeah, but you haven't created it,
01:15:23
◼
►
but we've got this thing over here called ChappTPT
01:15:25
◼
►
that people wanna pay for it."
01:15:26
◼
►
It's not AI, even though everyone calls it that,
01:15:29
◼
►
but it is a product that people wanna use.
01:15:31
◼
►
So can we have a developer day and make an API
01:15:34
◼
►
and charge people for API access
01:15:35
◼
►
and do deals with Microsoft?
01:15:36
◼
►
And it's like, "Okay, I guess."
01:15:38
◼
►
But eventually like, "No, we're making L9000.
01:15:42
◼
►
We don't like that other stuff. Stop it."
01:15:44
◼
►
And so now you have this disconnect.
01:15:46
◼
►
And if you think about what open AI is,
01:15:49
◼
►
it's this mission statement.
01:15:51
◼
►
It's a bunch of employees
01:15:52
◼
►
that implement this mission statement.
01:15:55
◼
►
And then it is the output,
01:15:56
◼
►
the knowledge and the output of those employees.
01:15:58
◼
►
And so Sam Altman apparently was popular within the company.
01:16:02
◼
►
So when he left and went to Microsoft, or did he,
01:16:06
◼
►
of the 700 or so employees at open AI,
01:16:10
◼
►
about 500 signed a letter that said,
01:16:12
◼
►
"Hey, if you don't bring him back
01:16:14
◼
►
or if you don't all quit or whatever,
01:16:15
◼
►
we're all gonna go to Microsoft."
01:16:17
◼
►
Because Microsoft said,
01:16:17
◼
►
"We have an open, a standing offer
01:16:19
◼
►
to go work for them instead."
01:16:20
◼
►
So if Microsoft gets Sam Altman
01:16:24
◼
►
and 500 of the 700 employees,
01:16:27
◼
►
what is the nonprofit left with?
01:16:28
◼
►
Microsoft already has the rights
01:16:29
◼
►
to all the IP of everything they actually made,
01:16:32
◼
►
'cause they didn't make L9000.
01:16:34
◼
►
So they got the rights to that.
01:16:35
◼
►
And if all their employees also go over there
01:16:38
◼
►
and they have the former CEO,
01:16:39
◼
►
then open AI has a mission statement
01:16:42
◼
►
and 200 loyal employees left.
01:16:45
◼
►
And really, I guess those people can regroup
01:16:48
◼
►
and use their $10 billion of Azure bucks
01:16:51
◼
►
to figure out how to make L9000 any day now.
01:16:54
◼
►
Meanwhile, Sam Altman and Microsoft are over there
01:16:58
◼
►
continuing to sell access to chat GPT
01:17:00
◼
►
to auto-complete stuff when you type reminders in
01:17:03
◼
►
or whatever the hell they're doing to make money.
01:17:04
◼
►
The reason I think both camps are a little bit weird
01:17:07
◼
►
is 'cause Sam Altman's in the, as Casey alluded to before,
01:17:10
◼
►
the grow, grow, grow, boil the ocean,
01:17:12
◼
►
kill all the poor people so we can make another buck,
01:17:15
◼
►
because in the end, what really matters
01:17:17
◼
►
are the people who are gonna live a trillion years from now.
01:17:20
◼
►
Lots of interesting philosophical exclusives
01:17:22
◼
►
to be a jerk today,
01:17:23
◼
►
but really it's for the future anyway.
01:17:25
◼
►
Money, money, money.
01:17:26
◼
►
And then the flip side, the people will think,
01:17:28
◼
►
AI is gonna come and kill us all,
01:17:29
◼
►
and they need to be really careful about how they create it,
01:17:31
◼
►
and you're like, what's gonna kill us all?
01:17:33
◼
►
They're like, oh, the thing no one's been able to invent yet
01:17:35
◼
►
but when they do, it's gonna be really bad.
01:17:37
◼
►
It's like, yeah, dragons can kill us all too,
01:17:40
◼
►
but there aren't any dragons.
01:17:42
◼
►
Like, but there could be, you're right, there could be.
01:17:43
◼
►
Someone could genetically engineer a dragon,
01:17:45
◼
►
but do you have a dragon?
01:17:46
◼
►
No, but I think I know how to make one.
01:17:49
◼
►
All right, well get back to me about the dragon thing.
01:17:51
◼
►
Yeah, so it's kind of like self-driving cars.
01:17:54
◼
►
It's like, any day now, it'll come.
01:17:56
◼
►
It's like, well, no one's ever done it,
01:17:57
◼
►
but all these companies sprung up about the promise,
01:18:00
◼
►
you know, like based on the promise of like,
01:18:02
◼
►
well, you know, in five years,
01:18:03
◼
►
there'll be self-driving cars,
01:18:04
◼
►
so we need to build business around that reality.
01:18:07
◼
►
And that reality has not happened,
01:18:09
◼
►
and so a lot of those companies are having problems.
01:18:10
◼
►
So OpenAI is trying to pursue now 9,000,
01:18:15
◼
►
but I don't think they know how,
01:18:18
◼
►
like everyone else who has tried before them,
01:18:19
◼
►
but unlike lots of other companies,
01:18:21
◼
►
they've made a useful thing
01:18:22
◼
►
that is a marketable consumer product
01:18:24
◼
►
in the course of trying to do that research,
01:18:27
◼
►
and it seems that that useful consumer product
01:18:30
◼
►
is not compatible with their missions statement,
01:18:33
◼
►
because that's not what they wanted to do.
01:18:34
◼
►
Oh, that's cool and all.
01:18:35
◼
►
That's the stuff along the way,
01:18:37
◼
►
but let's not get distracted
01:18:38
◼
►
by trying to make a multi-billion dollar business
01:18:41
◼
►
out of this useful thing that we've made,
01:18:42
◼
►
and by the way, OpenAI is not the only company
01:18:45
◼
►
that's done this.
01:18:45
◼
►
Lots of other companies have similar things,
01:18:47
◼
►
so it is kind of a cutthroat business.
01:18:49
◼
►
OpenAI seems to be the leader in this field,
01:18:52
◼
►
which is why Microsoft is interested in them
01:18:53
◼
►
and why they did that deal,
01:18:55
◼
►
but it's not like this is unknown elsewhere.
01:18:57
◼
►
What is unknown everywhere is HAL 9000.
01:19:00
◼
►
That doesn't exist, and so if you're scared of it existing,
01:19:04
◼
►
okay, it would be scary if it did exist, but it doesn't,
01:19:09
◼
►
and I'll be more interested
01:19:10
◼
►
once you think you have a road to making it.
01:19:13
◼
►
Can you go from ChatGPT to HAL 9000?
01:19:16
◼
►
Maybe, maybe this is step one of five,
01:19:18
◼
►
maybe step one of 5000,
01:19:20
◼
►
or maybe you're just barking up the wrong tree
01:19:22
◼
►
and this approach isn't gonna work anymore,
01:19:23
◼
►
the plants that flap their wings, we'll see,
01:19:25
◼
►
but yeah, that's kind of the state of the world,
01:19:28
◼
►
and these two camps, at least the Sam Altman thing,
01:19:32
◼
►
you're like, okay, I've got this guy's number.
01:19:34
◼
►
I've seen people like this before.
01:19:35
◼
►
I know what he's doing.
01:19:37
◼
►
He's making products.
01:19:38
◼
►
He's selling them.
01:19:39
◼
►
It makes sense, and the OpenAI people
01:19:41
◼
►
are more like very confused sort of monks
01:19:45
◼
►
who have noble, if misguided goals and great ambitions,
01:19:50
◼
►
but what they increasingly don't have
01:19:53
◼
►
are people and money to accomplish that,
01:19:55
◼
►
and it's all through their own kind of,
01:19:58
◼
►
I'm not gonna say mismanagement,
01:19:59
◼
►
but through their own apparent misreading of the situation,
01:20:01
◼
►
which is what did you think you actually have?
01:20:04
◼
►
Oh, we control the company, and we can fire him,
01:20:06
◼
►
but if all the employees log in to him
01:20:08
◼
►
and he goes to Microsoft and all your employees leave,
01:20:10
◼
►
then you've really got nothing left,
01:20:11
◼
►
so I feel kind of bad for OpenAI
01:20:14
◼
►
because I admire the nobility of their mission,
01:20:18
◼
►
even if I think their reasoning
01:20:19
◼
►
or predictions are a little bit silly.
01:20:22
◼
►
I don't particularly admire the nobility
01:20:26
◼
►
or lack thereof of Sam Altman's ambitions,
01:20:28
◼
►
but at least it's a devil that I know.
01:20:30
◼
►
- Yeah, and I think what they created
01:20:34
◼
►
is so incredibly commercially valuable and commercializable
01:20:39
◼
►
that I don't think there was any chance
01:20:42
◼
►
of this going any other way.
01:20:45
◼
►
The idealists in OpenAI who wanted to keep it,
01:20:48
◼
►
really, nonprofit for the good of everybody,
01:20:50
◼
►
that is a noble goal, it's an interesting idea,
01:20:53
◼
►
but there was no way that's gonna happen.
01:20:55
◼
►
- I mean, the only way it would've worked
01:20:57
◼
►
if all the employees agreed,
01:20:59
◼
►
if they said, "We are OpenAI employees
01:21:02
◼
►
"because we believe in the mission
01:21:04
◼
►
"of doing this not for profit,"
01:21:06
◼
►
because if that was true, they got $10 billion
01:21:08
◼
►
from Microsoft to run all their stuff,
01:21:09
◼
►
and they've got 700 loyal employees
01:21:11
◼
►
who want it to be nonprofit,
01:21:12
◼
►
and they got one obnoxious CEO
01:21:14
◼
►
who wants to make a product out of it,
01:21:15
◼
►
but that wasn't the situation.
01:21:17
◼
►
Turns out they had 500 employees
01:21:18
◼
►
who wanted to do what the CEO did,
01:21:20
◼
►
and that is a big miscalculation.
01:21:22
◼
►
Maybe the OpenAI board thought,
01:21:24
◼
►
"This is gonna work.
01:21:25
◼
►
"All our employees believe in our mission."
01:21:27
◼
►
That's why when you do those net promoter score surveys
01:21:30
◼
►
at WorkMarker doesn't know about these.
01:21:31
◼
►
- No, yeah. - No, remember saying,
01:21:34
◼
►
that's for our clients, but anyway,
01:21:35
◼
►
for internally, like, "Do you believe
01:21:36
◼
►
"in the mission of OpenAI?"
01:21:37
◼
►
People are like, "Oh, yes, totally."
01:21:39
◼
►
For the first time since the shove,
01:21:40
◼
►
they believe in making money and getting rich.
01:21:42
◼
►
- Yeah, and again, even the reality is just
01:21:45
◼
►
when you have that many employees,
01:21:47
◼
►
a lot of them are gonna be paid in stock,
01:21:49
◼
►
or some kind of stock-based thing,
01:21:50
◼
►
where the company, if the company does well commercially,
01:21:53
◼
►
you make more money.
01:21:55
◼
►
That's really hard for all those employees to say no to.
01:21:58
◼
►
That's the thing, whatever their ambitions are or were
01:22:03
◼
►
about being a nonprofit and everything,
01:22:05
◼
►
again, that is laudable, and the world needs more of that,
01:22:09
◼
►
but the cards were stacked so hard against them
01:22:12
◼
►
to achieve that here, because what they were sitting on
01:22:15
◼
►
is such a goldmine that it's just impossible
01:22:18
◼
►
to sustain that in the environment around them,
01:22:21
◼
►
and once they got in with Microsoft,
01:22:24
◼
►
I think that pretty much was sealing the deal,
01:22:26
◼
►
"Okay, this is the direction you're gonna go now."
01:22:28
◼
►
- I mean, but they think they needed to do that.
01:22:31
◼
►
They couldn't pursue their goal of trying
01:22:32
◼
►
to make hell9000 without tons and tons of money,
01:22:35
◼
►
and they were not able to raise it on their own.
01:22:36
◼
►
They couldn't get people to say, you know what I mean?
01:22:39
◼
►
It's not like a type of thing where you can just do
01:22:40
◼
►
one quiet person alone at their personal computer
01:22:43
◼
►
is gonna have this amazing breakthrough.
01:22:45
◼
►
The current approach to solving this problem
01:22:47
◼
►
requires massive amounts of computing,
01:22:49
◼
►
which requires massive amounts of money,
01:22:51
◼
►
and you're really gonna be stymied in the attempt
01:22:53
◼
►
to achieve your goal if you just don't have enough.
01:22:55
◼
►
I think they raised $130 million or something,
01:22:58
◼
►
and Microsoft gave them 10 billion.
01:23:00
◼
►
They weren't even close.
01:23:01
◼
►
- Yeah, there was no way that the nonprofit side
01:23:08
◼
►
of their leadership, that side was inevitably going to lose,
01:23:13
◼
►
and the only question now is how and when.
01:23:15
◼
►
I think they just did, frankly,
01:23:18
◼
►
and I think it's only a very short matter of time,
01:23:21
◼
►
possibly tonight, but it's a very short matter of time
01:23:26
◼
►
before that entire part of the company,
01:23:28
◼
►
including the board, is cleared out and replaced.
01:23:32
◼
►
- Yeah, and also, it's not even clear to me.
01:23:34
◼
►
I know that OpenAI is viewed as the leader in this area,
01:23:37
◼
►
but they're not the only company doing large language models.
01:23:40
◼
►
Like, everybody's got one.
01:23:41
◼
►
Facebook's got one, Apple reportedly has one,
01:23:43
◼
►
Google's got one.
01:23:44
◼
►
Everyone is working on this technology.
01:23:47
◼
►
It is not like a secret sauce that only OpenAI has.
01:23:49
◼
►
Maybe they're the best at it.
01:23:50
◼
►
Maybe they were there first.
01:23:51
◼
►
Maybe they have advancements we don't know about,
01:23:54
◼
►
but it's a type of thing that, you know,
01:23:57
◼
►
it's kind of like, you know, so the iPhone is the best phone
01:24:00
◼
►
but Android phones exist.
01:24:02
◼
►
It's not like Apple is the only company in the world
01:24:03
◼
►
to have a touchscreen smartphone.
01:24:05
◼
►
It is a thing that exists in the industry,
01:24:07
◼
►
and that's a hard choice
01:24:08
◼
►
'cause it's a platform type thing, but like anything,
01:24:10
◼
►
like SSDs, everybody's got SSDs.
01:24:11
◼
►
It's not one company that says,
01:24:13
◼
►
"Oh, Apple's laptops are better
01:24:14
◼
►
"'cause they don't have spinning hard drives
01:24:15
◼
►
"and everyone else does."
01:24:16
◼
►
No, everybody has SSDs.
01:24:17
◼
►
It's just who has the best SSDs.
01:24:18
◼
►
Like, these large language models are so useful
01:24:21
◼
►
and so widespread, and the fact that OpenAI,
01:24:25
◼
►
especially in the beginning of their nonprofit existence,
01:24:29
◼
►
shared all their technology with the world,
01:24:31
◼
►
they shared their discoveries,
01:24:32
◼
►
like that was part of their charter
01:24:33
◼
►
and their mission statement.
01:24:34
◼
►
Everyone's more or less on the same page with these things.
01:24:36
◼
►
They're a useful technology.
01:24:38
◼
►
Everyone is thinking of new ways that they can use them
01:24:41
◼
►
in their existing products and make new products
01:24:43
◼
►
that they weren't able to make before
01:24:46
◼
►
with the student technology.
01:24:48
◼
►
Whatever happens to OpenAI, that's gonna happen, right,
01:24:51
◼
►
which is the other absurd thing about the board saying,
01:24:54
◼
►
"We wanna keep this purity of nonprofit."
01:24:56
◼
►
Like, even if all of your employees and Sam Alton
01:24:59
◼
►
agree with you, the whole rest of the industry
01:25:01
◼
►
is taking this ball and running with it
01:25:02
◼
►
because it's a useful technology
01:25:04
◼
►
that you can make money with,
01:25:05
◼
►
and so they're sticking it in everything.
01:25:07
◼
►
Will it go beyond that?
01:25:09
◼
►
Will it, like, you know, the future of these type of things,
01:25:11
◼
►
will they just get better and better
01:25:12
◼
►
until they're practically HAL 9000?
01:25:15
◼
►
Right now they're not, but they're useful.
01:25:16
◼
►
They're useful right now.
01:25:17
◼
►
And so everyone wants to have access to them,
01:25:20
◼
►
and if OpenAI had disappeared from existence,
01:25:23
◼
►
the rest of the industry would continue forward
01:25:26
◼
►
with, you know, making fancy code autocomplete
01:25:28
◼
►
in Xcode 16, for example.
01:25:30
◼
►
That's gonna happen with or without OpenAI.
01:25:32
◼
►
But HAL 9000, I don't know if there are any other companies
01:25:36
◼
►
with anything close to access to the resources
01:25:39
◼
►
that OpenAI has that are attempting to do that.
01:25:42
◼
►
Part of the fear of the OpenAI board
01:25:43
◼
►
is it's just gonna happen accidentally,
01:25:45
◼
►
and so we better do it deliberately so we can do it right.
01:25:47
◼
►
I don't think it's gonna happen accidentally
01:25:49
◼
►
any more than self-driving cars
01:25:50
◼
►
are gonna happen accidentally, but we'll see.
01:25:52
◼
►
- Let's do some Ask ATP.
01:25:54
◼
►
Tim Schmitz writes,
01:25:55
◼
►
"What's the story with ECC RAM in the Apple Silicon era?
01:25:58
◼
►
I remember it being important to some folks on Intel,
01:26:00
◼
►
but I haven't heard much about it lately.
01:26:02
◼
►
Is it not applicable or relevant on Apple Silicon?
01:26:04
◼
►
If so, why?"
01:26:06
◼
►
John, would you mind giving us a quick rehashes
01:26:08
◼
►
to what ECC RAM is, and then answer Tim's question, please.
01:26:12
◼
►
- ECC, that stands for Error Correcting Code.
01:26:15
◼
►
It's a technology used in RAM chips
01:26:17
◼
►
that will account for errors in the memory
01:26:21
◼
►
and be able to correct them if the errors are small enough.
01:26:23
◼
►
So RAM chips, they're not perfect.
01:26:26
◼
►
They're tiny little analog electronic devices.
01:26:29
◼
►
What you would hope is that you would write some bits
01:26:30
◼
►
to one location, and when you read it later,
01:26:31
◼
►
you get the exact same bits back that you wrote there.
01:26:33
◼
►
That's how it's supposed to work.
01:26:35
◼
►
But sometimes you'll read,
01:26:36
◼
►
and one of those bits will be wrong,
01:26:38
◼
►
or maybe two of the bits will be wrong.
01:26:41
◼
►
Well, electrical issues with the manufacturing of the chips,
01:26:44
◼
►
cosmic rays, all sorts of things can go wrong.
01:26:47
◼
►
And you would think,
01:26:48
◼
►
who cares if one bit is flipped here or there?
01:26:50
◼
►
But as RAM sizes have increased,
01:26:53
◼
►
the odds of finding one of those one or two bit errors
01:26:57
◼
►
has increased as well, because if you find,
01:26:58
◼
►
oh, that's gonna be one in a million,
01:27:00
◼
►
how many bits do you think are there on RAM?
01:27:02
◼
►
Back when you had eight kilobytes of RAM,
01:27:04
◼
►
there weren't as many bits
01:27:05
◼
►
as when you have 128 gigabytes of RAM.
01:27:07
◼
►
So how many errors are there?
01:27:08
◼
►
More than you might think.
01:27:09
◼
►
So as RAM sizes have increased,
01:27:12
◼
►
one of the technologies that was introduced
01:27:14
◼
►
on really important computers is ECC,
01:27:17
◼
►
where they say, okay, we store some extra information,
01:27:20
◼
►
which costs money,
01:27:21
◼
►
because you're storing more information.
01:27:23
◼
►
And with that extra information,
01:27:24
◼
►
we can tell when one of the bits
01:27:26
◼
►
is not what it's supposed to be.
01:27:27
◼
►
And in fact, sometimes we store enough information
01:27:28
◼
►
that we can tell what it was supposed to be,
01:27:30
◼
►
and we can fix it and change it back.
01:27:32
◼
►
And so your RAM gives the correct results,
01:27:34
◼
►
unlike Casey's third-party RAM and his iMac.
01:27:37
◼
►
And the kind of computers that would do that
01:27:39
◼
►
were expensive server computers
01:27:40
◼
►
that people would run important stuff on,
01:27:43
◼
►
like financial things or banking transactions,
01:27:45
◼
►
or basically server hardware.
01:27:47
◼
►
Server hardware would have ECC RAM,
01:27:48
◼
►
because it's really important
01:27:50
◼
►
that the contents of RAM be correct.
01:27:52
◼
►
The consequences of even a single bit being flipped
01:27:54
◼
►
could cause a security problem or a crash
01:27:57
◼
►
or something else that you don't want to happen,
01:27:59
◼
►
because it's a hardware failure.
01:28:00
◼
►
Back in the day, when the Mac Pro
01:28:02
◼
►
was a little bit more pro, it came with ECC RAM,
01:28:05
◼
►
because Intel Xeon CPUs
01:28:09
◼
►
were their sort of server-class CPUs,
01:28:11
◼
►
and they supported ECC RAM, and Apple would buy,
01:28:14
◼
►
and you know, the CPUs from Intel,
01:28:17
◼
►
and they would get motherboard chipsets from Intel,
01:28:20
◼
►
and they would support ECC RAM,
01:28:21
◼
►
and they would put that on their Mac Pro motherboards.
01:28:25
◼
►
These days, we know what the situation with the Mac Pro is.
01:28:28
◼
►
It is very much like a Mac Mini
01:28:30
◼
►
in a much, much, much, much, much, much bigger case
01:28:32
◼
►
with some extra stuff thrown in there.
01:28:34
◼
►
These days, Apple does not do as many things
01:28:38
◼
►
to differentiate the Mac Pro
01:28:40
◼
►
from the less expensive and vastly smaller computers,
01:28:44
◼
►
as in they're not designing entirely different RAM,
01:28:48
◼
►
entirely different SOC, entirely different anything, really,
01:28:52
◼
►
for the Mac Pro except the big case
01:28:54
◼
►
and some PCI Express stuff.
01:28:56
◼
►
The parallel story here is,
01:28:57
◼
►
and I don't know the details on this,
01:28:58
◼
►
but as RAM has advanced over the years,
01:29:03
◼
►
a lot of the new RAM designs
01:29:06
◼
►
necessarily incorporated a technology much like ECC
01:29:10
◼
►
just to function correctly,
01:29:11
◼
►
because they would have various arrangements of bits
01:29:14
◼
►
or speed enhancements or whatever
01:29:16
◼
►
that they would incorporate some kind of error correction
01:29:19
◼
►
within just the regular functioning of the RAM.
01:29:21
◼
►
You wouldn't call it ECC RAM.
01:29:22
◼
►
You'd just call it DDR4 or whatever.
01:29:24
◼
►
But if you looked at what's inside DDR4 RAM,
01:29:28
◼
►
you'd find some parts of the circuitry
01:29:30
◼
►
that are there to try to detect and/or correct errors.
01:29:34
◼
►
That leads us to the question of ECC RAM in Macs today.
01:29:38
◼
►
Is this something that Apple should have
01:29:41
◼
►
in their Mac Pros and don't?
01:29:42
◼
►
Do all Macs with the unified memory architecture
01:29:46
◼
►
where the ARM chips have ECC RAM?
01:29:49
◼
►
I would say that much like the keyboards
01:29:50
◼
►
and everything having to do with the Mac Pro,
01:29:52
◼
►
the situation is this.
01:29:54
◼
►
Apple could spend more money to essentially make RAM
01:29:58
◼
►
that is more resilient to errors in the Mac Pro
01:30:02
◼
►
and only in the Mac Pro,
01:30:03
◼
►
because that is the model that costs the most,
01:30:05
◼
►
and it's where it's most important
01:30:07
◼
►
that you not have any bit flip errors.
01:30:09
◼
►
Apple does not do that.
01:30:10
◼
►
So could it benefit from it?
01:30:14
◼
►
Yes, it could.
01:30:15
◼
►
It would cost more money and it would be better.
01:30:16
◼
►
Would it be better in a way that anybody would care about?
01:30:19
◼
►
I'm not sure, because again,
01:30:21
◼
►
I think the RAM that they do use,
01:30:23
◼
►
like what is the reliability of that RAM
01:30:26
◼
►
compared to the ECC RAM that was in the old Intel Mac Pros?
01:30:29
◼
►
Like in absolute numbers, not in terms of like,
01:30:31
◼
►
well, back then ECC RAM was better than regular RAM.
01:30:35
◼
►
Today, again, more expensive RAM
01:30:37
◼
►
with more complicated error correcting
01:30:39
◼
►
would be better than RAM without it.
01:30:41
◼
►
But in absolute values, are bit flip errors
01:30:45
◼
►
in the M2 Ultra more of a problem
01:30:48
◼
►
than they were on a Xeon with ECC RAM?
01:30:50
◼
►
I don't know.
01:30:51
◼
►
So I would follow some of the category of,
01:30:54
◼
►
if they offered it, I would like it and think it's good.
01:30:57
◼
►
And practically speaking, especially back in the old days,
01:30:59
◼
►
ECC RAM did provide better reliability
01:31:02
◼
►
than that same amount of RAM that was in ECC.
01:31:05
◼
►
So, you know, if you're wondering
01:31:07
◼
►
why did my computer have some random crash sometime,
01:31:09
◼
►
again, ask Casey about this,
01:31:10
◼
►
was it because you had some kind of problem with the RAM
01:31:12
◼
►
and would it have been prevented from ECC?
01:31:15
◼
►
Hard to say, but maybe.
01:31:16
◼
►
Like there's a reason they sold it
01:31:17
◼
►
on all those server chips for a long time.
01:31:19
◼
►
And if you had a server that didn't have ECC
01:31:20
◼
►
and data center next to one that did
01:31:22
◼
►
and you had enough of them,
01:31:23
◼
►
you could see the difference in the reliability of,
01:31:26
◼
►
you know, across hundreds and hundreds of servers
01:31:28
◼
►
of ECC versus non-ECC.
01:31:29
◼
►
Like people weren't paying extra for that ECC RAM
01:31:31
◼
►
just for the hell of it.
01:31:32
◼
►
It actually did provide a benefit.
01:31:33
◼
►
So I think it is applicable.
01:31:36
◼
►
I think it is relevant to Apple Silicon.
01:31:38
◼
►
I think we're never gonna get it in the Mac Pro.
01:31:40
◼
►
So don't hold your breath.
01:31:41
◼
►
- Chris Glime writes,
01:31:42
◼
►
"I've undertaken the task of photographing my son's art,"
01:31:45
◼
►
he just turned five,
01:31:46
◼
►
"to replace my previous strategy,
01:31:48
◼
►
which was throwing it in a cardboard box
01:31:49
◼
►
in the storage room and forgetting about it for years.
01:31:52
◼
►
Ideally, I will only keep a few of these items
01:31:54
◼
►
and toss the rest.
01:31:55
◼
►
And I'm planning to make a photo book
01:31:57
◼
►
for the grandparents for Christmas.
01:31:58
◼
►
Thankfully, I was able to borrow
01:31:59
◼
►
some lighting equipment from work
01:32:00
◼
►
and I have a decent camera.
01:32:01
◼
►
I was wondering if you all had a strategy for this.
01:32:04
◼
►
My strategy is generally speaking,
01:32:06
◼
►
throwing it in a cardboard box in the storage room
01:32:07
◼
►
and forgetting about it for years."
01:32:10
◼
►
So no, I have no good answers for this, unfortunately.
01:32:13
◼
►
Marco, do you have anything?
01:32:15
◼
►
- No, I mean, for the most part,
01:32:18
◼
►
most of my kids' art that is really,
01:32:22
◼
►
that was like when he was old enough to care
01:32:24
◼
►
and put time into it,
01:32:26
◼
►
most of that has actually been in the digital realm.
01:32:29
◼
►
Like, he's had an iPad for a while
01:32:32
◼
►
and my wife is really artistic
01:32:34
◼
►
and introduced him early on to Procreate,
01:32:38
◼
►
which is this iPad drawing app that everybody uses.
01:32:41
◼
►
And he does a lot in there.
01:32:44
◼
►
And so most of what he has artistically
01:32:47
◼
►
is either stuff on pieces of paper
01:32:49
◼
►
that are easy to store in different places,
01:32:51
◼
►
not a lot of three-dimensional stuff,
01:32:53
◼
►
or drawings in Procreate on iOS,
01:32:55
◼
►
which of course we back up and everything.
01:32:57
◼
►
So I don't really have this problem
01:33:00
◼
►
as much as many parents do
01:33:02
◼
►
just because my kids' art format is more easily storable.
01:33:09
◼
►
- My strategy is to take photographs of art
01:33:11
◼
►
so I can get rid of it because we have the same situation,
01:33:13
◼
►
just boxes and boxes of the stuff.
01:33:15
◼
►
For the most part, I just take iPhone pictures.
01:33:17
◼
►
Like, it's really, especially with just like
01:33:19
◼
►
rumply kid artwork on construction paper with glue
01:33:22
◼
►
and the corners are curling, like this, you know,
01:33:25
◼
►
Chris sent in a picture of like,
01:33:27
◼
►
he had like a lighting setup and it's big comp,
01:33:29
◼
►
I'm just like, put it down on someplace with good sunlight
01:33:32
◼
►
on the floor and take pictures of it with my iPhone.
01:33:34
◼
►
'Cause that's all I want.
01:33:35
◼
►
I can see these are not great works of art
01:33:37
◼
►
that I need to preserve future generations.
01:33:38
◼
►
Just don't remember, I'll remember that thing that he made.
01:33:40
◼
►
And I look at the pictures and make sure they're clear
01:33:42
◼
►
and not blurry and I can see all the things.
01:33:44
◼
►
And if there's one that I really, really cared about,
01:33:46
◼
►
I could square up the edges and put it in Photoshop
01:33:48
◼
►
and, you know, try to fix the shadows of the curling corners
01:33:51
◼
►
and do all that stuff.
01:33:52
◼
►
But I think the, you know, the main goal is kind of like,
01:33:57
◼
►
you know, scanning the digital photos or negatives,
01:33:59
◼
►
get it out of the physical realm and into the digital ASAP.
01:34:02
◼
►
And then you just can't hold onto that stuff.
01:34:04
◼
►
Kids make a lot of drawings.
01:34:05
◼
►
So you don't wanna throw it away and never see it again.
01:34:07
◼
►
But just, you know, use your iPhone,
01:34:09
◼
►
take a picture and then get rid of it.
01:34:12
◼
►
- That's also important to kind of distinguish,
01:34:14
◼
►
like, a lot of kid art that comes home from school,
01:34:19
◼
►
what, you know, depending on your kid, of course,
01:34:21
◼
►
you know, in my case, a lot of times it was very easy
01:34:23
◼
►
to see like, okay, the teacher told him to do this.
01:34:27
◼
►
And, you know, whatever came home was not really a work
01:34:30
◼
►
by him, it was a work by the teacher's lesson plan.
01:34:32
◼
►
And that's fine, there's a place for that.
01:34:34
◼
►
But it was very obvious when he had made something
01:34:38
◼
►
that he really cared about, rather than just follow
01:34:41
◼
►
the template the teacher set out for everybody.
01:34:43
◼
►
And so for the follow the template stuff,
01:34:46
◼
►
he didn't care about it and so we didn't have to care
01:34:48
◼
►
about it, you know, and like, our level of care
01:34:51
◼
►
would ramp up with his level of care and involvement.
01:34:54
◼
►
And so when he was doing something like on his own,
01:34:57
◼
►
you know, of his own accord with his own direction,
01:35:00
◼
►
that stuff is significantly better and worth keeping
01:35:03
◼
►
and there's way less of that as a kid goes through school
01:35:06
◼
►
compared to template stuff that, you know, everyone did.
01:35:10
◼
►
- Yeah, and there's a hierarchy, like the other thing
01:35:11
◼
►
you should do with them, aside from taking pictures
01:35:13
◼
►
and throwing them out, take them really good ones
01:35:15
◼
►
and frame them.
01:35:16
◼
►
We have a bunch of select things from various points
01:35:18
◼
►
in our kids' lives that are in frames, hanging on the wall.
01:35:20
◼
►
That's another way to preserve them.
01:35:22
◼
►
Also take digital pictures of those, by the way.
01:35:24
◼
►
But, you know, you get rid of most of it,
01:35:27
◼
►
you take a little extra credit, take photos of the gems,
01:35:30
◼
►
and then the really good ones, put in frames,
01:35:31
◼
►
put up around your house.
01:35:33
◼
►
Jimmy West writes, "Do you think the use of technology
01:35:35
◼
►
"actually makes your lives easier, or if you do it
01:35:38
◼
►
"because it's more of a hobby?
01:35:40
◼
►
"These days I try to have as little technology
01:35:41
◼
►
"in my home as I can.
01:35:43
◼
►
"I have regular light switches that make the lights
01:35:44
◼
►
"go on and off, and I don't have any home automations
01:35:47
◼
►
"of any kind.
01:35:48
◼
►
"I don't notice my life being appreciatively worse
01:35:50
◼
►
"because of this.
01:35:51
◼
►
"In fact, since reducing the use of technology,
01:35:54
◼
►
"my life has become consistently calmer
01:35:56
◼
►
"and more stress-free.
01:35:57
◼
►
"The same is true for my computer these days.
01:35:58
◼
►
"Time was my menu bar would be filled with stats
01:36:00
◼
►
"and custom functionality."
01:36:02
◼
►
Are we sure this wasn't John writing this?
01:36:04
◼
►
- No, his menu bar never had stats in it.
01:36:07
◼
►
- "Along with custom icons in the Finder
01:36:09
◼
►
"and automation scripts, all of which required
01:36:10
◼
►
"ongoing maintenance and updating.
01:36:12
◼
►
"Now I have a pretty vanilla installation of Mac OS.
01:36:14
◼
►
"My second sideline career of being an author,
01:36:16
◼
►
"I only really hit my stride productivity-wise
01:36:18
◼
►
"when I got rid of all the complicated software
01:36:20
◼
►
"and decided to just use a plain and simple text editor.
01:36:23
◼
►
"Maybe I just like the simple life, and these days
01:36:25
◼
►
"I only use as much technology as I need.
01:36:27
◼
►
"But I'm interested to know where the trade-off lies
01:36:30
◼
►
"for you with the added minor stresses that come
01:36:32
◼
►
"with incorporating and maintaining technology
01:36:34
◼
►
"in your home life.
01:36:35
◼
►
"Do you only use technology which makes your life
01:36:37
◼
►
"genuinely easier or better?
01:36:38
◼
►
"Or is there a part of you that convinces yourself
01:36:40
◼
►
"it's useful because tinkering with tech
01:36:42
◼
►
"is a bit of a hobby and you find it fun to do?"
01:36:45
◼
►
I understand what Jamie's coming from here.
01:36:47
◼
►
I think for me, it's both.
01:36:50
◼
►
I think unquestionably, it's a hobby.
01:36:53
◼
►
One does not come up with a three raspberry pie solution
01:36:57
◼
►
to knowing whether or not your garage door is open
01:36:59
◼
►
if it isn't a hobby.
01:37:01
◼
►
That is just straight up lunacy, right?
01:37:04
◼
►
But knowing when the garage door is open
01:37:07
◼
►
does indeed make my life better.
01:37:09
◼
►
So it's a little of both.
01:37:10
◼
►
I don't have a lot of automations.
01:37:12
◼
►
In fact, I just went on Automators just a couple,
01:37:15
◼
►
I think it was probably a month ago now,
01:37:17
◼
►
and talked about some of the automations I have.
01:37:20
◼
►
And I don't really have that much.
01:37:23
◼
►
But the ones I have, I genuinely do think
01:37:26
◼
►
make my life better.
01:37:27
◼
►
Would I be fine without them?
01:37:28
◼
►
Of course, I'd be just fine without them.
01:37:31
◼
►
But they do make my life a little bit better,
01:37:32
◼
►
and I like that.
01:37:33
◼
►
And again, so much of this though is
01:37:37
◼
►
I like certain kinds of tinkering.
01:37:40
◼
►
I like certain kinds of projects and stuff like that.
01:37:44
◼
►
And yeah, this is certainly a hobby.
01:37:46
◼
►
And ultimately, when I come up with a solution for something,
01:37:52
◼
►
even if it's just an out of the box solution,
01:37:55
◼
►
as I have been espousing for a little over a year now
01:37:58
◼
►
and Marco is now starting to join me,
01:38:00
◼
►
one of us, one of us,
01:38:01
◼
►
when you have your sonos playing the same music
01:38:04
◼
►
in an uninterrupted way,
01:38:06
◼
►
and without any sort of latency across your entire house,
01:38:09
◼
►
including your backyard, that's pretty rad.
01:38:12
◼
►
And granted, that's not as much tinkering as it is
01:38:15
◼
►
spending a copious amount of money,
01:38:17
◼
►
but nevertheless, that does make my life better.
01:38:19
◼
►
That is tech that makes my life better.
01:38:21
◼
►
So I see it definitely as a lot of column A
01:38:25
◼
►
and a lot of column B.
01:38:26
◼
►
But that's where I come down on it.
01:38:27
◼
►
I don't know, Marco, where do you land?
01:38:29
◼
►
- I think it depends a lot on the role of technology
01:38:34
◼
►
in your life.
01:38:35
◼
►
Are you an enthusiast about technology
01:38:37
◼
►
and you want to explore stuff like that?
01:38:39
◼
►
Or are you using it more as a tool to get your job done
01:38:44
◼
►
and your job might be something else
01:38:46
◼
►
or something that the technology
01:38:48
◼
►
is only playing an assistive role in?
01:38:50
◼
►
And this changes at different points in people's lives
01:38:52
◼
►
and for different reasons.
01:38:54
◼
►
For me, when I was younger,
01:38:56
◼
►
especially my high school and college days,
01:38:59
◼
►
I was much more of a tinkerer.
01:39:02
◼
►
And I would spend a lot more of my time,
01:39:04
◼
►
especially on the software side,
01:39:05
◼
►
a lot more of my time messing with my,
01:39:09
◼
►
I didn't have a menu bar yet 'cause I was on Windows,
01:39:11
◼
►
but messing with my Windows setup
01:39:12
◼
►
and installing a bunch of different system utilities
01:39:14
◼
►
and doing up a whole bunch of power user stuff
01:39:16
◼
►
like tweaking things and messing around with the registry
01:39:19
◼
►
and making my start button say Marco and stuff.
01:39:22
◼
►
All sorts of that kind of tinkering stuff that you do,
01:39:25
◼
►
especially as a young person,
01:39:27
◼
►
because back then my priorities were,
01:39:31
◼
►
well, try to get a girlfriend,
01:39:33
◼
►
but that wasn't going so well.
01:39:34
◼
►
So instead, I spent as much time on my computer as possible.
01:39:38
◼
►
And so I was using the computer back then
01:39:42
◼
►
for the sake of using the computer.
01:39:43
◼
►
That was the activity.
01:39:44
◼
►
The activity I was spending most of my time on
01:39:46
◼
►
was messing around on my computer.
01:39:48
◼
►
- And actually to interrupt quickly,
01:39:49
◼
►
because I was very much on the same boat,
01:39:52
◼
►
a lot of the tinkering was finding an excuse.
01:39:55
◼
►
I think this is what you're driving at,
01:39:56
◼
►
but finding an excuse to need more time on the computer.
01:40:01
◼
►
Like, oh, I don't really need my start button to say Marco,
01:40:04
◼
►
but if I wanted to figure out how to do that,
01:40:07
◼
►
that's more time I can spend using this thing,
01:40:09
◼
►
which is both a toy and a hobby and everything to me.
01:40:13
◼
►
Like, I probably speak for Marco
01:40:16
◼
►
and actually probably John as well
01:40:18
◼
►
in saying that the computer was like everything to me
01:40:21
◼
►
when I was young because there was just limitless opportunity
01:40:25
◼
►
to do anything there in a way that I think
01:40:27
◼
►
is both there today and is very, very different today.
01:40:30
◼
►
But finding all these things to tinker with
01:40:33
◼
►
was in no small part for me anyway,
01:40:36
◼
►
giving me reasons to continue to sit at the computer.
01:40:38
◼
►
- Yeah, oh, totally, me too.
01:40:40
◼
►
Like, my activity for the day would be
01:40:42
◼
►
I'm gonna sit at my computer and I'll find stuff to do.
01:40:46
◼
►
And largely, today, I actually still largely do that.
01:40:51
◼
►
I just have more things that I need to do
01:40:54
◼
►
that are at the computer and I have more things in my life
01:40:58
◼
►
that break up those times so that I have less time
01:41:02
◼
►
at the computer than I used to.
01:41:04
◼
►
But as you go through life, your priorities change,
01:41:08
◼
►
your needs change, and for the most part,
01:41:12
◼
►
most people do some degree of specialization.
01:41:15
◼
►
You specialize in some part of your career
01:41:18
◼
►
or your hobby life or your family life, whatever,
01:41:20
◼
►
and that necessitates having less time spent
01:41:24
◼
►
messing around with stuff like this.
01:41:26
◼
►
And some people, they make the messing around their career.
01:41:28
◼
►
To some degree, we do that here by being on a tech podcast,
01:41:32
◼
►
although, you mentioned automators and other shows
01:41:36
◼
►
where there are people who go way more in depth
01:41:39
◼
►
with that side of things than we ever do.
01:41:43
◼
►
And they've kind of made that a part of their career,
01:41:45
◼
►
so in some ways, for them, it's both work and play.
01:41:49
◼
►
The same way, for us, buying new Macs is both work and play.
01:41:54
◼
►
But for me personally, as I have gone through a career
01:42:01
◼
►
and adulthood and adult responsibilities
01:42:05
◼
►
and family responsibilities, my tolerance for tech
01:42:10
◼
►
that requires a lot of tinkering has gone down over time.
01:42:14
◼
►
And that happens to a lot of people.
01:42:17
◼
►
Oftentimes, you find yourself trading money for time,
01:42:22
◼
►
which is the opposite of when you're in college,
01:42:24
◼
►
you have no money and tons of time.
01:42:26
◼
►
And as you get older, a lot of times, you're like,
01:42:29
◼
►
you know what, rather than figure out how to hack myself
01:42:32
◼
►
into not needing this extra terabyte of disk space,
01:42:36
◼
►
I'm just gonna buy the one with a terabyte more
01:42:38
◼
►
of disk space because your trade-off is different
01:42:42
◼
►
at that point in your life.
01:42:43
◼
►
And for me, for what I'm doing this part of my life,
01:42:48
◼
►
there are some areas that I'm still willing
01:42:51
◼
►
to do some degree of technological tinkering.
01:42:54
◼
►
For instance, I mentioned a few episodes ago,
01:42:56
◼
►
I've been burning these Blu-ray 100 gig M-disk things
01:43:01
◼
►
for archiving data.
01:43:03
◼
►
I'm still doing that.
01:43:03
◼
►
I've burned 26 of them so far.
01:43:06
◼
►
I have my entire photo library, Tiff's entire photo library,
01:43:09
◼
►
and now my entire music library all backed up
01:43:11
◼
►
on these really weird disks.
01:43:14
◼
►
It took forever.
01:43:15
◼
►
So there are certain areas like that that I will try,
01:43:19
◼
►
partly for show content to talk about here,
01:43:21
◼
►
partly because I'm just interested in them,
01:43:23
◼
►
but my tolerance for tech that doesn't work very well
01:43:27
◼
►
or that requires lots of messing with is down to almost zero.
01:43:32
◼
►
So for instance, smart home stuff is a great example
01:43:35
◼
►
that Jamie brought up, and this is such a great example.
01:43:37
◼
►
Smart home stuff leaves you infinite potential
01:43:41
◼
►
for tinkering, but most of it really doesn't work very well.
01:43:46
◼
►
Or it'll work for a few weeks,
01:43:48
◼
►
and then something will change or break,
01:43:51
◼
►
and then you gotta redo everything
01:43:54
◼
►
to make it ever work again,
01:43:56
◼
►
or you have to add these different bridging
01:43:59
◼
►
and hacking projects or tricks to get this thing
01:44:04
◼
►
to talk to that thing and then involve this web service
01:44:07
◼
►
so that this thing can bounce things off the web service
01:44:08
◼
►
and send this thing and this other thing.
01:44:11
◼
►
That's where you lose me.
01:44:12
◼
►
Once you get into that stuff, that's where you lose me,
01:44:15
◼
►
because that doesn't make things better for me.
01:44:18
◼
►
But for a lot of people, they are on a different part
01:44:21
◼
►
of that trade-off continuum of like,
01:44:25
◼
►
do you want to spend time tinkering
01:44:27
◼
►
or do you wanna spend time just having stuff work for you
01:44:30
◼
►
and not messing with it?
01:44:32
◼
►
So for everyone, it's different, but as I said,
01:44:35
◼
►
for me, I'm closer now to I just need things to work
01:44:40
◼
►
because I need to make time for the parts
01:44:45
◼
►
of my computing life that are more important to me
01:44:47
◼
►
so that when I do get that precious time sitting
01:44:50
◼
►
in front of the computer where I don't have
01:44:52
◼
►
a different obligation that I must be doing at that moment,
01:44:55
◼
►
I'm able to do the things I really wanna do,
01:44:58
◼
►
like work on Overcast, like deep programming work
01:45:01
◼
►
or really creative work.
01:45:04
◼
►
That's what I wanna make time to do.
01:45:07
◼
►
And the more I have to mess with my technology,
01:45:10
◼
►
the less time I have for those higher priority things.
01:45:16
◼
►
- Yeah, so asking three programmers on a tech podcast
01:45:20
◼
►
is probably gonna give you a different answer
01:45:21
◼
►
than the rest of the population.
01:45:22
◼
►
But yeah, for me, tech has been my hobby, obviously,
01:45:27
◼
►
since early childhood.
01:45:29
◼
►
It's also an area of interest,
01:45:31
◼
►
which I think is different than a hobby
01:45:32
◼
►
'cause when people hear hobby, they're like,
01:45:33
◼
►
oh, it's a thing that you're doing.
01:45:35
◼
►
It's an interest of mine as well,
01:45:37
◼
►
kind of in the same way that like cars are.
01:45:40
◼
►
Like I don't, I spend all this time reading about cars
01:45:43
◼
►
that I'm never going to own.
01:45:45
◼
►
A lot of them I'll never even see in person.
01:45:47
◼
►
It's like, is your hobby cars
01:45:49
◼
►
or like all these car rebuilding videos?
01:45:50
◼
►
Are you working on cars?
01:45:51
◼
►
No, I'm never doing any of that, but I'm interested in it.
01:45:55
◼
►
I find it interesting.
01:45:56
◼
►
It is an interest of mine.
01:45:57
◼
►
So a lot of the tech stuff that I'm into, it's an interest.
01:46:00
◼
►
Even if I'm never gonna do it, I'm interested in it.
01:46:03
◼
►
I wanna learn about it.
01:46:04
◼
►
I wanna know about it.
01:46:05
◼
►
I find it interesting.
01:46:06
◼
►
So it is more than just a hobby.
01:46:08
◼
►
And then of course it was my profession as well
01:46:10
◼
►
and not in the way that like you use a computer
01:46:13
◼
►
to help you do your job.
01:46:14
◼
►
Computers were the job.
01:46:16
◼
►
It's kind of like being a builder
01:46:17
◼
►
and you build a hospital.
01:46:18
◼
►
It's like, oh, you really super into hospitals?
01:46:20
◼
►
Like, no, I'm a builder.
01:46:21
◼
►
I build things.
01:46:22
◼
►
And then you build a fire station.
01:46:23
◼
►
Oh, I guess you really love fire stations?
01:46:24
◼
►
Like, no, I'm a builder.
01:46:26
◼
►
I'll build anything.
01:46:27
◼
►
I like the task of building.
01:46:30
◼
►
Well, I was a computer programmer and yes, I was a web dev.
01:46:33
◼
►
So it was more narrow than just being a builder,
01:46:35
◼
►
but like I built so many different things
01:46:37
◼
►
with web technology,
01:46:39
◼
►
depending on what company I was working for.
01:46:41
◼
►
So my job was wrangling the computers, right?
01:46:44
◼
►
The computers were a profession directly.
01:46:47
◼
►
Not that I'm using a computer to write a novel
01:46:49
◼
►
and I'm a novelist.
01:46:51
◼
►
I'm literally wrangling the computers for you.
01:46:54
◼
►
And it's my hobby and it's my interest.
01:46:57
◼
►
So as you can imagine, the balance in my life
01:47:01
◼
►
about trade-offs for technology was massively tilted
01:47:03
◼
►
towards the tech side.
01:47:05
◼
►
And the way that manifests in daily life
01:47:07
◼
►
and sort of home life is for somebody like me,
01:47:10
◼
►
and I imagine Marco Casey as well,
01:47:12
◼
►
the personal payoff of getting something set up
01:47:17
◼
►
the way you want it,
01:47:20
◼
►
finally got my eMac set up the way I want it,
01:47:22
◼
►
the personal payoff of getting
01:47:23
◼
►
the three Raspberry Pi solution or whatever
01:47:26
◼
►
for people like us very often balances
01:47:30
◼
►
the amount of tinkering required to get there.
01:47:32
◼
►
Even Marco doesn't want to deal with a lot of stuff.
01:47:35
◼
►
He does deal with a lot of stuff,
01:47:36
◼
►
even if it's just buying and returning products
01:47:38
◼
►
and getting them set up and seeing how they work.
01:47:40
◼
►
There is some amount of tinkering
01:47:42
◼
►
and engaging in that hobby.
01:47:44
◼
►
And the reward is when you come in
01:47:46
◼
►
and it's finally set up the way you want
01:47:47
◼
►
and the music plays the way you want
01:47:49
◼
►
and you use the voice command, the lights go on
01:47:50
◼
►
and the automatic thermostat does all the things,
01:47:53
◼
►
you get a level of satisfaction out of that.
01:47:55
◼
►
And if you are in a house with people
01:47:57
◼
►
who are not exactly like you in that regard,
01:48:00
◼
►
you have something to compare it to,
01:48:01
◼
►
which is, yeah, they like it fine when the lights work
01:48:05
◼
►
and you can watch stuff on the TV.
01:48:07
◼
►
But you're over there going,
01:48:10
◼
►
see, did you see how well that worked?
01:48:12
◼
►
They didn't do any of the work to set it up.
01:48:14
◼
►
And this amount of satisfaction they're getting
01:48:17
◼
►
out of this pristine 4K television signal
01:48:20
◼
►
going to your fancy TV that you researched,
01:48:21
◼
►
they're like, oh, I guess TV works.
01:48:23
◼
►
They didn't even have to do the work.
01:48:25
◼
►
And their scales, it takes so little
01:48:28
◼
►
to unbalance their scales.
01:48:29
◼
►
That TV doesn't work one time, this is garbage.
01:48:32
◼
►
I hate everything that you've done here,
01:48:33
◼
►
get rid of it, right?
01:48:35
◼
►
And we're willing to put in hours and hours
01:48:37
◼
►
of buying products and hooking them up
01:48:38
◼
►
and doing all this stuff or whatever,
01:48:39
◼
►
if we want to get that satisfaction,
01:48:41
◼
►
now it's finally working the way I want.
01:48:42
◼
►
Even in the marketplace, it finally works
01:48:45
◼
►
without me having to deal with it.
01:48:46
◼
►
You put in effort to get to that goal.
01:48:49
◼
►
No one else, even though no one else is asked
01:48:52
◼
►
to put in any of that effort,
01:48:53
◼
►
so if there's any downside whatsoever,
01:48:55
◼
►
they're like, oh, scales unbalanced, I don't like this.
01:48:58
◼
►
I just want the light switches to work it.
01:48:59
◼
►
If the lights don't turn on one time,
01:49:01
◼
►
even though they put in zero amount of effort
01:49:03
◼
►
to make this home automation, it's like, nope.
01:49:06
◼
►
Every time lights do come on,
01:49:09
◼
►
do you think they're getting some amazing satisfaction
01:49:11
◼
►
of knowing that the giant Rube Goldberg machine
01:49:13
◼
►
that you put together to make that happen?
01:49:14
◼
►
Nope, nope, they just want the lights to work.
01:49:16
◼
►
And so everyone has to balance that differently.
01:49:19
◼
►
And I think maybe the key to at least family happiness
01:49:23
◼
►
within a household is to realize
01:49:24
◼
►
that if it is your hobby, your interest,
01:49:27
◼
►
your profession, or God forbid, all three,
01:49:30
◼
►
your satisfaction when everything comes together
01:49:36
◼
►
is not experienced by other people.
01:49:38
◼
►
And so the second something doesn't work,
01:49:42
◼
►
they will give it a thumbs down.
01:49:44
◼
►
And when it does work, they will think nothing of it.
01:49:46
◼
►
And so keep that in mind when trying to balance,
01:49:50
◼
►
like, is it a benefit to your life,
01:49:52
◼
►
or is it like a hindrance?
01:49:54
◼
►
You're not the only one, if you're living with other people,
01:49:57
◼
►
you're not the only one who's in play here.
01:49:59
◼
►
You have to think about how it's affected
01:50:00
◼
►
everyone else's life.
01:50:01
◼
►
And by the way, as you know, if they're unhappy,
01:50:04
◼
►
you're probably also gonna be unhappy.
01:50:06
◼
►
So it's not as if you can say,
01:50:08
◼
►
well, I'm satisfied with this trade off or whatever.
01:50:11
◼
►
If everyone else in the house hates it,
01:50:12
◼
►
you will eventually not be satisfied with that trade off.
01:50:14
◼
►
So self reflection is the right approach,
01:50:17
◼
►
including being true to yourself and knowing,
01:50:20
◼
►
I do like this stuff.
01:50:21
◼
►
I am interested in it.
01:50:22
◼
►
I do, like Casey's part of the project,
01:50:25
◼
►
he wants to do it for the sake of doing it
01:50:26
◼
►
and it's fun and he feels a sense of competence
01:50:28
◼
►
when he's done and he has to realize that's a him thing.
01:50:32
◼
►
That is not a rest of the house thing.
01:50:33
◼
►
And let people have hobbies.
01:50:35
◼
►
Like let, enjoy your interests.
01:50:37
◼
►
That's what life is all about.
01:50:38
◼
►
You know, just like if you have hobbies and interests,
01:50:40
◼
►
engage in them in a constructive way
01:50:42
◼
►
and get as much enjoyment out of it as you can.
01:50:44
◼
►
And hopefully you enjoy your work
01:50:46
◼
►
and hopefully you're doing something in your profession
01:50:47
◼
►
that is also something that you enjoy,
01:50:50
◼
►
or at least have some kind of interest in,
01:50:52
◼
►
but be aware that other people have different opinions
01:50:54
◼
►
about the thrill they get when it works
01:50:57
◼
►
and the feeling they get when it doesn't work.
01:51:00
◼
►
- Thanks to our sponsor this week, Squarespace.
01:51:03
◼
►
And thanks to our members who support us directly.
01:51:05
◼
►
You can join us at ATP.fm/join.
01:51:08
◼
►
And we will talk to you next week.
01:51:11
◼
►
(upbeat music)
01:51:13
◼
►
♪ Now the show is over ♪
01:51:16
◼
►
♪ They didn't even mean to begin ♪
01:51:18
◼
►
♪ 'Cause it was accidental ♪
01:51:20
◼
►
♪ Accidental ♪
01:51:21
◼
►
♪ Oh, it was accidental ♪
01:51:22
◼
►
♪ Accidental ♪
01:51:24
◼
►
♪ John didn't do any research ♪
01:51:26
◼
►
♪ Marco and Casey wouldn't let him ♪
01:51:29
◼
►
♪ 'Cause it was accidental ♪
01:51:31
◼
►
♪ Accidental ♪
01:51:32
◼
►
♪ Oh, it was accidental ♪
01:51:33
◼
►
♪ Accidental ♪
01:51:34
◼
►
♪ And you can find the show notes at ATP.fm ♪
01:51:39
◼
►
♪ And if you're into Twitter ♪
01:51:42
◼
►
♪ You can follow them at C-A-S-E-Y-L-I-S-S ♪
01:51:47
◼
►
♪ So that's Casey List M-A-R-C-O-A-R-M ♪
01:51:53
◼
►
♪ N-T-M-A-R-C-O-R-M-N-S-I-R-A-C ♪
01:51:58
◼
►
♪ U-S-A-C-R-A-C-U-S-A ♪
01:52:00
◼
►
♪ It's accidental ♪
01:52:02
◼
►
♪ Accidental ♪
01:52:04
◼
►
♪ They didn't mean to accidental ♪
01:52:07
◼
►
♪ Accidental ♪
01:52:09
◼
►
♪ Tech podcast ♪
01:52:11
◼
►
♪ So long ♪
01:52:13
◼
►
- So did we order our IE pins yet?
01:52:17
◼
►
- Yeah, totally.
01:52:19
◼
►
- Can you order them?
01:52:20
◼
►
Are they accepting orders?
01:52:21
◼
►
- Yes, so here's what happened.
01:52:23
◼
►
So a couple episodes ago,
01:52:25
◼
►
like right before we recorded,
01:52:28
◼
►
The Verge got the leak of most of the details
01:52:31
◼
►
about the humane AI pin that was about to be unveiled.
01:52:35
◼
►
We did our episode, we talked a little bit
01:52:36
◼
►
about our impressions of just seeing The Verge leak.
01:52:39
◼
►
And we were like, well, you know,
01:52:40
◼
►
we don't wanna judge it too much
01:52:42
◼
►
because we don't know their side of the story yet.
01:52:44
◼
►
Let's see what happens when they officially unveil it.
01:52:48
◼
►
Then the next day, they officially unveiled it
01:52:51
◼
►
with this really odd video and opened up preorders.
01:52:56
◼
►
And then what happened in the meantime
01:52:59
◼
►
is preorders opened up, no one noticed,
01:53:02
◼
►
and then all this stuff blew up with open AI
01:53:04
◼
►
a few days later. (laughs)
01:53:06
◼
►
And so it seemed to breeze by without much mention.
01:53:10
◼
►
And I think if I had to guess,
01:53:12
◼
►
I think humane's chance in the press is already over.
01:53:17
◼
►
But I thought it might be interesting
01:53:19
◼
►
to just talk about it a little more
01:53:20
◼
►
because we did get more details
01:53:23
◼
►
about the humane AI pin product, their first product.
01:53:26
◼
►
And this is, it's kind of a, it's a noteworthy thing.
01:53:30
◼
►
But I think it's interesting,
01:53:31
◼
►
the era of technology that we are in,
01:53:35
◼
►
all of this drama around open AI
01:53:39
◼
►
has gotten way more attention
01:53:41
◼
►
and is way more interesting to the tech press
01:53:43
◼
►
than a launch of a pretty hyped device
01:53:50
◼
►
that's a whole new device type
01:53:51
◼
►
from a whole bunch of ex-Apple people.
01:53:53
◼
►
That, 10, 15 years ago,
01:53:57
◼
►
that would have been way more headline-grabbing
01:53:59
◼
►
than it ends up that it has been
01:54:02
◼
►
and way more relevant, I think, to the modern tech world
01:54:05
◼
►
than it will probably end up being.
01:54:08
◼
►
So I think that's interesting by itself.
01:54:09
◼
►
But also just kind of looking at the humane product,
01:54:13
◼
►
now that we know all the details about it,
01:54:16
◼
►
or at least whatever they have chosen to show so far,
01:54:18
◼
►
Verg seems like pretty much everything.
01:54:20
◼
►
What, if anything, is different,
01:54:26
◼
►
like now that they've unveiled it,
01:54:27
◼
►
basically everything that Verg said was correct,
01:54:29
◼
►
but now we just have more details
01:54:32
◼
►
about what some of its features are,
01:54:34
◼
►
how some of these features work.
01:54:36
◼
►
We see the laser thing that, don't call it a screen screen.
01:54:41
◼
►
We see how humane is positioning it,
01:54:44
◼
►
what they want it to be.
01:54:46
◼
►
It has all these, basically,
01:54:49
◼
►
it's kind of like wearing an Amazon Echo on your chest
01:54:51
◼
►
that happens to have a few extra features.
01:54:53
◼
►
I gotta say, the video,
01:54:58
◼
►
and again, the video was really weird,
01:55:02
◼
►
and I'm just gonna set that aside
01:55:04
◼
►
and just focus on the product,
01:55:05
◼
►
'cause the video didn't do them any favors, I don't think.
01:55:08
◼
►
But at least we see what they're going for.
01:55:12
◼
►
We see, here's this thing that you're gonna wear
01:55:15
◼
►
as this, basically as this badge on your chest
01:55:18
◼
►
that you tap and ask it to do things.
01:55:22
◼
►
It can play music for you,
01:55:24
◼
►
it can answer questions for you sometimes correctly.
01:55:28
◼
►
It can take pictures for you with a camera
01:55:32
◼
►
that faces front, like a body cam if you're a cop,
01:55:35
◼
►
like it's that kind of perspective.
01:55:36
◼
►
There's a whole bunch of interesting ideas here.
01:55:43
◼
►
I don't think this is going to go well.
01:55:47
◼
►
I would actually, I would honestly kind of be surprised
01:55:52
◼
►
if they made it to their launch day.
01:55:55
◼
►
They're taking pre-orders now,
01:55:58
◼
►
and they say estimated delivery early 2024,
01:56:00
◼
►
but I would be surprised if they're getting any pre-orders
01:56:06
◼
►
that aren't just from my gadget reviewers,
01:56:09
◼
►
and even then, I don't think
01:56:10
◼
►
it's gonna be that big of a number.
01:56:11
◼
►
But anyway, but I think it's interesting,
01:56:14
◼
►
when you look at this product,
01:56:16
◼
►
there are a lot of interesting ideas.
01:56:18
◼
►
It's definitely going to flop,
01:56:22
◼
►
and I think it's going to flop because they seem to have,
01:56:27
◼
►
how do I put it?
01:56:31
◼
►
I mean, they seem to have gone
01:56:33
◼
►
for an ideal physical environment
01:56:36
◼
►
that doesn't really exist for a lot of people
01:56:38
◼
►
based on tech features that really aren't ready yet.
01:56:42
◼
►
Or in some cases, they pulled off technology that is cool,
01:56:45
◼
►
but is not actually better
01:56:47
◼
►
than what they are trying to replace.
01:56:49
◼
►
So for instance, the physical challenges.
01:56:52
◼
►
As discussed last time, this is like a pin
01:56:56
◼
►
that attaches to your clothing,
01:56:58
◼
►
has magnetic backs to hold it on and charge it.
01:57:01
◼
►
I mean, okay, what if I don't want this giant thing
01:57:04
◼
►
on the front of my shirt?
01:57:06
◼
►
It's pretty big, it's pretty noticeable.
01:57:08
◼
►
It's not like a little tiny enamel pin.
01:57:10
◼
►
It's a big badge-sized pin.
01:57:14
◼
►
It is not discreet at all.
01:57:16
◼
►
Anyone would see this,
01:57:18
◼
►
and anyone who doesn't know what this is
01:57:20
◼
►
would definitely ask you about it.
01:57:21
◼
►
What the heck is that?
01:57:22
◼
►
What is on your shirt?
01:57:24
◼
►
So there's that angle of it.
01:57:26
◼
►
There's the reality that it weighs about
01:57:29
◼
►
as much as two AA batteries,
01:57:31
◼
►
which is not heavy but not light.
01:57:33
◼
►
And imagine that just flopping around in your chest all day.
01:57:37
◼
►
That would actually be noticeable,
01:57:39
◼
►
and that would be kind of annoying.
01:57:41
◼
►
If you're wearing any kind of lightweight clothing,
01:57:42
◼
►
that's gonna be very noticeable.
01:57:45
◼
►
Suppose it's a season, and you wanna go outside
01:57:50
◼
►
and put a jacket on or a hoodie or something.
01:57:52
◼
►
Do you have to not have the features of this thing
01:57:54
◼
►
during that time, or do you take it off your shirt
01:57:57
◼
►
and move it to your jacket?
01:57:59
◼
►
Every time you add or remove a layer of clothing,
01:58:01
◼
►
it's gonna be a problem with this kind of device?
01:58:05
◼
►
- Well, but Marco, I don't understand why you would say
01:58:08
◼
►
that that would be an issue.
01:58:10
◼
►
First of all, how could they possibly know,
01:58:11
◼
►
a company based in the greater San Francisco area,
01:58:14
◼
►
how could they possibly know anything
01:58:16
◼
►
about putting on and off layers?
01:58:17
◼
►
I mean, that's not something
01:58:18
◼
►
that happens in San Francisco ever.
01:58:19
◼
►
- I know, it's like,
01:58:20
◼
►
again, and even just the whole concept of like,
01:58:25
◼
►
I hate my phone so much that I'm going to wear this thing
01:58:31
◼
►
and use it instead of a phone in many cases
01:58:33
◼
►
for things that really a phone would be better at.
01:58:36
◼
►
But the environment that they wanna use this in,
01:58:40
◼
►
it's like, I don't wanna be talking to something
01:58:45
◼
►
constantly out in the world.
01:58:47
◼
►
I barely even wanna do it in my own house.
01:58:50
◼
►
Like, the idea that it is a voice-first interface,
01:58:53
◼
►
I find optimistic, but not super compelling
01:58:57
◼
►
for most realities that most people live in.
01:59:01
◼
►
They also try to replace the screen.
01:59:04
◼
►
This is a screenless device, kind of,
01:59:07
◼
►
but it does have that laser projecting thing
01:59:12
◼
►
that can project a screen onto your hand.
01:59:15
◼
►
You know, they don't call it a screen,
01:59:16
◼
►
but I got news for you, that's a screen.
01:59:19
◼
►
Like, that's just a really weird, crappy screen
01:59:23
◼
►
that is very limited and a little bit difficult to use.
01:59:26
◼
►
- Excuse me, it is a laser ink display, thank you very much.
01:59:31
◼
►
- But yeah, and again, that's kind of cool tech
01:59:34
◼
►
for something, like I'm sure there's good uses for that,
01:59:35
◼
►
but when it showed it in the video, I was like,
01:59:37
◼
►
oh, you're just navigating a screen.
01:59:40
◼
►
It just happens to be projected onto your hand
01:59:42
◼
►
and you gotta tilt your hand
01:59:43
◼
►
and weird ways to interact with it,
01:59:45
◼
►
but that's just a screen.
01:59:46
◼
►
It's just like what John always brings up,
01:59:49
◼
►
when I tried to have my magazine app
01:59:51
◼
►
that didn't have a settings screen,
01:59:53
◼
►
and it ends up I just kinda had to shove settings everywhere
01:59:55
◼
►
and it was a worse design
01:59:56
◼
►
and I ended up just having to make a settings screen.
01:59:58
◼
►
In this case, navigating this device,
02:00:00
◼
►
what they were showing in the video,
02:00:03
◼
►
they're using a device with a screen.
02:00:05
◼
►
It's just a really unusual kind of screen,
02:00:07
◼
►
but they were still navigating it like a screen
02:00:10
◼
►
and using it like a screen,
02:00:11
◼
►
and it turns out you need a screen
02:00:13
◼
►
for a lot of these things.
02:00:14
◼
►
And if you're gonna have a screen, just use your phone.
02:00:18
◼
►
It's way better. (laughs)
02:00:21
◼
►
So there's all that to contend with,
02:00:23
◼
►
and so I think they have a lot of physical challenges
02:00:28
◼
►
to this, that there is just, physically speaking,
02:00:31
◼
►
I don't see any reason why this is better
02:00:34
◼
►
than a phone and a watch.
02:00:36
◼
►
For all of the ambient availability that they have on it,
02:00:41
◼
►
it should be a watch, 'cause a watch is physically
02:00:45
◼
►
a much easier and more versatile thing
02:00:47
◼
►
that can work for more people in more conditions than this.
02:00:50
◼
►
And even then, it's like, but I mean,
02:00:53
◼
►
this is not that different from what a phone does,
02:00:56
◼
►
and a phone is better at all these things,
02:00:58
◼
►
and you already have a phone.
02:01:00
◼
►
But I also think what's interesting is that
02:01:02
◼
►
the ecosystem realities of the modern technological world
02:01:07
◼
►
is like, even if this was a great idea
02:01:11
◼
►
that was very well executed and that everybody would want,
02:01:15
◼
►
the reality is they're trying to have this
02:01:18
◼
►
replace your phone in a lot of key roles,
02:01:22
◼
►
including things like, it has its own phone number,
02:01:26
◼
►
they want people to call this and to message this, okay.
02:01:31
◼
►
So you're gonna give people a whole new number
02:01:35
◼
►
just for your AI pin, or are you gonna move your number
02:01:37
◼
►
to it and then not have that number on your phone?
02:01:40
◼
►
Are people supposed to text this,
02:01:43
◼
►
and then it's just gonna read you a summary
02:01:45
◼
►
of your friends' text messages, like hey, you know what,
02:01:47
◼
►
I don't actually wanna read my friends' text messages,
02:01:50
◼
►
just summarize them for me. (laughs)
02:01:52
◼
►
Like, there are so many parts about this
02:01:54
◼
►
that it makes for a cool two-second demo,
02:01:58
◼
►
but if you think about it for another two seconds,
02:02:00
◼
►
you're like, oh, wait a minute, though,
02:02:01
◼
►
but what about this, or wait, wouldn't this fail
02:02:05
◼
►
in this one way, or wouldn't this have
02:02:06
◼
►
this major shortcoming?
02:02:08
◼
►
But I think it's interesting that because
02:02:11
◼
►
of the ecosystem realities of our tech world today,
02:02:15
◼
►
because this is trying to replace your phone,
02:02:17
◼
►
it has no chance whatsoever, because who is gonna buy this
02:02:21
◼
►
to replace their phone if it's not going to sync
02:02:24
◼
►
all this stuff back to their phone?
02:02:27
◼
►
Like, it's not gonna sync with your,
02:02:29
◼
►
it's not gonna have iMessage support,
02:02:31
◼
►
so you're gonna become a green bubble friend,
02:02:33
◼
►
and it's gonna sync to nothing, you're gonna have,
02:02:36
◼
►
like, none of your messages that come to your AI pin
02:02:38
◼
►
are gonna appear in your phone's messaging app,
02:02:41
◼
►
'cause it doesn't work that way.
02:02:43
◼
►
You have to have this different phone number for it,
02:02:46
◼
►
maybe you could do some kind of forwarding tricks,
02:02:48
◼
►
but who's gonna do that?
02:02:49
◼
►
So, it's interesting that the modern Apple
02:02:53
◼
►
and Google duopoly here, there's actually not that much room
02:02:56
◼
►
for a startup like this to come in and make their own thing,
02:02:59
◼
►
because unless it works really, really well,
02:03:02
◼
►
and is very, very integrated with either iOS or Android,
02:03:06
◼
►
something like this is not gonna get off the ground,
02:03:08
◼
►
which is kind of a shame.
02:03:09
◼
►
Like, honestly, again, I don't think they did,
02:03:12
◼
►
I don't think this is a very compelling product, honestly,
02:03:14
◼
►
but suppose it was, it still would fail,
02:03:19
◼
►
because of that massive hardware lock-in environment
02:03:23
◼
►
that we are in now with these modern platforms,
02:03:25
◼
►
and that's kind of a shame, but ultimately, honestly,
02:03:29
◼
►
I don't think this is what Humain originally intended
02:03:33
◼
►
to launch, the Humain company and the massive talent drain
02:03:38
◼
►
they did from Apple and all the work they've been doing
02:03:41
◼
►
greatly predates the rise of what we're calling AI today.
02:03:47
◼
►
What we're calling AI today is a very recent thing.
02:03:50
◼
►
Humain's been in development for longer than that.
02:03:52
◼
►
So I think what probably happened is they were probably
02:03:56
◼
►
planning something else, or at least a very different focus
02:04:00
◼
►
for this product, it wasn't working out so well,
02:04:04
◼
►
they started running out of money, maybe,
02:04:05
◼
►
or running out of time, and they kind of pivoted recently
02:04:09
◼
►
to be like, hey, you know what, let's make it really AI
02:04:11
◼
►
focused, that way that'll get more attention,
02:04:13
◼
►
it'll fit the current market better,
02:04:15
◼
►
maybe it'll help us raise more money or whatever.
02:04:17
◼
►
So I think there's a more complicated story here,
02:04:21
◼
►
but basically, this product doesn't even seem like
02:04:24
◼
►
what they originally set out to make,
02:04:26
◼
►
and also, it doesn't seem like it's going to succeed at all.
02:04:29
◼
►
So frankly, again, I would be surprised if it ships.
02:04:34
◼
►
I think the company might go under and get bought
02:04:36
◼
►
for AquaHire or whatever before this even ships.
02:04:41
◼
►
And if it does ship, I don't think it's gonna last long.
02:04:46
◼
►
- I talked about this for a while
02:04:47
◼
►
in the upcoming episode of Rectiffs,
02:04:49
◼
►
so I won't repeat too much of what I said there,
02:04:50
◼
►
if you wanna hear me talk about it
02:04:51
◼
►
for a little bit longer with Merlin.
02:04:54
◼
►
But yeah, this thing, it's kind of hard to tell
02:04:58
◼
►
when they talk about it, whether they really believe
02:05:03
◼
►
this wrong-headed idea of replacing people's phones,
02:05:05
◼
►
as in any moment you spend on your phone is bad,
02:05:07
◼
►
and so to the degree that we can reduce that or replace it,
02:05:10
◼
►
our product is good, this kind of value judgment,
02:05:13
◼
►
everything that we can help you do with your little badge,
02:05:17
◼
►
that's a win, because it's time you didn't spend
02:05:19
◼
►
on your phone, and that's why it's good,
02:05:21
◼
►
because phone is bad and this is good.
02:05:24
◼
►
I can't tell if they really believe that.
02:05:26
◼
►
I kind of think maybe they do,
02:05:28
◼
►
and that's what makes you think this is actually
02:05:29
◼
►
kind of the product they wanted to make,
02:05:31
◼
►
which is essentially, get off those screens, kids,
02:05:35
◼
►
and don't look at screens,
02:05:38
◼
►
and just have a thing that's a badge,
02:05:39
◼
►
and I think the AI stuff coming along was like,
02:05:41
◼
►
"Wow, this is a great boon for us,"
02:05:42
◼
►
'cause we were already going down this path
02:05:44
◼
►
of like, screens bad, project light onto your hand instead
02:05:47
◼
►
and talk to your badge,
02:05:47
◼
►
and now we can do it even better, right?
02:05:49
◼
►
But it's hard for me to really,
02:05:52
◼
►
if they really did believe that, it's like, really?
02:05:54
◼
►
Did these smart people all really buy into that thing?
02:05:57
◼
►
Maybe they had a very charismatic leader
02:06:00
◼
►
who really believed in that or something?
02:06:02
◼
►
The flip side of that is what you just alluded to,
02:06:03
◼
►
and what I mostly spent all rectives talking about,
02:06:06
◼
►
the platform problem.
02:06:08
◼
►
A product like this, essentially an Amazon Echo,
02:06:11
◼
►
a smarter Amazon Echo that you pin on your clothing
02:06:15
◼
►
that you can talk to and that has a camera
02:06:17
◼
►
that faces out or whatever, great idea.
02:06:20
◼
►
Unfortunately, you cannot make that product
02:06:22
◼
►
without deep integration with Android or iOS,
02:06:26
◼
►
and the only companies that can have
02:06:27
◼
►
that kind of deep integration with Android or iOS
02:06:30
◼
►
are companies that are currently heavily entrenched in that,
02:06:34
◼
►
either Google, because they make Android,
02:06:36
◼
►
or a very big Google phone maker like Samsung or whatever,
02:06:40
◼
►
or of course, Apple.
02:06:41
◼
►
Humane out here cannot have the integration they need
02:06:45
◼
►
with the iPhone and iOS to make a good version
02:06:48
◼
►
of their little badgy product,
02:06:49
◼
►
because Apple doesn't allow it,
02:06:51
◼
►
because their platform does not allow
02:06:53
◼
►
things like this to happen.
02:06:54
◼
►
And rectives, the example I gave was Quicksilver,
02:06:56
◼
►
we ended up talking about like, you know,
02:06:58
◼
►
command space things that you type or whatever.
02:07:00
◼
►
macOS as a platform was able to,
02:07:04
◼
►
and continues to be able to, support things like this.
02:07:07
◼
►
A system integrated extension that starts to become
02:07:10
◼
►
part of the way you use your computer,
02:07:11
◼
►
that the person who made that computer
02:07:13
◼
►
and the operating system didn't foresee,
02:07:15
◼
►
but that becomes like, that is like deeply entrenched,
02:07:19
◼
►
hitting command space, I don't know if Spotlight exists,
02:07:21
◼
►
but before Spotlight exists, there was things like Quicksilver
02:07:23
◼
►
and Launchpad and stuff like that, right?
02:07:26
◼
►
A, what we would call a system extension.
02:07:28
◼
►
The things that the AI pin would have to do
02:07:31
◼
►
would have to make it like a system extension.
02:07:33
◼
►
It's the same reason we can't replace Siri
02:07:34
◼
►
with something better, the same reason
02:07:36
◼
►
we can't replace reminders, it's like the iPhone ecosystem
02:07:40
◼
►
is too closed to support innovation like this
02:07:43
◼
►
unless it comes from Apple.
02:07:44
◼
►
That is, when you're saying this is a shame, Marco,
02:07:45
◼
►
that is the biggest shame of it,
02:07:47
◼
►
is that Apple's control of this platform
02:07:49
◼
►
does not allow innovations like this to be successful.
02:07:52
◼
►
The only company that could do a pin like that well
02:07:55
◼
►
is Apple on the iPhone.
02:07:57
◼
►
And on Android, it's a little bit better, but not much,
02:07:59
◼
►
because Google really controls that platform very well,
02:08:01
◼
►
and there's a small number of Android phone makers
02:08:04
◼
►
that have the wherewithal to do their own software stacks
02:08:06
◼
►
and that kind of integration.
02:08:07
◼
►
And by the way, if you do something Google doesn't like,
02:08:09
◼
►
they're not gonna let you in the Play Store,
02:08:11
◼
►
and then you get, you know, it's,
02:08:12
◼
►
these platforms are not as open as the personal computer
02:08:15
◼
►
and the Mac's were, right?
02:08:17
◼
►
Because there are so many things
02:08:19
◼
►
that we continue to do to this day,
02:08:20
◼
►
even as locked down as the Mac is today,
02:08:22
◼
►
there are so many things that you can,
02:08:24
◼
►
that a third party can do to enhance the way a Mac works
02:08:28
◼
►
at a system level that feels part of the system
02:08:30
◼
►
that allows innovation that yes,
02:08:32
◼
►
eventually the platform owner copies like,
02:08:33
◼
►
oh, someone made a menu bar, a clock in the menu bar.
02:08:36
◼
►
Eventually Apple's gonna put that into the operating system,
02:08:38
◼
►
but that's how things advance.
02:08:39
◼
►
And iOS, it's like, run your little apps
02:08:42
◼
►
in your little sandbox in your little world
02:08:44
◼
►
and get your little, you know, squircle, right?
02:08:46
◼
►
But don't you dare mess with any other part of the system.
02:08:48
◼
►
We control notifications, we control the status bar,
02:08:51
◼
►
we control the default, you know, the web browser,
02:08:55
◼
►
the AI agent that's installed, the default mapping thing,
02:08:58
◼
►
and like to the degree that Apple slowly opens that stuff up,
02:09:02
◼
►
they're so far from allowing something
02:09:05
◼
►
like the humane pin to work.
02:09:07
◼
►
So I feel for the company and that's why I think,
02:09:09
◼
►
did you make this because you think
02:09:11
◼
►
this is the best thing to do?
02:09:12
◼
►
Or did you make it like this because you have no choice?
02:09:15
◼
►
It has to have its own phone number.
02:09:17
◼
►
It can't sync, it can't use iMessage.
02:09:19
◼
►
Like it can't share, like you have no choice but to do this.
02:09:23
◼
►
You have no choice to at least try to be standalone
02:09:25
◼
►
because Apple doesn't want you, it won't let you.
02:09:28
◼
►
Integrate in the way that you want, right?
02:09:30
◼
►
You'd want to be able to just talk to it
02:09:32
◼
►
and have it do things on your phone when you talk to it
02:09:34
◼
►
and have a tight connection with,
02:09:35
◼
►
Apple can barely make a tight connection
02:09:36
◼
►
between their own watch and their phone for crying out loud,
02:09:39
◼
►
let alone letting the third parties do it.
02:09:41
◼
►
So, you know, again, I can't tell if this company thinks
02:09:44
◼
►
this is actually a good idea and phones are evil
02:09:46
◼
►
or they just, they had a, you know,
02:09:48
◼
►
they just see the reality that's like,
02:09:50
◼
►
if we have no choice, we have to pretend
02:09:53
◼
►
that we are replacing the phone,
02:09:54
◼
►
we have to be as standalone as possible,
02:09:56
◼
►
we have to get our own phone number,
02:09:57
◼
►
we have to have our own world with our own contacts
02:09:59
◼
►
and our own messaging and, you know, it's just,
02:10:01
◼
►
and that's never gonna fly,
02:10:04
◼
►
even if you did everything great
02:10:05
◼
►
and it seems like you didn't.
02:10:06
◼
►
And then there's the problems we talked about last week
02:10:08
◼
►
of like they're assembling a bunch of disparate parts
02:10:10
◼
►
into a whole that they hope is greater
02:10:11
◼
►
than the sum of that parts, I don't think it is
02:10:13
◼
►
and I think a lot of that parts don't work right yet.
02:10:16
◼
►
- I also vehemently agree that it's going to flop,
02:10:19
◼
►
like I will be flabbergasted
02:10:22
◼
►
if this really gets any traction whatsoever.
02:10:24
◼
►
In fact, I would be surprised if it gets as much traction
02:10:26
◼
►
as Google Glass got and yes, I realize what I just said.
02:10:29
◼
►
- I hope it does get to the point
02:10:30
◼
►
where tech reviewers review it
02:10:31
◼
►
'cause I wanna read those reviews.
02:10:33
◼
►
- Yeah, agreed.
02:10:34
◼
►
But I do think there are some very clever
02:10:37
◼
►
and interesting ideas here.
02:10:38
◼
►
I just, I really am extremely put off
02:10:42
◼
►
by voice being the only real interaction model.
02:10:45
◼
►
Like yes, there's the laser ink display or whatever,
02:10:47
◼
►
but effectively it's just voice
02:10:49
◼
►
and I really don't like that at all.
02:10:52
◼
►
Like I would much rather type
02:10:54
◼
►
than speak almost any time.
02:10:57
◼
►
And maybe that makes me an old, I don't know.
02:10:58
◼
►
I don't think that's unique to old people.
02:11:00
◼
►
- But what would you type on?
02:11:01
◼
►
- Well, no, no, I agree, yeah.
02:11:02
◼
►
- Eventually they end up making a phone
02:11:04
◼
►
and we know they can't.
02:11:05
◼
►
Oh, well maybe they just have an app on iOS
02:11:07
◼
►
and then you get back to the integration problem.
02:11:08
◼
►
Okay, so you've got a hardware device
02:11:09
◼
►
and you've got an app on iOS.
02:11:11
◼
►
How well do they integrate with each other?
02:11:12
◼
►
Is your app running all the time?
02:11:13
◼
►
Can they communicate easily all the time or is it just,
02:11:16
◼
►
you have to fit within this little walls that Apple makes.
02:11:19
◼
►
Here's what apps are allowed to do
02:11:20
◼
►
and here's what hardware accessories you're allowed to do
02:11:22
◼
►
and here's when they're allowed to talk to each other
02:11:24
◼
►
and how much and through what means and so terrible.
02:11:27
◼
►
- I agree with you but like as an example,
02:11:29
◼
►
one of the things they demoed in their very funny video,
02:11:32
◼
►
which by the way, it's like 10 minutes
02:11:33
◼
►
and it is worth watching. - Seems longer.
02:11:35
◼
►
- It's so weird. - First of all,
02:11:36
◼
►
it does seem longer but it is so weird.
02:11:38
◼
►
And Imran or whatever his name is, the head,
02:11:42
◼
►
I think for like the TED Talk he did way back when,
02:11:45
◼
►
he's like kind of, I don't know if aloof
02:11:48
◼
►
is the word I'm looking for but he's kind of like chill,
02:11:51
◼
►
I don't really care what's going on right now vibe.
02:11:53
◼
►
I think that did work for the TED Talk
02:11:55
◼
►
but for the product video, it did not land well
02:12:00
◼
►
and it is worth spending the 10 minutes watching this thing
02:12:03
◼
►
'cause it's something else.
02:12:04
◼
►
- He looks a little sleepy, not high energy.
02:12:06
◼
►
- I understand that's just his vibe
02:12:09
◼
►
but like the whole video, it's like there is no enthusiasm
02:12:13
◼
►
about this product being displayed whatsoever.
02:12:15
◼
►
- Yep, no, it's very true.
02:12:17
◼
►
So all that aside, there are, I genuinely think
02:12:20
◼
►
there's some very cool things in this.
02:12:22
◼
►
So like as an example, I forget exactly what the phrase was
02:12:26
◼
►
but he talks about how, oh, if you've been not paying
02:12:29
◼
►
attention to your text messages for a couple hours,
02:12:30
◼
►
maybe you're at a dinner at a kid's thing,
02:12:33
◼
►
you can say catch me up and it will use AI
02:12:38
◼
►
to hopefully do a good job of saying,
02:12:41
◼
►
of the 907 text messages you've just received,
02:12:44
◼
►
the key takeaways are you gotta go to dinner
02:12:46
◼
►
in half an hour with your wife at such and such a location
02:12:49
◼
►
and your kid wants to know if they can play more Minecraft
02:12:52
◼
►
or whatever the case may be.
02:12:54
◼
►
That to me is cool or I think they've shown
02:12:56
◼
►
other examples of--
02:12:57
◼
►
- That would be cool if it worked
02:12:59
◼
►
but with any of these things, you're always like,
02:13:02
◼
►
okay, so what is the consequence if it doesn't quite work?
02:13:07
◼
►
Probably not that big for summarizing text messages
02:13:10
◼
►
but are you gonna rely on, like what if it's something
02:13:13
◼
►
about when someone needs to be picked up or dropped off
02:13:15
◼
►
or stop off at the store and get something or whatever
02:13:17
◼
►
and it either tells you something like that
02:13:20
◼
►
that didn't exist or doesn't tell you about it
02:13:21
◼
►
and does exist and getting back to the technology
02:13:23
◼
►
making your life better and you come home
02:13:25
◼
►
and your wife's like, what, did you forget to pick up Timmy?
02:13:29
◼
►
You're like, oh, what do you mean?
02:13:31
◼
►
I texted you, I said you need to pick him up at the school.
02:13:34
◼
►
And I was like, oh, well, I asked my AI pin to catch me up
02:13:37
◼
►
and it didn't mention that.
02:13:38
◼
►
How do you think that's gonna fly?
02:13:40
◼
►
- What are you supposed to do
02:13:41
◼
►
after it summarizes your messages?
02:13:43
◼
►
Do you just delete them or do you read them later?
02:13:45
◼
►
- But I'm saying, is the summary useful?
02:13:48
◼
►
The summary's only useful to you if you believe it.
02:13:50
◼
►
And if you have any doubt, again, maybe you don't care.
02:13:53
◼
►
Maybe it's like, oh, I don't care,
02:13:55
◼
►
but I feel like it'll only take one of those things
02:13:57
◼
►
where you were supposed to pick up your kid and you didn't
02:13:59
◼
►
and you have to explain why by saying that you asked
02:14:02
◼
►
for a summary from your pin and your wife's gonna say,
02:14:04
◼
►
well, never use that again.
02:14:06
◼
►
Because obviously it doesn't work every time.
02:14:09
◼
►
You know what I mean?
02:14:10
◼
►
And it's not life or death, like, oh, the kid's at school.
02:14:13
◼
►
But that type of thing, when you get onto stuff
02:14:18
◼
►
like interpersonal communication and ask me for a summary,
02:14:20
◼
►
it looks great in a demo, like, look, it's saving me time.
02:14:23
◼
►
It's like having an executive assistant.
02:14:24
◼
►
But if your executive assistant forgot to mention
02:14:26
◼
►
you had to pick up your kid, you fire them.
02:14:28
◼
►
Like, you know what I mean?
02:14:29
◼
►
Or you'd have a talk with them at least.
02:14:30
◼
►
It's like, this is the job.
02:14:32
◼
►
Then the AI thing does it.
02:14:33
◼
►
You have no one to blame but yourself
02:14:35
◼
►
because you believed it.
02:14:36
◼
►
And it turns out that that was consequential enough
02:14:38
◼
►
that now your hobby tinkering with this little thing
02:14:42
◼
►
versus how much benefit is it actually giving you
02:14:45
◼
►
in your life, like, you love it when it comes together
02:14:47
◼
►
and you feel like you're in the future when it's summarized.
02:14:48
◼
►
But that one time you forget to pick up your kid,
02:14:50
◼
►
you're never gonna use that summary thing again.
02:14:53
◼
►
Or if you do, you're gonna use a summary
02:14:54
◼
►
and then take out your phone to confirm
02:14:56
◼
►
and read every message?
02:14:57
◼
►
What's the point of that?
02:14:58
◼
►
- Yeah, and if anything, like, this,
02:15:00
◼
►
I think this just shows, like, the leaps and bounds
02:15:04
◼
►
they had to jump through to avoid having a screen
02:15:09
◼
►
just shows how good screens are.
02:15:12
◼
►
All the different ways this doesn't work,
02:15:15
◼
►
all the different conditions this doesn't work in.
02:15:17
◼
►
Like, there's, like somebody in the chat,
02:15:20
◼
►
David Shaw and Repoman27 just posted,
02:15:24
◼
►
the operating temperature range is only 41
02:15:26
◼
►
to 95 degrees Fahrenheit.
02:15:27
◼
►
So, like, if you're in a really cold place
02:15:29
◼
►
or a really hot place, like, nope, won't work.
02:15:31
◼
►
- Really cold is lower than 41?
02:15:33
◼
►
I guess you have to wear it inside your jacket
02:15:35
◼
►
if you live in any place that has winter.
02:15:37
◼
►
- Right, so you can't use it when you're outside
02:15:39
◼
►
wearing a jacket, really.
02:15:40
◼
►
It's gonna be covered up anyway.
02:15:41
◼
►
But even if you move it to the outside of your jacket
02:15:43
◼
►
every time you put your jacket on.
02:15:45
◼
►
- It's pretty solid.
02:15:45
◼
►
- Yeah, it's gonna freeze.
02:15:47
◼
►
On their own site, is AI pin waterproof?
02:15:50
◼
►
No, basically, it's a long answer.
02:15:51
◼
►
The summary, no.
02:15:52
◼
►
- It doesn't rain in California, so you're fine.
02:15:53
◼
►
- Right, so you can't use it if it's raining.
02:15:56
◼
►
Like, there are all these different conditions.
02:15:57
◼
►
It's like, okay, what if it was a screen in your pocket,
02:16:00
◼
►
like a phone?
02:16:01
◼
►
Well, it turns out those are really good.
02:16:04
◼
►
And you can use a screen that lives in your pocket
02:16:06
◼
►
or purse or bag or whatever.
02:16:08
◼
►
You can use that in so many more places and contexts
02:16:13
◼
►
and conditions than you can use something like this.
02:16:16
◼
►
And that's why it has no chance.
02:16:19
◼
►
Like, even if people hated their phones,
02:16:21
◼
►
which they very much don't, but even if, for some reason,
02:16:25
◼
►
you could buy into the narrative that there's lots of people
02:16:27
◼
►
who wanna spend less time on their phones out there,
02:16:30
◼
►
there aren't, but again, even if people hated their phones,
02:16:34
◼
►
the versatility of screens that are handheld,
02:16:39
◼
►
that fit in your pocket, and that you can pick up
02:16:41
◼
►
and take out in a split second whenever you want to,
02:16:45
◼
►
that versatility overpowers everything else here.
02:16:48
◼
►
That's like, you can't use the AI pin in the cold,
02:16:52
◼
►
in the hot, in the rain, when wearing a jacket,
02:16:55
◼
►
when wearing a light shirt, like, when somewhere
02:16:59
◼
►
where it would be visibly obtrusive
02:17:01
◼
►
or draw too much attention to you.
02:17:04
◼
►
You can't use it in a place where you can't use your voice.
02:17:07
◼
►
Maybe you are somewhere where you have to be quiet,
02:17:09
◼
►
you know, in certain contexts where you have to be quiet.
02:17:13
◼
►
People have those all over their lives.
02:17:15
◼
►
Screens work in so many more places and contexts,
02:17:20
◼
►
and so while I understand, like, again,
02:17:25
◼
►
I'm glad they're trying stuff,
02:17:26
◼
►
I'm glad people out there are making cool gadgets.
02:17:28
◼
►
It's fun, but don't bet against the smartphone,
02:17:33
◼
►
especially so directly against the smartphone.
02:17:36
◼
►
You will lose every time.
02:17:39
◼
►
Screens are awesome.
02:17:40
◼
►
There's a reason we have them.
02:17:42
◼
►
And projecting a laser screen into your hand
02:17:45
◼
►
that you have to tilt and gesture in weird ways to use,
02:17:48
◼
►
that's not better.
02:17:49
◼
►
Like, when you see the laser screen, they blew it.
02:17:51
◼
►
Like, that's--
02:17:53
◼
►
- Even on the Rumpley demo hand, it's like,
02:17:55
◼
►
oh, I see something on my hand.
02:17:56
◼
►
I can barely tell what anything is.
02:17:57
◼
►
The hand's too wrinkly and rumply, yeah.
02:18:00
◼
►
- What if you just put a phone into that hand?
02:18:03
◼
►
Then it's so much more useful!
02:18:04
◼
►
- That's what you're looking at.
02:18:06
◼
►
Yeah, the hardware problems, like, could be solved
02:18:08
◼
►
if the company had a good enough product
02:18:09
◼
►
that they could iterate on the technology and so on.
02:18:12
◼
►
But, like, it feels like this entire product hinges on,
02:18:17
◼
►
as we pointed out last show,
02:18:18
◼
►
the thing that this company is not actually really making,
02:18:20
◼
►
which is the quote-unquote AI part of it.
02:18:23
◼
►
And we all know that that part of it
02:18:26
◼
►
doesn't work as well as they would like.
02:18:27
◼
►
Imagine if this thing, you'd buy this thing
02:18:29
◼
►
for the same price and pay the same monthly fee.
02:18:32
◼
►
And every time you tapped it,
02:18:33
◼
►
it was like Amazon Mechanical Turk
02:18:34
◼
►
and there was a person there
02:18:35
◼
►
who was your own human personal assistant.
02:18:38
◼
►
If you could get a human personal assistant
02:18:39
◼
►
to be on call 24 hours a day for $24 a month,
02:18:43
◼
►
that would be a great deal.
02:18:44
◼
►
And that is the dream of this.
02:18:46
◼
►
And you'd say, "Oh, but the hardware's bad
02:18:47
◼
►
and it's not waterproof and it's this and it's that."
02:18:49
◼
►
I'd be like, "No, $24 a month and I tap this thing
02:18:51
◼
►
and I can literally ask it to do anything
02:18:52
◼
►
and it does it for me."
02:18:54
◼
►
Summarize my text messages and it tells me
02:18:56
◼
►
and it's a person, so it gets it right.
02:18:58
◼
►
You know what I mean?
02:18:58
◼
►
Like, that would be a great product.
02:19:00
◼
►
And if they had that product, people would pay for it.
02:19:03
◼
►
And then the next version would be better
02:19:04
◼
►
and the next version would be better.
02:19:05
◼
►
And you'd be like,
02:19:06
◼
►
"I don't need to see anything on a screen.
02:19:07
◼
►
I just ask my little assistant and it tells me everything.
02:19:10
◼
►
Why do I need to see anything on a screen, right?
02:19:12
◼
►
I can whisper real low if I'm in a library
02:19:14
◼
►
and they can hear me because of these amazing microphones."
02:19:16
◼
►
But they don't have a human at the other end of that thing.
02:19:19
◼
►
They have whatever quote unquote AI thing they're using,
02:19:24
◼
►
which is useful in lots of other contexts
02:19:26
◼
►
and may be useful in some of the contexts
02:19:28
◼
►
they want to use that,
02:19:29
◼
►
but not useful enough to make up for all their other feelings.
02:19:32
◼
►
So they're never gonna get to the point
02:19:33
◼
►
where they can iterate on this hardware, right?
02:19:36
◼
►
And, you know, again,
02:19:37
◼
►
they don't even really make the AI part of that.
02:19:40
◼
►
They're just piggybacking on a technology
02:19:42
◼
►
that other people are innovating.
02:19:43
◼
►
So I wouldn't trust this company
02:19:46
◼
►
to continue to push to the forefront
02:19:47
◼
►
of making that part smarter and better,
02:19:50
◼
►
because that's not their core competency.
02:19:52
◼
►
Their core competency is apparently this idea of,
02:19:55
◼
►
you know, let's not be on screens as much
02:19:56
◼
►
and let's use a badge type thing,
02:19:58
◼
►
and the hardware that they've made
02:19:59
◼
►
and, you know, the software stack that it runs on.
02:20:01
◼
►
And the hubris to believe that,
02:20:04
◼
►
okay, the phone platforms that dominate our lives
02:20:07
◼
►
are so closed that we can't build the product we want,
02:20:10
◼
►
so we're gonna do it all ourselves.
02:20:12
◼
►
And I admire that.
02:20:14
◼
►
I admire the attempt to do that.
02:20:16
◼
►
It's one of the reasons I admire Lucid,
02:20:17
◼
►
because they did so much stuff themselves,
02:20:19
◼
►
but Lucid actually pulled it off,
02:20:20
◼
►
and this company, I think, has not.
02:20:22
◼
►
- Well, 'cause Lucid was making so many people want.
02:20:25
◼
►
- Yeah, but they didn't choose
02:20:26
◼
►
to do so many things themselves.
02:20:27
◼
►
Like, oh, you're gonna make your own drivetrain?
02:20:29
◼
►
You're gonna make your own?
02:20:30
◼
►
Like, why would you do that?
02:20:31
◼
►
We can do, all the other EV companies did.
02:20:33
◼
►
I mean, you're not just gonna buy parts from somebody else
02:20:35
◼
►
and assemble them?
02:20:36
◼
►
Like, no, we're gonna build all this stuff ourselves.
02:20:38
◼
►
It's like, boy, that seems really hard.
02:20:40
◼
►
It is, and most companies can't do it,
02:20:42
◼
►
but the ones that do, it's very impressive.
02:20:43
◼
►
And this company, you know, AI was,
02:20:46
◼
►
Humane was forced to do this,
02:20:47
◼
►
because they can't build on any of the platforms
02:20:50
◼
►
that it's natural for them to build on.
02:20:51
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So it's sad.
02:20:53
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It really, like, as much as I think this product
02:20:55
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is not, you know, gonna do anything in the market,
02:20:59
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I wish that it was possible to make a good version
02:21:02
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of this product on any of the dominant platforms today
02:21:05
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that would be appropriate, you know,
02:21:07
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iPad OS, iOS, Android, right?
02:21:09
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But it's just not.
02:21:10
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Those companies don't, if they don't wanna make it,
02:21:12
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they don't wanna let you make it,
02:21:13
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and that is the real shame of this.
02:21:15
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- Yeah, agreed, and again, like,
02:21:16
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I don't, this is a bad idea for so many reasons.
02:21:20
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Like, your Lucid analogy, it's like if Lucid was like,
02:21:23
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hey, why don't you give up your car
02:21:25
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and switch to a hot air balloon?
02:21:27
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Like, well, okay, I mean, that's gonna be a tough sell
02:21:31
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for most people.
02:21:32
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- Yeah, we would've made a car,
02:21:33
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but we're not allowed to be on the roads,
02:21:35
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because the company that owns the roads won't let us.
02:21:37
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But we think hot air balloons
02:21:38
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are actually better than cars.
02:21:39
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- Yeah, don't you hate your car?
02:21:41
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How about something that's less capable and less convenient,
02:21:44
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and you can operate in less conditions?
02:21:45
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Great, how about a hot air balloon? (laughs)
02:21:48
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Oh, God, anyway.
02:21:50
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But yeah, you know, you're right,
02:21:50
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and it's ultimately like the inability
02:21:53
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for products like this to really have a fair shot
02:21:58
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is a tragedy of the modern tech lock-in ecosystem.
02:22:03
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And there's no telling how much innovation out there
02:22:08
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we could have today,
02:22:09
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and that could be making our lives better
02:22:11
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and could be making the world better,
02:22:13
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if not for Apple and Google's massive platform lock-in
02:22:17
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on their modern platforms that basically make it impossible.
02:22:20
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- Yeah, if anything, like a company that had this idea
02:22:22
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could fail much faster,
02:22:24
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because they wouldn't have to build everything,
02:22:26
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all the operating system and platform stuff.
02:22:29
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They could just piggyback, build the,
02:22:31
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you know, you make an app on your phone
02:22:32
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and build a little bit of the hardware
02:22:34
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and have them integrated,
02:22:35
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and just do the part that you care about.
02:22:37
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They can't do that,
02:22:38
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because you can't get that kind of deep integration
02:22:41
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with iOS, but if they could,
02:22:42
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boy, they would save a lot of time,
02:22:44
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and they would be able to come up with their product,
02:22:45
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and they would flop in the market,
02:22:46
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'cause nobody wants it in the AI systems that you don't.
02:22:48
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And it would save everybody a lot of money.
02:22:51
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But they had to build so much stuff
02:22:53
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and go this whole route of like,
02:22:55
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we are our own thing with our own phone number
02:22:57
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and our own operating system and our own lack of apps
02:23:00
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or whatever they were pitching.
02:23:01
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Like, we have experiences, not apps.
02:23:02
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It's like, you have to build all of that
02:23:04
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for what's probably gonna turn out to be,
02:23:06
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if not a bad idea, then at the very least,
02:23:08
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an idea that is too ahead of its time,
02:23:10
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because the tech is just not ready for it yet.