The Accidental Tech Podcast

5: Negativity, Skepticism, and Doubt


00:00:00   people treating me think that was drunk last show you didn't get essentially [TS]

00:00:05   terrible best not to use only when your drunk like when your second people [TS]

00:00:12   people crazy so what we talked about tonight I think I know I mean I think we [TS]

00:00:18   have to talk about the Google Reader thing I think we do so let me start by [TS]

00:00:22   asking to either of you guys believe in RSS I presume the answer is a resounding [TS]

00:00:26   yes it exists whether you believe it or not it's all good just like Love III use [TS]

00:00:37   ours is constantly lot of people have always said that the RSS is dead and I i [TS]

00:00:41   dont use RSS I could replace it with Twitter whatever and I think that's true [TS]

00:00:45   for a lot of people certainly but RSS as a technology is fine it behind the [TS]

00:00:51   scenes of quite a lot of things and a lot of people do use it the way you [TS]

00:00:57   think of when you say do you use are as a lot of people still do that and I [TS]

00:01:01   don't really think that's ever going away because it serves water really good [TS]

00:01:06   functions of the problem with ours as well one of the problems are says is [TS]

00:01:10   that it gives you a really really easy way to shoot yourself in the foot which [TS]

00:01:14   is you subscribe to all the sites that everyone's heard of all the big like 30 [TS]

00:01:19   posts a day blogs and news sites and everything so it's very very easy to [TS]

00:01:23   reach a point where you're getting like 500 new RSS items per day and you just [TS]

00:01:30   don't you can get all that and so it piles up and it becomes this guilt in [TS]

00:01:34   box that you never want to clear and so I usually that results in New abandoning [TS]

00:01:40   our assessment can I can never go back to RSS too many unread items you know [TS]

00:01:44   that happens a lot especially with geeks and so I can totally see why people move [TS]

00:01:50   off of our assessment at that point but it doesn't mean that you have to admit [TS]

00:01:55   the only option and doesn't mean RSS is dead or dying it just means you're using [TS]

00:01:59   it badly and sure you know it it's partially the technology's fault for [TS]

00:02:04   being so easy to misuse or to use an unsustainable way for you for yourself [TS]

00:02:10   but [TS]

00:02:11   that's not to say the entire technology is dead and you can eat people at the [TS]

00:02:14   same problem with Twitter where they follow too many people and they can't [TS]

00:02:17   keep up with their feed and so they they find ways around it they skip everything [TS]

00:02:21   is one of the top of the only look at new stuff or whatever you know that you [TS]

00:02:25   find ways around it [TS]

00:02:26   they trim their follower counts right you know we think alike you know lots of [TS]

00:02:30   people saying well nobody uses are so small but obviously in our circles in [TS]

00:02:33   the sort of three travel and on the net it I think the usage is still pretty [TS]

00:02:38   widespread I was looking at you know group just we did a little before he [TS]

00:02:41   treated his stats on a website but he tweeted the actual like logline 200,000 [TS]

00:02:47   and 400,000 subscribers all nobody uses are as well apparently 400,000 people at [TS]

00:02:52   least are using it because that's just from one site stats right so that's it [TS]

00:02:57   yeah we're a tiny group of people right but you know in the circle of travel and [TS]

00:03:03   computer nerds is big enough to sustain a technology because this point [TS]

00:03:10   technologies we use that nobody else interested in a mean like how many [TS]

00:03:13   people use Xcode and it still viable products because it has a purpose right [TS]

00:03:16   so that the net remains to be seen [TS]

00:03:20   you know like I mean we sustained winner for a long time just ourselves we're not [TS]

00:03:24   discovered IRC it's not I don't think the like the popularity of the the [TS]

00:03:29   technology its way past the threshold like it's viable right so the only [TS]

00:03:33   question is you know the technology is viable there's more than enough people [TS]

00:03:37   want to use it more than enough people to sustain a market for the usage of [TS]

00:03:41   that is just a question of where do we go from here now that you know goal came [TS]

00:03:46   along and pushed everybody out and then took its bomb I know right and and you [TS]

00:03:51   know a lot of people are saying to google said that using has been [TS]

00:03:54   declining so it's not worth keeping up well there's a whole lot of businesses [TS]

00:03:58   that are not worth the Google paying attention to at their size but that a [TS]

00:04:03   lot of smaller companies can make very good businesses addressing those needs [TS]

00:04:07   you know there's a lot of things Google doesn't do i mean certainly you can look [TS]

00:04:10   at some of their projects and they do everything is a major flop [TS]

00:04:15   experimentation but you know if RSS is now too small for Google to care about [TS]

00:04:21   that doesn't mean that is too small for anyone to care [TS]

00:04:24   about it's not so much that I don't think that's too small too cool to care [TS]

00:04:28   about like now as if like this I don't know how much i buy the thing i wud [TS]

00:04:31   declining readership it's it's almost as if like they didn't never had a reason [TS]

00:04:35   to get into it all anyway really like I think by the time they got into it was [TS]

00:04:40   clear that it wasn't going to be the next winter [TS]

00:04:43   you know like ours as it was what it was and it was never gonna like suddenly [TS]

00:04:49   bust out in because it's kind of like it's kinda like using the day's news and [TS]

00:04:52   stuff it ending using that was going to sweep the nation and run the world and [TS]

00:04:55   just become like it was already used that was already you know sort of the [TS]

00:04:59   thing that it was but you know I guess we might as well have that and them [TS]

00:05:04   having a reasonable free products such a long period of time [TS]

00:05:07   kind of doing intentionally to crash everybody else but the the net effect [TS]

00:05:13   was good really good at keeping their servers up cool is really good at making [TS]

00:05:16   their service fast and doing the things they were doing is actually kind of [TS]

00:05:21   difficult and they're giving away for free so the company like NewsGator is [TS]

00:05:25   something we're trying to make a business out of it couldn't do it was [TS]

00:05:27   like yeah we're better than Google Reader but just barely and their free [TS]

00:05:30   and so you know they just SAT there until everyone else has gone out of [TS]

00:05:34   business in the city why are we even doing Google Reader I don't know what [TS]

00:05:38   stop doing that I mean I think they kept going longer than they had to come like [TS]

00:05:42   a relationship where you want to break up with somebody like just keep you know [TS]

00:05:47   like four years I think anyone who is surprised by this I would be shocked [TS]

00:05:52   because like I've been looking forward to for years and things like why are [TS]

00:05:56   they still going every day we all knew the hammer was gonna fall years and [TS]

00:06:00   years like even a blog post about a nightmare reading his blog postings [TS]

00:06:04   angle yet Google Reader is not long for this world and yet here we are two years [TS]

00:06:07   later and I'm just finally getting around axing it so I don't know anyone [TS]

00:06:12   who's mad Google tracks and understand where that comes from other than just [TS]

00:06:15   frustration I totally I totally see why they're getting rid of it and your post [TS]

00:06:21   the bond market you put on your website just like this finally freezes all up to [TS]

00:06:25   maybe do something interesting in the area that's also true but I think people [TS]

00:06:28   are still bummed I was bomb because we know like alright [TS]

00:06:31   that the other shoe finally dropped now we have to have this period of time [TS]

00:06:34   where there's nothing healthy weight for something you know what I mean is [TS]

00:06:38   already there is only a matter of a familiar for the do it together they [TS]

00:06:42   make some clients marxist clients be posted on their blog like a very fast [TS]

00:06:48   after very quickly after Google+ their thing that they've they are kinda [TS]

00:06:53   preparing for this for a while and they built an API compatible clone of Google [TS]

00:06:58   Reader for themselves that their clients will automatically start syncing with [TS]

00:07:03   Google Reader shuts down and and is already like a number i mean just [TS]

00:07:07   tonight on Twitter I thought about building one there's already tons of [TS]

00:07:10   people saying OK announcer in this new project is gonna marry the Google API [TS]

00:07:15   and you can self-hosted open source or whatever or somebody else can build a [TS]

00:07:20   big platform on it I do think though it was really funny that feeling in their [TS]

00:07:26   post they said okay so we thought it was gonna shut us down for a while so we [TS]

00:07:30   built this thing we built on Google AppEngine but that's the thing about it [TS]

00:07:38   like what do you know it's not that we're Google Reader did it so [TS]

00:07:41   groundbreaking it's the fact that it was run by Google which meant that it was up [TS]

00:07:45   and available in there and I'm sure people are going to say oh is down until [TS]

00:07:49   recently the reason having someone else do this annoying stuff like that [TS]

00:07:55   operation stuff running a server keeping up keeping efficient having it work at [TS]

00:07:59   scale from many brazilians [TS]

00:08:01   even RSS like oh the declining usership the number of people are getting Google [TS]

00:08:04   Reader is huge compared to like you know you're some little companies ok well [TS]

00:08:08   we're gonna have seven million people over tomorrow and pull stuff from it is [TS]

00:08:11   that you're ok with that can you scale sure it's not easy and one of the [TS]

00:08:17   biggest challenges of designing a service like that is that Google called [TS]

00:08:21   the feeds and then the client just logged into Google and said hey what's [TS]

00:08:25   new [TS]

00:08:26   so Google had to maintain this crawling infrastructure the entire internet right [TS]

00:08:33   now so we're kind of unique position right is that better than you right but [TS]

00:08:36   for anyone else to do it you have to build a crawling at the structure that [TS]

00:08:40   has to crawl like millions and millions of feeds quickly and repeatedly [TS]

00:08:44   new updates do you think that's an important part of the service them all [TS]

00:08:48   yet it is absolutely great yeah because that's a that's a major thing that your [TS]

00:08:53   app doesn't have to do if you're running RSS client that's a big deal and it also [TS]

00:08:58   they normalize all the feeds into one particular Adam format so you only one [TS]

00:09:04   partner I mean it's there's there's lots of reasons for clients to want to do it [TS]

00:09:10   that way service against that so yeah I think any service Google Reader is going [TS]

00:09:18   to have to provide at least the automatic content crawling and [TS]

00:09:23   normalization of the field format now that they can leave out all the social [TS]

00:09:28   stuff they can leave out flagging tagging starring all they can leave all [TS]

00:09:32   that stuff out as far as I'm concerned but the basics of sinking a list of [TS]

00:09:38   features ascribe to thinking what you have read and unread and providing that [TS]

00:09:42   whole crawling back end so that the client doesn't have to do it I think any [TS]

00:09:45   any replacement has to do those things and why the crying part that's just [TS]

00:09:50   basically so the client doesn't have to open up ten million TCP connections to [TS]

00:09:54   ten nine different servers and pull stuff from it exactly what we see this [TS]

00:09:57   and we see this week podcast clients on on iOS there there is I think only one I [TS]

00:10:03   think only pocket cast by shifty jelly they do server-side crawling of all the [TS]

00:10:09   feeds similar to a career doesn't RSS I don't think any other major client does [TS]

00:10:14   that please e-mail John if I'm wrong I will let you know that actually but like [TS]

00:10:18   I use downcast my feet from my podcast client and every time you launch the app [TS]

00:10:22   has to update it has to crawl whatever you know all 25 or whatever number feed [TS]

00:10:27   subscribe to individually and that sucks and it's a big waste of bandwidth for [TS]

00:10:32   things that don't implement not modified stuff like that it's very inefficient on [TS]

00:10:37   like a thin client like phone we don't really want to have some massive on a [TS]

00:10:41   desktop we're just playing in the background who cares [TS]

00:10:44   rightists if you have some app in the back on its fine but an iOS that matters [TS]

00:10:48   a lot when you launch the app you don't have to sit there for a minute and a [TS]

00:10:52   half all qualities feeds you know Google Reader clients are awesome because [TS]

00:10:56   they only have to sink to one thing they only have to get Google and Google back [TS]

00:11:01   saying here's a list of new things instead of with RSS you might have way [TS]

00:11:05   more subscriptions on the podcast client so what are you if you subscribe to like [TS]

00:11:09   250 feeds and most of them are updated most of the time but there's a few that [TS]

00:11:13   are that's way more efficient to do the Google Reader way where the service I [TS]

00:11:18   cross everything than that required the clients across hundred fifty feeds every [TS]

00:11:22   15 minutes that you launch them a transitional things like fast forward 20 [TS]

00:11:27   years is still a factor that we still have like an awesome teen core [TS]

00:11:33   processors and R&R wristwatch communicative things and bandwidth is [TS]

00:11:38   really high and we just as actually faster to call crawl hundred fifty [TS]

00:11:44   different URLs in parallel than to ask one server 40 no cause think about think [TS]

00:11:48   about what you have to do you have to if you so much more did it the radios on [TS]

00:11:51   longer I mean that's it that's never gonna be a more efficient it's always [TS]

00:11:55   gonna be better to go through the intermediate and I will be more [TS]

00:11:57   efficient but maybe the desktop on the desktop is not as much of a factor [TS]

00:12:01   because we're not worried about opening up opening up a TCP connection takes a [TS]

00:12:07   long time so you don't have to open up one of them it's better than having to [TS]

00:12:09   open up a hundred and fifty but the bandwidth concerns like assuming mobile [TS]

00:12:13   bandwidth you know goes away and the CPU concerns of having all these threads [TS]

00:12:17   going at once which is untenable on iOS device today maybe that isn't in the [TS]

00:12:21   future I'm just wondering if it's like one of those things where I remember [TS]

00:12:24   back when to do any sort of are assessing the server like we don't do [TS]

00:12:28   that for the web we don't do all the mobile web surfing through a proxy [TS]

00:12:31   unless you I guess my self and non-self does that everybody used to be in the [TS]

00:12:35   bad old days the mobile web surfing had to go through a proxy cuz it had to like [TS]

00:12:38   tear down the pages for you and all sorts of all things in the Amazon still [TS]

00:12:41   doing it but we accept now the tradeoff is like a rather have Mobile Safari just [TS]

00:12:46   go right to the website don't compress my images don't modify the mark up like [TS]

00:12:51   a real web browser it connects the real way and we're just gonna bite the bullet [TS]

00:12:55   and go with that it seems to me that that's gotta be eventually the future so [TS]

00:12:59   we are still around [TS]

00:13:01   that's got to be the future of this type of service long-term not not last long [TS]

00:13:04   but also the RSS like the access path [TS]

00:13:07   is different with RSS almost all of those requests that the polling client [TS]

00:13:12   makes are gonna be returned back with nothing to you know i three of three or [TS]

00:13:16   four whenever you know nothing new so for the client after check that over and [TS]

00:13:22   over again is extremely wasteful so and one way you can solve this is with push [TS]

00:13:28   up somehow and RSS cloud to address this push issue but pushes really complicated [TS]

00:13:34   to implement all various ends of it the polling was just way similar sites we [TS]

00:13:38   still have it but you know with RSS I think it makes a lot of sense because [TS]

00:13:43   almost all of the polls that happened will result in nothing new this fifty [TS]

00:13:48   minute interval then it makes sense to have all that inefficient polling [TS]

00:13:52   happening somewhere else that can tolerate inefficiency is like a [TS]

00:13:56   datacenter that's powered by AC power and on a battery that has a big fat [TS]

00:14:00   connection to the Internet and is always running this app as opposed to it after [TS]

00:14:04   launch and you have to look I S apt who knows how this will change in the future [TS]

00:14:08   but at the moment [TS]

00:14:09   iOS apps like RSS readers can't automatically check things in the [TS]

00:14:13   background about 15 minutes they have to be running and so when you launch it has [TS]

00:14:17   to lose all that state from something right then and there are so many reasons [TS]

00:14:22   to have that be remote based and have you know have a Google Reader like setup [TS]

00:14:26   where the service doing all the crawling in the client just send you one very [TS]

00:14:29   lightweight request to the server which is already done most of the work and I [TS]

00:14:33   think the thing that that maybe we're not considering is the difference it is [TS]

00:14:38   at creation time and money guys kind of lightly touching the second ago but if I [TS]

00:14:42   was about to write a pirate in RSS client tomorrow I wouldn't want to have [TS]

00:14:49   to fiddle around with with trying to figure out all the different and varied [TS]

00:14:54   responses I'm gonna get from all these different and varied web servers I want [TS]

00:14:57   something that's going to be a facade in front of that that's going to make them [TS]

00:15:00   nice and clean and so I can get the part of the app that i dont wanna do which is [TS]

00:15:05   the behind the scenes boring getting the the RSS updates and I can get that out [TS]

00:15:11   of the way as quickly as possible so I can do the cool stuff on the UI side now [TS]

00:15:15   as it turns out I actually am a terrible UI developer but in principle if your [TS]

00:15:19   gonna right now [TS]

00:15:20   do it because you have something new and exciting to do and you're not going to [TS]

00:15:24   want to bother with doing on the back end stuff you can do all the UI stuff in [TS]

00:15:28   in like you were saying Marco having one place to get all that normalized and in [TS]

00:15:33   a clean clean stayed is much better nazis you so much time went by before [TS]

00:15:39   you compile when you're just writing the code it saves so much time and that I [TS]

00:15:43   don't think many people have very much interest in doing that boring stuff they [TS]

00:15:46   just want to do the fun you I study also there there's a practical aspect of lake [TS]

00:15:50   with with iOS apps in the App Store if there are some new weirdo feed that you [TS]

00:15:55   find that some weird format if it's a service I configuration of the parser [TS]

00:15:59   you can update immediately and all your clients have immediately you don't have [TS]

00:16:03   to recode the apple butter a preview and channeling they wanted you might be like [TS]

00:16:11   the idea that I and the idea of all all rss feeds funneling into a service which [TS]

00:16:19   includes a nap I see all the reasons for it but it just sits a seems like Amazon [TS]

00:16:25   Silk to me it seems like wow that was like it that's that it just smells like [TS]

00:16:30   that to me and it seems like it's just a bump in the road along our way to fully [TS]

00:16:36   decentralized thinking maybe maybe we need a new protocol that may be pulling [TS]

00:16:39   down entire RSS feed or expecting a three or four based on some time stamp [TS]

00:16:42   hopefully getting your time zone right and everything is not like me maybe [TS]

00:16:46   there's a better product may be tapped net or something that looks similar to [TS]

00:16:49   that where if you make it more efficient protocol and really decentralized it in [TS]

00:16:54   some way maybe it makes up for it but I mean you know the other aspect of things [TS]

00:16:58   not just that the content crying but the main reason the main way that I use [TS]

00:17:04   Google Reader I think at least a quarter of the people who are regular readers [TS]

00:17:08   use in this way as as a syncing service as in I read news as you know that's an [TS]

00:17:14   activity I do in some place and when I go someplace else a different computer [TS]

00:17:18   different device or whatever I wanted to know that I read that thing [TS]

00:17:22   other thing and that is really an entirely separate thing from irate my [TS]

00:17:27   feeds normalize them tell me this updates and stuff like that because now [TS]

00:17:30   you're into like a state synchronization that has nothing to do with the fees as [TS]

00:17:35   everything to do with you what did you read so far you know what did you [TS]

00:17:38   subscribe to what they do on the subscribe to and that state [TS]

00:17:41   synchronization is probably harder problem you know algorithmic [TS]

00:17:47   algorithmically least to find figure out what the hell the right thing is to do [TS]

00:17:51   that then the near operational problem of crying the entire web of RSS feeds [TS]

00:17:57   and normalizing them of writing a response like that and so those those [TS]

00:18:00   two things that's quite a bit for any one party or multiple parties to bite [TS]

00:18:06   off because that's what people are looking for you you'd never see the Guru [TS]

00:18:10   web UI some people live in it but I never even look at that news wire and I [TS]

00:18:13   used on various devices on various machines and I wanted to be in sync so I [TS]

00:18:18   want something to do that as well as like the normalization I don't see that [TS]

00:18:22   that's going on it's more of a development concern so something doesn't [TS]

00:18:26   normalizing doesn't aggravate and for example doesn't cash which you know the [TS]

00:18:30   thing that drives everyone who authors and artists be crazy about careers you [TS]

00:18:33   get a bomb item in their never forget another opportunity for someone coming [TS]

00:18:38   into this field to do it better hey give us a way to delete that crap out or [TS]

00:18:41   maybe have smart caching that forgets it disappears but anyway those the sinking [TS]

00:18:46   aspect of it it is what I'm really looking for in some third party vendor [TS]

00:18:50   to hop up and say hey we're going to provide a service for all your news [TS]

00:18:54   reading applications to keep them on sink and will charge some small amount [TS]

00:18:57   of money in your subscribe to it or something like that yeah it snowed fever [TS]

00:19:03   is that right fever response to that is what we like self-hosted and what does [TS]

00:19:08   it mean but the problem is like when you ask people to sell host I can I know and [TS]

00:19:14   technical and knowledge but I don't know I agree some posting as that will always [TS]

00:19:21   accept your audience and requiring that I mean if it's a good way to learn [TS]

00:19:28   something you don't know about all the technologies involved self hosting is a [TS]

00:19:30   good learning experience for with an audience of one so you're not like you [TS]

00:19:33   know destroying some [TS]

00:19:34   business you know learning about suicide development but it's the you know that's [TS]

00:19:39   that's hosting is not going to explode now that Google Reader is gone but we [TS]

00:19:43   all wanted something to do with Google Reader did for us because you know when [TS]

00:19:46   I read something that it's red and everything is fast and all my clients [TS]

00:19:50   work with it and you know and some people use the web interface for them [TS]

00:19:53   they're looking for an equivalent or better web interface I i think i I think [TS]

00:20:01   the web interface hopefully is is on its way out for RSS because I mean certainly [TS]

00:20:06   RSS is being pushed pretty heavily it always was a very eccentric technology [TS]

00:20:10   and and while there are non geeks user I'm sure there are a heck of a lot more [TS]

00:20:15   geeks who do and so if RSS like if if the web reader experience never fully [TS]

00:20:24   gets replaced I think that's fine where I think we're going to see you know I [TS]

00:20:30   think we're gonna see to these come out of us first we gonna see you know [TS]

00:20:35   obviously we're going to see that the the backend sinking platform will be [TS]

00:20:38   replaced by a million different people doing doing basically doing the same [TS]

00:20:41   thing which is just marrying the Google Reader API with some kind of hosted or [TS]

00:20:46   open source thing that anybody can get or use and at school and we need that [TS]

00:20:50   would be kind of a shame because everything i've heard from people who [TS]

00:20:54   develop against the career API I've makes it doesn't help that it was [TS]

00:20:57   undocumented unsupported breath like if you had if you had to pick an API to [TS]

00:21:00   make it easy for app developers to implement same thing maybe the Google [TS]

00:21:03   reedy API is not ideal I understand how to do it [TS]

00:21:06   compatibility with all the people who are talking to Google Reader but if I [TS]

00:21:11   was doing one of the projects I would be like ok do the Google Reader API [TS]

00:21:14   mirroring to get us off the ground but let's plan like a much better ABI the [TS]

00:21:19   makes it even easier for developers to you know and I can that be like version [TS]

00:21:23   too often a different places like sure you know yeah I'm actually I'm sure that [TS]

00:21:28   will happen with almost all of these where they will make they will start out [TS]

00:21:31   with a pair of bootstrap it and then they'll have their own light clean nice [TS]

00:21:35   new API but the Google Reader API is probably gonna be the standard if there [TS]

00:21:41   is one like you know right now it was really easy to make an RSS happen last [TS]

00:21:45   year's because all you had [TS]

00:21:47   to do was give people Google Reader username password fields online login [TS]

00:21:51   that was it now I think we're gonna basically see a third field being added [TS]

00:21:56   to that which is like hostname [TS]

00:21:59   like whatever whatever service you are using the API type in the hostname here [TS]

00:22:03   and then type in your password for any thoughts you boxes I think that's that's [TS]

00:22:09   the easiest way forward for the clients and so if that is the outcome if that's [TS]

00:22:14   what you know assume assume we have like multiple multiple services that spring [TS]

00:22:20   up there gonna be like this that are going to replace Google Reader and get [TS]

00:22:22   some popularity if that's the case none of them will have the leverage to make a [TS]

00:22:27   new API Google Reader likely be stuck with it [TS]

00:22:33   just look at the declines have already written all the code for it you know why [TS]

00:22:39   why would I rewrite my client new fancy but I've already got my client working [TS]

00:22:43   with red is working with it for five years now whatever you know why would I [TS]

00:22:48   change of our new API's cleaner for new development you get those guys on board [TS]

00:22:52   but like thats I think that would be a shame because like I said it's not like [TS]

00:22:55   people saying Google Reader is the most awesome API for sinking and you know [TS]

00:22:59   keeping track of stuff maybe not so awesome as a funny side borrow one of [TS]

00:23:03   the weird little projects I did a tumblr was back back before before Twitter [TS]

00:23:10   bought Tweetie from Arbor 21 its own app and everyone loved it there is one of [TS]

00:23:15   the very advanced settings fields was API hostname and you could type in any [TS]

00:23:21   host name there and it would it would use that as the basis of all the Twitter [TS]

00:23:24   API URLs so I wrote the Twitter API for tumblr enough of it so that you can [TS]

00:23:33   browse tumblr into et just using this field to say like forever and it was it [TS]

00:23:40   was it was interesting was it again like him like you got this whole app kind of [TS]

00:23:44   for free by just making burgers mirroring enough of Twitter's API to [TS]

00:23:48   make this work that's why that's why I'm saying like that RSS like not that it's [TS]

00:23:54   inadequate but that [TS]

00:23:56   it's just a piece of the puzzle be like our RSS RSS and Atom our standards for [TS]

00:24:02   do representation but they're they're not they don't help you with the art so [TS]

00:24:06   what about you might have an API that is efficient and can give you [TS]

00:24:10   synchronization information like that would have to be a layer on top of it [TS]

00:24:12   and then that larry is that ok with that [TS]

00:24:15   defacto that is the Google Reader API because that's the most climax ran [TS]

00:24:19   against it and it's you know is the only player in town and it was free in like [TS]

00:24:22   an hour now that's our middle layer and you know it would be nicer if there was [TS]

00:24:27   a similarly open standard like RSS or Atom to fill that role that wasn't just [TS]

00:24:32   like the the leftover droppings of a company that was once vaguely interested [TS]

00:24:36   in the business lost interest [TS]

00:24:38   yeah and and it's also worth speculating on why did this little bit more I just [TS]

00:24:44   thought of a new theory now I think the real reason they shut it down is because [TS]

00:24:51   I've heard from various people over the last couple of months as we start to see [TS]

00:24:56   problems I've heard that the staff assigned to work on Google Reader was [TS]

00:25:01   basically between 0 and three people do you believe in how you measure so I've [TS]

00:25:08   heard it had basically nobody working on it and so member it had it had a pretty [TS]

00:25:13   bad outings like a week or two ago something like that I'm guessing what [TS]

00:25:19   happened was it was working fine for a long time and then things started to [TS]

00:25:24   break and when things started to break a few weeks ago whenever that was nobody [TS]

00:25:30   had a fix it code for years and so that's probably what made you decide you [TS]

00:25:35   know what this is just easier to kill them to fix because it's not giving us [TS]

00:25:40   enough value might as well just kill it rather than maintaining the real reason [TS]

00:25:45   but it's worth considering one conspiracy I think like crazy reason is [TS]

00:25:50   when you're reading RSS you're not going to people's websites and seeing [TS]

00:25:54   ads as I mean things they don't like about from a business perspective [TS]

00:26:00   business reason that you can think to get rid of this thing is like look if [TS]

00:26:04   only they know these numbers but how many people are using it as an API that [TS]

00:26:09   they never see like how many people using apps like reader and that is why [TS]

00:26:12   we never and never see a single one of our ads because all they like it's just [TS]

00:26:15   an API back at all we're doing is providing computing horsepower and [TS]

00:26:18   uptime for them for 30 benefit and never Sierra the people on the web interface [TS]

00:26:23   they can show them as they can you know harvest their interests and you know [TS]

00:26:27   it's just like Gmail like if everybody use the web interface and if that [TS]

00:26:32   everybody was a much larger number than it currently is it would still be around [TS]

00:26:35   but from a business perspective i think im very large number of people don't use [TS]

00:26:42   the web interface and the total sum of all Google Reader uses so much more than [TS]

00:26:46   like this gmail user base or whatever that it just doesn't make any sense to [TS]

00:26:49   keep it right and to that end if you're going to replace Google Reader why would [TS]

00:26:55   you get into that business of the whole point of the businesses was t it is to [TS]

00:26:59   use third-party clients and I guess this comes back tapped out an ad in the ideas [TS]

00:27:03   well you have super nerds that are affluent enough that they'll be able to [TS]

00:27:06   spare few bucks a month to pay for it or node 50 bucks a year whatever the number [TS]

00:27:10   maybe but I wouldn't want to get into that business that seems to get back to [TS]

00:27:16   grouper with this 400,000 RSS subscribers that's how he makes money [TS]

00:27:19   from a site you nobody has one of the ways he he sells RSS sponsorships and [TS]

00:27:24   you get to your sponsoring the RSS feed which thing that the customers mornin [TS]

00:27:29   I'm pretty sure the answer to both of those are in the RSS feed as well right [TS]

00:27:32   so if you if you control the RSS feeds you can certain tannen to RSS feeds all [TS]

00:27:37   the people there are maybe that maybe that model does not work and people hate [TS]

00:27:41   it but you know the apt 9 a.m. I'll certainly more direct passed a little [TS]

00:27:44   bit and you get to use their synchronization service and now wherever [TS]

00:27:47   you read you know like that could be that service I don't think it's quite [TS]

00:27:52   designer for this thing exactly about you know that's the question of like [TS]

00:27:57   okay so Google was subsidizing a result profitable business like an order search [TS]

00:28:00   revenue like that they were doing is more or less out of the goodness of [TS]

00:28:03   their own heart [TS]

00:28:05   higher-level not quite i mean they they want to have access to all the world's [TS]

00:28:09   information and and this and a lot of information flows through RSS 2.0 feed [TS]

00:28:14   burner 47 fever is more of an ad by but you know I I think it made sense why [TS]

00:28:19   they started this in the first place [TS]

00:28:21   didn't even when they bought feel very though it's like i don't think anyone to [TS]

00:28:25   Google had any any notion that RSS was going to grow tremendously from the [TS]

00:28:32   point where they bought it and it hasn't and the point where they bought it [TS]

00:28:36   already wasn't like everything was it was big among nerds but it was never [TS]

00:28:40   like this the growth curve was never never never any illusions it was gonna [TS]

00:28:43   take off like Facebook or Twitter was no hockey stick curb at the time that they [TS]

00:28:47   bought into it maybe they wanted to have it just because like there's no sense in [TS]

00:28:51   other people in other people having this thing and people spending time elsewhere [TS]

00:28:55   and maybe like the long-term evil plan is alright we gotta get this because it [TS]

00:28:59   is a thing is not a big thing is not gonna grow but we need to get it so we [TS]

00:29:03   can just kind of quietly put it to sleep which is you know the rap on Google when [TS]

00:29:08   they buy companies you know John Cooper you know I don't name names of the [TS]

00:29:12   companies that Google is bought that it kind of like faded away you never really [TS]

00:29:17   hear about them again or the you know or are they just don't improve rapidly or [TS]

00:29:22   they just you know it's like if it's on Google's umbrella they have the option [TS]

00:29:26   to to let it go live up on a farm upstate whenever they feel like it right [TS]

00:29:30   i think i mean first of all there's a big problem here but it's kind of a mean [TS]

00:29:37   this this has a lot of parallels to win more controversial things but you know [TS]

00:29:41   what they did really and I don't think they I don't think they plan to this but [TS]

00:29:46   what happened was a Google Reader came out and destroyed a very big market of [TS]

00:29:52   desktop RSS readers and web Google just came in and destroyed it was free and it [TS]

00:29:57   synced and none of the things did at the time and they destroyed and they held on [TS]

00:30:02   to that market for eight years and now they're killing it now but now you know [TS]

00:30:09   I think one has to wonder how did they destroy the market for the desktop app [TS]

00:30:14   apps like how do they make it so it's no longer viable to sell the absolute they [TS]

00:30:17   definitely destroy the services like NewsGator newsletter is trying to tell [TS]

00:30:21   you [TS]

00:30:22   synchronization services but a desktop out i mean what they did to the desktop [TS]

00:30:25   apps on iOS apps even more insidious didn't destroy them they just made it so [TS]

00:30:29   that you know they were the only game in town for a thing that those people [TS]

00:30:32   needed but didn't wanna write well as writing you know and so now all the [TS]

00:30:36   clients not reader uses Google Reader newswire uses Google Reader and all this [TS]

00:30:40   you know all these things use Google Reader is this the only game in town and [TS]

00:30:43   now they're hooked onto the strain the Google is not always kind of mad at [TS]

00:30:47   anybody so it wasn't the sync engine that killed the stock lines it was the [TS]

00:30:51   web interface it was it was making it making RSS reading free so you think [TS]

00:30:56   that took people away people stop buying a newswire as they could just go to the [TS]

00:31:00   Google Reader website absolutely definitely I disagree I completed not [TS]

00:31:04   people but I will tell you I can guarantee you there was another gonna [TS]

00:31:10   guess like who would we go to to get that information like we could google [TS]

00:31:13   presumably knows how many people use 32 over the lifetime they could show that [TS]

00:31:17   growth sure I guess brent controls the growth curve like sales newswire it with [TS]

00:31:24   his deal with the NewsGator but I can tell you i mean just haven't lived [TS]

00:31:28   through that anecdotally I saw that happen I saw I saw many artists clients [TS]

00:31:33   just give up and die and the few that were left with a ones integrated Google [TS]

00:31:38   Reader like you had I gave a resurgence yeah it wasn't like Google reader's [TS]

00:31:44   website went away and in fact I believe it worked reasonably well on mobile from [TS]

00:31:48   from as early as anything more than a resurgence in suddenly like things like [TS]

00:31:55   reader what a creature of violence like they wouldn't have it was not newswire [TS]

00:31:59   was sitting there as the once once and possibly not future king of desktop [TS]

00:32:05   reader market and people were not clamoring to rear applications but it is [TS]

00:32:08   the iPhone launch now everyone wants to write a news reader applications across [TS]

00:32:11   all talking to you the reader you some idea of you readers dominance right now [TS]

00:32:17   I I put my feed stats and [TS]

00:32:20   ninety percent of subscribers to my feed are subscribed via Google Reader sank [TS]

00:32:28   like that's how big this is ninety percent of my my subscribers and then [TS]

00:32:31   like there's like I have a hundred web interface right no they don't they don't [TS]

00:32:36   distinguish but you know that give you some idea like if this service shuts [TS]

00:32:40   down not only is it is leaving a gaping hole in the in the RSS Inc business but [TS]

00:32:48   this could have a massive impact on the readership of websites like I can also [TS]

00:32:56   boost their ad impressions eventually have to go to the website maybe but like [TS]

00:33:00   one of the reasons are so great is because it allows you to very easily [TS]

00:33:06   follow sites that don't update frequently enough you a check every day [TS]

00:33:10   so before our staff came out if you had a blog posted once a month [TS]

00:33:16   nobody would read it and post every day so that people would go to your site [TS]

00:33:22   everyday and check for new stuff and a lot of people as someone who has a [TS]

00:33:26   website that posts not once a month of people still generally yes but there's a [TS]

00:33:35   great power of RSS is allowing you enabling you to follow a whole bunch of [TS]

00:33:41   sites that update infrequently and be and doing that in a manageable way so [TS]

00:33:47   because it's so easy to read them then those who had written frequently they [TS]

00:33:53   have better audiences they have more reach their more influential even if [TS]

00:33:56   they don't write every day and you can get some of that value now from Twitter [TS]

00:34:00   Facebook and all these other crappy services please in OKC but there's still [TS]

00:34:06   so much of that happening on RSS as you can tell by you know stats from me and [TS]

00:34:11   group or anybody else a ton of that activity as an RSS so [TS]

00:34:17   I think it could be really disruptive come July when the shutdown and sites [TS]

00:34:24   like mine and groupers and other people who have like heavy RSS readership in [TS]

00:34:30   the geeky spaces sites like this we could see major shifts in in either [TS]

00:34:36   direction huh sure we could see major shifts and how people read our sites and [TS]

00:34:42   you'll be able to tell the month leading up I guess I think my Google reader [TS]

00:34:45   supports a little subscriber numbers in long lines and everything like if those [TS]

00:34:48   people disperse I don't know if all the other things they dispersed to identify [TS]

00:34:52   themselves in such a nice convenient way so it may be difficult to like counting [TS]

00:34:58   RSS subscribers is different than counting all you can eat there is like [TS]

00:35:02   someone decided this was more than enough to put in their feet and when I [TS]

00:35:06   make something new on the site [TS]

00:35:08   their little feet thing becomes bold presuming they even look at their little [TS]

00:35:12   feet thing which is not you know like this four hundred thousand Google Reader [TS]

00:35:17   subscribers you know how many of them actually going to look at that feed in [TS]

00:35:20   maybe people have stopped using google reader on but Google Reader will keep [TS]

00:35:24   hitting their site right and counting them as a you know it's part of their [TS]

00:35:27   subscription I'm not sure I'd like I'm not sure how long they will do that for [TS]

00:35:31   him whether it's mothers do indefinitely so like maybe the numbers are any from [TS]

00:35:35   reading your site anymore or whether they like have some kind of timeout [TS]

00:35:38   period where they stopped counting you after a while of not looking at reader [TS]

00:35:41   I'm not really sure I like Twitter followers I mean how many human beings [TS]

00:35:44   who ever heard used within the last year and how many people are just people who [TS]

00:35:47   followed you and they joined Twitter for three days three years ago and you know [TS]

00:35:51   are not there anymore [TS]

00:35:54   web stats in viewership things are always kind of food do but Google Reader [TS]

00:35:58   at least gave some sort of unification to the budu in like you know you love it [TS]

00:36:02   summarizes it for you it's measured the same way as everybody's using it ninety [TS]

00:36:06   percent of your subscribers anyway so now we that that's going to become much [TS]

00:36:10   fuzzier even even if every single one of those people who was actually rehearse I [TS]

00:36:13   continues to how you to be able to detect them and track them and confirmed [TS]

00:36:18   yourself that's the case is probably going to be difficult so you're [TS]

00:36:22   begrudging [TS]

00:36:24   the disappearance of Google the all seen eye because it doesn't like to see [TS]

00:36:28   everything grudging I'm just as strange scenario is strange situation we found [TS]

00:36:34   ourselves I mean this is what happens when it when a company you know I mean [TS]

00:36:37   microsoft word to your company with some profitable business can use that profit [TS]

00:36:41   to subsidize other businesses that its speculating into MIT these may or may [TS]

00:36:46   not be things that we want to get into you know and I guess I think we will [TS]

00:36:49   never had any illusions RSS was going to do a hockey stick but it's like my house [TS]

00:36:54   worth worth keeping our eye on and we should buy everything up that has [TS]

00:36:59   anything to do with it so that we can some said it was Marcus david Turner [TS]

00:37:03   when we feel like it ended like now is the time of your life and you know it [TS]

00:37:08   was easy because they are you had all that web crawling infrastructure in [TS]

00:37:11   place that they could use so it was easier for them to do it then it would [TS]

00:37:15   be for anyone else to do it or not not so much like because that's that's where [TS]

00:37:19   the that's their muscle that's you know their companies built on we can put up [TS]

00:37:22   services on the internet that scale to any number of people including the [TS]

00:37:27   entire internet like our storage does and our whole business is built around [TS]

00:37:30   like we have we all section the company just works on infrastructure constantly [TS]

00:37:35   improving it and sort of it helps every service that we do that's why whenever [TS]

00:37:38   the bar start to like okay I don't care what you're doing before it's time to [TS]

00:37:42   get things we know what they were doing and even though our way seems crazy to [TS]

00:37:46   you let me tell you that you should rewrite travelgate indiscretion top of [TS]

00:37:50   our infrastructure which will delay your business for years and by the time [TS]

00:37:53   you're done maybe no monster product anymore but we're not gonna let you keep [TS]

00:37:57   running your crazy PHP Ruby thing here if we can help it because you really [TS]

00:38:00   need to get with the program and because our program is pretty damn good whereas [TS]

00:38:05   other random companies you know you're starting from scratch or even if you're [TS]

00:38:09   some other big companies like Microsoft is trying to get some days and expertise [TS]

00:38:12   and an apple and like they just none of those companies dedicated maybe Amazon [TS]

00:38:17   is the only other one that dedicates proportional to the same amount of [TS]

00:38:21   resources about we need to get our crap together service I because it's an [TS]

00:38:24   essential part of our business yeah I know we sell things but you know where [TS]

00:38:27   these me to come from well as you want to sell things better and hey that's a [TS]

00:38:32   marketable service yesterday and all those things and i think is the only [TS]

00:38:36   competitor who has the kind of expertise in scale and I think they're still much [TS]

00:38:42   more sort of slapped together evolved over a long period of time under [TS]

00:38:46   tremendous pressure with a crazy man with a weapon at their back versus sort [TS]

00:38:52   of Google's philosophical PHD's algorithmic strategy for indexing the [TS]

00:38:57   entire web anyway I don't know I mean that that kind of blew a lot of other [TS]

00:39:06   stuff that was being talked about me I guess we have a new pope and we now have [TS]

00:39:10   one less hard cast network but otherwise I don't know what's happening in the [TS]

00:39:16   world of technology market don't talk about South by Southwest come on my god [TS]

00:39:21   veteran of that are a number of tons of useful and insightful things to say I'm [TS]

00:39:27   so happy I didn't go this year before this or I think the year before that [TS]

00:39:30   that's a bold face lie cuz you're missing out on Salt Lake man I surprise [TS]

00:39:37   how are in the whole conference thing of it what it what a mess that is like it [TS]

00:39:42   first of all what that's worth talking briefly i think is Google i/o tickets [TS]

00:39:49   went on sale this morning and as usual sold out very very quickly and there are [TS]

00:39:55   lots of like I saw our friendship own complaining about duplicate transaction [TS]

00:39:59   logs that it did not sell out gracefully but it did so I quickly and and you know [TS]

00:40:06   we see with that we see with WBC selling out not that quickly but at least still [TS]

00:40:12   very quickly every year and there's an issue in question what do you really do [TS]

00:40:18   about that like what what can you do about that problem and because you don't [TS]

00:40:22   have any state tickets are gonna they're gonna come on sale and we don't know you [TS]

00:40:26   know it could be anytime between now and late May that they will probably make [TS]

00:40:30   tickets available for the immediacy of this year and we don't know and probably [TS]

00:40:34   gonna sell out within a half hour 45 minutes [TS]

00:40:39   Apple has tried different things you know different polarizations of like to [TS]

00:40:45   have these Tech Talks around around the country will become a mini WDC [TS]

00:40:50   country and you can get a ticket to those if you haven't gone to WTC [TS]

00:40:54   recently so this kind of a priority thing where if you get a lot out of one [TS]

00:40:57   you can go to the other but you know they they still have this problem of [TS]

00:41:03   there's just way more demand than there is supply of tickets and in you know [TS]

00:41:08   they can do the typical economic thing of just raised the price really high [TS]

00:41:11   because that would kind of make them look like dicks and that they would get [TS]

00:41:16   a lot of flak for that it would be worth it and like Google is making the problem [TS]

00:41:21   worse because Google i/o tickets it's becoming a pattern that Google gives [TS]

00:41:26   everyone free hardware at their devices that's usually worth about as much as [TS]

00:41:32   the ticket price looks like 900 bucks so like a lot of the people buying as [TS]

00:41:38   Google tickets are probably just wanting the free hardware and not really giving [TS]

00:41:41   a crap about the conference and so that's kinda like that i think is a [TS]

00:41:46   really bad thing for group for Google to be doing what they should probably stop [TS]

00:41:49   to think what what do you think Apple could do to reduce demand for WC or to [TS]

00:41:57   make it to make itself out less quickly or do you think the evening to solve [TS]

00:42:02   this problem is one thing they could do that like you talk about raising the [TS]

00:42:06   prices being seen as a dick move well this is also kind of a dick move but [TS]

00:42:10   it's one with economic precedent and its letter last as they can just do it [TS]

00:42:14   airlines doing over book and the reason I think this will work out with them is [TS]

00:42:18   that except for the keynote which I maybe maybe including keynote like you [TS]

00:42:24   see how the herd thins out as head start to come into effect and it's been far [TS]

00:42:29   even just like late in the day when people are just like going on fumes and [TS]

00:42:33   they just they just cant you know going in more I think you could probably over [TS]

00:42:39   any maybe this fire codes and stuff like that or whatever but that they're [TS]

00:42:42   limiting them but I think you could over book it and with the exception of a few [TS]

00:42:45   choke points [TS]

00:42:47   continue to be OK because really with the exception of like I know this [TS]

00:42:52   because I'm I'm there in every session like a crazy person you know [TS]

00:42:57   most people are not really things out it during certain points and so I feel like [TS]

00:43:02   they hit that's one way to get around the city somewhere tickets you know so [TS]

00:43:05   well as many tickets as he even if you think it's gonna be crazy that I don't [TS]

00:43:09   want to be like the classroom sizes are gonna be to join whenever I think it [TS]

00:43:13   will still work out because those rooms are not a capacity in the middle of the [TS]

00:43:16   week and some boring session as you know I don't know why I think you could [TS]

00:43:20   probably get maybe 20% more tickets sold that way not even more that somethin but [TS]

00:43:26   because I'm not saying this is gonna be a doubling in size is just over the [TS]

00:43:30   problem is that the the the popular or mainstream sessions really are filled up [TS]

00:43:37   to capacity and a lot of time and they do not have to wait on line for you know [TS]

00:43:42   twenty minutes or a half hour before the session starts and you get in there and [TS]

00:43:46   you can't even sit down and there's like only standing room of people backing up [TS]

00:43:49   in the back like 10 sessions like that and they duplicate them they're they're [TS]

00:43:54   addressing that was like the other one son on one day and then once I get two [TS]

00:43:58   days later whatever like this is all in service of not doing the things out by [TS]

00:44:02   Southwest Division I always keep going to bigger bigger venues like it that way [TS]

00:44:06   across the entire city right so you know you can't are just going to like even [TS]

00:44:11   bigger Convention Center in a different city and just get bigger and bigger but [TS]

00:44:14   can you can you get something out of the can you do something to improve things [TS]

00:44:18   keeping the same conference center and everything I think you can get a little [TS]

00:44:22   bit more about our booking and wonder you know this year maybe just some [TS]

00:44:27   paying attention but I don't think so I think this is actually happening this [TS]

00:44:31   year it seems like Apple pessimism is at an all-time high of just the company's [TS]

00:44:37   prospects that the effect of competition but rather the people who go to WWE see [TS]

00:44:42   right now [TS]

00:44:44   matter people who are selling popular apps in the App Store me da is probably [TS]

00:44:48   still pretty darn bullish about iOS in terms of money to make money in terms of [TS]

00:44:52   you know how much money do we put into this game and how much do we get out [TS]

00:44:55   keep making the games he say that but it's funny I would agree with you Marco [TS]

00:44:59   that I've had regular people who are not total dweeb like us come to me and say [TS]

00:45:04   yes [TS]

00:45:04   from getting iPhone again when I'm up for a new phone cuz haven't done [TS]

00:45:08   anything new in awhile yeah you know if your nerd you can say well what we [TS]

00:45:13   haven't done anything new but to a regular person I mean springboard looks [TS]

00:45:16   the same as always looked most of these apps mostly Liu Rui button is a UIButton [TS]

00:45:21   ey labels label all these things look the same table visa tableview granted [TS]

00:45:25   you have collection views now and haven't seen them use that much come to [TS]

00:45:28   think of it but it doesn't look flashy anymore and maybe Iowa 71 could do I i [TS]

00:45:36   dont know I completely agree I'm not saying is I think like you I wouldn't do [TS]

00:45:41   it the same be able to be like still like a rectangle the screen like us are [TS]

00:45:45   hovering above the desk by two inches like well there's there's there's [TS]

00:45:50   there's like the the people who write for The Verge who knows they're never [TS]

00:45:54   gonna be happy with whatever Apple does that go or actually the writers are good [TS]

00:45:59   the commenters on the verge are never going to be happy with whatever Apple [TS]

00:46:04   does its new because they're gonna complain no its not like Android [TS]

00:46:07   incentive enough in that segment they would they can't satisfy but like Casey [TS]

00:46:12   I have regular people asking me all the time or talking all the time about about [TS]

00:46:18   comments that make it sound like all this Apple skepticism in the media [TS]

00:46:24   actually reflects what they are thinking like it there is no question that [TS]

00:46:28   Apple's being significantly and severely affected by the attention in the media [TS]

00:46:35   that it gets and negatively I mean really I have regular people sit like [TS]

00:46:41   even a week ago I had somebody asked me how I think my getting an iPhone but I [TS]

00:46:46   heard the iPhone 5s is coming out next month so in a way like I here and every [TS]

00:46:50   day of course every iPhone but like what you hear like you know they didn't [TS]

00:46:55   change that much Michael have you seen the iPhone 5 believe me it's a big [TS]

00:47:00   difference the people I even giving it a shot because they're they're hearing in [TS]

00:47:04   the media and on the news on the website and everything they're hearing all the [TS]

00:47:07   stuff about Apple being doomed and not innovating enough I hear regular people [TS]

00:47:11   have asked me about Samsung for the first time ever in the last six months [TS]

00:47:14   I've never heard anybody else with Samsung in the last six months I'm now [TS]

00:47:17   hearing [TS]

00:47:18   and I think Apple's doing greed but the mainstream culture and the mainstream [TS]

00:47:26   and rhetoric around Apple is now that they're suffering and that's really [TS]

00:47:30   damaging them no question so I think there's only two things they could do to [TS]

00:47:35   to get the regular people ignoring the echo chamber people who don't even know [TS]

00:47:40   what the verges to get those people who still might come up there and change too [TS]

00:47:45   much what can you do to bring them home cuz I think like outside outside of the [TS]

00:47:50   tech nerd circles like there definitely is a medium that perception everything [TS]

00:47:54   better but like it when someone who doesn't even remember that Apple makes [TS]

00:47:58   the iPhone or just kind of big windows with the iPhone does when they get the [TS]

00:48:00   news story like I'm their local news or whatever that there are some problems [TS]

00:48:04   that's when I start to get this bad feelings what can you do to bring those [TS]

00:48:06   people out you can't do with new OS overall because no matter how crazy you [TS]

00:48:11   change springboard about how weird you make things look those people are never [TS]

00:48:15   going to know that's not how the phone always looked like they don't have [TS]

00:48:18   compared to that does not impress them that nothing you can get them he thereby [TS]

00:48:22   making a new product that gets people excited about Apple again [TS]

00:48:28   insert whatever product you on your television watched her board you know [TS]

00:48:32   self-driving car space ship anything like that automatically those people [TS]

00:48:38   like Apple's back at some crazy new thing blah blah blah suddenly the iPhone [TS]

00:48:42   seems viable again I wouldn't bank on that happening in the capital banking on [TS]

00:48:46   that happening to get themselves in the second thing I think what actually work [TS]

00:48:50   and they probably are going to be doing is just make it a big screen damage is [TS]

00:48:56   damage that sounds internet done that is has a big screen but done that like [TS]

00:49:00   before you aren't excited about it but now you now you are that is enough of a [TS]

00:49:05   change that a regular person has its bigger the regular programming notice [TS]

00:49:09   that change again not that I'm saying a big screen is not a good idea cuz I [TS]

00:49:13   think it is a good idea but I think that is the type of change [TS]

00:49:16   far beyond like a radical new UI or something like that that you put on the [TS]

00:49:20   phone which is much harder to do bigger screen I think can revitalize interest [TS]

00:49:27   in [TS]

00:49:27   in the iPhone biggest gainers lower-cost a combination of the two because I mean [TS]

00:49:32   Apple is behind the screen size wars and we talked about this last time of the [TS]

00:49:37   resolution of the stuff what they gonna do in that area but those are technical [TS]

00:49:41   details just bottom line is he someone you know when the Samsung s4 comes out [TS]

00:49:45   tomorrow whatever day it is going to be the new Galaxy phone its gonna have a [TS]

00:49:50   big amazing screen there's going to be bigger and more amazing her than the [TS]

00:49:55   iPhone 5 screen and regular people can see that they look at the iPhone 5 they [TS]

00:50:01   look at that on the phone and this label that's that's more and more of what they [TS]

00:50:04   want it looks better looks like Android phones that you know the big thing now [TS]

00:50:08   is it you know [TS]

00:50:09   native 1080p 120 like four hundred and sixty dpi or something [TS]

00:50:13   these are fairly amazing screens they're still pretty ninth in and yes they're [TS]

00:50:16   much bigger and heavier but like that's what I was up against here I think to [TS]

00:50:21   revitalize interest in its phone line in particular it's going to have to answer [TS]

00:50:25   to that and I think that's pretty much all take to get people the ball back [TS]

00:50:29   rolling on that and then their longer-term problem is you know what's [TS]

00:50:32   that I speak thing and I kinda figured that out there can do with TVs or [TS]

00:50:36   watches are however Karzai whatever that's a wonder I wonder a little bit if [TS]

00:50:43   some of this problem is self created in the sense that you know john even [TS]

00:50:47   talking for a long time about how poor Apple is at services and if you think [TS]

00:50:54   about it you know well as Siri was a brand new thing and it was supposed to [TS]

00:50:58   be amazing and it was supposed to cure all of our problems and it ended up [TS]

00:51:02   being fraught with problems and it was kind of a disaster but I think I was [TS]

00:51:08   successful in terms of getting people interested in its that phone you can [TS]

00:51:11   talk even to people bought it [TS]

00:51:13   talk to it on the first day played with it and then stopped using it because [TS]

00:51:17   it's quite alright I it has served its purpose that point I think people come [TS]

00:51:21   out of it with a generally positive like it's a positive experience I heard this [TS]

00:51:26   is fun you can talk to I bought this phone you can talk to me my friends at [TS]

00:51:29   all areas two days talking to it now I don't use anymore but I'm not sore about [TS]

00:51:33   it like I think basically I think syria with a net positive for the iOS platform [TS]

00:51:38   in the iPhone in general [TS]

00:51:40   but but it started positive it may or may not have been deposited yet Apple [TS]

00:51:44   maps which nobody nobody I mean obviously as nerds we understand kind of [TS]

00:51:51   the political motivations behind all this but for a regular human you didn't [TS]

00:51:55   want it in the first place [TS]

00:51:56   suddenly your phone which you previously loved one of the critical aspects of [TS]

00:52:01   this phone now socks and you didn't even ask for it and that's why you know I was [TS]

00:52:06   6 adoption from most reports I've looked at david smith's in awhile but you know [TS]

00:52:10   I was 6 adoption was terrible and so the Google Maps app came out well [TS]

00:52:16   negative perception certainly in a lot of people holding back but in the grand [TS]

00:52:20   scheme of things it was it was minimal and it hurt them PR was way more than [TS]

00:52:25   hurt I was 6 adoption rates I think this is another example of like the positive [TS]

00:52:30   a Syrian and eventually like it's like man you leave it and this was an initial [TS]

00:52:33   negative but I think the same phenomena happened in initial negative instead of [TS]

00:52:37   initial positive but eventually it's like like and now I think by people [TS]

00:52:42   buying phones like its transition that hurts its transition you know like you [TS]

00:52:46   know or helps you in the history of the transition to series like wow amazing [TS]

00:52:50   thing and this helped Apple get people into stores cause people to buy it and [TS]

00:52:53   then it was fun [TS]

00:52:55   the transition from you know that a bad thing suddenly this isn't a bad thing [TS]

00:53:00   and maps are bad and they're going from the maps that were better to the bad [TS]

00:53:03   ones are just I'm getting bad ones but that trickled off to an anyone buying a [TS]

00:53:06   phone now you know even though that Apple maps are still not as good as [TS]

00:53:11   Google Maps is kind of like oh this is just the maps my phone came with and if [TS]

00:53:15   I don't like them I can try the Google one and you know what's the big deal [TS]

00:53:19   right so I think maybe those two things cancel each other out but I think going [TS]

00:53:23   forward neither one of them are a factor except for maybe reputation whisenand [TS]

00:53:27   nerds I I think like they've they've cleared they cleared the PR disaster [TS]

00:53:33   maps and Iran to like now that you know we got to see what the next thing is are [TS]

00:53:36   we gonna have something that's going to be a big negative a big positive they [TS]

00:53:39   need something for the next phone other than just like it's faster slightly but [TS]

00:53:44   I know I'm not really sure that anything to do with the next iPhone although I do [TS]

00:53:49   agree that they need to make screen bigger for at least one of the models [TS]

00:53:52   are they so [TS]

00:53:53   just excited to see you know I'm not I'm not entirely sold on the cheaper one [TS]

00:53:59   idea although we should talk about two and a half you saw so I've been talking [TS]

00:54:04   about the the the weird new CPU and the Apple TV that was just released updated [TS]

00:54:10   quietly and shippers has post here up it into our chat thing so that you can see [TS]

00:54:16   it had a post up that they've been taking apart the CPU and it and they [TS]

00:54:22   found to my original theory we should talk about it I believe in episode one [TS]

00:54:26   of the show my original theory was that what you know is originally we thought [TS]

00:54:31   that they were died shrinking the 85 acts and there's really no good reason [TS]

00:54:36   for the Apple TV is a need in a five acts yet maybe if they have future model [TS]

00:54:41   that can do high end games maybe then ok but there was really no good reason for [TS]

00:54:45   10 if I backs we later found out a couple days ago we found out that it is [TS]

00:54:51   indeed not an A five experts it's an A five that is somehow a lot smaller than [TS]

00:54:55   the normally five package show again we speculated ok to die shrink so what we [TS]

00:55:00   gonna do with the new 85 cause the Apple TV doesn't have an Apple TVs to justify [TS]

00:55:06   making a whole separate processor for it so now the the most recent news that we [TS]

00:55:12   have is that the processor and new Apple TV is indeed still in a five is [TS]

00:55:19   substantially smaller than the regular a five but the reason why is his only has [TS]

00:55:24   one CPU core instead of two it's still the same process the believe it's a 32 [TS]

00:55:31   nanometer process from Samsung so it still has a manufacturing process just [TS]

00:55:37   now is only one coroner chip now before with the Apple TV I believe didn't we [TS]

00:55:41   say they were they were like burning out one course whether it failed by just [TS]

00:55:45   perfect sense because by the by the time they've been manufacturing do crossword [TS]

00:55:50   for a five social long time the number of ones that are bomb that have one bad [TS]

00:55:55   karma them down now has got to be pretty darn low I mean I guess the question of [TS]

00:55:59   like where they just you know it's inefficient use of the ones that weren't [TS]

00:56:02   where one car doesn't work rather they are they literally taking them in and [TS]

00:56:05   and you know burning the fuse is out on the one on one of the course if it was [TS]

00:56:10   the case that they were trying to get things that one court didn't work [TS]

00:56:14   presumably the number of those has dwindled now because they really you [TS]

00:56:17   know they've been making the ship forever so many more like leftovers for [TS]

00:56:21   it but given how few Apple TVs they sell it would probably still be cheaper to [TS]

00:56:26   just give him dual core working chips than it would be to make a separate I'm [TS]

00:56:31   looking at this was the whole reason why the AppleTV CPU changes interesting is [TS]

00:56:36   the theory that they make so few of these it doesn't justify a custom CPU so [TS]

00:56:41   therefore whatever CPU they're using in this is probably gonna be put into a [TS]

00:56:45   future more popular product and so that's that's I think we're considering [TS]

00:56:50   like what could they make with a small single core a five and that to me [TS]

00:56:57   screams low-end iPhone or low and iPad Mini I suppose it's possible it's really [TS]

00:57:05   tough to tell because it's not it's not Herculean effort to and they have been [TS]

00:57:11   so Mr Apple TV soap making you sing of Corey five just for the Apple tea is not [TS]

00:57:15   is not crazy crazy they really have been increasing number of these things that [TS]

00:57:19   they sell and especially if they're whatever they're crazy Grand TV plan it [TS]

00:57:25   keeps getting pushed off into the future for you know presumably content related [TS]

00:57:29   reasons that there may be just playing for the future of the Apple TV and [TS]

00:57:33   unlike the other things that run apps and stuff there's no real reason that [TS]

00:57:37   year after year the Apple TV has to get tremendously faster or they finally got [TS]

00:57:40   up to 1080p like what more does it need to do like it shows video in 1080p you [TS]

00:57:46   can't run apps on it it could be there selling in for the long winter waiting [TS]

00:57:51   for whatever the heck you know and they want to continue to you know have sixty [TS]

00:57:54   percent year-over-year growth on the Apple TV or whatever they were happy for [TS]

00:57:57   their selling a not insignificant number these things maybe now it deserves its [TS]

00:58:01   own chip not a big deal chip just a single for a five single Corey 544 a [TS]

00:58:07   cheaper phone I'm wondering how much cheaper does that make it because the [TS]

00:58:12   cost of a single core fibers dual [TS]

00:58:14   comes down to the area of the check out and like the big cost components in that [TS]

00:58:19   things like I have to imagine like the screen the battery the CPU GPU and the [TS]

00:58:25   case are your big cost components there I'm not sure how much shaving a tiny [TS]

00:58:29   little bit of cost on the CPU is gonna lie is not going to get you over the [TS]

00:58:32   line in terms of low-cost [TS]

00:58:36   I'm not sure I'm not alone but you know if you can shave X percent off of a lot [TS]

00:58:41   of the key components then that I was gonna say in aggregate in my piano it's [TS]

00:58:46   conceivable I mean like do we think that the single-core if I was sure other than [TS]

00:58:54   a low-cost phone I mean motion is not multithreaded so we can kind of look and [TS]

00:59:01   see a torrid pace for animation is multithreaded ok but most of the things [TS]

00:59:06   that are releasing that absurd doing for the most part I think we'd be fine with [TS]

00:59:12   single core for a low end product I think if you look at you know if they're [TS]

00:59:18   trying to shave off dollars and cents here to try to get down to lower price [TS]

00:59:23   points for surviving the iPad Mini is probably the more obvious choice here [TS]

00:59:27   than an iPhone just because the iPhones are still subsidized in most markets so [TS]

00:59:31   they have more room to play with their wares the iPad Mini it they want to get [TS]

00:59:35   that down she ended a five is probably even with this with the smaller version [TS]

00:59:41   I would imagine a five is probably still too much power [TS]

00:59:46   GB using something like a watch I I don't think that would work but I think [TS]

00:59:52   it will be fine as a low-end model 44 even the iPhone or the iPad I'll see you [TS]

00:59:58   think like the iPad Mini I have problems here too because like again I think of [TS]

01:00:04   you know if they want to push you want to push to have any price down to give [TS]

01:00:08   an even lower price one where are they going to get where else they gonna pull [TS]

01:00:13   value out of that cheaper cameras slightly cheaper CPU they can't really [TS]

01:00:18   give it less battery they can't rely on the contrary if they only have one CPU [TS]

01:00:23   core they can give it a little bit better [TS]

01:00:26   like I have I have it easier time thinking that you could shave down a [TS]

01:00:32   phone because it's it's subsidized that you know that you could you could work [TS]

01:00:36   it out so that it ends up looking way cheaper to the customer you just have a [TS]

01:00:40   little bit of cost maybe martin slow I'm not sure how much you can squeeze the [TS]

01:00:44   many with a single Corey 5 it and I'm also not sure that I've never wants to [TS]

01:00:49   take any of its products and go backwards in terms of performance you [TS]

01:00:54   know so can I prove those two alternate theories one of which i think is [TS]

01:01:01   ridiculous and other i think is marginally ridiculous 24 interrupt you [TS]

01:01:06   that's probably true so one of the means what if the whole point of this and and [TS]

01:01:12   one of you guys just inferred it a second ago what is the point of this [TS]

01:01:15   this chip is physically smaller Zanotti so the whole point was one of the whole [TS]

01:01:22   point was either to increase battery volume in the same size case or [TS]

01:01:26   alternatively what if we are finally getting our iPhone Nano that we've we [TS]

01:01:30   used to talk about constantly and then gave up on if you really want to space [TS]

01:01:35   back to you you just ranked 29 metres or get in till 2022 space back that's the [TS]

01:01:41   way to do it you don't get your car and stick the 32 like it if space but you [TS]

01:01:46   know I'm more inclined to believe the cost is the reason that you take a 32 [TS]

01:01:50   nanometer process that you already have your manufacturers are now have a lot of [TS]

01:01:53   experience with really good yields not pushing the limits of technology to give [TS]

01:01:58   me one of the little bit cheaper but if you run into space back if you want to [TS]

01:02:02   drive by 49 or something you did you get this much easier to get that space but [TS]

01:02:07   going through a process I mean this [TS]

01:02:09   20 nanometers seems like it's in the cards for 2013 for Apple products from [TS]

01:02:14   you know Taiwan Semiconductor or whoever they gonna do that and if the Intel [TS]

01:02:19   things come through maybe that's not going to happen this year maybe next [TS]

01:02:21   year but if that isn't just a pipe dream but I think that's the way it space back [TS]

01:02:26   will you see that that's the easiest way to get space back but it's also more [TS]

01:02:31   expensive way to get space back is not right but it's a it's an expensive [TS]

01:02:35   anyway like it's not like you're gonna stick it there [TS]

01:02:37   forever like that the train is going along and like this is the year that [TS]

01:02:41   were Apple all the other phone manufacturers are already at 28 or lower [TS]

01:02:44   the Android big Android guys already have phones that you know I have 20 [TS]

01:02:48   nanometers quad-core things with 1080p screens on them like they're they're [TS]

01:02:52   outclassing Apple hardware in all respects with the exception of power [TS]

01:02:56   consumption but they make up for it by having a bigger battery because they [TS]

01:02:58   have bigger screens right so you know it it's gonna happen anyway Apple's gonna [TS]

01:03:03   have to make the transition if you gonna do that you wait to put out your iPhone [TS]

01:03:06   Nano until all your components shrink down and I believe also like shrinking [TS]

01:03:11   we always talk about the CPUs and GPUs as well and whatever other components [TS]

01:03:17   inside there not many but there are other ones and some of them I think [TS]

01:03:19   Anandtech had a good article about the the process used for the cell radios [TS]

01:03:24   which are limited by their various analog things that go into them but [TS]

01:03:28   those could stand to be mean that's what you know the first LTE chipsets were not [TS]

01:03:33   great and sucked up a lot of battery there are other places where you can get [TS]

01:03:36   some savings by shrinks or just you know even if you had a 20 nanometers CPU of [TS]

01:03:40   all the rest of your chips are family like 45 are 65 or some crazy size that [TS]

01:03:46   can make you said as well so there's no bring bring all the internal components [TS]

01:03:51   of your mobile thing along on a train of continual process shrinks I think you [TS]

01:03:56   can get to your iPhone Nano with that technique and that's this may be the [TS]

01:04:01   only way you can get there because otherwise if you just take the internal [TS]

01:04:04   exile like there's a lot of room left over in the iPhone 5 as it is and just [TS]

01:04:08   shrinking the screen is not going to have any that's going to hurt you if [TS]

01:04:11   you're in for a battery in there so I'm not sure the iPhone that it was a [TS]

01:04:15   concept really makes much sense and if it does I think they'll get there by [TS]

01:04:20   shrinking not by chopping of course thing to like just demand might not [TS]

01:04:25   really be there for that I mean people want their smartphone screens to be big [TS]

01:04:28   and I think I think the any Apple will very well address the marketing people [TS]

01:04:34   who want to keep it smart phones small with the regular sized iPhone and and I [TS]

01:04:40   really don't think they're gonna go big only in the product line but I don't [TS]

01:04:45   think they have to go smaller than the iPhone 5 size really I think they might [TS]

01:04:50   go [TS]

01:04:50   a big only I cannot see the iPhone sex having a larger screen than the five and [TS]

01:04:57   then not offering a small one except for spy still selling the iPhone 5s well the [TS]

01:05:00   only reason they could the only way they could do that I think would be if the [TS]

01:05:04   screen was bigger but not like a ton bigger and I'm not expecting that make [TS]

01:05:10   phablet will but but the problem is if they don't really make a substantial [TS]

01:05:14   jump that it's not gonna really served him very well in the reasons why they [TS]

01:05:19   should be the big screen in the first place it's not gonna really stand up [TS]

01:05:21   well in a store next to these giant Android phones it's not gonna [TS]

01:05:25   potentially replace the need for an iPad for some people are at least they they [TS]

01:05:30   would think that they would buy that it would stand up better in the store just [TS]

01:05:33   a little bit bigger I mean is the question we talked about last week it's [TS]

01:05:37   like you just make it bigger the same res which is what we also I believe that [TS]

01:05:42   we completely adequate to give them the boost they need of having something [TS]

01:05:45   bigger or do you bite the bullet and actually you know whether it's 1080p or [TS]

01:05:49   pick a new canonical Rezko's about the Hindu konaga residents with the iPad I [TS]

01:05:55   guarantee you'll do it again sometime in the history of iOS you know before the [TS]

01:05:58   company goes out of business and heat death of the universe there will be new [TS]

01:06:01   resolution besides you know 1024 by 768 points and 15 phone is a need to do with [TS]

01:06:07   the iPhone 5 as well like that will happen is just a question of when the [TS]

01:06:11   question now is it too soon they just went off on it too soon to that the way [TS]

01:06:16   generation to pump it out again but that's going to happen and I i could see [TS]

01:06:20   them doing that sooner rather than later if they start feeling the pinch ya but [TS]

01:06:25   if they only make one size iPhone then like a magic pill made one size laptop [TS]

01:06:30   like what size would that be probably 13 right and then then you'll do you miss [TS]

01:06:35   out on the great value of the 15 in the 1100 if you look at the phones like if [TS]

01:06:41   they're gonna keep having just one model for the foreseeable future after make [TS]

01:06:45   the next one bigger say then they're missing out on all the greatness in [TS]

01:06:50   product design all the sales all the goodwill that would come from the people [TS]

01:06:54   who would want the smaller phones [TS]

01:06:56   25 we have now compared to other big funds at least and people who would want [TS]

01:07:01   even bigger phones like 20 phablets [TS]

01:07:03   its I think ultimately as this market matures which I think it's pretty safe [TS]

01:07:08   to say the smartphone market is premature at this point I think they [TS]

01:07:13   have to go to multiple sizes I was I was on my 2013 to-do list you know putting [TS]

01:07:19   on diversified the iPhone line and that means not just keep selling the old one [TS]

01:07:22   as well as your different size so yeah like the reason I say that is not [TS]

01:07:27   inconceivable that because that's what happens I'm over so long there is one [TS]

01:07:30   iPhone and there's the older iPhones the older iPhone still our needs and what [TS]

01:07:33   I've been saying they need to do with diversified line by not doing that by [TS]

01:07:36   having you know there's actually not a one iPhone there's actually two iPhones [TS]

01:07:40   and possibly some older one and what if what if they're single Corey five is how [TS]

01:07:44   they do that you know you can combine them both and say I where diversifying [TS]

01:07:49   the line we're getting a bigger screen and the way we're diversifying is that [TS]

01:07:52   the one with the small screen cheap on exactly which would disappoint the [TS]

01:07:55   people who want a smartphone its full performance with a should feel the same [TS]

01:07:58   pain that iPod Touch users have had to feel we just want all the good things [TS]

01:08:02   but you can never get all the good things so that they have so many options [TS]

01:08:07   for how they can diversify their line with the just wanna do inside there also [TS]

01:08:10   are trying to do it on cost them in how they come out with three of them I can [TS]

01:08:14   go right from having one phone to having three funds like it it's conceivable all [TS]

01:08:18   these things are possible I don't know which one of them it's hard to read what [TS]

01:08:22   they think the issue is we all think they need a bigger screen does Apple [TS]

01:08:26   believe that I think at this point probably do some of us think they can [TS]

01:08:31   benefit from a lower cost one that I can imagine the bean counters Apple going [TS]

01:08:34   you know it actually that's something that you as a customer but actually we [TS]

01:08:38   boris for Apple as a business or not gonna do that you know I have a hard [TS]

01:08:42   time seeing into that calculus so to take this sort of kind of full circle [TS]

01:08:49   does that mean that in order to continue to what was the Steve Jobs -ism like to [TS]

01:08:56   know [TS]

01:08:56   delight and amaze our customers whatever was in order to keep people talk about [TS]

01:09:01   the iPhone is one really mean what I really mean do they not do a 5s this [TS]

01:09:05   this year do they instead do either a six or do they do a 5s and a iPhone plus [TS]

01:09:12   whatever you guys called it [TS]

01:09:13   is that enough to get something non ex on something unexpected enough to get [TS]

01:09:19   people talking positively about the iPhone again that's a timing issue I [TS]

01:09:23   think like if they could they definitely would like to say that right now like if [TS]

01:09:27   they if they had planned enough in advance and for seeing this like they [TS]

01:09:33   would definitely do that like maybe like maybe that you know I just don't think [TS]

01:09:37   that the current situation they find themselves in they planned on 23 years [TS]

01:09:43   out and that's the kind of planning you have to have to have to say we're going [TS]

01:09:46   to go from you know this 404 s 55 s cadens actually we're not going to do [TS]

01:09:49   that with the five were gonna do for for us I'm gonna do 596 start planning now [TS]

01:09:53   cuz they had they would have to start playing it very long time ago I think [TS]

01:09:57   they would really benefit from that but they didn't start playing 23 years ago I [TS]

01:10:01   don't think big they're capable I think like they just got a ship what they have [TS]

01:10:05   which is going to be a 5s [TS]

01:10:06   gone and we don't know like the problem is where we have incomplete information [TS]

01:10:12   so we don't know all the hard stuff like whatever whatever the heck else they're [TS]

01:10:16   doing this not a phone is not an iPad presumably there's something for several [TS]

01:10:21   things on various burners in various states of whatever any of those things [TS]

01:10:24   if they come to a boil [TS]

01:10:26   you know make this much less of an issue we got the 5s but we also got that Apple [TS]

01:10:32   hover car no one cares that it's free in five [TS]

01:10:34   like whatever crazy other things whether it's watches or TV stuff for you know [TS]

01:10:40   new services are they buy some other company like so many other things can [TS]

01:10:45   not make this an issue but if there's nothing new for this entire year and [TS]

01:10:49   they just have the 5s and make all their products better in the way that we [TS]

01:10:53   always expected to make things better I think that will not be a great year for [TS]

01:10:58   Apple in terms of their perception in the industry although I would argue that [TS]

01:11:04   they have liked grover talks a lot about the concept of momentum and I would [TS]

01:11:12   argue right now russian reaction yet that Apple has so much negative [TS]

01:11:18   momentum attraction and the press or and people's perceptions of how they're [TS]

01:11:22   doing they have so much negativity around them right now and and skepticism [TS]

01:11:28   and doubt that I don't think anything they released this year is going to fix [TS]

01:11:32   that I don't think it can be fixed they can release a flying unicorn watch [TS]

01:11:36   toaster tomorrow and and it wouldn't change anybody's mind everyone if they [TS]

01:11:42   released some new product that was actually good to actually be good that [TS]

01:11:48   would that would turn it around the only product they will come out of the year [TS]

01:11:51   and it would just be like a bomb but the only product that they've released in [TS]

01:11:55   recent memory that everyone thought was good from the start was the iPhone and [TS]

01:11:58   I'm not ever gonna nothings gonna stop in like net net coming out of it in the [TS]

01:12:02   same naysayers that everybody having an iPad had them the iPhone is probably [TS]

01:12:06   have the most positive reception but even that had like oil tonight sporadic [TS]

01:12:09   but you're not gonna be a phone maker me you know you're not going to just walk [TS]

01:12:13   in like everything's got the negative it doesn't matter like the net out of that [TS]

01:12:16   was exciting new thing Apple's exciting doing exciting new thing that's risky [TS]

01:12:21   and interesting and i wanna know what's going on with it right whereas just keep [TS]

01:12:26   making better Max and better iPads and iPhones year after year some which are [TS]

01:12:33   you know are not as interesting as like the best phones from best Android phones [TS]

01:12:37   that's that's boring and the worst thing I want to be as boring I mean you know [TS]

01:12:42   if you even if they come with the watch and everyone says it's piece of crap [TS]

01:12:45   that's more exciting than not coming out with a lot right and the net at the end [TS]

01:12:50   of the year I think would be positive from that position like everyone hates [TS]

01:12:53   it but who knows it's kind of crazy and it's got this one interesting thing that [TS]

01:12:56   we didn't think of it you know [TS]

01:12:58   uncertainty and excitement is more interesting than just boring iteration [TS]

01:13:02   of the same things although I don't understand the finance industry like it [TS]

01:13:05   when they want during iteration when they want a gigantic machine that turns [TS]

01:13:08   out money but I guess they want explosive growth so they were looking [TS]

01:13:11   for the next hockey stick graph and the grass for the phones and I pattern on [TS]

01:13:15   hockey sticky enough for them [TS]

01:13:20   horses grab some may seem to like their stuff but forgot Pendergraph that should [TS]

01:13:27   be like wow small smiles looking at growth curve it's great and apples [TS]

01:13:30   dominate the tablet industry and you know this great things and the story is [TS]

01:13:34   still Android tablets to surpass iPads next year which may actually be true but [TS]

01:13:40   it's like you know they have two great products and hockey stick trajectories [TS]

01:13:43   that the phone and iPad and that's not enough was not enough writers it used [TS]

01:13:48   those things you look more attractive when they had like no competitors and [TS]

01:13:52   going back to acacia said earlier this is Ben as we discussed last episode this [TS]

01:13:57   is like a draft blog post my head for weeks and I just haven't written out but [TS]

01:14:01   not all over it for you guys here I feel like Apple's next big product you know [TS]

01:14:07   all the press and maybe the public they wanted to be some gadget they say oh I [TS]

01:14:12   wanted to be a watch or I want a toaster or I want to have a car that's not a [TS]

01:14:19   gadget gadget he its people who want her cars are probably people who wants my [TS]

01:14:23   watch is also so everyone has to be some kind of hardware gadget a TV set to be [TS]

01:14:28   the problem is boring product ever you know they all these things and there was [TS]

01:14:34   there is also speaking of grouper good discussion of this on talk show with a [TS]

01:14:38   guy English and grammar last week but I think Apple's next big product shouldn't [TS]

01:14:44   be any of those things it should be dramatically improving their services [TS]

01:14:50   and their software in that order and and i know i mean I know it's not going to [TS]

01:14:56   happen [TS]

01:14:57   and it would make anybody except users and nerds happy you know it's not flashy [TS]

01:15:03   it's not very newsworthy most of the time like it's not gonna it's not going [TS]

01:15:08   to fix their perception but what their products need the most is significant [TS]

01:15:15   substantial progress in services and quality of software and that I would [TS]

01:15:22   much rather they take what they already have what they've already started all [TS]

01:15:28   these different things they have going on these platforms just make them really [TS]

01:15:32   great make the services better and improve the quality of the software I [TS]

01:15:37   would much rather have that much we know that but but you're right that the [TS]

01:15:44   market does not demand that even though the markets better off with that but the [TS]

01:15:48   gadget they would see it it's like a shark stop moving my god they're [TS]

01:15:53   retrenching and in some respects the Apple as like they're a little tiny bit [TS]

01:16:00   them if they don't think they recognize this from a technical perspective at [TS]

01:16:03   least expect the perspective that's what the maps thing was about its like the [TS]

01:16:08   future the future is more of this network in active service things not [TS]

01:16:12   less we need to take control of this we need to take the reins and you know they [TS]

01:16:15   screwed up read maps but at least they recognize that is not a tenable [TS]

01:16:19   long-term strategy to rely on your your most bitter rival for an essential [TS]

01:16:25   service that your phone provides so you know we all understand why they added [TS]

01:16:28   him at least this some recognition that they realized that speech recognition [TS]

01:16:32   could be another similar issue with them not really knowing that technology but [TS]

01:16:36   if they if they if they woke up one day and fully realized how screwed they are [TS]

01:16:43   on their inability to network services and how and how important they're going [TS]

01:16:47   to be in the future they would have to sign themselves up for a multi-year sort [TS]

01:16:52   of dark period of getting you know figuring that stuff out kind of like the [TS]

01:16:57   multi-year dark period coming out of the nineties where they had the whole crappy [TS]

01:17:00   oster they had to read [TS]

01:17:02   and they had to keep the company in business and then start work on the next [TS]

01:17:05   big thing and they did you know they came out of it and when gangbusters [TS]

01:17:08   right they probably need another period like that to get their house in order on [TS]

01:17:16   the server side stuff because it's not like we're in a future where that [TS]

01:17:20   service I stuff is going to be less important you know there's no going back [TS]

01:17:23   and so these need to get really good at it or get really chummy with someone [TS]

01:17:27   whose interests are aligned with theirs who is good at it and that used to be [TS]

01:17:30   cool but it's not anymore so you know i mean all these reasons are like people [TS]

01:17:34   keep saying that was getting slammed for illogical reasons or like oh they making [TS]

01:17:39   all this money hand over fist walter is crazy and some respects the like the [TS]

01:17:44   negativity that that is reflected in the the press about them is like cumulation [TS]

01:17:52   of all the negative things that I had been thinking about Apple had like the [TS]

01:17:55   past 10 years but at the time I was thinking no one else agree with them [TS]

01:17:59   like Apple going gangbusters everybody loves it all our products are great and [TS]

01:18:02   you be like but but service i'd this may be like what are you talking about their [TS]

01:18:05   stuff you know and now it's kind of all coming home to roost and maybe maybe [TS]

01:18:10   that's his projection maybe they're they're being negative numbers but I [TS]

01:18:13   don't think the current negative view of Apple is that crazy I mean it's kind of [TS]

01:18:18   crazy and term I don't know the details of the finances of evidence like you see [TS]

01:18:22   they're making tons of money like they're not going out of business [TS]

01:18:24   they're successful company that will run they have lots of people like all things [TS]

01:18:27   girly post again and again but the same time I see where all their strategic [TS]

01:18:31   weaknesses are and I see that it's not like you can snap your fingers and make [TS]

01:18:34   the strategic weaknesses go away and even making an apple new new Apple TV or [TS]

01:18:38   a watch does not make all those weaknesses go away just staves off the [TS]

01:18:42   inevitable for a little bit longer in fact a new gadget or a new platform [TS]

01:18:46   would probably make a lot of these problems worse because here's here's [TS]

01:18:53   more things that require software and services they're having trouble keeping [TS]

01:18:57   up with i mean like they're presumably they're they're reaping the benefits to [TS]

01:19:01   go groups is like okay well we do have a new TV thing presumably you know it's [TS]

01:19:07   based on iOS and we can leverage the App Store and we can leverage I club like [TS]

01:19:10   summary there they are getting a common core of stuff that they work on [TS]

01:19:13   that makes all their products better it's not like you know they're going to [TS]

01:19:16   go out and make something totally unrelated where they can use any of [TS]

01:19:19   their tech or platform so it's a marginal increase but I like the thing [TS]

01:19:23   that makes us feel bad about us like is like a distraction I could you just get [TS]

01:19:27   the crap that you have now to work right like stop watch stuff like you just you [TS]

01:19:31   take it you don't we have this crazy perception that probably isn't rooted in [TS]

01:19:34   reality of them taken off their triple-a players and putting them on whatever the [TS]

01:19:39   bigger projects like the best most awesome iPhone people and put them on [TS]

01:19:43   the upper watch right and like now like you don't put those guys off we need [TS]

01:19:47   good people like we felt like we had like that when they you know seemingly [TS]

01:19:51   pulled like the big good awesome important people off Pakistan for a [TS]

01:19:54   while to be all hands on deck with the you know I S in the App Store just the [TS]

01:19:58   right business decision but like they have finite resources and we don't want [TS]

01:20:02   them to be there was nothing on the talk show episode we don't want them to be [TS]

01:20:05   spread too thin like they don't have an infinite number of Awesometown to people [TS]

01:20:09   and with with the financials and the share price and everything going down it [TS]

01:20:14   may be harder to acquire and retain those amazing people so maybe you don't [TS]

01:20:19   have somebody to spread around is used to mean it's that's a major problem for [TS]

01:20:24   them is the size of the company is talent wise it's more than it needs to [TS]

01:20:30   be they have very limited resources they are taking a look at these things and [TS]

01:20:34   you're right that the business case for pulling a snow leopard Snow Leopard they [TS]

01:20:40   basically spent what was at eighteen months development of it not adding a [TS]

01:20:46   lot of user physical features you know the whole the whole message of snow [TS]

01:20:49   leopard was gonna rebuild a lot of the foundation of this ad things you know [TS]

01:20:53   really important foundational API's like Grand Central Dispatch gonna really make [TS]

01:20:58   the foundation better and awesome and fix a lot of bugs rather than adding a [TS]

01:21:02   whole bunch of new user facing features and mountain lion was kind of like that [TS]

01:21:07   you know compared to Lyon but I i feel like they need to have something need to [TS]

01:21:12   have a period like that for the for services and for all there's hope you [TS]

01:21:17   like a company-wide period of like two years improving the stuff we have but [TS]

01:21:23   you're right that business wise and market wise [TS]

01:21:26   that will never be a smart idea to do well they could afford to do it on the [TS]

01:21:31   Mac because all eyes were on iOS that's true so that's one that's one reprieve I [TS]

01:21:35   mean there's no excuse for the services because like like I guess you're never [TS]

01:21:42   gonna be all I clogs that's the nature of services is like an underpinning [TS]

01:21:44   infrastructure but if they know that their game Jersey third platform but if [TS]

01:21:48   they if they did I will be off Iowa's briefly and then those guys could do you [TS]

01:21:54   know Iowa State which will be there Snow Leopard or whatever right but thats I [TS]

01:21:58   don't think that's going to happen two platforms is plenty for them they're [TS]

01:22:03   much more likely to me maybe they get away with it and I'm like you know the [TS]

01:22:08   watch your TV or some other thing where it gets its own Fork of the OS is still [TS]

01:22:12   iOS based or whatever and then you have time to sort of you know ten down the [TS]

01:22:18   finalists but I don't think service is a much more dire than than the OS think [TS]

01:22:23   they're on a pretty good track with the OS revisions I think there are ready and [TS]

01:22:28   refinement mode on iOS yeah there's a couple of major things they need to add [TS]

01:22:32   here and there but the service is a really big deal just because it's not [TS]

01:22:37   something you do by snapping your fingers in like there they can have a [TS]

01:22:40   snow leopard release of services to cure their problems that's it's much it's a [TS]

01:22:43   problem that can't be fixed in 12 to 18 months exactly and it requires a lot of [TS]

01:22:47   substantial changes stansel investments in infrastructure and talented does that [TS]

01:22:53   and you know really really big shift and big investments that just take a long [TS]

01:22:58   time even if they were a hundred percent prioritize on that right now right this [TS]

01:23:02   second that just takes a long time to build up so if they want to do that fast [TS]

01:23:06   here's my advice to them by Facebook shut down use the talent to have enough [TS]

01:23:12   money to buy facebook probably not might be closed her big investment to remove [TS]

01:23:17   facebook from the earth which is it a general good take all those people [TS]

01:23:23   mostly gonna leave and go off and do other things but enough of them will [TS]

01:23:26   stay then they know how to do it like they're not Google caliber people but [TS]

01:23:31   they know how to run a service that people use that has better reliability [TS]

01:23:35   of an iPod right so yeah that's why I would've [TS]

01:23:40   think like it they would have bought Twitter me now I don't think it would [TS]

01:23:44   sell at a price they tried rightfully if they would have bought Twitter they [TS]

01:23:47   would have had a lot of that type of town a lot of experience and [TS]

01:23:51   infrastructure I'm not but but not you know certainly probably better than [TS]

01:23:57   whatever happens doing now [TS]

01:23:59   mean isn't a lot of iCloud still outsourced to Microsoft as your and I [TS]

01:24:04   was gonna say exactly that I don't think microsoft is terribly capable as a host [TS]

01:24:09   on like Amazon whom has become very capable as a host but I wonder and I was [TS]

01:24:15   going to ask you guys and so you brought it up I wonder if Apple and Microsoft [TS]

01:24:19   could find a common enemy in Google and perhaps the two of them could from [TS]

01:24:23   belong together in order to improve their services to the point that they're [TS]

01:24:27   actually that's kind of what they're doing isn't it like you have to wait for [TS]

01:24:33   Microsoft to be much to a fallen much even lower than it has now for them to [TS]

01:24:38   ever because Microsoft is in the same situation as Apple kind of where they [TS]

01:24:42   both recognize that Google does that server side stuff better just a [TS]

01:24:45   Microsoft has been in typical Microsoft fashion and much more sort of head down [TS]

01:24:51   ok this is an area where we are not strong working in true hire you know the [TS]

01:24:55   guy who did Lotus Notes and we're gonna or revamp our entire service site [TS]

01:24:59   architecture to be serious about this and like Apple hasn't done all that are [TS]

01:25:02   these not as publicly who knows what they're doing internally but it's [TS]

01:25:05   clearly not a top line item you know so I don't see Microsoft as a big win for [TS]

01:25:14   Apple to cooperate in this regard and I also don't see Microsoft ever stooping [TS]

01:25:18   to that level and say we're just gonna be your help in the battle against [TS]

01:25:21   Microsoft Google and Microsoft still wants to be a big player even though we [TS]

01:25:26   all kind of recognize that it's not going to be well everyone except [TS]

01:25:29   Microsoft [TS]