ATP

00:00:00 ◼   ► By the way, I'm sorry I'm a little bit hoarse tonight, and I wish I had a good reason, like

00:00:06 ◼   ► being sick or having to shout to save a child or something.

00:00:11 ◼   ► Shouting to save children, is that how it works now?

00:00:14 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:00:15 ◼   ► The truth is that I am alone in my house tonight, and therefore a lot of singing has occurred.

00:00:22 ◼   ► And I regret to inform you that I have neither the singing range of Paul Simon nor Art Garfunkel.

00:00:28 ◼   ► That's the real reason why I sound slightly hoarse tonight.

00:00:31 ◼   ► I was gonna say, if you were listening to Phish, how are you doing any singing?

00:00:35 ◼   ► Right?

00:00:36 ◼   ► I also listen to other music sometimes.

00:00:39 ◼   ► I mean, not a lot, if I'm honest.

00:00:41 ◼   ► Sometimes.

00:00:42 ◼   ► Oh man, it's funny to me how you tactically deploy your executive assistant for media

00:00:50 ◼   ► acquisition purposes.

00:00:51 ◼   ► Oh yeah, whenever I want to pirate anything, I always ask Casey how to do it, because I

00:00:56 ◼   ► haven't pirated things en masse in a very long time, like since high school really.

00:01:02 ◼   ► So all the modern ways to do it, I don't really know about them, and I'm certainly

00:01:06 ◼   ► not set up for them.

00:01:08 ◼   ► So I always have to ask my other friends, like, "Hey, there's this concert I want

00:01:12 ◼   ► to download, and it's only letting me do a video on demand, how do I download it?"

00:01:17 ◼   ► Indeed.

00:01:18 ◼   ► But yeah, I got a text message out of the blue saying, "Hey, there's this time-limited

00:01:24 ◼   ► thing I really want to download, what can I do?"

00:01:27 ◼   ► And I gave some pointers as to hypothetical things that one could try, but we would never

00:01:33 ◼   ► do.

00:01:34 ◼   ► No, of course not.

00:01:35 ◼   ► But you could try them.

00:01:36 ◼   ► And it turns out that you didn't need my help, because you found it by a mechanism

00:01:40 ◼   ► all your own.

00:01:41 ◼   ► Well, someone else sent it to me, basically.

00:01:44 ◼   ► But it's interesting, in the history of things that can be shown in a web browser,

00:01:52 ◼   ► typically there were tools that were pretty reliably able to download those things.

00:01:57 ◼   ► Because at some level it would be a bunch of MPEG4 files in a series on a server, in

00:02:02 ◼   ► a playlist, or something like that.

00:02:04 ◼   ► But now there appears to be pretty widespread use of whatever kind of DRM, I think maybe

00:02:10 ◼   ► Widevine is one of them, but whatever kind of DRM exists now on HLS streams, it seems

00:02:16 ◼   ► like it's everywhere now.

00:02:17 ◼   ► And so all the tools like YouTube DL or YT DLP or whatever, all these tools basically

00:02:23 ◼   ► don't work anymore on a lot of paid video services, because they all use this DRM.

00:02:29 ◼   ► I'm not a fan of DRM as a technologist, so that irritates me on a lot of levels.

00:02:34 ◼   ► But I'm also just kind of surprised that none of these tools have caught up yet.

00:02:38 ◼   ► It seems like, I don't know how this stuff works these days, I'm sure there's a lot

00:02:42 ◼   ► of OS level integrations, but somehow every web browser, including stuff like Firefox

00:02:47 ◼   ► like they can all play the DRM streams just fine.

00:02:52 ◼   ► And screen recording software can, like that is still loophole, you can still like run

00:02:57 ◼   ► a screen recording, not with all apps, like QuickTime Player will just give you like a

00:03:01 ◼   ► black square, but some apps will just record the screen in some way that includes the content.

00:03:07 ◼   ► So you can do it that way, which is terrible to do I know, but like I'm kind of amazed

00:03:12 ◼   ► that all these tools are not able to break this DRM for something that is common enough

00:03:17 ◼   ► that it can play in every web browser.

00:03:19 ◼   ► But I don't know.

00:03:20 ◼   ► We live in kind of a sad time that there's just that much DRM everywhere in our computing

00:03:24 ◼   ► lives now and we don't even like blink an eye, it's just that there's considered normal.

00:03:28 ◼   ► It's kind of sad.

00:03:29 ◼   ► Are you talking about fish stuff?

00:03:30 ◼   ► I thought all that was free, man.

00:03:34 ◼   ► No it's not.

00:03:35 ◼   ► And I don't need it to be free, like I buy the MP3, like you can buy audio downloads

00:03:40 ◼   ► that are all DRM free.

00:03:41 ◼   ► That's what I was saying, like you pay the money and you get a bunch of files but they're

00:03:44 ◼   ► DRM free.

00:03:45 ◼   ► That's audio only though.

00:03:46 ◼   ► So if you want to see the video streams, you pay per show something like 40 bucks and then

00:03:52 ◼   ► you can watch the stream for like 48 hours and or live.

00:03:56 ◼   ► But then the real problem is you can't buy it afterwards.

00:04:00 ◼   ► So you can watch it for only the 48 hours after the concert has occurred, but if you

00:04:05 ◼   ► want to watch it next week or next year, you just can't.

00:04:08 ◼   ► You can't rebuy it.

00:04:09 ◼   ► There's no way to watch it.

00:04:10 ◼   ► It's just gone.

00:04:12 ◼   ► And it was, this Fish New Year show was a really important show.

00:04:17 ◼   ► It was important, wasn't it?

00:04:18 ◼   ► Okay, explain yourself.

00:04:20 ◼   ► Use more words.

00:04:21 ◼   ► Why was this an important show?

00:04:22 ◼   ► I'm not even going to try to explain, but basically there was a ton of fan service,

00:04:28 ◼   ► references that go back 30 years in the band that were brought together in a big way.

00:04:33 ◼   ► And so it was a very important show for Fish fans.

00:04:36 ◼   ► And so I wanted to really make sure, like I really want to have a copy of this.

00:04:41 ◼   ► Because look, I don't know what the band's archival situation is.

00:04:44 ◼   ► I assume that they are saving all of their videos and at some point in the future might

00:04:49 ◼   ► make them available in some way, maybe I hope, but I don't want to rely on maybe I hope for

00:04:54 ◼   ► like a really important concert for my favorite band of my life.

00:04:57 ◼   ► Like I want to actually have it.

00:04:59 ◼   ► This is where the community comes in though.

00:05:01 ◼   ► Like wouldn't it, wouldn't, couldn't you just rely on the fact that this is a popular

00:05:04 ◼   ► band and you don't have to do this.

00:05:05 ◼   ► All you gotta do is wait for the people who already know how to do this to upload the

00:05:08 ◼   ► stream that they ripped from the thing?

00:05:10 ◼   ► Yeah, but upload it where?

00:05:11 ◼   ► That's the problem.

00:05:12 ◼   ► Like I don't know all the places that people go now.

00:05:14 ◼   ► I really hope Adam can help you in your old age.

00:05:17 ◼   ► I know he's going to have to.

00:05:18 ◼   ► He's right now Casey is my video piracy, you know, assistant.

00:05:22 ◼   ► Eventually Adam will take over and help both of us.

00:05:26 ◼   ► But we were not there yet.

00:05:28 ◼   ► It's not piracy if you paid for it and you're just time shifting it.

00:05:31 ◼   ► I think we already had several court cases about that and the VCR was allowed to exist.

00:05:34 ◼   ► So if you pay for something like you pay for cable television and they air it and send

00:05:37 ◼   ► it to you and you record it on a device, I know you've got the DMCA with the, you're

00:05:41 ◼   ► not supposed to crack encryption, blah, blah, blah.

00:05:43 ◼   ► But I feel like you're at least ethically, if not legally in the clear here.

00:05:47 ◼   ► Well I just, I think it's a little questionable and we'll get to copyright stuff later actually,

00:05:51 ◼   ► but I think it's a little questionable because like I'm not paying 40 bucks to own it forever.

00:05:54 ◼   ► I'm paying 40 bucks to watch it once.

00:05:56 ◼   ► I know, but it's the same thing when you pay for cable.

00:05:58 ◼   ► You're not paying to own all those shows that are broadcast to your house forever, but you

00:06:02 ◼   ► do pay the cable company to send you video.

00:06:05 ◼   ► And if you have a device in your home that records that video for time shifting purposes,

00:06:09 ◼   ► like a video cassette recorder, that turns out to be legal according to all the court

00:06:14 ◼   ► cases.

00:06:15 ◼   ► The only wrinkle in this entire scheme is now we have a thing called DRM that stops

00:06:18 ◼   ► you from recording it and because of the DMCA, it's illegal for you to try to crack DRM.

00:06:23 ◼   ► And I think there is no distinction between paying for cable to be broadcast in your house

00:06:28 ◼   ► and then time shifting with VCR and then paying for a video of a concert to be streamed into

00:06:32 ◼   ► your house and then time shifting it with FM pay.

00:06:35 ◼   ► The only difference is that stupid law that says you're not allowed to even try to crack

00:06:38 ◼   ► encryption, which is incredibly stupid and we should get rid of, but it is what it is.

00:06:42 ◼   ► I mean, there's a whole lot of this that's stupid, but I don't think that necessarily

00:06:46 ◼   ► would hold up to legal scrutiny.

00:06:47 ◼   ► No, no, because of the DMCA, because it's illegal to try to crack encryption.

00:06:52 ◼   ► But aside from that one thing, it is exactly the same as the time shifting with a VCR case

00:06:57 ◼   ► because in both cases, like, well, you just paid to have it sent to your house once.

00:07:01 ◼   ► You didn't pay to keep it forever.

00:07:02 ◼   ► But the courts found, no, if you have a device that can record it, it's yours.

00:07:08 ◼   ► Is that really what the decision is?

00:07:10 ◼   ► I don't know enough about it.

00:07:11 ◼   ► Is that really?

00:07:12 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:07:13 ◼   ► The whole point was like, you can't have a video cassette recorder in your house because

00:07:14 ◼   ► then when we air Star Wars on ABC and you record it, no, you have a copy of Star Wars

00:07:17 ◼   ► and you didn't pay for that.

00:07:19 ◼   ► And the decision was you're allowed to do that.

00:07:22 ◼   ► You're not allowed to resell it.

00:07:23 ◼   ► You're not allowed to pay, sell tickets to it or whatever, but you were allowed to time

00:07:26 ◼   ► shift.

00:07:27 ◼   ► It was called time shifting.

00:07:28 ◼   ► You take something that aired and you put it on some storage medium so you can watch

00:07:31 ◼   ► it at a different time.

00:07:33 ◼   ► And the only legal thing stopping you now is they made a law that says, okay, if we

00:07:36 ◼   ► put some magic pixie dust DRM on this, even if it's trivially easy to crack, if you do

00:07:40 ◼   ► that, you're breaking the law.

00:07:41 ◼   ► That's why you had the, you know, the DCSS t-shirts with the parole code on it.

00:07:45 ◼   ► That was, you know, illegal and all that crap.

00:07:46 ◼   ► The one prime number that broke the key or whatever.

00:07:49 ◼   ► Yeah, it's absurd.

00:07:50 ◼   ► But that's, that is the legal system.

00:07:52 ◼   ► That's why I said ethically, I think you're in the clear, if not legally.

00:07:55 ◼   ► I wonder if like if a screen recording method might actually sorta not be a DMCA.

00:08:03 ◼   ► I don't know because you didn't try to crack the encryption probably.

00:08:06 ◼   ► But you could argue like the software might've cracked it even though it's not, it's not,

00:08:09 ◼   ► it's not compliant or whatever, but it's just recording the screen content.

00:08:12 ◼   ► So like that's not, yeah, I think that's probably fine because I think that is, it's like the

00:08:15 ◼   ► analog loophole.

00:08:16 ◼   ► Remember that whole thing of like, Oh, the way to record it is, you know, you're not

00:08:20 ◼   ► cracking the encryption on the DVD.

00:08:22 ◼   ► You're just playing the DVD over a, an analog video cable and intercepting it there.

00:08:27 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:08:28 ◼   ► I mean, and even, I mean, all of the, um, you know, machinations now about like how

00:08:34 ◼   ► having these secure video paths with that are supported by the hardware and HDMI and

00:08:38 ◼   ► everything and, and try to, trying to ensure DRM so that you can't do stuff like screen

00:08:43 ◼   ► recording or just atmi capture of protected content or take a screenshot because you want

00:08:47 ◼   ► to tweet something funny about a TV show.

00:08:49 ◼   ► Oh, the worst.

00:08:50 ◼   ► I know.

00:08:51 ◼   ► I mean, I frankly, I don't actually know how certain screen recording methods somehow get

00:08:55 ◼   ► around it and others don't.

00:08:57 ◼   ► That's, I'm glad they do.

00:08:59 ◼   ► But like the amount of grief this causes legitimate users all the time.

00:09:04 ◼   ► Like I can't tell you how many times I've like, you know, been, you know, it may be

00:09:07 ◼   ► like traveling and trying to output something over HDMI to a TV or something and some part

00:09:12 ◼   ► of the chain doesn't fit the DRM standards.

00:09:14 ◼   ► And so it like, it just refuses.

00:09:16 ◼   ► And I guess I can't watch this movie that I just, that I paid for, like stream from

00:09:20 ◼   ► my laptop onto the hotel TV or whatever.

00:09:22 ◼   ► Like it's, it's so annoying.

00:09:23 ◼   ► I hate DRM so much.

00:09:25 ◼   ► It's dumb because as we all know, none of that stuff actually stops this stuff from

00:09:28 ◼   ► being available illegally.

00:09:30 ◼   ► All it does is frustrate legitimate users.

00:09:32 ◼   ► We I think we talked about this just a couple months ago cause I just ran across this recently,

00:09:36 ◼   ► but there is a website, a Dave Matthews Band fan website where it has a Q and A with the

00:09:40 ◼   ► crew.

00:09:41 ◼   ► Now this very, this very well may be very, very old, but as somebody asked, you have

00:09:45 ◼   ► listed a 24 track hard disk recorder under the recording equipment, but 39 inputs to

00:09:48 ◼   ► the board.

00:09:49 ◼   ► How many mixed channels are record on multiple 24 track recorders, blah, blah, blah, blah,

00:09:53 ◼   ► blah.

00:09:54 ◼   ► The answer is we actually have eight task cam 24 or 24 three pairs working in main and

00:09:58 ◼   ► backup modes with two spares.

00:10:00 ◼   ► Forty six tracks are recorded every day, which includes the band's input list plus several

00:10:03 ◼   ► audience mics and other inputs.

00:10:05 ◼   ► The hard drives get sent back to an archivist in Charlottesville who is then dumps each

00:10:08 ◼   ► track to a separate CDR for permanent storage in a vault.

00:10:12 ◼   ► Each show will generate about 138 CDRs and that's audio.

00:10:16 ◼   ► That's not even video.

00:10:17 ◼   ► Did you discuss this already and did we freak out about CDRs?

00:10:21 ◼   ► We did indeed.

00:10:22 ◼   ► Yeah, they better be using M discs.

00:10:23 ◼   ► Yeah, cause I really think putting them on a CDR and then putting them in a vault are

00:10:28 ◼   ► two sentiments that are a little bit at odds with each other.

00:10:30 ◼   ► I totally agree with you.

00:10:32 ◼   ► But my point is, you know, Marco had justifiably asked, you know, is this a flash in the pan?

00:10:36 ◼   ► You know, this, this video recording, does fish keep a copy of this video recording or

00:10:40 ◼   ► is this a one and done?

00:10:41 ◼   ► I mean, I assume someone is archiving all this stuff.

00:10:44 ◼   ► I hope.

00:10:45 ◼   ► Agreed.

00:10:46 ◼   ► Like they don't, they don't usually release archival videos.

00:10:49 ◼   ► Like they release archival audio sometimes.

00:10:51 ◼   ► I don't think they tend to release archival video much if at all.

00:10:54 ◼   ► So I don't know.

00:10:57 ◼   ► That's why like it's a little unnerving and that's why I, you know, and I think I have

00:11:01 ◼   ► a lot of, I think a lot, a lot of sympathy from the two of you on this.

00:11:04 ◼   ► I want to be a digital pack rat for stuff that I can't just re like easily just get

00:11:09 ◼   ► off the internet again.

00:11:10 ◼   ► Like stuff that's really important to me.

00:11:12 ◼   ► You know, I actually want to have my own copy because we all know from the, from the tech

00:11:17 ◼   ► world, everything out there that's like, especially DRM stuff through streaming services or whatever,

00:11:21 ◼   ► it's all so temporary.

00:11:23 ◼   ► You think you own it even when like when you buy it and you think you quote own it, then

00:11:27 ◼   ► you know, Sony pulls a fast one or something like that story and like you, then it's just

00:11:31 ◼   ► gone.

00:11:32 ◼   ► The stuff you quote bought is gone or unavailable or whatever.

00:11:34 ◼   ► Like so the, and that stuff annoys me so much.

00:11:37 ◼   ► I think we live in a time where a huge amount of modern culture in the form of both media

00:11:45 ◼   ► and also like software and games and everything like that, a huge amount of it is going to

00:11:50 ◼   ► be basically inaccessible to historians in the future because of, you know, technological

00:11:56 ◼   ► means or encryption or, you know, SSL breaking or whatever.

00:12:00 ◼   ► Like there's so many things that the previous eras of media that we've had decades ago,

00:12:06 ◼   ► we can all still access those today, but the stuff that we are making and using and, you

00:12:11 ◼   ► know, enjoying today, I think we're going to have a very hard time, you know, re enjoying

00:12:16 ◼   ► or re experiencing that in 20 years.

00:12:19 ◼   ► Yeah, I think it's probably mostly the trend line is upward still because all the stuff

00:12:23 ◼   ► before recorded medium is totally lost.

00:12:25 ◼   ► People saying, and there was nothing to record them on for most of human history.

00:12:29 ◼   ► And then we had this period where it was recorded with no DRM and now we have recorded with

00:12:32 ◼   ► DRM, but we have so much more storage now.

00:12:34 ◼   ► I think we're saving so much more stuff.

00:12:36 ◼   ► It's going to be a lot easier for historians to find that old stuff.

00:12:41 ◼   ► Even if, I mean, maybe we're not saving a DRM encrypted, but even if they are, it will

00:12:45 ◼   ► be eventually trivial to break that DRM encryption.

00:12:48 ◼   ► So I think we're doing better overall, but there is definitely a hiccup in the whole

00:12:52 ◼   ► introduction of DRM that's going to cause some headaches, but it's still better than

00:12:55 ◼   ► wax cylinders and it's still way better than no way to record performances at all.

00:13:02 ◼   ► Let's do some follow up.

00:13:03 ◼   ► And we have a paper about Apple's on device, LLM, LLM in a flash, efficient large language

00:13:09 ◼   ► model inference with limited memory.

00:13:11 ◼   ► Can you tell me about this please, John?

00:13:13 ◼   ► I think it was last episode we were talking about asking a TP question about what we thought

00:13:18 ◼   ► Apple would do to run a LM stuff on device with wimpy devices like the home pod.

00:13:24 ◼   ► And we referenced this alluded to, I alluded to this paper, but we didn't have a link to

00:13:29 ◼   ► it.

00:13:30 ◼   ► So now we will on the show notes.

00:13:31 ◼   ► This is a summary from someone on threads.

00:13:34 ◼   ► It says Apple has proposed an inference cost model that coordinates with the behavior of

00:13:37 ◼   ► flash memory usage, guiding optimization in two key areas, reducing the amount of data

00:13:42 ◼   ► transferred from flash memory and reading data in larger, more continuous blocks.

00:13:46 ◼   ► These methods collectively enable running models up to twice the size of available DRAM

00:13:50 ◼   ► with 4X to 5X and 20X to 25X increase in inference speed compared to naive loading approaches

00:13:56 ◼   ► in CPU and GPU respectively.

00:13:58 ◼   ► So this is, you can read the paper to see, but it's like, hey, Apple has a bunch of devices

00:14:02 ◼   ► that have limited DRAM and if you wanted to run one of those better models, then you can't

00:14:08 ◼   ► fit it in DRAM.

00:14:09 ◼   ► Is there a way you can get reasonable forms out of it while essentially overflowing your

00:14:13 ◼   ► RAM and using flash as a backing store?

00:14:16 ◼   ► And they have some techniques to speed that up.

00:14:18 ◼   ► And that is extremely relevant to pretty much everything that Apple makes with the exception

00:14:22 ◼   ► of Macs where you are probably going to be RAM limited.

00:14:25 ◼   ► And a lot of these large language models, I know the first L is for large, but you can

00:14:29 ◼   ► size them.

00:14:30 ◼   ► You can even, in a lot of the cases, take a really big honking model that takes a huge

00:14:34 ◼   ► amount of resources and take that exact model and cut it down in some way, like without

00:14:39 ◼   ► like making a new model to size it, to fit within whatever your constraints are.

00:14:43 ◼   ► And it sounds like this approach in this paper will let Apple use models a little bit bigger

00:14:47 ◼   ► than they otherwise would be able to on their wimpy hardware.

00:14:51 ◼   ► Apple's also exploring AI deals with news publishers.

00:14:54 ◼   ► This was in the New York Times.

00:14:55 ◼   ► Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations

00:14:59 ◼   ► seeking permission to use their material in the company's development of generative artificial

00:15:03 ◼   ► intelligence systems.

00:15:05 ◼   ► According to four people familiar with the discussions, the technology giant has floated

00:15:08 ◼   ► multi-year deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles,

00:15:12 ◼   ► said the people with knowledge of talks.

00:15:14 ◼   ► For the record, Apple, for 10% of that, for a mere $5 million, you are welcome to use

00:15:19 ◼   ► caseylist.com in its entirety in training your model.

00:15:22 ◼   ► I thought you were going to offer up the ATP archives.

00:15:24 ◼   ► I think we need to collectively negotiate with Apple for those, even though they're

00:15:28 ◼   ► already publicly available.

00:15:29 ◼   ► We may have started at a disadvantage in this negotiation already.

00:15:33 ◼   ► Fair.

00:15:34 ◼   ► But have your people call our people.

00:15:35 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:15:36 ◼   ► So this is something that a few companies are doing.

00:15:39 ◼   ► Adobe is the other one that comes to mind where they have a bunch of generative AI stuff

00:15:43 ◼   ► in the latest version of Photoshop that I believe Adobe has claimed, hey, we trained

00:15:48 ◼   ► all of our models on images that we own or have the rights to.

00:15:53 ◼   ► So they're essentially legally in the clear.

00:15:55 ◼   ► If it's not Adobe and it's actually some other stock photo company, I forget.

00:15:59 ◼   ► But anyway, companies are doing this where they're like, we want to be able to provide

00:16:02 ◼   ► a service to our customers with no doubt, no legal doubt about however this whole court

00:16:07 ◼   ► stuff comes out with the AI training.

00:16:09 ◼   ► It's like we trained our models on stuff that we own because some companies own a large

00:16:13 ◼   ► volume of images, for example, like a stock photo company or whatever.

00:16:16 ◼   ► It might be the stock photo company I'm thinking of it.

00:16:19 ◼   ► Not a, what is it called?

00:16:20 ◼   ► Shutter stock or maybe it's Getty images.

00:16:23 ◼   ► They're the big one.

00:16:24 ◼   ► Getty images.

00:16:25 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:16:26 ◼   ► Anyway, um, Apple, this is totally an Apple move to say we can solve this problem with

00:16:30 ◼   ► money.

00:16:31 ◼   ► If there's any kind of questions about the legality, uh, how about we just give people

00:16:35 ◼   ► millions of dollars in exchange for them letting us train their, uh, trade our AI model on

00:16:42 ◼   ► their content.

00:16:44 ◼   ► The New York times, speaking of is suing open AI and Microsoft for copyright infringement.

00:16:48 ◼   ► The New York times assuming open AI and Microsoft for copyright infringement, claiming the two

00:16:52 ◼   ► companies built their AI models by copying and using millions of the publications articles

00:16:56 ◼   ► and now quote unquote directly compete with its content.

00:17:00 ◼   ► As a result, as outlined in the lawsuit, the times ledges open AI and Microsoft's large

00:17:03 ◼   ► language models, which power chat, GPT and copilot can generate output that recites times

00:17:08 ◼   ► content verbatim closely summarizes it and mimics its expressive style.

00:17:12 ◼   ► This undermines and damages the times relationship with readers.

00:17:15 ◼   ► The outlet eight alleges while also depriving it of subscription licensing, licensing, advertising

00:17:20 ◼   ► and affiliate revenue.

00:17:22 ◼   ► That uh, that nicely ties in above the previous story.

00:17:25 ◼   ► Uh, if Apple is offering these people millions of dollars for the content, but Microsoft

00:17:29 ◼   ► is just taking it for free and then getting sued over it.

00:17:32 ◼   ► You can see where Apple might've thought this is a wiser move in the short term.

00:17:35 ◼   ► We've talked about this many times in the past, um, about the, whether it is, you know,

00:17:40 ◼   ► uh, ethics, morals and legalities, um, whether it is right to train a large language model

00:17:45 ◼   ► on, for example, the publicly accessible webpage is containing content of New York Times stories.

00:17:51 ◼   ► Uh, people can make arguments that it is, uh, you know, it's transformational and it's,

00:17:56 ◼   ► you know, fair use or whatever, uh, pretty legal precedent you don't want to use for

00:18:00 ◼   ► it's an entirely new thing.

00:18:01 ◼   ► We have to have a new set of laws governing or whatever, but clearly the New York Times

00:18:04 ◼   ► thinks, Hey, if you train your large language model on New York Times articles and now people

00:18:08 ◼   ► use your thing and don't ever go to the New York Times because they essentially get the

00:18:13 ◼   ► article summarized or excerpted in your thing or whatever, that's, you know, under current

00:18:19 ◼   ► law that's illegal and now we're sitting over it or whatever.

00:18:21 ◼   ► Um, as I said, then many pastimes when we discuss this, I continue to think that it

00:18:26 ◼   ► is, that it should not be legal to train a large language model on content that you don't

00:18:31 ◼   ► own, uh, because your large language model is worthless without that content.

00:18:36 ◼   ► Uh, you know, empty large language model that has not been trained on anything is worth

00:18:40 ◼   ► zero dollars.

00:18:41 ◼   ► And you can say, well, we can make this valuable by feeding it the contents of the New York

00:18:44 ◼   ► Times.

00:18:45 ◼   ► Well, uh, New York Times, you should either let you do that or you should, they should

00:18:49 ◼   ► be compensated for it or we need to figure out some other thing, but I don't think you

00:18:52 ◼   ► should just get it free just because, uh, but that's the type of thing that is going

00:18:56 ◼   ► to be hashed out in court.

00:18:58 ◼   ► And again, Apple is neatly sidestepping this by saying, I don't care whether it's legal,

00:19:01 ◼   ► not here is millions of dollars.

00:19:03 ◼   ► Can we use your articles?

00:19:04 ◼   ► Yes, no.

00:19:05 ◼   ► That is a much more straightforward arrangement of value exchange.

00:19:09 ◼   ► What is the right amount of money for that?

00:19:10 ◼   ► Is it like, you know, a penny per article or like even less or like what, you know,

00:19:15 ◼   ► how, how people who are training large language models negotiate with people who own the content

00:19:19 ◼   ► that they're being trained on.

00:19:20 ◼   ► We'll see.

00:19:21 ◼   ► There's always sort of publicly available things.

00:19:23 ◼   ► Like I think Wikipedia says you're allowed to train on it, but whether they do or not,

00:19:27 ◼   ► everybody does.

00:19:28 ◼   ► Uh, so yeah, this is entirely in a big legal gray area.

00:19:32 ◼   ► And I think Apple's approach is the right one for now and Adobe and whatever company

00:19:37 ◼   ► I can remember that's also doing the same thing.

00:19:39 ◼   ► Train on data that you own or have licensed.

00:19:42 ◼   ► And then if it turns out that, Oh, actually the courts say you're allowed to get this

00:19:46 ◼   ► for free, then don't pay them next year.

00:19:48 ◼   ► But if it turns out that, uh, the New York times wins their case and, uh, you know, gets

00:19:53 ◼   ► a millions of dollars in damages, you were always on the right side of that.

00:19:56 ◼   ► So kudos to Apple for using its money for, uh, you know, using its money wisely.

00:20:02 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:20:03 ◼   ► This is, this is a case to watch because you know, there's been so many kind of questions

00:20:08 ◼   ► about AI training, um, and its relation to copyright law and you know, is training an

00:20:15 ◼   ► AI on public material that, you know, that's owned by somebody else.

00:20:18 ◼   ► Is that copyright infringement?

00:20:21 ◼   ► I don't know if that's a clear cut argument either way.

00:20:24 ◼   ► Like it is, it's, it's definitely like a new area and you know, this is what happens with

00:20:30 ◼   ► the law over time.

00:20:31 ◼   ► Like new problems arise or new conditions or new, you know, distinctions need to be

00:20:37 ◼   ► made.

00:20:38 ◼   ► And that's what the law and the legal system is made to sort out and decide.

00:20:42 ◼   ► Um, it remains a huge open question mark of like, can you just train AI models on whatever

00:20:47 ◼   ► you want?

00:20:49 ◼   ► I still believe that that is not copyright infringement necessarily because like if you

00:20:55 ◼   ► look at, you know, the New York Times is making some, some pretty strong claims here that

00:21:00 ◼   ► you know, these LLMs that they tested were able to output Times articles verbatim.

00:21:05 ◼   ► But if you look at what kind of prompts they had to give them, the, the way it worked was

00:21:10 ◼   ► basically the New York Times would feed it like the first few paragraphs of an art of

00:21:15 ◼   ► an article and say what comes next.

00:21:17 ◼   ► And so the way LLMs work on a general, you know, a general high level overview of the

00:21:22 ◼   ► way LLMs work is basically like statistically speaking what comes next given this prompt.

00:21:27 ◼   ► And so when, when they give it a few paragraphs of a story from the New York Times verbatim

00:21:31 ◼   ► and say what comes next after this, there is probably no other statistical influence

00:21:37 ◼   ► on what the model could draw from.

00:21:39 ◼   ► So of course it's going to say, okay, well the one source I saw that contained everything

00:21:43 ◼   ► you're asking for, this was next.

00:21:45 ◼   ► I think part of that demonstration, part of the point of that demonstration is to do something

00:21:50 ◼   ► that is otherwise difficult to do, which is essentially to prove that they did train on

00:21:55 ◼   ► your data.

00:21:56 ◼   ► Because it's not like when you see an LLM, you can ask it, hey, tell me all the stuff

00:21:59 ◼   ► that you ingested.

00:22:00 ◼   ► It doesn't, it doesn't work that way.

00:22:01 ◼   ► It's, they can't answer that question.

00:22:02 ◼   ► It's not like they're trying to keep it a secret.

00:22:03 ◼   ► A large language model does not contain within it a complete exhaustive list of all the data

00:22:08 ◼   ► that it was trained on, right?

00:22:09 ◼   ► I mean, it does in sort of a smushed up fuzzy way, but not like in a literal way.

00:22:13 ◼   ► So if as part of the case, if I don't know if this is in this particular case, but if

00:22:17 ◼   ► as part of the case, the people at the LLM said, we never trained on your data.

00:22:21 ◼   ► You can pull this out and say, uh, I think it's pretty unlikely that it would produce

00:22:24 ◼   ► these verbatim, you know, seven paragraphs, right?

00:22:27 ◼   ► So there's, there's that.

00:22:29 ◼   ► And I don't know in this case, again, Microsoft could freely admit that they trained for New

00:22:31 ◼   ► York times and that's a moot point, but the language and the little summary we excerpted

00:22:36 ◼   ► from is directly trying to tie it to existing law because that's what they have to do in

00:22:39 ◼   ► a court case.

00:22:40 ◼   ► So if there are no laws directly addressing this, you're going to come and say, I think

00:22:45 ◼   ► you are in violation of these existing laws.

00:22:47 ◼   ► And so one of those is like, um, the, the whole fair use doctrine of like, is the thing

00:22:53 ◼   ► a substitute for the thing that it is taking from and like saying like a two second clip

00:22:57 ◼   ► of a movie is not a substitute for the movie.

00:22:59 ◼   ► No one is saying I wasn't going to watch the movie, but instead I'm going to watch this

00:23:01 ◼   ► two second clip.

00:23:03 ◼   ► And they're saying that these LMs directly compete with its content saying it is a substitute.

00:23:08 ◼   ► It is, it is directly competing with our stuff.

00:23:10 ◼   ► It's not just like a Google search result where you see a headline and you see like

00:23:14 ◼   ► the, a link and then like two sentences, but you have to click through to read the story.

00:23:18 ◼   ► No one is looking at that and saying, well, I felt like I've read the whole story.

00:23:21 ◼   ► Whereas here they're saying, you know, within existing copyright law, you do not fall under

00:23:26 ◼   ► this section of fair use because you are directly competing with us rather than just, you know,

00:23:31 ◼   ► being a, not being a substitute or whatever.

00:23:34 ◼   ► So we'll see if they succeed in that strategy because to your point, Marco, the existing

00:23:37 ◼   ► laws don't address this because it's a new use case, but that's when you bring a case,

00:23:41 ◼   ► you have to say, I think some existing laws you're already in violation of and we'll see

00:23:46 ◼   ► how that works out legally.

00:23:47 ◼   ► My point has always been, regardless of what the current laws say, I think it shouldn't

00:23:52 ◼   ► be legal so that, that to do what they're doing just willy nilly.

00:23:56 ◼   ► So there should be some kind of law made governing this or, and if no, if laws aren't made governing

00:24:02 ◼   ► it, then at the very least, what we'll get is precedents in court cases.

00:24:06 ◼   ► I don't like things being determined by precedents in court cases because I figured what they're

00:24:10 ◼   ► saying is, I always get it backwards, but like hard cases make bad law or something

00:24:13 ◼   ► like that where it's better to just say what you actually want to happen through legislation

00:24:18 ◼   ► and to the degree that our government can actually function, that would be the more

00:24:22 ◼   ► desirable thing.

00:24:23 ◼   ► But anytime any laws are made surrounding technology, we all kind of, you know, grit

00:24:28 ◼   ► our teeth a little bit.

00:24:29 ◼   ► So we'll see how this goes.

00:24:30 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:24:31 ◼   ► I mean, cause I don't, honestly, I don't think it's that clear cut.

00:24:34 ◼   ► You know, like their claims, you know, they say that it can recite Times Content Verbatim.

00:24:38 ◼   ► Okay.

00:24:39 ◼   ► We covered that.

00:24:40 ◼   ► Like, but there's already laws against that.

00:24:42 ◼   ► Reciting Times Content Verbatim is copyright infringement.

00:24:45 ◼   ► That's direct.

00:24:46 ◼   ► Cause it's like, this is, these are, this is a copyrighted work that we have on our

00:24:50 ◼   ► site and you are serving it over here.

00:24:53 ◼   ► We already have laws that make that part of it illegal.

00:24:55 ◼   ► They also say it closely summarizes it.

00:24:58 ◼   ► Well, who cares?

00:24:59 ◼   ► That's not illegal.

00:25:00 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:25:01 ◼   ► I'm not sure if it depends on close to summary.

00:25:03 ◼   ► I think existing laws, existing case laws probably covers cases where it's like, well,

00:25:07 ◼   ► it's not exactly verbatim.

00:25:08 ◼   ► One or two words are changed here, but I, again, I'm not, you know, I don't have

00:25:11 ◼   ► exhaustive knowledge of copyright law, but that seems like something that would have

00:25:14 ◼   ► come up before.

00:25:15 ◼   ► For example, a newspaper essentially stealing, stealing another newspaper story and reproducing

00:25:20 ◼   ► it high school student style where you change a couple of words around.

00:25:23 ◼   ► I bet there have been cases about that.

00:25:25 ◼   ► And again, in all those cases, here's the tricky bit and the part I always keep trying

00:25:28 ◼   ► to focus on.

00:25:29 ◼   ► In all existing case law, it's humans doing things like this.

00:25:33 ◼   ► Like it's a reporter at one newspaper closely summarizing an article in another newspaper

00:25:38 ◼   ► and changing the words around, right?

00:25:40 ◼   ► Whereas here it's not a human doing this.

00:25:42 ◼   ► It's humans setting a machinery into motion and the machinery spits out the New York Times

00:25:47 ◼   ► article that it was fed in this series of things.

00:25:49 ◼   ► So the laws governing what machines are allowed to do are much more sparse and less well tested

00:25:57 ◼   ► because they're all necessarily newer because we haven't had machines that could do anything

00:26:00 ◼   ► like this.

00:26:01 ◼   ► So yeah, I don't, it's hard to say how this one's going to go, but like I, I applaud Apple

00:26:06 ◼   ► for just sidestepping in entirely and Adobe and all these other companies while these

00:26:11 ◼   ► guys fight it out.

00:26:12 ◼   ► But I do fear what the outcome of these cases are going to be because it's like, what, you

00:26:17 ◼   ► know, whatever the details of this specific case are, are probably so weird and so specific

00:26:23 ◼   ► that they shouldn't be like the placeholder for everything for all time.

00:26:27 ◼   ► It would be much better for us to all sort of think about this as a society and come

00:26:32 ◼   ► up with some kind of guidelines that we think will be beneficial going forward.

00:26:36 ◼   ► But the more I, the more I outline that scenario, the more fantastical it sounds.

00:26:40 ◼   ► So maybe we'll just get a series of legal precedents and hope for the best.

00:26:44 ◼   ► Well and there's also, there's other ways this could be sorted out.

00:26:47 ◼   ► So like for instance, the market might just, might kind of go in a direction where like

00:26:52 ◼   ► big companies like OpenAI and Microsoft and certainly as we, as we're seeing with what

00:26:56 ◼   ► Apple's allegedly doing, big companies might just have, you know what, it's not worth the

00:27:00 ◼   ► risk for me to train, you know, train my models on data that might come back and bite me in

00:27:07 ◼   ► the butt as a copyright infringement lawsuit later.

00:27:09 ◼   ► So let me just, you know, buy stuff from, from, from, you know, known sources that I'm

00:27:13 ◼   ► allowed to buy from anyway and train on that.

00:27:15 ◼   ► Or they'll settle out of court.

00:27:16 ◼   ► Like this will never actually go to a verdict.

00:27:18 ◼   ► They'll settle, they'll settle once they see a delay of the land in the court and whoever's

00:27:21 ◼   ► losing will be compelled to come to the table and they'll find a settlement.

00:27:24 ◼   ► And basically what they'll end up with is a not quite as amicable version of what Apple

00:27:28 ◼   ► has, which is, you know, Microsoft has agreed to play the New York Times X, Y millions of

00:27:32 ◼   ► dollars in exchange for blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:27:34 ◼   ► And that becomes the precedent, which is like, if you can steal it, if you can get away with

00:27:38 ◼   ► it, but if they notice and sue you, then you have to settle for millions of dollars, which

00:27:41 ◼   ► is also not a great way to do business, see also patents.

00:27:45 ◼   ► But also like, you know, the, the models, again, I, I know shockingly little about how

00:27:50 ◼   ► these new models work, so forgive me.

00:27:53 ◼   ► Trying to figure that out in the coming year.

00:27:55 ◼   ► But anyway, the models could also potentially be tweaked to just like kind of keep track

00:28:00 ◼   ► of like how many original training inputs are being served for a given output maybe?

00:28:07 ◼   ► That's not how the models work at all right now.

00:28:09 ◼   ► Like at all.

00:28:10 ◼   ► It's more, it's much more like a one way hash mash that you cannot reverse it.

00:28:15 ◼   ► You could, you could keep, they don't, you could keep track of like what did we train

00:28:18 ◼   ► it on, but maybe either, you know, accidentally or on purpose, a lot of these companies say,

00:28:23 ◼   ► Oh, well we can't give you an exhaustive list of what we try.

00:28:25 ◼   ► Like just humans, like, Hey, we'll just make a list of all the stuff we feed to the L M

00:28:29 ◼   ► like all the URLs, all the content will essentially we'll catalog it.

00:28:33 ◼   ► And so if anyone asks, we can show them the list.

00:28:35 ◼   ► But what you're asking for is what a lot of people ask for.

00:28:37 ◼   ► It was like, Oh, when you get, when I give you a prompt and you give them your result,

00:28:40 ◼   ► can you tell me what contributed to that result?

00:28:42 ◼   ► Because the answer is always everything I was trained on.

00:28:45 ◼   ► Like that's the answer.

00:28:46 ◼   ► There's no like, Oh, tell me which part, which part did this word come from and what URLs

00:28:50 ◼   ► and what documents contributed to this that is absolutely not tracked in these things.

00:28:54 ◼   ► And if you think about it, if it was like, that's, you know, it's not, if it was, these

00:28:59 ◼   ► models would be even larger.

00:29:01 ◼   ► Now there, it could be that legally we have to come up with some kind of tagging method

00:29:05 ◼   ► to be able to incorporate that into the model.

00:29:07 ◼   ► So it can tell you, but I bet the answer would be these 17 million documents contributed

00:29:11 ◼   ► to that result.

00:29:12 ◼   ► And it's like, cause that's not useful to me.

00:29:14 ◼   ► How is that useful?

00:29:16 ◼   ► So yeah, I don't, this, this whole lawsuit of like, Oh, Oh, no, New York times is suing

00:29:21 ◼   ► open AI, right?

00:29:23 ◼   ► Whichever way this goes, those large language models that open AI were not just trained

00:29:26 ◼   ► on the New York times.

00:29:27 ◼   ► They were trained on millions and millions and millions of pieces of data.

00:29:31 ◼   ► Is this the system now, if you can figure out that it was trained on your data and you

00:29:35 ◼   ► can hire lawyers for millions of dollars, you can sue them and hope to win something

00:29:39 ◼   ► like that's also a ridiculous system.

00:29:42 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:29:43 ◼   ► I mean, my, I think my, my general opinion on it now is that it shouldn't be illegal

00:29:49 ◼   ► for AI models to do what will be legal for humans to do.

00:29:54 ◼   ► But, but why do you think that?

00:29:56 ◼   ► I think a lot of this is, is really a ques-, you know, questions about fair use, which

00:29:59 ◼   ► of course is a famously, you know, squishy, imprecise doctrine, but it is totally legal

00:30:06 ◼   ► for a human to read a bunch of New York times articles and summarize them for other people.

00:30:11 ◼   ► If they ask them, it is legal for a human to, you know, like what the times says that

00:30:17 ◼   ► the models quote, mimic its expressive style.

00:30:21 ◼   ► Well, it is totally legal for a human to mimic the New York times style when creating other

00:30:26 ◼   ► content.

00:30:27 ◼   ► The times does not have a monopoly on style.

00:30:29 ◼   ► I'm not entirely sure it is legal for humans to close the summaries, but anyway, the whole,

00:30:33 ◼   ► my whole point of this is like, yes, our laws give humans lots of rights, but this is not

00:30:37 ◼   ► a human doing this.

00:30:39 ◼   ► Well, but it is tools that humans are making.

00:30:41 ◼   ► Right, but that's like making it sort of a rights laundering machine where it's like,

00:30:44 ◼   ► well, if I make a machine and set it into motion, I wash my hands of it and now I didn't

00:30:49 ◼   ► do it.

00:30:50 ◼   ► The computer program do it, but computer programs have no rights.

00:30:52 ◼   ► They're not sentient, conscious beings that have legal standing and legal system.

00:30:55 ◼   ► They are computer programs, right?

00:30:57 ◼   ► There are no laws saying, and if a computer program does this, it's fine because the computer

00:31:02 ◼   ► programs are allowed to do that because here are the rights.

00:31:04 ◼   ► Here's the bill of rights for computer programs.

00:31:06 ◼   ► It's not a conscious entity.

00:31:07 ◼   ► It's not, you know what I mean?

00:31:09 ◼   ► Like so, and if you, if you make it to like, well, if a human kills someone, that's murder,

00:31:13 ◼   ► but if a human pushes a button that makes a machine kill somebody, it's fine.

00:31:16 ◼   ► The machine did it.

00:31:18 ◼   ► And this is just a much more complicated version of push the button machinery happens, copyright

00:31:23 ◼   ► infringement.

00:31:24 ◼   ► No, I actually don't think this is like, you know, um, liability laundering at all.

00:31:28 ◼   ► I think it's on the contrary, the people who create the machine become responsible for

00:31:33 ◼   ► what it does.

00:31:34 ◼   ► But I think it should be allowed to do what people are allowed to do because the people

00:31:39 ◼   ► are the ones creating the software that does this.

00:31:41 ◼   ► The people are the ones creating the tools.

00:31:43 ◼   ► So like it is right now, it is legal for me to read a bunch of articles and then, you

00:31:50 ◼   ► know, talk about them in summary or, you know, make a satirical imitation of the New York

00:31:54 ◼   ► Times of style.

00:31:55 ◼   ► That is all legal for me.

00:31:56 ◼   ► However, what is not legal for me is to replicate an entire article on my own site that someone

00:32:02 ◼   ► else's they can hit me for copyright infringement.

00:32:04 ◼   ► Well, that I think is fine.

00:32:05 ◼   ► And so in some ways, I think this, the Times actually has a case for copyright infringement

00:32:12 ◼   ► in the sense that if these models can output copyrighted content in like in whole part

00:32:19 ◼   ► or in whole, I guess that makes sense, you know, they have a, they have a possible case

00:32:24 ◼   ► there, but I don't think they could then also say you aren't allowed to train on our data.

00:32:31 ◼   ► The problem is you are reserving our data and that becomes opening.

00:32:36 ◼   ► I Microsoft's liability then.

00:32:37 ◼   ► So they have to decide what they want to do with their models and whether they can tweak

00:32:40 ◼   ► them in such a way that it can't do that anymore.

00:32:43 ◼   ► But the models existing and having been trained on that data, I don't see that as a clear

00:32:49 ◼   ► cut copyright violation.

00:32:51 ◼   ► They can create copyright violations afterwards, but the model just having been trained on

00:32:56 ◼   ► it, I don't necessarily see that as a problem.

00:32:58 ◼   ► It's not, it's not a clear copyright violation was copyright is a law that's been extended

00:33:03 ◼   ► to do so many weird things, but I think it is that we, it's not tenable for us to have

00:33:07 ◼   ► a system where you can extract all the value from someone else's content and make something

00:33:13 ◼   ► that was previously worthless, a worthless pile of code suddenly becomes incredibly valuable

00:33:18 ◼   ► because because of the input of the work of others that they're not compensated for.

00:33:23 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

00:33:24 ◼   ► And that's why I'm saying like we, that shouldn't be allowed because it makes for a system where

00:33:28 ◼   ► one party with these LLMs can exploit the work of others with no compensation and then

00:33:35 ◼   ► make huge amounts of money off of it and that seems like it's not a, it doesn't set a great

00:33:38 ◼   ► precedent.

00:33:39 ◼   ► I'm not sure what the system should be, but that doesn't seem like a great system.

00:33:43 ◼   ► And the closest thing that we have legally speaking, and I think there's probably cases

00:33:46 ◼   ► about this, but I don't remember them, is like Google search results.

00:33:50 ◼   ► Is it legal for Google to scrape the entire web and to make a search engine?

00:33:53 ◼   ► Google is worthless without the web that it's scraping, right?

00:33:56 ◼   ► And if there were cases about this, which I imagine there were cases about everything,

00:33:59 ◼   ► I think the side we've come down to is we're okay with you essentially indexing and allowing

00:34:05 ◼   ► access to and showing search results for because in the end you are providing a service that

00:34:11 ◼   ► is like a catalog that leads you to the links that you then click on.

00:34:16 ◼   ► But as time has gone on and Google has gotten more and more towards the side of like, well,

00:34:19 ◼   ► we don't really want to send you to the links.

00:34:22 ◼   ► We found some links, but actually what we're doing here is summarizing links.

00:34:26 ◼   ► You don't need to click through.

00:34:27 ◼   ► We'll just summarize them.

00:34:28 ◼   ► I mean, they were doing that long before LLM's, right?

00:34:31 ◼   ► And that starts to get more into, okay, Google, are now, are you a substitute for the websites?

00:34:35 ◼   ► Because previously we said it's fine for Google to make a billion dollar company and sell

00:34:39 ◼   ► ads because they're providing a service, a catalog, an index.

00:34:43 ◼   ► They're not replacing all of those web pages.

00:34:45 ◼   ► Google itself contains no information.

00:34:47 ◼   ► If you want to see what's on those web pages, you've got to click through them.

00:34:49 ◼   ► Oh, well they do have summaries.

00:34:50 ◼   ► And I guess they do show the headline, oh, now they're, now they're summarizing them

00:34:54 ◼   ► at the top and not showing you what that came from.

00:34:56 ◼   ► Hmm.

00:34:57 ◼   ► That's where you start to push into this.

00:34:59 ◼   ► And I think if you're going to look at like for close at the closest case law and the

00:35:03 ◼   ► closest argument for you could say, well, if you think it's okay for Google to do what

00:35:06 ◼   ► they're doing, then how is this not okay?

00:35:08 ◼   ► Cause this is just a better version of Google.

00:35:10 ◼   ► Largely.

00:35:11 ◼   ► Yes.

00:35:12 ◼   ► I mean, I think that largely is the case that I'm making.

00:35:15 ◼   ► Like, I don't see this as being that different from what Google is doing and what Google

00:35:19 ◼   ► is doing.

00:35:20 ◼   ► And you can say this is not ideal.

00:35:22 ◼   ► You can say this is kind of a jerk thing to do, but that's very different from whether

00:35:26 ◼   ► it should be legal or not.

00:35:28 ◼   ► Again, we already have sufficient laws to protect against, you know, full scale copyright

00:35:35 ◼   ► infringement.

00:35:36 ◼   ► Like Google in their little info box answers they give on their search results pages, they

00:35:40 ◼   ► aren't allowed to replicate an entire copyrightable work on there.

00:35:45 ◼   ► That would be copyright infringement.

00:35:46 ◼   ► We already have laws against that.

00:35:47 ◼   ► They are allowed to stay within whatever is considered fair use.

00:35:52 ◼   ► And again, that's a kind of a squishy broad thing.

00:35:55 ◼   ► But there are established standards for that, including like how much of the work are you

00:35:59 ◼   ► replicating.

00:36:00 ◼   ► So if you are just like, if you have an AI model that is able to give you a one sentence

00:36:04 ◼   ► summary of a five paragraph article, I don't think there's anything wrong with that.

00:36:09 ◼   ► That I think is clear fair use.

00:36:10 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:36:11 ◼   ► Well, that's, those are the ends of the spectrum, but I feel like what the LLMs are doing is

00:36:15 ◼   ► far beyond the summary of the top of Google results, but that's, they're creeping towards

00:36:19 ◼   ► each other, right?

00:36:20 ◼   ► So Google was going in that direction.

00:36:21 ◼   ► LLMs took this huge leap to say, actually no search results.

00:36:24 ◼   ► I mean, the little bar does still provide them, but like I said, it's my understanding

00:36:27 ◼   ► is you can't back it out of the results.

00:36:29 ◼   ► You can show what you, the documents that you trained on, if you bothered to keep track

00:36:35 ◼   ► of them, which you probably didn't because your lawyers probably said, just don't keep

00:36:37 ◼   ► track of it.

00:36:39 ◼   ► But you can't, you know, you can't show exactly where this stuff came from, but like the LLMs,

00:36:43 ◼   ► we'll see how this case goes.

00:36:45 ◼   ► Like the direct competition, like saying that this is a substitute for our service.

00:36:50 ◼   ► That is an attempt to nullify fair use to say, even if you just saw an excerpt or whatever,

00:36:54 ◼   ► if you show sufficient information that it is now a substitute for the thing that you

00:36:58 ◼   ► trained on, you're essentially stealing value from us.

00:37:01 ◼   ► No one's going to go to the New York Times if all the knowledge of the New York Times

00:37:04 ◼   ► is contained in your large language model.

00:37:05 ◼   ► And right now they're not that good.

00:37:07 ◼   ► Right?

00:37:08 ◼   ► And so really all the language isn't contained in the LLMs and a lot of it is filled with

00:37:11 ◼   ► BS or whatever.

00:37:12 ◼   ► You could figure out how to make it not spew BS or at least spew plausible enough BS that

00:37:17 ◼   ► no one ever goes to the New York Times again.

00:37:19 ◼   ► That makes the New York Times unviable as a business.

00:37:21 ◼   ► And why?

00:37:22 ◼   ► Because the LLM stole all their value and then eventually there's no more New York Times.

00:37:25 ◼   ► I know this is a silly scenario, but eventually there's no more New York Times.

00:37:28 ◼   ► And then what is the next LLM trained on?

00:37:29 ◼   ► Which is why I think just allowing it to go hog wild is not viable.

00:37:34 ◼   ► You need to come to some kind of arrangement that allows all the things that the LLMs are

00:37:40 ◼   ► trained on to continue to exist for the next hundred years for the next set of LLMs or

00:37:44 ◼   ► whatever to be trained on.

00:37:45 ◼   ► Otherwise they'll be just LLMs with nothing for them to be trained on except for each

00:37:48 ◼   ► other's BS and that's not an ideal system.

00:37:50 ◼   ► Ultimately there's a question of what should be illegal versus what's ideal for the market

00:37:57 ◼   ► or ideal for how we think things should be righteous or best.

00:38:02 ◼   ► And those are very different questions.

00:38:04 ◼   ► Lots of things are legal that we think are kind of unfortunate.

00:38:08 ◼   ► Lots of things are legal that are pretty strong competition for other companies.

00:38:12 ◼   ► So if new technology creates competition for someone else, that's generally legal and usually

00:38:20 ◼   ► for the benefit of the public.

00:38:22 ◼   ► Well what you want is for laws to guide this because if there are no laws governing it

00:38:27 ◼   ► and people think it's free for all, there'll never be a market solution.

00:38:30 ◼   ► What you want is there to be enough laws that say these parties need to discuss things with

00:38:36 ◼   ► each other because one of them just can't take everything and ignore the other.

00:38:40 ◼   ► In the absence of any kind of laws or precedents or whatever, it's like we can do whatever

00:38:44 ◼   ► we want.

00:38:45 ◼   ► Everything we're doing is 100% legal.

00:38:46 ◼   ► You can't stop us at all.

00:38:47 ◼   ► It's better to have some kind of laws governing the bounds of this such that it brings them

00:38:51 ◼   ► all to the table and they come to a market solution because the market solution is not

00:38:53 ◼   ► going to be you pay New York Times $1 for every article you trained on because that's

00:38:57 ◼   ► like billions of dollars.

00:38:58 ◼   ► That doesn't make any sense.

00:38:59 ◼   ► That's not a viable market solution.

00:39:01 ◼   ► Then it'll be like okay well I guess we just won't have LLMs and I guess we'll never train

00:39:04 ◼   ► in the New York Times.

00:39:05 ◼   ► If you have enough guidelines, the parties will come together and come up with something

00:39:10 ◼   ► that is feasible to say well if we don't talk to each other and figure something out, there

00:39:14 ◼   ► are these laws that say, again kind of like patents for those, the FRAN stuff where it's

00:39:19 ◼   ► like you can have this patent but you have to license it to people under reasonable terms.

00:39:23 ◼   ► You can't just charge them a bazillion dollars or whatever.

00:39:25 ◼   ► I would hope that there'd be some kind of laws that make the LLM companies figure out

00:39:31 ◼   ► a compensation model, kind of like the what are the ASCAP thing or whatever when you want

00:39:34 ◼   ► to do like a cover of a song or whatever.

00:39:37 ◼   ► You can't just cover a song for free but also there is a system in place that has come up

00:39:41 ◼   ► with a market value for doing covers such that covers still are allowed to happen but

00:39:45 ◼   ► people are still compensated for them.

00:39:47 ◼   ► I don't know a lot about that whole system but in my mind that's kind of the idea of

00:39:52 ◼   ► it's not a free for all but it's also not so onerous that no one can ever sing covers

00:39:56 ◼   ► anymore and it's also people do get paid.

00:40:01 ◼   ► Maybe wishful thinking we'll see how this works out in the court case but I do like

00:40:05 ◼   ► the idea of there being some kind of value exchange somewhere here and I'm happy to

00:40:09 ◼   ► let the market figure out that value exchange but in the absence of any guidelines I'm

00:40:13 ◼   ► not happy to let people just say everything is free and we're taking it all and we'll

00:40:17 ◼   ► suck every ounce of value out of it, sorry.

00:40:20 ◼   ► I mean that's capitalism isn't it?

00:40:23 ◼   ► That's unbridled capitalism.

00:40:24 ◼   ► We need capitalism with regulations right?

00:40:27 ◼   ► That's laissez-faire capitalism.

00:40:28 ◼   ► Yeah it tends not to work very well long term.

00:40:32 ◼   ► The tricky part is figuring out what should those guidelines be and who should they accidentally

00:40:36 ◼   ► favor usually rich people.

00:40:37 ◼   ► And everyone has a different answer.

00:40:40 ◼   ► Speaking of let's talk Massimo.

00:40:41 ◼   ► So on the 26th of December the Biden administration said we're not going to do anything about

00:40:47 ◼   ► this and the Apple watch sales ban did indeed land in the US.

00:40:53 ◼   ► Apple had a statement again this is 26th of December.

00:40:56 ◼   ► Apple says at Apple we work tirelessly to create products and services that meaningfully

00:41:01 ◼   ► impact users lives.

00:41:02 ◼   ► It's what drives our teams clinical design and engineering to dedicate years to developing

00:41:07 ◼   ► scientifically validated health fitness and wellness features for Apple watch and we are

00:41:11 ◼   ► inspired that millions of people around the world have benefited greatly from this product.

00:41:14 ◼   ► Hang on just a moment here.

00:41:16 ◼   ► Keep in mind what you're reading is a statement after the Biden administration said nah we're

00:41:20 ◼   ► gonna let this go through.

00:41:22 ◼   ► We've gotten more than halfway through this statement and Apple has said we're pretty

00:41:27 ◼   ► great.

00:41:28 ◼   ► It wouldn't be like a statement we are very disappointed with the Biden administration's

00:41:30 ◼   ► blah blah blah.

00:41:34 ◼   ► Over one half of this statement is like we just work so hard on this and we're so wonderful.

00:41:39 ◼   ► Anyway now what do they say?

00:41:41 ◼   ► We strongly disagree with the US ITC decision and resulting exclusion order and are taking

00:41:47 ◼   ► all measures to return Apple watch series 9 Apple watch ultra 2 to customers in the

00:41:50 ◼   ► US as soon as possible.

00:41:52 ◼   ► And 26 December.

00:41:53 ◼   ► I bet they're gonna pay Masa all bunch of money right all measures.

00:41:56 ◼   ► Let's see what happens next.

00:41:58 ◼   ► Surely that's what they'll do.

00:41:59 ◼   ► 27 December at 1155 a.m. Apple watch ban has been temporarily paused.

00:42:04 ◼   ► So the Verge reports that one day after the Apple watch import ban went into effect the

00:42:08 ◼   ► US Court of Appeals is instituting a brief pause while it considers a longer pause.

00:42:12 ◼   ► So the answer is what avenues were still open.

00:42:15 ◼   ► Still plenty of things they can do in the courts and they are like I mean it's always

00:42:18 ◼   ► been Apple's play here is they're going to exhaust every possibility asking Biden to

00:42:22 ◼   ► help them appealing.

00:42:23 ◼   ► They'll do all those things.

00:42:26 ◼   ► We'll see if they get to a termination condition which involves giving Masa money.

00:42:31 ◼   ► Well that was the 27th at 1155 a.m. the 27th at 521 p.m. Apple resumes Apple watch sales

00:42:37 ◼   ► after the ban is paused with the sales and import bans on hold Apple's resume sales of

00:42:41 ◼   ► series 9 and ultra 2.

00:42:42 ◼   ► So and that's where we stand.

00:42:44 ◼   ► We're recording this on what's today the third.

00:42:47 ◼   ► We still have Apple watch on sale in the United States from Apple.

00:42:50 ◼   ► So all's well right.

00:42:53 ◼   ► I mean that's pretty amazing considering they halted sales like a couple days after Christmas

00:42:59 ◼   ► and then one day later they turn them back on.

00:43:01 ◼   ► I mean again they're still it's still whining its way through the court system.

00:43:04 ◼   ► But if you had to if Apple could have picked this timing I'm not sure they could have picked

00:43:08 ◼   ► anything better.

00:43:09 ◼   ► Like we get all our holiday sales we get one or two days where we file paperwork to you

00:43:15 ◼   ► know we have our last ditch effort Biden save us he's like no don't think so.

00:43:19 ◼   ► And then pulled from the stores and then one day later it's back and you know now we wait

00:43:24 ◼   ► for the next step.

00:43:25 ◼   ► Yeah I mean it worked out pretty well for Apple not so great for Masa now but I mean

00:43:29 ◼   ► we'll see what happens.

00:43:30 ◼   ► Well this is not over yet so further updates as events transpire.

00:43:35 ◼   ► Ultimately I think they're just going to have to settle and they're going to have to license

00:43:39 ◼   ► this whatever this patent is that's that's like that they can't get passed.

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00:45:35 ◼   ► [Music]

00:45:38 ◼   ► 2024 baby and we should probably do a little bit of a preview as to what we think is coming

00:45:45 ◼   ► in 2024.

00:45:47 ◼   ► Jon you've been kind enough to put a bunch of items in the show notes for us to discuss.

00:45:52 ◼   ► Did you want to do this top to bottom or are you going to let us just round robin and pick

00:45:55 ◼   ► what we think is interesting?

00:45:56 ◼   ► No, you go through the items.

00:45:57 ◼   ► What I put in the list is things, well it's in our typical show notes fashion, it's things

00:46:01 ◼   ► that we more or less know are coming and what we think about them or we're looking forward

00:46:04 ◼   ► to them or whatever and then things start getting question marks after them as we get

00:46:08 ◼   ► towards the end of the list where it's like maybe these are coming.

00:46:11 ◼   ► So I think we just go one at a time.

00:46:13 ◼   ► Vision Pro it sounds like, I don't have links to put in the show notes handy, but it sounds

00:46:18 ◼   ► like it is imminent.

00:46:21 ◼   ► Probably if I were to wager a guest sometime this month will be at least a formal announcement

00:46:25 ◼   ► as to like when it'll go on sale and whatnot.

00:46:27 ◼   ► So Vision Pro could be anytime now and I am excited for it.

00:46:33 ◼   ► I'm curious to see what the response will be.

00:46:36 ◼   ► I'm curious to see how one goes to buy a Vision Pro.

00:46:39 ◼   ► I mean I know there's been a lot of talk and chatter, if not official statements, that

00:46:42 ◼   ► you'll have to pick it up in store.

00:46:44 ◼   ► I understand that although I have a lot of problems with it, which we can explore if

00:46:48 ◼   ► we really want, but I'm very curious to see how this looks.

00:46:52 ◼   ► I'm curious to see what the gray market looks like because I know that there's a lot of

00:46:56 ◼   ► people including many of our friends that live overseas that are very keen to have their

00:46:59 ◼   ► own Vision Pro.

00:47:01 ◼   ► So how does that work?

00:47:02 ◼   ► If you're willing to fly yourself to New York or Richmond and want to pick up a Vision Pro,

00:47:08 ◼   ► is that something that Apple will sell to you?

00:47:09 ◼   ► Or does it work with a non-American Apple ID?

00:47:13 ◼   ► How does that look?

00:47:14 ◼   ► But all that being said, I'm really excited and really interested to see what this looks

00:47:19 ◼   ► like once it's in the market.

00:47:21 ◼   ► I'm not excited for the work I need to do to get Call Sheet working better on it, which

00:47:26 ◼   ► I've done some of but not enough.

00:47:28 ◼   ► But I am excited overall.

00:47:29 ◼   ► I don't know.

00:47:30 ◼   ► Marco, how do you feel about it?

00:47:31 ◼   ► - Man, I'm gonna have a lot to say about it once I'm allowed to talk about experiences

00:47:37 ◼   ► that I will have with it.

00:47:40 ◼   ► Going to a lab was amazing as a developer, not so great as a podcaster.

00:47:46 ◼   ► - I'm sorry, you're not allowed to characterize your experience, Marco.

00:47:49 ◼   ► Please strike that from the record.

00:47:51 ◼   ► - Yes, I went to a lab, period.

00:47:54 ◼   ► But it is kind of unfortunate that it's hard for me to discuss the Vision Pro and my expectations

00:48:01 ◼   ► and thoughts on it because I have some experience with it that I'm not allowed to talk about.

00:48:07 ◼   ► But hopefully that will be over soon.

00:48:08 ◼   ► I'm with you, Casey.

00:48:09 ◼   ► I think it is probably coming within probably a month.

00:48:12 ◼   ► I think it's very close.

00:48:14 ◼   ► And I am excited about it.

00:48:17 ◼   ► But I also, I'm trying to keep my excitement in check.

00:48:22 ◼   ► As I figure out what am I doing for Overcast for it, looking at the market for it, I think

00:48:28 ◼   ► it's going to be a very slow burn.

00:48:31 ◼   ► Like it's going to be a very slow build up because the volume is just not going to be

00:48:35 ◼   ► there for a while.

00:48:37 ◼   ► There was those rumors from the supply chain that the little screens they're using inside,

00:48:42 ◼   ► that Sony can probably only make one or two million of those screens in a year.

00:48:47 ◼   ► And so there is some speculation from the supply chain, like they might not be able

00:48:51 ◼   ► to make and sell more than maybe a million Vision Pros in the first year.

00:48:56 ◼   ► And if there's any truth to that, if you figure like approximately a year from now,

00:49:01 ◼   ► maybe there's a million of these in active use.

00:49:04 ◼   ► Well, as an app developer, how many of those million people are going to have my app?

00:49:10 ◼   ► If I'm lucky, maybe a few hundred.

00:49:13 ◼   ► Like it's not, it's going to be a very small number of people.

00:49:17 ◼   ► From an app developer's perspective, there is going to be no good reason, I think, to

00:49:22 ◼   ► port your app over to this unless you have a way to capture a huge portion of its users.

00:49:26 ◼   ► I don't think as a podcast app, I don't think I have that.

00:49:29 ◼   ► You should make an app that looks like when you tilt the glasses upward, it's like you're

00:49:33 ◼   ► drinking a beer.

00:49:34 ◼   ► That's the type of app that I'm thinking of with this launch of like, you're right, because

00:49:40 ◼   ► of the supply issues, Apple is capped in how many of these they can physically make, no

00:49:43 ◼   ► matter how many people want them.

00:49:45 ◼   ► And keep in mind, they're $3,500 to start, so it's probably not going to be that many

00:49:48 ◼   ► anyway.

00:49:49 ◼   ► But like, there is the kind of gold rush, like, well, people are going to get their

00:49:53 ◼   ► Vision Pro and they're like, well, I've got this thing.

00:49:55 ◼   ► What kind of apps can I get for it?

00:49:56 ◼   ► And if you have some general purpose app, like it looks like we're talking about the

00:49:59 ◼   ► iPhone app that showed like basically a beer on your phone and use the accelerometer when

00:50:03 ◼   ► you tilted your phone, the liquid level would say level, so you're drinking a beer.

00:50:09 ◼   ► Everyone who had an iPhone got that app because you get an iPhone and you're like, what's

00:50:12 ◼   ► available for this thing?

00:50:13 ◼   ► And it was like seven, you know, not seven things in the store, but relatively speaking,

00:50:16 ◼   ► there were very few apps in the App Store.

00:50:18 ◼   ► And if you were one of those apps and you were a general purpose kind of like, I'll

00:50:22 ◼   ► try it, I just want to try a fun thing for my thing, you could get a massive market share

00:50:26 ◼   ► of the first batch of people who bought an iPhone and make a lot of money.

00:50:30 ◼   ► And that is probably going to be true in the Vision Pro, but I'm not sure a podcast player

00:50:34 ◼   ► is that app.

00:50:35 ◼   ► That's going to be the impulse purchase that you really want to just try out the Vision

00:50:39 ◼   ► Pro.

00:50:40 ◼   ► When I think Vision Pro, I don't think podcasts.

00:50:41 ◼   ► So it's not particularly a visual medium, but someone's going to make that app.

00:50:46 ◼   ► So I think there is going to be a mini gold rush to try to sell to 50% of the million

00:50:50 ◼   ► people who get Vision Pros.

00:50:52 ◼   ► And Casey, to your point about the gray market stuff, this has got to be Apple's nightmare

00:50:56 ◼   ► because Apple hates gray market stuff to begin with.

00:51:00 ◼   ► And the worst thing, the thing Apple always will tell you they don't want and they really,

00:51:04 ◼   ► really don't want, which is we don't want people to have our product and have a crappy

00:51:08 ◼   ► experience because they didn't get it the Apple way.

00:51:11 ◼   ► And nothing could be more problematic when it comes to that situation than a thing that

00:51:16 ◼   ► fits on your face that has different size things that can be different size light shields

00:51:20 ◼   ► and the prescription glasses and all.

00:51:23 ◼   ► There's no way that the gray market is going to give the buyers of those gray market things

00:51:28 ◼   ► what Apple thinks the experience should be.

00:51:30 ◼   ► So you're going to have developers overseas who are using uncomfortable, blurry looking

00:51:35 ◼   ► headsets because it's the only thing they could get and they pick the prescription wrong

00:51:38 ◼   ► and they don't have the right light shield thing and it doesn't fit their face and Apple's

00:51:43 ◼   ► going to be like, "That's not how it's supposed to be.

00:51:45 ◼   ► We want you to have this experience.

00:51:47 ◼   ► That's why you have to wait for us to launch in your country.

00:51:49 ◼   ► Come to the Apple store, we'll scan your face, we'll make sure we find the right..."

00:51:52 ◼   ► But it's like, "Well, I didn't do that.

00:51:54 ◼   ► Instead, someone got it for me and I bought it on eBay and I just hope that the fate shield

00:51:58 ◼   ► wasn't too painful after 30 minutes."

00:52:00 ◼   ► And that's not the experience Apple wants you to have.

00:52:04 ◼   ► They hated gray market iPhones.

00:52:05 ◼   ► They don't like when you use non-official Apple parts.

00:52:09 ◼   ► This is their worst nightmare because the experience of Vision Pro can be so much worse.

00:52:13 ◼   ► The floor is so low if you get one that doesn't fit right and doesn't look right with the

00:52:18 ◼   ► prescription lenses.

00:52:20 ◼   ► And so many people need prescriptions.

00:52:21 ◼   ► I still think about this, not that I'm planning on getting one, but it's like, when I heard

00:52:25 ◼   ► Casey talking when you're on the talk show, talking about the prescription lenses and

00:52:29 ◼   ► stuff, setting aside the price, I was like, "What prescription would I tell Apple?"

00:52:33 ◼   ► Because Goober's like, "Oh, I came to the thing and they just asked what my prescription

00:52:35 ◼   ► was."

00:52:36 ◼   ► Because I have two sets of glasses now.

00:52:38 ◼   ► I haven't moved to bifocals or progressives, but I have my computer glasses that I'm wearing

00:52:42 ◼   ► now to look at my screen and then I have my TV watching glasses and my driving glasses

00:52:46 ◼   ► that are my distance glasses.

00:52:48 ◼   ► I don't know which prescription I should give them.

00:52:51 ◼   ► What distance, because my computer glasses are made to be comfortable for me looking

00:52:54 ◼   ► at my screen that's at arm's length, right?

00:52:56 ◼   ► And my driving glasses are basically 20/20 at infinity for distance stuff.

00:53:02 ◼   ► What prescription would I even give Apple?

00:53:05 ◼   ► And believe me, I'm not the only old person with two different prescriptions up close

00:53:09 ◼   ► and far away.

00:53:10 ◼   ► There are a lot of us.

00:53:12 ◼   ► And so that's got to be part of the experience.

00:53:14 ◼   ► It's not like you're going to go into Apple store and they're going to say, "Oh, what's

00:53:17 ◼   ► your prescription?"

00:53:18 ◼   ► Because that's not an easy question.

00:53:19 ◼   ► You have to say, "What's your prescription when viewing things from X distance?"

00:53:24 ◼   ► And I don't even know what that distance is.

00:53:25 ◼   ► Is it the distance that they typically hang windows by default in front of you?

00:53:28 ◼   ► Is it the distance the screens are from your eyes?

00:53:30 ◼   ► Well, I think yes.

00:53:31 ◼   ► I mean, remember we talked about that whole like convergence effect thing earlier in the

00:53:35 ◼   ► fall.

00:53:37 ◼   ► And it does seem like they are optimizing for the equivalent distance of whatever it

00:53:45 ◼   ► is like a few meters in front of you, like wherever the default spot is they put windows

00:53:48 ◼   ► and kind of like on this axis around you.

00:53:51 ◼   ► Meters?

00:53:52 ◼   ► How far is that in feet?

00:53:54 ◼   ► Yeah, it's something like eight or 10 feet in front of you, I think.

00:53:58 ◼   ► Yeah.

00:53:59 ◼   ► But all this is to say that getting the experience Apple wants you to have from their Vision

00:54:04 ◼   ► Pro is going to be trickier than any other Apple product.

00:54:07 ◼   ► Even more so than the watch.

00:54:08 ◼   ► And gray market is just going to exacerbate that.

00:54:11 ◼   ► You know, that's just part of being an early adopter and people will suffer through it.

00:54:14 ◼   ► But boy, it's got to really eat Apple up because they spent so long trying to make this product

00:54:18 ◼   ► and get the right set of face shields and they know how it should work like internally

00:54:22 ◼   ► or whatever, just to know that like 20% of the, basically everyone outside the US who

00:54:26 ◼   ► has this thing is having a substandard experience.

00:54:29 ◼   ► You know, what can you do?

00:54:31 ◼   ► I think the Vision Pro is going to be the story of the first few months of the year

00:54:36 ◼   ► at least.

00:54:37 ◼   ► I'm a little concerned for Apple that the press and like the hype won't stick as much

00:54:43 ◼   ► as they want it to because it's going to be such a slow build up of a market, I think.

00:54:48 ◼   ► They have put so much into this product, like in terms of their time and resources and everything.

00:54:56 ◼   ► But when was the last time Apple launched a really high profile brand new product that

00:55:03 ◼   ► was not expected to be a massive volume hit at the start?

00:55:07 ◼   ► Well, it was the iPhone.

00:55:08 ◼   ► Yeah, that's it.

00:55:09 ◼   ► And that was a long time ago and that was a very different company.

00:55:11 ◼   ► And you know, now, you can say something like, oh, the Mac Pro, but that's not nearly the

00:55:16 ◼   ► resources that went into the Vision Pro.

00:55:18 ◼   ► They haven't launched anything that they're fully behind as like, this is a new paradigm.

00:55:24 ◼   ► Like the watch was the closest you could say, it's like, this is a new way of computing

00:55:27 ◼   ► or whatever.

00:55:28 ◼   ► But like, I think this is fine for Apple because I think they'll weather it fine because it's

00:55:31 ◼   ► almost kind of a relief to essentially be supply constrained in the first year, give

00:55:36 ◼   ► them time to get their feet under them, kind of like with the watch.

00:55:38 ◼   ► Like Apple has an idea of what they think this thing will be good for, but what does

00:55:41 ◼   ► the market think?

00:55:43 ◼   ► And so this will be a big story in early 2024.

00:55:46 ◼   ► And I think it will settle down and people will forget about it and move on.

00:55:50 ◼   ► And that will give the product time to grow into itself, right?

00:55:54 ◼   ► And because, you know, either they all sell out or the story is Apple couldn't even sell

00:55:58 ◼   ► a million of them and it's too expensive, blah, blah, blah.

00:56:00 ◼   ► With that voice too.

00:56:01 ◼   ► Yeah, Apple's not going to be scared, but Apple's not going to go, Oh my God, forget

00:56:04 ◼   ► it.

00:56:05 ◼   ► We did so badly.

00:56:06 ◼   ► We're just going to cancel this product.

00:56:07 ◼   ► No, they're going to, they're going to ride out 2024.

00:56:08 ◼   ► No matter what happens, they're going to learn from what's out there in the market and 2025

00:56:12 ◼   ► they'll regroup and you know, continue on.

00:56:14 ◼   ► So I'm, I'm not worried about all the inevitable stories and the low sales due to either supply

00:56:21 ◼   ► constraints or lack of demand or whatever.

00:56:23 ◼   ► And even if it's best case and we're like, they sell out instantly and people are spending

00:56:27 ◼   ► huge amounts of money for the month in the gray market and everybody wants them.

00:56:31 ◼   ► And it's just so exciting, but they can't make them.

00:56:33 ◼   ► And they make the stories like, Oh, Apple should have, you know, found another supplier

00:56:35 ◼   ► for those screens or whatever.

00:56:37 ◼   ► Even if the very best happens in that scenario, it's still going to be like just a, you know,

00:56:43 ◼   ► a rookie year for the vision pro don't expect it to take over the world.

00:56:47 ◼   ► The iPhone, even the iPhone didn't take over the world in its first year of sales.

00:56:50 ◼   ► It was a curiosity.

00:56:51 ◼   ► It was a thing that people who could tolerate AT&T use.

00:56:55 ◼   ► And it was like, I'm not so sure about this.

00:56:57 ◼   ► Like, and the iPhone is like, you know, the best selling consumer product ever.

00:57:00 ◼   ► So do not expect the vision pro to do better than the iPhone in its first year.

00:57:04 ◼   ► And if it does 10 times worse, don't worry about it.

00:57:08 ◼   ► I feel like Apple is pretty dedicated to this, even if it 100% flops, I think they're going

00:57:13 ◼   ► to keep plugging away at this.

00:57:14 ◼   ► Well, and I think we're going like, I don't think Apple is going to have any trouble selling

00:57:20 ◼   ► as many as they can make this year.

00:57:21 ◼   ► Like that's, they're going to sell every single one they can make because they can't make

00:57:24 ◼   ► that money.

00:57:25 ◼   ► Right.

00:57:26 ◼   ► It's going to be backordered.

00:57:27 ◼   ► It's going to be hard to get like the it's going to be, it, they're going to sell them

00:57:30 ◼   ► all.

00:57:31 ◼   ► That's not going to be the problem.

00:57:32 ◼   ► Um, but what I, what I am envisioning is that people are going to buy it with a set of expectations

00:57:40 ◼   ► about what they're going to be able to use it for.

00:57:43 ◼   ► And then that will change because that's what happens with new tech categories.

00:57:46 ◼   ► It happens.

00:57:47 ◼   ► It happened with the Apple watch.

00:57:48 ◼   ► It happened before that with the iPad.

00:57:49 ◼   ► Remember the iPhone didn't have apps, didn't have an app store when it launched.

00:57:52 ◼   ► So talk about changing the way people use the device that people who have the first

00:57:56 ◼   ► iPhone are using it differently than we are because there was no app store.

00:58:00 ◼   ► And this is going to go through the same kind of hype curve of like, you know, you're going

00:58:03 ◼   ► to have, you know, now before it's actually out, but after it's been announced, you have

00:58:07 ◼   ► people saying, Oh my God, this is, you know, we're going to have to rethink cities.

00:58:10 ◼   ► Like we're, I'll be able to get all my work done in this headset.

00:58:14 ◼   ► I will, I'll never have to buy a computer or monitor again.

00:58:17 ◼   ► And you're going to have those people go out and buy it.

00:58:19 ◼   ► It's not going to fulfill that expectation for some percentage of those people.

00:58:23 ◼   ► The expectations are going to crash saying, I tried living my entire life in a vision

00:58:26 ◼   ► pro for a month and this is what happened.

00:58:29 ◼   ► My face is all sweaty and my nose hurts.

00:58:31 ◼   ► Right.

00:58:32 ◼   ► So then the expectations are going to crash.

00:58:33 ◼   ► You're going to have people like Federico who like actually will figure out how to get

00:58:37 ◼   ► all their work done in it.

00:58:38 ◼   ► And it's going to be, you know, a whole bunch of complex hacks to make it work for you.

00:58:43 ◼   ► And then, you know, and you're going to have people say, actually I traveled only with

00:58:46 ◼   ► this device for this trip and here's how I did it.

00:58:48 ◼   ► So there's going to be this, you know, this big roller coaster of press for it from people

00:58:52 ◼   ► who were like, you know, kicking the tires, trying it out, you know, tech enthusiasts,

00:58:55 ◼   ► people who are trying to like live in it and do, you know, way too much stuff in it.

00:59:00 ◼   ► Then you're going to have all the people saying, I tried this and it was bad for Reason X and

00:59:06 ◼   ► then all that's going to crash.

00:59:07 ◼   ► And then people are going to try it again and try different things and some new app

00:59:11 ◼   ► will come out for it that will make it better.

00:59:13 ◼   ► And it's going to be that kind of roller coaster for a while.

00:59:16 ◼   ► It's going to be a fun year in the sense that like that kind of experimentation I always

00:59:19 ◼   ► find really fun and entertaining for both myself to try to do it, but mostly to listen

00:59:24 ◼   ► and watch to what other people are doing with it and kind of experience it vicariously through

00:59:29 ◼   ► other people who have more time than I do.

00:59:32 ◼   ► But at the end of that roller coaster, I think this product is going to be really great for

00:59:38 ◼   ► the market that it finds.

00:59:41 ◼   ► But that's not going to be a big market for a while for lots of reasons, price, supply,

00:59:46 ◼   ► apps, like it's going to be, there's lots of reasons why it's not going to be a huge

00:59:49 ◼   ► market yet.

00:59:51 ◼   ► And I hope that everyone including Apple is able to keep perspective that when it comes

00:59:57 ◼   ► out and does not set the whole world on fire, that that's not necessarily a failure, it's

01:00:02 ◼   ► just the early part of its lifetime and the earliest part of this market.

01:00:08 ◼   ► But ultimately I'm very excited for that market.

01:00:11 ◼   ► I think there's a lot of good uses for it, but it's going to be a slow start.

01:00:15 ◼   ► Marco, do you plan on buying one?

01:00:17 ◼   ► Of course, immediately.

01:00:18 ◼   ► Because here's the thing, as a developer of these platforms, my app will be there, people

01:00:25 ◼   ► will use it.

01:00:26 ◼   ► Now, I was looking earlier today, I allow people to run my iPad app on Apple Silicon

01:00:31 ◼   ► Macs.

01:00:32 ◼   ► That has now accumulated a very large number of Mac users.

01:00:36 ◼   ► I have more Mac users than I have iPad users, which that's not what I would have guessed.

01:00:45 ◼   ► But that's the reality.

01:00:47 ◼   ► I plan to allow my app to run as long as it doesn't have major problems, and I will see

01:00:52 ◼   ► what kind of usage it gets.

01:00:54 ◼   ► And I will make decisions from there about when and whether to make a native version,

01:01:00 ◼   ► but I have some ideas for a native version I think are good.

01:01:03 ◼   ► I'm going to want to try them.

01:01:04 ◼   ► I'm going to want to try them immediately.

01:01:06 ◼   ► Because even though my likely market of Vision Pro owners in the first year is probably going

01:01:14 ◼   ► to be fewer people than use the large widget.

01:01:20 ◼   ► It's going to be some slice of a slice of a slice.

01:01:23 ◼   ► Numbers wise, relative to my entire product and my entire audience for my app, it's going

01:01:27 ◼   ► to be nothing.

01:01:29 ◼   ► But it's important for me to be there for other reasons.

01:01:33 ◼   ► There's value in the people who are the influencers in the press, there's value in them seeing

01:01:40 ◼   ► my app there and using it and knowing it's there.

01:01:43 ◼   ► There's a certain level of demand there that I want to address from that kind of person.

01:01:47 ◼   ► There's value to Apple and therefore value to me indirectly through favor with Apple.

01:01:53 ◼   ► So there's all sorts of reasons why I would probably want to be there anyway.

01:01:56 ◼   ► Numbers are not one of them.

01:01:58 ◼   ► And I expect the Vision Pro and the Overcast app for it to be a massively money losing

01:02:02 ◼   ► operation for me for a while.

01:02:06 ◼   ► But I absolutely will be buying one the second I can get my hands on one.

01:02:10 ◼   ► And I think a large portion of the early buyers will be developers and companies that are

01:02:18 ◼   ► buying it to test their stuff on and to develop for.

01:02:21 ◼   ► But we'll see.

01:02:22 ◼   ► That being said, a lot of small developers are super uninterested in paying $3,500 for

01:02:29 ◼   ► this.

01:02:30 ◼   ► Hi!

01:02:31 ◼   ► Right, I think there's...

01:02:32 ◼   ► It's not as much of a slam dunk for every developer out there to buy this as say the

01:02:38 ◼   ► first iPad was.

01:02:39 ◼   ► Because we had different expectations and it was way cheaper.

01:02:43 ◼   ► This is very expensive and anyone who's like running the numbers is like, "Well, how much

01:02:48 ◼   ► money am I going to make with my software on Vision Pro?

01:02:51 ◼   ► And is that going to help pay for the $3,500?"

01:02:54 ◼   ► No.

01:02:55 ◼   ► No, it will not.

01:02:57 ◼   ► Not for a while at least.

01:02:59 ◼   ► So that's going to impact the market to some degree.

01:03:03 ◼   ► It's not going to be purchased by every iOS developer out there.

01:03:07 ◼   ► That's not going to happen for lots of reasons.

01:03:09 ◼   ► But they will be bought by some developers and some YouTubers and influencers and people

01:03:16 ◼   ► who want to try it.

01:03:17 ◼   ► Business travelers, rich people.

01:03:20 ◼   ► There is a market for it and it's going to be really fun and amazing.

01:03:24 ◼   ► But it's not going to be the next iPad or Apple Watch for a while if ever.

01:03:29 ◼   ► Yeah, I don't know what I'm going to do because I don't know that I have an overabundance

01:03:35 ◼   ► of interest from a user's perspective.

01:03:38 ◼   ► But I do feel some amount of responsibility as the developer of CallSheet.

01:03:43 ◼   ► I feel a fairly considerable amount of responsibility as one of the three hosts of this program.

01:03:49 ◼   ► And since Jon doesn't want to take the fall and it's always up to you and me to take care

01:03:52 ◼   ► of this, then…

01:03:53 ◼   ► Yeah, I bought this Mac Pro.

01:03:55 ◼   ► You've got a lot of spending to do.

01:03:57 ◼   ► I mean, only a few Vision Pros though.

01:04:00 ◼   ► Yeah, right?

01:04:01 ◼   ► Well, then again, he did option that Mac Pro.

01:04:03 ◼   ► So we're looking at like, I don't know, 10 Vision Pros.

01:04:06 ◼   ► How much did you spend on that damn thing?

01:04:07 ◼   ► It doesn't matter.

01:04:08 ◼   ► No, maybe three or four.

01:04:09 ◼   ► Yeah, but anyway, it certainly covers both of your Vision Pros.

01:04:13 ◼   ► So go ahead.

01:04:14 ◼   ► Oh, I see.

01:04:15 ◼   ► I see.

01:04:16 ◼   ► Plus you both have apps that legitimately could be on the platform.

01:04:18 ◼   ► It's not like you're just doing it for the show.

01:04:19 ◼   ► Honestly, CallSheet, it probably has a much bigger audience on Vision Pro than Overcast

01:04:22 ◼   ► does.

01:04:23 ◼   ► Exactly.

01:04:24 ◼   ► You're watching a movie, you look to your left and you say some voice thing that says,

01:04:28 ◼   ► "Who is that?"

01:04:29 ◼   ► And then your app captures the video.

01:04:31 ◼   ► No, forget it.

01:04:32 ◼   ► You can't do that.

01:04:33 ◼   ► You can't do any of that.

01:04:34 ◼   ► I think it was during the talk show that Gruber and I were talking this out and it occurred

01:04:40 ◼   ► to me that I don't think CallSheet can run side by side with a video player because the

01:04:45 ◼   ► best of my understanding, a video player is an immersive experience.

01:04:49 ◼   ► There's three different experiences.

01:04:50 ◼   ► There's the windows, I forget what they call them.

01:04:53 ◼   ► Spaces, volumes.

01:04:54 ◼   ► Spaces, that's it.

01:04:55 ◼   ► Thank you.

01:04:56 ◼   ► But I will remind you what the early versions of iOS and watchOS and iPadOS look like and

01:05:02 ◼   ► what their limitations were and how long those lasted.

01:05:04 ◼   ► So don't worry too much about it.

01:05:07 ◼   ► I know the limitations that they have now, but this is like the 1.0-iest of 1.0s and

01:05:13 ◼   ► inevitably once this product comes in contact with developers and apps and users, that is

01:05:19 ◼   ► all going to change so fast.

01:05:21 ◼   ► It even changed on the iPad eventually.

01:05:23 ◼   ► So I have much faith that applications like yours will eventually be able to do the same

01:05:27 ◼   ► things.

01:05:28 ◼   ► But I do agree with you that right now there's probably a bunch of annoying limitations that

01:05:31 ◼   ► make it difficult for you to do what you want.

01:05:33 ◼   ► And then you should give that feedback to Apple and they'll incorporate that into the

01:05:36 ◼   ► next version of the OS.

01:05:37 ◼   ► Well, honestly, first of all, I think you'll be in the clear.

01:05:41 ◼   ► Second of all, if you're not, app switching exists and people figure it out pretty quickly.

01:05:44 ◼   ► So I think you're fine either way.

01:05:48 ◼   ► But I think this is probably going to be a device that gets a lot of movie and TV watching

01:05:54 ◼   ► done on it.

01:05:55 ◼   ► So the market for a call sheet is, I think, much more direct than the market for people

01:06:02 ◼   ► who want an audio-only podcast player.

01:06:04 ◼   ► Well, they could be listening to podcasts while they're working on their spreadsheets

01:06:08 ◼   ► and their Vision Pro headset.

01:06:09 ◼   ► They can.

01:06:10 ◼   ► I mean, and that's why people use the Mac app.

01:06:12 ◼   ► It's hard for me to understand the needs of that market because I'm not a listen to podcasts

01:06:16 ◼   ► while working kind of person.

01:06:19 ◼   ► So I don't ever use Overcast on my Mac, but I use it constantly on my phone because I'm

01:06:25 ◼   ► like when I'm out and around doing stuff and walking the dog and washing dishes.

01:06:28 ◼   ► That's when I listen to podcasts.

01:06:29 ◼   ► But I don't understand how people listen to podcasts while working because my brain doesn't

01:06:32 ◼   ► work that way.

01:06:33 ◼   ► So I don't know how people are going to use it necessarily in Vision Pro, but it's not

01:06:36 ◼   ► like I can envision a situation where you might want an experience in Vision Pro where

01:06:48 ◼   ► you're transported to some place.

01:06:51 ◼   ► You want to hang out on top of a mountain and maybe just put a podcast on and listen

01:06:55 ◼   ► to it.

01:06:56 ◼   ► I can envision that being a market.

01:06:57 ◼   ► Again, I don't know how big of a market.

01:06:59 ◼   ► Maybe a few hundred people in the first year.

01:07:02 ◼   ► It's not going to be a big market, but I can envision use cases like that.

01:07:08 ◼   ► The Vision Pro is a very broad product.

01:07:11 ◼   ► It can do a lot of things.

01:07:13 ◼   ► We don't really know yet what is going to be its most popular uses, but I can hazard

01:07:20 ◼   ► a guess that it's going to be very consumption focused in practice.

01:07:26 ◼   ► Very much like the iPad where I think there will be people who will do productivity work

01:07:32 ◼   ► on it, but I don't think that's going to be the most common case.

01:07:35 ◼   ► I think it is much more likely that people will use it more for media consumption and

01:07:42 ◼   ► immersive experience consumption than doing your spreadsheets and email.

01:07:47 ◼   ► I think, again, you will be able to do your spreadsheets and email in it.

01:07:50 ◼   ► I don't see that being a huge part of its use case.

01:07:54 ◼   ► Are people going to listen to audio podcasts?

01:07:58 ◼   ► While they watch videos, probably not, but while they sit on a mountaintop, maybe.

01:08:03 ◼   ► So again, this all remains to be seen.

01:08:06 ◼   ► It is a very clear cut case for CallSheet because there's going to be, I think, a lot

01:08:10 ◼   ► of video watching in this device.

01:08:11 ◼   ► Yeah, we'll see, but I am not looking forward to spending $3,500 plus on something that

01:08:19 ◼   ► its use as a person to me, I'm not entirely convinced yet.

01:08:24 ◼   ► But again, you know what?

01:08:25 ◼   ► You're going to have one on day one.

01:08:26 ◼   ► I think I'm going to have, I've convinced myself I need to.

01:08:29 ◼   ► You're going to buy it and you're going to grumble about the price and you're going to

01:08:32 ◼   ► love it.

01:08:33 ◼   ► I am going to buy it.

01:08:34 ◼   ► I'm going to grumble about the price.

01:08:35 ◼   ► I think I'll say it's extremely cool.

01:08:37 ◼   ► The question is, will I pick it up after completing whatever I need to do with CallSheet?

01:08:41 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:08:42 ◼   ► Maybe I will.

01:08:43 ◼   ► Maybe I'll love it.

01:08:44 ◼   ► I don't know, but we'll see.

01:08:45 ◼   ► Gosh, I wish I could talk about what happened at the labs.

01:08:47 ◼   ► Anyway.

01:08:48 ◼   ► I know me too.

01:08:49 ◼   ► I'm dying here.

01:08:50 ◼   ► It's killing me.

01:08:51 ◼   ► All right, Jon, tell us about OLED iPads.

01:08:52 ◼   ► What do we think is happening there?

01:08:55 ◼   ► We just both talked about Vision Pro, but OLED iPads are the product that I'm most excited

01:08:59 ◼   ► about for 2020 far from Apple, believe it or not, because I am for sure going to buy

01:09:04 ◼   ► these if they are OLED iPads because I use my iPad to watch video all the time and an

01:09:12 ◼   ► OLED iPad would do a better job of showing video because it would have better black levels.

01:09:16 ◼   ► I want this so bad and it hasn't been that long since I got my iPad.

01:09:23 ◼   ► I have an M1 iPad.

01:09:24 ◼   ► It's not that old, but the OLED screen is reason enough for me to upgrade.

01:09:28 ◼   ► For the wider market, as we've discussed in the past, we hope that they rationalize the

01:09:32 ◼   ► iPad line, update the pros to have the landscape camera, figure out what they're going to do

01:09:35 ◼   ► with the pencil.

01:09:37 ◼   ► After taking the year off, essentially, 2023, the iPad took that whole year off.

01:09:41 ◼   ► All we got was the weird pencil.

01:09:43 ◼   ► 2024 is the year of actually releasing iPads, some of which we hope are good.

01:09:50 ◼   ► The only reason I highlight this as item number two is because this is the one I'm definitely

01:09:53 ◼   ► going to buy.

01:09:54 ◼   ► You two are going to try to get Vision Pros if you possibly can if they don't sell out

01:09:56 ◼   ► in the first 30 seconds.

01:09:58 ◼   ► I am absolutely buying an iPad and I think I'll have an easier time getting one and it

01:10:01 ◼   ► will be cheaper.

01:10:02 ◼   ► Yeah, well, it's hard to be more expensive.

01:10:04 ◼   ► Well, if you got the 8TB model, maybe it would be the same price.

01:10:07 ◼   ► We'll see.

01:10:08 ◼   ► And by the way, Vision Pro starting at $3,500.

01:10:10 ◼   ► We don't know the details of that statement yet.

01:10:12 ◼   ► All they said was starting at $3,500.

01:10:15 ◼   ► Each individual prescription lens is $1,500.

01:10:18 ◼   ► These are Porsche option prices.

01:10:20 ◼   ► I know you're joking, but it wouldn't surprise me if they are hilariously expensive.

01:10:24 ◼   ► Yeah, blue stitching, an extra $400.

01:10:26 ◼   ► Just hope that you can't adjust the storage at all.

01:10:30 ◼   ► Well, but what is the storage going to be used for?

01:10:33 ◼   ► How many people buying it will even know yet?

01:10:36 ◼   ► I don't know how much storage I need on my Vision Pro.

01:10:38 ◼   ► I have no idea.

01:10:39 ◼   ► Better get the big one, I guess.

01:10:42 ◼   ► Well, or do you want to invest that much extra money in version 1.0 that's going to be obsolete

01:10:47 ◼   ► first?

01:10:48 ◼   ► I get the big Apple TV.

01:10:50 ◼   ► It's a little bit less expensive, but you know.

01:10:52 ◼   ► Yeah, it's like what, is it $50, $30?

01:10:54 ◼   ► Yeah, exactly.

01:10:55 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:10:56 ◼   ► And the iPad I think is going to be, I've kind of fallen out of using the iPad for almost

01:11:00 ◼   ► anything, but I go in phases.

01:11:02 ◼   ► I go up and down.

01:11:03 ◼   ► I'm sure when they launch, I'm going to be like, "Oh, I want that," because it's new

01:11:06 ◼   ► and shiny and OLED.

01:11:07 ◼   ► And I'll rationalize myself buying one for some reason.

01:11:09 ◼   ► Especially if it's dual layer OLED screen that some of the rumors are interested.

01:11:13 ◼   ► Super bright, really amazing quality.

01:11:15 ◼   ► It would essentially be the best quality screen available on an Apple product because it will

01:11:19 ◼   ► surpass the LCD, mini LED things on the MacBook Pros and certainly surpass the XDR.

01:11:25 ◼   ► Yeah, that would be great.

01:11:28 ◼   ► But I'm mostly just curious to see what they do with the iPad Pro especially because the

01:11:35 ◼   ► iPad Pro has not seen a meaningful update redesign since 2018.

01:11:41 ◼   ► It is pretty long in the tooth now.

01:11:44 ◼   ► I really want to know, do they address things like the pencil attachment mechanism, any

01:11:50 ◼   ► kind of pencil charging changes because there's rumors that there's going to be a new Pro

01:11:54 ◼   ► Pencil as well.

01:11:55 ◼   ► What do they do about where the camera is?

01:11:57 ◼   ► One of the biggest annoyances of using the iPad Pro for me is that the camera is still

01:12:01 ◼   ► on the short side and I'm almost 100% using it in the little keyboard flappy thing.

01:12:07 ◼   ► Not the Magic Trackpad equipped one, the one before that, the straight one that Craig Federighi

01:12:11 ◼   ► uses.

01:12:13 ◼   ► So I use that one and so the camera is always right under my left hand.

01:12:19 ◼   ► When you pick up the iPad, it is directly under where you pick it up by.

01:12:23 ◼   ► And it warns you about it, which is when you have to add a software feature to compensate

01:12:26 ◼   ► for a hardware thing, that's when you know the hardware thing has outlived its useful

01:12:30 ◼   ► life.

01:12:31 ◼   ► Yeah, and they did update one of the lower end iPads to have the camera on the long edge

01:12:37 ◼   ► like a laptop.

01:12:38 ◼   ► So if you're holding it in landscape, it's in the top middle.

01:12:40 ◼   ► That I think is the clear answer for where it should be on the iPad Pro and probably

01:12:45 ◼   ► on all iPads as well.

01:12:47 ◼   ► But it interferes with where the pencil attaches right now in the current iPad Pro.

01:12:51 ◼   ► So this is a question like, where do you put the pencil?

01:12:54 ◼   ► If you put it on the short side, that has other downsides.

01:12:58 ◼   ► You can still put it on the long side but change where the magnets are so you can fit

01:13:02 ◼   ► the camera between them or something.

01:13:04 ◼   ► There's options.

01:13:05 ◼   ► Yeah, that's what everyone assumes they're going to do.

01:13:06 ◼   ► That's the whole reason for the new pencil.

01:13:08 ◼   ► I'm sure the pencil will have new features but the main reason is, oh, we have to rejigger

01:13:11 ◼   ► the internals to make room for the camera that's on the long side and that'll be the

01:13:15 ◼   ► Apple Pencil 3 or whatever.

01:13:17 ◼   ► And I just want to say that if they come out with the new iPad and it has a OLED screen

01:13:21 ◼   ► and they change nothing else about it, I'm still getting it.

01:13:23 ◼   ► Because I'm not going to be like, oh, I'm going to wait until they have the landscape

01:13:26 ◼   ► camera.

01:13:27 ◼   ► That's not what I'm using the iPad for.

01:13:28 ◼   ► I do have a pencil and I do use it and it is annoying that my hand covers the FaceTime

01:13:33 ◼   ► camera and everything like that but still, no matter what they do, if they do like the

01:13:38 ◼   ► new Mac Pro that launched this very podcast, it's exactly the same iPad as we have now.

01:13:45 ◼   ► The only difference is a new OLED screen, I'm still getting it.

01:13:48 ◼   ► I mean, that would still be a huge upgrade.

01:13:49 ◼   ► And it would be incredibly disappointing to everybody but me.

01:13:52 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:13:53 ◼   ► But I do hope there's more.

01:13:55 ◼   ► I mean, as you mentioned, 2023, there were literally no new iPads released and the state

01:14:01 ◼   ► of the iPad lineup, as we discussed previously, is really messy right now because it seems

01:14:04 ◼   ► like they're halfway through multiple different important transitions, things like moving

01:14:10 ◼   ► the camera, unifying the pencils, stuff like this.

01:14:12 ◼   ► There's a lot of half done transitions in the iPad lineup.

01:14:16 ◼   ► There's way too many iPads.

01:14:18 ◼   ► The differentiation between them is odd and confusing.

01:14:21 ◼   ► There's lots of like, you know, little nitpicks of like, well, you can use this keyboard with

01:14:25 ◼   ► this one but not with this very similar one.

01:14:27 ◼   ► They have three different iPads that are all like within a half inch screen size of each

01:14:30 ◼   ► other.

01:14:31 ◼   ► Like it's really, it's a weird lineup.

01:14:33 ◼   ► What I expect and hope from 2024 for the iPad is for us to finally get the answer of like,

01:14:39 ◼   ► where is the iPad going and give us a coherent lineup that puts us there.

01:14:44 ◼   ► That I really hope for and I think is likely to actually happen.

01:14:48 ◼   ► I'm sure they're going to do the thing where they keep around an old model of the cheap

01:14:51 ◼   ► one, but they're already still doing that.

01:14:54 ◼   ► So they currently have two base models basically, like the more modern design one and the one

01:15:00 ◼   ► that still has the home button and the forehead and chin.

01:15:03 ◼   ► And so hopefully they're able to get rid of the home button one and finally move the more

01:15:06 ◼   ► modern one down to that slot and then give us the new base model.

01:15:11 ◼   ► So there's a lot to do in the iPad lineup.

01:15:14 ◼   ► It seems like they're slated to do all of it this year basically, because I think every

01:15:19 ◼   ► iPad approximately is due for an update.

01:15:21 ◼   ► So we will see.

01:15:23 ◼   ► I hope they do it.

01:15:24 ◼   ► I hope they do a good job and I hope whatever changes are coming to the iPad Pro were worth

01:15:30 ◼   ► the wait from 2018.

01:15:31 ◼   ► - Fair enough.

01:15:33 ◼   ► All right, M3 Ultra, maybe in the Mac studio, perhaps in a new Mac Pro.

01:15:40 ◼   ► What do we think about that?

01:15:41 ◼   ► - I mean, I guess really this could have been inverted, but it shows where my interest lies.

01:15:46 ◼   ► The Mac Studio and Mac Pro are due to be updated this year.

01:15:50 ◼   ► They will presumably get the M3 Ultra, which is a chip that we assume will exist, and it

01:15:53 ◼   ► will just be two M3 Maxes stuck together in the usual way.

01:15:56 ◼   ► But the thing is the M3 Max is amazing and two of them will be twice as amazing.

01:16:00 ◼   ► So that will be a really good chip.

01:16:02 ◼   ► And despite the fact that the Mac Studio will surely come with the M3 Max, it will also

01:16:07 ◼   ► come with the M3 Ultra and that's gonna really differentiate it from the rest of the product

01:16:10 ◼   ► plan.

01:16:11 ◼   ► I don't expect any other changes to these products other than them just existing and

01:16:16 ◼   ► getting the new chip.

01:16:17 ◼   ► And for the Mac Studio, I think that's fine.

01:16:19 ◼   ► And for the Mac Pro, it is exactly as disappointing as last year's Mac Pro.

01:16:23 ◼   ► No change there.

01:16:25 ◼   ► In particular, the M3 Ultra Max Studio, I feel like is becoming increasingly essential

01:16:31 ◼   ► for Apple's supposed ambitions in gaming.

01:16:35 ◼   ► They have a long way to go there, but it is nice to be able to have something that they

01:16:40 ◼   ► sell that has more GPU grunt than a laptop, right?

01:16:44 ◼   ► And the Mac Studio is gonna have twice as much GPU grunt as their fastest laptop because

01:16:48 ◼   ► it'll have two M3 Maxes in there with twice the GPU grunt.

01:16:52 ◼   ► Does that make a difference for the tiny amount of games that exist?

01:16:55 ◼   ► Well, probably not, but at the very least, again, we'll see how it performs in the benchmarks,

01:17:01 ◼   ► but something better than a laptop is kind of one of those like really low bar that Apple

01:17:08 ◼   ► needs to clear to start taking itself seriously as a gaming company.

01:17:12 ◼   ► And we've discussed this many times at best.

01:17:14 ◼   ► It's great that they've raised the floor, that none of their computers stink anymore.

01:17:18 ◼   ► They're all pretty good, but you gotta have at least one really good one, one pretty okay

01:17:24 ◼   ► one.

01:17:25 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

01:17:26 ◼   ► And that is the role of the M3 Ultra.

01:17:27 ◼   ► It's not the Mac Pro.

01:17:28 ◼   ► It's the most popular thing for games, but the Mac Studio is small, cheaper than the

01:17:33 ◼   ► Mac Pro.

01:17:34 ◼   ► And, you know, it'll, it should be, you know, close to twice as fast when running game stuff

01:17:40 ◼   ► because it's got twice the GPU.

01:17:41 ◼   ► So I'm looking forward to it.

01:17:42 ◼   ► I'm not planning on buying that.

01:17:44 ◼   ► I'm still, you know, again, my, the clock on my 2019 Mac Pro is mostly dictated by Apple.

01:17:50 ◼   ► I was thinking over the holiday that like, how long would I be willing to keep using

01:17:55 ◼   ► this Mac Pro after Apple stops supporting it with the latest version of Mac OS?

01:17:59 ◼   ► And I think that is a non-zero amount of time for me because I do want to wait to buy at

01:18:05 ◼   ► the right time.

01:18:06 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

01:18:07 ◼   ► I want, I'm impressed by the M3 series, especially the M3 Max.

01:18:11 ◼   ► The M3 Max is often benchmarking at higher than the M2 Ultra in certain tests, right?

01:18:16 ◼   ► So I feel like they're, they're pressing on the high end.

01:18:19 ◼   ► I want to see what an M4 or an M5 looks like if I can hold out that long.

01:18:23 ◼   ► So that's all.

01:18:25 ◼   ► I just, I look forward to these computers existing and I look forward to seeing the

01:18:28 ◼   ► benchmarks and I'm ready to continue to be disappointed by the Mac Pro.

01:18:34 ◼   ► So what is, what is the current plan as of the beginning of 2024 when Apple says no more

01:18:41 ◼   ► new Mac OS releases for Intel, do you immediately buy a Apple Silicon Mac Pro?

01:18:48 ◼   ► Do you just, do you slum it and buy a studio?

01:18:50 ◼   ► No, no.

01:18:51 ◼   ► I'm, I'm willing, I'm willing to be in, you know, it's stuck in amber of like, okay, uh,

01:18:58 ◼   ► there, it's not supported anymore.

01:18:59 ◼   ► I'm just going to keep using it after the version is released that I can't run anymore.

01:19:06 ◼   ► How long will I last in that state?

01:19:08 ◼   ► I don't know.

01:19:09 ◼   ► If you'd asked me before, I'd say, well, as soon as that happens, I'm going to buy one.

01:19:11 ◼   ► So I'm never going to be in that state.

01:19:12 ◼   ► But now I'm thinking that I am willing to be on the previous year's OS that Marco can

01:19:18 ◼   ► never remember the name of, uh, for a non-zero amount of time.

01:19:22 ◼   ► Is that going to be six months?

01:19:23 ◼   ► Is that going to be a year?

01:19:24 ◼   ► It's kind of be like me and buying TVs.

01:19:26 ◼   ► Like I want to pick the right time to buy.

01:19:28 ◼   ► I, I w ideally I would like to wait to see them do something more than the current ultra

01:19:35 ◼   ► strategy with their top end chip.

01:19:37 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

01:19:38 ◼   ► Even I, even if I buy it in a Mac studio, I would love to see, as we discussed in the

01:19:41 ◼   ► past, a different packaging arrangement or, you know, something different than we seem

01:19:45 ◼   ► to do with them one through M three for, with respect to the ultra, right?

01:19:49 ◼   ► If I can hold out that long, I will, if I can't, then I'll just get an M four ultra

01:19:52 ◼   ► max studio.

01:19:53 ◼   ► Like that's my plan essentially.

01:19:54 ◼   ► Like whatever, whatever that is, when the time comes when I just can't hold that any

01:19:58 ◼   ► longer and it's just untenable and I, you know, maybe I need to update it to, to, to

01:20:03 ◼   ► do dev work on my apps or whatever, whatever the situation is when I get pressed to do

01:20:06 ◼   ► it.

01:20:07 ◼   ► If assuming there's still the Mac pro is still like it is, I'm going to end up getting a

01:20:11 ◼   ► max studio with whatever the best ultra is.

01:20:13 ◼   ► Cause well, I know we're going off on a tangent and it's my fault, but what do you feel like

01:20:19 ◼   ► your Mac pro is uniquely good at that the studio isn't, I know the obvious answer is

01:20:24 ◼   ► gaming now, but that won't be the, that's not likely to be the case in any future Mac

01:20:28 ◼   ► pro.

01:20:29 ◼   ► So like you're not, you don't have 340 hard drives in there.

01:20:31 ◼   ► Do you?

01:20:32 ◼   ► I mean, I do have a bunch.

01:20:34 ◼   ► I have, I have all my storage is internal.

01:20:36 ◼   ► Well, except for my windows drive, which is external, but I do like my, I have an internal,

01:20:40 ◼   ► why is that external?

01:20:41 ◼   ► If everything else is internal, I have an internal.

01:20:43 ◼   ► I have an internal time machine drive at an internal super duper clone.

01:20:45 ◼   ► And then I have the regular boot disc and I have swapped video cards many times.

01:20:49 ◼   ► And I know what you're saying.

01:20:50 ◼   ► Like, well, you're not gonna be able to run PC games because it's not X86 yada yada.

01:20:54 ◼   ► But I do want to buy something with GPU grunt that essentially is going to be sitting there

01:20:58 ◼   ► idle in the hopes that Apple's gaming strategy bears fruit or at the worst case that I can

01:21:05 ◼   ► boot into Linux and play like steam games that are for the steam deck.

01:21:08 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

01:21:09 ◼   ► Like I want the GPU grunt to be there speculatively.

01:21:12 ◼   ► Like I don't, I, it is not as sure thing as I, Hey, I can, I can put this thing into windows

01:21:16 ◼   ► and play windows games.

01:21:17 ◼   ► That is a sure thing, right?

01:21:18 ◼   ► It's easy to know why am I getting, why do I want a Mac with more GPU grunt?

01:21:23 ◼   ► That's speculative.

01:21:24 ◼   ► That's me crossing my fingers and saying, boy, I hope I can do something gaming related

01:21:29 ◼   ► with this extra GPU grunt.

01:21:31 ◼   ► And you know, maybe I'll get burned.

01:21:32 ◼   ► Maybe it'll turns out that for the millionth time Apple's gaming strategy won't work out

01:21:35 ◼   ► and I can't run windows and I can't run Linux games with proton and stuff.

01:21:40 ◼   ► But that's the plan.

01:21:41 ◼   ► Why won't you put your windows boot drive in your, in the, in the machine?

01:21:45 ◼   ► You feel like it's tainting it, don't you?

01:21:47 ◼   ► I mean, that's a yes.

01:21:48 ◼   ► It's mostly because like the windows boot drive.

01:21:51 ◼   ► Yeah, I, it probably should be inside the machine, but the tainting is not the reason

01:21:56 ◼   ► I did it, but it's kind of, it goes on one of my crappier SSDs cause you know, it doesn't

01:22:01 ◼   ► really matter.

01:22:02 ◼   ► And I think it's changed a few times and it was such a pain to get it working on the external

01:22:05 ◼   ► one.

01:22:06 ◼   ► That was kind of like sunk cost fallacy.

01:22:07 ◼   ► But uh, anyway, yeah, I'm probably, I think this thing is probably in its final or, or

01:22:10 ◼   ► arrangement of components after many, many swaps and stuff where it's, it's all solid

01:22:14 ◼   ► state.

01:22:15 ◼   ► It's got that one external, Oh, you know what I mean?

01:22:17 ◼   ► When I do this, when I did the Sonoma drive, that was also external cause that's like a

01:22:20 ◼   ► throwaway one that I'm constantly erasing and stuff and I use it on different computers.

01:22:23 ◼   ► So fair enough.

01:22:25 ◼   ► All right.

01:22:26 ◼   ► I phone 16 I don't know too much of what to expect from this.

01:22:30 ◼   ► Obviously we've talked about the capture button, which I think could be very interesting and

01:22:34 ◼   ► I'm optimistic about that.

01:22:36 ◼   ► I'm slightly terrified about dropping the five X, uh, tetra prison thing into the regular

01:22:42 ◼   ► size phones.

01:22:43 ◼   ► Cause I don't know which one I would buy then cause I both like and you don't know you would,

01:22:48 ◼   ► you would come back to the medium side.

01:22:50 ◼   ► I think I would, I think I would, especially since the rumor is that the 16 is going to

01:22:54 ◼   ► be actually be a little bit bigger than the 15 again.

01:22:57 ◼   ► They're doing it again.

01:22:58 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:22:59 ◼   ► I think what they're, I think the thing that they're doing, remember that the 15 shrunk

01:23:03 ◼   ► because they shrunk the bezels all around it and everything.

01:23:06 ◼   ► I think they're essentially not undoing that, but making the screen bigger by an old bezels

01:23:12 ◼   ► with just to give themselves more room internally for the tetra prison camera and a bunch of

01:23:16 ◼   ► other stuff.

01:23:17 ◼   ► And honestly I'm fine with that because I'm, I'm using a 14 pro now and the 14 pro is bigger

01:23:21 ◼   ► than the 15 pro.

01:23:22 ◼   ► So like 15 pro shrunk a little bit.

01:23:24 ◼   ► It sounds like a 16 is going to be the same size as my current phone.

01:23:26 ◼   ► And keep in mind that I am buying the 16 cause that's my phone year.

01:23:29 ◼   ► So from my perspective, the 16 will be the same size as my current phone.

01:23:32 ◼   ► But from your perspective, it'll be a little bit bigger than your 15 pro.

01:23:35 ◼   ► And from Casey's perspective, it'll be way smaller than that stupid pop saga thing you've

01:23:39 ◼   ► got.

01:23:40 ◼   ► That's true.

01:23:41 ◼   ► Uh, no, I mean there are, there are some things I like about this phone, but I do miss having

01:23:45 ◼   ► a phone that you can legitimately without worry, without a dongle on the back or you

01:23:49 ◼   ► know, a wart on the back.

01:23:51 ◼   ► Use one handed, you know, I, I don't have gigantic, gigantic hands like, you know, Mike

01:23:56 ◼   ► Hurley does.

01:23:57 ◼   ► And so I really do need some sort of afford affordance on there.

01:24:01 ◼   ► And so I am cautious, cautiously, and tentatively optimistic that maybe I would be able to go

01:24:07 ◼   ► back to the, you know, human size phone again, which I think would be kind of nice.

01:24:11 ◼   ► I'll miss the real estate and I'll miss maybe the battery life, although that hasn't been

01:24:15 ◼   ► as night and day as I had expected, but it would be nice to have a phone I can use one

01:24:19 ◼   ► handed again.

01:24:20 ◼   ► So I don't know.

01:24:21 ◼   ► Marco, what are your thoughts on the iPhone 16?

01:24:24 ◼   ► We don't know a ton about it yet, but you know, if the rumors are true that it's going

01:24:29 ◼   ► to be, you know, adding capture button and giving me the five excellent.

01:24:33 ◼   ► That's great.

01:24:34 ◼   ► I am looking forward to that because the five excellent.

01:24:36 ◼   ► I am super envious of whenever I have a moment to see tips or to use it.

01:24:40 ◼   ► I'm always like, man, I wish I had this in my phone, but I don't wish enough to get the

01:24:43 ◼   ► giant phone.

01:24:44 ◼   ► So again, hopefully, hopefully I get that.

01:24:49 ◼   ► And otherwise I don't really know.

01:24:50 ◼   ► I'm very, this is what happens every year.

01:24:52 ◼   ► I'm very happy with the iPhone I have now.

01:24:55 ◼   ► But you know, I'm sure they'll find a way to maybe want to buy the new, this will have

01:24:59 ◼   ► the realigned cameras on both of them, by the way, on both the 16 and the 16 pro like

01:25:03 ◼   ► the real line cameras for spatial video, because they'll both be able to do it with the, and

01:25:06 ◼   ► the rumor is also that they'll both have the capture button.

01:25:08 ◼   ► It won't be a pro only feature.

01:25:10 ◼   ► So and there are some, I mean, we talked about this a million times when we were talking

01:25:14 ◼   ► about the SOCs, like what are they going to do?

01:25:16 ◼   ► Is there going to be a 18 pro and an 18?

01:25:18 ◼   ► Are they going to reunify?

01:25:19 ◼   ► Are they going to be split?

01:25:21 ◼   ► Is there going to be a one that's like last year's model, but with GPU things that we

01:25:25 ◼   ► don't know what they were going to do with the SOCs, but it seems like from the physical

01:25:28 ◼   ► feature sets, they're both going to have the aligned cameras and they're both going to

01:25:31 ◼   ► have the capture button.

01:25:32 ◼   ► I still, at this early stage, I still feel like the capture button is kind of like the

01:25:35 ◼   ► solid state volume buttons and it's the type of thing that we could be hearing plans from

01:25:40 ◼   ► back in time.

01:25:41 ◼   ► And really that decision was reversed and we won't know about it until the next round

01:25:44 ◼   ► of rumors comes out.

01:25:45 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

01:25:46 ◼   ► And maybe there just won't be a capture button and we'll wait till next year.

01:25:48 ◼   ► But from what I've heard, it sounds like the 16 line will be more unified and coherent

01:25:53 ◼   ► than the 15 one was, but we'll see.

01:25:56 ◼   ► It's a long ways off.

01:25:57 ◼   ► You know, the iPhone is, especially with no rumors about anything radical, it's just like,

01:26:03 ◼   ► oh, it's a year where they're consolidating gains from the previous phones and you know,

01:26:08 ◼   ► it's not, every year the iPhone is good.

01:26:10 ◼   ► I don't think there's any chance of it being terrible, but I don't think there's much chance

01:26:13 ◼   ► either of it being something like an iPhone 10 type of revelation.

01:26:16 ◼   ► Yeah, yeah.

01:26:17 ◼   ► Actually, and I'm glad you brought up the spatial video thing, Jon, because that I think

01:26:22 ◼   ► would be a huge motivator.

01:26:23 ◼   ► If it can take spatial video better than 1080p 30, which is very restrictive.

01:26:29 ◼   ► Yeah, that might be a differentiator on the pro.

01:26:31 ◼   ► Like they'll both have the aligned cameras for spatial video and the rumor is that the

01:26:36 ◼   ► ultra wide that is aligned with it is going to be 48 megapixel and maybe only on the pro

01:26:40 ◼   ► you'll get, you know, better frame rates, better resolution, whatever.

01:26:43 ◼   ► And look, I know this decision's already been made 15 years ago, but if you have to raise

01:26:48 ◼   ► either the frame rate or the resolution and you can't do both, give me the frame rate,

01:26:52 ◼   ► please.

01:26:53 ◼   ► I think the GPS is tough.

01:26:56 ◼   ► I think with the vision pro, I think the resolution may have more bang for the buck because it's

01:27:00 ◼   ► so big in your fields of vision.

01:27:01 ◼   ► You know what I mean?

01:27:03 ◼   ► I'm not allowed to tell you whether I know what you mean.

01:27:05 ◼   ► Uh, anyway, I guess, I mean, Casey and Gruber discussed it with like, it's not as big as

01:27:10 ◼   ► panoramas.

01:27:11 ◼   ► Panoramas is where it suffers the most according to Gruber, but the spatial video is apparently

01:27:14 ◼   ► smaller, but still it's pretty big.

01:27:17 ◼   ► I definitely can't tell you any of that.

01:27:18 ◼   ► However, I can tell you, I really want more resolution out of my cameras now.

01:27:22 ◼   ► More frame rate, do you mean?

01:27:23 ◼   ► Both.

01:27:24 ◼   ► Well, I would suggest for panoramas, you would probably want a lot of resolution.

01:27:29 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:27:30 ◼   ► Like one of the things that I am really looking forward to in the vision pro, Merlin introduced

01:27:35 ◼   ► me to this, this poly cam app where it basically, it's one of these apps that uses like the

01:27:41 ◼   ► LIDAR and the cameras and everything and you can, you can make like a 3d, you can 3d capture

01:27:45 ◼   ► and make a floor plan or a whole like 3d map of a room.

01:27:50 ◼   ► As long as your room is not filled with junk.

01:27:52 ◼   ► I know from experience.

01:27:53 ◼   ► Right.

01:27:54 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:27:55 ◼   ► But you know, but like that's, that's a really cool thing.

01:27:56 ◼   ► I'm looking forward to just like, I don't know if you can even do this yet on vision

01:28:00 ◼   ► pro, but I'm sure it will come fairly soon if you can't like whatever standard, you know,

01:28:05 ◼   ► usdz scene formats that these kinds of things can output.

01:28:08 ◼   ► I want to be able to capture a place with my iPhone using something like poly cam and

01:28:14 ◼   ► then be able to like be in it in the vision pro at a later time.

01:28:18 ◼   ► Like, Oh, what was it like to be, you know, in my, in my room in this one apartment that

01:28:22 ◼   ► I captured, you know, and then I don't live there anymore.

01:28:24 ◼   ► Like that kind of thing.

01:28:25 ◼   ► Like that, that would be so cool to me.

01:28:27 ◼   ► What, you know, what was like on this vacation?

01:28:28 ◼   ► What was our hotel room like, uh, you know, what was my kid's room like when he was this

01:28:32 ◼   ► age?

01:28:33 ◼   ► I would love to be able to capture that kind of stuff and then kind of just experience

01:28:37 ◼   ► it in the vision pro.

01:28:39 ◼   ► And I think one thing that you will probably, um, w w want if we see that is the most resolution

01:28:47 ◼   ► possible on those captures because what you're, what you are seeing in the vision pro, the,

01:28:53 ◼   ► the field of view it is simulating is massive compared to a, you know, a phone or a computer

01:28:59 ◼   ► screen.

01:29:00 ◼   ► So the pictures that we take today on our, on our, you know, little iPhone camera sensors

01:29:04 ◼   ► or whatever, you know, a single picture.

01:29:06 ◼   ► Yeah, that looks great on your phone.

01:29:08 ◼   ► If you're lucky, it might look okay on your laptop screen, but when you put it onto like

01:29:13 ◼   ► a 50 foot tall virtual screen or something, that's a different experience.

01:29:17 ◼   ► That's also when people, uh, complain that I'm nitpicking when I said, well, iPhone photos

01:29:21 ◼   ► are fine unless you're picks a quote unquote pixel peeping.

01:29:24 ◼   ► Well guess what?

01:29:25 ◼   ► Everyone inside of vision pro is pixel peeping.

01:29:27 ◼   ► Everything is so much bigger.

01:29:28 ◼   ► It's going to be the side of a, of a billboard.

01:29:31 ◼   ► And suddenly you see, I mean, we talked about last time with the picture of you, uh, towing

01:29:35 ◼   ► your car on the beach and what a mess it made of your face because it was low light.

01:29:39 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:29:40 ◼   ► That's not, you're not going to need to pixel peep to see that when it's 50 feet tall in

01:29:43 ◼   ► front of you.

01:29:44 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:29:45 ◼   ► So I think the, the rise of these, you know, headsets, whether it's division pro or the

01:29:51 ◼   ► quest series or whatever, like the rise of these headsets, I think is going to increase

01:29:55 ◼   ► the demand for much higher resolution phone cameras basically that can actually capture

01:30:02 ◼   ► a lot more detail of our surroundings and our experiences that we go through in life.

01:30:07 ◼   ► And you know, and, and maybe even, you know, big cameras might have a small resurgence

01:30:11 ◼   ► because there are so much higher resolution, but I think it ultimately like it has to go

01:30:14 ◼   ► in the phones.

01:30:15 ◼   ► Like this has to be, and maybe they'll just do it with, with a bunch of, you know, combination

01:30:21 ◼   ► capture, like, okay, we'll take this.

01:30:22 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:30:23 ◼   ► That's a big, big, big cameras do that.

01:30:25 ◼   ► Speaking of big cameras, the cameras with huge sensors with huge, like big mirrorless

01:30:29 ◼   ► cameras with like 60 megapixel sensors also have a mode where they will take 75 pictures

01:30:33 ◼   ► and stitch them together for massive resolution.

01:30:35 ◼   ► And the phones should, I mean, that's what panorama is.

01:30:37 ◼   ► It's taking a bunch of captures and stitching them together.

01:30:40 ◼   ► Uh, that, that kind of technology.

01:30:43 ◼   ► Like you're not, you can't just keep adding megapixels.

01:30:44 ◼   ► It's not going to work, especially with the phone.

01:30:46 ◼   ► But what you can do is get more and more intelligent modes of taking a whole bunch of 48 megapixel

01:30:51 ◼   ► captures and weaving them together into something that looks better and better inside vision

01:30:55 ◼   ► pro.

01:30:56 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:30:57 ◼   ► And you know, talking about like, you know, as, as the vision pro market very slowly grows

01:31:00 ◼   ► over time, that will give the iPhone a chance to have its cameras grow too.

01:31:05 ◼   ► Because if the vision pro takes off, um, and, and if it, if it sticks around for the long

01:31:11 ◼   ► haul and becomes something that, that a lot of us really want and enjoy, you're going

01:31:14 ◼   ► to want the highest resolution captures possible.

01:31:17 ◼   ► And current phone stuff, again, it looks great on the phone.

01:31:20 ◼   ► Um, but when you blow it up, like it doesn't, most phone pictures don't even look that good

01:31:24 ◼   ► on my pro display XDR.

01:31:26 ◼   ► And that is in the scale of what the vision pro is giving us.

01:31:30 ◼   ► The XDR is like a relatively tiny app window for the vision pro.

01:31:35 ◼   ► Uh, so you know, it's, it's a very different scale that we're talking about of experiencing

01:31:40 ◼   ► our media and there's going to be just demand for infinitely higher resolution.

01:31:45 ◼   ► That's why, uh, as a consumption device is another thing in its favor because in the

01:31:50 ◼   ► beginning, uh, you know, professional companies that can take very expensive, huge cameras

01:31:55 ◼   ► and actually capture massive resolution.

01:31:58 ◼   ► They're the only, that's the only content that's going to be available that can truly

01:32:01 ◼   ► take advantage of the, you know, the vision pro with all the resolution that's available

01:32:06 ◼   ► as you turn your head around and regular people won't be able to make that certainly not with

01:32:10 ◼   ► their iPhones.

01:32:11 ◼   ► And most people aren't going to buy like the weird 360 camera rigs that stitch together

01:32:14 ◼   ► these high megapixel images, but some companies will be able to like Apple and other companies

01:32:19 ◼   ► who can essentially ship an app that is the equivalent of the single app ebook.

01:32:23 ◼   ► Remember those days on the, on the, right.

01:32:26 ◼   ► It's just like, what is this?

01:32:27 ◼   ► It's an app that just shows you a bunch of places, but we captured them with our camera

01:32:30 ◼   ► equipment that costs as much as your house.

01:32:31 ◼   ► Yeah, it's 60 gigs.

01:32:33 ◼   ► You can't capture this, but we captured it and it looks amazing.

01:32:37 ◼   ► You're just going to want to sit here and listen to podcasts and Marco's app.

01:32:42 ◼   ► Maybe I should do that.

01:32:43 ◼   ► Maybe that, maybe that's my app.

01:32:44 ◼   ► Maybe it's like I create an immersive experience that I, you know, I like film some mountains

01:32:48 ◼   ► somewhere with some crazy camera.

01:32:50 ◼   ► It gives you an excuse to buy another $200,000 worth of a 3d video capture equipment and

01:32:56 ◼   ► then go on top of a mountain.

01:32:57 ◼   ► I definitely have not recently purchased a very high resolution camera.

01:33:01 ◼   ► Oh gosh.

01:33:02 ◼   ► All right.

01:33:03 ◼   ► After show, um, Apple watch 10.

01:33:05 ◼   ► I'm excited to see, I got to imagine they're going to make this look different and I'm

01:33:09 ◼   ► excited to see what that looks like.

01:33:11 ◼   ► I mean, some people keep saying with the Roman numeral X 10, right?

01:33:15 ◼   ► It's like, Oh, it's, that'll be like the iPhone 10 or Mac OS 10.

01:33:17 ◼   ► It'll be the time they changed the form factor, but what if they're not ready to change the

01:33:20 ◼   ► form factor?

01:33:21 ◼   ► Then it's just going to be Apple watch 10 with the one and a zero and we'll, we'll worry

01:33:25 ◼   ► about it next year.

01:33:26 ◼   ► Like this would be a convenient time, but sometimes convenient times don't always line

01:33:29 ◼   ► up.

01:33:30 ◼   ► I hope it is a new form factor.

01:33:32 ◼   ► It is a reasonable time for it to be one, but there's no, there's no like pressing need.

01:33:37 ◼   ► Like they have to do it or whatever.

01:33:38 ◼   ► And if it doesn't line up, it doesn't line up.

01:33:40 ◼   ► Hey, look, look what they did with the iPhone.

01:33:41 ◼   ► They were ready early.

01:33:42 ◼   ► And so they just skipped nine.

01:33:44 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:33:45 ◼   ► I mean, I guess that's true, but I, I don't know.

01:33:48 ◼   ► I just have a gut feeling that's going to happen.

01:33:50 ◼   ► It'd be cool.

01:33:51 ◼   ► It'll be cool if they use the X too.

01:33:53 ◼   ► I think we're ready for it.

01:33:55 ◼   ► And I'm honestly like, I'm a little scared because you know, the Apple watch is what

01:34:00 ◼   ► I wear most days and I'm a huge, you know, watch snob.

01:34:05 ◼   ► And I I'm currently like, I'm happy with the Apple watch.

01:34:08 ◼   ► I don't super love it.

01:34:09 ◼   ► I don't super hate anything about it.

01:34:11 ◼   ► I'm, I'm, we're in a nice stable place and I, I'm a little worried if they're going to

01:34:15 ◼   ► like take some big moves, I'm a little worried.

01:34:18 ◼   ► They might, you know, mess some stuff up.

01:34:20 ◼   ► Like I gotta say, I still don't love watchOS 10.

01:34:23 ◼   ► But that's a story for another day, I guess.

01:34:26 ◼   ► So you know, we'll see what they do with the hardware.

01:34:29 ◼   ► So I'm a little nervous, but their track record with the Apple watch hardware is really good

01:34:35 ◼   ► with the exception of the first one just being so darn slow and everything.

01:34:39 ◼   ► That wasn't really their fault.

01:34:40 ◼   ► Recent generations of the Apple watch hardware have really just been amazing.

01:34:44 ◼   ► It's been a little boring with the exception of the ultra, which was a huge hit.

01:34:48 ◼   ► But like, you know, the regular series Apple watch, it doesn't change much in recent years,

01:34:53 ◼   ► but every year brings some kind of like little incremental changes that over time add up.

01:34:57 ◼   ► And so the recent Apple watches are great.

01:35:00 ◼   ► But as I said, last time this came up, like I would like to see some refreshing and variety

01:35:06 ◼   ► happen in the Apple watch line of just cause it is still jewelry.

01:35:09 ◼   ► So you know, some, some updates and refreshing over time are, are nice thing to have.

01:35:13 ◼   ► Uh, I'm looking forward to that.

01:35:15 ◼   ► The whole strap attachment rumor things has me a little nervous.

01:35:19 ◼   ► But again, you look at Apple's track record on making straps, they're amazing.

01:35:23 ◼   ► Like Apple has the best watch straps in the watch industry by a huge margin, generally

01:35:30 ◼   ► speaking.

01:35:31 ◼   ► Like, yeah, one or two nice ones from other vendors exist, but like Apple watch straps

01:35:35 ◼   ► on the whole.

01:35:37 ◼   ► And I'm really mostly or only talking about the ones by Apple, not by third parties, which

01:35:42 ◼   ► are largely garbage.

01:35:44 ◼   ► But Apple's own Apple watch straps not only are amazing today, but have been amazing for

01:35:52 ◼   ► the entire run of the Apple watch.

01:35:54 ◼   ► Like even the very first ones they launched with the very first Apple watch, those straps

01:35:59 ◼   ► were all amazing.

01:36:00 ◼   ► Like they were super good straps.

01:36:02 ◼   ► So they're, they're really good at this.

01:36:04 ◼   ► And I, if they're going to redo the strap mechanism, I trust that they're probably going

01:36:11 ◼   ► to come out with some really nice straps to go with it too.

01:36:14 ◼   ► Uh, so I'm looking forward to this rumor of this, you know, big Apple watch revamp.

01:36:19 ◼   ► I think it's time and I trust that they will probably do a really good job with it.

01:36:24 ◼   ► Yeah.

01:36:25 ◼   ► I feel like this, this strap rumor is the one that I'm most willing to believe that

01:36:28 ◼   ► I couldn't get that one done.

01:36:29 ◼   ► Like I'm, you know, if I had to rank them like a new shape redesign for 10 is higher

01:36:34 ◼   ► rank for me than new shape and also new strap because our previous session, maybe they couldn't

01:36:39 ◼   ► figure out something better.

01:36:40 ◼   ► And so it goes in the back burner for a few more years or whatever.

01:36:43 ◼   ► But uh, having them both would be great.

01:36:44 ◼   ► That would really be an Apple watch 10 new design, new strap, new everything.

01:36:48 ◼   ► It would be very much like the iPhone 10.

01:36:50 ◼   ► Well, but the thing is like, you know, according to the rumor that like one of the reasons

01:36:54 ◼   ► they were looking at a new strap attachment mechanism is because the current one takes

01:36:57 ◼   ► up a lot of space in the case, which is true.

01:37:00 ◼   ► It might be that in order to get a new case shape design, they had to change the strap

01:37:05 ◼   ► mechanism to get that extra space out.

01:37:07 ◼   ► If they, if they tied them together, then yeah, then either both of them pushed off

01:37:10 ◼   ► from either one.

01:37:11 ◼   ► But it's so hard to tell from these rumors because you know, see previous Apple watch

01:37:15 ◼   ► rumors, they have not been entirely reliable about form factor changes.

01:37:18 ◼   ► No, they've been comically unreliable.

01:37:20 ◼   ► But you know, if you think about what Apple could do with more interior space of an Apple

01:37:25 ◼   ► watch, the answer is very obvious.

01:37:27 ◼   ► Add more battery and therefore give the watch more capabilities and make it, you know, raise

01:37:31 ◼   ► the specs basically and or make it thinner.

01:37:34 ◼   ► Both of which would be wonderfully welcome for the Apple watch.

01:37:37 ◼   ► I would actually say that they've come far enough in the, in the thinness department

01:37:42 ◼   ► in recent minor revisions.

01:37:43 ◼   ► I actually don't think it needs to be that much thinner.

01:37:46 ◼   ► I'm happy with it where it is a little bit thinner would be like a little more elegant,

01:37:51 ◼   ► but it doesn't, it doesn't, it's not screaming for being thinner, but it is screaming for

01:37:54 ◼   ► resources.

01:37:55 ◼   ► I think you still have to fight the thinness one because I think we would all agree an

01:37:59 ◼   ► Apple watch that's one quarter of the thickness could be amazing.

01:38:02 ◼   ► That opens up a whole new design possibilities, like a really thin one, but we know we just

01:38:06 ◼   ► can't do that with current technology.

01:38:08 ◼   ► I feel like we need to keep much more so than the phone because it's not something that

01:38:12 ◼   ► you hold in your hand.

01:38:13 ◼   ► Thin watches exist and are at a good look and are cool and Apple should pursue that.

01:38:19 ◼   ► It is now, it is still thicker than if you said Apple, we have a magic battery that can

01:38:24 ◼   ► be any size and give you the same amount of energy.

01:38:26 ◼   ► They wouldn't choose to make it this big.

01:38:27 ◼   ► It is thicker than Apple would choose to design.

01:38:29 ◼   ► It's thicker than anyone would choose to design.

01:38:31 ◼   ► We just know it has to be that big.

01:38:32 ◼   ► So I get what you're saying, that it's not so big that it's a impediment, but watches

01:38:36 ◼   ► unlike phones as we know them today can tolerate being a lot thinner than these things are.

01:38:42 ◼   ► Yes, but it doesn't look like a thick watch.

01:38:46 ◼   ► It looks like a kind of regular range of a watch thickness.

01:38:50 ◼   ► It doesn't need it.

01:38:51 ◼   ► You're right that it would be nice if it's thinner, but like if they're going to gain

01:38:55 ◼   ► a decent chunk of internal volume to use for something like to spend somehow.

01:38:58 ◼   ► Oh yeah.

01:38:59 ◼   ► I'm not saying this year, I'm saying like 20 years from now, Apple shouldn't stop pursuing

01:39:03 ◼   ► thinness because we're never going to get to the 20 years from now really thin watch

01:39:06 ◼   ► if they don't continue to pursue it.

01:39:08 ◼   ► And the flip side of that is there is obviously the style and the watch industry of like,

01:39:12 ◼   ► it is ridiculously thick because that is the style.

01:39:14 ◼   ► Well that's a style.

01:39:16 ◼   ► It's not universal.

01:39:17 ◼   ► Well I mean the Ultra, the Ultra fulfills that, but there are very thin watches and

01:39:21 ◼   ► there are also very thick ones and the thick ones are not thick because they need to be

01:39:24 ◼   ► that thick.

01:39:25 ◼   ► It is a style and I feel like the Ultra, that's where the Ultra lives right now and I'm happy

01:39:28 ◼   ► with that one, but for the regular watch, I would love to see it be thinner in a decade

01:39:31 ◼   ► rather than the same size.

01:39:33 ◼   ► Ultimately what I want to see for the watch is anything that can raise its limits.

01:39:39 ◼   ► It is such a, the entire watch software platform is so extremely limited by its need to conserve

01:39:48 ◼   ► power very aggressively in order to have useful battery life.

01:39:53 ◼   ► And if they can give it 20% more battery space, whatever it would be, if that would then allow

01:39:59 ◼   ► them to let the watch loose a little bit more with its own resource usage, that opens up

01:40:05 ◼   ► much more software potential, that opens up potentially more responsiveness for the user,

01:40:11 ◼   ► more on-device features.

01:40:14 ◼   ► It makes the entire watch experience potentially much better if they can lift some of those

01:40:19 ◼   ► limits.

01:40:20 ◼   ► So that could pay off in a much bigger way than making it a millimeter thinner in my

01:40:24 ◼   ► opinion.

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01:42:17 ◼   ► [Music]

01:42:22 ◼   ► AirPods 4.

01:42:23 ◼   ► I don't have too much to say about this.

01:42:25 ◼   ► We have in the show notes that they're supposed to be getting a new design, an updated case,

01:42:31 ◼   ► and potentially even active noise cancellation, which I think would be great for non-AirPods

01:42:35 ◼   ► Pro things.

01:42:36 ◼   ► Apparently, the case will have speakers for Find My Alerts.

01:42:39 ◼   ► It'll have USB-C, obviously.

01:42:41 ◼   ► And then apparently a higher-end version of the AirPods 4, not the Pro, but the AirPods

01:42:46 ◼   ► 4 will have ANC, like I said.

01:42:48 ◼   ► AirPods 4 Plus.

01:42:49 ◼   ► Yeah, right.

01:42:50 ◼   ► Or 4 Max.

01:42:53 ◼   ► I think AirPods 4, that sounds good.

01:42:56 ◼   ► I don't have any particularly strong thoughts about this.

01:42:58 ◼   ► I think I'll probably stick with the AirPods Pro forever more, because they are so freaking

01:43:03 ◼   ► good.

01:43:05 ◼   ► But I think more of that tech flowing downhill to regular stuff, I'm here for it.

01:43:11 ◼   ► Sounds good to me.

01:43:12 ◼   ► 2024 is the year of stuff for me.

01:43:14 ◼   ► OLED iPads that no one's really interested in, AirPods 4 that no one's really interested

01:43:17 ◼   ► in, but I am, and it's also my iPhone year.

01:43:20 ◼   ► I'm a little bit confused by the AirPods 4 rumor with there being two versions, one of

01:43:23 ◼   ► which has noise canceling or whatever.

01:43:25 ◼   ► Only confused because they haven't come right out and said, "Oh, by the way, the one that

01:43:28 ◼   ► has noise canceling will be shoved into your ear canal," which is not what I want.

01:43:33 ◼   ► The reason I use AirPods 3 is I don't want things shoved into my ear canal.

01:43:36 ◼   ► If they have two versions of the AirPods 4, surely one of them will not be shoved into

01:43:41 ◼   ► my ear canal.

01:43:42 ◼   ► I don't know what the word is for this that I keep saying.

01:43:43 ◼   ► But anyway, you know what I mean.

01:43:44 ◼   ► The little soft squishy tips that go into the hole in your ear.

01:43:47 ◼   ► I don't want that.

01:43:49 ◼   ► So if there are two of them, one of them has got to be not like that.

01:43:52 ◼   ► But are they also trying to say that the other AirPods 4 will also not go in your ear but

01:43:57 ◼   ► have noise canceling?

01:43:58 ◼   ► You could do noise canceling, like do the same thing, but not be shoved into your ear

01:44:03 ◼   ► canal, but it's not going to work as well at all, right?

01:44:06 ◼   ► For many, many reasons.

01:44:08 ◼   ► But the rumors are still vague.

01:44:10 ◼   ► So if there are new AirPods, I will probably get them unless both of them go into your

01:44:17 ◼   ► ear canals, in which case I'll just ride these out.

01:44:19 ◼   ► And I'm willing to believe that I can be converted.

01:44:21 ◼   ► If Apple just stops selling the ones that don't go into your canals, I'll just have

01:44:24 ◼   ► to get used to it.

01:44:25 ◼   ► I'll probably survive.

01:44:27 ◼   ► But it's not what I prefer.

01:44:29 ◼   ► My wife has AirPods Pro now.

01:44:30 ◼   ► She's had two pairs of them.

01:44:32 ◼   ► And I've tried them, and I know what they're like.

01:44:34 ◼   ► And it's not like I can't do it.

01:44:36 ◼   ► I just don't prefer it.

01:44:37 ◼   ► I could get used to it if I had to.

01:44:39 ◼   ► And I'm sure if I did get used to it, I'd be like, "Wow, noise canceling is great.

01:44:42 ◼   ► Isn't this wonderful?"

01:44:43 ◼   ► Yeah, all the things everyone else already knows.

01:44:44 ◼   ► I just still prefer the other ones.

01:44:46 ◼   ► So I'm hoping the AirPods 4 with two different models, one or both of them still don't go

01:44:50 ◼   ► into your ear canal.

01:44:51 ◼   ► And that'll be the one for me as I watch my OLED iPad.

01:44:54 ◼   ► It's a big year for Jon.

01:44:57 ◼   ► Yeah, all the boring products.

01:45:00 ◼   ► AirPods Max 2 potentially?

01:45:02 ◼   ► Question mark time.

01:45:06 ◼   ► I've never tried the AirPods Max, so I don't have any thoughts on this other than--

01:45:10 ◼   ► I mean, do they make a USB-C model?

01:45:13 ◼   ► Do they actually revise it so they're changed in some way?

01:45:16 ◼   ► Do they fix the condensation issue for people with sweaty ears?

01:45:19 ◼   ► Do they make them more comfortable?

01:45:21 ◼   ► I find them-- granted, I've only worn them in Apple stores or whatever, but I do not