5: Negativity, Skepticism, and Doubt
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people treating me think that was drunk last show you didn't get essentially
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terrible best not to use only when your drunk like when your second people
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people crazy so what we talked about tonight I think I know I mean I think we
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have to talk about the Google Reader thing I think we do so let me start by
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asking to either of you guys believe in RSS I presume the answer is a resounding
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yes it exists whether you believe it or not it's all good just like Love III use
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ours is constantly lot of people have always said that the RSS is dead and I i
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dont use RSS I could replace it with Twitter whatever and I think that's true
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for a lot of people certainly but RSS as a technology is fine it behind the
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scenes of quite a lot of things and a lot of people do use it the way you
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think of when you say do you use are as a lot of people still do that and I
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don't really think that's ever going away because it serves water really good
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functions of the problem with ours as well one of the problems are says is
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that it gives you a really really easy way to shoot yourself in the foot which
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is you subscribe to all the sites that everyone's heard of all the big like 30
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posts a day blogs and news sites and everything so it's very very easy to
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reach a point where you're getting like 500 new RSS items per day and you just
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don't you can get all that and so it piles up and it becomes this guilt in
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box that you never want to clear and so I usually that results in New abandoning
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our assessment can I can never go back to RSS too many unread items you know
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that happens a lot especially with geeks and so I can totally see why people move
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off of our assessment at that point but it doesn't mean that you have to admit
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the only option and doesn't mean RSS is dead or dying it just means you're using
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it badly and sure you know it it's partially the technology's fault for
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being so easy to misuse or to use an unsustainable way for you for yourself
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that's not to say the entire technology is dead and you can eat people at the
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same problem with Twitter where they follow too many people and they can't
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keep up with their feed and so they they find ways around it they skip everything
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is one of the top of the only look at new stuff or whatever you know that you
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find ways around it
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they trim their follower counts right you know we think alike you know lots of
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people saying well nobody uses are so small but obviously in our circles in
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the sort of three travel and on the net it I think the usage is still pretty
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widespread I was looking at you know group just we did a little before he
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treated his stats on a website but he tweeted the actual like logline 200,000
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and 400,000 subscribers all nobody uses are as well apparently 400,000 people at
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least are using it because that's just from one site stats right so that's it
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yeah we're a tiny group of people right but you know in the circle of travel and
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computer nerds is big enough to sustain a technology because this point
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technologies we use that nobody else interested in a mean like how many
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people use Xcode and it still viable products because it has a purpose right
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so that the net remains to be seen
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you know like I mean we sustained winner for a long time just ourselves we're not
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discovered IRC it's not I don't think the like the popularity of the the
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technology its way past the threshold like it's viable right so the only
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question is you know the technology is viable there's more than enough people
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want to use it more than enough people to sustain a market for the usage of
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that is just a question of where do we go from here now that you know goal came
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along and pushed everybody out and then took its bomb I know right and and you
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know a lot of people are saying to google said that using has been
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declining so it's not worth keeping up well there's a whole lot of businesses
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that are not worth the Google paying attention to at their size but that a
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lot of smaller companies can make very good businesses addressing those needs
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you know there's a lot of things Google doesn't do i mean certainly you can look
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at some of their projects and they do everything is a major flop
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experimentation but you know if RSS is now too small for Google to care about
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that doesn't mean that is too small for anyone to care
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about it's not so much that I don't think that's too small too cool to care
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about like now as if like this I don't know how much i buy the thing i wud
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declining readership it's it's almost as if like they didn't never had a reason
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to get into it all anyway really like I think by the time they got into it was
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clear that it wasn't going to be the next winter
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you know like ours as it was what it was and it was never gonna like suddenly
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bust out in because it's kind of like it's kinda like using the day's news and
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stuff it ending using that was going to sweep the nation and run the world and
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just become like it was already used that was already you know sort of the
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thing that it was but you know I guess we might as well have that and them
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having a reasonable free products such a long period of time
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kind of doing intentionally to crash everybody else but the the net effect
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was good really good at keeping their servers up cool is really good at making
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their service fast and doing the things they were doing is actually kind of
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difficult and they're giving away for free so the company like NewsGator is
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something we're trying to make a business out of it couldn't do it was
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like yeah we're better than Google Reader but just barely and their free
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and so you know they just SAT there until everyone else has gone out of
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business in the city why are we even doing Google Reader I don't know what
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stop doing that I mean I think they kept going longer than they had to come like
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a relationship where you want to break up with somebody like just keep you know
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like four years I think anyone who is surprised by this I would be shocked
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because like I've been looking forward to for years and things like why are
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they still going every day we all knew the hammer was gonna fall years and
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years like even a blog post about a nightmare reading his blog postings
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angle yet Google Reader is not long for this world and yet here we are two years
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later and I'm just finally getting around axing it so I don't know anyone
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who's mad Google tracks and understand where that comes from other than just
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frustration I totally I totally see why they're getting rid of it and your post
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the bond market you put on your website just like this finally freezes all up to
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maybe do something interesting in the area that's also true but I think people
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are still bummed I was bomb because we know like alright
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that the other shoe finally dropped now we have to have this period of time
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where there's nothing healthy weight for something you know what I mean is
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already there is only a matter of a familiar for the do it together they
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make some clients marxist clients be posted on their blog like a very fast
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after very quickly after Google+ their thing that they've they are kinda
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preparing for this for a while and they built an API compatible clone of Google
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Reader for themselves that their clients will automatically start syncing with
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Google Reader shuts down and and is already like a number i mean just
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tonight on Twitter I thought about building one there's already tons of
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people saying OK announcer in this new project is gonna marry the Google API
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and you can self-hosted open source or whatever or somebody else can build a
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big platform on it I do think though it was really funny that feeling in their
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post they said okay so we thought it was gonna shut us down for a while so we
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built this thing we built on Google AppEngine but that's the thing about it
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like what do you know it's not that we're Google Reader did it so
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groundbreaking it's the fact that it was run by Google which meant that it was up
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and available in there and I'm sure people are going to say oh is down until
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recently the reason having someone else do this annoying stuff like that
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operation stuff running a server keeping up keeping efficient having it work at
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scale from many brazilians
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even RSS like oh the declining usership the number of people are getting Google
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Reader is huge compared to like you know you're some little companies ok well
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we're gonna have seven million people over tomorrow and pull stuff from it is
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that you're ok with that can you scale sure it's not easy and one of the
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biggest challenges of designing a service like that is that Google called
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the feeds and then the client just logged into Google and said hey what's
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so Google had to maintain this crawling infrastructure the entire internet right
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now so we're kind of unique position right is that better than you right but
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for anyone else to do it you have to build a crawling at the structure that
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has to crawl like millions and millions of feeds quickly and repeatedly
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new updates do you think that's an important part of the service them all
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yet it is absolutely great yeah because that's a that's a major thing that your
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app doesn't have to do if you're running RSS client that's a big deal and it also
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they normalize all the feeds into one particular Adam format so you only one
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partner I mean it's there's there's lots of reasons for clients to want to do it
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that way service against that so yeah I think any service Google Reader is going
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to have to provide at least the automatic content crawling and
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normalization of the field format now that they can leave out all the social
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stuff they can leave out flagging tagging starring all they can leave all
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that stuff out as far as I'm concerned but the basics of sinking a list of
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features ascribe to thinking what you have read and unread and providing that
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whole crawling back end so that the client doesn't have to do it I think any
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any replacement has to do those things and why the crying part that's just
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basically so the client doesn't have to open up ten million TCP connections to
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ten nine different servers and pull stuff from it exactly what we see this
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and we see this week podcast clients on on iOS there there is I think only one I
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think only pocket cast by shifty jelly they do server-side crawling of all the
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feeds similar to a career doesn't RSS I don't think any other major client does
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that please e-mail John if I'm wrong I will let you know that actually but like
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I use downcast my feet from my podcast client and every time you launch the app
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has to update it has to crawl whatever you know all 25 or whatever number feed
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subscribe to individually and that sucks and it's a big waste of bandwidth for
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things that don't implement not modified stuff like that it's very inefficient on
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like a thin client like phone we don't really want to have some massive on a
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desktop we're just playing in the background who cares
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rightists if you have some app in the back on its fine but an iOS that matters
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a lot when you launch the app you don't have to sit there for a minute and a
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half all qualities feeds you know Google Reader clients are awesome because
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they only have to sink to one thing they only have to get Google and Google back
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saying here's a list of new things instead of with RSS you might have way
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more subscriptions on the podcast client so what are you if you subscribe to like
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250 feeds and most of them are updated most of the time but there's a few that
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are that's way more efficient to do the Google Reader way where the service I
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cross everything than that required the clients across hundred fifty feeds every
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15 minutes that you launch them a transitional things like fast forward 20
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years is still a factor that we still have like an awesome teen core
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processors and R&R wristwatch communicative things and bandwidth is
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really high and we just as actually faster to call crawl hundred fifty
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different URLs in parallel than to ask one server 40 no cause think about think
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about what you have to do you have to if you so much more did it the radios on
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longer I mean that's it that's never gonna be a more efficient it's always
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gonna be better to go through the intermediate and I will be more
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efficient but maybe the desktop on the desktop is not as much of a factor
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because we're not worried about opening up opening up a TCP connection takes a
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long time so you don't have to open up one of them it's better than having to
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open up a hundred and fifty but the bandwidth concerns like assuming mobile
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bandwidth you know goes away and the CPU concerns of having all these threads
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going at once which is untenable on iOS device today maybe that isn't in the
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future I'm just wondering if it's like one of those things where I remember
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back when to do any sort of are assessing the server like we don't do
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that for the web we don't do all the mobile web surfing through a proxy
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unless you I guess my self and non-self does that everybody used to be in the
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bad old days the mobile web surfing had to go through a proxy cuz it had to like
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tear down the pages for you and all sorts of all things in the Amazon still
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doing it but we accept now the tradeoff is like a rather have Mobile Safari just
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go right to the website don't compress my images don't modify the mark up like
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a real web browser it connects the real way and we're just gonna bite the bullet
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and go with that it seems to me that that's gotta be eventually the future so
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we are still around
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that's got to be the future of this type of service long-term not not last long
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but also the RSS like the access path
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is different with RSS almost all of those requests that the polling client
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makes are gonna be returned back with nothing to you know i three of three or
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four whenever you know nothing new so for the client after check that over and
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over again is extremely wasteful so and one way you can solve this is with push
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up somehow and RSS cloud to address this push issue but pushes really complicated
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to implement all various ends of it the polling was just way similar sites we
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still have it but you know with RSS I think it makes a lot of sense because
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almost all of the polls that happened will result in nothing new this fifty
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minute interval then it makes sense to have all that inefficient polling
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happening somewhere else that can tolerate inefficiency is like a
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datacenter that's powered by AC power and on a battery that has a big fat
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connection to the Internet and is always running this app as opposed to it after
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launch and you have to look I S apt who knows how this will change in the future
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but at the moment
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iOS apps like RSS readers can't automatically check things in the
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background about 15 minutes they have to be running and so when you launch it has
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to lose all that state from something right then and there are so many reasons
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to have that be remote based and have you know have a Google Reader like setup
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where the service doing all the crawling in the client just send you one very
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lightweight request to the server which is already done most of the work and I
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think the thing that that maybe we're not considering is the difference it is
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at creation time and money guys kind of lightly touching the second ago but if I
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was about to write a pirate in RSS client tomorrow I wouldn't want to have
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to fiddle around with with trying to figure out all the different and varied
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responses I'm gonna get from all these different and varied web servers I want
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something that's going to be a facade in front of that that's going to make them
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nice and clean and so I can get the part of the app that i dont wanna do which is
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the behind the scenes boring getting the the RSS updates and I can get that out
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of the way as quickly as possible so I can do the cool stuff on the UI side now
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as it turns out I actually am a terrible UI developer but in principle if your
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gonna right now
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do it because you have something new and exciting to do and you're not going to
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want to bother with doing on the back end stuff you can do all the UI stuff in
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in like you were saying Marco having one place to get all that normalized and in
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a clean clean stayed is much better nazis you so much time went by before
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you compile when you're just writing the code it saves so much time and that I
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don't think many people have very much interest in doing that boring stuff they
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just want to do the fun you I study also there there's a practical aspect of lake
[TS]
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with with iOS apps in the App Store if there are some new weirdo feed that you
[TS]
00:15:55
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find that some weird format if it's a service I configuration of the parser
[TS]
00:15:59
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you can update immediately and all your clients have immediately you don't have
[TS]
00:16:03
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to recode the apple butter a preview and channeling they wanted you might be like
[TS]
00:16:11
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the idea that I and the idea of all all rss feeds funneling into a service which
[TS]
00:16:19
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includes a nap I see all the reasons for it but it just sits a seems like Amazon
[TS]
00:16:25
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Silk to me it seems like wow that was like it that's that it just smells like
[TS]
00:16:30
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that to me and it seems like it's just a bump in the road along our way to fully
[TS]
00:16:36
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decentralized thinking maybe maybe we need a new protocol that may be pulling
[TS]
00:16:39
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down entire RSS feed or expecting a three or four based on some time stamp
[TS]
00:16:42
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hopefully getting your time zone right and everything is not like me maybe
[TS]
00:16:46
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there's a better product may be tapped net or something that looks similar to
[TS]
00:16:49
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that where if you make it more efficient protocol and really decentralized it in
[TS]
00:16:54
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some way maybe it makes up for it but I mean you know the other aspect of things
[TS]
00:16:58
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not just that the content crying but the main reason the main way that I use
[TS]
00:17:04
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Google Reader I think at least a quarter of the people who are regular readers
[TS]
00:17:08
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use in this way as as a syncing service as in I read news as you know that's an
[TS]
00:17:14
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activity I do in some place and when I go someplace else a different computer
[TS]
00:17:18
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different device or whatever I wanted to know that I read that thing
[TS]
00:17:22
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other thing and that is really an entirely separate thing from irate my
[TS]
00:17:27
◼
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feeds normalize them tell me this updates and stuff like that because now
[TS]
00:17:30
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you're into like a state synchronization that has nothing to do with the fees as
[TS]
00:17:35
◼
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everything to do with you what did you read so far you know what did you
[TS]
00:17:38
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subscribe to what they do on the subscribe to and that state
[TS]
00:17:41
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synchronization is probably harder problem you know algorithmic
[TS]
00:17:47
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algorithmically least to find figure out what the hell the right thing is to do
[TS]
00:17:51
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that then the near operational problem of crying the entire web of RSS feeds
[TS]
00:17:57
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and normalizing them of writing a response like that and so those those
[TS]
00:18:00
◼
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two things that's quite a bit for any one party or multiple parties to bite
[TS]
00:18:06
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off because that's what people are looking for you you'd never see the Guru
[TS]
00:18:10
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web UI some people live in it but I never even look at that news wire and I
[TS]
00:18:13
◼
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used on various devices on various machines and I wanted to be in sync so I
[TS]
00:18:18
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want something to do that as well as like the normalization I don't see that
[TS]
00:18:22
◼
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that's going on it's more of a development concern so something doesn't
[TS]
00:18:26
◼
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normalizing doesn't aggravate and for example doesn't cash which you know the
[TS]
00:18:30
◼
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thing that drives everyone who authors and artists be crazy about careers you
[TS]
00:18:33
◼
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get a bomb item in their never forget another opportunity for someone coming
[TS]
00:18:38
◼
►
into this field to do it better hey give us a way to delete that crap out or
[TS]
00:18:41
◼
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maybe have smart caching that forgets it disappears but anyway those the sinking
[TS]
00:18:46
◼
►
aspect of it it is what I'm really looking for in some third party vendor
[TS]
00:18:50
◼
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to hop up and say hey we're going to provide a service for all your news
[TS]
00:18:54
◼
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reading applications to keep them on sink and will charge some small amount
[TS]
00:18:57
◼
►
of money in your subscribe to it or something like that yeah it snowed fever
[TS]
00:19:03
◼
►
is that right fever response to that is what we like self-hosted and what does
[TS]
00:19:08
◼
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it mean but the problem is like when you ask people to sell host I can I know and
[TS]
00:19:14
◼
►
technical and knowledge but I don't know I agree some posting as that will always
[TS]
00:19:21
◼
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accept your audience and requiring that I mean if it's a good way to learn
[TS]
00:19:28
◼
►
something you don't know about all the technologies involved self hosting is a
[TS]
00:19:30
◼
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good learning experience for with an audience of one so you're not like you
[TS]
00:19:33
◼
►
know destroying some
[TS]
00:19:34
◼
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business you know learning about suicide development but it's the you know that's
[TS]
00:19:39
◼
►
that's hosting is not going to explode now that Google Reader is gone but we
[TS]
00:19:43
◼
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all wanted something to do with Google Reader did for us because you know when
[TS]
00:19:46
◼
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I read something that it's red and everything is fast and all my clients
[TS]
00:19:50
◼
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work with it and you know and some people use the web interface for them
[TS]
00:19:53
◼
►
they're looking for an equivalent or better web interface I i think i I think
[TS]
00:20:01
◼
►
the web interface hopefully is is on its way out for RSS because I mean certainly
[TS]
00:20:06
◼
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RSS is being pushed pretty heavily it always was a very eccentric technology
[TS]
00:20:10
◼
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and and while there are non geeks user I'm sure there are a heck of a lot more
[TS]
00:20:15
◼
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geeks who do and so if RSS like if if the web reader experience never fully
[TS]
00:20:24
◼
►
gets replaced I think that's fine where I think we're going to see you know I
[TS]
00:20:30
◼
►
think we're gonna see to these come out of us first we gonna see you know
[TS]
00:20:35
◼
►
obviously we're going to see that the the backend sinking platform will be
[TS]
00:20:38
◼
►
replaced by a million different people doing doing basically doing the same
[TS]
00:20:41
◼
►
thing which is just marrying the Google Reader API with some kind of hosted or
[TS]
00:20:46
◼
►
open source thing that anybody can get or use and at school and we need that
[TS]
00:20:50
◼
►
would be kind of a shame because everything i've heard from people who
[TS]
00:20:54
◼
►
develop against the career API I've makes it doesn't help that it was
[TS]
00:20:57
◼
►
undocumented unsupported breath like if you had if you had to pick an API to
[TS]
00:21:00
◼
►
make it easy for app developers to implement same thing maybe the Google
[TS]
00:21:03
◼
►
reedy API is not ideal I understand how to do it
[TS]
00:21:06
◼
►
compatibility with all the people who are talking to Google Reader but if I
[TS]
00:21:11
◼
►
was doing one of the projects I would be like ok do the Google Reader API
[TS]
00:21:14
◼
►
mirroring to get us off the ground but let's plan like a much better ABI the
[TS]
00:21:19
◼
►
makes it even easier for developers to you know and I can that be like version
[TS]
00:21:23
◼
►
too often a different places like sure you know yeah I'm actually I'm sure that
[TS]
00:21:28
◼
►
will happen with almost all of these where they will make they will start out
[TS]
00:21:31
◼
►
with a pair of bootstrap it and then they'll have their own light clean nice
[TS]
00:21:35
◼
►
new API but the Google Reader API is probably gonna be the standard if there
[TS]
00:21:41
◼
►
is one like you know right now it was really easy to make an RSS happen last
[TS]
00:21:45
◼
►
year's because all you had
[TS]
00:21:47
◼
►
to do was give people Google Reader username password fields online login
[TS]
00:21:51
◼
►
that was it now I think we're gonna basically see a third field being added
[TS]
00:21:56
◼
►
to that which is like hostname
[TS]
00:21:59
◼
►
like whatever whatever service you are using the API type in the hostname here
[TS]
00:22:03
◼
►
and then type in your password for any thoughts you boxes I think that's that's
[TS]
00:22:09
◼
►
the easiest way forward for the clients and so if that is the outcome if that's
[TS]
00:22:14
◼
►
what you know assume assume we have like multiple multiple services that spring
[TS]
00:22:20
◼
►
up there gonna be like this that are going to replace Google Reader and get
[TS]
00:22:22
◼
►
some popularity if that's the case none of them will have the leverage to make a
[TS]
00:22:27
◼
►
new API Google Reader likely be stuck with it
[TS]
00:22:33
◼
►
just look at the declines have already written all the code for it you know why
[TS]
00:22:39
◼
►
why would I rewrite my client new fancy but I've already got my client working
[TS]
00:22:43
◼
►
with red is working with it for five years now whatever you know why would I
[TS]
00:22:48
◼
►
change of our new API's cleaner for new development you get those guys on board
[TS]
00:22:52
◼
►
but like thats I think that would be a shame because like I said it's not like
[TS]
00:22:55
◼
►
people saying Google Reader is the most awesome API for sinking and you know
[TS]
00:22:59
◼
►
keeping track of stuff maybe not so awesome as a funny side borrow one of
[TS]
00:23:03
◼
►
the weird little projects I did a tumblr was back back before before Twitter
[TS]
00:23:10
◼
►
bought Tweetie from Arbor 21 its own app and everyone loved it there is one of
[TS]
00:23:15
◼
►
the very advanced settings fields was API hostname and you could type in any
[TS]
00:23:21
◼
►
host name there and it would it would use that as the basis of all the Twitter
[TS]
00:23:24
◼
►
API URLs so I wrote the Twitter API for tumblr enough of it so that you can
[TS]
00:23:33
◼
►
browse tumblr into et just using this field to say like forever and it was it
[TS]
00:23:40
◼
►
was it was interesting was it again like him like you got this whole app kind of
[TS]
00:23:44
◼
►
for free by just making burgers mirroring enough of Twitter's API to
[TS]
00:23:48
◼
►
make this work that's why that's why I'm saying like that RSS like not that it's
[TS]
00:23:54
◼
►
inadequate but that
[TS]
00:23:56
◼
►
it's just a piece of the puzzle be like our RSS RSS and Atom our standards for
[TS]
00:24:02
◼
►
do representation but they're they're not they don't help you with the art so
[TS]
00:24:06
◼
►
what about you might have an API that is efficient and can give you
[TS]
00:24:10
◼
►
synchronization information like that would have to be a layer on top of it
[TS]
00:24:12
◼
►
and then that larry is that ok with that
[TS]
00:24:15
◼
►
defacto that is the Google Reader API because that's the most climax ran
[TS]
00:24:19
◼
►
against it and it's you know is the only player in town and it was free in like
[TS]
00:24:22
◼
►
an hour now that's our middle layer and you know it would be nicer if there was
[TS]
00:24:27
◼
►
a similarly open standard like RSS or Atom to fill that role that wasn't just
[TS]
00:24:32
◼
►
like the the leftover droppings of a company that was once vaguely interested
[TS]
00:24:36
◼
►
in the business lost interest
[TS]
00:24:38
◼
►
yeah and and it's also worth speculating on why did this little bit more I just
[TS]
00:24:44
◼
►
thought of a new theory now I think the real reason they shut it down is because
[TS]
00:24:51
◼
►
I've heard from various people over the last couple of months as we start to see
[TS]
00:24:56
◼
►
problems I've heard that the staff assigned to work on Google Reader was
[TS]
00:25:01
◼
►
basically between 0 and three people do you believe in how you measure so I've
[TS]
00:25:08
◼
►
heard it had basically nobody working on it and so member it had it had a pretty
[TS]
00:25:13
◼
►
bad outings like a week or two ago something like that I'm guessing what
[TS]
00:25:19
◼
►
happened was it was working fine for a long time and then things started to
[TS]
00:25:24
◼
►
break and when things started to break a few weeks ago whenever that was nobody
[TS]
00:25:30
◼
►
had a fix it code for years and so that's probably what made you decide you
[TS]
00:25:35
◼
►
know what this is just easier to kill them to fix because it's not giving us
[TS]
00:25:40
◼
►
enough value might as well just kill it rather than maintaining the real reason
[TS]
00:25:45
◼
►
but it's worth considering one conspiracy I think like crazy reason is
[TS]
00:25:50
◼
►
when you're reading RSS you're not going to people's websites and seeing
[TS]
00:25:54
◼
►
ads as I mean things they don't like about from a business perspective
[TS]
00:26:00
◼
►
business reason that you can think to get rid of this thing is like look if
[TS]
00:26:04
◼
►
only they know these numbers but how many people are using it as an API that
[TS]
00:26:09
◼
►
they never see like how many people using apps like reader and that is why
[TS]
00:26:12
◼
►
we never and never see a single one of our ads because all they like it's just
[TS]
00:26:15
◼
►
an API back at all we're doing is providing computing horsepower and
[TS]
00:26:18
◼
►
uptime for them for 30 benefit and never Sierra the people on the web interface
[TS]
00:26:23
◼
►
they can show them as they can you know harvest their interests and you know
[TS]
00:26:27
◼
►
it's just like Gmail like if everybody use the web interface and if that
[TS]
00:26:32
◼
►
everybody was a much larger number than it currently is it would still be around
[TS]
00:26:35
◼
►
but from a business perspective i think im very large number of people don't use
[TS]
00:26:42
◼
►
the web interface and the total sum of all Google Reader uses so much more than
[TS]
00:26:46
◼
►
like this gmail user base or whatever that it just doesn't make any sense to
[TS]
00:26:49
◼
►
keep it right and to that end if you're going to replace Google Reader why would
[TS]
00:26:55
◼
►
you get into that business of the whole point of the businesses was t it is to
[TS]
00:26:59
◼
►
use third-party clients and I guess this comes back tapped out an ad in the ideas
[TS]
00:27:03
◼
►
well you have super nerds that are affluent enough that they'll be able to
[TS]
00:27:06
◼
►
spare few bucks a month to pay for it or node 50 bucks a year whatever the number
[TS]
00:27:10
◼
►
maybe but I wouldn't want to get into that business that seems to get back to
[TS]
00:27:16
◼
►
grouper with this 400,000 RSS subscribers that's how he makes money
[TS]
00:27:19
◼
►
from a site you nobody has one of the ways he he sells RSS sponsorships and
[TS]
00:27:24
◼
►
you get to your sponsoring the RSS feed which thing that the customers mornin
[TS]
00:27:29
◼
►
I'm pretty sure the answer to both of those are in the RSS feed as well right
[TS]
00:27:32
◼
►
so if you if you control the RSS feeds you can certain tannen to RSS feeds all
[TS]
00:27:37
◼
►
the people there are maybe that maybe that model does not work and people hate
[TS]
00:27:41
◼
►
it but you know the apt 9 a.m. I'll certainly more direct passed a little
[TS]
00:27:44
◼
►
bit and you get to use their synchronization service and now wherever
[TS]
00:27:47
◼
►
you read you know like that could be that service I don't think it's quite
[TS]
00:27:52
◼
►
designer for this thing exactly about you know that's the question of like
[TS]
00:27:57
◼
►
okay so Google was subsidizing a result profitable business like an order search
[TS]
00:28:00
◼
►
revenue like that they were doing is more or less out of the goodness of
[TS]
00:28:03
◼
►
their own heart
[TS]
00:28:05
◼
►
higher-level not quite i mean they they want to have access to all the world's
[TS]
00:28:09
◼
►
information and and this and a lot of information flows through RSS 2.0 feed
[TS]
00:28:14
◼
►
burner 47 fever is more of an ad by but you know I I think it made sense why
[TS]
00:28:19
◼
►
they started this in the first place
[TS]
00:28:21
◼
►
didn't even when they bought feel very though it's like i don't think anyone to
[TS]
00:28:25
◼
►
Google had any any notion that RSS was going to grow tremendously from the
[TS]
00:28:32
◼
►
point where they bought it and it hasn't and the point where they bought it
[TS]
00:28:36
◼
►
already wasn't like everything was it was big among nerds but it was never
[TS]
00:28:40
◼
►
like this the growth curve was never never never any illusions it was gonna
[TS]
00:28:43
◼
►
take off like Facebook or Twitter was no hockey stick curb at the time that they
[TS]
00:28:47
◼
►
bought into it maybe they wanted to have it just because like there's no sense in
[TS]
00:28:51
◼
►
other people in other people having this thing and people spending time elsewhere
[TS]
00:28:55
◼
►
and maybe like the long-term evil plan is alright we gotta get this because it
[TS]
00:28:59
◼
►
is a thing is not a big thing is not gonna grow but we need to get it so we
[TS]
00:29:03
◼
►
can just kind of quietly put it to sleep which is you know the rap on Google when
[TS]
00:29:08
◼
►
they buy companies you know John Cooper you know I don't name names of the
[TS]
00:29:12
◼
►
companies that Google is bought that it kind of like faded away you never really
[TS]
00:29:17
◼
►
hear about them again or the you know or are they just don't improve rapidly or
[TS]
00:29:22
◼
►
they just you know it's like if it's on Google's umbrella they have the option
[TS]
00:29:26
◼
►
to to let it go live up on a farm upstate whenever they feel like it right
[TS]
00:29:30
◼
►
i think i mean first of all there's a big problem here but it's kind of a mean
[TS]
00:29:37
◼
►
this this has a lot of parallels to win more controversial things but you know
[TS]
00:29:41
◼
►
what they did really and I don't think they I don't think they plan to this but
[TS]
00:29:46
◼
►
what happened was a Google Reader came out and destroyed a very big market of
[TS]
00:29:52
◼
►
desktop RSS readers and web Google just came in and destroyed it was free and it
[TS]
00:29:57
◼
►
synced and none of the things did at the time and they destroyed and they held on
[TS]
00:30:02
◼
►
to that market for eight years and now they're killing it now but now you know
[TS]
00:30:09
◼
►
I think one has to wonder how did they destroy the market for the desktop app
[TS]
00:30:14
◼
►
apps like how do they make it so it's no longer viable to sell the absolute they
[TS]
00:30:17
◼
►
definitely destroy the services like NewsGator newsletter is trying to tell
[TS]
00:30:22
◼
►
synchronization services but a desktop out i mean what they did to the desktop
[TS]
00:30:25
◼
►
apps on iOS apps even more insidious didn't destroy them they just made it so
[TS]
00:30:29
◼
►
that you know they were the only game in town for a thing that those people
[TS]
00:30:32
◼
►
needed but didn't wanna write well as writing you know and so now all the
[TS]
00:30:36
◼
►
clients not reader uses Google Reader newswire uses Google Reader and all this
[TS]
00:30:40
◼
►
you know all these things use Google Reader is this the only game in town and
[TS]
00:30:43
◼
►
now they're hooked onto the strain the Google is not always kind of mad at
[TS]
00:30:47
◼
►
anybody so it wasn't the sync engine that killed the stock lines it was the
[TS]
00:30:51
◼
►
web interface it was it was making it making RSS reading free so you think
[TS]
00:30:56
◼
►
that took people away people stop buying a newswire as they could just go to the
[TS]
00:31:00
◼
►
Google Reader website absolutely definitely I disagree I completed not
[TS]
00:31:04
◼
►
people but I will tell you I can guarantee you there was another gonna
[TS]
00:31:10
◼
►
guess like who would we go to to get that information like we could google
[TS]
00:31:13
◼
►
presumably knows how many people use 32 over the lifetime they could show that
[TS]
00:31:17
◼
►
growth sure I guess brent controls the growth curve like sales newswire it with
[TS]
00:31:24
◼
►
his deal with the NewsGator but I can tell you i mean just haven't lived
[TS]
00:31:28
◼
►
through that anecdotally I saw that happen I saw I saw many artists clients
[TS]
00:31:33
◼
►
just give up and die and the few that were left with a ones integrated Google
[TS]
00:31:38
◼
►
Reader like you had I gave a resurgence yeah it wasn't like Google reader's
[TS]
00:31:44
◼
►
website went away and in fact I believe it worked reasonably well on mobile from
[TS]
00:31:48
◼
►
from as early as anything more than a resurgence in suddenly like things like
[TS]
00:31:55
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reader what a creature of violence like they wouldn't have it was not newswire
[TS]
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was sitting there as the once once and possibly not future king of desktop
[TS]
00:32:05
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reader market and people were not clamoring to rear applications but it is
[TS]
00:32:08
◼
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the iPhone launch now everyone wants to write a news reader applications across
[TS]
00:32:11
◼
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all talking to you the reader you some idea of you readers dominance right now
[TS]
00:32:17
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I I put my feed stats and
[TS]
00:32:20
◼
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ninety percent of subscribers to my feed are subscribed via Google Reader sank
[TS]
00:32:28
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like that's how big this is ninety percent of my my subscribers and then
[TS]
00:32:31
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like there's like I have a hundred web interface right no they don't they don't
[TS]
00:32:36
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distinguish but you know that give you some idea like if this service shuts
[TS]
00:32:40
◼
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down not only is it is leaving a gaping hole in the in the RSS Inc business but
[TS]
00:32:48
◼
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this could have a massive impact on the readership of websites like I can also
[TS]
00:32:56
◼
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boost their ad impressions eventually have to go to the website maybe but like
[TS]
00:33:00
◼
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one of the reasons are so great is because it allows you to very easily
[TS]
00:33:06
◼
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follow sites that don't update frequently enough you a check every day
[TS]
00:33:10
◼
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so before our staff came out if you had a blog posted once a month
[TS]
00:33:16
◼
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nobody would read it and post every day so that people would go to your site
[TS]
00:33:22
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everyday and check for new stuff and a lot of people as someone who has a
[TS]
00:33:26
◼
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website that posts not once a month of people still generally yes but there's a
[TS]
00:33:35
◼
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great power of RSS is allowing you enabling you to follow a whole bunch of
[TS]
00:33:41
◼
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sites that update infrequently and be and doing that in a manageable way so
[TS]
00:33:47
◼
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because it's so easy to read them then those who had written frequently they
[TS]
00:33:53
◼
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have better audiences they have more reach their more influential even if
[TS]
00:33:56
◼
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they don't write every day and you can get some of that value now from Twitter
[TS]
00:34:00
◼
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Facebook and all these other crappy services please in OKC but there's still
[TS]
00:34:06
◼
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so much of that happening on RSS as you can tell by you know stats from me and
[TS]
00:34:11
◼
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group or anybody else a ton of that activity as an RSS so
[TS]
00:34:17
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I think it could be really disruptive come July when the shutdown and sites
[TS]
00:34:24
◼
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like mine and groupers and other people who have like heavy RSS readership in
[TS]
00:34:30
◼
►
the geeky spaces sites like this we could see major shifts in in either
[TS]
00:34:36
◼
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direction huh sure we could see major shifts and how people read our sites and
[TS]
00:34:42
◼
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you'll be able to tell the month leading up I guess I think my Google reader
[TS]
00:34:45
◼
►
supports a little subscriber numbers in long lines and everything like if those
[TS]
00:34:48
◼
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people disperse I don't know if all the other things they dispersed to identify
[TS]
00:34:52
◼
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themselves in such a nice convenient way so it may be difficult to like counting
[TS]
00:34:58
◼
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RSS subscribers is different than counting all you can eat there is like
[TS]
00:35:02
◼
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someone decided this was more than enough to put in their feet and when I
[TS]
00:35:06
◼
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make something new on the site
[TS]
00:35:08
◼
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their little feet thing becomes bold presuming they even look at their little
[TS]
00:35:12
◼
►
feet thing which is not you know like this four hundred thousand Google Reader
[TS]
00:35:17
◼
►
subscribers you know how many of them actually going to look at that feed in
[TS]
00:35:20
◼
►
maybe people have stopped using google reader on but Google Reader will keep
[TS]
00:35:24
◼
►
hitting their site right and counting them as a you know it's part of their
[TS]
00:35:27
◼
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subscription I'm not sure I'd like I'm not sure how long they will do that for
[TS]
00:35:31
◼
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him whether it's mothers do indefinitely so like maybe the numbers are any from
[TS]
00:35:35
◼
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reading your site anymore or whether they like have some kind of timeout
[TS]
00:35:38
◼
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period where they stopped counting you after a while of not looking at reader
[TS]
00:35:41
◼
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I'm not really sure I like Twitter followers I mean how many human beings
[TS]
00:35:44
◼
►
who ever heard used within the last year and how many people are just people who
[TS]
00:35:47
◼
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followed you and they joined Twitter for three days three years ago and you know
[TS]
00:35:51
◼
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are not there anymore
[TS]
00:35:54
◼
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web stats in viewership things are always kind of food do but Google Reader
[TS]
00:35:58
◼
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at least gave some sort of unification to the budu in like you know you love it
[TS]
00:36:02
◼
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summarizes it for you it's measured the same way as everybody's using it ninety
[TS]
00:36:06
◼
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percent of your subscribers anyway so now we that that's going to become much
[TS]
00:36:10
◼
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fuzzier even even if every single one of those people who was actually rehearse I
[TS]
00:36:13
◼
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continues to how you to be able to detect them and track them and confirmed
[TS]
00:36:18
◼
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yourself that's the case is probably going to be difficult so you're
[TS]
00:36:22
◼
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begrudging
[TS]
00:36:24
◼
►
the disappearance of Google the all seen eye because it doesn't like to see
[TS]
00:36:28
◼
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everything grudging I'm just as strange scenario is strange situation we found
[TS]
00:36:34
◼
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ourselves I mean this is what happens when it when a company you know I mean
[TS]
00:36:37
◼
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microsoft word to your company with some profitable business can use that profit
[TS]
00:36:41
◼
►
to subsidize other businesses that its speculating into MIT these may or may
[TS]
00:36:46
◼
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not be things that we want to get into you know and I guess I think we will
[TS]
00:36:49
◼
►
never had any illusions RSS was going to do a hockey stick but it's like my house
[TS]
00:36:54
◼
►
worth worth keeping our eye on and we should buy everything up that has
[TS]
00:36:59
◼
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anything to do with it so that we can some said it was Marcus david Turner
[TS]
00:37:03
◼
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when we feel like it ended like now is the time of your life and you know it
[TS]
00:37:08
◼
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was easy because they are you had all that web crawling infrastructure in
[TS]
00:37:11
◼
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place that they could use so it was easier for them to do it then it would
[TS]
00:37:15
◼
►
be for anyone else to do it or not not so much like because that's that's where
[TS]
00:37:19
◼
►
the that's their muscle that's you know their companies built on we can put up
[TS]
00:37:22
◼
►
services on the internet that scale to any number of people including the
[TS]
00:37:27
◼
►
entire internet like our storage does and our whole business is built around
[TS]
00:37:30
◼
►
like we have we all section the company just works on infrastructure constantly
[TS]
00:37:35
◼
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improving it and sort of it helps every service that we do that's why whenever
[TS]
00:37:38
◼
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the bar start to like okay I don't care what you're doing before it's time to
[TS]
00:37:42
◼
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get things we know what they were doing and even though our way seems crazy to
[TS]
00:37:46
◼
►
you let me tell you that you should rewrite travelgate indiscretion top of
[TS]
00:37:50
◼
►
our infrastructure which will delay your business for years and by the time
[TS]
00:37:53
◼
►
you're done maybe no monster product anymore but we're not gonna let you keep
[TS]
00:37:57
◼
►
running your crazy PHP Ruby thing here if we can help it because you really
[TS]
00:38:00
◼
►
need to get with the program and because our program is pretty damn good whereas
[TS]
00:38:05
◼
►
other random companies you know you're starting from scratch or even if you're
[TS]
00:38:09
◼
►
some other big companies like Microsoft is trying to get some days and expertise
[TS]
00:38:12
◼
►
and an apple and like they just none of those companies dedicated maybe Amazon
[TS]
00:38:17
◼
►
is the only other one that dedicates proportional to the same amount of
[TS]
00:38:21
◼
►
resources about we need to get our crap together service I because it's an
[TS]
00:38:24
◼
►
essential part of our business yeah I know we sell things but you know where
[TS]
00:38:27
◼
►
these me to come from well as you want to sell things better and hey that's a
[TS]
00:38:32
◼
►
marketable service yesterday and all those things and i think is the only
[TS]
00:38:36
◼
►
competitor who has the kind of expertise in scale and I think they're still much
[TS]
00:38:42
◼
►
more sort of slapped together evolved over a long period of time under
[TS]
00:38:46
◼
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tremendous pressure with a crazy man with a weapon at their back versus sort
[TS]
00:38:52
◼
►
of Google's philosophical PHD's algorithmic strategy for indexing the
[TS]
00:38:57
◼
►
entire web anyway I don't know I mean that that kind of blew a lot of other
[TS]
00:39:06
◼
►
stuff that was being talked about me I guess we have a new pope and we now have
[TS]
00:39:10
◼
►
one less hard cast network but otherwise I don't know what's happening in the
[TS]
00:39:16
◼
►
world of technology market don't talk about South by Southwest come on my god
[TS]
00:39:21
◼
►
veteran of that are a number of tons of useful and insightful things to say I'm
[TS]
00:39:27
◼
►
so happy I didn't go this year before this or I think the year before that
[TS]
00:39:30
◼
►
that's a bold face lie cuz you're missing out on Salt Lake man I surprise
[TS]
00:39:37
◼
►
how are in the whole conference thing of it what it what a mess that is like it
[TS]
00:39:42
◼
►
first of all what that's worth talking briefly i think is Google i/o tickets
[TS]
00:39:49
◼
►
went on sale this morning and as usual sold out very very quickly and there are
[TS]
00:39:55
◼
►
lots of like I saw our friendship own complaining about duplicate transaction
[TS]
00:39:59
◼
►
logs that it did not sell out gracefully but it did so I quickly and and you know
[TS]
00:40:06
◼
►
we see with that we see with WBC selling out not that quickly but at least still
[TS]
00:40:12
◼
►
very quickly every year and there's an issue in question what do you really do
[TS]
00:40:18
◼
►
about that like what what can you do about that problem and because you don't
[TS]
00:40:22
◼
►
have any state tickets are gonna they're gonna come on sale and we don't know you
[TS]
00:40:26
◼
►
know it could be anytime between now and late May that they will probably make
[TS]
00:40:30
◼
►
tickets available for the immediacy of this year and we don't know and probably
[TS]
00:40:34
◼
►
gonna sell out within a half hour 45 minutes
[TS]
00:40:39
◼
►
Apple has tried different things you know different polarizations of like to
[TS]
00:40:45
◼
►
have these Tech Talks around around the country will become a mini WDC
[TS]
00:40:50
◼
►
country and you can get a ticket to those if you haven't gone to WTC
[TS]
00:40:54
◼
►
recently so this kind of a priority thing where if you get a lot out of one
[TS]
00:40:57
◼
►
you can go to the other but you know they they still have this problem of
[TS]
00:41:03
◼
►
there's just way more demand than there is supply of tickets and in you know
[TS]
00:41:08
◼
►
they can do the typical economic thing of just raised the price really high
[TS]
00:41:11
◼
►
because that would kind of make them look like dicks and that they would get
[TS]
00:41:16
◼
►
a lot of flak for that it would be worth it and like Google is making the problem
[TS]
00:41:21
◼
►
worse because Google i/o tickets it's becoming a pattern that Google gives
[TS]
00:41:26
◼
►
everyone free hardware at their devices that's usually worth about as much as
[TS]
00:41:32
◼
►
the ticket price looks like 900 bucks so like a lot of the people buying as
[TS]
00:41:38
◼
►
Google tickets are probably just wanting the free hardware and not really giving
[TS]
00:41:41
◼
►
a crap about the conference and so that's kinda like that i think is a
[TS]
00:41:46
◼
►
really bad thing for group for Google to be doing what they should probably stop
[TS]
00:41:49
◼
►
to think what what do you think Apple could do to reduce demand for WC or to
[TS]
00:41:57
◼
►
make it to make itself out less quickly or do you think the evening to solve
[TS]
00:42:02
◼
►
this problem is one thing they could do that like you talk about raising the
[TS]
00:42:06
◼
►
prices being seen as a dick move well this is also kind of a dick move but
[TS]
00:42:10
◼
►
it's one with economic precedent and its letter last as they can just do it
[TS]
00:42:14
◼
►
airlines doing over book and the reason I think this will work out with them is
[TS]
00:42:18
◼
►
that except for the keynote which I maybe maybe including keynote like you
[TS]
00:42:24
◼
►
see how the herd thins out as head start to come into effect and it's been far
[TS]
00:42:29
◼
►
even just like late in the day when people are just like going on fumes and
[TS]
00:42:33
◼
►
they just they just cant you know going in more I think you could probably over
[TS]
00:42:39
◼
►
any maybe this fire codes and stuff like that or whatever but that they're
[TS]
00:42:42
◼
►
limiting them but I think you could over book it and with the exception of a few
[TS]
00:42:45
◼
►
choke points
[TS]
00:42:47
◼
►
continue to be OK because really with the exception of like I know this
[TS]
00:42:52
◼
►
because I'm I'm there in every session like a crazy person you know
[TS]
00:42:57
◼
►
most people are not really things out it during certain points and so I feel like
[TS]
00:43:02
◼
►
they hit that's one way to get around the city somewhere tickets you know so
[TS]
00:43:05
◼
►
well as many tickets as he even if you think it's gonna be crazy that I don't
[TS]
00:43:09
◼
►
want to be like the classroom sizes are gonna be to join whenever I think it
[TS]
00:43:13
◼
►
will still work out because those rooms are not a capacity in the middle of the
[TS]
00:43:16
◼
►
week and some boring session as you know I don't know why I think you could
[TS]
00:43:20
◼
►
probably get maybe 20% more tickets sold that way not even more that somethin but
[TS]
00:43:26
◼
►
because I'm not saying this is gonna be a doubling in size is just over the
[TS]
00:43:30
◼
►
problem is that the the the popular or mainstream sessions really are filled up
[TS]
00:43:37
◼
►
to capacity and a lot of time and they do not have to wait on line for you know
[TS]
00:43:42
◼
►
twenty minutes or a half hour before the session starts and you get in there and
[TS]
00:43:46
◼
►
you can't even sit down and there's like only standing room of people backing up
[TS]
00:43:49
◼
►
in the back like 10 sessions like that and they duplicate them they're they're
[TS]
00:43:54
◼
►
addressing that was like the other one son on one day and then once I get two
[TS]
00:43:58
◼
►
days later whatever like this is all in service of not doing the things out by
[TS]
00:44:02
◼
►
Southwest Division I always keep going to bigger bigger venues like it that way
[TS]
00:44:06
◼
►
across the entire city right so you know you can't are just going to like even
[TS]
00:44:11
◼
►
bigger Convention Center in a different city and just get bigger and bigger but
[TS]
00:44:14
◼
►
can you can you get something out of the can you do something to improve things
[TS]
00:44:18
◼
►
keeping the same conference center and everything I think you can get a little
[TS]
00:44:22
◼
►
bit more about our booking and wonder you know this year maybe just some
[TS]
00:44:27
◼
►
paying attention but I don't think so I think this is actually happening this
[TS]
00:44:31
◼
►
year it seems like Apple pessimism is at an all-time high of just the company's
[TS]
00:44:37
◼
►
prospects that the effect of competition but rather the people who go to WWE see
[TS]
00:44:42
◼
►
right now
[TS]
00:44:44
◼
►
matter people who are selling popular apps in the App Store me da is probably
[TS]
00:44:48
◼
►
still pretty darn bullish about iOS in terms of money to make money in terms of
[TS]
00:44:52
◼
►
you know how much money do we put into this game and how much do we get out
[TS]
00:44:55
◼
►
keep making the games he say that but it's funny I would agree with you Marco
[TS]
00:44:59
◼
►
that I've had regular people who are not total dweeb like us come to me and say
[TS]
00:45:04
◼
►
from getting iPhone again when I'm up for a new phone cuz haven't done
[TS]
00:45:08
◼
►
anything new in awhile yeah you know if your nerd you can say well what we
[TS]
00:45:13
◼
►
haven't done anything new but to a regular person I mean springboard looks
[TS]
00:45:16
◼
►
the same as always looked most of these apps mostly Liu Rui button is a UIButton
[TS]
00:45:21
◼
►
ey labels label all these things look the same table visa tableview granted
[TS]
00:45:25
◼
►
you have collection views now and haven't seen them use that much come to
[TS]
00:45:28
◼
►
think of it but it doesn't look flashy anymore and maybe Iowa 71 could do I i
[TS]
00:45:36
◼
►
dont know I completely agree I'm not saying is I think like you I wouldn't do
[TS]
00:45:41
◼
►
it the same be able to be like still like a rectangle the screen like us are
[TS]
00:45:45
◼
►
hovering above the desk by two inches like well there's there's there's
[TS]
00:45:50
◼
►
there's like the the people who write for The Verge who knows they're never
[TS]
00:45:54
◼
►
gonna be happy with whatever Apple does that go or actually the writers are good
[TS]
00:45:59
◼
►
the commenters on the verge are never going to be happy with whatever Apple
[TS]
00:46:04
◼
►
does its new because they're gonna complain no its not like Android
[TS]
00:46:07
◼
►
incentive enough in that segment they would they can't satisfy but like Casey
[TS]
00:46:12
◼
►
I have regular people asking me all the time or talking all the time about about
[TS]
00:46:18
◼
►
comments that make it sound like all this Apple skepticism in the media
[TS]
00:46:24
◼
►
actually reflects what they are thinking like it there is no question that
[TS]
00:46:28
◼
►
Apple's being significantly and severely affected by the attention in the media
[TS]
00:46:35
◼
►
that it gets and negatively I mean really I have regular people sit like
[TS]
00:46:41
◼
►
even a week ago I had somebody asked me how I think my getting an iPhone but I
[TS]
00:46:46
◼
►
heard the iPhone 5s is coming out next month so in a way like I here and every
[TS]
00:46:50
◼
►
day of course every iPhone but like what you hear like you know they didn't
[TS]
00:46:55
◼
►
change that much Michael have you seen the iPhone 5 believe me it's a big
[TS]
00:47:00
◼
►
difference the people I even giving it a shot because they're they're hearing in
[TS]
00:47:04
◼
►
the media and on the news on the website and everything they're hearing all the
[TS]
00:47:07
◼
►
stuff about Apple being doomed and not innovating enough I hear regular people
[TS]
00:47:11
◼
►
have asked me about Samsung for the first time ever in the last six months
[TS]
00:47:14
◼
►
I've never heard anybody else with Samsung in the last six months I'm now
[TS]
00:47:17
◼
►
hearing
[TS]
00:47:18
◼
►
and I think Apple's doing greed but the mainstream culture and the mainstream
[TS]
00:47:26
◼
►
and rhetoric around Apple is now that they're suffering and that's really
[TS]
00:47:30
◼
►
damaging them no question so I think there's only two things they could do to
[TS]
00:47:35
◼
►
to get the regular people ignoring the echo chamber people who don't even know
[TS]
00:47:40
◼
►
what the verges to get those people who still might come up there and change too
[TS]
00:47:45
◼
►
much what can you do to bring them home cuz I think like outside outside of the
[TS]
00:47:50
◼
►
tech nerd circles like there definitely is a medium that perception everything
[TS]
00:47:54
◼
►
better but like it when someone who doesn't even remember that Apple makes
[TS]
00:47:58
◼
►
the iPhone or just kind of big windows with the iPhone does when they get the
[TS]
00:48:00
◼
►
news story like I'm their local news or whatever that there are some problems
[TS]
00:48:04
◼
►
that's when I start to get this bad feelings what can you do to bring those
[TS]
00:48:06
◼
►
people out you can't do with new OS overall because no matter how crazy you
[TS]
00:48:11
◼
►
change springboard about how weird you make things look those people are never
[TS]
00:48:15
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going to know that's not how the phone always looked like they don't have
[TS]
00:48:18
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compared to that does not impress them that nothing you can get them he thereby
[TS]
00:48:22
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making a new product that gets people excited about Apple again
[TS]
00:48:28
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insert whatever product you on your television watched her board you know
[TS]
00:48:32
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self-driving car space ship anything like that automatically those people
[TS]
00:48:38
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like Apple's back at some crazy new thing blah blah blah suddenly the iPhone
[TS]
00:48:42
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seems viable again I wouldn't bank on that happening in the capital banking on
[TS]
00:48:46
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that happening to get themselves in the second thing I think what actually work
[TS]
00:48:50
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and they probably are going to be doing is just make it a big screen damage is
[TS]
00:48:56
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damage that sounds internet done that is has a big screen but done that like
[TS]
00:49:00
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before you aren't excited about it but now you now you are that is enough of a
[TS]
00:49:05
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change that a regular person has its bigger the regular programming notice
[TS]
00:49:09
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that change again not that I'm saying a big screen is not a good idea cuz I
[TS]
00:49:13
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think it is a good idea but I think that is the type of change
[TS]
00:49:16
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far beyond like a radical new UI or something like that that you put on the
[TS]
00:49:20
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phone which is much harder to do bigger screen I think can revitalize interest
[TS]
00:49:27
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in the iPhone biggest gainers lower-cost a combination of the two because I mean
[TS]
00:49:32
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Apple is behind the screen size wars and we talked about this last time of the
[TS]
00:49:37
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resolution of the stuff what they gonna do in that area but those are technical
[TS]
00:49:41
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details just bottom line is he someone you know when the Samsung s4 comes out
[TS]
00:49:45
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tomorrow whatever day it is going to be the new Galaxy phone its gonna have a
[TS]
00:49:50
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big amazing screen there's going to be bigger and more amazing her than the
[TS]
00:49:55
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iPhone 5 screen and regular people can see that they look at the iPhone 5 they
[TS]
00:50:01
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look at that on the phone and this label that's that's more and more of what they
[TS]
00:50:04
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want it looks better looks like Android phones that you know the big thing now
[TS]
00:50:08
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is it you know
[TS]
00:50:09
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native 1080p 120 like four hundred and sixty dpi or something
[TS]
00:50:13
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these are fairly amazing screens they're still pretty ninth in and yes they're
[TS]
00:50:16
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much bigger and heavier but like that's what I was up against here I think to
[TS]
00:50:21
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revitalize interest in its phone line in particular it's going to have to answer
[TS]
00:50:25
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to that and I think that's pretty much all take to get people the ball back
[TS]
00:50:29
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rolling on that and then their longer-term problem is you know what's
[TS]
00:50:32
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that I speak thing and I kinda figured that out there can do with TVs or
[TS]
00:50:36
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watches are however Karzai whatever that's a wonder I wonder a little bit if
[TS]
00:50:43
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some of this problem is self created in the sense that you know john even
[TS]
00:50:47
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talking for a long time about how poor Apple is at services and if you think
[TS]
00:50:54
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about it you know well as Siri was a brand new thing and it was supposed to
[TS]
00:50:58
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be amazing and it was supposed to cure all of our problems and it ended up
[TS]
00:51:02
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being fraught with problems and it was kind of a disaster but I think I was
[TS]
00:51:08
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successful in terms of getting people interested in its that phone you can
[TS]
00:51:11
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talk even to people bought it
[TS]
00:51:13
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talk to it on the first day played with it and then stopped using it because
[TS]
00:51:17
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it's quite alright I it has served its purpose that point I think people come
[TS]
00:51:21
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out of it with a generally positive like it's a positive experience I heard this
[TS]
00:51:26
◼
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is fun you can talk to I bought this phone you can talk to me my friends at
[TS]
00:51:29
◼
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all areas two days talking to it now I don't use anymore but I'm not sore about
[TS]
00:51:33
◼
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it like I think basically I think syria with a net positive for the iOS platform
[TS]
00:51:38
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in the iPhone in general
[TS]
00:51:40
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but but it started positive it may or may not have been deposited yet Apple
[TS]
00:51:44
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maps which nobody nobody I mean obviously as nerds we understand kind of
[TS]
00:51:51
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the political motivations behind all this but for a regular human you didn't
[TS]
00:51:55
◼
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want it in the first place
[TS]
00:51:56
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suddenly your phone which you previously loved one of the critical aspects of
[TS]
00:52:01
◼
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this phone now socks and you didn't even ask for it and that's why you know I was
[TS]
00:52:06
◼
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6 adoption from most reports I've looked at david smith's in awhile but you know
[TS]
00:52:10
◼
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I was 6 adoption was terrible and so the Google Maps app came out well
[TS]
00:52:16
◼
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negative perception certainly in a lot of people holding back but in the grand
[TS]
00:52:20
◼
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scheme of things it was it was minimal and it hurt them PR was way more than
[TS]
00:52:25
◼
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hurt I was 6 adoption rates I think this is another example of like the positive
[TS]
00:52:30
◼
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a Syrian and eventually like it's like man you leave it and this was an initial
[TS]
00:52:33
◼
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negative but I think the same phenomena happened in initial negative instead of
[TS]
00:52:37
◼
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initial positive but eventually it's like like and now I think by people
[TS]
00:52:42
◼
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buying phones like its transition that hurts its transition you know like you
[TS]
00:52:46
◼
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know or helps you in the history of the transition to series like wow amazing
[TS]
00:52:50
◼
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thing and this helped Apple get people into stores cause people to buy it and
[TS]
00:52:53
◼
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then it was fun
[TS]
00:52:55
◼
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the transition from you know that a bad thing suddenly this isn't a bad thing
[TS]
00:53:00
◼
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and maps are bad and they're going from the maps that were better to the bad
[TS]
00:53:03
◼
►
ones are just I'm getting bad ones but that trickled off to an anyone buying a
[TS]
00:53:06
◼
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phone now you know even though that Apple maps are still not as good as
[TS]
00:53:11
◼
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Google Maps is kind of like oh this is just the maps my phone came with and if
[TS]
00:53:15
◼
►
I don't like them I can try the Google one and you know what's the big deal
[TS]
00:53:19
◼
►
right so I think maybe those two things cancel each other out but I think going
[TS]
00:53:23
◼
►
forward neither one of them are a factor except for maybe reputation whisenand
[TS]
00:53:27
◼
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nerds I I think like they've they've cleared they cleared the PR disaster
[TS]
00:53:33
◼
►
maps and Iran to like now that you know we got to see what the next thing is are
[TS]
00:53:36
◼
►
we gonna have something that's going to be a big negative a big positive they
[TS]
00:53:39
◼
►
need something for the next phone other than just like it's faster slightly but
[TS]
00:53:44
◼
►
I know I'm not really sure that anything to do with the next iPhone although I do
[TS]
00:53:49
◼
►
agree that they need to make screen bigger for at least one of the models
[TS]
00:53:52
◼
►
are they so
[TS]
00:53:53
◼
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just excited to see you know I'm not I'm not entirely sold on the cheaper one
[TS]
00:53:59
◼
►
idea although we should talk about two and a half you saw so I've been talking
[TS]
00:54:04
◼
►
about the the the weird new CPU and the Apple TV that was just released updated
[TS]
00:54:10
◼
►
quietly and shippers has post here up it into our chat thing so that you can see
[TS]
00:54:16
◼
►
it had a post up that they've been taking apart the CPU and it and they
[TS]
00:54:22
◼
►
found to my original theory we should talk about it I believe in episode one
[TS]
00:54:26
◼
►
of the show my original theory was that what you know is originally we thought
[TS]
00:54:31
◼
►
that they were died shrinking the 85 acts and there's really no good reason
[TS]
00:54:36
◼
►
for the Apple TV is a need in a five acts yet maybe if they have future model
[TS]
00:54:41
◼
►
that can do high end games maybe then ok but there was really no good reason for
[TS]
00:54:45
◼
►
10 if I backs we later found out a couple days ago we found out that it is
[TS]
00:54:51
◼
►
indeed not an A five experts it's an A five that is somehow a lot smaller than
[TS]
00:54:55
◼
►
the normally five package show again we speculated ok to die shrink so what we
[TS]
00:55:00
◼
►
gonna do with the new 85 cause the Apple TV doesn't have an Apple TVs to justify
[TS]
00:55:06
◼
►
making a whole separate processor for it so now the the most recent news that we
[TS]
00:55:12
◼
►
have is that the processor and new Apple TV is indeed still in a five is
[TS]
00:55:19
◼
►
substantially smaller than the regular a five but the reason why is his only has
[TS]
00:55:24
◼
►
one CPU core instead of two it's still the same process the believe it's a 32
[TS]
00:55:31
◼
►
nanometer process from Samsung so it still has a manufacturing process just
[TS]
00:55:37
◼
►
now is only one coroner chip now before with the Apple TV I believe didn't we
[TS]
00:55:41
◼
►
say they were they were like burning out one course whether it failed by just
[TS]
00:55:45
◼
►
perfect sense because by the by the time they've been manufacturing do crossword
[TS]
00:55:50
◼
►
for a five social long time the number of ones that are bomb that have one bad
[TS]
00:55:55
◼
►
karma them down now has got to be pretty darn low I mean I guess the question of
[TS]
00:55:59
◼
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like where they just you know it's inefficient use of the ones that weren't
[TS]
00:56:02
◼
►
where one car doesn't work rather they are they literally taking them in and
[TS]
00:56:05
◼
►
and you know burning the fuse is out on the one on one of the course if it was
[TS]
00:56:10
◼
►
the case that they were trying to get things that one court didn't work
[TS]
00:56:14
◼
►
presumably the number of those has dwindled now because they really you
[TS]
00:56:17
◼
►
know they've been making the ship forever so many more like leftovers for
[TS]
00:56:21
◼
►
it but given how few Apple TVs they sell it would probably still be cheaper to
[TS]
00:56:26
◼
►
just give him dual core working chips than it would be to make a separate I'm
[TS]
00:56:31
◼
►
looking at this was the whole reason why the AppleTV CPU changes interesting is
[TS]
00:56:36
◼
►
the theory that they make so few of these it doesn't justify a custom CPU so
[TS]
00:56:41
◼
►
therefore whatever CPU they're using in this is probably gonna be put into a
[TS]
00:56:45
◼
►
future more popular product and so that's that's I think we're considering
[TS]
00:56:50
◼
►
like what could they make with a small single core a five and that to me
[TS]
00:56:57
◼
►
screams low-end iPhone or low and iPad Mini I suppose it's possible it's really
[TS]
00:57:05
◼
►
tough to tell because it's not it's not Herculean effort to and they have been
[TS]
00:57:11
◼
►
so Mr Apple TV soap making you sing of Corey five just for the Apple tea is not
[TS]
00:57:15
◼
►
is not crazy crazy they really have been increasing number of these things that
[TS]
00:57:19
◼
►
they sell and especially if they're whatever they're crazy Grand TV plan it
[TS]
00:57:25
◼
►
keeps getting pushed off into the future for you know presumably content related
[TS]
00:57:29
◼
►
reasons that there may be just playing for the future of the Apple TV and
[TS]
00:57:33
◼
►
unlike the other things that run apps and stuff there's no real reason that
[TS]
00:57:37
◼
►
year after year the Apple TV has to get tremendously faster or they finally got
[TS]
00:57:40
◼
►
up to 1080p like what more does it need to do like it shows video in 1080p you
[TS]
00:57:46
◼
►
can't run apps on it it could be there selling in for the long winter waiting
[TS]
00:57:51
◼
►
for whatever the heck you know and they want to continue to you know have sixty
[TS]
00:57:54
◼
►
percent year-over-year growth on the Apple TV or whatever they were happy for
[TS]
00:57:57
◼
►
their selling a not insignificant number these things maybe now it deserves its
[TS]
00:58:01
◼
►
own chip not a big deal chip just a single for a five single Corey 544 a
[TS]
00:58:07
◼
►
cheaper phone I'm wondering how much cheaper does that make it because the
[TS]
00:58:12
◼
►
cost of a single core fibers dual
[TS]
00:58:14
◼
►
comes down to the area of the check out and like the big cost components in that
[TS]
00:58:19
◼
►
things like I have to imagine like the screen the battery the CPU GPU and the
[TS]
00:58:25
◼
►
case are your big cost components there I'm not sure how much shaving a tiny
[TS]
00:58:29
◼
►
little bit of cost on the CPU is gonna lie is not going to get you over the
[TS]
00:58:32
◼
►
line in terms of low-cost
[TS]
00:58:36
◼
►
I'm not sure I'm not alone but you know if you can shave X percent off of a lot
[TS]
00:58:41
◼
►
of the key components then that I was gonna say in aggregate in my piano it's
[TS]
00:58:46
◼
►
conceivable I mean like do we think that the single-core if I was sure other than
[TS]
00:58:54
◼
►
a low-cost phone I mean motion is not multithreaded so we can kind of look and
[TS]
00:59:01
◼
►
see a torrid pace for animation is multithreaded ok but most of the things
[TS]
00:59:06
◼
►
that are releasing that absurd doing for the most part I think we'd be fine with
[TS]
00:59:12
◼
►
single core for a low end product I think if you look at you know if they're
[TS]
00:59:18
◼
►
trying to shave off dollars and cents here to try to get down to lower price
[TS]
00:59:23
◼
►
points for surviving the iPad Mini is probably the more obvious choice here
[TS]
00:59:27
◼
►
than an iPhone just because the iPhones are still subsidized in most markets so
[TS]
00:59:31
◼
►
they have more room to play with their wares the iPad Mini it they want to get
[TS]
00:59:35
◼
►
that down she ended a five is probably even with this with the smaller version
[TS]
00:59:41
◼
►
I would imagine a five is probably still too much power
[TS]
00:59:46
◼
►
GB using something like a watch I I don't think that would work but I think
[TS]
00:59:52
◼
►
it will be fine as a low-end model 44 even the iPhone or the iPad I'll see you
[TS]
00:59:58
◼
►
think like the iPad Mini I have problems here too because like again I think of
[TS]
01:00:04
◼
►
you know if they want to push you want to push to have any price down to give
[TS]
01:00:08
◼
►
an even lower price one where are they going to get where else they gonna pull
[TS]
01:00:13
◼
►
value out of that cheaper cameras slightly cheaper CPU they can't really
[TS]
01:00:18
◼
►
give it less battery they can't rely on the contrary if they only have one CPU
[TS]
01:00:23
◼
►
core they can give it a little bit better
[TS]
01:00:26
◼
►
like I have I have it easier time thinking that you could shave down a
[TS]
01:00:32
◼
►
phone because it's it's subsidized that you know that you could you could work
[TS]
01:00:36
◼
►
it out so that it ends up looking way cheaper to the customer you just have a
[TS]
01:00:40
◼
►
little bit of cost maybe martin slow I'm not sure how much you can squeeze the
[TS]
01:00:44
◼
►
many with a single Corey 5 it and I'm also not sure that I've never wants to
[TS]
01:00:49
◼
►
take any of its products and go backwards in terms of performance you
[TS]
01:00:54
◼
►
know so can I prove those two alternate theories one of which i think is
[TS]
01:01:01
◼
►
ridiculous and other i think is marginally ridiculous 24 interrupt you
[TS]
01:01:06
◼
►
that's probably true so one of the means what if the whole point of this and and
[TS]
01:01:12
◼
►
one of you guys just inferred it a second ago what is the point of this
[TS]
01:01:15
◼
►
this chip is physically smaller Zanotti so the whole point was one of the whole
[TS]
01:01:22
◼
►
point was either to increase battery volume in the same size case or
[TS]
01:01:26
◼
►
alternatively what if we are finally getting our iPhone Nano that we've we
[TS]
01:01:30
◼
►
used to talk about constantly and then gave up on if you really want to space
[TS]
01:01:35
◼
►
back to you you just ranked 29 metres or get in till 2022 space back that's the
[TS]
01:01:41
◼
►
way to do it you don't get your car and stick the 32 like it if space but you
[TS]
01:01:46
◼
►
know I'm more inclined to believe the cost is the reason that you take a 32
[TS]
01:01:50
◼
►
nanometer process that you already have your manufacturers are now have a lot of
[TS]
01:01:53
◼
►
experience with really good yields not pushing the limits of technology to give
[TS]
01:01:58
◼
►
me one of the little bit cheaper but if you run into space back if you want to
[TS]
01:02:02
◼
►
drive by 49 or something you did you get this much easier to get that space but
[TS]
01:02:07
◼
►
going through a process I mean this
[TS]
01:02:09
◼
►
20 nanometers seems like it's in the cards for 2013 for Apple products from
[TS]
01:02:14
◼
►
you know Taiwan Semiconductor or whoever they gonna do that and if the Intel
[TS]
01:02:19
◼
►
things come through maybe that's not going to happen this year maybe next
[TS]
01:02:21
◼
►
year but if that isn't just a pipe dream but I think that's the way it space back
[TS]
01:02:26
◼
►
will you see that that's the easiest way to get space back but it's also more
[TS]
01:02:31
◼
►
expensive way to get space back is not right but it's a it's an expensive
[TS]
01:02:35
◼
►
anyway like it's not like you're gonna stick it there
[TS]
01:02:37
◼
►
forever like that the train is going along and like this is the year that
[TS]
01:02:41
◼
►
were Apple all the other phone manufacturers are already at 28 or lower
[TS]
01:02:44
◼
►
the Android big Android guys already have phones that you know I have 20
[TS]
01:02:48
◼
►
nanometers quad-core things with 1080p screens on them like they're they're
[TS]
01:02:52
◼
►
outclassing Apple hardware in all respects with the exception of power
[TS]
01:02:56
◼
►
consumption but they make up for it by having a bigger battery because they
[TS]
01:02:58
◼
►
have bigger screens right so you know it it's gonna happen anyway Apple's gonna
[TS]
01:03:03
◼
►
have to make the transition if you gonna do that you wait to put out your iPhone
[TS]
01:03:06
◼
►
Nano until all your components shrink down and I believe also like shrinking
[TS]
01:03:11
◼
►
we always talk about the CPUs and GPUs as well and whatever other components
[TS]
01:03:17
◼
►
inside there not many but there are other ones and some of them I think
[TS]
01:03:19
◼
►
Anandtech had a good article about the the process used for the cell radios
[TS]
01:03:24
◼
►
which are limited by their various analog things that go into them but
[TS]
01:03:28
◼
►
those could stand to be mean that's what you know the first LTE chipsets were not
[TS]
01:03:33
◼
►
great and sucked up a lot of battery there are other places where you can get
[TS]
01:03:36
◼
►
some savings by shrinks or just you know even if you had a 20 nanometers CPU of
[TS]
01:03:40
◼
►
all the rest of your chips are family like 45 are 65 or some crazy size that
[TS]
01:03:46
◼
►
can make you said as well so there's no bring bring all the internal components
[TS]
01:03:51
◼
►
of your mobile thing along on a train of continual process shrinks I think you
[TS]
01:03:56
◼
►
can get to your iPhone Nano with that technique and that's this may be the
[TS]
01:04:01
◼
►
only way you can get there because otherwise if you just take the internal
[TS]
01:04:04
◼
►
exile like there's a lot of room left over in the iPhone 5 as it is and just
[TS]
01:04:08
◼
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shrinking the screen is not going to have any that's going to hurt you if
[TS]
01:04:11
◼
►
you're in for a battery in there so I'm not sure the iPhone that it was a
[TS]
01:04:15
◼
►
concept really makes much sense and if it does I think they'll get there by
[TS]
01:04:20
◼
►
shrinking not by chopping of course thing to like just demand might not
[TS]
01:04:25
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really be there for that I mean people want their smartphone screens to be big
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01:04:28
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and I think I think the any Apple will very well address the marketing people
[TS]
01:04:34
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who want to keep it smart phones small with the regular sized iPhone and and I
[TS]
01:04:40
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really don't think they're gonna go big only in the product line but I don't
[TS]
01:04:45
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think they have to go smaller than the iPhone 5 size really I think they might
[TS]
01:04:50
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a big only I cannot see the iPhone sex having a larger screen than the five and
[TS]
01:04:57
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then not offering a small one except for spy still selling the iPhone 5s well the
[TS]
01:05:00
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only reason they could the only way they could do that I think would be if the
[TS]
01:05:04
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screen was bigger but not like a ton bigger and I'm not expecting that make
[TS]
01:05:10
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phablet will but but the problem is if they don't really make a substantial
[TS]
01:05:14
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jump that it's not gonna really served him very well in the reasons why they
[TS]
01:05:19
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should be the big screen in the first place it's not gonna really stand up
[TS]
01:05:21
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well in a store next to these giant Android phones it's not gonna
[TS]
01:05:25
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potentially replace the need for an iPad for some people are at least they they
[TS]
01:05:30
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would think that they would buy that it would stand up better in the store just
[TS]
01:05:33
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a little bit bigger I mean is the question we talked about last week it's
[TS]
01:05:37
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like you just make it bigger the same res which is what we also I believe that
[TS]
01:05:42
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we completely adequate to give them the boost they need of having something
[TS]
01:05:45
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bigger or do you bite the bullet and actually you know whether it's 1080p or
[TS]
01:05:49
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pick a new canonical Rezko's about the Hindu konaga residents with the iPad I
[TS]
01:05:55
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guarantee you'll do it again sometime in the history of iOS you know before the
[TS]
01:05:58
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company goes out of business and heat death of the universe there will be new
[TS]
01:06:01
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resolution besides you know 1024 by 768 points and 15 phone is a need to do with
[TS]
01:06:07
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the iPhone 5 as well like that will happen is just a question of when the
[TS]
01:06:11
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question now is it too soon they just went off on it too soon to that the way
[TS]
01:06:16
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generation to pump it out again but that's going to happen and I i could see
[TS]
01:06:20
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them doing that sooner rather than later if they start feeling the pinch ya but
[TS]
01:06:25
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if they only make one size iPhone then like a magic pill made one size laptop
[TS]
01:06:30
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like what size would that be probably 13 right and then then you'll do you miss
[TS]
01:06:35
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out on the great value of the 15 in the 1100 if you look at the phones like if
[TS]
01:06:41
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they're gonna keep having just one model for the foreseeable future after make
[TS]
01:06:45
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the next one bigger say then they're missing out on all the greatness in
[TS]
01:06:50
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product design all the sales all the goodwill that would come from the people
[TS]
01:06:54
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who would want the smaller phones
[TS]
01:06:56
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25 we have now compared to other big funds at least and people who would want
[TS]
01:07:01
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even bigger phones like 20 phablets
[TS]
01:07:03
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its I think ultimately as this market matures which I think it's pretty safe
[TS]
01:07:08
◼
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to say the smartphone market is premature at this point I think they
[TS]
01:07:13
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have to go to multiple sizes I was I was on my 2013 to-do list you know putting
[TS]
01:07:19
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on diversified the iPhone line and that means not just keep selling the old one
[TS]
01:07:22
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as well as your different size so yeah like the reason I say that is not
[TS]
01:07:27
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inconceivable that because that's what happens I'm over so long there is one
[TS]
01:07:30
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iPhone and there's the older iPhones the older iPhone still our needs and what
[TS]
01:07:33
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I've been saying they need to do with diversified line by not doing that by
[TS]
01:07:36
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having you know there's actually not a one iPhone there's actually two iPhones
[TS]
01:07:40
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and possibly some older one and what if what if they're single Corey five is how
[TS]
01:07:44
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they do that you know you can combine them both and say I where diversifying
[TS]
01:07:49
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the line we're getting a bigger screen and the way we're diversifying is that
[TS]
01:07:52
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the one with the small screen cheap on exactly which would disappoint the
[TS]
01:07:55
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people who want a smartphone its full performance with a should feel the same
[TS]
01:07:58
◼
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pain that iPod Touch users have had to feel we just want all the good things
[TS]
01:08:02
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but you can never get all the good things so that they have so many options
[TS]
01:08:07
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for how they can diversify their line with the just wanna do inside there also
[TS]
01:08:10
◼
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are trying to do it on cost them in how they come out with three of them I can
[TS]
01:08:14
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go right from having one phone to having three funds like it it's conceivable all
[TS]
01:08:18
◼
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these things are possible I don't know which one of them it's hard to read what
[TS]
01:08:22
◼
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they think the issue is we all think they need a bigger screen does Apple
[TS]
01:08:26
◼
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believe that I think at this point probably do some of us think they can
[TS]
01:08:31
◼
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benefit from a lower cost one that I can imagine the bean counters Apple going
[TS]
01:08:34
◼
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you know it actually that's something that you as a customer but actually we
[TS]
01:08:38
◼
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boris for Apple as a business or not gonna do that you know I have a hard
[TS]
01:08:42
◼
►
time seeing into that calculus so to take this sort of kind of full circle
[TS]
01:08:49
◼
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does that mean that in order to continue to what was the Steve Jobs -ism like to
[TS]
01:08:56
◼
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delight and amaze our customers whatever was in order to keep people talk about
[TS]
01:09:01
◼
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the iPhone is one really mean what I really mean do they not do a 5s this
[TS]
01:09:05
◼
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this year do they instead do either a six or do they do a 5s and a iPhone plus
[TS]
01:09:12
◼
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whatever you guys called it
[TS]
01:09:13
◼
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is that enough to get something non ex on something unexpected enough to get
[TS]
01:09:19
◼
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people talking positively about the iPhone again that's a timing issue I
[TS]
01:09:23
◼
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think like if they could they definitely would like to say that right now like if
[TS]
01:09:27
◼
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they if they had planned enough in advance and for seeing this like they
[TS]
01:09:33
◼
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would definitely do that like maybe like maybe that you know I just don't think
[TS]
01:09:37
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that the current situation they find themselves in they planned on 23 years
[TS]
01:09:43
◼
►
out and that's the kind of planning you have to have to have to say we're going
[TS]
01:09:46
◼
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to go from you know this 404 s 55 s cadens actually we're not going to do
[TS]
01:09:49
◼
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that with the five were gonna do for for us I'm gonna do 596 start planning now
[TS]
01:09:53
◼
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cuz they had they would have to start playing it very long time ago I think
[TS]
01:09:57
◼
►
they would really benefit from that but they didn't start playing 23 years ago I
[TS]
01:10:01
◼
►
don't think big they're capable I think like they just got a ship what they have
[TS]
01:10:05
◼
►
which is going to be a 5s
[TS]
01:10:06
◼
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gone and we don't know like the problem is where we have incomplete information
[TS]
01:10:12
◼
►
so we don't know all the hard stuff like whatever whatever the heck else they're
[TS]
01:10:16
◼
►
doing this not a phone is not an iPad presumably there's something for several
[TS]
01:10:21
◼
►
things on various burners in various states of whatever any of those things
[TS]
01:10:24
◼
►
if they come to a boil
[TS]
01:10:26
◼
►
you know make this much less of an issue we got the 5s but we also got that Apple
[TS]
01:10:32
◼
►
hover car no one cares that it's free in five
[TS]
01:10:34
◼
►
like whatever crazy other things whether it's watches or TV stuff for you know
[TS]
01:10:40
◼
►
new services are they buy some other company like so many other things can
[TS]
01:10:45
◼
►
not make this an issue but if there's nothing new for this entire year and
[TS]
01:10:49
◼
►
they just have the 5s and make all their products better in the way that we
[TS]
01:10:53
◼
►
always expected to make things better I think that will not be a great year for
[TS]
01:10:58
◼
►
Apple in terms of their perception in the industry although I would argue that
[TS]
01:11:04
◼
►
they have liked grover talks a lot about the concept of momentum and I would
[TS]
01:11:12
◼
►
argue right now russian reaction yet that Apple has so much negative
[TS]
01:11:18
◼
►
momentum attraction and the press or and people's perceptions of how they're
[TS]
01:11:22
◼
►
doing they have so much negativity around them right now and and skepticism
[TS]
01:11:28
◼
►
and doubt that I don't think anything they released this year is going to fix
[TS]
01:11:32
◼
►
that I don't think it can be fixed they can release a flying unicorn watch
[TS]
01:11:36
◼
►
toaster tomorrow and and it wouldn't change anybody's mind everyone if they
[TS]
01:11:42
◼
►
released some new product that was actually good to actually be good that
[TS]
01:11:48
◼
►
would that would turn it around the only product they will come out of the year
[TS]
01:11:51
◼
►
and it would just be like a bomb but the only product that they've released in
[TS]
01:11:55
◼
►
recent memory that everyone thought was good from the start was the iPhone and
[TS]
01:11:58
◼
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I'm not ever gonna nothings gonna stop in like net net coming out of it in the
[TS]
01:12:02
◼
►
same naysayers that everybody having an iPad had them the iPhone is probably
[TS]
01:12:06
◼
►
have the most positive reception but even that had like oil tonight sporadic
[TS]
01:12:09
◼
►
but you're not gonna be a phone maker me you know you're not going to just walk
[TS]
01:12:13
◼
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in like everything's got the negative it doesn't matter like the net out of that
[TS]
01:12:16
◼
►
was exciting new thing Apple's exciting doing exciting new thing that's risky
[TS]
01:12:21
◼
►
and interesting and i wanna know what's going on with it right whereas just keep
[TS]
01:12:26
◼
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making better Max and better iPads and iPhones year after year some which are
[TS]
01:12:33
◼
►
you know are not as interesting as like the best phones from best Android phones
[TS]
01:12:37
◼
►
that's that's boring and the worst thing I want to be as boring I mean you know
[TS]
01:12:42
◼
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if you even if they come with the watch and everyone says it's piece of crap
[TS]
01:12:45
◼
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that's more exciting than not coming out with a lot right and the net at the end
[TS]
01:12:50
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of the year I think would be positive from that position like everyone hates
[TS]
01:12:53
◼
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it but who knows it's kind of crazy and it's got this one interesting thing that
[TS]
01:12:56
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we didn't think of it you know
[TS]
01:12:58
◼
►
uncertainty and excitement is more interesting than just boring iteration
[TS]
01:13:02
◼
►
of the same things although I don't understand the finance industry like it
[TS]
01:13:05
◼
►
when they want during iteration when they want a gigantic machine that turns
[TS]
01:13:08
◼
►
out money but I guess they want explosive growth so they were looking
[TS]
01:13:11
◼
►
for the next hockey stick graph and the grass for the phones and I pattern on
[TS]
01:13:15
◼
►
hockey sticky enough for them
[TS]
01:13:20
◼
►
horses grab some may seem to like their stuff but forgot Pendergraph that should
[TS]
01:13:27
◼
►
be like wow small smiles looking at growth curve it's great and apples
[TS]
01:13:30
◼
►
dominate the tablet industry and you know this great things and the story is
[TS]
01:13:34
◼
►
still Android tablets to surpass iPads next year which may actually be true but
[TS]
01:13:40
◼
►
it's like you know they have two great products and hockey stick trajectories
[TS]
01:13:43
◼
►
that the phone and iPad and that's not enough was not enough writers it used
[TS]
01:13:48
◼
►
those things you look more attractive when they had like no competitors and
[TS]
01:13:52
◼
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going back to acacia said earlier this is Ben as we discussed last episode this
[TS]
01:13:57
◼
►
is like a draft blog post my head for weeks and I just haven't written out but
[TS]
01:14:01
◼
►
not all over it for you guys here I feel like Apple's next big product you know
[TS]
01:14:07
◼
►
all the press and maybe the public they wanted to be some gadget they say oh I
[TS]
01:14:12
◼
►
wanted to be a watch or I want a toaster or I want to have a car that's not a
[TS]
01:14:19
◼
►
gadget gadget he its people who want her cars are probably people who wants my
[TS]
01:14:23
◼
►
watch is also so everyone has to be some kind of hardware gadget a TV set to be
[TS]
01:14:28
◼
►
the problem is boring product ever you know they all these things and there was
[TS]
01:14:34
◼
►
there is also speaking of grouper good discussion of this on talk show with a
[TS]
01:14:38
◼
►
guy English and grammar last week but I think Apple's next big product shouldn't
[TS]
01:14:44
◼
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be any of those things it should be dramatically improving their services
[TS]
01:14:50
◼
►
and their software in that order and and i know i mean I know it's not going to
[TS]
01:14:57
◼
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and it would make anybody except users and nerds happy you know it's not flashy
[TS]
01:15:03
◼
►
it's not very newsworthy most of the time like it's not gonna it's not going
[TS]
01:15:08
◼
►
to fix their perception but what their products need the most is significant
[TS]
01:15:15
◼
►
substantial progress in services and quality of software and that I would
[TS]
01:15:22
◼
►
much rather they take what they already have what they've already started all
[TS]
01:15:28
◼
►
these different things they have going on these platforms just make them really
[TS]
01:15:32
◼
►
great make the services better and improve the quality of the software I
[TS]
01:15:37
◼
►
would much rather have that much we know that but but you're right that the
[TS]
01:15:44
◼
►
market does not demand that even though the markets better off with that but the
[TS]
01:15:48
◼
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gadget they would see it it's like a shark stop moving my god they're
[TS]
01:15:53
◼
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retrenching and in some respects the Apple as like they're a little tiny bit
[TS]
01:16:00
◼
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them if they don't think they recognize this from a technical perspective at
[TS]
01:16:03
◼
►
least expect the perspective that's what the maps thing was about its like the
[TS]
01:16:08
◼
►
future the future is more of this network in active service things not
[TS]
01:16:12
◼
►
less we need to take control of this we need to take the reins and you know they
[TS]
01:16:15
◼
►
screwed up read maps but at least they recognize that is not a tenable
[TS]
01:16:19
◼
►
long-term strategy to rely on your your most bitter rival for an essential
[TS]
01:16:25
◼
►
service that your phone provides so you know we all understand why they added
[TS]
01:16:28
◼
►
him at least this some recognition that they realized that speech recognition
[TS]
01:16:32
◼
►
could be another similar issue with them not really knowing that technology but
[TS]
01:16:36
◼
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if they if they if they woke up one day and fully realized how screwed they are
[TS]
01:16:43
◼
►
on their inability to network services and how and how important they're going
[TS]
01:16:47
◼
►
to be in the future they would have to sign themselves up for a multi-year sort
[TS]
01:16:52
◼
►
of dark period of getting you know figuring that stuff out kind of like the
[TS]
01:16:57
◼
►
multi-year dark period coming out of the nineties where they had the whole crappy
[TS]
01:17:00
◼
►
oster they had to read
[TS]
01:17:02
◼
►
and they had to keep the company in business and then start work on the next
[TS]
01:17:05
◼
►
big thing and they did you know they came out of it and when gangbusters
[TS]
01:17:08
◼
►
right they probably need another period like that to get their house in order on
[TS]
01:17:16
◼
►
the server side stuff because it's not like we're in a future where that
[TS]
01:17:20
◼
►
service I stuff is going to be less important you know there's no going back
[TS]
01:17:23
◼
►
and so these need to get really good at it or get really chummy with someone
[TS]
01:17:27
◼
►
whose interests are aligned with theirs who is good at it and that used to be
[TS]
01:17:30
◼
►
cool but it's not anymore so you know i mean all these reasons are like people
[TS]
01:17:34
◼
►
keep saying that was getting slammed for illogical reasons or like oh they making
[TS]
01:17:39
◼
►
all this money hand over fist walter is crazy and some respects the like the
[TS]
01:17:44
◼
►
negativity that that is reflected in the the press about them is like cumulation
[TS]
01:17:52
◼
►
of all the negative things that I had been thinking about Apple had like the
[TS]
01:17:55
◼
►
past 10 years but at the time I was thinking no one else agree with them
[TS]
01:17:59
◼
►
like Apple going gangbusters everybody loves it all our products are great and
[TS]
01:18:02
◼
►
you be like but but service i'd this may be like what are you talking about their
[TS]
01:18:05
◼
►
stuff you know and now it's kind of all coming home to roost and maybe maybe
[TS]
01:18:10
◼
►
that's his projection maybe they're they're being negative numbers but I
[TS]
01:18:13
◼
►
don't think the current negative view of Apple is that crazy I mean it's kind of
[TS]
01:18:18
◼
►
crazy and term I don't know the details of the finances of evidence like you see
[TS]
01:18:22
◼
►
they're making tons of money like they're not going out of business
[TS]
01:18:24
◼
►
they're successful company that will run they have lots of people like all things
[TS]
01:18:27
◼
►
girly post again and again but the same time I see where all their strategic
[TS]
01:18:31
◼
►
weaknesses are and I see that it's not like you can snap your fingers and make
[TS]
01:18:34
◼
►
the strategic weaknesses go away and even making an apple new new Apple TV or
[TS]
01:18:38
◼
►
a watch does not make all those weaknesses go away just staves off the
[TS]
01:18:42
◼
►
inevitable for a little bit longer in fact a new gadget or a new platform
[TS]
01:18:46
◼
►
would probably make a lot of these problems worse because here's here's
[TS]
01:18:53
◼
►
more things that require software and services they're having trouble keeping
[TS]
01:18:57
◼
►
up with i mean like they're presumably they're they're reaping the benefits to
[TS]
01:19:01
◼
►
go groups is like okay well we do have a new TV thing presumably you know it's
[TS]
01:19:07
◼
►
based on iOS and we can leverage the App Store and we can leverage I club like
[TS]
01:19:10
◼
►
summary there they are getting a common core of stuff that they work on
[TS]
01:19:13
◼
►
that makes all their products better it's not like you know they're going to
[TS]
01:19:16
◼
►
go out and make something totally unrelated where they can use any of
[TS]
01:19:19
◼
►
their tech or platform so it's a marginal increase but I like the thing
[TS]
01:19:23
◼
►
that makes us feel bad about us like is like a distraction I could you just get
[TS]
01:19:27
◼
►
the crap that you have now to work right like stop watch stuff like you just you
[TS]
01:19:31
◼
►
take it you don't we have this crazy perception that probably isn't rooted in
[TS]
01:19:34
◼
►
reality of them taken off their triple-a players and putting them on whatever the
[TS]
01:19:39
◼
►
bigger projects like the best most awesome iPhone people and put them on
[TS]
01:19:43
◼
►
the upper watch right and like now like you don't put those guys off we need
[TS]
01:19:47
◼
►
good people like we felt like we had like that when they you know seemingly
[TS]
01:19:51
◼
►
pulled like the big good awesome important people off Pakistan for a
[TS]
01:19:54
◼
►
while to be all hands on deck with the you know I S in the App Store just the
[TS]
01:19:58
◼
►
right business decision but like they have finite resources and we don't want
[TS]
01:20:02
◼
►
them to be there was nothing on the talk show episode we don't want them to be
[TS]
01:20:05
◼
►
spread too thin like they don't have an infinite number of Awesometown to people
[TS]
01:20:09
◼
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and with with the financials and the share price and everything going down it
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may be harder to acquire and retain those amazing people so maybe you don't
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have somebody to spread around is used to mean it's that's a major problem for
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them is the size of the company is talent wise it's more than it needs to
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be they have very limited resources they are taking a look at these things and
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01:20:34
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you're right that the business case for pulling a snow leopard Snow Leopard they
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basically spent what was at eighteen months development of it not adding a
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lot of user physical features you know the whole the whole message of snow
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leopard was gonna rebuild a lot of the foundation of this ad things you know
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really important foundational API's like Grand Central Dispatch gonna really make
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the foundation better and awesome and fix a lot of bugs rather than adding a
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whole bunch of new user facing features and mountain lion was kind of like that
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you know compared to Lyon but I i feel like they need to have something need to
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have a period like that for the for services and for all there's hope you
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like a company-wide period of like two years improving the stuff we have but
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you're right that business wise and market wise
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that will never be a smart idea to do well they could afford to do it on the
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Mac because all eyes were on iOS that's true so that's one that's one reprieve I
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mean there's no excuse for the services because like like I guess you're never
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gonna be all I clogs that's the nature of services is like an underpinning
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infrastructure but if they know that their game Jersey third platform but if
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they if they did I will be off Iowa's briefly and then those guys could do you
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know Iowa State which will be there Snow Leopard or whatever right but thats I
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don't think that's going to happen two platforms is plenty for them they're
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much more likely to me maybe they get away with it and I'm like you know the
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watch your TV or some other thing where it gets its own Fork of the OS is still
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iOS based or whatever and then you have time to sort of you know ten down the
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finalists but I don't think service is a much more dire than than the OS think
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they're on a pretty good track with the OS revisions I think there are ready and
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01:22:28
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refinement mode on iOS yeah there's a couple of major things they need to add
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here and there but the service is a really big deal just because it's not
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something you do by snapping your fingers in like there they can have a
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01:22:40
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snow leopard release of services to cure their problems that's it's much it's a
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problem that can't be fixed in 12 to 18 months exactly and it requires a lot of
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substantial changes stansel investments in infrastructure and talented does that
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and you know really really big shift and big investments that just take a long
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time even if they were a hundred percent prioritize on that right now right this
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second that just takes a long time to build up so if they want to do that fast
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01:23:06
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here's my advice to them by Facebook shut down use the talent to have enough
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money to buy facebook probably not might be closed her big investment to remove
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facebook from the earth which is it a general good take all those people
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mostly gonna leave and go off and do other things but enough of them will
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stay then they know how to do it like they're not Google caliber people but
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they know how to run a service that people use that has better reliability
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of an iPod right so yeah that's why I would've
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01:23:40
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think like it they would have bought Twitter me now I don't think it would
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sell at a price they tried rightfully if they would have bought Twitter they
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would have had a lot of that type of town a lot of experience and
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infrastructure I'm not but but not you know certainly probably better than
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whatever happens doing now
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01:23:59
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mean isn't a lot of iCloud still outsourced to Microsoft as your and I
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01:24:04
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was gonna say exactly that I don't think microsoft is terribly capable as a host
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on like Amazon whom has become very capable as a host but I wonder and I was
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01:24:15
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going to ask you guys and so you brought it up I wonder if Apple and Microsoft
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could find a common enemy in Google and perhaps the two of them could from
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belong together in order to improve their services to the point that they're
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01:24:27
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actually that's kind of what they're doing isn't it like you have to wait for
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01:24:33
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Microsoft to be much to a fallen much even lower than it has now for them to
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ever because Microsoft is in the same situation as Apple kind of where they
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01:24:42
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both recognize that Google does that server side stuff better just a
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01:24:45
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Microsoft has been in typical Microsoft fashion and much more sort of head down
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01:24:51
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ok this is an area where we are not strong working in true hire you know the
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01:24:55
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guy who did Lotus Notes and we're gonna or revamp our entire service site
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architecture to be serious about this and like Apple hasn't done all that are
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01:25:02
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these not as publicly who knows what they're doing internally but it's
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01:25:05
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clearly not a top line item you know so I don't see Microsoft as a big win for
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Apple to cooperate in this regard and I also don't see Microsoft ever stooping
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01:25:18
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to that level and say we're just gonna be your help in the battle against
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01:25:21
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Microsoft Google and Microsoft still wants to be a big player even though we
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01:25:26
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all kind of recognize that it's not going to be well everyone except
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01:25:29
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Microsoft
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